6 The IKN Weekly, issue 695 — Sep 12, 2022
The IKN Weekly
Week 695 September 11th 2022
Contents
This Week: In Today’s Edition, 911, Conference Season, The US Dollar and matters of lesser
importance to gold (e.g. the gold price).
Fundamental Analysis: ATAC Resources (ATC.v): New ideas for old stories.
Stocks to Follow: Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v), Minera Alamos (MAI.v), Western Copper & Gold
(WRN.to), Amerigo Resources (ARG.to), Newcore Gold (NCAU.v), Goldshore Resources
(GSHR.v), Anacortes Mining (XYZ.v), Aldebaran Resources (ALDE.v), Altiplano Metals (APN.v).
Copper Basket: Overview, Hot Chili (HCH.v) (HCH.ax), Marimaca Copper Corp (MARI.to).
Producer Basket: Overview, B2Gold (BTG) and Newmont (NEM).
TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Infield Minerals (INFD.v), Manitou Gold (MTU.v).
Regional Politics: Chile: The new cabinet, Chile: Insight into environmental permitting under
the new Boric government, Peru: The political impasse, Ecuador: A small victory in negotiations,
Colombia: In-country reaction to Mining Minister Irene Vélez, A mail exchange on Colombia Oil
& Gas, Argentina’s new Energy Secretary reaffirms commitment to mining.
Market Watching: Bluestone Resources (BSR.v) and a mining referendum.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
In Today’s Edition
It’s not a stock I’m buying this week, not formal recommendation, not even a normal
fundamentals analysis. Instead, this week’s main Fundies section is a strategy note on
the potential growing in the old-toothed ATAC Resources (ATC.v) as a deep value, low
risk rebound play if and when the deep Yukon region opens up to modern mining
development.
Despite the continued lacklustre returns, I can’t help but see the positive side to most
of the stocks currently followed and the notes reads accordingly. It would only take a
confirmed rebound in metals to see a lot of these stocks go higher quickly.
The Regional Politics section continues its focus on the two Hot Button LatAm
jurisdictions, Chile and Colombia. Of the two, Chile is by far the better place to be
despite the noise surrounding it.
Last week’s action in metals and the larger mining stoscks gives some reason to be
cheerful, but ultimately it’s all about The US Dollar as gold’s move are not at its own
behest, no matter what hardcore goldbugs might say or think.
911
I consider it a duty, as a citizen of a free democracy and one who abhors and rejects all hatred
and division based on race, religion, creed or nationality, to recall and hold clear the memory of
that fateful day in 2001. It is also my duty and that of humans around the world to grow and
take lessons from our mistakes, however great or small they might be. We are not condemned
to repeat history if we learn from it. In the words of Queen Elizabeth II, grief is the price we
pay for love.
1
Conference Season
The mining scene goes into Workers’ Playtime mode as from this week, with the two traditional
conference dates for the precious metals industry upon us. First up is the “2022 Precious Metals
Summit Beaver Creek” (1) which runs from this Tuesday 13th to Friday 16th in a beautiful and
tranquil corner of Denver Co USA. This is the show for smaller companies in the PM sector (as
well as a smattering of base metals plays) such as explorecos, developers and small/medium
producer companies. Use the link to go and check out what to expect and to mark your cards,
the most useful page is the agenda which offers links to all the 20 minute presentations over
the four days (in two rooms…they pack them in). These presentations tend to be “showtime
only” with no Q&A and a way of checking out the overview story of a bunch of companies in
one place, rather than an opportunity to do deeper DD. There are also a few round table
discussions and forums on the schedule, but the main reason for Beaver Creek’s annual
popularity is the “convivial atmosphere” at which friends and like-minded mining people and
their hangers-on get to meet up and a have a good time, which is why I’m not there.
On the heels of Beaver Creek and starting next Sunday September 18th is the Denver Gold
Group’s four day “34th Gold Forum Americas”, the bigger and more serious show which (and I
quote) “…showcases seven-eighths of the world's publicly traded gold and silver companies
when measured by production or reserves.” Here’s the agenda page for that one (2), which
again features plenty of company presentations over the main three days (Mon-Weds) in three
halls from companies large and small (from NEM and GOLD right down to the MAI.v’s, even a
few explorecos in there) as well as headline keynote speeches from the big guns such as
Palmer, Bristow, Friedland and the usual cast of characters. You may recall that last year’s
event got plenty of “Silver Metal Of The Future” coverage as the posited demand hike for the
green world of our future was pumped hard…by silver producers. Here’s the 12 month chart of
SLV along with a selection of the larger silver companies that presented at Denver in 2021 and
will present again this year and…
…I fully expect to hear the same message about gold’s lesser sibling from the same people,
speaking to the same audience and getting largely the same reaction. Sic transit gloria mundi.
The US Dollar and matters of lesser importance to gold (e.g. the gold price)
Before getting to the chart that matters, a brief update on the state of the US Treasurys yield
inversion (3). After bottoming out at negative 0.48% on August 9th, the inversion has been
heading in the right direction for a month and
while there was a slight drop last week (from -
0.19% to -0.23%, as seen on the chart, right)
the trend has been friendly for the US
economy’s cause. As for the gold bullion
market, we dial up our usual suspect tracking
charts to discover that GLD holdings dropped
another 6.44 metric tonnes (mt) on the week
to close at 966.64mt, another new low in the
2
Biden presidency era, despite gold managing to put on a week-over-week price improvement of
0.35% (GLD proxy). That combo means sentiment in the space remains firmly in the dumpster,
as gauged by out Inventory/Price ratio that is now at 6.05x still at the “washout” line.
GLD gold holdings, 2021 to date (metric tonnes)
1200
1180
1160
1140
1120
1100
1080
1060
1040
1020
1000
980
960
940
920
900
That’s the starter course out the way, now for the main course:
The place to look to track the effects of the Fed jawbone is right here on the DXY chart, as the
US Dollar hardly batted an eyelid when first the Fed Veep and then Jay Powell at The Cato
Institute last week repeated their “We’re going to be nasty on rates and we’re not joking” line.
Instead of Goldilocks, the current children’s tale in financial fashion seems to be The Boy Who
Cried Wolf because the market managed to brush off concerns of a 0.75% raise at the end of
the month and put the index in reverse over the last part of last week, DXY dropping two pips
to 109 and allowing equities to rally, as seen by the SPX (blue line) mapped onto the chart. And
due to the way the USD and its strength is at the centre of all trades at the moment, we’re in
one of those unusual periods when gold price correlate with equities and bullion matched the
course of the SPX squiggly line as well.
As for the future of the USD, people as noteworthy as Larry Summers think its run isn’t over yet
and he made a good point when appearing on Bloomie lasty week (4). Summers is now back in
fashion, ever since he out-predicted the Fed and the majority of econowatchers with his
accurate call on “transitory” inflation and he hasn’t been backward about coming forward to
address the new attention, either. He’s been out on the airwaves predicting a spike in
unemployment that will stem from the Fed’s sharp hiking, he was also apparently one of the
background architects that got the Shumer/Manchin Energy and Climate Bill to happen, by
convincing Joe Manchin that the proposals weren’t as inflationary as he thought. His latest
thought on the macro is that “The United States has a huge advantage” that comes from its
energy independence and that can only strengthen the dollar:
3
02/21/13 12/1/02 12/2/9 12/3/1 12/3/12 12/4/01 12/4/03 12/5/02 12/6/9 12/6/92 12/7/91 12/8/8 12/8/82 12/9/71 12/01/7 12/01/72 12/11/61 12/21/6 12/21/62 22/1/51 22/2/4 22/2/42 22/3/61 22/4/5 22/4/52 22/5/51 22/6/4 22/6/42 22/7/41 22/8/3 22/8/32
GLD: Inventory/Price Ratio, 2021 to date
mt 7.00
6.80
6.60
6.40
6.20
6.00
5.80
5.60
5.40 source: SPDR GLD data
13/21/0202 02/1/1202 9/2/1202 1/3/1202 12/3/1202 01/4/1202 03/4/1202 02/5/1202 9/6/1202 92/6/1202 91/7/1202 8/8/1202 82/8/1202 71/9/1202 7/01/1202 72/01/1202 61/11/1202 6/21/1202 62/21/1202 51/1/2202 4/2/2202 42/2/2202 61/3/2202 5/4/2202 52/4/2202 51/5/2202 4/6/2202 42/6/2202 41/7/2202 3/8/2202 32/8/2202
Source: SPDR data, IKN calcs
Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said that the dollar has further scope
for appreciation given an array of fundamentals behind it, and expressed skepticism
about the effectiveness of any Japanese intervention to turn the tide for the yen.
“It’s remarkable that people were saying the dollar’s day was past not very long ago
given its current strength,” Summers told Bloomberg Television’s “Wall Street Week”
with David Westin. “My guess is that there’s room for this to continue.”
Summers highlighted that the US has a “huge advantage” in not being dependent on
“egregiously expensive foreign energy.” Washington also mounted a stronger
macroeconomic response to the pandemic, and the Federal Reserve is now moving
faster to tighten monetary policy than its peers, he also noted.
“All of those various factors are making us a safe haven, a mecca for capital -- and
that’s causing resources to flow into the dollar,” said Summers, a Harvard University
professor and paid contributor to Bloomberg Television.
He may have a point. What’s more, since when is having a strengthening currency a
disadvantage in difficult economic times? While the eventual balance of payments issues and
exports problems can crimp GDP, a stronger currency gives policymakers more cards to play
with and a “stronger toolbox”, to use the vernacular. But in the meantime, USD strength can
only aid Jay Powell as he looks for that so-called soft landing and ultimately, that may be the
reason behind last week’s equity rally.
To underscore the point with a final visual in this week’s intro, after ”Catching up with the
Gold/Silver Ratio” after a long hiatus last weekend in IKN694, it’s only fair to note via this 12
month chart of the same ratio that the GSR
managed to back off from its 96X reading and
finished this week at 92.11X. By the same token,
there’s no need for me to draw in a trend line as
the 50dma line is enough to see that the upward
trend is not broken. So while it takes more than a
week for the market to assume the Goldilocks Soft
Landing is in the cards, the metals market also
signalled that The USA could avoid the recession
that the bonds market indicates.
Bottom line: The abridged and incomplete macro
focus that shows up in IKN intros isn’t trying to add
to the grand debate among the high falutin’
economists about what to expect from the US and
world economies. We’re not even here trying to
predict the price of gold, in fact: what we require is
a handle on the mining stocks and whether they
can move out of their current bearish, dismal sentiment. So yes, while things do look somewhat
better for the gold and precious metals space this weekend than they did last weekend, there’s
no decisions being made and no reason to think the juniors market just turned the corner, let’s
take one week’s worth of data with the pinch of salt they require. A better week, but the jury is
still out and for our next major cue on macro, we look to Tuesday September 13th pre-bell and
the US CPI reading . Once those numbers run their effects on gold and copper, we’ll have
another piece of the puzzle.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
ATAC Resources (ATC.v): New ideas for old stories
Though it’s still very early and I stress that I’m not making any moves with the treasury dry
powder yet, I must admit that last week showed a few green shoots in the gold space. With
that in mind, today’s main fundies section features a company that I’ve been considering as a
potential trade for a few weeks and rather than keep it to myself, I’ve decided to throw the idea
4
out into the open and see what happens. I would like to make it clear that I am not a buyer
ATAC Resources ATC.v) yet, not on this note and not until I make a clear “I’m buying” call
to you, the esteemed readership of The IKN Weekly (which is why that bit is in block capand
and underlined) but it’s also fair to say that this note wouldn’t exist if I weren’t interested in the
trade potential offered by the stock.
