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The IKN Weekly
Week 752, October 15th 2023
Contents
This Week: In Today’s Edition, Literally wrong about Scotland, Past inflation and future sales.
Fundamental Analysis: Gold > Copper: The two preferred near-term trades.
Stocks to Follow: Minera Alamos (MAI.v), Newcore Gold (NCAU.v), Amerigo (ARG.to).
The Copper Basket: Overview, Pan Global Resources (PGZ.v), Element 29 Resources (ECU.v).
Producer Basket: Overview, Barrick (GOLD) (ABX.to), Hecla Mining (HL), Newmont (NEM).
The TinyCaps Basket: Overview, South Star (STS.v).
Regional Politics: Ecuador: Noboa wins, Argentina: A big weekend ahead, Argentina: The
Peso sinks, Chile and permitting bureaucracy, El Salvador: More signals of the new pro-mining
attitude.
Market Watching: SilverCrest (SILV) (SIL.to) 3q23 production and sales numbers.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
In Today’s Edition
 The way of The IKN Weekly is to use its different sections as and when required. This
weekend, the main need is to get the Big Picture call right in view of the changing
backdrop of world events and the move we saw in the price of gold. That makes
today’s intro section longer than some of the brief starts to recent editions.
 Conversely, today’s “main” fundies section doesn’t do much, instead we run a quick
strategy piece on why two stocks currently held by your author and featured in the
Stocks to Follow section stand out as potential trades in our new scenario for PM
stocks. That’s a nudge to own and trade Fortuna Silver (FSM) and Equinox Gold (EQX)
if you hadn’t taken the hint already.
 It was a week in which the larger caps made more noise and provided more news than
the juniors, our normal focus. Therefore some notes on the numbers posted by Barrick,
by Hecla and another look at SilverCrest (SILV) as it posted another good set of
production numbers…bubbling under and it’s quite tempting at these prices.
 But the Regional Politics is probably the place where this week’s best work is done
(even though I’m fully aware it’s not everyone’s favourite section). Argentina is a week
away from its first round, we confirm the expected win for Daniel Noboa in Ecuador’s
run-off today, plus a revisit to the intriguing developments in El Salvador. Off the
mining radar for many years, that may become A Thing in 2024 so keep an eye out for
juniors who may start to sniff around and try to pick up concessions.
Literally wrong about Scotland
Thanks are due to those readers who picked up upon what is best described in the modern
vernacular as a brainfart, as in IKN751 I managed to confuse the names Robert Burns and
Robert Bruce. To clear up the crass error, the former is the 18th century literary figure and
author of "To a Mouse (on Turning Her Up in Her Nest With the Plough, November, 1785), the
latter is the 13th and 14th century king who had been dead for over 450 years before the
1

words I attributed to him were even written. I should have known better and in fact do, but
wrong is wrong and apologies due to all Scottish readers.
Past inflation and future sales
I mean the truth untold,
The pity of war, the pity war distilled.
Now men will go content with what we spoiled.
Or, discontent, boil bloody, and be spilled.
Strange Meeting, Wilfred Owen, 1918
Before anything, we’ll just lay down two or three lines of script to solve 1,600 years of religious
tensions in the Middle East and offer the obvious solution that is staring everyone in the face.
Frankly, it mystifies this desk as to why nobody has thought of it before.
In other words, this desk has to recognize the mess that helped drive up the price of gold last
week. There’s no avoiding words like Israel or Gaza, but there’s no point in voicing a political,
humanitarian or personal opinion on the horrors or the violence because for one thing, my
opinion is of zero importance and for another, there’s nothing my neurons could possibly come
up that hasn’t been thought over a thousand times already by far smarter brains that have
forgotten more than I know about the whole sorry situation. Therefore, you will have to excuse
this desk for moving to our normal focus of gold, the markets and what it all means for the
junior mining sector we follow and cover but I can assure you, it’s not for a lack of caring.
We begin. Last week’s message that gold may enjoy a “…temporary knee-jerk as money
decides to make its way to one of the classic safe havens and when trading opens later this
evening a spike is always possible, but do not bank on heightened geopolitical risk as a serious
or long-term impetus to the gold price.” Indeed that spike came, but in this case it was
followed up by a second and larger move as the world watched risk heighten and took action
accordingly. This desk reiterates that in the 21st century, gold’s safe haven moves are
temporary in nature and that once risk is perceived as topping out, the mini rally will come to
an end. However, on “big occasions” the price pop gets more legs and runs further. Russia’s
invasion of Ukraine is one such occasion and this week saw the same phenomenon. Here’s one
a hundred possible quotes as illustration (1):
"Investors are fleeing to safe havens as the risks of Middle East tensions grow," said
Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA.
"If the geopolitical situation gets gloomier, there is a good chance that gold prices
could go to the $2,000 levels this year. We have come from mid-$1,800s to mid-
$1,900s, $2,000 is just a fraction of that."
Does that mean the “don’t bank on gold higher” observation from last week’s intro was wrong?
I readily admit that I may have underestimated the size of the move and hey, it’s not as if I
haven’t made a bad call before and hey again, these are the moves that I don’t mind
underestimating, but…
…I’m going to insist on the main message. As the start of the Ukraine showed us in 2022,
gold’s move will only stick if there is a corroborating market and I’m sure we all remember the
moment when the war’s effects on gold were superseded by the Fed and its new policy course
set on combating inflation (around the time that Jay Powell saw the temporary blip was nothing
2

of the sort). The Ukraine risk didn’t go away (and hasn’t to this day) but gold was hit by a
change in its real price driver, the macro financial backdrop. To that end and to return to the
present day, Friday’s second wind movement in gold was as much about the new macro
situation as the new heights of Middle East Tensions so we need to factor in the conducive
macro backdrop that has allowed gold to take a clearer role as safe haven.
For that we begin with the inflation read last US Consumer Price Inflation (CPI)
week and CPI on Thursday was the main game;
the consensus forecast was +3.6%, the result
was +3.7%, the market didn’t sweat the tenth,
as the reading matched that of August (chart right). The underlying data supported the thesis that inflation has peaked and the Fed quietly pointed at its target of leaving this year at
+3.5% and how it’s panning out. As a result,
we had normally hawkish FOMC members such
as Patrick Harker moving to the Pause camp
(2):
“Absent a stark turn in what I see in the data and hear from contacts ... I believe that
we are at the point where we can hold rates where they are,” Harker said in prepared
remarks for the Delaware State Chamber of Commerce. “Look, we did a lot, and we
did it very fast.”
He softened that message by also underscoring his established position as a “Higher For
Longer” advocate and said that we shouldn’t expect rate reductions in the foreseeable future,
but the markets take their cue from changes in messaging rather than continued policy
positions. We also had the likes of Paul Krugman raising the hackles of all and sundry on Fintwit
when he unilaterally declared victory in the glorious struggle against inflation (or whatever
other war motif you prefer). Therefore we must be clear; gold rose on Friday as it became clear
the Israel vs Hamas war was about to hot up, but the size of the move was enabled by the
tailwind factors coming from the real long-term driver of the price of gold. As once again, it’s
worth underscoring that the buyers of the monetary metal do now reside or work on Wall
Street:
There was a small uptick in GLD inventory on Friday and that should see some follow-through
in the week ahead, as there’s typically a lag between a trend shift and the arrival of physical
metal in the GLD vaults. But as the inventory/price ratio shows, we’re at low all-time lows for
the sentiment indicator and it would take quite literally hundreds of tonnes added for that
squiggly line to get back to what used to be a “normal” level of financial and insto ownership in
the capitalist hubs of the world. As for the long-term potential of an economic recession, the
indicators for that seem to suggest the risk is rising, no matter how many people are killed in
MENA violence. In today’s edition of The Copper Basket below we see that our fears for a
softening in spot prices have been well-founded and this weekend, spot sits at under U$3.60/lb.
Meanwhile, that other traditional bellwether of economic well-being from the precious metals
3
4.1 7.1 6.2 2.4 0.5 4.5 4.5 3.5 4.5 2.6 8.6 0.7 5.7 9.7 5.8 3.8 6.8 1.9 5.8 3.8 2.8 7.7 1.7 5.6 4.6 0.6 0.5 9.4 0.4 0.3 2.3 7.3 7.3 5.3
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0
0.0
12'naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 22'naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 32'naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced
source: US BLS
GLD gold holdings, 2023 YTD (metric tonnes)
960
950
940
930
920
910
900
890
880
870
860
850
32/1/3 32/1/71 32/1/13 32/2/41 32/2/82 32/3/41 32/3/82 32/4/11 32/4/52 32/5/9 32/5/32 32/6/6 32/6/02 32/7/4 32/7/81 32/8/1 32/8/51 32/8/92 32/9/21 32/9/62 32/01/01
mt 5.60 GLD: Inventory/Price Ratio, 2023 YTD
source: SPDR GLD data 5.50
5.40
5.30
5.20
5.10
5.00
4.90
4.80
4.70
32/1/3 32/1/71 32/1/13 32/2/41 32/2/82 32/3/41 32/3/82 32/4/11 32/4/52 32/5/9 32/5/32 32/6/6 32/6/02 32/7/4 32/7/81 32/8/1 32/8/51 32/8/92 32/9/21 32/9/62 32/01/01
Source: SPDR data, IKN calcs

