6 The IKN Weekly, issue 758 — Nov 27, 2023
The IKN Weekly
Week 758, November 26th 2023
Contents
This Week: Trade heads-up, In Today’s Edition, A reminder of December/Christmas IKN
Weekly coverage, Third call (of four) for 2024 Basket Cases.
Fundamental Analysis: Is Soma Gold (SOMA.v) too good to be true?
Stocks to Follow: Western Exploration (WEX.v), Argonaut Gold (AR.to), Equinox Gold (EQX)
(EQX.to) and Fortuna Silver (FSM) (FVI.to), Amerigo Resources (ARG.to), Marimaca Copper
(MARI.to), Ero Copper (ERO.to) (ERO), SolGold (SOLG.to) (SOLG.L), Contango ORE (CTGO),
Newcore Gold (NCAU.v), Minera Alamos (MAI.v).
The Copper Basket: Overview, Oroco Resource Corp (OCO.v), Libero Copper (LBC.v),
Atacama Copper (ACOP.v), Regulus Resources (REG.v).
Producer Basket: Overview, Eldorado Gold (EGO) (ELD.to), Wesdome Gold (WDO.to
(WDOFF).
The TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Palamina Corp (PA.v), Nine Mile Metals (NINE.cse).
Regional Politics: Updating on First Quantum (FM.to) and the Panama Cobre mess,
Argentina: Milei’s and his Secretary of Mining, Ecuador’s new President picks his Mining
Minister, Colombia: Zijin Mining files suit against Colombia.
Market Watching: Newcore Gold (NCAU.v): 3q23 financials, American Eagle (AE.v) and
insider buyers, Western Exploration (WEX.v): Selling.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
Trade heads-up
I’m a seller of Western Exploration (WEX.v), which has turned into a badly failed trade. See
‘Market Watching’ for the rationale. Sometimes, they just go wrong.
In Today’s Edition
Today’s main event is on a company that I don’t think I’ve ever mentioned on these
pages, not even in passing, even though I’ve had an eye on it for most of 2023. It’s not
a perfect junior and it’s taken me a while to warm to its potential as a trade or
investment, but with the advent of its Q3 filings and results last week, it’s now done too
many good things to ignore any further. We therefore run the ruler over Soma Gold
(SOMA.v) and consider the good, bad and ugly of this relatively new and clearly
profitable small gold miner working in Colombia.
We check out the latest from Panama and the mess around First Quantum’s mine
there, and here are the first three lines of today’s Regional Politics section go: “We
started this series six weeks ago, we’ve tried not to overplay its significance, we’ve
watched the political backdrop deteriorate and now we need to pay closer attention to
the developing story around Panama Cobre, as there’s a trade set-up developing.”
Plenty more on that below.
The Copper Basket tries to remain calm and consider both sides of the argument for
copper prices, even as the metal returns to the U$3.80/lb price level, plus we bring in
Andy Home to back up the thoughts on TC/RC we ran last weekend.
1
A reminder of December/Christmas IKN Weekly coverage
You may be new here, you may not have read the note at the start of November (IKN755), you
may have forgotten, more likely you don’t care much and that’s fair enough, but you’re getting
this second heads-up all the same. For the last fifteen Decembers The IKN Weekly has kept its
coverage normal (whatever that word means) for the first part of the month, then comes
Christmas week and New Year in which we run “Bare Bones Only” editions which tend to be
briefer updates, with main tables updated and some commentary, but not much more. We then
re-start in the New Year with the new baskets (see below) and do some real work in January.
It’s going to be different this year.
Please note that we the family (your author, little Joseph, the good lady and #2 still inside the
good lady until March) are travelling in mid-December, as we’re spending Christmas with the in-
laws. This means an international flight during the week of December 11th and all the cat-
herding that entails, as well as warm welcomes and interrupted weekends, as well as a high
likelihood of difficult internet access. All this means that the editions up to and including Sunday
December 10th will be normal coverage, then follow three “bare bones” editions on the Sundays
of the 17th, 24th and 31st December. We then get back to real work on Sunday January 7th 2024.
Thank you in advance for your understanding.
Third call (of four) for 2024 Basket Cases
Also some sort of boring tradition for the intro section at this time of year, this segment gets a
few repeats and this is the third. I’ll add a fourth next weekend and that’s your lot, so you
cannot say you weren’t warned. Thanks again due to ideas already received (you know who
you are) but as noted before, the more suggestions the merrier, so…
Every November/December your author puts together a long list (then a short list) of stocks for
our three tracking baskets for the year to come, namely The Copper Basket, Producer
Basket and TinyCaps Basket. Year-end will see those lists refreshed, with companies leaving
and replaced by others and as usual, I already have a few ideas for companies to swap out and
swap in. However, the Long List is a big part of the game and for that, we throw the subject
out to the collective mind of readership and ask for suggestions. Your suggestions and prompts
are greatly valued because there are always some ideas for companies, large or small, that beat
mine and end up on the lists. With that in mind, here’s the framework and as the baskets are
somewhat different in make-up, first a reminder of what type of company we need in each list:
For The Copper Basket: We look for a group of 15 stocks that as a whole represent
the junior copper mining world. The maximum market cap is $1Bn, but preferably I like
them lower to better reflect our sector of interest. We welcome tinycaps, as a cross
section is required. As we’re not trying to beat the street and want a faithful reflection of
the sector, always happy to include bad copper companies or dog stocks if they bring
something to the table.
For The Producer Basket: There is no upper limit in market cap size, but we do
require a minimum market cap of U$2Bn. For this list, I’m looking for suggestions for
precious metals producers that will out-perform in 2024, as we also have the less
important (except for my own ego) exercise of trying to beat the GDX benchmark.
For The TinyCaps: First and foremost, for this list we require companies with a market
cap of $20m maximum, as The TinyCaps tracks market moves of the smallest companies.
However, at this level of market cap there are many broken stocks and dead companies
with projects going nowhere. They are not interesting, as although we cannot expect
operational or managerial perfection at this level the company still needs to “have a
pulse” and be a reasonable trade or speculative alternative.
I normally look to change between three and five companies on each list, so if you have a good
candidate for the Producer, Copper or TinyCap list, be they companies you own or not (or if it’s
a doggish type of idea, perhaps “owned”) please drop a line the usual addresses. Thanks in
advance for any and all suggestions received and expect this intro note to run from now to the
second week in December.
2
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
An introduction to Soma Gold (SOMA.v)
Today’s main fundies section crunches the numbers on a new name for The IKN Weekly, Soma
Gold (SOMA.v), a small gold operation in Colombia. I’m all-but certain this is the first time its
name has been mentioned on these pages, but it’s a company and story I’ve been tracking
quietly this year as its operations and financial results have improved. What’s more, the
company has done largely what its management team promised it would do, that fact alone
sets it apart from many other companies in its sub-sector. However, it’s not a perfect stock or
company so our job today is to run the ruler over the good, bad and ugly. At the end, you’ll
hopefully understand why I am adding Soma Gold (SOMA.v) to The IKN Weekly Stocks to
Follow Watch List, as from next weekend, with a view to opening a trade and taking a position
in the weeks ahead. In other words, another one for the queue.
We begin with the basics. The operating assets at SOMA.v are in Antioquia, Colombia, arguably
the least worst region to go mining in the country. Its large concession covers high-grade
underground mines and it owns two mills, with one currently in operation. Here’s our standard
topbox for the corporate and valuation basics:
Shares out: 91.348m
Options: 6.35m
Warrants: Zero
Fully diluted: 97.698m
Current share price: C$0.66
Market Cap: C$60.29m
All prices are in Canadian Dollars unless stated. Forex U$0.75=CAD$1
That’s a reasonably tight structure, which gets even tighter when we consider the insider
holdings. Company executive chair Geoff Hampson owns 18.195m shares, or just under 20% of
the total number of shares out. Even more impressively,
director Glenn Walsh owns 40.545m shares, or 44.4% of
shares out. Between then, they lock over 64% of the total
and this makes for a low free float total and while on the
subject, a company under the direct control of Glenn Walsh
is the creditor for SOMA’s main financial debt device.
As for its assets, this country map from its latest 43-101
technical report dated December 31st 2022 (filed January
this year) shows the location of its main El Bagre
operations, including the El Bagre mill, operating Cordero
underground mine and the Limon mill on care and
maintenance (and apparently about to come back into
service), as well as its development stage Nechi
underground mine project, slightly to the North.
The company updated its 43-101 compliant resource in
2022, with the technical report published in January of this
year. Here’s the main table, as ripped from the latest
MD&A:
3
That resource for the working Cordero mine runs on a 2.4 g/t cut-off, which suggests robustly
profitable feed for its El Bagre mill. As for Nechi, that is due to come online in 2025 as SOMA
expands its throughput and while the average grade is still good, it runs a slightly higher cut-off
of 3.1 g/t. The overall resource at Cordero (and Nechi, for that matter) isn’t massive, but the
inferred is reliable and the company reports it has plenty of resource expansion potential as the
mine develops, which again isn’t too difficult to believe in this type of high grade vein
environment. As things stand, the indicated and inferred at Cordero give it an approximate six
year mine life at current run rates, not a deep inventory but as long as drill exploration can
replace ounces ongoing, not much more than a small latent concern at this point.
The key to SOMA’s success in 2023 has been an expansion of throughput, as the recently
(re)commissioned Cordero mine has come online and taken over from the company’s legacy
mining operations, which were tired and becoming erratic and more costly. The move to
supplying its mill from 100% Cordero feed has been smooth and successful, and the company
is now concentrating on increasing its mining rate. These charts show quarterly tonnes mined
and milled (below left) and the mined tonnes per day (below right).
