IKN #707Premium

The IKN Weekly
Week 707, December 4th 2022
Contents
This Week: Trade heads up, In Today’s Edition, So far so good, Third and final call for Basket
Cases.
Fundamental Analysis: Buying AbraSilver Resource Corp. (ABRA.v).
Stocks to Follow: Newcore Gold (NCAU.v), Electra Battery Materials (ELBM.v) (ELBM),
Contango Ore (CTGO), Orefinders (ORX.v), Western Copper & Gold (WRN.to), Minera Alamos
(MAI.v), Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v), Minera IRL (MIRL.cse), Amerigo Resources (ARG.to), Anacortes
Mining (XYZ.v).
Copper Basket: Overview, Copper Mountain (CMMC.to), Regulus Resources (REG.v), Element
29 (ECU.v).
Producer Basket: Overview, Newmont (NEM) and Barrick (GOLD).
TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Kingfisher Metals (KFR.v), Winshear Gold (WINS.v), Manitou
Gold (MTU.v).
Regional Politics: Colombia: Petro on the upcoming changes to the mining law, Chile: Mining
shows the country the way out of its recession, Mexico: Mixed signals from SEMARNAT, Peru:
The number 87.
Market Watching: Aldebaran Resources (ALDE.v) financials, Mene 3q22 financials, On last
week’s call to pass on a second Goldshore Resources (GSHR.v) trade.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
Trade heads up
Feel free to write in and remind me of everything I’ve written about never buying a silver stock
again, but I plan to buy into AbraSilver (ABRA.v) in the days ahead and in this case, the most
likely buying day is tomorrow. See today’s main Fundamentals section for more.
Also while we’re here, please note that I added to my position in Newcore Gold (NCAU.v) last
week and have added Contango Ore (CTGO) to the official Watch List. Please see today’s
Stocks to Follow notes for a little more on those decisions.
In Today’s Edition
 An upbeat and positive intro today, as we reach a verdict on our recent decision to start
buying back into the mining sector after spending a long part of 2022 keeping powder
dry. The intro note is called “So far so good”, which sums things up fairly well: a good
start but it’s a work in progress.
 Today’s main fundies section lays out why I’ve chosen AbraSilver (ABRA.v) as the
vehicle to extend my exposure to this nascent bull market for mining stocks. We take
plenty and read/written from previous and ongoing coverage of the stock this year and
get to the number-crunching and a price target for the proposed trade as quickly as
possible.
 Copper had a good week, even better when one considers the headwinds it managed
to ignore. I really like where Amerigo (ARG.to) and Western (WRN.to) are right now.
1

So far so good
You’ll have to forgive a little horn tooting in this weekend’s intro. After biding time and keeping
powder dry for what seemed like forever, in IKN701 dated October 23rd your author began to
‘stick his head above the parapet’ (quote/unquote) via small trades in Newcore Gold (NCAU.v)
and Goldshore Resources (GSHR.v) that weekend. And though we soon flipped the GSHR trade
back at the market for a quick win (see Market Watching below for another brief update), since
then we’ve also added Western Copper & Gold (WRN.to) and Orefinders (ORX.v) to the list, as
well as adding twice to the opening position in Newcore (NCAU.v, see Stocks to Follow today).
Today we continue the trend by biting the bullet and buying into a silver trade (and I know
what I said recently, but ABRA has become a compelling proposition at these prices) as well as
replacing Electra (ELBM.v) with Contango (CTGO) on the Watch List as we wait for that
company to come up with its deal to fund its end of the Manh Choh project.
And in that time, this is what the market has done:
That’s not a bad start. You could make the technical case for the bottom during the late
September dip, but after watching the miners bounce around for several months as they tried
to decide on a direction (we offer GDX and GDXJ for PM sector proxies, while COPX covers the
base metals) the period around that red line was when the tide finally turned and our squiggly
lines showed a true change in trend. That doesn’t mean that the way I’ve played the upturn is
optimum; far from it and I’m under no illusions about the way other stocks have performed
better than my personal picks, but the big call has gone the right way so far and I’m pleased
about that because as market advisory services go, getting the big call right is the most useful
thing for its readers.
As for the IKN Weekly stock picks, they continue to conform to my own tastes with the largest
trades in what I consider as companies with strong fundamentals, I look for backbone and
downside limitation in our most volatile of sub-sectors which is why Amerigo Resources
(ARG.to) is my largest copper play, why Minera Alamos (MAI.v) is the largest of all, why
Western Copper (WRN.to) is the biggest recent addition, etc. This means there will always be
better performers to point to in the early stages of a trend change and the combination of
highly beaten down/highly promoted/financially less secure companies will get more percentage
bang from their floor prices as the market turns around. I could cite dozens of examples, here
(right) just one that’s “dear to my heart” (as it were). McEwen Mining (MUX) is up 75% from
the start of November, so well done all those who
claim to have bought at the very bottom, you’re
braver than I will ever be. You’re also welcome to
the trade, because I’ll stick to my plan and not
expose the thicker end of my money to companies
that are one NR away from a reversal and even
when I’m looking at a smaller and riskier trade,
there are better options.
We mention the rally and turnaround in our sector
2

this weekend due to the action we witnessed last week, so here’s a ten-day chart to help the
narrative:
We again include GDX, COPX and GLD in the visual, but this time add the Dow (DJIA) to show
that the broad markets also support the rally in mining equities (to a lesser extent) and the US
Dollar index (DXY) that reflects the healthy way in which gold is trading, despite the way Wall
St. continues to ignore bullion (our GLD tracking charts (below) show how inventories flatlined
last week and the ratio pumbed new depths). That will change and when it does, there will be
even more reason to be long the gold sector but for the time being, we can bask in the purely
positive monetary causes to the current rally in mining stocks.
GLD gold holdings, 2022 YTD (metric tonnes)
1140
1120
1100
1080
1060
1040
1020
1000
980
960
940
920
900
880
860
Last week’s rally took a knock on Friday morning when a hotter than expected US BLS jobs
number sent another batch of “stubborn inflation” vibes through the market, at least for
morning trading, but even that was eventually brushed aside as the market continued to take
its main cue from the speech given by FedHead Powell on Wednesday and for that, we dial up
good old mainstream CNBC (1):
“Despite some promising developments, we have a long way to go in restoring price
stability,” Powell said in remarks delivered at the Brookings Institution.
The chairman noted that policy moves such as interest rate increases and the
reduction of the Fed’s bond holdings generally take time to make their way through the
system.
“Thus, it makes sense to moderate the pace of our rate increases as we approach the
level of restraint that will be sufficient to bring inflation down,” he added. “The time for
moderating the pace of rate increases may come as soon as the December meeting.”
Wall Street applauded the remarks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 737
points, or 2.18%, to snap a three-session losing streak. Tech stocks fared even better,
with the Nasdaq Composite roaring 4.41% higher.
And as the note continued to explain, the market took that as a clear signal the Fed would dial
back its rate rises, with 0.5% now slated in for the December FOMC in ten days’ time (the
presser is due December 14th).
“The on-the-day equity market surge is in part a relief rally,” wrote Krishna Guha, head
3
12/21/13 22/1/01 22/1/02 22/1/03 22/2/9 22/2/91 22/3/1 22/3/11 22/3/12 22/3/13 22/4/01 22/4/02 22/4/03 22/5/01 22/5/02 22/5/03 22/6/9 22/6/91 22/6/92 22/7/9 22/7/91 22/7/92 22/8/8 22/8/81 22/8/82 22/9/7 22/9/71 22/9/72 22/01/7 22/01/71 22/01/72 22/11/6 22/11/61 22/11/62
mt 6.50 GLD: Inventory/Price Ratio, 2022 YTD
6.40
6.30
6.20
6.10
6.00
5.90
5.80
5.70
5.60
5.50
5.40
source: SPDR GLD data 5.30
13/21/1202 01/1/2202 02/1/2202 03/1/2202 9/2/2202 91/2/2202 1/3/2202 11/3/2202 12/3/2202 13/3/2202 01/4/2202 02/4/2202 03/4/2202 01/5/2202 02/5/2202 03/5/2202 9/6/2202 91/6/2202 92/6/2202 9/7/2202 91/7/2202 92/7/2202 8/8/2202 81/8/2202 82/8/2202 7/9/2202 71/9/2202 72/9/2202 7/01/2202 71/01/2202 72/01/2202 6/11/2202 61/11/2202 62/11/2202
Source: SPDR data, IKN calcs

of global policy and central bank strategy at Evercore ISI. “Many investors feared the
Fed chair would take a max hawkish sledgehammer to the recent easing of financial
conditions ... That overhang has now gone.
What struck this desk about last week’s market reaction, typified by the above remark, are the
concepts of “fear” and “relief” because way back in IKN701 on October 23rd we’d already
established the Fed’s likely course of action. Here’s an excerpt of that edition’s main intro note,
The hammer is the only tool:
“…a word on the so-called “Fed Whisperer” journalist behind that note is required as
Nick Timiraos is now firmly part of the Fed’s jawbone apparatus. Noted for over a year
as having his finger so exactly on the pulse of the Federal Reserve that it’s widely
assumed he’s getting tip-offs, his notes on the Fed are widely read and while the
0.75% prediction is nothing new, the emphasis placed on the way the Fed is looking to
slow down the pace of hikes as from December was the signal the market needed to
rally.”
We finished that note with, “And that means it may well be time to buy some risk assets. See
below for more” then laid out the case for buying Newcore Gold (NCAU.v) and Goldshore
Resources (GSHR.v) for leverage on a gold sector rebound. In other words, we made the right
call at the right time and for the right reasons and last week, the market underscored that
we’re on the right track. What’s left is for gold to stop being merely “the AntiDollar” and start
out-performing the Greenback, which is why we’ve closely tracked sentiment toward bullion via
our GLD tracking charts. We know sentiment for gold ownership is now at multi-year lows and
when that reverts (and it will), expect gold to bring new impetus to the equities we own and
follow.
In other words, today’s intro title may be “so far so good” but the best is yet to come, which is
why today’s main Fundamentals note exists. See below.
Third and final call for Basket Cases
We’ve run this segment for the last two editions, this is the third and final call for your
suggestions for our three representative baskets for next year, 2023. I again thank those
readers who have taken the time and trouble to write in with suggestions and I’m happy to say
this desk has decent long lists for all three lists, but it’s not too late to come up with a new idea
and there’s always space to improve matters, so you’re again encouraged to write in.
Now for a final reminder of the framework: Every November/December, your author puts
together a long list (then a short list) of stocks for our three tracking baskets for the year to
come, namely The Copper Basket, Producer Basket Tiny Caps Basket. Every year sees
companies leave the lists and replaced by others, so the list of the companies to be swapped
out done, what we need are replacements. However, before making the final list we open to
the floor and ask for suggestions for the readership, which are greatly appreciated because
without fail, there are always some ideas that are better than mine. Here’s how the choices
happen for the three and a reminder of what type of company we need in each list:
 For The Copper Basket: We look for a group of 15 stocks that as a whole represent the
junior copper mining world. The maximum market cap is $1Bn, but preferably I like
them lower to better reflect our sector of interest. We welcome tinycaps, as a cross
section is required. As we’re not trying to beat the street and want a faithful reflection
of the sector, always happy to include bad copper companies or dog stocks if they bring
something to the table.
 For The Producer Basket: There is no upper limit in market cap size, but we do require
a minimum market cap of U$2Bn. For this list, I’m looking for suggestions for precious
metals producers that will out-perform in 2020, because of the less important (except
for my own ego) of trying to beat the GDX benchmark on the year.
 For The Tiny Caps: First and foremost, for this list we require companies with a market
cap of $20m maximum, as The TinyCaps tracks market moves of the smallest
companies. However, at this level of market cap there are many broken stocks and
dead companies with projects going nowhere. They are not interesting, as although we
4

