IKN #749Premium

The IKN Weekly
Week 749, September 24th 2023
Contents
This Week: In Today’s Edition, Seriously considering several sales.
Fundamental Analysis: Equinox Gold (EQX) decides to raise capital, The Second “State of
New Trade Ideas”.
Stocks to Follow: Minera Alamos (MAI.v), Equinox Gold (EQX), Fortuna Silver (FSM), Faraday
Copper (FDY.to), Amerigo Resources (ARG.to), Western Exploration (WEX.v), QC Copper & Gold
(QCCU.v).
The Copper Basket: Overview, Solaris Resources (SLS.to), Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.to), Pan
Global Resources (PGZ.v), Oroco Resources (OCO.v).
Producer Basket: Overview, Newmont Mining (NEM).
The TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Palamina Corp (PA.v).
Regional Politics: El Salvador and a Presidential election and mining, Argentina: One month
to go, Peru: Perumin starts tomorrow.
Market Watching: A molybdenum market update, Pan Global Resources (PGZ.v): 2q23
financials and Romana West drill assays, Revival Gold (RVG.v redux and its price drop.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
In Today’s Edition
 The portfolio’s gold speculation trade, equinox Gold (EQX), got royally screwed last
week by the announcement EQX had decided to run a financing that raised gross
proceeds of U$172.5m. We examine the reasons why the market reacted the way it
did, the likely rationale behind the EQX decision to finance and make a trade decision
on the stock. That’s the top half of today’s main Fundamental’s section.
 Following on in the same section, with 3q23 now winding down (Friday is quarter end)
we run a brief resumé of the new stocks and trade idea presented here in The IKN
Weekly since the similar piece in IKN736.
 We were doom and gloom in The Copper Basket last weekend, we’re doom and gloom
again. There are mounting signals all pointing the same direction and that direction is
South. As noted in the intro section, we’re going to give it another week before making
a proactive decision but the near-term price weakness is getting too obvious to ignore.
 When was the last time I’ve even mentioned El Salvador in the Regional Politics section
of The IKN Weekly, let alone made it the main coverage note? Today’s the day, as the
political moves and shakes going on are starting to re-open the door to the formal
mining world there. Reasons and heads-up below.
 Today’s intro tells you how close I was to calling sell on a handful of currently held,
open positions. That’s not going to happen for at least another seven days (and I’ve
used that Hamlet quote on many other occasions), but it was a close call and I cannot
help but think the market for juniors is heading for another rough period. If we hadn’t
had enough this year already.
1

 I started writing a two paragraph brief update on Pan Global Resources (PGZ.v) and
didn’t want to fill up this week’s edition with its story after the last two, but the note
took on a life of its own. That’s down in Market Watching.
Seriously considering several sales
We’re not going into the Fed decision, the “we’re still data driven” presser or the market
reaction to the charade today, as there really wasn’t anything to surprise much and anything I
write is unlikely to add anything original to the debate. Instead we’re getting IKN Weekly
specific and floating specific thoughts about my own portfolio that arise from last week’s market
action. For what it’s worth, most of my thought process has been debating on whether to
announce sales in this weekend’s edition or to allow another week’s worth of market data and
action before making the call but, as the title line above indicates, after due consideration I’ve
decided on the latter and will wait another week before making the decision. However be clear,
it was a close-run thing and around midday Saturday I found myself drafting a very difference
intro section than the one you’re reading today.
The potential-as-yet-unrealized sale of several stocks at once will have the specific company
fundamentals as part of the decision process, however I’m sure you’ll have realized by now that
it’s more about the macro circumstances than anything else. Long story short, due to the way
the market seems to be turning against the mining sector once again, I fear the best policy may
well be to raise cash and batten down the hatches for a rough few months.
If I were sure about that I’d be selling as from tomorrow, but there’s still enough doubt in my
mind to hold off a few more days and allow time to make the wisest decision possible.
However, as I try hard not to keep secrets from you the esteemed subscribers of The IKNb
Weekly I’m also good about listing those potential sales:
 AbraSilver (ABRA.v)
 QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v)
 Faraday Copper (FDY.to)
 Orecap Inv (OCI.v)
 Partial sale of Amerigo Resources (ARG.to)
There are three broad themes among those five sales:
 Copper: Due to the increasing potential for a copper sell-off in the near-term, FDY, QCCU
and a few more shares of ARG are on the block. Those as a group would lighten my copper
exposure and bring me down to a more comfortable level, as if copper turns South as it’s
now threatening to do in what remains of 2023, I’d lose too much money by holding
through.
 AbraSilver (ABRA.v) is a potential sale because it needs to finance in a tough market, its
target metal of silver is more susceptible to recession headwinds then gold, plus I’ve never
really been comfortable about silver trades at the best of times. ABRA is my idea of the best
of a bad bunch, but that might not be enough and the way the share price acted last week
shows there’s minimal support at the moment.
 Orecap Inv (OCI.v) is on the block because it’s a tinycap investment that’s goner nowhere
and done something since bringing it on board. The cash it would raise from a sale would be
minimal (we’re talking a foothold position in a pennycrapper) but there’s little point in
holding a microcap like this at the moment, it needs a buoyant market to show its potential.
So not final decision today, but I think it only fair to warn the readership there may be a fairly
strict thinning out of losing stocks in the near future if the market maintains its current course
and sentiment. After almost calling the sales this weekend, I’m now looking to make a proactive
decision by this time next weekend but that’s not a cast-iron guarantee, either. What I can
assure you, however, is that I’ll be watching the market very closely in the five trading days
ahead.
2

Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Equinox Gold (EQX) decides to raise capital
Here’s a ten-day price chart of Equinox Gold (EQX), your author’s chosen vehicle to trade gold
leverage in the near to medium-term:
As you can see, something happened on Tuesday morning. Precisely, this NR filed post-close
Monday evening September 18th (1):
Equinox Gold Corp. (TSX: EQX) (NYSE American: EQX) (“Equinox Gold” or the
“Company”) announces that it has entered into an agreement with BMO Capital
Markets, on behalf of itself and the other initial purchasers (collectively, the “Initial
Purchasers”), pursuant to which the Initial Purchasers have agreed to buy, on a bought
deal basis, 4.75% unsecured convertible senior notes due 2028 (the “Notes”) in an
aggregate principal amount of $150 million (the “Offering”). The Company has granted
the Initial Purchasers an option for a period of 30 days to purchase up to an additional
$22.5 million aggregate principal amount of Notes. The Notes will be issued at par
value.
The Company intends to use net proceeds of the Offering for repayment of debt and
for general corporate purposes.
The NR added a few extra details on conversion price and so forth, but the essence is in that
first paragraph. EQX then followed up with this NR on Thursday September 21st:
Equinox Gold Corp. (TSX: EQX) (NYSE American: EQX) (“Equinox Gold” or the
“Company”) has closed its previously announced bought deal offering of $172.5 million
aggregate principal amount of 4.75% unsecured convertible senior notes due 2028
(the “2028 Notes”), which includes exercise of the full amount of the option to purchase
an additional $22.5 million aggregate principal amount of Notes (the “Offering”). The
conversion rate for the 2028 Notes is 158.7302 common shares of Equinox Gold
(“Shares”) per $1,000 principal amount of the 2028 Notes, equivalent to a conversion
price of $6.30 per Share. The Company intends to use net proceeds of the Offering for
repayment of debt and for general corporate purposes.
That didn’t take long and unsurprisingly, the totality of the overallotment facility was taken up
despite the way the share price had already fallen off a cliff and cheaper paper was available on
the open market. However, there was a distinct difference between the “use of proceeds”
information in the original NR and that of the Thursday closure NR, as EQX CEO Greg Smith
must have taken plenty of flak between then and then, so we also got an extended CEO quote
added to explain the apparent benefits of the deal:
Greg Smith, President & CEO of Equinox Gold, commented: “This debt financing
enables us to pay down part of our revolving credit facility, providing immediate interest
savings while also positioning us to manage the upcoming maturity of our April 2024
$140 million convertible notes. The new 2028 Notes have a lower interest rate,
substantially higher conversion price, no covenants and are unsecured, while
extending debt maturity to October 2028.”
So far so prosaic. According to the company, it had taken this U$150m-cum-$172.5m debt
facility in order to pay a similar facility that matures in April next year, i.e. less than 12 months
3

