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The IKN Weekly
Week 745, August 27th 2023
Contents
This Week: In Today’s Edition, US BLS Friday and Labor Day on the horizon, Wall Street hates
gold.
Fundamental Analysis: SilverCrest Metals Inc (SILV) (SIL.to): Considering the financials.
Stocks to Follow: Latin Metals (LMS.v), Minera Alamos (MAI.v), SolGold (SOLG.to), Minera
IRL (MIRL.cse), Equinox Gold (EQX) and Fortuna Silver (FSM), AbraSilver (ABRA.v), Orecap
Invest Corp (OCI.v), QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v), Surge Copper (SURG.v).
Copper Basket: Overview, Western Copper & Gold (WRN.to) (WRN), Arizona Sonoran
(ASCU.to), Oroco Resources (OCO.v).
Producer Basket: Overview, Hecla Mining (HL).
TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Coast Copper (COCO.v), District Metals (DMX.v).
Regional Politics: Considering the Ecuador presidential election results, Ecuador: The Chocó
Andino and Yasuni referendum results, Colombia: The National Mining Agency does a
roadshow, Argentina: The first polls after the PASO.
Market Watching: Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v) 2q23 financials, More on Argonaut (AR.to) Wesdome
(WDO.to) and risk vs. reward.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
In Today’s Edition
 Today’s main note is the by-demand look at SilverCrest Metals (SILV) (SIL.to) and while
I was a little slow getting it to print, the three weeks taken to cogitate on the trade
potential and allow the stock to find its level after the fun and games we saw around its
Technical Report update and then its strong 2q23 financials has been a benefit. So with
a little extra 20/20 hindsight on our side, we make a case for silver producer ownership
(and I can’t quite believe I just wrote that).
 Today’s intro isn’t long, but documents the continued disdain shown by the western
wrold’s capital markets toward gold as an investment or insurance policy. The monetary
metal has never been this expensive in dollars while being this unpopular on Wall
Street, we the pro-gold community should pay attention.
 The Copper Basket reminds you of the complete and utter washout sentiment the
market had toward China just a few days ago and compares it to the blather and
nonsense being peddled by the trade papers to explain copper’s rally last week. There’s
a lesson in this somewhere, perhaps one about ignoring the media noise.
 Regional Politics continues with its coverage of the Argentine and Ecuador elections.
While Argentina now has a clear favourite for the next Head of State (no matter how
bizarre that presidency may turn out to be), the Ecuador vote is still a difficult one to
call even after being narrowed down to two candidates. Also, the Argentina result is
unlikely to have any immediate effect on the mining sector (outside of forex
influences), but a lot may hinge on the winner in Ecuador.
1

US BLS Friday and Labor Day on the horizon
It seems to have come round quickly this time, so a reminder that Friday sees the latest Jobs
Report from the US BLS, with the consensus for the month of August for +187,000 Non-Farm
Payroll jobs added and a headline unemployment rate of 3.5% (both those numbers are,
strangely, exactly the same as the July results).
Also, a quick reminder that in eight days’ time we have that traditional “Summer’s End, Get
Back To Work” signal of Labor Day in The USA. The markets will be closed for trading on
September 4th, then after we can expect the mining market to do its usual job of perking up
and bringing more news to our eyes and ears. It’s also the opening of one of the classic
“financing window” periods and we’ll see how all that goes, as well.
Wall Street hates gold
Last weekend’s intro “Uncomfortably Long” previewed Jackson Hole and if you’d like to read
Chairman Powell’s speech to the assembled great and good, it’s here (1). For what it’s worth, I
have three takeaways from the speech:
1) The last line he used, “We will keep at it until the job is done.” Just from that seems to have
spring all the subsequent chatter and talking head noise about “Powell got one more raise to
make” or the “He’s almost done” talk of the last 48 hours.
2) But hey, not so fast, because if I had to zoom in on one section it would be this one (quote):
“But we are attentive to signs that the economy may not be cooling as expected. So far
this year, GDP growth has come in above expectations and above its longer-run trend,
and recent readings on consumer spending have been especially robust. In addition,
after decelerating sharply over the past 18 months, the housing sector is showing signs
of picking back up. Additional evidence of persistently above-trend growth could put
further progress on inflation at risk and could warrant further tightening of monetary
policy.”
To translate, “I may only raise one but be darned sure that I’ll jawbone more raises and
threaten you with them in order to keep markets under my power.”
3) The final takeaway is the lack of reaction from the markets, in stark contrast to the 2022
Jackson Hole speech that shot the Dow up 1,000 points on the day. This time the market was
“Yup, we expected all that” and moved on.
Which is what we’ll do now, in order to catch up on our GLD tracking charts because…
GLD gold holdings, 2023 to date (metric tonnes)
950 945
940
935
930
925
920
915
910
905
900
895
890
885
880
…the inventory/price ratio continues in the dumpster but the real news is now holdings, which
have sold off to under 900 metric tonnes for the first time since the Covi crisis. The precipitous
recent drop in gold holdings at GLD is a sign of the continued hatred shown toward the
monetary metal by Wall St and is indicative of money looking for and finding yield in US
Treasurys. Poor old ZIRPy gold cannot compete with bonds and under the circumstances, it’s
fairly impressive how gold has managed to stay as high as it has. That’s all to do with the rest
of the world buying up bullion as the North American market turns its collective back. We’re a
2
32/1/3 32/1/01 32/1/71 32/1/42 32/1/13 32/2/7 32/2/41 32/2/12 32/2/82 32/3/7 32/3/41 32/3/12 32/3/82 32/4/4 32/4/11 32/4/81 32/4/52 32/5/2 32/5/9 32/5/61 32/5/32 32/5/03 32/6/6 32/6/31 32/6/02 32/6/72 32/7/4 32/7/11 32/7/81 32/7/52 32/8/1 32/8/8 32/8/51 32/8/22
mt 6.00 GLD: Inventory/Price Ratio, 2023 YTD
source: SPDR GLD data 5.90
5.80
5.70
5.60
5.50
5.40
5.30
5.20
5.10
5.00
4.90
4.80
32/1/3 32/1/01 32/1/71 32/1/42 32/1/13 32/2/7 32/2/41 32/2/12 32/2/82 32/3/7 32/3/41 32/3/12 32/3/82 32/4/4 32/4/11 32/4/81 32/4/52 32/5/2 32/5/9 32/5/61 32/5/32 32/5/03 32/6/6 32/6/31 32/6/02 32/6/72 32/7/4 32/7/11 32/7/81 32/7/52 32/8/1 32/8/8 32/8/51 32/8/22
Source: SPDR data, IKN calcs

long way from the buoyant sentiment toward gold holding under the 2020 lockdown, that’s for
sure.
GLD gold holdings, 2020 to date (metric tonnes)
1300 1250
1200
1150
1100
1050
1000
950
900
850
800
Enough intro for one day, time for some real work.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
SilverCrest Metals Inc (SILV) (SIL.to): Considering the financials
Preamble: This weekend’s main event is by request, as we take a closer look at the financials
and prospects of SilverCrest Metals (SILV) (SIL.to). There’s been background interest in this
company for a while, as its flagship Las Chispas mine went moved from development into
operating status in 2022 and declared commercial production in 4q22. Since then it has
operated well and made a healthy profit on operations for three successive quarters looks set to
continue doing the same, but as this two-month price chart of SILV shows, it’s been far from
plain sailing for the stock price recently;
The above is the updated and simplified chart of the same used to illustrate the quick note last
weekend, without the silver producers’ ETF (SIL) for context and without my red scribbles.
However, we still see the period of relative weakness that presaged the announcement of the
updated 43-101 compliant Technical Report on the last day of July. The market was nervous
coming into that Technical Report release and as it turned out, those nerves were justified. On
the news (2) SILV dropped sharply and this dive started our active interest in the stock, as seen
in IKN742 dated August 6th and our brief note that day, which ended with these words:
“If anyone’s interested enough about a deeper dive on SILV and running
the numbers on what we’d want to see from here to see the stock price
rebound, ping me a mail. Enough interest will get me to do some work,
3
02/1/2 02/3/2 02/5/1 02/6/03 02/8/92 02/01/82 02/21/72 12/2/52 12/4/62 12/6/52 12/8/42 12/01/32 12/21/22 22/2/02 22/4/12 22/6/02 22/8/91 22/01/81 22/21/71 32/2/51 32/4/61 32/6/51 32/8/41
mt 7.40 GLD: Inventory/Price Ratio, 2020 to date
source: SPDR GLD data 7.20 7.00
6.80
6.60
6.40
6.20
6.00
5.80
5.60
5.40
5.20
5.00
4.80
4.60
02/1/2 02/3/2 02/5/1 02/6/03 02/8/92 02/01/82 02/21/72 12/2/52 12/4/62 12/6/52 12/8/42 12/01/32 12/21/22 22/2/02 22/4/12 22/6/02 22/8/91 22/01/81 22/21/71 32/2/51 32/4/61 32/6/51 32/8/41
Source: SPDR data, IKN calcs

instead of being lazy about SILV.”
The reaction from this audience came (thank you for your mails) and if it weren’t for the
compelling nature of Fortuna Silver (FSM) (FVI.to) and the trade opportunity that stock offers at
the moment, SILV would have made The IKN Weekly already. Between then and now came
more material news from SILV, including the significant share price relief in the chart as from
August 9th when SILV rallied on the back of its 2q23 financials (3) that pleased the market. Also
on August 9th, the company announced (4) it was beginning an NCIB share buyback program
that allows it to buy back 5% of shares out in the next 12 months at the rate of around 80k per
trading day. That news got SILV back over the U$5 level and while it hasn’t managed to hold
that, this weekend’s U$4.83 is still a potential bargain compared to the prices the stock
commanded before this month.
Enough preamble, let’s get on with the job at hand and we’ll start with our standard corporate
structure topbox and a little background on the company:
Shares out: 147.231m
Options: 5.457m
RSU/DSU/PSU: 0.496m
Fully diluted: 153.184m
Current share price: U$4.83
Market Cap: U$711.13m
All prices are in Canadian Dollars unless stated. Forex U$0.75=CAD$1
A little history: At this point we could launch into a long background narrative on both
SilverCrest Metals the company and its main asset, the
Las Chispas mine, as both are very interesting case
studies. Instead I’m going to limit myself to just a few
lines and then get on with the real work, that of
crunching the numbers on what we know of the new
parameters at Las Chispas, from its Technical Report
announcement and parameters.
Regarding SILV the company, it began in 2015 as a spin-
out of the sale of the similarly named SilverCrest Mines
to First Majestic (AR) (FR.to). As for its operations, while
SILV has two other projects on its books, namely the El
Picacho project on Sonora State some 50 miles North of
Las Chispas and the Cruz de Mayo project South of Las
Chispas and also in Sonora, its main focus has always
been Las Chispas, located as seen on this map (right)
some 150 miles from the city of Hermosillo, Sonora
State, North Mexico. This is a great location to go mining, with a long-established tradition for
our industry and all the infrastructure and mining culture any self-respecting mining company
could ever need. SILV under the leadership of the peer-approved Eric Fier (a real mining figure
with a track record of success) went about developing Las Chispas as from 2016 and took just
six years to take it from abandoned historic mine and into operation, an impressive
achievement. As for Las Chispas, there are records of it being mined as from the 19th century
and these days it’s a silver/gold mine with significant resource of both metals.
The Las Chispas Updated Technical Report: We do not yet have the full 43-101 technical
report as it hasn’t made it to SEDAR yet. In fact, I was in two minds on whether to wait until
that document was available before running this analysis but after due consideration, there’s
enough detail from the information SILV has offered in its July 31st NR, the presentation
literature and its conference call dated August 1st to reach reasonable conclusion and to
ballpark the financials [Sidebar note: Your author reminds readers that while I do know my way
around a 43-101 document, I’m no geologist and never pretend otherwise].
4

