6 The IKN Weekly, issue 750 — Oct 02, 2023
The IKN Weekly
Week 750, October 1st 2023
Contents
This Week: In Today’s Edition, US BLS Jobs, Gold better placed than copper.
Fundamental Analysis: Five sales.
Stocks to Follow: QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v), Faraday Copper (FDY.to), AbraSilver
(ABRA.v), Orecap Inv (OCI.v), Amerigo Resources (ARG.to), Provenance Gold (PAU.cse), Minera
Alamos (MAI.v), Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v), Equinox Gold (EQX), Contango ORE (CTGO).
The Copper Basket: Overview, Q3 review, Solaris Resources (SLS.to): Hot Chili (HCH.v)
(HCH.ax).
Producer Basket: Overview, Q3 review, Eldorado Gold (EGO) (ELD.to).
The TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Nine Mile Metals (NINE.cse), Palamina Corp (PA.v).
Regional Politics: Argentina: Milei vs Massa run-off now in the cards, Argentina: The
upcoming pro-mining marketing campaign, Colombia: Come into my parlour…, Peru: Two
takeaways from Perumin, Nicaragua: Daniel’s Gold.
Market Watching: Provenance Gold (PAU.cse) on the Watch List, Pan Global Resources
(PGZ.v): One quick chart and done for now.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
Trade heads-up
I’m selling the positions as mooted in last week’s edition, i.e. selling out of QC Copper & Gold
(QCCU.v), Faraday Copper (FDY.to), AbraSilver (ABRA.v), Orecap Inv (OCI.v) and making
another partial sale of the main copper trade, Amerigo Resources (ARG.to). I wish it weren’t so,
but reality and portfolio management prevails.
In Today’s Edition
The main job today is done as swiftly and succinctly as possible.
Today is also the quarter-end review of other segments, so please see Copper Basket
and Producer Basket for the standard snapshot chart and thoughts on the winners and
sinners of 3q23.
The elections in Argentina and Ecuador are beginning to show some resolution and in
just two weeks’ time, we’ll know the winner of the latter. As for Argentina’s round one
on October 22nd, it’s looking like the government’s Sergio Massa will make the coveted
second spot and a place in the run-off against Javier Milei.
The other piece of note this weekend are also in the politics section, with Colombia’s
mining sector still waiting for the hammer to fall and Peru trying to make itself
appealing to the world again.
US BLS Jobs
It’s the most important macro dataset of the monthly cycle, but even the Bureau of Labor
Statistics Employment Situation Summary Report won’t move the market in the same way every
month. However, the one coming up this Friday (which shouldn’t be delayed, now US Congress
1
has reached a debt ceiling deal) is one of the more keenly anticipated of recent months.
According to Calculated Risk (1), current market
forecast consensus is for +150k NFP jobs added
and the headline rate to drop one tenth, to 3.7%.
Which is fair enough, but the market will be wary of
any blow-out number above 150k as it would add
fuel to the current “higher for longer” narrative
being used by the Fed to dampen the market. So
it’s set for one of those weird weeks in which the
US stock market will rise if the US economic data is
bad, and vice-versa. Such is the way. This chart
(right) stolen from Calculated Risk is a basic tracker
of the jobs created per month and the trend line
shows the obvious tendency, therefore it stands to
reason that if there are fewer jobs than expected
created and unemployment starts showing signs of
rising instead of staying at these (historically low) sub-4% levels, the Fed is more likely to cut
sooner.
Gold better placed than copper
Today’s main fundamentals section isn’t very long, but it’s dedicated to some script no each of
the sales I plan to make in the days to come. The plan is to cut market exposure and raise cash
in order to better navigate what might turn out to be
a rough Q4 but the one part of the portfolio that
won’t change (much) is exposure to gold.
That is of course despite, not because of, the recent
market action in gold. Last week saw spot drop to
under U$1,900/oz and while that’s not the first time
in 2023, it is the first time for six months and the
confident predictions of U$2k+ prices from market
participants, your author very much included, look a
distance away this weekend.
And gold remains wholly unpopular in the market
too, with GLD sales continuing and its physical stocks plumbing new depths. Friday saw
873.64mt in GLD vaults and that’s the lowest weekly close since August 2019, before Covid was
even a word and when most people naturally assumed Trump would be re-elected. However, as
the inventorty/price ratio shows, Wall St has been surprised by the resilience of the gold price
to date and that’s because it’s found large wholesale buyers to prop up the price. We know
them as Central Banks and as there’s a wealth of material out there in the wonderful world of
internet, including sites dedicated to following only Central Bank purchases (as well as plenty of
others ready to explain why, often starting with a evidence-free hunch and a political position),
that’s not going to be a big thing here. We’ll just point out the basics, gleaned from a handful of
sources (2) (3) (4), that according to the World Gold Council:
Central Bank gold purchases totalled 1,136mt in 2022
That buying continued in the first half of 2023, with another 387mt net added to
Central Bank holdings across the world
Recent figures show the trend continues, with WGC saying another 55mt was added
in July and the first reported large Central Bank, China, saying it added another
28.9mt in August
It’s not a perfect balance of course, but there has been a transfer of gold ownership away from
the dollar-centric capital markets and into the world’s Central Bank systems, with most of those
purchases driven by country desire to move away from dollar dependency and the influence of
The USA. The poster child of this is the BRICS group of course, but it’s a motif seen in several
other places. Indeed, in countries such as Turkey, that recently went through a difficult
2
economic patch, the ability to raise funds quickly via large scale dollar scales was part of its
strategy to stay afloat and it’s no coincidence that its gold reserves grew in 2022, then dropped
sharply and are now growing again. There is a new and sustained demand to help counter Wall
St’s disdain for gold at present. However, we cannot say the same for the industrial metals and
if as now seems likely, the world goes into a recession period, the base metals will suffer the
way they always do. Conversely, gold will do its normal job as a hedge against recession and
while that doesn’t mean it gets to hold all its value (see last week), it’s still a valid defensive
position and will spring first and fast as soon as the Fed starts cutting rates, be that late 2024
or not. So long story short, with indicators now telling us that recession of some shape or form
is on the way and a China that hasn’t grown as much as expected this year, it’s time to do
something about the portfolio position to metals.
GLD gold holdings, 2020 to date (metric tonnes)
1400 1350
1300
1250
1200
1150
1100
1050
1000
950
900
850
800
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Five sales
This shouldn’t came as a great surprise. After last week’s intro note “Seriously considering
several sales” and then the way the market continued to go South last week (the Friday relief
rally notwithstanding), there’s now too much evidence that the metals and miners are going to
have a rough Q4 and as such, it’s time to re-balance the portfolio. This won’t be a full-scale
panic sale, we’re trimming sails rather than exiting the market, but as we are most concerned
about the state of the copper market near-term that’s where the focus lays. Also, please note
that some of these stocks are thinly traded and it may take me days, even a couple of weeks,
to exit the positions. I won’t be in any rush and I’m also aware that a sell call such as this can
become a self-fulfilling prophecy, so there really isn’t any need to sell into the first price offered
by a sticky and greedy market. However, I do plan to make the five sales posited last weekend
and they are:
QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v): The fact that QCCU last week informed the market that it
wasn’t going to make its third self-imposed deadline and deliver its MRE on Opemiska by the
end of 3q23 wasn’t a surprise after waiting this long, but it does help make this call. If
copper turns and QCCU can show strong economics for Opemiska I won’t have an issue in
returning to the trade, but for the moment it’s culled in order to reduce my exposure to
copper. One missed deadline too many and with the market the way it is, we have to be
honest and say that even the MRE if delivered tomorrow morning is unlikely to move the
stock upward at present.
