IKN #757Premium

The IKN Weekly
Week 757, November 19th 2023
Contents
This Week: In Today’s Edition, No big intro today.
Fundamental Analysis: Argonaut Gold (AR.to) (ARNGF) and an impending trade set-up.
Stocks to Follow: Amerigo Resources (ARG.to), Marimaca Copper (MARI.to), Ero Copper
(ERO.to) (ERO), SolGold (SOLG.to) (SOLG.L), Minera Alamos (MAI.v), Contango ORE (CTGO),
Fortuna Silver (FSM) (FVI.to), Equinox Gold (EQX) (EQX.to).
The Copper Basket: Overview, Regulus Resources (REG.v), Western Copper (WRN.to)
(WRN).
Producer Basket: Overview, Hecla (HL).
The TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Nine Mile Metals (NINE.cse).
Regional Politics: Argentina: Milei President, Ecuador strikes down the Lasso mining decree,
Regional repercussions to the Milei victory.
Market Watching: American Eagle (AE.v) redux.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
In Today’s Edition
 Today’s main event is a look at Argonaut Gold (AR.to) as there may now be a trade in
the offing.
 The other Big Thing from this weekend is the victory of Javier Milei in Argentina’s
Presidential election, one I managed to call badly. We consider what it the new
scenario means in Regional Politics.
 Today’s edition is a little on the thin side, due mostly to life getting in the way of work
at this end of the pipe.
No big intro today
We’ve all come down with head colds and that’s been a personal energy sap, but the bigger
time and sleep sap is when a 20 month old has one over a 48 hour period. Some editions are
longer than others, this one is an “other” and I’ll save the thoughts on gold in a newly benign
inflationary scenario until next weekend. Nothing particularly time-sensitive, anyway.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Argonaut Gold (AR.to) (ARNGF) and an impending trade set-up
This desk has some history, or form in the British vernacular, with Argonaut Gold (AR.to)
(ARNGF). This mid-sized gold producer with operations in The USA and Mexico, as well as its
main asset and new flagship Magino mine in Canada now in commercial production, was a long
position in 2021 on the back of the developing Magino and its promise. That trade failed and
1

once closed down, we continued to track the company’s (non) progress mainly on the open
blog, watching from the sidelines as one disaster after another beset the company and hit its
remaining shareholders in the back pocket. So, it’s fair to say that for the last two years I’ve
been a vocal critic of AR.to and what’s more, that’s been the right position to take. However, it
may now be time to consider the stock as a live trade option and today’s fundies note exists
due to that.
 A potted history
 Magino’s cost overrun
 Recent production and our 4q23 expectations
 Financial overview
 Putting it all together
If you don’t want to read all those and want the TL:DR, Argonaut Gold (AR.to) is going on The
IKN Weekly Stocks to Follow as from next weekend and a Watch List stock. There may well bea
trade here, depending on how things turn out but before diving in, it’s probably best to watch
and wait to fit a couple of extra pieces into the jigsaw puzzle. For the rest of you who like
details, here we go.
A potted history: We start today by putting the company’s recent history and stock price into
context via three price charts. This first chart shows the three year development and in the red
box, the time during which I last owned AR.to. That period came to an end in December 2021
when the company announced serious cost and time overruns at Magino. More on that later,
but long story short I bought in June 2021 at C$2.95, then sold in December of the same year
at C$2.15. You may note that inside the red square there was a time when the trade was going
well, but then came the big sell-off and I dumped at a loss. Good job too, because it wasn’t
long before the real damage was done to the share price and by mid-2022, it became a stock
bouncing around the 50c price line.
More on the Magino mess in a moment, first we consider the price action for this year to date
via this second straightforward price chart:
2

AR has bumped around for most of the year in a range of between 55c and 70c Canadian,
except for a weak moment in late February/early March and most recently and it’s the action of
the last few weeks that’s most important to us today, so here’s our third and final price chart
and for this, we switch providers to barchart dot com for two months of 30 minute intervals:
I’ve added three numbers to the chart at the three moments AR has suffered price drops since
September:
1) AR dropped from the 60s back into the 50c along with the rest of the sector as PM
stocks came under pressure during September. No fault of the company
2) AR announced the start of commercial production on November 2nd (1) and while doing
so, also announced it had sold a further 1% NSR on its Magino production to backers
Franco-Nevada for U$29.5m, taking the FNV NSR to 3%. Though the announcement of
Commercial Production is clearly positive, it came later than expect and the sale of the
NSR implied a tight financial situation at the company
3) On November 14th AR filed its 3q23 financials (2) and the market reacted negatively to
what it saw in the numbers and heard from the company.
Which brings us to today and while the above chart checks at 40c, this weekend AR.to is priced
at C$0.395, implying a market cap of C$339.83m (approx U$248m). That’s a long way from its
previous market cap levels when I last held the stock and on revisiting IKN656 and my sale
decision at the time, it was interesting to note that even while deciding to sell, I’d pencilled in a
theoretical market cap target around C$1.25Bn if (and only if) it could deliver on its new target
and timeline as stated in late December. That would imply a price of C$1.45 today and as we’re
nowhere near that price, it begs the question as to why.
Magino’s cost overrun: One of the main reasons for the current low share price at AR is
what’s happened at Magino over the last two years. For context, or if you’re just into opening
up old wounds, please see IKN656 dated December 19th 2021 and the main fundies note that
weekend, the prosaically entitled “Selling Argonaut Gold (AR.to)”. That edition goes into detail
on the bucket of iced-cold water that AR dumped on its shareholders at the time and we’re not
doing it all, but long story short even though we’d already assumed a capex overrun on Magino,
the news that week was of a company that was an extra C$200m (Canadian, please note) to
the capex estimates of its flagship project and price driver, while also pushing out the timeline
to commercial production to the second half of 2023.
Magino Asset value (USD)
year total asset (U$m)
2018 241.433
2019 260.858
2020 307.522
2021 626.251
2022 938.006
3q23 1171.143
FY23 est U$1,202
source: AR filings, IKN est for 4q23
3

