IKN #713Premium

The IKN Weekly
Week 713, January 15th 2023
Contents
This Week: In Today’s Edition, MLK Day, A bullish move in gold.
Fundamental Analysis: Three underperformers from the Stocks to Follow list.
Stocks to Follow: Newcore Gold (NCAU.v), Amerigo Resources (ARG.to), Chesapeake Gold
(CKG.v), Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v), Minera IRL (MIRL.cse), Contango Ore (CTGO).
Copper Basket: Overview, Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.v), Faraday Copper (FDY.to), Regulus
Resources (REG.v).
Producer Basket: Overview, Wesdome Gold (WDO.to) (WDOFF), Alamos Gold (AGI) (AGI.to),
B2Gold (BTG).
TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Nine Mile (NINE.cse), District (DMX.v), South Star (STS.v).
Regional Politics: Peru is going downhill fast, Peru: Antauro Humala is a clear danger to FDI,
Colombia: President Petro’s latest warning shot, Investment in Global, LatAm and Chile mining
exploration on the rise, Brazil: The fall-out from last weekend’s right wing insurrection, Ecuador:
CONAIE states its position on mining.
Market Watching: Orezone (ORE.to) quick update.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
In Today’s Edition
 Last week saw strongly bullish action in metals but in general terms, the moves in gold,
copper and others were not reflected in the type of positive leverage you’d expect from
the metals miners. We consider gold in the intro, copper in its dedicated section and
our eyes fix on what might be to come, rather than the just gone.
 It is best to avoid any self-congratulation over the strong start to the year. The winners
can look after themselves, we need to worry about the main under-performers on the
Stocks to Follow list, reasons behind their laggardly recent performance and a roadmap
of what to do about the trades if the drudge continues. That’s MAI, ABRA and QCCU
under the magnifying glass in today’s main fundies section
 Regional Politics goes into detail on the unfolding mess in Peru and , for the first time
on these pages, gives an outline of a dark cloud on the country’s horizon. That’s
Antauro Humala, a populist hardline politico whose stars are now aligning for a tilt at
his great ambition; to be voted in as the next President of the country. If it happens,
there will be no saving the place. We also consider the latest mining negative news out
of Colombia and Ecuador, as well as report on a study from Chile’s Cochilco on where
exploration dollars are being spent in the mining industry.
 With a batch of significant Q4 production numbers about to be reported by companies
either under present coverage (e.g. Minera Alamos, Amerigo, etc), resource estimates
due from explorecos of interest (Newcore, QC Copper, etc) or those under
consideration (e.g. Wesdome, B2Gold, etc), this week’s edition is likely to be the last in
which your author gets away with not doing a whole bunch of number-crunching.
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These “strategy type” issues are well and good and useful to set the scene for the year,
I suppose, but the it’s time to scratch a few itches and find places to deploy some
treasury cash. The macro backdrop is panning out nicely, but trades are also required.
MLK Day
A brief reminder that tomorrow, Monday January 16th, is Martin Luther King Jr. Day in The USA
and consequently, US stock markets are closed. Canadian markets are open as usual, however.
A bullish move in gold
In the intro last weekend, we noted how gold had played its AntiDollar role “in fine style in
recent weeks, with the classic mirror image to the moves in the USD that bullion, in its role as
portfolio anchor and safe haven, is wont to do. However, there’s something new to report this
weekend:
It was all so far so normal up to the US CPI reading on Thursday morning (see the heartbeat
blip in the chart above), but once the +6.5% reading, as predicted by most channels and in-line
with our estimates from last weekend, was in the books we saw a distinct acceleration in gold’s
appreciation. With bullion now up almost 5% in the first two weeks of 2023 and the US Dollar
down by around 1.5%, there’s more than just the AntiDollar trade going on now.
Hardcore goldbugs and proponents of Hard Money will reach their own conclusion of impending
financial Armageddon and so forth, it would hardly be the first time. However and equally,
those that pooh-pooh gold as a modern investment medium are prone to ignoring those
moments when bullion out-performs its monetary peers and even if they condescend to
comment, will often put it down to market noise, the random walk of the market or plain sheer
luck. The truth is likely in between and this desk believes “The Fear Trade” is now in operation
as we have the main ingredients:
1) Negative real interest rates: The combo of high inflation and a Fed that just baked in 0.25%
rise at the next FOMC, thereby hitting the brakes on its sharp rate rises sooner rather than
later, says the window for a more extended period of negative rates is opening. If, as many
(including this desk) suspect, we then go through a stagflation period instead of plain vanilla
recession, that negative rates period should extend even further. All good for gold
2) A weakening US Dollar: A product of the slowdown in economic activity, though not a
necessary result of the rates rise, gold is also getting the AntiDollar effect at the moment.
3) Also, there’s the final and a lesser factor of ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. We can point to
the Ukraine war, but also the volatility being caused as world inflation rates affect less
robust economies and drag emerging market countries and even industrialized nations (UK,
EU) into technical recession.
However, the Fear Trade is as much psychological as driven by financial fundamentals and on
that, we have already identified another factor that should play into the hands of gold bulls, so
here we go again with the “low GLD inventory” argument:
2

GLD gold holdings, 2016 to date (metric tonnes)
1300
1250
1200
1150
1100
1050
1000
950
900
850
800
750
700
650
600
3
61/4/1 61/61/3 61/62/5 61/8/8 61/81/01 61/92/21 71/41/3 71/42/5 71/4/8 71/61/01 71/72/21 81/21/3 81/22/5 81/2/8 81/21/01 81/42/21 91/8/3 91/02/5 91/13/7 91/01/01 91/02/21 02/5/3 02/51/5 02/82/7 02/7/01 02/71/21 12/3/3 12/11/5 12/22/7 12/1/01 12/31/21 22/42/2 22/6/5 22/02/7 22/92/9 22/9/21
mt
source: SPDR GLD data
Even as gold launches higher, we still have very little indication that Wall St and the major
funds and financial houses are joining in on its
run. Indeed, gold’s move to above U$1,920/oz 8.20 GLD: Inventory/Price Ratio, 2016 to date
8.00
last week was almost entirely ignored by the 7.80
7.60
world’s orthodox financial houses as our GLFD 7.40
7.20
inventory tracking chart indicates. Inventories 7.00
6.80
languish at 912 metric tonnes (mt), a mile below 6.60
6.40
the recent highs at the end of 2020 (when the 6.20
6.00
world was more interested on whether Trump 5.80
5.60
would concede in normal fashion…oh how young 5.40
5.20
we all were). The inventory/price ratio saw new
5.00
lows last week, we’re down to a previously
unimaginable 5.10X this weekend and a level I
honestly thought would be unattainable. It’s the
product of a gold price that has moved higher
without Wall St buyers and to make the same point as last weekend, here are two charts:
To the left, the price of gold (GLD proxy) and an imaginary mail, arriving on the desk of a US
fund manager from their eight or nine zero HNW client. To the right, the US Dollar index (DXY)
and another mail from the same client. The move in gold cannot be ignored by the big insto
desks much longer, particularly as it’s happening at the same time as a re-trace in the USD and
a growing set of forecasts for negative rates. This is the environment most conducive to gold
(The Fear Trade) and as the ratio chart shows, the big desks have a lot of bullion to buy to
catch up with the world market for the metal. It’s difficult to imagine gold going much higher
without attracting the attention of the western financial world and once it does, it will show up
in increased inventory tonnage of capital markets preferred entry point for the metal, the GLD
ETF.
This weekend’s U$1,920/oz print makes for pleasant reading, but if you need a reason for gold
to go higher still in the days to come how about “more buyers than sellers”? It tends to have a
positive effect on prices.
61/4/1 61/61/3 61/62/5 61/8/8 61/81/01 61/92/21 71/41/3 71/42/5 71/4/8 71/61/01 71/72/21 81/21/3 81/22/5 81/2/8 81/21/01 81/42/21 91/8/3 91/02/5 91/13/7 91/01/01 91/02/21 02/5/3 02/51/5 02/82/7 02/7/01 02/71/21 12/3/3 12/11/5 12/22/7 12/1/01 12/31/21 22/42/2 22/6/5 22/02/7 22/92/9 22/9/21
Source: SPDR data, IKN calcs

Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Three underperformers from the Stocks to Follow list
Let’s be honest, you don’t need The IKN Weekly to make money in the newly bullish market
backdrop of today’s junior sector. Any trader or investor with a modicum of experience and
market nous (and I expect all readers to qualify) can and will pick winners in the current benign
market and the combination of gold up, copper up, dollar down, GDX up (etc). In fact, the
proverbial monkey with a dartboard isn’t going to match the recos from this desk, but is likely
to do better than me as they wouldn’t be constrained by thoughts of “Ugh, that’s a dog”, either
pre or post dart throw. As such our simian friend then gets to enjoy a 4.5c stock move to 7c in
the twinkle of an eye, or a promo pump special that dropped from 80c to 20c in 2022 that then
regains 10c of its losses and provides the new buyer with a 50% win, when your author steers
clear of such trades. Etc etc and that’s enough pithy scene-setting, let’s get down to business
as, today’s main fundies section tries to cover two main subjects:
1) What to expect from The IKN Weekly stock recos. It may not always work to plan, but
we first outline the way in which we prefer our investment vehicles.
2) A review of the current laggards, or under-performers, on the Stocks to Follow list. We
look at the three stocks that are causing me the most pain on a weekly basis when
considering the overall portfolio performance.
1) The IKN Weekly recommends fundamentally sound stocks
I’m not averse to buying smaller positions in riskier juniors and it only takes one look at the
current Stocks to Follow list, or even the red ink in the Appendix section at the foot of every
edition that shows all our closed trades over the years, to know that. There are different
thought processes for the smaller and riskier trades we pick up too, from starter/foothold
positions with a view to making the trade larger as long as things go well, to near-term
momentum trade with specific targets, and plenty of other shades and reasons. However and in
general terms, the stocks that attract the larger investments with normal time schedules (e.g.
12 months) are chosen for their fundamental strength and my largest trades are nearly always
fundy picks. Preference is for companies with strong underlying financials, or perhaps the
special situation “turnaround trade” when a company is coming out of a weaker financial period
and is about to see a marked improvement in its fortunes. So aside from the exceptions that
prove the rule, that’s what you’re getting from these pages, ladies and gents. It’s up to you to
decide whether that suits your cause, whether it’s good, bad or indifferent but over the long-
term, I make no apology from presenting a clear investment thesis and then going about the
job of executing on the philosophy.
Neither do I claim it It’s not an infallible method either, as one glance at trades such as Rio2
(still open) or Argonaut (AR.to, happy to have closed it) will suffice. Black Swan events and
company-specific problems hit trades no matter how good their balance sheet or ostensible risk
prospects might be, but when it works correctly the house strategy is to limit downside risk
while leaving trades open to medium and long-term gains.
Feel free to accuse me of cherry-picking the examples in the following chart, because the idea
is to show what happens when the strategy is working and, with wriggle room, the trades in
the copper space have worked in the right ballpark way. This chart contains…
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1) COPX: The copper producer ETF, as benchmark
2) WRN.to: Western Copper & Gold, a current holding
3) ARG.to: Amerigo Resources, a current holding
4) CMMC.to: Copper Mountain, a previous trade, now closed
5) HCH.v: Hot Chili, this desk has considered and passed
6) WCU.v: World Copper, a hard pass
Let the cherry-picking accusations rain down, but (with COPX splitting them) the two largest
copper holdings in the portfolio have held up better than the others and we tend to avoid the
highest risk promotional stocks such as WCU fairly easily. So with that in mind…
…we now note that in the last ten days, two of my discard stocks, CMMC and the dreaded
pump job WCU, have been the best performing of the six examples and current holding WRN
has lagged the field, barely above breakeven. This is also a standard trade pattern for stocks
we choose, they tend not to be the most reactive and volatile at times when the market
changes and/or accelerates higher. Again, I’m
certainly not averse to picking a few stocks along the
way that fit the bill and please note, my only trade
last week was to add to the nicely rebounding
Newcore Gold (NCAU.v) as it climbs back from a
highly oversold position (it’s up 50% in two months).
Or if you like, we caught and traded Goldshore
(GSHR.v) nicely at the end of 2022 but those are not
the rule nor the normal trade method for these
pages. Instead, we run the numbers and go for
stocks such as WRN, with “shovel ready” credentials
and obvious buyer(s) waiting in the wings. Or
Amerigo (ARG.to), with rock solid financials and a
business model that made the U$3.80/lb and
U$4.00/lb copper price levels obvious places at which to buy or add (right).
The Three Current Laggards
Okay, so arguably there are more than three if you want to include the penalty-boxed Rio2 Ltd,
or perhaps you’re more bothered about the under-achievement of the small trades in Altiplano
(APN.v), Chesapeake (CKG.v) or Aldebaran (ALDE.v) so far. However, I will fix today’s focus on
the three stocks that a) carry a larger or even large amount of my investment cash and b) have
been annoyingly reticent to move up in recent days. They’ve also been collecting more than
their fair share of subscriber feedback, so I know that I’m not alone in having them as laggards
in my portfolio. The three are:
1) Minera Alamos (MAI.v)
2) QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v)
3) AbraSilver (ABRA.v)
Thoughts on all three coming up, in ascending order of portfolio importance. In each case, we
5

offer a pair of two month charts for reference purposes, a period that covers any Canadian Tax
Loss trading action as well as the perky first two weeks of 2023; One is a box standard price
chart, the second is a comparative to a relevant peer group ETF for better market context.
AbraSilver Resource Corp (ABRA.v)
When not just one but two strong drill NRs don’t manage to move your stock in a market period
which sees silver, gold and and peer group stocks move up nicely, there’s something amiss with
the narrative. Our relatively new trade AbraSilver (ABRA.v) may of course simply be suffering
from the jinx of becoming an IKN Weekly silver pick, but if we set black magic aside for one
moment and consider that both the December 15th (1) and last week’s NR on January 10th (2)
both showed strong results that are doing what as expected of ABRA and growing the resource
footprint at its main zone as well as the highly prospective new Southwest/JAC target, we may
need to look elsewhere for reasons why the share price isn’t performing as expected.
Accordingly, it would seem ABRA has picked up unwelcome shorting activity from its recent
bought deal placement. Done and dusted in just one week, closed on December 6th (3) and run
by Eight Capital, the delta between ABRA and the silver stock ETF SIL in the chart above right
shows how the advantage gained by ABRA on peers during its strong Q3 has been ground away
since the announcement. The placement added around 5% to the overall shares outstanding
count, nowhere near enough to account for the 30%+ delta between the two lines in less than
two months.
We have to be careful about falling back on “It’s them nasty shorties” as the reason behind any
share price under-performance. All too often, the disgruntled holder will use the same excuse to
explain away their shabby stock performances and once your social media support group has
decided that “it must be those shorts”, it’s not uncommon to see a whole bunch of unproven
and evidence-free conspiracy theories spring up, with all the bias confirmation you’ll ever need
to make you think that your original stock thesis wasn’t dumb, it’s not your fault and it’s just
not fair. I for one know this because I’m regularly accused by social media loudmouths of being
short (or even heading a short selling ring) due to the way I’m…errrr….not afraid of voicing my
opinion on a range of stocks over at the open blog. Nothing could be further from the truth of
course, I’m rarely short a stock and, as a matter of fact, haven’t taken out a short position for
at least a couple of years on anything*.
I digress. Putting the blame on Naughty Shorty isn’t my normal tack, however in this case
there’s mounting evidence that ABRA is being suppressed at market by fairly classic trading
patterns. I’m not sure of even interested in whether it originates from Eight Capital either, the
tape pattern is the best tell and that comes from (too much) market watching and observation
of the way the stock moves intraday, and on what type of volume. The timing is also right, as
the under-performance kicked of at the end of November and though I expected its effects to
abate once the bought deal was closed, it’s simply carried on since then. Therefore and without
being able to say with 100% certainty, both deal timing and trade patterns, plus the way ABRA
has failed to rally after two positive drill NRs, strongly suggest short suppression of the stock.
6

This is said without lapsing into paranoia, as effective shorting isn’t as prevalent as most retail
make out but, on the other hand, there’s no doubt it exists and is used on the TSX/V markets
by instos with a standard playbook.
As for the solution? Don’t get mad, get even! With the likely cause identified, it gives an
opportunity to put my fundamentals-base opinion of this stock to the test as I liked its chances
at 38c and 40c, there’s even more reason to like it at 34c and particularly after watching its
peers rally another 10% or so. While too much silver exposure isn’t my favourite plan, there is
room in the current portfolio for a little more and on looking round the marketplace, there’s
very little in the silver sub-sector that appeals next to this stock at such a discount. The
question isn’t whether the shorts cover and take their profit but when, as the scenario as set
out in today’s intro section, one that expects more generalist money to position in gold bullion,
isn’t one that lives in a vacuum.
Short set-ups like the one being used on ABVRA at the moment rely on several factors, one of
which is a reasonably regular flow of money in the overall sector. The GLD inventory data
suggests there’s little in the way of new, top-down money entering the sector as yet but, with
the continued out-performance of gold against the USD and other issues, it’s only a matter of
time before that changes. When it does, new money entering the market will look for value
positions in stocks that tick the right boxes, one with undervalued stock price and an entry
point that can absorb a large amount of shares before reacting higher. Short set-ups are just
that, they allow new money to position before the sheer weight of fresh buying forces the
shorts off their position. That doesn’t normally end in the classic and violent “short squeeze”
that shoots a stock very high very quickly, but it will force covering before things get out of
hand and, at that point, ABRA will be ready to play catch-up to its peers. In order for this to
work, you also need a company and project with strong credentials and that’s where Diablillos
delivers, as it’s one of the best new PM developments I’ve seen recently, silver or not, and at
this price it’s becoming too cheap to ignore as the market looks to take off.
Therefore, the plan here is to add a few more in the days ahead and build a larger trade. If , as
we suspect, the PM sector is about to enjoy an influx of new generalist money, this is the type
of stock that will re-rate quickly as its near-term market suppression fades. I consider the ABRA
short attack to more less annoying, more a clear-cut opportunity.
*Perhaps I should start. What’s more, Aris Mining (ARIS.to) is somewhat tempting at C$4.
QC Copper & Gold Inc (QCCU.v)
This has been a highly frustrating copper trade and on consideration, I think there are three
main causes behind the current stagnant trading in the stock and the way QCCU has failed to
rally with its copper peers. None of the issues are serious but as a group, they have managed
to keep the stock price from rebounding. They are:
1) The timing of the recent copper price rise, which has been better for peers than QCCU
2) The late arrival of the updated mineral resource estimate (MRE)
3) The lack of clarity from the company in 2022 regarding its drill program and objectives
Since impressing the market with its maiden resource from Opemiska in 2021, QCCU has gone
about doing what it said it would do at the project and has invested in the drill bit in order to
build its resource. That’s all fine, but we saw in early 2022 and then as the year went on that,
with every drill assay NR, the market was scratching its head about the apparent low grading
results coming from the project compared to the high average grade and tonnage reported in
the maiden MRE. It was more a lack of communication from QCCU than anything else, but
grades didn’t make for great headline numbers and on several occasions, I received mails from
subscribers wondering whether I was looking at QCCU’s 2022 result through rose-tinted specs.
In fact no, as the 2022 drill plan was never about trying to emulate the numbers from the
untouched saddle zone or the crown pillar; instead, QCCU was “turning waste into ore” by
drilling those parts of the project that would have to be dug out anyway in the open pit mine
7

