IKN #720Premium

The IKN Weekly
Week 720, March 5th 2023
Contents
This Week: Trade heads-up, In Today’s Edition, Jobs testimonies and other matters Fed-
related.
Fundamental Analysis: Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) 4q22 financials and 2023 outlook.
Stocks to Follow: Western Copper & Gold (WRN.to) (WRN), SolGold (SOLG.to), Anacortes
Mining (XYZ.v), ATAC Resources (ATC.v), Abrasilver (ABRA.v), Minera Alamos (MAI.v), Rio2 Ltd
(RIO.v), Aldebaran (ALDE.v).
Copper Basket: Overview, Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.v), Faraday Copper (FDY.to), Libero
Copper (LBC.v), Solaris Resources (SLS.to).
Producer Basket: Overview, Newmont (NEM) and Newcrest (NCM).
TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Manitou Gold (MTU.v), District Metals (DMX.v).
Regional Politics: Colombia: The Vice-Minister of Mining is resigned, Peru: Protests starting to
flare up again, Ecuador: Lasso is running out of options, Panama close to a deal with First
Quantum (FM.to) on Panamá Cobre, Chile: Boric set to re-shuffle his cabinet of ministers.
Market Watching: American Eagle (AE.v): A swing and a miss, Keeping an eye on COPJ,
Equinox Gold (EQX) (EQX.to) redux.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
Trade heads-up
I plan on making two trades in the days to come:
1) Sellling Western Copper & Gold (WRN.to) (WRN): It’s becoming clear that any M&A
action around this company will happen later, rather than sooner. There will be plenty
of opportunity to revisit this stock and make a potentially winning trade if it comes
under offer, but I’m now betting on that being 4q23 earliest. As the reason to hold this
stock is for its buyout potential, I’ve decided to step back, sell the position and put the
embedded cash to work in another place.
2) Adding SolGold (SOLG.to) (SOLG.L). After buying two weeks ago and adding last week,
the way it traded in the last three trading days gives reason to believe its deal with
Chinese money is close. So the cash raised from WRN is earmarked for a further
addition here as one puts one’s money where one’s mouth is.
More details in today’s Stocks to Follow section, below.
In Today’s Edition
 It’s copper all the way today, with an entire issue stacked around your author’s
(current) preferred metal trade medium. Copper dominates the main fundies section, it
shows in Market Watching, we’re trading out of one copper stocks and adding to the
trade of another. Last but not least, the section dedicated to its coverage, The Copper
Basket, has new reasons to be exposed to its future.
 It’s also a largely upbeat edition, As the Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) better late then
never financials show takes centre stage and it’s just about all good news from those
numbers as far as I’m concerned. Today’s main fundies piece.
1

 As for the trade plans, the market has offered me a diplomatically acceptable way out
of my holding in Western Copper (WRN.to) after watching the CEO flag the true
likelihood of an early sale to RTZ (or other) recently. So I’m taking it and with the
money raised, will look to add to the new but already successful looking trade in
SolGold (SOLG.to) (SOLG.L). That’s in Stocks to Follow, along with notes and jottings
on other stocks including the big hole reported by Aldebaran last week.
 I’ll point you toward two Regional Politics notes worth considering, those on Colombia
and Ecuador. Neither bring good news for mining companies.
Jobs, testimonies and other matters Fed-related
The US Federal Reserve is far from my favourite topic of conversation, but it has been constant
of intro notes in 2023 to date, as we try to keep tabs on the main driver of macro sentiment
and money flow as we wait…patiently…for gold’s turn to get a fire lit under it. This weekend’s
note is no exception as we take a brief look back on recent Fed events and then consider
what’s in the pipeline. But before doing so, let’s cover a semi-related topic and the next US BLS
Employment report, due out Friday. According to Calculated Risk (1) the consensus number is
+200,000 NFP jobs and a headline UR of 3.4%. It’s worth recalled that as January’s BLS jobs
data came in with a massive over of +517,000 NFP jobs and sent shockwaves through the
markets about the continued strength of the US economy, we can expect many observers to
take the over on this week’s current +200k estimate.
But before we get to BLS Friday we have one of Fed Head Jerome Powell’s main engagements
for the year, the two-day Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress, as he presents
to the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs and then takes questions
from the floor (Rand Paul in the house). It happens on Tuesday and Wednesday (morning
sessions), is a main Fed event and with both sides of the Fed’s dual mandate in-play at the
moment, the financial world will be scraping his comments for clues and hints of policy
decisions to come. In order to preview the potential issues that may come up as the Fed
presents to the USG and the world chews over the interactions, our intro covers the current
30,000ft scenario via some straightforward questions and answers. As we’ve trod most of this
territory before, its semi-note form should be more than enough to make the point (my prose
drags on otherwise):
What does the Fed want for the US economy? A soft landing.
How does it get a soft landing? By keeping things under control and not inducing a
recession, the resulting massive job losses and corporate bankruptcies.
Does the Fed want to control inflation? Yes.
Why? To avoid a recession. If inflation continues, consumer spending power is lost and
the economy will tank.
How will the Fed act to control inflation? It will raise base rates for interest.
Will this control inflation? Supposedly, yes. As more money is taken out of circulation, the
rate of economic activity eventually drops. They want to slow things down without it
losing too much steam…that’s the desired “soft landing” and from there, once inflation is
controlled, it can loosen the monetary strings and let the economy expand again. What
could possibly go wrong?
What’s the problem with the Fed strategy? There are several issues. It has more control
over demand (e.g. the number of people with disposable income) than supply (i.e. the
things that disposable income can buy). The Covid-19 money drop has yet to work
through the economy and people still have money to spend. Increasing good supply
takes time and is not a direct part of the fed remit, so the Fed is trying to dampen
demand by removing money from circulation. Another issue is the effect of higher prices
on consumer spending. It may seem counter-intuitive, but an inflationary background
tends to make consumers spend more quickly. This is something any Latin-American over
the age of 40 can attest to (and anyone who lives in Venezuela or Argentina). For
example, if you want to buy a consumer durable (fridge) and it costs 2000 currency units
2

this month and is likely to cost 3000 currency units next month, you don’t tend to wait
around. To return to The USA for a moment, it is not in a hyper-inflationary scenario but
the same principles apply and until the cost of money increases to a sufficient level (i.e.
those base rates) consumer spending will fuel price inflation.
Ok, but if the Fed raises rates sharply, will it spook the market? Yes. The Fed wants to
engineer a soft landing. If it hits the brakes too hard and threatens to drag the USA into
recession, the market sells off and this creates a vicious circle as a sudden market
downturn (or crash) is not separate from the real economy and will induce a recession.
It’s one thing to cool the economy, another to put it into deep freeze by causing mass
lay-offs and corporate bankruptcies.
What will the Fed try to do, then? We assume it will raise rates and threaten to raise
them higher still, in order to spook consumers and stop them from spending as much,
but at some point back off.
Does that also apply to the stages of the total hike? For example, if the Fed threatens to
raise base interest rates quickly but eventually raises rates at a more modest cadence,
will the market rally? Yes, because it will allow the Fed to control inflation and move the
economy toward a soft landing. Or at least that’s what the Fed is aiming for and
attempting to engineer as it interacts with the market. Again, we need to take the reality
with a grain of salt and give the Fed out best Dr. Pepper “What could possibly go
wrong?” question, but what we are tracking is the Fed’s attitude and plans to reach its
desired soft landing. The results will come later.
That’s enough fakey Q&A and my theoretical blabberings, so with the scene set here’s some
news from yesterday Saturday (2):
March 4 (Reuters) - San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly on
Saturday sounded a clear warning on the inflationary threat, and signaled that the U.S.
central bank may raise interest rates further, and keep them there longer, than has
been expected.
From the same note…
Fed policymakers will publish fresh projections for policy and the economy at the close
of their upcoming March 21-22 meeting.
Some traders are even betting the Fed will deliver a half-point hike in March, rather
than the quarter-of-a-percentage point rate hike seen as most likely - a reversion of
sorts to the super-aggressive stance the U.S. central bank pursued much of last year.
Mary Daly is currently on the non-voting rotation at the Fed (her vote returns next year), which
puts her in the same camp as the two Fed people we quote two weekends ago on the same
general subject, James Bullard and Loretta Mester. However and unlike those two, Ms. Daly is a
notable Fed Dove and normally a faithful mouthpiece for the views of FedHead Jerome Powell.
Seeing these words from Dove Daly sends a stronger message of the potential of a 50bps raise
in three weeks’ time and, we suggest, exactly the kind of jawbone the Fed wants right now.
The same image Bullard and Mester tried to portray and for the same reasons, as a market that
starts to build the possibility of a 50bps hike at the next FOMC will breathe its required sigh of
relief when 25bps inevitably shows up, thereby keeping the market buoyed and the world in the
happy place.
Bottom line: This desk is certain we will get a 25bps raise from the Fed when the next FOMC
meets, March 20th and 21st. However, it isn’t in the Fed’s best interest to be predictable at the
moment and allow the market to fully bake in its assumptions, as it wants to spread a little
nervousness and fear among market participants. Fear will make people think twice, hold off
from placing their bets (they’ll swear they are investments) and do their bit toward the Fed’s
real goal, i.e. the careful slowing of the US economy to work inflation out of the system whole
affecting as few Main St jobs as possible (which in turn gives the economy time to unlock the
supply bottleneck unblock and for supply to catch up to demand). While I agree it’s all rather
Utopian, our job isn’t to grade the Fed on its future results (not yet at least), instead we’re here
to make profitable trades and in this market, the way the Fed jumps is all-important for the
future pricing of gold.
3