Here’s part of how AR put it in its NR at the time (3):
“...the updated Magino EAC is approximately $800 million. It is forecasted that through
December 31, 2021, approximately $342 million will have been invested into the
Project, leaving approximately $459 million remaining to be invested to complete the
Project.”
That was enough to get us out, even though we thought at the time that if they managed to
execute on the new plan our C$2.15 shares would have been a near-double (it was long before
the share count was diluted to Lake Superior levels). We also know with the benefit of hindsight
that since end 2021, thanks to the capex spend data as supplied in quarterlies and annuals,
that AR has ploughed another U$575.75m into Magino but please note the “U” there, rather
than a “C”, as AR REPORTS IN US DOLLARS and means things are much worse than first meet
the eye. At the time of the December 2021 capex overrun announcement, CAD/USD forex stood
at 0.78/1 which means that by the time 2023 is done (we were told on November 14th that AR
has put another $31m into the project since end 3q23), AR will have spent an extra C$740m.
It’s worth reflecting on those numbers:
 Originally, way back when green-lighting and raising capex financing on the back of its
feasibility study, AR promised a Magino build-out for C$510m, total-total.
 In mid-2021 when this desk bought in, we knew the bill would go over that but
forecasts of C$600m was still in the realms of manageable.
 In December 2021 AR said it would cost C$800m. We bailed.
 And now in late 2023, with the build all-but complete and commercial production
declared, if we calculate in December 2021 Loonies the reality of the capex total is
C$1,234.1m
Or put another way, that “…approximately $459 million remaining to be invested…” turned into
C$740m, or an extra C$281m since the admission of its capex issues, the resignation of its
team and this desk’s decision to dump its shares. While not quite “mid-boggling” numbers, due
to the extra delays as well as the well-documented input cost inflation pulse that’s worked
through the mining sector over the last two years, it’s another C$280m that AR and its
shareholders will never get back. Also and significantly, while AR was eventually forthcoming
about its capex blowout in late 2021 and then in 2022 when it made some “final” adjustments
to the expected bill, the company has done its darndest this year to hide the way Magino capex
has continued to run higher than expected. Again and to labour the point, please note:
 Early 2021: C$510m
 Late 2021: C$800m
 Reality: Over 50% higher than that
That’s one reason AR isn’t about to reach anywhere close to its prices its shares traded at
previously, here’s another reason:
1000 AR.to: Shares Out
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
4
31q1 31q2 31q3 31q4 41q1 41q2 41q3 41q4 51q1 51q2 51q3 51q4 61q1 61q2 61q3 61q4 71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 32q4
source: company filings/IKN ests
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snoillim
It may be a little cruel to current holders to offer up the shares outstanding data for the last
decade, but the long view shows just how much AR has added to the count in relative and
absolute terms while struggling to get Magino across the finishing line. It took AR seven years
to get from 149m shares out to 180.7m but since 2q20, the count has exploded to the current
864.502m S/O. This next chart shows the most recent quarters and the big jump in the share

count in 3q23, when AR.to closed a financing for C$195.3m gross proceeds by selling 434m
shares at 45c apiece (that also came with two
debt finance facilities for U$250m total). Things
didn’t stop there though, because AR went on to
raise another $17.25m and $17.5m in two more
share sales. Most recently and as seen above, AR
sold another 1% NSR to FNV for U$29.5m and as
we read in the 3q23 financials, it needed to in
order to cover the minimum liquidity
requirements of its debt book covenant.
It’s not all bad at AR with its share structure, as a
insto called GMT Capital Corp holds around 34%
of shares out and is clearly in for the long haul.
That size of position means AR isn’t about to get lowball bought and the fund, out of Atlanta GA
USA, is experienced in the mining sector with holdings in companies such as B2gold and Ero
Copper and reported AUM of around U$2.6Bn. However, it’s also worth considering that a fund
such as GMT will want its late-term pound of flesh before any run up in the share price in the
same way that FNV just benefited by adding an extra percentage point to its NSR.
Recent production and our 4q23 expectations: If the day comes when we pull the trigger
on AR we’ll go into its financial position in more depth, today we cover the need-to-know
matters and the first one is recent production numbers. AR reported a reasonable Q3 under the
circumstances, as they’d previously signalled the delay to Magino and how that wouldn’t make
its original guidance.
AR.to: GEO sales, per qtr
5
45411
00003 3000 4111
1595514132136261100893189863136021261410473110661356911463
6433 11421 73585502
77941 92712 52541 19151 94371 28181 43502 64091 19861 64781 53191 18031 80481 08121 02531 72301
00001
7000
12702 18324
14234
13759 14538
14153 1574916256 1352113799
7634
10782 7224 8796 52005820 18151
8799
05511
03921
45931
99151 52621 15301 31041
55511
29041
24321
41781
55412
7762
00002
80000
75000
70000
65000
60000
55000
50000 45000
40000
35000
30000 25000 20000 15000
10000
5000
0
91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
source: company filings
zo
OEG
AR.to: Shares Out
Florida Canyon
La Colorada
San Augustin
El Castillo
Magino
The total of nearly 54,571 oz sold (at AR, production and sales are always very close to each
other, so we’re going with sales data only) was reasonable under the circumstances, with
Magino selling 11,454 oz. Florida Canyon has stepped up at the right time and sold 21,455
GEOs (Gold Equivalent Ounces), a better result that comes after a period of capital investment
and works.
As for Q4, with the company affirming its production guidance for the year and Magino now in
commercial production, we estimate a total of 70,000 oz for 4q23, the type of number that will
attract plaudits from the market and particularly if AR then guides 1q24 and the first full
commercial production quarter from Magino at 40koz or beyond (perfectly feasible). We
guesstimate Florida Canyon producing 20k oz, San Augustin at 10,000 oz, the tired El Castillo at
3,000 oz and La Colorada at 7,000 oz. Those would put AR on track for its current guidance and
add a reasonable Q4 from Magino, again given its circumstances and late arrival at Commercial
Production levels.
Financial overview: With sales improving thanks to the arrival of Magino ounces and the
prospect of 4q23 being a five year record, the operations side of AR is improving but that’s yet
05.971 92.081 17.081
27.092 67.492 00.013 46.013 91.113 91.113 37.223 58.233 58.667 81.838 48.838 64.468 05.468 049
1100
1000
900
800
700 600
500
400
300
200
100
0
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
source: company filings/IKN ests
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to translate into meaningful profits. In 3q23 revenues of U$104.801m were okay, but costs rose
to U$77,201 and after DD&A, gross profit came to U$17.121m.
$m AR.to: Operations overview revenues
160 prod costs
dd&a/inventory adjust
140 gross profit
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
Source: company filings
-40
1q21 2q21 3q21 4q21 1q22 2q22 3q22 4q22 1q23 2q23 3q23 4q23est
Operating earnings cam in at U$12.452m and when shown on a per-share basis, that’s thin
gruel. As for our 4q23 forecasts, we go with top line revenues of U$137m as Magino sales ramp
up, costs jumping to U$86m as said mine goes commercial, DD&A at U$17m, gross profit of
U$34m and operating profit of U$28m. That’s around 3.2c/share for the current 4q23 and an
improvement, but still not the type of financial result to support a sharp share price rally.
AR.to: operating earnings per share
6
590.0 370.0 611.0 870.0 920.0
050.0 540.0 100.0 630.0- 100.0
210.0 410.0 230.0
0.14
0.12
0.10
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0.00
-0.02
-0.04
-0.06
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
$
source: AR filings, IKN calcs
Particularly when one considers its balance sheet issues. The overview charts for assets and
liabilities are a reasonable visual indication of how AR has delivered on its build-out (and
improved the Florida Canyon fixed asset) at the cost of current assets (i.e. cash), but the
liabilities have stacked up in the meantime and they very much include straight debt (and the
NSR offsets).
AR.to: Assets
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
But it’s when we look at cash that the issues show best, as even with the U$29.5m injection
from FNV and projected cash flows from operations, we forecast working capital to remain
negative at the end of this year, as long as AR doesn’t finance any further.
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
U$m AR.to: Liabilities breakdown per qtr
650
fixed 600 other current 550
cash 500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
source: company filings
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
U$m
LT liab
current liab
source: company filings