SOMA.v: Tonnes mined and milled, per qtr
60000
50000 40000
30000
20000
10000
0
SOMA has achieved its first target of getting to 450tpd and is now looking to ramp up to 600tpd
by the first half of next year. This will allow its idled mill at El Limon to come online and
between El Bagre and Limon, the company claims a milling capacity of 675tpd (as well as being
permitted for up to 1,400tpd, that’s a useful permit for
the medium-term future)
The move to Cordero has also greatly improved head
grades, as this chart shows. However, you’ll also note
that I’ve added in a final column shows the average indicated grade at Cordero, as per its recent 43-101.
The mine has been running higher than that in the last
couple of quarters and that perfectly reasonable, as
mines of this ilk will often go through mine sequences
offering better average grades. However, we need to
be aware that the average indicated should be
respected over time and we cannot expect this bonus grade to last forever.
The company’s plans to bump up throughput by as much as 33% in 2024 but only add around
10% in extra ounces compared to the last two quarters is also indicative of this. On the subject
of gold produced, here are two charts showing Gold Equivalent ounces sold (below left) and the
4
02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4 tse42q1 tse42q2
SOMA.v: tonnes per day mined
Tonnes mined Tonnes milled
source: company filings, IKN ests
241
263 123 543 243 514 593 005 483 213 983 293 924 274 115
675 895 700
600 500 400
300
200
100
0
02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4 tse42q1 tse42q2
tpd
source: company filings
SOMA.v: Avg head grade, per qtr
71.4 20.4 56.4 9.4 64.4 80.5 84.4 13.4 74.5 54.6 61.6 89.6 68.7 64.8 9.6
10
9
8
7
6
5 4 3 2
1
0
02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 oredroC
source: company filings
llim
ta
uA t/g
breakdown of those GEOs into gold and silver:
This is a highly gold-centric operation and the silver by-product is very minor. For example, in
2q23 the silver added up to just 99oz AuEq and in 3q3 it was 100oz AuEq. So what matters
here is the gold grade, the gold recovery and the gold produced, silver is a non-issue for
valuation purposes. You will also note that we’ve added in estimates for GEOs sold for the next
three quarters. Though it’s always going to be difficult to get the numbers from a small
producer with a single mine right, these are based on the company’s own projections and
forecasts for the year to come, in which it raises throughput and brings its second mill online to
produce just over 40,000 oz gold in 2024.
As for costs, this is a solidly profitable operation as this chart shows (and this is in US Dollars,
please note).
SOMA.v: Total cash cost, realized gold price, difference
5
065
629
996
069 389
637 065
389 0501 779
SOMA.v: Au and AuEq in silver sold, per qtr
U$/oz tot cash cost/oz Realized price USD Avg cash margin
2200
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
2q21 3q21 4q21 1q22 2q22 3q22 4q22 1q23 2q23 3q23
source: company filings, IKN calcs
Total cash costs for operations does not take into account the financial headwinds on the P+L,
this is the mining side of things but all the same, this mine is running a margin averaging
around U$1,000/oz for the last three quarters. That’s good business, ladies and gents and goes
a long way to explain just why SOMA’s share price has rallied in 2023.
Moving to the P+L, we see that healthy margin in its revenues vs. production costs chart (below
left) and the last two quarters have seen very healthy gross sales. Costs rose slightly in 3q23
compared to 2q23 but this margin can handle a little extra. Subtract the small number from the
big and you get mine operating income, the pastel blue column in the other chart (below right)
and the operating profit had averaged an excellent 10c/share per quarter for the last six
months, an implied annual of 40c which isn’t bad at all for a 60c stock.
796 3034 1724 1924 9963 3494 7464 4614 7647 9245 9655 7736 4488 2109
10000
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000 4000 3000 2000
1000
0
02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3
source: company filings
)qEuA(uA
zO
SOMA.v: GEOs sold, per qtr
AuEq oz sold
Au Oz sold
707 9834 6834 4144 2083 8405 6374 5324 3857 4945 0465 8446 3498 2119 0009 00101 00501
12000
10000
8000
6000 4000 2000
0
02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4 tse42q1 tse42q2
GEO
source: company filings
SOMA.v: Revenues vs Prod Costs
708.9 246.5
347.71
907.9
801.21
089.7
003.31 056.01 100.61
793.9
789.22
941.31
187.22
783.41
SOMA.v: Mine Op Inc and Net Inc, per qtr
C$m
25 Revenues
op ex
20
15
10
5
0
1q22 2q22 3q22 4q22 1q23 2q23 3q23
source: company filings
561.4 252.0
430.8
558.1
821.4
81.0 56.2
920.2-
406.6 402.1
838.9 536.3
493.8
812.3
C$m
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2 1
0
-1 source: company filings
-2
1q22 2q22 3q22 4q22 1q23 2q23 3q23
However, you will also note that there’s a big drop between mine op income and the net, which
isn’t all about taxes. There’s some significant headwind on the SOMA financials from its
liabilities and debt financing, which needs to be addressed before we draw any preliminary
conclusions. The first place to look is the balance sheet overview charts and while assets are
duly increasing as you’d expect from a profit-making mine (with trade payables going up as
better gold sales are credited before the actual cash arrives), so are liabilities and most of that
is cash debt.
C$m SOMA.v: Assets breakdown, per qtr C$m SOMA.v: Liabilities breakdown, per qtr
90
80 f o ix th e e d r current 70 Other LT liab
subordinated note
70 inventory 60
current liab
60 Trade rec 50
cash & eq
50 40
40
30
30
20
20
10 10
0 0
4q21 1q22 2q22 3q22 4q22 1q23 2q23 3q23 4q21 1q22 2q22 3q22 4q22 1q23 2q23 3q23
source: company filings source: company filings
The main headwind is the subordinated note that was arranged in 2020 as part of the corporate
financial re-structuring. Held by major shareholder and company director Glenn Walsh, it’s a ten
year loan that accrues interest at a heavy 12% annual compounded quarterly, which is an
approximate annual rate of 18%. There have
been no paybacks on principal as yet, those start SOMA.v: Subordinated note liability
in August 2024. Interest is currently racking up
at over C$1m per quarter (ouch) and that’s a lot
of money for a small mine to support. We agree
its margins can do that and the turnaround has
been a resounding success, but this cost is
something to be reckoned with going forward
and, as a result, this is one of the few small PM
operators that I’d value using standard EPS,
rather than a metric based on its operating
earnings. Anyone buying these shares must take
into account that the company will spend a significant portion of its operating profits on paying
down its loan and interest, all to a director that will make sure he gets his money back and his
profit on that high interest rate.
As such, it’s best to scrub from your mind those thoughts of 10c/qtr operating earnings per
share and consider this chart of EPS per quarter. While the 4c and 3.5c we’ve seen in the last
two quarters is still good and more than justifies the current 66c share price, there are some…
…other angles to consider as well. For one, we see that working capital remains fairly low
compared to its earnings potential; that’s debt servicing for you and now the first repayments
are coming due, that’s not going to go away. Second, the current bonus high grades from
6
47.81 85.91 74.02 14.12 4.22 14.32 84.42 6.52 7.62 9.72 92 82 5.62
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4 tse42q1 tse42q2 tse42q3 tse42q4
C$m
source: company filings, IKN calcs and ests
SOMA.v: EPS/qtr
000.0 300.0
120.0
200.0 220.0-
310.0
040.0
530.0 0.05
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
0.00
-0.01
-0.02
-0.03
12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3
C$m EQX: Book Value per share (C$)
source: company filings
40.0
70.0 80.0
30.0
80.0
61.0
12.0
0.40
0.35
0.30
0.25
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3
P/BV
source: company filings
Cordero won’t last forever and SOMA isn’t programming throughput increases of a third to
increase production by 10% just for fun. That means
we’re already past the peak efficiency moment of C$m SOMA.v: Working cap, per qtr
10
Cordero/El Bagre and alongside the costs involved in
8
commissioning the second mill next year, opex will also 6.232
6 5.148
increase as more dirt is processed for the same amount
3.274
of gold. Finally, there’s no getting round the fact that 4 2.356
not only is this a small, one-mine operation but it’s 2 -3.651 -0.388 0.434 0.089
located in Colombia, which may or may not be difficult 0
for Soma Gold and its people, but will always mean it -2
gets less of a multiple awarded by the market. -4 source: company filings
4q21 1q22 2q22 3q22 4q22 1q23 2q23 3q23
Discussion and conclusion: The working title for
today’s main fundies note was “Is Soma Gold (SOMA.v) too good to be true?”, as it’s the
question that’s been floating through my head on the stock for the last six months or so. It
wasn’t the initial run at the start of the year that got my attention, more the rebound and run
during Q3 that pulled the stock price back up into the 60c-70c range, because that move came
at the worst time for gold and junior stocks and saw SOMA successfully pushing back against
significant sector headwinds. The mental note to pay attention to its Q3 was made and with last
week’s published results, the clear progress and future guidance can no longer be ignored
(either officially or unofficially) by a publication such as The IKN Weekly, which covers just this
type of company.
Is SOMA still cheap on its current operation, margin and earnings? Yes indeed it is and even a
reasonable 8xEPS, taking into account the elevated risk of working Colombia, makes this a
C$1.00 stock. However, before taking the plunge I want more information on some key factors
and they’ll only come once the 4q23 period is in the books:
Will the average head grade return to the indicated average?
What will costs do in Q4? Then in 2024?
What’s the capex budget for 2024, as it will include moving and commissioning a new
mill?
Other things, too. There are also the standard risks, such as execution of an investment
program (on time/budget) to increase throughput in the next three quarters, then the prosaic
one of the gold price. Political risk will always be in the background as well and while we greatly
appreciate the recent news that SOMA.v has reached a long-term labour agreement with its
workforce, a win-win likely to provide CSR stability, there’s always potential for trouble from
either the national government or local issues (see Regional Politics for a timely example).
