IKN #756Premium

The IKN Weekly
Week 756, November 12th 2023
Contents
This Week: In Today’s Edition, Second call for 2024 Basket Cases, The Fed Kabuki Theatre
and the Santa Rally.
Fundamental Analysis: Fortuna Silver (FSM) (FVI.to) 3q23 financials, Amerigo Resources
(ARG.to) 3q23 financials.
Stocks to Follow: Marimaca Copper (MARI.to), Ero Copper (ERO.to) (ERO), Minera Alamos
(MAI.v), Contango ORE (CTGO), Surge Copper (SURG.v), Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v), SolGold (SOLG.to)
(SOLG.L).
The Copper Basket: Overview, Pan Global Resources (PGZ.v), Faraday Copper (FDY.to),
Libero Copper (LBC.v), Western Copper (WRN.to) (WRN).
Producer Basket: Overview, Newmont (NEM), Hecla (HL), Wesdome (WDOFF) (WDO.to),
Kinross (KGC) (K.to) and Eldorado Gold (EGO) (ELD.to).
The TinyCaps Basket: Overview.
Regional Politics: Argentina: Tonight’s big debate and next Sunday’s big day, The Cobre
Panama protests: Get set for the long haul, Peru announces its stimulus.
Market Watching: Ero Copper (ERO.to) (ERO) runs a bought deal, SilverCrest Metals (SILV)
(SIL.to) 3q23 financials, American Eagle (AE.v), project consolidation and pending drill results.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
In Today’s Edition
 Today’s edition does lots of numbers, with companies large and small reporting their
Q3 earnings. The main fundies section focuses on the one that is shaping as a great
way to play any gold rebound, that’s Fortuna Silver (FSM) (FVI.to).
 But before the FSM note we catch up with the deferred analysis of Amerigo (ARG.to),
that should have made IKN755 last weekend. As things have turned out the drop in
spot copper we’ve seen since last weekend has brought a new angle to the story.
 The Producer Basket does more than normal and mostly covers disappointments, such
as the Newmont (NEM) price performance and the Hecla (HL) and Wesdome (WDO.to)
quarters. And other things.
 Market Watching covers the SilverCrest (SILV) quarter (which was good) and also that
surprise bought deal which made Ero Copper’s (ERO.to) share price sink to attractive
levels. It’s on the Watch List for good reasons, after all.
 Regional Politics? Still Argentina, oh yes. Also a few more thoughts on Cobre Panama
and the ongoing mess around that mine.
Second call for 2024 Basket Cases
As noted last weekend, regulars know this segment but they also know that it gets repeated a
few times in order to drum up interest and ideas. Thanks are due to those who offered their
ideas in the last seven days (always appreciated) but the more suggestions the merrier, so here
1

we go with prompt number two. Every November/December your author puts together a long
list (then a short list) of stocks for our three tracking baskets for the year to come, namely The
Copper Basket, Producer Basket and TinyCaps Basket. Year-end will see those lists refreshed,
with companies leaving and replaced by others and as usual, I already have a few ideas for
companies to swap out and swap in. However, the Long List is a big part of the game and for
that, we throw the subject out to the collective mind of readership and ask for suggestions.
Your suggestions and prompts are greatly valued because there are always some ideas for
companies, large or small, that beat mine and end up on the lists. With that in mind, here’s the
framework and as the baskets are somewhat different in make-up, first a reminder of what type
of company we need in each list:
 For The Copper Basket: We look for a group of 15 stocks that as a whole represent the
junior copper mining world. The maximum market cap is $1Bn, but preferably I like
them lower to better reflect our sector of interest. We welcome tinycaps, as a cross
section is required. As we’re not trying to beat the street and want a faithful reflection
of the sector, always happy to include bad copper companies or dog stocks if they bring
something to the table.
 For The Producer Basket: There is no upper limit in market cap size, but we do require
a minimum market cap of U$2Bn. For this list, I’m looking for suggestions for precious
metals producers that will out-perform in 2024, as we also have the less important
(except for my own ego) exercise of trying to beat the GDX benchmark.
 For The TinyCaps: First and foremost, for this list we require companies with a market
cap of $20m maximum, as The TinyCaps tracks market moves of the smallest
companies. However, at this level of market cap there are many broken stocks and
dead companies with projects going nowhere. They are not interesting, as although we
cannot expect operational or managerial perfection at this level the company still needs
to “have a pulse” and be a reasonable trade or speculative alternative.
I normally look to change between three and five companies on each list, so if you have a good
candidate for the Producer, Copper or TinyCap list, be they companies you own or not (or if it’s
a doggish type of idea, perhaps “owned”) please drop a line the usual addresses. Thanks in
advance for any and all suggestions received and expect this intro note to run from now to the
second week in December.
The Fed Kabuki Theatre and the Santa Rally
No big intro today, we just tip our hat to Jay Close The Effing Door Powell and admire the way
h can still move the market with a few words or thoughts. All he had to do on Thursday was to
muse that inflation may be stickier than they originally expected and the market spun on their
heels, with the inference of higher rates hitting the mining sector harder than anything than the
wild world of geopolitics could ever do. All he wants for Christmas is a buoyant Black Monday
and a market rising through December, we’ll worry about 2024 later.
How long will his words last week and his market influence on the broad, gold, mining etc
markets last? Maybe no longer than the CPI reading, due our Tuesday morning because if that
comes in benign (as many expect), Powell’s words last week will be part of yesterday’s news
and the miners will rally again.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) 3q23 financials
This note was delayed from last weekend and IKN755 for straight and plain logistics but, as the
week wore on (with the emphasis on wear), I couldn’t help but wonder whether there may
have been a subliminal thing going on and my reticence to churn out the ARG review at all
costs may have had more subtle reasons. Things you know:
 I like this company a lot, it’s well-run, in normal market circumstances has a solid business
2

model and its management doesn’t simply pay lip-service to being fully aligned with their
shareholders, they walk the walk.
 I’ve recently sold two tranches of what was an outsized position, in order to raise cash for
the portfolio and build a warchest for future purchases.
 Recently and through no fault of their own, ARG has had operational problems at its MVC
facility in Chile. A storm hit their locality hard and affected many local mines and
businesses, knocked out infrastructure and power etc. Production and the tail end of Q2
was affected, but the biggest hit was to the Q3 period and that’s what ARG has just
reported.
We knew it wouldn’t be a great quarter, not least because ARG first guided to a lower
production level and then as usual, pre-announced production and sales a few weeks ago. The
revenues ballpark was in place, what was left to discover is costs and the hit ARG took to the
balance sheet as it made repairs and also made the smart long-term decision to bring forward
some infrastructure improvement plans to make the best of the storm damage and downtime,
spending cash now rather than later. That’s what we got from the company in its 3q23 earnings
report filed on November 1st (1) and that’s what we look at today.
However…however, however…we have also experienced a downturn in the price of copper
recently and last week saw another leg down, with spot closing under U$3.60/lb (again). Please
see The Copper Basket today (below) for more thoughts on that, but there’s no getting round
the fact that this drop in the price of copper is another stroke of bad luck and comes at an
inopportune time for ARG. And luck, bad or good, is something that matters to a stock trade,
particularly one in a junior miner operation with a single fixed asset. With intro and quick op-ed
in mind, we now dive into the ARG 3q23 numbers. So without further ado…
…we begin with a reminder on copper sales and gross revenues. As noted, Q2 and Q3 affected
by the issues but there’s every reason to expect a rebound to normal production levels in Q4
and then 2024 and beyond:
20 ARG.to: Copper sales
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
3
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
source: company filings
rtq/uC
sblM
In today’s note, we adjust our Q4 forecasts as well as reporting on the filed numbers in Q3, as
the current quarter is looking more important for ARG by the week. Average received price for
copper was U$3.76/lb for 3q23 (below left), we’re expecting a lower number for Q4 and now
estimate U$3.65/lb. That turns into gross copper value (below right) of U$41.6m for Q3, then a
return to healthier levels for Q4.
ARG: Average Cu price for MVC
80.4 44.4 32.4 23.4 46.4 01.4 05.3 08.3 20.4 08.3 67.3 56.3
5
4
3
2
1
0
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
U$/lb Cu ARG: Cu gross value, per qtr
source: Company data/IKN ests
1.85 6.66 0.27 6.27 8.37 7.36 8.65 1.16 8.66 8.25
6.14
2.06
80
70
60
50
40 30
20
10
0
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
U$m
source: company filings, IKN ests

