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The IKN Weekly
Week 714, January 22nd 2023
Contents
This Week: Trade heads-up, In Today’s Edition, The metals lead the miners.
Fundamental Analysis: Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) 4q22 production and 2023 guidance.
Stocks to Follow: ATAC Resources (ATC.v), Contango Ore (CTGO), Aldebaran Resources
(ALDE.v), Newcore Gold (NCAU.v), Western Copper & Gold (WRN.to) (WRN), QC Copper & Gold
(QCCU.v).
Copper Basket: Overview, Oroco Resources (OCO.v), Faraday Copper (FDY.to), Regulus
Resources (REG.v), Hot Chili (HCH.v).
Producer Basket: Overview, Barrick Gold (GOLD), Wesdome Gold (WDO.to) (WDOFF), B2Gold
(BTG) (BTO.to).
TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Latin Metals (LMS.v), Coast Copper (COCO.v), District Metals
(DMX.v), Palamina Corp (PA.v).
Regional Politics: Chile rejects Dominga, Peru’s protest marches go largely as expected and
the country goes downhill, Ecuador does Davos, Colombia does Davos, Argentina’s record year
for metals exports.
Market Watching: Orezone (ORE.to) continues to offer trade potential, Keeping an eye on
Goldshore Resources (GSHR.v), Wesdome Gold (WDO.to) (WDOFF) in a tough spot, Adding to
AbraSilver (ABRA.v) but deferring the analysis note.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
Trade heads-up
Though I indicated last weekend in IKN713 that I might add some AbraSilver (ABRA.v), I didn’t
make an outright official call and eventually didn’t add any shares to the pile. However and on
due consideration this weekend, I’ve decided to add and if the market is kind the purchase
should being down my cost average a penny. Therefore the call, I am adding to AbraSilver
(ABRA.v) in the days to come. Expect more on the stock next weekend in IKN715.
In Today’s Edition
 We do Amerigo in the main Fundies section, we do Wesdome (WDO.to) (WDOFF) in
Market Watching, we do B2Gold in Producer Basket, and there’s even some more on
Orezone (ORE.to). Crunch those numbers.
 In Regional Politics this week we cover news from three countries you should avoid for
mining in LatAm this year, and two that are backable. The bad guys are Peru, Ecuador
and Colombia, the good guys are Chile and Argentina.
 Gold continues to rise without Wall St, as the suited ladies and gents play their cash in
higher yield bonds, rather than the USD or bullion. However and at some point, gold
will become an attractive destination for their money and when it does, the price will
have enough upside to get us over $2k (and stay there).
 Copper continues to look strong, so happy Year of the Rabbit to you all.
1

The metals lead the miners
“Who leads who?” The answer to this age-old dynamic and permanent question in the metals
and mining market changes over time; sometimes the mining company stocks lead the metals
complex upwards, sometimes they move up hand-in-hand, sometimes it simply doesn’t matter
but at the moment, let there be no doubt:
The answer is today’s intro title line. Last week saw copper continue on its merry bull run and
while gold’s improvement was more discreet, it was enough to pull the GDX and its components
away from the gravitational drag of the broad market weakness on Wednesday’s weak US retail
sales reading and for that, we quote this (1):
Retail sales fell 1.1 percent last month. Data for November was revised to show sales
dropping 1 percent instead of 0.6 percent as previously reported. It was the second
straight monthly decline. Economists polled by
Reuters had forecast sales decreasing 0.8 percent.
We also note gold out-performed its classic mirror, the
US Dollar, as seen in the DXY vs GC00 (us dollar index
vs gold continuous contract) chart, inset right. That
makes sense, as US Retail Sales will affect the things
The USA buys and in the currency The USA uses to do
so, rather than the things not currently in fashion in the
world’s biggest economy. Via the GLD inventory and
inventory/price ratio, we’ve closely followed the
weakness in gold demand on Wall St. in these current
times and that hasn’t changed a jot in the last seven
days. To ram home the point, this weekend we run two
versions of each chart to shows the longview (2016 to date) and the detail of how weak the
ratio has been recently (September 30th 2022 to date):
GLD gold holdings, 2016 to date (metric tonnes)
1300
1250
1200
1150
1100
1050
1000
950
900
850
800
750
700
650
600
The current “900 and bits” tonnes has been dropping since end 3q22 and is down from the post
Covid crisis 2020 peak, but doesn’t look too out of place on the long-term chart. However…
2
61/4/1 61/61/3 61/62/5 61/8/8 61/81/01 61/92/21 71/41/3 71/42/5 71/4/8 71/61/01 71/72/21 81/21/3 81/22/5 81/2/8 81/21/01 81/42/21 91/8/3 91/02/5 91/13/7 91/01/01 91/02/21 02/5/3 02/51/5 02/82/7 02/7/01 02/71/21 12/3/3 12/11/5 12/22/7 12/1/01 12/31/21 22/42/2 22/6/5 22/02/7 22/92/9 22/9/21
mt GLD gold holdings, last three months (metric tonnes)
960
955
950
945
940
935
930
925
920
915
910
source: SPDR GLD data 905
900
22/9/03 22/01/01 22/01/02 22/01/03 22/11/9 22/11/91 22/11/92 22/21/9 22/21/91 22/21/92 32/1/8 32/1/81
mt
source: SPDR GLD data

8.20 GLD: Inventory/Price Ratio, 2016 to date
8.00
7.80
7.60
7.40
7.20
7.00
6.80
6.60
6.40
6.20
6.00
5.80
5.60
5.40
5.20
5.00
…the ratio shows just how gold has rallied without the benefit of the western world’s financial
institutions, i.e. Wall St and The USA’s big buyers, who have been reaching for yield instead of
buying the monetary metal. This report dated January 13th is an example (2)
Analysis: Investors snap up record $39 bln emerging
market sovereign bond splurge
Or how about this one, dated January 18th (3), to which we add the start of the note:
Global Bond Sales Off to Record Start of Nearly $600 Billion
The best start to a year for bond returns is helping fuel an unprecedented debt-sale
bonanza by governments and companies around the world of more than half a trillion
dollars.
From European banks to Asian corporates and developing-nation sovereigns, virtually
every corner of the new issue market is booming, thanks in part to a rally that’s seen
global bonds of all stripes surge 4.1% to start the year, the best performance in data
stretching back to 1999.
There are, after all, other things to do with money than just plough it into either the USD or
gold bullion. So while world Central Banks buy bullion (and the rumours about the size of recent
Chinese buying grow by the week), instos have been ploughing into higher yield bond issuance
and feeding the appetite of counties and corps looking to secure investment capital. One more
headline, dated January 20th (4):
Investors Pour Money Into Emerging Market ETFs
There are plenty more where they come from as the US Dollar weakens into 2023 and Davos
debates on the prospects of a US recession this year. But despite this good-looking chart…
…gold is still rejected as a preferred investment vehicle by the great and good of WEF and Wall
St. even as the US Dollar drops. As reported last week and underscored in that small inset chart
above, gold has started to out-perform gold modestly but we are still far from the part of the
market cycle when it catches a major speculative bid, its moves are due to its defensive nature,
3
61/4/1 61/61/3 61/62/5 61/8/8 61/81/01 61/92/21 71/41/3 71/42/5 71/4/8 71/61/01 71/72/21 81/21/3 81/22/5 81/2/8 81/21/01 81/42/21 91/8/3 91/02/5 91/13/7 91/01/01 91/02/21 02/5/3 02/51/5 02/82/7 02/7/01 02/71/21 12/3/3 12/11/5 12/22/7 12/1/01 12/31/21 22/42/2 22/6/5 22/02/7 22/92/9 22/9/21
6.30 GLD: Inventory/Price Ratio, last three months
6.20
6.10
6.00
5.90
5.80
5.70
5.60
5.50
5.40
5.30
5.20
5.10
Source: SPDR data, IKN calcs 5.00
4.90
4.80
22/9/03 22/01/5 22/01/01 22/01/51 22/01/02 22/01/52 22/01/03 22/11/4 22/11/9 22/11/41 22/11/91 22/11/42 22/11/92 22/21/4 22/21/9 22/21/41 22/21/91 22/21/42 22/21/92 32/1/3 32/1/8 32/1/31 32/1/81
Source: SPDR data, IKN calcs

the safe haven of all safe havens. Instead, the money leaving the US economy is finding plenty
of investment opportunities in the sovereign and corporate bond market, places where the
projected yields are attractive today compared to the projected drop in inflation rates as the
Fed slams the brakes on the US (and world) economies. Risk isn’t dropping with the equities
and broad market stock market drops, instead it’s being transferred to other markets that offer
different opportunities during this phase, while the world makes up its mind on whether it’s
going to be a soft landing, a mild recession or something worse. And with risk transferred
rather than lessened, gold as an investment opportunity (with zero yield) simply does not
attract.
As for macro market moving news to come, there’s nothing particularly special set for the week
ahead and while Fed member jawbone attacks can happen at any time, most eyes are now on
the next FOMC. With ten days and counting to the end of the meeting, the 2pm ET Statement
and then the Jay Powell jawbone presser, all on February 1st, our talking head friends in Davos
were playing the 0.25/0.5 guessing game between them last week. They can chew the cud all
they want, we take our cues from a market that’s now clearly indicating the next two Fed
meetings announcing 0.25% rises apiece. That scenario may change with new data but, for the
time being, the pivot narrative is in the ascendancy and that’s good for the near-term fortunes
of gold. This is the same market as last week’s market, good for gold and will get better once
The USA starts buying again.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) 4q22 production and 2023 guidance
Tuesday evening saw our preferred copper investment, Amerigo Resources (ARG.to), publish its
4q22 production NR (5), along with other information on the quarter just gone and guidance for
2023. This five-day chart comparing ARG with the copper producers’ ETF (COPX) shows that
the NR was received positively by the market. Considering this move was on the back of the
strength we’ve seen in ARG all 2023, it’s a quietly impressive result.
Today’s note covers the 4q22 production numbers, what we can expect from the financials
when they show on February 22nd (pre-open) and to save time and space, we also run the
ballpark scenario on the company’s 2023 guidance, keeping it real and leaving plenty of upside
surprises if the market moves in our favour.
ARG.to: Copper sales
We start here (right), with copper sales of
16.79m lbs in 4q22 which was slightly over
our house estimate (but not enough to sweat
over. We also incorporate the company’s 2023 guidance which was a predictable and flat
62.3m lbs. We model a simple 16mlbs/qtr,
with a slight ¿ly lower estimate for 2q23 as
4
28.11 7.31 29.41 9.51 11.51 31.51 9.61 298.61 92.61 68.41 81.61 97.61 00.61 6.41 61 61
20
18
16
14
12
10 8
6
4
2
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4 tse32q1 tse32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
source: company filings
rtq/uC
sblM

