6 The IKN Weekly, issue 736 — Jun 26, 2023
The IKN Weekly
Week 736, June 25th 2023
Contents
This Week: In Today’s Edition, In Soviet Russia Mercenary Employ you, Mr. Powell Goes To
Washington.
Fundamental Analysis: The State of the New Union (an overview of recent stock ideas and
updates on some of our main holdings).
Stocks to Follow: Surge Copper (SURG.v), AbraSilver (ABRA.v), Faraday Copper (FDY.to),
Contango ORE (CTGO), Rugby Resources (RUG.v), SolGold (SOLG.to) (SOLG.l).
Copper Basket: Overview, Western Copper & Gold (WRN.to), Libero Copper (LBC.v), Pan
Global Resources (PGZ.v).
Producer Basket: Overview, Wesdome (WDOFF) (WDO.to), Newmont (NEM).
TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Viva Gold (VAU.v).
Regional Politics: Ecuador: The first serious election polls put Luisa González ahead, Mexico:
The legal actions against AMLO’s Mining Law, Heavy rainfall in Chile, Peru: Previewing the next
round of protests, Peru: Teck’s Zafranal copper project gets an important agreement,
Market Watching: New momentum for American Eagle (AE.v).
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
In Today’s Edition
After a few weeks in which the intro section didn’t have anything special to say, the
events in Russia this weekend sparked reminded this desk of exactly why it’s good,
right and proper to own some gold. Throw in a few tracking charts and some thoughts
on what Jerome Powell had to say for himself at Congress last week and you have your
1,800 word warm-up act.
As for today’s main event, there’s an end point or limit to new stocks ideas we can
feature on these pages, simply because there aren’t that many decent junior mining
companies out there. As such and after the recent flurry of stocks and companies new
to The IKN Weekly, we take stock, consider the newbies as a group, as well as getting
up to speed with some of the larger and more important positions held. That’s today’s
main Fundies section, The State of the New Union.
In this week’s Regional Politics, more good news for the mining sector coming from
Peru, but that is tempered by the likelihood of an uptick in wider political unrest as from
next month. We also note more challenges to the new mining law in Mexico, heavy
rains in Chile (for once), plus an early read on the upcoming election in Ecuador where
Rafael Correa’s candidate leads the pack.
One item in ‘Market Watching’ this week, as we re-open soft coverage on American
Eagle (AE.v) due to the renewed interest in the NAK project, caused by a simple looking
NR and some juicy looking core photos from its latest hole. No assays yet and the
program is about to add risk and potential reward as well via its next hole.
Other things, too. There are always other things.
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In Soviet Russia mercenary employ you
As the fun in Russia this weekend abates and the conspiracy theorists take the stage for
another round of best-guesses* this desk sits back, scratches its head about what’s been going
on and simply points to a couple of salutary financial reminders:
It’s good to own gold bullion.
Geopolitical events do not affect the gold price…much.
As the first reports of the Wagner Group moves came Friday evening, the former was the first
thought. No matter where you draw the line on your financials, be it overall net wealth, your
long-term assets, your overall stock/bond portfolio or merely your mining stock profile, having
gold as a backstop brings its own peace of mind.
Second, as events unfolded on Saturday morning and your author observed from the sidelines
as the social media commentariat kicked into gear, so came the reminder how geopolitical
events no longer affect the price of gold, not in any real way at least and not in our modern
world. The newsflow even got me scooting back to the op-ed intros from early 2022 in which I
made the same point, as Russian troops and war machines massed on the borders of Ukraine,
then invaded and started the whole sorry affair we still witness today. Indeed, the intro to
IKN668 dated March 6th will be the last time I’ll ever make this mistake, here’s an excerpt:
My adult life has been one in which (and to quote myself from the last three
weeks’ worth of Weeklies) geopolitical events do not affect the price of gold,
not in the long-term anyway. However, the Ukraine war is no petty border
dispute any longer, it has caused a seismic shift in the way the world’s
financial system works and yes, that matters. This major shift since February
2022 has nuclear weapons as its cleavage point, it’s the first time in decades
they have been used as a threat, not merely a deterrent, by a country wishing
to force its philosophy on others. That means the world has really changed
and really for the worse. Gold will become more expensive as a result.
Ah, the benefits of hindsight. Up to that weekend I’d remained on course and correct in the
run-up to the invasion, but changed position as Russian soldiers threatened to march directly
into Kiev and that was the mistake. And indeed gold did spike higher and topped U$2,000/oz,
but it was only temporary as it’s only ever temporary, the effects wore off quickly the change in
geopolitical backdrop was soon incorporated into the
price of gold along with most other things. Indeed, the
gold price driver soon shifted from conflict in Ukraine to
the policy shift signalled by the US Federal Reserve as it
realized its “temporary” inflation blip was going to be
tougher to control than first imagined. We also know
what happened there.
No, instead we got the call right a couple of weeks
earlier, in IKN664 dated February 13th 2022. That
weekend we ran the chart of gold you see to your right,
1978 to date (early 2022) and then posed these
questions:
“Does the above chart show the effects on the gold price of…
…Russia’s invasion of The Crimea?
…the fall of the Berlin Wall?
…The Chinese Student revolution and eventual Tiananmen Square
massacre?
…Israel’s bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities?
…Y2K?
…The Kuwait invasion?
…The Invasion of Iraq by Allied forces?
…Brexit?
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…September 11th 2001?”
Once done with the rhetoricals, we supplied an answer:
“All of those were significant geopolitical moments for the world, some of
them highly significant with long-term policy impacts. All made world
headlines, all had life-changing effects on least part of the world’s population
and all of them are very difficult to spot on that price chart for gold. It’s not
the first time we’ve made this point, it’s a simple one and it and belies a
common misconception in the market: Geopoliticals do not affect the
price of gold.”
IKN736 back and at the time, I even underlined and bold-typed that last line so, to make use of
another slice of 20/20 hindsight, my error in changing position from the correct longview of
IKN664 to the “this time is different” mistake in IKN668 may have been due to our son having
just arrived (IKN668 was the first since the happy event, I certainly remember the lack of
sleep). But whatever, this weekend and the Wagner fun were a sharp echo of the events of 16
months ago and the way in which the world overreacts to A Big Thing, be it realized or merely
potential. Yesterday Saturday morning the markets were closed, but gold (and other things)
were talked up quickly, so perhaps we would have seen a sharp spike higher on Monday
morning in classic knee jerk style, but time and experience says it would not have lasted, like
every other moment of geopolitical upheaval witnessed during my adult life. Check that long-
term chart above again if you don’t believe me and perhaps while you’re there, consider how
gold’s price is not static and does move up and down over the years, but for different reasons.
It’s not geopolitical events that move gold, it’s financial events and the macro business
backdrop that matters, for example position taken by the US Federal Reserve on the economics
and state of play in the world’s largest economy. More on that below.
The aforementioned IKN664 dated February 13th 2022 came in the days leading up to the
Russian invasion of Ukraine and its intro finished with these words:
“Last week was a prime example of how gold does not make you rich, instead
it stops you from becoming poor. … That’s the real luxury of gold ownership.”
True then, true now, own gold for the right reasons of security and insurance, don’t pretend it’s
there for speculation and alpha. Meanwhile and for fun and profit, its miners will always feel
more effect from the decisions made at a macro financial level and for the next instalment of
that, we now move to the other main event of last week.
*You never know, one or two of them may even be right. Or at least close to something akin to what went on. But it’s
another layer of guesswork to know which theory to believe and ultimately, I really don’t care much.
Mr. Powell Goes To Washington
Work it, Make it, Do it, Makes us
Harder, Better, Faster, Stronger
Daft Punk, 2001
For want of a better term, the highlight of Jerome Powell’s Semiannual Monetary Policy Report
to Congress testimony last week came when he explained to the members of Congress that
Goldilocks is in the house and while everything was fine and under control, it’s going to take a
couple more rate hikes to finish the job. There are a couple of moments to choose from his
Q&A but this segment of the exchange is typical (1):
Powell: “If we see the economy performing about as we expect, then two-thirds of the
committee really thought it would be appropriate to raise rates a couple of times
between now and the end of the year. So what do we expect?
We expect continued modest growth, we expect continued gradual cooling off of the
labour market, gradual better alignment of supply and demand, we expect inflation to
be improving. So with…so if all those things happen, we think we’re within a couple
of rate hikes of the level we need to get to. We want to get to a level where we’re
confident that inflation is and will continue to move down to 2% over time, that level
and not a higher level. And that’s why we’ve slowed down here, as we think we’re
getting close to that level.”
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Question from committee: “Okay so let’s think out past that. What factors are you
going to look at to determine a lowering of interest rates?”
Powell: “So we don’t see that happening anytime soon. The test for that is that we’re
confident that inflation is moving back down to our 2% goal. We want to have some
confidence, so I will say in the summary of economics projections (SOE) that my
participants and I filed last week, I think by the end of next year, by the end of 2024,
the median participant did have some rate cuts. But that’s going to depend on how
the economy performs and inflation is just consistently proven more persistent than
we’ve expected and that other forecasters have expected. So it’s going to have to
await a time when we’re confident that inflation is moving down to 2%.”
It was a measured performance that went down well with the market, but once considered in
isolation the contents look flimsy. On the one hand, we’re assuaged by “gradual” and “modest”
changes and inflation in a carefully controlled soft landing. On the other and almost in the same
breath (and why I took time to transcript this section), he tells Committee the outcome is
difficult to predict, inflation has been more stubborn than they expected and it’s not easy to
make projections on when rates start to drop. In other words, absolute confidence as to why
what has just happened has happened, wide-ranging doubts and “Hey don’t blame me if…”
caveats for anything in the future. A masterful performance, one that any chartist of technical
analyst would applaud and envy and up in the peanut gallery, we’re left to conclude that rates
are going to be higher for longer to make America faster and stronger. The result?