We expect to be behest to the US inflation data for some time to come, but by forecasting a
Fed that raises by 25bps in the next two (or three) FOMC instead of taking a more hawkish
stance, we open the potential for “all that pivot talk” to begin sooner, rather than later when if
a more benign inflation reading shows. That’s the right scenario for gold, one where 1) the Fed
is not raising rates as aggressively as in 2022 and 2) inflation shows new signs of receding.
Today we’re not trying to predict 2) as that’s to come in future BLS data dumps, but getting 1)
in the right order will allow gold to run if/when inflation drops by a goodly amount.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) 4q22 financials and 2023 outlook
Better late than never, this week we run the numbers on the Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) 4q22
financial results, as well as making adjustments to our 2023 estimates and model as we
incorporate the information offered by ARG in its YE financials, MD&A, new presentation and of
course the Conference Call. Those links and documents are all available on the ARG website
(3), including a useful ConfCall transcript here (4). We previewed ARG’s Q4 in IKN714 dated
January 22nd and went into the 2023 guidance estimates on that day. Today we add the hard
dollar numbers via financial results, but after taking an extra week to work the model and
consider how 2023 is rolling out there are significant changes to our estimates compared to
IKN714 mean that the previous guesstimates are now obsolete.
And the good news is that most of the changes are to the upside. But enough unnecessary
preamble, let’s get into it starting with the main copper sales table. The 4q22 sales number of
16.79m lbs cu was pre-announced, but I’ve made a few slight tweaks to the 2023 estimates
based on the information received (mainly the ConfCall) and while we still expect ARG’s Q2 to
be lower than the other quarters due to the scheduled downtime of its DET feed supplier (as
well as its own scheduled maintenance plans at MVC), we now assume 2023 total sales of 64m
lbs Cu, some 2m lbs above the conservative guidance figures given by ARG.
ARG.to: Copper sales
4
28.11 7.31
29.41 9.51 11.51 31.51 9.61 298.61 92.61 68.41 81.61 97.61 2.61
51
3.61 5.61
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 tse32q1 tse32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
source: company filings
rtq/uC
sblM
As for the price of that copper, the U$3.80/lb average received price was also pre-announced in
its production NR but going forward, we’re now
assuming a slightly higher average copper price in
ARG: Cu gross value, per qtr
2023. We assume U$4.10/lb for the current Q1,
then U$4.20/lb for the rest of the year with the
hope (ugh, that word) that copper prices out-
perform that model but without the assumption
they do. That gives gross value for copper salres as
seen in this chart (right), with 1q23 expected at
U$66.4m and so forth.
Then come the charges and adjustments to that
gross value total and the first is the fair value
2.72
3.33
3.44
0.65 1.85 6.66 0.27 6.27 8.37 7.36 8.65 241.16 4.66 0.36 5.86 3.96
80
70
60
50
40 30
20
10
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 tse32q1 tse32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
U$m
source: company filings, IKN ests

adjustment on previous sales. We’ve been over this purely accounting item previously and how
assumptions on revenues from previous quarters are eventually adjusted to account for the real
transaction price for the copper it delivers. Due to the lag between dispatch and billing, ARG
has to assume a sales price for its copper in one quarter but then, if the price of copper rises or
falls between then and the date the invoice is cancelled, make suitable adjustments in following
quarters. What this means in practice is that ARG gets to add revenue to a quarter if copper
goes up and must subtract if copper goes down. We saw the accounting charge taken by its
books in 2022 when copper dropped sharply, now we get the flipside as copper rebounded well
in Q4 and the result means it gets to add this much…
ARG: Gross Cu and fair value adjustments, per qtr
5
857.4
768.2-
146.2 216.5 948.7- 677.8- 587.4
6
1 0 0
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 tse32q1 tse32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
U$m
Fair value adj
Cu revs
source: company filings
…U$4.875m, to its Q4 gross revenues. I’ll stress
again that this item is for accounting purposes and
over time is a wash, but we can expect a positive
addition to the next quarter as well, thanks to the
approximate 30c/lb that copper has added to its
average since the end of Q4. The next stage is to
back out the charges taken on gross, which include
transport, smelting and the big one, the royalty it
pays to its feed supplier, the El Teniente mine
(DET) (right). As the DET royalties are on a sliding
scale, we expect ARG to pay more in 2023 than it
did last year and that is reflected in the above
chart. Finally we add in the credit from the
molybdenum by-product and here is a place that adds in new and good news to our model:
ARG: Mo credits
605.3
267.4
116.5
822.4
683.3
142.2
294.3
149.5
6 6 6 6
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 tse32q1 tse32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
ARG: Charges to Cu revs
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
U$m
source: company filings, IKN ests
The payments of almost U$6m in 4q22 were way above our previous U$3.5m assumption and a
result of the big spike we’ve seen in the price of moly. This is a welcome bonus for the
company and if the new moly price sticks for the whole of 2023, ARG would theoretically earn
up to U$10m in gross revenues per quarter from its by-product (though it does pay a royalty on
the mo as well). We haven’t pitched that high for 2023 and, as you can make out above, have
plugged in a flat assumption of U$6m/qtr for the credit metal. That’s very good money and if
things go well, may even be on the low side.
That brings us to the “revenues total” number, i.e. the amount that makes it to the top line of
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 tse32q1 tse32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
U$m Transport
smelting/refining
DET royalties
source: company filings, IKN ests

the P+L:
ARG: Gross Cu value, Cu revs and Revs total, per qtr
6
797.37
904.97
567.35 766.36 818.55
485.33
457.65 879.74
858.03
241.16 729.56 548.94 4.66 24.27
73.25
0.36 46
80.54
5.86 64.86
18.84
3.96 3.96
46.94
90
80
70
60
50
40 30
20
10
0
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 tse32q1 tse32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
U$m Cu gross value
Cu revs
Revs total
source: company filings
In 4q22 that was U$49.845m and we expect that to be beaten in the current quarter, thanks
mainly to the improved copper price that we estimate at U$4.10/lb received average.
Before we move to the financial results, we take a side-step and consider another way of
cutting and slicing the data we’ve featured here before. We run a per-Lb show by starting with
the average gross copper revenues then subtracting the main cost items, which leaves us with
the margin ARG runs per Lb copper. The first chart shows the main cost items as reported by
the company, which cover all-but 3c of the “Total Cost/lb” number as reported in the MD&A,
but also leaves out the moly credit and as a result, once we sit the total next to the average
received price of copper in the second chart below we get a handle on the baseline profitability
of MVC
ARG: Main costs per Lb Cu
88.1
60.1
18.1
33.1
26.1
22.1
86.1
82.1
09.1
73.1
10.2
32.1
39.1
88.0
01.2
39.0
4.00
3 3 . . 0 5 0 0 0.32 0.33 0.33 0.32 0.39 0.39 0.37 0.36
2.50 2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4
U$/lb smelt/refine/lb
cash cost/lb
DET royalty/lb
source: ARG data, IKN calcs
ARG: Estimated margin/Lb Cu
52.3
80.4
38.0 74.3
44.4
79.0 61.3
32.4
70.1 82.3
23.4
40.1 56.3
46.4
99.0 36.3
01.4
74.0
81.3
05.3
23.0
93.3
08.3
14.0
5.00
4.50
4.00
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00 1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4
U$/lb Cu main cost subtotal
Avg Cu price
difference
source: ARG data, IKN calcs
In Q4 ARG did well and cleared 41c/lb for the copper produced despite the rise in costs
reported and that one-time $2.9m worker bonus payment coming out. We should see the
difference increase in the quarters to come as copper sells at a higher price again and costs
trim slightly compared to Q4.
There are a dozen ways of presenting the data, of course, but ultimately what truly matters are

the dollars so let’s move to those. These next two charts are the same data, with the first
showing a longer-term sample for comparative purposes and the lower chart focusing in on the
last four reported quarters, along with our newly adjusted forecasts for the year ahead.
ARG.to: Quarterly Earnings overview
7
389.8
927.51
878.81 721.91
291.41
198.91
624.12
616.1
655.3-
738.8 4.41 1.8 8.01 6.11
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25 20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 tse32q1 tse32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
revenues
COGS
Gross profit
ARG.to: Quarterly Earnings overview
624.12
616.1
655.3-
738.8
4.41
1.8
8.01
6.11
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 tse32q1 tse32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
revenues
COGS
Gross profit
Focusing on the second chart, we saw costs rise in 4q22 to U$41.008m, with about half the
increase non-recurring. That information has fed our revised model for 2023 and after erring on
the side of caution in the quarters, we get the gross profit numbers as seen above.
They then become the operating profit (more important) and net income (less important
estimates you see in this chart, below:
ARG.to: Gross, operating and net profits, per qtr 10.12
74.1- 41.5- 10.1-
08.21
05.6
01.9 06.9
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 tse32q1 tse32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
U$m Gross profit
op profit
Net Income
source: ARG data
Before moving on, we consider the way U$8.837m in gross profit became a U$1.01m operating
loss. That’s all about an U$11.5m write down on obsolete equipment and in the ConfCall, CEO
Aurora Davidson gave more flavour on that. We quote:
Those generators are legacy pieces of equipment, I would call it legacy clunkers, that we had at
MVC. We bought them many years ago, basically when we were facing substantially higher
power costs from a crisis that Chile was facing back in the day, and we looked at the alternative of
having those

generators to basically generate power, sell it to the Chilean grid, and offset some of the costs
that we faced through our power contracts. That risk has been mitigated. We have, as you know,
long-term power contracts that guarantee us competitive supply rates to 2037. In the meantime,
those generators, which operate with fuel, started to become obsolete pieces of equipment
gradually. The cost of operating them is higher than what the grid will pay you for the power that
they can churn out. They were essentially in idle mode, except in those exceptional
circumstances where we got a call from the grid saying we can now buy your power at a price that
is competitive for you. So we had to renew the permits for those generators in 2025 and we
decided we’re not going to do that, but we needed to provide notice to the authorities in Chile two
years in advance. So that basically triggered, from an accounting point, of view the write-down. I
mentioned, in the news release I believe it was, that the generators were fully depreciated for tax
purposes, so we basically were just carrying them on the balance sheet with a book value.
The charge is non-cash and pertains to a write down that’s not even effective until 2025, but
Chilean government rules will out and AERG took the hit to its books in the quarter.
But as the increasingly impressive CEO of ARG stated at the top of her prepared comments in
the ConfCall, “Amerigo is a cash flow story, not an earnings story. The strength of our return of
capital strategy comes out from our ability to generate cash.” We absolutely agree with that
and therefore, to show the ability ARG has to generate cash margin the way forward is to run
our “real world margin” table that takes revenues and back out non-cash costs to show what
the business does to convert tailings into real dollars:
ARG: The real world margin
8
36.4
29.2-
62.5 04.7 61.0- 30.1
33.21 97.71 24.02 93.22 79.61 15.22
49.52
95.3
20.0-
57.51
09.71 06.11 02.41 07.41
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 tse32q1 tse32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
U$m
source: ARG data, IKN calcs and ests
After that lean period last year when copper prices dropped and put ARG back into tick-over
mode, Q4 roared back and generated over $15m in cash. With copper now priced handily over
U$4/lb we fully expect those good results to consider and the estimated total of U$58.4m over
the four quarters of 2023 and gives a gauge of the pool of cash from which ARG can do what it
wants to do.
The company has obligations, of course, and there’s around U$20m in capex and debt
repayment obligations budgeted to cover from those earnings, then we know the company
plans to make full use of the NCIB share buyback program, set to cancel 11.08m shares in 2023
to December 1st. Let’s make a rough assumption of U$13m to cover those, then of course we
have the 3c/share Canadian per quarter regular dividend payment, which should come to a
total of around U$13.5m if forex remains steady.
That leaves around U$12m in the pot for discretionary uses and that’s the money available for
any bonus dividend payment in our current model. So without stretching too hard we can see
there’s around 8c/share Canadian as a potential bonus/extra/top-up (call it what you will)
dividend potential, above and beyond the regular 3c/qtr as long as ARG delivers on production,
keeps costs under control and copper prices stay at U$4.10/lb and U$4.20/lb for the year.
However, that also implies that with a higher copper price there would be more in the special
dividend pool and we also remind readers that our current moly by-product assumption of
$6m/qtr is conservatively pitched. It’s not a great stretch to see around U$7m added to the
“real world margin” for the 2023 quarters above, all it would take is for copper to trade at an
average of U$4.50/lb and for moly to stay where it is for the rest of the year. Suddenly and in
my sketched-out blue-sky scenario, that 8c/share special dividend could be as high as
30c/share.

