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The IKN Weekly
Week 747, September 10th 2023
Contents
This Week: In Today’s Edition, Twenty-two years Fifty years, Recession thoughts.
Fundamental Analysis: The cheap copper at Pan Global Resources (PGZ.v).
Stocks to Follow: Minera Alamos (MAI.v), SolGold (SOLG.to), Fortuna Silver (FSM), AbraSilver
Resource Corp (ABRA.v), Aldebaran (ALDE.v), Minera IRL (MIRL.cse), Orecap (OCI.v).
Copper Basket: Overview, Element 29 (ECU.v), Atacama Copper (ACOP.v).
Producer Basket: Overview, Newmont (NEM) and Newcrest (NCM).
TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Palamina Corp (PA.v), Latin Metals (LMS.v).
Regional Politics: Colombia: The new mining law project still under wraps, Ecuador: Noboa
now favourite.
Market Watching: Still no close on the Provenance Gold (PAU.cse) financing.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
In Today’s Edition
 Today’s main fundies note takes a close look at Pan Global Resources (PGZ.v), a copper
exploreco that’s been developing its main project in Spain for a couple of years and
severely under-performing even its lacklustre peers so far in 2023. It’s a very
interesting case study and there’s a trade in this stock at some point, but there’s also
good reason to stay on the sidelines for the moment and wait for the right entry point.
 The other stand-out segment in today’s edition (in my opinion at least) is the update on
the Ecuador election, as we’re now getting to the point where there are actionable
trades in the offing. You need to consider the risk/reward for yourself and please note
that I’m not going to add to my own Ecuador exposure for the time being, but as
Daniel Noboa is now clear favourite to win the run-off election we can start to factor in
a post-election rally in all things Ecuador. Those include the mining stocks and we offer
some pointers on what might work as trades.
 I’m no expert on US macro expectations and never pretend otherwise, but we need to
track what’s happening in the world’s biggest economy as its effects knock directly on
to the metals market, to gold and therefore our sector of focus. This week’s intro is on
inflation thoughts
 Copper did not have a good week, all on the back of mediocre data out of China
(surprise). Not jumping to conclusions yet, as September can be a trappy month and
not indicative of true demand, but there’s a clear note of caution being sounded in
today’s Copper Basket section (along with notes on some very soft exploreco prices).
Twenty-two years
Let us never forget the heinous deeds of September 11th 2001, those who had their lives cut
short by the despicable acts of the terrorists and the sacrifices of the heroes who responded to
the day and saved the lives of many people, sometimes at the cost of their own. May 911
remain fresh in all our memories.
1

Fifty years
The other September 11th anniversary completes 50 years this time around, as Chile
commemorates the Coup d’État headed by Augusto Pinochet that deposed then-President
Salvador Allende (who committed suicide at his desk, rather than be arrested by the coup
leaders) and as a demonstration of how wounds on both sides have not healed, today Sunday
has seen clashes between left wing and right wing groups in Chile’s capital, Santiago. All rather
depressing
Recession thoughts
If you hadn’t noticed, there’s a debate raging about the likelihood of a recession in The USA. On
the one side, we have the biggest of the big firms such as Goldman Sachs publishing their
latest macro call this week “Soft Landing Summer” and here’s how CNN reported the report (so
to speak) (1):
“In a research report published Monday night, Goldman Sachs lowered its estimated
chance of a US recession over the next 12 months to just 15%.”
Those are CNN’s italics, not mine. On the other hand, you won’t need much more than five
minutes on your social media channel of choice and a couple of search words to find a legion of
experts insisting that recession is 1) inevitable 2) about to happen and of course 3) will be the
worst that the world has ever experienced. Not only that, but alongside the macro mavens
there are residential and commercial real estate experts will tell you their sector is dying, car
dealership people warning sales dropping off a cliff, bankers and lawyers and their anecdotes of
people seriously underwater on their mortgages as rates climb and my favourite as seen last
week, someone noting that Bill Gates bought shares in the company that produces Bud Light
because it’s statistically proven how people drink more in a recession to alleviate their woes.
However, one headline above all others grabbed my eyeballs as I started putting together this
weekend’s intro and looked online for an example report or two; This one from Bloomberg (2):
It didn’t stand out for the subheaders (they seem standard reasoning), not because Bloomie
decided to go the political angle and mention President Biden, either. Instead, it was the date
on the report that got me, October 17th 2022. In other words, that “100% Forecast” has five
weeks to go, then it becomes 0% and somewhere in that headline, there’s a moral about
working in calling absolute certainties in the financial markets.
Which brings us to the reason to drag this boring macro subject into today’s intro section and
warm it over again, a paper written by vice president at the St. Louis Fed, one Christopher J.
Neely (second name initial, oh yes), dated this past
Thursday September 7th and with the title line “What Is
the Probability of a Recession? The Message from Yield
Spreads” (3). This is a subject that’s close to your
author’s heart because, as noted on these pages on
many occasions since late 2022, one of the most
reliable gauges of recessions over the long-term has
been the US yield curve: when it inverts, the country
has a recession afterwards and as the updated chart
(right) shows, we’re still deeply inverted.
That would suggest recession is on its way, which is
why the article by Mr. Neely was of such interest to this
2

desk. It’s not a deeply technical argument but it is rather long-winded, so there are big chunks
quoted for you here. Those of you equally interested in the way the Fed really sees the
likelihood of inflation (instead of just chewing on the latest Powell/Yellen soundbite) are
encouraged to check out the link and read it all, here we’ll go with just part of the conclusion as
our TL:DR:
“In summary, the inverted yield curve is consistent with the claim that currently
monetary policy is moderately restrictive and that there is a relatively high probability of
recession in the next 12 months. But no forecast is certain.”
And that’s fair enough. The whole note was enough to reaffirm my own position that The
Vampire Squid is talking out of its back passage (once again, probably fading its own client
base) and that recession is the most likely 2024 scenario. That would be good for gold of
course, as traditionally the monetary metal out-performs in times of economic downturn. Not so
good for the industrial metals complex of course (and before you say anything, I’m sticking with
my copper-outlier theory that expects continued demand from China and a lack of supply to
support spot prices) but interestingly, one of the main beneficiaries of a recession scenario
would be the precious metals producers. The current beating taken by gold stock shares is all
about cost inputs rising and for that poster child, look no further than the barrel of West Texas
Intermediate oil. Therefore, if the recession narrative takes hold, energy prices will be among
the first to drop and if gold does what it’s supposed to do in the recession backdrop, suddenly
mining margins improve.
US Consumer Price Inflation (CPI)
We’ll see about that in the medium-term, first
we have data for near-term prices to contend
with as this coming week sees the US publish a
raft of data connected with inflation, including retail sales on Thursday and the Producer Price Index (PPI) on the same day, but the main
event is Consumer Price Index (CPI) on
Wednesday morning and on that, here’s our
updated tracking chart (right). The current
consensus is an add of 0.4% to CPI and a
headline YoY inflation rate of 3.6% (with core higher at 4.3%), so expect the wails of “inflation
not dead” from the peanut gallery. However, 3.6% wouldn’t be a bad read for the Fed and may
tip the market toward “not rate change” expectations at the next FOMC. That too would be
bullish for gold.
Enough of my meanderings, let’s get on with something more interesting.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
The cheap copper at Pan Global Resources (PGZ.v)
“It is silly of you, for there is only one thing in the world worse than being
talked about, and that is not being talked about. A portrait like this would
set you far above all the young men in England, and make the old men
quite jealous, if old men are ever capable of any emotion."
The Picture of Dorian Gray, Oscar Wilde, 1891
This stock has had me puzzled all year. We began coverage of Pan Global Copper (PGZ.v) in
2023, thanks to a reader suggestion to include it in the 2023 Copper Basket list (a regular
request at the end of every year, as long-term readers will be aware. It struck this desk as a
good idea because it represented a geographical area of the world that we didn’t have in what
is supposed to be a representative list, as well as other attributes, such as being the right size,
a decent management team and was set to be actively exploring its main project(s) this year.
As such it was one of the seven new entries on our 2023 list and to present the idea, here’s
how we put it in the intro to the new 2023 Copper Basket at the start of the year, in IKN711
3
4.1 7.1
6.2 2.4 0.5 4.5 4.5 3.5 4.5 2.6 8.6 0.7 5.7 9.7 5.8 3.8 6.8 1.9 5.8 3.8 2.8 7.7 1.7 5.6 4.6 0.6 0.5 9.4 0.4 0.3 2.3 6.3 5.3
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0
1.0
0.0
12'naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 22'naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 32'naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced
source: US BLS