This table from the NR that day shows the current state of the proven and probable reserve at
Las Chispas:
With 3.m tonnes grade 4.08 g/t gold and 395g/t silver that includes the two main UG vein
systems and its above ground stockpile, the reserve boasts 446Koz gold and 43.1Moz Ag. This
gives the mine its current eight year life expectancy, though we can safely assume Life of Mine
(LoM) will extend further out as on top of that reserve, Las Chispas has another 133Koz Au and
12.7Moz Ag in Measured and Indicated category, as well as a separate 159Koz Au and 11.5Moz
Ag in inferred category.
So far so good and taken at face value, this is a rich and high grade deposit. However, the
news numbers for Las Chispas as seen above were a major cause of the sell-off on July
31st/August 1st because before that, the market thought things were even better. Here’s
another table from the same NR:
This lays out what has changed in the key Proven and Probable Reserve numbers since the
2021 Technical Report on Las Chispas and as you’ll see after a minute or two, while tonnage
has remained all-but unchanged, grade for both gold and silver has dropped and as a result,
contained ounce are down accordingly.
This, along with a new and higher costs schedule, is what upset the market and sent the SILV
stock price tumbling from well above U$6 in mid July to as low as U$4.17 intraday on August
2nd, before the relief rally took hold.
However and looking with some 20/20 hindsight on what went on, it wasn’t so surprising and
despite it carrying negative news, the Updated Report is now full of solid data on which we’ll be
able to model the production schedule more accurately. It stands to simple reason that a
Technical Report published in 2021 on data from drill holes will not have the same amount of
granular detail as one that benefits from the company having been underground and mining
the deposit for almost a year. We also know that since 2021 the cost parameters of running a
mine almost anywhere in the world have increase due to industry-wide inflation effects.
However the negative adjustments to reserves, resources and mine costs at Las Chispas are
due to several factors and not just inflation. Here are some bullet points, as we try to cover this
as simply as possible:
 Now that SILV is underground and mining the deposit, it’s found significant pinch and swell
in the vein systems, as well as grade variance it did not anticipate.
 Due to that and after doing the trade-offs in production techniques, they’ve decided to
change mining techniques on significant portions of this high-grade but often narrow vein
system and use long-hole stoping. This is a more cost effective way of mining out an
underground vein deposit (the two line explanation: larger detonations release larger
amounts of rock at once, which drops to lower levels using plain old gravity, collected by
5

scoop and transported above ground), but the more wholesale nature of the blasts mean
there’s more waste mixed in with the muck and head grade to the mill drops accordingly.
 Therefore revenue per-tonne drops, even as the cheaper long hole stoping method keeps
costs under control.
 Meanwhile, sustaining capital estimates have risen by around U$100m due to the extra
infrastructure SILV will need, more development metres required, more ground support for
the underground operations, as well as changes to assumptions they previously had about
spacings between mineralized structures (once again, being “hands on” underground has
provided them with more accurate information).
All those and more, but the upshot is logical and straightforward: SILV now know more about
the mineralization at Las Chispas and while it now expects to mine and process using
parameters that are different than those in the 2021 technical report, it’s still going to be a high
grade and profitable gold/silver mining operation at current metals prices. What’s more, this
updated information is more reliable and based on almost a year of real mining people having
practical experience of these rocks.
In other words, our task is to approach this company with fresh eyes and consider it for what it
is today, rather than what it was during its development stage or what it purported to be when
going into production. Even though SILV has been around as a trade option for metals and
mining investors since 2015, has been a live prospect since 2017 and has been a producer since
2022, we must now ignore what is past and consider it on today’s parameters and decide
whether at its current price it’s a buy, hold or sell. When it comes to SILV, The IKN Weekly is
unburdened by history.
A valuation of SilverCrest Metals (SILV): We know the new share price is U$483, we know
the market cap this weekend is U$711m and bits, what we need to do now is crunch the new
production parameters at Las Chispas and see whether the current price offers a bargain to
buy. Or not. For the most part the following parameters are those offered by SILV in its new
Technical Report data and if there’s any variance, The IKN Weekly will always err on the side of
caution and build an extra layer of conservatism into the model with a view to leaving any
surprises later on to the upside. We assume:
 A production throughput of 1,200tpd at a mine that runs 360 days per year
 Silver mill head grade of 396.1g/t with recoveries of 97%, as per the new 43-101
data
 Gold mill head grade of 4.02g/t with recoveries of 98%, as per the new 43-101
data
 COGS at U$160/tonne, slightly higher than the U$155 mining and processing
costs assumption used by SILV
 G&A at U$23/tonne, again slightly above the U$21/tonne used by SILV (we are
conservative)
 Government royalties at 8%, comprising the 7.5% Mexico royalty on all mining
operations plus the 0.5% surcharge for precious metals operations. Also while on
the subject of Mexico corporate tax at 27% effective and 8% worker participation
charged to operating income, as per statute.
 TC/RC at a low 5%, as the main product is doré and less prone to onerous
middleman charges
 Depreciation rounded to U$30/annum
 Sustaining capex of U$40m per year and an exploration budget of U$10m per
year
 We use 147.23m shares out, even though that total may drop by 7m or so per
year under the current NCIB program.
 Other minor adjustments
We then take those parameters and apply them to four price decks for silver and gold:
 Price deck 1: U$1,800/oz gold and U$20/oz silver, the stress test prices.
6

 Price deck 2: U$1,900/oz gold and U$23/oz silver, to approximate to current prices
 Price deck 3: U$2,000/oz gold and U$25/oz silver, the “logical upside” price mix.
 Price deck 4: U$2,200/oz gold and U$28/oz silver, for all you optimists out there.
For what it’s worth before we dive in, the new SILV literature claims an operating margin of
48% using U$23/oz silver and U$1,800/oz gold and though that’s not a price deck combo on
show in the table today, our model with its points of conservatism built in gets those metals
prices to a 43.4% margin. That’s a reasonable approximation, I’m okay with that.
This table lays our production and gross dollar sales under each case:
SILV: Model Year Production and Metals Revenues (U$m)
Price $1,800/oz Au $1,900/oz Au $2,000/oz Au $2,200/oz Au
Deck $20/Oz Ag $23/Oz Ag $25/Oz Ag $28/Oz Ag
thruput (mt/yr) 432,000 432,000 432,000 432,000
Ag grade (g/t) 396 396 396 396
Prod.Ag (Moz) 5.34 5.34 5.34 5.34
U$/oz 20 23 25 28
silver revs 106.7 122.8 133.4 149.4
Au grade (g/t) 4.02 4.02 4.02 4.02
Au prod (oz) 54,724 54,724 54,724 54,724
U$/oz $1,800 $1,900 $2,000 $2,200
gold revs 98.5 104.0 109.4 120.4
Tot gross revs 205.2 226.7 242.9 269.8
TC/RC+NSR 25.9 28.6 30.6 34.0
Top line sales 195.0 215.4 230.7 256.3
Sources: SILV data, IKN calcs and estimates
For the record, I’ll base my target price today on the “Real World”of Preice Deck 2, i.e.
U$1,900/oz gold and U$23/oz silver, but feel free to run with a more optimistic price case if you
prefer. So with top line sales of U$215.4m average over the eight year mine life of Las Chispas
as stands, this table shows a condensed version of the model year income statement:
SILV: Condensed Income statement model (U$m)
Four 1 2 3 4
Price $1,800/oz Au $1,900/oz Au $2,000/oz Au $2,200/oz Au
Decks $20/Oz Ag $23/Oz Ag $25/Oz Ag $28/Oz Ag
Tot gross revs 205.2 226.7 242.9 269.8
TC/RC+NSR 25.9 28.6 30.6 34.0
Top line sale 195.0 215.4 230.7 256.3
COGS 64.8 64.8 64.8 64.8
Depreciation 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0
SGA+R&D 19.9 19.9 19.9 19.9
Op income 80.2 100.7 116.0 141.6
Interest 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Workers Part. 6.4 8.1 9.3 11.3
Tax 19.9 25.0 28.8 35.2
Net income 53.9 67.6 77.9 95.1
Shares out 147.23 147.23 147.23 147.23
EPS 0.37 0.46 0.53 0.65
Sust. Capex 40 40 40 40
FCF 0.84 0.93 1.00 1.12
Sources: SILV data, IKN calcs & estimates
7