The bottom line is that one the straight math and considering the last two quarters as typical of
what we’re going to get in the next three or four, SOMA.v is a bargain. That means it could run
higher at any moment if it gets a high-traffic evangelist promoting its benefits and the low float
would help any move into become a sharp one. However, there’s more to this game than
simple math, especially of the backward looking type, and I prefer to watch from the sidelines
and note whether we see costs rise and a balance sheet that gets weighed down too heavily by
that debt (owed to its major shareholder and director). The market will tell me whether I’m
right or wrong to be leery of Soma Gold
despite its clear attractions as seen on the
spreadsheet and, as such, I will make it part
of the Watch List as from next week. If
things go well and Q4 has enough to like, I
should be able to position at or around this
current price as long as gold doesn’t fly
between now and then. In the meantime, I
prefer the risk/reward balance offered by
Fortuna Silver or Equinox Gold.
7
Stocks to Follow
A generally positive week, soured somewhat by the failure of Top Pick Minera Alamos (MAI.v)
to capitalize on the conducive scenario for gold producers. If we include the new arrival
Argonaut and make the count to 17, we had ten winners on the week (ARG.to, FSM, EQX,
CTGO, ALDE.v, MARI.to, ERO.to, AR.to, PAU.cse, MENE.v), three unchanged stocks (SOLG.to,
NCAU.v, MIRL.cse) and four losers (MAI.v, RIO.v, WEX.v, SURG.v). Biggest winner came from
Contango ORE (CTGO up 14.8%), biggest loser was Western Exploration (WEX.v down 9.0%).
With the addition of Argonaut Gold (AR.to) to the Watch List we now have 17 open positions on
the list, three below our self-imposed maximum. I own 12 of the names. Those totals will drop
to 16 and 11 respectively next week when WEX leaves the list. Seven stocks are in the green,
ten are in the red.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.29 38.1% $0.75 first tgt, #1 idea
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Amerigo Res ARG.to hold C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.31 -3.7% Cu price better, will hold
Fortuna Silver FSM BUY U$2.92 13-Aug-23 U$3.69 26.4% Finally moved, still want flip
Equinox Gold EQX STR BUY U$4.46 30-May-23 U$4.95 11.0% Leverage trade at U$2k/oz Au
Contango Ore CTGO BUY U$18.70 30-Jul-23 U$23.69 26.7% FY24 production, now moving
SolGold SOLG.to BUY C$0.265 19-Feb-23 C$0.155 -41.5% Cu in Ecuador, M&A tgt
Newcore Gold NCAU.v SPEC BUY C$0.205 23-Oct-22 C$0.135 -34.1% Showing signs of life
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v BUY C$0.83 22-Apr-18 C$0.16 -80.7% Cheap on permit probs, appeal
SPECULATIVE TRADES
Western Explor. WEX.v SELLING C$1.87 9-Apr-23 C$0.61 -67.4% Assays mediocre, cutting loss
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v SPEC BUY C$0.72 16-May-21 C$0.82 13.9% drilling again
Minera IRL MIRL.cse avoid C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.01 -92.3% leaving list soon (good)
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
Marimaca Copper MARI.to WATCH C$3.65 26-May-23 C$3.50 -4.1% Likely buy,cheap entry showing
Ero Copper ERO.to WATCH C$18.94 22-Oct-23 C$17.28 -8.8% High quality Cu prod, cheap
Argonaut Gold AR.to WATCH C$0.395 22-Oct-23 C$0.40 1.3% potential fliptrade around Xmas
Surge Copper SURG.v WATCH C$0.11 18-Jun-23 C$0.07 -36.4% tinycap Cu in BC Canada
Provenance Gold PAU.cse WATCH C$0.085 8-Oct-23 C$0.105 23.5% Idaho gold drill play
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.63 6-Dec-20 C$0.315 -50.0% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2023 date closed close price
Altiplano Metals APN.v jan'23 C$0.31 17-Sep-21 C$0.17 -45.2% delayed and will dilute soon
Western Copper WRN.to mar'23 C$2.02 13-Nov-22 C$2.32 14.9% sold on reduced M&A prob.
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v may'23 C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$1.75 -43.0% Closing on legal action news
Amerigo Res ARG.to may'23 C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.48 8.8% sold 20% to raise cash
Amerigo Res ARG.to oct'23 C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.21 -11.0% sold 10% raise to cash
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v oct'23 C$0.265 25-Apr-21 C$0.12 -54.7% sold raise to cash
Faraday Copper FDY.to oct'23 C$0.79 26-Mar-23 C$0.68 -11.4% sold raise to cash
AbraSilver Res. ABRA.v oct'23 C$0.36 4-Dec-22 C$0.28 -22.2% sold raise to cash
Orecap inv OCI.v oct'23 C$0.04 20-Nov-22 C$0.03 -25.0% sold raise to cash
2015 to 2022 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on some of our covered companies:
Western Exploration (WEX.v): SELLING. A brief line here to add to the call made in today’s
8
intro, as well as the main note on WEX.v in ‘Market Watching’, below. Time to draw a line under
this failed trade and move on.
Argonaut Gold (AR.to): ADDED TO WATCH LIST. By the state of the mailbag over the last
seven days, last week’s main note “Argonaut Gold
(AR.to) (ARNGF) and an impending trade set-up”
was well-received by the esteemed readership of
The IKN Weekly so thank you for that.
We note that AR traded largely in line with the
market benchmarks last week (we use GDXJ here
right), floating back to 40c on decent volume early
week that faded later on. This remains a target for
a trade on the Watch List and we await any
corporate financing move for a window. As laid
out this time last week, AR is now on the Watch
List and given the right circumstances, I’ll buy
some between now and then but there’s pressure
and no rush to get in, as the other potential catalyst is its 4q23 production numbers.
Equinox Gold (EQX) (EQX.to) and Fortuna Silver (FSM) (FVI.to): Last week’s comment
on Equinox Gold (EQX) was, “If gold continues to rally, this is one to consider as a fliptrade.”
This chart last five days of EQX versus GDX and the same as last week, we add in Fortuna
Silver (FSM) (FVI.to) what with it being our other vehicle for near-term gold beta.
Result: EQX and FSM both did slightly-not-massively better than the GDX benchmark and that’s
welcome, but EQX still hasn’t caught fire. We should recall that FSM put in strong gains the
week before last and is now well ahead of EQX in relative terms, so for my money EQX still
hasn’t made the move I’ve wanted to see at these price levels. The theory is simple enough;
EQX is a high cash cost producer of a large amount of gold (more than 500k oz, even before
Greenstone comes online next year), so the leverage it offers in the current price range for gold
is better than the typical Tier 2 producer. At some point this should reflect in its equity and with
gold now threatening to move above and beyond the (clearly psychologically important U$2k
line, EQX remains my best single idea to trade the gold bull.
As for FSM, same message as last week: Happy with its recent performance, but it was opened
as a near-ish term trade on the company’s turnaround and new production levels and we’re
sticking with the plan. I’m looking for at least another 10% added to the share price from this
weekend and preferably 20%, but there is a clear finish line to this trade and if the Market Gods
allow, at some point I’ll take profits.
Amerigo Resources (ARG.to): The rally quiet rally continues in ARG, all on the back of the
improved market prices for copper, but as seen below in The Copper Basket I’m still
unconvinced about the stamina this current rebound in copper spot prices might have. Happy to
9
hold this into its next dividend payment and that’s triggered this coming week. We’ll see after
that, because the real benefits from holding ARG come when copper is over U$4.00/lb.
Marimaca Copper (MARI.to): It takes courage of conviction to buy lows and I hope at least
a few of the fans of MARI helped themselves to the lowest prices. You know I didn’t, what with
the resolution to sit on my hands and preserve treasury through the upcoming Tax Loss Selling
season.
Ero Copper (ERO.to) (ERO): That’s a really nice rebound:
Though we tend to track its progress via its Canadian dot Tee Oh ticker, the above is for the U$
ERO listing to show its move compared to the recent bought deal price. We remind readers that
the initial closing left U$9m of the overallotment untaken and with the stock price doing what it
did last week, there’s an increased likelihood the overallotment is fully taken during the 30 day
post-close period. That would be a good thing, in this desk’s opinion. So yes, those sub-
C$16/sub-U$12 prices look like a clear bottom and once again, ERO has shown a sharp
rebound. More fool me for not buying it and continuing to hold…
SolGold (SOLG.to) (SOLG.L): The laggard continues to lag. However, the AGM has now
been called for December 20th and we’ll see if any activist moves are made in the run-up to the
meeting. Scott Caldwell and “Team Mather” has failed to deliver the quick sale and resolution
they talked up at this time last year, we now find out if they pay a price.
Contango ORE (CTGO): This makes for pleasant viewing:
Same as FSM, we’re not married to this position and if I’m offered enough money for my shares
I’ll accept the offer, but we’re not there yet and my sale won’t come until there’s a 3-handle on
the price. More please, RvN&Co.
Newcore Gold (NCAU.v): This TSXV listed exploreco filed its 3q23 a little earlier than Minera
Alamos, specifically post-close on Friday. The charts and so forth needed more space than the
notes section here, so please see ‘Market Watching’ below for the necessary on NCAU, here we
10
simply note that despite staying UNCH for the week, the stock is now showing signs of life,
Enchi is a real project with live prospects of making it into mining and we still like its potential
to offer big leverage on gold. High risk and speculative for sure, but not tough to hold in the
current environment.
Minera Alamos (MAI.v): Another disappointing week at market for MAI.v. Even if market
thoughts were floating toward the imminent publication of its 3q23 financials, MAI shouldn’t
have put in a losing week this way. Not after the positive vibes of the week before and not with
the tailwinds offered by U$2k/oz gold and producer stocks going up all around.
