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The IKN Weekly
Week 753, October 22nd 2023
Contents
This Week: In Today’s Edition, Finally, a hint of Wall St gold buying.
Fundamental Analysis: Ero Copper (ERO.to): A price drop and a potential entry point.
Stocks to Follow: Libero Copper (LBC.v), Rugby Resources (RUG.v), SolGold (SOLG.to),
Fortuna Silver (FSM), Minera Alamos (MAI.v), Provenance Gold (PAU.cse), Newcore Gold
(NCAU.v), Amerigo Resources (ARG.to).
The Copper Basket: Overview, Western Copper & Gold (WRN.to), Pan Global Resources
(PGZ.v), Oroco Resources (OCO.v), Kodiak Copper (KDK.v).
Producer Basket: Overview, Newmont (NEM) and Barrick (GOLD) (ABX.to), Wesdome
(WDOFF) (WDO.to).
The TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Palamina (PA.v), South Star (STS.v).
Regional Politics: Argentina Round One Presidential election results, Ecuador: CONAIE and
the “stone in Noboa’s shoe”, Panama: More protests coming for Cobre Panama, Peru’s Mining
Minister selling air.
Market Watching: SilverCrest (SILV) (SIL.to) redux, Following up on Revival Gold (RVG.v).
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
In Today’s Edition
 In a series of recent editions I laid out my concerns that copper was about to go
through a period of renewed weakness. It’s no fun to have been correct, but what that
does is open up the sector to new opportunities, assuming of course that the second
part of the house theory works out and this weakness turns out to be temporary. We
do a lot of copper stories in The Copper Basket of course, but we also feature a real
sector star as main event in today’s Fundies section. Ero Copper (ERO.to) has seen a
sharp share price drop recently and with catalysts in its future, this may turn out to be
a window of opportunity.
 The gold market continued to be buoyant on the back of continued geopolitical nerves
and a Fed that is telling us that it won’t take its hikes (much) further. Our picks to play
the near-term trade, Fortuna (FSM) and Equinox (EQX), responded in good style and
we hope they continue that trend into their Q3 earnings.
 A surprise in Argentina tonight, as the government candidate Sergio Massa did better
than expected and beat our second placed Javier Milei by six points. Those two go into
next month’s run-off and its’ anyone’s guess as to who will win it. What we do know is
that reports of wholesale revolution in Argentina’s political scene were exaggerated.
 All that and a lot more in an editon that covers plenty of bases. We even have Top Pick
Minera Alamos finally showing a pulse. Good.
Finally, a hint of Wall St gold buying
1

We’ve done chuhnkier intros recently, so only a brief intro note today because we have real
work to do instead of wondering how rich we could be when people start dropping bombs on
other people. It took until Friday for something to register, but we finally saw the GLD physical
inventory put in an uptick on this geopolitically driven run in the price of gold:
GLD gold holdings, 2023 YTD (metric tonnes)
960
950
940
930
920
910
900
890
880
870
860
850
840
Friday added 15 metric tonnes of physical gold to GLD vaults and moved total inventory from a
848.24mt (the lowest level since August 2019) to 863.24mt. A sharp little spike and while one
swallow does not make a summer, it’s the first real reaction we’ve seen from the North
American markets to the recent rise in gold. Indeed, on that drop-then-pop our inventory/price
ratio, used to gauge sentiment for gold ownership among Wall St.’s great and good, moved
from a new historic low of 4.63X on Thursday to 4.76X by Friday’s close, which is still extremely
low and theoretically, leaves a lot of room to the upside.
We’ve thrashed over this subject too many times already, so one quick reminder that the day
Wall St starts to realize it’s light gold and has to compete for physical bullion with the world’s
central bank buyers, is the day gold really sets off for the races.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Ero Copper (ERO.to): A price drop and a potential entry point
Some guy who wore a 99 on his shirt once advised the world to skate to where the puck is
going to be and that’s basic premise behind our look
today at Ero Copper (ERO.to), one of the base
metals success stories of the last ten years that has
seen a significant price drop in the last few weeks.
This five year chart (right) shows the rollercoaster
ride this stock has enjoyed and alongside the recent
drop from over C$30 to the sub-$19 price that
weekend, let’s also note how low ERO dropped
during the copper price slump of 2022. It was around
that low point that I started considering ERO as a
potential trade but before I could make up my mind
(and due to a preference at the time for Amerigo
(ARG.to), I was foolish enough to let that window of
opportunity slip.
That’s all now in the past, today’s Ero Copper considers the company it now is (rather than
what it might have been in the past. The plan today is to look at its main moving parts,
consider its production mix and current financial position and once done, come to a decision on
the trading potential it offers. We begin in standard style, with our structure top box:
2
32/1/3 32/1/31 32/1/32 32/2/2 32/2/21 32/2/22 32/3/4 32/3/41 32/3/42 32/4/3 32/4/31 32/4/32 32/5/3 32/5/31 32/5/32 32/6/2 32/6/21 32/6/22 32/7/2 32/7/21 32/7/22 32/8/1 32/8/11 32/8/12 32/8/13 32/9/01 32/9/02 32/9/03 32/01/01 32/01/02
mt 5.60 GLD: Inventory/Price Ratio, 2023 YTD
source: SPDR GLD data 5.50
5.40
5.30
5.20
5.10
5.00
4.90
4.80
4.70
4.60
4.50
32/1/3 32/1/31 32/1/32 32/2/2 32/2/21 32/2/22 32/3/4 32/3/41 32/3/42 32/4/3 32/4/31 32/4/32 32/5/3 32/5/31 32/5/32 32/6/2 32/6/21 32/6/22 32/7/2 32/7/21 32/7/22 32/8/1 32/8/11 32/8/12 32/8/13 32/9/01 32/9/02 32/9/03 32/01/01 32/01/02
Source: SPDR data, IKN calcs

Shares out: 93.212m
Options: 1.727m
Warrants: Zero
RSU/DSU/PSU: 1.333m
Fully diluted: 96.272m
Current share price: C$18.94
Market Cap: C$1.765Bn
All prices are in Canadian Dollars unless stated. Forex U$0.75=CAD$1
Since its recent peak at the beginning of August, ERO has seen over a billion Canadian Dollars
lost from its market cap. That’s all to do with the bearish backdrop for mining stocks in general,
along with the recent drop in copper prices. It’s also to do with serious sellers, as big holder
Fidelity has dropped around 5m shares from its holding and at the last regulatory filing was
down to 10.2m shares, around 11% of total shares out. Another big insto holder is T. Rowe
Price with just over 10%, meanwhile the director roster holds a little over 10% of total shares
(biggest holder the founders CEO David Strang and Noel Dunn).
With the company’s operations apparently going well and its expansion project due to come on
line next year, in a nutshell this is the potential opportunity ERO.to affords us today. Copper is
going through a weak near-term period with supply
outstripping demand, but the longer-term forecasts of a sharp
demand increase as the world transitions toward new energy
sources for power supply, transport etc are well-known to this
desk and its readership. Therefore, in much the same way that
we’re betting on beaten-up gold stocks such as Fortuna Silver
(FSM) and Equinox Gold (EQX) to rebound as metals
conditions and their own production base change for the
better, so ERO.to may offer the same opportunity in the
copper space.
ERO operations: There are three main parts to today’s Ero
Copper and as this map (right) shows, they are all in Brazil.
I’ve also scribbled a basic scale on that map to remind readers
of the size of ERO’s host country. Aside from its corporate
offices in Belo Horizonte (a good choice, very pleasant city)
and São Paulo (unavoidable I suppose), these are the three
locations noted by the company:
 Caraiba: Located in Bahia, this is its main copper mine complex and is made
up of three operations, namely the Pilar and Vermelhos underground mines
and the Surubim open pit mine. The ERO flagship asset
 Xavantina: Located in Matto Grosso, Xavantina is a small-ish gold mine with a
small silver kicker and a profitable operation at current gold prices and costs.
 Tucumã: Located in Para in the North of the country, this copper mine project
is in advanced development stage, the build-out nearing completion and is
scheduled for first production in the first half of next year.
The combination of two operating and
profitable mine complexes, plus a
development project that’s about to bump up
production considerably, is the attraction of
this company. To give an overview of its
production levels and expected current mine
life is shown on this chart, lifted from slide 5
of its latest corporate presentation (right).
Three things to note:
3