dated January 1st 2023. Please find below the entire intro note as per IKN711 and its
accompanying 2022 12-month price chart for your consideration:
3) Pan Global Resources (PGZ.v): Another suggestion from more than one of you
out there (thank you reader DR and others), PGZ is one of those suggestions I greatly
appreciate as it adds some useful European representation to the list. The main reason
to like PGZ is its Escacena project, within which is the high grade La Romana target,
which is located next to the disputed but undoubtedly rich Aznalcollar project in the
rich and prolific Iberian Pyrite belt of Southwest Spain/South Portugal. Escacena has
plenty of prospective targets, but the principal and most exciting work to date is at La
Romana which has delineated a system grading around 1% copper from surface that
would be very amenable to open pit extraction. La Romana “shallows” is a good start
at the property, what we’d like to see from PGZ this year are exploration drilling results
from some of its outlaying targets to add new mineralized
zones and the potential for a second stage of mining once
La Romana is mined out. This may come from other at-
surface targets, or it may come from “La Romana Deep”
that could be developed once a pit has been dug to mine
out La Romana. At almost C$100m market cap, PGZ isn’t
cheap compared to its current copper tonnage count but
its prospectivity is undoubted and its strong address also
makes it a potential buyout candidate for its neighbours
working their own assets (e.g. Grupo Mexico). I’m good
about going with the reader reco on this stock, let’s see
how it does compares to peers.
Thank you once again, reader DR. As a result we’ve tracked
PGZ fairly closely this year and as you can just about make out in the above chart, back then
PGZ was a 46c stock. Now to update that visual, with the 2023 YTD price chart below left, and
the PGZ vs COPX (main copper producers’ ETF) below right:
Much to the surprise and of myself and others, January 1st was close to its top price of the year
and, from February to late July, PGZ went on a slow decline. So far so disappointing, but the
reason today’s closer look at this stock exists is the acceleration of the down move we’ve seen
in August and this current month. From a general 35c, PGZ.v has dropped sharply over the
Northern summer vacation break and that only continued in the last seven days, despite the
company returning positive drill assay news and indicating more good assay results from its drill
program in the near future. It’s quite a sequence, so before we go any further let’s set the
scene with the basic corporate structure information:
Shares out: 212.395m
Options: 16.77m
Warrants: Zero
RSU/DSU/PSU: 1.5m
Fully diluted: 230.665m
Current share price: C$0.24
Market Cap: C$50.97m
All prices are in Canadian Dollars unless stated. Forex U$0.75=CAD$1
4

From “Almost $100m and not cheap” at the start of the year, PGZ is now just over $50m in
market cap and with very little change to the share count, too (we’ll get to that in a moment).
What’s more (and unlike many other juniors we could mention) PGZ has seen considerable
success in its 2023 exploration program, as well as demonstrating strong ESG and CSR
credentials by recently securing a key surface rights agreement that should allow its main
targets to increase in size and add tonnage to what is already an interesting and prospective
flagship project. Which means it’s time for the quick overview of Escacena:
The Escacena Project
PGZ has a second-string project called Águilas (Eagles) in another part of the same region, but
our focus today is on its flagship Escacena
project in Andalucia, Southern Spain. Escacena is
ideally located in one of the premier mining
districts of all Europe (let alone Spain) and as
this map from its current corporate presentation
shows (right), it’s surrounded by past and
present working mines as well as several
exploration and development projects. While on
the subject, this link (4) takes you to that
presentation and it’s one of the better ones I’ve
read in recent times, full of solid information that
sets out how and what PGZ is looking to achieve
at this multi-target project. We’re not going into
the details in this overview today, so the
corporate presentation is a starting point for your
further DD on its program and objectives. Well
worth a download.
The Iberian Pyrite Belt has a long history of
mining works, with documented history of the region being the source for metals for the
earliest periods of the Roman Empire and anecdotal evidence of it being mined for thousands of
years before that. This is true mining country and has a deeply ingrained, generational mining
culture that sets this region apart from the regions of Spain that have proven more difficult to
perm it for mining operations in modern times (e.g. Galicia and the Northern coastal zone). In
this respect, PGZ score top for ESG, CSR or any other permitting related acronym.
Among the names on that map are the Las Cruces mine, owned by First Quantum (FM.to) and
located some 12km East of Escacena and something to keep in mind, as that small but very
profitable has been on residual production for the last couple of years. It has been moving to
permit its own underground extension project and the timeline points to permitting approval
around the start of 2014, but Las Cruces was to this point an open pit operation used to
handling larger daily throughput tonnages than it will do in the future, even if the permits arrive
on time and it moves further underground for its feed. Las Cruces began production in the
noughties and until 2020 was at full tilt, but as these charts show the last couple of years have
been tick-over only as it reprocesses low grade stockpiles and tailings and in the last five
quarters, has made a gross loss on operations.
FM.to Las Cruces copper cathode prod, per qtr
5
39251
66561
95221
43201 6274 9982 2223 5082 8722 9072 1432 9222 3902 9971
18000
16000
14000
12000
10000
8000 6000
4000
2000
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2
mt FM.to Las Cruces: Sales revs & gross profit, per qtr
100
90
80
70
60
50
40 30
20
10
0
-10
-20
source: FM data
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2
U$m
sales rev
gross profit
source: FM data

Anyone wondering whether PGZ at Escacena, just 12 km to the west of this production facility,
could find a willing buyer for a large and economically robust mineral resource need look no
further.
Away from FM’s past and future and moving to our main focus of the PGZ resource, as the
name suggests the Iberian Pyrite Belt (IPB) is known as one of the most important regions for
Volcaniic Massive Sulphide (VMS) deposits in the world and in recent year, as theoretical
knowledge of how this type of mineralization is formed, so the region has opened up to new
exploration and discoveries. In this PGZ at Escacena is a classic and typical example, as aside a
couple of small, old-time tunnel entrances to historic and long-worked out stopes, there was
little indication of what lay beneath before modern geological techniques were brought to bear.
Escacena is essentially a blind deposit, but the team has encountered tremendous exploration
success by employing the same tools used in other areas of the IPB VMS zone that centre
around geophysical method such as airborne and ground electromagnetics (EM) and gravity
surveys. The nature of VMS deposits is to form a series of high grading sulphide lenses and as
they are very distinct from the host rocks in the IPB (and tend to be at shallow depth, they
readily show using geophysics. Indeed, PGZ is (justly) proud to have hit mineralization in all the
140 holes it has put into Escacena to date, a remarkable hit rate for any project, let alone one
that’s blind at surface and while you’re picking up your copy of the latest corporate
presentation, also download this PDF (5) of all drill holes to end August (it’s only missing the
very latest, out last week), a very useful reference work.
This project map is the classic visual of Escacena:
A large project area, it’s marked by at least 20 target zones that have been generated by
geophysics surveys. The more promising have names and there are currently three with red
boxes around them denoting zones where active drilling campaigns are going on. To date, the
most important of those targets has been La Romana at the bottom of the map, while other
recent drill targets are Zarcita and Cañada Honda to the North of the concession. The latest
results from the company were reported from those last week (6) and while the Zarcita
numbers were somewhat patchy, Cañada Honda (which has nothing to do with Canada or
Japanese motor vehicles; “Honda” is Spanish word connected with depth and “Cañada” is a flat
area of ground between two mountains of a range, something like a valley but not) is now a
confirmed discovery zone, with strong grades and widths of classic VMS mineralization, e.g.
20m of 0.5% Cu, 0.8g/t Au, 1.9g/t Ag that’s open in nearly all directions. There’s more drilling
required and tomorrow Monday PGZ is holding a conference call to discuss these new results
(link to register here (7)).
However, there’s always a preferred zone in one of these target-rich projects and as good as
Cañada may be, the juiciest target is still La Romana and that’s not likely to change, either. Just
a couple of months ago and after protracted negotiations, the team managed to sign surface
access agreements to the target zones to the left of the visual above. Those include their new
6

