IKN #751Premium

The IKN Weekly
Week 751, October 8th 2023
Contents
This Week: In Today’s Edition, An apology, Canada Thanksgiving, Feeding us more numbers,
Gold still better placed than copper.
Fundamental Analysis: Fortuna Silver (FSM) (FVI.to) delivers on 3q23 production.
Stocks to Follow: QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v), Faraday Copper (FDY.to), AbraSilver
(ABRA.v), Orecap Inv (OCI.v), Amerigo Resources (ARG.to), Provenance Gold (PAU.cse), Minera
Alamos (MAI.v), Amerigo Resources (ARG.to), Newcore Gold (NCAU.v), Marimaca Copper
(MARI.to), Minera IRL (MIRL.cse), Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v), Equinox Gold (EQX), Aldebaran (ALDE.v),
Surge Copper (SURG.v).
The Copper Basket: Overview, Pan Global Resources (PGZ.v), Kodiak Copper (KDK.v),
Element 29 Resources (ECU.v), QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v).
Producer Basket: Overview, Newmont (NEM), Wesdome Gold (WDO.to) (WDOFF).
The TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Viva Gold (VAU.v).
Regional Politics: Ecuador: One week to go, Argentina: Quick polling and election update,
Colombia: The Environment Minister shows her cards.
Market Watching: A tale of two Ecuador copper explorecos, Solaris (SLS.to) and SolGold
(SOLG.L) (SOLG.to).
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
In Today’s Edition
 Fortuna Silver (FSM) (FVI.to) did what we wanted it to do and reported a strong 3q23
production last week, as well as guiding well for the final quarter of the year. We run
the numbers in today’s main fundies section and even though its share price hasn’t
taken off yet, it’s nice to report on good numbers for a change.
 Plenty of copper stock news this week, with the metal unfortunately doing what we
thought it might do and dropping lower last week, that Friday Jobs number rally
notwithstanding. See those in Stocks to Follow, in The Copper Basket (natch) and
Stocks to Follow as well.
 Also in Stocks to Follow, plenty of updates on other stocks we own and/or cover and
one of note is our Top Pick Minera Alamos (MAI.v), which had real news for us last
week that went down well with the market.
 As for Regional Politics, we make that proactive call on next weekend’s election and
believe there’s money to be made by assuming a Daniel Noboa victory next Sunday.
Also, please pay attention to the Colombia segment, as the anti-miners running the
country have begun to tip their hand.
An apology
Before IKN751 goes any further, I’d like to take a couple of lines and apologize for the state of
last weekend’s edition, IKN750. Although it had plenty of content, the main note regarding the
four sales was much shorter than I’d planned and the final editing, text cleaning process, typo
weeding etc was sorely lacking (and I know I’m a bad case when it comes to leaving typos
1

hanging out there, but last week was much worse than normal). I know that, you know that, so
now comes the whining excuse: After a normal weekend and a normal Sunday, around 6pm
last Sunday evening it became apparent that I’d eaten something earlier in the day that had
disagreed with me. Fortunately, nobody else in the family had shared it, but my evening
included a sudden and painful case of food poisoning. As things got worse I considered
delaying publication for 24 hours but, as circumstances would have it, the clear intention of
calling sell on so many positions in IKN750 meant I felt obligated to get the edition out, so I did
as much as I could under the circumstances (which involved sudden and extended trips to the
bathroom, no more details required or desired) and sent it as seen.
Not my finest moment, to put it mildly. Once I was in some sort of shape Monday evening (by
Tuesday all was 100% again) I revisited the edition and the wholesale numbers of typos, the
chunks of script that needed deciphering and the number errors were plain embarrassing. It
was entirely my fault too, as I’m the one that ate something I shouldn’t have eaten and I
shouldn’t have been as lazy on Saturday and more advanced with the edition come Sunday
evening. Anyway, with this in mind I’m sure you’ll be able to look back at IKN750 and spot the
parts that were written before Sunday and those that turned into a last-minute rush job. My
apologies once again, expect better today and in future editions.
Canada Thanksgiving
It’s the second Monday in October, therefore a reminder to readers that the Canadian stock
markets (TSX, TSXV, CSE etc) are closed for business tomorrow Monday October 9th for the
country’s Thanksgiving Day. Business as usual in all other markets and in Canada as from
Tuesday.
Feeding us more numbers
The Moving Finger writes; and having writ,
Moves on: nor all your Piety nor Wit
Shall lure it back to cancel half a Line,
Nor all your Tears wash out a Word of it.
Rubáiyát of Omar Khayyám, Stanza 36*
After the blow-out jobs number on Friday, its +336k NFP and evidence of lower pressure on
wage rises enough to breathe new life into US equities and cause bonds to sell off further, the
financial world has baked those numbers in so
US Consumer Price Inflation (CPI)
the news cycle moves on to this week’s key US
macro number. While the US Producer Price
Index scheduled for release on Wednesday will
get market radar (forecast consensus +0.3%),
it’s the Consumer Price Index on Thursday morning that matters most. Last month’s was
forecast at +3.6% and came in slightly hot at
+3.7%, this time our trusty source for all US
data matters (1) tells us that, “…consensus is for
a 0.3% increase in CPI, and a 0.3% increase in
core CPI. The consensus is for CPI to be up
3.6% year-over-year and core CPI to be up 4.1% YoY.” The tracking chart (right) reflects that
with a new estimate bar and as usual, there’s the +3.5% bar for the end of the year, the one
that the Fed has targeted for the last six months or so. They said it, not me.
*In fact, this famous segment of poetry is more accurately entitled “Edward FitzGerald’s 1859 translation of the
Rubáiyát of Omar Khayyám, Stanza 36.” One of the most fascinating “works of translation” of all time, FitzGerald took
liberal artistic license with the original Persian script in order to give it a cadence and structure that would appeal to the
(Victorian) English reader. There’s a large body of academic work on the Rubáiyát and almost as much ink is spilled on
the meaning and inferences of the FitzGerald version as that of the original.
Gold still better placed than copper
Unfortunately and as I’m sure you’re aware by now, geopolitical turmoil has once again taken
over world headlines this weekend. The only good news I have on this is that you’re not going
to get a blow-by-blow or any sort of op-ed from these pages on the events in Israel, instead we
2
4.1 7.1
6.2 2.4
0.5 4.5 4.5 3.5 4.5 2.6 8.6 0.7 5.7 9.7 5.8 3.8 6.8 1.9 5.8 3.8 2.8 7.7 1.7 5.6 4.6 0.6 0.5 9.4
0.4 0.3 2.3 7.3
6.3 5.3
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0 4.0 3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
12'naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 22'naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 32'naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced
source: US BLS

merely remind readers that we have plenty of proof and examples to state clearly that, in our
modern times, geopoliticals do not affect the price of
gold, not in any permanent way at least, so the
message of this Reuters header needs to be taken
with a pinch of salt.
We may get a temporary knee-jerk as money decides
to make its way to one of the classic safe havens and when trading opens later this evening
[EDIT: gold opened up around +1% at the start of trading] a spike is always possible, but do
not bank on heightened geopolitical risk as a serious or long-term impetus to the gold price.
Not this time, not any time and that’s all you get on this weekend’s violent events, please see
your social media channel of choice for more if required, here we move on to focused metals
market comment. Our conjecture last weekend on gold being better placed than copper has
borne out, so far at least. This five day chart of (quasi) spot gold and copper, with silver thrown
in for fun, shows that while all three metals lost ground in US Dollar terms last week one of
them did far better than the others and the out-performance would have been even wider if we
hadn’t enjoyed that Friday post-jobs rally.
And once again, gold is playing the safe haven role despite its continued rejection from the
suited and booted of Wall St, as GLD physical stocks took another leg down and closed out
Friday at 865.85 metric tonnes, another 7.79mt leaving its stores since last weekend.
Meanwhile, after adding 28.9mt in August China has reportedly added another 29mt in
September, the first Central Bank to report its additions and the 11th month in a row that China
has added to its gold reserves.
GLD gold holdings, 2023 YTD (metric tonnes)
960
950
940
930
920
910
900
890
880
870
860
850
Meanwhile, copper and silver in the above chart are showing the pattern you’d expect for
recession signals. While the Gold/Silver Ratio is a classic indicator of economics health, copper
does the same thing and Monday through Thursday last week showed the market doing a clear
“less worse” on gold compared to the other two metals more closely associated with industrial
activity. Even Friday, when that strong jobs number saw silver and copper pop harder than
gold, was a signal that this ratio is working the way it should as, if the world can give us the
3
32/1/3 32/1/81 32/2/2 32/2/71 32/3/4 32/3/91 32/4/3 32/4/81 32/5/3 32/5/81 32/6/2 32/6/71 32/7/2 32/7/71 32/8/1 32/8/61 32/8/13 32/9/51 32/9/03
5.60 GLD: Inventory/Price Ratio, 2023 YTD
mt
source: SPDR GLD data 5.50
5.40
5.30
5.20
5.10
5.00
4.90
4.80
4.70
32/1/3 32/1/81 32/2/2 32/2/71 32/3/4 32/3/91 32/4/3 32/4/81 32/5/3 32/5/81 32/6/2 32/6/71 32/7/2 32/7/71 32/8/1 32/8/61 32/8/13 32/9/51 32/9/03
Source: SPDR data, IKN calcs