1) The above is copper only, it does not take into account gold production from Xavantina.
2) The production profile has improved tremendously compared to the plan at IPO (grey
area left). This is due to the expansion of reserves/resources at its current flagship
Caraiba operation, the success of what the company called “Project Honeypot” that
took advantage of high grading zones left behind by previous operators, plus the
impending start of production at its expansion Tucumã project
3) Even without further exploration, development or any new mines coming online, ERO
now has a long mine life profile.
Now for a potted profile of the three assets, starting with the flagship.
Caraiba: This is its main event at ERO and this year, is on track to meet production guidance
of between 44,000 and 47,000 tonnes (97m lbs to 103.6m lbs) copper. As noted above, there
are three sources of feed to the Caraiba mill, namely the underground operations Pilar and
Vermelhos, then the recently reconditioned Surubim open pit operation. The chart below left
shows the tonnage breakdowns from each mine, then below right shows the average grade
from each one plus the average blended head grade that is subsequently processed.
ERO: Mined tonnes at Caraiba
1000000
900000
800000 700000
600000
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
Processed tonnage is normally close to mined tonnage, as this chart below left shows. Then
comes the paydirt chart below right, which we present in millions of pounds copper (as
produced and sold in concentrate). As you can probably make out, the Q3 forecast is slightly
lower and then Q4 rebounds to new high levels; this is as per company guidance and ERO
expects the commissioning of its new ball mill there to improve its production numbers as from
4q23 and through 2024.
Xavantina: These charts give the general overview of this small but very profitable gold mine.
Production revolves around the 12,000 oz to 13,000oz per quarter level for gold, with minor
silver credits. As these first charts show, there’s been an interesting change in the production
mix recently at Xavantina with tonnages dropping but head grades rising at the mine goes
through a higher grade area of its vein system.
4
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2
mt Caraiba mineral grade Cu%
Surubim
Vermelhos
Pilar
source: company filings
%59.1 %89.1 %81.2 %62.2 %03.2 %31.2 %09.1 %10.2 %87.1 %47.1 %86.1 %48.1
%33.1
%55.1
4.0%
3.5% 3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2
Pilar
Vermelhos
Surubim
avg head grade
source: company filings
ERO: Tonnage mined/processed, per qtr
959706 170726 841355 744384 495795 299355 666275 913646 032695 524108 527027 058547 845277 128048
1000000
900000
800000
700000
600000 500000 400000 300000
200000
100000
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2
mt ERO: Copper production & sales, per qtr (Mlbs)
total mined tonnes
total ore processed
source: company filings
0.32 3.32 4.52 6.22 5.72 3.22 7.32 3.72 1.22 5.82 2.32 3.92 9.02 6.52 3.42 7.82
35
30
25
20 15 10
5
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
Mlbs Cu
Cu prod (lb)
Cu sales (lb)
source: company filings, IKN ests

ERO at Xavantina: Ore mined/processed, per qtr
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
With recoveries normally in the early 90% range (bar the latest 2q23 which was unexpectedly
low), this has resulted in a steady production and sales schedule. As the chart below right
shows, guidance is for these current levels to move up slightly for the last two quarters of this
year as recoveries improve and grade stay high.
The final chart for Xavantina is on cash cost
per ounce, as this is a very cheap mine to run
on a per-oz basis. The current AISC is high
due to sustaining capital work and the
underlying royalties, but even if we stay at the
current U$1,100/oz or so (as guided by the
company in its 2q23 MD&A) this is still a
highly profitable operation at U$1,900/oz gold
spot.
Tucumã Project: The third and final element
in today’s ERO.to make-up is the Tucumã copper development project. According to the NR of
last Thursday (1), the mine is now 70% complete and while the capex estimate has risen by
around U$12m to U$305m since it was first green-lighted, that’s a pretty reasonable number
and as per last week, they are still on-budget.
5
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2
mt ERO at Xavantina: Gold head grade
ore mined (mt)
ore processed (mt)
source: company filings
67.7 57.7 46.7 27.7 62.8 54.7 73.7
42.6 39.5 95.6
55.8
71.01
58.11
02.31
20
15
10
5
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2
Au g/t
source: company filings
ERO at Xavantina: gold recoveries
%1.78 %6.98 %0.29 %4.59 %7.49 %6.89 %7.29 %3.09 %3.29 %6.19 %3.39 %7.09 %4.19 %6.48
100%
90%
80%
70%
60% 50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2
ERO at Xavantina: Gold production and sales, per qtr
source: company filings
6257 4838
5489 00101 02001 3599 5869
9777 3108
84401
70921
38501
79031
61901
00031 00031
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
Au oz prod
Au oz sold
source: company filings, IKN ests
ERO at Xavantina: Cost per oz Au
057 186 806 346 066 147 019
2901 9611 5311 6901
649
1801 0011 0011
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
U$/oz Au
cash cost Au
AISC Au
source: company filings, IKN ests
Tucama Project: Completion level 95% 100%
100%
85%
90%
80% 70%
70%
60%
45%
50%
40% 30%
30% 20%
20% 8%
10%
0%
Sep 30th Dec 31st March June oct 19th 4q23est 1q24est 2q24
2022 2022 31st 30th 2023
2023 2023 source: company filings, IKN ests

This simple chart shows the development to date and the way Tucumã is expected to move into
production by 2q24, less than three quarters from now. As for what you’re getting for then
money, Tucumã is planned to return average annual production of 27,000mt (around 60m lbs)
of copper at an average mine cash cost of U$1.36/lb, those figures including a higher
production of 35,000mt (77m lbs) copper at U$1.12/lb in the first five years. That high grade up
front means the projected capital payback period is just 1.4 years and using a U$3.85/lb copper
price, the post-tax IRR comes in at a juicy 41.8%.
With the three moving parts to ERO.to now outlined, we move on the the crux of today’s note
and a look at the company’s underlying financials.
The financial overview at ERO.to: The recent equity price weakness brings extra attention
to the financial position at the company. The recent drop in the share price is obviously
connected to the drop in the copper price, but we also know that ERO is currently running an
expense investment program in its assets, including the Tucumã project build-out but also a
deep shaft at Caraiba and sustaining capex works at Xavantina. In total, the 2023 capex budget
was forecast at between U$342 and U$389m and as at end 2q23 (June 30th), the company has
spent a little over half of that figure at U$213m total.
That’s a fair chunk of change and if doubts grow about ERO’s ability to cover its capex budget,
that may be affecting the share price and pushing it down further. Conversely, if the market
has exaggerated the risk to ERO’s current financial position from the copper price drop, this
may well represent an excellent window of opportunity to buy in cheaply before Tucumã comes
online next year.
The first thing to consider is the approximate
revenues mix. We know the top line revenue
number on the P+L and ERO gives enough data
on its gold and silver sales from Xavantina to
allow us to calculate precious metals, allowing us
to back out the rest as copper sales from
Caraiba. This chart is the result (right) and by
estimating production and average sales for 3q23
and 4q23 based on what we know now, we
expect top line revenues to increase modestly in
the next two quarters.
From there, we move to the G&A…
ERO.to: Quarterly Earnings overview
6
908.28 956.38
720.86
263.48
999.06
256.05
18.22
17.25
801.04 804.93
3.44
7.65
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
source: company filings, IKN
srallod
fo
snoillim
ERO: Revenues breakdown
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
revenues
COGS
Gross profit
…and with a gross profit number identified, as well as a regular op-ex costs regime, we can get
to a conservatively-pitched operating profit of U$25.8m in Q3 and a good-looking U$37.7m for
4q23. The net profit bars you see in this chart are a tougher call, as ERO tends to see sizeable
fluctuations from forex adjustments that don’t affect in real dollar terms. Also, the operating
profit number is a best place from which we can estimate funds available to other projects
02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
U$m
Est total Caraiba revs
est total Xavatina revs
source: ERO data, IKN calcs and ests