Why buy in a bear market?
In this bearish and difficult market, valuations of the vast majority of mining companies have
been beaten down to true bargain levels and some even further than that, to the levels I
privately refer to as “crazycheap”. At times like these all boats tend to drop on the same low
tide, but those investors with a longer-view of the market and the patience to buy while
sentiment is in the dumpster know that big wins are possible as the sector will eventually find
the next bull market. The tough question is always “when”, as the bottom is impossible to call
accurately and even if prices do bottom out, there’s no guarantee that they spring back up at
the same rhythm that they dropped. But alongside the toughest question comes another issue,
“Which stock to buy?” as they may all drop in line, but in the eventual upcycle some companies
rebound faster than others.
For my money (literally), this current bear market offers bargains everywhere but particularly in
stocks that can cover most or all of the following criteria:
Cheap, beaten-down share price
A meaningfully sized and reasonably defined gold deposit
Location, Location, Location
A ticker that does volume
The first requirement is taken as read. The second means I’m looking for gold over other
metals, no silver, zinc, platinum, lead or tantalum thank you very much. Yes copper is probably
the exception but the issue there is finding a copper exploreco with a share price that’s been
beaten down to pennies as they tend to retain a better residual equity. Then you want the best
geographical location, as an exploreco in a safe jurisdiction will always get more fans than one
in the high political risk zones, especially in the first throes of a sector rebound. Finally, it may
be a prosaic matter but picking a stock that you can easily trade (both in and out) is a useful
trait as well, it allows you both the width to make a difference with your trade and the
opportunity to get out with less damage done if things go wrong (and what could possibly go
wrong?). For these reasons, The IKN Weekly is already tracking stocks such as Newcore Gold
(NCAU.v) and Goldshore Resources (GSHR.v) and while others on the Stocks to Follow list such
as Anacortes (XYZ.v), Altiplano (APN.v) and Palamina Corp (PA.v) may not cover all the criteria,
they’re still small and beaten up enough to watch carefully for a reversal and trade opportunity.
Today’s main Fundies note is less a full analysis and more an extended thinkpiece, but its end is
the same and as from next weekend, ATAC Resources (ATC.v) joins the Watchlist of Potential
Trades on our current Stocks ton Follow list. Here’s why:
A potted history of ATAC Resources (ATC.v)
In order to understand why this company is cheap, we need to cover
its corporate history to some extent. However, this stock and
company is a case of “how long is a piece of string?” and even
though I’d like to be brief, a few paragraphs are required to get the
framing correct (and even then we’re glossing over many interesting
details). The family behind ATAC has been prospecting Canada and
the Canadian Yukon for over half a century (or longer, if memory
serves they were staking in the 1960s) and while we’re not going to
run a blow-by-blow on all that timeline, it accounts for the amount of
acreage in its company asset portfolio. This map (right) is from its
latest corporate presentation (5) and shows the company has one
property (PIL) in the North of BC Canada, with the others in Canada’s
Yukon Territories. We also see how the company pushes forward its
5
main Rackla Gold Property as flagship and while the other projects are also of merit (and give
extra reasons to consider the deep value on offer in this stock at this price), we’re going to
focus there.
It’s not easy to call ATC’s Rackla a single project. The 100% owned, long and thin concession
area runs for 185km, covers a massive 1,700km2 and indeed, these days the company also
splits the property up into two separate projects, namely “Rau” and “Nadaleen”. This map from
the company website gives the general layout, with some of the biggest and more important
resource zones, targets and assay results. I’ve also done some scribbling on the map to save
using another map while explaining a key part of its recent history, we’ll get to that in a second.
First we dial up a long-term price chart of ATC to address one of the main elephants in the
room; this stock was subject to an enormous promo pump a decade ago.
Starting in 2010 and with peak frenzy in 2011, ATC at what is now known as Rackla became
red hot property thanks to the discovery of high grade wide intercepts that were interpreted at
the time as “Carlin-Type”, after the famous and highly profitable gold mineralization zone in
Nevada, which these days is centred on the Barrick/Newmont “Nevada Gold Mines” JV. Back in
the frenzy days for ATC, the geological world believed it had found the first Carlin-type deposit
in Canada and dreams were about a deposit that would run into the tens of millions of ounces
of gold at high grades and a mine that could challenge to longevity of the Goldstrike mine.
It doesn’t need a long narrative to realize that those hopes were eventually dashed, all you
need to do is look at the price chart. However and despite the over-hyped peak of ATC, the
phrase “Carlin-type” was used while talking ATAC Resources and Rackla for many years after
the peak and much geological ink has been spilled on research and explanation of the true
manner of the deposit. The debates, research and arguments go on until this very day in fact
6
and while the mineralization certainly displays many of the characteristics of the Carlin Trend
NV USA, it’s been harder to find the massive deposit that should have come along with it. This
isn’t a subject for today and I’m bound to be shot down by geologists reading these lines, but
my two cents are that Rackla and particularly the Eastern Nadaleen end are indeed hosting
Carlin-type rocks, but the steeply dipping sedimentary units may have caused a change in the
way it attracted and/or retained the all important gold ounces, as water and hydrology seems
to have played a key role in the concentration of gold in the Nevada rocks, something Rackla
couldn’t bank on. As a result, the rocks collected some but not all the ounces that theory
desired of it and the initial wild optimism has been tempered by time and knowledge.
Despite the pop and drop in the 2010-2012 period, the geology world was still highly interested
in Rackla for many years and to that end, ATC went into JV with Barrick (no less) in the central
zone of the property, as sketched in by my hand above. This area was named “Orion”,
straddled Rau and Nadaleen and gave Barrick every opportunity to explore and generate the
targets promised by the known rocks. That JV continued through to 2018 and all that time, ATC
would garner trade media support and interest for the exploration work (just Google “ATAC”
and “Carlin” if you want to read a lot of mining journalism over an extended period). However
and after ABX had ploughed over $10m into its end of the JV, the deal came to an abrupt end
in late 2018 when Rackla became “Bristow’s First Victim” (the title line of a post on the IKN Blog
dated December 2018 (6). Mark Bristow had just arrived at Barrick as its new CEO via the
merger with Randgold and part of his new
broom act was to cull projects that didn’t pass
his “Tier 1” (minimum 5m oz and 15% IRR at
U$1k/oz gold) or “Tier 2” (3m to 5m oz gold
and 20% IRR at U$1k/oz) criteria. The ATC
share price had been in decline since Bristow
arrived at Barrick in September 2018 and the
writing was on the wall, but the news still hit
the stock had and dumped it from 34c to 21c
that day (see right). Since then ATC has
scurried around a little and got a decent boost
from the post-Covid lockdown rally, but overall
it’s been a case of inertia and eventual
decadence. The five year chart (right) is a good
visual on the way the stock has fallen off most radars and out of the sector limelight.
That’s not so surprising, as once the target didn’t make Barrick’s cut,
direct comparisons to Goldstrike or any other deposit on the real Carlin
Trend faded away. The issue is as much one of logistics as it is of
tonnage, grade and ultimate number of ounces, as these next visuals
taken from the recent 43-101 Technical Report filed by ATC on the main
Osiris project at Rackla should demonstrate. Here right is a map of the
Yukon Territories with Osiris marked and even in a province known for
its remoteness, lack of population and sparse infrastructure, it’s a long
way from anywhere else. Below an inset from the same map:
7
To quote the Technical Report and Estimate of Mineral Resources for the Osiris Project, Yukon,
Canada compiled by MDA and with an effective date of June 7th 2022, “The Property lies
170km northeast of Mayo (Figure 4-1), the nearest supply centre. The closest road access is to
the community of Keno City, situated 49km by road north-northeast of Mayo.”
In other words, access is neither easy nor cheap. At present its light aircraft to the airstrip some
8km South of Osiris (the length of the Rackla project has other landing strips) then trail
transport, while exploration and drilling programs are helicopter-dependent. All that means the
target has to justify itself as large just to keep momentum, while any eventual mine plan would
need just the type of ten-million-plus target that got the world interested in Rackla ten years
ago and kept Barrick interested until Bristow pulled that plug. Exploration is one thing, building
and operating a mine is quite another and without a large enough prize, the world won’t be
interesting in building the infrastructure necessary to open up the zone for full development and
that’s a long-winded way of saying something this audience understands full well:
No road = No mine
Barrick may have pulled out because the Carlin-Type theory wasn’t panning out as quickly or as
efficiently as it first hoped, but be clear it would have stayed in if Rackla was already up to 10m
oz and with room for plenty more. In that case, access studies would already be underway and
the stock price of ATC would now be rising or falling as the economic, environmental and social
trade-offs of driving an all-year roadway into the zone (from Keno Hill?) were debated with
stakeholders. However and as that Spanish phrase goes “the reality is other” and in fact, Rackla
has given lesser results to date. There’s a small sub-0.5m resource with a PEA to the West in
the Rau zone of Rackla, plus of course plenty of good drill assays from a whole bunch of targets
along the length of the concession that all deserve follow-up work. However, the main effort
has been at the Osiris deposit to the East, the zone that got everyone talking Carlin-Type in the
first place. In 2018 and before ABX pulled out, there was a 43-101 compliant inferred resource
of 1.685m but as per the recent 43-101, that’s now a little more:
These two tables sum up the new resource under four categories. Osiris has open pit and
underground resources, which as from the latest report are in turn split up into indicated and
inferred categories (with the open pit cut off set at 1.0 g/t Au and underground 2.0 g/t Au).
Here’s the breakdown cut and sliced another way:
Indicated Open Pit: 604k oz
Inferred Open Pit: 530k oz
Open Pit Subtotal: 1.134m oz Au
Indicated Underground: 128.1k oz
Inferred Underground: 514k oz
Underground Subtotal: 642.1k oz Au
Total Resource: 1.776m oz Au
That final Total Resource line is something we’re allowed to do in an analysis but the company
cannot, because according to CIMM, indicated and inferred don’t mix. The total gold in all
categories and types improved the Inferred-Only resource dated 2018 by just under 100k oz.
8
That’s not much change, but getting 732k of those ounces into the indicated category at the
same time was a good achievement and worth the effort. However, even if Osiris had added
50% to the resource in one fell swoop it would still be far from the tipping point where the
deposit could be considered for a dedicated access road of
at least 130km.
As for the development plan at ATC, what comes next is
another problem and probably why ATC shares have not
moved since the 43-101 appeared. MD&A recommend a
next stage that includes 20,000m of drilling at Osiris,
metallurgy work to investigate the properties of the
sulphide mineralization, geotechnical studies on eventual
pit parameters (much of the resource is located on and
under steep slopes), access study (no road = no mine)
and other work to move the project to PEA level and
according to the compilers, the budget looks as seen in
the inset, right. Even though in ATC CEO Graham Downs
words, "We see potential there for three to five million
ounces" at Osiris, it’s going to be an expensive operation to define what they already have, let
alone double the deposit size, and it’s at this point we present the basic financial parameters of
ATC (we’re not going deep today).
This is a simple exploreco structure and (after a recent re-state) does not capitalize its work on
properties, which means nearly all its assets are liquid and mostly cash. The liability situation is
one of those classically optimum situations, with very little aside for trade payables.
