IKN #744Premium

The IKN Weekly
Week 744, August 20th 2023
Contents
This Week: In Today’s Edition, Uncomfortably Long, Jackson Hole is with us.
Fundamental Analysis: Menē Inc (MENE.v): 2q23 financials and intrigue to come.
Stocks to Follow: Fortuna Silver (FSM), Libero Copper (LBC.v), Minera IRL (MIRL.cse),
Western Exploration (WEX.v), Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v), Contango ORE (CTGO), SolGold (SOLG.to).
Copper Basket: Overview.
Producer Basket: Overview, Wesdome Gold (WDO.to) (WDOFF), Wheaton Precious Metals
(WPM).
TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Nine Mile Metals (NINE.cse), South Star Battery Metals (STS.v).
Regional Politics: The Ecuador presidential election, Newmont (NEM) and Mexico, Chile: a
cabinet re-shuffle, Argentina: PASO preliminary results (and a Salta royalty move)
Market Watching: Western Exploration (WEX.v) 2q23 financials, Argonaut Gold (AR.to)
redux, A SilverCrest (SILV) (SIL.to) analysis will happen.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
In Today’s Edition
 Today’s introduction is what happens when The IKN Weekly goes fully bullish on the
near-term prospects of this market. Contrarians, step up and buy the cheap equity.
 As for today’s main note we ring the changes by featuring the only non-miner we have
on our lists, the 24kt online bespoke jewellery firm Menē Inc (MENE.v). The company
seems to be at a turning point and it may well pay to watch what happens in the weeks
to come, as its Q2 results and guidance point to something afoot. Our main event in an
otherwise quiet summer Doldrums week.
 The Market Watching section covers the 2q23 financials from Western Exploration
(WEX.v) 2q23 results are more a case of marking time before the real corporate story
unfolds in the next two quarters.
 Regional Politics covers the early results out of Ecuador on today’s Presidential election,
which have kept me up late watching Ecuador political TV shows tonight. We also chew
over the PASO results from last weekend in Argentina and make the case for a close
fight for President in October and November between the upstart Javier Milei and the
orthodox right wing politics of Patricia Bullrich. Either way, Argentina’s next President is
likely to be welcomed by the mining sector and the wider FDI business world
Uncomfortably Long
Hello, is there anybody in there?
Just nod if you can hear me
Is there anyone home?
Comfortably Numb, Pink Floyd, 1979
As Tuesday turned into Wednesday in last week’s painful market for junior mining stocks and
companies of all shapes and sizes took another leg down on low volumes and a complete lack
1

of interest for miners, something like a penny dropped. Sentiment isn’t just in the dumpster
these days, we’re now in desperation straits among investors and that, long with a handful of
other signals, made me suddenly see how we’ve arrived at one of those inflection points. At
times like these, juniors sell off on the lightest of volumes and disdain for the sub-sector
reaches a maximum as the retail world turns its back on “The #*!#* Miners”, vowing never to
return.
At times like these, it pays to be a buyer.
It wasn’t the drops in the overall portfolio or the main holdings that brought my moment of
realization, either. Instead, it came thanks to my opening purchase in Fortuna Silver (FSM)
(FVI.to) last week, bought for what I considered a knockdown price just under U$3.00 on
Monday because before I’d drawn breath, FSM was trading under the U$2.90 line and for no
apparent reason, other than the she-sold-so-he-sold-so-they-sold-so-I-sold vicious circle of
small players throwing in their collective towels. Having recently done the numbers and
knowing how FSM is now turning itself into a growth gold story, seeing the myopic market able
to ignore what was literally just one quarter down
the line became too much to stomach. Gloom and
desperation all around brought on my moment of
thought crystallization and as such, I published
this to Twitter (or “X”, if you must) on Wednesday
morning (1) (right). Comments under the post
including “What took you so long?” from a person
I consider a smart market watcher and trader, too.
That’s okay, I don’t mind being late as long as I’m
not the last one to arrive at a party, in fact in this
case I don’t really mind being a little early, either.
The decision to double down, scrape together
more money and buy more FSM just 48 hours
after filling for what I wanted in Monday isn’t
meant to be a perfect timing moment, I’ll be happy enough to see “August 2023” as the low
point in this market for the metals and mining stocks and if they drop a little further, no sweats.
So the above was the main part of the message, but it was a “one of two” thread and came
with a second threaded Tweet underneath so now, instead of just boorishly copypasting my
own social media, I’m going full lout and quoting myself. Here’s that second posting:
“It's easy to say you're a contrarian. The difficult bit is to know what to be
contrarian against. Times like now, when all is doom/gloom & towels are being
thrown in from all angles, is the time to stick your neck out and go
uncomfortably long.”
Regular readers will know that when it comes to investing in juniors, your author happy enough
to take considered risks but is nobody’s idea of a dashing, swashbuckling trader of verve and
daring. In fact I keep things conservative and under risk management as much as possible,
never using margin, keeping some cash in the portfolio account at all times and keeping overall
exposure firmly inside the “Good Night’s Sleep” rule (i.e. if your investments make you lose
some, sell them). With that said, there also comes a time to make a stand and when the combo
of despondency, apathy and general disgust with mining stocks reaches the levels we see
today, the risk of further meaningful or long-lasting downside is minimized and all risk moves to
the upside.
Things have been this bad before.
They’ll be this bad again in the future.
This time is not different.
Therefore with the change in risk parameters identified and to misquote Rogers Waters, I’ve
become uncomfortably long. I plan to stay this way for a few weeks and consider the extra
added to FSM as a parallel, near-ish term trade that I’ll happy cash in once the rebound comes
along. For that, look to post-Labor Day and the moment that nice Mr. Mark wakes up and
realizes that metals and miners of all sorts should not have been sold down as low as they were
in August 2023.
2

Jackson Hole is with us
This week’s main macro event is the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, the annual
econo-geek bunfest with some the best views out of hotel windows of any high level financial
conference and these days along with Labor Day, the signal to the industrialized North than
summer vacays are over and it’s time to get back to work. This year Jackson Hole t runs August
24th to 26th (a little earlier in the calendar than usual) and among the great and good
presenting and networking, the main event is undoubtedly Fed Head Jerome Powell’s
“Economic Outlook” speech on Friday morning.
We can also make a reasonable guess as to its main thrust this year, because WSJ journalis and
so-called “Fed Whisperer”, Nick Timiraos, has been on the wires this weekend with the kind of
speculation-that-isn’t publication that has earned him his nickname. He had this to say (2):
 Despite the Federal Reserve’s raising interest rates to a 22-year high, the economy remains
surprisingly resilient, with estimates putting third-quarter growth on pace to easily exceed its
2% trend. It is one of the factors leading some economists to question whether rates will ever
return to the lower levels that prevailed before 2020 even if inflation returns to the Fed’s 2%
target over the next few years.
 At issue is what is known as the neutral rate of interest.
 Every quarter, Fed officials project where rates will settle over the longer run, which is in effect
their estimate of neutral. The median estimate declined from 4.25% in 2012 to 2.5% in 2019.
After subtracting inflation of 2%, that yielded a real neutral rate (sometimes called “r*” or “r-
star”) of 0.5%. In June, the median was still 0.5%.
 But while the median hasn’t changed, some officials’ estimates have been creeping up. In
June, seven of 17 officials’ estimates were above 0.5% and only three were lower. A year
earlier, eight were below 0.5% and two were above.
That might be the reason the metals complex is rallying slightly into the Asia open this Sunday
evening (your author is on late shift checking the Ecuador election results, there’s time to
update today’s intro) or it may not, because we also have the PBO China dropping its country’s
base lending rate by 10 points this evening, which looks like the start of a stimulus event..
Either way, if the Fed is about to signal to us that it will settle for a higher baseline rate of
inflation, it also means the pivot from rates tightening to loosening should come sooner, rather
than later. That’s good for metals
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Menē Inc (MENE.v): 2q23 financials and intrigue to come
On Thursday evening, the only non-mining company we cover and follow on these pages, the
online 24kt jewellery seller Menē Inc (MENE.v), reported its 2q23 numbers. We normally cover
MENE, even its quarterly result, in the ‘Stocks to Follow’ section of The IKN Weekly but this
time it’s going to make the main fundies section as there seems to be movement afoot with the
company and I want to make sure it gets enough eyeballs before whatever transformation the
company has in mind happens. So today we check on the numbers delivered via our usual
tracking charts for the stock, then move to discuss what we may get from the second half of
2023, but first some background and we’ll start with our standard corporate structure topbox:
Class A Shares out: 110.342m
Class B Shares out: 149.389m
Options: 1.141m
RSUs: 0.1m
Fully diluted: 260.972m
Current share price: C$0.445
Market Cap: C$115.58m
All prices are in Canadian Dollars unless stated. Forex U$0.75=CAD$1
3

