IKN #737Premium

The IKN Weekly
Week 737, July 2nd 2023
Contents
This Week: In Today’s Edition, North America holiday week and BLS Jobs, A very abridged
edition.
Fundamental Analysis: Libero Copper (LBC.v) has a trade set up on the San Juan election
result.
Stocks to Follow: Western Exploration (WEX.v), Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v).
Copper Basket: Overview, Hot Chili (HCH.ax) (HCH.v).
Producer Basket: Overview, Newmont (NEM), Kinross (KGC), Wesdome (WDOFF).
TinyCaps Basket: Overview.
Regional Politics: Nothing
Market Watching: Nothing
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
In Today’s Edition
 Not much, frankly. We update all the tables and charts and run our half-yearly snapshot
of the components of the Copper Basket and Producer Basket. Then there’s some
thoughts on copper and an abridged note on the Hot Chili (HCH.v) PEA.
 The only new actionable idea is Libero Copper (LBC.v) and even then, I’m not going to
buy any shares personally. It’s high risk for those who do, but there is reason to believe
the company will now get its long overdue drill perit for the Esperanza project. That’s
today’s main fundies section, written in three hours start to finish.
North America holiday week and BLS Jobs
We have a shortened trading week in The Americas, two bullet points to remind you:
 Due to Canada Day, The Canadian markets are closed tomorrow, Monday July 3rd
 Due to US Independence Day, The US markets have a shortened trading day tomorrow
Monday 3rd and close at 1pm. Then all US markets are closed on Tuesday July 4th.
Things return to normal on Wednesday 5th, whatever normal might mean, then on Friday we
have the macro dataset that most matters. As at this weekend the consensus US BLS
Employment Report is for +200,000 Non-Farm Payroll jobs and a headline unemployment rate
that sticks at 3.7%, but keep an eye on your US macro commentator of choice (1) before
Friday morning comes around to see if that forecast shifts.
And of course, wishing all Canadian and United State citizens best wishes for their respective
national days.
A very abridged edition
This wasn’t the plan, so some explanation is required. Yesterday Saturday was my better half’s
birthday and we had people round for cake and so forth. The plan was to get that out the way
and then get on with writing the report (i.e. the stuff that is now missing), but by the evening I
started to feel ill and subsequently had a bad night, which I thought at the time may have been
1

something in the cake. However by thids morning I’d developed I came a headcold, too.
Instead of getting work done I went to bed and slept, then on waking tried and failed to
concentrate. Anyway, enough of my self-pity. As a result, this is a highly abridged edition,
basically a “bare bones” and the work you see mostly got done on Friday, plus some this
evening as the San Juan election result came in and the trade opportunity to Libero Copper
(LBC.v) became apparent. Please accept my apologies for the lack of content this week. It
wasn’t planned this way and I will try to fall ill on a Tuesday next time, rather than a Saturday
evening. And I still think that carrot cake was part of the problem.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Libero Copper (LBC.v) has a trade set up on the San Juan election result
I’ve been feeling rough and wasn’t going to put anything in this section today, but the news
tonight has got me to move the Copper Basket note on Libero Copper up to the main Fundies
section and offer it as a trade potential for those so inclined. As from next weekend LBC will be
part of our Watch List section (I’ll have to boot one of the other companies to remain at 20
names) but I personally won’t be buying any of these shares. The reason for my personal
preference was laid out four weeks ago in IKN733, in which I mentioned that LBC may be one
you might consider as a high risk fliptrade, while laying out my concerns about the stock and its
management profile in no uncertain terms. Here’s the last paragraph from the note that day:
This trade is most definitely not for me, as I wouldn’t give the two-faced slimeball Ian
Slater the time of day, let alone sponsor him with my money. And at this point I’ll
mention that my opinion of Slater is by no means the only one, as he’s upset and
annoyed a lot of people in the mining sphere with the morally bereft way he goes
about his business affairs. But a trade set-up is a trade set-up and once the drills start
turning at Esperanza, you may want to consider this as a flip before the noise starts.
All will depend on the price, and of course whether LBC is ever permitted to drill the
thing.
Back then LBC was a 9.5c stock, it’s now 31.6% lower at 6.5c. That alone makes its potential as
a rebound trade more interesting for others, so at some point if the potential reward is good
enough and risk has dropped, I need to set aside my own personal preferences and consider
the trade on its merits. The IKN Weekly does not impose its morality and a trade is a trade,
after all.
This week saw LBC drop even harder despite (or perhaps because of) the company publishing a
2,200 word NR the company published last week (2). The NR was one of those “corporate
update” jobs and used a lot of words to say very little of substance, all wrapped up in flowery
corporate language. However, the segment on Esperanza caught my eye and here it is:
Ian Harris, CEO, recently conducted a site visit to the Esperanza project, reinforcing
relationships with local stakeholders. During the visit, meetings were held with
landowners, suppliers in the San Juan region, as well as high-ranking officials,
including the Governor, Vice-Governor, Minister of Mines, and the newly elected mayor
of Jachal, the municipality closest to the project. Following the conclusion of the local
elections in San Juan in May, all individuals involved have expressed their unwavering
commitment to finalizing the permit process and advancing the project.
"We are dedicated to maximizing employment and contracting opportunities for the
San Juan and Jachal community, recognizing the impact of reduced operations in
nearby mining projects on the local economy. We have actively listened to the
concerns of local landowners, business groups in Jachal, and the mayor-elect, among
others, and are committed to being part of the solution in an area with a rich mining
history. Our unwavering commitment to our core values and the highest standards
propels us forward," emphasized Ian Harris, CEO of Libero Copper. "The exceptional
work of our team developing social license, especially developing real relations and
understanding with local landholders, and establishing strong government partnerships
has laid a solid foundation for the restart of our project, resulting in the recent rapid
2