cannot expect operational or managerial perfection at this level the company still needs
to “have a pulse” and be a reasonable trade or speculative alternative.
I normally look to change between three and five companies on each list, though as this year
has seen quite a few tinycap and copper exploreco stocks get broken, I may need a couple
more for those lists So if you have a good candidate for the Producer, Copper or TinyCap lists,
be they companies you own or not (or if it’s a doggish type of idea, perhaps “owned”) please
drop a line the usual addresses. Thanks in advance for any and all suggestions received and
expect this intro note to run next weekend, as well. Thanks in advance for your replies and
thoughts.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Buying AbraSilver Resource Corp. (ABRA.v)
This is not going to come as a surprise to many people reading these pages, the only question I
have is whether my incursion into a company with “silver” in its corporate title is going to turn
out to be a hex again, but fortunately I’m not superstitious. It’s unlucky to be superstitious.
That’s the end of the jokes, time to get serious and in the week ahead and most probably
tomorrow morning, your author will pull the trigger and buy into AbraSilver (ABRA.v), a
company that’s had plenty of exposure on these pages already this year. Here’s a quick re-cap
of the main ABRA write-ups (feel free to ask for copies, will send by return):
 In IKN675 dated April 24th 2022 we began coverage in the note “Buying Abrasilver
Resource Corp (ABRA.v)”. At that time precious metals were still riding the Ukraine invasion
wave and the Fed’s policy track for the years still hadn’t bitten into mining stocks. We
bought ABRA as a second string silver play to sit behind Discovery Silver (DSV.v)
 In IKN678 dated May 15th and the note “Trimming the sails”, we sold ABRA after the quick
reversal and trend change in mining stocks forced defensive measures. However, we never
lost sight of ABRA and as 2022 unfolded, the company continued to impress with its
exploration results from its Diablillos project in Salta, Argentine.
 Then in IKN698 dated October 2nd 2022 the coverage came in the note “Revisiting
Abrasilver (ABRA.v)”, which got us up to date with the improving story to that time and put
it back on the radar.
 The most recent extended coverage came in IKN703 dated November 6th and the note in
Market Watching, “Abrasilver (ABRA.v) delivers its resource upgrade”. That day we reported
on its updated Mineral Resource Estimate (MRE) and were suitably impressed (2).
That brings us up to date with IKN coverage of ABRA so far, the only large piece missing
happened last Tuesday, November 29th when the company announced (3) an “$8 Million
"Bought Deal" Private Placement”, with the book run by Eight Capital.
The offering is for 21,622m units, with each unit containing one share and a half warrant with a
50c strike price and a two year shelf life. However there’s also a 25% overallotment facility with
this bought deal and as we fully expect that to fill, we now assume 27,027,500 units are sold
for a gross proceeds total of C$10m (plus one hundred and seventy-five dollars). As for the
reasons behind the deal, here are the CEO comments from the NR:
John Miniotis, President and CEO stated: “We are very pleased to announce this
financing which will further strengthen our balance sheet and provide us with additional
financial flexibility to pursue our mineral resource growth objectives. This financing
secures the capital required for the Company to continue to rapidly grow and advance
our flagship Diablillos Project, as well as follow-up drilling on our prospective La Coipita
project.”
We’ll get back to that in a moment, first we incorporate our assumptions and offer the new,
pro-rata structure topbox for ABRA:
5

Shares out: 522.31m
Options: 24.4m
Warrants: 58.28m
RSUs: 4.36m
Fully diluted: 609.35m
Current share price: C$0.38
Market Cap: C$198.48m
Approx cash per S/O: 3.3c
All prices are in Canadian Dollars unless stated. Forex U$0.80=CAD$1
This weekend’s C$0.38 share price means, by and large, that ABRA has flat-lined its way
through 2022 (chart below left) and not many silver explorecos can put “UNCH” next to their
name this year, testament to its impressive 2022 drill campaign. We’ve covered those items in
the previous coverage notes of the stock (see above) and I don’t plan to do much re-hashing
today, instead we focus on the present and future. First we offer you the chart below right and
consider the recent price action compared to the main silver stocks ETF (SIL):
From out-performing SIL handily all year, ABRA.v has suddenly lagged and that was brought to
a head last week by the bought deal announcement. That was possibly unlucky timing for
current shareholders but that also means it was lucky for anyone looking to buy in at these
levels, e.g. me. As the placement is scheduled to close this coming week on December 6th, the
likelihood of a successful closing and positive reaction to the ness is high, as are the chances
that ABRA now plays catch-up to its peers.
That’s one of the reasons why I’m keen on buying in as soon as tomorrow Monday, but the
fundamental background has to be right with any given trade and for that, we return to our
updated financial tracking charts. We quickly offer an overview of balance sheet items on the
way to what matters, liquidity and how it’s likely to be used:
ABRA.v: Assets
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
ABRA still expenses its exploration so it doesn’t show up in the assets charts much, however its
6
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 tse22q4 tse32q1 tse32q2
$m ABRA.v: Liabilities per qtr
10
fixed 9
other current 8
cash 7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
source: company filings
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 tse22q4 tse32q1 tse32q2
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
LT liabs
current liabs

liabilities are tiny and that’s all we really need to know at this point; clean and healthy books.
What matters more is the cash position and how long its treasury will last:
The expected arrival of C$10m next week boosts our end year cash assumption to C$17.7m
and as we expect ABRA to drill aggressively at Diablillos in 2023, as well as running the drills at
its earlier stage La Coipita copper target also in Argentina, that is likely to be burned quickly.
These next charts show the rhythm of exploration and evaluation burn (below left) and
corporate admin line items (below right) over the last four years and demonstrate the
acceleration in activity clearly. ABRA will have the same type of burn in 2023.
Here’s how those two charts above combine and while there are a couple of items not included,
this is a better guide to cash burn than following its net loss number. We expect ABRA to run a
burn rate of something around C$2m per month and that means its cash will get it to around
this time next year.
ABRA.v: Admin, Exploration/Evaluation expenses
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
7
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 tse22q4 tse32q1 tse32q2
24 ABRA.v: Working Capital per qtr
22
20
18 16
14
12 10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
$m
eval & exp
total admin exp
source: company filings/IKN ests
However that’s fine by us, because by then we should have a new resource estimate for
Diablillos which combines the known entity of the main Oculto deposit with the newly
discovered and exciting South West Zone, that now also goes under the name of “JAC”. The
company plan is to get to a maiden resource estimate for the JAC zone by the end of Q2 2023
(i.e. in six months time) and from there, it will begin work on a Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS) that
will almost certainly combine Oculto with JAC and begin to reveal the true economic importance
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 tse22q4 tse32q1 tse32q2
source company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
ABRA.v: Cash treasury per qtr
26
24
22
20 18
16
14 12
10
8
6
4
2
0
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 tse22q4 tse32q1 tse32q2
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
C$m ABRA: exploration and evaluation expenses, per qtr ABRA.v: Admin expenses
8 1.8
other 1.6 7
other La Coipita 1.4
6 Drilling La Coipita 1.2
5 other Diablillos 1
4 Drilling Diablillos 0.8
3 0.6
0.4
2
0.2
1
0
0
1q20 2q20 3q20 4q20 1q21 2q21 3q21 4q21 1q22 2q22 3q22
source: company filings, IKN calcs
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3
C$m
other exp
share payments
salaries etc
prof fee
G&A
consult fee
source: company filings

of this project. On this, I’m going to offer two visuals today and the first is a repeat from our
note on the current resource, as per IKN703:
The MRE has expanded significantly and Oculto now has 51.3m tonnes of ore grading an
average of 66 g/t silver and 0.79 g/t gold. To repeat a message from IKN703, just those grades
of gold are enough to build a successful and profitable open pit mine, this project comes with
over 2oz/t silver as well.
The second image is ripped straight from the latest ABRA corporate presentation and while the
dimension comparatives are slightly hokey (“Oculto is “most of a CN Tower Deep” and SW zone
/ JAC is “four Rogers Centres Long”), what this does is give a nice 3D representation of the
Oculto deposit and how SW/JAC extends along strike from the known mineralization. It’s not
difficult to put together some
easy new open pit shell
assumptions that capture
more of the deep (and highest
grading) rock in Oculto,
thanks to the extension of
mining along the SW zone.
All this tells your author that
while ABRA at Diablillos is
already big, it’s about to get
bigger and the proximity of
the 2023 drill targets are also
highly likely to improve
project economics. All these
things are very good things
and go a long way in backing
our assumption that the
current PEA parameters are going to be left in the dust.
Valuing Abrasilver (ABRA.v)
Which brings us to the section that was missing from IKN703 and the day we considered its
new MRE. Today we run some new and updated assumptions on Diablillos and as you’ll
hopefully see, even by taking a conservative route to data inputs we are left with a highly
robust mine model that values ABRA shares much higher than today’s C$0.38. Here’s a list of
variables:
 We value La Coipita at zero. I got some pushback from this audience when first talking about
ABRA La Coipita and I agree it’s early stage, the mineralization seems to be deep and it might
not work out, so we currently assume zero dollars and zero cents to the project. If something
8

