6 The IKN Weekly, issue 761 — Dec 18, 2023
The IKN Weekly
Week 761, December 17th 2023
Contents
This Week: Trade heads-up, In today’s edition, Bare bones #1 of three, Gold has a good
week.
Fundamental Analysis: Buying Argonaut Gold (AR.to) (ARNGF).
Stocks to Follow: Argonaut Gold (AR.to), Minera Alamos (MAI.v), Equinox Gold (EQX)
(EQX.to), Fortuna Silver (FSM) (FVI.to), Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v), Aldebaran Resources (ALDE.v),
Amerigo Resources (ARG.to), Contango ORE (CTGO), SolGold (SOLG.to) (SOLG.L), Provenance
Gold (PAU.cse).
The Copper Basket: Overview, Solaris Resources (SLS.to), Atacama Copper (ACOP.v).
Producer Basket: Overview, Wesdome Gold (WDO.to (WDOFF).
The TinyCaps Basket: Overview, South Star (STS.v).
Regional Politics: Argentina: President Milei devalues the Peso.
Market Watching: AbraSilver revisited (ABRA.v), Another on Heliostar (HSTR.v),
Buenaventura (BVN) and Antofagasta (ANTO.L).
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
Trade heads-up
I’m a buyer of Argonaut Gold (AR.to), the risk is reduced and there’s plenty of potential near-
term reward from here. Definitely not falling in love with this trade though, in a perfect world
I’ll be out by mid-January and leaving enough on the bone for buyers of my shares at the same
time.
In today’s edition
Bare bones edition today
Buying AR.to
The word around Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v) and its appeals hearing is getting interesting.
A few other things today, but it’s a light edition all round.
Bare bones #1 of three
A reminder that due to travel and vacation downtime, this edition as well as the next two
editions of The IKN Weekly have been stripped down to their bare bones. However, we do get
some work done and even announce a new trade today, one that should be opened by this
time next weekend.
Gold has a good week
It may not have ended on Friday in the way that the fussy goldbug community demanded, but
it was still a great week for gold and for all the right reasons, too. Last weekend’s edition
rounded off this way:
I see no reason to abandon the bull gold thesis on the back of what may turn
out to be an anomalous week of trading. It wouldn’t take much from the
1
upcoming macro prompts to see gold catching a bid once again.
Even if it’s a case of how even a stopped clock is right twice a day, that fitted nicely into what
we saw last week:
It is the way of the metals and mining market; they can change direction on a dime and the
reasons for Thursday’s mini rocket back over the U$2,000/oz line, as well as trade floor
sentiment, I neatly summed up in this Reuters report (1):
Dec 13 (Reuters) - Gold prices rose more than 1% on Wednesday after the U.S.
Federal Reserve flagged an end to its interest rate hike cycle and indicated possible
rate cuts next year.
And…
The U.S. central bank held interest rates steady on Wednesday. A near unanimous 17
of 19 Fed officials project the policy rate will be lower by the end of 2024 than it is now,
with the median projection showing the rate falling three-quarters of a percentage point
from the current 5.25%-5.50%.
And…
"The Fed's acknowledgement of inflationary pressures continuing to come down has
raised interest rate cut expectations, which is seeing a dramatic drop in yields and
dollar, and a subsequent rise in gold and silver," said David Meger, director of metals
trading at High Ridge Futures.
"We believe the current upward move in gold is a sustained rally."
This desk agrees completely with Mr. Meger (whoever he may be). The volte face made by Jay
Powell last week was impressive and has the market discounting at least 4 rate cuts in 2024
which may even start as early as January. Quite the admission from someone who claimed the
Fed wasn’t even “thinking about thinking about” cuts just a few short weeks ago. As for its
consequences, we’ve been over this many times before and while it’s going to be good for the
industrial metals as long as the Fed gets the timing right in exact Goldilocks style, precious
metals and gold in particular seem like a heads-we-win-tails-we-don’t-lose bet on the market in
2024. We trimmed our copper positions and let the gold trades ride for exactly this reason, as
well as building some cash treasury in order to run some trades on some more gold exposure},
come the time. And now as the time has come, we’re going to dso just that via a stock that has
enough of its ducks in line to warrant a speculative trade on the next few weeks at market.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Buying Argonaut Gold (AR.to) (ARNGF)
This isn’t going to be a long note, as for one thing today is a “bare bones” edition that comes in
the middle of doing a lot of other non-work related things as we kick back, enjoy family time
and get to introduce our son to his grandparents and uncles. But for another, we’ve done the
legwork on this trade and more than anything else we’ve been waiting for the right set of
circumstances. While this isn’t a riskless trade and timing is never going to be perfect, enough
of the ducks are now in line to open on Argonaut Gold (AR.to) (ARNGF).
