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The IKN Weekly
Week 701, October 23rd 2022
Contents
This Week: Trade heads-up, In Today’s Edition, An abridged edition next weekend, The
hammer is the only tool.
Fundamental Analysis: Buying Newcore Gold (NCAU.v) and Goldshore Resources (GSHR.v)
for leverage on a gold sector rebound.
Stocks to Follow: Newcore Gold (NCAU.v), Goldshore Resources (GSHR.v), Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v),
Chesapeake Gold (CKG.v).
Copper Basket: Overview, Copper Mountain (CMMC.to), Doré Copper (DCMC.v), Coast Copper
(COCO.v), Marimaca Copper (MARI.to).
Producer Basket: Overview, Gold Fields (GFI), Yamana (AUY).
TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Latin Metals (LMS.v), Kingfisher Metals (KFR.v), Signature
Resources (SGU.v).
Regional Politics: Ecuador: An interview with Vice-Minister of Mining Andrés Wierdak,
Colombia: On honeymoons and exchange rates, Colombia: Decisions on mining coming soon,
Brazil: Polling with a week to go puts Lula ahead.
Market Watching: Wesdome Gold Mines (WDO.to) and its attempted soft landing.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
Trade heads-up
It’s been a long time since The IKN Weekly ran a top-of-the-shop paragraph to announce a new
purchase, as even the very small and story-specific foray into Pure Gold (PGM.v) recently didn’t
come with a trade heads-up announcement (it was too small to deserve one), but today is the
day your author finally sticks his head above the parapet. The planned purchases are going to
be small and the trade timeframe could be limited if there’s significant movement in the market
(either up or down), but both trades are predicated on the same reason; A good old-fashioned
bargain basement purchase. Therefore:
 I plan to take a small opening position in Newcore Gold (NCAU.v) this week.
 I plan to take a small opening position in Goldshore Resources (GSHR.v) this week.
More on these trades in today’s main fundies section.
In Today’s Edition
 Today’s main Fundies section is an announcement on the purchase of two new
positions, but unlike other plans to buy this is as much about getting the sector call
right as it is on the precise companies in question. Both Newcore (NCAU.v) and
Goldshore (GSHR.v) have reasonable stories to tell and most importantly, their share
prices have been beaten down in merciless fashion. They’re ready for a rebound and
should benefit accordingly in the event of a sector bounce, but they’re far from the only
junior explorecos in this position. Today’s decision to buy is predicated on there being
good reason to suppose we’re near the bottom for this sector, it’s also a first small step
rather than a massive all-in shove that exposes too much cash in one go.
1

 It’s not only the junior explorecos that have seen their share prices beaten down hard,
of course. In ‘Market Watching’ today we consider an old friend of these pages, as
Wesdome Gold (WDO.to) has also had a tough 2022 due to external factors, with its
own internal issues not helping the cause. The result is a stock price down 50% over
the last six months and with the company now likely over the worst of its own issues,
it’s setting up for a better 2023…as long as the gold price plays ball.
 Today Regional Politics has two main features, as we witness Ecuador and Colombia
fighting to decide which will scare away the most mining FDI in the next 12 months. In
Ecuador, an interview given last week by Ecuador’s Vice-Minister of Mining is the
window on what’s going wrong. Meanwhile in Colombia, President Petro’s honeymoon
period is (just about) over and the political and economic fun and games are beginning,
with mining in the firing line as one of the contentious points of his government.
 Along with the usual Copper Basket features, we take time out to consider what
Freeport CEO Richard Adkerson had to say on the copper market as part of his
company’s 3q22 earnings day last Thursday. His viewpoint underscores our view of a
clash between the bearish influences on copper of the financial world and the bullish of
end-user demand. Dr. Copper continues to signal stagflation and Adkerson’s take on
the longer-term outlook for the metal is, for my money, spot on.
An abridged edition next weekend
Due to personal commitments, next weekend’s edition of The IKN Weekly, IKN702 to be dated
October 30th, is likely to be an abridged edition and not as extensive as this or recent editions.
It won’t be as brief as one of the “bare bones” edition as seen around Christmas holiday period
and there will be the normal coverage of our tracked stocks and comments on the focus
markets, plus of course thoughts on the (likely preliminary) results from the big Brazil election,
but the main fundies feature and/or additional comments on specific stocks and market
activities may not make it into the edition. I thank you in advance for your comprehension, rest
assured that full coverage will resume in IKN703 onward.
The hammer is the only tool
“I call it the law of the instrument, and it may be formulated
as follows: Give a small boy a hammer, and he will find
that everything he encounters needs pounding.”
Abraham Kaplan, The Conduct of Inquiry:
Methodology for Behavioral Science, 1964
All talk of The US Federal Reserve’s “extensive toolbox” at hand to manage its country’s
economy and steer through the current problems is just that, mere talk. Jerome Powell is, in
effect, a small boy with a hammer. Last week brought a prime example of the importance of
the macro backdrop on the current market when an ostensibly straightforward WSJ report on
Friday morning did this to the price of the US Dollar:
That drop triggered a rally in stocks, bonds, commodities and most anything else priced in USD.
2

One of the most notable effects happened in the Treasurys market, which screeched to a halt
as traders wondered whether any trade would be whiplashed by the so-called Fed Pivot.
Meanwhile, the heavily inversed yield curve took a leap toward neutrality and while there’s still
work to get 10Yr-2Yr back to zero, the 0.28% close Friday (1) is the best number since
September and stepping in the right direction (be clear, I’ll be watching the yield curve closely
in the five days ahead of us). All in all,
plenty of effect from a simple news report,
which means it’s worth taking a closer look
at exactly what was written. Here’s the link
(2) and here’s how it began:
Federal Reserve officials are barrelling
toward another interest-rate rise of 0.75
percentage point at their meeting on
Nov. 1-2 and are likely to debate then
whether and how to signal plans to
approve a smaller increase in
December.
“We will have a very thoughtful discussion about the pace of tightening at our next
meeting,” Fed governor Christopher Waller said in a speech earlier this month.
Some officials have begun signalling their desire both to slow down the pace of
increases soon and to stop raising rates early next year, to see how their moves this
year are slowing the economy. They want to reduce the risk of causing an
unnecessarily sharp slowdown. Others have said it is too soon for those discussions
because high inflation is proving to be more persistent and broad. The Fed has raised
its benchmark Federal Funds rate by 0.75 point in each of its past three meetings,
most recently in September, bringing the rate to a range between 3% and 3.25%.
Officials are raising rates at the most aggressive pace since the early 1980’s
(continues)
Though certainly outside of the usual remit of these pages, a word on the so-called “Fed
Whisperer” journalist behind that note is required as Nick Timiraos is now firmly part of the
Fed’s jawbone apparatus. Noted for over a year as having his finger so exactly on the pulse of
the Federal Reserve that it’s widely assumed he’s getting tip-offs, his notes on the Fed are
widely read and while the 0.75% prediction is nothing new, the emphasis placed on the way
the Fed is looking to slow down the pace of hikes as from December was the signal the market
needed to rally. If that happens it would be a necessary first ingredient of the yearned-after
pivot and the signal that the Fed was either less concerned about inflation or less worried about
reeling it in so quickly. As I digested the ensuing market rally on Friday morning, thoughts
returned to the basic building blocks of the current narrative as the effect of the WSJ note
showed, above all, that Jerome Powell and his Federal Reserve were now clearly in front of the
curve, controlling the narrative and the market was ready to react to whatever it decided next.
Here are those most basic of building blocks:
 There is too much inflation (and let us recall, inflation is not the rise in the cost of a thing.
Rather, it is the drop of the value of the currency required to buy the thing).
 The Federal Reserve wants to tame inflation. Dual mandate be damned, Jay Powell’s days
are filled with thoughts on what they can do to stop prices from running any further.
 The root problem is a supply/demand imbalance. This is now understood by the market,
there’s no revelations in today’s re-cap. We know that the Whatever It Takes to get the
world economy through the Covid crisis is now a Whatever It Takes to swipe the punchbowl
away from the party, or “mop up liquidity” if you prefer to be more clinical. The combination
of supply issues to the world’s major markets and the excess of cash in the hands of
corporations and consumers cause greater competition of goods and services of all types.
 The Fed’s monetary policies cannot easily affect supply, instead they affect demand. We also
know this, as the Fed’s so-called “toolbox” is a monetary one, not one that can suddenly
improve logistics at the Port of Los Angeles and get double the amount of containers onto
trucks. Therefore, instead of attempting to increase supply of things in order to tame
3

inflation, the Fed is fixed on doing what it can to crimp demand in order to tame inflation.
 Therefore, when the Fed says that it wants to “cool the economy”, it is in effect deliberately
trying to make people poorer. By raising rates, The Fed’s turns the screw and theoretically at
least, keeps turning it until people feel poorer. That might happen due to higher mortgage
payments, higher monthly payments for vehicle financing loans, or simply the need to pay
8.1% more for “things” at the supermarket, mall or online retailer than this time last year.
 So far at least, the Fed’s efforts have not shown in The USA’s macro data. The jobs market
continues to be strong, inflation levels haven’t dropped, etc. But at some point, the Fed gets
its way and when it does, the places that sell things to The USA will make less money. At
that point and when faced with a drop in demand, the agile and flexible private economy
players of capitalism, unfettered by government rules or party political concerns, do what
they always do. Lower demand begets lower supply, which means jobs layoffs, furloughs,
retail outlet closures, a slowdown in real estate deals, second-hand cars collecting dust on
forecourts, et cetera.
However, we don’t need to wait until the Fed and its announcements of trailing data tell us
there’s a slowdown, all we need to do is read a few business headlines. For example (3):
Amazon founder Jeff Bezos has added his voice to the chorus of voices warning of
hardship ahead for the US economy. On social media, the billionaire wrote that the
economy was sending a signal to "batten down the hatches".
And…
"In my conversations with CEOs, they tell me they are rethinking business
opportunities and would like to see more certainty before committing to longer term
plans," Goldman Sachs boss David Solomon said.
"We're tightening economic conditions very, very quickly. And when you tighten
economic conditions it has an impact on these things"
Or for another (4):
Human resources staff at the social media company have told employees that they
were not planning for mass layoffs, but documents showed extensive plans to push out
staff and cut down on infrastructure costs were already in place before Musk offered to
buy the company, the Washington Post reported.
And a dozen others besides those examples. As a result, we’re now getting whispers from The
Fed that “December May Be It” as Jerome Powell, the small boy with a hammer, tries to use
the only tool at his disposal to make adjustments that aren’t suited to a tool designed for simple
bludgeoning. His problem may have been of the Fed’s own making and stemming from the
erroneous assumptions of “Transitory Inflation” last year, but it’s his problem all the same and
now his tough job is to confect a soft landing by tapping on the brakes of the rate rises in
Goldilocks style, trying to get the policy pivot juuust right so that it doesn’t cause mass layoffs
and a full-scale world recession, but at the same time reeling back inflation.
It’s at this point where The Fed’s hard-line jawbone meets the real world, as it’s easy to talk the
big “We’ll Smash The Scourge Of Inflation At All Cost” talk, not so easy to enact it when there
are countless millions of jobs on the line (as well as tiny details such as a potential market
crash). Last week’s messaging from The Fed Whisperer was the chink in the armour showing
for the first time, the tacit admission from The Boy With The Hammer that they are going to try
their very best to nuance the economy through this rough period, rather than stick to the
ideological doctrine and bring a severe recession down on The USA (and therefore, the world).
In effect, the Fed blinked on Friday and while that does not preclude the resumption of heavy
rates rises returning at some point later down the line (we know Volcker made the same
“mistake” during his rates rise policy period in the 80s, easing off the gas too early before
resuming the rises), it does mean that when push comes to shove, the Fed in late 2022 and
early 2023 will take its risks on the inflation side of its dual mandate, more than it will on the
employment side.
And that means it may well be time to buy some risk assets. See below for more.
4

Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Buying Newcore Gold (NCAU.v) and Goldshore Resources (GSHR.v) for leverage on a
gold sector rebound
Unlike many weeks and particularly when there are purchases planned and laid out, today’s
main fundies section isn’t going to be a long-winded affair. The job above all is to lay out some
details as to why I’m a buyer of Newcore Gold (NCAU.v) and Goldshore Resources (GSHR.v) in
the days to come and in these cases, the companies are known quantities to these pages.
There are three things to do, none of them should take too long:
 Consider why I am a buyer of these stocks in the days to come
 A brief re-cap of Newcore Gold
 A brief re-cap of Golsdshore Resources
Why buy these stocks now?: The main reason for the decision to buy these companies in
the days ahead is not company-specific. As noted
above, there’s reason to believe that The US
Federal Reserve is now signalling an end to the
sharp hikes in interest rates and if so, the “Pivot
Trade” is on in which we should see the USD
weaken and among other issues, the gold stocks
sector should see the opposite effect of the
crimping effect of lower prices for bullion on the
one hand, higher input costs on the other.
This six-month chart of NCAU and GSHR shows
the type of beating they’ve taken and while there
are plenty of other stocks and companies that
have also suffered this way, these two are prime
examples of what can happen. That chart also
implies the obvious if indeed the market tides changes; what goes down then goes up.
It’s important to understand that these two stocks are not the only two potential vehicles for a
speculative turnaround trade on the back of a macro improvement in the precious metals
sector; far from it in fact and over the course of the last three days I’ve mulled over the
prospects of several other companies. I am aware and hold no claim on NCAU or GSHR being
THE BEST way of playing any eventual rebound, however they do tick the boxes on the criteria
we need. They are:
 Solid and serious companies with good management rosters
 Have reasonable development assets with large gold resources
 Do sufficient volume to be readily tradable
 Have seen their equity prices beaten down hard
They are also known entities to these pages, as we have having tracked both stocks via the
“Watch List” sub-section of the Stocks to Follow list in 2022, in the case of NCAU since March
and the case of GSHR since July. The main reason to track both was to consider their
performance while waiting for a potential change in market trends, all with a view to running
speculative trades at the right moment.
There’s reason to believe that time has arrived, with the thinking behind that laid out in today’s
intro. Therefore and instead of importing a new name into The IKN Weekly, running a more
exotic trade on some-or-other silver junior etc, the decision is to K.I.S.S. and move these two
stocks, NCAU and GSHR, out of the theoretical trade section and into the real trade section by
buying a few shares of each. HOWEVER AND PLEASE BE VERY CLEAR: It’s one thing to
speculate the time is ripe to trade a potential Fed pivot, quite another to get it 100% right. I
5

am under zero illusions about the risks involved with today’s call and if you decide to follow me
in on this, you must do so with eyes wide open. A few more points to consider:
 There’s a big difference between “reason to believe” and reality. What we’ve seen in
the last few days is not definitive proof that the fed Pivot is on the way. What we have
is the first evidence that gives substance to the idea, there’s evidence that backs up the
theory, but it’s still only a theoretical for the future.
 I plan to make two small trades, not to re-mortgage property and sweat on a trade that
could make or break me financially. Consider my change in stance as a first step that, if
things go well, provide plenty of opportunity to bolster the position with further trades
and additions. But I am under no illusions and if the macro cards don’t fall well, these
trades will likely be losers.
 As mentioned previously (on umpteen occasions), buying the absolute bottom is dumb
luck. If it so happens that weeks 40-42 of 2022 turn out to be the very bottom, then I
got lucky and you won’t hear me puffing my chest out and boasting of my trading
prowess later. Also mentioned previously, I had resigned myself to sitting out the
market too long and probably buying in once the rebound had kicked in. Today’s
proposed trades are roughly the same but to the downside, I may well be buying in a
little too early and leaving an extra 10% or 20% of downside to somebody else. We’ll
see on that, but the small size of these initial bets mean that I won’t be sweating the
trades.
 Finally an importantly, as these two stocks have been on my Watch List for several
weeks they can be considered personal pet stocks. If you have your own pet stock that
fits the bill for a rebound trade, go for that one instead. There’s no need to use the
same vehicle as essentially, this is a macro call and trade that uses a couple of decent
sub-sector companies which fit the bill.
So with the trade philosophy hopefully laid out, a few notes on the two companies I am using
for the trade, starting with the one I like the most:
A brief re-cap of Newcore Gold (NCAU.v): We’ve tracked Newcore Gold (NCAU.v) since
IKN670 dated March 20th and ran our first close look at the fundamentals of the company in
IKN671 dated March 27th. Back then NCAU was a 50c stock and with 120.6m shares out, was
valued at C$60.3m and the proposition offered by NCAU and its main Enchi project in Ghana,
West Africa was a straightforward gold project with robust economics, growth upside in a good
address and a safe political jurisdiction.
All of those still apply today: We’ve seen NCAU
execute on its plan, complete its 90,000m drill
program, recently begin a more limited 5,000m
program to test deeper mineralization and is now
working toward its next milestone, the updated
mineral resource estimate (MRE) due some time
before the end of the current 4q22 quarter. What
has changed is the share price (right). The stock
lost the 50 line around the start of May and has
been under the kosh ever since. This weekend
sees it priced at 21c and after a modest
financing, there are now 138.3m shares out
giving a market cap of just over C$29m. There’s
no big mystery as to why NCAU is down, it’s suffered in much the same way as the vast
majority of gold exploreco companies in the downturn. Therefore and as with most peers, what
NCAU needs more than anything else is a tidal change in the sector’s fortunes, which put
simply, means that if gold starts going up again, its share price will benefit.
The plan is therefore, to buy into a couple of the better companies in this beaten-up sub-sector
6

and on that NCAU fits the bill. As these inserts from its latest corporate presentation show (5),
it already has a sizeable resource under 43-101 compliance and once the latest drill results are
incorporated into the resource, we should see the headline ounce count move above 2m oz
gold in a few weeks’ time.
Also and without going over ground already covered, Enchi already has a 43-101 compliant PEA
which shows highly robust economics. This table gives an overview, for more see IKN671 but
these numbers will soon be out of date:
The advent of the resource update should see the total resource move from 1.41m oz gold to
around or slightly above 2m oz gold and while project input costs have generally increased
since the PEA’s publication, those extra ounces should be enough to keep Enchi showing the
same type of robust economics seen above. The base case assumption of U$1,650/oz gold is
reasonable and roughly in-line with today’s gold pirce, but even at lower gold prices the project
works, with an after-tax IRR of 36% at U$1,500/oz gold and capital payback under three years.
As for corporate financials, NCAU has kept things tight in the last couple of quarters with its
main drilling program done, its expenses showing a benefit of nearly C$700k in 2q22 from
favourable exchange rates (NCAU reports in CAD$). The main expenses go straight into the
ground at Enchi and cash burn has dropped from the high expenses of 2021.
NCAU.v: Expenses breakdown
1.5
1.3
1.1
0.9
0.7
0.5 0.3
0.1
-0.1
-0.3
-0.5
It ran a $5m placement in July this year and that will boost the balance sheet as from this
quarter, that cash enough to full fund the current and more modest 5,000m diamond drill and
RC program that kicked off last month. NCAU will have to go back to market and raise working
capital at some point in the New Year, but can rely on friendly instos to do so and would
certainly like to get its price moving back up before the next round of financing.
7
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2
C$m
NCAU: Exploration & Evaluation expenditures
other exp 7.0 5.851
IR &marketing 6.0
Share based comp 5.0 4.442
Mgmt fees 4.0
3.0 2.297 2.706 2.837 2.5 1.7242.011 2.0
2.0
1.0 0.0740.059 0.372
0.0
source: company filings
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
C$m
source: company filings

NCAU.v: Assets
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
As liabilities are virtually zero, the cash treasury is basically the same as its working capital
position and we expect that to last until 1q23 or 2q23 at a stretch. By that time we may have
an updated PEA to go with the new resource count.
The final overview chart shows the evolution of the share count, which stands today at 138.3m.
At this weekend’s price of C$0.21, NCAU runs a market cap of C$29.04m. That’s U$21.3m at
current forex and if we assume the company delivers resource upgrade of at least 2m oz gold
later this quarter, we’re as close to U$10/oz in-situ as dammit is to swearing.
Those are cheap ounces when compared to the price fetched when a junior exploreco is bought
out by a larger producer, then again they’re not the cheapest ounces out there. Equally, 2m oz
gold is a decently sized gold deposit and Enchi has room to grow, but it’s hardly the biggest one
out there. However, it’s not just the quantity or price that matters and in NCAU, we have a
solid, serious exploreco with a strong management team aligned with its shareholders. We also
have a project in a proven safe political jurisdiction even on a world level and definitely in the
top tier on the African continent. We get a recognized board and plenty of institutional backing,
but above all we already have a project with an economic study that shows highly robust
economics, the type that can take downward adjustments and still remain attractive as an
eventual mine. In other words it’s one thing to have U$10/oz in-situ gold ounces, another to
have those ounces with plenty of de-risking already done to them.
A brief re-cap of Goldshore Resources (GSHR.v): If NCAU is the logical choice of the
head, Goldshore is the emotional pick from the heart. As we’ve noted in previous editions,
GSHR comes with the double-edged sword of heavy retail promotion and the vested interest of
market commentators that are either paid for their coverage, or they have plenty of vested
interest in seeing it higher after moving a lot of shares into other people’s accounts. It’s not for
these pages to get catty about the stock picking performance of other publications (it’s 2022,
glass houses and stones etc), but GSHR has been heavily pushed by many high-profile gurus
(real or wannabe) and high-traffic letters, as a result there’s now a raft of retail bagholders out
there. It’s somewhat unfair to pick out just one with so many to choose from, but as I am
8
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 tse22q3
$m NCAU.v: Liabilities per qtr
5
fixed
4.5
other current
4 cash+ST
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
source: company filings
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 tse22q3
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
LT liabs
current liabs
16 NCAU.v: Working Capital per qtr
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 tse22q3
source company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
160 NCAU.v: Shares Out
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
source: company filings
serahs
fo
snoillim

