IKN #741Premium

The IKN Weekly
Week 741, July 30th 2023
Contents
This Week: Trade heads-up, In Today’s Edition, Another brief intro.
Fundamental Analysis: Buying Contango ORE (CTGO).
Stocks to Follow: Contango ORE (CTGO), Goldshore Resources (GSHR.v), Faraday Copper
(FDY.to), Marimaca Copper (MARI.to), Minera IRL (MIRL.cse), OreCap (OCI.v)
Copper Basket: Overview, Element 29 (ECU.v), Western Copper & Gold (WRN) (WRN.to).
Producer Basket: Overview, Newmont and Newcrest (NEM) (NCM), Alamos Gold (AGI)
(AGI.to), Eldorado Gold (EGO) (ELD.to).
TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Aurelius Minerals (AUL.v).
Regional Politics: Ecuador: Voter intention tendency, Ecuador: Activists continue to use
mining as a campaign issue, Colombia: A dive into the swamp, Argentina: Lefties love mining
too, Burkina Faso political risk.
Market Watching: Provenance Gold (PAU.v) redux, New Gold (NGD): No reason to own,
SilverCrest Metals (SILV) (SIL.to) and an Updated Technical Report.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
Trade heads-up
I’m still not particularly flush for cash, but there’s enough room to open a position with a
reasonable amount of shares and the window of opportunity thrown open by last week’s
placement means it’s now or never. I am a buyer of Contango ORE (CTGO) this coming week,
see the main fundies section for more.
In Today’s Edition
 Today’s main event has been a long time coming. After over a year and a half of careful
tracking, we’re finally pulling the trigger buying some shares in Contango ORE (CTGO)
and taking advantage of the window of opportunity brought by last week’s equity
placement. Good to get some more quality gold developer shares on board.
 We don’t tend to do deeper analysis and coverage of larger market cap PM stocks, but
last week saw Q2 financials from three interesting Tier 2 producers and as such, we run
a few (not many) charts and thoughts on all of them. A great quarter from Alamos Gold
(AGI) and an underrated quarter from Eldorado Gold (EGO) are in today’s Producer
Basket, while another mediocre result from New Gold (NGD) gets three charts and a
thumbs-down in the Market Watching section.
 Today’s Regional Politics covers the bombshell about the arrest of Colombian President
Gustavo Petro’s son this weekend, also keeps an eye on the Ecuador election as that
gets to the sharp end of proceedings.
 Other things, too. There are always other things.
Another brief intro
It could be due to the Doldrums, of summer, or perhaps due to the lack of surprises coming
from the FOMC last week, but I don’t feel there’s much to say about the macro scene at the
1

moment. So, for the third week running, I’m going to keep the intro section to a bare minimum
and only mention that the big market moment in the week ahead comes on Friday, when the
US BLS publishes its Employment Report for the month of July. Expectations are for a NFP
number of +184k and an unchanged headline rate of 3.6%. Any big deviance from that may
affect the price of gold, but if not we’re going to enter August in the same way we left July,
with a market on autopilot and the metals holding up, while miners suffer from sector ennui
and slowly sell down. But I can tell you my love for miners will still be strong after the boys of
summer have gone. Roll on Jackson Hole. Roll on Labor Day.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Buying Contango ORE (CTGO)
Better is the end of a thing than its beginning,
and the patient in spirit is better than the proud in spirit.
Ecclesiastes 7:8 (ESV)
Preamble
It’s taken over a year and a half to get to this moment, but thanks to the events of last week
the window of buying opportunity we’re been looking for has finally arrived. The time is right,
the price is right and what’s more, its trading has improved to the point where the stock is no
longer on “trade by appointment” levels of volumes. Therefore, we’re buyers of Contango ORE
(CTGO), the development stage junior headed up by Rick Van Nieuwenhuyse and the rest of
today’s main fundies section lays out the reasoning:
Before we dive in, it’s worth a walk down Memory Lane to consider just how long CTGO has
been on the radar. We first expressed its interest in CTGO back in November 2021, just before
it was moved from a US OTC-only stock to its current full board USA ticker. Following that in
2022, CTGO got the occasional mention in editions of The IKN Weekly as its plans and financing
for its main Manh Choh project solidified, but always in “look don’t touch” mode. For example,
in IKN696, dated September 18th 2022 and the note “Contango Ore (CTGO): Why I am still
watching without buying” isn’t a difficult headline to decipher. Moving on and CTGO finally
made the Stocks to Follow Watch List in early December last year in IKN707 and then the next
week in IKN708 and the main fundies note “Running the numbers on Contango Ore (CTGO)”.
That note concentrated on Manh Choh, mentioned Lucky Shot in passing with some very basic
numbers and finished the analysis with this paragraph:
“There’s a lot to like about CTGO, but with a small and illiquid share count and a
market cap of U$160m, there’s a lot of equity value that could be dissolved by an
expensive deal to finance its 30% of Manh Choh. Therefore and until we know the
details of that financing, CTGO will be in the Watch List though be clear, it’s not on the
table below just for fun and as long at Contango Ore can raise its required capital on
good terms, don’t be surprised when your author becomes an owner of some of these
shares in 2023.”
Since then we’ve seen several advances in the story, including the financing package for Manh
Choh (which we like), the inclusion of CTGO on the US Russell 3000and Russell Microcap
Indexes, as well as the publication of the first 43-101 compliant technical report and resource
for Lucky Shot. But that still didn’t get us to bite and even as recently as IKN736 dated June
25th, five weeks ago, we were sitting on the sidelines and waiting for the right spot:
“The value-add at CTGO will be Lucky Shot and that’s a good little project in the
making, but it’s going to take a few years to get into production and long before then,
this year in fact, the company plans to raise capital to fund exploration and resource
development. CTGO is on the Watch List as it offers quality, low risk gold mine that’s
not so far away from producing and immediately throwing off significant free cash
flow. But it’s only on a Watch List and not a personal holding because the price has to
be right for an entry and I’m looking for a bargain. U$24/share isn’t bad, but it’s still
not cheap enough to tempt me in.”
2

Then came the news on July 21st of the long-awaited equity placement, mentioned quickly last
weekend. We then found out on Monday that CTGO was aiming to raise a cool U$30m and they
didn’t hang around, as it took just a couple of days before this NR was published (1):
HOUSTON--Contango ORE, Inc. (“Contango,” “CORE” or the “Company”) (NYSE
American: CTGO), today announced the pricing of its previously announced
underwritten public offering (the “Offering”) of 1,600,000 shares of its common stock at
a public offering price of $19.00 per share. Gross proceeds from the Offering are
expected to be $30.4 million before deducting underwriting discounts, commissions,
and estimated Offering expenses. In addition, Contango has granted the underwriters
a 30-day option to purchase up to an additional 240,000 shares of common stock.
Due to the U$19 stock placement, the CTGO
share price dived off a cliff compared to this
time last weekend and is down 29.2% week-
over-week. That puts us in the right price
frame for a retail grunt such as I. Also
importantly, we’ve seen a big uptick in
traded volume with the advent of this
placement. As such and as noted in this
price chart, we finally have the right combo
of right price, right volume and right time to
position in the stock as it moves into
production at Manh Choh and also brings
Lucky Shot out of mothballs and looks to
expand its resource and mining potential. A
long wait, but hopefully worth it.
The rest of today’s note
That’s the preamble done, now to lay out the three things we’re doing in today’s note:
 Updating financials. With the significant recent changes, we adjust and tweak our treacking
charts to show the current financial state of play and show how we see cash flowing in the
key period between today and first production from Manh Choh. After that, we expect
treasury to be able to look after itself.
 Updating our Manh Choh model. We’re still a year or so from first production and revenues
so our model is only going to be ballpark, but we add new information to the model run in
IKN708 dated December 11th and put a dollar value on CTGO at Manh Choh.
 Begin modelling Lucky Shot. Early days still and this isn’t going to be a sophisticated model,
but the recent 43-101 compliant Technical Report gives us a little more to go on and we can
at least narrow down criteria and get a better understanding of strategy going forward. This
is set to become the price driver at CTGO and at this stage, begins to add significant
speculative upside to the solid financials offered by Manh Choh.
Once that’s done we’ll tie the strings together, write a conclusion and the reasons why I’m
going to be long this stock by this time next weekend, so if you don’t want to read all the
details, fair enough.
Updating financials: To begin, we run the corporate structure topbox:
Shares out: 9.46m
Options: 0.1m (U$14.50 strike)
Warrants: 0.43m (mostly U$30.00 strike)
Fully diluted: 9.99m
Current share price: U$18.75
Market Cap: U$177.38m
Approx cash per S/O: U$5.30
All prices are in US Dollars unless stated.
3

