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The IKN Weekly
Week 755, November 5th 2023
Contents
This Week: Erratum, In Today’s Edition, Wanted: Basket Cases for 2024, December plans
(slightly different this year), Jobs and gold miners. Deferring on Amerigo Resources (ARG.to).
Fundamental Analysis: Equinox Gold (EQX) 3q23 production and financials, Ero Copper
(ERO.to) 3q23 production and financials.
Stocks to Follow: Fortuna Silver (FSM) (FVI.to), Aldebaran (ALDE.v), Minera Alamos (MAI.v),
Contango ORE (CTGO), Amerigo Resources (ARG.to).
The Copper Basket: Overview, Pan Global Resources (PGZ.v), Oroco Resources (OCO.v),
Solaris Resources (SLS.to), Atacama Copper (ACOP.v).
Producer Basket: Overview, Wesdome (WDOFF) (WDO.to), Barrick (GOLD) (ABX.to),
Eldorado Gold (EGO) (ELD.to).
The TinyCaps Basket: Overview, District Metals (DMX.v).
Regional Politics: Argentina Presidential election: Two weeks to go, The Cobre Panama
protests, Ecuador is quiet, Peru getting ready to shock.
Market Watching: Mailbag on Eldorado Gold (EGO) (ELD.to) at Perama Hill, SilverCrest Metals
(SILV) (SIL.to) also reports next week, Goldshore Resources (GSHR.v) runs a placement.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
Erratum
Another one, as reader WN puts me straight on Guerrero, Mexico:
“…please take note that Acapulco is NOT the capital of the state of Guerrero.
Chilpancingo, 118km inland from Acapulco, is the capital, One of those mysteries we
find so often in Latin America.
Indeed. That’s exactly the type of data point should have checked, instead of merely assuming.
And WN should know, as he lived for several years in the zone. Sincere thanks to affable
mailpal WN for the correction, we live and learn.
In Today’s Edition
 Today’s main fundies section covers the quarters reported by Equinox Gold (EQX)
(EQX.to) and Ero Copper (ERO.to) last week and the one we own did better than the
one we’re watching.
 Copper’s showing a pulse and it’s the them metal today, running through just about all
the sections of this edition bar the Producer Basket.
 Market Watching has a mixed bag of subjects, but the one to read first is the small
addendum on Eldorado Gold (EGO) to add to last week’s analysis of the company, as it
turns out I might have missed out on the best bit of all.
 Regional Politics? Argentina, oh yes.
1

Wanted: Basket Cases for 2024
Regulars will know this segment, it happens every November and today we begin this desk’s
annual call to you out there, esteemed subscribers of The IKN Weekly. But for those new round
here, every November/December your author puts together a long list (then a short list) of
stocks for our three tracking baskets for the year to come, namely The Copper Basket, Producer
Basket and TinyCaps Basket. Year-end will see those lists refreshed, with companies leaving
and being replaced by others and as usual, I already have a few ideas for companies to swap
out and swap in. However, the Long List is a big part of the game and for that, we throw the
subject out to the collective mind of readership and ask for suggestions. Your suggestions and
prompts are greatly valued because there are always some ideas for companies, large or small,
that beat mine and end up on the lists. With that in mind, here’s the framework and as the
baskets are somewhat different in make-up, first a reminder of what type of company we need
in each list:
 For The Copper Basket: We look for a group of 15 stocks that as a whole represent the
junior copper mining world. The maximum market cap is $1Bn, but preferably I like
them lower to better reflect our sector of interest. We welcome tinycaps, as a cross
section is required. As we’re not trying to beat the street and want a faithful reflection
of the sector, always happy to include bad copper companies or dog stocks if they bring
something to the table.
 For The Producer Basket: There is no upper limit in market cap size, but we do require
a minimum market cap of U$2Bn. For this list, I’m looking for suggestions for precious
metals producers that will out-perform in 2024, as we also have the less important
(except for my own ego) exercise of trying to beat the GDX benchmark.
 For The TinyCaps: First and foremost, for this list we require companies with a market
cap of $20m maximum, as The TinyCaps tracks market moves of the smallest
companies. However, at this level of market cap there are many broken stocks and
dead companies with projects going nowhere. They are not interesting, as although we
cannot expect operational or managerial perfection at this level the company still needs
to “have a pulse” and be a reasonable trade or speculative alternative.
I normally look to change between three and five companies on each list, so if you have a good
candidate for the Producer, Copper or TinyCap list, be they companies you own or not (or if it’s
a doggish type of idea, perhaps “owned”) please drop a line the usual addresses. Thanks in
advance for any and all suggestions received and expect this intro note to run from now to the
second week in December.
December plans (slightly different this year)
While on the subject of regular year-end life here at The IKN Weekly, I have a small
announcement. In a normal December the editions up to the Christmas week tend to be normal
(whatever that word means) and then the two editions that fall around Christmas and New Year
are “Bare Bones Only” and light in content, with main tables updated and numbers correct, but
not much more. We then re-start in the New Year with the newly re-formed baskets (see
above) and get back to real work in January.
It’s going to be different this year.
Please note that we the family (your author, little Joe, the good lady and #2 still inside the
good lady until March) are travelling in mid-December, as we’re spending Christmas with the in-
laws. This means that the editions up to and including Sunday December 10th will be normal
coverage, then follow three “bare bones” editions on the Sundays of the 17th, 24th and 31st
December. We then get back to real work on Sunday January 7th 2024. Thank you in advance
for your understanding.
Jobs and gold miners
Friday saw the US Jobs report move the market in many ways, with the headline +150k non-
farm payroll jobs added, a headline unemployment rate clicking up one notch to 3.9% and a
downward revision of added jobs from the previous two months leaving the market largely
2

nonplussed. Here’s what the inimitable Bill McBride thought of the numbers (1):
The headline monthly jobs number was below consensus expectations and
employment for the previous two months was revised down by 101,000, combined.
The participation rate and the employment population ratio both decreased, and the
unemployment rate increased to 3.9%.
This was a weaker than expected report, however the strikes reduced employment by about 30
thousand, and those jobs will likely be added back in November.
With the Fed having surprised absolutely nobody earlier in the week by leaving base rates
unchanged (it was one of the “unimportant” FOMC dates that had its outcome telegraphed a
long time in advance), the weak-ish jobs numbers added fuel to a growing consensus that the
US Federal Reserve, and therefore the world, is done with its tightening cycle. It also makes the
next round of US CPI and PPI inflation readings the hottest dataset in town this month, so
make a date in your business diary for Tuesday November 14th 08:30am and the CPI release.
With the unemployment figures signalling a further drop in inflation pressure, if that gets
underscored by CPI (PPI same week) in nine days’ time, PM miners should get a further boost.
Why so? What our sector of focus needs is a combination of higher metals prices and lower
input costs. Gold at U$2k or so (even U$1,900/oz will do) is one part of the equation but what’s
been holding miners back is the squeeze on margins
NEM: AISC per qtr
from below and the well documented hike in AISC
and cash costs at most (not all) Tier 1 and Tier 2
companies over the last couple of years. A brief
reminder is provided in the chart right, with sector
#1 Newmont (about to become even more number
one-er with the consummation of the Newcrest deal
just hours away) AISC showing a move from just
over U$1k/oz in early 2021 to over U$1,400/oz in
the last two quarters (and your bonus prize: NRM
guided AISC at U$1,200/oz at the start of 2023).
However, the small downtick in NEM AISC in Q3 is
something we’ve seen emulated in other large
companies and if we are truly 1) at the top of Fed rate rises 2) inflation pressure is now off and
3) gold continues to catch a safe haven bid in the way
we’ve seen, the macro backdrop is conducive to
improvement in operating margins.
No wonder GDX did what it did on Friday and as this
comparative price chart (right) shows, bullion also
played its classic “anti-dollar” role on Friday and rose
as the US Greenback (DXY proxy) fell on the prospect
of cheaper interest rates in the pipeline. Expect more
of the same if CPI does what the market is now
anticipating (and those pump prices for fuel in The
USA are giving people plenty of anecdotal reason to
get in beforehand.
Overall, our decision to lighten on copper trades (and one silver trade) while letting the gold
trades run at the start of October (see IKN750) is working on the theoretical level. Copper has
shown some better macro fundies this last couple of weeks and that’s good (after all, I’m still
net long) but let’s not forget the looming Tax Loss Selling season, arguably now upon us and
set to increase in cadence for the next six weeks or so I’m going to do my best to sit on my
hands for a while longer and keep powder dry. Cheap prices are certainly tempting, but let’s
see if some extremely cheap prices are in our near future.
Deferring on Amerigo Resources (ARG.to)
The plan was to write up the 3q23 financial results for our main copper play Amerigo Resources
3
9301 5301 0211 6501 6511 9911 1721 5121 6731 2741 6241
1600
1400
1200
1000
800 600
400
200
0
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3
U$/oz
source: company filings

(ARG.to) this weekend, what with them being reported to market last week. But a combo of the
more pressing need to cover Equinox (EQX) and Ero Copper (ERO.to), then time and space and
general laziness has it getting deferred until next weekend. There’s a small note in ‘Stocks to
Follow’ on the stock, including a price chart showing there’s need to make any quick decision.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Equinox Gold (EQX) 3q23 production and financials
The last time we went into detail on Equinox Gold (EQX), our main “leverage trade” to the price
of gold, was in IKN749 dated September 24th in the note “Equinox Gold (EQX) decides to raise
capital”, the weekend after the company announced it was taking out another U$172.5m in
convertible debt and screwed the share price royally in the process. Since that day we’ve waited
patiently for a little redemption by holding through to the 3q23 earnings report that we
expected would come in well and justify a share price rise in the stock. Sure enough, on time
last Tuesday EQX filed its Q3 and this five day chart comparing the stock to the sector
benchmark ETF for precious metals stocks (GDX) shows how things went:
That’s not bad. In a market where earnings day often means “liquidity event” for mining stock
holders wanting out of the sector, EQX held firm through the key day and come last Friday,
when the US reported jobs numbers that suited the PM complex, EQX did what it’s supposed to
do and offered plenty of leverage for those wanting to buy value.
 An overview of production and sales results
 A brief note on the numbers from each of Equinox’s producing mines
 What we know about the main development project Greenstone
 The financials
 Discussion and conclusion
That should keep this keyboard busy for the next hour or so.
Greenstone
Let’s take this out of order and cover what little extra we know about the Greenstone build-out
here. In its literature, EQX reported construction at 93% complete last week, adding another
3% to the number from October. During the Conference Call, the team made enough noises
about the build-out assume that we may even get a “Construction Complete” announcement
before the end of 2023, which would be slightly ahead of schedule. That wouldn’t mean
immediate production and we’d still have to go through the commissioning cycle, but it’s the
type of news that can move a market if timed right. As for budget, the company stated it’s still
on track but we do note that capital spend is slightly ahead of schedule and while that might
simply mean they’ve written some cheques for lead items this quarter for things that arrive next
4

