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The IKN Weekly
Week 729, May 7th 2023
Contents
This Week: Please read this as if it were Sunday, Trade heads-up, In Today’s Edition, US CPI
on deck, A change for the better.
Fundamental Analysis: Minera Alamos (MAI.v) 4q23 financials and guidance.
Stocks to Follow: Chesapeake Gold (CKG.v), Western Exploration (WEX.v), Goldshore
Resources (GSHR.v), Newcore Gold (NCAU.v), AbraSilver Resource Corp (ABRA.v), Aldebaran
(ALDE.v), ATAC Resources (ATC.v), Minera IRL (MIRL.cse), Orefinders (ORX.v), Faraday Copper
(FDY.to).
Copper Basket: Overview, Oroco Resources (OCO.v), Hot Chili/Costa Copper (HCH.v),
Atacama Copper (ACOP.v).
Producer Basket: Overview, Newmont and Newcrest (NEM) (NCM), Barrick Gold (GOLD),
Wesdome Gold (WDOFF).
TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Aurelius Minerals (AUL.v).
Regional Politics: Chile STOP PRESS: The result of the Constitutional assembly vote is big
news for the country’s politics and for the Chilean mining sector, Chile: Two more mining
things, The problem with The Fraser Institute, Ecuador: Lasso catches a break, Peru: No news
is good news
Market Watching: Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) 1q23 financials, More time required for
Equinox Gold (EQX).
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
Please read this as if it were Sunday
As noted yesterday Sunday on the blog and at the Twitter account (where I’ve been most
active recently during the week), this edition didn’t go out at its normal time and instead, is
being sent today Monday evening because to quote myself (a), “Something came up this
Sunday evening.” However, the contents have not been updated to include information
gleaned* or closing prices on Monday so, please read this as if it were still Sunday.
As it turns out, a relatively quiet Monday’s worth of trading means we didn’t miss out on much,
though we now know more about the direction Goldshore Resources (GSGHR.v) would take on
publication of its new MRE.
*Apart from one Stop Press note on the Chile vote result, as the big news on that didn’t’ drop until this Monday
morning and it’s a must-explain development.
Trade heads-up
Standard top-of-shop advisory and a changes planned for the list this week, I am Selling
Chesapeake Gold (CKG.v) and the news it dropped this week is the veritable straw that break
the camel’s back. See ‘Stocks to Follow’ for details.
In Today’s Edition
 We do the 4q22 and YE numbers of our Top Pick Minera Alamos (MAI.v), plus what we
can expect from its 2023.
1

 We also check over the financials from our second largest trade and biggest copper
position, Amerigo Resources (ARG.to). As that company is more predictable, we also
take the opportunity to stress test its model at a lower average copper price for 2023
and show how it should still give us the desired bonus dividend even at $4.00/lb Cu.
 Chile continues to make Regional Politics headlines and we have two [EDIT: THREE]
pro-Chile mining stories for your consideration today.
 As for gold, things are suddenly looking more positive and on that note, let’s get on
with the intro and cover the monetary metal’s sudden perkiness.
US CPI on deck
This week’s main macro event is the US BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading, set to drop
pre-bell Wednesday May 10th. Current consensus
US Consumer Price Inflation (CPI)
(1) is in our tracking chart (right) at +5.0% YoY,
unchanged from last month but with month-
over-month and core CPI readings predicted to
drop a tenth or two, to 0.3% or 0.4%. We also get Producer Price Index (PPI) reading on
Thursday, forecast to increase by 0.3% headline
and core. Those would indicate modest gains to
the current PPI levels and not particularly
inflationary.
As noted recently, we saw CPI take over at least
temporarily as the most important dataset in the US macro calendar month but that’s likely to
revert back and from here on in, the Jobs Report will return to the top of the pile. However this
CPI number is still important and as regards gold, we’re on the same playbook as before.
Higher inflation than expected = rates higher for longer = gold negative
Lower inflation than expected = Fed pivot more likely sooner = gold positive
Nothing unusual in those lines of logic but, as we’ll read below, gold doesn’t have to follow our
playbook if it doesn’t want to.
A change for the better
Last week’s intro, “Fed and Rates and Jobs and Gold and Copper” tried to cover all the main
bases:
 We assumed the FOMC would hike a quarter point. Yes.
 Next up and still on US interest rates, “…until otherwise informed this desk will assume the
Fed will keep rates on hold (and they may even hint at a further hike), caring less about the
potential for recession and job losses and more about screwing down the inflation rate, once
and for all.” Yes.
 We worried that copper may struggle in the current environment. We do more on The Good
Doctor in its dedicated Copper Basket section today, suffice to say here that while it didn’t
trigger our downside “take action” U$3.80/lb price, copper had another soft week. So, yes.
Those three came in as expected, now come the two fails starting with the worst call, that of
the Jobs number. There was I, concerned that the US BLS number would come in under the
consensus forecast 178,000 NFP jobs added and headline 3.6%. Instead, this (2):
April Employment Report: 253 thousand Jobs, 3.4% Unemployment Rate
An absolutely blow-out jobs report and one that you’d assume as very negative for gold.
Indeed, bullion took a strong hit on Friday morning but in a very interesting morning’s worth of
price action, gold began clawing back its losses and immediately bounced from lows. I don’t
mind admitting being surprised, and a pleasant surprise it was too.
That brings up my second bad call of last week, that of gold which I again assumed would
2
4.1 7.1
6.2
2.4
0.5 4.5 4.5 3.5 4.5 2.6 8.6 0.7 5.7 9.7 5.8 3.8 6.8 1.9 5.8 3.8 2.8 7.7 1.7 5.6 4.6 0.6 0.5
0.5
5.3
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0 4.0 3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
12'naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 22'naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 32'naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced
source: U.S. BLS

continue its roiling around the U$2,000/oz line. Happy to be wrong on this one:
The FOMC decision came in as expected but to the surprise of many, once the Fed had finished
with its “higher for longer” talk that was supposed to prop up the US Dollar, gold started
catching a bid. Then when a new round of bank crisis talk kicked off gold hit new highs on
Wednesday evening and Thursday, trading solidly at the 2,050/oz line and occasionally spiking
higher (FWIW I witness spot gold briefly tick U$2,085/oz in Asia overnight trading) before the
jobs number threw its bucket of cold water over gold and plenty of other markets.
But even then gold did well! The immediate reaction to that blowout number was to dump to
the U$2,00/oz but buyers stepped in immediately, the trade was higher all Friday and gold
closed at $2,106/oz, almost Americas market day high. That’s not the type of welcome you
would have got for bullion just a few weeks ago, we really did see “bargain hunters” move in at
$2k/oz gold. That’s different, that the change for the better cited in today’s intro header and I
welcome my wrong call with open arms, gold seems far less attached to the $2k line than it
was this time last week. What’s more, risk is clearly to the upside and with the potential of the
trade becoming popular, another look at our GLD inventory tracking charts is a reminder of how
little exposure Wall St currently has to bullion. The buyers have been Central Banks, if the
suited and booted boys of capitalism decide to join in there’s at least 200tonnes of catch up in
these charts.
6.80 GLD: Inventory/Price Ratio, 2022 to date
6.60
6.40
6.20
6.00
5.80
5.60
5.40
5.20
5.00
4.80
Since mid-March we’ve taken the position that gold should stay around U$2,000/oz and it’s a
call that will work “until it doesn’t.” There’s evidence mounting that gold’s rest period around
the U$2,000/oz line is coming to an end and, in the words of Mark Bristow as he presented the
Barrick earnings quarter to the world last week, “the risk is on the upside.”
3
12/21/13 22/1/41 22/1/82 22/2/11 22/2/52 22/3/11 22/3/52 22/4/8 22/4/22 22/5/6 22/5/02 22/6/3 22/6/71 22/7/1 22/7/51 22/7/92 22/8/21 22/8/62 22/9/9 22/9/32 22/01/7 22/01/12 22/11/4 22/11/81 22/21/2 22/21/61 22/21/03 32/1/31 32/1/72 32/2/01 32/2/42 32/3/01 32/3/42 32/4/7 32/4/12 32/5/5
GLD gold holdings, 2022 to date (metric tonnes)
1120
1100
1080
1060
1040
1020
1000
980
960
940
920
Source: SPDR data, IKN calcs 900
880
860
12/21/13 22/1/41 22/1/82 22/2/11 22/2/52 22/3/11 22/3/52 22/4/8 22/4/22 22/5/6 22/5/02 22/6/3 22/6/71 22/7/1 22/7/51 22/7/92 22/8/21 22/8/62 22/9/9 22/9/32 22/01/7 22/01/12 22/11/4 22/11/81 22/21/2 22/21/61 22/21/03 32/1/31 32/1/72 32/2/01 32/2/42 32/3/01 32/3/42 32/4/7 32/4/12 32/5/5
mt
source: SPDR GLD data

Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Minera Alamos (MAI.v) 4q23 financials and guidance
Tueday May 2nd saw our Top Pick stock Minera Alamos file its 2022 year-end and 4q22
financials, as well as providing plenty of guidance (3) for the quarters at hand and what we can
expect from the company going forward. Today we run through the numbers and consider what
the next couple of quarters are likely to bring to the company. Points to make:
 The ramp-up at Santana has hit further delays and to put it diplomatically, 2023 is shaping
up to be a “sub-optimal year”.
 The company financials continue strong, MAI’s issues are about timing, not about financing.
As such the situation isn’t as bad as it might have been.
 The YE P+L financials include a slight oddity caused by accounting rules, but it’s no biggie in
the great scheme of things.
 The long-term growth objectives and investment thesis are unchanged, this is still a Top Pick
and represents tremendous fundamental value
 The delays have seen the share price drag and there’s no hiding from the a pain that’s
caused for those of us fully bought in (e.g. me), for others the window of opportunity
remains open.
So let’s make them.
Santana production and guidance for 2023
We begin with the negatives: We explain the financial side of the bad news, talk over the
production side of the bad news, then move on to the way it affects operational results for this
filing and for the next couple of quarters. There’s plenty to consider in that little lot but it’s not
all bad, as there’s far less effect on the MAI balance sheet and at this stage in the company’s
development, that’s what really matters. Let’s start here, with quarterly gold sales and forecasts
for the quarters to come:
MAI: Gold sales, per qtr
4
104
0933 9213
7274
4382
5921
0053
0005
6000
5500
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000 2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 tse32q2 tse32q3
Au Oz
source: company data, IKN ests
We know that MAI shipped 2,834oz in the quarter because they told us. We also know 1q23
saw much reduced sales of 1,295oz gold because they also told us that in the YE MD&A (and
the cover NR). We know about the water availability issue at Santana and there are no
surprises in that 4q22 number and MAI explained the even lower production schedule of 1q23
was due to “a period of extended waste mining and development activities at the Santana
project”. That’s fair enough and it’s good to see MAI is doing what amounts to pre-strip to
make the quarters to come more efficient, but these Plan B works wouldn’t have happened if
normal mining conditions were possible and that, again, means water supply. At this point we
can report better news, as rains have arrived in that part of Mexico and the tight water situation
is now getting better. We also know that MAI is moving to secure an alternative water supply
for the mine which involves a series of permits, none of which particularly problematic (don’t
believe everything you hear about Mexico) but all of which take their bureaucratic time.
Summing up the recent results: Not good.
Now to the future and in the above chart we guesstimate sales of 3,500oz for 2q23 based on
this section of the MD&A:
Updated operational plans have identified approximately 4000 ounces of gold from the

