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The IKN Weekly
Week 722, March 19th 2023
Contents
This Week: Trade heads-up, In Today’s Edition, The Confidence Man.
Fundamental Analysis: Adding Newcore Gold (NCAU.v) and AbraSilver (ABRA.v).
Stocks to Follow: Aldebaran Resources (ALDE.v), SolGold (SOLG.to), Chesapeake Gold
(CKG.v), Minera IRL (MIRL.cse).
Copper Basket: Overview, Oroco Resources (OCO.v), Pan Global Resources (PGZ.v), Element
29 Resources (ECU.v).
Producer Basket: Overview, Newmont (NEM) and Newcrest (NCM), Wesdome (WDO.to)
(WDOFF).
TinyCaps Basket: Overview, District Metals (DMX.v), Nine Mile Metals (NINE.cse).
Regional Politics: Ecuador: Political headlines and earthquakes, Argentina: The pre-primaries
scenario in one chart
Market Watching: Updating on Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v).
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
Trade heads-up
A top-of-the-shop note that you can’t help but see. In light of the rapidly changing market that
is now coming around and should favour risk capital in precious metals mining stocks, I plan to
add to the open trades in Newcore Gold (NCAU.v) and AbraSilver (ABRA.v) to take advantage of
their current dirt cheap entry points.
In Today’s Edition
 Today’s intro note is probably the centre of the edition. It’s a wild world out there but
we’re going to try to keep things as real as possible, so look to other market mouths for
rousing forecasts of rocket moves in metals, or the Death Of The Dollar. Our remit is to
navigate what we see and consider a reasonable route for the days ahead. It’s a key
moment in the financial world and at these times, the big picture matters most.
 However and fortunately the big picture also implies good things for precious metals
mining companies. It’s not just the $110/oz move in gold that matters, it’s the way that
the background data is conducive for mining stocks and as such, today’s main fundies
sections explains why I am adding to my open positions in AbraSilver (ABRA.v) and
Newcore Gold (NCAU.v). It’s time to deploy risk capital and these trades fit the bill.
 In an otherwise thin edition, we use Market Watching for the progress report on Rio2
Ltd, taking in the contents of its recent NR and my meeting a few days ago with
company chair, Alex Black.
 As for regional politics, the news that the country’s parliament had started the official
impeachment process against President Guillermo Lasso turned a few heads in the
worlds of business and mining. We explain why this isn’t something Lasso fears directly,
but may well be part of the slow burn process against him that ends with a new round
of mass marches later this year.
1

The Confidence Man
Let me tell you something, baby
You better learn,
If you're gonna con the con man,
You're liable to get burned
Confidence Man, The Jeff Healey Band 1988
I don’t mind admitting that last week’s opener, “The return of the most unpopular gold rally
ever”, hedged its bets slightly by allowing the potential for very-near-term weakness in the
price of gold (and things related) as the shockwaves of SVB ran through the market. Here’s an
extract from the intro note last weekend:
“…it’s tough to make very-near-term forecasts on the movements of bullion in
the next 48 hours. But once the storm has passed we should be in a macro
scenario that points more people toward the benefits of owning the monetary
metal and there’s no doubt that Wall St has plenty of catching up to do on
that score.”
However, if we catch up with the same chart we used this time last weekend, the Comex gold
continuous contract (GC00)…
…it’s fair to day we were in the ballpark. There was no early weakness so it turns out there was
no need to play the get-out card, gold added over U$110/oz last week and by the time final
electronic trading was done post-USA close on Friday it was priced at U$1,992/oz and ready to
ping the (psychologically important?) 2k line. That now seems inevitable in the week to come.
As for gold stocks, as the week rolled out the three ducks we posited as coming into line came
good. This again from the IKN721 intro:
“…with the ducks now moving into line for gold ownership…
 The Fed forced to limit rate rises
 The fight against inflation no longer the only game in town
 Fear Trade revival (aka flight to safety away from USD)
…it looks as though the time to has arrived for PM stocks…”
However, the move in PM stocks was stickier than I imagined. We first got a catch-up at the
open Monday with stocks marked back up, but
they then spent the next four days trading with
bullion, as seen in this chart that runs GLD
against GDX.
It took until Friday for gold stocks to make a
truly positive move against the underlying metal,
one that’s well overdue and one that should
continue. Gold bullion can go higher if it wants in
the days and weeks to come (and I’m not going
to stop it), but the combo of U$2,000-or-abouts
2

prices and inflation dropping should be enough to see the producers and eventually the
developers/explorers go up. While on the subject of inflation, the market negotiated the “in
line” Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading without much fluster on Tuesday morning and the
6.0% headline gave the Fed leeway to do what it prefers (raise), but by the time the Producer
Price Index reading showed, the world had decided to panic about other things. Be clear, PPI
isn’t top of anyone’s list of policy influences and The Fed will make next week’s decision for
other headline reasons; CPI and PCE yes, space in the jobs market yes, event the potential for
wholesale collapse of the US banking system is now on the table. So the heroic Fed fight
against inflation could be set aside even if hyperinflation were just months away, but surely it
will be better to dreww things up and when PPI for February came in at negative 0.1% instead
of the positive 0.3% consensus, it was shrugged off and cast aside rather quickly. Now, with
banks being backstopped, an FOMC looming and its participants ready to use data to justify a
near-inevitable 25bps rise, that PPI may well come in handy. So as long as gold doesn’t crash
lower, the three ducks in line above should be enough to consolidate the move and bring more
money into PMs so expect GDX to do better than GLD in the days to come. The moves in this
week’s Producer Basket underscore this narrative, with the biggest of the big miners (NEM,
GOLD) generally leading the Tier 2s and making the largest moves. As noted below, that’s what
happens when the big money moves in.
As for the non-mining macro news flow of the last seven days, you’re bound to get a better
commentary on last week’s crazy fire hose from other places but for our requirements, the
above is enough to get up to date. We now turn our attention to week ahead and what’s now
being framed as a vital FOMC meeting and Fed decision on rates. It’s funny (ha-ha or peculiar,
up to you) to think that just eight trading days ago, the market wasn’t just predicting but
pricing in a 66% chance of a 50bps Fed Funds rate rise, whereas now the raging debate is
between either a 25bps rise or a Fed that follows Canada and pauses its hikes (strange how
that happens). As noted above, this desk is sticking firmly and confidently to the 25bps forecast
but the reasons behind that call has been a moving target over the last three weekends. So in
order to expand on why we should bake in 25bps it’s worth considering the other possible
scenarios, then compare and contrast: In essence, there are four:
 Fed cuts rates 25bps: That would be funny
 Fed pauses: Possible
 Fed raises rates 25bps: Most likely
 Fed raises rates 50bps: Not impossible
Okay, they aren’t going to cut unless there really are actual and physical bank runs, with
queues forming outside branches up and down The USA. Not going to happen.
That leaves three options. If the Fed leaves rates unchanged, it would send a message that all
is not well and emergency action was needed. This would be a Federal Reserve admitting it has
overplayed its hand and hadn’t taken into account the effect of its sharp rates rises on US
regional banks and the US financial system. I’m no expert on these matters, but it’s not too
difficult to grasp that small regional US banks with FDIC guarantees of a maximum of $250,000
to accounts are going to come under pressure if customers withdraw cash currently earning
interest at 3% and put it into Fed funds tracking vehicles (money market a/c) that not only
offer stronger guarantees on large money, but also give at least 4.5% annual on your money.
But more importantly, it’s perfectly likely that the Fed expected a few banks to go Boom! Under
its rising rates scenario; after all, they use macro tools to predict a slowdown, how that macro
call manifests on a micro level is less certain.
That leaves two options. If the Fed raises rates by 50bps, the message is quite different. This
would be a Fed grabbing a megaphone and shouting at the crowd “We really were not joking,
we really are going after inflation and hang the consequences.” Considering once again those
US regional banks as our baseline, the logical outcome of even higher Fed base rates is regional
banks going under but even after reading scary wire reports of “up to 200 regional banks at
risk”, it’s not quite as far-fetched as you’d imagine. For one thing, the USA could in its wisdom
decide to raised the FDIC guarantee to $500k, or $1m, or even higher if it so desires. For
3