However, good forecasts are not based on perfect world futures and for the time being, I think
it fair to pitch at ARG offering a modest bonus dividend of 8c or so, along with the proposed
share buybacks and the regular dividends and I for one would be very happy with a 20c cash
return for my shares as at a C$1.60 share price, it would turn the current implied approximate
7.5% dividend yield (which is still very good) into a frankly excellent 12.5% yield. Just as
importantly, it would lay down a statement of intent for all the dividend-chasing insto portfolios
out there and the interest (pardon the pun) would push the share price a lot higher.
How high? A lot depends on the forward price of copper of course and we’ve crunched these
type of numbers before, but if we assume ARG is eventually driven by demand for its shares
from fund managers looking to lock up a juicy dividend payer into their long-term client
portfolios (as seems to be the case, the way CEO Davidson has been pitching to the market) we
can run the numbers again. Here’s a table of yields:
Amerigo (ARG.to): Dividend Yield Percentage Spread Table
Share Dividend per year (Cad Dollar Cents)
price CAD$ 12 15 20 25 30
1.00 12.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00
1.25 9.60 12.00 16.00 20.00 24.00
1.50 8.00 10.00 13.33 16.67 20.00
1.75 6.86 8.57 11.43 14.29 17.14
2.00 6.00 7.50 10.00 12.50 15.00
2.25 5.33 6.67 8.89 11.11 13.33
2.50 4.80 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00
2.75 4.36 5.45 7.27 9.09 10.91
3.00 4.00 5.00 6.67 8.33 10.00
source: ARG data, IKN estimates
At the current baseline 3c/qtr payout and assuming no further share buybacks, there’s enough
backbone in this structure to see ARG return to the C$2.00 price level without breaking sweat
(as 6% yield is still strong compared to most divi payers). But add in an 8c bonus payment and
we can start to dream of higher share prices, ones that perhaps wouldn’t be able to demand
the same yield (special and regular divis are different, after all) but would still add multiples to
the attractiveness of the 8c extra offered. Ceteris paribus, I could easily imagine ARG trading at
or around C$2.50/share under those circumstances. As for the blue-sky, there’s more than
enough on the other parts of that table for you to consider if copper goes higher and the
special dividends become fat (or ARG ups its regular payout to 4c/share or more, of course).
As for balance sheet items, I’m going to spare you the extended suite of charts and
commentary because ARG continues to be a rock solid company and will easily manage to cover
its plans and budgets under the expected copper price for 2023. I’ll just run three charts,
starting with working capital…
ARG.to: Working capital
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
9
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 tse32q1 tse32q2
U$m
source company filings
…to show there’s zero liquidity problems at this company even as it returns all that capital to
shareholders we predict above. That’s partly due to this…

ARG: Debt profile
10
7.45 7.16 6.95 0.36 1.95 6.95 6.04 8.14 3.24 9.74 7.64 7.35 7.24 9.44 9.13
7.54 8.54 2.14 2.14 0.93 7.63 1.23
8.62 8.62
4.32 5.32 0.02 1.02 6.61
8.61
9.31
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
51q4 61q1 61q2 61q3 61q4 71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 tse32q1 tse32q2
U$m
long-term borrowings
current borrowings
source: company data
…and the way ARG has prudently paid down its debt obligations over the years, a process that
accelerated in 2021 when copper prices were favourable. These days all that’s left are the very
manageable 2x U$3.5m scheduled debt repayments per year and there’s no need to bring those
forward.
Our final chart today is the share count (with a cut-down Y-axis) that shows we predict the
whole of the NCIB to be used in 2023 and the share count to leave 2023 at 156m:
ARG.to: Shares Out
190
(NB: cut down Y-axis)
185
180
175
170
165
160
155
150
145
140
71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 tse32q1 tse32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
source: company filings, IKN ests
serahs
fo
snoillim
A small matter to clear up on this, as last week saw some of the insider tracker feeds show
multiple insider trades going through on March 1st and 2nd . It looked odd, so I checked with the
company and they informed that only 467k options were made into fully-paid up shares (by
Klaus Zeitler, who has no intention of selling them apparently). We do know that after the
resumption of the NCIB on February 23rd, ARG bought back another 137,616 shares at an
average of C$1.51 in the last days of February and we should expect them to be active at
market in this month and those to come. The 467k in exercised options is small beer compared
to that.
The bottom line: I’m loathe to stick a definitive share price target on ARG today because so
much depends on the price of copper going forward, but if we assume copper sticks above
U$4/lb and then kicks higher, the C$2.25 and C$2.50 prices mentioned when considering the
dividend yield would be easily obtainable this year. The risk, as it stands, is using ARG as a
speculative vehicle for leverage on copper and then seeing the metal head back under
U$4.00/lb for an extended period, because that would take the potential of the special extra
dividend off the table and perhaps see the stock back in the C$1.30 to C$1.50 range, but if
you’re like me and happy to take the long-term view, you’re going to get paid your regular
3c/qtr dividend no matter what. Instead and at the current price deck, the most likely move is
to the upside and it would only take a continuation of U$4.00/lb, plus ARG delivering as
planned, for the equity price to move higher than it is today.
ARG is such an obvious buy from a fundamental standpoint that I find myself having to say the
same things in different ways when it’s time to look at its financials and continue coverage. It’s

an excellent business model executing very well under the impeccable leadership of CEO
Davidson and her team and if they were all as boring as this company, my job would be a
whole lot easier. Buy some, own some, you won’t regret it.
Stocks to Follow
A good week for the Stocks to Follow list, with just three covered stocks registering losses
(CTGO, XYZ.v, MENE.v) and all of them from the small end of the table, as well. There were
two other stocks that remained UNCH (ORX.v, MIRL.cse) which leaves 11 winners from 16
names, so we’re not listing them all. Instead, we applaud the biggest percentage winners and
move on so a cheer or two for SolGold (SOLG.to up 34.8%), Western Copper (WRN.to up
19.0%), Amerigo Resources (ARG.to up 11.7%) and you too have probably noticed the metal
those three big movers have in common.
We currently have 16 open positions (and 13 personal trades), four under our self-imposed
maximum level. That will be down to 14 by this time next week, as two names are dropped
(WRN, XYZ). Eight of the trades are in the green, one is unchanged, seven are in the red.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.385 83.3% $0.75 first tgt, #1 idea
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Amerigo Res ARG.to STR BUY C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.62 19.1% Main Cu trade, top fundies
Western Copper WRN.to SELLING C$2.02 13-Nov-22 C$2.38 17.8% giving up, may return Q3
SolGold SOLG.to STR BUY C$0.25 19-Feb-23 C$0.31 24.0% New Cu trade Feb'23, M&A tgt
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v SPEC BUY C$0.275 25-Apr-21 C$0.165 -40.0% MRE now due 2q23, annoying
AbraSilver Res. ABRA.v STR BUY C$0.37 4-Dec-22 C$0.30 -18.9% Added end Jan, v cheap
Newcore Gold NCAU.v BUY C$0.21 23-Oct-22 C$0.235 11.9% Cheap now, MRE any moment
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v HOLD C$0.83 22-Apr-18 C$0.175 -78.9% Cheap on permit probs, appeal
SPECULATIVE TRADES
Orefinders ORX.v.v SPEC BUY C$0.04 23-Oct-22 C$0.04 0.0% build position at 4c
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v SPEC BUY C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$2.16 -29.6% Au leverage, small trade so far
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v BUY C$0.72 16-May-21 C$0.92 27.8% drill assays from March'23
Minera IRL MIRL.cse avoid C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.04 -79.5% run into ground byCEO, AVOID
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
ATAC Res ATC.v WATCH C$0.095 11-Sep-22 C$0.135 42.1% Cheap Yukon neighbour play
Contango Ore CTGO WATCH U$23.25 2-Dec-22 U$23.60 1.8% watching for financinf package
Anacortes Mining XYZ.v DROPPING C$0.49 22-Jul-22 C$0.35 -28.6% drop from watchlist Mar'23
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.63 6-Dec-20 C$0.36 -42.9% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2023 date closed close price
Altiplano Metals APN.v jan'23 C$0.31 17-Sep-21 C$0.17 -45.2% delayed and will dilute soon
2015 to 2022 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for some brief notes on some of the covered companies, but in a quiet week for newsflow
from our covered companies, there’s not so much to say.
Western Copper & Gold (WRN.to) (WRN): SELLING. The rebound in WRN has given me
the window of opportunity to make good on my idea to sell out and move on from the trade, as
laid out in IKN718 two weekends ago. That was the weekend we found out that WRN CEO Paul
West-Sells had just dumped 254,000 of his shares in the company (he only had 734k!) and
11

