IKN #735Premium

The IKN Weekly
Week 735, June 18th 2023
Contents
This Week: In Today’s Edition, Juneteenth and chill.
Fundamental Analysis: Surge Copper (SURG.v): A case study in cheap copper.
Stocks to Follow: AbraSilver (ABRA.v), Latin Metals (LMS.v), Western Exploration (WEX.v),
Equinox Gold (EQX), Amerigo Resources (ARG.to), Faraday Copper (FDY.to), Contango ORE
(CTGO), Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v), SolGold (SOLG.to) (SOLG.l), QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v).
Copper Basket: Overview, Western Copper & Gold (WRN.to), Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.to),
Atacama Copper (ACOP.v), Libero Copper (LBC.v).
Producer Basket: Overview, Wesdome (WDOFF) (WDO.to), Barrick (GOLD), Newmont (NEM).
TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Nine Mile (NINE.cse), Palamina (PA.v).
Regional Politics: Ecuador: The Presidential race starts and this time we mean it, Chile: A
CESCO report on mine project delays, Mexico: AMLO’s final year and an early look at the 2024
election: An early look.
Market Watching: Vox Royalty (VOXR.to) (VOXR) raises expensive capital
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
In Today’s Edition
 AbraSilver (ABRA.v) got whacked hard by ETF rebalance selling last week, but its recent
history strongly suggests that it will rebound quickly and as such, it’s your near-term
fliptrade idea of the week. From the same section, please note the latest news from
SolGold (SOLG.to) as China’s
 Today’s main fundies section takes a look at Surge Copper (SURG.v), which announced
the results of its PEA for the Berg project last week and to the apparent surprise of its
management team, got hit hard and saw its low stock price get even lower. As a result,
SURG is a good case study on the current state of the market and what to look for
when considering a junior exploreco trade in today’s difficult market.
 With the runners and riders now known (pending appeal), we list the eight candidates
for President of Ecuador, with a thumbnail on each to give the need-to-know for those
of us on the outside looking in. I’m not bullish on Ecuador miners in general even at the
best of times, these are far from the best of times and it’s difficult to see a positive
outcome for the mining sector in this election process.
 In the copper basket, the signal coming from world inventories is simple: Watch out,
copper bears.
Juneteenth and chill
Firstly, a reminder that due to the Juneteenth National Independence Day in The USA, the US
markets are closed tomorrow Monday. Canada is open for business as normal, though. As for
the rest of the week, the unofficial start of the Northern hemisphere summer is with us. Those
who sell in May and go away have done just that, we have Canada’s Victoria Day in the rear
view mirror, US Independence Day in the near future, the U.S. Open golf championship has a
new winner, England playing Australia for the Ashes. Et cetera. And though the Dog Days of
1

2023 aren’t with us just yet (that’s July 3rd), there’s already an air of a market settling in for
the summer. This week reflects that with a distinct lack of macro dates for the diary too, with
the main event probably Jerome Powell’s testimony at the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report
to Congress, that happens on Wednesday and Thursday and is always good for a few headlines
(as well as guffaws from the peanut gallery of social media), though it doesn’t tend to move the
markets much as most of the things he says are either already in the public realm or assumed
and baked into the market.
The broad markets are even managing to ignore this
(right). The CPI and PPI figures pleased the market
last week, the Fed’s “hawkish pause” is now in the
books and you don’t have to travel far in the financial
media to find a talking head telling you The USA has
already bottomed, or that the recovery has already
started, or some such else. Also true in on the other
side of the Atlantic, where The UK has given us its
Mission Accomplished speech and says it’s now out of
recession. Very nice. This desk, of course, begs to
differ when the yield curve remains steeply inverted
and at levels last seen in the Volcker years and we
remind readers, if it were necessary, that “inverted
yield curve” is the undefeated champion of recession forecast datasets, having preceded the
recessive period under Volcker, then 1990/1991, 2001, the 2008 GFC and even managed to dip
just into the negative in late 2019, just before the Covid crisis brought its sharp and brief
recession period in 2020. And to repeat, all those recessions had the inverted yield curve before
them and today’s market is the deepest inversion since 1981.
It doesn’t take much hunting to find evidence of money hunkering down and leaving the active
economy either, as once the macro experts calling the recession fears over have left the TV set
and the advert blocks are done, your bizmedia channel of choice rolls out another to explain
how “bonds are very attractive” at the moment and that they are advising their clients to take
advantage of the yields on offer. But with the summer months now (just about) with us,
concerns about recession seem to have been booted into the future and the gold market is
playing from the same song sheet, as the flatline we first identified back in NMarch (“revolve
around $2k”) continues unabated and the appetite for safe haven ownership in the financial
circles remains at all-time sentiment lows, compared to the ticket price in USD.
GLD gold holdings, 2022 to date (metric tonnes)
1120
1100
1080
1060
1040
1020
1000
980
960
940
920
900
880
860
So with the doldrums of the Northern summer apparently with us, the discerning junior mining
investor should consider doing a couple of things:
 Unsubscribe from your junior mining newsletter, you may be wasting your money for a couple
of months.
 Take a step back and consider positioning the portfolio for what you expect once things start
picking up again.
2
12/21/13 22/1/41 22/1/82 22/2/11 22/2/52 22/3/11 22/3/52 22/4/8 22/4/22 22/5/6 22/5/02 22/6/3 22/6/71 22/7/1 22/7/51 22/7/92 22/8/21 22/8/62 22/9/9 22/9/32 22/01/7 22/01/12 22/11/4 22/11/81 22/21/2 22/21/61 22/21/03 32/1/31 32/1/72 32/2/01 32/2/42 32/3/01 32/3/42 32/4/7 32/4/12 32/5/5 32/5/91 32/6/2 32/6/61
mt 6.80 GLD: Inventory/Price Ratio, 2022 to date
6.60
source: SPDR GLD data
6.40
6.20
6.00
5.80
5.60
5.40
5.20
5.00
4.80
12/21/13 22/1/41 22/1/82 22/2/11 22/2/52 22/3/11 22/3/52 22/4/8 22/4/22 22/5/6 22/5/02 22/6/3 22/6/71 22/7/1 22/7/51 22/7/92 22/8/21 22/8/62 22/9/9 22/9/32 22/01/7 22/01/12 22/11/4 22/11/81 22/21/2 22/21/61 22/21/03 32/1/31 32/1/72 32/2/01 32/2/42 32/3/01 32/3/42 32/4/7 32/4/12 32/5/5 32/5/91 32/6/2 32/6/61
Source: SPDR data, IKN calcs

The former will be bad for my business, but understandable. As for the latter, we’ve already
considered a few new trades in recent weeks such as Equinox, Latin Metals and Marimaca, I’ve
even bit the bullet and bought some EQX as well. Today that process continues, as we consider
the news out of Surge Copper (SURG.v) last week and lay out why I’m going to keep a closer
eye on the stock as the rest of 2023 rolls out.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Surge Copper (SURG.v): A case study in cheap copper
Today’s main fundies note is not an in-depth study of Surge Copper (SURG.v), a junior
exploreco with its main flagship assets in BC Canada. Instead, it’s an analysis that focuses on
three specific aspects of the company:
 The news from the company last week
 Thoughts on the way the market reacted to the news
 The potential SURG now offers as a trade or investment vehicle
The three are related, of course, because on Wednesday June 13th, SURG published this NR (1)
with this header and subhead:
Surge Copper Announces Maiden Berg PEA:
C$2.1 billion NPV8% and 20% IRR
Large-scale, long-life, stand-alone greenfield development project
with simple design and high outputs of critical minerals located in a
safe jurisdiction with world-class infrastructure
That NR also came with an updated corporate presentation on the company website, so to get
the links out of the way early that’s on (2), below. So far so good and those headline numbers
seem reasonable at first light. Though not on my close watch list, SURG is a copper junior
exploreco and therefore known to this desk and as the headline was positive enough, I took the
time on Wednesday morning to open the NR and consider its contents carefully. However, while
I was doing so this happened:
The ten-day chart of SURG shows how the news on Wednesday was used as a liquidity event
and saw holders hit the bid and move out of the stock, seemingly willing to take any price. By
the time the week had finished the stock was at 11c and as these two charts with YTD (below
left) and longer-term (below right) price action show, last week comes at the end of a long
period in which SURG has only seen share price downside.
3

.
Not a nice way for a company’s hard work to be received by the market. However, given the
present state of the market I wasn’t particularly surprised and on reviewing the 20 page PEA
news release. To set the scene we now copypaste some limited extracts, visuals and tables
from the PEA NR but there’s a mountain of information in the document and here you get a
mere sample, so please read the whole thing at your own leisure. To begin, let’s locate Berg:
The inset map shows it in the Northern end of British Columbia, Canada, the main map shows
how the 70% owned Berg project (30% Thompson Creek, with the optioning in deal almost
certain to be fulfilled early by SURG, after which all development costs are pro rata) is located
on the large concession areas held by SURG in the zone and northwest of its other main asset,
the Ootsa project zone where the Ox and Seel deposits (also with thei own 43-101 resources
defined) are located, along with many other exploration and drill targets already identified by
the company. Importantly, you will note that semi-sandwiched between the Berg and Ootsa
zones is the Huckleberry concession area and mine, this wholly owned by Imperial Metals
(III.to) with the main Huckleberry mine having been shuttered and under care and
maintenance since 2016.
Now for an outline on the Berg PEA as published by SURG last week and we’re going to cover
the absolute basics here, details are in the NR. Here’s how the company presents the plan:
The PEA outlines a large, open-pit mining operation which, over the course of 31
years, would extract a mineable inventory to provide a mill feed of approximately 978
million tonnes with an average grade of 0.22% copper, 0.02% molybdenum, 4.5 g/t
silver, and 0.02 g/t gold.
In other words Berg is a large, low grade, open pit copper project and this production (and
costs) graphic helps show its 31 years of life:
4

