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The IKN Weekly
Week 726, April 16th 2023
Contents
This Week: Trade heads up, In Today’s Edition, Gold around two thousand.
Fundamental Analysis: Updating on two of our main copper trades: SolGold (SOLG.to)
(SOLG.L) and Amerigo Resources (ARG.to).
Stocks to Follow: Western Exploration (WEX.v), Goldshore Resources (GSHR.v), AbraSilver
Resource Corp (ABRA.v), Minera IRL (MIRL.cse), Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v), Newcore Gold (NCAU.v),
Faraday Copper (FDY.to), QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v).
Copper Basket: Overview, Kodiak Copper (KDK.v), Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.to), Oroco
Resources (OCO.v), Western Copper & Gold (WRN.to), Atacama Copper (ACOP.v),
Producer Basket: Overview,
TinyCaps Basket: Overview, South Star Battery Metals Corp (STS.v), District Metals (DMX.v).
Regional Politics: Brazil: Lula meets Xi, Chile: CESCO this week, Chile’s SEA, its working week
and the mining sector, Ecuador: Opposition to mining works, Mexico: A brief update on the
mining reform law bill, Argentina: Polling and geopolitics.
Market Watching: Deferred.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
In Today’s Edition
 Copper continues to run well and in that light, today’s main fundies section features
two of our current best ideas for trades. Amerigo (ARG.to) announced its production
and sales for 1q23 last week and we explain why the numbers were good, while
SolGold (SOLG.to) SOLG.L) is still up for sale, but we may have to wait until May and
clarity on the national political scene for President Lasso before the first offer comes in
and starts the ball rolling.
 Last week’s feature company Western Exploration (WEX.v) is still gearing up its
financing round and as a result, last week’s trading was thin. Now is the time to
position, not to run the price up.
 Today’s Producer Basket features Newmont and Newcrest (again) as well as a set of
lacklustre production numbers from Barrick (GOLD) in 1q23. All the same, it may be the
time to consider Barrick as a Tier 1 purchase.
 This desk remains unconvinced that gold is about to move into new price highs.
Today’s intro picks up on the argument first floated in IKN722, moved forward in
IKN723 and 725, then takes it another nine yards. Hopefully, no punting after this.
 And other things too. As always, there are other things.
Gold around two thousand
Due to an editorial glitch (basically a “short between the ears”, as old-time electricians would
say) a piece of last week’s intro script on page 4 got hidden behind the CPI chart. As the CPI
reading turned out to be the key moment of the week, let’s run the missing segment here to
begin the post mortem. We wrote:
1

“…the US CPI reading that is currently running a consensus forecast +5.2%
this weekend. As The Fed wants inflation to exit 2023 at or around the +3.5%
range in order to target 2% come 2025 (again, Mester dixit Tuesday) but we
can argue the toss about those longer-term projections another day. What
matters now is sentiment for the next few weeks, not years, and unless CPI
drops more than expected, the market will swing again toward at least one
more Fed rate hike and the soft landing
US Consumer Price Inflation (CPI)
fantasies for the US economy will be
out the window again.”
As it happens, the headline CPI number came
in at 5.0% and here’s the updated chart and for fun and education, there’s also that December
2023 3.5% column sketched in on the right, to
give the mind’s eye something to play with:
With the benign CPI reading in the books, gold
reacted positively and for a while, scraped at
the U$2,050/oz level last week before Thursday and Friday brought sellers. All the same, it’s
very difficult for proponents of gold as an investment to complain about this price chart:
So on the one hand, the trend over the last month or so is most definitely our friend. However
and on the other, this desk has no intention of changing the current call for gold to bounce
around U$2,000/oz for a while and, considering the way the price has touched through the $2k
line six times in the last four weeks, there’s mounting evidence for that as well including the
drop on Friday, driven by buying of the USD that affected all the metals (silver, copper, etc).
The Friday adjustment came long after the CPI and the even more timid PPI number on
Thursday, so it’s fair to presume we need look for the reason in another place and it fits with
another of the reasons floated in last week’s note, that Black Swans are not easy bets. Betting
on higher gold is betting that the “financial system” (in all its mysterious glory) is going to hit
more problems, cause crises and lose the confidence of the biggest of the big money, the sums
that prop up the whole system by owning the safe haven positions. For gold to catch a bid
against the main safe haven, US T-Bills and Bonds, we’ll need evidence that said paper is
unreliable or less trustworthy than it’s made out to be and for that, we’re going to need some
sort of crisis. The Fed knows this, as does its brand new BFF and supporter Treasury Secretary
Janet Yellen (who’s doing the rounds as little more than a souped-up voting member of Jay
Powell’s team at the moment). Take this interview, published yesterday, as a crystal clear
example of what Team USA (or perhaps more accurately, Team USD) is looking to achieve (1):
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told CNN’s Fareed Zakaria
“I do think there’s a path to bring down inflation while maintaining what I think all of us
would regard is a strong labor market,” Yellen said. “And the evidence that I’m seeing
2
4.1 7.1
6.2
2.4
0.5 4.5 4.5 3.5 4.5 2.6 8.6 0.7 5.7 9.7 5.8 3.8 6.8 1.9 5.8 3.8 2.8 7.7 1.7 5.6 4.6 0.6
0.5
5.3
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0 4.0 3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
12'naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 22'naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 32'naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced
source: U.S. BLS

suggests we are on that path.”
She added: “Are there risks? Of course. I don’t want to downplay the risks here, but I
do think that’s possible.”
And…
“Americans should note that America has a safe, strong banking system,” she said.
“Our banking system is well capitalized and liquid, and the problems that a couple of
banks faced — this is not a general problem throughout the banking system. We took
steps to make sure that depositors feel that their savings are safe, and the tools that
we used to do that are ones that we could and would use again if difficulties in a single
bank or a couple of banks were to create a risk of contagion to the system.”
Banks are likely to be “somewhat more cautious” in their operations and, as a result,
could lead to reining in credit availability. Fed officials have noted that credit tightening
could assist in efforts to cool inflation.
For what it’s worth I’m no fan of CNN but have plenty of time for Fareed Zakaria, there’s no
need to throw out babies with bathwater. And Yellen’s performance (there’s no other word) is a
strong reminder of who their audience is, something we laid out in the intro note “The
Confidence Man” in IKN722, dated March 19th. You madam and you sir, IKN Weekly readers
and financially insightful audience, YOU ARE NOT THE FED’S AUDIENCE. They don’t care about
you or your opinion, in IKN722 as in IKN726 today they are looking to shore up confidence in
two sets of people:
 The grassroots consumer wants reassurance that her/his money is safe and available.
That their credit card will work no problems. That the 401k isn’t about to explode.
 The sophisticated banking executive wants a clear pathway out of this mess. If Jay
Powell provides one, they have far too much at stake to start turning their collective
backs on the very core of the world’s financial system. It’s too late for rebellion.
With SVB and a couple of other regional bank
implosions now in the rear view mirror, those at the
top are keen on spreading the word that there’s
nothing wrong with the financial system in all its
mysterious glory so both Main St and Wall St can go
back to business as usual. And buy those bonds. And
keep the USD Dollar at the top of the pile. And make
sure gold doesn’t catch too much of a bid.
Will it work? Well maybe, but even if the Fed “has
got the banks’ backs” and is ready to cover any
illiquidity event in the financial system in all its
mysterious glory, that doesn’t preclude Black Swans
popping up in other places. For example this FT report last week makes interesting reading (2):
Corporate America is facing its sharpest drop in profits since the early stages of the
coronavirus pandemic, according to Wall Street forecasts, as high inflation squeezes
margins and fears of an impending recession hold back demand.
Companies on the S&P 500 index are expected to report a 6.8 per cent decline in first-
quarter earnings compared with the same period a year earlier, according to analyst
estimates compiled by FactSet. That would be the biggest fall since the more than 30
per cent plunge in the second quarter of 2020, which came as the rapid spread of
Covid-19 led to a widespread economic shutdown.
And…
“Since recent bank failures happened in the last few weeks of the quarter, the full
impact won’t register in first quarter reports,” Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in a note
to clients.
But the failure of three banks this year could put pressure on small and medium-sized
businesses for the rest of 2023, according to Ablin.
Unlike large companies that have “pretty much unfettered access” to capital, “I think
the middle and small companies will likely be increasingly disadvantaged by tightening
credit,” he said.
The other angle about corporate profits is how the Fortune 500 companies have been so keen
3