We expect operating income to average U$100.7m per year, with a net of U$67.6m. That
generates the following price target but before you get hung up on what might seem a low
number to you, check out the notes underneath:
SILV Sales and earnings Target price & valuation data for SILV based on
Price deck 1 2 3 4 U$23/oz silver and U$1,900/oz gold (2)
Sales (U$m) 195 215 230 256 12-month target $5.51 based on 12x EPS
Sales growth 10% 7% 11% Upside to target 14%
EPS 0.37 0.46 0.53 0.65 Mkt cap (U$m) $711 Enterprise value $676
FCF 0.84 0.93 1.00 1.12 P/sales (1) 3.30 EV/sales (1) 3.14
P/E (1) 13.2 EV/EBITDA (1) 6.1
P/E (2) 10.5 EV/EBITDA (2) 5.2
P/E (3) 9.1 EV/EBITDA (3) 4.6
I’m fully aware that a 12-month target of U$5.51 for a stock priced at U$4.83 this weekend isn’t
going to impress this audience, but it’s as much about my personal taste (or distaste) for silver
stocks as anything else. Please note:
 We base our estimate on U$23/oz silver and U$1,900/oz gold, plus a slightly higher costs
backdrop and a mine that will spend around U$40m a year in sustaining capital, with a lot
of that front-ended due to the change in mining method to come.
 We’re valuing on bottom line earnings rather than free cash flow this time, as the
assumption is that SILV is now a mature producer that has to pay its taxes on its single
operating mine.
 As for the multiple, while I’m aware silver producers can demand a much higher multiple
to earnings than other mining companies, I’ve never really understood why that is (aside
from the rarity factor and the potential of being bought out as one of the very few highly
profitable mines in the world that has silver as its main revenue generator). With that in
mind I’ve chosen a 12X multiple to EPS, but recognize that could go higher and the
market may offer greater rewards, particularly if it gets bullish on PM miners again.
 Another reason for the comparatively modest 12X multiple is our assumption of an eight
years mine life, as per the current plan, though Las Chispas will almost certainly see an
extension to that.
All that conservatism bakes in a lower target price and explains my U$5.51 target. However,
this sensitivities table shows how the target price is affected by the different metals price decks
and also a higher 16X multiple, which is too rich for my personal blood but is possible if we
consider the history of the silver mining sub-sector.
SILV tgt sensitivities on EPS & Metals Decks (in USD)
Price Deck 12x EPS 16X EPS
1 (1.8k Au, 20/oz Ag) $4.39 $5.86
2 (1.9k Au, 23/oz Ag) $5.51 $7.35
3 (2.0k Au, 25/oz Ag) $6.35 $8.47
4 (2.2k Au, 28/oz Ag) $7.75 $10.33
source: IKN calcs & ests
You are welcome to choose another price target from that table, however and for the time
being, I’m going to stick with the real world price deck and a 12X multiple that’s more than
enough in this current market, in my opinion. And let’s be clear, regular readers will know by
now that I don’t like silver stocks that much anyway and will always try to find an excuse to
avoid them.
However what the numbercrunch shows, with little room for doubt, is that Las Chispas is set to
be a highly profitable mine at any reasonable metals price in the years to come. This is a great
little operation and Eric Fier and his team should be justly proud of what they’ve built here. Mt
8

only true objection is that of share price value as, at U$4.83 this weekend, it may be a little on
the cheap side but I don’t think the market is far wrong under current circumstances. There are
a range of price catalysts available to SILV going forward and if SILV adds mine life, or metals
prices rise, or they use the cash they are bound to make in shareholder-friendly ways, or they
build or buy another mine (etc) there’s plenty of potential value to add to today’s SILV and
management has said for the record that they’re looking to make this company into a growth
story. For that, Las Chispas is an excellent cornerstone asset and is set to throw off decent free
cash flow in the years to come, but at the moment the share price looks close to fully priced.
Financials overview: Before wrapping up, a quick scoot round a few of the usual suspects
charts to show some of the background that is included in the assumptions today without being
stated out loud. Operating results to date (below left) show strong cash generation since going
commercial and the net EPS chart (below right) forecasts that to continue.
SILV: Quarterly Earnings overview
The overview assets chart shows the type of incremental growth you’d expect from a mine
that’s now producing and making a profit.
More interesting is the liabilities chart and the way SILV has managed to pay down U$90m of
cash debt and is now for all intents and purposes debt free. This is one reason it can offer a
share buyback program to its shareholders now, but for the time being I’m going to assume the
count stays at the 147.231m we see today. To the right of the share count chart, we expect
cahs and therefore working capital to improve steadily even as SILV spends heavily on
sustaining capital in the next couple of years (we show a few quarters here to give the idea).
9
7.2 8.0 9.1 8.04 3.41 5.62
0.85
4.22 6.53
0.26
7.32 3.83
U$m SILV: EPS, per qtr
80 revenues COGS Mine Op. Inc
70
60
50
40
30
20 10
0
3q22 4q22 1q23 2q23
source: company filings
8.8-
1.2-
8.4
9.5- 0.6- 2.2-
2.71
3.21
5.81 0.61 3.81 3.81
20.0
17.5
15.0
12.5
10.0
7.5
5.0
2.5
0.0 -2.5
-5.0 -7.5 -10.0
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
U$/share
source: company filings, IKN calcs
SILV: Assets Breakdown per qtr
500 450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4 tse42q1
inventories SILV: Liabilities Breakdown per qtr
U$m f o ix th e e d r current 120 110 cash&ST 100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
source: company filings
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4 tse42q1
U$m
LT liab current liab
source: company filings
SILV: Shares Out
9.48 5.58 8.58 9.19
5.701 2.011 5.821 1.921 3.921 5.441 9.441 0.541 6.541 9.541 1.641 5.641 2.741 2.741 2.741 2.741 2.741
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60 40
20
0
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
source: company filings
serahs
fo
snoillim
SILV: Working Capital per qtr
68.621
96.222
33.391 43.671 55.971 26.061 17.641
70.921 198.47 464.17 553.69 511 331 151
240
220
200
180
160
140
120 100
80 60
40
20
0
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4 tse42q1
source company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim

There’s nothing at all to complain about in these charts (as well as others left for another day)
and the way SILV moved quickly to pay down its debt pile is indicative of a company that runs a
tight financial ship. Very likeable numbers.
Discussion and conclusion
The working title for today’s note was “SilverCrest Metals (SILV) (SIL.to): The one I should
have bought instead of Fortuna Silver?” and while that didn’t make the edit (going with the
straightforward and boring “Considering the financials” instead), that question is a good way to
frame this conclusion section. The answer is “no”, I believe that FSM is a better bet going
forward, as even if gold doesn’t start running higher FSM has the type of organic growth you
want at this point baked into its mine plan but not into its share price.
Here, SILV has seen the luster taken off its image by that 43-101 Technical Report update and
the market has adjusted its expectations accordingly. Las Chispas is still a great little operation,
of that there is no doubt and we expect the company will be able to extend that mine life via
the drillbit and keep the cash from operations rolling in. However and although I know I’m
leaving myself open to accusations of pitching too low or being overly leery of silver miners, I
don’t think the market is very wrong about its current equity price, all things considered. If you
can award SILV a higher multiple, or if metals prices rise, or if they add NAV via new resource
discoveries then its price will go higher but at
the moment, upside seems limited by the
circumstances around it.
If you’re in the market for a silver trade and
are looking to speculate on higher prices, SILV
offers a quality way to add leverage and given
the right combination of market influences, it
will go higher and make me look stupid for not
buying any. However and on due
consideration, I think there’s more potential
reward in other places and will therefore pass
on this good miner that’s valued close to its
correct level today.
Stocks to Follow
It wasn’t a massive rally, but the Stocks to Follow list did the right thing and added value on the
back of gold’s relief rally and return to a nineteen handle. Of the 21 names on the list today,
nine showed week-over-week wins (ARG.to, EQX, FSM, CTGO, ABRA.v NCAU.v, RIO.v, OCI.v,
MARI.to), another five were unchanged (MAI.v, SOLG.to, MIRL.cse, SURG.v, LBC.v) and seven
were losers (QCCU.v, FDY.to, WEX.v, ALDE.v, LMS.v, RUG.v, MENE.v). That’s okay as a
headcount, more importantly just two of those losers (FDY, QCCU) were from the upper half of
the table where most of the money is buried.
As for double figure percentage moves, we saw large dumps from Rugby Resources (RUG.v
18.2%) and Latin Metals (LMS.v down 13.0%) on the Watch List, while big percentage gains
came from AbraSilver (ABRA.v up 20.4%) and Orecap (OCI.v up 14.3%) and let’s sneak Rio2
(RIO.v up 9.5%) into the frame as well. However, the most notable gains for my money (take
that literally) came from the two larger producers we’ve recently added on trades and leverage
to gold in the near-ish term. Happy to see both Equinox (EQX up 6.6%) and Fortuna (FSM up
5.7%) respond well to market conditions.
There are 21 stocks in our table, one above the max and that drops to 20 next weekend as we
drop Latin Metals (LMS.v) frm the Watch List. Five of the stocks are in the green, the rest are in
the red.
10

company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.29 38.1% $0.75 first tgt, #1 idea
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Amerigo Res ARG.to STR BUY C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.46 7.4% Main Cu trade, top fundies
SolGold SOLG.to STR BUY C$0.265 19-Feb-23 C$0.245 -7.5% Cu in Ecuador, M&A tgt
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v BUY C$0.265 25-Apr-21 C$0.155 -41.5% delayed MRE now due end Q3
Equinox Gold EQX SPEC BUY U$4.46 30-May-23 U$4.85 8.7% Au leverage trade, trading well
Fortuna Silver FSM SPEC BUY U$2.92 13-Aug-23 U$2.98 2.1% New trade, want quick flip
Faraday Copper FDY.to BUY C$0.79 26-Mar-23 C$0.67 -15.2% USA based Cu exploreco
Contango Ore CTGO BUY U$18.70 30-Jul-23 U$18.39 -1.7% new purchase IKN741
AbraSilver Res. ABRA.v SPEC BUY C$0.36 4-Dec-22 C$0.325 -9.7% added for last time Mar'23
Newcore Gold NCAU.v SPEC BUY C$0.205 23-Oct-22 C$0.14 -31.7% Financing closed, bottom in
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v BUY C$0.83 22-Apr-18 C$0.23 -72.3% Cheap on permit probs, appeal
SPECULATIVE TRADES
Orecap inv OCI.v SPEC BUY C$0.04 20-Nov-22 C$0.04 0.0% corp revamp, new strategy
Western Explor. WEX.v SPEC BUY C$1.87 9-Apr-23 C$0.90 -51.9% Au spec in USA, started badly
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v SPEC BUY C$0.72 16-May-21 C$0.87 20.8% now in drill assay season
Minera IRL MIRL.cse avoid C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.02 -89.7% run into ground byCEO, AVOID
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
Marimaca Copper MARI.to WATCH C$3.65 26-May-23 C$3.97 8.8% Likely buy, want cheap entry
Latin Metals LMS.v DROPPING C$0.15 11-Sep-22 C$0.10 -33.3% Peru&Arg prospect generator
Surge Copper SURG.v WATCH C$0.11 18-Jun-23 C$0.10 -9.1% tinycap Cu in BC Canada
Libero Copper LBC.v WATCH C$0.065 2-Jul-23 C$0.04 -38.5% Watching for Arg drill permit
Rugby Resources RUG.v WATCH C$0.06 26-Mar-23 C$0.045 -25.0% tinycap Cu in Colombia
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.63 6-Dec-20 C$0.41 -34.9% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2023 date closed close price
Altiplano Metals APN.v jan'23 C$0.31 17-Sep-21 C$0.17 -45.2% delayed and will dilute soon
Western Copper WRN.to mar'23 C$2.02 13-Nov-22 C$2.32 14.9% sold on reduced M&A prob.
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v may'23 C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$1.75 -43.0% Closing on legal action news
Amerigo Res ARG.to may'23 C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.48 8.8% sold 20% to raise cash
2015 to 2022 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on a few of our covered companies:
Latin Metals (LMS.v): DROPPING FROM WATCH LIST. Thursday LMS announced (5) an
“… Update on Strategic Milestones and Investment for 2023” and while the information on
permit applications and so forth was fair enough, the main news was the company’s decision to
finance via taking out debt. That was something flagged to this desk by the company a few
weeks ago, but the terms of this deal and its structure is the single reason I’m dropping LMS
from the Watch List. Here’s the important bit of the NR:
“…the Company has secured loans totalling $600,000 (the "Loans"), subject to
acceptance by the TSX Venture Exchange. The Company places a high premium on
minimizing shareholder dilution, and its recent financing choices, including the Loans,
align with its mission to further its corporate goals while safeguarding investor
interests. The Loans have a one-year term and bear interest at the rate of 10% per
annum compounded annually, payable on the maturity date. The Company has
agreed to issue 6,000,000 non-transferable bonus common share purchase warrants
to the lenders, each of which warrants will entitle the holder to purchase one common
share of the Company for a period of one year at an exercise price of $0.10 per share.”
LMS then went on to explain that the funds would cover outstanding liabilities and for general
11

