IKN #754Premium

The IKN Weekly
Week 754, October 29th 2023
Contents
This Week: Erratum, In Today’s Edition, Copper thoughts (rather than gold).
Fundamental Analysis: Eldorado Gold (EGO) (ELD.to): An improving Tier 2 producer.
Stocks to Follow: Ero Copper (ERO.to), Libero Copper (LBC.v), Rugby Resources (RUG.v),
Minera Alamos (MAI.v), SolGold (SOLG.to), Provenance Gold (PAU.cse), Contango ORE (CTGO),
Equinox Gold (EQX), Western Exploration (WEX.v), Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v), Amerigo (ARG.to).
The Copper Basket: Overview, Atacama Copper (ACOP.v), Pan Global Resources (PGZ.v),
Oroco Resources (OCO.v).
Producer Basket: Overview, Newmont (NEM) and Barrick (GOLD).
The TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Latin Metals (LMS.v), Viva Gold (VAU.v), South Star (STS.v).
Regional Politics: Hurricane Otis and a Mining conference, Burkina Faso raises mining
royalties, Argentina Presidential election fall-out, Panama and the Cobre Panama protests.
Market Watching: Revival Gold (RVG.v) is one of many.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
Erratum
In last week’s edition, I wrote that the Provenance Gold (PAU.cse) Eldorado gold project was
located in Idaho, USA. That is incorrect (and I knew better, as seen in our original coverage on
the stock. In fact Eldorado is located next door to Idaho in Malheur County, Eastern Oregon.
This is an issue because in general terms Oregon has a worse reputation for allowing (formal)
mining to take place and a bit of a reputation for foot-dragging on permitting, but in this case
the location of Malheur County is a big help, as it’s one of the few real mining enclaves of the
State and amenable to our activity of focus. I apologise for the unforced error and thank those
readers who alerted me to the mistake, kind of you to have waded through my typos and to
have cared enough to write it, it’s appreciated this end.
In Today’s Edition
 Today’s main note takes a closer look at one of the best performing Tier II gold
producers in 2023, Eldorado Gold (EGO), as it returned a strong 3q23 last week with
costs kept low. We run the ruler over its operations and financials and like what we see
in today’s main Fundies section.
 Copper’s back on my mind, what with bullish signals returning from China and a couple
of interesting angles on the supply/demand debate showing up last week. Today’s
intro, as well as coverage in The Copper Basket.
 Plenty of updates on covered stocks in Stocks to Follow this weekend, including what
we know at this point about Top Pick Minera Alamos as we wait for that company to file
its 3q23 numbers, in around three weeks’ time.
 Regional Politics does Argentina and Panama. And other stuff. There’s always other
stuff.
1

Copper thoughts (rather than gold)
We have to mention something about gold and its new crossing of the U$2,000/oz line, but as
you’ve probably read too much script on the move in
a dozen other places (and we’re ever the contrarian),
we’re going to keep it brief on gold this week. Here’s
a chart (right) showing the move gold made
compared to both silver and the GDX producers’ ETF.
Moves of this magnitude in gold are uncommon and
while the driving force has been the geopolitical
unrest as triggered by the Israel/Gaza violence, as
mentioned last weekend the macro backdrop and is
also conducive to higher gold prices, with the
markets now assuming the Fed has one more hike in
it at best, perhaps none, and the “higher for longer”
scenario threatens a US recession more clearly. Safe
Haven buying is the order of the day. And the move
above 2K last week is a simple continuation of what we saw and commented upon in IKN753. I
still contend that the geopolitical driver isn’t good basis for confident investment and that
particular rug can be pulled from the market at any given time, but also admit this gold move
has more legs than I expected it to have and we’re now three weeks into a move that, if
anything, is gaining momentum. I don’t mind being wrong about this.
However, today I’d like to turn the intro’s attention toward a more difficult metal to predict at
the moment. The scenario for copper is complicated, as on the one hand we have any number
of medium or long-term market forecast expecting a severe deficit in the years to come, while
the near term is currently experiencing a surplus. I won’t bore you with one of those charts
showing the 6m tonnes or 10m tonnes that’s supposed to be the deficit in 2030 or 2035, they’re
easy to find on the interwebs if you need a reminder. We take that as read for the time being,
but instead remind readers of the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) Copper Market
Forecast 2023/2024 that came out at the beginning of this month, as featured in IKN751 dated
October 8th (1). In it, the ICSG forecast: “World refined copper balance projections indicate a
deficit of about 27,000t for 2023 and a surplus of 467,000t for 2024”, along with several other
matters. That call has filtered into the markets and these days, the debate has been about the
push/pull of the near-term surplus versus the long-term demand deficit and how that’s all going
to play out with the spot price of copper.
However, it’s time to consider a different angle to this debate. Last week, the internet ethers
blew news to this desk of a report from S&P Global Market Intelligence entitled, “Copper miners
snub new builds due to low prices, capex blowouts” that included this excerpt:
The S&P note also quoted someone from inside the world’s biggest publicly traded copper
miner, Freeport (FCX), as saying, “"Current prices are not sustainable and will need to climb to
draw more copper to market.” That’ telling commentary on the current market and indicative of
a slow-motion train wreck developing before our eyes. To recap:
 We know copper forward supply is not enough to cover projected demand for the
proposed “energy transition” future. In fact, it’s not enough to cover standard demand
increases from here to 2030, even without the mooted boom in EV, clean power etc.
 We know that new copper mines of the size required to move the dial take a long time
to move from blueprint to reality. We therefore need investment in new copper mines
now in order to cover the projected supply shortfalls, even the low-end scenarios.
 We know that investment isn’t happening. If it were, the share prices of the
components of The Copper Basket would be a lot higher (and I mean A LOT higher)
2

than they are today.
In other words, the market seems to be doing one of its classic tricks on copper today, i.e.
ignoring a problem in the hope that it goes away. But that’s unlikely to happen and in fact, we
know from the studies available that things are going to get worse, to the point when at a
moment in the not-so distant future when the day of reckoning arrives and end users suddenly
find there’s no copper to buy. Under that scenario, prices don’t just move up, they spike hard
as a speculative panic takes hold and on that day, you’ll want to have at least 100% of your net
wealth in copper juniors.
To that, we must also add the latest information of copper cash costs as related to the market
last week by Cochilco. This Spanish language report (3) on price rises in the second quarter of
2023 covers the top 22 mines in Chile and some 92% of the country’s total copper production,
so the sample is a big one. Here’s a chart from the report, with a little English added
Both C1 cash costs (up 25% YoY) and net costs (up 22.9% YoY) have risen sharply in the last
six and twelve months, with this table from the same report giving some of the breakdown:
The biggest cost hike is in “pricing effect” of mining supplies, personnel and fuel, with lower
production hindering the mix along the way and inflation (IPC) adding its extra headwinds.
The bottom line is simple: Copper prices have to rise. When there’s increasing costs on the one
hand and a reticence to commit capital and invest in new supply downstream on the other, the
sector looks headed for a crunch moment. The million dollar question (literally) is “when”,
because it’s one thing watching a slow-motion train wreck develop, another to be able to
predict when the crunch moment happens. Effectively and to cut a long intro short, there are
two basic ways it could develop; the “intelligent” way that recognizes the shortfall earlier rather
than later and sees all price, including those of junior copper exploreco, move up more steadily
and let the cream float to the top. Or there’s the “headless chicken” way that lets all prices
related to copper wallow and our juniors sub-secto ignored for the longest possible time, only
to explode higher when the market suddenly turns. Put a gun to my head and I’d bet on the
headless chicken, but it’s also a case of remaining true to my fundamental roots and
recognizing deep value, the type we see right here and right now. There’s no right answer aside
from “be long quality copper”, but there are ways to play the upcoming scene: If your pocket
depth and patience allows, the way forward is to accumulate now at these current low prices
and wait, then accumulate more tomorrow no matter whether those prices are slightly higher or
lower than today’s, because when the market turns you get to count the price changes in
dollars rather than cents. However, if you’re like me and with a limit to pocket depth you get to
choose one or the other and assume the risks that go with the decision…suffer a while
underwater before booking the win, or risk missing out on the low prices but still win.
3

As for clues for that much desired copper turn point, there are many millions of dollars to be
made by the person who nails the exact timing. For the rest of us, we should recognize that
signals and indicators rise and fall in importance and relevance according to market conditions,
but at the moment one of the most obvious ways to gauge supply/demand dynamics is with the
simple futures curve over on this page at
the LME (4). This (right) is the screenshot
from Friday afternoon and as you can see
(after squinting a while), both near-term
and long term futures contracts indicate a
market in contango, i.e. future prices
higher than spot prices. That’s a normal
situation for a bulk commodity and signals
no great demand pressure on copper for
the time being. But this is when a regular
check of the LME page comes in handy,
because a few seconds and a quick look
on a daily basis (or weekly if you’re not
quite as obsessed as your author will
show if the curve starts to flatten or even
invert. If the market goes back into
backwardation, there’s no better sign of
an impending supply deficit and the
structural supply weakness over the long-
term would be back in play as the most
influential to spot prices.
Anyway, that’s my rant of the day on the widely predicted long-term copper supply shortfall,
before that we still have to navigate the widely reported near-term copper over-supply. On that
score, it’s worth remembering:
 Copper is not gold
 Gold is an asset class, the reason to own it is its own justification
 Copper is a true commodity, a means to an end and not the end
And with copper covered, it’s time to move back to the subject of gold, the current hot metal in
the market.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Eldorado Gold (EGO) (ELD.to): An improving Tier 2 producer
Today’s main fundies note covers one of the 2023 Producer Basket stocks, Eldorado Gold (EGO)
(ELD.to) for the simplest of reasons: It had a very good 3q23. That was reported last week
and alongside its progress on its main development project, it’s becoming clear that it was a
smart pick for the basket. Back in IKN711 dated January 1st 2023 we announced the make-up
of the 2023 Baskets (Copper, Producer, TinyCap) and one of the new arrivals in the Producer
Basket was EGO. To remind you of the reason for its inclusion, here’s part of the brief write-up
on the company that day:
There are two reasons to pick EGO above other candidate in the Tier 2 gold producer universe:
1) Skouries. This 3.6m oz Au P+P (with copper credits) development project located in Greece is the
reason EGO out-performed peers in 4q22. The formal decision two weeks ago to green light
Skouries, with a debt package covering most of the initial capex of 680m Euros, didn’t come as a
surprise this year but it marks the definitive turnaround of a project that was in serious
environmental jeopardy for many years and along with its other major development play the 4.1m oz
4