sector, the Gold/Silver Ratio (GSR), sits at an unhealthy looking 84.8X even after last Friday’s
pop in the price of silver:
We haven’t featured this indicator much of late, but its current level suggests that the world is
debating on how bad the effects of an economic slowdown may be to the real economy. The
first thing to do is erase any thoughts of previous “equilibrium” levels of 75X or so, these days
that level is at the bottom of a rising wedge and we didn’t even see it during that rally at the
end of last year. Instead and these days the fight is more at the 80X to 85X level, the latter
being a number we’ve bumped up against on at least four occasions in the last six months. It’s
where we are today and if the recession many fear materializes, the classic dynamics of the
Gold/Silver Ratio imply that will go higher. As a rough example, a return to the 95X level we
saw in mid-2022 (when fears of a Fed-induced recession were last at a peak) may result in a
gold price of U$2,000/oz and silver around U$21/oz.
It probably goes without saying, but this is a double-edged sword and any improvement of the
economic outlook would also imply a silver price that out-performs that of gold and brings the
GSR down. However and for the moment, the risk seems to the upside on the ratio (and
therefore in detriment to silver), a framework that suits the current portfolio positioning. As for
the near future, we may get a few more clues in the week ahead as on Tuesday morning we
get the US Retail Sales reading for September, with a consensus for +0.2% current among
observers. The other date for the diary is midday Wednesday, when the Fed releases it Beige
Book and will likely come with more “Higher For Longer” narrative as they try to cool
expectations. As for gold, that’s now in the skittish “We’re Watching News” phase of this
temporary (to stress the point) period in which geopolitics may affect its price. The known
unknowns are less of an issue, e.g. we’re all aware that the Israeli armed forces are going to
move into the Gaza region, that shots will be fired, lives lost, buildings reduced to rubble and so
forth. Israel isn’t recalling its reservists or amassing its forces on the frontier of the Gaza region
just for show. What may (repeat MAY) move gold higher is an escalation of conflict and new
fronts opening in other regions, away from the obvious conflict zone Gaza is about to become.
The longer violence is contained in one specific area, the less likely gold is to continue its safe
haven rally.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Gold > Copper: The two preferred near-term trades
Our move away from copper as the place to be in the metals mix started in September as a
rumbling doubt and crystallized into action as from three weeks ago (or four if you include the
“seriously thinking about dumping these copper names” from IKN749). The decision didn’t
come a moment too soon either, as the weakness we feared in the red metal in the near-term
(i.e. for what’s left of this year and perhaps the start of 2024) has indeed begun to materialize.
Selling some exposure has allowed the personal portfolio to go into something of a defensive
mode and takes the pressure off what was beforehand, a very thin cash position.
4

Equally, the call for gold to out-perform copper has also started to work. For sure part of that is
the small matter of the spike in geopolitical risk and they tend to have only a temporary effect
(see above), but making the right call for the wrong reasons is something that happens in this
crazy game. With that in mind and with gold rallying all last week, a short but sweet Fundies
section today underscores what I believe to be strong ways of playing this improvement in gold
price. First, a laundry list of things you want from your prospective trade:
 Producers, not developers or explorecos. When gold moves, you want to be able
to point to the immediate benefit of selling to the market in the days and weeks to
come at higher prices, not to some theoretical improvement in eventual project
economics that can disappear faster than morning mist if the gold price reverts.
 Majority revenues from gold and the more from the monetary metal instead of any
by-product or credit metal, the better.
 Easily traded, liquid market. Now is not the time to buy into thinly-traded juniors
or explorecos, as near-term trades in this volatile market will benefit from the
flexibility of being able to bail at a moment’s notice.
 Strong fundamentals and upcoming catalysts. If you can point to a date in the
near future when you expect good news, it helps frame your trade.
 Multiple mines and a good level of quarterly production. Not an essential, but the
consolidated corporate producer is a better risk prospect than the one-mine
company.
With those laid out, it’s now time to band the table on the two current IKN Weekly trades that
best fit the criteria:
The stock to buy if gold stops rallying is Fortuna Silver (FSM) (FVI.to): Gold’s move
last week was impressive, but it’s anyone’s guess as to whether we see a follow-though or not
in the next five days. In the case that gold continues higher FSM is still a great bet and will
provide plenty of extra upside from today but, unlike other stocks that moved higher last week,
FSM is still significantly undervalued at current gold prices compared with the quarter it is about
to file. We ran plenty of numbers last week so I urge you to revisit that note, but just one chart
from the piece as a reminder of the surge in top line revenues we’re going to get from FSM as
from this quarter, one that’s set to repeat in Q4 and the year ahead:
FSM: Gross sales breakdown by metal, per qtr
300
275
250
225
200
175
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
5
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
U$m
Zn sales
Pb sales
Au sales
Ag sales
source: FSM filings
The 12-month comparative chart with GDX (below) screams “misunderstood stock” to this desk,
perhaps because FSM has gained a reputation of serial bad news delivery in the last couple of
years, what with delays to ramping Lindero, the under-performance and required re-tooling of
Yaramoko, the social and industrial relations issues at San José, all that and the apparent lax
attitude toward health and safety that has resulted in a poor accident rate across its operations.
However, the Q3 numbers as posted ten days ago show FSM is now on course and its new
Séguéla mine will quickly become a jewel in its crown, with a good start to operations and a low
operating cash cost that is set to wow observers.

You don’t need to hold FSM for a long period and indeed, my trade is set up as a speculation on
FSM’s near-term potential as well. It won’t need gold (or silver) to move higher in order to
make good margin and times like these, when a quickly improving stock is ignored by a market
using yesterday’s attitude, are ones to take advantage of by the likes of us, the small and
nimble retail trader. FSM reports its quarter on November 8th and it’s one of those rare
occasions where I may even set up a separate overnight trade to go long the earnings.
The stock to buy if gold continues to rally: Equinox Gold (EQX) (EQX.to): Though it
also improved last week, a quick look at the ten-day comparative chart for EQX versus GDX
(and we add Fortuna Silver (FSM) in there
as a bonus) shows that Equinox has slightly
lagged compared to the field.
That makes sense to me. One of the
attractions of EQX as a trade is its high
cash cost, as it provides the share price
with plenty of leverage in the U$1,900/oz to
U$2,000/oz gold price bracket. It therefore
stands to reason that the price would suffer
more than most with gold’s recent sojourn
to the low-U$1,800oz prices. Now on the
way back, EQX was always going to lag the
field but, if gold continues its run and re-
takes U$2,000/oz on this new round of
world geopolitical jitters the way many say it
EQX: AISC per year
will, EQX is a great place to play that
leverage. As for its earnings surprise
potential, we don’t get pre-announced
production from EQX so we’ll be flying
somewhat blind into its 3q23 earnings report
set for November 1st, but we do know that
Greenstone is apparently on schedule and
budget and at that time, we should get a
clearer explanation as to why EQX ran that
(rather annoying) U$172.5m placement of
converts that stopped the price appreciation
in its tracks last month.
Bottom line: There are other options aside from these two companies, of course. For a larger
size with leverage, you may want to consider Alamos (AGI) or B2Gold (BTG). For the smaller
junior SilverCrest Mining (SILV) (see Market Watching below) or Wesdome Gold (WDO.to) may
fit the bill. For those looking for a higher risk/reward, the black box that is Argonaut Gold
6
929
5201
7431
2261 0561 0061
0041 0041
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
9102 0202 1202 2202 e3202 e4202 e5202 e6202
U$/oz Au
source: company filings, IKN ests