We remind readers that CEO and co-founder of MENE, Roy Sebag, owns the vast majority of
Class A shares. As these have higher vote weighting, he effectively has tight control of company
ownership via this holding.
We last checked out MENE.v in IKN733 and in its 1q23 financials and along with another set of
in-line results that showed little Year-over-Year (YoY) growth, the company CEO Roy Sebag
teased significant changes and growth plans this year (3):
“We are nearing the completion of this plan which will see the company attract new
talent to the C-Suite, implement a new marketing strategy, and return to consistent top-
line growth. We anticipate that by Q2 2023 release, we will be in a position to better
articulate our new strategy.”
Then on July 20th MENE.v announced it had appointed a new CFO and went into some detail
about the reasons for the old CFO departure, as well as the search process and appointment.
Read the NR here (4) for the names and CV background (all in order, as far as I’m concerned)
and this excerpt from the CEO comment will do as a sample of the right flavour:
“…the Board of Directors initiated a search for his replacement. The board collectively
saw this development as an opportunity to reflect on where we would like to see Menē
in five years and to put in place the right corporate infrastructure that would allow us to
pursue an ambitious long-term plan that would allow us to scale our business.”
With that sort of prelude, this desk was expecting something different from the 2q23 numbers
and we got just that, what’s up for questioning is whether the change is good or bad. Let’s start
with the lifeblood of any retail operation, revenues (right). MENE: Revenues per qtr
Sales of C$4.983m were 900k lower than the
same quarter in 2022 and in fact, the lowest
since the “Covid Quarter” of 2q20, somewhat
disconcerting. Regarding sales, the MD&A
comment was that “…the growth rate has
slowed down in the last 4 quarters due to the
economic environment which realised higher
interest rates, higher recessionary risk and
decreased consumer spending.” Meanwhile,
the cover NR for the financials included a
longer quote from CEO Sebag and started with
this comment on sales:
This quarter saw Menē produce its first meaningful year over year decline in top-line
revenue. This reduction in sales was anticipated by management and reflects more of
a change in operational focus rather than a lack of demand for our products.
Notwithstanding the decline in YoY sales, our financial results this quarter demonstrate
the growing resilience of our brand with positive operating income, Adjusted EBITDA,
and even IFRS net income.
Or put another way, management doesn’t seem too concerned with this drop in sales. However
I’m not so sure, as the data under the main sales metrics show a clear slowdown. Customer
orders were down to 3,650 dockets (below left), average units per order down to 1.44 ( below
right and again, joint lowest since the Covid Quarter)…
4
751.5
934.3
324.5 11.7 302.7 457.5 813.5
894.8
643.7 158.5 50.5
566.8
251.7 389.4
10
9
8
7
6
5
4 3
2
1
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2
C$m
source: company filings
MENE: Customer orders, per qtr
7514 0972 4643
4745 7605
7734 3514
4856 7045
7493 5714
5946 8394
0563
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000 3000
2000
1000
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2
MENE: Units sold per order
source: MENE filings
06.1 67.1 27.1 85.1 55.1 46.1 25.1 45.1 44.1 67.1 94.1 85.1 95.1 44.1
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0 0.8
0.6 0.4
0.2
0.0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2
source: MENE data

…and while average grams per unit sold held within normal ranges (below left) the total kilos of
gold (and platinum) sold dropped to just 48kg, a full 16kg less than the same quarter of 2022.
However, there is a clear flipside to this quarter’s financial results and the first note of that is in
the above quote from CEO Sebag, as sales are down but…
MENE: Gross profit margin, per qtr
5
%02 %72 %92 %42 %42 %72 %32 %42 %72 %62 %22 %42 %42 %03
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2
MENE: Avg grams Au per unit sold
source: MENE filings
…gross margin at 29.9% is the highest ever run by MENE.v in any given quarter. To be clear,
this is the percentage between top line
revenues and cost of goods sold (i.e. the metal
value), before the other main cost “operating
expenses” (i.e. making/distributing the units) is
factored in. When those are added, together,
the C$3.493m COGS and the C$1.433m
operating expenses combine to a total of
C$4.926m, the first time it’s been under C$5m
since 2q20. So MENE has sold less, but
increased its margins and kept both COGS and
op-ex under a tight rein and as an added
bonus, we also saw an inventory build of
finished goods…
93.01 39.7 04.9 08.8 60.01 71.9 18.9 66.9 72.01 15.9 00.9 44.9 72.9 21.9
11
10
9
8
7
6 5
4 3 2
1
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2
source: MENE filings
uA
smarg
MENE: Precious metals sales in Kg, per qtr
96 93 65 67 97 66 26
89
08 66 65
79
37 84
110
100
90
80
70
60 50
40 30 20
10
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2
source: MENE filings
)tP
ronim
htiw(
uA
gK
MENE.v: Costs breakdown
127.1
441.4
582.1125.2
133.1
548.3
319.1
914.5
35.1
664.5
34.1
422.4
614.1
270.4
248.1
984.6
656.1
393.5
296.1
123.4
454.1
729.3
651.2
726.6
315.1
924.5
334.1
394.3
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2
$m
COGS operating exp
source: company filings,IKN ests
MENE: Inventories per qtr
2.704.023.15 5.29 2.43 3.94 3.083.32
1.360.29 1.38
294.7
186.01
939.21 814.11
165.11
981.8
533.7
709.01 708.21
754.21
990.31
489.41
8.41 273.21
531.11
606.11
458.21 177.11
534.41
24
22
20
18
16
14
12 10
8
6
4 2
0
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2
C$m
Raw Mat. Work in Prog
Finished Goods Supplies
source: company filings

…that suggest MENE is ahead on fabrication and that should keep costs down in the quarter to
come. It all adds up to better financial results than those lacklustre sales numbers and it’s clear,
there’s something of a strategic shift going on at the company. And while the net income of
$0.7m is more than expected and the best yardstick for bottom lines, its operating income
(right) of C$0.057m was little more than breakeven, that’s still a good result considering the
drop in sales.
MENE.v: Operating income, per qtr
6
807.0-
763.0-
742.0
222.0-
702.0
1.0
71.0-
761.0 792.0
261.0- 133.0- 811.0-
12.0
750.0
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
-0.2 -0.4
-0.6
-0.8
-1
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2
C$m
source: company filings
What’s more, a couple of balance sheet items show a change of direction and while the
company overall remains in great financial shape with a rock solid balance sheet (one of the
things I’ve always appreciated is the bombproof nature of its financial structure and the risk
mitigation shown by CEO Sebag as this company established itself).
MENE.v: Assets, per qtr
40
35
30
25
20
15
10 5 0
While total assets (above left) dropped mostly due to a drawdown in cash to C$1.905m (above
right) and near-term investments down around C$1m, MENE used those funds to pay down its
liabilities (below left) and specifically, its credit line with related company Goldmoney (another
Roy Sebag entity) and borrowings dropped by around C$2.5m, with most of that the C$2.15m it
paid back to Goldmoney. MENE has a revolving credit line of up to 500oz gold (or equivalent in
platinum) and was up to using 483oz, that’s now back to 400oz and suggests the company is
expecting to benefit from higher gold prices in the future. So overall, it nearest equivalent at
the company to working capital, i.e. equity (below right) improved slightly on the quarter as
MENE seemingly re-focuses itself.
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2
MENE.v: Cash & inventory
$m
cash inventories ST Inv other
17.5
10.312.013.0 8.7 9.1 7.5 11.6 8.8 2.1 4.35.1 3.03.33.6 4.4 1.1 5.5 1.9
source: company filings, IKN ests
7.31
3.21
9.41 6.51 6.21
5.9
2.01
3.41
0.71
9.71 4.71 7.12
5.81 3.41
3.21 6.71
9.41
2.61 0.91
35
30
25
20
15
10
5 0
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2
$m inventories
cash
source: MENE filings, IKN ests
MENE.v: Liabilities Breakdown per qtr
143.9 659.9 515.01 792.01 714.9 76.9 119.9 124.01 689.01 395.01 719.11 474.11 484.21 277.9
22
20
18 16
14
12 10 8 6
4
2
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2
source: company filings/IKN ests
srallod
fo snoillim
MENE.v: Equity per qtr
note payable
other liab borrowings
123.41 188.21 791.21 913.01 279.51 201.71 310.61 526.51 189.61 659.51 831.81 964.71 289.61 752.71
20
18
16
14
12
10 8 6
4
2
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2
source company filings/IKN ests
srallod
fo snoillim