Then comes the main charges to gross (below left) which came in slightly lower than our
forecast, then the molybdenum by-product credit (below right) which came in higher at
U$4.58m. That’s very welcome extra cash in a tight quarter and as noted previously while
chewing over the Q2 results, something we suspected may show up.
Finally, the copper spot price adjustment on previous billed sales for 3q23 was a modest
U$0.408m, but the forecast drop in average copper prices in Q4 means we estimate a further
$2m adjustment in the current quarter. Put that all together and we have a top line revenues
number of U$30.303m
ARG: Gross Cu value, Cu revs and Revs total, per qtr
4
797.37
904.97
567.35 766.36 818.55
485.33
457.65 879.74
858.03
241.16 729.56 548.94 897.66 2.07 846.25 908.25 882.94
630.23
855.14
2.14
3.03
2.06 522.85
8.83
90
80
70
60
50
40 30
20
10
0
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
ARG: Charges to Cu revs
40
35
30
25
20
15 10
5
0
U$m Cu gross value
Cu revs
Revs total
source: company filings
Meanwhile, the Q4 revenues top line forecast now comes to U$38.8m, lower than our previous
estimate due to lower spot copper levels applied.
We move to the P+L and with COGS coming in at U$32.353m, about $1.5m lower than our
forecast $34m, this leaves a gross loss of $0.204m. Then when we add in G&A, royalties and
the infamous “other” (below right)…
…the operating loss was $6.274m. We’d estimated a loss of $9.5m so thanks to slightly lower
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
U$m Transport ARG: Mo credits
smelting/refining
DET royalties
source: company filings, IKN ests
605.3 267.4 116.5 822.4 683.3 142.2 294.3 149.5
930.8
958.2 85.4 4
9
8
7
6
5
4
3 2
1
0
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
U$m
source: company filings, IKN ests
ARG.to: Quarterly Earnings overview
624.12
616.1 655.3-
738.8
874.31
503.3- 420.2- 8.2
65 60 55
50 45
40
35
30
25
20 15 10
5
0
-5
-10
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
revenues ARG.to: Costs breakdown
COGS Gross profit
275.82 954.13 920.03 673.13 49.33 811.23 933.23 869.13 414.43 800.14 71.93 143.53 353.23 63
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25 20
15
10
5
0
02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
U$m
other G&A+roy
COGS
source: company data, IKN ests

costs and that extra moly money, the operating loss came in slightly better than expected.
ARG.to: Gross, operating and net profits, per qtr
5
10.12
74.1- 41.5- 10.1-
44.31
72.3- 3.6- 2.1
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
U$m
Gross profit
op profit
Net Income
source: ARG data
Perhaps more importantly, by backing out the main non-cash charge of DD&A we get the “real
world margin” at ARG (as in the somewhat exceptional case of this company, DD&A is notional
and its resource can be assumed at near unlimited) and Q3 was a negative number. That
means its payments on debt, its dividend and any costs from the unexpected capex program
had to come out of treasury. That “real world margin” is forecast to get back to something like
normal in Q4 (and beyond), which means it will be able to cover its dues (e.g. the semi-annual
debt principle payment due at the end of this quarter).
ARG: The real world margin
33.21
97.71 24.02 93.22 79.61 15.22
49.52
95.3 20.0-
57.51 34.81
67.1
1.1-
2.6
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
U$m
source: ARG data, IKN calcs and ests
However, the cash draw down seen by ARG in Q3 is where we get to the problem, one that
shows on balance sheet items. It’s not so obvious on the main assets and liabilities charts…
ARG.to: Total Assets
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
…but when we look at the liquidity, a hole has suddenly appeared.
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
ARG.to: Liabilities Breakdown per qtr
200
cash&eq Trade/Rec Inventory other current 180
fixed 160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
LT liab
current liab
ARG.to: Cash and ST 80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
$m
ARG.to: Working capital
source: company filings
884.11
608.71
565.12
236.42
494.43 209.01
58.6 79.9
806.21
998.4- 27.21-
21-
40
35
30
25
20 15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
U$m
source company filings

Cash has dropped to U$13.131m due to more payments for capex materials than we expected
and with copper prices lower, the model forecasts that won’t move much in Q4. Meanwhile,
working capital has dropped firmly into the red and that’s going to stay there for Q4 and, most
likely, through the first quarters of 2024 minimum. That’s an issue, because it coincides with
the forecast weak period for copper demand before the projected pick-up in late 2024. If all
goes well, ARG will be able to get over this financially wobbly period and keep paying the
dividend without using funds from other places. However and it must be said, it’s only going to
take one more stroke of “bad luck”, or a bad quarter, or whatever else to put ARG under
serious financial pressure, in the near-term anyway. This company needs around U$15m
treasury for its normal liquidity purposes and can certainly survive a couple of quarters on
something less than that, but a sudden drop in copper prices would hit its top line revenues for
future quarters hard due to real world receipts and any price adjustment it would need to make
on previous revenues.
The bottom line: The delay to publishing on Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) from last weekend
was all about me and nothing about the company, but since then and after watching copper
drop due to outside influences, there’s growing reason to exit this trade. I’m not there yet and
if copper holds this current price or rebounds higher I’m not a seller, but please be clear; I see
no reason to wait and watch equity deteriorate from ARG if copper sinks lower in the weeks
ahead. The current spot price is at or near to the “indefinite tread water” level for ARG of
around U$3.50/lb, the price at which it can maintain its current business model, pay its bills and
come out level pegging after paying us our dividend. If the balance sheet were in better shape
that would be a reasonable level at which to tread water, but the extra costs from Q3 mean
that working cap is now negative and unless copper moves back up, it’s going to take a while to
get back into positive working cap territory. That’s a clear weakness and means that it’s only
going to take one more negative event, e.g. a sudden drop in copper or another outage (no
matter who is to blame), to change something
in its corporate strategy.
As from this weekend, Amerigo (ARG.to) has
“may sell” next to its name on the Stocks to
Follow list. The thought of raising the cash a full
sale would bring it very tempting to me and if
the market gives me another reason to do so, it
will happen. Even great companies go through
problem periods and I have enough money tied
up in this one to make a difference to my own
net wealth, as well as my desired strategy of
buying lot of cheap juniors when this market
finally rebounds.
Fortuna Silver (FSM) (FVI.to) 3q23 financials
When we ran the ruler over its 3q23 production numbers, five weeks ago in IKN751 dated
October 8th, it was clear to this desk that our forecast strong quarter for Fortuna Silver (FVI.to)
(FSM) was indeed going to materialize. We’d predicted one on umpteen occasions and sure
enough, the company delivered on production and
then last week, on the financial results we were
looking for, as well as strong guidance for the
future. However, last week FSM also managed
that classic mining sector trick of reporting a great
quarter during an awful week for gold and metals,
which did this to the stock price (right). As a
matter of fact, FSM lost 3c on the week despite
reporting its excellent quarter but also as a matter
of fact, from the time it opened on Wednesday
6

morning to the Friday close, it beat out the GDX benchmark by a cool 8%. So in absolute terms
FSM was a loser last week but relatively-speaking, the market did indeed reward its quarter.
A Pyrrhic Victory? I don’t think so and while this FSM trade is envisaged as a near-term one on
an eventual bull run in gold, it’s not time to abandon the idea just yet because all it will take
from here is a couple of good days for the monetary safe haven metal (and in these volatile
times, that could happen at the drop of a hat) and FSM should run fast and far on the back of
its transformed production and financial make-up.
So the same way as IKN751 we’ll check on the individual mine asset performances by sales and
costs, then consolidate them before moving to the financial results and the reasons to be
cheerful about FSM’s future. Also as in IKN751, we’ll do the mines in the same biggest-to-
smallest (so far) order:
 Yaramoko
 Lindero
 San José
 Caylloma
 Séguéla
Yaramoko: We did the production numbers in IKN751, today we focus on sales and costs and
at Yaramoko, the company had a strong quarter selling 33,971 oz gold at an average of
U$1,932/oz and an AISC of U$1,211/oz. The AISC is the main event here, that’s the type of
number expected from this asset from 2021 and it’s taken remedial sustaining capex work in
2022 and early 2023 to get it bac2k up to speed, but FSM is finally seeing true profits here.
We’re leaving the forecast 28,500 for 4q23 the same as before, but a number over 30k oz for
Q4 wouldn’t surprise in the least and 32,000 oz would break it through the top end of its 2023
guidance numbers.
FSM Yaramoko: gold prod & sales, per qtr
Lindero: The disappointment of 3q23 brought better news about Q4, as the company stated
that due to better grade coming on the mining sequence, Q4 should be a lot better. As for the
reported quarter, sales of 22,242 oz gold were low but the AISC wasn’t that bad, at
U$1,611/oz.
San José: The Mexico operations sold 8,068 oz gold and 134,779 oz silver at an average silver
7
49472 77092 03592 89542 55072 05262 03592 64952 17933 00582
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000 15000
10000
5000
0
12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
Oz Au production Yaramoko: Realized price vs AISC, per qtr
sales
source: company filings, IKN ests
3871 8811 6971 6341 8781 7411 8681 5651 6171 0361 2471 9281 9981 9051 6791 6261 2391 1121 0591 0541
2200
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200 1000 800
600
400
200
0
12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
realized price
U$/oz Au AISC
source: FSM filings, IKN ests
Lindero: Gold production & sales, per qtr
53901
79212 42981 95532 98363 91682 64503 46003 74872 21862 04152 24222 00392
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000 15000
10000
5000
0
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
Oz Au FSM Lindero: AISC per qtr
source: FSM filings, IKN ests
5501 8611 0721 499 8301 1511 9511 1221 4241 8861 1161 0051
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000 800 600
400
200
0
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
U$/oz
source: company filings, IKN ests

equivalent AISC of U$17.11/oz, all those numbers in-line with expectations. The quarter was
affected by industrial action, that’s now resolved and FSM says it’s looking for a return to
normal levels in Q4. The mine isn’t going to make its 2023 guidance levels and our Q4 forecasts
take that into account.
FSM San José: Gold prod & sales, per qtr
Caylloma: The multi-metal mine is also FSM smallest
producing unit these days. Sales of silver were slightly
lower than expected and that made the total revenues
come in at U$25.7m, about $2m lower than out model
predicted. Not a biggie.
Séguéla: The company’s newest mine has flown out
the blocks and sold 35,503 oz in Q3, basically the sum
of its Q2 pre-commercial production period and the Q3
total. In the conference call, CEO Ganoza made it
abundantly clear that Séguéla would continue to run
above its nameplate capacity in Q4 and we are
therefore estimating 40,000 oz gold for the current
quarter (but frankly, it may come out more). As for
costs, mine cash costs were U$397/oz and AISC was
U$788/oz, which delivers fully on its promise as a low
cost operation that will greatly improve overall
corporate margin.
Consolidated production: By metal, gold accounted for 79.0% of gross revenues in 3q23,
silver was 15.9% and the lead and zinc by-products from Caylloma were good for 5.1% of
gross revenues. So if we focus on the gold and silver, here’s the consolidated gold production
8
3899
2597 4658 4609 1268 5538
5965
8608 0009
12000 11000
10000
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
Oz Au FSM San José: Silver prod. & sales, per qtr
2000000
1800000
1600000
1400000
1200000
1000000
800000
600000
400000
200000
0
source: FSM filings, IKN ests
12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
Oz Ag
production
sales
source: FSM filings, IKN ests
FSM San José: Silver Eq AISC
29.41 23.51 14.51 32.41 35.51 15.51
70.42
40.71 5.51
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
U$/oz
source: FSM filings, IKN ests
Caylloma: Gross calc revs vs realized revs, per qtr
7.63 0.82 1.33 4.42 5.43 1.52 6.43 2.52 1.23 1.62 8.92 3.42 9.43 8.62 4.63 7.52
U$m
50
calc revs
40 real revs
30
20
10
0
3q21 4q21 1q22 2q22 3q22 4q22 1q23 2q23
source: company filings, IKN calcs
FSM Seguela: production (sales) Oz Au
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
2q23 3q23 4q23est
source: FSM data, IKN ests