ATC.v: Assets
12
11
10 9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
As a result, we can track most of what we need to know about ATC by watching the working
cap, burn rate and share count so here are those charts. Working cap is just under $7m and
while the burn rate chart shows the seasonality involved in working a location that drops to an
average of -31°C in the winter, it’s a tightly run structure. We can therefore estimate that ATC’s
treasury position can move it through this year and plenty of 2023.
9
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2
C$m ATC.v: Liabilities Breakdown per qtr
2
fixed 1.8
other current cash & eq 1.6
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
source: company filings
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2
C$m
LT liab
current liab
source: company filings
ATC.v: Working Capital per qtr C$m ATC: Approx burn rate/qtr
2.4
2.2
other exp
2
1.8 Explor/Eval expend
1.6
1.4
1.2 1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
1q20 2q20 3q20 4q20 1q21 2q21 3q21 4q21 1q22 2q22
source: company filings, IKN calcs
812.6 376.5
292.8
946.6 789.5
677.8
439.6
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2
source company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
Finally, we see that ATC typically raises capital in the standard way. The latest raising brought
the S/O total to 209.8m, which means its market cap
this weekend is C$19.93m. Let’s call it twenty. ATC.v: Shares Out
We could therefore make the case for ATC as a Value
Proposition (capitalized for irony) as with $7m cash,
over 2m oz gold under 43-101 compliance (including
Tiger Gold at Rau), the wider Rackla deposit, as well
as its second-string assets Rosy, Catch and
Connaught in Yukon plus PIL in BC, on paper you get
a lot of company for not much money. However, the
relative small size of the 43-101 resource as defined
to date next to the issues of access mean that the
$7m in treasury is going to be spent on studies that won’t move the project closer to becoming
a real mine under its own steam and, with $16m of work to fund from a treasury of $7m, the
other handicap is also clear.
So why the interest in ATAC Resources today? It’s a fair question and the answer lies outside
the company.
The above is the 12 month price chart for Snowline Gold Corp (SGD.cse) CSE web page here
(7) and company website here (8) and while it’s possible you haven’t heard of the company so
far in 2022, most of the Canadian junior mining market has because it’s turned into one of the
very few exploreco successes of in this difficult year.
Not only has SGD managed to raise money and get backing from the likes of Eric Sprott and
Crescat Capital, names that guarantee a professional and effective
investor and marketing campaign, but the company has also
managed to deliver the goods with the drillbit. Initial results were
already promising at the company and like it or not (I don’t) they
made good use of “reporting the visuals” on drill core before
getting the official assay results back from the labs, but then real
numbers began to come back from its main Valley/Rogue project
target that were capped off recently by this assay NR (9)
headlining 2.3 g/t gold over 282.9m from surface. That was the
day prices in the chart above topped out at over C$4 intraday
(closed under C$3.50 as profit-takers moved in) and while the
stock price is off somewhat since then, this weekend’s C$2.65 and
the current share count of 130.26m shares makes SGD a C$345m
market capper. That’s the type of valuation ATC used to command
way back when and for much the same reason, as SGD seems to
have hit on a large, open pittable resource that still needs plenty
of work and definition but its discovery and follow-up holes do
open the potential for a 10m+ oz deposit of the type required to get a mine built in such a
10
83.261 66.261 47.261 47.261
43.481 73.481 73.481 18.902 18.902
240
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2
source: company filings
serahs
fo
snoillim
remote location.
In other words, these are the numbers that make a road viable and on that subject, we now
offer for your consideration slide 8 of ATC’s latest corporate presentation:
The Osiris deposit (as well as the nearby earlier-stage Anubis target) are in the red square- To
their south-east, maybe half way between Osiris and the MacMillan Pass project of (mostly) zinc
play Fireweed (FWZ.v), is the Valley discovery of SGD.
This, in a nutshell, is the trade proposition I am considering around ATC at the moment. For
sure I could move in on the obvious trade and buy SGD at this point, but it has to be stated
clearly that as soon as an exploreco spikes on real discovery news and its market cap moves
from seven or eight figure numbers and well into the nines (SGD was briefly worth half a billion
dollars) risk comes along for the ride with the potential reward and it only takes one
disappointing drill assay to reverse sentiment (especially in this current bearish backdrop for
mining stocks). Please be clear, I’m not
dumping on SGD or its potential and in fact I
wish both it and those shareholders who
invest/speculate in the stock the best of
fortune, but this is mining and it pays to be
aware of the downside risk of buying into an
unproven story that has recently added a lot of
equity value to its shares.
Meanwhile, ATC has done this (right) despite
the fact that its circumstances have suddenly
changed. Three months ago there was zero zip
nada chance of the region in which it worked
getting a dedicated line of infrastructure put in
that would revalue its 43-101 compliant gold
resource of 1.776m oz with the potential to go to 3m oz or 5m oz, if its CEO is to be believed.
Today that’s no longer the case because of the good fortune of being a neighbour play to the
Next Hot Thing in the Canadian mining scene. However, it’s clear that ATC hasn’t seen a single
dollar of value added to its market cap to date.
This is the trade proposition with ATAC Resources this weekend. It now has the potential to
revalue if its neighbour continues to deliver on good results at its project(s), as just talk of
“driving a road in” will get people looking around to see what else could drive infrastructure
economics. It may be smaller and incapable of standing alone to justify a road, but Osiris even
11
today would offer enough to play a secondary role. That would be enough and as its high grade
ounces are currently valued at U$11.75/oz in situ (or U$7.65/oz EV in situ, if you prefer) there’s
a mountain of potential upside to the share price, even before ATC moves to spend its own
treasury on the proposed $16m PEA scheme. However and unlike SGD, it has already crashed
to the basement level of valuations for Osiris so if SGD eventually disappoints, its downside risk
is far lower than that of the region’s new and exciting protagonist. Or put in simple terms, due
to the good luck of being located next to the new market hotpot, ATAC Resources (ATC.v)
offers a low risk way of playing the new buzz and hype surrounding the East Yukon territories in
2022 and beyond.
That concludes today’s main Fundies piece and as you see, there’s no trade call or target price
offered. Today’s argument is more of a strategy note than anything else and while it means
ATC will make the Stocks to Follow list as from next weekend, it will go in the “Watchlist”
section for the time being and I won’t be a buyer immediately. In fact, at current prices I think
Newcore (NCAU.v) and Goldshore (GSHR.v) would tempt me before ATC, but that all depends
on how things pan out. Happy to hold current positions, but still keeping powder dry.
Stocks to Follow
There’s a reason we monitor different sub-sectors of the mining market in different sections of
The IKN Weekly, somewhere buried in the madness there is method. This weekend it’s notable
to witness how the larger stocks covered in the Producer Basket all did well, but at the same
time the TinyCaps basket hit a new 52 week low as the tiniest market cappers saw new rounds
of selling. Somewhere in between those is the week’s result from The Copper Basket, with an
average that improved along with the copper spot price but not by that much, as the smaller
stocks in that list also found net sellers and headwinds. Last week saw a late reaction to a
potential improvement in the space and it was enough to move the bigger and more liquid
stocks, those that trade and react to smaller shifts in the gold price, but not so much for the
typical fayre served in the Stocks to Follow list and the juniors that need to wait their turn when
there’s a relief rally (or even a sector trend change, dare we hope).
That sets the scene, now the headcount and five of our 16 covered stocks returned gains on
the week (ARG.to, RIO.v, MIRL.cse, XYZ.v, WRN.to) and four others remained unchanged
(MAI.v, CKG.v, APN.v, MENE.v), which leaves seven losers (SGI.v, QCCU.v, ALDE.v, PA.v,
NCAU.v, ELBM.v, GHSR.v) and while there were larger percentage shifts both up and down,
they tended to be a penny or penny-fifty in the smaller priced stocks and for my taste, the only
move of real significance was the +7.9% put on by Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) as that
bounced from highly oversold levels. All in all, a lacklustre performance for the list compared to
the +5.5% put on by GDX and the +6.3% of GDXJ but if the rally has legs and continues into
the week ahead, the stocks we feature are also just the type and profile that would play catch-
up quickly to the more commonly traded tickers.
Still only two blobs of green on the list and that sucks.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.49 121.4% $1.14 tgt, #1 idea on FY22 dev
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Amerigo Res ARG.to STR BUY C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.09 -19.9% CheapCu w/low downside risk
Superior Gold SGI.v STR BUY C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.435 -54.2% Needs to improve by Q4
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v BUY C$0.275 25-Apr-21 C$0.15 -45.5% Now drilling. Easy hold
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v HOLD C$0.83 22-Apr-18 C$0.135 -81.8% Cheap on permit probs, appeal
12
SPECULATIVE TRADES
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v SPEC BUY C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$2.12 -30.9% Au leverage, small trade so far
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v BUY C$0.72 16-May-21 C$0.65 -9.7% trying patience
Palamina Corp PA.v SPEC BUY C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.08 -74.1% Au expl in S.Peru
Altiplano Metals APN.v HOLD C$0.31 17-Sep-21 C$0.185 -40.3% Cheap entry, plan on track.
Minera IRL MIRL.cse hold C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.095 -51.3% CEO change will move stock
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
Newcore Gold NCAU.v SPEC BUY C$0.51 20-Mar-22 C$0.225 -55.9% potential gold exploreco trade
Electra Battery ELBM.v WATCH C$5.31 20-Mar-22 C$3.89 -26.7% potential battery metals play
Anacortes Mining XYZ.v WATCH C$0.49 22-Jul-22 C$0.54 10.2% potential gold exploreco trade
Goldshore Res GSHR.v WATCH C$0.33 22-Jul-22 C$0.20 -39.4% potential gold exploreco trade
Western Copper WRN.to SPEC BUY C$2.41 20-Mar-22 C$1.75 -27.4% potential copper trade
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.66 6-Dec-20 C$0.51 -22.7% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
2015 to 2021 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for a few notes on some of the covered companies:
Minera Alamos (MAI.v): Company President Doug Ramshaw will be present and presenting
at both Beaver Creek and the Denver Gold Show. He’s a busy guy at the moment, but in a brief
conversation this weekend told me that the Cerro de Oro 43-101 won’t be ready for Beaver
Creek but they are pushing hard to get it out and published for the Denver show, as they’d
really appreciate the opportunity of having that media-centric platform to present the new CdO
size and projected economics. However, doing things right comes above doing things quickly
and while the 43-101 is likely to be ready for the Denver Gold Show, there’s no guarantee.
In trading last week, more of the same with 49c and 50c the general traded level. There’s been
little reaction on the news of good rainfall in the Santana mine zone, despite that news now
confirmed from multiple sources. MAI’s first mine now has all its ducks in line and I for one
expect that elusive commercial production declaration to arrive in Q4.
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v): The stock reacted well enough on Tuesday and I know from mailbag
feedback that the report as published in IKN694 last weekend was received positively by
subscribers, in particular fellow (bag)holders of RIO.v. The week continued when on
Wednesday September 7th RIO.v published this NR (10) entitled “Rio2 Provides Fenix Gold EIA
Plan Update”, which confirmed that the appeals process against the EIA permit denial had
begun and in large part reiterated the same points this desk had gleaned from the official filing
to SEA, the week before last. The one detail in last week’s NR that saw some negative
pushback was the timescale anticipated for the appeals process. A quote:
“…the estimated timing for obtaining EIA approval for the Fenix Gold project is
approximately one and half to two years.”