(there are tax breaks from capital investments in Brazil)
ERO.to: Gross, operating and net profits, per qtr
7
69.17 76.17
04.75
31.17
08.74
15.04
39.6
45.43
88.22 58.02 08.52
07.73
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
U$m Gross profit
op profit
Net Income
source: ERO data, IKN
In so many words, we expect ERO to see its financial results for 3q23 come in roughly in line
with the previous two quarters, then distinct improvement into 4q23 as better production
numbers and its hedging program (75% of copper is sold at a minimum of U$3.50/lb) improves
the top line.
We therefore expect profits to keep rolling in at ERO despite the drop in the price of copper,
but the question remains as to whether it can cover its capex obligations. For that we move to
the balance sheet and the overview asset and liability charts look reasonable. The overall asset
value growth indicative of a profit-making mining company re-investing in itself, while over aty
liabilities, the big item is the U$400m senior secured credit line that’s due in 2030. There’s
rolling interest of around U$4m per quarter to pay, but that’s no deal-breaker and overall, ERO
has plenty of time once its new mine is build to start paying down that debt.
ERO.to: Total Assets
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
…what matters in the near-term is liquidity:
The working capital chart shows the effects of running a high level of accounts payable, but
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
ERO.to: Liabilities Breakdown per qtr
800
cash&eq Ac Rec 700
Inventory other current
fixed 600
500
400
300
200
100
0
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
LT liab
current liab
ERO.to: Working capital
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150 100
50
0
-50
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
U$m ERO.to: Cash and ST
source company filings
584.12 833.44 716.15 143.45 805.26
475.48
556.731 450.911 921.031 384.564 188.924
897.953
204.713
746.632
393.081
541
001
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
$m
source: company filings

that can be rolled over without harming liquidity (and we saw in previous years that eRO can go
through a period of negative working cap while building out assets) Therefore what matters
most at this time is hard cash and on that score, our forecast operating profits partially offset
the remaining capex budget for 2023 and leave enough of a cushion for comfort. It’s also worth
noting that the above doesn’t take into account ERO’s untapped U$150m revolving credit facility
and with that in the back pocket, there’s every reason to suppose its ambitious capex plans are
fully and comfortably covered.
Bottom line: In ten days’ time on November 2nd 2023, Ero Copper (ERO.to) is set to report its
3q23 production and financial results. We expect the company to report reasonable, in-line
numbers that are close to the results seen in 1q23 and 2q23, but there won’t be many
fireworks as they have already guided for a slightly weak production quarter, with better to
come in 4q23. The way the stock price has dropped in recent weeks, added to the copper mini-
slump and the market’s perception of heavy bills to pay in ERO’s near-term future, add up to a
quarter that’s unlikely to make the share price rally. This is no bad thing. With the share price
already under C$19 we’re already into bargain territory compared to just one quarter ago but
this tough market for base metals stories might turn that into an even better entry point.
There’s a window of opportunity opening and if we’re right about copper showing just some
temporary weakness before demand starts picking up again and then the well-advertised
production shortfall comes into play as 2024 becomes 2025 and beyond, there may not be a
better moment to buy into this star performer before it steps up production schedule
significantly in 2024 as its third mine comes on line.
We believe that once the 4q23 financials are known, the world will realize that ERO is about to
change for the better. That gives us the rest of this
year to watch the company carefully and pick the
right entry point. I don’t think that’s today and I’m
not a buyer of anything right now, let alone a copper
stock after having just pared down my exposure to
that exact metal, but it’s also the right time to look
for bargains among the profitable producers. As
from next week, Ero Copper (ERO.to) will be on our
Watch List as it’s a far more interesting stock to
follow than Libero or Rugby.
Stocks to Follow
Of the 17 stocks on the current Stocks to Follow list, seven were winners last week (MAI.v,
EQX, FSM, RIO.v, WEX.v, MARI.to, PAU.cse), two remained unchanged (MIRL.cse, SURG.v) and
eight were losers (ARG.to, SOLG.to, CTGO, NCAU.v, ALDE.v, LBC.v, RUG.v, MENE.v). The
biggest losers were Libero (LBC.v down 33.3%), SolGold (SOLG.to down 11.1%) and Amerigo
(ARG.to down 9.7%), the biggest winner was Provenance (PAU.cse up 21.1%)
We 17 open positions, three below our self-imposed maximum. Five are in the green, one is
unchanged, 11 are in the red. That total will remain the same this time last week but the names
will be different as we swap out two and add two.
8

company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.32 52.4% $0.75 first tgt, #1 idea
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Amerigo Res ARG.to hold C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.12 -17.6% cut size but still big Cu play
SolGold SOLG.to BUY C$0.265 19-Feb-23 C$0.16 -39.6% Cu in Ecuador, M&A tgt
Equinox Gold EQX STR BUY U$4.46 30-May-23 U$4.56 2.2% Au leverage trade, painful week
Fortuna Silver FSM STR BUY U$2.92 13-Aug-23 U$3.04 4.1% New trade, want quick flip
Contango Ore CTGO BUY U$18.70 30-Jul-23 U$17.71 -5.3% new purchase IKN741
Newcore Gold NCAU.v SPEC BUY C$0.205 23-Oct-22 C$0.13 -36.6% Financing closed, bottom in
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v BUY C$0.83 22-Apr-18 C$0.22 -73.5% Cheap on permit probs, appeal
SPECULATIVE TRADES
Western Explor. WEX.v SPEC BUY C$1.87 9-Apr-23 C$0.83 -55.6% Au spec in USA, started badly
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v SPEC BUY C$0.72 16-May-21 C$0.80 11.1% now in drill assay season
Minera IRL MIRL.cse avoid C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.01 -94.9% run into ground byCEO, AVOID
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
Marimaca Copper MARI.to WATCH C$3.65 26-May-23 C$3.65 0.0% Likely buy, want cheap entry
Surge Copper SURG.v WATCH C$0.11 18-Jun-23 C$0.095 -13.6% tinycap Cu in BC Canada
Provenance Gold PAU.cse WATCH C$0.085 8-Oct-23 C$0.115 35.3% Idaho gold drill play
Libero Copper LBC.v dropping C$0.065 2-Jul-23 C$0.03 -53.8% Arg drill permit not happening
Rugby Resources RUG.v dropping C$0.06 26-Mar-23 C$0.04 -33.3% nothing happening
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.63 6-Dec-20 C$0.28 -55.6% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2023 date closed close price
Altiplano Metals APN.v jan'23 C$0.31 17-Sep-21 C$0.17 -45.2% delayed and will dilute soon
Western Copper WRN.to mar'23 C$2.02 13-Nov-22 C$2.32 14.9% sold on reduced M&A prob.
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v may'23 C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$1.75 -43.0% Closing on legal action news
Amerigo Res ARG.to may'23 C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.48 8.8% sold 20% to raise cash
Amerigo Res ARG.to oct'23 C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.21 -11.0% sold 10% raise to cash
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v oct'23 C$0.265 25-Apr-21 C$0.12 -54.7% sold raise to cash
Faraday Copper FDY.to oct'23 C$0.79 26-Mar-23 C$0.68 -11.4% sold raise to cash
AbraSilver Res. ABRA.v oct'23 C$0.36 4-Dec-22 C$0.28 -22.2% sold raise to cash
Orecap inv OCI.v oct'23 C$0.04 20-Nov-22 C$0.03 -25.0% sold raise to cash
2015 to 2022 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on some of our covered companies:
Libero Copper (LBC.v): DROPPING FROM WATCH LIST. The lack of news on La
Esperanza getting a permit has become its own signal and with the share price now dropping to
3c as people throw in the towel, there seems little point in keeping this stock on the Watch List
any longer. As LBC is part of the 2023 Copper Basket (below) we’ll still be able to keep an eye
on its progress and if the desired drill permit shows up, we can always reverse course and buy
a few shares on the news. But until that time, there’s no point in wasting a line of this table
when there are other, more interesting and viable trades out there.
Rugby Resources (RUG.v): DROPPING FROM WATCH LIST. And while we’re at it, the
lack of news and progress from RUG means it’s time to say goodbye to this tinycap exploreco
trade idea. Once again, the Watch List initiative has allowed me to keep a close eye on this
potential trade without committing cash and that’s not a bad thing, but the choice of RUG for
one of the lines has been a bit of a waste of time. If and when they finally get round to drilling
Cobrasco there may still be a trade.
9

SolGold (SOLG.to): It’s one thing to correctly predict an election result, another to flub the
consequences and I was very surprised to see the continued weakness in SOLG last week. For
sure there’s the continued weakness in spot copper to consider and now that Newmont is
almost merged with Newcrest, there are doubts about the future of the block of SOLG shares as
NEM is notoriously allergic to high political risk countries. All the same, last week’s selling came
on the back of persistent losses in previous weeks and the Noboa win should have brought
better optics to the country, particularly for a project in an advanced stage and with reasonably
good community relations to fall back upon.
The decision to lighten copper exposure was the right one, but in hindsight this is one of the
places that I should have sold alongside FDY and QCCU. I’m going to leave any decision on
dumping this for a couple more weeks, at least until we get a policy statement from the
incoming government and/or interest from the market. However, there’s no getting round the
recent bad price action and at some point, I’ll need to make a proactive hold/sell call.
Fortuna Silver (FSM): On the other hand, this one is working quite well now. We’re looking
to FSM as a great play under the new market circumstances thanks to our expectations of a
blowout 3q23 financial report, that’s due on November 8th. Still my best idea for a way to take
advantage of this near-term gold price action.
Minera Alamos (MAI.v): A decent little week for our Top Pick and this ten day chart shows
the clear upward trend. The chart represents an approximate 10% improvement over two
weeks, not bad but not gangbusters yet and volume, though improving, is still relatively light.
We’re still patiently waiting for news on the debt deal for Cerro de Oro and there’s clearly some
sort of hitch holding it back, because we were told a month ago that it’s “almost there”. I do
know the heads-up agreement is in place
Provenance Gold (PAU.cse): Solid drill news from our recent Watch List addition, when PAU
reported (2) “…12 Meters of 18.01 g/t Gold Within 119 meters of 3.28 g/t Gold from Surface”
from Eldorado. That’s a great intersect for any project, let alone one that runs from surface and
would be part of a planned open pit operation.
What’s more, PAU picked up some very good trading on the back of the news, which is one of
the missing pieces in this under-the-radar story (so far
at least). You don’t get many CSE-listed explorecos
running a million-plus share volume but that’s what we
saw from PAU on two days last week. A good start in
some respects, but let’s underscore that Watch List
means I don’t own any.
10