which came to 94,772 oz gold in 3q23. A great result, but even with our somewhat conservative
pitches for 4q23 we now expect 106,900 oz gold for Q4…and that’s going to open a lot of eyes
to the potential at FSM.
FSM: Consolidated gold production by qtr
110000
100000
90000 40000
80000 31498
70000 4023
60000
50000 28235 24553 27130 26190 28500
26437 29002 34036
40000
30000
20000 30068 29016 30032 29301 25258 25456 20933 29300
10000
8239 8295 9091 8499 8231 5778 8205 9000
0
9
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
Oz Au
San Jose Lindero
Yaramoko Séguéla Caylloma
source: FSM data, IKN ests for 3q24/4q24
Moving to its other main product, silver sales came to 1,680,751 oz in 3q23 and with San José
forecast to get back to full production, we expect 1.85m oz Ag in Q4:
FSM Consolidated silver sales, by qtr
2200000
2000000
1800000
1600000
1400000
1200000
1000000
800000
600000
400000
200000
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
Oz Ag Caylloma
San José
source: FSM data, IKN ests
Then on applying average received prices to sales, this chart shows the big jump achieved in
Q3 and how that is expected to improve in Q4.
FSM: Gross sales breakdown by metal, per qtr
300
275
250
225
200
175
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
U$m
Zn sales
Pb sales
Au sales
Ag sales
source: FSM filings
The above is gross sales breakdown and totals just under U$255m. There’s a little friction to
apply to the gross number (middlemen and NSRs), but when we move to the P+L data we see
that U$243.055m made it to top line revenues. That’s an impressive jump and by assuming a
modest average of just under U$1,900/oz gold and U$23/oz silver, that goes even higher (and
average gold price could be much better than our assumption) at U$257m.

FSM: Quarterly Earnings overview
10
8.711
5.66
3.15 5.021
1.27
5.84 6.261 2.511 3.74 9.891 6.041 3.85 3.281 8.811 5.36 9.761 3.531 5.23 6.661 9.141 7.42 7.461 7.831 0.62 7.571 2.531 4.04 4.851 5.621 9.13
1.342
2.771
9.56
0.752
0.571
0.28
300
275
250
225
200
175
150
125 100 75
50
25
0
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
U$m
revenues COGS Mine Op. Inc
source: company filings
Turning to costs, 3q23 COGS came in at U$177.177m which was about U$7m higher than our
guesstimate for the quarter. I’m happy about that number, even though I pitched to the low
side because a multiple asset mining company with a new mine coming on line isn’t an easy
one to estimate. We should get better costs per ounce in Q4 and our COGS estimate doesn’t
move very much higher, even though we expected FSM to produce over 10,000 oz more than in
Q3. So operating income came in at U$65.878m (above and below left),or 21c on a per share
basis. That’s very good cash generation (free cash flow was U$113m) and that’s set to improve
to 27c in Q4 if we have our sums right.
FSM: Mine Operating Income per qtr
90
80
70
60
50
40
30 20
10
0
Very strong numbers for a U$3.00 stock and while the net earnings figure of U$30.883m
(10.1c/share) made more headlines for the generalist public, we will always care more about
operating profit at any growth story and FSM qualifies easily on that score. With that money,
FSM fanfared its decision to pay down $40m of its financial debt and as the company goes into
this cash cow mode, expect plenty more headlines of that ilk in 2024 and beyond. The liabilities
are on the large side after this period of growth, but that’s the corporate plan now they get to
work on improving it quickly. As for assets, they now stand at a grand total of 2.046Bn
(U$6.68/share) and book value (assets less liabilities) at U$4.51/share. That’s a number to set
in the brain because there’s no reason why a performing a profitable mining company cannot
trade at or above it BV/share level.
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
U$m FSM: Mine Operating Income/share, per qtr
source: FVI filings
82.0 62.0
61.0 02.0 22.0 11.0 90.0 90.0 41.0 11.0 12.0
72.0
0.30
0.25
0.20
0.15
0.10 0.05
0.00
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
U$/share
source: company filings, IKN calcs
FSM: Liabilities Breakdown per qtr
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3
U$m FSM: Assets Breakdown per qtr
2200
LT liab 2000
current liab 1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
source: company filings
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3
U$m
fixed
other current
cash&ST
source: company filings

Finally, even after using U$40m to pay down its debt load FSM saw working cap jump higher
(below left) and it’s now at highly liquid levels. It
wouldn’t be a surprise to see more cash than “just” FSM: Shares Out
U$40m applied to debt pre-payments in the quarters
ahead. Then to round off, the shares out chart shows
a total of 306.44m as at end 3q23 now the Chesser
all-share acquisition is now closed. No reason to
expect that to go any higher and we may have to
watch out for the announcement of an NCIB share buy
back program (though paying down the cash debt
should be the priority today).
Bottom line: Fortuna Silver (FSM) put in a great
quarter and guided well for Q4, very much in line with what we expected when taking our
near/medium term trade position. The wide market hasn’t moved in our favour and to your
author’s surprise, FSM still trades at/around the U$3.00 price point any fund manager covering
this sector and worth their salt will have noticed the step up in production, revenues and profits
seen in this quarter and understand the bargain that FSM implies today. All this needs is a gold
rally and it’ll be back at U$4, then the next stop would be 1.0X Price/Book, which would imply a
50% upside to this weekend. There’s every reason to expect FSM share to get there, as long as
the gold price provides a tailwind instead of a headwind.
Stocks to Follow
A cheer for Contango ORE (CTGO). Not only was it our only winner on another tough week for
junior mining companies, but it somehow added enough to get our cost average into the green.
It was the only relief available however and there’s no sugar-coating how bad it as gold, copper
and everything anti-dollar went South and took the miners with them. Aside the already failed
Minera IRL, all the other Stocks to Follow were losers and there were several big drops, starting
with SolGold (SOLG.to down 14.3%) and following with Ero Copper (ERO.to down 12.5%),
Surge Copper (SURG.v down 11.8%), Newcore Gold (NCAU.v down 10.3%), Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v
down 10.3%) and let’s add Marimaca Copper (MARI.to down 9.1%) to the tail end of the bigger
losers, too. There was very little shelter in this storm and the action was that of top-down
money running for the exits and the tide going out, for example not even the strong 3q23 filed
by Fortuna Silver (FSM) was enough to stop it from a (minor three cent) week-over-week loss.
We currently have 16 open positions on the list, four below our self-imposed maximum. I own
12 of the names, four are Watch List. Six are in the green, ten are in the red.
11
2.481 1.581 3.581
5.192 5.192 9.192 4.192 2.092 2.092 4.092 4.192 5.603 0.703
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
source: company filings
serahs
fo
snoillim

company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.27 28.6% $0.75 first tgt, #1 idea
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Amerigo Res ARG.to may sell C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.22 -10.3% may raise cash in Cu downturn
SolGold SOLG.to BUY C$0.265 19-Feb-23 C$0.15 -43.4% Cu in Ecuador, M&A tgt
Equinox Gold EQX STR BUY U$4.46 30-May-23 U$4.56 2.2% Au leverage trade, good Q3
Fortuna Silver FSM STR BUY U$2.92 13-Aug-23 U$2.99 2.4% New trade, want quick flip
Contango Ore CTGO BUY U$18.70 30-Jul-23 U$18.83 0.7% Au dev play, production FY24
Newcore Gold NCAU.v SPEC BUY C$0.205 23-Oct-22 C$0.13 -36.6% Showing signs of life
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v BUY C$0.83 22-Apr-18 C$0.175 -78.9% Cheap on permit probs, appeal
SPECULATIVE TRADES
Western Explor. WEX.v SPEC BUY C$1.87 9-Apr-23 C$0.65 -65.2% Continues to drop, needs news
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v SPEC BUY C$0.72 16-May-21 C$0.80 11.1% drilling again
Minera IRL MIRL.cse avoid C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.01 -92.3% run into ground byCEO, AVOID
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
Marimaca Copper MARI.to WATCH C$3.65 26-May-23 C$3.48 -4.7% Likely buy, want cheap entry
Surge Copper SURG.v WATCH C$0.11 18-Jun-23 C$0.075 -31.8% tinycap Cu in BC Canada
Provenance Gold PAU.cse WATCH C$0.085 8-Oct-23 C$0.095 11.8% Idaho gold drill play
Ero Copper ERO.to WATCH C$18.94 22-Oct-23 C$16.18 -14.6% High quality Cu producer
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.63 6-Dec-20 C$0.29 -54.0% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2023 date closed close price
Altiplano Metals APN.v jan'23 C$0.31 17-Sep-21 C$0.17 -45.2% delayed and will dilute soon
Western Copper WRN.to mar'23 C$2.02 13-Nov-22 C$2.32 14.9% sold on reduced M&A prob.
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v may'23 C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$1.75 -43.0% Closing on legal action news
Amerigo Res ARG.to may'23 C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.48 8.8% sold 20% to raise cash
Amerigo Res ARG.to oct'23 C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.21 -11.0% sold 10% raise to cash
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v oct'23 C$0.265 25-Apr-21 C$0.12 -54.7% sold raise to cash
Faraday Copper FDY.to oct'23 C$0.79 26-Mar-23 C$0.68 -11.4% sold raise to cash
AbraSilver Res. ABRA.v oct'23 C$0.36 4-Dec-22 C$0.28 -22.2% sold raise to cash
Orecap inv OCI.v oct'23 C$0.04 20-Nov-22 C$0.03 -25.0% sold raise to cash
2015 to 2022 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on some of our covered companies:
Marimaca Copper (MARI.to): Those with the intestinal fortitude for the trade should note
that MARI is now at very buyable levels compared to nearly all of 2023. Watch List only at the
moment and it’s one of those that’s making me sit on my hands and remember my vow not to
buy anything at the moment. As tough as it is to watch quality current holdings drift lower (e.g.
Minera Alamos), it’s almost as difficult to see discounts in juniors with projects that will indeed
become mines and stay clear of the buy button. MARI is your poster child.
Ero Copper (ERO.to) (ERO): All the above also applies to ERO.to, the other “quality copper”
on our current Watch List. Please see Market Watching below for more on its sudden price
drop.
Minera Alamos (MAI.v): Another week of pain. MAI will either report its Q3 this week
(possible) or the week after (probable) and once it does there will be more to comment upon.
The story hasn’t changed and it’s still in great shape to deliver its win. Babies and bathwater.
Contango ORE (CTGO): Memo to self: Next time this drops under U$17, tell the world that
12

