IKN #721Premium

The IKN Weekly
Week 721, March 12th 2023
Contents
This Week: In Today’s Edition, The return of the most unpopular gold rally ever, CPI on deck.
Fundamental Analysis: Newcore Gold (NCAU.v): Oversold.
Stocks to Follow: Western Copper & Gold (WRN.to) (WRN): SolGold (SOLG.to), Anacortes
Mining (XYZ.v), Minera IRL (MIRL.cse), Aldebaran (ALDE.v), Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v).
Copper Basket: Overview, Oroco Resources (OCO.v), Atacama Copper (ACOP.v), Regulus
Resources (REG.v), Libero Copper (LBC.v).
Producer Basket: Overview, Newmont (NEM) and Newcrest (NCM), Wheaton Precious Metals
(WPM).
TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Manitou Gold (MTU.v), District Metals (DMX.v).
Regional Politics: Peru: The “mining corridor” is open, Chile’s Parliament votes down the
Boric tax law bill, Chile’s Cabinet re-shuffle, Panama reaches agreement with First Quantum
(FM.to) on Panamá Cobre.
Market Watching: Equinox Gold (EQX) (EQX.to) continues to show its leverage.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
In Today’s Edition
 Today’s intro has to make reference to SVB, the crisis that has come out of seemingly
nowhere to dominate the financial narrative in the last four days. Depending on ho the
chips fall, we gold and metals people should be prepared for several scenarios and they
certainly include the potential for a sharp sell-off in gold (along with everything else
except the USD) if the US markets go into liquidity suck mode. However, the action last
week and reaction of the days to come is highly likely to be bullish for gold and once
the immediate storm passes, gold has that “ducks in line” look about it now. Very-near-
term pain is possible but not certain, but near/medium-term gain is now the call. So
own some gold and if it goes on sale this week, maybe buy some more.
 Today’s main fundies note considers the Resource Update (MRE) delivered by Newcore
Gold (NCAU.v) last week and the ensuing negative reaction of the market. I’ll be
honest, my immediate reaction was negative as well but after due consideration and
talking with the NCAU team about the release, I’ve come around. This stock is oversold
and a good gold bargain at these levels. The nuances on that below.
 Regional Politics this week reports from a slightly calmer Peru, but its main focus is
Chile where the Boric government is getting its wings clipped on one side by the
country’s Congress, while moving further away from the political hard Left via the latest
cabinet re-shuffle.
The return of the most unpopular gold rally ever
There are other media and methods to measure the effects of last week and its rollercoaster of
macro newsflow but, being a mining publication, we’re going to focus on gold. We begin with
this ten-day chart of the Comex gold continuous contract (GC00) which is effectively spot gold
and the fun and games began on Tuesday:
1

That’s when Fed chief Jerome Powell sat down as scheduled in front of the U.S. Senate
Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs for the first of two-days at the Semi-Annual
Monetary Policy Report to the Congress (see IKN720 intro) and made sure his comments were
taken by Mr. Market as a clear indication that a 50bps rate rise at the next FOMC (in ten days’
time) is now on the table. Somehow (and I’m still not quite sure how) the market immediately
priced in a two-thirds likelihood of 50bps and while this desk was not surprised at his hawkish
line (again, see the intro to IKN720 last weekend), the skittish nature of the current market
magnified moves in stocks, bonds and other iossues. Gold was no exception, of course, and the
thought of a return the sharp raising cycle for US interest rates saw the (zero coupon)
monetary metal sell off. However, it’s not the first time I’ve observed Mr. Powell while thinking
that he doesn’t really have a clue as to the power of his own words (“Sir, you are no Alan
Greenspan”) and when Day Two of his testimony came around, he used it to try and gently and
carefully walk back the most strident parts of his testimony and I lost count of the number of
times I heard the phrase “data driven” on future rate decisions, first from Powell and then from
every corner of the chatter-sphere. However it seemed to work, the market paused its wild
moves for around a day and looked as though we were going to sail into the weekend with the
world split 50/50 on whether we’d get a (gold-friendly) 25bps or (gold unfriendly) 50bps raise
on March 21st.
Then came SVB. The talk started Thursday morning, engulfed the airwaves by Thursday
afternoon and by Friday morning, one of The USA’s top 20 banks by balance sheet size and
home for much of the cash and funding for Silicon Valley had, for all intents and purposes,
ceased to exist. We are not going into a blow-by-blow of those events, if you want to more
there are literally millions of other places to read about the implosion of SVB and what it all
might mean. However, what matters most to us is the effect it had on the price of gold, as seen
in the chart above. Spot gold had started Thursday at U$1,820/oz, was just under U$1,840/oz
by Friday morning and then proceeded to add U$33/oz in the spaced of the US market day as
the Fear Trade took hold. However, this isn’t a flight away from the US banking system and into
the world’s best established non-dollar safe haven asset, though that may have been a factor.
Instead, this bank collapse from seemingly out of nowhere (though 20/20 hindsight shows that
SVB’s book was poorly run) has provided a clear shot across the Fed’s bows about the
undesired effects of raising interest rates sharply. As a result, by Friday midday the debate on
“25 or 50?” had swung firmly back into the 25bps camp and gold caught its bid as a result.
As stated above, if you want a full blow-by-blow on the events and fall-out of the first large US
bank collapse since 2008 and the ramifications (be they real or imagined) then please go to
your preferred source for expert financial commentary on The US banking system. However and
to make one final point about the potential knock-on effects of Friday’s shenanigans, we
investors should be prepared for a potential 2008-style liquidity suck on the market, one that
would reverse gold’s gains on Friday and send the USD higher still as big money flies to quality
and moves as one into US bonds. Not the same tsunami-sized same movements as we saw at
the nadir of the 2008/2009 GFC, I hasten to add (this is, after all, one regional bank with a
fairly specialist clientele) but there’s precedent for a one-way dollar trade that gets everything
2

else to sell off, gold bullion included, for a limited period. Students of the GFC will recall how
gold dropped sharply but then rebounded almost as quickly, adding the first 20% in what would
prove to be a record run between 2009 and 2011.
And that’s enough sidebar, this intro note’s task was to get us to this point, with a bare bones
resume of how we got to where we are this weekend in gold and to reiterate a point made no
end of times in the past three months. The clue is in the title line, this chart show the last 12
months in gold price movements, it’s not too difficult to follow its phases:
This time last year (seems much longer) we were watching Russian troops blocked on the road
to Kyiv, then geopoliticals took a backseat and the financial driver became the Fed’s decision to
raise interest rates at the fastest clip since Volcker. Then came the pivot point at the beginning
of November when the Fed hinted, then signalled, then confirmed it would slow its rate hike
rhythm and as a result, gold rebounded in good style. But when hot inflation numbers took a
front seat as from February this year, gold began selling down again as the market anticipated
that the Fed would need to raise interest rates “higher for longer” (to borrow one of the latest
buzzphrases). Indeed, the recent talk of the potential return to 50bps rises are a natural
extension of this narrative (jawbone) and this is why the systemic weakness that showed up in
The USA late last week had such an effect on gold. Instead of a scenario in which The Fed
turns the screw and slows the economy in order to drain out inflation, we now face one in
which the Fed will revert to its gradualist approach, go twenty-five steps at a time and take its
chances with the lesser evil of inflation.
In other words, as much as they’d like “higher for longer” the medicine may end up killing the
financial patient and that should allow gold to return to the highs we saw at the start of this
year. What’s more, we’re now in a world where gold miner margins are no longer seem as
being squeezed by cost increases, instead they can maintain (even improve) margins on each
ounce as gold floats up with the general inflation backdrop. To sum up to this point, be
prepared for near-term choppiness in gold, but the medium-term now looks conducive to both
metals and their miners. Which brings us to today’s title line, as our data has already showed
the improvement in gold prices during the three months of November 2022 to January 2023
was the most unpopular gold rally ever, at least on Wall St. The demand for gold bullion came
from world Central Banks, not from suited
and booted fund managers as seen in the GLD gold holdings, 2022 to date (metric tonnes)
1140
way GLD has acted since November. This 1120
chart shows how inventories for GLD, the 1100
1080
gold entry point of choice for capitalist 1060
1040
funds, have hardly changed over the last 1020
1000
four months (right). 980
960
940
Indeed, the November 4th 2022 and the 920
900
market tide changed for gold, GLD physical 880
860
inventories stood at 906.96 metric tonnes
3
12/21/13 22/1/41 22/1/82 22/2/11 22/2/52 22/3/11 22/3/52 22/4/8 22/4/22 22/5/6 22/5/02 22/6/3 22/6/71 22/7/1 22/7/51 22/7/92 22/8/21 22/8/62 22/9/9 22/9/32 22/01/7 22/01/12 22/11/4 22/11/81 22/21/2 22/21/61 22/21/03 32/1/31 32/1/72 32/2/01 32/2/42 32/3/01
mt
source: SPDR GLD data