Goldilocks Soft Landing (insert Federal Reserves copyright and Trade Mark here) we’d see that
rally extend. However and for the moment, one day’s worth of trading around one dataset isn’t
enough to ignore the recession prospects now looming.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Fortuna Silver (FSM) (FVI.to) delivers on 3q23 production
Very early in the morning on Thursday October 5th and about a week before this desk expected
the news to drop, Fortuna Silver (FSM) (FVI.to) announced its preliminary 3q23 production
numbers in this NR (2) entitled “Séguéla drives
Fortuna to record gold equivalent production of
128,671 ounces in the third quarter 2023”. That
old cap markets saying of how good news
travels quickly (and bad news slowly) proves
out once again, as this quarter lived up to our
expectations and impressed both this desk and
the market (right).
The vibes 1) were already good and they were
confirmed when the NR dropped 2), around a
week earlier than any FSM production NR in
recent years and the good times continued as
the stock held onto its early gains and beat
GDX by around 4% on the week. Difficult to
complain too much, though this desk lets out a small sigh while considering that even with this
positive move, our position build at under U$3.00 is still slightly underwater. But hey, that’s my
problem. So let’s have a look at what the market liked, starting with the overall consolidated
production numbers and we’ll leave the minor zinc and lead numbers from Caylloma to one side
for a moment (they tend to be consistent quarter by quarter, we’ll add in their sales estimates
later) and we go with the two major products, i.e. gold and silver. Here’s the gold quarterly
totals, plus our revised estimate for 4q23:
FSM: Consolidated gold production
4
0369 4566
52411 03532 33623 35213
26356
58067
76866 24126 35266 09936 29006 84346
27749
009601
120000
110000
100000
90000
80000
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
Oz Au
source: FSM data, IKN ests
The Q3 total gold production was always going to be a record for the company, what with
Séguéla coming on line in correct style, but the 94,772 oz was better than even optimistic
market projections and certainly beat our own, conservatively-pitched, estimate of 82,600oz
into the proverbial cocked hat. As for silver…
FSM Consolidated silver sales, by qtr
2200000
2000000
1800000
1600000
1400000
1200000
1000000
800000
600000
400000
200000
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
Oz Ag Caylloma
San José
source: FSM data, IKN ests

…we knew San José would still be in recovery mode after its recent stoppage and our
guesstimate for that mine was very close, but a small beat out of Caylloma made the total
1.681m oz and a few thousand over our forecast. However, we should see even better from
both metals in Q4, as seen in our revised estimates for 106,900 oz gold and 1.85m oz silver.
With gold now estimated responsible for around 78% of gross revenues at FSM, we’ve already
made the pithy comment that it’s time the company changed its corporate name and the trend
will only continue as Séguéla gets into full gear, Yaramoko gets back to its nameplate potential
and Lindero closes out its current period in the mining cycle with lower grades. Now for a closer
look at each of its mines, we’ll leave the new operation and the headliner of this quarter until
last, but there’s still good news from other places. We do them in this order:
 Yaramoko
 Lindero
 San José
 Caylloma
 Séguéla
And once that’s done, some additional thoughts on the consolidated production data before
moving to an updated financials model for Q3 (and new Q4 estimates, as well). Here we go:
Yaramoko: We expected Yaramoko to start bouncing back as from this quarter after an
extended period during which FSM has put in required capex work to get the mine back to its
potential. And sure enough…
Yaramoko: Gold production, per qtr
5
15782 78782 53282 35542 03172 09162 73462 20092
63043
00582
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
Oz Au
source: FSM; filings, IKN ests
… it did so. The 34,036oz Au produced was a great result and has pushed full year guidance up
to between 110k and 120k oz. With that in mind and trying not to assume they manage to top
end of that automatically, we’re guesstimating a Q4 at 28,500, some 2,500 oz more than our
previous estimate, which would make 2023 118,000oz or so.
Lindero: The only true disappointment of the quarter, Lindero produced a low 20,933 oz gold
and according to the company, that was due to low grades. They mentioned this was part of
the mine plan and this temporary grade drop was
Lindero: Gold production & sales, per qtr
expected, but it also occurred while the company
was doing higher levels of waste stripping to
prepare easier access to better grades in quarters
to come. The result was a low quarter, but the
company has maintained its 2023 guidance of
between 96k oz and 106k oz. With grades and
mineral placement on pad set to increase, we’re still
forecasting 29,300 oz production for Q4 and that
would bring the annual to 101k oz (plus or minus a
few ounces), i.e. midpoint of guidance.
San José: The Mexico mine was affected by the tail end of its labour disruption in Q3, but
things now seem back to normal and the total production numbers for 3q23 of 8,205oz gold
and 1.373m oz silver were very close to our house guesses.
53901
79212 42981 95532 98363 91682 64503 46003 74872 21862 04152 33902 00392
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000 15000
10000
5000
0
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
Oz Au
source: FSM filings, IKN ests

As for Q4, FSM now guides silver to make the low end of its 2023 guidance for silver (5.3m oz
to 5.8m oz), but it’s going to miss its gold guidance for the year (34k oz to 37k oz). We’re
adjusting our Q4 estimates accordingly as seen above. So that’s 1.67m oz silver and 9,000oz
gold, which hits the low end of annual silver guidance and misses gold guidance by 2,786 oz
Caylloma: The multi-metal nature of this mine means it would take a whole bunch of charts to
show the production make-up, plus it’s also the smallest mine in the FSM suite so it’s less
important. Therefore, instead of the big breakdown we go with the expected cash revenues
chart to give a decent idea of its evolution, without diving into the deep details:
Caylloma: Gross revenues per metal
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
6
91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
FSM San José: Gold production, per qtr
U$m Zn revs
Pb revs
Au revs
Ag revs
source: FSM filings, IKN ests
As you can probably make out, after the good spot prices for the main revenue generators zinc
(Zn) and lead (Pb) in 1q23 and 2q23, we expect Caylloma gross revenues to drop slightly but
still reach U$33m or so for the next two quarters, instead of the U$36.44m gross of Q2. The
type of small hit that’s easily absorbed by the improvements we see in other units.
Séguéla: The company framed its new Séguéla mine as the star of the show and there’s no
doubt it’s started in great style, with this chart
showing production to date (right). After the minor
pre-commercial production in Q2 and by September
7th it was in official commercial production. At that
point, we already knew the unofficial numbers for the
first two months of the quarter were good but it’s
another thing to see a brand new mine already going
through the gears and hitting nameplate production
rhythm this quickly, then staying there. The 31,498oz
production in 3q23 is great, as is the monthly
breakdown as supplied in the NR:
10301 66201 0198 9299 9328 5928 1909 9948 1328
8775
5028 0009
12000 11000
10000
9000
8000
7000
6000 5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
Oz Au FSM San José: Silver prod. & sales, per qtr
2000000
1800000
1600000
1400000
1200000
1000000 800000
600000
400000
200000
0
source: FSM filings, IKN ests
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
Oz Ag
production
sales
source: FSM filings, IKN ests
Oz Au FSM Séguéla: Gold production per qtr
50000
40000
40000
31498
30000
20000
10000 4023
0
1q23 2q23 3q23 4q23est
source: FSM filings, IKN ests

I’ll also lean on the NR notes for commentary, as well as the early guidance for Séguéla in Q4:
“Throughput at the processing plant was gradually increased throughout the quarter,
achieving 174 t/hr in September, 13 percent higher than nameplate capacity. In the
fourth quarter, Séguéla expects to benefit from this consistent higher throughput. The
operation will continue optimization activities with the aim of further increasing mill
throughput capacity.”
Bottom line: FSM has delivered Séguéla on time, on budget and as for production, it’s flown out
the traps and our best estimate 40,000 oz for 4q23 is predicated on what we saw in September
and the continuing good start in 2023.
Consolidated production: We ran the basic chart at the start, this one does the same thing
in its total but also breaks down the component parts for gold, the most important product at
Fortuna “Silver” Mines Inc these days:
FSM: Consolidated gold production by qtr
110000
100000
90000 40000
80000 31498
70000 4023
60000
50000 28235 24553 27130 26190 28500
26437 29002 34036
40000
30000
20000 30068 29016 30032 29301 25258 25456 20933 29300
10000
8239 8295 9091 8499 8231 5778 8205 9000
0
7
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
Oz Au
San Jose Lindero
Yaramoko Séguéla Caylloma
source: FSM data, IKN ests for 3q24/4q24
Then a reminder of the silver production breakdown, that metal coming from two mines San
José and Caylloma:
FSM Consolidated silver sales, by qtr
2200000
2000000
1800000
1600000
1400000
1200000
1000000
800000
600000
400000
200000
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
Oz Ag Caylloma
San José
source: FSM data, IKN ests
Finally, a reminder that there’s some minor Caylloma
Caylloma: Zn and PB sales (Mlbs)
base metals production in the revenues mix as well:
30
From there, it’s a question of best-guessing average 25
received prices for the metals and doing a bit of math: 20
15
 For 3q23 we estimate average received prices of
U$1,952/oz for gold, U$23.39/oz for silver, then a flat 10
U$1.00/lb net for the combo of Pb and Zn from 5
Caylloma. 0
 For 4q23 we try to build in some conservatism and
estimate average received prices of U$1,890/oz for
gold, U$23.00/oz for silver, then the same flat
U$1.00/lb net for the combo of Pb and Zn from Caylloma.
Those bring these gross revenues:
91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3 tse32q4
Mlbs
Zn sales
Pb sales
source: company filings

FSM: Gross sales breakdown by metal, per qtr
300
275
250
225
200
175
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
8
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
U$m
Zn sales
Pb sales
Au sales
Ag sales
source: FSM filings
After that come a slight downward adjustment, as the gross theoretical total is not the same as
the likely top-line revenue on the P+L, but even so it’s looking very solid for FSM for Q3 and
likely even better in Q4, despite the lower average price input. This chart from the earnings file
forecasts top-line revs at U$235m for 3q23 and U$257m for 4q23 and here, one can appreciate
the step up in production FSM is now taking with Séguéla and a fully functioning Yaramoko now
part of the mix for the first time:
FSM: Quarterly Earnings overview
8.711
5.66
3.15 5.021
1.27
5.84 6.261 2.511 3.74 9.891 6.041 3.85 3.281 8.811 5.36 9.761 3.531 5.23 6.661 9.141 7.42 7.461 7.831 0.62 7.571 2.531 4.04 4.851 5.621 9.13
532
561
07
752
571
28
300
275
250
225
200
175
150
125
100 75
50
25
0
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
U$m
revenues COGS Mine Op. Inc
source: company filings
We’re going to have to wait for the earnings report for better numbers, but if COGS comes in at
our U$165m for 3q23 it leaves a mine operating earnings of U$70m, or just under 23c per
share. Then the same best guesses as seen above for 4q23 offer a Mine Operating Income of
U$82m, or 26.7c/share.
In other words, FSM is shaping up an annualized MOI/Share of U$1 and can be bought this
week for under U$3. This is why I zeroed in on the stock when I did and now own, the only
puzzle is why it remains as inexpensive as it does. My best guess on that is a combo of the
current depressed state of the market for precious metals miners, the serial disappointment
that FSM has been for shareholders over the past couple of years, along with a market that’s in
“Show Me” mode and will only start to rally this
stock when it proves that this revenues outlook
is real, not just a figment of some lonely anal
yst’s imagination. However, this desk fully
expects FSM to run and to run hard once 1) its
3q23 financials come in well 2) its 4q23
production numbers live up to our high
expectations and 3) it guides strongly for 2024.
Hopefully by then you’ll be positioned at these
low prices, because it0s tough to imagine this
stock getting any cheaper without a full-scale
gold collapse happening. Own some.