that quarter includes the company’s nine days of scheduled downtime for maintenance.
In all likelihood, ARG will beat that 62.3m lbs number
in the same way it beat its 61.9m lbs guidance in
2022 by a couple of million, but we err to the side of
caution, as ever. So with ARG reporting an average
received price of U$3.80/lb in 4q22, that implies a
gross copper value of U$63.9mm. As for 2023, we
guess at U$4.10/lb for the current 1q23, then a flat
U$4.20/lb for the rest of the year and that means if
copper takes off /the way this desk and many others
are now predicting), there will be plenty of extra
gross revenue to add to this chart (start with +10c/lb
= +U$1.6m/qtr).
From there, we move to the total revenues number that we see at the top of the P+L. First we
adjust for the provisional pricing and with copper prices now rising again, we get to add back
the adjustments that were subtracted in Q2 and Q3.
ARG: Gross Cu value, Cu revs and Revs total, per qtr
5
341.85 376.66 709.84 436.66 293.17 305.05 100.27 431.96 231.84 36.27 172.57 900.25 797.37 904.97 567.35 766.36 818.55
485.33
457.65 879.74
858.03
9.36 9.86
51.84
6.56 6.17
25.94
3.16 3.36
53.24
2.76 2.76
26.24
2.76 2.76
26.24
90
80
70
60
50
40 30
20
10
0
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 tse22q4 tse32q1 tse32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
ARG: Cu gross value, per qtr
U$m Cu gross value
Cu revs
Revs total
source: company filings
Our best guess is U$5m and then come the main deductions of the DET royalties, smelting,
refining and transport (below left). The big one it the DET and on that there’s the sliding scale,
on which ARG pays the owner of the tailings, DET (i.e. Codelco’s El Teniente mine). The sliding
scale is well known and you can get a copy of the table from the company’s latest corporate
presentation. Then below right we get to add back the moly credit revenue and on that, we’re
pitching at U$3.5m for 4q22 (equivalent to 3q22), then a slightly higher U$4m/qtr for 2023.
In this please note that in the last few weeks moly spot prices have shot higher (supply and
demand) and according to source, Trading Economics (6). Prices are now over double the price
case used by ARG in its 2023 budget. If these prices maintain, ARG is in for a big cash bonus
that will bring down its operating cash cost substantially, but for the time being we prefer to
leave this as a potential upside surprise, rather than part of our model.
2.72 3.33
3.44
0.65 1.85 6.66 0.27 6.27 8.37 7.36 8.65 9.36 6.56 3.16 2.76 2.76
80
70
60
50
40 30
20
10
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 tse22q4 tse32q1 tse32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
U$m
source: company filings, IKN ests
ARG: Charges to Cu revs
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 tse22q4 tse32q1 tse32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
U$m Transport ARG: Mo credits
smelting/refining
DET royalties
source: company filings, IKN ests
605.3
267.4
116.5
822.4
683.3
142.2
294.3 5.3 4 4 4 4
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 tse22q4 tse32q1 tse32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
U$m
source: company filings, IKN ests

At this point we move to the P+L items and into GAAP, but before we end today’s note we’ll put
together a non-GAAP chart that estimates the cash available to ARG for its purposes this year.
First things first though, here we have our estimated top line revenues for 4q22 and 2023
(along with previous years’ results), then COGS subtracted to give a gross profit number:
ARG.to: Quarterly Earnings overview
6
389.8
927.51
878.81 721.91
291.41
198.91
624.12
616.1
655.3-
1.21
21 6.7
6.7 6.7
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 tse22q4 tse32q1 tse32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
revenues
COGS
Gross profit
Here’s how costs break down, with mine site COGS the big item. We can get granular on that
number set another day (perhaps end February at
ARG.to: Costs breakdown
the YE’22 results). What we do know is that ARG is
guiding costs somewhat higher in 2023, that’s due to
general cost inflation and a list of input prices going
up (see the NR for the list).
Then the light blue gross profits number turns into
operating and then net profit in this chart. The
important dataset to follow here is operating profit
and for 4q22, we estimate ARG returns a healthy
U$10.1m, plus another U$10.4m for 1q23. After that
and assuming flat copper prices (along with modest
moly prices and the other conservatively pitched
inputs, as above), operating profits drop to around
U$6m/qtr as the provisional price adjustments from previous quarters become a neutral effect.
275.82 954.13 920.03 673.13 49.33 811.23 933.23 869.13
414.43
63 53 33 53 53
40
38
36
34
32
30
28 26
24
22
20
02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 tse22q4 tse32q1 tse32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
other
U$m G&A+roy
COGS
source: company data, IKN ests
ARG.to: Gross, operating and net profits, per qtr
60.8
44.31
40.61
70.81
56.21
15.71
10.12
74.1- 41.5-
01.01 04.01
00.6 09.5 06.5
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 tse22q4 tse32q1 tse32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
U$m Gross profit
op profit
Net Income
source: ARG data

And that sums up what we see in the ARG numbers for the quarter just gone, as well as what’s
coming in 2023 assuming a modestly positive macro backdrop. ARG is back into its “cash cow”
mode and will churn out net profits with copper prices where they are. However, we also know
that it has plans to distribute cash to its shareholders as well as spend on sustaining capex
upgrades to its MVC operation. Indeed, at first sight it would seem that according to the GAAP
regulated P+L results, ARG doesn’t generate enough cash to cover the quarterly dividend, the
current share buyback program, the capex budget and also offer the potential of a juicy bonus
dividend down the line, in the way it alludes in the latest NR and in other recent literature.
Therefore and to finish this week’s note on our preferred copper stock, here’s a table that
attempts to ballpark the “real world margin” ARG enjoys, by subtracting operating profit from
top-line revenues, but then adding back the DD&A segment of operating costs that are non-
cash, but form around U$4.5m to $5m of the COGS total per quarter. This approximate model
doesn’t adjust for non-realized forex gains or losses, as we try to stay in the currency which
ARG needs for its payments and major outgoings (and the recent forex swings make for some
unreliable quarterly shifts in a minor part of the data that shouldn’t be a real influence).
Anyway, once the calculation is done we get this chart:
ARG: The real world margin
7
36.4 29.2- 62.5 04.7 61.0- 30.1 33.21 97.71 24.02 93.22 79.61 15.22
49.52
95.3 20.0- 02.51 05.51 01.11 00.11 07.01
30
25
20
15
10 5
0
-5
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 tse22q4 tse32q1 tse32q2 tse32q3 tse32q4
U$m
source: ARG data, IKN calcs and ests
Here we clearly see the rapid change in fortune enjoyed by ARG when 2020 became 2021, then
the hole in the numbers caused by the copper drop mid-2022 that took away both top line
revenues and caused a negative pricing adjustment to knock on from the previous quarters. But
the numbers now tell us that the bad days are gone (thanks to copper’s rally, of course) and at
the new price deck ARG will have all the money it needs to do all the things it wants.
Erring to the side of caution, if we ignore 4q22 and it’s prospective $15m payola entirely and
base our thoughts on the conservative parameters set out for our 2023 model, this gives us a
total for the four quarters of U$48.3m. This is the money ARG has to play with for its main cash
outgoings which include the regular and scheduled C$0.03/qtr dividends, the NCIB share
buyback facility, its budgeted capex projects and any eventual bonus dividends paid to us
shareholders later in the year from excess treasury. Here are bullet points on each:
 We expect the quarterly dividend to continue as per. While the final cash total for
distributions isn’t known, we’re going to be close with a guesstimate of U$14.6m.
 We expect ARG to use the all its NCIB share buyback facility and retire 11.08m shares
from circulation in 2023. What’s more, we expect the buybacks to be done and dusted
by the end of 3q23, i.e. end September, at the latest. As for cost, we may see again
how ARG’s participation in the open market pushes up prices and it’s not easy to
estimate total cost, but assuming an average purchase price of U$1.30 (C$1.69 at
today’s forex), the facility would take U$14.4m from treasury.
 We know the 2023 capex budget because the company told us in last week’s NR. That’s
U$13.3m
 Those three items total U$42.3m, well inside our estimated “real world margin” for
available revenues at ARG in 2023. That would leave around U$6m for discretionary
use, which in theory is enough for a bonus dividend of around C$0.05 per share.
However, ARG isn’t limited to my linear way of thinking. It might prefer to bolster treasury for
future project financing, or perhaps boost the regular dividend to 4c/qtr from the current 3c, or