and the unit price closed at U$156.45. This weekend, with GLD 11.1% higher at U$173.86, its
inventories are 3.8 metric tonnes lower at 903.15mt. This shows most clearly in our regularly-
aired Inventory/Price ratio chart:
6.60 GLD: Inventory/Price Ratio, 2022 to date
6.40
6.20
6.00
5.80
5.60
5.40
5.20
5.00
4.80
4
12/21/13 22/1/41 22/1/82 22/2/11 22/2/52 22/3/11 22/3/52 22/4/8 22/4/22 22/5/6 22/5/02 22/6/3 22/6/71 22/7/1 22/7/51 22/7/92 22/8/21 22/8/62 22/9/9 22/9/32 22/01/7 22/01/12 22/11/4 22/11/81 22/21/2 22/21/61 22/21/03 32/1/31 32/1/72 32/2/01 32/2/42 32/3/01
Source: SPDR data, IKN calcs
We’ve never seen this ratio as low and as we’ve
8.50 GLD: Inventory/Price Ratio, 2016 to date
traditionally noted 6X at the “sentiment washout”
8.00
level for gold and its appetite among financial
7.50
houses, seeing it drop to as low as 5.06X (Feb 1st)
7.00
is unprecedented and speaks of the way gold
6.50
ownership has been largely ignored by funds,
6.00
traders and North American investors. This long-
5.50
term chart of the same data set (right) takes us 5.00
back to 2016 and shows how sentiment toward 4.50
gold has tended to rebound once 6X were 4.00
reached, but not this time. Therefore, with the
ducks now moving into line for gold ownership…
 The Fed forced to limit rate rises
 The fight agains inflation no longer the only game in town
 Fear Trade revival (aka flight to safety away from USD)
…it looks as though the time to has arrived for PM stocks and all that without mentioning that
decade high in Chinese manufacturing sector activity, as seen just ten short days ago and now
seemingly off the radar of the news cycle. The reasons to own gold are not the same as the
reasons to own a speculative junior, even though the latter is closely tied to the price
movements of the former. We’ll have to see how the political chips fall as regards SVB and how
the markets react to the collapse of a important-ish bank, one that wouldn’t be such a big deal
if it weren’t for its central role in financing Silicon Valley, so it’s tough to make very-near-term
forecasts on the movements of bullion in the next 48 hours. But once the storm has passed we
should be in a macro scenario that points more people toward the benefits of owning the
monetary metal and there’s no doubt that Wall St has plenty of catching up to do on that score.
CPI on deck
Anyway, the Fed told us it will be data-dependent and next week brings what is now the most
important single reading in the US monthly macro cycle, having superseded the jobs report
some time in late 2022. On Tuesday the US BLS publishes its Consumer Price Index for
February and at time of press, consensus (1) is for +0.4% headline, +0.4% core and the Year-
Over-Year CPI number to come in at +6.0%.
Anything lower than that will give the Fed more
breathing space on lower base rates rises,
anything higher than 6.0% will see the debate
rage on. The chart (right) shows that 6.0%
consensus estimate against readings since 2021.
It probably goes without saying by now, but
near-term gold prices will benefit next week from
61/4/1 61/61/3 61/62/5 61/8/8 61/81/01 61/92/21 71/41/3 71/42/5 71/4/8 71/61/01 71/72/21 81/21/3 81/22/5 81/2/8 81/21/01 81/42/21 91/8/3 91/02/5 91/13/7 91/01/01 91/02/21 02/5/3 02/51/5 02/82/7 02/7/01 02/71/21 12/3/3 12/11/5 12/22/7 12/1/01 12/31/21 22/42/2 22/6/5 22/02/7 22/92/9 22/9/21 32/32/2
Source: SPDR data, IKN calcs
US Consumer Price Inflation (CPI)
4.1 7.1
6.2
2.4
0.5 4.5 4.5 3.5 4.5 2.6 8.6 0.7 5.7 9.7 5.8 3.8 6.8 1.9 5.8 3.8 2.8 7.7 1.7 5.6 4.6
0.6
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0 4.0 3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
12'naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 22'naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes 2'tco von ced 32'naj bef
source: U.S. BLS

a lower reading for US inflation. We also get PPI on Wednesday and as the issues driving
inflation are supply side bottlenecks, markets will also pay close attention to this dataset that
runs a consensus this weekend of +0.3% in headline and +0.4% for core PPI. We’ll then be in
the run-up to the FOMC meeting the week after next and for what it’s worth, I see no reason to
change the house forecast of +25bps once that is done and dusted and if so, that will be a
stronger positive for gold than any change due to next week’s CPI. Data is one thing, policy is
quite another.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Newcore Gold (NCAU.v): Oversold
The quality of mercy is not strain'd.
It droppeth as the gentle rain from heaven
Upon the place beneath. It is twice blest:
It blesseth him that gives and him that takes.
The Merchant of Venice, Act 4, Sc1
Preamble: On the morning of Tuesday March 7th and part of the flood of NRs during PDAC,
our trade on cheap exploration-stage gold in West Africa, Newcore Gold (NCAU.v), announced
its somewhat overdue “…Updated Mineral Resource Estimate for the Enchi Gold Project,
Ghana.” Here’s the ten-day chart for NCAU that will help us move the story along and show
market reaction:
Indeed, the news went down like a lead balloon with nice Mr. Market. For more contect, the
2023 YTD chart (below left) shows how NCAU had sold off gently into March while generally
remaining at (or reaching distance to) the 25c line, though to be as fair as possible to the stock,
when we compare (below right) the same squiggly line to the juniors ETF (GDXJ) it wasn’t
doing any better or worse than the sector median. Until last week, that is.
The 25% drop on Tuesday was followed by continued volume on Wednesday and culminated in
a 500k block trade going through at 17c on Thursday as one medium-sized holder threw in the
towel. It was all rather annoying and frankly, the thought also crossed my mind to send out a
5

Flsh update and call sell on the position Tuesday morning, the total ounce count having fallen
well short of expectations. We saw a modest recovery from that point and was helped along
when insiders filed purchases on Friday, 90k shares going into the tightest of hands and led by
company chair Doug Forster (2). Every little helps at these moments and though not the
biggest purchases of all time, it’s good to see insiders step up in this way.
While those trades were being filed, your author was on a Conference Call with company
President/CEO Luke Alexander and VP Exploration Greg Smith, arguably the two main drivers of
NCAU and its story. It was a useful ConfCall and once it was over, crystallized my already
improving thoughts about this stock and its trade potential. So with preamble and blow-by-blow
account of last week’s merciless trading done, it’s time to get
down to the real business and consider what happens when
quality takes over from quantity.
Last week’s NR: The place to begin is the updated Mineral
Resource Estimate (MRE) numbers, as provided by NCAU in
last week’s NR (3). We’ll have to wait for the 43-101 filing on
SEDAR for all the deal, but a word of appreciation at this point
as NCAU provided plenty of information in last week’s NR and
cut and sliced the data in several useful ways. First up a
reminder of Enchi, located in South Ghana, the concession
running right up to the country border with Ivory Coast (am I
allowed to write that in English these days) as seen on this
map. The map of Enchi also highlights one of NCAU main
attractions, it’s a big zone and has plenty of identified targets,
but to date the 43-101 compliant mineralization is located at
five zones
This is the first change to the number of zones now in the 43-
101 resource and Tokosea now enters the list with an open pit
inferred resource of 46,900oz (at an above-average grade of
0.75 g/t), clearly a start number for a pit shape that will
enlarge as drilling increases. So we now have five resource zones and between them, they have
moved the total resource to this total:
The all-categories total of 1,715,500oz Au compares to the 1,414,600oz Au in the now defunct
2021 MRE. Before we continue, we run a necessary aside to the market reaction to last week’s
NR because mine was largely the same. After being guided to (and even slightly over) 2m oz
6