on stock buybacks during the ZIRP and near-ZIRP period, often accessing dirt cheap debt in
order to fund the share buybacks that have propelled their equity prices higher. With interest
rates now climbing, servicing welter debt burdens becomes more difficult and as banks
withdraw credit availability, this is another place which may show systemic weakness as Q1
becomes Q2. However and for the moment, this may be a case of “bears seeing further into the
future” and until the music stops, the market participants will keep dancing. It may be
structurally weak, but until further notice the bull market is still in place with the Yellens and
Powells of this world doing the rounds and assuring the general public that All Is Fine, gold isn’t
going to get the new push it requires to break higher. Until it does, of course.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Updating on two of our main copper trades
The release of the 1q23 production numbers Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) early last week made
our largest and most recommended copper trade the obvious subject for this weekend’s main
event. However, for one thing (TL:DR) there’s nothing untoward about the ARG numbers and
for another, we’ve done this type of production update so many times it gets a little samey so
the leaven the ennui, this week’s main fundies section also features another of our copper
trades and gives guidance on what we can expect from the negotiation and eventual sales
process for SolGold Plc (SOLG.to) (SOLG.L).
SolGold (SOLG.to) (SOLG.L) update
In the main fundies note “SolGold Plc (SOLG.L) (SOLG.to): Buying” from IKN718 dated February
19th, we opened coverage on SolGold (SOLG.L) (SOLG.to) and your author announced his
intention to buy shares. That weekend SOLG in its main London listing was priced at 13p and
this weekend, it’s at 21.4p, an improvement of 66.2% in a little under two months.
I wish they all did that.
On a personal level, I’ve bought a couple of times since then and via the company’s second-
string Canadian listing (SOLG.to), so my cost average now stands at 26.5c Canadian and with
Friday’s close of C$0.385, the paper profit is still good without being the same eye-popping
percentage. But that’s my problem, not yours.
Anyway, it’s fair to say the trade is working and these two charts give a rough idea of the price
dynamics that have gone in our favour to date. Below left is a 12 month comparative to the
main copper producer ETF (COPX) and the red area shows where, in our view, the stock price
came under sustained shorting pressure from those who would prefer to keep SOLG under their
corporate control for as long as possible without having to commit to a purchase. That’s a long
way of saying “BHP and Newcrest”. Then below right the YTD price chart and where we opened
coverage. It came at the time “Team Mather/Maxit” had just wrested de facto control away
from “Team BHP/NCM” and there was reasonable grounds to expect an improvement, but rare
indeed are the times when you get the timing exactly right, that part is plain straight luck.
4

The game plan for this SOLG trade is therefore working and we’ve seen a few other corporate
moves since then that indicate our scenario, which presumes SOLG under Team Mather/Maxit
will do as they desire and find a buyer in the near future (probably Chinese capitals). However,
exact timing is a tough one to estimate and we’ve also seen a clear uptick in the political risk in
Ecuador, location of the SOLG assets and particularly, the Alpala/Cascabel project upon which
all valuations depend. This brings up the subject of today’s update, because I’ve made no
bones about two facts that, prima facie, seem contradictory:
 I like SOLG as a trade at the moment
 I do not like Ecuador political risk for mining companies at the moment
It smacks of trying to thread the needle on the political risk by going long SOLG and warning
you off most other mining stocks in the country, so qhat follows is an attempt to explain why
it’s possible to stay bearish on Ecuador in general while retaining the belief the company is on
the way to being sold to the highest bidder. This is mainly a political argument and we’re not
going to repeat all the information from last week’s extended note on the state of play in
Ecuador’s political scene, “The trials of Guillermo Lasso”, but if you want to check it out without
opening IKN725 I also put it on the open blog last week (by demand, reader RS knows why and
thank you, sir). Find it here (3) and from the note, the repeat today are the bullet points:
There are nuances and variants for sure, but your three basic scenarios as from
around next month are:
 Lasso’s impeachment case is recommended to continue by the CC. The process goes
to Congress, the debate and vote happens, he is almost certainly impeached and
voted out of office.
 Lasso’s impeachment case is recommended to continue by the CC. Before the
Congress debate starts Lasso invokes the called Muerte Cruzada/Crossfire Death
mechanism and rules by decree for six months, with national presidential and
congressional elections brought forward to this time next year
 Lasso’s impeachment case is NOT recommended to continue by the CC. This would
spark immediate protests across the country in the style outlined last week, with a
first set of national marches followed by a second and larger protest at some point,
with enormous pressure put on Lasso to resign.
IKN726 back and in light of these three general scenarios, we now take up the SOLG cause.
Ecuador is just like any other country and there’s no one-size-fits-all explanation for its political
and social risk, especially compared with other mining projects. For example…
…we know Solaris (SLS.to) Warintza is outright hated and unwelcome.
…we know the La Loja/El Oro valley and region bases its entire economy on gold mining
…we know the social protests against the Dundee (DPM.to) Loma Larga/Quimsacocha have
been as effective via the courtroom as they have been on the ground
…we know mining companies are not welcome in the Intag locality
…we know China has managed to force through Mirador into production despite heavy
protests over time
…we know Lundin Gold’s (LUG.to) Fruta del Norte mine has been a resounding success
since LUG took over and rescued it, after Kinross threw its money down the drain
All those and more, indeed we can even use the examples mentioned by the Ecuador Chamber
of Mining at its presser this week (4):
The affected projects include Canada’s Adventus Mining Corp’s Curipamba copper-
gold development, Atico Mining Corp’s gold-rich La Plata project, and Dundee
Precious Metals Inc’s Loma Larga copper-gold development.
More on that in “Regional Politics” below, but we’re left with a complex and mixed bag of
political/social risk in Ecuador that easily confuses the casual observer (and, while we’re here,
lets promoters and pumpers pick and choose the information they want prospective sponsors to
believe). That’s the background, now we re-focus on SolGold and to start, it was telling that the
5

company’s main gig, Cascabel/Alpala, didn’t get a mention at last week’s Chamber of Mining
presser. That’s not a bad thing and it points to one of the advantages of the project. For sure
it’s not all sweetness and roses, but the zone and region around Alpala is not dominated by
indigenous political groups, it’s not ecologically sensitive jungle (Warintza) or delicate wetlands
(Loma Larga), either. What’s more, the corporate CSR outreach has done well, trhe local
population has come to appreciate the economic advantages of having a high-spending
exploreco on its doorstep and while it’s still patchy and protests have sprung up over its history,
the micro-region around Alpala is majority supportive of the project. So at the grassroots level
and without claiming it to be perfect, Alpala is in reasonable shape on CSR/ESG. To that, we
add the macro backdrop in Ecuador by considering the following:
 We know that Team Mather/Maxit wants to sell SolGold (or at least Cascabel/Alpala) to
the highest bidder
 We know they are courting Chinese capitals, we also know that after its strategic
investment China’s Jiangxi Copper (Hong Kong) Investment Company Limited is front-
runner.
 We know that President Guillermo Lasso survives his current pressure, China would be
happy enough about dealing with a pro-mining administration
 We also know that if Guillermo Lasso falls, Chinese capitals would not be worried about
an Ecuador government under Rafael Correa (or his dauphin). We know that because
China did plenty of deals with Correa the last time around and his connections to
Chinese sponsorship are well-established.
In the unlikely circumstance that Lasso made it through his current impeachment process
without any social upset, China would be ready to deal with Ecuador. Equally, if Lasso falls via
either impeachment or the self-inflicted “Muerte Cruzada/Crossfire Death” constitutional
mechanism that would take six months, Chinese capitals would have a clarity on the political
future and comfortable about the upcoming administration (again, likely under Correa).
However, what China doesn’t like is uncertainty and that’s still in the air. We’re in April, May is
likely to be showtime in the country and until then doubts are in the air. After that, there’s still
the potential that Ecuador’s Constitutional Court (CC) stop the impeachment process and allow
Lasso to remain in power. That scenario would set off another serious round on social protests
this year and the type of backdrop that would put off a deal or further investment until things
clam again. That’s where we are today, the prelude to a likely rough and choppy month of
politics in May 2023 in Ecuador in which anything could happen.
Until there’s some sort of resolution on the national political situation we should expect Chinese
capitals not to commit to the country. The implication is that here, in April, we’re going to have
to wait at least a few more weeks. If the future becomes more predictable and Lasso decides to
use Muerte Cruzada or falls from impeachment, this desk would expect Chinese capitals to be
keen on seizing the moment. That’s also true if he gets to stay without any new round of social
protest, but until that happens there’s no reason to expect a deal.
The bottom line: If Lasso falls, potentially as soon as next month, consider it a catalyst to a
deal on SolGold. That means we have a few weeks to wait and watch as the national political
soap opera plays out but when it does, this desk firmly believes that SOLG will be in-play.
Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) 1q23 production and update
On Tuesday April 11th we got the 1q23 production numbers from our main copper investment,
Amerigo Resources (ARG.to), as well as the other
data this exemplary company almost always offers
in its pre-filing NR (8). We’ve been here several
times before so you’re not getting any extended
intro or overly stuffed narrative today, we’ll save
those for when ARG gets beaten up at market and
sees its stock price sink unfairly on the back of
larger sector tides. Instead, with copper continuing
6