2
For the main argument, please see IKN757 dated November 19th and the main fundies note
that day, “Argonaut Gold (AR.to) (ARNGF) and an impending trade set-up”. Since then AR has
done what we expected it to do and run an equity financing. We went over the details of the
placement in IKN759 dated December 3rd (in fact, 4th) and the Market Watching note “Monday
update: Argonaut Gold (AR.to) runs a bought deal”. One of the pending criteria for a trade was
to see that financing close on time, fully filled with the small overallotment facility fully taken.
That went exactly as expected (2):
That’s good and, as an extra ball bonus, we note insiders participated in the financing with CEO
Richard Young taking $250k of the placement. Finally, we wanted to wait until Canadian Tax
Loss Selling season was out the way and while there is a week’s worth of action left to go (in
fact ten days, but the brief post-Christmas window is normally not that busy), the worst of the
weather is probably behind us now. Even if there is some extra downside in the very-near-term
this weekend’s sub-40c Canadian price is attractive and the right price to find a liquid entry
point.
Therefore, it’s time to bite the bullet and open on Argonaut Gold (AR.to) again, after the
previous failed trade and a couple of years of watching as it went lower and lower still. With
Magino now in official commercial production and its Florida Canyon mine recuperating lost
production levels, the timing looks right to ride a near-term upwave.
However, this is nobody’s idea of a long-term buy and hold, this is all about buying in
December and hopefully riding some near-term momentum before flipping it back to the market
before its 4q23 and year-end financials are filed in late Febor early March. That’s the strict time
limit to this trade, as I believe that its production figures will impress the market more than its
balance sheet and I want to be gone before the financial reality of Q4 is known. On that score,
there is a bit of a risk that AR doesn’t pre-announce production and here’s the background:
AR.to announced preliminary production numbers in January 2021 for its 4q20 period, but
didn’t do so for 4q21 or 4q22, preferring in the last two years to stick with protocol and
announce its production and sales along with its financials. It’s up to AR to do as it sees fit, of
course, but any early production announcement for the 4q23 period is likely to be bullish for the
share price. It’s something that could provide an early boost for the company into the New Year
and one of the wild cards we’re looking for in this trade. To re-cap our position, we believe AR
will be keen to make a good impression as early as possible and what’s more, we’re now seeing
junior mining companies such as McEwen Mining (MUX) announce intra-quarter production
results in an attempt to woo new shareholders. It would suit AR to jump on the same
bandwagon and assuming it does, the bet is that it provides a useful liquidity moment to sell
into new money.
Here’s a reminder of how we see some of the most important numbers, these charts last seen
in IKN759:
AR.to: Working Capital per qtr
300
275
250
225
200
175
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
-25
3 -50
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
AR.to: Cash treasury per qtr
250 U$m
225
200
175
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
source company filings
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
The closing of the financing means AR has plenty of cash treasury, but that working cap
position is still somewhat fragile according to our model. We’ll see how it goes, but I don’t want
to risk holding this through earnings. As for the share count…
AR.to: Shares Out
4
05.971 92.081 17.081
27.092 67.492 00.013 46.013 91.113 91.113 37.223 58.233 58.667 81.838 48.838 64.468
05.468
91.8701
1200
1100
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
source: company filings/IKN ests
serahs
fo
snoillim
…we’re sticking with the estimate we made in IKN759, it’s going to be around 1.08Bn shares
out by the end of the year, giving AR.to a market cap of C$427m, or U$325m using the OTC
ticker closing price this weekend (ARNGF). That means Magino still has to work and work well
in order to support a sizeable equity valuation and it bears repeating, this is far from a risk-free
trade so significant part of the risk management is keeping exposure to a minimal amount of
time. AR is far from out of the woods at Magino, but there’s enough in the tanks to at least give
an impression of financial stability for a few months. So to labour the point, here’s the list of
pros and cons we recognized back in IKN757 and repeated in IKN759:
So there are pros and cons to a trade. Pros include:
1) The share price is cheap and if Argonaut can get Magino up, running and in solid positive
cash flow territory, the rally is a near-guarantee.
2) Magino may be late and it’s capex blowout painful, but it’s now in commercial production and
Q4 will be its first real quarter.
3) With the benefit of an improving Florida Canyon, we expect AR to post good production
numbers for the current quarter.
4) It has plenty of backers and as long as it can get over the near-term glitches and financial
weakness, Magino promises to be a good, profitable long-life mine ina top jurisdiction. Costs are
now embedded and AR can start looking to the asset to provide financial returns.
Cons include:
1) The balance sheet is fragile, cash is tight. The recent sale of a 1% NSR will help alleviate
things, but working capital was negative and will likely remain so at end 4q23, there’s no way
around the potential liquidity issues.