(AR.to) could become a rapid double if they launch Magino with no issues and show that its
new payback schedule for loans is manageable. Those and several others, but when it comes to
The IKN Weekly choices the two that stand out as trades in the new macro backdrop are FSM
and EQX…and probably in that order. Equinox is an obvious place to gain leverage if/when gold
goes higher and my plan to hold to above $2k and then see how the land lies remains intact.
Meanwhile FSM looks all-ends-up cheap at the moment and about to return a great financial
quarter that still seems to be flying under the radar of the larger desks. Even if gold sticks
where it is at these low U$1,900/oz prices, there’s plenty of upside in FSM and anything under
U$3.000 looks like a true bargain from here.
Stocks to Follow
The Stocks to Follow list returned a mixed bunch of results, with decent recoveries and
rebounds for the better known precious metals stocks and a bunch of laggards among (what’s
left of) the small copper positions and the tinycaps we hold or follow. After the culling last week
we’re left with 17 on the table and of those, eight were winners (MAI.v, EQX, FSM, NCAU.v,
RIO.v, WEX.v, PAU.cse, LBC.v), three were unchanged (MIRL.cse, SURG.v, LBC.v) and six were
losers (ARG.to, SOLG.to, CTGO, ALDE.v, MARI.to, MENE.v). Most of those were modest moves
in either direction, the exceptions being the losses in Mene Inc (MENE.v down 21.1%) and
Contango ORE (CTGO down 7.4%), then the improvements in Rugby Resources (RUG.v up
25.0%) and Provenance Gold (PAU.cse up 11.8%).
We have pared back to 17 open positions, three below our self-imposed maximum. Four are in
the green the others are in the red. Part of the job from here is to keep powder dry.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.305 45.3% $0.75 first tgt, #1 idea
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Amerigo Res ARG.to hold C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.24 -8.8% cut size but still big Cu play
SolGold SOLG.to BUY C$0.265 19-Feb-23 C$0.18 -32.1% Cu in Ecuador, M&A tgt
Equinox Gold EQX STR BUY U$4.46 30-May-23 U$4.42 -0.9% Au leverage trade, painful week
Fortuna Silver FSM STR BUY U$2.92 13-Aug-23 U$2.94 0.7% New trade, want quick flip
Contango Ore CTGO BUY U$18.70 30-Jul-23 U$17.88 -4.4% new purchase IKN741
Newcore Gold NCAU.v SPEC BUY C$0.205 23-Oct-22 C$0.135 -34.1% Financing closed, bottom in
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v BUY C$0.83 22-Apr-18 C$0.21 -74.7% Cheap on permit probs, appeal
SPECULATIVE TRADES
Western Explor. WEX.v SPEC BUY C$1.87 9-Apr-23 C$0.80 -57.2% Au spec in USA, started badly
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v SPEC BUY C$0.72 16-May-21 C$0.81 12.5% now in drill assay season
Minera IRL MIRL.cse avoid C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.01 -94.9% run into ground byCEO, AVOID
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
Marimaca Copper MARI.to WATCH C$3.65 26-May-23 C$3.60 -1.4% Likely buy, want cheap entry
Surge Copper SURG.v WATCH C$0.11 18-Jun-23 C$0.095 -13.6% tinycap Cu in BC Canada
Provenance Gold PAU.cse WATCH C$0.085 8-Oct-23 C$0.095 11.8% Idaho gold drill play
Libero Copper LBC.v WATCH C$0.065 2-Jul-23 C$0.045 -30.8% Watching for Arg drill permit
Rugby Resources RUG.v WATCH C$0.06 26-Mar-23 C$0.05 -16.7% tinycap Cu in Colombia
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.63 6-Dec-20 C$0.30 -52.4% LT bet, adding slowly
7

CLOSED TRADES IN 2023 date closed close price
Altiplano Metals APN.v jan'23 C$0.31 17-Sep-21 C$0.17 -45.2% delayed and will dilute soon
Western Copper WRN.to mar'23 C$2.02 13-Nov-22 C$2.32 14.9% sold on reduced M&A prob.
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v may'23 C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$1.75 -43.0% Closing on legal action news
Amerigo Res ARG.to may'23 C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.48 8.8% sold 20% to raise cash
Amerigo Res ARG.to oct'23 C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.21 -11.0% sold 10% raise to cash
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v oct'23 C$0.265 25-Apr-21 C$0.12 -54.7% sold raise to cash
Faraday Copper FDY.to oct'23 C$0.79 26-Mar-23 C$0.68 -11.4% sold raise to cash
AbraSilver Res. ABRA.v oct'23 C$0.36 4-Dec-22 C$0.28 -22.2% sold raise to cash
Orecap inv OCI.v oct'23 C$0.04 20-Nov-22 C$0.03 -25.0% sold raise to cash
2015 to 2022 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on a just a couple of our covered companies, as there really was a dearth of
newsflow among covered stocks last week.
Minera Alamos (MAI.v): Over a quiet week for
newsflow for our Stocks to Follow list we’re
mostly reduced to tape-watching, but in this case
there’s something positive to note. Thursday was
the down day for precious metals as the market
first judged the slightly hot inflation number as
bad for precious metals, but in the case of MAI
the volume was conspicuous by its absence.
Conversely, the big rally day saw volume quickly
return and while some funster managed to knock
a full penny off the Friday close price at day’s
end, the only real way for those interested in
owning MAI to get in was to pay up.
To sum up: no sellers to the downside, a lack of
sellers on the upside. That’s the right recipe.
Newcore Gold (NCAU.v): This chart is also
pointing in the right direction, though the mpore
sporadic trading is less impressive than that of
MAI. Still, the “lack of sellers down here”
message holds enough water to make mention
today.
Amerigo Resources (ARG.to): We got the
3q23 production numbers from ARG on October
10th (3) and there were no big surprises, so having crunched the numbers in some detail
recently in IKN748 dated , September 17th 2023 in the note “Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) and
another production hiccup”, I’m going to hold the next big chartfest on the stock until the week
of November 1st when ARG files its financial quarter. Due to its pre-announcement of another
temporary and production glitch three weeks ago, we already knew that production would come
in at 11.1m lbs Cu. Back then we estimated sales of that number at an average received price
of U$3.80/lb, as it happened shipments were slightly lower at 10.98m lbs and the average
received price for the quarter U$3.76/lb. When those are added to the model and other small
adjustments made, the top line revenues estimate drops by half a million USD to U$26m and as
our COGS estimate remains the same, that takes the mine operating loss to an estimated
U$8m. Small changes and we’ll find out the reality in a couple of weeks’ time, but worth a quick
mention all the same. As for trading, even though I’ve lightened slightly if there’s one copper
position I want to remain strong and prove my near-term bearish position wrong on copper, it’s
this one. As it turns out, ARG did better than most copper producer stocks and only lost a
couple of pennies on the week. I do fear somewhat for the earnings week, because the
8

company can telegraph a weak quarter until it’s blue in the face and it will still take some
observers by surprise on the day.
ARG.to: Quarterly Earnings overview
9
624.12
616.1
655.3-
738.8
874.31
503.3-
8-
2.5
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
revenues
COGS
Gross profit
The Copper Basket
After forty-one weeks of 2023, The Copper Basket shows a loss of 17.18% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Solaris Res SLS.to 6.44 146.599 857.60 5.85 -9.2%
2 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.22 92.882 334.38 3.60 11.8%
3 Western Copper WRN.to 2.41 151.597 257.71 1.70 -29.5%
4 Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to 1.92 105.96 165.30 1.56 -18.8%
5 Oroco Res OCO.v 0.91 216.13 144.81 0.67 -26.4%
6 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.78 175.554 142.20 0.81 3.8%
7 Hot Chili HCH.v 0.78 119.455 118.26 0.99 26.9%
8 Faraday Copper FDY.to 0.54 175.2 108.62 0.62 14.8%
9 Regulus Res. REG.v 1.10 124.509 98.36 0.79 -28.2%
10 Pan Global Res PGZ.v 0.46 212.395 35.05 0.165 -64.1%
11 Kodiak Copper KDK.v 1.12 56.2 31.47 0.56 -50.0%
12 QC Copper QCCU.v 0.165 162.815 21.17 0.13 -21.2%
13 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.16 106.25 14.34 0.135 -15.6%
14 Atacama Copper ACOP.v 0.16 35.94 6.83 0.19 18.8%
15 Libero Copper LBC.v 0.155 119.58 5.38 0.045 -71.0%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg -17.18%
Unlike the gold space, the copper sub-sector continued to come under pressure, trading in the
mirror image of the way the gold stocks moved.
The Copper Basket 2023, weekly evolution
While the goldies started slowly and improved all 16%
week, industrial metals did okay Monday and 12%
8%
Tuesday, rising along with the broad markets but
4%
once that mini rally was done and the big boards 0%
got jittery over MENA the Fed and inflation -4%
nerves, they began to move South and didn’t -8%
-12%
stop into the Friday’s close. As for the juniors
-16%
and copper explorecos in our basket, things were -20%
probably even worse than companies that
actually produce copper and once the dust had
settled, just one of our 15 basket components
had a winning week (OCO.v). Four others were unchanged (KDK.v, QCCU.v, LBC.v, ACOP.v)
and notably, all of those are at the tinycap end of the basket. That leaves ten losers (SLS.to,
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2yluj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6gua ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3pes ht01 ht71 ht42 ts1tco ht8 ht51
source: IKN calcs