The market has another Road To Damascus moment and “discovers” the Fed is willing to drag
The USA intro recession if required in order to tame inflation. Apparently, hearing this same
message from Jay Powell virtually every single month since Jackson Hole wasn’t enough, they
needed to hear it again. The reaction is as per textbook, the US Dollar rallies (above left), near-
dated bonds preferred, the yield curve inverted dumps further (our chart above right of 10yr
minus 2yr down another four spots from last weekend to -0.97%) and of course, the improving
yield of the US and its safe as houses bonds (we’ll see about that later) is enough to pull more
money out of the Pet Rock:
GLD gold holdings, 2023 to date (metric tonnes)
960
955
950
945
940
935
930
925
920
915
910
905
900
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32/1/3 32/1/01 32/1/71 32/1/42 32/1/13 32/2/7 32/2/41 32/2/12 32/2/82 32/3/7 32/3/41 32/3/12 32/3/82 32/4/4 32/4/11 32/4/81 32/4/52 32/5/2 32/5/9 32/5/61 32/5/32 32/5/03 32/6/6 32/6/31 32/6/02
mt
6.80 GLD: Inventory/Price Ratio, 2023 to date
source: SPDR GLD data
6.60
6.40
6.20
6.00
5.80
5.60
5.40
5.20
5.00
4.80
32/1/3 32/1/01 32/1/71 32/1/42 32/1/13 32/2/7 32/2/41 32/2/12 32/2/82 32/3/7 32/3/41 32/3/12 32/3/82 32/4/4 32/4/11 32/4/81 32/4/52 32/5/2 32/5/9 32/5/61 32/5/32 32/5/03 32/6/6 32/6/31 32/6/02
Source: SPDR data, IKN calcs
GLD inventories drop another 7 metric tonnes and our sentiment reading continues at lower-
than-low washout 5.2X (we left in the 6x line to remind you of what is the traditional
“sentiment washout” level of this ratio chart). On Twitter* last Thursday (2), one of your
author’s observation got some modest traction (3)…
…and while published in semi-jest, contains enough truth to be amusing and one of the good
things about Tweets is that they are time stamped,
which makes it easy to look back and see exactly
when I was thinking that way on Thursday (right).
Sure enough and for no particular reason, that’s
when gold bottomed and managed a small relief
rally into the Friday close, even as the US Dollar
climbed. Another reminder that while gold and the
dependent mining stocks may be going through a
period of drudgery, there’s a bottom to the price
and there’s also money to be made once the
complex reverts and rebounds. And it will. It always
does.
*Come join in the fun, would be glad to see you over there
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
The State of the New Union (an overview of recent stock ideas and updates on some
of our main holdings)
Preamble
It wasn’t a carefully thought out plan or strategy. For one reason or another, The IKN Weekly
has featured several companies either new to its pages, or that hadn’t previously seen detailed
coverage, in the last few editions. That struck me as a reflection late last week while putting
the finishing touches to the Surge Copper note in IKN735 and it came as a something of a
surprise, not least because I don’t normally uncover many companies, stocks or stories that
pass muster or offer a fundamentally sound trade advantage. The sudden flurry is therefore
partly chance, but also of course a function of price, with the recent market downturn turning
reasonably priced companies into true value propositions or cheap and interesting small caps
into knockdown bargains worthy of your consideration.
However, there aren’t and will never be a bottomless pit of good juniors to consider, not least
because there really aren’t that many good junior mining companies on the TSX/V (and from a
pool of 1,500 or so, that means a lot of filtering goes on). So instead of continuing the series,
this week we take stock of recently featured companies and add any outstanding thoughts on
what we’ve seen and heard from them in the last few weeks, as well as considering their price
action and trading cadence. The companies in this first part of today’s ad hoc review are:
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Marimaca Copper (MARI.to)
Equinox Gold (EQX)
Western Exploration (WEX.v)
Latin Metals (LMS.v)
Surge Copper (SURG.v)
Stocks listed in approximate order of interest. With those done, we then move to update on
some of our main holdings. Some of them have news and events to report, others have been
quiet as we await the next round of news and/or results, but thery all deserve at least a word
as the share prices have often changed and when price changes, so do risk and opportunity.
The companies in this second part of today’s ad hoc review are:
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v)
QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v)
Minera Alamos (MAI.v)
Amerigo Resources (ARG.to)
Newcore Gold (NCAU.v)
Again, the above order is less about the personal size or long-term enthusiasm for the
company, more about the recent news and potential/current price drivers worth your thought
and consideration. For each company you get a short write up and if applicable, thoughts on
any news events. There’s also a 2023 year-to-date price chart for each one, as well as other
charts for a couple of the stocks that need some extra price action focus. So with no further
ado and note on ten companies to get through…
Thoughts and news on some of our newly featured companies
Marimaca Copper (MARI.to)
Though we’ve watched the company for quite a while via The Copper Basket, our first pass look
at the details of Marimaca Copper came only recently
in IKN732, dated May 28th and the main fundies
note “Marimaca Copper (MARI.to): Compelling
copper economics.” That weekend it had just seen its
price fall off a bit of a cliff and drop to $3.50 during
the preceding week, finally closing the weekend at
$3.65 and sure enough, those prices didn’t last for
long as this 2023 YTD chart shows:
MARI is back up to $4.11 this weekend and what’s
more, last week saw it get some very significant
backing as Japan’s Mitsubishi became its latest
strategic backer. Here’s the NR from last week (4)
and here’s the bit that matters:
Mitsubishi will subscribe for an aggregate 4,640,371 units (“Units”) consisting of one
common share (a “Common Share”) and one Common Share purchase warrant (a
“Warrant”) at a price of C$4.31 per Unit. Each Warrant will entitle Mitsubishi to
purchase one additional Common Share at an exercise price of C$5.60 for a period of
24 months following the closing of the Strategic Investment. Following completion of
the Strategic Investment, Mitsubishi will own approximately 5.0% of Marimaca’s issued
and outstanding common shares on a non-diluted basis.
That’s strong endorsement for the company and the Marimaca project, but despite the news
MARI was unchanged last week, staying at C$4.11. That’s probably because the decision to
bring on a serious strategic such at Mitsu also signals that the company is going to have to get
to its proposed Feasibility Study stage before any buyout offer is forthcoming and as work on
the Full/Definitive Feasibility Study starts soon, it means we’re not going to see any print until
late 2024 at best.
There was a fleeting window of opportunity to buy MARI at under $4.00 at the time, since then
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it’s been a solid $4.00+ stock. Any dip back to the $3.50-or-so level is the bargain buy
opportunity, but it’s beginning to look less likely. In the meantime, expect MARI to trade at the
behest of the copper spot price so if that re-takes U$4.00/lb in the near future, this stock can
provide leverage along with a whole lot of fundamental backbone for your money.
Equinox Gold (EQX)
Subject of our main fundies note in IKN730 dated May 14th 2023 “Equinox Gold (EQX) (EQX.to):
A true value mid-cap”, the YTD chart shows that since then EQX has managed to stay away
from the year lows, on the other the immediate gains our trade enjoyed when buying on the
day of the May lows have eroded away in the last couple of weeks. But for what it’s worth, I’m
not too concerned at this point.
This second chart is why:
EQX was down on the week but it was all on Monday (Canada) and Tuesday (USA and Canada
due to Juneteenth) and the stock put in a decent rally on the last two days of the week while
GDX and GDXJ remained flat. This is a speculative quotient of EQX and the beta it offers at the
current gold price deck, compared with other stocks that don’t bring the same mix to the table:
Highly liquid stock
Organic growth baked in
Tier 2 gold producer of over 500k oz per year
High relative cash cost providing boom line leverage to current gold price
Most larger miners don’t come with such a high cash cost. That’s a different way of saying their
mines are better quality and I’d be the first to agree on that, but that’s not why I bought and
am holding EQX. Instead, it allows the speculative leverage I’m looking for in a non-big, non-
long-term investment position. If, as I strongly suspect, gold rallies and the market starts to re-
rate EQX in the run-up to Greenstone’s first pour (currently on time and budget) we can book a
neat win and walk away. If not, it will turn into a spec trade that failed but those aren’t the
lifeblood of a junior portfolio such as mine. The big, long-term trades such as Minera Alamos
and Amerigo are different in character, this is a trade with a specific objective, I’ll take profits
quickly if and when they are offered.
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Western Exploration (WEX.v): The placement is closed and though it didn’t raise its full
amount, WEX now has more than enough to move forward on its plans. The newsflow should
begin in the next week or two and we’re most looking forward to getting the drills turning.
Until then we wait.
Latin Metals (LMS.v)
We opened coverage on LMS in IKN734 dated June
11th 2023 in the fundamental Analysis note “Latin
Metals (LMS.v): A formal introduction”, after having
followed the stock via the TinyCaps basket for a
couple of years. So with just two extra weeks under
the belt not much has changed and as the right hand
side of the YTD chart shows, the stock is still trading
on a wide bid/ask and any sort of volume (in either
direction) moves it quickly.
Watch list only for the time being, with the next likely
catalyst being a deal struck on its Lachsa copper
project as it farms out to a large miner.
Surge Copper (SURG.v): Our final new coverage
company in recent weeks, SURG showed up just one
week ago and as such, there’s no new news to report
on the company. I can report that the constructive
mail conversation continued between this desk and
CEO Nilsson continued last week and the subject
turned to relative valuation of SURG compared to peer
stocks (unsurprisingly, the SURG CEO believes his
stock to be undervalued and to be fair, I largely
agree).
Bottom line to new holdings: The Marimaca (MARI.to) news last week really caught the eye
of this desk and franks its quality project, but equally it wasn’t that much of a surprise to see
the market shrug it off and leave the stock price unchanged. As a fundies guy, it has given me
another reason to make MARI my next copper purchase and what’s left to do now is find a
good bargain hunter’s entry point. Something under $4.00 would be acceptable. As for the
others, only EQX really has my attention in the near term. For one because it’s one of the
companies in which I won shares (not just added to the Watch List), for another it’s the one we
want to trade on near-term strength in gold and on that, the signs are right. Western (WEX.v)
has been slower to get to this point than I would have liked and the price drop means it would
have been better to have waited, but we’re now at the point when it will start generating its
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own news and there’s a lot to like here, both in team make-up and project.