there’s always the potential for another block share buyback. And please be clear, these
estimated figures come after a conservatively pitched model which is careful to add in extra
costs for 2023, it doesn’t give ARG any benefit from the current high moly credit prices (those
alone could add $3m per quarter to top line revenues), neither do we dare pitch the average
received copper price higher than U$4.20/lb for the whole of 2023 (16mlbs means around
$1m/qtr after DET royalties for every 10c over our assumed price, so consider what type of
bonus dividend would be available if copper moves through U$5/lb). But whatever way you cut
this cake, the model confirms ARG strategic position as we move into 2023: they have told us
that the 3c/quarter dividend is guaranteed, that the company will buy back shares aggressively,
that it has its capex budget covered and, if possible, there will be a bonus dividend payout later
in the year of any excess treasury. That position stands up to numerical scrutiny.
The bottom line: Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) has rallied well since Christmas and deservedly
so, as the copper price deck has blown through the key price levels that will allow the company
to make good on its promise to return as much capital as possible to its shareholders in the
indefinite future. Ultimately, this is the real beauty of holding ARG and loading up at the current
levels as it’s one thing to have a copper exploreco to speculate with, another to trade in a
copper producer that will benefit from improved top line revenues as copper prices move
higher, but quite another altogether to have a company that will allow as much of that money
to move through its financials and then out of treasury, directly benefiting its stakeholders in
the way which all profitable mining companies should allude.
Perhaps I should start subtracting my paid dividends from the house cost average. It would put
me down at C$1.22 and with a +33.6% result to date. Amerigo is a rare beast in the mining
sector (even though it’s now trying to call itself other things than a miner), it’s a solidly run
company with a rock solid production model and is dedicated to rewarding its long-term
investors as richly as possible. Even after its rally from the recent sub-loonie lows, this is a no-
brainer to own for quality copper exposure.
Stocks to Follow
A similar story to last weekend’s notes at this point, as in general terms this was a good week
for the Stocks to Follow list and would have been a decent paper profit if it weren’t for the loss
in Minera Alamos (MAI.v), which only dropped by 1.5c but was enough to take the edge off a
winning week. However, we still managed to book a modest paper gain and the overall list
managed to snag seven winners (ARG.to, NCAU.v, ABRA.v, CKG.v, ALDE.v, CTGO, MENE.v)
including decent moves in Mene Inc (MENE.v up 12.8%), Aldebaran (ALDE.v up 10.0%),
Newcore Gold (NCAU.v up 9.3%) and yes, one cheer for AbraSilver (ABRA.v up 7.4%),
Contango (CTGO up 7.4%) and Amerigo (ARG.to up 7.2%). There were six losers (MAI.v,
WRN.to, QCCU.v, RIO.v, ATC.v, XYZ.v) only double figure percentage loser was ATAC (ATC.v
down 15.8%) on the watchlist as the air comes out of the Snowline Gold (SGD.cse) pump. We
round out the note with the three UNCH stocks on the week (ORX.v, APN.v, MIRL.cse).
We currently have a total of 16 names on our table, four below our self-imposed maximum. Six
are in the green, one is UNCH, nine are in the red. Winston Churchill’s KBO still applies.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.45 114.3% $0.75 first tgt, #1 idea
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Amerigo Res ARG.to STR BUY C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.63 19.9% Main Cu trade, top fundies
Western Copper WRN.to BUY C$2.02 13-Nov-22 C$2.50 23.8% New trade, M&A potential
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v HOLD C$0.275 25-Apr-21 C$0.16 -41.8% MRE now due 2q23, annoying
Newcore Gold NCAU.v BUY C$0.21 23-Oct-22 C$0.295 40.5% Cheap now, MRE due Jan'23
AbraSilver Res. ABRA.v STR BUY C$0.38 4-Dec-22 C$0.365 -3.9% New trade, time to add
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v HOLD C$0.83 22-Apr-18 C$0.24 -71.1% Cheap on permit probs, appeal
8

SPECULATIVE TRADES
Orefinders ORX.v.v SPEC BUY C$0.04 23-Oct-22 C$0.04 0.0% Plan to build position at 4c
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v SPEC BUY C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$2.15 -30.0% Au leverage, small trade so far
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v BUY C$0.72 16-May-21 C$0.88 22.2% Now in its drill results season
Altiplano Metals APN.v HOLD C$0.31 17-Sep-21 C$0.145 -53.2% Cheap entry, plan on track.
Minera IRL MIRL.cse avoid C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.045 -76.9% run into ground by CEO
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
ATAC Res ATC.v WATCH C$0.095 11-Sep-22 C$0.08 -15.8% Cheap Yukon neighbour play
Contango Ore CTGO WATCH U$23.25 2-Dec-22 U$27.75 19.4% Dropping from watch list
Anacortes Mining XYZ.v WATCH C$0.49 22-Jul-22 C$0.40 -18.4% potential gold exploreco trade
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.65 6-Dec-20 C$0.485 -25.4% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2023 date closed close price
none as yet
2015 to 2022 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on just a couple of the covered companies:
Amerigo Resources (ARG.to): Continues to go well.
We do the 4q22 production numbers in the main
fundies section above, here we note the regularity of
the price move in recent weeks and move on:
Up 23.5% since the end of 2022, ARG has become a
fashionable purchase this year and its performance
ranks well among even explorecos with momentum;
check below on the Copper Basket and it would have
been in #2 position behind Faraday if included. Nice
looking chart.
Mene Inc (MENE.v): MENE rose by 12.8% on thin
volume and one of those small sticks you see on this
ten day chart was me, just enough to click my cost
average down to 65c. A minor purchase as part of the
long-term plan.
Contango Ore (CTGO): and on the subject of big
percentage raises on small volumes, a flurry of 2000 or
so shares on Tuesday popped CTGO over U$29 for a
while and after a couple of very small trades in the days
that followed, it still managed to close up 7.4% on the
week. Read into this what you will, this desk will watch
and wait for the terms of the Manh Choh financing.
ATAC Resources (ATC.v): Rather unfair to feature the price chart of a different company in a
section supposedly dedicated to the Watch-Listed ATC.v, but one of the main reasons to
consider this stock is the uptick in interest of the
specific region around its main Rackla Gold project in
the Eastern portion of the Canadian Yukon. Away from
current mines and most of the roadways, Rackla would
benefit greatly from new infrastructure being built, or
even proposed for the region on the back of the
discoveries from neighbour Snowline Gold (SGD.cse)
therefore, an eye is kept on that particular market
hotpot and promotion.
9

The recent action in SGD reflects the downsizing of expectations, as just weeks ago all talk was
of 10m oz of high-grading, surface gold as “just the beginning” at SGD and some crazy
numbers bandied about. This is par for the course at companies promo’d by Crescat Capital
(they have their fan base and audience, and know exactly what those people want to hear) and
while it doesn’t negate SGD or its prospects, the feeling of some (much needed?) realism
coming into its Valley/Rogue project is palpable.
As a watchlist candidate, there’s no need to do anything else at the moment aside from just
that, watch. We’re also aware that with several of its own properties and plans to explore in
2023, ATC is capable of generating its own news.
Aldebaran Resources (ALDE.v): The webinar event scheduled for this Tuesday January 24th
at 10.30ET is called “Aldebaran CEO Announces 2023 Work Plan” and here’s the blurb that goes
with it:
Join Aldebaran Resources' CEO, John Black, for a review of the company's 2023 work
plan. He will also be available live for an extensive Q&A following the presentation.
Register for the event on this link (7) and I’ll see you there. We may get a NR between now
and then to accompany the webinar, but that’s not a certainty as this management team has
often gone the “unofficial information” route, via drip-feeding to social media rather than
publishing official NRs. In trading ALDE popped to over 90c on Monday on thinnish volume,
then finished the week at 88c on even thinner interest (11k shares traded Friday, for example).
We haven’t had a NR from the company in over two months, which doesn’t do much to help the
market apathy.
Newcore Gold (NCAU.v): I’ve scribbed in red on this 12 month chart to show that things are
far from perfect at NCAU. The drop in 2022 was sharp and went on longer than for most peers,
the rebound so far has only go us back to the prices
last seen in July and the arrow points to a general
drop in volume, you’d want a cheap goldie with
marketing push to get at least 100k per day and
make itself a viable flip opportunity to daytraders
etc, that’s still not the case.
However, if we zoom in on the last two months of
trading to consider the rebound period and stack it
against GDXJ as a benchmark it’s difficult to
complain too much, especially as I managed to load
up at/around the 20c price point.
Painting with a broad brush, NCAU seemed to get
its tax loss selling done early and after volume
peaked at price lows in November, it responded
nicely in December and very well in 2023 to date.
All this sets us up neatly for the keenly expected
MRE from the company, due anytime soon and
once its 2m+ oz gold number is out there, CEO
Alexander and his team will be able to market the
story with muzzles off. My 35c first-stage target is
pencilled in and assuming it gets there, I’ll then
make a hold/partial sell/sell decision based on what
things look like, both in the company and in the
market. Not wedded to this trade, but no point in leaving obvious money on the table for
someone else, either.
Western Copper & Gold (WRN.to) (WRN): We finally got the overdue met results numbers
from WRN and they came in much as expected but, once again, this desk got the distinct
10

impression that the real audience for this data was Rio Tinto (RTZ) and any other big name
company with a NDA and access to the WRN data room. We got a summary of the met results
and to these non-metallurgist’s eyes, everything is in order and the results confirm the previous
parameters envisaged for Casino, a case of no news being good news. However, this NR was
never going to move the market and the slight loss on the week isn’t much of a surprise (even
though I strongly disagree with sellers).
We like WRN for its shovel-ready aspect, large size, good on-paper economics and the simple
fact that we know there’s at least one major looking to buy it out. Besides RTZ, there has
always been plenty of talk about Newmont (NEM) as a possible buyer, what with Coffee next
door and the potential to turn its relatively small gold mine project (in NEM’s terms, at least)
into a large diversified mining camp. With copper climbing and our purchase nicely timed it’s so
far so good on this trade and one to ride through 2023, or until something happens.
QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v): If only all my copper investments were as straightforward as
WRN. The NR from QCCU on Tuesday, 17th January (8) told us several new things. We learned
that (and we quote), "The data from drilling completed between November 2021 and October
2022 has now been incorporated into the geologic model”, according to VP Ex Charles Beaudry.
With that done, the company decided to embark on a three rig, 10,000m drill program that’s
targeted on some specific zones of Opemiska and, assuming success with the core, should
increase total metal content for the upcoming MRE. However, that also means that we now
need to wait for the results of this final leg of drilling, then for the company and its third-party
consultants to incorporate the findings into the block model, before we get the updated Mineral
Resources Estimate (MRE) for the project. That’s the bad news and was delivered this way:
“…the updated MRE is targeted for June 2023. While delays are possible,
management has implemented tight controls on the process to ensure timelines are
respected.”
In other words, instead of the original MRE delivery estimated for end 2022 and then the
announced delay to 1q23 (i.e. this quarter), the MRE has been pushed back another quarter
and is now going to come in around six months late. That’s a bummer and it wasn’t a surprise
to see the stock sell on the news, though thankfully there was no real rush for the door.
Personally and after exchanging my thoughts with QCCU CEO Stephen Stewart on this news, I
have mixed feelings. Yes, it’s understandable to go back to the well and do some fill-in drilling
on areas they can easily move from waste to mineralization, increase the mineralized tonnage,
drop waste tonnage and decrease theoretical strip rate. However, it’s not as if the 2022 or the
2023 campaign is going to be the last drill program in the history of QCCU at Opemiska before
a PFS appears and to delay its scheduled MRE twice is bad optics (I made that point crystal
clear to CEO Stewart, too). It’s worth repeating a general point about explorecos, this one very
much included: They don’t have a mine, they don’t have revenues, they don’t have anything
except for a story and that’s true for all of them, from the most exciting and expensive multi-
million ounce high grade UG vein gold prospect in the world to the smallest and most modest of
planned heapleachers. The value of the company depends entirely on the integrity of the story
and that means good messaging, so anything that undermines the story being told is a clear
negative and will show up in its equity. As an investor, I make allowances as and when require,
this is mining after all and not an exact science, but when a company changes the same part of
its story not once, but twice, to the detriment of shareholders, it’s a yellow flag at the least.
The bottom line: I’m going to hold QCCU into its MRE and that means it’s going to sit in my
portfolio, possibly while copper explorecos and stories around me pop and climb while this
trade sits there and does nothing for a couple of quarters. I’m here for the fundamental value
and understand that its relatively low grade only looks bad to the casual observer, as once you
run the ballpark economics there’s a lot of like about this project. However two things:
 I see no reason to add to this position in the meantime, no matter how much
“relative value” it shows to peers
 Another narrative fail from QCCU and I will sell, be that before or after the
11