This weekend’s U$18.75 share price gives a pro-rata market cap of U$177.4m, assuming as we
do that the 240,000 overallotment shares in the
recently closed placement are also taken up. The
evolution of the share count looks like this (right)
and as CTGO is now fully funded via debt and
equity for its 30% of Manh Choh, as well as fully
funded for anything it wants to do at Lucky Shot
or its other early stage exploration stage projects,
we assume the share count is going to remain
where it is for the foreseeable future, probably
until the convertible debentures held by Queen’s
Road Capital (QRC.to) mature. The only change
we expect is a small addition of around 3,000 to
3,500 shares per quarter as the minor share
portion of interest paid to QRC on its CD.
We previously ran with just four financial tracker charts to keep tabs on CTGO (plus the share
count chart above), that does not change today as the balance sheet is what matters at this
point. What we want to see is 1) enough cash for CTGO to do what it wants before the money
starts flowing from Manh Choh late next year and 2) the timely extinguishing of financial debt
once revenues arrive. In this respect, things are the same as before but the recently closed
placement also means CTGO has more treasury now and will spend at a faster clip, as Lucky
Shot gets drilled and developed. Finally, please note before we dive in that we presume the
240,000 overallotment currently open is fully taken and the assumed total U$34.96m in gross
proceeds from the entire 1.84m shares sold at U$19 becomes U$32m in net for the company (it
may be closer to U$33m, but building in conservatism pays in these models).
The assets chart (below left) doesn’t change much, aside from the obvious bulge in treasury
thanks to the influx of cash. We assume CTGO does some drilling at Lucky Shot in the latter
part of 2023, closes down for the winter and then gets truly busy as from the spring of 2024.
By that point we’ll be on the cusp of production at Manh Choh and as the chart indicates, CTGO
will have a comfortable cushion of cash between first production and the (potentially long) wait
for the first paycheck for its 30% of revenues. We also assume its spends the whole of its
$&5m debt facility on its pro rata part of the build-out at Manh Choh, which leads us to the
liabilities chart (below right).
CTGO: Assets, per qtr
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
That has barely changed since its last airing on these pages. We assume financial debt peaks in
mid 2024 at the point it has drawn all its debt facility with Macquarie & co and before the
revenues start to flow. When they do, the staged payments should be comfortably covered with
cash to spare and come end 2026, all paid down as well as the convertible debt with QRC
arriving at maturity. At that point, CTGO will be debt free in real terms.
4
12_nuj 12_pes 12_ced 22_ram 22_nuj 22_pes 22_ced 32_ram tse32_nuj tse32_pes tse32_ced tse42_ram tse42_nuj
U$m CTGO: Liabilities, per qtr
100
fixed 90
other current 80
cash 70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
source: company filings/IKN ests
12_ced 22_ram 22_nuj 22_pes 22_ced 32_ram tse32_nuj tse32_pes tse32_ced tse42_ram tse42_nuj 42.pes 42.ced 52.ram 52.nuj 52.pes 52.ced 62.ram 62.nuj 62.pes 62.ced
CTGO: Shares out (m)
U$m
LT liabs
current liabs
source: CTGO filings/IKN ests
18.6 57.6 77.6 87.6 01.7 13.7 13.7
64.9 64.9 64.9 74.9
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
12_ced 22_ram 22_nuj 22_pes 22_ced 32_ram tse32_nuj tse32_pes tse32_ced tse42_ram tse42_nuj
source: company filings, IKN ests

The liabilities chart is the only one we project further out, to show CTGO covers its obligations
with relative ease as long as Manh Choh comes online as planned. For the other charts today,
including these two below that detail liquidity, we keep to the neaer term and the period CTGO
needs to cover before Manh Choh starts operations. As the corporate strategy is now to develop
and drill at Lucky Shot at the same time, we need to check that treasury covers eventualities
and with the recent successful closing of the U$30.4m placement (we assume U$34.96m gross
proceeds and U$32m net), they really do have all the money they’ll ever need. Indeed, we can
consider Lucky Shot as a “full y funded junior” in its own right and its $30m or so earmarked for
development is likely to take it through 2024 and 2025, perhaps even into 2026.
55 CTGO: Cash treasury per qtr
50
45
40
35
30 25
20
15
10
5
0
The bottom line to the financials: I was somewhat surprised to see CTGO aiming to raise
U$30m in last Monday’s NR after its CEO RvN had told me previously they would need around
U$10m to get the ball rolling at Lucky Shot, but the fast and successful closing indicates there
were investors waiting to move in at this price and with coffers now full, we aren’t going to see
CTGO go back to market for a long time, perhaps not until they raise the capex to build and
start producing at Lucky Shot (and even then, Manh Choh revenues may end up funding things
organically). The company has taken advantage of interest and overfilled at this price and
considering the state of the markets, that’s a good idea.
Updating Manh Choh: Our model for Manh Choh is also tweaked rather than changed since its
last showing and as a result, we refer you back to previous analyses (and if you’re new and
want copies, you know my mail address). We therefore continue to assume the production
criteria as laid out by the Peak JV, (70% Kinross 30% CTGO) of a 4.5 year mine life with
processing at the Kinross Fort Knox mine at the grades and tonnages of before, that ends with
CTGO receiving attributable production of 67,500 oz gold per year or 16,875 oz gold per quarter
when filling operational after a brief commissioning period:
Our model then applies that production to three assumed average gold prices to show what
baseline (U$1,800/oz), real world (U$2,000/oz) and upside case (U$2,200/oz) gross revenues
we can expect for CTGO:
5
12_ced 22_ram 22_nuj 22_pes 22_ced 32_ram tse32_nuj tse32_pes tse32_ced tse42_ram tse42_nuj
source: company filings/IKN ests
srallod
fo
snoillim
CTGO: Working Capital per qtr
909.61
157.8
472.22
661.61
704.8
545.3
2.31
2.84 7.64 7.34
2.63
55
50
45
40 35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
12_ced 22_ram 22_nuj 22_pes 22_ced 32_ram tse32_nuj tse32_pes tse32_ced tse42_ram tse42_nuj
U$m
source company filings/IKN ests
CTGO: Model attributable GEO production, per qtr
0002 0008 00031
57861 57861 57861 57861 57861 57861 57861 57861
20000
18000
16000
14000
12000
10000
8000 6000 4000
2000
0
42.nuj 42.pes 42.ced 52.ram 52.nuj 52.pes 52.ced 62.ram 62.nuj 62.pes 62.ced
CTGO: Model attributable GEO prod, per annum Oz Au
source: IKN ests from CTGO data
00032
00576 00576 00576 00576
Oz Au
80000
70000
60000
50000
40000 30000
20000
10000
0
2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
source: IKN ests from CTGO data

CTGO: Model gross revs at three gold prices, per annum
6
9.24 0.64 1.94
0.621 0.531 0.441 0.621 0.531 0.441 0.621 0.531 0.441 0.621 0.531 0.441
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
3202 4202 5202 6202 7202 8202
U$m
at $1,800
at $2,000
at $2,200
source: IKN calcs from CTGO data
Up to this point, there’s zero change in our model but we now reach the first adjustment as we
now know projected AISC for the CTGO ounces, as agreed between Kinross and CTGO, is slated
at U$1,166/oz (they pay slightly more than Kinross, which benefits from the economies of
owning Fort Knox). With this in mind, out Mine Operating Income for CTGO has been lowered
slightly for the three model gold prices, as seen here below:
CTGO: Model Mine Op Income at three gold prices,
per annum
3.71 3.02 4.32
6.05
7.95
7.86
6.05
7.95
7.86
6.05
7.95
7.86
6.05
7.95
7.86
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
3202 4202 5202 6202 7202 8202
U$m
at $1,800
at $2,000
at $2,200
source: IKN calcs from CTGO data
Then we need to back out the financials paid by CTGO, that mean 2024 will be little more than
breakeven at the three model prices, then cash starts to flow nicely in 2025 and the last two
years are the best ones, unencumbered at this point by debt.
U$m CTGO: Net revenues at three Au prices, per annum
90
80
70 at $1800 68.7 68.7
at $2000
60 at $2200 59.7 59.7
50 50.6 50.6
40 35.6 38.4
30 26.6 29.4
20 17.5 20.3
10 7.1
0 ---222...999
04..90
-10 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
source: IKN calcs from CTGO data
The second major adjustment is to the share count, whish is now assumed at just under 9.5m
until end 2026 and then moves to 11.7m as the QRC convertibles are made whole (the strike on
those is U$30 and that looks highly likely to be beaten again by this time). As a result, we
expect these net revenues per share per annum at the three model prices
CTGO: Model net revs per share, per annum
13.0- 13.0- 13.0- 01.0 34.0 57.0 58.1 08.2 57.3 47.1 15.2 82.3 33.4 01.5
78.5
33.4 01.5
78.5
11
10
9 at $1800
8 at $2000
7 at $2200
6
5
4
3 2
1
0
-1
2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
source: IKN calcs from CTGO data

For context, add up the bars and you get:
 At U$1,800/oz gold, CTGO earns U$12.03 per share
 At U$2,000/oz gold, CTGO earns U$15.63 per share
 At U$2,200/oz gold, CTGO earns U$19.23 per share
Compare those cash earnings totals over the next five years to the current share price of
U$18.75 for the necessary context of this investment. This basic valuation of Manh Choh shows
a gap between what we expect it to do for CTGO on a per share basis and the price at which
those shares currently trade. Personally speaking, I’m looking at the “average $2k” line as my
yardstick. This begs the obvious question; Why like CTGO at its current share price? For that,
three bullet points:
 Current treasury: Assuming that overallotment closes fully filled, the cash component all-but
covers the shortfall. Yes of course CTGO will spend the next two or three years burning that
down, but the whole point of exploration is to add value to assets via the drillbit and regarding
that, the company has a highly prospective place at which to spend its money: Lucky Shot
 Lucky Shot: As we’re about to see, there’s a high likelihood of this historic mine becoming
another producer under CTGO. It’s been through several different owners since closing for
business in the 1940s, but it’s taken until CTGO to get it into the hands of the right sized
company with adequate treasury to invest in the drillbit and develop the orebody.
 Extended mine life at/around Manh Choh: The current mine plan is predicated on the known
high grade resource at Manh Choh, but the zone is prospective and once in operation, the
sunk costs may allow lower grade material to be shipped to Fort Knox to extend mine life.
Clearly, every extra year that’s bolted onto a short 4 ½ year mine life makes a big difference
to corporate economics even at minority 30% ownership, but CTGO may also benefit from the
exploration and development of its 100% owned concessions located contiguous to and
nearby Manh Choh.
About Lucky Shot: We now turn our attention to the project that has been in the background to
date but now promises to take a leading role at CTGO, as Manh Choh gets developed by its
partner and the company is now funded for action on its own 100% held properties. Thanks to
the May 2023 Technical Report on Lucky Shot, we now know a lot more about the property.
Discovered in 1918 (the report includes the anecdotal reason for its name, a fun story) and in
operation until closed down in 2942 by the US War Act, this is one of the key passages from the
mine history:
“The Lucky Shot Mine produced a reported 252,000 oz from 169,000 tons of
free-milling ore, indicating an average head grade of 40 g/t (1.6 oz/tonne),
with additional minor production from the Coleman and War Baby mines
(Harlan, et al., 2017 and Stoll, 1997).”
One of the insights from that short paragraph is that Lucky Shot was a profitable and
productive mine, but the combination of the high average grade and the location of the main
production on site offers us extra information when we consider the current resource:
7

