IKN #746Premium

The IKN Weekly
Week 746, September 3rd 2023
Contents
This Week: In Today’s Edition, Labor Day the finance window and the conference season.
Fundamental Analysis: Minera Alamos (MAI.v) 2q23 financials.
Stocks to Follow: Minera Alamos (MAI.v), Contango ORE (CTGO), SolGold (SOLG.to), Rio2
Ltd (RIO.v): Fortuna Silver (FSM), AbraSilver (ABRA.v), Faraday Copper (FDY.to).
Copper Basket: Overview, Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.to), Atacama Copper (ACOP.v).
Producer Basket: Overview, Wesdome (EDO.to) (WDOFF) and Hecla (HL), B2Gold (BTG).
TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Palamina Corp (PA.v), Latin Metals (LMS.v), District Metals
(DMX.v).
Regional Politics: Chile: Aurora Australis, Ecuador: A poll and potentially important meeting
this Wednesday, Argentina: Milei favourite in ballotage intentions.
Market Watching: Provenance Gold (PAU.cse) update.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
In Today’s Edition
 Today’s main fundies section covers the 2q23 financials and guidance from our Top
Pick stock, Minera Alamos (MAI.v).
 The copper space saw welcome improvement last week and on the right type of news,
as ChinaFears subside. Setting up nicely for the seasonal demand pick up for the metal.
 Today’s Regional Politics once again shines the spotlight on a Chile that’s seeing a clear
improvement in its government’s attitude toward the mining industry. We also return to
the subject of Argentina’s Presidential candidate and new favourite for the election win,
Javier Milei, as the momentum and interest surrounding this eccentric character grows.
While not directly related to mining, it’s been the single subject that got the most
feedback from last week’s edition so more words are due (along with the latest poll that
puts him in front in both Round One and the Run-Off scenarios).
 Also in Regional Politics, we’re keeping a close eye on the Presidential election run-off
race because of the potential trade set-up in the event of a Daniel Noboa win. There’s
no calling the race yet, but the polls are pointing in the right direction.
Labor Day, the finance window and the conference season
No big intro this week. You will have notived that today’s edition has arrived one day late and
for two reasons. The first is practical, as today Monday September 4th is Labo(u)r Day in North
America, markets have been closed and I decided to take the day of no market price
movements and use it to my advantage. The second is personal as the good lady has been
going through a nasty bout of morning sickness and has needed some extra care and attention.
As you can imagine, the first reason is tightly connected to the second.
But that’s just me, more important is that as from tomorrow Tuesday we should see an uptick
in newsflow from companies in our sector, assuming 2023 is a normal year for the cycle
1

(whatever “normal” means in these crazy times). It’s also the unofficial start of the autumn
financing window, that wonderful time of year when mining companies with no income run by
people wearing khaki BDU pants and carrying rock hammers (we know them as explorecos)
look to add money by selling papers to people wearing expensive suits and carefully manicured
nails (who then try to sell them to us).
And with kids back to school and bank balances to top up, C-suites will also be on duty at the
flurry of trade shows and conferences that comes during the September/October financing
window. The centrepiece of the period are the two Colorado conferences, with this year’s
Beaver Creek September 12th to 15th and the Denver Gold Show right afterward, September
17th to 20th. While there is overlap, the former tends towards a focus on juniors and explorecos
while the latter is the bigger show and attracts the Tier 1 and 2 precious metals companies.
Expect interviews with Bristow talking up Reko Diq, Randy Smallwood talking up the price of
silver and Tom Palmer sending everyone to sleep.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Minera Alamos (MAI.v) 2q23 financials
On time and as expected, our Top Pick stock Minera Alamos (MAI.v) filed its 2q23 financials and
MD&A on Tuesday evening, with the accompanying NR (1) out pre-open Wednesday morning.
What we learned was this:
 At Santana, 2q23 production and sales were low.
 At Santana, MAI is gearing up for a return to the development rates we expected in
2022, with plenty of optimism for 3q23 and beyond in the company literature.
 At Cerro de Oro, the permitting process remains on track.
 Financially, MAI remains in good shape.
In other words, there was nothing to surprise close watchers of this company in this set of
financials, whereas the headlines and raw numbers as published wouldn’t have impressed the
casual observer. In many ways, the “first impressions vs reality” of the 2q23 filings played out
in the market on Wednesday morning, as sellers dominated the morning and sold the stock
down to its lowest level since the Covid quarter of 2020,
then some chunky purchases quickly lifted the stock
back above the 30c line. As a non-buyer I’d have
preferred MAI to have held the 31c and 32c level of
Thursday and early Friday, but overall the trading last
week was understandable in the near-term (even
though this company is still woefully undervalued).
Long story short, we expected a final soft quarter
before Santana gets back into gear and starts producing
at a more reasonable level now that the rains have
returned and the worker headcount is up to scratch, we
got exactly that. Therefore we can look forward to
better times ahead at MAI and, at current prices, I’m more than happy to maintain the Top Pick
recommendation on Minera Alamos (MAI.v).
But today we’re going to be pessimistic.
I’m the first to bang on the drum about the potential upside for both company and share price
and I’ve waxed lyrical on all these subjects on plenty of occasions.
 Santana is ready to expand, with pad permits between us and a doubling of production
levels plus exploration drilling happening at highly prospective targets on site
 Cerro de Oro is now on the permit track, a simple and cheap build-out and will
transform the company’s production levels and cash generation
2

 There’s the organic growth pipeline with La Fortuna further down the line
 There’s even a value add opportunity with the Los Verdes Copper/Moly deposit, located
right next door to Santana, that could quickly become a cheap cash generator.
However, one look at the share price is enough to tell you that things haven’t gone to plan at
MAI. Between rainfall issues and the way Mexico has apparently decided to slow the permitting
track for mining operations to a crawl, things haven’t gone the way we all expected MAI to go
in the last year or two. So today we’re going to take the opportunity of these 2q23 results,
assume they are going to mark a low point in its interrupted development story and consider
how low we can reasonably value this company on present evidence. We do so in three stages:
 A review of 2q23 production, operational results and effects on balance sheet
 Some estimates on the next couple of quarters at Santana
 We then strip out the optimism and consider what Minera Alamos would be worth if we
only consider Santana in its present state.
This time we’re going to ignore the production upside at Santana once those pad permits
arrive, we’re going to assume Cerro de Oro stays latent for another year, we’re going to forget
all about La Fortuna and Los Verdes. Today we see what MAI is worth as stands today, after
that and in the quarters to come, everything else that happens will be a bonus.
The 2q3 operations and financials: We’ll start by adjusting attitudes toward Santana. The last
time we offered forecasts for production at the mine, we used this chart:
THAT WAS THEN
MAI: Santana sales and forecast, per qtr
3
104
96.7512
85.8213 6324
0582 5762
0053
0005 0005
0008
11000
10000
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 tse32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4 tse42q1
Oz Au
source: MAI data, IKN ests
I’ll offer a little auto-mitigation and say that the chart is from several months ago, but when
you compare the above 3,500oz gold for 2q23 with reality below, along with the estimates for
3q23 and beyond, you’ll see how bad our guesses were
NOW THE SAME CHART, UPDATED
MAI: Santana sales and forecast, per qtr
104
96.7512
85.8213 6324
0582 5762
1701
0003
0004
0005
11000
10000
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4 tse42q1
Oz Au
source: MAI data, IKN ests
Big differences and chopped columns. In 2q23 sales were a paltry 1,071oz gold, even worse
than the two previous thin quarters and a mile away from the numbers posted in 2022 when
the ramp-up was still on track. We also have new estimates for the next three quarters, with
our best guess for the current quarter down to 3,000oz gold sold and lower targets in the
forward months. We’re aiming lower because of what we received in Q2, also in Q3 we’re being