upcoming MRE. There are too many opportunities in the copper space to continue
demanding that dead money delivers.
The slight delay to the MRE announced last year was in the range of acceptable, the news last
week is classed under “fool me once, shame on you” and QCCU knows this small retail owner is
annoyed. I’ll suffer this delay on my own terms, hold through and then make a continuance
decision when the MRE is published, but there are limits to anyone’s patience.
The Copper Basket
After three weeks of 2023, The Copper Basket shows a gain of 6.87% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Solaris Res SLS.to 6.44 114.56 838.58 7.32 13.7%
2 Western Copper WRN.to 2.41 151.597 378.99 2.50 3.7%
3 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.22 88.028 304.58 3.46 7.5%
4 Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to 1.92 88.713 188.96 2.13 10.9%
5 Oroco Res OCO.v 0.91 207.034 163.56 0.79 -13.2%
6 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.78 138.579 121.95 0.88 12.8%
7 Hot Chili HCH.v 0.78 119.455 107.51 0.90 15.4%
8 Regulus Res. REG.v 1.10 104.45 100.27 0.96 -12.7%
9 Faraday Copper FDY.to 0.54 123.012 97.18 0.79 46.3%
10 Pan Global Res PGZ.v 0.46 212.145 95.47 0.45 -2.2%
11 Kodiak Copper KDK.v 1.12 55.6 65.61 1.18 5.4%
12 QC Copper QCCU.v 0.165 150.736 24.12 0.16 -3.0%
13 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.16 86.966 15.22 0.175 9.4%
14 Libero Copper LBC.v 0.155 90.669 13.15 0.145 -6.5%
15 Atacama Copper ACOP.v 0.16 34.373 6.36 0.185 15.6%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg 6.87%
Week three was a mixed bag for our list, but the basket average still managed to power ahead
by the same “two and a bit” percent we saw in the first two weeks, largely due to some bigger
winners out-doing the more modest size of the average loser. There were eight winners
(SLS.to, MARI.to, ALDE.v, HCH.v, REG.v, FDY.to, LBC.v, ACOP.v) and seven losers () from our
15 component stocks with no unchanged on the week, so a fairly even split. The overall
average benefited from the big upmoves in Atacama Copper (ACOP.v up 15.6%). Faraday
Copper (FDY.to up 12.9%), Libero Copper (LBC.v up 11.5%), Aldebaran (ALDE.v up 10.0%)
and Solaris (SLS.to up 9.4%), with the only double figure loser coming from Oroco (OCO.v
down 11.2%).
Kung Hei Fat Choi and all that, the Year of the Rabbit begins today Sunday January 22nd
(supposedly, one of the luckiest years on the Chinese calendar). As such, expect business
newsflow out of the world’s largest
consumer of copper to be light for at
least a week, perhaps two. As for
copper-the-metal, it stayed healthy and
above the U$4.20/lb line all week but
tried and failed at U$4.30/lb so we
probably need new news of some type to
see the rally continue higher. Best guess
for the week ahead; flatline.
12

Today’s curated market comment comes from “WisdomTree commodity strategist Nitesh Shah”
and gives us the opportunity of running a translation into real English (9):
“It has been a very strong picture across most metals, largely due to China reopening
trade, but it will be a bumpy road,” said WisdomTree commodity strategist Nitesh
Shah.
China’s lifting of COVID-19 controls spurred optimism about a rebound in metals
demand, sending copper on a rally that peaked on Wednesday at 16% over 10
sessions.
“As we go into the Chinese New Year period, the likelihood is that COVID cases will
accelerate, and that could weigh on metals demand in the short term,” Shah said.
Translation: Nitesh Shah has no idea what happens next, however he’s guessing that copper
cannot rally forever and finding an intellectual hook on which to hang his chart freshman year
chart interpretation. For the rest of us, copper is screaming that it won’t alter trend until and
unless we get clear signals of deep recession in the works and the USA housing market slump
isn’t enough to scare off the bulls. Expect copper to continue its rally, though I will admit that
the Chinese holiday period should slow the action down for a week.
We now move to our regular weekly update on the world copper inventories with data, as ever
from Chile’s reliable beancounters at Cochilco:
 Another sharp increase in overall inventory in world’s three official systems, up 33,035
metric tonnes (mt) to close Friday at 249,542mt and once again, the difference was in
Shanghai.
 At the SHFE, stocks added 37,474mt to close at 139,967mt, which means this system
has added over 70kmt since 2023 began and is now around 100k up on its low points
of 2022. There’s copper to be had in Shanghai now, probably due to an early start to
the re-stock season what with China’s New Year coming early in our westernized
calendar this time around However and ostensibly, we need to consider this as a
potential headwind to further spot price appreciation. No conclusions to draw just yet,
watching brief only.
 However, tight copper supply continues to be the story at LME, which sees its stocks
down another 3,825mt to close Friday at 80,025mt. This is extremely tight and even
worse when one considers that it’s nearly all in just two locations, LME’s Germany and
Holland warehouses cover 72k of that 80k.
 At the Comex, copper inventories dropped by 614mt to close at 29,550mt. No biggie.
The long-term dedicated SHFE tracking chart shows the rise in stocks in 2023 beginning to gain
momentum. All eyes on where it peaks out, and when.
Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2014 to date
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
13
31'13ceD dr32 ht02 ht51 ht01 ht5tco ht03 ht52 dn22 ht71 ht21 ht6pes ts1von 102ht72ced ts12 ht71 ht21 ht7guA dn2tcO ht4ceD ht92 ht62 ts12 ht61 ht01 ht5von ts13 ht52 dn22 ht42 ht91 ht41 ht9 9102
dr3bef
ts13 ht62 ts12 ht51 ht01 0202ht5naj 0202ts1ram ht62 ts12 ht61 ht11 0202ht6ced ts13 ht82 dr32 ht81 ht21 ht7 2202dn2naj ht72 ht42 ht91 ht41 ht9 ht4ced
Mt Cu
|
source: Cochilco
Now for a few notes on some basket component stocks:
Oroco Resources (OCO.v): Down hard on no news, OCO got hit by a wave of persistent
selling as from Tuesday last week which was enough to eat through bid resistance by Thursday.

The result is a 79c stock this weekend, 13% down on the year with copper flying and a stock
price that’s threatening to revisit the July 2022 lows.
I have precisely zero idea why OCO is selling off this way, aside from the obvious “more sellers
than buyers” and the potential that whoever is liquidating isn’t done yet. Potentially victim of
the continued chatter about Mexico not granting any further permits for mining projects, as its
retail YouTube following isn’t the best informed and tends to believe what it hears, rather than
do its own DD. That’s a double-edged sword faced by all the pumped trades and while OCO
looks oversold, that can continue for a time to come. Yes, it’s now one to watch and potentially
flip once the selling is done and before its YouTube
fanclub promos it back up.
Faraday Copper (FDY.to): This stock has caught the
attention of the market nicely in the last few weeks and
last week delivered real news to help bolster its move. The
NR on Tuesday (10) reported an excellent 15m assay
grading 10.83% copper along with gold and silver by-
product kickers from one of the main targets at its Copper
Creek project in AZ USA and while at some depth, the high
sulphidation cut is at depth to the current resource breccia
pipe and, perhaps as importantly, testament to the
strength of this mineralized system. This visual
from the NR (right) shows the concept well and
that’s a genuine bonanza hit. The stock
responded by kicking higher still on volume and
added another 12.9% weekly win to an already
excellent start to 2023. FDY has the bit
between its teeth, an audience watching its
move and a great address that looks better and
better as LatAm countries deter speculators due
to politics and opposition to mining projects.
Regulus Resources (REG.v): The NR from
REG on Friday (11) announced that main
shareholder Route One had elected to use its
right of participation in any equity raising and
would buy another 2.6m shares of the company
at C$1.02, as per the terms agreed between
REG and Rio Tinto/Nuton in late December. We
assume the raising closes as per and that now takes the share count to an IKN estimated
104.45m S/O.
This makes the gross proceeds of the round C$23.1m and, along with the $15m raised from
Osisko Gold Royalties in October from the sale of the NSR, means REG is now officially flushed
for cash. REG has bitten the bullet and the dilution is now baked in, there’s treasury for two
14

complete seasons of busy drilling and as from this point, that should be considered as a
corporate advantage to this story.
Hot Chili (HCH.v): It was a Rick Rule backed pump ten years ago, it’s a Rick Rule backed
pump today and I see nothing new in this stock aside from the treasury it wants to develop its
box standard deposit. Yes it’s economic at U$4.00+/lb copper….they all are.
Monday saw HCH in Canada pop much higher on the back of the company NR announcing the
start of its 2023 drill campaign, but the real driver of the Canadian stock price remains the
market action in its main Australian ticker. Without that higher, any spike will re-trace.
Marimaca may be three times the market cap of HCH, but it’s ten times the opportunity and
impressive board and promo campaign to retail in both Canada and Australia or not, this
remains a sub-standard copper project with high hidden capex costs and an easy pass.
The Producer Basket
After 3 weeks of 2023, the Producer Basket shows a gain of 10.33% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 47.20 799 42.62 53.34 13.0%
2 Barrick GOLD 17.18 1761.54 33.42 18.97 10.4%
3 Agnico Eagle AEM 51.99 488.9 27.50 56.24 8.2%
4 Wheaton PM WPM 39.08 451.963 20.44 45.22 15.7%
5 Kinross Gold KGC 4.09 1256.1 5.93 4.72 15.4%
6 B2Gold BTG 3.57 1074.567 4.47 4.16 16.5%
7 Alamos Gold AGI 10.11 393.1 4.39 11.18 10.6%
8 Hecla Mining GFI 5.56 603.86 3.78 6.26 12.6%
9 Eldorado Gold EGO 8.36 185.73 1.70 9.16 9.6%
10 Wesdome Gold WDOFF 5.53 142.287 0.72 5.05 -8.7%
All prices and stock quotes in U$ Port. avg 10.33%
A mixed result on the week, with five winners (AEM, WPM, AGI, HL, EGO) and five losers (NEM,
GOLD, KGC, BTG, WDOFF). Most of the moves were small, then Barrick (GOLD) dropped a little
more than the median down 3.4% on its light Q4 production NR. However, the week was
marked by the heavy 14.8% WoW loss suffered by Wesdome Gold (WDOFF) on the back of its
NR on Q4 production and 2023 guidance that we expected to be bad, but not this bad. Plenty
of details on that mess below.
It’s still early in the 2023 journey and our semi-serious attempt to beat the GDX benchmark on
the year, but the decision to include Wesdome in this year’s list has put us at a severe early
handicap. Our +10.33% performance in three weeks of January may look good, but we’re a
15