Now for part two of our whistlestop tour through Stocks to Follow, and…
Thoughts and news on some of our main holdings
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v): As noted in IKN735 last weekend, we did indeed get the NR from the
company last week (5) to confirm receipt of U$5m in sales tax (VAT, or IVA as it’s known in
Chile) from the government. That news went down well with the market, as did a new round of
well sourced gossip picked up by this desk that the appeals process for the Fenix project was
now moving forward and though we still don’t have a date for the appeal meeting, we do know
that the relevant public sector desks such as SEA and ministries involved are now reading and
considering final reports on the case.
We also know, via the useful government portal website Infolobby, that Rio2 has been busy
putting its case forward. In Chile, the lobbying of government representatives (ministers etc) is
done under strict and specific guidelines that ensure transparency via its so called “Lobby Law”.
One of the benefits is to know exactly who the government is meeting, when and how many
times and all this information is collated and offered to the public via its own dedicated website.
This link (6) takes you to the front page of Infolobby and you need to use the search function
from there, but once you do and you put in the right keywords and time windows, you get to
find out what Fenix Gold Limitada (the wholly-owned subsidiary or Rio2 Ltd in Chile) has been
up to in the last three months. Here’s a screenshot:
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For example, the page notes that the Chilean corporate secretary (Melodi Ávalos) has been to
18 meetings with government functionaries in the last three months, also that CEO Andrew Cox
has been at nine meetings. They’ve mostly met environmental bodies such as the SEA or the
people at the Ministry of the Environment, such as SEA head Valentina Durán (six meetings) or
her subordinate, Karla Flores (six times). This page covers just the last three months and
without going into the details of each meeting, it’s clear the company and its legal team has
been busy putting its case forward.
Obviously a lot hinges on the outcome of the eventual appeal and with the decision some kind
of mix between the technical and the political, there’s cannot be any guarantee of a positive
outcome. However, on the technical side I know that RIO.v at Fenix has done a whole lot of
extra work it has put forward voluntary level proposals for the care and monitoring of
environmental criteria that go above and beyond the legal requirements and has shown itself to
be willing to made concessions to the government of Chile where reasonable. It’s also done the
legwork to argue to the government that its permit application in 2022 was unfairly denied and
that the project adheres to all the legal and social requirements demanded of it be they water,
noise, community acceptance or those lovable little chinchillas at the centre of last year’s mess.
It’s also difficult for your author to remain unbiased as I have a clear vested interest in this
project getting its green light. I’m aware of my own bias but even so, by keeping as neutral a
standpoint as I can I cannot help but feel confident that Rio2 will get a favourable decision at
the Comite de Ministros when it hears its appeal. The risk is to the upside today and essentially,
that’s what we’re seeing in recent share price action and the market seems to agree. Therefore
it’s worth considering the scenario that assumes Fenix gets approval as if so, the company will
be able to get back to work almost immediately. Funds should be available from the Wheaton
(WPM) facility and then RIO will get to work re-forming the debt financing package for most of
the rest, however we understand that at least a portion of the capex will likely be covered by a
new equity raising (I cannot blame instos that have stood by the company for wanting their
reward in the form of a cheap share entry point).
With RIO at 24c this weekend, it’s almost back at my previously mooted logic equity price of
25c and that makes sense, with the appeal meeting now in the near future. If successful I’d
expect the stock to jump smartly, but we’re not going directly back to the 70c levels of yore and
I’d expect the price jump to cap at around 40c in the first stage. Then, with capex covered and
the build-out back underway, RIO.v will begin its climb back from whence it came.
It’s also worth considering the bad news scenario, as a negative from the Comtie de Ministros
would be bad news for the stock price and there’s no doubt about that, but it wouldn’t be the
ned of the process either. For one RIO would be able to file suit against Chile in the
international tribunals, for another (and though the government try to hide the fact), the appeal
decision is not final and the company would have the opportunity to appeal to Chile’s highest
courtrooms. Neither of these are great options of course, but it’s worth noting because a
negative from the government of Chile would not be the end of the process or the necessary
death of the company.
Overall, I know RIO.v has done good work in the year since its permit denial and we also know
the political backdrop has changed significantly for Chile and its government under Gabriel
Boric. He has lost the luxury of being a Left wing ideologue and must now take a more
pragmatic, pro-business approach else see his lame duck presidency turn into a dead and
roasted duck. This augurs well for RIO.v and with the evidence it will be able to bring to the
table that it complies with all the rules and regulations, the only thing that could really stop a
favourable decision is a government that decides to take a political stand against mining. Which
would be weird, because this is the very same government that will tender out the Maricunga
salt flats for lithium production to the highest bidder soon, a project that is literally in the line of
sight of Fenix.
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QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v)
On Thursday June 22nd (three days ago) QCCU came clean. The NR entitled “QC Copper
Updates on Opemiska Resource” (7) did some framing and later went into explanation of the
process, but the magic line was in there:
“This process is nearing completion, although the report is not expected to be
published in the current quarter.”
Now we know and so much for its “will be by end 2q23” the last time around. This means a
delay for the MRE for a third time and that’s not good. QCCU provided extra on the situation
the same day in this YouTube video posted to its channel (8) in which the two men at the
centre of this extended delay, company CEO Stephen Stewart and VP Ex Charles Beaudry
offered a video that starts with some unintended humour. Once CEO Stewart had introduced
the conversation he handed over to VP Beaudry and the first thing he says is, “So the bottom
line is that yes, we’ve had delays” and that’s fair enough, it’s good to come clean but in his very
next sentence he says, “It’s not that we’ve had delays.” Which made me smile that ironic smile.
VP Beaudry then goes on to qualify with, “It’s difficult to predict how long these things take”
which raised another ironic smile on the face of your author…we knew that already.
However, it’s also worth noting that even though the stock price dropped on the news last
week, it stayed firmly inside its recent trading range. That’s probably because QCCU hasn’t
attracted much speculative trades or capital on the run-up to the non-MRE release and those
holding the stock are almost certainly people like
me (perhaps you), i.e. long-term holders that have
already been battered around by the late arrival of
this MRE and the type of investor willing to shrug
and say “Well okay, it sucks but if you need another
quarter, go ahead.”
With sarcasm and irony now laid firmly to one side,
it’s time for some realistic comment and to begin, I
am forced to admit the contents of the video posted
to YouTube helped assuage any doubts I may have
had. Unless Charles Beaudry is an Academy Award
level actor (highly doubt) he’s not faking his
enthusiasm for Opemiska, nor is he making up whining or unbelievable excuses for the late
arrival of the MRE. It’s clear that this small team probably bit off more than they could chew
when re-tooling the project into a larger bulk tonnage that captures more of the lower grading
halo and “turns waste into ore”, as their snappy saying goes (he used it in the video again).
Also, if it take another quarter to get the data right “once and for all” (Beaudry dixit) and make
for plainer sailing down the line when it comes to financing or vending the project, then so be it
too. And we on the outside need to take a practical stance as well, because the delay this time
may come as a blessing in disguise. It was a negative the last time around because QCCU
misses out on the copper rally in early 2023, but with the market the way it is at the moment
and likely to remain flaccid through the Northern summer, if QCCU cannot deliver in June I’d
take September 2023 (i.e. the last month of Q3 as second option, instead of rushing it to get it
out during July when nobody is paying attention.
So I’m cutting QCCU some slack on this delay and if the market has perked up by the time it
delivers its complete and reliable new MRE, with higher tonnage, lower grade, lower cut-off and
a lot more copper contained in the mine plan, I’ll be happy enough.
Minera Alamos (MAI.v)
There’s not much to report on our Top Pick since our last update, our check of the 1q23
numbers in IKN dated June 4th. I checked in with company President Doug Ramshaw late last
week and probed on what we could expect by way of production from Santana in 2q23 (we’re
less than a week away from end Q2) as well as any progress on the Cerro de Oro permitting
process.
11
Regarding Santana, we can expect the type of subdued production as guided by the company,
so no surprises there. However, the company’s plans for stronger production in the second half
of 2023 is going to plan and they have already beefed up the personnel count on site. On the
thorny issue of water he was cautiously optimistic that the problems are now behind the mine
(he’s got leery about making blasé assumptions on this subject) and that’s fair enough. I’d
expect MAI will have better data to offer once the 2q23 production NR comes out. Finally, the
resource expansion drilling has been going to plan and they should have the first results back
from the labs soon, perhaps as early as this coming week. The first target they’ve chosen is
Zata and the company isn’t going to guess based on core visuals, either: This is a low grade
bulk tonnage and you can’t spot the gold or make educated guesses on grade.
As for Cerro de Oro, the process is “driving forward” and on schedule. I didn’t get any details
(non-public material stuff) but President Ramshaw did mention that the company enjoys fluid
and open communications with the relevant
authorities in Mexico and both sides seem to be
happy about the progress, but that doesn’t mean
we’ll get news or permits sooner, this is bureaucracy
and there’s a clear schedule to adhere to.
As the YTD chart shows, we’re down at minimums
for the year and though it looks like a sad chart, it’s
no worse or better than the GDXJ this year. Nothing
a pop in the gold price and a decent guidance NR for
the second half of the year won’t fix. Finally, please
note that President Ramshaw continues to buy
shares in the open market and added 135,000 to his
holding last week. He now owns 9,138,500 shares.
Amerigo Resources (ARG.to): I’ve put a mail in with the company to check on whether its
operations have been affected by the recent heavy
rains in Chile, but even if there has been a stoppage in
the last few days, it wouldn’t be anything more than a
temporary slip. ARG has continued to stay strong at
market and as soon as copper rebounded back over
U$3.80/lb, price action on the open market strongly
suggest the company is back buying stock under its
NCIB facility. The latest 3c quarterly dividend was
distributed on time last week, which makes 20c total
since this policy was re-instated in last 2021. Overall,
ARG is doing exactly what it is supposed to do in the
portfolio by providing a solid and reliable base for one
of the biggest personal positions. My only small regret
is having sold a few recently in order to fund the EQX
trade, a decision that is so far a wash. It will pay to be a long-term holder fo this stock, highly
recommended position.