gold for this MRE, the company did its image no favours at all by returning a headline count of
just over 1.7m oz and be clear, I was one of the people suitably annoyed by the results when I
first saw the NR (as CEO Alexander will attest on the day). As such, it came as no surprise to
see the stock price sink the way it did, albeit further than I thought it would (the market
backdrop didn’t help last week). However, once I’d cooled off and returned to consider the NR
and its contents in detail, the suspicion grew that NCAU had been somewhat unfairly treated by
the market (and my snap judgement) and by the time the ConfCall with the team had finished
on Friday, that thought had crystallized.
The first and most obvious change is the upgrade in category. These days 43% of the Enchi
resource is in the higher Indicated category (good to work into a PFS or FS) and 57% is
inferred, instead of 100% inferred back in 2021. We also have an adjustment in average
grades, as the 2021 MRE used a global average of 0.62 g/t gold (at a 0.2g/t cut-off), while the
new MRE has as seen above an average of 0.55 g/t for indicated and 0.65 G/t for inferred,
these using a sliding scale cut-off starting at 0.14 g/t cut off (for the easiest and cheapest
tonnes to process) and the baseline gold price of a sensible U$1,650/oz.
These are clearer and more defined parameters and fruit of the recent 72,000m of drilling done
at the project, of which NCAU was keen to point out that just 34km directly impacted the
resource count. Here’s how VP Expl Greg Smith put it in his NR comments:
“…with over 38,000 metres of drilling that has yet to be included in the resource, we
believe the drilling that has been completed on earlier stage targets continues to
highlight the future resource growth potential from both near surface oxide as well as
deeper sulphide mineralisation. With the success we have had to date via the drill bit
we expect it will only be a matter of time before we unlock the multi-million-ounce gold
potential at Enchi, a district scale exploration opportunity that is located on a prolific
belt that hosts a number of large-scale gold mines."
In other words, the number we saw last week is a staging post along the way and, while it
didn’t get to the market-pleasing number of 2m oz gold there’s not even any need to open up
on any one of the dozens of other targets at Enchi to get there and beyond.
Messrs Alexander, Smith and your author spent a fair proportion of Fridays’ ConfCall time on
this and related subjects. The company was keen to point to the amount of work that’s gone in
to the new MRE and, when asked whether the delay in delivery was connected to this, the
answer was a clear “yes”. The team was frank when saying it had under-estimated the amount
of time it would need to compile and reconcile the new data to the old and explained in some
detail how the historical database, with results often going back a decade or longer, needed to
be necessarily tweaked and adjusted as new and more accurate data was added. VP
Exploration Smith made particular emphasis on the issues the topographical survey had caused
as when new data arrived and the team, working in a back-and-forth converdation with the 3rd
party compilers, found that small but changes to the topography of the resource as recorded in
the latest drill results meant that old data needed to be re-worked and adjusted accordingly.
This turned into painstaking work that didn’t necessarily change the overall tonnage or ounce
count by much, but in doing so improved the data quality and gives a much better
understanding of where everything is at Enchi and how it works (or will work once under mine
operation). The good news is that the work done at this stage won’t need to be repeated and
the heavy lifting is done. It makes the new Indicated ounces of better quality (to a potential
funding source or buyer, for example) and while slowing the process down, NCAU was adamant
that the time has been well-spent at this stage.
So far so much about quality of ounces, but we also need to grasp where those ounces last and
to its credit NCAU cut and sliced the data in several useful ways last week. Here’s a second
table from the NR:
7

I have nothing against those underground ounces. They are good to see in this MRE, a useful
and interesting “proof of concept” and they show the potential for a long-life mine. We’ve
previous noted its similarity to the Chirano mine, North and on the same geological trend as
Enchi (and let us recall, Kinross got 15 years of very profitable gold mining from Chirano before
selling it recently for U$225m ticket). However 1) UG ounces are not coming out the ground
first and 2) they are sulphide hosted ounces, so even though they’re higher average grade we
know much less about them, e.g. there’s little test work done on them so far we should assume
they don’t leach as well as the oxide/transition tonnages.
Indeed, at this stage we care more about the ounces that are set to become an eventual starter
to operations at Enchi, either under the auspices of NCAU or the eventual acquirer. Therefore,
let’s move to another resource table provided last week:
Now we see that those 135,900 oz of “fresh” (i.e. sulphide) underground gold are not the only
ones held in sulphide material. Overall, NCAU counts 196,500oz of its new Indicated category
and (510,000 – 135,900) 374,100 oz of its inferred as “fresh” but in open pit zones. Once
again, we have no beef about NCAU reporting those ounces but the company is first to admit
its met and testing is still in early stages. On the other hand, we know that via plenty of test
work, particularly column leach testing in 2021 and 2022, that both oxide and transition
material leaches well and returns up to 93.2% recoveries using standard technologies. That’s a
good place to start a mine and what’s more, NCAU now knows it has 547,000oz of indicated
gold ounces hosted in oxide and transition zones that are amenable to open pit mining, along
with another 461,900oz in the inferred category. The grades of the four line items above range
from 0.44 g/t Au to 0.52 g/t Au and if we stick a finger in the air, we can assume an open pit
mine that runs 0.5g material and gets 90% recoveries without stretching the imagination too
far. Not only that, but we can make a fair guesstimate of the costs involved in mining that
material as NCAU now uses a 0.14 g/t cut-off for “the easy rock” and U$1,650/oz base for gold.
Do the math…
(U$1,650 / 31.1035) X 0.14 X 90% = U$6.70
…and it’s an op-ex of U$6.70/tonne. That sounds low, but mine-site only and in Ghana for
what’s little more than scoop-truck-dump is reasonable and also jives with the number Chirano
used to run in its early life, before UG mining took over there.
All this points us toward a likely direction for the development of NCAU the company, assuming
it is looking to move toward early-stage production at Enchi. The total 43-101 compliant
resource of over 1.7m oz gold is well and good, but the company would target the low-hanging
fruit in order to build their first operation. Indeed, on Friday’s call CEO Alexander talked up the
potential of a “limited drill program” that would be able to move enough inferred ounces to
bring the total indicated to 1m oz. That’s a size that can support a starter mine, particularly in a
target-rich zone where drilling is likely to improve the overall ounce count quickly, either by
going deeper and working the higher grade underground sulphide ounces or opening up new
areas for oxide-based open pits. NCAU already knows it has 547,000oz of indicated and
another 461,900oz inferred hosted in the best case “open pit, oxide/transition” combo, hosted
in 64m tonnes of rock. That would be enough for this:
8

NCAU.v: Enchi model year operating parameters (at 15k tpd throughput)
Price deck U$1.65k/oz Au U$1.8k/oz Au U$1.9k/oz Au U$2.0k/oz Au
Avg grade (g/t Au) 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50
Au prod oz (90% rec) 75,965 75,965 75,965 75,965
gross Au rev (U$m) 125.3 136.7 144.3 151.9
TC/RC (U$m) 25.1 27.3 28.9 30.4
Sales revenue (U$m) 100.3 109.4 115.5 121.5
Build this mine…
 15,000tpd
 0.5 g/t gold
 90% recovery
 350 days per year operations
…and you produce nearly 76,000 oz per year. Which is coincidentally, the same type of
production Kinross got from Chirano in its early years of pure open pit operations. Those are
profitable ounces, too:
NCAU at Enchi: Income statement model year (U$m)
U$1.65k/oz U$1.8k/oz U$1.9k/oz U$2.0k/oz
at 220mS/O Au Au Au Au
Sales (U$m) 100.3 109.4 115.5 121.5
COGS 68.3 68.3 68.3 68.3
Depreciation 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0
SGA+R&D 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0
5%+2%NSR 7.0 7.7 8.1 8.5
Op income 12.0 21.1 27.2 33.3
Debt serv. 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0
Tax 1.5 3.8 5.3 6.8
Net income 4.5 11.4 15.9 20.5
Shares out 170 170 170 170
EPS 0.03 0.07 0.09 0.12
Sust. Capex 6 6 6 6
FCF 0.13 0.17 0.20 0.23
Sources: NCAU data, IKN calcs & estimates
This model takes our U$6.70/t mine cut off and doubles costs to U$13/t all-in. It takes into
account the 5% Ghanaian State royalty and the 2% NSR on the project. We assume reasonable
inputs for other line items (feel free to argue by mail, I think I’m being conservative) as well as
debt servicing on capex capital and 170m shares out (see below). At the base case gold price
NCAU at Enchi earns U$12m/year and at the current reasonable case of U$1,800/oz, it makes
over U$21m. That’s good money and while it’s likely folly to generate a price target from
forward P/E at this stage, put a gun to my head and I’d do this:
Sales and earnings Valuation data for NCAU.v at Enchi based on
gold price
(U$/oz) 1.6kAu 1.8kAu 1.9kAu 2.0kAu average annual production and U$1,800/oz gold
Sales (U$m) 100 109 115 122 12-month target $0.43 based on 2x fcf
Upside to target 121%
EPS 0.03 0.07 0.09 0.12 Mkt cap (CAD$m) $33 Enterprise value $29
FCF 0.13 0.17 0.20 0.23 P/sales (1.6k Au) 0.30 EV/sales (1.6k Au) 0.27
P/E (1.6k Au) 7.3 EV/EBITDA (1.6k Au) 1.2
P/E (1.8k Au) 2.9 EV/EBITDA (1.8k Au) 0.9
P/E (1.9k Au) 2.1 EV/EBITDA (1.9k Au) 0.7
9