long way from GDX’s +13.12% performance already. It’s not looking good and we’re going to
need plenty of help from the Metals Gods to claw this deficit back.
Barrick Gold (GOLD) (ABX.to): Not difficult to see where GOLD announced its 4q22
production number (12) on this ten-day
comparative chart with GDX. The company put a
brave face on it and ran with “Barrick Reports
Stronger Q4 Gold Production” in its title line, then
parlayed with a flowery first paragraph…
On the back of stronger Q4 production, 13%
higher than the previous quarter, preliminary
gold production for the full year of 4.14 million
ounces was approximately 1% lower than the
4.2 million ounces previously guided, while
preliminary copper production of 440 million
pounds for 2022 was in line with the guidance
range of 420 to 470 million pounds.
…but there’s no disguising a 2022 guidance miss,
however small it might be. Here’s how it presented its 2022 guidance when reporting its 3q22
on October 13th:
“Barrick remains on track to achieve 2022 production guidance, with gold expected to
be at the low end of the range and copper expected to be at the midpoint.”
The stock price was punished accordingly and, Barrick being Barrick, its weakness affected
Newmont (NEM) and the GDX complex in general on the last weak day for mining equities.
GOLD rebounded with the rest of them on Thursday and traded in-line Friday, what with the
miss being minor, but the damage was done by then.
Wesdome Gold (WDOFF) (WDO.to): The main note on WDO is in Market Watching below,
as we take extra space to develop the argument against ownership in light of a frankly horrid
4q22 production and 2023 guidance NR, out last week. Here we note in passing that the idea to
include WDO (in its WDOFF USD guise) as a component of the 2023 Producer Basket was to
help keep a close eye on the stock and its development during the year, with the view to a
potential trade at some point. Well folks, its inclusion probably means we’re going to lose the
footrace between my picks and the GDX benchmark, but I’m still pleased it’s here because it
means I won’t be able to ignore its progress and, if its fortunes begin to turn for the better, we
may be able to speculate on it later in the year. But for the time being WDO is now pure
Penalty Box fodder and untouchable as an investment alternative. See Market Watching for
more on that.
B2Gold (BTG): Post-close on Wednesday January 18th, B2Gold (BTG) (BTO.to) dropped its
4q22 production NR, which included preliminary sales data and its guidance for 2023 production
and costs. As this ten day chart mapping BTG against the GDX benchmark the news came,
went and once a brief moment of overselling at
the Thursday bell was done, the news didn’t
make much of a ripple its stock price or
trajectory. Indeed, the “this is a sleeper” call
made in IKN710 a month ago was the right one,
though BTG buyers didn’t wait to see last week’s
NR before buying up the value prices. The
reaction to last week’s strong Q4 numbers and
2023 guidance shows the move was fully baked
in.
However, that doesn’t stop the numbers reported
(13) from being impressive:
16

BTO: gold production by mine
400000
350000
300000
250000
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150000
100000
50000
0
17
91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4
oz Au Fekola prod
Otjikoto prod
Masbate prod
other
source: company filings
With the attributed ounces from Calibre (CXB.to) added, BTG reported production of 367,870 oz
Au for the quarter, making the 2022 total 1,027,874 oz Au and hitting its annual guidance quite
handily. This first chart shows Q4 news to all quarters from 2019 and the obvious stand-out is
that of Fekola production. Indeed, since
BTG’s mine in West Mali started up in
2017, its delivered at least 100k oz gold at
low cash cost every single quarter, but the
combination of efficient tonnage
throughputs and a temporary period of
bonus high grades saw Fekola produce a
cool 244,014 oz gold in the quarter.
That’s a highly impressive result and with
BTG ploughing more sustaining and
expansion capex into its major asset, its
Fekola-centric production mix is only going
to continue. This chart shows the total production against sales (there are royalty and minority
percentage ownerships to account for) and thanks mainly to Fekola, though with hat tips for
good numbers from its other producing mines mines (Masbate in the Philippines and Otjikoto in
Namibia), Q4 were record in both categories.
BTG: Gold Produced vs Gold Sold
964072 556652 446022 033202 216112 170002 162013 056682 798403 053292 563902 001591 326322 858502 610722 004922
078763
553933
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000 150000
100000
50000
0
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4
BTO: Fekola gold production, per qtr
gold produced (oz)
gold sold (oz)
source: company filings, IKN est for 4q22
As usual BTG also announced preliminary sales numbers, including average received price and
big clues toward its cash costs, in its production NR and at U$592m in top line revenues, it’s
another record.
0436
011501 241411 446211 200701 082501 943011 798311 123211 342911 110461 424741 535251 845851 880521 116311 755561 935361 846101 660321 339921
410442
250000
225000
200000
175000
150000
125000
100000 75000
50000
25000
0
71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4
Oz Au
source: company filings
BTO: Quarterly revenues
35.974
3.263 99.263
68.015 11.625
85.563 85.183 55.293
295
650
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
250 200
150
100
50
0
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 tse22q4
U$m
source: company data

All this means BTG will almost certainly report record profits when its financials drop next
month, but the price action also suggests the market was already looking beyond the last
quarter’s blowout and to the company’s 2023 guidance. This chart picks the mid-point for
guidance from its four gold producing segments the result is a 2023 target of 1,040,000 oz
gold, very much in-line with the last three years and once again, highly reliant on the good
cheer continuing at Fekola.
BTO: annual production and estimates
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
18
3102 4102 5102 6102 7102 8102 9102 0202 1202 2202 tse3202
OzAu
Fekola
Otjikoto
Masbate
Nica total
source: BTO filings, IKN ests
So a continuation of million-plus annual production that confirms BTG in its role as an
established Tier 2 player, but the company also guided for slightly higher operating cash costs
(mid-point U$700/oz) and distinctly high AISC (mid-point U$1,225/oz), with the former due to
the generalized inflation we’ve seen across the industry and the latter due to the money BTG is
ploughing into Fekola as it moves to expand throughput and annual production. There are now
rumours from sober contacts reaching this desk that say Fekola could be an 800k oz Au per
annum producer in five years’ time.
Long story short, 4q22 underscored how much BTG has riding on its star asset and, with West
Africa political risk ratcheting up due to Islamic insurgency and general government instability,
we don’t have to look much further to
understand why BTG isn’t enjoying the type of
multiple to free cash flow that the Agnicos and
Newmonts or this world currently enjoy. Its
precise location (map right) is far from the worst
in the macro-region seen, as you really do not
want to be in Central Mali or the border zone
with Burkina Faso at the moment, so that plays in
BTG’s favour but the risk perception is growing.
BTG can only do its job, keep on keeping on and
deliver financial profits to its bottom line and
shareholders and do far at Fekola, it has done a
stellar job. However, there are a lot of eggs in
one basket and a shift in geopolitical risk is all it
would take for Fekola, and the string of mines
working the same geology nearby, to become an
obvious target.
The TinyCaps List
After three weeks of 2023, the TinyCaps show a gain of 16.25% to level stakes:

company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Aurelius Min AUL.v 0.07 49.787 3.24 0.065 -7.1%
Coast Copper COCO.v 0.045 64.001 3.52 0.055 22.2%
District Metals DMX.v 0.075 86.891 11.30 0.13 73.3%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.13 69.962 10.84 0.155 7.7%
Manitou Gold MTU.v 0.02 344.568 8.61 0.025 25.0%
Nine Mile Metals NINE.cse 0.29 57.025 15.11 0.265 -8.6%
Palamina Corp PA.v 0.08 65.285 4.57 0.07 -12.5%
Precipitate Gold PRG.v 0.075 130.367 11.08 0.085 13.3%
South Star STS.v 0.55 32.755 19.00 0.58 5.5%
Viva Gold VAU.v 0.14 91.608 16.95 0.185 32.1%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 16.25%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $20m. They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a
little and allowed sub-U$20m market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, but it was a particularly depressing exercise to trawl through the whole of the TSXV and find companies
that are small enough, but with life in them. The vast majority of sub-$20m stocks are broken stocks, either
traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2023. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
A positive signal from the smallest end of the marketplace for mining companies, as our
TinyCaps list blasts higher on the back of seven week-over-week winners (AUL.v, COCO.v,
DMX.v, LMS.v, PRG.v, STS.v, VAU.v) versus two losers (NINE.v, PA.v), with just one stock
remaining unchanged (MTU.v). The winners
include big moves in Viva Gold (VAU.v up 23.3%),
Coast Copper (COCO.v up 22.2%) and District
Metals (DMX.v up 18.2%).
Latin Metals (LMS.v): The lack of traded
volume continues to be the issue at LMS, with
lumpy trades at 12c and 13c, tiny tap painters to
float it to 15 and 16c. The explroeco story behind
LMS isn’t bad, but the market moves don’t inspire
confidence for a small retail player such as I.
Coast Copper (COCO.v): The sub-5c prices
dried up last week and then COCO made a
reasonable fist of a rebound on some volume late week, mostly due to this NR (14) dated
Wednesday January 18th that announced the company had been busy re-interpreting the
historic and recent drill data at its main Empire property, Vancouver Island BC CA. Check the
link for the full story but here, we’ll go with the CEO comments as they sum things up neatly
enough:
Adam Travis, Coast Copper’s CEO comments: “Acquiring and compiling 100 years of
historical data, completing and integrating new and historical geophysical and
geochemical data, conducting our initial drill programs that confirm and expand known
mineralization and having Dr. Jim Oliver complete a geological overview has been a
long and ongoing process, but this has all led to the most significant advancement in
geological understanding of the project in its 100-year history. We have now taken Dr.
Oliver’s observations and conclusions, reviewed them in the context of both our data
and the historical data and have developed a multiple, stacked thrust geological model
19