Stocks to Follow
One of those rollercoaster weeks that would have been worse if it hadn’t been for the jobs
number rally on Friday, but it was still one in which GDXJ lost 1% and copper stocks took a
particular hammering. As for our list, of the 20 stocks open this time last week seven were
week-over-week winners (MAI.v, FSM, CTGO, NCAU.v, MENE.v, QCCU.v, ABRA.v), four were
unchanged (SURG.v, LBC.v, RUG.v, OCI.v) and nine losers (ARG.to, SIOLG.to, EQX, RIO.v,
WEX.v, ALDE.v, MIRL.cse, MARI.to, FDY.to). Of those, the only double figure percentage
movers were the losers Minera IRL (MIRL.cse down 33.3%) and Western (WEX.v down 12.4%).
We did thin out the list last week and four stocks were dropped, but we also added Provenance
Gold (PAU.cse) to the Watch List and that means we now have 17 open positions to track, three
below our self-imposed maximum. Four are in the green and one is unchanged since inception,
the others are in the red and we also have four more red blocs in the Closed Trades section at
the bottom. I own my losers, though I now only own the cash they held instead of the shares.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.30 42.9% $0.75 first tgt, #1 idea
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Amerigo Res ARG.to hold C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.26 -7.4% cut size but still big Cu play
SolGold SOLG.to BUY C$0.265 19-Feb-23 C$0.185 -30.2% Cu in Ecuador, M&A tgt
Equinox Gold EQX BUY U$4.46 30-May-23 U$4.17 -6.5% Au leverage trade, painful week
Fortuna Silver FSM BUY U$2.92 13-Aug-23 U$2.81 -3.8% New trade, want quick flip
Contango Ore CTGO BUY U$18.70 30-Jul-23 U$19.30 3.2% new purchase IKN741
Newcore Gold NCAU.v SPEC BUY C$0.205 23-Oct-22 C$0.125 -39.0% Financing closed, bottom in
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v BUY C$0.83 22-Apr-18 C$0.205 -82.8% Cheap on permit probs, appeal
SPECULATIVE TRADES
Western Explor. WEX.v SPEC BUY C$1.87 9-Apr-23 C$0.78 -58.3% Au spec in USA, started badly
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v SPEC BUY C$0.72 16-May-21 C$0.84 16.7% now in drill assay season
Minera IRL MIRL.cse avoid C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.01 -94.9% run into ground byCEO, AVOID
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
Marimaca Copper MARI.to WATCH C$3.65 26-May-23 C$3.70 1.4% Likely buy, want cheap entry
Surge Copper SURG.v WATCH C$0.11 18-Jun-23 C$0.095 -13.6% tinycap Cu in BC Canada
Provenance Gold PAU.cse WATCH C$0.085 8-Oct-23 C$0.085 0.0% Idaho gold drill play
Libero Copper LBC.v WATCH C$0.065 2-Jul-23 C$0.045 -30.8% Watching for Arg drill permit
Rugby Resources RUG.v WATCH C$0.06 26-Mar-23 C$0.04 -33.3% tinycap Cu in Colombia
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.63 6-Dec-20 C$0.38 -39.7% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2023 date closed close price
Altiplano Metals APN.v jan'23 C$0.31 17-Sep-21 C$0.17 -45.2% delayed and will dilute soon
Western Copper WRN.to mar'23 C$2.02 13-Nov-22 C$2.32 14.9% sold on reduced M&A prob.
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v may'23 C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$1.75 -43.0% Closing on legal action news
Amerigo Res ARG.to may'23 C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.48 8.8% sold 20% to raise cash
Amerigo Res ARG.to oct'23 C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.21 -11.0% sold 10% raise to cash
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v oct'23 C$0.265 25-Apr-21 C$0.12 -54.7% sold raise to cash
Faraday Copper FDY.to oct'23 C$0.79 26-Mar-23 C$0.68 -11.4% sold raise to cash
AbraSilver Res. ABRA.v oct'23 C$0.36 4-Dec-22 C$0.28 -22.2% sold raise to cash
Orecap inv OCI.v oct'23 C$0.04 20-Nov-22 C$0.03 -25.0% sold raise to cash
2015 to 2022 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on a few of our covered companies, starting with a quick line on the changes to
the table by this time next weekend:
9

QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v), Faraday Copper (FDY.to), AbraSilver (ABRA.v), Orecap
Inv (OCI.v): POSITIONS CLOSED, also Amerigo Resources (ARG.to): PARTIAL SALE
MADE. As per IKN750, the first four stocks have been closed and the losses booked, plus I
have sold another minor tranche of ARG in order to raise some more treasury cash. As for some
details, please note that a couple of the positions are closed without me having sold my
personal holding yet (repeat YET, I am selling and as soon as reasonably possible). As for ARG,
I’ve added a “sold 10%” note next to its line item and that’s roughly correct compared to my
holding at this time last week, to give you an idea of my continued support of this company and
why I was happy to see it rally the way it did after my sale.
Provenance Gold (PAU.cse): ADDED TO WATCH LIST. As advised (warned), now that
PAU.cse has done all the things we wanted it’s now a
new component of the Watch List. No extra info PAU.cse: Shares Out
today, aside from confirmation coming in its latest
monthly report to CSE that the new share count is
95.065m and that the current permit for Eldorado is
in good stead, so they will be able to kick off drilling
forthwith. Assuming winter doesn’t close in too
quickly, we should get a new batch of assays back
before the end of the year. This stock is flying under
all radars, it has a very interesting gold project on its
hands and given the right circumstances, it’s the type
of stock that can deliver big gains. High risk, let’s be
clear and I’m only watching for the time being.
Minera Alamos (MAI.v): One of these fine days, the World Hill wake up to the value on offer
here at MAI compared to the rest of a sector replete with mediocrity and buy the merry bejeez
out of this stock. October 3rd and after a mandatory trading halt, Minera Alamos announced (3)
its “Maiden Resource Estimate for the Santana Gold Project, Sonora, Mexico”. Along with the
inordinately delayed news that the small debt financing package for Cerro de Oro is done and
dusted, this is ne of the news items on which we’ve been waiting from MAI and while there
wasn’t much to surprise regular observers of the company, it’s the document that allows the
company to get out there are market its benefits to a wider and more insto-level audience. The
central info from the release is of course the resource table, so here it is:
No bad surprises there. These numbers were generated on a gold price assumption of
U$1,700/oz and a cut-off of 0.15g/t Au. Those are clearly conservative estimates compared to
the current gold price and under other circumstances, would perhaps elicit applause from an
exploreco that’s not trying to BS the market with massaged numbers. But in this case we’re
talking about a mine that’s already in production and the team already has very good handle on
what its cost cut-off is. So for what it’s worth, let’s note that if we assume a global 70%
recovery (as we’ve seen so far)…
((1700/31.1)x0.15)x70%= U$5.74
In other words we have a decent place from which to calculate on-site production costs per
10
5.34 5.34 2.35 0.16 0.16
5.47 5.97 5.97 5.97 5.97 5.97 5.97
5.98 1.59 1.59 1.59
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4 tse42q1 tse42q2
C$m
source: company filings/IKN ests

tonne and unsurprisingly, that number fits in with what we’ve seen from MAI so far…or at least
in the couple of 2022 quarters when the mine was ramping up correctly.
As for the overall resource grade and size, that’s all good. Total M+! of 0.65g/t is slightly higher
than the IKN house estimate, the inferred number in-line. Tonnage isn’t massive at this point
but if we assume MAI gets its production to a level we originally expected, even without further
development of the current pits or exploration of the highly prospective local targets, there’s
enough here for four years of production at 35,000
oz per year in the M+I and another two years in the
inferred category. That’s more than enough to get
on with and we know the corporate policy is to
develop and expand Santana the same way this
team did at Castle Gold.
The market reaction from the news was good (chart
right) with a week-over-week win, a stock that
managed to close with a 3-handle (just) and decent
volume and relative strength all week. Notably,
there was a big ask iceberg sat at 28c for most of
the week which put a line under the price and made
those looking to position take the ask. That’s good, too.
We await news for Santana’s pad expansion permits that will allow the mine to expand
production in the way the company wants and to plan over the long-term. We also await news
of the Cerro de Oro debt package, but that’s of lesser importance than any news of the
permitting track going well.
Amerigo Resources (ARG.to): My partial sale is noted above, here we do the market things
and ARG went through a bit of a price wringer early
week, the first time we’ve seen ARG under the C$1.20
line since November last year when the stock enjoyed
its run on the back of copper’s price pop. Then late
Thursday somebody decided that the bargain of this
high yield divi payer was too much to ignore and a
decent chunk of stock was bought up to $1.32 and
while Friday was quieter, most of those gains held.
So I now look silly for bailing on my small tranche at
C$1.21 (and FWIW, at the time I thought I did quite
well to get out at that price…more foll me) but as I’m
still chunkily long this stock, my near-term timing is of
lesser interest and I hope ARG continues to proce me
wrong on sale timing next week, as well.
Newcore Gold (NCAU.v): I was quietly impressed by the NR from NCAU last week and for
two reasons (4). Firstly, the results of five more column leach tests show the same level of
recoveries from new representative samples from Enchi. Secondly, NCAU go the full nine yards
and cover every aspect of this key met item
that will never do much to move the market
price, but is the kind of information required by
serious observers and potential operators of
any eventual mine. You’ll have to see the whole
NR yourself because there’s a lot of
information, but I was particularly impressed
with the way the 2kg bottle roll recovery results
closely match the 30kb column leach results. In
trading, things remain quiet apart from one
11