Some shareholders baulked at that in their feedback and it was a longer estimate than I
expected, too. However, we should note that if the appeal is successful it would mean the EIA
13
were awarded as stands and that would happen after one year. For the process to go on two
years, it would mean that RIO need submit a brand new EIA with greater and more stringent
controls.
That two year timeline also takes into account a worst-case financing scenario and that’s simply
wise corporate planning, Rio2 will want to secure the necessary working capital for its appeals
period in one shot and provide reassurance to the market, rather than raise a little now, a little
later and keep a shadow hanging over the share
price (there’s a near term re-rate still in the works,
I believe). On that, I can confirm that the process
of selling non-core royalties held by the company
and unrelated to Fenix is advanced and timing on
any announcement is more a case of getting the
contracts into good order, rather than any lack of
will from either party. It may take a month, maybe
a little more but in general terms the company is
fully confident of raising the money it will require
to get it through the Chilean appeals process.
As for trading, this ten day chart tells the story. A
good start to the week with plenty of volume, a
reasonable follow-through on the RIO NR day, but a rather disappointing end to the week with
thin volumes returning. 13c looks like a line in the sand.
Western Copper & Gold (WRN.to): In its quest to drum up some “Competitive Tension” in
its attempt to find a buyer for Casino (the title line of this 28 minute interview with CEO Paul
West-Sells) (11), WRN hits the conferences next week but in a small wrinkle, it’s COO Ken
Enquist who is running the presentation and show at the Beaver Creek gig, while CEO West-
Sells is presenting the week after at the Denver Gold Show. I may be reading too much into it,
but Enquist is more the “mining guy” with all the contacts and friends in the junior space and
West-Sells is the corporate guy who will be with the money people and perhaps looking to get a
deal done (with Rio Tinto or other).
Amerigo Resources (ARG.to): A decent recovery on the week, including a spike of volume
late Thursday/early Friday, which saw ARG add nearly 8% on the week but as this chart (right)
shows, ARG is still lagging. I’ve added the
squiggly line for Western Copper & Gold
(WRN.to, see above) as well as the main
copper producer ETF (COPX) for some extra
reference as arguably the best and most
financially robust small copper producer out
there has underperformed over the last ten
days into the dip and recovery.
I’m happy to hold ARG into the long-term and
as explained last week, even U$3.40/lb copper
is enough to maintain its juicy dividend policy
indefinitely so this weekend’s U$3.60/lb
reading makes things even easier and puts
ARG back on course for potential Top-Up
dividends and an effective share buyback resumption
when then facility is renewed at the end of this year. So
let me play the medium/long-term trade but also
recognize that there’s also an oversold breach that near-
term flippers can play at the moment.
Newcore Gold (NCAU.v): I’ve hiked NCAU to “SPEC
14
BUY” on the table above as its trading is beginning to suggest that the current level is a
baseline and price bottom. Its management team is out there promoting the company and I
was encouraged with the NR this week that they are kicking off with a new 5,000m drill
program, just weeks after closing out the 90,000m of the previous program. CEO Luke
Alexander noted the new metres won’t form part of the upcoming resource update during this
webinar last week (12) and also said that while an updated PEA was possible in early 2023 once
the new resource were compiled, there was still nothing confirmed on that score.
Goldshore Resources (GSHR.v): GSHR popped up in a
couple of webinar segments last week and continues to push
its story, but the reaction continues to be lackluster.
At some point it should turn and the result from this NR on
Friday (13), headlining 29.05m @ 2.99 g/t Au in 100m Down-
dip Step-out was reasonable as well, but as mentioned
previously this stock was pushed hard on high-traffic
newsletters and there are plenty of retail still holding sizeable
bags.
Anacortes Mining (XYZ.v): No new news from XYZ last
week but, unlike the above gold explorecos NCAU and
GSHR, the share price action in this company has been
reasonably constructive. The impression given is that of a
lack of sellers and that any new money that wants in now
has to pay up.
Aldebaran Resources (ALDE.v): The NR last week from
ALDE (14) wrapped up results from its pre-winter
closedown, reported seven holes and the news can be split
into three general categories:
(045D, 045L and 045U) were designed to test the
high grade shallow gold mineralized recently discovered at QDM/Radio and while
finding some decent sniffs, didn’t offer a combo of grade+ width to move the stock
One hole (050B) was shut down just as it started moving into the mineralization zone
due to the closedown as winter moved in. That will continue when drilling resumes,
probably next month
Three holes (047B, 048B, 049) returned the same type of long-low-ish grade
mineralization that has typified the Altar deposit to date. Find the part of the table with
those three assays below and while they were never going to move the market (and
didn’t, ALDE traded slackly), they bring more knowledge and copper tonnage to the
project and are certainly valid results.
15
Overall, the market sniffed at the results and while it probably doesn’t deserve to have dropped
on this NR the way it did, it didn’t offer new reasons for new money to come in. It’s now up to
the company to get out and tell its story before the next drill season begins and on that score,
it’s slightly odd to see CEO John Black presenting for Regulus (REG.v) at Beaver Creek this
week, but ALDE isn’t one of the listed companies at the even and doesn’t have a presentation
slot. Maybe a cost-cutting measure…
Altiplano Metals (APN.v): Friday afternoon brought this news (15):
Edmonton, Alberta--(Newsfile Corp. - September 9, 2022) - Altiplano Metals Inc.
(TSXV: APN) (WKN: A2JNFG) ("Altiplano" or the "Company") is pleased to announce
that it has closed a first tranche of its non-brokered private placement (the "Offering")
of up to 10,000,000 units (the "Units") at $0.20 per Unit to raise up to $2,000,000 in
gross proceeds. Each Unit consists of one (1) common share of the Company, and
one-half (1/2) non-transferable share purchase warrant (the "Warrants") to acquire one
(1) additional common share at a price of C$0.30 per share for a period of two years.
This placement wasn’t previously advertised, so seeing the first $600k tranche close (with half
the money coming from insiders) and 3.1m units sold means the company will be marketing in
the days to come to sell the other 6.9m. We know that money was getting a little tight from the
Q2 financials and that APN needs a cash injection to get its new production mill off the ground
before the revenue cheques arrive, so $2m sounds like the right size. If metals prices favour
miners as the year draws to a close, this raising may be enough to make the small and well-run
APN self-sustaining. It was always the plan, after all.
The Copper Basket
After thirty-six weeks of 2022, The Copper Basket shows a loss of 45.49% level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/22 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Copper Mtn CMMC.to 3.42 210.166 332.06 1.58 -53.8%
2 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.77 88.118 279.33 3.17 -15.9%
3 Western Copper WRN.to 2.00 151.451 265.04 1.75 -12.5%
4 Oroco Res OCO.v 2.04 203.4 172.89 0.85 -58.3%
5 Nevada Copper NCU.to 0.71 448.437 143.50 0.32 -54.9%
6 Hot Chili HCH.v 1.53 109.223 109.22 1.00 -34.6%
7 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.84 138.401 89.96 0.65 -22.6%
8 Meridian Min MNO.to 1.18 153.735 86.09 0.56 -52.5%
9 Regulus Res. REG.v 1.06 101.85 81.48 0.80 -24.5%
10 Kutcho Copper KC.v 0.88 103.94 30.14 0.29 -67.0%
11 C3 Metals CCCM.v 0.16 645.379 25.82 0.04 -75.0%
12 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.58 79.24 24.96 0.315 -45.7%
13 Doré Copper DCMC.v 0.79 66.123 23.47 0.355 -55.1%
14 QC Copper QCCU.v 0.34 129.06 19.36 0.15 -55.9%
15 Coast Copper COCO.v 0.13 41.335 2.48 0.06 -53.8%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg -45.49%
There was a clear line of cleavage in the relative performance of Copper Basket components
last week, that of market cap. Four of the six
week-over-week losers (MNO.to, CCCM.v, The Copper Basket 2022, weekly evolution
10%
ALDE.v, KC.v, DCMC.v, QCCU.v) came from the
0%
“$30m or under” category and all six winners
-10%
(CMMC.to, OCO.v, MARI.to, WRN.to, HCH.v,
-20%
REG.v) have market caps North of $80m. The
other three stocks were unchanged (NCU.to, -30%
ECU.v, COCO.v) and two of those were from the -40%
lower market caps, too. As for the big moves, we -50%
16 -60%
ts1naJ ht9naJ ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6bef ht31 ht02 ht72 t6raM ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3rpA ht01 ht71 ht42 1yam ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5nuj ht21 ht91 ht62 dr3yluj ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 t7gua ht41 ts12 ht82 t4pes ht11
source: IKN calcs
had two double-figure percentage winners in Hot Chile (HCH.v up 25.0%) and Regulus (REG.v
up 15.9%), while the biggest downer was C3 Metals (CCCM.v down 11.1%). So a positive week
for the basket average, but the smaller sized losers blew enough headwind to limit the overall
gain to under 1%. It certainly wasn’t as impressive as the action we saw in the price of copper
last week and this update chart shows how my glom and doom thoughts from IKN694 were
apparently misplaced:
The drivers for last week’s rebound in The Good Doctor were, in order of importance
The weakness in the US Dollar
Chinese data and news of further stimulus measures
Supply disruption
Continued inventory draw downs
The drop in DXY as Jay Powell’s jawbone found its limits was the major factor and this Reuters
headline on Friday summed it up nicely (16)
LME copper set for best week in 6 on weaker dollar, China data
That Chinese data included the news from earlier in the week that Xi’s China was doubling
down on Keynesian economic stimulus measures for civil works projects and real estate, sectors
that immediately benefit the copper market, as well as data showing that demand from end
users still wasn’t dropping the way the more pessimistic modellers had assumed. We dial up
this FP story for quote #2 (17):
The premium of LME cash copper over the three-month contract MCU0-3 rose to
$77.50 a tonne on Monday, the highest since December 2021, signalling tightening
supply of immediately available material in the LME warehouses.
“There are some dominant holders of material out there that wants to push prices
higher,” the trader said.
One party is holding 50%-80% of LME copper warrants 0#LME-WHL, exchange data
showed.
Helping that along was a new round of supply disruptions from the two biggest copper producer
nations, as first Peru announced July production of 195,234mt, down 6.6% YoY due to lower
than expected production from two big mines, then Chile added fuel to the fire when unions
announced thye had approved strike action at La Escondida, the world’s largest single copper
mine run by BHP, over what they claim are Health & Safety concerns and precarious working
condition (though BHP strenuously denied all accusations). Your final link and snippet (18):
Sept 8 (Reuters) - Copper prices climbed on Thursday, supported by concerns over
potential supply disruptions in producer countries, although a weak global demand
outlook continued to weigh on the metals sector.
Workers at BHP’s Escondida in Chile, the world’s largest copper mine, threatened on
Wednesday to go on strike.
To top all that off, inventories were down again. Here’s data from the world’s three official
warehouse systems as compiled by Chile’s assiduous bean counters, Cochilco:
17
Another drawdown for the world aggregate of copper, down 7,887mt to close Friday at
185,566mt. All three systems lost tonnage, too.
At the SHFE, stocks dropped by 1,106mt to close at 36,371mt and a continuation of the
same story we’ve documented for many weeks. Shanghai is essentially stockless and
the tiny amount on the official books is unlikely to change.