The newly defined resource isn’t that big at the moment, with just over 130k oz gold defined in
all categories. One of the primary reasons CTGO took over this asset was due to the team’s firm
belief they can define at least half a million ounces of high grade underground gold via resource
development and drilling. Instead please note the location of the highest grade ounces, as the
Coleman vein runs an indicated resource of 190,092 metric tonnes grading 15.6 g/t. As we
know that historical mining concentrated on the Lucky Shot vein and grades ran at an average
of 40 g/t in those historical times, it stands to reason that Coleman was only lightly mined
because back then, the miners were concentrating on the highest grade rock available to them.
While those 40g/t ounces are now gone and would have made an impressive difference to
today’s resource, what matters in 2023 is that there’s 15.6 g/t material defined in a vein system
that has only seen a moderate amount of historical development.
These diagrams taken from the 43-101 report show the location of the main targets, the
Coleman and the Lucky Shot vein. The distance between the two gives another clue as to why
the old-timers mainly mined at Lucky Shot and left the comparatively low grading Coleman
alone (if 15g muck can be called that). It also suggests the potential strike length if these veins
are connected, which is a distinct possibility according to the team
This brings up another point, that of the mesothermal nature of this quartz vein. Mesothermal
quartz veins are highly prized in precious metals mining because of their tendency to stretch
over long strike lengths with little variation and the likelihood that they continue at vertical
depth with the same type of grades. Put these clues together and we can see why RvN and his
team are so keen on this mine, closed down by law during WW2 and with no formal mining
since that point.
CTGO made no secret about its plans to raise capital and start the drilling and development of
Lucky Shot before Manh Choh was built out and in operation, which is where last week’s U$30m
financing comes in. The quick closure means CTGO can now get to work and start its next
round of drilling, likely to be a mix of infill to increase resource confidence in certain zones of
the known mineralization as well as step-out drilling to chase the veins along and down strike
and increase the tonnage and ounces. We expected them to raise around $10m, in the end
they’ve filled treasury with $30m and that allows them the luxury of a more aggressive drill
program as well as planning further into the future, as the cash that starts to flow from Manh
Choh will allow them to spend treasury as quickly as the drillbit allows at Lucky Shot.
8

With the placement done and the Manh Choh build-out in the hands of 70% owner/operator
Kinross (CTGO is now very much the passive partner and only needs to fund its 30% of the
capex, fully funded by the Macquarie loan), we should expect Lucky Shot to take a protagonist
role at CTGO going forward. The team has the money, the time and high expectations for the
property and it’s bound to offer a steady flow of news on drill results in 2023 and 2024 and
eventually, a resource update. It’s not a project that will be hurried however, and previous
conversations with RvN mentioned five year development timelines in order to define as many
new ounces as possible (first target 0.5m oz, but more as possible of course) before a
construction decision is made. That means CTGO has the time of Manh Choh’s current mine life
to bring Lucky Shot forward and invest its profits.
Modelling Lucky Shot: Therefore and strategically, we see a company that is going to make
good money at Manh Choh with the intention of parlaying by investing in its next project. That
sounds fine and there’s no doubt that a high grade mine with plenty of exploration upside and a
history of profitable operations makes for a good project, but what could it mean to the share
price. For that, we’re going to take a first pass stab at turning rocks into money and running
some basic financials on what we could imagine to be an eventual operation at Lucky Shot. We
assume the following:
 CTGO drills and develops the resource to 500,000 oz gold at an average of 15g/t. This
may seem overly optimistic at other projects but the under-explored mesothermal
quartz veining at Lucky Shot, as well as its historic production parameters, allows us to
suppose such a ballpark is attainable.
 It then runs a 500tpd mine on the property, which processes at 95% recoveries. We
also get a small by-product kicker from the contained silver (it’s not much)
 Operating costs are likely to be low on a per ounce basis for such high grading rocks,
so we pitch in the low end of U$700/oz (NB: this is NOT AISC, which would probably
come in around $850/oz)
 There are several NSR and other State and privately held royalties on the property,
which add up to around 15% aggregate. We assume they stay fully in place and none
are bought out.
 CTGO stays at the likely end-2026 total of 11.7m shares outstanding.
We then sell the produced ounces at between U$1,700/oz and U$2,200/oz according to this
table:
CTGO: Lucky Shot average year operating parameters
Price deck U$1.7k/oz Au U$1.9k/oz Au U$2.0k/oz Au U$2.2k/oz Au
Tonnes per year 180,000 180,000 180,000 180,000
Avg grade (g/t Au) 15 15 15 15
Au prod oz (95% rec) 82,476 82,476 82,476 82,476
gross Au rev 140.2 156.7 165.0 181.4
total sales 119.3 133.4 140.4 154.5
source: CTGO data, IKN calcs & estimates
That gets us to a production of a little over 20,000oz per quarter and at U$2,000/oz, total sales
of U$140.4m. We then apply those to expected costs to generate a condensed income
statement using the same four gold price decks:
CTGO at Lucky Shot: Income statement model year (U$m)
at 11.7m S/O U$1,700/oz U$1,900/oz U$2,000/oz U$2,200/oz
Sales (U$m) 119.3 133.4 140.4 154.5
COGS 57.7 57.7 57.7 57.7
Depreciation 20.0 16.0 16.0 16.0
SGA+R&D 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0
NSRs 17.9 20.0 21.1 23.2
9

Op income 14.7 30.6 36.6 48.6
Interest 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Workers Part. 1.2 2.5 2.9 3.9
Tax 3.8 7.9 9.4 12.5
Net income 9.7 20.3 24.3 32.2
Shares out 11.7 11.7 11.7 11.7
EPS 0.83 1.73 2.07 2.75
Sust. Capex 6 6 6 6
FCF 3.05 3.62 3.95 4.63
Sources: CTGO data, IKN calcs & estimates
At my personally preferred U$2,000/oz gold price, those 82k oz per year turn into an operating
profit of U$36.6m, or U$3.13 per share over an initial projected six year mine life. As for what
that might mean for the share price…
Sales and earnings Valuation data for CTGO at Lucky Shot based on
1.k 1.9k 2.0k 2.2k
Year Au Au Au Au average annual production and U$2,000/oz gold
Sales (U$m) 119 133 140 154 LT target $39.53 based on 10x FCF
Sales growth 12% 5% 10% Upside to target 111%
EPS 0.83 1.73 2.07 2.75 Mkt cap (U$m) $177 Enterprise value $177
FCF 3.05 3.62 3.95 4.63 P/sales (1.k Au) 1.33 EV/sales (1.k Au) 1.33
P/E (1.k Au) 22.5 EV/EBITDA (1.k Au) 5.1
P/E (1.9k Au) 10.8 EV/EBITDA (1.9k Au) 3.8
P/E (2.0k Au) 9.0 EV/EBITDA (2.0k Au) 3.4
…this target box needs to be taken with a large pinch of salt because it projects us into the
future and the years in which CTGO could command a normal multiple to earnings once in
production at Lucky Shot. However, it makes no adjustment for all the cash made at Manh
Choh in the meantime and by using a standard producer type multiple, we show what CTGO
could achieve by re-investing its Manh Choh profits into Lucky Shot.
Discussion and conclusion: We won’t take long with this. After waiting patiently for the right
price to come along at CTGO we finally have a great entry point and what’s more, it came at an
expected moment. One of the windows was always going to be when the company went to
market to raise exploration capital for Lucky Shot but, due to the pricing and the larger than
expected size of the raising last week, the
sell-off was deeper than even I had hoped
for. However, it was telling how quickly RvN
and his team managed to close this relatively
large financing in what most consider to be
tough market conditions for juniors, there
was obviously a willing audience on the
sidelines waiting for this placement and
happy with the U$19 price.
All this allows us the right price for entry, in
a market that is finally showing reasonable
daily volume for the stock and at a time
when news from CTGO is about to step up a
couple of gears. I’m not going to let this opportunity pass. At Manh Choh, CTGO has its fully
funded mine now under construction with first pour expected in a year’s time. It’s set to provide
very good cash flow to the company and as CTGO is now for all intents and purposes a passive
investor, it’s now free to go explore and develop in other places and use the cash thrown off by
Manh Choh for greater purposes. They have just that type of opportunity in Lucky Shot, which
is almost certain to benefit from the first seriously funded exploration program and the
company’s first objective of half a million ounces of high grade gold looks reasonable, all things
10