2) With over 860m shares out already, AR has diluted its long-term holders bigtime and we may
see further equity raising.
3) Cash costs may not drop to the levels promised by a fully functioning Magino immediately. As
such, cash flow from its operations is not going to cover the gaps for at least a couple of quarters.
4) AR has had a torrid time of it and the recent selling has only exacerbated that. There’s a high
chance of it becoming a victim of what promises to be a Canadian Tax Loss Selling season to
remember.
Of those four cons, numbers 1) and 2) are lessened due to the C$85m placement, now closed.
That brings a reasonable treasury position and clarity on the share dilution. Then there’s point
4), which may have the next seven days to surprise us further but it now probably done.
However, that still leaves point 3) and we avoid that risk by planning to sell before Q4 cash
costs and 2024 guidance is known.
Bottom line: This trade decision isn’t going to surprise many of you, as we’ve been tracking its
potential for several weeks and the set-up now looks to have tipped the risk/reward balance in
the favour of longs. I’m a buyer of AR.to this coming week, it will move to the main
recommends section of the Stocks to Follow list as from next weekend and now I have to (quite
literally) phone my order in from an unusual trading location, sound of waves breaking on a
beach included.
Stocks to Follow
This time of year will often throw out a Curate’s Egg of a week like the one we just saw. A mix
of macro positives, Tax Loss negatives and action often concentrated in the handful of juniors
and Tier 2 producers that get traded with reliable liquid volumes combined and while the net
results was a positive week, there were potholes and disappointing stocks mixed in.
Of the 17 stocks on the list at present, eight were losers (MAI.v, EQX, CTGO, SOLG.to, ALDE.v,
MARI.to, SOMA.v, PAU.cse) and of those, the biggest percentage hits were taken by Contango
(CTGO down 16.6%) and Provenance Gold (PAU.cse down 13.6%). Three remained unchanged
on the week (NCAU.v, RIO.v, SURG.v), which leaves eight winners (ARG.to, FSM, MIRL.cse,
ERO.to, AR.to, MENE.v), a list that includes double figure percentage wins Minera IRL (MIRL up
25.0% though it’s for show only at this stage, the stock is dead) Ero Copper (ERO.to up 18.2%)
and Mene Inc (MENE.v up 12.7%).
We still have 17 stocks on the list, with six are in the green, one unchanged and ten in the red.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.315 50.0% $0.75 first tgt, #1 idea
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Amerigo Res ARG.to hold C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.35 -0.7% Cu price better, will hold
Fortuna Silver FSM hold U$2.92 13-Aug-23 U$3.94 34.8% Finally moved, still want flip
Equinox Gold EQX STR BUY U$4.46 30-May-23 U$4.70 5.4% Leverage trade at U$2k/oz Au
Contango Ore CTGO BUY U$18.70 30-Jul-23 U$17.73 -5.2% FY24 production, now moving
SolGold SOLG.to BUY C$0.265 19-Feb-23 C$0.14 -47.2% Cu in Ecuador, M&A tgt
Newcore Gold NCAU.v SPEC BUY C$0.205 23-Oct-22 C$0.135 -34.1% Showing signs of life
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v BUY C$0.83 22-Apr-18 C$0.23 -72.3% Cheap on permit probs, appeal
SPECULATIVE TRADES
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v SPEC BUY C$0.72 16-May-21 C$0.84 16.7% drilling again
Minera IRL MIRL.cse avoid C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.025 -87.2% leaving list soon (good)
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
Marimaca Copper MARI.to WATCH C$3.65 26-May-23 C$3.43 -6.4% Likely buy,cheap entry showing
Ero Copper ERO.to WATCH C$18.94 22-Oct-23 C$21.74 14.8% High quality Cu prod, cheap
Argonaut Gold AR.to BUYING C$0.395 22-Oct-23 C$0.395 0.0% New tax loss season flip
Soma Gold SOMA.v WATCH C$0.66 26-Nov-23 C$0.60 -9.1% small gold prod in Colombia
Surge Copper SURG.v WATCH C$0.11 18-Jun-23 C$0.07 -36.4% tinycap Cu in BC Canada
Provenance Gold PAU.cse WATCH C$0.085 8-Oct-23 C$0.095 11.8% Idaho gold drill play
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.63 6-Dec-20 C$0.31 -50.8% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2023 date closed close price
Altiplano Metals APN.v jan'23 C$0.31 17-Sep-21 C$0.17 -45.2% delayed and will dilute soon
Western Copper WRN.to mar'23 C$2.02 13-Nov-22 C$2.32 14.9% sold on reduced M&A prob.
