IKN #730Premium

The IKN Weekly
Week 730, May 14th 2023
Contents
This Week: In Today’s Edition, A brief opener.
Fundamental Analysis: Equinox Gold (EQX) (EQX.to): A true value mid-cap.
Stocks to Follow: Chesapeake Gold (CKG.v), Western Exploration (WEX.v), Minera Alamos
(MAI.v), QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v), Goldshore Resources (GSHR.v), Newcore Gold (NCAU.v),
AbraSilver Resource Corp (ABRA.v), Aldebaran (ALDE.v), Orefinders (ORX.v), Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v).
Copper Basket: Overview, Pan Global Resources (PGZ.v), Atacama Copper (ACOP.v),
Marimaca Copper (MARI.to).
Producer Basket: Overview, Newmont and Newcrest (NEM) (NCM), Hecla Mining Company
(HL), Wesdome Gold (WDOFF).
TinyCaps Basket: Overview, South Star (STS.v).
Regional Politics: Chile: Fall-out from last weekend’s Constitutional assembly, Ecuador:
Showtime for Lasso, Ecuador signs its FTA with China, Peru: Four legs good two legs better.
Market Watching: Deferred.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
In Today’s Edition
 The main Fundies section takes a closer look at the interestingly priced Equinox Gold
(EQX) (EQX.to). We use the avenue of production numbers from its seven operations
and the potential its expansion project Greenstone offers to back into the financials and
decide whether the company is in good shape to complete on its plans and show good
profitability once Greenstone is up and running.
 We’ve made noises about the potential for weak copper market action for the last
couple of editions, last week the pigeons came home to roost and copper dropped out
of the U$3.80/lb range, our “need to take action” line in the sand. We use today’s
Copper Basket to explain why I’m going to be chicken for one more week and remain
as-stands with my out-sized exposure to copper. We also outline the plan of action if
things stay soft.
 We do some extra work in the Producer Basket this week, as even though we’re not
here to cover the larger caps (he says, after literally dedicating his week to Equinox)
the results from Hecla (HL) and Wesdome (WDOFF) are worth a few lines. Theya re,
after all, on this year’s list for more proactive reasons.
 It’s about to get real in Ecuador, Tuesday is the showdown between President
Guillermo Lasso and the country’s Congress, on the line is the Presidency. Regional
Politics also covers the latest from Chile as that country moves towards the political
right and from Peru, which has been dragged kicking and screaming in the same
direction under replacement President Boluarte.
1

A brief opener
Last week saw a continuation of our general macro thesis:
 Gold stayed around the U$2,000/oz level and we’ve now been right on that
call for two months
 Copper sold off, as per our recent fears US Consumer Price Inflation (CPI)
 US CPI and PPI were benign, with the
headline CPI at 4.9% (chart right) a
tenth better than consensus  The debate about hard/soft landing
and/or recession continued to rage, but
there’s a growing consensus that the Fed
is now done raising rates
We haven’t made much of a thing about silver
recently, but its move from the U$26/oz line to
close just under U$24/oz is the type of heavy drop we expect from the Jekyll and Hyde metal
when the world starts to price in recession. In fact, the only real change we need to deal with is
the copper drop and what it means to a copper-junior-rich portfolio such as mine, so for that
I’ve dedicated space in today’s Copper Basket, rather than make a long-winded job of the intro
(once again). So one brief word on gold and we’re done, using the usual suspect GLD inventory
tracking charts as our guide. But first, this:
Last week was marked by the unusual stubbornness in the price of gold bullion, compared to
both the US Dollar (here DXY) and its cousin metal, silver. Under normal circumstances gold
would play its “anti-dollar” role, but recent improvement in the USD hasn’t seen gold move back
down. That was reflected in the “not-so-bad” performance of the GDX and while the precious
metals miners were down, they performed markedly better than silver bullion. It all points to
interesting relative strength in gold and The Fear Trade is beginning to see some takers. We
also saw this in GLD:
GLD inventory tonnages rose by 5.8 metric tonnes on the week and the gradual pick-up in
2
4.1 7.1
6.2
2.4
0.5 4.5 4.5 3.5 4.5 2.6 8.6 0.7 5.7 9.7 5.8 3.8 6.8 1.9 5.8 3.8 2.8 7.7 1.7 5.6 4.6 0.6 0.5
9.4
5.3
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0 4.0 3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
12'naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 22'naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 32'naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced
source: U.S. BLS
GLD gold holdings, 2022 to date (metric tonnes)
1120
1100
1080
1060
1040
1020
1000
980
960
940
920
900
880
860
12/21/13 22/1/41 22/1/82 22/2/11 22/2/52 22/3/11 22/3/52 22/4/8 22/4/22 22/5/6 22/5/02 22/6/3 22/6/71 22/7/1 22/7/51 22/7/92 22/8/21 22/8/62 22/9/9 22/9/32 22/01/7 22/01/12 22/11/4 22/11/81 22/21/2 22/21/61 22/21/03 32/1/31 32/1/72 32/2/01 32/2/42 32/3/01 32/3/42 32/4/7 32/4/12 32/5/5
mt 6.80 GLD: Inventory/Price Ratio, 2022 to date
6.60
source: SPDR GLD data
6.40
6.20
6.00
5.80
5.60
5.40
5.20
5.00
4.80
12/21/13 22/1/41 22/1/82 22/2/11 22/2/52 22/3/11 22/3/52 22/4/8 22/4/22 22/5/6 22/5/02 22/6/3 22/6/71 22/7/1 22/7/51 22/7/92 22/8/21 22/8/62 22/9/9 22/9/32 22/01/7 22/01/12 22/11/4 22/11/81 22/21/2 22/21/61 22/21/03 32/1/31 32/1/72 32/2/01 32/2/42 32/3/01 32/3/42 32/4/7 32/4/12 32/5/5
Source: SPDR data, IKN calcs

buyers among the suited and booted of Wall St continues. But as our sentiment tracker chart
(above right) shows, we’re still in absolute wash-out levels and there’s a lot of room for more
buyers in the financial world.
Our mooted improvement in gold away from the U$2,000/oz, as supposed last weekend, may
have to wait a while longer. However, I’ll be happy enough to see gold stay at the U$2,000/oz
mark as long as inflation continues to ease the way it’s doing, that’s the macro green light for
better margins and costs for the mining stocks.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Equinox Gold (EQX) (EQX.to): A true value mid-cap
You’ll have to excuse the over-use of the first person today, but this has become personal. To
set the scene, I’ve done three recent notes on Equinox Gold (EQX.v) as follows:
 In IKN719 dated February 26th 2023 and the note in Market Watching, “Equinox Gold (EQX)
4q22 financials review”, in which I made my first on-record noises about liking the way EQX
was shaping up. That note came at its low price ebb for the year and after EQX made quick
strides on the back of the improvement in gold price. Though I didn’t buy personally, it was
clear that the company and its stock would do well if gold ran, what with its high relative cash
cost on its large (500k oz+) annual production and the market leverage that brings to the
table.
 In IKN728 dated April 30th 2023, I published “Marking cards on Equinox Gold (EQX)” in the
main fundies section to preview EQX’s 1q23 financials, out in the days that would follow (1).
We made guesses and again stated interest in buying into the stock.
 Then last week in IKN729, I added a short note to say that before making any further decision
on the stock I wanted to get granular with its numbers. My guesstimates seen in IKN728 for
its 1q23 report weren’t close enough to be valid, I wanted to learn why and until I had a
better handle on how the company produced its gold and the shape of the future quarters, I
wasn’t ready to make a proactive call on the stock.
And now I am. It’s been a long time since I burrowed deep on a multi-mine operator with a big
market cap, but that’s what I found myself doing last week and as a result, I now have too
much information to squeeze into a single fundies report. However, while crunching the
numbers and considering the company, along the way it became clear that the way to get a
good handle on EQX was to consider its production profile, both on an individual mine level and
as a consolidated whole. Usefully and unlike some other miners, EQX production and sales
numbers per quarter and normally very close to each other, which means production is a good
proxy to revenues. But more importantly, this high average cash cost mining company is highly
dependent on volumes sold to maintain its margins and justify its business model. When
considering a multi-mine company (this one has seven) the way forward is to find a hack that
gets to the brass tacks of the company and allows reasonable modelling. In this case, the
margin EQX runs between AISC and received gold price is the main price driver so if we can
work out where that margin is going, we can determine if there’s value in the equity.
That’s the premise of today’s note. We begin with a brief tour of its seven operating mines and
its main development catalyst to set the scene and show a little of the more granular data then
a word on the major catalyst in 2024, the Greenstone project in ON Canada. Once that’s done
we lump production together and with the history of mine site costs combined, we can get a
reasonable handle on what to expect from EQX in the next quarters of 2023 and then in the
years to come as Greenstone comes online. In so many words, today’s main fundies report on
EQX is the synthesis of your author’s deep dive and will try to cover the angles as concisely as
possible. You get:
 A few words and two charts showing production and costs at each of its
3