to trade over U$4.00/lb and the company share price continuing to improve (see chart right)
we’ll try to get this look at the latest ARG quarter done as concisely as possible, more visuals
and less blather. We begin.
ARG.to: Copper sales
Copper production of 16.52m lbs and sales
(chart right) of 16.49m lbs was a welcome and
slight beat on our 16.2m lb estimate. We make
no changes to our 2023 forecasts, though
remind readers that although we guide above
the official company estimates there’s room to
get beaten, particularly if things go well in the
second half of the year. The production split
once again favoured the fresh tailings coming
directly from its supplier, the massive El
Teniente mine (DET) owned by Codelco. Below
left shows how 10.14m lbs copper was produced from the fresh tailings supply in 1q23, while
6.38m lbs came from the legacy tailings. Below right (and NB on the cut-down Y-axis) we see
the interesting and gradual improvement in fresh tailings grades from DET, which along with
the relative simplicity and lower cost of supply must be a factor in ARG’s strategic decision to
lean harder on the fresh tailings side.
So that’s the production, now for some dollar numbers and please recall that ARG.to reports in
US Dollars, our default currency today (aside the share price). We know ARG averaged received
price for copper in 1q23 was U$4.02/lb because they told us, that makes the estimated Q1
gross copper sales value U$66.3m. We then assume the fair value adjustment from previous
quarters (as the price of copper increases and previous quarter deliveries are settled at higher
prices) to be around U$4m, which gets us to overall revenues of an estimated U$780.3m for
the quarter.
We then subtract the charges to gross copper revenues (mainly the DET royalty, but also
smelting, refining and transport) and add back the molybdenum by-product credit. That’s
estimated to come in at a bonus U$6.5m this quarter (we return to a flat U$5m for the quarters
to come as the moly price spike has worn off).
7
28.11 7.31
29.41 9.51 11.51 31.51 9.61 298.61 92.61 68.41 81.61 97.61 94.61
51
3.61 5.61
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1 tse32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
source: company filings
rtq/uC
sblM
ARG: Production breakdown by source, per qtr
74.8
30.7
16.7
73.7
73.7
26.8
46.7
62.9
68.6
16.9
97.5
31.9
73.7
36.8
52.6
63.01
83.6
41.01
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6 4
2
0
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1
Mlb Cu MVC: head grades by source
Cauquenes tailings 0.30%
Fresh tailings 0.28%
0.26%
0.24%
0.22%
0.20%
0.18% 0.16%
0.14%
0.12%
0.10%
source: company filings
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1
Cu grade Cauquenes grade
Fresh grade
source: ARG filings
ARG: Cu gross value, per qtr
1.85 6.66 0.27 6.27 8.37 7.36 8.65 1.16 3.66 0.36 5.86 3.96
80
70
60
50
40 30
20
10
0
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 tse32q1 tse32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
U$m ARG: Gross Cu and fair value adjustments, per qtr
source: company filings, IKN ests
857.4
768.2-
146.2 216.5 948.7- 677.8-
587.4
4 3 0 0
90
80
70
60
50
40 30
20
10 0
-10
12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 tse32q1 tse32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
U$m
Fair value adj
Cu revs
source: company filings

After all that, we get to an estimated total revenues of U$51.4m for the 1q23 period as seen
below. Compared to previous analyses there are some minor adjustments to the other 2023
quarter estimates as well, but nothing too big.
ARG: Gross Cu value, Cu revs and Revs total, per qtr
8
797.37
904.97
567.35 766.36 818.55
485.33
457.65 879.74
858.03
241.16 729.56 548.94 3.66 3.07
4.15
0.36 66
1.64
5.86 5.86
8.74
3.96 3.96
6.84
90
80
70
60
50
40 30
20
10
0
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 tse32q1 tse32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
U$m Cu gross value
Cu revs
Revs total
source: company filings
That U$51.4m number is what goes into the top line of the P+L, which is where we go now. We
expect costs to come back into line with guidance after the one-time costs seen in Q4…
ARG.to: Costs breakdown
275.82 954.13 920.03 673.13 49.33 811.23 933.23 869.13 414.43
800.14
83 73 83 83
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 tse32q1 tse32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
ARG: Charges to Cu revs
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
U$m other
G&A+roy
COGS
source: company data, IKN ests
…and once that math is done, we estimate a gross profit of U$13.4m for the quarter:
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 tse32q1 tse32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
U$m Transport ARG: Mo credits
smelting/refining
DET royalties
source: company filings, IKN ests
605.3
267.4
116.5
822.4 683.3
142.2
294.3
149.5 5.6
5 5 5
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 tse32q1 tse32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
U$m
source: company filings, IKN ests
ARG.to: Quarterly Earnings overview
624.12
616.1
655.3-
738.8 4.31
9
01
5.01
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 tse32q1 tse32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
source: company filings
srallod
fo snoillim
revenues
COGS
Gross profit

That’s good money and with just the non-abusive G&A number typical from ARG, the royalty
payment and a small catch-all “other”, operating profit is estimated at U$11.8m, or an
operating profit per share of just over 7c. We’ll find out how close that gets when ARG files its
financials on May 3rd.
However, that’s not all the cash ARG has at its disposal for its plans, including the modest
sustaining capex budget for 2023 or the more
interesting capital return strategy that includes the
NCIB share buyback facility, the quarterly C$0.03
dividend and the likely extra/bonus/top-
up/performance dividend later on this year. We still
estimate the share count will drop to around 155m
by the end of 2023 (chart right) and that alone may
allow ARG to up the quarterly standard dividend to
4c Canadian in 2024. But as CEO Aurora Davidson
has already pointed out in the corporate
presentations and literature, ARG is a cash flow
story above all and while we need to do the books
in the right way, when your material supply of tailings is close to unlimited that’s more an
accounting requirement than for a real mining company with a mine life limit to consider. Below
is our “real world margin” chart that backs out the non-cash DD&A numbers from the P+L and
shows an approximation of cash flow to treasury. With around U$16.9m at hand from 1q23
alone, ARG is demonstrating why I like this business model so much and delivering in fine style.
ARG: The real world margin
9
33.21
97.71 24.02 93.22 79.61 15.22
49.52
95.3 20.0-
57.51
09.61
05.21 04.31 06.31
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 tse32q1 tse32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
ARG.to: Shares Out
190
185 (NB: cut down Y-axis)
180
175
170
165
160
155
150
145
140
U$m
source: ARG data, IKN calcs and ests
So even after distributing the quarterly dividend (U$3.8m approx) and buying back shares in
the quarter (approx U$2m in 1q23, that will accelerate and they may spend around U$5m in
2q23) and budgeting its capex works (mainly the new sump in the tailings facility) we expect
treasury and working capital to increase this quarter.
71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 tse32q1 tse32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
source: company filings, IKN ests
serahs
fo
snoillim
ARG.to: Gross, operating and net profits, per qtr 10.12
74.1- 41.5- 10.1-
08.11
04.7 03.8 05.8
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 tse32q1 tse32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
U$m Gross profit
op profit
Net Income
source: ARG data