#1 target, Romana West, which to all intents and purposes is almost certainly a continuation of
the mineralization discovered at La Romana. A drill campaign of up to 30 holes (around 200m
depth each one, this tends to be shallow laying mineralization) started on Romana West in July
and we should get results back from that portion of the campaign in the very near future. Visual
results from Romana West have been right in line with the rocks at La Romana and as
geophysics matches neatly, there’s every expectation that the current 1.2km or so of strike
length at La Romana will get extended another 800m or so to the West.
It’s tempting at this point to fill today’s report with a dozen or so of the visuals from the
corporate literature, as there are plenty of useful things to see and each has its own angle on
the project. However, I’m going to limit myself to just two more screenshots from the corporate
presentation and then urge you again to go get your own copy. This visual shows the way La
Romana and Romana West fit together, as well as the way La Romana has already been
Swisscheesed with drill holes and with some of the representative grades from the assays, to
boot. This is primarily a copper target and the sweet spots can grade at 1% and above in
copper alone, but the La Romana VMS comes with significant credits of tin (a hot fashion metal
at the moment) and silver. In other VMS zones of Escacena, there’s some gold kicker as well.
The second visual lifted from the corporate presentation (below) shows one of the sections (the
B section as seen in the visual above) and is also typical of what’s to be found at the project:
This is shallow lying mineralization with the lenses at a 40° to 45° angle, the location and dip
highly conducive to becoming an open pit
mining operation. That’s the same type of
mining seen nearby in, for example, Las
Cruces until recently or at the even closer
Aznalcollar mine, which was a highly
productive operation until it suffered a
catastrophic tailing dam failure in 1998 while
owned by Sweden’s Boliden. Now owned by
either Grupo Mexico or Emerita (depends
who you talk to) and the centre of its own
legal battle over ownership, at some point
Aznalcollar is certain to go back into
operation and make someone a very
profitable mine…right next door to La
Romana.
7

But back to La Romana mineralization and we now reach one of the weak points to this project
development story. Despite having literally hundreds of holes in and strong assays returned,
PGZ has so far not delivered a 43-101 compliant resource to market. For his own reasons, CEO
Tim Moody…
[Insert brief character assassination: highly experienced, ex-Rio Tinto and has been in the juniors
game for over a decade without any great successes but is still a peer-approved geologist and has
assembled a good team around him here. He’s somewhat expensive compared to other CEOS of this
type of company, but his salary is within the bounds of the acceptable]
…has decided to hold back on delivering any type of “snapshot” resource number and has kept
on drilling. On the one hand this is understandable, as we’ve seen far too many projects in
recent times be dismissed as “too small” in their early stages due to explorecos offering a
staged process of resource disclosure (e.g. Faraday at Copper Creek). Also, PGZ has the look
and feel of “the serious junior” that’s not trying to please the market and wow or score points
with the retail community at any given moment. It makes sense that when they have a multi-
target VMS deposit such as Escacena, they keep drilling and defining the resource until such
time as they can offer a representative 43-101 and on the back of that, develop at robust NMRE
(or perhaps just sell it to a neghbour). That’s the plan at PGZ for the 2023 / 2024 season and
by this time next year, we’re likely to have a Maiden Resourrce Estimate (MRE) under our belts
and perhaps a PEA study on the potential economics, too. However, there’s no getting round
the fact that without a 43-101 compliant technical resource this company is somewhat
hamstrung about what it can disclose and how it can therefore go about marketing itself to the
general public.
However, that doesn’t stop us on the outside from guessing. With the amount of drilling done,
we know enough about La Romana (main) grade, dimensions, SG etc to make educated
guesses as to what it contains. However, we then get to play “Where to draw the line”, as
Romana West is highly prospective and likely to contain big tonnages of the same type of
grade. Then there are the other target zones, such as the suddenly interesting Cañada Honda.
It’s very typical to see separate targets in a VMS deposits zone add to each other and build
quickly into a large, strong grading resource and we can be sure CEO Moody has this on his
mind as he holds off from delivering an MRE. In the case of La Romana we even have some
preliminary metallurgy work done that has shown its rocks are what you’d expect from a
Iberian Pyrite Belt VMS and, having been mined in the region for literally thousands of years,
the literature on optimizing recoveries and what to expect is out there.
At this point, it’s tough for an outsider to put an exact number of what we Escacena can offer,
but we can be sure of a few things and as such, here are some assumptions:
 There’s every reason to expect a Copper Equivalent (CuEq) grade of around 1% as a
minimum. While “Metal Equivalent” grades aren’t the best method to advance a project, at
this stage it’s a fair yardstick to get at least a ballpark figure on what the copper, tin, silver
(and a little gold) can offer an eventual processing facility.
 There is a clearly defined sweet spot to the La Romana resource of at least 10mmt (ten
million metric tonnes) grading at least 1% CuEq. There’s a decent case to make that as
much as 15mmt today, but a key part of these numerical ballpark exercises is to get in a
lowball baseline as well.
 It’s tempting to assume Romana West can add an other 10mmt. Early samples and geophys
indicates it’s the same rocks as Romana and the same approximate grade, with assay results
now pending, these results could quickly improve market awareness of this story.
 Then Cañada Honda and Zarcita have the potential to double again resource tonnage,
perhaps at a slightly lower grade (and perhaps not), but Cañada Honda is screaming fro
more drill work in the months to come.
 Then there are another 15 or so defined geophysical targets on the larger Escacena
property, any one of which could become the next La Romana.
8

So you stick a pin where you want in this table, for the time being I’m sticking in two places:
PGZ.v at Escacena: Estimated Contained Copper Equivalent Resource (Mlbs)
CuEq resource
mmt resource 0.8% 0.9% 1.0% 1.1% 1.2% 1.5%
10 176.4 198.4 220.5 242.5 264.6 330.7
15 264.6 297.6 330.7 363.8 396.8 496.0
20 352.7 396.8 440.9 485.0 529.1 661.4
25 440.9 496.0 551.2 606.3 661.4 826.7
30 529.1 595.2 661.4 727.5 793.7 992.1
35 617.3 694.5 771.6 848.8 925.9 1157.4
40 705.5 793.7 881.8 970.0 1058.2 1322.8
45 793.7 892.9 992.1 1091.3 1190.5 1488.1
50 881.8 992.1 1102.3 1212.5 1322.8 1653.5
source: IKN estimates and calcs from PGZ data
As a baseline, there are 220.5m lbs copper equivalent at strong grades, in a shallow zone of
mineralization that would make a very profitable open pit mine. How profitable?
 There’s a lot of data on costs of open pit mining in this region, so even if we
skew heavily conservative to account for present and even future inflation, at
the low overall strip rate and understood met and recovery levels, this would
be mined and processed at U$20/tonne.
 At a Copper Equivalent price of U$3.80/lb and 85% recoveries (likely higher,
but that’s a clear baseline), each metric tonne would pay U$71.20.
That’d do nicely. At that kind of theoretical margin, you can be wrong by a factor of two on
either costs or revenues and still be a profitable mine. At this point, we should also note that
First Quantum’s Las Cruces processing facility is currently laying all-but idle, just 12km away.
The capex involved in putting La Romana into production would be minimal. As recently at
2020, it was producing at a rate of 36mlbs copper cathode per year, so the baseline 220.5m lbs
CuEq resource just at La Romana would be good for five years of feed. In the meantime, the
rest of Escacena is developed and…well, I think you get the idea by now.
That, in a nutshell, is the attraction of a speculative trade in Pan Global Resources (PGZ.v) at
this time: We believe that even if by limiting to the unfeasibly lowball resource of 10mmt at
what is best known of La Romana, there’s clear upside to a market cap that holds robust mine
tonnages and can be sold to idle machinery nearby. However, the upside potential of this
resource is also crystal clear, as the geophysics work has generated target after target and with
Cañada and now (soon, hopefully) Romana West in the process of delivering on that promise,
the 10mmt total resource could multiply quickly. In my above table, my other highlighted box
assumes 25mmt at 1% CuEq to give a total contained resource of 551.2m lbs CuEq, but that
could easily be higher.
So why am I not a buyer at the moment? Apart from the general lack of market radar
generated by PGZ.v over time, its “serious junior” image and the way neither it or its team are
out trying to court the average retail punter, there’s one key reason why it’s best to hold off on
a trade or entry into Pan Global at the moment:
PGZ.v: Assets
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
9
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 tse32q2 tse32q3
$m fixed PGZ.v: Liabilities per qtr
other current 2.2
cash 2
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
source: company filings
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 tse32q2 tse32q3
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
LT liabs
current liabs