WRN.to, MARI.to, ASCU.to, ALDE.v, HCH.v, PGZ.v, REG.v, FDY.to, ECU.v) and while most of the
drops were small, the uniform nature on
low-ish volumes isn’t a great sign. There
were two bigger downers in Element 29
(ECU.v down 22.9%) and Faraday Copper
(FDY.to down 7.5%).
The ten-day chart of the most traded
Comex futures contract (Dec’23 HGZ23)
shows that after starting overnight Asia
Monday with an attempted rally, it turned
into a week-long sell-fest for the red metal
and Friday’s heightened geopolitical risk
outlook did its prospects no favours. Aside
the Middle East violence, bearish
sentiment for copper is being driven by
three major factors:
 A Fed now pushing its “Higher For Longer” narrative
 Supply surpluses in 2024
 A new round of ChinaFears on the demand side, with the classic “real estate
concerns” now being hung on the nerves
Of those, we covered the ICSG study on the likelihood of a supply surplus for the rest of 2023
and all 2024 in last week’s edition and that data point gained traction as the week wore on
(LME Week helped its cause). ChinaFears are nothing new, but the addition of the Higher For
Longer Fed to the mix has given traders another reason to sell copper. Here’s a suited person
being quoted by a reporter person (4):
“Higher-for-longer interest rate narrative and consequent slower economic growth
concerns are keeping industrial metals prices on a weaker footing. There could be
more downside for the sector,” said analyst Soni Kumari at ANZ.
Chinese real estate market concerns and rising LME copper stockpiles and mine
supply from South America dented sentiment, she added.
As noted above, it was LME Week in London and, while copper was the winner of the straw poll
early in the week as the “Metal Most Likely” in 2024, as the week wore on and the market drew
the price lower, the atmosphere changed and come Friday it was difficult to find a positive story
on any industrial metal, Dr. Copper most definitely included. The most interesting news item of
the week came from trade floor talk on the state of negotiations between one of the biggest
sellers in the world and the biggest buyer, as reported by Reuters on Wednesday (5):
LONDON, Oct 11 (Reuters) - Russian copper exports to China and expectations of
surpluses have emboldened Chinese buyers to try and dictate how much they will pay
to Codelco for the industrial metal next year, industry sources say.
While European buyers have shunned Russian copper following Moscow's invasion of
Ukraine last year, traders and consumers in China, accounting for around half of global
consumption of the metal used widely in the power and construction industries,
continued to buy Russian metal.
The ample supplies give Chinese buyers an advantage in upcoming negotiations with
Chile's Codelco, the world's largest copper producer, for the premiums they expect to
pay above the London Metal Exchange benchmark price, the sources said.
"China isn't looking great, there is no shortage of material. Codelco might be able to
impose premiums in Europe, but not in China," a copper industry source said.
According to sources with knowledge of the matter, China's largest copper buyers
expect to pay a premium of around $90 per metric ton next year for Codelco's metal,
36% below what they are paying this year.
Meanwhile in Europe, Codelco has offered to sell copper at a premium of $234 a ton to
clients next year, matching this year's record after consumers in the region declined to
renew Russian contracts and looked for alternative sources.
"Codelco isn't in a good negotiating position with China," another copper industry
source said.
10

Clearly, Codelco will be looking to sell as much product as possible to Europe and this just 12
months after setting up dedicated sales offices in Asia and the Chinese mainland to cater for
largely Chinese customers. The final piece in the bearish puzzle is the continued uptick in
mwetals inventories and for that, we turn to our weekly look at the copper inventory data:
 We got a big add this week to the overall global aggregate total, with copper stocks
held by the three official futures systems rising by 28,155mt to close at 259,761mt.
October begins with a small addition to overall world copper stocks, the total rising by
2,074 metric tonnes (mt) to this weekend’s total of 231,882mt.
 A jump in inventories in the week following China’s Golden Week holiday is normal but
not obligatory, so while the big 17,898mt added to SHFE stocks can be put down to the
specific week, it’s still an add at a time when people are watching closely for signals of
the state of demand in the world’s biggest copper consumer (by a distance). It puts
Friday’s close at 56,894mt and that’s still tight, but we again find ourselves tracking the
line set in 2022 (see below) and overall, the data are bearish for copper prices.
 The LME also saw a chunky addition, up 10,725mt to reach a Friday total of 180,900mt.
We once again saw tonnage move into the New Orleans roach motel, but more
significant was the 7,175mt added to its Rotterdam warehouses. A mildly bearish price
signal to add to the others.
 The Comex bucked the world trend but continued with its own, with 508mt leaving its
stores and leaving 21,967mt. No biggie.
The dedicated SHFE chart shows that we’re back to tracking the 2022 pattern again, so if we
get another inventory build next week it would fit right in.
SHFE copper inventory levels, 2018 to 2023
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
11
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
MT Cu 2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
source: Cochilco data
Now for notes on a couple of basket stocks:
Pan Global Resources (PGZ.v): Good news/bad news for the small copper exploreco we’ve
most closely covered without owning in the last few weeks. The bad news is that the price kept
on dropping and at 15c, there now has to be some doubt as to whether its badly construed
$2m placement at 20c is going to fill, even its modest size. The good news is that 15c marked
the bottom, the bargain hunters finally made their move and come Friday and selling
exhaustion, it didn’t take much to move the stock
back up 10% on the day and turn an awful week
into a merely bad one for the company and its share
price. The 10m unit non-brokered placement (share
+ full warrant priced at 30c) is due closed on
October 31st, so there are still 12 trading days
between us and that, a period that’s unlikely to see
massive amounts of upside no matter what copper
does in the meantime. And we reiterate, the major
weakness in the PGZ story today is that even if this
placement is fully filled, it’s not even a quarter’s

worth of cash for the company at its normal burn rate and with a well planned exploration
campaign to fund, the company will be back at the well sooner rather than later. They should
have bitten the bullet and raised more than this, it’s an invitation for trouble in the current
market and a poor executive decision, whether forced by
circumstances or not.
Element 29 Resources (ECU.v): We unfairly pick on
ECU for the second week running due to its WoW 22.9%
drop, but that was nearly all about one measly trade of
1,000 measly shares on a mediocre Friday afternoon and
some trader who had to take whatever price they were
offered. We’ll be able to cheer it as a double figure
percentage winner this time next week.
The Producer Basket
After 41 weeks of 2023, the Producer Basket shows a gain of 0.43% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 47.20 799 31.50 39.43 -16.5%
2 Barrick GOLD 17.18 1761.54 27.73 15.74 -8.4%
3 Agnico Eagle AEM 51.99 488.9 23.76 48.60 -6.5%
4 Wheaton PM WPM 39.08 451.963 19.19 42.47 8.7%
5 Kinross Gold KGC 4.09 1256.1 6.43 5.12 25.2%
6 Alamos Gold AGI 10.11 393.1 4.80 12.20 20.7%
7 B2Gold BTG 3.57 1074.567 3.44 3.20 -10.4%
8 Hecla Mining HL 5.56 610.491 2.53 4.14 -25.5%
9 Eldorado Gold EGO 8.36 185.73 1.82 9.80 17.2%
10 Wesdome Gold WDOFF 5.53 147.526 0.81 5.52 -0.2%
All prices and stock quotes in U$ Port. avg 0.43%
Whoosh. The GDX benchmark rose by 7.7% but if anything, it was eclipsed by the move in the
price of gold and our week-over-week Americas market proxy, GLD, improved by a cool 5.4%
week-over-week, a big move for the monetary metal by any measure. Our list of ten kept pace
with the median (bar a touch) and all ten stocks made gains, with least best performances from
Wesdome (WDOFF up 3.2%) and Newmont (NEM up 4.3%) and the best of the bunch Kinross
(KGC up 11.3%) and Eldorado (EGO up 9.7%).
The 2023 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
comparative to GDX control
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
As far as news goes, it’s the lull before the Q3 storm in the next week or so, as most of the Tier
1 and Tier 2 producers will start reporting their quarters as from the last week of the month
12
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2yluj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6gua ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3pes ht01 ht71 ht42 ts1tco ht8 ht51
The 2023 Producer Basket: Percentage difference
between GDX benchmark & basket (negative = IKN ahead)
4.0%
ikn
3.0%
gdx control
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
source: NYSE, IKN calcs ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2yluj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6gua ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3pes ht01 ht71 ht42 ts1tco ht8 ht51
source: IKN calcs, NYSE data