guided at Santana for a low rates in July and August, then a return to a mining rate of 100,000
tonnes per month in September. That is a better number than anything in the last few weeks,,
but it’s still a long way from what the mine is supposed to return. Indeed, 100kt/month should
be considered a stepping stone toward the production rates originally envisaged for the mine
and on that subject, it’s worth recalling at in 1q22 Santana was mining at 200,000 tonnes per
month and was expected to reach 300kt/month, all that before the rainfall issues came and
scuppered the plans.
As for the forward quarters, even 1q24 at 5,000 oz is still well under the potential of Santana
operations and this without the envisaged pad permits that will allow for significant expansion
of tonnages moved. A run rate of 5,000oz gold production/sales per quarter is readily achieved
at 150,000 tonnes per month (or 5,000tpd, if you prefer), as long as we assume an average
grade of 0.5 g/t gold and 80% recoveries over time. Those criteria are reasonable and stand up
to scrutiny, as while the extended fallow period of late 2022/early 2023 has been a right royal
pain in the backside, it has given the company time to confirm long-term recovery rates,
average grades from the main pit at Nicho/Nicho Norte and the quick leach kinetics that give
75% recoveries within 30 to 45 days, then allow
residual production over a longer period.
Overall, the above chart now frames what we
consider to be a reasonable lowball case for
Santana, that’s what we want for our baseline
valuation today (see below). But before that we
consider the money from Q2 and forecasts for the
next two quarters (all in Canadian Dollars, please
recall), starting with revenues (right). Our
guesstimates of 3q23 sales of 3,000oz Au and 4q23
at 4,000 Au target C$7.5m and C$10m respectively
To those top line revenues we now add COGS (which includes royalties) and for 2q23, that
returns an unofficial gross mining income of negative $0.367m.
MAI.v: Revs, COGS and Gross margin
4
61.5
552.2
509.2
962.7
952.3 10.4
490.9
734.4 756.4
602.0
695.3
93.3-
487.6
298.3 298.2
80.3
744.3
763.0-
5.7
2.4
3.3
01
2.5 8.4
MAI.v: Revenues
11 10
10 9.094
9
8 7.269 6.784 7.5
7
6 5.16
5
4 3.08
3
2 1 0.206
0
C$m Revenues
COGS
12 "gross profit"
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
source: MAI filings, IKN ests
-4
1q22 2q22 3q22 4q22 1q23 2q23 3q23est 4q23est
That’s not a great quarter, let’s face it. However, it’s all about the low gold sales and as
production is bound to pick up in the next quarters and fixed costs are a large proportion of
what happens at Santana, it won’t take much to move the mine back into profit. Indeed, our
low end 3,000 oz for 3q23 is enough to see the mine run at a C$3.3m profit this quarter.
On a more official level, once we include the other operating and corporate expenses to the
pile, we get a 2q23 mine operating income of negative C$2.546m. That’s the hole we got from
selling low numbers of gold, but again we expect Santana and Minera Alamos to return to
modest levels of profitability in the next two quarters as tonnages start ramping back up and
gold sales increase. We stress, we’re still under the placeholder 5,000 oz gold we expected
during the ramp-up period previously, not to mention the 8,000oz/qtr that Santana could run at
(and quite easily) if it fulfills its original expectations. There’s no reason it can’t achieve those
numbers, but for the time being we’re going to throttle back and lower expectations to show a
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
C$m
source: company filings, IKN ests

baseline valuation for this company.
MAI.v: financial results
5
61.5
136.3
925.1
962.7
196.4
875.2
490.9
411.7
89.1
602.0
390.5
788.4-
487.6
458.5
39.0
80.3
726.5
645.2-
5.7
6
5.1
01
7
3
Revenues C$m
total exp
12 mine op inc
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6 source: company filings
1q22 2q22 3q22 4q22 1q23 2q23 3q23est 4q23est
Summing up, MAI flagged 2q23 as a weak quarter and we got a weak quarter. And now, with
the return of normal seasonal rainfall and a Santana that’s ramping back up we should get a
better run rate and production increases in 3q23 and 4q23, then on to 2024. But first things
first and in order to underscore our “baseline valuation” proposal today, we first need to see
how badly the slow start to 2023 has affected the balance sheet:
MAI.v: Assets
60
55
50 45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
The answer is “hardly at all”. One of the best things about this company has always been its
attitude toward preservation of its balance sheet strength and the prudent way it has
approached this production bootstrapping process. That one-off anomalous liability caused by
the way MAI had to book its 4q22 sales on both sides of its balance sheet, causing a deferred
liability, has now dropped from $5,5m to $1.7m and will soon disappear. As for the assets, we’ll
probably see some fluctuation here and I’ve deliberately ignored the potential effects of the
approx U$25m financing package for Cerro de Oro that’s due announced by the end of this
month (we don’t know when it will close exactly, or at what rate MAI will draw down on the
facility), but overall things are calm and what matters are the liquid asset charts, here below:
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
$m MAI.v: Liabilities per qtr
inventories 11
fixed 10
other current cash 9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
source: company filings
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
LT liabs
current liabs
MAI.v: Cash treasury per qtr
267.1
673.7
381.11 792.32 119.91 188.61 642.61 963.21
340.7 701.6 230.9
527.41 451.31
2.01 472.8 2.01 21
26
24
22
20
18
16
14 12 10 8
6 4
2
0
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
source: company filings
srallod
fo snoillim
MAI.v: Working Capital per qtr
42.1 865.6
449.11 653.42 255.22 186.02 887.91 496.41 24.41 654.51 805.71 562.22 482.81 198.91 816.02 7.02 9.22
26
24
22
20
18
16
14 12 10 8
6 4
2
0
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
source company filings
srallod
fo snoillim

Again, we ignore the potential effects of the cash dump from the Cerro de Oro facility and keep
our eyes on Santana. When we do, we see that the IVA rebate of $2.57m received post quarter
end will top up cash nicely replace nearly all the cash we expect MAI will burn on its ramp-up
procedures in 3q23…that’s good. From then on, there’s every reason to expect Santana to
become a modest little cash cow and add to treasury on a quarterly basis, here we just go with
4q23 but 2024 should see the same effects.
It’s this rock solid balance sheet that has allowed your author to remain patient all through this
annoyingly long pause in projected growth. Put simply, this is the combo that makes MAI stand
out from the crowd of junior trade alternatives:
 Financially solid and easily capable of surviving before thriving
 The upside potential as the company grows its production via expansion and new
mines, all organically and with minimal share dilution expected
The former allows patience for the latter to happen. However and as noted all through this
update note, today is not about throwing sequins in eyes or dazzling this readership with blue
sky projections of the marvels to come once Cerro de Oro is operating, Santana is running at
10koz/qtr and La Fortuna starts to become a reality instead of a distant idea on the horizon. We
need to consider just why MAI trades where it does today, at thirty cents Canadian and for
that, we run the ruler over its 2023 situation.
Valuing MAI on today’s Santana only
There’s no way around it, the market may be wrong but it thinks today’s MAI is only worth 30c
per share and as there has to be some logic in that bearish case, let’s consider this company on
what it is doing today, rather than project to 2025 and beyond.
First let’s consider mine throughput and the way that dropped to negligible levels during the
extended drought period. Thankfully, those days are gone and we know that Santana has just
come off a month that mined around 80,000mt of material and is expected to move that to
100kmt this month. We know that because the
company included a visual in its 2q23 cover NR
(chart right). We also know that even without the
next pad permits, it’s capable of running at
200,000kmt/month and once the pad expands, the
originally targeted 300kmt (i.e. 10,000tpd) is
attainable. Therefore in our baseline model today,
we’re not going as low as 100kmt, but there’s not
point in assuming a best case either. Therefore, and
for our lowballing purposes today, we’re going to
assume MAI under-performs and only mines an
average of 5,000tpd (150kmt/month) for the next 12
months on average.
Next comes grade and recoveries: We know more about this now, so I’m comfortable about
using an average 0.5 g/t gold for overall averages and on that, we apply an 80% recovery.
We’ll get 75% easily and with fast kinetics, but these days there’s good reason to suppose a
little more is squeezed from residual production of placed tonnes over the medium or long
term.
The other vital input is costs: On this we also know more than we did and in previous financial
models, I deliberately went highball on costs to cover eventualities. While 2q23 was not
representative of what Santana can do on a per ounce basis, we know enough from 2022
quarters to assume my previous guesstimate of over U$1,000/oz cash cost was too high, but
I’m still loathe to assume the levels of U$805/oz that MAI envisaged back in the day. On
balance I’ve gone for a U$937/oz mine cash cost (that does not include depreciation, royalties
or corporate costs) as that assumes a total mining and processing cost of U$12/mt on 0.5g/t
average mineral. If you ask Darren Koningen or Doug Ramshaw I expect they’ll tell you that
6

U$937/oz is still too high compared to their own expectations, but that’s okay.
Finally, one bit of good news is that these days, it’s fair to assume better prices for gold. As a
result, our baseline price deck is now assumed U$1,900/oz (was U$1,800/oz) and the other
prices in the deck are up as well. So with the numbers crunched…
MAI at Santana: Model Revenues & Op Income (U$m)
Price Deck U$1.8k/oz Au U$1.9k/oz Au U$2.0k/oz Au U$2.2k/oz Au
Prod. gold (Oz) 22,508 22,508 22,508 22,508
U$/oz $1,800 $1,900 $2,000 $2,200
gold revenues 40.5 42.8 45.0 49.5
Total COGS 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0
TC/RC+NSR 7.8 8.2 8.7 9.5
Gross Profit 10.7 12.5 14.4 18.0
Sources: MAI data, IKN calcs and estimates
…our model for one calendar year forward expects quarterly production to average around
5,500 oz gold, or 22,508 per year. Total COGS (which includes a modest U$1m for depreciation,
as guided by recent results) of U$22m and deductions for TC/RC and the royalties make gross
profit U$12.5m at U$1,900/oz gold. Good money.
Here you have the same numbers cut and sliced a different way and we go a little further,
offering a operating income and a net income for Santana only. The net number isn’t so
important, what matters more is the U$11m that comes in operating profits at U$1,900/oz gold
as it again shows how the tight and cheap financial structure works in MAI’s favour and is set to
convert most of the free cash flow into real treasury.
MAI.v at Santana: Model condensed income statement model (U$m)
item U$1.8k/oz Au U$1.9k/oz Au U$2.0k/oz Au U$2.2k/oz Au
Sales (U$m) 34.4 36.4 38.3 42.1
COGS 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.0
Depreciation 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
SGA+R&D 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5
NSR 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.1
Op income 9.2 11.0 12.9 16.5
Interest 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Workers Part. 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.3
Tax 2.4 2.8 3.3 4.2
Net income 6.1 7.3 8.5 10.9
Shares out 462 462 462 462
EPS 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02
Sust. Capex 4 4 4 4
FCF 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03
Sources: MAI data, IKN calcs & estimates
Finally, our price box and using the U$1,900/oz gold price assumption…
Sales and earnings Target price & valuation data for MAI.v based on
Year 1.7kAu 1.8kAu 1.9kAu 2.0kAu Santana Only and U$1,900/oz gold
Sales (U$m) 34 36 38 42 12-month target $0.35 based on 10x FCF
Sales growth 6% 5% 10% Upside to target 15%
EPS 0.013 0.016 0.018 0.024 Mkt cap (CAD$m) $139 Enterprise value $136
FCF 0.024 0.027 0.029 0.034 P/sales (1.7kAu) 3.82 EV/sales (1.7kAu) 3.73
P/E (1.7kAu) 22.7 EV/EBITDA (1.7kAu) 13.3
P/E (1.8kAu) 19.0 EV/EBITDA (1.8kAu) 11.3
P/E (1.9kAu) 16.3 EV/EBITDA (1.9kAu) 9.8
7