plan, but with every 0.25%Cu or 0.3% cu intersect, were changing the implied tonnage from
dirt that would be dumped into dirt that would make the leach pad and return economic metal.
That’s what we can expect from the upcoming MRE and it cannot come quickly enough. While
the original plan is only been set back by one quarter (according to management, at least), it
means QCCU has missed out on the benefits of copper’s run to U$4+ as the market waits to
see what it delivers in the new MRE (and trades in other Cu stocks instead of this one). Also, as
the 2022 results were a series of apparently lower grading intersects, there are doubts among
observers on what QCCU is going to deliver in the way of average grade, mineralized tonnage
and overall copper resource. It will be up to the company to explain its new MRE and make its
case as compellingly as possible; we know average grade will drop, but as Opemiska has a low
cut and copper prices are on the rise, what matters most is the economics of mining the open
pit tonnages so key information will be the new strip rate, alongside the new copper tonnage
totals.
I am not a buyer of any more QCCU at the moment, before that happens it first needs to
deliver on its delayed MRE and then make its new resource and potential economics stand out
from the crowd in the way its 2021 MRE did. At that point we should have enough information
to know whether it’s worth continuing, adding or even selling and putting the embedded cash
to work at a more dynamic copper trade, but it will stay as an open trade until the MRE shows.
I don’t expect it to rally much before then, but it gets my patience for the time being.
Minera Alamos Inc (MAI.v)
It’s not just me feeling the frustration of the lack of movement in my largest position and only
current Top Pick. On Friday afternoon I received a mail from “DP”, a long-time subscriber and
fellow long in MAI. Here are some very slightly excepts from his mail (you’re not missing much
more than the hellos and goodbyes):
I’m sure you read CEO. CA MAI board, as do I. There is a real sense of growing
frustration there.
It has moved from Doug is doing a great job, and its great management is the best to
more of a sense of frustration. I’m sure you know the posters that I’m referring to.
This is my largest position. It’s troubling that gold has gone from $16xx to $19xx
rapidly, yet the stock has stayed in the sub 50 cent range for a long time. Long gone
are the days of $.70 with ambitions of $1.00+
Do you have any best guess as to why it can’t join in the rally that many of the other
gold companies are enjoying? Is it an analyst coverage issue, or concerns with
Mexico’s permitting? Lack of Rain… other things? I now fear that if the commercial
production call on Santana is made, it might now be a sell the news event.
DP’s only mistake? I rarely read stock bullboards these days and only tend to check them out
when prompted. As DP had done just that I went to the CEO.ca dedicated board (4) and spent
an hour or so scrolling, scrolling, scrolling and reading the gripes and moans of two or three
posters. Aside those people repeating the same points (Is there something wrong at Santana?
Political risk in Mexico? Drought problems? Commercial production when? The share price
action sucks!) the only other real takeaway was the lack of defence from a bunch of longs,
8

huddled together in that “misery loves company” manner and failing to push back hard against
the moaners. Oh, and company President Doug Ramshaw posts there as well (he’s more
bullish, obviously).
So, social media investigation done it was time to consider the real question; Why is Minera
Alamos under-performing? To begin, in fact it’s not doing that badly over the last two months,
as these charts show:
In my reply to DP I wrote, “Not exactly what we want from a high leverage exploreco, I agree.
But what's the big beef?”
 Yes, of course you don’t want a sub-$200m junior to trade in line with the GDXJ
 For sure, the last two months aren’t the only ones in which MAI has done little more
than flatline
 Agreed that the story has seen its timeline stretch and it should have declared
commercial production by now.
However, the perception of the last two months is worse than the reality, that’s what those two
charts tell me. Also, last week saw gold making a big near-term move above the U$1,900/oz
line but as noted above in the intro (and backed up by evidence in today’s Producer Basket),
most PM producers failed to give due leverage to the rise in gold price, it wasn’t just MAI. Also,
I will reiterate the note from IKN712 from last weekend, which said among other things:
“…after conversing with company President Doug Ramshaw last week, I’m
more than happy to give the company a couple of weeks of grace before we
get any formal news on any corporate matter. While the MAI team is clear on
what it wants to do in the next few weeks and has unofficial plans decided,
due to a mix of professional and personal reasons they haven’t managed to
get together and come to the type of formal, rubber-stamped decision that
their lawyers require. It’s a minor internal delay and nothing to sweat…”
But that’s as far as my defence of the stock and its price action goes. There have been good
reasons for a delay to any announcement in 2023 so far and, on speaking with President
Ramshaw ten days ago, making a few points that picky shareholders make in clear English,
then listening to his replies and taking into account circumstances, I thought it fair to give MAI
a couple of weeks grace. That was a week ago, which means I’m going to hold fire for another
week. That said, I’ll still be fully on-board with MAI as long as it can address all the outstanding
questions people might have about its 2023 plans and timelines at Santana Cerro del Oro (and
potentially Minera Copper at Los Verdes, next door to Santana). But it needs to speak to the
market and rally its excellent shareholder equity before it starts to deteriorate and sees long-
term holders become disgruntled sellers.
And I’m going to pay more attention to that MAI board in the next few weeks.
9

Stocks to Follow
The good news is that of our 16 followed tickers (mostly owned these days), there were only
two week-over-week losers. The bad news is that one of those two was Top Pick Minera Alamos
(MAI.v), down 1.5c on a week in which you’d have expected it to do better, the other loser
being the long-term non-mining position in Mene Inc (MENE.v). There were also four UNCH
stocks (QCCU.v, ABRA.v, ORX.v, APN.v) which leaves ten winners so not listing them all, we’ll
just mention the best percentage winners ATAC (ATC.v up 18.8%), Contango (CTGO up
17.3%), Minera IRL (MIRL.cse up 12.5% or half a cent), Newcore (NCAU.v up 10.2% and thank
you Mr Market) and Amerigo (ARG.to up 8.6% and outdoing most Cu trades, which was nice).
We currently have a total of 16 names on our table, four below our self-imposed maximum. Six
are in the green, two are UNCH, eight are in the red. To quote Winston Churchill, KBO.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.465 121.4% $0.75 first tgt, #1 idea
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Amerigo Res ARG.to STR BUY C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.52 11.8% Main Cu trade, top fundies
Western Copper WRN.to BUY C$2.02 13-Nov-22 C$2.57 27.2% New trade, M&A potential
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v BUY C$0.275 25-Apr-21 C$0.165 -40.0% MRE due 1q23. Easy hold
Newcore Gold NCAU.v BUY C$0.21 23-Oct-22 C$0.27 28.6% Cheap now, MRE due Jan'23
AbraSilver Res. ABRA.v BUY C$0.38 4-Dec-22 C$0.34 -10.5% New trade, started weak
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v HOLD C$0.83 22-Apr-18 C$0.245 -70.5% Cheap on permit probs, appeal
SPECULATIVE TRADES
Orefinders ORX.v.v SPEC BUY C$0.04 23-Oct-22 C$0.04 0.0% Plan to build position at 4c
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v SPEC BUY C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$2.13 -30.6% Au leverage, small trade so far
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v BUY C$0.72 16-May-21 C$0.80 11.1% Now in its drill results season
Altiplano Metals APN.v HOLD C$0.31 17-Sep-21 C$0.145 -53.2% Cheap entry, plan on track.
Minera IRL MIRL.cse avoid C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.045 -76.9% run into ground by CEO
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
ATAC Res ATC.v WATCH C$0.095 11-Sep-22 C$0.095 0.0% Cheap Yukon neighbour play
Contango Ore CTGO WATCH U$23.25 2-Dec-22 U$25.85 11.2% Dropping from watch list
Anacortes Mining XYZ.v WATCH C$0.49 22-Jul-22 C$0.42 -14.3% potential gold exploreco trade
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.66 6-Dec-20 C$0.43 -34.8% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2023 date closed close price
none as yet
2015 to 2022 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on just a couple of the covered companies:
Newcore Gold (NCAU.v): ADDED. The addition was slightly more expensive than preferred
and gets the house cost average to 21c (and a tenth or so, I round down), but minor gripes
aside all is good and NCAU is starting to climb back. We await the MRE news and in the
meantime, I’ll be watching the price action for any move to 35c, the price I have mentally
pencilled in as the first staging post of its market recovery.
Amerigo Resources (ARG.to): Going well. We’re not going to dwell on the stocks in our
portfolio that are doing what they’re supposed to do, so just a couple of lines on ARG to note
that we should get its 4q22 production NR any day soon, probably this coming week, plus the
look of the tape last week (ten day chart right) suggests ARG is back at market and buying
back its shares under the NCIB. It bought none in December and we’ll probably have to wait
10