The early years benefit from higher grades and help quick capital payback on capex, thanks to
higher grading supergene mineralization that lies near surface in the system (not often you get
that in BC, most deposits have their higher grading supergene eroded away by the eons) and at
0.29% Cu M+I average, grades higher than the overall average of 0.23% Cu. Once the
supergene is gone, the mine plan settles into a rhythm of around 200m lbs CuEq per annum in
its mature years and a cash cost that fluctuates ajust under the U$2.00/lb level. Therefore,
even at the low average grades compared to copper deposits in other parts of the world, Berg
would theoretically work at the envisaghed U$4.00/lb copper base price. This visual gives more
on the project economics:
Using a price assumptions for the main payable copper (64% of revenues over life of mine) of
U$4.00/lb, as well as U$15/lb for moly, U$23/oz silver U$1,800/oz gold and importantly, a forex
of CAD1/USD0.77 (as all figures are in CAD unless stated), the Berg PEA returns an NPV of
C$2.084Bn at an 8% discount rate and an IRR of 20%.
That’s not bad, but it’s not mega-sparkling either and the other weak point is the Capex, as due
to geography and the limited benefits of connecting the mine to existing infrastructure, Berg
would be a standalone project, It looks logical enough at first sight to combine Berg and
Huckleberry (and even Ootsa) and enjoy the resulting economies of scale, but the 43-101
compilers found that the trade-offs don’t work. Just for one issue, the Huckleberry mill would
need serious upgrades to handle the Berg tonnages per day, for another the larger project
would need even if a viable method of transporting the ore over a long distance and over
difficult topography could be worked out. The result is a capex estimate of C$1.968Bn (at least
it’s not USD) and there’s a breakdown of that total in another table in the NR (not shown here)
that includes 20% contingency and nearly $400m of pre-strip, among other items. That near-
$2Bn ticket price is a long way from the market cap of its owner, which this weekend stands at
C$21.6m. That’s just 1.1% of the money SURG would need to build its mine and tells us clearly
that the current owner doesn’t stand a chance of building itself: this is a project that must be
sold to a larger miner in order to happen.
Therefore it’s not a cheap mine to build and any eventual owner needs to bear that in mind at
the moment it makes its M&A offer for SURG. The other issue that caught the attention of the
5

casual observer (e.g. me on the first read) was the U$4.00/lb base case copper price, which
seems steep. In fact and on consideration of the details, the NPV and IRR figures (we just use
the IRR tables here) hold up okay under lower copper prices:
That’s a function of the high capex cost of the mine, as a lot of the overall must be embedded
early. However and on perusing the data, the op-ex sensitivity is another issue we need to
consider as we’re in a world of seemingly constant cost under-estimations and if we assume a
PEA opex to be optimized, it wouldn’t take much to see overall IRR eroded away.
To cut a long story short, SURG at Berg is a high capex, high tonnage throughput low grade
copper mine project that will need a deep-pocketed buyer to move it forward. It’s current
owner is obviously too small to to the funding and building, it’s therefore all about developing
the project and finding a buyer. That’s what SURG plans to do and now, with the Pea under its
belt, the company is looking to go back in with the drills and spend some more millions in order
to get it to PFS status, at which point they’ll look to sell to the highest bidder.
That’s not an original corporate strategy, in fact it’s box standard for this type of junior and
that’s the baseline reason we saw all the selling last week. The market knows that it’s tough for
small juniors to raise exploration capital at the moment and the upshot is to batter down share
prices and make the company pay more, via extra dilution to its share count. SURG is hardly
alone in facing these current adverse market conditions and what’s more, selling itself as a
“leveraged to copper” play means it has to get in a large group of fellow juniors. This is what
makes SURG an interesting case study at this time.
This begs the question as to what the company will need to do to move the project forward and
for that, we check out the basics of its financials via its balance sheet charts. First up the assets
and liabilities trackers and first, please note that due to the company’s financial year ending on
March 31st, 4q22 is still not reported and is estimate only.
SURG.v: Assets
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
We’ve also added out best guesses for the other quarters of this calendar year, to end
6
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 tse22q4 tse32q1 tse32q2 tse32q3
$m exp costs SURG.v: Liabilities per qtr
other current 8
cash
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
source: company filings
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 tse22q4 tse32q1 tse32q2 tse32q3
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
LT liabs
current liabs

December 2023. Next please note SURG adds exploration costs to its fixed asset pile, this is a
good thing and will help us put a reasonable valuation on the stock later. Liabilities are
effectively tiny, as the main $4m lump is tax liability that effectively stays there until sale or
production and means nothing for the day-to-day at SURG.
More interesting are the liquid assets of the company and our best guesses for the year, as
seen below. The cash and working capital charts are very similar, but as I did them both I may
as well show them both. We see that as at December 31st 2022 (3q22) SURG was down to
fumes, then its raising of $3.9m in gross proceeds via placement came into the company and
with one month left of the 1q23 period, the company disclosed its treasury position of C$2.6m
in the recent corporate presentation.
We also know that SURG plans to spend more than that at Berg and its other projects, as this
chart lays out and estimates:
SURG.v: Expenditures on mineral prop acq, per qtr
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
7
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 tse22q4 tse32q1 tse32q2
SURG.v: Cash treasury per qtr
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
C$m
Berg other
Berg drilling
Ootsa other
Ootsa drilling
source: company filings. IKN ests
It’s easy to spot the seasonality of spending at SURG, as we’re in the Norrthern end of BC and
the drilling season is typically limited to the summer months. In the last two seasons, SURG has
spent most of its drilling money on Ootsa and the expenditures on Berg have been on other
field activities (geophys, geology, camp, etc). As our forecasts show, we expect that emphasis
to change and Berg gets the major spending this year, but with around C$8m expected in
expenditures in the current and next quarter and over 45m of that in 2q23, the current treasury
at SURG isn’t going to cover its plans. Which means we assume an other equity placement
coming soon:
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 tse22q4 tse32q1 tse32q2 tse32q3
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
20 SURG.v: Working Capital per qtr
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 tse22q4 tse32q1 tse32q2 tse32q3
source company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
260 SURG.v: Shares Out
240
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 tse22q4 tse32q1 tse32q2 tse32q3
source: company filings
serahs
fo
snoillim

This chart is official up to December 31st 2022, then we can assume the 196.4m shares out as
disclosed by SURG in its most recent literature is also accurate, this total including the January
2023 placement. We’re therefore guesstimating that SURG goes back to market and sells
another 30m to 35m shares, bringing the total number of shares out to around 230m by the
end of the year. And, of course, the market knows that too. We’re now at the crux of the issue
and the reason why SURG dropped the way it did last week. In a world where juniors are
reliant on a hard-nosed and fussy market for working capital, any sign of financial weakness is
pounced upon and shares are hammered down until the exploreco capitulates and raises at
highly dilutive levels. Like it or not, it’s the way is it at the moment. That says “at the moment.”
We repeat, at the moment.
Now we’re at the base reason why SURG sold off last week, we also get to the reason why I
think this is an interesting case study and even a potential trade. At first I brushed off the PEA
and shrugged my shoulders at the price drop we saw last week, putting it down “another weak
junior” and saying things to myself such as “Well, what did they expect in today’s market?”, but
after a while I returned to the company and its story and saw there was more substance to this
story than first meets the eye. A list of things:
 Yes it’s low grade and dependent on by-product credits for its economics, but that’s not a
unique situation for BC mines and low grade deposits are workable there (poster child,
Copper Mountain).
 Yes its baseline economics demand U$4.00/lb copper, but frankly I think that will be a price
low in the years ahead. As such, the “leverage to copper” story isn’t as hackneyed as it
sounds and my initial disdain undeserved.
 It’s in Canada, it’s in BC, what’s more it’s in the “right part” of BC with mine development
and infrastructure already there and a community (including the First Nations) that knows
and understands the sector. That doesn’t give an automatic green light to permits, of
course, but in the event that the project advances, its privileged location will look good
against the Ecuadors and Colombias of our political world.
 There’s a real PEA been raised on this deposit. The capex is heavy and it’s obvious that
SURG alone doesn’t have the financial chops or leverage to move its 70% to production
alone, but in a future world crying out for copper that C$2bn capex won’t look bad against a
31 year mine life and reasonable cost parameters, especially if copper prices do what many
of us expect them to do in the second half of this decade.
 Its current low market cap provides the potential reward that we need for the risk involved
with taking on an unfashionable junior. At 196.4m shares out and C$0.11 this is a C$21.6m
market capper, a rounding error for any eventual developer of the mine. That market cap
could improve fivefold and it wouldn’t put off any big miner looking to put Berg into
production.
 I like the way SURG is being run. As a result of my piqued interest, I got in contact with
SURG CEO Leif Nilsson this week. We haven’t spoken face to face (or Zoom etc) yet but the
mail exchange is one of the better ones I’ve had in recent times with a junior C-suite
member and I appreciate the way he’s going about his job.
 There’s real asset value in this company. Due to the way exploration expenses are
capitalized, we have a clear valuation of SURG
the company and even if we get another
SURG.v: BV/share
dilutive placement this year to fund activities
and the shares out total moves to 230m, the
book value per share still stays at C$0.22, i.e. a
double from today’s share price:
On this, There’s a clear difference between a
dysfunctional producer with debt on board and
8
42.0 72.0 72.0 72.0 52.0 52.0 52.0 52.0 42.0 42.0 22.0 22.0
0.30
0.25
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 tse22q4 tse32q1 tse32q2 tse32q3
C$
source: company filings, IKN calcs and ests