thing (right), the 1.6m block trade that went through on Wednesday at 12c. That’s a nice thing
to see and the type of thing you want to see at the bottom of a price cycle.
Marimaca Copper (MARI.to): For what seems like the fifteenth time, MARI has failed to hold
the C$4 line. On the other hand, there are almost the same amount of occasions when the
stcok dips to around where it is this weekend, the $3.50 to $3.70 range, only to rebound
quickly and find the $4 line again:
Almost, that is. Please note that in mid 2022, the time when copper broke down and eventually
bottomed at U$3.17/lb (then took its sweet time at U$3.40/lb or so before moving back), MARI
spent all the time you’d ever want to build a position at $3.00 and dipped as low as $2.50. It’s
tough to call a stock that trades so thinly (plenty of shares are kept away from the float by the
large insider positions) and it would only take real copper weakness and a medium-sized holder
throwing in the towel for a big drop to form. Or it might not.
Minera IRL (MIRL.cse): With just 941 oz shipped In September as per the monthly activities
update filing to CSE, that means…
IRL: Corihuarmi quarterly sales
12
2225 2165 7895 1326 9494 4075 5146 6095 5915 0294 7465 1386 5785 3106 9526 0776 7605 9425 6025 1445 2693 9404 2844
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000 3000
2000
1000
0
81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 32q3
Oz Au
source: IRL filings
…Minera IRL sold just 4,482oz in 3q23. Slightly better than the preceding quarter, but there’s
nothing here that will stop the company from filing yet another operational and net loss. MIRL
is out of cash and about to lose Ollachea to COFIDE, at which point we’ll be able to drop
coverage of this scam once and for all.
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v): As noted over on my Twitter account last week, the news from Chile is of
more annoying delays. They’re inexplicable as well, which makes the whole process so
frustrating. There’s no official word but this desk’s unofficial back channel tells us there is
basically zero chance of Chile’s government offices, mainly the SEA and the associated
Environment Ministry, getting the Fenix appeal to the Comité de Ministros (ministerial appeals
committee) this month and due to the reasons behind it, a public sector logjam, nobody really
knows or wants to guess when the appeal is going to happen. “Maybe December” is as
disheartening as it is vague, but it’s the best anyone had to offer. We understand that in light of
these ongoing delays the company is now planning to lobby the Ministry of Mining and the

newly re-installed Minister Aurora Williams (well respected by all sides in the Chilean mining
world) in order to try and get a push-start on the process, but the issues are apparently deep
inside the Chilean bureaucracy and are not even directly related to Fenix or its appeal. Instead,
the current admin has set off some sort of political infighting (that I’m sadly ignorant about, it’s
too deep down the political rabbit hole for me) and as a result, the whole system has ground to
a near-halt.
RIO.v shares saw some selling last week and I wouldn’t blame anyone for throwing in the towel
through frustration at this point. It was bad enough in July 2022, it’s now October 2023 and
there’s not even a timeline for resolution. Anglo was about two to three months ahead of RIO.v
with its Los Bronces expansion permit appeal, that went through and the appeal granted its
permit five months ago. The only thing we can say is that the delay is not RIO.v’s fault, small
solace though it may be.
Equinox Gold (EQX): Things were going along quite well with our gold leverage trade
Equinox (EQX) until the company managed to take the equity gained by retail and hand it over
to the large instos via that U$172.5m convertible senior notes bought deal that opened on
September 18th and closed September 21st. Since then EQX has traded roughly in line with the
market, but that’s not what we want from this stock.
The whole idea of this trade is to offer leverage to gold in the U$1,900/oz to 2,000/oz gold
trading range, what with its relatively large production base and high cash cost giving us the
type of beta you’d require from a spec trade at those levels. Therefore, seeing gold drop to the
low eighteen hundreds as it did last week is not what we want in this trade set-up, as if that
spot price persists EQX becomes “breakeven at best”. Gold’s rebound on Friday took the
pressure off a little and EQX modestly out-performed the benchmark GDX/J tickers that day,
but the idea is to own something that clearly out-performs, rather than just goes with the flow.
It stands to reason that with its debt pile from the Greenstone build-out and its high average
cash cost at its other operations, EQX is more vulnerable than most to any further gold
downturn. That’s front and centre when it comes to risk management going forward and while
the current trade theory is that industrial metals will fare worse than precious metals into a
recession downturn, any further weakening of gold (e.g. to below U$1,800/oz) will see me
jettisoning ,this trade before other in the PM side of the portfolio. Watching the gold price.
Aldebaran (ALDE.v): Tuesday October 3rd saw ALDE deliver the final holes from the latest
Altar drill campaign and the pick of the bunch was #229, that made the headline 649m of
0.54% CuEq. Along with the webinar offered by the team on 6ix on Thursday (6), there’s a
wealth of information on offer from Altar this week and I could go into the nitty-gritty and get
at least three or four page of script from the stock this week. But I’m not going to do that.
Because…
1) The results, while good, were largely what was expected from the campaign that
continues to target the deep and low-ish grading porphyry target of Altar Central
2) The stock priced moved exactly one cent on the week
13

3) It’s all a bit samo-samo at ALDE while the copper market continues to tread water.
There’s really no rush to own this stock today, its traded volume remains low and with so many
shares in the hands of its insto backers, it’s largely ignored by the wider market. The grades
don’t wow anyone and until the company comes out with an updated resource that shows just
how big Altar is getting, it’s tough to see it grabbing the limelight. However, all those things are
not necessarily bad things and as one subscriber told me “flat is good…flat is the new up” when
it comes to price moves presently. The other major advantage (and something rightly pointed
out during the webinar) is that ALDE is well cashed up these days and has all the funds it needs
to execute in 2023 and all of 2024 without need to top up treasury. That’s good.
Overall, it’s one of the copper stocks I’m least likely to sell if the bottom falls out of the price for
the metal, simply because it’s unlikely to go anywhere for the time being. A hold, and an easy
one at that.
Surge Copper (SURG.v): Monday October 3rd SURG announced (7) the first hole from its
current drill program at Berg and the numbers weren’t bad.
That overall assay of 756m grading 0.26% Cu and minor metals to get the CuEq number to a
slightly less mediocre 0.36% (though at some point we’d need to talk recoveries, metallurgy
and a roasting circuit for the moly) wouldn’t look out of place at Aldebaran’s Altar, which is in
Argentina and not BC and runs a market
cap of nearly C$150m. As at this
weekend SURG is worth under C$22m
and points to the leverage opportunity if
you’re willing to take the risk. This map
shows that hole is located in an
interesting spot as well, at the bottom
right of the visual (#243) and ready to
add to the current known resource in a
meaningful way. So a good enough start
to a modest drill campaign for SURG this
season and the stock price moved up a
notch as a result.
The Copper Basket
After forty weeks of 2023, The Copper Basket shows a loss of 13.81% to level stakes:
14

company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Solaris Res SLS.to 6.44 146.599 859.07 5.86 -9.0%
2 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.22 92.882 343.66 3.70 14.9%
3 Western Copper WRN.to 2.41 151.597 262.26 1.73 -28.2%
4 Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to 1.92 105.96 169.54 1.60 -16.7%
5 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.78 175.554 147.47 0.84 7.7%
6 Oroco Res OCO.v 0.91 216.13 142.65 0.66 -27.5%
7 Hot Chili HCH.v 0.78 119.455 121.84 1.02 30.8%
8 Faraday Copper FDY.to 0.54 175.2 117.38 0.67 24.1%
9 Regulus Res. REG.v 1.10 124.509 99.61 0.80 -27.3%
10 Pan Global Res PGZ.v 0.46 212.395 37.17 0.175 -62.0%
11 Kodiak Copper KDK.v 1.12 56.2 31.47 0.56 -50.0%
12 QC Copper QCCU.v 0.165 162.815 21.17 0.13 -21.2%
13 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.16 106.25 18.59 0.175 9.4%
14 Libero Copper LBC.v 0.155 119.58 5.38 0.045 -71.0%
15 Atacama Copper ACOP.v 0.16 35.94 6.83 0.19 18.8%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg -13.81%
Another small drop to the basket average, The Copper Basket 2023, weekly evolution
16%
another new 2023 low as the headcount of just 12%
four winners (SLS.to, ASCU.to, QCCU.v, ECU.v) 8%
and three unchanged stocks (REG.v, LBC.v, 4%
ACOP.v) were outweighed by eight that went 0%
lower (WRN.to, MARI.to, OCO.v, ALDE.v, HCH.v, -4%
PGZ.v, FDY.to, KDK.v). Big moves were evenly -8%
-12%
split, with two double figure percentage winners
-16%
in Element 29 (ECU.v up 16.7%) and Solaris
Resources (SLS.to up 11.4%), then two losers in
Pan Global (PGZ.v down 14.6%) and Kodiak
Copper (KDK.v down 11.1%).
It could have been worse, as well. This chart
(right) of the main traded Comex futures
contract for copper (HGZ23) shows how copper
took a new shellacking all week, but managed to
rebound on the back of that strong jobs report.
However and equally, there’s no disguising
copper’s bearish outlook at the moment and
those that preach technicals have plenty of
charts to point you toward. The recent failure at
U$3.64/lb (or “under U$8,000/mt”, as the LME
traders care more about that line (see below)) is
one we’ve noted in previous editions, but the
longer-term timelines also show the weakness. It
was slightly surprising when dialling up this two
year chart to remember that the March peak for
stocks didn’t coincide with the best prices for
copper-the-metal in 2023, as they came in
January and since then, all we’ve seen are lower
highs with U$3.70/lb and below regularly
revisited.
As for the curated comment section this week,
we’ll go with two market comments with the first
15
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2yluj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6gua ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3pes ht01 ht71 ht42 ts1tco ht8
source: IKN calcs