Kisladag, for a while threatened to sink the company. With permits now in hand and a national
government that has sided with jobs over the anti-mining environmental lobby, Skouries is set to
deliver positive newsflow in 2023
2) Market Cap and leverage. Its 3q22 wasn’t great but with Skouries now going into capital
construction, EGO will be able to harvest more cash to the balance sheet. EGO doesn’t have a big
market cap compared to its production schedule and that’s a reflection of a balance sheet that
already carries its fair share of debt, but that’s part of the gamble this year and desire to get as
much leverage to gold as possible from three changes.
Until recently, EGO was never on my personal shopping list, but the convergence of circumstances
here end 2022 means it could be in the right place at the right time and offers the leverage I’m
looking for in this year’s Producer Basket.
IKN754 back and as the year has developed, EGO has done well and delivered much along
those broad stroke lines of ten months ago. So far at least, the Skouries build-out has gone to
plan and according to EGO last week, is still on time and on budget. As for the financials and
balance sheet, we’re about to take a closer look at those but hopefully you’ll se what I see and
appreciate the progress being made. However, alongside the two reasons laid out above the
company has also delivered well on production from its four working mines and that’s the main
reason the stock price did what it did last week:
So, after tracking EGO closely via The Producer Basket through 2023 and now finding ourselves
at the point where gold’s interesting price rise is putting producing miners back into play as
valid trades, it seems only right to take a better look at the stock after it delivered a strong Q3
and is guiding well for the near and medium-term future. Be clear that there won’t be any
formal trade call on EGO today and I’m not a buyer as yet (trying to preserve cash), instead
this is a deeper look at one of the better performing mid-tier producers in light of its good
performance all year and the strong Q3 results, just filed. We do the following:
 An overview of its main assets, including a chart showing the last eight quarters of the
assets’ production.
 A closer look at its production results
 A consideration of its financial position and what we can expect from its 4q23 period
 A discussion and conclusion
This isn’t the deepest dive, but should be enough to mark your cards. So without futher ado,
we’ll first feature our standard structure topbox and then get on with the job:
Shares out: 202.867m
Options: 3.663m
Warrants: Zero
PSUs: 0.689m
Fully diluted: 207.219m
Current share price: U$10.78
Market Cap: U$2.187Bn
All prices are in US Dollars unless stated.
5

An overview of its main assets
Today’s EGO has six interesting fixed assets. Four of them are working mines, one is an
important growth project, one is somewhat forgotten mine currently on Care & Maintenance.
We begin with the working mines:
Lamaque: Located outside the traditional mining town of Val-D¿Or in Quebec Province,
Canada, Lamaque is a high-grade underground gold
EGO: Lamaque gold prod, per qtr
mine that’s been in operation since the start of 2109.
It runs a typical head grade of between 6.25 to 6.75
g/t gold and though its 2023 has had some production
issues, it’s still EGO’s biggest producing mine by
ounces. Here’s the production chart showing the last
eight quarters and for what it’s worth, we can expect
Lamaque to get back to (or towards) its previous 50k
oz/qtr run rate as from this quarter. Worth noting that
Lamaque is also a profitable operation with operating
costs normally under U$700/oz and AISC of around
U$1,100/oz
Kışladağ: located in West Turkey (or Turkiye if you’re
not as old as I am), this is a low-grade, bulk-tonnage,
open pit operation that moves large tonnages into to
put material that typically grades at between 0.7 to
0.75 g/t gold onto a heap leach. This eight quarter
gold production chart shows its regular level of
production, what it doesn’t show is its strong margins
it runs, as AISC fluctuates between U$800/oz and
U$1,000/oz
Efemçukuru: Also located in West Turkey,
Efemçukuru is a high grade, underground operation
that runs a typical head grader of between 5.5 g/t and
6.0 g/t gold into a flotation circuit and sells gold
concentrate. Smaller than its other high grade op
Lamaque and slightly higher cash cost, but still very
profitable in the current gold environment with a
typical AISC of under U$1,200/oz.
Olympias: The final working mine at EGO is located
in North Greece (as the name might suggest) and is a polymetallic mine producing gold, silver,
lead and zine. It’s the only EGO asset that produces metals other than gold, so here are two
charts with one showing just the gold, the other making an approximate add of the Ag, Pb and
Zn products for a AuEq total:
6
45315
77333
71964
45424
94315
48873 54783 12824
Oz Au
55000
50000
45000
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
4q21 1q22 2q22 3q22 4q22 1q23 2q23 3q23
source: company filings
EGO: Kisladag gold prod, per qtr
63133 97792 37972 14773 70304 06173 08143 91273
Oz Au
45000
40000
35000
30000
25000 20000
15000
10000
5000
0
4q21 1q22 2q22 3q22 4q22 1q23 2q23 3q23
source: company filings
EGO: Efemcukuru gold prod, per qtr
13622 75012 39722 37422 26312 82991 44622 24112
Oz Au
24000
22000
20000
18000
16000
14000 12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
4q21 1q22 2q22 3q22 4q22 1q23 2q23 3q23
source: company filings
EGO: Olympias gold prod, per qtr
32551
6998
97751 32161 53451 16571 66831 84881
Oz Au EGO: Olympias est Au Eq prod, per qtr
Au/AuEq oz
22000
20000 30000 other AuEq tot
18000 gold oz
16000 25000
14000 20000
12000
10000 15000 8000
6000 10000
4000
5000
2000
0 0
4q21 1q22 2q22 3q22 4q22 1q23 2q23 3q23 4q21 1q22 2q22 3q22 4q22 1q23 2q23 3q23
source: company filings source: company filings, IKN calcs and ests

This is a brief overview and we’re not going into the dedicated data for each product. As for
costs, Olympias went through a high cost period as the mine worked though lower grades and
took on higher development costs in FY22 and early 2023. During the period, AISC of around
U$2,000/oz was typical but 3q23 showed a clear improvement and an AISC of U$1,319/oz.
The above are the working mines, but there are two other assets of interest at EGO:
Skouries: Located in North Greece, Skouries is EGO’s main development project and a
significant part of its current and future valuation. On its books for many years, the project fell
foul of anti-mining sentiment under Greece’s previous Left wing government but a change in
political atmosphere and extensive extra permitting has seen the project approved and it was
green-lighted and funded, with 80% of the U$845 upfront capex funding from a competitive
loan from a European Union investment arm and the other 20% scheduled to come from
organic cash flow (and EGO is set to cover its end comfortably).
It’s an open pit gold/copper mine slated to work for 20 years (and that’s likely to extend
further, so “long mine life” is the takeaway). Construction is now underway and as at last week,
EGO reported project completion at 34% and expected to be at 48% completion by end year
after spending between U$160m and U$170m on Skouries in 2023. The project is on time and
budget according to the Q3 MD&A and on that score, an important detail is that 90% of
procurement is expected to be covered by the end of this year, which will help lock in that
overall budget and aid the timeline critical path. Construction will through all next year and first
production is scheduled for “mid-2025”, so let’s assume commercial production in 4q25. As for
what Skouries should deliver over its 20 years on an annual basis, this table sums things up:
Total Mineralized Material Mined 147 Mt
Average annual gold production 140,000 oz
Average annual copper production 67 Mlbs
Average cash operating costs (LOM) $(365)/oz
Average AISC (LOM) $(6)/oz sold
Gold recovery 83%
Copper recovery 90%
Au grade 0.77 g/t Au
Cu grade 0.50% Cu
The combo of 140k oz/year and a negative cash cost in per-ounce gold terms, thanks to its
significant copper production, makes Skouries a very attractive economic proposition and while
there is a sustaining capital component that all-but equals the U$850m capex, upfront capital
payback comes in under three years at U$2,000/oz gold.
Stratoni: EGO has other exploration stage projects and land holdings, but we’re just going to
run with Stratoni today because it’s one that has been somewhat forgotten by the market, but
has the potential to add meaningful value in the near-ish term if things turn around. Stratoni is
a silver/lead/zinc mine in Greece that’s been operated by several companies and came to EGO
in the early teens. Due to mine exhaustion and spiralling costs, operations were suspended in
mid-2021 and the mine was officially put on care & maintenance in 4q21. At that time, it held
reserves for three years of operations and EGO’s plan was to explore via drilling for more
reserves while on C&M.
U$m EGO: Mine standby costs, per qtr
A look at the standby costs assumed by EGO in the
14
last three years show how Skouries cost them money 12 other
Skouries
while on permitting hold, but now that’s under 10
Stratoni
construction all money spent is now capitalized. 8
However, EGO is still fracturing cash at Stratoni and 6
they wouldn’t be doing that just for fun, that chart 4
2
shows over U$40m in expenses at Stratoni alone. If
0
EGO can develop enough resources from the drill bit,
1q21 2q21 3q21 4q21 1q22 2q22 3q22 4q22 1q23 2q23 3q23
7
source: company filings

this mine could come back into the production fold quickly and provide an unexpected boost to
production and sales.
Overall production results and what to expect from 4q23
We’re running with production number rather than sales, but as they tend to even out as the
same over time there’s no particular issue on focusing on one data set for simplicity’s sake
today. This chart tots up the numbers we see above (along with a few extra previous quarters
from 2020 and 2021), then adds in our forecast for the current quarter 4q23:
EGO: gold production breakdown, per qtr
160000
140000
11408
1 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 25828 2 1 3 3 2 4 9 3 8 7 2 1 3 2 4 9 7 3 3 4 2 1 3 3 3 7 0 4 5 5 2 1 2 5 6 5 3 2 1 3 8996 2 1 2 5 7 7 9 7 3 9 2 1 2 6 4 1 7 2 3 3 2 1 1 5 3 4 6 3 2 5 1 1 9 7 9 5 2 6 8 1 2 1 2 3 6 8 4 6 4 6 2 1 1 8 1 8 4 4 2 8 2 1 4 9 0 0 0 0 0 0
80000 44168
37369 21057 51349 50000
60000 28835 35643 51354
3337746917
42454 37884 3874542821
40000
20000 56816 46172 4401651040 331362977927973 377414030737160 3418037219 42002
0
8
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
Oz Au Olympias
Efemcukuru
Lamaque
Kisladag
source: company filings
Aside the strong financial results in Q3 (see below), another aspect of last week’s earnings
report was EGO “narrowing the focus” of its 2023 guidance to 475k to 495k for 2023. That
removes the upper end of the previous guidance of 475k to 515k, so they’re still inside
guidance but the glitches hit early year (Lamaque and other) means they are not going to make
the best numbers. With this in mind, your author has taken a look at the individual mine
guidance data, tried to read between the lines of the 3q23 MD&A on each mine and stuck a
finger in the air to come up with those estimates. We’re aiming for the best quarter of the year
by some distance, in fact, the best consolidated numbers since 4q20 base EGO is going to need
that type of total to make the bottom end of guidance. For the record, our Q4 estimates above
would get the company to 477,000oz for the year, beating the “narrowed focus” by just
2,000oz and that means we are in fact pitching to the low side and there’s the potential to get
better numbers. As for costs, the 3q23 cash op costs of U$698/oz and AISC of U$1,177/oz were
very good results from the company and pleased the market, as EGO is one of the very few
companies that has managed to cut its AISC this year. In fact, those 3q23 results represent the
best quarter since 4q21.
EGO: Cost per oz Au profile, per qtr
146
689
546
4701
646
3311
175
7701
538
6431
987
0721
308
9521
147
6421
667
4811
197
6921
896
7711
037
0221
1600
1400
1200
1000
800 600
400
200
0
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
U$/oz Au
cash op costs
AISC
source: company filings
EGO also narrowed the focus of its costs guidance for 2023 last week and our estimated for
4q23 reflect those new ranges. The company expects "average cash operating costs of $730 to
$780...and AISC per ounce sold of U$1,190 to $1,240." Consequently, our 4q23 costs estimates
as seen above (U$730/oz and U$1,220/oz respectively) would mean the 2023 overall average
would come in at U$746/oz and U$1,220/oz. Summing up that blast of numbers, we’re allowing
some wriggle room and aiming to the low end on overall production and likewise on costs. As
always with these things, the moving parts of a multi-mine company with growth projects on