Faraday Copper (FDY.to): This was the toughest call of the four complete sales, as FDY
has delivered on everything it has promised and the Copper Creek project in Arizona looks
prospective as stands, ripe for more resource growth and will surely offer a economically
robust copper project in a prized jurisdiction at the right time for the metal, further down the
3
02/1/2 02/3/2 02/5/1 02/6/03 02/8/92 02/01/82 02/21/72 12/2/52 12/4/62 12/6/52 12/8/42 12/01/32 12/21/22 22/2/02 22/4/12 22/6/02 22/8/91 22/01/81 22/21/71 32/2/51 32/4/61 32/6/51 32/8/41
mt 7.40 GLD: Inventory/Price Ratio, 2020 to date
source: SPDR GLD data 7.20 7.00
6.80
6.60
6.40
6.20
6.00
5.80
5.60
5.40
5.20
5.00
4.80
4.60
02/1/2 02/3/2 02/5/1 02/6/03 02/8/92 02/01/82 02/21/72 12/2/52 12/4/62 12/6/52 12/8/42 12/01/32 12/21/22 22/2/02 22/4/12 22/6/02 22/8/91 22/01/81 22/21/71 32/2/51 32/4/61 32/6/51 32/8/41
Source: SPDR data, IKN calcs
line. However, this is as much about portfolio management as personal preferences on the
type of company I like to sponsor and the reasons to sell include the way we expect copper
to weaken in Q4. I won enough FDY to make a meaningful difference to the port’s cash
position and I want to build that cushion. However and unlike other sales calls this weekend,
FDY will not leave the table and instead, merely shift to the Watch List to take its place next
to that other interesting copper development play, Marimaca (MARI.to).
AbraSilver (ABRA.v): This was the easiest to drop. I’m just not cut out for the
evangelization of a silver exploreco, no matter how good its project or successful its recent
exploration campaign.
Orecap Inv (OCI.v): It’s a tiny trade, it uses up a line of the table more than subtracts
from any real portfolio liquidity, but this week is all about being strict with oneself and doing
some hard-nosed portfolio management. Being the same management team as QCCU
helped make the decision to sell, too.
Partial sale of Amerigo Resources (ARG.to): It’s the second time I’ve played this card
on what is still a big position in my overall portfolio. The previous partial sale dropped the
holding down from “almost not quite Top Pick” levels to merely overweight, this time the
plan is to sell maybe 10% or 15% and get it down to what I consider to be a “normal”
weighting for the position next to other holdings. More on the reasoning above in today’s
main fundies section.
As this is less about the companies and their attributes and more about the macro market,
there’s no need to go into a long-winded explanation. Keeping it simple today and by this time
next weekend, personally sold or not, these stocks will not be on the open trades of the Stocks
to Follow.
Stocks to Follow
This week, I’m going to be the annoying newsletter shill with rose-tinted specs who insists that
It could have been a lot worse”. In a week that saw PM stocks drop off another cliff and copper
stocks, especially the juniors, see sector-wide liquidation as Q3 drew to a close, the way in
which the Stocks to Follow selections managed to defend their For sure the paltry headcount of
just two week-over-week winners (FDY.to, LBC.v), four unchanged stocks (NCAU.v, MIRL.cse,
SURG.v, RUG.v) and fourteen losers is nothing to write home about, but most of those losers
were small dips of 1c or 2c, all inside recent trading ranges. The only big percentage hits came
from Ore Group stocks Orecap (OCI.v down 16.7%) and QC Copper (QCCU.v down 12.5%) and
while 14 downer is worse than 14 winners and I’m poorer on paper than this time last week, it
hurt more to write IKN749’s intro than today’s.
We currently have 20 open positions on the list, that’s about to change to 18 as four stocks will
leave the open positions sections and two will join the Watch List. Just four are in the green
and that’s not good.
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company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.29 45.2% $0.75 first tgt, #1 idea
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Amerigo Res ARG.to hold/partsell C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.27 -5.1% partial sale to raise cash
SolGold SOLG.to BUY C$0.265 19-Feb-23 C$0.21 -17.0% Cu in Ecuador, M&A tgt
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v SELLING C$0.265 25-Apr-21 C$0.125 -45.2% raising cash
Equinox Gold EQX BUY U$4.46 30-May-23 U$4.23 -0.5% Au leverage trade, painful week
Fortuna Silver FSM BUY U$2.92 13-Aug-23 U$2.72 -2.4% New trade, want quick flip
Faraday Copper FDY.to SELLING C$0.79 26-Mar-23 C$0.70 -13.9% raising cash
Contango Ore CTGO BUY U$18.70 30-Jul-23 U$18.14 0.1% new purchase IKN741
AbraSilver Res. ABRA.v SELLING C$0.36 4-Dec-22 C$0.30 -15.3% raising cash
Newcore Gold NCAU.v SPEC BUY C$0.205 23-Oct-22 C$0.12 -41.5% Financing closed, bottom in
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v BUY C$0.83 22-Apr-18 C$0.22 -72.9% Cheap on permit probs, appeal
SPECULATIVE TRADES
Orecap inv OCI.v SELLING C$0.04 20-Nov-22 C$0.03 -12.5% raising cash
Western Explor. WEX.v SPEC BUY C$1.87 9-Apr-23 C$0.89 -51.9% Au spec in USA, started badly
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v SPEC BUY C$0.72 16-May-21 C$0.85 19.4% now in drill assay season
Minera IRL MIRL.cse avoid C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.015 -92.3% run into ground byCEO, AVOID
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
Marimaca Copper MARI.to WATCH C$3.65 26-May-23 C$4.00 11.0% Likely buy, want cheap entry
Surge Copper SURG.v WATCH C$0.11 18-Jun-23 C$0.095 -13.6% tinycap Cu in BC Canada
Libero Copper LBC.v WATCH C$0.065 2-Jul-23 C$0.045 -38.5% Watching for Arg drill permit
Rugby Resources RUG.v WATCH C$0.06 26-Mar-23 C$0.04 -33.3% tinycap Cu in Colombia
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.63 6-Dec-20 C$0.37 -36.5% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2023 date closed close price
Altiplano Metals APN.v jan'23 C$0.31 17-Sep-21 C$0.17 -45.2% delayed and will dilute soon
Western Copper WRN.to mar'23 C$2.02 13-Nov-22 C$2.32 14.9% sold on reduced M&A prob.
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v may'23 C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$1.75 -43.0% Closing on legal action news
Amerigo Res ARG.to may'23 C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.48 8.8% sold 20% to raise cash
2015 to 2022 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on a few of our covered companies, starting with a quick line on the changes to
the table by this time next weekend:
QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v): SELLING. A brief line to confirm the plan as seen above.
Faraday Copper (FDY.to): SELLING. A brief line to confirm the plan as seen above.
AbraSilver (ABRA.v): SELLING. A brief line to confirm the plan as seen above.