away and now a part of its current liabilities book. It would also be able to partially pay down
its revolving debt facility and as such, the deal looks more like a company booting forward debt
in normal style than a reason to dump a share price by 13.5% week-over-week and 19.3% on
the trading day after the announcement. So what’s the problem?
Greenstone capex, that’s the problem. All we’ve heard form EQX all the way through the
development and construction of Greenstone is that the project is on time and on budget.
Therefore, with the extensions to its debt facilities and the $150m-$200m pre-paid gold facility
it took out in 1q23, the market assumed EQX was fully financed to cover its 60% end of the
capex bill and bring Greenstone into production. Indeed, it was one of the major factors your
author took into consideration when deciding on EQX as the way to play gold leverage in 2024
and opening the speculative trade, as the balance sheet items seemed to comfortably cover the
EQX bill and we’d see no further dilution.
Apparently, that’s not the case. The central point of the issue is the EQX debt book and this
chart shows its evolution from way back when, as a little history lesson is required at this point.
Back in late 2018 and early 2019, EQX held a mish-mash of debt that was mostly its then-
modest revolving debt facility, plus credit lines owed to Sprott, a standby loan it had tapped, a
small $10m debenture and even a short-term loan provided by company chair Ross Beaty (for a
quarter). Then in 2019 that was consolidated by a single debt facility, the U$140m convert led
by Saudi Arabia’s money entity Mubadala. Come 2020 and Mubadala et al added a second
convertible for the same amount (that one matures in March 2025) as well as a significant
expansion of its revolving debt facility. That’s remained the same until recently, as in early 2023
the revolver was expanded again to a maximum of U$700m, That along with the $200m gold
pre-pay deal and the expected cash flow EQX was set to throw off from its existing gold
operations, was expected to be enough to see it through.
EQX: loans and borrowings
4
748.484 27.584
961.982 19.982 156.092 14.192 715.582 126.972 607.372
497.763 521.064 887.065 58.365 675.465
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2
U$m
other
2020 convert (Mubadala)
2019 convert (Mubadala)
revolver
source: company filings
So now let’s take the same dataset and model this debt book to the start of production at
Greenstone, using the new information from last week:
EQX: loans and borrowings (incl estimates to 2q24)
1100
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4 tse42q1 tse42q2
U$m
other
2023 convert
2020 convert (Mubadala)
2019 convert (Mubadala)
revolver
source: company filings
Here we see the two Mubadala loans continue into 2024 but the red one is paid in full when it

matures in April that year (during 2q24). For what it’s worth, that 2019 debt is separated and
shown in the inset chart right, to show how it grows to
its full U$140m value on maturity and then disappears.
EQX: The 2019 convertible debt
In the meantime, we have the news U$172.5m convert
facility appearing and that’s almost certain to be applied
directly to the revolving loan pile, its biggest and most
expensive debt to service. That jumped from the
U$565m as at end 2q23 to the full U$700m (minus the
time discount) this quarter, but we now assume EQX
pays it down to around U$525m net by applying the
new cash raised. Finally, if EQX decides not to use its
operating profits from the other mines to its debt, we’ll
then see the company expand its revolver once again in
2q24 to pay off the maturing convert.
He issue here is that the market expected the last tranche of the Greenstone capex to come
from operating profits and its positive working capital position. It would need to retain certain
levels of liquidity to comply with its debt covenants, but overall the balance sheet looked more
than capable of covering its obligations in 2024, pay off maturing debt in April and get
Greenstone into production.
This is what the market complained about last week, as it now assumed one of three things:
1) EQX is being too conservative in its financial projections and has sold this debt for
reasons other than Greenstone.
2) Greenstone is going to cost more than the company has guided, even though we’ve
heard repeated statements that the project is on time and budget. EQX will officially
update the capex cost at the end of 1q24, so the optics of last week are potentially the
company front-running bad news.
3) Its current operations are not going to make the same amount of free cash flow as
expected, in other words we’re about to get bad news on costs.
The truth may of course be a combination of those and only time will tell, but what we do know
is that the market reacted very negatively to the news last week, which at best is unnecessary
dilution and at worst, flagging financial issues for the next 12 months and if the latter, the risk
of Greenstone not coming online as expected would put the company under even more
pressure.
With approximately 313m shares out, the 69c lost to the share price between last weekend and
this weekend implies a drop in market cap of U$216m, significantly more than the $172.5m
gross proceeds raised last week. It adds a net of U$32.5m to the balance sheet, but what it
does do now is to guarantee, rock solid and without doubt, that EQX covers its obligations
easily in 2024 even if the costs come in high or the current ops disappoint analysts. It was
probably an easy decision for the company to make, the issue therefore is one of optics.
5
0
15.421 71.521 58.521 45.621 32.721 59.721 96.821 24.921 71.031 59.031 47.131 35.231 53.331 91.431 40.531 98.531 77.631 831 931 041
0
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4 tse42q1 tse42q2
U$m
source: EQX filings
800 EQX: Working Capital per qtr
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 tse32q3
source company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
EQX: Mine Operating Income, per qtr
291.34
390.58 96.79
802.46
442.44 292.14 496.54
63.99 594.82
499.61
934.7
759.13
164.41
417.03
82
110
100
90
80
70
60 50
40
30
20
10
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 tse32q3
U$m
source: company filings

The market didn’t like the deal because it implies execution risk at Greenstone and/or the other
operating assets at EQX. However, this new debt facility almost certainly reduces risk, rather
than increases it. Yes, it keeps around U$140 of financial liability on its books that the market
(e.g. a grunt like me with his Excel sheet) assumed would disappear without any further
booting forward, but the money I’d earmarked to pay off that convertible only fails to appear if
EQX’s current operations do not deliver. We’ll find out more about that when the company
announces its 3q23 production and financials in November and on that, it’s the same risk as we
were running before. Id EQX implying a poor quarter or two from its ops? No I don’t think so,
it’s far more likely that it’s looking to guarantee its $140m in April and may well pay that off
without using what is now left on its revolving credit line (approx U$170m now).
Bottom line: When earlier this year I filtered the gold producers for the right name to use as a
speculative long that would provide leverage to gold, Equinox Gold first made the shortlist and
then became the choice because it ticked the right boxes:
 Large production profile of 500k oz Au,
 Organic growth guaranteed in the near-term with production moving up toward 800koz
once Greenstone was in operation
 Well known name and an easily traded, liquid stock
 High cash cost providing the optimum leverage to gold in the U$1,900/oz to
U$2,000/oz price range
However, I was also clear that it wasn’t a riskless trade. For one, the deliberate choice of
buying a large gold miner with a high cash cost means its leverage can cut both ways and if
gold went South, EQX would quickly move into operating loss territory. But also, it’s run by a
team that may have a “winner’s reputation” but they’re also infamous for screwing little retail
you when you least expect it. Therefore, when I read Monday’s NR my heart dropped and while
annoyed with the EQX announcement, it was difficult to call it an out-and-out surprise because
it was true to form for this management team. And yes, I went in eyes-wide-open, knowing this
or something like this would be a risk.
However and with all that said, EQX was oversold and punished too severely for its move last
week. I agree that booting forward the convert debt pile isn’t as price positive as my previous
assumptions, but if the company can generate the type of free cash flow I expect it to, there’s
no reason why it will need all (or perhaps even any) of the newly freed up revolving debt now
held in reserve. As for Greenstone, there may be an unpleasant surprise of a capex overrun
announced in 2024, but the way in which EQX has regularly, even proudly reiterated how it is
on time/on budget at the project for the last couple of years is unlikely to have come
screeching to a halt just because of last week’s debt boot. Therefore and on due consideration,
I tend to agree with the company’s position
 This debt deal has not materially deteriorated EQX financials
 It’s not a signal of problems at the Greenstone build-out
 There’s no reason to assume crimped margins and lower than expected profits from
current operations
 This move guarantees funds for Greenstone, swapping more expensive revolver liability
to an easier to manage convert, with set servicing payments and a maturity date that
will come around when EQX is very different and larger animal.
What we saw is a company going a safe route and lessening risk, but the market decided it had
increased risk and jumped to conclusions. In effect, the market is wrong and as at this
weekend, EQX is mis-priced in our considered opinion. This stock is a buy in the days ahead
and is likely to recover sharply once people realize it’s a safer and financially stronger option
with the same upside potential and leverage to gold as before.
The Second “State of New Trade Ideas”
After running features, overviews and even a couple of active new trade ideas on a handful of
stocks during Q2, it occurred to this desk that it would be worth reviewing and re-capping on
6

