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The IKN Weekly
Week 692 August 21st 2022
Contents
This Week: In Today’s Edition, When in a Jackson Hole Stop Digging.
Fundamental Analysis: Superior Gold (SGI.v) 2q22 financials.
Stocks to Follow: Goldshore Resources (GSHR.v), Mene Inc (MENE.v), Aldebaran Resources
(ALDE.v), QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v), Electra Battery Materials (ELBM.v).
Copper Basket: Overview, Hot Chili (HCH.v) (HCH.ax), Meridian (MNO.to), Regulus (REG.v).
Producer Basket: Overview, Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM).
TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Aurelius (AUL.v), Manitou Gold (MTU.v), Signature Gold (SGU.v).
Regional Politics: Colombia’s new government on gold, Chile: Another major walks, The
Lundin (LUN.to) sinkhole in Chile is worth watching, Chile’s Constitutional referendum update.,
Peru: The noose tightens for Pedro Castillo, Argentina Chubut: Pan American Silver closing
down Navidad.
Market Watching: Deferred.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
In Today’s Edition
 Today’s main Fundies section picks over the damage caused to the portfolio by Superior
Gold’s 2q22 report out last Wednesday. I’m kind of kicking myself for….no, in fact IO’m
kicking my self hard for being dumb and assuming the market would take what was
already signalled as a soft quarter in its stride. Stupid me, there’s nothing logical or
rational in this current backdrop and I should have realized that, but the future is what
matters and we consider the company in light of its new and discounted circumstance.
 The week’s Regional Politics section has three stories from Chile, with two negative
events in the mining sector to add to the quickly accumulating pile, while the other note
points out the improving likelihood that “Reject” wins out in the upcoming
Constitutional Referendum.
 The coming week is the Jackson Hole Symposium, with all eyes on Jay Powell’s keynote
speech set for Friday. Inflation, recession, stagflation and what the Fed will do next, all
those subjects that matter to us because they matter to the price of gold. Sooner or
later there will be a time to buy this market and hopefully it’s sooner, but the prudent
course of action is to wait out until September minimum, that’s today’s Intro.
 However, those looking to play the market and willing to run some high risk for high
reward may want to consider the developments at the minnow exploreco Manitou Gold
(MTU.v). The TinyCaps list exists for more than one reason and we choose the
components each year carefully, as every so often they throw out a potential trade.
When in a Jackson Hole Stop Digging
“August rain: the best of the summer gone, and
the new fall not yet born. The odd uneven time.”
Sylvia Plath
Along with US Labor Day Monday (set for September 5th this year), the Jackson Hole Economic
Policy Symposium marks the unofficial end of the summer vacay season, Back To School for
1

some, Back To Work for the others and Back To The Equity Window for junior mining
companies looking to fund their year ahead (or at least raise enough to pay the auditors). The
main event of the symposium will be Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech, under the prosaic title
“Economic Outlook”, on Friday August 26th at 10am. Econowonks will hang on every word, as
will most market watchers looking for clues on the broad markets, bonds, gold and commodities
prices and the list goes on.
On reading in a preview note this weekend that this will be Jay Powell’s fifth speech at Jackson
Hole, the thought arose to check out what he said this time last year and this link (1) does a
great job of summing up the main points concisely. Here’s most (not all) of the script with some
personal highlighting done:
While noting that various measures of inflation are running in a range between 3.6%
and 4.2% annually, well above the Fed's long-term goal of 2%, Powell indicated that
"transitory factors" affecting "a narrow group of goods and services impacted
by the pandemic" are mainly to blame.
In particular, Powell observed, "Elevated inflation in durable goods is due to supply
bottlenecks." He added that inflation in durables is stabilizing and may fall as supply
problems end. A major contributor to inflation in durables has been used car prices,
which current data shows as stabilizing and thus on track to bring broader measures of
inflation down. Overall, he sees growing improvement in "supply and demand
imbalances."
Powell also cautioned that current 12-month measures of inflation are not now
capturing certain sharp price declines that occurred early in the economic downturn,
notably in airlines and hotels. Additionally, while there have been significant wage
increases in certain industries as firms try to fill open jobs, he sees little evidence that
a wage-price spiral is developing in which wage increases passed on to consumers
fuel successive rounds of inflation.
Rather, Powell sees the current trend of wages as consistent with the Fed's long-term
goal of 2% aggregate inflation. Indeed, he indicated that there are still "sustained
deflationary pressures" coming from technology, globalization, and possibly also
demographics. "Overall global deflationary trends remain in force," he believes.
Finally, the Fed Chair noted that expectations about future levels of inflation are
moving less than the current readings. This, he says, shows widespread confidence
that the Fed will keep long-term inflation at 2%.