Nicho Norte pit which are available for short term mining activities in the coming
quarter ahead of the planned expansion of mining operations to focus more on the
larger Nicho main zone mineralization.
On consulting with MAI President Ramshaw about the 4k number, he said that he expected
most-not-all the ounces to be processed in Q2 (i.e. the current quarter) so, without any deep
insider knowledge, we plump for our 3,500oz number. Then from 3q23 onward and as long as
the company plans stay on track this time, we should be back to the type of 5,000oz/qtr rhythm
that we’d expected from Santana in its early quarters of 2022, the first staging post on the way
to its eventual target of 10,000oz/qtr.
That’s the gold production and sales overview done, now we move to the money (in Canadian
Dollars, unless stated). The YE financials include an accounting oddity that throws out the
numbers by around $5.5m in a couple of places, one of those “book keeping only” things that
makes the financials messy to look at on a comparative basis and is going to take a couple of
quarters to unwind, but ultimately makes precious little difference to the company or its
financial position. In effect, it’s this:
 MAI sold gold to a middleman company whose job it was to refine and deliver to the final
customer.
 MAI sent the gold and received the payment. Its job is done, but…
 Because the gold is not fully refined and in the hands of its final purchaser, the GAAP
accounting rules do not allow MAI to book the cash received as a sale. Instead, it has to go
down as “deferred revenue” and also have a matching debit in current liabilities.
It’s an odd situation and described to me by company President Ramshaw as “an absolute ball
ache”. Quite right too, because it makes no real difference to the company but has to be
accounted for in several different places in its financials, all for an effect that will unwind fully in
the next couple of quarters, mostly Q1 in fact. One place that sheds light on this $5.5m
deferred payment is in its notes on inventory position, which goes like this:
Not only do we get the amount that MAI received for its gold, but by featuring the inventories
note we also get a nice approximation of the
MAI: Inventories
margins it’s running at Santana, with the carrying
value at $2.377m added to inventories. Here’s our
tracking chart (right) and item is booked in the
black column of Q4. It then goes away as the
middleman refines and delivers the gold to its final
destination, all out of the hands of MAI
Essentially, what we have is “revenue that cannot
be called revenue”, as per the GAAP rules. This
shows in the both the P+L charts such as this one
(right), that booked just $206k in revenues for
4q23. We then assume $7.2m in top line revenues for 1q23, made up of $4m in the deferred
cash now freed up and $3.2m in new shipments of the 1,295koz gold. Then we go for $10.1m
in top line revenues in 2q23, as the last $1m of the deferred revenue is booked on top of
5
694.5 337.6
780.9
96.7 320.6
5
5.5
C$m supplies
10 finished metal inv
leach pad ore
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
4q21 1q22 2q22 3q22 4q22 1q23est 2q23est
source: company filings

3,500oz of sales. Finally and once all that is through the system, we assume a return to
5,000/oz quarters and at C$2,600/oz received price, that will be $13m.
MAI.v: Revenues
14 13
12
10.1
10 9.094
7.269 7.2
8
5.16
6
4
2 0.206
0
6
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 tse32q1 tse32q2 tse32q3
C$m
source: company filings, IKN ests
Now obviously (and let’s bold-type these next words) these are best guesses and not figures
we can take to the bank. It’s going to be very tough to get the exact quarter snapshot exact,
what with the normal moving targets of production and gold price further complicated by trying
to second-guess when the deferred payments can be booked by the company. What’s more,
I’m not that worried about exactly how it all goes down anyway. For one thing MAI has already
received the cash and for another, it’s more important to see Santana picked up its production
pace in the second half of 2023 and get to a steadier 5,000/oz quarterly production level,
something it would have done already if it weren’t for the drought conditions.
But the need to keep tabs on the revenues flow and model it for comparative purposes still
exists, so here we do just that to get to some “gross profit” numbers:
MAI.v: Revs, COGS and Gross margin
61.5 552.2 509.2
962.7
952.3 10.4
490.9
734.4 756.4
602.0
695.3
93.3-
2.7
3
2.4
1.01
5.4 6.5
31
5.5
5.7
C$m Revenues
COGS
14
"gross profit"
12
10
8 6
4
2
0
-2
source: MAI filings, IKN ests
-4
-6
1q22 2q22 3q22 4q22 1q23est 2q23est 3q23est
This quarter showed an ostensible gross loss of $3.39m due to that missing $5.5m, but that
gets added back in the two quarters to come and, with COGS likely to be lower this quarter due
to the relative lack of activity, gross profit is bolstered accordingly. The chart below doesn’t stop
at mine COGS and adds in all expenditures to arrive at a mine operating income (including
depreciation, exploration, evaluation, G&A, salaries and our ever-popular catch-all “other”) and
according to the model 1q23 won’t be much more than breakeven. Let’s be generous and all
2q23 “transitional” (though 3,500oz gold sales is still nothing to write home about) so when
3q23 comes around and our model assumes we’re back at a base case 5,000/oz quarter
production level, Santana will be good for and estimated C$3.5m in operating profits at current
gold prices.
MAI.v: financial results
61.5
136.3
925.1
962.7
196.4
875.2
490.9
411.7
89.1
602.0
390.5
788.4-
2.7
5.6
7.0
1.01
2.7
9.2
31
5.9
5.3
C$m Revenues
total exp
14 mine op inc
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
source: company filings
-6
1q22 2q22 3q22 4q22 1q23est 2q23est 3q23est

The bottom line to operating numbers is to show that despite the start of 2023 being sticky, the
deferred revenue making a mess of the financials and production still affected by the drought
conditions (or permit delays, if you insist) the company will still be able to tick over and make
money. When the hump is over and MAI starts delivering on the improvement in throughput
and production it has promised for the second half of this year, it will quickly start generating
the type of meaningful profits we’ve required from it for organic growth at Santana (recall, MAI
plans to raise a modest amount of debt to fund Cerro de Oro).
But it’s all rather academic, because what really matters at MAI is the balance sheet:
MAI.v: Assets
60
55
50 45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
The overview assets chart (above left) incorporates those pesky $5.5m and also adds $2.79m
to its inventories pile (see above), but that’s countered by the $5.514m appearing in the current
liabilities pile (above right), hence the spike you see. As the finished gold is delivered to final
customer and those ounces are allowed to be booked normally, we assume the spike drops
significantly for 1q23 and is gone by Q2. Meanwhile, MAI is back booking cash and with
inventories back to a normal level for 2q23 and beyond.
The cash and working capital charts show cash at $13.154m as at end 2023 and our model
guesstimating cash dropping to a low of around $11m in 1q23, before resuming its climb on
positive margins from normal sales. Meanwhile, working capital takes a slightly different route
as it
Drops around $4m, rather than $2m, as temporary inventory boost minus the temporary
deferred revenue liability subtract an extra $2.7m aggregate. But again and from there, we
expect working capital to increase as Santana gets into gear and the real takeaway is to see
that at no point does MAI come under any sort of financial pressure. This is important and it’s
different from the stories at so many other mining developers. There are no end of disaster
stories about cost overruns and time delays on projects funded by debt, and debt that needs
servicing even if there’s no money coming in. MAI at Santana is the original shoestring mine,
they are proud to have built it for U$10m and rightly so, it also means they’ve stayed away
from the credit markets and retained treasury cash. As things have turned out, this prudent
7
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 tse32q1 tse32q2 tse32q3
$m MAI.v: Liabilities per qtr
inventories 11
fixed 10
other current cash 9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
source: company filings
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 tse32q1 tse32q2 tse32q3
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
LT liabs
current liabs
MAI.v: Cash treasury per qtr
26
24
22
20
18
16
14 12 10 8
6
4
2
0
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 tse32q1 tse32q2 tse32q3
source: company filings
srallod
fo snoillim
MAI.v: Working Capital per qtr
42.1
865.6
449.11 653.42 255.22 186.02 887.91 496.41 24.41 654.51 805.71 562.22 482.81 5.81 7.02 7.32
26
24
22
20
18
16
14 12 10 8
6
4
2
0
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 tse32q1 tse32q2 tse32q3
source company filings
srallod
fo snoillim

financial management has paid dividends as the water-caused delays in the Santana ramp-up
have not put the company under financial pressure. Execution pressure yes and its shareholders
(us) have every right to kvetch and moan about
the time it’s taken to get Santana up to speed, MAI.v: Shares Out
(NB: Cut-down Y axis)
but at no point has this delay caused existential
risk to Minera Alamos. You can’t say that about a
lot of the other juniors out there and we have
don’t limit ourselves to the full-scale debt
disaster stories (Harte, PureGold), just the
“glitches” combined with debt+delay at
companies such as Argonaut and Wesdome have
done significant equity price damage.
And on that subject, the share count is now up
to 461.88m as at end 4q22 and as at this
weekend, too. We assume 462m for valuation purposes going forward and there’s no reason to
expect that to change much in the near future.
Cerro de Oro and other assets
This set of financials was all about Santana and the only real change to the sections at the
other company properties (Cerro de Oro, La Fortuna, Los Verdes) is the confirmation that the
CdO permit application is in:
In April 2023, the Company completed the documentation necessary to formally
proceed with the Cerro de Oro permitting process. The management of the remainder
of the permit process will now be handled by the Company's permitting consultants.
Concurrent with the permitting, the Company is planning additional drilling and
metallurgical work that will inform the final operational plan for the proposed mine.
Discussion and conclusion
In sum, the news and development from MAI in this update is annoying. Development has been
slower than expected, the water issue has again affected its plans and though that seems to be
improving, the fact that guidance is for Santana production quarters that will build toward
5,000oz/qtr in the second half of the year when they should be a baseline by now as the mine
builds towards a 10k/qtr production schedule, is disappointing.
However mediocre 2023 looks, however, the prospects at Minera Alamos remain largely
unchanged. And yes, this is the bit when your author bangs on about the need for patience and
resolution at times, a message that can wear a little thin if it’s the only reason (or whining
excuse, if you like) the anal yst has to remain stubborn about an under-performing Top Pick
recommendation. So despite the way this sector and its players historically treats its
shareholders, we now lay out three reasons why it makes sense to “stay loyal to a mining
stock”, in this case MAI.v, as mad as that phrase may look when written down.
 Its issues at Santana are temporary. We know water is coming back to Santana, we know it
will get its permits and expand the mine, we know it’s working on an alternative water source
so that we don’t go through the same mess again. The plan at Santana has been delayed, not
scuppered, the gold is still in the ground and even at the current low levels of production the
profit margins are excelleent
 Its financial position is solid. By that I mean above all its balance sheet and the prudent way it
has managed cahs to date has allowed MAI the breathing space to take the 2022 and 2023
water related ramp-up glitches at Santana in its stride. There’s plenty of cash and a flexible
mine plan, there is not any existential risk or undue pressure on the share price. That also
means when MAI at Santana gets its act together, the benefit will run straight through this
clean set of books and to the equity (a fancy way of saying the share price will go up).
 Its growth pipeline has always been the reason to like MAI.v and that hasn’t changed. Cerro
de Oro permitting track has started, the rules are clear in Mexico (no matter how many times
detractors shout “Commies!” up there) and the share count has stayed where it is. Once
Santana is out of the water penalty box (a matter of time) MAI will begin to add significant
8
93.673
64.704 24.014
83.634 35.934 45.144 49.144 51.644 2.644 84.844 32.944 86.754 88.164 264 264
500
475
450
425
400
375
350
325
300
275
250
225
200
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 tse32q1 tse32q2
source: company filings
serahs
fo
snoillim