MAI should drop its Q3 RegFs either Tuesday or Wednesday, as that’s limit date for TSXV
companies with September quarter ends (which means MAI is going to be one of very many
companies filing in the days to come) so I’m going to keep comments brief today, but expect
plenty on our under-performing Top Pick stock this time next weekend in IKN759.
The Copper Basket
After forty-seven weeks of 2023, The Copper Basket shows a loss of 24.22% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Solaris Res SLS.to 6.44 148.15 733.34 4.95 -23.1%
2 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.22 92.882 325.09 3.50 8.7%
3 Western Copper WRN.to 2.41 151.597 257.71 1.70 -29.5%
4 Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to 1.92 105.96 153.64 1.45 -24.5%
5 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.78 169.819 139.25 0.82 5.1%
6 Hot Chili HCH.v 0.78 119.455 109.90 0.92 17.9%
7 Faraday Copper FDY.to 0.54 175.2 99.86 0.57 5.6%
8 Regulus Res. REG.v 1.10 124.509 87.16 0.70 -36.4%
9 Oroco Res OCO.v 0.91 216.13 81.05 0.375 -58.8%
10 Pan Global Res PGZ.v 0.46 242.74 40.05 0.165 -64.1%
11 Kodiak Copper KDK.v 1.12 56.2 31.47 0.56 -50.0%
12 QC Copper QCCU.v 0.165 162.815 18.72 0.115 -30.3%
13 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.16 106.25 12.22 0.115 -28.1%
14 Atacama Copper ACOP.v 0.16 35.94 7.55 0.21 31.3%
15 Libero Copper LBC.v 0.155 119.58 2.39 0.02 -87.1%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg -24.22%
That rather offhand thought that started last
The Copper Basket 2023, weekly evolution
15%
week’s edition of The Copper Basket, “We may
10%
have finally found a bottom in the junior copper
5%
sub-sector…” didn’t hold up to the ravages of 0%
cruel reality and while the drop on the week was -5%
-10%
rather small, it still market a new 2023 low for the
-15%
basket average. Just four of our 15 stocks
-20%
returned a week-over-week win (MARI.to, -25%
ASCU.to, ALDE.v, REG.v) and two others were -30%
unchanged (QCCU.v, ACOP.v still halted) which
leaves nine losers that includes the biggest losers
in Libero (LBC.v down 20.0%, or half a cent), Pan
Global Resources (PGZ.v down 10.8%), with a gaggle of others dropping 4% and 5%.
11
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2yluj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6gua ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3pes ht01 ht71 ht42 ts1tco ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5von ht21 ht91 ht62
source: IKN calcs
We can’t blame the copper market action for this lack of movement in copper explorecos,
either. We’re now tracking via the March’24 Comex futures contract (HGH24) and while that’s
trading 4c or 5c above spot, it’s the most liquid market and also indicates copper is in normal
contango. The contract rose 5c on the week (chart right) and that’s a good thing, but trading
wasn’t that strong and the impression is of a market that’s trying to weigh the potential impact
of the normal supply Cobre Panama concentrate failing to reach Asia in the first weeks of 2024.
Time to break out the alliteration and offer concise and carefully curated copper comments
coming from clever crania of the base metals world. First up this link to a standard market
comment note (1) on last week’s market action, because it offers examples from both ends of
the intellectual spectrum. Two anal ysts, two quotes:
“The positive performance in copper this week is very much driven by a risk-friendly
environment in financial markets overall, extending the gains that were triggered by the
lower than expected US CPI earlier this month,” said Julius Baer analyst Carsten
Menke.
Indeed, you’ve just read three lines of script that mean absolutely nothing and could be used
on a rolling basis any time we get more than two days of broad markets in the green. Scary to
think these people get paid for this, however and in the same report, JP Morgan analyst
Gregory Shearer comes to the rescue of our brain cells with a more insightful thought:
Industrial metals were also buoyed by China’s renewed support for the property sector.
Higher import demand in China is reflected in a rally in the Yangshan copper premium,
which ended this week at a one-year high.
Higher prices and premiums will eventually undercut China’s recent stronger demand
impulse “largely continuing to keep copper prices capped and in a range”, said JP
Morgan analyst Gregory Shearer.
Agreed, Mr. Shearer. This desk noticed chatter on the premium highs being paid in China in the
peanut gallery of social media last week, with “copper going higher” as the unanimous
conclusion drawn by bulls. Now hey, I’m a copper bull as well but Mr. Shearer’s take is closer to
mine, as for one thing seasonality and the late year demand we always see from Chinese end
users for physical supply is now bumping up against thin futures warehouse inventory. That’s
the recipe for a bump in premiums, but once Asia mainland factories are stocked up that
demand is going away. We may have another four weeks of this, not much more, then the
slack period is upon us again and those premiums will almost certainly drop. Moral: This isn’t an
indicator to rely upon.
We move to something more substantial and that trusted voice in the base metals world (and
house mancrush), Andy Home of Reuters. His main weekly column, entitled “Copper supply
rethink as smelter treatment charges fall” (2) went over the same news about the TC/RC deal
struck by Antofagasta (ANTO.L) we covered last weekend in IKN757 but brought in new angles
and extra insight (as usual for Andy Home, he really is a must-read for anyone in the metals
space). Here’s how the note begins:
LONDON, Nov 23 (Reuters) - Chilean copper miner Antofagasta (ANTO.L) last week
12
inked the first major 2024 concentrates supply deal with China's Jinchuan Group.
It remains to be seen whether the terms form an annual benchmark for others. Indeed,
it's far from certain there will be a single benchmark for next year due to a shifting
copper concentrates landscape.
But even so, the drop in headline treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs), the fees a
smelter earns for converting concentrate into refined metal, has taken the market by
surprise.
Next year was supposed to be a year of raw material surplus, with smelters enjoying
TC/RCs equal to or better than this year's benchmark of $88 per metric ton and 8.8
cents per pound.
Those negotiated by Antofagasta and Jinchuan came in at $80 and 8.0 cents,
suggesting both miner and smelter agree the concentrates market will be tighter than
expected.
As a visual aid, we also get the chart (right) which is very similar to the one we generated for
last week’s edition. As usual, the excerpts of a Home column do the entirety scant justice and
readers are strongly advised to use the link in the appendix below and reads the whole thing.
We do however offer a second excerpt from later in the piece, when he adds in the mooted
oversupply now being built into the Asia smelter market:
Most of the new capacity will be in China, where refined production is already growing
at a double-digit pace as smelters capitalise on this year's higher benchmark treatment
charges.
The pace of expansion is likely to accelerate after the Chinese government hinted it
may introduce a capacity cap similar to that already imposed on the country's
aluminium smelters.
Details are still sketchy and no formal decision has been made, but the threat alone is
likely to spur the build-out of more new smelter capacity as everyone rushes to beat
the as-yet unknown deadline.
The prospect of too many smelters chasing a finite amount of raw material is at the
forefront of many Chinese producers' minds.
"The challenge smelters are facing is the annual supply of copper ore and concentrate,
given copper smelting is developing very aggressively in China," Chen Yunian, vice
president at Jiangxi Copper (600362.SS), China's biggest operator, said at the CRU
World Copper Conference Asia.
This is as likely a reason for the competitive
rate achieved by ANTO in its deal than
anything else, though in the opinion of this
desk Home’s comment how it is “…far from
certain there will be a single benchmark for
next year due to a shifting copper
concentrates landscape” is the right one. The
year ahead for copper (which starts in
earnest once Chinese New Year public
holiday period ends on February 15th) is
tough one to predict at this point in time.
We arrive at our regular weekly check on world copper inventories, data from Cochilco:
The aggregate of the three world systems added a thin 3,963metric tonnes (mt) last
week, the Friday close at 234,240mt. Trading was thin and that’s about all there is for
the overview bullet point today.
The Shanghai SHFE bounced a little from the 2023 low reached last week and finished
Friday with 35,878mt of copper in its dedicated warehouses, up 4,852mt and a relief
for any factory looking to complete their year-end inventory quota. As seen in the
dedicated SHFE chart below, stocks are still tracking the 2021 line quite closely.
The LME continues to show small fluctuations in its inventory levels, this seeing
2,750mt leave its warehouses in total to close Friday at 178,525mt.
The only slight surprise on the week was seeing Comex add 1,861mt to its stocks after
13
several consecutive weeks of drawdowns. Friday’s total stands at 19,837mt.
The dedicated SHFE chart remains with the same message, “China copper supply is tight”, but
not much more than at any point in Q3 or Q4 to date. We’re now moving to the point in the
cycle when we start to wonder just how high the re-stock in SHFE will go and with Chinese New
Year coming early in the calendar in 2024, we should find out sooner rather than later.
SHFE copper inventory levels, 2018 to 2023
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
14
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
MT Cu 2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
source: Cochilco data
Now for notes on a couple of basket stocks:
Oroco Resource Corp (OCO.v): We were waiting for this news and it came on Monday (3).
Here’s the first paragraph with the main details:
VANCOUVER, CANADA, November 20, 2023 – Oroco Resource Corporation.
(“Oroco” or the “Company”) (TSXV: OCO; OTCQB: ORRCF, BF: OR6) is pleased to
announce a non-brokered private placement to raise gross proceeds of up to
$2,500,000 (the "Private Placement") through the issuance of up to 6,250,000 units
(each a "Unit") at a price of $0.40 per Unit. Each Unit is comprised of one common
share in the equity of the Company (each, a “Share”) and one share purchase warrant
entitling the holder to acquire one additional Share for a period of 18 months from the
closing date for $0.65.