failing, marginally profitable operations (e.g. Argonaut) and a junior with light debt and a
dedication to moving forward a project. The producer can stay below its 1X BV almost
indefinitely (or until it impairs assets), whereas SURG will demand at least its price of
discovery and development on an asset to any potential buyer and there’s no reason at all to
write down its development costs.
There are also clear catalysts at SURG that can bring about a change in fortune. Aside the
obvious one of better copper prices that would see all boats rise on the tide, there is new
interest in the BC mining zone among major miners (the Golden Triangle acquisitions) and
being in the right place at the right time could see SURG move before other explorecos with
similar style deposits in other places around the world. There’s also the neighbour factor, which
brings us to the role played by Imperial Metals (III.to) in this story. Owner of the Huckleberry
mine nearby, the asset has been on Care And Maintenance since 2016, when it was shuttered
due to the low copper prices at the time. With copper on the way back and threatening to make
U$4.00/lb a baseline rather than a target, as well as the continued favourable CAD/USD
exchange rate that should, in theory at least, keep costs under control USD terms, there’s
reason to believe III may revisit its asset and move it back into production. That’s backed up by
evidence too, as III is still interested enough to share the costs of the airborne ZTEM
geophysical survey run by SURG back in 2021 when it first got control of Berg and include its
concessions in the survey that covered Berg and Ootsa.
Also, this (3) report from this time last year (published May 18, 2022) entitled “Imperial Metals
places re-opening of Huckleberry mine on its ‘to do’ list” and comes with the subheader, “But
first wants to restart operations at Mt. Polley in the Cariboo.” That’s enough to get the gist of
the report, so just one excerpt from the body of the report that quotes III Bruce Kynoch as he
explained that the plan was to get its troubled Mount Polley mine back into production before
turned corporate focus back onto Huckleberry:
“It’s one at a time,” said Kynoch last week. “We want to get one mine up and running
before we look at the other. It depends a bit on how that start up goes.”
That was last year and as these charts show, III has been as good as its word and Mount Polley
is now ramping up. There are other charts we could include, such as the gold production (a big
part of the revenues mix) or even improved recovery rates in recent quarters (81% Cu in the
most recent reported quarter), but those two are enough for our purposes and we’ll note before
moving on that III expects Mount Polley throughput to keep on improving as 2023 rolls out.
mt III: Mount Polley ore milled, per qtr III: Mount Polley copper production, per qtr
mlbs Cu
1.6 8
1.4 7
1.2
6
1 5
0.8 4
0.6
3
0.4 2
0.2 1
0 0
1q22 2q22 3q22 4q22 1q23 1q22 2q22 3q22 4q22 1q23
source: III source: III
In other words, we may have a stealth catalyst for SURG on the horizon. If III keeps to the plan
as explained last year and with copper prices maintaining their elevated levels, it would come as
no surprise to hear from III that they are moving to bring Huckleberry out of C&M. On the day
that announcement comes, SURG would probably…well, it would surge. Honestly, I did well to
avoid using that pun until now.
Discussion and conclusion
Surge Copper (SURG.v) is mostly a case study, one of many junior explorecos that’s stuck in
the vicious circle of dilutive financings and a market that demands lower and lower ticket prices
for new capital. We’ve seen this in the copper space and for juniors exploring for other metals,
you only need to look at what’s happened to my holding in Newcoe Gold (NCAU.v) for another
9

prime example. However, there’s more to this stock than first meets the eye and even with a
PEA that seemingly demands “leverage to copper” as its main selling point, at this beaten down
price there’s good reason to watch it more carefully in the weeks and months to come. The
project is valid, I like the way the team operates, they have a clear vision of the future and
while they’re clear about the difficulties of this market, they are going to do their best to deliver
as much project for as little dilution as possible as well.
Ultimately, the main reason to follow SURG going forward is the copper price. If it does what I
and many others think it will do, projects such as SURG at Berg will look far more attractive and
consequently, its equity will reflect the interest. Combine that with what looks like a true
bargain basement price and the potential for its neighbour to surprise the market with a
regional catalyst that would put this corner of BC firmly back on the map and you’re left with a
strong candidate for speculative trades in the copper sub-sector. We can expect them to run a
placement at some point this year but even then, that might come as a market-pleasing
strategic from a larger company rather than plain vanilla placement and surprise us to the
upside. But above all, at some point the market worm will eventually turn and the buyer’s
market for junior paper becomes a sellers, if only briefly. At the present it’s a hard and difficult
palce to raise working capital but juniors don’t stay like that forever and if copper sets off on a
real rally, it could add multiples to this weekend’s 11c price no matter how many shares SURG
sells in the meantime. So from a case study of a beaten down tinycap, SURG will as from next
weekend join our Stock to Follow list in the Watch List section, sat next to Rugby Mining
(RUG.v) as another high risk tinycap alternative to the copper sector trades we currently
feature. It won’t carry any of my personal cash for the moment, but that can change.
Stocks to Follow
Last week, six of the 19 stocks currently on our Stocks to Follow list returned gains (ARG.to,
SOLG.to, FDY.to, WEX.v, MARI.to, LMS.v) and six others were unchanged (QCCU.v, NCAU.v,
OCI.v, MIRL.cse, RUG.v, MENE.v), leaving seven in the red column (MAI.v, EQX, ABRA.v,
NCAU.v, RIO.v, GSHR.v, CTGO). As is often the case when there are plenty of UNCH in the list,
most of the moves were small and there were only two double figures percentage movers, with
big upper SolGold (SOLG.to up 10.3) and big downer AbraSilver (ABRA.v down 16.7%).
We have 19 open positions, 14 of those owned personally and that’s one below the self-
imposed maximum number of covered stocks. Nine stocks are in the green, ten are in the red.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.33 59.5% $0.75 first tgt, #1 idea
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Amerigo Res ARG.to STR BUY C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.53 9.6% Main Cu trade, top fundies
SolGold SOLG.to STR BUY C$0.265 19-Feb-23 C$0.32 9.4% Cu in Ecuador, M&A tgt
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v SPEC BUY C$0.265 25-Abr-21 C$0.165 -37.7% MRE due this month
Equinox Gold EQX BUY U$4.46 30-May-23 U$4.64 7.2% Au leverage trade
Faraday Copper FDY.to may sell C$0.79 26-Mar-23 C$0.80 1.3% Latest Cu exploreco, IKN723
AbraSilver Res. ABRA.v BUY C$0.36 4-Dic-22 C$0.25 -30.6% added for last time Mar'23
Western Explor. WEX.v BUY C$1.87 9-Abr-23 C$1.47 -21.4% Au spec in NV USA
Newcore Gold NCAU.v SPEC BUY C$0.205 23-Oct-22 C$0.15 -26.8% now financing. Bottom?
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v SPEC BUY C$0.83 22-Abr-18 C$0.185 -77.7% Cheap on permit probs, appeal
SPECULATIVE TRADES
Orecap inv OCI.v SPEC BUY C$0.04 20-Nov-22 C$0.035 -12.5% corp revamp, new strategy
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v Hold C$0.72 16-May-21 C$0.88 22.2% now in drill assay season
Minera IRL MIRL.cse avoid C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.025 -87.2% run into ground byCEO, AVOID
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
10