it’s becoming tradeable and is showing an obvious dip to buy.
Surge Copper (SURG.v): This small copper exploreco on our Watch List also reported its
quarter last week and so far at least, it hasn’t done what we kind of expected it to do and go to
market to raise money. That’s left a small selection of our tracking charts looking like this:
SURG.v: Cash treasury per qtr
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Treasury is tight, but not quite running on
fumes yet. However, SURG is going to need
to raise capital sooner rather than later and
as such, we’re now modelling a raise that
leaves the company with C$3m at bank at
the end of the year (its Q3 period) and
around 220m shares out. We should also
note it has room to offer warrants in any
units of an offering, as 38.2m warrants
expired unexercised last month.
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v): The RIO.v team, including Exec Chair Alex Black and CEO Andrew Cox,
were in Chile last week to lobby the Chilean government and request celerity for its appeals
case. No word on how the lobbying went, but we’ll keep our ear to the ground.
SolGold (SOLG.to) (SOLG.L): There may be a shareholder rebellion brewing at SOLG, as it’s
been pointed out to this desk that the current team only managed to win around 60% approval
at the last AGM in December and, after the way it’s traded recently, big holders may be out for
blood. It’s become downright painful to own this and my mistake was to assume the Ecuador
election result would bring some clarity to the CSR backdrop and allow a deal to happen. My
other mistake was to take Bob Sangha at his word when he said they’d get a quick sale. Wrong
on both counts. Holding and unhappy.
13
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 tse32q3
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
260 SURG.v: Shares Out
240
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 tse32q3
source: company filings
serahs
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snoillim
SURG.v: BV/share
42.0 72.0 72.0 72.0 52.0 52.0 52.0 52.0 32.0 32.0 32.0 22.0
0.30
0.25
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 tse32q3
C$
source: company filings, IKN calcs and ests

The Copper Basket
After forty-five weeks of 2023, The Copper Basket shows a loss of 23.46% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Solaris Res SLS.to 6.44 148.15 717.05 4.84 -24.8%
2 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.22 92.882 323.23 3.48 8.1%
3 Western Copper WRN.to 2.41 151.597 254.68 1.68 -30.3%
4 Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to 1.92 105.96 140.93 1.33 -30.7%
5 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.78 169.819 135.86 0.80 2.6%
6 Hot Chili HCH.v 0.78 119.455 117.07 0.98 25.6%
7 Faraday Copper FDY.to 0.54 175.2 96.36 0.55 1.9%
8 Oroco Res OCO.v 0.91 216.13 89.69 0.415 -54.4%
9 Regulus Res. REG.v 1.10 124.509 90.89 0.73 -33.6%
10 Pan Global Res PGZ.v 0.46 242.74 43.69 0.18 -60.9%
11 Kodiak Copper KDK.v 1.12 56.2 33.16 0.59 -47.3%
12 QC Copper QCCU.v 0.165 162.815 18.72 0.115 -30.3%
13 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.16 106.25 12.75 0.12 -25.0%
14 Atacama Copper ACOP.v 0.16 35.94 7.55 0.21 31.3%
15 Libero Copper LBC.v 0.155 119.58 2.99 0.025 -83.9%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg -23.46%
A cheer for Hot Chili (HCH.v up 6.5%) and Element 29 Resources (ECU.v) which rose by half a
cent on the week. There were also two stocks
The Copper Basket 2023, weekly evolution
unchanged in Regulus (REG.v had its tape painted 15%
10%
Friday afternoon) and Atacama Copper (ACOP.v is
5%
still halted), so we got that going for us. With 0%
those out the way we move to the real -5%
commentary and the eleven losers on the week, -10%
-15%
as there was little escape for copper juniors as the
-20%
USD rose, spot copper dropped and the world
-25%
chased the broad markets higher either despite or -30%
because of a looming recession (haven’t quite
worked out which one yet) and something Jay
Powell said while he wasn’t swearing about doors
being left open. The biggest percentage losses were taken by Libero (LBC.v down 16.7%),
Faraday (FDY.to down 12.7%), Pan Global (PGZ.v down 10.0%) and we should probably
mention Marimaca (MARI.to down 9.1%) and Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.to down 8.9%) as well.
And with that, we rack up eight 2023 lows in a row for The Copper Basket. On October 1st
when deciding to lighten exposure to the market and particularly to copper junior in the main
fundies note “Five Sales” in IKN750, that weekend The Copper Basket average stood at -
13.03%. In the six weeks between then and now, the basket has lost over 10% from its
average and that’s a lot for such an index. It gives me no pleasure in being right on the call to
lighten at the beginning of last month, however there’s no doubt that it was the right call.
Moving on to copper-the-metal, spot once
again dipped under U$3.60/lb on Friday
and closed there, so much for the relief
rally and we’ll find out how much of that
was knee-jerk reaction to Jay Powell and
how much is reality-based in the next 48
hours or so. Meanwhile, we zoom out the
focus for this week’s copper futures chart
and go with a two-year timescale with
some red ink added by your author:
14
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2yluj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6gua ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3pes ht01 ht71 ht42 ts1tco ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5von ht21
source: IKN calcs

Numbers and notes:
1) That sharp copper sell-off during 3q22, which bottomed at under U$3.20/lb, on interest
rate rises and the expectation of recession.
2) Prices then traded in a range around U$3.40/lb, all while this desk banged on the table
for higher prices.
3) An all-too brief period of pleasure.
4) Since then we’ve seen the sluggish Chinese economic expansion (or recovery, depends
on who you read) and the extended timeline of “higher for longer” rates take its toll on
Dr. Copper. It’s not quite as bad as late 2022 yet, but the longer we get lower highs
and the baseline at which we’re holding, the more chance of breaking lower again.
It’s a dangerous game, perhaps even foolhardy, to second-guess the near-term future fro
copper when the longer-term fundamentals are as rosy as they are. We’re all clear about the
looming supply deficit further out this decade, so is it even worth it to try and play cute and
predict the next 20c move in the metal? Sadly, it’s what I find myself doing on a weekly basis
and what’s more, I’m trying to be cute with my own money by tweaking the portfolio. I strongly
suspect that if I didn’t write The IKN Weekly I’d have a different view and be far more able to
“buy and go fishing” at these current prices. This, above all, is what I want you the reader to
consider as I flip one way about copper then flop the other. We know:
 Longer term supply will not cover longer term demand
 There’s a dearth of pipeline projects
 Juniors with quality projects will have their day in the sun
There are questions that arise from those statements, such as “when exactly?”, or “what junior
first?” or “just how much supply deficit will we see?”. The answers to those depend on many
factors, for example I simply cannot see the Energy Transition (let’s capitalize it) going at the
rate proposed by the likes of Cathy Wood and Goldman Sachs and therefore, the most dramatic
deficit forecasts for 2026 or 2030 are for other people, not for me. I also know that for every
quality copper project, there are five mediocre companies promoting what is at best a
speculation on market sentiment.
We move on. Time for our carefully curated copper market commentary of the week and first
among the pack is (2) ING’s Industrial Metals Monthly report, this edition entitled “Metals
assess China’s fragile recovery”. It’s a good read on other metals (e.g. iron ore and nickel), but
this general comment stands out for our purposes:
China’s recovery is still uncertain
The most recent PMIs showed that after September, the momentum of the economy
slowed in October, with the index returning to contraction territory. China’s recovery is
still uncertain, and metals are likely to see some continued volatility for a while, at least
in the near term. We still believe that until the market sees signs of a sustainable
recovery and economic growth in China, we will struggle to see a long-term move
higher for industrial metals.
China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
No argument there. Our tracking chart
54
of the China Manufacturing Purchasing
53
Managers Index (PMI) (3) shows how
52
the reading have been stubbornly
51
under the 50 line, denoting sector
50
expansion.
49
48
Next up, this (4) interesting report
47
helps shed light on how the
46
Chinese/Asia demand pipeline sees
copper going for the next few months.
Entitled “Copper treatment charges for
China seen at or below current levels in
2024” and comes as a prelude to Asia Copper Week, the time for conferences and so forth but
also, importantly, when buyers and sellers get together to decide on TC/RC charges for the year
15
von ced 1202naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 2202naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 3202naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco
source: China PMI