Summing up, we’re left with a bit of a conundrum and three question marks floating above the
head of this company:
 Its sales dropped but bottom line and the financial position remains healthy
 It says it is making substantive changes
 It doesn’t seem to be in a hurry to make these changes, as CEO Sebag told us at the 1q23
financial release that all would be revealed with the 2q23 numbers. Here we are today and
they’re still teasing the big changes for the future.
Indeed, we get more of the same style if we return to the 2q23 NR comments from CEO Sebag:
Over the next few quarters, Menē’s business activity will reflect a series of structural
changes we are making both with respect to the day-to-day operations but also with
respect to our company’s longer-term strategy. From the perspective of the Board and
Founders, we are not concerned about YoY comps in sales through the end of 2023.
Our goal is to ensure that we are making the right investments in people, processes,
and our brand whilst preserving our tangible capital.
Going forward, we will begin to report an Adjusted EBITDA metric which deducts
depreciation, amortization, stock-based compensation, and other non-recurring
expenses as we believe this will be the most important metric in measuring our
company’s success over time. In the first six months of 2023, Menē has produced
$426k in Adjusted EBITDA (IFRS total operating income of $267k).
The most important event this quarter was the successful transition in the role of Chief
Financial Officer from Adil Sheikh to Gavin Johnson. Gavin is the first of several hires
we anticipate announcing in the coming months. We are hoping to attract the right
executives with the requisite experience, strategy, and discipline to lead Menē in its
next phase of growth.
So with all that in mind, on Thursday evening I shot CEO Sebag a mail, pointing out a few of
the apparently contradicting metrics (low gold sales and low revenues as negatives, but highest
ever gross margins, a good op-ex number and those borrowings paid down as positives) and
asked if he could provide some extra flavour and how all these pros and cons fit together with a
new and future change in strategy. Over the years CEO Sebag and this desk have kept in touch
via the occasional mail and he’s always been transparent and helpful with any queries (and
always inside correct disclosure rules, he’s a 100% straight shooter). However, this time he
managed to add to the mystery instead of dissipating anything as I got by return (and you get
the whole thing, nothing to hide here):
Hello Mark, I hope you are well.
Normally I'd be happy to elaborate. But in this case I must defer to the statement in the
NR. I've said publicly since the Goldmoney shareholder letter in June that we hope to
provide a proper update to Mene shareholders soon. There are significant changes in
the works all of which are positive. That's all I can say at the moment echoing what I've
said in the NR.
All the best, Roy
Which is fair enough I suppose, however I’ll admit that I wasn’t expecting a “mind your own
business” mail, however enigmatic or pleasantly written it might be.
The bottom line: I started this small position willing to give MENE the time and leeway it
required to grow a business model that looked smart from the get-go. The company has always
taken a conservative route and, what with the way the market has changed, its progress and
growth has been slower than I expected. That shows in its share price performance but, as an
adherent to what they’ve been doing (and why), it’s
never been an issue and from time to time I’ve
dipped in, bought a few small tranches of shares and
added to the holding. These days it’s still small, but
it’s not a tiny holding either. I’m willing to continue
giving Sebag and his team the time they require and
if the “significant changes in the works all of which
are positive” are enough to light a fire under this
rather boring holding to date, then all fine. However,
7

there’s clearly going to be a moment soon when MENE reveals its new strategy and at that
point, I’ll have some sort of decision to make. The most likely will be “keep holding” (I’m not
going to pretend otherwise), but the teasing and the delay to this big announcement, along
with the change in CFO and the moves to pay down debt and raise gross margins on sales, all
need to gel together and until they do, it’s going to be a little mysterious. As a general rule of
thumb, I don’t like mysteries with my investment holdings. Therefore and the bottom line to
this bottom line, I’m going to wait and see what MENE comes out with and when they do,
expect comments and opinions on these pages. Meanwhile, that low revenue 2q23 was
countered by a healthier looking set of financials. It could have been worse and whatever is
about to happen to MENE, be it a pivot into a new business model or a re-boot that opens the
business model up to new markets and a wider audience, or whatever else, the company will
have its strong financial position as a springboard. That continues to be the ace in the hole at
MENE and due to that, I’m willing to give CEO Sebag his chance to impress us with the
enigmatic and slightly delayed newsflow in the near future. Holding.
Stocks to Follow
While trading and the market was once again quiet and we saw another Summer Doldums
week, last week also saw prices for mining companies of all shapes and sizes, explorecos,
juniors and seniors, marked down heavily as sellers wanting our found very few buyers. It was
one of the more bizarre weeks of trading to witness, with apathy on both sides of the market
but enough small traders throwing in their towels to create a vicious circle of selling.
Our Stocks to Follow were hit along with the rest and while it helped to be a buyer of cheap
stocks, it wasn’t pleasant to see the portfolio marked down the way it was. There were just
three weekly winners on our list (OCU.v, LMS.v, MENE.v) and three other stocks remained
unchanged (QCCU.v, NCAU.v, ALDE.v), which means you’re not getting the long list of 15
losers. Instead we’ll note the double figure drops and be done, they were Minera IRL (MIRL.cse
down 20.0%), Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v down 16.0%), Faraday Copper (FDY.to down 14.5%), AbraSilver
(ABRA.v down 12.9%), Western Exploration (WEX.v down 11.5%) and Libero Copper (LBC.v
down 11.1%)
With the addition of Fortuna Silver (FSM) last week there are now 21 stocks in our table, one
above the max and I plan to do something about that. Five of the stocks are in the green, the
rest are in the red.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.29 38.1% $0.75 first tgt, #1 idea
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Amerigo Res ARG.to STR BUY C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.42 4.4% Main Cu trade, top fundies
SolGold SOLG.to STR BUY C$0.265 19-Feb-23 C$0.245 -7.5% Cu in Ecuador, M&A tgt
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v BUY C$0.265 25-Apr-21 C$0.165 -37.7% delayed MRE now due end Q3
Equinox Gold EQX SPEC BUY U$4.46 30-May-23 U$4.55 2.0% Au leverage trade, trading well
Fortuna Silver FSM SPEC BUY U$2.92 13-Aug-23 U$2.86 -2.1% New trade, want quick flip
Faraday Copper FDY.to BUY C$0.79 26-Mar-23 C$0.71 -10.1% USA based Cu exploreco
Contango Ore CTGO BUY U$18.70 30-Jul-23 U$18.31 -2.1% new purchase IKN741
AbraSilver Res. ABRA.v BUY C$0.36 4-Dec-22 C$0.27 -25.0% added for last time Mar'23
Newcore Gold NCAU.v SPEC BUY C$0.205 23-Oct-22 C$0.135 -34.1% Financing closed, bottom in
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v BUY C$0.83 22-Apr-18 C$0.21 -74.7% Cheap on permit probs, appeal
8

SPECULATIVE TRADES
Orecap inv OCI.v SPEC BUY C$0.04 20-Nov-22 C$0.035 -12.5% corp revamp, new strategy
Western Explor. WEX.v SPEC BUY C$1.87 9-Apr-23 C$0.92 -50.8% Au spec in USA, started badly
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v SPEC BUY C$0.72 16-May-21 C$0.91 26.4% now in drill assay season
Minera IRL MIRL.cse avoid C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.02 -89.7% run into ground byCEO, AVOID
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
Marimaca Copper MARI.to WATCH C$3.65 26-May-23 C$3.95 8.2% Likely buy, want cheap entry
Latin Metals LMS.v WATCH C$0.15 11-Sep-22 C$0.115 -23.3% Peru&Arg prospect generator
Surge Copper SURG.v WATCH C$0.11 18-Jun-23 C$0.10 -9.1% tinycap Cu in BC Canada
Libero Copper LBC.v WATCH C$0.065 2-Jul-23 C$0.04 -38.5% Watching for Arg drill permit
Rugby Resources RUG.v WATCH C$0.06 26-Mar-23 C$0.055 -8.3% tinycap Cu in Colombia
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.63 6-Dec-20 C$0.445 -29.4% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2023 date closed close price
Altiplano Metals APN.v jan'23 C$0.31 17-Sep-21 C$0.17 -45.2% delayed and will dilute soon
Western Copper WRN.to mar'23 C$2.02 13-Nov-22 C$2.32 14.9% sold on reduced M&A prob.
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v may'23 C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$1.75 -43.0% Closing on legal action news
Amerigo Res ARG.to may'23 C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.48 8.8% sold 20% to raise cash
2015 to 2022 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on a few of our covered companies:
Fortuna Silver (FSM): POSITION OPENED. What’s more, I bought twice. That as seen in
today’s Intro section and reiterated here, with the second purchase getting the cost average
down to an excellently cheap U$2.92. I’m happy with this purchase and while FSM may see
lower prices during our gloom-laden August
Doldrums, being close to the bottom is all I’ll ever
ask from any trade.
As for execution plans, as mentioned quickly above
I’m not against selling a portion of these shares
back into the market quickly if a near-term bounce
brings a quick profit (not joking about being
uncomfortably thin on ready cash after this week)
but the real trade in FSM this year is to hold as
Seguela’s charms manifest into first its production
and then its financial results, ones we expect to be
backed up by the long-overdue improvements to
Yaramoko now that most of the capex work is complete. Meanwhile and for a slight downer to
round out the notes, please check in the Regional Politics section today as the province of Salta
is looking to hike regional royalties on mining operations.
Libero Copper (LBC.v): Our main feature on this company was in IKN737 dated July 2nd
2023 and entitled “Libero Copper (LBC.v) has a trade set up on the San Juan election result”.
That weekend LBC was a 6.5c stock and our call was clear}: WE WAIT. This tiny and beaten
down stock is on our Watch List for one reason only; if it gets those elusive permits to drill La
Esperanza, we will have a window of opportunity to buy in before the assays come back on a
near-guaranteed eye-popper of a hole. However, without that permit LBC is worthless (as much
for Mocoa as for anything unpermitted in Argentina) as should be treated as such.
We’re now IKN744, seven added since the trade set-up was discussed and it comes as no
surprise to see LBC down further. We should also note that its placement opened in July to sell
up to 40m units at 5c apiece (unit = share + full warrant priced at 7.5c) closed last week (6),
three weeks later than scheduled, and only managed to vend 9.13m units. LBC is calling that
9