asset value.
There’s also a moral issue, that Minera Alamos is the type of wealth-building proposition I look
for and want to sponsor with my own money. Nothing against pure market speculation, but
there comes a time when you want your money to work not just for yourself, but as a means of
sponsoring people who do things the right way and create wealth for all concerned
stakeholders. Mining is the original “something from nothing” business, it’s as capitalist as it
comes to 1) take dirt out of the planet 2) put it through a machine and then 3) sell what comes
out the other end at a profit, but that doesn’t preclude it from being able to advance the cause
of society and improve the lives of more than just a bunch of greedy salespeople of dreams and
paper. MAI is the right company with the right people doing the right thing for the right
reasons. For sure it exists to make people like Koningen and Ramshaw rich (or perhaps in the
case of Ramshaw, richer) but their alignment with the rest of the world means we can all get to
come along for the ride and benefit from the efforts. These are the stories and companies I
look to back and they’re also the companies to which I’m willing to grant plenty of slack if
things don’t go perfectly for a quarter or four. The plan is clear, the pathway to growth is
established, the financial position is strong and the wealth is still there to be created. Minera
Alamos is looking to the long-term as a company, shareholder should do the same
Stocks to Follow
Not the greatest week for the IKN Stocks to Follow list. We saw six winners (ABRA.v, NCAU.v,
ORX.v, GSHR.v, CTGO, MENE.v) from the 18 covered stocks, two unchanged on the week
(ALDE.v, MIRL.cse) and ten losers (MAI.v, ARG.to, SOLG.to QCCU.v, FDY.to, WEX.v, RIO.v,
CKG.v, ATC.v). There were double figure moves in both directions too, with the biggest losers
Chesapeake Gold (CKG.v down 24.1%), Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v down 12.2%), Faraday Copper (FDY.to
down 11.8%) and to those, let’s add QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v down 9.1%) as that stock
continues to frustrate with failed breakouts. As for the big percentage winners, Goldshore
(GSGHR.v up 23.5%) led the field along with Orefinders (ORX.v up 14.3%) and AbraSilver
(ABRA.v up 13.2%). All in all a mixed bunch and one that doesn’t compare well to the moves
seen in benchmark ETFs such as GLD (up 1.44%), GDXJ (up 5.2%) and GDX (up 5.40%) but
that’s the nature of following smaller juniors ands in the current set-up, our bias toward copper
in the current portfolio didn’t help matters.
We currently have 18 open positions, two below the self-imposed maximum and I personally
own 14 of them. Nine are in the green, one is unchanged, eight are in the red.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.385 83.3% $0.75 first tgt, #1 idea
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Amerigo Res ARG.to STR BUY C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.51 11.0% Main Cu trade, top fundies
SolGold SOLG.to STR BUY C$0.265 19-Feb-23 C$0.315 18.9% Cu in Ecuador, M&A tgt
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v SPEC BUY C$0.265 25-Apr-21 C$0.15 -43.4% MRE now due 2q23, annoying
Faraday Copper FDY.to BUY C$0.79 26-Mar-23 C$0.90 13.9% Latest Cu exploreco, IKN723
AbraSilver Res. ABRA.v BUY C$0.36 4-Dec-22 C$0.385 8.3% added for last time Mar'23
Western Explor. WEX.v BUY C$1.87 9-Apr-23 C$1.76 -5.9% new trade, Au spec in NV USA
Newcore Gold NCAU.v BUY C$0.205 23-Oct-22 C$0.195 -4.9% MRE better than it looked.
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v SPEC BUY C$0.83 22-Apr-18 C$0.18 -78.3% Cheap on permit probs, appeal
SPECULATIVE TRADES
Orefinders ORX.v.v SPEC BUY C$0.04 20-Nov-22 C$0.04 0.0% build position at 4c
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v SELLING C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$2.05 -33.2% Closing on legal action news
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v BUY C$0.72 16-May-21 C$0.74 2.8% drill assays now coming
Minera IRL MIRL.cse avoid C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.035 -82.1% run into ground byCEO, AVOID
9

A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
ATAC Res ATC.v WATCH C$0.095 11-Sep-22 C$0.15 57.9% Cheap Yukon neighbour play
Rugby Resources RUG.v WATCH C$0.06 26-Mar-23 C$0.055 -8.3% new on watchlist, Cu in Col
Goldshore Res GSHR.v WATCH C$0.165 26-Mar-23 C$0.315 90.9% return to list, possible flip
Contango Ore CTGO WATCH U$23.25 2-Dec-22 U$29.99 29.0% Manh Choh finance happening
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.63 6-Dec-20 C$0.34 -46.0% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2023 date closed close price
Altiplano Metals APN.v jan'23 C$0.31 17-Sep-21 C$0.17 -45.2% delayed and will dilute soon
Western Copper WRN.to mar'23 C$2.02 13-Nov-22 C$2.32 14.9% sold on reduced M&A prob.
2015 to 2022 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on some of the covered companies:
Chesapeake Gold (CKG.v): SELLING. Unlike performing companies, assets or trades that hit
a glitchy period (e.g. MAI.v), there comes a time when an underperforming trade or one that
has failed to meet expectations one time too many needs to be cut, no matter how small the
trade or how promising its eventual potential might be if it gets its act together. The news last
week from CKG (4) was the veritable straw that breaks the camel’s back, here’s the body of the
NR:
Vancouver, British Columbia – (May 5, 2023) – Chesapeake Gold Corp. (TSXV: CKG)
(OTCQX: CHPGF) (“Chesapeake” or the “Company“) has initiated legal proceedings
against the Dirección General de Minas of Mexico (“DGM“) with the Federal Court of
Administrative Justice in the state of Durango, Mexico in response to the DGM’s
cancellation of the San Vicente 3 mineral concession. The San Vicente 3 mineral
concession is one of 12 mineral concessions comprising the Metates property,
representing 700 hectares of the 4,260 hectares in the Metates project, and
encompasses a portion of the Metates mineral resource.
The Company has recently become aware that the DGM has cancelled the San
Vicente 3 mineral concession on the basis that the Company did not provide adequate
evidence to support the Company’s performance of the exploration work required to
maintain the concession. The Company’s legal position, approved by external Mexican
legal counsel, is that the work required to maintain the concession was conducted on
the property and appropriate evidence was submitted to the DGM to substantiate the
work. The Company’s Mexican legal counsel has initiated legal proceedings against
the DGM with the Federal Court of Administrative Justice in the state of Durango to
contest the legality of the cancellation of the San Vicente 3 mineral concession on the
grounds that (1) the DGM failed to comply with mandated cancellation procedures in
accordance with applicable legislation, and (2) the DGM determined, erroneously, that
evidence submitted in support of the exploration work was insufficient.
The Company intends to vigorously defend its position with respect to the San Vicente
3 mineral concession.
About Chesapeake
If it were another company, one that had made mention of potential concession rights issues,
or one that had its CEO located in Mexico, or one that had not promised to deliver key
metallurgy results that would unlock the potential of its main Metates project by mid-2022 but
was still making the market and its shareholders
wait on the results, then perhaps this wouldn’t
have snapped my patience. But seeing CKG now
embroiled in concession rights problems of the
type that can drag on and on in Mexico and
ostensibly because the company had not properly
communicated its position with government
authorities and left itself open to query…it’s
enough. I’m out and I’ll take my 30% (or so) loss,
move on and find a more dynamic place to get
leverage to the price of gold.
10

Too much heartache, too many problems, not enough momentum, not enough urgency and
now, clear signals of slipshod corporate practices and the potential for a long legal battle, Adios.
Western Exploration (WEX.v): We understand that the WEX financing goes live as from
tomorrow Monday, slightly later than the original plan but still well within the bounds of the
acceptable. We should expect the placement to fully fill and once it does, the promo to ramp up
on this company and project.
The advertised size may be slightly lower than $10m, however I wouldn’t be at all surprised to
see WEX reach gross proceeds of $10m when the financing eventually closes. As for pricing,
management is keeping the exact number close to its chest (avoids market issues of many
types) but there’s a general expectation of something around $1.75 per unit, which includes a
half warrant at perhaps $2.25. If it comes in slightly lower or higher than that, don’t bite me.
Goldshore Resources (GSHR.v): More Pyrrhic victory:
Now up 90% since we pointed the finger at GSHR, identified it as a potential trade (without
buying any personally, grrrr) and added it to the Watch List of stocks. Friday saw GSHR get
bought into the close and it finished at its best price since November last year (when we did
manage to trade it for a profit) and according to CEO Brett Richards (5) (6), the company will
announce its updated mineral resource estimate (MRE) this coming week, most likely tomorrow
Monday. More upside in the pipe, or buy-rumour-sell-news? Time will tell.
Newcore Gold (NCAU.v): For about half a day on
Thursday, I entertained the wild dream of seeing
my 20.5c cost average for NCAU close in the green
this weekend. But it was not to be, as at the
Thursday clsoe someone dumped half a million
shares onto the bid and then we know how gold
dumped on Friday thanks to that strong jobs report,
taking all momentum away from the tinycaps and
explorecos.
AbraSilver Resource Corp (ABRA.v): Our silver
play keeps cranking out the strong drill assays from
the JAC” zone at Diablillos, Argentina, with last
Thursday’s (7) “…32.0 Metres at 580 g/t AgEq in Oxides” quote/unquote the latest in the line,
of which 530g/t was straight silver. The oxide angle is also important, as while JAC is likely to
be accessed from underground, it means the mineralization could theoretically be added
straight on to the heap leach that the main Oculto zone presumes.
The plan overview of Diablillos shows the latest assays marked, but also illustrates how JAC is
firming up as a defined deposit and how it’s not much of an intellectual leap to see how it can
be mined in conjunction with the large open pit plan for Oculto. We also see the outlaying
targets waiting for their turn once the rigs have done at JAC, there’s still a lot of upside
11