another, last week set a clear precedent of bail-outs (or “bail-ins”, as critics accuse) and there’s
no reason why a country with access to what is, in practical terms, unlimited US Dollars cannot
go around bailing out (in) small bank after small bank. Finally, if the Fed really wants to fight
inflation, nothing will slow down velocity of money like a large bottleneck stuck in the banking
system. A few banks going illiquid and stopping the populace from spending all its money would
help bring down the stubborn inflation level, for sure.
We discard the three less likely and get to the point. The three scenarios above are unlikely and
students of the markets have already noted what “Fed Whisperer” Nick Timiraos of The NYT
tipped to the world (1) on Friday:
The Federal Reserve’s decision on whether to raise interest rates by 25 basis points or
implement no rate hike at next week’s policy meeting could depend on what happens
in the coming days, said Nick Timiraos, chief economics correspondent at The Wall
Street Journal.
In other words, next week The Fed will raise rates by the amount proscribed by the market, i.e.
25bps. No fuss, no upsets, no surprises, it will not try and “do something.” However, you can
all-but guarantee that alongside the substance of a rates rise, we’ll get plenty of style from the
FOMC statement and the Jay Powell presser, half an hour after the announcement. Expect a
mountain of jawbone, expect analysts to such their teeth at the dot plot, expect Mr. Powell to
insist they are being serious about inflation, expect the phrase “data driven” to come up over
and again, expect him to leave the door wide open for future and multiple rate hikes if the
FOMC deems them necessary. He’ll put on his serious hat and say serious things because it’s in
the Fed’s best interest to keep the stock market from melting up. We’ve said it before and we’ll
say it again, the last thing he needs while trying to crimp money supply to goods and services is
a country that feels rich.
The game isn’t over at 2pm in Wednesday, it’s when it begins and the +25bps announcement is
the first part of Jay Powell’s unfolding strategy to have his cake and eat it. Banks don’t want it
to tighten fast? Okay, the Fed backs off but with 25bps this time, it can maintain the façade of
being data driven for at least one more cycle. Meanwhile, the cash-crunched banks are thrown
the necessary lifelines and the Fed can point to the reductions in CPI and PPI to promote its
cause. And be clear, his audience is NOT people like you and I, the cynical proponents of
holding gold bullion and protecting one’s net wealth from financial storms by taking at least one
step outside the regulated and counter-partied financial system. He’s not trying to convince us
because he never will, instead he’s looking to the dual audiences of grassroots consumer and
sophisticated banking executive.
 The grassroots consumer wants reassurance that her/his money is safe and available.
That their credit card will work no problems. That the 401k isn’t about to explode.
 The sophisticated banking executive wants a clear pathway out of this mess. If Jay
Powell provides one, they have far too much at stake to start turning their collective
backs on the very core of the world’s financial system. It’s too late for rebellion.
Ultimately, the days ahead are less about which regional bank hits the skids or what policy
tweak happens to shore up a creaking system or whether UBS pays 50c, a buck or a buck 50
for Credit Suisse. It’s all about instilling confidence in the Fed and its policies, in the US financial
system and ultimately, in the US Dollar itself. So be clear, my friendly gold-centric readership:
YOU ARE NOT THE FED’S AUDIENCE
Your not Ms Yellen’s audience, or Warren Buffett’s audience either for that matter. When
markets get rough the real money, the big money, will run first to the widest and safest door in
the standard financial world, i.e. Treasurys. There is a place for gold and I’m certainly not
discounting its value or use, but for gold to show true leverage to other asset class devices it
needs to get a boost from its main driver. Gold is the quintessential Fear Trade and some
money will always be more coward, but a wholesale flight from US debt into non-counterparty
asset would mean something far more nefarious for the state of the financial world. So gold up
a hundred here, down 20 there, is interesting and of course, makes for lucrative trading in
4

metals and the miners, but takes a lot more than that for the Fed to stop merely watching gold
as a bellwether. So for sure the Fed will be watching the
price action in gold bullion more closely than normal, but for
different reasons as they care a lot more about the way the
2yr paper moved up compared to 10yr and saw the inversed
yield curve start to unwind last week (right).
This bit part role for gold also shows in our continued
tracking of GLD inventories. The good news, GLD holdings
finally made an upmove last week, adding around 13 metric
tonnes reach 921mt on Friday.
The bad news, it’s hardly a blip in this chart 2022 to date:
GLD gold holdings, 2022 to date (metric tonnes)
1120
1100
1080
1060
1040
1020
1000
980
960
940
920
900
880
860
5
12/21/13 22/1/41 22/1/82 22/2/11 22/2/52 22/3/11 22/3/52 22/4/8 22/4/22 22/5/6 22/5/02 22/6/3 22/6/71 22/7/1 22/7/51 22/7/92 22/8/21 22/8/62 22/9/9 22/9/32 22/01/7 22/01/12 22/11/4 22/11/81 22/21/2 22/21/61 22/21/03 32/1/31 32/1/72 32/2/01 32/2/42 32/3/01
mt
source: SPDR GLD data
For more, here are two versions of our Inventory/Price ratio and indeed, the tonnage added
wasn’t even enough to counter the full weight of the price rally and this weekend has the ratio
at a new all-time low of 5.04X…The Most Unpopular Gold Price Rally Of All Time continues
unabated. Perhaps the GLD storage vaults are suffering a lag on getting the physical allocation
after that sharp move and we’ll see more bars added in the days to come, but it would take the
addition of nearly 180mt just to get that squiggly line back up to 6x, our previous idea of
sentiment washout minimum:
8.50 GLD: Inventory/Price Ratio, 2016 to date
8.00
7.50
7.00
6.50
6.00
5.50
5.00
4.50
4.00
So what to make of all this? Gold melted up quickly last week when the SVB bank failure looked
set to hit some of the other weak links in the chain, but when the people making the rules can
also make virtually unlimited dollars to cover losses and allow mom and pop to be “fully
confident” that their money is safe, they also manage to stop the worst of the Fear Trade from
happening. Will gold drop some or drift up a little now? I don’t know, both are perfectly
possible and if you put a gun to my head, I’d probably plump for something in between and call
for gold to break U$2,000/oz in the days ahead but not break away from the line, remaining in
a range around the 2-handle. That might come as bitter disappointment for the average gold
bug and if you’re ine reading these words, I apologize for raining on parades. However, I’m
61/4/1 61/61/3 61/62/5 61/8/8 61/81/01 61/92/21 71/41/3 71/42/5 71/4/8 71/61/01 71/72/21 81/21/3 81/22/5 81/2/8 81/21/01 81/42/21 91/8/3 91/02/5 91/13/7 91/01/01 91/02/21 02/5/3 02/51/5 02/82/7 02/7/01 02/71/21 12/3/3 12/11/5 12/22/7 12/1/01 12/31/21 22/42/2 22/6/5 22/02/7 22/92/9 22/9/21 32/32/2
6.80 GLD: Inventory/Price Ratio, 2022 to date
6.60
6.40
6.20
6.00
5.80
5.60
5.40
5.20
Source: SPDR data, IKN calcs
5.00
4.80
12/21/13 22/1/41 22/1/82 22/2/11 22/2/52 22/3/11 22/3/52 22/4/8 22/4/22 22/5/6 22/5/02 22/6/3 22/6/71 22/7/1 22/7/51 22/7/92 22/8/21 22/8/62 22/9/9 22/9/32 22/01/7 22/01/12 22/11/4 22/11/81 22/21/2 22/21/61 22/21/03 32/1/31 32/1/72 32/2/01 32/2/42 32/3/01
Source: SPDR data, IKN calcs