somewhat unfair let’s highlight the coverage of Goldshore during 2021 and 2022 by Casey
Research, these days part of the Stansberry publishing and stock promotion empire, mostly but
by no means exclusively via the Casey flagship
letter International Speculator. That letter
pumped the GSHR IPO (we quote its June 2021
edition “Action to Take: BUY shares of Goldshore
Resources (GSHR.V) up to C$1.00 or (GSHRF) up
to $0.85”) and continued to do so all year in
updates (without trawling through them all, we
have for example “Continue to BUY Goldshore
Resources (GSHR.V) up to C$1.00 or (GSHRF) up
to $0.85.” in its November 2021 edition. It then
got refresher coverage in the International
Speculator April 2022 edition with a reco that
included the classic, “I liked Goldshore last
summer when it IPO’d. I like it even more right
now at lower prices, with more upside potential” and a call to buy at up to C$0.70/U$0.55.
The latest corporate presentation (6) gives us a visual on the expected milestones and potential
catalysts for GSHR in the near future, here’s one of the slides as an example:
However, this trade set-up is different from that of NCAU and it’s no coincidence that this brief
section doesn’t include the basic overview financials or thoughts on the fundamental reasons to
hold this stock from now to the end of the year. THIS IS THE MARKET SENTIMENT BET, the
one that comes with reasonable company and project fundamentals, but relies more upon the
potential for momentum to build in a stock price that a lot of people want to see higher, due to
significant retail bagholders embedded into the stock.
We opened soft coverage on GDHR in IKN687 dated July 22nd in the note “Goldshore
Resources (GSHR.v): Marking a potential future trade”. On that day we went over the basic
pros and cons of this stock, noted that it had just announced a throttling back of its previously
aggressive drilling campaign from eight drills and would limp to the end of 2022 with just one
or two drills turning in order to preserve cash and considered its next likely milestones including
an inaugural 43-101 compliant resource estimate by the end of this year (perhaps early 2023)
followed by a PEA in early 2023 (now perhaps mid-2023). At that time, GSHR shares were
priced at C$0.265 and at 143.8m shares out, ran a market cap of C$38.1m with an IKN
estimated C$16m at bank. Those were interesting numbers for a resource of a historic 4m oz
gold M+I+I and will certainly be confirmed at least that number in official 43-101 terms once
the latest drill assays are incorporated. Also, Moss Lake has undoubted exploration upside and
at least according to management at least, the project zone arm-waves at 10m oz gold
eventually. See IKN687 for more but long story short, that’s why we opened soft coverage on
the stock at that time and added it to the Stocks to Follow “Watchlist” section. We ended that
IKN687 note with these words:
“These are the stocks that you buy and forget about, then come back when they’ve
doubled or tripled as the market lifts them higher. I’m not a buyer yet and I don’t think
9

you should be either, not for the moment, but as from next weekend GSHR will form
part of the new “Watchlist” section of the Stocks to Follow list in order to track its
progress (or further decline). When the market turns, this will too.”
This weekend GSHR is an 18c stock, down another 32% since that time and justification for the
“look but don’t touch” decision back then. With the potential for the yearned-for market turn
now rising and GSHR shares now firmly in the bargain basement, the time has come to roll the
dice a little and buy a few of these shares.
Discussion and conclusion
In order to underscore this desk’s position that the two stocks chosen as vehicles for the
potential sector rebound and relief rally, here are a few other stocks that I considered for this
weekend’s note before settling on the two above:
 I could have reasonably picked Anacortes Mining (XYZ.v) or ATAC Resources ATC.v), also
members of the current Watch List, but their lack of volume and market disinterest makes
them more likely trades in a second stage of any sector rebound and relief rally.
 Another possible way of playing any upturn would be to add to current positions and two
stocks on the current Specs list that fit the bill are Palamina Corp (PA.v) and Pure Gold
(PGM.v). Both have been beaten down and offer decent rebound potential, as well as
leverage to an uptick in the gold price.
 Other stocks recently mentioned here at The IKN Weekly are Altaley Mining (ATLY.v) and
Abrasilver (ABRA..v). Of the two, ABRA is a valid alternative as its Diablillos project looks
better by the month, but it’s not bargain-basement cheap. As for ATLY, it’s suddenly seeing
a big seller dump millions of shares on the market and until we’ve got some clarity on that,
I’ll watch without entering.
 Finally, another option would have been to go beyond those stocks currently under soft
coverage and pick names new to The IKN Weekly. After all, there are literally dozens of
beaten-up and dirt cheap explorecos out there which wouldn’t need much in order to put in
a decent percentage rebound. Three that made the long-list are Silver X Mining (AGX.v),
Apollo Silver Corp (APGO.v) and Zacapa Resources (ZACA.v) and, while none of those could
be described as perfect stocks or hairless stories, they’d fit the bill nicely for momentum
trades on turnarounds that could return a pleasant and quick win if the metals prices run.
However and after due consideration, there was no need to re-invent the wheel and in
Goldshore (GSHR.v) and Newcore (NCAU.v) I have two good candidates for the role that I
already understand as stories and stocks to a greater or lesser extent, feel comfortable about
trading over the near or medium-term and with a modicum of fortune, should provide a decent
percentage difference as long as the precious metals complex puts in a rebound. They both fit
the bill as decent and larger sized gold stories with market presence, tradable volumes and very
beaten down share prices that can pop hard given the right circumstances.
But to be clear, this is a risk trade predicated less on the fundamentals of those companies,
more on the potential that were close to a bottom in the gold and PM sectors. Up to now we’ve
had plenty of theory and talk of the Fed Pivot to consider but scant evidence that Jay Powell
was going to flinch, but last week’s WSJ ‘whisper’ was taken seriously enough by the broad
market two reverse the USD in world markets and set off a rally in broad market equities. If, as
we suppose, the Fed now moves with that sentiment and inflation markers give them room to
slacken the current +0.75% per FOMC pace come December, it would be all this anticipatory
market needs to weaken the USD further and cause a neck-breaker of a rally in gold and its
stocks. This is not a riskless trade; far from it and there’s good reason why I’m going to take
baby steps into any speculation, starting this week with small purchases of two stocks that I’ve
tracked for several months. However, the “Keep Powder Dry” directive cannot last forever and
ultimately, this desk will speculate on the slings and arrows of outrageous junior mining
fortune. It’s what we do, after all. So wish me luck and if you decide to come in for the ride,
make sure your bets are ones you can afford to lose at this stage.
10

Stocks to Follow
A book of explorecos and development plays isn’t going to spring and rebound as sharply as the
high volume senior PM stocks and Tier 2 operators, but our Stocks to Follow list still managed
to benefit from the relief rally and return a positive week. There were five winners (RIO.v,
ALDE.v, PA.v, APN.v, WRN.to) from our 17 covered stocks, an abnormally large five unchanged
stocks (MAI.v, ARG.to, MIRL.cse, ELBM.v, XYZ.v) and while there were seven losers (QCCU.v,
CKG.v, PGM.v, NCAU.v, ATC.v, GSHR.v, MENE.v) none took big hits and, dare I day it, three of
them were the “right losers” as I don’t own them yet (and now plan to buy two of them). The
only big percentage move was a winner, with Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v up 20.0%) closing at its highest
price for over three months (though damning it by faint praise).
We currently have 17 stocks under consideration and I own shares in 11 of them. If all goes to
plan, it will still be 17 stocks this time next week but with 13 active trades. Only two blobs of
green and thankfully, the personal largest position is still one of them. Small mercies.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.47 123.8% $0.75 first tgt, #1 idea
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Amerigo Res ARG.to STR BUY C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$0.98 -27.9% CheapCu w/low downside risk
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v BUY C$0.275 25-Apr-21 C$0.165 -40.0% Now drilling. Easy hold
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v HOLD C$0.83 22-Apr-18 C$0.15 -81.9% Cheap on permit probs, appeal
SPECULATIVE TRADES
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v SPEC BUY C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$1.87 -39.1% Au leverage, small trade so far
Pure Gold PGM.v SPEC BUY C$0.14 26-Sep-22 C$0.12 -14.3% near-term sm spec, Au in Ca
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v BUY C$0.72 16-May-21 C$0.70 -2.8% trying patience
Palamina Corp PA.v SPEC BUY C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.075 -74.6% Au expl in S.Peru
Altiplano Metals APN.v HOLD C$0.31 17-Sep-21 C$0.195 -37.1% Cheap entry, plan on track.
Minera IRL MIRL.cse hold C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.085 -56.4% CEO change will move stock
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
Newcore Gold NCAU.v BUYING C$0.51 20-Mar-22 C$0.21 -58.8% BUYING FOR SPEC TRADE
ATAC Res ATC.v SPEC BUY C$0.095 11-Sep-22 C$0.085 -10.5% Cheap Yukon neighbour play
Electra Battery ELBM.v WATCH C$5.31 20-Mar-22 C$4.03 -24.1% potential battery metals play
Anacortes Mining XYZ.v WATCH C$0.49 22-Jul-22 C$0.50 2.0% potential gold exploreco trade
Goldshore Res GSHR.v BUYING C$0.33 22-Jul-22 C$0.18 -45.5% BUYING FOR SPEC TRADE
Western Copper WRN.to SPEC BUY C$2.41 20-Mar-22 C$1.85 -23.2% potential copper trade
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.66 6-Dec-20 C$0.47 -28.8% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
Superior Gold SGI.v Oct'22 C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.24 -74.7% Q3 prod fail was last straw
2015 to 2021 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for a few notes on some of the covered companies:
11