Summing up, the head of the Federal Reserve used Jackson Hole 2021, one of the most
important policy platforms of the year, to tell its audience that:
 The Inflation we were seeing at the time was transitory
 Inflation was limited to a narrow group of goods and services
 The supply/demand imbalance was improving
 Nobody should worry about a wage spiral
 Deflation and not inflation was still the dominant force for the world economy
 The Fed was confident about keeping long-term inflation at 2%
Now we know that the headline prediction of “transitory inflation” has been thoroughly
debunked by events since then, but it’s telling to see just how badly wrong the Fed was in its
assertions. To underscore, here’s an update of the chart from here (2) that first appeared in
IKN690, the July’21 +8.5% reading added since then:
2

So the first thing to take away from Jackson Hole this week is that the world will be hanging on
the Fed Head’s words, the second will be that he’s not guaranteed an easy audience. To that
end, we should expect him to come out all guns blazing and if you read enough of the Jackson
Hole 2022 preview notes and op-eds out there this weekend, the consensus is that Jay Powell is
going to drive home the message that inflation is The Great Evil That Must Be Slain.
That’s not a small point. The whole of the “Fed Gonna Pivot” movement is the reason for the
recent rally in equities and other dollar denominated issues. For a good example of the line of
reasoning, see the IKN688 intro and the extended quote from Mark Spitznagel of Universa
Investments, including "The Fed is actually trying to lead us to believe that they are prepared to
tighten into a recession, which of course is a ridiculous prospect.” The assumption is of a Fed
without the cojones to deliberately drag the USA into a sharp recession in order to tame
inflation and no matter whether it transpires in the months ahead or not (FWIW I for one think
Spitznagel has got it exactly right), we’re likely to hear Jay Powell doubling down on his
“Anything It Takes To Stop Inflation” message this Friday. What will then matter is the
reception of his speech, the pushback he gets (and from what corners) and afterward, whether
facts back up his assertions better than they did in 2021. However, the speech Friday is likely to
be a bummer for equities as for a while at least, the Fed’s preferred jawbone gains the
initiative. For example (3):
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will use his closely-watched Jackson Hole
speech next week to stress that the central bank is going to bring down the high U.S.
inflation rate even if it means a recession, economists said.
“The core message will be the Fed’s dogged determination to bring inflation down even
though they know they’ll be running substantial risks of a weaker short-term growth
outlook than they would like,” said Lou Crandall, chief economist of Wrightson ICAP.
That report mentioned in passing the Fed Minutes, as published last Wednesday and as
mentioned as a possible market mover in IKN691
last weekend along with US CPI the same
morning. As things turned out, the CPI number
took all headlines with a 0.0% reading, with
underlying +0.7% excluding (or if you prefer,
+0.4% excluding auto sales and that’s as far as
I’m going down that particular rabbit hole). The
Fed minutes then went along the same lines and
combined, Wednesday added credence to the
Plain Vanilla Recession camp and as a result, gold
dropped. While the CPI made the headlines and
got all the mentions, the real clues for next week’s
Jackson Hole speech came in the Fed Minutes and
with a little extra searching, this report (4)
summed up the contents and likely effect
The Fed will meet again in late September. Officials have said that more rate hikes are
appropriate and there is an ongoing debate on whether to raise rates by 50 basis
points or another 75 basis point move.
Fed officials were worried about the “significant risk” that elevated inflation could
become entrenched if the public began to question the Fed’s resolve to hike rates by a
sufficient amount to quell inflation.
While policy firming might slow the pace of economic growth, Fed officials saw the
return of inflation to 2% as “critical” to achieving the goal of a healthy labor market.
That passage got the nod because it also mentioned the exact timing of the next FOMC
because from here, the Fed gets over a month to regain the narrative it prefers and as its
whole focus is now on inflation suppression, we’re going to get that in spades on Friday. So
summing up, this year’s Jackson Hole is more important than the average edition. We also
know from last year’s event that the Fed’s stance can be dead wrong without there being much
pushback, which gives Jay Powell yet another reason to jawbone hard. We should take care
and assume the Plain Vanilla Recession scenario gains ground. That’s not good for metals in the
near-term, no matter whether hard data coming in September points to the more likely
3

stagflation scenario. We saw the same tilt in the gold market last week, with anemic action and
Wall St. net sellers, as GLD inventories dropped almost six metric tonnes to close at 989.01mt.
GLD gold holdings, 2021 to date (metric tonnes)
1200
1180
1160
1140
1120
1100
1080
1060
1040
1020
1000
980
960
940 920
900
That’s the Ukraine Effect is now all but totally unwound and as for our sentiment tracker, the
GLD Inventory/Price ratio, that finished the week at 6.08X, barely above the “washout” level of
6X and indicative of the near-total apathy that the market continues to display toward gold and
bullion ownership.