At 0.75X forex CAD/USD and the smallest multiple to free cash flow possible without feeling
silly, 2X, it generates a C$0.43 price target at U$1,800/oz gold. That’s for a small, low capex,
open pit starter operation at Enchi that would then be able to fund expansion into a larger open
pit heapleacher, sulphide mine operations (mill etc) and eventually fund underground
development and operation of the higher grade material.
In other words exactly what Kinross did next door, ten to 15 years ago.
That’s all rather theoretical at this time, however, as the company has only just delivered a MRE
that didn’t wow the world with its ounce count. It’s way too early to jump from that to a mine
project so before coming to any conclusions, it’s time to consider the current state of company
financials.
Financials check-up: We’re still waiting on the company YE filings and to underscore that,
we’ll just go with the official numbers on the overview asset chart…
…because the overall evolution is less importance at the moment. What matters is the near-
total lack of liabilities as seen above right, then the cash position compared to shares out. As
NCAU is the other side of its main drilling programs for the time being and into lower cash burn
phase, those charts matter more and get the forward estimates:
NCAU.v: Cash treasury per qtr
10
425.0 591.0
899.2 380.2
212.31
775.8
867.3
888.8
525.5
742.3
128.1
220.5
3
1
5
3 5.1
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 tse22q4 tse32q1 tse32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
NCAU.v: Assets
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
We could also run the working cap chart in the same way, but as current liabilities are tiny and
the company runs its books in the simplest way possible (a good thing), consideration of the
treasury position gives us more than enough to work on. Cash was at C$5.022m as at end 3q22
and that by then drilling was done, so burn would have dropped but it’s clear NCAU is now
down to or toward that classic exploreco treasury position, “running on fumes.” It’s not all bad,
as unlike many other explorecos NCAU is backed by a suite of serious instos and won’t lack for
funding sources. The question is at what price and this is certainly one of the reasons behind
last week’s selling spree. As well as a “liquidity event on news”, the market recognized the
other chink in NCAU’s armour; it would have to go back to market soon. The subject came up in
my Friday ConfCall with the company and after a couple of attempts to fish for insight, it was
clear CEO Alexander had decided to keep cards close to chest on this subject and was evasive
about giving anything away to a nosy retailer like me. That’s fair of course, however there aere
plenty of other clues dropped by the duo as both he and VP Ex Smith made several references
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3
$m NCAU.v: Liabilities per qtr
5
fixed
4.5
other current
4 cash+ST
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
source: company filings
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
LT liabs
current liabs

to a near future of low-cost operations at NCAU. They talked up the drill metres not yet part of
the current resource, the potential for that small and limited drilling campaign referenced above
to get the Indicated ounce count to the 1m line. Then there was potential to miss out the PFS
stage and move directly to an FS (something I hope they don’t do) and when it came to
spending on 2023 work programs to generate catalysts, NCAU is clearly not going to be as
noisy as previous years. A lot was made of cost-effective met work, essential environmental
baseline work that would expedite later permitting stages, on-ground and cost-effective ESG,
etc. he type of “serious mining company work” that goes on when a company isn’t just trying to
please the ephemeral desires of fickle retail, instead they are up for doing things the right way.
However and by the same token, it became clear after a while that NCAU isn’t going to be
spending the big bucks in the quarters to come and when I reruned to my call notes later on, it
showed as one of those conversations with several subjects all pointing in the same direction.
NCAU has put in legwork and cash to get a substantial indicated resource at Enchi. The
prospectivity of its overall concession area is understood, now it seems to be aiming toward a
low cost period in which it can consolidate the value of its assets as seen today. The people at
the centre of this story are not stupid about metals, markets or the way too many companies in
the junior sector blow their own brains out by keeping the accelerator to the floor, burning
treasury cash at a set rate and diluting all gains away from equity. Insiders are aligned with
shareholders as large insider holders (and they have to keep the large backers onside), they
have seen the tough moment juniors are currently undergoing and have adjusted plans
accordingly. However, with treasury close to zero they’ll need to raise cash in some way, shape
or form and though CEO Alexander told me that “all options are on the table” as to how to raise
capital, it would be surprising at this stage to see NCAU go exotic and sell a stream/royalty/off-
take or anything other than a standard and moderate equity raise.
This chart shows our best guess on the future, one in which the current share count of
138.26m S/O moves to 170m as NCAU raises around C$5m in a box standard placement (for
reference purposes, sell shares at 18c for gross proceeds of C$5.7m to get to 170m)
200 NCAU.v: Shares Out
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
11
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 tse22q4 tse32q1 tse32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
source: company filings
serahs
fo
snoillim
If NCAU closes that placement next quarter (three weeks away) that the house estimate cash
position at C$5m as at end 2q23. That would be enough to run the company and a modest drill
program, with a view to getting Enchi indicated to 1m oz by the end of this year.
This looks like a sensible plan to my eyes. Working Ghana has clear advantages, one of which is
low on-ground costs. Another is the opportunity to permit a mine in a far shorter space of time
than in virtually any country of The Americas, with CEO Alexander on Friday confirming the
assumption that a permitting cycle for Enchi that included the major permits could be started
and completed in one calendar year, as long as the baseline work were in place beforehand.
After all, what could possibly go wrong?
Discussion and conclusion
I was annoyed when opening the NR from Newcore Gold (NCAU.v) on Tuesday. Annoyed
because the MRE had taken almost three months longer than original guidance, annoyed that

the 2m oz + whisper number had missed by 300k oz or so, annoyed that it came on a down
day for gold. Basically annoyed and to the point where I thought seriously about throwing the
towel in on this trade.
I now believe that would have been a mistake. The draft of this note included a section that cut
and diced the in-situ valuation of the Enchi ounces in several ways to show the value now on
offer. That section didn’t make the final cut, but let’s just note that a week ago, NCAU had its
1.4155m inferred ounces priced around U$24.50/oz. Now, with an extra 300k ounces added
and 43% of those moved up to indicated (and ready to run bankable studies), they are priced
at under U$20/oz, That alone is silly and it even takes into account the expected placement to
raise some working capital.
But number crunching alone doesn’t do justice to a company such as NCAU or its potential. In
the same way ounces are never the same, neither are junior explorecos and this is a serious
company, with serious backers and a professional team doing the right things to make Enchi
into a mine, not just a resource number to flash at the market. Yes, 1.7m oz wasn’t what I
expected or desired but, after due consideration and hearing out the team, I’m happy with
what they are doing and the way they are doing it. NCAU isn’t stuck in the mud here, either, as
it has a clear path not just to the next stages of 43.101 compliance or development, but also to
turn this into a real live mine. It wouldn’t be expensive to start by running a 15k tpd open pit
heap/dump leach operation that produced 76k oz of highly profitable gold per year and if we
dare to include the inferred tonnage in that plan, NCAU could run that alone for 12 years
without worrying about sulphide material, either open pit or underground. It’s not pie-in-the-sky
or a plan that would take multiple years to come to fruition, either; though we anticipate a
relatively quiet 2023 from NCAU, it’s going to get on with the job of baseline studies and met
work, essential items that help the speedy Ghana permitting track on its way, come the time.
As for the trade potential here, there are three main factors.
1) NCAU is currently oversold. However and to paraphrase JM Keynes, we know from
experience that an exploreco can stay oversold longer than we can remain solvent.
2) It’s going to raise capital soon and when it does, that placement will drag on any
potential or actual price rebound action.
3) But the biggest influence is the gold price. If gold goes up, NCAU will be able to break
through its headwinds and move back to more reasonable equity valuations,
considering its status and progress along the development track.
I am tempted to buy at these current levels and add to my position, knowing full well NCAU
may remain stagnant for a few more weeks or even months before the market recognizes the
deep value on gold ounces that have improved in quality and are a cut above the average
junior exploreco’s 43-101 inferred resource. The reason to wait awhile is the upcoming round of
financing, but even that might happen at a higher price than this weekend’s 19.5c if gold
decides to run and return to the levels many expect (your author included) as 2023 rolls out. So
after due consideration I’m not an immediate buyer, but if the selling continues and NCAU
becomes available at dirt cheap prices, there will come a moment when I won’t be abe to resist,
be that pre or post financing. Therefore and for the time being, this is a strong hold and I’ll duly
kick myself if it floats back to 25c immediately.
Stocks to Follow
The Curse of PDAC strikes again. Mining stocks of all types suffered early week as PDAC run its
course (uncanny how many times that happens) as metals prices dropped, then the rally in gold
prices came too late in the week to shake mining companies away from the headwinds faced by
the continued broad market equities sell-off. The result is a Stocks to Follow list with precisely
zero week-over-week winners from the companies left on the list, the only saving graces from
four small-scale positions that remained unchanged (ORX.v, ALDE.v, MIRL.cse, MENE.v). All the
12