Newcore Gold (NCAU.v): BUYING. A line here to make sure those of you who normally skip
the boring fundies section are also aware that I plan to buy a few NCAU this week as a
speculative punt on a rebound in the gold price.
Goldshore Resources (GSHR.v): BUYING. In similar style and mostly copypaste, a line here
to make sure those of you who normally skip the
boring fundies section are also aware that I plan to
buy a few GSHR this week as a speculative punt on a
rebound in the gold price.
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v): It’s still firmly in the penalty box
and the price performance this week shouldn’t be
over-exaggerated, but the +20% move from RIO.v
this week also came with a decent uptick in volume.
There’s at least one buyer out there willing and able to
pay 15c for these shares, the buying on Thursday was
constant and Friday’s more moderate volume didn’t
come with price weakness.
Chesapeake Gold (CKG.v): An object lesson in what
thin volumes and a lack of market maker can do to
your market cap. Although CKG has been hitting the
promo circuit and CEO Alan Pangbourne pops up
regularly at webinars of all sorts, the stock continues
to suffer from a lack of volume and as a result, its
price changes fluctuate wildly. A good example of this
was Friday, when the stock opened up 8.8% at the
bell on a small buyer, only to make an intraday drop of
11.4% as a seller with 10k or so shares to get rid of
sold into the afternoon.
It is the way it is and CKG is likely to stay this way until we have clarity on its metallurgy and a
plan to move forward on an economic study in 2023.
The Copper Basket
After forty-two weeks of 2022, The Copper Basket shows a loss of 47.27% level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/22 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Copper Mtn CMMC.to 3.42 210.166 382.50 1.82 -46.8%
2 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.77 88.118 293.43 3.33 -11.7%
3 Western Copper WRN.to 2.00 151.451 280.18 1.85 -7.5%
4 Oroco Res OCO.v 2.04 203.4 160.69 0.79 -61.3%
5 Nevada Copper NCU.to 0.71 448.437 103.14 0.23 -67.6%
6 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.84 138.401 96.88 0.70 -16.7%
7 Hot Chili HCH.v 1.53 109.223 92.84 0.85 -44.4%
8 Regulus Res. REG.v 1.06 101.85 87.59 0.86 -18.9%
9 Meridian Min MNO.to 1.18 153.735 59.96 0.39 -66.9%
10 C3 Metals CCCM.v 0.16 645.379 38.72 0.06 -62.5%
11 Doré Copper DCMC.v 0.79 84.1 25.65 0.305 -61.4%
12 Kutcho Copper KC.v 0.88 103.94 22.35 0.215 -75.6%
13 QC Copper QCCU.v 0.34 129.06 21.29 0.165 -51.5%
14 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.58 79.24 19.02 0.24 -58.6%
15 Coast Copper COCO.v 0.13 41.335 2.27 0.055 -57.7%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg -47.27%
12

A quiet week for The Copper Basket, as while the nine downers (CMMC.to, OCO.v, MARI.to,
NCU.to, MNO.to, REG.v, KC.v, ECU.v, QCCU.v)
beat out four winners (WRN.to, HCH.v, ALDE.v, 10% The Copper Basket 2022, weekly evolution
DCMC.v) and two unchanged stocks (CCCM.v, 0%
COCO.v) on the basic headcount and the overall -10%
average dropped by half a percent, be they up or
-20%
down moves were small in nature and a penny or
-30%
two. There were no big percentage moves in any
-40%
of the stocks, the biggest in either direction
-50%
being Regulus (REG down 5.5% and on low
-60%
volumes).
So a week where the fun, action and market
momentum was found in other stocks rather than in the copper sub-sector and the relative flat-
lining of copper on the week was the main reason. I’ve chosen a simple six-month copper price
chart for this week’s visual aid and
while the red comments are there
to denote what we need to get
bullish again, the overall story of
last week (and since the Northern
summer ended, in fact) is the
relatively stable price action in
copper. Good ol’ boring stable is
glass half full/empty according to
your own preference but at the
moment and in this market, I’d
take the optimistic view as there
are clearly real buyers happy to pay
for real copper at these levels and
without worrying too much about
what the US Dollar does on the
daily basis.
Moving on, we dedicate this week’s carefully
curated copper comments section to the ever-
quotable Richard Adkerson, head honcho of
FreePort McMoRan (FCX). His company reported its
Q3 financials on Thursday, duly beat the street and
when the market turned up on Friday morning, was
one of the main beneficiaries in the copper space as
seen in this ten-day chart comparing FCX to the
main copper producers’ ETF (COPX). What’s more,
the Conference Call was widely reported due to
Adkerson’s thoughts on the copper market and
that’s what we’re interested in today. Here’s how
Reuters did the job (7):
"We certainly have no problem selling copper," Freeport Chief Executive Richard
Adkerson told investors on a conference call. "It's just striking how negative the
financial markets are about this industry and yet the physical market is so tight."
Also…
“We’re not seeing customers scaling back orders. Customers are really fighting to get products”
Those are the type of comments that grab the attention of miners, daytraders and commodities
gurus alike. With copper continuing to languish under U$3.50/lb due macro headwinds and
auguries of world recession, hearing about continued and out-sized demand for a major world-
level product gets contrarian juices flowing. However context is required, as back in when FCX
reported its 2q22 results, the Q2 FCX conference call came with this from Adkerson: “There has
13
ts1naJ ht9naJ ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6bef ht31 ht02 ht72 t6raM ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3rpA ht01 ht71 ht42 1yam ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5nuj ht21 ht91 ht62 dr3yluj ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 t7gua ht41 ts12 ht82 t4pes ht11 ht81 ht52 n2tco ht9 ht61 dr32
source: IKN calcs

been, to date, no significant impact in physical demand (for copper). Today’s market is tight.”
At first sight, the samo-samo headline from the head of the world’s biggest publicly owned
copper miner. But that’s something of a disservice, as if we go beyond the headlines and
consider what Adkerson has really been saying it becomes clear he’s also aware of the
difference in the cycles of copper pricing and copper demand. One example that stuck in your
author’s memory was in March this year, when Russia was in its first flush of attacks on
Ukrainian soil and copper was priced much higher than today. Richard Adkerson appeared at a
conference with the (at the time) price bullish Goldman Sachs team (Jeff Currie et al) and,
while agreeing with GS that demand for the metal was good, Adkerson wasn’t ready to endorse
the very bullish price forecasts being used at the time. In his words, “Copper Tightness “Is Far
Beyond a Price Issue”” (8) and in hindsight, makes him smarter at the way the market
developed in 2022 than either Goldman Sachs or this very desk. Readers are aware that I was
also bullish on copper and didn’t expect prices to drop much lower than U$4.00/lb, even in a
downturn, with U$3.80/lb as a downside limit. Today’s sub-U$3.50/lb levels tell you how smart
that call was, so Adkerson’s more nuanced approach demands more attention than just
repeating headlines or the occasional snappy conference sound bite. Take for example this
interview (9) with Bloomie in September in which he said, “The short-term situation is
contributing to the stronger outlook longer term because it's having an impact on supply
development,” the quote of a man who sees the bifurcation between current demand and
current price, but also understands why it exists in the near-term. More importantly, he also
understands why it cannot last much longer but on a timescale germane to copper mine
builders, not copper traders or share flippers and if the above isn’t enough to show that, here’s
a final Adkerson quote from July this year (10):
“But all of this takes years to execute, as you can see from our company. The results
will be higher copper prices. The current price for copper is unsustainable. Absent a
global long-term economic collapse, that is simply inevitable.”
Enough Adkerson and his wise saws and modern instances, we move to our weekly copper
inventories tracking section. As usual the data comes from Cochilco:
 The overall world aggregate for copper inventories made another move higher last
week, up by a total of 18,975 metric tonnes (mt) to close the week at 263,116mt and
the main action once again centred around stock in China (with Russia somewhere in
the background).
 For the second week in a row, the SHFE saw a sharp rise in copper stocks, rising by
25,820mt to close at 89,566mt on Friday, See the LME data below for more on a
dataset that may well be connected and we should recall that just three weeks ago, the
world of metals was wringing its collective hands about a large block of Russian copper
inventory inside the LME system. We also underscore this weekend how the recent
jump in SHFE copper stocks is a seasonal abnormality, as in normal Q4s the
warehouses are depleted as end-users move to secure supply for their year-end and
pre-Chinese New Year manufacturing drives.
LME: Cu tonnage under cancelled warrant
 At the LME, headline stocks dropped by
5,625mt to close the week at 137,325mt but
it’s the move in cancelled warrants that
makes the real headlines. For those of you who believe in pure coincidences, note that
the very sharp rise in SHFE inventories of
around 59kmt in the last two weeks has
happened at the same time LME cancelled
warrants have risen sharply by around
62kmt.
 At the Comex, another standard drawdown week and another 1,200mt leaving its
stores, the total now 36,228mt. No biggie.
14
00142 52074 57334 00714 52045 05205 52027 52418 52926 05694 57332 52271 05761 52511 57471 52581 52862 00642 00743 57924 00914 52975 05174 05803 04441 0588 0018 5786 00864
05386 100000
90000
80000
70000
60000
50000 40000 30000
20000
10000
0
dr3rpa ht01 ht71 ht42 1.yam ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5nuj ht21 ht91 ht62 dr3yluj ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7gua ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4pes ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2tco ht9 ht61 dr32
mt Cu
source: Cochilco

The second of our two dedicated SHFE charts is the best to see how the recent influx of copper
into its warehouses has changed the make-up of the market. If it does turn out to be Russian
copper from the LME, its cancelled warrant total is about to drop along with the headline
tonnage under storage and if so, expect plenty more talk of copper supply tightness to do the
media rounds.
Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2014 to date
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
15
31'13ceD dr32 ht02 ht51 ht01 ht5tco ht03 ht52 dn22 ht71 ht21 ht6pes ts1von 5102ht72ced ts12 ht71 ht21 ht7guA dn2tcO ht4ceD ht92 ht62 ts12 ht61 ht01 7102
ht5von
ts13 ht52 dn22 ht42 ht91 ht41 ht9 9102
dr3bef
ts13 ht62 ts12 ht51 ht01 0202ht5naj 0202ts1ram ht62 ts12 ht61 ht11 0202ht6ced ts13 ht82 dr32 ht81 ht21 ht7 2202dn2naj ht72 ht42 ht91 ht41 ht9
Mt Cu
|
source: Cochilco
SHFE copper inventory levels, 2018 to 2022
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
MT Cu 2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
source: Cochilco data
To underscore our long-standing call on the continued robust demand for copper in China (as
well as the thoughts of the FCX CEO above), a final snippet from this FT report (11) on its own
Mining Summit, that happened in London UK on Wednesday. For sure you’re going to get
bullish remarks from people with a vested interest in the sector, but the comments from the
Trafigura representative were fully in line with this desk’s position:
Speaking at the FT Mining Summit on Thursday, Kostas Bintas, co-head of metals and
minerals trading at Trafigura, said the copper market is today running with inventories
that cover 4.9 days of global consumption and is expected to finish this year at 2.7
days, according to its own forecasts. Copper stocks are usually counted in weeks.
…
While the strong dollar and global recession fears have weighed on copper prices in
recent months, executives in the global metals industry argued on Thursday that
limited supply in the market remained supportive of prices.
“While there is so much attention being paid to the weakness in the real estate sector
in China, quietly, the demand for infrastructure, electric vehicle-related copper demand,
more than makes up for it,” Bintas said. “It actually not only cancels completely the real
estate weakness, but also adds to their consumption growth increase.”
Mr. Bintas also had comments on ex-China demand:
He added that the situation was no different in Europe, with the region accelerating its
transition into renewables as it tries to wean itself off Russian gas, leading to copper
demand increase.
“It is not accidental that the EU has decided to bring forward the target of doubling its
solar capacity from 2030 to 2025. All that requires a lot of copper,” he said. “Look at
electric vehicles everywhere, [the numbers on the road] are surprising to the upside.