corporate and working capital purposes, which is understandable for an asset-rich-cash-poor
company that needs to monetize in some way or other. However, the issue is trying to
understand how, "The Company places a high premium on minimizing shareholder dilution” sits
with the emission of 6m bonus warrants with a 10c strike. Why take out debt and then add 6m
papers, with a strike price of 10c? I get that LMS needs cash in the near-term, but adding debt
to an exploreco with no top line revenues is
never a positive (or in the case of LMA, some
minor payments due but nowhere near enough
to cover the credit line). Even in a best-case
scenario where the warrants are exercised, those
gross proceeds only cover the principal and the
dilution still affects the shares out total. Even in
this tough market, it begs the question as to why
LMS didn’t even try to 6m-or-so shares in a
classic placement.
While understanding that market conditions
aren’t easy for the tinycaps, this deal strips too
much meat from the bone and leaves us
minnows, the retail investor, with lower upside and greater risk from a weakened balance
sheet, not to mention the implied ceiling from that warrants overhang placed at 10c. When it
comes to this type of company, risk comes as part of the equation and we should always go in
with eyes wide open, but if the potential reward is diluted (or as in this case, handed to insiders
and strategic investors to the detriment of retail) there’s not much point in insisting. We will of
course be open to returning to LMS if one or more of its exploration stage assets hits some sort
of pay dirt and brings new momentum, but for the time being there’s no reason to insist. Also,
of course, if those shady types at Libero Copper (LBC.v) ever get that elusive drill permit for La
Esperanza in Argentina, we’d be better off with a spec buy in the driller than the optioner.
Therefore and with the added desire to get the Stocks to Follow list back to its 20-name
maximum, Latin Metals is dropped and will not form part of the list as from next weekend, that
means any further commentary on the stock will happen in the TinyCaps section below. That’s
also a good thing, because we’ll be able to see whether my decision to turn my back on this
potential trade at its current 10c level turns out to be a bad call. Accountability is a good thing.
Minera Alamos (MAI.v): I am reliably informed that our Top Pick will file its 2q23 financials
and MD&A on Tuesday evening, with a cover NR release on Wednesday morning. As for the
contents, we’ve already noted that Q2 is set to be the last of the “quiet quarters” at Santana as
the operation has since enjoyed a better and more normal amount of rainfall and has ramped
up the headcount of personnel there as well. We should also look out for first news of the
expansion drilling program at this first mine, as well as scouring the MD&A for details and clues
on how the Cerro de Oro permitting track is going.
SolGold (SOLG.to): Though UNCH on the week, keep an eye on SOLG Canadian ticker next
week as in the same period between two very quiet Fridays, the main UK ticker for SOLG
managed to rally around 6%. The stock has gone back to sleep in the Canadian markets but it
got a reasonable rebound last week on the back of the Ecuador election result. Any further
positive trading in London should see SOLG Dot Tee Oh rebound sharply, what’s missing is
volume (less than 1,500 shares traded on Friday).
Minera IRL (MIRL.cse): With on eye on the ticker, it’s clear MIRL is being washed. All week
we saw 1,000 lot trades run every ten or eleven minutes, as regular as can be. As noted a
couple of weeks ago, as false as a seven dollar bill.
In other news, the locals around the Corihuarmi mine have taken their complaints against the
operation to the government, who have opened an environmental tribunal to investigate claims
of widespread pollution caused by the mine in the surrounding zone and in the river water
supplies. Locals are demanding that the company remains true to its word and the terms of the
12

deal brokered in October 2022 and file its closure plan.
Equinox Gold (EQX) and Fortuna Silver (FSM): I’M happy with the way both EQX and FSM
traded this week:
The ten-day chart shows that over the two week period both trades are nothing more than a
wash, but what we’re looking for with both is alpha to market on an improving gold price and
that’s what we see compared to GDX. Admittedly, neither selections did as well as Wesdome
(WDO.to) or Argonauit (AR.to) and we return to those soft-coverage stocks in ‘Market
Watching’ today (below), but that’s okay, my picks are lower risk. Horses for courses I suppose
and ultimately, I’m not here trying to tell you what you should do with your money, I’m here
telling you what I’m doing with mine.
AbraSilver (ABRA.v): And on the subject of
leverage (chart right) ABRA rebounded from its
miserable recent trading and jumped over 20% last
week on no new news. This puts the stock back at a
level that still looks wildly cheap compared to what
they have at Diablillos, at least to my eyes, butit’s a
3-handle again and we have to start somewhere.
Orecap Invest Corp (OCI.v): The good news, OCI
is up 14.3% week-over-week. The bad news is in the
chart (right) because indeed, nobody cares. OCI
traded a few on Monday and then its marked open
on Tuesday managed to stay the rest of the week, as
it was ignored by the whole of the western world’s
capitalists for four days.
This company needs to show reasons why its tiny
price represents a bargain with plenty of ways to
show a win, but until its relatively new management
team get out and start telling the story, it’s unlikely
to do much in the current drab market.
QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v): From the same ‘Ore
Group’ stable of companies as OCI (above,), QCCU
continues to tread water at this level that’s stayed in
place for a full year. Now remind readers that the delayed Mineral Resource Estimate is due
with us this quarter, which means next month. The most recent delay was a veritable pain in
the behind after being assured it would be done by end 2q23, but at least the company
management went on record and taped a YouTube discussion to explain the reasons for the
delay. Fair enough but in that video “Good Things Take Time”, link here (6) Vice President of
Exploration Charles Beaudry made every assuring noise possible that the extra quarter would
13

be worth it and that QCCU would deliver the elusive 43-101 report by the end of September.
As it has the potential to be a major catalyst for the company and the share price (plus it will
provide plenty of marketing material with which they can get out and spread the word, those of
you interested in the company and looking to speculate on the results of this promising
resource should consider moving in now, before the noise starts to mount.
Surge Copper (SURG.v): Considering that its drill
program at Berg started six weeks ago, the projected holes
aren’t the deepest and that at present, assay labs aren’t
reporting any backlogs or delays, we should start to keep
our eyes peeled for the first assay results from SURG
(though post-Labor Day is still more likely). In trading,
there was 9.5c available last week if you sat there on the
bid and waited for impatient sellers.
The Copper Basket
After thirty-four weeks of 2023, The Copper Basket shows a loss of 9.05% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Solaris Res SLS.to 6.44 146.599 841.48 5.74 -10.9%
2 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.22 92.882 368.74 3.97 23.3%
3 Western Copper WRN.to 2.41 151.597 310.77 2.05 -14.9%
4 Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to 1.92 105.96 174.83 1.65 -14.1%
5 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.78 172.551 150.12 0.87 11.5%
6 Hot Chili HCH.v 0.78 119.455 142.15 1.19 52.6%
7 Oroco Res OCO.v 0.91 216.13 140.48 0.65 -28.6%
8 Faraday Copper FDY.to 0.54 175.2 117.38 0.67 24.1%
9 Regulus Res. REG.v 1.10 124.509 107.08 0.86 -21.8%
10 Pan Global Res PGZ.v 0.46 212.145 61.52 0.29 -37.0%
11 Kodiak Copper KDK.v 1.12 56.2 39.90 0.71 -36.6%
12 QC Copper QCCU.v 0.165 162.815 25.24 0.155 -6.1%
13 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.16 86.966 15.22 0.175 9.4%
14 Libero Copper LBC.v 0.155 119.58 4.78 0.04 -74.2%
15 Atacama Copper ACOP.v 0.16 35.94 5.03 0.14 -12.5%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg -9.05%
The Copper Basket average lost about half a percentage point on the week, hardly a disaster
but it also means the basket has hit a new 2023
low, down 9.05%. The balance of our 15 The Copper Basket 2023, weekly evolution
12%
component stocks was slightly negative as you’d 10%
expect, with six winners on the week (SLS.to, 8%
6%
WRN.to, MARI.to, ASCU.to, REG.v, ECU.v), seven 4%
losers (OCO.v, ALDE.v, PGZ.v, FDY.to, KDK.v, 2%
0%
QCCU.v, ACOP.v) and two remaining unchanged -2%
(HCH.v, LBC.v). notably, there were no big losses -4%
-6%
or gains and no double figure percentage moves -8%
-10%
in either direction, the biggest move being the
8.6% added by Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.to) and
event that was mostly about a rebound from its
drop the week before last.
14
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2yluj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6gua ht31 ht02 ht72
source: IKN calcs

We go with a ten-day copper chart this week (we’re now using the Comex December contract,
HGZ23, as our benchmark as the September
contract becomes due) and it shows the
decent rally put in by the metal from this
time last week. As for the comments in red,
please re-read IKN744 and the Google
screenshot that appeared in the Copper
Basket section. In the same vein, our
curated market comments this week are
chosen as a reminder to filter out the day-to-
day noise and keep one’s eyes on the prize.
Reuters does the honours (7):
Copper prices in London were on track to
end a run of three weekly declines on
Friday, boosted by a potential demand
uplift from support for China’s yuan
currency and seasonal strength in consumption.
And…
The metal used widely in the power and construction sectors is up 2.4% this week, with
gains partly fuelled by short-covering by computer-driven funds. Traders and investors
are now shifting their focus to September and October, traditionally strong
consumption months for copper in China.
Compare that to the ChinaFears! headlines and commentary we read in the first weeks of
August and as commented upon last weekend. According to the media script, we’ve suddenly
jumped from China collapse, a 40 year boom that’s over and Xi “running China’s economy cold
on purpose” to a rebounding market with government stimulus and good seasonal factors for
demand. In other words, do yourself a big favour and look beyond the inane blather of the
news cycle. As time goes on it becomes increasingly clear to this desk that the morons (no
other word) compiling this bizwire junk check the market prices and then wonder how they can
explain it to their audience, constantly looking back 12 hours and projecting anything they
gather into the future.
Now for our regular weekly review of copper inventories with data supplied by Chile’s Cochilco,
which may be the last quiet summer week of the year.
 The aggregate of the three official futures systems added a modest 1,924 metric
tonnes (mt) to close at 170,949mt.
 The Shanghai SHFE added 1,357mt to close at 40,585mt and we saw no rebound from
the new “scrape the barrel” level reached the lasst before last.
 The LME added 5,325mt to its stocks, but tellingly 4,675mt want to New Orleans. That
means over a third of the 97,525mt total LME inventory this weekend is held at its
Roach Motel. And keep that in mind when reading the third and last bullet because…
 Comex stocks dropped 4,758mt to close at 32,839mt and if that’s not a lumpy arbitrage
from one warehouse to another, I don’t know what is.
The same SHFE tracking chart as last week as the Doldrums period continues and the 2023
squiggly line traces along the path set in 2022. We’re looking for change and until we get some,
no reason to expect new fireworks in the copper space.
SHFE copper inventory levels, 2018 to 2023
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
15 100000
50000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
MT Cu 2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
source: Cochilco data