Orecap Inv (OCI.v): SELLING: A brief line to confirm the plan as seen above.
Amerigo Resources (ARG.to): PARTIAL SALE. A brief line to confirm the plan as seen
above.
Provenance Gold (PAU.cse): ADDING TO WATCH LIST. As seen in today’s Market
Watching section, this small but interesting gold exploreco has complied with all the
stipulations and milestones we desired of it when first opening soft coverage on the stock back
in IKN740 dated July 23rd 2023 and the main fundies note “Provenance Gold (PAU.cse):
Ignored and Interesting”. Therefore, the timing may be poor what with a bunch of stocks
5
getting sold away, but fair is as fair does and PAU makes the Watch List as from next weekend.
No active position or personal shares held yet of course, but as noted below it’s being followed
closely for a good reason.
Minera Alamos (MAI.v): It’s disappointing not to have any news on the Cerro de Oro debt
financing out in the official realm, though we understand that the delays are not due to
fundamental issues and are legal beagle paperwork. Meanwhile the stock managed to drop the
modest gains it made the week before last, but keeps inside its recent (though rather low)
trading range.
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v): Another stock suffering from The Roaring Silence, the jungledrums have
gone quiet on the pending Comite de Ministros appeals hearing over the Fenix EIA. The last
unofficial rumblings came early last month and signs were that the hearing would happen
before the end of Q3, that obviously didn’t happen and what’s more, your author’s recent
discrete inquiries have also been fruitless. In so many words, nobody seems to know when this
now highly delayed case will get its hearing. It’s possible to try to second-guess the reasons
behind that and while its fairly obviously some sort of political motive (the technical data is in
and fully understood by all sides), going further than that and trying to reason that the delay is
good/bad for RIO.v’s prospects would be conjecture at best, pure guessing more likely. The
only things we know for certain is that there’ s no real reason for the delay on the facts of the
case and that Chile’s government must give the company ten days’ notice before the meeting
happens. I wish I had more for you (and myself, it’s highly frustrating to be left waiting for no
real reason) but I don’t.
Equinox Gold (EQX): It was still a mess and down 21c (4.7%) from this time last weekend
but as this five-day chart of EQX vs GDX shows, it did better than the sector median and the
way it rebounded on Thursday in the first rank as the metals sales came to an end was
encouraging; it’s one of the main reasons why we chose EQX as our leveraged play on gold in
the first place.
EQX doesn’t normally pre-announce its quarterly production figures so we’ll have to wait until
November for those, the same day it files its 3q23 financials. Between now and then we should
get an update on Greenstone, however. Word from the Sandstorm (SAND) NR last week has its
development at 90% complete.
Contango ORE (CTGO): Down a modest 3.0%
since IKN749, that modest week-over-week drop
hides a downspike intraday Friday that dragged
the price to under U$18 again:
It doesn’t take much, a reminder that even with
the better volume running through CTGO these
days, the bid/ask is still rather sticky and if
there’s a seller determined to liquidate even a
moderately-seized holding in a hurry, bids can
6
quickly collapse. Bargain hunters looking to build a position in this strong value stock might
want to keep that in mind, as overall I’m happy about my own cost average of U$18.70 so if
you can get in for dollar lower than me, I’d be a little jealous.
The Copper Basket
After thirty-nine weeks of 2023, The Copper Basket shows a loss of 13.03% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Solaris Res SLS.to 6.44 146.599 771.11 5.26 -18.3%
2 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.22 92.882 371.53 4.00 24.2%
3 Western Copper WRN.to 2.41 151.597 281.97 1.86 -22.8%
4 Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to 1.92 105.96 166.36 1.57 -18.2%
5 Oroco Res OCO.v 0.91 216.13 151.29 0.70 -23.1%
6 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.78 175.554 149.22 0.85 9.0%
7 Hot Chili HCH.v 0.78 119.455 124.23 1.04 33.3%
8 Faraday Copper FDY.to 0.54 175.2 122.64 0.70 29.6%
9 Regulus Res. REG.v 1.10 124.509 99.61 0.80 -27.3%
10 Pan Global Res PGZ.v 0.46 212.395 43.54 0.205 -55.4%
11 Kodiak Copper KDK.v 1.12 56.2 35.41 0.63 -43.8%
12 QC Copper QCCU.v 0.165 162.815 20.35 0.125 -24.2%
13 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.16 106.25 15.94 0.15 -6.3%
14 Libero Copper LBC.v 0.155 119.58 5.38 0.045 -71.0%
15 Atacama Copper ACOP.v 0.16 35.94 6.83 0.19 18.8%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg -13.03%
Another 1.8% drop for the basket average, The Copper Basket 2023, weekly evolution
16%
another new 2023 low and another week of 12%
mediocrity for the copper exploreco subsector. 8%
Five stocks returned week-over-week (WoW) 4%
gains (SLS.to, FDY.to, KDK.v, LBC.v) and of those, 0%
the biggest percentage move came from Libero -4%
Copper (LBC.v up 12.5%), which looks impressive -8%
-12%
until you realize it was half a penny from 4c to
-16%
4.5c and the stock is still 71% down for the year.
There are none in the UNCH column this week,
which means eleven losers and they include the
biggest percentage drops in QC Copper (QCCU.v
down 13.8%) and Pan Global Resources (PGZ.v down 12.8%) and Hot Chili (HCH.v down
8.8%). As the tracking chart (right) shows, the selling has accelerated into the end of Q3 and
we take a closer look at the comparative damage in our quarterly snapshot segment, below.
The bearish sentiment was again driven by copper price weakness (no big surprise I’m sure)
and for this week’s illustrative chart of
the near-dated futures contract, we go
with the 10-day time lapse to show the
most recent fluctuations. Come
Wednesday evening I truly feared the
worst and wondered what prices I’d get
for the list of sales (see above) because
by that time, my mind had already been
made up. The relief rally Thursday and
Friday was therefore….well, it was a
relief and means we may even get a
follow-though in the next five days as I
7
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2yluj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6gua ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3pes ht01 ht71 ht42 ts1tco
source: IKN calcs
liquidate a few positions. Summing up, despite it being a rotten week for the copper mining
sub-sector, the metal somehow managed to finish up from last weekend and juuust about hold
the U$3.70/lb line. However, there was enough noise and bearish display to trigger my decision
and batten down a few hatches as Q4 kicks off.
It’s the end of the quarter and that means our comparative snapshot chart of our 15 Copper
Basket stocks for 2023, to see how they’ve been getting on. Notes below:
The 2023 Copper Basket after 39 weeks
8
%3.33 %6.92 %2.42
%8.81 %0.9
%3.6-
%2.81- %3.81- %8.22- %1.32- %2.42- %3.72-
%8.34-
%4.55- %0.17-
70%
60%
50% 40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30% -40%
-50%
-60%
-70%
-80%
v.HCH ot.YDF ot.IRAM v.POCA v.EDLA v.UCE ot.UCSA ot.SLS ot.NRW v.OCO v.UCCQ v.GER v.KDK v.ZGP v.CBL
13 wks
26 wks
39 wks
source: TSX, IKN calcs
Little doubt about the winner of the quarter, as Hot Chili (HCH.v) is one of only two stocks that
improved during Q3 and is now the basket leader, up 33%. I’ve added a couple of extra
thoughts on its recent trading below in the company notes, but the move was all about the
delivery of its PEA for Costa Fuego at the very end of June and the resulting momentum that
created. I have to admit, they did it well and from watching on the sidelines, it gave me a view
of how Australian explorecos effectively sell their stories to the market (typically domestic). The
other winner on the quarter was Atacama Copper (ACOP.v) and we’ve picked over that move
recently, which lacks news and volume to take too seriously.