Once again, the LME drove the week with a loss of 51,00mt to close Friday at
105,450mt. We’ve tracked the cancelled
warrant number quite closely in the last few
weeks and that took a dip, dropping to
30,850mt. That’s a moderately bearish
counterweight to the bullish headline, but if
we take a closer look at the warehouse breakdown, it’s worth noting that 34,250mt
of the total LME tonnage is held in logistically
remote New Orleans, which is up 131% in
2022 year-to-date.
Another modest drop at Comex, inventories
down 1,106mt to 43,475mt. Still no biggie.
The dedicated SHFE charts show largely the same story as in recent weeks. The current 30k to
40k total dominated the last quarter of 2021 and most of 2022, it’s the real world zero.
Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2014 to date
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
18
31'13ceD dr32 ht02 ht51 ht01 ht5tco ht03 ht52 dn22 ht71 ht21 ht6pes ts1von 5102ht72ced ts12 ht71 ht21 ht7guA dn2tcO ht4ceD ht92 ht62 ts12 ht61 ht01 7102
ht5von
ts13 ht52 dn22 ht42 ht91 ht41 ht9 9102
dr3bef
ts13 ht62 ts12 ht51 ht01 0202ht5naj 0202ts1ram ht62 ts12 ht61 ht11 0202ht6ced ts13 ht82 dr32 ht81 ht21 ht7 2202dn2naj ht72 ht42 ht91 ht41
Mt Cu
|
source: Cochilco
SHFE copper inventory levels, 2018 to 2022
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
LME: Cu tonnage under cancelled warrant
MT Cu 2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
source: Cochilco data
Now for some notes on a couple of our basket stocks:
Hot Chili (HCH.v) (HCH.ax): Hot Chili shot higher on Friday on the back of this release (19),
timed to the main Australian listing and the ten-day chart (right) also shows that ticker first and
foremost and the TSXV listing superimposed.
00142 52074 57334 00714 52045 05205 52027 52418 52926 05694 57332 52271 05761 52511 57471 52581 52862 00642 00743 57924 00914 52975 05174
05803
100000
90000
80000
70000
60000
50000 40000 30000
20000
10000
0
dr3rpa ht01 ht71 ht42 1.yam ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5nuj ht21 ht91 ht62 dr3yluj ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7gua ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4pes ht11
mt Cu
source: Cochilco
There’s no doubt which exchange drives this stock price, with 660k volume on Friday in
Australia compared to just 17k in Canada later on in the 24 hour world cycle. The Aussies
seems to have combined what they perceive as an improving political backdrop in the country
with the latest drill NR and multiplied one with the other, as the uptick in volume and price was
far greater than the results imply.
To get a handle on the implication of the “high grade feeder” potential of San Antonio, the
source for last week’s drill assays, here’s a map of the known historic workings and the latest
drill numbers as taken from the NR:
We know San Antonio (sat next to Valentnina) is a previously worked asset and in theory, its
proximity to the main Costa Fuego resources at Cortadera and Productora would allow the
company to blend in its UG tonnes to the lower-grade open pit tonnes and raise overall head
grade. However, the question arises as to how much of a difference it can make.
First, if we consider the assay results as seen from San Antonio and without calculating too
deeply, estimate it can achieve an average mined grade of 1.5% CuEq. Second, we consider
the main open pit tonnes and grade as per HCH’s latest literature:
With 725mmt combined, it means it could run a 50,000tpd operation for over 40 years and
that’s more than enough for our purposes. But as the company’s ballpark plan is to pimp overall
grade in the key start-up period when capital payback is on everyone’s mind, let’s assume they
19
start smaller and only run 20,000tpd for the first couple of years, then bootstrap tonnage
throughput higher at a later date. We assume it runs the average overall grade for the resource
as stated in the above chart, 0.47% CuEq (though the early years may see slightly higher
grades from carefully chosen mine zones).
As for San Antonio, its 1.5% CuEq is an improvement on the open pit grade for sure, but
logistics of underground mining and the widths that the deposit seems to run would crimped
total daily tonnage. I’m going to take a guess that San Antonio could contribute 1,000tpd to the
eventual mill. Therefore, in this early payback period San Antonio could do this for HCH:
20,000 tonnes at 0.47% CuEq
1,000 tonnes at 1.5% CuEq
= 21,000 tonnes at 0.52% CuEq
For sure an improvement but, does that rather marginal pop in head grade that doesn’t even
take into account the potential issues of transport costs, extra permitting, underground
development etc really worth the market reaction we saw last week? I think not and once
again, this desk points the finger at HCH for being too over hyped for its own good. The real
rubber will hit the road when this company offers a realistic number for its capex costs and with
the infrastructure they envisage, that’s not going to be cheap even if they can get it all past the
permitting and environmental people.
Marimaca Copper Corp (MARI.to): Two NRS from MARI last week, one offering drill results
and the other a corporate result. First the assays and Marimaca Announces Infill Drilling Results
Further Confirming Consistency of
Mineralization at the MOD (20) which
announced the end of its 2022 drill program,
but with nearly 22km of mostly RC drilling left
to report. Results as announced were as-per for
the deposit, so perhaps the real news came in
the confirmation comments of VPO Ex Sergio
Rivera, “…our work now focused on the
upcoming mineral resource update planned for
late September or early October.” That’s the
next project catalyst marked for our cards.
Then came the news that moved the stock back
up after two days of lacklustre trading when
Osisko Gold Royalties (OGR) announced (21) it was paying U$15.5m for a 1% NSR on the
Marimaca project area and surroundings. Here are the main bullet points form the NR:
Newly-created royalty on the Marimaca copper project covering approximately 1,310 hectares
including the existing resource and prospective, near-resource targets;
As part of the transaction Osisko has been granted certain rights including a right of first refusal
with respect to any royalty, stream, or similar interest in connection with financing the Marimaca
project;
The Marimaca project is within a well-established mining jurisdiction, located 35 kilometers from
the operating Mantos Blancos copper mine, owned by Capstone Copper Corp. where Osisko
owns a silver stream;
Osisko believes that the Marimaca project is one of the top undeveloped copper projects currently
owned by a single-asset developer
I cannot argue with that too much. OGR has been a bit of a hit-or-miss investor for my money,
but this time they’ve bought a good dependent royalty at a smart time and market-watchers
would do well to note that the company must have done its political homework and is unafraid
of the macro backdrop in Chile. It wouldn’t surprise me to see OGR moving to do deals with
other Chilean exposed companies.
20
The Producer Basket
After thirty-six weeks of 2022, the Producer Basket shows a loss of 17.21% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/22 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 62.02 797.44 34.43 43.17 -30.4%
2 Barrick GOLD 19.00 1779 28.32 15.92 -16.2%
3 Franco-Nevada FNV 138.29 191.192 24.08 125.97 -8.9%
4 Agnico Eagle AEM 53.14 454.904 20.07 44.11 -17.0%
5 Wheaton PM WPM 42.93 450.3 14.88 33.05 -23.0%
6 Gold Fields GFI 10.99 887.72 7.49 8.44 -23.2%
7 Kinross Gold KGC 5.81 1296.5 4.60 3.55 -38.9%
8 B2Gold BTG 3.93 1055.6 3.68 3.49 -11.2%
9 Alamos Gold AGI 7.69 392.503 2.96 7.55 -1.8%
10 Sandstorm SAND 6.20 191.4 1.17 6.11 -1.5%
All prices and stock quotes in U$ Port. avg -17.21%
A reversal of fortune in no uncertain terms after three weeks of pain for the OPM sector. All ten
of our basket stocks made week-over-week gains last week, from least best Gold Fields (GFI up
3.3%) and Newmont (NEM up 3.6%), through the main pack that scored around the +6%
range, to the three best winners Kinross (KGC up 8.2%) Sandstorm (SAND up 9.3%) and
B2gold (BTG up 11.9%). Once the dust had settled it turns out that our illustrious ten picks had
out-done the GDX benchmark by almost a full point. We’re now 2.6% ahead of the GDX
benchmark for the year and while that’s still nobody’s idea of a massive arb advantage, it’s the
“best least worst” of the year so far.
The 2022 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
35% comparative to GDX control
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%
B2 Gold (BTG) (BTO.to) and Newmont (NEM): Anatomy of a Rumour-Hunt. There may be
a good reason as to why NEM was one of the laggards on an otherwise very positive rebound
week and why B2Gold (BTG) was by far the best performer of the bunch. The trail started
Wednesday morning on what was a mildly positive start for our sub-sector when a push alert
came through to note that B2Gold had sprung out the gate and was moving up on volume (as
seen on the ten-day chart, right). Without rushing to find an answer to the move, later that
morning I pinged a friend who knows the stock better than I do to learn that “a rumour about it
being shopped” was doing the rounds, along with a sketched scenario of who and what the
background was, according to my friend.
It was a little circumspect and there wasn’t enough to make for a post on the blog, so that was
that until Thursday morning when A. Reader connected to the NY financial world mailed over a
title line, “Have you heard the chatter on BTG/NEM?”, the type of mail you open immediately.
Here’s what I wrote back:
I think i've heard the same as you.
The jungledrums has Fidelity brokering a deal and that NEM is interested. Frankly, i
would have expected a lot more action if there were real legs in the story. I was
21
ts1naJ ht9naJ ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6bef ht31 ht02 ht72 t6ram ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3rpa ht01 ht71 ht42 1yam ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5nuj ht21 ht91 ht62 dr3luj ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7 ht41 ts12 ht82 t4pes ht11
The 2022 Producer Basket: Percentage difference
5.0% between GDX benchmark & basket (negative = IKN ahead)
ikn 4.0%
gdx control
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
source: NYSE, IKN Calcs
-4.0%
ts1naJ ht9naJ ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6bef ht31 ht02 ht72 t6ram ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3rpa ht01 ht71 ht42 1yam ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5nuj ht21 ht91 ht62 dr3luj ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7 ht41 ts12 ht82 t4pes ht11
source: IKN calcs, NYSE data
considering making mention of it in the Weekly (and now probably will), but there's no
reason to publish on the blog and stoke the rumour. The timing is suspicious, too...it's
"What We Want To Hear" post Labor Day, no?
My mailpal then wrote back with general agreement, noted the potential synergy in Ghana but
also wondered out loud whether NEM shareholders would appreciate exposure to Mali, just for
one. The thing about rumours is that to get legs and run, they need either strong reasons to
believe (e.g. the talks are serious, real and you get the juice from reliable sources) or to be
seated in reasonable logic. I get that BTG is
the right size for NEM and that consolidation
needs to happen in the PM producer world. I
also get that Clive Johnson runs a profitable
mining company and that Fidelity has always
advocated for M&A as an exit strategy, that
goes back to the days of Bema Gold. But on
this one, the story seems too loose and the
timing too convenient. Of course, my dismissal
of this round of chatter doesn’t preclude it
becoming a reality and your author getting
served some fine and well-prepared oeuf-au-
visage, but for every rumour with real
fundamentals there are 20 that come to
naught and on this one, it’s easy to take the
under. Unless, of course, more intel crosses my path.