That’s a lot of copper too. As a result, we’ve been drawing down stocks throughout this
very difficult year.”
So now you know. We move to notes on some of our basket stocks:
Copper Mountain (CMMC.to): We’re two weeks on from the extended note on CMMC in
IKN699 entitled “Copper Mountain (CMMC.to): Two reasons to buy and two reasons to pass”
and after some huffing and puffing, the share price of this weekend is all-but unchanged from
the IKN699 price of C$1.81.
Doré Copper (DCMC.v): On Friday DCMC announced (12) the closure of its private placement
announced in late August and raised a total gross proceeds of C$5.75m from the sale of
7,666,820 standard shares at 30c, as well as 9,583,525 flow-thru shares priced at 36c. The
gross proceeds total beat the company’s target of raising $5m. Though priced cheaply it will be
a welcome result for the company and not a moment too soon, they were down to “Working
capital $1.9m including Quebec Exploration Credit” at the start of September. As for the share
count, that now pops from 66.8m to an IKN estimated 84.1m.
Coast Copper (COCO.v): On Tuesday COCO announced (13) the closing of its deal to sell
three properties next to the Red Chris mine for a total of $3m, the terms being half cash and
half shares in six equal payments every six months and the first $250k/$250k payment duly
received. In other circumstances, it would be easy to be cynical about the deal and assume it
was all about filling treasury in order to pay officer salaries and not much else. But COCO
comes with better optics than that, due to the way CEO Travis is a buyer of his own stock and
owns a large chunk of current shares out. That alignment means he should care for retail
minnows and it makes COCO a valid high risk/high reward option in the event of a sector
rebound.
Marimaca Copper (MARI.to): Further to the note on MARI that expanded and found its way
into the ‘Market Watching’ section of last week’s edition, IKN700, the people at MARI were kind
enough to reach out and contact this desk and after exchanging mails and arranging a time
slot, Nico Cookson and Hayden Locke of MARI spent half an hour looking at my ugly face via
Zoom on Friday morning. they walked me through some of the salient details of their
company’s updated resource estimate (MRE) as published this month, ran over the numbers
used as inputs, explained their benchmarking system and did a good job of going into the
details, with all my queries and questions answered in an open and transparent way.
Which is exactly what I needed, after all in last week’s note the conclusion included that the
bare numbers as seen in the NR was “…too much to swallow without getting some detailed
breakdown from the company” and detail was what I got. All good, which means my concerns
are down to just three issues:
 Input costs are likely high: They explained their input costs as being benchmarked to trailing
prices, which means that capture the pre-inflationary pulse costs into their averages and
that means they are low-balling reality, no two ways about it. There’s a clear caveat in the
way that “Marimaca works” even with significantly higher capex and opex due to the robust
theoretical economics (spreadsheets never lie, or something) but I’d much prefer my junior
company to give me real world inputs, rather than optimize and expect me to adjust for
cynicism.
 I do not like the U$4.00/lb base case copper assumption. They again justified the U$4.00/lb
base case by using a trailing average to market and peer comparisons, but the fact remains
that when spot is U$3.50/lb it comes over as bad optics to blithely assume copper will be
higher. And like it or not, but optics matter in this market.
 They are setting themselves up for problems in the DFS, scheduled for approx this time next
year. When you announce to the world that you have a resource of an all-category 2.1Bn lbs
using U$4.00/lb copper and 0.15% cut-off, what happens this time next year when the DFS
compiler insists on a more reasonable base case for metals prices? Or for a cut-off that
moves back to 0.22% Cu? I understand the company’s desire to show a resource that’s as
16

large as possible and as CEO Locke mentioned during the ConfCall, even the material at a
0.10% cut would probably eventually run because once the mine is built and the embedded
capital paid off, you suddenly get to extend mine life using far lower inputs. All the same,
MARI risks delivering a DFS to the market on a smaller resource and leaving people
wondering.
The bottom line is that I now have a better idea of the resource, thanks to the company kindly
reaching out and offering up plenty of information on what they are doing and I still consider
Marimaca to be one of the most promising copper projects out there, but on due consideration
I see no need to make any move on the stock before next year’s DFS, not least because it’s
unlikely to find a buyer before that document is published. But to close on a positive note, I will
say that after many years of doing this job, I’ve come to recognize that the companies willing to
reach out after receiving any type of negative coverage from The IKN Weekly or The IKN open
blog are the ones with the right attitude, with companies and stories worth their salt and with
little or nothing to hide. It was good to see MARI come forward and happily defend their corner
(in very good spirit, too), which counts in their favour.
The Producer Basket
After Meaning Of Life weeks, the Producer Basket shows a loss of 21.34% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/22 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 62.02 797.44 33.79 42.37 -31.7%
2 Barrick GOLD 19.00 1779 26.70 15.01 -21.0%
3 Franco-Nevada FNV 138.29 191.192 23.17 121.19 -12.4%
4 Agnico Eagle AEM 53.14 454.904 19.59 43.07 -18.9%
5 Wheaton PM WPM 42.93 450.3 14.72 32.69 -23.9%
6 Gold Fields GFI 10.99 887.72 7.14 8.04 -26.8%
7 Kinross Gold KGC 5.81 1296.5 4.64 3.58 -38.4%
8 B2Gold BTG 3.93 1055.6 3.31 3.14 -20.1%
9 Alamos Gold AGI 7.69 392.503 3.01 7.66 -0.4%
10 Sandstorm SAND 6.20 223.79 1.11 4.97 -19.8%
All prices and stock quotes in U$ Port. avg -21.34%
All ten of the producer companies in our basket moved up last week and the rises were fairly
homogenous, a classic sign of top-down money moving into the sector via GDX (and perhaps
GDXJ). There were no double figure winners and the ranges of gains were from +4.0% (NEM)
to +7.6% (SAND), the average around +6%. However, we didn’t do as well as the GDX
benchmark and our lead is now down to just 0.9%...it’s going to be a race to the line.
The 2022 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
40% comparative to GDX control
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
Gold Fields (GFI) and Yamana (AUY): With a month to go before shareholders vote on the
merger with Yamana (AUY), on Friday GFI published its Circular on the South African JSE
17
ts1naJ ht9naJ ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6bef ht31 ht02 ht72 t6ram ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3rpa ht01 ht71 ht42 1yam ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5nuj ht21 ht91 ht62 dr3luj ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7 ht41 ts12 ht82 t4pes ht11 ht81 ht52 n2tco ht9 ht61 dr32
The 2022 Producer Basket: Percentage difference
5.0% between GDX benchmark & basket (negative = IKN ahead)
ikn 4.0%
gdx control 3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
source: NYSE, IKN Calcs
-4.0%
ts1naJ ht9naJ ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6bef ht31 ht02 ht72 t6ram ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3rpa ht01 ht71 ht42 1yam ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5nuj ht21 ht91 ht62 dr3luj ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7 ht41 ts12 ht82 t4pes ht11 ht81 ht52 n2tco ht9 ht61 dr32
source: IKN calcs, NYSE data

market and Yamana published its Management Information Circular to SEDAR and EDGAR (14).
 Yamana votes on November 21st and needs 66.67% support for the deal
 Gold Fields votes on November 22nd and needs 75% support for the deal
At the time the deal was announced, GFI CEO Chris Griffith came under a lot of pressure from
large insto holders who claimed the deal valued AUY too highly. As a relatively new CEO at GFI
he was under threat of losing his job, but since
the nadir of sentiment in early July he has
managed to convince the key players on the
merits of the deal. His case was also bolstered
last week by an independent valuation of AUY
done by Canada’s RBC, which valued the
company ex-financials at U$6.7Bn, right in the
deal’s ballpark. This comparative chart of GFI
vs. AUY shows how Yamana’s stock has held up
better than GFI’s in the last four months (in
fact, better than most as our Producer Basket
table demonstrates) and it now seems as
though CEO Griffith will get what he wants (and
AUY CEO Marrone gets the big payout he’s
been seeking for years, as AUY has been
quietly shopped since 2018).
However, it’s not quite a lock to go through with those high hurdles for acceptance and last
week also saw a potential negative in the mix. South African trade paper Mining Mx reported
this on Friday (15):
THREE members of Gold Fields’ executive committee, including the company’s head
of strategy have resigned from the company.
Sven Lunsche, spokesman for Gold Fields, confirmed the resignations of Brett
Mattison, executive vice president of strategy, planning and corporate development,
Taryn Leishman, executive vice president: group head of legal and compliance, and
Avishkar Nagaser, executive vice president: Investor relations and corporate affairs.
A circular, detailing Gold Fields’ proposed Yamana takeover and planned for
distribution imminently, would confirm the resignations, said Lunsche. “The optics
obviously don’t look great ahead of the merger, but there separate and personal
reasons for each resignation,” he said.
Troubling optics indeed. The deal is likely to be voted up, but proponents will have a month to
sweat it out.
The TinyCaps List
After forty-two weeks of 2022, the TinyCaps show a loss of 44.14% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/22 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Aurelius Min AUL.v 0.24 45.836 4.13 0.09 -62.5%
Golden Pursuit GDP.v 0.13 34.638 4.50 0.13 0.0%
Infield Min INFD.v 0.06 48.445 1.21 0.025 -58.3%
Kingfisher Met KFR.v 0.30 103.007 13.91 0.135 -55.0%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.12 57.686 7.50 0.13 8.3%
Manitou Gold MTU.v 0.06 344.57 8.61 0.025 -58.3%
Melkior Res MKR.v 0.295 24.011 4.80 0.20 -32.2%
Precipitate Gold PRG.v 0.105 129.322 7.76 0.06 -42.9%
Signature Res SGU.v 0.07 238.4 2.38 0.01 -85.7%
Winshear Gold WINS.v 0.08 61.585 2.46 0.04 -50.0%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg -44.14%
18