Let’s also make a point of the LME cancelled warrants tracking chart this week, as the lack of
activity on the right of this visual is another big tell on the inertia of today’s market, a sentiment
echoed by the inimitable Andy Home in his base metals column this week (8) which ended this
way:
The recent accumulation of both short and long positions suggests funds are
positioning themselves ahead of some sort of break-out from the recent trading range.
It's just that there is no consensus as to whether the copper price will break upwards or
downwards.
Which is more important? Old cycle or new cycle?
China's property woes are piling up with developer Country Garden in financial
difficulty and missed payments on investment products by Zhongrong International
Trust Co highlighting the risk of contagion to China's $3 trillion shadow banking sector.
The bullish counterpoint comes in the form of rising copper usage in energy transition
applications as both the United States and Europe turbo-charge electric vehicle sales
and the renewable energy network needed to support the pivot away from fossil fuels.
Doctor Copper appears undecided as to which super-cycle is currently strongest.
Fund managers are too.
Agreed. Now for notes on a couple of basket stocks.
Western Copper & Gold (WRN.to) (WRN): Up 6.8% and above the two Loonie line again,
WRN last week announced (9) a seven hole drill program for Casino for around 2,200m total,
that together are “…expected to result in upgrading
of some of the Indicated Resource to the Measured
Resource category.” The program was decided upon
by the Technical and Sustainability Committee, which
includes personnel from WRN as well as its two
strategic backers, Rio Tinto (RTZ) and Mitsubishi.
WRN puit some spin on this and CEO West-Sells
called it the “…first drill program developed by our
new combined Technical and Sustainability
Committee”, which makes it sound innovate and new
when the only real difference is the addition of the
Mitsubishi people into the mix, as RTZ was already
running the committee before the new partner
arrived. In fact, I’d be very surprised to hear that
RTZ had relinquished executive control of the committee. Anyway, the NR was enough to drag
WRN shares out of their recent funk.
Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.to): On Wednesday ASCU announced (and let’s do it the easy way
by quoting the NR (10)) “…it will host a live VID Town Hall Forum on Wednesday September 6
at 11:00 am EDT (8:00 am PDT).” The link to register is here (11) (I’ve used it already,
hopefully you will too) and on the day, we’ll get
CEO George Ogilvie and CFO Nick Nikolakakis giving
a corporate update, listing near-term catalysts and
framing the upcoming PFS slated for 1q24, with live
Q&A to follow.
It’s not as if ASCU has been an unmitigated disaster
in 2023, but it came into the year with a lot of
positive vibes and momentum and hasn’t managed
to follow through on its promise. The 12 month
chart shows how things were good until January or
so but for the last six months the stock hasn’t kept
pace with the median, as seen by COPX (right). It
managed to bounce back from new 2023 lows last
weekend when a little buying interest showed up on Wednesday, but the lack of momentum
and drop off in volume is clear, so we await the Town Hall meeting to see if the team can inject
a little new interest.
16

Oroco Resources (OCO.v): Due to the boredom around the lack of news coming out of
copper juniors, last week I forgot to mention the only fundies change on the list as on August
15th, OCO announced the closure of a previously unannounced private placement (12), selling
2,692,308 units at $0.65 apiece (unit = share + full warrant priced at 90c with a two year shelf
life). That raises $1.75m and is enough to keep the background burn paid as the company
moves to complete and publish its PEA later this year. The assumption is that it will look to
finance again once the PEA is out.
All the hype has now been well and truly beaten out of this stock and the fact it had to include
a full warrant at 90c to appease backers is its own indication of the current buyer’s market for
mining equities. Such “surprise”
placements are normally allocated to
OCO.v: Shares Out
instos and HNWs with established equity
positions. That puts the overall share
count at 216.13m and as this chart (right)
shows, we need to be fair to OCO on this
score as it has managed to keep a
reasonable lid on share dilution since the
Covid Quarter. The count hit 186.5m in
February 2021, which means that even
with the latest raising they’ve only added
another 30m shares in the last 10
quarters. That’s far from abusive and
shows that behind the YouTube-powered
hype that pushed the price over C$3.50 in mid-2021, there’s a serious team doing serious work.
Santo Tomas has its pros and cons as a project, just like any other large mineral deposit. Its
location is good, the grade while a little on the low side is shown to be economics by nearby
working mines, I don’t like the whole “River Issue” and how it might crimp the mine plan, let
alone the permitting and environmental issues it might entail. So there are difficulties but
there’s no single project killer, either. We look forward to the PEA and see what they come up
with, at which point OCO may reveal itself to be a true bargain instead of a theoretical one. But
one thing’s for sure, its definitely more attractive at a market cap of C$140m than it was at
C$600m and above, two years ago.
The Producer Basket
After 34 weeks of 2023, the Producer Basket shows a loss of 1.79% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 47.20 799 30.61 38.31 -18.8%
2 Barrick GOLD 17.18 1761.54 28.03 15.91 -7.4%
3 Agnico Eagle AEM 51.99 488.9 23.13 47.31 -9.0%
4 Wheaton PM WPM 39.08 451.963 19.01 42.07 7.7%
5 Kinross Gold KGC 4.09 1256.1 6.04 4.81 17.6%
6 Alamos Gold AGI 10.11 393.1 4.75 12.09 19.6%
7 B2Gold BTG 3.57 1074.567 3.27 3.04 -14.8%
8 Hecla Mining GFI 5.56 610.491 2.63 4.31 -22.5%
9 Eldorado Gold EGO 8.36 185.73 1.66 8.94 6.9%
10 Wesdome Gold WDOFF 5.53 147.526 0.84 5.69 2.9%
All prices and stock quotes in U$ Port. avg -1.79%
The GDX benchmark rose 3.4% and our Producer Basket did the same, give or take a couple of
hundredths, with just one losing stock on the week spoiling the show as Hecla (HL down 5.9%)
17
4.39 6.39 5.79 9.99
6.401 1.501
4.741 1.751 1.271 5.681 1.981 5.191 3.391 4.391 9.402 9.502 0.702 0.702 4.312 1.612
250
225
200
175
150
125 100
75
50
25
0
81.von 91.bef 91.yam 91.gua 91.von 02.bef 02.yam 02.gua 02.von 12.bef 12.yam 12.gua 12.von 22.bef 22.yam 22.gua 22.von 32.bef 32.yam 32.gua
source: company filings
serahs
fo snoillim

announced some bad news to the market. As for the winning nine, they were led by Wesdome
(WDOFF up 12.7%) and the serially successful Alamos (AGI up 9.5%)
The 2023 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
comparative to GDX control
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
Hecla Mining (HL): The HL stock price dumped on Monday and then Tuesday on ness from
its Lucky Friday mine in Idaho USA, its longest running asset (13):
COEUR D'ALENE, Idaho--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Hecla Mining Company (NYSE:HL) announced
an update on the Lucky Friday mine. A fall of ground occurred in the mine’s #2 shaft, a secondary
egress, at an unused station that was under repair. While a full inspection has not occurred, the
failure appears to be caused by a fire that is contained and under control. Steps are being taken
to ensure the fire is extinguished before normal ventilation is re-established. No personnel were in
the mine at the time of the failure. The Mine Safety and Health Administration (“MSHA”) was
notified.
The incident occurred approximately 500 feet from the bottom of the active portion of the shaft
and is expected to impact production and cost guidance for the mine. The Company is working on
a plan to resume production and will update 2023 guidance once the plan is developed.
Lucky Friday is old, deep and as such not the cheapest of mines to run, but it’s also important
to HL because in recent quarters it has made up around 35% of silver sales, 66% of lead (Pb)
sales and 22% of zinc sales at the company on a
consolidated basis. Luck Friday also produces a
high quality lead-silver concentrate, sought-after
by smelters and commands a market premium. As
for NAV, it currently covers around 19% of total
assets and 21% of its mine fixed assets.
Consequently, the hit it took to the share price at
the start of the week is understandable (right).
Though the stock rebounded along with the
market on Wednesday and that’s a good sign, that
must just be uninformed speculation that things
aren’t so bad underground when they might be
bad, or even worse. So market vibes can do their
thing but in reality, we don’t know how serious the damage is to Lucky Friday yet or how long it
might be partially or fully offline and HL, the type of old-school set-up that tries to keep bad
news away from the market, isn’t likely to tell us until it had to. With Q2 sales already showing
slippage from the previous two quarters, any prolonged stoppage at Lucky Friday due to H&S
reasons or merely due to the lack of stope access could become a significant problem from
3q23 production numbers and, as our sales and margin tracker charts show, even losing a
portion of overall silver sales could see the company’s 3q23 emulate the financial pain it went
through in 2q22.
18
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2yluj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6gua ht31 ht02 ht72
The 2023 Producer Basket: Percentage difference
between GDX benchmark & basket (negative = IKN ahead)
4.0%
ikn 3.5%
gdx control 3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
source: NYSE, IKN calcs ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2yluj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6gua ht31 ht02 ht72
source: IKN calcs, NYSE data