Marimaca Copper MARI.to WATCH C$3.65 26-May-23 C$4.11 12.6% Likely purchase soon
Latin Metals LMS.v WATCH C$0.15 11-Set-22 C$0.155 3.3% new to Watch List
Rugby Resources RUG.v WATCH C$0.06 26-Mar-23 C$0.055 -8.3% new on watchlist, Cu in Col
Goldshore Res GSHR.v WATCH C$0.165 26-Mar-23 C$0.185 12.1% return to list, possible flip
Contango Ore CTGO WATCH U$23.25 2-Dic-22 U$31.46 35.3% Manh Choh finance now closed
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.63 6-Dic-20 C$0.30 -52.4% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2023 date closed close price
Altiplano Metals APN.v jan'23 C$0.31 17-Set-21 C$0.17 -45.2% delayed and will dilute soon
Western Copper WRN.to mar'23 C$2.02 13-Nov-22 C$2.32 14.9% sold on reduced M&A prob.
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v may'23 C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$1.75 -43.0% Closing on legal action news
Amerigo Res ARG.to may'23 C$1.36 12-Dic-21 C$1.48 8.8% sold 20% to raise cash
2015 to 2022 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on some of the covered companies:
AbraSilver (ABRA.v): PROBABLY BUYING FOR A VERY NEAR-TERM FLIP. Please
forgive a little self-indulgent first person, but every time I remind myself there’s a good reason
why I only own one dedicated silver play, I immediately ask myself why I still own one silver
play. There seem to be a dozen special ways in which Ag explorecos can blow holes in your
portfolio and for the second quarter end in a row,
ABRA.v was hit hard by the index rebalancers and in
particular selling from the ETFMG Prime Junior Silver
Miners ETF, known by its ticker SILJ. That ETF has
continued to cause pain and suffering to a number
of silver stocks as it sells larger chunks into thin bids
as it rebalances (apparently pivoting to stocks such
as Pan American Silver, which begs the question of
why the “J” even exists in its ticker) and ABRA was
one of them. Here’s a YTD chart (right) and it’s no
coincidence that ABRA last bottomed out exactly
three months ago, it was the same reason as SILJ
dumped stock and the market allowed it to hit the
bids all the way down. Therefore and after watching
the carnage in ABRA last week which very much includes the outsized volumes on Friday, look
no further for a live fliptrade candidate this week.
Now for sure there are other silver juniors that got hit by last week’s shenanigans, examples
include Dolly Varden (DV.v) Andean Precious Metals (APM.v), Bear Creek (BCM.v) etc. There
are even stocks that aren’t necessarily silver sector bought, owned and are now being dumped
into thin bids by SILJ such as Mako Mining (MKO.v) and its sister company Sailfish (FISH.v).
You may want to consider any or all of the small caps that were hacked hard by the overselling
last week, but I’ll stick with ABRA.v because not only is it oversold, but it has a great project
and is leagues ahead in quality to some of the names mentioned.
I may well join others in buying a few ABRA tomorrow and selling them back into the rising
price quickly. So quickly in fact that I’ll be able to report an unchanged holding this time next
weekend. I’m not one of nature’s natural daytraders or near-term flippers, but this set-up look
too obvious to be ignored. If I run my little flip, it will not affect the core long-term holding I
have at present.
Latin Metals (LMS.v): ADDED TO WATCH LIST. As noted in IKN734, ATAC (ATC.v) has
been withdrawn from the Watch List as it’s not worth following it any longer and been replaced
by Latin Metals (LMS.v), the very interesting prospect generator we looked into in the main
fundies section last weekend.
11

We even had news last week, when on Tuesday LMS announced (4) initial rock chip sample
results reported from its Tillo project in Peru, one of the four most interesting projects it’s
developing in Peru at the moment. The sampling tallied well with previous soil samples and
there’s an obvious drill target now generated on
the property, which is the whole idea behind
running grassroots prospecting and exploration
then finding partners to do the drilling. The type
of news from Tillo last week will never move the
market much and LMS remained quiet all week,
albeit inside its recent wide trading range. The NR
with more potential to move the share price will
be when LMS announces a new JV for Lachsha, its
first inside Peru.
Those of you interested in beating me to the
punch and opening a position here should exercise
plenty of patience, as while volumes tend to be
small there’s no need to pay the ask, either. Bid prudently and wait for a taker.
Western Exploration (WEX.v): A veritable curate’s egg. The funding NR on May 6th
announced a placement of $5.65m at $1.55 per unit (share + ½ warrant at $2.15), with the
close expected June 1st. Instead we got this (5) on June 14th::
“…has closed its previously announced "best efforts" private placement offering of an
aggregate 2,937,332 units (the "Units") at a price of $1.55 per Unit for aggregate gross
proceeds of $4,552,864.60 (the "Offering").
So, two weeks late and clearly, the company decided to close the book and bank its
commitments rather than hang around waiting any longer with the share price trading under
$1.50. WEX may well have suffered unlucky timing (May got bad for junior stocks, as we all
know in hindsight) or it may have come up short on its marketing (I saw precious little promo
from the company or social media buzz), but it is what it is and certainly not all bad; $5m is
more than enough to execute on its development plans at the Aura project, NV USA, this year.
That should include some drills into the very promising deeper high grade and it wouldn’t take
much to start the momentum rolling. A good team, an excellent project, now funded and ready
to develop.
Equinox Gold (EQX): It’s always more luck than judgment, but I felt particularly happy to
have bought into this new EQX position at U$4.46 and what turned out to be the near-term low
in the stock at the end of May and honestly thought it wouldn’t return to those prices again as
long as gold held above U$1,900/oz. So the action on Thursday when EQX touched U$4.50 was
too low for comfort, especially while
remembering that I’d sold a slice of the
excellent and strong-performing Amerigo
(ARG.to) to fund this purchase.
Note to self: You are not cute, Mark. You are
nobody’s idea of cute. Stop trying to be cute.
It’s hardly the first time I’ve fallen for the cute
trap, but then again I may be reading a little
too much into this week’s action and the index
rebalances, as well as options expiry day on
Friday, may have caused a temporary dip. So
on the subject of playing it too cute and selling
good trades…
12

Amerigo Resources (ARG.to): The $1.53 close on the week, now 5c above my recent selling
price of around 20% of the previous overweight holdings, doesn’t even do the stock justice as
ARG was sailing toward the C$1.60 line before Friday afternoon position liquidations took a
couple of percentage points of gain from the stock and made an excellent week look merely
good. But near-term viewpoints aren’t so important and
you have to be pleased about the solid action in ARG as
well as its “no news = good news operations in Chile.
This week sees the stock go ex-Div again, C$0.03
Canadian per share about to land in my account. Yours
too, I hope.
Faraday Copper (FDY.to): Not the first time we’ve
seen FDY get its tape painted on a Friday afternoon, so
not reading too much into the 80c close for the weekend
and as long as copper doesn’t shoot higher first thing,
those of you wishing to position in this stock will probably
be able to get something with a 7-handle next week.
Contango ORE (CTGO): If you weren’t on the call, check out the latest webinar from CTGO
on this YouTube link (6). In it, Rick van Alphabet confirmed the construction had begun at
Manh Choh and in this early stage was on-budget and even a little ahead of the timeline (not a
bad thing) and with the roadways now dry firming up after the end of the thaw period, the
Kinross-led project has the authorization to truck in the heavy plant (e.g. the CAT 777s) in
around two weeks’ time. The projected AISC is also confirmed, at U$1,116/oz.
However and interestingly, most of last week’s webinar was on CTGO’s second project, Lucky
Shot North of Anchorage, as on Monday the company announced it’s initial resource summary
for this high grade underground past producing mine. There’s plenty of info, visuals and tables
in the NR so go see it all here (7) in our notes today we use the overall resource table:
Notes:
 The Lucky Shot project includes the Lucky Shot and Coleman veins, hence
that title line
 The resource uses a U$1,600/oz gold prices a 4.3 g/t Au cut-off and assumes
a minimum mining width of 3m. Those are reasonable and conservative
parameters.
13

 The total of 130,000 oz gold isn’t mind-blowing stuff, but CTGO has always
said that this is an early marker on what they are confident is there and the
company continues to target North of half a million ounces at these type of
high grades.
 It’s going to take a couple of seasons of exploration to drill and define a larger
resource, so don’t hold your breath on production. However, CTGO is looking
to build a valuable asset in the meantime and to fund it, we expect them to
run a placement in the near future.
The low volume makes trading tough, the current price level reflects most of the Manh Choh
value and while a great project and company, its shares won’t appeal unless the price dips a lot
lower. That may happen when CTGO finances its Lucky Shot program.
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v): We mentioned on Twitter on Thursday (8) some reliable but unconfirmed
gossip picked up about RIO.v:
While we wait for Rio2's $RIO.v appeal process for Fenix with Chile's govt, some
secondary news on $$. We hear Chile has reimbursed IVA (sales tax) owed to Rio2 of
~U$5m. Treasury now good for well into FY24.
Since then, that rumour has firmed up and we hear that it’s 100% true. The company has also
deemed it to be a material event and will announce the receipt via a NR within five days of
receiving the money (rather than just being told the cheque’s in the post). That NR may come
as early as this week. This is a good turn of events for a company in need of treasury to keep
its limited operations funded while the appeals process drags on and indeed, as guesstimated in
the Tweet last week and confirmed later, that’s more than enough to get RIO.v deep into 2024
without any extra dilution. Which wouldn’t be a good thing, of course. As by then we’d expect
the appeal process to be complete, the permits awarded and the company funded to build its
mine, all of which would make any near-term treasury problems a thing of the past.
We don’t know when the Comité de Ministros will call the appeal but the best guess has always
been mid-2023, perhaps July. If it’s announced before or we hear nothing into August, no
shooting the messenger please.
SolGold (SOLG.to) (SOLG.l): Our deep dive analysis on SOLG was in IKN718, dated February
19th 2023, on the day we called buy on the stock and took advantage of the lowest prices in
recent times. On a personal level I didn’t get in at the very lowest price and then topped up on
a couple of occasions soon after as the stock started to
move, so instead of boasting an entry price of 23c as it
was that weekend in Canada, we’re in for 26.5c and
that’s okay, what with the rally last weekend putting
some distance between the prices again.
Copper’s rally helped, of course, but SOLG also provided
its own fundamental reasons to like the stock again when
on Friday filing to SEDAR and LME news that major new
holder Jiangxi Copper of China, the buyers of those 155m
shares late last year, has subsequently upped its original
stake in SOLG by 25,753,608 shares and now owns
180,753,608 shares, or 6.02% of total shares out.
This is a positive for SOLG and we’ll have the opportunity to learn more this week (and ask
questions, as long as they are pre-submitted) when the company runs this free-to-attend
webinar (9) scheduled for this Thursday, June 22nd, at 1pm BST (which is 7am ET, so set an
alarm clock if required). I’ll be there, so expect notes and thoughts arising next weekend.
QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v): With just two weeks left on the clock for QCCU to keep to its
own timeline on the Opemiska updated MRE, I’m not the only one wondering whether it will
drop before the end of 2q23 and after a mail prompt from subscriber and fellow shareholder
14