operating mines.
 Aggregate charts on production, production forecasts, costs and margins
 The Greenstone Effect
 Putting it all together and making a call
So let’s get on with it, starting with a tour of the EQX mines which we’ll do in rough order,
largest to smallest:
1) Los Filos: The mine that brings EQX its biggest community headaches, Los Filos in Guerrero
Mexico is also a bit of a money pit. The day it unlocks the full potential of the underground
Bermejal underground zone will transform the mine, but it’s an expensive project and EQX
(rightly in my opinion) has deferred that capex project until after Greenstone is operational. As
a result, Los Filos today is mostly sub 1g/t open pit (Guadalupe and Los Filos zones) operations
plus some underground feed that grades between 3g and 4g. The company spent considerable
cash overhauling its open pit ops and both grades and strip rate have improved considerably
since the worst quarters back in 2020.
Here are the two charts for Los Filos and you’ll see the same two charts for each EQX mine:
EQX Los Filos: Gold production, per qtr
That recent 40k/qtr production schedule is expected to continue in 2023 and we even have it
improving slightly as the year runs out, our forecast if for a total of 170,000oz this year though
costs isn’t likely to drop much and there’s a $40m sustaining capital budget to deploy. We
forecast AISC around U$1,800/oz, leaving margins rather thin.
2) Aurizona: EQX has several mines in Brazil and this is its biggest of the bunch, a
combination open pit U/G operation in the North East of the country. The IKN estimated
production for 2023 at 122,000, at the lower end of the company own guidance of 120k/130k.
Production is down from its better years of 2020/21, we expect that to continue as Aurizona
goes through a transition year and spends around $45m on sustaining capital projects,
particularly waste strip to prepare the mine for leaner operations in future years. We expect
costs to remain around the recent quarters and estimate AISC at $1.500/oz for the rest of the
year.
4
7169 19671 03571
51631
74492 97072 73823
33745
65883 34713 12132 30004 47593
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1
Oz Au EQX Los Filos: Cash costs
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500 1000
500
0
source: company filings
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1
U$/oz
Cash Costs/oz
AISC
source: company filings
EQX Aurizona: Gold production, per qtr
19023
06472
84233 83473 09223
03862
38543
85214
63922 41991 90752
01833
00852
45000
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1
Oz Au EQX Aurizona: Cash costs
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
source: company filings
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1
U$/oz
Cash Costs/oz
AISC
source: company filings

3) Mesquite: Located in California, Mesquite was Equinox’s first major purchase and set the
tone for the corporate policy of rolling up and into high cash cost open pit mine operations.
Since then the company has invested in this high tonnage low grade open pitter and got costs
under control, though the low production in 1q23 (seasonal) and sustaining capital works meant
AISC spiked higher. We don’t expect that to continue and for 2023, our 85,000 oz forecast
represents a likely return to its previous production clip and is smack in the middle of the EQX
guidance, of 80k/90k for the year. Meanwhile, costs should stay under control and we estimate
AISC at U$1,500/oz, slightly higher than the top end of the corporate guidance. That’s okay, it
still makes for good margins at $2k/oz spot.
4) Fazenda: The second EQX Brazil operation on our list, Fazenda churns out regular 15koz
quarters and at a competitive AISC of around U$1,200/oz to U$1,300/oz. We expect these
quarters to continue in 2023 and 2024, for that matter. A small-ish operation perhaps but a nice
little moneyspinner for the company.
Fazenda: Gold production, per qtr
5) RDM: I’ve followed the fate of the Riacho dos Machados mine in Minas Gerais ever since it
belonged to Carpathian way back when, it’s a difficult asset and to 2022, EQX had done a good
job in turning it around. Then came regulatory issues when permitting delays for a tailings
facility raise meant that operations had to be suspended for an extended period. EQX believes it
can get RDM back up to speed this year and while Q1 was another sub-standard quarter with
high costs, its current corporate guidance of 50k/60k oz Au isn’t impossible and our house
assumption is that RDM gets to the bottom end of that range, with production stacked to the
second half of the year. As for cash costs, the corporate AISC estimate is for up to $1,870 per
oz and that’s where we’re pitching for the sake of conservatism, though there’s every chance it
comes in lower.
5
4434 45931 81151 69181 47171 03131 89551 99441 14741 26331 43271
40302
58651 00551 00551 00551
22000
20000
18000
16000
14000
12000
10000 8000
6000
4000
2000
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 tse32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
Oz Au EQX Fazenda: Cash costs
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
source: company filings, IKN ests
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1
EQX: Mesquite: Gold production, per qtr
U$/oz Cash Costs/oz
AISC
source: company filings
12304 24863 78693 42013 71733 74132 58142 46232
07866
05071 51543 35944 74472 50461
80000
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000 20000
10000
0
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1
EQX Mesquite: Cash costs
Oz Au 2200
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800 600
400
200
0
source: company filings
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1
U$/oz
Cash Costs/oz
AISC
source: company filings
EQX RDM: Cash costs
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1
U$/oz
EQX RDM: Gold production, per qtr
Cash Costs/oz
AISC
source: company filings
0073 87591 80081 86081 89451 98041 08851 26331
0617 6856
12301
1708 2436
22000
20000
18000
16000
14000
12000 10000 8000
6000 4000
2000
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1
Oz Au
source: company filings

6) Santa Luz: This is EQX’s newest mine and while it now has five quarters of production
under its belt, the ramp-up has been glitchy and the mill has suffered from lower than expected
recoveries to date. We’re pitching our forecast at 62,000 oz for 2023, that’s the low end of the
EQX guidance and there’s a chance our forecast could be left for dead if the mine gets into
gear. Its built and expected to run at up to 100,000 oz per year and so far, it’s only managed
60% of that boilerplate. Equally, our model assumes a high AISC of U$1,900/oz for the year,
though improving in the second half of 2023.
U$/oz EQX Santa Luz: Cash costs
EQX Santa Luz: Gold production, per qtr
3000 Cash Costs/oz
AISC
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
4q21 1q22 2q22 3q22 4q22 1q23
source: company filings
7) Castle Mountain: The last on our list, Castle these days is a small operation but there’s still
plenty of resource and EQX now has a project study to expand the mine again and create a
large scale operation from the current…in return for capex and time. But for 2023 we’ll continue
with low production at a high cash cost and our forecast is for 26,000oz and change, inside the
company guidance 25k/30k, with AISC at a high U$1,900/oz as EQX makes initial investments
for Castle’s eventual re-expansion. It’s being run at approximate breakeven in 2023 as the
company looks to the longer-term future.
That’s the brief round-up of the working assets done, now to update on the big catalyst project:
Greenstone construction update
As for Greenstone, things continue on track and the continued good news from this project was
the highlight of the 1q23 quarter in the published literature, the earnings ConfCall and the Ross
Beaty-led webinar on the same day. We all know the cost environment for capital projects is
difficult at the moment, but Greenstone reportedly remains on time and on budget. That means
its expected ticket price of U$1.225Bn and a first pour in 2q24, with commissioning up to speed
by 2025. At that point, this 60%/40% JV (operator EQX and Orion) should be good for 400,000
oz gold per year and while the declared U$850/oz AISC is probably a thing of the past, we
should still get in at or around U$1,000/oz AISC and that means Greenstone is set to become a
serious moneyspinner for EQX as from 2024 (and for many years after).
Be in no doubt, the main reason to like EQX at today’s prices is Greenstone. In a world where
new projects are hyped too often, this truly is a transformation asset and will change EQX, its
cost and production base and its audience, once and for all.
6
012
1555
48171
08641 58441
Oz Au
20000
18000
16000
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
1q22 2q22 3q22 4q22 1q23
source: company filings
EQX: Castle Mountain gold production, per qtr U$/oz EQX Castle Mountain: Cash costs
2500
Cash Costs/oz
AISC
2000
1500
1000
500
0
3q20 4q20 1q21 2q21 3q21 4q21 1q22 2q22 3q22 4q22 1q23
source: company filings
8335
2192
8216
3787 7538
1325
9776
3905
4216
5544
Oz Au
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
4q20 1q21 2q21 3q21 4q21 1q22 2q22 3q22 4q22 1q23
source: company filings