U$m HL: Gross sales by metal
silver gold base
240
220
200 40.1 45.1 52.3
180 46.1 48.4 52.5 54.7 58.3
33.9 55.0 55.2 47.6
160
140 23.7 86.1 44.1
98.5 101.4
120 77.8 70.4 75.1
100 89.2 95.0 79.6 77.2 82.0 62.9
80 90.7 69.3
60
40 61.8 79.7 81.2 77.8 92.8 61.9 61.2 66.3 70.1 82.7 81.5 79.5
20 37.6 45.9
0
1q20 2q20 3q20 4q20 1q21 2q21 3q21 4q21 1q22 2q22 3q22 4q22 1q23 2q23
source: company filings
U$m HL: Gross margin, income from ops, net profit
gross profit
80
income from ops
70 pre tax income
60 net income
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40 source: company filings
1q20 2q20 3q20 4q20 1q21 2q21 3q21 4q21 1q22 2q22 3q22 4q22 1q23
The TinyCaps List
After 34 weeks of 2023, the TinyCaps show a gain of 19.05% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Aurelius Min AUL.v 0.07 49.787 1.00 0.02 -71.4%
Coast Copper COCO.v 0.045 64.001 3.52 0.055 22.2%
District Metals DMX.v 0.075 86.891 15.64 0.18 140.0%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.13 69.962 7.00 0.10 -23.1%
Manitou Gold MTU.v 0.02 344.568 18.95 0.055 175.0%
Nine Mile Metals NINE.cse 0.29 57.025 5.70 0.10 -65.5%
Palamina Corp PA.v 0.08 65.285 7.83 0.12 50.0%
Precipitate Gold PRG.v 0.075 130.367 8.47 0.065 -13.3%
South Star STS.v 0.55 40.129 20.06 0.50 -9.1%
Viva Gold VAU.v 0.14 106.721 12.81 0.12 -14.3%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 19.05%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $20m. They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a
little and allowed sub-U$20m market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, but it was a particularly depressing exercise to trawl through the whole of the TSXV and find companies
that are small enough, but with life in them. The vast majority of sub-$20m stocks are broken stocks, either
19

traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2023. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
The TinyCaps added a few percent back to the average
as it bounces around the +10% to +20% level we’ve TinyCaps, 2023 weekly tracker
50%
seen since May. Four of our ten were winners on the 45%
40%
week (COCO.v, DMX.v, NINE.cse, VAU.v) and those
35%
include two big percentage upmoves in Coast Copper 30%
25%
(COCO.v up 37.5%) and District Metals (DMX.v up
20%
24.1%). Three stocks were losers (LMS.v, PA.v, STS.v) 15%
10%
5%
Coast Copper (COCO.v): After months of price 0%
deterioration and very little news, COCO sprang to life
on Monday with this NR (14) entitled “Coast Copper
Makes New High-Grade Gold Discovery at Empire Mine
Property”, that shot it as high as 8c and a 100% intraday gain, before trading at 7c and then
coming back to 5.5c on Tuesday, which is the price it ended the week. It was a sudden rush of
buying with no follow-through on subsequent days, which is a clue to the validity of the move
and the news content. As for those details, the COCO “discovery” turned out to be rock chip
and soil samples from various parts of its Empire Mine project on Vancouver Island, BC CA. I’m
not pasting any of the results tables here, so feel free
to take a look at the chip sample numbers, soil sample
results etc in the NR if you so desire. There are some
40 g/t Au and 50 g/t gold assay results and while they
look good and are splashy, it’s not a big surprise to
get that sort of return from somewhere at this
historical working mine, what with it having been a
high grade vein mine in its time.
If you ask me, COCO was bid up by somebody who
saw the rock chip numbers and then got breathless
and loud somewhere on social media, thereby creating
a rapid buying spree among people who believed/fell
for the line and before anyone could draw breath, 600k shares had changed hands for a cash
sum of around $40k or so.
It’s probably not a coincidence that the NR was followed just two days later by the cOCIO.v
2q23 financials filing, which revealed it had just 85k in cash left in the treasury as at June 30th.
It’s not in bad financial shape overall, as on that date it was still owed C$2m from Skeena
Resources (SKE.v), but there’s a clear lack of liquidity as the Skeena payments come in stages
of C$0.5m every six months. Last payment was April, the next instalment for its sale of its Red
Chris properties comes in October and is $250k in cash and $250k in SKE shares. That’s almost
enough to get COCO to the end of the year if it’s not drilling 8and assuming it sells all the SKE
shares, but the June 30th cash position means that the company is already running on fumes
and the receipt date is still a ways off. If COCO suddenly and coincidentally decides to run a
placement on the back of last week’s rock and soild sample NR and just a couple of days after
filing its Q2, it wouldn’t come as a shock to this desk. I won’t be partaking in the PP, though.
District Metals (DMX.v): The other big mover of the week was DMX, which popped and
stayed higher due to this news that hit the trade wires on Tuesday (15):
Sweden to lift ban on uranium mining
Sweden’s Climate Minister, Romina Pourmokhtari, has unveiled plans to lift the
nation’s ban on uranium mining, thereby paving the way for an expanded nuclear
energy capacity.
20
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2yluj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6gua ht31 ht02 ht72
source: IKN calcs, TSX data

Earlier this year DMX rallied on talk that Sweden’s moratorium on uranium exploration and/or
mining would be lifted, only to see the law project defeated (by quite a distance in the country’s
parliament. This time the initiative is coming from the relevant government ministry and with an
apparent new perspective on the activity, as Sweden wants to build its new energy generation
system around nuclear and (according to the same article above) holds around 80% of Europe’s
uranium deposits. We didn’t get a NR from DMX on this development, but CEO Garrett
Ainsworth did provide a quote for trade press saying (16):
"We are very pleased with the recent media reports out of Sweden that a majority by
the newly formed government has reached a consensus to remove the moratorium on
uranium mining.”
“The implications related to this decision are potentially transformational for District
Metals given our recent mineral license application of Viken nr 101, which covers most
of the vanadium-uranium-molybdenum-nickel-copper-zinc Viken Deposit in Sweden.”
I’m no expert (at all) on Swedish politics and not going
to pretend otherwise, but the fact this is a government
sponsored bill and not a private member’s bill gives it
more weight and the chances this will be passed are
high. However, this is Sweden and things tend to take
a lot of time. There’s also the question of DMX’s
specific U project zone, close to a picturesque lake
that has an extra layer of environmental issues to
contend with. However, the speculation is clearly back
on and that means these pennycrappers can run
quickly if things go well. I’ll just watch, but wish them
success.
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future
I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
Considering the Ecuador presidential election results
First let’s start with what’s still not the official result, as there’s a little minor level spat over the
way the overseas voting happened and there may be some legal appeals to do. However,
things won’t change by more than a couple of hundredths either way, whatever happens;
 Luisa González 33.63%
 Daniel Noboa: 23.42%
 Christian Zurita: 16.44%
 Jan Topic: 14.66%
 Otto Sonnenholzner 7.06%
 Yaku Pérez: 3.95%
So in October 15th the presidency until 2025 will be decided between Luisa González of Rafael
Correa Citizen’s Revolution party and Daniel Noboa, son of the extremely rich businessman
Álvaro Noboa. The former was expected to top the first round and did so at the high end of her
range, getting over 33% of the popular vote. Meanwhile Noboa was a surprise who zoomed
through the field in the last week due to three main influences: 1) A good performance in the
national televised live debate on August 13th, 2) an organized campaign that targeted the final
week as its most intensive and 3) a very expensive late advertising campaign, with Ecuador
political watchers estimating that he spent upwards of U$1m on TV, radio and online social
media adverts in the days between the live debate and the vote. It was the winning formula.
As for the candidate, Daniel fils is 35 years old and doesn’t hide his high society image, or the
fact that he’s trying to make good the dreams of his father (who is founder and head of the
PSC party and ran unsuccessfully for President no fewer than six times. Unsurprisingly
21

considering his background, Daniel Noboa’s his politics are orthodox right wing for the most
part but he’s viewed as a moderate in Ecuador and carefully nurtures that image. For example,
in last week’s regional referendum he also voted in favour of stopping production at the Yasuni
oil field, which turned out to be the winning result. programmed and our first job is to try and
work out how the run-off goes.
Now for what’s in store between now and October 15th: The scenario has become somewhat
similar to that of 2021, when second placed Guillermo Lasso beat the Rafael Correa Citizen’s
Revolution party candidate that time, Andrés Arauz (Luisa’s Veep on this year’s ticket) in the
run-off. We again have a right wing candidate who is likely to collect the “Never Correa” votes
together and there’s no doubt at all that he’ll pick up all the Jan Topic voters and most of the
Sonnenholzner voters, too. The main incognito is how those who voted for Christian Zurita, the
journalist who took over the “Constuye” ticket from the murdered Fernando Villavicencio, will
split. Zurita himself makes it clear that he will never support what he calls the mafia of Rafael
Correa, however he also has his doubts about the Noboa camp (which ironically has plenty of
backroom connection with Rafael Correa and his party) and has declared himself neutral for
round two. However, he’s also made it clear that his party will support eventual alliances for
“constructive legislation” in Ecuador’s Assembly (parliament) and that’s a big wink toward
Daniel Noboa. However, his electorate may not transfer wholesale to Noboa for the second
round run-off and at this stage, while the basic math seems to favour Noboa there’s no obvious
path to 50% +1 vote for either candidate.
The other incognito at this time, one that we’ve mentioned sans cesse on these pages over the
last few weeks, is the position that CONAIE and its head. Leonidas Iza, takes. Though Iza and
Correa have never met and Correa in fact tried to imprison Iza while President (and did so to
several of his colleagues), there’s still the potential for a deal or pact between Luisa
González/Citizen’s Revolution and CONAIE. She know she needs votes and CONAIE has its own
agenda of political points to promote, which of course include its clear anti-mining position. So
far it’s been radio silence from CONAIE since the round one result, but we also know Leonidas
Iza is politically astute, so if a deal is struck on enough policy points agreeable to CONAIE, it
may be enough to tip the balance away from Noboa and toward González. On this score, it’s
worth noting that the Noboa family are investors in the contentious Curipamba/El Domo project
owned by Adventus and Salazar Resources, via their investment arm Nobis. That fact could
work against Daniel Noboa and his image in the rural communities in the weeks ahead.
We now move to things we know, i.e. the result and make-up of the Congress also voted in on
August 20th.Though the exact number of seats is yet to be confirmed (those doubts surrounding
the overseas votes may change the seat make-up, due to the proportional representation
system used) this is a preliminary breakdown of Ecuador’s 137 seat Assembly (i.e. Congress)
for the period that remains, from now to end of 2025
 Revolución Ciudadano (Citizen’s Revolution) (Candidate Luisa González): 51
 Construye (Candidate Fernando Villavicencio RIP): 31
 Partido Social Cristiano (PSC): (No official candidate, aligned with Jan Topic): 14
 Acción Democrática Nacional (ADN) (Candidate Daniel Noboa): 13
 Actuemos (Candidate Otto Sonnenholzner): 8
 Pachakutik (No official candidate, aligned with Yaku Pérez): 4
 Sociedad Patriotica (No official candidate, aligned with Yaku Pérez): 4
 Claro que se puede (Candidate Yaku Pérez): 3
 RETO (Candidate Xavier Hervas): 2
 Other independents: 7
The Luisa González/Rafael Correa/Citizen’s Revolution paerty has the biggest share of seats
with 51. That’s around 37% of total seats and means no clear majority. However and notably,
the likely alliance that forms around Daniel Noboa doesn’t make it to the the magic 69 seats
and an automatic majority, either. If we add together the seats from Construye, PSC, ADN and
Actuemos we get to 66 seats and even if we add the 2 gained by the disappointing result from
Xavier Hervas’s RETO party that only makes it to 68. Finally (for our purposes), ecology-type
22