what’s more, had done the deed in a sneaky backdoor manner, filing as late as possible to keep
the price high for his sales. That day we wrote:
If there’s one thing that gets my goat, it’s a CEO who says one thing and does another.
This is a despicable turn of events and no better signpost for “No Deal With RTZ
Forthcoming” is possible, so it’s almost certainly the reason WRN shares sold off the
way they did a couple of weeks ago (West Sells’ brokers would have taken the same
line as this desk, the only difference being they would also act on this inside info
without a second thought).
It’s obviously too late to act in the way that others could and WRN at $2.09 is back to
cheap and oversold, no matter what its backsliding CEO says or does in the meantime.
Therefore and for the time being I’m not a seller of this stock but even a slight rebound
from today’s levels would have me seriously thinking about cashing in and moving on. I
have better things to do with my money than funding the lifestyles of two-faced mining
executives.
That I’m sponsoring his lifestyle or not is one annoying factor, but the main issue is the signal
these trades send about the likelihood of a
buyout. We know that in 4q22 RTZ enacted its
contract clause to let it keep its oversight
position for another 12 months and the move
by CEO West-Sells tells this desk that RTZ is
going to take all its time before making a
decision. Therefore we can leave the door open
to return to WRN and run another trade nearer
the likely M&A window at the end of the year,
but there’s no need in my opinion to leave
money sitting here when it can find a more
dynamic place for copper exposure. I’ll leave
with a modest win and that’s fine I suppose,
but it wasn’t the plan.
SolGold (SOLG.to): POSITION ADDED AND WANT EVEN MORE. SOLG is now in the
“recommended Stocks” section after getting its quick upgrade from last weekend and once
Western Copper (WRN.to) leaves, from nowhere it should be this desk’s third largest position by
this time next weekend.
I plan to deploy at least some of the cash
raised from the sale of WRN in the days ahead
to purchase some more SOLG. As the ten-day
chart shows (right), the cat seems to be out of
the bag ands SOLG even did decent business
on its normally thin-trading Canadian ticker last
week, with reasonably liquid trading on Monday
and over 1.1m shares changing hands on
Friday.
But the real fun was at SOLG’s main London
ticker and as the YTD below chart shows, the
stock has rallied from its lowest price of 2023 to
its highest price in the space of two weekends. This chart screams of short covering and the
penny seems to have dropped on the change in the corporate power dynamics at the company.
Gone are the procrastination days with BHP and NCM holding the whip hand and the market
anticipates a deal offer coming through sooner, rather than later, from the Maxit-led
negotiations with China’s Jiangxi. After watching SOLG for years, we’ve timed our entry into this
stock well and if you came along with me for this trade, we’re some of the few shareholders
with a clear profit on their positions (so many bagholders of this stock). They alone should
guarantee a much higher price if and when the offer to buy out the company arrives, but as I’m
12

now assuming it happens sooner, rather than later, I want to be fully positioned as soon as
possible. Adding.
Anacortes Mining (XYZ.v): DROPPING FROM WATCH LIST. And while we’re cleaning
house, it’s time to bring this watch list position and potential trade to an end. Since the moment
it became clear its neighbour Boroo was trying to lowball a deal on its property, XYZ has gone
cold and these days there’s precious little interest in the stock. Nothing ventured and nothing
lost, but there are better stocks to put on the watch list and so this one gets dropped, as form
next weekend.
ATAC Resources (ATC.v): Up half a cent and the arb has all-but dried up on the HL deal. If
you’re looking for an opportunity of this type, please consider Manitou (MTU.v) as seen in The
TinyCaps Basket list, below.
We’re dropping XYZ.v today due to a distinct cooling of this story and soon it will be ATAC’s
turn to be dropped from the Watch List. It gets a couple more weeks, just in case some
unexpected corporate move shows up.
Abrasilver (ABRA.v): The advent of opening coverage from Eight Capital on ABRA last week
induced an ironic comment from your author on the blog last week (5), but ultimately it’s all
part of the normal game. As VIIICap was the lead
to last year’s placement and the company had the
hosted a site visit to its flagship Diablillos project,
the coverage from this brokerage was overdue
(and it was always going to be a buy call).
However, we should also recall that the placement
did more harm than good to the company share
price due to the warrant terms and likely due to
the people attracted to the deal by the combo of
those warrant terms and the brokerage willing to
sell them all they could eat.
Anyway, the VIII report is available on this link (6)
(direct and free PDF download) and the 65c price
target is reasonable. We also get confirmation that ABRA is looking to do a deal on its La
Coipita early stage copper project in San Juan, Argentina. It’s the right location at the right time
for this asset and they’re drilling it now, so results could see ABRA either flipping it out into a
Newco or bringing in a JV to carry the project forward. I’d approve of either strategy, as this
company has more than enough on its plate with Diablillos and should stick to its knitting.
Minera Alamos (MAI.v): Those of you waiting for “the PDAC NR” from Minera Alamos will be
disappointed, this isn’t one of those juniors and it doesn’t have a NR lined up. Some signs of
cleaner trading last week and the price briefly touched 40c again.
13

It’s still a raging bargain, of course.
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v): I backed off from bugging Rio2 Ltd the first couple of months of 2023 as I
know they’ve been doing the type of background work and preparation required for their appeal
hearing in Chile, the type of work that keeps a small team very busy but offers nothing for the
outside observer. But it’s now March and I’ve booked a meeting with company Chair Alex Black
in the week ahead, so next weekend expect an update on progress at Fenix and what’s being
readied with the team of lawyers and advisors in Chile
Aldebaran (ALDE.v):
We finally got drill assay news from ALDE and that’s a good thing. As was the contents because
both holes 222 and 223 showed very well in the NR (7) and subsequent presentation, The star
of the show was #223 as it returned a long length of mineralization with economic grades all
the way down:
ALD-22-223
 1,167.50 m of 0.48% CuEq from 120 m depth
 Including 418.00 m of 0.67% CuEq from 848 m depth
 Hole ended in mineralization
ALD-22-222
 25.30 m of 0.40% CuEq from 196.70 m depth
 48.00 m of 0.27% CuEq from 248 m depth
 378.00 m of 0.46% CuEq from 848 m depth
 Hole ended in mineralization
The first hole of the season opens up a new zone at Altar that sits roughly between Altar East
and Altar Central and is testament to the confidence the tema has in its geophysics work that
identified the large and deep anomaly which has indeed turned out to be the porphyry
copper/moly body they envisaged.
The company has plenty of holes planned for this current 20,000m program that should run for
the next few months before the winter weather closes in. On considering the amount of work
done at Altar by previous operators and its current resource…
14

...what ALDE seem to be targeting is a big upgrade in inferred tonnages and contained metal,
rather than running fence drilling to make it all
M+I. That’s a reasonable plan at this stage and
ALDE.v: Working Capital per qtr
12
they’ll be able to impress the world if they get 11
10 total 43-101 compliant copper over 20bn lbs,
9
even if nearly half of it were inferred. 8
7
6
5
The other issue at ALDE is its cash position, as 4
3
while the company has all it needs for the 2
current program, our estimates suggest (right) 1
0
that they’ll have to fund again in order to
continue drilling as 2023 becomes 2024. Another
reason why I’m looking for a price at which I can
sell and take profit, rather than remain long
forever. As for trading last week, ALDE did okay
without setting the world on fire but the issue of poor volume quickly returned and Friday was
disappointing. In the webinar run by ALDE last week to discuss the results (on 6ix), Kevin
Heather said that if nobody else bought he would. We therefore await confirmation of his latest
round of insider purchases.
The Copper Basket
After nine weeks of 2023, The Copper Basket shows a gain of 5.61% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Solaris Res SLS.to 6.44 114.56 687.36 6.00 -6.8%
2 Western Copper WRN.to 2.41 151.597 360.80 2.38 -1.2%
3 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.22 88.028 333.63 3.79 17.7%
4 Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to 1.92 105.96 212.98 2.01 4.7%
5 Oroco Res OCO.v 0.91 207.034 171.84 0.83 -8.8%
6 Faraday Copper FDY.to 0.54 166.137 159.49 0.96 77.8%
7 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.78 139.007 127.89 0.92 17.9%
8 Hot Chili HCH.v 0.78 119.455 107.51 0.90 15.4%
9 Regulus Res. REG.v 1.10 124.509 104.59 0.84 -23.6%
10 Pan Global Res PGZ.v 0.46 212.145 79.55 0.375 -18.5%
11 Kodiak Copper KDK.v 1.12 55.6 48.93 0.88 -21.4%
12 QC Copper QCCU.v 0.165 150.736 24.87 0.165 0.0%
13 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.16 86.966 15.65 0.18 12.5%
14 Libero Copper LBC.v 0.155 93.869 13.61 0.145 -6.5%
15 Atacama Copper ACOP.v 0.16 34.373 6.87 0.20 25.0%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg 5.61%
15
81.ced 91.ram ey91.nuj 91.pes 91.ced 02.ram ey02.nuj 02.pes 02.ced 12.ram ey12.nuj 12.pes 12.ced 22.ram ey22.nuj 22.pes 22.ced tse32.ram tse_ey32.nuj
source company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim

The Copper Basket average bounced back in fine style last week and left its lacklustre February
behind, with eleven week-over-week winners
(SLS.to, WRN.to, MARI.to, ASCU.to, ALDE.v, 10% The Copper Basket 2023, weekly evolution
HCH.v, REG.v, FDY.to, QCCU.v, ECU.v, ACOP.v) 9%
8%
making short work of the four losers (OCO.v, 7%
6%
PGZ.v, KDK.v, LBC.v) and plenty of double- 5%
4%
figure percentage winners scattered among 3%
them, too. Best moves came from the hot Q1 2%
1%
play Faraday (FDY.to up 20.0%), then came 0%
-1%
Western (WRN.to up 19.0%), Marimaca -2%
(MARI.to up 11.8%), Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.to
up 11.7%) and Atacama Copper (ACOP.v up
11.1%). The rally in copper juniors wasn’t
limited to our list of 15 stocks, of course. The
signal seems to have come from the
Conference Circuit that there’s a large subset
of mining stocks that are priced cheaply
compared to the interest they’re getting from
instos and larger mining companies.
The junior copper rally was helped along by
the rebound in copper-the-metal to above the
psychologically important (!!) U$4.00/lb line.
However, it wasn’t a massive rally and the
selling on Thursday and Friday shows there’s
still a battle out there. As the chart of the
May’23 Comex futures contract (right) shows,
ultimately we got back to the current line in the sand, a tight $4.05 to $4.10 range. And that’s
okay for the time being as far as I’m concerned. However and before moving on to the real
news for copper last week, we remind readers of how poor market sentimentwas last weekend
and how that drop in copper to under U$4/lb happened on the back of the Fed’s newly beloved
PCE inflation reading. We wrote in IN719…
“The metal with the supposed PhD in finance and fabled lead indicator for the
economic health of the whole wide world is a mix of conflicting signals at the moment,
it just so happens that the last one we received during a volatile week was bearish,
rather than bullish.”
…along with other things of the same ilk. It pays not to run behind the newsflow and consider
the bigger picture and when you do, you see that copper’s customers aren’t going away just
because the US sees an indicator inflect this-or-that way on any given month.
We move on and get to the meat of today’s Copper Basket section, first up a report from Chile’s
sector beancounter people Cochilco on costs of production in the copper sector. With this
Spanish language report (8) you get reliable and trustworthy data collection on a representative
sample of copper producers in the world’s largest copper producer country and a better
yardstick is difficult to imagine. There’s plenty of data in the report and I strongly recommend
those into the copper space to download a copy even if Spanish isn’t a strong point, as the
charts and tables are not that difficult to follow. Here’s an example that showcases the main
finding of the report:
16
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM
source: IKN calcs