others were losers so there’s no long list, instead we break out the roll call of shame and point
to the two double-figure percentage losers, namely Newcore Gold (NCAU.v down 17.0%) and
SolGold (SOLG.to down 12.9%).
With the removal of Anacortes (XYZ.v) from the Watch List and the sale of Western Copper &
Gold (WRN.to) last week, we’re down to 14 covered stocks (12 owned personally), six fewer
than our self-imposed maximum and that leaves plenty of room for additions if the junior
mining market makes good on the promise offered by gold this weekend. Six are in the green.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.36 71.4% $0.75 first tgt, #1 idea
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Amerigo Res ARG.to STR BUY C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.50 10.3% Main Cu trade, top fundies
SolGold SOLG.to STR BUY C$0.265 19-Feb-23 C$0.27 1.9% New Cu trade Feb'23, M&A tgt
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v SPEC BUY C$0.275 25-Apr-21 C$0.15 -45.5% MRE now due 2q23, annoying
AbraSilver Res. ABRA.v STR BUY C$0.37 4-Dec-22 C$0.28 -24.3% Added end Jan, v cheap
Newcore Gold NCAU.v BUY C$0.21 23-Oct-22 C$0.195 7.1% Cheap now, MRE any moment
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v SPEC BUY C$0.83 22-Apr-18 C$0.17 -79.5% Cheap on permit probs, appeal
SPECULATIVE TRADES
Orefinders ORX.v.v SPEC BUY C$0.04 23-Oct-22 C$0.04 0.0% build position at 4c
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v SPEC BUY C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$2.00 -34.9% Au leverage, small trade so far
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v BUY C$0.72 16-May-21 C$0.92 27.8% drill assays from March'23
Minera IRL MIRL.cse avoid C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.04 -79.5% run into ground byCEO, AVOID
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
ATAC Res ATC.v WATCH C$0.095 11-Sep-22 C$0.13 36.8% Cheap Yukon neighbour play
Contango Ore CTGO WATCH U$23.25 2-Dec-22 U$22.90 -1.5% watching for financinf package
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.63 6-Dec-20 C$0.36 -42.9% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2023 date closed close price
Altiplano Metals APN.v jan'23 C$0.31 17-Sep-21 C$0.17 -45.2% delayed and will dilute soon
Western Copper WRN.to mar'23 C$2.02 13-Nov-22 C$2.32 14.9% sold on reduced M&A prob.
2015 to 2022 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on some of the covered companies:
Western Copper & Gold (WRN.to) (WRN): POSITION CLOSED. I could have done better
than my sale price of C$2.32 last week, but missed out on 5c or so due to bad timing. Oh well.
SolGold (SOLG.to): ADDED AS PLANNED. On the
other hand, I was pleased to get into more SOLG at an
average of 28c (and tenths), having been mentally
prepared for 30c and above. This position is now full
to my own satisfaction, let’s see if prices get low
enough to tempt me into it becoming out-sized.
Anacortes Mining (XYZ.v): A reminder that this
stock is no longer featured on the Watch List, so it
was rather ironic to see action in the ticker last week when XYZ announced its friendly with
Mongolian gold company, Steppe Gold (STGO.to) (4):
Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia–(Newsfile Corp. – March 6, 2023) – Steppe Gold Ltd. (TSX:
STGO) (OTCQX: STPGF) (FSE: 2J9) (“Steppe Gold“) and Anacortes Mining Corp.
(TSXV: XYZ) (OTCQX: XYZFF) (“Anacortes“) are pleased to announce that they have
13

entered into a binding letter of intent (the “Binding Agreement“) pursuant to which
Steppe Gold, either directly or through a wholly-owned subsidiary, will acquire all of the
issued and outstanding common shares (the “Anacortes Common Shares“) of
Anacortes…”
The deal is all-paper and XYZ holders get 0.4532 Steppe Gold shares for every XYZ share, givng
the deal a ticket price of C$0.48. However…
…the market is pricing XYZ a long way from that number, despite STGO not budging much from
its recent trading range. Frankly this is a bizarre deal and I only have two ways of explaining
why a small Mongolian miner would want to buy a Peru based exploreco:
 XYZ has given up and is happy to take the first deal tabled. The ticket price may be
above its recent range, but very few shareholders will walk away with a win and it’s
difficult to see why anyone into a Peru stock would suddenly want to fall in love with
Mongolia. If so, this management has done a disservive to its shareholder base.
 STGO is being used as a stalking horse to attract a competing bid from the company
that was supposed to buy them, its next door neighbour Boroo. If so, I don’t think it’s
going to work and the Chinese owners of Lagunas Norte are as likely to let STGO
consummate the deal and then wait until they’ve devalued before snaffling them up,
instead of XYZ, at a price dictated to them by others.
It might be bad timing to have dumped XYZ off the watch list just 24 hours before this deal
were announced, but the lack of spark in the share price shows I was probably right to do so.
Minera IRL (MIRL.cse): MIRL filed its February 2023 production numbers to the CSE last
week and shipments of gold in the month were the lowest in recent memory, at 934oz. That’s
only the second time Corihuarmi shipments have been under 1,000/oz in any given month since
2017 and may well be connected with the social protests in Peru. Contained pad ounces at
1,780oz are low, but they tend to improve in March of every year and if history is our guide,
should be at least 2,800oz in the March data. If not, the problems are more serious than one
poor month.
MIRL: 2020/22 Corihuarmi gold shipments, per month
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
14
12naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 22naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 32naj bef
Oz Au
source: MIRL filings

Aldebaran (ALDE.v): Mark Wayne (the quiet one of the trio) added some shares to his
position via insider purchases last week, but nothing for Kevin Heather. We await those.
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v): I’m going to wait a week and dig more before reporting on RIO.v, it’s NR of
last week and the conversation I had with company Chair Alex Black on Friday. There’s clearly
no rush to make any new decision on the stock, after all.
The Copper Basket
After ten weeks of 2023, The Copper Basket shows a loss of 1.32% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Solaris Res SLS.to 6.44 114.56 587.69 5.13 -20.3%
2 Western Copper WRN.to 2.41 151.597 350.19 2.31 -4.1%
3 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.22 88.028 314.26 3.57 10.9%
4 Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to 1.92 105.96 201.32 1.90 -1.0%
5 Oroco Res OCO.v 0.91 207.034 153.21 0.74 -18.7%
6 Faraday Copper FDY.to 0.54 166.137 134.57 0.81 50.0%
7 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.78 139.007 127.89 0.92 17.9%
8 Hot Chili HCH.v 0.78 119.455 101.54 0.85 9.0%
9 Regulus Res. REG.v 1.10 124.509 99.61 0.80 -27.3%
10 Pan Global Res PGZ.v 0.46 212.145 81.68 0.385 -16.3%
11 Kodiak Copper KDK.v 1.12 55.6 50.04 0.90 -19.6%
12 QC Copper QCCU.v 0.165 150.736 22.61 0.15 -9.1%
13 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.16 86.966 14.35 0.165 3.1%
14 Libero Copper LBC.v 0.155 93.869 12.67 0.135 -12.9%
15 Atacama Copper ACOP.v 0.16 34.373 6.53 0.19 18.8%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg -1.32%
Up one week, down the next. The Copper Basket rollercoaster had a negative week and as
such, we’ll do a little extra charting to consider the current action and the way the market
seems to be particularly concerned about the
U$4.00/lb line for copper. But first the role calla 10% The Copper Basket 2023, weekly evolution
9%
dn we had just two winners on the week (PGZ.v, 8%
7%
KDK.v) and one other remained unchanged 6%
(ALDE.v), which means 12 losers and three of 5%
4%
those were double figure percentage losses, 3%
2%
namely Faraday (FDY.to down 15.6%), Solaris 1%
0%
(SLS.to down 14.5%) and Oroco (OCO.v down -1%
10.8%). There were plenty other losers in the -2%
5% to 7% range and the aggregate of the losses
mean our basket average is back in the negative
this weekend, the lowest point of the year (…am
I allowed to say “so far”?).
What’s notable here is that market sentiment seems
to be playing a greater role than normal and the
world is watching copper as it bounces around the
U$4.00/lb price point. To illustrate, we have two
copper price charts for you this weekend starting
with a ten-day comparative of the main copper
producers’ ETF (COPX) next to the PM producer ETF
(GDX) and the spot copper (HG00, the blue line):
15
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21
source: IKN calcs