until early February for confirmation, but there’s
every reason to suspect the company will start
using excess cash on its buyback strategy now
that copper is above U$4.00/lb. If the price
trajectory continues, we should also get a bonus
dividend payment (or two?) over and above the
3c/quarter standard, but that’s probably a little
later in the year and I for one warmly applaud any
move to re-start the buybacks first.
Chesapeake Gold (CKG.v): Why hasn’t CKG
moved yet compared to the move in gold? Why
hasn’t it shown the leverage potential of its multi-
multi million ounce gold resource at Metates? Simple enough: Under CEO Alan Pangbourne,
CKG has been framed as a metallurgy story and therefore, until such time as we have the
results of its ongoing metallurgy tests, we’re not going to get definition on its potential.
However, even with the preliminary results we know that Metates can get between 60% and
70% recoveries from its rocks and with that applied to its high grade starter pit zone, we also
know that its less a case of whether there’s a resource to mine economically, more about
knowing the size. With two small purchases until now (and solidly underwater), the house plan
has not changed and it’s a case of staying the course until CKG announces its met results and
plans to move Metates into production (with as low a capex as possible). At that point, we’ll be
able to make the decision on whether to scale in.
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v): The stock pinged the house best-guess line of 25c last week and while it
didn’t hold to the close Friday, this chart shows
the progress made from the depths of despair
in the last three months.
Again, let’s be crystal clear and state that Rio.v
is not out of the penalty box, now is it likely to
move out until with have resolution on the
major underlying issue, that of its permitting in
Chile. The house position has been that even if
we consider RIO.v a gamble on the foibles of a
lefty government, there was room to see the
stock higher and our best guess all this time
has been around the 25c mark. That may be
wrong of course, RIO.v may have legs to go
higher before the appeals process gets underway and we see the rally continue, but as I
explained to a fellow long last week who’d reached out to pick my brains on the subject, my
line in the sand is based upon answering the question “What price means RIO.v is out of the
penalty box?” and 25c looked a reasonable best-guess, all things considered. What’s most
pleasing in the three month chart above is the pick-up in volume and at some point, that may
make RIO.v tradable inside a range. 20c to 25c? 25c to 30c? Time will tell, but the real benefit
in owning RIO will happen when it clears up this permitting mess and gets back to the real
work of a junior mining company. To that end, we note the incentive options award out of the
company last week (6) and while the total of 7.5m options is on the large side, the shareholder
alignment comes in the details, and we quote:
These Stock Options have an expiry date of January 11, 2028, and will vest 1/3 thereof
on each of the first, second and third anniversaries of grant. Each Stock Option entitles
the holder to purchase one Rio2 common share at a price of Can$0.30 for a period of
five years from the date of grant.
A refreshing change to the companies that give options to insiders at the closing market price and allow
them to vest immediately, this award is one that will benefit the team in the event of a successful appeals
process and is how incentive options are supposed to work.
11

Minera IRL (MIRL.cse): Here are the MIRL trades so far in 2023, as per its dedicated CSE
page (7):
The stock has traded the sum total of three times in the first two trading weeks of 2023, or four
if you split that Merrill 20k sale into its parts. Not only that, but the Desjardins 9k purchase,
followed by a sale of the same amount from the same house, is almost certainly a tiny wash
trade and an attempt to prop the stock at 4.5c. There’s nothing else to say about this disaster
until the company comes up with some real news.
Contango Ore (CTGO): The thin trading in CTGO remains a serious handicap to any active
trade in the stock, as last week demonstrates. It
took (probably a single buyer) to move in on
Monday and Tuesday to buy around 10k shares
(7,900 volume Tuesday) to move the stock from
the U$22 line, to U$24 and then well over $25. the
buyer went away and from there, CTGO drifted
into the close on a couple of very small trades.
At the end of 2022 CTGO raised U$5.6m in
working capital to continue with its project
development (8) by selling a total of 283,500
shares and warrants, but the riddle of raising its
30% or the Manh Choh capex continues. We
watch.
The Copper Basket
After two weeks of 2023, The Copper Basket shows a gain of 4.47% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Solaris Res SLS.to 6.44 114.56 766.41 6.69 3.9%
2 Western Copper WRN.to 2.41 151.597 389.60 2.57 6.6%
3 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.22 88.028 294.89 3.35 4.0%
4 Arizona Sonoran ASCU.to 1.92 88.713 199.60 2.25 17.2%
5 Oroco Res OCO.v 0.91 207.034 184.26 0.89 -2.2%
6 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.78 138.579 110.86 0.80 2.6%
7 Hot Chili HCH.v 0.78 119.455 105.12 0.88 12.8%
8 Pan Global Res PGZ.v 0.46 212.145 97.59 0.46 0.0%
9 Regulus Res. REG.v 1.10 101.85 93.70 0.92 -16.4%
10 Faraday Copper FDY.to 0.54 123.012 86.11 0.70 29.6%
11 Kodiak Copper KDK.v 1.12 55.6 70.06 1.26 12.5%
12 QC Copper QCCU.v 0.165 150.736 24.87 0.165 0.0%
13 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.16 86.966 15.65 0.18 12.5%
14 Libero Copper LBC.v 0.155 90.669 11.79 0.13 -16.1%
15 Atacama Copper ACOP.v 0.16 34.373 5.50 0.16 0.0%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg 4.47%
A second week of positive overall performance from our Copper Basket list, though it must be
said that the moves in these juniors weren’t as impressive as that of the underlying metal.
12

There were only two week-over-week losers (REG.v, ACOP.v) and two remained unchanged
(QCCU.v, LBC.v), so that means eleven winners and that’s a strong haul, but only one of those
was a double figure percentage win, so a round of applause to Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.v up
15.4%). As for the copper price, that showed an excellent move last week:
The sector was watching the U$4.00/lb line and when it broached, buy programs didn’t wait
around. The fundamental reason/excuse for the run on copper was, of course, China and the
world is happy about the way its re-opening is going:
 Covid has killed an estimated 60,000 people in the last few weeks
 Protests against Xi and the current regime have been minimal
 With the government firmly in control, the rules are known
 As a result, the market knows that industry will pick up either sooner or later
It’s easy and reasonable to assume China is underplaying the severity of its current Covid wave,
it’s also reasonable to assume that the party under Xi doesn’t care that much about the death
of a few hundred thousand old people. And capitalism goes with the flow.
So with demand now slated to increase, market thoughts turn to supply and on Friday morning,
IKN Mancrush and Reuters’ base metals columnist, Andy Home, gave it bullish food for thought
with his note “Base metals start the new year with depleted inventory” (9). Home focused
almost entirely on the LME and his words were as much about the other base metals contracts
(Al, Zn, Ni etc) as for copper, with SHFE and copper (see below) getting a short paragraph
mentioning its seasonality at the bottom of the page. But by then his point had been made and
it was a recurring theme: The LME wants metal and cannot get it. Here’s how he wrapped up
his note:
LME stocks could desperately do with any sort of rebuild, whether seasonal or cyclical.
European recession should in theory mean more metal becoming available for
exchange delivery and there remains the possibility of unwanted Russian metal turning
up in the system.
So far, however, significant arrivals remain conspicuous by their absence and until that
changes, low visible inventory is going to keep roiling the LME base metals.
And by “roiling”, read “open to bullish attack at any moment” so remember what happened to
nickel during Q1 of 2022, then imagine what that would mean to a much larger contract such
as copper. So yes, there are plenty of fundamental reasons to see copper moving higher and
while it came in something of a rush, this desk has been calling the metal as ready for a move
from the U$3.80/lb line and above $4 for too many editions to remember offhand. But we now
also have the potential for the market and its mechanisms to taker over and push copper a lot
higher still. This is a potential sweet spot for copper:
 The world considers The USA can avoid recession and make its soft landing
 Inflation rates coming down quickly
 China re-opening and using playbook Keynesian stimuli to boost its growth
13

 The market realizing the supply deficit is not in the future, but already here
Yogi Berra knew that it's tough to make predictions, especially about the future, so nothing
cast-iron but there’s certainly the potential to see a perfect storm in the copper market and for
prices not to move merely higher, but a lot higher and very quickly indeed.
Bottom line: Yes, I’m bullish copper. You may have worked that out by now.
We now move to our regular weekly update on the world copper inventory scene, data from
Chile’s Cochilco:
 The overall inventory aggregate of the world’s three official systems rose for a second
week, up another 18,820 metric tonnes (mt) to close Friday at 216,507mt, the first
break above 200k since early November.
 The reason for the pop was all in Shanghai, as the SHFE saw stocks rise by 22,095mt
to close over the 100k line at 102,493mt. That means SHFE has seen over 33kmt enter
SHFE since the turn of the year.
 Meanwhile, we had a continuation of the trend at the LME and another small drop in its
copper inventory, down 2,550mt to close the week at 83,850mt.
 To wrap up the notes, another inconsequential move in Comex copper stocks, down
725mt to close at 30,164mt.
The long-term dedicated SHFE tracking chart shows that pop over 100kmt in stocks, the first
time SHFE has held that much copper on its wharfs since March of 2022. It’s early to see the
re-stocking begin, then again Chinese New Year is early on this year’s Gregorian calendar.
Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2014 to date
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
14
31'13ceD dr32 ht02 ht51 ht01 ht5tco ht03 ht52 dn22 ht71 ht21 ht6pes ts1von 102ht72ced ts12 ht71 ht21 ht7guA dn2tcO ht4ceD ht92 ht62 ts12 ht61 ht01 ht5von ts13 ht52 dn22 ht42 ht91 ht41 ht9 9102
dr3bef
ts13 ht62 ts12 ht51 ht01 0202ht5naj 0202ts1ram ht62 ts12 ht61 ht11 0202ht6ced ts13 ht82 dr32 ht81 ht21 ht7 2202dn2naj ht72 ht42 ht91 ht41 ht9 ht4ced
Mt Cu
|
source: Cochilco
We do know SHFE stocks need to improve in the way they always do during the Q1 period and
the interesting data come with the top of the spike, which didn’t make 200kmt last year and
was the lowest in recent memory. Once that is on, we’ll know more about the mid-term
demand issue.
Now for a few notes on some basket component stocks:
Arizona Sonoran (ASCU.v): Subject of last weekend’s main fundies note “Arizona Sonoran
(ASCU.v), Osisko Development (ODV.to) and how a staged approached to mine development is
supposed to work” (a real mouthful). Last week’s
decent move was nothing to do with our note, it was
more connected to Tuesday when ASCU did a 1m
share block trade at the open, then CEO George
Ogilvie did a good job of presenting the company
and its attractions at an afternoon webinar
(recording available here (10)). The only downside
on that chart below is the volume on Friday, which
only just beat 30k on the day.