the “first tranche” and if they can keep it open until the elusive permit shows, that might
become true but either way, don’t hold your breath on any second closing.
Minera IRL (MIRL.cse): As quietly as it possibly could, MIRL filed its 2q23 financials last
week (no NR, no mailer, no adding to the CSE dedicated website (5)) and considering the mess
the company is in and the skulduggery that goes on among that band of hoodwinkers and
bunkum makers, that’s not a surprise.
What we know is that revenues in 2q23 of U$7.421m were swamped only by mine COGS of
U$8.547m so the company made a gross loss of U$1.126mm. Then add over a million in G&A
and U$2.7m in debt servicing charges (mostly interest on the COFIDE bridge loan but also
includes $180k in cash charges for the 3% per month unsecured U$2m loan of dubious
provenance that MIRL took out over a year ago and has failed to pay back), the quarter
returned a net loss of U$4.894m.
We’re now just months from the default of the Ollachea loan, too. The end is nigh.
As for the balance sheet, even if we strip out the U$85m liability on the Ollachea loan and
ignore its official working cap of -$108.78m, MIRL still runs a negative working cap of negative
U$23.776m. Also and tellingly, it cannot even make its own payroll these days. As at end 1q23,
unpaid salaries to director and management came to U$88,000 but as at end 2q23, that had
climbed to U$409,000. If this bunch of self-serving equity destroyers can’t pay their own
salaries, the company really is in deep trouble.
Western Exploration (WEX.v): We take a closer look at the 2q23 financials as reported by
WEX in ‘Market Watching’ below, Here we note that despite the stock going South again last
week, the financials were overall net neutral but, what with the thin market we have, the real
world situation of the company matters little at the moment. We trust that will change and will
continue to give WEX its chance to impress us with the drillbit.
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v): The cabinet re-shuffle in Chile (see Regional Politics) may cause further
delay to this already tiresome and tedious wait for the Comité de Ministros appeals process for
the Fenix project, what with the Mining Ministry team seeing wholesale changes at the top. For
what it’s worth, I think it’s good news to have a pragmatic, pro-mining new Minister coming in
and will swap a few more weeks of ennui for a positive result, any day of the week.
Contango ORE (CTGO): Even this solid stock traded under U$18 breifly last week as small
sellers decided to take any price on anything.
SolGold (SOLG.to): If there’s one return into the red that I can understand, albeit on a
temporary basis, it’s this one as the news and images of further violence and unrest in Ecuador
in the lead-up to this weekend’s uncertain and contentious presidential election would be
enough for casual speculators to run away from anything connected to the country, even this
stock. However, with Luisa González heading the
round one vote and the right wing pro-biz Daniel
Noboa looking like the other to make the run-off,
the vote has gone in the right direction for SOLG.
We now get to see whether Rafa Correa’s party
does its deal with CONAIE, which I suspect may
happen and if so, SOLG is unlikely to be one of the
projects affected by any moratorium. Watching and
waiting, but the election result this weekend has
gone the right way for this stock and we should see
it rally, as long as copper-the-metal plays along.
10

The Copper Basket
After thirty-three weeks of 2023, The Copper Basket shows a loss of 8.46% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Solaris Res SLS.to 6.44 146.599 837.08 5.71 -11.3%
2 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.22 92.882 366.88 3.95 22.7%
3 Western Copper WRN.to 2.41 151.597 291.07 1.92 -20.3%
4 Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to 1.92 105.96 161.06 1.52 -20.8%
5 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.78 172.551 157.02 0.91 16.7%
6 Hot Chili HCH.v 0.78 119.455 142.15 1.19 52.6%
7 Oroco Res OCO.v 0.91 213.438 140.87 0.66 -27.5%
8 Faraday Copper FDY.to 0.54 175.2 124.39 0.71 31.5%
9 Regulus Res. REG.v 1.10 124.509 102.10 0.82 -25.5%
10 Pan Global Res PGZ.v 0.46 212.145 62.58 0.295 -35.9%
11 Kodiak Copper KDK.v 1.12 56.2 41.03 0.73 -34.8%
12 QC Copper QCCU.v 0.165 162.815 26.86 0.165 0.0%
13 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.16 86.966 14.78 0.17 6.3%
14 Libero Copper LBC.v 0.155 119.58 4.78 0.04 -74.2%
15 Atacama Copper ACOP.v 0.16 35.94 5.39 0.15 -6.3%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg -8.46%
The Copper Basket average dropped over 5% on the week, a big dump driven by eleven losers
(not listing them all), with three unchanged stocks
on the week (ALDE.v, PGZ.v, QCCU.v) which The Copper Basket 2023, weekly evolution
12%
leaves a single cheer for our only week-over-week 10%
8%
winner, Atacama Copper (ACOP.v up 7.1%, or a
6%
penny in real terms). So yeas, a tough week for 4%
2%
the junior copper sub-sector and there were four
0%
double figure percentage losers in the mix, -2%
-4%
headed by Faraday Copper (FDY.to down 14.5% -6%
and that hurts because I own some), then Libero -8%
-10%
Copper (LBC.v down 11.1%), Arizona Sonoran
(ASCU.to down 10.5% and Solaris Resources
(SLS.to down 10.1%). With that negative result,
the basket average has lost nearly all the ground
it managed to re-gain over the last five weeks and just one more negative week will see us at
2023 lows. Humph.
We move to the metals and this is the last airing for the Comex September copper contract
(HGU23) as trading is now in the process of rolling over to the December contract (HGZ23),
with first notice for HGU23 up on August 31st and expiry September 27th. As from next week,
we’ll roll over with the main trading volume as well. This week’s chosen time scale goes back a
couple of years and the bigger
picture, as the drop last week to
a technical floor got a bounce at
just the right time. A good thing,
too, any lower and the state of
the copper price would not be
good.
And the reason for this
weakness? Why China, of
course! By now you must have
heard the new round of
ChinaFears! running through the
11
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2yluj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6gua ht31 ht02
source: IKN calcs

chat-o-sphere but if not, instead of doing something copper-specific this week I thought we’d
offer up a visual:
This screenshot (no links offered, not the point of the exercise) is what showed up from
searching “China Economy” in Google News this weekend and has lefties (Guardian), Righties
(WaPo) and the biz papers (Bloomie, FT, WSJ) singing from the same song sheet. What’s more,
if you go beyond the normal sources for a junior mining newsletter and dig deeper into the
apparent near-term future of China, we’re about to see the country move on a religious
crackdown, see the country’s demographics fall to pieces due to the famous One Child policy
and then there’s the matter of its youth unemployment, which we’re told is now so high that
the Chinese government is going to stop publishing the data. How that tallies with the data out
of Shanghai in our next section, our regular weekly review of copper inventories with data
supplied by Chile’s Cochilco, is more difficult for the mainstream media to explain.
 While it’s still quite out there, we’re also seeing a typical mid-year drawdown of
inventory and once we aggregate the three official futures systems, world stocks
dropped by 6,423 metric tonnes (mt) to close at 170,750mt.
 The big move came at the Shanghai SHFE, which shed a full 13,687mt of stock to close
the week with just 39,228mt under roof. That’s a big drop and puts stocks back at the
“scrape the barrel” level we saw for an extended period in late 2022, see below for
more.
 The LME saw its copper stocks move in the other direction, its stocks up 7,300mt on
the week. The rump of that move as 2,500mt landing in Taiawn (potentially arb with
SHFE) and another 3,475mt adeed to the quickly increasing stocks at its New Orleans
USA warehouses. That’s the ‘Roach Motel’ of the LME system and with a total of
28,900mt there, the overall 92,200mt in LME is effectively even tighter than the
headline might suggest. On the other hand, overall cancelled warrants remain very low
at 525mt, that’s a bare minimum and indicates the continues lack of market interest
and/or speculation.
 Comex made another tiny change, this time down 36mt to close the week at 39,322mt.
No biggie.
We’ll just go with one of our dedicated SHFE charts this week, as what matters most is the
return of SHFE stocks to the sub-40k level. If 3q23 pans out like 3q22, we now bump along at
12