Therefore we had a lot of losers last quarter. Product of the softening copper price, the
exploreco sub-sector had a hard time and we now have just five stocks in positive territory and
they include Element 29 (ECU.v), which had its own version of the financing blues and was
beaten down by a market that saw treasury weakness on the horizon. However, ECU.v and
others in the mid-table (as far down as Regulus on the list) are far from dead. The big drop in
Pan Global (PGZ.v) has attracted my attention recently and the drop to -55% on the year shows
once again how important the financing side of the game is these days. Tail End Charlie is
Libero (LBC.v), a stock on our Watch list but for a very specific reason and the fact it hasn’t
delivered the Esperanza permit is the reason why it’s now 71% down on the year. It’s also out
of cash, so there’s a clear theme developing and the tight market for financings is now a major
factor in equity performances, so check that cash position before placing a bet.
That’s enough Q3 review, we now move to our carefully curated macro commentary of the
week, we again lean on your author’s main base metals mancrush, Andy Home of Reuters, who
published “China's strong metal imports not as bullish as they seem” on Tuesday morning (5).
The note covers a range of metals, including commentary on the alu, zinc, lead etc import
market into the biggest customer country of them all. As wise as they are, please see the whole
note for those words as we’re only offering his comments on copper:
Refined copper imports were 340,000 metric tons in August, the highest monthly tally
this year.
However, cumulative imports of 2.29 million metric tons are still down by 8% on last
year and net imports are down by 10% due to slightly higher exports in 2023 relative to
2022.
The mini-surge also has much to do with Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).
Imports of copper from DRC have accelerated sharply from 57,000 metric tons in June
to 74,000 in July and an all-time record 97,000 in August.
These are catch-up shipments from China's CMOC Group, which was blocked from
exporting between June last year and April this year during a prolonged stand-off with
the government over taxes.
CMOC, which produced 254,000 metric tons of refined copper last year, began
shipping from its stockpile in June with the metal evidently starting to arrive in China in
July and August.
Imports of copper from DRC have accounted for more than 25% of total inbound
shipments in the last two reported months and have kicked the headline figure higher.
In so many words, Home argues that the headline numbers for copper imports (as well as other
metals imports to china depending on their own idiosyncrasies) make the Chinese economy look
more robust than is actually is. That’s an opinion which dovetails with plenty of other comments
on China at the present time, of course.
So yes, essentially it’s another round of ChinaFears!! and as you’re probably aware by now, The
IKN Weekly has a standard position on that entire subject. Without repeating myself (too much)
and doing it in three lines max, we’ve seen this type of “China Collapsing” talk all the way
through the last decade but the country never seems to satisfy its doomsayers and fall into
economic, stock market or recessionary hell, however loud they shout. However, this desk isn’t
trying to predict the End Of (China….Capitalism…The World), instead it recognizes that China
2023 hasn’t shaped up the way most forecasters predicted and has undoubtedly lagged. That’s
an issue for copper and as Home has offered a logical argument as to why imports can grow in
the last few months while the economy remains sluggish, we should pay heed. Indeed, this
weekend’s Cochilco weekly copper market digest (from where your author gleans the weekly
copper inventory numbers, below) covers the subject (6) and says (translated), “Additionally,
expectation for the world trade balance for refined copper in 2024 now favour a supply surplus
for the metal and therefore, a lower price trend for the red metal is now forecast.” That’s a
chunk of flowery Spanish that boils down to “the copper surplus is now expected to continue
into next year”, so we should plan accordingly. In your author’s case, that means not basing
the portfolio position today on the likely and widely forecast supply deficit of 2026 and beyond.
It the end of the month and we therefore dial up our long-term copper inventory tracking
charts, before getting to the weekly segment and the two novelties of the month of September
2023 are 1) a rebound in inventory copper, particularly tonnages arriving in LME warehouses
and 2) the new dominance enjoyed by LME over the two other official futures systems. Indeed,
with over 73% of all copper stored under LKME roofs it’s the highest percentage of the total
since mid-2013, a full decade ago.
Copper inventories: percentage held per exchange
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
9
21.naJ ram yam luj pes von 31.naJ ram yam luj pes von 41.naj ram yam luj pes von 51.naj ram yam luj pes von 61.naj ram yam luj pes von 71.naj ram yam luj pes von 81
naj
ram yam luj pes von 91
naj
ram yam luj pes von 02
naj
ram yam luj pes von 12
naj
ram yam luj pes von 22
naj
ram yam luj pes von 32naj ram yam luj pes
LME Shanghai Comex source: Cochilco
Key Cu inventory aggregate, 2012 to date
1000000
900000
800000
700000
600000
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
21.naJ ram yam luj pes von 31.naJ ram yam luj pes von 41.naj ram yam luj pes von 51.naj ram yam luj pes von 61.naj ram yam luj pes von 71.naj ram yam luj pes von 81
naj
ram yam luj pes von 91
naj
ram yam luj pes von 02
naj
ram yam luj pes von 12
naj
ram yam luj pes von 22
naj
ram yam luj pes von 32naj ram yam luj pes
Mt Cu
Comex
Shanghai
LME
source: Cochilco
So compare it to previous years and stocks remain tight, that’s taken as read. However and
even when taking into account the way a large swathe of that LME tonnage has gone to the
LME’s New Orleans “Roach Motel” warehouses, there’s an uptick in inventory that’s come at a
time that normally sees drawdowns. However and to complicate the story even further, the last
seven days has a bullish signal to mix in with the recent bearish trend. For that, we turn to our
weekly copper inventory tracker with data, as always, from Cochilco:
For the first time in September, we saw a net decrease to world copper stock levels.
The overall drop was 10,265 metric tonnes (mt), losing more than was added the week
before last, and as you’ll see below it was all about one place. Overall, the total in stock
dropped to 229,808mt and the first down tick since breaking the 200kmt line at the
start of September.
And it was all about the Shanghai SHFE, which lost a big 15,169mt from its already thin
stocks and dropped to 38,996mt. That’s a sharp loss of stocks and puts SHFE back at
the real “scrape bottom of barrel” level and as you’ll see below, it’s the level we went
though at this time last year. SHFE stocks were signalling oversupply in China just four
weeks ago and accumulating in a season that normally sees them drawn down, we’re
back to the normal way of the season between Labor Day and Christmas and that’s
bullish for the metal (normally). What remains to be seen is whether this is as much of
a façade as the refined imports number reported on above.
Stocks ticked up at the LME again, this time up 4,925mt to close the week at
167,825mt. That’s been seized upon by the bears as another reason to dump on copper
and it’s difficult to argue too much, as LME is still The Daddy, where price discovery
happens most. Cancelled warrants remain ultra low and offer another signal for slack
markets, but we should also note that over 2kmt of the new additions went to New
Orleans, where 62,375mt of copper is now stored and due to its location, is likely to
stay away from end users (and especially those in Asia).