The price was right where we expected, the whole OCO.v: Shares Out
warrant at 65c also came as zero surprise. The only
issue is the size, as C$2.5m isn’t going to fund this
company for long and implies that OCO will go back
to market in the first half of 2024 for more. That’s the same type of self-inflicted weakness we saw
Pan Global (PGZ.v, see below) add into its structure
before it altered course and decided to raise C$6m
instead of just $2m. Also, if it goes this piecemeal
way OCO is in danger of getting trapped in a cycle
of endless “updated PEAs”, as running a second
scoping study is a lot (as in A LOT) cheaper than
doing the amount of infill drilling it would need to transform its inferred resource count (allowed
in a PEA) into M+I, the minimum level required for a Pre-Feas (PFS).
Libero Copper (LBC.v): Open up the sluices (4):
Vancouver, BC – November 22, 2023 – Libero Copper & Gold Corporation
(TSXV:LBC, OTCQB:LBCMF, DE:29H) (“Libero Copper”) announces that it will be
conducting a rights offering to holders of its common shares at the close of business
on the record date of December 1, 2023 (the “Record Date”). The offering will be for
123,074,103 common shares to raise gross proceeds of C$2,461,482 (the “Rights
Offering”). The Rights Offering is being undertaken to provide funds for exploration,
working capital and general corporate purposes.
A rights offering is a logical move at this point, it also means massive dilution for anyone
unwilling to throw good money after bad. It will be interesting to see how many of those 123m
rights are taken up when the offering closes at the end of next month. There’s also a high
1.501
4.741 1.751 1.271 5.681 1.981 5.191 3.391 4.391 9.402 9.502 0.702 0.702 4.312 1.612 1.612 4.222
250
225
200
175
150
125 100
75
50
25
0
02.bef 02.yam 02.gua 02.von 12.bef 12.yam 12.gua 12.von 22.bef 22.yam 22.gua 22.von 32.bef 32.yam 32.gua 32.von tse42.bef
source: company filings
serahs
fo snoillim
likelihood of a rollback at some point in early 2024. Don’t say I didn’t warn you.
Atacama Copper (ACOP.v): A brief reminder that ACOP remains halted. It’s now been a full
month since the announcement it was RTO’ing with a privco with assets in Mexico and that’s a
long time to remain under halt, so there may be a few unforeseen regulatory hoops that
Warman and his people need to jump through. If I were long the stock I’d be on his tail and
wanting to know why, but I’m not so I won’t.
Regulus Resources (REG.v): The second near-term
chart in as many weeks showing the way REG ticks
down on any reasonable volume and then gets propped
by an exercise in tape-painting. Nothing else to say,
except perhaps how we’re again seeing this team using
the social media back channels to disseminate
information instead of publishing anything official via a
NR. It’s 2021 all over again and back then, it was
community issues that delayed progress at AntaKori.
The Producer Basket
After 47 weeks of 2023, the Producer Basket shows a gain of 7.70% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 47.20 1152.6 43.33 37.59 -20.4%
2 Barrick GOLD 17.18 1761.54 28.59 16.23 -5.5%
3 Agnico Eagle AEM 51.99 488.9 24.36 49.82 -4.2%
4 Wheaton PM WPM 39.08 451.963 21.45 47.46 21.4%
5 Kinross Gold KGC 4.09 1256.1 7.01 5.58 36.4%
6 Alamos Gold AGI 10.11 393.1 5.38 13.69 35.4%
7 B2Gold BTG 3.57 1074.567 3.29 3.06 -14.3%
8 Hecla Mining GFI 5.56 610.491 2.94 4.81 -13.5%
9 Eldorado Gold EGO 8.36 185.73 2.22 11.97 43.2%
10 Wesdome Gold WDOFF 5.53 147.526 0.80 5.44 -1.6%
All prices and stock quotes in U$ Port. avg 7.70%
A second week in which all ten of our basket components registered gains and that’s a good
thing for one and all, the rally driven by the gold price move with our proxy GLD up 1.0%, week
over week. Our picks again did better than the GDX benchmark (+3.1%) and the lead has
stretched to 5.4% with just the Sundays of December to go. No counting of chickens but it’s
looking good for the winning streak to add another year. There was another reasonably wide
range to the moves, from B3Gold (BTG up 1.0%) and Wesdome (WDOFF up 1.7%) at the
bottom of the pile to Eldorado (EGO up 7.5%) and Alamos (AGI up 6.7%) heading the field.
The 2023 Producer Basket: Percentage difference
between GDX benchmark & basket (negative = IKN ahead)
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
-4.0%
-5.0%
-6.0%
15
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2yluj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6gua ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3pes ht01 ht71 ht42 ts1tco ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5von ht21 ht91 ht62
The 2023 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
comparative to GDX control
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
source: IKN calcs, NYSE data -10%
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2yluj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6gua ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3pes ht01 ht71 ht42 ts1tco ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5von ht21 ht91 ht62
ikn
gdx control
source: NYSE, IKN calcs
Eldorado Gold (EGO) (ELD.to): The main fundies note of IKN754 dated October 29th,
“Eldorado Gold (EGO) (ELD.to): An improving Tier 2 producer”, laid out the reasons why I
believe this is one of the more attractively priced mid-tier goldies at the moment. By way of a
quick reminder, here’s how that note wrapped up:
“…EGO has impressed this year and its share price gains have deservedly been at the front of the
pack, especially as it seems to have done the thing so many other larger producers have failed to
do recently by getting its costs under control. As it stands today it’s no longer a massive bargain
and with EQX and FSM about to report their potential catalyst earnings to market, my personal
preference remains with those stocks. However, EGO must be on your shortlist and is without
doubt one of the quickest improving gold mine stocks available. Don’t be surprised if I pull the
trigger one of these fine days.”
We then followed up the next weekend in IKN 755 with “Mailbag on Eldorado Gold (EGO)
(ELD.to) at Perama Hill”, adding an extra ingredient to the bullish outlook as we remembered
how good the eponymous pipeline project in North
Greece was. We’re four (or three) weeks on from that
more detailed coverage on EGO, let’s see how things
have been going (right):
That’s a reasonably good move, as compared to a
flat/slightly positive gold price (GLD) and sector
benchmark (GDX). Admittedly EGO and its +17%
performance hasn’t done quite as well as Fortuna (FSM
+28%) in the same period, but it’s beating my other
pick at the time Equinox (EQX +10%) and for its size,
that’s an impressive move. We picked EGO for this
basket at the start of the year as a potential out-
performer on the likelihood that Skouries would get the green light, then we particularly liked
its 3q23 financials as they showed better margins and (key for the current market) control over
costs. This stock is a dead cert to stay on our Producer Basket list in 2024 and we’re looking for
more good news from its Q4.
Wesdome Gold (WDO.to (WDOFF): On the other hand, WDO has lagged the field recently
and I don’t really know why:
Perhaps due to a growing realization that the Kiena Deep zone isn’t coming online for another
two quarters at least, perhaps due to the way the balance sheet took a step backwards in its
Q3 financials. This working cap tracking chart
80 WDO.to: Working Capital per qtr
(right) was part of our concise-ish coverage of the
70
WDO 3q23 numbers in IKN756 dated November 60
12th (two weeks ago) and the “watch don’t touch” 50
40
thought about WDO that day has been underscored 30
20
since then. However, I do feel WDO is getting a bit
10
of a raw deal in the market at the moment and the 0
-10
potential for the stock to play catch-up is there.
-20
-30
16 -40
-50
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3
source company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
The TinyCaps List
After 47 weeks of 2023, the TinyCaps show a gain of 15.43% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Aurelius Min AUL.v 0.07 49.787 1.00 0.02 -71.4%
Coast Copper COCO.v 0.045 64.001 2.88 0.045 0.0%
District Metals DMX.v 0.075 86.891 15.64 0.18 140.0%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.13 69.962 4.90 0.07 -46.2%
Manitou Gold MTU.v 0.02 344.568 18.95 0.055 175.0%
Nine Mile Metals NINE.cse 0.29 57.025 6.27 0.110 -62.1%
Palamina Corp PA.v 0.08 65.285 6.20 0.095 18.8%
Precipitate Gold PRG.v 0.075 130.367 7.82 0.06 -20.0%
South Star STS.v 0.55 40.129 28.89 0.72 30.9%
Viva Gold VAU.v 0.14 106.721 13.34 0.125 -10.7%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 15.43%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
Market capitalization of under $20m. They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a
little and allowed sub-U$20m market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, but it was a particularly depressing exercise to trawl through the whole of the TSXV and find companies
that are small enough, but with life in them. The vast majority of sub-$20m stocks are broken stocks, either
traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2023. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
Of our ten TinyCaps components, four were losers on TinyCaps, 2023 weekly tracker
50%
the week (DMX.v, LMS.v, STS.v, VAU.v), four were 45%
unchanged (AUL.v, MTU.v, PA.v, PRG.v) and two 40%
35%
were winners (COCO.v, NINE.cse) and of all those,
30%
the only interesting moves came once again from 25%
20%
Nine Mile Metals (NINE.cse up 15.8%) and we take a
15%
look at the newsflow on that stock below. 10%
5%
0%
Palamina Corp (PA.v): Good news and bad news.
And good news.
The good news: PA has finally received the
missing water permits it required for its drill program at Usicayos. It took most of
the year and way more red tape than it should, but the project is now fully
permitted for drilling.
The bad news: We’re now in the umbra of the South Peru rainy season and due to
the seemingly interminable delay, there’s little point in starting the drill turning now.
On consulting with the company, I was told that they *might* try to get a hole in before the
Christmas break and subsequent rains, but the more sensible option will be to wait until March
next year and for what it’s worth, I agree (knowing what the rains can be like in that corner of
the world). But the other good news is that the Winshear (WINS.v) cash distribution will be
done and dusted by then and PA is slated to have around C$3m in treasury with no further
share dilution. That’s good money for a tinycap and means it’s fully funded for 2024. This stock
at sub-10c is a decent option for those of you willing to play the very high risks of exploreco
drill plays. It would only take one decent hit for a multiple bagger win and the company is
about to stick holes in what it considers to be one of the most prospective zones of its large
17
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2yluj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6gua ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3pes ht01 ht71 ht42 ts1tco ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5von ht21 ht91 ht62
source: IKN calcs, TSX data
concession footprint.