And that wraps up the asset overview, we’re not going to go down the minor roads at EQX such
as Sandbox, its recent deals such as Mercedes, its recent share dealings such as the sale of
Solaris stock. We’re trying to remain on-point and focused on the value drivers, so it’s time to
consider the corporate level production, potential cash flows and whether its balance sheet with
get to the other side of Greenstone in good shape. We start here:
Consolidating the mine production forecasts
Please consider this table, that uses the same colour code for the individual mines above and
adds the quarterly totals together, to date. We also add in the production seen from Pilar
before EQX sold that property in late 2020:
Oz Au EQX: Consolidated Production, per qtr
220000
Los Filos Mesquite
200000 Aurizona Fazenda
180000 RDM Castle Mtn
source: company filings
160000 Santa Luz Pilar
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
4q19 1q20 2q20 3q20 4q20 1q21 2q21 3q21 4q21 1q22 2q22 3q22 4q22 1q23
Aside the blowout quarter of 4q21 when both Mesquite and Los Filos returned out-sized
production quarters, EQX has been a steady producer and in 2022 the increase, thanks mostly
to the new Santa Luz mine. Then came 1q23 and the total of 122,746oz production, lower than
my house forecast in IKN728 and one of the data points that made me doubt my previous
bullish outlook. However and after due consideration of the working parts at EQX, the low 1q23
number now strikes me as an anomaly and 2023 is about to get better. This next chart is the
same data as above, but we only give the last five quarters of results and then add on our
forecasts for each mine in the three quarters of 2023 remaining.
Oz Au EQX: Consolidated Production, per qtr
220000 Los Filos Mesquite
source: company filings
200000 Aurizona Fazenda
180000 RDM Castle Mtn
160000 Santa Luz Pilar
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
1q22 2q22 3q22 4q22 1q23 2q23est 3q23est 4q23est
Our overall forecast tallies closely with that of the company, which
EQX: 2023 production % by qtr
expects 45% of 2023 production in the first half of the year, 55% in
the second half. We get 44.72% and 55.28% (pie chart right). That
ramp in production will please the market (assuming it happens) and
1q23;
4q23;
will add to the leverage trade EQX already represents. Gold at 28.51 21.27
U$2,000/oz make this company an interesting proposition, even if its
overall margin to AISC isn’t in the Barrick or Newmont range.
2q23;
Consolidated, those production numbers add up to the chart below
23.45
3q23;
left. Meanwhile and below right, here’s our first look at what we
26.77
could expect from EQX in 2024 and beyond as Greenstone ramps up
7

and gets to full operational capacity. While 2024 should see some benefit for EQX in the second
half of the year as Greenstone commissions, if we assume the mine gets to full tilt by 2q25 and
then runs on rails we will see EQX change into an 850,000 oz machine. What’s more…
EQX: Consolidated gold production, per qtr
…its costs parameters improve considerably. Below left the quarterly AISC tracker, including our
forecasts for the rest of 2023. Below right we see how Greenstone brings big changes to the
overall costs horizon at EQX in years to come:
Overall we expect 2023 AISC at U$1,650/oz, by no means the most competitive in the sector
but that’s what makes EQX a potential trade as gold trades around (or above) the U$2,000/oz
level. Indeed, it may not come as a big surprise but a simple calculation of Received Gold Price
minus AISC gives us a reasonably accurate gauge of profitability at EQX, as seen in this
quarterly tracking chart to 1q23:
U$m EQX: Calc margin (Received Au price X production) vs Mine Op Earnings, per qtr
120
110
100
90 Calc margin
80
Mine Op Earnings
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10 4q19 1q20 2q20 3q20 4q20 1q21 2q21 3q21 4q21 1q22 2q22 3q22 4q22 1q23
source: company filings, IKN calcs
Mine Operating Earnings per quarter averages a little under $5m less per quarter than our
“easy hack” calculation and with only a few exceptions, the relationship remains tight. So by
running the same type of hack calculation and assuming Greenstone goes as per our
expectations, here’s the type of annual cash flow we can expect from the EQX in future years
8
67108 15988 610721 768421 253631 332921 656221 857931
234012
254711 318021 516341 934051 647221 592531 005451 005461
220000
200000
180000
160000
140000
120000
100000 80000 60000
40000
20000
0
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 tse32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
Oz Au EQX: Annual gold production and forecasts
source: company filings, IKN ests
710102 681774 011206 913235 140775 000066
000028 000058
Oz Au
900000
800000
700000
600000
500000
400000 300000
200000
100000
0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023e 2024e 2025e 2026e
source: company filings, IKN ests
EQX: AISC
658 869 009 7701 6801 2841 2831 7231 8521 7751 7561 9471 3251 8561 0371 0061 0051
2000
1500
1000 500
0
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 tse32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
U$/oz Au EQX: AISC per year
source: company filings, IKN ests
929 5201 7431 2261 0561 0061 0041 0041
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800 600 400
200
0
9102 0202 1202 2202 e3202 e4202 e5202 e6202
U$/oz Au
source: company filings, IKN ests

as the company becomes an 850,000oz/year producer assuming gold remains at U$2,000/oz
for the indefinite future:
EQX: ANNUAL FORECAST Calc margin (Received Au price X
production) vs Mine Op Earnings, per qtr
9
9.38
6.882
6.032
58
571
032
044 054
U$m
600
550
500 Calc margin
450
400 Mine Op Earnings
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023e 2024e 2025e 2026e
source: company filings, IKN calcs
And yes, a few U$400m mine margin years will make mincemeat of its current debt position.
This brings us the balance sheet items and with 1q23 added, the liquidity has remained in good
shape at the company even as EQX pays its pro-rata 60% of the $1.225m for Greenstone.
EQX: Assets
Our charts assume EQX does not draw down on the U$127.2m available to the company as the
undrawn part of its current revolving loan facility.
That’s because cash flow from operations will be
good for around $160m this year at U$2,000/oz
gold and with a cash position of $284m as at end
1q23, there’s perhaps $350m available to the
company in the rest of this year to complete its
end of Greenstone. That compares with the
remaining budget spend of $429m as at end
March, with EQX’s 60% of that coming to
U$257m. In other words, EQX has enough on-
hand to build out Greenstone without making any
further use of its revolver, thanks to the new gold
price and our expected drop in average AISC as
the year progresses.
Which brings us to this chart:
96.096
1.0702 9.9702 7002 4.7202 3.0602
1.2782 7.5092 1.4082 8.4882 3.5103 2.2903 3.1023 6.9613 0323 0033
4500
4000
3500
3000 2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 tse32q2 tse32q3
U$m EQX: Liabilities Breakdown per qtr
2000
fixed 1800
other current
cash & eq 1600
1400
1200
1000 800
600
400
200
0
source: EQX filings
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 tse32q2 tse32q3
U$m LT liab
current liab
source: company filings
800 EQX: Working Capital per qtr
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 tse32q2 tse32q3
source company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
EQX: Book Value per share (USD)
55.3
66.5 96.5 07.5 89.5 91.6
28.7 57.7 85.8 43.8 78.7 55.7 66.7 46.7
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1
P/BV
source: TSX, EQX filings

In IKN728 I’d estimated the new price/book per share would come in at U$7.53, in fact I was a
way off and the number was U$7.64, thanks mostly to the funds added to the pot by the sale
of SLS shares and I-80 shares. That values the stock higher and with Greenstone still on track
and the likelihood of a success move into the 2024 growth rising in confidence, there’s every
reason to suppose the house theory of EQX re-taking the 1.0X book level again will happen. It
also gives credence to the continued rally in the stock and while EQX was in the mix and not
immune to the selling of last Thursday and Friday, its U$5.34 share price still looks remarkably
cheap for a stock that will only continue to add asset value as the final stages of the
Greenstone build-out happen. Then when the improved margins from Greenstone move EQX
away from the higher levels of cash costs, its intrinsic asset value will improve and will be able
to command the normal type of multiple run by miners, 1.5X or so.
 At 1.0X book, EQX has 43% upside from this weekend’s share price
 At 1.5X book, EQX has 114.6% upside from this weekend’s share price.
Both those targets are in reach, assuming of course that gold stays the course and remains
at/around U$2,000/oz and EQX commissions
EQX: Shares Out
Greenstone in good style. At this weekend’s
share count of 312.32m shares out, EQX is a
U$1.67Bn entity and as its U$832m in financial
debt is paid down, that equity value should run
straight to the share price, let alone the
improved goodwill from a large-scale working
mine in Canada that gets successfully started.
Clearly the risk remains Greenstone and its
execution for the next 12 months but unlike
other projects (Magino, Kiena etc) the
jungledrums remain good and there’s rising
expectations of success around the project.
So as from next week I am going to add EQX to the IKN Weekly watch list. I’m not a buyer
immediately because 1) I don’t have much spare money yet (CKG sales were small and I
haven’t sold any copper stocks to date) 2) there may be a buying opportunity if the market
continues to get dragged down by the newly negative sentiment. The current price is great, but
if there’s super-great on potential offer in the near-term, I see good reason to wait a while and
it wouldn’t take a massive drop in the price of gold to hit EQX hard and see the share price
suffer from the other side of the leverage argument, just U$1,900/oz would be enough to send
the stock back into the U$4s. So for both practical and market speculative reasons I’m going to
wait a while longer before buying in, but with that said EQX offers great value at these
depressed levels and with Greenstone now coming into view, its current operations should
generate enough cash to finish the company-transformer project on time and budget.
10
34.011 95.011 90.311 4.311 54.311
2.612
87.932 78.142 53.242 48.242
54.003 36.003 33.103 22.303 98.303 60.503 73.703
23.213 400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1
source: company filings
serahs
fo
snoillim