board mean that we’re highly unlikely to nail those exact numbers for Q4, but equally we
should be in the ballpark and the strategy is to pitch at the “conservative realistic” and
hopefully leave surprises to the upside.
A consideration of its financial position and what to expect from 4q23
Now for a quick run around the EGO 3q23 operational results and some ballpark on 4q23,
based on our “conservative realist with wriggle
room” estimates as seen above. We begin with the EGO: revenues per qtr
basic revenues chart (right) and the top line of
U$245.26m from 3q23 as reported last week was
an improvement on the most recent results, but
equally it’s not out of the ordinary. However, 4q23
promises better things and our U$270/m estimate
for the current quarter is a reasonable target as
long as it makes the bottom end of 2023 guidance.
From there, we move to the earnings overview
chart (below left) and with the incorporation of that
moderately lower cash cost level for 3q23, we get improved gross margin (prod minus COGS),
mine operating earnings (minus DD&A) and operating earnings (minus exploration, G&A, those
standby costs for Stratoni (and other) and the non-cash share-based payments, alont with
other minor expenses). That long view chart is rather busy and not easy to read, so below right
is the exact same dataset for just the last eight quarters, plus our forecast for 4q23:
Still plenty of data, but the most important lines are arguably mine operating earnings and
overall operating earnings, so here are those isolated (below left). There’s a clear improvement
in the amount of cash generated at mine of U$66.343m (and I’m no fan of EBITDA for
operating mines, but if you back out the DD&A EGO produced over U$104m of free cash flow in
3q23), then operating earnings of U$42.862m. As long as costs remain buckled down, those will
improve considerably as production ramps in Q4. To the right we see that on a per-share basis
And the improvement is set fair, thanks to the limited dilution at EGO recently. For example, in
3q23 that’s 30c/share mine operating earnings and 21c/share operating earnings. Our
9
25.872
26.422 22.332 44.832 36.442 76.491 54.312 7.712 71.642 53.922 68.922 62.542 072
300
275
250
225
200
175
150 125
100
75
50
25
0
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
source company filings/IKN ests
srallod
fo
snoillim
EGO: Earnings overview
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
-50
-100
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4
U$m revenues EGO: Earnings overview
gross margin 350
mine op earnings
300
op. earnings
250
200
150
100
50
0
-50
source: company filings 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
U$m revenues
gross margin
mine op earnings
op. earnings
source: company filings
EGO: Mine Op Earnings and Op Earnings, per qtr
725.38 11.361 815.83 64.41- 650.84 814.23 887.72 976.3 158.75 140.02 357.75 953.43 377.84 470.93 343.66 268.24 68 06
200
180
160
140 120 100 80 60 40
20
0
-20
12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
U$m EGO: mine op earnings and op earnings per share
1.00 mine op earnings
op. earnings 0.80
0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00
-0.20
-0.40
source: company filings, IKN ests
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
mine op earn/share
op earn/share
source: company filings, IKN calcs and ests

estimates for 4q23 are 42c and 30c respectively. And before moving on, just one more chart to
show why it’s better to gauge results at this
company via operating earnings, rather than net:
EGO takes plenty of non-cash hits and while
quarters such as 1q22 and its massive impairment
aren’t common, it’s not unusual to see EGO report
the same type of small net loss it did in 3q23 last
week (-U$7.87m). This is a growth oriented
company that’s all about cash generation and
investment in itself, rather than delivering standard
bottom line results.
This shows best in its balance sheet articles. Assets are making steady forward headway thanks
to the capitalization of Skouries and other…
5500 EGO: Assets breakdown, per qtr
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
10
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
U$m
other fixed
property/plant/equip
other current
inventory
cash&eq
source: company filings
…while liabilities are also moving up as EGO gradually drsw on its EU-sourced loan facility for
the Skouries build-out.
EGO: Liabilities breakdown, per qtr
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
U$m Other LT liab
LT debt
current liab
source: company filings
But what matters most on the EGO balance sheet and the way to best judge its improving
financial health at a glance is its liquidity and working capital data:
EGO: Treasury and working cap
115 60.294 18.335 87.435 37.014 55.934 23.934
91.695
33.184 95.125 86.434 43.394 69.963 90.064
63.603
91.114
47.413
25.124
82.262
51.514 85.654
10.495
26.674
78.736
005
076
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
Operating and net earnings
200
100
0
-100
-200
-300
-400
-500
U$m cash&eq
working cap
source: company filings
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
U$m
op. earnings
net earnings from cont.ops
net earnings for period
source: company filings, IKN ests

Treasury is improving fast to U$476m and change as at end 3q23 and estimated to touch
U$500m at the end of the year, as long as EGO prefers to tap the EU loans for its Skouries
invoices rather than its own treasury. We’ll see how that goes, but either way its working
capital position is more than enough. For a clearer look at the cash treasury number and to see
that the Skouries build-out won’t be affected by any EGO balance sheet weakness, below right
is that cash data isolated, then we round off with the evolution of shares out and now the final
Skouries raising is done, there’s no reason to expect that much higher.
EGO: Cash treasury per qtr
600
550
500
450
400
350
300 250
200
150
100
50
0
Discussion and conclusion
After Ero Copper (ERO.to in IKN753, this is the second time in as many weeks that we’re
featuring Billion Dollar Plus market capper in our main Fundies section. Recent times have also
seen The IKN Weekly open coverage on bigger producers and on a personal level, I’ve even
bought shares in companies such as Fortuna Silver (FSM) (FVI.to) and Equinox Gold (EQX). All
these are examples of larger cap stocks that are not normally our focus of attention on these
pages and for reasons previously considered on several occasions (can go over them again if
you want). This is unlikely to be pure coincidence. In this desk’s opinion, it’s the right time in
the cycle to focus on the larger cap end of the market and look at producing, profit-making Tier
II mining companies and with a preference for the precious metals space (ERO.to the obvious
exception), as with gold doing what it’s been doing recently the spot light should soon swing
round to a whole bunch of undervalued PM miners that provide decent leverage to the
monetary metal and are severely lagging behind as a collective sector. We’ve made the case for
EQX (leverage at U$2k/oz gold) and FSM (quickly improving production base and now a
majority gold miner), today is the turn of EGO. But there is something of a coincidence to
analyzing. But there’s also the question of speculative timing, as ERO came up on the radar sue
to its sharp price recent price drop in Ero Copper (ERO.to) while by pure coincidence, EGO
impressed with its 3q23 financials last week and simply deserved a closer look today.
I’m not a buyer of EGO, but there’s clearly a spec trade in the offing and with at least three
reasons to consider it as your next purchase, assuming gold plays ball and holds this new
$2,000/oz price:
 Improved 3q23 earnings and good costs
 The likelihood that 4q23 is even better
 Skouries build out going well, with an eventual re-rate as gold production will literally
double from current levels once that mine comes on line.
There are other positives too, such as the latent opportunity of Stratoni but for whatever reason
EGO has impressed this year and its share price gains have deservedly been at the front of the
pack, especially as it seems to have done the thing so many other larger producers have failed
to do recently by getting its costs under control. As it stands today it’s no longer a massive
bargain and with EQSX and FSM about to report their potential catalyst earnings to market, my
personal preference remains with those stocks. However, EGO must be on your shortlist and is
without doubt one of the quickest improving gold mine stocks available. Don’t be surprised if I
pull the trigger one of these fine days.
11
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
source: company filings/IKN ests
srallod
fo snoillim
EGO: Shares Out
0.561 2.561 1.471 8.471 9.471 2.771 6.281 6.281 7.281 8.481 7.481 7.481 8.481 9.481 9.202 9.202 9.202
240
220
200
180
160
140
120 100
80
60
40
20
0
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
source: company filings/IKN ests
serahs
fo
snoillim

Stocks to Follow
We’re down to 16 Stocks to Follow and of those, six were week-over-week winners (ARG.to,
EQX, NCAU.v, MARI.to, ERO.to, MENE.v), one remained unchanged (MIRL.cse) and the other
nine were losers (MAI.v, SOLG.to, FSM, CTGO, RIO.v, WEX.v, ALDE.v, SURG.v, PAU.cse). Most
of those moves were small, but we need to point out the three big percentage drops in
Provenance Gold (PAU.cse down 17.4%), Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v down 11.4%) and a really annoying
7.8% loss in Top Pick Minera Alamos.
With the dropping of RUG.v and LBC.v from the Watch List, plus the addition of Ero Copper
(ERO.to), we’re now at 16 open positions and that’s four below our self-imposed maximum. Six
are in the green and ten are in the red, that’s bad enough but also note that three of the six
with green ink are in the Watch List and I don’t own any. Blurgh.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.295 40.5% $0.75 first tgt, #1 idea
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Amerigo Res ARG.to hold C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.17 -14.0% cut size but still big Cu play
SolGold SOLG.to BUY C$0.265 19-Feb-23 C$0.155 -41.5% Cu in Ecuador, M&A tgt
Equinox Gold EQX STR BUY U$4.46 30-May-23 U$4.61 3.4% Au leverage trade, painful week
Fortuna Silver FSM STR BUY U$2.92 13-Aug-23 U$2.89 -1.0% New trade, want quick flip
Contango Ore CTGO BUY U$18.70 30-Jul-23 U$16.89 -9.7% new purchase IKN741
Newcore Gold NCAU.v SPEC BUY C$0.205 23-Oct-22 C$0.135 -34.1% Financing closed, bottom in
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v BUY C$0.83 22-Apr-18 C$0.195 -76.5% Cheap on permit probs, appeal
SPECULATIVE TRADES
Western Explor. WEX.v SPEC BUY C$1.87 9-Apr-23 C$0.80 -57.2% Au spec in USA, started badly
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v SPEC BUY C$0.72 16-May-21 C$0.77 6.9% now in drill assay season
Minera IRL MIRL.cse avoid C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.01 -94.9% run into ground byCEO, AVOID
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
Marimaca Copper MARI.to WATCH C$3.65 26-May-23 C$3.86 5.8% Likely buy, want cheap entry
Surge Copper SURG.v WATCH C$0.11 18-Jun-23 C$0.095 -13.6% tinycap Cu in BC Canada
Provenance Gold PAU.cse WATCH C$0.085 8-Oct-23 C$0.095 11.8% Idaho gold drill play
Ero Copper ERO.to WATCH C$18.94 22-Oct-23 C$19.25 1.6% High quality Cu producer
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.63 6-Dec-20 C$0.30 -52.4% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2023 date closed close price
Altiplano Metals APN.v jan'23 C$0.31 17-Sep-21 C$0.17 -45.2% delayed and will dilute soon
Western Copper WRN.to mar'23 C$2.02 13-Nov-22 C$2.32 14.9% sold on reduced M&A prob.
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v may'23 C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$1.75 -43.0% Closing on legal action news
Amerigo Res ARG.to may'23 C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.48 8.8% sold 20% to raise cash
Amerigo Res ARG.to oct'23 C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.21 -11.0% sold 10% raise to cash
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v oct'23 C$0.265 25-Apr-21 C$0.12 -54.7% sold raise to cash
Faraday Copper FDY.to oct'23 C$0.79 26-Mar-23 C$0.68 -11.4% sold raise to cash
AbraSilver Res. ABRA.v oct'23 C$0.36 4-Dec-22 C$0.28 -22.2% sold raise to cash
Orecap inv OCI.v oct'23 C$0.04 20-Nov-22 C$0.03 -25.0% sold raise to cash
2015 to 2022 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on some of our covered companies:
Ero Copper (ERO.to): ADDED TO WATCH LIST. As stated last weekend, ERO.to is now on
the Watch List and now please excuse the over-use of first person singular, but it’s for a
12