quarter, it will be worth watching when in February the company will make a formal update on
capex for its major project.
Overall, things seem to be going very well at the Greenstone construction and if the mine is
indeed delivered on time/budget, there’s an obvious re-rate happening to this stock in 2024.
3q23 production and sales.
Now for the look back at what EQX did in Q3, as well as a little adjustment to our forecast for
4q23 and the overall 2023 year. We begin with the basics:
EQX: Consolidated gold production, per qtr
5
67108 15988
610721 768421 253631 332921 656221 857931
234012
254711 318021 516341 934051 647221 166731 980941 005461
220000
200000
180000
160000
140000
120000
100000 80000
60000
40000
20000
0
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
Oz Au
source: company filings, IKN ests
3q23 production came to 149,089oz gold (with sales very close to that number, of 148,231oz)
which compares to our forecast of 154,000oz. Production was not pre-announced and we were
flying blind into these earnings, so when you consider EQX is the aggregate of no fewer than
seven operating gold mines getting within 5k oz is a pretty good guesstimate, the only shame is
that the 5k was to the downside and not to the upside. In the above chart, we also have our
slightly revised forecast for production in the current Q4 period of 164,500 oz gold, there’s
more on that new guess below.
First we take a look at the individual performances of the seven working assets at EQX, in
rough order from biggest producer to smallest.
Los Filos: Located in Guerrero Mexico, Los Filos in Q3 produced a regular 39,455 oz gold, a
little lower than expected, while cash costs rose to U$1,863/oz and AISC to a nasty looking
U$2,082/oz. In fact we're probably getting the worst news out of the way first by showing
these numbers, as most of the other EQX mines did better than this. The company reported
hitting ore with higher than normal copper content and that’s not good, as copper is a preg-
robber on a heap leach and means EQX needed to apply more reagent and leave the mineral
on the pads for a longer cycle time. As a result and considering the company reaffirmed 2023
guidance, we expect Los Filos to bounce back in 4q23 and estimate production to move back up
to 45,000oz (it tends to put in its best quarter in Q4, too).
EQX Los Filos: Gold production, per qtr
Aurizona: Its biggest Brazilian operation put in a better quarter, but things still aren’t running
at full speed and the 32,185 oz gold produced at an AISC of U$1,492/oz was reasonable, not
outstanding.
7169 19671 03571
51631
74492 97072 73823
33745
65883 34713 12132 30004 47593 13873 55493
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3
Oz Au EQX Los Filos: Cash costs
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500 1000
500
0
source: company filings
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3
U$/oz
Cash Costs/oz
AISC
source: company filings

EQX Aurizona: Gold production, per qtr
EQX reaffirmed guidance at between 120,000 and 130,000 oz for 2023 and we’re pitching to
the conservative side in Q4 by estimating 35,000 oz, which World put the annual total at 121k
oz and change.
Mesquite: Its CA USA mine put in a good quarter and also stacked a lot of ore onto its pads,
which is likely setting up the mine for a bumper Q4. We saw 24,050oz produced in Q3 and the
AISC of U$1,129/oz is very competitive. Stacked grade remained good at 0.44 g/t Au and
7,600kmt stacked is ther highest quarterly amount put on pad in five years. As a result, we're
guesstimating 27,000 oz at this point for Q4 but even though that seems high compared to
other recent quarters, it could turn out to be low-balling and Mesquite is capable of putting in a
big quarter from time to time.
Fazenda: Steady as she goes, Fazenda has turned into a steady state achieve and its 15,503
oz gold at an AISC of U$1,431/oz is smack on expectations. Every reason to see the same type
of performance in Q4.
6
19023
06472
84233 83473 09223
03862
38543
85214
63922 41991 90752
01833
00852 73582
58123
45000
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3
Oz Au EQX Aurizona: Cash costs
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
source: company filings
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3
U$/oz
Cash Costs/oz
AISC
source: company filings
EQX: Mesquite: Gold production, per qtr
12304 24863 78693 42013 71733 74132 58142 46232
07866
05071 51543 35944 74472 50461
47312 05042
80000
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000 20000
10000
0
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3
EQX Mesquite: Cash costs
Oz Au 2200
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200 1000
800 600
400
200
0
source: company filings
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3
U$/oz
Cash Costs/oz
AISC
source: company filings
Fazenda: Gold production, per qtr
4434 45931 81151 69181 47171 03131 89551 99441 14741 26331 43271
40302
58651 97451 30551 00551
22000
20000
18000
16000
14000
12000
10000 8000
6000
4000
2000
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
Oz Au EQX Fazenda: Cash costs
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
source: company filings, IKN ests
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3
U$/oz Cash Costs/oz
AISC
source: company filings

RDM: The company’s #2 Brazilian asset produced an improved 16,327 oz gold at an AISC of
U$1,547/oz, which is higher than other mines on its books but if we consider the very
chequered history of this mine and the issues it’s been through (geological, environmental and
social/labour), it’s a decent achievement to see it back and producing an increasing amount of
gold at a reasonable profit. We’re estimating another 17,000 oz from the mine in Q4, which
would bring the annual total to 52k oz and inside 2023 guidance (50k to 60k).
EQX RDM: Gold production, per qtr
Santa Luz: EQX’s newest mine is still working on plant optimization and should start
performing better in 2024, but this quarter was reasonable enough and returned production of
15,332oz at an AISC of U$1,834/oz (which was a bit high). In order to make the low end of its
60k to 70k guidance for the year, Santa Luz will need to produce 15k oz but we think there will
be a little more from this mine in Q4 and estimate the last quarter at 17,000oz.
Castle Mountain: Last and least, Castle
Mountain continued to misfire last quarter and produced just 4,237oz at an AISC of U$1,648/oz,
with the problem being an ore that needs more crushing than expected, thereby causing a
bottleneck of tonnage to pad. They’re not going to make the bottom end of annual guidance
(25k) and even if our assumption of an improved quarter and 8,000 oz produced in Q4 occurs,
it will only get to just under 23k oz. At least they’ve manage to avoid an opex blowout and the
reduced amount of ounces produced are profitable.
7
0073 87591 80081 86081 89451 98041 08851 26331
0617 6856
12301
1708 2436
15921 72361
22000
20000
18000
16000
14000
12000 10000 8000
6000 4000
2000
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3
Oz Au EQX RDM: Cash costs
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
source: company filings
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3
U$/oz
Cash Costs/oz
AISC
source: company filings
EQX Santa Luz: Gold production, per qtr
012
1555
48171 08641 58441 12351 23351
Oz Au U$/oz EQX Santa Luz: Cash costs
20000 3000 Cash Costs/oz
18000
AISC
16000 2500
14000
2000
12000
10000 1500
8000
6000 1000
4000 500
2000
0 0
1q22 2q22 3q22 4q22 1q23 2q23 3q23 1q22 2q22 3q22 4q22 1q23 2q23 3q23
source: company filings source: company filings
EQX: Castle Mountain gold production, per qtr
8335
2192
8216
3787 7538
1325
9776
3905
4216
5544
7616
7324
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3
Oz Au U$/oz EQX Castle Mountain: Cash costs
2500
Cash Costs/oz
AISC
2000
1500
1000
500
0
4q201q212q213q214q211q222q223q224q221q232q233q23
source: company filings source: company filings

Consolidated production: This chart puts the sum of the parts above together, as well as
adding our estimates for 4q23 production:
Oz Au Los Filos Mesquite EQX: Consolidated Production, per qtr
Aurizona Fazenda
180000 RDM Castle Mtn source: company filings
160000 Santa Luz Pilar
140000
120000
20304 15500
1 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 2 7 9 4 3 1 6 1 1 3 9 3 9 6 1 2 4 1 2 7 5 2 7 3 0 4 9 33810 1 2 5 5 6 8 8 0 5 0 1 2 5 8 4 5 7 3 9 7 1 3 7 2 5 1 0 8 3 5 35000
60000 27000
17050 34515 44953 27447 16405 21374 24050
40000
20000 38856 31743 23121 40003 39574 37831 39455 45000
0
1q22 2q22 3q22 4q22 1q23 2q23 3q23 4q23est
Overall 3q23 was reasonable and EQX is building on previous quarters, but they’ll need to
deliver a winning 4q23 to make annual guidance. We previously estimated 2023 at 577k oz,
that’s now trimmed slightly to 547k oz but as this annual chart shows, the best is most
definitely yet to come and its percentage of Greenstone is set to transform the EQX production
base once fully up and running.
EQX: Annual gold production and forecasts
There is some better news when it comes to costs, as our previous estimate of 2023 AISC of
U$1,650/oz has been trimmed by $50 to U$1,600/oz (and it may be as low as U$1,570/oz, but
I don’t want to plug in too many optimistic criteria). As for 2024 and beyond, for the time being
I’m sticking to a relatively high U$1,600/oz for 2024 AISC modelling but I hope that turns out to
be wrong by up to $100/oz. We’ll see.
Financials
Putting all that together and moving away from non-GAAP AISC and to the real deal P+L sheet,
revenues of U$284.7m is better than recent quarters but still slightly less than expected by our
model, as the average received price for gold of U$1,917/oz was $15/oz lower than our
expectations. Gross margin was crimped further by an average AISC of U$1,630/oz (we'd
forecast U$1,600/oz) and the combined effect is a Mine Operating Earnings of U$25,202m,
instead of the U$51m we were looking for in our model. That $25m miss isn't a biggie and I'm
not sweating it too hard, putting it down to 1) the lower gold price and higher costs and 2) a
little too much optimism on my part.
8
710102
681774
011206
913235
000,475 000066 000028 000058
Oz Au EQX: AISC per year
900000
800000
700000
600000
500000 400000
300000
200000
100000
0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023e 2024e 2025e 2026e
source: company filings, IKN ests
929 5201
7431 2261 0061 0061 0041 0041
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000 800
600
400
200
0
9102 0202 1202 2202 e3202 e4202 e5202 e6202
U$/oz Au
source: company filings, IKN ests
EQX: Revenues vs Prod Costs
7.922 8.641 2.622 9.931 1.542 7.251
2.183
5.512 2.322 4.251 6.422 7.071 1.542 8.881 2.952 2.861 1.432 2.271 6.172 7.291 7.482 1.102
U$m EQX: Mine Operating Income, per qtr
450
Revenues 400
op ex
350
300
250
200
150 100
50
0
1q21 2q21 3q21 4q21 1q22 2q22 3q22 4q22 1q23 2q23 3q23
source: company filings
291.34
390.58
96.79
802.46
442.44 292.14 496.54
63.99 594.82
499.61
934.7
759.13
164.41
417.03 202.52
54
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30 20
10
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
U$m
source: company filings