Stocks to Follow
The moderate weakness in gold and the clear weakness in most other metals, copper included,
means that mining companies of all shapes and sizes had a tough week. Same here of the
Stocks to Follow list, even though we managed to get some relief from five week-over-week
winners (ARG.to, QCCU.v, ERIO.v, MIRL.cse, CTGO), a list that includes a stalwart performance
from our largest copper trade, Amerigo. Grateful for small mercies. There were two unchanged
on the week (ALDE.v, RUG.v) and that means eleven losers and plenty of those were big
double-figure hits so here’s a list of pain, as we do not shirk away from advertising losses:
 Goldshore Resources (GSHR.v) down 25.4%
 Newcore Gold (NCAU.v) down 20.5%
 Chesapeake Gold (CKG.v) down 18.9%
 Mene Inc (MENE.v) down 11.8%
 AbraSilver (ABRA.v) down 10.4%
 ATAC Resources (ATC.v) down 10.0%
Of those, we sold CKG due to its Mexico land permits news as seen last weekend and while the
price sucked, it’s now tied off. The one that hurts the most is Newcore (NCAU.v) and there are
notes on that below, it may be stupid cheap all of a sudden but the lack of buyers is
concerning. ABRA is back in the red and a financial thorn in the side, but at some point I shrug
and remember it’s a silver trade and you know the risks before buying. MENE is long-term and I
may try to pick up a few at this new price in the days ahead, the other two are on the watchlist.
With the sale of CKG we’re down to 17 open positions with 13 of them owned personally, three
below the self-imposed maximum. Eight are in the green, nine are in the red.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.355 69.0% $0.75 first tgt, #1 idea
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Amerigo Res ARG.to STR BUY C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.52 11.8% Main Cu trade, top fundies
SolGold SOLG.to STR BUY C$0.265 19-Feb-23 C$0.295 11.3% Cu in Ecuador, M&A tgt
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v SPEC BUY C$0.265 25-Apr-21 C$0.16 -39.6% MRE now due 2q23, annoying
Faraday Copper FDY.to BUY C$0.79 26-Mar-23 C$0.85 7.6% Latest Cu exploreco, IKN723
AbraSilver Res. ABRA.v BUY C$0.36 4-Dec-22 C$0.345 -4.2% added for last time Mar'23
Western Explor. WEX.v BUY C$1.87 9-Apr-23 C$1.65 -11.8% new trade, Au spec in NV USA
Newcore Gold NCAU.v BUY C$0.205 23-Oct-22 C$0.155 -24.4% MRE better than it looked.
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v SPEC BUY C$0.83 22-Apr-18 C$0.195 -76.5% Cheap on permit probs, appeal
SPECULATIVE TRADES
Orefinders ORX.v.v SPEC BUY C$0.04 20-Nov-22 C$0.035 -12.5% build position at 4c
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v BUY C$0.72 16-May-21 C$0.74 2.8% drill assays now coming
Minera IRL MIRL.cse avoid C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.04 -79.5% run into ground byCEO, AVOID
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
ATAC Res ATC.v WATCH C$0.095 11-Sep-22 C$0.135 42.1% Cheap Yukon neighbour play
Rugby Resources RUG.v WATCH C$0.06 26-Mar-23 C$0.055 -8.3% new on watchlist, Cu in Col
Goldshore Res GSHR.v WATCH C$0.165 26-Mar-23 C$0.235 41.9% return to list, possible flip
Contango Ore CTGO WATCH U$23.25 2-Dec-22 U$30.00 29.0% Manh Choh finance happening
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.63 6-Dec-20 C$0.30 -52.4% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2023 date closed close price
Altiplano Metals APN.v jan'23 C$0.31 17-Sep-21 C$0.17 -45.2% delayed and will dilute soon
Western Copper WRN.to mar'23 C$2.02 13-Nov-22 C$2.32 14.9% sold on reduced M&A prob.
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v may'23 C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$1.75 -43.0% Closing on legal action news
2015 to 2022 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
11

Now for notes on some of the covered companies:
Chesapeake Gold (CKG.v): POSITION CLOSED. Just two weekends ago, CKG had rallied to
$2.70 (admittedly on its normal low volume) and I started to dream a little dream of this
position getting its long-dreamed of leverage to the gold contained at Metates. Then this
happened:
The flurry of selling on Tuesday included this desk that afternoon, after seeing the stock sink
along with another small dream of getting out at above $2.00. But cauterize I did and that
brings this sorry tale to an end. It’s one thing to show patience while management strings you
along and extends timelines on key met testing, another thing altogether when they fall foul of
the Mexican authorities. I’d like to say that I’ve learned my lesson, but…
Western Exploration (WEX.v): The financing news is with us and here’s how the company
put it to the world (2):
“…private placement offering of up to 3,646,000 units (the "Units") at a price of $1.55
per Unit for gross proceeds of up to $5,651,300”
The units include a share and a half warrant priced at $2.15 with a 36 month shelf life. The 7%
commish to brokers will be covered by brokers’ warrants at the same terms. The placement is
expected to close on June 1st and from what I’ve picked up, it’s been a popular offering.
I was expecting the unit price to be slightly higher but as noted last week, didn’t have solid intel
on that so when the $1.55 price was announced it
didn’t come as a massive surprise. And let it be
said, while I got a couple of mails from you people
worried about the low price I am 100% good about
this raising; in fact, the lower the better (up to a
point) and this is fine by me. It will guarantee
plenty of appetite and it wouldn’t surprise much to
hear about a upsizing of the deal in the days ahead.
This ten-day chart shows how the news shook a
few shares into the open market, but it’s still a tight
one and not easy to buy.
Within a margin of error, the opportunity WEX
offers is now out of the starting blocks and starting to show its plan.
Minera Alamos (MAI.v): Our main note last week
“Minera Alamos (MAI.v) 4q23 financials and
guidance” laid it out, MAI proceeded to trade with
the market median and while it’s a pain to see it
down at its recent lows again, it’s understandable
considering the near-term backdrop.
If I were to repeat just one part of last week’s note,
12

it would be that the MAI investment thesis is still 100% intact. Santana has been glitchy yes,
but it will get straight (it’s a heapleacher, it will run on rails eventually) and while production
hasn’t ramped to potential yet, we’ve had a clear look into the operation’s fat gross margins
and Cerro de Oro is now on its active development track, as from last month. The cream will
rise to the top, there’s true wealth to be created here, not a pipe dream.
QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v): A decent week considering the backdrop for copper stocks and
a penny added, with a buyer showing up on Friday to accumulate at 16c. On seeing this action
I checked in with CEO Stewart to see whether we’re about to get the MRE and the answer was
“no”, this move wasn’t pre-NR rumourmill and we’ll have a few weeks before the number is
ready. They said “by end Q2”, so by end Q2 they have.
Goldshore Resources (GSHR.v): On Monday and
as per the market jungledrums, GSHR delivered its
updated MRE with a 43-101 compliant headline
number of 6.00m oz gold. The market’s response
was…
…not great. The classic “buy rumour/sell news visual,
GSHR was sold down on the news and the selling
kept on coming. As we’ve pointed out on a few
occasions, the recent 17c placement came without
escrow and with 25c half-warrants, so all the prices
you see above are good ones for warrant clippers.
GSHR has a (bad?) habit of putting in volume spikes
and drops, we’ve just witnessed another one.
Newcore Gold (NCAU.v): Ugh this is truly horrid:
We know that NCAU’s treasury is running a little thin and our current model assumes they raise
around $5m during this quarter (chart right),
NCAU.v: Cash treasury per qtr
though that timing is obviously not up to me and it
may not happen until later in the year.
The way NCAU traded last week suggests the
company is going to market soon and from a
position of weakness and while volumes dropped
off by Friday and the lowest prices, there weren’t
any signs of bargain hunters, either. All in all, the
vision of disconsolation and I have to be frank, I’m
not on the market for any of these “cheapies” until
we get resolution on the 2023 funding, either.
AbraSilver Resource Corp (ABRA.v): Our only dedicated silver play got hit along with the
13
425.0 591.0
899.2 380.2
212.31
775.8
867.3
888.8
525.5
742.3
128.1
220.5
685.3
1
5
3 5.1
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 tse32q1 tse32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim

rest of the sector as the metal sold off last week. With ABRA we’ve been here before and
recently, too,
Aldebaran (ALDE.v): We got an assay NR out of Altar Thursday (3) that failed to provide
much upside, but to be fair it was enough to see ALDE tread water during a negative week for
copper and copper stocks. Your headline…
Aldebaran Intercepts 769.50 m of 0.55% CuEq, Including 366 m of 0.65% CuEq at
Altar Copper-Gold Project, San Juan Province, Argentina
…and here’s the drill table, including the headline hole ALD-224 and the “geologically
interesting” 226.
Regarding 226, that was drilled from the South of the target and had to get through more
barren rock to find the target area, but eventually didn’t hit much and allows ALDE an idea of
the limits to the deep mineralization. No hole is unwelcome when you’re building knowledge of
a deposit. Anyway, to the main event and as usual with a Black/Heather vehicle, plenty of good
drill visuals included in the NR such as this one,
which shows how hole 224 went into the guts of
the previously identified and drilled anomaly and hit
the same type of decent grades we saw in holes
221 and 223, thereby adding more data to the
company theory that’s now working out well.
For more on what it all means, perhaps it’s better to
listen to the experts and on that, the company is
running a webinar to discuss the latest results
tomorrow Monday May 15th, here’s the link (4) to
join in (I’ll be there), here’s the blurb from the
page:
Join Aldebaran Resources' CEO, John Black,
and Chief Geological Officer, Dr. Kevin B.
Heather, to review the company's latest news!
Ask questions live during the Q&A session to
discover the details that matter to you.
So now you know.
Orefinders (ORX.v): ORX continued its re-positioning last week by announcing the
appointment of a Chief Investment Officer, one Gary Brockelsby (5), an industry veteran with
ample experience on the securities and deal-making side of mining and the type of person who
can go out looking for deals and opportunities, leaving the C-suite team to get on with running
the company (or in the case of Ore Group, its suite of companies.
It was slightly ironic to see ORX trade down to 3.5c on a week that saw two of its larger
shareholdings make gains. QC Copper (QCCU.v) added a penny as seen above, while American
Eagle (AE.v) jumped from 10.5c to 15c week-over-week on the news that Teck (TCK.to) was
buying in as a strategic partner, giving that company funds to match its newly obtained 5 year
14

