IKN #759Premium

The IKN Weekly
Week 759, December 3rd 2023
Contents
This Week: In Today’s Edition, Gold runs, Last call for 2024 Basket Cases, Another delay.
Fundamental Analysis: Minera Alamos (MAI.v) 3q23.
Stocks to Follow: Western Exploration (WEX.v), Soma Gold (SOMA.v), Argonaut Gold (AR.to),
Equinox Gold (EQX) (EQX.to), Fortuna Silver (FSM) (FVI.to), Aldebaran Resources (ALDE.v),
Amerigo Resources (ARG.to), Contango ORE (CTGO), Minera IRL (MIRL.cse).
The Copper Basket: Overview, Dogs wagging tails (KDK.v) (ECU.v) (OCO.v) (QCCU.v)
(PGZ.v), Oroco (OCO.v), Solaris Resources (SLS.to), Western Copper (WRN.to) (WRN).
Producer Basket: Overview, Wesdome Gold (WDO.to (WDOFF).
The TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Viva Gold (VAU.v), South Star Battery Metals (STS.v), Nine
Mile Metals (NINE.cse).
Regional Politics: First Quantum (FM.to) and the Panama Cobre mess, Argentina: A new
President and a mining minister change.
Market Watching: The IKN Weekly, gold and PM stocks in Q4, Monday update: Argonaut
Gold (AR.to) runs a bought deal.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
In Today’s Edition
 Today’s main event is a look at the 3q23 financials as reported by our Top Pick stock,
Minera Alamos (MAI.v). It wasn’t all bad and the price move it made last week was
most welcome, but at some point the logjam of permitting has to budge because if not,
there’s too much money in this position that can be put to work somewhere else.
 On that subject, the other main note this week is an overview of how we’ve
approached gold and precious metals stocks so far in Q4 of 2023, as there are
increasing signs that the sector is about to run.
 The Copper Basket covers the welcome pop in the metal’s price last week, finds
fundamental reasons to back up the move but is still unconvinced that there’s enough
in the tank to get copper moving in the upcoming slow sales period, post-Christmas.
 Finally and taking advantage of the 24 hour delay in publication this week, we consider
the news out of Argonaut Gold (AR.to) this Monday regarding its C$80m (well, C$85m
in fact) bought deal. It’s one of the missing pieces we were looking for in order to run a
trade on the stock, we consider the details and strategy in Market Watching.
Gold runs
It was quite a week for gold. Monday to Thursday saw constructive trading in most issues and
commodities, metals and miners happily included, but on Friday the brakes were loosed in no
uncertain style and due to an unlikely source. Fed Head Jerome Powell isn’t a silly man and
know how he words are weighed at any given moment. He knows that the drop in real interest
rates is gaining steam, he knows the market beginning to realize that “higher for longer” is little
more than jawbone and he also knows that a big part of his job is to “manage expectations”
1

(i.e. use jawbone successfully, so come Friday he appeared at a fireside chat event at Spelman
College (1) and once the prepared comments were out the way and the Q&A began, he tried to
underscore the Fed’s “tough stance” so rise the chances of early rate cuts,
“The FOMC is strongly committed to bringing inflation down to 2 percent over time, and
to keeping policy restrictive until we are confident that inflation is on a path to that
objective. It would be premature to conclude with confidence that we have achieved a
sufficiently restrictive stance, or to speculate on when policy might ease. We are
prepared to tighten policy further if it becomes appropriate to do so.”
And sure enough, his tough talk….saw rates collapse even more quickly. Maybe Jay Powell was
surprised by the reaction, but the market saw straight through the pretense and to explain why,
John Authers summed it up very nicely over the weekend in his Point of Return column at
Bloomie (2):
Analysts swiftly pointed out the conditionality. The Fed is “prepared” to hike further “if”
it “becomes” appropriate is a backdoor way of admitting that at present it wouldn’t be
appropriate. Something needs to happen to make inflation worse before they would do
so. And while inveighing that it would be “premature” to speculate when policy might
ease is clearly worded to get people to stop speculating that way, the language could
have been much, much stronger.
Correct and while most things priced in US Dollars rose in value, gold got an extra boost by
being a valid alternative as an asset class/store of value to the USD. The current market is also
signalling one of the classic bullish phases for gold, as real rates drop into economic
uncertainty. Recession or not, gold gets more attractive as the allure of inflation beating bonds
rates drops away and as a result, we may finally get some Wall St money buying into bullion. If
that happens, it could stoke some real competition for gold ounces as so far the buyers have
been Chindian or world Central Banks. Indeed, US instos even managed to ignore the move in
gold last week if our indicators on the main gold bullion ETF, GLD, are anything to go by. Even
as gold prices increased last week, gold holdings in GLD vaults dropped back four and half
tonnes to close at 878.82mt, pushing the Inventory/Price Ratio sentiment indicator down to
another all-time low of 4.58X. Impressive though that might be, even the drop in real rates and
its standard as one of the financial industry’s more reliable reasons to buy gold bullion hasn’t
been enough for big money to buy into the safe haven. If and when that changes, gold could
really be off to the races.
GLD gold holdings, 2023 YTD (metric tonnes)
960
950
940
930
920
910
900
890
880
870
860
850
840
Last call for 2024 Basket Cases
This is the final call for ideas for next year’s baskets, four is enough and nobody is whacking
anybody over the head. But as a few more ideas came in over the last seven days, I’m once
again reminded that repeats are worth the effort. So to bore you all one final time…
Every November/December your author puts together a long list (then a short list) of stocks for
our three tracking baskets for the year to come, namely The Copper Basket, Producer
Basket and TinyCaps Basket. Year-end will see those lists refreshed, with companies leaving
and replaced by others and as usual, I already have a few ideas for companies to swap out and
swap in. However, the Long List is a big part of the game and for that, we throw the subject
2
32/1/3 32/1/81 32/2/2 32/2/71 32/3/4 32/3/91 32/4/3 32/4/81 32/5/3 32/5/81 32/6/2 32/6/71 32/7/2 32/7/71 32/8/1 32/8/61 32/8/13 32/9/51 32/9/03 32/01/51 32/01/03 32/11/41 32/11/92
mt 5.60 GLD: Inventory/Price Ratio, 2023 YTD
source: SPDR GLD data 5.50
5.40
5.30
5.20
5.10
5.00
4.90
4.80
4.70
4.60
4.50
32/1/3 32/1/81 32/2/2 32/2/71 32/3/4 32/3/91 32/4/3 32/4/81 32/5/3 32/5/81 32/6/2 32/6/71 32/7/2 32/7/71 32/8/1 32/8/61 32/8/13 32/9/51 32/9/03 32/01/51 32/01/03 32/11/41 32/11/92
Source: SPDR data, IKN calcs

out to the collective mind of readership and ask for suggestions. Your suggestions and prompts
are greatly valued because there are always some ideas for companies, large or small, that beat
mine and end up on the lists. With that in mind, here’s the framework and as the baskets are
somewhat different in make-up, first a reminder of what type of company we need in each list:
 For The Copper Basket: We look for a group of 15 stocks that as a whole represent
the junior copper mining world. The maximum market cap is $1Bn, but preferably I like
them lower to better reflect our sector of interest. We welcome tinycaps, as a cross
section is required. As we’re not trying to beat the street and want a faithful reflection of
the sector, always happy to include bad copper companies or dog stocks if they bring
something to the table.
 For The Producer Basket: There is no upper limit in market cap size, but we do
require a minimum market cap of U$2Bn. For this list, I’m looking for suggestions for
precious metals producers that will out-perform in 2024, as we also have the less
important (except for my own ego) exercise of trying to beat the GDX benchmark.
 For The TinyCaps: First and foremost, for this list we require companies with a market
cap of $20m maximum, as The TinyCaps tracks market moves of the smallest companies.
However, at this level of market cap there are many broken stocks and dead companies
with projects going nowhere. They are not interesting, as although we cannot expect
operational or managerial perfection at this level the company still needs to “have a
pulse” and be a reasonable trade or speculative alternative.
I normally look to change between three and five companies on each list, so if you have a good
candidate for the Producer, Copper or TinyCap list, be they companies you own or not (or if it’s
a doggish type of idea, perhaps “owned”) please drop a line the usual addresses. Thanks in
advance for any and all suggestions received and expect this intro note to run from now to the
second week in December.
Another delay
At least there are no trades planned in this edition and oddly, the delay of 24 hours has allowed
the opportunity to take in a violent pop/drop in the price of gold bullion in Asia overnight
trading, as well as the (expected) news of a large equity financing at Watch List stock,
Argonaut Gold (AR.to). However, the delay to this week’s edition was not planned, neither is it
the only one in the last few months and as such, I feel a small explanation is in order. This isn’t
some sort of “poor me" lamentation, it’s more the public recognition of something I’ve been
aware of for the last few weeks and is now actively affecting my output. That’s not good. I
have no real reason or excuse, instead the catch-all answer is that old cliché of “writer’s block”
but to add a little more, on too many weekends in recent times I’ve sat down at my regular
time ready to do the regular thing (this is weekend 759) but found myself staring helplessly at
the screen with nothing written an hour later. Or two hours. Or half a day. It’s not a pleasant
feeling and this weekend was even worse, so at some point on Saturday (rather than Sunday) I
just closed the computer down and went to do something else, having decided to give myself
an extra day rather than mentally beat myself up again. It’s also fair to say I’m ready for some
sort of break and as the last Real vacation/holiday we had was before Covid hit, the upcoming
visit to the in-laws and stay over Christmas cannot come quickly enough. So next weekend’s
edition should go out as normal, then after that expect the “bare bones” editions to finish the
year. Come January, I expect to be rested up, raring to go and ready to attack 2024 in style.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Minera Alamos (MAI.v) 3q23
I'm just sitting here watching the wheels go round and round
I really love to watch them roll
No longer riding on the merry-go-round
I just had to let it go
Watching the Wheels, John Lennon,1981
3