Bottom line: With Jackson Hole looming over the week, the likelihood of a Fed Heads taking a
strong rhetorical “Whatever It Takes” stance against inflation, a mining market still in the
Doldrums and a gold market where apathy reigns, the week ahead is another in which I plan to
sell nothing, buy nothing and keep powder dry for another day.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Superior Gold (SGI.v) 2q22 financials (in USD unless stated)
Today’s main fundies section focuses on the 2q22 financial results from our junior gold
producer play, Superior Gold Inc. (SGI.v), the market reaction to the results and what it all
means to the stock and its share price going forward. We begin by rolling back one week and
our preview of the results day in IKN691 last Sunday, which was slightly more extensive but a
fair summing up of the position came in the final bullet points. Here’s that segment verbatim:
We’re not expected a sparkling bottom line from SGI in its 2q22 financials this week,
but that won’t stop it from shaping as an even better value proposition for the quarters
ahead, as long as it guides adequately. There’s a ton of potential value in this stock at
this price, basically a 50% upside just to get to a Loonie.
Now for what happened, illustrated by the five-day chart of SGI and benchmarking its reaction
against the main junior miners’ ETF, GDXJ:
Understatement Alert: That was not what I was expecting.
4
02/21/13 12/1/02 12/2/9 12/3/1 12/3/12 12/4/01 12/4/03 12/5/02 12/6/9 12/6/92 12/7/91 12/8/8 12/8/82 12/9/71 12/01/7 12/01/72 12/11/61 12/21/6 12/21/62 22/1/51 22/2/4 22/2/42 22/3/61 22/4/5 22/4/52 22/5/51 22/6/4 22/6/42 22/7/41 22/8/3
mt GLD: Inventory/Price Ratio, 2021 to date
7.00
6.80
6.60
6.40
6.20
6.00
5.80
5.60
source: SPDR GLD data 5.40
13/21/0202 02/1/1202 9/2/1202 1/3/1202 12/3/1202 01/4/1202 03/4/1202 02/5/1202 9/6/1202 92/6/1202 91/7/1202 8/8/1202 82/8/1202 71/9/1202 7/01/1202 72/01/1202 61/11/1202 6/21/1202 62/21/1202 51/1/2202 4/2/2202 42/2/2202 61/3/2202 5/4/2202 52/4/2202 51/5/2202 4/6/2202 42/6/2202 41/7/2202 3/8/2202
Source: SPDR data, IKN calcs

Hooboy, this one needs unpacking. There was no reason to expect a strong quarter because
since July 19th we’ve known it wasn’t going to be
so, that being the date SGI announced its 2q22
production and sales data with a few other metrics
also pre-announced. Those numbers got crunched
back in IKN688 dated July 24th and, while readily
recognizing a mediocre set of numbers at the
time, there were also enough extenuating
circumstances to explain the issues in Q2, plus of
course the stock took a 10%+ hit on the advent of
the news release that day (chart right). Please
check IKN688 for the full story, but here we’ll
suffice with a brief quote from the conclusion, “A
mediocre quarter from SGI, but the company is
largely blameless and has basically been unlucky
in 2022 to date” and also note I wrote that while disappointed with its Q2 production, at that
point I remained a “Happy Holder”.
So, what went wrong and why did SGI sink by just under 25% last week on the announcement
of its financial results? For that we start by considering what it reported compared to what we
expected, that starts by pasting out the bullet point highlights from last week’s NR and writing a
few post-mortem notes under each item. The 2q22 results NR is on this link (5) and while on
the subject, the link to the latest corporate presentation is found here (6) and is another useful
source of information. We also have the link to last week’s Conference Call (7) and finally, SGI
also ran a webinar the next day Thursday in which CEO Chris Jordaan went through the results
and numbers as well as taking questions from the floor (a useful half hour, link here (8)). So to
business and here are those bullet points from Wednesday in italics, our notes under each:
 Safety performance improved during the quarter with a 24% reduction in the total injury frequency
rate achieved during the period. Our safety improvement program is progressing and on track
Fair enough and I agree this is an important factor, not least to attract talent at a difficult
moment for the industry.
 Production of 15,196 ounces, a 21% decrease over the comparative quarter of 2021 as a result of
unusually high rainfall and medical absenteeism as a result of the removal of COVID-19
restrictions in Western Australia in April 2022
We knew this on July 19th
 Sold 16,726 ounces of gold at total cash costs1 of $1,748 per ounce sold, an increase of $336 per
ounce sold or 24% in comparison to the second quarter of 2021 due to fewer ounces produced
We knew this on July 19th
 All-in sustaining costs1 increased by $410 per ounce sold or 27%, in comparison to the second
quarter of 2021, to $1,929 per ounce sold, above the realized gold price1 of $1,877 per ounce,
due to higher total cash costs1 as well as higher sustaining exploration and capital expenditures1
Higher than expected, as we’ll see below. And when your AISC is higher than your received
price, it means you make a loss on your quarter.