AR.to: Cash treasury per qtr
250
225
200
175
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
Due to this, there’s a reasonable likelihood that AR hits the button and runs another equity
financing at some point. Indeed, backers such as GMT may even encourage a strategy, as it
would allow them the “last fill” of cheap shares before the company starts putting in the
financial performance they expect from their investment.
Putting it all together: It’s an interesting moment for Argonaut Gold (AR.to), as its difficult
and somewhat delicate financial position has obviously weighed heavily on the stock price in
recent weeks, even as its key Magino mine ramps up. What’s clear to this desk is that if AR
delivers on the project in correct style from here, there’s an obvious trade and the right entry
point could result in a quick double, as long as market conditions suit. However the trade is also
fraught with risk, not least because we’re talking about a company that’s done an awful job in
delivering Magino and in recent times, has done its best to cover up continued and extra capex
overruns. You cannot just blindly trust a management team to deliver Magino in smooth and
seamless style from today, execution risk is obvious. So there are pros and cons to a trade.
Pros include:
1) The share price is cheap and if Argonaut can get Magino up, running and in solid
positive cash flow territory, the rally is a near-guarantee.
2) Magino may be late and it’s capex blowout painful, but it’s now in commercial
production and Q4 will be its first real quarter.
3) With the benefit of an improving Florida Canyon, we expect AR to post good production
numbers for the current quarter.
4) It has plenty of backers and as long as it can get over the near-term glitches and
financial weakness, Magino promises to be a good, profitable long-life mine ina top
jurisdiction. Costs are now embedded and AR can start looking to the asset to provide
financial returns.
Cons include:
1) The balance sheet is fragile, cash is tight. The recent sale of a 1% NSR will help
alleviate things, but working capital was negative and will likely remain so at end 4q23,
there’s no way around the potential liquidity issues.
2) With over 860m shares out already, AR has diluted its long-term holders bigtime and
we may see further equity raising.
3) Cash costs may not drop to the levels promised by a fully functioning Magino
immediately. As such, cash flow from its operations is not going to cover the gaps for at
least a couple of quarters.
4) AR has had a torrid time of it and the recent selling has only exacerbated that. There’s
a high chance of it becoming a victim of what promises to be a Canadian Tax Loss
Selling season to remember.
Therefore and putting it all together, the best course of action is to add Argonaut Gold (AR.to)
to the Watch List as from next weekend and keep a close eye on its development. In a perfect
world, we’ll get a window to go long at some time between:
7
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
source: company filings
srallod
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AR.to: Working Capital per qtr
300
275
250
225
200
175
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
-25
-50
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
U$m
source company filings

 An equity financing and the end of the year
 Or after tax-loss selling and before AR announces its Q4 production numbers
 Or in the New Year, between the time that its production is known and before
the long wait for the 4q23 and Year End financials
 Or a different combination and order of those moving parts
It’s going to be a case of watching to see how the cards are dealt. Today is not the right day to
buy shares as there’s a strong possibility that a new equity placement or Tax Loss Selling drives
the stock even lower. However, if AR gets to the end of the year and those risks abate
somewhat, the window for a fast trade and a quick win may be open. What I wouldn’t want to
do is hold this stock through Q4 earnings because no matter how good sales turn out to be,
actual quarterly earnings aren’t going to sparkle until Magino is fully wound up and that’s more
likely 2q24 and beyond.
The bottom line: For the time being Equinox (EQX) strikes this desk as a smarter way to play
gold leverage. Until we know more about its financial situation, AR has plenty of hidden risk and
the tax loss cloud looms large, but given the right price there could be a lucrative trade in a few
weeks’ time, particularly if the company can talk up a Q4 of 70k oz production with more
improvements expected in 2024. High risk with a high reward potentials, this is going on the
Watch List as from next week and we’ll be watching for a moment when the risk drops to
acceptable levels.
Stocks to Follow
A better week for the portfolio and not before time. The good times were driven by the rally in
metals prices and for once, the bullishness made its way through the large caps (see Producer
Basket) and into the juniors be they gold, copper or any of the associated precious or base
metals. Four of our 16 covered stocks were losers on the week (RIO.v, ALDE.v, MARI.to,
ERO.to) and I only own shares in two of them, which suits me fine. Three others were
unchanged (MIRL.cse, SURG.v, MENE.v) and that leaves nine winners so not listing them all,
instead a cheer or two for the biggest moves in Fortuna Silver (FSM up 19.1%), Top Pick
Minera Alamos (MAI.v up 13.0%...phew at last) and Contango ORE (CTGO up 9.6%).
We currently have 16 open positions on the list, four below our self-imposed maximum. I own
12 of the names, four are Watch List. Six are in the green, ten are in the red.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.305 45.2% $0.75 first tgt, #1 idea
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Amerigo Res ARG.to may sell C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.24 -8.8% may raise cash in Cu downturn
SolGold SOLG.to BUY C$0.265 19-Feb-23 C$0.155 -41.5% Cu in Ecuador, M&A tgt
Equinox Gold EQX STR BUY U$4.46 30-May-23 U$4.70 5.4% Au leverage trade, good Q3
Fortuna Silver FSM BUY U$2.92 13-Aug-23 U$3.56 21.9% Finally moved, still want flip
Contango Ore CTGO BUY U$18.70 30-Jul-23 U$20.64 10.4% Au dev play, production FY24
Newcore Gold NCAU.v SPEC BUY C$0.205 23-Oct-22 C$0.135 -34.1% Showing signs of life
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v BUY C$0.83 22-Apr-18 C$0.165 -80.1% Cheap on permit probs, appeal
SPECULATIVE TRADES
Western Explor. WEX.v SPEC BUY C$1.87 9-Apr-23 C$0.67 -64.2% Continues to drop, needs news
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v SPEC BUY C$0.72 16-May-21 C$0.79 9.7% drilling again
Minera IRL MIRL.cse avoid C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.01 -92.3% run into ground byCEO, AVOID
8