However, I don’t think making the same mistake again with the forecast U$45m Mine Op
Earnings for 4q23, as that uses U$1,900/oz
gold price average and the improved
production number we expect. In fact, if spot
gold stays where it is there’s reason to believe
I’m pitching low this time. As for operating
income, the 3q23 result of U$8.616m was
admittedly thin, but the model spits out
U$28m for 4q23 and that’s 9c/share and more
like it from this company.
Of course, that type of OpEPS doesn’t justify a
U$4.88 share price, but EQX is all about
growth right now and the completion of
Greenstone. What we want from the company is regular results that keep its balance sheet in
shape until Greenstone comes on line, then the cash machine starts to crank up.
On that score, balance sheet items look in good shape. The overall asset and liability charts
haven’t changed much, but…
…the bigger surprise is the way EQX has aggressively drawn on its credit facilities. We expected
the company to use at least some of the new U$172.5m convertible facility to pay down part of
its revolving credit line, but that hasn’t happened. Instead the cash is in the treasury and we
assume about to be deployed on the Greenstone build-out. This chart shows the evolution of
the debt pile to date and the 2023 convert has been added on top, instead of replacing the
recent drawdown of the revolver (now up to its max $700m, the time discount applied to the
books):
EQX: loans and borrowings
9
748.484 27.584
961.982 19.982 156.092 14.192 715.582 126.972 607.372
497.763 521.064 887.065 58.365 675.465
141.296
1200
1100
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400 300
200
100
0
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3
EQX: Operating income, per qtr
U$m
2023 convert
other
2020 convert (Mubadala)
2019 convert (Mubadala)
revolver
source: company filings
So here’s how we now think debt evolves in the quarters to come:
519.33
743.45
116.47
380.01
509.13
419.31
116.12
340.97
70.31 843.3- 595.21- 81.31 536.1 270.41 616.8 82
90
80
70 60
50
40 30
20
10
0
-10
-20
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
U$m
source: company filings
EQX: Assets
96.096
1.0702 9.9702 7002 4.7202 3.0602
1.2782 7.5092 1.4082 8.4882 3.5103 2.2903 3.1023 6.9613 3.2923 7.0833
4500
4000
3500
3000 2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3
U$m EQX: Liabilities Breakdown per qtr
2200
fixed 2000
other current 1800
cash & eq
1600
1400 1200
1000 800
600
400
200
0
source: EQX filings
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3
U$m
LT liab
current liab
source: company filings

EQX: loans and borrowings (incl estimates to 2q24)
1200
1100
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
10
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4 tse42q1 tse42q2
U$m
other
2023 convert
2020 convert (Mubadala)
2019 convert (Mubadala)
revolver
source: company filings
EQX seems okay about holding the large cash debt on its books until 1) the 2019 convert
becomes due April next year and then 2) Greenstone comes online. In the meantime…
EQX: Current assets per qtr
1200
1100
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
other current
cash & eq
They now have plenty of cash to throw at the development, with U$356m carried as at end
September (just think what a bunch of our fave explorecos could do with that).
The bottom line: Equinox Gold (EQX) put in a good quarter in 3q23. Not a perfect one and
production could have been a touch higher (we had them producing 5k more than they did).
Los Filos continues to under-perform and Castle Mountain is a laggard, but the other mines are
either doing as expected or better, aggregate the cash cost was in line and with Q4 shaping up
to be a more productive quarter at lower cash costs, there’s plenty to like here.
The reason to own EQX is the leverage it offers to gold, as every $100 added to an ounce of
the monetary metal moves its operating profit margins up meaningful percentages. However,
Greenstone is now close to completion and
that’s another real catalyst for higher share
prices, so there’s now a second reason to like
this stock as a trade on gold. Its bottom line
financial results don’t justify a U$5 share price
yet, but they will once Greenstone is online
and if gold moves up, U$10 may start looking
cheap. I’m a happy holder of this speculative
position and while 3q23 didn’t blow any doors
off, it was a positive and constructive quarter
for the company. One to have at the top of
your shopping list if you think gold is going
over $2k and staying there.

Ero Copper (ERO.to) 3q23 production and financials
Two weeks ago in IKN753 dated October 22nd 2023, we opened coverage of Ero Copper
(ERO.to) via the main fundies note “Ero Copper (ERO.to): A price drop and a potential entry
point”. That day saw a concise overview of company operations, a preview of its 3q23 earnings
report and a call to watch through the upcoming earnings, with a view to making a potential
bargain hunt purchase before its 4q23 production numbers and earnings were released early
next year. Here’s a small chunk of the conclusion in IKN753 by way of reminder:
“We expect the company to report reasonable, in-line numbers that are close to the
results seen in 1q23 and 2q23, but there won’t be many fireworks as they have
already guided for a slightly weak production quarter, with better to come in 4q23.”
We went in blind as ERO didn’t pre-announce and production or sales numbers, but that’s okay
and as expected, ERO.to reported its 3q23 last week last Thursday November 2nd (3). Our job
now is to check out the results and to do so, we do these things:
 Consider production and sales at its two working mine complexes, Caraiba (copper)
and Xavantina (gold)
 Make adjustments to expected 4q23 production and cost forecasts
 Consider revenues and earnings (all in US Dollars unless stated
 Do a quick update on the balance sheet position
 Then a couple of lines on its development pipeline and capex spend
 And wrap it all up with a brief discussion and conclusion
Sounds like a lot, but we’re going to get as concise as possible so without further ado…
Production and sales results
Caraiba: The ERO flagship operation, the Caraiba complex in Bahia State Brazil, made up of
the Pilar (underground), Vermelhos (underground) and Surubim (open pit) mines, had a slightly
light quarter. Below left we see the mined tonnage breakdown from the three mines, then
below right the total ore processed, 806,096mt
ERO: Mined tonnes at Caraiba
1000000
900000
800000
700000
600000
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
From there we note a slight drop in average
head grade to 1.46% Cu, though average
recovery (chart not included because it’s boring)
kept to the normal levels and in Q3, returned
91.6%. The result is this chart (right). We saw a
slightly lower level of production and sales than
expected, though we recognize that ERO had
been guiding lower for stope sequencing
reasons. Produced copper of 22.24m lbs (sales
almost exactly the same) were 2mlbs below our
estimate for the quarter. Average received price
of U$3.47/lb was slightly off our best guess of
U$3.55/lb, too. We knew C1 cash cost would be
higher due to the effect of the Brazilian Real's appreciation against the Northern Dollars and
11
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3
mt ERO: Tonnage mined/processed, per qtr
Surubim
Vermelhos
Pilar
source: company filings
959706 170726 841355 744384 495795 299355 666275 913646 032695
524108 527027 058547 845277 128048 690608
1000000
900000
800000
700000
600000
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3
mt
total mined tonnes
total ore processed
source: company filings
ERO: Copper production & sales, per qtr (Mlbs)
0.32 3.32 4.52 6.22 5.72 3.22 7.32 3.72 1.22 5.82 2.32 3.92 9.02 6.52 2.22 7.82
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
Mlbs Cu
Cu prod (lb)
Cu sales (lb)
source: company filings, IKN ests

that was U$1.82/lb. ERO recognized that forex change and now estimates a slightly higher
2023 cost profile than original guidance, assuming forex remains where it is for the rest of
2023. That puts our 4q24 estimate up to U$1.65/lb
It’s one of those “low side of acceptable” quarters at its main operation, but as you can also
see, Q4 is expected to be a good one and that was reaffirmed by the company in its 3q23
MD&A, We quote:
The Caraíba Operations are expected to produce 44,000 to 47,000 tonnes of copper in
concentrate in 2023. Copper production is expected to be strongest in the last quarter
of the year due to higher anticipated mined and processed copper grades.
Our guesstimate of 28.66m lbs as seen above would put the annual total at 45,000 tonnes (to
mix our measurements a bit) and the rough mid-point of ERO annual guidance. In other words,
and to sum up on Caraiba, we expected a light production quarter and got one, but we expect
ERO to pick up the slack as of this quarter and deliver better numbers in Q4 and then 2024.
Xavantina Meanwhile its other mine operation, the Xavantina gold mine in Mato Grosso, had a
great quarter and is promising more to come. The interesting bit is how ore mined and
processed continued to drop, rather than increase and while gold recoveries were slightly up on
recent quarters (and better than the anomalous Q2), they were basically in line:
Instead, the difference happened here:
ERO at Xavantina: Gold head grade
12
67.7 57.7 46.7 27.7 62.8 54.7 73.7 42.6 39.5 95.6 55.8
71.01
58.11 02.31
22 18.72
20
18
16
14
12 10
8
6
4
2
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3
ERO at Xavantina: Ore mined/processed, per qtr
70000
60000
50000
40000 30000
20000
10000
0
Au g/t
source: company filings
I was reasonably impressed by the increase in average head grade to 13.2 g/t Au in 2q23, so
the number reported by ERO this quarter, 18.72
g/t gold mill head grade, is a bit of an eye-popper.
A quick scan of the continued drop in
mined/processed ore per quarter compared to the
continued increased in delivered grade indicates
ERO is doing things its own way at Xavantina
these days and they’re doing it well.
As such, it’s worth an extended quote from the
3q23 MD&A on its updated guidance:
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3
mt ERO at Xavantina: gold recoveries
NB: Cut Down Y-Axis
ore mined (mt)
ore processed (mt)
source: company filings
%1.78 %6.98 %0.29 %4.59 %7.49 %6.89 %7.29 %3.09 %3.29 %6.19 %3.39 %7.09 %4.19 %6.48 %9.29
100%
95%
90%
85%
80% 75% 70%
65%
60%
55%
50%
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3
source: company filings
ERO at Xavantina: Gold production and sales, per qtr
6257 4838 5489 00101 02001 3599 5869 9777 3108 84401
70921
38501
79031
61901
75451 00061
20000
18000
16000
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
Au oz prod
Au oz sold
source: company filings, IKN ests