the featured companies in order not to lose the ideas in the general swamp of information that
The IKN Weekly can sometimes be. To that end, in IKN736 dated June 25th this year we ran
“The State of the New Union” in the main fundies section, in which we ran an overview of
recent stock ideas (as well as a brief update on some of the main holdings already on the
Stocks to Follow list and owned personally). That little featured was well received, so with Q3
now closing out and having run features on a bunch of different companies since then, today
we repeat the exercise on the six stories we’ve covered in either the main fundamentals
section, or in extended notes in Market Watching, or both. Some of the stocks have
subsequently been included on the main Stocks to Follow list but in all cases, we’ve been
interested enough to take a close look and consider their respective pros and cons. So here we
go with updates on the six companies in question:
 Libero Copper (LBC.v):
 Fortuna Silver (FSM) (FVI.to)
 Provenance Gold (PAU.cse)
 Contango ORE (CTGO)
 SilverCrest Metals (SILV) (SIL.to)
 Pan Global Resources (PGZ.v)
We do them in chronological order of appearance in editions of The IKN Weekly (no
favouritism) ands in each case, you get a write-up and a three month price chart that shows
where the company stood when getting its write-up(s) and what it’s done since then. Some
segments are brief and others have more to say, the idea is to keep the trade ideas fresh and
to consider them in the changed circumstances of late September. So without further ado…
Libero Copper (LBC.v): Chronological order is the way, so the first new company to mention
was featured in IKN737 dated July 2nd in the main fundies note “Libero Copper (LBC.v) has a
trade set up on the San Juan election result”. The title of the piece was reasonably prosaic too,
as the plan was to put LBC onto the Stocks to Follow Watch List with a view to being quick on
the draw if the company finally got its exploration and drilling permit approved on its Esperanza
copper project in San Juan province, Argentina. That day we went into the political background
and the reason LBC had failed to secure the drilling permits (strong local community
opposition), but thought that it was possible to see the logjam freed under the new political
scene that had seen right wing candidates with a more free market philosophy win key roles in
San Juan province.
Since then we’ve seen San Juan inaugurate its new
politicos, but pure radio silence from LBC in recent
weeks despite once again claiming that the permit “is
90% done” (translation: it’s not done). Under those
circumstances it’s no surprise to see the share price fall
off and that’s good for us, as if it manages to announce
the surprise and start drilling, we’ll be ready to buy up
at the first opportunity and at 4c, even if it pops 50%
on the news we’ll be getting in for below the share price
of early July (and be clear, I’d pay 6c in a heartbeat for
shares as the drill results from Esperanza would be
more than enough for the shady types around this stock to run an almighty pump job). It does
no harm on the Watch List and will stay there, but please be clear this is ONLY an active trade
with those permits in-hand, no attempts to bottom fish or second guess allowed.
Fortuna Silver (FSM) (FVI.to): As I’m sure you’re aware, this stock has moved up the
rankings from idea, to potential and now is an active trade on the Stocks to Follow list. We
began recent coverage in IKN738 dated July 9th in the main fundies note “Fortuna Silver (FSM)
(FVI.to) may at last be a buy” and then added extra thoughts a week later in IKN739 dated July
16th and the note “Following up on Fortuna Silver (FSM) (FVI.to)”, which took in the 2q23
production numbers that had just been published and the ensuing price pop. However, it wasn’t
until most of that price hike had unwound that I pulled the trigger and decided to buy some
7

shares, that note came in IKN743 dated August 13th and the fundamental analysis note
“Fortuna Silver (FSM) (FVI.to): 2q23 financials offer a bargain entry point” and after two
modest purchases, I’m now an owner of FSM shares at a sub-U$3 price average.
Here’s the three month price chart with those dates shown:
Fair to say we spotted the value proposition in IKN738 and, if anyone bought then for a quick
flip, well done if you took profits. However, we were also right to wait until the enthusiasm for
the 2q23 numbers had waned and sure enough, the same market that loved its production
numbers hated the financials the generated in early August. That gave the buying opportunity
and we took it.
Since then even though the stock has wavered and hasn’t managed to take off in the way I’d
like, I’m in at the right price and waiting for the next likely catalyst, that’s the 3q23 production
numbers that should be with us in around three weeks’ time (maybe a little less). We’re looking
for strong numbers from the new Séguéla mine (we already know the July and August months
went according to plan) and also improvements from its Yaramoko mine, which should start to
show the fruits of the sustaining capex ploughed in by FSM as from this quarter. The stock
trade is predicated upon a market unaware of the significant fundamental changes that have
gone on at FSM, one that could well be surprised by its new gold-focused production numbers
when compared to its current market cap. Holding through on the trade, decision time on
hold/sell will be on the 3q23 production NR.
Provenance Gold (PAU.cse): We began coverage of this tinycap gold exploreco that’s been
hitting long intercepts of very decent gold grades in IKN740 dated, July 23rd 2023 in the note
“Provenance Gold (PAU.cse): Ignored and Interesting”. The plan from the start was to wait for
the company to run its near-inevitable equity financing, see if it closes in good order and then
look for a nice entry price, after which we’d be holding a small amount of shares in a classic drill
bit speculation vehicle, the type of very high risk/high reward trade that are the lifeblood of the
early stage exploreco market.
So, a risky spec proposition but so far, no decision even
to put the company on the Watch List. That’s because
even though PAU did indeed announce its financing on
August 21st (8), planning to raise $800k by selling 10m
units (unit = share + full warrant at 12c strike with a
three year shelf life), that financing has yet to close. As
noted in a recent edition, the issue is apparently not a
lack of interest but some sort of paperwork hiccup and
we should expect PAU to close the financing
successfully, however there’s no rush on this trade idea
and I’m only going to put it on the Watch List once the
financing is closed and we see where the shares trade on the open market. There should be
plenty of time to position between that event and the advent of the next drill results from its
8

Eldorado project in Eastern Idaho. This trade idea is still very much alive and given the right
circumstances, there’s the potential to back a real springer if things go well and the company
gets luck with market timing. Watching brief.
Contango ORE (CTGO): This is not a new stock idea, in fact it’s been on the menu for almost
two years, but in IKN741 dated July 30th 2023 the main Fundamental Analysis note that day
was entitled “Buying Contango ORE (CTGO)” and it was the date that I finally (finally!) got the
entry point we’d been waiting for on this stock. First
and foremost we like CTGO for Manh Choh, its 30%
owned project operated by Kinross (70%) now under
construction in the GWN. We also like CTGO for its
second project, Lucky Strike, which now has the
funding required for a more extensive drill program
and development of its high grade resource toward
the 500,000 oz| gold number that CTGO CEO Rick Van
Nieuwenhuyse believes as a reasonable first target.
But we also like CTGO these days for its entry point
and being in at U$18.70 is a better price than I’d
imagined possible. The stock is now (finally!) showing
some reasonable trading volume and as the three
month chart shows, the market is putting in a fundamental baseline in the price. Now and open
trade and on the Stocks to Follow list, this one will get plenty of close coverage in the next year
as Manh Choh comes online and the cash starts to flow. I fully expect to see this back over the
U$30 level in 2024 and have all the patience in the world for this story to unpack.
SilverCrest Metals (SILV) (SIL.to): We first mentioned SilverCrest Metals (SILV) (SIL.to) in
IKN741 dated July 30th 2023 as a preview to the to publication of its updated Technical Report
on Las Chispas, then a week later in IKN742 dated
August 6t which picked over the damage done to the
share price that week. Then after some
procrastination, we finally did a closer look at the
company and made a more proactive call on the stock
in IKN745 dated August 27th in the main fundies note,
“SilverCrest Metals Inc (SILV) (SIL.to): Considering the
financials”.
However and unlike the recent analyses in larger PM
producers such as Equinox Gold (EQX) or Fortuna
Silver (FSM), this one hasn’t made the cut. It’s a
decent story and I may be passing on a winner,
especially if silver does better than I expect and out-performs gold. However and on
consideration in IKN745, the decision was to pass on SILV as there was less evident value in a
new trade, even at the discounted prices since that 43-101 report, and I prefer FSM and EQX
for this type of trade. I have nothing against SILV and if you wanted a Canadian sell side
market call on the stock I’d say “Market Perform”, as there are others with more appeal.
Pan Global Resources (PGZ.v): The most recent new trade idea first showed in IKN747
dated September 10th 2023 in the fundies note “The cheap copper at Pan Global Resources
(PGZ.v)”, we then featured it last week in IKN748
and there’s also a longer note than I expected to
write in Market Watching today. Therefore these
notes will be kept to a minimum, just enough to
present the three month chart and show the signs of
a bottom forming in the stock at this price, though
with plenty of volatility on show as well. Please see
‘Market Watching’ below for more.
9

Stocks to Follow
The only true saving grace on the week was the rally seen by Minera Alamos (MAI.v up 7.0%),
which swam against the tide and was one of only four of our stocks to return a win on the
week (MAI.v, NCAU.v, WEX.v, ALDE.v). Four stocks were unchanged (RIO.v, OCI.v, SURG.v,
RUG.v) and that means 12 losers and no long list of those. However and sadly, plenty of those
stocks were big losers so we point the bony accusation finger at Minera IRL (MIRL.cse down
25.0%), AbraSilver (ABRA.v down 18.7%), Equinox (EQX down 13.5%), Libero (LBC.v down
11.1%) and while we’re at it, the trading in Amerigo (ARG.to down 8.5%) and SolGold (SOLG.to
down 8.3%) didn’t drop them by 10%, but it was close.
We currently have 20 open positions on the list, that’s the self-imposed maximum. After the
shellacking of last week just four remain in the green and the rest are in the red.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.305 45.2% $0.75 first tgt, #1 idea
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Amerigo Res ARG.to hold C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.29 -5.1% May make partial sale
SolGold SOLG.to BUY C$0.265 19-Feb-23 C$0.22 -17.0% Cu in Ecuador, M&A tgt
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v hold C$0.265 25-Apr-21 C$0.145 -45.2% May sell
Equinox Gold EQX BUY U$4.46 30-May-23 U$4.44 -0.5% Au leverage trade, painful week
Fortuna Silver FSM BUY U$2.92 13-Aug-23 U$2.85 -2.4% New trade, want quick flip
Faraday Copper FDY.to hold C$0.79 26-Mar-23 C$0.68 -13.9% May sell
Contango Ore CTGO BUY U$18.70 30-Jul-23 U$18.71 0.1% new purchase IKN741
AbraSilver Res. ABRA.v hold C$0.36 4-Dec-22 C$0.305 -15.3% May sell
Newcore Gold NCAU.v SPEC BUY C$0.205 23-Oct-22 C$0.12 -41.5% Financing closed, bottom in
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v BUY C$0.83 22-Apr-18 C$0.225 -72.9% Cheap on permit probs, appeal
SPECULATIVE TRADES
Orecap inv OCI.v hold C$0.04 20-Nov-22 C$0.035 -12.5% May sell
Western Explor. WEX.v SPEC BUY C$1.87 9-Apr-23 C$0.90 -51.9% Au spec in USA, started badly
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v SPEC BUY C$0.72 16-May-21 C$0.86 19.4% now in drill assay season
Minera IRL MIRL.cse avoid C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.015 -92.3% run into ground byCEO, AVOID
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
Marimaca Copper MARI.to WATCH C$3.65 26-May-23 C$4.05 11.0% Likely buy, want cheap entry
Surge Copper SURG.v WATCH C$0.11 18-Jun-23 C$0.095 -13.6% tinycap Cu in BC Canada
Libero Copper LBC.v WATCH C$0.065 2-Jul-23 C$0.04 -38.5% Watching for Arg drill permit
Rugby Resources RUG.v WATCH C$0.06 26-Mar-23 C$0.04 -33.3% tinycap Cu in Colombia
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.63 6-Dec-20 C$0.40 -36.5% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2023 date closed close price
Altiplano Metals APN.v jan'23 C$0.31 17-Sep-21 C$0.17 -45.2% delayed and will dilute soon
Western Copper WRN.to mar'23 C$2.02 13-Nov-22 C$2.32 14.9% sold on reduced M&A prob.
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v may'23 C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$1.75 -43.0% Closing on legal action news
Amerigo Res ARG.to may'23 C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.48 8.8% sold 20% to raise cash
2015 to 2022 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on a few of our covered companies:
Minera Alamos (MAI.v): It feels like quite a while since we’ve been allowed to reproduce this
type of chart about MAI:
10