ARG.to: Cash and ST
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
We’ll take a better look at the balance sheet items when ARG files its quarter, until then just
those two example charts. But the upshot is the quickly increasing likelihood that ARG pays a
bonus or performance dividend later on this year and, considering previous statements made by
the company on the matter, assume that as long as copper remains above U$4.00/lb we can
pencil in an extra 8c/share windfall dividend art some point in the second half of 2023. However
be clear, that could get bigger and become even juicier if copper prices resume their climb.
The bottom line: ARG has put in a solid 1q23 and doing what we expected from it. Don’t expect
a blowout quarter when the company files, but that’s okay because “in line” is enough to see
this stock price move higher.
Stocks to Follow
Some weeks are easier than others. There were six week-over-week losers on the list, but aside
from the brand new trade, Western Exploration (WEX.v), they were all at the speculative end of
the range (ORX.v, CKG.v, ALDE.v, MIRL.cse, MENE.v). One was left unchanged on the week
(RUG.v) and that leaves eleven winners, including all the largest holdings on the list. Not listing
them all, instead just the biggest percentage movers starting with Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v up 22.6%)
and followed by SolGold (SOLG.to up 22.2%), Faraday Copper (FDY.to up 19.5%), Goldshore
(GSHR.v up 13.9%) and we finally got a bit of movement on volume out of Top Pick Minera
Alamos (MAI.v up 10.3%).
With the addition of WEX.v to the list we now have 18 open positions, two below the self-
imposed maximum. Ten in the green on their cost averages, one is unchanged, seven are in the
red. Newcore still lagging, but surely not for much longer.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.43 104.8% $0.75 first tgt, #1 idea
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Amerigo Res ARG.to STR BUY C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.75 28.7% Main Cu trade, top fundies
SolGold SOLG.to STR BUY C$0.265 19-Feb-23 C$0.385 45.3% Cu in Ecuador, M&A tgt
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v SPEC BUY C$0.265 25-Apr-21 C$0.155 -41.5% MRE now due 2q23, annoying
Faraday Copper FDY.to BUY C$0.79 26-Mar-23 C$1.04 31.6% Latest Cu exploreco, IKN723
AbraSilver Res. ABRA.v BUY C$0.36 4-Dec-22 C$0.425 16.8% added for last time Mar'23
Western Explor. WEX.v BUY C$1.90 9-Apr-23 C$1.73 -8.9% new trade, Au spec in NV USA
Newcore Gold NCAU.v BUY C$0.205 23-Oct-22 C$0.185 -9.8% MRE better than it looked.
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v SPEC BUY C$0.83 22-Apr-18 C$0.19 -77.1% Cheap on permit probs, appeal
SPECULATIVE TRADES
10
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 tse32q1
$m ARG.to: Working capital
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
source: company filings
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 tse32q1 tse32q2
U$m
source company filings

Orefinders ORX.v.v SPEC BUY C$0.04 20-Nov-22 C$0.04 0.0% build position at 4c
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v SPEC BUY C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$2.66 -13.4% Au leverage, small trade so far
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v BUY C$0.72 16-May-21 C$0.89 23.6% drill assays now coming
Minera IRL MIRL.cse avoid C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.02 -89.7% run into ground byCEO, AVOID
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
ATAC Res ATC.v WATCH C$0.095 11-Sep-22 C$0.16 68.4% Cheap Yukon neighbour play
Rugby Resources RUG.v WATCH C$0.06 26-Mar-23 C$0.065 8.3% new on watchlist, Cu in Col
Goldshore Res GSHR.v WATCH C$0.165 26-Mar-23 C$0.205 24.2% return to list, possible flip
Contango Ore CTGO WATCH U$23.25 2-Dec-22 U$30.45 31.0% Manh Choh finance happening
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.63 6-Dec-20 C$0.33 -47.6% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2023 date closed close price
Altiplano Metals APN.v jan'23 C$0.31 17-Sep-21 C$0.17 -45.2% delayed and will dilute soon
Western Copper WRN.to mar'23 C$2.02 13-Nov-22 C$2.32 14.9% sold on reduced M&A prob.
2015 to 2022 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on some of the covered companies:
Western Exploration (WEX.v): POSITION OPENED. As per last week’s main fundies note,
“Western Exploration Inc. (WEX.v): A buy and hold for 2023/2024”, this trade is now opened on
the Stocks to Follow list. I didn’t get many, the market is bone dry and it only took a couple of
smallish volume trades to pop the stock as high as $2.15 last week before a little sanity
prevailed. On the other hand, it was somewhat surprising to see the week’s low printed on the
last trade of the week and, as such, my tiny position (that will grow slowly) starts in the red. So
be it, I doubt it will stay like that as long as gold holds the 2k line.
As for the upcoming placement, no official news last week but it’s happening soon. On that
subject, the finder mentioned last week has been given a $3m allocation to the upcoming
placement and while I’m not into drumming up business for third parties on PPs, this is an
opportunity for those suitably interested (and with their accredited investor papers in order) if
so desired. Contact the gentleman here (6) and please be clear, I am on no type of payment,
commission or remuneration of any shape or from on this deal.
Goldshore Resources (GSHR.v): The only issue? GSHR isn’t carrying any of my own cash.
But it’s on the Watch List for a reason and seeing it react perkily in the way it did fits closely
with the reasons for re-starting coverage on the stock. The five-day price chart (right) shows
how enthusiasm petered out on Friday and we
could get pernickety about the half cent uptick on
thin volume that afternoon, but hey…small details.
This move coincided with the closure of its financing
round and once the standard, flow thru and
broker/agent warrants (at 17c) are lumped
together, there are 37m new shares of GSHR this
weekend. On top of that, let’s remember the 17.5m
warrants priced at a 25c strike and with a two year
shelf life, that’s the new natural place to expect a
price overhang in the weeks to come. The so-called
“warrant clippers” will be keen on liquidating their
shares, either by selling previously held shares pro-
rata or waiting 121 days, then keeping the “free” warrant as their exposure.
AbraSilver Resource Corp (ABRA.v): This five-day chart of ABRA versus the silver miners’
ETF (SIL) shows that arguably, our charge had a better week than the average but in real
terms, it was a market performer and rose/fell with the rest. That’s reasonable for the moment.
11

We got more drill results from JAC and they came in-line with the recent results.
Minera IRL (MIRL.cse): Presumably trying to bury the news on the refusal of its auditors to
sign off on its 2022 YE financials and the resulting
MTCO on its CEO and CFO, MIRL on Wednesday
announced some largely inconsequential drill results
from its Corihuarmi mine. Then on Friday we saw a
flurry of 893,000 shares dumped into the market and
while the day finished with a bid at 2c, the dumpage
saw MIRL trade at 1c for the first time ever.
Out of treasury, in financial debt and with the
countdown to the loss of Ollachea now in its final
stages, MIRL has been decimated by its management
and directors in much the way predicted by this desk.
Its record low production quarter in 1q23 means
things aren’t about to get better.
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v): The company’s proposal to cover in part officer salaries this year by
emitting shares instead of paying it all in cash, thereby keeping cash burn lower, was duly
accepted by the market authorities and last week saw the first instalment, as announced in this
NR (8). With that done RIO.v went on a bit of a move and briefly re-took the 20c line before
finishing the week at 19c. I still expect it can trade as high as 25c even before its appeals
process begins, the real upside happens when that appeal is successful and it can get back to
building its mine at Fenix.
Newcore Gold (NCAU.v): Unlike many of its peers, NCAU traded rather softly last week and
didn’t show much will to move back into the 20s. If you ask me (and even if you don’t I’m
going to tell you), the market is now expecting a financing round and is sitting on the price to
force a cheap deal on the company. It sucks, but we’ve seen this pattern too many times to
ignore. Still very cheap on its fundies and I’m holding through, but it needs to get the
bottleneck out the way.
Faraday Copper (FDY.to): A good week and this trade has started in fine style, up over 30%
in three weeks. A reminder that if the expected newsflow in May boosts the stock price in the
way we think possible, there’s the clear potential to see this position early and reap a quick
profit. A good start and lets see what happens when the next drill assays show and then the
43-101 “snapshot in time” provides the large brokerages the visibility they’ll need to model the
economics.
QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v): If the world is about to fall in love with any copper trade out
there, then this stock stands out as exceptional value and the latent worries about local
opposition to the Opemiska project will not provide much opposition to its development. Money
12