The TinyCaps List
After thirty-six weeks of 2022, the TinyCaps show a loss of 33.16% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/22 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Aurelius Min AUL.v 0.24 45.836 5.27 0.115 -52.1%
Golden Pursuit GDP.v 0.13 34.638 5.72 0.165 26.9%
Infield Min INFD.v 0.06 48.445 1.45 0.03 -50.0%
Kingfisher Met KFR.v 0.30 103.007 19.57 0.19 -36.7%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.12 57.686 5.77 0.10 -16.7%
Manitou Gold MTU.v 0.06 344.57 12.06 0.035 -41.7%
Melkior Res MKR.v 0.295 24.011 5.64 0.235 -20.3%
Precipitate Gold PRG.v 0.105 129.322 9.70 0.075 -28.6%
Signature Res SGU.v 0.07 238.4 4.77 0.02 -71.4%
Winshear Gold WINS.v 0.08 61.585 3.08 0.05 -37.5%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg -33.16%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
Market capitalization of under $20m. They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a
little and allowed sub-U$20m market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, but it was a particularly depressing exercise to trawl through the whole of the TSXV and find companies
that are small enough, but with life in them. The vast majority of sub-$20m stocks are broken stocks, either
traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2022. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
22
Notably, as the big cap miners rebounded hard these tinycappers dropped away and as a
result, our TinyCaps average hit its lowest point of 2022. This isn’t as counterintuitive as you’d
imagine, however, it’s more about the psychology of being stuck in an illiquid and underwater
loser, then comes the day when you see the “trading stocks” break higher and on interesting
levels of traded volume.
“Enough”, you say, and liquidate the loser at 15% TinyCaps, 2022 weekly tracker
10%
whatever price the market offers and take your
5%
cash to more easily tradable stocks, vowing
0%
never to return to the tinycap end of the market. -5%
Of our ten charges this year, just one (MKR.v) -10%
-15%
returned a week-over-week gain and three
-20%
others stayed unchanged (KFR.v, PRG.v, SGU.v).
-25%
That leaves six losers (AUL.v, GDP.v, INFD.v, -30%
LMS.v, MTU.v, WINS.v) and of those, the big -35%
drop came from Infield Minerals Corp (INFD.v
down 33.3%). Below explains why.
Infield Minerals (INFD.v): Friday saw INFD report on its drilling at the Desperado project in
NV USA, the highlights were covered by three bullet points
• 1,517.9 metres of RC drilling completed across ten drill holes at Desperado in 2022
• Drilling results returned 0.56 g/t gold and 2.6 g/t silver over 1.52 metres in hole DP22-09,
and several additional anomalous 1.52-metre sample intervals above 0.1 g/t gold in other
holes
• The Company is focused on delivering value to our shareholders and continues to evaluate
new opportunities
And yes, those were the highlights. Company President
and CEO Evandra Nakano put on the required C-suite
show and commented on how the campaign had
provided “…important information about the subsurface
rocks, which can lead to a better understanding of the
geological framework and exploration potential for the
area”, but as we on the outside know, there are a
thousand ways of reporting dusters in this game. The
share price did this (right) as the news allowed a
liquidity window for those tired of the story and
“positive cash position” or not (in fact C$1.48m treasury
and C$1.44m working cap as at June 30th), there’s scant reason to remain interested in this
story now that its main project has come up with nothing.
Manitou Gold (MTU.v): The main news of the NR out Wednesday entitled “Manitou Gold
Provides Exploration Results in Support of Western Nickel Spin-Out” (22) is that the company is
in the middle of a three hole drill program that’s designed to show the prospectivity of specific
zones of its large Goudreau land package for nickel. Two holes are complete and in the labs,
with the results pending and MTU talking up what they’ve seen in the core, the third hole is
underway in what they frame as the most prospective zone for Ni mineralization.
No tinycap trade is going to be perfect and hairless, in this case there are a lot of shares out to
dilute any good results and presumably, current holders looking for a window to cash out. But
in MTU’s case there are also large strategic investors and in the period to come, plenty of
newsflow likely as the company moves to spin out the newco (those “free shares” beckon).
High risk yes, but at this 3.5c to 4c entry point there’s also reasonable grounds for a high
reward if things go well. There are worse stories out there, that’s for sure.
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future
I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
23
dn2naJ ht9
naJ
ht61naJ dr32 ht03 ht6bef ht31 ht02 ht72 ht6ram ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3rpa ht01 ht71 ht42 ts1yam ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5nuj ht21 ht91 ht62 dr3yluj ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7gua ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4pes ht11
source: IKN calcs, TSX data
Regional politics
Chile: The new cabinet
This desk may have called the outcome of last weekend’s Constitutional Referendum in Chile
correctly from months out, but the size of victory for “Reject” over “Approve2 of 24 points (62
to 38) surprised nearly all commentators and watchers, no exception here. We also noted last
weekend that President Gabriel Boric would have to make significant changes to both his
ministerial cabinet and the political direction of his government and the size of the victory made
sure those changes happened in hours, rather than weeks. By Tuesday afternoon the re-shuffle
was complete and rather than do another blow-by-blow on the events, I’m going to lean on
Reuters and Al Jazeera today, with just a few extra comments at the end. Reuters in this note
covers the bones of the changes (23):
SANTIAGO, Sept 6 (Reuters) - Chile's President Gabriel Boric announced a major
overhaul of his cabinet Tuesday after voters overwhelmingly rejected a new
constitution that was key to his ambitious agenda.
Just six months into his presidency, Boric announced replacements for his ministers of
mining, energy and the interior. He also replaced the minister secretary-general, who
oversees the president's legislative agenda.
In a speech at La Moneda presidential palace, Boric said the cabinet overhaul was
"one of the hardest things" he has done, but it was necessary to broaden the
government's coalition.
"You can't govern superficially," Boric said. "It hasn't been easy, but changes are never
easy."
Boric named Carolina Toha, an experienced centrist politician who served as mayor of
Santiago and as a minister under former President Michelle Bachelet, to replace Izkia
Siches as interior minister.
Siches, a doctor by trade who gained popularity during the pandemic, faced a number
of controversies since taking office.
Giorgio Jackson, a former student protest leader alongside Boric, will be replaced by
Ana Lya Uriarte as minister secretary-general of the presidency.
Jackson will stay in the cabinet and was named minister of social development.
The president also announced replacements for the health minister, energy minister
and others.
This is the first major overhaul to Boric's cabinet and follows the resignation of Social
Development Minister Jeanette Vega in late August.
Now for some extra flavour from this AlJaz report (24):
Izkia Siches, the former interior minister, was the biggest name to leave the cabinet but
probably the most expected as her tenure had been marked by controversy. Carolina
Toha is taking her place.
Another strong Boric ally, Giorgio Jackson, was removed from the post of secretary
general of the presidency and will take on the role of social development minister; Ana
Lya Uriarte is taking his place. Boric also swore in new health, energy and science
ministers.
Later in the same note, this:
The opposition had said they were expecting changes to Boric’s team, with some
conservative leaders refusing to meet with the president to begin talking about a new
constitutional process until there was a change in his government.
Although polls had predicted Chileans would vote against the proposed constitution,
the 24-point margin of victory for the rejection camp was a shocking repudiation of a
document that was three years in the making.
“We must listen to the voice of the people and walk alongside the people,” Boric said.
Both reports lay emphasis on the arrivals of centre-left politicos Ana Lya Uriarte and Carolina
Toha to positions in the central core of the Boric administration. Not only do they take over the
key roles of Interior Minister (among other roles, in control of the forces of law and order,
police etc) and Secretary General of the Presidency (among other roles, the mouthpiece of the
administration and filter for policy), but they also replace hard left members of Boric’s inner
circle. These two changes alone guarantee a more moderate political line, though it should be
pointed out that Boric could have gone deeper than the six cabinet changes he made (and one
of those was shuffling hard lefty Gorgio Jackson to Social Development and allowing him to
24
retain a ministerial role). The only real issue I have with last week’s re-shuffle is the lack of
change at the Environment Ministry, with lefty academic ideologue Maisa Rojas left in charge.
But at this early stage it’s nitpicking somewhat and going forward, Boric is obliged to moderate
his admin’s position on a wide range of policy points.
As for the future of the Constitutional revamp, that now looks set to be lef tin the hands of the
current sitting Congress (upper and lower houses) who will work in committee to hammer out a
new draft on a method to reach consensus and overhaul the current and still unpopular
Constitution (despite last week’s vote and no matter what Chile’s hard Right might say to the
contrary), a process that may take the majority of Boric’s period of office.
Chile: Insight into environmental permitting under the new Boric government
This link (25) takes you to a long interview in published in Chile’s main business media site,
Diario Financiero (DF) and is one I believe important enough for our subject of focus to
translate and quote extensively. DF reporter Karen Peña does an excellent job of getting the
new head of Chile’s environmental authority the SEA, on the record about several subjects The
title:
"Valentina Durán, Executive Director of SEA: "We work in robust projects from a
technical standpoint. This is not a system designed to reject"
The subhead goes, “The first woman leader of the Servicio de Evaluación Ambiental
(Environmental Evaluation Service, or SEA) talks about three key points of her work and
answers recent criticisms that the entity received from the ex-President of the National Mining
Society (Sonami).” The Q&A touches on several subjects, including that of the overwhelming
victory for “Reject” in last weekend’s Referendum and those with the inkling and the Spanish
should click through for more. For our purposes, we focus on the last part of the note, which is
still quite a long translation but in which we read the SEA’s side of the recent spat between
Sonami and the Chilean environmental authorities as reported last weekend in IKN694, the
SEA’s point of view, how it considers its job of oversight and environmental protection going
forward and even touches on the controversial way the SEA was recently asked to review the
permit already granted to Gold Fields for its Maricunga project. The segment on mining even
has its own subtitle, we begin there:
The polemic with Sonami; "It's worrying they made
such an easily refuted statement"
Reporter: Recently, the ex-President of Sonami, Diego Hernández, caused a polemic
during a Sonami dinner event by severely questioning the work of the SEA regarding
the permitting of projects so far this year. Your bureau quickly replied to deny this....
Valentina Duran: It's important to speak the truth. Dialogue is important, speaking the
truth is important and what is certain is that we have an electronic platform system for
EIA (Evaluation of Environmental Impact) that is very easy to consult. If you use the
search engine and consult for qualified mining projects between March 1st and
September 1st without any filter for regions, you will immediately find 20 mining
projects. Therefore, to say that no mining project has been approved in six months is...
Reporter: He also said that the time required for permitting is slower. Do these
statement worry you from an industry that's so important for the country?
Valentina Duran: It is also false that we have the slowest permitting track in the world.
But above all yes, it does indeed seem worrying that he should make such an easily
refutable statement in a situation such as this, during an industry dinner. We are very
open and we can recognize opportunities to improve, without a doubt. But it's important
that, for an industry as important as mining is, to be able to speak with better clarity. I
have turned the page (on this episode), the person in question has now retired (from
Sonami) and the most important factor is that this will serve to show that our platform
and available information is there and very transparent.
Reporter: The mining companies have made serious accusations, particularly those
that have been refused (permits).
Valentina Duran: There is no will here to reject projects. On the contrary, at the SEA
25
there is a will to make serious, technical evaluations that assure the compliance of
environmental rules that is necessary for the Rule of Law and in a context in which we
all want sustainable development. What's more, we are in a context where the
population demand better environmental protection.
When we look at the result (of the Constitutional Referendum), even though thr
"Reject" option won convincingly all political analyses show that there's a consensus in
the need to reinforce the constitutional protection of the environment, with some
leeway, but all surveys I've seen and all the analysis shows that people want better
environmental protection. There's concern for water, for flora and fauna and a
consensus that we face a triple crisis as the United Nations has said; climate, the loss
of biodiversity and pollution.
Reporter: At the end of the day, did the statements of Hernández surprise you or do
you believe that in some way the mining sector is too sensitive or resentful for the
rejection of permits, for example the emblematic Los Bronces project?