from Wednesday (8) when rising inventory data was pooh-poohed by Goldman Sachs as that
firm continued it bullish narrative:
LME copper inventories MCUSTX-TOTAL climbed to 169,900 tons, the highest since
May 2022.
“The primary catalyst for these trends has been the impact from destocking previously
trapped cathode in the DRC (Democratic Republic of Congo) due to a temporary
operation specific government export ban,” Goldman Sachs analysts wrote.
“Once these DRC off-warrant units have been destocked, copper faces acutely low
inventory cover that leaves vulnerability to any tightening shock,” they said in a report.
The second is from Friday (9), when the copper price drop on Thursday was poogh-poohed by
Julius Baer analyst Carsten Menke:
U.S. job growth surged in September, data showed on Friday, suggesting that the
labour market remains strong enough for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates
this year.
“The mood in the base metal markets has deteriorated again, with copper dropping
back below $8,000 per tonne,” said Julius Baer analyst Carsten Menke.
“The fundamental backdrop has not changed that much,” he said. “We believe that the
construction markets are remaining very resilient and that the backdrop in China has
not changed.”
That sentiment was backed up by StoneX analyst Natalie Scott-Gray later on in the same note,
who thinks we should forget about the current dip and think about Christmas:
Recent actual demand for copper and aluminium in China is quite robust due to the
home appliance, electric vehicle, solar and wind sectors and despite the country’s
property sector crisis.
“Looking to year-end… copper may benefit from a pick-up in seasonal demand within
China, further supported by the expectations for an acceleration within fiscal spending,”
said StoneX analyst Natalie Scott-Gray.
Which is all well and good, but I’m going to stick to the numbers and when I do, I’m forced to
take the under against All three of those illustrious sector voices. The whole raison d'être of this
section of The Copper Basket is to keep track of the ebbs and flows in metal prices, but we’ve
been particularly focused in the last few weeks as the market first showed signs of softening,
then did so. So before we get any further, let’s do a quick re-cap the messages contained in the
last few editions. Feel free to look back at IKN747 thru IKN750 and accuse me of cherry picking
if you so desire but for me, these brief excerpts capture the main thrust of each weekend’s
narrative and have followed the sentiment shift. Therefore and to quote myself…
 IKN747 dated September 10th: “We continue to live in a market that is happy to pay
over U$8,000/mt (U$3.62/lb) for copper but refuses to pay anything approaching
U$9,000/mt (U$4.08/lb).”
 IKN748 dated September 17th: “…the battle between a strengthening dollar versus
supportive stimulus out of China and better than expected data (in China) for August”
 IKN749 dated September 24th: “Copper falls to five-week low on hawkish Fed, strong
dollar, high stocks”
 IKN750 dated September 10th: “…this desk isn’t trying to predict the End Of
(China….Capitalism…The World), instead it recognizes that China 2023 hasn’t shaped up
the way most forecasters predicted and has undoubtedly lagged. That’s an issue for
copper…”
Five weekends ago in IKN747 we noted the U$9,000/mt ceiling, but at the time the U$8,000/mt
floor still held. Then as the USD went through the gears and strengthened along with safe
haven moves based around renewed recession talk, Chinese demand and the presumed
stimulus that its government would provide propped up copper. But that hasn’t lasted and as
part of last week’s bearish turn, we noted that China hasn’t stepped up in the way we required.
Sure enough, that manifested last week as the U$8,000/mt floor was breached and while we
can argue technically that copper managed to crawl back to that U$8k level (or U$3.62/lb in old
money) by the end of the week, it’s tenuous at best and would only take one reversal in the
16

days ahead to break definitively.
In sum, we’ve seen a battle of Strong Dollar vs China Demand in the last few weeks and
copper’s new weakness suggests the USD has won that particular fight, but there’s also the
question of supply and the overall market balance for copper. Indeed, in another part of last
weekend’s Copper Basket script, as we referenced some of the thinking behind the sales of
copper explorecos announced earlier in the edition, we noted that the Cochilco weekly copper
market digest covered the supply/demand balance issue with the message “the copper surplus
is now expected to continue into next year” and that was part of the decision to trim sails. To
quote myself a final time (annoying habit), “In your author’s case, that means not basing the
portfolio position today on the likely and widely forecast supply deficit of 2026 and beyond.”
We got more grist for that mill last week from the International Copper Study Group (ICSG),
which last week released its Copper Market Forecast 2023/2024 after its two –day meeting at
its HQ in Lisbon, Portugal. You can find your copy of the presser at this site (10), though
perhaps more succinct is to take the information via the brain of the inimitable Andy Home of
Reuters in this column, “Copper Study Group expects big supply surplus in 2024” (11). As
always with Andy Home, there’s plenty to digest and a full read is recommended but this time,
the first sentences neatly encapsulate the main message:
LONDON, Oct 6 (Reuters) - The copper market will transition from supply-demand
balance in 2023 to a major supply surplus next year, the International Copper Study
Group (ICSG) said after its meeting in Lisbon this week.
Production is forecast to exceed usage by 467,000 metric tons in 2024, a significant
upward revision from the expected 297,000-metric ton surplus at the time of the
Group's last meeting in April.
The Group still thinks the market will be in deficit this year but April's 114,000-metric
ton forecast has been cut to just 27,000 metric tons, which is a marginal number in a
26-million metric ton global market.
The combo of a slight drop in 2024 demand growth and a sizeable hike in refined copper
production (led by China as it builds out its smelter infrastructure) has brought the ICSG
adjustment and while there are caveats and if/then mitigation factors to consider (please, read
the whole note) the overall message is clearly bearish. Here’s how the report ends:
“…the ICSG's update adds to a growing consensus that the copper market is heading
into a period of fast-rising production and uncertain demand in the world outside of
China.
It's that bearish combination that is pressuring the copper price , which has this week
broken down through the $8,000-per metric ton level for the first time since May, last
trading at $7,940.
Everyone's agreed that copper has a bright future in the energy transition, but right
now it's the immediate balance between supply and demand that is weighing on the
market.
To back up that thought, here’s the segment from the ICSG presser that covers the overall
market balance and how they see both 2023 and 2024 and while this year’s info is interesting,
I’d argue at this point that the 2024 prospects are now a bigger price driver for the markets,
what with the most widely traded contracts now with a December market.
 World refined copper balance projections indicate a deficit of about 27,000t for 2023
and a surplus of 467,000t for 2024:
 ICSG recognizes that global market balances can vary from those projected owing to
numerous factors that could alter projections for both production and usage. In this
context, it should be noted that actual market balance outcomes have on recent
occasions deviated from ICSG market balance forecasts due to unforeseen
developments.
 In developing its global market balance, ICSG uses an apparent demand calculation
for China that does not consider changes in unreported stocks (State Reserve Bureau
(SRB), producer, consumer, merchant/trader, bonded) which can be significant during
periods of stocking or de-stocking and which can markedly alter global supply-demand
balances. Apparent copper demand for China is based only on reported data
(production + net trade +/- SHFE stock changes).
17

 ICSG expects a deficit of about 27,000t for 2023 compared to a deficit of about
114,000t forecast last April mainly due to a higher anticipated growth rate in Chinese
apparent usage. A surplus of about 467,000t is expected in 2024 as a consequence of
additional supply compared to a surplus of 298,000t previously predicted in April 2023.
And with those thoughts of supply and demand in our collective heads we turn to our weekly
look at the copper inventory data:
 October begins with a small addition to overall world copper stocks, the total rising by
2,074 metric tonnes (mt) to this weekend’s total of 231,882mt.
 It was Golden Week holiday in China last week and as such, the Shanghai market was
closed for business and there was no change in copper inventory levels, which remain
at 38,996mt.
 A modest addition to global warehouse stocks at the LME, with an aggregate 2,350mt
added to bring Friday’s total to 170,175mt. However and once again, the whole
bailiwick was New Orleans where 3,175mt was added and likely taken off the world
market indefinitely.
 Another small drawdown at the Comex, this week seeing 276mt leaving its stores for a
Friday close total of 22,711mt. No biggie.
So a quiet week and around and particularly in China, what with its vacation last week. As a
small sidebar, it was this time last year (the week after Golden Week) that we saw an unusual
pick-up in stocks on the SHFE for this time of year when, in the space of two weeks, copper
inventory jumped from just over 30,000mt to just under 90,000mt. That’s worth keeping an eye
out for in 2023 because if it repeats, it would remove one of the fundamental props left for the
bullish narrative. In this skittish market, it wouldn’t take much more to send copper South.
SHFE copper inventory levels, 2018 to 2023
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
18
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
MT Cu 2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
source: Cochilco data
Now for notes on a couple of basket stocks:
Pan Global Resources (PGZ.v): We’d expected it and sure enough, it happened. However,
the (non-brokered private) placement financing announced on Wednesday October 4th (12)
came with a disappointment. Here’s the top of the NR and the issue is right here:
VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA – (October 4, 2023) – Pan Global Resources Inc.
(“Pan Global” or the "Company") (TSX-V: PGZ; OTCQX: PGZFF) announces today it is
arranging a non-brokered private placement financing of up to 10,000,000 units (the
“Units”) of securities at a price of $0.20 per Unit for aggregate gross proceeds of up to
$2 million (the “Offering”).
Each Unit will be comprised of one (1) common share and one (1) non-transferable
common share purchase warrant, with each whole warrant entitling the holder to
purchase one additional common share at a price of $0.30 for a period of three (3)
years from closing of the Offering.
That’s a small placement compared to PGZ’s real needs. To illustrate, please compare the cash
treasury and working cap charts and projections we used in our recent reports on the company,