In fact, this is almost certainly the reason behind its recent price weakness. The overview
assets chart (above left) is small numbers because PGZ expenses, rather than capitalizes, or
exploration and evaluation costs. As for liabilities, that’s an optimum situation and what’s more,
there’s a pattern of paying down even the smallest uptick. Other prudent financial clues are the
way PGZ squirreled away $2m at the end of 2022 in an interest-bearing account that allowed it
to make a bit of interest while the cash lay fallow for a few months (we like that, good CFO
habits). But what really matters here are the cash and working capital positions (below):
The continued price slump had me dusting off the PGZ model and updating its numbers early
last week. Once that job was done and a few estimates added for the quarters to come of a
company going full swing on drilling and development, the way treasury is quickly dwindling
into this current tough market for capital raises saw the proverbial lightbulb go off over my
head. So when the La Cañada/Zarcita assay NR dropped and the market used the strong results
as just another liquidity event, it wasn’t much more than confirmation of what’s going on. As
seen above, we expect cash to go under $4m when the quarter ended July 31st is reported
(likely end of this month) and working cap at
around $3m. That’s not enough to support its
plans into 2024 and the market know it, the’ve
been crashing on the share price in order to get as
good as deal from the upcoming PGZ placement
as possible. Yes, it’s a dirty game. Is this news?
This chart (right) shows the typical quarterly cash
burn at PGZ, including the corporate and the non-
cash share-based payments. As you can see, the
lion’s share of expenses is at the project site, so of
we 1) zero in on that line item and then 2) break it
down into the main component parts, then finally
3) add some reasonable guesses for the next two reported quarters, it’s fair to say that PGZ will
need at least $2m per quarter to do the minimum, likely closer to three as they go back to
using three drill rigs rather than two.
PGZ: exploration and evaluation expenses, per qtr
2.75
2.50
2.25
2.00
1.75
1.50
1.25
1.00
0.75
0.50
0.25
0.00
10
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 tse32q2 tse32q3
PGZ.v: Cash treasury per qtr
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
C$m
other
tech services
Drilling
source: company filings, IKN calcs
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 tse32q2 tse32q3
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
20 PGZ.v: Working Capital per qtr
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 tse32q2 tse32q3
source company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
PGZ.v: Admin expenses
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1
C$m other exp
share payments
IR
mgmt fee
office/rent
Exp&Eval
source: company filings

In brief, PGZ needs to raise money and the trading desks know it. It’s being hammered down
on the open market due to its aggressive drill program, its stated plans and its future
development track, compared to a treasury position that isn’t going to last two quarters at the
current burn rate. If we then factor in that the last time PGZ raised was off roughly the same
“not quite fumes” treasury level, its upcoming assay newsflow from Romana West (likely to
cause a buzz) and the timing as we are now into the autumn financing window for juniors (as
well as the press-the-flesh conference season), it all points to a company that’s about to go to
market and raise a decent slug of working
capital. It’s not a easy guess as to how PGZ.v: Shares Out
much, but as this is the type of
management team that will want to do
things the serious way and secure the
funding it needs for all foreseeable plans,
I’m going to best-guess that raise
something in the region of C$10m. That
may end up with a share count slightly
higher (or lower) than the 250m
guesstimate you see here, but it’s a
reasonable marker for the time being.
Discussion and conclusion: I am no
longer puzzled about Pan Global Resources (PGZ.v), as its recent weak share price action is a
direct consequence of running short on money in a difficult market for funding exploration
stories. However and curiously, we can also be sure that its marked weakness of August that
has run over into September would not be as bad as it is if it weren’t for the fact that a lot of
eager desks are looking to take a position in this interesting story. It has the right ingredients:
 Good location and low political risk
 Good team
 Robust grades that make for strong ballpark economics
 A long list of highly prospective targets on its land package
 An exploration program that has its tiger by the tail and returns no-stop drilling success
 A development track toward a maiden resource in 2024
…and even has a logical exit strategy, with neighbours of the size of First Quantum or Grupo
Mexico that would make good use of the feed from La Romana and most likely its other VMS
lenses. However, at the moment its long-term prospects or even its medium-term development
plans are trumped by the near-term necessity of raising capital and until PGZ bites the bullet
and accepts the current lowball price as its marker for the raising, it’s unlikely to rally and make
a decent speculative trade.
Therefore, Pan Global Resources (PGZ.v) is most definitely a stock to watch as we go through
the 3q23 /4q23 financing window and if the expected happens, once the placement is closed
we may see a speculative opportunity arise. In the meantime, small fry such as your author are
advised to watch from the sidelines, while larger players reading these words (and I know
you’re out there) may well want to consider the terms of any eventual placement. This is a
good company doing the right things is a good location and targeting the metals that are going
to be in high demand as the world rolls out its energy transition plans. A worthy company to
watch going forward and, as such, one that is highly likely to make the Stocks to Follow Watch
List once we see the upcoming financing happen.
Stocks to Follow
For some reason, I thought Labo(u)r Day week would bring a raft of new interest and money
11
134.351 109.651
180.981 487.391 101.302 315.502 541.212 541.212 541.212 593.212 5.212 052 052
300
275
250
225
200
175
150 125
100
75
50
25
0
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 tse32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
source: company filings
serahs
fo
snoillim

into our beaten-down sector. Instead, I got to witness one of the most depressing four days of
trading I can remember and while it wasn’t the worst week ever suffered in strict numerical
terms (by a long way), the lack of interest in mining stocks and the way any news, no matter
whether positive or negative, was used as a liquidity event made for a tough week of tape-
watching.
There were just two week-over-week winners (OCI.v, RUG.v) and three others were unchanged
(ABRA.v, MIRL.cse, LBC.v), all the others were losers and that means all the main trades
dropped. The only mitigation is that most weren’t big drops and the biggest losers were
Newcore Gold (NCAU.v down 11.5%) and QC Copper (QCCU.v down exactly 10%), both of
those down 1.5c. With Latin Metals off the Watch List wer’re down to 20 covered stocks. Five of
thoseare in the green, one is unchanged, the rest are in the red.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.295 40.5% $0.75 first tgt, #1 idea
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Amerigo Res ARG.to STR BUY C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.38 1.5% Main Cu trade, top fundies
SolGold SOLG.to STR BUY C$0.265 19-Feb-23 C$0.245 -7.5% Cu in Ecuador, M&A tgt
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v BUY C$0.265 25-Apr-21 C$0.135 -49.1% delayed MRE now due end Q3
Equinox Gold EQX BUY U$4.46 30-May-23 U$4.61 3.4% Au leverage trade, trading well
Fortuna Silver FSM BUY U$2.92 13-Aug-23 U$2.78 -4.8% New trade, want quick flip
Faraday Copper FDY.to BUY C$0.79 26-Mar-23 C$0.68 -13.9% USA based Cu exploreco
Contango Ore CTGO BUY U$18.70 30-Jul-23 U$17.68 -5.5% new purchase IKN741
AbraSilver Res. ABRA.v SPEC BUY C$0.36 4-Dec-22 C$0.325 -9.7% added for last time Mar'23
Newcore Gold NCAU.v SPEC BUY C$0.205 23-Oct-22 C$0.115 -43.9% Financing closed, bottom in
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v BUY C$0.83 22-Apr-18 C$0.23 -72.3% Cheap on permit probs, appeal
SPECULATIVE TRADES
Orecap inv OCI.v SPEC BUY C$0.04 20-Nov-22 C$0.04 0.0% corp revamp, new strategy
Western Explor. WEX.v SPEC BUY C$1.87 9-Apr-23 C$0.85 -54.5% Au spec in USA, started badly
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v SPEC BUY C$0.72 16-May-21 C$0.88 22.2% now in drill assay season
Minera IRL MIRL.cse avoid C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.02 -89.7% run into ground byCEO, AVOID
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
Marimaca Copper MARI.to WATCH C$3.65 26-May-23 C$4.02 10.1% Likely buy, want cheap entry
Surge Copper SURG.v WATCH C$0.11 18-Jun-23 C$0.095 -13.6% tinycap Cu in BC Canada
Libero Copper LBC.v WATCH C$0.065 2-Jul-23 C$0.045 -30.8% Watching for Arg drill permit
Rugby Resources RUG.v WATCH C$0.06 26-Mar-23 C$0.05 -16.7% tinycap Cu in Colombia
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.63 6-Dec-20 C$0.41 -34.9% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2023 date closed close price
Altiplano Metals APN.v jan'23 C$0.31 17-Sep-21 C$0.17 -45.2% delayed and will dilute soon
Western Copper WRN.to mar'23 C$2.02 13-Nov-22 C$2.32 14.9% sold on reduced M&A prob.
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v may'23 C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$1.75 -43.0% Closing on legal action news
Amerigo Res ARG.to may'23 C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.48 8.8% sold 20% to raise cash
2015 to 2022 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on a few of our covered companies:
SolGold (SOLG.to): This will continue to be my play on Ecuador and the risk involved there.
While SOLG has had a rough time of it recently, the rise of Noboa to clear favourite in the
upcoming run-off election should work for this company, as well as others in Ecuador. See
Regional Politics for more, below.
12