Valentina Duran: There are mining project that have dynamic evaluations, that have
good community relations and offer good baseline studies. I have turned the page on
this incident (with Diego Hernández). What matters to me is to contribute to the
dialogue from a technical perspective, with the truth in order to advance with these
tasks of great importance
Reporter: The Minister of the Environment also upset the mining sector when it asked
that the SEA revise a permit granted to a project. How often are such interventions?
Valentina Duran: There is a permanent relationship of cooperation. We have a
relationship with the Ministry of the Environment, with the Superintendency of the
Environment, each to their own. There are several aspects in which the law demand
we work together to progress and make certain decisions, this is part of the day-to-day
routine. These are subjects that are under analysis but regarding coordination, we can
say they are frequent. There is no pressure in this sense.
Reporter: Does this not add uncertainty to the permitting process, in that any permit
may be in danger in the future due to changed circumstances?
Valentina Duran: The revision of an EIA permit cna be done by us or on request of a
third party. The title holder can also solicit the revision of their permits, this is part of
the system we have and is under the law.
IKN back and while sensu stricto Ms Durán did not tell any lies, she can only pull the wool over
the eyes of the casual observer of the mining industry by mixing up the straightforward permit
grants for “20 mining projects” such as for drilling or baseline studies, and the more important
and serious permits required to move a project into construction and project, e.g. Anglo’s Los
Bronces (mentioned) or the Rio2 Fenix project. Also, she is skating on thin ice by being so
dismissive toward an industry stalwart such as Diego Hernández and is in her own fantasy
world if she thinking the incoming head of Sonami is about to take a different position.
Overall, it’s clear SEA is taking a more militant, pro-environment position with projects such as
those from the mining sector and all the political sweet talk in the world cannot disguise the
anti-mining agenda under the surface at the “New SEA”. However and the positive is the fatc
that this interview exists in the first place; it’s rare to see a government functionary placed in
the media limelight such as this and the way Chile’s business journalism has latched onto the
mining sector’s complaints and got Ms Durán on record will not have been a comfortable
experience for her. The business and mining world have put the spotlight on what is normally
an uncontroversial and staid public service bureau and from now on, you can be sure its
decisions and edicts will be scrutinized closely and perhaps criticized if “anti business”
standpoints are detected. All this is good for the future of Rio2 at Fenix, as their compliance
with the standards asked of it by the government of Chile is forms the basis of its appeals
procedure.
Peru: The political impasse
A new survey out this weekend from reliable polling company CPI (26) notes that President
Pedro Castillo’s approval rating is now down at 22.2%, with a very high 70.9% disapproval
rating. In Lima conurbation he’s even less popular, with approval at 14.4% and disapproval at
26
78.3%, while in the provinces he fares slightly better with approval 26.9% and disapproval
66.6% (and to go a little further, his best polling region is the high Andean zones, where he
gets to 35.5%). This news came on the same day he lost another of his cabinet of ministers
when the new Foreign Minister resigned after just one
month. That now makes 68 ministers in the 13 months of
his presidency and grounds alone to show the instability of
his government.
You’d think with the world against him and a good half
doze legal proceedings now stacking up against him, plus
calls for his impeachment from Congress, that his days
were numbered and they may still turn out to be so. But
then comes the rub, as the same CPI survey reports that
only 6.7% of voters (yes, that says six point seven)
approve of its Congress of parliament, with the 130 seat
enemy of Pedro Castillo getting and 87% disapproval
rating. So even though Pedro Castillo has a poor rating in
Peru and even worse where it really matters in Lima, his
numbers are better than the people looking to depose him
by fair means or foul. That is also understandable and
here’s just one example of the way in which the self-serving fools in Peru’s Congress go about
their work: Without getting too Inside Baseball on this audience we’ll mention in passing that
the newly elected head of Congress (who would in theory become interim Head of State if the
President and Vice-President are ousted) whose election we covered in recent edition, Lady
Camones, was last week thrown out of her new job after a mere month. A secret recording
appeared of her, with party colleagues meeting up with her party head and aspirant for the
Presidency, Cesar Acuña, as they looked to fix a new boundary law in the area around the city
of Trujillo. According to Acuña, the change in boundary and new urban definition in his
stronghold zone would afford him around 120,000 new votes in any eventual election and as
such, he used his position of power with members of Congress and Camones to force his plans
into reality. With the secret recording, he and his party members are now in serious trouble and
Camones was stripped of her new job within 48 hours of the revelations.
Ecuador: A small victory in negotiations
Friday saw talks between government and indigenous protesters that brought the country to a
standstill in June find some common ground on the subject of mining, part of the current 90
day brokered negotiation period between the two sides. Here are a couple of translations from
this article (27):
On Friday, the government of Ecuador and indigenous leaders signed an agreement to
declare a temporary moratorium on the development of 15 oil and gas concession
blocks, and to suspend new mining contracts until a law establishing prior community
consultancy is established.
These measures are the most important agreement reached to date to implement the
agreements put in place after two weeks of anti-government protests in June of this
year.
Regarding that mining moratorium…
The measure is valid for 12 months or until there is a law of free and informed prior
consultancy that counts with the support of indigenous leaders.
For the mining sector, the government has committed to suspend the awarding of
mining concession titles and environmental licences that would allow the start of new
activities in the sector, until it counts on the necessary new rules.
“We have reached agreements and we still have disagreements, but that’s what
dialogue is about”, Minister of Energy and Mines, Xavier Vera, told reporters. “The
working groups are working and yes, we are listening.”
The indigenous groups demand a moratorium on new activity in the petroleum sector
in environmentally sensitive zones and those close to their territories, as well as an
indefinite suspension on the awarding of new concessions to the private sector.”
27
This is some sort of advance, but the two sides also recognized in their own ways that so far
the agreements cover minor issues. The “we still have disagreements” of the minister is the
glass half full view, the glass half-empty came from CONAIE leader Leonidas Iza that same
evening (28), “We really have not advanced in the issue of the oil& gas industry and the issue
of mining”, he told the press conference. The 90 day truce-cum-negotiation period ends in mid-
October, after which Iza has said that his supporters and representative groups will not hesitate
in resuming active protests if necessary.
Colombia: In-country reaction to Mining Minister Irene Vélez
Last week’s extended note “Colombia and the mess that’s about to hit its mining industry”,
attempted among other things to document the trainwreck appearance of Minister of Mining
and Energy, Irene Vélez, at Colombia’s Seventh National Mining Congress in the city of
Cartagena. We quoted a couple of news reports to give backbone to the narrative as else ways,
the reader may have thought this author were lapsing into hyperbole and exaggerating how
badly it all went. No so and this week has seen plenty of repercussions of here conference
appearance in local media, for example this on (29) entitled (best translation possible “Minister
Irene, lower your animated aversion for mining” written by lawyer and member of Congress for
the Antioquia region, Juan Espinal. It’s written in open letter form and here are translations of a
couple of representative excerpts:
“…the announcements of the Petro government and in a direct way, those of yourself,
Minister, have created great uncertainty (in the mining sector), because apparently you
do not like the activity of mining as evidenced at the recent National Mining Congress
hosted by the Mining Chamber of Commerce, where you called the sector “excerbated
extractivism. In fact, when confronted with your exposition the news editor of (national
and respected media channel) Caracol Noticias, Juan Roberto Vargas said to you,
“Minister, why kill the healthy chicken to make soup for the ill chicken?”
That last line is an old saying from deepest Colombia and should be reasonably easy to
understand in context. The opposition member of Congress Señor Espinal continued:
“In any case, in this government we see how the Minister of Mining doesn’t like mining,
that the Minister of Work abhors the business world and how the Minister of Defence
accuses the Police Force. Less fuss and more reality please, Minister. You don’t have
to be an expert in mining to work this sector using common sense.”
In other news, we are still awaiting the next government statement on what it plans to make
good on its pledges to tighten up the environmental and permitting side of the mining industry
(which includes the O&G world, as Colombia tends to lump in hardrock and hydrocarbons
activity under the same “mining” title), though the assumption that the Ministry of Environment
under Susana Muhamad is about to introduce the requirement for an EIA just to go exploring
and prospecting in the country is now growing. As for the rather different subject of O&G in
Colombia, please read on:
A mail exchange on Colombia Oil & Gas
This is not my field and I readily admit that, both here and below in the exchange you will read.
That said, among the feedback on last week’s Colombia’s mining mess coverage came an
interesting question from long-time subscriber and occasional mailpal, Reader M. Here’s how
the mail exchange went and it’s reproduced here, less for my thoughts and more to get to
Reader M’s observations, as I thought them astute and his “1,2,3,4” table a good way of
framing Colombia’s O&G scenario under this Petro government. It started with M’s first inquiry:
Hi Mark,
Perhaps you'll consider it going beyond your remit, but I'm hoping you might expand
your commentary about extractionism in Colombia (and Peru?) to include the Oil &
Gas sector. After all, the same people are involved, and their political philosophies also
apply. Besides, at least in Colombia, the Oil & Gas sector is much more important than
mining.
Regards, M____________
Here’s what I wrote back:
28
I only just scrape by in hardrock mining, M. On hydrocarbons I only know enough to be
dangerous. That said, it's been impossible to watch the goings on in the Ministerio de Minas
y Energia without noticing the policy roll-out for oil&gas. Some thoughts on differences:
Colombia hydrocarbons are currently Too Big To Fail, and Petro knows it. Throw coal
in the mix, as well. Between oil, gas and coal Colombia is too dependent to change
much at the moment, too reliant on the hard dollars from exports, too many people
employed in the sectors.
I totally believe Petro when he talks energy transition and weaning the country off
hydrocarbons. However, it's an easy sell and they can maintain the Utopia scenario.
The investment cycle is easier with O&G, they can delay the search for new reserves
and get four years into the "eight year reserve limit" and the, if required, allow
exploration to resume.
O&G has a different environmental footprint than mining, the contamination and impact
isn't as centred on the extraction zone as hard rock mining or coal. Stricter controls can
be placed on refinery circuits rather than front end production and the results will look
good politically.
Hard rock mining is an easier target for ideologues in Colombia and by a great
distance. They can "get their win" by curtailing gold or other large projects, or taking
the side of locals who don't want exploration to continue (Mocoa) and those calls will
be net vote winners in the country. It's not TBTF in the same way.
They are sincere about fracking, however. It's somewhat akin to mining in that it's not
established in the country and "normal" exploration methods for O&G will still bring
success.
Happy to hear your thoughts, as mine don't survive in a vacuum for very long.
And here’s Reader M’s reply to that:
“I only just scrape by in hardrock mining, M. On hydrocarbons I only know enough to
be dangerous.”
For me, O&G speculation is much easier. Easier to evaluate prospects, and
much faster to profitability.
“That said, it's been impossible to watch the goings on in the Ministerio de Minas y
Energia without noticing the policy roll-out for oil&gas.”
Which is why I asked. Same cast of characters. Petro is an ideologue and the ministers
are academics, which is even more frightening. Two categories not known for good
real-world decision-making.
I see their range of potential policies (in descending order of severity) as follows:
1. Stop production
2. Allow production but stop development
3. Allow development but stop exploration, even on already-granted licenses
4. Simply stop issuing new licenses
Right now, they are on (4), which is a reasonable compromise between their principles
and economic reality. It's movement in the direction of (3) or even (2) that concerns
me, and the announcements about reviewing existing licenses are an indication that
may be happening. I realize that they may have been referring to mining licenses, but
I'm not sure I trust them to draw the line there. For my speculations, I'm happy with (4),
because my companies have enough exploration prospects on already-granted
licenses to keep them going for many years, and they only need a very few years to hit
EV=0, which is an entirely different thing for an O&G producer than it is for a mining
explorer.