MAI has spent the last few months rising and falling with the market medians, so seeing buyers
and enthusiasm for the stock on the last day of trading, as participants at the Denver gold show
chewed over what they’d seen and heard, made for a pleasant change in tone. That Friday
volume at around 150k wasn’t massive, but it was still reasonable and buyers paid the ask all
day. Up on a down week and a morale boost from the Top Pick stock at the right time.
Equinox Gold (EQX): Ugh, what a painful reversal:
The financing news on Tuesday did for the stock and we chew over some of the financials and
their implications above in today’s main Fundamentals note. Here it’s about the price action and
EQX was never going to recover from that sort of unpleasant surprise, not in a market like this
one. So from sailing pleasantly on a 15% or so gain, EQX is back at our purchase price of late
May and to add insult to injury, its Friday close price added another line of red ink to the table
above. However and as explained above, I expect EQX to rally this week as the selling we saw
last week was way overdone.
Fortuna Silver (FSM): FSM also lost ground on the week, down 5.6% and that was enough
to nudge our small gain back into small loss. We had some fundies news from the company, as
on schedule and without surprise Fortuna completed the purchase of Chesser Resources. The
all share deal means that (quote NR (3))
“On closing, Fortuna issued 15,545,368 Fortuna Shares in exchange for the Chesser
Shares, representing approximately 5.1 percent of the resulting issued and outstanding
Fortuna Shares on an undiluted basis.”
As for the prize, that’s mainly Chesser’s “Diamba Sud” project located in Senegal, West Africa.
The open pit gold project comes with a PEA level economic assessment and a JORC-compliant
M+I resource of 10.0mt grading 1.9 g/t Au, which gives it an M+I resource of 625,000oz Au,
plus an Inferred of 4.7 Mt averaging 1.5 g/t Au for another 235,000oz Au.
Chesser/Diamba Sud is not the reason we’ve gone long FSM in recent weeks, that’s all about its
likely sharp improvement in gold production and revenues from its existing operations.
However, this deal adds development pipeline to FSM, no bad thing in the longer term.
11

Faraday Copper (FDY.to): To make things easier, FDY has added its Beaver Creek Precious
Metals Summit presentation to its own YouTube channel and you can watch it here (4), a run-
through of Copper Creek and its development to date and its expected milestones in the next
12 months, i.e. all the reasons we bought into the stock in the first place. That we’re now
considering dumping the position is less about the company, more about the macro.
Amerigo Resources (ARG.to): The ARG.to webinar presentation on Wednesday afternoon
(hosted by Sidoti Events) was one pitched at either people new to the story or to the non-
specialist mining market (or both), so most of the content was nothing new to this desk or to its
esteemed audience. But it was worth tuning in just to hear CEO Aurora Davidson say these
words around minute 15: “…we expect to go back to normal in Q4.”
Western Exploration (WEX.v): Again, it’s not much compared to the drop seen in this stock
since it began public trading life, but the thin volume action in WEX last week suggests that its
low is in. We’re now waiting on the first set of drill results from its inaugural campaign and the
reason to own this stock is to speculate on the low-hanging fruit WEX has to show from the
drillbit and its most prospective targets at Aura, Gravel Creek and Doby George.
QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v): I’m now preparing myself for the “Our MRE is not ready” news
release, which may give me another good reason to dump this position and realize the loss. The
radio silence out of the company is not good.
The Copper Basket
After thirty-eight weeks of 2023, The Copper Basket shows a loss of 11.26% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Solaris Res SLS.to 6.44 146.599 721.27 4.92 -23.6%
2 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.22 92.882 376.17 4.05 25.8%
3 Western Copper WRN.to 2.41 151.597 288.03 1.90 -21.2%
4 Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to 1.92 105.96 173.77 1.64 -14.6%
5 Oroco Res OCO.v 0.91 216.13 155.61 0.72 -20.9%
6 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.78 175.554 150.98 0.86 10.3%
7 Hot Chili HCH.v 0.78 119.455 136.18 1.14 46.2%
8 Faraday Copper FDY.to 0.54 175.2 119.14 0.68 25.9%
9 Regulus Res. REG.v 1.10 124.509 103.34 0.83 -24.5%
10 Pan Global Res PGZ.v 0.46 212.395 49.91 0.235 -48.9%
11 Kodiak Copper KDK.v 1.12 56.2 33.72 0.60 -46.4%
12 QC Copper QCCU.v 0.165 162.815 23.61 0.145 -12.1%
13 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.16 106.25 16.47 0.155 -3.1%
14 Libero Copper LBC.v 0.155 119.58 4.78 0.04 -74.2%
15 Atacama Copper ACOP.v 0.16 35.94 6.47 0.18 12.5%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg -11.26%
Last week’s carnage wasn’t limited to the precious metals stocks or to our own portfolio of
Stocks to Follow, either. Two stocks of our 15
Copper Basket components managed to return a
The Copper Basket 2023, weekly evolution
12%
week-over-week gain (OCO.v, ALDE.v), the other 10%
13 were losers and while just two of those were 8%
6%
10%+ losers (PGZ.v down 19.0% and LBC.v 4%
2%
down 11.1%), there were a lot down in the 5% 0%
to 7% range and that smacks of a sector moving -2%
-4%
further out of favour. -6%
-8%
-10%
The copper stock sentiment was driven by the -12%
12
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2yluj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6gua ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3pes ht01 ht71 ht42
source: IKN calcs

copper market sentiment, with the bears in control of the industrial metals complex last week.
The biggest stomach churn came overnight as Wednesday became Thursday and on the back
of the Fed decision, Asian markets tried hard to break the price to the downside. Very
unpleasant to watch and I felt like the proverbial rabbit in the headlights of the oncoming car,
so the relief when the spike unwound didn’t last long and the Friday close at U$3.70/lb or so
means the market is still vulnerable in the days ahead.
The metals beat newswires had plenty to say
about this newly rough market, with the first
part of this snippet (5) capturing the
atmosphere as well as any other:
Copper falls to five-week low on hawkish
Fed, strong dollar, high stocks
“Industrial metals trade sharply lower
amid the outlook for higher-for-longer
rates in the United States reducing the
general risk appetite,” said Ole Hansen,
head of commodity strategy at Saxo
Bank.
The Fed’s benchmark overnight interest
rate may still be lifted one more time this
year, according to updated quarterly
projections released by the U.S. central bank, and rates kept significantly tighter
through 2024 than previously expected.
Making dollar-priced metals less attractive to holders of other currencies, the U.S.
currency index rose to an over six-month high.
Copper’s fall below the level around $8,235 also triggered technical selling,
accelerating the decline, Hansen said.
Further souring the sentiment, copper inventories in LME-registered warehouses,
which have been rising since mid-July, hit the highest level since May 2022.
As for the second part of the excerpt, we’ll come back to that inventory talk below in the usual
segment. Instead let’s move to insto market comment and this from an ING note to clients (6)
is pertinent:
China’s new home prices fell for a third month in August and at a slightly faster pace,
according to the latest government data. New home prices in 70 cities, excluding state-
subsidised housing, declined by 0.29% last month from July, when they fell 0.23%.
At the end of last month, Beijing rolled out a set of stimulus measures, reducing down-
payment requirements for homebuyers and allowing lenders to lower rates on existing
mortgages, resulting in a spurt of homebuying earlier in the month, however that is
already losing momentum.
Still, there are some signs of economic activity picking up in August. Industrial
production rose by 4.5% from a year earlier while retail sales jumped 4.6%, the latest
data show.
However, China’s recovery is still uncertain, with anything related to real estate
continuing to struggle. For copper, risks remain to the downside heading into the year’s
end on China’s uncertain outlook for the property sector. We believe commodity-
intensive stimulus is needed to support short to medium-term demand growth. We
maintain our price forecast of an average of $8,582/t in 2023.
As always, it’s all about China demand, with recent data pointing to weakness, other recent
data pointing to improvement, recent talk about prices dependent on another round of Chinese
economic stimulus. China, China and more China and the world concerned with demand. But
that’s only one side of the coin and for copper supply, one thing is the production of
concentrate from the world’s mines and another is the amount of refined copper that makes it
to end-users. With the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) publishing its September
bulletin this week with data to end July (7), it’s worth considering the ramp-up in copper
making it to the manufacturing market. Here’s a chart:
13