exploration permit for the main NAK project. But that’s the irony of juniors, sometimes.
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v): A small improvement in price on the
week, but no real volume and RIO.v isn’t doing much
more than bouncing around in a loose but defined trading
range.
The Copper Basket
After nineteen weeks of 2023, The Copper Basket shows a loss of 2.78% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Solaris Res SLS.to 6.44 114.56 729.75 6.37 -1.1%
2 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.22 88.028 345.95 3.93 22.0%
3 Western Copper WRN.to 2.41 151.597 339.58 2.24 -7.1%
4 Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to 1.92 105.96 175.89 1.66 -13.5%
5 Oroco Res OCO.v 0.91 213.438 170.75 0.80 -12.1%
6 Faraday Copper FDY.to 0.54 175.2 148.92 0.85 57.4%
7 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.78 153.96 113.93 0.74 -5.1%
8 Hot Chili HCH.v 0.78 119.455 107.51 0.90 15.4%
9 Regulus Res. REG.v 1.10 124.509 99.61 0.80 -27.3%
10 Pan Global Res PGZ.v 0.46 212.145 68.95 0.325 -29.3%
11 Kodiak Copper KDK.v 1.12 56.2 41.59 0.74 -33.9%
12 QC Copper QCCU.v 0.165 162.815 26.05 0.16 -3.0%
13 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.16 86.966 17.39 0.20 25.0%
14 Libero Copper LBC.v 0.155 93.869 10.33 0.11 -29.0%
15 Atacama Copper ACOP.v 0.16 34.373 5.50 0.16 0.0%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg -2.78%
A cheer for QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v), which saw a buyer move it up on a down day for the
sector Friday and once all was done, we had our
only winner of a tough week in the junior copper The Copper Basket 2023, weekly evolution
14%
space. Three others remained unchanged 12%
(ALDE.v, HCH.v, KDK.v) and that leaves eleven 10%
losers, including the biggest drops at and smallest 8%
6%
end of the pipe, namely Atacama (ACOP.v down
4%
20.0%), Libero (LBC.v down 18.5%) and Element 2%
29 (ECU.v down 9.1%). Most of the others were 0%
down 5% or and the uniformity of those drops -2%
-4%
was telling, this is money leaving the sub-sector.
We don’t have to look far for the reason behind
the equities weakness:
15
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41
source: IKN calcs

Copper lost the U$3.80/lb line and, as this desk feared, the mini-dump to U$3.70/lb happened
in the twinkling of an eye, all overnight Asia action on a spike in volume. The above chart
shows how copper on Thursday and Friday traded lower than at any point since its
November’22 rally. Not good and the manifestation of this desk’s concerns about Dr. Copper
these last couple of weeks. A second copper price chart this week zooms in on the last two
days when the line broke…
…and the small relief we can get from the bargain hunter buyers that were waiting at U$3.70,
though it looks as though some speculators were quick to close off trades before the close. And
with the blow-by-blow done, it’s time for my latest deer-in-headlights performance.
Thus conscience does make cowards of us all,
And thus the native hue of resolution
Is sicklied o’er with the pale cast of thought,
And enterprises of great pith and moment
With this regard their currents turn awry
And lose the name of action.
Hamlet, Act 3, Sc1, Soliloquy
First I quote myself and to underscore the lack of resolution (a fancy way of saying cowardice)
via two chunks of last week’s edition. This came as I wrapped up thoughts in The Copper
Basket IKN729, last weekend
“As long as copper retains its current trading range and doesn’t break down under U$3.80/lb, I
don’t think any emergency action on my various copper positions is necessary but, if copper
sinks, I’m not going to be holding a significant portion of my net wealth in copper juniors.”
This was one of the bullet points at the end of the edition:
“Still leery and somewhat undecided about the way copper is looking today. Medium
and long-term no worries, the near-term is the thing. I’ll remain on a watching brief as
long as it stays above U$3.80/lb and will wish it higher in the days to come, but that’s
about all I have today.”
Those echo thoughts from IKN728, such as this one:
16

“…the ultimate indicator is price and, when you see the world talking up copper for
sound and logical fundamental reasons, it pays to heed the market and its message
when the price continue to drop, no matter how “illogical” it might be.”
That’s more than enough self-quoting, it’s reeking of narcissism already. However, IKN728 also
had me stating that if U$3.80/lb were lost it would be “time to take action” but, after due
consideration, I’m going to let this market give me one more week’s worth of lessons before
making that proactive decision. Reasons:
1) I’d be selling equities in junior stocks, not copper. The selling last week looked knee-
jerk and shaking the weakest, most speculative hands out. Unless copper really drops
fast in the days to come, the juniors aren’t likely to deteriorate any further and they
may even rebound.
2) There was enough bargain hunting in the copper space on Friday to give me some
cheer (and Amerigo ending up a penny added a little more). We know supply remains
tight and China continues to talk down the metal, the market may consider this new
price an opportunity. There’s no doubting coppper’s medium or long-term prospects,
after all.
3) I’m chicken.
Therefore, I defer any proactive decision for one more week but, let it be said, I am fully aware
how exposed my portfolio is to The Good Doctor at the moment and at some point, like the
companies or not, I’ll have to trim sails and as things stand, this is the order that ballast will be
thrown over the side:
1) Faraday Copper (FDY.to): Last in, first out
2) Aldebaran (ALDE.v): I’d be first, but it’s too illiquid to trade easily
3) Amerigo (ARG.to) partial sale. As much as I like this company and its propsects, in the
event of a copper downdraft it won’t be immune and sales here would be my easiest
way to raise cash and lower Cu exposure. I could sell up to half position without too
much heartache.
4) QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v): unlikely until it delivers its expected major catalyst MRE
number in 2q23 (June?). After that we’ll see, but today May’23 I’d feel like I were
leaving too much upside to somebody else, no matter what copper-the-metal does.
If the weakness continues this coming week, I’ll have no choice no matter how wide the yellow
streak down my back is. We move on, time for the regular weekly copper inventories update,
data from Cochilco:
 An aggregate drawdown week for world copper stocks, with the total at 220,089 metric
tonnes (mt) this weekend, a drop of 10,334mt since IKN729. it was similar action to
last weekend, too, with SHFE down and LME up.
 At the SHFE, the seasonal drawdown is now happening on time and its warehouses saw
a net outflow of 16,536mt copper. That’s a lot, and brings the total to 118,383mt.
 Last week the LME added just under 6kmt, this time it was just over at 6,200mt copper
and once again mostly at its Asia warehouses. The total held in LME worldwide is now
76,625mt and 51kmt of that is in its Asia stores. Still tight, but not quite as tight as
April when the squeeze was on and funds were piling n long. Also out of curiosity, LME
cancelled warrants are down to just 225mt and I’ve never seen it that low, some sort of
disinterest record.
 Comex copper stocks remained unchanged again, at 25,081mt.
We’ll stay with just the one dedicated SHFE charts again, with the 16.5kmt coming out and
created a slight acceleration of the drawdown. We’re going to reach the 100k line soon, what
maters most is how the inventory levels perform after that as a normal year will see SHFE
stocks bottom out at 90kmt or 100kmt and stay at that level for the rest of the year. I have a
strong suspicion that 2023 is not a normal year.
17