A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
Marimaca Copper MARI.to WATCH C$3.65 26-May-23 C$3.30 -9.6% Likely buy, cheap entry shows
Surge Copper SURG.v WATCH C$0.11 18-Jun-23 C$0.075 -31.8% tinycap Cu in BC Canada
Provenance Gold PAU.cse WATCH C$0.085 8-Oct-23 C$0.10 17.6% Idaho gold drill play
Ero Copper ERO.to WATCH C$18.94 22-Oct-23 C$15.98 -15.6% Hi-quality Cu prod, now cheap
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.63 6-Dec-20 C$0.29 -54.0% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2023 date closed close price
Altiplano Metals APN.v jan'23 C$0.31 17-Sep-21 C$0.17 -45.2% delayed and will dilute soon
Western Copper WRN.to mar'23 C$2.02 13-Nov-22 C$2.32 14.9% sold on reduced M&A prob.
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v may'23 C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$1.75 -43.0% Closing on legal action news
Amerigo Res ARG.to may'23 C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.48 8.8% sold 20% to raise cash
Amerigo Res ARG.to oct'23 C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.21 -11.0% sold 10% raise to cash
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v oct'23 C$0.265 25-Apr-21 C$0.12 -54.7% sold raise to cash
Faraday Copper FDY.to oct'23 C$0.79 26-Mar-23 C$0.68 -11.4% sold raise to cash
AbraSilver Res. ABRA.v oct'23 C$0.36 4-Dec-22 C$0.28 -22.2% sold raise to cash
Orecap inv OCI.v oct'23 C$0.04 20-Nov-22 C$0.03 -25.0% sold raise to cash
2015 to 2022 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on some of our covered companies, starting with notes on four of the covered
copper companies.
Amerigo Resources (ARG.to): The rally in spot copper has taken the pressure off this stock
and allows me to defer any decision on whether to liquidate in the near-term…I’m very happy
to report. It’s still officially under review but it’s now going to be a much easier hold into the
November 30th ownership date for the dividend (to be paid December 20th). Up 2c on the week
and a solid trader.
Marimaca Copper (MARI.to): Almost-but-not-quite the 2023 low for MARI last week, with
only its January range lower. Volume has dropped
off, too. This stock didn’t look like a candidate for
Tax Loss Selling until very recently, but it’s now in
the range where the vicious circle may begin and
take it lower from now until Christmas. MARI’s
problem at this stage in its development is one of
the classic issues facing advanced-stage explorecos,
that of retaining interest as it does the serious work
to bring its project to bankable FS stage. It tends to
be costly and without many catalysts for market
interest.
As with Amerigo (above) and Ero (below), this is a
true quality copper play and the prices now
appearing offer plenty of value. On the Watch List because it stands apart from most copper
explorecos, advanced with a clear path to economically robust operations.
Ero Copper (ERO.to) (ERO): Last week it was $!6.18 and among other things. I wrote that
ERO concerns me due to the nearer-term for the copper price and thoughts of Tax Loss Selling
season as well. The closure last week of U$111m of the potential maximum U$120m including
over-allotment is good news, as is the mini-rally in copper prices. That leaves the financing
hangover and then the potential of Tax Loss selling headwinds so the “great price for ERO
shares but it may get better” is still in-play. Indeed, the share price dropped 20c on the week.
Most importantly, those of you looking to set it and forget it and lock in value are still getting it
here.
9

SolGold (SOLG.to) (SOLG.L): The 4th of 4 is the most disappointing of the lot and a personal
bagholder position that is weighing on the portfolio. I own and track SolGold (SOLG.to) via its
Canadian listing, but more germane for our purposes this weekend is the chart of its main
London listing as the stock showed a pulse on some significant corporate news (4):
Two SolGold Directors, Mr. Liam Twigger and Mr. James Clare, have notified the Board that they
will not seek re-election as Directors of the Company at the forthcoming Annual General Meeting
of the Company ("AGM") to be held in December 2023.
That James Clare is leaving is of lesser importance,
but Liam Twigger’s decision to step down as Chair is
a tacit admission of failure in the plan brought by
“Team Mather” to find a quick buyer. It also brings
into question the tenure of CEO Caldwell and we may
be about to go through another round of corporate
politicking and light skulduggery at the company. It
was, however, slightly ironic that in last week’s NR
and in very next sentence after stating that Twigger
and Clare were stepping down, they were called “an
invaluable part of SolGold.” The person who wrote
that NR needs to buy a dictionary. The red line marks
the spot on the SOLG 10-day chart but this stock
being the way it is, the news was almost certainly telegraphed and the news-driven rally baked
in before the NR was published. Holding and unhappy, but willing to give this soap-opera until
the end of the year before making any proactive hold/sell decision. I think.
Contango ORE (CTGO): The rally continues, CTGO
is now handily over U$20 and regularly trading
between U$800k and U$1m per day on its main US
listing…not many developer plays can boast that
amount of cash running through them. The small
scare from that lawsuit on road transport has faded
away and the market now sees the value in holding
CTGO…it’s a bit like buying the profitable end of
Kinross from here. More, please.
Fortuna Silver (FSM) (FVI.to): That’s what it was supposed to do.
In the main fundies note “Fortuna Silver (FSM) (FVI.to) rallies nicely” last week we posited FSM
as a sleeper on its strong Q3 results and Q4 guidance, a stock price that was only missing one
ingredient for the rally. Your narcissist author quotes himself:
“All this needs is a gold rally and it’ll be back at U$4, then the next stop would be 1.0X
10