World refined copper production, per month
2600
2400
2200
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
14
pes 81_naJ yam pes 91_naJ yam pes 02_naJ yam pes 12_naJ yam pes 2202_naJ yam pes 32_naJ yam
source: ICSG
tm
fo
s000
Secondary
Primary
Before Covid came along, it was rare to have a month that saw 200,000mt or more of refined
copper production, with the median around 1,950mt. These days that’s at least 10% higher on
a monthly basis, with only one month in the last 12 with production under 2,200mt (Feb’23, at
2,110kmt). Meanwhile, the top three months for refined copper production come from the last
five months and 2,300kmt is quickly becoming the benchmark, July’s 2,299kmt typical of the
new level making it to market.
Let’s now return to the clues offered by the world’s copper inventory systems, starting with the
thoughts of house favourite and Reuters’ base metals correspondent Andy Home, via his note
“Copper grounded by rising exchange inventories” published on Tuesday 19th (8). It starts this
way:
LONDON, Sept 19 (Reuters) - Stocks of copper registered with the London Metal
Exchange (LME) have more than doubled in the space of two months and are now at
their highest level since May 2022.
Rising inventory over the northern hemisphere summer holidays is by no means
unusual and the rebuild is coming from a historically low base.
However, the scale of arrivals and the absence of any counter-flow suggest
seasonality is being compounded by manufacturing recession in Europe and in the
United States.
That’s the same message pushed by this desk in IKN748 last weekend and while not good news
for copper bulls (such as I), it was satisfying to see someone of Home’s standing agree with the
current house position. As his article develops, he ticks off most of the same arguments we
used in IKN748, e.g. the way cancelled warrants are now all-but zero, but as one would expect
adding his own takes and details on certain matters. Overall he sang from the same song sheet
so please click through and read his report for more, as an example we’ll just go with his final
paragraph and op-ed wrap that focused on China:
The copper stocks surge has to date been largely confined to the LME delivery system.
Total exchange stocks, including those registered with CME, the Shanghai Futures
Exchange and its bonded arm the International Energy Exchange, stand at 236,000
metric tons, which remains a low figure by historical standards and is up by only
47,000 metric tons since the start of the year.
Visible exchange inventory in China amounts to a modest 99,000 metric tons with
bonded warehouse stocks assessed by local data provider Shanghai Metal Market at a
lowly 43,000 metric tons.
Copper bulls argue that China's thin inventory cover will mean higher imports if the
country's giant manufacturing sector returns to growth.
The rapid build in LME inventory, however, suggests that any bull impetus from a
recovering China will be offset by continued demand weakness and more surplus
metal in the rest of the world.
Staying on the subject, we move seamlessly into our weekly copper inventory tracker with data,
as always, from Cochilco:
 Week three of additions to the world copper stock aggregate, but this week turned out
to be slightly different. Not only was the total addition of 8,061 metric tonnes (mt)

more modest than the previous two, but the additions were concentrated in one of the
systems. The total across the three you’ll see below comes to 240,073mt this weekend,
the tendency is still higher but not quite as bearish as the optics last weekend.
 At the Shanghai SHFE, that 10+mkt added the week before last was drawn down
almost immediately, in fact the drop of 10,981mt on the week was slightly larger than
the add we saw and commented upon in IKN748. The drop brings the total back down
to 54,165mt, still very tight but more importantly, breaking the upward trend and
making the 2023 squiggly line (see below) a closer match to the Q3 of 2022.
 However the LME continued its significant inventory additions, this week adding
19,525mt to stocks and closing the week at 162,900mt. That’s the most copper in stock
since October of 2021, though we again point to mitigation factors such as how
7,850mt of last week’s adds went to the New Orlean Roach Motel. LME warehouses
there now hold 60,325mt of the total and you can bet cash money that zero tonnes of
that stock will ever make its way to the China mainland, it’s simply too expensive to
ship that copper from there-to-there. On the bearish side, cancelled warrant tonnages
remain very low at 325mt and the comments made last week, that nobody is booking
metal out of the warehouses and demand remains flaccid, remain in place.
 The Comex lost tonnage again, a more modest 483mt to close at 23,008mt. No biggie.
Just one of the dedicated SHFE tracking charts is enough, that shows this week’s downturn
knocks the 2023 line back into the pathway seen in both 2021 and 2022 at this time of year.
SHFE copper inventory levels, 2018 to 2023
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
15
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
MT Cu 2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
source: Cochilco data
The bottom line: Negative sentiment for the copper market continued into last week and while
the short attack on the copper price post-Fed didn’t stick, there’s enough to underscore my own
hand wringing on copper in IKN748 last week. However, those looking for a silver lining can
point to SHFE as a bullish counter to the prevailing sentiment. Now for notes on a couple of
basket stocks.
Solaris Resources (SLS.to): As this is one of the stocks that could benefit from an eventual
Daniel Noboa election win bounce (in the very near-term, that is), this desk has been keeping
an extra eye on Solaris (SLS.to) in the last couple of weeks despite not mentioning its recent
drill assay NR that’s opened up a new area of Warintza to potential development, thanks to
skarn mineralization having been discovered at decent
grades. So yes, I should have mentioned the September
12th NR, “Solaris Reports 105m of 0.60% CuEq and
132m of 0.60% CuEq from Near Surface; Continued
Expansion of Warintza East and Warintza Southeast” (9)
last weekend and didn’t, but as macro sentiment for
Ecuador risk is the whole ball game at the moment, they
probably could have reported double those grades
without getting a reaction. In fact those are very
interesting grades for likely skarn material and these two
holes have opened up a new area of the larger Warintza

project for further drilling (good widths can come later, it’s the grade that matters at this point).
But once the effects of that NR had worn off SLS continued to drop in the way it’s been doing in
the run-up to the October second round run-off, finishing Friday under the C$5.00 line for the
first time since November last year (when copper prices were still in the dumpster). And as this
two-year chart shows, we’re an awful long way from the time when the market assumed
another successful Warke sale to the highest bidder was merely a matter of time.
Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.to): I don’t want to get into blow-by-blow, week-by-week
commentary of price movements in any junior
(even less one I don’t own) but this weekend you
get an update of the thoughts on ASCU as seen in
IKN748 because the reasons floated last weekend
jive with the price action we saw this week. Last
weekend we noted that between its presentation
on Thursday and the “Beaver Creek chatter from
the serious people”, ASCU was talked up and then
bought up by those hanging on their words. And
sure enough, (right), by the time Monday and
Tuesday had done their thing, the positive vibes of
the conference had been forgotten and all that
near-term ASCU good will had disappeared into
thin air.
Pan Global Resources (PGZ.v): At the end of the
update note in IKN748 last weekend, I voiced the
opinion that there’s no need to chase a PGZ price that
had seen a sharp improvement and that its price point
would be marked by its next raising, therefore seeing
the stock’s 19% reversal last week wasn’t much of a
surprise. The size and price of its raising will be an
important indicator and so we wait for them before
making any proactive decision on ownership (or even
adding to the Watch List), however along with last
week’s price drop PGZ had plenty to report to the
market and we cover that in an extended piece in
Market Watching, below.
Oroco Resources (OCO.v): On no news, not much volume and ignoring the copper price
weakness, OCO found a buyer or two on Thursday and
Friday and managed to close at its highest level since July.
Such are the mysteries of the junior market, but with the
PEA due “3q23” that leaves the company this coming week
to deliver and be on time. Even if they don’t it won’t be long
and I can only guess somebody has decided to front-run
this milestone, even though recent evidence from the
market is that any opportunity to use news as a liquidity
event is taken. We’ll see what happens with OCO and its
PEA and on paper this company is cheap but you can say
that about an awful lot of copper juniors right now.
The Producer Basket
After 38 weeks of 2023, the Producer Basket shows a loss of 0.04% to level stakes:
16