Newcore Gold (NCAU.v)
The final company in our brief overview today is Newcore, which still has its recently announced
(9) placement open but that is scheduled to close this coming week, on June 28th. The
financing was fully taken within 24 hours of being announced and we’ll find out on Wednesday
if they’ve expanded its range by any amount. The plan was to sell 33,333,333 units at 15c each
(unit = share + half warrant priced at 20c) in order to raise gross proceeds of $5m.
The YTD chart shows how NCAU’s share price first pointed everyone to a 15c raising and then
has stayed there while the placement is taking place. Once closed, we’ll see if the team has any
12
plans to stoke momentum a little. Very cheap at this price, after all it was cheap at the 20.5c I
paid. Holding but not adding for the moment, it needs to finds market traction first.
Bottom line to current main holdings: I’m trying hard not to get too over-enthusiastic
about the likelihood Rio2 is awarded its permit on appeal, but it’s getting difficult to contain the
optimism as the date approaches. Not only have things fallen into line on the macro political
scene in Chile, but the company has been covering all its perceived weak points and will
present a strong case, offering the Comite all the opportunity it needs to approve. There is the
danger that the Boric government decides to take a political stand and appease its enviro wing,
there’s no denying that, but the weight of evidence is now against that likelihood and it’s at
worst possible, while the approval is now more probable than not. Put a gun to my head and I’d
call it an 80/20 chance that Rio2 gets the decision it deserves and can get on with the real job
of building its mine again.
Meanwhile, Minera Alamos will likely benefit more from a general pick-up in the gold stocks
market than anything from the company in its 2q23 results, it’s been trading in-line with GDXJ
and is likely to continue doing that until production really begins to pick up in Q3 and Q4. As for
QCCU, NCAU and Amerigo, all those will get time but at least in the case of Amerigo, it
continues to deliver in style as we hold it. The others have things to prove, but they will get the
benefit of the doubt for then moment (not leasty because the assets are highly undervalued.
Stocks to Follow
A week in which gold dropped 1.9% (GLD proxy), the main precious metals miner ETF (GDX)
dropped 5.1% and its junior cousin (GDXJ) dropped 5.3% is never going to be good for a
portfolio such as The IKN Weekly Stocks to Follow, so before we get to the bad news we raise
two cheers for AbraSilver (ABRA.v up 16.0%) and Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v up 29.7%), not only our only
two winners from the list but also solid percentage gains in each case. We then get half a cheer
for the four UNCH stocks on the week (NCAU.v, OCI.v, MIRL.cse, MARI.to).
That leaves the losers, all fourteen of them and while there wasn’t so much damage done at
the top of the list, we still have including Watchlisters Contango (CTGO down 22.1%), Rugby
Resources (RUG.v down 18.2), then our long-term accumulation in the non-miner, Mene
(MENE.v down 10.0%) and finally, our only larger holding to have been hit extra hard, SolGold
(SOLG.to down 10.9%). And I know I get accused of rose-tinted specs when writing this on a
bad down week but it really could have been worse for the portfolio, as most of the major
holdings taking dents to the armour instead of nasty injuries.
We’re now up to a full quota of 20 stocks in our table thanks to the arrival of Surge Copper
(SURG.v) to the Watch List., our self-imposed maximum number of covered stocks and 13 of
them owned personally. Eight stocks are in the green, twelve are in the red but that negative
ratio can change in the twinkling of an eye. This is junior mining, after all.
13
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.315 50.0% $0.75 first tgt, #1 idea
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Amerigo Res ARG.to STR BUY C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.51 11.1% Main Cu trade, top fundies
SolGold SOLG.to STR BUY C$0.265 19-Feb-23 C$0.285 7.5% Cu in Ecuador, M&A tgt
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v BUY C$0.265 25-Apr-21 C$0.155 -41.5% MRE due this month
Equinox Gold EQX SPEC BUY U$4.46 30-May-23 U$4.60 3.1% Au leverage trade
Faraday Copper FDY.to hold C$0.79 26-Mar-23 C$0.74 -6.3% Latest Cu exploreco, IKN723
AbraSilver Res. ABRA.v BUY C$0.36 4-Dec-22 C$0.29 -19.4% added for last time Mar'23
Western Explor. WEX.v BUY C$1.87 9-Apr-23 C$1.40 -25.1% Au spec in NV USA
Newcore Gold NCAU.v SPEC BUY C$0.205 23-Oct-22 C$0.15 -26.8% now financing. Bottom?
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v BUY C$0.83 22-Apr-18 C$0.24 -71.1% Cheap on permit probs, appeal
SPECULATIVE TRADES
Orecap inv OCI.v SPEC BUY C$0.04 20-Nov-22 C$0.035 -12.5% corp revamp, new strategy
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v SPEC BUY C$0.72 16-May-21 C$0.85 18.1% now in drill assay season
Minera IRL MIRL.cse avoid C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.025 -87.2% run into ground byCEO, AVOID
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
Marimaca Copper MARI.to WATCH C$3.65 26-May-23 C$4.11 12.6% Likely purchase soon
Latin Metals LMS.v WATCH C$0.15 11-Sep-22 C$0.145 -3.3% new to list, ´prospect gen
Surge Copper SURG.v WATCH C$0.11 18-Jun-23 C$0.105 -4.5% new on watchlist, Cu in BC CA
Rugby Resources RUG.v WATCH C$0.06 26-Mar-23 C$0.045 -25.0% tiny spec Cu in Col
Goldshore Res GSHR.v WATCH C$0.165 26-Mar-23 C$0.175 6.1% return to list, possible flip
Contango Ore CTGO WATCH U$23.25 2-Dec-22 U$24.50 5.4% Manh Choh finance now closed
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.63 6-Dec-20 C$0.27 -57.1% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2023 date closed close price
Altiplano Metals APN.v jan'23 C$0.31 17-Sep-21 C$0.17 -45.2% delayed and will dilute soon
Western Copper WRN.to mar'23 C$2.02 13-Nov-22 C$2.32 14.9% sold on reduced M&A prob.
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v may'23 C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$1.75 -43.0% Closing on legal action news
Amerigo Res ARG.to may'23 C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.48 8.8% sold 20% to raise cash
2015 to 2022 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on some of the covered companies:
Surge Copper (SURG.v): ADDED TO WATCH LIST. Our piece on SURG is above this week
in the main Fundies section, here we’ll simply note that as from this weekend it forms part of
the Watch List, now six companies big, and move on.
AbraSilver (ABRA.v): One of only two that returned a win, I did indeed do as threatened and
bought a few extras for a fliptrade early week, then fed them back before the close Friday. The
gain wasn’t massive and wider market conditions stopped ABEA from rallying back to a 3-
handle, but even a modest win is a win. I considered holding these extras through the weekend
and holding out for the inevitable better priced (it’ll trade back in the 30s soon enough, of that I
am sure) but portfolio management must be obeyed.
Faraday Copper (FDY.to): We’re still trading poorly and on relatively low volume, so seeing
the paint come off the tape and this drop back into the 70s wasn’t so surprising, but it’s still a
pain.
Contango ORE (CTGO): Want to know why I keep on banging on about traded voume in this
and other thinly traded juniors? Here’s why:
14
CTGO was sailing along nicely once again, trading in the U$30s until the last hour and ten
minutes of the week, when all of a sudden a
seller showed up. This two-day chart with five
minute intervals is a better visual on the way
the bid got popped every time something
showed and once the dust had settled, around
U$5.50 had been knocked off the share price,
or market equity of around U$42m…that’s a lot
for a sub-U$200m market capper.
To be honest, I don’t blame sellers at U$30 or
so, as its portion of Manh Choh justif ies that
price but it’s tough to see any extra value for
the time being. The value-add at CTGO will be
Lucky Shot and that’s a good little project in the
making, but it’s going to take a few years to get
into production and long before then, this year in fact, the company plans to raise capital to
fund exploration and resource development. CTGO is on the Watch List as it offers quality, low
risk gold mine that’s not so far away from producing and immediately throwing off significant
free cash flow. But it’s nly on a Watch List and not a personal holding because the price has to
be right for an entry and I’m looking for a bargain. U$24/share isn’t bad, but it’s still not cheap
enough to tempt me in.
Rugby Resources (RUG.v): On the Watch List for its interesting but obviously difficult
Cobrasco project in the Chocó region of Colombia, we’ve been waiting for Rug to do what it’s
just done for a while. Here’s the body of the NR from last week (10):
Vancouver, B.C., June 22, 2023 – Rugby Resources Ltd. (“Rugby” or the “Company”)
(TSX-V: RUG) announces that its board of directors has approved a proposed private
placement offering of up to 20,000,000 units (the “Units”) at a price of $0.05 per Unit
for gross proceeds of up to $1,000,000 (the “Offering”). Each Unit will consist of one (1)
common share and one common share purchase warrant (“Warrant”). Each Warrant
will entitle the holder thereof to purchase one (1) additional common share of the
Company for a period of two (2) years from the date of the close at an exercise price of
$0.15.
That was enough to pull the market price down to its 4.5c close and that makes sense, too.
Assuming the placement goes as planned and the cash raised, we’ll be looking for RUG to drill
in Colombia even though the use of proceeds line just says it “…will be used for exploration and
general expenses.” RUG has given us a couple of low-key NRs from its Argentine projects and
that’s fair enough, but we’re here for Cobrasco and until the drill starts turning there, it will
remain as a look-but-don’t-touch even at this weekend’s newly discounted price.
SolGold (SOLG.to) (SOLG.l): Your author tuned into the corporate presentation on Thursday
(7am local time, coffee in hand) and came away after nearly an hour (when the Q&A session
15
started getting near-repeat questions from the audience) nonplussed with the contents. There
was nothing particularly new and while M&A got most mention in the Q&A session, the
company kept its cards very close to its chest and only admitted there were a number of
companies in the data room under NDAs. CEO Caldwell mentioned there was no formal offer in
from anyone yet but we already knew that, as the London Stock Exchange rules are stricter
than anything in the Canadian bourses and any offer must be announced to the market on
receipt, no matter whether its subsequently rejected by the board or not.