…it generates a price target of 35c Canadian, using current forex and a 10X multiple to free
cash flow. That multiple might have seemed a little high before but these days, Santana is
largely de-risked and we know 1) the mine will work as soon as the tonnages increase and 2)
we no longer have to wait a few quarters or a year to see that happen. I have no problem at all
in assigning 10X to Santana these days.
Therefore, our model, based on what we see and hear at Santana today, implies MAI is slightly
undervalued compared to its current share price. In other words, a buyer of MAI today gets full
value for his stake from its only operating mine, even if we assume it runs at half its nominal
capacity for the next year. In some ways I do understand the market’s pricing of MAI, it has cut
its projections and valuations to the bone and assumed a bad case after a year of setbacks and
disappointing news flow from the company and in this bearish market for juniors, we haven’t
seen much money to argue against the bear case. However, this bottom-tier, lowball, Santana-
only valuation leaves a long list of items on the table:
 Organic production growth at Santana, as 8,000oz per quarter may have been deferred
by circumstances, but it’s still a very logical target to aim for.
 Cerro de Oro priced at zero and to remind readers, our reasonable, lowball valuation for
CdO came to 31c/share the last time around. So even if I’m wrong due to time value of
money, there’s still a lot left to add once the build-out begins. We may have to wait for
those permits, but this is Mexico and not Venezuela, they’ll appear.
 La Fortuna: Put it this way, MAI could flip this out into a newco tomorrow and it would
be a $50m market capper at IPO. At the moment the company is getting zero credit for
owning this valuable asset.
 We could also include tangibles such as Los Verdes, and intangibles such as one of the
best teams in juniors and a C-suite that could not be more aligned with its retail
shareholder base.
The bottom line: On Wednesday morning the market had two hours of looking in the rear
view mirror and valuing MAI on its weak 2q23 financials, before the bargain hunters stepped up
and took anything under the 30c line. This is understandable as, even if MAI continues
indefinitely with just one operation at Santana and even if that mine doesn’t expand to its full
potential, the current share price is fully justified (and then some). But once you factor in the
list of growth upside that’s already largely baked into this story, you’re literally getting
something for nothing as holders of Minera Alamos today. It’s been a frustrating year for the
stock and personally, speaking, it’s no fun at all to watch your Top Pick stock tread water at this
low share price, but every time I try to get critical with the position and attempt to talk my way
of owning so much of it, the upside potential is always there, compelling in size and now in
touching distance on a timeline that has stretched, but has never snapped.
Stocks to Follow
When more stocks go up than go down, it’s a good week. Of the 20 stocks on our list, 12 made
gains on the week (MAI.v, SOLG.to, EQX, FSM, FDY.to, CTGO, RIO.v, WEX.v, ALDE.v, MARI.to,
LBC.v, MENE.v) and five others remained unchanged (ARG.to, ABRA.v, MIRL.cse, SURG.v,
RUG.v), which means just three stocks (QCCU.v, NCAU.v, OCI.v) were losers on the week. Two
stocks made double figure percentage moves to the upside, namely Libero (LBC.v up
12.5%...which was half a cent on low volume and unimportant) and Faraday (FDY.to up
10.5%...which was a rebound from the overselling of the week before last and also
unimportant). To the downside, Orecap (OCI.v down 25.0%) was the only big loser as long as
we don’t include the 15% lost in Latin Metals (LMS.v), now dropped from the list.
The general takeaway from the last week of summer trading rhythm? Modest improvement
across the board. And I’ll take that happily enough, thanks.
With Latin Metals (LMS.v) dropped from the Watch List, we’re back to 20 stocks in our table,
8

our self-imposed maximum number that we…cough…never…cough…hardly ever exceed. Seven
stocks are in the green, the rest are still red so roll on the post-Labor Day influx of cash into our
sector to sort that ratio out.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.30 42.9% $0.75 first tgt, #1 idea
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Amerigo Res ARG.to STR BUY C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.46 7.4% Main Cu trade, top fundies
SolGold SOLG.to STR BUY C$0.265 19-Feb-23 C$0.25 -5.7% Cu in Ecuador, M&A tgt
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v BUY C$0.265 25-Apr-21 C$0.15 -43.4% delayed MRE now due end Q3
Equinox Gold EQX BUY U$4.46 30-May-23 U$4.91 10.1% Au leverage trade, trading well
Fortuna Silver FSM BUY U$2.92 13-Aug-23 U$2.99 2.4% New trade, want quick flip
Faraday Copper FDY.to BUY C$0.79 26-Mar-23 C$0.74 -6.3% USA based Cu exploreco
Contango Ore CTGO BUY U$18.70 30-Jul-23 U$18.58 -0.6% new purchase IKN741
AbraSilver Res. ABRA.v SPEC BUY C$0.36 4-Dec-22 C$0.325 -9.7% added for last time Mar'23
Newcore Gold NCAU.v SPEC BUY C$0.205 23-Oct-22 C$0.13 -34.1% Financing closed, bottom in
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v BUY C$0.83 22-Apr-18 C$0.245 -70.5% Cheap on permit probs, appeal
SPECULATIVE TRADES
Orecap inv OCI.v SPEC BUY C$0.04 20-Nov-22 C$0.03 -25.0% corp revamp, new strategy
Western Explor. WEX.v SPEC BUY C$1.87 9-Apr-23 C$0.96 -48.7% Au spec in USA, started badly
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v SPEC BUY C$0.72 16-May-21 C$0.89 23.6% now in drill assay season
Minera IRL MIRL.cse avoid C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.02 -89.7% run into ground byCEO, AVOID
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
Marimaca Copper MARI.to WATCH C$3.65 26-May-23 C$4.05 11.0% Likely buy, want cheap entry
Surge Copper SURG.v WATCH C$0.11 18-Jun-23 C$0.10 -9.1% tinycap Cu in BC Canada
Libero Copper LBC.v WATCH C$0.065 2-Jul-23 C$0.045 -30.8% Watching for Arg drill permit
Rugby Resources RUG.v WATCH C$0.06 26-Mar-23 C$0.045 -25.0% tinycap Cu in Colombia
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.63 6-Dec-20 C$0.43 -31.7% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2023 date closed close price
Altiplano Metals APN.v jan'23 C$0.31 17-Sep-21 C$0.17 -45.2% delayed and will dilute soon
Western Copper WRN.to mar'23 C$2.02 13-Nov-22 C$2.32 14.9% sold on reduced M&A prob.
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v may'23 C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$1.75 -43.0% Closing on legal action news
Amerigo Res ARG.to may'23 C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.48 8.8% sold 20% to raise cash
2015 to 2022 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on a few of our covered companies:
Minera Alamos (MAI.v): Plenty on our Top Pick in today’s main Fundies section above, we
keep it to a quick commentary here on MAI’s volatile trading on Wednesday, with the numbers
published. Early trades dragged the stock as low as 26.5c and I’m glad I was doing other things
that morning, rather than watching the tape, because by the time I was in front of a screen the
stock was back to 29.5c and closed at a decent 31.5c on the day as buyers put the soft Q2
behind them and considered the programmed ramp into the promised improved production in
the quarters to come. The Friday close of 30c was a bit of a downer, though.
Contango ORE (CTGO): Another minor milestone along the way at Manh Choh, as CTGO
(and Kinross) reported last week (2) the start of mining operations at Manh Choh as part of the
development into production, scheduled for mid-2024. Here’s a segment from the comments of
CEO/Pres Rick Van Nieuwenhuyse:
“The opening at the Manh Choh mine was officially celebrated with a ground-breaking
ceremony on August 29th. In attendance were the Governor of Alaska, Michael
9