for example in IKN749 and the 2q23 financials review, with these new assumptions:
20 PGZ.v: Working Capital per qtr
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
Previously, we assumed PGZ would raise
something in the region of C$10m and while it
would imply some serious dilution at this point
and price, the thinking was that the company
would have to grasp that particular nettle
because it needed funding for an extensive and
planned development budget that is now
planned to run for the rest iof this year and all
2024. Instead, PGZ is looking to raise just C$2m
as per this announcement and the issue is here
(right):
Even if PGZ cuts its spending to a bare minimum
on other matters and directs as much of its funds
as possible to the ongoing drill campaign at
Romana West (and/or Cañada Honda), its burn
rate is going to be North of C$2.5m per quarter.
As PGZ ended 2q23, i.e. July 2023, with C$3.019m
at bank and there have been no other raises or
means of income, even if we’re generous company
must be down to its last half million by now and
that means this placement adds enough for one
quarter maximum. In other words, PGZ will have
to raise again and the market, realizing this
weakness, moved swiftly and without much pity.
On this news, PGZ saw its price marked down nastily and the generally available 20c and 21c of
last week is now 175.c, with any seller taking 17c. In other words, a new haircut on top of the
ones we’ve already seen and means that since July became August, the stock has literally been
cut in half (YTD chart right). There are logical reasons as to why PGZ might have gone this
route, however they aren’t great arguments. We
know the market is tough and the company may
have found that there simply isn’t the type of cash
it needs for a year’s worth of exploration available,
at whatever price. On that, I’d note that nobody
forced PGAZ to drain its treasury this low before
going back to market and it looks as though they
may have painted themselves into a corner. Indeed,
in the current atmosphere where any weakness is
pounced upon by an aggressive capitalist world,
this weak flank may explain the price weakness we
saw all through August and the start of September
19
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
source company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
PGZ.v: Cash treasury per qtr
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
PGZ.v: Admin expenses
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 tse32q3
C$m other exp
share payments
IR
mgmt fee
office/rent
Exp&Eval
source: company filings

(and once again, that price pop on good news in September had a very short shelf life). For
another, the C-suite may have decided to go the “let’s raise a small amount, impress the
market and then raise again at a better price” route and sad to say, I’ve seen companies make
this mistake before. For sure you might get lucky, but even in a good market you are rolling the
dice and this is far from a good market for those companies needing to finance to stay in
business. Also, this decision to raise $2m comes after the company told us it was talking to
interested parties (plural) on its next financing, so if this is the best offer they got it doesn’t
offer great optics.
Bottom line: PGZ would have been better off raising zero than announcing this placement,
which is too small for its needs and shows its weak flank to all the world, all in a market that
needs no second invitation to do its worst for share prices. This is why, after running multiple
features in the main Fundies section and Market Watching these last few weeks, I decided to
hold off even adding PGZ to the official Watch List before the funding news came out, it’s the
kind of issue that crops up in bear markets. I’m still interested in PGZ as a potential trade
vehicle and thanks to its inclusion in The Copper Basket (that’s almost certain to continue in the
2024 list) we can follow its progress, but for the time being that’s as far as we go. This
company would have been better advised to have bit the bullet, raise a large amount today at a
painful price and cauterize the weak flank. The way they’ve gone, its now an open wound and
will continue to hobble the share price until it moves to raise the amount of money it really
needs for its 2024 development program.
Kodiak Copper (KDK.v): On the other hand, the
corporate side of KDK makes it look like a decent
speculative prospect at this point. We can argue
over the pros and cons of its flagship MPD project
in BC Canada (or even the second string Mohave
project in AZ USA), but on the corporate side it has
kept its financial structure clean. Now at 2023 lows
and interestingly, the same level it touched briefly
in 2022 before rallying into the end of the year,
KDK started at this 50c-or-so level before running
hard in late 2020 and the first discovery holes at
MPD (five year chart, right).
To underscore its reasonable financial position, a quick hack is to compare information as seen
in its December 2022 corporate presentation to the same segment in the latest presentation,
dated October 2023. Here’s the one from December 2022…
THIS FROM DECEMBER 2022
…and this is from the latest edition:
THIS FROM OCTOBER 2023
20

Aside from the share price now being even lower, we note that KDK raised capital earlier in the
year and for all intents and purposes, has kept its treasury intact without any massive dilution
to the share count. It also helps to be a member of the Discovery Group of companies that
comes with a pool of capital investors. So yes, KDK has been hit hard recently and yes, a lot will
always depend on exploration and development success at its projects, but at least KDK hasn’t
painted itself into the same corner where we now find Pan Global (PGZ.v, see above) and on
balance, those of you looking to get speculative on copper or this sub-sector of highly volatile
juniors and explorecos, this offers decent odds. However and be clear, this is an example of
your author full of wise saw and modern instances but not willing to act on his own speculative
advice. I do not own shares of KDK and don’t plan to start in the foreseeable future. But that’s
just me.
Element 29 Resources (ECU.v): A decent little price
pop but, if we step back and consider the last three
months of trading (chart right), volume was wafer thin
from 17c to 15c and back to where we got last Friday,
which saw a 2.5c move on a single 25,000 trade. Don’t
start banking on this type of price action or reading too
much into it.
QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v): With the sale and closing
of the long position in QCCU. Coverage of the stock now
reverts to its line in The Copper Basket and that starts
today, as last week the company delivered a new line of news (13). Despite making us wait for
the Opemiska 43-101, the company has been busy on other fronts and along with the other Ore
Group company we’ve just closed out, Orecap Inc (OCI.v), QCCU has invested in a copper
project in Ontario Canada. Its positioning in the deal is small and rather odd (frankly, it would
probably have been better for QCCU to stick to its knitting and seen OCI take all the Ore Group
participation instead of splitting it between the two companies) but here we are.
Anyway, QCCU is paying $300,000 for 10% of the Thierry project, which has a 43-101
compliant PEA and a resource. The likely future is a new public company floated under the
name Cuprum, with OCI, QCCU and fellow investor Ocean Partners all having strategic holdings
of the newco as it launches.
The Producer Basket
After 40 weeks of 2023, the Producer Basket shows a loss of 6.63% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 47.20 799 30.20 37.80 -19.9%
2 Barrick GOLD 17.18 1761.54 25.68 14.58 -15.1%
3 Agnico Eagle AEM 51.99 488.9 22.05 45.10 -13.3%
4 Wheaton PM WPM 39.08 451.963 17.95 39.72 1.6%
5 Kinross Gold KGC 4.09 1256.1 5.78 4.60 12.5%
6 Alamos Gold AGI 10.11 393.1 4.54 11.55 14.2%
7 B2Gold BTG 3.57 1074.567 3.15 2.93 -17.9%
8 Hecla Mining GFI 5.56 610.491 2.31 3.78 -32.0%
9 Eldorado Gold EGO 8.36 185.73 1.66 8.93 6.8%
10 Wesdome Gold WDOFF 5.53 147.526 0.79 5.35 -3.3%
All prices and stock quotes in U$ Port. avg -6.63%
The GDX benchmark dropped by exactly two cents last week, while our ten picks for 2023 did
slightly better than that by improving 0.41%. We saw seven winners (NEM, GOLD, KGC, AGI,
BTG, EGO, WDOFF) but nothing very big, the largest winner just 2.5%. That leaves three week-
21

over-week losers (AEM, WPM, HL) and not much damage was done there, either. Overall a
quiet week and certainly a lot less painful than the previous two.
The 2023 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
comparative to GDX control
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
Newmont (NEM): It was a very busy week for Newmont as it approaches the big week of
votes for its merger with Newcrest, a deal that has cast its own shadow across the sector for
nearly all of 2023. We saw no fewer than five NRs out of NEM last week and I’m not giving you
all the links, instead here’s a screenshot from the NEM news page:
 On October 1st, NEM announced a new COO and C-suite organization for its expanded
world operations with a view to it impending merger with Newcrest, in effect calving off
The Americas to a VP COO and appointing a new COO for the rest of the world
 On October 3rd, NEM announced it had seen its credit rating reaffirmed. All good.
 On October 4th, NEM announced it was getting into the precious metals coin business in
Canada. No issues with that, but don’t go paying too much of a premium for your gold
coin, simply because the source is the Eleonore mine, the re-sale value will be the same
as any normal coin.
 On October 4th, NEM announced that the Papua New Guinea Securities Commission had
green-lighted its merger with Newcrest. Perhaps not the most important country on its
list and the green light from Australia in September was a bigger moment, but PNG was
the final legal hurdle for the deal and now there’s nothing to stop the merger, bar the
votes next week.
 On October 1st, NEM announced that its strike at the Peñasquito silver (gold and other)
mine in Mexico was over. We’ll come back to that in a moment.
Added to that list, we also saw Newcrest announce its $1.10 Special Dividend for shareholders
of record. Part of the deal with NEM back in Q2 was that NCM could pay a special dividend of
up to that amount as long as the deal goes through
and, with the vote now just days away, Newcrest
went ahead last week and did as they are allowed to
benefit its outgoing shareholders. Which brings us to
the week ahead and on October 11th (Weds) and 13th
(Fri) we have the EGM votes on the merger and with
all the ducks now in-line this should be a rubber-
stamping exercise.
However, the only news event that truly moved the
22
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2yluj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6gua ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3pes ht01 ht71 ht42 ts1tco ht8
The 2023 Producer Basket: Percentage difference
between GDX benchmark & basket (negative = IKN ahead)
4.0%
ikn
3.0%
gdx control
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
source: NYSE, IKN calcs ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2yluj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6gua ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3pes ht01 ht71 ht42 ts1tco ht8
source: IKN calcs, NYSE data

