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The IKN Weekly
Week 717, February 12th 2023
Contents
This Week: In Today’s Edition, The stock market dances (until they stop the music).
Fundamental Analysis: AbraSilver Resource Corp (ABRA.v): Updating an underwater trade.
Stocks to Follow: Amerigo Resources (ARG.to), Aldebaran Resources (ALDE.v), Mene Inc
(MENE.v), Newcore Gold (NCAU.v), Chesapeake Gold (CKG.v), Western Copper & Gold
(WRN.to), QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v), Minera Alamos (MAI.v).
Copper Basket: Overview, Faraday Copper (FDY.to), Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.v), Regulus
Resources (REG.v), Solaris Resources (SLS.to).
Producer Basket: Overview, Newmont Corp (NEM), Kinross Gold (KGC), Wesdome (WDO.to)
(WDOFF).
TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Nine Metals (NINE.cse), Latin Metals (LMS.v).
Regional Politics: Ecuador: A major election reversal for Guillermo Lasso, Colombia: Zijin
threatening to close down Buriticá, Peru protest-watch, Argentina: The latest poll on the 2023
Presidential elections.
Market Watching: More on American Eagle (AE.v), Discovery Silver (DSV.to) files its 43-101.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
In Today’s Edition
 Another week to forget for the mining stocks, as a rising dollar and rising expectations
for a recession played against the metals complex and the miners. But no extended
intro today, just a heads-up on the CPI number to come and we move to the miners.
 Today we review our baghold position in AbraSilver (ABRA.v) and consider just why it
hasn’t rallied on the series of strong drill assay results in the last two months. It comes
down to two things, one of them is the way silver is trading.
 The bigger mining companies get column inches this week, as Newmont makes a move
on Newcrest and Kinross prepares to tell us what it has so far at Dixie.
 Meanwhile in the politics section, we raise another warning on the way Ecuador is
moving against the mining sector. This time the hit came from left field, as last
weekend’s referendum and regional governor votes went heavily and surprising against
President Lasso’s government. There’s also an update on the mess in Peru, but
Argentina looks better for the sector despite the run-up to a hotly contested
Presidential election now starting.
The stock market dances (until they stop the music)
The moving finger writes,
and having writ moves on.
Nor all thy piety nor all thy wit,
can cancel half a line of it.
From Fitzgerald’s translation of
Omar Khayyám’s Rubáiyát
Despite the increasing range of indicators pointing to a recession on the way in The USA and
1

joining the biggest canary in the coalmine, the deepening yield curve inversion (chart right) that
hasn’t failed to presage a recession in the world’s
biggest and most important economy, the US stock
market continues to ignore the drop and see the bright
side in all datasets.
 Labour market weak? The Fed’s strategy is
working! Buy the market
 Labour market strong? We’re such a resilient
economy! Buy the market
 Inflation high? It’s a supply bottleneck, demand
will drive recovery! Buy the market
 Inflation dropping? The Fed won’t raise any
further! Buy the market
Etc etc and next week, the moving finger will leave thoughts of that blow out jobs report
behind and focus squarely on inflation, with the US CPI reading due out Tuesday. Here’s the
tracking chart with the current consensus (1) added on the right:
US Consumer Price Inflation (CPI)
2
4.1 7.1
6.2
2.4 5
4.5 4.5 3.5 4.5 2.6 8.6 7 5.7 9.7
5.8 3.8 6.8 1.9 5.8 3.8 2.8
7.7 1.7 5.6
2.6
10
9
8
7
6
5
4 3
2
1
0
12'naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 22'naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes 22'tco von ced 32'naj
source: U.S. BLS
So the benchmark is set at 6.2%, we await the Dow’s positive reaction to the over and the
under. I’m going to go with Morgan Stanley Wealth Management CIO Lisa Shalett and her
comment last week, “The US equity market is fighting the Fed big time" (2) and leave the intro
section on the light side this weekend. It gets a little tedious to point out every weekend how
poor demand is for gold among Wall St’s great and good, so I’ll leave the next repeat until next
weekend.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
AbraSilver Resource Corp (ABRA.v): Updating an underwater trade
Today’s main fundies section is the note on AbraSilver Resource Corp (ABRA.v) I’ve been
promising and failing to deliver for
perhaps three weeks.
We begin with a bunch of charts, as
before getting to developments on the
corporate and exploration side we
need to set the scene and provide
required context. First up, the latest
iteration of the Gold/Silver Ratio
(GSR) with a little red ink applied
(right). As most of you are aware, this
desk is no fan of silver the metal as an
investment vehicle. Even if we stifle all
the market noise it generates and

eschew the silverbug shillers, along with the repeated chorus lines from those converted into
true believers by the snake oil spiel, there’s still not much left to enjoy in the silver space and as
an investment medium, it’s down the list on most commodity traders’ shopping lists. However,
its performance relative to gold is worth following as the Gold/Silver Ratio is a tried and tested
gauge to the relative health of the world economy. The relationship is simple and by removing
the US Dollar (or any other currency) from the equation, it’s possible to note the ebb and flow
of macro sentiment. We’ve run several analyses of silver’s supply and demand breakdown by
sub-sectors and that’s not today’s task. Instead we’ll keep to the most general of terms and say
that roughly half of silver produced is used in “industry”, and half goes to
“investment/jewellery.” As for gold, that’s dominated by investment/jewellery and its industrial
applications take up a very small part of the pie. As result, silver is more affected by the state
of the world economy, its demand reacts to changes in outlook faster than gold and as a
general rule, the GSR displays negative beta to silver in times of economic downturns (and
conversely, the ratio falls when the outlook is rosier).
Which brings us as quickly as possible to the above chart, tracking the last two years of the
GSR and the first thing to note is the 75X line, which these days is considered some sort of
benchmark by the metals world (or proponents of silver, at least). A GSR at this level and
U$1,900/oz gold would imply a silver price of U$25/oz and change (U$25.33) and we saw the
ration bounce around that level in late 2021, early 2022 and most recently at the end of last
year, when the world got happier and thought the worst of the US rate hikes were done. In
between those times (and we note the Russian invasion of Ukraine in passing), the moves by
the US Federal Reserve to hike base rates and reel in inflation saw the GSR move up as the
threat of recession grew and faded. Most recently the GSR has climbed again as the Fed moves
its narrative back to continued rate rises and the market begin to price in a real recession. And
before closing out this macro intro and moving to ABRA we stress that the GSR does not move
with reality. Instead its moves are driven by sentiment and indicates what the market perceives
and does so without the heavy influence of the US Dollar. Whether or not the GSR forecast
becomes reality is another question and that ends this preamble, added to illustrate the
somewhat fickle nature of silver as a baseline for your trade vehicle.
In my case, that means junior mining stocks and in a nutshell, it’s why I greatly prefer
companies in the gold space (or copper, if we include the industrials) over those in silver. With
that said and as mentioned when first tracking, then opening on ABRA last year, then returning
to the stock and re-opening coverage and buying for a second time in December, there have to
be exceptions to prove any rule and while the vast majority of silver explorecos, developers and
even producers are unattractive as investment alternatives. This was the attraction of ABRA in
2022, as seen in this 12 month chart comparing the stock’s performance to that of the main
silver miners’ ETF (SIL):
In the first half of 2022, ABRA traded largely in-line with peers, then came the fun parts and
the four numbers on the chart above have their notes here below:
1) Late July saw the first bonanza assay from the Tesoro zone of Diablillos, which shot the
3

stock higher. Then followed other similar strong assay results frm its Phase Two drill program
which kept the stock trading higher than SIL
2) The cut-off date for Phase Two drilling came on September 15th, but ABRA ploughed on
with Phase Three drillin almost immediately and we soon saw more strong results, including
promising first results from the new out-step JAC/Southwest zone at Diablillos (now JAC). Mpre
on this later.
3) On November 3rd, ABRA announced its new Mineral Resource Estimate (MRE) that was
billed as “over 215m oz AgEq” but is better understood by this table from the 43-101:
The best line to focus upon is the penultimate, which shows the total Measured and Indicated
(M+I) resource in oxides and transition zones. The 51.3mt of 66g/t silver and 0.79 g/t gold
gives a metal count of 109.37m oz silver and 1.297m oz gold at a 35g/t AgEq cut-off in a
conceptual Whittle pit at U$25/oz Ag and U$1,750/oz Au (i.e. 70/1), as well as 73.5%
recoveries for the silver and 86% for gold. That’s a whole string of numbers, what matters here
is that there’s already a big mine to build on top of this deposit (and if you look at the 43-101,
the resource holds together nicely at higher cut-offs and implies good margins if costs rise).
Also FWIW, at this stage of development the dollar amounts used for a Whittle open pit shell
are less important than the ratios and if you do the math, at this stage in the development of
Diablillos there’s more dollars coming from the contained gold than the contained silver at the
current GSR.
So far, we’ve witnessed how ABRA delivered crowd-pleasing news all through the second half of
2022: Its results from the main Oculto zone (including the deeper Tesoro target) at Diablillos
had the market applauding, its Phase Three drill results took over and kept the ratings positive
and the share price out-performing, then the eventual MRE that included the Phase Two results
(but not Phase Three, they will be part of the next MRE this year) also met with suitable
approval and ABRA held its gains all through November. So what happened? Why did ABRA
revert from its market out-performance status on the back of strong and ongoing drill results
and a positive MRE report, suddenly becoming and under-performer that gets sold down by the
market on any given opportunity?
4) A financing, that’s what happened. The bought deal financing announced on November
29th, the day after its 3q22 financials, with Eight
Capital that closed one week later and
eventually raided C$10m in gross proceeds by
selling 27.027m units (unit = share + ½
warrant at a 50c strike), has turned out to be
kryptonite to ABRA’s previous Superman price
performance. The arrow marks the spot in the
above price chart, the sudden a persistent
deterioration in performance since then
becomes even more obvious in this three
month comparative chart, right (against SIL and
4