The Comex kept its string of weekly draw downs intact, but only by registered a tiny
21mt drop to Friday’s closing inventory of 22,987mt. No biggie.
Same as last week, just one of our two dedicated SHFE tracking charts is enough to tell the
story and, as you can make out with the thinker balck 2023 line, stocks have reverted back to
the lows we last saw at this time of year 2022. The tendency is also clear, but a lot now
depends on when (not if) stocks start to replenish because if it’s December, copper bulls will
have another good reason to remain long and strong. I don’t mind admitting I’m conflicted at
this point and won’t mind being accused of cowardice at the wrong moment, but ultimately I
need to consider my own portfolio and manage it accordingly. Right now, with Q4 just started
and Tax Loss Selling season likely to start earlier than in most years, I prefer to raise some cash
and play it a little safer through October.
SHFE copper inventory levels, 2018 to 2023
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
10
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
MT Cu 2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
source: Cochilco data
Now for notes on a couple of basket stocks:
Hot Chili (HCH.v) (HCH.ax): I wasn’t convinced by the late June PEA delivered by HCH on its
Costa Fuego project in Chile…and that was a mistake. One look at the price chart (we use the
Australian listing) shows how the market reacted favourably to the news catalyst and there was
a fliptrade of 40% or even 50% available to those less cynical than this desk. However and
notably, there has been recent weakness in the stock and we’re now back at the level HCH
moved to on the announcement.
Using U$3.85/lb copper (main payable) and
U$1,750/oz gold (minor by-product kicker) the
post-tax NPV8% of the PEA was U$1.1Bn with an
IRR of 21%. All you need to do now is tell me
where I can borrow money at 8% interest. In
other words, I remain unconvinced and despite
missing out on the recent run, will stick to my
fundies-based call on this stock and just the cost
of water supply to Costa Fuego is enough to
doubt its “optimized” PEA assumptions. Marimaca
(MARI.to) is a higher quality alternative on just
about every metric I can think of and is three
times the market cap of HCH for very good
reasons.
Solaris Resources (SLS.to): As this is one of the
ways to play any “Noboa Bounce”, it’s worth keeping
an eye on the way SLS trades and the rebound it put
in on Wednesday (the day before copper rebounded)
added back just about all the losses it had suffered
compared to the main copper ETF (COPX) during the
first three weeks of September. It may have been a bit
of Q3 tape-painting in play as well, what with this
being a stalwart position in the Richard Warke empire.
The Producer Basket
After 39 weeks of 2023, the Producer Basket shows a loss of 7.04% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 47.20 799 29.52 36.95 -21.7%
2 Barrick GOLD 17.18 1761.54 25.63 14.55 -15.3%
3 Agnico Eagle AEM 51.99 488.9 22.22 45.45 -12.6%
4 Wheaton PM WPM 39.08 451.963 18.33 40.55 3.8%
5 Kinross Gold KGC 4.09 1256.1 5.73 4.56 11.5%
6 Alamos Gold AGI 10.11 393.1 4.44 11.29 11.7%
7 B2Gold BTG 3.57 1074.567 3.11 2.89 -19.0%
8 Hecla Mining GFI 5.56 610.491 2.39 3.91 -29.7%
9 Eldorado Gold EGO 8.36 185.73 1.65 8.91 6.6%
10 Wesdome Gold WDOFF 5.53 147.526 0.77 5.22 -5.6%
All prices and stock quotes in U$ Port. avg -7.04%
A bad way of ending the quarter and that’s putting it mildly. Gold bullion down 4.0% (GLD
proxy), the miners’ complex down 6.8% (GDX proxy) and there was no escape for our list, with
11
all ten components losing ground on the week and the average doing slightly worse than the
sector benchmark. Least worst was Hecla (HL down 1.8%) but all the others were down at
least 5.8%, with the worst of the bunch Newmont (NEM down 9.2%); so much for my extolling
its relative strength the week before last in IKN749.
And with that, in just two weeks both our list and the GDX have gone from modestly positive
territory to a new 2023 low, worse than the double bottom hit in March. All it took was Jay
Powell whispering “higher for longer” into the ear of Wall St and all things precious liquidated
before quarter end.
On that subject, in the same way as the Copper Basket above we now take our quarter-end
snapshot of the relative performance of our ten charges in the 2023 basket, with notes below:
The 2023 Producer Basket components after 39 weeks
12
%7.11 %5.11
%6.6
%8.3
%6.5-
%6.21-
%3.51-
%0.91-
%7.12-
%7.92-
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
IGA CGK OGE MPW FFODW MEA DLOG GTB MEN LH
The 2023 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
comparative to GDX control
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
source: NYSE, IKN calcs
First observation, the top four remain the top four and the only stocks consistently in the green
for the last six months, so a cheer and a pat on the back for the out-performing Alamos,
Kinross, Eldorado and Wheaton. However, you’ll also note that they’ve all lost ground since end
2q23, in fact the only stock to have added in Q3 was Wheaton (WDOFF) and then, only by a
whisker. There have been some big drops too, headed by Hecla (HL) losing 22.3% in Q3,
B2Gold down 19.0% and Barrick (GOLD), of all stocks, down 13.8%. The 12.1% lost in the
quarter by supposed market leader Newmont (MEM) was also bad, but its decision to buy
Newcrest means a lot of the damage was already done.
A final word goes to Hecla (HL), now the tail-ender of
the bunch after its sell-off on the news that Lucky
Friday will remain compromised until 2024 due to its
underground fire there. HL was down just 1.8% this
week and by some distance the least worst of our ten,
but the overall performance and this two-month chart
shows the issue; it had already taken its beating and
come last week, there wasn’t much left to hit.
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2yluj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6gua ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3pes ht01 ht71 ht42 ts1tco
The 2023 Producer Basket: Percentage difference
between GDX benchmark & basket (negative = IKN ahead)
4.0%
ikn
3.0%
gdx control
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
source: NYSE, IKN calcs ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2yluj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6gua ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3pes ht01 ht71 ht42 ts1tco
source: IKN calcs, NYSE data
Eldorado Gold (EGO) (ELD.to): A small bonus prize as this desk waited for the Ecuador live
TV debate to begin was to be online when EGO dropped its 3q23 production NR (7), doing so
unusually on this Sunday evening. Here’s our updated tracking table on the dataset:
Oz Au Olympias
EGO: gold production breakdown, per qtr
Efemcukuru
160000
Lamaque
140000 Kisladag
11408
1 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 25828 13437 12934 1 2 3 3 7 3 4 0 5 5 15523 15779 16123 1 2 5 1 4 3 3 6 5 2 17561 13866 18696
23298 23473 22631 8996 22793 22473 19928 22644 21170
80000 44168
37369 21057
60000 28835 35643 51354 46917 42454 51349 37884 38745 42691
33377
40000
20000 56816 46172 44016 51040 33136 29779 27973 37741 40307 37160 34180 37485
0
4q20 1q21 2q21 3q21 4q21 1q22 2q22 3q22 4q22 1q23 2q23 3q23
source: company filings
At first sight an improvement, with better numbers from three of its four operating units and
the other, Efemcukuru, coming in-line. But Lamaque was slated to have improved more than it
did and the total to Q3 of 342,010 oz production means EGO will have to produce 132,990 oz
in 4q23 in order to reach the low end of its 2023 guidance or 475k-515k oz Au. However, its
Skouries build-out is reported on time and budget to date in the first year of its construction
path, which is something I suppose. Overall, the market will probably give EGO a pass on these
numbers and wait to see what its costs profile looks like when it files its financials, those are
scheduled for post-close on October 26th.
