IKN #748Premium

The IKN Weekly
Week 748, September 17th 2023
Contents
This Week: In Today’s Edition, Beaver Creek A-to-Z, Denver Gold Show and FOMC.
Fundamental Analysis: Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) and another production hiccup.
Stocks to Follow: Minera Alamos (MAI.v), Equinox Gold (EQX), Fortuna Silver (FSM),
Contango ORE (CTGO), AbraSilver Resource Corp (ABRA.v), Western Exploration (WEX.v), QC
Copper & Gold (QCCU.v), Surge Copper (SURG.v).
The Copper Basket: Overview, Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.to), Atacama Copper (ACOP.v),
Element 29 (ECU.v).
Producer Basket: Overview.
The TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Coast Copper (COCO.v).
Regional Politics: Ecuador: The CONAIE cleavage point, Argentina: Trade balances in mining,
Argentina: Milei with momentum.
Market Watching: Pan Global Resources (PGZ.v): Additional thoughts, Another Provenance
Gold (PAU.cse) update, SilverCrest (SILV) (SIL.to) continues to lag the field.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
In Today’s Edition
 Copper has been on my mind all week, due to its price performance as much as my
own exposure to the metal. In The Copper Basket we chew over the latest data that
points to weakness in its major market, China. Not jumping to conclusions and the
bullish long-term outlook for demand compared to its clear supply growth bottleneck
hasn’t changed. However, it’s right to pay heed to what’s happening in 2023 as well as
if we get a period of demand weakness, the spot price will drop no matter what the
market looks like in 2025 or beyond.
 The other aspect is my own exposure, mostly via the main trade of Amerigo Resources
(ARG.to) which announced another production issue early last week. The market took
the news largely in its stride and the company made it clear that its juicy dividend isn’t
in doubt, but a look at the numbers in light of this recent glitch shows financial
weakness beginning to show. That’s today’s main Fundies piece.
 Away from copper, the Beaver Creek conference last week showcased plenty of
exploreco stories and after spending time trawling through both known and unknown,
one story stood out for this desk. No pressing or immediate need to dive in and buy,
but Revival Gold (RVG.v) has the right combo and market circumstances have pushed
the stock down to deeply discounted levels
 In the Regional Politics, we’ve been watching the Ecuador Presidential election unfold
fairly closely, as a win for Daniel Noboa on October 15th would offer a clear fliptrade
opportunity, while a win for Lucia González would go down badly. This week we go
more deeply into the weeds and report some of the he-said-she-said verbal jousting
that’s been going on between the candidates and the potential kingmaker, Leonidas Iza
of CONAIE and of course, we lay out the potential importance of all this campaign
1

bickering to the mining sector.
Beaver Creek A-to-Z
I’ve left links to a couple of the specific presentations, but let’s leave this one at the top of the
shop today (A) and also here, for those of you too lazy to scroll:
https://www.gowebcasting.com/conferences/2023/09/12/precious-metals-summit
That takes you to the menu page for all the presentation slots as seen at Beaver Creek this
week and there are dozens of companies and talks to consider, laid out A-to-Z. And another
good reason to save/use the link is that nearly all the companies also offer a link to their latest
corporate presentation PDF on the same page, i.e. the slideshow they used for their audiences
at the conference.
Denver Gold Show and FOMC
Two dates for your diary this week, esteemed subscribers:
1) It’s real title is “Gold Forum Americas/XPL-DEV 2023”, we all know it as the Denver Gold
Show and one of the two or three occasions when nearly all the majors and larger precious
metals producers gather together for fun and frolics (1). Expect Mark Bristow to show up on
Bloomberg, expect Randy Smallwood to tell us about the great leverage silver offers compared
to gold and how we don’t know when it will move “but when it does…”, expect Keith Neumeyer
to predict stupid numbers for both gold and silver…though perhaps not gold this time around,
what with his billion dollar loss at Jerritt Canyon. More seriously, the Denver show has a
tendency to bring deal flow and even M&A news, it’s several times more important than the
Beaver Creek gig last week and your author will be paying close attention after paying his
U$130 access-all-areas virtual conference ticket. We may also get more on the now pending
closure of the mega Newmont/Newcrest merger, so Tom Palmer’s presentation speech is likely
to be standing room only.
2) Denver kicks off tomorrow and really gets into gear on Tuesday, meanwhile the Federal
Reserve FOMC meeting starts Tuesday (2) and culminates Wednesday with its normal round of
disclosures, including the policy communiqué at 2pm ET and the Jay Powell presser half an hour
later. We’re unlikely to get any shift in rates this time (we skip skip, instead of merely skip) and
all eyes and ears will be on the changes in wording and then any clue Mr- Powell gives about
forward policy. Frankly, anything other than “we’re data driven” would be a major surprise.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) and another production hiccup
It’s our main copper trade and, even after reducing the position by a little earlier in the year to
raise funds for other purchases (e.g. Equinox EQX), your author’s largest position after the Top
Pick Minera Alamos (MAI.v) so what happens at Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) matters to The
IKN Weekly and to the personal portfolio. When in late June the company got hit by a storm
that knocked out infrastructure at its MVC production facility in Chile (as well as the larger
region around it, even big operations such as Codelco’s El Teniente mine weren’t immune) it
was a blow to our 2023 plans. However, this is mining and s…such things happen (as they don’t
say in the US Marines). At the time, we noted how ARG was in good financial shape despite the
setback and what’s more, had enough financial flexibility and resources to take advantage of
adversity, change up its plans and bring forward the upgrades it had planned for its energy
supply infrastructure. ARG managed to use the power downtime to replace its old power line
system, something it would have needed to do in the future anyway, thereby baking efficiency
into its future.
All well and good. The interruption was a blow to late Q2 and early Q3 production but with the
issue behind the company, production back to normal and the balance sheet healthy enough to
absorb the event without much of a problem it didn’t affect our overall trade or attitude toward
this good little copper producer. Then came last week and this NR (3), dated Monday
2

September 11th and entitled “Amerigo Provides Q3-2023 Production Update”, with the three
sub-headers covering most of the need-to-know:
 Additional historic rains in central Chile have negatively impacted MVC operations
 Q3-2023 production is currently expected to be 2.7 M lbs lower than the revised plan
 Amerigo’s Capital Return Strategy remains in place
Not the way I’d planned to start the week Oscar Wilde’s Lady Bracknell quote, “To lose on
parent may be regard as a misfortune…” came to mind. The NR goes into detail and to its
credit, the company did its to be transparent and give the chronology of events, including the
recovery from the major storm and the return to production. Then, along with the quipped
“When it rains it pours”, CEO Aurora Davidson explained how subsequent heavy rains have
meant that ARG had to use its pumping equipment “to remove water from Cauquenes rather
than provide historic tailings to the concentrator.” As the ten-day price chart (right) shows, the
market wasn’t in the mood ro punish ARG for a new spot of bad weather and while there was
some weakness compared to the average copper producer, it could have been a lot worse. That
may be testament to the good will built up among
shareholders by this company’s excellent
management team, it may be because this new
weather event is also seen as a one-time negative,
but whatever the reason we did see ARG hand in
there and even return a week-over-week gain.
So to last week’s new and during this new period of
inclement weather, the fresh tailings feed from El
Teniente (DET) has continued as normal but clearly,
the drop in front-end supply from the tailings would
affect production this quarter. CEO Davidson made
sure her comments ended on a positive note to
underscore that “the Company’s return of capital
strategy remains in place” and that means the C$0.03/qtr dividend is intact, but a production
hit is a production hit and means Q3 is going to be a weak quarter. Now for a final and more
extensive quote from the NR with the numerical details, before we get down to business:
On July 22, 2023, MVC resumed normal operations processing fresh and historic Cauquenes
tailings. As a result of this flooding event, MVC reduced its annual copper production guidance
by 3% to 60.5 million pounds (“M lbs”), of which 13.8 M lbs were expected to be produced in
Q3-2023 and 16.6 M lbs in Q4-2023. Recently, heavy and sustained rainfall has precluded
MVC’s ability to process historical tailings from Cauquenes and necessitated all pumping
equipment be utilized to remove water from Cauquenes rather than provide historic tailings to
the concentrator. Concurrently, MVC has continued to process fresh tailings from El Teniente.
As a result of these massive rains, Q3-2023 copper production is now expected to be
approximately 2.7 M lbs lower than the estimate set out in the Company’s revised plan
following the successful grid reconnection at MVC on July 22. Because the rainy season at
MVC typically ends in mid-September, the Company is currently maintaining its revised target
of 16.5 M lbs for Q4-2023.
What that means: Our basic copper sales tracking chart (below). As you can see, these days
production North of 16m lbs Cu/qtr is typical for the company, except in its Q2 period when it
goes through its brief annual shutdown period for maintenance work (coinciding with El
Teniente’s (DET) own maintenance pause, supplier of its fresh tailing feed). Originally, we had
forecast that sort of number for 3q23, but that was cut to 13.7m lbs by the guidance update
once the major storms effects had been reported by the company.
ARG.to: Copper sales
3
28.11 7.31 29.41 9.51 11.51 31.51 9.61 298.61 92.61 68.41 81.61 97.61 94.61 966.31
1.11
5.61
20
18
16
14
12
10 8
6
4
2
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
source: company filings
rtq/uC
sblM