purpose. The reason to put it on the Watch List is to watch it more closely from now on and
please be clear, my personal position on this potential trade is to wait and see. While I believe it
to be good value right now at/around C$19 (and said as much last weekend), I’m not looking
for merely good value here; I’m after GREAT value and my mind’s eye envisions potential Tax
Loss Selling weakness as the 2023 calendar year winds down.
Libero Copper (LBC.v) and Rugby Resources (RUG.v): Dropped from Watch List. Also
as warned last weekend, these haven’t done enough to warrant any further space on the table
and now they’re gone. We still have LBC” on the Copper Basket this year and we’ll keep an eye
on it from there, if it surprises us after all this time and comes up with that very elusive drill
permit in Argentina, we’ll know and be able to buy some at the price offered. As for RUG is the
right type of story to make the TinyCaps list in 2024 but that’s enough for this part of the
Weekly. Thank you for playing, LBC and RUG, better luck next time.
Minera Alamos (MAI.v): A frustrating week (again) alter the previous week’s notable
accumulation and move above 30c, the MAI marketplace
went quiet again and it took just one or two smallish
sellers on Tuesday and Friday to undo that constructive
start. The ten-day chart (right) comparing MAI to GDXJ is
a reasonable visual summing up of the sentiment over the
last couple of weeks. There’s a notable sense of
frustration growing about the lack of news from the
company and aside the upcoming 3q23 financials in about
three weeks’ time (they reported on November 21st last
year, it’ll be roughly the same this year), we’re awaiting
news on three fronts and the delays and lack of updates
are beginning to irk this company’s (and let’s say it
because it’s true) faithful retail shareholder group. On contacting President Doug Ramshaw
yesterday Saturday morning to ask about the delays and get news, here’s what I learned:
 Cerro de Oro financing package: It’s taken way too long, but the good news is that the CdO
financing package has finally got past the legal beagles in all countries (apparently the worst
delay was on a Mexican lawyer’s desk) and on Friday, the package was approved by all
parties. When asked whether we’d get news in the days to come, I was told that he was
going to try and get things signed off with the market people and a NR out today Sunday
(he’s aware of the lack of news and the antsy feelings among shareholders), which means
that you may have read something before you read these words. If not, expect the NR in
the next few hours.
 Cerro de Oro permitting track: It’s less surprising that we’ve heard nothing about this angle,
as the permitting track is in process and that’s more about the rote world of paperwork and
back-and-forth communication between the company and the relevant Mexican authorities
(Semarnat et al). We’ll probably get some sort of update in the 3q23 financials literature, but
as things stand the CdO permitting track is going as per expected.
 Santana pad expansion permit: This is the irksome one, as President Ramshaw reported
slow bureaucracy and delays. This issue brought further conversation on the larger subject
of the AMLO government and its reluctance to award any open pit permit anywhere in the
country and while the lack of permits is now a roaring silence in Mexico, there are
jungledrums of “a permit” that’s about to be awarded to some-or-other open pit operation.
If so, that will give lie to the assumption that there’s no permitting work happening in
Mexico at the moment, but it’s still a frustrating situation at Santana with a mine ready to
expand operations, but no piece of paper allowing them to do so.
While it’s clear to one and all that this languishing stock price is no fun (for holders at least,
buyers have a bargain of rare levels in front of their eyes), I’m going to close on MAI this week
by reminding readers that way back when, one of the original attractions of MAI as a long-term
investment was the conservative, prudent financial attitude displayed by the company. Back
when there were no headwinds to the story, Ramshaw and his team emphasized that they
13

wouldn’t try to run before they walked and would take care to keep the corporate financial
structure tight. As things have turned out, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where a more
aggressive management team would have blown out this share structure and lost equity value.
Instead, the slow-but-sure pathway taken by MAI has kept things tight, even the limited
production at Santana makes them a useful operating profit and the balance sheet remains in
fine shape. All this will serve us well when MAI gets over these temporary hurdles and starts to
develop its assets and moves into the organic growth phase.
SolGold (SOLG.to): The pain continued on the first two days of last week in SOLG and its
main UK ticker dropped as low as 8p before the
reversal and rebound began that you see on this chart,
that compares the London and Dot Tee Oh listings.
SOLG in Canada ended with a bit of a sag and instead
of closing where it should have done by rights, 17c or
so, its 15.5c became another week-over-week loos but
that should unwind in the days ahead and these
squiggly lines revert to a close match.
As for the reason behind the rebound, that’s this NR (5)
out of the company which wasn’t much more than one
of those “Hey Look We Are Here!” exercises and didn’t
contain any new news for the close watcher of SOLG,
but the market seemingly latched onto it and probably this part of the script:
The Company is in discussions with a number of highly credible groups who are at
different stages of their review with interest in Cascabel and/or SolGold's Ecuadorian
exploration portfolio. There are over 20 active confidentiality agreements ("CAs") in
place and over 5 groups have already completed site visits with a number of follow-up
visits being scheduled. It is very clear through this review that Cascabel is recognized
as a world-class asset of significance, with parties being very diligent in their review
given the size and potential scale of the asset.
That’s not a surprise as after all, it’s a strategic review and you’d expect potential acquirors to be in talks or
given the keys to the data room. But the market seemed to remember this is indeed an M&A target on
reading the obvious and the stock found some badly needed momentum. However, the part that stood out
for me was this, earlier in the NR:
Strategic Review Progressing
Three little words. Seriously, how long is this strategic review going to go on? This time last
year, Bob Sangha of Maxit Capital was telling the world about his plans to wrest board control
from “Team BHP/Newcrest” and get a rapid sale done, then came February 2023 and the first
part of that plan fell into place nicely. That’s when the strategic review began and there was
reason to believe they’d get the whole job done (and the stock price rallied into the 30c on that
supposition. Then came the combo of the Ecuador snap election and the drop in the price of
copper which certainly would have slowed things, but it’s now October coming on year end and
there’s nothing to show for the process except for…more process.
The rebound last week was very welcome and I expect we’ll see more upside this week too, at
least in the TSX ticker. But at some point my patience will run out.
Provenance Gold (PAU.cse):
A man walks down the street
He says, "Why am I short of attention?
Got a short little span of attention
And, whoa, my nights are so long
You Can Call Me Al, Paul Simon, 1986
The attention span of this market is best measured in fruit fly life spans. After that very decent
“12 Meters of 18.01 g/t Gold Within 119 meters of 3.28 g/t Gold from Surface” assay of two
Wednesdays ago that we chewed over last weekend, along with the deserved spike in traded
14

volume and prices that reached 13c before closing at 11.5c
last weekend, PAU duly went through days of nothing last
week as asks disappeared and market participants promptly
forgot this stock even existed.
Such is the way, so if you like this trade idea and its
Eldorado project in Oregon (not Idaho, see the errata
above) now’s the time to pick up the cheap prices before
the next NR arrives.
Contango ORE (CTGO): Two things to report. Firstly and
similarly to PAU above, trading in CTGO dried up to a trickle and, aside a flurry of trading on
Tuesday, reverted to the bad old days when this stock traded by appointment. That didn’t help
the share price action at all.
The other thing that didn’t help was this news (6) out of
the GWN about a civil case legal action opened by anti-
mining activists against one specific part of the Manh
Choh project, namely the large trucks commissioned by
the company (Kinross 70%, CTO 30%) to do the heavy
lifting from pit to the Fort Knox mine. I’ve been in
contact with CTGO CTGO Rick VN, he’s aware of the
suit filed on October 17th and says “we are monitoring”
but importantly “So far no request for an injunction.
There’s a link to the original court filing on this report
(7) as well as a photo of one of the trucks in question,
which the suit says is too large and not allowed on
some parts of the route. They also call into question the viability of five bridges that are part of
the route, saying they are not in good condition to carry the weight of these large trucks. In
rebuttal, the JV Company Peak Gold note that the project received the relevant permits after an
extensive permitting period and their project is in adherence with all laws, they also note that
the same roadway is currently being used by fuel transport trucks carrying the same weight,
with no issues on the bridges or anywhere else for that matter. Finally, the timing of this suit is
just before the first convoy trucks start on the full route from Manh Choh to the Fort Knox
mine, scheduled to begin next week.
Overall and after considering the evidence, I’m not particularly worried about this suit that
seems to come from an Anti-Everything group, rather than containing a serious challenge to
permits that were awarded after a long consultation period that went over details with a fine
tooth comb.
Equinox Gold (EQX): Up 5c on the week and that’s not bad, EQX is still at a very buyable
price and if Tuesday/Wednesday goes well, there’s every reason to see it move higher. Here’s
what happens this week (8):
Equinox Gold Corp.(TSX: EQX, NYSE American: EQX) will announce its unaudited
financial and operating results for the three and nine months ended September 30,
2023 on Tuesday, October 31, 2023, after market close. Equinox Gold will host a
conference call and webcast to discuss the results the following morning on
Wednesday, November 1, 2023, commencing at 7:30 am PT (10:30 am ET).
I’ll be on that ConfCall and we’ll do a lot more EQX next weekend, for sure. We’re looking for
three things in ascending order of importance:
 A reasonable Q3 earnings
 Strong guidance for this quarter and perhaps 2024
 News that Greenstone is still on time/budget
I’ll take a great Q3 of course, but Greenstone guidance is the thing and with gold doing what
15