GDXJ to show there’s no bias).
That the break in performance began on the day of the financing announcement and that’s not
unusual, but under normal circumstances and in a “healthy” round of financing, that effect
would revert once the deal were closed. Not so here, as the breach has only grown and while
it’s never easy to pinpoint the exact reason for the consistent way in which ABRA’s stock price
has been hammered since then, there are a few ingredients to consider:
1) There was no hold or escrow period on the bought deal shares, which meant the new
holders could start clipping the warrants (i.e. selling the shares and holding the
warrants as a de facto long-dated call option) immediately.
2) Eight Capital does not have a shining reputation as a transparent market participant
(and that’s putting it as diplomatically as possible, I’d use different phraseology on the
blog). They may well have done their sums and realized there was a lucrative shorting
opportunity and the likelihood of controlling the share price from this $10m cash
injection.
3) A little over 38m in warrants are due to mature soon, with 21.45m warrants at a 27c
strike on April 26th (worth C$5.79m) and 16.78m warrants at 15c on May 14th (worth
C$2.52m). That’s $8m of funds that would come in very handy at ABVRA,. But the
action suggests the warrant holders may Theoretically at least, the current 30c and 33c
prices of ABRA make a profitable trade for those holders (who may also be encouraged
to make the trade by their brokers).
4) We should also note that big holder Eric Sprott (12% of shares out) last year somewhat
surprisingly on two occasions in July and September decided not to exercise two large
swathes of deeply in-the-money warrants that would have totalled over 44m in cheap
shares compared to the market price.
I want to underscore that I don’t have the definitive answer to this puzzle. It’s also too easy to
play the 20/20 hindsight/Monday Morning QB card and bemoan the current situation at ABRA at
market, that’s not the point of today’s report on the stock. What I do know is that ABRA has
been playing the Canadian paper game with large players and brokerages and with over 522m
shares out and an average volume of around 700k shares per day, seems to have opened itself
up to market price manipulation methods. I’m choosing my words carefully, because on the one
hand I’m certainly not one of those market mouths who blames their bad results on The Dirty
Horrible Unfair Shorters, but on the other hand I’m not naïve about the reality of Canadian
capital markets and stocks such as ABRA are sometimes subject to purely paper-based market
moves. The set-up looks right (or wrong, if you’re a retail holder such as I) in this case and
what’s more, we can also apply “By their fruits shall ye know them” to the current period. For
that, we switch gears:
Recent assays ignored by the market
It’s one thing to watch ABRA being beaten down by the market post-financing, quite another
when we consider that since December 6th the company has continued to deliver excellent drill
results and assays from its main Diablillos project. Specifically, the company has worked out the
controls and geology at its new Southwest/JAC extension zone, currently separate and located
to the Southwest (duh) of the 43-101 resource at Oculto and the chronological sequence of drill
assays from the target in the last few weeks are worthy of consideration:
Here we offer the title lines of the last four assay NRs from ABRA starting with this:
 December 15, 2022 (3): AbraSilver Reports Multiple Wide Silver Drill
Intercepts, Including 103 Metres Grading 139 g/t Silver Near-Surface in New
Southwest Zone at Diablillos
That was a good start at the project and after the Christmas break we got the second bulletin:
o January 10, 2023 (4):AbraSilver Intersects New High-Grade Feeder
Structure in Southwest Zone at Diablillos; 871 g/t AgEq over 27m,
and 522 g/t AgEq over 36m
5

This second NR marks the moment when ABRA started hitting the higher grading material at
depth and notably, mostly in oxide or transition material that can be easily added to the current
resource (Oculto only), it also marks the transition moment when “Southwest Zone” was
dropped and “JAC” became the official name for this zone. Then a week later, this headline;
o January 17, 2023 (5): AbraSilver Intersects Highest Grade Silver
Intercept of All-Time at Diablillos: 12,581 g/t Silver and 44.5 g/t Gold
(16,225 g/t AgEq) over 1 Metre. Record-Grade Intercept Located at
New JAC Target, Part of Broader Intercept of 2,498 g/t AgEq over
8.5m
Another four holes reported, one hitting surface silver, one slightly disappointing and two
barnstormer holes with surface mineralization and then broad intercepts of high grade silver,
with some gold, at depth. JAC is now beginning to shape up as a real deal resource along strike
from Oculto, which was franked by the most recent NR out last Monday:
o February 6, 2023 (6): AbraSilver Continues to Drill Wide Silver
Intercepts at New JAC Zone. Hole DDH 22-082 Returned 347 g/t
AgEq over 26.5 m, including 1,055 g/t AgEq over 7.0 m
Again, we’re running the title line only and there’s more to see in the NR body such as hole 79
hitting 35m of 199.2 g/t Ag and hole 81 hitting 37m of 179.3 g/t Ag. This plan from the latest
NR shows the location of the reported holes at JAC, the stars being those reported on the day.
To date ABRA has reported 30 of the 43 holes drilled during this Phase Three program and
those pending are at the lab, so we should get two or three more NRs in the near future.
The plan shows how the new JAC zone is located on strike to the main Oculto zone and its 43-
101 compliant resource dated 4q22. We’ve run this next shot before (it’s from the January 2023
corporate presentation available here (7)) but as it does a good job of visualizing in quasi 3D
how the two zones fit together, you see it again.
6

This side-on view shows how any resource added at JAC (right) is going to fit well into a revised
and expanded open pit plan at Diablillos. That’s probably running before we can walk, however,
as ABRA first has to report the final 13 holes of this Phase Three campaign, then it plans to put
together a maiden resource on JAC only. From there the mine plan and eventual mine
economics and ABRA will then face a choice of running with the current plan of a PFS on the
Oculto zone or pushing back the PFS and incorporating JAC into the economic plan (likely the
former).
Summing up this part, even after reporting strong results at the new JAC deposit that’s bound
to add significant ounces to the current 43-101 count (and mostly in silver, the gold kicker is
lower in this area) and on the pathway to a PFS on its M+I resource at Oculto (109m oz Ag and
roughly double that in AgEq), ABRA’s share price hasn’t merely languished but has sold off due
to what we presume as market fun and game. This is the long-winded version of the same
point we made in IKN713 when last considering the way ABRA was trading and since then, it’s
only got worse.
The solution is also the same as IKN713, “Don’t get mad, get even.” The effect of market
suppression can of course be boring and test one’s patience, but this is where the patient value
investor makes their real money. Today isn’t a re-hash of the cash flow model we ran on an
eventual operation at Diablillo as per our original coverage in IKN707, dated December 4th (mail
me if you’d like a copy, anyone new round here) as that will stand well enough until we know
more in the upcoming PFS. Instead let’s consider some more basic numbers and run a few best
guesses on what ABRA at Diablillos will look like in a few months’ time. We assume:
 The current M+I resource at Oculto of 215m oz. If the kicker were zinc or lead I’d be less
inclined, but as the only other payable is gold, it comes at very good grades for an oxide
deposit (we remind readers, 0.79 g/t is the type of grade that can support an open pit mine
without any silver) and it covers half of the likely revenues from an eventual mine at current
prices, I’m fine with AgEq for the moment.
 25m oz AgEq added to the Diablillos resource by JAC in 2023. At this time it’s in the lap of
the Geology Gods, but that should be reachable on a first pass MRE this year.
 563.5m shares out as at end 3q23, with treasury at approx C$15m as at end 2q23. This
assumes the full take up of the 38.23m in April and May warrant exercises and at this
weekend’s C$0.31 share price gives an implied market cap of C$174.7m (U$134m approx).
We note the treasury position as it implies ABEA can continue on its current work program
and budget and get deep into 2024 if required.
These are all best guesses, but please note we are giving zero credit and value to the Oculto
inferred resource, they also get nothing from us for the second string La Coipita copper project
and we assign zero value per share for its good treasury position. This rough and ready
calculation is to show the implied in-situ value for discovered ounces of C$0.73/oz.
7