considered. The trade at CTGO is therefore to buy now at this discount and watch as the news
of profits from Manh Choh and high grade development at Lucky Shot push the stock price
higher, back to the U$30 level is enjoyed just a few weeks ago. That would be a reasonable
first target for our trade and given fair winds and good news from its two main projects, easily
attainable. It’s time to own some Contango ORE (CTGO). The stock will move from Watch Kist
to the main Recommended Stocks section of the Stocks to Follow list as from next weekend.
Stocks to Follow
There were five winners (ABRA.v, QCCU.v, FDY.to, NCAU.v, MARI.to), twelve losers (MAI.v,
EQX, ABRA.v, WEX.v, ALDE.v, MIRL.cse, LMS.v, SURG.v, RUG.v, GSHR.v, CTGO, MENE.v) and
four unchanged stocks (SOLG.to, RIO.v, OCI.v, LBC.v) on out list of 21 names in the current
Stocks to Follow list, which sounds worse than it is because five of those losers are from the
Watch List and the lower they go before I buy, the better. There were four larger percentage
losers, but they were all from the bottom end of the table and include Minera IRL (MIRL.cse
down 50.0%), Contango ORE (CTGO down 29.2% happy to report that drop), Rugby Resources
(RUG.v down 12.5%) and Latin Metals (LMS.v down 12.5%). One decent winner to report, that
was Faraday Copper (FDY.to up 9.9%) which gets the virtual double figure move award.
We’re still on 21 stocks in our table, one above the self-imposed maximum number of covered
stocks with 13 of them owned personally. That’s still a problem. Nine stocks are in the green
and eleven are in the red.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.325 54.8% $0.75 first tgt, #1 idea
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Amerigo Res ARG.to STR BUY C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.58 16.2% Main Cu trade, top fundies
SolGold SOLG.to STR BUY C$0.265 19-Feb-23 C$0.28 5.7% Cu in Ecuador, M&A tgt
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v BUY C$0.265 25-Apr-21 C$0.17 -35.8% delayed MRE now due end Q3
Equinox Gold EQX SPEC BUY U$4.46 30-May-23 U$5.06 13.5% Au leverage trade, trading well
Faraday Copper FDY.to BUY C$0.79 26-Mar-23 C$0.89 12.7% USA based Cu exploreco
AbraSilver Res. ABRA.v BUY C$0.36 4-Dec-22 C$0.29 -19.4% added for last time Mar'23
Western Explor. WEX.v BUY C$1.87 9-Apr-23 C$1.22 -34.8% Au spec in NV USA
Newcore Gold NCAU.v SPEC BUY C$0.205 23-Oct-22 C$0.15 -26.8% Financing closed, bottom in
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v BUY C$0.83 22-Apr-18 C$0.26 -68.7% Cheap on permit probs, appeal
SPECULATIVE TRADES
Orecap inv OCI.v SPEC BUY C$0.04 20-Nov-22 C$0.035 -12.5% corp revamp, new strategy
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v SPEC BUY C$0.72 16-May-21 C$0.85 18.1% now in drill assay season
Minera IRL MIRL.cse avoid C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.005 -97.4% run into ground byCEO, AVOID
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
Marimaca Copper MARI.to WATCH C$3.65 26-May-23 C$4.16 14.0% Likely buy, want cheap entry
Latin Metals LMS.v WATCH C$0.15 11-Sep-22 C$0.125 -16.7% Peru&Arg prospect generator
Surge Copper SURG.v WATCH C$0.11 18-Jun-23 C$0.12 9.1% tinycap Cu in BC Canada
Libero Copper LBC.v WATCH C$0.065 2-Jul-23 C$0.05 -23.1% Watching for Arg drill permit
Rugby Resources RUG.v WATCH C$0.06 26-Mar-23 C$0.04 -33.3% tinycap Cu in Colombia
Goldshore Res GSHR.v DROPPING C$0.165 26-Mar-23 C$0.145 -12.1% Dropping from Watch List
Contango Ore CTGO BUYING U$23.25 2-Dec-22 U$18.75 -19.4% Placement = time to position
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.63 6-Dec-20 C$0.36 -42.9% LT bet, adding slowly
11

CLOSED TRADES IN 2023 date closed close price
Altiplano Metals APN.v jan'23 C$0.31 17-Sep-21 C$0.17 -45.2% delayed and will dilute soon
Western Copper WRN.to mar'23 C$2.02 13-Nov-22 C$2.32 14.9% sold on reduced M&A prob.
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v may'23 C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$1.75 -43.0% Closing on legal action news
Amerigo Res ARG.to may'23 C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.48 8.8% sold 20% to raise cash
2015 to 2022 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on some of the covered companies, but not so many this week, it was kind of
quiet for news flow.
Contango ORE: BUYING. A quick line to underscore the decision to move CTGO out of the
Watch List and into the main Recommended Stocks list. I’ll be buying a few CTGIO shares in
the days to come and that makes two pure US tickers on the open trades list.
Goldshore Resources (GSHR.v): DROPPING FROM WATCH LIST. After lastw eek’s
comments, then due consideration, a couple of mails from you people as feedback from the
comments of last week and a separate couple of exchanges with trusted sounding boards (you
know who you are, thank you), I’m going to drop GSHR from the Watch List for the time being.
Reasons:
 Management must change before this company makes a real turnaround. They’ve made too
many strategic errors, cash burn is too high and the recent egregious error around that
infamous 43-101 filing shows both a lack of oversight and lifts the curtain on the reality of
Moss Lake (Moss Gold) and the geological work that’s gone on there.
 The company needs to raise more cash soon, no matter who is in charge. That means
placement and in this market, financiers are going to hold the equity price down and get the
dilution that suits them.
 I have 21 stocks on the list and while nobody’s going to jail if it stays that way, I like to stick
to my own rules and keep it to 20. Dropping GSHR gets me back into the frame. Also and as a
sidebar, seven stocks on a Watch List was too many and as of next weekend, that will be back
to a reasonable five.
It’s been an education watching GSHR in 2023. Both the education and the fact I was only
watching are good.
Faraday Copper (FDY.to): As FDY kicked
against the field and moved higher while other
stocks floundered last week, I remembered how
close I was to selling the position an few weeks
ago and thanked a lucky star or two and made a
mental note to have a little more courage of
conviction about the fundamentals-based stock
picks on the list.
Marimaca Copper (MARI.to): This week
underscored my working theory that C$4.00 is
the place to accumulate this stock. Up 4% and
while not getting a lot of volume, sellers are few and far between at anything with t 3-handle.
Minera IRL (MIRL.cse): If the dump to one penny as documented last weekend in IKN740
didn’t impress you, how about the move to just half a cent we saw last week? As this chart
shows, it came on heavy volume too and there was no attempt to prop the stock once the big
chunks had sold through, either. We’ve stated clearly for over two years that this stock has
been run into the ground by its abysmal and rather suspect managerial team, the fruits of the
long-term mis-management are now on show for all to see.
12

The Copper Basket
After thirty weeks of 2023, The Copper Basket shows a loss of 3.64% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Solaris Res SLS.to 6.44 146.599 901.58 6.15 -4.5%
2 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.22 88.226 367.02 4.16 29.2%
3 Western Copper WRN.to 2.41 151.597 307.74 2.03 -15.8%
4 Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to 1.92 105.96 178.01 1.68 -12.5%
5 Faraday Copper FDY.to 0.54 175.2 155.93 0.89 64.8%
6 Hot Chili HCH.v 0.78 119.455 149.32 1.25 60.3%
7 Oroco Res OCO.v 0.91 213.438 147.27 0.69 -24.2%
8 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.78 153.96 130.87 0.85 9.0%
9 Regulus Res. REG.v 1.10 124.509 105.83 0.85 -22.7%
10 Pan Global Res PGZ.v 0.46 212.145 72.13 0.34 -26.1%
11 Kodiak Copper KDK.v 1.12 56.2 41.03 0.73 -34.8%
12 QC Copper QCCU.v 0.165 162.815 27.68 0.17 3.0%
13 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.16 86.966 15.65 0.18 12.5%
14 Libero Copper LBC.v 0.155 93.869 4.69 0.05 -67.7%
15 Atacama Copper ACOP.v 0.16 35.94 4.31 0.12 -25.0%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg -3.64%
Though copper wasn’t the centre of activity, The
The Copper Basket 2023, weekly evolution
Copper Basket still managed to return a modestly 12%
10%
profitable last week thanks to the tally of seven 8%
winners (SLS.to, MARI.to, ASCU.to, FDY.to, 6%
4%
KDK.v, QCCU.v, ECU.v) and four unchanged 2%
stocks (PGZ.v, REG.v, LBC.v, ACOP.v) tipping the 0%
-2%
balance against four losers (WRN.to, OCO.v, -4%
ALDE.v, HCH.v). There were no double figure -6%
-8%
moves in either direction, but Faraday Copper -10%
(FDY.to up 9.9%) got very close and Solaris
(SLS.to 8.9%) rebounded off recent lows nicely,
too. A look at our tracking chart shows that while
just six of the 15 basket components are in the green, it wouldn’t take more than a couple of
good weeks of price action to get us back into positive territory for the year.
And for that, we’d need a rally in copper.
Here’s are preferred Comex near-dated
futures chart for reference and the close
of U$3.92/lb and bits puts the metals near
the top of its recent range. The price chart
has put in nothing but higher lows since
May and looks particularly constructive at
the moment, though there are a couple of
ceiling prices to bust through before we
can return to the U$4.20+/lb prices of
2022.
As for copper market comment on the
week, we’ll quickly take in the latest
adjustment to Cochilco’s forecast copper
prices for 2023 and 2024, something they do with regularity as years progress (mostly it seems
to disguise how bad their original guesses tend to be). This time (2) Cochilco dropped its 2023
average forecast to U$3.85/lb and the 2024 forecast to U$3.75/lb, both down 5c/lb from the
last guess, though the U$3.85/lb now matches Cochilco’s original estimate for 2023, made last
13
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2yluj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03
source: IKN calcs