advancement of permitting. With confidence in our progress, we are finalizing our
exploration plans in San Juan."
The exploration permits for Esperanza necessitated external commentary from multiple
different ministries and institutions that occur sequentially. Libero Copper is pleased
update that 90% of the required external consultations have been successfully
completed, the majority since the most recent project visit demonstrating clear support
to get the project moving forward. The company anticipates obtaining the necessary
permits shortly, enabling project mobilization. As a result Libero Copper's exploration
teams have refocused on Esperanza and are finalizing a comprehensive exploration
program including a 5,000-meter drill program, with a primary focus on extending and
expanding from the 2018 hole ESP-25 (the last hole drilled on the project) that returned
0.57% Cu and 0.27 g/t Au over 387 metres from surface to the end of the hole,
including 0.74% Cu and 0.33 g/t Au over 232 metres from surface.
That’s because LBC seems to be nodding/winking that it will be able to drill once the elections
for Governor of San Juan were done. As a matter of fact, those elections happened today and
this last minute note, written as of 10pm local time, exists because of the result we received so
before we get to the point some background on the race.
The election for Regional Governor of San Juan province was scheduled for May and in fact,
most of the mayoral elections in the province (towns elect “Intendents”) went ahead as planned
and we now have mayor/intendent-elects up and down the province. However, the main
provincial election for governor was delayed due to an unsuccessful appeal by the current
Governor, Sergio Uñac. A member of the current national government’s party (the Peronists, led
by President Alberto Fernández) and a close ally of the President and his cabinet of ministers
(e.g. Sergio Massa, the likely candidate for President), he has been governor of San Juan for
the last two terms. His predecessor in the job was another Peronist stalwart, José Luis Gioja,
and between Gioja and Uñac the government party has controlled San Juan for the last 20
years. They have also made San Juan the pro-mining province we see today, with policies first
promoted by Gioja during his tenure and much of the current pro-mining stance in Argentina
comes from the way San Juan has developed its mining industry and become an example for
other provinces.
We now get to the election and Argentina being Argentina, our two-term Governor Sergio Uñac
wanted to run a third time, despite that being prohibited by the Province’s laws, so he went to
the courts to try to push through a reform (i.e. bend the rules) that would allow his re-re-
election. He was unsuccessful, the current law was upheld and Sergio Uñac continues to
complain bitterly about the decision to this day. However he had to stand aside and his party
had to nominate another candidate for governor. And they chose…his brother, Ruben Uñac (yes
indeed, Argentina politics etc). We could now go into a long story about the selection process
and how it changed the optics of this election, instead let’s cut a long story short and say that it
was generally understood by pollsters and the political class that if current incumbent Sergio
were allowed to run he’d have won, but with his brother as candidate t was going to be a tough
race between his brother and the main opposition. That is Marcelo Orrego, from the right wing
“Juntos Por El Cambio” party, i.e. the right wing of Argentina mainstream politics and the party
of ex-President Mauricio Macri, as well as the two Presidential hopefuls for November this year
Patricia Bullrich and Horacio Larreta. The good news for us is that Marcelo Orrego is also pro-
mining and has stated his position openly on many occasions. This link (3) has a snappy
soundbite answer of his when asked about mining:
“Totally in agreement, we need to get to work totally. Around 37% of the world’s copper
is found in the Andean Cordillera and of the eight biggest projects, five of them are in
San Juan. Mining brings significantly better employment, more growth opportunities
and better possibilities for Argentina and for San Juan.”
That’s what you want to hear from a candidate for governor. Meanwhile, this link is better and
features a longer Q&A (4) focused entirely on mining. In it, Orrego replies smartly about all
aspects of the industry such as development, permitting, the need to develop copper/lithium
etc mines for the energy transition, the opportunity this offers San Juan as a region, as well as
the often contentious water and social conflict issues that come with the subject. Etc.
3