talks, after all and Chapais wouldn’t even exist if it weren’t for the mining industry.
The Copper Basket
After fifteen weeks of 2023, The Copper Basket shows a gain of 9.14% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Solaris Res SLS.to 6.44 114.56 823.69 7.19 11.6%
2 Western Copper WRN.to 2.41 151.597 397.18 2.62 8.7%
3 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.22 88.028 356.51 4.05 25.8%
4 Oroco Res OCO.v 0.91 207.034 196.68 0.95 4.4%
5 Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to 1.92 105.96 191.79 1.81 -5.7%
6 Faraday Copper FDY.to 0.54 175.2 182.21 1.04 92.6%
7 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.78 139.007 123.72 0.89 14.1%
8 Hot Chili HCH.v 0.78 119.455 109.90 0.92 17.9%
9 Regulus Res. REG.v 1.10 124.509 104.59 0.84 -23.6%
10 Pan Global Res PGZ.v 0.46 212.145 77.43 0.365 -20.7%
11 Kodiak Copper KDK.v 1.12 55.6 44.48 0.80 -28.6%
12 QC Copper QCCU.v 0.165 150.736 23.36 0.155 -6.1%
13 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.16 86.966 20.00 0.23 43.8%
14 Libero Copper LBC.v 0.155 93.869 13.14 0.14 -9.7%
15 Atacama Copper ACOP.v 0.16 34.373 6.19 0.180 12.5%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg 9.14%
The basket average rocketed higher last week,
up 5.28% as the world latched on to the copper 10% The Copper Basket 2023, weekly evolution
9%
trade and began to realize the depth of value in 8%
the sector. There were still five week-over-week 7%
6%
losers (MARI.to, ALDE.v, HCH.v, REG.v, KDK.v) 5%
4%
and two unchanged stocks (ASCU.to, ECU.v) 3%
2%
among the list, but the eight winners (SLS.to, 1%
WRN.to, OCO.v, PGZ.v, FDY.to, QCCU.v, LBC.v, 0%
-1%
ACOP.v) including the five double figure -2%
-3%
percentage moves in the shape of Oroco (OCO.v
up 21.8%), Faraday (FDY.to up 19.5%),
Atacama Copper (ACOP.v up 16.1%), Solaris
(SLS.to up 13.2%) and Libero (LBC.v up 12.0%). The other three weren’t that far behind and
the net result was a big shift in the basket average. About time too, frankly.
It was all about the copper price too, the
best reason to be long copper stocks. True
that Friday came with that sharp sell-off in
most metals (see intro above) as the US
Dollar finally caught a bid, but the net result
was a solidly positive week for copper. This
chart expands the focus a little and shows
you where IKN725 came out.
Why so? Because there’s no ChinaFear. The
world has latched on to the way China’s
economy is being stimulated into expansion,
so our coverage on Chinese PMI in IKN720
“It’s difficult to underestimate last week’s
52.6 reading, the best since 2012” and
13
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61
source: IKN calcs

IKN724, where we dedicated the entire intro to copper, updated the China PMI chart and noted
the March’23 reading of 51.9 was also one of the… “…top five readings since 2012. So even
without February’s blow out, China’s March 2023 would impress the suited and booted anal ysts
of the world.”
China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
54
53
52
51
50
49
48
47
46
14
0202naj ram yam luj pes von 1202naj ram yam luj pes von 2202naj ram yam luj pes von 3202naj ram
source: China PMI
We had more data out of China last week to reinforce its apparent health. All exports rose by
14.8% in March compared to the same month of 2022, while money supply and velocity of
money increased across the board. Here’s an excerpt from this report (7):
The M2, a broad measure of money supply that covers cash in circulation and all
deposits, increased 12.7 percent year on year to 281.46 trillion yuan at the end of last
month.
The growth rate was 0.2 percentage points lower than the figure seen at the end of
February, and was 3 percentage points higher than that for the same period last year.
The M1, which covers cash in circulation plus demand deposits, stood at 67.81 trillion
yuan at the end of March, up 5.1 percent year on year.
The M0, the amount of cash in circulation, expanded 11 percent from a year ago to
10.56 trillion yuan at the end of last month.
And for this desk, most telling was the rebound in new loans as reported by the People’s Bank
of China last week and from that, here’s the long-term chart generated by the nice people at
Trading Economics (8):
As you can (probably) make out, there’s always a spike in new loans in the January month but
this time, after the classic lull of February, new Yuan-denominated loans rebounded sharply to
give the third best reading of all-time, 3.89Tn Yuan. So yes, the Chinese internal economy is
conducive to further copper demand and yes, thanks largely to Robert Friedland’s presentation
at PDAC the bizworld now cares about the way copper inventories have depleted to record low
levels. Add in a world prepared to believe Ms Yellen and her friends about the US Soft Landing
and the scene is set for further gains for the metal.
With the subject broached, it’s now time for our regular weekly look at the world inventories for
copper, data as always from those lovable girls and boys at Chile’s State beancounter office,
Cochilco (8):
 The total copper held by the three official world systems dropped by another 17,809

metric tonnes (mt) last week, with the weekend total standing at 220,700mt. You
probably don’t need to hear this again, but stocks are extremely tight across the board.
 At the SHFE, copper stocks dropped by 7,093mt to finish Friday at 149,483mt. We go
into a little more detail on that below, word along with the dedicated SHFE charts.
 As for the LME, its stocks took an important leg down, losing a cool 13,875mt to close
the week at 51,550mt and if alarm bells weren’t ringing about copper availability before
this, they should be by now. Every day racks up a new historic low at the LME for
copper inventory and in another
telling data point, cancelled
warrants dropped by 17,275mt on
the week as well. In other words,
there’s very little in the way of “fun
and games” being played by
financial houses rolling over
cancelled warrant positions to try
and make out demand is higher
than reality. Instead, all the tonnes
being put under cancelled warrant
at the moment are subsequently
shipped out physically.
 The only trend-bucker was the Comex, which added to inventory for the second week
in a row and the 2,658mt added puts the total under roof at 19,667mt. It’s low yes, but
two weeks ago it was a record low.
The dedicated SHFE charts mark the modest drop in its inventories this week, the 5,000 and
bits tonnes lost keeping the total around the 150k level. As you can probably make out, this
level is a traditional “sticking point” in the calendar year for SHFE stocks but equally, we rarely
see this level as early as this. Not making any rash judgments on stocks at the moment, it’s fair
to say “they are tight” and move on.
SHFE copper inventory levels, 2018 to 2023
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
15
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
LME: Cu tonnage under cancelled warrant
100000
90000
80000
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
MT Cu 2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
source: Cochilco data
dr3rpa ht01 ht71 ht42 1.yam ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5nuj ht21 ht91 ht62 dr3yluj ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7gua ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4pes ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2tco ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6von ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4ced ht11 ht81 ht52 3202
naJ
ht8 ht51 dn22 02ts1naJ ht5beF ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61
mt Cu
source: Cochilco
Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2014 to date
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
31'13ceD dr32 ht51 ht7 ht03 dn22 ht71 ht9 ts1von ht42 ht71 ht01 dn2tcO 7102ts1naJ ht62 ht81 ht01 dr3ced ht52 102ht72rpa ht91 ht11 9102
dr3bef
102ht82rpa ts12 ht31 0202ht5naj 202ht92ram ts12 ht31 0202ht6ced ht82 dr32 ht51 ht7 202ht03naj ht42 ht71 ht9 3202
naJ
ht62
Mt Cu
|
source: Cochilco

Now for some notes on some of our basket component stocks:
Kodiak Copper (KDK.v): The major part of the current financing was announced closed on
Friday (10) with KDK booking just under $5m of the total $7.5m gross proceeds as the flow-
through and charity flow-through segments closed in good order. The rest is expected by April
21st (i.e. next Friday). In trading KDK remained lacklustre and weighed down by this financing
round, so presumably you have another week in which to position for any post-close rebound.
There are worse out there, for sure.
Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.to): As part of the DD process before opening on Faraday Copper
(FDY.to) and buying a few shares, at some point in 1q23 there came the moment to compare
and contrast FDY and ASCU.to, consider their relative merits and decide which would be the
better trade. So far at least, the call is working out:
FDY is running well while ASCU, recently out of another placement round, has lagged the field
somewhat.
Oroco Resources (OCO.v): There was I last
weekend, pointing to the lack of buyers and
momentum in OCO and sure enough, my words
were stuffed back in my face.
Up 21.8% and bought consistently all week,
perhaps the volumes weren’t as stellar as a real
turnaround requires but there was a distinct lack of
sellers and that’s where my assumptions last
weekend got it all wrong. I will however cut myself
some slack as last weekend wasn’t the first time
I’ve mentioned it looks cheap based on its fundies
and OCO at its new Loonie-or-so makes more
sense in a buoyant copper sector market.
Western Copper & Gold (WRN.to): I can only
console myself with the thought that the money I
harvested from selling WRN in March at C$2.32 has
been put to use in other trades.
With Copper Mountain (CMMC.to) coming under offer
from HudBay (HBM), it’s a natural reaction for the
market to look around and wonder where the next
hammer will fall and in WRN there’s size, scale, a
project advanced to near “shovel ready”, strategic
investors with deep pockets and above all, located in
a socially and politically acceptable country. Result?
16