Price/Book, which would imply a 50% upside to this weekend. There’s every reason to
expect FSM shares to get there, as long as the gold price provides a tailwind instead of
a headwind.”
The gold rally arrived, off FSM ran and with momentum now on its side, as long as gold plays
along we can expect that 4-handle to come soon, perhaps even this week. We also note that on
November 17th BMO re-opened coverage on Fortuna with a C$5.50 price target on the Canadian
stock, representing a 13.2% upside to this weekend on the FVI ticker. It wouldn’t take much
more on that to get to the upside I’d like to see to take profits on this trade and it’s a good
time to remind readers that even though FSM may have a much brighter future now, this desk’s
trade was always about making a near or mid-term difference, then taking the money and
running. If you have longer-term plans for FSM in your own portfolio you won’t hear a word of
complaint from me, but I’m sticking to my own plan here and given the right price, I sell.
Something above U$4.15 would get the trigger finger itchy, then comes the aforementioned
U$4.50 that would be very difficult to resist any further.
Equinox Gold (EQX) (EQX.to): Also on the comparative chart above is EQX, which traded
lockstep with the GDX over the ten days as seen. That makes EQX a laggard in my estimation,
as it’s the stock that should provide beta to the gold price between U$1,900/oz and
U$2,000/oz, due to its higher than average cash cost profile. If gold continues to rally, this is
one to consider as a fliptrade.
Minera Alamos (MAI.v): One of the companies that got the comment “Babies and
bathwater” last week and I’m happy to say, the baby was rescued from the sluices. Up a useful
10.8% on the week, MAI found volume and interest in the run-up to its 3q23 financials filing.
That may come in the week ahead, but as MAI.v has a tendency to leave it to the last minute
and this time the last minute is the 29th, we may have to wait another week.
The Copper Basket
After forty-six weeks of 2023, The Copper Basket shows a loss of 23.13% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Solaris Res SLS.to 6.44 148.15 767.42 5.18 -19.6%
2 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.22 92.882 306.51 3.30 2.5%
3 Western Copper WRN.to 2.41 151.597 263.78 1.74 -27.8%
4 Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to 1.92 105.96 151.52 1.43 -25.5%
5 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.78 169.819 134.16 0.79 1.3%
6 Hot Chili HCH.v 0.78 119.455 115.87 0.97 24.4%
7 Faraday Copper FDY.to 0.54 175.2 103.37 0.59 9.3%
8 Regulus Res. REG.v 1.10 124.509 85.91 0.69 -37.3%
9 Oroco Res OCO.v 0.91 216.13 82.13 0.38 -58.2%
10 Pan Global Res PGZ.v 0.46 242.74 44.91 0.185 -59.8%
11 Kodiak Copper KDK.v 1.12 56.2 32.60 0.58 -48.2%
12 QC Copper QCCU.v 0.165 162.815 18.72 0.115 -30.3%
13 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.16 106.25 12.75 0.12 -25.0%
14 Atacama Copper ACOP.v 0.16 35.94 7.55 0.21 31.3%
15 Libero Copper LBC.v 0.155 119.58 2.99 0.025 -83.9%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg -23.13%
We may have finally found a bottom in the junior The Copper Basket 2023, weekly evolution
15%
copper sub-sector, though we’ll see what happens 10%
when Canadian Tax Loss Selling shows its claws. 5%
It didn’t move by more than a couple of tenths, 0%
-5%
but last week’s move in the basket average to -
-10%
23.13% was the first week-over-week -15%
11 -20%
-25%
-30%
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2yluj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6gua ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3pes ht01 ht71 ht42 ts1tco ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5von ht21 ht91
source: IKN calcs

improvement since September and came on the back of a mixed basket of five winners (SLS.to,
WRN.to, ASCU.to, PGZ.v, FDY.to), four unchanged stocks (QCCU.v, ECU.v, LBC.v, ACOP.v) and
six losers (MARI.to, OCO.v, ALDE.v, HCH.v, REG.v, KDK.v). There were no double figure
percentage moves in either direction and the week was relatively calm, with the biggest upper
Faraday (FDY.to up 7.3%) and the biggest
down once again the Piñata Del Mes Oroco
Resource Corp (OCO.v down 8.4%).
What’s notable in the above list is that most of
the “Dot Tee Oh” on the TSX big board were
winners and they moved as copper rallied into
Friday. That suggests we may see more
upside in the TSXV listed stocks in the days
ahead, as long as copper holds onto its gains
of course. This is probably the last time we
feature the Comex December’23 contract for
our futures chart, as First Notice is now only
eleven trading days away and open interest is
beginning to shift over to the March’24
contract. Expect us to do the same next weekend. However the visual is constructive for a
change and we’re a way from the sub-U$3.60/lb numbers that had me putting Amerigo
(ARG.to) a warning, just three weekends ago.
As for macro copper news, all eyes were on Shanghai and Asia Copper Week and we have two
carefully chosen and lovingly curated stories from the big conference for your consideration.
While the headlines made in this report (5) aren’t earth-shattering or any great surprise to
sector observers, it’s worthy of comment due to the speaker:
SHANGHAI, Nov 15 (Reuters) - The global copper market will be short of copper
concentrate by 2025, said a top Chinese copper executive on Wednesday, as mining
output fails to keep up with the expansion in smelting capacity in Asia.
Rising smelting capacity expansions and slower mining output growth will push the
market to a "tight balance" next year, before entering a deficit in the following two
years, said Chen Yunian, vice president at Jiangxi Copper, China's biggest copper
producer, at the CRU World Copper Conference Asia.
That’s the same Jiangxi making inroads on South American and African copper projects, as well
as the recent buyer of First Quantum shares. Getting its head honcho on the record to support
the widely-held thesis of the impending supply bottleneck is a fillip to the bull case and helped
the rally in copper last week.
The other main story is reports of the first deal between a large concentrate producer and a
large Asian smelter company on TC/RCs for
2024 (see preview last week in IKN756).
There will be more deals to come, but
getting Antofagasta and China’s Jinchuan
Group to agree on U$80 per ton and 8c/lb is
a benchmark for others. The 8c/lb
refinement number is the same as 2023, but
the Treatment Cost of U$80/tonne is $8/mt
lower than this year and suggests smelters
are going to have to fight for conc,
particularly in the second half of 2024. This
chart from the same Bloomie report (6)
shows that the $80/mt number is the first
drop since 2021 (if confirmed).
We arrive at our regular weekly check on world copper inventories, data from Cochilco:
12