Now that 3q23 number is guided to around 11.1m lbs copper and to put that into historical
context, the production number ARG is about to report to the market will be the lowest since it
undertook the first stages of its production expansion program way back in 2016. It’s going to
be even worse than the Covid Quarter, 1q20:
26 ARG.to: Copper sales
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
11q1 11q3 21q1 21q3 31q1 31q3 41q1 41q3 51q1 51q3 61q1 61q3 71q1 71q3 81q1 81q3 91q1 91q3 02q1 02q3 12q1 12q3 22q1 22q3 32q1 tse32q3
source: company filings
rtq/uC
sblM
Along with that, even though the molybdenum by-product credit is not and will never be the
reason to invest in ARG, we also note that most of its moly production comes from reprocessing
the historical tailings feed, rather than the fresh feed from DET, so overall revenues will take
another small hit from that angle. The good news is that ARG believes this issue is a(nother?)
one-off and won’t affect 4q23, so guidance of 16.5m lbs Cu remains in place. Therefore with
copper prices now assumed at U$3.80/lb average to the end of the year (below left), we now
estimate gross copper value at U$42.2m for 3q23 (below right), with things bouncing back to
normal at U$6.27m for 4q23
ARG: Average Cu price for MVC
That’s significantly lower than our previously adjusted guidance as seen in IKN742 dated
August 6th 2023, when we crunched the numbers on its 2q23 financials. The charges to that
gross value number will be somewhat lower than previously forecast, with the main drop see in
the royalty pays to DET (less production, less payment…normal) and that shows in the charges
tracking chart below left. After that, we guesstimate a new credit number of U$2m for moly in
the quarter (below right), but…
…but but! BUT!!, this brings in a potential credit to Q3 that may show. Those of you watching
closely may remember how the ARG moly credit in Q2 was unusually low compared to the
80.4 44.4 32.4 23.4 46.4 01.4 05.3 08.3 20.4 08.3 08.3 08.3
5
4
3
2
1
0
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
U$/lb Cu ARG: Cu gross value, per qtr
source: Company data/IKN ests
1.85 6.66 0.27 6.27 8.37 7.36 8.65 1.16 8.66 8.25
2.24
7.26
80
70
60
50
40 30
20
10
0
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
U$m
source: company filings, IKN ests
ARG: Charges to Cu revs
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
U$m Transport ARG: Mo credits
smelting/refining
DET royalties
source: company filings, IKN ests
605.3
267.4 116.5 822.4
683.3 142.2 294.3
149.5
930.8
958.2
2
2.5
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
U$m
source: company filings, IKN ests

quantity sold and the average price fetched. This may (and it’s only a “may”) mean ARG has
some revenue to bring forward from Q3 for this credit and potentially bolster revenues. We’ll
only find this out when the company reports its quarter and that won’t be until November and
unsurprisingly, I’m not going to assume any surprise upside. However, if revenues eventually
surprise to the upside in Q3 it may be due to this. A small point, but one worth laying out.
Put all the above together and this is our new forecast revenues for Q3 and Q4:
ARG: Gross Cu value, Cu revs and Revs total, per qtr
5
797.37
904.97
567.35 766.36 818.55
485.33
457.65 879.74
858.03
241.16 729.56 548.94 897.66 2.07 846.25 8.25 882.94
630.23
2.24 2.24
5.62 7.26 7.26
2.24
90
80
70
60
50
40 30
20
10
0
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
U$m Cu gross value
Cu revs
Revs total
source: company filings
With copper now apparently in flat line mode, we don’t expect much quarterly adjustments
from previous reported quarters and we estimate “gross value” and “Cu revs” as one and the
same. Therefore “Cu Revs” minus “Charges plus “Mo Credits” = U$26.5m for 3q23 and
U$42.2m for 4q23, our new estimates for top line revenues on the P+L. Be clear, these are
significantly lower than the estimates made in IKN742 (bold types and underlined for a
reason) and the last time we considered ARG going forward:
 In the case of 4q23, the estimate drops by U$4.84m from our previous U$47.04m. It’s
affected by a) the drop in copper price estimates from U$4.00/lb to U$3.80/lb and b) the
lack of positive price adjustment that would entail from previous quarters.
 But the big hit comes sooner. In the case of 3q23, our estimate drops by a cool U$16.1m
from our previous U$42.6m. It’s affected by a) the drop in copper price estimates from
U$3.900/lb to U$3.80/lb and b) the lack of positive price adjustment that would entail from
previous quarters, but mostly from the lower copper (and moly) production and sales.
What does that do to our P+L model? Here we go, starting with the gross profit forecast:
ARG.to: Quarterly Earnings overview
624.12
616.1
655.3-
738.8
874.31
503.3-
5.7-
2.5
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
source: company filings
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revenues
COGS
Gross profit
What matters most is 3q23: With revenues set to drop as low as our forecast U$26.5m and a
large proportion of costs fixed, we expect a gross mine loss of U$7.5m for the quarter. As long
as ARG gets out of its production hole as expected in Q4, that reverts and we forecast a
U$5.2m gross profit for the last quarter of 2023. Once again, we mention that Q3 may not
come in quite as badly as that if ARG has some extra moly revenue up its sleeve, they may find
an extra cost corner or two to cut as well, but whatever happens we’re in for a losing quarter
when the company files. That mine loss is estimated to convert into a U$9.0m operating loss

and while the bottom line net number is a tougher call due to non-op financial effects that are
often one-time and not the best yardstick to judge the relative performance of ARG, we ballpark
that at negative U$9.5m.
ARG.to: Gross, operating and net profits, per qtr
6
10.12
74.1- 41.5- 10.1-
44.31
72.3-
0.9-
6.3
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
U$m Gross profit
op profit
Net Income
source: ARG data
As for 4q23, we expect an operating profit of U$3.6m,
assuming ARG is as good as its word and gets back on
track. No reason why it shouldn’t. To underscore those
forecasts, this chart right isolates the same operating
earnings data as seen above to make it all easier on the
eye. We remind readers that the three quarters of 2022
with negatives were affected by the price adjustments
to previous top-line revenues as copper spot prices
dropped. This time, the effects of copper will be
minimal and the loss is a real one.
As for the “real world” effects on the financials and company treasury, this is the tracking chart
that backs out the non-cash items and shows the margin ARG is running in hard dollars. Even in
the storm-affected 2q23 it managed to remain in the black on this and that helped in keeping
the balance sheet in good shape, allowing ARG to comfortably fund those sudden decision
capex items that upgraded its power infrastructure. However this time, ARG is going to suffer a
real cash loss on the quarter and that’s not good.
ARG: The real world margin
33.21 97.71 24.02 93.22 79.61 15.22 49.52
95.3 20.0-
57.51 34.81 67.1
4.4-
6.8
30
25
20
15 10
5
0
-5
-10
02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
ARG.to: operating profit
U$m
source: ARG data, IKN calcs and ests
Once again, we look for improvement in 4q23, assuming the current average U$3.80/lb copper
price remains in place. Now move to the forecast effects on the balance sheet and it’s here
9.4- 3.3-
1.8 4.31 0.61 1.81
6.21
5.71
0.12
5.1- 1.5- 0.1-
4.31
3.3-
0.9-
6.3
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5 -10
-15
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
$m
source: company filings
ARG.to: Total Assets
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
source: company filings
srallod
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snoillim
ARG.to: Liabilities Breakdown per qtr
200
cash&eq Trade/Rec Inventory other current 180
fixed 160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
source: company filings
srallod
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LT liab
current liab