Due to the Xavantina Operations' strong year-to-date operating performance, the
Company is increasing its 2023 gold production guidance range to 55,000 to 59,000
ounces (originally 50,000 to 53,000 ounces). The Company is also reducing its full-
year C1 cash cost guidance for the Xavantina Operations to $375 to $475 (originally
$475 to $575) per ounce of gold produced and lowering its AISC guidance range to
$900 to $1,000 (from $1,000 to $1,100) per ounce of gold produced.
Impressive costs, ERO has a tidy little cash cow on its hands. Here’s our cost tracking chart:
ERO at Xavantina: Cost per oz Au
13
186 806 346 066 147
019
2901 9611 5311 6901
649
1801
448 009
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
U$/oz Au
cash cost Au
AISC Au
source: company filings, IKN ests
For what it’s worth, our house guesses for the current 4q23 quarter of U$400/oz cash cost and
U$900/oz AISC would put the annual average at U$425/oz and U$943/oz respectively. We’re in
the ballpark and will now wait to see what the company delivers.
Revenues and financials: Putting the two parts of ERO’s current ops together, we know top line
revenues came to U$105.121m and we have exact numbers for Xavantina gold sales and
received gold price, so this chart estimates the breakdown of total revenues:
ERO: Revenues breakdown
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
U$m
Est total Caraiba revs
est total Xavatina revs
source: ERO data, IKN calcs and ests
As you can probably appreciate, the 3q23 total was very similar to the two previous quarters of
2023 but the mix changed, with Xavantina’s strong performance propping up top line revenues
as Caraiba returned a relatively soft quarter’s worth of cash due to that slight drop in
production and the lower price of copper. However, the 4q23 estimate shows we expect things
to get better quickly and all using conservative estimates of U$1,900/oz gold and U$3.50/lb
copper (ERO averages a little under quarterly spot).
Financial results: Which brings us to the P+L and today, we’ll review the Q3 numbers and
adjust our forecasts for 4q23. The first chart
(right) saw revenues come in at U$105.181m, ERO.to: Quarterly Earnings overview
slightly lower than our U$110.3m estimate.
Then COGS at U$69.706m was slightly higher
than our U$66m estimate. That combo made
gross profit come in at U$35.475m, rather
than our estimated margin of U$44m
Turning to the current Q4 and what to expect
in the next earnings, we estimate that the
forecast production pop at Caraiba and
999.06
256.05
18.22
17.25
801.04 804.93 574.53
4.06
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
source: company filings, IKN
srallod
fo
snoillim
revenues COGS Gross profit

continued out-performance at Xavantina will combine to produce top line revenues of
U$130.4m. Assuming COGS comes in roughly equal, that would imply a much improved gross
profit of just over U$60m, or 64c/share. We then take those gross profits and run those to the
operating profit numbers (below), as well at net. For 3q23, operating profit at U$19.89m is
some U$6m lower than our U$25.8m estimate (that's the slightly lower revenues and slightly
higher COGS). The 3q23 net profit got hit hard by a non-cash forex adjustment and while low
at U$2.811m, it's less important than the operating profit number.
ERO.to: Gross, operating and net profits, per qtr
14
69.17 76.17
04.75
31.17
08.74
15.04
39.6
45.43
88.22 58.02 98.91
04.14
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
U$m Gross profit
op profit
Net Income
source: ERO data, IKN
As for Q4, we forecast the U$60.4m gross profit number turns into an operating profit estimate
ERO.to: operating earnings per share, per qtr
of U$41.4m, or 44c/share (and our Net guesstimate of U$38m). That would put ERO today at a
forward of 9X operating earnings and that's not particularly cheap for a base metals producer,
but it doesn't take into account the future upside we should see as its next development project
Tucumã comes online in less than a year.
Bottom line to earnings: That was a lot of
numbers to say two basic things:
 3q23 revenues and earnings were slightly
light compared to our estimates and please
recall, our preview to Q3 supposed that
ERO.to wouldn’t sparkle much and there was
no need to buy it yet, no on these numbers.
 However, its 4q23 is shaping up well and even with our conservative average received
price estimates of U$3.50/lb copper and U$1,900/oz gold, they are set to add around
U$25m extra to the top line compared to the quarter just gone. That’s good money.
Now for a quick run around balance sheet items, as there’s only one thing that really stands
out. The asset overview chart (below left) and liabilities (below right) look reasonable and you
can see how ERO is currently ploughing dollars into v fixed asset development.
28.0 18.0
56.0
97.0
35.0
54.0
80.0
73.0
52.0 22.0 12.0
44.0
1.00
0.90
0.80
0.70
0.60
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
U$
source: company filings, IKN
ERO.to: Total Assets
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
ERO.to: Liabilities Breakdown per qtr
800
cash&eq Ac Rec 700
Inventory other current
fixed 600
500
400
300
200
100
0
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
LT liab
current liab

With liabilities, the big long-term position isn’t an issue and its current liabilities are still
dominated by accounts payable (U$101m of U$141m total). They’ve crept up a little but are still
easily manageable, so no biggie. However, what has changed is cash and working capital:
ERO.to: Cash and ST
ERO has its revolving loan facility to tap and hasn’t done so yet, also its spend on capex
projects was quicker than this desk expected in Q3. Those combine to drain cash more than
expected and our forecast for Q4 is a working capital at virtual zero if ERO doesn’t draw on its
revolver…BUT, that revolving loan has a cool U$150m available and that, along with cash flow,
will see the company through this current high cash drain period no problems. Once the
Tucumã spend is done, cash will climb again.
The bottom line to balance sheet: Slightly more fragile than this desk expected, but that’s
largely due to the accelerated spend and with its ample line of credit unused, ERO has zero
liquidity issues. No problems here.
Other projects: Before we wrap up, a couple of lines on three development projects and the
new project added to the ERO pipeline recently:
1) At Tucumã, ERO confirmed the news we gleaned from a recent company presentation and
we know the project is on time and
budget, with capex still pegged at
U$305m. However, according to data
in the FS and MD&A, it seems the
spend is around U$15m ahead of
schedule, something that helps
explain the sharper drop in treasury in
Q3 than expected. The chart (right) is
unchanged from the last showing and
the company expects first production
mid-2024.
2) The deep shaft being sunk at
Caraiba (Pilar) continues on track, with the company reporting milestones such as headframe
erection, winder installed and “several key underground installations” in place. This is a longer-
term project that should bear its fruits from 2025 onward.
3) Finally, ERO recently announced its new project, agreeing to option into the Furnas copper
Pará State, Brazil and owned by Brazil mining giant Vale. ERO has a spend-to-earn-in deal with
Vale over several years and can earn up to 60% of the project, which would then be put into
operation as a JV. Not a massive market mover for the time being, but it’s good to see ERO
adding to its development pipeline and not resting on its laurels.
15
584.12 833.44 716.15 143.45 805.26
475.48
556.731 450.911 921.031 384.564 188.924
897.953
204.713
746.632
393.081
6.78
05
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
$m ERO.to: Working capital
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150 100
50
0
-50
source: company filings
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
U$m
source company filings
Tucuma Project: Completion level 95% 100% 100%
85%
90%
80% 70%
70%
60%
45%
50%
40% 30%
30% 20%
20% 8%
10%
0%
Sep 30th Dec 31st March June oct 19th 4q23est 1q24est 2q24
2022 2022 31st 30th 2023
2023 2023 source: company filings, IKN ests

Discussion and conclusion
Going to keep this as brief as possible, because what we got from Ero Copper (ERO.to) in its
3q23 earnings report was basically what we expected. In fact, even our okay-not-great forecast
was somewhat better than reality and as such, it wasn’t a surprise to see the stock price do this
last week (below left just ERO, below right compares to the main copper ETF (COPX):
Back in IKN753 it was an C$18.94 stock, its lost a few extra pennies since then and with its Q3
now in the rear window, the “look don’t touch” call has been borne out. We put ERO.to on the
Stocks to Follow Watch List for precisely this reason, as the recent drop to under C$19 has
made for a value entry point but it could get cheaper still. Now, with the (in)famous Canadian
Tax Loss Selling period now upon us, we may see more pressure and while a lot will depend on
what the price of spot copper does from here to the
end of the year, our deep value bargain entry point
may eventually appear. This is one to watch, as its
combo of share price dip, growth in 2024 and what we
expect from the price of copper as the world economy
starts to pick up again next year and bring that
forecast copper supply deficit into sharp relief could
make this company at its current price a bargain for
the ages. Very likeable and while I wouldn’t blame
anyone from starting to build a position right now, it’s
one I’ll continue to monitor for the time being.
Stocks to Follow
Six losers from our current field of 16 names on the week (MAI.v, RIO.v, WEX.v, MARI.to,
SURG.v, ERO.to) and ten winners (ARG.to, SOLG.to, EQX, FSM, CTGO, NCAU.v, ALDE.v,
MIRL.cse, PAU.cse, MENE.v) with no unchanged stocks, so it was almost a good week and
would have been if it weren’t for Top Pick Minera Alamos losing another penny on drab market
action. Biggest percentage winners were Minera IRL (MIRL.cse up 50.0% but that doesn’t
count) and SolGold (SOLG.to up 12.9%), with Contango ORE also putting in a decent rebound
(CTGO up 9.5%). The sadsack losers are Western Exploration (WEX.v down 12.5%) and Surge
Copper (SURG.v down 10.5%)
We currently have 16 open positions on the list, four below our self-imposed maximum. Six are
in the green and ten are in the red. Must try harder.
16

company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.285 35.7% $0.75 first tgt, #1 idea
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Amerigo Res ARG.to hold C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.24 -8.8% cut size but still big Cu play
SolGold SOLG.to BUY C$0.265 19-Feb-23 C$0.175 -34.0% Cu in Ecuador, M&A tgt
Equinox Gold EQX STR BUY U$4.46 30-May-23 U$4.88 3.4% Au leverage trade, good Q3
Fortuna Silver FSM STR BUY U$2.92 13-Aug-23 U$3.02 3.4% New trade, want quick flip
Contango Ore CTGO BUY U$18.70 30-Jul-23 U$18.50 -1.1% Au dev play, production FY24
Newcore Gold NCAU.v SPEC BUY C$0.205 23-Oct-22 C$0.145 -29.3% Showing signs of life
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v BUY C$0.83 22-Apr-18 C$0.195 -77.1% Cheap on permit probs, appeal
SPECULATIVE TRADES
Western Explor. WEX.v SPEC BUY C$1.87 9-Apr-23 C$0.70 -62.6% Continues to drop, needs news
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v SPEC BUY C$0.72 16-May-21 C$0.81 12.5% drilling again
Minera IRL MIRL.cse avoid C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.01 -92.3% run into ground byCEO, AVOID
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
Marimaca Copper MARI.to WATCH C$3.65 26-May-23 C$3.83 4.9% Likely buy, want cheap entry
Surge Copper SURG.v WATCH C$0.11 18-Jun-23 C$0.085 -22.7% tinycap Cu in BC Canada
Provenance Gold PAU.cse WATCH C$0.085 8-Oct-23 C$0.10 17.6% Idaho gold drill play
Ero Copper ERO.to WATCH C$18.94 22-Oct-23 C$18.50 -2.3% High quality Cu producer
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.63 6-Dec-20 C$0.305 -51.6% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2023 date closed close price
Altiplano Metals APN.v jan'23 C$0.31 17-Sep-21 C$0.17 -45.2% delayed and will dilute soon
Western Copper WRN.to mar'23 C$2.02 13-Nov-22 C$2.32 14.9% sold on reduced M&A prob.
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v may'23 C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$1.75 -43.0% Closing on legal action news
Amerigo Res ARG.to may'23 C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.48 8.8% sold 20% to raise cash
Amerigo Res ARG.to oct'23 C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.21 -11.0% sold 10% raise to cash
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v oct'23 C$0.265 25-Apr-21 C$0.12 -54.7% sold raise to cash
Faraday Copper FDY.to oct'23 C$0.79 26-Mar-23 C$0.68 -11.4% sold raise to cash
AbraSilver Res. ABRA.v oct'23 C$0.36 4-Dec-22 C$0.28 -22.2% sold raise to cash
Orecap inv OCI.v oct'23 C$0.04 20-Nov-22 C$0.03 -25.0% sold raise to cash
2015 to 2022 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on some of our covered companies:
Fortuna Silver (FSM) (FVI.to): We remind readers that one of our two preferences for near-
term trades on gold leverage, Fortuna Silver (FSM) (FVI.to), reports its quarter this week.
Specifically and to quote the NR (4), they release “…unaudited financial statements and MD&A
for the third quarter 2023 on Wednesday, November 8, 2023, after market close.” Then, “A
conference call to discuss the financial and operational results will be held on Thursday,
November 9, 2023, at 9:00 a.m. Pacific time | 12:00 p.m. Eastern time.” Check the above link
for methods of joining the ConfCall, or use this link (5) to watch the live Webcast. So expect
plenty on FSM in IKN756 next weekend, as I’m looking to FSM to beat the street and impress a
half-aware generalist audience with big improvements to top line revenues, margin and strong
guidance for Q4 as well as 2024. Here below is a re-print of one of the charts we used in
IKN751 dated October 8th “Fortuna Silver (FSM) (FVI.to) delivers on 3q23 production” (yes, we
liked the numbers) and while I was and still am the first to admit the COGS number is a bit of a
best-guess, as we don’t know how the Séguéla ramp-up will be charged, what we can expect is
one of those quarters that prompts the market to re-rate a mining company.
17