The baseline is to compare the first three quarters of 2021 to the first three quarters of 2022,
which means we get to measure the nine month period in which inflation took a tight hold of
the mining sector and cost inputs of all types shot up. We knew this, but the Cochilco report
puts quantitative numbers onto the bone and the above chart shows the breakdown of how C1
cost per pound of copper produced increased from an average of U$1.336/lb the
nine months of 2021 to U$1.668/lb in the nine months of 2022, an increase of 26.3%
on the year. Let’s run down the line items:
 Remunerations were the only item to drop, down 0.9c/lb for each Lb Cu
 TC/RC rose by a thin 0.1c/lb Cu
 By-product credits weren’t as strong in the period and added 1c/lb Cu to costs
 Electricity cost increases added 2c/lb Cu
 Transport (flete) costs rose by 2.2c/lb Cu
 Supplies/Materials were up by 3.7c/lb Cu
 Fuel costs rose by a hefty 8.2c/lb
 The black box of “other” was expensive, adding 9c/lb Cu
 Finally, the biggest cost increase for the copper sector was the rise in price for
H2SO4, which added 9.8c/lb to every Lb of copper produced
To reiterate, all these figures compare the first nine months of 2022 to the same period of
2021. It’s also worth noting that, somewhat counter-intuitively, copper spot price dropped on
average by 5c/lb in the same period.
For sure copper producers are still making very good coin even as these cost inputs rise,
particularly the massive copper porphyry operations in Chile that account for almost 90% of the
total country production total (La Escondida, Chuqui, el Teniente, etc etc) as they can make
something for less than a buck fifty and sell it for over four dollars. However, these cost inputs
make a difference to the small and medium-scale producer and their affects are not limited to
the borders of Chile. The bottom line is the simple effects of economics; higher costs will
eventually push up the price to the end user, or in the case of a freely traded and fungible
commodity will raise the market’s baseline price.
Now for our second main event for copper last week, the stellar macro reading reported by
China and for that, we turn to Reuters (9):
The manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) shot up to 52.6 from 50.1 in
January, according to China's National Bureau of Statistics, above the 50-point mark
that separates expansion and contraction in activity. The PMI far exceeded an analyst
forecast of 50.5 and was the highest reading since April 2012.
If you return your eyes to the copper price chart (above) for a moment, it was this news
dropping on Wednesday March 1st that shot the copper price up and over U$4.15/lb for a brief
moment. The metal then saw selling and closed back inside its recent trading range but frankly,
I think the market has severely underplayed the significance of last week’s China PMI reading.
Here’s a chart:
China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
17
9102naj ram yam luj pes von 0202naj ram yam luj pes von 1202naj ram yam luj pes von 2202naj ram yam luj pes von 3202naj
source: China PMI
It shows the monthly PMI since January and for PMI readings the important line is at 50.
Anything above that indicates economic expansion, anything below 50 is contraction. We see

the historically low 35.7 February 2020 reading when China closed down in the original Covid-
19 lockdown, followed by the rebound in the next month of 52.0, which was until last week the
best reading in a decade. This next chart is the same dataset, but from 2021 onward and with a
tighter Y-axis to show the difference:
China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
18
3.15 6.05 9.15 1.15 15 9.05 4.05 1.05 6.94 2.94 1.05 3.05 1.05 2.05 5.94
4.74
6.94 2.05
94
4.94 1.05 2.94
84
74
1.05
6.25
54
53
52
51
50
49
48 47
46
45
44
1202naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 2202naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 3202naj bef
source: China PMI
It’s difficult to underestimate last week’s 52.6 reading, the best since 2012. It’s the combo of 1)
the Chinese economic stimulus measures, as implemented late last year, starting to kick in and
the key word here is “starting.” There’s plenty of historic and evidential data that shows the
typical lag in China’s economy between a large-scale Keynesian stimulus measure and its fruits,
this has come at the right time and we should expect more. But that’s just one facet of the
fundies behind this blow-out reading, the other is the re-opening of the Chinese economy after
its prolonged and stringent Covid Zero Policy measures. Recall, if you will, that China enacted
its economic stimulus measures while still maintaining its semi-lockdown during the early part
of 4q22, but only relented on its draconian anti-Covid measures later when spontaneous
protests got the Politburo to change tack quickly.
We’re now seeing the result of this double upside whammy to the Chinese economy; the
downturn, obvious in the Q4 OMI readings above, is now all over. So the February number was
strong and enough on its own to boost copper (and other things), but what you should really
be thinking about is what happens when the next reading comes out strong. It’s
wouldn’t need a record number, all we want is a good expansive number and the market is
going to read a different story into China’s economic data. The combo of stimulus and re-
opening promises to be explosive for its economy, far more so than any of those anecdotal
videos of authorities demolishing empty blocks of flats in provincial cities may be.
Switching gears and as the shorter February month is now behind us by a couple of days, we
catch up with the long term copper inventory tracking charts. We’ve sent the rebound in SHFE
stocks, but it’s notable that due to the draw downs in both LME and Comex the grand total of
the three official systems remained virtually unchanged from January:
Key Cu inventory aggregate, 2012 to date
1000000
900000
800000
700000
600000
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
21.naJ ram yam luj pes von 31.naJ ram yam luj pes von 41.naj ram yam luj pes von 51.naj ram yam luj pes von 61.naj ram yam luj pes von 71.naj ram yam luj pes von 81
naj
ram yam luj pes von 91
naj
ram yam luj pes von 02
naj
ram yam luj pes von 12
naj
ram yam luj pes von 22
naj
ram yam luj pes von 32naj
Mt Cu
Comex
Shanghai
LME
source: Cochilco
Here’s a longer-term chart we feature occasionally, that of Comex stocks and the latest reading
sees its stocks lower than any time since (get this) February 2014. Not a joke. It’s even lower
than the drudge period of 2019 when copper in the USA languished around U$2.50/lb,
untouched and unloved by the investment community that saw no trade and no reason to hold
onto any physical.

Comex copper stocks, 2019 to date
80000
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
19
91
naj
bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 02
naj
bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 12
naj
bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 22
naj
bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 32naj bef
mt Cu
source: Comex
Returning to our normal programming, the ratio chart shows that the amount of copper held at
SHFE is the highest it’s ever been compared to the other two. Therefore, when (not if) SHFE
stocks begin to deplete as the Chinese spring rolls out, the market may suddenly realize what
we’ve seen unfurling since Q4: No copper left to buy.
Copper inventories: percentage held per exchange
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
21.naJ ram yam luj pes von 31.naJ ram yam luj pes von 41.naj ram yam luj pes von 51.naj ram yam luj pes von 61.naj ram yam luj pes von 71.naj ram yam luj pes von 81
naj
ram yam luj pes von 91
naj
ram yam luj pes von 02
naj
ram yam luj pes von 12
naj
ram yam luj pes von 22
naj
ram yam luj pes von 32naj
LME Shanghai Comex source: Cochilco
See what I did there? Chinese spring rolls? Anyway, time to move from the monthly data to our
regular weekly update on world copper inventories:
 We had our second aggregate tonnage loss in as many weeks from the world’s three
official inventory systems, but this time the aggregate drop 6,818 of metric tonnes (mt)
makes a difference. The weekend total stands at 326,298mt.
 Datapoint of the week comes from SHFE, which lost 11,475mt and closed at
240,980mt. We go into this a little more with the SHFE dedicated charts, below.
 The LME added 6,775mt of copper and it was about time it saw some net inflows,
though cancelled cancelled warrants also rose by 7kmt which implies that new tonnage
won’t stay long. Friday’s closing number was 70,550mt. The difference was mad eby
11kmt landing in the LME South Korea warehouse.
 And another 2kmt+ drop at the Comex, this time 2,118mt to see its stocks close at
14,768mt and as noted above, the lowest level since 2014.
Our dedicated SHFE tracking charts, when taken together, make the case for how SHFE stocks
are now rolling over. The first chart shows a peak from in the 2023 spike that sees to have
topped out at 250k, give or take. That’s higher than the (disrupted) 2021 and 2022 tops, but a
long way from the 300k+ numbers that were normal in previous years.
Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2014 to date
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
31'13ceD dr32 ht51 ht7 ht03 dn22 ht71 ht9 ts1von ht42 ht71 ht01 dn2tcO 7102ts1naJ ht62 ht81 ht01 dr3ced ht52 102ht72rpa ht91 ht11 9102
dr3bef
102ht82rpa ts12 ht31 0202ht5naj 202ht92ram ts12 ht31 0202ht6ced ht82 dr32 ht51 ht7 202ht03naj ht42 ht71 ht9 3202
naJ
Mt Cu
|
source: Cochilco

The second chart is a clearer representation of the rollover. In the first weeks of 2023 the re-
stock was as sharp as the fastest in recent years, that of 2020 but the turndown has come
quickly, almost as early as last year, so if this is confirmed in the next few weeks we may see
stocks drop back under the 200k line rapidly and if that happens, expect alarm bells to ring in
trade publications.
SHFE copper inventory levels, 2018 to 2023
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
20
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
MT Cu 2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
source: Cochilco data
Now for some notes on a couple of basket component stocks:
Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.v): The Feb’23 newsletter from ASCU dropped into my inbox this
weekend (10) and saved me the job of checking on its progress with this little list, copypasted
directly:
The company's current cash balance of US$31 million, funds ASCU to deliver on key
catalysts this year. Major work programs, among others, include:
1) Drilling:
Infill to indicated drilling at P/S is on track to be completed this month
Exploration, including drilling at the NE extension and property-wide ionic leach
surveys have begun
In April, we will begin our infill to measured programs at P/S and Cactus
2) Metallurgical programs:
PFS-level 20 ft columns are ongoing onsite
DFS-level 30 ft columns will be constructed shortly
Nuton technology columns are ongoing with Rio Tinto
3) Permitting is ongoing and progressing extremely well
4) We remain on track to deliver our PFS by Q1 2024
All fair enough. I’d note the carefully chosen wording
on the current cash balance of U$31m and its ASCU.v: Cash treasury per qtr
funding requirements, because at current and
projected burn rate ASCU doesn’t have enough cash
to get it to the 1q24 PFS announcement. Here’s our
current house estimate of treasury, assuming no
further financings:
Therefore expect another round of equity raising in
2023, potentially in the classic financing window of
September/October (post-Labor Day). Apart from
that, no issues here and the combo of active copper
exploration in an attractive address is what the
market wants to hear at the moment. Gone is the post-financing price suppression noted last
week, ASCU is back with a 2-handle.
Faraday Copper (FDY.to): After taking one week off from its incessant climb, FDY came back
with a vengeance last week:
954.4 844.4
703.72
273.31
568.13
259.72
81
82
91
01
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 tse22q4 tse32q1 tse32q2 tse32q3
U$m
source: company filings