‘MP’, I asked QCCU CEO Stephen Stewart. His reply was a classic straight bat (as they say in
cricketing circles): “…we’ve received many inquiries on the MRE and our uniform response is
“no comment” until there is news” and after a couple more failed attempts to get a little extra
information, I gave up.
All of which means they are on schedule, if you ask me. In trading, QCCU briefly poked its head
above the very stubborn 18c line last week and traded for a day and a half at 18.5c (even 19
for a trade or two), though would have augured better if it had held into Friday’s close.
The Copper Basket
After twenty-four weeks of 2023, The Copper Basket shows a loss of 5.16% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Solaris Res SLS.to 6.44 146.599 870.80 5.94 -7.8%
2 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.22 88.226 362.61 4.11 27.6%
3 Western Copper WRN.to 2.41 151.597 319.87 2.11 -12.4%
4 Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to 1.92 105.96 186.49 1.76 -8.3%
5 Oroco Res OCO.v 0.91 213.438 160.08 0.75 -17.6%
6 Faraday Copper FDY.to 0.54 175.2 140.16 0.80 48.1%
7 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.78 153.96 135.48 0.88 12.8%
8 Regulus Res. REG.v 1.10 124.509 112.06 0.90 -18.2%
9 Hot Chili HCH.v 0.78 119.455 107.51 0.90 15.4%
10 Pan Global Res PGZ.v 0.46 212.145 65.76 0.31 -32.6%
11 Kodiak Copper KDK.v 1.12 56.2 42.15 0.75 -33.0%
12 QC Copper QCCU.v 0.165 162.815 26.86 0.165 0.0%
13 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.16 86.966 13.91 0.16 0.0%
14 Libero Copper LBC.v 0.155 93.869 7.98 0.085 -45.2%
15 Atacama Copper ACOP.v 0.16 35.94 5.39 0.15 -6.3%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg -5.16%
Despite the continued gains in the price of copper The Copper Basket 2023, weekly evolution
12%
and the out-performance of the main copper 10%
producer’s ETF on the week, out Copper Basket 8%
6%
again had a modest loss over its average, not
4%
quite at the lows hit four weeks ago but indicative 2%
0%
of the sub-sector of pure explorecos struggling to
-2%
attract attention. We saw five week-over-week -4%
winners (SLS.to, MARI.to, ASCU.to, FDY.to, -6%
-8%
KDK.v), three unchanged stocks (HCH.v, REG.v,
QCCU.v) and seven losers (WRN.to, OCO.v,
ALDE.v, PGZ.v, ECU.v, LBC.v, ACOP.v). Of all
those, only one was a double figure winner
(FDY.to up 11.1%) and one a double figure loser
(ECU.v down 11.1%).
The subdued performance of our exclusively exploreco
basket compares to this, the main copper producers’
ETF (COPX) and the underlying spot copper price
(right). Quite the move, with big names such as
Freeport (FCX) leading the charge and causing
generalist headlines such as this one in Barron’s on
Friday (10):
“Buy This Copper Stock. Shares Could Soar 50%”
15
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81
source: IKN calcs

The stock in question? Why Freeport of course and while Barron’s may have a point, I’d back a
whole range of other copper names to add 50% before FCX gets to U$60.
Here’s a closer look at the copper price development in 2023 to date and we note on the visual
that despite the metal not owning a 4-
handle, we’re still higher than at the start of
the year. You wouldn’t realize that looking at
the state of the exploreco market, which now
looks ripe for a rally and with some obvious
low-hanging fruit. We mention one of them
in the notes below, but I’d also shamelessly
talk my own book and mention that QCCU,
ALDE, FDY and ARG all look like tremendous
value with copper now healing and the big
players getting bought up.
The major factor moving copper prices
higher in dollar terms last week is the most
basic of them all, a weaker dollar. Even the
China-centric trade site SMM said as much
(11) as it reported “Copper Prices Rebounded On Falling US Dollar Index”. Meanwhile, we also
got another round of Chinese-Copper-Consumers-Talk-Down-Copper-Demand (and we’ve been
through the psychology before) when Reuters gave us this quote (12)
“Recently, higher prices have curbed our willingness to buy copper, given the slow
demand in the traditional off-peak season,” said a Chinese copper rod producer.
All par for the course. However, the data quickly dispels the narrative that China is trying to sell
and for that, we turn to our regular weekly segment on copper inventories as the bullish signal
we identified this time last week has been underscored and highlighted:
 Another big down move for world copper stocks in the three official world systems last
week, this time the aggregate drawdown was 22,311 metric tonnes (mt) to close at
177,274m. The 200kmt line is now a memory and it looks like it’s going to stay that
way for the rest of the year. Watch out, copper bears.
 Another sharp drop in stocks at the SHFE, this week losing 15,383mt and closing at
61,090mt. I’ve been trying not to jump to conclusions but this continued velocity of
drawdown in what is normally a slack demand period for copper is telling. After a
pause, SHFE is now sending the same signal it did last year, there’s no copper out there
to satisfy demand. And yes, that’s as bullish as it comes from this dataset. Expect sub-
50kmt readings soon and market interest to start growing in the lack of copper helkd in
storage on the Asian coastline.
 More interesting stock movements at the LME, as even though over 134kmt arrived to
its warehouses on Friday the global total still dropped by 7,025mt to close at 90,625mt.
Cancelled warrants dropped from their spike high seen the week before, but still cover
16

34,200mt of metal and over a third of current stock.
 Small stuff at the Comex, which added 97mt on the week and closed at 25,559mt. No
biggie.
The dedicated SHFE charts show the way the draw down is now accelerating.
Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2014 to date
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
17
31'13ceD dr32 ht51 ht7 ht03 dn22 ht71 ht9 ts1von ht42 ht71 ht01 dn2tcO 7102ts1naJ ht62 ht81 ht01 dr3ced ht52 102ht72rpa ht91 ht11 9102
dr3bef
102ht82rpa ts12 ht31 0202ht5naj 202ht92ram ts12 ht31 0202ht6ced ht82 dr32 ht51 ht7 202ht03naj ht42 ht71 ht9 3202
naJ
ht62 ht81
Mt Cu
|
source: Cochilco
SHFE copper inventory levels, 2018 to 2023
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
MT Cu 2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
source: Cochilco data
Yes, this is bullish. Now for notes on a couple of our basket stocks:
Western Copper & Gold (WRN.to): We know this is a perennially disappointing stock and
these days, it’s not one I’m particularly interesting in owning over the long or even medium-
term. However, we also know it’s a volatile thing
and often plays catch-up to the wider copper
sector, so seeing it lose ground and back at what
looks like a baseline price level while COPX ran
higher suggests this could be a good place to put a
few near-term bets.
It also runs reasonable volume under normal
circumstances and has full-listing tickers in both
Canada (WRN.to) and The USA (WRN), so with The
USA closed for Juneteenth tomorrow, as long as
copper remains in a reasonable state into tomorrow
Monday few early buys on the Canadian market
may turn out to be a profitable flip. That’s my story
and I’m sticking to it.
Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.to): Aside my own book talk and WRN, this is the one I’d suggest as
a vehicle with which to ride a copper junior’s rally. Last week we got the final drill results (13)
before ASCU delivers its upcoming PFS, now expected in 1q24, which clears the field and may
allow “buy the rumour” momentum to show no matter what the PFS eventually delivers. Higher
profile than most copper explorecos and with a reasonable depth of insto following, its stock