ABRA.v: Cash treasury per qtr
26
24
22
20
18
16
14 12 10 8
6
4
2
0
And that is way too cheap. Even at a low end of respectable C$2/oz in-situ on the day of any
deal, ABRA would be worth C$0.85, which coincidentally (or otherwise) tallies fairly closely with
our previous cash flow model valuation of C$0.75 at our baseline U$22/oz silver deck (IKN707).
In fact it’s not a coincidence, as this is the type of realistic value target one can assign to a
quality development project at this stage.
Discussion and Conclusion: 20/20 hindsight and all that, but the evidence is now strong that
AbraSilver (ABRA.v) opened the door to the type of market player that makes a living from
suppressing stock prices. Its large float, relatively low daily turnover and need to finance all
play into the strategy and while it’s somewhat annoying to see this happen to a chosen stock,
it’s hardly the end of the world because these phases invariably come to an end. In IKN713 the
call was to get even instead of angry, that’s as true today because the value equations stand up
to close scrutiny, as do ABRA’s actions in 2023 to date as they open up and delineate the new
JAC zone, destined to add ounces to Diablillos as well as its potential to help with mine planning
and eventual lower strip and operating costs per ounce. The current resource of 215m oz AgEq
will grow but even if ABRA only takes Oculto to PFA stage this year, its economics are going to
be robust as the current cut-off of 0.35 g/t AgEq, considered next to a resource of 0.66 g/t Ag
AND 0.79 g/t Au, implies a very robust operating margin of any eventual mine. All without the
potential upside of JAC and even the wild card Coipita copper project, at which ABRA is also
drilling this year in order to see what they have.
Silver will never be a favoured metal on these pages, but I am first and foremost a value
investor and, as long as the company is serious, the location is acceptable and the project
shows quality and upside, I’ll go where the math takes me. ABRA continues to check the boxes
as a highly undervalued stock price with an under-appreciated precious metals project in the
right part of the world. It’s easy enough to criticize the recent placement but the upside is clear,
treasury at an IKN estimated C$18m as at end 2023 is in good shape and assuming those
warrants are exercised in Q2, the company will have more than enough money to continue
deep into 2024. We may be in for a few more weeks of price suppression but, once those
warrants are decided one way or another, it’s a natural moment to see the selling pressure
dissipate and it would also give enough time for the $10m in share units from the December
placement to find stronger hands.
However and ultimately, ABRA is a
silver exploreco and its most powerful
price influence will be the market for
silver the metal. Therefore, we end
with this sight (right) and the point
made at the top of today’s note is the
point made at the bottom: I prefer gold
trades to silver trades, holding gold
bullion to silver bullion, owning gold
mining companies over silver mining
8
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 tse22q4 tse32q1 tse32q2
source: company filings
srallod
fo snoillim
ABRA.v: Shares Out
67.942 67.942 67.472 004 82.904 80.724 87.154 47.854 20.574 33.084 53.784 22.594 172.525 172.525 5.365 5.365
600
550
500
450
400
350
300 250 200
150
100
50
0
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 tse22q4 tse32q1 tse32q2 tse32q3
source: company filings
serahs
fo snoillim

companies. AbraSilver (ABRA.v) offers me the opportunity to extend risk on my portfolio and
add risk compared to other positions and I treat it accordingly, as a risk/reward trade. But no
matter how much intrinsic value I believe to be locked up in ABRA today, its share price will not
come alive until silver-the-metal shows the type of bullish move that its true believer fans
constantly promise to their audiences. They may eventually be right (for the wrong or right
reasons) and that would be fine by me as I’d make money, but I will certainly limit my exposure
to the high quality end of the sub-sector. Be it under artificial market suppression or not, ABRA
fits that bill and I’ll happily hold through on this trade but those of you with more conviction
about silver and its future should put this company at the top of your shopping list.
Stocks to Follow
Just one winner last week, so a cheer for Aldebaran (ALDE.v) but even then it was lucky to
return a gain. Three other stocks were unchanged (RIO.v, ORX.v, MENE.v) and that means
losers, though the actual hits taken by most of the stocks was minimal or inside recent trading
ranges, with no double figure losers on the list. It was a negative week, but it didn’t hurt that
much and sat next to some of the losses we saw in the junior and exploreco world, the portfolio
got off lightly.
We have 15 stocks on the table, 12 of them personally owned, and that’s five below our self-
imposed maximum. Six are in the green (including most of the larger sized treades, nine are in
the red (because small risk trades are small risk trades).
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.39 85.7% $0.75 first tgt, #1 idea
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Amerigo Res ARG.to STR BUY C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.41 3.7% Main Cu trade, top fundies
Western Copper WRN.to BUY C$2.02 13-Nov-22 C$2.13 5.4% M&A potential in FY23
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v HOLD C$0.275 25-Apr-21 C$0.145 -47.3% MRE now due 2q23, annoying
Newcore Gold NCAU.v BUY C$0.21 23-Oct-22 C$0.24 14.3% Cheap now, MRE any moment
AbraSilver Res. ABRA.v STR BUY C$0.37 4-Dec-22 C$0.31 -16.2% Added end Jan, v cheap
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v HOLD C$0.83 22-Apr-18 C$0.215 -74.1% Cheap on permit probs, appeal
SPECULATIVE TRADES
Orefinders ORX.v.v SPEC BUY C$0.04 23-Oct-22 C$0.045 12.5% build position at 4c
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v SPEC BUY C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$2.03 -33.9% Au leverage, small trade so far
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v BUY C$0.72 16-May-21 C$0.95 31.9% drill assays from March'23
Minera IRL MIRL.cse avoid C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.055 -71.8% run into ground by CEO,AVOID
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
ATAC Res ATC.v WATCH C$0.095 11-Sep-22 C$0.065 -31.6% Cheap Yukon neighbour play
Contango Ore CTGO WATCH U$23.25 2-Dec-22 U$23.2375 -0.1% watching for financinf package
Anacortes Mining XYZ.v WATCH C$0.49 22-Jul-22 C$0.39 -20.4% may drop from watchlist
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.65 6-Dec-20 C$0.38 -41.5% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2023 date closed close price
Altiplano Metals APN.v jan'23 C$0.31 17-Sep-21 C$0.17 -45.2% delayed and will dilute soon
2015 to 2022 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on some of the covered companies:
9

Amerigo Resources (ARG.to): Down 6c to $1.41 during a week that did no favours for
copper stocks (see The Copper Basket, below) ARG traded lightly and wouldn’t have caught
anyone’s attention among flippers or players. As ARG the company is prohibited from using its
NCIB buyback facility until February 23rd, i.e. the day after it reports its YE financials, this may
be the time to pick up shares while there’s less competition on the open market.
Aldebaran Resources (ALDE.v): One cheer for our only winner but mind you, ALDE only
managed to get away with that because it traded less than 24,000 shares over the entire week,
including 2,200 on Thursday to mark the 95c close and fat zero on Friday.
Mene Inc (MENE.v): Not directly related to MENE.v, but if you have nearly two hours to spare
I thoroughly recommend you check out Jordan Peterson podcast/YouTube interview with MENE
(and Goldmoney) founder/main man Roy Sebag, on this link (8). The Youtube already has over
235,000 views (dateline Saturday PM) and its main topic is a discussion of Sebag’s new book,
“The Natural Order of Money.”
Newcore Gold (NCAU.v): The wait for the elusive MRE and resource update goes on, though
to be fair NCAU could have delivered an excellent number and been widely ignored in the poor
sentiment for gold juniors we saw last week. I can only assume we get the news before PDAC.
Chesapeake Gold (CKG.v): We got an hour-long webinar from Alan Pangbourne of CKG last
week, which went into detail on the 2023 work plan and the expected timing for catalysts. In
fact the webinar presentation was less than half the show and contained the important
information, as most of the questions from the audience that followed hashed over subjects and
issues that wouldn’t have been new news to longer-term shareholders, so if you have around
20 minutes to spare this link (9) is worth your time. If not, my three major takeaways are:
 The resource update should be with us this quarter and, by all sounds of things, before PDAC.
CEO Pangbourne mentioned that the company had been invited to present at the BMO
Conference and said he also expected the resource to be ready by then. As that’s the
traditional curtain-up show in Miami before PDAC, let’s pencil in two weeks for the news.
 Pangbourne is crystal clear that this story is all about metallurgy, which is good and that will
be the thrust of development this year. No drilling is planned, so corporate burn will be kept
low. CKG is running various column leach tests continue as they look to optimize recoveries
and results and we’re bound to get more on this key subject as the year rolls out, including
anything shown at upcoming presentations or the 43-101 resource report. In the most general
terms, Pangbourne is looking to get recoveries up from the current 60% to the 70% or so
they put in the original PEA of 2021 (though he did stress that even at 60% recoveries,
“Metates works” as an economically robust project).
 The updated PEA is now slated for the end of this year. As CKG has a poor track record for
keeping to dates, I’m now assuming we don’t get that updated economic report until early
2024. Once again, the eventual timing and contents of this document will depend greatly on
met testing results and I’m sure CKG will want to make sure it has enough info at hand before
putting it all into an official document.
During one part of the Q&A he tried to make a case for the mine being in operation under
current owners by 2027, which sounds “highly optimized” to this desk. However, CKG continues
with a strong cash position (Pangbourne seemed to let slip that the company still had around
C$30m treasury as at December 31st, more than enough for 2023 and likely 2024). Please
recall, we’re here above all for the leverage to gold that CKG provides, it has a lot of ounces for
its small market cap and if gold does shoot higher, that’s the trade (and we can scale in if
things get busy). Personally speaking, even though I bought twice and badly (should have
waited), this is still a small position and one I can afford to be patient with. That said, if I’d
known back in mid and late 2021 that CKG would roundly fail to keep to its timeline and fail to
deliver meaningful met results by the midpoint of last year, it would have been easy to pass at
the time and wait on the outside (perhaps with CKG now in the “Watch List” category).
However, those with the patience and market eye to be able to buy/add when CKG makes its
10