As reported in IKN720 last weekend, copper stocks of all types had a great week thanks to data
out of China, in particular that barnstormer PMI reading which measured manufacturing
expansion at its highest level for a decade. It’s remarkable how quickly said sentiment changed,
the news cycle moved on quickly and despite all the evidence, there was virtually no comment
on the Chinese data to be found on the airwaves last week. In fact, copper market commentary
zeroed in on a lower than expected inflation reading in China and from it, extrapolated that
“We’re not seeing that real demand take off in China” (5) despite the glaring data of just days
before. We re-state: What happens when China’s PMI comes in gangbusters next month as
well?
So, sentiment and appetite for risky junior miners changed and at the same time, PDAC cocktail
bars bemoaned the lack of headline deal flow from the conference, along with Tuesday’s
implied and hinted negatives on US macro from the mouth of Jay Powell. Once the dust had
settled, I felt somewhat relieved to see
copper remain neutral over the ten days of
that chart and close the week above The
Four Line, the metal showing plenty of real
world resilience against its imagined
bugbears.
Our second chart underscores that though
and shows where U$4.00/lb sits over the
long-term. We reiterate the point made last
weekend, that the voices, influence and
opinions on industrial metals in general and
copper in particular pale into insignificance
compared to those of the country that uses
over 50% of all the copper mined and re-
cycled in the world, every year. The bears wanted more form the Chinese Communist party
conference and opinions such as this one apparently held weight (6): “We saw out of that
continued policy support for the property sector, but overall it disappointed some expectations
of greater support from the government with the absence of a major stimulus package.” That
came from one Edward Gardner, a stuffed suit out of Capital Economics and no matter that the
very same wire reported a pick-up in demand for copper, with smelting activity up and stocks
dropping in the country. On that cue, we add some hard numbers via regular weekly update on
world copper inventories:
The trend is now set, we’ve seen the high of the year, the drop in world stocks is coming on the
calendar and the reason is China. The aggregate total of the three main world systems this
weekend is 300,510 metric tonnes (mt), which is a drop of 25,501mt on the week and the first
big down move of 2023. Chinese New Year is a thing of the past.
 The difference is the SHFE, where copper stocks dropped by a cool 26,008mt to close
Friday at 214,972mt. Same as last week, the dedicated charts below will pick up on this
subject.
 At the LME we saw another small copper inventory addition on the week, this time
1,175mt to bring Friday’s total to 71,725mt. That continues to be critically low and now,
some 27,825mt of the total is covered by cancelled warrants. We do seem to have a
little arbitrage going on with SHFE stocks, as we saw exactly 4,300mt land in the LME
South Korea warehouse and exactly 4,300mt in the LME Taiwan warehouse as well.
Those gains were offset by draw downs in Europe, with 6,375mt leaving stores in
Holland and Germany.
 The Comex saw a small net outflow of 668mt on the week, less than the 2k+ numbers
typical in 2023 but an addition to its trend, all the same. Total copper tonnages in its
warehouses is down to 13,813mt this weekend, another new post 2014 record.
The first of our two dedicated SHFE tracking charts is the most eloquent on the way stocks are
16

now confirmed as rolling over. We also see that it’s happening earlier than any year bar the
exceptional circumstances of 2022, so now the peak is in at 250k (and change), we now wait to
see the speed at which it drops back toward the 100k line. If stocks are still above that level
mid-year then the pressure on supply may not be as great as I believe it to be. However, all
data and plenty of anecdotal evidence points to China’s continued insatiable appetite for copper
and, no matter what trading desks might want you to believe.
SHFE copper inventory levels, 2018 to 2023
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
17
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
MT Cu 2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
source: Cochilco data
Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2014 to date
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
31'13ceD dr32 ht51 ht7 ht03 dn22 ht71 ht9 ts1von ht42 ht71 ht01 dn2tcO 7102ts1naJ ht62 ht81 ht01 dr3ced ht52 102ht72rpa ht91 ht11 9102
dr3bef
102ht82rpa ts12 ht31 0202ht5naj 202ht92ram ts12 ht31 0202ht6ced ht82 dr32 ht51 ht7 202ht03naj ht42 ht71 ht9 3202
naJ
Mt Cu
|
source: Cochilco
Now for some notes on a couple of basket component stocks:
Oroco Resources (OCO.v): The half million shares traded on Friday is the biggest single day
volume seen in OCO since the stock finished its waterfall
sell-off in July. Whoever it was ruined a perfectly
reasonable week for the company, at least they waited
until the PDAC parties were over and done with.
I get asked about OCO fairly regularly and my answer
doesn’t change much. It’s still a long way from the
moment when it can be seriously shopped around and
that’s an issue, as the promo pump behind the stock
stoked its retail shareholders into thinking it could be sold
at any given moment. It’s probably a reasonable purchase
at 80c or below, then again it’s probably a sell at $1.00 or
$1.10. I’ll stick with the copper positions I own.
Atacama Copper (ACOP.v): And the first NR from the company since Tim Warman joined the
company in August 2022 is…
Vancouver, British Columbia--(Newsfile Corp. - March 10, 2023) - Atacama Copper
Corporation (TSXV: ACOP) ("Atacama Copper" or the "Company") announces that it
has granted 380,000 stock options (the "Options") and 130,000 restricted share units
(the "RSUs") to eligible participants of the Company, pursuant to its Long Term

Incentive Plan.
The Options have an exercise price of $0.185 per common share (the 30-day volume
weighted average price) and expire 5 years after the date of grant pursuant to the
terms of the Company's Long Term Incentive Plan. The stock options and RSUs shall
vest in three equal parts on the grant date, first anniversary and second anniversary of
the grant date.
…the awarding of incentive options. In other words, ACOP remains with near total radio silence
under its new team but despite that, it’s the #2 best performing stock on our list. As we noted
three weeks ago in IKN718, Maybe the best thing to do in this
market is nothing.
Regulus Resources (REG.v): Ignoring company
fundamentals completely and considering the chart alone, if
REG makes it back down to 70c its track record states that it’s
a trading buy. It may be at this current 80c in fact, but there’s
no reason to rush in. One that speculators may want to take
advantage of if the set-up shows.
Libero Copper (LBC.v): The way LBC traded before and
during PDAC suggests that the reality about the chances of a drill program happening at Mocoa
is beginning to sink into the wider audience. LBC was lower at the start of the year as some-or-
other holder exited, aside that Friday’s close was a new low
and on thinning volume.
According to friends at PDAC, the LBC team tended to deflect
on conversations about Mocoa and instead, were keen on
talking about the company’s upcoming exploration program at
its Esperanza project in Argentina. In other words, be ready for
a company that has pulled the wool over your eyes in Colombia
expect to be taken seriously in Argentina.
The Producer Basket
After 10 weeks of 2023, the Producer Basket shows a loss of 6.33% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 47.20 799 33.69 42.16 -10.7%
2 Barrick GOLD 17.18 1761.54 28.03 15.91 -7.4%
3 Agnico Eagle AEM 51.99 488.9 22.21 45.42 -12.6%
4 Wheaton PM WPM 39.08 451.963 18.29 40.47 3.6%
5 Kinross Gold KGC 4.09 1256.1 4.40 3.50 -14.4%
6 Alamos Gold AGI 10.11 393.1 3.96 10.07 -0.4%
7 B2Gold BTG 3.57 1074.567 3.59 3.34 -6.4%
8 Hecla Mining GFI 5.56 603.86 3.12 5.17 -7.0%
9 Eldorado Gold EGO 8.36 185.73 1.69 9.12 9.1%
10 Wesdome Gold WDOFF 5.53 142.287 0.65 4.59 -17.0%
All prices and stock quotes in U$ Port. avg -6.33%
The PM producers took the brunt of the hit against mining stocks and the performance of the
Producer Basket, with all ten of our component stocks losing ground on the week, was typical
of the sector. The percentage losses ranged from least worst Wheaton (WPM down 3.4%) to
most worst Eldorado (EGO down 7.5%) and overall, our exposure to midcap stocks on a level
18