The TinyCaps List
After 39 weeks of 2023, the TinyCaps show a gain of 22.62% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Aurelius Min AUL.v 0.07 49.787 1.00 0.02 -71.4%
Coast Copper COCO.v 0.045 64.001 3.20 0.05 11.1%
District Metals DMX.v 0.075 86.891 18.68 0.215 186.7%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.13 69.962 7.00 0.10 -23.1%
Manitou Gold MTU.v 0.02 344.568 18.95 0.055 175.0%
Nine Mile Metals NINE.cse 0.29 57.025 3.99 0.07 -75.9%
Palamina Corp PA.v 0.08 65.285 8.16 0.125 62.5%
Precipitate Gold PRG.v 0.075 130.367 7.82 0.06 -20.0%
South Star STS.v 0.55 40.129 22.47 0.56 1.8%
Viva Gold VAU.v 0.14 106.721 12.81 0.12 -14.3%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 22.62%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
Market capitalization of under $20m. They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a
little and allowed sub-U$20m market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, but it was a particularly depressing exercise to trawl through the whole of the TSXV and find companies
that are small enough, but with life in them. The vast majority of sub-$20m stocks are broken stocks, either
traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
13
Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2023. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
Just two stocks up (DMX.v, STS.v) and four stocks TinyCaps, 2023 weekly tracker
50%
down (LMS.v, NINE.cse, PA.v, VAU.v) and the other 45%
four unchanged, but that was enough to add a couple 40%
35%
of tenths to the basket average because all the moves 30%
were on the small side. There’s very little happening at 25%
20%
this end of the market and we won’t be dwelling long 15%
here this weekend. 10%
5%
0%
Nine Mile Metals (NINE.cse): This was the week in
which NINE stopped trying to paint the tape at the
end of the week, stop pretending to be something it
isn’t and closed at its standard weekday trading price,
i.e. seven cents. Possibly due to quarter end and the
desks that normally prop the stock into the weekend
being too busy with other stock closes.
We added this stock to the TinyCaps list at the start of
the year because of its heavy promo in late 2022, so
it’s been worth following it as it reverted to its mean.
An education at low cost and this company won’t
make the 2024 list.
Palamina Corp (PA.v): Mentioned last week and
with no resolution so far, there’s plenty of “will-they/won’t-they-pay” swirling around the
apparent news that Winshear (WINS.v) has reached a deal with Tanzania for compensation. I’m
going to stick with my eddycated guess of a WINS worth 35c once this whole thing is done and
a PA.v that’s under-repped at this level, what with its 18%+ position in its sister company and
the likelihood that this windfall will cover exploration costs at both entities for the indefinite
future.
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future
I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
Argentina: Milei vs Massa run-off now in the cards
The latest survey to hit the wires came on Friday, when CB consultoras published the findings
from its online (Zoom-type) poll taken from 4,072 Argentines from a representative cross
section of society, between September 25th and 28th (i.e, last week), with a margin of error of
+/- 1.5% and a confidence level of 95%. The entire 36 page PDF is available for your perusal
on this link (8) and there’s some interesting
observations on the age, sex and education level
breakdown of voter intentions for each candidate, as
well as a gauge of the hardcore support compared
with the likely vote numbers, but when push comes
to shove the fundamental slide is this one (right).
Long story short:
Javier Milei is consolidating his lead
Sergio Massa is looking good for the key
second spot and a place in the run-off
14
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2yluj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6gua ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3pes ht01 ht71 ht42 ts1tco
source: IKN calcs, TSX data
Patricia Bullrich is seeing her support wither and die
So a run-off between the right wing populist libertarian Milei and the current government’s
“candidate of consensus” Massa is looking increasingly likely. As for what’s left to run in the
campaign, this Sunday evening October 1st sees the first of two live TV debates between all five
candidates, with the second debate next Sunday October 8th. These will be important for all
candidacies and one of then main opportunities for the front three to stake their claims for the
big prize among the undecided and floating voters (of which there are still quite a lot, according
to the polls at least). We may even get some mining news from these debates as there’s a
strong rumour (9) that Sergio Massa, who also happens to be the Minister of Finance and in
charge of plenty of other ministries as part of his remit, is going to announce the “Dólar
Minero”, a program along the lines of the ones already in place for the agro export and
hydrocarbons industries that allows partial access to an Exchange rate at/around the unofficial
rates on the streets of the country. At this moment, the official rate is 350 Pesos to the Dollar
and the “Dolar Blue” street rate is 800 per USD. According to the rumours, mining companies
will be able to exchange up to 25% of their dollars at a rate of 790 and if so, it will make their
operating costs immediately cheaper.
Argentina: The upcoming pro-mining marketing campaign
It’s been one of those open secrets for a while that the mining industry in Argentina will be
looking to capture hearts and minds via a marketing push no matter who becomes next
President, but last week during the ADEPA Assembly (The Association of Argentine Journalists)
media conference in San Juan province, there was the first confirmation of the plans (10). The
conference included a panel meeting entitled “Economic Perspectives for the Argentina That Is
Coming* and being San Juan, it featured mining executives heavily including the head of
Barrick South America (Marcelo Alvarez), the head of Human Resources at Pan American Silver
(Mario Hernández) and the Country Manager for Albemarle (Luciano Berestein).
The panel said it would be “reaching out to the media” in order that mining be better
understood and to transmit the message that mining was important for Argentina’s economy as
well as for the country’s and the world’s plans for sustainability. They also explained that they
wanted Argentina to take a more sympathetic view toward mining and show it was an
important source of exports and foreign currency that would allow the country an alternative to
the all-powerful soybean and grain export sector. After the panel meeting, the Argentina
Chamber of Mining (CAEM) confirmed its planned pro-mining push (translated) “…Will be the
biggest we have seen to date, and would run at a national level.”
Colombia: Come into my parlour…
…said the spider to the fly. The rumours around the mining reform bill continue to swirl in
Colombia, with the latest being that the executive will present the law project to Congress “in
the next two weeks”. We also have strong rumours of the main themes in the reform package
with an emphasis on the small and artisan mining sector, rather than favouring large-scale
mining (one of the Petro beefs) as well as "modernizing mining" and "better care for the
environment", whatever those catch-all terms might mean. However, as of this week we also
know that big mining has been invited to the negotiation table because that was the message
of the new Minister of Energy and Mining, Andrés Camacho, who appeared at the country’s
annual Nation Mining Congress (Congreso Nacional de Minería) in order to (11)…
“…invited the private sector the form a national agreement around the country’s mining
sector and the reforms that the national government propose.” In his words during a
press conference dedicated to the subject last week, he said (translated), “Today I am
here to put myself at the disposition of the (mining) sector, but also to invite it to build
the mining sector of the future together, mining for life.” Noble words for sure, he then
continued with, “We do not want or are looking for a prohibitionist policy. We want to
build along with you a balanced and fair mining industry. I have come to propose that
we advance the sector in a national agreement based on the fundamentals for mining.