And so to tonight’s result (5): At around 10pm local this evening, Rubén Uñac conceded
defeat to the right wing Macri party candidate and now Governor-Elect of San Juan, Marcelo
Orrego. As at midnight local time and with nearly 99% of votes counted it’s Orrego 51.2%
versus Uñac 44.3%, with the very poor showing of the Libertarian candidate (Javier Milei being
the national presidential candidate for that party) showing just 3.8%). This is big political news,
bother locally and nationally:
A) Locally in San Juan: This ushers in a right wing, pro-business, pro-mining governor and
executive that will please FDI at all levels. The margin of victory was large in what was framed
all week as a tight race that had the defeated Uñac as favourite.
B) Nationally in Argentina: This is a strong showing by the right wing “Juntos Por El Cambio”
party run by ex-President Mauricio Macri. The party’s candidate will be decided in a primary in
August and is almost certainly a choice between Patricia Bullrich and Horacio Larreta. This San
Juan result will make whoever gets the nod the favourite for the Presidential vote and for three
reasons:
1) The overturning of 20 years of Peronist governors in what is generally regarded as the
national government’s showpiece province is a significant defeat for President
Fernández and the likely government candidate, Sergio Massa.
2) The poor showing by the Libertarian candidate shows that once out of Buernos Aires
and the large cities, the “Wild Card” independent presidential candidate Javier Milei has
trouble garnering support. Good showings in the provinces are vital ingredient of a
national election campaign. In fact, the campaign by the candidate under hid banner
was so poor that on Friday Milei disowned him in front of the cameras, the type of odd
move he often does but it’s nobody’s idea of a coherent campaign or party fabric.
3) This will provide momentum for votes to move away from the Alternative Right and
back toward the Macri dauphin, be it Larreta or Bullrich.
So with the politics done, we move to why I think this result is good news for Libero Copper
(LBC.v) and why its shares may rally as a result. First and from the NR last week we know:
 The company has thrown in the towel on getting a permit to drill at Mocoa, at
least for the foreseeable future.
 They have redeployed to Argentina and Esperanza
 They hinted on getting a drill permit soon, despite the significant opposition to
the project from the local communities.
Those communities are led by Jachal, the most anti-mining town in the province and near
neighbour to the Esperanza project. As so happens, the candidate running with the Uñac
Brothers party won the mayoral election in Jachal in May and the new mayor-elect, one Matías
Espejo, also comes with pro-mining credentials (and we note LBC has already conversed with
him). During his campaign he was careful not to make too many noises about the touchy
subject of mining and water supply and with the election of a right wing Governor this evening,
said mayor now even has a defence to offer his immediate electorate when the new governor
signs off on the permits for LBC’s 5,000m exploration drill campaign. Be clear, I do not think
this project stands much of a chance of moving forward meaningfully as there is far too much
opposition to it on a local level. But there may be a drill fliptrade in the offing, so the task will
be to keep your eyes peeled to see if the Esperanza drill permit is granted for the 5,000m
program. If so, there’s a near-term trade as LBC is bound to go for the lowest hanging fruit in
its first hole and we know there’s good long mineralization on the project site.
The NR last week from LBC fell upon deaf ears and caused more selling, most likely due to the
implicit pulling out from Mocoa in Colombia. After that, when LBVC laid on the flowery verbals
to talk up their progress at Esperanza, nobody seemed to want to know. Quite right too, as not
only is there the “Boy who cried wolf” factor of Mocoa, but LBC has been promising “Esperanza
permits at any moment” since last December, so reading the same kind of tease from the
company six months on must have annoyed as much as it informed. However, I think there
may be good reason to expect those drill permits to happen now and there’s only so much that
4

an anti-mining organization can do to stop early stage drilling from happening, it’s not as if
they’re digging an open pit mine at this stage.
Therefore, I believe there are three ways to play Libero Copper going forward:
 Buy now at 6.5c or so, then hope for news on the permits. That should help put an
extra penny or two onto the stock price, but it’s obviously higher risk because part of
the trade is second-guessing Argentine politicians.
 Wait for the news of permits for Esperanza and its 5,000m drill program, then buy. This
would be the most prudent course for those interested. The payoff would then
presumably come when the first hole or holes come back and LBC makes sure it has a
nice headline from the low hanging fruit zone of the property. If you wait for the
permits you probably won’t get in at the lowest possible price, but the trade is less
risky. You’ll still get to buy low/sell high, though.
 Stay away from the stock altogether and refuse to sponsor a scumbag like Slater with
your own cash. That’s my course of action, call me stupid if you like.
However, it is also evident to this desk that
there’s trade potential in LBC at this extremely
beaten down level, so as from next week we will
include it on our Watch List in the stocks to
Follow list. I’ll leave you with the brutal LBC Q2
chart and, with around 110m shares out as at
June 30th, the market cap of just over C$7m will
give a lot of leverage to a splashy drill result. The
key to this trade is getting the permit and then
stepping aside before the local Jachal community
protests and closes the project down. Those
protests will only rise once there’s a direct threat
to the water supply and that won’t occur to them
until the first sets of drill results are in and
announced.
And now I’m wrapping up this note. I don’t feel at all well.
Stocks to Follow
With the addition of Surge Copper (SURG.v) last week, we now have a full complement of 20
companies on our Stocks to Follow table, though six of those are Watch List only and plenty of
the others are only small positions at this point. But we follow we do, because they are
interesting and ultimately they all count.
On the week, ten of the stocks returned gains (ARG.to, FDY.to, RIO.v, OCI.v, ALDE.v, MARI.to,
LMS.v, GHSR.v, CGTO, MENE.v) and four of those put in double figure percentage gains to out-
perform the market, namely Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v up 18.8%), Latin Metals (LMS.v up 17.2%),
OreCap (OCI.v up 16.7%) and Mene (MENE.v up 11.1%). Two stocks were unchanged on the
week (MIRL.cse, RUG.v) and that leaves eight losers (MAI.v, SOLG.to, QCCU.v, EQX, ABRA.v,
WEX.v, NCAU.v, SURG.v), of which the only big loser was Western Exploration (WEX.v down
12.1%).
We’re now up to a full quota of 20 stocks in our table thanks to the arrival of Surge Copper
(SURG.v) to the Watch List., our self-imposed maximum number of covered stocks and 13 of
them owned personally. Nine stocks are in the green, one is UNCH, ten are in the red.
5