only remaining true to form and no matter whether priced at U$1,600/oz or U$2,200/oz you’ll
always hear me using the same reason for ownership: You don’t own gold to make you rich,
you own it to stop yourself from becoming poor.
The PM stocks are quite another matter, however. If we truly are moving into an economic
contraction and lower inflation, as long as gold remains at-or-around U$2,000 mining company
margins expand accordingly and become popular alternatives for deep pocketed fund managers
looking for defensive plays. That, I believe, was the overriding reason for the rush of cash into
the GDX and component stocks on Thursday and Friday, not because we were about to get a
wholesale collapse of the banking system and financial world. After all, who would want to won
any equity of any company in that world?
Jay Powell is up on Wednesday and he’s the Confidence Man at the centre of the show. Expect
him to do exactly what the market expects him to do (raise 25), expect him to warn of things to
come and try to take the edge of any broad market rebound (he doesn’t want you to feel rich),
expect the Yield Curve to unwind further as people come for the two-year paper. And as for
gold, as long at The Confidence Man does his job it should consolidate at/around its new level
as some modest re-buying occurs and that would be enough for today’s cause, because the PM
miners should perform well even without further rocket rises in the metal.
And hey, anyone dreaming of an immediate jump to U$2,500/oz or some other wild number for
gold ought to take a step back and meditate on that wise saw, “Be careful what you wish for.”
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Adding Newcore Gold (NCAU.v) and AbraSilver (ABRA.v)
There are plenty of ways of trading the new, near-$2k gold price…
[EDIT Saturday evening: Gold it’s opened to the downside on news of bank bailouts, backstops and a
concerted effort from industrialized national central banks to work together and provide liquidity. I still
think we’ll see gold trade a 2-handle in the days to come]
…and the job of today’s edition was mostly done in today’s Intro section, seen above. The IKN
Weekly tries hard not to treat its audience like nodding donkeys, there’s no carrot or stick
exhortations or breathless pumping into this-or-that stock (though I would like you all to own at
least some Minera Alamos, especially at these prices) so the real message of today is to position
into gold (or PM) stocks now that the market is coming round to the benefits of the sector, with
inflation dropping away and margins increasing again. It’s under those auspices that we present
a concise Fundies section today, we get to the point. Last week’s gold move doesn’t have to
keep moving higher at the rate it did on Monday or on Friday, it’s enough at this point to see it
stick at/around the U$2,000/oz level for the whole PM mining sector to benefit accordingly.
That means you do not need my help or advice on which-or-other gold stock to choose, as
most of you already have your favourites and the great majority of IKN Weekly readers know a
quality stock from a dog (with or without its wagging tails).
Thus today’s main point is made, get long PM stocks and if your specific choice is different
from the two below, fine by me. However, when it comes to trading this publication is firmly
based on what I do with my own money, you now get thoughts on both NCAU and ABRA. I too
had other options of course. For example and even though I kind of promised not to mention it
again without adding it to the Stocks to Follow list, Equinox Gold (EQX) is now up 32% from the
start of its focus series here at The IKN Weekly, the note “Equinox Gold (EQX) 4q22 financials
review” in IKN419, dated February 26th. That’s a sharp rise and one look at the EQX price chart
will show its potential to move higher under the right circumstances for a high-cash cost
leveraged equity. EQX is a valid choice, but instead of adding a new name I’ve decided to add
to two positions already opened and now it’s time to outline why in as few words as possible.
6

Adding Newcore Gold (NCAU.v): After eight pages of humming and hawing over NCAU last
weekend, pointing to the unlucky and somewhat unfair its MRE announcement was treated by
the market two weeks ago only to decide to call “Hold” and wait and see on any addition,
what’s changed my mind in the space of seven days. Well, that’s easy enough and the answer
is found in the conclusion to last week’s note. Here’s a repeat, with some bold type to help the
reader’s eye:
As for the trade potential here, there are three main factors.
1) NCAU is currently oversold. However and to paraphrase JM Keynes, we know from
experience that an exploreco can stay oversold longer than we can remain solvent.
2) It’s going to raise capital soon and when it does, that placement will drag on any
potential or actual price rebound action.
3) But the biggest influence is the gold price. If gold goes up, NCAU will be
able to break through its headwinds and move back to more reasonable equity
valuations, considering its status and progress along the development track.
I am tempted to buy at these current levels and add to my position, knowing full well
NCAU may remain stagnant for a few more weeks or even months before the market
recognizes the deep value on gold ounces that have improved in quality and are a cut
above the average junior exploreco’s 43-101 inferred resource. The reason to wait
awhile is the upcoming round of financing, but even that might happen at a
higher price than this weekend’s 19.5c if gold decides to run and return to the
levels many expect (your author included) as 2023 rolls out.
The good news is that we didn’t have to wait long. The better news is that between then and
now, NCAU did something else I half-expected and traded lower:
The 18.5c close on the week was a penny lower than in IKN721, but if I had been brave
enough 17c was on offer back there before the market for gold stories turned with a
vengeance. So, as well as getting the gold price upside required by this stock, we also get the
opportunity to buy in at well under 20c. That’s a real bargain in my book and a stock being mis-
priced by the market due to its bad read on what was, I now believe, a decent and valid
Mineral Resource Estimate update. That the market couldn’t get past the headline 1.7m oz
number is now my idea of buyer’s advantage.
Adding AbraSilver (ABRA.v): The reason why I’ve decided to risk another addition and
average-down on the only silver play own? Friday afternoon’s price action. After what was set
to become another irritating week for ABRA stock ownership, it finally perked up and reacted
well to the Friday run in PM stocks. As seen in this chart below, for once was trading nicely with
its peers. Then suddenly…
7

…along with a list of other junior PM companies, ABRA got hit by the silver juniors ETF SILJ as
it made its quarterly weighting adjustments and in the case of our focus stock, SILJ dumped a
little over 1.6m shares onto its notoriously thin the market in a short space of time. The result
was a new multi-year low at the close of 26.5c and your author snorting with cynical laughter.
The fingerprints of SILJ were seen in several places in fact, with stocks such as Santa Cruz
Silver (SCZ.v) up massively on late Friday volume as SILJ muscled in on a new larger weighting
for that stock. Other movers to the upside were Mako Mining (MKO.v) and its royalty/streamer
sister company Sailfish (FISH.v) which saw SILJ take a new and a larger position, respectively.
But there were losers as well as ABRA, for example previous personal holding Discovery Silver
(DSV.v) lost weighting and took its own hit. These fat finger trades from operators of an WTF,
quite frankly, should know a lot better than this and are doing their own ETF no favours, bend
market prices out of shape for a temporary period but they tend to adjust back quickly.
However, ABRA looks a particularly egregious case it was already far from a more reasonable
baseline level (let’s say 40c) for a company with a standout asset, even before the dumpage of
late last week cramped its style. As such and even though I’m not a big fan of silver, this price
in the newly bullish atmosphere for PM trades is too low to resist and I’m going to take
advantage, adding some more and making it slightly out-sized for my own comfort.
Aside the trading anomaly, we also had real news from ABRA last week with another strong drill
result out of Diablillos and more specifically, the JAC zone. The headline intercept was the title
of that March 14th NR (8)
“AbraSilver Drills Best Silver Intercept to Date at the JAC Zone, 32,481 g/t Ag over 1
Metre Within Broader Intercept of 3,025 g/t Ag over 14 Metres in Oxides” but along
with the cut, the location was also highly positive.
This drill map spots hole 004 in the place that most suits the designer of the next pit shell at
Diablillos, as JAC is now tantalizingly close to connecting with the central Oculto resource
8