December.
Next up, the Reuters metals team seems to have “commodity strategist Nitesh Shah of
WisdomTree” on speed-dial but to be fair, his comments in this wire report (3) sum up the
atmosphere in the copper pit neatly, as does the report headline “Copper creeps higher on
hopes US rate hikes are over”:
A weaker dollar makes commodities priced in the U.S. currency less expensive for
buyers using other currencies.
“The Fed left the door open for further rate increases, but a lot of people in the market
are seeing this as more dovish than they were expecting,” said Nitesh Shah,
commodity strategist at WisdomTree.
“There’s constrained optimism in metals. We’re not breaking out to new highs or
anything like that.”
The advance was kept in check by more downbeat data from China, the world’s
biggest metals consumer, and as investors grew frustrated that policymakers were not
releasing more details on stimulus measures to fulfil recent support pledges.
China’s industrial profits extended this year’s double-digit pace of declinesin June as
waning demand took a toll on companies’ profit margins.
“The call for more stimulus in China is getting louder and louder with every
disappointing economic print,” Shah said.
With artistic licence for tomorrow July 31st, it’s the end of another month and time to wheel out
the long-term copper inventories tracking charts:
Copper inventories: percentage held per exchange
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
14
21.naJ ram yam luj pes von 31.naJ ram yam luj pes von 41.naj ram yam luj pes von 51.naj ram yam luj pes von 61.naj ram yam luj pes von 71.naj ram yam luj pes von 81
naj
ram yam luj pes von 91
naj
ram yam luj pes von 02
naj
ram yam luj pes von 12
naj
ram yam luj pes von 22
naj
ram yam luj pes von 32naj ram yam luj
LME Shanghai Comex source: Cochilco
Above we see how the percentage held by Comex has increased as that system adds tonnages
into its US warehouses while both SHFE and LME are depleted all over. Below we see no
change to the long-term tendency as we approach an important period for copper:
Key Cu inventory aggregate, 2012 to date
1000000
900000
800000
700000
600000
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
21.naJ ram yam luj pes von 31.naJ ram yam luj pes von 41.naj ram yam luj pes von 51.naj ram yam luj pes von 61.naj ram yam luj pes von 71.naj ram yam luj pes von 81
naj
ram yam luj pes von 91
naj
ram yam luj pes von 02
naj
ram yam luj pes von 12
naj
ram yam luj pes von 22
naj
ram yam luj pes von 32naj ram yam luj
Mt Cu
Comex
Shanghai
LME
source: Cochilco
This desk is predicting copper stocks will make world headlines in 4q23, as that period is when
Chinese demand ramps up as factories stock up for the pre-post Christmas period rush. Last
year SHFE stocks got VERY tight but LME held its ground, this year both of those are drying up
even before Q4 arrives. Maybe, just maybe, the Comex inventory hike is connected to some
longer-term speculation by US instos looking to get more control over the metal’s price
discovery mechanism.
Comex copper stocks, 2021 to date
80000
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
12
naj
bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 22
naj
bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 32naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj
mt Cu
source: Comex

That’s enough about long-term trends, time to switch to our regular look at the week-on-week
changes in copper inventories, with data as always from Chile’s Cochilco:
 The aggregate amount of copper in the three official stocks systems saw a significant
drop last week, down by 9,885 metric tonnes (mt) to close Friday at 166,767mt. As
we’ll see that drop was all about one zone, too.
 A big drop in Shanghai SHFE stocks last week, down a cool 16,608mt and that from
warehouses without much copper in them compared to normal years. Stocks closed at
61,290mt and another couple of weeks like this will soon elicit world level headlines.
 At the LME, we may have seen some arbitrage of some of those SHFE tonnes as
4,525mt were added to bring the weekend total to 64,425mt. Also cancelled warrants
are down to just 450mt, a tiny amount.
 Comex stocks continue to move higher, with another 2,198mt added to stocks since
this time last weekend. The inventory total stands at 41,052mt and from nowhere,
that’s now nearly 25% of all the copper in reserve stock in the world.
The dedicated SHFE charts show how the downturn last week fits into the pattern we saw in
2021 and 2022, the right time of year for a leg down in stocks.
SHFE copper inventory levels, 2018 to 2023
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
15
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
MT Cu 2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
source: Cochilco data
The longer-term single line chart continues to have that “something’s gotta give” look about it.
TA people may consider the pattern since late 2022 to be a head-and-shoulders, I’ll plead
ignorance on that.
Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2014 to date
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
31'13ceD dr32 ht51 ht7 ht03 dn22 ht71 ht9 ts1von ht42 ht71 ht01 dn2tcO 7102ts1naJ ht62 ht81 ht01 dr3ced ht52 102ht72rpa ht91 ht11 9102
dr3bef
102ht82rpa ts12 ht31 0202ht5naj 202ht92ram ts12 ht31 0202ht6ced ht82 dr32 ht51 ht7 202ht03naj ht42 ht71 ht9 3202
naJ
ht62 ht81
Mt Cu
|
source: Cochilco
Now for notes on a couple of basket stocks.
Element 29 (ECU.v): The stock was up 5.9% on the week and on wondering why and
checking the website to see if I’d missed any news, I noticed that 1) indeed, there hasn’t been
any news since May 30th and 2) that NR was to announced a non-brokered private placement of
11.111m units at C$0.18 (unit = share + ½ warrant priced at 27c). In other words, two full
months have passed since that placement was announced, therefore the lack of news is its own
signal. While it shouldn’t be too surprising to note another exploreco having trouble in raising

what is a basic level of working capital, it’s not a good sign for the state of the sector or for ECU
in the next few weeks. Hopefully the company will be able to stuff my words down my throat in
the days ahead and announce a the closing of a
fully filled raising. But not holding my breath on
that.
Western Copper & Gold (WRN) (WRN.to): Is
there a more frustrating copper stock out there?
Supposedly as “shovel ready” as they come and
with a major recently in as strategic partner (as
well as Newmont looking for synergies for its
Coffee gold project next door), you’d think that if
copper popped and the big copper stocks rallied
then WRN would go with them. Instead WRN
didn’t just ignore last week’s move, it went in the
other direction.
The Producer Basket
After 30 weeks of 2023, the Producer Basket shows a gain of 4.29% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 47.20 799 33.89 42.42 -10.1%
2 Barrick GOLD 17.18 1761.54 29.91 16.98 -1.2%
3 Agnico Eagle AEM 51.99 488.9 25.09 51.32 -1.3%
4 Wheaton PM WPM 39.08 451.963 19.89 44.01 12.6%
5 Kinross Gold KGC 4.09 1256.1 6.10 4.86 18.8%
6 Alamos Gold AGI 10.11 393.1 4.78 12.17 20.4%
7 B2Gold BTG 3.57 1074.567 3.70 3.44 -3.6%
8 Hecla Mining GFI 5.56 610.491 3.41 5.58 0.4%
9 Eldorado Gold EGO 8.36 185.73 1.79 9.62 15.1%
10 Wesdome Gold WDOFF 5.53 147.526 0.75 5.08 -8.1%
All prices and stock quotes in U$ Port. avg 4.29%
A negative week for the sector, with GDX down 2.4% and all ten of our basket stocks down on
the week and due to the risk-off nature of the market, our equal-weight ten got hit harder as
the smaller and more leveraged companies dropped more than the big boys. The least worst
performance was Wheaton (WPM down 0.4%), the biggest loser was Eldorado (EGO down
12.4%), most of the others were down between 2% and 4%.
The 2023 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
comparative to GDX control
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
16
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2yluj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03
The 2023 Producer Basket: Percentage difference
between GDX benchmark & basket (negative = IKN ahead)
4.0%
ikn 3.5%
gdx control 3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
source: NYSE, IKN calcs ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2yluj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03
source: IKN calcs, NYSE data

So we’re back facing the same uphill struggle to recover against the GDX benchmark once
again, but these days we’re into the second half of the year and the clock is starting to tick. I’ll
rest my hopes on the smaller market cap stocks providing the same sort of upside leverage if
gold rallies into the end of the year. What could possibly go wrong?
Newmont and Newcrest (NEM) (NCM): It’s been a while since we ran one of these
segments, what with the deal now in its legalbeagle phase and the market generally accepting
that it’s Full Greek Cheese*, but here’s a short segment to point your eyes toward an
interesting interview with the Newcrest Interim CEO Sherry Duhe that appeared in Mining Dot
Com last week (4). It’s not the deepest dive into the subject ever and is pitched as much at the
casual observer of the mining industry as anyone else, but it’s still notable to get CEO Duhe on
record about some of the process that led to the headsup deal agreement, as well as the
emphasis placed on copper by both companies. Indeed, it’s the copper angle that intrigues the
most and even takes over the title line of the report, “Newcrest interim CEO on Newmont
merger, and why copper could soon outshine gold.” As for its content, here’s an example of the
script:
Copper and gold are often found together, including at two of Newcrest’s major
projects: Red Chris underground and its 50%-owned Wafi Golpu project (held with
Harmony Gold) in Papua New Guinea. If the company moves forward with both
projects, its copper exposure would double. Depending on copper prices, Duhe says
they could tilt Newcrest’s metals balance to 50-60% copper production by around
2030.
“And strategically, our board has not put a ceiling on copper exposure in the portfolio,
so we could go even higher than that, if we found the right organic opportunities.”
Duhe says the company doesn’t expect gold to have the same “exponential growth
pattern” as copper. “In the future, (copper) could become the mainstream product with
gold as a very valuable byproduct.”
The report author then adds under the CEO Duhe quote, “It’s likely one of the biggest factors
behind Newmont’s pursuit of Newcrest” and in context, it’s a line that comes across as the
underestimate of the year. It’s also music to the ears of your author the dyed-in-the-wool
copper bull, so I need to be careful with my own bias confirmation but all the same, it’s notable
how one of the main drivers of the biggest M&A deal in the copper spaced in years is
apparently not gold, but copper. Newcrest’s own CEO admits as much and NEM is surely eyeing
up NCM’s high reputation in underground block mining for the future.
*Feta Complete
Alamos Gold (AGI) (AGI.to): One of several Tier 2 precious metals stocks to report its
quarter last week, on Wednesday evening Alamos Gold (AGI) filed its 2q23 (5) and in the words
of its CEO John McCluskey…
“…delivered a record performance in the second quarter on multiple fronts.
Operationally, we produced a record 136,000 ounces, exceeding quarterly guidance, at
costs consistent with annual guidance. This was driven by another excellent quarter
from La Yaqui Grande which contributed to the highest production and free cash flow
from the Mulatos District in more than 10 years. With the solid first half, we are well
positioned to achieve our full year production and cost guidance.”
Nothing to complain about there. It so happens that
AGI opened for trading the next morning into a down
market and dumped along with the GDX (chart right),
but by Friday morning the market had decided that
the numbers from AGI deserved better treatment and
it was bought right back again.
Quite right too and here are a few charts to back that
up, starting with the gold production breakdown chart.
In 2q23 (column right) we saw another solid quarter
from Young- Davidson, and slightly lower quarter of
17