potential at this project.
Aldebaran (ALDE.v): Another week in which ALDE remained flatline at its recent lows on thin
volume.
And once again, a week in which positive corporate news from ALDE wasn’t reflected in the
share price action. On Friday the company announced (8) the exercise of 8,588,334 warrants at
$0.70 which adds around $6m to treasury, useful money for sure. That puts total shares out at
an IKN estimated 153.96m and market cap at C$113m and change this weekend As trrhis chart
shows, its share count has moved significantly higher in recent quarters, it now has to justify
that dilution with results. However, these shares put enough cash in ALDE’s treasury to see it
into 2024 without any further dilution or share sales required.
ALDE.v: Shares outstanding
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
12
91.ram ey91.nuj 91.pes 91.ced 02.ram ey02.nuj 02.pes 02.ced 12.ram ey12.nuj 12.pes 12.ced 22.ram ey22.nuj 22.pes 22.ced tse32.ram tse_ey32.nuj tse32.pes tse32.ced
source: company filings, IKN ests
ATAC Resources (ATC.v): A quick in-house note that as the Hecla (HL) deal to buy out ATC.v
is due to close “late Q2”, we’ll leave this trade on the Watch List for a few more weeks and then

it will quietly disappear, leaving no trace or even a “closed trade” line (as there’s no trade to
close). Unless something unexpected happens to it or the deal, consider it a bauble for the next
couple of months.
Minera IRL (MIRL.cse): Two pieces of news. Firstly, the auditor issues that MIRL said would
be cleared up by May 1st were not cleared up by May 1st and the company now says it needs
until “mid-May” to file its annuals.
As we have previously announced, the audit of our two operating subsidiaries was
completed and the report provided to our auditor. Our auditor is currently reviewing this
report and consolidating the two subsidiaries with the parent company. We had
originally anticipated completion by the 1st of May but we now understand that we
should not expect to receive our auditor’s report until mid-May.
Secondly, April gold shipments from Corihuarmi came to 1,643oz Au and while that’s an
improvement, it’s still at “breakeven at best” cash flow levels and contained pad gold dropped
in the quarter, too. The stock counts down the days to the moment COFIDE forecloses on
Ollachea, in 3q23.
MIRL: 2020/22 Corihuarmi gold shipments, per month
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
13
12naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 22naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 32naj bef ram rpa
Oz Au
source: MIRL filings
Orefinders (ORX.v): This 12-month chart shows
that last weekend’s 3.5c close is an exception rather
than the rule and the speculator looking to
accumulate this scattergun exploreco option should
look at do so at 4c. With its strong financial position
and newly positioned as the conceptual hub of the
Ore Group companies, there’s a lot to like about this
vehicle at this price and even more if the world starts
moving speculative cash into the precious metals
sector.
Faraday Copper (FDY.to): We had the first of three
expected news releases on May from FDY, when last
week it announced its updated PEA (9) that headlined an “NPV US$713M and 4.2 Billion Pounds
of Measured and Indicated Copper Mineral Resources.” The market wasn’t particularly
impressed with the headline numbers in the PEA, such as the 15.6% IRR at U$3,80/lb copper,
sniffed at the relatively small annual projected production and didn’t really get why the mine
life was so long under this mine plan. As a result, the
stock continued its recent selling and though the
eventual 90c close on Friday was a little unfortunate
(small seller, no buyer) its wasn’t far from the overall
sentiment.
So to be clear, 1) it didn’t surprise this deak that the
casual observer wouldn’t jump to buy FDY on these
numbers and 2) it’s not a concern. Our trade thesis

has always understood that this PEA was one of those typical “snapshot in time” situations that,
thanks to the ongoing drilling since the resource cut-off for the PEA was defined, means this
PEA is already out of date in real terms. What we wanted
from this PEA is a clear technical path that shows how the
mine can be developed as a dual open-pit/UG operation
and how a mine plan accesses the deeper and richer UG
ore in an efficient way. We’ll get to see that once the 43-
101 is filed to SEDAR and once it is, we expect larger
brokerages to be able to better model what we now
known about the deposit and quickly understand that
today’s PEA is only a starting point and that much better
project economics should be available by quicker access of
the UG material
t
With two more meaningful NRs in the pipeline, i.e. its
latest 1q23 financials and the the results of that very
promising looking deep hole that could enlarge the UG
breccia significantly, we’re better off ignoring the cool
reception to last week’s news and gathering all the
information before coming to a decision. However, this
sell-off now looks rather overcooked and anyone who feels like second-guessing the upcoming
assay NR has a nice entry point with which to speculate.
The Copper Basket
After eighteen weeks of 2023, The Copper Basket shows a gain of 3.16% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Solaris Res SLS.to 6.44 114.56 764.12 6.67 3.6%
2 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.22 88.028 377.64 4.29 33.2%
3 Western Copper WRN.to 2.41 151.597 360.80 2.38 -1.2%
4 Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to 1.92 105.96 182.25 1.72 -10.4%
5 Oroco Res OCO.v 0.91 213.438 177.15 0.83 -8.8%
6 Faraday Copper FDY.to 0.54 175.2 157.68 0.90 66.7%
7 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.78 153.96 113.93 0.74 -5.1%
8 Hot Chili HCH.v 0.78 119.455 107.51 0.90 15.4%
9 Regulus Res. REG.v 1.10 124.509 100.85 0.81 -26.4%
10 Pan Global Res PGZ.v 0.46 212.145 72.13 0.34 -26.1%
11 Kodiak Copper KDK.v 1.12 56.2 41.59 0.74 -33.9%
12 QC Copper QCCU.v 0.165 162.815 24.42 0.15 -9.1%
13 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.16 86.966 19.13 0.22 37.5%
14 Libero Copper LBC.v 0.155 93.869 12.67 0.135 -12.9%
15 Atacama Copper ACOP.v 0.16 34.373 6.87 0.20 25.0%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg 3.16%
The basket average lost exactly 2.00% on the week, with copper stocks under pressure in a
newly risk-off world. We still got four winners
on the week (WRN.to, MARI.to, REG.v, ACOP.v) 14% The Copper Basket 2023, weekly evolution
including the biggest percentage winner, 12%
Atacama Copper (ACOP.v up 11.1) and three 10%
8%
others remained unchanged (OCO.v, ALDE.v,
6%
LBC.v). That leaves eight losers on the week 4%
(SLS.to, ASCU.to, HCH.v, PGZ.v, FDY.to, KDK.v, 2%
QCCU.v, ECU.v) with one of those a double 0%
-2%
figure percentage loser, that’s Faraday Copper
-4%
14 ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam
source: IKN calcs

(FDY.to down 11.8%). So with the dust settled we see that all the gains racked up in the first
three weeks of April have vanished, something to keep in mind when we get to the curated
news digest below.
As for copper-the-metal price action, it was
more inaction than anything else. The spike
you see to U$4.00/lb on May 1st was
anomalous to the futures contract and we
didn’t see the same in the spot market, the
rest of the week was slack for The Good
Doctor and though it didn’t threaten (what I
consider to be) my trigger point of U$3.80/lb
and below, it had all sorts of problems to
push higher and trading pits all reported a
distinct lack of buyers. Copper’s week was of
course punctuated by the same main
moments as other markets, i.e. the FOMC
and the US Jobs report, the latest round of
bank crises in The USA and the bounce thereafter when the world decided it was now
overblown. But it’s the medium-term horizon of a world recession that weighs heaviest on
copper today and despite those widely disseminated copper stocks numbers, there’s the feeling
of slack in the supply chain for the first time in months.
Which dovetails nicely into our two macro copper topics this week, both pointing in their own
way to the same near-term price ceiling we mulled over last weekend. First up the latest market
guidance from Chile’s beancounter people Cochilco, who make regular calls on the future of the
copper market and are often lambasted for aiming too low in their price calls. This desk has
criticized Cochilco for the same tendency over the years but to be fair, at least part of its job is
to provide a baseline price for Chile’s most important export (by far) to the government, which
then goes about using the projections in its public sector budgets. Therefore, when Cochilco on
Thursday announced (10) it had raised its 2023 average price projection from U$3.85/lb to
U$3.90/lb (though kept its 2024 forecast at U$3.80/lb), that 5c/lb added is probably more
bullish than it looks at first sight. However the most interesting part of its market projections
last week is the forecast supply and demand, with 2023 expected to run a 67kmt deficit but
notably, 2024 moves back into a supply surplus of 367kmt copper.
This Spanish language chart gives more details on that projected 369kmt copper surplus for
2024 and the whole 14 page PDF report (also Spanish language) is available on this link (11),
for example, this year’s total projected refined supply of 25.676mt Cu (includes mine and scrap)
gets close to but does not fully meet the projected demand of 25,743mt Cu, with 56% of that
demand expected from China.
Second up is this report from Nikkei dot com’s Asia desk (12) entitled, “Copper loses shine for
investors on China's mixed recovery” that comes with an equally snappy sub-header, “Fund
outflows increase after an early bump from lifting of COVID restrictions.” That just about covers
the content of the report too, but details so matter so here’s how the note begins:
Global copper funds saw a net outflow of $150 million in April after a net inflow of $1.3
billion for the first three months of 2023, data from market research firm EPFR shows.
The week of April 19 brought the biggest outflow since last June, and the second-
biggest weekly drop since the start of 2020.
15

That gets illustrated by this chart ripped from the report and those big Q1 inflows as well as the
recent reversal in April are clearly shown.
The reporter had the Rolodex working too, with three market suits interviewed for quotes. Here
are two of them:
"If there's a bellwether commodity tied to perceptions of forthcoming Chinese growth,
it's copper," said Cameron Brandt, EPFR's director of research. "There's a real sense
that this Chinese rebound might not be the kind of broad catalyst for global growth that
previous iterations have been."
Much will depend on the composition of this growth, said Alex Tuckett, head of
economics at CRU, a commodities-focused business intelligence firm.
"We think this recovery in China is going to be driven quite a lot by the consumer," he
said. "If the Chinese consumer does seem to be spending again, as COVID restrictions
have gone, then that demand is going to be less commodity intensive."
So far this year, your author has proposed a “This Time Is Different” scenario for copper, a
metal with more protection against the classic recessionary winds due to its continued strong
demand in the country that uses over 50% of the world’s production. However and as so often
the case, “This Time It’s Different” may have a time limit and copper may end up doing the
same as all the other industrial metals, after all.
While laying out the potential bear case for copper last weekend, we also stated that the
bottom line gauge for any fungible and freely traded industrial commodity is its market price, as
true for copper as it is for zinc, iron ore, pork bellies or frozen concentrated orange juice, Billy-
Ray. As long as copper retains its current trading range and doesn’t break down under
U$3.80/lb, I don’t think any emergency action on my various copper positions is necessary but,
if copper sinks, I’m not going to be holding a significant portion of my net wealth in copper
junors. Time will tell and with that done, we move on to our regular look at copper inventories
with data from Cochilco, as always.
 Another week of modest but indicative net gains in the aggregate copper inventories,
with the three official world systems last week adding 3,699 metric tonnes (mt) to close
Friday at 230,425mt. We know it’s tight out there and less than 4kmt added to the
world’s warehouses doesn’t change that, but there’s a small trend beginning to show.
 Another small drawdown at the SHFE, with inventories closing Friday at 134,919mt,
down 2.176mt on the week. Small stuff.
 The LME added another 5,875mt on the week and that means its warehouses have
added over 18,000mt in a fortnight, with this weekend’s total standing at 70,425mt.
Also and the same as last week, it’s the location of the additions which catches the eye
as 5,450mt went to LME Asia, making the two week total to South Korea, Malaysia abd
Taiwan combined at over 20,000mt. That wouldn’t happen if there were buyers
champing at the bit and desperate to get their hands on every tonne of copper
available.
 Comex copper stocks remained unchanged on the week, at 25,081mt. No biggie.
Just one of the dedicated SHFE charts today and the next ten weeks or so will decide whether
16