Good for them. They also announced (11) the “…Acquisition of Mercer Ranch at Copper Creek
Project in Arizona”, paying U$10m for the surface rights of owned by their neighbour ands
supportive shareholder, the Mercer family. This is smart, long-term planning and is the type of
detail that goes down very well with the size of company FDY would want to attract as an
eventual buyer/developer/operator of Copper Creek. From the NR comes the CEO comment on
the deal (plenty more details in the release, of course):
"The Mercer Ranch purchase is an important milestone at this early stage of advancing
the Copper Creek Project that provides numerous benefits. The Mercers are
supportive stakeholders and neighbours and will continue to operate the ranch for the
foreseeable future."
FDY is either near or at the very top of my “The Ones That Got Away” list for 2023 to date. I’ve
liked the company and what it’s been doing since the new team took over and it was a good
pick for the list this year to allow closer observation, they have the right corporate attitude and
the drillbit has produced consistently positive results. Certainly better than my positions in the
small copper trades QCCU and ALDE that haven’t lived up to expectations so far, but I’m not
going to beat myself up too much because the trades in ARG and are working and by taking
profit in WRN, I can re-deploy a modest winner as well. So yes, I’ve missed FDY on its ride up
but you can’t win them all. Wishing them every success and eventually may own some if the
right window of opportunity shows.
Libero Copper (LBC.v): Down last week, probably due to the newsflow out of Colombia. See
Regional Politics for that. Hard avoid.
Solaris Resources (SLS.to): SLS bounced back and returned to the 6-handle last week after
its wretched run, but the YTD chart (right) shows how much the stock has lost and how
Equinox/Beaty was selling into the January run before the decline began and volume dropped
away. That’s not a great-looking chart and with last week’s rebound on the lowest weekly
volume of the year, it’s tough to imagine SLS regaining those January highs without an uptick in
buyer interest.
21

All this aside from my own view on the company’s ESG issues. Those have been long-held and
were as true when SLS was a $15 stock this time last year as they are today.
The Producer Basket
After 9 weeks of 2023, the Producer Basket shows a loss of 0.94% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 47.20 799 35.72 44.70 -5.3%
2 Barrick GOLD 17.18 1761.54 29.10 16.52 -3.8%
3 Agnico Eagle AEM 51.99 488.9 23.33 47.72 -8.2%
4 Wheaton PM WPM 39.08 451.963 18.93 41.89 7.2%
5 Kinross Gold KGC 4.09 1256.1 4.71 3.75 -8.3%
6 Alamos Gold AGI 10.11 393.1 4.10 10.43 3.2%
7 B2Gold BTG 3.57 1074.567 3.85 3.58 0.3%
8 Hecla Mining GFI 5.56 603.86 3.35 5.54 -0.4%
9 Eldorado Gold EGO 8.36 185.73 1.83 9.86 17.9%
10 Wesdome Gold WDOFF 5.53 142.287 0.69 4.87 -11.9%
All prices and stock quotes in U$ Port. avg -0.94%
A good week and a sharp rebound for The Producer Basket, though the GDX’s upmove of
+6.1% was slightly better than our list and as such, we lost about half a point to the
benchmark. All ten of our component stocks were winners on the week, with the best in the
lower market cappers Hecla (HL up 11.2%) and Eldorado (EGO up 10.8%). As both of those
stocks returned improved Q1 financial results recently (see IKN718 and IKN719), the fundies
analyst in me dares to hope that rewards might be offered to the deserving in this current
market.
The 2023 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
comparative to GDX control
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
22
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM
The 2023 Producer Basket: Percentage difference
between GDX benchmark & basket (negative = IKN ahead)
4.0%
ikn 3.5%
gdx control 3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
source: NYSE, IKN calcs 0.0%
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM
source: IKN calcs, NYSE data

Newmont (NEM) and Newcrest (NCM): We got through BMO Miami and the NEM proposal
to buy NCM was one of the big topics (of course)
and come Wednesday, NCM shares caught up
from the dumpage seen the previous Friday. That
suggested at least some renewed hope that the
deal were on (and with the circus actors all in one
place, there was plenty of room for rumours) but
if we add GDX into the chart as we do, it’s difficult
to make a case for out-performance or market
anticipation for an agreement to be reached.
We’ve done a lot on the larger cap stocks in recent
editions and it’s a subject with no end; there’s
always something going on and our remit is on
smaller cap companies. I’m going to give myself a
break this weekend.
The TinyCaps List
After 9 weeks of 2023, the TinyCaps show a gain of 34.09% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Aurelius Min AUL.v 0.07 49.787 2.49 0.05 -28.6%
Coast Copper COCO.v 0.045 64.001 3.84 0.06 33.3%
District Metals DMX.v 0.075 86.891 16.07 0.185 146.7%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.13 69.962 16.09 0.23 76.9%
Manitou Gold MTU.v 0.02 344.568 15.51 0.045 125.0%
Nine Mile Metals NINE.cse 0.29 57.025 15.68 0.275 -5.2%
Palamina Corp PA.v 0.08 65.285 6.20 0.095 18.8%
Precipitate Gold PRG.v 0.075 130.367 8.47 0.065 -13.3%
South Star STS.v 0.55 32.755 16.38 0.50 -9.1%
Viva Gold VAU.v 0.14 91.608 12.37 0.135 -3.6%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 34.09%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $20m. They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a
little and allowed sub-U$20m market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, but it was a particularly depressing exercise to trawl through the whole of the TSXV and find companies
that are small enough, but with life in them. The vast majority of sub-$20m stocks are broken stocks, either
traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2023. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
The TinyCaps saw five of the ten basket stocks go down (AUL.v, COCO.v, LMS.v, NINE.cse,
VAU.v), one remain unchanged (PRG.v) and four go up
(DMX.v, MTU.v, PA.v, STS.v) but despite the unfavourable TinyCaps, 2023 weekly tracker
40%
head count, the basket average moved up sharply and 35%
30%
we’re now at new highs. That’s because two of the four
25%
winners were big ones, namely Manitou (MTU.v up 80.0%) 20%
on news it’s being bought out and District (DMX.v up 15%
10%
27.6%) on a suspiciously-timed promo pump offensive in 5%
the run-up to PDAC. Let’s check on those two stories. 0%
23
ts1naJ ht8naJ ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5bef ht21 ht91 ht62 ht5raM
source: IKN calcs, TSX data

Manitou Gold (MTU.v): Main TinyCap news of the week was from here, when bigboy
neighbour and long-term strategic partner of MTU, Alamos Gold (AGI) (AGI.to) announced its
friendly acquisition. Here’s the NR (12), here’s how it starts:
TORONTO, ONTARIO – FEBRUARY 28, 2023 –MANITOU GOLD INC. (TSX-V: MTU)
("Manitou") is pleased to announce that it has entered into a definitive arrangement
agreement (the "Agreement") dated February 28, 2023 pursuant to which Alamos Gold
Inc. (TSX: AGI, NYSE: AGI) (“Alamos”) will acquire all of the outstanding common
shares of Manitou ("Manitou Shares") not already owned by Alamos, by plan of
arrangement for deemed consideration of C$0.05 per Manitou Share (the
"Arrangement"), representing a total transaction value of approximately C$17.2 million
(including shares already owned by Alamos).
The consideration will be satisfied by the issuance of common shares of Alamos
("Alamos Shares") at a deemed price of C$14.18 per Alamos Share, which is based on
the 20-day volume weighted price of the Alamos Shares on the Toronto Stock
Exchange ("TSX") immediately preceding the execution of the Agreement. The
Arrangement is non-arm's length as Alamos currently owns 65,211,077 Manitou
Shares, representing approximately 19% of the issued and outstanding Manitou
Shares.
If we consider just one of many maps available of the main Goudreau property, we see how it
(yellow shading) backs on to the AGI (brown shading) concessions that host the company’s big
and highly successful Island Gold mine. We also know AGI has participated in many of the MTU
PPs over the years. We also know AGI stock has been on a tear recently, while MTU has
suffered through a slow decline.
There’s nothing too surprising, therefore, about the big company picking its spot and paying a
relatively small amount in pure paper for
concessions its CEO has liked and watched
carefully for many years. As for the buy price,
that makes sense on recent trading (right) and
FWIW, those of you interested in the arbitrage
can think about in reverse to see the value; a
purchase of MTU at 4.5c is the equivalent of
buying AGI at C$12.76, a price we haven’t seen
since December. It looks like there’s meat on this
bone for arbitrageurs at 4.5c: The deal will close
for sure, AGI is the epitome of good paper and if
you like AGI going forward, you are now exposed
to that upside above and beyond aside the half
cent you’ll gain on the deal by buying MTU
today. There are riskier trade set-ups than this one out there, that’s for sure.
District Metals (DMX.v): Interesting that the moment the DMX $3m placement closes, and
with zero escrow or trading restrictions on the newly-minted shares (13), this stock runs up and
over 20c on a strong promo pump.
24

This looks like a “PDAC Special” to me and good news and development from its Tomtebo
polymetallic or its earlier-stage uranium concessions or not, this isn’t one to chase at the
moment.
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future
I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
Colombia: The Vice-Minister of Mining is resigned
The Colombian mining sector had its own mini political scandal last week when the Vice-
Minister of Mines, Giovanni Franco Sepúlveda (last mentioned on these pages in IKN716 dated
February 5th) was “asked to resign” and did so when an official complaint against him came in
from a pro-Petro party group of Congress members. The chain of events began when the
organization opposed to the Mocoa mine project of Libero Copper (LBC.v), made a formal
complaint to Congress regarding the conflict of interests shown by Giovanni Franco, with a
specific mention of his role of professor at the Medellín School of Mining that last year signed a
financially beneficial agreement with Libero. The complaint also mentions the public favouritism
Franco has shown toward mining companies including Aris Miing (ARIS.to), Libero (LBC.v) and
Max Resources (MAX.v), positions that contravene his role as Vice-Minister (14).
The Congressional committee investigated the complaint and then sent a letter to the Ministry
of Mining which included this, among other juicy accusations:
“We the undersigned members of Congress manifest our concern for the close
relations and public support of Vice-Minister of Mines Giovanny Franco Sepúlveda with
multinationals such as Aris Mining, Max Resource Corp and Libero Cobre, as
expressed in several publications from his Twitter account.”
The Ministry of Energy and Mining replied with a weak defence of the Veep, at which point the
information went public and the affair became a political football. Within hours, Franco was out
and had been replaced by someone more to the cut of Minister Irene Vélez, one Johana Rocha
Gómez, an underling at the Ministry work on the new mining law project (set to be sent to
Congress in May). She is a lawyer and academia with a post-doctorate in Human Rights who
has defended communities in legal actions against mining companies and previous
governments. In welcoming the new Vice-Minister, Minister Irene Vélez stated that, “The
Ministry of Mining and Energy continues to work transparently for a fair energy transition, to
develop responsible mining, to support the private sector and along with communities, to find a
balance between the economic, the social and the environmental.”
With this, an ally of the mining sector has been unceremoniously removed from the government
and we again get a clear indication of the direction this Petro government will take once it has
unveiled its changes and proposals for the country’s mining law. And I still consider Aris Mining
to be a prime short candidate.
25