works out then all well and good, but for the moment our focus is firmly fixed on Diablillos.
 For Diablillos, we assume the new 51.3mt resource gives a mine that runs for 14 years at
10,000 tonnes per day. That’s higher than the current 7ktpd company model and we base our
number firmly on the new MRE, but please note that if and when SW Zone/JAC starts to add
tonnage this project is likely to become larger still (either in daily throughput or mine life). At
this point, please note for comparative purposes that the neighbouring Lindero open pit gold
mine operated by Fortuna Silver (FVI.to) (FSM) runs at 17,000 tonnes per day and has an
effective 9 year mine life at those rates, with another four years of final production slated on
the end of those. Also, , it may be worth noting that Lindero is carried by FSM at around
U$570m on its books, that Diablillos is already 1.5X the size of Lindero in gold equivalent
terms and the South West Zone aka “JAC Target” threatens to make the resource
substantially larger once the current drilling campaign is incorporated into the resource.
 As for grades and recoveries, we go with the ABRA averages and current assumptions for the
entire mineralization, instead of the higher grades expected from the first five years of
production, in order to keep our numbers on the conservative side. That means for silver, 66
g/t at a recovery of 73.5% and for gold, 0.79 g/t at 86% recoveries
 We assume a cash cost of U$9.80/oz silver equivalent on a co-product basis. As you’ll see the
name “AbraSilver” may turn out to be slightly misleading as due to the improving resource for
gold and current prices, Diablillos economics are now split approximately 50/50 between gold
and silver (and there’s even a slight bias toward gold at the price assumptions). If you prefer,
this puts gold equivalent cost at around U$850/oz or just over U$1,000/oz AISC, which is
bang in line with the results form Lindero. These are real world assumptions.
 We assume a TC/RC of 15%, which is probably too high for a precious metals mine that is
likely to produce doré on-site, but we like conservative. Then to those, we assume the
following price models:
 Stress Test: We assume silver at $18/oz and gold at U$1,600/oz to check
whether Diablillos holds up at a lower price deck.
 Baseline: We assume silver at $22/oz and gold at U$1,700/oz and for what
it’s worth, I’m using this for the eventual price target
 Current: We assume silver at $24/oz and gold at U$1,800/oz which may be
slightly more than the current spot prices for both metals, but it gives a
reasonable idea of the near-term upside and what’s more, these numbers are
not used to generate today’s price target
 Bluesky: We assume silver at $26/oz and gold at U$2,000/oz because it’s
nice to do these things.
Here’s the first table, showing projected revenues per model year:
ABRA: Model year revenues by metal type (U$m)
Price decks stress baseline current bluesky
Gold prod (oz) 78,644 78,644 78,644 78,644
U$/oz 1,600 1,700 1,800 2,000
Au revs (U$m) 125.8 133.7 141.6 157.3
silver Moz 5.62 5.62 5.62 5.62
Ag U$/oz 18.0 22.0 24.0 26.0
Ag revs (U$m) 101.1 123.5 134.8 146.0
Gross revs (U$m) 226.9 257.2 276.3 303.3
TC/RC (U$m) (34.0) (38.6) (41.4) (45.5)
Net sales(U$m) $191 $216 $233 $255
Sources: ABRA.v data, IKN calcs and ests
9

At our preferred baseline price deck (blue shaded) we get a net sales number of U$216m,
which then moves to the top line of our condensed incomes statement. Here we subtract our
COGS assumption (above) as well as a few more things, all reasonable assumptions for an open
pit mining operation such as this:
ABRA: Condensed income statement (U$m)
Ag U$/oz stress baseline current bluesky
Sales (U$m) 190.9 216.5 232.5 255.2
Cash COGS 109.5 109.5 109.5 109.5
Depreciation 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0
G&A 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0
fin. Costs 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0
royalty 1.9 2.2 2.3 2.6
Op income 46.5 71.8 87.7 110.1
Exploration 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0
Tax 12.2 19.7 24.5 31.2
Net income 28.4 46.0 57.2 72.9
Shares out (m) 522 522 522 522
EPS 0.05 0.09 0.11 0.14
Capex 12 12 12 12
FCF 0.11 0.14 0.16 0.19
Sources: ABRA data, IKN estimates
As usual, the operating income number interests us ABRA.v: Shares Out
more than any theoretical net profit, as Diablillos is
likely to become one mine held by a multi-mine
operator company (and for a candidate, look no
further than Fortuna Silver (FSM) for the most
obvious potential buyer). We then assume the current share count of 522.3m
and while it’s up for debate as to whether ABRA
stays at that number of shares in the future, as
we’re using a 12 month timespan for our target
price, we assume Diablillos takes on debt to
construct and right now ABRA is now nicely cashed
up, I don’t think I can be accused of “over-optimization” on this line item. So we move swiftly
to our target price box:
Sales & earnings model U$/oz Au prices Target price & valuation data for ABRA based on
Ag spot (U$) 18 22 24 26 LoM avg production of 5.62m oz Ag and 78.6k oz Au per year
Sales (U$m) 190.9 216.5 232.5 255.2 12-month target $0.75 based on 4x FCF
Upside to target 96% U$22/oz Ag & U$1,700/oz Au
EPS 0.05 0.09 0.11 0.14 Mkt cap (CAD$m) $198 Enterprise value $181
FCF 0.11 0.14 0.16 0.19 P/sales (18) 0.92 EV/sales (18) n/a
P/E (18) 7.0 EV/EBITDA (18) n/a
P/E (22) 4.3 EV/EBITDA (22) 2.1
P/E (24) 3.5 EV/EBITDA (24) 1.8
There’s no PFs on Diablillos yet and we still don’t know the full parameters of the resource on
which any mine will be modelled, so there’s no way we can assign the type of high
price/earnings multiple that late stage or even working silver mines get (they can command
16X and 20X, I’ve never really understood why). So we keep things low and go for 4X on Free
Cash Flow but even then and while not pushing the window on metals prices either (we use
U$22/oz silver and U$1,700/oz gold) the generated target is C$0.75, representing an upside of
10
67.942 67.942 67.472 004
82.904 80.724 87.154 47.854 20.574 33.084 53.784 22.594 52.225 3.225 3.225 3.225
600
550
500
450
400
350
300 250
200 150
100
50
0
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 tse22q4 tse32q1 tse32q2 tse32q3
source: company filings
serahs
fo
snoillim

965 to this weekend’s share price.
In other words, this is a double.
Discussion and conclusion
AbraSilver (ABRA.v) started the year by standing out from the pack of silver juniors, something
that’s arguably not too difficult as most silver explorecos are mediocrity defined. However,
ABRAS started 2022 good and got better as the year progressed, thanks to a highly successful
drilling campaign that has expanded the resource and brought evidence of it being a coherent
and reliable orebody, the type that makes straightforward and economically robust mines.
We’re also in a good location to build a mine these days, as Argentina is still a trappy place in
some respects but as long as your in the right province, it’s becoming friendlier toward the
industry by the month and these days gets full support from national and local politicians, as
well as a general public who see mining as a source of valuable jobs. Most importantly, thanks
to the “New Green Deal” promotion, mining is losing its environmental stigma in the country
and these days is considered a key part of the logistic of the brighter and cleaner future (as it
should be when mining is done well).
So the macro stage works, the project economics work and the impressive expansion of the
resource (with more to come) has added value to the company, the missing piece was always
the metals prices and with those going into bullish mode, it’s time to go back and open
exposure to the potentially lucrative world of silver juniors. Other can go for the dogs of the
sector, I much prefer buying quality and that’s what ABRA offers, as the Diablillos project has
“this is a mine” written all over it, unlike most of the pipe-in-the-sky offerings from silver
explorecos. What’s more, thanks to the recent bought deal we get to buy in at sub-40c levels
and with the treasury now full for the 2023 campaign, this trade currently ticks all the boxes I
need from a “silver story” to be tempted back in; it even gets half of its model revenues from
gold.
I am a buyer of AbraSilver (ABRA.v) in the week ahead and as noted above, will probably
purchase before the current bought deal is closed on Tuesday. ABRA will become one of the
recommended stocks on the Stock to Follow list as from next weekend. And please don’t fight
for an entry price, there’s plenty of sub-40c shares for everyone until the placement closes.
Stocks to Follow
It was a positive week for the Stocks to Follow list and even better for the personal back
pocket, as the four week-over-week losers on the list (ALDE.v, PA.v, ATC.v, XYZ.v) were either
minor holdings or part of the Watch List. There were three other unchanged stocks (QCCU.v,
ORX.v, PGM-h) and that leaves nine winners (MAI.v, ARG.to, WRN.to, RIO.v, NCAU.v, CKG.v,
ARN.v, MIRL.cse, MENE.v) that included plenty of big percentage moves. Best in pure
percentage terms were Minera IRL (MIRL.cse up 37.5%) and Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v up 21.4%) but
the real good news came from our Top Pick Minera Alamos (MAI.v up 18.4%) that put in a
move at the right time as the persistent seller dried up. We also appreciated the solid gains in
Western Copper & Gold (WRN.to up 9.0%), Chesapeake Gold (CKG.v up 8.9%) and Amerigo
Resources (ARG.to up 7.9%)
With the addition of ORX to the list we now have 17 stocks on the list (13 owned), which will
drop back to 16 this time next week. There are now in the green and one unchanged, so the
count is slightly better but there’s still plenty of ground to make up.
11