Last week saw our Top Pick Minera Alamos file its 3q23 financials and MD&A and, when
processing the financials into the house database, John Lennon’s posthumous hit started
floating through my head. Once again we have the company spinning its wheels and a quarter
that’s a stall on its original timelines, but at the same time no damage is being done to its
financial situation or its development project(s) at Cerro de Oro, La Fortuna or even the small
and possibly interesting Los Verdes copper target. So today we’ll run over the basic numbers,
point to a few interesting wrinkles and add in comments on the outlook for the company, or at
least as much as I could get out of company President Doug Ramshaw before wrapping up and
coming to a conclusion, which for once is a little different from the “Let’s Be Patient” position
taken by this desk all through 2023. But before we get to the bad news and then the better
news, let’s check the good news from last week:
Thee good news is that the share price finally made a significant move after months of slow
drudgery around the 30c level but, strangely, that came during the trading session before MAI
filed its Q3. As seen on the chart above, somebody somewhere decided this was a real bargain
(quite right, too) and what’s more, when the somewhat lacklustre 3q23 numbers were know,
we didn’t get an immediate and quick re-trace back to the previous levels. For sure trading as
the week ended didn’t reach the 39c peak of Wednesday again, but the 37c close Friday
represented more bargain hunting and price support that was a sight for sore eyes, at this desk
anyway. We know that President Ramshaw was presenting at London’s Mines & Money
conference last week and that may have been enough to bring some new cash in, but as good
as the price pop was, the better news was how the move stuck. That brings new hope for this
somewhat jaded holder of an out-sized position, so despite a thin production and sales quarter
in Q3, there seem to be value-oriented people looking on this stock with the right long-term
attitude.
And that’s enough good news for one day, time for some reality and the 3q23 financials. We
start with this:
MAI: Santana sales and forecast, per qtr
4
104
96.7512
85.8213
6324
0582 5762
1701
636
0003 0003
6000
5500
5000
4500
4000 3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4 tse42q1
Oz Au
source: MAI data, IKN ests
We knew production and sales were going to be low in Q3 as the company ramped back up,
but 636 oz gold sold was way lower than even this desk’s modest expectations. It also means
I’ve cut projections for the next two quarters to a best guess estimate of just 3,000oz for 4q23

and 1q24. After seeing just 636 oz leave Santana last quarter, even 3k oz might seem like a
stretch but, after conversing with President Ramshaw and getting confirmation that the ounces
on the heap leach are good to go in the current
cycle time, there’s every reason to expect the 6,337
oz reported on pad at end 3q23 to cover our
modest target. Those ounces became C$1.79m by
the time they arrived on the P+L (right). That low
level of sales means that mine ops weren’t going to
make any money and even though MAI managed to
keep a lid of operating costs, Santana returned a
small gross loss of $112k. That should bounce back
in Q4 as long as sales reach our 3k oz level and
remind us all that Santana is always going to be an
efficient, low cash cost operation (no matter what
the AISC per ounce might be on any given quarter).
MAI.v: Revs, COGS and Gross margin
5
61.5 552.2 509.2
962.7
952.3 10.4
490.9
734.4 756.4
602.0
695.3
93.3-
487.6 298.3 298.2 80.3 744.3
763.0-
97.1
209.1
211.0-
5.6
5.3
3
C$m
10 Revenues
9 COGS
8 "gross profit"
7
6 5 4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
source: MAI filings, IKN ests
-4
1q22 2q22 3q22 4q22 1q23 2q23 3q23 4q23est
That wasn’t too bad, with mine site economics budgeted to suit the low production and sales.
However, once we add in the corporate and operation costs in the quarter, primarily
exploration, evaluation, G&A and salaries (as well as over half a million in non-cash share based
compensation), things get more expensive.
MAI.v: financial results
61.5
136.3
925.1
962.7
196.4
875.2
490.9
411.7
89.1
602.0
390.5
788.4-
487.6
458.5
39.0
80.3
726.5
645.2-
97.1
96.6
009.4-
5.6 7.6
2.0-
MAI.v: Revenues
11
10 9.094
9
8 7.269 6.784 6.5
7
6 5.16
5
4 3.08
3 1.79
2
1 0.206
0
Revenues C$m total exp
10 mine op inc
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6 source: company filings
1q22 2q22 3q22 4q22 1q23 2q23 3q23 4q23est
Most of those non-mine costs were in line with previous quarters, but exploration and
evaluation shows a big hike, coming in at $2.775m, due to two cost items coming in at the
same time:
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
C$m
source: company filings, IKN ests
C$m Min prop & exploration expenses, per qtr
3.0
2.5
Other
2.0 Los Verdes
La Fortuna
1.5
CdO
1.0 Santana
0.5
0.0
1q22 2q22 3q22 4q22 1q23 2q23 3q23
source: company filings

Drilling re-started at Santana as the company starts to define new resource ounces away from
the current mine ops at Nicho/Nicho Norte. We may see further costs in Q4 on that, but the
majority is done. At the same time, the next Cerro de Oro option payment became due and was
paid but as that’s an annual event, this line item should drop considerably in Q4.
,
The bottom line to the operating quarter: We expected a bad one, it came in worse due to very
light sales. That’s all about the continued delay to the Santana heap leach pad amendment
permit and we cover that below, but as the company ramped up its contract workforce, put
ounces on the pad and now has all the water its needs it should mark the nadir to production
and sales numbers. As for the silver lining to this quarter’s operational clouds, we can at least
consider that MAI isn’t selling its gold into the weakest point in the market and those ounces
that would have been produced in Q3 haven’t gone anywhere. Also, MAI again demonstrated its
ability to cut costs to the bones and preserve capital, as the one data point that’s made this
interminable wait for better production bearable is that the company hasn’t blown out its
financial structure and once things turn the corner, the benefits will flow to current
shareholders in at this price.
On that note we turn our attention to the balance sheet, where things are better looking. The
only real change to note on the overview charts is how the first $5m from the Auramet
financing deal for Cerro de Oro arrived after the end of the last quarter and while it’s less easy
to spot on the assets chart (we expect some of this to be fixed assets by the ends of the
quarter, but most of it still in cash) it’s obviously more visible on liabilities.
MAI.v: Assets
60
55
50 45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Cash treasury depleted somewhat during the
quarter, however that should perk up considerably come the 4q23 numbers and for three
reasons:
1) We expect MAI to run at an operating profit in the current quarter
2) The first $5m tranche from Auramet will not all get spent in Q4
3) The government of Mexico has made a second sales tax reimbursement, turning
C$3.3m of another current assets line item into cash.
It’s not easy to make an exact estimate on where cash will stand at the end of the quarter, but
our best guess of C$12.8m won’t be far out and what really matters is to know that MAI is not
under any real financial duress. That’s also true for working capital (below right), which stood
at $19.688m at end 3q23 and we forecast at nearly C$23m by the end of 2023. That’s all the
liquidity MAI needs to move forward on its plans, all it needs are those darned permits.
6
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
$m MAI.v: Liabilities per qtr
inventories 11
fixed 10
other current cash 9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
source: company filings
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
LT liabs
current liabs
MAI.v: Cash treasury per qtr
267.1 673.7
381.11 792.32 119.91 188.61 642.61 963.21
340.7 701.6 230.9
527.41 451.31
2.01 472.8
8.21
26
24
22
20
18
16
14 12 6.573 10 8
6 4
2
0
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
source: company filings
srallod
fo snoillim
MAI.v: Working Capital per qtr
42.1 865.6
449.11 653.42 255.22 186.02 887.91 496.41 24.41 654.51 805.71 562.22 482.81 198.91 816.02 866.91 9.22
26
24
22
20
18
16
14 12 10 8
6 4
2
0
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
source company filings
srallod
fo snoillim