occasional dips under $2 could build a nice little position this year if they so desired and then, if
gold does make some sort of rocket move, the multi-multi-million ounce Metates becomes a
real option as a leverage trade.
Western Copper & Gold (WRN.to): It wasn’t a great week for copper junior stocks, but the
9.4% lost by WRN was larger than most and came on top of the 10c loss of the week before.
As such, WRN has dropped from C$2.45 to C$2.13 in the space of two trading weeks and that’s
annoying, though understandable considering the combo of a management team that’s
seemingly down to one strategy line, “Sell the thing”, plus suitors in no hurry to buy.
 We know Paul West-Sells and company don’t have much left to say or do when their
idea of a NR is to report on a report that outlines the economic benefit Casino will have
on its region.
 We know Rio Tinto (RTZ) is interested, because they’ve been calling the exploration
shots and have recently extended their quasi-JV deal with WRN that allows them to
make a lot of the calls about company strategy this year.
 We know NEM is the obvious “other buyer” thanks to Coffee next door.
However, with NEM apparently trying to fry bigger fish than WRN and going for a U$17Bn
merger deal with Newcrest (see below), there’s no reason to imagine it has this relatively small
sized deal high on the board’s agenda at the moment. So while we pointed to the lack of
apparent competitive tension around Casino a few weeks ago, that became glaringly obvious to
a market that may have been entertaining some flights of fancy about NEM in the Canadian
Yukon up until last Monday morning. We need to be clear, the company is at the behest of Rio
Tinto and with that company likely to use up all of its extra year of observation from within
WRN before making any sort of decision, holders of WRN have to keep eyes on the big prize
and either be here for the eventual buyout games, or move to somewhere else that can provide
more market momentum. I am a relaxed holder of this stock, it ticks enough of my value
investor boxes to make it a good trade in present circumstances and if it goes through a slack
period due to market perception and/or temporary copper price weakness, then so be it.
QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v): While asking Ore Group head honcho about American Eagle
(AE.v) late last week (see Market Watching below), we touched on QCCU and he said that the
company is experiencing some of the same issues faced by AE and plenty of other companies
with exploration projects, i.e. assay lab delays. In this case, QCCU has just last week finished
the last part of its current drill program this week and now has around 10,000m boxed and
waiting for assay results. CEO Stewart cannot put an exact date on things due to the
inconsistencies of the third party labs (he’s hardly alone with the issue), but expects results to
flow “PDAC-ish” (quote/unquote). For me, that means he’ll have enough of the 10km to put out
at least one nicely time PDAC Special NR with respectable numbers.
Minera Alamos (MAI.v): Thanks for the feedback on last weekend’s main note, appreciated
all of you who took the time and it was good to hear your views as well as be able to respond
to a couple of details. From the multiple mentions, one thing that clearly went down well was
the fact that MAI has some sort of “Plan B” for water at Santana, though I’d stress that in the
great scheme of things Santana’s temporary water blip isn’t a reason to make or break the
company. As for trading, MAI still managed to return a week-over-week loss, but at half a cent
and with active buyers present* MAI traded reasonably well all week without ever seriously
threatening to re-take a 4-handle.
*Including President Doug Ramshaw, who continues to add to his holdings on the open market and now owns over 8m
shares.
The Copper Basket
After six weeks of 2023, The Copper Basket shows a gain of 1.53% to level stakes:
11

company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Solaris Res SLS.to 6.44 114.56 704.54 6.15 -4.5%
2 Western Copper WRN.to 2.41 151.597 322.90 2.13 -11.6%
3 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.22 88.028 294.89 3.35 4.0%
4 Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to 1.92 105.96 200.26 1.89 -1.6%
5 Oroco Res OCO.v 0.91 207.034 163.56 0.79 -13.2%
6 Faraday Copper FDY.to 0.54 166.137 137.89 0.83 53.7%
7 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.78 138.579 131.65 0.95 21.8%
8 Regulus Res. REG.v 1.10 124.51 102.10 0.82 -25.5%
9 Hot Chili HCH.v 0.78 119.455 100.34 0.84 7.7%
10 Pan Global Res PGZ.v 0.46 212.145 91.22 0.43 -6.5%
11 Kodiak Copper KDK.v 1.12 55.6 51.15 0.92 -17.9%
12 QC Copper QCCU.v 0.165 150.736 21.86 0.145 -12.1%
13 Libero Copper LBC.v 0.155 90.669 15.87 0.175 12.9%
14 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.16 86.966 14.35 0.165 3.1%
15 Atacama Copper ACOP.v 0.16 34.373 6.19 0.18 12.5%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg 1.53%
We’re doing this week’s Copper Basket intro back-to-front, starting with a copper price chart
and a comment or three because the evidence of metals leading the miners may be on shows
in the PM sector, but Dr. Copper has overwhelming evidence.
Between IKN715 (Jan 29th) and IKN716 (Feb 5th), the high traded Comex futures contract
HGH23 dropped from U$4.20/lb to U$4.04/lb, with the losses accelerating into last weekend.
There was plenty of fear on how copper would open this time last weekend but we weren’t
worried, as the metals complex looked oversold.
Sure enough, last week saw a different market as 10% The Copper Basket 2023, weekly evolution
copper flattened out, bounced in a tight range 9%
8%
between U$4.00/lb and U$4.10/lb and closed just
7%
3c down on the week and inside range. Despite 6%
this, our junior copper sector waited until last 5%
4%
week to show its weakness and as a result, our
3%
basket average sold off by nearly 3% to close at 2%
1.53%. 1%
0%
Jan1st Jan8th 15th 22nd 29th feb5th 12th
We saw just three of our 15 component stocks
source: IKN calcs
make gains on the week (ALDE.v, FDY.to, KDK.v)
and one left unchanged (OCO.v), which means 11 losers on the week and a complex that was
pulled down by constant selling. Plenty of stocks lost around 5% or 6%, with the biggest losers
Solaris Resources (SLS.to down 11.3%) and Western Copper (WRN.to down 9.4%) which also
happen to be the biggest market cappers on out list. That’s money trying to get out of the sub-
12

sector and that’s okay, the money to follow in 2023 is in the metal.
Moving to macro news, ChinaFears! once again dominated with the market fixated on a drop in
factory gate prices and a world of anal yst desks that seem to be competing against themselves
to call each quarter perfectly. This is a typical quote (10):
"The market jumped the gun," said Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen.
Chinese demand may not revive until the second quarter, raising the risk of a short-
term price decline, he said, adding that he was bullish in the longer term.
How cute, it seems we’re supposed to trade the channel on his considered daily changes in
opinion. Meanwhile in China macro news that matters, new loans in China moved form 1.4Bn
Yuan in December to 4.9Bn Yuan in January, that’s a big number that reflects the post-Covid
opening. We also saw Fitch Ratings raise its 2023 GDP forecast for China from 4.1% to 5.0%.
according to Fitch, Chinese consumers will lead the revival and its internal economy is robust.
Away from China and in other news, we dial up Reuters (11) to learn that 42% of all metals
held by LME in its warehouses is currently sourced in Russia. It’s even more impressive when
we get to copper, because “…as of Jan. 31…copper was 94% at 54,950 tonnes.” As we know
(see below) that nearly all LME’s current copper inventory is held by its warehouses in Germany
and Holland, the route is also clear and gives lie to the image of Western Europe refusing to do
business with Putin’s regime. Indeed, LME also claims that there’s no apparent boycott of
Russian produced metals:
“The LME’s conclusion (based on market feedback) that Russian metal continues to be
consumed is supported by data on the outflow of Russian metal from LME
warehouses,” it said.
We move to the regular weekly update on the world copper inventories, with data from
Cochilco:
 Net inflows of copper continued last week, but not as strongly overall as the previous
two since China came back from its vacation. The aggregate of copper inventories in
world’s three official systems rose by 7,306 metric tonnes (mt) to close Friday at
327,845mt and once again, the major stocking happened in Shanghai.
 At the SHFE, inventories added 15,500mt to close at 242,009mt. That’s strill in the right
direction but it’s a slowdown from the fast tack we’ve seen in the two previous weeks.
 Meanwhile at the LME, the drawdowns continued and stocks jeer are now alarmingly
low (and nearly all from Russia). Inventories closed Friday down 6,900mt at 63,100mt
and near-historic lows for the main market for price discovery of copper. We live in
strange times.
 For a third week running, Comex stocks took another relatively large hit compared to its
absolute size and importance, hinting again of strong demand in North America. Stocks
dropped by 1,394mt to close at 22,736mt.
The long-term dedicated SHFE tracking charts show how the annual re-stock continued last
week, but the move higher slowed somewhat.
Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2014 to date
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
13
31'13ceD dr32 ht51 ht7 ht03 dn22 ht71 ht9 ts1von ht42 ht71 ht01 dn2tcO 7102ts1naJ ht62 ht81 ht01 dr3ced ht52 102ht72rpa ht91 ht11 9102
dr3bef
102ht82rpa ts12 ht31 0202ht5naj 202ht92ram ts12 ht31 0202ht6ced ht82 dr32 ht51 ht7 202ht03naj ht42 ht71 ht9 3202
naJ
Mt Cu
|
source: Cochilco

SHFE copper inventory levels, 2018 to 2023
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
14
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
MT Cu 2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
source: Cochilco data
Now for a few notes on some basket component stocks:
Faraday Copper (FDY.to): This time last week we were applauding FDY for the way it’s hit
the ground running in 2023 and had topped off its momentum with a valuable placement. On
Monday FDY added to the gains by expanding the placement even further and, assuming the
overallotment is fully taken, will now bring in gross proceeds of C$40m (12). One of only three
companies to book gains last week and arguably, the only one that traded well (KDK had a
dead cat bounce, ALDE did ultra-thin volume), FDy has the bit between its teeth and
outstanding relative strength to peers in the first six weeks of 2023.
Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.v): Not so ASCU.v, which started with a bang but its C$30m bought
deal placement took the wind completely out of its sails and this stock, which traded as high as
C$2.40 in mid-January, is now in the red for 2023.
Regulus Resources (REG.v): Another week, another flatline. No volume
Solaris Resources (SLS.to): Our biggest loser on the week and down 11.3%, I do not know
who has been selling SLS recently but I do know that bigger money has been smart to lower its
exposure to Ecuador since the protests died
down in 3q22. The six month chart pitting SLS
against the copper producers’ ETF (COPX)
shows how this stock has failed to rally, despite
having a supposed blue chip image and traded
volume that would produce envy in many an
established copper producer.
For reasons behind this sub-standard 2023, see
today’s Regional Politics because Ecuador may
have been bad so far, but it’s likely to get
worse.