The oxide cut is depp and would entail plenty of pre-strip if a standalone, but as this second
chart shows we’re now getting close to the point where stripping could take place while Oculto
is mined and as its current shell would have to go deeper in order to accommodate the newly
discovered and high grade Tesoro zone (directly under the Oculto open pit resource), there’s a
expanded pit taking shape in the Andean foothills of Argentina.
So, good drill numbers once again and even more reason to like this stock on its fundies, but
the main reason to add ABRA in the days to come is to take advantage of the discount window
and average down.
Stocks to Follow
Our junior-centric Stocks to Follow list with its heavy quota of copper exposure didn’t do as well
as the big precious metals mining companies last week, so for the big moves please see The
Producer Basket, below. Here it’s a mixed bag of results, with six winners (MAI.v, SOLG.to,
RIO.v, CKG.v, ALDE.v, ATC.v) from the 14 open positions, two unchanged stocks (ORX.v,
MENE.v) and six week-over-week losers (ARG.to, QCCU.v, ABRA.v, NCAU.v, MIRL.cse, CTGO).
The only double figure percentage move came from Minera IRL, that dropped a penny in real
money and 25% in value.
We currently have 14 covered stocks (12 owned personally), six fewer than our self-imposed
maximum. Six are in the green.
9

company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.39 85.7% $0.75 first tgt, #1 idea
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Amerigo Res ARG.to STR BUY C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.46 7.4% Main Cu trade, top fundies
SolGold SOLG.to STR BUY C$0.265 19-Feb-23 C$0.285 7.5% New Cu trade Feb'23, M&A tgt
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v SPEC BUY C$0.275 25-Apr-21 C$0.145 -47.3% MRE now due 2q23, annoying
AbraSilver Res. ABRA.v ADDING C$0.37 4-Dec-22 C$0.265 -28.4% compelling addition price
Newcore Gold NCAU.v ADDING C$0.21 23-Oct-22 C$0.185 -11.9% MRE better than it looked.
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v SPEC BUY C$0.83 22-Apr-18 C$0.18 -78.3% Cheap on permit probs, appeal
SPECULATIVE TRADES
Orefinders ORX.v.v SPEC BUY C$0.04 23-Oct-22 C$0.04 0.0% build position at 4c
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v SPEC BUY C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$2.14 -30.3% Au leverage, small trade so far
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v BUY C$0.72 16-May-21 C$0.98 36.1% drill assays from March'23
Minera IRL MIRL.cse avoid C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.03 -84.6% run into ground byCEO, AVOID
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
ATAC Res ATC.v WATCH C$0.095 11-Sep-22 C$0.135 42.1% Cheap Yukon neighbour play
Contango Ore CTGO WATCH U$23.25 2-Dec-22 U$22.76 -2.1% watching for financing package
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.63 6-Dec-20 C$0.36 -42.9% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2023 date closed close price
Altiplano Metals APN.v jan'23 C$0.31 17-Sep-21 C$0.17 -45.2% delayed and will dilute soon
Western Copper WRN.to mar'23 C$2.02 13-Nov-22 C$2.32 14.9% sold on reduced M&A prob.
2015 to 2022 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on some of the covered companies:
Aldebaran Resources (ALDE.v): It’s still under a Loonie and shouldn’t be, but last week’s
98c close for ALDE is the highest stock price since March of last year and as this chart shows,
perhaps more importantly we’re finally getting
some modest trade volume comino for the
stock on a near-daily basis. The perennial
issue with all the Black/Heather vehicles, even
Antares in days of yore, due largely to the way
so many shares get locked up in instos and
seed backers and the remaining float attracts
the same typo of tight hand mentality from
the retail brigade. Seeing the ALDe market
free up a little is a key step in seeing the stock
trade higher.
We’ve known since early February and IKN716
that ALDE was looking to get its next drill
results to market “by the end of March”, which
we interpret as “April” due to the company’s awful record of keeping to any sort of schedule.
However, I’m also open to surprises so with the time window now opening up, we may get the
follow-up to the recent and interesting long hole at any time.
SolGold (SOLG.to): Take a breather please, fellow SOLG longs. The entry timing was good
and on a personal level, three purchases have built it quickly into one of my largest positions,
but we cannot expect M&A On Demand and if it takes a while to get Jiangxi on the hook, then
so be it. The first target isn’t to get an official and friendly offer that gets dumped into the lap
of BHP, the first
10

Chesapeake Gold (CKG.v): It’s annoying to watch gold spike to U$2,000/oz and seeing CKG
fail to react as we wait on the highly delayed met results. Then again, it’s a small and
speculative position and if Alan Pangbourne eventually delivers what he thinks he can from the
met testing, there will be plenty of opportunity to
load up on CKG shares later and take advantage
of its massive leverage to gold. Holding.
Minera IRL (MIRL.cse): From bad to worse and
now a 3c stock, the market is telling you all you
need to know about its chances of holding on to
Ollachea. Until this self-serving and deceitful
management team is replaced, MIRL is a hard
avoid.
The Copper Basket
After eleven weeks of 2023, The Copper Basket shows a loss of 2.10% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Solaris Res SLS.to 6.44 114.56 599.15 5.23 -18.8%
2 Western Copper WRN.to 2.41 151.597 360.80 2.38 -1.2%
3 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.22 88.028 305.46 3.47 7.8%
4 Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to 1.92 105.96 196.03 1.85 -3.6%
5 Oroco Res OCO.v 0.91 207.034 153.21 0.74 -18.7%
6 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.78 139.007 136.23 0.98 25.6%
7 Faraday Copper FDY.to 0.54 166.137 134.57 0.81 50.0%
8 Hot Chili HCH.v 0.78 119.455 95.56 0.80 2.6%
9 Regulus Res. REG.v 1.10 124.509 94.63 0.76 -30.9%
10 Pan Global Res PGZ.v 0.46 212.145 74.25 0.35 -23.9%
11 Kodiak Copper KDK.v 1.12 55.6 51.71 0.93 -17.0%
12 QC Copper QCCU.v 0.165 150.736 21.86 0.145 -12.1%
13 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.16 86.966 17.39 0.20 25.0%
14 Libero Copper LBC.v 0.155 93.869 12.20 0.13 -16.1%
15 Atacama Copper ACOP.v 0.16 34.373 5.50 0.16 0.0%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg -2.10%
11

The Copper Basket average lost 0.8% on the week to close at its low for 2023 YTD, with the
unfavourable count of just five winners (SLS.to,
WRN.to, ALDE.v, KDKJ.v, ECU.v) and two 10% The Copper Basket 2023, weekly evolution
9%
unchanged stocks (OCO.v, FDY.to) outweighed
8%
by eight losers (MARI.to, ASCU.to, HCH.v, 7%
6%
PGZ.v, REG.v, QCCU.v, LBC.v, ACOP.v). 5%
4%
However, most of the moves either way were 3%
2%
small and only two moves in double percentage 1%
0%
figures, with the week’s best Element 29 (ECU.v -1%
-2%
up 21.2%) and the week’s worst Atacama -3%
Copper (ACOP.v down 15.8%).
Two copper price charts for you this weekend,
the first a comparative of spot copper (HG00) vs spot gold (GC00) to show the different
fortunes of the two metals:
It was all the gold all the time as the Fear Trade took precedence and copper swooned on the
implied recession fears from a newly volatile financial backdrop. To risk a little
anthropomorphism, copper clung valiantly onto the U$4.00/lb line until early Wednesday, but
the weight of orthodox trade money that began pricing in doom scenarios and discarding once
and for all the “no landing”/”soft landing” scenarios for The US economy put paid to that
particular line in the sand. This leads us to the longer-term visual with a little basic technical
chart analysis thrown in for good measure (I remain strictly amateur on the subject):
Without trying to tempt fate, copper traded better than I expected on the wild Friday just gone
and found a bottom in the high U$3.80s. If this were a classic and orthodox recession scenario,
we wouldn’t see stops in the metal with the PhD in economics until it found its variable costs
base. Instead and even after an apparent correction, copper remains impressively profitable for
12
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91
source: IKN calcs