This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $20m. They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a
little and allowed sub-U$20m market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, but it was a particularly depressing exercise to trawl through the whole of the TSXV and find companies
that are small enough, but with life in them. The vast majority of sub-$20m stocks are broken stocks, either
traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2022. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
The TinyCaps basket average dropped another 5.5% last week on the back of sellers willing to
take any price in order to get out of their illiquid
penny play. All six of the losers dropped by 15% TinyCaps, 2022 weekly tracker
10%
double figure percentages, the order of pain 5%
being Signature (SGU.v down 33.3%), 0%
-5%
Kingfisher (KFR.v down 20.6%), Winshear
-10%
(WINS.v down 20.0%), Manitou (MTU.v down -15%
-20%
16.7%), Melkior (MKR.v down 11.1%) and
-25%
Golden Pursuit (GPR.v down 10.3%). While -30%
-35%
most of those losers were small in real money
-40%
terms (a penny of halfpenny is enough to cause -45%
a big dent in these market caps now), they’re
indicative of the pain of holding pennycrapper
losers in an illiquid market and all-too typical of
the nasty end that comes to the small money wagered in these very high risk plays.
The only respite last week came from Latin Metals (LMS.v), which popped hard by 3c (i.e.
30.0%) on the back of a renewed marketing program focused on social media awareness…so
take that for what it’s worth.
Latin Metals (LMS.v): Up 3c and that’s 30%, but there are caveats with this move. First up,
it’s on the back of a currently open placement priced at 10c which came with a modest upsize
NR last week, from $1m to $1.2m. Secondly, this move was mostly on thin Friday volume of
less than 100k shares and is unlikely to stick. Thirdly, it’s worth remembering this stock traded
nearly 1m shares at 8.5c in one day the week before last, there are sellers out there. LMS was
also seen on the airwaves, pushing its story on social media and at the New Orleans investment
show and pushing its Barrick JV angle. Which is fair enough, but there’s no reason to pay 13c
next week if you want some.
Kingfisher Metals (KFR.v): Down 10% the week before last and 20% this week, KFR is
paying the price of returning those unimpressive drill numbers from Cloud Drifter ten days ago.
It’s one thing to find gold, another to find it in enough grade or width to create enough interest
in a remote location and while nobody can fault this team for having identified a prospective
target, “geologically interesting” drill results are simply not enough.
Signature Resources (SGU.v): The near-5m shares traded last week, including 2.7m on
Thursday in the sales that pushed SGFU down to its current 1c price, represent around $50k in
cash value so we’re not doing to dwell too long on this remnant and broken story. Destined for
some sort of rollback and re-capitalization, SGU is going to need a better project to poke at if it
wants to avoid full Zombie status.
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future
I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
19
dn2naJ ht9
naJ
ht61naJ dr32 ht03 ht6bef ht31 ht02 ht72 ht6ram ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3rpa ht01 ht71 ht42 ts1yam ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5nuj ht21 ht91 ht62 dr3yluj ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7gua ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4pes ht11 ht81 ht52 dn2tco ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03
source: IKN calcs, TSX data

Regional politics
Ecuador: An interview with Vice-Minister of Mining Andrés Wierdak
An interview published by Ecuadorian daily paper Primicias last week (16) with the country’s
Vice-Minister of Mining, Andrés Wierdak, brought plenty of insight on the problems facing the
sector on the political and social side after the “agreements” between government and
community representatives as reported two weeks ago. The interview gives the government’s
side of the story and when we compare what they think happened to what the community and
social groups say now that the negotiations are done, it becomes clear that either one side or
the other will have to give way or there’s more trouble brewing.
So to the Q&A and after going over a few of the basic parameters of Ecuador’s mining sector
for the generalist reader, the interview gets more interesting about a third of the way through
when the reporter, who’d obviously done their homework before sitting down with the Vice-
Minister, got to the thornier issues of the recent negotiation process between the government
and the indigenous social groups (led by CONAIE) as regards the mining sector. The first
question was on the proposed opening of the mining cadastre (public land registry), the process
to register lands suitable for mining concessions, that has been on hold for two years. The
Lasso government planned to re-open the mining registry at the end of this year before the
June protests and the current controversy around mining and the executive’s plan has
apparently not changed.
Reporter: When will the mining cadastre launch?
Andrés Wierdak: In the second half of December 2022. There is no way it doesn’t happen
We need to improve the system and rules for the opening. Mining companies will be able
to apply for new mining concessions once the cadastre is opened.
Reporter: How many concessions will be available?
AW: At the moment, there are 1.7m hectares under concession and we have another
3.7m hectares available, but not all those areas have mining potential.
Reporter: How are you going to open the cadastre if an agreement was not reached at
the negotiation table with the indigenous movements?
AW: That came as a surprise to me, I participated in the negotiations and this was an
agreement, I don’t know what happened (afterward). We cannot know where to run
prior consultation if there is no mining cadastre. What is clear is that we will not assign
mining rights without a prior consultation, but only where one is required, i.e. where
there are indigenous peoples and nationalities.
They cannot say that there are indigenous peoples in all of Ecuador. For example, if a
concession is requested in El Oro, where there are no indigenous nationalities, there’s no
need to run a prior consultation. (Repeats) They cannot say that there are indigenous
peoples in all of Ecuador. Mining projects in production or exploration phase will now
have anything to stop them from the agreements from the negotiations, because they
already have their permits.
Reporter: So why are there delays in some projects?
AW: There are seven projects scheduled to go into construction before 2025. They are
Curipamba, La Plata, Loma Larga, Ruta del Cobre, Mirador Stage Two, Cascabel (copper)
and Warintza (copper). Of these seven projects, six are delayed because they haven’t
done a pre-legislative consultation that allows them to get their environmental permit.
The only one that doesn’t need it is Mirador Stage Two, because it’s part of a project
that’s already running.
Reporter: What is a Prelegislative Consultation and why haven’t they been completed?
AW: They are the guidelines or regulations on how to carry out an environmental
consultation. The only thing missing is the publication of the Executive Decrees.
Reporter: Why haven't they been issued if they are in the hands of the Executive?
AW: The decrees are ready, but have not been issued due to political reasons. I can't
20

give any more details.
Reporter: The negotiations (with the indigenous communities and social groups) agreed
to form technical review bodies with the right of decision to review previously granted
mining concessions and permits. What influence will it have over mines already in
production?
AW: We are open to any oversight and to hand over information. But the working groups
have to analyze the legality of how they’ve included the word “legally binding”
(“vinculante”) in the agreement documents.
Reporter: It gives the impression that the working group can decide whether a project
that already has its permits goes ahead or not.
AW: In my personal opinion, the supervisory role will only have an information-giving
role. I understand that the indigenous groups would like oversight bodies for large-scale
mining operations that are already in production and I don’t think that will be a problem
for the operators of those concessions, as they comply (to the rules) at high
(international) standards and we should be afraid (of inspections, etc).
Reporter: The prior consultancy was the most controversial issue of the negotiations.
Does the government have a proposal to make?
AW: The working group to analyze this begins on October 25th. I know there’s a draft law
project with the Environment Ministry. The most difficult issue will be to identify where
prior consultancy would be applied and whether it is legally binding.
Reporter: What’s the time limit to present the Prior Consultancy law project?
AW: I don’t have a clear idea on how long it will take to approve, above all because it will
need to be debated by the National Congress.
Reporter: Without this clarity, how will the country attract mining investment?
AW: There’s interest (in Ecuador) from the largest mining companies in the world, such
as the Australian companies Newcrest and BHP. We are trying to give positive signals. If
an agreement isn’t reached on the Prior Consultancy law, the government will have to
find a Plan B.
Your author took time to translate the above as it’s a cut above the normal level of journalism
on mining in Ecuador and the reporter did a good job. We see the Vice-Minister avoiding
answers at several points, but even so we get the clear impression of the government’s view of
the recent talks and how the heads-up agreements from the working groups do not align with
those of the indigenous pressure groups (CONAIE et al), there are four issues left hanging:
 The style and substance of the upcoming “Prior Consultancy” legislation. On the indigenous
group’s side, they would want as much legal power of veto included in the legislation,
while the government would look for as much leeway as possible in order to (theoretically
at least) overrule any local decision at the national level.
 The timing of any eventual passage of a Prior Consultancy law. As noted by the Vice-
Minister in the interview, we’re still at the draft law stage and even if the law project gets
past the current negotiation tables and working groups, it would need to go through the
tortuous route of Ecuador’s National Assembly (Congress) via committees and eventual
debate before receiving an up/down vote. Predicting the timing on that is an exercise in
Bistromathics*, so the recent agreement by the Working Group negotiators of a
moratorium that is valid for a minimum of 12 months, or until there is a law of free and
informed prior consultancy that counts with the support of indigenous leaders, as we
reported in IKN695 dated September 11th, is not a small point. Ecuador is setting itself up
for an extended period of political uncertainty around mining and until these matters are
cleared up, it’s difficult to imagine large-scale FDI committing itself to the country.
 The real powers being handed to the Working Groups on mining. As noted in IKN700 last
weekend, observers of the agreements reached in the country have criticized the
government due to the way “CONAIE has achieved the formation of a “Technical
21

Evaluation Working Group” (mesa técnica de evaluación) with power of legal decision to
review environmental permits”, but in the above interview, Vice-Minister Andrés Wierdak
makes allusions to the Working Groups having a mere advisory role. This smacks of
governmental back-tracking and may be a source of annoyance going forward.
 The geographical locations in which mining exclusion zones will apply. Again, we have the
government wanting to interpret the agreement in one way that would only cover official
protected zones and mining concessions in all-but a small portion of rural Ecuador.
Meanwhile the indigenous groups would want what they consider “Traditional Territories”
to come under any no-mining zone.
*Pace Douglas Adams, a small quote from here (17):
“…Bistromathics is a way of understanding the behaviour of numbers. Just as Einstein observed that time was not an
absolute, but depended on the observer's movement through space, so it was realised that numbers are not absolute,
but depend on the observer's movement in restaurants.”
Colombia: On honeymoons and exchange rates
Amid well-sourced market chatter of Brazilian hedge funds jumping on the same Long
Real/Short Colombian Peso pair trade (18), the moves in the Colombian Peso (COP) have
started making headlines on the international
stage, something we last saw in a LatAm
currency when the Chilean Peso (CLP) back in
July. This time it’s the COP in the spotlight as
the currency weakened from around 4,600 to
the US Dollar (USD) to close the week at 4,918
vs USD and with plenty of market
commentators calling it at between 5,100 and
5,200 in the near future (19)
Along with the latest approval ratings for
President Gustavo Petro dropping this month to
46% after the last reading of 56% in August
(20), last week marks the end to his
presidency’s (always unofficial but always
expected) honeymoon period. It’s worthy remembering that Petro has plenty of enemies in
Colombia and that includes a lot of the people who own major media channels, so the critics
aren’t going to go unnoticed and they now have their moment.
As for the COP weakness, it’s attributed to a combo of “uncertainty”, the strength of the US
Dollar, worries about Petro’s foreign policy and the “negative atmosphere for investors”, but the
main thrust is that of his moves to tap the foreign debt market and raise funds for public sector
spending policies while at the same time, crimping the hydrocarbons and coal mining industries
which are a major source of foreign currency income for the country. That makes sense and the
net effect of borrowing more dollars while potentially limiting dollar income shows up in the
currency rates quickly. Add that to the general disdain that capital markets have for Left wing
governments and the Brazilian hedge funds pile on.
President Petro’s reaction so far has been at the philosophical level, such as the speech he
made at an event on Thursday at which he said (translated), “When we look to the long-term,
not the short term; today the media is looking to see whether we get to 5,000, they’re watching
every minute to publish the headline, but the economy (of a country) is measured in the long-
term.” We also had his Finance Minister Jose Antonio Ocampo saying on Tuesday that, “We’re
going to have responsible macroeconomic policy. We’re going to comply with the fiscal rule.
There won’t be any exchange controls. We expect this commitment to macroeconomic stability
to be recognized by the markets” and while his comments were designed to tell the world that
Colombia was being run by serious people, the “no exchange controls” comment would have
added fuel to the current run on the COP, rather than slow it down. However, it’s been widely
reported in Colombia that President Petro will move to intervene in some shape or form when
22