Dunlevy, Tetlin Tribal Chief, Michael Sam, and Tribal Council members, as well as
representatives from both Kinross and Contango. At this point, mining operations
primarily consist of pre-stripping activities, with any ore encountered to be stockpiled
for later transport by road haul trucks to the Fort Knox mill for processing.”
All good. Ground breaking was going to happen, the
important point is that it’s happening on time and
budget. As for trading, the news didn’t set the stock
alight, but the consolidation above the U$18 line is
constructive and one thing we have less complaints
about these days is the volume. Since the closing of the
$30.4m placement in late July, trading in CTGO rarely
dips under 20,000 shares per day and is normally in the
40k to 50k range. Combine that with the price of this
equity and CTGO sees U$700k in trading run through
the stock daily and there aren’t many junior developers
doing that sort of volume on a regular basis.
SolGold (SOLG.to): I’m not sure whether to tell tales on this, as the background to the
rumour isn’t very clear and it may just be an attempted pump by somebody or other on an
Australian bullboard, but Wednesday morning saw
rumours starting to run that SOLG had some sort
of heads-up agreement in place with a Chinese
mining company. The stock reacted accordingly in
London trading, but there wasn’t much follow-
through on Thursday or Friday and overall, it’s
probably a market rumbling to be taken with a
large pinch of salt.
The fact that both the timing (election scenario
now becoming clear) and potential buyer
nationality (we can safely assume China, whatever
or whenever it happens) are logical and fit the
narrative only underscores how the best market
rumours are ones the feed bias confirmation.
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v): A slightly more solid rumour for you. Again this is unofficial, but the recent
convening of the Comite de Ministros came as a slight surprise to political watchers in Chile and
suggests the government is trying to clear the backlog of appeals cases. The way it also ruled
in favour of the CAP Iron Ore expansion project (see Regional Politics, below) also augurs well
for the process Rio2 is about to go through for the Fenix project. We’ve waited and waited for
news on the appeals process, but word now is that there’s movement inside SEA and the Fenix
appeal going to happen by the end of this month. When asking the company about this rumour,
they neither confirmed nor denied but did say that by law, the government will have to give the
company ten days’ notice of the meeting happening and if they get that notice, we’ll hear about
it (it’s public domain).
One way or the other, we seem to be close to resolution on this painfully delayed project, 14
months down the line. I reiterate my confidence of getting a positive result from the Comite de
Ministros appeal, while noting that there’s nothing certain in this world and particularly when
the committee is chaired by the Environment Minister Maisa Rojas. However and if Fenix wins
its appeal, my best guess for the stock is a move up to or around the 40c level first stop. There
will be other hoops to jump through after that, not least the question of raising the financing
for the project, but once Fenix is back under construction the real level of re-rating can begin.
Fortuna Silver (FSM): FSM was doing reasonably well until Friday afternoon came. I can’t
really blame day traders for closing out recent profits on the stock or not wanting to hold
through a weekend, but FSM continues to be a nervy trade from some and that showed in the
10

last hour. We expect that to change.
We know the Ganozas are big fans of the conference circuits and they’re bound to be in
Colorado, telling the story and talking up the new mine Seguela mine and its influence on the
production mix. At some point, they’re going to drop “Silver” from the corporate title.
AbraSilver Resource Corp (ABRA.v): We got a NR with the final
batch of drill numbers from its recently concluded drill program that
targeted the JAC zone above all (3) they included hole 070 that
returned 64m of 148 g/t silver hole that made for a good title line.
The NR contains the long list of holes now in the recently developed
JAC zone and it had me reflecting on how quickly and aggressively
ABRA has acted to move this resource forward. This visual (right) is a
screenshot from one of the NRs of November 2022, back when the
company was still trying to decide whether to call the new target JAC
or “South West Zone”. Note the number of holes and now compare it
to the section of one of the maps offered last week (below):
That’s a real exploreco doing real work on a real prospect, no messing around. Also and FWIW,
the hole DDH-23-070 you see marked above is the 64m of 168 g/t silver from the title line,
smack in the sweet spot. With the JAC zone now reported, ABRA then went on to list its
upcoming milestones and catalysts expected from now to the end of the year:
1. Announcing assay results from the remaining six holes on regional exploration targets
(JAC North, Alpaca and Fantasma (September 2023)
2. Updated Mineral Resource estimate for the Diablillos project (October 2023)
3. Conduct a CSAMT geophysical survey at Diablillos and prioritize exploration targets for
the upcoming Phase IV drill campaign (Q4 2023).
4. Pre-Feasibility Study completed for Diablillos project (December 2023)
11

Of those, numbers 2) and 4) could provide renewed
interest in this story and surprise the market, as there
will be serious tonnage and silver grade to add to the
resource estimate. As for the Diablillos Pre-Feas, that’s
unlikely to include much of the JAC zone but we will
get a better handle on project economics for the main
zone, including the Oculto high grade at depth.
In trading, ABRA finished UNCH on the week and that
could have been much better, all that was needed was
a little extra momentum in silver. It’s good to see this
in the 30s again but it’s still very cheap compared to
its potential and deposit size. The only silver exploreco
I need own at the moment.
Faraday Copper (FDY.to): I was moaning about the
soft trading last weekend, so seeing it rebound on
technical buying and adding over 10% was a good
thing. Still very cheap. FWIW the company published
another informative video to its YouTube channel last
week, explaining the role of breccia mineralization in
the overall Copper Creek deposit and why they target
those zones to look for higher grading material. Good
background information.
The Copper Basket
After thirty-five weeks of 2023, The Copper Basket shows a loss of 6.08% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Solaris Res SLS.to 6.44 146.599 875.20 5.97 -7.3%
2 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.22 92.882 376.17 4.05 25.8%
3 Western Copper WRN.to 2.41 151.597 301.68 1.99 -17.4%
4 Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to 1.92 105.96 168.48 1.59 -17.2%
5 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.78 172.551 153.57 0.89 14.1%
6 Oroco Res OCO.v 0.91 216.13 149.13 0.69 -24.2%
7 Hot Chili HCH.v 0.78 119.455 145.74 1.22 56.4%
8 Faraday Copper FDY.to 0.54 175.2 129.65 0.74 37.0%
9 Regulus Res. REG.v 1.10 124.509 110.81 0.89 -19.1%
10 Pan Global Res PGZ.v 0.46 212.145 54.10 0.255 -44.6%
11 Kodiak Copper KDK.v 1.12 56.2 39.90 0.71 -36.6%
12 QC Copper QCCU.v 0.165 162.815 24.42 0.15 -9.1%
13 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.16 86.966 15.22 0.175 9.4%
14 Libero Copper LBC.v 0.155 119.58 5.38 0.045 -71.0%
15 Atacama Copper ACOP.v 0.16 35.94 6.47 0.18 12.5%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg -6.08%
The Copper Basket average improved by nearly
The Copper Basket 2023, weekly evolution
12%
3% and that’s a decent move away from the 2023 10%
low hit the week before last. The improvement 8%
6%
was fuelled by nine winners (SLS.to, MARI.to, 4%
OCO.v, ALDE.v, HCH.v, REG.v, FDY.to, LBC.v, 2%
0%
ACOP.v), those included two big moves from -2%
-4%
12 -6%
-8%
-10%
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2yluj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6gua ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3pes
source: IKN calcs

Atacama Copper (ACOP.v up 28.6%) and Libero (LBC.v up 12.5%). Two of our basket remained
unchanged (KDK.v, ECU.v) and
that leaves four losers on the
week (WRN.to, ASCU.to, PGZ.v,
QCCI.v) and of those, the
biggest drop came once again
from the serially disappointing
Pan Global (PGZ.v down
12.1%).
The overall improvement in the
juniors was a direct response to
the improvement in copper
prices last week, with the red
metal even trying its luck above
the U$3.90/lb line for a
moment on Friday before
realizing that bids again dry up
quickly at that price.
And now for a quick reminder of how sentiment has improved rapidly since the low point of
mid-August. You may remember that just two weeks ago
in IKN744 dated August 20th we were concerned about
the continued drop in the price of copper, which had just
dipped under the U$3.70/lb line and was suggesting a
price breakdown on chart technicals (or as far as my very
limited technical anal ysis on charts ever goes, put me in
the K.I.S.S. camp). This visual (right) is one part of the
price chart we used that week and the way the price
channel seems to be coming to some sort of decision
point. Therefore, it’s good to see copper breaking higher
as you can propound all the fundies points in the world,
but if the market disagrees it’ll tell you.
The copper rally from $3.80 to $3.90 last week was on
the back of China macro data, plus a benign jobs report out of The USA (though that release
also marked the top). Regarding the market for 55% of the world’s copper, we’ve kept an eye
on the China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (4) this year and the 49.7 reading out
on Thursday (overnight Americas time) still officially indicates contraction, but it came in better
than the 49.3 forecast and as the chart (right) shows, it’s the third month running of
incremental results. Nothing gangbusters here, but it did provide further evidence that the
“China Dead!” headlines of mid-August were so much bunkum.
China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
54
53
52
51
50
49
48
47
46
13
luj gua pes tco von ced 1202naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 2202naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 3202naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua
source: China PMI
The other side of the copper equation saw Chile last week again file slightly improved
production figures for copper (5). After a small Year-over-Year beat in June, July copper