this level until close to the end of the year. However, if stocks drop any further the pips really
will squeak and the spectre of “stockout” may become a reality on mainland China.
SHFE copper inventory levels, 2018 to 2023
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
13
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
MT Cu 2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
source: Cochilco data
In other words and much as I might hate it, I’m still fully aligned with Robert Friedland on
copper, with Mark Bristow on copper and with Tom Palmer on copper. We might or might not
get a small lull in the ravenous growth in demand for the red metal in the back half of this year
but be in no doubt, China isn’t about to collapse (whatever Zerohedge might have you believe
to the contrary) and copper’s supply/demand dynamics will continue to push prices higher.
No notes this week, it’s a little too depressing to try and explain 10% drops on no volume and
no news.
The Producer Basket
After 33 weeks of 2023, the Producer Basket shows a loss of 5.06% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 47.20 799 30.52 38.20 -19.1%
2 Barrick GOLD 17.18 1761.54 27.50 15.61 -9.1%
3 Agnico Eagle AEM 51.99 488.9 22.60 46.22 -11.1%
4 Wheaton PM WPM 39.08 451.963 18.54 41.01 4.9%
5 Kinross Gold KGC 4.09 1256.1 5.80 4.62 13.0%
6 Alamos Gold AGI 10.11 393.1 4.34 11.04 9.2%
7 B2Gold BTG 3.57 1074.567 3.23 3.01 -15.7%
8 Hecla Mining GFI 5.56 610.491 2.80 4.58 -17.6%
9 Eldorado Gold EGO 8.36 185.73 1.61 8.66 3.6%
10 Wesdome Gold WDOFF 5.53 147.526 0.75 5.05 -8.7%
All prices and stock quotes in U$ Port. avg -5.06%
Another bad week for PM stocks, as witnessed by the main ETFs, with GDX down 6.8% and
GDXJ down 6.0%. Our basket of ten dropped with the rest and all ten were losers, from ‘least
worst Be2Gold (BTG down 3.8%) and Hecla (HL down 4.6%), to most worst Wesdome (WDOFF
down 10.6%) and Wheaton (WPM down 9.4%). The average was very close to the GDX
benchmark and while we gained back a couple of hundredths, there’s precious little change to
report.
The 2023 Producer Basket: Percentage difference
between GDX benchmark & basket (negative = IKN ahead)
4.0%
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2yluj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6gua ht31 ht02
The 2023 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
comparative to GDX control
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
source: IKN calcs, NYSE data
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2yluj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6gua ht31 ht02
ikn
gdx control
source: NYSE, IKN calcs

Wesdome Gold (WDO.to) (WDOFF): This time last weekend in the note covering WDO’s
2q23 earnings, I identified myself as a possible buyer at this price range though would also
prefer to wait a while, with the 3q23 result (around November) as a potential window to offer
the same size of reward, along with lower risk and/or uncertainty about Kiena delivering. As
things turned out last week, Monday opened with gold down and WDO managing to swim
against the general tide for about half a day, then the sellers piled on relentlessly and come
Friday, it had lost 10.6% and was the biggest loser of our basket. The fairest comparative,
therefore, is the ten-day chart compared to GDX
(right) that shows WDO flat over two weeks and
about +5% to the market, still a reasonable result
over the earnings period but the drop we saw as
gold went under U$1,900/oz wiped out nearly all the
earnings bounce.
There aren’t any good fundies reasons for the drop
we saw in WDO, it was merely the market being
cruel to another precious metals stock and
liquidating positions in a sector that it doesn’t want
to own. And yes, that makes WDO an even better
bargain than the one we examined this time last
weekend and the approx 31% upside we sketched
out for the US listed stock last week is now closer to a 47% theoretical upside (as long as the
company delivers on Kiena, of course). So while running an obvious risk of trying to be way too
cute for my own good and timing this volatile and painful market to near perfection, I’ll keep
WDO in the frame as post-tax loss selling Christmas cracker bargain basement option but
between now and then, I’d like to see balance sheet improvement and working cap back in the
green in the 3q23 report, along with “all to plan” noises from the Kiena Deeps development.
Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM): We didn’t make any mention of the WPM 2q23 earnings
last weekend, that came in largely in-line and even saw the stock outperform for the wonderful
time period of a full day (last Friday) before falling back into line. While the Peñasquito strike
also affects WPM as well as its owner Newmont (NEM, see Regional Politics for that one) and
sales came in slightly lower than expected, earnings were fine and the small shortfall in sales
was explained by ounces produced that had not yet been delivered (implying we should see
them added to the 3q23 pile). WPM also reiterated overall 2023 guidance and overall, the
market took the report in its stride.
Therefore, it’s concerning to see the stock is one of last week’s biggest droppers, down 9.4%
and eating away at the lead it enjoyed over most of its peers. This reminded your author of the
potential mistake of choosing a streamer/royalty play over a classic PM miner as a “more
defensive” position. This 2023 YTD chart of WPM, along with its main peer Franco-Nevada
(FNV) and the GDX benchmark shows there is some credence to the strategy, with both WPM
and GDX out-doing the GDx even before dividends are awarded, but it’s not much of a lead and
what’s more, the “defensive” WPM’s best moment in 2023 was when out-performing GDX in the
bullish run between March and April.
14

Taking one step further back, if we add a few more streamer/royalty plays to the same chart
and time period, we fact WPM and FNV out-perform their peers even more than the GDX…so
much the streamer/royalty sub-sector being defensive and we haven’t even included the awful
Gold Royalty Corp (GROY), down another 40% YTD after bad years in 2021 and 2022.
So even with WPM’s bad week last week, it stands ahead of the pack, as does FNV, which
suggests that for defensive PM stocks you shouldn’t choose streamer/royalty companies,
instead choose best-of-breed no matter which peer group you’re considering.
The TinyCaps List
After 33 weeks of 2023, the TinyCaps show a gain of 14.38% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Aurelius Min AUL.v 0.07 49.787 1.00 0.02 -71.4%
Coast Copper COCO.v 0.045 64.001 2.56 0.04 -11.1%
District Metals DMX.v 0.075 86.891 12.60 0.145 93.3%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.13 69.962 8.05 0.115 -11.5%
Manitou Gold MTU.v 0.02 344.568 18.95 0.055 175.0%
Nine Mile Metals NINE.cse 0.29 57.025 8.27 0.145 -67.2%
Palamina Corp PA.v 0.08 65.285 8.49 0.13 62.5%
Precipitate Gold PRG.v 0.075 130.367 8.47 0.065 -13.3%
South Star STS.v 0.55 40.129 23.27 0.58 5.5%
Viva Gold VAU.v 0.14 106.721 13.34 0.125 -17.9%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 14.38%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $20m. They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a
little and allowed sub-U$20m market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, but it was a particularly depressing exercise to trawl through the whole of the TSXV and find companies
that are small enough, but with life in them. The vast majority of sub-$20m stocks are broken stocks, either
traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2023. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
The TinyCaps basket managed to swim against the
TinyCaps, 2023 weekly tracker
tide and improve by around 3.5% last week, even 50%
45%
though there were only two winners (LMS.v, STS.v) on
40%
the list of ten. That’s because South Star (STS.v up 35%
30%
19.6%) put in a late spurt Friday and closed well,
25%
20%
15
15%
10%
5%
0%
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2yluj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6gua ht31 ht02
source: IKN calcs, TSX data

which was enough to neutralize the four losers (COCO.v, DMX.v, NINE.cse, VAU.v), with four
stocks staying out the fight (AUL.v, MTU.v, PA.v, PRG.v).
Nine Mile Metals (NINE.cse): Despite its +20.8% move the week before last, we made little
mention of NINE.cse in IKN743 and sure enough…
…it was an ephemeral pop’n’drop and we’re back where we were. Your actual casino
pennycrapper, it has its following and story to tell about potential riches in Canadian VMS but
steer clear when the noise is loudest (and perhaps, remember the ticker it when all is quiet).
South Star Battery Metals (STS.v): We featured STS and its most interesting placement in
IKN743 last weekend, since then the stock has done this:
On a general down week for junior stocks that would have been a decent performance even
without that price ramp on Thursday that stuck fast Friday. Its new holders Fitpart won’t go
unnoticed in Brazil and with recent successes in the same “battery mining” sector thanks to its
early stake in Sigma Lithium, STS is likely to attract further attention.
Fortuna
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future
I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
The Ecuador presidential election results
It’s going to take some time to get a definitive result from today’s big vote in Ecuador, but we
now have enough of the fast count to be able to call the most important result. Here is your list
of candidates and, with 85.5% of the fast count tallied, their share of the vote:
 Luisa González 33.13%
 Daniel Noboa: 23.94%
 Christian Zurita: 16.47%
 Jan Topic: 14.63%
 Otto Sonnenholzner 7.12%
 Yaku Pérez: 3.87%
 Xavier Hervas: 0.48%
16