has been lackluster 203 to date but that can change on a dime. The stock does enough volume
to trade in/out, which is another key component of a rebound trade.
Atacama Copper (ACOP.v): Alter leaving it open for six weeks, ACOP finally closed its
placement on Friday (14), raising $282k of the target $300k gross proceeds. It got difficult to
fill the remnant of an 18c placement with no warrant when the stock was trading between 15c
and 17c on the open market, so it was understandable. ACOP was deathly quiet for almost a
year before this small financing, here’s hoping it has something else to offer the market in the
second half of 2023.
Libero Copper (LBC.v): The dog continues to trade badly and reached new lows before half-
rebounding on Friday. After the close-up on Latin Metals
(LMS.v) last week in which we mentioned the
permitting issues at its Argentina Esperanza project, this
desk received mails from two separate subscribers, both
of them saying basically the same thing, “We had no
idea the project was opposed this much.” Well folks, did
you really expect a company run by people with an
established track record of deceit and double-talk to be
open and honest about the weaknesses in its story? We
repeat the relevant segment from last weekend, in the
main fundies section of IKN734:
“The issue is social and revolves around the
inhabitants of the local town of Jachal. This was the
town affected by the Veladero cyanide spill into the local water supply a few years ago
and since then, its militant anti-mining people have stopped several projects from
moving forward and they include Esperanza. The specific problem with Esperanza,
according to locals, is that the hill on which it is located (Cerro Huachi) is one of the
sources for the local water supply that runs directly to the town. Using that premise,
the anti-mining group “Asamblea Jáchal No Se Toca” (The “Don’t’ Touch Jáchal
Assembly”) has been successful in blocking the project from going forward on the
grounds that it would pollute and/or disrupt the local water (3). We’ve just seen a
regional governor’s election in San Juan and the politicking that went on before the
vote may be the reason behind the extended delay for LBC’s drill permits. If so, they
may happen soon and that would provide LMS with a free ride of 30% on the
discovery phase as LBC drills its target. However, the doubts remain as to whether
these permits will ever arrive. Therefore it’s best not to rely too heavily on the
potential upside to LMS from this project. With those permits, seeing will be believing.”
The Producer Basket
After 24 weeks of 2023, the Producer Basket shows a gain of 6.10% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 47.20 799 35.02 43.83 -7.1%
2 Barrick GOLD 17.18 1761.54 29.44 16.71 -2.7%
3 Agnico Eagle AEM 51.99 488.9 24.93 51.00 -1.9%
4 Wheaton PM WPM 39.08 451.963 20.28 44.87 14.8%
5 Kinross Gold KGC 4.09 1256.1 6.13 4.88 19.3%
6 Alamos Gold AGI 10.11 393.1 4.81 12.24 21.1%
7 B2Gold BTG 3.57 1074.567 3.93 3.66 2.5%
8 Hecla Mining GFI 5.56 610.491 3.23 5.29 -4.9%
9 Eldorado Gold EGO 8.36 185.73 1.89 10.18 21.8%
10 Wesdome Gold WDOFF 5.53 147.526 0.80 5.43 -1.8%
All prices and stock quotes in U$ Port. avg 6.10%
Our basket of ten stocks lost a full 0.9% against the GDX benchmark last week and that puts us
18

3.53% behind in our semi-serious annual competition to try to beat the market. That’s a big
and painful difference in one week caused by a combination of factors:
 Newmont (NEM) finally got out of its recent rut and found bidders, improving 5.7% on the
week. We have NEM as one of our ten, but the GDX has it as its highest weighted stock and
would have benefited more than us.
 The GDX also has Newcrest as one of its large weighted components and as NEM moves
these days, so does NCM. We didn’t get any of that benefit.
 Barrick got semi-whacked when news hit that it had been courting First Quantum (FM.to)
and had made an informal offer to acquire, after several months of talks. As a result GOLD
was down in an up week.
 Several stocks, e.g. Wesdome (WDO.to), got weighed down by Friday index rebalancing
trades.
The net result of all that are these charts:
The 2023 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
comparative to GDX control
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
We managed to improve by a tenth, the GX was up a full percent. Our ten saw five winners
(NEM, AEM, WPM, KGC, EGO) and five losers (GOLD, AGI, BTG, HL, WDOFF) and while most of
those moves were small, the sum total of a near-wash doesn’t sit well compared to the market
average. I am a monkey, this is a dartboard.
Wesdome Gold (WDOFF) (WDO.to): Some good news as WDO announced last week that
the abatement of the forest fires in the Quebec and surrounding regions (thank you firefighters,
thank you rainfall) meant that its could get back to full scale operations at Kiena. With luck,
they won’t have lost any time in the ramp-up schedule. Or perhaps that should read “With luck
they won’t use the stoppage as an excuse later”. However, the market has treated WDO
somewhat unfairly:
That Friday volume spike is due to index rebalancing and may also have something to do with
the delayed (non?) reaction of WDO stock to the unwinding of the negative situation at Kiena.
If so, keep an eye on WDO to out-perform averages in the week ahead.
19
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81
The 2023 Producer Basket: Percentage difference
between GDX benchmark & basket (negative = IKN ahead)
4.0%
ikn 3.5%
gdx control 3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
source: NYSE, IKN calcs ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81
source: IKN calcs, NYSE data

Barrick (GOLD): I had to laugh when reading this mini-scoop from Bloomberg on Thursday
(15), subsequently reported in no end of other places:
First Quantum Said to Rebuff Informal Approach From Barrick
Barrick made overtures to $16.5 billion miner in recent months
Gold producer has been looking for ways to expand in copper
First Quantum Minerals Ltd. recently rebuffed an informal takeover approach from
Barrick Gold Corp., the world’s second-largest producer of the precious metal, as
miners scour the globe for deals, people with knowledge of the matter said.
Barrick made overtures to First Quantum in the last few months as part of its search for
ways to expand in copper, the people said. First Quantum indicated it wasn’t keen on a
combination (etc)…”
Indeed, this is the same Barrick and the same Mark Bristow that’s been banging on about its
disdain for the M&A market at current prices and how its future was set fair thanks to organic
growth. And the non-denials from both parties (here’s Reuters playing catch-up to Bloomie
(16))…
“First Quantum did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment, while
Barrick said the company does not comment on market speculation.”
…tell you all you need to know, that this gossip is solid. So nice scoop from Bloomie and here’s
how the market reacted to the news:
Barrick took a hit, FM.to popped and adjusted, while the market medians for copper (FCX and
COPX) improved slightly as the perception of a new round of M&A activity took hold….but nor if
FCX. The news has plenty of logic behind it too, as despite its “we don’t need to acquire”
position taken by GOLD in 2023 to date (as it pooh-poohed the NEM/NCM deal at every turn),
we know the company is keen on the future of copper and we know it has the treasury
firepower to get out there and find a deal. First Quantum (FM.to) is one of the few world level
miners with enough market cap size and enough exposure to copper to move Barrick’s dial, so
the fit makes sense as well.
As for what this might mean to other companies, the one that springs to this desk’s mind is
Lundin (LUN.to), which is also the right size and metals mix for Barrick’s tastes.
Newmont (NEM): Two things about the Peñasquito strike:
1) Now into its 11th day, the NEM management has filed (17) with Mexico’s Federal Industrial
Tribunal to declare the strike “Non-Existent” (i.e. illegal or invalid). This makes for an
interesting situation, as the 2,000 miners in the striking union (or around 2,800 of the total
workforce) are from the union run by Napoleón Gómez Urrutia, a.k.a. Napo the Morena senator
and close ally of President AMLO.
2) The market obviously does not care about the ongoing stoppage at the mine. As long as the
share price keeps rallying, NEM will find it easy to take a hard line against the strikers.
20

The TinyCaps List
After 24 weeks of 2023, the TinyCaps show a gain of 13.32% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Aurelius Min AUL.v 0.07 49.787 1.00 0.02 -71.4%
Coast Copper COCO.v 0.045 64.001 3.20 0.05 11.1%
District Metals DMX.v 0.075 86.891 8.25 0.095 26.7%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.13 69.962 10.84 0.155 19.2%
Manitou Gold MTU.v 0.02 344.568 18.95 0.055 175.0%
Nine Mile Metals NINE.cse 0.29 57.025 6.27 0.11 -62.1%
Palamina Corp PA.v 0.08 65.285 7.18 0.11 37.5%
Precipitate Gold PRG.v 0.075 130.367 6.52 0.05 -33.3%
South Star STS.v 0.55 32.755 19.65 0.60 9.1%
Viva Gold VAU.v 0.14 91.608 15.57 0.17 21.4%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 13.32%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $20m. They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a
little and allowed sub-U$20m market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, but it was a particularly depressing exercise to trawl through the whole of the TSXV and find companies
that are small enough, but with life in them. The vast majority of sub-$20m stocks are broken stocks, either
traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2023. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or
people with good peer reputations.
TinyCaps, 2023 weekly tracker
50%
A slight loss for the basket average, but in reality we’ve 45%
40%
been flatlining for the last four weeks. This time five of
35%
our ten were unchanged (AUL.v, COCO.v, MTU.v, PRG.v, 30%
25%
VAU.v), two were winners (LMS.v, PA.v) and three were
20%
losers (DMX.v, NINE.cse, STS.v) and the biggest move 15%
10%
of all was a 14.3% loss in South Star (STS.v), so much
5%
for the increase in quiet coverage on that tinycap 0%
recently.
Just two stocks get notes this week:
Palamina Corp (PA.v): With its drill permits sectured, PA now has money. On Thursday and
after one calendar month, PA announced (18) the full take-up of its $750,000 placement, selling
6m units (unit = share + whole warrant priced at 25c) at 12.5c each, which compares
favourably to the 11c close on the week. PA now has permits, funds and a Puno back open for
business, we can expect real news out of the Orogenisc zone in the second half of the year.
This stock has been annoying to follow to date and readers may remember that I owned and
followed PA on the main Stocks to Follow list in 2021 and 2022. There’s still a lot to like about
its potential and now, with the opportunity to drill in what it considers one of its most promising
targets of its very large land position, I’ll be keeping a close eye on its NRs.
Nine Mile Metals (NINE.cse): After casting suspicions its way for some time, last week we
finally threw NINE on to the official “For Suckers Only” pile after its latest “XRF Assays” NR. This
week the stock would have finished lower if it weren’t for some Friday afternoon propping, with
around C$2,500 in late afternoon purchases enough to move the stock 10% into the close and
21
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4nuj ht11 ht81
source: IKN calcs, TSX data