SHFE copper inventory levels, 2018 to 2023
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
18
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
MT Cu 2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
source: Cochilco data
Now for a few notes on basket stocks:
Pan Global Resources (PGZ.v): I was going to write
on the PGX news this week, but its IR person Jason
Mercier did it for me. And before you read his words,
be aware that Jason and I have never met, but for
some reason or another he’s been a subscriber of The
IKN Weekly for over a decade but I didn’t even notice
he was now at PGZ until weeks after I’d included the
company in this year’s Copper Basket.
Please find attached a copy of the media release,
Pan Global Secures Surface Access to Explore a
680 Hectare Area West of the La Romana Copper-
Tin Discovery, distributed today pre-market. This is a
great achievement by the team in Spain, and one of the key catalysts that was set out
by management for investors to watch for in 2023. Next up for potential catalysts are
the results from the initial drilling on Romana West as well as the tin metallurgy test
work, expected in summer.
Note if you want more detail on the Escacena Project status, our most recent corporate
presentation has some refreshed material. For example, Slide 13 goes into a little more
colour on other things the team is working on in 2023 in preparation for a resource, and
potentially PEA, in 2024:
https://uploads-
ssl.webflow.com/63e904921eb4adc55bebeffb/64544c7d0b66ec3e3681edee_2023-
05_Pan%20Global%20Resources_Corporate%20Presentation_FINAL.pdf
To close out on a personal note, as a long-term subscriber to the weekly report, I
remain happy with the recommendations (RIO2 continues to hurt but hopefully will
persevere. Good recommendation, good people, good project, etc.) and you remain
one of the most honest in the space.
Thanks Jason, flattery will get you…quoted in the Weekly. Also. I agree that this week’s news
from the company was positive, but obviously under-appreciated by a difficult market.
Atacama Copper (ACOP.v): As expected, the news late
last week (see IKN729) that ACOP was raising a modest
$300k in a share placement priced at 18c saw the PPS
dump, but as this 12 month chart shows it wasn’t a disaster
and 20c to 16 is effectively the top of its range to the
bottom. So all fair enough, my only issue is that $300k isn’t
enough to last out the year and they’re going to need to run
another financing at some point.
Marimaca Copper (MARI.to): Down 8.4% on its usual

modest traded volumes (it rarely gets above 60k in a day but did so on Thursday), MARI
announced this (6):
Vancouver, British Columbia, May 8, 2023 – Marimaca Copper Corp. (“Marimaca
Copper” or the “Company”)
(TSX: MARI) announces changes to its executive management team with Petra
Decher stepping down from her role as the Company’s Chief Financial Officer, and the
appointment of José Antonio Merino as Managing Director, Chile and Interim CFO.
A.K.A. the “C-suite change nobody cares about”
though the incoming José Antonio Merino comes from
SQM at its corp dev desk and with the whole lithium
sector in Chile in flux, that’s an interesting sidebar.
He’s taking on CFO duties until a permanent
replacement is found as well. In trading, MARI
dropped back under $4.00 again, it’s been hard for the
stock to stay above that line for the last few years
(aide that rush to over $5 in early 2021, when it
traded above $4 for several months). This chart
doesn’t have the MARI prices, instead we go with a
comparative to spot copper (HG00) to show the close
correlation between the two lines, as well as the divergence since April. Something has to
change for that to get back into kilter, either copper rebounds or MARI revisits the low $3.00s
again. I hope it’s the former, even though MARI at $3.00 would be a bargain price for a
company I like and a stock I do not own.
The Producer Basket
After 19 weeks of 2023, the Producer Basket shows a gain of 17.12% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 47.20 799 36.71 45.94 -2.7%
2 Barrick GOLD 17.18 1761.54 33.79 19.18 11.6%
3 Agnico Eagle AEM 51.99 488.9 27.75 56.75 9.2%
4 Wheaton PM WPM 39.08 451.963 22.76 50.35 28.8%
5 Kinross Gold KGC 4.09 1256.1 6.66 5.30 29.6%
6 Alamos Gold AGI 10.11 393.1 5.23 13.31 31.7%
7 B2Gold BTG 3.57 1074.567 4.42 4.11 15.1%
8 Hecla Mining GFI 5.56 610.491 3.25 5.33 -4.1%
9 Eldorado Gold EGO 8.36 185.73 2.09 11.24 34.4%
10 Wesdome Gold WDOFF 5.53 147.526 0.96 6.50 17.5%
All prices and stock quotes in U$ Port. avg 17.12%
Even though all ten of our 2023 Producer Basket stocks were negative on the week, we did
decidedly less worse than the GDX benchmark for once and, as a result, the gap is down to the
lowest it’s been all year and we trail by just 0.12%. The GDX suffered from the higher
weighting of the big boy stocks Newmont, Barrick, Agnico etc, while our list managed to benefit
from the comparatively better week put in by B2Gold (BTG down just 0.2%), Kinross (KGC
down just 0.4%) etc. The only black mark on our list was the 12.1% dropped by Hecla (HL) on
a lacklustre quarterly report, more on that below.
The 2023 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
comparative to GDX control
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
19
0%
-5%
-10%
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41
The 2023 Producer Basket: Percentage difference
between GDX benchmark & basket (negative = IKN ahead)
4.0%
3.5%
ikn 3.0%
gdx control 2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
source: NYSE, IKN calcs ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41
source: IKN calcs, NYSE data

Newmont and Newcrest (NEM) (NCM) Episode 659: Is there an issue? Doubt it, but on
Friday Newcrest (NCM) agreed to give Newmont (NEM) one more week to finish its dataroom
DD and come up with its binding offer, here are the bits that matter from the NR (7):
On 14 April 2023, Newcrest announced that it had granted Newmont exclusivity until
11:59pm on 11 May 2023 to allow Newmont to conduct confirmatory due diligence on
an exclusive basis.
Newmont has substantially completed due diligence and Newcrest has agreed to
extend Newmont’s exclusivity until 11:59pm on 18 May 2023 on the same terms as
previously announced, to provide further time for Newmont to complete its due
diligence and submit a binding offer.
There is no certainty that the Revised Proposal will result in a binding offer for
consideration by shareholders.
The stocks traded lockstep on the week (i.e. down badly and in-line with GDX) and the news
would have raised one eyebrow among interested parties without causing too much concern. A
further delay on the 18th would be quite a different matter, however. PS: Note NEM is having a
poor 2023, lagging the field and back in the red YTD.
Activist critics of the deal need look no further for grist for their mills.
Hecla Mining Company (HL): Why didn’t the market like the HL quarter? There was nothing
wrong with gross metals sales, propped slightly by the base metals (Pb, Zn) but silver and gold
were in-line.
U$m HL: Gross sales by metal
silver gold base
240
220
200 40.1 45.1 52.3
180 46.1 48.4 52.5 54.7 58.3
33.9 55.0 55.2
160
140 23.7 86.1 44.1
98.5 101.4
120 77.8 70.4 75.1
100 89.2 95.0 79.6 77.2 82.0
80 90.7 69.3
60
40 61.8 79.7 81.2 77.8 92.8 61.9 61.2 66.3 70.1 82.7 81.5
20 37.6 45.9
0
1q20 2q20 3q20 4q20 1q21 2q21 3q21 4q21 1q22 2q22 3q22 4q22 1q23
source: company filings
Those gross metal values came to $198.991m in sales once the smelters were paid and that’s
fine, but direct mining COGS remained higher than expected and that’s what ate into the
bottom line, more than anything else.
20

HL: Sales and costs
21
529.631 989.151 553.661 408.551 307.991 881.361 98.881 419.351 258.012 328.961 389.712 148.881 65.391 231.202 870.581 752.361 994.681 147.171 242.191 35.381 933.641 897.171 253.491 472.402 199.891 749.391
U$m
total sales
240 total costs
220
200
180
160
140
120 100
80
60
40
20
0
1q20 2q20 3q20 4q20 1q21 2q21 3q21 4q21 1q22 2q22 3q22 4q22 1q23
source: company filings
HL: Costs breakdown, per qtr
788.58 358.29 520.301 898.001 283.69 23.011 245.211 536.89 277.501 709.511 9.401
232.231
55.521
U$m other
Expl & pre dev
220 G&A
200 DD&A
COGS
180
160
140
120
100
80 60
40
20
0
1q20 2q20 3q20 4q20 1q21 2q21 3q21 4q21 1q22 2q22 3q22 4q22 1q23
source: company filings
Not quite as heavy as 4q22 and that preceding quarter’s one-time expenses, but it means 1q23
becomes the fifth straight quarter in a row to return a net loss when the world expected better
from HL.
U$m HL: Gross margin, income from ops, net profit
gross profit
80
income from ops
70 pre tax income
60 net income
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40 source: company filings
1q20 2q20 3q20 4q20 1q21 2q21 3q21 4q21 1q22 2q22 3q22 4q22 1q23
So what’s the issue? Aside from the bad timing of an earnings report that hit at the same time
as the silver price droop, HL’s share price probably
got ahead of itself somewhat compared to its
financial delivery. Here’s its 12 month price chart and
until last week it was up around 35% YoY, compared
to around +10% for the GDX. The selling we saw
last week took the edge of those gains and there was
a feeling of “back to the drawing board”, HL didn’t
truly disappoint but neither did it file a sparkling set
of financials. The silver dump did the rest.