production Island Gold, but only compared to previous quarters. Island’s sequencing had this
quarter planned and it’s expected to rebound as 2023 becomes 2024. But the star of the show
was undoubtedly Mulatos and as noted by CEO McCluskey, the company is now reaping the
benefits of the capex it ploughed into Yaqui Grande last year. The 60,300 oz gold from Mulatos
was a bona fide blowout and bodes well for the rest of 2023.
AGI: Gold production, per qtr
18
00653
00092
00905
00983
00653
00054
00363
00593
00054
00723
00763
00005
00143
00683
00084
00624
00883
00782
00953
00491
00132
00114
00693
00463
00213
00214
00084
00653
00224
00084
00953
00233
00154
0076200082
00005
00132
00573
00915
0052200542
00915
00202
00373
00464
00724
00413
00394
00194
00504
00644
00505
00923
00054
00306
00503
00254
150000
140000
130000
120000 110000
100000
90000
80000 70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2
Mulatos District
oz Au
Island Gold
Young-Davidson
Chanate
source: company filings
As for costs, this chart shows how Mulatos blowed out in 2022 as the capex went in and
production was deferred, but more importantly it shows how all three mines are now producing
back in line.
U$/oz Au AGI: Cost of Sales (Incl DD&A)
3500
3000 Young-Davidson
Island Gold
2500
Mulatos District
2000
1500
1000
500
0
18 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 21 21 21 21 22 22 22 22 23 23
q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q
4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2
Source: Company filings
Operating costs in U$m add up as seen in the chart below left and the regular overall cost level
means AGI gets to benefit from the rise in gold price. If there’s one area in which AGI has
excelled in recent quarters is its ability to contain costs while companies around it see op costs
and AISC move higher and higher (e.g. see the NEM chart in IKN740 last weekend, where AISC
is up U$200/oz in the last year). This translates to the chart below right and what is for me the
most impressive chart evolution of the whole AGI set. In 2q23 operating earnings per share of
22c was 3c better than an already impressive 1q23.
AGI: Costs overview
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2
U$m AGI: operating earnings per share
Other exp
G&A Royalty
DD&A mining process
Source: AGI filings
21.0
30.0
22.0 12.0 91.0
51.0 31.0
10.0-
70.0 80.0
61.0
91.0 22.0
0.40
0.35
0.30 0.25
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
-0.05
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2
$
source: company financials/IKN calcs

This overview chart of financial results (below) does the same thing in a more comprehensive
way and shows how Q2 posted record revenues (U$261m), record operating earnings
(U$88.6m) and thanks to a handful of small financial credits coinciding in the same quarter,
record EBIT (U$92.1m).
AGI: Operations overview chart
19
5.04
6
9.58 8.58 1.57
7.271-
3.65
6.34
3.41-
2.03 9.33
6.25 2.27 1.29
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
-50
-100
-150
-200
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2
C$m
revenues
Op earnings
EBIT
source: company filings, IKN calcs
Bottom line: Another great quarter for the sector star of the last two years and with every
reason to expect the good results to continue. AGI is in harvest mode and added over U$50m
cash to its treasury in Q2, at some point that cash becomes an organically grown war chest.
Eldorado Gold (EGO) (ELD.to): Another to report
last week, here’s the 10-day comparative chart for
EGO against the GDX (right).
A big dump, the biggest from our basket of ten last
week on results (6) that failed to live up to
expectations. There was a modest shortfall in
production compared to forecasts, with 109,435oz
gold produced and 110,134 oz sold, slightly down on
Q1 in total but not a real disaster and in-line with
annual guidance. In fact, the 2023 production
guidance for all four mines were ratified.
Oz Au Olympias
EGO: gold production breakdown, per qtr
Efemcukuru
160000
Lamaque
140000 Kisladag
11408
1 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 25828 13437 12934 2 1 3 3 3 7 0 4 5 5 15523 15779 16123 2 1 1 5 3 4 6 3 2 5 17561 13866
23298 23473 22631 8996 22793 22473 19928 22644
80000 44168
37369 21057
60000 28835 35643 51354 46917 42454 51349 37884 38745
33377
40000
20000 56816 46172 44016 51040 33136 29779 27973 37741 40307 37160 34180
0
4q20 1q21 2q21 3q21 4q21 1q22 2q22 3q22 4q22 1q23 2q23
source: company filings
As for costs, consolidated cash costs of U$791/oz and AISC of U$1,296/oz were slightly higher,
but again it’s tough to call this quarter a
EGO: Cost per oz Au profile, per qtr miss.
With EGO forecasting improved production
in the second half of the year and with
Skouries development apparently on-track
(we get a detailed update on that later in
the quarter, the market reaction to EGO’s
146
689
546
4701
646
3311
175
7701
538
6431
987
0721
308
9521
147
6421
667
4811
197
6921
U$/oz Au
1600 cash op costs
1400 AISC
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1q21 2q21 3q21 4q21 1q22 2q22 3q22 4q22 1q23 2q23
source: company filings

numbers looks rather harsh to me. Perhaps it was used as a liquidity event by money looking
for an exit under any circumstance, or perhaps as a profit-taking exercise as EGO is one of the
few strong performers in the gold space in 2023 to date. Eyes on the Skouries update that was
promised before the end of Q3, but aside that this looks a decent price considering the
improvement we’ve seen in this company recently.
The TinyCaps List
After 30 weeks of 2023, the TinyCaps show a gain of 15.41% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Aurelius Min AUL.v 0.07 49.787 1.00 0.02 -71.4%
Coast Copper COCO.v 0.045 64.001 2.56 0.04 -11.1%
District Metals DMX.v 0.075 86.891 9.56 0.11 46.7%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.13 69.962 8.75 0.125 -3.8%
Manitou Gold MTU.v 0.02 344.568 18.95 0.055 175.0%
Nine Mile Metals NINE.cse 0.29 57.025 6.27 0.11 -62.1%
Palamina Corp PA.v 0.08 65.285 9.14 0.14 75.0%
Precipitate Gold PRG.v 0.075 130.367 9.13 0.07 -6.7%
South Star STS.v 0.55 32.755 18.34 0.56 1.8%
Viva Gold VAU.v 0.14 106.721 16.54 0.155 10.7%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 15.41%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $20m. They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a
little and allowed sub-U$20m market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, but it was a particularly depressing exercise to trawl through the whole of the TSXV and find companies
that are small enough, but with life in them. The vast majority of sub-$20m stocks are broken stocks, either
traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2023. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
Just two week-on-week winners to report this edition TinyCaps, 2023 weekly tracker
50%
(NINE.cse, VAU.v) and of those, Nine Mile up 15.8% 45%
was the biggest move of any stock in either direction. 40%
35%
The only two unchanged stocks are the sold Manitou
30%
(MTU.v) and the suspended Aurelius (AUL.v), which 25%
20%
leaves six losers (COCO.v, DMX.v, LMS.v, PA.v, PRG.v,
15%
STS.v) and while none of them were massive dumps, 10%
they were enough collectively to pull the average down 5%
0%
5% from last weekend.
Aurelius Minerals (AUL.v): We still haven’t had any news from that stock since its CTO was
invoked at the start of May. That’s three months and a long time
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future
I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
20
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2yluj ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03
source: IKN calcs, TSX data

Regional politics
Ecuador: Voter intention tendency
As mentioned previously, it’s tough to read too much into the voter intention polls for the
August 20th election in Ecuador, but we now have three consecutive poll results from one of the
more reliable polling companies out there, Comunicaliza, from which there are a couple of
conclusions to draw. Here’s a chart (7):
Comunicaliza voter intention surveys, June/July
21
%9.52
%2.11 %3.01
%0.8
%2.6
%6.2
%8.62
%8.21 %3.01
%3.9
%5.6
%0.3
%6.82
%6.21
%1.8 %2.9
%4.4 %2.4
40% Luisa González
Otto Sonnenholzner
35% Yaku Pérez
Fernando Villavicencio
30% Xavier Hervas
Jan Topic 25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
18 June 6 July 26 July
source: Comunicaliza, Wikipedia
Here we track the results from the Comunicaliza polls of June 18th, July 6th and the one
published three days ago on July 26th. We only show the six highest polling candidates, neither
is there room for the aggregate 26% to 30% of those polled who answered don’t know/will
spoil ballot. So with clear limitations laid out, we can draw two clear conclusions and a third
general observation:
 Luisa González is consolidating her clear lead. She’d need 40% (and be at least 10% ahead
of the field) to win outright in round one, so we’re still in the likely scenario of a run-off.
 Otto Sonnenholzner is in second place and has carved out a percentage point or two against
his main rivals, but it’s way too tight to call. To remind reader, Sonnenholzner was Lenín
Moreno’s Veep between 2018 and 2020 and has an politically orthodox image in the country.
 However, any of those five could take second spot behind Luisa González and make the run-
off. We’re still two weeks away from what promises to be a critical moment in the campaign,
the only live TV debate between candidates that happens on Sunday August 13th. That, plus
the amount of undecided voters, combine to make an uncertain race in which anything could
happen.
To close, a reminder that any result which results in a second round run-off is going to play into
the hands of CONAIE and its leader, Leonidas Iza, who becomes a likely kingmaker and can
demand concessions on the policy points that his group values most. That’s where the spectre
of a moratorium on mining development raises its ugly head.
Ecuador: Activists continue to use mining as a campaign issue
We mentioned the cases last weekend in IKN740, so no surprise that activists and those
political parties pushing the anti-mining agenda are using them as much as possible. This week
saw a march and protest demonstration outside Ecuador’s Constitutional Court and while you
need to trawl the left wing press for coverage (the national press in Ecuador is pro-business,
privately owned and will run the stories it wants to run in an election period) you still get to
read what happened when CONAIE came to the capital. Here’s your author’s translation of this
news report(8):
Members of the Miembros de la Confederación de Nacionalidades Indígenas del
Ecuador (Conaie), the National Anti-Mining Front and anti-mining community
demanded during a protest gathering on Thursday the suspension of Decree 754,
concerning environmental consultancy prior to the granting of operating licenses for
mining projects, which they consider anti-constitutional.
“We call on the Constitutional Court, with immediate effect, to declare Decrees 604 and