things get a little sticky. The overview charts (above) don’t look too bad, as most of the asset
value at ARG is property and machinery and its liabilities are predicted to stay under control.
It’s when we separate the cash and currents to consider corporate liquidity that things don’t
look so great:
ARG.to: Cash and ST
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Cash stood at U$31.675m as at end 2q23, that’s close to the bottom end of the comfort range
for treasury and means CEO Davidson will have
better things to do than buying back any more
shares for the next few months. We underscore
that with the adjusted shares out chart (right) that
now assumes there are no further repurchases
under the current NCIB facility between now and
the end of the year (though we should expect ARG
to renew the facility when it expires in November).
But to return to the treasury issues we forecast that
to drop further to U$28m as at end September,
with a tepid recovery to U$29m by the end of the
year. ARG stated in its NR last week that the 3c/qtr
dividend wasn’t in danger and I believe them fully on that, as there would be hell to pay if they
withdrew it at this stage. What was more concerning was this phrase used by CEO Davidson:
“Although the operational conditions have been unprecedented, other offsetting
factors, such as a stronger U.S. dollar against the Chilean peso and the Company’s
untapped $15 million working capital line of credit, allow us to reaffirm that the
Company’s return of capital strategy remains in place.”
True the benign forex will be a small help, but even mentioning that untapped line of credit
shows the potential liquidity problem now facing ARG and it’s not going to go away immediately
either, as our working cap chart above indicates. With its other financial obligations from now
to year’s end, we expect ARG to leave 2024 with a negative working cap of U$5m. It can keep
working without any change in policy and expect the 4q23 and 2024 profits to revert that, but
we’re now at the stage where it would only take one more setback of the type experienced by
ARG in 2023 for things to go really wrong.
Discussion and conclusion
It’s been a week in which I’ve had to reconsider my exposure to copper, both on a macro level
as signs of price weakness begin to show, and via this investment. ARG is the largest copper
position because of its financial strength and very solid business model, combined with the way
management and direction has improved beyond measure since CEO Davidson took over at the
top and, of course, its commitment to return capital to shareholders via its very attractive
dividend policy. However, recent events have changed the optics and this combination is the
problem:
 The storm at end 2q23
 The new production issue disclosed last week
 The potential for copper price weakness in the near term
Be clear that none of those could ever be called “the fault” of ARG. Far from it, they’re outside
7
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
$m ARG.to: Working capital
source: company filings
884.11
608.71
565.12
236.42
494.43
209.01
58.6
79.9
806.21
998.4-
8- 5-
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
U$m
source company filings
ARG.to: Shares Out
190
185 (NB: cut down Y-axis)
180
175
170
165
160
155
150
145
140
71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
source: company filings, IKN ests
serahs
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issues affecting the company and, in fact, we should applaud the company for the way it
responded to the serious operational problems the world threw at them in June. But bad luck
also matters and as well as this small producer has risen to the challenges, it also highlights its
small size and single asset status. It’s a cruel reality that a small company can bounce back
once or twice, but it’s going to be at a distinct disadvantage if it hits a string of bad luck. In the
case of ARG, its previously strong balance sheet is looking a little weakened after this latest
production shortfall in Q3 and it’s only going to take one more hit to need to tap that $15m
backstop.
We don’t like tapping backstops.
Until this week, the thought of copper going through a weak period wasn’t a big concern when
it came to this trade, but now it is. If ARG hadn’t seen these two recent production hits (no
matter whether caused by them or not) the numbers show its balance sheet could have
sustained a long period of lower copper prices (for argument’s sake, sub-U$3.50/lb) without
sweating the 3c/qtr dividend but now that’s not the case. Yes, for sure it can use its credit
facility to get over a troubled period of time but that only weakens its balance sheet further and
makes it more reliant on a potentially fickle future. There’s no getting around the cold, hard
reality that if copper drops now, the bad timing would compound the problems at ARG and if
the market senses its dividend policy is under pressure, the selling would really begin. When I
first saw the NR on Monday and did the numbers in my head, I wasn’t too concerned because
at U$3.80/lb copper ARG will be able to service its dividend indefinitely. But as the week wore
on, three issues kept returning. The first is whether we can truly rely on copper to remain at its
current price level in the last quarter of 2023 (see The Copper Basket below for more on that),
the second was the way ARG would have to go through a couple of quarters without any more
bad news (and I don’t like relying on luck when the position is a big one), the third was to relize
that however much the world might flag the upcoming mediocre 3q23 financials, when they
drop the market is going to judge ARG on what it sees in front of it on that day. What it’s going
to see is a big operating loss.
The bottom line: I’m holding as per. After running the numbers and thinking hard about a
situation that is suddenly less than optimal, I’ve decided not to sell any shares or even lighten
the ARG position any further but I don’t mind telling you, it wasn’t an easy decision. I’ll also be
watching the copper price action very carefully as 2023 winds down and if the current price
trendline breaks to the downside, I am now in no doubt which of my copper positions will see
at least some selling.
Don’t get me wrong on this, Amerigo is still a great little company. Its business model is great,
it’s run in exemplary fashion, the dividend makes a big difference (and has allowed me to make
new purchases without adding cash to the port) and in the long-term it has all the hallmarks of
a winner. However, it’s hit a run of bad luck and it would only take one more thing to go
against it at this bad time, e.g. a copper price downturn, for the share price to fall away. That’s
no fault of the management, the company or even the country of Chile, that’s just capitalism
and how it works. Therefore I am a holder of ARG and will stay that way, but it would only take
one more turn of bad fortune to see me lighten this position and raise some cash.
Revival Gold (RVG.v): The stand-out presentation at Beaver Creek
Before my concerns about the current position in Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) began to
manifest and then grow, the plan this weekend was to feature what I considered to be the best
and most eye-catching presentation from the Beaver Creek conference here in the main fundies
section. I’ll state here that the plan was to present the company and put it on the Watch List
going forward, rather than wade in and buy shares immediately, so as things turned out I don’t
feel any time pressure to run a abridged or rushed note and fail to do full justice to the
company and its story. On the other hand, there’s no desire to be play at mystery or hold
hidden agendas here at The IKN Weekly so instead of keeping it a secret I’d much prefer to say
at least something about the company and my interest before moving on.
For the record, this link (4) takes you to the presentation video and this one (5) to the
8

accompanying corporate presentation PDF. On it, you’ll see the highly respected industry figure
and company CEO Hugh Agro presenting the case and hitting the talking points that opened my
eyes. Also at this point, I’m keenly aware that I’m very late to this story and that many of you
reading these words will know plenty about RVG.v and its flagship Beartrack-Arnett gold project
in Idaho USA. That’s my fault for being ignorant and not yours, as while I have been aware of
its existence for unknown reasons I’d never really taken a good look. In fact, even last week I
only tuned into CEO Agro’s presentation because it was next up on the list and I was at a loose
end. However, my ignorance may also be a slice of good luck, because…
…this company has never been as advanced on its project and as cheap to buy in the
marketplace as it is today. The combination of market disinterest in gold, disdain for juniors and
recent selling pressure from large holders (that 3m share spike was the culmination of the
decision by Pan American Silver to dump their shares, with Adrian Day and his funds mopping
up the cheap papers) has made RVG very easy to buy even after its recent delivery of a decent
pre-feasibility study that shows a clear pathway to production at a relatively low initial capex
outlay. There’s no rush to buy in, as RVG is almost certainly going back to market in the near
future and will raise capital for its 2024 drilling and development campaigns, so the cheap
window looks set to stay open for a few weeks to come. So expect a bigger and better analysis
of RVG in an edition soon, perhaps even next weekend, but for the time being consider me
interested in a story that may now be new to you, but is to me.
Stocks to Follow
If it weren’t for Minera Alamos (MAI.v) losing a penny it would have been a satisfying week for
The Stocks to Follow list, but watching the Top Pick remain range bound and then witnessing
how just a few minor sales orders were enough to knock it down another notch was a real
Debbie Downer, taking the polish off what was otherwise exactly what we’d want from a relief
rally and sector rebound.
So…ahem…with that off my chest…ten of our twenty 20 open positions returned week-over-
week gains (ARG.to, QCCU.v, EQX, FSM, FDY.to, CTGO, ABRA.v, WEX.v, MARI.to, MENE.v),
four were unchanged (NCAU.v, MIRL.cse, SURG.v, LBC.v) and six were losers (MAI.v, SOLG.to,
RIO.v, OCI.v, ALDE.v, RUG.v), so not only were there plenty of winners, but they were also
concentrated where they matter to my personal back pocket, higher up the table in the main
recommended stock section. Except for MAI.v of course. Grrrr. As for bigger movers, first the
losers and the large percentage drops in Rugby Resources (RUG.v down 20.0%) and Orecap
(OCI.v down 12.5%), though in effect they were half cent and penny moves inside recent
trading ranges. But the winners make for a pleasant list, headed by AbraSilver (ABRA.v up
15.4%) and followed by Equinox Gold (EQX up 11.3%), QC Copper (QCCU.v up 11.1%),
Contango ORE (CTGO up 10.0%) and let’s tack Fortuna Silver (FSM up 8.6%) on the tail end as
well, just for fun.
9