most every large metals mining company and that’s because it continues to benefit from its
secular bull market and for that we need to look beyond The USA for the reasons. Indeed, it’s
time to mention China and here’s a quote out of Rio Tinto last week (3):
The short-term outlook for copper is “pretty healthy,” with global stockpiles trending
down and mine disruptions having eroded supply from Latin America, Rio Tinto’s head
of copper Bold Baatar said on Tuesday.
“We’re seeing pretty good fundamentals,” he told Reuters after the opening of the
underground phase of the Oyu Tolgoi copper mine in Mongolia, which is set to be the
world’s fourth-largest copper mine when it is fully operational.
“Physical stocks of inventories of copper are at multi-year lows,” he said, adding that
copper demand in China was “relatively strong.”
That won’t come as much of a surprise to regular readers of The Copper Basket, data continue
to indicate strong demand for copper in its bigger market by far, that aside from all those well-
documented long-term forecasts and the upcoming Brave New World of flying cars and homes
generating their own electricity. Or something like that.
For those of us who care about fundamentals of the metals market, on Tuesday (4) Fitch
Ratings upped its forecast and price assumptions for a range of metals, including copper, Here’s
the full table which also includes its changes to gold, iron ore, zinc, other metals and coal types
(we add a little red on the copper line item):
In its crib notes, Fitch had the following to say about its decision:
Our increased copper assumptions for 2023-2025 reflect our expectation of a tight
balance in the market. China’s re-opening will support growing short-term demand as
China accounts for 55% of global refined copper consumption. Medium- and long-term
demand for copper is supported by the energy transition. Still, mine underperformance
in Chile, political protests in Peru and recent issues in the smelting sector may
constrain copper supply.
Admittedly, the price assumptions of a ratings agency are nobody’s idea of a lead indicator for
prices or something on which to base a trade in a junior exploreco. Instead, they are best
considered a baseline from which to work and for what it’s worth, the “long-term” assumption
of U$7,000/mt (U$3.17/lb) for copper is main takeaway from the table. That’s the number
juniors and those looking to fund projects can reasonably use in conversation with financiers
and these days draws a clear line under the price of the metal, even in extreme market sell-off
conditions.
Enough long-term musings, it’s time to switch gears and consider what’s been happening in the
wonderful world of copper inventories this week and we are glad to report that no stone bags
have been found in LME copper warehouse stocks…yet.
 The drop in world stocks continued apace last week, a clear bullish signal for continued
strong demand out of China. The aggregate total of the three main world systems this
weekend dropped by another big chunk, down 29,656 metric tonnes (mt) to close at
270,765mt.
13

 It’s all about the SHFE. See the dedicated charts below for the visual cue, but the raw
number drop of 32,631mt to close this weekend at 182,341mt, well under the 200k line
and a very speedy depletion from the recent top, speaks alone.
 The LME saw a continuation of its recent trend, with copper inventories rising by a
modest 2,975mt to close the week at 74,700mt (still extremely tight, of course).
 Comex stocks went down 89mt to this weekend’s 13,724mt, that’s another small
outflow and another multi-year inventory low.
The dedicated tracking charts are eloquent on the speed at which SHFE stocks have come off
their traditional Chinese New Year peak. In our six year survey in the first chart, stocks have
gone from the fastest move above 200k to the fastest drop below the line, with only last year’s
anomaly as the outlier.
SHFE copper inventory levels, 2018 to 2023
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
14
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
MT Cu 2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
source: Cochilco data
Mr. Bataar of RTZ has plenty of backing for his position on good Chinese copper demand, right
here:
Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2014 to date
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
31'13ceD dr32 ht51 ht7 ht03 dn22 ht71 ht9 ts1von ht42 ht71 ht01 dn2tcO 7102ts1naJ ht62 ht81 ht01 dr3ced ht52 102ht72rpa ht91 ht11 9102
dr3bef
102ht82rpa ts12 ht31 0202ht5naj 202ht92ram ts12 ht31 0202ht6ced ht82 dr32 ht51 ht7 202ht03naj ht42 ht71 ht9 3202
naJ
Mt Cu
|
source: Cochilco
Now for some notes on a couple of basket component stocks:
Oroco Resources (OCO.v): OCO has traded weakly so far this year, or more specifically since
December 2022 when it got dumped during the Tax Loss Selling season. It hasn’t managed to
recover the lost ground so far this year so on Friday, we saw the insto backers trying to draw a
line under the stock price (5):
VANCOUVER, British Columbia – (March 17, 2023) Oroco Resource Corp. (TSX-V:
OCO, OTC: ORRCF) (“Oroco” or “the Company”) is pleased to announce that it has
closed a non-brokered private placement (the “Private Placement”) raising gross
proceeds of $4,758,727.55 through the sale of a total of 6,344,970 units at a price of
$0.75 per unit. Each unit consists of one share and one-half of one share purchase
warrant. Each whole share purchase warrant entitles the holder to purchase one share
for a period of 24 months from closing at a price of $1.05 per share.
The shares and any shares issued pursuant to the exercise of the warrants are subject

to a hold period expiring July 18, 2023.
OCO burns its treasury quite quickly and under normal
circumstances the approx C$4.5m net isn’t enough to
cover two quarters. It has an IKN estimated C$7m left
in treasury so this financing is next considered a top-
up, but it came without advertising and at recent lows.
The interpretation is of a company giving its long-term
backers the opportunity to get in cheaply (and with a
half warrant at $1.05) before the work to build equity
back up begins. Overall and acceptable strategy and it
was also good to see company Chair and head honcho
Craig Dalziel take 200,000 units of the financing.
Pan Global Resources (PGZ.v): The most
disappointing of the 2023 list newbies so far, PGZ got
dumped by what might have been an unwelcome side-
effect of its news last week. On Wednesday PGZ
announced (6) its secondary US listing had been
upgraded from the pinksheets to the more easily
accessed OTCQB market. Is it, therefore, mere
coincidence that after an extended period of thin
trading, the next two days saw the stock dump on what
looks like a single seller? Maybe a US holder took the
first chance to exit, maybe not.
Element 29 Resources (ECU.v): As longer-term readers may recall, I owned some shares of
this company for a period, I like the assets in Peru and in particular the Elida project in the
North (Flor de Cobre seems to be dragging its heels on
community relations and permitting). We got results
from Elida on March 6th (7) that didn’t get a mention at
the time, even though the (quote), “404.5 m of 0.45%
copper (“Cu”), 0.032% molybdenum (“Mo”), and 3.6 g/t
silver (“Ag”) for 0.60% copper equivalent” from hole
032 was a decent cut. This drill map shows ECU drilled
where they could reasonably expect success, smack in
the middle of Target 1 and I still wish they’d stick some
drills into Target 5 and test what could be a distal/skarn
zone. But that’s another program now, hopefully for a
day in 2024.
Anyway, ECU did the direct opposite of PGZ seen above
and after a long period of thin trading, volume came on
Thursday and Friday and sent the stock back up a few
pennies. It’s been under 20c for a long time, with
copper showing the way it has shown it makes sense to
see people bottom fishing for beaten down bargains.
15