Minera Alamos (MAI.v): Despite finishing down on the week, the loss was only 0.5c and
along the way, MAI showed plenty of signs of having a hard value buyer ready to step up at the
28c level (as seen right). It’s still rather sad and wholly unjust to have this trading as low as it
is, but at least there’s a line in the sand being drawn under its price now.
Fortuna Silver (FSM): FSM dropped 7% last week and didn’t deserve that treatment, so this
desk considers the current share price as an excellent entry point for any of you sitting on the
fence about this trade (after all, I think anything under U$3 is a great price and put my money
where my mouth is, as well).
We got two NRs from FSM last week, the first on
Tuesday announced interested exploration drilling
results from its San José mine in Oaxaca State Mexico
(8), the headline, “Fortuna intersects 1,299 g/t Ag Eq
over a true width of 9.9 meters at the San Jose Mine,
Mexico” telling us there’s both grade and great
mineable width. The NR went on to explain that while
it’s early days, this was a real discovery of an
apparently new and unknown vein system that could
add tonnage and mine life to the asset. All good you’d
have thought, but instead as seen here…
…the market decided to amplify the downturn seen in the sector (GDX proxy) and dump FSM
hard. But if that weren’t enough, the second NR on Thursday September 7th (9) saw more
selling instead of the reaction that I on the sidelines expected. The title “Fortuna announces
successful completion of process plant performance test at the Séguéla Gold Mine, Côte
d´Ivoire” tells you most that you need to know and essentially, Séguéla is now out of its
commissioning phase and in commercial production. However, the details make things even
better, considering the early stages of this mine. FSM included this little table in the NR…
…that puts 3q23 production at FSM’s new mine at 17,693 oz au with September left to add, so
with the commissioning going according to plan it’s fair to assume September will at least equal
and most likely beat the August monthly total. That compares…
13

FSM: Consolidated gold production by qtr
110000
100000
90000
80000 34000
70000 4023 22000
60000
50000 28235 24553 27130 26190 26437 29002 26000 26000
40000
30000
20000 30068 29016 30032 29301 25258 25456 26000 26000
10000
8239 8295 9091 8499 8231 5778 8500 9000
0
14
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
Oz Au
San Jose Lindero
Yaramoko Séguéla
Caylloma
source: FSM data, IKN ests for 3q24/4q24
…to our estimate of 22,000 oz from Séguéla this quarter, as seen in our analysis of IKN. As
things stand, we may get as many as 30,000oz from Séguéla in 3q23 and if so, FSM might push
at the 90k oz Au line for the quarter as long as its other mines play ball. The idea of buying
FSM at this point was always to take advantage of the re-rate we expect from its sharply
improving production mix as Séguéla comes online (and its other operations get their collective
act together, e.g. Yaramoko). The news flow and price action last week has improved the
chances of FSM providing a 3q23 earnings blowout and at the same time, saw the stock get
substantially cheaper. This is a great window to buy as long as metals prices hold up. …and
that’s the risk, obviously.
AbraSilver Resource Corp (ABRA.v): This stock is picking up promo pump in the social
media channels, whether that’s good or bad is up to you to decide. The usual suspect type
channels are talking up the imminent arrival of the updated resource estimate and all good
things around it, but we should also be aware of how ABRA is now getting low on treasury,
burns cash quicker than most explorecos and is likely in need of a top up placement at some
point. The fundamentals of Diablillos remain excellent and it’s why I’m here, but it’s my only
silver trade and I’m not married to the position, either. At some point and if there’s a price
spike, I may let this one go and chalk another silver investment down to experience.
Aldebaran (ALDE.v): The placement set to close last week and raise $17.5m is now set to
close in a few days’ time and raise $20.1m, according to this NR dated September 8th that
announced an expansion of the placement of just over 3m shares (10). We therefore estimate
the new shares out total at 175.554m, pending confirmation on closure of the financing. The
result is a well cashed-up exploreco with enough to execute on its plans for 2023 and probably
all of 2024, which is a good place to be and compares well to a lot of peers out there at the
moment, scrabbling for cash in the public markets and getting nowhere. The big company
interest has kept the stock price firm as well, though we’re still waiting on exploration and drill
assay results upside (why we’re in this trade, after all). So what’s missing from the ALDE story
is newsflow from the field, rather than the corporate office.
Minera IRL (MIRL.cse): The August shipment data was filed to the CSE on Friday and tells
us Corihuarmi sold 1,607 oz Au in the month, so a better quarter in store than the dismal 2q23.
However, we reads in the local press that the communities around the mine are once again up
in arms about the mine and are now threatening to block the road in/out at the end of this
month if MIRL refuses to make good
MIRL: 2022/23 Corihuarmi gold shipments, per month
on the deal it reached last year.
Meanwhile, the liars and thieves in its
head office are trying to spread the
rumour in Lima that “The Chinese” are
about to buy Ollachea, which is
insane. Far more likely is that China money will bid when Cofide puts
Ollachea up for auction in 2024.
8981 3191 6521 6521
3782
0211 1691 5502 0911 8271 3212 0951 7971
439
1321 3461 9551
748
4391 7061
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500 1000
500
0
22naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 32naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua
Oz Au
contained oz
shipments
source: MIRL filings

Meanwhile, the fake wash trades continue to prop the stock at 2c, those shares are worth 2c
less than that price. Avoid like the plague.
Orecap (OCI.v): Worth a mention as it jumped sharply on Tuesday, the first day of trading
last week, on decent 300k+ volume. But that’s about it and overall, it looks like one
small/medium player taking a position in a stock that undoubtedly offers value, but isn’t setting
the world on fire yet.
The Copper Basket
After thirty-six weeks of 2023, The Copper Basket shows a loss of 9.33% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Solaris Res SLS.to 6.44 146.599 785.77 5.36 -16.8%
2 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.22 92.882 373.39 4.02 24.8%
3 Western Copper WRN.to 2.41 151.597 283.49 1.87 -22.4%
4 Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to 1.92 105.96 171.66 1.62 -15.6%
5 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.78 175.554 154.49 0.88 12.8%
6 Oroco Res OCO.v 0.91 216.13 151.29 0.70 -23.1%
7 Hot Chili HCH.v 0.78 119.455 137.37 1.15 47.4%
8 Faraday Copper FDY.to 0.54 175.2 119.14 0.68 25.9%
9 Regulus Res. REG.v 1.10 124.509 108.32 0.87 -20.9%
10 Pan Global Res PGZ.v 0.46 212.395 50.97 0.24 -47.8%
11 Kodiak Copper KDK.v 1.12 56.2 37.65 0.67 -40.2%
12 QC Copper QCCU.v 0.165 162.815 21.98 0.135 -18.2%
13 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.16 86.966 13.91 0.16 0.0%
14 Libero Copper LBC.v 0.155 119.58 5.38 0.045 -71.0%
15 Atacama Copper ACOP.v 0.16 35.94 7.19 0.20 25.0%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg -9.33%
Just when you thought it was safe to go back in the water. The Copper Basket average dropped
3.3% last week, giving back the quick gains from
The Copper Basket 2023, weekly evolution
the last week in August, dashing hopes of a 12%
10%
Labo(u)r Day rally and pushing the average to its
8%
new 2023 low. All rather uninspiring, to say the 6%
4%
least. There were three week-over-week winners 2%
(OCO.v, ASCU.to, ACOP.v) and of those, Atacama 0%
-2%
Copper (ACOP.v up 11.1%) was by far the -4%
biggest. One stock remained unchanged (LBC.v) -6%
-8%
which means eleven losers, with two of them, -10%
Solaris (SLS.to down 10.2%) and QC Copper
(QCCU.v down 10.0%) breaking the double figure
percentage loss line of shame and ignominy.
The weak market for juniors caused by the weak market for copper, QED. Here’s a six month
chart to show how we’ve fallen back to this
persistent U$3.70/lb line, once again. Clearly
there is some level of market fluctuation, as
U$3.90/lb has been visited by the near-dated
futures contract as much as the current level
over the Northern summer period, but in
historical terms this is still a tight trading
range as the world cannot seem to decide
whether copper should be cheaper or more
expensive than it is.
15
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2yluj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6gua ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3pes ht01
source: IKN calcs