We currently have 20 open positions on the list, that’s the self-imposed maximum. Eight of
them are in the green, 12 are in the red and it really wouldn’t take much to get three or four of
those back on the right side of the line. This is junior mining, after all.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.285 35.7% $0.75 first tgt, #1 idea
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Amerigo Res ARG.to STR BUY C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.41 3.7% Main Cu trade, top fundies
SolGold SOLG.to STR BUY C$0.265 19-Feb-23 C$0.24 -9.4% Cu in Ecuador, M&A tgt
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v BUY C$0.265 25-Apr-21 C$0.15 -43.4% delayed MRE now due end Q3
Equinox Gold EQX BUY U$4.46 30-May-23 U$5.13 15.0% Au leverage trade, trading well
Fortuna Silver FSM BUY U$2.92 13-Aug-23 U$3.02 3.4% New trade, want quick flip
Faraday Copper FDY.to BUY C$0.79 26-Mar-23 C$0.70 -11.4% USA based Cu exploreco
Contango Ore CTGO BUY U$18.70 30-Jul-23 U$19.45 4.0% new purchase IKN741
AbraSilver Res. ABRA.v SPEC BUY C$0.36 4-Dec-22 C$0.375 4.2% added for last time Mar'23
Newcore Gold NCAU.v SPEC BUY C$0.205 23-Oct-22 C$0.115 -43.9% Financing closed, bottom in
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v BUY C$0.83 22-Apr-18 C$0.225 -72.9% Cheap on permit probs, appeal
SPECULATIVE TRADES
Orecap inv OCI.v SPEC BUY C$0.04 20-Nov-22 C$0.035 -12.5% corp revamp, new strategy
Western Explor. WEX.v SPEC BUY C$1.87 9-Apr-23 C$0.87 -53.5% Au spec in USA, started badly
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v SPEC BUY C$0.72 16-May-21 C$0.84 16.7% now in drill assay season
Minera IRL MIRL.cse avoid C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.02 -89.7% run into ground byCEO, AVOID
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
Marimaca Copper MARI.to WATCH C$3.65 26-May-23 C$4.10 12.3% Likely buy, want cheap entry
Surge Copper SURG.v WATCH C$0.11 18-Jun-23 C$0.095 -13.6% tinycap Cu in BC Canada
Libero Copper LBC.v WATCH C$0.065 2-Jul-23 C$0.045 -30.8% Watching for Arg drill permit
Rugby Resources RUG.v WATCH C$0.06 26-Mar-23 C$0.04 -33.3% tinycap Cu in Colombia
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.63 6-Dec-20 C$0.415 -34.1% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2023 date closed close price
Altiplano Metals APN.v jan'23 C$0.31 17-Sep-21 C$0.17 -45.2% delayed and will dilute soon
Western Copper WRN.to mar'23 C$2.02 13-Nov-22 C$2.32 14.9% sold on reduced M&A prob.
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v may'23 C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$1.75 -43.0% Closing on legal action news
Amerigo Res ARG.to may'23 C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.48 8.8% sold 20% to raise cash
2015 to 2022 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on a few of our covered companies:
Minera Alamos (MAI.v): Down a penny and largely ignored by a market looking for either
silver trades or positions in larger, more liquid gold producers (see EQX and FSM below), MAI
was a depressing sight last week and may have traded at 30c for a few hours, but never
threatened to break out from the level. Company President Doug Ramshaw presented at Beaver
Creek (6), told that crowd largely the same story that we’ve been hearing for a while and made
sure the financiers knew that he didn’t need their money (though we are awaiting the closure
and the details on the small debt package for the Cerro de Oro build-out, we’ll find out more
about the mystery counter party then). FWIW President Ramshaw is also presenting at the
Denver show (Gold Forum Americas 2023) on Tuesday Afternoon and you never know, by then
we may have that Cerro de Oro financing package closed and announced by then.
Equinox Gold (EQX): EQX had a genuinely good week as bargain hunters stepped up and
10

bought all the prices all the week.
Its progress may have been helped by RBC Cap Mkts,
which published an analysis update on Monday
September 11th that raised its reco to “Sector Perform”
from “Underperform” and its price target from C$5.00
to C$7.25. If we consider that EQX on the Toronto
bourse hasn’t traded as low as C$5 since March and
closed this weekend at C$6.98, that note is the polite
way of saying “we were wrong” without moving directly
to the reco they should truly place on the stock (and
they know it). Without going into details on the call
(though feel free to mail for a copy), the front page
“key points” paragraphs were entitled:
 Greenstone on track with visibility to completion
 Balance sheet in a comfortable position for the home stretch
 Remaining cautious but near-term risks subsiding
…which is basically the point we’ve been making at this desk since opening the trade in late
May. So there’s that. Finally, for those wanting the “company in 14 minutes” (not 15) the
presentation made by company VP IR Rhylin Bailie was better than most of the ones I sat
through on Friday morning (7). An object lesson in how to present a multi-mine company to
fresh eyes, IR people reading these words would do well to study Ms Bailie to see how the job
is done right. CEO Greg Smith is booked to present at Denver this week, though. Relays and
batons, I suppose.
Fortuna Silver (FSM): FSM was another with a good week, the +8.6% move not quite as
impressive as that of EQX but still more than acceptable, given the circumstances. Notably, FSM
wasn’t at Beaver Creek but is booked to present this coming week at the Denver gold show
(Gold Forum Americas 2023), That’s CEO Ganoza tomorrow Monday just before midday (I won’t
be watching, he’s like fingernails on a chalkboard), instead I’ll catch up with the replay and look
for any extra information on how the Séguéla mine is going, hopefully the same about
Yaramoko and the other assets.
Contango ORE (CTGO): It took all of August and half of September to get our purchase price
into the green, but we finally made it last week as buyers appeared for CTGO and pushed it
into the U$19-handle. What’s more, the stock
price visited as low at U$17 midweek before the
buyers showed up, so bottom fishers will be even
happier than this desk about the way trading
unfolded on Friday. On that day, the near 200k in
volume was a notable improvement and
represents around U$3.5m in share
value…imagine that going through your average
TSXV exploreco priced at 50c.
Was that Friday move some index rebalancing, or
was it a “Beaver Creek Effect”? Maybe the latter,
because RvN’s presentation probably found a
brand new audience last week and as though of
us that have crunched the numbers know, there’s
plenty of value in this current equity price on Manh Choh alone. Here’s the link to his
presentation (8), though he went for a general overview that spent 2/3rd of its 15 minutes on
Manh Choh, the last third on Lucky Shot.
AbraSilver Resource Corp (ABRA.v): Last week we reported that the stock “…was picking
up promo pump in the social media channels, whether that’s good or bad is up to you to
11

decide” and know the way these people watch the calendar carefully, that may have been due
to the Silver Junior ETF (SILJ) rebalance that closed on Friday, with those in the know
expecting the notoriously heavy-handed SILJ trading desk to influence the price. Indeed it was
so, with the ten-day chart (right showing how volume accelerated into the close and pushed
ABRA to its highest price close since May (bizarre but true). A minor, though welcome knock-on
effect is seeing my personal holding creep into the green (at last) and though 4.0% on an silver
exploration play is zero zip nada in real terms, there is a psychological fillip involved and it was
a pleasant moment on Friday afternoon as I updated the Excel tracker data.
By the way, in this case we know that Friday pop was definitely an index effect rather than
anything said at Beaver Creek, but ABRA did a good job of presenting at Beaver Creek and you
can watch the replay here (10).
Western Exploration (WEX.v): One of the more technical presentations made at Beaver
Creek last week, CEO Darcy Marud did the honours and woke up the audience with a
presentation that peppered them with grades and thicknesses from the lower levels of Aura,
particularly at the Doby George target. He also
WEX.v: Cash treasury per qtr
reported that they’ve burned through around C$1.5m
of the recently raised cash already, the drill program is
ongoing and the first assays should be coming back
from the labs “soon” (days or weeks nobody ever
knows, but they’ll come) and have around C$3.1m left
in treasury as at last week, which is close enough to
our original guess on burn speed to fit the model as
we guesstimated C$2.2m left in the till at the end of
this month (right). We have been reliably told that he
managed to piqued the interest of the otherwise
somewhat soporific and was one of the surprises of
the conference, at least for some. Go see the presentation and the PDF here (11).
QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v): We remind readers that QCCU pledged to deliver its MRE by
the end of 3q23 and that period now has just two weeks to run. So, either anytime now or one
of the most cringe YouTube videos of the year is coming up, as well as a rush for the door from
retail shareholders who can only hear the same excuses so many times. I’m deeply desirous of
the former.
Surge Copper (SURG.v): It’s been very quiet at SURG recently. This three-month price chart
points to the dates on which we got the last three pieces of news from the company, two of
them on the Berg maiden PEA (the announcement
then the statutory filing), plus the only NR that
matters at the moment, the one on July 13th that
announced the start of its 3,500m drill campaign
that plans to put 3,500m into Berg and Ootsa) via
six to eight holes. That was nine weeks ago, those
holes are relatively shallow, the assay labs aren’t
particularly backed up at the moment, therefore
we’re now in the likely window for the first assay
results NR from the company. The sooner the
better on these things, as the old saying “good
news travels fast/bad news slowly” is as true as
ever.
The Copper Basket
After thirty-seven weeks of 2023, The Copper Basket shows a loss of 7.61% to level stakes:
12
91.0
694.5
168.3
241.3
331.1 662.1
747.0
970.3
2.2 5.1
6
5.5
5
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5 0
12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim

company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Solaris Res SLS.to 6.44 146.599 776.97 5.30 -17.7%
2 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.22 92.882 380.82 4.10 27.3%
3 Western Copper WRN.to 2.41 151.597 301.68 1.99 -17.4%
4 Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to 1.92 105.96 186.49 1.76 -8.3%
5 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.78 175.554 147.47 0.84 7.7%
6 Oroco Res OCO.v 0.91 216.13 146.97 0.68 -25.3%
7 Hot Chili HCH.v 0.78 119.455 143.35 1.20 53.8%
8 Faraday Copper FDY.to 0.54 175.2 122.64 0.70 29.6%
9 Regulus Res. REG.v 1.10 124.509 104.59 0.84 -23.6%
10 Pan Global Res PGZ.v 0.46 212.395 61.59 0.29 -37.0%
11 Kodiak Copper KDK.v 1.12 56.2 36.53 0.65 -42.0%
12 QC Copper QCCU.v 0.165 162.815 24.42 0.15 -9.1%
13 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.16 106.25 17.00 0.16 0.0%
14 Libero Copper LBC.v 0.155 119.58 5.38 0.045 -71.0%
15 Atacama Copper ACOP.v 0.16 35.94 6.83 0.19 18.8%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg -7.61%
The choppy waters continue in the copper space,
The Copper Basket 2023, weekly evolution
but at least this week the waves went in the 12%
10%
direction of the bulls. 8%
6%
4%
To be precise, our basket average improved by 2%
1.72% on the week thanks to the seven winners 0%
-2%
(WRN.to, MARI.to, ASCU.to, HCH.v, PGZ.v, -4%
-6%
FDY.to, QCCU.v) beating out the six losers
-8%
(SLS.to, OCO.v, ALDE.v, REG.v, KDK.v, ACOP.v), -10%
with the two unchanged stocks (ECU.v, LBC.v)
making up the numbers. The average also tilted
in our favour due to the bigger winners, with Pan
Global (PGZ.v up 20.8%) QC Copper (QCCU.v up 11.1%) and Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.to up
8.6%) standing out. Most of the other moves were small on either side.
The move was fuelled by a move in copper early week which saw it rebound from the trough I
was forced to report in IKN747 last Sunday, moving the standard price back to the U$3.80/lb
level that we’re all getting used to seeing. This two-month chart (right) shows the story and
while the fluctuations continue, the thin red line we’ve drawn in seems to act like a magnet to
the main futures contract.
It wasn’t easy to find reasons to be bullish about the metal, either. The US inflation data came
in slightly hot and bumped the copper price down for 24 hours on Wednesday (12)…
Copper prices declined slightly on Wednesday after US consumer prices data for
13
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2yluj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6gua ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3pes ht01 ht71
source: IKN calcs

August showed the biggest increase in more than a year, which could keep interest
rates higher for longer and support the dollar.
Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) was down 0.2% at $8,371
per metric ton in open-outcry trading.
The U.S. consumer price index increased by 0.6% last month, the largest gain since
June 2022, the Labor Department said on Wednesday. The CPI had risen by 0.2% for
two straight months.
A stronger U.S. currency makes dollar-priced metals costlier for holders of other
currencies, which could weigh on demand.
...then Chinese data popped it back up a few cents on Thursday and Friday. This snippet from
this note (13) sums up the sentiment from the back end of last week nicely
“We are certainly seeing the battle between a strengthening dollar versus supportive
stimulus out of China and better than expected data (in China) for August,” said
StoneX analyst Natalie Scott-Gray.
Indeed, Natalie. So overall, copper-the-metal did quite well to recover from the dump of the
week before, re-taking and then holding the U$3.80/lb line…or perhaps battle line is more
accurate. What’s more, the Good Doctor Copper now another headwind to battle against in the
form of rising futures market inventories and for that, we move to our regular weekly review of
copper inventories, data as usual from Chile’s Cochilco:
 We had a second week of significant additions to world copper stocks last week. After
the 35k and bits of two weeks ago, this time we saw 17,648 metric tonnes (mt) added
and with the biggest lumps landing in places that suggest demand is slack. This
weekend, the aggregate total stands at 232,012mt, compare that to the 167kmt we
registered at the end of July.
 The biggest upmove in stocks came at the Shanghai SHFE, its fourth consecutive week
of additions and the biggest one in the recent series, with 10,191mt added to get us to
65,146mt this weekend. The thesis up to now has been of tight/very tight supply on
China’s mainland, that’s now looking less likely and we’ll continue those thoughts
below, under the dedicated SHFE charts.
 The other big drop happened at the LME, where inventories added 9,250mt to close the
week at 143,375mt. The main dumps happened in Europe, where 4,750mt arrived in
Rotterdam warehouses and 3,000mt to Hamburg. The other data point of interest is
more a non-point, as the chart tracking LME cancelled warrant tonnages shows how
nobody is booking metal out of the warehouses. There are two reasons to put tonnages
on cancelled warrant, namely 1)
LME: Cu tonnage under cancelled warrant
real end-users taking delivery in
100000
the near future or 2) instos trying 90000
80000
to spoof the market and make it 70000
60000
look as though metal is about to
50000
be delivered, only to roll over the 40000
30000
contract and leave the copper in- 20000
situ. At the moment, neither of 10000
0
those is happening and that
points us toward a copper market
that is simply ignoring the
potential supply from LME
warehouses. Broadly speaking, the warehousing system is used as a last resort, both
for producers that don’t find willing buyers or buyers that can’t find supply from
anywhere else. It’s nothing too odd about seeing cancelled warrant tonnages drop low,
but watching them stay there, week after week, is enough to raise a yellow flag on the
market. It tells us that end-users are getting all they need from direct purchases (that
are usually cheaper, do not involve paying system premiums etc) and while it doesn’t
necessarily affect prices immediately, the trend is obviously bearish. Particularly when
combined with the signal coming from the Shanghai SHFE system at the same time and
for that, see below.
14
22ht42rpA ht8 dn22 ht5nuj ht91 dr3yluj ht71 ts13 ht41 ht82 ht11 ht52 22ht9tco 22dr32tco ht6von ht02 ht4ced ht81 3202
naJ
ht51 32ts1naJ ht21 ht62 ht21 ht62 ht9 dr32 ht7yaM ts12 ht4nuJ ht81 dn2luJ ht61 ht03luJ ht31guA ht72 ht01peS
mt Cu
source: LME/Cochilco

 The only drop was again at the Comex, this time it saw 1,793mt leave their
stockrooms, the Friday close was 23,491mt and 1,125mt of that lump probably made
its way to the LME New Orleans warehouses, which continue to expand their inventory
at a rate of knots (over a third of LME total).
Now for our dedicated SHFE tracking charts and, as alluded to above, we’re getting a new
signal from their data and visual prompt.
The first chart showing the long-term trend isn’t an issue for bulls, in fact if anything it
underscores how little copper the SHFE system is carrying at present compared to previous
years
Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2014 to date
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
15
31'13ceD dr32 ht51 ht7 ht03 dn22 ht71 ht9 ts1von ht42 ht71 ht01 dn2tcO 7102ts1naJ ht62 ht81 ht01 dr3ced ht52 102ht72rpa ht91 ht11 9102
dr3bef
102ht82rpa ts12 ht31 0202ht5naj 202ht92ram ts12 ht31 0202ht6ced ht82 dr32 ht51 ht7 202ht03naj 22ht42rpA ht71 22ht9tco 3202
naJ
ht62 ht81 ht01peS
Mt Cu
|
source: Cochilco
The pattern of spiking early every year (around and after the Chinese New Year) is well-
established and what happened between the spikes is more interesting. This year has seen the
same type of drop to below 50,000mt that we saw in the Covid year of 2020 and 2021,
dangerously tight under normal circumstances. But we also see the recent rebound at the far
right of the chart to levels seen at the end of last year and we know the world managed to
make everything it wanted to make with copper at the time.
It’s the data showing rising stocks over the last two to three weeks that has more of my
attention and for that, here’s the comparative yearly tracker chart:
SHFE copper inventory levels, 2018 to 2023
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
MT Cu 2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
source: Cochilco data
We see how SHFE copper stocks bottomed out in Weeks 34 and 35 (mid-August) at around
40kmt, the levels we saw in the same weeks of 2022. However, last year saw stocks stay under
40kmt for eleven straight weeks until October, whereas this year they’ve popped back up
quickly and are now higher than even the same week of 2021. So SHFE has added 26kmt or so
of stock recently and that’s unusual on the annual cycle, as you can probably make out in the
chart above. This time of year, late Q3 and early Q4, is the time when stocks normally deplete
as China mainland manufacturers secure the supply they need for the calendar year end run-up
and through to the Chinese New Year, after which they typically re-stock their own factory
warehouses. That’s surely happening this year as well, so seeing SHFE inventory climb at the
same time is a warning bell of oversupply in the copper market.