stakes basis made our overall performance slightly worse than that of the GDX benchmark.
The 2023 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
comparative to GDX control
16%
14% 12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
Newmont (NEM) and Newcrest (NCM): From the roaring silence over NEM’s courtship of
NCM last week, even while the mining industry’s
biggest annual bunfest was on, you’d think the deal
were already dead and buried. Well in fact it may be,
but there was something of a pulse from the
comparative chart as NCM stretched its lead over NEM
by another couple of points on Thursday and Friday.
That’s what you’d want to see if the deal was gaining
momentum and while the arb is modest to date,
there’s small reason to be hopeful something else
happens now. Perhaps we’re about to see a
sweetened offer? Time will tell, but overall I’m still
firmly in the “not gonna happen” camp on this one.
Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM): he best (least worst) bigcap performer of the week,
WPOM got a boost from the reaction to its Q4 and 2022 YE financials, filed for the Friday open.
We already knew WPM’s Q4 was light on
production, thanks to the Feb 21st NR
informing the world (we ran this chart
(right) in this post (7) on the open blog
that day.) But for whatever reason, WPM
got a pass and come Friday the market
was ready to reward Mr Smallwood thanks
to its decent bottom line profit (8), despite
full-year gold equivalent (AuEq) output of
638,048 coming up short of the 2022
guidance.
The 2023 guidance didn’t really sparkle
either, with WPM forecasting between
600k and 660k this year, in other words the same at 2022. So the likely reason for the welcome
given to WPM was its future guidance, summed up nicely by this screenshot from its latest
corporate presentation (9):
19
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21
The 2023 Producer Basket: Percentage difference
between GDX benchmark & basket (negative = IKN ahead)
4.0%
ikn 3.5%
gdx control 3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
source: NYSE, IKN calcs ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21
source: IKN calcs, NYSE data

WPM forecasts production rising to 810,000oz in five years’ time, thanks to the suite of stream
and royalty holdings as seen above coming online, then that moves to 850,000 oz average on
the ten year horizon. That’s adding roughly a third to today’s production benchmark and with
those investments embedded, the market is now willing to pay up to own WPM over the long-
term. This strikes me as a far better business model than your average Tier 1 PM operator.
The TinyCaps List
After 10 weeks of 2023, the TinyCaps show a gain of 38.78% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Aurelius Min AUL.v 0.07 49.787 2.99 0.06 -14.3%
Coast Copper COCO.v 0.045 64.001 3.52 0.055 22.2%
District Metals DMX.v 0.075 86.891 16.94 0.195 160.0%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.13 69.962 17.84 0.255 96.2%
Manitou Gold MTU.v 0.02 344.568 15.51 0.045 125.0%
Nine Mile Metals NINE.cse 0.29 57.025 15.68 0.275 -5.2%
Palamina Corp PA.v 0.08 65.285 6.53 0.10 25.0%
Precipitate Gold PRG.v 0.075 130.367 9.13 0.07 -6.7%
South Star STS.v 0.55 32.755 16.71 0.51 -7.3%
Viva Gold VAU.v 0.14 91.608 11.91 0.13 -7.1%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 38.78%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $20m. They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a
little and allowed sub-U$20m market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, but it was a particularly depressing exercise to trawl through the whole of the TSXV and find companies
that are small enough, but with life in them. The vast majority of sub-$20m stocks are broken stocks, either
traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2023. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or
people with good peer reputations.
TinyCaps, 2023 weekly tracker
50%
The TinyCaps bucked the trend once again, with no 45%
fewer than six winners from our representative group of 40%
35%
ten including out-sized percentage moves in Aurelius 30%
(AUL.v up 20.0%) and Latin Metals (LMS.v up 10.9%). 25%
20%
Two stocks remained unchanged (MTU.v, NINE.cse) 15%
and two were losers (COCO.v, VAU.v) and the sum total 10%
5%
is to see our basket average at new highs for the year.
0%
A good performance, but one look at the above table
shows it’s driven almost entirely by the moves in DMX,
MTU and LMS.
Manitou Gold (MTU.v): As this stock is now tied
closely to the price performance of friendly suitor Alamos
(AGI), with MTU at 4.5c this weekend AGI.to would have
to trade at C$12.76 for price parity. That means AGI.to
and its close of C$13.95 leaves enough on the bone for
arb traders, even though the OPM; complex sold off last
week. As this five-day chart shows, MTU traded briefly at
20
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM ht21
source: IKN calcs, TSX data

5c last week but the main deals on good volume were struck at 4.5c. That should be attainable
if you’re still interested in some free money.
District Metals (DMX.v): This one got the full-court PDAC pumpo last week. The company
offered a reasonable NR about picking up more concession
ground, the type of news that would get a shrug and a
“well good luck then” comment if it weren’t for the occasion
and the number of social media gurus now pushing this
stock. It traded as high as 26.5c midweek before profiteers
showed and the stock finished up, but only just on the week
at 19.5c.
The obvious prop behind the stock got me thinking and
eventually tweeting on Friday morning, just before the
waves of sellers arrived (though the timing was sheer
coincidence and nothing to do with my insignificant
musings, I hasten to add). Once the criterium that this was only about the way the stock was
trading and not about the company’s prospects were laid out, we got to the point:
Explorecos are risky propositions, so backers want to reduce risk as much as possible.
The risk doesn’t disappear (of course), instead the objective is to transfer it from one
hand to another. Cue DMX and its recently closed share placement with NO ESCROW
on the newly minted shares. The moment it closed, the junior influencer mob started
the pumpo it like there was no tomorrow. Just 3 trading days later PDAC begins, with
all hoopla guaranteed. Result? DMX pops to 20c and peaks at over 25c, with all the
liquidity new buyers could ever want for this Next Big Thing. Now be clear, this does
not mean DMX will be a success/failure, that I simply do not know. What I do know is
that those people at the centre of this deal are very happy with the way they've handed
off risk to others, all thanks to the squawk of social media influencers and the flock of
sheep that swallow their "sponsored coverage" whole. Moral: If you like DMX, Swedish
U and REE and all that jazz, do what the smart money did, pay 15 and stop listening to
the pay-to-play whores.
Thos who took the company up on its $3m placement got units with a share and a half warrant
priced at 20c. That is a great deal, especially when you can flip out those shares a week later at
a 40% profit and hold through on the warrant.
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future
I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
Peru: The “mining corridor” is open
After his appearance at PDAC on Monday, Peru’s Minister of Energy and Mining gave a wide-
ranging interview to Peru’s newspaper of record, El Comercio, this weekend (10) and while a lot
of it was pro-government puffery that rested on the official investment projection numbers,
Óscar Vera had more to say about the current social protests. He said that the new round of
roadblocks of the so-called “mining corridor” of South Peru had been negotiated to an end (with
no violence or confrontation, glad to say) and that as at this weekend, the only protest hotspot
left in the country was the Puno region in the South, where “small groups that are already
diminishing” were holding out. That “small group” claim runs against the show of strength
among the communities that gathered over 5,000 people in Puno city’s main square last week,
but on the other hand the Puno region doesn’t play host to any of the major mining companies
and even if the six roadblocks left in the country (from 127 in January, according to official
numbers) continue they will not pose an issue to the vast majority of Peru’s mining industry.
The political upheaval has not gone away and this very weekend, the latest opinion poll has
74% of Peruvians want President Dina Boluarte to resign if Congress doesn’t approve early
21