My speculations, in case you're interested:
- Parex: an extremely well-run Colombian oil company that is paying down debt and
rapidly heading toward EV=0.
- Arrow: a fairly new Colombian producer/explorer, which could hit EV/CF=1 in a
couple of years
- Canacol: a Colombian gas producer with long-term offtakes, great
exploration/development prospects, and an 8.6% dividend
- Touchstone: a Trinidadian oil and gas producer, with very large resources under
development and great exploration potential
I believe Petro will raise taxes, but I think the three Colombians I listed can weather
that, and that it's already baked into their prices.
As a gratuitous addendum, I'll say that I don't really mind Petro raising taxes, there's
probably a lot of the failed Chilean constitutional changes I'd approve of, and I'm
29
sympathetic (often, but not always) to the people at the blockades in Peru and
Ecuador. I've traveled enough in Sough America to have a fair amount of sympathy for
the indigenous highlanders, and for the urban poor everywhere. I would like to see
Boric and Petro succeed in improving their countries overall, although it would be nice
if they didn't cost me too much in the process.
Thanks again for your thoughts.
For what it’s worth, I debated on whether to leave Reader M’s trades in this reproduction but in
the end, saw no particular harm and I emphasize that I have no position in any of them. To
round off the exchange, I replied to him this way:
1. Stop production
2. Allow production but stop development
3. Allow development but stop exploration, even on already-granted licenses
4. Simply stop issuing new licenses
This is a good way of visualizing it.
1) Not going to happen, it's the TBTF factor
2) Ex-fracking unlikely, but include the fracking and it counts
3) This is a possible scenario and can happen in stealth, rather than with an overt rule
change. The Spanish saying "poner palos en las ruedas" (stick poles in the
(cart)wheels) comes to mind, they can make the paperwork interminable and slowplay
permits to their hearts' content. This avoids dealing with a minority Congress.
4) Will happen.
Aside the pleasantries, that was the end of my exchange with M and it’s reproduced on an as-is
basis. Make of it what you will, but I certainly think his observations are sharp enough to be of
benefit to others. Thank you, Reader M.
Argentina’s new Energy Secretary reaffirms commitment to mining
Flavia Royón may have been appointed Energy Secretary rather than taking the Mining
Secretary role, and the main thrust of her presentation to Argentina’s 4th Public Policy Day (in
which policies are expounded to media and other interested parties) (30), but by the end she
had made sure all mining activity including copper and other large projects aside from the
lithium space were included in her comments and the one data point that made all the daily
papers the next day was a classic trigger for the country: “Chile is better than us”. There’s
nothing that annoys an Argentine more than knowing its Andean neighbour is doing something
better than they are, so when Royón emphasized how “Argentina exports minerals worth
U$4Bn per year, while countries such as Chile and Peru export between U$30Bn and U$40Bn
per year” she may have been speaking accurately about data the rest of us take for granted,
but she knew exactly what she was saying and why. She rounded off in no uncertain terms with
(translated):
“Mining and mining exports are part of the solution to Argentina’s macro-economic
problems, they are sectors with a highly positive balance of payments. They allow
diversification of our export mix, so that we are not only connected to foodstuffs.”
Market Watching
Bluestone Resources (BSR.v) and a mining referendum
For some reason or another, not everyone likes me. Maybe it’s my body odour, maybe the poor
taste in clothes, or perhaps it’s the preference for straight talk about the weak pints of mining
companies while other corners of the world get paid to promote everything that’s good about
the stock and its corporate mining line (all hooks and sinkers attached). A case in point has
been Bluestone Resources (BSR.v) and its promotion and “development” (term used loosely) of
the Cerro Blanco project in Guatemala. From the start of its story when purchased out of
Goldcorp after getting nowhere due to local opposition, the glaring environmental and social
issues have always been foremost in your author’s argument against BSR despite its strong
grades, obviously attractive on-paper economics and A-Lister management team that got better
when the Lundin family took over the show. The company didn’t impress this desk when it paid
$475,000 for puff-piece promotion, either (31)
30
Once an underground project plan that hit big problems due to the underground heat (it’s next
to a volcano, BSR was converted it into an open pit project that would offer excellent and
robust economics as long as it were permittable. However, the social bugbear has never gone
away and, as the project has moved through its technical evaluation gears, the opposition has
steadily grown on a local, national and even international level (not least due to the nature of
the project and its location, its may affect both host Guatemala and its neighbour El Salvador,
as peer-reviewed environmental strudies show that water drainage from Cerro Blanco would
cross the border via El Salvador’s largest river, the Rio Lempa, and potentially affect the water
supply to the capital city and surrounding areas.
All this time, BSR has fought a rearguard action against the social and environmental criticism
of the project. For one example, the blog took time out (32) to skewer this corporate nonsense
from BSR dated February 28th 2021 (33):
Following an initial review of the viability for a surface mining operation, discussions
were held with key national stakeholders and authorities to confirm the endorsement
for a project of this scale in Guatemala. Bluestone is committed to adopting world class
responsible mining practices for the future of sustainable mining.
Or for another example, this post dated July 2021 (34) that noted the growing social unrest
toward mining in the country and the Bluestone project. We’ve also featured the battle here in
the Weekly from time to time, for example in IKN664
dated February 13th this year in the note “Guatemala
and El Salvador environmentalists join against
Bluestone (BSR.v)”, which documented the growing
legal pressure against Cerro Blanco and the calls for the
concession to be cancelled by authorities on both sides
of the border. But now the issue is about to come to a
head, as the municipality host of Cerro Blanco, Jutiapa
in Guatemala, will vote next Sunday September 18th in
a referendum to decide whether the mine should go
ahead and despite reported pressure from groups
wanting the mine to get approval (35) the vote is
expected to get at least 30,000 people moving to vote
and an expected victory for the opposition to the mine.
The recent drop in the share price may only be the first waterfall of many. Even though it’s
down a lot (and that has not been a surprise), there’s more to lose from this stock price as the
world realizes just how unpermittable it really is.
Conclusion
IKN695 is done, we end with bullet points:
ATAC Resources (ATC.v) will be on our Watchlist of potential trades as from next
weekend. For sure not as exciting and glamorous as the main Yukon exploration story
for 2022, Snowline (SGD), but we don’t buy stories. We buy equities.
Chile looks to be returning to something more like its norm and if so, that’s good news
for the mining industry (and for Rio2 as it begins its appeals process).
It’s going to be a busy week for presentations. With a little luck, the gold and metals
prices can provide a little tailwind and get more smiles on the faces of those attending
the September conferences.
31
There was a notable increase in reader feedback last week, which was very welcome to
see at this end of the pipe. Maybe because the Northern summer is now in the books or
maybe not, but it would be good to read more from you out there and this edition has
benefited from your input. Nothing survives in a vacuum, after all.
Buy and own Minera Alamos (MAI.v). Hardly original, but it’s still the best reco I have.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stock is Minera Alamos (MAI.v). Flash
updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best wishes, Mark
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://www.precioussummit.com/event/2022-precious-metals-summit-beaver-creek/?section=home
(2) https://www.goldforumamericas.com/program-agenda-gold-forum-americas/
(3) https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y
(4) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-09/summers-says-dollar-can-go-further-with-huge-advantage-for-
us
(5) https://atacresources.com/investors/presentations/
(6) https://iknnews.com/atac-resources-atc-v-bristows-first-victim-there-will-be-more/
(7) https://thecse.com/en/listings/mining/snowline-gold-corp
(8) https://snowlinegold.com/
(9) https://snowlinegold.com/2022/08/24/snowline-gold-intersects-2-3-grams-per-tonne-gold-over-282-9-metres-at-its-
valley-zone-and-commences-drilling-at-gracie-rogue-project-yukon/
(10) https://www.rio2.com/post/rio2-provides-fenix-gold-eia-plan-update
(11) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vfTLkcTTFQ0
(12) https://webinars.6ix.com/6ix/Newcore-Gold-Unlocking-the-Multi-Million-Ounce-Potential-of-a-Gold-District
(13) https://goldshoreresources.com/goldshore-intersects-29-05m-2-99-g-t-au-in-100m-down-dip-step-out/
(14) https://aldebaranresources.com/news-releases/2022/aldebaran-reports-all-remaining-holes-from-2021-2022-altar-
drill-program/
(15) https://www.juniorminingnetwork.com/junior-miner-news/press-releases/1741-tsx-venture/apn/127674-altiplano-
closes-initial-600-000-tranche-of-private-placement.html
(16) https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/lme-copper-set-for-best-week-in-6-on-weaker-dollar-china-data/
(17) https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/copper-prices-increase-on-weaker-dollar-china-stimulus-2
(18) https://www.reuters.com/article/global-metals/metals-copper-rises-as-traders-assess-potential-supply-disruption-
idUSL1N30F09N
(19) https://finance.yahoo.com/news/strong-copper-silver-drill-results-004306297.html
(20) https://finance.yahoo.com/news/marimaca-announces-infill-drilling-results-110000812.html
(21) https://finance.yahoo.com/news/osisko-announces-royalty-transaction-marimaca-210000327.html
(22) https://manitougold.com/news/news-releases/manitou-gold-provides-exploration-results-in-support-of-western-
nickel-spin-out
(23) https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/urgent-chiles-boric-reshapes-cabinet-after-voters-reject-new-constitution-
2022-09-06/
(24) https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/6/chiles-boric-reshuffles-cabinet-after-new-constitution-rejected
32
(25) https://www.df.cl/empresas/medio-ambiente/valentina-duran-directora-ejecutiva-del-sea-trabajen-en-proyectos
(26) https://rpp.pe/politica/gobierno/pedro-castillo-el-709-de-los-peruanos-desaprueba-la-gestion-del-presidente-segun-
encuesta-de-cpi-noticia-1431210
(27) https://www.eleconomista.com.mx/internacionales/Gobierno-de-Ecuador-cierra-acuerdo-con-indigenas-para-la-
moratoria-temporal-sobre-petroleo-y-mineria-20220909-0068.html
(28) https://www.elpais.cr/2022/09/09/lider-indigena-de-ecuador-senala-atasco-en-dialogo-sobre-mineria-y-petroleo/
(29) https://alponiente.com/ministra-irene-decrezca-su-animadversion-por-la-mineria/
(30) https://www.agenciapacourondo.com.ar/economia/las-exportaciones-mineras-son-parte-de-la-solucion-los-
problemas-macroeconomicos-de
(31) https://iknnews.com/the-bluestone-bsr-to-cad475000-pump/
(32) https://iknnews.com/bluestone-resources-bs-r-v-has-talked-with-the-authorities/
(33) https://bluestoneresources.ca/news/index.php?content_id=169
(34) https://iknnews.com/invested-in-guatemala-think-again/
(35) https://www.diariocolatino.com/persecucion-politica-a-miembros-defensores-de-comision-laudato-si/
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Set-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Abr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
33
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Ago-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Set-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Ene-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Set-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Ene-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Set-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Ago-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Abr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Set-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Abr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Set-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
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Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-ago-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-ene-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-abr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-abr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-ene-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-ene-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-abr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-abr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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