In trading the stock gave up most of the gains added the week before as the NM&A rumours
did the rounds and Jiangxi’s newly enlarged position was digested. I’ll stick with my confident
prediction that we won’t see the fun start until after there’s resolution in the Ecuador
Presidential election. One that, please see today’s Regional Politics but please remember, I
think SOLF is one of the few projects in Ecuador that will benefit from Luisa winning and Rafa
back in control. It has the right mix of 1) less controversial address 2) size and 3) most
importantly, Chinese capitals as obvious main suitors.
The Copper Basket
After twenty-five weeks of 2023, The Copper Basket shows a loss of 6.89% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Solaris Res SLS.to 6.44 146.599 804.83 5.49 -14.8%
2 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.22 88.226 362.61 4.11 27.6%
3 Western Copper WRN.to 2.41 151.597 310.77 2.05 -14.9%
4 Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to 1.92 105.96 172.71 1.63 -15.1%
5 Oroco Res OCO.v 0.91 213.438 155.81 0.73 -19.8%
6 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.78 153.96 130.87 0.85 9.0%
7 Faraday Copper FDY.to 0.54 175.2 129.65 0.74 37.0%
8 Regulus Res. REG.v 1.10 124.509 108.32 0.87 -20.9%
9 Hot Chili HCH.v 0.78 119.455 107.51 0.90 15.4%
10 Pan Global Res PGZ.v 0.46 212.145 74.25 0.35 -23.9%
11 Kodiak Copper KDK.v 1.12 56.2 44.96 0.80 -28.6%
12 QC Copper QCCU.v 0.165 162.815 25.24 0.155 -6.1%
13 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.16 86.966 15.22 0.175 9.4%
14 Libero Copper LBC.v 0.155 93.869 7.98 0.085 -45.2%
15 Atacama Copper ACOP.v 0.16 35.94 5.03 0.14 -12.5%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg -6.89%
The basket average dropped by 1.73% this week to hit a new low for 2023, we’re now down by
6.89%. the negative week was driven by nine
losers (SLS.to, WRN.to, OCO.v, ASCU.to, ALDE.v, The Copper Basket 2023, weekly evolution
12%
REG.v, FDY.to, QCCU.v, ACOP.v) and while none 10%
8%
of those were double figure losers, we saw
6%
significant drops in more commonly held and 4%
followed junior explorecos such as Solaris (SLS.to 2%
0%
down 7.6%), Faraday (FDY.to down 7.5%) and
-2%
Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.to down 7.4%). The -4%
three winners on the week (PGZ.v, KDK.v, -6%
-8%
ECU.v) included two bigger movers in Pan Global
(PGZ.v up 12.9%) and Element 29 (ECU.v up
9.4%), both on the rebound after recent steep
drops. Without those, the overall basket loss
would have been that much worse. There are also three stocks that remained unchanged on
the week (MARI.to, HCH.v, LBC.v).
16
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81 ht52
source: IKN calcs
We’re one week away from the half-year progress snapshot and after looking promising for the
first month of Q2, this quarter has turned
into carnage. As our tracking chart (right)
shows, since the weekend of April 23rd it’s
been downhill all the way bar one single
week at the end of May and this week is
the cherry on the cake, we’re now at the
year low.
As for Copper-The-Metal, it was going okay
until Friday and that surge in the US Dollar,
which pushed down most things priced in
Greenbacks, nearly all commodities and
copper was no exception. On the subject,
we’ll move to our curated market
commentary links immediately and check
out this from Reuters, which summed up the major price mover on Dr. Copper nicely (11):
Copper prices in London were set for their first weekly decline in four weeks on Friday,
as a firm dollar made greenback-priced metals more expensive to holders of other
currencies.
Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange CMCU3 fell 0.5% to $8,532 per
metric ton by 0424 GMT. The contract was down 0.4% week-on-week.
The dollar rose, supported by a bout of risk aversion as hawkish comments from global
central banks, including the Federal Reserve, stoked fears that their aggressive
monetary tightening could push economies into a deeper downturn.
But as noted above, things were more promising earlier in the week before that dollar driven
price whack showed up. We move to carefully curated link #2 and the reason seems to be our
old friend, tight supply to end users. This report also goes into the effect LME cancelled
warrants have on the market and that’s good, as we pick up on the subject below. The
journalist did the writing to explain the theory so that I don’t have to (12):
Copper available to the market in London Metal Exchange (LME)approved
warehouses fell to the lowest level since October 2021 after large amounts of inventory
were earmarked to leave the LME system, data from the exchange showed on
Thursday.
Total stocks of copper in LME warehouses MCUSTX-TOTAL stand at 80,400 metric
tons. Of that 62.5% or 50,275 metric tons has been set aside or cancelled for
delivering out over coming weeks. This is compared with 42% previously.
LME stock data published with a two-day lag shows fresh cancellation of warrants —
documents that confer ownership — of 19,200 metric tons, mainly in New Orleans in
the United States where cancelled warrants now amount to 95% of the total stock.
Cancelling warrants indicates only an intention to take delivery of metal from LME
warehouses, it can be rewarranted.
Large warrant cancellations can cause concern about supplies on the LME market and
influence price differences between contracts along the maturity curve.
And to be clear, “rewarranted” is a cute word that means “financial speculators gaming the
market by putting tonnes on cancelled warrants, making it look as though the metal will be
delivered, then rolling it over to make sure it stays in the warehouse.” In other words, a way of
faking demand strength but at the moment, with stocks as low as they are, it’s far more of a
gamble to run this type of trade set-up and there’s more reasons to suppose that cancelled
warrant number is close to the genuine demand, That done, we turn to our regular weekly
segment on copper inventories as the bullish signal we identified this time last week has been
underscored and highlighted:
World copper stocks continued their downward trend last week, heading toward some
sort of reckoning in Q3. The three official world systems last week dropped by an
aggregate total of 10,689 metric tonnes (mt) and closed Friday at 166,804m. Price
bullish and don’t let anyone tell you otherwise.
SHFE stocks lost a biblically small 666mt on the week to close at 60,424mt, so see the
17
charts below for how that fits into
the evolution.
The big drop this time was at the
LME where we got a double
whammy of 11,325mt leaving the
warehouses and a new climb in
cancelled warrant tonnages, with
49,175mt now nominally slated to
leave. As the global total in LME
warehouses is now 79,300mt, that
means well over half its stock is now earmarked for delivery.
The outlier was again the minor add at the Comex, up 1,302mt on the week and
closing at 27,080mt. No biggie.
The second of the two dedicated SHFE charts is probably the best indication, with the trend
now steadily down. We’ll see what happens when we go under 50kmt.
Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2014 to date
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
18
31'13ceD dr32 ht51 ht7 ht03 dn22 ht71 ht9 ts1von ht42 ht71 ht01 dn2tcO 7102ts1naJ ht62 ht81 ht01 dr3ced ht52 102ht72rpa ht91 ht11 9102
dr3bef
102ht82rpa ts12 ht31 0202ht5naj 202ht92ram ts12 ht31 0202ht6ced ht82 dr32 ht51 ht7 202ht03naj ht42 ht71 ht9 3202
naJ
ht62 ht81
Mt Cu
|
source: Cochilco
SHFE copper inventory levels, 2018 to 2023
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
LME: 12 months of Cu tonnage under cancelled warrant
100000
90000
80000
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
MT Cu 2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
source: Cochilco data
Now for notes on a couple of our basket stocks, but not much this weekend:
Western Copper & Gold (WRN.to): We pointed at WRN last week as a possible fliptrade on
copper exposure, as it was down near its recent baseline price again and often shows the right
type of volatility for near-termers. But so far nothing, as the market continues to be leery about
the copper exploreco sector and WRN dropped even closer to its C$2.00-or abouts baseline.
Libero Copper (LBC.v): With only its die-hard fanclub left, LBC is at the stage in its collapse
that all true junior disasters reach, the one that never fails to remind your author of the famous
JK Galbraith quote; “In the choice between changing ones mind and proving there's no need to
do so, most people get busy on the proof.” Even when the situation goes from bad to worse to
total disarray, there will always be a section of an investment community that prefer to go
down with their junior exploreco ship rather than admit error. Leave LBC and other stocks like it
to them, there are always other companies and stories to consider.
ht42 ht8 dn22 ht5nuj ht91 dr3yluj ht71 ts13 ht41 ht82 ht11 ht52 ht9 dr32 ht6von ht02 ht4ced ht81 3202
naJ
ht51 02ts1naJ ht21 ht62 ht21 ht62 ht9 dr32 ht7yaM ts12 ht4nuJ ht81
mt Cu
source: LME/Cochilco
Pan Global Resources (PGZ.v): The biggest
week-over-week (WoW) winner on the list, but
that was more in function of the steep drop to
the 31c close last weekend than any sort of
interesting breakout, as this chart shows. PGZ
needs to deliver its own catalyst to market in the
form of positive exploration and drilling results,
its price action won’t change course without it.
The Producer Basket
After 25 weeks of 2023, the Producer Basket shows a gain of 1.29% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 47.20 799 33.22 41.58 -11.9%
2 Barrick GOLD 17.18 1761.54 28.99 16.46 -4.2%
3 Agnico Eagle AEM 51.99 488.9 24.01 49.11 -5.5%
4 Wheaton PM WPM 39.08 451.963 19.25 42.60 9.0%
5 Kinross Gold KGC 4.09 1256.1 5.79 4.61 12.7%
6 Alamos Gold AGI 10.11 393.1 4.61 11.72 15.9%
7 B2Gold BTG 3.57 1074.567 3.84 3.57 0.0%
8 Hecla Mining GFI 5.56 610.491 3.04 4.98 -10.4%
9 Eldorado Gold EGO 8.36 185.73 1.83 9.85 17.8%
10 Wesdome Gold WDOFF 5.53 147.526 0.73 4.95 -10.5%
All prices and stock quotes in U$ Port. avg 1.29%
All ten of our basket of ten stocks lost ground last week, behest to the downdraft in the sector
and the bearish atmosphere for equities in general, though we did manage to out-perform the
GDX benchmark by a few tenths and recoup some of the lost ground in our race, as we
approach the half-way point for 2023. Least worst on the week was Barrick (GOLD down
1.5%), while the downside outlier was once again Wesdome (WDOFF down 8.8%). Most of the
others lost between 3% and 5%. So as we come up to the 26 week checkpoint (next weekend,
charts and comments etc) the basket only just manages to keep its head above water.