The stock had a good week and improved by 7.4% without my money on board. Harrumph.
Atacama Copper (ACOP.v): The distinct lack of activity at ACOP continues to be something
of a mystery to me. To remind readers, March 10th saw the publication of the only NR we’ve
had from the company since Tim Warman took over as CEO in August 2022 and that NR was
only to announce incentive options awards. Meanwhile and as a follower of Warman on Twitter,
I know he spent a week looking at properties in the Sierra Madre of Mexico in late March but
aside that, his life seems to be devoted to skiing, saunas and cooking large hunks of beef.
Nice work if you can get it, I suppose. Here’s the
last six months of ACOP vs the market (spot
copper and the COPX ETF) and while the flat-line
isn’t such an issue, the way volume has ground to
a near halt at the precise time you’d want a
copper exploreco to be making waves and
attracting attention is more concerning.
The Producer Basket
After 15 weeks of 2023, the Producer Basket shows a gain of 21.40% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 47.20 799 39.57 49.52 4.9%
2 Barrick GOLD 17.18 1761.54 34.65 19.67 14.5%
3 Agnico Eagle AEM 51.99 488.9 28.53 58.36 12.3%
4 Wheaton PM WPM 39.08 451.963 23.00 50.89 30.2%
5 Kinross Gold KGC 4.09 1256.1 6.71 5.34 30.6%
6 Alamos Gold AGI 10.11 393.1 5.27 13.41 32.6%
7 B2Gold BTG 3.57 1074.567 4.61 4.29 20.2%
8 Hecla Mining GFI 5.56 603.86 3.99 6.61 18.9%
9 Eldorado Gold EGO 8.36 185.73 2.15 11.55 38.2%
10 Wesdome Gold WDOFF 5.53 142.287 0.88 6.18 11.8%
All prices and stock quotes in U$ Port. avg 21.40%
That’s five winning weeks in a row for the Producer Basket and we out-performed the GDX
benchmark by around one percentage point, too. That’s probably due to the GDX’s weighed
basket featuring the two losing stocks on the week more heavily, as sector bigboys Newmont
(NEM down 4.9%) and Barrick (GOLD down 0.3%) under-performed for their own sweet
reasons. The other eight stocks on our list were all winners though, the best shows put up by
Eldorado (EGO up 6.8%) and Kinross (KGC up 6.0%), with the fast recovering Wesdome
(WDOFF up 5.3%) snapping at their heels.
The 2023 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
comparative to GDX control
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
17
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61
The 2023 Producer Basket: Percentage difference
between GDX benchmark & basket (negative = IKN ahead)
4.0%
3.5%
ikn 3.0%
gdx control 2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
source: NYSE, IKN calcs ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91 ht62 dn2rpA ht9 ht61
source: IKN calcs, NYSE data

Newmont (NEM) and Newcrest (NCM): Up to last weekend’s edition I’ve made my sceptic’s
position on the potential fusion between these two
sector giants clear. That means this weekend is time
Barrick Copper sales, per qtr
to face reality, admit my error and thank the stars I’m
not paid to follow the bigcaps. The news Monday that
NEM had sweetened its bid for NCM to 0.4 of its own
shares for every NCM share, conditional on full DD. It
would also allow NCM to pay a A$1.10 dividend to its
shareholders on the eve of deal consummation. The
result is a deal that NCM’s board considers around
16% better than the previous offer and it got the right
sort of noises from the large NCM shareholders in
Australia, this AFR report (11) quoting a 7% insto
holder as calling it “palatable” and another with this:
“It’s great to see Newmont recognise the value that Newcrest has in its portfolio by
improving its offer. We also appreciate the addition of the fully franked dividend, which
would benefit our clients and other long-standing shareholders.”
The next step is already underway, NEM
now has full access to the NCM data room
and if all goes as expected, it’s conditional
offer should become official in four weeks
or so. The only weak link in the story are
the NEM shareholders, who may baulk at
the deal price and refuse its board
permission to move ahead. However, the
way NEM shares traded last week doesn’t
suggest wholesale rejection and while
down, there’s enough support for us to
suppose NEM can get its part of the deal
through. So colur me incorrect, it looks as
though we’re about to create a U$60Bn
gold mining behemoth that will rule over all other sector players.
Barrick (GOLD): On the morning of Thursday 13th April Barrick delivered its 1q23 production
numbers to market (12) and they sucked. Here’s the breakdown of sales for the 1q23 period
compared with the last three years and the total of 0.95m oz gold, along with 89m lbs copper,
we both post Randgold merger lows. Produciton and sales were particularly weak in its Nevada
Gold Mines JV and North Mara operation, while Pueblo Viejo is still struggling to get back to its
former production levels as it works through lower grading material.
18
011 321 611 801 311 69 101 311 311 311 321 99 98
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 32q1
Cu Mlbs
source: company filings
Barrick (GOLD): Segment sales, per qtr Nevada GM Loulo-Gounkoto
Pueblo Viejo Kibali
North Mara Veladero
Bulyanhulu Tongon
Hemlo Buzwagi
Au Koz
Porgera
1300
source: company filings
1200
1100
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1q20 2q20 3q20 4q20 1q21 2q21 3q21 4q21 1q22 2q22 3q22 4q22 1q23

The results also affected Newmont (NEM, see above) as it shares two of its largest producing
assets with GOLD. This chart puts Pueblo Viejo and Nevada Gold Mines together and that may
eventually have repercussions in the Newcrest merger deal, it’s not the time for NEM to go
through further equity price weakness after its poor start to the year.
Pueblo Viejo
Au Koz Barrick (GOLD): The Newmont JVs
Nevada GM
800
700
113
600 144 115 129 153 141 125 96
500 118 104 102 124
90
400
300 611
200 528 522 542 542 488 455 485 458 463 424 511 411
100
0
1q20 2q20 3q20 4q20 1q21 2q21 3q21 4q21 1q22 2q22 3q22 4q22 1q23
source: company filings
But all is not lost for Barrick and strategically, it may be the right time to back GOLD over NEM
going forward. Assuming NEM gets its deal and the merger with NCM goes ahead, we may
finally be in the position where the much discussed merger between Newmont and Barrick
finally happens. Up to now considered a “merger of equals”, if NEM/NCM happens Barrick would
suddenly be a comparative minnow next to the market leader (by a mile) and it wouldn’t be so
easy to put off the calls for further sector consolidation. When Mark Bristow pooh-poohed the
NEM original offer for NCJM as too expensive and “merger for merger’s sake”, he must have
thought of what might happen, further down the line, if a NEM with near double the market cap
of Barrick came knocking on his door afterwards. With NEM bloating itself and shareholders
potentially ready to abandon ship for a leaner company with better takeover target potential,
the real long-term winner of this NEM/NCM deal may turn out to be its biggest rival.
The TinyCaps List
After 15 weeks of 2023, the TinyCaps show a gain of 40.04% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Aurelius Min AUL.v 0.07 49.787 3.49 0.07 0.0%
Coast Copper COCO.v 0.045 64.001 3.20 0.05 11.1%
District Metals DMX.v 0.075 86.891 17.38 0.20 60.0%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.13 69.962 13.29 0.19 46.2%
Manitou Gold MTU.v 0.02 344.568 20.67 0.06 200.0%
Nine Mile Metals NINE.cse 0.29 57.025 17.68 0.31 6.9%
Palamina Corp PA.v 0.08 65.285 8.16 0.125 56.3%
Precipitate Gold PRG.v 0.075 130.367 9.13 0.07 -6.7%
South Star STS.v 0.55 32.755 17.03 0.52 -5.5%
Viva Gold VAU.v 0.14 91.608 16.95 0.185 32.1%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 40.04%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $20m. They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a
little and allowed sub-U$20m market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, but it was a particularly depressing exercise to trawl through the whole of the TSXV and find companies
that are small enough, but with life in them. The vast majority of sub-$20m stocks are broken stocks, either
19

traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2023. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
The good times rolled among the microcaps as well,
TinyCaps, 2023 weekly tracker
with just one of our representative ten TinyCap stocks 50%
45%
losing ground last week (LMS.v). Two others were 40%
unchanged (AUL.v, COCO.v) and that leaves seven 35%
30%
winners, including big percentage winners in the shape
25%
of South Star (STS.v up 35.1%), Viva Gold (VAU.v up 20%
15%
23.3%), District Metals (DMX.v up 20.0%) and let’s
10%
throw in Palamina (PA.v up 13.6%), too. The list is still 5%
0%
led by the big winner on the year Manitou (MTU.v) as it
rides on the back of Alamos Gold’s (AGI) run, but there
are now four other big winners and that’s a lot of
green.
South Star Battery Metals Corp (STS.v): Last
weekend in IKN725 we called STS a “dead weight” to
the basket and, on groping for a reason why that
might be, supposed that the company may have
problems at its build-out at its Santa Cruz Graphite
Project in the Southern Bahia, Brazil and the price
action “…suggests problems and we may see that
timeline put back (or more funding required).” That
guess held firm for two days:
District Metals (DMX.v): The irony seems to have
been lost on the market. Just days after the Swedish parliament voted to leave its current
moratorium on uranium mining in place, the government awarded DMX the exploration permit
for its Viken project, brought on board DMX recently for its uranium prospectivity (13). Notably
last week, management was talking up the Viken concession’s polymetallic characteristics as the
stock improved by 20%. DMX has turned into an interesting TinyCap case study to follow, but
the chances of me buying into this type of managerial style are minimal.
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future
I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
Brazil: Lula meets Xi
The State visit by Brazil’s President Lula da Silva to China, with well-publicized meetings with
China’s Xi included, was the big political story in LatAm last week. Brazil is no ordinary partner
in LatAm and the sheer size of its economy means that whatever it does, the rest of the
continent follows to a greater or lesser extent.
This headline from CNN (yes I know, but it’s a good headline) sets the tone well (14). “Trade
and carbon credits, not Ukraine, lead the agenda at Lula - Xi talks.” These are all good friends
together, all business and nothing o upset the tone or beaming smiles of the leadership and
their entourages. However, an altogether better report on Lula’s vist is linked here (15). From
AP and entitled “In China, Lula seeks help to build back Brazilian industry.” Some very solid
reporting, the note points to the main political thrust of the visit as from paragraph one:
BEIJING (AP) — The trip by Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva to Beijing has
20
ts1naJ ht51 ht92 ht21 ht62 ht21 ht62 ht9
source: IKN calcs, TSX data

made clear he is counting on China to help reinvigorate the South American nation’s
ailing industrial sector — particularly by picking up the slack of exiting U.S. companies.
After Lula met Friday with China’s President Xi Jinping, Brazilian finance minister
Fernando Haddad told reporters the nations are planning a “leap forward” in their
relationship.
“President Lula wants a policy of reindustrialization. This visit starts a new challenge
for Brazil: bringing direct investments from China,” Haddad said. He added that Brazil
wants strong bonds with the U.S. as well, but noted with regret that recently “some
American companies made the decision to leave Brazil.”
Internally, Brazil’s new left-leaning government is making use of the way US investors backed
Jair Bolsonaro and are now reluctant to make further investments in the country, which is the
real reason behind Lula’s visit. Brazil will use its leverage between China and The USA to its
best advantage and with China looking to establish itself as South America’s number one source
for FDI, is looking to play one off against the other. Not for nothing did Lula make international
headlines once again on the subject of trading currencies (16):
(Bloomberg) -- Brazil’s Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva called on BRICS nations to come up
with an alternative to replace the dollar in foreign trade, supporting China’s crusade
against US global dominance just as he prepares to meet with President Xi Jinping in
Beijing.
“Why can’t an institution like the BRICS bank have a currency to finance trade relations
between Brazil and China, between Brazil and all the other BRICS countries?” he said.
“Who decided that the dollar was the (trade) currency after the end of gold parity?”
I know the answer to that one, but Lula’s question was almost certainly rhetorical in nature.
Anyway, Brazil is looking to Chinese Yuan (and US Dollars) for investments to add value along
the chain of manufacturing, as trade in primary material is already well established.
This chart shows annual Brazilian exports to China in USD terms (from website Trading
Economics with data sourced from the UN (17)) under the headline number, Brazil’s single
biggest export to China is soybeans, covering almost U$32Bn in exports and over a third of the
export grand total of U$89.72Bn in 2022 (that’s a lot of soybeans). However mining is up there,
with iron ore Brazil’s #2 export to China. Thanks mainly to Vale but with other players involved,
Brazil exported U$18.17Bn worth of iron ore to China last year and is expected to beat that
figure in 2023.
21

Chile: CESCO this week
Starting tomorrow April 17th and running all week (with the main agenda done by Wednesday
19th, “CESCO Week” is Chile’s biggest mining conference and centres around the “World Copper
Conference” event, always attended by the greatest and best of the world copper sector (18).
In preview to the event, BMO published this report (19) last week (thank you reader D) that
goes into some detail as to what we can expect from the speakers and exchanges as pertains
to the copper sector. Here’s a paste out of the cover page and that gives a good idea, for more
download your copy.
Price projections. Recency bias is natural, and sentiment at CESCO is often determined by
price action heading into the conference. It’s actually been a decent start to the year for
copper prices, with spot up 8% over the course of Q1. Meanwhile, the average price over
Q1 was up 11% over Q4 2022. These are not as strong as seen in the recovery year of
2021, but do mark one of the stronger Q1’s in recent times even if today’s spot price is 14%
below the level seen at this time last year. We expect a wider range of price projections for
this year and next than is usual, with some expecting further upside on China demand
recovery and others looking at growing mine supply and economic turmoil as weighing on
future expectations. We have a roughly balanced copper market this year, however industry
consultants are still modelling a refined surplus. Either way, we think there will be general
consensus that the low in copper price cycles is higher than it may have been in the past.
Latin American supply issues. It wouldn’t be CESCO without discussion of the supply
challenges in Chile and Peru. However, while we were churning though our disruption
allowance quickly at the start of the year, supply issues have calmed down somewhat in
recent weeks. CESCO usually sees strong expectations for investment in potential future
supply from Latin America, but plenty of complaints about the potential challenges faced in
terms of productivity, water availability, and various other headwinds. We don’t expect 2023
to be any different, and we wouldn’t be surprised to see the challenges in sourcing, keeping,
and paying skilled workers high up on the complaints list.
What does the current surge in corporate activity tell us? If you are a mining company,
and you want growth, you have the choice to build it or to buy it. However, put simply
building is just too hard at the moment. Buying growth might be pricier, but comes with less
risk. It does mean though that industry dollars being generated are not being put back into
the ground, directly at least, and thus solving future supply-demand imbalances becomes
even harder. Meanwhile, given securing raw material supply has been moved up the China
policy agenda this year, we will be interested to see if there is expectation of another
outbound surge in Chinese SOE investment in overseas operations.
Chile’s SEA, its working week and the mining sector
A couple of new stories out of Chile last week. The first was the signing of Chile’s new labour
laws which drop the official working week from the current 45 hours to 44 hours next year, 42
hours in three years’ time and then to the main objective, a 40 hour working week for all
Chileans five years from now. As regards the mining sector, due to the way workers often
remain on-site after finishing their shift in remote locations an alternative system is being set up
that will allow workers to put in longer working weeks in return for extra days off. According to
the ministry of Labour spokesperson (20), “An alternative mechanism will be established for the
reduction of work hours via a system of compensatory days, that can allow up to nine extra rest
days per year for those workers (working at remote mine camps) instead of a reduction in their
workday hours.”
Moving on and in other news, Ms Valentina Durán, the Executive Director of Chile’s
Environmental Evaluation body (Servicio de Evaluación Ambiental, or SEA) appeared in another
TV interview on Chile’s mining TV digest program, Reporte Minero (21). The interview was
mostly about the environmental factors connected to the government’s “Green Hydrogen”
production plans, but along the way the interviewer asked her about the ongoing friction
between her office and the Chilean Chamber of Construction, which continues to accuse her of
denying environmental permits to projects of all types and particularly those for the mining
industry. Ms Durán again fell back on the dubious statistic that 93% of permit applications sent
to the SEA are approved, which sensu stricto may be true but the vast majority of permits are
for minor matters of low capital intensity or impact that are normally simple addenda or
continuations of existing main permits. But after a further question she added that the rise in
rejected permits was due to the rise in permit applications and as such, the SEA acted as a type
22