So with the financial check-up largely done and promise of better things already for Q4, even
without moving up the production schedule to where we though MAI and Santana would be by
now, we arrive at the main sticking point for our Top Pick. We note that in the 3q23 MD&A
“Third Quarter Highlights and Outlook” section (p2-3), we had the following bullet points.
 A note on the complete Santana maiden resource
 A note on recovered ounces since inception
 A note on gold sales in Q3
 A note on the payment made on schedule for the Cerro de Oro project
 A note on cash&eq and working capital positions as at end quarter
 A note on the completion of the Auramet financing deal for Cerro de Oro
 A note on the receipt of sales tax from the government of Mexico
All clearly reticent to provide any sort of outlook on its production at Santana and that’s all
about the permit delay. As regards Cerro de Oro (CdO) that’s not an active issue and on asking
company President Doug Ramshaw about progress there, he was upbeat and said that things
were on schedule and they were looking to take advantage of a likely permit award window
that is expected to show before the Mexico General Elections (for President and Congress,
scheduled for June 2nd next year).
The issue is at Santana and that elusive amendment permit to enlarge the current heap leach
pad. There are signs of movement in the Mexican SEMARNAT bureau and we’ve seen both Orla
and Torex receive permits recently for open pit operations, which shows the “No New Permits”
declarations from AMLO at the top of the political tree are not in fact true. This was also the key
subject in my recent exchange with company President Doug Ramshaw and while the permits
are still not with the company, he was upbeat and said (I quote), “All indications are it’s a close
thing in terms of our back and forth with agencies etc”, while going on to admit it’s an obvious
source of frustration, for company insiders and shareholders alike.
We have no problem with the integrity of Ramshaw, Koningen and their team. We also applaud
the way they are fully aligned with shareholders and have kept the corporate structure intact
and in good financial health through 2022 and 2023 when first it was water, now the
amendment permit, that has slowed progress to a crawl. And if Ramshaw says “it’s a close
thing” in his opinion, he’s one of the few mining executives we can take at his word in this
sector so that’s not a problem, either. However and ultimately, the issue is not with the
company:
 We know Mexico’s political authorities are using heap leach mining permits to make a
political point
 We also know that a heap leach amendment permit is normally one of the most
straightforward and rote permits out there, with no reason to expect such delays
 An while all discussions and issues can be ironed out to everyone’s content, if the
directive comes down from the hierarchy not to award the permit, the permit will not
be awarded and we can stay “close” for and indefinite period
We have been patient up to now, but there are limits to everything. In this case, the beef isn’t
with the company, its plans or its management as they have been largely impeccable in their
treatment of shareholders, they are victims of circumstance as much as we retail on the
outside. The issue is time, or if you prefer time value of money, because with the market now
showing every signal of perking up I personally have too much of my portfolio tied into this
stock if stocks start to run and leave a permit-less MAI on the starting blocks. We’re
approaching a moment when decisions will have to be made, so with things reportedly “close”
on the Santana permit and Tax Loss Selling upon us, I’m going to give MAI a few more weeks
to show that permit. However, if things remain close-but-no-cigar into January 2024 it will be
time to sell at least half of this position, move MAI down from its Top Pick status and put the
cash raised to work in another junior goldies (and there are plenty to choose from). I stress, in
much the same way that I stressed recently when mulling over a complete sale of the excellent
copper play Amerigo, that this is not a sale I want to do but there comes a moment when too
7

much of the portfolio will be laying fallow if the market does what I and a lot of other people
expect it will do as inflation fears drop and the market looks to gold as a live alternative. So
that’s Q3 at Minera Alamos:
 Tiny levels of sales
 A strong balance sheet that’s a credit to the management
 Better production expected in Q4 without making it to the run rate we expected
 The wait for permits at Santana but also Cerro de Oro continues
If that last bullet is resolved in the next few weeks, expect MAI to rally hard on the news and
also expect me to hold every share I currently own, because the latent value in this company is
still remarkable. However, there’s always the option of selling a large chunk and buying them
back later once the politics of permits improves. It was good to see the stock rally last week
and that small move was its own weight off my mind, but we’re still a long way from the 75c
first price target that I firmly believe MAI to be capable of achieving and that’s bureaucracy for
you.
Stocks to Follow
There were three losers on the week (CTGO, PAU.cse, MENE.v) and two of those were just half
cent drops, while Contango (CTGO down 11.2%) put in a bigger loss after its recent good run.
Three other stocks remained unchanged (SOLG.to, MARI.to, SOMA.v) and that means 12
winners is we include the one we sold during the week. So not listing them all but the biggest
moves get their applause, starting in strict order with Minera IRL (MIRL.cse up 50.0%) but that
one doesn’t matter (see below). The real list starts with Top Pick Minera Alamos (MAI.v up
27.6%) and continues with Surge Copper (SURG.v up 21.4%), Rio2 Ltd (RIUO.v up 18.8%), the
now sold Western Exploration (WEX.v up 14.8%), Equinox (EQX up 13.1%) and let’s add
Fortuna Silver (FSM up 9.5%) to the roll of honour, too.
With the addition of Soma Gold (SOMA.v) to the Watch List and the closing of the spec trade in
Western Exploration (WEX.v) we still have 17 open positions on the list, three below our self-
imposed maximum, but the personal ownership roster is down to just 11 stocks. That’s quite
low and while there may be too many on the Watch List for long-term health, it’s also stands as
a testament to my Look-Don’t-Touch stance as we move into a potentially trappy final month of
the calendar year. Seven stocks are in the green, one is UNCH, nine are in the red.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.37 76.2% $0.75 first tgt, #1 idea
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Amerigo Res ARG.to hold C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.35 -0.7% Cu price better, will hold
Fortuna Silver FSM hold U$2.92 13-Aug-23 U$4.04 38.4% Finally moved, still want flip
Equinox Gold EQX STR BUY U$4.46 30-May-23 U$5.60 25.6% Leverage trade at U$2k/oz Au
Contango Ore CTGO BUY U$18.70 30-Jul-23 U$21.03 12.5% FY24 production, now moving
SolGold SOLG.to BUY C$0.265 19-Feb-23 C$0.155 -41.5% Cu in Ecuador, M&A tgt
Newcore Gold NCAU.v SPEC BUY C$0.205 23-Oct-22 C$0.14 -31.7% Showing signs of life
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v BUY C$0.83 22-Apr-18 C$0.19 -77.1% Cheap on permit probs, appeal
SPECULATIVE TRADES
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v SPEC BUY C$0.72 16-May-21 C$0.89 23.6% drilling again
Minera IRL MIRL.cse avoid C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.015 -92.3% leaving list soon (good)
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
8

Likely buy, cheap entry
Marimaca Copper MARI.to WATCH C$3.65 26-May-23 C$3.50 -4.1% showing
Ero Copper ERO.to WATCH C$18.94 22-Oct-23 C$18.41 -2.8% High quality Cu prod, cheap
Argonaut Gold AR.to WATCH C$0.395 22-Oct-23 C$0.43 8.9% potential fliptrade around Xmas
Soma Gold SOMA.v WATCH C$0.66 26-Nov-23 C$0.66 0.0% small gold prod in Colombia
Surge Copper SURG.v WATCH C$0.11 18-Jun-23 C$0.085 -22.7% tinycap Cu in BC Canada
Provenance Gold PAU.cse WATCH C$0.085 8-Oct-23 C$0.10 17.6% Idaho gold drill play
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.63 6-Dec-20 C$0.31 -50.8% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2023 date closed close price
Altiplano Metals APN.v jan'23 C$0.31 17-Sep-21 C$0.17 -45.2% delayed and will dilute soon
Western Copper WRN.to mar'23 C$2.02 13-Nov-22 C$2.32 14.9% sold on reduced M&A prob.
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v may'23 C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$1.75 -43.0% Closing on legal action news
Amerigo Res ARG.to may'23 C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.48 8.8% sold 20% to raise cash
Amerigo Res ARG.to oct'23 C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.21 -11.0% sold 10% raise to cash
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v oct'23 C$0.265 25-Apr-21 C$0.12 -54.7% sold raise to cash
Faraday Copper FDY.to oct'23 C$0.79 26-Mar-23 C$0.68 -11.4% sold raise to cash
AbraSilver Res. ABRA.v oct'23 C$0.36 4-Dec-22 C$0.28 -22.2% sold raise to cash
Orecap inv OCI.v oct'23 C$0.04 20-Nov-22 C$0.03 -25.0% sold raise to cash
Western Explor. WEX.v nov'23 C$1.87 9-Apr-23 C$0.60 -67.9% poor trade, cutting loss
2015 to 2022 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on some of our covered companies:
Western Exploration (WEX.v): POSITION CLOSED. The final mention for the time being
but, as noted last week, there’s always the possibility of returning to this stock if it starts to
deliver on its original promise at some point in 2024. But before now and then it’s going to have
to raise capital and do a better job of exploring Aura than it did this year. If this failed trade
turns into my sacrifice to the Market Gods before the gold complex rockets higher then so be it,
it’d be a small price to pay.
Soma Gold (SOMA.v): ADDED TO WATCH LIST. Just because this remained UNCH while all
round jumped higher does not mean “I was right” to consider the stock the way I did last week,
as it could have gone either way on Friday and
only took a few sellers to turn a potential big win
into a flat week. Yes it’s undoubtedly cheap on
paper, but as noted in the conclusion to last
week’s closer look at SOMA “…there’s more to
this game than simple math” and while certainly
attractive, the risks of betting on a small and
essentially single asset operation in a country
such as Colombia are clear. SOMA is the type of
stock that moves up once the obvious vehicles
for new money into the sector have made their
move.
There could be a trade here, a lot depends on
the magic combo of entry price, timing and the macro backdrop.
Argonaut Gold (AR.to): For a moment, it looked as tough AR.to would slip its field and run a
lot higher. In the end the 3c added (+7.5%) was still a good performance, but there were
clearly traders willing and able to take near-term profits come Friday.
This is a stock that may end up making me look stupid, another potential “one that got away”
to add to the list of missed trades in my life. That’s okay, I don’t mind looking stupid and while
9