As for last week’s analysis note, it probably means nothing but this five day chart (right) fits in
with the narrative. But hey, WDIK?
Faraday Copper (FDY.to): The other early hotpot
copper junior in 2023 to date has been Faraday (FDY.to)
and as this 10 day chart shows it’s been doing decent
volume along the way. FDY has been using its
geographical address as headline selling point and you
can’t blame the company for that, what with rising
political risk in the world.
Regulus Resources (REG.v): REG is trading according
to its tradition. We’ve had the sharp spike up and now,
with volume quickly dropping off, the PPS fades once
again. However and as this chart shows, we only just got to the likely trading range and though
it’s a little risky on my part to start second-guessing very-near-term trading patterns, it would
only take some positive news from the company (a drill
result? the BVN clawback news?) to bring volume back
and move REG into that channel delineated on the chart
(right).
Is REG a trade now? Not for me, as we mentioned in
IKN707 its sweet spot for accumulation was during Tax
Loss season when you could get all you wanted under 80c
(and often under 70c). But if you’re still holding, there may
be a second spike coming up in the weeks ahead and
there’s no need to bail now that the Loonie line has
broken.
The Producer Basket
After 2 weeks of 2023, the Producer Basket shows a gain of 12.01% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 47.20 799 43.43 54.35 15.1%
2 Barrick GOLD 17.18 1761.54 34.60 19.64 14.3%
3 Agnico Eagle AEM 51.99 488.9 27.35 55.95 7.6%
4 Wheaton PM WPM 39.08 451.963 20.13 44.53 13.9%
5 Kinross Gold KGC 4.09 1256.1 5.95 4.74 15.9%
6 B2Gold BTG 3.57 1074.567 4.49 4.18 17.1%
7 Alamos Gold AGI 10.11 393.1 4.32 11.00 8.8%
8 Hecla Mining GFI 5.56 603.86 3.76 6.23 12.1%
9 Eldorado Gold EGO 8.36 185.73 1.68 9.03 8.0%
10 Wesdome Gold WDOFF 5.53 142.287 0.84 5.93 7.2%
All prices and stock quotes in U$ Port. avg 12.01%
There were nine winners (the others) and one loser (WDO.to down 3.4%) from our list of 10
producer stocks on the week, but most of the moves were in the +1% to +3% range and not
as strong as the week one. In fact the move in gold (GLD proxy +2.9%) was almost as good as
out main benchmark ETF (GDX up 3.5%) and even better than the GDXJ, up 2.9%. That’s the
Fear Trade in action, with bullion preferred to the equities of bullion producers. The best
upmoves came from B2Gold (BTG up 6.6%) and Hecla (HL up 5.2%), the others were in a heap
behind.
Wesdome Gold (WDO.to) (WDOFF): We should get WDO’s 4q22 production numbers this
15

week and, if the market signal is anything to go by,
it’s not going to impress:
That wouldn’t be a surprise. WDO is on the list for
its recovery potential into 2023 and not for its
below par 2022. We contend that CEO Middlemiss
wouldn’t have extended his company’s lines of
credit for no particular reason and the company is
going to go through a brief period of tight treasury,
but nothing it cannot survive and if 2023 guidance
is good enough, WDO may well offer strong
leverage to a rising gold price. Watching this stock
carefully and interested in last week’s relative
weakness.
Alamos Gold (AGI) (AGI.to): It feels like many moons have passed since our “An overview
of Alamos Gold (AGI) 3q22 financials” that ran as the main fundies note of IKN702, dated
October 30th 2022. At that time and after reading between the lines of the Q3 MD&A and
accompanying literature, we guesstimated that AGI would hit the mid-point of its 2022
production guidance of between 440k and 480k oz gold. From there, we broke down our
projected number into AGI’s three production units in this way:
Young-Davidson: 49,000oz
Island Gold: 36,000oz
Mulatos District: 50,000oz
Total: 135,000oz
Cut to Thursday January 12th last week and AGI reported its 4q22 production number (11),
along with the breakdown. Here’s the updated chart as used in the IKN702 note:
AGI: Gold production, per qtr
16
00653
00092
00905
00983
00653
00054
00363
00593
00054
00723
00763
00005
00143
00683
00084
00624
00883
00782
00953
00491
00132
00114
00693
00463
00213
00214
00084
00653
00224
00084
00953
00233
00154
00762
00082
00005
00132
00573
00915
0052200542
00915
00202
00373
00464
00724
00413
00394
00194
00604
00544
140000
130000
120000
110000
100000
90000
80000
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 22q4
Mulatos District
oz Au
Island Gold
Young-Davidson
Chanate
source: company filings
The result was (“our survey said”):
Young-Davidson: 44,500oz
Island Gold: 40,600oz
Mulatos District: 49,100oz
Total: 134,200oz
In other words, we got the mix slightly wrong, but fortunately for us, the best quarter at Island
Gold since 1q21 made up for a somewhat weak 44,500oz from Young-Davidson. However, the
Mulatos District promise was almost fully delivered and the total of 134,200oz produced in the
quarter was just 800oz off our guesstimate. I’ll take that.
But that’s not all, because AGFI also added to its previous transparency on future production
forecasts by offering plenty of detail about 2023 guidance, as well as a three year forecast.

Here’s the overview table from the NR, but…
…the entire 16 page NR is one of the best examples of long-term forward disclosure this desk
can recall. AGI is not waiting for its year-end
financials to offer the market plenty of detail on
its financial parameters, with excellent detail on
the 2023 deck and plenty offered for years
2024 and 2025 on its existing assets. AGI
didn’t move up hard on the 4q22 NR last week,
probably because the good news was already
baked in by a market expecting continued out-
performance from this company. This three-
month chart shows that even after being the
best of a bad bunch in the first three quarters
of 2022, AGI beat the median into the end of
the year by around 10%.
B2Gold (BTG): It’s showtime at B2Gold (BTG). We made our point about this stock being a
potential sleeper on the likelihood of a strong 4q22
production result mostly in IKN709 dated December 18th,
along with a reminder on Christmas Day in IKN710 and the
heads-up last weekend, so no repeats today. BTG is up
22.9% since IKN709 so that has franked the call, but most of
that improvement has been in general line with the market
and tracking GDX. However, Friday’s acti9on was different,
as seen on this five day comparative chart (right) as BTG
uncoupled from the benchmark and moved higher while all
around it, traders were taking profits on their positions in
peer stocks.
The TinyCaps List
After two weeks of 2023, the TinyCaps show a gain of 7.32% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/23 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Aurelius Min AUL.v 0.07 49.787 2.99 0.06 -14.3%
Coast Copper COCO.v 0.045 64.001 2.88 0.045 0.0%
District Metals DMX.v 0.075 86.891 9.56 0.11 46.7%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.13 69.962 9.79 0.14 7.7%
Manitou Gold MTU.v 0.02 344.568 8.61 0.025 25.0%
Nine Mile Metals NINE.cse 0.29 57.025 15.97 0.28 -3.4%
Palamina Corp PA.v 0.08 65.285 5.55 0.085 6.3%
Precipitate Gold PRG.v 0.075 130.367 9.78 0.075 0.0%
South Star STS.v 0.55 32.755 17.69 0.54 -1.8%
Viva Gold VAU.v 0.14 91.608 13.74 0.15 7.1%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 7.32%
17

This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $20m. They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a
little and allowed sub-U$20m market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, but it was a particularly depressing exercise to trawl through the whole of the TSXV and find companies
that are small enough, but with life in them. The vast majority of sub-$20m stocks are broken stocks, either
traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2023. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
This week’s trading results from our TinyCaps list is a good example of why we bother with this
list and why it’s a useful exercise. The plan rather fell apart in 2022 due to macro market
circumstances along with stocks on the 2022 list that turned out to be unrepresentative of the
whole, but as I put together the results for the new list on Friday I was more satisfied with the
section, the first time in almost a year. Last week returned a mix of four losers (AUL.v, LMS.v,
NINE.v, PRG.v), two unchanged stocks (COCO.v, MTU.v) and four winners (DMX.v, PA.v, STS.v,
VAU.v) and among them, several facets of the opportunities and risks of trading this sector. But
more importantly as a whole, the basket shows that the tinycap end of the mining market is not
yet attracting the interest and money that the large-caps are getting (see the +12% number in
the Producer Basket table, above).
Nine Mile Metals (NINE.cse): Forgive me if I voice suspicion about a stock that dumped
hard in week one on real news of drill results, then climbs back 16.7% in week two of the year
on no news and talk that the next assays will show ‘em, etc etc. The trade here is pure drill
discovery and when those attract a following and trading volume, they often turn into rumour
monger stocks. As NINE has already published NRs based on held-held assays that haven’t lived
up to expectations when official results come back from the labs, plus a propensity to use the
wonderful world of “sponsored coverage”, those interested in this stock will be well advised to
block out the noise and focus on drill results at all times. There’s no need to chase hearsay and
trust the word of those on social media who claim to be close to the company and have a
sudden desire to be your friend. If the drill results are good enough, there will be plenty of
opportunity to trade NINE successfully.
District Metals (DMX.v): This one has sprung on volume and is a good example of a tinycap
stock story that gathers momentum. If you’re long this stock, do not be afraid of booking your
gains along the way.
South Star (STS.v): STS pinged hard on moderate volume Wednesday morning due to its NR
that day, which informed on results of the first pass drill program at its second-string project in
Alabama USA. See the NR for details, here we’ll paste out the NR bullet points as they give a
fair summation of the whole:
– Successful completion of 12 hole maiden diamond drilling program (506m) confirming at- or
near-surface mineralization with a total of 324.5 meters of mineralization and an average
weighted grade of 2.12% Cg.
– All the holes have significant intervals with grades typically ranging from 1.5% to 4.5% Cg and
consistent mineralized zones.
– All information and data will be compiled and used to
complete the maiden NI 43-101 resource estimate
planned for Q1 2023.
However, STS couldn’t hold on to most of those gains in
low volume trading Thursday and Friday. Which is also
fair enough, as the fate of this stock in 2023 will be
decided by its Santa Cruz start-up project in Brazil,
18