 The “somewhat bullish but nothing special” inventories backdrop continued into this
week, with the aggregate of the three world systems down 2,713 metric tonnes (mt) to
close the week at 230,641mt.
 The lowest ever reading at the Shanghai SHFE in the modern period is just over
29,000mt at the start of 2022, we’re getting close to that. Stocks dropped another
3,820mt to 31,026mt and the scraping sound you hear is the bottom of the barrel.
Theoretically and as noted last week, the next four weeks represent a potential squeeze
moment for copper stocks on the Asia mainland as manufacturers do their normal thing
and move to secure factory supply before the year closes out.
 The LME added a small 1,275mt to its total to close Friday at 181,275mt but once
again, the shift in stocks toward New Orleans/USA and away from the liquid markets of
Asia (and Europe) was evident. Impressively, New Orleans warehouses now hold
94,775mt of the copper under LME roof, over half the total.
 Comex stocks dropped by 169mt to close the week at 18,340mt. No biggie.
The dedicated SHFE chart shows that low level of stocks, now clearly lower than this time last
year but tracking the Q4 2021 line closely.
SHFE copper inventory levels, 2018 to 2023
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
13
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
MT Cu 2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
source: Cochilco data
Now for notes on a couple of basket stocks:
Regulus Resources (REG.v): This chart is an issue:
REG is a thinly-traded stock even at the best of times and these are not the best of times. With
Tax Loss season now opening up and a distinct lack of news coming from the company since it
wrapped up its drilling to secure 70% of Colquirrumi, the pattern shown here of volume only on
downticks does not augur well for the next month or so.
Western Copper (WRN.to) (WRN): Another chart showing near-term issues is WRN and the
Basket’s small week-over-week win only happened because somebody, somewhere decided to
paint the WRN tape into the Friday close. And while that little flurry of purchases on Friday
afternoon to bring Canadian trading to 100k on the day looks a lot, it’s only that compared to

the previous days as seen; WRN did a lot more daily
volume at this time last year.
We remind readers that the rights held by Strategic
Investor Rio Tinto (RTZ) on the board, its share
standstill position and its input into executive planning
at WRN lapse on November 28th, i.e. in two Tuesdays’
time. The way WRN has been trading, it would seem
RTZ is about to let its rights lapse and not take a
deeper role in the company. We shall see.
The Producer Basket
After 46 weeks of 2023, the Producer Basket shows a gain of 3.38% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 47.20 1152.6 41.90 36.35 -23.0%
2 Barrick GOLD 17.18 1761.54 27.67 15.71 -8.6%
3 Agnico Eagle AEM 51.99 488.9 23.65 48.38 -6.9%
4 Wheaton PM WPM 39.08 451.963 20.67 45.73 17.0%
5 Kinross Gold KGC 4.09 1256.1 6.68 5.32 30.1%
6 Alamos Gold AGI 10.11 393.1 5.04 12.83 26.9%
7 B2Gold BTG 3.57 1074.567 3.26 3.03 -15.1%
8 Hecla Mining GFI 5.56 610.491 2.83 4.64 -16.5%
9 Eldorado Gold EGO 8.36 185.73 2.07 11.14 33.3%
10 Wesdome Gold WDOFF 5.53 147.526 0.79 5.35 -3.3%
All prices and stock quotes in U$ Port. avg 3.38%
The rebound was a welcome sight and chewed away some of the losses from the previous
week, but we’re still lower than we were two weekends ago. All ten of our basket components
were winners on the week and that’s good, but there was a wide range of results from the
small improvements in Alamos (AGI up 0.3%) and B2Gold (BTG up 0.7%) to the chunkier
moves in Wheaton (WPM up 6.5%) Newmont on the rebound from that rout of the week
before (NEM up 6.3%), but the big prize without a doubt goes to Hecla (HL up 22.4%), which
bounced back in very impressive style as silver ran to over u$24/oz and gave this silver-biased
PM player plenty of leverage. All the same, it now looks overbought.
That HL move helped us pull further ahead against the GDX benchmark on the year, we now
have a lead of 4.18% and that’s the best position in all 2023. A good time to put in a spurt.
The 2023 Producer Basket: Percentage difference
between GDX benchmark & basket (negative = IKN ahead)
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
-4.0%
-5.0%
Hecla (HL): Let’s review our noted from last weekend:
“The reaction was negative at the bell Tuesday but, as seen in this ten-day
14
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2yluj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6gua ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3pes ht01 ht71 ht42 ts1tco ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5von ht21 ht91
The 2023 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
comparative to GDX control
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
source: IKN calcs, NYSE data -10%
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2yluj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6gua ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3pes ht01 ht71 ht42 ts1tco ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5von ht21 ht91
ikn
gdx control
source: NYSE, IKN calcs

comparative to GDX, the comparative weakness to the field only showed up
when the market reacted to Jay Powell’s presser on Thursday afternoon. But
at that point there was zero interest in holding HL and it went South more
quickly than the average name, eventually posting an even worse week than
the banner piñata Newmont (NEM). With silver looking weak and Lucky Friday
best described as anything but that at the moment, there’s no real reason to
own this stock above other PM companies.”
In one word, wrong. Not only did the market decide it had been too harsh to HL after all, but
the timing with the silver spike suddenly made it a preferred vehicle to play the leverage trade.
This chart shows HL compared to GDX and also the silver producers’ ETF (SIL). That Thursday
and Friday says “overbought” to me (and that’s not merely sour grapes for calling it so badly
last weekend…promise).
The TinyCaps List
After 46 weeks of 2023, the TinyCaps show a gain of 16.12% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Aurelius Min AUL.v 0.07 49.787 1.00 0.02 -71.4%
Coast Copper COCO.v 0.045 64.001 2.56 0.04 -11.1%
District Metals DMX.v 0.075 86.891 16.07 0.185 146.7%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.13 69.962 5.25 0.075 -42.3%
Manitou Gold MTU.v 0.02 344.568 18.95 0.055 175.0%
Nine Mile Metals NINE.cse 0.29 57.025 5.42 0.095 -67.2%
Palamina Corp PA.v 0.08 65.285 6.20 0.095 18.8%
Precipitate Gold PRG.v 0.075 130.367 7.82 0.06 -20.0%
South Star STS.v 0.55 40.129 30.90 0.77 40.0%
Viva Gold VAU.v 0.14 106.721 13.87 0.13 -7.1%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 16.12%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $20m. They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a
little and allowed sub-U$20m market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, but it was a particularly depressing exercise to trawl through the whole of the TSXV and find companies
that are small enough, but with life in them. The vast majority of sub-$20m stocks are broken stocks, either
traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2023. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
15