If confirmed (and there’s no reason for this result not to be, as the gaps have been regular all
evening and all the losing candidates have made the right noises, admitting the defeat with
nobody claiming election fraud), that puts Luisa González and Daniel Noboa into the second
round run-off that vote scheduled for October 15th. One positive to report on the day is that
aside from reports of arrests of people trying illegal ways to affect results (e.g. campaigning
outside polling booths, trying to vote multiple times, etc) today has seen no repeat of the
violence and disorder that made this campaign one of the most difficult in recent history. The
relative calm of election day and the way in which all candidates have accepted the results is a
good thing for the battered image of the country.
As for the winners, we begin with the second placed candidate and it’s worth comparing the
results to the voter intention polls taken in the days before the campaign went off the rails with
the assassination of candidate Fernando Villavicencio, whose place was taken by Christian
Zurita. For one example of many, check back to IKN739 and while the poll we quoted that day
got the vote for tonight’s winner Luisa González fairly close (33%), the runner up in today’s
vote Daniel Noboa was nowhere to be seen and had been written off by the pundits. That result
was typical of polls up to two weeks ago, but Noboa still managed to win through and
concentrate the “Not Rafael Correa” vote around him. This evening, while celebrating his run-
off place and the upcoming battle against González, Noboa said that his strong result was due
to 1) hard work campaigning in the provinces and getting his message across, combined with
2) the best showing of any candidate in last weekend’s live TV debate. While the former can be
debated, it’s true that Noboa was generally considered to have win last Sunday’s debate and as
that was always going to be a key factor with the sizeable number of Ecuadorians who tend to
wait until the last minute before deciding their vote, it does make sense.
He son of the Banana magnate Álvaro, who unsuccessfully ran for President himself no fewer
than six times, Daniel Noboa was until this year a member of Congress and has been groomed
by his backers for a run at the presidency for some time. His politics are orthodox right wing
and fairly similar in substance to that of the outgoing President Guillermo Lasso. During the
campaign he won votes on his policy calls for stronger border controls (to stop narcotrafficking
and the foreign troublemakers involved in that scene, often from Colombia) and for a rise in the
minimum wage (because as any good politico knows, it’s the economy, stupid).
As for the Rafael Correa dauphine, Luisa González, her round one win was expected and she
duly delivered, but didn’t manage to reach the 40%+1 line for automatic victory. So she now
goes into the run-off against the well-funded Noboa and we now await to see how the deals
and alliances break down between the winning pair and those that came in behind them. We
should recall that the way Guillermo Lasso came to power was by winning (just) second spoit
behind the Rafael Correa candidate Andrés Arauz (who is the Veep on Luisa’s ticket this time),
then managing to gather round him the “Not Correa” protest vote to beat his opponent in the
run-off. That’s how Noboa and his team will approach this ballotage vote, though it’s not going
to be as easy to rouse the “Never Again Correa” protest vote as we saw earlier this year how
his party made great gains in the municipal and regional elections. Theoretically, nearly all the
Jan Topic votes should fall to Noboa. He should also benefit from the majority of those who
voted for Zurita as well, though the split isn’t as easy to call because a lot of the Zurita support
is in the rural and jungle regions of the Amazon basin, areas not t which give Noboa the math
required to win in round two. However and as stated on many occasions in previous weeks,
perhaps the key player in round two is CONAIE, the indigenous umbrella group and its leader,
Leonidas Iza. We can see some sort of loose alliance forming between CONAIE and Luisa
González around the CONAIE policy points of a moratorium on mining activity in rural zones.
The other factor is today’s low turnout, which saw around 60% of votes cast as that is bound to
go up in the run-off, where a binary option will appeal to a wider swathe of voters (who
expected it to go to a run-off, whatever happened).
Also today we saw the two local referendum votes and here are some early details on those
The Chocó Andino referendum on mining: This is the referendum that decides whether the
17

Chocó Andino region (Sp. “mancomunidad”, literally Commonwealth) in central Ecuador should
place a blanket ban on hard rock mining activities of all types, be they artisanal, formal, metals
or otherwise. In direct terms this vote won’t affect any of the major projects inside Ecuador, as
the Chocó Andino is host to very few projects or even concessions, but the country would
certainly feel the knock-on effect of political risk and negative optics if the world witnesses how
a regional government can ban mining via simple referendum vote.
So to the early count results and while the final numbers will take a few days, there’s no doubt
“Yes We Want to Ban Mining” has beaten “No We Do Not Want To Ban Mining”. Preliminary:
 YES: 67%
 NO: 33%
This is a negative for Ecuador’s mining scene, let there be no doubt.
The Yasuni ITT referendum: Though not directly related to this publication, the other regional
referendum added to the ballot in the relevant region will decide, again in a legally binding
vote, to stop or to continue developing the large oil and gas reserves in the Yasuni ITT block,
another project that’s seen long-term opposition from locals, this time jungle dwelling
indigenous. So with the scene set, these early count results also show a clear result, and while
the final numbers will take a few days, there’s no doubt “Yes We Want to Stop Development of
Yasuni” has beaten “No We Do Not Want To Stop Development of Yasuni”. Preliminary:
 YES: 59%
 NO: 41%
As with the Chocó Andino referendum, this is a legally binding vote in this region and while it
does not affect other zones of the country, it sets up the same kind of precedent that can be
used by other communities or activist groups. These two votes may also affect how the run-off
candidates approach their own campaigns, as the general theme of “ecology” is clearly a net
vote winner.
Bottom line: Put the pieces together tonight and it’s difficult to make a call on who will be the
next President of Ecuador. A lot will depend on deals cut and alliances they may/may not be
formed between now and October 15th and while some are easy to call (e.g. Topic will back
Noboa and cash in on his newfound political heft), Leonidas Iza/CONAIE may still become
kingmaker for Luisa González and if he gets a deal, it’s going to be negative for the mining
industry. On the other hand, the important FDI on the outside looking in, i.e. China, will likely
approve of what it sees at the end of this round one of voting. It will be left with two party
groups with which it is comfortable doing deals. We first consider Daniel Noboa, from the pro-
biz political right wing and under no illusions about the need for economic growth and
investment in the country. Second the Rafael Correa dauphine Luisa González and we know
Correa&Co have no qualms at all about doing deals with China, he did dozens while President
and many of those involved natural resource projects and civil works.
Therefore and with the results now in, The IKN Weekly playbook on Ecuador remains intact. We
are avoiding any of the ecologically or socially controversial projects as they may well be hit by
a moratorium, part of a deal brokered with CONAIE in return for indigenous group support in
round two. However the trade in SolGold (SOLG.to) remains in good stead and is far less likely
to be hit with new bottlenecks; on the contrary, we now believe the likely buyers of the project,
China Inc, will be more comfortable with the political backdrop and ready to make a move.
Newmont (NEM) and Mexico
When the Peñasquito strike over salaried and benefits started on June 7th this year, we picked
up the story (like one does) and ran a brief note in this part of IKN734 dated June 11th that
started like this:
, the main union at Newmont’s Peñasquito mine in Mexico announced it was going on
strike, claiming the company was not in compliance with the collective work
18