candidate Yaku Pérez didn’t get the same traction he got in 2021 when he was the official
Pachakutik party candidate and backed by CONAIE, but parties that aligned with his campaign
(including his own) still managed to gain a total of 15 seats. That’s an interesting minority, as
its bloc may be the difference between any given law getting passage or failing.
Bottom line: I’ve seen people on social media running the basic numbers and totting up the
percentages gained in round one, then coming to the conclusion that Noboa is a hot favourite
for the run-off. I’m nowhere near as confident as that, in fact and as things stand I’d call this
election a toss-up between the two candidates. Theoretically Noboa has the math on his side
and also the precedent, as this is how Guillermo Lasso sailed past his own Rafael Correa backed
candidate in 2021 to win the presidency, but there’s a lot of “floating vote” in Ecuador that does
not necessarily run by political ideology so, for example, those that voted for Jan Topic (hard
right) or Yaku Pérez (very anti-Correa) in Round One are not guaranteed to be in the Noboa
column by any means. Meanwhile, Luisa González may have alliances to make that couldn’t be
done before and we should also note that by polling 33% in Round One, she came in at the
very top of her predicted range which shows relative popularity for her candidacy and image.
Also, the “Not Correa” sentiment of 2021 has diluted with time, something we saw in the
municipal and regional elections in March (that helped hasten the end of the Lasso mandate) so
she’s highly likely to poll above the 40% of “hard Correa” support that the last two candidates
for President obtained. Finally, don’t discount Ecuador as a nation reflecting on the way it chose
the “Not Correa” candidate in 2021 in Lasso, only to bring in two years of turmoil and pitifully
poor government under his leadership.
Finally, the consequences for the mining sector in this election and its outcome aren’t clear, but
we can say with some confidence that even if the playing field doesn’t change in the next seven
weeks and alliances made, the market will applaud a Noboa win and the mining companies will
rally hard, simply because of his orthodox right wing pro-business, pro-investment political
stance. Therefore, some of that risk will be baked into prices as we approach October 15th and
an eventual Luisa win would be a market negative the next day. However, that split may
become turbocharged if Luisa moves away from her party’s nominal pro-mining stance and
courts the country with the type of policy that was clearly popular in both the Yasuni and Chocó
Andino zones (see below). Be clear, candidates will understand that a loud and clear antio-
mining stance, for example calling for the type of moratorium demanded by CONAIE, would be
a net vote winner nationally. Therein lies the risk of this second round vote and it’s why I much
prefer to sit on the fence through September, rather than blithely totting up the result
percentages from last weekend and assuming Noboa wins easily. There’s plenty of election left
to campaign in Ecuador and in real terms, it’s a brand new campaign from now and both
candidates are starting from zero.
Ecuador: The Chocó Andino and Yasuni referendum results
Aside form the national candidate votes, Ecuador last Sunday saw the two regional referendums
around extractive industries go against the business world and for the environmental
campaigners in each zone. We’ve gone over the background of the referenda before, here we
cut to the chase and the results:
 The Yasuni vote, by 58% to 41%, means that the oil production of around 43,000 barrels
per day from the Yasuni block will cease. There was a brief moment of scandal and
outcry last week when one government minister said, the government wouldn’t recognize
the referendum result, but he was contradicted quickly before too much protest could
start and the government has said it will respect the result of the vote.
 Meanwhile, all four questions posed to residents of the Chocó Andino region finishes with
a 68% to 31% result in favour of stopping all mining concessions and activity in the
region, a vote that will also be respected by the national government. As mentioned on
many occasions, this result doesn’t affect any major concession or project, but the
symbolism is a strong negative for the mining sector in the country, as it shows how
concerted regional efforts can ban mining no matter what the national government does.
It also sets a precedent and pathway for other regions to run their own referendums.
23

The mining sector in Ecuador has been on damage limitation duty all week, with The Ecuador
Chamber of Mining (CAEM) making “it’s not fair” statements to any media channel that will
listen. For example this report, in which CAEM María Eulalia Silva said the following of the
things the anti-mining campaigners claimed in the run-up to the vote via this report (17):
“Not only are they inexact statement, they are also devious and I believe them to be
dangerous in the near-term and medium-term. It isn’t possible to compare legal mining
with illegal mining, they cannot (possibly) say they are the same thing. This is
outrageous and what’s more, it could generate schisms in the social fabric in the near-
term and medium-term.” According to Ms. Silva, one cannot say that all mining in
Ecuador is illegal simply because the mines in question have not run a prior
consultancy hearing (with their local communities).
On a personal note, I’m not a supporter of the anti-mining cause (for obvious reasons, this
publication would not exist otherwise) but on the other hand, I’ve watched enough of the way
some mining companies and their executives go about their job to know that they have caused
far more “schisms in the social fabric” of local communities than any vote to ban mining will
ever achieve. In the case of Chocó Andino, the local anti-mining (or environmental, if you
prefer) brigades had to fight tooth and nail to get the State to recognize their right to the
referendum as per the country’s constitution and it must be quite a shock to the business
community in Ecuador to witness the fruits of emancipation. Frankly, the arrogant and high-
handed way in which Ecuador’s business (i.e. ruling) class have reaped what they have sowed
on this issue and perhaps it’s for the better, as they may learn to treat local communities with
the respect they deserve in the future.
Colombia: The National Mining Agency does a roadshow
This week saw Colombia’s main state mining body, the Agencia Nacional de Minería (National
Mining Agency or ANM), start a roadshow to explain and roll it’s the government’s mining policy
and plans for the sector. The first stop was the main city in Colombia’s most important mining
region, Medellín in Antioquia and the keynote presentation was done by ANM head Álvaro
Pardo. The government was keen to promote this part of Pardo’s talk and this sound bite made
its social media channels (18) (translated):
“It’s never entered our heads to finish with the mining sector. It’s a fundamental sector
in the Government Plan, but we have to establish a new relationship with mining, one
that goes hand in hand with the respect for environmental preservation.”
However, the business press saw through the spin, this being a typical headline on the event
from Valor Analitik (19) (translated):
“ANM Colombia: No More Open Pit Mining Contracts Will Be Granted”
This headline extends the position Álvaro Pardo announced last December, when he said that
Colombia wouldn’t allow any more open pit coal mining. But this time his words cover all types
of mining and while the decision was cushioned by talk about how the Petro government was
looking to develop mining as a part of a value add chain and how royalties collected by the
State this year were well ahead of forecasts, the mining world was under no illusions about the
anti-mining message at the centre of the event. Also, while Pardo said that “All current
contracts would be honoured” (a standard line also used by the Mining Ministry), there was no
definition on what “current contracts” might mean as the government could easily take the
position of refusing to permit an open pit mining project with its concession contracts in order.
For one example of many, the B2Gold Gramalote gold project has its concessions in good
standing, but what happens when BTG tries to get its EIA through?
Argentina: The first polls after the PASO
Last week saw the first post-PASO voter intention surveys taken on the Argentina election and
while there are four out there to consider, we’re going with the well-reputed CB Consultores
and its poll, who questioned 4,340 people between August 14th and 16th in a poll with a margin
of error of +/- 1.5% and a confidence level of 95% (20) (as well as mentioning a “quiet poll”
that had a lot of people talking in Buenos Aires). But first the official CB poll and the main
takeaway is the new forecast Round One of the election, the vote happening in October:
24

 Javier Milei: 32.3%
 Sergio Massa: 28.1%
 Patricia Bullrich: 25.3%
We omit the numbers from the minor candidates as the race is between the big three:
 Milei's forecast 32.3% compares to the 30.04% in the PASO which suggests positive
momentum in the days since his success.
 Then comes the government candidate Sergio Massa, who also apparently improved
from the 27.27% he got in the PASO vote two weekends ago.
 Finally, the orthodox right wing candidate will be Patricia Bullrich, who beat out her
party rival Horacio Larreta in the PASO vote. She's currently forecast at 25.3% by this
poll, some three points lower than the aggregate of hers and Larreta’s vote total.
That poll result looks a little strange at first, but the devil’s in the details and the best insight is
provided by this table from the poll publication. Explanations below:
Horizontally along the top are the votes cast by those surveyed, then the left column shows the
preference those surveyed have in the upcoming big vote in October. For example, 91.7% of
those who voted for Javier Milei in the PASO intend to vote for the same candidate in the man
election. Or for another example, 77.4% of those who voted for Sergio Massa’s rival in the
PASO, Juan Grabois, will vote for Sergio Massa in the upcoming election.
Take a while to consider the percentages offered, but as you can see I’ve circled a couple of
the stats in red because they seem to hold the key to the differences between the PASO and
the current intention. Firstly, even though they are from the same party only 73.3% of the
people who voted for Horacio Larreta intend to vote for Patricia Bullrich, while 9.4% are
forecast to leak to Javier Milei and 8.8% to Sergio Massa. That’s an interesting result, because
it shows votes leaking away from the official Mauricio Macri party candidate for other reasons
than straight politics. The other important zone is the “En Blanco/No voté” column, which
surveys those who didn’t vote in the PASO. Of those, a full 31.4% say they will now vote for
Javier Milei, with 14.1% saying they’ll chose Sergio Massa and 19.1% for Bullrich. In other
words, the low turnout in the PASO (just 69% of the population voted, while 75% to 80% is
normal on the big day) will probably favour Javier Milei.
Before wrapping up, we’ll allow a word on a poll result that found space in Argentina’s biggest
national daily, the right wing Clarín that traditionally supports anything Mauricio Macri does but
has recently been warming to the idea of Javier Milei. Clarín published results (21) from an un-
named entity, only stating it was “private survey taken by a well-known consultancy firm with
decades of experience in the Argentina market.” All rather cryptic, but the survey forecast Milei
getting an impressive 38.6% in round one, followed by Sergio Massa on 31.9% who would join
him in the second round run-off and leave a poorly polling Patricia Bullrich on just 19.6% and
firmly in third place. The reason this poll made waves is that if Milei gets any further
momentum he may even win the election in round one (40% and at least 10% ahead of second
place) and that would improve his mandate power considerably.
25