company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.45 114.3% $0.75 first tgt, #1 idea
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Amerigo Res ARG.to STR BUY C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.37 0.7% CheapCu w/low downside risk
Western Copper WRN.to BUY C$2.02 13-Nov-22 C$2.30 13.9% New trade, watched for months
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v BUY C$0.275 25-Apr-21 C$0.16 -41.8% Now drilling. Easy hold
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v HOLD C$0.83 22-Apr-18 C$0.17 -79.5% Cheap on permit probs, appeal
SPECULATIVE TRADES
Newcore Gold NCAU.v BUY C$0.20 23-Oct-22 C$0.215 7.5% Near-term spec trade
Orefinders ORX.v.v ADDING C$0.04 23-Oct-22 C$0.045 12.5% plan to build position
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v SPEC BUY C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$2.20 -28.3% Au leverage, small trade so far
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v BUY C$0.72 16-May-21 C$0.73 1.4% trying patience
Palamina Corp PA.v SPEC BUY C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.09 -69.5% Au expl in S.Peru
Altiplano Metals APN.v HOLD C$0.31 17-Sep-21 C$0.16 -48.4% Cheap entry, plan on track.
Pure Gold PGM.h hold C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.015 -89.3% tiny trade, hit Ch11 wall
Minera IRL MIRL.cse avoid C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.055 -71.8% run into ground by CEO
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
ATAC Res ATC.v WATCH C$0.095 11-Sep-22 C$0.08 -15.8% Cheap Yukon neighbour play
Contango Ore CTGO WATCH U$23.25 2-Dec-22 U$23.25 0.0% Dropping from watch list
Anacortes Mining XYZ.v WATCH C$0.49 22-Jul-22 C$0.47 -4.1% potential gold exploreco trade
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.66 6-Dec-20 C$0.44 -33.3% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
Goldshore Res GSHR.v Nov'22 C$0.18 23-Oct-22 C$0.34 88.9% Quick profit taken
2015 to 2021 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for a few notes on some of the covered companies:
Newcore Gold (NCAU.v): ADDED. I wasn’t expecting to do so, but when the market starting
rocking and NCAU and continued to lag peers last week, instead of diving straight into ABRA
and while waiting for the stubborn ORX trade to fill (see below), it became something of a no-
brainer to go back to the well on this trade a third time and add again, snipping almost a penny
from my personal cost average along the way (but I’ll use 20c from here on…easier). Along the
way, I also pinged company CEO Luke Alexander and asked how the work on the resource
update (MRE) was going and was told that the “consultants are working hard to get it
completed, but that said I don’t think I’ve ever come across a consultant who delivers anything
on time”.
I sympathize with that. NCAU has booked a couple of webinar slots in the days to come, with
this (4) next week on December 8th and this (5) in two Mondays’ time on the 12th (8). We may
get the MRE before then, we may get it by the end of December as per the schedule, we may
12

have to wait until early January but even if the company annoys us with a late delivery, deliver
it will and when they do, expect the Enchi resource to climb above 2m oz gold.
As the chart below left comparing NCAU to GDXJ, the stock finally picked up a few bids on
Thursday and Friday but, as the same comparative over a longer period shows (below right),
NCAU has a lot of catching up left to do compared to its peers. I expect this stock to do just
that, it’s a quality story with real people running the company who have their own skin firmly in
the game; this isn’t some two-bit suspect exploreco with a marginal resource, but its small and
rather under the radar profile lends itself to lagging peers. This is an advantage for us, as
there’s a window of opportunity now to fill up before it catches up.
Electra Battery Materials (ELBM.v) (ELBM): Removed from Watch List. A short line to
confirm that as per the comment from last weekend, ELBM has been dropped from the Watch
List. I’m going to keep an eye on the company and if things go well, I wouldn’t have a problem
in eating some words from this current level and finally buying some shares (even at a higher
level). However and for the time being, this isn’t enough of a mining company and its story isn’t
going well enough to justify its continued presence in 2023. I’d love to see its Stage one trails
work well and happen on time, but there’s now a clear risk that the company will need to raise
more money in a difficult market and as the last small raising was prohibitive expensive, there’s
clear risk to the equity price.
Contango Ore (CTGO): ADDED TO WATCH LIST. Replacing ELBM is a company that has
been under soft coverage for over a year (November 2021, in fact). Today’s note is more a
heads-up of its inclusion on the table (as from this weekend), rather than a new look into its
projects and prospects as a trade, but the quick reminder is:
 Manh Choh has been green-lighted by majority JV partner Kinross and will happen
 CTGO needs to cover its end of the capex, which is not a big amount but the deal still
needs to be done. We await to see the terms.
 At its current share price, CTGO is cheap on the expected returns from its minority
stake in Manh Choh alone. However, its other projects and in particular Lucky Shot
have the potential to add plenty of upside as well
The reason to add CTGO to the Watch List today is to keep the trade idea on the front boiler
and as an obvious candidate for a new trade, but for the moment “watch list” means exactly
that as I’m keen to see the terms and
conditions of its eventual raise. Once that’s out
in the open, we’ll be able to see how much is
left on the bone for us, the retail grunts. The 12
month price chart Right) shows how CTGO
went through a boost period in September this
year when its CEO Rick van Alphabet did the
marketing rounds and put in a concerted effort
to get the story out there, as well as getting a
couple of newsletter writers to talk up the
13

company to its readership (and bought in, I believe). That was also the last time we mentioned
the stock on these pages, back in the note “Contango Ore (CTGO): Why I am still watching
without buying” in IKN696, dated September
18th 2022. On that day we went through the
reasons why the financing of Manh Choh was
important and we assumed it would need to
cover 30% of the top-end estimate for
construction of U$190m, i.e. U$57m. That’s a lot
of cash for a little junior and the terms of the
deal will be important. The other thing that
catches the eye after its recent price pop’n’drop
is how CTGO has gone back to its bad habit of
“trading buy appointment, as this ten-day chart
(right) shows. Until liquidity improves, it won’t be
easy to buy in therefore, we watch before we
buy and hope that RvN announces a retail-
friendly deal sooner, rather than later.
Orefinders (ORX.v): Annoyingly however, I’m still trying to buy mine. ORX traded thinly but
stubbornly at 4.5c all week and refused to consider my 4c
offers, even though the hotpot cousin stock that set off its
recent revival, American Eagle (AE.v), traded softly on
profit-taking (and another Ore Group stock without direct
connection to ORX, Baselode (FIND.v), announced a flow
thru bought deal at a discount that sank the stock price).
Therefore I thought I’d get my ORX at my price but was
wrong, so that sucks but equally, there’s still no reason to
bid up in December as it would only take one modestly
sized seller using ORX for their Tax Loss trade to see it
drop. Therefore I apply patience and mark time while the
above market price remains more theory than practice.
Western Copper & Gold (WRN.to): I was surprised to see WRN trade lower during the first
two days of last week and once it had recovered, said as much on the open blog on Thursday
(6). There was no real reason why WRN dropped on
Monday and Tuesday vs copper (HG00), the only thought I
had was of a market that read the RTZ news of the
previous Wednesday as a negative. Therefore, seeing the
stock price rally from midweek onward was pleasant to
witness (and something of a personal relief) and now, the
extension of strategic agreement with RTZ is seen as the
positive it most certainly is. It’s now up to WRN to get the
word out while moving forward with its environmental
permitting track next year and get the stock to a price that’s
biddable for RTZ (or other). As for me, if it runs quickly to
the historic ceiling price of C$3-or-abouts I would not be
against taking profits. This story is a bit of a poker game and is set to run through all next year
and I’ll watch its trading price as much as its fundamental development.
Minera Alamos (MAI.v): So much for my musings at the end of last week’s note on MAI and
its 3q22 numbers. You may recall that we’d received word that a large insto had been selling a
19m share position, that it had maybe 4m shares left to dump and while there was light at the
end of the tunnel for we long-suffering longs, I assumed a “continued rough passage through
the Tax Loss Selling season”, that selling “should be done by the New Year” and used the “hang
in there a while longer” cliché on you.
It turns out we didn’t need to wait for the first week of January, the first week of December
14

was enough:
So, a good week for the Top Pick as the seller finally dried up and the good timing of the seller
leaving as the sector popped higher. Personally it suits me as I’m very overweight MAI and
deploying my cash in other places, but there’s every reason to expect MAI higher as the good
news rolls out in the weeks ahead.
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v): The corporate update from the company on Monday morning (7) covered
five subjects via different headings:
 CHILE’S CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM PROCESS
 PRESIDENT BORIC RESHUFFLES CABINET MINISTERS
 THE CHILEAN GOVERNMENT LAUNCHES NEW PLAN TO STIMULATE INVESTMENT IN
CHILE
 MANAGEMENT CHANGES
 ROYALTY SALE
Of the five, the confirmation that the $5m royalty sale was a positive, while the most
substantive was the commentary on the “Let’s Invest in Chile” stimulus package and how RIO.v
sees it benefiting from the initiative. Please see the full NR for details, but the company believes
that six of the 28 may help them:
 InvestChile investment attaché offices will be reopened abroad.
 Strengthening of the InvestChile investment promotion team.
 Funding for strengthening critical services in the processing of projects.
 A coordinating agency will be created
 Public/private initiatives for promoting investment.
 Formation of a regional public investment operating committee under the coordination
of the Economy Ministry
They also noted that the company had been “extremely proactive in coordinating meetings with
government ministries and government authorities both regionally and nationally to present our
case in preparation for the appeals process”. They don’t have a date for the appeals process as
yet but that’s a minor point, as we know Anglo at Los Bronces is first in the queue and Fenix
won’t get its hearing until that larger capex project’s appeal is heard.
However, the only item people talked about (with me at least) was this:
“Rio2 is pleased to announce the promotion of Andrew Cox to President & CEO, from
his current role as Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer.
Alex Black, the Company’s current President & CEO, is assuming a newly created role
as Executive Chairman…”
The management re-shuffle also sees Klaus Zeitler step down a rung and become Lead Director
and Jose Luis Martinez leaving the company. Understandably, the casual observer of the
company may have read this as Alex Black stepping aside or down, but when I saw the news
my first reaction was “logical”. For one, as COO Andrew Cox has been the person doing the
day-to-day running of the nuts and bolts business end of RIO.v for a while and this change is
more a case of making his role more official than any big change. Secondly, this now allows
15