FSM: Quarterly Earnings overview
18
8.711
5.66
3.15 5.021
1.27
5.84 6.261 2.511 3.74 9.891 6.041 3.85 3.281 8.811 5.36 9.761 3.531 5.23 6.661 9.141 7.42 7.461 7.831 0.62 7.571 2.531 4.04 4.851 5.621 9.13
532
561
07
752
571
28
300
275
250
225
200
175
150
125
100 75
50
25
0
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
U$m
revenues COGS Mine Op. Inc
source: company filings
In trading, FSM had a good week and a very good Friday, which is always pleasing to see in the
days before earnings. However, as the chart (right) shows it was no better or worse than the
GDXJ over the period. That leaves plenty of upside if my envisaged beat comes to pass.
Aldebaran (ALDE.v): Announced the re-start of drilling at Altar after the break to allow the
worst of the Andean winter weather to pass (6). They have 15,000m to 20,000m planned from
four rigs on site (currently) and in the words of CEO Black, “The goal of the 2023-2024 drill
program is to continue drilling 200 m step-outs to demonstrate the full extent of mineralization
at Altar, which will contribute to an updated Resource Estimate for the entire project planned in
H2-2024.” That’s fair enough. Expect an overlong wait for the assays as normal. In trading
ALDE continues to flip and flop around the 80c line. Lots of long-term value here and if the
combo of Argentina + copper + Tier 1 scale means anything, this stock will have its day in the
sun. The question is “when”.
Minera Alamos (MAI.v): Another week of quiet action and it only took one determined seller
to shove MAI down when the rest of the pack was going up late last week. Annoying. We await
the 3q23 financials, due out the third week of this month.
Contango ORE (CTGO): A decent enough rebound from those thinly traded lows we reported
last weekend, showing above all that the market is taking the same “probably nothing” view to
the legal action presented against Peak Gold (Manh Choh JV).
Amerigo Resources (ARG.to): As noted in
today’s intro, I was going to run the numbers on
ARG’s 3q23 this weekend but space and time
means I’m deferring until next weekend. There’s
also a question of urgency, ARG had already pre-
announced production and sales and its financials
didn’t contain any bad news as such (apart from a

bigger capex spend on those repairs than I’d guessed). The note on ARG can wait until next
weekend and as the price chart suggests, the market was happy enough about what it saw.
The Copper Basket
After forty-four weeks of 2023, The Copper Basket shows a loss of 20.21% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Solaris Res SLS.to 6.44 148.15 757.05 5.11 -20.7%
2 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.22 92.882 355.74 3.83 18.9%
3 Western Copper WRN.to 2.41 151.597 262.26 1.73 -28.2%
4 Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to 1.92 105.96 154.70 1.46 -24.0%
5 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.78 169.819 137.55 0.81 3.8%
6 Faraday Copper FDY.to 0.54 175.2 110.38 0.63 16.7%
7 Hot Chili HCH.v 0.78 119.455 109.90 0.92 17.9%
8 Oroco Res OCO.v 0.91 216.13 96.18 0.445 -51.1%
9 Regulus Res. REG.v 1.10 124.509 90.89 0.73 -33.6%
10 Pan Global Res PGZ.v 0.46 242.74 48.55 0.20 -56.5%
11 Kodiak Copper KDK.v 1.12 56.2 34.84 0.62 -44.6%
12 QC Copper QCCU.v 0.165 162.815 20.35 0.125 -24.2%
13 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.16 106.25 12.22 0.115 -28.1%
14 Atacama Copper ACOP.v 0.16 35.94 7.55 0.21 31.3%
15 Libero Copper LBC.v 0.155 119.58 3.59 0.03 -80.6%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg -20.21%
Another 0.5% shaved off the basket average and
The Copper Basket 2023, weekly evolution
another 2023 low for The Copper Basket. The 14%
headcount was rather benign, with six winners 10%
6%
(ASCU.to, ALDE.v, PGZ.v, FDY.to, KDK.v) and no
2%
fewer than five unchanged stocks (WRN.to, -2%
REG.v, QCCU.v, LBC.v, ACOP.v) countering just -6%
four losers (SLS.to, WRN.to, OCO.v, ECU.v), the -10%
-14%
problem was that two of those losers were big
-18%
chunks taken out of Oroco Resource Corp -22%
(OCO.v down 16.0%) and Solaris Resources
(SLS.to down 12.4%), with only the double
figure upmove in Pan Global (PGZ.v up 11.1%)
to counter them with any size.
The market for copper-the-metal was a little
better, too. Not wildly bullish and the world
tried and failed to make U$3.70/lb prices stick
at least three times, but up 3c is better than
down 3c and if I put on my optimist’s hat, I’d
say there’s some sort of baseline price in at
U$3.60/lb now. That may be a little too
optimistic on my part, though.
As to why the spot price is looking a little
more constructive, that’s probably the uptick
in demand from Chinese smelters and this
Platts (7) note entitled “Copper concentrate
TC/RC hits 6-month low on demand spurt, decline may slow” is the most informative report on
the scene seen by this desk. It begs a full read so you’re encouraged to use that link below, but
19
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2yluj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6gua ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3pes ht01 ht71 ht42 ts1tco ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5von
source: IKN calcs

here are some excerpts, starting with the entry paragraph:
Market participants expect the treatment and refining charges (TC/RC) of copper
concentrate are unlikely to fall much after they plunged 8% in October following a
surge in Chinese smelters’ demand for the fourth-quarter loading shipments coupled
with limited spot availability.
Platts Clean Copper Concentrate treatment charge fell to $82.20/mt CIF China Oct. 31,
down 14% from the peak on July 31, and the lowest since April 11.
Smelters have kept inventories at a low level and postponed buying due to high
financing costs and a rising TC/RC in Q3.
China’s copper cathode output increased by 18% year on year from January to
September but imports of copper concentrate only rose 7% over the same period.
At that point, Platts offers a nice visual of that data:
By way of a reminder, Treatment and Refining Charges (TC/RC) go down when the smelters
are fighting for supply, so reports of spot TC/RC in China is an indication that the downstream
market is getting tighter. It continues that way, script and another chart:
On the supply side, however, spot availability has yet to catch up due to lower
production at some major mines. The volume of blended cargoes has also declined
due to high financing costs and a bearish outlook, which added to smelters’ difficulties
in restocking prompt-arrival shipments.
However, the narrative also includes the caveat of a market that only needs to get over the
year-end re-stocking hump and then expects to go back to slackness. Here’s your final excerpt
from the Platts note (again, you’re better off reading the whole thing):
As many smelters have fulfilled their demand for 2023 loading cathode shipments,
some sources expected that the spot TC/RC would stabilize at current levels, as there
was no further momentum to drive TC/RC down in the short term.
The stabilization of TC/RC signals and new equilibrium in the Chinese market after this brief
period of concentrate under-supply. The reasons given for the supply delay are also interesting,
such as a two month delay of conc shipments from the Chilean Los Bronces mine because the
product’s water content was too high and it had to remain at port in Chile its humidity levels
had dropped. When you’re down to considering the output of a single mine as one of the
reasons downstream smelters are suddenly scrambling for concentrate, it illustrates the fragile
20

nature of the supply/demand balance in copper at the moment and how the historically low
inventory levels held at the futures market warehouses are important. And on that subject…
…last week saw October turn into November and that means we feature the long-term monthly
tracking charts for copper inventories this weekend, but we’re not going to dwell on them much
this time. There wasn’t much change in either quantities held or the percentage proportions in
each of the three official systems during the month and while there was a slight uptick in
overall stocks held, it’s not a biggie.
Key Cu inventory aggregate, 2012 to date
1000000
900000
800000
700000
600000
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
21
21.naJ ram yam luj pes von 31.naJ ram yam luj pes von 41.naj ram yam luj pes von 51.naj ram yam luj pes von 61.naj ram yam luj pes von 71.naj ram yam luj pes von 81
naj
ram yam luj pes von 91
naj
ram yam luj pes von 02
naj
ram yam luj pes von 12
naj
ram yam luj pes von 22
naj
ram yam luj pes von 32naj ram yam luj pes
Mt Cu
Comex
Shanghai
LME
source: Cochilco
Copper inventories: percentage held per exchange
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
21.naJ ram yam luj pes von 31.naJ ram yam luj pes von 41.naj ram yam luj pes von 51.naj ram yam luj pes von 61.naj ram yam luj pes von 71.naj ram yam luj pes von 81
naj
ram yam luj pes von 91
naj
ram yam luj pes von 02
naj
ram yam luj pes von 12
naj
ram yam luj pes von 22
naj
ram yam luj pes von 32naj ram yam luj pes
LME Shanghai Comex source: Cochilco
That’s the monthly reading done, time for the regular weekly look at the state of copper
inventories around the world, with data from Cochilco (which is back to normal and with up-to-
date SHFE information):
 A balanced scene overall, with small moves in the world’s three official futures systems
for copper largely cancelling themselves out. Come Friday, the total was down less than
200mt to close at 240,459 metric tonnes. Much quieter than the big drop we saw in
world inventories the week before last and reported in IKN754.
 The SHFE saw a small bounce from its massive drop of the week before last and saw
stocks rise by 4,108mt to close the week at 40,516mt.
 Another small down draft at the LME, with copper inventory dropping 2,300mt to close
Friday at 180,600mt. That’s slightly bullish, but it gets more interesting once we note
that Asia LME warehouses were drawn down by 14,100mt while the New Orleans roach
motel added 6,100mt (balance happening in Europe).
 Comex stocks continue to drop and this time, lost 1,996mt to close the week at
19,343mt. The trend has been set for many weeks, we saw a continuation.
The dedicated SHFE chart shows that we remain scraping the bottom of the barrel:
SHFE copper inventory levels, 2018 to 2023
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
MT Cu 2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
source: Cochilco data