 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
A better week for the TinyCap list, but it’s all rather TinyCaps, 2023 weekly tracker
50%
moot at this point in the proceedings as there’s no 45%
real signal of any use coming from the smallest end 40%
35%
of the junior market this year. Roll on 2024. Anyway, 30%
we saw two losers on the week (COCO.v, PA.v), 25%
20%
three unchanged stocks (AUL.v, MTU.v, PRG.v) and 15%
the other five were winners and all the moves were 10%
5%
small, except for the zoom higher seen in Nine Mile 0%
Metals (NINE.cse up 58.3%). That’s a big pop and if
you were lucky enough to have bought just before
the move you’d be a happy camper this weekend,
but it’s also the way in these most speculative of stocks, part of the backdrop (or at least
should be).
Nine Mile Metals (NINE.cse): And that big rebound was fuelled by this news (7):
Nine Mile Metals Mobilizes California Lake VMS Drill Program and Introduces New
Targeting Technology, Bathurst Mining Camp, New Brunswick
With that, whoosh off she went:
Personally, when I see an exploreco touting “new technology” I tend to cringe but the price
move put in by this well-promoted exploreco showed me up as stupid. We should also point out
that this move isn’t on drill assay results or even one of those sneak preview core photo NRs
(that NINE used to pump its price back in 2022). For sure, it’s a highly embellished “we’re
starting to drill” NR but when push comes to shove,, that’s all it is, the announcement of the
start of drilling. Expect social media to sell the sizzle on this trade .
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future
I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
Argentina: Milei President
That was quite a week in Argentina. It’s worth a quick re-cap to sketch out how 2023 has
converted Javier Milei from Independent and Maverick outsider candidate to President-Elect of
Argentina:
 Early year, the controversial character continued his high-octane publicity campaign by
promoting pure-blood Libertarian policies and railing against “The Political Caste” in
Argentina, sparing no insult for establishment politicos to the left and right.
 He was considered a live outsider with possibilities until the PASO primaries in August,
when he won the outright vote with just under 30%.
16
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2yluj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6gua ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3pes ht01 ht71 ht42 ts1tco ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5von ht21 ht91
source: IKN calcs, TSX data

 He continued with his vehement rhetoric into the October First Round election, in which
he came second to a resurgent government candidate Sergio Massa. His total in the
election proper was considerably less than most expected and Massa beat him by six
points, but the two went into this weekend’s run-off.
 The day after the election, Milei went under the care and attention of Mauricio Macri,
the orthodox Right wing ex-President whose candidate Patricia Bullrich had under-
performed.
 Milei’s campaign suddenly became much less polemic. He put away his controversial
props (e.g. appearing with a chainsaw) and toned down the rhetoric in order to appeal
to the political centre.
 Up to and including last weekend and the live TV debate (see IKN756), he was still
behind in the polls and was thoroughly out-performed in the debate by the professional
politico Massa.
However, something changed during the week and the new “calmer” image projected by Milei,
now under Macri’s wing and under orders to become more “Presidentiable” (that word again)
was enough to bring the voters back. I don’t mind admitting surprise this weekend and in order
to frame that, here’s how last weekend’s note on the debate finished:
“As for Milei, he’s certainly not out of it but once again during this debate, he
came across as a person unsuited to the role of Head of State (and
personally, as noted previously, I think he’d be seriously bad news for the
country over the longer-term…but that’s just me). He has a 20% chance next
Sunday...”
In other words, somewhere between last weekend and this weekend, the vast majority of
undecided voters (on which the election depended, there were between 12% and 15% “don’t
knows” in play) opted for Milei over Massa. With the deciding group, they were clearly looking
for the “Least Worst” and Milei and his (new) team did enough to tip them to his side and away
from the “Devil They Knew” in the shape of the current government. There’s no other way of
explaining an election that went from Massa +6 points four weeks ago, to virtual neck-and-neck
one week ago, to the result this evening. With 99.28% of Fast Count votes in, Milei has 55.69%
of valid votes and Massa 44.30%, a gap of over eleven points. That’s a serious blowout victory
As for what all this means for Argentina, first and foremost let us once again stress the main
point for this publication and its focus on mining. Both run-off candidates offered a pro-mining
agenda and both would have been good for the sector and its rules, so the Milei win is positive
for mining. However, the mining companies looking to develop and/or operate in the country
will be happy with the result tonight, as it brings in a presidency that should (not will, be
should) be good for the macro policies FDI looks for when investing. A Milei presidency should
(not will) loosen capital controls, and remittances on profits, leading to freer trade and
attractive rates. As for forex, it’s up for debate as to what rate the country would need in order
to dollarize, but I’ve read through reasonable rationales that call for the Peso at 3,000 on the
day it makes the US Dollar the official currency. If you compare that to Friday’s close of 950 to
the Dollar on the semi-official “Dolar Blue” market, it gives an idea of the potential devaluation
in store and indeed, tonight the Dolar Blue is already trading at 1,150.
[sidebar: Argentina is about to become the destination of choice for dirt cheap Soutrhern
Hemisphere summer vacations, the season starts January 1st and if you’re considering it, take
physical U$100 and U$20 bills with you]
Also, though inflation in Peso terms will spike at the beginning his plans to dollarize (or more
likely “move toward dollarization”) should tame the country’s rampant inflation, currently
running at 143% annual. Dollar bonds should rally, the new admin will be in a position to get
more and credit from The IMF and Milei will probably enjoy a honeymoon period on a purely
political basis. In other words, there’s a trade here and alongside other vehicles such as
Argentina US denominated sovereign bonds, I expect mining stocks with Argentina exposure to
rally this coming week and those include miners listed abroad.
17