However, before you start panicking and selling out of your copper positions due to this turn of
events, remember that we track inventories for the trend signals, not for trade signals. It’s
perfectly possible to see both stocks and copper prices rising at the same time, as inventories
are just one of several influences on the market. We’re also describing a possible turn point in
the market, not a stone-cold fact and next week we could be reporting on stocks that have
started to drop again. We track inventories closely for good reasons, but make sure you have
their relative importance understood as a move in the US Dollar or a big announcement from
the Fed or PBOC will always make more of a splash on copper’s spot price than the slower-
moving trends as the metal enters and exits its warehouses.
Now for notes on a couple of basket stocks.
Solaris Resources (SLS.to): It could have been worse, as SLS traded as low as C$5.12
before rallying into Friday, so the small-ish 6c drop on the week isn’t a disaster per se, but as
this YTD chart shows the stock is back at or near its 2023 lows.
Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.to): A nice little relief rally in ASCU last week on the back of three
developments:
 A NR dated September 12th entitled Arizona Sonoran drills 1.78% CuT over 639 ft
(194.8 m) from the Parks/Salyer Deposit” (14). A decent headline and the contents
matched, but once the stardust and sequins had settled the main message of the
NR was that the ASCU 13-hole infill drilling program had returned positive assays.
That’s good, but it’s infill and not something that moves the discovery needle at all
(or the resource tonnage needle much, either).
 Its presentation on Thursday September 14th at Beaver Creek, which got plenty of
auxiliary support from the media channels it pays for coverage. Double-edged
sword.
 The Beaver Creek chatter, as your author has been reliably informed that “the
serious people” were speaking highly of ASCU at the chattering and networking
occasions. Which is fine, but these are the same serious voices that were pumping
the stock in 2022 and made sure those who took their advice are now soundly
underwater in the position.
I’m being too harsh, as ASCU is a decent enough proposition and has the right combo of
location, team and backing to become a success, assuming the copper price plays ball (or
course). Having done the numberwork on the stock (and having noted since then that the
numbers haven’t changed much) I know that much, but I also know that I chose Faraday
Copper (FDY.to) above ASCU at the time. While FDY is down since then, its performance has
been relatively stronger compared to its regional peer and I’m happy to stick with my pick.
Atacama Copper (ACOP.v): If we remember back a couple of weeks to the 1.4m shares that
went through at 18c after a quick ramp from recent lows (chart below left), last week’s pop and
16

drop makes a little more sense. Once again on no news whatsoever, there seems to be
somebody playing silly devils with this thinly traded stock, as the ten-day chart (below right)
shows.
Between Monday and Thursday, buyers showed up and took small chunks of stock that amount
to around 330,000 shares. As those shares must have been sold by someone and ACOP has
just spent a full year doing nothing, we likely saw a quarter of that recent pile sold back to the
market at prices between 19c and 26.5c, with most of those trades happening North of 22c. So,
somebody has de-risked a six figure position. Good for them, but until ACOP comes out with
real news, today’s segment is the last in this brief series that started three weekends ago.
Element 29 (ECU.v): To its credit, the delayed-then-upsized placement as noted last
weekend in IKN747 closed in good order last week (15), raising gross proceeds of C$2.86m
which should be enough to see them drill into 2024. We’ve suitably adjusted its share count,
now 106m and bits. We now await results from the Elida drill program in the Northern end of
Peru, then with luck news on a community agreement at Flor de Cobre that will allow the
company to stick drills in the most prospective zones of its property in the South of the same
country. Watching brief.
The Producer Basket
After 37 weeks of 2023, the Producer Basket shows a gain of 3.45% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 47.20 799 32.22 40.33 -14.6%
2 Barrick GOLD 17.18 1761.54 29.31 16.64 -3.1%
3 Agnico Eagle AEM 51.99 488.9 24.00 49.08 -5.6%
4 Wheaton PM WPM 39.08 451.963 19.99 44.22 13.2%
5 Kinross Gold KGC 4.09 1256.1 6.51 5.18 26.7%
6 Alamos Gold AGI 10.11 393.1 4.88 12.42 22.8%
7 B2Gold BTG 3.57 1074.567 3.49 3.25 -9.0%
8 Hecla Mining GFI 5.56 610.491 2.58 4.22 -24.1%
9 Eldorado Gold EGO 8.36 185.73 1.86 10.02 19.9%
10 Wesdome Gold WDOFF 5.53 147.526 0.88 5.99 8.3%
All prices and stock quotes in U$ Port. avg 3.45%
As the tracking chart shows (below left), the precious metals producer complex has been
zigging and zagging through August and September, trying to decide which way to break.
We’ve yet to see if the miners can follow through, but last week moved in the right way and
saw all ten of our stocks improve, from the smallest gain by Wesdome (WDOFF up 2.7%) to the
biggest from Kinross (KGC up 8.6%), the other eight stocks dotted in between and with a
median around the +5% line. As a group, we did slightly better than the GDX benchmark (GDX
17

up 4.9% WoW).
The 2023 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
comparative to GDX control
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
With the Denver Gold Show starting tomorrow, news and views from bigger producers were
thin on the ground last week, though we’re bound to be spoiled for choice in IKN749 next
weekend. So that will do us for this section today, here’s wishing a positive follow-through week
ahead for gold and all who sail in her.
The TinyCaps List
After 37 weeks of 2023, the TinyCaps show a gain 27.95% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Aurelius Min AUL.v 0.07 49.787 1.00 0.02 -71.4%
Coast Copper COCO.v 0.045 64.001 4.16 0.065 44.4%
District Metals DMX.v 0.075 86.891 18.25 0.21 180.0%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.13 69.962 8.40 0.12 -7.7%
Manitou Gold MTU.v 0.02 344.568 18.95 0.055 175.0%
Nine Mile Metals NINE.cse 0.29 57.025 4.85 0.085 -70.7%
Palamina Corp PA.v 0.08 65.285 8.49 0.13 62.5%
Precipitate Gold PRG.v 0.075 130.367 7.82 0.06 -20.0%
South Star STS.v 0.55 40.129 20.47 0.51 -5.5%
Viva Gold VAU.v 0.14 106.721 13.87 0.13 -7.1%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 27.95%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $20m. They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a
little and allowed sub-U$20m market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, but it was a particularly depressing exercise to trawl through the whole of the TSXV and find companies
that are small enough, but with life in them. The vast majority of sub-$20m stocks are broken stocks, either
traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2023. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
A very quiet week for the TinyCaps list, with four
winners (COCO.v, DMX.v, STS.v, VAU.v) and only one
of them moving by any great amount. That was Coast
Copper (COCO.v up 18.2%) but please check below
for more on that. Fives others were unchanged
(AUL.v, LMS.v, MTU.v, NINE.cse, PA.v) and that leaves
18
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2yluj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6gua ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3pes ht01 ht71
The 2023 Producer Basket: Percentage difference
between GDX benchmark & basket (negative = IKN ahead)
4.0%
ikn
3.0%
gdx control
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
source: NYSE, IKN calcs ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2yluj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6gua ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3pes ht01 ht71
source: IKN calcs, NYSE data
TinyCaps, 2023 weekly tracker
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2yluj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6gua ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3pes ht01 ht71
source: IKN calcs, TSX data

just one loser to report (PRG.v). Mix those together,
bake in a medium oven for 35 minutes and you’re left
with a jump of around 2% on the average.
Coast Copper (COCO.v): The only big mover of the
week allows us to run a brief reminder of why volume
matters. See the chart right, which shows how a single
trade on Thursday was enough to move this up by
18.2% on the week. Or if you prefer, a trade for C$975
worth of shares (and no missing zeroes) improves the
nominal market cap of the company by
C$640,000…that’s leverage. It’s also silly, so it’s easy to
ignore weeks such as this.
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future
I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
Ecuador: The CONAIE cleavage point
Before getting to the issue, here’s a screenshot of the top part of the table included on the
dedicated Wikipedia page for the Ecuador election (16) (because these days Wikipedia is a
trusted source, my stars don’t times change?). It’s in Spanish, but not too tough to decipher:
The table includes the Click Report survey dated September 6th that we quoted last weekend in
IKN747, then four others published in the last week and of those, the Tino Electoral survey is
probably the least trustworthy. That leaves the others and the right wing pick Daniel Noboa is
polling fairly regularly between five and eight points ahead of the Rafael Correa’s dauphine, the
left leaning Luisa González. Now for a little election math:
 We can expect around 9m active votes in the second round.
 Therefore, one percentage point is around 90,000 votes.
 Therefore, if Luisa González can pick up between 500,000 and 800,000 votes
between now and election day October 15th compared to the current opinion poll
pulse, she can win this election.
 Around 5% of Ecuador’s population self-identifies as indigenous. That’s around
850,000 people, man/woman/child
 The indigenous umbrella group COANIE claims an overall membership of around
725,000 people, mostly indigenous but some members also identify culturally as
mixed race (the majority of Ecuador)
That’s the backdrop, now for the way in which the two candidates reacted to the statements by
CONAIE head Leonidas Iza as reported last weekend, that of not backing either candidate at
19