it’s doing, pointing to growing future earnings will be a better selling point. This is one of the
key moments for this trade and could be a real catalyst moment for our preferred leveraged
trade on gold.
Western Exploration (WEX.v): Highly delayed it’s true, but we understand the first drill
assay results are about to be published by WEX on its Gravel Creek target and that the
company is still aiming for an initial resource estimate for 1q24. From the start, we’ve given
WEX the leeway and patience to wait and see what it offers via the drill bit (it’s a drill play, after
all) and once there’s solid news, we can make a proactive decision.
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v): Last Wednesday 25th October Chile’s Comité de Ministros held a meeting
with two items on its agenda (9), namely appeals on a permit for a LNG gas facility at a port in
Biobio province, and a permit appeal for a landfill waste site, also in Biobio. In other words, the
Fenix Gold appeal remains unheard. We know the government must give the company ten
days’ notice before its appeal comes up and we know there are two more meeting slots for the
Comité this year, so if the case is heard in either November or December we’ll know with a little
advance warning, but that’s all I have for you on this case and in effect, we’re in the same boat
as the company and its team; twiddling thumbs and waiting for the Chilean government
apparatus to do its thing.
Amerigo Resources (ARG.to): Happy to see a better week in
our biggest copper trade (even after those recent tranche sales)
and the market seems to have recognized the excellent value
ARG offers at these price levels and that dividend policy. Here’s
ARG vs the main copper ETF (COPX) and our charge started
beating the median as from Wednesday, then had a particularly
good Friday as those bargain hunters stepped up.
Meanwhile, a reminder that ARG also reports its Q3 this week,
this case pre-open Wednesday November 1st with the ConfCall
the next morning, 2pm EDT. Here’s the link to get linked up to the CC (10) and once again,
expect plenty of ARG next weekend.
The Copper Basket
After forty-three weeks of 2023, The Copper Basket shows a loss of 19.71% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Solaris Res SLS.to 6.44 146.599 854.67 5.83 -9.5%
2 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.22 92.882 358.52 3.86 19.9%
3 Western Copper WRN.to 2.41 151.597 262.26 1.73 -28.2%
4 Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to 1.92 105.96 153.64 1.45 -24.5%
5 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.78 169.819 130.76 0.77 -1.3%
6 Oroco Res OCO.v 0.91 216.13 114.55 0.53 -41.8%
7 Faraday Copper FDY.to 0.54 175.2 108.62 0.62 14.8%
8 Hot Chili HCH.v 0.78 119.455 107.51 0.90 15.4%
9 Regulus Res. REG.v 1.10 124.509 90.89 0.73 -33.6%
10 Pan Global Res PGZ.v 0.46 212.395 38.23 0.18 -60.9%
11 Kodiak Copper KDK.v 1.12 56.2 33.16 0.59 -47.3%
12 QC Copper QCCU.v 0.165 162.815 20.35 0.125 -24.2%
13 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.16 106.25 12.75 0.12 -25.0%
14 Atacama Copper ACOP.v 0.16 35.94 7.55 0.21 31.3%
15 Libero Copper LBC.v 0.155 119.58 3.59 0.03 -80.6%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg -19.71%
16

It’s another new 2023 low for our exploreco basket and now, just four stocks remain in positive
territory for the year. As for the week, there was
a mixed bunch of five winners since IKN753
(SLS.to. MARI.to, HCH.v, PGZ.v, QCCU.v), two
that remained unchanged (REG.v, LBC.v) and the
other eight that lost ground (WRN.to, OCO.v,
ASCU.to, ALDE.v, FDY.to, KDK.v, ECU.v,
ACOP.v). There were no big winners, there were
two double figure percentage losers in the shape
of Element 29 (ECU.v down 20.0%) and Oroco
Resources (OCO.v down 14.5%).
As for copper-the-metal last week, it could have
been worse. Spot prices spent most of the week
under U$3.60/lb but then things perked up as
bullish data out of China started filtering into the
market, not least that of inventories (see below)
and Friday saw copper get its head above the
U$3.60/lb line in earnest, closing at U$3.63/lb.
However, it’s difficult to read too much into the
action and due to that, I’ve chosen the most
common or garden visual to go with the script, the
12 month continuous contract (HG00) right.
There’s some sort of wedge pattern there and I’m
sure technical analysts will have more of an
opinion on it than me, but frankly I see no reason
to hold strong opinions about the very near term.
We did plenty on copper in today’s intro so not so much here today on the macro. Instead we
turn to our carefully curated sector news and last week, Chile’s State run copper miner Codelco
filed its 3q23 financials (11). Being a State-run entity, Codelco doesn’t report classic “profits” in
the same way that privately owned companies to and instead, it’s normally measured by what’s
known as “Excedentes”, literally “Surpluses” and a measure of how much money it gives to the
State in total. There are four categories:
 State Tax 13916 (the nationalization deal)
 Corporation Tax
 Mining Tax
 Earnings (which also go to the State, as they are the owners
The four component parts fluctuate according to their own rules and depending on the quarter
of the year, but add them together and you get this:
Codelco: "Excedentes" (operating margin) per quarter
17
173
45-
682
737
45
623
447
459 7261
7402
4751
6412
1251 758
822 931 814
98-
885
2400
2200
2000
1800
1600
1400 1200
1000
800 600 400
200
0
-200
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3
The Copper Basket 2023, weekly evolution 16%
12%
8%
4%
0%
-4%
-8%
-12%
-16%
-20%
U$m
Source: Codelco
As you can see, Codelco provided a veritable cash bonanza to the Chilean government in the
late 2020 to mid-2022 period but since then the drop in production, debt payments and the
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2yluj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6gua ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3pes ht01 ht71 ht42 ts1tco ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92
source: IKN calcs

drop in the price of copper have hit margins hard. The 3q23 period has brought some relief and
a total of U$558m to the Boric government but it’s going to take a few more quarters to see a
real recovery. Now for our regular weekly look at the state of copper inventories around the
world, with data from Cochilco for LME and Comex, plus CEIC (12) for the SHFE data (for some
reason Cochilco didn’t update its SHFE database this week):
 Sometimes this section goes through a set of boring numbers without a signal to
report, sometimes it shows the continuation of a clear bullish or bearish trend, but the
most interesting weeks are those such as this one, which potentially mark a turning
point in activity and sentiment. After weeks of bearish drudgery, last week was a clear
bullish signal from the world’s three official futures systems for copper, with the
aggregate in stock falling by a cool 31,099 metric tonnes (mt) to a total of 240,647mt
this weekend. That’s a sudden 11.4% drop in the amount of copper available to the
world from the futures stocks, a big move and one that comes at the traditional start of
the China factory re-stock season, one that runs to year-end.
 By far the most interesting corner of the market was the SHFE, which saw a very big
drop in stocks of 21,815mt to close at just 36,408mt. That’s “scrape bottom of barrel”
levels again, a number that removes all the stock added after the Golden Week holiday
and in practical terms as all the physical copper available at SHFE being sold out of its
warehouses. After several weeks of bearish or neutral-at-best readings from the SHFE
system, this week was undeniably bullish.
 The bullish sentiment was reinforced by the LME stock data, which saw a drop of
8,950mt on the week to close Friday at 182,900mt. What’s more, we saw another add
of 2,250mt to its New Orleans roach motel warehouse, while at the business end of the
world copper market some 10,575mt left stocks in its Asia warehouses, the ones
servicing the world’s biggest customer base. Add that datapoint to what happened in
SHFE last week (see above) and it adds up to a China manufacturing base that’s
looking to stock up before end-year in normal style but apparently having difficulty in
sourcing physical copper outside of the futures systems (supposedly the supplier of last
resort). Yes, also bullish.
 Another quiet week for Comex stocks, another small drawsn down of 2594mt, leaving
the week close at 21,339mt. No biggie.
The dedicated SHFE chart shows that big drop in stocks to the right of the charts. Stocks got
slightly lower than this in 2022 and did so earlier in the year, but that’s still a move to be
reckoned with and suggests a distinct lack of copper on the Chinese mainland, right at the time
buyers want to secure supply for their 2024 run.
SHFE copper inventory levels, 2018 to 2023
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
18
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
MT Cu 2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
source: Cochilco data
Now for notes on a few basket stocks:
Atacama Copper (ACOP.v): It’s taken over a year (quite literally) to get news of any
substance out of this company but last week, we finally got something. It also explains why
CEO Tim Warman has spent more time in Mexico than in Chile this year (13):

Vancouver, British Columbia – October 26, 2023 – Atacama Copper Corporation
(TSXV:ACOP) ("Atacama Copper" or the "Company") announces that it has signed a
binding letter of intent dated October 26, 2023 (the "Letter of Intent") with TCP1
Corporation ("TCP1"), an arm's length private company with mineral properties located
in Mexico, relating to a business combination whereby the Company will acquire all of
the issued and outstanding shares of TCP1 in exchange for common shares of the
Company.”
This is a big transaction and in essence, transforms ACOP into a Mexican exploreco. There’s
also a funding round that looks to put $10m into treasury:
“Concurrent with the Proposed Transaction, the Company has entered into an
agreement with Cormark Securities Inc. and Stifel Canada as co-lead agents
(collectively, the "Agents") for a private placement of subscription receipts (the
"Subscription Receipts") at a price of C$0.18 per Subscription Receipt for minimum net
proceeds of $10,000,000…”
This isn’t the day to go into depth on a RTO that’s about to change virtually everything about
ACOP, neither is it the moment to reflect on the lack of movement they’ve seen in the Chilean
assets. Instead, let’s merely copypaste the Transaction Highlights section from the NR for
reference purposes:
 Creates a diversified exploration and development company with assets in close
proximity to established operations in geologically prospective regions of Mexico and
Chile.
 Resulting Issuer will be led by a team with a proven history and track record of
discovery, exploration success, mine building, operations, and community engagement
and relations.
 Establishes a well-capitalized company supported by a strong shareholder base.
 Provides multiple avenues of shareholder value creation as the combined asset base
is advanced through focused and generative exploration programs that will support
expansion of the mineralized footprint, in addition to early engineering and test work
that will support future project optimization.
 Establishes a platform for future acquisition and consolidation opportunities in the
Americas.
Once we have more on the assets and the eventual share structure (not difficult imagine them
running a rollback once it’s all done, we can consider the deal more carefully. In the meantime,
the stock dropped a penny to 21c and that 18c ticket price financing is likely to become a
baseline for valuations. Watching, not touching.
Pan Global Resources (PGZ.v): Up a penny on from last weekend and that looked like being
more midweek, before waning interest saw it drop back to its 18c close Friday. Meanwhile, in
this YouTube Q&A with CEO Moody out Friday (14) we learned two useful facts:
 The upsized financing is set to close in correct style this coming week, on schedule.
 PGZ will have around C$7m in treasury once it does
The only thing you have to do is work through the
spin because PGZ is now painting its mistake of going
for just $2m originally this way:
In a recent financing, Pan Global initially set out to
raise $2 million but was met with strong investor
demand. Given the oversubscription, the company
intelligently took advantage and closed on $6
million instead.
As Moody explained, "Although there is some
dilution, the extra capital gives us a longer runway
in uncertain times."
The successful financing is a validation of Pan
Global's copper assets and approach. While the Company considered keeping the
books closed after $2 million and waiting for improved market conditions in 2024,
ultimately deciding to take the additional funds now was a savvy strategic move.
19