Nine Mile Metals (NINE.cse): Last weekend in IJKN757 we noted the 50% move in NINE
that had just occurred on the back of what is essentially a “we have started drilling” NR. This
week the mondo bizarre continues:
The pump continued and pushed the stock up to 13c before the company announced it was
raising funds. Things calmed down slightly after that, but the weekend close of 11c is still close
on a double in the space of two weeks. But the truly bizarre is what was in last week’s NR (5),
as NINE announced it was receiving a loan of C$500,000. The terms of that loan are impressive
(and not in a good way). Strings include_
A 12 month maturity paying 12% over the year (i.e. C$60,000)
909,091 bonus shares priced for the creditors, priced at a nominal 11c (ticket C$100k)
Up to $40k cash in finders’ fees
Up to 285,714 bonus warrants in finders’ fees
And somehow, the stock managed to hold onto its gains despite its Bathurst project previously
disappointing, despite it being pumped on “visual assays” before the real lab results failed to
live up to expectations and despite, despite net vig on the $500k of perhaps C$240k to the
benefit of unnamed third parties (though insiders can take 25% and almost certainly will at
these terms). Watching NINE trade last week before, during and after the publication of the last
two NRs was a timely reminder for me personally that there are some truly stupid people
investing in this sector. Avoid this clown show like the veritable plague.
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future
I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
Updating on First Quantum (FM.to) and the Panama Cobre mess
We started this series six weeks ago, we’ve tried not to overplay its significance, we’ve watched
the political backdrop deteriorate and now we need to pay closer attention to the developing
story around Panama Cobre, as there’s a trade set-up developing. As from last Friday November
24th, the country’s Supreme Court (CSJ) began its formal hearings and deliberations on the suits
brought against the contract signed between the State and Panama Cobre, the big copper mine
owned by First Quantum (FM.to) and a major part of its asset base and income (and
incidentally, a mine that makes a difference to the top line revenues at Franco-Nevada (FNV)),
holding as it does a valuable NSR on the operation).
The process now brings this issue to a head, as unless the CSJ tries to drag the process out it
puts the clock on a decision that should now come with ten working days. Or as Reuters put it
in its coverage note last week (6):
The court has not given a timeline to release the verdict, but some lawyers and officials
expect a decision in the coming days or weeks.
18
That note is useful background, as it also underscores some of the basic motivations
for the ongoing troubles:
The demonstrations have turned into an anti-government movement, with protesters
demanding an end to all mining activity in the country.
It also adds the “international justice” angle (let’s say, to be diplomatic):
“The movement has also gained support from activist Greta Thunberg and Hollywood
actor Leonardo Di Caprio, who last weekend shared a video from an environmental
group that called for the Supreme Court to cancel the contract.”
More on the difference between law and justice in a moment, but before we leave Reuters I
feel the need to comment on what can only be called clickbait by a media company that’s
usually more level-headed and responsible than this headline (7), a separate report from the
same company that made the rounds quickly last week:
“Panama court likely to revoke First Quantum copper mine contract”
It takes the reader until paragraph ten to find out the Reuters definition of “likely”:
Two Panamanian prosecutors have deemed the contract unconstitutional after
examining legal challenges submitted to the court.
However, Maritza Cedeno, the president of the country's bar association, noted that
past rulings have deviated from the initial positions of these officials.
She declined to disclose her stance, saying the court should work without pressures.
Four out of the seven lawyers polled by Reuters predicted the top court will nullify the
contract, possibly as soon as mid-December. Two others believe the court will uphold
the contract, while one remains uncertain.
Even at the best of times, seven lawyers isn’t much of a sample and it’s certainly not enough
when you change “four out of seven” into a blazing heading “likely to revoke”. This desk isn’t
trying to second-guess the CSJ decision (see below), but is warning readers to be very careful
about this type of media coverage.
We move on. The suite of suits (4 or 5, memory fails) claim the contract is unconstitutional for
overlapping reasons and the whole of Panama is watching, as whatever the decision it’s going
to be controversial. There are nuances to the eventual ruling and it’s possible that the CSJ
upholds some arguments and strikes down others, but to get down to the basics…
If the CSJ rules the contract as constitutional, it is bound to spark further protests around
the country. FM.to at Panama Cobre last week notified that it was winding down
operations to the port blockade and its lack of essential supplies, so the mine is likely to
go to essential care & maintenance if protests continue.
If the CSJ rules the contract as unconstitutional, the government may order the mine to
shut down. We’re now in a different and more serious phase of this issue than when it
first flared up and whether or not the mine stops work in reality, the government will be
obliged to issue a stop work order. This would open the door to an inevitable
international tribunal case by FM.to against the country of Panama.
However, we note that FM.to and its legal team believe the mine will be able to continue
operating. The government may attempt to order a shutdown, but the mine’s legal
position looks strong and this interview with its local legal team (8) notes that even if the
contract is rescinded, the likely worse case in the near-term is seeing the two sides
return to the negotiation table even as the mine continues to work. They base this legal
opinion on the fact that any decision on the constitutionality of the current contract
cannot be applied retroactively and therefore does not affect any permits or asset
ownership previously awarded. And FWIW, that interview with the company lawyers is
very interesting and lays out its strong case for the current spat and for any eventual
international tribunal case.
As for what the CSJ will decide, strictly speaking (and this opinion is backed by Panamanian
lawyers known to this desk), even though the general public is clamouring for some type of
19
social, political and/or environmental justice, the CSJ decision should be wholly based on the
law and there’s little room for a “justice” call. As the process of negotiation between FM and the
government of Panama is well documented and the agreement was signed, approved by
executive and Congress and signed into law, the case for it being constitutional is strong and
that’s how the CSJ should rule. However, that says “should” rather than “will” or “must” and
there have been weirder decisions out of LatAm than one from a CSJ that bends to public
opinion. However, we do know the CSJ has been put between a rock and hard place as its
decision is going to be unpopular with one or the other side, no matter what happens.
As for the stocks, this desk agrees with the company legal team and firmly believes FM will
have a strong case in front of any international tribunal. We can argue the way it refused to
come to the negotiation table or honour its heads-up agreement before the government got
strict in 2022 and forced the company into a deal (else close down the mine, something that
began to happen), but the basics matter. Cobre Panama was awarded concessions legally, it
developed the asset legally, was awarded operating, enviro, water and all other permits legally,
it then went ahead and invested its capital and built its mine legally and its backers in turn
invested under the tacit understanding that it would be a profitable business deal for all. If after
all that and when in operation, the same country unilaterally decides the mine is illegal it faces
a uphill struggle in front of any neutral courtroom and the compensation award would be
nothing short of enormous.
Which brings us to the trade set-up. Though tempted to say “bet on the CSJ deciding the deal
is constitutional”, that’s far from a given. Counter-intuitively, a positive result for the contract
may be a negative for FM.to and its share price as it becomes Piñata Número Uno in Panama
for the campaign for the May 2024 Presidential election. Instead, the smarter trade may be to
wait and watch because, if the CSJ goes the “Justice Route” by appeasing the population and
ruling the deal as unconstitutional, the sell-off in FM shares that will immediately follow is the
gilt-edged opportunity in this entire sorry story, which is where we come in. There are three
likely potential outcomes if the CSJ rules against Cobre Panama:
1) The two sides sit down and thrash out a deal without getting to international
arbitration.
2) The two go to international arbitration, FM wins.
3) The two go to international arbitration, FM loses.
Please note that an eventual mine shuttering on government order is not impossible, merely
less likely than current public opinion seems to believe. Even if it’s closed, it will not affect its
prospects at tribunal. As for the three options above, the third and final is by far the least likely.
It would be a latent concern in any trade of course, but it would be a small one and worth
taking. The other two are clearly possible and both routes would see FM’s share price recover,
though we must point out that any international tribunal would likely take years and the time
value of money would be a factor in how quickly the stock price recovers. Here are charts
showing the price action in absolute and comparative terms of FM.to, as well as the other
potential trade in Franco-Nevada (FNV):
Twelve months of First Quantum (FM.to):
20
Twelve months of Franco-Nevada (FNV):
Sticking with the main event, a reasonable estimate for FM.to Cobre Panama priced at zero
today would be around U$9, so perhaps C$11.20 and we may see that type of number in panic
selling on any adverse decision for the company. That would be the main window of
opportunity and while we’re not going to see the C$20 or C$25 levels again in the near future,
once the doomsday scenarios for FM are discounted and the market sees there will either be a
1) new deal struck or 2) a courtroom win for FM with massive compensation awarded the share
price will recover.
Way back in IKN753 dated October 22nd and the Regional Politics note “Panama: More protests
coming for Cobre Panama”, we mentioned the growing protests against the deal and the mine a
couple of days after the contract had been rammed through Congress and the week before the
whole issue blew up into the international headline maker of today. Since then a lot has
changed and it’s become a bigger deal than I expected (e.g. didn’t expect the FM share price to
be whacked as hard as it has), but back in that note we still got the main cause right, that
came in its last paragraph:
So Panama’s opposition has objected to the way this deal has been rammed
through Congress and frankly, their howls of protest are more about the
Presidential election coming up on May 5th 2024 than anything else. That’s an
issue for FM.to, because those who want to be next President have decided to
make the mine their political football and that means the current antipathy
toward one of the biggest copper producers in The Americas (and therefore
the world) is bound to continue for at least six months and, if the “wrong”
guys get in, FM.to will have to go through the whole negotiation process
again.