the COP breaches 5,000 and a look at the country’s International Reserves position (21)…
…shows that his Central Bank and FinMin has plenty of ammunition at hand (more than Chile,
for one example). Predictably, the “Colombia In Panic” “Colombia Set for Disaster” “Colombia
About to Implode” headlines have started to show up in English language commentaries on the
country, with plenty of emphasis on the Left wing government and its irresponsible policies.
That’s par for the course and while I’m not going to argue against the thrust of those
arguments, be clear that Colombia under Petro isn’t about to step away from its political
mandate at the first sign of economic headwinds. Petro may be lefty, but he’s also a highly
experienced politician and enough of an intellectual to take the brickbats and have a long-term
roadmap to work on, he’s not a Pedro Castillo of Peru who is improvising his way through the
weeks and days. So expect Colombia to make some sort of proactive move to protect its
currency when it busts over 5,000, also expect Colombia to continue to make headlines on the
international scene over policyb decisions that are deemed “bad for business” and will “deter
foreign investment. Indeed, on that very subject we now move to its mining scene.
Colombia: Decisions on mining coming soon
Colombian national media channel El Tiempo last week ran this interview with Minister of the
Environment and Sustainable Development, Susana Muhamad (22). Back in IKN699 dated
October 9th in the note “Colombia: Government anti-mining sentiment rising” we reported on
Minister Muhamad’s appearance at the Town Hall Meeting on social and environmental issues in
the city of Bucaramanga. At that meeting and among other matters anti-mining, the Minister
said (translated):
We are preparing administrative acts to make wide-ranging decisions regarding large-
scale mining and the strategic ecosystems of Colombia. Before the first 100 days of
this government are up, hope to expedite administrative acts concerning the court
sentence of August 4th to place environmental limits on large-scale mining.”
In last week’s interview she reiterated the message that they were looking to announce
decisions on mining when asked by the reporter about mining, early in the Q&A. Here’s a
transcript (translated):
Reporter: What’s coming (from the government) for mining? What are you working on
at the moment regarding the mining sector?
Susana Muhamad: “Well, we have a sentence from the Constitutional Court (Council of
State) which was handed down in August, right at the start of our government, which
instructs to undertake and ordering of territories, in which we designate with clarity how
to protect strategic ecosystems and to tell Environment Sector (i.e. Ministry) where we
can undertake mining activity and where we cannot do mining. And from there has
come a process and a series of strategic decisions that cover the next two years
approximately, according to the court judgement, some of those decisions are coming
to come out very soon, before we get to the first 100 days in office of this government.”
We are currently on day 79 of this new
government, which means we can expect some or
other announcement on the mining industry in the
next three weeks maximum-. We leave you with
the ten-day price chart of Aris Mining Corp
(ARIS.to) compared to GDX and GDXJ.
23

Brazil: Polling with a week to go puts Lula ahead
It depends on your pollster and there’s no doubt that Jair
Bolsonaro and his supporters will point to the way polls missed
badly and lowballed his support in round one, but with just one
week to go for the biggest election of them all down LatAm
way, all polling companies are calling Lula da Silva in the lead.
The question is by how much, because as this compendium of
major pollsters and their latest results shows (right, with link
here (23)) if IPEC/Globo is right, Lula will win in reasonably
comfortable style but if the Paraná Pesquisas poll is the most
accurate, its results lay inside the margin of error and Bolsonaro
could take it at the line. As for this desk’s call, ever since the
Round One result we’ve called Lula as favourite without being a
lock, that hasn’t changed. We also warn readers of the high
likelihood of a contested result if either of the candidates wins
by a small margin as Bolsonaro has not hidden is disdain for the
process and regularly makes accusations that the only way he
could lose is if the election is fixed, so Lula would likely use the
same narrative if pipped at the post. October 30th is the vote
and we should know the nominal winner that very evening, but
this election may not be over immediately and if so, Brazil might
be in for a rough and volatile period. We wait and we see.
Market Watching
Wesdome Gold Mines (WDO.to) and its attempted soft landing
There are certain stocks that are covered at The IKN Weekly that grow large and tend not to
return as active trades due to the focus of this
publication. Without searching for more names among
the lists, examples include B2Gold, Fortuna Silver and
First Majestic, producer PMs that grow and deliver, the
trades eventually getting away from the size we
prefer. One of those is Wesdome Gold Mines Ltd
(WDO.to) (WDOFF) (RKVA.f), subject of a successful
trade on these pages between roughly 2016 and
roughly 2020 when profit was taken and fond
farewells said. Sure enough WDO continued on its
development track and when its market cap breached
C$2.2Bn earlier this year, I didn’t expect to be
considering it as a deep value trade ever again. But
never say never they say, and just six months on in a
difficult 2022 for WDO, the stock is back at a market
cap of C$1.14Bn, or U$839m at today’s forex, just
about low enough for consideration on these pages.
Its lower entry point of C$8.01 this weekend is due to
the difficult conditions for the entire PM sector, of
course. But WDO has had its own issues and between
the macro and the micro, its stock price is down over
50% since its high point of March and early April.
This isn’t an in-depth anal ysis on the company this
weekend (feel free to mail me if you’d like to petition
for more on WDO), rather it’s more of a heads-up on
what I believe may be a good opportunity to position in WDO at what may turn out to be the
24

last time it offers an extended and cheap entry point. WDO is going through three issues:
1) The world macro backdrop has been difficult for mining companies. We know that, but
WDO hasn’t been immune to the pincer-like combination of lower gold prices and the
inflationary pulse that’s run through the sector.
2) The Kiena ramp-up and commissioning into commercial production has hit headwinds in
2022. The company took its time to get to
the start of mining operations in 2021, but
expected more from operations in its pre-
commercial period before reaching formal
commercial production. This chart (right)
is lifted from one of its corporate
presentations and outlines how they
forecast around 60k production for 2022,
and as we’ll see below, 2022 isn’t getting
close to that. The main problem has been
supply procurement at a critical moment,
with knock-on issues from Covid causing
bottlenecks that have made the normal teething issues at any new operation into
annoying stoppages and larger holes in the projected production
3) Its main Eagle River has also had production issues. This mine has also seen the Coivd
knock-on cause headwinds, but Eagle River has also suffered internal operational issues
as well as a temporary negative grade reconciliation from UG workings (e.g. the new
faces at the Falcon zone) that have combined to hit overall production at a bad time.
The three problems have combined and put some pressure on WDO financials, as we’ll see in a
moment. But first we put some flesh on
those production comments and first this
long-term chart of quarterly production and
sales at WDO (right). The incremental
growth over the long-term is obvious to the
eye, but another reason to consider this
long-view chart is the production spike seen
in the 4q21 quarter, one year. That quarter
saw WDO produce 41,559oz gold and sell
37,544 oz gold as Kiena came to life, so it’s
interesting to compare that to the three
quarters so far in 2022. This chart below
focuses on the last ten quarters of
production (plus a preliminary estimate for 4q22) and shows the breakdown between its three
working mines, with Eagle River UG delivering the lion’s share, then the Mishi open pit (also
processed through the Eagle River mill) contributing minor amounts and then, since 3q21, the
arrival of Kiena pre-commercial production.
WDO: Gold prod/qtr
25
71142 91391 76691 69312
63892
12632 76242 43391 65771 50471
00082
45000
40000
16000 35000
16929
30000
25000 5511
5112 8914
20000 5208
15000
10000
5000
0
02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3 tse22q4
WDO: Gold production vs sales, per qtr
45000
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
Ozt Au
Kiena
Mishi
Eagle River
|
source: WDO filings
It’s worth recalling that at the start of 2022, WDO guided consolidated gold production at
between 160k and 180k oz, that’s to say at least 40k oz gold per quarter on average. Instead
we have these results:
41q3 41q4 51q1 51q2 51q3 51q4 61q1 61q2 61q3 61q4 71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3
Ozt Au
Production
Sales
source: company filings

 1q22: 25,611 oz Au produced
 2q22: 27,240 oz Au produced
 3q22: 22,883 oz Au produced
That’s a total of 75,734oz gold produced in the first three quarters of this year and as a result,
WDO cut its guidance to between 120k oz and 140k oz when reporting its 2q22 financials (24).
While when announcing its 3q22 production numbers on October 13th (25) WDO reiterated that
guidance, though made it clear it was “…currently tracking to produce towards the lower end of
the 120,000 – 140,000 combined guidance range this year.” This brings up the estimates as
seen in the above chart for 4q22 production because, if WDO is going to make that lower end
120k oz for 2022, it needs to deliver 44,266 oz this quarter and the above is our best guess on
how it can get there. After the delays in getting Kiena to commercial production levels, at first
sight those Q4 estimates look overly ambitious (and frankly, they may be), it looks like a tough
call at first but WDO is confident of declaring
commercial production at Kiena toward the
end of the current quarter and we also know
that Eagle River is a flexible and giving
operation; if the company decides to mine
some of its higher grading material and the
mill runs well they can deliver themselves a bumper quarter. At Kiena, commissioning
has been slower than expected and its
glitches and supply issues have slowed down
tonnage throughput. This chart shows what
the mine is capable of running and the way
problems have stymied processing, with
things getting particularly bad in the last quarter. However, as long as WDO can deliver on its
latest promise and get things fully going by the end of this year, Kiena can move into 2023 as a
different operation and put 2022 behind it.
So much for the production, we move to a few outline thoughts on the company’s financial
position and it won’t be a surprise to learn that after a year in which 1) production hasn’t lived
up to expectations 2) the gold price has gone South 3) inflation has raised input costs and 4)
WDO has been busy spending its final rounds of capex on Kiena, corporate liquidity has come
under pressure. This explains why on August 31st the company upsized its revolving credit
facility (26) with National Bank, giving it an C$80m immediate line and C$150m on declaration
of commercial production. This operations overview chart…
WDO.to: Operations overview chart
26
479.41
247.91 753.52 426.22
236.21 800.31
315.58
219.72 522.82
385.51
975.1
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2
WDO: Tonnes milled, per qtr
C$m
revenues
total op expenses
Op earnings
source: company filings, IKN calcs
…shows filed results since 4q19 and the columns to quickscan are the green(ish) ones for
operating earnings. Aside the artificial result for 2q21 when the Kiena asset was re-incorporated
into the balance sheet and caused the GAAP numbers to bend out of shape WDO was a regular
profit-maker on its Eagle River operations and as from 3q21, the addition of mine gate profits
from Kiena as it re-started and got out the cheap ounces. But as from 1q22 the combo of
production glitches and rising costs saw margins crimped, with the 2q22 operating margin down
to a mere C$1.579m. Below we focus on the last four reported quarter, plus our estimates…
75232
47855 94324 76644 15535 04535 75036
07403
30065
00083
95165
26112
71235
87462
46995
21161
74225
110000
100000
90000
80000
70000
60000
50000
40000 30000
20000
10000
0
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 22q3
mt
Kiena
Mishi
Eagle River
source: company filings