As you were, but still bullish for copper prices over the longer term. Now for notes on a few
basket stocks:
Pan Global Resources (PGZ.v): There would be another line of the Stocks to Follow list with
green ink if I’d decided to include PGZ (and my stars, it could use some more green) but
instead we’ll stick to the plan for the time being and follow PGZ down here. PGZ did well last
week and with the C$6m financing now closed, the shares out count is up to 242.74m and
there are now 30.35m warrants outstanding, nearly all of those from the recent financing,
priced at 30c and with a three year shelf life. That new structure is likely to cause headwinds
and don’t be surprised to hear about instos clipping
their warrants in the near future, especially if they
can regularly get 20c or above for their shares once
out of escrow. This chart (right) shows the recent
price history of PGZ and how the company created
its own price weakness with that ill-conceived small
raising, then repaired the mistake. The bargain
hunters who jumped in at 15c are another near-
term headwind to consider.
Bottom line: I expect PGZ has found its price from
here to the end of the year. It will definitely be a
component of the 2024 Copper Basket and on a
personal level, I still think there’s a possible trade here. No rush to decide.
Oroco Resources (OCO.v): I really don’t feel like kicking OCO every single week and this is
the third segment in as many editions that has bad news on the company, so unless things fall
apart completely over the next five trading days, after this we’ll draw a line under the company
for a while. The fall-out from its okay-not-great PEA continued last week and the stock dropped
another 16% and while there were a couple of higher volume periods earlier in the week, the
drop is more about the complete lack of willing buyers than anything else. The world is fully
aware that OCO needs to raise cash and as such, in this buyers’ market for exploreco paper it’s
no surprise to see this type of sell-off. After all, if you were an insto with a position in OCO,
you’d swap your 50c share for a 40c share that came with a warrant, as well. }
To wrap up and as I also published it on Twitter the other day, I’ll wrap up with the brief
exchange I had with reader HK via mail this week. Here’s what he wrote in…
Hello Mark, I am wondering at what price Oroco could be worth buying? I would
imagine that point is going to come sometime after dilution due to a capital raise. Have
you given any thought to this?
Thanks, (name supplied)
…and here’s my reply:
Hi H________
At C$0.465 and 216.1m S/O, OCO is currently valued at C$100m. Essentially, that's
for its 85% (give or take) of Santo Tomas
The project is on its books at C$79m, it has no cash, so basically it's being valued at
36.5c/share
Let's assume the share count moves up to 240m S/O (216m today) once they've
raised capital, so that's 33c/share.
The question is whether the C$79m of work put in at Santo Tomas is worth more than
that (i.e. the value add that the company claims), equal to that or less than that (i.e.
less than the company assumes). At the current price deck, I have difficulty in
assigning a premium price to Santo Tomas. It'd be another story if/when copper trades
at U$5/lb, but at the moment it isn't there. So after sticking my thumb in the air and
taking a best eddycated guess, I'd say around 30c is fair value at constant copper, but
I wouldn't be a buyer until 20c shows. That price is possible in the future and very
possible if copper sinks.
22

Please don’t take those numbers mentioned, 33c or 30c
or 20c, as some kind of a price target in OCO because
they’re not. They are there to help frame my thinking
on the stock, no more or less and even if they become
reality, I highly doubt I’d step up and own any of this
company unless and until market circumstances change
significantly in its favour (and the price of spot copper is
only one of the variables)
Solaris Resources (SLS.to): On no news, SLS
suddenly dived lower last week as a large-ish holder
decided they didn’t want to hold any longer. News
from Ecuador on the transition to a new President
and what that might mean for mining has been scant
so far (see Regional Politics below), so this may just
be skittishness or a forced liquidation for other
reasons. However, my personal opinion on the
mediocre CSR at Warintza has never been a secret
and I don’t blame anyone for selling this stock. But
that’s just me.
Atacama Copper (ACOP.v): This stock is still under trading halt as the company goes
through the process to transform into a Mexico-focused exploreco by merging with privco TCP1,
as announced the week before last. But we had developments this week as week because on
Monday October 30th, ACOP published not one but two Maiden Resource Estimates for two of
the properties coming in with TCP1. They’re done in two separate NRs as well, with this one (8)
entitled, “Atacama Copper and TCP1 Announce a Maiden Resource Estimate for the Cristina
Project, Chihuahua Mexico” and this one (9) is entitled, “Atacama Copper and TCP1 Announce a
Maiden Resource Estimate for the Yecora Copper Project, Sonora Mexico.”
The Cristina Project in Chihuahua is a polymetallic deposit and the highlight bullet points of the
NR give us the basic parameters:
 Indicated resources of 17.5 Mt at 0.51 g/t gold, 33.8 g/t silver, 0.47% zinc, 0.19% lead and 0.04%
copper (1.33 g/t AuEq grade), for a contained 752,000 gold-equivalent ounces.
 Inferred resources of 19.0 Mt at 0.51 g/t gold, 27.5 g/t silver, 0.50% zinc, 0.19% lead and 0.05%
copper (1.27 g/t AuEq grade), for a contained 777,000 gold-equivalent ounces.
 The resource estimate is based on 220 diamond drill holes completed between 2010 and 2022
for approximately 70,000 m of drilling in total.
 Preliminary metallurgical test work suggests recoveries into concentrate of 75-85% for gold, 85-
95% for silver, 80-90% for zinc and lead, and 70-80% for Cu.
As those numbers give an all-categories contained gold amount of a tad under 600k oz, and the
total AuEq is 1.53m oz, then add in the assumed recoveries, it suggests this is more silver with
gold than gold with silver.
As for Yecora, it happens to be located next door to Minera Alamos (MAI.v) Santana (so we
know where that one is) and here are the bullet points from its NR:
 Indicated resources of 25.3 Mt at 0.30% copper, 28.5 g/t silver, and 749 ppm molybdenum
(0.79% CuEq grade), for a contained 444 Mlb of Cu-equivalent.
 Inferred resources of 11.2 Mt at 0.30% copper, 24.2 g/t silver, and 831 ppm molybdenum
(0.78% CuEq grade), for a contained 193 Mlb of Cu-equivalent.
 The resource estimate is based on 34 diamond drill holes and 8 reverse circulation drill holes
completed between 2014 and 2022 for 14,006 m of drilling in total.
 Preliminary metallurgical test work projected a copper concentrate grade of 20-25% with a
recovery of approximately 90% and containing 75 to 85% of the silver. The molybdenum
concentrate grade was projected to be 50-55% with a recovery of 80 to 90%. Future testing
will determine the feasibility of recovering lead and zinc to a separate concentrate, and thus
23

zinc and lead were not included in the current resource estimate.
Looks somewhat small to this deak and when you consider there’s some sort of land staking
issue as well…
The resulting pit shells extend onto lands where no mineral title is held, and which have not been
released for staking by the Mexican government. Approximately 40% of the estimated resource is
dependent on the government opening the lands for staking, and on the land being acquired by
TCP1 to allow the pit limits to extend into these lands. There can be no assurance that the
government will re-open the lands for staking, or that the lands will either be acquired by TCP1, or
an agreement negotiated with the eventual concession holder.
…on due consideration it’s may not be wise to expect this project as a near-term catalyst.
There’s also another thing about “New ACOP” that struck me as odd and I’m glad I’m not the
only one who thought so, as Reader RH wrote in and among other things, used slightly more
diplomatic language to state what I was thinking on Monday morning:
“I am suspicious of the timing of their recently announced combo with TCP1 last week,
and then announcing mineral resource estimates yesterday on the targeted Mexican
projects. Surely this material information should have
been previously disclosed?”
Agreed, and especially so considering the way ACOP
shares suddenly woke up from a long slumber a few
weeks ago and started running higher on no news. For
sure the recent halt means we’re all in the same boat
now, but we cannot say the same thing for the run-up to
this transformative deal. It strikes me as a bit grubby
and it’s going to be interesting to see what happens to
the stock price once the halt comes off.
The Producer Basket
After 44 weeks of 2023, the Producer Basket shows a gain of 6.63% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 47.20 799 31.18 39.02 -17.3%
2 Barrick GOLD 17.18 1761.54 29.03 16.48 -4.1%
3 Agnico Eagle AEM 51.99 488.9 24.18 49.46 -4.9%
4 Wheaton PM WPM 39.08 451.963 20.29 44.90 14.9%
5 Kinross Gold KGC 4.09 1256.1 6.97 5.55 35.7%
6 Alamos Gold AGI 10.11 393.1 5.28 13.43 32.8%
7 B2Gold BTG 3.57 1074.567 3.60 3.35 -6.2%
8 Hecla Mining GFI 5.56 610.491 2.65 4.34 -21.9%
9 Eldorado Gold EGO 8.36 185.73 2.08 11.20 34.0%
10 Wesdome Gold WDOFF 5.53 147.526 0.84 5.71 3.3%
All prices and stock quotes in U$ Port. avg 6.63%
And suddenly we’re winning. All ten of our basket
components were winners on the week, from the
smallest move in Newmont (NEM up 0.1%) to the
best gains in Alamos (AGI up 4.8%), Hecla (HL up
4.8%) and Kinross (KGC up 4.5%). But as the chart
(right) shows, it took until Friday and that
benevolent jobs report for the sector to catch a bid
and on that day, both GDX and GDXJ popped
24

higher even as gold bullion dropped a little (GLD down 0.7% on the week).
The result of all that is a basket that’s moved into a clear lead against the GDX benchmark for
the first time this year, which allows a little more optimism that our record of beating the street
in The Producer Basket might remain intact for a fourth successive year (I think). We have a
3.8% lead and the plan is to keep it.
The 2023 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
comparative to GDX control
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
Wesdome (WDOFF) (WDO.to): We remind readers that one of the more interesting Tier 2
stocks our there reports its quarter post-close this coming Wednesday, November 8th. So watch
out for that and if you’re nerdy enough, keep a space in your Thursday for the ConfCall
scheduled for 10am Nov 9th. Register here (10) to participate, or do like me and simply watch
the webcast via this link (11).
Barrick (GOLD) (ABX.to): A remarkably subdued response to the Barrick 3q23 financials last
week, which dropped pre-open on Thursday (12) and
caused hardly a ruffle in the share price that day, either
to the company or compared with the GDX benchmark
(right). GOLD had opened a bit of a lead on peers in the
run-up to earnings and that evaporated on the Friday
as seen, but overall Bristow and Thornton must have
been pleased to get over this potential roadbump
without much reaction. As for the results, they were
again an exercise in Jam Tomorrow as the company
promised better production in Q4 (and implicitly 2024),
but to its credit costs have improved compared to 2q23
and this desk came away with a reasonable take on the
numbers though admittedly, I didn’t spend that much
time on them and mostly used the Somebody Else’s Problem principle.
Eldorado Gold (EGO) (ELD.to): We’ve done a lot on EGO recently, most of all the more
extended look at the stock in the main fundies section of IKN754 last week, “Eldorado Gold
(EGO) (ELD.to): An improving Tier 2 producer”, so a look a the ten-day chart shows…
…that the good times continued to roll since that note was published. In fact, I was particularly
25
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2yluj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6gua ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3pes ht01 ht71 ht42 ts1tco ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5von
The 2023 Producer Basket: Percentage difference
between GDX benchmark & basket (negative = IKN ahead)
4.0%
ikn 3.0%
gdx control 2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
-4.0%
source: NYSE, IKN calcs -5.0%
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2yluj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6gua ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3pes ht01 ht71 ht42 ts1tco ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5von
source: IKN calcs, NYSE data