rather than a second project that could add value along the way, but isn’t going to drive gains.
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future
I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
Peru is going downhill fast
To borrow from Dan Rather borrowing from Harold Wilson again, if overnight is a long time in
politics and a week is forever, then a year in Peru’s scene is time stretched to infinity. However,
we need to begin to consider the country over in the frame of 2023 and early 2024 as a whole,
it’s beginning to matter in Peru as the resurgence of social protests and disturbances last week
have cast a new and different light on the country.
But before we consider what might happen in the next year and a half or so, we need to tackle
the present-day situation. We initially gave a qualified welcome to the results of the November
upheaval, when ex-President (and now remand prisoner) Pedro Castillo tried to usurp
democracy by closing Congress. We were under no illusions about the rough waters that would
cause in the days that followed but, with the decision by new and interim President Dina
Boluarte to bring forward elections and Congress apparently playing ball, we assumed the
atmosphere would eventually calm. However, recent events and a distinct change in popular
opinion means we’re back in a highly volatile situation that looks set to extend through 2023, or
at least until we get the required new elections. First some basic points:
 Last week saw a resurgence of violent protest marches and one in particular made
world headline news when 19 people died (rising to 21, including one police officer
burned to death in his patrol car later that night) after a mob invaded Juliaca airport
territory and were met with heavy mob suppression tactics by the armed forces
detailed to defend the zone.
 Further protests ensued about the army personnel under shoot-to-kill orders (and
happy to comply, it seems) and their methods given tacit support by both Congress and
the President and her ministers.
 The Left wing has taken advantage of the general unrest, but the groundswell of
opinion, particularly in the provinces, has been less about support for ex-President
Castillo or any left wing group and much more about “Que se vayan todos”, which
roughly translates as “Boot them all out.” The heavy-handed repression has turned
public opinion against the new executive and a new round of vitriol against the much
hated Congress. Public opinion demands they close down now, rather than sticking
around for another year and a half.
With a total of 47 dead protesters since the marches and clashes with army and police began,
there’s also pressure on new President Dina Boluarte to resign, seen as in cahoots with
Congress and playing politics with the lives of her citizens. But pressure or not she seems
determined to stick it out and in an address to the nation on Friday said as much. Here’s AFP on
the event (12):
“Some voices that have come from the violent and radical factions are asking for my
resignation, provoking the population into chaos, disorder and destruction,” Boluarte
said in the address.
“I will not resign. My commitment is with Peru,” she said.
“I cannot stop reiterating my regret for the deaths of Peruvians in these protests,” she
said.
“I apologise for this situation.”
However, neither public nor her own government bought what they see as crocodile tears.
Despite claiming to have a “united cabinet”, just hours later the ministerial resignations began
and by the weekend, she had re-shuffled her cabinet with three new ministers and once vice-
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minister brought in (13) (14). At the time of writing these words and according to Peru’s
roadways authorities, there are currently 121 roadblocks set up in 11 different regions of the
country, with the most affected zones being Puno and Cusco region. That number may increase
soon, as this weekend the CONACAMI anti-mine indigenous protest group announced (15) its
members would block all entry and exit roads to all mining operations in the country. That
sounds dramatic, but is the third time CONACAMI has ordered the same protest measure in the
last six months and on each occasion, they only manage to block the so called “mining corridor”
(which is already blocked this weekend anyway). The next date for the diary is probably
Tuesday, when protest marches are set to reach the streets of the capital Lima and according
to reports, busloads of participants are being shipped in from the provinces for the occasion,
Meanwhile, the government and media have been trying hard to find and use scapegoats, such
as the “Extreme left wing politicians” blamed for all disturbances and violence, and targets
including Evo Morales, the ex-President of Bolivia and powerful political figure. With the Puno
region located on the border with Bolivia and its largely indigenous populations closely related
by race and culture, Morales is a frequent visitor to the Puno region but suddenly, his visits
have been earmarked as suspicious. He and his entourage have been deemed personae no
grata by the new government and he will now be refused entry into Peru. Also, hard left wing
leaders of political groups in the Cusco region were targeted for arrest during the marches this
week and their names, unknown to the general population just days ago, are splashed over the
media coverage along with their apparent militant codenames and their long histories of
rebellious activities. These may or may not be true, but it’s telling how they have suddenly been
targeted by a government whose President and executive were voted in as part of the Perú
Libre party of ex-President Pedro Castillo and party founder (and true Marxist) Vladimir Cerrón.
The hard left extremists accused of incitement of the masses and now under arrest by the Dina
Boluarte government voted her in as the country’s Vice-President less than two years ago.
Along with the protests and violent clashes, there is currently a 30 day State of Emergency in
the Puno and Cusco regions, a move that suspends normal civic rights (freedom of assembly,
no-violation of domicile without judicial order, etc) and in Puno, an additional 8pm to 4am
curfew has been imposed in an attempt to calm the protests. However, the government has
also declared a 10 day State of Emergency for the Lima/Callao conurbation, this in reply to the
rise in protest marches seen in the capital over the last 72 hours. To date these protest
marches have been noisy but generally well-behaved, so the move by the government is
somewhere between heavy-handed and a demonstration of the level of nervousness in the
corridors of power. It’s one thing to have marches, repressive tactics and violence on TV, but
seeing protests pick up where over 10 million people live is, quite literally, too close to home for
most of the Congress.
For more on public opinion, we now turn to Aldo Mariátegui is a well-known right wing
columnist and media figure with regular op-ed features in national newspapers (as well as
regular TV appearances etc). In his column this week, “The Red Monster Counter-attacks” (16),
he summed up the viewpoint of a fair proportion of Lima’s middle class:
“Like trapped rats, the –left is attacking with all they have to destabilize the precarious
Boluarte government and re-gain power. There aren’t many of them, but there are
enough to arm mobs and incite groups of ignorant violent people in the provinces while
their allies in Lima support their cause, be it via NGOs, their politicians or their
journalists. There aren’t many violent people, but our police force has been
emasculated for fear of the NGOS covering human rights and the lack of political and
popular support when they attempt to charge them with crimes. And sure enough, the
left wing got their deaths to show as martyrs for their macabre political marketing.”
If it were only that easy. Mariátegui is smart enough to base his op-ed in some reality, so let’s
note the following:
1. Peru’s Left wing is trying to cling on the power, true. Protests are all they have and their
power base is in the country’s provinces, so it’s not surprising to see marches led by lefty
groups. However, their militants are a small proportion of the whole and most of the crowds
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are protesting for their own reasons, with plenty calling for a new constitution and
immediate elections.
2. The Left is now calling Castillo’s arrest and detention a “Coup D’Etat” when, quite literally,
the opposite is true. In fact Castillo’s dumb move to attempt to close Congress was exactly
that and no matter how well or badly he was advised, he was the President. His attempt to
get to the Mexican embassy and claim political asylum when it all blew up in his face is all
you really need to know about his motives.
3. Some Lefty leaders do indeed use their mobs in the most cynical of ways. In December and
most recently during the clashes that left 21 dead in and around the city of Juliaca, Puno
region, we’ve seen the protest marches deliberately led to airports by left wing agitators
who know full well that an invasion of airport terrain gets a “shoot first ask questions later”
reaction from the forces of law and order assigned to protect them. In that way they get
their “martyrs for the cause”.
However, it’s way too easy to blame it all on a minority hard Left wing looking to cause a
revolution. Yes indeed lefty leaders marched their mobs to airports up and down the country in
December, and then Juliaca in January, with the express intent of causing a scene. Thing is, the
Left’s strategy “worked” and they got their legions in martyrdom expressly because army
generals posted to duties far from Lima are also nasty pieces of work who think nothing of
putting a few bullets into a crowd of civilians. The result of 17 (or 21, depending on your news
source) dead protesters during the Juliaca airport invasion includes several cases of single
bullets to the head and, perhaps more concerning, medical testimonies and autopsies talking of
the use of dum-dum bullets that exploded once inside the body of victims, thereby turning an
injury shots into a fatalities. Also and though the Aldo Mariáteguis of this world do their level
best to ignore the fact, the current wave of protests are not mostly about the detention of
Pedro Castillo or the popular support of Peru’s Left wing. Agreed that the Left wing wails about
a Coup against Castillo and the demands for his release are part of the cocktail, but the Left
simply doesn’t have the support for what we’ve seen this week. The common thread among all
protesters, be they supportive of Castillo President Boluarte to resign, Congress closed and new
elections called as soon as possible, not on the current agenda that has new elections slated for
April 2024 which implies a handover of power in July next year, 18 months from now.
All this leaves Peru in a precarious situation as this new week begins. We await further protest
marches, the eyes of the world are on how the police and armed forces react to provocation
and/or rowdy crowds, left wing agitators would like more blood to fuel their cause, President
Boluarte is under pressure but is likely to survive, Congress has its pact with her and wants to
stick out this tough moment. We also have protest marches programmed for the capital on
Tuesday, roadblocks all over the place and whole regions and cities practically cut off from the
rest of the country (e.g. Arequipa). Anything could happen and probably will, but, if Congress
and the new President have their way they will ride out this heavy period and try to limp