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v may'23 C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$1.75 -43.0% Closing on legal action news
Amerigo Res ARG.to may'23 C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.48 8.8% sold 20% to raise cash
Amerigo Res ARG.to oct'23 C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.21 -11.0% sold 10% raise to cash
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v oct'23 C$0.265 25-Apr-21 C$0.12 -54.7% sold raise to cash
Faraday Copper FDY.to oct'23 C$0.79 26-Mar-23 C$0.68 -11.4% sold raise to cash
AbraSilver Res. ABRA.v oct'23 C$0.36 4-Dec-22 C$0.28 -22.2% sold raise to cash
Orecap inv OCI.v oct'23 C$0.04 20-Nov-22 C$0.03 -25.0% sold raise to cash
Western Explor. WEX.v nov'23 C$1.87 9-Apr-23 C$0.60 -67.9% poor trade, cutting loss
2015 to 2022 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
5
Now for notes on some of our covered companies:
Argonaut Gold (AR.to): BUYING. A quick extra note to confirm the plan, as AR will move
from the “Watch List” to the open list of recommended stocks as from next weekend. We’re
looking to make a quick and happy difference and start 2024 on the right footing.
Minera Alamos (MAI.v): The problem with MAI last
week was its Friday, as the stock reacted the way it should
have on the Fed news and popped nicely along with the
sector, but market interest petered out on Thursday,
buyers stayed away Friday and looked toward other stocks
as trade vehicles. As a result, it only took a few sellers to
push the stock price back from whence it came and the
week was another disappointment.
Cannot blame the speculators from staying away in Tax
Loss season and preferring to wait for cheap shares
instead of bidding them up. It’s what I’d do in the same
position. MAI needs to deliver permit news, simple as that.
Equinox Gold (EQX) (EQX.to) and Fortuna Silver (FSM) (FVI.to): Again lumped together,
but this time for a different reason. For the first time in a
long time, one of these two zigged (FSM) while the other
zagged (EQX)…or is that the other way round? But this is
an example of the strange and anomalous trading we
sometimes get during the December period and EQX may
have seen some sustained Tax Loss Selling on the week.
Assuming it offers up a good Q4 production number and
confirms Greenstone as going to plan, there’s every
reason to expect EQX to catch up. Meanwhile, FSM is
building a bit of a fan base and more strong drill
numbers from its new Seguela mine have helped its
cause this month.
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v): Heads-up, folks: Following on from last week, your author has kept his
antennae open and while there’s still no official confirmation, there’s now reliable talk of Chile’s
Comité the Ministros holding a meeting this coming week and hearing appeals on “more than
one” of the pending cases before it. There’s no confirmation of the agenda, but we know that
the Rio2 Fenix Gold appeal is one of the most pending and delayed on its books and if the
Comité is looking to process more than one, it makes sense that Fenix is up. This is the website
to watch (3) and look out for a “Convocatoria N°8 Ordinaria”, if it so appears. By way of a
reminder, there are three ways the decision can go:
Rejected: Rio2 loses its appeal
Approved: Rio2 wins its appeal under the conditions of the previous permit
Approved with conditions: Rio2 wins its appeal but the govt adds some extra conditions
Of those, we believe #3 “Approved with conditions” to be the most likely and if so, that would
be the same result achieved by the Anglo Los Bronces appeal decision and would suit the
company just fine. It would take one good news week to move this back to 40c, so it would be
great if it were this coming week.
Aldebaran Resources (ALDE.v): With the Milei government loosening up capital controls,
ALDE is in the right place to benefit from easier financing conditions and with the size of its
copper project, it’s only a matter of time before some of the money that’s moved into FIL and
others rotates into this story.
Amerigo Resources (ARG.to): It was a good week for ARG even before the Fed comments
and market reaction pushed copper higher. Not quite the spectacular move pout in by ERO, but
6
still good and the “easy hold” moniker continues to apply.
Contango ORE (CTGO): A big-ish seller showed up on Thursday and particularly Friday and
the stock price got whacked again, doing its volatile thing despite the large cash amount
(compared to most juniors) that runs through this stock. I’ve taken a couple of mails from
readers concerned about the news stories out of Fairbanks and region at the start of this
month, along with the legal action brought against Peak Gold LLC (70% Kinross, 30% CTGO)
but so far at least, there has been no change to the status of the legal action and no injunction
applied to the trucks. In fact the latest news (4) is that the trucking has begun but is now using
an alternative route to avoid the most contentious zones. Kinross (the Manh Choh operators)
have been transparent and have provided statements to the press, explaining that the permits
they have were awarded after a detailed and extensive permitting period and comply with all
requirements. We also understand that the objectors are a vocal minority that does not
represent the majority view in the region. Overall, I’m happy about holding through though
we’ll need to keep an eye on the legal newsflow.
SolGold (SOLG.to) (SOLG.L): This week is showtime, as the AGM is set for December 20th
after another dismal week for the stock price. Something has to happen to improve this sorry
story, so let’s see if “Team BHP” wrests back control from the disappointing “Team Mather” or
whether the current control bloc can propose something more proactive and impress the insto
watchers.