The Producer Basket
After 11 weeks of 2023, the Producer Basket shows a loss of 5.20% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 47.20 799 38.49 48.17 2.1%
2 Barrick GOLD 17.18 1761.54 31.92 18.12 5.5%
3 Agnico Eagle AEM 51.99 488.9 24.86 50.84 -2.2%
4 Wheaton PM WPM 39.08 451.963 20.47 45.30 15.9%
5 Kinross Gold KGC 4.09 1256.1 5.19 4.13 1.0%
6 Alamos Gold AGI 10.11 393.1 4.45 11.32 12.0%
7 B2Gold BTG 3.57 1074.567 3.93 3.66 2.5%
8 Hecla Mining GFI 5.56 603.86 3.38 5.59 0.5%
9 Eldorado Gold EGO 8.36 185.73 1.84 9.90 18.4%
10 Wesdome Gold WDOFF 5.53 142.287 0.76 5.33 -3.6%
All prices and stock quotes in U$ Port. avg 5.20%
One of those dream weeks for large-scale precious metals producers. Gold up, the US Dollar
basically flat and the world looking for safe havens from the broad markets combined to put PM
stocks in the contrarian spotlight but, as we noted
in today’s intro, it took until Friday for the equities
to show positive divergence from the price of gold
and move forward on their own.
As for our list, no surprises for guessing that all ten
of our stocks returned week-over-week gains and
they were impressively sized, too, the smallest of
the ten being the +8.1% of Hecla (HL). Also and
with the rebounding Wesdome (WDOFF up 16.1%)
as exception proving the rule, the notable tendency
was for the biggest gold stocks to make the best
moves. The bigboy money piled into the easiest and
most liquid tickers available to them on the NYSE
and that means Newmont (NEM up 14.3%), Barrick (GOLD up 13.9%) and the main ETFs (GDX
up 12.4%) had great weeks, better than smaller issues such as B2Gold (BTG up 9.6%),
Eldorado (EGO up 8.6%) or the main juniors ETF (GDXJ up 11.6%). In a “normal bull” week
we’d expect the smaller and more leveraged juniors to do better than the Tier 1 stocks, but not
last week.
The 2023 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
comparative to GDX control
16%
14% 12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
Newmont (NEM) and Newcrest (NCM): The “will-they-won’t-they” of Newmont and
Newcrest saw interesting action on Friday when Newcrest in US markets (NCMGY) under-
performed significantly compared to both its potential buyer (NEM) and the market benchmark
(GDX). The two-day chart (right) shows the story and that action comes after multiple reports
hit the press last week that the two sides had agreed to non-disclosure agreement (NDA) terms
16
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91
The 2023 Producer Basket: Percentage difference
between GDX benchmark & basket (negative = IKN ahead)
4.0%
ikn 3.5%
gdx control 3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
source: NYSE, IKN calcs ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91
source: IKN calcs, NYSE data

and would sit down to talk and potentially negotiate for the first time since the NEM deal were
tabled.
Unsurprisingly, NCM thinks it’s worth more than the current all-scrip bid while NEM thinks its
offer is already generous, but the market reaction last week suggests that the return of the bull
market for PM stocks may have priced the deal out of reach for NEM.
Wesdome (WDO.to) (WDOFF): Some ho hum news on mineral reserves and resources from
WDO early on Monday (8) was soon forgotten by the market and presented zero friction when
the sector rally got underway. WDO rebounded bigtime and even had the chattering classes
wondering if WDO had come under scrutiny as an M&A target. The latter, in my opinion is
highly unlikely until Kiena is up and showing that it can put corporate theory into practice.
We’re also unlikely to see the WDO board accept a deal at the current Penalty Box level or until
such time as a replacement CEO is installed. Anyway, here’s the main Proven & Probable
Reserves table from the NR and please note the changes in contained ounces at both Eagle and
Kiena:
These totals do not include the 350,000 oz of total Measured and Indicated resources at its
mines, nor the total inferred resources of 1.069m oz Au, so feel free to consult the NR for the
deeper numbers, but the notable result is the drop in overall P+P reserves compared to
production.
 In 2022, WDO produced 82,000 oz from Eagle River (Eagle UG 80k, Mishi open pit 2k).
At the same time, P+P dropped by 124,000 oz.
 In 2022, WDO produced 28,848oz from Kiena, at the same same P+P reserves dropped
by 45,000oz.
Presumably due to the rise in cost inputs and this also jives with the modest increases in P+P
grades as seen in the table, as some of the marginal rock has likely been moved to waste.
17

Overall, WDO has never been a company able to fall back on a massive level of reserves or
resources, the nature of this beast is to continue exploring its rich deposit sites and keep a few
years ahead of production, rather than sit of tens of millions of ounces. That’s one of the
reason it runs such a high P/E ratio and why its ongoing quarterly operational results matter for
the stock price. WDO is measured on the free cash flow it creates and that’s why its rough
period at a critical time last year hit the equity price as hard as it did. But, as Hammy Hamster
often explained, that is another story (9).
The TinyCaps List
After 11 weeks of 2023, the TinyCaps show a gain of 36.20% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Aurelius Min AUL.v 0.07 49.787 2.99 0.06 -14.3%
Coast Copper COCO.v 0.045 64.001 4.16 0.065 44.4%
District Metals DMX.v 0.075 86.891 16.94 0.195 140.0%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.13 69.962 17.84 0.255 65.4%
Manitou Gold MTU.v 0.02 344.568 15.51 0.045 150.0%
Nine Mile Metals NINE.cse 0.29 57.025 12.83 0.225 -22.4%
Palamina Corp PA.v 0.08 65.285 6.20 0.095 18.8%
Precipitate Gold PRG.v 0.075 130.367 9.78 0.075 0.0%
South Star STS.v 0.55 32.755 16.71 0.51 -12.7%
Viva Gold VAU.v 0.14 91.608 11.91 0.13 -7.1%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 36.20%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $20m. They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a
little and allowed sub-U$20m market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, but it was a particularly depressing exercise to trawl through the whole of the TSXV and find companies
that are small enough, but with life in them. The vast majority of sub-$20m stocks are broken stocks, either
traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2023. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with
projects that can work. TinyCaps, 2023 weekly tracker
 Decent management if possible. When you are down 50%
45%
among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too choosy, but
40%
still I preferred companies that have teams or people with 35%
good peer reputations. 30%
25%
The TinyCaps list continued on its contrarian way and 20%
while the big caps rocketed higher, this basket average 15%
10%
lost 2.5% with just three winners (COCO.v, MTU.v, 5%
PRG.v) and two unchanged stocks (AUL.v, VAU.v), so 0%
that’s five losers (DMX.v, LMS.v, NINE.cse, PA.v,
STS.v).
District Metals (DMX.v): It didn’t quite get to the 15c
we proscribed last week in IKN721 as the place you might
consider DMX, but the 16.5c low and the 18c close on
Friday underscored our opinion of how heavily this stock
was pumped into and through PDAC. Heavy promo is a
double-edged sword, but the least we should do is identify
cases. That way we can make more informed decisions.
18
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21 ht91
source: IKN calcs, TSX data

Nine Mile Metals (NINE.cse): A reminder of why we included NINE.cse as one of the
TinyCap stocks for 2023, here’s the last paragraph of the blurb we used in IKN711 when
introducing it:
NINE made plenty of market noise in late 2022 and saw its share price climb from
pennies to its current level as a result. If it can return a hole that gives high grade VMS
mineralization and the type of widths that make a mine, the sky’s the limit. On the other
hand, this is exploreco speculation and if it turns out to have just a few thinnish lenses
stacked between barren material, the story will become a tougher sell. Worth watching
this year and the drillbit has demonstrated it potential, so it’s part of the 2023 TinyCaps
scene.
We’re now six weeks into the latest 5,000m drill program at NINE and we don’t know when the
assay results will start flowing. It’s tough to know in fact,
considering the mostly shallow depths being drilled this time
on the one hand, while on the other that infamous lag in lab
turnarounds in Canada at the moment. But if the chart is a
clue, the drill bit hasn’t found anything as exciting as the
first pass discovery holes of 2022 so far. We should
remember that NINE was also heavily promoted last year
and even went the “XRF Route”, releasing core photos and
unofficial readings from hand-held mineral readers before
any official assays had come back form the labs. As such,
it’s exactly the type of stock that might suddenly move on
no news before “word gets out” of an impressive drill hole.
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future
I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
Ecuador: Political headlines and earthquakes
When 15 people die (14 in Ecuador, 1 in Peru) and 831 people are injured due to the event, it’s
not right to say that the consequences of the three large earthquakes that hit Ecuador
yesterday were good. However, there is a sense of a bullet having being missed as the South-
coastal and South inland zones of the country could have been hit harder and we also know
that most businesses and infrastructure got out unscathed. Therefore we move on the to
political events of its week.
Ecuador made some business and political headlines last week when the country’s parliament
formalized its accusations against President Guillermo Lasso. We go to Reuters for the basic
story (10):
QUITO, March 16 (Reuters) - A group of opposition legislators in Ecuador has formally
requested to hold impeachment hearings against President Guillermo Lasso on
allegations of corruption, which Lasso has vehemently denied.
Lawmakers earlier this month backed a report accusing Lasso of connections to
possible crimes against state security and public administration, amid investigations by
the attorney general's office into alleged graft at state companies.
That sounds serious, but in reality it’s going to take a lot more to get Lasso to step down (or be
fired) from his job. The process to impeach the President got over its first step last week and
will likely get over the second of four in the days to come when a technical committee inside
Parliament approves of the draft measure. That’s when things get difficult for Lasso’s opponents
(and there are many), as the third step of the proposal is to make its way through and get
approval from the country’s Constitutional Court (CC), which in theory would be followed by a
final vote in Congress that would need at least 92 of the 137 seats in its favour. As it happens,
there may well now be 92 votes to get him out but the sticking point is the third one, the CC.
Supposedly an independent branch of power, the CC is known as sympathetic to Lasso’s cause
19