SHFE retains its image as the tightest of copper markets, or whether it becomes more typical of
the stock cycles we see in normal years.
SHFE copper inventory levels, 2018 to 2023
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
17
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
MT Cu 2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
source: Cochilco data
Now for some notes on some of our basket component stocks:
Oroco Resources (OCO.v): Three features in three weeks for a company I’ve covered too
much already and wanted to set aside for a while, but the announcement Wednesday on its
updated Mineral Resource Estimate (MRE) (12) needs some coverage. Here’s the main table
from the NR:
A lot of numbers, but the ones OCO wants us to consider are the indicated resource of 3.864Bn
lbs copper equivalent (CuEq) and the separate inferred
resource of 4.697Bn lbs CuEq, all at 0.36% CuEq and at a
cut-off of 0.15% CuEq. As this ten-day chart shows, the
reaction to the news was modestly positive and
temporarily repaired some of the self-inflicted damage
caused by the assay news SNAFU of the previous week(s)
but by Friday, the charm was already wearing off.
We’ll have a better parameter once OCO gives us the PEA
based upon this newly improved resource and that’s
scheduled for 3q23 (or perhaps the start of 4q23), but
there’s enough in the MRE last week to suggest that
economics will have to be “optimized” to truly sparkle. There’s nothing that screams numerical
massage, it’s more a sum of parts:
 Mining cost assumption of $2.25/tonne looks low, especially as we’re given little information
about assumed strip rates
 The 0.36% CuEq grade on 0.15% CuEq cut off using U$3.80/lb copper isn’t conducive to truly
meaty gross margins
 I’d like to know more about the choice of 50° pit walls, they cut costs considerably compared
to a 45° assumption at this stage
 We’re told around 10% of the pit shell resource is lost “under the river” (let’s say), which
makes one wonder how close these people would be able to mine to that river and what costs
of construction it might entail.
 Is that moly grade truly payable?
 Those things and more.

At a global 43-101 compliant total of 8.5Bn lbs CuEq, if we run the 85% ownership of the
resource and then subtract that 10% “for the river”, we get to OCO owning around 6.5Bn lbs
CuEq and at today’s market cap and CAD/USD forex, that’s almost exactly 2c/lb in-situ. That
sounds reasonable to me, all things considered. We’re now on course for a PEA and after that,
OCO will need to raise money and do at least a year of heavy lifting to get as much of those
inferred lbs into M+I so that they make the PFS. And let’s be clear, even if we’re generous and
call the likely margins Santo Tomas runs as “average” it’s going to take at least a PFS to find a
buyer to develop this deposit, a PEA using optimized criteria isn’t going to cut the mustard.
Hot Chili/Costa Copper (HCH.v): Down 9.1% on the
week in Canada, on the arb with its main listing Hot Chili
still has more to drop. Its AGM is scheduled for this week
and at some point, we’ll get news of the name change.
Atacama Copper (ACOP.v): Friday post-close and after
nine months of silence ACOP finally announced something;
a $300,000 non-brokered private placement priced at
18c/share, with no warrant attached. That’s a small total
won’t last the year, so presumably there will be more newsflow soon and then a another round.
The Producer Basket
After 18 weeks of 2023, the Producer Basket shows a gain of 22.75% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 47.20 799 38.93 48.72 3.2%
2 Barrick GOLD 17.18 1761.54 35.58 20.20 17.6%
3 Agnico Eagle AEM 51.99 488.9 29.24 59.81 15.0%
4 Wheaton PM WPM 39.08 451.963 23.54 52.09 33.3%
5 Kinross Gold KGC 4.09 1256.1 6.68 5.32 30.1%
6 Alamos Gold AGI 10.11 393.1 5.43 13.81 36.6%
7 B2Gold BTG 3.57 1074.567 4.43 4.12 15.4%
8 Hecla Mining GFI 5.56 603.86 3.70 6.12 10.1%
9 Eldorado Gold EGO 8.36 185.73 2.23 11.99 43.4%
10 Wesdome Gold WDOFF 5.53 142.287 0.97 6.79 22.8%
All prices and stock quotes in U$ Port. avg 22.75%
Our tracking of the senior producers again shows how money entered the sector from the top
down last week. Unlike the patchier performances among the juniors, all ten of our Producer
Basket stocks returned gains and aside Newmont (NEM up 2.8%), most of the bigboy stocks
improved by a number very close to the benchmark GDX and its 5.4% pop on the week. Our
basket average managed to take a couple of tenths out of the GDX’s lead over us thanks to the
bigger moves in the smaller basket stocks, namely Eldorado (EGO up 8.5%) and Wesdome
(WDOFF up 9.5%).
The 2023 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
comparative to GDX control
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
18
ts1naJ ht51 ht92 ht21 ht62 ht21 ht62 ht9 dr32 ht7yam
The 2023 Producer Basket: Percentage difference
between GDX benchmark & basket (negative = IKN ahead)
4.0%
3.5%
ikn 3.0%
gdx control 2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
source: NYSE, IKN calcs ts1naJ ht51 ht92 ht21 ht62 ht21 ht62 ht9 dr32 ht7yam
source: IKN calcs, NYSE data

Newmont and Newcrest (NEM) (NCM) Episode 354: I didn’t like the deal, when it started
I took the under on it happening, but as the weeks rolled on it became evermore obvious that
NEM and NCM would likely happen and I admitted as much through clenched teeth a couple of
weekends ago. And hey, I still don’t like the deal and think NEM has painted itself into a corner
where it’s forced to overpay for an acquisition that brings precious little in the way of true
synegries compared to the eventual size of the newco, but with last week’s news it now seems
inevitable. Here’s a Bloomie link (12a), here’s how it starts:
Newcrest Mining Ltd.’s board is prepared to recommend a takeover offer from
Newmont Corp. to its shareholders, interim chief executive officer Sherry Duhe said.
Newmont made a non-binding offer to buy Newcrest last month in a deal that valued
the Newcrest at A$29.4 billion ($19.5 billion). If successful, the deal would create by far
the world’s biggest gold miner, with sites in North and South America, Africa, Australia
and Papua New Guinea.
Newcrest opened its books to Newmont but initially stopped short of recommending
the deal. However, after conducting its own due diligence on Newmont, “the latest offer
is one that the board would be prepared to recommend subject to successful due
diligence during the period,” Duhe said Thursday at a conference in Sydney hosted by
Macquarie Group.
That Bloomberg report goes on to note that the
formal DD period agreed between the two parties
expires this Thursday, May 11th. At that point we
should get official confirmation from NCM’s board
of its decision to recommend the deal to its
shareholders (who are mostly on-baord with the
sweetened deal, according to most channels). The
only true hurdle left is to get the deal past NEM
shareholders and at this stage, with all cards on
the table and the slow progress of the deal leaving
little room for surprises now, the company is
highly likely to get the green light. What’s more,
the flaccid way in which NEM has traded YTD
(right) suggests that once the deal is
consummated New Newmont will attract a new
set of buyers in at the discounted price. There’s
clearly going to be appetite for the clear market
cap leader in the gold sector assuming the metal
continues its run and as every proponent of this
deal has been quick to point out, NCM comes with
plenty of current exposure and future
development with copper (and my, those big
miners suddenly like the idea of copper). As for
last week, the NEM under-performance continued
as seen in this ten-day chart compared to peers,
even Newcrest out-did it slightly.
Barrick Gold (GOLD): Here’s what Reuters reported on GOLD’s 1q23 numbers, last week (13)
May 3 (Reuters) - Canadian miner Barrick Gold Corp (ABX.TO) beat Wall Street
expectations for first-quarter profit on Wednesday, as higher prices of the metal
outweighed a decline in production.
Fact is, we knew the GOLD 1q23 production was weak because it was pre-announced three
weeks ago and we had a decent idea of its costs because partner Newmont (NEM) had reported
last week, so the report above re-hashed things we already knew in order to make a slight beat
on better costs than expected sound more of a thing than it was. However, GOLD did well
against its peers last week (blue line, above) and mostly because Mark Bristow appeared on a
dozen generalist channels, talked up gold’s importance, Barrick’s organic pipeline and promised
the world that its 2023 would get better by the quarter, with a slight improvement scheduled
for 2q23 and a significant hike in its production schedule in the second half of the year. In
19

essence, that approx 1% GOLD put on against GDX in the above chart was the power of
Bristow’s rhetoric and as 1% of GOLD’s market cap is around U$356m, the company is probably
getting a good deal on having him as a Bloomie talking head alone.
Wesdome Gold (WDOFF): Up 9.5% on the week, up 22.8% on the year and now in the
middle of the pack of our 2023 list, no stock on our list has benefited more from the return of
gold to U$2k/oz than WDO. It lagged the field by a long way after its disastrous start to 2023,
when in January its 4q22 production numbers came in light (once again), the Kiena ramp up
was moved back and its capex cost hiked and its erstwhile CEO Duncan Middlemiss “timed his
retirement” (after many months of discussions, apparently). WDO was still at -15% YTD at the
end of February and stone last on our list at the end of February when, in IKN719, we ran an
overview on the company after it filed its 4q22 financials. That ‘Market Watching’ note finished
in this way:
We’ll revisit WDO as a potential trade mid-year and see how it’s moved on its funding
intentions, we’ll also have a better idea as to whether Kiena will live up to its revised
timeline to full production in 2024. C$6 may seem cheap today but, if the market turns
against miners and WDO gives us a second year of failed guidances, there’s a lot of
downside left in the tank due to its burgeoning liabilities position. Watching and
waiting until risk subsides.
In other words, a trade I missed due to being a coward but as seen, the plan was always to
revisit WDO once there were a couple more quarters under its belt and we had a firmer idea of
how the delayed Kiena development was going (the key is to access the lower levels and higher
grade material in good order). The first of those is up next week as WDO is scheduled to file its
1q23 post-close on Wednesday May 10th, with the
conference call next morning (webcast link here (14)).
The basic reason this sub-$1Bn stock made it to this
year’s list was to keep closer tabs on its progress as it
shaped as a potential trade. As things have turned out,
another stock we considered in IKN719, Equinox Gold
(EQX), has jumped the queue and has my greater
interest now but, if Wesdome can confirm its revised
timeline on Kiena and show improvement in its
weakened balance sheet, there may still be a trade at
these prices. After all, the three-year chart shows there’s
still plenty of potential upside at C$9.06, you don’t have
to fish the absolute bottom in any stock in order to book
a winning trade.
The TinyCaps List
After 18 weeks of 2023, the TinyCaps show a gain of 36.00% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Aurelius Min AUL.v 0.07 49.787 1.24 0.025 -64.3%
Coast Copper COCO.v 0.045 64.001 3.20 0.05 11.1%
District Metals DMX.v 0.075 86.891 9.12 0.105 40.0%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.13 69.962 12.94 0.185 42.3%
Manitou Gold MTU.v 0.02 344.568 22.40 0.065 225.0%
Nine Mile Metals NINE.cse 0.29 57.025 15.40 0.27 -6.9%
Palamina Corp PA.v 0.08 65.285 11.10 0.17 112.5%
Precipitate Gold PRG.v 0.075 130.367 9.13 0.07 -6.7%
South Star STS.v 0.55 32.755 16.71 0.51 -14.5%
Viva Gold VAU.v 0.14 91.608 15.57 0.17 21.4%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 36.00%
20