agreement signed by both sides in 2022. In its official communiqué (copy here (14)) it
claims four clauses of the deal have not been adhered to by the company, as well as
short pay for overtime on specific dates. It also complains that the company has
rejected the union nominations for representatives.
We then went on to note that as regards the strike and the NEM share price, the market
“…doesn’t seem to care and frankly, I think that’s the right call”, later in the same note adding
that. “…NEM is better off allowing the strike action to run, even if it’s for more than a few days,
than give in at the first sign of conflict. This strike will blow over and the disruption to NEM will
be minimal.”
Wrong. We’re now ten weeks into the strike and the two sides remain entrenched and far
apart, with the lockout stopping production and putting Peñasquito, Mexico’s largest precious
metals mining operation, under force majeur. It’s gone on long enough to give lie to my original
call and last week, Newmont’s CEO Tom Palmer seemingly upped the ante in the dispute. He
flew down to Mexico last week to talk with national political leaders and try and sort out the
mess. Here’s how Bloomberg reported on the visit (6):
Newmont Corp., the world’s biggest gold miner, is reviewing its investments in Mexico
with a workers’ strike at the country’s largest bullion mine now in its third month.
Top executives at the Denver-based firm, including chief executive officer Tom Palmer,
traveled to Mexico City this week to meet with senior government officials, imploring
them to help resolve what Palmer called a “very, very disappointing” dispute at the
Penasquito mine.
“This situation is forcing us to critically review our investments here in Mexico,” Palmer
said in a meeting with Penasquito’s operators, posted on the mine’s Facebook page.
“While we want to find a way through this, we are not willing to resolve this at any
cost.”
The mine shuttered in early June when about 2,000 unionized workers downed tools
over a dispute regarding a profit-sharing agreement and alleged contract breaches.
The company has since declared force majeur from the mine and is seeking a
resolution to the dispute in a labor court.
Palmer said he told Labor Minister Marath Bolanos in a meeting that the company is
“not willing to negotiate any additional payment” for the workers’ profit-sharing
agreement — a sticking point in the negotiations.
Besides gold and silver, Penasquito is also a major supplier of zinc and lead.
Palmer’s move puts Mexico’s mining industry under the gaze of a world that’s looking for
reasons to turn its back on any country’s mining sector if they make it too hard to do business.
If NEM, the world’s biggest miner, is ready to “review its Mexico investments” it won’t take
much for the rest of the serious mining companies to do the same. The political risk optics of
this strike suddenly became wider ranging last week and with the potential to hurt any mining
company with exposure to the country. This alone may explain why Minera Alamos dived under
30c last week and then stayed there.
Chile: a cabinet re-shuffle
Last week saw the third full cabinet re-shuffle from President Gabriel Boric of Chile in the space
of less than a year and while we’re not going into the national political ramifications or how the
pundits think it might have changed the leanings and alliances of his creaking coalition
government, it gets space in today’s edition because one of the central issues are the changes
in the Mining Ministry.
Boric accepted the resignations of both Minister of Mining Marcela Hernando and the Vice-
Minister Willy Kracht. The new Minister is Aurora Williams, who served in the same role during
the Michelle Bachelet government 2014 to 2018. Well respected in the sector in both private
and public sectors, Williams’ appointment was greeted with approval by Chile’s main chambers
of mining and she has brought in a Vice-Minister of her own choosing with which to work.
Williams is a safe choice from the political centre and has two areas of expertise that Chile
needs at the moment. Firstly, she is well versed in the country’s lithium sector as it was her
team that set up the first deals to explore and vend new concessions, the ones now bearing
19

fruit and likely to become private/public JVs. Secondly and potentially more urgent on her To-
Do list, while minister in the Bachelet government she successfully dealt with the same type of
debt and cash crunch problems at Codelco that the massive, State-run copper miner is facing
today (though the scary headlines doing the rounds last week about “insolvency” are taking the
drama a little too far). Williams brokered a deal at the time that got Codelco back into
reasonable financial shape and that experience may be put to the test as the government finds
ways to reactivate one of its main sources of tax and revenue funds.
Overall, this is good news for the Chilean mining sector. Outgoing Minister Marcela Hernando
didn’t do a bad job but there comers a time when a President wants to refresh their image and
team in South American democracies and when they do, it’s good to see the outgoing Minister
replaced with someone competent and to the liking of the sector. Meanwhile, it’s also good to
see the back of the ineffective and self-promoting Willy Kracht as Veep Mining, who did nothing
to promote the cause of mining companies in Chile.
Argentina: PASO preliminary results
This table breaks down the main takeaways from last Sunday’s election, with the most
important names and numbers in block:
Party Candidate Total votes Total % Party %
La Libertad
Javier Milei 7,116,352 30.04% 30.04%
Avanza
Juntos por el Patricia Bullrich 4,022,466 16.98%
28.28%
Cambio
Horacio Larreta 2,675,563 11.30%
Unión por la Sergio Massa 5,070,104 21.40%
27.27%
Patria
Juan Grabois 1,390,585 5.87%
source: Argentina CNE website
 Javier Milei was his party’s (“Liberty Advances”) only candidate and “won” the PASO over
30% of voting Argentines choosing him. He was the biggest winner of the night, as most
polls and pundits put him in a tight race with the other main parties. As things turned out,
his 30% wasn’t a massive win but it does wonders for his “electable image” in the country.
 In the Juntos por el Cambio (Together for Change, JxC) alliance, i.e. the orthodox right
wing headed by ex-President Mauricio Macri, there was a fight to decide who would go
forward and Patricia Bullich won it (and fairly easily, too). Between them, their party
garnered 28.28% of votes. Bullrich is now the main opposition to Milei in the Presidential
vote come October and all signs point to these two going into the second round run-off in
November.
 The biggest loser on the day was Sergio Massi of Unión por la Patria (Union for the
Fatherland, UPP), the current government alliance party, even though Massa was the second
most-voted individual. Two fails to report here, firstly he couldn’t get his party into the top
two and secondly because even though he was “the consensus candidate” for the
government, his unfancied opponent from the left wing of this alliance, Juan Grabois, picked
up some sort of minor protest vote against Massa from inside his party. Grabois’s 5.87%
was more than most expected. Total them up and the 27.27% total isn’t so far behind
second (or even first), but the reality it represents an uphill struggle for the incumbent
government.
The other important stat from last Sunday was voter turnout, which at 69% for what’s
supposed to be an obligatory vote, was lower than in previous years. That, along with the
general consensus that Milei’s victory on the straight count was more about Argentina’s
population rejecting the thought of “the political class” and ready to vote for an outsider and a
breath of fresh air, sets the scene for what we’ll see in the big votes later this year. Assuming
the eventual presidential election garners its normal level of support, the likely beneficiary
would be the “stop Milei” vote from people who think his plans too wild and unstable. This isn’t
the day to start trying to predict the outcome of any run-off vote in November and we need to
20

take first things first, but with a view to the October first round it’s probably going to be a
tighter result than the current blast of Milei Love would have you believe and Patricia Bullich in
particular will fancy her chances of becoming the next President. We also need to note that
while Milei may win the race and become President, if he does so he’d have virtually zero
backing from a Congress that would be packed with Bullrich or Massa seats. It’s one thing
listening to his declarations of a radical shake-up in how Argentina works, quite another to get
those to happen even if he gets the big job. All that’s for another day however, for us and for
the moment we can state with confidence that either a Bullrich or a Milei presidency would be
welcomed by the country’s mining industry.
Meanwhile, the English speaking North has suddenly discovered Javier Milei, his rather bizarre
look, his eclectic history and above all, the plans he has to shake up the Argentine political
establishment (or the “castes” as he puts it) with a swathe of radical measures that would
include closing the Central Bank and dollarizing the economy. He’s certainly a larger than life
character and though this desk has followed his progress over the years and particularly in
2023, we’re not going to delve too deeply into the subject because for one thing it would take a
long time to cover all the angles (both personal and party political) and for another, more
importantly if he makes it to the presidency he’s not going to be bad for the mining sector per
se (we’ll see how his macro economic plans work out later, though).
Finally and separately in Argentina mining news, away from the headlines made by the PAAO
primaries and its result, last week in the province of Salta the upper house of Senators in the
regional parliament passed a law (7) project that declared “necessary and urgent” that the
province update its mining royalty laws in order to capture more than the 3% gross proceeds
royalty that goes to the province from mining operations. We don’t know what the Senate plans
to replace that 3% number with yet, but assuming they pass a new royalty law there are plenty
of mining operations that would be affected, e.g. the Fortuna Silver (FSM) Lindero gold mine in
the region and a recent purchase by this desk (of course).
Market Watching
Western Exploration (WEX.v) 2q23 financials
Late last week saw our faltering new exploreco trade, Western Exploration (WEX.v) file its 2q23
financials and MD&A and while there’s not much to report so far, we can at least give its
financials the once-over before the drill assay newsflow from its flagship Aura project, NV USA,
begins.
We’ve seen two main issues at WEX since opening this trade. Well in fact that’s three, because
this…
…is the biggest pain of all. WEX has seen relentless selling since just before it opened its
placement to raise up to C$5.65m in May.
21