The 2023 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
comparative to GDX control
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
Wesdome Gold (WDOFF) (WDO.to): To my
own surprise, Wesdome is almost back at the
lows seen early this year when the Middlemiss
departure compounded the negative sentiment
toward the stock and its delayed Kiena build-
out.
The market is signalling there’s more wrong at
19
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81 ht52
The 2023 Producer Basket: Percentage difference
between GDX benchmark & basket (negative = IKN ahead)
4.0%
ikn 3.5%
gdx control 3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
source: NYSE, IKN calcs ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81 ht52
source: IKN calcs, NYSE data
WDO than just that small hiccup delay due to the recent wildfire stand-down. We’re close to the
end of the quarter and even though WDOFF/WDO is back and at discount, I’m going to remain
leery (i.e. coward) until we get the production numbers from Eagle and Kiena for the quarter.
And, of course, EQX offers better risk/reward for the same type of exposure.
Newmont (NEM): This either belongs here or in the Regional Politics section, I’ve plumped for
here. On Friday morning Reuters tried to claim an “exclusive” on news out of Newmont’s
Peñasquito mine that had done the rounds in Mexico and in the Spanish language press all day
Thursday (13):
“"Due to interruptions in production caused by the union strike at Newmont's
Peñasquito mine in Mexico, force majeure has been declared with certain customers
for some of the mine's products," Newmont said in an emailed statement.”
The force majeur is on “some products” as NEM could not fill a standing order for zinc
concentrates. We’re unlikely to see the same on its gold products, as NEM refines its own
precious metals. Also on Thursday we got an op-ed written by Napoleón Gómez Urrutia,
General Secretary of the “National Union of Mine and Metal Workers of the Mexican Republic”
(Sindicato Nacional de Trabajadores Mineros, Metalúrgicos, Siderúrgicos y Similares de la
República Mexicana, or the snappy acronym of “SNTMMSySRM” and make sure that “y” is
lower case). In the op-ed in left-friendly daily newspaper Jornada (14), he touched on a
number of issues including the two separate industrial actions being taken by his union at this
time, Peñasquito and the Grupo Mexico San Martin mine. As regards Peñasquito, his position
and that of the 2,000 workers in his union (from a total full-time payroll of 2,800 at the mine is
(translated):
“…more than 2,000 affiliated mineworkers employed at the Newmont Peñasquito mine,
in Zacatecas State, decided collectively to use the strike mechanism due to the
violation of multiple clauses of their collective employment contract. The fair demand of
workers at the largest gold mine in Mexico is the revision of earnings to guarantee the
fair distribution of profits, as well as the non-compliance of payment for worked public
holidays. Also, the company has rejected the candidates put forward by the union to
cover its vacant places, despite this being agreed in the collective contract. What’s
more, workers demands to modify employment conditions have been ignored, leading
to safety issues ruling and therefore putting workers at danger.”
To date NEM doesn’t seem to have seen much of a share price hit from this stoppage and we’re
still waiting to see whether its petition to the courts to declare the strike invalid prospers.
The TinyCaps List
After 25 weeks of 2023, the TinyCaps show a gain of 9.20% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Aurelius Min AUL.v 0.07 49.787 1.00 0.02 -71.4%
Coast Copper COCO.v 0.045 64.001 2.88 0.045 0.0%
District Metals DMX.v 0.075 86.891 8.69 0.10 33.3%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.13 69.962 10.14 0.145 11.5%
Manitou Gold MTU.v 0.02 344.568 18.95 0.055 175.0%
Nine Mile Metals NINE.cse 0.29 57.025 5.13 0.09 -69.0%
Palamina Corp PA.v 0.08 65.285 6.53 0.10 25.0%
Precipitate Gold PRG.v 0.075 130.367 7.17 0.055 -26.7%
South Star STS.v 0.55 32.755 17.36 0.53 -3.6%
Viva Gold VAU.v 0.14 106.721 17.61 0.165 17.9%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 9.20%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
20
Market capitalization of under $20m. They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a
little and allowed sub-U$20m market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, but it was a particularly depressing exercise to trawl through the whole of the TSXV and find companies
that are small enough, but with life in them. The vast majority of sub-$20m stocks are broken stocks, either
traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2023. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
The TinyCaps are giving back all their gains and we’re TinyCaps, 2023 weekly tracker
50%
now at the lowest level since mid-January, when the 45%
basket was still getting into its stride. The two dead 40%
35%
stocks were the only unchanged on the week, i.e. the
30%
now vended Manitou (MTU.v) and Aurelius (AUL.v), still 25%
20%
frozen under a CTO due to its failure to file financials
15%
(clownshow). There were two gainers (DMX.v, PRG.v), 10%
both small moves in real terms. That leaves six losers 5%
0%
from the ten (COCO.v, LMS.v, NINE.cse, PA.v, STS.v,
VAU.v) with losses headed by Nine Mile (NINE.cse down
18.2%) and South Star (STS.v down 11.7%), that latter
having dropped precipitously from its recent high.
I’m not going to drone on and on about how broken NINE is or what a wild ride we’re getting
from STS every weekend, so just set of stock notes this week:
Viva Gold (VAU.v): This tinycap goldie with a project it’s moving near Tonopah NV USA filed
its Q2 financials on Friday evening (its financial YE is October 31st) and the money story of the
first half of its year can be summarized by the number “two million”
That’s what it has left at bank as at April 30th (end Q2)
That’s what it has spent in the first six months of its year
That’s what it has raised from the market via equity financing
To be exact, treasury stood at C$1.853, the net loss for six months was C$1.917m and net
proceeds from the 14.926m units it recently sold at 14c apiece (unit = share + full warrant at a
23c strike) came to C$2.032m, but you see what I mean. The result is that we can safely
assume VAU has the money available to execute on its current plans. They include delivering an
updated resource estimate and an updated during
this calendar year (they have decided against moving
the current PEA to PFS level, instead trying to
expand the project footprint first). However, the
simple math also shows that VAU will only have
enough money to get through the next two quarters
at this current clip, or three at most if we assume
most of the infill drilling for the upcoming MRE is now
in the books. It’s going to need to raise more
working cap at some point in late 2023, so perhaps
that will be timed around the 43-101 documents.
As for its price action, the 12 month chart shows that
VAU really hasn’t been that bad and has held its own in 2023 in a tough market. We included
VAU just after it got a re-rate on some decent RC drill results toward the end of last year and
unlike so many other tinycaps, it has managed to hold on to those gains. A good address and
every chance of delivering a small but economically robust open pit mine project to market later
this year.
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future
I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
21
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81 ht52
source: IKN calcs, TSX data
Regional politics
Ecuador: The first serious election polls put Luisa González ahead
Data Encuesta is one of only four polling companies that complies with the stipulations for
methodology and so forth as set out by the Ecuador Electoral people (CNE) and on Thursday,
they published (15) their first voter intention poll for the upcoming Presidential election, first
round August 20th. This survey comes with strong methodology, a 15 minute in-person survey
(no phonecalls, no Zoom) taken on 4,800 people between June 5th and 9th. It has a confidence
level of 95% and a margin of error of +/-3.4%. Here’s the main screenshot:
We also got a second survey published by one of the accredited pollsters, Communicaliza (16).
This comes with the advantage of novelty, the poll taken between June 16th and 18th, on the
other hand it was conducted one online-only on 3,656 people. Despite that, the company claims
a tighter margin of error of +/- 1.62%. The main question was similar to the above:
Notes:
Overall and even though it was taken in the first week of June, I put more credence in
the Data Encuesta poll. However, be clear that it’s still very early in this process and
we’re likely to see plenty of changes once the campaign starts officially, that date now
set for July 4th.
Seeing Luisa González (27.8% or 25.9%) in a comfortable early lead is no surprise. The
Rafael Correa party candidate (Citizen’s Revolution Party), she will benefit from high
exposure and a professional, well funded campaign as well as the Correa hardcore
support. She will almost certainly make the second round run-off, therefore supporters
are already focused on selling the narrative of her winning in round one. For that she
22
will need 40%+1 vote.
No surprise to see the green/ecology candidate Yaku Pérez (14.8% and 10.7%) in the
early running. He too has hardcore support from the enviro-friendly electorate and got
boosted when the Pachakutik Party decided to officially support his candidacy. Due to
his run in 2020 he has plenty of public recognition and was always going to pick up
early voter intention, his job will be to consolidate his position.
Right wing populist candidate Jan Topic gets 14.2% and third place in one poll, a mere
2.6% in another. At this time I’d err toward the larger number and that would mean he
has managed to attract the right wing vote to his candidacy. He is positioning as
“Ecuador’s Nayib Bukele”, El Salvador’s right wing populist President, and will play on
his hard man/successful businessman image. It’s one that can work in Ecuador, a
country that likes a “caudillo” (political strongman/quasi autocrat)-
Then in a bunch come Otto Sonnenholzner Fernando Villavicencio, Xavier Hervas and
arguably Daniel Noboa. These are either behind or scrapping for second spot.
Depending on the survey, but none of them are out of the race. Anything can happen
in the next two months and as the last election showed, when Xavier Hervas came from
nowhere in the last month of the campaign to finish 4th and very close to both 2nd and
3rd places, momentum and dynamics can change quickly. The number of undecided
voters also pay tribute to that and it’s a truism in Ecuador that many voters won’t make
up their minds until the very last week,
Bottom line: Luisa González is in good shape to make the second round and her chances of
winning in round one are far from zero, as her Citizen’s Revolution Party showed stronger than
all polls expected in the March regional/municipal elections. Yaku Pérez will have problems in
retaining second place and that may also play into Luisa González’s hands, as behind the
scenes Leonidas Iza of CONAIE would then be able to reach an agreement with her/Correa.