company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 47.20 799 32.55 40.74 -13.7%
2 Barrick GOLD 17.18 1761.54 27.81 15.79 -8.1%
3 Agnico Eagle AEM 51.99 488.9 23.98 49.05 -5.7%
4 Wheaton PM WPM 39.08 451.963 19.58 43.33 10.9%
5 Kinross Gold KGC 4.09 1256.1 6.26 4.98 21.8%
6 Alamos Gold AGI 10.11 393.1 4.71 11.99 18.6%
7 B2Gold BTG 3.57 1074.567 3.33 3.10 -13.2%
8 Hecla Mining GFI 5.56 610.491 2.43 3.98 -28.4%
9 Eldorado Gold EGO 8.36 185.73 1.78 9.60 14.8%
10 Wesdome Gold WDOFF 5.53 147.526 0.84 5.67 2.5%
All prices and stock quotes in U$ Port. avg -0.04%
The blood was spilled over the larger producers as well, with only Newmont (NEM) up on a
week-over-week basis, though Agnico (AEM) put in a valiant effort and closed down by just
0.1%. The other eight rode the same tide down and while the smaller caps tended to lose more
than the larger caps, the -2% (WPM) to -5.7% (HL) spread shows that money likely left via the
ETFs or for top-down macro decisions on the way the sector is shaping up, rather than for
specific company reasons. Our ten lost a little ground against the GDX benchmark as seen in
our tracking charts here, but not much and overall, things were as bad for the rest as they were
for our picks.
The 2023 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
comparative to GDX control
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
And all this in a week in which gold rose in price, as noted by the +0.2% in the main bullion
ETF (GLD). Once again the equation was Metals
> Miners. That’s been a theme all year, as seen
in this chart (right). Sad but true, gold bullion is
up on the year (and you may note, GLD is up by
a number that’s close to the underlying rate of
inflation in US Dollar world), while the GDX is
down. A damning verdict on the quality of the
companies producing precious metals, the
market is clearly telling us that the headwinds
caused by exposing your cash to the people who
get between you and direct gold ownership are
greater than the leverage or benefits you get,
despite those companies supposedly creating
their ounces of gold for well below the spot price
of the metal.
To expand on that thought a little further, here’s a chart I drew up while playing with macro
price charts and timescales earlier in the week (specifically while online and bored stupid by a
never-ending procession of dull presentations from the Tier 1 and 2 PM companies, a near-total
lack of novelties or news in their presentations at the Denver show):
17
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2yluj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6gua ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3pes ht01 ht71 ht42
The 2023 Producer Basket: Percentage difference
between GDX benchmark & basket (negative = IKN ahead)
4.0%
ikn
3.0%
gdx control
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
source: NYSE, IKN calcs ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2yluj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6gua ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3pes ht01 ht71 ht42
source: IKN calcs, NYSE data

This two year chart shows that the US Dollar Index (DXY) has out-performed gold bullion (GLD
proxy), the broad markets (SP500 proxy) and the precious metals producers (GDX proxy). In
other words, you the investor didn’t even have to buy US Treasuries that pay you interest, or
go 100% cash and money market fund in your trading portfolio, or even take out a time deposit
at your local bank and enjoy the interest rates they’re now paying to savers. The only thing you
needed to do over the last two years to out-do bullion, the markets or the gold producers was,
quite literally, to buy US Dollar bills of any denomination you care to name and stuff them
under your mattress. As sad indictment, for sure.
Newmont (NEM): Up 1% on a down week for just about any other decently-sized gold
producer out there, did CEO Tom Palmer’s speech at the Denver Gold Show manage to add
around 4% to the company’s market cap?
If you want to checkout the PDF of his presentation, that’s on this link (10) and of all the slides,
this is the one that caught my eye:
There are two things generalist analysts and insto funds like from their mining company more
18

than share buybacks or dividends:
1) Not confusing them with all that talk about mining
2) Cash generation from portfolio optimizations and merger synergies
Those are subjects they can handle, make sense of an sell to the corner offices. To translate
into normal English, “portfolio optimization” means that once the deal with NCM is done, NEM
will sell some of its newly combined non-core assets to the highest bidder such as equity
positions (and see the comment on SolGold (SOLG.to) above in Stocks to Follow for one of the
more likely moves) or projects that don’t easily move the dial of the newly sized NEM-NCM (I’m
going to guess at Coffee in the Yukon for my example here). As for “merger synergies”, that
will likely entail pink slips for Australian office workers, but the real savings are more likely to
come from supply chain efficiencies that NEM would know more about internally than I, the
grunt retail observer on the outside, could guess at
with any validity.
So the NEM appearance at Denver went down well and
CEO Palmer probably won the week from his rivals, but
overall and taking a slightly longer view (right(, what
we really probably witnessed was NEM playing catch-up
to the market as the Australian merger people green-
lighted the deal and the world got used to the idea of
NEM-NCM as Full Greek Cheese (fait accompli),
allowing the equity to make a long-overdue catch-up
move.
The TinyCaps List
After 38 weeks of 2023, the TinyCaps show a gain 21.96% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Aurelius Min AUL.v 0.07 49.787 1.00 0.02 -71.4%
Coast Copper COCO.v 0.045 64.001 3.20 0.05 11.1%
District Metals DMX.v 0.075 86.891 17.38 0.20 166.7%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.13 69.962 7.35 0.105 -19.2%
Manitou Gold MTU.v 0.02 344.568 18.95 0.055 175.0%
Nine Mile Metals NINE.cse 0.29 57.025 4.56 0.08 -72.4%
Palamina Corp PA.v 0.08 65.285 8.49 0.13 62.5%
Precipitate Gold PRG.v 0.075 130.367 7.82 0.06 -20.0%
South Star STS.v 0.55 40.129 20.87 0.52 -5.5%
Viva Gold VAU.v 0.14 106.721 13.87 0.13 -7.1%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 21.96%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $20m. They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a
little and allowed sub-U$20m market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, but it was a particularly depressing exercise to trawl through the whole of the TSXV and find companies
that are small enough, but with life in them. The vast majority of sub-$20m stocks are broken stocks, either
traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2023. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
19

TinyCaps, 2023 weekly tracker
Zero gainers among our ten component stocks, six 50%
45%
remained unchanged (AUL.v, MTU.v, PA.v, PRG.v, 40%
STS.v, VAU.v) and four were losers (COCO.v, DMX.v, 35%
30%
LMS.v, NINE.cse) and of those, the biggest losers were 25%
Coast Copper (COCO.v down 23.1%) and Latin Metals 20%
15%
(LMS.v down 12.5%). Volume was paper-thin at the 10%
tinycap end of the market and despite two of our ten 5%
0%
now suspended for trading (AUL and MTU), the basket
was still fairly representative of what’s going on (not
going on) in this sub-sector.
Palamina Corp (PA.v): The news that sister company Winshear (WINS.v) has apparently
reached agreement with counterparty the government of Tanzania on its arbitration
proceedings sent both WINS and PA into a bit of a tizzy early week, but the price action since
then in both stocks suggests that either the settlement reached isn’t as much as the market
anticipated, or that the deal is further from closing than imagined. Both WINS and PA published
NRs to address the issue on Tuesday (11) 19th and here’s most of the PA version of events,
released after the market open:
Toronto, Ontario--(Newsfile Corp. - September 19, 2023) - Palamina Corp. (TSXV: PA)
(OTCQB: PLMNF) currently holds 13,422,000 common shares and 1,321,000 warrants
in Winshear Gold Corp. (TSXV:WINS) representing an 18.5% partially diluted share
position. In February of 2023 Winshear completed arbitration proceedings against the
Tanzanian Government to recover damages for the expropriation of its SMP Gold
Deposit in Tanzania. The arbitration proceedings were held at the International Centre
for Settlement of Investment Disputes ("ICSID"), World Bank Group in Washington
D.C. On September 18, 2023 ICSID reported on its web page: The proceeding is
suspended pursuant to the parties" agreement.
Excerpt from Winshear's September 19, 2026 news release: Winshear reports that
pursuant to the Company's arbitration case against the Republic of Tanzania
("Tanzania") (see Winshear news release dated July 14, 2020), the Company and
Tanzania have suspended arbitration proceedings and have reached a conditional
settlement agreement. There is no guarantee that the conditional settlement
agreement will be concluded. The Company will report any developments as they
occur.
So “2026” typo aside, that NR was enough to stop the rampant buying we saw at the bell and
as things turned out, PA limped into the Friday close UNCH on the week. As for my two cents,
after some discrete inquiries it’s likely that the wINS settlement isn’t anywhere near the 70c and
80c per share numbers being bandied about by the more effusive end of social media at the
moment, but equally its current 25c price probably
leaves meat on the bone for those willing to take a
high risk for a quick potential reward. WINS will have
legal beagles to pay (on a win=fee deal that will
make the lawyers’ time well worth their effort) and
there’s also a likelihood that the dela involved staged
payments (so it’s anyone’s guess as to whether
Tanzania makes all the stages in good faith), but the
best guess is a WINS worth perhaps 35c/share
realistically if things go well. In turn, that makes the
PA 18.5% holding of the company worth more than
its Friday close and with Palamina likely to be more
active in the real work of exploration in the near
future, my personal preference for those considering this arb trade would be to buy PA over
WINS and get a company that will make good use of its windfall cash.
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future
I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
20
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2yluj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6gua ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3pes ht01 ht71 ht42
source: IKN calcs, TSX data