and will almost certainly delay, obfuscate and hold up passage of the bill indefinitely. As such,
without extra effort on behalf of his detractors the legal moves to oust Lasso aren’t going to get
far and that’s why the likelihood of new rounds of social protests are now rising.
The CONAIE indigenous movement has been vociferous in its opposition to Lasso since the start
of the year and has already called for his resignation due to Lasso’s U-Turn on the mining
moratorium negotiated in 2022. Last week its leader, Leonidas Iza, once again called on Lasso
to resign and the indigenous umbrella group and associated movements now have even more
reason to return to the streets and demand the removal or resignation of Lasso. In his main
speech last week (11), Iza announced a march on the capital Quito for March 28th and if true to
form, it would be a large but not massive march on the capital as we saw in the prelude period
to the main social protests of 2022. Again, if things go to form that march would be ignored
and then CONAIE really flexes its muscles with a bigger and more nationwide protest in the
middle of the year designed to pressure the executive and the Constitutional Court into action.
As CONAIE is currently in allegiance with the other main political group in the country, the left
wingers around ex-President Rafael Correa (Correa and CONAIE have a love/hate thing going
on for over a decades), we’re likely to see the pressure ratcheting up on Lasso as the year
progresses and his easiest exit strategy, the so-called “muerta cruzada” (crossfire death) option
is likely tyo become attractive to him. As a reminder of this, it gives the President to right to
dissolve Congress and rule by decree for six months, as long as the President then also resigns
by a fixed date and new national elections are held within 12 months.
The bottom line: Though not in immediate danger (as alluded to on many English language
channels last week) due to a friendly Constitutional Court, last week saw another notch of
pressure on the Lasso government and the likelihood of widespread social protests are now on
the rise. We’re not going to get the headline-making marches immediately, no matter what
happens or how big the March 28th protest called by CONAIE gets, instead consider anything
we see in the next couple a weeks an hors d’oeuvre for bigger things in May or June.
Argentina: The pre-primaries scenario in one chart
Argentines love talking politics almost as much as football and they love their opinion polls, too.
Put them together and you have a non-stop stream of voter intention surveys for the
Presidential election at the end of this year, even though the July Primaries (known as PASO)
are vital for the process at this point and much of the current pre-campaign is about trying to
capture internal party votes. This weekend, your author sifted through a good half dozen
surveys published in March and this, from Opina Argentina (1,250 people surveyed, margin of
error +/-2.9%) is probably the best to get a handle on the current field.
If you want more, this link (12) has the entire seven pages of the Opina Argentina survey but
for the rest of us, this shows voter intention for President grouped into party blocs, with the
Yellow group showing the right wing alliance totalling 32% and headed by current Mayor of
Buenos Aires city, Horacio Larreta (and as seen in January, my tentative pick for the eventual
winner). Then we have blue for the Left/current government at 28%, headed by
“Superminister” Sergio Massa but with current President Alberto Fernández on his heels. Then
20

comes the independent candidature of right wing/libertarian/populist Javier Milei at 22%. After
that the also-rans, 7% undecided, 2% spoiling ballot etc
Market Watching
Updating on Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v)
Here we go with the overdue report on my meeting with RIO.v chair Alex Black which
happened 10 days ago and I deferred last weekend in order to cogitate further, check a few
things and watch the Chilean political backdrop in order to see how the government re-shuffle
went. As well as catching up on personal stuff (we hadn’t met face-to-face for over a year), we
covered plenty of business matters and while the RIO.v share price of under 20c (again) hardly
reflects it, it’s clear they’ve been doing a lot of work in the background at RIO.v on a corporate
level. Our conversation fell mostly on two subjects, permitting/politics and money.
First we consider the most important aspect of Rio2 today and its major logjam for moving
forward, that of its appeal against the non-awarding of its EIA permit last year. This is the
subject that takes 90% of the corporate effort at the moment and the team, along with its
Chilean lawyers, now have a clear understanding of the issues and how to fix them in the eyes
of the Chilean law as stands. This is important because, as the NR noted (see below), what the
company worries about most is a “political decision” that refuses its permit on appeal for
whatever reason. Though the cabinet and government of President Gabriel Boric has made
clear moves toward the political centre, the ongoing fear among investors and observers of the
stock is that the government decides “no”, then goes about finding a reason why; much like
last year and those chinchillas, in fact. Regarding those pesky pals for a moment, as the long,
shareholder update type NR of March 9th made clear (13), the work at the Fenix site will be
restricted to low cost environmental studies for the time being and the main efforts are on
liaison and using formal, legal channels to make its case to the relevant government bodies
connected to its case.
We moved to the subject of appeal timing and the process as they now understand it for 2023.
The NR pointed out that Rio2 and Fenix do not yet have a formal date for their appeal and on
questioning CEO Black on this point, it’s clear that it’s going to happen at some point in 2023
(and the sooner the better, frankly) but there’s nothing on the formal agenda as yet. I then had
one of my preconceptions burst when told that according to the team of company lawyers the
pending appeals processes, which include that of Fenix, will not necessarily get done in
chronological order.
To expand on this point, this report in the business section of Chile’s newspaper of record, La
Tercera (14), listed the five projects in Chile currently pending appeal at the “Comite de
Ministros”, the “Committee of Ministers” which decides upon all permit appeals. It included
Fenix in the list and while its total investment size, slated at U$206m, is tiny compared to
pending projects also under appeal such as the Collahuasi expansion (U$3.2Bn) or the Los
Bronces expansion (U$3Bn), Fenix is also slated to employ 1,200 people of the total 16,000
expected from the pending projects. That those happen to be in a region in desperate need of
new sources of employment is another benefit. But to return to the issue, we know that the
appeal for the permit refusal at Los Bronces was filed before that of Fenix and up to our
meeting I assumed it would, therefore, be Los Bronces up next and Fenix later. That was my
mistake, Chile’s government could just as easily consider Fenix before any other.
Back to the NR as reference material and for my money, the most telling paragraph of the
March NR was this one:
It should be noted that the administrative appeal is not a judicial process, and the
decision of the Ministries Committee may be subjective and not consider the technical
and legal arguments of the EIA decision being appealed. Should Rio2 receive a
negative decision from the appeal, the Company will take the matter to a judicial level
and vigorously defend its legal rights to having the decision overturned.
Chair Black and I spent more time discussing the wording and implications of this than anything
21