company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.31 47.6% $0.75 first tgt, #1 idea
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Amerigo Res ARG.to STR BUY C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.54 13.2% Main Cu trade, top fundies
SolGold SOLG.to STR BUY C$0.265 19-Feb-23 C$0.27 1.9% Cu in Ecuador, M&A tgt
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v BUY C$0.265 25-Apr-21 C$0.15 -43.4% MRE due this month
Equinox Gold EQX SPEC BUY U$4.46 30-May-23 U$4.58 2.7% Au leverage trade
Faraday Copper FDY.to hold C$0.79 26-Mar-23 C$0.76 -3.8% Latest Cu exploreco, IKN723
AbraSilver Res. ABRA.v BUY C$0.36 4-Dec-22 C$0.285 -20.8% added for last time Mar'23
Western Explor. WEX.v BUY C$1.87 9-Apr-23 C$1.23 -34.2% Au spec in NV USA
Newcore Gold NCAU.v SPEC BUY C$0.205 23-Oct-22 C$0.145 -29.3% now financing. Bottom?
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v BUY C$0.83 22-Apr-18 C$0.285 -65.7% Cheap on permit probs, appeal
SPECULATIVE TRADES
Orecap inv OCI.v SPEC BUY C$0.04 20-Nov-22 C$0.04 0.0% corp revamp, new strategy
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v SPEC BUY C$0.72 16-May-21 C$0.89 23.6% now in drill assay season
Minera IRL MIRL.cse avoid C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.025 -87.2% run into ground byCEO, AVOID
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
Marimaca Copper MARI.to WATCH C$3.65 26-May-23 C$4.19 14.8% Likely purchase soon
Latin Metals LMS.v WATCH C$0.15 11-Sep-22 C$0.17 13.3% new to list, ´prospect gen
Surge Copper SURG.v WATCH C$0.11 18-Jun-23 C$0.10 -9.1% new on watchlist, Cu in BC CA
Rugby Resources RUG.v WATCH C$0.06 26-Mar-23 C$0.045 -25.0% tiny spec Cu in Col
Goldshore Res GSHR.v WATCH C$0.165 26-Mar-23 C$0.18 9.1% return to list, possible flip
Contango Ore CTGO WATCH U$23.25 2-Dec-22 U$25.48 9.6% Manh Choh finance now closed
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.63 6-Dec-20 C$0.30 -52.4% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2023 date closed close price
Altiplano Metals APN.v jan'23 C$0.31 17-Sep-21 C$0.17 -45.2% delayed and will dilute soon
Western Copper WRN.to mar'23 C$2.02 13-Nov-22 C$2.32 14.9% sold on reduced M&A prob.
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v may'23 C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$1.75 -43.0% Closing on legal action news
Amerigo Res ARG.to may'23 C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.48 8.8% sold 20% to raise cash
2015 to 2022 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on some of the covered companies:
Western Exploration (WEX.v): This has been sold down nastily on low volumes ever since
the placement was announced and the closing hasn’t stopped the move. It’s not a great start
and it doesn’t matter that it’s a small position so far, the pattern is not great. There will be a
bottom at some point (there always is) and that’s the time I’ll consider adding and averaging
down. But there’s no point in trying to second-guess the bottom and WEX needs to offer up
news to mark some sort of official start to its exploration campaign.
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v): The big percentage winner of the week as speculative cash moves in on the
expectation of a positive result from the Comite de Ministros appeal hearing, even though the
date has not yet been set or the result any sort of guarantee.
As stated last week, put a gun to my head and I’d call this an 80/20 chance of getting a positive
result but that is by no means 100% and won’t be until we have the committee’s final decision,
published and in front of our noses. Until such time I’m going to remain nervous about the
result and I’m not going to pretend false bravado otherwise.
Be clear: On strict merits, Rio2 at Fenix has a very strong to offer and checks the boxes for all
6

matters of concern, including those lovable furry little wild chinchillas. Water, community, noise,
dust, road use, reclamation, you name it and they’ve either had the line item pass examination
already, or they’ve brought in experts and collated the data and evidence required to show that
the project complies with all standards set. This is important, because (as mentioned last week)
Chilean law requires that the permit be granted if compliance is achieved. However, we on the
outside need to recognize that this may turn into a political decision as much as anything else
and that brings in the wild card. That any negative would allow Rio2 a strong case in a
subsequent industrial tribunal and they could sue for enormous damages due to an unjust
politically derived decision is neither here nor there as regards the trade today, we require a
positive decision and a company that is allowed to get on with the business it’s meant to do.
Markets do what markets do and the move anticipating positive news also means we’re back at
the levels last seen when the permit denial happened last year, just after the SEA had returned
its negative assessment on the Rio2 permit application (that causded the first waterfall drop
from the 50c line). We won’t see 50c or above at first, but as noted last week 40c is a
reasonable first target. However and it must be said, last week’s speculative move also baked in
downside if the verdict goes political and against the company. We await news of a date for the
appeal, which should happen either this month or next.
The Copper Basket
After twenty-six weeks of 2023, The Copper Basket shows a loss of 6.83% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Solaris Res SLS.to 6.44 146.599 867.87 5.92 -8.1%
2 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.22 88.226 369.67 4.19 30.1%
3 Western Copper WRN.to 2.41 151.597 309.26 2.04 -15.4%
4 Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to 1.92 105.96 176.95 1.67 -13.0%
5 Oroco Res OCO.v 0.91 213.438 151.54 0.71 -22.0%
6 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.78 153.96 137.02 0.89 14.1%
7 Faraday Copper FDY.to 0.54 175.2 133.15 0.76 40.7%
8 Hot Chili HCH.v 0.78 119.455 111.09 0.93 19.2%
9 Regulus Res. REG.v 1.10 124.509 107.08 0.86 -21.8%
10 Pan Global Res PGZ.v 0.46 212.145 74.25 0.35 -23.9%
11 Kodiak Copper KDK.v 1.12 56.2 42.71 0.76 -32.1%
12 QC Copper QCCU.v 0.165 162.815 24.42 0.15 -9.1%
13 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.16 86.966 16.09 0.185 15.6%
14 Libero Copper LBC.v 0.155 110.1 7.16 0.065 -58.1%
15 Atacama Copper ACOP.v 0.16 35.94 4.67 0.13 -18.8%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg -6.83%
7