Newcore Gold (NCAU.v): Depsite this trade being beaten up badly, there is at least some life
in NCAU these days and its successful placement raising
seems to have brought some extra eyeballs to the play.
West Africa has some regional momentum and with that,
you want to be in the safest political jurisdictions such as
Ghana.
I’m willing to let NCAU show its potential to rally with the
rest of them if/when gold moves above the U$2,00/oz
line as at some point, the deep bargain hunters will
rotate out of the first rank gainers and into heavily
discount tinycaps
Amerigo Resources (ARG.to): The cruel reality of the copper market has arrived at the door
of even the best companies and if the drop in spot copper continues, we may see further
downside if ARG repeats the move we saw in 2022.
This chart maps ARG against spot copper (HG00) and
shows the leverage ARG offers to the metal, but
that’s also a double-edged sword and the drop over
the last three weeks has been a painful one.
There are two silver linings to the recent drop: The
first is having lightened twice and sold a couple of
tranches at higher prices but make no mistake, this is
still a big position and it’s no fun holding as bids
disappear the way they have. The second is that
dividend, as we know from both our own house
calculations and the stated position of CEO Davidson
that as long as copper stays above U$3.50/lb, there’s the cash to pay C$0.03/qtr indefinitely
and even if there’s a temporary dip lower, there’s no reason to expect the divi to be suspended.
That makes it easier to wait out this rough period, as ARG now offers a very juicy 11% dividend
yield and in essence, any holder is gets paid to wait out this current weak copper price period
The Copper Basket
After forty-two weeks of 2023, The Copper Basket shows a loss of 17.29% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Solaris Res SLS.to 6.44 146.599 842.94 5.75 -10.7%
2 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.22 92.882 339.02 3.65 13.4%
3 Western Copper WRN.to 2.41 151.597 266.81 1.76 -27.0%
4 Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to 1.92 105.96 162.12 1.53 -20.3%
5 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.78 175.554 140.44 0.80 2.6%
6 Oroco Res OCO.v 0.91 216.13 134.00 0.62 -31.9%
7 Faraday Copper FDY.to 0.54 175.2 110.38 0.63 16.7%
8 Hot Chili HCH.v 0.78 119.455 106.31 0.89 14.1%
9 Regulus Res. REG.v 1.10 124.509 90.89 0.73 -33.6%
10 Pan Global Res PGZ.v 0.46 212.395 36.11 0.17 -63.0%
11 Kodiak Copper KDK.v 1.12 56.2 35.97 0.64 -42.9%
12 QC Copper QCCU.v 0.165 162.815 19.54 0.12 -27.3%
13 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.16 106.25 15.94 0.15 -6.3%
14 Atacama Copper ACOP.v 0.16 35.94 7.91 0.22 37.5%
15 Libero Copper LBC.v 0.155 119.58 3.59 0.03 -80.6%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg -17.29%
11

Once again, copper under-performed gold and the stocks in our junior exploreco basket reflects
that fact. The average lost a thin 0.1% but that’s
still a new 2023 low and it was on the back of 16% The Copper Basket 2023, weekly evolution
12%
8%
Eight week-over-week losers (SLS.to, OCO.v,
4%
ASCU.to, ALDE.v, HCH.v, REG.v, QCCU.v, LBC.v),
0%
that just beat out the seven winners (WRN.to, -4%
MARI.to, PGZ.v, FDY.to. KDK.v, ECU.v, ACOP.v). -8%
-12%
Notably, most of the winners came from the
-16%
lower end of the market cap list. There were -20%
double-figure percentage movers in both
directions, with the big winners led by Atacama
Copper (ACOP.v up 15.8%), Kodiak (KDK.v up
14.3%) and Element 29 (ECU.v up 11.1%), while the big losers included Libero (LBC.v down
33.3%) and Hot Chili (HCH.v down
10.1%).
A different copper-the-metal chart this
week, as we zoom out and consider the
last two years of spot copper prices.
That’s a concerning looking chart in the
near-term and the recent soft copper
action (on the back of those projected
surpluses we’ve covered in the last
couple of weeks of The Copper Basket)
is all to do with the new perception of
slack demand in China and of course
that elusive “China Stimulus” the
market has been half expecting for
months on end. Example quote (3):
Copper prices probed lower on Friday, weighed down by worries about high interest
rates, sluggish global growth and lack of additional stimulus in top metals consumer
China.
And while we don’t’ normally stray away from our strict copper focus in this section, the iron
ore market is also pointing to economic concerns in China and these snippets from this report
(4) explains why:
Iron ore futures fell on Friday, weighed down by concerns about China’s ailing property
market and weaker-than-expected steel production.
The most-traded January iron ore on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange DCIOcv1
fell 27.5 yuan, or 3.2%, to 839 yuan ($114.64) per metric ton at the close of daytime
trade.
And…
“Home prices in major Chinese cities fell at a faster pace in September, signalling
ongoing weak demand,” ANZ bank analysts said in a note.
China’s crude steel output fell 5% in September from August, confounding some
market expectations for a rise after steelmakers lifted utilisation rates amid the peak
construction season.
That’s the same macro driver as copper and once we add in the latest data from the world of
copper inventories, there’s more reason to understand why Dr. Copper has been feeling ill
recently:
 There was some bad editing in this section last week, I hope you worked out my
mistake and that I’d inadvertently left info from the week before last. Anyway, this
week in copper stocks saw more tonnages aggregated to the world total, with the three
official futures systems adding 11,990 metric tonnes (mt) between them. This
weekend, the total stands at 271,746mt
12
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2yluj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6gua ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3pes ht01 ht71 ht42 ts1tco ht8 ht51 dn22
source: IKN calcs

 After the big 18k post-Golden Week stock add, things were more subdued this week
and the SHFE system added a more modest 1,329mt to close the week at 58,223mt.
That’s still an addition, but overall the near-term signal is neutral.
 The biggest add came at the LME, up another 11,025mt to close the week at
191,925mt. That move was all about New Orleans (and Mobile) USA, that added
12,000mt total (25mt in Mobile, 11,975mt in New Orleans) and yes, I’m going to use
that phrase “roach motel” once again. It’s interesting to see this stockpiling continue in
LME USA warehouses, as New Orleans now holds 80,400mt of the 191kmt total
worldwide. The tentative implication is of North American copper producers having
trouble in shipping product to the main markets (i.e. China, Japan, South Korea), as the
costs of supply from South America (and lets’ say it, Russia) are more competitive for
end-users.
 The Comex again did its own thing and saw a drop of 364mt, the close Friday at
21.598mt. No biggie.
The dedicated SHFE charts don’t show much change from the near-term trend (above) or the
longer-term bunching of stocks at this low level. It’s increasingly obvious that the threatened
“stock out” isn’t going to happen and what awaits us now is the traditional spike in stocks that
starts at some point after Christmas, then runs to the other side of the Chinese New Year (this
time around, Feb 10th 2024):
SHFE copper inventory levels, 2018 to 2023
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
13
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
MT Cu 2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
source: Cochilco data
Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2014 to date
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
31'13ceD dr32 ht51 ht7 ht03 dn22 ht71 ht9 ts1von ht42 ht71 ht01 dn2tcO 7102ts1naJ ht62 ht81 ht01 dr3ced ht52 102ht72rpa ht91 ht11 9102
dr3bef
102ht82rpa ts12 ht31 0202ht5naj 202ht92ram ts12 ht31 0202ht6ced ht82 dr32 ht51 ht7 202ht03naj 22ht42rpA ht71 22ht9tco 3202
naJ
ht62 ht81 ht01peS
Mt Cu
|
source: Cochilco
Now for notes on a few basket stocks:
Western Copper & Gold (WRN.to): I’m surprised WRN didn’t drop on this news (5) and
here’s the entire NR body:
VANCOUVER, B.C. Western Copper and Gold Corporation (“Western” or the
“Company”) (TSX: WRN; NYSE American: WRN) today announced the departure of
Ken Engquist, Chief Operating Officer, effective October 18, 2023. His responsibilities
will be assigned to other members of the management team.