else. In effect, the message here is that RIO.v now understands itself to be a political football,
but unlike 2022 when it tried to keep under the radar, it is now ready to use that position to its
advantage. The shift in ideological leaning in the Boric government has been clear and palpable,
but that doesn’t mean there are no hard lefties or environmental warriors left in positions of
power. Quite the contrary, as Maisa Rojas is still Minister of the Environment and as she leads
up the Comite de Ministros, her position is clearly influential. In order to combat the potential
that the committee decides to remain “subjective and not consider the technical and legal
arguments of the EIA decision being appealed”, RIO.v will not be shy about playing the political
field. That does not mean shouty and polemic comments that try to box opponents into a
corner, it’s more a case of promoting the benefits of the project at a local, regional, national
and political level while allowing the government the political space to move to its side.
All that’s rather cryptic and not much use in a report such as this, so by way of one concrete
example (of many), chair Black explained that one specific middle ranking government official
(with no background or training in conservation matters, I am told) continues to insist that as
part of its environmental monitoring program, the company should collar and track the wild
camelids in the zone (Vicuña, Guanaco). However, all through its permitting process RIO.v has
taken independent expert opinion on this matter and ALL real experts in the field agree that the
act of collaring large wild camelids would, quite literally, cause more harm than good and may
even kill those chosen due to the stress of being trapped, handled etc. Therefore RIO.v refuses
to comply with this government directive (and quite right too). The implication is that if the
appeal is denied on these grounds, it would then became standard practice in ALL of Chile to
collar wild animals which would, eventually cause international outcry among environmentalists
and conservation groups. The bottom line to this bizarre situation is that RIO.v the mining
company is upholding best practices and being denied the use of them by the people accusing
them of being an environmental danger.
As noted above, that’s just one example of the political quagmire RIO.v is wading through at
present, but it also explains why that last phrase of the above paragraph exists, “…the
Company will take the matter to a judicial level and vigorously defend its legal rights to having
the decision overturned.” Now of course, the last thing any of us want is a protracted legal
battle and the company taking the government to some-or-other international courtroom. RIO.v
is also crystal clear on that, but its lawyers are also in the position to point out to their legal
peers in public government roles that it would be better for all concerned to avoid these
scenarios.
Moving to money, the other main matter we considered during the both now and going
forward. The current situation is reasonably comfortable, with the cash raised by selling the
non-core assets to OGR and the decision to remunerate insiders via options and cash, rather
than the normal exploreco method of cash and cash and options and cash, made early in the
year. For sure it depends if the appeals process drags, but as stands the company expects to
have enough treasury to see it through the appeals process. As for the project financing
package, RIO.v has had contact with stream backer Wheaton and they remain supportive, but
late last year BNPP (Paribas) last year closed its mine financing desk and is no longer lined up
for the main sovereign debt portion of the capex (apparently they took a big hit from the failure
of Harte Gold and an executive decision was made to leave the sector for good). That sounds
sticky, but as BNPP was working in conjunction with other major banks on the book building
and RIO.v knows who they were, they’ve done the necessary meetings and have plenty of
interest from other financial houses on the eventual debt financing portion for Fenix, subject of
course to a positive results from the appeals process. As for the amount they’d need, I wasn’t
alone in assuming that capex would have increased due to the well-documented inputs inflation
suffered by the mining industry since RIO.v put its budget together and, after some prodding, I
got a ballpark number from Chair Black. Let’s be clear that this is approximate-only, but I was
told that after spending approximately U$30m on the long-lead items in 2022 that were
eventually delivered and either used (e.g. building the accommodation quarters) or put into
storage (long lead plant/machinery), Rio will need another U$130m to complete Fenix. That
number includes contingency and compares to the previous estimate of U$130m including
22

contingency in the original plan. In other words, the embedded purchases are the difference
and Rio2 estimates it will need U$130m from here today to finish the job. That might sound like
a big jump and suggest project economics, IRR etc may be affected but on the other hand,
RIO.v used a baseline U$1,250/oz gold price for its economic model and these days, even
U$1,600/oz would be conservative. In other words, plenty of meat on this bone and of the
hurdles left to surmount, project financing of the eventual permitted Fenix would be one of the
easier to handle.
The bottom line: As the March 6th NR suggested, RIO.v has indeed beeen busy behinds the
scenes and has been getting used to the idea of taking at least part of its appeals process into
the “court of public opinion.” I’m happy with the feedback I got about the legal team in Chile
and its strategy, these people know their field and will make sure the company position and
message gets across without ruffling any Presidential or
ministerial feathers. The task is to allow the government
the political space to change its mind without it looking
like a climbdown and on that score, RIO.v has plenty of
strong environmental and community cards on its side.
The way Chile’s President and executive have moved
away from the hard left and its ideology since the permit
refusal in July last year is definitely a positive for the
company, but nobody’s taking anything for granted and
with an environmental stalwart such as Enviro minister
Maisa Rojas leading the Comite de Ministros and the
appeals process, there’s a political dance to be danced.
Finally, RIO.v will certainly inform the market as soon ad
the formal process of appeals begins in front of the Comite, so there will be no need to rely on
back channels such as this letter for the newsflow once it begins.
Conclusion
IKN722 is done, we end with bullet points:
 Of course I could have mentioned the decent price action in Top Pick Minera Alamos
(MAI.v) on Friday that saw it move above 40c briefly and the high probability we’ll see
the same type of recovery buying into the stock in the week to come as the world
starts searching for obvious bargain in the PM sector. But I didn’t.
 I could have also made a big song and dance about the way our biggest copper
position, Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) traded well all week and resisted the weak
copper price well. With Aurora Davidson now dropping the strongest hints ever that the
company will pay bonus dividends in 2023 on top of its standard 3c/quarter and stock
buyback programs, I cannot see C$1.50 as much of a barrier even if copper returns to
U$3.80/lb briefly.
 Instead, today’s edition is all about trying to get the big picture right in a fast moving
macro backdrop, as well as outlining why I’m ready to extend the riskier end of my PM
portfolio by adding to ABRA.v and NCAU.v.
 And avoid Colombia.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stock is Minera Alamos (MAI.v). Flash
updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best wishes, Mark
23

Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/16/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
(2) https://abrasilver.com/news-releases/abrasilver-drills-best-silver-intercept-to-date-at-the-jac-zone-32481-gt-ag-over-
1-metre-within-broader-intercept-of-3025-gt-ag-over-14-metres-in-oxides-
(3) https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/rio-tinto-sees-robust-short-term-outlook-for-copper/
(4) https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/fitch-ratings-revises-global-metals-mining-price-
assumptions-14-03-2023
(5) https://orocoresourcecorp.com/news/oroco-closes-non-brokered-private-placement-20230317
(6) https://www.panglobalresources.com/_files/ugd/eec401_f1871e4402a34b93be1fdbfbe63aa00d.pdf
(7) https://www.e29copper.com/news/element-29-announces-results-from-elida-phase-2-drill-program-including-4045-
metres-of-060-cueq1
(8) https://www.wesdome.com/English/investors/latest-news/news-details/2023/Wesdome-Announces-Annual-Mineral-
Resource-and-Reserve-Updates-for-Eagle-River-and-Kiena-Mine-Complexes/default.aspx
(9) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tales_of_the_Riverbank
(10) https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/ecuador-opposition-makes-formal-request-hold-lasso-impeachment-
hearings-2023-03-17/
(11) https://www.telesurtv.net/news/ecuador-movimiento-indigena-juicio-presidente--20230318-0006.html
(12) https://www.baenegocios.com/politica/Elecciones-2023-una-encuesta-revela-como-avanza-la-carrera-hacia-la-
Presidencia-20230310-0050.html
(13) https://www.rio2.com/post/rio2-outlines-plans-for-completion-of-fenix-gold-mine-financing
(14) https://www.latercera.com/pulso/noticia/casi-us8-mil-millones-en-inversion-y-16-mil-empleos-las-cifras-detras-de-
los-proyectos-pendientes-en-el-comite-de-ministros/Z7VFK75IWRDQJN634MFUJH4SXQ/
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2022
Closed in 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
Goldshore Res GSHR.v Nov'22 C$0.18 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 88.9% Quick profit taken
Palamina Corp PA.v Dec'22 C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.08 -72.9% Clear-out of underperformer
Pure Gold PGM.h Dec'22 C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.015 -89.3% tiny trade on vh risk, went Ch11
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
24

Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Set-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
25

NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
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Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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