WDO.to: Operations overview chart
27
219.72 522.82
385.51
975.1
8.0
22
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
C$m
revenues
total op expenses
Op earnings
source: company filings, IKN calcs
…for the next two quarters. We’re close to knowing the 3q22 financial results, as WDO is set to
report on November 9th and we’ll find out how close my model’s “give or take breakeven”
operating result is to reality. That means the company is going to see its net cash position drop
even further as it puts the finishing touches to the Kiena build-out and pays the last of the
capex, but assuming (and it’s something of a assumption) WDO manages to produce (and sell)
the ounces it requires to get to the bottom end of the revised 120k-140k guidance, revenues
are set to spike to C$90m and that would set the scene for the type of result we’d get on a
more regular basis, 2023 and onward. Again, assuming WDO starts running on rails again. Just
that financial result would take the pressure off a slightly crimped balance sheet and according
to our model, would provide all the springboard it needs to move back up to the prices seen
early this year.
To get a rough handle on how that works, we check out a couple of balance sheet items,
starting with the overview assets and liabilities charts:
WDO.to: Assets
600
550 500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
To the left in the assets chart, we see how the incorporation of the Kiena asset in 2q21
changed its book and we see its carry cost affect liabilities, too. But the salient point of liabilities
is how we expect WDO to lean on its newly expanded revolving credit facility as from this
quarter, to get it through a likely temporarily lean cash period. That also shows here:
Cash treasury (left) is harder to guesstimate than working capital (right) because the company
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
$m 220 WDO.to: Liabilities Breakdown per qtr
200
fixed 180 other current
160 cash
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
source: WDO.to filings
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
long term
current
80 WDO.to: Working Capital per qtr
70
60
50
40
30 20 10
0
-10
-20
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
source company filings
srallod
fo snoillim
WDO.to: Cash treasury per qtr
756.53
893.94 337.66 315.37 84.36 488.36 997.76 374.96 467.65 274.25
615.32
02 82
80
70
60
50
40 30
20
10
0
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
source: company filings
DAC
fo snoillim

may draw to a greater or lesser extent on the revolver, but we expect working cap to go further
negative than the C$4.535m as filed for 2q22. Our model puts working cap down to $-17m in
3q22 and while the presumed gross revenues (below) from presumed higher production and
sales would provide a boost to the company and signal a better year to come, we may not see
an immediate return to positive working capital
before 2023.
The bottom line: WDO’s drop to its new default re-
set price of C$8.00 is disappointing, but the recent operational problems at a time when they needed
the cash to finish (the delayed) Kiena has caused
balance sheet weakness and its drop is justified by
the current financial position. However and as
alluded in today’s title line, with the world
watching the US Federal Reserve and wondering
whether it will be able to pull off a “soft landing”
for the U.S. economy (and therefore the rest of
us, too), it occurred to this desk that over at
WDO, CEO Duncan Middlemiss is attempting a small soft landing of his own. As long as 1)
Kiena goes commercial on time by the end of this quarter 2) 4q22 production picks up to the
number required to reach (or at least approach) the revised 2022 guidance and 3) the company
can guide to the type of 160k to 180k
gold it expected for next year, it should WDO.to: Shares Out
get over the current tight financial
moment and the timing of that revolver
means they won’t face any sort of near-
term liquidity crunch. WDO has been
keen on keeping its share count tight
and it’s hardly changed over the last five
years (check out this impressive chart,
right), so the revolving credit facility
means CEO Middlemiss will be able to
keep that in shape and there’s no need
to dilute. The likelihood is that WDO’s 3q22 financial report will fail to impress the market, as
all-but breakeven operations and increased financial debt don’t make for great headlines. We
should also watch out for confirmation (or otherwise) on whether WDO will be able to make its
lower end 2022 guidance, because if they’re still on track that 120k number would mean 4q22
would be a big improvement on anything seen in the last three quarters.
However, the real reason to consider WDO going forward is 2023 and as long as 1) Eagle River
gets back to normal and 2) Kiena goes commercial on time, the quarters we’ll see next year
should see free cash flow return and with Kiena all-but paid for, WDO should be able to repair
its weak balance sheet very quickly. So all in all, the upcoming 3q22 numbers mean there’s no
big rush to own the stock but for those willing to assume the company’s 2022 travails were a
temporary glitch rather than a new trend, the current $8-or-abouts price level could turn out to
be a serious bargain a year from now, as long as CEO Middlemiss can get the company over the
current hump and produce a financial soft landing.
Conclusion
IKN701 is done, we end with bullet points:
 It’s time to stick the head above the parapet and buy a couple of speculative positions.
Not big and with a trader’s mentality, rather than buy’n’hold, but the most recent macro
indications suggest we may be ready, either for a Fed that pivots or for a market that
assumes a Fed pivot for enough time to make a trade into a winner.
28
75.231 68.331 98.331 98.331 12.431 13.431 57.431 20.531 3.631 97.631 22.731 99.731 54.831 54.831 80.931 13.931 76.931 30.041 88.041 36.141 24.241 94.241
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2
source: company filings/IKN ests
serahs
fo
snoillim
WDO.to: Revenues
2.34 3.75 8.45 0.55 4.84 0.64 9.36 5.76
5.58
7.66 9.16 8.16
0.09
100
90
80 70 60
50
40
30
20
10
0
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
CAD$m
source: company filings

 Colombia and Ecuador are untouchable as hard rock mining jurisdictions. People with a
vested interest in the country’s mining sectors will tell you otherwise.
 I honestly thought I’d never write on Wesdome on these pages again, but its price
slump and the current market circumstances have offered up that unexpected window.
With Kiena on the cusp, all it needs to do is get over the next two financial quarters
and return operations to normal service to shoot its price too high for consideration by
The IKN Weekly again.
 A final reminder that next week’s issue will be somewhat abridged, as I have non-
mining things to do on a weekend. For a change.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stock is Minera Alamos (MAI.v). Flash
updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best wishes, Mark
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y
(2) https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-set-to-raise-rates-by-0-75-point-and-debate-size-of-future-hikes-11666356757
(3) https://www.bbc.com/news/business-63319010
(4) https://www.reuters.com/technology/twitters-workforce-likely-be-hit-with-massive-cuts-coming-months-report-2022-
10-20/
(5) https://newcoregold.com/site/assets/files/5557/newcore-gold-corporate-presentation.pdf
(6) https://goldshoreresources.com/presentation/
(7) https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/freeport-mcmoran-profit-more-than-halves-weak-copper-prices-2022-
10-20/
(8) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-31/freeport-ceo-says-copper-tightness-is-far-beyond-a-price-
issue#xj4y7vzkg
(9) https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/a-great-copper-squeeze-is-coming-for-the-global-economy-1.1821990
(10) https://stockhead.com.au/resources/ground-breakers-keep-faith-in-copper-say-miners-as-price-volatility-bites/
(11) https://www.ft.com/content/80fdd315-2db4-46fa-a76e-6d3d4eff83e5
(12) https://www.dorecopper.com/en/news-releases/dore-copper-announces-closing-of-c5-75-million-private-placement-
of-common-shares-and-flow-through-shares-including-full-exercise-of-agents-option/
(13) https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/coast-copper-closes-3-million-red-chris-properties-sale-869916854.html
(14) https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/gold-fields-provides-update-on-proposed-yamana-gold-acquisition-
301656415.html
(15) https://www.miningmx.com/top-story/51166-three-gold-fields-execs-announce-plans-to-quit-firm-ahead-of-critical-
yamana-merger-vote/
(16) https://www.primicias.ec/noticias/economia/catastro-minero-dialogo-indigenas/
(17) https://hitchhikers.fandom.com/wiki/Bistromathics
(18)
https://m.netdania.com/news/Shorting%20Colombia%E2%80%99s%20Peso%20Is%20a%20Top%20Trade%20at%20B
razilian%20Hedge%20Funds/Bloomberg%20Finance/%7Bhf%3A0%2C%20na%3A[%7Bs%3A[%22Bloomberg%22]%2
Ct%3A[%22finance%22]%2Ctg%3A[%22frx%22%2C%22frxtop%22%2C%22ecb%22%2C%22forex%22]%2C%20l%3A
%22en%22%7D]%7D/celltick_news/83d5c273-7c76-7632-5844-
96059a333e76_en%40%7B%22Syms%22%3A[]%2C%22Inf%22%3A%7B%22PBL%22%3A%22Bloomberg%22%7D%
7D/1666362492
29

(19) https://www.semana.com/economia/macroeconomia/articulo/dolar-en-colombia-volvio-a-dispararse-y-supera-
nuevamente-los-4900-a-donde-ira-a-parar/202255/
(20) https://news.yahoo.com/colombian-president-petro-approval-rating-221544435.html
(21) https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/estadisticas/reservas-internacionales-del-banco-republica
(22) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=awwggQ0AmfE
(23) https://www.poder360.com.br/pesquisas/a-8-dias-do-2o-turno-vantagem-de-lula-varia-de-26-a-8-pontos/
(24) https://www.wesdome.com/English/investors/latest-news/news-details/2022/Wesdome-Announces-2022-Second-
Quarter-Financial-Results/default.aspx
(25) https://www.wesdome.com/English/investors/latest-news/news-details/2022/Wesdome-Announces-2022-Third-
Quarter-Production-Results/default.aspx
(26) https://www.wesdome.com/English/investors/latest-news/news-details/2022/Wesdome-Announces-Amendment-to-
Increase-and-Extend-Credit-Facility/default.aspx
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Set-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
30

Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Jan-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Jan-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Sep-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Aug-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Apr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Sep-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Apr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Sep-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
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Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-aug-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-jan-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-apr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-apr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-jan-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-jan-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-apr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-apr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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