impressed in the way it shows relative strength early in the week and got plenty of buyers at
prices just under U$11. For more on EGO and a few lines on one of the aspects I missed out in
last week’s note, namely its Peralta Hill project in Greece, please see ‘Market Watching’ below
where’s there’s room to do the subject justice.
The TinyCaps List
After 44 weeks of 2023, the TinyCaps show a gain of 18.95% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Aurelius Min AUL.v 0.07 49.787 1.00 0.02 -71.4%
Coast Copper COCO.v 0.045 64.001 2.88 0.045 0.0%
District Metals DMX.v 0.075 86.891 16.51 0.19 153.3%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.13 69.962 5.60 0.08 -38.5%
Manitou Gold MTU.v 0.02 344.568 18.95 0.055 175.0%
Nine Mile Metals NINE.cse 0.29 57.025 3.42 0.06 -79.3%
Palamina Corp PA.v 0.08 65.285 6.53 0.10 25.0%
Precipitate Gold PRG.v 0.075 130.367 7.82 0.06 -20.0%
South Star STS.v 0.55 40.129 31.30 0.78 41.8%
Viva Gold VAU.v 0.14 106.721 15.47 0.145 3.6%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 18.95%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $20m. They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a
little and allowed sub-U$20m market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, but it was a particularly depressing exercise to trawl through the whole of the TSXV and find companies
that are small enough, but with life in them. The vast majority of sub-$20m stocks are broken stocks, either
traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2023. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
The average coughs and splutters its way toward the TinyCaps, 2023 weekly tracker
50%
end of the year and a badly needed refresh of 45%
names. Just two week-over-week winners (LMS.v, 40%
35%
VAU.v) and two losers (DMX.v, PA.v), all the others
30%
were unchanged and aside from a dead cat bounce 25%
20%
move in Latin Metals (LMS.v up 23.1%), all was
15%
quiet. 10%
5%
0%
District Metals (DMX.v): DMX has had a good
year and is up on the prospects of Sweden (or
Scandinavia in general) opening up to the concept of
exploration and development of uranium prospects.
All the same, the stock price seems to have hit a
ceiling and these days, 20c and 21c is being sold. But
it’d be unfair to criticize too heavily, that chart is a lot
healthier than the vast majority of microcap juniors in
2023 and holders should surely be happy so far.
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of
recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with market
caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the
26
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2yluj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6gua ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3pes ht01 ht71 ht42 ts1tco ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5von
source: IKN calcs, TSX data

wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, at the moment
both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
Argentina Presidential election: Two weeks to go
Here’s a screenshot of the Wikipedia Spanish page that’s keeping a track of the second round
run-off opinion polls published to date and, as you can probably see, you can pick your
favourite depending on which poll you prefer to believe:
We could go into the weeds on these polls and start pulling them apart, but the real world
bottom line is “It’s Tight” and that’s not about to change, no matter how many words I spill on
the subject this weekend. So enough of that and, instead, let’s go with a report in Argentina’s
newspaper of record, La Nacion, last Wednesday (though dated Thursday on the screenshot)
that captures the main story of last week’s campaign (13):
That says, “Javier Milei has lowered his profile and “Macrism” (i.e. Macri politics) has taken a
leadership role in the campaign that’s now making the Libertarians uncomfortable.” The article
then goes on to explain that since Milei beat the Macri candidate Patricia Bullrich, causing
Macri’s JxC coalition to fracture into pieces (see last weekend) and Macri to throw his weight
behind Javier Milei in no uncertain terms, the Libertarian candidate has suspended his public
appearances (where he typically appears brandishing a chain saw to symbolize his plans to
dismantle the current political system), is appearing in fewer TV slots and is being guided by
Macri’s image minders. Also that Macri has told him to “stop talking and acting crazy” in public
and show a more sober public image, one that will allow him to be taken more seriously. And,
of course, not another word out of his mouth about his disdain for Pope Francisco. Long story
short, we assumed Milei would move to the centre during the run-off in order to capture
27

floating voters and he knows, and Macri knows, and we know that his Libertarian baseline can
feel as uncomfortable as they like about it, but they’re still guaranteed to turn up on the 19th
and vote for their man. The fact that he’s decided on allowing Macris’ slick political machine to
take over and do a bit of image grooming is probably a good thing for his chances, too.
For what it’s worth, I still believe a Massa victory is the most likely eventual scenario. However,
I’m not against changing my mind so before making a final call, let’s see how the last two
weeks of the campaign go, especially next Sunday evening November 12th and the live TV
debate between the two candidates (a big moment, as fence-sitters in Argentina are typically
swayed one way or the other by the final run-off debate). Meanwhile and for those who still
need reassurance that any eventual Massa victory will be constructive for the mining sector, last
week the Secretary (i.e. Minister) of mining for the nation, Fernanda Ávila, gave this interview
(14) to a provincial radio station in her home town (she has just won election to represent
Catamarca province in Congress) and along the way, said this about mining (translated):
“The Minister of the Economy Sergio Massa has said on many occasions that mining is
one of the pillars of development in our country, one of Argentina’s growth motors and
of course, there’s a long road still to travel. Mining development in Argentina is still
early stage, with only 30 years of development. But there’s an incredible window of
opportunity in the transition to green energy, where mining has a central role. And on
that score Catamarca in particular has the minerals that are key for this energy
transition.”
Nothing really new there, but good in this election campaign period to remember that the anti-
mining stance taken by Massa in previous years (e.g. when member of Congress for Tigre,
North Buenos Aires, where enviro-progressive Lefty views win votes) is now a thing of the past
and this political animal is very adept at changing his stripes. A Massa presidency would both
welcome and encourage investment in the mining sector, particularly any big ticker copper or
lithium project.
The Cobre Panama protests
The way this desk found its self adding extra info…then more updates, then a final stop-press
at the end of last week’s explainer on what was happening around the Cobre Panama mine in
the eponymous country, owned by First Quantum (FM.to), is a clue to how quickly the story
was developing last weekend. Between then and now the issue exploded into big news and
made international headlines, not just in mining trade papers and not just in Spanish (15).
That’s the sign of a mining story that has spilled over into the mainstream media and when
those happen, people with preconceived ideas about the industry are quick to join in with any
criticizing mob. FM.to had a very rocky ride in the markets last week as a result but, when the
country’s parliament decided to press ahead with the emergency moratorium law project as
proposed by President Cortizo last weekend (see IKN754) but drop plans to rescind the recently
signed contract between Cobre Panama and the State, the share price rebounded.
That contract isn’t quite out of the woods as yet, neither is the social protesting because at
some time this week the Panama Supreme Court has to rule on whether the FM contract is
constitutional. It’s highly unlikely (but never impossible, this is LatAm) that the rule the contract
null and that decision will likely spark more protests in the country, the crowd whipped up by a
conglomeration of interest groups and those who would be President come May next year. In
all likelihood the situation will eventually calm around Cobre Panama but once the dust settles,
expect two things:
1) Some type of re-negotiation on the contract, with FM giving more to the State (in
return for some peace and quiet).
2) A Panama with a newly minted reputation for CSR risk.
We’ll also be left with a country that awards no new mining concessions for the foreseeable
future, which won’t help its image. But aside that, no lasting damage will be done to Cobre
Panama assuming the Supreme Court ruling this coming week goes its way. Those with the
required patience should consider this stock at bargain levels, not matter what longer-term deal
gets cut.
28

Ecuador is quiet
Proclaim this among the nations:
Prepare a war; rouse the mighty men!
Let all the soldiers draw near, let them come up!
Joel 3: 9
We now have a date for the handover of power in Ecuador and Guillermo Lasso will hand over
the baton to President-Elect Daniel Noboa on December 1st (though the Congress is due to re-
start this month). The transition period toward the new Noboa government as begun in Ecuador
and this week, the President-Elect (while on a semi-official/semi-vacation trip to Spain)
announced his choices for the main posts in his upcoming cabinet of ministries (but no Minister
of Non-Renewable Natural Resources or Mining Minister yet). Check out the names in this
Spanish language report (16) if you care enough, but it’s doubtful you’ll know many of the
names unless you’ve lived in the country a while. Suffice to say here that Noboa was vocal
about how his cabinet will be 50/50 women and men and nobody will be re-appointed from the
outgoing Lasso government. He’s drawing a line under the past and that’s not a bad thing, also
the general comment about his choices for Minster is that he’s putting together a “Cabinet of
Technocrats”, again not bad because it at least implies they’ll have a brain and an education.
However, we’re still waiting on word of Noboa’s plan for the mining sector. The main policy
decision will be whether to confront the CONAIE position of putting a moratorium on the sector
and as Noboa is very pro-biz, it would be a big surprise to see him taking a stand against
miners. Then again, this is Ecuador and anything can happen in the Mini Basket Case country.
Watching brief.
Peru getting ready to shock
The highly unpopular Dina Boluarte government has now watched from the sidelines and done
very little for almost a year and in the last two weeks, has been forced to report that Peru is
now officially in recession. She is (and they are) now under pressure to DO SOMETHING and to
that, her FinMin and her Prime Minister have been out making noises in public about an
imminent stimulus package that includes the mining industry. FinMin Alex Contreras last week
announced a "Investment jump-start" plan (the exact term used in Peru is "Shock De
Inversiones") is about to be unveiled in order to attract FDI to the country and offer cheap
credit to small and medium-scale businesses. Inflation peaked at 8.5% annual and has dropped
to +4.4%, which according to the FinMin leaves space to use a financial stimulus strategy and
the government expects to generate around 18 Billion Soles (approx U$4.8Bn) in new
investment and GDP growth. We don't know the details of this stimulus plan yet yet, but the
government has stated on several occasions that the mining sector will be one of the central
roles in this plan so one can only assume there will be a push to move some big projects
forward. Indeed, while speaking at the IMARC conference in Australia this week as part of a
fairly large Peruvian delegation, Prime Minister Oscar Vera said that his government “welcomes
FDI with open arms”, that “Peru is back” after the years of antagonism under (still jailed) ex-
President Pedro Castillo and that they were working hard to clear bureaucratic bottlenecks and
making paperwork and those key (mining) permits quicker and easier to obtain (17) (18).
Market Watching
Mailbag on Eldorado Gold (EGO) (ELD.to) at Perama Hill
Further to last week’s more detailed look at Eldorado Gold (EGO) (ELD.to) as the main fundies
focus of the week, A Reader (the kind that prefers even their initials to be left unmentioned)
wrote in, said they liked the piece but that I’d “missed the best part”. Here are a couple of
excerpts from the mail received:
“…the Perama Hill project could be the best asset in the company as there is fantastic
geological upside to the almost no-strip high grade pit from the now out-of-date prior
study.”
And…
29