We continue to live in a market that is happy to pay over U$8,000/mt (U$3.62/lb) for copper
but refuses to pay anything approaching U$9,000/mt (U$4.08/lb).
In fundies news, on the demand side we read last week (11) that according to its customs
authorities, copper imports into the main market China rose moderately in August to 473,330.4
metric tonnes compared to the July total of 431,720.2mt, though both those months are lower
than the 482,776.2mt of June. Those are reasonable numbers, but they’re not gangbusters
either and what with the signal coming from the futures markets of higher stored inventories
(see below), there was enough newsflow to put a lid on spot copper prices.
Meanwhile in supply news, we turn to the biggest copper producer in the biggest copper
producing nation. The new management at Cochilco made their first public policy statement
plans last week by offering up to U$4.1Bn in new senior unsecured bonds via Scotiabank New
York. Here’s an excerpt from this Bloomie note (12):
But under new boss Ruben Alvarado — its third chief executive officer in a little over a
year — Codelco is stepping up spending rather than scaling back.
The new bonds will help finance $4.1 billion of expenditure this year amid plans to
revive output. The company said this week it’s aiming to produce 1.7 million tons a
year by the end of the decade, up from 2023 guidance of as much as 1.35 million tons
Alvarado is a Codelco long-termer, having run the El Teniente division mine for many years and
has been brought in with a mandate to improve the State run company’s production outlook.
This first bonds offering is one of many and numbers as high as U$40Bn have been bandied
about in Chile this week as the total investment plans needed to turn Codelco around. We
remind readers of the chart we ran only last week, which suggests that even the current official
forecast for Codelco production in 2023 may be optimistic and 1.3mmt looks closer to the final
number.
Chile: Total copper production per year, 1990 to 2022
Now for our regular weekly review of copper inventories, data as usual from Chile’s Cochilco:
 A different week for inventories, as we saw a significant add to the aggregate total of
35,318mt across the three official world futures systems, adding up to 215,136mt this
weekend.
 The Shanghai SHFE saw its third add in three weeks, this time up 8,364mt to close
Friday at 54955mt. While supply is still very tight, three weeks of improving inventories
adds fuel to the fire of those who claim a slump in demand.
 However, the big news was the increase in LME inventories, up a cool 29,850mt to
close at 134,125mt. That marks a double+ from the historic low point we hit in March
and April this year. Once again we saw large tonnage arrive in its New Orleans depot,
that took 15,775mt and over half the total tonnage, which again suggests that copper
is being hoarded in The Americas (it’s not easy to see NO tonnage finding a real end
user). Notably, cancelled warrants remain extremely low and give another signal of
16
393
591,1
986
621,1
677651,1 619
931,1
680,1431,1 423,1
561,1
598,1
122,1
161,2
132,1
482,2
304,1
488,2
805,1
680,3
615,1
741,3
295,1
160,3
025,1
243,3
365,1
976,3
337,1
395,3
827,1
586,3
676,1
479,3
385,1
168,3
664,1
296,3
207,1
037,3
986,1
825,3
537,1
787,3
746,1
451,4
226,1
980,4
276,1
040,4
237,1
548,3
807,1
077,3
437,1
451,4
876,1
991,4
885,1
511,4
816,1
500,4
816,1
588,3
644,1
009,3
003,1
6,500
6,000
5,500
5,000
4,500
4,000 3,500
3,000
2,500 2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
0991 1991 2991 3991 4991 5991 6991 7991 8991 9991 0002 1002 2002 3002 4002 5002 6002 7002 8002 9002 0102 1102 2102 3102 4102 5102 6102 7102 8102 9102 0202 1202 2202 3202
MMT Cu
Total Non-Codelco
Total Codelco
source: Cochilco

slack demand and a fully supplied market at present. We’ll see if that continues when
the traditional Q3 demand cycle pick-up comes along.
 The only drop was again at the Comex, losing 2,896mt to close at 26,056mt.
The first of our two dedicated SHFE tracking charts shows how the increase in inventory moved
the line away from the 2022 level of the same time last year, but not by much. The second
chart, taking in the longer-term, shows that we’re still at very low levels compared to a normal
year (whatever normal might mean).
SHFE copper inventory levels, 2018 to 2023
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
17
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
MT Cu 2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
source: Cochilco data
Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2014 to date
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
31'13ceD dr32 ht51 ht7 ht03 dn22 ht71 ht9 ts1von ht42 ht71 ht01 dn2tcO 7102ts1naJ ht62 ht81 ht01 dr3ced ht52 102ht72rpa ht91 ht11 9102
dr3bef
102ht82rpa ts12 ht31 0202ht5naj 202ht92ram ts12 ht31 0202ht6ced ht82 dr32 ht51 ht7 202ht03naj ht42 ht71 2202ht9tco 3202
naJ
ht62 ht81 ht01
Mt Cu
|
source: Cochilco
Now for notes on a couple of basket stocks.
Element 29 (ECU.v): In something of the same vein as ALDE (see Stocks to Follow, above),
ECU pulled a bit of a surprise by expanding on its open and late-closing placement. However,
this financing has become a longer saga and it’s unusual to see one go on this long and end
this positively. Even more unusual in the current soft market. To remind readers, this odyssey
began on May 30th when ECU filed for a placement for “up to $2m” (13) priced at 18c per unit,
only to withdraw that offer on July 31st and replace it with one (14) to raise $2m by selling
13.333m units at 15c (unit = share + full warrant at 25c with a 2 year shelf life). That was due
closed at the end of August and was late, so the NR on Thursday September 7th (15) that told
us that…”…due to investor demand it has increased the size of the non-brokered private
placement” to 19.333m units at the same terms as before. Assuming this closes in good order,
a surprisingly good result for the ECU treasury after such a long delay. We’ll adjust the share
count accordingly come the time, but put this and the ALDE upsizing together and it smacks of
insto money looking around and trying to position in copper exploration stories while market
sentiment remains at a low ebb.
Atacama Copper (ACOP.v): Whoever bought those 1.4m
shares at 18c two Wednesdays ago (see IKN746 last weekend)
is protecting their investment (chart right). Thin thin volume
and the biggest percentage rise of the week…it’ll all end in
tears.

The Producer Basket
After 36 weeks of 2023, the Producer Basket shows a loss of 1.83% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 47.20 799 30.95 38.73 -17.9%
2 Barrick GOLD 17.18 1761.54 27.80 15.78 -8.1%
3 Agnico Eagle AEM 51.99 488.9 23.16 47.37 -8.9%
4 Wheaton PM WPM 39.08 451.963 19.05 42.16 7.9%
5 Kinross Gold KGC 4.09 1256.1 5.99 4.77 16.6%
6 Alamos Gold AGI 10.11 393.1 4.64 11.81 16.8%
7 B2Gold BTG 3.57 1074.567 3.26 3.03 -15.1%
8 Hecla Mining GFI 5.56 610.491 2.44 4.00 -28.1%
9 Eldorado Gold EGO 8.36 185.73 1.76 9.46 13.2%
10 Wesdome Gold WDOFF 5.53 147.526 0.86 5.83 5.4%
All prices and stock quotes in U$ Port. avg -1.83%
It was also a rotten week for producer basket. Gold down, silver down, oil up and sure enough,
the GDX lost all the gains it had added the week before last. As smaller cap producers were hit
harder in normal fashion, our list lost ground against the benchmark and after a single week of
having our nose in front, we’re back playing catch-up. All ten of our basket components were
losers, from the “least worst” Eldorado (EGO down 1.1%) and Newmont (NEM down 1.5%) to
the biggest losers Hecla (HL down 8.1%) and Wesdome (WDOFF down 6.7%), with all stops in
between.
The 2023 Producer Basket: Percentage difference
between GDX benchmark & basket (negative = IKN ahead)
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
Newmont (NEM) and Newcrest (NCM): Just in time for Beaver Creek (Sep 12th to 15th, i.e.
this coming week and the Denver Gold Show (Sep
17th to 20th), after receiving green lights from
several country anti-trust bodies NEM announced
on Thursday (16) the (deep breath) “…special
meeting of stockholders and the filing of its
definitive proxy statement in connection with the
Company’s proposed acquisition of Newcrest
Mining Limited (ASX, TSX, PNGX: NCM) by way of a
Scheme of Arrangement (“Scheme”). Newmont
notified stockholders that the meeting will take
place virtually on Wednesday, October 11, 2023, at
8:00 a.m. Mountain Daylight Time” (breathe out).
Plenty of words, but the market liked the news:
That was enough to see NEM (and NCM for that matter) run positively compared to the GDX
benchmark. Under normal circumstances that wouldn’t even be worth a line in a backwater
junior mining newsletter, but this is NEM in 2023 and…
18
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2yluj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6gua ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3pes ht01
The 2023 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
comparative to GDX control
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
source: IKN calcs, NYSE data
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2yluj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6gua ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3pes ht01
ikn
gdx control
source: NYSE, IKN calcs