The fight will be fierce for second position and a place in a presumed ballotage. Jan Topic will
fancy his chances of offering Ecuador the alternative to the samo samo, but so will Villavicencio
and Hervas for the same reasons. There’s no way of ruling out Yaku Pérez from the argument,
meanwhile Sonnenholzner offers an alternative right wing orthodox candidate from the political
ranks, if Topic’s brand doesn’t find favour. All in all, this first reading didn’t offer many big
surprises and confirms the RC Party as favourites for the vote. Nobody’s idea of a lock,
however. To remind readers who ma/may not need reminding, an eventual win for the Rafael
Correa party would be good for deals between Ecuador and Chinese capitals, but we also
strongly suspect his RC party will form some sort of loose alliance with CONAIE in order to get
across the finishing line in a round two run-off. That would be all sorts of bad news for the
controversial projects with widespread local and community opposition in the country.
Mexico: The legal actions against AMLO’s Mining Law
When the new AMLO-sponsored mining law passed the last leg of its fast-track journey through
Congress, that weekend in IKN728 dated April 30th we mentioned the likelihood of legal actions
stacking up against it, with the potential of making the newly minted law inoperable. Then in
IKN732 we noted the first legal challenge against the law, which didn’t come from the mining
companies or industry but instead, from opposition members of Congress who objected to the
law’s fast track passage on Constitutional grounds. Then in IKN733 we got news of the first
legal action from our sector and a mining company, when First Majestic gained a temporary
injunction against the application of the law against its operations and at the time, we wrote
that its action would, “…set a precedent that every other mining company worth its salt will
follow.” We weren’t wrong.
This week comes another legal challenge, this time from Frontera Copper (owner Invecture
Group) and its Mexican subsidiary, the Cobre de Mayo copper mine (8) and this time, the
injunction is more comprehensive than the FR.to action. According to the preliminary judgment
published on Wednesday June 21st by the 16th District judge of Administrative Affairs, DF
Mexico, the provisional suspension granted to the benefit of the company is against the “totality
23
of the Mining Law” (17). This fashion will grow.
Heavy rainfall in Chile
Chile’s Central and Central South regions have this week been hit by the heaviest rainfall seen
in the past 30 years, with as of this Sunday morning six people confirmed dead, around 1,500
people are in refuge centres, 54 homes have been damaged and some 50,000 people are
without electricity supply. President Boric took the Chile’s airwaves on Saturday evening to
inform the country about the situation and declare a State of Emergency in affected regions,
mostly Valparaiso and Maule. Some photos and video of flooding and rivers turned to raging
torrents on this link (18).
There has also been some disruption to mines operating in the Central region, with Codelco’s
Andina (i.e. the Rio Blanco mine) under temporary closure and the El Teniente mine suspending
operations in its open pit mining zones, though underground ops continue as normal (19).
Peru: Previewing the next round of protests
Do not be deceived by the relative calmo in Peru these last couple of months, as the political
situation is still very fragile and we’re about to get the next round of organized national-level
protests with marches in Lima, potential for clashes with police and other such matters. The
date set for what’s being called “The Third Taking of Lima” is July 19th by the 30,000 or so
protesters set to descend on the capital from the provinces that day, The organizers are from
the autonomous civic organizations in provincial Peru, known as “Ronderos” and their umbrella
group, known as Cunarc), says the objective is to force the resignation of President Dina
Boluarte and her administration and get the early Presidential elections they were first offered
back in December. They plan to protest using a type of shift system to maintain a large
presence in the capital over an extended period of time and also organize marches in major
provincial towns and cities (20) are from the autonomous civic organizations in provincial Peru,
known as “Ronderos” and their umbrella group, known as Cunarc), says
Their main objective isn’t going against the weight of public opinion, Esther. An opinion poll run
by the Reputable firm IEP for the national daily La Republica this weekend (21) noted approval
for both the President and Congress is worse than ever, with Congress getting a 91%
disapproval and just 6% support, while support for President Dina Boluarte has dropped
another three points from the previous poll to just 12% this weekend. Also, 51% of those
questioned believe the current government is worse than that of the ousted Pedro Castillo (still
on remand in jail), with just 19% thinking the Boluarte admin is better than that of Castillo.
The final piece in this puzzle is the clear reluctance of Boluarte to step down. She stated this
month that early elections are now off the table and she intends to complete the current
mandate, set to run to 2026, there is also tacit collusion between her government and the
highly unpopular Congress, whose members have been brazening annulling corruption
investigations brought against many of their own recently, riling Peruvians even further. The
“scratch-my/your-back deal is obvious to one and all and adds fuel to the potential fire starting
next month. Another issue complicating Boluarte’s position is the increasing weight of evidence
showing her to be directly responsible for orders to use live ammunition against protesters back
in December and January, when upward of 60 people died during protests, marches and
attempts to take control of airports. For example, a sworn testimony given to investigators by
an ex-police officer involved in the protest repression came to light last week, in which the
officer (who resigned in protest the day after the conflict between protesters and the forces of
law and order that left 18 people dead at one of the airports) stated (22) that on being briefed
before deployment, they were “clearly told” the orders to use live rounds and shoot to kill
“came from the highest ranks of the police force and from the Presidency of the Republic.” And
it doesn’t matter whether you agree or not with the results of those orders, because they were
clearly illegal (and very much so) according to the law in Peru. Dina Boluarte enjoys immunity
from prosecution as long as she holds her current office and is under no illusions about her
likely fate if she resigned her office at the moment. Basically, the same as that of nearly every
other President in recent times in Peru, just for different reasons.
24
Bottom line: It’s been calm recently in Peru, but July is likely to change that and once the
“Third Taking of Lima” protests begin, a lot will depend on the way the government responds to
the marches. The country has managed to get back on its feet and the business of mining has
benefited from the Boluarte government to date, but that doesn’t change the fact that both her
admin and the current Congress are highly unpopular and ripe for attack by an aggrieved
populace, particularly in provincial areas. With a President unwilling to step down and a
Congress doing everything in its power to hold on to their cushy jobs, conflict is in the cards.
Peru: Teck’s Zafranal copper project gets an important agreement
But if we step away from its national political scene and focus on mining, news is again more
positive in Peru. In IKN730 dated May 14th we reported on the EIA award for the Teck owned
Zafranal copper project, in the Arequipa region of South Peru. The EIA got plenty of national
press at the time and the local management of the company made noises about it starting
construction next year, but at the time this desk was still unconvinced due to local issues.
Here’s a segment of IKN730:
The EIA is a big step forward (on a project your author once visited, back in the day
when it was run by AQM Copper) but the 2024 ground break date may turn out to be
optimistic as Zafranal isn’t popular with its neighbours and there are court cases
against its current 30 year use of land (usufruct) deal, brought by local municipality
concerns against the government of Arequipa.
Therefore, the news this week out of Peru is wholly positive, as on Thursday the Arequipa
regional government announced (23) that it had reached agreement on the disputed land and
all sides were now in agreement with the deal. This is the last major obstacle that the mine
project should face, as it means the majority of locals in the official community group
representing its interests (the Proyecto Especial Majes Siguas Autodema) which covers both
residents and the highly productive agricultural zone just a few km from the mine project, have
given their consent. This puts the project on track for development and the Teck timeline to
break ground at Zafranal now looks feasible. Or in the words of Peru Central Bank head Julio
Velarde, a.k.a. the adult in the Peru room, while giving a presentation to the investment
community early this month, “Zafranal is nearly ready and could start in September”, with his
timeline counting from the final permit approvals required for the construction green light. The
capex for the project is slated at U$1.473Bn, the construction phase could directly employ up to
3,000 people and in its projections, the Arequipa Regional Government calculates the project
could improve local GDOP by up to 4.8% annual.
Market Watching
New momentum for American Eagle (AE.v)
This copper exploreco is one we featured a couple of times earlier in the year and last week, its
share price woke up in no uncertain fashion. So before we get to that, a quick reminder of
previous soft coverage here in the ‘Market Watching’ section of The IKN Weekly and the first
mention of American Eagle (AE.v) was in the note “Thoughts on American Eagle (AE.v)”,
published as part of IKN715, dated January 29th 2023. Among other things, that day we noted
AE.v was a member of the “Ore Group” suite of companies and that I have indirect exposure to
the company as fellow Ore Group company OreCap (OCI.v) owns some 5.2m shares (worth
around $1.4m or OCI’v total market cap of around $8.6m this weekend). Please see the whole
note from that day if interested, but to sum up our position here’s part of the conclusion:
I’m still not convinced AE has a live prospect on its hands, but we should get a couple
of big clues in the near future. This drill plan (above) highlights the next two holes
scheduled for assay, NAK-22 005 and 006,
The follow-up to that came in IKN720 dated March 5th and the note, “American Eagle (AE.v): A
swing and a miss”. That title line probably gives away the news from holes 005, 006 and 007,
which were okay-ish but lacked length and grade. As a result, AE stock dumped back to under
10c and for us as a potential trade, went on the back burner (see that edition if you want the
whole thing) and while we were clear that a couple of underwhelming holes weren’t about to
25
kill the NAK project, our sentiment was summed up by the last line, “It’s going to be worth
keeping a watching brief on AE at NAK, but my high risk bets will go to other places for a
couple of quarters.” Indeed, that sentiment matched the market’s attitude toward AE.v and it
spent several weeks languishing at/around the 10c level.