it’s on the Watch List for very good reasons, I much prefer to see what Canadian Tax Loss
Selling season does to its share price before getting proactive.
Equinox Gold (EQX) (EQX.to): The one I keep going on about as a great way to play gold
leverage turned into a great way to play gold leverage last week, up 13.5% with plenty of
appetite from larger buyers. EQX is now in great position to benefit from any further upside in
gold and the producers’ sector, this gold price is right in its sweet spot for out-sized gains, both
in absolute and comparative terms. Hope you’re like me and have all you wanted at lower
prices.
Fortuna Silver (FSM) (FVI.to): Also happy about the way FSM traded and we’re now above
the U$4.00 level, the place where I’ll start to consider selling this into the market and taking my
profit. Said it before and will say it again now, this was always set up as a near-term/medium-
term play, with a timeline that includes taking advantage of the Q3 financials re-rate and then
selling in Q4 (or the start of 1q24 latest). THAT PLAN IS NOT CHANGING. If you think I’m
leaving cash on the table by selling at some point with a U$4-handle, that’s fine and I may even
agree if you push me hard enough, but this is as much a personal portfolio strategy trade as
anything else. I already have cash to throw at the market post-Tax Loss Selling season and if I
can build the warchest a little further, that’s good. I’m sticking with the plan here and if the sale
comes, the money will soon find a new home.
Aldebaran Resources (ALDE.v): Friday evening saw ALDE send its monthly mailer to
shareholders and the main point of interest was to know that the new season of drilling at Altar
is advancing well. To quote the mailer, “Progress has been good on the first four holes of the
campaign – ALD-23-162EXT, ALD-23-166EXT, ALD-23-194EXT, and ALD-23-234 – with assays
being sent to the lab soon.”
That’s one new hole and three extensions from the holes left before the Andean winter closed
in and stopped the 2022/23 campaign. So with samples going to the labs “soon”, let’s count
somewhere around February for the results. It would be nice (for a change) to get regular NRs
on assays in the year to come.
Amerigo Resources (ARG.to): Although ARG closed a penny under my personal cost
average, it put in a decent rally on the back of the copper price move and all while going ex-divi
for the latest quarterly 3c payment.
Contango ORE (CTGO): It was Friday’s trading that
did the damage at CTGO and while I’d have preferred
a winning week for the stock (I’m not buying any
more, after all) this move doesn’t perturb much and
has all the hallmarks of a small/medium sized player
taking profits and raising cash to go play in another
place.
Minera IRL (MIRL.cse): Though up 50% on the
week, the move means nothing and came as Friday
morning saw 18,000 shares mark the price, a sum
total of C$270 traded (two hundred and seventy Canadian dollars). More importantly, the time
limit for the COFIDE loan is now up and we haven’t heard a thing from the company yet.
The Copper Basket
After forty-nine weeks of 2023, The Copper Basket shows a loss of 17.88% to level stakes:
10

company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Solaris Res SLS.to 6.44 148.15 802.97 5.42 -15.8%
2 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.22 92.882 325.09 3.50 8.7%
3 Western Copper WRN.to 2.41 151.597 268.33 1.77 -26.6%
4 Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to 1.92 105.96 154.70 1.46 -24.0%
5 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.78 169.819 151.14 0.89 14.1%
6 Hot Chili HCH.v 0.78 119.455 111.09 0.93 19.2%
7 Faraday Copper FDY.to 0.54 175.2 108.62 0.62 14.8%
8 Oroco Res OCO.v 0.91 216.13 98.34 0.455 -50.0%
9 Regulus Res. REG.v 1.10 124.509 92.14 0.74 -32.7%
10 Pan Global Res PGZ.v 0.46 242.74 43.69 0.18 -60.9%
11 Kodiak Copper KDK.v 1.12 56.2 41.03 0.73 -34.8%
12 QC Copper QCCU.v 0.165 162.815 21.98 0.135 -18.2%
13 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.16 106.25 15.94 0.15 -6.3%
14 Atacama Copper ACOP.v 0.16 35.94 7.55 0.21 31.3%
15 Libero Copper LBC.v 0.155 119.58 2.39 0.02 -87.1%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg -17.88%
A rebound to levels last seen in late October and a
sharp turnaround in fortunes for the copper The Copper Basket 2023, weekly evolution
15%
explorecos of this world, the Copper Basket 10%
average improved by a handsome 6.34% thanks 5%
to 12 winners (no long list), zero losers (a rarity) 0%
-5%
and three priced unchanged since last week
-10%
(MARI.to, LBC.v, ACOP.v). There were some big -15%
percentage among those winners too, notably -20%
among the laggards and the dogs. Element 29 -25%
-30%
(ECU.v up 30.4%) and Kodiak Copper (KDK.v up
30.4%) led the way, and were followed by Oroco
Resource Corp (OCO.v up 21.3%), QC Copper &
Gold (QCCU.v up 17.4%) and we’ll add a cheer for
Solaris (SLS.to up 9.5%), Pan Global (PGZ.v up 9.5%), Faraday (FDY.to up 8.8%) and
Aldebaran (ALDE.v up 8.5%), too. So in the end I mentioned eight out of the 12 winners.
The power behind the move was
obviously the new bullish backdrop in
copper prices and this ten-day chart
shows how the nascent move we
registered last weekend blossomed into
a full-blown rally. It was constructive all
week, then copper moved into overdrive
on the back of the Jay Powell comments
(see intro) and cracked the U$3.90/lb
line [EDIT: today Monday saw this
reverse and back to the low-U$3.80s].
That’s a good move and a welcome
sight, but I said as much during trading
Friday and will say it again today (8), I
don't trust it much and there are plenty
of reasons to consider there’s a ceiling on this move [EDIT 2, sadly, that thought became reality
too quickly in today’s Monday sell-off].
We begin this week’s carefully curated market comment section with confirmation that the
TC/RC prices we reported in IKN757, as the first deal struck between Antofagasta (ANTO.L) and
Chinese smelters has been copied by others(4):
11
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2yluj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6gua ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3pes ht01 ht71 ht42 ts1tco ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5von ht21 ht91 ht62 dr3ced
source: IKN calcs

Miner Freeport-McMoRan FCX.N reached agreement on Friday with Chinese smelter
Jiangxi Copper 600362.SS for 2024 copper concentrate treatment and refining charges
at $80 a metric ton and 8 cents per pound, a source said. The agreed charges are the
same as reached by Chilean miner Antofagasta ANTO.L and Chinese smelters earlier
on Friday and so will be considered the benchmark charges for 2024 copper
concentrate treatment and refining
Here’s SP Global on the same news (5) and adding an angle on the recent events at Cobre
Panama (see Regional Politics for more on that).
Major Chinese smelters were initially reluctant to accept TC/RC at $80/mt, as global
copper concentrate supply is expected to remain in surplus in 2024 amid expectations
of rising mine production.
However, recent disruption at First Quantum's Cobre Panama mine overturned this
view and raised the concerns of tight supply.
Spot TC/RCs were falling significantly from the news of Cobre Panama's production
suspension, after the first agreement between Jinchuan Nonferrous and Antofagasta
on Nov. 17.
For what it’s worth the new agreement for TC at U$80/tonne compares to the current reported
spot price of U$70.10/mt CIF in China as smelters scramble to secure feed. The 2024 price
seems to strike a happy medium between a tight market in 2024 and the likelihood that the
current bottleneck is temporary
Next up, more bullish views from crowd favourite Andy Home, whose Reuters column this week
entitled (6) “China's rising copper imports belie manufacturing gloom” noted the juxtaposition
between China’s continued lacklustre manufacturing and PMI data and the appetite for metals
imports, particularly copper. As usual it’s worth reading his entire article but this time we’ll just
excerpt from the end and how, according to Home, “…it is hard to avoid the conclusion that
some of the copper entering China is going into a black hole of non-visible inventory build,
either commercial or strategic or quite possibly a combination of the two.” That thought
dovetails nicely with the data we’ve been tracking in the last few weeks about dropping
inventory levels for copper in SHFE and
LME Asia warehouses. There’s even more
on that today (see below) and it also goes
with this report from Bloomie (7) showing
how copper premiums have risen sans
cesse over the last three months, with this
chart to match (right). The China market is
willing to pay over the odds for physical
supply, though that also fits in with the
normal stock/de-stock cycle on the Chinese
mainland that normally reaches its peak in
December, i.e. in the next couple of weeks.
Indeed, it’s also time when new supply
typically hits the physical market from
State-owned entities (8), which are obliged
by law to liquidate any excess inventory by year-end and as that includes any stockpiled
copper, that provides a new and temporary supply line.
Summing all that up (and taking into account the new inventory data as seen below), there is
indeed good reason to have seen copper rise last week and not just because it was in the
basket of goods affected by Jerome Powell’s pontificating. However and be clear, the signals of
supply deficits now coming from the market are likely to be temporary and come the New Year,
demand always drops away as fully stocked companies get on with the job of turning their raw
metal into widgets. As for the Cobre Panama effect, while there are longer term supply/demand
calculations to consider and having that mine off-line (or simply unable to get its produce to
market due to the port blockade), history and La Escondida’s periodic strike actions have taught
us that prices don’t tend to stay moved by disruptions in even the biggest mining operations.
12