The Producer Basket
After 6 weeks of 2023, the Producer Basket shows a gain of 2.04% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 47.20 799 38.34 47.98 1.7%
2 Barrick GOLD 17.18 1761.54 31.58 17.93 4.4%
3 Agnico Eagle AEM 51.99 488.9 25.05 51.23 -1.5%
4 Wheaton PM WPM 39.08 451.963 19.48 43.10 10.3%
5 Kinross Gold KGC 4.09 1256.1 5.26 4.19 2.4%
6 Alamos Gold AGI 10.11 393.1 4.19 10.67 5.5%
7 B2Gold BTG 3.57 1074.567 3.89 3.62 1.4%
8 Hecla Mining GFI 5.56 603.86 3.45 5.72 2.9%
9 Eldorado Gold EGO 8.36 185.73 1.68 9.04 8.1%
10 Wesdome Gold WDOFF 5.53 142.287 0.67 4.71 14.8%
All prices and stock quotes in U$ Port. avg 2.04%
A negative week for the larger PM producers, with the GED benchmark losing 2.3% and our box
of ten selected miners down a sliver more at 2.5%, due to the tally of two winners (AGI,
WDOFF and eight losers. No long list of droppers, instead we note that despite putting in a
22% premium bid for Newcrest, Newmont (NEM down 3.8%) wasn’t the worst performer of the
ten. That honour went to B2Gold (BTG down 4.5%) with Kinross (KGC down 4.3%) also down
more than the average. Special K has a big day tomorrow too, see below for that.
The tracking charts show how the complex has sold off sharply since the end of January and
the latest FOMC moved the macro needle, for the near-term at least.
The 2023 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and The 2023 Producer Basket: Percentage difference
20% comparative to GDX control between GDX benchmark & basket (negative = IKN ahead)
18% 4.0%
16% ikn 3.5%
14% gdx control 3.0%
12% 2.5%
10%
2.0%
8%
1.5%
6%
1.0%
4%
2% 0.5%
0% 0.0%
Jan1st Jan8th 15th 22nd 29th feb5th 12th Jan1st Jan8th 15th 22nd 29th feb5th 12th
source: NYSE, IKN calcs source: IKN calcs, NYSE data
Newmont Corp (NEM): The biggest mining news of last week began early, when Newmont
Mining (NEM) announced before the Australian market opened on its Monday morning that it
had tabled an offer to buy Newcrest Mining (NCM, or US ADR ticker NCMGY) in an all-paper
deal, with NEM offering 0.38 shares from every NCM share, the mooted newco owned 70%
NEM and 30% NCM. All that makes the deal worth
around U$17Bn on paper and an approximate 22%
premium to NCM’s Friday close. This ten-day
comparative chart shows how the two issues traded
on this news (right) and once the week had worn
through, Newcrest had added around 13.5% while
Newmont had dropped 3.8%. That’s quite a gap from
the nominal premium and an indication in itself that
the market is looking with scepticism on this deal.
This second comparative price chart (below) takes in
the last two years rather than two weeks, we also add
the main Gold Miners’ ETF (GDX) and NEM’s #1
15

market rival Barrick (GOLD) for a little extra context. Here we see over time there’s precious
little between any of this names and even last week’s pop in NCM keeps it inside the general
range. So it’s not as if NEM is bottom-fishing or trying to take advantage of some temporary
window in value.
The two companies are inextricably linked of course, as Newcrest was originally a spin-out from
Newmont and was even listed under its original name, “Newmont Australia”, when first listed on
the Australian stock exchange in the 1980s. It became Newcrest when it merged with another
spinco, BHP Gold, in 1990 and since then has ploughed
its own furrow. Over time NCM has made noises and
moves away from its main business hub of Australasia,
such as its enthusiasm for Argentina 20 or so years ago
(that waned) and more recent moves on early stage
assets in LatAm (e.g. SolGold, Lundin Gold in Ecuador),
we’ve also seen NCM move on Canadian assets (e.g. GT
Gold), but its still an Aussie powerhouse and this visual
(right) from the Australia Financial Review last week (13)
is a good one that shows what any eventual NEM-NCM
would own in the continent.
Large-scale gold mining in a safe jurisdiction is framed as
the main attraction for Newmont and in the carefully-
chosen words of NEM CEO Tom Palmer, the deal, “would
join industry-leading portfolios of assets and projects to
create long-term value across the combined global
business.” However, the initial arb on the deal proposal
and reaction from big holders and peer groups suggest
we are a long way from this deal happening. Here’s an example from Australian stockwire,
Reachmarkets (14):
The $24.4 billion offer comes as some of their largest investors have labeled the nature
of the bid as opportunistic. Allan Gray CIO Simon Mawhinney, who controls 7.3% of
NCM, has highlighted that the deal has sprung up when Newmont shares are
expensive and Newcrest stock is depressed.
We also had Agnico’s Sean Boyd being very diplomatic and giving Mining Indaba in South Africa
soundbites on the deal such as “…the deals need to have a logic” and “There’s a lot of risk and
I think what companies are seeing now is, in some ways, it can be cheaper to buy production if
that production fits with your current strategy.” That’s a nice way of saying that AEM isn’t going
close to this deal. Equally, Barrick (GOLD) quickly made it clear that it wouldn’t be joining NEM
in the hunt but CEO Mark Bristow was far more direct. Here’s Reuters (15):
MELBOURNE, Feb 7 (Reuters) - Barrick Gold (ABX.TO) has ruled out a counterbid for
number-one Australian gold producer Newcrest Mining (NCM.AX), its chief executive
told Bloomberg, eliminating what had seemed to be the most likely prospect of a rival
to bidder Newmont
"There is a difference between value merger acquisitions and getting bigger for the
sake of getting bigger," Bristow said in the Monday interview.
16

As noted on the blog last week (16) and shamelessly quoting myself, Bristow’s position is
almost certainly true and ABX isn’t going to offer any competitive alternative, but he probably
doesn’t want the deal to happen because “…a NEM/NCM hook up makes NewNEM big enough
to make a real takeover move on Barrick, instead of the lost decade of fannying about and
getting nowhere with the merger of equals. If, two years down the line, NewNEM can swallow
ABX and create a true sector behemoth it becomes the BHP of precious metals and an entity
that Top Table funds can no longer ignore.” Ultimately, size does matter and it’s a selling point
all by itself (depending on the price) and we also note that for NEM, targets that make a real
difference and move its dial are few and far between in this world. Newcrest is one of very few
entities that could add 30% (or more?) to the NEM market cap.
The bottom line: We now know that NEM first offered a 0.363/1 share scrip deal to NCM that
was immediately knocked back, before returning to NCM and offering the current 0.38/1 deal
that the NCM board decided was at least good enough to make public, though without any sort
of endorsement or positive comment. The market reaction indicates that if NEM really wants
this to happen it will need to sweeten the bid and risk criticism from its own ranks of
overpaying and/or going big “just because” as per Bristow. So the market is unconvinced,
despite there being world-level merchant banks pushing for the deal (the commish would be
juicy). However, we smallfry grunts can glean the most obvious of signals from NEM’s approach
for NCM, that the mining’s A-List considers now as the time to exchange dollars for fixed assets
and that implies the market is under-valuing a lot of other companies and stocks right now.
That cannot be a bad thing, whatever happens to NEM’s ambitions toward NCM at this time and
price.
Kinross Gold (KGC): If Newmont/Newcrest was the mining story of last week, Kinross may
turn out to be the centre of attention for the week to come and the reason is in this NR, out
Thursday Feb 9th (17)
TORONTO, Feb. 09, 2023 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- On Monday February 13, 2023,
Kinross Gold Corporation (TSX:K; NYSE:KGC) (“Kinross”) will release its initial
resource statement (together with a NI 43-101 Technical Report focused on geology
and metallurgy) for its Great Bear project in Red Lake, Ontario, followed by a virtual
review session with a short presentation.
It’s a big moment for Special K, they spent an awful lot of money to buy Dixie (Great Bear) and
since then, have reportedly put a couple of hundred thousand metres of drilling into it. While
plenty of people will be watching the headline M+I resource and inferred resource numbers
(KGC has quietly guided expectations to around 5m oz for the M+I, which would be a
reasonable number), I’ll be more interested in the proposed mining methods and related costs
as the resource is bound to expand over time, anyway. The review and presentation happen at
10am ET tomorrow Monday February 13th and the link to that is here (18). I’ll be on that call, it
may be a market mover.
Wesdome (WDO.to) (WDOFF): The quickest of comments to follow up our final comment
on WDO this time last week, as the market was
suggesting seller exhaustion and we posited on
whether those who would have sold were already
gone. That theory was bolstered last week and the
stock even managed to improve by 3.3% as peers
continued to drop.
You’ll get no call from me on WDO at all until its YE
financials show up, that’s the week after next. You
might not even get one then, we are data driven
here.
17