present but waiting and listening to the their campaigns and the live TV debate on October 1st,
before making any change to its neutral position. First, here’s Luisa González (17):
“We (my candidacy and CONAIE) are aiming toward the same Ecuador. The CONAIE
proposals coincide totally with what the Constitution says and what our government
manifesto plan says.” She also said that she would have no problem in meeting Iza in
the days to come and “with all those who would like to join our plan for the country.” In
other words, she’s trying to claim that the multiple points of agenda as published by
CONAIE are also part of her plan and she’s willing to come to an agreement or
alliance.
Now for the position of Daniel Noboa (18):
“Leonides Iza is a Correa supporter. In the end CONAIE can decide to do whatever it
wants. I have a work plan. If they like my plan that’s great, but what can we expect if
Leonidas Iza is in fact a Correa fan. He’s been a “Correista” all his life and isn’t about
to change because of me, let’s not be stupid about it.”
How not to win friends and influence people. Also, the word he used that I translate as “stupid”
above is a specific word, “gil”, a Spanish colloquialism common in Ecuador, used against
someone considered stupid or slow. Someone who has a hard time in understanding further
than the superficial, or with a propensity to put their foot in their mouth. It’s a fairly weighty
insult there, so using it against Leondias Iza is particularly antagonistic.
Once he’d heard the reactions of both Noboa and González, Leonidas Iza was asked for an
opinion on national TV (19) as part of a longer interview and he had this to say about the
position of Luisa González:
“(The Correa supporters) have never done any self-criticism regarding the persecution
suffered by the indigenous movement during the government of Rafael Correa….many
of the policies of Correa have been beneficial for the country, but others have been
extremely contrary to the struggle of the indigenous movements.”
That was a well-weighted comment, which must have reminded both Luisa González and the
country that Iza himself was imprisoned along with several of his colleagues during the Correa
years. However, it’s also a clear “we’re open to talk” message for González, as long as she
doesn’t come to the table with the assumption of 100% agreement on current policies.
Now for Iza’s comments on Daniel Noboa: First he said that Noboa had no way of showing that
Iza was a Correa supporter, it simply isn’t true, he said that he was neither pro or contra
Correa. Then he got to the point:
“As politicians position themselves to try to damage the image of others, logically he’s
taken that position. He says that they’d be stupid “gil” to think that I’m not a Correa
supporter…I think he’s a stupid (gil)….(Noboa) doesn’t want and will never have the
political will to consider the agenda of the indigenous movement, as two of our
demands are against the financial groups (that he represents): that the business that
owe money to the tax man pay their bills, and that they review all mining concessions.”
I’ve gone into the weeds a little today, relaying some of the he-said-she-said political stuff
that’s normally second level and not the contents of a publication ostensibly about mining
matters, mostly because of where this is all leading. Three points:
 There’s no way Iza will support Noboa, his party or his political position. Period. If Noboa wins
the vote (as is currently likely), that means we’re in for a repeat of the tension and conflict we
saw between the Lasso government and CONAIE in 2021 and particularly 2022, but that
would be further down the line. What we’re not going to get is any type of alliance between
CONAIE and Noboa in round two in October.
 It’s true that Iza is not a “Correista” (as they say), it’s also true that his and CONAIE political
position is firmly Left wing and therefore close to that of the Citizen’s Revolution party headed
up by Luisa González. There is room for an alliance, however shaky or politically cynical it may
look from the outside, and the indirect, thru-media-channel back and forth between González
and Iza last week was all about making overtures and setting loose agendas for a possible
20

meeting and eventual agreement. While still not a probability, a deal between CONAIE and
the Correa Party in the run-off is now logically possible and we’ll have to see how far these
dealing get in the next couple of weeks (or perhaps the days following the October 1st live TV
debate). However, if there is some sort of deal you can be sure it’s bad news for the mining
industry, as CONAIE will make sure some sort of anti-mining posture is front and centre of
any alliance in this run-off.
 We’ve floated the possible scenario of Iza The Kingmaker several times before, it’s clear he’s
not against the idea and as the math above shows, in theory there are enough CONAIE votes
to tip the balance or at the very least, make this election a very close-run thing instead of
watching Noboa cruise through the next four weeks with his lead intact.
Bottom line: We’re all about the near-term trade set-up at the moment and while some of you
with a high risk tolerance may be positioning already, last week’s maneuvers show that this
election is far from a shoo-in. If CONAIE and Lucia do a deal, it would raise the stakes for the
mining sedctor considerably, as in one shot it would improve her chances of winning on October
15th immeasurably and also add clear and direct risk to the mining sector by adding anti-mining
policy decisions to her manifesto.
Argentina: Trade balances in mining
This Spanish language bizwire story (20), title “Gobierno argentino flexibiliza el cepo a la
minería: autorizan SIRAs por US$12 millones”, is mostly about the first approved U$12m
transaction in Argentina’s mining sector of the new “SIRA Dollar”, a new better forex rate than
the official rate that allows dollars entering the country to get more Pesos (though still nowhere
near the unofficial “Dolar Blue” street rate, unavailable to formal corporations). But buried
below the main story is this chart, with figures for the Argentina Mining Sector Balance of
Payments including last week’s newly published figures for July. We translate the title, the key
and the dates shouldn’t cause difficulties:
With exports of U$359m and a BoP of U$237m in July, Argentina is beginning to set good new
figures and no matter which government is incoming, one under Milei or whoever else, they are
going to inherit a country in desperate need for hard dollar income (to pay the IMF, for one
thing) and datasets like those for
mining will be a sight for sore eyes.
However, what really catches the
attention of this desk is the bottom
set of figures, including the new
record mining import number of
U$122m for July. That’s FDI bringing
mining fixed assets into the country,
the expansion of capex as the large-
scale lithium and copper mining
projects in the country begin to take
shape. A good example of this is
21

Lundin Mining (LUN.to) at Josemaria, as featured recently on your author’s Twitter feed (21).
Here we see the component parts of two of the six ball mills LUM will raise at Josemaria as they
made storage in the city of San Juan, a layover 10 days ago on their way up to the mine site
and installation.
Argentina: Milei with momentum
This weekend’s crop of voter opinion polls show the Libertarian candidate Javier Milei has
stretched his advantage over his two main opponents. As a typical example, yesterday Saturday
pollster Opina Argentin (22) called Milei with 34% voter intention “If the election were
tomorrow”, with the government candidate Sergio Masa on 29% and the orthodos roght wing
candidate Patricia Bullrich on 25%. That’s doubly good for Milei, as if it goes to a run-off
between him and Massa all polls point to a massive advantage, with most Bullrich-type voters
migrating to Milei’s ticket. This visual from the Opina document (names of candidates for
President and Veep) includes flags above the big three, noting the candidates’ result in the
PASO and we see Milei has added four extra points since that August vote. Massa is up by two
points, while the issues facing Patricia Bullrich’s candidacy mount and she’ now down three
points.
We also note how the latest crop of polls coincide with Milei’s new strategy of moving toward
the political centre (he doesn’t seem to be waiting for the run-off, as is the norm in South
American elections). This week, his team rolled out a new strategy that softens his most
draconian plans (23) and while policy points such as “shuttering the Argentine Central Bank”
are still on his agenda, they’re now framed as “medium-term objectives”. Such is the way.
Market Watching
Pan Global Resources (PGZ.v): Additional thoughts
After last week’s opening coverage on this stock, the main fundies note “The cheap copper at
Pan Global Resources (PGZ.v)”, it was interesting to watch how this company’s stock traded
and there was plenty to take in, too:
22