ahead. As an exception to the normal rule, I’m going to paste out most (not all) of the note
instead of a snippet and a prompt to “go read it all”, because this one is worth your time. It has
a nice little explainer on why TC/RC charges are a useful indicator, plus sector details and
opinion from experts so if you’re long copper, take the time and read this instead of my inane
blathering:
BEIJING/HANOI, Nov 10 (Reuters) - Global miners and Chinese smelters are
expected to agree on a 2024 benchmark for copper treatment charges (TCs) around or
below the current $88 per metric ton as smelting capacity expansion is likely to offset
higher mine supply, industry sources said.
Miners pay TCs and refining charges (RCs) to smelters to process copper concentrate
into refined metal, offsetting the cost of the ore. TC/RCs fall when tight concentrate
supplies undermine copper smelters' profit margins.
Despite an expected concentrate surplus, industry sources expect the TC/RCs
benchmark in 2024 to be similar or lower to this year's $88 a ton for refining and 8.8
cents per pound for treatment, which were six-year highs.
Miners polled by Reuters gave forecasts for the TC benchmark ranging from the $70s
to below $88, while smelters gave predictions in the $85-$88 range. Two analysts each
predicted a roll over of $88, and two traders both predicted $90.
"Smelters in China are running at full capacity and new projects are ramping up
solidly," said a miner source.
China's monthly output of refined copper has been sitting at record levels above 1
million tons since March, boosting demand for copper concentrate.
Spot TCs in China, as assessed by index provider SMM, slid to $85.03 a ton on Nov.
3, having mainly stayed above $90 during May-October, which will likely play in miners'
favour ahead of the annual TC/RCs benchmark negotiation in Shanghai during Nov.
13-17.
Consultancy CRU forecasts a surplus in the concentrate market to grow from an
expected 33,000 tons this year to 260,000 tons in 2024.
With expectations of ample supply earlier this year, China's top copper smelters lifted
their TC/RCs guidance for shorter-term contracts, setting it at $95 per ton and 9.5
cents per pound for the third and fourth quarters this year, the highest since 2017.
However, the TC/RCs benchmark is usually influenced by the market balance of the
benchmark year and the year after, said analyst Craig Lang of CRU, using analysis of
TC/RCs data from the past decade.
CRU predicts a deficit of 342,000 tons in 2025 for the copper concentrate market, as
big smelters in Indonesia and India will likely operate in full swing.
The deficit could emerge as early as the second half of 2024 and into 2025, when
large-scale smelting projects come online in China and elsewhere, said Antaike, a
Chinese state-backed research house.
In addition, forecasts for concentrate supply and benchmark next year become more
complicated due to uncertainty around whether miner Freeport-McMoRan FCX.N could
continue to export concentrate from Indonesia beyond May 2024 as Jakarta pushes for
more ore to be processed domestically.
The note also comes with some useful visuals, notably this chart compiled with CRU/Reuters
data that shows the likely small surplus this year, the CRU forecast supply surplus of 260,000
tonnes in 2024 and then the moment when the market turns, later in 2024 and into 2025 and
beyond:
16

Nothing particularly new there and I’ve added a note on the other dataset predicting a 2024
surplus, as published by the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) a few weeks ago, that
forecasts a larger surplus of 427kmt next year. Meanwhile and for the nearer term, copper may
come under pressure from a market looking to take advantage of a aesthenic China growth
model, geopolitical turmoil and a Fed that once again is signalling more stubborn inflation than
recent assumptions.
Time to switch gears again and check in on our regular weekly check on world copper
inventories, data from Cochilco:
 Moderately bullish data this week, but nothing too crazy. The overall world aggregate
move was a small drop of 6,471 metric tonnes (mt), with the total this weekend
233,354mt.
 However, there are two changes of note and the first is at the Shanghai SHFE, which
dropped by a solid 5,670mt to close Friday at 34,846mt. Not the biggest drawdown, but
considering the low level of stock it’s more evidence that the Chinese mainland is
scrambling for supply as the year winds down. In theory, there are four more weeks of
pressure.
 The other bullish data point comes from the LME, where the total only dropped by
600mt to close at exactly 180,000mt but 4,600mt were lost from Asia LME warehouses
and the difference was made up by additions to New Orleans (roach motel) and Europe
(mostly Rotterdam).
 Comex stocks dropped by 201mt to close the week at 18.508mt. T
The dedicated SHFE chart shows that low level of stocks, now clearly lower than this time last
year but tracking the Q4 2021 line closely.
SHFE copper inventory levels, 2018 to 2023
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
17
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
MT Cu 2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
source: Cochilco data
Now for notes on a few basket stocks:
Pan Global Resources (PGZ.v): This time last week
the comment was that PGZ had probably “found its
price from here to the end of the year”, the placement
and its warrant would overhang now and that bargain
hunters who bought at 15c were “another near-term
headwind to consider.” That started looking silly on
Monday when PGZ popped as high as 23c, but no
volume followed the uptick and the price melted away.
Come Friday and that bad end to the week for all
mining stocks, PGZ closed 10% down at 18c and
Faraday Copper (FDY.to): On Monday FDY filed its Q3 financials and unlike most explorecos,

it came with a comprehensive NR (5) covering the main aspects of 2023 development to date
as well as an overview of its strong financial position. Back in February when covering its large
placement that raised $38.4m in net proceeds for the company, we noted that FDY laid out a
clear budget on how the company was going to deploy
those funds and modelled them leaving 3q23 with C$18m
in cash and working capital of C$16.5m. As things turn
out, they filed 3q23 treasury at C$19.95m and working
cap at just over C$18.5m, so they’ve done better than our
model. That’s good and the company is positioned well for
2024, but the Q3 report couldn’t stop this from happening
last week (right). It can’t really be called a liquidity event
as volumes were low, but we sold our position in FDY in
late October for 68c due to fears of this type of thing
happening. It’s a tough market for all exploreco stocks,
not just the ones with obvious weaknesses.
Libero Copper (LBC.v): One of the “pleasures” (inverted commas required) of offering
strident opinions of fanboy stocks on social media is the waves of abuse one gets in the return
mail. That’s true of LBC and one person comes to mind this weekend, who must have averaged
down big time when the stock hit 5c and claimed it was a “no brainer buy” with “no downside
risk at this price”. He’s now 50% down on that addition. Equities are not assets.
Western Copper (WRN.to) (WRN): This most annoying of copper juniors last week came
out with a new way of announcing a delay to its Casino permitting track in this NR (6) dated
November 10th:
Western Copper and Gold Corporation…has submitted to the Yukon Environmental
and Socio-Economic Assessment Board (“YESAB”) Executive Committee a schedule
for submission of the Environmental and Socio-economic Effects Statement (“ESE
Statement”) for the Casino Mine Project.
In the schedule, Casino indicates that it plans to submit the ESE Statement in the
second half of 2024.
It continues from there. It’s worth remembering that this company published its first Feasibility
Study on Casino in February 2013, nearly eleven years ago. That’s not a PEA or Pre-Feas, but a
full-scale bankable feasibility study. Those are the documents that one supposedly takes to the
financiers and raises construction capex with and while normally you don’t go raising money
with all permits in-hand, the permitting track should at least be clearly incorporated into the
plan. So with due respect*, last week’s NR is a crock and if I were still a shareholder in this
company, I’d be spitting feathers. The loss on Enquist as COO is another clear indication that
RTZ isn’t about to pull any triggers.
*Not much
The Producer Basket
After 45 weeks of 2023, the Producer Basket shows a loss of 1.34% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 47.20 1152.6 39.42 34.20 -27.5%
2 Barrick GOLD 17.18 1761.54 26.81 15.22 -11.4%
3 Agnico Eagle AEM 51.99 488.9 23.01 47.06 -9.5%
4 Wheaton PM WPM 39.08 451.963 19.43 42.98 10.0%
5 Kinross Gold KGC 4.09 1256.1 6.51 5.18 26.7%
6 Alamos Gold AGI 10.11 393.1 5.03 12.79 26.5%
7 B2Gold BTG 3.57 1074.567 3.23 3.01 -15.7%
8 Hecla Mining GFI 5.56 610.491 2.31 3.79 -31.8%
9 Eldorado Gold EGO 8.36 185.73 1.94 10.42 24.6%
10 Wesdome Gold WDOFF 5.53 147.526 0.77 5.24 -5.2%
All prices and stock quotes in U$ Port. avg -1.34%
18

And suddenly we’re losing again.
Well, not against the GDX benchmark because give or take a couple of tenths, our basket of ten
PM producers for 2023 held the line and kept its lead. Instead, we’re talking about going back
underwater for the year, as the tough week saw all stocks lose ground, GDX down 7.5%, GDXJ
down 7.4%, GLD down 2.86% and our basket average back into the red. All ten of the
components were losers and all lost a substantial amount, from the least worst Wheaton (WPM
down 4.3%), Alamos (AGI down 4.8%) and Agnico (AEM down 4.9%) to the heaviest hits taken
by Hecla (HL down 12.7%), Newmont (NEM down 12.4%) and B2Gold (BTG down 10.2%).
When the “best” we have is a 4.3% loss and the basket kept in-line with the benchmark you
know that the whole sector took a real shellacking.
The 2023 Producer Basket: Percentage difference
between GDX benchmark & basket (negative = IKN ahead)
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
-4.0%
-5.0%
Newmont (NEM): A tough week for NEM that started with a corporate fanfare when on
Monday, it announced the formal closure of the merger with Newcrest. That puts the new share
count at (an IKN estimated) 1.1526Bn S/O and the market cap at U$39.42Bn. So, I’ll leave this
here:
On January 1st 2023 the NEM market cap was U$37.71Bn, less than two
billion dollars lower than this weekend. The deal was valued at U$17Bn.
Somehow, somewhere, fifteen billion dollars has been wiped off the mining
sector slate.
As for the market’s response to the closure, it’s difficult to imaginer it any worse outside of a
full-on market crash scenario. There are several apparent reasons for the eye-catching drop
and they of course include the negative macro
backdrop for the miners last week (NEM sure can
pick their moments), but the selling was incessant
all week. We understand that the GDX and other
ETFs were busy re-balancing their holdings and
weightings, then there must have been plenty of
larger instos doing the same under orders from
compliance.
However, when all is said and done NEM is still the
world’s biggest publicly traded gold stock and the
market leader, so its performance in the days to
come matters to us all. The signal was very
negative last week and smacks of a financial world
not just abandoning NEM, but the whole of the gold mining sector. That might have been an
overreaction to Jay Powell last Thursday and his latest, rather successful attempt to get the
market to jump or bump on the back of his words.
Hecla (HL): Monday saw HL report its 3q23 financials and rather than “beat”, “in-line” or
“miss”, the best word that comes to mind is “Meh”. Four tracking charts and a little commentary
is enough to get the gist. We knew silver and base metals production would be hit by the
19
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2yluj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6gua ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3pes ht01 ht71 ht42 ts1tco ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5von ht21
The 2023 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
comparative to GDX control
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
source: IKN calcs, NYSE data -10%
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2yluj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6gua ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3pes ht01 ht71 ht42 ts1tco ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5von ht21
ikn
gdx control
source: NYSE, IKN calcs