Provenance Gold (PAU.cse): Down on the week, but due more to being generally ignored
and overlooked as an exploreco trade…so far at least. PAU gave us one of those “Year In
Review” NRs on Thursday (5), summing up the drilling seen in 2023 to date and looking
forward to the year ahead. The tone was upbeat and rightly so in this desk’s opinion, as there’s
an awful lot to like about this stock at this price and the combo of thick, good grade intercepts
from surface is the right one for a economically robust resource once there’s enough drill
metres in Eldorado to produce a 43-101 compliant resource. PAU has the money to advance,
has a great target and has my eye as we move out of my self-imposed waiting period for new
trades and into a
The Copper Basket
After fifty-one weeks of 2023, The Copper Basket shows a loss of 19.24% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Solaris Res SLS.to 6.44 148.15 613.34 4.14 -35.7%
2 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.22 92.882 318.59 3.43 6.5%
3 Western Copper WRN.to 2.41 151.597 277.42 1.83 -24.1%
4 Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to 1.92 105.96 188.61 1.78 -7.3%
5 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.78 169.819 142.65 0.84 7.7%
6 Regulus Res. REG.v 1.10 124.509 103.34 0.83 -24.5%
7 Hot Chili HCH.v 0.78 119.455 101.54 0.85 9.0%
8 Faraday Copper FDY.to 0.54 175.2 98.11 0.56 3.7%
9 Oroco Res OCO.v 0.91 216.13 87.53 0.405 -55.5%
10 Pan Global Res PGZ.v 0.46 242.74 44.91 0.185 -59.8%
11 Kodiak Copper KDK.v 1.12 56.2 33.16 0.59 -47.3%
12 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.16 106.25 20.72 0.195 21.9%
13 QC Copper QCCU.v 0.165 162.815 19.54 0.12 -27.3%
14 Atacama Copper ACOP.v 0.16 35.94 7.55 0.21 31.3%
15 Libero Copper LBC.v 0.155 119.58 2.39 0.02 -87.1%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg -19.24%
7
The basket average improved by just a few
tenths, which would normally indicate a quiet The Copper Basket 2023, weekly evolution
15%
and calm week for the copper juniors and 10%
explorecos but that’s not the case this time, as 5%
the story is of big winners and big losers 0%
-5%
cancelling each other out.
-10%
-15%
Six of our 15 charges were losers on the week -20%
(SLS.to, MARI.to, OCO.v, ALDE.v, HCH.v, -25%
-30%
FDY.to), including big losers Solaris (SLS.to
down 19.5%) and Oroco (OCO.v down 15.6%),
three were unchanged (QCCU.v, LBC.v,
ACOP.v) ands six were winners (WRN.to,
ASCU.to, PGZ.v, REG.v, KDK.v, ECU.v) including the
big percentage moves in Element 29 (ECU.v up
30.0%) and Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.to up 17.9%).
The week was a mix of stocks moving up with copper
and moving down for their own sweet reasons (mostly
tax loss dynamics) but as this two month chart of
copper-the-metal shows, the market was conducive
and copper ran higher along with most other
commodities on the Fed comments (seen above).
In “Copper supply and demand thoughts” last week,
we went over the effects of the latest market
dynamics and how they may (or may not) affect the
copper price in the weeks and months to come. There will be more n the subject this coming
week, as the International Copper Study Group is due to publish its latest update on its
estimated supply and demand this coming week and the new stats are bound to take into
account the new supply tightness (Anglo, Panama Cobre etc). We can assume the previous
estimates of the modest copper surplus (+467kmt) is about to disappear and while that’s bound
to add fuel to the debate on 2024 copper prices, this desk assumes the upcoming news has
already been baked in by the assumptions we walked through last week.
We move to our regular weekly check on world copper inventories with data as usual collated
from Cochilco:
We saw a small overall drop in the inventory aggregate in the three world systems, but
1,283 metric tonnes (mt) is nothing special. Friday’s total came to 225,355mt.
After adding 4kmt the week before last and climbing from its record low, the Shanghai
SHFE copper inventory added another 4,054mt to close at 34,396mt on the week.
The LME dropped by 6,050mt to close at 175,550mt tonnes, and it’s interesting to note
that we’re finally seeing significant tonnages leaving the LME New Orleans warehouses,
with 5,150mt of the total leaving via those doors alone.
The Comex stocks went up for the second week running, 713 tonnes added to bring
the total to 15,409mt.
The dedicated SHFE chart shows how 2023 continues to track 2021.