and it so happens, there’s one flurry of numbers around October 25th and another November
8th. Also, the new trend these days is for fewer companies to pre-release production or sales
numbers and due to that, names such as Agnico, Wheaton, Alamos, Kinross, B2Gold, Eldorado
and others that used to give us early clues will be bigger boxes of surprises come the day.
However, one that still does things the oldschool way is…
Barrick (GOLD) (ABX.to): Thursday saw GOLD pre-announce its 3q23 production and sales
(6) and here’s our preferred tracking chart for the gold sales, with the Q3 breakdown data in
the chart below.
Barrick (GOLD): Segment sales, per qtr Nevada GM Loulo-Gounkoto
Pueblo Viejo Kibali
North Mara Veladero
Bulyanhulu Tongon
Au Koz
Hemlo Buzwagi
1300 Porgera
1200 source: company filings
1100
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1q20 2q20 3q20 4q20 1q21 2q21 3q21 4q21 1q22 2q22 3q22 4q22 1q23 2q23 3q23
A slightly better quarter, but still on the light side as Nevada Gold Mines won’t benefit from a
full quarter of its upgraded mill under Q4 and Pueblo Viejo is still behind on its upgrade
schedule. The NR promised a little of the classic Jam Tomorrow by stating that Q4 should be a
good production quarter and indeed, we see from the last two years that Barrick tends to out-
perform in the last quarters. There was some other good news too, as on Friday the company
announced (7) that its 47.6% owned Porgera moine in PNG had reached an agreement on re-
opening. We can see the last two quarters of registered sales from Porgera on the far left of the
above chart in yellow, but those were remnant sales after the mine had already been put on
Care & Maintenance. Back in its last full year of production, 2019, Porgera produced 597k oz
gold, so over 284k oz attributable to Barrick and that will make a decent difference to its
quarters once the mine is back on line.
Barrick 3q23 Gold Sales
unit Koz Au
Nevada GM 480
Loulo-Gounkoto 145
Pueblo Viejo 77
Kibali 97
North Mara 59
Veladero 47
Bulyanhulu 45
Tongon 46
Hemlo 31
Buzwagi 0
Porgera 0
Total Gold 1027
source: company filings
As for copper, Barrick reported preliminary sales of 101m lbs, in-line with recent quarters.
13

Barrick Copper sales, per qtr
14
011 321 611 801 311 69 101 311 311 311 321 99 98 101 101
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3
Cu Mlbs
source: company filings
Hecla Mining (HL): The other listed company to pre-announce Q3 production last week was
HL and it did so on Thursday (8). The news went down well, as look at the stock price over the
last ten days compared to GDX shows how the market first showed nerves on a soft day about
a potentially soft number. then sprang hard and rose 13.0% on Friday as they turned out to be
less worse than expected.
We already knew that Lucky Friday’s woes would hit the top line production numbers and that
was already baked in, but the numbers when revealed showed that Hecla’s new Keno Hill mine
had managed to cover a lot of the shortfall.
HL: Silver production, per qtr
This chart above left shows the total production ex-Keno Hill (KHSD) and the addition of the
KHSD production in the last two quarters. It was thin stuff in Q2 but the 710,012 oz silver in Q3
brought the corporate total for its major revenue product to 3.534m oz and within the bounds
of reasonable. Here’s a paste out of the relevant part of last week’s NR on KHSD and the
guidance looks good, as well. It won’t give us an average of 444tpd in 4q23, but come 2024 the
implication is nameplate will be achieved (though the intense seasonal cold may slow things
down for the first quarter, we’ll see how that goes).
The Keno Hill mine continued ramping up to full production in the third quarter, producing more
than 700 thousand ounces of silver. Throughput in the quarter averaged 268 tpd with silver
grades of 33 ounces per ton. Tonnage mined was constrained while underground infrastructure
954.3 525.3 676.2 722.3 523.3 546.3 945.3 466.3 140.4
481.0
946.3
17.0
428.2
Moz Ag HL: Gold production, per qtr
5
KHSD
4 silver ex KHSD
3
2
1
0
1q21 2q21 3q21 4q21 1q22 2q22 3q22 4q22 1q23 2q23 3q23
source: company filings
40025
93195
70224 77974 24614 91754 74744 99634 71793 15253 96293
Oz Au
60000
55000
50000
45000
40000
35000
30000 25000 20000
15000
10000
5000
0
1q21 2q21 3q21 4q21 1q22 2q22 3q22 4q22 1q23 2q23 3q23
source: company filings

and ore headings were being developed. Most of the planned infrastructure is complete, and
twelve ore headings should be in place by the end of October. Mill tonnage was limited due to the
availability of a temporary crusher unit. The permanent crusher is expected to be commissioned
by early November, which should increase crusher availability and throughput. Stockpiled ore at
the end of the quarter was approximately 2,100 tons with silver grades of 37 opt. The mill remains
on track to ramp up to 440 tpd by the end of the year.
Along with an adequate number from #2 product gold, HL gave the impression of a company
that may just get away with it in Q3. We should recall that Lucky Friday is expected to remain
off-line through 4q23 and only get back to real work as from 1q24, but assuming it does so and
KHSD is performing at close to its expected capacity by then, HL should look better next year.
Newmont (NEM): The votes went very much as expected last week, with over 96% of voting
Newcrest shareholders approving the merger last week and over 92% of Newmont
shareholders doing the very same thing, a couple of days later. Therefore, we now await the
legalese and final signatures and after that, NEM is going to be a much bigger market cap. We
then get to find out what they plan to do with their newly obtained Solgold shares, among
many other items of interest.
The TinyCaps List
After 41 weeks of 2023, the TinyCaps show a gain of 19.68% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Aurelius Min AUL.v 0.07 49.787 1.00 0.02 -71.4%
Coast Copper COCO.v 0.045 64.001 3.20 0.05 11.1%
District Metals DMX.v 0.075 86.891 17.81 0.205 173.3%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.13 69.962 8.05 0.115 -11.5%
Manitou Gold MTU.v 0.02 344.568 18.95 0.055 175.0%
Nine Mile Metals NINE.cse 0.29 57.025 3.71 0.065 -77.6%
Palamina Corp PA.v 0.08 65.285 7.51 0.115 43.8%
Precipitate Gold PRG.v 0.075 130.367 6.52 0.05 -33.3%
South Star STS.v 0.55 40.129 22.87 0.57 3.6%
Viva Gold VAU.v 0.14 106.721 12.27 0.115 -17.9%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 19.51%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $20m. They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a
little and allowed sub-U$20m market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, but it was a particularly depressing exercise to trawl through the whole of the TSXV and find companies
that are small enough, but with life in them. The vast majority of sub-$20m stocks are broken stocks, either
traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2023. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
Three stocks down (PA.v, PRG.v, VAU.v), two stocks up (LMS.v, STS.v) and five stocks
unchanged (the others), noen of them moved much
TinyCaps, 2023 weekly tracker
and volume was again thin. It’s difficult to drum up 50%
much enthusiasm for this sector at the moment, 45%
40%
things may get more interesting if the bigger stocks 35%
continue their rebound in the next couple of weeks 30%
25%
and cash begins to rotate into the smaller and more 20%
15%
15 10%
5%
0%
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2yluj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6gua ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3pes ht01 ht71 ht42 ts1tco ht8 ht51
source: IKN calcs, TSX data