Now for sure since then a whole bunch of other interest groups have piled on (unions, enviro
NGOs, locals who don’t like the mine and its effects, Catholic church, etc) but the above is still
essentially correct. This isn’t going away on the day the CSJ hands down its decision and that is
a potential trade opportunity for those who see FM has plenty of options to fall back on, with
only one of them being a U$10Bn compensation payout from an ICSID trial.
Argentina: Milei’s and his Secretary of Mining
Toute nation a le gouvernement
qu'elle mérite.
Joseph de Maistre, 1811
Genial and charismatic,, full of bright ideas, but unstable, psychologically damaged and prone
to sudden fits of temper. That’s Argentina and now, as every nation gets the government it
deserves, it has a President to match its character. Anyone turning to political of LatAm (or
both) news last week would have seen plenty of column inches on Javier Milei, the new
President-Elect of Argentina after beating Sergio Massa in a semi-landslide in last weekend’s
run-off election (see IKN757). That news has evolved from merely national/regional into
international, with world media channels picking up on the eccentricities of Milei as well as his
21
Libertarian political standpoint and pledges to make sweeping changes to Argentina and its
political system. He takes over from the current government on December 10th, which means
we’re now in the very brief handover/transition period. The nature of the Argentine year means
that once Christmas and the New Year period is upon us, his government will have time to bed
in as the world goes on vacation in January and Buenos Aires only gets back to work in
February, but all the same Milei/his team have a tight schedule to put together a cabinet of
minister and a coherent government before assuming as Head of State.
The good news for us mining heads is that he’s already named his Secretary (i.e. Minister) of
Mining. He is one Sergio Arbeleche, who is a lawyer with deep experience in the mining sector
as well as energy and renewable resources. Arbeleche is not a politician and to date has kept a
generally low profile (e.g. I’d never heard of him before last week), but his nomination seems
to have gone down well with the Argentine mining world. His most recent role was as a partner
in a legal firm in Rioja province where he worked with national and foreign mining companies,
oil & gas companies. As an example, he has reportedly provided legal services for the Veladero
and Gualcamayo mines, as well as the Josemaria project. Though based in the mining-
ambivalent province of Rioja, a lot of his work came from the neighbouring pro-mining San
Juan province and this report on his background (9) quotes several sources that were happy to
go on record about the man and tell the world of his deep experience, understanding of the
mining sector as well as his personal integrity. All this sounds pretty good to this desk and no
matter how well Milei’s honeymoon period goes on the national level (closing the Central Bank
and all that), he seems to have chosen well for the mining sector and we wish Señor Arbeleche
the best of fortune in his new role.
Also, Arbeleche he seems to know more about the world of hard rock mining than his newly
appointed counterpart in Ecuador.
Ecuador’s new President picks his Mining Minister
Ecuador has a new President. As from last Thursday (and brought forward from the original
slated date), Daniel Noboa took over as Head of State and will see out the current mandate
period to May 2025 after (now ex-) President Guillermo Lasso stepped aside. Though reception
for the new President and his first policy moves are interesting for a political such as I, here
we’re going to keep on-topic (for once) and consider the country’s newly appoint Minister of
Energy and Mines.
Here name is Andrea Arrobo (10), she is 33 years old and comes from the energy sector side of
the equation into her new role. She spent six years as a public servant in the Ministry of
Electricity and Renewable Energy, then in 2017 went to work for an NGO covering energy
affairs and promoting renewable energy over the wider LatAm and Caribbean region. Then she
moved to the private sector and for the last two years working at Hydrogène de France (HDF
Energy) as its business development officer for Ecuador. In other words, the new minister in
charge of the mining sector knows nothing about the mining industry and will undoubtedly lean
heavily on her Vice-Minister for Mining, who has yet to be named. Does not bode well, have to
say.
Colombia: Zijin Mining files suit against Colombia
This is an interesting development out of Colombia that may have far-reaching consequences.
On Wednesday, China’s Zijin Mining, owners of the Buriticá gold mine in Antioquia, informed
the government that it was starting the process of international arbitration against the
government of Colombia for its failure to provide the necessary conditions of security art and
around its mine. The Buriticá mine has suffered no end of attacks by illegal miners connected to
the Clan Del Golfo cartel, including underground explosives attacks that left two of its workers
dead in May and no end of injuries from confrontations. Zijin has now withdrawn its workforce
from the underground mine due to its safety concerns and the asset is now fully in the hands of
the illegal miners backed by the Clan, a group originally formed by ultra right wing
paramilitaries but these days, heavily into narco trafficking in zones where the left wing FARC-
EP used to operate during the Colombia civil war. Suffice to say, nasty pieces of work whatever
22
their ostensible political allegiances.
This formal notice is the first stage in any international arbitration process (typically via the
ICSID/CIADI tribunal body) and in Zijin’s perfect world, would be enough to get the Petro
government’s attention and to the negotiation table in order to work out a solution (presumably
involving the country’s armed forces). However, it may turn out to be counter-productive for
the country’s mining sector, as if the Petro admin decides to play hardball and ignore the case,
the resulting lawsuit could snowball into yet another reason the country should eschew the
mining sector and its development. It’s not a difficult logical leap to imagine the left-wing and
rather anti-mining Petro using this case as an example of how “transnationals come in and use
neoliberal rules to sack and rape the country etc etc”. (11) (12)
Market Watching
Newcore Gold (NCAU.v): 3q23 financials
Friday evening saw our small-ish speculation on gold exploration in West Africa, Newcore Gold
(NCAU.v), file its 3q23 financials and here’s the concise run-through of the main numbers in
just six charts and a few words scattered between them. We begin with the overview balance
sheet visuals, but these aren’t the most interesting visuals and included more for obligation
than enlightenment. If anything, the assets and liabilities breakdown charts state “business as
usual” and no issues to report.
NCAU.v: Assets
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Liquidity is more interesting. Cash treasury at C$4.86m is higher than our expected C$3m and
shows admirable parsimony on the part of the company. Keeping treasury intact is always
important, but at present it’s a critical factor in avoiding equity price deterioration (or “further”
deterioration, perhaps better said) as we’ve seen no end of explorecos come under severe
market pressure when treasury dwindles and the market senses they are about to go to market
in order to raise more capital (e.g. see above for Oroco and Pan Global, but many others in this
list). Working cap has held up as well and this hold NCAU in good stead for 2024. That cash
won’t last forever and if they program an extensive drill program for the year ahead, that cash
will surely drain away. But NCAU today is not under the same type of pressure that a lot of
other small explorecos are suffering and it offers them the option of choice and to make
strategic decisions.
23
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
$m NCAU.v: Liabilities per qtr
5
fixed 4.5
other current 4
cash+ST 3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
source: company filings
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
LT liabs
current liabs
16 NCAU.v: Working Capital per qtr
14
12
10
8
6 4
2
0
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
source company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
NCAU.v: Cash treasury per qtr
425.0 591.0 899.2 380.2
212.31
775.8
867.3
888.8 525.5
742.3
128.1
220.5
685.3
428.0
376.5 858.4
8.3
16
14
12
10
8
6 4
2
0
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
Here’s why cash has held up: Expenses (below left) have been cut to little more than
background burn, with perhaps a slight uptick in IR/marketing but nothing excessive. That
means our final chart of shares out (below right) has held rock solid and what’s more, we can
expect it to remain that way; certainly to the end of the year and highly likely well into FY24.
NCAU.v: Expenses breakdown
1.9
1.7
1.5
1.3
1.1
0.9
0.7
0.5
0.3
0.1
-0.1
-0.3
-0.5
24
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3
C$m
other exp
IR &marketing
Share based comp
Mgmt fees
source: company filings
Not a deep look at NCAU this time, but the 200 NCAU.v: Shares Out
180
financial update came in better than expected and
160
the company deserves warm applause for sipping
140
at that cash position and not running an 120
excessively expensive corporate structure. This is 100
80 the type of thing we see from companies that are
60
truly aligned with their shareholder base, rather
40
than merely paying lip-service to the idea. 20
0
American Eagle (AE.v) and insider buyers
Maybe it’s time to get this on the Watch List, what
with it now making regular appearances in ‘Market Watching’. Last week in the redux post we
reiterated our basic philosophy on this potential trade: A high risk drill play that can bounce on
the eventual drill assay NR, as that’s what it has already done on several occasions in the last
12 months.
Last week didn’t give us the pending assay results, but we did get market moving news that
popped the stock from the approx 20c level of last week to the 27c close this Friday. In a
couple of quickfire NRs (13) (14), AE first announced and then closed an “…investment from
strategic investors”, namely Teck (already on board as a strategic) and the “...well-known
British Columbia geologist C.J. “Charlie” Greig”, who in the words fo AE CEO Anthony Moreau
“…is our lead geological advisor, and is intimately aware of the details of our Project.”
Here are details of the placement, via relevant bullet points from the announcements:
Teck is investing $435,375 by purchasing 2,025,000 common shares at $0.215 per share
Charlie Greig is investing $250,000 by purchasing 1,162,790 common shares at $0.215
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
source: company filings
serahs
fo
snoillim
per share
The $0.215 price matches American Eagle’s price to repurchase its 20% interest in its
NAK copper-gold porphyry project from Orecap Invest Corp
No warrants or finders fees will be issued with this financing
If you want more from Mr. Greig on why he’s decided to double his stake in AE.v, this YouTube
video makes very interesting viewing. This is interesting news and it has now potentially primed
the share price to break out of its recent trading range if the pending assays match what is now
somewhat elevated market expectations. As for me, I’m going to keep an eye on AE without
buying for the time being, as even though AE isn’t a likely target for Tax Loss Selling in
December, the strategy of maintaining a treasury warchest until the back end of the Canadian
Tax Loss Selling period remains intact.