elections. As 1) public opinion won’t change much 2) Congress is doing everything it can to
avoid voting for early elections and 3) Dina Boluarte, with tacit approval from Peru’s Lima ruling
class, is getting comfortable with her new job, Peru is kicking its major social problems down
the road, rather than trying to solve them. At some point it’s likely to flare up again and even if
it doesn’t, we should watch closely for the rise of the dangerous populism of Antauro Humala.
However and for the moment, there’s a little welcome calm in the country.
Chile’s Parliament votes down the Boric tax law bill
This didn’t get much airtime in the English language business wires or press, but it was the
biggest biznews out of South America last week and thanks to a reasonable report from
Bloomie, I don’t have to do any translation work (11):
Chile’s lower house unexpectedly rejected the government’s flagship tax reform that
would have created the nation’s first levy on wealth and aimed to finance a series of
spending increases, dealing another severe blow to 37-year-old President Gabriel
Boric.
From the same note:
“It’s an enormous failure by the government,” said Mauricio Morales, a professor of
political science at Chile’s Universidad de Talca.
Indeed it was. Perhaps President Boric had his eye off the ball as he went about organizing his
cabinet re-shuffle, but to fail to garner the votes at this point means that either 1) he has to put
his tax reform plans to a hostile upper house and get two thirds of votes, or 2) wait 12 months
before re-submitting his reform plans or 3) change them and re-submit in the weeks ahead. He
stated on Saturday, “We are going to insist on the tax reform without giving much detail, which
isn’t surprising as the whole of his policy and budget plans depends on raising more tax
revenue from businesses and higher net worth individuals.
The failed tax reforms are not the same bill as the mining royalty bill that is looking to raise
State burdens, mostly against large-scale copper mines. That bill is still under debate in
Congress and is likely to come to a final vote at some point in 2q23. However, the reversal last
week would have emboldened his Congressional opposition and this bill is now in their direct
line of fire. We may see horse-trading and a watered-down final bill, or if not a hot debate
come the day of the vote.
Chile’s Cabinet re-shuffle
The other big news out of Chile last week is also viewed as an overall positive for its business
sector. After a week of rumours and speculation, the much anticipated re-shuffle of cabinet
ministers in the Gabriel Boric government went down on Friday as a “highly motivated” (his
words) President changed the heads of five ministries and sent a clear message to his country:
We’re even less Lefty now. Boric named five new members of his cabinet, here’s the list:
 New Foreign Minister Alberto van Klaveren was under-secretary in the same
ministry during the first Michelle Bachelet presidency.
 New Culture Minister Jaime de Aguirre is a musician and sound engineer by
profession, but is best known in Chile as a centre-left political figure and
author of one of the “anti Pinochet” hymns of the 1990s. He is a close ally of
ex-President Michelle Bachelet
 New Minister for Sport is Jaime Pizarro, a well-known ex-footballer in the
country who was under-secretary of the same ministry during the Michelle
Bachelet years.
 New Minister of Public Works Jessica López was until Friday the President of
the State Bank and is another close ally to ex-President Michelle Bachelet
 New Minister of Science, Technology and Knowledge Innovation Aisén
Etcheverry is the only person new to the political field, is party independent
and has a centre-left political standpoint.
The common traits in the five changes at ministerial level are not difficult to spot; Boric has
moved his government closer to the political centre and away from the hard left, with the
22

departure of a couple of his (no ex) ministers getting special welcome from the right wing
opposition. We also see the rise and rise of the influence of “Concertacion”, the alliance party of
Michelle Bachelet that run the country in relay with Piñera’s right wing presidencies in the 2000s
and 2010s. In essence, this re-shuffle continues the direction began in September and the first
ministerial changes that happened after the government suffered its Constitutional Referendum
defeat. This doesn’t mean the Boric cabinet is totally stripped of Left wing politicos, it does
mean the process of watering down the strict Socialist (capital S) influence continues. Indeed,
political fall out this weekend included the resignation of the President of the Left wing PL
party, whose party lost its only minister from the cabinet and accused Boric of a disloyalty. As
for the analysts in country, the cabinet changes were succinctly summed up by nationally
famous ex-minister Pepe Auth, who these days makes his living as a pundit. He said
(translated) (12), “It’s a change toward moderation, a change toward realism, a change toward
efficiency. I’d say it’s these three things. It’s a change toward the Concertation party centre-
left, with more experienced people now in charge.”
Panama reaches agreement with First Quantum (FM.to) on Panamá Cobre
We anticipated the news last weekend in IKN720 and sure enough, Wednesday brought it.
Here’s Reuters (13):
PANAMA CITY, March 8 (Reuters) - Panama's government and Canada's First
Quantum Minerals (FM.TO) agreed on the final text for a contract to operate a key
copper mine, according to a statement signed by both parties Wednesday.
The new contract guarantees a minimum annual income of $375 million to the Central
American government, and will be effective for 20 years with the option to renew for 20
more.
"With this contract, Panama expects to receive about ten times more than what it was
getting" under the previous contract, the statement added.
The deal needs official ratification by the government of Panama and its Congress in a process
that will last 30 days, but that’s expected to be a rubber-stamping exercise as the agreement is
almost exactly the same as the one informally agreed upon in early 2022. Also, in supposedly
unrelated news on Friday, we had this (14):
PANAMA CITY, March 11 (Reuters) - Panama's Maritime Authority has lifted a
suspension on First Quantum Minerals' operations at the port of Punta Rincon, which
the Canadian company uses to export copper concentrate from its key Cobre Panama
mine, company sources said late on Friday.
By denying its export license on a technicality, the government used the Port Authority as one
of its bargaining chips in this negotiation and apparently, it worked. First Quantum comes out of
this mess looking bad and the government of Panama has scored serious points with its
population by facing down the foreign mining company and extracting a far better State
burdens deal. Resource Nationalism is here to stay, ladies and gents, so while FM.to now has a
reasonable and stable long-term agreement, don’t think for a moment that we won’t see the
same type of move from other countries on other mines.
Market Watching
Equinox Gold (EQX) (EQX.to) continues to show its leverage
I’m not going to flog this horse any further than this
week without putting the stock on the formal watch list,
but with gold trading at the sweet spot for this high cash
cost producer, once again we saw good and volatile
trading out of Equinox (EQX) last week and a sharp
rebound on Friday as gold traded up.
That’s the type of chart you fliptraders look for.
23

Conclusion
IKN721 is done, we end with bullet points:
 He disappointment over Newcore’s light 43-101 MRE has worn off. This is a good
company doing things the right way and deserves to be values much higher than this. I
surprised myself by getting very close to calling an addition on the stock this weekend,
but with the market the way it is we might get the chance of some truly cheapo papers
if junior sell off further. So, some dry powder for a while at least.
 Copper. Have some exposure.
 Avoid Colombia. Seriously. Great place to visit and vacation, of course, but that’s not
we’re talking about here.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stock is Minera Alamos (MAI.v). Flash
updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best wishes, Mark
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/03/schedule-for-week-of-march-12-2023.html
(2) https://newcoregold.com/news/newcore-gold-announces-updated-mineral-resource-estimate-for-the-enchi-gold-
project-ghana/
(3) https://www.canadianinsider.com/node/7?menu_tickersearch=NCAU+%7C+Newcore+Gold
(4) https://anacortesmining.com/2023/03/steppe-gold-ltd-to-acquire-anacortes-mining-corp-to-create-a-leading-
diversified-precious-metals-producer/
(5) https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/copper-drifts-lower-on-concern-over-china-demand-and-u-s-rates/
(6) https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/copper-eases-again-on-concern-about-growth-ahead-of-jobs-data/
(7) https://iknnews.com/a-poor-q4-from-wheaton-precious-metals-wpm/
(8) https://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/wheaton-precious-metals-generates-strong-cash-operating-margins-in-2022-
2023-03-09
(9) https://s21.q4cdn.com/266470217/files/doc_presentations/2023/03/10/23-3-10-March-Corporate-Presentation-
Final.pdf
(10) https://elcomercio.pe/economia/las-bambas-oscar-vera-el-corredor-minero-de-las-bambas-ya-esta-liberado-las-
companias-estan-mas-tranquilas-porque-van-camino-a-normalizar-sus-operaciones-entrevista-mineria-puno-minem-
banco-mundial-noticia/
(11) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-08/chile-lower-house-rejects-key-tax-bill-in-blow-to-the-
government
(12) https://www.ex-ante.cl/pepe-auth-y-cambio-de-gabinete-del-presidente-boric-la-que-avanzo-fue-la-concertacion/
(13) https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/panama-canadas-first-quantum-agree-final-text-contract-2023-03-
08/
(14) https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/panama-gives-canadas-first-quantum-go-ahead-operate-port-
terminal-2023-03-11/
24

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2022
Closed in 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
Goldshore Res GSHR.v Nov'22 C$0.18 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 88.9% Quick profit taken
Palamina Corp PA.v Dec'22 C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.08 -72.9% Clear-out of underperformer
Pure Gold PGM.h Dec'22 C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.015 -89.3% tiny trade on vh risk, went Ch11
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Set-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
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Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
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Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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