that explains the known mineralization and more importantly provides many new target
areas for us to explore. We look forward to getting back on the property this year to
drill test our new model.”
In other words, they now think they have a new
handle on the rocks and, after a disappointing
start to exploration on the property, they’re going
to drill again with a new strategy. If it bears fruit
and “unlocks the mineralization” (as they say),
COCO may be a phoenix story. Worth watching as
2023 rolls out, good to have on the TinyCaps list.
District Metals (DMX.v): DMX continues its
move on momentum and market buzz, we’ve
managed to catch one of those early year
springers in this year’s list. Repeating last
weekend’s line; if you own, don’t be afraid of taking at least some money off the table and
riding the rest cheaply.
Palamina Corp (PA.v): Suddenly, Palamina is caught in the wrong geopolitical zone to do
business and the protests out of Peru in the last few days, specifically those in the southern
macro-region and near to the locality of its concessions in Puno, mean it’s not in good shape to
move forward with its plans until the atmosphere cools and tempers die down. In a brief
conversation last week, CEO Andrew Thomson told me that PA would likely put its 2023 budget
and development plans on ice for one quarter, then check the pulse and see whether it could
do fruitful work. It these troubles coincide with the worst months of the rainy season, they may
not miss out on too much of the 2023 program and overall, it’s a wise decision to suspend the
program temporarily and wait things out.
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future
I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
Chile rejects Dominga
The story of the Dominga mine project in Chile its attempts to get its permits date back over a
decade and include a somewhat scandalous episode between 2017 and 2019, when family
members of then-President Sebastian Piñera (likely fronting for the man himself) were under
payment to lobby for the owners, Andes Iron, with the main payment conditional on the
government not designating the zone around the project as an official nature reserve (despite
the coastal area being home to 80% of the world’s population of the Humboldt Penguin).
Suffice to say this has always been a highly controversial project, so when a final legal appeals
process ran through the Coquimbo region and was handed to the national government in May
2022, it was widely assumed that the project would not be awarded its permits on appeal even
if the current government weren’t left wing and hotter on environmental issues than those that
came before it. Therefore and after the requisite investigation process that lasted around eight
months, when the case came up to the final appeals board, the “Comite de Ministros” headed
by Environment Minister Maisa Rojas, the unanimous vote of all committee members against
the project (including the mining minister) was zero surprise.
The vote result last week caused another round of “Lefties refusing mining projects” talk in our
sector, but it shouldn’t have done so (and didn’t among those who follow Chile closely enough).
Instead, the news was fully expected and also gives us a rough idea of how long the next big
Comite de Ministros appeals processes should take. The big one on the horizon will be the
Anglo American Los Bronces expansion project, with a capex ticket of U$3Bn and an important
investment project for the country in the copper space. If that project is rejected then yes,
20

politics would send a negative signal to the world and it’s also one this desk will watch carefully,
as Los Bronces is the one that will set a true precedent for the Rio2 Fenix appeals process,
which is one behind Los Bronces in the queue.
Finally and before leaving the subject of Chile, for reasons other than the mining sector and
connected with the political comings and goings of the country, rumours are growing this
weekend that President Gabriel Boric will soon be forced into another cabinet re-shuffle and top
of the list of targets is the hard left wing minister, Camilla Vallejo. If she is ousted from her post
and replaced by a more centrist figure, the message will reverberate around the whole of the
country and its business community.
Peru’s protest marches go largely as expected and the country goes further downhill
This note is a follow-up from last weekend’s extended piece(s) on Peru’s current political mess
ands what might be an even worse future. Since IKN713 the protests got world attention, the
scenes from Peru last week made international news and for the most part, the images weren’t
pretty. We saw more protest marches, more roadblocks and confrontations with police and
forces of order, some half-hearted attempted to invade a couple of provincial airports (easily
defended by government uniforms) and in a few outlaying provincial towns, some headline
grabbing arson attacks on small-ish government buildings that looked bad but were ultimately
small potatoes and often as much connected with long-term local gripes than with the topical
protests against the national government and Congress. This weekend the temperature has
dropped in Lima (figurately not literally, it’s high summer and I’m typing in shorts) and while
the days ahead may see some more marches, the police crackdown has largely worked the way
authorities wanted and the protests will not be of the same intensity. However, Peru’s provinces
remain on high alert and we should expect more roadblocks, more marches and more clashes
with the law and order forces (police and army). As per this Sunday evening and with most
hotspots in the South of the country, there are still hundreds of roadblocks in place and in
some, trucks and other vehicles have been stuck for over two weeks.
The main event last week were the marches in Peru’s capital Lima, with busloads of students
and left wing militants brought in from the provinces to join local protesters. The resulting
marches were strongly policed and while there were a few flashpoints of violence and a couple
of episodes of stupidity on either side (e.g. the fire that broke out in a residential building
during the protests was almost certainly set off by a stray police tear gas canister, rather than
protesters or vandals), the marches mostly went off without too much happening and the
atmosphere in the capital has already calmed and far fewer participants in marches yesterday
Saturday evening. However, these marches made for good TV and the world watched on as the
“Close Everything Boot Them All Out” protests had their say. As for the government response,
President Dina Boluarte appeared on TV in a live address on Thursday evening, put on her best
authoritarian face, blamed all disturbances on vandals and criminals, made the thuggish police
force out to be veritable saints, then called on all sides to sit down for peaceful talks. In other
words she hasn’t budged an inch and the protests haven’t changed the government’s or
Congressional position in any way, shape or form. Therefore, expect the seething resentment in
the provinces of Peru toward its government figures to continue and as such, protests,
blockades and so forth are likely to rumble on all through 2023 to a greater or lesser extent. As
for the political leanings of the new executive, please erase from your brain any thoughts of the
current lot being left wingers; President Boluarte’s hardline “we are not to blame and you are
extremist” attitude couldn’t be further away from the left wing Perú Libre party she used to
become Vice-President under Castillo and, as she is being supported in her position by the
equally hated Congress, this week has only strengthened her grip on the new job; she said and
did all the things required of her by Lima’s ruling classes, the status quo lives on. Politically, we
now await the likely next major moment in mid-February when Congress is supposed to ratify
the proposed timetable for new elections in April 2024 but from now to then, the noise should
continue against her government but at a lower volume (and mostly in the provinces, where
world TV lenses tend not to venture). The headline-grabbing marches in the capital are duly
petering out but expect more upsets and trouble from provincial Peru, including cities on strike
and roadblocks here and there. As for our focus sector of mining, trouble also beckons. Large
21

mines are one of the few targets these regional protesters have that get the attention of the
national government, what with them being a major source of the country’s Dollars, so
blockades of the mining corridor and other incidents such as this weekend’s invasion of the
Glencore-owned Antapaccay mine are likely and may be announced, suspended, re-started and
negotiated away from time to time as the year rolls out. The target list is “any mine in the
South”, so Las Bambas for sure, perhaps HudBay’s Constancia, Cerro Verde, Southern Peru at
Cuajone and Toquepala, Anglo at Quellaveco, Fortuna Silver at Bateas, Hochschild mines,
Buenaventura mines, etc and the list continues. Plus, of course, the likelihood of roadblocks on
the Mining Corridor that stop copper concentrate from reaching coastal ports.
All this plays into the hands of the feature personality from IKN713 last weekend, Antauro
Humala. In fact it was interesting to see specific protest groups and associations of
indigenous/provincial peoples rights involved in the protests last week tailor their declarations
and demands to bring them into line with that of Antauro. When previously, these groups
demanded the closing of Congress, the resignation of Dina Boluarte and the release of Pedro
Castillo from jail (and some with his restitution to President, Peru’s national daily La Republica
noticed how these days, the specific demands about Castillo have been quietly dropped (15).
That happens to be the exact policy line promoted by Antauro these days and as the year gets
old and presidential elections begin to loom, watch out for more mention of his name. I cannot
underscore how bad this man would be for Peru and even if he doesn’t make it to the Biog Job
on his first attempt, any rise to political power should be considered a red flag on the country
and its future. The last thing Peru needs is a caudillo figure with a populist message to incite
violence and mob rule.
The bottom line: Expect the noise to drop somewhat in the days ahead, but none of the
underlying problems in Peru have been addressed and the country is now set for period of
decadence in 2023 as its hated Congress drags on. We’ll then move into a election campaign
period and it’s around then that people on the outside looking in will really start to worry about
the FDI embedded in the country, because the likelihood of a hardline leader such as Antauro
showing well is increasing by the week. At some point in the medium-term Peru as a
destination for mining FDI will improve, but I cannot see that happening in 2023.
Ecuador does Davos
A successful figure from Ecuador’s banking world and a millionaire in his own right from the
private sector, President Guillermo Lasso of Ecuador wasn’t going to miss rubbing shoulders at
The World Economics Forum in Davos last week. Rather than mix into his more general
speeches and statements, we’ll move straight to his comments on the country’s mining industry
and unsurprisingly, his message was pro-business and used the most convenient pro-
environmental angle he could find to back it up.
When asked about mining, Lasso placed his “pro-formal mining, anti-illegal mining” card as
forcefully as possible. Unsurprising of course that a President is against something illegal, but
he used it to push forward his pro-environment message to the audience and did it like this
(16) (translated):
“I want to say to the world’s mining companies that this government supports legal
mining and with great force will combat illegal mining, which affects the environment,
does not respect workers’ rights and what’s more, are vehicles for money laundering
(from narcotrafficking).”
“We will support and boost investment in sustainable mining, which works in
coordination and in a peaceful way with the communities in which these mining
activities are developed, and with prestigious and recognized (mining) companies that
are respectful to workers’ rights.”
In welcoming the world’s mining companies to Ecuador, he forgot to mention his deal with
indigenous locals under CONAIE to declare a moratorium on all new mining concession until
such time as there was a new law that regulated and ratified community rights to “prior
consultation” to projects. He didn’t mention the new conflict brewing between his government
and CONAIE about his plans to protect mining concessions with army personnel, either. And it
22