suspension of operations to Lucky Friday (that is set to continue all through 4q23) but gold
stepped up and the ramp up at Keno Hill papered over the cracks:
HL: Gross sales by metal
20
7.32
7.09
6.73
9.33
2.98
8.16
1.04
5.89
7.97
1.64
8.77
2.18
1.54
4.101
8.77
3.25
1.68
8.29
4.84
0.59
9.16
0.55
6.97
2.16
2.55
2.77
3.66
5.25
0.28
1.07
1.44
3.96
9.54
7.45
4.07
7.28
3.85
1.57
5.18
6.74
9.26
5.97
8.84
2.07
4.47
240
220 200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60 40 20
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3
U$m
silver gold base
source: company filings
Costs were higher than expected, with input cost inflation at the COGs end and a nasty U$21m
hit for the suspension costs at Lucky Friday making “other” heavier than expected.
HL: Costs breakdown, per qtr
788.58 358.29 30.301 9.001 283.69 23.011 45.211 536.89 77.501 19.511 9.401 32.231 55.521 57.701 12.211
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80 60
40
20
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3
other
U$m Expl & pre dev
G&A
DD&A
COGS
source: company filings
Mining-wise, HL made a gross profit (COGS and DD&A) but add in the normal costs of doing
business and income from ops (plus G&A, exploration, “other”) and it dips into the negative
Unsurprisingly, net income was the same.
U$m HL: Gross margin, income from ops, net profit
60 gross profit
50 income from ops
40 net income
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40 source: company filings
4q21 1q22 2q22 3q22 4q22 1q23 2q23 3q23
Finally, HL delivered a negative on the ramp-up at Keno Hill, cutting its guidance to between
1.6m oz and 1.8m oz for the year, though 2024 remains unchanged. They blame glitches and
employee availability, though we also note that its H&S ratio is higher than it should be and
that won’t help when trying to attract labour.
HL: Silver production, per qtr
954.3 525.3 676.2 722.3 523.3 546.3 945.3 466.3
0
140.4
481.0
946.3
17.0
428.2
8.0
6.2
5
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5 2 1.5
1
0.5
0
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
Moz Ag HL: Gold production, per qtr
KHSD
silver ex KHSD
source: company filings
40025
93195
70224 77974 24614 91754 74744 99634 71793 15253 96293 00083
60000
55000
50000
45000
40000
35000
30000 25000 20000 15000
10000
5000
0
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
Oz Au
source: company filings

It’s probably the final item on Keno Hill that did most
damage to its share price. The reaction was negative
at the bell Tuesday but, as seen in this ten-day
comparative to GDX, the comparative weakness to
the field only showed up when the market reacted to
Jay Powell’s presser on Thursday afternoon. But at
that point there was zero interest in holding HL and it
went South more quickly than the average name,
eventually posting an even worse week than the
banner piñata Newmont (NEM). With silver looking
weak and Lucky Friday best described as anything
but that at the moment, there’s no real reason to
own this stock above other PM companies.
Wesdome (WDOFF) (WDO.to): Wednesday also saw Wesdome (WDO.to) (WDOFF), one of
our focus companies file this year (it’s on the 2023 Producer Basket for that specific reason),
file its 3q23 and here’s the ten-day price chart compared to GDX:
It didn’t go well. Even though we weren’t expecting a massive quarter from WDO, it had pre-
announced production and sales after all, the numbers proffered were less than most forecasts
and there are question marks on costs and the balance sheet.
WDO.to: Revenues
Revenues at C$69.696m were as expected (below left), but costs were on the higher side
(below right) and that…
21
2.34
3.75 8.45 0.55 4.84
0.64
9.36 5.76
5.58
7.66 9.16 8.16 0.57 7.67
6.48
7.96
100
90 80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3
WDO.to: Costs overview
CAD$m 100
90 80
70 60
50
40
30
20
10
0
source: company filings
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3
CAD$m
mining process costs depletion
G&A other expenses
Source: WDO.to filings, IKN calcs
WDO.to: Operations overview chart
845.76
636.93
219.72 505.58 82.75 522.82 496.66 111.15 385.51 139.16 253.06
975.1
328.16 283.56
955.3-
540.57 233.76
317.7
107.67 222.96
974.7
555.48 279.09
714.6-
696.96 514.97
917.9-
C$m
100
90 revenues
total op expenses
80 Op earnings
70
60
50 40
30
20
10
0
-10 source: company filings, IKN calcs
3q21 4q21 1q22 2q22 3q22 4q22 1q23 2q23 3q23

…means a heavier loss than expected. The real story around WDO at the moment is Kiena
Deep and the company stressed that development was still on track for initial high grade feed
at mid-2024 (though we still don’t quite know why the “early 2024”, itself revised from the
original Middlemiss era timeline, has been quietly pushed back at least one quarter and perhaps
as much as two). The company also stressed that its financial obligations were well covered to
the point the new feed transforms production at Kiena at cash treasury at over C$31m shows
the liquidity required, however…
WDO.to: Cash treasury per qtr
…the balance sheet clearly deteriorated in the quarter and the working cap number (above
right) reminded your author that this desk had expected a chart along these lines earlier in the
year, only to upgrade forecast working capital when WDO filed more upbeat Q1 and Q2
quarters than we’d modelled. It seems our original capex projections were more accurate than
even I dared think, with spending delayed rather than over-estimated.
In this current market backdrop there’s a feeling of less benefit of doubt being afforded to WDO
and it will need to deliver Kiena on time in 2024. The spending pattern suggests it may come in
slightly over (the revised) budget too, but that’s of secondary importance at this point. Overall,
the decision to “watch not touch WDO in 2023 has probably been the right one, but that hasn’t
stopped me from making mistakes in other trades rather than in one here. It still has the long-
term advantage of holding profitable assets in perhaps the most covered political risk
jurisdiction in the world. That will keep the share price buoyant and one day, this two-mine
company will become a meal for a bigger sector player. When, though?
Kinross (KGC) (K.to) and Eldorado Gold (EGO) (ELD.to): We could write up other stocks
this week such as Wheaton (decent Q3 reported and
“only” down 4%) or B2Gold (mediocre numbers and
rising costs found it suitably whacked by 10%), but the
stories repeat and with few exception, there was no
escape for anything with the words gold or silver in
their corporate title last week. That means plenty of
proverbial babies were thrown out with the bathwater
and while WPM will appeal as a Buy The Dip candidate
for instos with deepest pockets, I’d nominate Kinross
and EGO as two most unfairly hit last week Kinross
(KGC) filed strong earnings and pleased the market but
as you see (right), even though it beat GDX it was still a
loser on the week and over the ten days of the chart.
As for EGO, we know its Q3 was very good (see recent
coverage) and it deserves to trade higher than the
recent U$11 line, not down here closer to U$10. If you
think the reaction to Jay Powell’s verbiage on Friday
was overcooked, EGO is one that I think will rebound
quickly and show relative strength in the days to come.
22
893.94 337.66 315.37 84.36 488.36 997.76 374.96 467.65 274.25
615.32 147.42 581.33 60.52 760.22 285.13
80
70
60
50
40 30
20
10
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3
source: company filings
DAC
fo snoillim
80 WDO.to: Working Capital per qtr
70
60
50
40
30
20 10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3
source company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim

The TinyCaps List
After 45 weeks of 2023, the TinyCaps show a gain of 15.06% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Aurelius Min AUL.v 0.07 49.787 1.00 0.02 -71.4%
Coast Copper COCO.v 0.045 64.001 2.88 0.045 0.0%
District Metals DMX.v 0.075 86.891 15.64 0.18 140.0%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.13 69.962 4.90 0.07 -46.2%
Manitou Gold MTU.v 0.02 344.568 18.95 0.055 175.0%
Nine Mile Metals NINE.cse 0.29 57.025 3.42 0.06 -79.3%
Palamina Corp PA.v 0.08 65.285 6.53 0.10 25.0%
Precipitate Gold PRG.v 0.075 130.367 7.82 0.06 -20.0%
South Star STS.v 0.55 40.129 30.50 0.76 38.2%
Viva Gold VAU.v 0.14 106.721 13.34 0.125 -10.7%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 15.06%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $20m. They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a
little and allowed sub-U$20m market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, but it was a particularly depressing exercise to trawl through the whole of the TSXV and find companies
that are small enough, but with life in them. The vast majority of sub-$20m stocks are broken stocks, either
traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2023. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
As inconsequential a week as can be imagined for TinyCaps, 2023 weekly tracker
50%
this TinyCaps basket, so we’ll do the round-up and 45%
40%
move on to more interesting matters. Zero winners,
35%
six unchanged stocks and four losers (DMX.v, LMS.v, 30%
25%
STS.v, VAU.v) and of those, only Viva Gold and its
20%
13.8% drop made much difference. That’s all for 15%
10%
today.
5%
0%
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of
recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with market
caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the
wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future I may buy shares
in one or several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
Argentina: Tonight’s big debate and next Sunday’s big day
To start, here’s the screenshot of the latest poll results table (it’s Argentina and unlike many
other South American countries, they’ll poll junkies with plenty of established firms as well as
wannabe pollsters) taking in those published in November. There has been a modest swing
towards Javier Milei since he put himself in the hands of Mauricio Macri, toned down the
rhetoric and moved to capture as much of the centre as possible. Of the pollsters listed, I’ve put
a couple of red rings around the two that best predicted round one. Very few predicteda Massa
victory, let alone by over six points and Proyección Consultores and CB Consultora were closest.
They both now slightly favour Milei for next weekend.
23
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2yluj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6gua ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3pes ht01 ht71 ht42 ts1tco ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5von ht21
source: IKN calcs, TSX data