“I would like to thank Ken for his contributions to the Company and wish him well in his
future endeavors,” said Paul West-Sells, President and CEO.
Losing one’s COO isn’t great at the best of times. Losing one with the rep of Ken Enquist is
worse. Losing one just before the moment when Rio Tinto is supposed to decide whether to
continue with its active partnership at WRN (the decision is due late this quarter) is a clear
signal that there’s no catalyst-level deal in the works because if there were, the COO would
certainly stick around for the pay-out.
Pan Global Resources (PGZ.v): This desk hasn’t spared the criticism for PGZ on its decision
to go small on its current placement, but last week brought an interesting development (6):
“VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA – (October 19, 2023) – Pan Global Resources
Inc. (“Pan Global” or the "Company") (TSX-V: PGZ; OTCQX: PGZFF) announces
today that due to strong demand the previously announced non-brokered private
placement financing has been increased from $2 million to $6 million.”
The terms of the deal haven’t changed, with each 20c unit still comprised of a share and a full
warrant with a 30c strike price and a three year shelf life. But instead of 10m units, it’s now
30m and the completion date has been pushed out slightly to October 31st (spooky but
understandable). The company, via its CEO
comment spun the news as “…exceptional support
from key existing and new investors places…” but
there’s little doubt that the potential to raise this
amount existed for a long time. Instead, the
negative reaction from the market on hearing PGZ
was only going to raise $2m sank the stock and
seems to have forced the C-suite’s hand; so much
for their somewhat naïve belief they could raise
small now and bigger later.
Overall, this is a welcome development, but it also
smacks of shutting the stable door after the horse
has bolted and the decision first to delay and then
“go small” has almost certainly contributed to the recent price weakness. On the other hand,
once this deal is closed PGZ presumably has enough cash to get it into mid-2024 minimum and
that offers plenty of opportunity to deliver market-moving news. It also allows the speculator to
look further than the current near-term copper price weakness and take a gamble on some of
these beaten-down shares with a view to seeing them run up if/when copper gets a bid next
year. There is a new warrant overhang at 30c to consider and it’s no long a small one, we’re
now talking 30m papers to overcome at that price point, but anyone buying at 17c today won’t
be complaining too hard if the 30c line becomes a ceiling.
Oroco Resources (OCO.v): The PEA was long awaited…by those long OCO. It arrived last
week (7) and we’ll start with the ten-day price chart as a hack on what the reception was to the
news:
Aside a price pop very early on news day (hope springs eternal among the OCO hardcore fan
14

club, I suppose) it was received with a yawn and eventual selling, OCO down 7.5% week-over-
week.
It’s understandable: The PEA was reasonable and showed positive economics, but then again
there’s nothing in the data that makes Santo Tomas stand out from the pack. Its average
annual production of 107,000 tonnes copper (127kmt in first five years) over a 20 year mine life
pegs it as a medium-scale operation and not something that will interest the majors in the
copper space, which limits its market immediately. The initial capex of U$1.5Bn is a big number
and with the current snippy attitude toward open pit mining projects in Mexico, there won’t be
any near-term interest from buyers looking to “pick up a bargain. As for the economics, an IRR
of 17.3% and payback period of five years are once again “okay, not great”, especially when
you consider the metals input prices:
It’s notable that the company is happy to pitch low for the by-product credit metals
assumptions but, when it comes to main product copper, they choose U$3.85/lb. And again,
there are always all sorts of logical and sensible justifications for going with that copper base
case price…it’s what they all do, after all. The issue shows when you consider the limited
amount of sensitivity data provided in last week’s NR (we need to wait for the main report to
get to SEDAR for more):
At just under U$3.50/lb, my idea of a real “base case” in today’s market, the IRR is around 13%
and as the visual above left shows, drop copper by 20% (around U$3.08/lb) and the NPV drops
to zero. And this is a PEA, the 43-101 document most likely to show “the best optimization”
(let’s say) of project economics. Finally, the CEO comments were interesting for the subdued
tone, a long way from the hyperbole CEO Richard Lock used when commenting on those error-
strewn assay results a few months ago. He started with, “This is a significant start to the
process of evaluating Santo Tomas. The PEA firmly demonstrates the economic viability of the
Santo Tomas Project and justifies its continued development” and that’s fair enough, as it
implies the early stage that Santo Tomas still finds itself after this milestone. Compare that to
the guff and nonsense peddled to its hardcore social media fan base over the last few years
and how the company was about to be sold to the highest bidder…sorry people, it rarely
happens like that and even more rarely for a project that doesn’t stand head and shoulder
above the pack.
It’s easy to be too hard on OCO.v and Santo Tomas at this point and on reviewing my script
above, I may be doing just that. But I decided not to edit much because the market response
has, in my opinion, said the same thing. OCO has a valuable asset on its hands and the PEA
makes that tangible, but from now it’s more a second level “leverage to copper” trade than
something on the leading edge of the sector. If copper goes up, so will this stock price, but you
can say that about a whole range of other companies and tickers. When push comes to shove,
a successful copper exploreco trade needs to be based on either outstanding grad (e.g. the
potential offered by Pan Global at Escacena), outstanding scale (e.g. the potential offered by
15

Aldebaran at Altar), or both (e.g. the potential offered by Filo
Mining). Oroco misses on those scores and while its on-paper
economics work, they do not stand out.
Kodiak Copper (KDK.v): KDK has been through the wringer in
2023, with the stock down a full 50% as of last weekend. But it
managed a decent rebound on the back of this drill assay NR (8)
last week entitled “Kodiak Drills Significant From-Surface Copper
at West Zone: 0.58% CuEq Over 254m within 0.27% CuEq over
941m”. Those are reasonable numbers and a look at the drill maps
included make them even more attractive. This example shows
that the assay came from one of the lesser explored areas of its
main MPD project and as such, has the potential to open up a new
front of activity and add good tonnages to a project that has
stagnated over the last couple of drilling seasons, after beginning
so well.
These two price charts (below) show the move last week in both
near-term and three-month context, as there’s still a long way to
go to claw back recent losses but, on the other hand, the volume
surge that came with last week’s news was promising. KDK
benefits from being a member of the Discovery Group of
companies (Great Bear, Fireweed, etc) so if and when they have
good news, the group’s slick marketing machine makes sure the
word gets around.
The Producer Basket
After 42 weeks of 2023, the Producer Basket shows a gain of 4.09% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 47.20 799 31.00 38.80 -17.8%
2 Barrick GOLD 17.18 1761.54 29.75 16.89 -1.7%
3 Agnico Eagle AEM 51.99 488.9 24.35 49.80 -4.2%
4 Wheaton PM WPM 39.08 451.963 19.49 43.13 10.4%
5 Kinross Gold KGC 4.09 1256.1 6.71 5.34 30.6%
6 Alamos Gold AGI 10.11 393.1 4.99 12.70 25.6%
7 B2Gold BTG 3.57 1074.567 3.59 3.34 -6.4%
8 Hecla Mining GFI 5.56 610.491 2.60 4.26 -23.4%
9 Eldorado Gold EGO 8.36 185.73 1.90 10.21 22.1%
10 Wesdome Gold WDOFF 5.53 147.526 0.86 5.85 5.8%
All prices and stock quotes in U$ Port. avg 4.09%
16

A good week for the producers, though the 1.83% gain in the GDX benchmark failed to keep up
with the 2.66% added by the SPDR Gold Bullion ETF (GLD), our Americas-Time proxy to gold
bullion. There was one week-over-week loser in Newmont (NEM), all the others were winners
with a notable move made by Barrick (GOLD up 7.3%), the next best being the much smaller
Wesdome (WDOFF up 6.0%).
The GDX benchmark was weighed down by the under-performance of big weighted NEM, its
nearly-there fusion partner Newcrest (NCM) also high up on the list, and a mediocre week for
the other sector behemoth Franco-Nevada (FNV). As we just have one 10% slice of those
three, our basket of ten performed substantially better than the benchmark and suddenly we’re
in a 1.2% lead over the GDX, not quite the first time we’re in front this year but certainly the
first time the margin has been clear. There’s hope for the race yet.
The 2023 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
comparative to GDX control
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
Newmont (NEM) and Barrick (GOLD) (ABX.to):
Wednesday saw a big switch in allegiances and the
reason for the shape of the Barrick and Newmont price
lines last week has a lot to do with this NR (9) on
October 17th Australia time, entitled, “Newcrest
Announces Scheme Becomes Effective”. In it, we learn
that there’s not much left to do for the fusion between
NEM and NCM to complete and we’re simply counting
down the days, but below the main event was this:
Entitlement to Special Dividend
Newcrest announced a Special Dividend of
US$1.10 per Newcrest share on 5 October 2023. This dividend will be fully franked.
The record date for the dividend will be 7.00pm (Melbourne time), 19 October 2023
and it will be paid on 27 October 2023.
With 72 hour clearance, that means all holders on Wednesday get the $1.10 cash dividend and
with that bonus payment in-hand, a whole bunch of instos decided to move their gold exposure
over from NEM (and NCM) to the other big player, Barrick.
Wesdome (WDOFF) (WDO.to): On Monday WDO pre-announced its 3q23 production and
sales numbers, as well as scheduling its financials for post-close November 8th (that will be a
busy date for this desk, plenty of other stocks report that day). The headline numbers…
17
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2yluj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6gua ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3pes ht01 ht71 ht42 ts1tco ht8 ht51 dn22
The 2023 Producer Basket: Percentage difference
between GDX benchmark & basket (negative = IKN ahead)
4.0%
ikn 3.0%
gdx control
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
source: NYSE, IKN calcs ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2yluj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6gua ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3pes ht01 ht71 ht42 ts1tco ht8 ht51 dn22
source: IKN calcs, NYSE data
WDO: Gold prod/qtr
69312
63892
12632 76242 43391 65771 50471 20552 95102 54822 19302
9614
5511 5112 8914 7877 8147 7369 8000
5208
92961
00022
45000
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
Ozt Au Kiena
Mishi
Eagle River
source: WDO filings