8
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2yluj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6gua ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3pes ht01 ht71 ht42 ts1tco ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5von ht21 ht91 ht62 dr3ced ht01 ht71
source: IKN calcs
SHFE copper inventory levels, 2018 to 2023
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
MT Cu 2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
source: Cochilco data
It’s tight, but it looks as though China is going to fill its copper quota for the year end.
Now for notes on a couple of basket stocks:
Solaris Resources (SLS.to): The week’s biggest dump was on self-generated news, though it
may have been helped on by some retail throwing in the towel and taking the tax credit (6):
December 11, 2023 – Vancouver, B.C. – Solaris Resources Inc. (TSX: SLS; OTCQB:
SLSSF) (“Solaris” or the “Company”) is pleased to announce that Solaris and OMF
Fund IV SPV D LLC and OMF Fund IV SPV E LLC, entities managed by Orion Mine
Finance Management LP (collectively, "Orion"), have entered into definitive
agreements with respect to the previously announced financing package of US$80
million for the advancement of the Warintza Project (the “Project”) in Ecuador,
comprised of a US$60 million senior secured debt facility (the “Senior Loan”), an
offtake with a buyback provision (the “Offtake”), a subscription for US$10 million in
equity and a commitment for US$10 million in additional equity financing.
While the headline spin of an exploreco managing to raise a
large lump of cash in a difficult market may look good, this
tells us two things:
1) There’s no buyer willing to buy right now and SLS
has fallen back on Plan B
2) This is another case of an exploreco adding balance
sheet debt.
That’s a poisonous combination and the result was only to be
expected. As good as Warintza is rocks-wise, it has always
been easy to avoid this trade because of its red flag level of
community relations.
Atacama Copper (ACOP.v): It’s taken most of Q4 to happen, but Friday evening finally saw
the ACOP TC1 merger proposal move forward (7). The deal also finances the newco (which will
continue as ACOP and have Tim Warman at its head) via an 18c placement to raise $10m, we
also note that Pierre Lassonde will become an 11.1% equity holder in the newco once the
placement is closed. That should help raise its image.
The Producer Basket
After 51 weeks of 2023, the Producer Basket shows a gain of 13.78% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 47.20 1152.6 47.11 40.87 -13.4%
2 Barrick GOLD 17.18 1761.54 30.84 17.51 1.9%
3 Agnico Eagle AEM 51.99 488.9 26.41 54.01 3.9%
4 Wheaton PM WPM 39.08 451.963 22.05 48.79 24.8%
5 Kinross Gold KGC 4.09 1256.1 7.57 6.03 47.4%
6 Alamos Gold AGI 10.11 393.1 5.36 13.64 34.9%
7 B2Gold BTG 3.57 1074.567 3.38 3.15 -11.8%
8 Hecla Mining GFI 5.56 610.491 3.02 4.95 -11.0%
9 Eldorado Gold EGO 8.36 185.73 2.35 12.67 51.6%
10 Wesdome Gold WDOFF 5.53 147.526 0.89 6.05 9.4%
All prices and stock quotes in U$ Port. avg 13.78%
It wasn’t a clean sweep this time, as Alamos Gold (AGI) was a week-over-week loser and lost a
modest 0.9%, but as that stock has been a consistently strong performer over the last two
years it’s allowed a week’s rest. The other nine were all winners, but the moves weren’t as
violent as the rollercoaster of the previous two weeks and this time, the best wins were
9
registered by two relative laggards, Hecla (HL up 5.5%) and Agnico (AEM up 5.4%). Overall,
our basket of ten was a couple of tenths behind the GDX benchmark that added 4.3% on the
week, but with just two weeks left to go (indeed, there are 53 business weeks crammed into
2023) the win for our list looks set fair. However, it’s more luck than judgment as the final few
weeks have benefited from not having Franco-Nevada as a pick in 2023.
The 2023 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
comparative to GDX control
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
Wesdome Gold (WDO.to (WDOFF): WDO has been fairly active in bringing news to market
is what is normally a quiet period for the larger operating mines and last week we learned of
promising new drill intersects at the company’s main Eagle River underground mine (8). The
vuts come from a zone that has not yet been developed and is indicative of the generous
nature of the local geology; there’s plenty of gold left to be discovered, developed and
eventually mined here. Not news that will move the market because the world seems to take
Eagle’s ongoing productivity as read, but good solid fundies news all the same.