through 2023 and get the country to the slated elections. They may end up being brought
forward from the currently slated April 2024 (December 2023 is possible) as a concession to the
protests, but that’s for the future. However and even in a best-case scenario, Peru’s 2023 looks
set to be an ongoing protest period and the current bad blood between public and leadership is
unlikely to abate. The country is set to stay volatile, its year uncertain and that’s assuming the
President doesn’t resign. Meanwhile the “Boot them all out” sentiment is growing among rank
and file and with elections happening at some point between now and April 2024, the country is
now opening the door of opportunity for a truly dangerous character. That’s the intro for our
next segment, dedicated to Antauro Humala.
Peru: Antauro Humala is a clear danger to FDI
It’s time to present Antauro Humala to this audience. A controversial figure in Peruvian politics
for over 20 years, the stage is now being set for the rise of this charismatic, hard-line populist
leader with a loyal follow. The potted biography (and this is as brief as possible):
 He is the elder brother of ex-President Ollanta Humala (they don’t speak to each other any
more, bigtime bad blood) and along with Ollanta, he briefly led an armed insurrection against
the Alberto Fujimori government during its last days, in 2000 and 2001.
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 He became the leader of the so-called Ethnocacerist movement that promoted a hardline
populist mix of political ideals that mixed ideas from the extreme left and right wings. There is
more than a little flavour of fascism in its politics.
 In 2005, he led a rebellion in the Andahuaylas region against the then-government of
Alejandro Humala. While he and his rebel troops were holed up in a police station, four police
officers trying to re-take the building were shot dead.
 Antauro was arrested and his political fortunes faded. In 2009, he was eventually sentenced
to 25 year in jail as leader of the uprising and for the murders of the officers. His less
charismatic brother Ollanta took over the Nationalist mantle and eventually became President
(with his refusal to free Antauro while President the baseline cause of the current bad blood
between the brothers).
 With a sentence reduction on appeal and time off for good behaviour, Antauro was freed from
jail after serving his sentence in August last year. He immediately set about campaigning and
putting together his political party, with obvious designs on being a political leader in Peru’s
future.
Last week, he presented the paperwork at Peru’s electoral body for his new party, named
translating into English as “National Alliance of Workers, Farmworkers, University (Members),
(Armed Forces) Reservists and Workers”. That’s a major mouthful and apparently includes
redundancies (two of the words get translated as “workers”) but the method in the madness is
its Spanish language name, the “Alianza Nacional de Trabajadores Agricultores Universitarios
Reservistas y Obreros”, as the acronym for that is A.N.T.A.U.R.O. That’s what happens when
you have a decade or so in jail to plan your future political career, I suppose. As for policy
points, while we have no manifesto from the man or his party, he’s been active on a speaking
circuit since being freed from jail last year and it’s clear his politics are still firmly based on the
old Ethnocacerist movement ideals, plus a few new items into the mix. Here’s a laundry list of
what we will probably get from Antauro’s party once it has firmed up its plans:
 A brand new constitution, likely based on the “Velasco Years” (1968 to 1975)
 The expropriation of all private TV channels and newspapers
 Obligatory military service for young male Peruvians
 Radical de-centralization in Peru, with regions given more autonomous control and power
taken away from Lima and its controlling groups
 Death by firing squad for corrupt politicians, with an emphasis on those involved in the
recent “Lava Jato” corruption scandal.
 A policy to take back control of the border region that belongs to Chile, South of the
Peruvian city of Tacna.
 The nationalization of natural resources (including mining, of course) and forced exit of
foreign capital concerns.
 A return to “traditional family values” whatever that might mean, but we know he has a
low tolerance for the homosexual community and is against “progressive” teaching
methods.
All those things and more. When asked about his political leaning, he still voices the “Neither
Left Nor Right” motto the Ethnocacerist movement used to use. Political analysts identify strong
fascist traits in his policies and political style, he certainly has the charisma and plans to model
himself as a strongman leader. Antauro first voiced support for ex-President Castillo when he
was impeached, but rolled back that view when it became clear Castillo has been at the centre
of ongoing corruption scandals he either knew about, or turned a blind eye while members of
his party cashed in. However and equally, Antauro is the sworn enemy of the “Lima elites”
(nearly all right wingers) and of Keiko Fujimori and the Fujimorista movement. He is a firm
advocate of closing down parliament, wants current President Dina Boluarte to resign and
wants Presidential and Congressional elections as soon as possible.
His is the “right” policy cocktail, particularly for provincial Peru, in 2023 and 2024. He is firmly in
favour of Joe Public “Boot them all out” demand and has no time for the current Congress, a
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position that will appeal to voters. Peru’s disdain for Congress hasn’t diminished since the
departure of Castillo and however much Congress tries to paint itself as the “defenders of
democracy” against “left wing aggression”, it won’t win over a populace that’s fed up with the
samo samo politics. This fits squarely into Antauro’s message, as does his charismatic, radical
populism that stands out as an antidote to “normal politics”. His nationalist platform will appeal
to provincial voters sick of the way Lima runs the country to its own advantage and ignores the
provinces and Peru’s voters are not tied to traditional left or right wing ideologies.
Make no mistake; At the time his brother Ollanta Humala was elected, the world ran scared of
his incoming nationalist agenda and apparent alignment to the Left wing, only to realize that
Humala was a milquetoast revolutionary and happy to maintain the status quo with Peru’s
ruling class. Not so Antauro, this is a dangerous reactionary whose brand will be heavily
populist and will promote hard line policies both at home and with neighbouring countries. His
“Peru for Peruvians” message is also venom for FDI and foreign mining companies (as well as
their shareholders) need to watch his progress carefully in the next 12 months because, if the
stars align and he becomes one of the frontrunners for the eventual Presidential election,
literally anything could happen. There’s no need to panic out of Peru exposed positions yet on
the thoughjt of Antauro becoming a leading political figure over the next 18 months, but his
moves and influence need to be watched very carefully now that the country has lapsed into
more protests and violent clashes. No need to sell Peru yet, but there’s little reason to add
more exposure until we have clarity.
Colombia: President Petro’s latest warning shot
Speaking at a meeting in the Jericó locality of Antioquia region, Colombia, this weekend,
President Gustavo Petro once again voiced his government’s plans toward large-scale mining
projects. His speech also made clear he wasn’t against mining “per se” and that his government
looked to improve the lot of small scale mining concerns, but the headlines were made by other
parts of his speech to the assembly. Here’s a translation of this wire report (17):
Bogotá, January 14th. The government of Colombia announced this Saturday that it will
review “all mining titles” currently existent in the country and would present a law
project (to Congress) to update the Mining Law, with a focus on the protection of water
sources.
This according to Colombian President Gustavo Petro, while visiting the Antioquia
population of Jericó, who told locals that his government would revise “…all mining
titles, to try to make them coherent with a series of basic principles of territories,
among them the care for water.”
The Head of State emphasized that “a territory’s water supply cannot be put in danger.
We said this while campaigning (in last year’s election) and it wasn’t just empty words.
It’s because we believe in this.”
On this subject, he said that university studies available to the government show that
the danger to water (supply) in the projects proposed by the mining industry and that
“We will choose water.”
He underscored that “for the universal principle of precaution, water cannot be put at
risk.”
As for the Mining Law reform, Petro said that a law project will (soon) be presented to
Congress.
Jericó was almost certainly carefully chosen by Petro for these words, as it’s the location of
AngloGold Ashanti’s Quebradona copper/gold project. Unsurprisingly, AngloGold was quick to
reply to the Petro speech (by Twitter) saying (18) (translated) “We have the tranquility that out
Quebradota Project doe not put at risk the water supply of the region and can co-exist in
harmony with an agrarian and ecological district.” Mind you, they would say that. What we do
know is that Petro’s opposition to Quebradona during his campaign was a clear vote winner in
the region and it is clearly unpopular among locals.
We noted a few weeks ago that the new Colombia government’s plans to present its mining
reforms to Congress have been delayed and would show at some point in Q1 this year. We’re
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now in Q1 and when they arrive, there’s no reason to expect them to be friendly towards
mining FDI.
Investment in Global, LatAm and Chile mining exploration on the rise
Chile’s Cochilco published an interesting, 31 page study on Friday (19) on the amounts being
invested in mining exploration and though it’s in Spanish, the vocabulary in the charts isn’t too
difficult and provides a good basis to sum up its main points. Please note that the data is
compiled by Cochilco with data from S&P Global included in the mix:
This first chart takes the worldwide view and estimates 2022 spending on exploration in mining
at U$13.006Bn. As you can see on the chart, that’s a 24.8% rise from the number in 2020 and
while that Covid-affected year is a recent bottom, the improvement is in-line with the 2021
numbers. We also see that the biggest spenders were large-scale operators and junior miners,
with intermediate-stage companies, governments and “other” making up the weight.
So, 2022 was the planet’s best year for mining exploration budgets since 2013 and that’s good,
the next chart breaks down the spending by region. To the left, spending in 2021 (above) and
2022 (below) for the denominated regions and to the right, the pie chart breaks down
percentages for 2022 only:
It may be a little unfair to have Canada, Australia and USA, three single state countries, stacked
up against continents, but we don’t have to be geographically accurate to get the feel on where
the money is being spent and seeing LatAm account for 25.1% of global spending shows its
importance in the mining world. Its 22.7% in YoY exploration spending was also in-line with the
other major mine jurisdictions.
We then focus further on LatAm in this next graphic. The chart to the left gives a breakdown
24