…included total production of 27,760oz gold and
preliminary sales of exactly 27,000 oz are best
described as “the low side of acceptable”, not a
miss as such but nothing particularly special,
either. The above chart notes that Eagle River
accounted for 20,391 oz, Kiena 7,369oz for the
second quarter running (and the third of the last
four), zero ounces came from the Mishi open pit.
WDO reiterated guidance for the year and as a
result, we’re pencilling in 30,000 oz from Q4, as
seen above. The five-day chart price chart
comparing the main Canadian listing WDO to
GDX and GLD shows how Wesdome under-
performed on Monday, but by Friday it had
rallied compared to both and put in a decent week, all told. The market isn’t so worried about a
2023 that produces 2,000 oz more or less in any given quarter and cares a lot more about the
development to the Kiena Deep high grade ounces. Notably, WDO has carefully moved that
timeline out and these days, talks about the best Kiena muck coming online “in the first half of
2024”, in other words 2q24.
We’re still modelling for WDO to make it back to positive working cash territory with the 3q23
financials, but there’s still a long way to go before it makes it back to the previous robust
balance sheet levels we got used to before the Kiena timeline began to drag out. We’ll revisit
the balance sheet data in more detail in the Weekly of Sunday November 12th.
80 WDO.to: Working Capital per qtr
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
18
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 tse32q3
source company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
The TinyCaps List
After 42 weeks of 2023, the TinyCaps show a gain of 19.41% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Aurelius Min AUL.v 0.07 49.787 1.00 0.02 -71.4%
Coast Copper COCO.v 0.045 64.001 3.20 0.05 11.1%
District Metals DMX.v 0.075 86.891 17.38 0.200 166.7%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.13 69.962 5.60 0.080 -38.5%
Manitou Gold MTU.v 0.02 344.568 18.95 0.055 175.0%
Nine Mile Metals NINE.cse 0.29 57.025 3.42 0.060 -79.3%
Palamina Corp PA.v 0.08 65.285 7.18 0.110 37.5%
Precipitate Gold PRG.v 0.075 130.367 7.82 0.06 -20.0%
South Star STS.v 0.55 40.129 28.89 0.72 30.9%
Viva Gold VAU.v 0.14 106.721 12.27 0.115 -17.9%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 19.41%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies

chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $20m. They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a
little and allowed sub-U$20m market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, but it was a particularly depressing exercise to trawl through the whole of the TSXV and find companies
that are small enough, but with life in them. The vast majority of sub-$20m stocks are broken stocks, either
traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2023. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
Hardly any change to the overall basket average,
TinyCaps, 2023 weekly tracker
down just one tenth on the week, but inside that 50%
result there were some big changes to certain stock 45%
40%
prices. Just two stocks recorded week-over-week 35%
gains, but both were big moves as seen in South Star 30%
25%
(STS.v up 26.3%) and Precipitate Gold (PRG.v up 20%
20.0%). Four remained unchanged (AUL.v, COCO.v, 15%
10%
MTU.v, VAU.v) and that leaves four losers (DMX.v, 5%
LMS.v NINE.cse, PA.v) including the big percentage 0%
loss in Latin Metals (LMS.v down 30.4%).
Palamina (PA.v): After quite a delay, we finally got
news from PA’s sister company Winshear (WINS.v) that it had settled with the government of
Tanzania. Here’s an extract from the NR that day:
The Parties agreed on payment in the amount of US$30,000,000 to the Company to
settle the case and terminate the arbitration proceedings. Funds were received by the
Company on October 16th, 2023. After payment of funding and legal costs, the net
amount to Winshear was approximately C$25,275,000 (US$18,500,000).
The company had wanted plenty more than the eventual settlement, but realpolitik did its thing
and there’s a lot to be said for actually getting all the money into your possession in such cases.
For sure some of the WINS cheerleaders were disappointed with the net result, but it looked
about right to me and though WINS sold off on the news, Palamina still looks like the better
trade on the issue. We understand that the WINS (and therefore PA) people are looking to
distribute most of the money to shareholders and leave around C$3m in WINS. In the case of
PA, the aim is to put around the same amount, C$3m or so into its treasury. That allows PA to
go ahead and drill as from the receipt of its final drill permits and while the company will
probably have to wait until after the South Peru rainy season is done, it does mean they are
cashed up to do what they want in what would otherwise be a very difficult market in which to
fund at reasonable rates.
South Star (STS.v): In IKN752 last weekend we noted the thin trading in STS and how it
“…continues to jump on sporadic buying interest, only to drop back down to this 50c-60c
default level when things inevitably go quiet again.” That was then and a week is a long time in
politics (and markets), as we saw a clear change to that pattern on Friday when South Star
rocketed higher on the back of outside news. Here’s Reuters to explain (10):
BEIJING, Oct 20 (Reuters) - China said on Friday it will require export permits for some
graphite products to protect national security, springing a surprise with another bid to
control critical mineral supply in response to challenges over its global manufacturing
dominance.
China is the world's top graphite producer and exporter. It also refines more than 90%
of the world's graphite into the material that is used in virtually all EV battery anodes,
which is the negatively charged portion of a battery.
"This bold and unexpected move by China in graphite has taken us by surprise,
arriving far sooner than anyone could have predicted," said Kien Huynh, chief
commercial officer at Alkemy Capital Investments , which is focused on developing
projects in the energy transition metals sector.
19
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2yluj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6gua ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3pes ht01 ht71 ht42 ts1tco ht8 ht51 dn22
source: IKN calcs, TSX data

That makes STS the lucky company, in the right place at
the right time as it finishes its build-out for its Santa Cruz
graphite mine in Brazil. We mentioned last weekend that
the eventual production may end up starting in 1q24 than
this quarter, but those wishing to secure long-term supply
of graphite won’t be sweating those weeks. The Friday run
came on significant volume and it would be zero surprise to
see STS run further in the days to come.
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended
tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with market caps of under $20m
offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s
possible in the future I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, at
the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
Argentina Round One Presidential election results
As with Ecuador last weekend, we don’t have the official results and they’ll take a few days to
collate, but Argentina’s exit polls and fastcount results are normally accurate enough to use as
hard data. At time of going to press, late Sunday evening with 98.51% of votes tallied, here are
the three names and numbers that matter:
 Sergio Massa: 36.68%
 Javier Milei: 29.98%
 Patricia Bullrich: 23.83%
There are a couple of other minor candidates in the mix, there’s also data on spoiled ballots and
percentage turnouts etc, but those above are the ones that matter this evening and they state
clearly that Sergio Massa and Javier Milei will go into the November 19th second round run-off
to decide who becomes the next President of Argentina.
The result is something of a surprise and kicks hard against nearly all the recent voter intention
polls (except those normally understood as skewed to the government or political left wing).
The independent/libertarian/right-wing/populist (same list as last week, choose the one you
prefer) Milei and his “let’s burn the whole thing down” message has failed to increase his vote
from the PASO in August, meanwhile the orthodox right wing, as embodied by the weak
candidacy of Patricia Bullrich, didn’t offer a valid alternative to his candidacy. That has left the
government’s Sergio Massa with his “Candidate Of Consensus” as the big winner this evening,
as though most polls indicated correctly that it was going to a run-off between Milei and Massa,
very few people even expected Sergio Massa to poll at the same level as Milei, let alone beat
him by over six percentage points. This has put the cat amongst the pigeons, as up to today
the second round looked a sure thing for Milei and now it’s simply too close to call. By natural
political affinity, we can expect those who voted for Patricia Bullrich today to move toward Milei
for round two, but there’s clearly a growing anti-vote for Milei from a section of the general
public who distrust his antics or do not like what they see in him as a person, or perhaps both.
On the other hand, the anti-vote for the current government is well established and Sergio
Massa will have to do his own convincing on that score. So this evening this desk can only say
that this race is now too close to call, however we’re going to make the same points as we’ve
done on a few occasions and editions:
 Massa will be clear about his role, one that appeals to his country not to risk
committing potential political and economic suicide by voting in the wild card that is
Javier Milei. The negative campaign against Milei and his dubious character will ramp
up even further.
 Massa also knows that the run-off will be a totally different campaign, in which he’ll be
able to “start from zero” (if he plays his cards right), it doesn’t have to be a simple
continuation of what we’ve seen in the last three months.
20