And I got all teenager and said to myself, “OK boomer, yeah whatever.” On the other hand,
this…
The risks of sitting idle in the mining sector are real. As Moody cautioned, "Giving
investors less reason to invest in Pan Global would be a mistake."
…is something we fully agree with and with treasury now good for three quarters, PGZ should
be able to deliver non-stop news flow from Escacena. One final point, as I was asked by reader
GS via WhatsApp whether PGZ will make it to the Watch List, even if I don’t buy any. Frankly
I’m tempted, but the addition of Ero Copper (ERO.to) once again makes that sub-section rather
copper-centric. If, as I’m guessing, we see Tax Loss Selling in this ticker through December it
may get to a price that tempts me to simply buy some as a spec trade, rather than merely
watching it. Watching brief but, for the time being, from here in The Copper Basket.
Oroco Resources (OCO.v): OCO ended up getting
a good old-fashioned kicking last week as the reality
of its okay-not-great PEA started to dawn on its
previously fanatical fan base. There’s still a hard core
of True Believers in this stock and there will be for a
while to come (if history is our guide to this type of
fanclub driven story) but they’re just going to have to
learn the hard way. There’s nothing to say this
weekend that wasn’t in IKN753 last weekend and the
price drop we witnessed in this market last week is
absolutely logical and understandable.
As for treasury, OCO had around C$4.5m at the last report and that’s probably enough to limp
into the first part of next year, but it’s not a big cushion and at some point they’re going to
raise again. Worth remembering in this predatory market.
OCO.v: Shares Out
The Producer Basket
After 43 weeks of 2023, the Producer Basket shows a gain of 3.43% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 47.20 799 31.14 38.97 -17.4%
2 Barrick GOLD 17.18 1761.54 28.77 16.33 -4.9%
3 Agnico Eagle AEM 51.99 488.9 23.85 48.79 -6.2%
4 Wheaton PM WPM 39.08 451.963 19.67 43.53 11.4%
5 Kinross Gold KGC 4.09 1256.1 6.67 5.31 29.8%
6 Alamos Gold AGI 10.11 393.1 5.04 12.82 26.8%
7 B2Gold BTG 3.57 1074.567 3.49 3.25 -9.0%
8 Hecla Mining GFI 5.56 610.491 2.53 4.14 -25.5%
9 Eldorado Gold EGO 8.36 185.73 2.00 10.78 28.9%
10 Wesdome Gold WDOFF 5.53 147.526 0.82 5.55 0.4%
All prices and stock quotes in U$ Port. avg 3.43%
20
4.39 6.39 5.79 9.99
6.401 1.501
4.741 1.751 1.271 5.681 1.981 5.191 3.391 4.391 9.402 9.502 0.702 0.702 4.312 1.612 1.612
250
225
200
175
150
125 100
75
50
25
0
81.von 91.bef 91.yam 91.gua 91.von 02.bef 02.yam 02.gua 02.von 12.bef 12.yam 12.gua 12.von 22.bef 22.yam 22.gua 22.von 32.bef 32.yam 32.gua 32.von
source: company filings
serahs
fo snoillim

We start this week’s review of the larger cap PM producers with a ten-day chart comparing gold
(GLD proxy) to the GDX benchmark and the broad
market (S&P500 proxy) to show just how badly the
miners are lagging to the metal. The week before
last as the geopolitical nerves ratcheted up and other
macro components fell in favour of gold in its safe
haven mode, GDX managed to keep up with bullion
(even though the miners are supposed to offer beta
to the metal), but this week saw the gravitational pull
of equities take over and while GDX managed to put
up a bit of a fight when gold bullion kicked higher
and spot pinged the U$2,000/oz line, there’s no
hiding the fact that the miners once again failed to
do what they’re supposed to do and offer upside to
their underlying product.
So to our list of ten and we did slightly better than the GDX, with four winners (NEM, WPM,
AGI, EGO) that include decent moves from Newmont (NEM up 6.0%) and Eldorado (EGO up
5.6%), then six losers (GOLD, AEM, KGC, BTG, HL, WDOFF) with Wesdome (WDOFF down
5.1%) worst of the bunch. for the first time since
The 2023 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
comparative to GDX control
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
We’re now 1.55% ahead of the benchmark, a tad up on last week’s breakthrough move and
that’s a good thing, but we’re long way from the finish line and this is gold mining; anything
can happen in the last ten weeks of the year.
Newmont (NEM) and Barrick (GOLD) (ABX.to): Wednesday saw Newmont report and as
this chart shows, the market decided its lacklustre earnings weren’t quite as bad as expected
and the stock saw some re-buying. But we choose a
ten-day chart to show the bigger story and over the
last two weeks, Barrick (GOLD) is still in a clear lead
over its big rival.
A rival that’s about to get even bigger. We’re now
in the final days of the legalizing of the approved
merger between NEM and Newcrest and while the
date may change, November 8th is pencilled in as
the official date when the fusion is consummated.
We await the new official share count, but the pro-
forma implies New Newmont with 1,092.4m shares
out, which implies a post-close market cap of
U$42.57m. On that, it’s worth reflecting that the
supposed ticket price of the NCM takeover was U$17.8Bn (0.4 NEM shares for every NCM share
at the time), but the eventual accretion is just U$4.2BN and somewhere along the way, NEM
has seen over U$13Bn of market cap disappear in 2023.
21
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2yluj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6gua ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3pes ht01 ht71 ht42 ts1tco ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92
The 2023 Producer Basket: Percentage difference
between GDX benchmark & basket (negative = IKN ahead)
4.0%
ikn 3.0%
gdx control
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
source: NYSE, IKN calcs -3.0%
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2yluj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6gua ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3pes ht01 ht71 ht42 ts1tco ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92
source: IKN calcs, NYSE data

The TinyCaps List
After 43 weeks of 2023, the TinyCaps show a gain of 19.63% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Aurelius Min AUL.v 0.07 49.787 1.00 0.02 -71.4%
Coast Copper COCO.v 0.045 64.001 2.88 0.045 0.0%
District Metals DMX.v 0.075 86.891 16.94 0.195 160.0%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.13 69.962 4.55 0.065 -50.0%
Manitou Gold MTU.v 0.02 344.568 18.95 0.055 175.0%
Nine Mile Metals NINE.cse 0.29 57.025 3.42 0.06 -79.3%
Palamina Corp PA.v 0.08 65.285 7.51 0.115 43.8%
Precipitate Gold PRG.v 0.075 130.367 7.82 0.06 -20.0%
South Star STS.v 0.55 40.129 31.30 0.78 41.8%
Viva Gold VAU.v 0.14 106.721 14.41 0.135 -3.6%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 19.63%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $20m. They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a
little and allowed sub-U$20m market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, but it was a particularly depressing exercise to trawl through the whole of the TSXV and find companies
that are small enough, but with life in them. The vast majority of sub-$20m stocks are broken stocks, either
traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2023. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams
or people with good peer reputations.
TinyCaps, 2023 weekly tracker
50%
The average clicked up very slightly via the combo of 45%
40%
three week-over-week winners (PA.v, STS.v, VAU.v)
35%
including the biggest move in Viva Gold (VAU.v up 30%
25%
17.4%), four unchanged stocks (AUL.v, MTU.v,
20%
NINE.cse, PRG.v) and three losers (COCO.v, DMX.v, 15%
10%
LMS.v) including the biggest drop in Latin Metals
5%
(LMS.v down 18.8%). 0%
Latin Metals (LMS.v): Perhaps the market got
wind of the news before LMS told the market on
Friday after the closing bell, because there were zero buyers all week and any small seller was
forced to dump into the bid. As for the NR, Friday saw this (15) published entitled “Latin Metals
Seeking Partners for Cerro Bayo Gold-Silver Project in Argentina and Lacsha Copper Project,
Peru.” We knew that Lacsha was ready for a JV partner and that LMS had been shopping it
around, so that part of the Friday news was a simple “We haven’t found anyone yet, anyone
else out there?” call into the ether. The bad news was the Cerro Bayo part, because that was
the property under JV to Barrick and in the words of LMS Friday, “Barrick has provided notice to
Latin Metals of their intention to relinquish the Option and terminate the Agreement, effective
January 25, 2024”. Clearly a budgeting decision from inside GOLD, but it leaves LMS with
upkeep bills to pay instead of enjoying the small-ish but useful option payments it was getting
from Barrick as they worked the property.
Viva Gold (VAU.v): Why did VAU pop a couple of cents on a small flurry (144k) of volume
Friday? It’s certainly not on recent newsflow, as the last NR from the company was a quarter
ago (literally, July 24th) and there’s been a disappointing level of activity from the company. It’s
22
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2yluj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6gua ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3pes ht01 ht71 ht42 ts1tco ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92
source: IKN calcs, TSX data

quite possible that it’s simply because it has the word “Gold” in its corporate title and someone
decided it was a way of playing the U$2k/oz news.
South Star (STS.v): After that big move on 1.4m volume one the previous Friday, on the back
of the news that China was restricting graphite exports,
STS continued its run last week while volume didn’t
continue in the same high levels, it still managed to
average 100k per day over the five days and add 6c to
last weekend’s close.
This year’s TinyCaps basket has been a bit of a damp
squib and while seeing MTU bought out at a premium
has helped support the average and District Metals
(DMX.v) has made some permitting headway in Sweden,
there hasn’t been a lot of fun news from the bunch.
South Star is the best of the group this year thanks to its
construction activities going reasonably well and now
being in the right place at the right time on this China news.
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future
I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
Hurricane Otis and a Mining conference
The hurricane that slammed into the South Mexico coastal city of Acapulco, Capital of Guerrero
State, on Wednesday morning came as a sudden and extremely dangerous surprise. Until
Tuesday afternoon a moderate tropical storm, when the weather system hit the warm waters
off the West coast of Mexico is developed very rapidly into a high category hurricane and
proceeded to do untold amounts of damage to Acapulco and surrounded area. As at writing this
note, 39 people are reported dead, that figure is highly likely to rise and this desk offers sincere
condolences to all those who have lost loved ones.
Acapulco last week was also the location of one of Mexico’s main mining events, the 35th edition
of the biannual International Mining Convention, which was supposed to have run from the 23rd
to the 27th and this year was hosting around 10,000 delegates, dignitaries and country
Ambassadors included, but the disaster that struck on the 25th put paid to that idea in no
uncertain fashion. The storm struck during the convention’s gala evening, guests in attendance
were not allowed to leave the main hall (a smart decision by organizers, they only found out
about the widespread destruction the next morning) and they ended up sleeping in-situ (as well
as they could), or simply drinking the bar dry. We have no word on whether all delegates are
back home safe and sound but we do know that the hotel staff and conference orgnanizers did
all they could to safeguard their guests under very difficult circumstances and deserve high
commendation. A Spanish language report on the damage suffered by the specific hotel and
23