Bottom line: I remain leery about this copper price move, the same leeriness I get when those
in the higher echelons tell me there’s no recession on the way. We like the way copper has
rallied and dragged stocks its stocks (such as Amerigo) back higher but there’s still more to like
and believe about the rally in gold than that of copper.
We move to the inventories data, starting with the end-month round-up and long-term tracking
charts. This edition has an eye-catching first chart:
Copper inventories: percentage held per exchange
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
13
21.naJ ram yam luj pes von 31.naJ ram yam luj pes von 41.naj ram yam luj pes von 51.naj ram yam luj pes von 61.naj ram yam luj pes von 71.naj ram yam luj pes von 81
naj
ram yam luj pes von 91
naj
ram yam luj pes von 02
naj
ram yam luj pes von 12
naj
ram yam luj pes von 22
naj
ram yam luj pes von 32naj ram yam luj pes von
LME Shanghai Comex source: Cochilco
While overall world inventories have remained steady (below), the drain on Asia stocks and the
rise in LME (particularly North America) tonnages mean that a new record percentage of world
stocks are now held by LME, at 79.9% of the whole lot (and almost 50% of the copper under
futures markets roofs is in New Orleans).
Key Cu inventory aggregate, 2012 to date
1000000
900000
800000
700000
600000
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
21.naJ ram yam luj pes von 31.naJ ram yam luj pes von 41.naj ram yam luj pes von 51.naj ram yam luj pes von 61.naj ram yam luj pes von 71.naj ram yam luj pes von 81
naj
ram yam luj pes von 91
naj
ram yam luj pes von 02
naj
ram yam luj pes von 12
naj
ram yam luj pes von 22
naj
ram yam luj pes von 32naj ram yam luj pes von
Mt Cu
Comex
Shanghai
LME
source: Cochilco
That monthlies give an indication of the ongoing tight supply situation to China end-users
presently, but the real fun begins when we move to our regular weekly check on world copper
inventories with data as usual from Cochilco:
 The aggregate of the three world systems dropped by a significant 15,712 metric
tonnes (mt) last week to close at 218,230m, so just as it looked as though stocks were
beginning to build again they’ve taken a sharp leg down on reported heavy trading of
Chinese contracts.
 The Shanghai SHFE was centre of all action, as stocks dropped by 9,729mt to close the
week at 26,129mt. That’s a sizeable draw down at any moment, but from the low levels
currently held it’s very big and means this weekend’s is a new modern day record low
for the system. Add this data point to the premiums currently being paid in China and
it’s indicative how much barrel bottom scraping is going on at the moment.
 The LME joined in the trend, with net outflows of 4,275mt Cu to finish the week at
174,250mt with Asia warehouses accounting for 2,075mt of that drop. Once again, we
point out that over half the total is housed at the virtual roach motel that is New
Orleans, far away from the markets that need physical.
 The only slight surprise on the week was seeing Comex add 1,861mt to its stocks after
several consecutive weeks of draw downs. Friday’s total stands at 19,837mt.
The dedicated SHFE chart shows that historic low in comparative terms, not that much lower
than the worst of 2021, but the thicker black line is still the lowest one for the first time ever.
We can also see how there are perhaps three more weeks of potential pressure on stocks to
avoid the so-called “stock out” (to quote the ex-Goldman anal yst) before seasonality moves to

a slack demand period and stocks bounce. Because they always do.
SHFE copper inventory levels, 2018 to 2023
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
14
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
MT Cu 2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
source: Cochilco data
We also include the long term chart, but that’s not very illustrative so…
Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2014 to date
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
31'13ceD dr32 ht51 ht7 ht03 dn22 ht71 ht9 ts1von ht42 ht71 ht01 dn2tcO 7102ts1naJ ht62 ht81 ht01 dr3ced ht52 102ht72rpa ht91 ht11 9102
dr3bef
102ht82rpa ts12 ht31 0202ht5naj 202ht92ram ts12 ht31 0202ht6ced ht82 dr32 ht51 ht7 202ht03naj 22ht42rpA ht71 22ht9tco 3202
naJ
ht62 ht81 ht01peS dr3ceD
Mt Cu
|
source: Cochilco
…this chart using the same dataset but focused on 2022 to date shows how this is the new low,
but we’ve seen these levels twice before in the post-Covid age. Then followed the early year
rebound, the only question is by how much.
Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2022 to date
300000
275000
250000
225000
200000
175000
150000
125000
100000
75000
50000
25000
0
2202dn2naj dr32 ht31 ht6ram ht72 ht71 ht8 ht92 ht91 ht01 ts13 ts12 ht11 dn2tco 22dr32tco ht31 ht4ced 202ht52ced ht51 ht5beF ht62 ht91 ht9 ht03 ts12 ht11 dn2luJ dr32 ht31guA dr3peS ht42 ht51 ht5voN ht62
Mt Cu
|
source: Cochilco
Now for notes on a couple of basket stocks:
Dogs wagging tails (KDK.v) (ECU.v) (OCO.v) (QCCU.v) (PGZ.v): Notable how some of
the worst hit stocks in 2023 to date were the
biggest movers as cash returned to the copper
explorecos. First up Kodiak Copper (KDK.v)
moved up by 30.4%, this time last week it was
down 50.0%. Then Element 29 Resources
(ECU.v) also moved up by 30.4%, this time last
week it was down 28.1%. Third placed mover
Oroco Resource Corp (OCO.v) moved up 21.7%,

this time last week it was down 58.8%%. Next up QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v) moved up by
17.4%, this time last week it was down 30.3%. As Pan Global Resources (PGZ.v) also did fairly
well, up 9.1% on the week but down 64.1% this time last week, we can argue that only the
broken Libero (LBC.v) missed out on the fun at the dog end of the list. Those of you looking for
high risk speculations may have the right sub-sector here. If I had to choose one it would be
Pan Global, as it has a real project on its hands and the cash and the ongoing drill program that
will deliver news to market on a regular basis…we expect good drill numbers, too). But for the
time being I’ll aim cash at precious metals plays, rather than anything copper, that’s just me.
Oroco Resource Corp (OCO.v): OCO duly closed its placement on time and then filed its PEA
on Santo Tomas, enough news to get it into the first ranks of movers last week and the stock
back into the mid-40c range as copper finally got bids. Our opinion remains unchanged on this
stock, look somewhere else for a real buyout opportunity.
Solaris Resources (SLS.to): Last Thursday, Canada’s biggest band of mining enviro
busybodies, Mining Watch sent me this last week (Yes, I’m on the mailing list and yes, I know,
but it comes and it’s my job and I read it) (9), dated November 30th with the title “Indigenous
Organization Opposes Sale of Controversial Warintza Mining Project in Ecuadorian Amazon”. As
it happens, the indigenous locals around the SLS project published a statement on November
20th and it got rebooted last week as talk started of a potential sale to Chinese capitals (no
surprise there) does the rounds. The mailer makes the Shuar Arutam position crystal clear,
here’s an excerpt:
Indigenous communities affected by the Warintza project warn potential buyers of the
project, stating that its operators lack a social license to operate.
“We oppose any entity providing additional investment for this project in our territory or
any attempt to sell the project to another company using and promoting the name of
the Shuar people” reads the statement issued on November 20th. The PSHA also
recounts its historical resistance to Canadian mining on its territory, noting that PSHA
evicted the last buyer of the project, Lowell Mineral Exploration from its territory in
2006.
Solaris Resources Inc. does not comply with international standards of Free, Prior, and
Informed Consultation, as it seeks to impose the Warintza project by promoting division
among communities. Jaime Palomino, president of PSHA, elaborates: "The Shuar
Arutam people have consistently rejected the Warintza project for many years. Despite
this, the company insists on promoting the project by dividing the communities and
trying to reach agreements with other Indigenous organizations. Both the company and
the Ecuadorian government should respect our own government structure and our
autonomy. Therefore, we are unaware of and reject any agreement that is or has been
signed on our behalf."
This publication has warned on the “divide and conquer” strategy adopted by SLS on many
previous occasions, one that did as badly for Bear Creek Santa Ana as it’s doing here. In this
case, SLS has working agreements with the small community immediately adjacent to Warintza
(Warints) and consistently ignores the much larger anti-mining stance taken by the “Pueblo
Shuar Arutam (PSHA)”. It’s the equivalent of doing a deal with a parish council of 20 members
and ignoring the regional government and its governor.
Western Copper (WRN.to) (WRN): The mystery of what Rio Tinto (RTZ) with its strategic
position in WRN was resolved last week when, at the end of its 18 month co-operation
agreement, we were served this NR (10) and here are a couple of excerpts:
Rio Tinto has agreed to subscribe for and purchase 3,468,208 common shares at a
price of C$1.73 per share for aggregate gross proceeds of approximately C$6 million,
resulting in Rio Tinto’s ownership increasing to approximately 9.7% of Western’s
outstanding common shares.
And…
“…the Company and Rio Tinto will enter into an amended and restated investor rights
agreement, whereby, subject to certain conditions, including ownership thresholds, Rio
Tinto will have certain rights for a period of 18 months from closing of the
investment…”
15