This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $20m. They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a
little and allowed sub-U$20m market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, but it was a particularly depressing exercise to trawl through the whole of the TSXV and find companies
that are small enough, but with life in them. The vast majority of sub-$20m stocks are broken stocks, either
traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2023. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
Down 2.06% to close at exactly 36.00% up on the year,
TinyCaps, 2023 weekly tracker
there were just two winners on the week (DMX.v, 50%
MTU.v) and those were beaten soundly by four losers 45%
40%
(AUL.v, NINE.cse, PA.v, STS.v) including the 50.0% 35%
drop in Aurelius Minerals (AUL.v, see below for more). 30%
25%
The other four stocks on our list (COCO.v, LMS.v, 20%
PRG.v, VAU.v) were unchanged. 15%
10%
5%
Aurelius Minerals (AUL.v): The bad news got worse 0%
last week, in fact it entered the realm of farce. Not
content with a simple Management Cease Trade Order
(MCTO), the market authorities moved to place a full
CTO on AUL.v last week when the company admitted it
didn’t have enough money to cover its audit. That’s
somewhere between embarrassing and crazy, this
company was sponsored by big Toronto instos such as
Sprott RC and Northfield (and note that until recently,
Northfield’s CFO was on the AUL board). Its share price,
already down hard this year and down massively from
the numbers we followed in 2022 (let alone before that),
What’s been going on inside this company can only be
imagined.
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future
I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
Chile STOP PRESS: The result of the Constitutional assembly vote is big news for the
country’s politics and for the Chilean mining sector
I said at the top that this edition should be read as though it’s Sunday evening, but the news
out of Chile today is a must-comment so this gets added in as a “Monday Extra”. This weekend
saw Chileans go to the polls to vote on the make-up of the new body that will draft a new
Constitution, a second attempt to change the current Constitution on the back of the protests in
2021. Here’s how The BBC reported on the news this morning (15):
Chile constitution: Far-right party biggest in new assembly
The far-right Republican party has finished first in an election to choose the members
of the body tasked with drawing up Chile's new constitution.
The Republican party won 22 out of the 51 seats, with right-wing parties winning
another 11 seats.
21
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht7yam
source: IKN calcs, TSX data

So far so democracy, but this news has profound effects on the political make-up of Chile, it’s
very good news for its mining scene and yes, count Rio2 at Fenix among that call. To
understand why, there are three main things to understand:
1) Last September, Chileans rejected what would have been a Left wing (or “progressive”
if you prefer) draft Constitution, the one promoted by President Gabriel Boric and the
left-leaning Constitutional Assmbley that drew up the document.
2) The country’s government then looked for ways to move the process forward. At the
behest of the Boric executive (i.e. him), they decided on a national vote to form a new.
50 seat assembly that would create a new draft, then put it to the vote by national
referendum by the end of 2023.
3) Most expected the right wing to have a larger say in this new assembly, but the result
was much worse than that for Boric. With the Far Right Republican Party of José
Antonio Kast gaining 22 of the seats and the other mainstream Right Wing alliance
gaining 11, it gives the right over 60% of assembly votes, an automatic majority. In
essence, anything the right wing proposes will now be included in the draft Constitution
and perhaps equally as important, any proposal the right wing doesn’t like won’t even
make it to the debate stage, let alone make the draft for the national referendum this
December.
This result, which gives Kast control over the contents of the draft Constitution is the worst
case of all worst cases for Boric and even worse, it’s a political own-goal that makes him and
his advisors look politically naive. The President lost last September but then, instead of
deciding on some other mechanism to move the Constitutional debate forward (or simply
putting the whole idea on ice), he “went looking for problems” by offering a new vote to the
Chilean people. This weekend, Chileans used the opportunity as a quasi-referendum on his
government and its performance to date and the result is a massive loss. Not only has Boric lost
control of the Constitutional Assembly that will sit for the next five months and put forward
proposal after proposal that runs against his own government line, but it was his idea to do it
this way!
The political ramifications are profound. Regarding the Constitutional Assembly, the Right Wing
has all the power but it doesn’t mean the new draft will be pure Free Market Capitalism, this
assembly will be aware that it needs to deliver a draft acceptable to the Chilean people in an
up/down referendum vote (and José Antonio Kast, with obvious designs on the President’s job
himself in the next election, won’t want to be the cause of a failed process). So the assembly
will likely show some compromise towards the issues that set off the protests and search for a
new Constitution in the first place (education, health, policing, indigenous rights, etc) and we
may end up with a “non-controversial” new Constitution.
But what matters most of all is the clear rejection of Boric and his government line as seen in
this weekend’s result. Even before this weekend he was being called a traitor by the hard Left
wing via which he came to power but now that Left will turn against him wholesale, as he’s
delivered considerable direct power into the hands of his political enemies via a vote method
that he promoted as the best thing to do! The hard left has complained as his government
tracked to the political centre (see IKN Weeklies passim), those complaints from the Lefty rank
and file will only get worse as now, Boric has no choice but to track further to the centre,
perhaps even start bringing in true right wingers for ministry positions. It is this, his Presidential
credibility, that is the biggest loser from this weekend’s election and he’ll now be isolated in
power, unable to do what he wants and forced to become either a figurehead with no true
executive power, or one that compromises to the right wing in order to get some of his
preferred policy agenda through. In short, a classic lame duck President and that’s unlikely to
change for the next two and a half years. This isn’t just “the pendulum that swings” from right
to left, we’d already identified Lula’s victory in Brazil as the likely high water mark for the Left
wing in LatAm but this is more, it’s a self-inflicted defeat for Boric that has drained his
government of real credibility.
This is also strongly positive news for the country’s mining industry, of course. We know the
22

sudden change in attitude towards mining that came with the arrival of Boric last year and that
can only be rolled back from here. Any sort of new attempt at “ideological pushback” from the
Left will be an open invitation to attack and further wound the executive and President, so
expect the militant attitude toward permitting and suchlike to change quickly and “jobs
creation” become the order of the day (we should also recall Boric’s problems due to the
recession Chile now faces). There are of course many ways that will manifest, but as just one
example that’s close to the heart of this author and many of the IKN Weekly readership, the
likelihood that Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v) gets a positive result from its upcoming appeals process (the
hearing and vote likely at some point in June or July) has risen significantly. Even before this
weekend, this desk has been quietly confident of getting the right result from the Committee Of
Ministers appeals process, Rio2 has a strong case and has been doing the mitigation work
required, as well as plenty of behind the scenes legal beagling. The recent positive on the Los
Bronces permit appeal also runs in Rio2’s favour but this is adds a whole new reason to expect
Fenix to get its permits and move forward.
Chile: Two more mining things
And only one of them is about lithium. We’re two weeks on from the Chile lithium
announcement by President Gabriel Boric, the world is getting used to the idea of going into JV
with the State on its lithium growth projects and we’ve even had the CEO of Albemarle (ALB),
Kent Masters, pre-empting the subject by stating that his company was willing to sit down and
talk with Chile on a deal even though its current contracts run to 2043. Here’s Reuters (16):
"We've never said there's a hard no in renegotiating before 2043," Masters said in an
interview. "Post-2043, or after we renegotiate, the government will be involved,
probably as a partner. And we would anticipate even before that having the opportunity
to perhaps get even more rights for additional resources."
If that’s good for ALB, it’s certainly goo for SQM and its contract that expires on 2030. It’s also
how we envisaged the scenario in our main note two weekends ago, with companies willing to
do deals with Chile and go into minority JV, in return for access to its expansion projects in
other parts of the country. That same Reuters note places plenty of emphasis on “direct lithium
extraction (DLE)”, the method we touched upon in our main note and highlighted as a possible
bottleneck for Chile lithium growth plans. From the same note:
“While lithium for years has typically been produced using open-pit mines or
evaporation ponds, Boric's plan relies on the wide scale deployment of direct lithium
extraction (DLE) technologies that have so far never worked in commercial operations,
but which Albemarle and its peers are studying.”
So it was most interesting to read this Goldman Sachs report on DLE last week (TY reader DC),
available on this link (17). Here’s a part of its cover page:
Potential game changing technology: A number of proven DLE technologies are
emerging and being tested at scale, with a handful of projects already in commercial
construction. While there may still be challenges around scalability and water
consumption/ brine reinjection, with the ongoing efforts, DLE could be implemented
between 2025-2030 in both Chile and Argentina, in our view (compared with market
skepticism on development by 2030). We estimate on scenarios/benchmarking the
capital intensity range of DLE is comparable with a traditional pond project, where risk
of a higher upfront capital intensity is potentially offset by lower unit costs. We see NPV
breakeven for a DLE project (80%+ recovery) vs. a traditional pond (~50%) at opex of
<US$5,700/t (on GSe lithium prices), and look to our upcoming trip to Argentina to
affirm our analysis.
We know Chile’s “Green Government” will be very keen on using DLE instead of the current and
very water-intensive production method of pond evaporation, so hearing from the Vampire
Squid that there are fewer hurdles than imagined to commercial use for DLE is a boost for the
Boric plans and also for eventual deals with the private sector. However, we stress that the
reader always has the option of staying with the “Boo! Commies!” headlines, ignoring the more
subtle reality of Chile’s mining sector and missing out on the opportunity. That’s your call.
The second issue out of Chile last week shows another aspect of its nuanced mining scenario.
23