…the world’s #1 freely traded gold mining company* has had a terrible time this year, so
seeing it perk up on news that its mega-deal is on the last lap and about to happen makes it
newsworthy indeed.
The TinyCaps List
After 36 weeks of 2023, the TinyCaps show a gain 25.19% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Aurelius Min AUL.v 0.07 49.787 1.00 0.02 -71.4%
Coast Copper COCO.v 0.045 64.001 3.52 0.055 22.2%
District Metals DMX.v 0.075 86.891 17.81 0.205 173.3%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.13 69.962 8.40 0.12 -7.7%
Manitou Gold MTU.v 0.02 344.568 18.95 0.055 175.0%
Nine Mile Metals NINE.cse 0.29 57.025 4.85 0.085 -70.7%
Palamina Corp PA.v 0.08 65.285 8.49 0.13 62.5%
Precipitate Gold PRG.v 0.075 130.367 8.47 0.065 -13.3%
South Star STS.v 0.55 40.129 20.47 0.51 -7.3%
Viva Gold VAU.v 0.14 106.721 13.34 0.125 -10.7%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 25.19%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $20m. They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a
little and allowed sub-U$20m market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, but it was a particularly depressing exercise to trawl through the whole of the TSXV and find companies
that are small enough, but with life in them. The vast majority of sub-$20m stocks are broken stocks, either
traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2023. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
Even though there was just one winner on the TinyCaps TinyCaps, 2023 weekly tracker
50%
list last week, the basket average only lost a few 45%
hundredths. That’s because the only winner Latin 40%
35%
Metals (LMS.v) improved by 41.2% and there’s a note
30%
on that big move below. Three others were unchanged 25%
20%
(AUL.v, DMX.v, MTU.v) and the other six were losers,
15%
but quite literally none of those drops were more than a 10%
5%
penny. In sum, the market continues to ignore the tiny
0%
caps end of the exploreco market and that’s not good.
19
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2yluj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6gua ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3pes ht01
source: IKN calcs, TSX data

Palamina Corp (PA.v): Keeping tabs on PA’s extremely slow permitting process fo its
proposed Usicayos drill program, we hear that it has received one of the key permits, still
requires its water permit but did get its site visit from the Peru Water Authority (ANA) person
this week, which means that final permit should be in its hands “in the next couple of weeks”
(which means anytime in 2023, if Peru bureaucracy is involved). The plan, therefore remains
the same and if the permit arrives before the good weather window closes and the rainy season
appears (December being typical), they will drill this year. If not, it’ll be 2024.
PA is worth watching and I’ll almost certainly retain it for the
2024 TinyCaps list, but currently not high on the shopping
list.
Latin Metals (LMS.v): the only TinyCap stock with any
significant movement last week, the ten-day chart shows
that trading was thin and it only took a couple of 20k
purchases to move it back up to the 12c close we saw on
Friday.
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future
I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
Colombia: The new mining law project still under wraps
We’re now well into the second year of Gustavo Petro’s presidency and having recently ridden
out the scandal kicked up by his own son’s legal deposition, his government is now trying to re-
gain the initiative in Congress to push through its law reforms. One of those is the much-
anticipated and much-delayed mining law reform that Petro announced would be sent to
Congress in his (quasi) State of Nation speech last month. The law bill still hasn’t shown, not
even in pre-hearing committee, but this hasn’t stopped rumours and hearsay about its contents
from doing the rounds and according to Bogotá’s jungledrums, one of the most likely parts of
the reform is the government’s plan to demand “Prior Consultancy” (Consulto Previo) hearings
from mining companies large and small before any new mining this Colombian law reform will
insist that even exploration work will be subject to community hearings and agreements before
work is allowed to begin. In other words, if passed your junior exploreco need to run a “prior
consultancy” for the simplest of exploration drill programs on a new target in Colombia, or even
if you want to do some trenching work.
Said it before and will say it again: Avoid Colombia.
Ecuador: Noboa now favourite
Be clear, I am not calling this election. This is Ecuador, it’s the mini Basket Case country and for
more evidence of “Anything Can Happen” look no further than the assassination of the
candidate in Round One that now seems to have become a shoulder-shrugging “Yeah well
these things happen” incident fixed firmly in the past. In fact, he was murdered in cold blood by
hit men connected to narcotrafficking just 32 days ago.
However and with context in place, it’s now clear Daniel Noboa is favourite for the run-off on
October 15th and for two main reasons:
1) Polls give him a clear advantage
2) CONAIE is set to remain neutral in this election
Regarding point one, the latest opinion poll on the run-off between Daniel Noboa and Luisa
González was published on Friday (17). It was taken by polling company Click Research
20

between September 2nd and 4th, asking 3,040 in a face-to-face interview with a full simulation
that included giving those questioned a secret ballot paper poll for their vote. All geogrpahical
zones of Ecuador were included, the confidence level is 95% and the estimated margin of
errors +/- 3%. In other words, the type of "old school" opinion poll that typically returns the
most reliable results. As for the main finding:
 Daniel Noboa: 45.78% of total votes, 55.16% of valid votes
 Luisa González: 37.22% of total votes, 44.84% of valid votes
 Spoiled Ballot: 12.52%
 "Vote in White": 4.48%
This tallies well with the poll we reported last weekend and ratifies the approx 10 point lead
(i.e. five point swing) apparently enjoyed by Daniel Noboa.
Regarding point two, last week’s summit of CONAIE connected indigenous groups came to an
initial decision not to support either of the run-off candidates. It’s a little more complex that
that and the indigenous groups are clearly playing their own political agenda carefully, but to
sum up the situation this translated segment from this report on the summit (18) does a good
job of putting the main points in one place. It begins by quoting CONAIE head Leonidas Iza:
“In this second election round, the indigenous movement of Ecuador will not align with
either of the two candidates. In the context of the second round, we will promote our
agenda of struggle that we have sustained since 2019 and 2022. We would like
citizens, authorities and the presidential candidates to talk about our agenda of
struggle. In this case, our vote will not be conceded to anybody, but only toward an
agenda that this country needs to resolve”, said the leader of CONAIE, in declarations
to the press.
However, Iza stated that in the final days before the election and after listening to the
(proposals from the) presidential candidates, CONAIE would make a further
declaration of it position.
Later in the week CONAIE published its official declaration (19), which included an 11 point
agenda defining its position as being “Left Wing”, “Anti-Neoliberal”. Its eleven points were
essentially the same as the demands behind the two social protests of 2019 and 2022 which
saw the indigenous communities take to the streets in mass marches. As regards mining, point
3) of the eleven reiterated its demand for a moratorium on the development of all mining
concessions in the country until such time as a prior consultancy had been conducted on each
one and the local population had voted in favour of the mine concession.
Now the equation: Put points one and two together, the result is Luisa González has a problem.
She has hit the “Never Correa” ceiling and needs some sort of deal with a large and politically
21

powerful grouping. The only one that fits the bill is CONAIE and, while Leonidas Iza & Co have
essentially left the door open by saying that CONAIE will listen and watch the candidates for
signs they are willing to align with the CONAIE agenda, it would mean taking a hard Left turn in
a run-off election, instead of doing what’s always required in a run-off and moving toward the
political centre and capturing as much of the floating/undecided vote as possible. González will
not be able to make open overtures to CONAIE, her chances of an alliance come from a
backroom deal that’s subsequently announced to the world and CONAIE/Iza isn’t going to go
that route. Instead, CONAIE and Leonidas Iza seems to be content in letting this election slide,
knowing that the mandate is only until 2025 and the next election will be along soon enough, at
which point the political scenario would have likely changed again.
Discussion: Daniel Noboa has shown himself to be a good debater and his well-financed team
ran an effective, professional campaign to get him into the run-off, those factors are unlikely to
change for the worse between now and October 15th. Essentially, he is cut from the same cloth
as current President Guillermo Lasso and as he’s now clear favourite for this election and to
become President-Elect, that’s bound to please the business community and outside investors.
We should also note that not only is he strongly pro-mining, but he and his family (via the
“Nobis” investment arm of very rich and successful Álvaro Noboa, Daniel’s father) are direct
investors in mining projects, e.g. the El Domo/Curipamba project of Adventus Mining (AZDN.v)
and Salazar Resources (SRL.v). That Noboa’s politics and ideology are similar to those of the
Guillermo Lasso is, of course, a double-edged sword. After all, this election is taking place
precisely because Lasso has been forced out of office. Over the medium-term, Noboa’s free
market capitalist (or neoliberal if you prefer to take the negative) stance is a recipe of conflict
and more social issues in Ecuador, but first things first and assuming that he wins the vote next
month, he’ll get his (brief?) honeymoon period and the country will enjoy a boost in credit and
approval from the world of investments and so forth. With that in mind:
 This weekend, we rate Daniel Noboa an 80% probability of being the next President of
Ecuador. If it were a normal country that would be more than enough to make a proactive
call on the election, unfortunately Ecuador is not a normal country so we’re going to leave it
at a “likely win” for the moment.
 The main risk to Noboa is still some sort of deal between CONAIE and Luisa González, but
last week’s decision by CONAIE significantly reduced that possibility. Though she’ll battle
hard and comes across as a good candidate, Luisa González is now banging against the
“Never Correa” ceiling and despite the gains made by the Citizens Revolution (RC) party in
the municipal elections early this year, the Anti-Correa feeling is still strong for the main
national job. Ecuador rank and file are under no illusions and understand a vote for Luisa is
a proxy vote for Rafael Correa, who would then march into the country triumphantly and see
his arrest and detention warrants duly quashed by the incoming administration, thereby
setting him up for his own run in 2025.
 Plenty of observers will want to see how the live TV debate on October 1st (90 minutes of
moderated Q&A, just the two candidates on show) goes, as one or other of the candidates
may try to court favour with surprise policy announcements. However, your author believes
that most of Ecuador has already made up its mind and, as the two candidates are
experienced politicians with good debate and oratory techniques, the debate is likely to be a
wash.
 If we assume a Noboa win, mining stocks will rally, as will most other Ecuador financial
vehicles (bonds etc). Therefore, those readers with the required risk tolerance should
consider positioning during September, before the debate happens.
Bottom line: Noboa is now looking good. As for the potential vehicles, it’s certainly not my own
cup of tea but it would be dumb of me not to point out Adventus Mining (AZDN.v) as a
potential trade, or perhaps Salazar Resources (SRL.v) as an alternative. There may be blowback
against a President-Elect having a direct say in the investment of the Curipamba/El Domo
project in the medium-term (it may even turn out to be a flashpoint later down the line), but it’s
not rocket science to note that with Nobis as seed investors in the project and the scion in
22