market was the last one, i.e. the news that the Peñasquito strike was over. It lasted almost four
months and in that time, NEM went from blanking union demands to basically giving in to all of
them. The union went on strike to demand a pay rise as well as a 20% bonus payment. The
strike ended with the unions getting an 8% pay rise and a bonus payment that is the greater of
10% of profits for 2023 or 2 months salary, to be paid May 2024 (an implicit 16.7% deal) (14).
That’s a big climb down and the union certainly played its cards well. In the other hand, NEM
clearly wanted this dispute closed and covered before the EGM came around.
Wesdome Gold (WDO.to) (WDOFF): Along with other producers, WDO should give us its
3q23 production NR in the week ahead and while we’re not expecting fireworks this year, it will
be worth watching the wires for any updates on the deep levels development at Kiena. As for
production, so far this year WDO has delivered almost exactly at the median of its annual
guidance of 110k-130k oz Au and we expect that to continue, with around 30,000 total
expected from its two mines.
WDO: Gold prod/qtr
23
69312
63892
12632 76242 43391 65771 50471 20552 95102 54822 00022
9614
5511 5112 8914 7877 8147 8000 8000
5208
92961
00022
45000
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
Ozt Au Kiena
Mishi
Eagle River
source: WDO filings
I’m not expecting this NR to move the market, but you never know in this game and there’s
always the potential for a surprise, be it positive or negative.
The TinyCaps List
After 40 weeks of 2023, the TinyCaps show a gain of 19.06% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Aurelius Min AUL.v 0.07 49.787 1.00 0.02 -71.4%
Coast Copper COCO.v 0.045 64.001 3.20 0.05 11.1%
District Metals DMX.v 0.075 86.891 17.81 0.205 173.3%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.13 69.962 6.65 0.095 -26.9%
Manitou Gold MTU.v 0.02 344.568 18.95 0.055 175.0%
Nine Mile Metals NINE.cse 0.29 57.025 3.99 0.07 -75.9%
Palamina Corp PA.v 0.08 65.285 7.83 0.12 50.0%
Precipitate Gold PRG.v 0.075 130.367 7.17 0.055 -26.7%
South Star STS.v 0.55 40.129 21.27 0.53 -3.6%
Viva Gold VAU.v 0.14 106.721 12.81 0.12 -14.3%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 19.06%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $20m. They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a
little and allowed sub-U$20m market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, but it was a particularly depressing exercise to trawl through the whole of the TSXV and find companies
that are small enough, but with life in them. The vast majority of sub-$20m stocks are broken stocks, either
traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2023. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we

want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
A non-event of a week as this year’s TinyCaps list
TinyCaps, 2023 weekly tracker
limps toward the finishing line, in real need of 50%
45%
refreshment and renewal. Zero stocks went up, five 40%
35%
stock prices remained unchanged (AUL.v, COCO.v,
30%
MTU.v, NINE.cse, VAU.v) and five were losers 25%
20%
(DMX.v, LMS.v, PA.v, PRG.v, STS.v) but even the
15%
losses were nothing of great consequence, just a 10%
penny or a percentage point lost on thin volumes 5%
0%
and near-complete disinterest.
Viva Gold (VAU.v): Should really have done this
last weekend, as on Monday September 25th VAU filed its 3q23 (to end July’23) and here’s the
but that matters from the financials:
Viva has been drilling and its program is now done, its burn rate is going to drop but even so,
the C$750k left in treasury will only make it through a quarter and a half maximum. That
means VAU is already running close to fumes and will need to finance soon. To its credit, VAU’s
share price has held up better than most tinycaps in 2023 but at some point it will need to fund
and, as the saga of PGZ shows (or Goldshore for another), get your placement strategy wrong
and pay the penalty.
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future
I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
Ecuador: One week to the Presidential vote
Before the polling and prediction, one story tha buried under the juggernaut of news out of the
Middle East this weekend is out of Ecuador and is worthy of your consideration, if only to get a
feel of the level of corruption and institutional failure it implies. The assassination of Presidential
candidate Fernando Villavicencio two weeks before the first round vote rocked the country and
made international headline news, then the news that one of the assassins had been killed in
the ensuing shoot-out and then six others in the gang quickly arrested may have also come up
on your radar. This weekend and while on remand in jail, the six in custody were murdered, all
hanged by the neck and presumably by gang members also in the same jails. Their collective
24
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2yluj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6gua ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3pes ht01 ht71 ht42 ts1tco ht8
source: IKN calcs, TSX data

deaths, all at the same time and in the same prison (after they’d already asked to be
transferred due to the danger they were in) means a lot of information about the political killing
has died with them. I will leave you to consider how six men can be killed in this way at same
time, place and clearly for the same motive.
We move on. This time next weekend we’ll know who the next President of Ecuador will be and
the person who will take over from the mandate of outgoing President Guillermo Lasso, with
the role until 2025. This is the second time we’ve used this visual from this Wikipedia page (15)
and this time it includes the final voter opinion polls, as the week ahead is a campaign and
polling blackout (which supposedly gives the country time to reflect and decide). I’ve changed
the column titles into English and added three red rings, the rest is as-per:
At first sight, it looks as though some pollsters since last weekend’s debate are calling Daniel
Noboa clearly, some are making it a tight race and some are now calling Luisa González to win.
However, those red rings are there to highlight the most trustworthy of those polls, namely
Comunicaliza and Cedatos, which both point to Noboa holding an eight to ten point lead. As for
the others, both NEO Consulta and Omar Maluk are known to be sympathetic to Rafael Correa
and his party and are easily discarded, others on the list have used less reliable polling methods
such as telephone-only or polls that don’t cover all the country. There were no big changes
from last weekend’s debate and the reliable polls still point toward Noboa, so it’s beginning to
look god for him.
Even better when you add in the position apparently now taken by CONAIE. We went through
the possible “kingmaker” role of the indigenous pressure group and its leader, Leonidas Iza, in
IKN749 and IKN750 but in his latest comments, it now seems clear that Iza and his powerful
indigenous group will not take a position toward either of the candidates and remain neutral.
On Friday, in a radio interview on regional radio channel Radio Inti Pacha (aimed at indigenous
communities and CONAIE adherents), Leonidas Iza said that the prospects looked “very
complicated” for this election, neither candidates had offered proposals to help the indigenous
community and that both candidates had fallen back into their own right wing or left wing
ideology. There’s clearly no warming toward the Correa candidate and as his choices were
essentially only to 1) remain neutral or 2) back Luisa González, this is good news for Noboa and
for my money is the last major piece of this puzzle.
The bottom line: There’s a clear trade opportunity in Ecuador exposed stocks in the week
25

ahead. While the final result is unlikely to be as wide as 10 points and Luisa has run a decent
campaign, she hasn’t managed to break the clear “anti-vote” bloc in Ecuador that has around
60% of the total population saying they’d never vote for Correa any dauphin(e) again. Noboa is
therefore hot favourite to win and while that’s going to be bad for the country in the medium-
term (policy-wise, he’ll be very similar to the highly unpopular outgoing Lasso), Noboa will get
his honeymoon period and his suite of pro-business, free market policiers will go down well with
outside observers. As such, expect mining stocks exposed to Ecuador to rally as from October
16th (i.e. eight days’ time) and that means you have this week to position accordingly.
Argentina: Quick polling and election update
The three-cornered election set for its round one vote on October 22nd (two weeks’ time) rolls
on and interestingly, the tone has lowered somewhat as the Javier Milei team look to
consolidate his lead and turn him into a more serious character. Meanwhile, most recent polls
still point to a second round run-off between Milei and Sergio Massa and in the event of that
combo in the second round run-off, the same polls give Milei an advantage of between six and
nine points. Therefore it’s fair to say Milei remains a strong favourite to become the next
President but this desk reiterates, this election is not a sure thing and Massa could still come
through and beat the independent frontrunner.
Colombia: The Environment Minister shows her cards
Last week’s “Come into my parlour…” note on Colombia set the scene nicely, this weekend we
can report on the true anti-mining colours now finally showing in the Petro government. In
order to do this justice, I’m going to translate this report (16) from Colombia’s national media
station Bluradio as if I put this into my own words, you may not believe me. Please note that
the project in question is not named, but it’s the Soto Norte project owned by MINESA that has
been JV farmed out to Aris Mining (ARIS.to). This desk has maintained for a long time that
there was zero chance of this project moving forward under a Petro government and what
you’re about to read, comical though it might be, underscores that argument clearly.
The Ministry of the Environment has started conversations with Arab countries in order
that they change the investment they are looking to make in the páramo de Santurbán
and invest in renewable energy in different regions of the country.
The Minister of the Environment, Susana Muhamad, explained that the national
government had started a process of dialogue with Arab countries so that the
investment they were looking to make in large-scale mining in the páramo de
Santurbán be changed into solar or wind power energy projects in different regions in
the country, with the intention of not causing water pollution in the páramo and affect
more than two million people in the metropolitan area of Bucaramanga and the North
Santander region.
“What both President Gustavo Petro and I have ratified this that we do not see large-
scale gold mining in the páramo de Santurbán as convenient and, we are moving
forward the process in order to make a judicial decision regarding the issue, which has
included conversations with the government of the United Arab Emirates, in order to
change this investment into something that is more productive, such as renewable
energy in other parts of the country”, said the Minister of the Environment, Susan
Muhamad.
You read that right: The government wants the UAE to drop Soto Norte and in Exchange, they
will allow MINESA and/or another channel of capital to build the country wind turbines and solar
electric generation banks.
Market Watching
A tale of two Ecuador copper stocks, Solaris (SLS.to), SolGold (SOLG.L) (SOLG.to)
The subject of SolGold (SOLG.to) (SOLG.L) and its weak recent price action needs addressing,
so in order to do that and to give it some necessary perspective, the price action and recent
news from Solaris Resources (SLS.to) provides a good counterpoint and a way in to considering
the wider issues. First let’s note some basics that include:
26