videos of the winds lashing at reception areas, smashing windows, forcing doors and causing
general havoc is available here (16).
Burkina Faso raises mining royalties
Not a country on our normal LatAm beat, but as we care about the Yaramoko mine owned by
Fortuna Silver (FSM), keep an eye on a selection of juniors in the West Africa region and have
also run the ruler over Orezone (ORE.to) on more than one occasion (and I know for a fact
some readers own that particular stock), here’s some news. According to this Bloomberg report
out Friday (17), the State royalty on gold mining has been bumped up from the previous limit
of 5% on gold prices over U$1,500/oz to the following:
 U$1,500 to U$1,700/oz: 6%
 U$1,700/oz to U$2,000/oz: 6.5%
 Above U$2,000/oz: 7%
For context and applied at the U$2,000/oz gold rate, the new law should add around U$25m to
annual royalty payments to the State.
Argentina Presidential election fall-out
We’ve done a lot on this race recently and as there’s more to come in November, the idea
today was to keep comment as brief as brief as possible but as things turned out, I’ve written
too many words again. We covered the headline result last weekend and the surprise sprung by
government candidate Sergio Massa, who is now in the run-off with Javier Milei. Here are four
bullet points of stats:
 Some 26,291,718 votes were cast, that’s 77.65% participation rate (for what is
ostensibly a mandatory vote), some 3.7% lower than the last Presidential election and
the lowest rate since 2008.
 Sergio Massa got 9,645,983, or 36.68%, of valid votes. That’s almost 3m more votes
than Massa + his ticket rival (Juan Grabois) received in the PASO election.
 Javier Milei got 7,884,336, or 29.98%, of valid votes. That’s just over half a million
more votes than he received in the PASO election, but context is necessary because the
PASO vote grand total was 23,269,296, almost 3m fewer than last Sunday’s main event.
 Patricia Bullrich got 9,645,983, or 36.68%, of valid votes. Notably, that’s 628k votes
fewer than Bullrich and + her ticket rival (Horacio Larreta) received in the PASO
election, which a quite a falling away especially when we consider there were almost
3m extra votes cast this time.
The fall-out from last Sunday has been total catnip for LatAm political junkies (e.g. me) and
there are a dozen angles we could go into, but perhaps the main one is the way that the
Mauricio Macri-led Juntos Por El Cambio (Together For Change, JxC), with Bullrich as candidate,
has fallen apart in a matter of days with accusations and recriminations thrown around between
the erstwhile friends and partners. The rumblings started on Sunday evening and Bullrich’s poor
showing in the election, the explosion happened when Bullich (and Macri) announced they
would be endorsing Milei in the run-off. Though politically understandable, Milei’s polemic and
confrontational style is too much for the left-ish parts of the JxC coalition and there’s too much
bad blood between several of the inter-party protagonists. Two of the big coalition partners
immediately spoke out against the Bullrich/Macri decision to back Milei and it quickly
deteriorated into a parade of press conferences in which personal insults were thrown as a
matter of course at Bullrich and especially Macri. The upshot leaves most the Bullrich vote going
to Milei next month, but it’s difficult to see him getting all the votes from the Bullrich block and
reasonable projections have Massa picking up between 15% and 30% of those voters in the
run-off. To those we need to add the votes that went to the 4th placed candidate, Cordoba
Peronist stalwart Juan Schiaretti who ran on the national level as a type of protest against the
Left wing influences behind Massa but, when push comes to shove on November 19th, most of
those votes are going to consider Massa the “least worst”.
24

Which brings us to the polls taken since last Sunday and one place that’s had its finger on the
pulse of post-election opinion surveys is Argentina’s biggest circulation daily paper, Clarin.
That’s useful for me to get it all in one spot, it’s also interesting as editorially Clarin is clearly
opposed to the current government (and extremely critical of CFK and her passed husband
Nestor before her, it’s difficult to over-estimate the amount of hatred and vitriol between the
controlling groups behind Clarin and CFK). Clarin is traditionally right wing and “Macrista” (i.e. a
supporter of Mauricio Macri), so it’s odd to see it suddenly taking a more neutral editorial line
and treading a path between Milei on the far/populist/libertarian (or whatever else you prefer,
we’ve done this before) right and Massa on the kinda-left-but-not-so-bad-left-and-could-move-
central-if-we-nudge-him-enough left. Anyway, these links take you to recent reports on post-
election poll readings (18) (19) and while there’s more data in each, these graphics cover the
headline numbers. Here we see the pollster Analogias, widely understood to be pro-CFK and
lefty biased, giving Massa an eight point lead over Milei for next month’s run-off election
(Spanish uses its version of the French ballotage for such votes):
That’s a big projected leas for Massa and Milei’s only silver lining is the 17.5% who say they are
undecided. Meanwhile, a poll from CB Consultores that took a reading just one day after the
result put it at a statistical dead-heat, with 1,715 responses putting Milei on 50.7% and Massa
on 49.3%. Notably, CB Consultores was criticized for being “too Kirchnerist” in its poll results
before the election but turned out to be the most accurate prediction of all the Argentina
pollster companies (and there are dozens of them).
This makes it tighter, but please note this CB Consultores poll was taken before the JxC
coalition split asunder in such a dramatic and vitriolic way. Finally, one other poll released on
Friday from pollster “Proyección” has Massa on 44.6% of valid votes, Milei on 34.2% and the
others undecided or spoiling ballots.
25

This time last weekend. My initial reaction was that the run-off was to close to call. I also said
that I’d reserve judgment on a proactive call until the last week of the campaign, but after due
cogitation on Monday it began to dawn on me that Massa was favourite, before the JxC drama
or the polls starting showing Massa’s initial lead and I wrote as much on Twitter Monday (20):
“…last night my 1st reaction was "too close to call" but on reflection it looks v difficult
for Milei, so Sergio Massa now 80% fave for the win. Arg sez "No More Locos In
Power".
It’s not just the politics, either. There’s a word in Argentine politics (in fact Latin America in
general, but it’s a very common term in Argentina) which is “Presidenciable”, literally
“Presidentiable”, coined to express the mix of seriousness, policies, charisma and character the
populace looks for from their potential Presidents. It doesn’t mean you have to have them all,
it’s not dependent on your political leanings to the left or right, it doesn’t mean you have to be
a particularly nice person, either. It’s a combo that’s difficult to pin down but you know it when
you see it. For some examples, he’s definitely not my cup of tea, but Donald Trump is very
presidenciable. Also definitely not my cup of tea, but Justin Trudeau is also presidenciable.
Closer to (my) home and even further left, Gustavo Petro of Colombia is presidenciable while
over on the right, Daniel Noboa of Ecuador is also presidenciable (in fact he’s one of the better
political things to have happened in the continent this year). I also get why Jair Bolsonaro made
it to the top job in Brazil, also why Lula da Silva got the better of him last time, they both have
that magic touch. However, it doesn’t matter if his policies agree with the electorate or not,
Argentina is looking hard at Javier Milei and saying that he’s not presidenciable, not in his
current character role at least. For sure he attracts a loyal and even fanatical hard core base
following but his passion quickly turns into angry outbursts, his private life is known for
scandalous behaviour, his diatribes against any institutional seat of power are rather
pathological (using the word carefully), he does himself zero favours by going after Pope
Francisco the way he does (not only is Bergoglio Argentine, but half the nation is still practising
Catholic) and the way he reacts to certain people and situations is odd, to say the least.
This race is not over, after all this is Argentina where anything can happen and often does. But
from here Massa is now clear favourite for the win next month and if that happens, it would be
one of the most remarkable comebacks for any sitting executive, considering the current
financial mess in which the country find itself. To round off, we repeat the same message we’ve
relayed about the mining sector that we’ve used since this race began; do not fear the victor. A
Sergio Massa presidency would certainly bring a different macroeconomic environment to a
Javier Milei presidency and those would affect businesses in general, but when it comes to our
focus sector of mining both are mining-friendly these days and it doesn’t matter whether the
English language press labels Massa as “Left Wing” or Milei as “Hard Right (sidebar note;
neither are true), as both have expressed their desire to expand and grow the mining industry
in Argentina, particularly the FDI dollar-rich cash cows of large-scale lithium and copper mines
projects. It also worth reflecting that under the current government of Alberto Fernández,
where Sergio Massa is the current FinMin, the mining sector has improved in leaps and bounds
compared to where it was under the previous administration of President Macri. So when the
casual observer comments things along the lines of “Argentina is untouchable if Massa wins”,
let them have their say but take the under on their position.
The Cobre Panama protests
We previewed the week just gone in last weekend’s “Panama: More protests coming for Cobre
Panama” and sure enough, the protests were vociferous and disruptive all week and look set to
continue into the days to come. Also, it didn’t help matters one bit when mine owner First
Quantum (FM.to) threw a large can of gasoline on the fire by publishing this NR (21) on
Monday (22). Here’s the body of the text:
TORONTO, Oct. 22, 2023 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- First Quantum Minerals Ltd. (“First Quantum”
or “the Company”) (TSX: FM) announced today that Law 406, which approves the refreshed
mining concession contract (“Concession Contract”) for the Cobre Panamá mine, was published
in the Official Gazette of Panamá on October 20, 2023.
On October 20, 2023, the National Assembly in Panamá approved Bill 1100, being the proposal
26