The TinyCaps List
After six weeks of 2023, the TinyCaps show a gain of 30.40% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Aurelius Min AUL.v 0.07 49.787 3.49 0.07 0.0%
Coast Copper COCO.v 0.045 64.001 3.52 0.055 22.2%
District Metals DMX.v 0.075 86.891 12.60 0.145 93.3%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.13 69.962 19.59 0.28 115.4%
Manitou Gold MTU.v 0.02 344.568 8.61 0.025 25.0%
Nine Mile Metals NINE.cse 0.29 57.025 16.82 0.295 1.7%
Palamina Corp PA.v 0.08 65.285 6.85 0.105 31.3%
Precipitate Gold PRG.v 0.075 130.367 11.08 0.085 13.3%
South Star STS.v 0.55 32.755 17.69 0.54 -1.8%
Viva Gold VAU.v 0.14 91.608 13.28 0.145 3.6%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 30.40%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $20m. They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a
little and allowed sub-U$20m market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, but it was a particularly depressing exercise to trawl through the whole of the TSXV and find companies
that are small enough, but with life in them. The vast majority of sub-$20m stocks are broken stocks, either
traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2023. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
The tinycap stocks continue to buck the trend and as the tracking chart shows (right), the climb
from zero to this week’s +30.4% basket average has been
in steady and incremental steps. I’d agree that holding a TinyCaps, 2023 weekly tracker
couple of real springers in the shape of DMX and LMS 40%
35%
makes a difference, but the ten stocks were chosen as
30%
representative of what’s out there and while most of the 25%
list remained unchanged, there was only one loser to 20%
report on the week (VAU.v) and the three winners include 15%
10%
a continuation of the moves in District (DMX.v up 1c),
5%
Latin Metals (LMS.v up 14.3%) and a new move in the 0%
2022 hotpot Nine Metals (NINE.v up 18.0%). Jan1st Jan8th 15th 22nd 29th feb5th 12th
source: IKN calcs, TSX data
Nine Metals (NINE.cse): According to its dedicated CSE
page (19) NINE last week 1) added new concession areas to its project site 2) hired AI
company Windfall Geotek to help it search for the metals underneath the surface and 3) paid a
third party IR company $20,000 for the next two months of IR help (a period covering PDAC,
we note). So far the sizzle has been more appetizing than the steak on this trade, it seems to
be stoking the fire again.
Latin Metals (LMS.v): Wednesday saw the second NR on early stage results from LMS’s
hitherto unmentioned Tillo project in Central Peru in as many weeks (20), this one carrying the
title “Latin Metals Rock Sampling Returns 1.3% Copper at Tillo Copper Project, Peru” and the
best of three assays reported in the NR. To date, the company has tried to frame Tillo as
something worthy of consideration without offering much in the way of evidence, aside early
stage surface sample results and plenty of geological theory.
For more, you too may want to tune in to the upcoming LMS webinar this Thursday, February
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16th at 1pm ET and featuring LMS CEO Keith Henderson. Last week’s NR has more details or if
you prefer, use this link (21) as register directly. Here’s the blub they’ve used for the gig:
On Thursday, February 16, 2023, at 10:00 a.m. PT / 1:00 p.m. ET, the Company will
host a live corporate update and will provide an overview of Latin Metals, its projects in
South America and its goals for the coming year.
A live question-and-answer period will follow this for investors, analysts, and media.
God willing, I’ll be on the call.
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future
I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
Ecuador: A major election reversal for Guillermo Lasso
The politics section is a constant dilemma of what to include and what to leave out, as I try
hard to keep focus on matters directly related to mining but need to mention wider political and
social matters to provide at least some context. The result often leaves me playing catch-up to
events that would seem to be innocuous at the time, but suddenly expand and take on far
greater significance. We had a classic example last weekend (and all this week) in Ecuador. Last
Sunday in IKN716 I limited comment on the elections taking place that day to this brief
paragraph before moving to “mining stuff”:
“This weekend sees Ecuador vote in the referendum on eight Constitutional questions
tabled by President Guillermo Lasso, designed to allow him to circumvent the
belligerent Congress of his country and give him some limited powers in specific areas
to pass laws. All the questions are likely to be voted up (it would be a severe
embarrassment if not) and he’ll claim some sort of victory, but in real terms not much
would have changed and he is still going to find it difficult to get effective laws passed
in the country. Also at the same time, Ecuador votes for 23 new regional prefects
(regional governors by any other name) and those votes are likely to give a better tell
on local issues.”
My oh my, how things have changed. Up to the vote, all voter intention polls had the eight
questions posed by the referendum being voted up. The results were the exact opposite, with
Ecuador’s rank and file using the occasion to oppose the government of Guillermo Lasso and
vote against his plans to govern by referendum (thereby avoiding contact with a hostile
Congress). All eight referendum propositions were voted down, leaving Lasso without a political
leg to stand on.
As for the prefects election results, Ecuador turned its back on nearly every candidate
associated with Lasso (his party now holds just two of the 23 regions) and his arch rival, Rafael
Correa (still hiding out in Belgium) saw his party make massive and unexpected gains up and
down the country, taking control of 10 regions including the economic powerhouse region of
Guayas, location of the city of Guayaquil that has always been a bastion for right wing
candidates. This is the first time Rafael Correa has seen electoral success there (his candidate
Aquiles Alvarez won) and the first time in 30 years Guayaquil has failed to elect a governor from
the Lasso party, displacing the hardline Lasso prefect Cynthia Viteri in the process. As for
Pachkutik, the political arm of the indigenous umbrella group CONAIE, they now control five of
the regions and will be able to push for more of their agenda against a severely weakened
Lasso government. There is now serious doubt as to whether Lasso will be able to hang on as
President for the next two (and a bit) years to finish his term of office, key ministers have
resigned from his cabinet in the last couple of days and there are also moves from Congress to
revive a previously frozen corruption investigation against Lasso and vote on impeaching him.
The main takeaways from last weekend’s major reversal for those of us outside and watching
from the mining sector bleachers are:
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1) Ecuador’s population used the occasion as a protest vote against a highly unpopular
President. It will be very difficult for Lasso to maintain his pretence of a popular
mandate going forward. Local analysts spoke of how people voted “illogically” against
laws that would have helped them and the country, merely because they were
proposed by Lasso and his government.
2) Ecuador is now far less stable politically than it was a week ago and it would be no
surprise to see Lasso use his “Muerte Cruzado” option and rule by decree for six
months in exchange for bringing forward the next Presidential election by a year.
3) This is bad news for Ecuador’s mining industry. Lasso’s plans to try and push through
development and approval of mining projects in rural areas must now be under serious
doubt. The Pachkutik/CONAIE anti-mining position was strengthened by the Lasso
losses, so at the risk of repeating myself you would do well to AVOID ECUADOR.
For more, the Washington Post last week ran a Q&A on the repercussions from the surprise
reversal, you can find it here (22) and the copypaste in Appendix 1, below.
Colombia: Zijin threatening to close down Buriticá
Bought from Continental Gold (ex-CNL) with the lubricant supplied by Newmont, Chinese
capitals Zijin Mining has hit the most obvious of problems at its Buriticá gold mine in Antioquia,
Colombia. Last week, Zijin sent a widely reproduced mail to the President of Colombia Gustavo
Petro that explained how illegal miners in the zone, aided and abetted by paymasters and far
right wing terrorist group “El Clan del Golfo”, has taken control of much of its mine. Zijin stated
that of the three new underground zones under development at Buriticá, two have been taken
over completely by the illegal miners via tunnels cut from outside its concession into the
orebody and are defended by groups of illegals who patrol the underground tunnels and use
dynamite, handguns and other explosive devices to keep the owners and their crews from the
mineralization. Police response in the zone has been half-hearted at best, as seen by this quote
from the commander of police in the area, Colonel Daniel Mazo (23):
“We have been running constant operations to help miners and the government close
illegal tunnels. For this, we ask the local community to give us more information that
would help us locate these (illegal) people.”
Not only supine, but suspiciously so. Zijin estimates it is losing around 50% of its total
production (or productive capacity) at Buriticá to an estimated 2,000 illegal miners working its
resource and that its medical teams have had to rescue 16 of its workers injured by illegals
since 2021 (as well as five illegal miners also found injured underground). It ended its missive
by stating (translated) “The situation is already critical and, if immediate and overwhelming
actions are not taken, the mine will be closed.”
Peru protest-watch
The political angle to Peru’s ongoing crisis stuck to its sordid script last week, as its Congress
did everything it could to avoid continuing the debate and eventual vote to move forward
elections. The result was the head of Congress extending the current legislature period for one
more week (until next Friday) to allow time for debate and, theoretically at least, arrive at a
consensus that would allow for elections in either 2023 or at the previous Congress extending
the current legislature period for one more week (until next Friday) to allow time for debate
and, theoretically at least, arrive at a consensus that would allow for elections in either 2023 or
at the previously slated date of April 2024 but now, even the latter is in doubt. The hard left
and hard right wings of Congress have done what many feared and dug in their heels, insisting
on their own earmarks to new elections that the other side is not going to agree to, thereby
causing stalemate. If the impasse continues, then even the April 2024 date for elections will not
be ratified by the required second vote and that means both Congress and the current
President Dina Boluarte will continue to 2026 (unless ousted, of course). As for the President,
she continues to play dumb and insist it’s all in the hands of Congress. She is supported by the
Lima establishment and has shown herself eager to please them by going the hard line route
against protests and marchers. We now face three political routes:
 The early elections happen. If they do, it’s almost certainly 2024 and Peru will protest
20