Technically an improvement on the week, our basket average added 0.06% thanks to the near
perfect balance of seven winners (SLS.to,
MARI.to, ASCU.to, ALDE.v, HCH.v, FDY.to, ECU.v),
The Copper Basket 2023, weekly evolution
12%
seven losers (WRN.to, OCQO.v, REG.v, KDK.v,
10%
QCCU.v, LBC.v, ACOP.v) and one unchanged stock 8%
(PGZ.v). The only out-sized move among the 15 6%
4%
was Libero Copper (LBC.v down 23.5%), which 2%
continued its price collapse. 0%
-2%
-4%
It could have been worse. Copper The Metal was -6%
weak for the first half of the week, broke under -8%
what seems to be a key support level of U$3.80/lb
and once it did, dropped quickly to under
U$3.70/lb (and spot copper spiked as low as
U$3.64/lb). It was all quite disheartening for a while, but once the US Dollar had stopped
rallying copper bargain hunters showed up. The result is this ten-day chart:
The bottom Thursday and the sharp rally Friday to close at U$3.76/lb looks to be technically
important, according to the longer-term chart:
In macro mining news, Fitch Ratings on Thursday raised its outlook for the mining sector to
“Neutral” from “Deteriorating” (6), with most factors for the upgrade either directly or indirectly
involved with China:
 The end of China’s Zero Covid policy
 Increased investment in Chinese infrastructure and real estate
 Chinese central government stimulus packages
 The resilience of the global economy
 The new push to energy transition
They also estimate that, “Supply and demand in major mining commodities remain balanced
with no concerns about fundamental oversupply.” Input cost inflation for mining companies is a
concern for Fitch, but their bottom line measured the pros and cons for companies thusly: “We
8
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2yluj
source: IKN calcs

expect global mining companies’ leverage to remain broadly stable, with flat free cash-flow
margins and a moderate decline in revenue in 2023 compared to 2022.” All in all nothing really
new in the Fitch call for students of this market, but it’s not a bad thing to get one of the
world’s big ratings agencies in the same ballpark, it gets the bigger money back looking at the
sector.
We move one and this weekend marks 26 weeks gone in 2023, that’s half year gone and as
such, we run our snapshot quarterly evolution chart that pits the 15 component stocks against
each other:
The 2023 Copper Basket after 26 weeks
9
%7.04
%1.03
%2.91 %6.51 %1.41
%1.8- %1.9- %0.31- %4.51- %8.81- %8.12- %0.22- %9.32-
%1.23-
%1.85-
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20% -30%
-40%
-50%
-60%
-70%
ot.YDF ot.IRAM v.HCH v.UCE v.EDLA ot.SLS v.UCCQ ot.UCSA ot.NRW v.POCA v.GER v.OCO v.ZGP v.KDK v.CBL
source: TSX, IKN calcs
Faraday Copper (FDY.to) is still out in the lead, but has dropped back to +40% for the year
after touching near double levels at the copper market’s highs in April. In second comes the
real success story for Q2, that’s Marimaca Copper (MARI.to) which was one of the very few that
added to its share price over the quarter (and the only one to do so substantially). Of the other
three in the positive column, Hot Chili (HCH.v) and Aldebaran (ALDE.v) essentially trod water
while the drop in the Element 29 (ECU.v) share price looks dramatic, but in fact the reading at
the end of 1q23 was the anomaly and it’s been basically flat, too.
As for the losers, the biggest and most obvious is Libero Copper (LBC.v), which was one of the
tailenders at the end of Q1 but did nothing but drop all though the quarter just ended. Kodiak
(KDK.v) is a better company but isn’t far behind, having seen its share price hit by a dilutive
placement that was arguably unlucky in its timing, coming just as the speculative interest in
copper stocks dropped to nothing at the end of April and through May. By the time that
placement was closed, there were no bargain hunters around to prop the price back up. He
other loser that sticks out for me is Western Copper (WRN.to), which cannot seem to get out of
its own way. It next date with a potential catalyst is in Q4, when strategic partner RTZ gets to
decide whether to stick or twist on its interest in Casino.
Overall, there’s no hiding the lacklustre quarter for The Copper Basket and while we can point
the finger at this-or-that individual stock, the driver behind the losses is simply the copper price.
At just over U$4.00/lb at the end of Q1 and peaking higher just after, the recent weakness to
go under U$3.80/lb for the second time in recent weeks has seen speculative cash drain away
from these volatile stocks. It is the way it is, so for repair and rebound look no further than the
spot market for the metal and China’s appetite in the weeks ahead.
Which brings us to our coverage of on of the better indicators for copper demand from the
consumer of 55% of the world’s copper production per year. As it’s the end of the month as
well as the quarter, here are the long-term tracking charts for LME, SHFE and Comex
inventories and once you add the three together, we just a few hundred metric tonnes (mt)
away from the all-time stocks low we hit in November 2021.