 Milei’s plans currently include plenty of unorthodox pledges, including the wholesale
gutting of many ministerial and government offices and the flagship policy of returning
Argentina to the dollarization we witnessed there in the 1990s. Aside from his personal
style and mannerisms, there’s clearly enough in the mix to have caused nerves among
voters and so we should expect him to tone down the style and move toward a more
politically orthodox right wing substance in order to convince as many Bullrich voters as
possible.
 Massa has already promised to include a wide range of political views in any eventual
government of his, ones that would include the orthodox right wing. As well as
attacking Milei, we can expect Massa to do more of the same and offer his Consensus
Government promise, moving away from the Cristina Kirchner style of left wing
Peronism and offering a more market friendly message.
 But above all, remember that this is Argentina, the Basket Case country to beat them
all where anything can happen and often does.
The bottom line: This desk pencilled in Milei as favourite to win up to this weekend but warned
on several occasion that he wasn’t the shoo-in that most of the foreign observers and
commenters assumed. I don’t mind admitting that Sergio Massa’s performance has been
surprisingly strong, but neither am I shocked about this result. Javier Milei is a weird person, be
in no doubt about that, so aside his “burn it all down” policy message Argentines also have to
reconcile with the idea of putting a wild card in as their Head of State, someone with strong
personal views about many subjects outside of pure politics or economics.. At this point, even
with a gun to my head I couldn’t call this election, but that may change as the next four weeks
unfold so this desk will reserve judgment on a proactive call until the last week of the
campaign. However and considering the economic mess that Argentina faces at present, if
Massa pull off the victory it would be one of the most unlikely comeback victories of recent
times in LatAm (and that’s saying something).
As for what it might mean, the first economic reaction you’ll see is the unofficial Dollar Rate, the
so-called “Dolar Blue”, dropping tomorrow Monday. After recently topping out at over 1,000
Pesos to the Dollar, the rate dropped to around 880/900 late last week when the markets
decided that Milei may still be favourite, but he wasn’t going to win outright today in round one.
As Sergio Massa is now a toss-up for next President and he will not go down the “We Will
Dollarize” or the “We Will Eviscerate The Central Bank” route, that means the Peso will regain
some of its (obviously weakened) spending power. A 10% rally in the Dolar Blue rate and a
Peso trading at 800 tomorrow would be zero shock.
As for mining, our sector of focus, this is a message I’ve repeated for nigh on a year; Whoever
wins will be a miner-friendly government. The macro policies may affect the financial playing
field and one-or-other government may be considered more investable by the world outside
looking in (at least in the near-term), but when it comes to mining the sector will do okay under
Milei or under Massa. Nobody should forget the progress that’s been made by the industry
under the current Fernández government (where Sergio Massa is FinMin) and the way they
have managed to straighten out the mess made by the previous Macri administration (the
supposedly pro-biz government). If Massa wins next month, we may see a knee-jerk reaction
based on party political bias and preferences, but that won’t last for long and I can guarantee,
the Lundins, Bristows and Palmers of this world will get along just fine with whoever forms the
next government.
Ecuador: CONAIE and the “stone in Noboa’s shoe”
“It isn't the mountains ahead to climb that
wear you out; it's the pebble in your shoe.”
Muhammad Ali
It took the main indigenous grouping in Ecuador, CONAIE, until Thursday to publish a
statement on the victory of now President-Elect Daniel Noboa in last weekend’s election and
once they’d congratulated him for his democratically fair win, they then set out their list of 15
demands for action under his new government that saw CONAIE being described as the “Stone
21

in The Shoe” of the incoming President by the experienced local political consultant, Gustavo
Isch, when asked for an opinion by regional newswire BN Americas (11). In Isch’s opinion, the
new-found political power of CONAIE that has moved away from the national assembly and
back to its roots, the way indigenous communities have been largely ignored by national
executives over the years and its current, more militant leadership under Leonidas Iza is a
heady combination and one Noboa will have to address if he wants to keep the peace in
Ecuador over the next two years. As for those 15 demands, we’ll skip the ones that don’t
directly involve our sector of focus and move to the two that matter to mining FDI:
CONAIE wants the Noboa government to recognize and officially sanction the results of the two
referendum votes that happened at the same time as the round one election vote, which 1)
prohibited any further extraction of hydrocarbons from the controversial ITT-43 block in the
Yasuni national park and 2) prohibited metals mining from the Chocó Andino region of central
Ecuador.
More importantly, CONAIE is demanding (and we quote) (12) “A moratorium and integral audit
of mining concessions, guaranteeing collective and environmental rights”. In other words,
CONAIE wants the government to make good on the agreement it signed with the Lasso
government in 2022, part of the accord that ended the protest marches last year, which
includes an agreement to run “prior consultancy” hearings for all exploration stage mining
projects and to give local communities the right of veto on the projects.
We have gone over this issue on several previous occasions and it all boils down to common
sense; If your mining project is hated by locals and has seen long-standing protests against its
existence, it may be in trouble. Examples of hated projects include Loma Larga, Warintza,
Curipamba (though that last one is now in the interesting position of being partially sponsored
by Nobis, the investment arm of the Noboa family empire from which Daniel comes). However,
if your company has done its homework and maintained reasonable relations with its local
communities over time, there’s little to be concerned about. Examples of the good guys include
Cascabel and Fruta del Norte and its not for nothing that I’m a holder of SOLG shares.
Panama: More protests coming for Cobre Panama
The massive Cobre Panama copper mine, majority owned and operated by First Quantum
(FM.to), has been the centre of controversy for a couple of years as the operation has battled
with the government of Panama over a change in its royalties regime. That fight spilled over
into the recent blockade that finally ended when unions and government/company came to an
agreement, but that deal still needed to be legally sanctioned by Panama’s Congress.
That happened last week (13) and caused a right old ruckus, because the law changed required
to see the deal made good was only announced five days before it was debated and then the
debate only lasted 40 minutes before it was passed by a vote of 47 to 6 (with two abstentions).
In a country where law projects can stay in committee for literally years and nothing ever
happens, the optics for the government opposition were incendiary and we immediately had
protests hitting the airwaves. The “Central America Ecclesiastic Ecology Network” (basically the
Catholic church in Panama) published it rejection of the law passage, a teachers’ union in the
region around the Cobre Panama mine went on strike immediately and promised protest
marches as of this coming week and more importantly, the Suntracs union which includes those
workers who went on strike recently and closed Cobre Panama down announced they would
meet to decide on their own protest actions. That will probably be a strike and marches, too.
So Panama’s opposition has objected to the way this deal has been rammed through Congress
and frankly, their howls of protest are more about the Presidential election coming up on May
5th 2024 than anything else. That’s an issue for FM.to, because those who want to be next
President have decided to make the mine their political football and that means the current
antipathy toward one of the biggest copper producers in The Americas (and therefore the
world) is bound to continue for at least six months and, if the “wrong” guys get in, FM.to will
have to go through the whole negotiation process again.
22