See the NR for details of the terms, suffice to say here that in return for a placement WRN
didn’t need (it has plenty of cash), the JV# has booted any proactive decision another 18
months down the road. The market reacted with a round of apathy, as well it should.
The Producer Basket
After 49 weeks of 2023, the Producer Basket shows a gain of 18.06% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 47.20 1152.6 47.49 41.20 -12.7%
2 Barrick GOLD 17.18 1761.54 31.23 17.73 3.2%
3 Agnico Eagle AEM 51.99 488.9 26.59 54.39 4.6%
4 Wheaton PM WPM 39.08 451.963 22.39 49.55 26.8%
5 Kinross Gold KGC 4.09 1256.1 7.46 5.94 45.2%
6 Alamos Gold AGI 10.11 393.1 5.84 14.86 47.0%
7 B2Gold BTG 3.57 1074.567 3.66 3.41 -4.5%
8 Hecla Mining GFI 5.56 610.491 3.13 5.13 -7.7%
9 Eldorado Gold EGO 8.36 185.73 2.51 13.52 61.7%
10 Wesdome Gold WDOFF 5.53 147.526 0.95 6.47 17.0%
All prices and stock quotes in U$ Port. avg 18.06%
A veritable peach of a week for the precious metals producers and it shouldn’t come as much
surprise to learn that all ten of our basket components registered gains, from the relatively
subdued +4.4% from stalwart Wheaton (WPM), to the median performances that matched the
benchmark GDX (up 8.5%) and its more volatile cousin GDXJ (up exactly 9.98%), to the week’s
bigger winners such as Wesdome (WDOFF up 18.9%), Eldorado (EGO up 13.0%) and B2Gold
(BTG up 11.4%). And as we’re fortunate not to have included Franco-Nevada in our list this
year, we also dodged the Panama Cobre bullet and pulled further ahead of the GDX, which
does (of course). We’re now 7% up on the competition and looking good as the final month of
2023 rolls out.
The 2023 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
comparative to GDX control
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
Wesdome Gold (WDO.to (WDOFF): The biggest mover on our list last week, WDO is a
prime beneficiary of the new high gold price due to its stickier than expected balance sheet
position that we documented in IKN756 dated November 12th when running the numbers on its
3q23 financials. At the time of the Q3 report, new WDO CEO Anthea Bath insisted the company
had all the capital it required to complete Kiena Deep and see those higher grades running
through the mill, but gold over C$2,700/oz makes that far easier to believe and the result was
the leverage we saw in the last three days of the week [EDIT: I’ve taken the liberty of updating
the chart to include today Monday December 4th, as today’s trading franked WDO’s recent
positive divergence]
16
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2yluj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6gua ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3pes ht01 ht71 ht42 ts1tco ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5von ht21 ht91 ht62 dr3ced
The 2023 Producer Basket: Percentage difference
between GDX benchmark & basket (negative = IKN ahead)
4.0%
ikn 2.0%
gdx control 0.0%
-2.0%
-4.0%
-6.0%
-8.0%
source: NYSE, IKN calcs -10.0%
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2yluj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6gua ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3pes ht01 ht71 ht42 ts1tco ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5von ht21 ht91 ht62 dr3ced
source: IKN calcs, NYSE data

The TinyCaps List
After 49 weeks of 2023, the TinyCaps show a gain of 19.34% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Aurelius Min AUL.v 0.07 49.787 1.00 0.02 -71.4%
Coast Copper COCO.v 0.045 64.001 2.88 0.045 0.0%
District Metals DMX.v 0.075 86.891 15.21 0.175 133.3%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.13 69.962 4.55 0.065 -50.0%
Manitou Gold MTU.v 0.02 344.568 18.95 0.055 175.0%
Nine Mile Metals NINE.cse 0.29 57.025 7.41 0.13 -55.2%
Palamina Corp PA.v 0.08 65.285 7.83 0.12 50.0%
Precipitate Gold PRG.v 0.075 130.367 9.13 0.07 -6.7%
South Star STS.v 0.55 40.129 27.69 0.69 25.5%
Viva Gold VAU.v 0.14 106.721 13.87 0.13 -7.1%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 19.34%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $20m. They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a
little and allowed sub-U$20m market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, but it was a particularly depressing exercise to trawl through the whole of the TSXV and find companies
that are small enough, but with life in them. The vast majority of sub-$20m stocks are broken stocks, either
traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2023. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
The TinyCaps basket was slightly more interesting than the drudge of the last few weeks, but
still nothing special. Three unchanged stocks
TinyCaps, 2023 weekly tracker
(AUL.v, COCO.v, MTU.v), three downers (DMX.v, 50%
LMS.v, STS.v) and four winners (NINE.cse, PA.v, 45%
40%
PRG.v, VAU.v) including the biggest move from 35%
Palamina Corp (PA.v up 26.3%) as the now 30%
25%
permitted and cashed-up exploreco got a bit of 20%
love. 15%
10%
5%
0%
17 ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2yluj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6gua ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3pes ht01 ht71 ht42 ts1tco ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5von ht21 ht91 ht62 dr3ced
source: IKN calcs, TSX data

Viva Gold (VAU.v): A bit late to this, as the NR (11) came out on November 21st but we
should note that Viva Gold (VAU.v) now has a placement open and a plan to sell “…up to
16,666,666 units (the "Units") at a price of CDN$0.12 per Unit for gross proceeds of up to
CDN$2,000,000. Each Unit will consist of one common share in the capital of the Company (a
“Share”) and one whole non-transferable common share purchase warrant (a “Warrant”). Each
whole Warrant will be exercisable to acquire one Share at an exercise price of CDN$0.18 per
Share for a period of 36 months from the date of issuance.” To quote exactly. That could turn
out to be a well-timed placement and assuming they raise the full amount, the plan is use the
funds to drill its Tonopah project.
South Star Battery Metals (STS.v): Definitely the most interesting NR from a tinycap last
week (12), as STS is now on board with the US government’s plan to wean itself off foreign
(read “Chinese”) imports for strategic minerals:
“Vancouver, Canada, November 29, 2023 – South Star Battery Metals Corp. (“South
Star” or the “Company”) (TSXV: STS) (OTCQB: STSBF), is pleased to announce that it
has received a US$3.2 million grant (equaling approximately CA$4.4 million) from the
Department of Defense (“DoD”) under the Defense Production Act (“DPA”) Title III
authorities utilizing funds appropriated by the Inflation Reduction Act, to advance a
National Instrument 43-101 Feasibility Study (“FS”) for the BamaStar Graphite Project,
South Star’s flagship graphite project in the USA, located in central Alabama.”
The grant money is useful, but for this desk seeing Uncle Sam ready and willing to fund and
support the STS project in Alabama bodes well for the longer-term of thi9s project. Please note
this is ostensibly STS’s second string project, as the Brazil mine is about to go into production.
A lot to like here and the market cap hasn’t run higher to date.
Nine Mile Metals (NINE.cse): Last clownshow at NINE continues, as its weird financing
plans (see IKN758 last weekend) was stopped in their track by the market authorities (13).
You’d have thought they’d make sure the plan were laid before announcing it, but that’s not the
case and now, instead, NINE plans to raise its $500k without the contentious bonus shares
attached. Instead the loan will run as a classic convertible with a 10c strike, which opens the
door wide to a bit of toxic death spiral short action once it’s closed. Avoid, please avoid. There
are so many better tinycap options out there with the same potential upside and much less
downside risk. This stock will not be in the 2024 TinyCaps basket.
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future
I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
First Quantum (FM.to) and the Panama Cobre mess
The news early last week that Panama’s Supreme Court of justice (CSJ) had ruled the contract
between the First Quantum (FM.to) owned Panama Cobre mine and the State, in a unanimous
decision of 9-0 on environmental and social grounds, may have made lots of headlines when
the news hit but the market took it largely in its stride. In IKN758 last week we ran over the
potential scenarios and while I was wrong in my more level-headed guess that the CSJ would
not go down the “Justice Route” and rule against the contract, to quote The Dude Lebowski
“That’s just your opinion, man.” More importantly, the FM price held at roughly the place we
expected once the news was out. Here’s that excerpt:
“…a reasonable estimate for FM.to Cobre Panama priced at zero today would be around U$9, so
perhaps C$11.20 and we may see that type of number in panic selling on any adverse decision for
the company. That would be the main window of opportunity and while we’re not going to see the
C$20 or C$25 levels again in the near future, once the doomsday scenarios for FM are discounted
and the market sees there will either be a 1) new deal struck or 2) a courtroom win for FM with
massive compensation awarded the share price will recover.
As this chart shows, FM only dipped under the C$11 price line once during the week and
18

C$11.20 was only 10c or so off the median.
The question now is whether there is any near-term upside to trade and overall I’d say there
wasn’t much, not for the time being at least. We’re in a situation where the Panama
government has filed papers to suspend operations completely, we also have the FM dedicated
port facility blocked by protesters and their boats. The former is a medium-term threat to the
mine, the latter is a present day issue that is affecting the mine already and stopping vital
supplies from entering, as much as any finished concentrate from leaving. Under such
circumstances, there was no surprise when FM furloughed 7,000 of the Panama Cobre
workforce last week (who promptly took to the streets to march and protest their job losses).
And as we’ve pointed out from the start of this mess, the underlying driver of the acceleration
in protests and the howls from government opposition is the upcoming Presidential and
Congressional election, slated for May 2024. That date is now an active part of the mix and this
controversy isn’t going anywhere until we get to the other side of the elections, some six
months from now. We’re also going to see Panama Cobre used as election policy fodder by all
and sundry, so the “Vote for me and we’ll get to the bottom of this corruption and throw the
guilty in jail” lines of political campaigning” is going to be popular. That won’t make for a
conducive backdrop for FM and its attempts to continue operations.
As for the medium or longer-term, as noted previously FM has a very strong case to present to
any international tribunal, but those cases take years to reach resolution and in the meantime,
anything might happen (including new negotiations and a dela of some sort with the incoming
government, whoever might win). As such, there is a baseline to the share price drop and that
seems to have been reached, but for the time being I don’t see a scenario under which FM
rallies to a level that would offer enough reward for any speculative trade. As far as this desk is
concerned, this story is one worth revisiting in May next year and not before.
Argentina: A new President and a mining minister change
We remind readers that by the IKN760 arrives in your inbox next weekend, Argentina will have
a new President as Javier Milei is set to take over on the morning of Sunday, December 10th.
Hilarity will ensue, Argentina will presumably get its day in the sun on Monday 11th and those of
you looking to trade the news can find a suitable set-up.
However, we also need to report an update from last weekend’s Regional Politics section. Until
this week, the mining lawyer Sergio Arbeleche was widely assumed to be Milei’s pick as
Secretary (i.e. Minister) of Mining but at some point last week (14), around the time Arbeleche
met with the outgoing Secretary of Mining Fernanda Ávila, jungledrums about him not taking
the job began to do the rounds and then this weekend, news broke that the current Energy
Secretary, Flavia Royón, would move over and become Secretary of Mining in the new Milei
cabinet. That’s quite a change of tack for Milei, bringing in a minister from the outgoing
“enemy” Alberto Fernández government to run what may become one of the key growth
motors in the years to come. A slightly odd situation, as under normal circumstances in
Argentina you wouldn’t get a name attached to a ministerial role before everything is agreed on
unofficial terms and unfounded rumours about Arbeleche’s stand-down quickly started doing
the rounds (we’re not going there).
19