Key Cu inventory aggregate, 2012 to date
1000000
900000
800000
700000
600000
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
10
21.naJ ram yam luj pes von 31.naJ ram yam luj pes von 41.naj ram yam luj pes von 51.naj ram yam luj pes von 61.naj ram yam luj pes von 71.naj ram yam luj pes von 81
naj
ram yam luj pes von 91
naj
ram yam luj pes von 02
naj
ram yam luj pes von 12
naj
ram yam luj pes von 22
naj
ram yam luj pes von 32naj ram yam
Mt Cu
Comex
Shanghai
LME
source: Cochilco
And that’s important, because November is when the cycle should hit lows, not in the middle of
the year when buyers are usually away from the market and futures market inventories grow.
The percentage balance (below) also shows that the SHFE re-stock has reversed and LME is
back in the position it normally takes, but this time LME stocks are highly depleted as well.
Copper inventories: percentage held per exchange
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
21.naJ ram yam luj pes von 31.naJ ram yam luj pes von 41.naj ram yam luj pes von 51.naj ram yam luj pes von 61.naj ram yam luj pes von 71.naj ram yam luj pes von 81
naj
ram yam luj pes von 91
naj
ram yam luj pes von 02
naj
ram yam luj pes von 12
naj
ram yam luj pes von 22
naj
ram yam luj pes von 32naj ram yam
LME Shanghai Comex source: Cochilco
Another thing to note is that even though Comex stocks are the clear inferior of the three and
do nothing for price discovery under normal circumstances, their gradual climb in 2q23 while
the two main systems have drawn down is another indicator of chronic depletion in the main
Asia markets. The copper that arrives in Comex warehouses is normally in New Orleans and
geographically too distant from the Chinese (or Japan, or South Korea) markets to ship out
profitably. This is “roach motel” inventory tonnage that reacts to North American demand if any
(and then the correlation is not as tight as SHFE is to China|).
Comex copper stocks, 2021 to date
80000
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
12
naj
bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 22
naj
bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 32naj bef ram rpa yam nuj
mt Cu
source: Comex
The bottom line: We should not be plumbing record lows in copper inventory in June of any
year, it’s as simple as that. We have a couple of slack months ahead of us in the Northern
summer, but once the cycle comes around to September and then Q4 the copper supply
pipeline is in danger of drying up. Last year we saw SHFE stocks hit all-time lows but the end-
user market muddled through, thanks to arbitrage with the better stocked LME and probably
more direct supply from Russia (sanctioned in its normal European markets). It’s tempting fate
to say so, but 2023 does look different as LME will not be able to come to the rescue of China
and its continuing voracious appetite for copper.
Those are the monthlies, time for our regular weekly segment on copper inventories with data
supplied by Chile’s finest beancounters, Cochilco:
 World copper stocks broke trend last week and instead of a another sharp drop, the
aggregate of the three systems grew by 3,110mt to close at 170,280mt.

 We saw the first significant improvement to SHFE stocks for a while, with 7,889mt
added to post a Friday close of 68,313mt.
 The rise in SHFE was countered by a drop at the LME, where another 6,325mt came
out to leave the total world stock at just 72,975mt of copper. That’s not quite the
decade record, but it’s darned close and with over 28kmt of that hiding out in New
Orleans, there’s even less in real
supply available to the buyers of
last resort. As for cancelled
warrants, they dropped slightly
to 38,875mt but that still means
over half the copper now under
roof is slated to go to real end-
users.
 The Comex saw another
addition,, up 1,546mt on the
week and closing at 28,992mt.
It’s at this point I have the habit
of writing “No biggie” but, as the notes above try to point out, the build in Comex
inventory is now a latent bull factor we should take into consideration. This total, plus
the KMNE New Orleans tonnages, add up to copper that the world might think is
available to the market but in real terms, getting that to the people that matter (China)
would be prohibitively costly.
The dedicated SHFE charts show now it is now at the equivalent stock levels to 2022 and at the
same time of year.
SHFE copper inventory levels, 2018 to 2023
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
11
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
MT Cu 2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
source: Cochilco data
It’s difficult to read too much into these numbers, aside from “chronic depletion of stocks”. It’s
the second year of this, but SHFE could lean on the LME warehouse in 2022. It may well be
different this time.
Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2014 to date
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
31'13ceD dr32 ht51 ht7 ht03 dn22 ht71 ht9 ts1von ht42 ht71 ht01 dn2tcO 7102ts1naJ ht62 ht81 ht01 dr3ced ht52 102ht72rpa ht91 ht11 9102
dr3bef
102ht82rpa ts12 ht31 0202ht5naj 202ht92ram ts12 ht31 0202ht6ced ht82 dr32 ht51 ht7 202ht03naj ht42 ht71 ht9 3202
naJ
ht62 ht81
LME: 12 months of Cu tonnage under cancelled warrant
100000
90000
80000
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
Mt Cu
|
source: Cochilco
Now for notes on just one of our basket stocks, but it may turn out to be actionable.
ht42 ht8 dn22 ht5nuj ht91 dr3yluj ht71 ts13 ht41 ht82 ht11 ht52 ht9 dr32 ht6von ht02 ht4ced ht81 3202
naJ
ht51 02ts1naJ ht21 ht62 ht21 ht62 ht9 dr32 ht7yaM ts12 ht4nuJ ht81 dn2luJ
mt Cu
source: LME/Cochilco

Hot Chili (HCH.v): Subject of a one day halt before it announced the the arrival of its JORC-
compliant PEA for its Costa Fuego project in Chile, Hot Chili’s (HCH.c) price chart reflects…
…the relative calm by which it was received. There was a price pop o the day but there wasn’t
much follow-though and HCH showed no sign of breaking out of its established trading range.
Indeed, by including the very latest prices from its main Australia listing including today’s
Monday early trading down under…
…the slightly higher prices registered today do not come with an expansion in volume and the
stock is merely tracking the good start for copper overnight. So the long-term chart of HCH is
still the one to remember:
While volatile in its own way, HCH generally tracked the rest of the copper stocks (proxy COPX)
until the moment it announced its Canadian listing, towards the end of 2021. Come 2022 and
when that opened for business, the stock was hammered down by sellers using the opportunity
to liquidate legacy positions. And if you’d like me to name names, that means Rick Rule.
12