add over half a million to its market cap. It’s why tapes get painted, after all.
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future
I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
Ecuador: The Presidential race starts and this time we mean it
Due to the decision by President Guillermo Lasso to dissolve his administration and Congress
under the “muerte cruzada” clause and call quick election and according to the official rules of
Ecuador votes, the campaign period isn’t supposed to start until the first week in August. As the
vote happens on August 20th, it means it would be the shortest campaign in LatAm history, so
instead all candidates have made the unofficial agreement to allow campaigning as soon as
their party candidatures were registered with Ecuador’s electoral authority, the CNE. As that
happened on Tuesday (along with police using tear gas to break up demonstrations, enough to
send the RC candidate Luisa González to a clinic due to inhalation) and we have all candidates
registered, the race is now off and running. We should also note that on Friday, the CNE
provisionally accepted seven of the eight lists for President but objected to the Luisa
González/Andrés Arauz ticket. This doesn’t mean they are prohibited from running yet, but the
candidates have 48 hours to address the issues raised by the CNE and correct them.
Theoretically the candidature is under threat and as this is Ecuador, anything can happen and
often does. But it would be an outright scandal if the ticket presented by the biggest current
political party in the country and probable frontrunner for the election were stopped on a
technicality at the inscription level, so for the moment we assume Luisa González will run as
expected
We don’t have any decent opinion polls on voter intention yet, so in the interest of
completeness and to get them all named at least once, here are the eight presidential tickets as
registered with the CNE last week. You get the name of the Presidential candidate, their
running mate in brackets, the official name of their party and just for fun, I’ve added a literal
translation of the party name in English to give you an idea of the funky names they use. Below
the bullet point list, some thoughts.
 Daniel Noboa (Veep Verónica Abad): alianza ADN (ADN alliance). Noboa is the son of the
banana magnate Álvaro Noboa, who himself ran for the President’s job no fewer than six
times. The Noboa family represents a standard right wing, pro-business political position and
Noboa Fils is the candidate most likely to attract voters who went for Guillermo Lasso in the
first round of the last election (the second round run-off vote is a worse guide) and he’ll have
plenty of cash to spend on his campaign.
 Bolívar Armijos (Veep Linda Romero): movimiento Amigo (Friend Movement). Previously
part of the Correa UNES alliance, Armijos is politically centre-left to left wing and has a
chequered history in Ecuadorian politics. Unlikely to be a front-runner in this election, any
Congress seats picked up by his party would likely form an alliance with the RC party bloc
(see below).
22

 Fernando Villavicencio (Veep Andrea González): alianza Gente Buena/Construye (Good
People/Construct alliance): From the political centre and a member of the recently disolved
Congreso (Assembly), Fernando Villavicencio has carved out a strong reputation for fighting
corruption in politics and has led investigations against prominent politicians and parties from
both right and left. He may be the surprise package in this election.
 Otto Sonnenholzner (Veep Érika Paredes): alianza Actuemos (We Act alliance).
Sonnenholzner was Vice-President for a year and a half during the Lenin Moreno presidency,
standing down in mid-2020 to run for the main job. He represents the political centre-right.
Still young, will turn 40 later this year. Unlikely to make the run-off.}
 Jan Topic (Veep Diana Jácome): alianza Juntos Triunfaremos (Together We Will Triumph
alliance). The wildcard candidate of this election, Jan Topic has an eclectic background
including being born into money, a military mercenary with combat action in several world
conflicts, and a successful businessman in his own right on his return to Ecuador. He’ll run on
a populist right wing platform and make plenty of play of his macho image. Notably, he’s
backed by the established right wing conservative PSC party and this will give him a campaign
advantage.
 Yaku Pérez (Veep Nory Pinela): alianza Claro Que se Puede (Of Course We Can alliance).
Yaku Pérez is the ecologist and left wing candidate who was controversially pipped for second
place by Lasso in the last election by just a few thousand votes, not making the run-off
against Andrés Arauz after contested ballots went against him. Back then he was running as
the official Pachakutik party candidate and that meant the backing of the larger umbrella
indigenous movement CONAIE. He broke with Pachakutik soon after and this time runs as an
independent, but his ticket got the official backing of the Pachakutik party last week and that
will help his cause. Ecuador’s quasi Green Party candidate, he is as strongly anti-mining as
ever and that’s a net vote winner in Ecuador, but to confuse things please note that getting
the backing of Pachakutik doesn’t mean he gets the larger and more CONAIE as well (mostly
due to the divisions inside the umbrella that is CONAIE. That is a handicap for his campaign
this time.
 Xavier Hervas (Veep Luz Marina Vega): movimiento RETO (Challenge movement): Xavier
Hervas is a successful businessman and though difficult to pin down politival, is best
pigeonholed as centre-right. He was the surprise package of the 2021 election, coming from
nowhere to finish in fourth and given a longer campaign period, his momentum may have got
him into the run-off. Since the last election he’s maintained his political profile and will start
his challenge with plenty of public recognition. He made extensive use of social media in his
last campaign.
 Luisa González (Veep Andrés Arauz): movimiento RC (Citizen’s Revolution movement). Alter
the fun and game of last weekend when Rafael Correa’s close friend and prisoner convicted
for corruption Jorge Glas was first nominated and then declined the nomination, Correa’s
Citizen’s Revolution party has gone with ex-congress member Luisa González as its candidate,
with the beaten candidate against Lasso in 2021 Andrés Arauz as her running mate. The only
woman running for President, González has a good reputation among party faithful and after
the Citizen’s Revolution party’s strong showing in the municipal and regional elections earlier
this year, she will start favourite for this election. At the very least, it would be a major shock
if she doesn’t make the second round run-off.
We have two months for campaigning and then on August 20th, with Ecuador’s political scene
as fractured as it is, we can safely assume no candidate will get 50%+1 vote. That means two
of the above eight will go into a second round run-off vote, currently tentatively slated for
October.
Now for what this election means for mining. Notably, the Pachakutik party isn’t running its own
candidate and will support Yaku Pérez in his attempt, but getting the party political arm of
CONAIE to support your cause does not mean you get all of CONAIE behind you, either. That’s
mostly due to the internal politics of CONAIE and its own brand of infighting and it gets
23

complicated from this point (plenty of weeds to get into, send a mail with questions if you’d like
to know more), but in practical terms it means that other parties can negotiate and reach deals
with CONAIE in order to get grassroots support from specific indigenous groups. For example,
Rafael Correa (the power behind the Luisa González candidature) has already made open
overtures toward the head of CONAIE, Leonidas Iza, in order to form a possible alliance. Iza
has shown himself to be a smart political operator in recent years and his decision not to run
(see IKN733) allows him a kingmaker role. He’ll be able to impose at least some of his agenda
on other candidates if they want support from his very large following and we already know
that the anti-mining agenda is high on his list. We saw that last week, when protest marches
against all mining were held by CONAIE in 10 regions of Ecuador on Wednesday and be clear,
the position is that ALL mining, be it legal, illegal, artisanal, large-scale or whatever, is
unwanted by CONAIE.
Seeing Iza/CONAIE do a deal in which CONAIE offers support to a (non-Yaku Perez) candidate
in return for support for its anti-mining agenda, be that in round one or the run-off, is a likely
scenario. An outright ban for mining isn’t going to happen, but a practical alternative is CONAIE
getting any incoming government to adhere to the letter the agreement reached after the
protests of 2022. that would entail a moratorium on mining development for a specific period
and non development before community agreements had been reached. The optics on these
options would be very negative for the industry and put an indefinite halt on exploration and
development projects, especially those in the contentious zones and with long-standing
community opposition.
I’m going to leave real conjecture on who might win and what it might mean for mining until
the campaign is underway and we know more about the potential pacts and alliances, but will
very tentatively float on possible scenario. If we assume Luisa González is allowed to run by the
CNE, becomes the frontrunner and at least gets to the second round run-off (all very likely), we
should recall that her RC party is controlled almost totally by Rafael Correa and he has a long
track record of doing deals and welcoming Chinese investment capitals into Ecuador. This is one
of the reasons why SolGold (SOLG.to) stands apart from the rest of the Ecuador exploreco
plays, along with its less controversial geographical location and reasonable community
relations position. It bears repeating that not all Ecuador mining plays are the same and while
Lundin Gold (LUG.to) will continue to do great business, projects such as Loma Larga are
untouchable as investments in today’s backdrop. Understanding where each company is located
on that scale is vital for its investment potential.
Chile: A CESCO report on mine project delays
Adding to the growing number of studies on the delay to mining projects and the growth
bottlenecks comes this from Chile’s study group CESCO last week (19) which analysed 80
projects in Chile that were put into the construction phase between 2006 and 2020. The 12
page Spanish language report is mostly tables and charts so not too difficult to read (get your
own copy and have a look) but the bottom line is that the average construction delay for the 62
large-scale mining projects studied was 4.3 years. While the average cost overrun for these
large-scale projects was 65% as the projected average of U$1.233Bn falling short of the final
capex average of U$2.033Bn. The average construction delay for the 18 medium-scale mining
projects studied was 6.3 years, while their average cost overrun was lower at 11% (from
U$249m to U$278m).
The study concludes that cost overruns and delays are critical factors for future projects and
there’s an increased aversion to investment due to this. The study lays blame at a number of
factors, including permit delays, macro inflation and over-optimistic company projections.
Mexico: AMLO’s final year and an early look at the 2024 election: An early look
Believe it or not, but we’re now less than a year away from the next Presidential and
Congressional election in Mexico, a country that’s been getting negative press in the mining
world recently due to the apparent block on new open pit mines (which, as we’ve noted
previously, is a false polemic). As such, today gets our first overview of the politics that will
24