production of 434.1mmt Cu improved the score by 10.9mmt compared to the same month of
last year. This chart tracks the data and while Chile has bounced back from the rotten numbers
it filed at the start of 2023, the tendency line added takes no prisoners. Chile’s copper complex
is looking old, grade is dropping and it needs new mines to come online a.s.a.p., the good news
is that the Boric government has now received that message loud and clear and its lefty
ideology is now taking a back seat, See Regional Politics today for more in that ongoing series.
Chile: Monthly production, 2020 to July 2023
14
1.064 844 7.494 5.074 3.294 5.664 1.564 1.484 8.974 5.684 1.584 4.005 8.754 5.624 8.884 2.164 2.784 3.774 564 8.264 4.744 5.074 1.284 3.894 7.524
6.493
7.754 5.914 8.474 7.454 2.324 5.514 6.434 774 4.354 5.794 1.234
3.973
7.534 5.214
804
8.454 1.434
540
520
500
480
460
440
420 400 380
360
340
320
300
0202-naJ 02-raM 02-yaM 02-luJ 02-peS 02-voN 12-naJ 12-raM 12-yaM 12-luJ 12-peS 12-voN 22-naJ 22-raM 22-yaM 22-luJ 22-peS 22-voN 32-naJ 32-raM 32-yaM 32-luJ
source: INE, Cochilco
uC
tmm
So the Chilean press put a positive spin on the July numbers and that’s fair enough, but if we
zoom out and consider the annual production figures for Chile (chart below), we see 2023 is
looking bad, in fact even worse than 2022 despite Chile’s bullish forecast of production growth
at the start of the year. That’s mostly due to the big production misses we’re seeing at Codelco
with Chuqui mis-firing, El Teniente under-performing and a lack of pipeline projects to fall back
on Codelco’s mess has been documented closely by the trade press recently and last week its
new executive team took over the reins.
Chile: Total copper production per year, 1990 to 2022
393
591,1
986
621,1
677651,1 619
931,1
680,1431,1 423,1
561,1
598,1
122,1
161,2
132,1
482,2
304,1
488,2
805,1
680,3
615,1
741,3
295,1
160,3
025,1
243,3
365,1
976,3
337,1
395,3
827,1
586,3
676,1
479,3
385,1
168,3
664,1
296,3
207,1
037,3
986,1
825,3
537,1
787,3
746,1
451,4
226,1
980,4
276,1
040,4
237,1
548,3
807,1
077,3
437,1
451,4
876,1
991,4
885,1
511,4
816,1
500,4
816,1
588,3
644,1
009,3
003,1
6,500
6,000
5,500
5,000
4,500
4,000 3,500
3,000
2,500 2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
0991 1991 2991 3991 4991 5991 6991 7991 8991 9991 0002 1002 2002 3002 4002 5002 6002 7002 8002 9002 0102 1102 2102 3102 4102 5102 6102 7102 8102 9102 0202 1202 2202 3202
MMT Cu
Total Non-Codelco
Total Codelco
source: Cochilco
Ten years ago Chile provided around 30% of the world’s copper, this year its total market share
is set to drop to under 20%.
Thursday was also the end of another month and as such, it’s time to dial up our long-term
copper inventory tracking charts. This month saw a slight overall uptick in stocks (and I think
it’s time I dropped some of the earlier years from this chart and let you see the most recent
months more clearly), but also a change in where those stocks are housed
Key Cu inventory aggregate, 2012 to date
1000000
900000
800000
700000
600000
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
21.naJ ram yam luj pes von 31.naJ ram yam luj pes von 41.naj ram yam luj pes von 51.naj ram yam luj pes von 61.naj ram yam luj pes von 71.naj ram yam luj pes von 81
naj
ram yam luj pes von 91
naj
ram yam luj pes von 02
naj
ram yam luj pes von 12
naj
ram yam luj pes von 22
naj
ram yam luj pes von 32naj ram yam luj
Mt Cu
Comex
Shanghai
LME
source: Cochilco

As seen here, LME is back in fashion with almost 60% of world stocks, with SHFE’s stocks
falling off a cliff.
Copper inventories: percentage held per exchange
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
15
21.naJ ram yam luj pes von 31.naJ ram yam luj pes von 41.naj ram yam luj pes von 51.naj ram yam luj pes von 61.naj ram yam luj pes von 71.naj ram yam luj pes von 81
naj
ram yam luj pes von 91
naj
ram yam luj pes von 02
naj
ram yam luj pes von 12
naj
ram yam luj pes von 22
naj
ram yam luj pes von 32naj ram yam luj
LME Shanghai Comex source: Cochilco
The last summer month isn’t the most dynamic for macro data, we’ll take a closer look at the
end of September. Now for our regular weekly review of copper inventories, data as usual from
Chile’s Cochilco:
 Another add for the aggregate total for the three official world futures systems, up
10,439 metric tonnes (mt) to close at 180,262mt.
 The Shanghai SHFE added 6,006mt to close at 46,591mt, which is some relief from the
last two weeks but as the charts below show, it’s going to take more than that to
change the tendency for the next three months or so. Supply is very tight, make no
mistake.
 The LME also added last week, with the new 6,750mt aggregate bringing its total to
104,275mt and back over the 100k line. Once again we saw a decent chunk of the new
tonnage move to its New Orleans depot, the 2k going there almost matching the
Comex net withdrawal. On that subject…
 Comex stocks dropped substantially for the second week running, this time down
2,317mt to close at 29,396mt, again showing all the signs of arbitrage from here to
LME warehouses.
Our dedicated SHFE tracking charts show how 2023 continues to track 2022 fairly faithfully and
if that’s the case, we should see some continued drawdown through September and a low in
October.
SHFE copper inventory levels, 2018 to 2023
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
MT Cu 2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
source: Cochilco data

Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2014 to date
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
16
31'13ceD dr32 ht51 ht7 ht03 dn22 ht71 ht9 ts1von ht42 ht71 ht01 dn2tcO 7102ts1naJ ht62 ht81 ht01 dr3ced ht52 102ht72rpa ht91 ht11 9102
dr3bef
102ht82rpa ts12 ht31 0202ht5naj 202ht92ram ts12 ht31 0202ht6ced ht82 dr32 ht51 ht7 202ht03naj ht42 ht71 ht9 3202
naJ
ht62 ht81
Mt Cu
|
source: Cochilco
Now for notes on a couple of basket stocks.
Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.to): A final reminder that this coming Wednesday September 6th at
11:00 am ET ASCU is holding a Town Hall Forum, at which CEO Ogilvie and CFO Nikolakakis will
be on duty to give the latest from the company and Cactus/Parks/Salyer combined project, with
live Q&A after. Here’s the link to register for the event (6), see you there.
Atacama Copper (ACOP.v): Last week’s biggest
mover jumped on basically one trade, as somebody
decided they wanted in to the tune of 1.4m shares
and was willing to pay 18c apiece for the pleasure,
instead of the 14c seen in small trades in the previous
days. It looks spectacular on a week-over-week basis,
but even that block trade only amounted to around
C$26k, or U$20k if you prefer.
ACOP reported its quarter and with an average burn of
$100k/month and just over $250k in treasury, this
move may be connected with an upcoming capital
raising via placement. Here’s the balance sheet as
posted to SEDAR last week and while the company is still tightly held and run within normal
bounds, even the smallest exploreco tends to run out of money.
No need to chase this stock price move.
The Producer Basket
After 35 weeks of 2023, the Producer Basket shows a loss of 1.80% to level stakes:

company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 47.20 799 31.42 39.32 -16.7%
2 Barrick GOLD 17.18 1761.54 28.40 16.12 -6.2%
3 Agnico Eagle AEM 51.99 488.9 23.53 48.13 -7.4%
4 Wheaton PM WPM 39.08 451.963 19.52 43.19 10.5%
5 Kinross Gold KGC 4.09 1256.1 6.32 5.03 23.0%
6 Alamos Gold AGI 10.11 393.1 4.86 12.37 22.4%
7 B2Gold BTG 3.57 1074.567 3.33 3.10 -13.2%
8 Hecla Mining GFI 5.56 610.491 2.66 4.35 -21.8%
9 Eldorado Gold EGO 8.36 185.73 1.78 9.56 14.4%
10 Wesdome Gold WDOFF 5.53 147.526 0.92 6.25 13.0%
All prices and stock quotes in U$ Port. avg 1.80%
The GDX benchmark rose 2.4% and is back in the green for the year by 1.5%, which is good
for everyone. Even better for me, our Producer basket saw ten out of ten component stocks
rally and result in the first week in 2023 in which we’re beating the benchmark:
The 2023 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
comparative to GDX control
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
Hoorah, etc. Now for sure +0.3% after 35 weeks isn’t much, but it feels like a victory after
having been down from Week 1 and in the hole by almost 3% just six weeks ago. As for the
components, the laggard of the ten continues to be Hecla (HL) up just 0.9% as its Lucky Friday
mine fire and partial closure news (see IKN745 last weekend) continued to drag on the stock,
while the best performance came from Wesdome Gold (WDOFF up 9.8%) as that stock enjoys
the leverage on gold at current prices. And on the subjects…
Wesdome Gold (WDOFF) and Hecla Mining (HL): There was very little in the way of news
flow from the precious metals producers last week, perhaps they’re all holding fire on market
moving news for the Denver Gold Show later this month. So no big notes section today, instead
a quick update on the progress made by the two stocks we’ve featured recently as they
continued with their defined momentum. Here’s a five-day chart of e rallying Wesdome
(WDO.to) (WDOFF) and the faltering Hecla (HL) along with the benchmark GDX:
17
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2yluj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6gua ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3pes
The 2023 Producer Basket: Percentage difference
between GDX benchmark & basket (negative = IKN ahead)
4.0%
ikn
3.0%
gdx control
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
source: NYSE, IKN calcs ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2yluj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6gua ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3pes
source: IKN calcs, NYSE data