In the ConfCall HL remained bullish on the second half of 2023 and to its credit, hasn’t ever
hidden how its expects its 2023 guidance to be back-end heavy. All eyes on spot silver, but HL
may end up rallying if it can deliver in Q3 and Q4. One to watch for value (which is why it made
the 2023 Producer Basket, after all).
Wesdome Gold (WDOFF): Last weekend we were applauding its +9.5% move on the
previous week and looking forward to its 1q23 financials dropping on Wednesday, stating that,
“…if Wesdome can confirm its revised timeline on Kiena and show improvement in its weakened
balance sheet, there may still be a trade at these prices.”
As this chart (right) shows, the world decided to place a
few bets on WDO into its earnings announcement, then
feel rather disappointed by what was basically an “in-line”
set of numbers and a ConfCall that largely reiterated the
expected timeline for Kiena completion and accessing its
deeper-laying high grade material. The disappointment
probably came from the way management adroitly avoided
adding to the certainty of the timeline at Kiena and made
sure they left themselves regulatory wriggle room if they
hit delays again. There was nothing untoward in what they
said, it was more what wasn’t said than what was and the
lack of any extra conviction signalled was enough to see the stock sell down. But then the
market settled, the early sellers on Thursday were seen as panickers and buyers moved in to
close WDO at near UNCH over the last two weeks. It was a better performance than the GDX,
you will note.
As for the numbers, the key cash position is okay but thanks to the efforts to reduce its current
liabilities, the working cap result was better than I expected.
80 WDO.to: Working Capital per qtr
70
60
50
40
30
20 10 0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
WDO’s costs were slightly higher than anticipated, but mostly due to non-cash depreciation and
clearly they are concerned about propping up the balance sheet and getting out of the negative
zone as quickly as possible. In my preview I’d been concerned WDO would stay working cap
negative for the year. While big cheques to finish Kiena are a big part of the mix and we don’t
know exactly when they will drop, things have clearly improved and WDO is likely get out of
working cap jail within two quarters. Regarding money coming in, the company also had this to
say about its ATM share sales program:
During the three months ended March 31, 2023, the Company issued 2,987,500
common shares under the ATM Program for gross proceeds of $20,990,000 with
aggregate costs of $930,000. Since inception, the Company has raised $34,070,000 of
gross proceeds by issuing 4,581,400 common shares at an average price of $7.44 per
share with aggregate costs of $1,402,000.
We were also told that since end 1q23 WDO hadn’t sold any more ATM shares to market and
the count remains the same as at May 10th. Those sold shares are the real world difference with
what we see in the cash till today, hindsight says they had to do it and so far, it the moderate
dilution hasn’t made for much of a headwind. Overall a reasonable quarter from WDO and
22
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 tse32q2 tse32q3
source company filings
srallod
fo snoillim
WDO.to: Cash treasury per qtr
893.94 337.66 315.37 84.36 488.36 997.76 374.96 467.65 274.25
615.32 147.42
581.33
60.52
80
70
60
50
40 30
20
10
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1
source: company filings
DAC
fo snoillim

those of you who trust this company to deliver a fully functioning Kiena in the timeline they
have now promised (2024 is a go) may well want to buy now while the shares are still
discounted due to doubt. But I’m going to say it; at the moment, I like EQX more.
The TinyCaps List
After 19 weeks of 2023, the TinyCaps show a gain of 27.98% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Aurelius Min AUL.v 0.07 49.787 1.00 0.02 -71.4%
Coast Copper COCO.v 0.045 64.001 2.88 0.045 0.0%
District Metals DMX.v 0.075 86.891 9.12 0.105 40.0%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.13 69.962 11.89 0.17 30.8%
Manitou Gold MTU.v 0.02 344.568 20.67 0.06 200.0%
Nine Mile Metals NINE.cse 0.29 57.025 14.26 0.25 -13.8%
Palamina Corp PA.v 0.08 65.285 9.14 0.14 75.0%
Precipitate Gold PRG.v 0.075 130.367 7.82 0.06 -20.0%
South Star STS.v 0.55 32.755 18.02 0.55 0.0%
Viva Gold VAU.v 0.14 91.608 17.86 0.195 39.3%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 27.98%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $20m. They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a
little and allowed sub-U$20m market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, but it was a particularly depressing exercise to trawl through the whole of the TSXV and find companies
that are small enough, but with life in them. The vast majority of sub-$20m stocks are broken stocks, either
traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2023. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
Three of our ten stocks went higher on the week (LMS.v, STS.v, VAU.v) including the biggest
winner South Star (STS.v up 17.0%). One remained
TinyCaps, 2023 weekly tracker
unchanged (DMX.v) which means six losers, including 50%
the biggest percentage drops in Aurelius (AUL.v down 45%
40%
20.0% which is just half a cent these days, the damage 35%
is well and truly done), Palamina (PA.v down 17.7%) 30%
25%
and Precipitate (PRG.v down a penny, or 14.3% if you 20%
prefer). The general trend was to the downside, most 15%
10%
stocks lost a penny or half a cent, there wasn’t much 5%
liquidity or wholesale dumpage going on but it was 0%
enough to drop our basket average back under 30%.
South Star Battery Metals (STS.v): There was no news
and no filings on SEDAR, but STS suddenly woke up on
Friday when just under 150k shares changed hands in a
quick flurry that shows the illiquid nature of this stock (and
what happens to many a tinycap when somebody decides
they want in, even at a moderate size).
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended
tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with market caps of under $20m
23
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam ht41
source: IKN calcs, TSX data

offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future I may buy shares in one or
several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
Chile: Fall out from last weekend’s Constitutional assembly
The Constitutional assembly vote result in Chile made last week’s edition, IKN729, but only
because I was lazy and slow and the big news, that the Far Right had taken control of the
process to draw up the draft Constitution, came out on Monday. So see last week’s edition for
the baseline news, here we report on the fall-out since then and the way Chile has digested the
news and Boric is indeed the biggest loser: It was the obvious read last week and there’s near-
unanimous agreement between Chile’s political talking head brigade. Also and as expected, bad
blood is already rising against him from his own Left wing base, they see his decision to allow
the vote in the format we saw as a massive own goal. They’re right, it was.
Meanwhile, José Antonio Kast is the big winner and that means we’re going to see the centre of
gravity move to the right in Chilean politics. However, as Kast clearly has eyes on the Big Job
and the presidential election at the end of 2025, the smarter analysts have mentioned how the
Constitutional process between now and the scheduled December 2023 referendum vote isn’t
likely to create a radically right wing draft. Instead, Kast is expected to box clever, demand
specific social instances (e.g. abortion to remain illegal in the country, a tightening of
immigration laws) rather than messing with the economics levers of power. The task of his
party, which enjoys a veto-proof majority in association with the traditional right wing, is to
offer Chile a moderately altered Constitution that improves specific aspects without making big
waves, i.e. a draft that’s likely to be voted up by the populace (his far right party only got 35%
of the votes, after all). A successful referendum result would make him a 100% lock as
candidate on the right of the political spectrum for the next Presidential election and red hot
favourite to win against whoever the left, with its reputation now in shreds, offers up.
While industry, economy and therefore mining are important subjects in the country (and the
most important for us, the FDI-watcher on the outside), Chile’s political drivers for the rest of
2023 are likely to become internal matters with the biggest issues currently the crime rate, the
rise of narcotrafficking groups and immigration. The good news for us is that these more insular
issues have taken over from the Left’s green enviro agenda and the Right is in no doubt that
the solution to Chile’s social issues is to provide more and better jobs.
Bottom line: The earthquake caused by last week’s vote now gets its aftershocks but the events
up to the next big date, the referendum on whatever the new right-wing controlled
Constitutional Assembly, will likely carry on without much comment on these pages. Because
mining. However, be in no doubt that our original take on last week’s result, that Boric is now a
classic lame duck President, is still valid and his government will have to move to the centre
and become more pro-business.
Ecuador: Showtime for Lasso
The fun and games are coming to a head in Ecuador and last week, despite the Constitutional
Court (CC) deciding not to recommend that the case for impeachment against President
Guillermo Lasso continue. Instead, the belligerent and highly anit-Lasso Congress voted to
continue the cause and the debate and vote is now slated to happen this Tuesday, 16th May.
It’s going to be a Big Thing in Ecuador and Lasso has said he will be show up at Congress to
present his own defence. Grab the popcorn, fellow LatAm political junkies. What’s more, with
the CC ruling in Lasso’s favour it’s anyone’s guess how the vote goes next week and here’s the
math:
 The motion to debate and vote the impeachment passed last week with 88 votes in favour,
23 against (mostly Lasso’s own party and assorted allies), 5 abstentions and 21 no-shows
from the total 137 seats.
24