affect Mexico in next 12 months and set out what’s known about the early scene for the
election.
First the basics: The General election (as it is called) is scheduled for June 2nd 2024, it will elect
a new President as well as all the seats in the Congress, both lower and upper houses.
Regarding the Presidential race, unlike most LatAm countries these days Mexico’s election is
one round only, a simple system where the candidate that gets most votes wins, no matter
whether they get a majority or minority of the popular vote total. Presidents cannot run for re-
election and the new mandate will begin in December 2024.
Now for a look at the early running and for that, this recent article from AS/COA (20) does a
good job in the English language, first by noting that despite being in power for five years
current President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, .a.k.a. AMLO, still enjoys an approval rating of
around 65% and has rarely dipped under 60% for the whole of his presidential period. Also and
probably more importantly, 55% of Mexicans say their country is on the right path, with only
32% saying the country is on a bad path). With that backdrop understood, here’s the graphic in
the AS/COA article showing early voter intention on a party level:
As you can see, AMLO’s MORENA party is still enjoying widespread support and even, as is
expected, the three “traditional” Mexican political parties PAN, PRI and PRD band together in
alliance to offer just one candidate for the election, their current combined 29% is up against
41% support for whoever MORENA nominate.
As for who that might be, there are other names bandied about (e.g. Ebrard), but the
frontrunner to take over from AMLO is and has been for some time one Claudia Sheinbaum
Pardo, who until this week and for five years was the equivalent of Governor of Mexico City.
She has a high profile among voters and is popular inside her party, she’s also been forthright
about her ambitions and says Mexico is now ready to vote for its first ever female President. If
you’d like more, I was surprised to find that the English language Wiki page on her (21) is
almost as good as the Spanish version, so plenty of extra background for those with the
inclination and if you do, you’ll probably note her academic background and papers on climate-
related subjects (effect of cement industry on CO2 emissions, etc). Perhaps not the profile the
mining industry would want from the early frontrunner.
It’s still VERY early days in the election process and today is merely our early marker on it, the
race won’t truly hot up until 2024. Watching brief.
25

Market Watching
Vox Royalty (VOXR.to) (VOXR) raises expensive capital
A small royalty company with an innovative approach, Vox Royalty (VOXR.to) (VOXR) has been
mentioned on these pages before and it’s a company I’ve kept an eye on over the past couple
of years, mainly because it never goes “cheap enough to buy”, as the saying goes. That
happens with some stocks, they seem to be priced to perfection over long periods and even if
they dip, buyers come in and ignore the relative value offered by peers. Therefore I was most
interested to watch last week as in three snappy NRs, VOXR announced (22) it was running an
equity financing on Monday June 12th, priced the offering at U$2.40 on Tuesday 13th, then
closed the deal on Friday 16th. All wrapped up in a week, but unfortunately for the company
and its established shareholders the effect on the stock price was as sharp as the speed of the
placement (we use the US ticker):
Down 12.3% on the week, the deal to raise a relatively modest sum of U$7.29 by selling
3.025m shares (we exclude the effects of the 453,750 share overallotment facility, still open)
has hurt more than it healed. I’ve included the under-achiever of them all, the awful Amir
Adnani vehicle Gold Royalty (GROY), as context to show that things could be worse but as the
last week indicates, with one move VOXR has slipped from royalty/streamer market leader to
pack average. Here’s the context in three bullet points:
 The day before the placement was announced, VOXR was a U$2.68 stock so, with its
45.127m shares out, it ran a market cap of U$120.94m.
 Today with the placement closed VOXR is a U$2.35 stock and has a new share count of
48.152m shares out, therefore a market cap of U$113.16m.
 In other words, even after raising U$7.26m and adding a net of U$6.19m in hard cash
to its structure, the company’s valuation has dropped by U$7.78m.
This was an ill-advised and badly thought out equity placement. VOXR has active paying
royalties and made a gross profit of nearly U$3m in its last reported quarter (to March 31st), it’s
not as if it was desperate to raise survival funds. There was no real need to raise such a modest
amount of capital at such a discount and note the excessive friction on the deal, U$1.07m in
costs is 14.7% of the gross. In effect, VOXR sold its shares at U$2.05 apiece effective. That’s a
problem, because it gave us on the outside a clear insight into what those on the inside think
its shares are worth.
And if VOXR doesn’t think their shares are worth U$2.68 each, why should we?
I’d been watching VOXR from a middle distance as a potential to replace my fast waning
interest in the disappointing Sandstorm (SAND) (SSL.to), but without diving in because of
concern about the quality of some of the NSRs it holds that look good on paper, but may be
difficult to collect upon come the day. So this strategic mistake from a management team that
caught my interest in the first place when being called “the smartest people in the room” has
26

dampened my enthusiasm. There’s nothing smart about what we saw from VOXR last week,
quite the contrary, in fact.
Conclusion
IKN735 is done, we end with bullet points:
 You’re not going to know whether I trade in and out of AbraSilver (ABRA.v) next week
until IKN736 next Sunday. Frankly, I won’t know if I do until tomorrow morning when
the market opens and the offer is in front of me, but the set-up looks very promising
and these are the reasons I keep a emergency level of cash in the portfolio at nearly all
times. If it’s back in cash by Friday, all good.
 Surge Copper (SURG.v) isn’t the only junior exploreco in the tough position of having a
valid project and behest to a tough market to fund its progress, but the topicality of its
PEA and the extra pieces it brings to the table makes it a good case study. One for the
Watch list going forward and if the macro circumstances change a share price that
could improve in multiples. Lots of ifs.
 The Ecuador election is going to be interesting for the mining sector, though I fear it
will be more like the Chinese “May you live in interesting times” curse. I’m still happy
about holding through the SolGold trade, as that ahs more protection to the slings and
arrows of the campaign as well as an obvious out, as Chinese money will not fear a
Correa-controlled government.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stock is Minera Alamos (MAI.v). Flash
updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best wishes, Mark
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://surgecopper.com/news-releases/surge-copper-announces-maiden-berg-pea-c-2.1-billion-npv8-and-20-irr/
(2) https://surgecopper.com/investors/presentations-events/
(3) https://www.houston-today.com/news/imperial-metals-places-re-opening-of-huckleberry-mine-on-its-to-do-list/
(4) https://latin-metals.com/news-releases/latin-metals-reports-rock-chip-sampling-results-at-tillo-copper-project-peru/
(5) https://www.westernexploration.com/news-and-updates/news/news-details/2023/Western-Exploration-Announces-
Closing-of-Private-Placement-of-Units-for-Gross-Proceeds-of-4.55-Million/default.aspx
(6) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WhPK1yQyau4
(7) https://www.contangoore.com/press-release/contango-ore-issues-initial-s-k-1300-resource-technical-report-
summary-for-the-lucky-shot-project-alaska-indicated-grades-average-15-g-t
(8) https://twitter.com/Mark_IKN/status/1669524052795355137
(9) https://www.investormeetcompany.com/solgold-plc/register-investor
(10) https://www.barrons.com/articles/buy-freeport-mcmoran-stock-price-pick-95cf6f5c?s=09
(11) https://news.metal.com/newscontent/102255725/Copper-Prices-Rebounded-On-Falling-US-Dollar-Index/
27

(12) https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/copper-heads-for-3rd-weekly-gain-on-softer-dollar-china-stimulus-bets/
(13) https://arizonasonoran.com/news-releases/arizona-sonoran-releases-final-pfs-drilling-results/
(14) https://atacamacopper.ca/news/atacama-copper-announces-closing-of-private-placement-financing/
(15) https://news.bloomberglaw.com/mergers-and-acquisitions/first-quantum-is-said-to-rebuff-informal-approach-from-
barrick
(16) https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/first-quantum-shuns-barrick-golds-informal-takeover-offer-bloomberg-news
(17) https://elpais.com/mexico/2023-06-16/penasquito-la-principal-productora-de-oro-en-mexico-al-borde-de-la-
huelga.html
(18) https://www.palamina.com/news/2023/6/15/palamina-completes-750000-private-placement
(19) https://www.df.cl/empresas/mineria/proyectos-de-inversion-de-gran-mineria-tardan-4-3-anos-mas-de-lo
(20) https://www.as-coa.org/articles/approval-tracker-mexicos-president-amlo
(21) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Claudia_Sheinbaum
(22) https://www.voxroyalty.com/news/
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2022
Closed in 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
Goldshore Res GSHR.v Nov'22 C$0.18 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 88.9% Quick profit taken
Palamina Corp PA.v Dec'22 C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.08 -72.9% Clear-out of underperformer
Pure Gold PGM.h Dec'22 C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.015 -89.3% tiny trade on vh risk, went Ch11
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Set-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
28

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
29

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
30

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
31