ignored names. If not, we’ll have to wait until 2024 and the overdue namae refresh when we
bring new companies into the list, but at least today we have notes on one of the 2023
components that looks set to stay in the basket next year.
South Star (STS.v): Over on LinkedIn, STS CEO Richard Pearce posted a video (9) showing
the construction of the primary/secondary crusher assemblies at its Santa Cruz graphite mine in
Brazil, now nearing the end of its construction. Though there’s a feeling STS is going to miss
putting the mine into production this quarter as planned, that was always a tight timeline and if
they are up and running by 1q24 that should be good enough to impress the market. The stock
continues to jump on sporadic buying interest, only to drop back down to this 50c-60c default
level when things inevitably go quiet again. There’s always a risk that the company will throw
an unexpected spanner in the works and STs is a high risk speculation, but to its credit it is
delivering on plans and in its own words, is about to out on line the first new graphite mine in
The Americas since 1996. No mean achievement and this is certainly one we’ll continue to
follow in 2024.
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future
I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
Ecuador: Noboa wins
Today’s top story is also the last thing to be written in this weekend’s edition. The official
results will take a few days, but the fast count in Ecuador is a reasonable measure and as at
midnight tonight Sunday/Monday and with 95.75% of votes tallied, this is the headline result:
 Daniel Noboa: 52.12% of valid votes
 Luisa González: 47.88% of valid votes
Those numbers do not take into account the spoiled ballots of absenteeism in this mandatory
vote (around 83% of the country voted actively) but they are what really matters and mean
Daniel Noboa, son of the banana millionaire and business magnate Álvaro Noboa, is President
Elect of Ecuador and will become Head of State until the current Presidential period ends in
2025. Indeed, the losing run-off candidate Luisa González has already spoken with the winner
and congratulated him on his victory, which in itself is a good signal that this troubled country
will get a smooth transfer of power. Noboa will be the youngest ever President of the country.
He comes from the right wing, pro-business monied established of the country, ticks the boxes
for wealth, the image of success and the picture-perfect wife and children. He’s both educated
and intelligent (a less common combo than you’d imagine), ran a smart campaign and proved
himself in the TV debates. He’s the epitome of the LatAm family scion made good and we wish
him every fortune in his new role. He’s going to need it, but before the inevitable problems we
should expect him to enjoy a honeymoon period, not least because he replaces the generally
disliked Guillermo Lasso. To that end, expect this result to get a clear thumb-up from the
financial markets and that means stocks exposed to Ecuador will rally.
That includes Ecuador mining stocks, of course. This was part of the forecast made last
weekend in IKN751…
“Noboa is therefore hot favourite to win and while that’s going to be bad for
the country in the medium-term (policy-wise, he’ll be very similar to the highly
unpopular outgoing Lasso), Noboa will get his honeymoon period and his
suite of pro-business, free market policiers will go down well with outside
observers. As such, expect mining stocks exposed to Ecuador to rally as from
October 16th (i.e. eight days’ time) and that means you have this week to
position accordingly.”
…and all that is true as stands this weekend with results in-hand. We are holders of the beaten-
16

up SolGold (SOLG.to) and have held through in the expectation of a mining-friendly result and a
pathway for a deal. Our thesis includes the assumption that a new government will clear the
way for nervous big money to move on Cascabel, so we’ll be looking for a rally as from
tomorrow Monday morning.
Argentina: A big weekend ahead
A big weekend awaits Argentina: First on Friday the country’s Rugby team plays New Zealand in
the semi-final of the World Cup, then on Sunday the nation goes to the polls for the Presidential
election in which the independent/libertarian/right-wing/populist (use the moniker of
preference) Javier Milei is widely tipped to win the vote. However…
1) It’s now looking very unlikely that Milei win outright, therefore the election is set to go
to the second round run-off in November
2) It’s now looking highly likely that Sergio Massa, the candidate from the current
government, will take the second spot in next weekend’s election and a place in the
run-off.
3) What’s more, recent polls suggest that Massa has closed the gap on Milei.
There are a plethora of polling companies in Argentina and part of the task in following any
election there is to sort them for quality, as some firms are biased heavily in favour of their
preferred candidate. We therefore need to filter out results such as those from pro-govt pollster
Atlas Intel that has had Sergio Massa in the lead for a few weeks (as well as pro-Milei houses
that are still predicting a landslide and first round victory) and get our sample down to polling
companies with a reasonable reputation and track record. When we do that, we see Javier Milei
polling at between 30% and 35% of valid votes, Sergio Massa at between 26% and 32%, then
the orthodox right wing candidacy of Patricia Bullrich fading into third at general 22% to 26%.
Therefore Milei will likely come up short of the 40% of votes +10% lead he’d need for an
outright win next weekend. That brings Massa into the mix and here’s where things are starting
to show a little momentum coming for the government candidate. Please check the data for
yourself on this comprehensive list of recent national polling results (10), but in order to make
our point we focus in on the gap between Milei and Massa as seen by polling companies in their
two most recent results:
 In its September 3rd survey, polling company Consultora Tendencias gave Javier Milei a
4.7% lead over Sergio Massa. In its subsequent survey published October 12th the same
polling company put the gap at 0.4%.
 In its September 25th survey, polling company Circuitos Consultora gave Javier Milei a
3.4% lead over Sergio Massa. In its subsequent survey published October 11th the same
polling company put the gap at 1.8%.
 In its September 28th survey, polling company CB Consultora gave Javier Milei a 3.3%
lead over Sergio Massa. In its subsequent survey published October 11th the same polling
company put the gap at 0.8%.
 In its September 20th survey, polling company Opinaia gave Javier Milei a 7% lead over
Sergio Massa. In its subsequent survey published October 11th the same polling company
put the gap at 3%.
 In its September 21st survey, polling company Proyeccion Consultores gave Javier Milei a
4.6% lead over Sergio Massa. In its subsequent survey published October 9th the same
polling company put the gap at 4.6%.
 In its September 18th survey, polling company Giacobbe & Assoc gave Javier Milei a 6.5%
lead over Sergio Massa. In its subsequent survey published October 7th the same polling
company put the gap at 4.4%.
It’s not some massive tide change in trends and in all cases, Milei still leads the voter intention.
However, there are clear signs of a little campaign fatigue for the frontrunner and the strategy
adopted by Sergio Massa to pledge a coalition government that would reach across the
17

ideological divide and build a coalition government with right and left wing participants has
brought some modest success in the lead-up to the election. At the same time, even though
Javier Milei has adopted a more serious image and tried to bring his campaign into the political
centre, he still hasn’t convinced those who consider him too much of a wild card and are afraid
that his eventual Presidency would become too volatile for a country that’s already
institutionally unstable and to that end, the ruckus he kicked off via his comments on the
Argentine Peso last week has even seen a criminal case opened against him See below for more
on that, but in the event of a Massa/Milei run-off we can confidently expect the government
candidate to campaign on some variety of “better the devil you know” platform.
Be clear: Milei is still favourite to win in Argentina this year and all polls put him in a clear lead
in the eventual second round ballot versus Massa. However and this is something we’ve
stressed for a few weeks, we’re a long way from the apparent default position taken by most
casual outside observers that Milei is a shoo-in. Favourite yes, certainty no.
Argentina: The Peso sinks
Quite the week for Argentina’s currency, too. This 2023 YTD chart of Argentina’s Peso against
the US Dollar from local financial website Dolarito (11) is a visual aid and to the right, shows
how the exchange rate did another mini collapse last week and the unofficial “Dolar Blue”
(we’ve added another semi-official rate, the “Contado Con Liqui”, to show there are more ways
of exchanging USD for ARS) rate that started at 350 to the USD at the start of the year topped
out on Thursday at over 3X that price:
As noted on that chart, the first big downleg to the forex came when Javier Milei won the PASO
“primaries style” vote in August and his stated intent to dollarize the economy took a big step
forward. The Dolar Blue forex eventually levelled out around the 750/1 level until the start of
October and then took another big leap when Milei opened her mouth last week. Here’s how
The New York Times reported it:
The fun started two weekends ago, when Milei was quoted as saying at a campaign lunch for
HNW business supporters that “the higher the Peso (exchange rate) goes, the easier it will be
to dollarize (the economy).” Then on Monday in a radio interview (12), he was asked what
people should do with their savings and whether they should roll over their Peso savings
accounts. Milei answered, “Never in Pesos, never in Pesos. The Peso is the currency emitted by
Argentina’s politicians and therefore isn’t worth an excrement, because that rubbish even even
good to make compost.” Soon after that, one of his financial henchmen added fuel to the fire
18