Hindsight and intelligence picked up since the recent positive permitting decision for the Anglo
American Loos Bronces expansion project tells this desk that mining company lobbied the
current finance (Hacienda) Minister and member of the “Comite de Ministros” appeals body,
Minister Mario Marcel, and got plenty of support for its cause from him. It was therefore
interesting to read this report (18) on the meetings Minister Marcel had in April with Lundin
Mining, Barrick and Los Andes Copper (LA.v), the latter being owners of the socially and
environmentally troubled Vizcachitas copper project. These official lobby meetings are public
knowledge and are documented by the Chilean government for all to see at the end of each
month, here’s a translation of the first part of the report on his meetings:
Mining matters were foremost on the lobbying agenda of the Minister of Finance
(Hacienda), Mario Marcel, during April. To those, meetings with WalMart and the
Association of Private Pension Funds (AFP) were also added.
The month began with a meeting with representatives of Minera Vizcachitas Holding,
local subsidiary of the Canadian mining company Los Andes Copper Ltd. The objective
of the meeting was to present to the Minister its project, which has an estimated
investment of U$2.8Bn and has had various hold-ups in development, mainly due to
the opposition from the local community of Putaendo, location of the project. In fact,
last September the company appealed to the Second Environmental Tribunal of
Santiago to lift the order placed on the company on March 18th that suspended its
drilling campaign in the Putaendo community, in Valparaiso region.
The project operates some 46km from the centre of Putaendo (San Felipe province)
and 120km from Santiago. “It is one of the most important copper districts in the world
and one of the biggest new copper deposits in The Americas,” said the company.
According to the firm, operations would take place at 1,950m above sea level, without
the presence of glaciers, and 24km from any residents in the community of Putaendo.
The zone hosts four of the largest producing copper mines in the world; Pelambres,
Andina Division, Los Bronces and El Teniente.
It is one of the new large scale discoveries in a country where the majority of mining
development is based on the expansion of existing mines. They mentioned that it is
located at a low altitude above sea level and due to that, does not disturb the high-
Andean natural life as well as any protected areas, priority conservation sites, wetlands
of glacier and is distant from residential areas.
“Our projections indicate the creation of approximately 5,000 jobs during the
construction phase and 1,300 direct jobs and around 3,000 indirect jobs during its
operation phase. This would generate unprecedented growth in the local, provincial
and regional economy”, stated the project description.
Lundin, Barrick and LA.v are clearly getting proactive and lobbying early with the desk they see
as most influential and positive to the cause of mining in the current government (aside the
Mining Minister herself, of course). In the cases of LUN and GOLD, the meetings were mostly
goodwill and part of ongoing exchanges on long-term plans but the case of LA.v at Vizcachitas
is the most interesting, as it is a particularly thorny social issue and the project has been
vehemently opposed by the local community for over a decade. The description as given to the
Minister and seen above did a good job of spinning the situation and cherry-picking data, but it
doesn’t change the fact that the project has been suspended due to significant environmental
concerns regarding both flora and fauna (The Andean Wildcat its high-profile concern), that the
location is in a historically significant valley and that the locals by sizeable majority and on
repeated occasions have stated they simply do not want thee mine built. In a Chile where local
community relations are foremost and the “prior consultancy” and community approval
documents vital to the progress of any project, Vizcachitas remains an easy pass.
The problem with The Fraser Institute
On May 4th the force was with The Fraser Institute as it published its “Annual Survey of Mining
Companies, 2022”. Find the cover note and links to the full report here (19) to get your own
copy, if you so desire. As the years have gone on, I’ve paid less and less attention to this
annual report, for three reasons:
 It seems to be published for the consumption of the generalist and political media more
24

than for its focus sector. Results are trumpeted/lamented in the featured countries,
political oppositions use its contents to criticize the sitting governments, for example it
garners “Peru is better for mining this year!” in the local press despite that country’s poor
position in the league table. Under Castillo, its low position was used as another stick for
the piñata. It’s good for a headline or three but once you get into its weeds, there’s more
heat than light. It has become, to use the modern parlance, clickbaity.
 It’s sourced from people with axes to grind and it’s impossible to remove the inherent
bias in responses.
 The “jurisdictions” used by Fraser continue to bemuse your author. For example, here’s
one of the results visuals taken from the LatAm summary section of the report:
Can anyone can tell me why Argentina gets split up into five separate districts and each one
judged accordingly, but Mexico doesn’t get the same treatment? Are they telling me Chiapas
Mexico is of equal risk to mining as Durango or Zacatecas? Or is South-East Colombia the same
as Antioquia for mining? As for a more prosaic query, one look at a map and the size of Brazil
compared to Argentina should raise a doubt or two about the methodology used.
Therefore, while Fraser Inst’s annual report can provide some basic guidelines you’d be wise to
take its position and findings with a pinch of salt.
Ecuador: Lasso catches a break
He’s still under enormous political pressure and it’s by no means guaranteed that he’ll remain as
President, but the news on Friday that was duly confirmed yesterday Saturday was in favour of
President Guillermo Lasso. Here’s Reuters (20):
QUITO (Reuters) - The oversight committee of Ecuador's National Assembly will
debate a draft report that concludes President Guillermo Lasso did not participate in
embezzlement and recommends against his impeachment, a lawmaker said on Friday.
Opposition politicians pushed for impeachment hearings on accusations Lasso turned a
blind eye to alleged embezzlement related to a contract between state-owned oil
transportation company Flopec and a private business.
The Committee will now hand its findings over to Congress, which is still likely to push ahead
with its own debate and vote, but with the CC ruling in Lasso’s favour Congress is less likely to
secure the 92 votes of 137 it needs to impeach the President and remove him. The CC ruling
also opens up a third option to resolve the current crisis and to avoid serious social protests or
conflict; If Lasso is removed, he would be replaced immediately by his Vice-President, Alfredo
Borrero,. Señor Borrero remains a staunch ally of Lasso and has said he doesn’t want to replace
the President, but would “if circumstances dictate.” If this option becomes reality, the CC ruling
theoretically allows Borrero the political space to form his own government and complete the
current mandate, instead of him calling new elections.
Bottom line: Ecuador is still very politically unstable this weekend, but Lasso has some more
25

equity and his chances of either him or his government surviving have improved. However, the
potential of serious social protests of the type we saw in 2022 hasn’t gone away and we will
have to see how the chips fall. Watching brief.
Peru: No news is good news
You may have noticed a lack of coverage of Peru’s political clownshow in recent editions. That’s
less due to a lack of interest or news flow, there’s the usual amount of craziness and scandal
going on in the country, but the Boluarte government’s decision to run the country in cahoots
with its despised and corrupt Congress has brought a level of calm to the outward proceedings
(and the lapdog media controlled by “The Lima Families” is doing its bit to serve the cause of
“stability”). However, it must be said that when it comes to the mining scene things are a lot
better and aside some isolated cases protests have subsided. The only mining news of worth
has in fact been positive, starting with the government’s new plan to improve permitting red-
tape by simplifying the process and relaxing some of the criteria required, particularly for
exploration-stage drilling. That would sound very good if it weren’t for the fact that a whole
succession of Peruvian governments (before Castillo’s, admittedly) promised the same thing but
bureaucracy just got worse rather than better. There’s also the recently announced (21)
inaugural edition of Peru’s “World Copper Conference: Expocobre 2023” (I Conferencia Mundial
de Cobre +Expo-Expocobre 2023) that takes place over four days starting May 29th. The event
may be new and a late arrival on the calendar, but it features heavy hitters from the world of
LatAm copper production with top brass from Las Bambas, Antapaccay, HudBay (Constancia)
and representatives from the big Chile copper mines. All very promo and another opportunity
for the industry to allay fears and try to convince the world Peru is back on track.
Finally, there are new rumblings about a new round of social protests beginning in several
provincial regions, which include rumours of another mass march that would start in provincial
zones and eventually descend on the capital city, probably in a July climax. There’s no doubt
that the Boluarte government is still very unpopular (79% disapproval ratings), there’s also no
doubt that Boluarte has entrenched and means to complete the full Presidential period (to June
2026), that alone is enough to ensure continued ill will. We’re also headed into one of the
typical “protest seasons” of the Peruvian calendar, the May-July period that coincides with a
drop in rural workload (harvests are in, planting comes after the winter chills, tourist don’t
arrive en masse until late July and August). As usual, anything can happen and probably will
but for the moment at least, no news is good news.
Market Watching
Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) 1q23 financials
In IKN726 dated April 16th we took a good look at the 1q23 production numbers of our main
copper trade, Amerigo Resources (ARG.to), in the main fundies section. That day we ended the
note with these words:
The bottom line: ARG has put in a solid 1q23 and doing what we expected from it.
Don’t expect a blowout quarter when the company files, but that’s okay because “in
line” is enough to see this stock price move higher.
That weekend the stock was at C$1.75, this weekend it’s C$1.51, which begs the obvious
question: What happened? The answer is here:
26

These days, ARG is a relatively straightforward company to cover and its exemplary level of
financial transparency allows the anal yst to get close (or even very close) to the numbers it will
file for any given quarter via its production and preliminary sales NR. So with ARG financials
largely understood for Q1 nearly a month ago and the way the price reacted positively to the
April 11th NR on a day when copper also rose, the strong and steady quarter that the company
filed last week (NR here (22)) was baked in. Instead and since that point, ARG has moved to
the vagaries of Dr. Copper and with the metal showing weakness in the last couple of weeks,
it’s not so surprising to see speculators take profit. And let us be clear, the drop in copper
prices does make a difference to the ARG story a prolonged period under U$4.00/lb would, in
theory at least, crimp the potential of a fat bonus dividend payout later this year. Today,
therefore, we’ll try not to repeat too much info found in IKN726 and while a couple of the
salient points need re-emphasis, I’ve made sure one thread of today’s note goes on a different
path, “stress tests” the current model shows the difference when we factor in a lower copper
price than our previous assumption of U$4.20/lb for the rest of 2023. The change in copper
prices from April to May demands some sort of recognition and ARG is a good place to start,
being the regular and solid producer that it is.
ARG: Gross Cu value, Cu revs and Revs total, per qtr
27
797.37
904.97
567.35 766.36 818.55
485.33
457.65 879.74
858.03
241.16 729.56 548.94 897.66 2.07 846.25 0.06 06
2.14
2.56 2.56
5.44
0.66 66
3.54
90
80
70
60
50
40 30
20
10
0
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 tse32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
U$m Cu gross value
Cu revs
Revs total
source: company filings
First the easy bits. We estimated top line revenues at U$51.4, they came in at U$52.648m
thanks mostly to a bonus score from the moly by-
product. As you can see from the moly tracker chart ARG: Mo credits
(right) we’re assuming that’s a one-off and future
quarters will return to an estimate U$5m for moly.
That, along with the drop in assumed received
copper prices from U$4.20/lb to a forward flat
U$4.00/lb takes between $3m and $4m from the
estimated top lines of the next three quarters at
ARG.
Son revenues came in around a million above our
model, but so did costs and once they’d cancelled
each other out, our gross profit guesstimate of
U$13.4m in IKN726 matched closely with reality, U$13.478m. Here’s the chart:
605.3
267.4 116.5 822.4
683.3 142.2 294.3
149.5
930.8
5 5 5
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 tse32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
U$m
source: company filings, IKN ests
ARG.to: Quarterly Earnings overview
624.12
616.1
655.3-
738.8
874.31
6.3
8.6 5.7
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20 15
10
5
0
-5
-10
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 tse32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
revenues
COGS
Gross profit