for approval of the Concession Contract for the Cobre Panamá mine, in the third debate of the
plenary session with a vote of 47 in favour out of a total of 55 votes registered. On the same day,
President Laurentino Cortizo sanctioned Bill 1100 into Law 406 and this was subsequently
published in the Official Gazette. The enactment of Law 406 marks the final step in revising the
legal framework for the Cobre Panamá mine.
“We are pleased that the revised contract establishes the basis for a renewed long-term
relationship between Panamá and First Quantum. This will provide for both continued investment
in the mine and for its important contribution to Panamá and its people. We are committed to the
obligations of the contract and to responsible stewardship of the Cobre Panamá mine, including a
continued positive impact on our workforce, the surrounding communities and the environment,”
said Tristan Pascall, Chief Executive Officer.
With publication in the Official Gazette, payments to cover taxes and royalties up to the year-end
2022 of approximately $395 million and certain amounts payable for 2023 corporate tax
instalments, withholding taxes and quarterly royalty payments will be due within 30 days.
In an already rarefied atmosphere, that presser was a classic red rag to bull and the protests
set to begin on Monday suddenly snowballed into mass protests all over the country that
continue to this day. It also made the headline of Latin America Daily Briefing (one of the best
ways to keep abreast of regional current affairs in the English language, the free mailer sign-up
is recommended) and the excellent Jordana Timerman summed up press coverage on the issue
in this way:
Massive protests have rocked Panama for days earlier this week, in response to the
government’s decision to award a Canadian company a 20-year extended concession
to exploit the largest open pit copper mine in Central America. Demonstrations shut
down key highways around the country. Several people have been injured in clashes
between protesters and police, reports El País. Dozens of people have been arrested,
reports Reuters.
Some locals and civic organizations have opposed the contract due largely to concerns
about the mine's environmental impact. Demonstrators say the contract was drafted
without community consultation and in a record-three days.
It is unclear how persuasive these arguments will prove against the economic boon of
a single mining site that already brings in 3% of the nation’s gross domestic product,
reports the Associated Press.
The protests “are the latest sign of discontent in the country, casting doubt on the
future of mining and posing a major challenge for President Laurentino Cortizo’s
government ahead of elections next May,” writes Rich Brown at Americas Quarterly.
The only thing she missed was the fun on Friday, as LADB had gone to press by then, when
first a new round marches stopped normal business in the capital, closed down shops and
restaurants and even surrounded the Presidential resident with President Laurentino Cortizo
firmly ensconced inside. Here’s how La Prensa ran with its headline coverage on Friday (23)
(translated):
“For the fifth successive day, Panama faced an intense day of protests against the
contract signed between the State and Minera Panamá, a complex scenario that has
paralysed the country and its economic activity.
“From the early hours of yesterday Thursday, several locations of the country have
been blocked, while at the same time the Chamber of Commerce, Industries and
Farming of Panama asked the government to approve “an immediate moratorium” on
new mining concessions and to review the Mining Resources Law, as an urgent
measure to answer the public clamour against mining and the approved contract.”
Then late Friday President Cortizo bowed to the pressure being heaped on him and announced
that there would be no new concessions granted in Panama as of then and signed an executive
decree to that end, in the hope it would assuage the protests. Here’s Reuters on that (24):
Oct 27 (Reuters) - Panama will reject all new mining projects, the president said on
Friday, as his government defends a controversial contract extending operations for
two decades at a major copper mine that has sparked growing protests demanding its
cancellation.
President Laurentino Cortizo announced that the new mining restrictions will apply to
both future mining projects as well as those currently seeking permits.
"All of them will be rejected," he wrote in a post on X. "This ban will go into effect from
today."
We also saw a lawsuit filed with the Supreme Court on Friday stating that the contract with
27

Cobre Panama is unconstitutional and should be annulled. Interestingly, that filing was formally
accepted for judgment by the Supreme Court judges and they now have a maximum of ten
days to come to a decision. If annulled, we’re back to square one and Cobre Panama will have
to renegotiate a deal with the State (and certainly pay more). If the contract is deemed legal,
expect the protests to start up again as this is now as much a political football with the May
2024 Presidential elections in mind as anything else.
But the protesters hadn’t finished making headlines as on Saturday, a group using a flotilla of
boats (some reports of eight craft) entered the Panama Cobre dedicated seaport at Donoso in
order to block shipments. Here’s mining dot com on that (25):
On the sixth day of protests against the recent approval of the mining concession for
the Cobre Panamá copper mine, activists broke into the Punta Rincón International
Port, in the northern Colón province, which is used by Minera Panamá to ship copper
abroad.
The protesters arrived on a speedboat chanting slogans against the mine but were
later escorted out by a patrol from the National Aeronaval Service.
Right after the incident, which took place on Saturday, the subsidiary of Canada’s First
Quantum Minerals (TSX: FM) issued a media statement deeming the protesters’
incursion as “violent and illegal.”
“We are deeply worried about this incident, which represents a significant threat to our
operations and the safety of our staff,” the communiqué reads. “We call on the relevant
authorities to safeguard the wellbeing of our workers, protect our facilities and preserve
the integrity of our business operations.”
This is an interesting development, because the only way you’re going to get a reaction out of
FM.to is via its back pocket and while street protests can go on, the mine will be able to
continue to operate without much issue. However, block its product exit and both the world
markets and the company will suddenly pay attention. We repeat; some of this is a generalized
public protest against shady Congressional practices and the assumption of corruption among
elected members, but equally there’s a clear electoral campaign angle to this protest move and
as such, this issue isn’t going to go away until May next year at least, the date of the next
Presidential election. A political football of considerable size.
Stop Press: This evening, President Cortizo has ordered a national referendum on the contract
with Cobre Panama for December 17th. This move will probably calm protests, allow the mine to
continue exporting and, no matter what the result is, the production will continue into the New
Year and beyond the May election, even if there are contract renegotiations required. In this
way, Cortizo has just handed this particular hot potato on to his successor.
Market Watching
Revival Gold (RVG.v) is one of many
Last weekend we updated on one stock that caught our eye at Beaver Creek, Revival Gold
(RVG.v) and the way it’s done roughly what we expected it to do, i.e. hit price headwinds due
to a tough market for financing. A quote: “…our job, as minnow retail, is to stay out the way
until the financing is announced and the market reacts accordingly.” In the five trading days
since those words, things got worse for RVG:
28

Down another 5c to close at a new multi-year low of 33.5c, RVG is getting whacked as the
market takes advantage of its thing treasury position and pushes the stock lower. This
phenomenon is hardly unique to RVG either, we’ve seen another example close at hand with
Pan Global being cut in half (30c to 15c) before finding a recent modest rally to 18c now it has
secured necessary treasury. Another example showed up last week in the shape of Generation
Mining (GENM.v), which was an 80c stock at the start of the year but then did this on Friday…
…when reacting to the news that the company was running a $15m bought deal, full warrant
attached. As mentioned on TwitterX when this news hit (26) Fundies analysis gets simple at this
stage of the market:
1) look at treasury
2) if your exploreco needs to raise money soon
3) sell it now
It may be pithy and short, but I stand by that call and it would behove the reader to take a
good look at their portfolio before Tax Loss Selling season begins in force. If your held
exploreco is running on fumes, of if it only has enough to crawl into the new year, now is the
time to liquidate because thin treasury explorecos are getting hit hard by any hint of treasury
weakness.
Conclusion
IKN754 is done, we end with some brief bullet points:
 I’m going to stick with Fortuna and Equinox as my trades on the gold price, but
Eldorado (EGO) is looking even better now than when I picked it out as a live prospect
for this year’s Producer Basket. Production improving, costs under control and Skouries
in the mid-distance, waiting to re-rate the company in big style.
 Eyes on Equinox (EQX) this Tuesday and Wednesday as it reports its quarter. Also
Amerigo on Wednesday morning, but we know that one is going to be a soft quarter.
 Sergio Massa looks in good shape to be Argentina’s next President. What that does to
Argentina’s shape is a different debate for another day.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stock is Minera Alamos (MAI.v). Flash
updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best wishes, Mark
29

Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://icsg.org/press-releases/#
(2) https://twitter.com/michaelbhorner/status/1717898564653760716
(3) https://www.cochilco.cl/Paginas/Sala-de-Prensa/Noticias.aspx?ID=663
(4) https://www.lme.com/en/metals/non-ferrous/lme-copper#Trading+day+summary
(5) https://www.juniorminingnetwork.com/junior-miner-news/press-releases/2150-tsx/solg/150110-solgold-company-
update.html
(6) https://www.newsminer.com/news/local_news/group-sues-alaska-department-of-transportation-over-manh-choh-ore-
haul-venture/article_8b58e480-7047-11ee-ad7e-e3b0ff8213bd.html
(7) https://www.adn.com/business-economy/2023/10/26/group-sues-state-of-alaska-to-halt-mining-company-from-
trucking-ore-on-interior-public-roads/
(8) https://www.equinoxgold.com/news/equinox-gold-to-announce-third-quarter-financial-and-operating-results-on-
october-31-2023/
(9) https://twitter.com/Mark_IKN/status/1716619011364905251
(10) https://emportal.ink/3s49iS8
(11) https://www.df.cl/empresas/mineria/excedentes-de-codelco-cayeron-65-a-septiembre-golpeados-por-retroceso
(12) https://www.ceicdata.com/en/china/shanghai-futures-exchange-commodity-futures-stock
(13) https://atacamacopper.ca/news/atacama-copper-to-combine-with-tcp1-to-create-a-diversified-exploration-and-
development-company-in-latin-america/
(14) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qvi0nMGE_LQ
(15) https://latin-metals.com/news-releases/latin-metals-seeking-partners-for-cerro-bayo-gold-silver-project-in-argentina-
and-lacsha-copper-project-peru/
(16) https://es-us.noticias.yahoo.com/acapulco-encerrados-con-mariachis-en-medio-de-otis-sin-imaginar-el-infierno-
que-les-esperaba-afuera-222555592.html
(17) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-27/burkina-faso-targets-bigger-royalties-as-gold-production-
drops#xj4y7vzkg
(18) https://www.clarin.com/politica/massa-vs-milei-encuesta-llego-cristina-numeros-balotaje_0_DXUMq2DgXt.html
(19) https://www.clarin.com/politica/nueva-encuesta-balotaje-dato-clave-reparten-votos-patricia-
bullrich_0_ptYK9RqENq.html
(20) https://twitter.com/Mark_IKN/status/1716491148045307998
(21) https://www.first-quantum.com/English/announcements/announcements-details/2023/Cobre-Panam-Mining-
Concession-Contract-Enacted-Into-Law-in-Panam/default.aspx
(22) https://latinamericadailybriefing.substack.com/p/panama-protests-mine-concession
(23) https://www.prensa.com/sociedad/crisis-sigue-viva-el-clamor-contra-el-contrato-minero-llega-a-finca-de-cortizo-y-a-
la-presidencia-de-la-republica/
(24) https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/panama-econ-minister-backs-contract-with-first-quantum-despite-protests-
2023-10-27/
(25) https://www.mining.com/panamanian-protesters-break-into-international-port-used-by-first-quantum-minerals/
(26) https://twitter.com/Mark_IKN/status/1717884417920663711
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2022
Closed in 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
30

Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
Goldshore Res GSHR.v Nov'22 C$0.18 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 88.9% Quick profit taken
Palamina Corp PA.v Dec'22 C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.08 -72.9% Clear-out of underperformer
Pure Gold PGM.h Dec'22 C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.015 -89.3% tiny trade on vh risk, went Ch11
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Set-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
31

Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
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Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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