First the boring bit: Nothing happened on Monday, which suited me fine. Your author doesn’t
enjoy the whole “newsletter bump” thing that others seem to like and in this case, the way
forward was to write up the stock and point out its clear potential, but also underscore the
likelihood of it financing into a weak market in the near future. That was supposed to cap the
price upside and early week, the message was in place.
Moving to Tuesday and PGZ.v ran its scheduled live webinar to discuss and elaborate on the
drill results seen from Zarcita and Cañada Honda the week before last. It featured CEO Tim
Moody, came with plenty of live Q&A afterward, the presentation was reasonable and confirmed
our assumption that the results from Cañada Honda are positive and have turned the target
into one of its main priorities going forward. CEO Moody also spent plenty of time extolling the
virtues of Romana West, currently under the drillbit and while obviously he couldn’t pre-empt
the assay labs and go into detail, it wasn’t difficult to read between the lines and assume that
Romana West is indeed a natural extension of Romana and we’re about to see that area of
Escacena grow considerably.
Then came the Q&A and there were two interesting moments lines of discussion in particular.
The first came when he was asked about the overall tonnage they expect to put together at
Escacena when the eventual MRE is published. It’s clear that’s not going to happen before
2024, which also almost certainly means the back end of next year so those of you (us) waiting
on a 43-101 on which to hang a marketing program are going to have to wait a while longer.
As for that size, the question was well posed and to his credit, the moderator did a good job in
rebounding the question so that CEO Moody had to tackle it in a couple of ways. What we
heard was a CEO that was loathe to commit to a number as high as 50 million metric tonnes
(mt), even though he wouldn’t rule it out at this stage in proceedings. That makes sense to this
desk and fits in with a general idea of putting 30mt to 40mt together from Romana/Romana
West and potentially Cañana Honda if they can bring that forward quickly enough.
The second subject was on financing and this time CEO Moody probably did more harm than
good to his share price and what’s more, it was due to his own honestly and desire to be as
open and transparent as possible. In the course of the exchange, he made it clear PGZ was
looking to raise capital, but by corporate preference was not looking at anything particularly
exotic at this stage. Quite correct too, PGZ is clear that selling a royalty this early would do the
company no favours and leave money on the table, that deal would work better for mine
development capital. As the company is in discussion with entities interested in sponsoring the
next raising, it quickly became apparent there’s an equity raising coming soon. With that on the
table and with scant interest in the open market for juniors, it was therefore little surprise to
see PGZ sell down further. Hey, I thought the 24c of last weekend was cheap so the 50k or so
shares that changed hands at 20c that day were an impressive bargain.
And then, suddenly, the tide turned and Thursday found buyers. It didn’t take much to move
the stock either (they don’t ring bells at bottoms or tops) but then Friday came and just a
couple of eager buyers were enough to shoot the stock to 30c (i.e. 50% up from that
Wednesday trough) before settling at 29c. After due consideration, that move smacks of one of
two possibilities:
 An arranged price has been decided for an upcoming placement
 A fat finger who will to learn a small lesson in the advantages of patience
No idea which one it will be yet either, even with the fun and price frolics. As I’m in no rush to
take a position before PGZ raises its next chunk of working capital, it’s more of a point of
observation at the moment, too. Once price and size (equally as important, they’ll need perhaps
$10m to get to the end of 2024) are known we can make a more informed decision and then
there’s the small matter of the Tax Loss Selling (TLS) season on the horizon, as this stock
traded between 35c and 45c for most of the year and may come in for selling pressure soon.
23

Another Provenance Gold (PAU.cse) update
Some better news about Provenance Gold PAU.cse reached this desk from two separate and
unrelated sources, giving us double the reason confidence to pass it on. We understand that
not only has the financing being run by PAU filled, but it is in the process of closing
oversubscribed. In the words of one of the unsolicited mails, “…things are taking a little longer
than expected to finalize” and that’s fair enough.
Assuming this comes to pass, expect PAU to make it to our Watch List as 2023 unwinds.
SilverCrest (SILV) (SIL.to) continues to lag the field
As a quick reminder, we started some soft coverage of SilverCrest Metals (SILV) (SIL.to) in IKN
dated July 30th, on the eve of that company publishing its updated 43-101 compliant technical
report on Las Chispas. When that report whacked the stock price hard the next week, we
followed up with a couple of notes in August weeks, then saw its 2q23 financials impress the
market and after receiving reader requests, we finally took a closer look at the stock in IKN745
dated August 27th in the main fundies report, “SilverCrest Metals Inc (SILV) (SIL.to):
Considering the financials.” That weekend the stock was priced at U$4.81 and after the number
crunch and due deliberation, with a gun to my head I put a U$5.51 price target on the stock
while making sure those reading understood that the likely major influence on SILV was the
price of the metals it sold, rather than its operations. The note finished with these words:
“If you’re in the market for a silver trade and are looking to speculate on
higher prices, SILV offers a quality way to add leverage and given the right
combination of market influences, it will go higher and make me look stupid
for not buying any. However and on due consideration, I think there’s more
potential reward in other places and will therefore pass on this good miner
that’s valued close to its correct level today.”
That was then, this is now and this weekend SILV is a U$4.76 stock, down about one percent.
By way of cruel, biased, mean, unfair comparison Equinox Gold (EQX), my best idea for spec
play in the larger producer world at the
moment, is up 5.8% in the same period and
even the unloved Fortuna Silver (FSM) is up a
point in the same lapse. That might not mean
much (and if you complain I’ll plead guilty as
charged to cherry-picking), but I couldn’t help
but notice how SILV has been trading weakly in
the last couple of weeks, as seen in this
comparative to GDX and the silver producers’
ETF (SIL).
If there’s one conclusion to draw, it’s that
24

majority gold companies are still a better bet than majority silver companies. Nothing against
SILV, I wish the company every success and would not have a problem in seeing my reticence
thrown back at me by a stock price that suddenly rockets higher, but I still see more appeal in
other names.
Conclusion
IKN748 is done, we end with some bullet points:
 In the week to come, aside from watching no end of presentations (though avoiding
the “fireside chats” and “round table” inanities, I’ll also be looking for better news for a
couple of the more painful current positions. For one Minera Alamos (MAI.v) is close to
delivering its financing package for Cerro de Oro and news on that will help support its
permitting track (which remains on schedule, no matter what the Mexico naysayers
might want you to believe). For another, the appeal process for Rio2 (RIO.v) was
rumoured to be slated for the end of this month and if that’s so, we’ll need to get ten
days’ notice of the event. That means this coming week and while there’s zero
guarantee of any South American bureaucracy delivering, we’re now in the right time
window.
 It’s good to see Equinox (EQX) showing relative strength and acting as envisaged when
opening the trade. Like any other trade in this sector, it’s not riskless and in this case,
its high cash cost makes it a double-edged sword as gold moves up and around in this
U$1,900/oz to U$2,000/oz range. But with Greenstone now on the horizon, there’s
plenty of value and an entry price under U$5 helps a lot.
 Meanwhile, the combo of Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) and copper is the new portfolio
concern. As much as I like the company and admire the way it’s run, I’m not married to
it and if copper turns South, the unexpected weakness in the ARG production numbers
this year means I’ll be forced to lighten, or even sell out completely. Watching the spot
price carefully.
 I planned to do more on Revival Gold RVG.v, essentially another “let’s wait until it runs
its financing potential trade. It has that in common with Pan Global (PGZ.v).
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stock is Minera Alamos (MAI.v). Flash
updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best wishes, Mark
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(A) https://www.gowebcasting.com/conferences/2023/09/12/precious-metals-summit
(1) https://www.goldforumamericas.com/program-agenda-gold-forum-americas/
(2) https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/09/schedule-for-week-of-september-17-2023.html
(3) https://amerigoresources.com/_resources/news/nr-20230911.pdf
(4) https://www.gowebcasting.com/events/precious-metals-summit-conferences-llc/2023/09/12/revival-gold-
inc/play/stream/36766
(5) https://staticcdn1.gowebcasting.com/documents/files/events/event_00003657_umyOWpM1.pdf
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(6) https://www.gowebcasting.com/events/precious-metals-summit-conferences-llc/2023/09/14/minera-alamos-
inc/play/stream/36858
(7) https://www.gowebcasting.com/events/precious-metals-summit-conferences-llc/2023/09/13/equinox-gold-
corp/play/stream/36826
(9) https://www.gowebcasting.com/events/precious-metals-summit-conferences-llc/2023/09/14/contango-ore-
inc/play/stream/36881
(10) https://www.gowebcasting.com/events/precious-metals-summit-conferences-llc/2023/09/13/abrasilver-resource-
corp/play/stream/36827
(11) https://www.gowebcasting.com/events/precious-metals-summit-conferences-llc/2023/09/12/western-exploration-
inc/play/stream/36750
(12) https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/copper-down-slightly-after-u-s-inflation-data/
(13) https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/copper-firms-ahead-of-major-chinese-indicators/
(14) https://arizonasonoran.com/news-releases/arizona-sonoran-drills-1.78-cut-over-639-ft-194.8-m-from-the-parks-
salyer-deposit/
(15) https://www.e29copper.com/news/2023/element-29-resources-closes-private-placement-of-286-million
(16)
https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anexo:Sondeos_de_intenci%C3%B3n_de_voto_para_las_elecciones_presidenciales_de_E
cuador_de_2023
(17) https://twitter.com/lahistoriaec/status/1702008790550303209
(18) https://twitter.com/ecuainm_oficial/status/1701645056279536074
(19) https://www.eluniverso.com/noticias/politica/daniel-noboa-y-luisa-gonzalez-demandas-conaie-leonidas-iza-
movimiento-indigena-nota/
(20) https://www.bloomberglinea.com/latinoamerica/argentina/gobierno-argentino-flexibiliza-el-cepo-a-la-mineria-
autorizan-siras-por-us12-millones/
(21) https://twitter.com/Mark_IKN/status/1697374308048281739
(22) https://www.cronista.com/economia-politica/encuesta-quienes-y-por-que-razones-votaran-a-javier-milei-en-octubre/
(23) https://www.lanacion.com.ar/politica/javier-milei-modera-sus-propuestas-de-gobierno-y-replantea-otras-consignas-
de-campana-nid17092023/
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2022
Closed in 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
Goldshore Res GSHR.v Nov'22 C$0.18 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 88.9% Quick profit taken
Palamina Corp PA.v Dec'22 C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.08 -72.9% Clear-out of underperformer
Pure Gold PGM.h Dec'22 C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.015 -89.3% tiny trade on vh risk, went Ch11
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Set-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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