the fact that the current bunch get another year (almost a year and a half, in fact) in
power. In other words, even this best-case situation is not guaranteed to calm the
waters.
 Early elections are called off, President Boluarte resigns. If Congress plays dirty and
ignores all demands for new elections, Dina Boluarte will come under tremendous
pressure to resign as, if she does, State power is handed over to the Head of Congress
who would then be all-but obliged to call immediate elections (the only alternative
would be to descend rapidly into a true militarized government and risk a quasi-civil
war scenario). To now, Boluarte has taken the line that her resignation would not be
constitutional but that’s simply not the case, she’s obviously keen on holding on to the
power that’s fallen into her lap.
 Early elections are called off, President Boluarte does not resign. This is the most
contentious possible pathway and it’s been that way since the protests were
aggravated by Boluarte’s heavy-handed repression tactics in January. If both Congress
and Presidency refuses to budge, the current bad situation will get a lot worse and
cause widespread disruptions to begin again.
Of the three, I fear the most likely is now the worst (though wouldn’t bet on it, anything could
happen and probably will), that’s the nightmare scenario and could easily cause widespread
protests and social mobilization to resume, what with another poll this weekend confirming that
an overwhelming 71% of Peruvians want both Congress to close and Dina Boluarte to resign,
very similar figures to two weeks ago (24). We’ll cross that bridge when it arrives, now is a
good moment to shift gears and report on the inevitable rise of “protest fatigue” now on show
in Peru. Though protests and roadblocks still pepper the country’s provincial zones, particularly
the southern hotspots, and we also had another violent confrontation at Juliaca airport (Puno
region) that left 17 protesters in hospital and nine police officers injured. These incidents and
the ongoing blockades are not to be taken lightly, but overall and speaking in general terms
there has been a downtick in protest activity in Peru over the last week. Combine protest
fatigue (it’s difficult to be angry for a long period of time) with the onset of the rainy season in
the provincial uplands (very heavy in places, including mudslides that have killed at least 18
people and washed away houses) and the result in practical terms are headlines such as these
(25) (26):
“Glencore re-starts operations at its Antapaccay copper mine”
“China’s MMG secures supplies to continue copper
production at reduced rate in Peru”
As well as these data buried in wire reports:
“…a Reuters analysis of power usage data at some of the key mines in Peru,
the world’s no. 2 copper producer, indicated activity remained near normal
levels despite road blockades, attacks and protests that have roiled the
Andean nation for over two months.”
That’s not to say things will remain calm (see above) and it’s worth remembering that the
whole “early election” issue is merely a staging post toward the real issues that will show once
elections are on the table (or not). Peru’s problems in 2023 will not be solved by Congress or
the executive in the next week, no matter what they do or decide and the year is set to go
downhill. The only questions remaining are “how quickly?” and “in what direction?” as my major
fear, that of an Antauro Humala candidacy and eventual election win, is still looming on the
horizon.
Argentina: The latest poll on the 2023 Presidential elections
There’s a long way to go before the vote and the Argentina election cycle also includes a form
of primaries period that will thin out the candidates from the same (or alliance) parties, so this
week’s voter intention poll from pollster Zubán Cordoba (27) is best regarded as a snapshot of
the current long list than a rundown of the names that will appear on the ballot. All the same,
it’s a useful exercise in taking the pulse of the country with a little over eight months to go
21

before the big day (October 22nd). The poll surveyed 1,300 people face-to-face and claims a
margin of error of +/-2.7%, here’s the screenshot from the report with your author translating
the question asked:
Notes:
 Topping the list at 16.2% of voter intention is the independent candidate, Javier Milei, best
described as a populist right-wing semi-Libertarian free marketer. He’s an oddball mix (with
a haircut to match) but he’s intelligent, charismatic, a good speaker and presents Argentina
with an alternative to the samo samo “right wing establishment or Peronist left” choices.
 Horacio Larreta is the current governor of the City of Buenos Aires and along with Patricia
Bullirch (and Macri himself) is the Macri party candidate from the main opposition to the
current government.
 Then we have the government candidates, in order the current FinMin and “superminister”
Sergio Massa, current President Alberto Fernández and current governor of Buenos Aires
Province Axel Kiciloff. Of the three, Kiciloff will probably opt out of the race, but President
Alberto has made his re-election desires clear and Sergio Massa has had eyes on the top job
for well over a decade.
The field will become clear on August 13th (six months from now) when the primaries happen
(known as the PASO vote) and the current government and opposition Macristas decide on who
will run. With Milei running first at the moment, it’s set to be a three-cornered fight in the first
round of voting and then we’ll see who makes it into a near-inevitable run-off for the job.
There’s a lot on the line in this election that will mark whether the LatAm left wing can continue
winning and holding power, but it will be an uphill task for the government candidate (whoever
they may be) to contain a resurgent right and/or the independent and fresh image offered by
Milei, also nominally right wing. However and the good news for us FDI players interested in
mining is that all three candidates are bound to be supportive of mining and mine investment in
their own ways. The current government has franked its pro-mining credentials well during the
Alberto years and has managed to move the sector forward better than the Macri government
ever could, even though Macri’s (and his party’s) pro-mining position was also clear. And expect
nothing less from the free-market economics of Javier Milei, he’s all about small government
and capitalism unchained.
22

Market Watching
More thoughts on American Eagle (AE.v)
I caught up with Ore Group CEO Stephen Stewart last week and the main reason was to poke
and prod on the potential timing for the next drill assays out of American Eagle (AE.v) and its
NAK project, BC CA, as featured in IKN715 dated January 29th. So as not to keep you in
suspense, the answer on drill assays was (quote), “AE drill results should be soon. We’ve been
pushing the labs.” As the last NR came on January 25th and according to AE’s timing guidance
was about a month later than expected, the best guess is that we’ll see the NR in the next two
weeks max and probably this week (but I have no special info, folks).
By way of a quick reminder, two weeks ago in IKN715 we argued…
1) AE is not a P+D and had a real prospect on its hands
2) I was happy for the time being to watch without taking a position
3) The next few holes, particularly pending assays from holes NAK22-05 and NAK22-06,
should provide significant clues as to whether the company’s theory of a large mineral
body existing at depth at NAK were true or not.
We also included this drill plan on the IKJN715 note, by way of a final memory nudge, that
shows the zones we’re most interested in.
As for trading, AE spent most of January in the 20c range and by the time we got to the stock
and made our passing comments, it was bouncing around the 18c level. Since the it’s traded
softly and close Friday at 14.5c, which of course suits
your author as he sits on the sidelines watching. That
price softness may be an augur of mediocre results
to come, but if not (and we recall, there was zero
leaking of the initial discovery hole result in
November that shot the stock from 3c to 30c) and
AE’s holes 005 and 006 show interesting
widths/grades/both, we may even be able to buy in
at the prices we saw in IKN715, that 18c to 20c
range and ride what could become a very large
porphyry copper gold deposit higher.
I’ll be watching the wires for this one, a potential
catalyst for a potential trade and now, the price is even more attractive. Finally and in the same
way as IKN715, I recommend you check out the dedicated core photo page at the AE website
(28), particularly the photos of the core from the deeper parts of 005 and 006. Plenty of chalco
and bornite on display.
23

A quick moly note
There’s been a minor ripple running through the copper world recently regarding the sharp
price rise in molybdenum, aka moly, so we dedicate a couple of lines to the subject this
weekend and start with a long-term price chart (29):
The recent move in the spot price of moly to U$90/kb (approx U$40.82/lb) comes on the back
of a shift in moly prices that started in 2022, but the current spike is more about the lack of
available product on a temporary basis, so don’t expect it to continue. Moly is a thinly traded
and most of its sales happen on long-term contract, but the LME now runs a contract and the
spike may be a sort of “mini nickel” situation, alluding to the short squeeze with saw in that
metal early last year. While U$40/kg and U$50/kg prices may turn out to be sustainable,
nobody should bank on the current move sticking.
As for the effects on our investments, the most important piece of advice is not to start
factoring in moly prices as a reason to buy this-or-that stock. Yes it’s true that producers such
as large copper mines (or even our preferred Amerigo (ARG.to)) have moly as a by-product
credit and the quick doubling of prices may result in a temporary bonus, but that’s as far as you
should take the thought and I’d advise against chasing after juniors with moly projects (though
if you insist on speculation, take a look at Starcore (SAM.to) as it has an arguable 10c worth of
moly value to add to its current 20c stock price). Any extra income from moly for your copper
or other trades, treat it as a bonus but don’t start making active investment decisions based on
the value of your moly kicker.
Discovery Silver (DSV.to) files its 43-101
Friday evening saw one of the better silver stories out there, Discovery Silver (DSV.v), file its
third party (Ausenco) 43-101 pre-feasibility study for the Cordero project, Northern Mexico. This
is a story we followed closely for some time and also owned between 3q21 and 2q22, only to
sell for a small loss. I have my copy of the 43-101 and though I haven’t had a lot of time to
study its contents, the main point of interest for a high tonnage, high capex, low grade bulk
mining proposition with a whole range of rock types proposed in its mine plan has always been
its metallurgy. As a result I spent more time in that section than anywhere else and have to say
that I came away impressed.
DSV has done mountains of work on its met and it shows in the extensive studies and results
laid out in the document. All tests and point to good recoveries and stable results from a wide
range of grades and rock types (e.g. the only time they failed to produce a saleable concentrate
was when running low grade waste as a control) and on perusal, the section also revealed just
why DSV has changed its plan from the 2021 PEA and will no longer run the modest levels of
overlaying oxide material in a separate circuit before getting to the main sulphide operation.
Page 177 has the details:
24