 The motion on Tuesday needs at least 2/3rd of votes in favour to pass, that’s 92 votes.
 The Lasso allies have spent the last couple of days insisting that 88 votes is the maximum,
and that due to the favourable CC ruling his detractors won’t get any more from the
undecided or no-shows.
 Meanwhile, Lasso’s enemies are pointing out they need four more votes from the 21 no-
shows (or even the 5 abstainers) to tip the balance.
In other words, it’s on a knife edge and being the Basket Case country that it most certainly is,
anything could happen on Tuesday but the three most likely courses are…
1) If Lasso gets less than 92 votes against him, he will continue as President.
2) If Lasso gets 92 or more votes against him, he is impeached and removed from office.
In this case, his Veep will in theory assume office and finish his term.
3) At any point in time (quite literally), Lasso can play the “Crossfire Death” caerd as
supplied to him by the country’s Constitution, dissolve Congress and govern by decree
for six months, as long as new elections happen within one year.
All three are possible. If 1), expect Ecuador bonds etc to rally. If 2), the Veep-Turned-President
World come under intense pressure to resign and call new presidencial elections but, in the way
of Dina Boluarte in Peru, if he rode out the store could in theory govern until 2025. However,
option 3) is also a possibility and Lasso has said he would use it if required, that would cause
seven types of mayhem in Ecuador and social protests led by CONAIE would be guaranteed.
So anyway, that’s Tuesday in Ecuador and yes, I think it’s an actionable event.
Ecuador signs its FTA with China
I have to admit, that this one dropped off my radar after the heads-up agreement was reached
in December 2022 and it may turn out to be a key piece in the SolGold (SOLG.l) jigsaw puzzle.
Something that Ecuador does not have with The USA it now has with China as on Wednesday,
the relevant ministers of China and Ecuador had a signing ceremony and closed on the Free
Trade Agreement between the two countries. It provides free access into China for 99.6% of
Ecuador products (as well as the obvious hydrocarbons, there’s a big trade in fish and fresh
fruit) while the Chinese imports into Ecuador are slightly more restricted, with 700 products still
having to pay duty (e.g. footwear, so that cheap Chinese shoes don’t ruin Ecuador’s collective
cobblers), the ones that matter to us in the mining world are now duty-free. The deal also
makes Chinese investment into Ecuador easier and quicker, that’s another reason to be long
SOLG in the weeks to come (9)
Peru: Four legs good two legs better
“Twelve voices were shouting in anger, and they were all alike.
No question, now, what had happened to the faces of the pigs.
The creatures outside looked from pig to man, and from man to pig,
and from pig to man again; but already it was impossible to say which was which.”
George Orwell, Animal Farm, 1945
It may be slightly unfair to quote the last lines of George Orwell’s classic allegorical exposé of
totalitarianism and Communism, in fact it definitely is, but the way Dina Boluarte has moved
from being voted in as Vice President on the ticket of lefty Pedro Castillo via the Hard Left Perú
Libre party, to her position on the firm Right of the political spectrum, has been impressive even
to this jaded and cynical LatAm political watcher. Now firmly ensconced in Peru’s Presidential
Palace despite the antipathy of her citizens for both her and her government (including abject
hatred from many of Peru’s provincial and rural zones), she completed her voyage from Hard
Left to Hard Right this weekend in a speech she gave during a visit to a small town just outside
of Lima (she daren’t travel too far inland, a couple of her ministers have tried to do that in the
last couple of weeks and needed police to get out in one piece). President Boluarte said (10):
“The government…is not going to stop working despite the provocations from the
opposition. I ask you; the dead protesters in this political crisis in the first quarter of this
year, who did they benefit? Did they benefit this government run by a woman from the
uplands? Or did they benefit Pedro Castillo, who had just enacted a coup d’etat and
25

sent those people out to cause violence around our country?”
“Indeed it was for Pedro Castillo, the murderer now in (the Diroes) jail, the author of
more than 60 deaths in this political crisis, the confrontations between Peruvians that
we greatly lament.”
No matter that it was her government, under her chosen Prime Minister and Interior Minister,
that ordered the forces of law and order to shoot live rounds directly at the protesters and
causing unnecessary deaths in several separate incidents. No matter they tried to deny live
rounds were used, or that the investigations by international bodies have accused the Boluarte
government of multiple human rights abuses, including genocide.
Part of this weekend’s speech is for self-preservation, as Boluarte is rightly fearful of going to
jail herself for the repression tactics ordered by her government during the social protests and
is already laying out her defence, i.e. blaming her ex-boss. But part is witness to the way
Boluarte is now fully and tightly in the hands and doing the bidding of the people who really run
Peru, the Lima Families.
And yes, all this is good for its mining industry, normal service has been resumed. We even
have topical examples of that as last week, the Teck owned Zafranal project in Arequipa region
was awarded its EIA (11), a new event good enough to get a NR out of the company itself (12):
Vancouver, B.C. – Teck Resources Limited (TSX: TECK.A and TECK.B, NYSE: TECK)
(“Teck”) announced today that the Zafranal copper project in Peru has received
regulatory approval from SENACE, Peru´s National Service of Environmental
Certification for Sustainable Investments. Zafranal is a highly competitive, mid-sized
copper-gold development project located in the porphyry copper belt of Southern Peru
in the Arequipa Region. The deposit is owned by Compañía Minera Zafranal S.A.C.
(“CMZ”), of which Teck owns 80% and Mitsubishi Materials Corporation (“MMC”) owns
20%.
“Regulatory approval of the Zafranal Project is an important step forward in our
strategy to grow our copper business and unlock significant value for shareholders,”
said Jonathan Price, CEO, Teck. “Zafranal will be a low-cost, long-life operation, and is
a key part of Teck’s industry-leading pipeline of high-quality, low-cost copper assets in
well-established mining jurisdictions in the Americas.”
The EIA is a big step forward (on a project your author once visited, back in the day when it
was run by AQM Copper) but the 2024 ground break date may turn out to be optimistic as
Zafranal isn’t popular with its neighbours and there are court cases against its current 30 year
use of land (usufruct) deal, brought by local municipality concerns against the government of
Arequipa. And on the subject, the Boluarte government this week made “we gotta build it”
noises about the infamous Tia Maria project (not a million miles away from Zafranal), the
project that never seems to go away. While on a visit to Arequipa, Mining Minister Óscar Vera
said (13) that the Tia Maria project should be re-activated and its benefits explained to the local
communities, despite those same people having rejected the project on no end of occasions.
On the back of the Minister’s words to the press, the local government rep in the Islay zone
around Tia Maria was asked for comment and didn’t mess around, “The project is not going to
happen, ever.”
Boluarte may be ready to pick her next fight.
Market Watching
Deferred
For another day.
Conclusion
IKN730 is done, we end with bullet points:
 By way of Stop Press, Newmont and Newcrest are as of this evening in a friendly
26

agreement, with the U$17.5Bn ticket price getting the approval of the NCM board (and
its shareholders seem majority satisfied with the price. The only potential stumbling
block now are NEM shareholders and they seem to have become supine about the price
hikes. This looks like it’s happening.
 Equinox (EQX) looks like tremendous value among the mid-caps, it has size and scale
as well as an increasingly attractive expansion project on its hands. Even with its high
cash cost profile, EQX will probably be able to fund what’s left of the capex bill
organically. I like the value on show here and while its price performance is clearly
behest to gold’s own price action, the bullish among you should strongly consider EQX
as a great way to leverage gains into an improving bullion market.
 Meanwhile, I’m going to sit on my hands for one more week and watch the way copper
evolves. I’d like not to sell anything and will be rooting for a price rally this week but if
not, I’m now at my limit, Faraday would be the first to go.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stock is Minera Alamos (MAI.v). Flash
updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best wishes, Mark
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://www.equinoxgold.com/news/equinox-gold-reports-first-quarter-2023-financial-and-operating-results/
(2) https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20230509006260/en/Western-Exploration-Announces-Best-Efforts-
Private-Placement-of-up-to-5.65-Million-of-Units
(3) https://aldebaranresources.com/news-releases/2023/aldebaran-intercepts-769.50-m-of-0.55-cueq-including-366-m-
of-0.65-cueq-at-altar-copper-gold-project-san-juan-province-argentina/
(4) https://6ix.com/event/aldebaran-corporate-update-3
(5) https://orefinders.ca/news/orefinders-appoints-gerry-brockelsby-as-chief-investment-officer/
(6) https://marimaca.com/marimaca-announces-cfo-transition-and-appointment-of-managing-director-chile/
(7) https://www.newcrest.com/sites/default/files/2023-
05/230512_Exclusivity%20period%20with%20Newmont%20extended%20-%20Market%20Release.pdf
(8) https://www.jornada.com.mx/notas/2023/05/10/economia/china-y-ecuador-firman-acuerdo-de-libre-comercio-
negociado-en-10-meses/?from=homeonline&block=ultimasnoticias
(9) https://rpp.pe/politica/gobierno/dina-boluarte-pedro-castillo-es-el-asesino-de-la-diroes-autor-de-las-mas-de-60-
victimas-de-la-crisis-politica-noticia-1484198
(10) https://gestion.pe/economia/zafranal-recibe-aprobacion-de-estudio-ambiental-para-proyecto-minero-de-cobre-
senace-noticia/
(11) https://www.teck.com/news/news-releases/2023/teck-announces-regulatory-approval-for-the-zafranal-project
(12) https://elbuho.pe/2023/03/arequipa-zafranal-se-aferra-a-cesion-de-terrenos-pero-autoridades-aun-evaluan-
nulidad/
(13) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NMKmV3eeKJs
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2022
Closed in 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
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Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
Goldshore Res GSHR.v Nov'22 C$0.18 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 88.9% Quick profit taken
Palamina Corp PA.v Dec'22 C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.08 -72.9% Clear-out of underperformer
Pure Gold PGM.h Dec'22 C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.015 -89.3% tiny trade on vh risk, went Ch11
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Set-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
28

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
29

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
30