Market Watching
The IKN Weekly, gold and PM stocks in Q4
Though this might start out as sounding like an exercise in horn-tooting, it isn’t and the real
message comes at the end. The IKN Weekly has been fairly consistent in its calls regarding gold
and gold stocks this quarter. They began in IKN750
dated October 1st and the intro note “Gold better
placed than copper”, which is as prosaic a title line as
they come. Equally, the next week (when the
ongoing Gaza conflict was added to the geopolitical
mix, IKN751 dated October 8th began with the follow-
up intro note, “Gold still better placed than copper”.
Here’s how gold (GC00 is the gold continuous
contract) has done versus copper (HG00, copper
continuous contract) since then (right).
The next week we started with some specific stock
picks and while both trades were already open and
running, our choices in IKN752 dated October 15th
were Equinox Gold (EQX) (EQX.to) “if gold continues to rally” and Fortuna Silver (FSM) (FVI.to)
“if gold stops rallying” and remained unchanged in price a while. As things turned out that
particular day…
…I probably got them the wrong way around, as FSM has been a stellar performer over the last
two months while EQX has been merely good. We also kept on fishing for value aong beaten
down gold producers and in IKN754 dated October 29th: highlighted a stock that normally
wouldn’t get such close coverage on these pages due to its market cap size, but the attraction
of “Eldorado Gold (EGO) (ELD.to): An improving Tier 2 producer” was too obvious to pass over.
As this next chart shows, comparing EGO to spot gold and the GDX benchmark, it took a month
or so for EGO to catch a real bid and it had to wait for the current and ongoing rally in gold
bullion for its move, but the last two weeks have been very good for EGO and its rally has left
the GDX in the dust.
20

However, Eldorado is a stock we’re tracking rather than one I personally own, different from
the closer coverage we gave to EQX and FSM in IKN755 dated November 5th: “Equinox Gold
(EQX) 3q23 production and financials” and IKN756 dated November 12th: “Fortuna Silver (FSM)
(FVI.to) 3q23 financials” as those two stock delivered their much-anticipated Q3 numbers. Long
story short, we had no major issues with the EQX quarter and liked what FSM reported a lot, its
Q3 fully living up to our high expectations (it was why we bought the stock in the first place, of
course). Here’s a second tracking chart of those squiggly lines compared to spot gold and both
have done well since reporting, but with a special round of applause for Fortuna.
Which brings us almost up to date with our highlighted precious metals stocks in Q4, leaving
just the last two weeks’ worth of coverage. In IKN757 dated November 19th we ran “Argonaut
Gold (AR.to) (ARNGF) and an impending trade set-up” and in IKN758 dated November 26th: “An
introduction to Soma Gold (SOMA.v)”, two smaller and arguably more speculative trade ideas.
Here’s the last two weeks compared with gold (GLD) and arrows to show when those reports
dropped:
Those haven’t moved much yet (and please see the update on Argonaut Gold AR.to, below) but
without beating round the bush, we don’t want them to just yet. In the case of AR, there’s a
potential trade around the end of the year if the price and timing works out, while SOMA is an
interesting newcomer and making good money at its small operation in Colombia, but there are
risks involved and for the time being, it’s more a case of tracking its development to see if the
market allows a cheap entry point.
To round off the contextual part of this note, even though we’ve called and preferred the
opportunities presented by gold over copper we’ve also run analyses on a couple of copper
stocks in the same period, namely Ero Copper (ERO) (ERO.to) and Amerigo Resources
(ARG.to). Regarding ARG, this is an open position and personally speaking, still one of my
largest holdings despite having sold a couple of small tranches in order to raise treasury cash.
Therefore it got ongoing coverage in IKN756 dated November 12th: “Amerigo Resources
(ARG.to) 3q23 financials” and while we were happy enough with what has already been
telegraphed as a soft quarter due to the storm-related stoppages and repairs in early Q3, as
regular readers know I came quite close to selling ARG in the period when spot copper prices
took a turn lower and dipped (once again) under the U$3.60/lb line. I’m happy to report that
21

copper’s recent rebound has taken that idea off the table and we’re once again comfortable
holders of ARG, but it was touch and go for a while and hey, that would have been a mistake.
As for Ero Copper (ERO), the two main reports came in IKN753 dated October 22nd “Ero Copper
(ERO.to): A price drop and a potential entry point”, then IKN755 dated November 5th: “Ero
Copper (ERO.to) 3q23 production and financials” when it reported its quarter.
It was just after that when the best prices for ERO appeared and in ongoing coverage, I may
not have bought myself for my own sweet reasons (see The Copper Basket above) but within
margins of error, identified the price as the right one for anyone braver than I or with a better
view on copper. Again as things turned out, those of you with more confidence about the state
of the copper market in Q4 would have done much better than I did, but at least we made the
right call in theory.
Discussion: As mentioned above before the chartfest began, this isn’t some sort of exercise in
horn-tooting or self-congratulation. Far from it, as there are obvious comments to make:
1) Calling gold higher in Q4 was not a difficult one. Aside the permabulls who finally get to
run a lap of honour, this desk notes that most observers of the gold market could see
what was in the pipeline. While the monetary metal’s revisit(s) to the mid/low
U$1,800s/oz over the Northern summer months were indeed frustrating, gold’s
appreciation was already happening by the time geopolitical risk levels were rocked by
the Gaza/Israel developments and since then, the real reasons to be long gold have
kicked in (i.e. world monetary, with real rates of interest dropping fast and cash looking
for safe places to hand out). That’s a combo which brings a lot of solid reasons to
go/be long gold to the table and you don’t have to be hardcore Austrian School to have
called gold higher.
2) My reasoning has been far from perfect. That’s normal and frankly, I’ll always take
“right for the wrong reasons” over its opposite. For example on this, I considered
Middle East geopolitical tensions to be a transitory factor on gold and as things have
turned out, the rolling effects on world economies continue to this day (please see the
latest attacks on shipping this weekend). But that’s okay, getting the general thrust is
good enough and we’re not here to predict every twist and turn of the financial world.
3) I haven’t made the most of the trade set-up. I won’t hide that the move in Top Pick
Minera Alamos (MAI.v) last week, plus its resilience into what would have been
considered a weak quarter and a reason to sell the stock again a month ago, have
came as a great relief and while still a laggard (esp considering its market cap), the pop
on new buy volume has gone some way to justify my sticking around. However and
personally speaking, I could have done a lot better than I have done with gold in Q4.
For a simple example, buying EGO would have worked. For a better example,
somebody who favours gold over copper and is hard-nosed about portfolio
management would have sold their Amerigo (ARG.to) and bought Fortuna with all the
proceeds, instead of pussyfooting around and trying to be nuanced or loyal to trades
22

(or both). Those are just two self-criticisms (there are plenty more, believe me) but you
should have the idea so, 20/20 hindsight and all that, if I’d practised more of what I’ve
been preaching I’d have more money in my portfolio this weekend, period.
So with the charts and complaints done, we get to the point:
IT PAYS TO OWN QUALITY STOCKS
We heard a lot about the big moves made by the dog stocks of the market last week, we also
saw plenty of headlines about the moves in the majors/Tier1 miners and the GDX and other
ETFs aimed at the precious metals market. However, what the last couple of weeks have shown
is that there’s real value to be found by filtering the wheat from the chaff and doing a little old-
fashioned stock picking. I’m not here telling you FSM, EQX, EGO and the others are the only
ones to choose, nor am I trying to claim some sort of analytical supremacy as there are plenty
of other good mining stocks that were beaten down over the course of this year (and
particularly in Q2 and Q3), as well as plenty of other people who know their way round a
balance sheet and can spot companies with the right risk/reward balance. However, the house
maximis to look for companies with the same or near-equal upside potential as their peers, but
with better financial positions and plenty of downside protection if things go wrong and on that
score…
 Fortuna Silver fits the bill
 Equinox Gold fits the bill
 Eldorado Gold fits the bill
….and so far at least, have out-performed the market median and peers in this new gold bull
run. While we’re on the subject, our soft coverage of SilverCrest Metals (SILV) (SIL.to) would
have seen that make the Watch List if it weren’t for my personal preference for Fortuna as a
like-for-like trade, but that doesn’t detract from its obvious attraction in this bullish scenario for
precious metals. And while on the subject, let’s add an extra word for Wesdome (WDO.to)
(WDOFF), on the Producer Basket this year even though it didn’t make the normal minimum
market cap level, specifically to keep an eye on its development. Its 3q23 didn’t impress this
desk much (see IKN756) and there are new doubts
about the state of its balance sheet, but the move in
gold since then changes the story significantly and
WDO is now in the right place to play catch-up to the
others mentioned. Here’s the bonus ball chart (right)
and I may end up regretting my preference for FSM
over SILV, as the catch-up it put in last week was
impressive and they’re now level pegging. Meanwhile,
our general call on Wesdome (here we use WDOFF)
has been right so far, but this may be the place for
serious leverage in the week ahead.
With the front line move candidates covered, we now
turn our attention toward picks that should benefit from cash rotation inside the sector. In the
opinion of this desk, first and foremost is the deep value still on offer at house Top Pick Minera
Alamos (MAI.v), but our Stocks to Follow list also offers names such as Contango ORE (CTGO)
and Newcore Gold (NCAU.v). We tend toward the speculative and while more speculative, the
tinycap Provenance Gold (PAU.cse) also has the right combo of market cap leverage on a very
promising gold project. Nevertheless, we didn’t run the ruler over newly highlighted Argonaut
(AR.to) and Soma Gold (SOMA.v) just for fun and if circumstances allow, they could become
trade vehicles as well.
Monday update: Argonaut Gold (AR.to) runs a bought deal
The final advantage of sending IKN759 out late this week comes here. Amid a hectic and
volatile Monday, perhaps the most interesting news directly from a gold miner was from
Argonaut Gold (AR.to), announcing it was running a bought deal financing (15) and here’s the
bit that matters, with noted below:
23