by telling Argentines to sell their Pesos and buy dollars before it was too late. All this made the
front pages the next morning and off the currency went on its own little run dropping around
30% in the spaced of hours as people formed queues at informal exchange houses (known in
Buenos Aires as “caves”).
The events and repercussions quickly turned into the political football of the week and his most
likely rival for the presidency, current FinMin Sergio Massa, made his point (13): “He doesn’t
care about the people, he only cares about an attractive sound bite to make a headline in the
media. We’re faced with a bunch of irresponsible people who don’tn think about (the well being
of ) Argentina, instead they talk among themselves to decide how they come across in a
newspaper headline without thinking about tomorrow.” He also got blowback from the
Association of Banks, that published a communiqué to criticize Milei as his words “caused
concern among a large section of the population.” We even had the IMF chipping in (14), when
Argentina’s biggest creditor made it clear they were worried about whether it would be able to
pay its dues as the Peso collapses and stated that “inflation is running at around 122% for
2023, however it will depend on the evolution of the exchange rate and any new hardline
poltical measures.” That’s code for “we expect Argentina to default if Milei wins”…after all, that
is essentially what dollarization is. The cherry on this particular cake came from a State
prosecutor who, at the behest of President Alberto Fernández, on Wednesday opened a criminal
case against Milei and on Friday confirmed that the case would proceed, looking to charge Milei
with “destabilization” crimes. It makes for good theatre with a week left before the vote, what
remains to be seen is whether the fear campaign being raised against the frontrunner will pay
off next Sunday. A week to go.
Chile and permitting bureaucracy
This is a subject we have bumped up against here at The IKN Weekly over the last year and a
half on a practical level, first with the permit denial handed to Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v) and its Fenix
project and since then, the seemingly endless track to get the issue to the appeal level which
continues to this day and, as reported last weekend, still has no end in sight. This week a
report appeared in Chile’s trade media site “Nueva Minería” with a title that translates
reasonably as “Medium-Scale Mining: Permitting That Punishes” (15). The sub-head gives a
good idea of the article’s contents:
“Medium-scale mining production has rebounded notably in recent years, but costs and
the uncertainty that it faces when applying for environmental permits threatens to bring
its development to a halt.”
Nothing we haven’t experienced first-hand in that statement and when the report quotes Juan
Carlos Guajardo, director of big regional mining services company Plusmining, from a speech he
made at a National Mining Society (SONAMI) event, there is more we’ll recognize:
“Without doubt, the bureaucracy of environmental permits has become a problem and
has hit the medium-scale mining sector harder than the large-scale mining sector, as
its activities come with a much shorter operational planning horizon.”
Or in English, as large-scale mining projects take many years (sometimes over a decade) to
come to fruition, their permitting track can handle bureaucratic delays and red-tape more easily
than a medium-scale miner, which has a shorter period for development and is often looking at
a dwindling cash treasury as it waits to deploy and develop their project. This second quote
from one Cristián Argandoña, vice-president of Sonami and also the CEO of the “Las Cenizas”
mining company, goes further:
“The environmental aspect is impeding real, formal and equitable development in this
industry. It is unjust that over a 40 year period a large-scale mine is admitted into a
system of evaluation and approval just once, while a medium-scale mine may have to
be examined up to seven times because the authorities must revise all the project over
and over again, with different criteria and different ways of interpreting the same data.”
The good news is that these complaints are now coming out of the shadows and are becoming
part of the debate, an issue being used by those looking to the mining industry to go back to its
role of Chile’s economic dynamo. They tend to be in the right wing opposition ranks to the Boric
19

government but it’s becoming increasingly difficult for his left wing government to ignore these
arguments or put them subservient to its more ideological, pro-environment policy stance.
El Salvador: More signals of the new pro-mining attitude
Back in IKN749 dated September 24th 2023 in the main Regional Politics note that week, “El
Salvador and a Presidential election and mining”, we reported on an issue that has flown under
nearly all mining radars in recent times: That the government of right wing and highly popular
President Nayib Bukele looked set to re-open the country to formal level metals mining in 2024
assuming that President Bukele were re-elected (and that despite the current country laws
prohibiting him from running again. As both his candidacy and eventual victory in 2024 look
highly likely, recent jungle drums from the country may make it into the Next Big Thing from
exploration stage mining companies looking for highly prospective and cheap land packages to
explore and develop for metals, be they gold/precious or other.
Since that note, this report (16) has been published by Central America independent media
channel El Faro. The original is dated October 4th and features an extended interview with one
Vidalina Morales, resident of the Cabañas community where the most advanced gold mining
Project in El Salvador is located, the El Dorado project owned by Pacific Rim, now a subsidiary
of OceanaGold (OGC.to). Ms Morales is the president of the local community group ADES
(Asociación de Desarrollo Económico) which has been in the front line of opposition to the El
Dorado Project for around 20 years and was one of the main forces that brought the nationwide
ban on mining into force back in 2017, considered a major victory for the anti-mining lobby at
the time. Here’s the title line and sub-header, as they give you a good idea of the contents:
“If Mining Returns, It Will Bring More Crime and Death”
The president of ADES, Vidalina Morales, speaks clearly on how evidence growing
about the intentions of the government to revert the ban on metals mining in El
Salvador. “We’ve been clear about this from day one, we see much clearer indications
today” says the environmentalist about the reasons they have to state that the
probability of mining returning to the country is growing. While living under martial law
and a curfew in her Cabañas locality, she fears for what may happen to the anti-mining
movement.
The note is long and covers many aspects of the general political backdrop in Cabañas and
around the El Dorado project, the efforts being made by the mining company representatives to
bring locals onside to its development and also the recent State of Emergency declared in her
region, connected with President Bukele’s fight against organized gangs in El Salvador, that she
fears will bring in the mining company and get the project moving forward against the will of
locals. This small section covers the Q&A when the reporter asks her why she believes the
mining industry is about to come back to the country:
Reporter: Tell me a little more about why this has raised your suspicions
Vidalina Morales: They are indications that have been seen since 2020 in government
spheres to run metals mining. There are three main indications that make us suspect
the government intentions. Cabañas is a place that has shown resistence against the
non-renewable extractive economic model and, by arresting our colleagues, they are
looking to silence us… we are witnessing the re-opening of the metals mining sector
sector.
Reporter: What are the indications that get you to denounce this?
Vidalina Morales: These days we see the signs more clearly. (First) El Salvador has
been incorporated into the Inter-Government Forum on Mining Minerals, Metals and
Sustainable Development. (Second) there is a new law that runs parallel to the current
mining law, the Law for the Creation of the General Directorate of Energy,
Hydrocarbons and Mines. (Third) A very high public sector budget has been allocated
by the government for work to revise the (mining) laws and bring them up to date.
These are the three clear signals that we have been denouncing since 2022…..we
have insisted that there is no need to revert the law (that prohibits mining), but the
indications we have found are to the contrary. Or in other words, why do we have to
create a Directorate of Hydrocarbons and Mines if there is a law that prohibits mining?”
Back to the election and last week, the country’s electoral authority TSE made the formal
request for candidatures from those who would run. Bukele (and others) have until October 26th
20

to inscribe, at which point we’ll be able to witness the way the TSE decides to circumvent the
law to allow Bukele to run (and expect the squeals from his opposition when that happens).
The campaign proper then kicks of in early November and according to a recent poll, even
though he’s still not an official candidate Bukele enjoys a 68.4% voter intention level for the
election, set to happen on February 4th next year.
Market Watching
SilverCrest (SILV) (SIL.to) 3q23 production and sales numbers
I was suitably impressed with the NR out of SilverCrest (SILV) (SIL.to) on Wednesday that
offered up its preliminary 3q23 production and sales results (17) and by the looks of the ten-
day chart, so was the market. SILV shares popped nicely on the news and after that rough
Thursday, were ready as one of the front-rank movers on that busy Friday for PM stocks. As
SILV is a company we’ve recently covered due to its price drop on the news of a change in
mining techniques at Las Chispas (along with the doubts that has brought to bear on forecasts
and financial expectations, it’s worth taking a few column inches today to update on what we
know and see if there’s any reason to change our mind about the current “Like It But Prefer
Others” trade decision.
The essence of the operational change to Las Chispas, as announced in late July, is a move to
away from cut-and-fill and toward more long-hole stoping, with additional sustaining capital
required to make the change. This should result in cheaper and more efficient mining at the
expense of upfront capital and lower average head grades
to the mill. These changes don’t happen overnight and not SILV: Ore mined/milled
totally done before 2026, but we should start seeing a
difference in the mining mix of the gradual switch as from
2024. It is therefore a little early to expect SILV to show
operational changes in 3q23, but any signs of the move
are welcome. The mined/milled tonnages improved slightly
in the quarter, with 114,500mt going through the
processing facility. Milled tonnage is lower and the
difference is made up by stockpiles, part of the long-term
plan now being to mine more from underground and get
to 1,200tpd directly from the mining ops, thereby taking
the pressure off stockpiles.
Moving to production and sales, I’m going to save a little time and space by leaving out the
recovery percentages for both silver and gold (they run around 98%, this is easy milling stuff)
and show just grade, then overall production and preliminary sales data. Here are the charts for
silver, covering around 60% of top line revenues…
…and here are the charts for gold, accounting for the other approx 40%:
21
000401 004401 009701 005411
mt
140000 Ore mined
120000 Ore milled
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
3q22 4q22 1q23 2q23 3q23
source: company filings
SILV: Silver head grade (g/t)
283 914 944 314
SILV: Silver production & sales, per qtr
550
500
450
400
350
300
250 200
150
100
50
0
4q22 1q23 2q23 3q23
source: company filings
41.0
1
63.1 54.1 35.1
Moz Ag
1.8
1.6 prod
1.4 sales
1.2
1
0.8 0.6
0.4
0.2
0
1q22 2q22 3q22 4q22 1q23
source: company filings