Long story short, DSV has found it can run the oxide material blended in with the main bulk of
sulphide without any noticeable loss in recoveries from either rock type, so that’s the new plan
and none of the original resource gets “long-term stockpiled” (i.e. mined and forgotten).
A previous holding and, in my opinion, still a company worth considering as a silver trade, DSV’s
major issue will be to attract either the financing required or a buyer big enough to take on the
large capex outlay needed to build this mine. These days and on seeing how both companies
have progressed I now prefer AbraSilver (ABRA.v) for my silver exposure but, if silver started
showing the type of bullish behaviour and upward volatility it offers from time to time, this
would be my second purchase in the sub-sector.
Conclusion
IKN717 is done and as usual, we end with bullet points:
 I’ve bought more AbraSilver (ABRA.v) recently, only to see the stock move even lower,
but I’m not sweating this position even though its action may be somewhat annoying
and with all the hallmarks of market suppression. The plan here is to get even, not get
mad and there’s way too much basic mine value being revealed by the drillbit at
Diablillos for this stock to stay this low. Value investing is sometimes boring.
 Instead of pointing out to you once again how poor Colombia, Ecuador and Peru
currently look on the political risk scale for mining companies, let’s point out the ever
improving scenario unfolding in Argentina. OIr did I just badmouth Colombia, Ecuador
and Peru again?
 Plenty of interesting online events this coming week, starting with Kinross and its
Dixie/Great Bear presentation tomorrow. Also, one eye on the Latin Metals (LMS.v show
later in the week for clues on why the stock has pinged so hard on what seems to be
an set of early stage geologist-interest-only results from Tillo.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stock is Minera Alamos (MAI.v). Flash
updates will be sent if required by events.
25

I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best wishes, Mark
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/02/schedule-for-week-of-february-12-2023.html
(2) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cjLECIqCg7E
(3) https://www.abrasilver.com/news-releases/abrasilver-reports-multiple-wide-silver-drill-intercepts-including-103-
metres-grading-139-gt-silver-near-surface-in-new-southwest-zone-at-diablillos
(4) https://www.abrasilver.com/news-releases/abrasilver-intersects-new-high-grade-feeder-structure-in-southwest-zone-
at-diablillos-871-gt-ageq-over-27m-and-522-gt-ageq-over-36m
(5) https://www.abrasilver.com/news-releases/abrasilver-intersects-highest-grade-silver-intercept-of-all-time-at-diablillos-
12581-gt-silver-and-445-gt-gold-16225-gt-ageq-over-1-metre
(6) https://www.abrasilver.com/news-releases/abrasilver-continues-to-drill-wide-silver-intercepts-at-new-jac-zone
(7) https://www.abrasilver.com/_resources/presentations/corporate-presentation.pdf?v=0.832
(8) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BHu5h26c4nc
(9) https://6ix.com/event/chesapeake-gold-2023-work-plan/
(10) https://www.zawya.com/en/markets/commodities/copper-heads-for-third-straight-weekly-loss-on-weak-chinese-
demand-gavpma0n
(11) https://www.mining.com/web/russian-metal-makes-up-42-of-lme-warehouses-stocks-report/
(12) https://faradaycopper.com/news-releases/faraday-copper-announces-upsize-to-previously-announced-bought-deal-
financing-to-c-34.8-million/
(13) https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/doesn-t-make-sense-barrick-cool-on-newcrest-bidding-war-20230207-p5cifr
(14) https://reachmarkets.com.au/news/gold-ma-heats-up-as-newcrest-set-for-biggest-deal-of-the-decade/
(15) https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/barrick-rules-out-rival-bid-australias-newcrest-bloomberg-2023-02-07/
(16) https://iknnews.com/nem-ncm-and-mis-dos-centavitos/
(17) https://www.kinross.com/news-and-investors/news-releases/press-release-details/2023/Kinross-to-provide-update-
on-Great-Bear-project/default.aspx
(18) https://app.webinar.net/0Okn1ZlLmMX
(19) https://thecse.com/en/listings/mining/nine-mile-metals-ltd
(20) https://latin-metals.com/news-releases/latin-metals-rock-sampling-returns-1.3-copper-at-tillo-copper-project-peru/
(21) https://meet.zoho.com/W7CE9ctAr2
(22) https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/energy/how-ecuador-presidents-constitutional-play-
backfired/2023/02/08/d64e72c2-a7f0-11ed-b2a3-edb05ee0e313_story.html
(23) https://www.bluradio.com/blu360/antioquia/zijin-continental-gold-dijo-a-gustavo-petro-que-enfrentan-crisis-ante-la-
mineria-ilegal-en-buritica-rg10
(24) https://rpp.pe/politica/gobierno/datum-el-71-de-la-poblacion-quiere-cierre-del-congreso-y-renuncia-de-dina-
boluarte-noticia-1466106?ref=rpp
(25) https://www.rumbominero.com/peru/glencore-mina-de-cobre-antapaccay/
(26) https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/chinas-mmg-secures-supplies-to-continue-copper-production-at-reduced-
rate-in-peru/
(27) https://www.iprofesional.com/politica/377200-vuelve-el-fenomeno-milei-esto-revela-una-nueva-encuesta
(28) https://americaneaglegold.ca/projects/gallery-page/
(29) https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/molybden
26

Appendix 1: WaPo Q&A on the fall-out of the Ecuador elections
Ecuador, one of the few countries in South America with a conservative leader, saw its politics thrown into confusion in
early February when President Guillermo Lasso received a double rebuke from voters. A package of constitutional
amendments he proposed was voted down, to the surprise of pollsters and investors, and the left-leaning opposition had
a strong showing for mayoral races in key cities. The country’s bonds plunged at the possibility that the market-friendly
Lasso won’t be able to finish the two years left in his term.
1. What did Lasso propose?
The key referendum proposal was to allow the extradition of organized crime bosses to the US. This was an attempt by
Lasso to bolster his popularity, which had suffered from a rise in drug-related violence. Other amendments focused on
security, the environment and a plan to reduce the size of the national assembly.
2. What were the results?
With more than 98% of votes tallied, all eight constitutional amendments proposed by Lasso’s government failed,
including the key extradition reform. In the same vote, former president Rafael Correa’s party scored victories in most of
the major municipal races, including in the capital of Quito. His Citizen Revolution party also won the mayorship in
Guayaquil, one of the nation’s most important cities — one that for 30 years had been the stronghold of Lasso’s Social
Christian Party.
3. Why were the amendments rejected?
That’s puzzling analysts, since pre-election surveys by pollsters Ipsos and Cetadatos had shown the majority of
Ecuadorians expressing support for all eight proposals. One line of thought is that voters opted to reject constitutional
reforms solely to protest Lasso’s administration. The referendum “turned into an apparent plebiscite” on Lasso’s
government, according to Barclays Plc. economist Alejandro Arreaza.
4. What was the reaction?
The outcome caught most politicians and investors by surprise. As results trickled in, the nation’s bonds plummeted,
with notes due in 2030 plunging 10 cents on Feb. 6, the biggest single-day drop on record. Wall Street analysts argued
the rejection of Lasso’s proposals weaken his mandate in the short term, while Citizen Revolution’s strong showing
clouds the nation’s long-term financial outlook.
5. Why could this bring Lasso down?
The results reinforce the nation’s current policy paralysis and dependence on high oil prices, said Siobhan Morden, a
veteran sovereign debt strategist who’s specialized in emerging-market debt for the past three decades. The opposition-
controlled national assembly already has a corruption investigation open against Lasso. That could be used as a vehicle
for trying to impeach him, though that’s still seen as unlikely. Lawmakers failed to gain the two-thirds majority support
needed to remove Lasso from office in 2022. Lasso’s term is set to end in 2025, but investors say his mandate is
weaker going forward. That could leave him unable to enact the economic reforms they see as needed to promote long-
term growth in the South American country.
6. Who are the alternatives?
Lasso said he plans to seek reelection, and indigenous leader Leonidas Iza is expected to take to the streets in the
coming weeks or months as he looks to capitalize off Lasso’s weakness and elevate his national profile, Eurasia Group
analysts Risa Grais-Targow and Yael Sternberg wrote. Former president Correa is exiled in Belgium.
7. Why are so investors so wary of political instability in Ecuador?
Even as international reserves are at record highs, debt payments in the coming years are minimal and the fiscal deficit
has has narrowed under Lasso’s government, money managers are quick to flee when political uncertainty creeps into
Ecuador. Since its independence 200 years ago, the country has defaulted on its external debt 11 times, most recently
at the onset of the coronavirus pandemic. Minimal instability in the nation could dethrone one of the few market-friendly
administrations in the region, leaving the reins in the hands of the opposition, a hard sell for investors who still have
fresh memories of Correa’s debt default in 2008.
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2022
Closed in 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
Goldshore Res GSHR.v Nov'22 C$0.18 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 88.9% Quick profit taken
Palamina Corp PA.v Dec'22 C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.08 -72.9% Clear-out of underperformer
Pure Gold PGM.h Dec'22 C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.015 -89.3% tiny trade on vh risk, went Ch11
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Set-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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