Of the type of mine project attracting budget, with baseline studies getting the smallest share,
development projects and feasibility studies the second largest and exploration at working
mines taking the largest amount (see the full report for the exact numbers). Then to the right,
the pie chart shows which of the LatAm countries are attracting the most spending on mine
exploration and despite all the bad press about its new Left wing stance, Chile still rules the
roost on exploration in the region. Chile is followed by Mexico, Peru and Brazil, i.e. the usual
suspects and the traditional mining countries of the region. For sure Ecuador’s 8.6% of the total
has improved in recent years, but it’s still very much a minor player in the region (though you’d
never know that from the promotion and marketing from the world of Canadian explorecos).
That sums up the front part of the Cochilco study, the next 15 pages or so get granular on just
Chile and they cut and slice a lot of data a lot of different ways. Even if Spanish isn’t your
strong point, the various charts and tables along the way make comprehension reasonably
straightforward so, if you’re interested in just Chile as your case study, make sure you
download your won copy (Cochilco studies are free of charge). I’ll offer just one representative
chart (below), which shows spending in the country on an annual basis since 2010 and the
percentage of world exploration cash that is spent in Chile, per year. For example, in 2022 Chile
saw U$713.2m spent on mining exploration, representing 5.48% of total world share.
Well okay, just one more from the options as this chart goes into names and is interesting
when we consider the current friction between Chile’s mining industry and the Boric
government, the names of the main players in Chilean mine exploration in 2021 (right) and
2022 (left):
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It’s a highly fractured breakdown and “other” made up 38% of total 2022 spending, but the
biggest single player in Chile in the last two years has been Anglo American Plc, which adds an
extra aspect to its upcoming permit appeal for its Los Bronces expansion project, worth a cool
U$3Bn in itself. As that will be the test case for other appeals including that of Rio2 at Fenix,
the level of money talking to a country that is about to slip into recession is not an insignificant
factor in how mining evolves in 2023.
Brazil: The fall-out from last weekend’s right wing insurrection
We’re going to stay away from pure Brazilian politics this weekend, as there has been plenty of
coverage in the international press on last weekend’s scenes in Brasilia, when hardcore
supporters of ex-President Jair Bolsonaro overran several government buildings, caused scenes
and did some medium scale ransacking. Instead and for anyone who wants more on the
national scene in Brazil one week on, in the opinion of this desk, Brian Winter, writing in
Americas Quarterly, gets the tone and potential repercussions spot-on correct in this report
(20). It starts this way:
There was never any genuine risk of a coup or popular revolution during Sunday’s riots
in Brasilia, and there is no risk of one today. But there are other, still highly problematic
scenarios on the table that could make life difficult for President Luiz Inácio Lula da
Silva, and damage the health of Brazil’s democracy and economy, in the weeks and
months to come.
A good op-ed by a seasoned LatAm reporter who knows his Brazil very well. One of his main
points is that of the echo chamber effect that seems to have fuelled the scenes last weekend,
as the Bolsonaro hardcore were under the impression that (enough of the rest of) Brazil would
rise up in support of their move. In fact, the opposite was true and polls this week have 75% of
the population against the hardcore insurrection scenes of last weekend.
Ecuador: CONAIE states its position on mining
Further to last week’s Regional Politics note on the battle lines being drawn between the
government of Ecuador and indigenous umbrella group CONAIE over mine development, the
planned CONAIE summit and press conference of Thursday January 12th happened as
scheduled and its news was big enough to get Reuters English language interested (21):
QUITO, Jan 12 (Reuters) - Ecuador's major indigenous organization said on Thursday
it was preparing to hold protests in mining areas in an attempt to stop extractive
activities near its communities.
The CONAIE indigenous organization - which led protests that paralyzed the country
for nearly two weeks last year - and an anti-mining group voted during an assembly to
oppose the expansion of mining in Ecuador because of its social and environmental
harm.
The groups voted to "prepare conditions of territorial defense" in areas where mining
companies were present, CONAIE leader Leonidas Iza said, adding measures would
be progressive.
"We want to say to trans-national mining companies, to mining business people in our
country: don't invest more in mining because we are going to defend our land," Iza
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said, without specifying when protests might begin.
Indigenous and environmental organizations say the government of conservative
President Guillermo Lasso has not complied with deals made after last year's
demonstrations to place a moratorium on mining in ancestral indigenous territories until
the legislature approves a law to outline community consultation rules for projects.
Reuters also noted that “…rejected a government announcement that it will declare "security
zones" around some mining projects…” but didn’t go into details. This was in fact the trigger for
the new protests and on this score, Iza and his committee said that his members would prevent
any contingent of police or army from moving into any self-denominated “security zone” around
any mine, because the statute simply did not exist and that all controversial mine projects were
located on indigenous territorial lands and, according to law, under their direct government. In
his words (22), “The indigenous guard will not permit the ingress of police and military into
mining conflict zones”, though there weren’t any details on how that blocking of the forces of
order would work in practice.
The ball is now in the Lasso government’s court and while the sides are currently antagonistic,
there haven’t been any active protest moves from CONAIE yet and as the government plans
haven’t been formally announced, there is time and space for Lasso’s side to alter its strategy.
The national government and indigenous locals are on a collision course over mining, however
there’s time to avoid the crash.
Market Watching
Orezone (ORE.to) quick update
Not much in Market Watching this weekend , just a quick note to continue the heads-up on
Orezone (ORE.to). Here’s a five-day comparative chart:
The downside is that my mooted $1.20 optimal entry point never transpired and the best likely
entry anyone got was C$1.25 on Monday. The upside is easier to spot, however. Interestingly
ORE picked up a negative research note out of Crux Investor on Friday (delivered straight to my
inbox by Crux, even though I don’t subscribe to them, ask them for any mails or even on their
lists as far as I know). It was a bit of a hit job and is full of rather strange and contrived
opinions (sorry guys, 0.63 g/t gold works well and isn’t extremely low for this type of mine) so
if it causes ORE to sell off in the next 48 hours, consider it a potential to take a second bite at
the apple. I’m still no fan of holding ORE over any extended period of time, but it has the
potential to move a higher than this Friday’s C$1.37 close once we have the 2023 production
guidance. That’s due soon.
Conclusion
IKN713 is done, we end with bullet points:
 The situation in Peru has changed in the last week, and not for the better. With the
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resurgence of protests and nefarious figure such as Antauro on the horizon, the
country’s politics will require close attention in 2023 for mining investors.
 I’ve had enough of Strategy Issues, this time next week we’ll be back to some real
work and focused anal ysis on featured companies. Bring it on Amerigo!
 Gold U$2k is now in the sightlines. Bring that on, too.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stock is Minera Alamos (MAI.v). Flash
updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best wishes, Mark
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://abrasilver.com/news-releases/abrasilver-reports-multiple-wide-silver-drill-intercepts-including-103-metres-
grading-139-gt-silver-near-surface-in-new-southwest-zone-at-diablillos
(2) https://abrasilver.com/news-releases/abrasilver-intersects-new-high-grade-feeder-structure-in-southwest-zone-at-
diablillos-871-gt-ageq-over-27m-and-522-gt-ageq-over-36m
(3) https://abrasilver.com/news-releases/abrasilver-announces-closing-of-c10m-bought-deal-private-placement
(4) https://ceo.ca/mai
(5) https://www.rio2.com/post/rio2-limited-announces-grant-of-incentive-stock-options
(6) https://thecse.com/en/listings/mining/minera-irl-limited
(7) https://www.contangoore.com/press-release/news-release-contango-ore-inc-announces-private-placement-of-
common-stock-and-year-end-update
(9) https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/base-metals-start-new-year-with-depleted-inventory-2023-01-13/
(10) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s202esQr2i8
(11) https://alamosgold.com/news-and-events/default.aspx#news--widget
(12) https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20230114-peru-president-insists-i-will-not-resign-as-protests-continue
(13) https://rpp.pe/politica/gobierno/virgilio-acuna-renuncio-al-cargo-de-viceministro-de-transportes-noticia-
1459859?ref=rpp
(14) https://rpp.pe/politica/gobierno/dina-boluarte-tomo-juramentos-a-los-nuevos-ministros-de-trabajo-interior-y-mujer-
noticia-1460095
(15) https://peru21.pe/opinion/apurimac-pedro-castillo-dina-boluarte-protestas-opinion-aldo-mariategui-el-monstruo-rojo-
contrataca-noticia/
(16) https://piensachile.com/2023/01/14/peru-conacami-anuncia-el-cierre-de-caminos-de-acceso-a-todas-las-empresas-
mineras-y-petroleras-del-pais/
(17) https://www.infobae.com/america/agencias/2023/01/15/el-presidente-petro-dice-que-revisara-la-titulacion-minera/
(18) https://www.elcolombiano.com/antioquia/anglo-gold-respondio-a-anuncios-de-petro-sobre-mineria-quebradona-no-
pone-en-riesgo-el-agua-de-jerico-ND20019466
(19) https://www.cochilco.cl/Paginas/Sala-de-Prensa/Noticias.aspx?ID=598
(20) https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/the-real-risks-facing-brazil-after-january-8/
(21) https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/major-ecuador-indigenous-group-threatens-anti-mining-protests-2023-
01-13/
(22) https://www.teleamazonas.com/guardia-indigena-ingreso-zonas-conflicto-minero/
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2022
Closed in 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
Goldshore Res GSHR.v Nov'22 C$0.18 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 88.9% Quick profit taken
Palamina Corp PA.v Dec'22 C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.08 -72.9% Clear-out of underperformer
Pure Gold PGM.h Dec'22 C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.015 -89.3% tiny trade on vh risk, went Ch11
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Set-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
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Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
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Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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