Bottom line: If his PASO result weren’t enough, the way the chips are falling post-vote is
favouring Javier Milei even further. As noted in the last two editions, this desk’s first reaction
was to assume the fight will be between Milei and the orthodox right wing candidate Patricia
Bullrich, but Argentines are now showing enough “antibodies” (local expression translated
literally) against her and her political style. In fact she’s been on the political scene since the
Menem years (I remember her from my Buenos Aires years, 1997-2002) and has a bit of a
love-me-or-hate-me image. As for Milei, despite the swashbuckling outsider image that’s made
national headlines for a couple of years and has been making the international rounds since the
PASO result there’s a large swathe of Argentines that don’t like him and his style at all and will
look for an alternative come October and, more importantly, in the November run-off. For that,
a lot depends on who comes second and if it’s Massa (as predicted above), Milei will have an
easier job of convincing the country to make a change away from the current admin and the
high inflation is has brought. Milei’s job would be tougher against Bullrich. Therefore, if Bullrich
can’t hold on to enough voters in round one and finishes third, the dynamic will change and
Milei would than be a virtual lock to be the next President. At that point we’ll be in “careful what
you wish for” territory for the country as I’ll leave this note on The Basket Case Country to beat
them all with an on-the-record statement: Javier Milei is seriously bad news and sooner or later,
Argentina will regret rolling the dice and letting him have the keys to power. This guy isn’t your
ordinary lying snake of a politico, he’s a lot worse than that.
Market Watching
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v) 2q23 financials
We did the background numbers update on a couple of covered stocks last week and in the
same style as Western Exploration (WEX.v), today we catch up and consider the somewhat
inconsequential 2q23 filings from Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v) (dropped on zero fanfare last week) as we
await the real catalyst news from the company. In the case of RIO.v it’s the appeal on their
permit for the Fenix gold project in the high country of Chile, but while we wait…and wait…and
wait for the Chilean “Committee of Ministers to convene the appeals meeting and come to a
decision, we can at least check to see how the company has adapted financially to this
prolonged period of mothballing (or “forced care & maintenance, if you like).
For this we mostly care about the balance sheet overview charts so there are four of those
(nothing particularly complicated), then a look at how the cash burn is running on a quarterly
basis and then the share count, as in 2023 RIO.v has paid many of its officers with a combo of
shares and cash, in order to keep burn rate down. That’ll be enough for today, as RIO.v will
only get financially complex once Fenix is back up and being built out.
Assets and liabilities look like this, with the only meaningful change since the fateful 2q22
quarter in the fluctuation of treasury. The end of 2022 was expensive on the G&A side as the
company had to lay off many of its full-time staff (up to and including C-suite level) and pay
due redundancies. It also had to hire its legal team to fight its corner in the appeals process.
But 2023 has been a steadier year and we see that in the reduction of near-term liabilities, as
well as an addition of cash:
RIO.v: Assets breakdown, per qtr 300
250
200
150
100
50
0
26
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2
U$m total assets fixed 50 RIO.v: Liabilities overview
other current
45
cash+ST
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
source: company filings
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2
U$m
LT liab
current liab
source: company filings

Regarding the key cash and working capital positions, these two charts show that RIO.v has
managed to get itself on an even keel. By selling non-core royalties to Osisko and then
successfully claiming a sales tax (VAT or IVA) refund that arrived during 2q23, RIO.v has
topped up treasury and as at end 2q23 had U$7.563m on-hand, mostly liquid and then a small
amount in a short-term interest paying term deposit (and please note, these are US Dollars).
Working capital of U$7.11m is healthy and the company has worked its way into the position of
not having to fret about running out of cash through these annoyingly long appeals process.
RIO.v: Cash & ST, per qtr
40
35
30
25 20
15
10
5
0
Another reason for the improved cash position is the drop in burn rate. It’s unfair to compare to
4q21, but the typical U$3.5m-or-so quarterly burn in 2022 is not down to under U$2m, with
exploration and G&A cut to a bare minimum aside from funding the key legal team.
U$m RIO.v: Quarterly expenses breakdown
6
5.5 employ. costs prof fees
5 share comp Expl. Costs
4.5 G&A other
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
1q20 2q20 3q20 4q20 1q21 2q21 3q21 4q21 1q22 2q22 3q22 4q22 1q23 2q23
source: company filings
As for shares out, even if we add the shares
awarded as part salary payment s1ince the end of
the last quarter the total count still stands at
258.753m, only 4.4m higher that way back in 3q21
when things were still on track and the company
was gearing up for its construction phase. We know
that once the permits are received (and this desk
continues to be quietly confident that Chile will see
sense and award the permit on appeal, now that
ideology isn’t as strong among the Boric executive)
All in all, a Q2 that shows RIO.v is on an even keel
while it awaits its moment with the Comité de
Ministros. The only quibble is this from the MD&A regarding the upcoming Feasibility Study for
Fenix, which is either mis-dated or it’s something the company forgot to update for this
quarter’s document and shows they failed to make their original timeline:
This new study will be completed to a feasibility level and is expected to be
completed and published by the end of Q2 2023
As we’re already deep into 3q23 and we don’t have the FS yet, there’s something amiss.
27
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2
U$m RIO.v: Working capital
source: company filings
69.31
92.9 19.9
64.1
60.3
80.0-
68.22
54.91
63.52
11.11
78.0
97.3 16.3
11.7
30
27.5
25
22.5
20
17.5 15
12.5
10
7.5
5
2.5
0
-2.5
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2
U$m
source: company filings
RIO.v: Shares out
49.201 20.301 42.811 42.811
87.081 34.181 34.181 83.281 71.091 17.091 95.991 78.991
43.452 43.452 96.652 15.752 15.752 65.752 46.752 83.852 57.852
300
275
250
225
200
175 150
125
100
75
50
25
0
81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 WON
M s/o
source: company filings

However, we do understand that the FS should be with us soon, probably September and with
that, Fenix will be able to offer up-to-date and inflation-adjusted economic parameters to its
potential financiers once that darned permit is in hand.
More on Argonaut (AR.to) Wesdome (WDO.to) and risk vs. reward
The last couple of editions have featured segments on two stocks under soft coverage here at
The IKN Weekly, namely Wesdome Gold (WDO.to) (WDOFF) in two extended “Producer Basket”
notes covering its 2q23 financials, then Argonaut Gold (AR.to) in “Better but still high risk”
(IKN743) and the “redux” piece last weekend. In that final mentioned note, we rounded off
with the opinion that while both were in better shape, WDO still offered the more interesting
trade potential due to its lower downside risk. A quote:
“(Argonaut) remains high risk/high reward and for this desk, Wesdome (WDO.to, see
Producer Basket above) is a better option for anyone looking to speculate on Canadian
gold producers in a gold rebound. Same potential reward, far less downside risk.
In the five days since then, we’ve seen gold rally back above the U$1,900/oz line and in correct
style, the leveraged producers responded in the right way and in the case of WDO and AR, very
well indeed. Both rallied by around 12% as long as you forgive AR that very late-day Friday dip
(as daytraders took profits before the weekend?) and their reaction to gold’s moves in the
market were very similar, both launching at the same time Wednesday morning and
consolidating Thursday.
We note that these stocks performed significantly better than my own picks for leverage into a
rising gold price, i.e. Equinox (EQX) and Fortuna (FSM) as seen above in ‘Stocks to Follow’.
However, I’m happy about keeping the current pecking order intact and that means holding
EQX and FSM over WDO. Then between these two, my contention that WDO has the same
upside potential is borne out by the above visual. The difference is still on the potential
downside, even though I’d much prefer never to find out. If WDO fails to deliver Kiena on time
it’s not going to roll over and die, but it would only take one more issue at Magino for the world
to run away from Argonaut and never come back. The dilution from above $3.00 to today’s 60c
and 70c price would be but the start of the pain.
Conclusion
IKN745 is done, we end with some bullet points:
 I like SilverCrest (SILV) (SIL.to), it’s just that I like the chances of Fortuna Silver (FSM)
(FVI.to) more at the moment. The numbers make a lot of sense at SILV and it’s built a
great little operation that’s going to make money, but for the time being there’s no
value in the share price, even after its recent dumpage.
 Looking for copper to show the world what the reality of China is, no more doomsters
predicting the end of Xi, please.
28

 Next week should feature our Top Pick front and centre as we pick over its 2q23
numbers. The last of the lull periods, we sincerely hope.
 Avoid Colombia, David. Avoid Colombia.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stock is Minera Alamos (MAI.v). Flash
updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best wishes, Mark
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20230825a.htm
(2) https://www.silvercrestmetals.com/news/2023/index.php?content_id=521
(3) https://www.silvercrestmetals.com/news/2023/index.php?content_id=523
(4) https://www.silvercrestmetals.com/news/2023/index.php?content_id=522
(5) https://latin-metals.com/news-releases/latin-metals-provides-update-on-strategic-milestones-and-investment-for-
2023/
(6) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yVJ6_ON3Zqc
(7) https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/copper-on-track-for-strongest-week-in-a-month/
(8) https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/copper-trapped-between-old-new-super-cycles-2023-08-22/
(9) https://www.westerncopperandgold.com/news-and-resources/news-release/western-copper-and-gold-announces-
drilling-program-at-casino-and-provides-update-on-government-infrastructure-development/
(10) https://arizonasonoran.com/news-releases/arizona-sonoran-to-host-virtual-town-hall-forum-on-september-6-at-11-
am-edt/
(11) https://www.bigmarker.com/vid-conferences/ASCU-SEPT2023-TownHall
(12) https://orocoresourcecorp.com/news/oroco-closes-non-brokered-private-placement-20230815
(13) https://ir.hecla.com/News--Media/news-releases/news-details/2023/Hecla-Announces-Lucky-Friday-
Update/default.aspx
(14) https://coastcoppercorp.com/news-releases/coast-copper-makes-new-high-grade-gold-discovery-at-empire-mine-
property/
(15) https://www.mining-technology.com/news/sweden-lift-uranium-mining-ban/
(16) https://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/1004347/district-metals-welcomes-media-reports-that-
sweden-is-moving-towards-lifting-moratorium-on-uranium-1004347.html
(17) https://www.lahora.com.ec/pais/no-nos-pueden-decir-mineria-legal-ilegal-son-lo-mismo-maria-eulalia-silva/
(18) https://twitter.com/ANMColombia/status/1694891347797237921
(19) https://www.valoraanalitik.com/2023/08/24/no-se-otorgaran-mas-contratos-de-mineria-a-cielo-abierto-anm-de-
colombia/
(20) https://www.bloomberglinea.com/2023/08/22/primeras-encuestas-tras-las-paso-milei-crece-y-quien-queda-en-
segundo-lugar/
(21) https://www.clarin.com/politica/nuevas-encuestas-muestran-crecimiento-javier-milei-eleccion-
octubre_3_KFcuBALCX2.html
29

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2022
Closed in 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
Goldshore Res GSHR.v Nov'22 C$0.18 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 88.9% Quick profit taken
Palamina Corp PA.v Dec'22 C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.08 -72.9% Clear-out of underperformer
Pure Gold PGM.h Dec'22 C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.015 -89.3% tiny trade on vh risk, went Ch11
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Set-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
30

Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
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Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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