“One of the reasons for the additional equity raise…was to advance this project. Will be
eager to hear their progress in 2024 with the community and permitting, there is a
multi-year window now where Greece will remain one of the most business friendly
jurisdictions in Europe.”
All this is true. So after jogging my own memory, I wrote back and admitted that I’d forgotten
all about Perama Hill and had decided to focus on Skouries as the example of development
pipeline at the company. But once I’d found an old PDF presentation on the project (check it
out here (19), well worth your time) and opened it, the project came back to mind and long
story short, I realized a great asset had slipped my mind completely to the point where it hadn’t
even registered when seeing the name and its brief write-up in the latest MD&A.
Perama Hill was put on Care & Maintenance in 2016, mostly due to the Greek government at
the time going Left wing and getting a case of anti-mining fever. With permits “delayed” (i.e.
“we’re not giving you the permits so stop asking”) and the local community turned against
mining by NGO influences, Perama Hill was going nowhere and EGO understood that. Seven
years on, the new government in Greece is more welcoming to mining projects and we have
solid evidence of that, with Skouries out of the penalty box and now under construction.
There’s still surely CSR work to do in order to get more locals onside, but the received mail
noting that at least some of the top-up equity placement cash being earmarked for this
development suggests EGO now has active plans and would like to take it out the deep freeze.
That’s not surprising when you look at the stats and figures. Here are a couple of items lifted
from that 2016 presentation, starting with the reserve/resource:
Almost a million ounces P+P reserve, close to double that if we include M+I and inferred, and a
useful little silver kicker. The average grade of 3.13 g/t gold P+P is
very good too, especially when one realizes that this is an open pit
project. That aspect gets even better when we consider some of
the criteria in the old mine plan (right).
It would use standard leaching technology and a Carbon In Leach
(CIL) extraction from pregnant solution and from a modest sized
mine that would extract around 3,500tpd. But what stands out is
the strip rate of a mere 0.28X over life of mine, thanks to the very
favourable location of mineralization at surface. I’ve deliberately
omitted the economic projections of the 2016 mine plan because
they live in a past long gone, but with average annual production
of 106k oz Au and a small silver kicker, that low strip and high
grade would still make for an extremely profitable operation at
current gold prices (and you can play with an Excel page in your
own time, but ballparking a U$1,000/oz margin on 100k oz gold
per year over eight years is a fair place to start working out what Perama Hill could do for EGO
one fine day).
This isn’t THE reason to follow, or even buy EGO at this point; as far as I’m concerned, its
30

current operations bring plenty of value to the table, its recent results point to better and more
profitable times ahead (see last week) and in Skouries, they have the obvious re-rate vehicle as
2024 becomes 2025. However, this longer than average update on EGO in which we focus on
just one of its exploration assets would exist if it weren’t for my rather gross oversight while
writing up on the company in IKN754; Perama Hill is another reason to give EGO more of your
DD time and potentially part of your PM miner’s portfolio allocation and any news on its
development in 2024 will be most interesting to note. Thanks once again to my mailer friend,
you’ve saved me from being ignorant for longer than would have been necessary.
SilverCrest Metals (SILV) (SIL.to) also reports next week
It’s not on our formal radar at the moment, but we’ve done plenty of recent work on the stock,
e.g. the main note in IKN745 dated August 27th “SilverCrest Metals Inc (SILV) (SIL.to):
Considering the financials”, as well as other recent mentions, e.g. IKN749 when I stated that
“It’s a decent story and I may be passing on a winner”, but on balance called it a Market
Perform and preferred a trade in Equinox (EQX) or Fortuna Silver (FSM) (FVI.to) as leverage
plays on the gold market. As such, SilverCrest Metals (SILV) (SIL.to) deserves a mention today
as, at some time between the close on Wednesday
8th and the open on Thursday 9th, it is also due to
drop its 3q23 financials. What we do know for certain
is that (and we quote), “A conference call to discuss
the Company’s Q3, 2023 operational and financial
results will be held Thursday November 9, 2023 at
8:00 a.m. PT / 11:00 a.m. ET” and if you want to
join in on that, the details are on this link (20).
It’s fair to say that this desk’s theory of preferring
Fortuna Silver over SILV at this juncture gets put to
the test this coming week, with both companies
reporting at virtually the same time. We won’t shrink
from the comparatives and you’ll get a win/lose-draw
chart next weekend to show their relative performances…and I’ll probably throw EQX in the
mix, as well. For today we’ll go with the five-day chart of the three stocks and as you can see,
EQX took a little advantage over the other two as it reported and pleased the market last week
(see above), while FSM and SILV traded in near lockstep. The game’s afoot.
Goldshore Resources (GSHR.v) runs a placement
Previously on the Watch List, Goldshore Resources (GSHR.v) last week announced (21) a
C$3.75m placement, including a $3m commitment from a Vancouver-based insto SAF (headed
by Frank Giustra protégé Brian Paes-Braga) by selling 37.5m units at 10c (unit = share + full
warrant at 13c with a three year shelf life). We dropped GSHR from the Watch List, at the end
of July (announced in IKN741) after reporting on its almighty 43-101 snafu in the Market
Watching section of IKN739 dated July 16th,
“Goldshore Resources (GSHR.v) scores an own-goal”.
Since then it’s kept on dropping and on news of this
dilutive placement, dropped to a Friday close of 9c.
The NR last week also announced that the Wesdome
(WDO.to) board nomination was stepping down and
in his place, a nominee is coming in from new
strategic partner SAF. GSHR went on to announce
that with this cash injection the company would be
funded “through 2025” (unlikely to mean to the end
of 2025) and the strategy would be to review “….the
current PEA in an effort to rescope (sic) and optimize
the Moss Gold Project under multiple operational and economic parameters.” In other words,
they’re not going to drill any more, instead they’re going to go into cheap mode for the next
year and a half and promote what they have.
31

With a pro-forma 243m shares out and an implied market cap of C$21.9m (around U$16,4m)
this weekend, you’re bound to hear GSHR using the “leverage to gold” argument in 2024
considering it has 6.0m oz of gold in 43-101 inferred category. It may just work too, we’re also
bound to see the company being heavily promoted by The Usual Suspects. If gold turns and
runs, those tolerant to high risk (and placing your cash with dubious, self-serving executives)
may want to consider GSHR as a trade in the year to come. Definitely not for me any longer,
life’s too short to sponsor the lifestyles of mediocre management teams.
Conclusion
IKN755 is done, we end with some brief bullet points:
 Three sets of 3q23 earnings reports will be high on our list this coming week, as
Fortuna Silver (FSM) (FVI.to), Wesdome Gold (WDO.to) (WDOFF) and SilverCrest
Metals (SILV) (SIL.to) are all capable of showing things that the market appreciates. I
still think FSM will be the pick of the bunch and a trade to hold through on Tuesday
evening.
 I like Equinox (EQX) from here and would really like it if gold runs over U$2.000/oz.
The place to go for leverage to gold, which means it’s also the place to avoid for that
leverage if gold sinks. We shall see.
 Copper shows signs of life last week, I’ll be happy to see it run against my concerns
and get back up to the U$3.80/lb level between now and the end of the year. Wouldn’t
mind being wrong on that call at all.
 Sergio Massa is still favourite for the big job in Argentina, but next Sunday also sees the
main event live TV debate between him and Milei. There’s a lot to play for and I’ll be
glued to my screen watching it, so expect some kind of preliminary report on the event
next weekend (as well as that deferred Amerigo note).
 Looking forward to getting on an international flight with a 21 month old toddler next
month. Any tips or suggestions very welcome.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stock is Minera Alamos (MAI.v). Flash
updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best wishes, Mark
32

Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/11/comments-on-october-employment-report.html
(2) https://www.equinoxgold.com/news/equinox-gold-reports-third-quarter-2023-financial-and-operating-results-delivers-
strongest-third-quarter-on-record-for-production-revenue-and-ebitda/
(3) https://erocopper.com/news/ero-copper-reports-third-quarter-2023-operating-and-financial-results/
(4) https://www.webcaster4.com/Webcast/Page/1696/49330
(5) https://fortunasilver.com/investors/news/fortuna-to-release-third-quarter-2023-financial-results-on-november-8-2023-
conference-call-at-12-p.m-eastern-time-on-november-9/
(6) https://aldebaranresources.com/news-releases/2023/aldebaran-announces-commencement-of-2023-2024-drill-
program-at-altar/
(7) https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/copper-concentrate-tc-rc-hits-6-month-low-on-demand-spurt-decline-may-
slow/
(8) https://atacamacopper.ca/news/atacama-copper-and-tcp1-announce-a-maiden-resource-estimate-for-the-cristina-
project-chihuahua-mexico/
(9) https://atacamacopper.ca/news/atacama-copper-and-tcp1-announce-a-maiden-resource-estimate-for-the-yecora-
copper-project-sonora-mexico/
(10) https://register.vevent.com/register/BI342316b2dae64c7fa72b789b4ffcb8a1
(11) https://edge.media-server.com/mmc/p/4bu4ty2t
(12) https://www.barrick.com/English/news/news-details/2023/q3-2023-results/default.aspx
(13) https://www.lanacion.com.ar/politica/javier-milei-bajo-su-perfil-y-pro-tomo-un-protagonismo-en-la-campana-que-
ahora-incomoda-a-los-nid01112023/
(14) https://www.radionacional.com.ar/massa-dijo-que-la-mineria-es-uno-de-los-pilares-de-desarrollo-de-argentina/
(15) https://www.tvn-2.com/nacionales/protestas-dejarian-pacificas-si-corte-declara-constitucional-contrato-
minero_1_2088220.html
(16) https://www.infobae.com/america/america-latina/2023/10/30/daniel-noboa-define-su-gabinete-estos-son-los-
ministros-confirmados/
(17) https://cajamarcaopina.com/2023/11/03/mef-alista-un-shock-de-inversiones-privadas-para-impulsar-
economia/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=mef-alista-un-shock-de-inversiones-privadas-para-
impulsar-economia
(18) https://www.rumbominero.com/peru/noticias/mineria/ministro-vera-en-imarc-2023/
(19) https://s2.q4cdn.com › 08-Perama-Hill-final-web
(20) https://www.silvercrestmetals.com/news/index.php?content_id=525
(21) https://goldshoreresources.com/goldshore-announces-new-strategic-partner-and-non-brokered-private-placement-
of-3-75-million-to-fully-fund-development-through-2025/
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2022
Closed in 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
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Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
Goldshore Res GSHR.v Nov'22 C$0.18 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 88.9% Quick profit taken
Palamina Corp PA.v Dec'22 C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.08 -72.9% Clear-out of underperformer
Pure Gold PGM.h Dec'22 C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.015 -89.3% tiny trade on vh risk, went Ch11
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Set-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
36