must have slipped his mind that opposition groups to mining make it clear they want no sort of
mining at all in their indigenous territories, be it “illegal” or sanctioned by the national
government.
Colombia does Davos
Colombia also took Davos seriously, as its newly installed Left wing government sent
representatives including President Gustavo Petro himself, along with key many key cabinet
ministers including the ones that most matter to these pages, Minister of the Environment
Susan Muhamad and Mining and Energy Minister Irene Vélez. Ms. Vélez told the audience there
what we know already, that there would be no new hydrocarbons concessions awarded in the
country and that Colombia under Petro plans to become a model for sustainable energy.
President Petro reiterated that message and between them they got the headlines when
Colombia was the subject but as noted above, this is not new news for people watching.
Instead it was left to Environment Minister Muhamad to offer cliues to what happens next in the
country’s mining scene. The current hot topic is the AngloGold Ashanti Quebradona project in
Jericó region of Antioquia, West Colombia, as it was singled out by Petro in his speech a few
days ago (see IKN713 last week). When reporters asked Ms Muhamad for comments on the
mining scene in Colombia, she used Quebradona as her example but cast her net wider when
replying (translated) (17):
“After the mining disorder of the Mining Law under the previous government (of Ivan
Duque), that unfortunately gave out mining concessions as if the Ministry of Mines
were somewhat different from the rest of the environmental rules, (awarding
concessions) left right and centre and all over the country. Due to this the Supreme
Court ordered us via a ruling in August last year to bring order to the territory.
In this process, the minister is undertaking “a rigorous examination of many zones that
have caused a lot of social and environmental controversy. One of those zones is
Jericó and Támesis, not only because there’s a much greater issue of the vocation of
communities want for their territory, but also there are social and environmental assets
there and we need to decide what we want to do with these regions.”
We know the Petro executive is about to send its law project to Congress to update the
country’s mining law and potentially block mining activity in environmentally sensitive regions of
the country (and As I watch Aris Mining (ARIS.to) run to over C$4, it is becoming a real
shorting candidate on the upcoming bad news it’s bound to suffer). We await showtime in the
Colombia mining sector, meanwhile the call remains “hard avoid” on this country under Petro.
Argentina’s record year for metals exports
Friday saw Argentina’s Mining Secretary announce (18) the 2022 export numbers for mining in
Argentina, with total mining exports reaching U$3.857Bn, that’s up 19% Year-over-Year (YoY)
and the best single year in dollar terms since 2012. While gold (56% of total) and silver (21%
of total) retained their traditional place at the top of the pile, the big change came with lithium
exports, which improved by 234% YoY and at U$696M, account for 18% of total.
Overall, mining exports represents 4.4% of total exports from Argentina last year and while
metals have a long way to go to catch up to the big numbers returned by its agro sectors
(soybeans, grains, beef, etc), it was a big year for mining in the country and fruit of the new
attitude now taking over. Whoever wins the national Presidential election is obund to continue
promoting the mining sector along the same lines.
Market Watching
Orezone (ORE.to) continues to offer trade potential
Is Orezone (ORE.to) the new obsession stock for Market Watching, taking over the mantle from
Wesdome? Quite possibly, because the way last week panned out further underscored its near-
term trade potential and opportunity for a profitable fliptrade, In last weekend’s brief update
23

note, we mentioned the potential for Ore to come under selling pressure due to a rather odd
hitpiece published by Crux Investor on the stock, which got several assumptions and inputs
wrong on the way to calling the company a sell. While I agree its political risk is much higher
than the company would like us to believe (the main reason this isn’t a long-term hold
candidate in my opinion), recent news has the mine starting well and we got more positives last
week in its NR published Wednesday, January 18th (19) that gave us its guidance for 2023
production and costs. The company provided plenty of details in the extended NR as well as an
update on the delayed solar power project (lawyers are now involved), but essentially the
information required by us on the outside was given in the brief second paragraph, top of the
shop:
For 2023, the Company forecasts gold production in the range of 140,000 to 155,000
ounces at an all-in sustaining costs1 (“AISC”) of $975 to $1,075 per ounce sold.
Capital expenditures are expected to total between $43 to $49 million as the Company
invests in growth projects to improve the future cost structure and mine life of the
Bomboré operation.
They give us a production number, they give us an AISC range that sounds reasonable (with
lower AISC in the first half of the year as the early higher grade gets processed) and they give
us a capex number (sustaining or capital? A detail these days), so it’s not difficult to run some
numbers and even if we pitch things reasonably conservatively and assume 150k oz at a margin
to AISC of U$700/oz, that’s U$105m for a company that’s currently valued at U$356m.
We also know from the company’s 4q22 production NR that ORE had (we quote), “(g)old sales
of 24,676 oz at an average realized price of US$1,760 per oz resulting in sales proceeds of
US$43.4 million.” That takes the edge off its potential cash crunch issues we mentioned
previously. After taking the Q4 sales and FY23 guidance information into consideration and
sticking a finger in the air, these charts lay out how we model ORE under conservative financial
circumstances (i.e. leaving plenty of surprises to the upside).
ORE.to: Assets
300
275
250
225 200
175
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
The major issue ORE faces is its current liabilities stack and we expect ORE to pay down its
debts as quickly as possible. There is a possibility that due to payment delays, may need some
cash to get through the next few weeks but I’d now call that unlikely and don’t’ expect the
company to need more financing. These next charts show how our conservative model runs
through the balance sheet and by 3q23, working capital should be back in the green and all
cash flow issues disappear (and frankly, that could happen by Q2).
24
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 tse22q4 tse32q1 tse32q2
$m ORE.to: Liabilities per qtr
200
180
160
fixed 140 other current
cash 120
100
80
60
40
20
0
source: company filings, IKN ests
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 tse22q4 tse32q1 tse32q2
source: company filings, IKN ests
srallod
fo
snoillim
LT liabs
current liabs
ORE.to: Cash treasury per qtr
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 tse22q4 tse32q1 tse32q2
source: company filings/IKN ests
srallod
fo
snoillim
ORE.to: Working Capital per qtr
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 tse22q4 tse32q1 tse32q2
source company filings, IKN ests
srallod
fo
snoillim

With 344m shares out and a management that’s been keen on keeping a lid on that count (and
they have been making insider purchases on the open market), the aforementioned U$356m
market cap this weekend looks good compared to the projected cash flow, even with the 2023
capex backed out.
ORE.to: Shares Out
25
83.312 51.152 51.152 26.252 56.252
39.223 35.323 35.323 9.323 41.523 233 27.333
37.333
443
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 tse22q4 tse32q1
source: company filings/IKN ests
serahs
fo
snoillim
While considering the Crux Investor short report, last weekend in IKN713 I wrote, “…if it causes
ORE to sell off in the next 48 hours, consider it a
potential to take a second bite at the apple.” In fact
the low point came on Wednesday and after 72
hours, but the principle is the same and that was a
good entry point for those that bite twice at fruit.
Last week was the real bargain but it’s still buyable
and gold price willing, I think ORE has more in the
tank than the current C$1.40-ish and given the
prospects of U$2k/oz gold now in the cards, traders
should aim to flip this at a minimum of +20% cost
average.
Keeping an eye on Goldshore Resources (GSHR.v)
Subject of a swift and profitable flip in November last year, in IKN706 dated November 27th we
considered the potential to re-buy and try for another round trip on Goldshore Resources
(GSHR.v) and its Moss Lake project in Canada,
but decided to pass. At first (IKN707) that
looked to be the wrong decision, but since then
GSHR has gone rather quiet again (chart right).
Back in IKN706 I mused on the thought of a re-
buy if GSHR dropped back, with the proviso
that “…the price would have to be a real
bargain again, perhaps under 20c would get my
attention.” Since then GSHR has run a
medium-sized placement at 25c (with a half
warrant at 40c) and this weekend, has an IKN
estimated treasury position of C$4m. That’s
enough to get on with its 2023 plans but not
enough to prevent talk of another placement in
the near future, which is probably what’s been weighing this stock price down (and the fact
there was no 121 hold on the December placements, which helps explain the recent volume
pop). And a final point, be aware that the cash strapped Wesdome (WDO.to) owns a large
chunk of this company (it was the vendor of Moss Lake) and though WDO is apparently in for
the long-term, that may change if they decide to batten down their own hatches and improve
corporate treasury via non-core liquidations.

At 25c or so it’s a reasonable deal, but not one that will get me to hit the button. In this
market, I’m looking for the real bargains and that would still be 20c or below, a possible
number if/when GSHR goes back to market and raises some more. However I am watching, as
it’s a heavily marketed story (with its high traffic bagholders to boot) and as we saw on
November, has a strategy that sometimes brings in less experienced participants all at the same
time (the most diplomatic way I could possibly phrase that).
Wesdome Gold (WDO.to) (WDOFF) in a tough spot
Here’s a ten-day chart of the Wesdome’s OTC ticker, WDOFF, take a guess when the company’s
4q22 production NR (20) dropped:
If you guess “post close on Tuesday January 17th, give yourself a bonus point. As for the
content of the NR, let’s begin with the CEO comment, “2022 was a challenging…”, and stop
right there. If the fourth word of the CEO comment is “the C Word”, things are not good and
while we knew the first three quarters of 2022 weren’t sparkling, it’s best not to lump Q4 into
the messaging. So, here’s a relevant snippet about Eagle River’s Q4…
“Production in Q4 2022 was below expectations as a result of the planned higher
grades at the Falcon Zone slipping into Q1 2023, partially due to severe snowstorms
hindering our ability to truck the high-grade ore to the mill.”
…and here’s a representative comment on Q4 at Kiena:
“At Kiena, supply chain delays unfortunately put us approximately six months behind
schedule on our original commercial production date, and 9 – 12 months behind on
ramp development, thereby limiting mining operations to lower grade areas of the
mine.”
Therefore we have two aspects of this train wreck NR to cover, firstly a look at 4q22 and its
implications for WDO’s financials and secondly, the new and lower range of guidance for 2023
(and thoughts of what it might mean for 2024).
So first up we consider 4q22 and after confirming its (previously lowered) 2022 guidance during
its 3q22 results period, we guesstimated WDO had to produce 44,500 oz gold in the period in
order to make guidance (and sell 40k oz of them). We thought it possible with 28k oz from
Eagle River, 500oz from the satellite Mishi open pit operation (which is processed at the same
Eagle mill), then 16k oz from Kiena. Instead, we got…
WDO: Gold prod/qtr
26
71142 91391 76691 69312
63892
12632 76242 43391 65771 50471 20552
45000
40000
35000
16929 30000 9614
5511
25000
5112 8914
20000 5208
15000
10000
5000
0
02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4
Ozt Au
Kiena
Mishi
Eagle River
source: WDO filings