However, I’d strongly urge you to consider Argentina as a near-term trade. Milei will soon come
up against a Congress that will not bow to his most radical policy proposals (e.g. Dollarize, close
large swathes of the Public Sector, Close the Central Bank, etc) and at some point, this
outspoken and polemic character is going to see his mouth (in fact, his personality) getting him
into trouble. On a personal level I’m still rather anti-Milei, I don’t think he’s cut out for the job
he’s just been voted to do and while I welcome seeing Massa and the current government out
of office, consider Milei too much of a loose cannon to be a Head of State, the wrong person at
the right time. However, that’s just me and for the sake of a country I care about deeply, I
wish him the best of fortune.
Ecuador strikes down the Lasso mining decree
From the continent’s major basket case country, we shift focus to Mini Basket Case Ecuador and
the news from last Thursday, November 17th as the country’s Constitutional Court (CC) has
struck down the presidential decree signed into effect by outgoing President Lasso that
facilitated environmental and social permitting of mining projects. The so-called “Decree 754”
was found to be unconstitutional and will have to be replaced by new laws passed by the
incoming Congress. Interestingly, the JV of juniors working the Curipamba/El Domo project,
Adventus Mining (ADZN.v) and and Salazar Resources (SRL.v), were quick off the mark to
comment on the judgment in this NR out on Friday evening (8). But along with announcing that
the CC had ruled against the decree, ADZN/SRL also took an oddly positive stance and added
spin to the NR:
Notwithstanding, the ruling defers the effects of the unconstitutionality decision until
the Assembly passes an organic law to regulate the Consultation process. The ruling
also expressly revokes the temporary suspension of the Decree and indicates that the
Decree will remain in-effect until the Assembly passes a new law regulating the
Consultation.
This decision by the Court allows over 170 projects to resume their respective
Consultation processes by proceeding under the terms the Decree. These important
projects span across all industries and sectors in Ecuador, which include but are not
limited to hospitals, water treatment plants, roads, clean energy projects, and three
mining related projects, including the El Domo-Curipamba project. Therefore, the
Participants are pleased to continue the advancement of the El Domo-Curipamba
project in line with recent guidance.
Making this ruling sound pro-mining and a benefit for development projects in Ecuador is up for
debate. Plenty of debate. While technically true that Decree 754 will remain in effect until
superseded by a new organic law (they cannot leave a legal vacuum) and that the juniors can
“continue the advancement” in some ways or forms, the ruling also makes clear a few things
that the companies would rather you didn’t know (9), including the main one:
Environmental permits cannot be awarded and Prior Consultancy
hearings cannot be carried out.
Not until a new law is passed, that is. So ADZN/SRL may be able to get their teams back on the
ground and get on with necessary grassroots CSR, but there are no permits coming out of
Ecuador. Period. Expect mining projects in Ecuador requiring environmental permits and/or
social approval to drop on this news. That very much includes Curipamba/El Domo.
Regional repercussions to the Milei victory
This may be something of a Hot Take, but I think it’s worth expanding a little on the
significance of the Milei victory today:
1) It’s not merely the win, but the size. He shows that undecided/centre politic voters will move
away from the political Left if offered an alternative. Milei was very successful in his move to
the centre over the last four weeks and offers a blueprint for other countries. It also makes
Mauricio Macri the clear power behind the throne in Argentina, as both architect of Milei’s win
and also a major controller of Congress bloc votes
2) When considering “other countries”, uppermost in my mind is Chile. Gabriel Boric has seen
18

his government lose mandate power and popularity, now his main rival Antonio Kast has been
handed a major boost from the other side of the Andean Cordillera.
3) Add tonight’s result to the recent moves in other countries:
 Ecuador and Daniel Noboa’s win
 Peru’s hard shift to the right wing under Dina Boluarte
 Colombia’s municipal elections going against Gustavo Petro
 Paraguay’s Colorado right wing back in power
Then add in the shift away from Boric in Chile in recent times. It’s up to you to decide whether
Petro in Colombia or Lula da Silva in Brazil represents the apogee for South America’s left wing
(personally it’s Petro, as Lula won against an awful candidate in the shape of Jair Bolsonaro)
but there’s little doubt that the high water mark is now in and the region is now clearly
swinging back to the right. Tonight’s Milei victory is one thing, the way he swept the undecided
votes to his side is quite another.
Market Watching
American Eagle (AE.v) redux
No drill assays since last weekend and instead of
bouncing off the 18c line, it bounced on 19c
(though briefly traded at 18.5c on Tuesday
morning). The decent finish to the week did not
therefore surprise, but volume got rather thin in the
last two days and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see
trades under the 20c line again, NR or no NR.
Apart from that American Eagle (AE.v) comes with
the same message as last weekend; high risk drill
play that can bounce on the drill assay, same way
we’ve seen spikes on previous NRs.
Conclusion
IKN757 is done, we end with bullet points:
 Happy with the way Fortuna traded last week and looking for more in the days to
come. Given the right price, I will take profits.
 Now looking for Equinox (EQX) to step up and deliver the promised leverage.
 Milei’s win is set to change the complexion of South American politics, not merely
Argentina. But whatever happens, Argentine-exposed issues should see a decent rally
tomorrow as the Dolar Blue Peso drops like a stone.
 Off to bed now.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stock is Minera Alamos (MAI.v). Flash
updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best wishes, Mark
19

Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://www.argonautgold.com/files/doc_news/argonaut-gold-declares-commercial-production-final.pdf
(2) https://www.argonautgold.com/files/doc_financials/2023/q3/Q3-2023-Operating-and-Financial-results-1.pdf
(3) https://www.argonautgold.com/English/news-and-events/news-releases/news-release-details/2021/Argonaut-Gold-
Provides-Updated-Magino-Construction-Capital-Estimate-and-Announces-Leadership-Change/default.aspx
(4) https://www.benzinga.com/pressreleases/23/11/ac35846062/solgold-plc-announces-director-changes
(5) https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/asia-copper-week-copper-concentrate-market-to-face-concentration-shortage-by-
2025-jiangxi
(6) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-18/chinese-copper-smelter-agrees-to-first-drop-in-fees-in-3-
years?s=09#xj4y7vzkg
(7) https://ninemilemetals.com/nine-mile-metals-mobilizes-california-lake-vms-drill-program-and-introduces-new-
targeting-technology-bathurst-mining-camp-new-brunswick/
(8) https://www.adventusmining.com/news/122621
(9) https://twitter.com/CONAIE_Ecuador/status/1725881451139178797/photo/1
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2022
Closed in 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
Goldshore Res GSHR.v Nov'22 C$0.18 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 88.9% Quick profit taken
Palamina Corp PA.v Dec'22 C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.08 -72.9% Clear-out of underperformer
Pure Gold PGM.h Dec'22 C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.015 -89.3% tiny trade on vh risk, went Ch11
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Set-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
20

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
21

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
22

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
23