of thermometer of economic activity.
Complete balderdash, of course, however it will be interesting to see the SEA’s reaction to the
now inevitable economic downturn facing Chile in 2023 (you can debate the recession in other
countries, Chile’s is near-unavoidable). We remind readers that it was Ms Durán and her
ideologically charged SEA (she is friends with Enviro Minister Maisa Rojas) that was behind the
refusal of the Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v) EIA permit for its Fenix project last year, one of the main EIA
decisions causing the bad blood between business and this government.
Ecuador: Opposition to mining works
This link goes to the Reuters report (22) on the press conference held by Ecuador’s Chamber of
Mining, headed up by its president Maria Eulalia Silva, and is entitled, “Ecuador mining
opposition holding up $1 bln of investments -business leader.”
QUITO, April 11 (Reuters) - Opposition by indigenous communities in Ecuador is
holding up some $1 billion of investments for constructing three mining projects in the
South American country, an executive of the Ecuadorean Chamber of Mining said on
Tuesday.
Ecuador’s largest indigenous organization, CONAIE, last month asked the country’s
top court to annul a government decree that sets parameters for community
environmental consultations.
While such consultations are needed before Ecuador’s environment ministry can issue
environmental licenses for mining and oil projects, indigenous communities are
pushing instead for an earlier say on whether the project should proceed at all.
CONAIE has said the current consultation parameters could actually accelerate the
development of mining projects.
Maria Eulalia Silva, president of the Ecuadorean Chamber of Mining, called on judges
in the Constitutional Court to reject CONAIE’s request.
“These types of actions ... have real implications in the lives of Ecuadoreans,” Silva
said, adding that communities living near mining projects have benefited from them.
Investments planned for constructing mines over the next two years has been held up,
she added.
The affected projects include Canada’s Adventus Mining Corp’s Curipamba copper-
gold development, Atico Mining Corp’s gold-rich La Plata project, and Dundee
Precious Metals Inc’s Loma Larga copper-gold development.
That is serious chutzpah, if only for the fact that the Presidential decree in question has already
had several suits brought against it by Constitutional lawyers due to the way it has tried to ride
roughshod over the laws of the land. And, of course, openly calling on judges who are
supposed to remain neutral to reject laws simply because they go against the wishes of the
government is dubious to say the least. However, the main take away from last week’s presser
is to note that Ecuador’s mining industry is clearly feeling the heat and its Chamber of
Commerce must have been under pressure to “do something” from its membership. They can
see the way the country is headed and it’s not in their favour. Ultimately, the Reuters headline
says it all: The strategies used by opponents to mining in Ecuador are working and they, from
CONAIE down to the smallest of affected local communities, are happy that those $1Bn or so in
FDI have been held up.
Mexico: A brief update on the mining reform law bill
Featured in some detail last week, here’s a quick word to note that as from tomorrow April 17th
the AMLO-backed mining law reform bill in Mexico begins its passage through the country’s
Congress, with the first stage of committee hearings. The process takes due time and along the
way, we’ll get a feel for the chances the bill has of staying intact or if not, which parts are likely
to get watered down/away. If something of interest happens, you’ll get a report on it in future
editions.
Argentina: Polling and geopolitics
Being a bit of a polling addict myself, an Argentine Presidential election is hog heaven because
no other country will chop and slice its voter intention data to the Nth degree the way this one
will. We’re still six months from the big day and a couple from the key PASO “primary-style”
internal votes that will likely decide which candidate from each party/alliance becomes
23

candidate, but the race is already firming up and this poll (23), from respected pollster
Analogías, caused another ripple of anxiety for the established party groups as independent
right wing libertarian populist (a mouthful, but I know of no better way at the moment) Javier
Milei continues to climb in the polls. It also came with this table of voter intention totals that
also splits groupings into sex, age and education level. I’ve done a little translation:
The Argentine media is already framing this year’s election as “a battle of thirds”, with voting
looking split three ways between the government candidate, the established opposition
candidate and Milei. As for the former, the PASO vote is all important and at this time:
1) For the right wing, it’s now basically between Patricia Bullrich and Horacio Rodriguez
Larreta. Ex-President Mauricio Macri has stood down from the race and is known to
prefer Bullrich as candidate, however most polls currently put Buenos Aires City mayor
Larreta in a small lead against her for the PASO. Interestingly, polls show that Milei
would fare better and take more votes away from the right wing if Larreta is chosen as
candidate.
2) For the left wing, it’s very tough to tell between ex-President CFK, current President
Alberto F, and wannabe President (and current Economy Minister) Sergio Massa. Raw
polls suggest CFK, nuanced polls suggest Massa, but at the same time it’s rare to see a
sitting President opposed in this way and Alberto holds plenty of advantages and
opportunities to improve his position before the PASO happens.
3) As for the deeper polls for the Presidential vote, CFK is the hardcore candidate and
currently has the best position of the three in general surveys, but she also has the
worst “anti-vote” level with upwards of 60% of Argentines of all political stripes saying
they would never vote for her under any circumstance. That compares with the best
“anti-vote” scores of 38% for Larreta and 44% for Javier Milei (chart right from
Poliarquia poll).
With Braizl now cozying up to China (see above) the
uncertainty caused by the slow rise of Javier Milei in
South America’s second largest economy is causing
international repercussions. The USA has banked on the
Macri alliance taking this year’s election but with Milei
splitting the vote with a Libertarian ideology that would
not be an issue about working with China (money has no
smell, etc), that’s now less certain to happen.
24

Market Watching
Deferred
I thought about some notes on the new surge in M&A, but couldn’t think of anything worth
saying about Teck and Glencore, or Hudbay and Copper Mountain. So that’s enough for one
week.
Conclusion
IKN726 is done, we end with bullet points:
 Despite not making much copy this week, the new trade idea of Western Exploration
(WEX.v) is still uppermost in my mind. It was very difficult to buy last week and in fact,
if I didn’t feel quasi-obliged to own some by this weekend I may well have held back
but in the end, I only got a few to mark the trade. Once the financing is opened and
then completed, we should get better liquidity and open market can offer some
reasonable size and prices.
 Have to be happy about the way the two main copper trades, Amerigo and SolGold,
have been shaping up recently and add to those the nice move in Faraday (FDY.to) in
its three short weeks on the list. The one that keeps me awake at night is still QC
Copper (QCCU.v), though.
 Despite its 10% move and the news that its Cerro del Oro permit application has
officially begun, I took the decision not to feature Minera Alamos much this week.
Copper is the more pressing trade, WEX has my gold money and there’s nothing at the
Top Pick that can’t wait until we have the 1q23 financials, production numbers etc. Just
because the stock doesn’t get rah-rahed at every opportunity doesn’t mean it’s not my
#1 sector pick.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stock is Minera Alamos (MAI.v). Flash
updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best wishes, Mark
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://edition.cnn.com/2023/04/15/economy/yellen-zakaria-economy-weekend/index.html
(2) https://www.ft.com/content/a7dbefd3-7621-4cb0-98b1-efb74a51cf72
(3) https://iknnews.com/the-problems-faced-by-president-lasso-of-ecuador-are-also-problems-for-its-mining-industry-
from-ikn725/
(4) https://www.reuters.com/article/ecuador-mining-idCAL1N36E2IY
(5) https://amerigoresources.com/_resources/news/nr_20230411.pdf
(6) https://twitter.com/KilconaVC/status/1646424686656462849?t=JwOzcf356n5fB-8v8GGehQ&s=09
(7) http://www.china.org.cn/business/2023-04/12/content_85224781.htm
25

(8) https://tradingeconomics.com/china/banks-balance-sheet
(9) https://www.cochilco.cl/Paginas/Inicio.aspx
(10) https://kodiakcoppercorp.com/news/news-releases/kodiak-closes-first-tranche-of-7.5-million-private-placement/
(11)
https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/newmont-raises-newcrest-bid-by-16pc-to-29-4b-20230411-p5czgw
(12) https://www.barrick.com/English/news/news-details/2023/barrick-on-track-to-achieve-2023-targets/default.aspx
(13) https://districtmetals.com/news/district-receives-approval-of-mineral-license-application-that-encompasses-the-
majority-of-the-polymetallic-viken-deposit-in-central-sweden-
(14) https://edition.cnn.com/2023/04/12/americas/brazil-china-lula-xi-talks-climate-intl-latam/index.html
(15) https://apnews.com/article/china-brazil-lula-xi-jinping-91c34b4a9fb78f263d6f81f1e9a16f49
(16) https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lula-backs-brics-currency-replace-140204909.html
(17) https://tradingeconomics.com/brazil/exports/china
(18) https://www.cesco.cl/cesco-week-santiago-en/
(19) https://bmo.bluematrix.com/sellside/EmailDocViewer?encrypt=e1a17dae-3c50-4190-ae6a-
1ee51c351d4d&mime=pdf&co=bmo&id=replaceme@bluematrix.com&source=mail
(20) https://www.cnnchile.com/m360/40-horas-semanales-como-afecta-mineria_20230415/
(21) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kQIgxluE6Wo
(22) https://www.reuters.com/article/ecuador-mining-idCAL1N36E2IY
(23) https://www.iprofesional.com/politica/380105-elecciones-la-ventaja-clave-de-milei-y-sorpresa-en-una-encuesta
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2022
Closed in 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
Goldshore Res GSHR.v Nov'22 C$0.18 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 88.9% Quick profit taken
Palamina Corp PA.v Dec'22 C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.08 -72.9% Clear-out of underperformer
Pure Gold PGM.h Dec'22 C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.015 -89.3% tiny trade on vh risk, went Ch11
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Set-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
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New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
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Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
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B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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