…25,502 oz from Eagle UG, zero from Mishi (they dedicated the mill to Eagle UG 100%), then
9,614 oz from Kiena. That’s a lot lower than the required level and as a result, the 110,850 oz
gold produced in the year missed guidance by 9,150oz. Not good. We know Q4 sales numbers…
WDO: Gold production vs sales, per qtr
27
22152 00562 34152 04132 80002 00712 60002 09891 56522 75422 57303 00582 44392 00003
95514
44573 11652 00082 04272 00062 38822 00572 61153 00513
50000
45000
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000 15000
10000
5000
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4
Ozt Au
Production
Sales
source: company filings
…and we know average received price and therefore, the estimated C$74m in top line
revenues. With Kiena ramping up (in tonnages at least) operating costs are set to rise
somewhat and as a result, we estimate operating earnings for the quarter at C$4m.
WDO.to: Operations overview chart
219.72 522.82
385.51
975.1
955.3-
4
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 tse22q4
C$m
revenues
total op expenses
Op earnings
source: company filings, IKN calcs
That’s little more than breakeven and means WDO is a long way from generating the type of
cash flow required to improve its cash and working capital position. We know that in the last
quarter of 2022 the company expanded its revolving credit facility to $150m and that it enacted
an ATM share sales policy, allowing its designated broker to sell treasury shares into the open
market to a maximum of $100m. It’s now patently clear why WDO and CEO Middlemiss made
those corporate moves as, with Kiena up to nine months behind schedule, aside from the
current balance sheet shortfall WDO estimates it needs to spend $100m in sustaining and
development capital at its two mines in 2023 ($58m Kiena, $42m Eagle).
We’ll know more about its balance sheet position when the company reports its YE financials on
February 22nd (post close) and there are several variables to consider. WDO needs to balance a
treasury that requires day-to-day corporate liquidity, capital requirements for its mines and the
depth to which it taps its expanded credit facility. In and amongst those is the ATM share
facility and we won’t know how many shares have been add to the S/O total until reporting day,
but to give an idea of the state of play, here’s our current best guess estimate of the working
capital position presently and into the next three quarters assuming zero new shares are sold
into the open market:
80 WDO.to: Working Capital per qtr
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 tse22q4 tse32q1 tse32q2 tse32q3
source company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim

If WDO dilutes its current 142.5m S/O by a few million and raises cash that way, the above
chart won’t see things dip as badly into the red. It’s difficult to second-guess the exact current
situation and the strategy WDO will use going though 2023 at this point (and hey, the gold
price will be a big factor as well) but we do know that either way, the pressure will be on its
equity.
Returning to its production criteria, this time last year WDO promised a combined guidance of
between 160,000oz and 180,000oz, with 96k to 107k from Eagle River complex (i.e. Eagle UG
and Mishi combined), then between 64,000oz and 73,000oz from Kiena. As 2022 rolled out and
the issues already factored into its price action last year became apparent, that guidance
dropped to 86koz to 97koz from Eagle River Complex, then a substantially lower 34koz – 43koz
from Kiena, for a consolidated guidance of 120k to 140k.
WDO: Gold production per year
Oz Au
160000
140000
120000 20000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023e
source: company data
As noted above, reality was a miss at 110,850oz and the knock-on effects are also seen in the
new 2023 guidance figures of minimum 110k and maximum 130k for the year. This was
supposed to be the year when WDO started to knock on the door of its promise to be a 200k oz
yearly producer, so even the upper end of guidance is a long way from that.
The 2023 guidance consists of 80k to 90k from Eagle River (once upon a time 25k quarters
were being framed as minimum for the future, we don’t even get that) and 30k to 40k from
Kiena. The issue at its new mine is the delay in deeper stope development, which means Kiena
will be running almost exclusively from the lower grades found in the upper levels of the mine
(that haven’t been mined out in previous operating periods). WDO now expects to access and
bring the high grade Kiena Deeps material online in 2024 and, as a result, its previously
expected 65,000 oz guidance for 2023 dropped by up to a half. It also means operating cash
cost will be far from its previous projected $380/oz levels so, while still expected to be a
profitable operation on a standalone basis, Kiena will not generate the funds required to finish
its capex build-out.
Summing up and trying to be as fair as possible, WDO’s disappointing 4q22 was half expected,
considering the way it had been trading into last week. We also knew it was taking out new
lines of financing for good reasons and not just for show. But the 2023 guidance and
announcements of further delays at Kiena, along with the glitchy sounding issues at the new
Falcon zone at Eagle, made for a particularly bad 2023 guidance. If it were only that, there may
be a case for buying these current low levels and building a position through 2023, with a view
to making good on the trade once WDO is over its hump in 2024. However, there are too many
unknowns at this point even to be confident about that strategy. Examples:
 Will Kiena be able to feed its mill with high grade deep muck as from 2024? This is the third
delay to its Kiena plans in the last 12 months, two of them officially announced, so what’s
stopping WDO from bringing another dose of bad news to market about Kiena later on this
year? Underground mining is not easy, even for the nest of them and while nobody doubts
the professionalism and experience of CEO Middlemiss and his team, it doesn’t take much
searching to find recent examples of Canadian operations coming a cropper after promising
one thing from their new UG stopes and delivering a lot less. There’s going to be substantive
28

doubts about Kiena being able to deliver on its promises right up to and including the
quarter when it does. That means a real question mark will hang over the mine all through
2023.
 Will WDO hit a cash crunch? Will its weak balance sheet cause a delay to its budgeted capex
works? How many shares out will WDO have come end 1q23? Or 2q23? The opportunities
for dilution and cash issues abound and the more opaque the financial model, the less
confidence there is behind any price target call.
The current U$5 and bits prices may seem cheap compared to those of just a year ago, but
there’s no reason why they have to hold at this level and it would only take one more
operational glitch (Middlemiss was already “partially” blaming low Q4 Eagle production on
snowfall…in Canada?…in winter? Who knew?) or funding problem or supply chain delay to set
back the current plans even further. And to underscore, any more glitches at Kiena, no matter
whether they are related to the Deeps development or not, will get the market wondering
whether WDO’s grand development scheme and the money it has sunk into the asset is going
to have any return at all. So the bottom line to WDO today is AVOID and it’s an easy one
to make for a person such as I, willing to take a certain amount of risk on a turnaround
situation but not when it starts to feel like outright gambling. Those of you with higher risk
tolerance and enough patience are free to disagree with me but even then, I’d strongly suggest
there are other stocks that provide a better reward potential to the inherent risks of a trade in
WDO today.
Adding to AbraSilver (ABRA.v) but deferring the analysis note
My plan this weekend was to make some extended comments on ABRA and its latest drill
results, which along with the lack of rally in the share price have caused me to decide to add to
my position next week. However and after due consideration, I’m deferring my thoughts on
ABRA until next week. The reason is simple, I’m too dumb on the stock to comment today. Or
put in anal yst speak, I don’t feel as though I’ve done enough background on the stock
compared to fully explain the thrust of my argument. So next week for an update report on
ABRA, but rest assured I’m adding to my position in the meantime.
Conclusion
IKN714 is done, we end with bullet points:
 Another issue in which I manage to avoid mentioning Top Pick Minera Alamos (MAI.v)
with great skill and aplomb. The situation needs addressing sooner rather than later,
though, once we have Q4 news and a roadmap for 2023 from the company, we’ll be all
over this story again. I care, it’s my biggest position.
 Amerigo (ARG.to) returned exactly the type of Q4 expected and guided in correct style
for 2023. All in order, now it goes higher with copper.
29

 For the time being, Wesdome (WDO.to) is now off the table as a potential trade even
as we continue to watch its progress (or lack of) closely. On the other hand, the value
in AbraSilver is now close to compelling, silver or not. Adding this week.
 Be long copper and avoid Colombia.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stock is Minera Alamos (MAI.v). Flash
updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best wishes, Mark
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2023/1/18/us-retail-sales-fall-more-than-expected-in-december
(2) https://www.reuters.com/markets/emerging/investors-snap-up-record-39-bln-emerging-market-sovereign-bond-
splurge-2023-01-13/
(3) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-19/global-bond-sales-surge-to-record-start-of-year-at-586-billion
(4) https://finance.yahoo.com/news/investors-pour-money-emerging-market-230000559.html
(5) http://www.amerigoresources.com/_resources/news/nr-20230117.pdf
(6) https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/molybden
(7) https://6ix.com/event/aldebaran-ceo-announces-2023-work-plan
(8) https://qccopper.com/news/qc-copper-starts-final-leg-of-drilling-updates-on-mineral-resource-estimate-and-
economic-studies/
(9) https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/metals-copper-dips-on-recession-and-chinese-demand-fears
(10) https://faradaycopper.com/news-releases/faraday-copper-reports-15-metres-at-10-83-copper-4912/
(11) https://regulusresources.com/news/2023/regulus-announces-upsizing-of-private-placement-to-c-23.1-million/
(12) https://www.barrick.com/English/news/news-details/2023/barrick-reports-stronger-q4-gold-production/default.aspx
(13) https://www.b2gold.com/news/2023/b2gold-reports-total-gold-production-for-q4-2022-of-367870-oz-a-quarterly-
record-for-b2gold-total-gold-production-for-fy-2022-of-1027874-oz-at-the-upper-half-of-2022-guidance-2023-total-gold-
production-guidance-of-1000000-to-1080
(14) https://coastcoppercorp.com/news-releases/coast-coppers-new-geological-model-targets-near-surface-multiple-
stacked-thrust-horizons-over-1-km-x-5-km-area/
(15) https://larepublica.pe/politica/pedro-castillo/2023/01/21/dina-boluarte-organizaciones-sociales-que-rechazan-el-
gobierno-de-dina-boluarte-ya-no-piden-libertad-de-pedro-castillo-paro-nacional-marcha-en-lima/
(16) https://www.infobae.com/america/agencias/2023/01/19/lasso-llama-a-empresas-mineras-a-invertir-y-dice-que-
combatira-mineria-ilegal/
(17) https://cambiocolombia.com/economia/la-ministra-de-ambiente-el-gobierno-anterior-repartio-titulos-
mineros-diestra-y-siniestra
(18) http://spanish.china.org.cn/economic/txt/2023-01/21/content_85070691.htm
(19) https://orezone.com/en/news/press-releases/orezone-provides-2023-production-and-costs-guidance/
(20) https://www.wesdome.com/English/investors/latest-news/news-details/2023/Wesdome-Announces-Fourth-Quarter-
and-Full-Year-2022-Production-Results-Provides-2023-Guidance/default.aspx
30

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2022
Closed in 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
Goldshore Res GSHR.v Nov'22 C$0.18 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 88.9% Quick profit taken
Palamina Corp PA.v Dec'22 C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.08 -72.9% Clear-out of underperformer
Pure Gold PGM.h Dec'22 C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.015 -89.3% tiny trade on vh risk, went Ch11
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Set-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
31

Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
32

Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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