There was better to come, as the operating profit of U$13.44m for 1q23 (below) beat our
estimate by a handy U$1.6m, due to lower “other” than we’d assumed. However and as you
can probably make out without referencing IKN726, profits for the future quarters are now
guided lower due to the 20c/lb we’ve shaved off our copper price assumption, as well as some
adjustments for slightly higher costs (e.g. 1q23 smelting came in half a million more than
expected). I’m the first to admit these projections are most definitely to the conservative side
and we may see a different market evolve than my lower copper assumptions, but with copper
weak at the moment it seems prudent to “stress test” the model and show that even with lower
copper prices, Amerigo Resources works week as a long-term copper trade. Therefore…
 the previous 2q23 assumption of $7.4m in operating profits is down to $2.0m
today (with 2q23 expected to see lower production due to the programmed
downtime for annual scheduled maintenance, timed to coincide with that of
its feed supplier El Teniente)
 the previous 3q23 assumption of $8.3m in operating profits is down to $5.1m
today
 the previous 4q23 assumption of $8.5m in operating profits is down to $5.5m
today
ARG.to: Gross, operating and net profits, per qtr
28
10.12
74.1- 41.5- 10.1-
44.31
00.2
01.5 05.5
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 tse32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
U$m Gross profit
op profit
Net Income
source: ARG data
Those are the GAAP compliant numbers but as we know ARG is a cash flow story, we again run
our real world margin chart to show the money ARG will have to play with in 2023 under our
new and lower copper price assumption.
ARG: The real world margin
33.21
97.71 24.02 93.22 79.61 15.22 49.52
95.3 20.0-
57.51 34.81 01.7
02.01
06.01
30
25
20
15 10
5
0
-5
02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 tse32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
U$m
source: ARG data, IKN calcs and ests
First up, please note that the 1q23 result of $18.43m beat our $16.9m forecast nicely. But the
next three quarters are lower by $5.4m, $3.2m and $3m respectively compared to IKN726.
Again, we stress these figures veer on the side of caution and the reader should consider them
a baseline with copper at $4.00/lb, not as a best-case scenario.
Moving to the boring old balance sheet, the 1q23 numbers were the standard continuation of
the main overview charts so I simply present them and move on to the liquidity charts, more
interesting and worthy of future quarter projections.

ARG.to: Working capital
29
884.11
608.71 565.12
236.42
494.43
209.01
58.6
79.9
806.21 71
5.12
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 tse32q2 tse32q3
ARG.to: Total Assets
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Despite the continued 3c/qtr standard dividend, our solid confidence about the ARG buyback
reducing the share count to around 155m by the end of this calendar year and the sustaining
capital works budgeted by ARG, we still expect cash treasury and working cap to grow as the
year rolls out even if copper only averages U$4.00/lb, rather than our previous benchmark of
U$4.20/lb. Cash was U$43.9m as at end 1q23 and should breach the $50m line by 3q23.
U$m
source company filings
As for the coveted bonus divi and its prospects, this working cap chart is my idea of the best
indication to what we can expect. We know ARG has no liquidity issues and can deplete
working cap to fairly low levels (its cash position makes it liquid) and while the 3q22 number
went lower than even the company expected last
year due to the slump in copper prices to under
U$3.20/lb, seeing it drop working cap back at
$10m or so by the end of 2023 would be neither
surprise nor worry. So for my money, ARG has
around U$12m to play with for the bonus section
of its distribution policy this year and allows a
reasonable estimate of between 8c and 10c
Canadian for the promised bonus dividend.
For context on that, we return to our flexible and
moveable dividend +spread table, factor in two
columns for a total 20c/year and 22c/year dividend (i.e. 4x 3c standard quarterly dividends,
plus either 8c or 10c bonus) and do the math:
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
ARG.to: Liabilities Breakdown per qtr
200
cash&eq Trade/Rec
Inventory other current 180
fixed 160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
LT liab
current liab
ARG.to: Cash and ST
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 tse32q2 tse32q3
$m
source: company filings
ARG.to: Shares Out
190
185 (NB: cut down Y-axis)
180
175
170
165
160
155
150
145
140
71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 tse32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
source: company filings, IKN ests
serahs
fo
snoillim

Amerigo (ARG.to): Dividend Yield Percentage Spread Table
Share Dividend per year (Cad Dollar Cents)
price CAD$ 12 15 20 22 25
1.00 12.00 15.00 20.00 22.00 25.00
1.25 9.60 12.00 16.00 17.60 20.00
1.50 8.00 10.00 13.33 14.67 16.67
1.75 6.86 8.57 11.43 12.57 14.29
2.00 6.00 7.50 10.00 11.00 12.50
2.25 5.33 6.67 8.89 9.78 11.11
2.50 4.80 6.00 8.00 8.80 10.00
2.75 4.36 5.45 7.27 8.00 9.09
3.00 4.00 5.00 6.67 7.33 8.33
source: ARG data, IKN estimates
At current prices, this estimated total dividend for 2023 would mark yield at between 13% and
14.5%, which is simply massive for this type of company. Note that even if ARG gets up to the
type of C$2.25 share price that I firmly believe it capable of reaching this year, it will still yield a
juicy 9% to 10%.
Bottom line: ARG.to is off in the last three weeks due to the near-term weakness in the copper
price, but long-term investors such as this desk shouldn’t worry too much about that. The
business is delivering 100% on its model and while 1q23 came in very much as expected and
without surprises, that’s no bad thing. To be totally selfish, as I’m currently full on ARG (in fact
overweight) and not in the market for any more shares I’d like to see the market price improve
again and reach the type of $2.00+ levels I believe it justifies and deserves, but if you’re in the
market for cheap copper equity at this time you could do a lot worse than open or add ARG at
these current levels. I wish they were all this good, I wish they were all this easy to track.
More time required for Equinox Gold (EQX)
First floated as an idea in IKN719 when the stock was at its low price ebb, in “Marking cards on
Equinox Gold (EQX) (EQX.to)” last week we previewed the EQX 1q23 financial results and
ended by stating that, by this weekend, I’d have a decision on whether to open and take a
position in the company. As things turned out (23), the 1q23 financials were well received by
the market…
…guidance for 2023 was good and importantly, the company remains bullish on the
development at Greenstone, with everything on time and budget track (no mean feat in today’s
macro backdrop). However I’m going to defer my decision until next weekend for three
reasons:
1) The same issue that stopped this edition from publication at its normal time Sunday
evening also crimped my time dedicated to EQX last week.
2) The 1q23 results were far enough away from my own model to doubt my numbers to
date. I don’t feel comfortable with my DD so far and want to better understand the
company, rather than just dive in on a top-down bet.
3) I don’t have much money available. Normally this wouldn’t worry me too much, but in
the case of EQX its size and relative importance, if adopted as a trade, means it would
30

need ore than just a “foothold” purchase to be a credible member of the list. As things
stand my portfolio does have its usual slice of emergency cash available but that’s not
going to get used here (I see no emergency) and while I plan to raise some cash by
selling Chesapeake Gold (CKG.v) in the next few days, that’s small money. And before
you ask, I never use margin. Therefore, a meaningful purchase of EQX also means I’d
need to sell something else and that adds an extra issue to the call.
I know you get bored with hearing it, but The IKN Weekly stock positions run on the “least
worst” method of what I’m doing with mine, eating one’s own food, or whatever else. It’s not a
perfect situation and at times like this, I’ll defer for a while because…well, just because I want
to. And it’s my money. The time crimp this weekend didn’t help, but above all I want to go
deeper on the company and consider each of its assets in some more detail (there are eight
that matter) before coming to a proactive decision. It can wait another week.
Conclusion
IKN729 is done, we end with bullet points:
 Still leery and somewhat undecided about the way copper is looking today. Medium and
long-term no worries, the near-term is the thing. I’ll remain on a watching brief as long
as it stays above U$3.80/lb and will wish it higher in the days to come, but that’s about
all I have today.
 Gold is looking positive all of a sudden, however. The Fear Trade still has legs and if the
dollar goes into reverse, bullion is in the right place. All that and Wesdome (WDO.to)
reporting this week.
 Equinox deep dive in IKN730. Will happen.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stock is Minera Alamos (MAI.v). Flash
updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best wishes, Mark
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(a) https://iknnews.com/the-ikn-weekly-is-delayed-by-one-day/
(1) https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/05/schedule-for-week-of-may-7-2023.html
(2) https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/05/april-employment-report-253-thousand.html
(3) https://mineraalamos.com/news/2023/2022-year-end-financials-and-operations-update/
(4) https://chesapeakegold.com/chesapeake-gold-initiates-legal-proceedings-related-to-san-vicente-3-concession/
(5) https://ceo.ca/gshr?eff7219e5810
(6) https://ceo.ca/gshr?6feab48cc7fe
(7) https://abrasilver.com/news-releases/abrasilver-drilling-intersects-320-metres-at-580-gt-ageq-in-oxides-further-
enhancing-high-grade-mineralization-at-the-jac-zone
(8) https://aldebaranresources.com/news-releases/2023/aldebaran-receives-6-million-from-warrant-exercise/
(9) https://www.cochilco.cl/Paginas/Sala-de-Prensa/Noticias.aspx?ID=622
(10) https://www.cochilco.cl/Presentaciones/Informe%20trimestral%20Q1%202023.pdf
(11) https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/Commodities/Copper-loses-shine-for-investors-on-China-s-mixed-
31

recovery
(12) https://orocoresourcecorp.com/news/oroco-announces-santo-tomas-mineral-resource-estimate
(12a) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-03/newmont-s-duhe-says-board-is-prepared-to-recommend-
newmont-bid
(13) https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/barrick-beats-quarterly-profit-estimates-higher-prices-2023-05-03/
(14) https://edge.media-server.com/mmc/p/zcqburxt
(15) https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-65524068
(16) https://finance.yahoo.com/news/albemarle-aims-lithium-tech-chile-154222940.html?
(17) https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/pages/direct-lithium-extraction.html
(18) https://www.latercera.com/pulso-pm/noticia/proyecto-minero-vizcachitas-barrick-y-nuevos-controladores-de-mina-
caserones-en-la-lista-de-reuniones-por-lobby-que-tuvo-marcel-en-abril/44G4ACASMNHGHJO4NZQVP5KOA4/
(19) https://www.fraserinstitute.org/studies/annual-survey-of-mining-companies-2022
(20) https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2023-05-05/ecuador-committee-report-does-not-recommend-lasso-
removal-lawmaker-says
(21) https://www.serperuano.com/2023/05/gobierno-peruano-oficializa-la-realizacion-de-expocobre-2023/
(22) https://amerigoresources.com/_resources/news/nr_20230411.pdf
(23) https://www.equinoxgold.com/news/equinox-gold-reports-first-quarter-2023-financial-and-operating-results/
(24)
(25)
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2022
Closed in 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
Goldshore Res GSHR.v Nov'22 C$0.18 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 88.9% Quick profit taken
Palamina Corp PA.v Dec'22 C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.08 -72.9% Clear-out of underperformer
Pure Gold PGM.h Dec'22 C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.015 -89.3% tiny trade on vh risk, went Ch11
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Set-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
32

Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
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Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
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HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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