 The fact that I believe Ecuador is about to become a generalized, albeit very
near-term buy on the high likelihood that Daniel Noboa wins the Presidential
election next weekend. We’ve had plenty of coverage on that subject in
recent weeks, including today’s note in Regional Politics, above.
 The similarities between the two companies. Both are explorecos in Ecuador,
both are hunting a large-scale copper porphyry deposit, both work in rural
areas, both are looking to be bought out by the highest bidder, both have
defined flagship properties and second-strings to consider later, or as part of
the entire package.
However, there are also differences between the two stories. In the case of SolGold, its main
Cascabel project is more advanced and has economics
studies available, as well as two very large strategic
backers in the shape of BHP and Newcrest that would
have their own technical teams on the ground to
provide them with the type of internal metrics they’d
want to know in order to make a decision. SolGold
these days is also minority Chinese owned and is
currently under an extended strategic review period,
that has as its remit several strategic options but
there’s not doubt that its main objective is to market
and sell the company, most likely to Chinese capitals.
This three year chart (right) of the main London listing
shows that SOLG sold off in mid to late 2022 and has
been trading either cheaply or very cheaply ever since.
In the case of Solaris (SLS.to), the Warintza project is big, has high grade and impressive size.
It’s surely destined to be one of the biggest porphyry copper resources in the world (and not
just for the undeveloped stage) and while it is behind
SolGold at Cascabel in development, if its location
were anywhere “normal” it would have surely been
sold by now. However and as mentioned on these
pages as well as the open blog on many occasions,
I’m not a fan of this stock and never will be due to its
very difficult community relations problems. Unlike
SolGold which has largely benign relationship with its
local community players (there are always some level
of problems, but nothing out of the ordinary), Solaris
at Warintza is located deep in indigenous jungle
territory where locals are ideologically set against
mining of any type, let alone very large scale open pit
mining that brings the type of environmental effects that are an anathema to generational
communities whose culture is centred around a life in harmony with nature. The same three
year timescale chart for SLS (right) shows how the stock flew high as the drill rigs at Warintza
uncovered a massive and high grading porphyry body, only to drop when the strong resistance
to its development became apparent.
Despite (or because of) this mix of similarities
and differences, these two Ecuador-based
copper explorecos chasing elephants traded
similarly over the last year, as see in this 12
month comparative chart (right). However, the
right hand side of the visual shows the
bifurcation in the last couple of weeks and
that’s the source of much frustration to SOLG
27

owners.
I know that because I have the mails. I also know that because I too am a shareholder of
SOLG. Having bought the stock on its penultimate dip in late February, I thought I was onto a
good thing when it did as predicted and sprang back higher, thanks to a combo of better
copper prices and a new change of directorate level control that pushed the BHP/Newcrest
people to one side and allowed a new C-suite and board bloc to have more of a say in policy.
As a result, the strategic review began and at that time the idea was that SOLG would likely sell
in the near-ish future to the highest bidder, probably Chinese money.
Or that was the plan. In the words of Robert Bruce, the best laid schemes o’ mice an’ men gang
aft agley an’ lea’e us nought but grief an’ pain for promis’d joy. As things have turned out the
SOLG strategic review has become some kind of infinite loop and in the meantime, the
resignation of President Lasso and the ensuing election campaign that is due to culminate next
weekend threw a shadow over Ecuador as a destination for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)
and seems to have stymied any quick deal on Cascabel (again, likely to the Chinese). We heard
as much two weeks ago when SOLG hosted a webinar (17) to talk its audience through its year-
end financials, but the overriding message taken from CEO Scott Caldwell’s presentation was
that the review continued and would go on as long as necessary. Hardly a feeling of urgency
and since then the stock has sold off.
On the other hand, Solaris in recent days has put in a bit of a spurt and rebounded thanks
largely to its own newsflow, this NR (18) dated last Tuesday that starts this way:
VANCOUVER, British Columbia, Oct. 03, 2023 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Solaris
Resources Inc. (TSX: SLS; OTCQB: SLSSF) (“Solaris” or the “Company”) announces
the appointment of China International Capital Corporation Limited (“CICC”) as the
Company’s Chinese financial advisor.
It’s slightly funny to think that SLS is trying to offer the message that a push into China is a
novel idea, as we can be sure they’ve been trying hard to vend the project to Chinese capitals
for a long period of time. However, the appointment of an official third party is news and was
enough to send the stock higher on speculation that “SLS is about to sell”.
Meanwhile, SOLG has been going in the other direction and as that 12-month comparative chart
shows, it’s unusual to see one of these companies going North at the same time as the other
goes South. This ten-day example show the most
recent action and that split (right) and in the case
of SOLG, the impression of a lack of forward
movement on M&A and finding a buyer has been
compounded by the doubts and nerves arising
from the election. There is also a potential third
(or even fourth) influence that’s causing the sharp
sell-off, as we know 1) Newmont is in the process
of buying Newcrest, 2) to date Newcrest is a large
percentage holder of SOLF shares and 3) NEM as
a company is (in)famously leery of more exotic
political risk locations. Put those together and the
conjecture of a SOLG that’s either being sold down
by NCM, or is about to be sold down by NEM, or is
being sold down by the market trying to front run a big block sale of SOLG shares out of NEM.
There’s also that fourth possibility as, in the period just before I personally bought my SOLG
position, there had been some very obvious short selling patterns being run on the company,
most likely by either big holder BHP or big holder Newcrest or even a combo of both of them,
as part of their strategy to keep hold of executive control of the board and its policy. We may
well be seeing a return of strategic shorting by one of those big entities, with a view to
controlling the stock and keeping it unattractive as a potential target for anyone else. It’s
certainly notable to see this most recent weakness in the days before the election, a moment of
28

max nerves for outsiders looking in on Ecuador.
Discussion and conclusion: Our subject in this thinkpiece is more our holding in SolGold than its
counterpoint stock Solaris, but before we get to the point let’s round off on SLS. I still don’t like
the stock as a longer-term investment and will be surprised if it finds a buyer at this point,
Chinese or not, because its CSR issues on the ground in Ecuador are very difficult and even
Chinese capitals will know by now that it’s a difficult call to push through a mine where locals
don’t want one. It may well be a speculative purchase at present, what with the implied “pssst
psst Chinese are buying” message and the resolution to the Election about to happen. Daniel
Noboa is the profile that casual observers of a country like Ecuador want to see, young and
right wing with free market, pro-business credentials and his win should bring a mini
honeymoon period for Ecuador exposed issues of all types. However, he’s cut from the same
cloth as the outgoing Lasso and it won’t take long before the clashes with indigenous locals and
their political representative (e.g. CONAIE) begin again. There’s two years of mandate, as well.
As for our main focus, Solgold (SOLG) been a painful stock to hold for a few months and that
pain has become acute in the last few weeks as the price has been beaten down, but the plan
is to give things a few more weeks. Reasons:
 The election is upon us and once done, SOLG should enjoy the same kind of bounce.
 We may be seeing opportunistic shorting in these days leading up to the vote. That can
unwind quickly once it’s done.
 Once the NEM/NCM deal is finalized as from next week, we’ll have clarity on what will
happen to the NCM bloc of SOLG shares.
 The sales process may have had to wait until the election is done before getting a real
offer
 There’s no rush at this price anyway
For those reasons, I’m willing to give this SOLG trade a little more rope and allow it the space
to rebound in the post-election period, if it has the legs. In general terms I’m going to give it
until the end of the year and if its’ still under-performing, then it will be time for the chop but in
all fairness the snap election in Ecuador wasn’t an easy thing to predict and once it came, it
froze investment activity of all types in the country. The Chinese capitals may equally as
nervous to see who wins next Sunday and whether they can deal with them. We might also be
witnessing a speculative short attack at present, the type that covers and packs itself away
once the election is done.
I’ll revisit SOLG in a couple of weeks’ time, at which point we’ll take a close look at its financial
position. For the time being the strategy play is more important.
Conclusion
IKN751 is done, we end with some bullet points:
 All eyes on gold, as I’m looking for resilience in the face of negative macro winds
 The election in Ecuador is a clear trade opportunity. Expect Noboa to win, expect
Ecuador issues to rally as a result.
 Copper is the main concern. I’ve trimmed sails somewhat, but there’s still plenty of
exposure to the metal in my portfolio.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stock is Minera Alamos (MAI.v). Flash
updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best wishes, Mark
29

Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/10/schedule-for-week-of-october-8-2023.html
(2) https://fortunasilver.com/investors/news/seguela-drives-fortuna-to-record-gold-equivalent-production-of-128-671-
ounces-in-the-third-quarter-2023/
(3) https://mineraalamos.com/news/2023/minera-alamos-announces-maiden-resource-estimate-for-the-santana-gold-
project-sonora-mexico/
(4) https://newcoregold.com/news/newcore-gold-announces-91.7-gold-recoveries-in-column-testwork-for-the-sewum-
and-boin-deposits-at-the-enchi-gold-project-ghana/
(5) https://aldebaranresources.com/news-releases/2023/aldebaran-intercepts-649.40-m-of-0.54-cueq-including-354.00-
m-of-0.72-cueq-at-the-altar-copper-gold-project/
(6) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mn4d9PHidpM&list=PLtaY2C7EDECt7R-hYYU1ArJyN7mcG2Xc2
(7) https://surgecopper.com/news-releases/surge-copper-intersects-756-metres-grading-0.36-cueq-including-90-metres-
grading-0.46-cueq-at-the-berg-deposit/
(8) https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/copper-set-for-steepest-weekly-decline-in-almost-11-months/
(9) https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/copper-heads-for-the-lme-week-with-steep-weekly-decline/
(10) https://icsg.org/press-releases/#
(11) https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/copper-study-group-expects-big-supply-surplus-2024-2023-10-06/
(12) https://www.panglobalresources.com/news/pan-global-announces-non-brokered-private-placement
(13) https://qccopper.com/news/qc-copper-acquires-9.75-interest-in-ontarios-largest-copper-resource-thierry-copper-
mine/
(14) https://mineriaenlinea.com/2023/10/minera-penasquito-y-sindicato-minero-resuelven-huelga-con-nuevo-acuerdo-
laboral-en-mexico/
(15)
https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anexo:Sondeos_de_intenci%C3%B3n_de_voto_para_las_elecciones_presidenciales_de_E
cuador_de_2023
(16) https://www.bluradio.com/blu360/santanderes/minambiente-busca-que-emiratos-arabes-cambie-mineria-en-
santurban-por-energia-renovable-rg10
(17) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sOgCHGLqDTc
(18) https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2023/10/03/2753482/0/en/Solaris-Appoints-CICC-as-Chinese-
Financial-Advisor.html
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2022
Closed in 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
Goldshore Res GSHR.v Nov'22 C$0.18 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 88.9% Quick profit taken
Palamina Corp PA.v Dec'22 C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.08 -72.9% Clear-out of underperformer
Pure Gold PGM.h Dec'22 C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.015 -89.3% tiny trade on vh risk, went Ch11
30

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Set-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
31

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
32

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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