754 unconstitutional”, said Leonidas Iza, president of CONAIE. According to the anti-
mining groups, via the Decree 754 which regulates environmental consultacy, signed
on May 31st by President Guillermo Lasso, the government is attempting to approve
the permits of mining projects located in two rural regions where repression of the
population opposed to the projects by by military personnel has been reported.
Meanwhile, Decree 604 contains the instructions to apply pre-legiislative
consultancies, allowing the socialization of mining projects among communities.
Outside the Constitutional Court in Quito, Iza called for the end of violence in those
territories that have seen confrontations (between protesters and forces of law and
order) and demanded a statement from the Constitutional Court regarding Decree 754.
He also demanded the the Ombudsman investigatre the breach of human rights in the
Palo Quemado (central Cotapaxi province) and Las Naves (central Bolivar province)
localities, and the State Prosecutor begins investigations for the violation of human
rights and excessive use of force.
Freddy Díaz, representative from the Las Naves municipality, expressed his rejection
of Decree 754 which runs “against the citizenry, against Ecuadorians, against the
rights that we have…to bring and impose upon us an illegal mining project in Las
Naves.”The National Anti-Mining Front also said that after the decree was signed two
community members were arrested.”
For the record, the two projects in question are the Toachi project at Palo Quemado owned by
Aitco Mining (ATC.v) and the Curipamba/El Domo project at Las Naves, owned by the Adventus
Mining (ADZN.v)/Salazar Resources (SRL.v) JV.
Colombia: A dive into the swamp
In last week’s note on Colombia, “A minister down and a speech to Congress”, we tried to keep
it to mining-related politics but this week’s update needs to cover at least some of the brewing
general-level scandal that’s brewing, if only to give a feel of the tensions between executive
and Congress. But first we cover the fun and games at the Ministry of Energy and Mining after
the resignation of Irene Vélez, as this time last week we passed on the strong rumour that
Fernando Vargas Mendoza, ex-Mayor of Bucaramanga and Petro ally, was in the frame to
replace Vélez while stressing that it was only at rumour level and nothing had been officially
decided. In the end he didn’t get picked as the job has been given to one Omar Andrés
Camacho Morales (9), a left wing Petro party member who was working in the Irene Vélez
advisory team and until recently, was earmarked to take over the National Hydrocarbons
Agency. Another left wing academic, his main job is to oversee and implement Petro’s plans for
energy transition and he’s bound to focus more on the energy side of his portfolio than that of
hard rock mining. However, the same thing must be said of Señor Camacho as of last week’s
rumoured replacement, he’s cut from the same cloth as both Vélez and Petro and militant left
wing political background is not one that fits easily with the world of mining. Don’t expect any
change from the current ambivalence toward the sector we’ve seen so far under Petro.
Meanwhile and from the wonderful world of mining politics, this weekend President Petro has
bigger issues to deal with, as this Reuters reports explains (10):
BOGOTA, July 29 (Reuters) - Nicolas Petro, son of Colombian President Gustavo
Petro, has been arrested as part of an investigation into money laundering and illicit
enrichment, the attorney general's office said early on Saturday.
The younger Petro, a politician in Atlantico province, had welcomed the investigation
when it began in March and has previously called accusations that he took money from
drug traffickers in exchange for including them in his father's peace efforts unfounded.
Having your son arrested for any reason is bad for your image (ask Joe Biden), having him
arrested for accepting money from narco gangs in Colombia is another order of political
scandal. This investigation has been going on for a few months and rumbling in the background
of Colombian politics, this weekend it exploded and Petro has been doing all he can to distance
himself from the acts of his son Nicolas his son’s ex-wife, whose declarations to authorities
earlier this year started the investigation. The absolute best-case scenario for the President is to
assume what we are being told by him and his government is true; that his son and ex-wife lied
to narco gangs and accepted money by telling them it would go toward his Presidential
campaign fund, only to keep the money for themselves and fund their expensive lifestyle in the
22

city of Baranquillo, where they live, all without the knowledge of the President (who was on
Twitter this weekend to wish his son “luck and strength”, then adding, “May these occurrences
forge his character and may he reflect about his own errors," the president said. That’s the
current story being used by President Gustavo Petro and it remains to be seen whether it sticks,
because if any real link shows up that shows Petro knew about or even used the money
involved would make this big scandal into one that could bring down the presidency. It goes
without saying that his political opposition is having a field day this weekend and you don’t
have to search far to find the hundreds of photos of Petro père et fils on the campaign trail for
the recent successful election campaign.
Argentina: Lefties love mining too
While the world outside Argentina looks on the three-way contest for President this year and
business does its normal thing of rooting for the right wing candidates (be that Bullrich or
Larreta from the orthodox right, or Milei from the independent Libertarian right), it’s worth
underscoring a point this publication has been making for over two years; that the current
Alberto Fernández government has been very miner-friendly and that its candidate for the
election, Sergio Massa, is firmly on the same bandwagon. Up until the arrival of this
government Massa banged a clear anti-mining drum while presidential candidate and/or
regional governor himself, but that tune has changed completely and these days, he’s on-board
with the pro-mining future for those Argentine provinces that welcome the industry.
This showed during his visit to San Juan province this week as part of his pre-campaign tour to
drum up support and allies, when he said to the assembled meeting and press corp (11), “We
are in the province that has doubled its mining exports and next year will double them again,
with copper and gold projects, that are changing our national commercial mix.” Another
member of his tour group was the current Secretary (i.e. Minister) of Mining, Fernanda Ávila,
who despite many forecasts when she was first appointed has survived and even thrived in her
post and these days, is considered one of the star turns of the Fernández government. She
backed up Massa’s position with extra detail (translated) (12):
“Mining is one of the industries that we believe will be key to solving some of the
problems that Argentina has. It represented 4% of total exports of our country and
while that number, U$3.8Bn, is relatively small, we see that it’s in clear growth and
those U$3.8Bn is the best result since 2012. There’s enormous potential in the future
(for mining) and by 2030, Argentina could be exporting U$18Bn of mining produce.
She finished with the necessary reference to Energy Transition, saying, “The push that energy
transition is giving and the need the world has for more mining produce puts us in a position of
real advantage for opportunities and to develop our mining potential.”
Burkina Faso political risk
The last time we looked at Orezone (ORE.to), the new gold producer we once traded while in
development stage, was in IKN723 dated March 26th as it had successfully made the transition
from development story to producer. We ran the numbers and by all financial metrics the stock
looked cheap at the time, trading at C$1.26. However, the bottom line was “pass” on the trade
and the reason was mostly its political risk. Here’s a segment from the conclusion that week:
The political risk situation in BF is an interesting one because it’s so binary. There isn’t
going to be much grey area between “all fine” and “all lost” and if one buys ORE today
and nothing bad happens to the mine, then you should make money. However and be
clear, the risk is precisely why this stock is cheap and in that scenario, they tend to
stay cheap as well. Overall, the equity isn’t a big bargain at these prices, at the very
least it would pay to wait two or three quarters and see if ORE pays down its debt on
schedule and in the meantime, observe the country risk as its story unfolds. Perhaps
one that could be revisited at the end of this year but, with working cap set to stay
negative for a few quarters and a low overall book value compared to the current
share price, there’s too much risk for the potential reward and I pass.
That weekend ORE.to was a C$1.26 stock and while it enjoyed a good run in April to as high as
C$1.61 intraday, this weekend it’s back at C$1.19 and the weakness seen in the last few days is
23

directly connected to the events in the neighbouring country of Niger this week (8), including
this weekend’s announcement by its new ruling military junta that it is suspending all gold and
uranium exports to its main customer (ex-Colonial) France. Once again, the binary nature of
political risk in the region is brought into sharp focus and reminds this author to stay away from
potentially volatile zones that he knows next to nothing about. There’s enough on my plate
covering LatAm, frankly.
Market Watching
Provenance Gold (PAU.v) redux
After last week’s main event note, “Provenance Gold (PAU.cse): Ignored and Interesting”, it
was pleasant to see there wasn’t any type of pile-in on the stock during the week and, as these
12-month and 10-day charts shows, traded volume barely changed. That’s good.
However, it’s notable that the company’s story got picked up by Trevor Hall’s Mining Stock Daily
podcast-cum-show in a 20-odd minute program published on Thursday 27th. The link to that is
here (13) and the segment features both company President Rob Clark and Project Manager
Steven Craig, with the latter particularly effusive about the prospects of the Eldorado property
we mainly featured last week. For those not wanting to listen to the show, a couple of positive
takeaways for me were:
 The link between PAU and the underlying owner of the Eldorado (and its White Rock)
project, Gold Royalty Corp (GROY), is Jerry Baughman, one of the GROY people that came
from its purchase of Ely Resources/Nevada Select Royalty. That’s “the right end” of GROY
and good to know that PAU’s contact isn’t the Garofalo, Hair, Adnani end of that entity.
 The duo confirmed that samples from its recently completed drill program are in the assay
labs and we should have results back during August, best guess in the next couple of weeks.
And they are clearly excited about the potential numbers we’ll see from the results.
However, it was also notable that the Mining Stock Daily show made zero mention of its cash
position and we remind readers that PAU is currently cash-strapped, though the lack of
movement in the stock price last week (if PAU is telling Trevor Hall these assays look good,
they’re telling plenty of other people) is indicative of this tight market for funding and the
likelihood that nothing serious will happen to the upside until cash is raised. Watching the wires
on this ticker.
New Gold (NGD): No reason to own
At almost exactly the same time as Alamos Gold
(AGI) reported on Wednesday evening (see above
in Producer Basket), New Gold (NGD) also filed its
2q23 financials (14) and as it’s a stock I’ve owned
and followed over the years, alongside the
impressive AGI I spent a few minutes updating the
Excel on the stock that evening. It quickly became
24