Alex Black to concentrate on his best skill set and coordinate with corporate stakeholders, as
well as lightening his own workload. Finally, seeing Zeitler move to one side and Martinez move
on makes sense as an obvious cost cutting measure and I later found out that José Luis
Martínez had a new challenge in mind, so the decision was mutual. So overall while it came as a
slight surprise, it didn’t shock and RIO.v will likely gain from these changes.
As for trading, the stock finally found a little traction and it’s good to report that it manages to
break out of the 11c to 15c range we’d been stuck in. The Friday close of 17c is still nobody’s
idea of a win and even my mooted 25c is still a long way away. But it’s a start.
Minera IRL (MIRL.cse): A technical rebound last week on
thin volume as the seller disappeared, which made the
+37.5% increase more impressive on paper than the penny
and a half added in real life. This week sees the MIRL AGM,
at which no difficult questions will be asked, not even of the
“new director” Martin Mount who, according to the
Management Information Circular, attended zero of seven
board meetings this year.
The only thing that matters here are the quarterly financials
and they are getting worse by the quarter.
Amerigo Resources (ARG.to): The NR from ARG last week (8) announcing the renewal of its
Normal Course Issuer Bid (NCIB) share buyback program came as a surprise to precisely
nobody. Here’s a short excerpt:
Under the NCIB Amerigo may purchase up to 11,080,000 common shares
(representing 6.67% of its 166,032,658 common shares outstanding as at November
18, 2022) over a period of twelve months commencing on December 2, 2022.
The other thing that won’t surprise readers is the way ARG responded as the price of copper
moved to and then above the key U$3.80/lb level, as this company has told anyone who’d listen
that it’s the price level at which it can begin to factor in its extra layers of shareholder returns,
either via the NCIB or via bonus dividends, or both. It was also telling to see ARG rally after its
Novembeer 30th shareholder of record date, as there are clearly precious few holders only
trying to cream off the 3c quarterly dividend then move on.
ARG is in great shape at these copper prices and it’s good to see a little splash of green on its
line item above, it’s been far too long. Even without the likely addition of the buybacks and
eventually the bonus divi, ARG is still running an 8.8% yield on its standard dividend.
Anacortes Mining (XYZ.v): The NR out of XYZ last week (9) is worthy of closer consideration
for two reasons
1) Its strategic review has brought a serious buyer to the table, which is almost certainly
its Chinese capitals neighbour Boroo, owners of Lagunas Norte next door.
2) They were a little naïve to assume they wouldn’t be messed around by a Chinese
capital suitor.
The key segments of the NR are these:
Anacortes has been engaged in meaningful discussions with a certain party
(the “Counterparty”) over the past five months regarding a possible transaction
that could provide several strategic benefits to Anacortes, including a logical fit of
quality assets, near-term production and cash flow generation, and a stronger financial
position to fund the development of Anacortes’ Tres Cruces Project.
In other words, Boroo made overtures to buy out Anacortes. It then continues:
A non-binding letter of intent (the “LOI”) was executed with the Counterparty,
which included a commitment for Anacortes to deal exclusively with the Counterparty.
Given the compelling terms of the LOI, the Anacortes Board and Management agreed
16

to enter into exclusive negotiations for a limited period of time. Since signing the LOI,
both parties have conducted extensive technical, financial, legal, and tax due diligence,
and negotiated a definitive agreement.
Sounds like Boroo made a heads-up offer, contingent on everything being as XYZ said it would
be. Therefore, as XYZ was confident about what they had, its directors assumed a deal would
soon be forthcoming. The NR continues:
In an effort to conserve cash while discussions regarding this potential transaction
were advanced, the Company temporarily suspended drilling operations at Tres
Cruces.
A mistake. As a trusted voice on Peruvian mining commented to this desk on reading the NR,
they should not have gone into a meeting room with a Chinese miner without a Plan B.
Execution of the definitive agreement and closing of the transaction, as contemplated
in the LOI, is conditional upon the resulting issuer securing the necessary working
capital to advance its assets upon closing. The Counterparty continues to work
diligently with various capital providers to obtain a favourable financing commitment.
Translation: Boroo has told XYZ it still wants to buy them out, but has been making excuses.
Anacortes remains interested in the proposed transaction with the Counterparty and
discussions between the parties are ongoing. However, given the length of
engagement with the Counterparty, the Company has decided to let the exclusivity
period lapse in order to investigate other alternatives that also have the potential to
provide Anacortes shareholders with meaningful value-generating opportunities.
XYZ has come clean about its strategic error. In trading, the
stock first traded up on the news and then traded lower as
the market worked out that the NR wasn’t a strategy to force
Boroo’s hand, more an admission of bad strategy. As XYZ is
now left with the choice of either re-starting its drilling or
waiting (for Godot?) for the elusive offer to arrive, unless the
next NR announces the buyout they will continue to look
weak. I will continue to watch and risk missing the M&A
action.
The Copper Basket
After forty-eight weeks of 2022, The Copper Basket shows a loss of 45.49% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/22 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Copper Mtn CMMC.to 3.42 210.166 405.62 1.93 -43.6%
2 Western Copper WRN.to 2.00 151.597 348.67 2.30 15.0%
3 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.77 88.118 277.57 3.15 -16.4%
4 Oroco Res OCO.v 2.04 207.033 207.03 1.00 -51.0%
5 Nevada Copper NCU.to 0.71 658.638 204.18 0.31 -56.3%
6 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.84 138.579 101.16 0.73 -13.1%
7 Hot Chili HCH.v 1.53 109.223 92.84 0.85 -44.4%
8 Regulus Res. REG.v 1.06 101.85 69.26 0.68 -35.8%
9 Meridian Min MNO.to 1.18 153.735 57.65 0.375 -68.2%
10 C3 Metals CCCM.v 0.16 645.379 45.18 0.07 -56.3%
11 Doré Copper DCMC.v 0.79 84.1 30.28 0.36 -54.4%
12 Kutcho Copper KC.v 0.88 103.94 25.47 0.245 -72.2%
13 QC Copper QCCU.v 0.34 129.06 20.65 0.16 -52.9%
14 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.58 79.24 15.06 0.19 -67.2%
15 Coast Copper COCO.v 0.13 41.335 1.86 0.045 -65.4%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg -45.49%
17

The Copper Basket had an overall positive week and improved by 2.1%, but a glance at the red
ink on the table above shows a host of 50% losers
this year and plenty of those are what I’d call 10% The Copper Basket 2022, weekly evolution
“broken stocks”, so it’s going to take a lot more to 0%
drag the basket average away from its current -10%
level. As for the week just gone, we saw seven
-20%
winners (CMMC.to, MARI.to, NCU.to, WRN.to,
-30%
HCH.v, CCCM.v, KC.v), three unchanged stocks
-40%
(DCMC.v, QCCU.v, COCO.v) and five losers
-50%
(OCO.v, MNO.to, REG.v, ALDE.v, ECU.v). So the
-60%
headcount was slightly in our favour but the good
news is that there were plenty of big percentage
winners and the list goes Copper Mountain
(CMMC.to up 20.6%), Nevada Copper (NCU.to up 17.0%), Kutcho Copper (KC.v up 16.7%),
Hot Chili (HCH.v up 10.4%), and Western Copper (WRN.to up 9.0%).
So a good week and some strong moves from some of the more liquid and better traded
companies, but it could have been better when you consider the action in copper-the-metal:
This time last weekend we took succour from the way copper managed to hold onto the
U$3.60/lb price line and weighed up the positives and negative market factors of its week to
come, including the Jay Powell speech to the Brooking’s Institute on Wednesday, the US BLS
Jobs report Friday and any continued macro news out of China. The analyst is allowed to doubt,
hum and hah but copper was having nothing of it, making bullish moves on anything slightly
positive and then ignoring the ostensible negative of the “hot jobs numbers. Once Jay Powell
had signalled his “0.5% At Most” to his lunchtime audience (see today’s intro) the run picked up
pace and we saw copper trade above U$3.80/lb for only the second time since June. Here’s
Reuters (10) with more:
“The weaker dollar has helped, but there are also signs that China may have to revise
its zero-COVID policy and that is also good for the metals markets,” said Nitesh Shah,
commodity strategist at WisdomTree.
Top metals consumer China continued to relax COVID-19 testing requirements and
quarantine rules in some Chinese cities on Friday.
However, that link also previews the US Jobs data and the same analyst gave us the orthodox
take on what might happen:
“A stronger payroll number is likely to cause dollar appreciation, which would be
negative for metals,” Shah said.
When the NFP reading was +263k compared to the +200k forecast, most things initially sold off
and the USD did indeed rally, so it was a real eye-opener to see the early action reverse as
Friday wore on. In the case of copper, the metal closed at near-highs as buyers moved to
secure supply in this pre-Christmas re-stocking period. The supposed Chinese supply weakness
18
ts1naJ ht9naJ ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6bef ht31 ht02 ht72 ht6raM ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3rpA ht01 ht71 ht42 s1yam ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5nuj ht21 ht91 ht62 dr3yluj ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7gua ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4pes ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2tco ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6von ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4ced
source: IKN calcs

isn’t showing much, even as its macro figures failed to impress last week. China’s PMI
manufacturing reading for the month of November came in at 48, down from the 49.2 of
October (with any sub-50 reading implying recession). Equally China’s PMI service sector
reading was 46.7, down two points from the 48.7 of October.
Which begs the question as to why copper managed to rally in a week with headwinds from
China and once again, this desk points its readership to the fundamentals of supply and
demand for the metal. It’s the same old boring story, the narrative doesn’t change because the
long-term story remains as bullish as it was weeks and months ago. As it’s the end of another
month, we first dial up the long-term charts:
Key Cu inventory aggregate, 2012 to date
1000000
900000
800000
700000
600000
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
19
21.naJ ram yam luj pes von 31.naJ ram yam luj pes von 41.naj ram yam luj pes von 51.naj ram yam luj pes von 61.naj ram yam luj pes von 71.naj ram yam luj pes von 81
naj
ram yam luj pes von 91
naj
ram yam luj pes von 02
naj
ram yam luj pes von 12
naj
ram yam luj pes von 22
naj
ram yam luj pes von
Mt Cu
Comex
Shanghai
LME
source: Cochilco
The first above shows the continued tight supply in the world’s three official systems compared
to virtually any moment in the last ten years, aside late 2021. As for the percentage make-up…
Copper inventories: percentage held per exchange
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
21.naJ ram yam luj pes von 31.naJ ram yam luj pes von 41.naj ram yam luj pes von 51.naj ram yam luj pes von 61.naj ram yam luj pes von 71.naj ram yam luj pes von 81
naj
ram yam luj pes von 91
naj
ram yam luj pes von 02
naj
ram yam luj pes von 12
naj
ram yam luj pes von 22
naj
ram yam luj pes von
LME Shanghai Comex source: Cochilco
…the dominance of the LME stocks is beginning to wane in the way it often does, even though
the other systems don’t have much stock either. That’s tells us the LME is beginning to scrape
the bottom of its own barrel and as that’s where price discovery happens on the world stage,
that happens.
With the monthly data covered, we move to our regular weekly update for copper stocks with
data as always from Cochilco (11):
 Another modest drop in overall world copper stocks last week, with the total of the
three official systems down 9,452 metric tonnes (mt) to close at 186,103mt.
 The drawdowns were across the board and led by the 5,023mt drop in SHFE stocks,
this weekend’s total at 65,226mt.
 The LME also saw a net loss in tonnages, down 3,750mt to close at 87,450mt which
pulls stocks to the lows we last saw at the
turn of last year. We also saw cancelled LME: Cu tonnage under cancelled warrant
warrants take a small leg up, the first in
six weeks and this weekend totalling
19,825mt.
 The Comex inventory dropped by 679mt of copper, closing at 33,427mt. No biggie.
00142
52074 57334 00714 52045 05205
52027 52418
52926 05694
57332
52271 05761 52511 57471
52581 52862 00642
00743 57924 00914 52975 05174 05803 04441 0588 0018 5786 00864 05386
57077
05064 05883 05891 52531
52891
100000
90000
80000
70000
60000
50000
40000 30000 20000
10000
0
dr3rpa ht01 ht71 ht42 1.yam ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5nuj ht21 ht91 ht62 dr3yluj ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7gua ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4pes ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2tco ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6von ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4ced
mt Cu
source: Cochilco