The TinyCaps List
After 51 weeks of 2023, the TinyCaps show a gain of 17.07% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Aurelius Min AUL.v 0.07 49.787 1.00 0.02 -71.4%
Coast Copper COCO.v 0.045 64.001 2.88 0.045 0.0%
District Metals DMX.v 0.075 86.891 14.34 0.165 120.0%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.13 69.962 5.25 0.075 -42.3%
Manitou Gold MTU.v 0.02 344.568 18.95 0.055 175.0%
Nine Mile Metals NINE.cse 0.29 57.025 9.12 0.16 -44.8%
Palamina Corp PA.v 0.08 65.285 6.53 0.10 25.0%
Precipitate Gold PRG.v 0.075 130.367 7.82 0.06 -20.0%
South Star STS.v 0.55 40.129 30.90 0.77 40.0%
Viva Gold VAU.v 0.14 106.721 13.34 0.125 -10.7%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 17.07%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
Market capitalization of under $20m. They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a
little and allowed sub-U$20m market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, but it was a particularly depressing exercise to trawl through the whole of the TSXV and find companies
that are small enough, but with life in them. The vast majority of sub-$20m stocks are broken stocks, either
traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2023. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
10
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2yluj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6gua ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3pes ht01 ht71 ht42 ts1tco ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5von ht21 ht91 ht62 dr3ced ht01 ht71
The 2023 Producer Basket: Percentage difference
between GDX benchmark & basket (negative = IKN ahead)
4.0%
ikn
2.0%
gdx control
0.0%
-2.0%
-4.0%
-6.0%
-8.0%
source: NYSE, IKN calcs -10.0%
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2yluj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6gua ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3pes ht01 ht71 ht42 ts1tco ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5von ht21 ht91 ht62 dr3ced ht01 ht71
source: IKN calcs, NYSE data
Two more weeks and we refresh this list, in the
TinyCaps, 2023 weekly tracker
meantime we stagger toward the 2023 finish line 50%
45%
with three winners on the week (NINE.cse, PA.v, 40%
STA.v), two losers (DMX.v LMS.v) and five 35%
30%
unchanged stocks (AUL.v, COCO.v, MTU.v, PRG.v, 25%
20%
VAU.v), the net effect being a small improvement on
15%
the basket average. 10%
5%
0%
South Star (STS.v): It took a couple of weeks to
get a positive reaction from STS on its US
government sponsorship news, but last week was a
better performance and any new buyers of size needed to pay up. This YTD chart shows the
way STS has held its new price level reasonably well as Stage One production from its Brazilian
asset now looms. Likeable tinycap.
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future
I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
Argentina: President Milei devalues the Peso
The first week of Javier Milei President of Argentina included him running a live Instagram
event from the Presidential Palace in which he fielded questions from rank and file Argentines,
as well as running a prize draw for the Presidential salary for that month. There was also the
bill sent to Congress that verged on the authoritarian in its promise to use the armed forces and
immediate jail for anyone protesting against the government illegally (i.e. not in a sanctioned
strike march), but away from the populist oddities there was more style than substance. He
announced taxes of the same sort he had railed against in his campaign, automatic royalties on
grain exports (the easiest tax there is to levy in Argentina) and there is zero sign of the country
Dollarizing in the near or even medium-term future. Plus of course the new Congress is now
sitting and Milei’s lack of a power bloc in parliament means he’s already falling to the classic
political compromises he’ll need with friends, frenemies and enemies in order to get anything on
his agenda done, or even half done.
However, he does have control of the country’s purse strings via his Superminister, FinMin Luis
Caputo (who did the same job in the Macri Presidency) and on Wednesday, he did one of the
things he said he’d do and devalued the official rate of the Peso. The hard peg was removed, a
crawling peg that left the official rate at 838 Pesos to the Dollar on Friday was introduced and
the gap between it and the unofficial Dolar Blue is down to less than 150 pips, as seen on this
comparative chart (9):
11
ts1naJ ht51 ht92 ht21 ht62 ht21 ht62 ht9 dr32 ht7yam ts12 ht4nuj ht81 dn2yluj ht61 ht03 ht31 ht72 ht01 ht42 ht8 dn22 ht5von ht91 dr3ced ht71
source: IKN calcs, TSX data
This is good news for any business importing dollars into the country, though obviously it’s bad
or even very bad news for the populace. If you’re a rich enough Argentine to have saved in
USD over the last few months or years you’re also doing well, but most people are out there
earning in Pesios paying their car loans and mortgages in US Dollars. Those have just been hit
hard and when the subsidies start coming off the cost of domestic electricity, gas etc things will
get even tougher. Milei knows his policies will cause a deep recession in the country and is
banking on it being and brief trough before the country starts to recover. Don’t bet on that one.
Market Watching
AbraSilver revisited (ABRA.v)
The news (above) that Argentina had devalued its official exchange rate as well as started a
crawling peg that is expected to devalue the Peso by 2% per month makes for winners and
losers in the country and while some of the losers are noted above, winners include any
company importing dollars into the country in order to operate. That’s a group which includes
mining companies large and small, for example AbraSilver (ABRA.v), a company that we
recommended and owned for a fair period before giving up the ghost in the process of raising
treasury cash. As this chart (right) shows, last week’s
news was greeted by the market with an immediate
improvement in the share price, as ABRA will not have
to spend as much in USD (or CAD terms) in its future
activities. However, Friday also brought the flipside
and a market still willing to sell into any uptick and
that may be a Tax Loss Selling phenomenon.