SILV: Gold head grade (g/t)
So, that’s 1.53m oz of silver and 14,500 oz of gold sold by the company in 3q23. Once you plug
in some approximate average received prices for silver and gold, that gives U$63.8m of top line
revenues (approx U$35.8m in silver, approx U$28m in gold). From there, a lot will depend on
the cost profile reported by SILV and the following chart is a best-guess only, but as long as the
company doesn’t start stuffing op-ex with charges from its decision to move toward long-hole
stoping, the guesstimated U$24m in COGS for the quarter would imply Mine Operating Income
of U$39.8m, or 27c/share. That would be a penny higher than the 2q23 result and would
indicate SILV is capable of constant results, despite the negative news delivered in the quarter.
As for EPS, that should improve compared to 2q23 as the previous quarter had an U$8.6m
forex adjustment to swallow and those effects have now largely washed through, what with the
Mexican Peso having done most of its revaluation already. I’m slightly tempted to go into the
weeds on other financial estimates but as 1) the SILV
balance sheet is basically debt free and rock solid
already and 2) what matters is covering the
sustaining capex charges in 2024, rather than
anything this year, I’ll just go with a snapshot of how
we see working capital evolving on the back of the
company’s obviously profitable mine and be done.
Other guesstimates on financials for another day.
Bottom line: SILV rallied last week on the back of its
3q23 production numbers and quite right too. If we
repeat the same ten-day timescale as the price chart
above and compare SILV to the main silver producers’ ETF (SIL), the out-performance on the
week is clear. However, you’ve already noticed that I also added Fortuna }silver (FSM) to the
same chart and within margins of error, those
two ran by the same amount of approx 11%
over the two week period.
For similar reasons too; as noted last weekend in
IKN751, FSM also impressed with its 3q23
production numbers and got its reward six days
before SILV, with the two moves coming to the
same result. Which brings me to my last point,
22
76.3 60.4 48.4 53.4
SILV: Gold production & sales, per qtr
5.5
5
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5 2
1.5
1
0.5
0
4q22 1q23 2q23 3q23
source: company filings
00411 00241 00431 00541
Oz Au
20000
18000 prod
16000 sales
14000
12000
10000 8000
6000
4000
2000
0
2q22 3q22 4q22 1q23 2q23 3q23
source: company filings
SILV: Quarterly Earnings overview
7.2 8.0 9.1 8.04 3.41 5.62
0.85
4.22 6.53
0.26
7.32 3.83
8.36
0.42 8.93
U$m SILV: EPS, per qtr
80 revenues COGS Mine Op. Inc
70
60
50
40
30
20 10
0
3q22 4q22 1q23 2q23 3q23est
source: company filings
8.8-
1.2-
8.4
9.5- 0.6- 2.2-
2.71
3.21
5.81 0.61 3.81 3.81
20.0
17.5
15.0
12.5
10.0
7.5
5.0
2.5
0.0 -2.5
-5.0 -7.5 -10.0
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
U$/share
source: company filings, IKN calcs
SILV: Working Capital per qtr
68.621
96.222
33.391 43.671 55.971 26.061 17.641
70.921 198.47 464.17 553.69 511 331 151
240
220
200
180
160
140
120 100
80 60
40
20
0
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4 tse42q1
source company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim

that I don’t see any personal reason to own SILV at the moment because its space in my
personal portfolio is covered by FSM.
The word “personal” was used twice deliberately. This has to be a subjective call and a lot
depends on your preferences. In this case, most readers should know by now that I much
prefer exposure to gold over silver and in this case, FSM gets more of its revenue from gold
(around 77% these days) than silver or its minor industrial metals income, whereas SILV is
more silver than gold. Then there’s the fact that FSM is a multi-mine company, while SILV is
essentially valued on Las Chispas alone. Again, let’s underscore that this is neither good nor bad
and there are advantages in both ways, but in the long-run the risk management profile is
better for a company that has several source of income and not prone to devastation if one
mine goes off line for whatever reason. There’s also the financial comparatives, as FSM has
more debt on its books but has just got through a large capex spending period (e.g. Séguéla
and the Yaramoko re-build). Meanwhile, SILV is financially debt-free and that’s a good thing,
but the Technical Report came with a 77% increase in sustaining capex estimates for Las
Chispas and that’s capitalization in its future, rather than the past. Once again, there are no
“right” answers on which to prefer but there are personal preferences and for me, FSM is in a
sweeter spot for near-term equity gains than SILV. And for sure, I could be wrong.
The bottom line is that despite its name, if you prefer a growth gold story over a growth silver
story, I’m keener on Fortuna Silver right now than SilverCrest, but let there be no doubt, this is
not a case of comparing better to worse, more like good with slightly better and anyone picking
SILV over FSM at this juncture would get zero dissent from this desk.
Conclusion
IKN752 is done, we end with some bullet points:
 Gold rose sharply last week on Geopoliticals and while the move is welcome and in the
right direction, we can only reiterate that these effects are no longer ones you can bank
on to make a lasting difference to gold. There’s a lot of bad news now baked into the
price pop, including the likely “normal” bloody scenarios as Israel’s forces enter Gaza. If
gold moves sharply higher again in the week ahead (and it may), that would be
particularly bad news for MENA stability as it would mean things are not under political
control.
 Gold is, however, the place to be in this current backdrop for miners and the bifurcation
is showed against copper provides plenty of evidence. Behind the newsflow there’s still
the latent threat of recession, that’s the real price driver in the days and months to
come.
 Gun to head, the way to play this is with Fortuna Silver (FSM), which is set to impress
the market on earnings day November 8th no matter what gold does in the next three
weeks.
 Meanwhile in Ecuador, as long as wider world events allow expect equities exposed to
the country to move higher on the news that Daniel Noboa has won his race. And in
Argentina, the fun is only just beginning.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stock is Minera Alamos (MAI.v). Flash
updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best wishes, Mark
23

Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/gold-gains-safe-haven-inflows-set-best-week-since-march-2023-10-
13/
(2) https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/13/philadelphia-fed-president-harker-advocates-holding-interest-rates-where-they-
are.html
(3) https://amerigoresources.com/_resources/news/nr-20231010.pdf
(4) https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/copper-extends-losses-on-firm-dollar-us-interest-rate-worries/
(5) https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lme-week-chinas-copper-buyers-152744118.html
(6) https://www.barrick.com/English/news/news-details/2023/special-mining-lease-signals-porgera-restart/default.aspx
(7) https://www.barrick.com/English/news/news-details/2023/barrick-set-for-strong-finish-to-the-year/default.aspx
(8) https://ir.hecla.com/News--Media/news-releases/news-details/2023/Hecla-Announces-Third-Quarter-
Production/default.aspx
(9) https://www.linkedin.com/posts/richardlpearce_things-are-going-fast-now-as-the-assemblies-activity-
7118573598868398080-_nIw?
(10)
https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anexo:Encuestas_de_intenci%C3%B3n_de_voto_para_las_elecciones_presidenciales_de_
Argentina_de_2023
(11) https://www.dolarito.ar/cotizaciones-historicas/dolar/informal/2023/cotizacion-historica-del-dolar-informal-
a%C3%B1o-2023
(12) https://www.cronista.com/economia-politica/que-piensa-milei-sobre-el-dolar-blue-y-que-planea-hacer-la-libertad-
avanza-frente-a-la-disparada/
(13) https://rpp.pe/mundo/argentina/javier-milei-niega-ser-responsable-del-aumento-en-el-dolar-blue-en-argentina-
noticia-1509933?ref=rpp
(14) https://dfsud.com/ripe/fmi-advirtio-sobre-la-inflacion-en-argentina-y-puso-objeciones-al-plan
(15) https://www.nuevamineria.com/revista/mediana-mineria-permisologia-que-castiga/
(16) https://elfaro.net/es/202310/el_salvador/27096/si-vuelve-la-mineria-mas-criminalizacion-y-mas-muerte-nos-espera
(17) https://www.silvercrestmetals.com/news/2023/index.php?content_id=525
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2022
Closed in 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
Goldshore Res GSHR.v Nov'22 C$0.18 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 88.9% Quick profit taken
Palamina Corp PA.v Dec'22 C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.08 -72.9% Clear-out of underperformer
Pure Gold PGM.h Dec'22 C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.015 -89.3% tiny trade on vh risk, went Ch11
24

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Set-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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