This isn’t about company fundamentals or anything of the sort, instead more of a commentary
on how both stocks rallied on the first two days of last week along with the improvement in
gold, but as soon as the metals peaked and adjusted, the weakened HL reversed sharply.
Meanwhile the rebounding WDO managed to shrug off the market top and consolidate its gains
all week, showing nice relative strength. The sentiment coming into last week wasn’t great for
HL and it couldn’t handle the reversal, whereas the trading in WDO seems to denote rising
confidence that its turnaround story is coming to pass and that production from the lower and
high grade levels of Kiena should begin as scheduled.
B2Gold (BTG): Location of BTG’s flagship Fekola operation, we first heard of Mali’s plans to
take an increased share of revenue from domiciled mining operations when Reuters broke the
story back on July 14th (7) and that weekend in IKN739, mused on how it “…would have been
interesting to be a fly on the wall of The Clive’s office when he first heard about this.” Last
week the project became a reality (8):
BAMAKO, Aug 29 (Reuters) - Mali's interim President Assimi Goita has signed into law
a new mining code which will allow the military-led government to increase its
ownership of gold concessions and recoup what it says is a major shortfall in
production revenues.
The new code, signed on state television late on Monday, will allow the state and local
investors to take stakes as high as 35% in mining projects compared with 20% now,
and could more than double the sector's contribution to gross domestic product to
around 20%, the government has said.
We don’t yet know how the Fekola bottom line will be affected, but in theory Mali could take
another 15% of its EBIT revenue over the 20% it currently takes, as per the agreement in place
since late 2021. And here’s what the development has done to the share price:
With BTG now down 13.2% in 2023, we remind readers gold bullion is up around 5% YTD.
The TinyCaps List
After 35 weeks of 2023, the TinyCaps show a gain of 25.% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Aurelius Min AUL.v 0.07 49.787 1.00 0.02 -71.4%
Coast Copper COCO.v 0.045 64.001 3.84 0.06 33.3%
District Metals DMX.v 0.075 86.891 17.81 0.205 173.3%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.13 69.962 5.95 0.085 -34.6%
Manitou Gold MTU.v 0.02 344.568 18.95 0.055 175.0%
Nine Mile Metals NINE.cse 0.29 57.025 5.13 0.09 -69.0%
Palamina Corp PA.v 0.08 65.285 9.14 0.14 75.0%
Precipitate Gold PRG.v 0.075 130.367 7.82 0.06 -20.0%
South Star STS.v 0.55 40.129 20.87 0.52 -5.5%
Viva Gold VAU.v 0.14 106.721 14.41 0.135 -3.6%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 25.26%
18

This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $20m. They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a
little and allowed sub-U$20m market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, but it was a particularly depressing exercise to trawl through the whole of the TSXV and find companies
that are small enough, but with life in them. The vast majority of sub-$20m stocks are broken stocks, either
traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2023. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
To be anally exact, the TinyCaps average added 6.21% TinyCaps, 2023 weekly tracker
50%
on the week thanks to the five winners (COCO.v, 45%
DMX.v, PA.v, STS.v, VAU.v) doing better percentage 40%
35%
numbers than the three losers (LMS.v, NINE.cse,
30%
PRG.v), while the only two unchanged stocks were the 25%
20%
suspended listing (AUL.v, MTU.v). The best move of
15%
them all came from Palamina (PA.v up 16.7%), the 10%
5%
worst from Latin Metals (LMS.v down 15.0%) and with
0%
that, the list shows its best average since May. Here’s
hoping the good vibes continue as the sector gets back
from its vacations.
Palamina Corp (PA.v): The current move is wholly connected to the pending court decision
on the claims its sister company, Winshear (WINS.v) has in its case against the country of
Tanzania. This desk hears that a decision on that case could come at any time in the next
couple of weeks, is almost certainly in favour of WINS.v and will come with an agreed payment
schedule. If WINS can successfully jump all those hoops, it will likely pay a one time dividend
and PA gets its cash injection, being a large shareholder of the sister.
As permitting for its “Puno Orogenic Belt” project is taking an inordinate length of time through
sheer bureaucratic red tape (and no fault of the company, we understand), time may be
running out this year to get the road cut and pad constructed to drill holes into the targets it
most wants to test. Therefore we may see PA rest on its laurels for 2023 until the permits
show, or if there’s time they may try to run a limited program using helicopter support (which
isn’t too expensive when the main payload is a man-portable drillrig and the distances are only
a couple of kilometres either way).
The high risk dice-throwers among the readership may want to consider either WINS or PA with
its court judgment coming up (I’m pencilling in 35c for WINS and 20c for PA if the ruling goes
well and payment is forthcoming after).
Latin Metals (LMS.v): Now dropped from the main ‘Stocks to Follow’ Watch List, coverage
returns to this section and it didn’t come as much of a surprise to see DMX failing to hold the
10c line, what with its “dilutive but isn’t” debt financing deal we considered last week adding
warrants to the overhang and cash debt to the
books.
District Metals (DMX.v): The momentum
gathered from the positive news out of Sweden
for Uranium that we mentioned last weekend
continued into the week and DMX is almost 50%
up in two weeks. That’s what these tinycaps can
do and it’s why we watch them.
19
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2yluj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6gua ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3pes
source: IKN calcs, TSX data

NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future
I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
Chile: Aurora Australis
It may be simple coincidence, but the return of Aurora Williams as Minister of Mining, highly
respected in all corners of Chile’s mining sector from governments to Codelco to companies and
their Chambers of Mining, has brought a new round of pro-mining newsflow from the world of
permitting, permit appeals and even Presidential speeches. A list of five things:
1) The new directorate of Codelco has been installed and has made its situation clear to the
country, putting the issue of costs at the State run company onto the public agenda and the
need for production growth for a government sorely in need of funding for its programs.
2) The “Comite de Ministros” permitting appeals body ratified the environmental impact permits
of the CAP Iron Ore operation, an investment worth around U$110m. This permit had been
awarded in 2021 but a community action group appealed the decision, however last week the
Boric government upheld the original Piñera government permit award and sided with the
mining company.
3) The country’s SEA environmental body approved the growth project at Anglo’s El Soldado
mine, rejecting calls from anti-mining bodies to deny the permit. The project involves a cpaex
expansion of around U$40m, which isn’t much but without it El Soldado would have gone into
care&maintenance. The expansion project was opposed by locals but once again, we see Chile’s
environmental permitting authorities coming down on the side of the miners.
4) We even had new Mining Minister Williams getting in on the policy definition act when
making a speech early in the week. On Tuesday at the Antofagasta region annual mining
dinner, Williams covered several points of interest, such as her satisfaction that over 15% of
the country’s mining workforce was now female (up from 10% when she was Minister during
the Bachelet government). But her most telling comments came when addressing the need for
economic growth in the mining industry (9)
“This is not a personal challenge, it needs the joint effort of all you (present). Without a
social base we aren’t going to build the mining sector that we want. We (in
Antofagasta) have the highest level of unemployment (in Chile), we need to meet the
demand for jobs with supply. I invite you to build a mining sector of leadership and
hope.”
5) Last but not least we have one of Chile mining’s biggest occasions, the National Mining
Society’s (SONAMI) annual “Mining Dinner”(Cena Minero) which is always in August, always in a
swanky Santiago hotel, always hot ticket and always brings together the great and good of the
sector. At the event, guest of honour was President Gabriel Boric who gave the keynote speech
and had things to say about the permitting track for mining companies (10). He covered
aspects of the mining sector such as the new royalty law (on large scale copper producers and
said that the eventual deal was “less than the government wanted, but more than the sector
wanted to pay”, suggesting that some sort of compromise had been reached. Then on
permitting matters he first told the assembled mining world that his government was sending a
law bill to Congress that would speed up the process for some mining permits unrelated to
environmental concerns, calling the slow speed of permitting in the country “a hidden tax” on
the sector. As for the more thorny issue of environmental permitting, here’s a quote:
“Also and at the same time, we are pushing through changes in the Environmental
Impact Evaluation System (what we know as EIA) with new management measures,
changes to regulations and a law bill that will enter Congress (for debate) at the end of
2023. This will now lower the standards (of environmental permitting, but will make
them more efficient and rational, so they are a necessary condition for development.
20