As for the PEA, its parameters make it look economic but there are corners of the numbers that
allow me doubt. This is a PEA after all, you’d expect “optimized” economics and in items such
as Life of Mine (LoM)open pit mining cost of U$2.21/tonne, that’s what we get. It’s also notable
how after all those recent splashy 0.5% Cu NR headlines, overall grade came in as expected at
0.38% Cu and while that’s beginning to look normal in the world of copper mining, it still means
the mine will have to fight for margin every year and with little leeway on costs. My main
concern is with the plan to access Cortadera via a combo of open pit and block caving for six
years, this method cutting down initial capex to around U$1.05Bn and leaving expansion capex
at U$700m or so further down the line. It’s a small operation to run two technically distinct
mining phases and have the mine plan rely upon the capex and opex of a block cave and with
HCH already studying the idea of making Cortadera a large open pit, the likelihood of front end
capex rising and that becoming 100% open pit access is high.
After studying the literature, running some calculations, tuning into the corporate webinar and
so forth, the bottom line to HCH at Costa Fuego is relatively straightforward: It’s going to need
a lot of work to get this from PEA to PFS level and there’s no need to buy into the story now.
The economics are good enough on paper without being outstanding and I don’t believe for
one minute they will be able to build the first stage for just over a Billion. So overall, although a
smaller project with a smaller footprint, it’s easy to choose Marimaca over this project at this
point in time, especially for retail.
The Producer Basket
After 26 weeks of 2023, the Producer Basket shows a gain of 3.75% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 47.20 799 34.09 42.66 -9.6%
2 Barrick GOLD 17.18 1761.54 29.82 16.93 -1.5%
3 Agnico Eagle AEM 51.99 488.9 24.44 49.98 -3.9%
4 Wheaton PM WPM 39.08 451.963 19.53 43.22 10.6%
5 Kinross Gold KGC 4.09 1256.1 5.99 4.77 16.6%
6 Alamos Gold AGI 10.11 393.1 4.69 11.92 17.9%
7 B2Gold BTG 3.57 1074.567 3.84 3.57 0.0%
8 Hecla Mining GFI 5.56 610.491 3.14 5.15 -7.4%
9 Eldorado Gold EGO 8.36 185.73 1.88 10.10 20.8%
10 Wesdome Gold WDOFF 5.53 147.526 0.77 5.19 -6.1%
All prices and stock quotes in U$ Port. avg 3.75%
A better week for gold producers, with GDX up 1.1% and GDXJ up 1.3%, and even better for
our basket of ten that beat our benchmark handily and cut our deficit almost in half.
The 2023 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
comparative to GDX control
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
Nine of our ten returned gains and the other, B2Gold (BTG), was unchanged to the penny.
13
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2yluj
The 2023 Producer Basket: Percentage difference
between GDX benchmark & basket (negative = IKN ahead)
4.0%
ikn 3.5%
gdx control 3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
source: NYSE, IKN calcs ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2yluj
source: IKN calcs, NYSE data

There weren’t any massive moves up, but most of our picks did better than the GDX and the
best performers were the smaller plays, such as Wesdome (WDOFF up 4.9%), Kinross (KGC up
3.5%) and Hecla (HL up 3.4%)
In the same style as above in The Copper Basket it’s the end of Q2, we’re half way through the
year and it’s time to roll out our tracking chart to take the snapshot of comparative
performance of the ten basket components:
The 2023 Producer Basket components after 26 weeks
14
%5.1-
%9.3- %1.6-
%4.7-
%6.9- 0.0%
%8.02 %9.71
%6.61
%6.01
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
OGE IGA CGK MPW GTB DLOG MEA FFODW LH MEN
source: NYSE, IKN calcs
The first thing to note is that only one of the ten had a positive Q2, that’s Kinross (KGC), which
built on its reasonable start in Q1 and is now in third place on the list. In front of Special K are
still leader Eldorado (EGO) and the impressive Alamos (AGI), those two have performed very
well and I’m happy that the decision to include EGO this year due to its Skouries development is
paying off.
The others have not been so great. Wheaton saqw its strong Q1 eroded badly and lost 12.6%
in Q2, B2Gold (BTG) is exactly unchanged to the penny on the year (ex divs) and Barrick
(GOLD) has slipped from modest positive to modest negative. But the big losers have been the
smaller and silver exposed Hecla (HL) and Newmont (NEM). In the case of HL, we included it
this year knowing the risk/reward of a smaller market cap with all that silver exposure would be
a double-edged sword, it was a risk I decided to take and in effect, its underperformance is the
difference between us and the GDX at this stage. As for Newmont (NEM), its decision to
prosecute on its move for Newcrest (NCM) has the industry applauding the apparent success,
but one has to wonder what sort of Pyrrhic Victory we’re talking about here as only the lawyers
and those board members enjoying Change of Control payouts are truly winning.
Overall, a poor quarter for Tier1 and 2 PM producer stocks, especially after having such a good
start to the quarter in the first weeks of April. We move into the summer lull and it’s going to
take a real move in the gold price to wake up these stocks.
Newmont (NEM): A little more about the #1 market capper that’s about to get even bigger
and with the NEM/NCM deal now seemingly in
plain sailing mode as we move toward its
consummation in 4q23, it was notable to see
NEM decide to defer on its development of
Yanacocha Sulphides once again. This also
signals its likely plans for the Newcrest holding
in SolGold (SOLG.to), as the notoriously
politically risk-averse NEM board will feel far
less enthusiastic about moving forward in
Ecuador than the NCM board.
Kinross (KGC): The “scoop” of the week
wasn’t really much of one, as the five day chart
of Kinross (KGC) mapped against the GDX and