However, those polling forecasts are not the final predictions and may change between now
and next weekend, as tonight saw the only live TV debate between the two candidates. A
debate on the weekend before a run-off vote is a fixture in the Argentine political calendar, it’s
taken very seriously by both teams and its audience (viewer numbers are always very big) and
many undecided voters will be influenced by what they see. That’s important this year, as there
are still a sizeable percentage of people trying to decided which is the least worst (cannot say
better).
As it turns out, the debate was a bit of a let-down. The two candidates spent more time lobbing
insults and loaded questions at each other and the two hours was very light on real policy
content. The main takeaway was to compare the professional and unruffled manner of Sergio
Massa, the consummate politico (be that good or bad) to the easily triggered and short-fuse on
Javier Milei. That’s what all the major newspapers and commentariat picked up on and while
there’s no doubt Massa won the debate, he deliberately made it more about style than
substance in an attempt to shows Argentina that his adversary was not “Presidentiable” (that
word again).
The bottom line: To borrow from Yogi Berra, it's tough to make predictions, especially about
the future and one way or the other, we’ll know the identity of the next Argentine President by
this time next weekend. Not a long time to wait and this is a tight race, with polls mainly
pointing to a tight race within their margins of error, but I still think it’s okay to stick my neck
out and predict a Sergio Massa victory. If so initial market response is likely to be negative
(bonds etc) but for mining, Massa will be just fine and he even mentioned the sector as one of
his proposed pillars of growth during his presidency. Any weakness on next weekend’s result is
best considered a buying opportunity. As for Milei, he’s certainly not out of it but once again
during this debate, he came across as a person unsuited to the role of Head of State (and
personally, as noted previously, I think he’d be seriously bad news for the country over the
longer-term…but that’s just me). He has a 20% chance next Sunday, but Massa remains the
favourite no matter what those polls above say.
The Cobre Panama protests: Get set for the long haul
Two things to mention as we update the drama going on around the First Quantum (FM.to)
Cobre Panama mine in the eponymous country. Well, three in fact:
1) The country’s Supreme Court is now centre of the issue. They have published a couple
of communiqués to state that they have received and accepted three formal demands
against the Constitutionality of the contract between the State and FM.to. They are
being considered separately and the first has an evidence collection period to
November 23rd. After that, the Supreme Court will have ten working days to make a
ruling (but there are a couple of procedural things that will delay the start of the ten
day clock from ticking). Protesters have vowed to continue marches and road blocks
until the Supreme Court hands down a ruling and much of the country is suffering from
the actions. The ruling, when it comes, is bound to spark controversy one way or the
24

other, as if the contract is rescinded it opens the door to international arbitration (and
that’s even if the mine keeps operating, which is almost certain). If the contract is ruled
legal, it will be fuel on the fire for protests.
2) This issue has become the big political football for the next Presidential election. Expect
candidates to run with a clear position on the future of Cobre Panama as one of their
key campaign issues, expect people to vote accordingly.
3) The third is, therefore, a bit of a given: Expect trading in FM.to to be highly volatile
between now and May. We note that Chinese minority owner Jiangxi Copper decided to
buy shares on the open market last week, increasing its position from around 18.3% to
18.5%. That’s interesting and helped shore up the stock price, as they still have room
between here and 19.9% to add more. All the same, the share price of FM is now
behest to Panamanian politicians and their chances of being the next President of the
country, so choppy waters are almost certain for the next six months.
We reiterate that a physical closure of Panama Cobre
is highly unlikely. Also, “protester fatigue” will take its
toll on detractors and with a six month period to
debate the polemic issue, the average citizen will get
to be better informed of the pros and cons of the
operation, the contract, etc. However, the trite and
classic “expect volatility” is the only price forecast
you’ll get from this desk going forward and it’s not
easy to see this back at C$20 in the near-term, let
alone the $25 to $35 range it enjoyed for most of
2023 (and as high as $#9.19 in August).
Peru announces its stimulus
The “investment shock” (jump start) plan as noted last weekend was duly announced last week
by Peru’s FinMin Alex Contreras. Here’s a portion of this Reuters report covering the event (7):
Contreras was upbeat about the recovery plan, which he said would lead to a surge in funding for
public and private projects of up to $8 billion in 2024, from $2.3 billion this year.
"We are betting on a major recovery" in the fourth quarter, Contreras told a press conference,
adding he expects Peru's annualized inflation to fall to around 3.8% to 3.9% in November.
With the fresh stimulus, Peru's economy will still be able to hold the country's fiscal deficit to its
goal of 2.4% of GDP this year, Contreras said.
"We're looking to create a jolt of confidence, for the private sector to understand that the
government is committed to reactivating the economy," he said. "We don't want the country to fall
into pessimism."
There was some padding of the announcements, as many of the supposedly 25 initiatives are
closely related and could be classed together, but unsurprisingly a lot of the investment plans
are placed on the mining sector. The main thrusts are to get big mine projects such as La
Granja moving and under development and to unblock the bureaucratic bottlenecks of permits
and so forth. The former will need the cooperation of the owners of the mine projects, the
latter is firmly in the hands of the government and the near-permanent complaint from Peru’s
mining industry. In that score, we had a lot of the same promises we’ve heard before and it’s
going to be a case of “seeing is believing”. There also seems to be a split between the
governments plans to make exploration permits easier and those for mine development and
operations. Ion the one hand, we had the Minister of Energy and Mining stating for the record
that, “In one month, we will have implemented the “Single Window” for mine exploration
projects” (with “single window” referring to the plan to make permit application to just the
Ministry of Mining, rather than having to run around a whole bunch of ministries and
government bodies). However, the head of Peru’s SNMPE mining chamber of commerce, Victor
Gobitz, reported to an SNMPE conference that during a meeting with the government last week,
he was told that (8) the “Single Window” would be “an effort that’s more for the medium-term”
for the mining sector. In other words, don’t hold your breath for next month and most
companies won’t see any difference next year, either.
25

Overall, the “Investment Shock” looks like more heat than light and this ineffectual government
would have to do a very quick 180° shift in attitude in order to implement the grand plans in
the way they were set out last week.
Market Watching
Ero Copper (ERO.to) (ERO) runs a bought deal
The big bought deal announced early last week in this new Watch List position was an
unexpected and interesting development and has potentially accelerated its price cycle. Last
weekend in IKN754, we chewed over the 3q23 numbers from ERO and decided that if anything,
they’d come in slightly lighter than our modest expectations. Here’s a brief reminder of the
house call via the final paragraph of the note, go see the whole thing for the numbers and
charts and stuff:
Back in IKN753 it was an C$18.94 stock, its lost a few extra pennies since then and
with its Q3 now in the rear window, the “look don’t touch” call has been borne out. We
put ERO.to on the Stocks to Follow Watch List for precisely this reason, as the recent
drop to under C$19 has made for a value entry point but it could get cheaper still.
Now, with the (in)famous Canadian Tax Loss Selling period now upon us, we may see
more pressure and while a lot will depend on what the price of spot copper does from
here to the end of the year, our deep value bargain entry point may eventually appear.
This is one to watch, as its combo of share price dip, growth in 2024 and what we
expect from the price of copper as the world economy starts to pick up again next
year and bring that forecast copper supply deficit into sharp relief could make this
company at its current price a bargain for the ages. Very likeable and while I wouldn’t
blame anyone from starting to build a position right now, it’s one I’ll continue to
monitor for the time being.
So much for last weekend. Monday saw ERO trading down a couple of extra clicks, then post-
bell we got the news (9):
“…Ero Copper Corp…has entered into an agreement…under which the Underwriters
have agreed to purchase, on a bought deal basis, 8,510,000 common shares at a price
of US$12.35 per Common Share for gross proceeds of approximately US$105 million.
The Company has granted the Underwriters an option, exercisable at the offering price
for a period of 30 days following the closing of the Offering, to purchase up to an
additional 15% of the Offering to cover over-allotments…”
Thoughts arising:
 The bought deal is led by BMO and is set to close this coming Tuesday, November 14th. It’s
also a big bought deal. All the same, my first reaction was that it wouldn’t be an issue to fill
it completely and quickly and there’s every reason to expect the overallotment to be fully
taken. If so, that will make the final sale 9,786,500 shares for gross proceeds at U$120.86m
 While hindsight on the price chart shows there was some relative weakness in the period up
to the deal (right), that period also covers the Q3 earnings announcement and as the
company didn’t offer up sparkling numbers, that’s probably the reason for the weakness.
There wasn’t any word of this placement on the jungle drums either. Long story short, the
parties involved did a good job in keeping the deal quiet.
 According to the NR, net proceeds “…will be used to advance growth initiatives at the
Company’s Tucumã Project and Caraíba Operations, advance regional exploration programs,
as well as for general corporate and working capital purposes.” That’s fair enough.
 Above all, it’s interesting that ERO has decided to keep its revolving loan facility in its back
pocket. Last week we noted that its U$150m revolver remained untapped and we expected
the company to use it in order to finish the Tucumã build-out. Clearly, the team has other
ideas and effectively, the bought deal share placement raises the capital it needs to bring
the new mine on line in mid-2024. It also means the balance sheet won’t dip temporarily
26