The Environmental Impact Evaluation of projects must be understood as a condition for
development.”
Overall his speech went down well, according to those present, and a good feed was had by all.
The bottom line: Despite my intro paragraph above, it’s unlikely a coincidence that Aurora
Williams’ arrival has come at a time of détente between public and private sectors on mining in
Chile. This is good news for the sector and the move away from the anti-mining atmosphere we
saw in early 2022 at the start of the Boric government continues.
Ecuador: A poll and potentially important meeting this Wednesday
First up, today Sunday the Ecuador polling company Communicaliza published (11) the results
of a voter intention poll for the second round run-off between Daniel Noboa (right wing
orthodox) and Luisa González (left wing Rafael Correa dauphine) set for October 15th. The poll
took the opinions of 6,002 people via online questioning on Friday September 1st and Saturday
2nd (it’s fresh info) and is given a margin of errors of +/-1.26% by the company. Here’s the
main slide from the presentation deck:
Of the decided voters, 54.87% said Noboa and 45.13% said González. But that’s the split on
active votes and not the entire story as 8.6% of those asked said they would spoil their ballot
and 12.9% are undecided (you’ll notice that if you add up the totals in the above chart we get
to 121.5%). So the current intention puts Noboa in as favourite but that’s less than a 5% swing
and Luisa won’t feel out of this story by any means.
Next item happens this Wednesday, September 6th, which sees CONAIE and its party political
arm Pachakutik meet to decide on whether they will endorse either of the candidates for
President, or alternatively take a neutral stance and not support either Noboa or González in
the run-off (12). Notably, CONAIE has already stated that the two entities, i.e. the larger and
more grassroots CONAIE and the smaller Pachakutik with its Congressional seats and politicians
(20 in the last Assembly, just 5 in the upcoming) may decide on different stances. This makes
sense considering the internecine conflict that’s been rolling on for the past couple of years
between the two.
Whatever happens, the most important decision on support will come from the CONAIE
executive and that of its leader, Leonidas Iza. We again point to the way Luisa González will
need some sort of alliance with a large voting bloc such as that of Conaie in order to win the
run-off, thereby giving Iza the potential kingmaker role and in the position to demand some of
the policy points important to CONAIE. Therein lies to risk to mining, so we’ll be watching this
CONAIE/Pachakutik meeting carefully to see what they decide.
In other election news (13), the run-off candidate Luisa González is now wearing a bullet-proof
vest to all public campaigning events after receiving credible death threats, apparently from the
same people who murdered the Construye Party candidate Fernando Villavicencio in the run-up
to the first round vote. Finally, we now have the date set for the only live TV debate between
21

the two run-off candidates. That’s set for Sunday, October 1st and as it’s typical to see electors
make up their minds on the back of the live TV debate there, it could make or break the
election for either candidate. We remind readers that a Daniel Noboa win on October 15th would
be a bullish catalyst for all things Ecuador financial, mining stocks included, over the very-near-
term. What happens after that is anyone’s guess, but there is a potential trade set-up in the
offing if Noboa can crystallize his current poll lead and become President-Elect. Six weeks to go.
Argentina: Milei favourite in ballotage intentions
With the big three candidates now known and the reduced likelihood of any of them making it
to the finish line in Round One in October, eyes turn to the ballotage in November between the
top two and the most interesting parts of recent polls are the sections in which they predict the
“two from three” winner. This voter intention poll (14) from pollster Opinaia (taken 18th to 21st
August, 2,523 people, by telephone) is typical of the results being harvested and here’s the pay
dirt chart, with a little added by your truly:
Long story short and ignoring the effects of the those who will spoil ballot, not turn up to vote
(it’s an obligatory election) or have not decided, the independent/liberatarian candidate Javier
Milei is favourite:
 If Milei up against current government candidate Sergio Massa, he wins 49% to
30% (a massive margin in Argentina elections), FWIW this is the most likely
scenario today.
 If Milei faces right wing opposition candidate Patrricia Bullrich, he still wins by a
closer 39% to 31% margin. In this scenario we see spoiled ballots rise as left wing
voters run out of viable options. This is a logically possible scenario.
 If for some reason Milei’s support collapses and the run-off is between Sergio Massa
and Patricia Bullrich, then Bullrich wins by 44% to 32%.
There’s no certainties in an election in Argentina, but as things stand today Javier Milei is now
clear favourite to be the next President of Argentina.
That’s fine and all good for the mining industry as
stands, we’ve noted for many months that all three
candidates or political stance in the country are now
pro-mining in nature. However, if Milei becomes
President as from 2024, it may bring a new round of
social instability that affects the entire nation and on
my “life cycle” graphic (that has stood the test of
time, this is now a decade old) I’d put us at around
7pm or so. That gives those of you looking to make
money from an investment in Argentina a year or
perhaps two years for your trades. For what it’s
worth, I have this visual in mind when considering
my exposure to AbraSilver (ABRA.v) and Aldebaran
(ALDE.v).
22

On this subject, I’ve received several queries via several channels this week (including face to
face which made a refreshing change and thank you for coffee, you know who you are)
regarding my personal opinion of Javier Milei, which if you hadn’t worked out already is very
negative. So rather than rant about the very sketchy character of Milei and come across as
highly judgmental and an old fuddy-duddy who is out of touch with the zeitgeist, luckily enough
one of Argentina’s top political columnists, Joaquin Morales Solá in La Nación (a right wing voice
in a right wing newspaper) came out with an op-ed this weekend entitled “Is Milei Fit To Be
President?” in which he lists several recent occasions when Milei has shown reason to doubt his
mental competence (15). While clearly some sort of intellectual hit piece written by someone
who will want Patricia Bullrich as next President, it also lists and compiles a list of moments in
which Milei has acted in a “more than eccentric” way (let’s say). Milei has already picked up a
reputation for berating female reporters who get a mouthful of abuse for asking tougher
questions, even if posed respectfully. Milei has been seen reacting violently to anyone who
touches him, even in a neutral and innocent way. We know his ranting style goes down well
with a section of the voting public sick of the same old same old politics, but there are
occasions when he flies totally off the handle and in the words of Solá is “incapable of
controlling his emotions or reactions”. If you want to put a positive spin on that, you could say
Milei may have a carefully considered election campaign strategy to wear his heart on his sleeve
and shake up “the system”, it amounts to the same thing. Later in his op-ed Solá writes this
(translated) and this desk wholly agrees:
“The Milei style is attracting three types of voter. The forgotten, which explains how the
Libertarian leader has won in lower class communities in the Buenos Aires conurbation
who have traditionally been Peronist. Then those want to break with the status quo and
are carried away by the shouts from Milei, not by his ideas or even the targets of his
aggression. And finally his fanatics, another generation deaf and dumb to the points of
view of others, reactionary to any idea that casts doubt on their leader. In the last 40
years of the democratic period , we’ve only seen this level of fanaticism in the days
following the death of Nestor Kirchner, the fanaticism that was wholly pro-Cristina and
didn’t (doesn’t?) tolerate dissidence. Milei says some very serious things (accusations
against people) and apparently never has to provide evidence.”
To round off, in your author’s opinion and after watching his ascent for close on two years, a
character such as that of Milei making it to Head of State would be bad news for any country
but it could be outright dangerous for an institutionally weak country such as South America’s
#1 Basket Case Country, Argentina (and sorry Ecuador, you’re merely a young pretender).
Market Watching
Provenance Gold (PAU.cse) update
We first featured this small exploreco in IKN740 dated July 23rd 2023 in the main fundies note
“Provenance Gold (PAU.cse): Ignored and Interesting”, with a brief updates notes in the two
weekends that followed in IKN741 and IKN742. Today we update the story. The two main
reasons we like the potential of PAU are in that title, as despite recently returning drill assays
such as 137m of 1.65 g/t gold (a cut that includes 32m of 4.0 g/t gold) from surface at its main
Eldorado project in Idaho USA, it’s an exploreco flying under the radar of almost everyone, even
dedicated sector watchers. However, timing for those on the outside looking in is also a
potential positive and we summed up the factors in the closing paragraphs of IKN740:
“There’s (also) enough to like about the corporate structure and for once, the fact the
company is running on treasury fumes is an advantage to us retail grunts, as it may
well allow us insight into the real potential of Eldorado when PAU moves to finance,
something they’re going to need to do sooner rather than later.
As such, today’s fundies note is more of a heads-up on a possible tinycap than any
firm trade plan or recommendation. There’s enough to like to make this into a
possible, but at this point in time that’s as far as it goes. However, if PAU can raise the
cash it needs in good style, it would be its own green flag and show that the team’s
23