You can count on me for a mining law that we can all help to build.”
That’s the Colombian version of “Hi, I’m from the government and I’m here to help you”.
Consulted or not at round-table meetings, they still expect to read a law project that strips
15
them of concessions under new environmental regulations and favour small miners, to the
detriment of the “trans-national corporations that have raped the country and stolen all the
wealth leaving locals impoverished and…” etc etc, i.e. the Petro campaign position. And by the
way, please note that when it comes to the President, he has successfully ridden out the
scandal caused by his own son recently and his government is back on its course. True that his
approval ratings have dropped, but that’s only to be expected and he’s merely polling the same
as all Presidents before him (bar Uribe).
Meanwhile and to one side of any Mining Ministry spin or opinion, the real threat to the mining
sector continues to be the Minister of Environment and Development, Susana Muhamad, one of
President Petro's inner circle and as we've highlighted previous, with an established background
of climate change academia and anti-mining rhetoric. Her ministry is expected to deliver an
executive decree in the near future (12) that limits mining activity in designated Nature Reserve
zones and while that doesn't sound particularly controversial at first light (would anyone allow
an open pit mine in Yellowstone National Park?), a lot depends on 1) where the limit lines are
drawn and 2) whether the new government position interferes with previously granted mining
concessions.
Mininster Muhamad was also present at the National Mining Congress and headed a
presentation to Colombia’s mining world. Rather than add my own spin, here’s a translation of
this decent job of reporting with a neutral tone (13):
“In her words, Minister Muhamas said that the decree would established the criteria
and directives for nature reserves, but the creation of each reserve would be supported
by its own specific administrative act, which would include detailed technical
justifications.
She emphasized that it would not be an inflexible rulebook and that its main objective
was to bring order to areas that had traditinonally seen conflicts in a socio-
environmentally responsible way.
What’s more, the minister underscored that each nature reserve would have its own
timeline of milestones to achieve and a work program that would define its zoning, its
ordainments and the plans for each of the areas. Her focus is clear: “We are not
looking to put an end to the mining industry, nor to restrict it. What we are looking to do
is bring social and environmental order to conflictive zones, where the lack of
coordination between the mining sector and the environmental sector has resulted in
the warding of concession and the generation of socio-environmental conflicts.”
The vision of the government toward mining is to create an industry that is not only
environmentally responsible, but is also integrated socially and economically in the
country. The Ministyer emphasized the need to develop strategic mining that boosts
the value added production and industrialization in Colombia, instead of concentrating
only on the export of minerals with no added value.
Minister Muhamad also noted that in the past, concession titles had been awarded with
no rigorous process, which has resulted in socio-environmental conflicts and illegal
mining activity. She said that it was the State’s responsibility to confront these
problems and strengthen institutions with on-the-ground presence in order to
guarantee a more sustainable future in the mining sector.
Summing up, the executive decree aimed to improve environmental planning, boost
citizen participation, conserve and protect environmentally sensitive zones, guarantee
legal integrity and establish nature reserve areas supported by solid technical
fundamentals. Also, it looked to leave unaffected the legal status of mining companies
that are already established. In the weeks to come, the Ministry of the Environment
would head a dialogue with the mining sector to hear its concerns and create the
conditions necessary for the implementation of the decree.
Shorter version: “Hi, I’m from the government’s environment protection agency and I’m here to
help you”. To close, we quote the final verse of Mary Howitt’s ‘The Spider and the Fly’,
published in 1829, the poem that gave rise to the aphorism in today’s title:
And now dear little children, who may this story read,
To idle, silly flattering words, I pray you ne'er give heed:
Unto an evil counsellor, close heart and ear and eye,
And take a lesson from this tale, of the Spider and the Fly.
16
Peru: Two takeaways from Perumin
As noted last week in IKN749, Perumin happened last week and while it is South America’s
largest mining gig, most of it is a trade fair focused on suppliers selling widgets to mining
companies. However, there were two moments worth reporting on in this edition and they
come from two of the keynote speeches from Peru’s glitterati. First up we do Peru’s Minister of
Energy and Mining, Óscar Vera, who used to opportunity to announce (14) six new government
initiatives to improve and boost the mining sector, both at the producer and exploration levels.
The six include:
New coordination between his Ministry of Energy and Mining (MINEM) and the country’s
Environmental control body, SENACE, to allow faster permits when a company looks to
extend the mine life of its operations.
A reduction of time and bureaucracy needed for exploration stage permits from MINEM
New guidelines to streamline exploration stage environmental permits and allow faster
permitting from SENACE.
New rules for coordination between MINEM and Peru’s Water Authorities (ANA) to reduce
the time required for water permits.
New proposals for the regulation of exploration stage mining companies which will allow
them to submit for multiple permits at the same time, instead of having to apply for and
receive certain permits sequentially.
New rules for the verification of concession titles, which will speed up this part of the
permitting track.
As you have probably gathered by now, these six initiatives are related and all point to
improving the notoriously slow permitting track for mining companies in Peru. MINEM has
moved to improve specific parts of the permitting process in order to speed it up and make it
more user-friendly. Let’s hope it works, because it’s a never-ending source of complaint from
mining companies operating in the country.
The second takeaway of note came from the keynote speech (15) by Peru’s one and only adult
in the room, Central Bank Head Julio Velarde, who has been the main reason the country has
managed to stay on a positive financial course in the last 20 years despite it joke-level political
scene. Velarde had some choice words for the mining sector and they made headlines in all the
serious media channels the next day. Here’s a translation of the two sound bites he left at
Perumin which made the most noise, the first was to tell his audience of miners that a lot of the
problems in mining are due to them and their failure to explain what they do.
“(Mining) has been one of the motors of the economy here (in Peru) and at times we
have looked after it badly, the importance of the sector has not been underscored (to
the general public).”
He then turned to the negative numbers that mining has been posting and would post, telling
them that due to a lack of projects coming through, investment was contracting rapidly.
“Mining investment dropped slightly last year (despite the Anglo Quellaveco mining
coming on line) and this year investment will drop by another 18% year-over-year.
Next year 2024 may see another drop of 7.7% year-over-year.”
In other words, three years of successive investment drops, 2022 to 2024.
Nicaragua: Daniel’s Gold
It’s not easy to find investigative journalism on Nicaragua’s gold sector these days, as the
Daniel Ortega regime tends to arrest and convict any sort of dissent on trumped up “treason to
fatherland” changes, but this (16) from Central American independent media website “Articulo
66” came out last week that used a central point taken from the dictatorship’s own data: That
Nicaragua somehow manages to export far more gold than it produces. This graphic from the
note (right) shows how, for example, by comparing Nicaragua Central Bank export numbers to
Nicaragua Ministry of Energy and Ming production numbers, the country in 2021 sold 5.2 metric
17
tonnes more than it apparently produced and in 2022 sold 4.9 extra metric tonnes. In round
numbers, that’s a shortfall of U$296m in 2021 and $288m
in 2022, more than enough to keep a greedy dictator in
power. The article then goes on to list other issues around
the gold mining sector in Nicaragua, such as the
environmental damage being done by mining, be it legal
or illegal, and the sheer quantity of new concessions in
rural and jungle zones now being awarded to the highest
bidders, often Chinese capitals companies or individual
prospectors. However, we on the outside should be clear
that all those companies operating “legally” inside the
country are absolutely aware of the “gold washing” that’s
going on around them and the way their apparently legal
operations are used as a front to sell gold that is propping
up this dictatorship of human rights abusers.