Chinese dissent towards its government’s Covid-19 policies may have grown over the last week,
but its copper situation remains largely the same. The dedicated SHFE charts still show levels
that are low compared to normal years, but without the barrel-scraping of this time last year.
Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2014 to date
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
20
31'13ceD dr32 ht02 ht51 ht01 ht5tco ht03 ht52 dn22 ht71 ht21 ht6pes ts1von 102ht72ced ts12 ht71 ht21 ht7guA dn2tcO ht4ceD ht92 ht62 ts12 ht61 ht01 ht5von ts13 ht52 dn22 ht42 ht91 ht41 ht9 9102
dr3bef
ts13 ht62 ts12 ht51 ht01 0202ht5naj 0202ts1ram ht62 ts12 ht61 ht11 0202ht6ced ts13 ht82 dr32 ht81 ht21 ht7 2202dn2naj ht72 ht42 ht91 ht41 ht9 ht4ced
Mt Cu
|
source: Cochilco
SHFE copper inventory levels, 2018 to 2022
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
MT Cu 2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
source: Cochilco data
Now a few notes on basket component stocks:
Copper Mountain (CMMC.to): There was a piece of largely rote news from CMMC Monday
(12), announcing that they’d received the required bondholder agreement for the sale of the
Eva Copper project in Australia (as well as a
buyback announcement on the bonds), but
that wasn’t the reason its stock flew last week
(right).
That was a market thing, as CMMC finally
found a big enough buyer to scoop up
everything Zeta was willing to offer that day
and more besides, which broke the price higher
and the moment in the copper price kept it
moving up. So a fine week for this stock and
it’s now up 10% from the weekend of IKN704
and our last serious look at the company, in
the ‘Market Watching’ note “Copper Mountain
(CMMC.to): Onto the discard pile” that looked
at its 3q22 financials. Shows you how much I know.
Regulus Resources (REG.v): One only has to draw in some basic trend lines on a basic five-
year price chart of Regulus Resources (REG.v) to make a basic point:

Long-term watchers of this stock know some basic facts, too:
 It goes for long periods of poor volume and scant interest from the retail market
 It has visited this current 70c/80c price level on numerous occasions and it’s as firm a
floor price as they come.
 From time to time, REG will see a volume spurt when it comes up on the market radar,
however brief the interest may be.
 When it does, it has a tendency to revalue quickly and violently.
The current chart looks like a set-up for the patient TA traders among this audience. If you but
that chart you’ll need to sit on your hands if REG continues to do what it’s done for the past
couple of weeks. i.e. remain stubbornly sold-off on low volume trading while other copper
explorecos move up. But assuming you have the fortitude to do so, at some point in 2023 it’s a
high probability bet to do what it tends to do and spike higher. When it does, you’ll also need
the intestinal fortitude to take your profit and not listen to the market rah-rah that will talk the
company a lot higher, but assuming you can follow the stock market’s most basic rule…
 Buy low
 Sell high
…there’s a profit to be made from snapping up REG shares at these prices. Personally I will not
partake, as I have better things to do in my life than sponsor anything connected to Fernando
Pickmann. But that’s just me and my moral handbook, the IKN Weekly exists to highlight
potential trades, this is the market and money has no smell.
Element 29 (ECU.v): As things turned out, the ECU team visiting Peru spent more time
looking at a potential project and we had to raincheck on our slated meeting. However by then
the bad news for current holders was already in the public sphere, as the company announced
(13) equity placement financing. Here’s the meat of the NR:
“…the Company intends to complete a non-brokered private placement of up to
6,250,000 Units (the "Units") at a price of $0.20 per Unit for aggregate gross proceeds
of up to $1,250,000 (the "Offering"). Each Unit comprises one common share of
Element 29 and one-half non-transferable common share purchase warrant (each
whole warrant, a "Warrant"). Each whole Warrant will be exercisable for a common
share at an exercise price of $0.30 and will expire 2
years from the closing date of the Offering.”
That was enough to sink the stock and on considering
the timing, ECU was potentially unlucky as the copper
sub-sector went on to rally without it later in the week.
However, nobody put a gun to the head of the
company and forced them to raise at 20c. Glad I bailed
on this company when I did and regret not seeing the
light earlier. One of the more promising stories of 2022
has turned into a real disappointment and this late-year
21

discounted raise is the cherry on the cake.
The Producer Basket
After 48 weeks of 2022, the Producer Basket shows a loss of 5.17% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/22 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 62.02 797.44 38.81 48.67 -21.5%
2 Barrick GOLD 19.00 1779 30.21 16.98 -10.6%
3 Franco-Nevada FNV 138.29 191.66 27.89 145.54 5.2%
4 Agnico Eagle AEM 53.14 454.904 23.55 51.77 -2.6%
5 Wheaton PM WPM 42.93 450.3 17.85 39.65 -7.6%
6 Gold Fields GFI 10.99 887.72 9.92 11.18 1.7%
7 Kinross Gold KGC 5.81 1296.5 5.63 4.34 -25.3%
8 Alamos Gold AGI 7.69 392.503 3.94 10.03 30.4%
9 B2Gold BTG 3.93 1055.6 3.77 3.57 -9.2%
10 Sandstorm SAND 6.20 223.79 1.22 5.44 -12.3%
All prices and stock quotes in U$ Port. avg -5.17%
Another good week for the larger producers but it wasn’t a sparkling one either. True that all
ten of our Producer Stocks returned gains and we also beat the GDX benchmark by 0.7% or so,
but the only out-sized gains came from the biggest of the big caps and overall, the juniors did
far better than the Tier 2 companies and royaltycos populating our choices this year. Best of the
bunch were Newmont (NEM up 6.2%) and Barrick (GOLD up 6.0%) and that gets a comment
below, while the two worst of the week were Franco-Nevada (FNV up 0.8% and is allowed a
soft week after out-performing all year) and B2Gold (BTG up 1.7% and isn’t, as it falls further
behind Alamos Gold (AGI) in the market cap league table. AGI was worth a full billion less than
BTG at the start of 2022 and since then McCluskey has whupped Johnson’s rear end, in no
uncertain terms.
The 2022 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
35% comparative to GDX control
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%
-30%
Newmont (NEM) and Barrick (GOLD): We got a positive signal from NEM and GOLD this
week. When the two biggest publicly traded gold mining companies in the world and the largest
components of the GDX ETF handily outperform
GDX, it means big money is positioning in the
gold sector. The largest funds do not mess
about, as when their algos say “buy gold” they
move to stocks with the width to handle their
order sizes and GDX apart, there’s only GOLD
and NEM that fit the bill (FNV doesn’t count, it’s
not a miner). This action, particularly the spike
higher at the bell Thursday and the way in which
GOLD (and NEM) found immediate buyers at the
markdown Friday morning, don’t speak of a
22
ts1naJ ht9naJ ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6bef ht31 ht02 ht72 ht6ram ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3rpa ht01 ht71 ht42 s1yam ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5nuj ht21 ht91 ht62 dr3luj ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7 ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4pes ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2tco ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6von ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4ced
The 2022 Producer Basket: Percentage difference
5.0% between GDX benchmark & basket (negative = IKN ahead)
ikn 4.0%
gdx control 3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
source: NYSE, IKN Calcs -4.0%
ts1naJ ht9naJ ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6bef ht31 ht02 ht72 ht6ram ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3rpa ht01 ht71 ht42 s1yam ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5nuj ht21 ht91 ht62 dr3luj ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7 ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4pes ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2tco ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6von ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4ced
source: IKN calcs, NYSE data

newly bullish backdrop for our sector, they shout it loud. Another reason I’m extended exposure
in the days to come via Abrasilver (ABRA.v).
The TinyCaps List
After forty-eight weeks of 2022, the TinyCaps show a loss of 36.30% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/22 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Aurelius Min AUL.v 0.24 45.836 3.67 0.08 -66.7%
Golden Pursuit GDP.v 0.13 34.638 6.23 0.18 38.5%
Infield Min INFD.v 0.06 48.445 1.70 0.035 -41.7%
Kingfisher Met KFR.v 0.30 103.06 9.79 0.095 -68.3%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.12 57.686 7.79 0.135 12.5%
Manitou Gold MTU.v 0.06 344.57 6.89 0.02 -66.7%
Melkior Res MKR.v 0.295 24.011 5.52 0.23 -22.0%
Precipitate Gold PRG.v 0.105 129.322 9.70 0.075 -28.6%
Signature Res SGU.v 0.07 238.4 3.58 0.015 -78.6%
Winshear Gold WINS.v 0.08 72.44 3.62 0.05 -37.5%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg -36.30%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $20m. They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a
little and allowed sub-U$20m market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, but it was a particularly depressing exercise to trawl through the whole of the TSXV and find companies
that are small enough, but with life in them. The vast majority of sub-$20m stocks are broken stocks, either
traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2022. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
Unlike the other baskets, last week in the 15% TinyCaps, 2022 weekly tracker
tinycaps saw more selling than buying and just 10%
5%
two of our representative ten companies 0%
-5%
returned gains (AUL.v, LMS.v). four others were
-10%
unchanged (GDP.v, INFD.v, SGU.v, WINS.v) and -15%
-20%
the other four were losers (KFR.v, MTU.v, MKR.v,
-25%
PRG.v). Of those, the biggest drop in percentage -30%
-35%
terms was suffered by Manitou (MTU.v down
-40%
33.3%), but that’s really just half a cent. -45%
-50%
Kingfisher Metals (KFR.v): The beatings will
continue until morale improves. This chart is
what Tax Loss Selling looks like and there may well be more where it came from.
23
dn2naJ naJ t61naJ dr32 ht03 ht6bef ht31 ht02 ht72 ht6ram ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3rpa ht01 ht71 ht42 s1yam ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5nuj ht21 ht91 ht62 dr3yluj ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7gua ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4pes ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2tco ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6von ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4ced
source: IKN calcs, TSX data