That brings up the second issue, one of optics as selling continued after the placement closed
in June, raising C$4.55m or U$3.42m in gross proceeds and just over U$3.15m in net proceeds.
That raising was a little on the thin side and didn’t impress the market, but it’s still adequate for
its needs in 2023.
Thirdly and probably the biggest thorn in the side of our painful trade to date, WEX had to wait
and wait for the permits to be awarded for its first round of exploration drilling. They’ve now
been received and on August 10th WEX announced that the drills are now turning on the first
2,000m getting put into Aura, but the delay means all momentum was lost and WEX recently
has been caught as a victim of this summer lull to beat them all.
The shortfall in financing and delay to the start of drilling means our forecast financials haven’t
matched reality over the last two quarters (i.e. since we last checked the charts), but from now
we should see WEX roll out it somewhat delayed exploration and development of Aura. We
therefore adjust accordingly, starting with the assets and liabilities charts:
WEX.v: Assets
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
The bump in cash in 2q23 is the placement close and, as this exploration-stage player will
expense its drilling, assets should drop as the cash is burned. Meanwhile over on the liabilities
sheet everything is in near-optimum order and there’s every reason to expect WEX to keep
things that way. Zero issues so let’s check on the cash burn via these charts below before
moving to the expected use of funds:
Cash at U$3.079m (it reports in US Dollars, we remind readers) should drop as the drills turn.
As for working capital, we see how that flatlined for three long quarters as the company dealt
with the permit delays but with funds now in, we want them to burn that down and return good
results, those should start rolling out from mid-September as long as the assay labs turn things
around at a reasonable rate.
As for expenditures (below left), we again see how burn was mostly background only for three
quarters and G&A the only real corporate expense. That should drop going forward now that
most of the lawyering on its re-start IPO and then placement is behind us. We now want to see
the money aimed at the drillbit and assume U$1m spent in the current quarter, then U$1.5m in
22
12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
$m fixed WEX.v: Liabilities per qtr
other current 4
cash 3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
source: company filings
12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
LT liabs
current liabs
WEX.v: Cash treasury per qtr
91.0
694.5
168.3 241.3
331.1 662.1
747.0
970.3
2.2 5.1
6
5.5
5
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5 2
1.5
1
0.5
0
12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
6 WEX.v: Working Capital per qtr
5.5
5
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5 2
1.5
1
0.5
0
12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
source company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim

4q23. You’ll probably see that our expected burn for the next two quarters is more than the
current treasury can handle, but we expect WEX to pay at least some of its bills with share-
based payments (e.g. the drillers) and assume the share count leaves 2023 at 35m (below
right)
WEX.v: Admin expenses
3.25
3
2.75
2.5
2.25
2
1.75
1.5 1.25 1
0.75
0.5
0.25
0
Currently there are 34.45m shares out, with a cool 58% of those held by Golkonda LLC, i.e. the
fund controlled by the Schlumberger family (of oil service fame). Aside those, 15.8% of shares
are owned by Agnico Eagle (optioners of the concessions) and that means some 74% of sahre
out are kept away from open float. That is, of course, a double-edged sword as we all like to
report deep-pocketed strong-hand sponsors of an exploreco, but at the same time it makes
trading and share volume liquidity more complicated.
Bottom line: We first featured thisstock in IKN725, April 9th 2023 and the main fundies report
“Western Exploration Inc. (WEX.v): A buy and hold for 2023/2024”. At the time we expected
the funding placement to happen sooner than it did in May, the close to happen sooner than
June and the placement to raise more than the C$4.55 that it did, we also expected drilled to
turn sooner and by now we should have had the results back from the first programmed
rounds. None of that happened as expected and while we’re now into drilling, the delay cost
WEX dearly in terms of momentum and interest. Couple that with the poor state of the market
for junior miners and here we are, at a deeply discounted level I didn’t expect at all, or perhaps
if the drills had returned dusters. As a result and the lack of pzazz for this new name, we’ve
recently dropped its Stocks to Follow line into the Speculative category and it will stay there
until it shows a pulse and starts to move back up.
In the meantime, we can at least report that its financial position is reasonable and there’s
more than enough funding to get on and complete a few of those dearly desired drill holes. So
with assay returns expected next month and a company now on track (better late than never)
I’ll stick to my word and hold through this year, though we’ll see how it gets into 2024 before
decided whether to insist on the trade. What WEX needs, above all, is a catalyst and with
assays on the way, it has the means to deliver its own as long as the market approves. Not a
happy holder, but holding all the same and giving the team its chance.
Argonaut Gold (AR.to) redux
In “Argonaut Gold (AR.to): Better but still high risk” last weekend, we ran the numbers on the
troubled AR.to and decided that while it may be in for better times ahead thanks to Magino,
there is still plenty of risk in the trade due to:
 Magino execution: AR has missed too many times on projects and build-outs to trust in their
word, I’m in strict “show me” mode until we get real shows on production, or maybe even
the declaration of commercial production
 Likelihood of more share dilution: Too many arrows pointing in the same direction, that }Ar
is going to raise more cash via another dulitive share placement
 Financial debt: It’s one thing to face potential delays, another when (previously refi’d) debt
repayments are just round the corner and there’s existential risk to the balance sheet items,
not just the potential of a tight financial period.
23
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
C$m WEX.v: Shares Out
other exp
G&A
other exp
Land
Geological
drilling
source: company filings
534.03 406.03 766.03 766.03 184.13 184.13 054.43 54.43 53
40
35
30
25
20 15
10
5
0
12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
source: company filings
serahs
fo snoillim

That was all in response to a strong Friday for the share price, so you’d expect more where that
came from if the stock were the type of slam
dunk that it’s made out to be by its more
vociferous proponents. Instead, AR traded flat on
low volume and the day of share price fun was
just that, a day. Now for sure trading flat (bar a
penny) on a week during which GDX dropped
6.8% and GDXJ 6.0% is better than most, but if
we take a step back (right), it’s also clear AR
hasn’t shown anything that could be construed
as its own momentum, to break away from the
pack. It remains high risk/high reward and for
this desk, Wesdome (WDO.to, see Producer
Basket above) is a better option for anyone
looking to speculate on Canadian gold producers
in a gold rebound. Same potential reward, far less downside risk.
A SilverCrest (SILV) (SIL.to) analysis will happen
Finally, a quick note to say that I haven’t forgotten about the plans to cover and analyse
SilverCrest Metals (SILV) (SIL.to) in light of its recent share price volatility and the opportunity
it may offer as a trade vehicle for those readers looking for silver exposure. This two-month
chart of SILV compared to the main silver producers’ ETF (SIL) shows what we’ve seen in
recent weeks and the main influences to its share price:
The note on SILV got bumped last week to make room for the (more attractive, in my opinion)
opportunity afforded by Fortuna Silver (FSM) (FVI.to) and since then, I’ve continued to play
about with the SILV model, but there doesn’t seem to be any need to rush to a conclusion in
this current market about what is, essentially, a silver trade and as such, I’m going to hum and
hah a little longer, perhaps even wait for the 43-101 compliant Technical Report to make it to
SEDAR and getting the mine plan details and breakdown on the quarters to come first.
Conclusion
IKN744 is done, we end with some bullet points:
 One always goes into an August knowing that the main Northern playtime month is
going to see a quieter market, but the case of Doldrums we’ve had in the mining world
is the worst for many years. Even in the painful drudge years of 2013 to 2015 it wasn’t
like this.
24

 That, along with the way small retail seems to be throwing in the towel and their
modest sized sales whacking stock prices left, right and centre, along with a couple
more classic tells of a bottom, got me to wake up and put more into the market than
I’ve had in quite a while. The vehicle is Fortuna Silver (FSM), the reasons were laid out
last week and it won’t take much to see this reverse and go higher. It could even do it
at the current gold price, as long as its Q3 goes to plan.
 The best thing about today’s Ecuador election the lack of news about any shootings or
further violence, event though there were reports of death threats against candidates.
The other good thing is that two groups willing to make mining a part of the country’s
future have made it into the second round, the only issue is on the pacts that might
happen with anti-mining parties. With the Chocó Andino referendum result sending its
own message to Luisa González in particular, I’d definitely rather be in a development
play in a zone welcomed by communities such as Lundin Gold at Fruta del Norte or
SolGold at Cascabel, than an outlaying exploreco surrounded by anti-mining
communities such as Solaris at Warintza, or Dundee at Loma Larga, or Atico at Toachi,
to name but three.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stock is Minera Alamos (MAI.v). Flash
updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best wishes, Mark
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://twitter.com/Mark_IKN/status/1691826141944758513
(2) https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/wall-street-journal-fed-insider-timiraos-expects-higher-fed-neutral-rate-ahead-
20230820/
(3) https://mene.com/world-of-mene/investor-relations/mene-q2-2023
(4) https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2023/07/20/2708327/0/en/Men%C4%93-Inc-Announces-Change-in-
CFO.html
(5) https://thecse.com/en/listings/mining/minera-irl-limited
(6) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-18/newmont-reviewing-mexico-investments-as-worker-strike-
drags-on#xj4y7vzkg
(7) https://www.saltacomparativa.com.ar/noticias/legislativas-2/senadores-piden-que-salta-mejore-las-regalias-de-la-
mineria-68847
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2022
Closed in 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
25

Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
Goldshore Res GSHR.v Nov'22 C$0.18 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 88.9% Quick profit taken
Palamina Corp PA.v Dec'22 C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.08 -72.9% Clear-out of underperformer
Pure Gold PGM.h Dec'22 C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.015 -89.3% tiny trade on vh risk, went Ch11
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Set-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
26

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
27

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
28