“…a "bought deal" basis, 210,527,000 common shares of the Company at a price of
C$0.38 per Offered Share for gross proceeds of approximately C$80 million.
The Underwriters have also been granted an option, exercisable in whole or in part for
a period of 30 days following the closing of the Offering, to purchase an additional
13,158,000 Offered Shares at the Offering Price, for additional gross proceeds of up to
approximately C$5 million.”
We note:
 That’s bigger than we’d expected from the company, as in IKN757 we guesstimated
a C$30m add.
 Importantly, we’re going to get an easy read on the popularity of the bought deal.
That overallotment facility is just 6.25% of the total, normal overallotments are
15%. In other words, if the lead underwriters (Cormark, BMO and Scotiabank) can
fill that small overallotment, we can assume they are holding a collective bag on this
bot deal and the share price will come under pressure.
 We therefore assume the overallotment is fully taken and AR raises gross proceeds
of C$85m.
 Also notable, this bot deal is “…a prospectus supplement to the Company's short
form base shelf prospectus dated June 2, 2022” and that means the shares sold will
go free trading on closure, no need for new holders to wait 121 days. Worth keeping
in mind.
 As for the closure, that “…is expected on or about December 12, 2023”. i.e. Tuesday
week. Not long to wait.
Here are a couple of updated charts from the AR XLS and assuming the overallotment is fully
taken, cash moves to an IKN estimated U$92m at end 2023 (i.e. in four weeks’ time), working
capital at U$42m and we’ll see how close those guesses were later (a lot depends on when
cheques are signed, both into and out of the company).
In other words, this bought deal moves the working cap back into positive territory for at least
a quarter, but at a cost to the share count:
AR.to: Shares Out
24
05.971 92.081 17.081
27.092 67.492 00.013 46.013 91.113 91.113 37.223 58.233 58.667 81.838 48.838 64.468
05.468
91.8701
1200
1100
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
source: company filings/IKN ests
serahs
fo
snoillim
AR.to: Working Capital per qtr
300
275
250
225
200
175
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
-25
-50
Assuming once again the overallotment is fully taken (and for AR’s sake I hope it is), on closing
the company should have around 1.08 billion (with a B) shares out. That’s some serious dilution
and rarely do you see a company more primed for a ten-to-one rollback, presumably in 2024.
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
U$m AR.to: Cash treasury per qtr
250
225
200
175
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
source company filings
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim

Discussion: Two weeks ago in the IKN757 fundies note, “Argonaut Gold (AR.to) (ARNGF) and
an impending trade set-up”, we got the ballpark on this fairly close. Please check that edition
again in light of today Monday’s news, but long story short our Watch List theory is playing out
and we may (but please note, it’s only a MAY) get the right trade set up soon. Not repeating all
of IKN757’s note, but by way of a reminder here’s the pros and cons list near the end:
So there are pros and cons to a trade. Pros include:
1) The share price is cheap and if Argonaut can get Magino up, running and in solid positive
cash flow territory, the rally is a near-guarantee.
2) Magino may be late and it’s capex blowout painful, but it’s now in commercial production and
Q4 will be its first real quarter.
3) With the benefit of an improving Florida Canyon, we expect AR to post good production
numbers for the current quarter.
4) It has plenty of backers and as long as it can get over the near-term glitches and financial
weakness, Magino promises to be a good, profitable long-life mine ina top jurisdiction. Costs are
now embedded and AR can start looking to the asset to provide financial returns.
Cons include:
1) The balance sheet is fragile, cash is tight. The recent sale of a 1% NSR will help alleviate
things, but working capital was negative and will likely remain so at end 4q23, there’s no way
around the potential liquidity issues.
2) With over 860m shares out already, AR has diluted its long-term holders bigtime and we may
see further equity raising.
3) Cash costs may not drop to the levels promised by a fully functioning Magino immediately. As
such, cash flow from its operations is not going to cover the gaps for at least a couple of quarters.
4) AR has had a torrid time of it and the recent selling has only exacerbated that. There’s a high
chance of it becoming a victim of what promises to be a Canadian Tax Loss Selling season to
remember.
IKN759 back and we now know that financing has happened and we also know its presumed
closure date, December 12th. That’s the day we can make a proactive decision on whether to
buy this current price because a) I don’t expect it to move much in the week ahead and b)
that’s when we’ll known whether the overallotment has been 100% taken, an important
sentiment indicator (as well as keeping bought deal shares away from brokerages that would
want to liquidate them sooner rather than later).
Bottom line: With Canadian Tax Loss Selling now getting into its high season periods and this
bought deal open, I’m good about waiting and watching until we know more. A potential
window for purchasing AR is the week of Monday December 18th, just before Christmas and
before 2024, when we should get good production numbers out of AR at some point and then
we’ll see if a rally appears, at which point we’d sell and take profits. Today’s news didn’t come
as a shock to this desk, we’ll now see if AR can fill the bought deal completely and whether it
can use the cash to good effect and get Magino to positive free cash flow. There’s an obvious
trade here if it can.
Conclusion
IKN759 is done, we end with bullet points:
 The overnight fun we saw in the gold price, as it briefly dinged a new all-time high on
Sunday night/Monday morning, should not detract from the solid progress made by
gold and the gold stocks in the last few weeks.
 The Argonaut Gold (AR.to) bought deal financing news didn’t come as a surprise to this
desk, but it does now open up the potential for a lucrative trade. We’re watching for
the December 12th closure news and its details.
 Minera Alamos (MAI.v) managed to disappoint and please in the same week around its
25

3q23 financials, but there is now a time limit to those elusive permits. I wouldn’t sell all
my shares and still know how much deep value there is available, but if we don’t get
movement on the Santana pad permit by January it will be time to put some of the
cash tied up in this trade to work somewhere else. Portfolios must be managed and
sometimes, that means making tough and unpopular decisions.
 I hope I’m wrong on copper, but see no need to own it as 2023 becomes 2024. Further
down the line its attractions become more obvious.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stock is Minera Alamos (MAI.v). Flash
updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best wishes, Mark
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://apnews.com/article/inflation-economy-interest-rates-federal-reserve-powell-
2200b5e3da872a349550ea707d4d6d42
(2) https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-12-04/-everything-rally-upends-powell-s-hopes-markets-will-do-
fed-s-work?srnd=opinion
(3) https://mineraalamos.com/news/2023/minera-alamos-releases-operations-update-and-q3-financials/
(4) https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/freeport-agrees-with-jiangxi-copper-to-2024-copper-concentrate-treatment-
charges-at-80-t-source/
(5) https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/metals/120123-chinese-smelters-agree-
copper-concs-tc-with-antofagasta-at-80mt-for-2024-term-contracts
(6) https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/chinas-rising-copper-imports-belie-manufacturing-gloom-2023-11-28/
(7) https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-copper-premium-spikes-demand-161634811.html
(8) https://news.metal.com/newscontent/102504951/Yangshan-copper-premiums-edged-lower-amid-falling-SHFELME-
price-ratio
(9) https://miningwatch.ca/news/2023/11/30/indigenous-organization-opposes-sale-controversial-warintza-mining-project
(10) https://www.westerncopperandgold.com/news-and-resources/news-release/western-copper-and-gold-announces-
further-investment-and-entry-into-a-new-investor-rights-agreement-with-rio-tinto/
(11) https://vivagoldcorp.com/site/assets/files/5875/vau_-_nr_23-13_private_placement_offering.pdf
(12) https://www.southstarbatterymetals.com/ydihapto/2023/11/STS_11_2023_DPAIII_Final.pdf#new_tab
(13) https://ninemilemetals.com/nine-mile-metals-updates-loan-financing-to-convertible-loan/
(14) https://mineriaydesarrollo.com/2023/12/01/dejan-en-stand-by-la-designacion-de-arbeleche-como-secretario-de-
mineria-de-la-nacion/
(15) https://www.argonautgold.com/English/news-and-events/news-releases/news-release-details/2023/Argonaut-Gold-
Announces-C80-Million-Bought-Deal-Public-Offering/default.aspx
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2022
Closed in 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
26

Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
Goldshore Res GSHR.v Nov'22 C$0.18 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 88.9% Quick profit taken
Palamina Corp PA.v Dec'22 C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.08 -72.9% Clear-out of underperformer
Pure Gold PGM.h Dec'22 C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.015 -89.3% tiny trade on vh risk, went Ch11
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Set-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
27

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
28

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
29