ABRA was my only real foray into silver in 2023 and
even, then it was a small-ish trade that eventually
closed for a modest loss. However, it’s definitely one
of the best in (a bad?) breed and its rapidly expanding
Diablillos project in Northeastern Argentina is very
likeable. Those of you looking for silver exposure into the New Year should note the recent
relative strength, there are a lot worse than this silver pick.
Another on Heliostar (HSTR.v)
In more potential tax loss selling trade news, we noted last weekend in “Heliostar Metals
(HSTR.v) brings good news to market” the apparent irony of a company that has been pure
“Sizzle Over Steak” so far in 2023 that finally brought some genuine good news to market, i.e.
the appointment of a quality COO willing to work hands-on in a tough corner of Guerrero State,
only to see its share price drop. As things turned out, that drop continued through this week:
12
After being pumped into the news, there’s more than a hint of tax loss selling in last week’s
price action (though I’m the first to admit that I wasn’t watching the tape closely as from
Wednesday). The stock is back at what looks like the default line at 28c and it’s looking like one
for your post-Christmas rebound shortlist. Not a stock I’d hold on to for long, but another flip
candidate to run alongside the house choice of Argonaut (AR.to, see above) and potentially
ABRA as well.
Buenaventura (BVN) and Antofagasta (ANTO.L)
The news on Friday that Chile’s Antofagasta (ANTO.L), controlled by Chilean mining’s Luksic
dynasty (current President Jean-Paul Luksic), has
taken a 19% position in Peru’s Buenaventura
(BVN), controlled by Peruvian mining’s Benavides
dynasty (currently Roque and Raul) did this to the
BVN share price (right). While BVN says that ANTO
is welcome as a new strategic shareholder and will
offer them a seat on the board, anyone on the
outside looking in needs to forget any thoughts of
an immediate takeover. The BVN share structure
the Class A shares held by Benavides family insiders
the majority voting rights control over the company
and represents a solid wall against any aggressor
looking to take over the company. Therefore, it’s
best to consider ANTO’s move as a step in what will
likely be a longer game and one that really is designed to be a mutually beneficial
partnership…as a long-term view the only way ANTO will be able to convince the Benavides
control family.
Conclusion
IKN761 is done, we end with bullet points:
Buying Argonaut (AR.to) is tempting fate somewhat, after having lost money on the
original trade back in 2021. However, its aspect and dynamics have changed
considerably since then and this does seem to be a sweet spot to run a quick fliptrade.
We need to pay close attention to Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v), its time may have finally arrived.
While copper may have a good time of it in the next few weeks, gold is a far easier bet
to go higher. Be exposed to gold.
13
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stock is Minera Alamos (MAI.v). Flash
updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best wishes, Mark
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/gold-creeps-higher-weaker-yields-traders-brace-fed-
verdict-2023-12-13/
(2) https://www.argonautgold.com/files/doc_news/2023/12/ar-closing-news-release-final.pdf
(3) https://sea.gob.cl/convocatorias-ordinarias-y-extraordinarias-0
(4) https://www.webcenterfairbanks.com/2023/12/12/kinross-begins-hauling-manh-choh-gold-ore-through-fairbanks-
changes-route/
(5) https://www.provenancegold.com/20231214-provenance-gold-reports-summary-of-results-from-its-maiden-rc-drill-
program-at-eldorado-extensive-surface-and-subsurface-mineralized-system-confirmed
(6) https://www.solarisresources.com/news/press-releases/solaris-announces-us80-million-financing-package--to-fund-
warintza-project-through-studies-and-permitting
(7) https://finance.yahoo.com/news/atacama-copper-corporation-announces-execution-033900616.html
(8) https://www.wesdome.com/English/investors/latest-news/news-details/2023/Wesdome-Drilling-Continues-to-Return-
High-Grades-Over-Mineable-Widths-From-Recently-Discovered-Zones-Both-West-and-East-of-the-Mine-Diorite-at-the-
Eagle-River-Mine/default.aspx
(9) https://www.dolarito.ar/cotizaciones-historicas/dolar/informal/2023/cotizacion-historica-del-dolar-informal-
a%C3%B1o-2023
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2022
Closed in 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
Goldshore Res GSHR.v Nov'22 C$0.18 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 88.9% Quick profit taken
Palamina Corp PA.v Dec'22 C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.08 -72.9% Clear-out of underperformer
Pure Gold PGM.h Dec'22 C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.015 -89.3% tiny trade on vh risk, went Ch11
14
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Set-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
15
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
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New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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