Winshear Gold (WINS.v): One of many to report its 3q22 numbers, WINS balance sheet as
at September 30th looks like this:
With C$450k in working capital and no long-term asset book, any holder of WINS is paying $3m
for the brains trust, the concessions held and the opportunity WINS has of benefiting from its
ongoing legal suit against Tanzania, currently being arbitrated by ICSID.
Manitou Gold (MTU.v): If there were one 2c stock I’d be willing to risk a few hundred dollars
on today, it’s this one.
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future
I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
Colombia: Petro on the upcoming changes to the mining law
Yesterday Saturday December 3rd, President Gustavo Petro addressed the “24º Encuentro del
Occidente Antioqueño”, the 24th annual meeting of governors, town mayors, social leaders and
business owners in the Antioquia region of Colombia. His address covered several subjects and
main themes included indigenous rights, the improvement of life quality in rural zones and of
fresh water supply, but along with those he added new news about his government’s plans to
reform the country’s mining laws. You can watch his speech here (14) or read sample reports of
many here (15) and here (16), we cut to the chase with a translation of his key comments on
mining:
“(Change is needed because) all the national territory has been entitled for mining
exploration, including in its water sources”
“We must reform (the laws), they are no good to us…The State can no longer prioritize
the large scale multinational mining companies, The State must prioritize small-scale
traditional mining, the small and traditional miner, and on top of that support the efforts
that mining undoubtedly requires, because this isn’t some great war against mining,
instead it is against the way that mining is done in Colombia.”
When he spoke this Saturday, one of the issues on his mind may have been the protests
against Aris Mining (ARIS.to) last week in the Marmato region of Colombia around that
company’s working gold mines. Small-scale miners who are either contracted to sell their ore to
Aris or work in small mines that are being affected by Aris’s mine development plans set up
roadblocks and stopped traffic on main roads (photos here (17) and demanded that the
government intervene to stop the “inhumane treatment” of small scale miners at the hands of
Aris in the zone. Relations between Marmato/Segovia small-scale miners and the large Aris
(previously Gran Colombia) are complicated and have been difficult for many years and there’s
no easy solution on the table under the present situation, which makes Petro’s comments that
much more topical this weekend.
One of these days, people will realize why I’ve identified ARIS.to as such an obvious short
candidate. Until then, it will be supported by its list of A-Team Rockstar insiders.
Chile: Mining shows the country the way out of its recession
Just two weeks ago in IKN705 and the note “Chile: the GDP issue”, we reported on the sharp
24

slowdown in Chile’s economic numbers. That week its Central Bank’s reported its 3q22
preliminary GDP and was greeted by the Reuters headline (18) “Chile's GDP posts largest
quarterly drop in over 2 years as recession fears grow”, along with local expert opinion such as
this:
"The economy is shrinking, and the near-term outlook remains negative," Pantheon
Macroeconomics' economist Andres Abadia said, mentioning tighter fiscal and
monetary policy, elevated political uncertainty, weakening external conditions, high
inflation and problems in key industries.
The contraction "was even steeper than expected and we think that the downturn has
further to run," Capital Economics' Kimberley Sperrfechter said, forecasting Chile's
economy to contract by 1.3% over 2023 as a whole.
In IKN705 we also included this
Chile: GDP growth, per quarter
composite GDP chart (right) that 24% (seasonally adjusted, compared to the same quarter of previous year)
shows how the overall quarterly GDP 20%
has been dragged down by the 16%
separate (but important) Mining GDP 12%
8%
number over the last 12 months.
4%
Considering how the first six months 0%
of the Gabriel Boric government has -4%
-8%
demonstrated particular negativity
-12%
toward the country’s mining sector,
-16%
we opined at the time how some -20%
cruel economic reality was now
threatening to derail his government
and how Boric was “going to come
under pressure for the antipathy
shown by his government toward the mining industry during his first year in office.”
We cut to last week and the Central Bank’s IMACEC reading on economic activity for the month
of October (19). Strictly speaking, IMACEC (Índice Mensual de Actividad Económica) is a
separate reading to the official quarterly numbers and is designed to give a snapshot of how
the country is doing, but in real terms the IMACEC is
known to be fairly accurate and a fair reflection of how
the eventual quarterly GDP numbers will turn out.
Here are the two stats that matter:
 Overall IMACEC: Negative 1.2%
 Mining IMACEC: Positive 1.7%
In other words, Chile is now slipping into clear
recession and without mining, things would be a lot
worse and in fact, the Central Bank also reported that
without mining Chile’s economy dropped by 1.8%
compared to the same month of 2022. The big losers
were commerce and industrial manufacturing and
without mining to prop up the economy, the pain felt
on the streets as inflation starts to bite in the general
public’s back pocket would have been a lot worse.
Mexico: Mixed signals from SEMARNAT
A story that got plenty of traction among Mexico business wires this week was a comment
made by the head of Mexico’s environmental agency SEMARNAT, María Luisa Albores, at a
press conference that was called on a separate and currently controversial subject, that of the
environmental permitting of the “Tren Maya”, a rail route planned for the South of the country
(20). Aside from the main subject, Ms. Albores was asked about mining and said the following
(translated, the exact message is important, too):
25
31q1 31q2 31q3 31q4 41q1 41q2 41q3 41q4 51q1 51q2 51q3 51q4 61q1 61q2 61q3 61q4 71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3
Natl GDP
Mining GDP
source: Chile Central Bank

“The government of the Fourth Transformation (i.e. the AMLO government) will not
award any more authorizations for open pit mining, due to its negative impacts in the
environment and on human health.”
It was almost a side comment during a presser on a different subject but was pounced upon by
the press for its potential scope and effect. In reality, two things are happening here:
 Ms Albores is merely repeating the same policy line used by AMLO himself, one that has
made zero difference to the permitting and operation of open pit mines in the country
in year (or so) since AMLO began the messaging.
 Her words “will not award any more authorizations” are either deliberately or
accidentally vague, but coming from the head of an Enviro agency may seem as though
they pertain to EIA permits. In fact, the “authorizations” targeted by AMLO’s
government have been on new concessions (and even then other new projects have
been given green lights), so anyone who thinks projects such as Minera Alamos Cerro
de Oro will hit permitting problems due to a government volte face is simply incorrect,
as for one thing nothing has changed and for another, this is about concession awards
and not permits for projects (which the very same SEMARNAT has been giving out with
no change in policy).
This type of story has become somewhat typical in Mexico in the AMLO years, due to a
government that talks a populist talk but when the rubber hits the road, nothing much has
changed in the country business-wise. So if you see this story appear in the English language
this week, do not be concerned. In fact, you may even consider it buying opportunity.
Peru: The number 87
Check out Wikipedia and you’ll learn that 87 (eighty-seven) is the atomic number of francium,
it’s the answer to the puzzle* “16, 06, 68, 88, xx, 98” and that in 1987, David Bowie’s album
“Never Let Me Down” includes the song “87 and Cry”. It’s also the number dominating Peruvian
politics at the moment because, try as they might (and they’re now doing so for the third
official time), Peru’s Congress cannot table a motion to impeach, suspend or generally throw
out President Pedro Castillo that gets to the required 2/3rd majority of its 130 seats, i.e. 87
votes, in order for the motion to prosper.
This is the central fact around which all current controversy and scandal in the country
revolves. It’s something that much of the press coverage of the ongoing and increasingly bitter
battle between the unpopular Castillo government and the equally unpopular Congress fails to
mention in both national and international coverage and it’s why Castillo has managed to hold
on to power through 2022, that final fact to my own surprise (see early year editions when this
desk wrote that his fall was nigh). As noted in last week’s edition, a lot of this subject involves
deep Peruvian politics and even though I received enough mails from subscribers to warrant
this update, I’m still loathe to go too far into this particular murky pool, this is a mining
newsletter after all. However, more has been demanded so today we’ll lay out the main factors
behind the current mess.
1) Castillo’s undoubted ineptitude: He’s not a good President by any measure. Whether from
the political left or right, it’s certainly useful that your Head of State be highly educated (e.g .
Petro in Colombia, Lasso in Ecuador) but more important is basic smarts and intelligence. For
just one example, Evo Morales left the schooling system very early in life to tend his family’s
coca leaf farm (all legal in Bolivia) but his lack of qualifications have never stopped his whip-
smart brain from working and his star from rising in his country’s political scene.
Castillo is neither educated nor smart (even his university degree is clearly plagiarized). He’s a
Joe Ordinary and when he started as President, was painfully naïve not only about his job, but
about the way people around him would use and abuse their new positions of power. He’s not a
great speaker, and was never Presidential material in the first place; on these pages we’ve
already documented the bizarre way a rather humble and unassuming regional union rep made
it to the top job. He was given his party ticket as all its leaders had corruption charges against
26

their names, he got the most votes in round one of the 2020 elections on a protest, “none of
the above” reaction from the provincial populace fed up with the samo samo corrupt Peru
political scene and then, in the third twist of chance, he found himself up against the only run-
off candidate he could have possibly beaten, the uber-hated Keiko Fujimori had sneaked the
second spot.
However, being inept or a Joe Ordinary is no barrier to becoming President! It’s not as if Peru
has been blessed with political glitterati recently and every one of the recent Presidents has hit
trouble, no matter whether dumb, corrupt or enabling corruption around them. But with Castillo
there’s an extra ingredient that makes things the way they are, which brings our second point.
2) Lima’s ruling class and its outright hatred of Castillo. One cannot ignore one of the root
causes of the vitriol levelled against Peru’s current President, as it doesn’t take more than a
light scratch at the surface of the opposition to Castillo to discover plain and obvious racism. I
realize we’re in a post-pandemic, post-truth, post-modern society in which rules definitions and
norms are constantly questioned and lines blurred between emotive subjects, I’m also aware
that not all of Castillo’s detractors take their position due to his background, skin colour etc
(and those who do have plenty to fall back on if ever accused). So with that clear, be in no
doubt that one of the main reasons for the ongoing onslaught against Castillo is that the lima
ruling class cannot abide the thought of being governed and represented by a small brown man
from the provinces and his Left wing politics only makes things worse.
Congress is run by the Lima ruling class and its leaders are either from the ranks or paid by
them to lobby their position, so it’s unsurprising to see this amount of conflict between an inept
President that nobody really likes and a Congress who wants to take control back from the
small brown people before they get any big ideas. However, Congress has its own clear
weakness, which is point three.
3) Peruvians hate their Congress even more than their President. Even in Lima, the body of 130
people known as “Congress” is hated, in the provinces it’s even worse and the word is the
epitome of corrupt society. Congress and its members gets lower approval ratings than even
Castillo (who still has a hard core of perhaps 20% of Peruvians, mostly in or from the High
Andean zones) and is nobody’s idea of a replacement executive power, as they’d only replace
one set of corrupt politicos with another. To this point, Congress has the theoretical power to
dissolve itself and call new elections, a move that would certainly bring down the Castillo
government and force national Presidential and Congressional elections (that would finally bring
some sanity) but members of Congress are too worried about losing their cushy and highly paid
jobs (with mountains of “side benefits”) to do anything that approaches self-sacrifice. Instead,
Congres is hell bent on removing Castillo in any way possible without shutting down trheir own
gig, which means a string of impeachment and/or “motions of suspension” based on the flimsy
pretexts such as “moral incapacity” or “treason against the fatherland”, which are nigh on
impossible to make stick effectively these days due to point four.
4) Castillo’s improved team, in particular his legal and “Peru Politics” advisors. One year ago
Castillo was still green as grass and trying to run the country in the only way he knew, i.e. the
“friends’ team” government typical in provincial Peru. He’s got wiser since then and while still
painful to witness when trying to be Presidential, has now got a better team of advisors who
now protect him more effectively against the classic attacks and black art politics being used by
Congress and its members. As alluded to last week, he’s become Lima Street Smart in 2022 and
these days, knows for example that the only way to combat the dirty tricks campaign is by
using the same tactics against his adversaries. Or that only way to avoid being tied up in legal
knots is to use the same rope of legal maneuvers against his enemies. That the way Congress
uses delays and obfuscations is a useful tool for the executive as well. Etc. He’0s also learned to
“take the high road” in public debates and offer to talk and meet with opposition members
(who wouldn’t want to be in the same room with him) in the name of democracy, and repeating
the line that he was elected democratically and plans to see out his five year mandate as
decided by the people. In so many words, he has entrenched himself and along with a smarter
27