charge of the country, the project would suddenly see its permitting track become a lot easier.
Aside AZDN or SRL, potential trades include my own preferred SolGold (SOLG.l) (SOLG.to),
which I believe will work well enough whoever wins this year. Solaris Resources (SLS.to) has
plenty of community issues to contend with but also has the volume and width required for a
flip trade. Two others that come to mind are Lumina Gold (LUM.v) and Luminex Resources
(LR.v), both Ross Beaty plays (therefore plenty of promo bandwidth if things go well) and with
the latter recently making progress on its sticky community relations by coming to agreements
with artisan mining cooperatives working on its greater concession (20).
Final finally, be clear that personally I’m going to watch and wait for four main reasons:
1) I have enough in SOLG for my personal taste and don’t need any more Ecuador for the
time being.
2) While the Election is going Noboa’s way, the potential for social disturbances still
remains high and there’s five weeks of campaigning to go.
3) I don’t have much spare money left anyway.
4) I’m chicken.
That’s just me. However, I’m also cognizant that risk/reward for Ecuador is now swinging the
way of long speculators, at least in the near-term, so the scenario would be to buy now, hold
through the election and sell when other people start buying, mid-October through November.
Any Noboa bets you decide to place would best be cashed in early, not left open for the long or
even medium term, in my opinion.
Market Watching
Still no close on the Provenance Gold (PAU.cse) financing
In IKN746 last weekend we updated on this interesting little gold exploreco, noted its financial
position and that it had a financing open to raise $800k that was due to have closed, but no
news. Near the end of the update this summed up our attitude to PAU as a possible speculative
trade:
If the placement closes and the 9c prices we’ve seen in the last couple of weeks
continue, this stock is likely to make the Watch List above (or perhaps the TinyCaps
list for 2024) as it would merit closer attention. However, any long delay to close and
any shortfall in financing will play against the company and its story, so we’ll see how
things go before doing anything else.
One week later and…no news. The placement due
closed July 31st is still open and we can only presume
they’re having trouble in filling the book. Therefore our
opinion remains the same, first let’s see PAU raise some
working capital. The 12 month chart shows that its 8.5c
close this weekend is technically threatening that
seemingly established 9c floor. You can’t get too fussy
about TA in thinly traded stocks of course, but it does
suggest the lack of financing closure news is an issue
for more than this desk. Continuing the observation
and, if the placement closes better-late-than-never, PAU
is still an obvious addition to our formal Watch List.
Conclusion
IKN747 is done, we end with some bullet points:
 On re reading the edition before sending, Fortuna Silver (FSM) stands out as the most
23

interesting single stock opportunity as featured this weekend. The other interesting
trade potential is anything Ecuador, as Noboa is certainly favourite to win next month
and that will make for a near-term price pop as the world of business applauds the
wisdom of Ecuador’s choice. It won’t take long for the country to go Basket Case
afterwards, but that’s for another day.
 I probably own you an article on the feasibility study NR published by Rio2 Ltd last
week and I may get round to it next edition, but Pan Global (PGZ.v) was a far more
interesting case study this weekend even though I own plenty RIO.v and zero PGZ.v.
Fact is, the FS matters the moment that the Comite de Ministros greenlights the project
and upholds the company’s appeal. The market’s non-reaction to the FS news says the
same.
 Another story I’ve kind-of-not-reallty missed on covering this week is that of Mene Inc
(MENE.v), which has a new CEO as Roy Sebag moves himself to executive chair. I’m
going to give this company due consideration when it publishes its 3q23 numbers,
because what we really want to know are the details of its proposed revamp, rather
than who is going to do the revamping.
 Pan Global (PGZ.v) is being treated very unfairly by a rapacious and predatory capital
market that can smell blood and wants as many cheapo shares (and warrants) as it can
grab. Bad news for holders, but those of us on the outside looking in should pay close
attention.
 Avoid Colombia. Seriously.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stock is Minera Alamos (MAI.v). Flash
updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best wishes, Mark
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://edition.cnn.com/2023/09/05/business/goldman-sachs-recession-odds/index.html
(2) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-17/forecast-for-us-recession-within-year-hits-100-in-blow-to-
biden#xj4y7vzkg
(3) https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2023/sep/what-probability-recession-message-yield-spreads
(4) https://uploads-ssl.webflow.com/63e904921eb4adc55bebeffb/64de9c23fe537c8d5bec8c0c_2023-08-
16_Pan%20Global%20Resources_Corporate%20Presentation_FINAL.pdf
(5) https://uploads-
ssl.webflow.com/63e904921eb4adc55bebeffb/64ee4bd38aefaccc11cbe7c0_MASTER_Escacena%20Project_Published
%20Drill%20hole%20intersections_updated%2008252023.pdf
(6) https://www.panglobalresources.com/news/pan-global-reports-drill-results-for-canada-honda-and-zarcita-targets-at-
the-escacena-project-spain
(7) https://us06web.zoom.us/meeting/register/tZ0pcumgqTksH9Qjcmz0fzUGukwCwrpLAVng#/
(8) https://fortunasilver.com/investors/news/fortuna-intersects-1-299-g-t-ag-eq-over-a-true-width-of-9.9-meters-at-the-
san-jose-mine-mexico/
(9) https://fortunasilver.com/investors/news/fortuna-announces-successful-completion-of-process-plant-performance-
test-at-the-seguela-gold-mine-cote-d-ivoire/
(10) https://aldebaranresources.com/news-releases/2023/aldebaran-upsizes-previously-announced-financing-to-20.1-m/
24

(11) https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/china-august-copper-imports-at-473330.4-tonnes
(12) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2023-09-08/codelco-plows-ahead-with-40-billion-copper-plan
(13) https://www.e29copper.com/news/element-29-announces-private-placement-of-up-to-2-million
(14) https://www.e29copper.com/news/element-29-terminates-previous-offering-and-announces-new-private-
placement-financing-of-up-to-2-million
(15) https://www.e29copper.com/news/element-29-announces-increase-of-private-placement-to-29-million
(16) https://www.newmont.com/investors/news-release/news-details/2023/Newmont-Announces-Date-of-Special-
Meeting-of-Stockholders-and-Filing-of-Definitive-Proxy-Statement-for-Acquisition-of-Newcrest/default.aspx
(17) https://twitter.com/larryyumibandam/status/1700193423360196625
(18) https://www.eluniverso.com/noticias/politica/leonidas-iza-conaie-no-apoyara-a-luisa-gonzalez-ni-a-daniel-noboa-en-
el-balotaje-segunda-vuelta-nota/?
(19) https://twitter.com/CONAIE_Ecuador/status/1700270687624315165
(20) https://luminexresources.com/news/luminex-reaches-agreement-with-a-second-association-of-artisanal-miners-
around-condor-north/
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2022
Closed in 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
Goldshore Res GSHR.v Nov'22 C$0.18 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 88.9% Quick profit taken
Palamina Corp PA.v Dec'22 C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.08 -72.9% Clear-out of underperformer
Pure Gold PGM.h Dec'22 C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.015 -89.3% tiny trade on vh risk, went Ch11
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Set-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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