Peru’s Mining Minister selling air
Peru’s Minister of Energy and Mining, Óscar Vera, appeared last week (14) at the country’s
Congress to report on progress made by his ministry, an exercise in keeping the elected
members of Congress from calling a confidence vote on him and getting him kicked out of his
job. He had two things to offer them:
First, he explained the progress being made in the bureaucratic quagmire that is the country’s
permitting system and said that instead of lowering the permitting barrier, his ministry was
focused on speeding up the current process. The main push is to allow separate parts of the
permitting process to run concurrently, instead of the current system which demands that one
desk gives the green light before the same set of papers goes to a second desk. Then a third,
etc. We don’t know whether this new push to speed up permitting is working (yet), but we do
know that successive governments in Oeru have promised the same type of improvements but
over the years, things have become worse and not better.
Second, he laid out the project that his ministry expected would move forward in 2024 and the
offerings were sadly laughable. In a country that should be building multi-billion dollar porphyry
mines, all he had were three projects including 1) an U$81m brownfields next to the current
working Ucchuchacua mine (Buenaventura) 2) an new $150m zine mine to be built by Volcan
(which has its own treasury issues, so we’ll see if that gets funded) and 3) the U$603m Bear
Creek Mining Corani project. The last one may have impressed the members of Congress but it
simply made anyone with an inkling of the mining scene in Peru laugh, as we know Corani isn’t
going to get off the ground and needs significantly higher silver prices in order to be viable.
This is the kind of nonsense that passes for official mining policy in Peru, with nobody caring
about real progress and all the public servants too busy covering their backs and trying to
protect their monthly salaries to do anything of use. Peru’s mining sector is set to stagnante
further next year, take that one to the bank.
Market Watching
SilverCrest (SILV) (SIL.to) redux
Last week’s IKN752 ran the numbers on SILV’s decent Q3 of production and suffice to say here
in this brief update, we liked what we saw. The production was in-line with previous quarter,
and the preliminary sales figures of 1.53m oz silver and 14,500 oz gold in the quarter alleviated
some of the market concern about its Las Chispas
SILV: Quarterly Earnings overview mine since that change of operating plan Technical
Report that was published in Q2 and saw the stock
dump. This chart that forecasts a mine operating
income of around U$39.8m (27c/share) was part of
last week’s note and underscores the “good
business as usual” vibes received. On summing up,
we wrote that while my personal preference for this type of trade still rests with Fortuna Silver (FSM)
(FVI.to), mainly due to its higher proportion of
revenues from gold these days, SILV was looking
cheap and a good option, finishing with: “…this is
not a case of comparing better to worse, more like good with slightly better and anyone picking
SILV over FSM at this juncture would get zero dissent from this desk.”
It turns out SILV had a good week. Here are two price charts, side by side, showing a couple of
angles to the recent trading in SILV. Below left is the ten-day chart of SILV alone, including the
pop that came from its 3q23 production NR release and the place where last Sunday’s IKN752
sits. Meanwhile and as we have nothing to hide, below right shows the last five days (not ten)
and its comparative performance to my own preference in this space (let’s call it “small and
23
7.2 8.0 9.1 8.04 3.41 5.62
0.85
4.22 6.53
0.26
7.32 3.83
8.36
0.42 8.93
U$m
80
revenues COGS Mine Op. Inc
70
60
50
40
30
20 10
0
3q22 4q22 1q23 2q23 3q23est
source: company filings

profitable PM producer”), FSM:
That Friday sell-off into this weekend was sharper than most but fits the pattern of the day.
What with the geopolitical scene, daytraders don’t want to hold equities over the weekend and
frankly, you can’t blame them for taking profits. So SILV ended up by beating out FSM slightly
last week and that’s fine by me…if it had beaten FSM by a lot there wouldn’t be any complaints
here, either. As for a “winner”, we’ll probably find out which is a best horse in two and a half
weeks’ time when SILV (Nov 9th) and FSM (Nov 8th) report their quarters. Until then, there’s
every reason to expect SILV to continue its rebound as long as silver and gold get bids.
Following up on Revival Gold (RVG.v)
Last mentioned in the Market Watching section of IKN749 dated September 24th Revival Gold
was one of the stand out presentation at Beaver Creek but despite the solid show, our overall
position was to wait and see as there was no rush to make a call on this stock or its future. A
couple of quotes from our brief note that day:
“…the lack of buyers for this or nearly any other exploreco gold story at the
moment is palpable. Not a bad thing, it will allow your author time to get a
better handle on this stock and its potential before making any real decision.”
And…
“…this company and its resource/project is known to the market and there
are no surprises baked into the stock price, the entire market sentiment has
to change for the better before it becomes a valid speculation on gold.”
And since then…
…we’re down around 15%, during a period in which the price of gold has risen by 4%. That
negative result, both in real terms and compared to gold, isn’t unusual in the exploreco sector
at the moment so there’s no reason to pick on RVG too much. However, it does justify our
decision to wait on the sidelines and see how things develop.
There are smart backers in this stock, all of whom have paid more than the current share price.
24

The recent price weakness began when Pan American (PAAS) dumped its inherited position and
has continued to date, the only news since our last brief heads-up came late September when
RVG announced initial results of an exploration program in a new zone of Beartrack (taking
advantage of a road-cut and showing a few metres of reasonable open pit grade). Nothing that
moves markets much. However, its main price drag is encapsulated in these charts:
RVG.v: Expenses breakdown
5.5
5
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
Please note RVG’s year end is June 30th, so in this case “4q23” is June 30th this year and “1q24”
was the quarter just ended to September 30th. Long story short, RVG must now be getting thin
on treasury cash and the assumed burn of around C$3m/quarter means it will need to finance
soon. We’re in another of those near-term weakness situations, reminiscent of Pan Global these
last few weeks, in which the market has sensed weakness and has hammered the equity price
down into the assumed financing news. It’s the way this predatory market is at the moment
and our job, as minnow retail, is to stay out the way until the financing is announced and the
market reacts accordingly. At some point RVG is a buy, this is a better class of exploreco and
has “it’s a mine” written on it…somewhere. This desk will continue to follow its progress with a
view to finding the right buy window.
Conclusion
IKN753 is done, we end with some bullet points:
 We’re yet to see the gold and precious metals miners truly react to the rise in the price
of gold. My best guess is that happens when the earnings start rolling in and people
realize how much money some of these companies are making at Q3 prices, then add
some extra top for Q4. And while there are plenty of candidates for blowout earnings
this time around, WDO.to, SILV, EQX and others, I’m going to stick with Fortuna Silver
(FSM) (FVI.to) as the way to play the sector.
 SolGold is a particular concern, what with the lack of movement after the Ecuador
election and now copper’s continued weakness. I’m going to give it a couple more
weeks, but this loser can’t stay like this forever.
 Ero Copper (ERO.to) may give one last window of deep value before its new mine
sends it to a new level. One to watch as 2023 becomes 2024.
 Argentina never fails to spring surprises. At least Massa and Milei are both miner-
friendly these days.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stock is Minera Alamos (MAI.v). Flash
updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best wishes, Mark
25
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4 tse42q1
C$m RVG.v: Cash treasury per qtr
14
share based paymts
12
G&A
Expl&Eval exp 10
8
6
4
2
0
source: company filings
02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4 tse42q1
source: company filings/IKN ests
srallod
fo
snoillim

Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://erocopper.com/news/ero-coppers-tucuma-project-achieves-major-milestone-at-over-70-physical-completion-
on-track-for-first-copper-production-in-h2/
(2) https://www.provenancegold.com/20231018-provenance-gold-releases-further-results-from-its-maiden-drill-program-
at-eldorado-intersecting-12-meters-of-18.01-gt-gold-within-119-meters-of-3.28-gt-gold-from-surface
(3) https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/copper-drops-on-spike-in-bond-yields-worry-about-china/
(4) https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/iron-ore-slumps-as-china-property-steel-output-woes-persist/
(5) https://www.westerncopperandgold.com/news-and-resources/news-release/western-copper-and-gold-announces-
management-change/
(6) https://www.panglobalresources.com/news/pan-global-increases-private-placement-financing-from-2-million-to-6-
million-due-to-strong-demand
(7) https://orocoresourcecorp.com/news/oroco-announces-23-billion-pre-tax-npv-in-a-pea-for-the-santo-tomas-project
(8) https://kodiakcoppercorp.com/news/news-releases/kodiak-drills-significant-from-surface-copper-at-west-zone-0.58-
cueq-over-254-m-within-0.27-cueq-over-941-m/
(9) https://finance.yahoo.com/news/newcrest-announces-scheme-becomes-effective-011300880.html
(10) https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-require-export-permits-some-graphite-products-dec-1-2023-10-20/
(11) https://www.bnamericas.com/es/noticias/movimiento-indigena-ecuatoriano-seria-piedra-en-el-zapato-para-nueva-
administracion
(12) https://www.infobae.com/america/agencias/2023/10/20/el-movimiento-indigena-de-ecuador-advierte-a-noboa-
sobre-emprender-politicas-neoliberales/
(13) https://www.prensa.com/politica/red-catolica-ambiental-reitera-rechazo-al-contrato-minero-otros-gremios-anuncian-
cierres-desde-el-lunes/
(14) https://www.reporteminero.cl/noticia/noticias/2023/10/proyectos-peruanos-mineria-hidrocarburos-2024
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2022
Closed in 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
Goldshore Res GSHR.v Nov'22 C$0.18 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 88.9% Quick profit taken
Palamina Corp PA.v Dec'22 C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.08 -72.9% Clear-out of underperformer
Pure Gold PGM.h Dec'22 C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.015 -89.3% tiny trade on vh risk, went Ch11
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Set-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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