The report covers the way the USA imposed sanctions on
the country’s mining sector and how the ostensible
banning of gold hasn’t worked at all so far, in fact exports
of Nicaraguan gold to The USA have only increased further
since then. It also notes in an oblique mention that the USA may move to tighten its sanctions
again in the near future (be that a successful strategy or not), whether that happens and if it is
even effective would remain to be seen. However and for the record, the Articulo 66 report only
strengthened this desk’s resolve not to dirty its portfolio or recommended stocks lists with
anything Nica-related. Be clear; mining companies such as Calibre, Condor, Mako etc are 100%
aware of what’s going on in and around them.
Market Watching
Provenance Gold (PAU.cse) on the Watch List
And closes it well. It took almost a month longer than anticipated, but on September 25th
Provenance Gold (PAU.cse) closed its non-brokered private placement and closed it well, over-
subscribed with gross proceeds of C$1.24m (net proceeds won’t be much lower in this case),
selling exactly 15,517,000 units at 8c apiece (unit = share plus full warrant priced at 12c with a
3 year shelf life). That’s over 50% more than originally planned and under the circumstances,
let’s copypaste the CEO quote in the NR that day (17):
Rauno Perttu, CEO of Provenance states, “Having such strong support from our
current and new shareholders speaks to the strength of our properties. We are
extremely pleased with the initial results of our exploration program this summer at
Eldorado. We look forward to continuing work on the property this fall. Our initial drill
program supported the historic drilling and discovered a new thick strongly mineralized
zone below the historic drilling with further results pending. Our goal, despite the less
than favorable current market conditions, is to provide solid, tangible in-ground
advancements. We also believe the gold market will strengthen in the months ahead,
with world-wide shrinking reserves, few new discoveries and growing demand.”
That’s fair enough and while it’s clear the current market is dragging on us all, with sentiment
in the dumpster and your author doing some necessary sail-trimming to raise cash for later, I
cannot help but agree with his view of the longer-term. As such and as promised (threatened?),
as from next weekend PAU will be on the Stocks To Follow Watch List. I’m not a buyer yet, but
the Watch List exists to keep tabs on potential purchases and interesting company stories;
that’s exactly what this stock is today.
Pan Global Resources (PGZ.v): One quick chart and done for now
Considering it’s a small exploreco that we don’t own, reco or even have on the Watch List,
we’ve done a lot on Pan Global in recent editions, up to and including last weekend’s “Pan
18
Global Resources (PGZ.v): 2q23 financials and Romana West drill assays”, so just a brief update
and an hourlies chart and we’re done for now. The closing price of 20.5c Canadian on Friday…
…is a long way down from its recent promo-led pop and the type of price I’m looking for on the
other side of its eventual, or inevitable, financing round. The market realizes the company’s
treasury doesn’t match its development plans for Escacena and this 20c-or-abouts seems to be
the price CEO Moody will have to swallow in order to raise capital. A pain in the butt for current
holders, but as we’re still on the outside looking in it suits this desk.
In much the same style as Provenance (PAU.cse) above, we’ll pick up again on PGZ once the
financing is done and we know where the stock is trading, a strategy that may also give us time
to see how copper-the-metal plays out. It’s part of The Copper Basket and for the time being,
that’s where we’ll continue to note on any minor progress points at PGZ. Is 20.5c cheap? Yes of
course, but the need to finance means it could get even cheaper.
Conclusion
IKN750 is done, we end with some bullet points:
With metals markets deteriorating, it’s time to raise some cash and lessen exposures.
Four sales and a trimming of a large position is the decision.
We’ll be watching the wires and listening to the CONAIE decision on any alliance
between now and next Sunday, at which point we’ll make a call on the outcome of the
Ecuador election. That’s for IKN751 and if things stands the way they are, Daniel Noboa
will win and Ecuador stocks will rally. That’s next weekend.
Copper is the main worry and while I continue to be bullish in the long-term, even the
medium-term, the period from now to the Chinese New Year may well see a price drop.
We act accordingly by making most sales junior copper sales.
I managed to get this edition done concisely and succinctly. Not a bad thing from time
to time, but mostly due to the fact that the rationale for selling those five (4 and a half)
positions was laif out last week. And that I’m lazy, of course.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stock is Minera Alamos (MAI.v). Flash
updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best wishes, Mark
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/09/schedule-for-week-of-october-1-2023.html
19
(2) https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/central-banks-bought-most-gold-since-1967-last-year-wgc-says-2023-
01-31/
(3) https://www.xetra-gold.com/en/gold-news/news/record-gold-purchases-by-central-banks-in-h1-2023/
(4) https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202309/07/WS64f98d15a310d2dce4bb4843.html
(5) https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/chinas-strong-metal-imports-not-bullish-they-seem-andy-home-2023-
09-28/
(6)https://www.cochilco.cl/Paginas/Estudios/Mercados%20de%20metales%20e%20insumos%20estrat%C3%A9gicos/In
formes-Semanales-2015.aspx
(7) https://www.eldoradogold.com/news-and-media/news-releases/press-release-details/2023/Eldorado-Gold-
Announces-Third-Quarter-2023-Preliminary-Production-and-Conference-Call-Details-Provides-Project-Update-on-
Skouries/default.aspx
(8) https://www.perfil.com/noticias/politica/encuesta-milei-y-massa-se-distancian-de-bullrich-e-irian-a-una-segunda-
vuelta.phtml
(9) https://www.ambito.com/economia/dolar-minero-analizan-un-tipo-cambio-diferencial-potenciar-exportaciones-
n5831755
(10) https://revistaimagen.com/con-el-cambio-de-gobierno-la-mineria-busca-relanzar-su-imagen-y-obtener-licencia-
social-con-una-mega-campana-2/
(11) https://www.larepublica.co/economia/ministerio-de-minas-invita-a-privados-a-acuerdo-nacional-para-construir-ley-
minera-3716089
(12) https://www.eltiempo.com/economia/sectores/minambiente-susana-muhamad-dice-que-no-buscan-acabar-con-la-
mineria-en-colombia-811350
(13) https://www.lafm.com.co/politica/susana-muhamad-no-buscamos-poner-fin-a-la-industria-minera
(14) https://www.rumbominero.com/peru/minem-seis-medidas-exploracion-y-explotacion-minera/
(15) https://rpp.pe/economia/economia/julio-velarde-inversion-minera-se-ha-descuidado-noticia-1507938
(16) https://www.articulo66.com/2023/09/27/investigacion-oro-ortega-nicaragua-exportaciones-importaciones/
(17) https://webfiles.thecse.com/Provenance_Gold_Private_Placement.pdf?b00xBzcjHAwuj94XHJJDR52PiQe1Gb1J
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2022
Closed in 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
Goldshore Res GSHR.v Nov'22 C$0.18 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 88.9% Quick profit taken
Palamina Corp PA.v Dec'22 C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.08 -72.9% Clear-out of underperformer
Pure Gold PGM.h Dec'22 C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.015 -89.3% tiny trade on vh risk, went Ch11
20
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Set-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
21
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
22
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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