Western Exploration (WEX.v): Selling
Here we go with an “Anatomy of a Failed Trade” note to close out today’s edition, in which we
call SELL on what can only be described as an unmitigated disaster of an investment, no matter
how small or manageable it is in real cash terms. We’ve been underwater in this position ever
since it opened in April (once its funding round had closed) and as its set-up was always as a
drill play on its large Aura project in NV USA, including its main Doby George, Gravel Creeks
and Wood Gulch targets. Due to that, the policy was to buy an initial tranche (in fact I bought
twice, but nothing big), then give the company the time to run its plan and once initial drill
results were in, decide whether to add, hold or sell. And what could possibly go wrong?
As Robert Burns knew full well, the best laid
schemes o’ mice an’ men gang aft agley, an’ lea’e
us nought but grief an’ pain for promis’d joy. The
plan was all well and good, but the first major hitch
came when WEX had a long delay in receiving its
drill permits. These things happen and it’s
annoying, but when you’ve bet on a drill play and
know delays happen in the smallcap mining world,
you try to roll with it. But another thing this desk
didn’t expect from company with such a tight
corporate share structure (big holders the
Schlumberger oil field services family) was the
incessant selling as instos clipped their warrants
into a bear market for explorecos. That shows on the 12-month price chart right and in the last
couple of months, it’s become increasingly difficult to think about this trade with anything but a
grimace on the face.
However, by Q3 the drill permit was in place and the drills turning, so it made sense to hold
until the (over)long-await first assays showed up, as the attraction of this trade has always
been the potential at depth at its Gravel Creek target and the company’s belief that previous
programs on the asset had failed to unlock what they believed was there. Which brings us to
last week and on Tuesday November 21st, over seven months from our opening position in the
company, the first assay NR was published (15) and…
25
…it didn’t go well. This table (below) from the NR shows the breakdown of the reported hole
from Gravel Creek, WG456, and while we knew that it had depth to travel before hitting the
target mineralization we wanted more from the mineralized zone than we got. The table is a
little complicated at first sight but essentially covers six levels of vein intersects, so I’ve boxed
those areas together in the Start/End columns. Then in the Interval and AuEq colums, the red
boxes show the main intersects:
It was by no means a duster of a hole, what with 4.7m of 9.2g/t AuEq coming at 544m and
then the others as seen at further depth, but what we have here are returns that are the same
as historic intersects and not the “We think there’s a lot more” results WEX had framed
previously. And amenable geography or not, these hits at these depths are only marginally
economic at best.
T
he CEO comments were also indicative of a disappointing result, as WEX cEIO Darcy Marud
had to fall back on geol-speak. For example, “The integration of structural surface alteration
and geochemical data generated by the 2023 core drilling program has brought greater
understanding of the controls on the high-grade veins…”. You don’t say! That’s what any drill
hole does, sir. We also got to read that, “Significant additional oriented core drilling is justified
to better define the vein trends…”, another quote from the Captain Obvious book of geology.
Which brings us to the other news from WEX last week, as it filed its 3q23 financials and this
now matters. While we acknowledge that the WEX share count remains admirably tight and
should stay that way until the end of the year, the phase 1 scout drill program is now complete
and saw admin rise to C$2m in the quarter.
WEX.v: Shares Out
That leaves cash treasury (below left) at C$1.372m and working cap (below right) at just over
C$1m and even if we assume WEX goes back to low burn this quarter and preserves capital,
the company will exit 2023 with less than C$1m at bank.
26
534.03 406.03 766.03 766.03 184.13 184.13 054.43 54.43 054.43
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
source: company filings
serahs
fo
snoillim
WEX.v: Admin expenses
3.25
3
2.75
2.5
2.25
2
1.75
1.5
1.25
1
0.75
0.5
0.25
0
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
C$m
other exp
G&A
other exp
Land
Geological
drilling
source: company filings
6 WEX.v: Working Capital per qtr
5.5
5
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5 2
1.5
1
0.5
0
12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
source company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
WEX.v: Cash treasury per qtr
91.0
694.5
168.3 241.3
331.1 662.1
747.0
970.3
273.1
8.0
6
5.5
5
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5 2
1.5
1
0.5
0
12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
That compares to its plans for the year ahead, e.g. this from the 3q23 MD&A:
We know they want to drill and Phase 2 has been planned, but the outline budget for the
program is C$16.2m. While WEX is one of the fortunate explorecos backed by deep-pocketed
sponsors and they may well be able to raise that sort of cash, it means significant dilution is on
the way and when the initial results from Gravel Creek weren’t of the sort to set the world
alight, that means the share price is going to come under more pressure before the company
has the chance to turn things around with better drill assay results.
Bottom line: Too many things have gone badly at this company to continue holding its shares
and big loser or not, it’s time to cauterize, sell, realize the loss, take it on the chin and move on.
Not my finest hour by any means, but I can’t help feeling a bit of a victim of circumstances
here. The combo of…
My obstinacy of giving the company until it produced drill numbers
The delay in permitting
The sub-standard assay results from the first drills
The non-stop selling of paper out the gate
The weak market for this type of exploreco story
…means the loss is mostly my own fault, but when you go into a trade with the intention of
giving the drill play the opportunity to impress with assays, it’s only fair (I think) to allow it the
chance. This is and always will be a very high risk sector and while sometimes there are
reasonable ways to explain a loss (or a win), sometimes you just get one plain wrong from start
to finish. That’s the true bottom line of this trade. Finally, please note that I will not be selling
out of the gate first thing tomorrow morning, as it’s only right to give anyone out there the
honours if they so desire. I will wait until Wednesday minimum before selling and won’t be in a
rush to do so. This time next week WEX will be in the closed trades section of the Stocks to
Follow list, but if I’m not fully out then so be it.
Conclusion
IKN758 is done, we end with bullet points:
While there are reasons to be cheerful about the current market, I’m still making every
effort to preserve the cash in treasury and won’t make any further purchases until
we’re the other side of Tax Loss Selling.
The other major downer is the failure of Western Exploration, it’s never fun to sell a
remnant loser and this trade has offered nothing but pain, start to finish. We always
have the option to buy back in if they do hit something interesting in 2024, but that’s
enough for this time around and the small amount of cash I rescue from this big
percentage loser will add to the warchest.
Hopefully Minera Alamos won’t add to the misery next week. Expect a forensic
examination on the back of its Q3 in next weekend’s edition, it’s about time we got
proactive with this out-sized position.
It’s been interesting to watch social media as the world starts to catch up on the Javier
Milei show, something we’ve had down this end of the world for a good couple of years
(and intensely in the last six months). He’s certainly charmed the pants off the
libertarian leaning hard money sector of the mining world and is the right mix to appeal
to those in the English-speaking North who yearn for real change. But that’s not going
27
to change my personal opinion of the man, he is a moral vacuum, unfit to be the Head
of State of any country and all-round bad news. However, when it ends badly his die-
hard fans will always be able to cook up some sort of conspiracy theory to hide the fact
they became fanboys of a wretch. I just hope these next few years don’t cost Argentina
too much, aside the embarrassment he is bound to cause the country and wider region.
Plenty of tradable set-ups beginning to show, aside from just Soma Gold (SOMA.v).
There’s Palamina (PA.v) at one end of the market cap scale, First Quantum (FM.to) at
the other and somewhere in the middle Eldorado (EGO) is showing signs of running
again. But I’ll stick with my best bet for a near-term trade, that’s Equinox (EQX).
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stock is Minera Alamos (MAI.v). Flash
updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best wishes, Mark
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/metals-copper-on-track-for-another-weekly-gain
(2) https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/copper-supply-rethink-smelter-treatment-charges-fall-2023-11-23/
(3) https://orocoresourcecorp.com/news/oroco-announces-private-placement-20231120
(4) https://liberocopper.com/_resources/Libero%20Announcing%20Rights%20Offering%20NR%20Final.pdf
(5) https://ninemilemetals.com/nine-mile-metals-announces-loan-financing/
(6) https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/panamas-top-court-weighs-challenges-first-quantum-copper-mine-
contract-2023-11-24/
(7) https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/panama-court-likely-revoke-first-quantum-copper-mine-
contract-2023-11-13/
(8) https://www.prensa.com/economia/hay-una-campana-de-desinformacion-manipulacion-y-mentiras-inocencio-
galindo/
(9) https://www.tiempodesanjuan.com/economia/las-mineras-sanjuaninas-aliviadas-arbeleche-mineria-dicen-que-
conoce-san-juan-y-las-leyes-del-sector-n363454
(10) https://www.mineria-pa.com/noticias/andrea-arrobo-es-la-nueva-ministra-de-energia-y-minas-de-ecuador/
(11) https://www.bluradio.com/judicial/millonaria-demanda-contra-colombia-por-no-garantizar-seguridad-en-minas-de-
buritica-rg10
(12) https://www.portafolio.co/negocios/empresas/zijin-continental-gold-demando-al-estado-colombiano-por-no-
garantizar-seguridad-592989
(13) https://americaneaglegold.ca/news/american-eagle-gold-announces-investment-from-strategic-investors/
(14) https://americaneaglegold.ca/news/american-eagle-gold-closes-investment-from-strategic-investors/
(15) https://www.westernexploration.com/news-and-updates/news/news-details/2023/Western-Exploration-Provides-
Update-on-Drilling-Activities-at-Gravel-Creek/default.aspx
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2022
Closed in 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
28
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
Goldshore Res GSHR.v Nov'22 C$0.18 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 88.9% Quick profit taken
Palamina Corp PA.v Dec'22 C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.08 -72.9% Clear-out of underperformer
Pure Gold PGM.h Dec'22 C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.015 -89.3% tiny trade on vh risk, went Ch11
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Set-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
29
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
30
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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