its apparent suitor, Endeavour Mining (EDV.to) shows. Bloomberg reported on Thursday
afternoon (7) that EDV had been in talks “for some months” about acquiring Special K but
without getting anywhere and once the market had digested that, plus the apparent lack of
talks ongoing, the price pop soon reverted.
That Kinross has an entrenched board is not going to come as a surprise to this readership, but
it did remind this desk that we haven’t seen a true hostile takeover bid in this sector for some
time. That’s what it would take to see the Kinross name disappear (and it wouldn’t be mourned
for long if it did. Ultimately, all this scoop-that-wasn’t really shows is that EDV is ambitious
about its future, also as seen when EDV announced coincidentally on Friday (8) the sale of their
“non core” Boungou and Wahgnion mines to Lilium Mining, an African capitals mining
investment fund, for U$300m. That’s good money and raises significant warchest for a company
that is clearly looking to diversify and get a footprint in less politically risky jurisdictions. Which
in turn made me think of…
Wesdome Gold (WDOFF) (WDO.to), which had a better week and closed up 4.9%, the best
week of our ten charges. One of the most obvious M&A targets out there, We’re looking to the
Q2 production report and any guidance given on Kiena for more clues about its well-being. As
noted a couple of weeks ago, trading seemed to suggest WDO was not going to report a great
quarter production-wise and we also need to see how the Canadian wildfire related stoppage
affected the quarter at Kiena.
The TinyCaps List
After 26 weeks of 2023, the TinyCaps show a gain of 10.40% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Aurelius Min AUL.v 0.07 49.787 1.00 0.02 -71.4%
Coast Copper COCO.v 0.045 64.001 2.88 0.045 0.0%
District Metals DMX.v 0.075 86.891 7.82 0.09 20.0%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.13 69.962 11.89 0.17 30.8%
Manitou Gold MTU.v 0.02 344.568 18.95 0.055 175.0%
Nine Mile Metals NINE.cse 0.29 57.025 4.85 0.085 -70.7%
Palamina Corp PA.v 0.08 65.285 6.20 0.095 18.8%
Precipitate Gold PRG.v 0.075 130.367 7.82 0.06 -20.0%
South Star STS.v 0.55 32.755 19.33 0.59 7.3%
Viva Gold VAU.v 0.14 106.721 17.08 0.16 14.3%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 10.40%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
15

 Market capitalization of under $20m. They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a
little and allowed sub-U$20m market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, but it was a particularly depressing exercise to trawl through the whole of the TSXV and find companies
that are small enough, but with life in them. The vast majority of sub-$20m stocks are broken stocks, either
traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2023. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
It wasn’t by much, but TinyCap list also managed to break the sequence of weekly losses. We
saw three winners (LMS.v, PRG.v, STS.v), three unchanged stocks (AUL.v, COCO.v, MTU.v) and
four losers (DMX.v, NINE.cse, PA.v, VAU.v) but the larger size of winners such as Latin Metals
(LMS.v up 17.2%) did just enough to counter the more moderate losers.
TinyCaps, 2023 weekly tracker
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
16
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2yluj
source: IKN calcs, TSX data
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future
I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
Next week
Apologies.
Market Watching
Next week
Apologies
Conclusion
IKN737 is done, we end with bullet points:
 A short edition that would have been even shorter if it weren’t for the San Juan election
news this evening. The likelihood of Libero (LBC.v) receiving its drill permits in the near
future still isn’t 100%, but it got a whole lot more probable. There’s a trade here for
those who aren’t turned off by the scumbags running the show.
 Equally, we remind readers that another way of playing Esperanza may be via Latin
Metals (LMS.v), the optioners.
 Looking for a continued recovery from copper this week.
 I’m off to bed.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stock is Minera Alamos (MAI.v). Flash
updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best wishes, Mark

Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/07/schedule-for-week-of-july-2-2023.html
(2) https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/libero-copper-provides-update-on-projects-832825679.html
(3) https://sanjuan.losandes.com.ar/economia/mineria-en-san-juan-que-piensa-hacer-marcelo-orrego/
(4) https://www.diariohuarpe.com/nota/elecciones-empleo-aborto-marihuana-y-mineria-segun-marcelo-orrego-
20236308410
(5) https://www.lanacion.com.ar/politica/san-juan-cerraron-los-comicios-con-los-unac-aun-molestos-con-la-corte-y-una-
oposicion-confiada-nid02072023/
(6) https://www.advisor.ca/investments/market-insights/global-mining-sector-outlook-brighter-fitch/
(7) https://www.reuters.com/article/kinross-ma-endeavour-ming-idUSL4N38L3YV
(8) https://www.endeavourmining.com/media/news/endeavour-announces-sale-its-non-core-boungou-and-wahgnion-
mines
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2022
Closed in 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
Goldshore Res GSHR.v Nov'22 C$0.18 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 88.9% Quick profit taken
Palamina Corp PA.v Dec'22 C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.08 -72.9% Clear-out of underperformer
Pure Gold PGM.h Dec'22 C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.015 -89.3% tiny trade on vh risk, went Ch11
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Set-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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