Regional politics
El Salvador and a Presidential election and mining
Three ingredients, then some expansion on the subject
 El Salvador’s next Presidential election is coming up in the near future, the vote
scheduled for February 4th 2024 (i.e. less than five months from now)
 Sitting President Nayib Bukele is ineligible for re-election, but shows every intention
of changing the law/constitution to allow him to run again. Assuming he can do that,
he’s a shoo-in to win.
 There has been plenty of talk of Bukele changing the 2017 law that banned mining
in the country. His win would open the door to mining returning to El Salvador.
First the background on President Nayib Armando Bukele Ortez, just 42 years old and one of
the most popular Presidents ever elected in any Latin Ameican country, let alone Central
America or El Salvador. It depends on opinion pollster you prefer but his approval rating is at
least 75% and is normally measured in the 80% to 90% range. He’s a hard right winger, has
plenty of charisma, a proponent of free market economics and (in)famously made Bitcoin legal
tender in El Salvador, but his amazing popularity is less about any of those and more about his
crackdown on gangs and violence in the country. This is an impressive chart:
Even though the sky-high murder rate of 2015 had already started to tumble by the time
Bukele came to power in mid-2019, it’s his ultra-hardline policies against gangs that have
turned El Salvador into one of the safest regional countries in just one period of office. That
register of 7.8 per 100,000 inhabitants last year was already good, 2023 is even better as noted
here (12), El Salvador’s homicide rate in 2023 is 0.40 per day or 2.3 murders per 100,000
inhabitants. In 2022, the Salvadoran murder rate was 1.4 per day or 7.8 homicides per 100,000
inhabitants.”
Even though those rates do not include the deaths of gang members in confrontations with
police (120 in 2022, 32 in 2023) they are extremely impressive and it’s no surprise that Bukele
is now feted as a hero in the country. That brings us to our second point as even though he’s
ineligible according to the law, Bukele has already announced himself a candidate for the
February 2024 election and it seems as though it’s merely a case of “how”, rather than
“whether” its executive and legislature will change the law to allow him to run again (it is a
Central America TPLAC, after all*).
Which moves us to point three, as there has been talk all year of Bukele having something akin
to “informal talks” with the country’s mining sector. These rumours have been doing the rounds
on environmental websites such as Mongabay since February but recently it’s been starting to
feature in El Salvador press as the election talk cranks up and this report dated Thursday 21st
(13) was enough to get me to make first mention of the issue this weekend. It’s an interview
with a pair of politicos going into the election as a loose coalition and opponents to Bukele.
They’re obviously railing against his plans to change the law (if he’s barred, they’ll have a real
chance of winning instead of virtually zero) and part of their strategy is to stir up public opinion
21

on his rumoured plans to bring mining back to El Salvador. It also just so happens that one of
the two was a lawyer for the State of El Salvador in its battle against Pacific Rim, after El
Salvador cancelled the permits for its controversial flagship El Dorado project in the country. El
Salvador won that legal battle in the ICSID/CIADI international tribunals.
The interview is long and covers a lot of domestic policy issues that are unrelated to mining, so
I’m going to keep it on-point and excerpt one section (author translates) from early in the note
that gives a reasonable flavour of our chosen subject and the lawyer/candidate in question:
“Luis Alberto Parada Fuentes is an ex-army captain in the El Salvador armed forces
who was educated in colleges in The USA, where he obtained a doctorate degree in
law. In 2016 he became famous in El Salvador for leading the team of lawyers that
won the international suit against the Pacific Rim Mining Company (now OceanaGold).
After that case, Parada says that he’s followed the issue of mining in the country
closely and due to this, is concerned that the Bukele Government has been in
negotiations with mining companies and that eventually, it intends to reverse the law
that prohibits metals mining in the country.”
Then there’s the sub-header of the interview, a quote from Señor Parada:
“If re-elected, the Bukele government plans to allow metals mining (to go ahead) and
we will not allow this suicidal policy in El Salvador.”
That’s just his opinion, of course. So the issue is set to be part of the upcoming election
campaign, but as Bukele enjoys such high approval ratings if he’s the candidate he could almost
certainly include it in his government’s manifesto and rightfully claim a mandate to move
forward on mining if/when he’s re-elected in a landslide.
Which brings us to the opportunity afforded by an El Salvador that may about to re-open for
the formal mining sector next year. This map from this link (14) show the main geological zone
of interest, an approx 20km wide zone
that runs the length of the country
(from its NW border with Guatemala to
it SW border with Honduras) prosaically
called “The Gold Belt of El Salvador”. It
contains the aforementioned Dorado
project, still owned by OceanaGold and
with a 43-101 compliant M+I resource
of around 1.43m oz grading a very
interesting 10.4 g/t AuEq (gold and
silver), with another 300k oz inferred.
That’s a potentially good mine, but as
OceanaGold (OGC.to) these days is a
big, billion-plus market capper it’s not
the company to give the prospective
retail speculator much leverage.
Apart from OGC at Dorado there’s very little in the way of junior mining or exploreco action in El
Salvador, largely due to that blanket ban on mining in the country. We should therefore be on
the look-out for companies that do their own speculation on the back of a potential change in
country policy, as explorecos quick and nimble enough to stake, option or purchase the more
prospective ground along that belt may be able to pick up a world-class asset for peanuts and
do wonders for their share price and market cap.
*In deference to my old Geography at school, TPLAC = Tin Pot Lil American/African Country
Argentina: One month to go
We covered most of what the outsider needs to know about the October 22nd Presidential
election in IKN748 last weekend, in “Milei with momentum”, but there are a couple of things to
add:
22

1) Check out this link (15) as one of Argentina’s most traditional biz news channels, El Cronista,
has a useful dedicated page at which you can check out the last eight poll results on its
interactive visual (nicely done) as well as this, its own blend “poll of polls” of the eight latest
results:
As noted last week, Javier Milei holds the lead and government candidate Sergio Massa is
currently projected to make the coveted second spot and the run-off in November.
2) It’s more talk than anything solid, but in the last few days the chattering classes and political
commentators of all ideological stripes have made a number of observations about Milei’s voter
intention softening somewhat. The line of reasoning is that the more the country sees of this
maverick candidate (and his rather questionable non-public life), the less they like the idea of
rolling the dice on putting him in as President. At this point, this is only a rumble and with a
month to go for the vote, if the talk holds water we’ll see it reflected in polling results as the
campaign gets to the sharp end. For what it’s worth, I don’t find the talk hard to believe and
while still calling him the obvious favourite, I still won’t go as far as the average commentator
and blithely assume he wins in November. This is Argentina, anything can happen and often
does.
Peru: Perumin starts tomorrow
Starting tomorrow Monday September 25th and running to Thursday (though the final day tends
to be a damp squib), it’s traditional host and Peru’s second largest city, Arequipa, plays host to
“Perumin 36” (16), the normally biannual trade fair and mining conference that’s considered the
biggest mining gig in Latin America when held. Due to Covid, Perumin 35 was delayed until last
year and therefore this renewal comes more quickly than normal, but there’s still a full house
expected even though the event doesn’t really come up on the radar of the North American
mining world.
Its size is mostly due to it being the largest regional trade fair and mining supplies companies
always make good use of Peru and book plenty of sales. Meanwhile, the conference end of
Perumin mostly features regional mining and political bigwigs. Peru’s government and mining C-
suites will be out in force of course, but Perumin also sees foreign dignitaries such as Chile’s
Vice Minister of Mining and a large delegation from LatAm’s most willing partner in mining these
days, China (150 of the 800 companies with stands at the trade fair are from China according
to the organizers).
Market Watching
A molybdenum market update
Back in IKN740, we noted a study out of Chile’s Cochilco that commented on the price pop/drop
of one of the country’s most important credit metals, molybdenum. The report contended that
despite the reversal of prices, the market for moly was in good shape and demand from China
23

looked set to keep prices from dropping any further. Here’s a quote from the IKN740 note:
“…in 3q22 China became a net importer of moly for the first time in recent history”
and as that “…trend is set to continue, the market now has another reason to expect
price support for moly.”
We also ran a 12 month chart of the metal’s spot price (there’s an LME contract these days)
sourced from the useful website Trading Economics (17) and here’s the updated version, with
IKN740 marked and where we are today
And indeed, the Cochilco call is holding up and, so far at least, demand for the metal used
mostly in steelmaking has remained solid. This bodes well for cost inputs for copper miners that
have moly as a useful by-product credit.
Pan Global Resources (PGZ.v): 2q23 financials and Romana West drill assays
Main feature in IKN747 and with a follow-up note last week, we still don’t own any Pan Global
Resources (PGZ.v) for reasons outlined in those articles, but as four of the five working days
last week brought news and events on this company we’re going to run one more coverage
note before settling back and leaving PGZ on the radar. First stop is last Tuesday September
19th, which saw PGZ.v publish this NR (18) entitled “PAN GLOBAL ONGOING DRILLING
EXTENDS STRIKE OF LA ROMANA NEAR-SURFACE COPPER-TIN-SILVER MINERALIZATION TO
1.35 KILOMETERS” and those are the company’s all-caps, not mine
These assays are decent and in the 0.2% copper grade shell, will mine well enough assuming
strip isn't prohibitive, but they are inferior to the assays obtained during the more extensive
drilling fence run on La Romana to the East (around 160 holes). We've already referenced the
visuals from the latest corporate presentation in IKN747 so no repeats here (please check the
previous write up or for more information and visuals, download your copy of the presentation
from here (19), instead a brief reminder of some of the grades from the La Romana highlight
24