This 12 month chart shows the way American Eagle (AE.v) first caught the market’s attention in
late 2022 with a promising first hole from its NAK project in Canada, then things went off the
boil somewhat as follow-up holes didn’t quite match the expectations raised from the first
intersect. Until this week, that is (below left):
To the right of the annual chart is last week’s spike, so if we close
in on the last five days (above right) we see that the 15c and 16c
of Monday and Tuesday quickly evaporated on Wednesday due
the NR that day (24). Discreetly entitled “Drilling Underway at
American Eagle's NAK Copper-Gold Project”, the NR also dropped
along with bunch of core photos published to the company
website from Hole 008, very recently drilled and now at the assay
lab. Here’s the link to those (25) and the page is well worth the
visit, because the visuals are what the fuss is largely about and
why AE.v closed up around 70% on the week. This screenshot
(right) of the thumbnails doesn’t do the page justice and all the
detail gets lost, but I’m going with the overview rather than any
single photo here because the main story is that AE found good
porphyry style mineralization all the way down the hole. This
alone explains why a hole slated to run 300m to 400m ended up
being over 800m long.
It’s important to note at this point that we do not yet have assays
for this hole. That means the price move last week was all on
speculation that AE has hit good grade and improved on the
results we saw at the back end of its last program. So what’s all
the fuss about? The annotated drill map below (and also on link
(26)) should help solve that.
Hole 008 was drilled very close to the original hole that started
the fun at NAK, hole 001 in late 2022. But this time the hole was
directed to the West of the known mineralization, a zone that AE
had not previously tested. This close-up of the same zone shows
the drill trace, so it’s significant they found plenty of good
porphyry style mineralization.
26
In effect, event though the hole was collared very close to 001, it’s a 400m step out to the
West and has enlarged the footprint significantly.
Here’s a second map of the same zone (right),
obtained from corporate literature. We see hole
008 in the bottom-left, the way it moves away
from the previous fence of drills in phase one
(holes 001, 002, 003, 004, 005 and 007 were
all along the same North line, with only hole
006 out of step to the East of the others). What
we also see is the location of the hole, 009,
stepping out a long way ton the East of the
others and designed to test the zone to the
South of the known porphyry stock (an area of
identified geology with negligible metal grades).
This hole is going in on the recommendation of
new strategic partner Teck (note below) and is
the only one in the program this year that
needs helicopter support. On inquiring about its
status this weekend, I was told that the pad
27
was complete and drilling began two days ago, on Friday, so the program is moving along
nicely. Here’s a photo taken from the support copter as the team put the finishing touches to
the drill platform, taken last week.
Summing up, we have three things to consider:
Pending assays from the recently drilled Hole 008
The upcoming drill 009, going into an interesting zone of NAK
The big price move in the stock last week
Before we get to the call, let’s wrap up the office work by noting that as at end 1q23 AE.v had
treasury of C$1.51m, which was topped off with another C$2.96m at the end of last month
when the strategic investment made by Teck (March 31st NR) gave the Major a 15% stake in AE
and a big say on the current drill program. We understand Teck recommended to keep the hole
008 drill turning once the teams saw what was coming up, also Teck is keen on testing the area
now under the drill at Hole 009.
Discussion. That was a big price move in AE.v last week but be clear, if they really have found
the guts of a big porphyry system via Hole 008 and grades are better than anything seen last
year, the current market cap of just under C$26m will be left for dust. The way that
mineralization continued for 400m to the West of the previous fence line means they have
something down there of size, however the visuals from Hole 008 remind your author a lot of
the rock that came from Hole 001. That came with plenty of good grading zones along the
core,, but the overall intersect was diluted down to 851m of 0.33% CuEq once the barren zones
were taken into consideration. So yes hole 008 looks good, but I’m not sure it deserves the
type of reception it got last week and if grades only match 001, there may be some
disappointed drill play gamblers moving back out.
That’s the price and Hole 008, not for the wild card and hole 009. With Teck requesting that
hole in that zone, it’s clear the big miner is looking to find out sooner rather than later what
they have to the East of the current holes and to the South of the porphyry stock. A major is
more willing to “drill to kill” a promising area and get a handle on any limits of the
mineralization, if they exist. In other words it looks like Hole 009 is a true exploration hole, a
large step-out and we have no real idea what they’ll find. If it’s a duster, AE still has a new and
growing zone around Hole 001 and to its West, so NAK won’t be dead. Ion the other hand, the
AE share price will take a hit if Hole 009 is a duster. That’s the potential bad news, the potential
good news is that if they hit something long and strong, AE at NAK would leap up the league
table of new Canadian discoveries very quickly and it wouldn’t surprise this desk to see it
trading at a $100m market cap once the market digests what it all might mean.
In other words, AE today is a gamble. Hole 008 has primed the share price and opened the risk
to downside if 1) the assay grades come in lower than the market seems to be supposing (from
those photo visuals) or 2) if Hole 009 disappoints. On the other hand, we may find the labs
returning assay results that fully justify its newly pimped market cap and if Hole 009 turns out
to be an inspired piece of geological decision making, AE.v will zoom in market cap very quickly.
28
The bottom line: Are you feeling lucky? Longer-term readers would have guessed already that
your cowardly, whussy author prefers to sit out the stock at this point in time and let others
assume the risk of buying AE at 20c or above, with the late Friday jump to a 27c close looking
like overbuying on all counts. That means if Hole 008 beats my more modest expectations of
“around hole 001 grade” over the long intersect, I’d have made the wrong decision. But the real
gamble at this point centres on Hole 009 as I know the team is keen on its potential but also
understands the true risk nature of drilling a hole at such a big step-out so early in a campaign.
With $4m or so in the bank, AE is funded to drill its planned 7,000m of this program and with
hole 008 visuals starting things in good fashion, AE is no longer a back burner stock and is
firmly on our radar in the weeks ahead. However, as at this weekend I feel no urge or need to
chase the stock price on photo evidence alone and much prefer to wait until we have the
assays back from the labs before making any proactive decision. After that, we’ll see what
happens with the make/break hole 009, one that’s bound to move the stock price one way or
the other on the day its assays are released. From what base price and in which direction are
unknown.
Conclusion
IKN736 is done, we end with bullet points:
It’s been a long year for Rio2 (RIO.v) and I’m trying hard not to get too excited about
its chances at the upcoming appeal, but its ducks do seem to be coming into line now.
What’s more, the recent price action tells us the market quietly agrees. I’ll take 40c as
a first stop on the way back to solvency in this position.
QC Copper (QCCU.v) may have disappointed with its news last week, but they’re not
trying to pull the wool over anyone’s eyes and as long as they deliver a quality MRE, all
will be forgiven. Another well overdue for a re-rate.
Wishing American Eagle the best of luck with its Hole 009.
Meanwhile, don’t rely on Russia to pimp the price of gold for you. Or anything else, for
that matter.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stock is Minera Alamos (MAI.v). Flash
updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best wishes, Mark
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r3U-1D_B1xQ
(2) https://twitter.com/Mark_IKN
(3) https://twitter.com/Mark_IKN/status/1671918753720721410
(4) https://marimaca.com/marimaca-announces-c20-million-strategic-investment-from-mitsubishi-corporation/
(5) https://www.rio2.com/post/rio2-limited-receives-us-5-million-from-chilean-iva-vat-refund
29
(6) https://www.infolobby.cl/
(7) https://qccopper.com/news/qc-copper-updates-on-opemiska-resource/
(8) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yVJ6_ON3Zqc
(9) https://newcoregold.com/news/newcore-gold-announces-5-million-private-placement-financing/
(10) https://www.rugbyresourcesltd.com/s/RUGNR2309.pdf
(11) https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/copper-on-track-for-first-weekly-fall-in-four-as-dollar-firms/
(12) https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/available-lme-copper-stocks-fall-to-the-lowest-since-2021/
(13) https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/newmont-declares-force-majeure-zinc-deliveries-mexicos-peasquito-
2023-06-23/
(14) https://ljz.mx/22/06/2023/la-lucha-minera-en-penasquito-y-sombrerete/
(15) https://twitter.com/Radio_AtalayaMi/status/1672067355894071297?t=54Hvm8fuGibVr3-_ScPDLw&s=03
(16) https://revistademanabi.com/2023/06/20/luisa-gonzalez-encabeza-intenciones-de-voto-para-presidente-del-
ecuador/
(17) https://latinus.us/2023/06/22/juez-federal-concede-empresa-cobre-suspension-provisional-contra-ley-minera/
(18) https://www.perfil.com/noticias/bloomberg/bc-fuertes-lluvias-chile-provocan-cierren-en-algunas-minas-de-
cobre.phtml
(19) https://www.mdzol.com/mundo/2023/6/24/fotos-videos-chile-vive-el-peor-temporal-de-lluvias-en-30-anos-crece-la-
preocupacion-348100.html
(20) https://larepublica.pe/politica/2023/06/21/tercera-toma-de-lima-mas-de-30000-ronderos-participaran-en-la-marcha-
contra-dina-boluarte-toma-de-lima-2023-pedro-castillo-protestas-noticias-peru-lrnd-1546188
(21) https://larepublica.pe/politica/actualidad/2023/06/25/iep-el-91-de-los-peruanos-desaprueba-al-congreso-dina-
boluarte-poder-ejecutivo-2276450
(22) https://larepublica.pe/politica/actualidad/2023/06/22/dina-boluarte-policia-dijo-a-fiscalia-que-recibio-ordenes-de-
matar-en-protestas-en-puno-por-autorizacion-de-presidencia-pnp-fiscalia-de-la-nacion-ministerio-publico-noticia-892760
(23) https://andina.pe/agencia/noticia-banco-central-proyecto-minero-zafranal-podria-iniciar-septiembre-proximo-
942440.aspx
(24) https://americaneaglegold.ca/news/american-eagle-confirms-continuity-of-copper-gold-mineralization-at-nak-with-
multiple-significant-intercepts-at-depth-and-near-1/
(25) https://americaneaglegold.ca/projects/2023-nak-core-gallery-page/
(26) https://americaneaglegold.ca/site/assets/files/3763/2023_drill_plan.png
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2022
Closed in 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
Goldshore Res GSHR.v Nov'22 C$0.18 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 88.9% Quick profit taken
Palamina Corp PA.v Dec'22 C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.08 -72.9% Clear-out of underperformer
Pure Gold PGM.h Dec'22 C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.015 -89.3% tiny trade on vh risk, went Ch11
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Set-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
31
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
32
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
33