Peru: Protests starting to flare up again
We ran our Peru PDAC preview last week and, in general terms, the points made are still valid
this weekend as the country’s representatives get ready to put their best collective foot forward
on “Peru Day” at PDAC tomorrow (and all week). The situation for most mining companies is
better than it was a month ago, with supplies getting in and product getting out and while there
are still regions with roadblocks and mass protests, they are normally away from the places that
matter to the mining industry. However, there is one notable exception as the so-called “Mining
Corridor” that services several mines in the South of Peru is set for a new round of blockades,
according to news reports this weekend. That will affect two big mines as from tomorrow,
namely Antapaccay (Glencore) and Constancia (HudBay) as well as a few smaller mining
operations (that can often find other ways to ship out their product, what with having less
frequent trucking routes. The other big mine on the “Mining Corridor”, Las Bambas (Chinese
capitals MMG) would see a difference to its current situation in other circumstances but in fact
that mine last week reported that it continues to be blockaded and, while supplies and
personnel can get in (and out), the main delivery route for concentrate is cut and the mine
cannot send its product to port and market. So, it now gets a second line of blockades but that
won’t change its lot.
We now leave mining specifics to one side once again in order to make a brief comment on the
national political and social scene (and yes, trying to keep this as brief as possible). We
continue to see President Dina Boluarte trying to cement herself into the permanent role of
President and in quiet cahoots with a Congress also set on making it to 2026, but against that
we’ve seen a noticeable uptick in public opinion once again and the likelihood that headline-
making protests return to the streets of the capital, Lima, in the days to come. Congress has
not helped itself or its image with a series of small-scale scandals, that when lumped together,
provide ample evidence (if any were needed) of the self-serving nature of its members and this
has coincided with organized marches planned for Lima, with protesters being bussed in from
many outlaying provincial zones as I write these words on Saturday. As many of the key zones
in Lima have now been self-declared as protest march free by their local authorities, there’s the
potential for plenty of new clashes with the forces of order. At the same time, Peru is coming
under increasing international scrutiny for the way in which it is isolating itself at the diplomatic
level, we even had The United States “suggesting” that the country does indeed bring forward
elections instead of trying to ignore the public clamour. Finally, Congress last week tried and
failed to postpone a debate on early elections and will now have to go through another debate
on the subject that will most likely end with it again rejecting what the public wants (multiple
opinion polls show that between 70% and 73% of Peruvians want new elections for both
President and Congress).
The bottom line: Things have been quieter for a few weeks but look ready to get noisier again.
This time around there’s less likelihood of widespread roadblocks affecting all transport routes
(and therefore the mining industry), but the problems have not gone away and the “mining
corridor” in South Peru is likely to get hit and make headlines again, even though it’s only really
two mines, Antapaccay and Constancia, that will see a difference as Las Bambas has its exit
routes blocked already. Meanwhile, protesters seem to be going for the media headlines and
will try to stage marches in Lima as a main event. If, as I fear, the Boluarte government sees fit
to use heavy-handed police tactics against marchers we could see the blue touch-paper lit.
Ecuador: Lasso is running out of options
The presidency of Guillermo Lasso is supposed to run until 2025, but events of 2023 to date
have cast doubt that he will be able to complete his full term and the pressure increased further
last week. As always in politics, it’s a complicated story to tell in full and there are several lesser
angles that we won’t touch on today, but in essence Lasso is under the cosh on four fronts and
the latest developments affect mining directly:
 The recent elections for prefects (regional governors) and mayors, along with the eight
national referendum questions his posed to the nation. When the process began all eight
questioned were widely expected to be voted up, in reality they were all voted down and
26

with them, his strategy to govern by executive mandate and without needing to involve a
hostile Congress lay in shreds.
 Recent investigations into corruption cases that have hurt him in two ways. Firstly because
some close business associates of his are now under direct investigation (including his rich
and powerful brother-in-law in a messy tale involving an Albanian nacrotrafficking gang) but
also because his government at first tried everything to cover up the connections between
Lasso and those under scrutiny (as they say, it’s the cover-up that gets them and not the
scandal).
 Political and judicial moves by Congress to remove him from power. This is partially
connected to the unfolding corruption scandal, partially due to a “moral incapacity” to
govern and also connected to the way he tried and failed to circumvent Congress with his
eight referendum questions, which all failed to pass.
Those three are big things and a short note on each one does them little justice. We could also
include other political scandals, recent government ministerial resignations and an increasingly
hostile Congress in which even Lasso’s previous allies are turning against him. But we now
move to the mining issues and it’s right along the lines we predicted last year.
The indigenous groups that rose up and protested against the Lasso government last year for
18 days and brought the government to the negotiation table are now preparing to do the
same thing, with the main point of discord being Lasso’s attempts to move the mining sector
forward. We quote this report (15):
“…the Confederación de Nacionalidades Indígenas del Ecuador (Conaie) announced
that it would return to the streets after accusinf the President of breaking the
agreements made in negotiations regarding the right of prior consultancy to allow the
development of mining activities.
The leader of Conaie, Leonidas Iza, stated that in December 202 the government had
declared eleven mining projects as “zones of security and had militarized them, placing
the forces of public order “as private guards for trans-national companies and for the
operators of national investments.”
Iza also accused the government for the arrival of police and army at Fierro Urco* and
said, “We blame them for the violence. We are peaceful people (from) productive
terrains for the benefit of the big cities. They cannot come and impose like this,
breaking the right to prior, free and informed consultancy as guaranteed by the
Constitution as well as recognized by the Ecuadorian State at International level.”
*The Fierro Urco has refers to is the site of latest clashes between communities and police.
Locals have long opposed mining development in the region but the concession, as owned and
operated by Salazar Resources (SRZ.v), saw clashes last week as the government tried to
impose its will. In its press declarations, Conaie/Iza went on to declare “Maximum Alert” to
protect indigenous territories, water sources, productive agricultural zones and called for unity
from members treated incorrectly by mining companies that had not completed their prior
consultancy duties. “They are not armed guards, they are not fake security details, they are our
mechanisms of internal security that we have as a symbolic reference.” In other words, Iza
called for the locals to take over from any State security detail and stop mining companies from
their day-to-day activities if they do not have an agreement in place with the local communities.
As a matter of fact, one of the only companies with such an agreement is Lundin Gold (LUG.to)
at Fruta del Norte and most others have avoided trying to obtain their formal social license, as
they know locals will not agree. Iza closed his call to protest against miners in Ecuador by
saying, “The national government has sparked protests by violating the rights of people in these
territories. We will defend them, because we brought this issue to the negotiation table and
you, Guillermo Lasso, have ignored and broken this agreement process.”
Panama close to a deal with First Quantum (FM.to) on Panamá Cobre
We finished last week’s short note on the ongoing spat between First Quantum (FM.to) and the
government of Panama over the amount and type of State burdens to be paid by the mine with
the words, “…we’re likely to see a deal in the next couple of weeks before too much damage is
27

done.” That seems to be coming true, President Laurentino Cortizo of Panama referred to the
ongoing negotiation talks at a press conference on Friday evening, saying (translated), (16), "In
fact, I feel that we're already in the home straight to reach an agreement, but this agreement
must be beneficial for the Republic of Panama." He then answered a follow-up question with,
"There is only one outstanding point that needs agreement at this time and we hope to resolve
it as soon as possible."
All signals are for an agreement sooner, rather than later.
Chile: Boric set to re-shuffle his cabinet of ministers
We’re one year into his government and this weekend, there’s widespread talk that President
Boric is about to run a cabinet re-shuffle. It’s politics and therefore complicated and not really
part of our focus, but the issue gets a mention here because one of the main reasons for the
re-shuffle is widely assumed to be a further mocve toward the political centre and away from
the hard left party group that brought him into power. The re-shuffle is being called “a done
deal” by Chile’s deep politic media site La Politica Online (8) this weekend their sources,
apparently very close to the inner circle of government, “admit that there will be an adjustment
that answers the demands of democratic socialism.” That’s a long-winded and Chilean way of
saying that the Hard Socialist left (i.e. the Communist Party of Chile) gave political ground to
the centre-left “Concertation (alliance) Party” people in the first re-shuffle after the referendum
loss last September and the Left will cede more ground this time as well.
Once the re-shuffle is done and we know exactly who is out and in, expect an update. In the
meantime, all this augurs well for the continued free market credentials of Chile and its
improving relations with its own mining industry.
Market Watching
American Eagle (AE.v): A swing and a miss
We update on the note in IKN715 “Thoughts on American Eagle (AE.v)”, dated January 29th as
last week we finally got the drill assays from holes 005, 006 and 007 at its NAK deposit (17).
The AE price chart is the picture that paints a thousand words:
Indeed, it was a miss and particularly in hole 005, which stepped out further and cut
mineralization but didn’t hit anything close to economic grades at depth. We mentioned this on
the blog last week in this post (18) and to expand a little, while Hole 006 was encouraging (and
the company was keen to note it was some 180m off the plane of the other fenced drill holes),
the lack of grade in Hole 005 at the North end of the fence means the company is going to
have to drill in other places to find the theoretical tonnage at NAK. So with reasonable results
from 006 set slightly East of the discovery hole and best follow-ups, we should expect AE to
drill that area when the next stage of the exploration program begins.
Which brings us to another reason for the sharp downturn and sub-10c stock price this
weekend. AE is currently permitting the next round of drilling and that should get the green
light soon, but due to weather and logistics the drills won’t start turning until May. Given the
28