holes including:
 LRD-02: 20.55m of 1.05% copper, along with 0.11% tin and 4.7 g/t silver kickers
 LRD-17: 24.4m of 0.7% Cu, 0.07% Sn, 3.7 g/t Ag
 LRD-20: 26.5m of 0.9% Cu, 0.11% Sn, 2.3 g/t Ag
 LRD-40: 52.6m of 0.8% Cu, 0.05% Sn, 3.8 g/t Ag
Those assays are selected as examples because they were good ones, but also because they
came from the sweet spot of the La Romana gravity target as seen on this drill map, the rough
equivalent to the sweet spot targeted at Romana West by the current program. Therefore, and
given the location of this new batch of assays such as...
 LRD162: 17m of 0.3% Cu (plus kickers)
 LRD164: 16m of 0.52% Cu (plus kickers)
 LRD166: 14.5m of 0.36% Cu (plus kickers)
...from Romana West as seen in the visual above, there's less width and a clear drop in grade
so far at least. The takeaway is "reasonable not
great" from the news Tuesday and that
reflected in the way PGZ shares traded that
day, down 15% at the opening bell with 80k of
the 100k shares traded that day dumped into
the bid, but then managing to clamber back to
UNCH by the close on thin trading. And before
leaving the subject, this visual (right) was part
of the NR and shows the “Section A” from the
above panoramic view. Your author has
scribbled a little blue on the section map to
highlight the way early drill results will often
include “optimized interpretation”. There’s
nothing inherently wrong in this, but it’s a
reminder of how one shouldn’t trust inferred
resources and also how this target will
eventually need to same type of drill fencing as we’ve seen over at the main part of Romana
before a reasonable resource is generated.
We move on. The next day Wednesday saw CEO Moody present in another live webinar with
Q&A to discuss these first six Romana West drill assay results, the recording is here (20). They
didn’t dwell much on the lower grade of the holes so far, instead we got the corporate opinion
that grade looked set to increase again as this initial program steps out to the West. With six
holes reported and seven currently in the assay labs waiting on results, it means PGZ has
completed just over half the programmed 25 hole program and these shallow holes (none over
200m) should be completed and reported by the end of the year, so it won’t take long to find
out if their theory of better grade to the West works out. Also, it was interesting to hear from
CEO Moody that the company will stop calling the target zone “Romana West” as it now
understands it as one long 1.35km resource. From now on (or perhaps 2024 onward) it’s all
going to be simply “Romana”. The other point of interest from the webinar is PGZ’s rising
interest in Cañada Honda, which confirmed the impression gathered before (and noted last
week), as they’re already planning the next drill program there.
Next up, we cover the other NR from PGZ last week, which came on Thursday (21) with the
title “PAN GLOBAL ANNOUNCES FIRST ESG REPORT” (we again go with the company’s
apparent preference for all-caps…somebody needs to tell them). When it comes to explorecos
and junior mining projects, these ESG initiatives are normally unremarkable and not something
this desk is overly concerned about either way, not least because any eventual acquirer will
have their own agenda and ESG/CSR policies that would immediately take over on acquisition.
However in this case I think it’s a good thing, as we know Spain and the EU are hot on such
matters and they’re also keen on moving forward on their own production of the newly
25

categorized “critical metal”, copper. Anything that keeps PGZ at Escacena in the governmental
good books at this stage is all right by me and therefore this ESG is the exception that proves
the rule and may have added value to the project and the company.
Our final stop on this unexpectedly long PGZ update is to note that on Friday the company filed
its 2q23 financials and MD&A to SEDAR. There were no surprises, in fact we got our cash burn
and overall balance sheet guesstimates very close to reality, so just a handful of tracking charts
and the briefest of commentaries will do:
PGZ.v: Assets
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Assets and liabilities once combined came in largely as expected. The cash burn was about
$400k quicker than our guess, but on the other hand trade payables dropped by about $200k
more than our guess. As the P+L expenses chart shows, it wasn’t too difficult to make a guess
on burn rate and sure enough, PGZ kept its spend regular.
The result is a working cap number less than $200k from our estimate, at C$2.861m. Not only
is that as close as dammit is to swearing, it means our assumption that PGZ is about to go to
market and top up treasury via an equity placement remains as per, only time will tell whether
our C$10m proceeds guess for that is correct or not. For the time being, we’ll keep our pitch of
250m shares out by the time the next placement closes, reality will tell us otherwise later.
26
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 tse32q3
$m fixed PGZ.v: Liabilities per qtr
other current 2.2
cash 2
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
source: company filings
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 tse32q3
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
LT liabs
current liabs
PGZ.v: Admin expenses
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2
20 PGZ.v: Working Capital per qtr
C$m other exp 18
share payments 16
IR 14
mgmt fee
12 office/rent
10
Exp&Eval
8
6
4
2
0
-2
source: company filings
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 tse32q3
source company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
PGZ.v: Shares Out
134.351 109.651
180.981 487.391 101.302 315.502 541.212 541.212 541.212 593.212 593.212 052 052
300
275
250
225
200
175
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
source: company filings
serahs
fo
snoillim

Revival Gold (RVG.v redux and its price drop
After mail received between IKN748 and today, it’s only fair to add this brief update. Mentioned
last week as one of the stand-outs from the Beaver Creek show, Revival Gold (RVG.v)
underscored my opinion that there’s no need to rush to a conclusion on any potential trade by
doing this last week:
That 44c close isn’t quite as low as it got after the Pan American Silver (PAAS) dumps onto the
market earlier this year, but it’s close and the lack of buyers for this or nearly any other
exploreco gold story at the moment is palpable. Not a bad thing, it will allow your author time
to get a better handle on this stock and its potential before making any real decision. I was
pleased to receive the mail that I did from two longs in RVG, not least because both of them
are people known to this desk as experienced and smart judges of junior mining companies. So
it’s good to be in potentially good company, but please don’t hold your breath for my call on
this stock, as this company and its resource/project is known to the market and there are no
surprises baked into the stock price, the entire market sentiment has to change for the better
before it becomes a valid speculation on gold.
Conclusion
IKN749 is done, we end with some bullet points:
 Want a simple trade option? Buy Equinox on this dip, it won’t last long.
 However, the deteriorating macro backdrop has me worried enough to want to raise
cash and ride out the rest of 2023 with less exposure to the riskiest end of the juniors
market. And if EQX rallies enough I may end up selling it for a modest profit.
 Copper is the most concern, so it’s the place I’d reduce most exposure if the coming
week gives me enough reason to get chicken.
 El Salvador. Who’d have guessed that as the potential new happy hunting ground for
the mining industry in 2024? Could well happen.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stock is Minera Alamos (MAI.v). Flash
updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best wishes, Mark
27

Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://www.equinoxgold.com/news/equinox-gold-announces-bought-deal-offering-of-convertible-senior-notes/
(2) https://www.equinoxgold.com/news/equinox-gold-completes-172-5-million-convertible-senior-notes-bought-deal-
offering/
(3) https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2023/09/21/2746934/0/en/Fortuna-completes-acquisition-of-Chesser-
Resources-strengthening-its-presence-in-West-Africa.html
(4) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=34Y6Ddda19s
(5) https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/copper-falls-to-five-week-low-on-hawkish-fed-strong-dollar-high-stocks/
(6) https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/copper-prices-slump-as-lme-stocks-continue-to-pile-up/
(7) https://icsg.org/press-releases/
(8) https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/copper-grounded-by-rising-exchange-inventories-2023-09-19/?s=09
(9) https://solarisresources.com/news/press-releases/solaris-reports-105m-of-060-cueq-and-132m-of-060-cueq-from-
near-surface-continued-expansion-of-warintza-east-and-warintza-southeast
(10) https://t.co/kwNFtAEql4
(11) https://www.newsfilecorp.com/release/181123/Palamina-Comments-on-Winshear-Gold-Corp.-Share-Movement
(12) https://elsalvadorinfo.net/homicide-rate-in-el-salvador/
(13) https://gatoencerrado.news/2023/09/21/gobierno-de-bukele-planea-si-se-reelige-permitir-mineria/
(14) https://www.canadianminingjournal.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/El-Salvador-gold-belt.jpg
(15) https://www.cronista.com/economia-politica/a-un-mes-de-las-elecciones-7-encuestas-y-5-analistas-pronostican-
quien-llega-mejor/
(16) https://perumin.com/perumin36/public/es
(17) https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/molybden
(18) https://www.panglobalresources.com/news/pan-global-ongoing-drilling-extends-strike-of-la-romana-near-surface-
copper-tin-silver-mineralization-to-1-35-kilometers
(19) https://uploads-ssl.webflow.com/63e904921eb4adc55bebeffb/64de9c23fe537c8d5bec8c0c_2023-08-
16_Pan%20Global%20Resources_Corporate%20Presentation_FINAL.pdf
(20) https://www.panglobalresources.com/news/pan-global-announces-first-esg-report
(21) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0C_PtBBxuZ0
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2022
Closed in 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
Goldshore Res GSHR.v Nov'22 C$0.18 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 88.9% Quick profit taken
Palamina Corp PA.v Dec'22 C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.08 -72.9% Clear-out of underperformer
Pure Gold PGM.h Dec'22 C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.015 -89.3% tiny trade on vh risk, went Ch11
28

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Set-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
29

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
30

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
31