team, has managed to find enough traction with enough of the main players and movers to
avoid “87”.
The current situation is an impasse, as Congress gets enough votes to pass proposals to
remove Castillo by this-or-that means, plus there’s a constant barrage of anti-Castillo stories in
the right wing controlled media that try hard to connect him to reports of corrupt activities.
Some indeed have legs, but none so far have shown the smoking gun level of involvement to
turn the debate against the President and as such, the 66 votes to get a motion to the floor of
Congress never turns into the 87 votes needed to pass the motion and cause his removal.
Which is where we are today, as Congress again mounts another attempt this month to remove
him on impeachment charges. This time, they are even trying to change the country’s own
rules to allow a destitution vote to pass with a simple majority (that will likely get stuck in the
Constitutional Court) and all the while, there are constant back stories and rumours about
Castillo about to shut down Congress (he has that power, at least in theory) or the imminent
coup d’etat from the military, again mostly pipe dreams from his ardent haters.
As for Peru the country, most people and most businesses aren’t too worried about the political
impasse and the lack of work being done by their representatives, as the country is used to
total ineptitude at its legislative level. In some ways, the entrenched Congress vs Executive
scenario suits them as it keeps them from reforms that would almost certainly stop them from
getting on with their own lives. So the bottom line is that as long as the country has Julio
Velarde in the Central Bank and its finances are run adequately, life will go on.
Market Watching
Aldebaran Resources (ALDE.v) financials
There was a raft of quarterly financials filed to SEDAR by junior explorecos large and small in
the first three days of the week, getting them in before the November 30th time limit and one of
th3 reporters was our speculative trade on Argentina copper, Aldebaran Resources (ALDE.v)
and while I continue to regret choosing this over anything Lundin, we will continue to track its
relatively simple financial structure as it moves into its 2022/2023 drilling campaign (that
started two weeks ago (21). We concentrate on the key numbers for any exploreco, the
balance sheet and its overview charts:
ALDE.v: Assets per qtr
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
These show that in essence, the company running the Altar project hasn’t changed a great deal
financially. Liabilities are back from the small blip that took them to $1.1m while the financing
was running and remain tiny. Meanwhile, assets show that the recent cash injection may have
been required but is still dwarfed by the real value at ALDE its fixed asset.
However, liquidity is vital at this stage and even though the 2021/2022 drill campaign fell short
of its planned meterage, the project burned away the cash and needed replenishing. That’s
now happened via derivative exercises and new share financing and as at September 20th (the
company’s 1st fiscal quarter) it had C$11.602m at bank. That’s enough to see it through all the
2022/2023 planned campaign and most of the next calendar year, as our treasury and working
28
81.ced 91.ram ey91.nuj 91.pes 91.ced 02.ram ey02.nuj 02.pes 02.ced 12.ram ey12.nuj 12.pes 12.ced 22.ram ey22.nuj 22.pes tse22.ced tse32.ram tse_ey32.nuj
C$m ALDE.v: Liabilities per qtr
fixed 1.1
other current 1.0
cash 0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
source: company filings
81.ced 91.ram ey91.nuj 91.pes 91.ced 02.ram ey02.nuj 02.pes 02.ced 12.ram ey12.nuj 12.pes 12.ced 22.ram ey22.nuj 22.pes tse22.ced tse32.ram tse_ey32.nuj
source: company filings, IKN ests
srallod
fo
snoillim
LT debt
current debt

cap charts forecast here.
14 ALDE.v: Cash Treasury per qtr
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Which is fine and with a more effective drill campaign planned and now underway, ALDE will
have the time and the cash to impress the market with suitable drill assays as 2023 rolls out.
With drilling beginning two weeks ago, we should
start getting the first assay results by January
(perhaps February) and as long as the company
and its drill contractors have learned from their
mistakes in the previous campaign, we should
get a steady stream of results in the first half of
2023. All this is enough for me to stay on board
for the time being, but as stated previously I’m
far from married to this trade and if it pops on
volume, there would be a temptation to sell and
take profits at some point (my slated number is
around C$1.20).
Mene 3q22 financials deferred
I was going to run a review of the 3q22 financials out of our only “non mining pick”, Mene Inc
(MENE.v) this weekend but due to time constraints I’m going to defer it until next weekend. I
don’t think there’s anything time sensitive to report about its numbers, but I don’t want to rush
and do a half job. Next weekend’s edition, with my apologies.
On last week’s call to pass on a second Goldshore Resources (GSHR.v) trade
Too cute for my own good, too cute by half.
So congrats to anyone who picked up a quick 15% win when they realized this stock would be
as responsive to the upside move as it was a few weeks ago in its first impulse.
29
81.ced 91.ram ey91.nuj 91.pes 91.ced 02.ram ey02.nuj 02.pes 02.ced 12.ram ey12.nuj 12.pes 12.ced 22.ram ey22.nuj 22.pes tse22.ced tse32.ram tse_ey32.nuj
source: company filings. IKN ests
srallod
fo
snoillim
ALDE.v: Working Capital per qtr
12
11
10 9
8
7
6
5 4
3
2
1
0
81.ced 91.ram ey91.nuj 91.pes 91.ced 02.ram ey02.nuj 02.pes 02.ced 12.ram ey12.nuj 12.pes 12.ced 22.ram ey22.nuj 22.pes tse22.ced tse32.ram tse_ey32.nuj
source company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
ALDE.v: Shares outstanding
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
91.ram ey91.nuj 91.pes 91.ced 02.ram ey02.nuj 02.pes 02.ced 12.ram ey12.nuj 12.pes 12.ced 22.ram ey22.nuj 22.pes tse22.ced tse32.ram tse_ey32.nuj
source: company filings, IKN ests

Conclusion
IKN707 is done, we end with bullet points:
 AbraSilver (ABRA.v) has impressed me all year, no matter what I might think of silver
as a basis for a trade in the mining sector or its price action during 2022. Now that
metals prices and moving in favour of we bulls, it’s time to go back to ABRA and buy a
piece of this high quality, under the radar silver exploreco with a big gold kicker in a
good location.
 It was a good looking market last week, it would be nice if this is a prelude to a serious
Santa Rally.
 Very happy with the way copper is trading, the Good Doctor says the whole complex is
going higher. Time to position for 2023 and Tax Loss Sellers be damned.
 Avoid Colombia exposure, please.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stock is Minera Alamos (MAI.v). Flash
updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best wishes, Mark
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/30/fed-chair-jerome-powell-says-smaller-rate-hikes-could-come-in-december.html
(2) https://abrasilver.com/news-releases/abrasilver-announces-new-mineral-resource-estimate-with-over-215moz-ageq-
at-diablillos
(3) https://abrasilver.com/news-releases/abrasilver-announces--8-million-bought-deal-private-placement-
(4) https://www.virtualinvestorconferences.com/events/event-details/metals-mining-virtual-investor-conference-7?
(5) https://6ix.com/conference-mix-12-2022/?utm_bmcr_source=newcoregold&utm_source=newcoregold
(6) https://iknnews.com/odd-things-that-happen-in-the-junior-miner-sector-from-time-to-time-western-copper-gold-wrn-
to-wrn-edition/
(7) https://www.rio2.com/post/rio2-provides-fenix-gold-and-corporate-update
(8) https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amerigo-announces-renewal-normal-course-123200787.html
(9) https://anacortesmining.com/2022/12/anacortes-provides-an-update-regarding-its-strategic-review-process/
(10) https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/copper-edges-up-on-softer-dollar-easing-china-covid-curbs/
(11)
https://www.cochilco.cl/Paginas/Estudios/Mercados%20de%20metales%20e%20insumos%20estrat%C3%A9gicos/Infor
mes-Semanales-2015.aspx
(12) https://cumtn.com/investors/press-releases/2022/copper-mountain-mining-receives-bondholder-approva-4838/
(13) https://www.e29copper.com/news/element-29-announces-private-placement-of-up-to-125-million
(14) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cz0ZcqKzJtI
(15) https://www.elnuevosiglo.com.co/articulos/12-03-2022-presidente-petro-anuncia-reforma-codigo-minero
(16) https://zonacero.com/generales/petro-tambien-propone-reformar-codigo-minero-para-reorientar-la-exploracion-
204540
30

(17) https://www.semana.com/nacion/manizales/articulo/por-paro-minero-esta-cerrada-la-via-manizales-
medellin/202232/
(18) https://www.reuters.com/markets/emerging/chiles-gdp-up-03-q3-year-on-year-above-estimates-2022-11-18/
(19) https://www.maray.cl/imacec-de-octubre-reflejo-buenos-resultados-para-la-mineria/
(20) https://www.infobae.com/america/mexico/2022/12/03/gobierno-de-amlo-ya-no-permitira-mineria-a-cielo-abierto-
aseguro-la-semarnat/
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Set-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
31

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
32

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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