into the red. Our model now forecasts ERO leaving this year with a working cap of U$110m
and while that might not be exact due to timing of capex items, it’s a better look than the
previous forecast of a mere U$10m. As for the market reaction…
ERO.to: Working capital
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
-50
…ugh, that’s heavy. We use the USD ticker for ERO in this to show the contrast of the U$11.75
finish to the U$12.35 bought deal price. It was going to drop on this news, but the severity is
product of the poor mining sector backdrop and in a better market, we’d be closer to U$13 than
the U$12.35 bought deal ticket price. This may put the overallotment fill under a little doubt
and that’s why I’ve pitched the working cap at U$110m rather than U$120 for year end.
However, the long-termers in this audience looking for a cheap entry point for a quality copper
name and unafraid of chop at the bottom of the market should look no further. This price is the
level we were thinking about when placing ERO.to on the Watch List recently and it’s come in
all of a hurry.
As for me, I am concerned about the nearer-term for the copper price (hence my concerns
about Amerigo, see above) and thoughts of Tax Loss Selling season as well. This is a great
price for ERO shares, be in no doubt, but it may get better. If I were an insto I’d be all over this
and thinking about 2028, but I’m but meek retail player with a portfolio to manage actively.
And yes, that can be a stupid thing to do. Watching closely.
SilverCrest Metals (SILV) (SIL.to) 3q23 financials
On Wednesday, SilverCrest Metals (SILV) (SIL.to) was one of the throng of producers to report
its quarter that day and as you can see, the results pleased the market.
The share price shot higher at the bell Thursday morning before being dragged back down by
the negative scenario for all mining stocks on Thursday afternoon and Friday morning. To its
credit, SILV put up a fight into the Friday close and was one of the vanishingly few larger
mining stocks to manage not to lose market cap last week.
SILV is one of the stocks we’ve been attracted to recently due in part to its price drop after that
Technical Report in late July/Early August whacked the share price and, in theory at least,
opened the door to a value trade. After humming and hahing about the idea in August we first
ran a closer look at the SILV fundies in IKN745 dated August 27th and the main note that
27
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
U$m
source company filings

weekend, “Considering the financials”. At the time, it was a U$4.83 stock price and here’s the
final sentences of that note, to remind you where we stood:
If you’re in the market for a silver trade and are looking to speculate on higher prices,
SILV offers a quality way to add leverage and given the right combination of market
influences, it will go higher and make me look stupid for not buying any. However and
on due consideration, I think there’s more potential reward in other places and will
therefore pass on this good miner that’s valued close to its correct level today.
We’ve had a few other smallish notes between then and now, but we did more real work when
SILV published its 3q23 production numbers. That was four weeks ago in IKN752 dated
October 15th and that weekend, it was priced at U$4.90.
Which brings us to today and the Friday close of U$5.20. It fits in with the house target price of
U$5.50 and how SILV is a good option, I’ll go with Fortuna Silver but wouldn’t stop anyone
from buying it. Updating our charts and below left, the U$37.46min mine operating income was
slightly under our forecast of U$39.8m. At the business end of the P+L, net earnings of
U$29.936m makes for an EPS of 20.5c, a good result that beat our house forecast of 18.3c,
mostly due to a lower forex adjustment than we’d expected. Nice job of seeing a mining
company manage to get a lot of its Operating Earnings to its bottom line. FWIW I’m sticking to
the 18.5c EPS forecast for 4q23, mostly due to erring to the side of caution and the average
price of silver potentially dropping a little.
SILV: Quarterly Earnings overview
As for balance sheet items, I’m happy with the house model prediction of U$115m for working
cap compared to the reality of U$118.329m and have adjusted up the model for Q4 and 1q23
accordingly. Overall, SILV is in very strong shape financially and provides plenty of backbone to
the equity price.
Bottom line: We expected a good quarter from SILV
and got one and its price appreciation, though
modest, has been deserved since IKN752. So the
question is whether I’ve picked the wrong horse
between this and Fortuna Silver (FSM) (FVI.to) and
the answer is “maybe”. I’m still going to go with
FSM, as it offers more upside to gold (and silver) in
28
7.2 8.0 9.1 8.04 3.41 5.62
0.85
4.22 6.53
0.26
7.32 3.83
8.36
4.62 5.73
U$m SILV: EPS, per qtr
80
revenues COGS Mine Op. Inc
70
60
50
40
30
20 10
0
3q22 4q22 1q23 2q23 3q23
source: company filings
8.8- 1.2-
8.4
9.5- 0.6- 2.2-
2.71 3.21 5.81 0.61 5.02 5.81
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5 -10
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
U$/share
source: company filings, IKN calcs
SILV: Assets Breakdown per qtr
500 450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4 tse42q1
inventories SILV: Liabilities Breakdown per qtr
U$m f o ix th e e d r current 120 110 cash&ST 100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
source: company filings
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4 tse42q1
U$m
LT liab current liab
source: company filings
SILV: Working Capital per qtr
68.621
96.222
33.391 43.671 55.971 26.061 17.641
70.921
198.47 464.17
553.69 33.811 031 841
240
220
200
180
160
140
120 100
80
60
40
20
0
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4 tse42q1
source company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim

a positive metals environment but am happy to admit that on its Q3 performance, SILV is doing
better than even my previous bullish view expected.
American Eagle (AE.v), project consolidation and pending drill results
I’m not sure if you want to finish an edition such as this
one by considering a speculative exploreco, but we’re
going to do it anyway. We’ve mentioned American
Eagle (AE.v) a few times in Market Watching over the
last year, due to its promising NAK copper project in
Canada and the ongoing drill program there. Three
things to say:
1) It keeps bouncing off the 18c line and did it again
last week, touching that price on Wednesday before
rallying and closing Friday at 21.5c, all while most of its
peers were sinking.
2) It bounced on positive fundies news, as seen here (10):
Toronto, Ontario--(Newsfile Corp. - November 9, 2023) - American Eagle Gold Corp.
(TSXV: AE) (OTCQB: AMEGF) ("American Eagle" or the "Company") is pleased to
announce that it has excercised its option to repurchase a 20% interest in its NAK
copper-gold porphyry project from Orecap Invest Corp (TSXV: OCI) (OTCQB: ORFDF)
("Orecap"). American Eagle now owns a 100% option to purchase the NAK copper-
gold project in the Province of British Columbia ("NAK").
AE.v is a member of the Ore Group of companies, run by Stephen Stewart and including
companies I’ve held such as QC Copper (QCCU.v) and Orecap Invest (OCI.v), as well as others
such as uranium exploreco Baselode (FIND.v). The deal between AE and OCI at the time
included a clause that AE could buy back the 20% sold by paying $1.5m in cash or shares and
it’s done just that, by emitting “…6,976,744 common shares of the Company, at a price of
$0.215 per share…”. This makes sense for both parties, as it now means AE is 100% owner and
can market itself more effective. Meanwhile, OCI is aligned with the success of its sister
company.
3) Drill results are pending. Another look at that chart above shows how AE.v share spike
higher on occasion, with those spikes tending to coincide with drill assay NRs from NAK.
We’re expecting the next batch soon and with Teck also interested these days as a strategic
partner, good results from the upcoming drills in what may prove to be the sweet spot for
NAK could move the stock higher quickly. And with 100% ownership now, too.
This is still a high risk proposition of course, you need the right sort of risk tolerance to play the
drill assay game and it’s certainly not for everyone. Also, please note that interested though I
am, I am not a shareholder of AE and as noted above, I’m doing everything I can to preserve
treasury and maybe even added to my personal portfolio cash position at the moment, rather
than spending any. All the same, this heads-up on a speculative potential trade at the end of
IKN756 exists for a good reason and AE.v is a stock worth watching for assay news in the days
to come and seeing its resistance at 18c provides a level of comfort to those who dare.
Conclusion
IKN756 is done, we end with bullet points:
 Fortuna Silver (FSM) (FVI.to) delivered a strong quarter on a bad week. The trade is
still live, let’s see what the CPI reading does to the market and whether it unwinds any
of the Powell musings of Thursday.
 Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) may be a sell, which surprises me but there you go. It’s
29

mostly about the copper price, but it’s alos about the bad timing of the copper drop
happening at the same time as a soft financial moment for the company. No decision
yet, though.
 Sergio Massa is still favourite for next weekend and the big job, as wild as it might be
to consider that the candidate of the current government in Argentina. Just goes to
show that 145% annual inflation doesn’t stop things from happening.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stock is Minera Alamos (MAI.v). Flash
updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best wishes, Mark
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://amerigoresources.com/_resources/news/nr-20231107.pdf
(2) https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/industrial-metals-monthly-metals-assess-chinas-fragile-recovery/
(3) https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/chinese-manufacturing-pmi-594
(4) https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/asia-copper-week-copper-treatment-charges-for-china-seen-at-or-below-current-
levels-in
(5) https://faradaycopper.com/news-releases/faraday-copper-reports-q3-2023-financial-results-6538/
(6) https://www.westerncopperandgold.com/news-and-resources/news-release/western-copper-and-gold-provides-
guidance-on-environmental-and-socio-economic-effects-statement-submission-and-infrastructure-update/
(7) https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/peru-economy-minister-announces-stimulus-measures-amid-recession-
2023-11-09/
(8) https://gestion.pe/economia/ventanilla-unica-para-la-mineria-saldria-aun-en-el-mediano-plazo-dice-snmpe-noticia/
(9) https://erocopper.com/news/ero-copper-announces-us-105-million-bought-deal-financing/
(10) https://finance.yahoo.com/news/american-eagle-buys-back-20-110000066.html
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2022
Closed in 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
Goldshore Res GSHR.v Nov'22 C$0.18 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 88.9% Quick profit taken
Palamina Corp PA.v Dec'22 C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.08 -72.9% Clear-out of underperformer
Pure Gold PGM.h Dec'22 C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.015 -89.3% tiny trade on vh risk, went Ch11
30

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Set-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
31

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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