clear on reviewing the numbers that NGD was still in the funk we saw when dropping coverage
many moons ago and when the stock dropped 12% the next day (above), this desk was not
surprised in the least and though it caught the same relief rally as the rest of the market on
Friday, the verdict had already been delivered on its quarter. We’re not going into deep detail
today (after all, there’s no trade here) but here’s a quick spin around three of the most
indicative tracking charts to show why there’s very little sparkle in this company or much reason
to own at the moment.
First up its operating results overview chart and the business end is to the right of the visual.
NGD: Quarterly Earnings Overview
25
7.371 7.68
7.94
3.73
9.891
3.79
8.05
8.05 9.461 9.39
1.54
9.52
2.891
2.59
2.15
8.15 8.971 6.88
1.84
1.34
6.202
6.99
3.15
7.15 7.471 2.59
8.84
7.03 7.511 8.97
1.93
2.3-
2.151 2.99
2.55
2.3-
8.261 5.801
3.25
2
6.102
2.711 1.55 3.92 4.481 9.401
3.45
2.52
250
225
200
175
150
125
100 75 50
25
0
-25
02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2
revenues $m
op-ex
deprec/deplet
Mine Op Earnings
source: company filings
While revenues in the last two quarters are
back from the nasty dip we saw in 2022, op-ex
and DD&A are both chewing more out of the
gross margin than before and the last two mine
operating earnings results, U$29.3m in 1q23
and U$25.2m in 2q23, only manage to get to
3.1c and 2.0c per share respectively (chart
right). In other words we’re still a long way
from the results we saw in 2020 and 2021, the
period in which I was most interested in NGD
as a potential turnaround trade (that misplaced
optimism seems a long time ago).
However, the most depressing dataset gleaned
from the 2q23 is this one below:
NGD: Working Capital per qtr
9.353
5.966
3.004
1.062 7.332 412 1.012
4.315 8.194
4.303
3.322 3.602 1.102 6.541
700
650
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150 100
50
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2
source company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
NGD: Operating earnings per share
0.10
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0.00
-0.02
-0.04
-0.06
-0.08
The weak spots of the NGD balance sheet don’t show in the headline numbers, but scratch the
surface and we see money ploughed into fixed assets that haven’t shown good business
returns, a cash position that’s at best adequate for corporate liquidity and trade payables
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 32q2
cents
source: company financials/IKNcalcs

moving up all too quickly (current liabilities of U$203.8m is the highest in a decade and may
well be fuel related). The result is above, a draining of working capital to U$145.6m in 2q23
and we’re now lower than the 2021 period just prior to the time NGD sold its 8% stream on the
Artemis Blackwater project for U$300m cash (to WPM).
NGD is a shadow of the company it was and the promised re-boot of the company has fallen
flat, we’re left with an underperformer that’s now putting pressure on its own balance sheet.
This management team is one that must light a candle to the Market Gods and offer prayers for
higher gold prices, because it’s only going to get out of its hole through outside help and
doesn’t seem capable of turning New Afton or Rainy River around financially under its own
steam. Those of you looking for out-sized leverage to gold may want to consider NGD as a way
of playing a rise in metals prices, but frankly I see better ways to play a gold move with lower
downside risk than at NGD (e.g. Eldorado, see above). Avoid, or better said prefer other stocks
with equal potential upside to gold but lower downside risk if things don’t go well for the
monetary metal.
SilverCrest Metals (SILV) (SIL.to) and an Updated Technical Report
There’s nothing nefarious going on here and it’s not as if SilverCrest Metals (SILV) (SIL.to) has
hidden the fact that it is putting together an updated and revised 43-101 compliant Technical
Report for its big Las Chispas silver mine in Sonora, Mexico but the NR last week out of the
company saw a round of nervy-looking selling that may offer a trade opportunity for those
suitably inclined to trade around significant news events.
The much anticipated Las Chispas mine officially went into commercial production in 4q22, then
in early 2023 the company announced it was going to run an updated technical report on the
mine. SILV has made regular reference since then to this report, for example on May 11th and
its 1q23 financial filings which came with the covering literature (15):
Updated Technical Report
SilverCrest remains on schedule to complete an Updated Technical Report in late Q2,
2023. This report will include updated resources and reserves, which will incorporate
both increased infill drilling and data from underground operations, including
reconciliation. The updated reserves will support refreshed operating and sustaining
costs, and a new LOM plan which will consider the optimal mining, stockpile and
processing rates.
Fair enough and previously to last week, the last update came on June 16th when the company
added this short paragraph to its AGM results NR (16):
SilverCrest’s independent consultants are continuing to advance the Updated
Technical Report. This work is progressing well, with the results from this study now
expected to be released in July 2023.
That sets the scene for this NR, out last Thursday morning pre-open (17):
VANCOUVER, BC – July 27, 2023 – SilverCrest Metals Inc. (“SilverCrest” or the
“Company”) announces that it will release results from its Updated Technical Report
(“the Report”) on Monday, July 31, 2023 after market close. SilverCrest will hold a
conference call to discuss the results of the Report on Tuesday, August 1, 2023 at 8:30
a.m. ET / 5:30 a.m. PT.
The reaction can be seen in this ten-day price chart below, plotting SILV against the main silver
producers’ ETF, SIL. As you can see, the NR caused the weakness we’d seen in the previous
days to accelerate and this desk assumes it’s all due to this Technical Report, with a few people
remembering that the report were due by the end of this month and moving out of the way
early, while others only reacted to the official NR and set date.
26

The issue is one of nerves and the unusual timing of this Technical Report. To be fair to Eric
Fier and his team, we know they are real and serious mine builders/operators and this new 43-
101 complaint report may simply be a case of diligent and correct work by a team looking to
build a long-term success story. However, the market nerves are clear and that’s because it’s
not normal for a new mine to see its 43-101 report be updated so early in its mining life. What
the market fears (and I don’t blame Mr Market on this) is that now the company is truly
underground and literally seeing and dealing with the orebody face-to-face, instead of via
exploration/definition drilling and geological modelling, they may have found issues with the
current model that make a significantly negative difference to the mine plan and what we can
expect by way of financial performance from Las Chispas.
SILV has kept its cards close to its chest on the contents of this 43-101 and if things aren’t as
bad as the market apparently fears, SILV stock may be in for a rally as from Tuesday morning.
However and equally, we should be ready for further selling if SILV announces post-close
tomorrow that Las Chispas costs and/or production are changing for the worse compared to the
model we have. There will be plenty of industry eyeballs on this case tomorrow Monday
afternoon, as well as a guaranteed large attendance for its Conference Call the next morning. A
big liquid silver stock that has so-far under-performed into its production phase and showed
little in the way of the producer re-rate we often expect from developers that go into
production, there may well be a trade here. As for me, my full disclosure is no position and
waiting on the contents of tomorrow filing before making any change to that.
Conclusion
IKN741 is done, we end with just a couple of bullet points:
 Avoid Colombia. It’s way too easy to assume the mess Petro is now in means good
things for investments in the country. Sorry, it doesn’t work like that and while he’s
bound to come under pressure in the days and weeks ahead, it’s not as if he is about to
resign or let the right wing waltz back into power.
 Contango ORE (CTGO) enjoys a strong financial backbone and the projected earnings
from Manh Choh mean limited share price downside. We’re not going to see any further
share dilution, but we are going to see good newsflow going forward from Lucky Shot
and the type of high grade drill hits that turn people’s heads when the news hits the
wires. With traded volume now fair, the ducks are finally in line at CTGO. I buy.
 If all precious metals mining companies were run as well as Alamos Gold (AGI), the
world would be a better place.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stock is Minera Alamos (MAI.v). Flash
updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best wishes, Mark
27

Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://www.contangoore.com/press-release/contango-ore-announces-pricing-of-30-4-million-underwritten-public-
offering-of-common-stock
(2) https://www.cochilco.cl/Paginas/Sala-de-Prensa/Noticias.aspx?ID=643
(3) https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/copper-creeps-higher-on-hopes-us-rate-hikes-are-over/
(4) https://www.mining.com/newcrest-interim-ceo-on-newmont-merger-and-why-copper-could-soon-outshine-gold/
(5) https://www.alamosgold.com/news-and-events/default.aspx#news--widget
(6) https://www.eldoradogold.com/news-and-media/news-releases/press-release-details/2023/Eldorado-Gold-Reports-
Q2-2023-Financial-and-Operational-Results-Well-Positioned-to-Meet-2023-Guidance/default.aspx
(7) https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elecciones_presidenciales_de_Ecuador_de_2023
(8) https://www.elpais.cr/2023/07/27/activistas-contra-mineria-en-ecuador-exigen-suspension-de-decreto-sobre-
consulta-ambiental/
(9) https://elpais.com/america-colombia/2023-07-24/petro-escoge-al-ingeniero-y-militante-de-izquierda-omar-andres-
camacho-como-nuevo-ministro-de-minas-y-energia.html
(10) https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/son-colombia-president-petro-arrested-money-laundering-probe-2023-07-
29/
(11) https://www.ambito.com/politica/sergio-massa-san-juan-los-proyectos-oro-y-cobre-van-cambiar-la-matriz-
comercial-n5781671
(12) https://www.memo.com.ar/economia/para-nacion-la-mineria-sera-central-para-resolver-los-problemas-de-
argentina/
(13) https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/mining-stock-daily/episodes/Introduction-to-Provenance-Gold-e27ej7k
(14) https://newgold.com/news-events/news/news-details/2023/New-Gold-Reports-2023-Second-Quarter-
Results/default.aspx
(15) https://www.silvercrestmetals.com/news/index.php?content_id=515
(16) https://www.silvercrestmetals.com/news/index.php?content_id=518
(17) https://www.silvercrestmetals.com/news/index.php?content_id=520
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2022
Closed in 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
Goldshore Res GSHR.v Nov'22 C$0.18 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 88.9% Quick profit taken
Palamina Corp PA.v Dec'22 C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.08 -72.9% Clear-out of underperformer
Pure Gold PGM.h Dec'22 C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.015 -89.3% tiny trade on vh risk, went Ch11
28

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Set-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
29

B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
30

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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