hole lengths and turnaround times at labs, we should therefore pencil in August-ish for the next
assay results and that implies around six months wait for the next results. We’re also likely to
see a funding round of equity placement at some point and while there won’t be a shortage of
willing backers, the shadow of a placement will weigh upon near-term price upside.
The bottom line: AE at NAK isn’t dead by any means, but it’s likely to move to the back burner
as a risk trade for a few months. Once the drills are turning and we approach the potential
assay results window it will be worth a closer look and as the geol team running the show is
clearly competent, they’re going to have learned from the first drill program and will have a
better idea of where to collar holes the next time. Also, they are likely to have more leeway
than just drilling a straight line fence and that means the opportunity to vector in to what may
turn out to be the sweet spot of the porphyry intrusion. It’s going to be worth keeping a
watching brief on AE at NAK, but my high risk bets will go to other places for a couple of
quarters.
Keeping an eye on COPJ
Another “watch not touch” segment. This weekend sees the first month of trading in the bag
for the four new ETFs launched by Sprott Asset Management this year, namely the Sprott
Energy Transition Materials ETF (SETM), the Sprott Lithium Miners ETF (LITP), the Sprott Junior
Uranium Miners ETF (URNJ) and the Sprott Junior Copper Miners ETF (COPJ). Of the four and
as noted at the launch date in this post on the open blog (19), I’m mostly interested in COPJ as
it has an interesting balance of junior-level copper components that would at a minimum make
a decent benchmark for our long-standing Copper Basket section (above) and, if things go well
for the vehicle, may even become an active trading alternative for the discerning copper sector
participant.
In order to gauge its performance over its first month of trading, here a chart pitting COPJ
against the main copper miners’ ETF, COPX:
As COPX contains plenty of big name and big cap companies, at least in theory you’d expect
COPJ to out-perform COPX if and when the copper market starts to pick up. However and so far
at least, there’s scant difference between the two lines. COPJ did do slightly better than COPX
last week, but not enough to draw attention and the volumes being traded by COPJ so far are
small, it’s only crossed the 10k volume line once in the last three weeks and a typical trading
day only sees between 2k and 5k changing hands. That’s not liquid enough for very-near-term
traders or those looking for leverage to any copper swing days, it’s certainly a long way behind
COPX with its 3-month trailing average of 472k/day and volume that rarely drops under
200k/day.
Bottom line: COPJ needs to run better volume to become a factor. However, if it does its
components may benefit from the exposure and some of those, being the juniors we know and
“love”, could make big moves as their floats vastly outweigh their average daily traded volume.
For the time being, COPJ gets a watching brief from this desk. I’ll leave you with the component
list of COPJ, with its top ten holding taking 49.76% of total weighting and plenty of interesting
stocks bubbling below. If COPJ starts to attract volume and the team adds the smaller holdings
29

when on the eventual re-balances, you could get some sharp moves from some of these stocks.
On the other hand, I bet they feel silly for taking a chunk of Northern Dynasty before that one
had its latest news. No ETF list is perfect.
Security Symbol Quantity Weight Market Value
ERO Copper Corp. ERO CN 8,860 7.23% $143,261.14
Ivanhoe Electric Inc. / US IE 7,620 5.53% $109,499.40
Capstone Copper Corp. CS CN 23,130 5.01% $99,335.47
China Gold Intl Res Corp. Ltd. 2099 HK 29,000 4.86% $96,312.96
Sandfire Resources Ltd. SFR AU 23,950 4.73% $93,618.37
Taseko Mines Ltd. TGB 56,580 4.65% $92,225.40
Filo Mining Corp. FIL CN 5,790 4.54% $89,952.93
MMG Ltd. 1208 HK 320,000 4.51% $89,345.59
Central Asia Metals PLC CAML LN 27,320 4.39% $86,964.41
Foran Mining Corp. FOM CN 32,940 4.31% $85,413.48
Hudbay Minerals Inc. HBM 14,190 3.55% $70,382.40
Copper Mountain Mining Corp. CMMC CN 41,560 3.51% $69,496.28
Aeris Resources Ltd. AIS AU 136,510 3.20% $63,480.61
iShares MSCI India ETF INDA 1,530 3.01% $59,654.70
Solaris Resources Inc. SLS CN 12,760 2.72% $53,859.89
Atalaya Mining PLC ATYM LN 11,050 2.46% $48,764.11
SolGold PLC SOLG LN 258,560 2.33% $46,077.90
Jinchuan Group Intl Res Co. Ltd. 2362 HK 550,000 2.16% $42,773.18
Western Copper & Gold Corp. WRN 26,060 2.00% $39,611.20
Copperstone Resources AB COPPB SS 272,810 1.91% $37,866.75
NGEx Minerals Ltd. NGEX CN 13,940 1.64% $32,552.34
Entree Resources Ltd. ETG CN 32,850 1.53% $30,248.62
29Metals Ltd. 29M AU 27,580 1.46% $28,903.62
Los Andes Copper Ltd. LA CN 2,530 1.18% $23,296.50
Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd. NAK 104,660 1.14% $22,501.90
Amerigo Resources Ltd. ARG CN 20,010 1.13% $22,405.30
Rex Minerals Ltd. RXM AU 107,740 1.04% $20,694.24
Arizona Sonoran Copper Co. Inc. ASCU CN 12,270 0.82% $16,269.61
AIC Mines Ltd. A1M AU 50,050 0.74% $14,673.07
Hot Chili Ltd. HCH AU 21,950 0.71% $14,053.54
Cornerstone Capital Res Inc. CGP CN 5,180 0.69% $13,698.86
PolyMet Mining Corp. PLM 5,810 0.68% $13,537.30
Trilogy Metals Inc. TMQ 23,980 0.66% $13,069.10
Austral Resources Australia Ltd. AR1 AU 77,060 0.64% $12,723.97
Wanguo Intl Mining Group Ltd. 3939 HK 40,000 0.54% $10,709.23
Cyprium Metals Ltd. CYM AU 140,520 0.53% $10,417.38
New World Resources Ltd. NWC AU 318,880 0.51% $10,100.73
Arc Minerals Ltd. ARCM LN 211,610 0.46% $9,185.35
Encounter Resources Ltd. ENR AU 64,860 0.30% $5,901.17
Sociedad Punta del Cobre SA PUCOBREC 700 0.20% $4,050.91
Cash Equivalent $134,418.32 6.79% $134,418.32
Equinox Gold (EQX) (EQX.to) redux
In last weekend’s Market Watching note “Equinox Gold (EQX) (EQX.to) 4q22 financials review”,
30

we ran the numbers on EQX and found it was doing better than I’d previously expected. Still a
high cash cost operator, it brings leverage to gold and PM stocks to the table and with a strong
treasury and apparent good progress at its Greenstone mine project, is in good shape to deliver
on its main growth project in 2024.
Again I’ll underscore that EQX is not my cup of tea and it’s not high on my shopping list, but
the benevolent market for gold names last week and the rebound in the gold price gave a
timely reminder of the trade potential of this stock. Here’s a chart:
We saw EQX dump into the previous Friday’s negative sentiment close, this week the stock out-
performed the market handily and rose by 13.1%. Or if you prefer, it would have been all-but
impossible to get in at the Monday open, but EQX still would have paid you 10.5% from
Tuesday to Friday’s close. Not bad so to repeat myself from IKN719 one last time, “…those of
you looking for the “leverage to gold” trade and with the required risk tolerance should at least
put this one on your radar. After all, with Beaty heading the company up, it’s never going to be
short of a trade paper headline or coverage note.”
Conclusion
IKN720 is done, we end with bullet points:
 A lot about copper this week.
 Taking a profit is never a bad thing, but the circumstances behind the sale of Western
(WRN.to) leave much to be desired. It would be nicd to get something over C$2.40,
though. As for SolGold (SOLG.to), the trade has been so on-point it’s a no brainer to
press the bet at this point, so purchase number three coming up.
 Very happy with the way Amerigo (ARG.to) is developing. Strong hold and core
position.
 Avoid Colombia and thank me later.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stock is Minera Alamos (MAI.v). Flash
updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best wishes, Mark
31

Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/03/schedule-for-week-of-march-5-2023.html
(2) https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-daly-tighter-policy-longer-time-likely-needed-2023-03-04/
(3) http://www.amerigoresources.com/
(4) http://www.amerigoresources.com/investors/earnings-calls/
(5) https://iknnews.com/news-from-eight-capital-on-abrasilver-abra-v/
(6) https://research.viiicapital.com/Reports/Research/2023/March/ABRA030123.pdf
(7) https://aldebaranresources.com/news-releases/2023/aldebaran-intercepts-1-167.50-m-of-0.48-cueq-including-418-
m-of-0.67-cueq-in-a-major-step-out-from-known-mineralization/
(8)
https://www.cochilco.cl/Listado%20Temtico/Observatorio%20de%20Costos%20(Presentacio%CC%81n)%20Febrero%
202023.pdf
(9) https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/china-feb-manufacturing-activity-expands-fastest-since-april-2012-official-pmi-
2023-03-01/
(10) https://mailchi.mp/d7056755faae/february-2022-newsletter?e=93d9283228
(11) https://faradaycopper.com/news-releases/faraday-copper-announces-acquisition-of-mercer-ran-4985/
(12) https://manitougold.com/news/news-releases/manitou-gold-announces-friendly-acquisition-by-alamos-gold-at-a-
100-premium-to-market
(13) https://districtmetals.com/news/district-metals-announces-closing-of-3-million-brokered-private-placement-financing
(14) https://www.valoraanalitik.com/2023/03/01/denuncian-conflicto-de-interes-entre-viceministro-de-minas-de-
colombia-y-mineras/
(15) https://www.lapoliticaonline.com/internacionales/los-indigenas-ecuatorianos-acusan-a-lasso-de-romper-los-
acuerdos-y-anticipan-nuevas-marchas/
(16) http://www.radiomiapanama.com/noticias/noticias-nacionales/44254-cortizo-dice-que-la-negociacion-con-la-minera-
canadiense-esta-en-la-recta-final.html?s=09#gsc.tab=0
(17) https://americaneaglegold.ca/news/american-eagle-confirms-continuity-of-copper-gold-mineralization-at-nak-with-
multiple-significant-intercepts-at-depth-and-near-1/
(18) https://iknnews.com/american-eagle-ae-v-and-why-its-worth-waiting/
(19) https://iknnews.com/thoughs-on-sprott-ass-mans-new-junior-copper-etf-copj/
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2022
Closed in 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
Goldshore Res GSHR.v Nov'22 C$0.18 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 88.9% Quick profit taken
Palamina Corp PA.v Dec'22 C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.08 -72.9% Clear-out of underperformer
Pure Gold PGM.h Dec'22 C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.015 -89.3% tiny trade on vh risk, went Ch11
32

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Set-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
33

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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