high opinion of Eldorado is shared by peers.”
In IKN740 we assumed PAU was down to its last few pennies, we also assumed it would look to
raise cash via a placement and sure enough, those have come to pass and the NR announcing
the placement (16) arrived on August 21st, a week or so before the company filed its 2q23
financials last week. Here we check on both and mark cards on how we see this potential trade
going forward. We begin with the financing news and here’s the bit that matters from the NR:
“…intends to complete a non-brokered private placement (the “Offering”) of up to
10,000,000 units (“Units”) at a price of $0.08 per Unit for gross proceeds of up to
$800,000.
Each Unit will consist of one common share in capital of the Company (a "Common
Share") and one common share purchase warrant (a "Warrant"). Each Warrant will
entitle the holder thereof to purchase one Common Share at a price of $0.12 per
Common Share for a period of 36 months from the date of issuance.”
At the time in IKN740, aside from forecasting this move we added a list of things to watch for.
We guessed they’d “need around a million”, so C$800k is slightly light but arguably in the
ballpark. We were looking out for the nature of the deal, so seeing a full warrant attached at a
12c strike means it’s quite expensive for the company and a decent deal for those coming in.
We wondered about any announced participants in the deal, but nothing was mentioned in the
NR. Finally, we were watching to see “whether it closes successfully and in a timely manner”
and on that, the August 21st NR said it would close on/about August 31st. As that was two
trading days ago it means the closure is slightly late and that’s something to consider, but if it
closes in good order in the days to come and all the $800k is taken, that would be forgiven
quickly.
So that’s the placement covered, now for the financials as filed to SEDAR last week and in some
of these charts, I’ve added guesstimates for the next couple of quarters and assumed the
current placement closes in good order and is fully taken.
As the expenses breakdown (below left) and P+L losses (below right) show, PAU was indeed
running at low gear in 2q23 with an operating loss of $0.106m, while the net loss of just saw
that positive adjusted from a non-cash forex gain (the Greenback and the Loonie)
C$m PAU.cse: Expenses breakdown C$m PAU.cse: losses before other items/Net Loss, per qtr
0.4 other 0.7 loss before other items
0.35 s IR h / a s r h e a c re o h m o p ld comms 0.6 net loss
0.3 consult/mgmt fees 0.5
0.25
0.4
0.2
0.3
0.15
0.2
0.1
0.05 0.1
0 0
1q21 2q21 3q21 4q21 1q22 2q22 3q22 4q22 1q23 2q23 1q21 2q21 3q21 4q21 1q22 2q22 3q22 4q22 1q23 2q23
source: company filings source: company filings
Overall, assets remained tiny at C$2.676m
and they are nearly all fixed assets. As for liabilities, they continue to be tiny but PAU
apparently tapped some credit line to get to the end of the quarter, as accounts payable moved
up $110k and the total came to $204k. Also as you can see, we expect PAU will settle its bills
once the current placement closes and get back to its normal level for current liabilities in the
two quarters to come, around the $100k mark in total.
PAU.cse: Assets, per qtr
5 4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5 24
0
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
C$m fixed PAU.cse: Liabilities per qtr
other current 0.55 cash 0.5
0.45
0.4
0.35
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
source: company filings
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
C$m LT liab
current liab
source: company filings

We focus on the balance sheet liquidity in these charts and PAU was down to just $36k in the
treasury at end 2q23, that’s the living and breathing definition of “running on fumes” and as
we’re now two months down the line from this snapshot point, let’s assume we’re now at big
fat zero. That along with the modest addition to payables saw working capital dip into the
negative in Q2, so our forecasts for 3q23 and 4q23 take that into account, as well as assuming
the $800k fully fills. All things being equal, PAU should have a modest amount of money with
which to enter 2024 and put in some more drill holes.
PAU.cse: Cash treasury per qtr
The final tracking chart is that of shares out and again we assume the placement fully fills,
bringing shares out to a total of 89.548m. That cash
should keep the company running a while, but at
some point in 2024 it will have to come back to the
well and therefore we also pencil in a total of 100m
shares come the end of the first half of 2024. That
may be wrong in both size and timing, it’s more of a
mental marker and reminder PAU will need more
cash at some point.
Aside the fully paid-up shares, there are 3m
management incentive options priced at 10.5c. That’s
no biggie, but there are also 35.78m warrants out at
strike prices ranging between 15c and 24c, so we
need to assume another 10m warrants added to that pile from the current placement with their
12c strike and that makes for quite a lump of derivative paper. If things go well there won’t be
much of a overhang to contend with at 12c, but above there the 15c line may be a tougher
barrier to cross.
The bottom line: The 2q23 numbers came in largely as expected, the placement opened at the
time expected, the size is slightly on the low size but nothing untoward. What matters now is to
see that placement closing in correct style and while running two days over the expected
closure date isn’t a big thing, if there’s no news by this time next weekend the assumptions
baked into the above charts are likely wrong. If the placement closes and the 9c prices we’ve
seen in the last couple of weeks continue, this stock is likely to make the Watch List above (or
perhaps the TinyCaps list for 2024) as it would merit closer attention. However, any long delay
to close and any shortfall in financing will play against the company and its story, so we’ll see
how things go before doing anything else.
However, we’ll finish on a positive note and reiterate
the reason for our original interest: This set-up is
typical of the ones that can return multi-bagger wins if
the gold market turns positive and money starts
flowing into the sector. All it would take is a new
interest in US-based early stage explorecos, then
some sort of strategic investor coming in to sponsor
further work and frank the credentials of what this
25
430.0 84.0
982.0
118.0
155.0
611.1
467.0
894.0 683.0 301.0 630.0 6.0
53.0
1.2
1.1
1
0.9
0.8
0.7 0.6
0.5
0.4 0.3
0.2
0.1
0
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
C$m PAU.cse: Working cap
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0 -0.2
-0.4
-0.6
source: company filings
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
C$m
source: company filings
PAU.cse: Shares Out
5.34 5.34 2.35 0.16 0.16
5.47 5.97 5.97 5.97 5.97 5.97 5.97
5.98 6.98 6.98
0.001
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4 tse42q1 tse42q2
C$m
source: company filings/IKN ests

small team has done to date, and PAU could run far and fast at an implied 100m shares out in
2024.
I remain interested, which is more than I can say for most CSE-listed companies.
Conclusion
IKN746 is done, we end with some bullet points:
 Every time I look at the underlying numbers of the top Pick Minera Alamos (MAI.v), the
value screams back at me. This time around I’ve tried to cut the valuation to its very
core, but even if we assume MAI only has Santana and that goes on to under-perform
compared to our original expectations, it’s a buy. The delays and permit foot-dragging
has been a royal pain in the behind, but it won’t take much for the wait to be worth our
time.
 It was a good week for copper, with the price improving somewhat but more
importantly, the narrative made a big change and China is now our friend, not our foe.
 With Labo(u)r Day now behind us, we should see a pick up in news flow. About time
too.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stock is Minera Alamos (MAI.v). Flash
updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best wishes, Mark
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://mineraalamos.com/news/2023/operations-update-and-q2-financials/
(2) https://finance.yahoo.com/news/contango-announces-commencement-mining-operations-110000819.html
(3) https://abrasilver.com/news-releases/abrasilver-announces-final-assay-results-from-phase-iii-drilling-at-jac-zone-
including-148-gt-silver-over-64-metres
(4) https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/chinese-manufacturing-pmi-594
(5) https://www.rumbominero.com/chile/produccion-chilena-de-cobre-julio/
(6) https://www.bigmarker.com/vid-conferences/ASCU-SEPT2023-TownHall
(7) https://www.mining.com/web/new-mali-mining-law-could-boost-state-local-interest-in-projects-to-35/
(8) https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/mali-president-signs-new-mining-code-bid-raise-govt-stake-2023-08-29/
(9) https://www.cnnchile.com/m360/aurora-williams-encuentro-aia-invito-construir-mineria-esperanza-
liderazgos_20230825/
(10) https://www.df.cl/empresas/mineria/boric-en-cena-de-la-mineria-no-les-quepa-duda-que-nuestro-pais-va-a
(11) https://twitter.com/estebi2705/status/1698405857703117070
(12) https://www.eluniverso.com/noticias/politica/pachakutik-conaie-segunda-vuelta-elecciones-presidenciales-2023-
crisis-politicas-daniel-noboa-azin-luisa-gonzalez-alcivar-nota/
(13) https://www.eluniverso.com/noticias/politica/luisa-gonzalez-comenzo-a-usar-chaleco-antibalas-por-supuestas-
amenazas-contra-su-vida-nota/
(14) https://www.iprofesional.com/politica/387869-nuevas-encuestas-que-pasa-con-milei-y-quien-ganaria-el-balotaje
(15) https://www.lanacion.com.ar/opinion/esta-milei-en-condiciones-de-ser-presidente-
nid03092023/?utm_source=n_&utm_medium=nl_titulares_del_dia&utm_campaign=nota_titulo_1
26

(16) https://www.provenancegold.com/20230821-provenance-gold-announces-financing
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2022
Closed in 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
Goldshore Res GSHR.v Nov'22 C$0.18 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 88.9% Quick profit taken
Palamina Corp PA.v Dec'22 C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.08 -72.9% Clear-out of underperformer
Pure Gold PGM.h Dec'22 C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.015 -89.3% tiny trade on vh risk, went Ch11
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Set-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
27

Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
28

Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
29

completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
30