 Announced an updated Mineral Reserve and Resource statement indicating a 66% increase in
mineral reserves
While only a snapshot of the current state of play and Plutonic is expected to see plenty of
resource expansion in the future, this is a solid step forward and testament to the technical
geological work that’s been going on in the background by the new team.
 Annual guidance adjusted with production now expected to range between 69,000 to 75,000
ounces, with all-in sustaining costs1 to now range between $1,800/oz to $1,900/oz
5

We were expecting a drop in guidance, but not by that much. Our estimate in IKN688 was for a
new guidance of between 75k oz and 80k oz gold, with the revised financial model based on
76,660oz. With SGI’s new upper limit our previous assumed lower limit, this was the major
negative of last week’s release.
 Strong cash and cash equivalents of $18.2 million
We knew this on July 19th (pre-announced cash position).
Summing those up before we move into the numbers, the pre-announcement of production,
sales and cash position a month ago made it clear this quarter was not going to sparkle. Costs
were higher than expected though not a massive miss, but the psychology of seeing AISC
higher than received gold price was a negative. The main negative was the forward guidance of
between 69k oz and 75k oz, down from 80k-90k and lower than our estimated downgrade (75k
to 80k). Here’s a screenshot from the latest corporate presentation that shows the revised
guidance compared to the original, along with the new cash cost and AISC guidance (for the
record, capex, sustaining capex and exploration budgets remain unchanged from guidance).
SGI: Avg received Au price vs AISC, per qtr All this means 3q22 and 4q22 aren’t going to be
2000
as good as expected and we’ll see the 1900
1800
ramifications of that in the charts below. Overall,
1700
2q22 came in slightly worse than expected but it 1600
1500
certainly wasn’t 25% worse as per the price dump
1400
suffered by the stock. Now for details and we’re 1300
1200
going to stick mostly to the financial criteria, as 1100
most of the production matter were covered in 1000
IKN688. Here’s revenues and mine COGS at
U$31.469 and U$31.532 respectively (i.e.
“breakeven at mine”).
The top line revenues is a straightforward calculation of sales ounce by average received price.
6
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2
U$/oz
AISC/oz
realized gold price
NB: CUT DOWN Y-AXIS source: SGI
SGI: Revenues vs Costs
4.92 5.13 6.13 3.33 6.62 8.92 0.82 0.82 5.62 7.32 0.52 2.42 2.72 6.52 4.72 1.72 2.13 9.62 4.43 5.92 2.43 3.82 8.73 4.92 2.03 7.62 5.13 5.13
5.33
0.13
0.14
0.13
45
40
35
30
25
20 15
10
5
0
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
U$m
Revenues COGS
source: company filings

As for the costs, here are two breakdown charts that show the main points. Below left is the
overall breakdown including the main cost item, mining costs that cam in at U$16.013m and
were very much in line with previous quarters. That’s a decent result despite the slightly lower
production scope in the quarter and means SGI is keeping inflation under reasonable control.
This Fly-In-Fly-Out mine is always going to have higher costs per ounce than others, the bright
side to that is how the fixed costs don’t fluctuate as much as for other operations. As
processing (U$5.399m) and DD&A (U$2.241m) came in as expected, we move our eyes to
“other” as that total made for a big jump and accounts for nearly all the higher costs noted
above in the total.
SGI: Op Costs Breakdown
“Other” is made up of three items and I’ve included thumbnail charts for each one below. In the
case of 2q22, the combination of Site Services” which came in expensive, at $0.5m higher than
our model. Gold Royalty was slightly higher, but the big difference came form the Changfe in
Inventory as the ounces hung over from 1q22 were sold in Q2; inventory drop accordingly.
The reason 1q22 came in low is the same reason 2q22
came in high but as gold inventories are now back at
the low end of their normal range, this is a one-off
effects on overall costs and that means 3q22 and
beyond should come in lower. Not a bad thing.
So with revenues and mine COGS all-but cancelling
each other out in 2q22, the difference between the
gross and mine operating earnings is the U$2.462
spent on G&A and exploration, which brings op-inc in
at a loss of U$2.525m:
7
49.51 993.41 336.41 563.51 384.61 685.41 326.61 332.61 384.61 658.61 310.61
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2
U$m other SGI: "Other" costs
Depr & Amort
processing
mining
source: SGI filings
358.2 335.2 196.1 732.2
669.3 379.3 982.4 601.4
986.5
842.2
978.7
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2
U$m
source: company filings
SGI: site services
58.1 41.3 74.3 88.3 85.3 33.4 64.4
5
4
3
2 1
0
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2
U$m SGI: gold royalty
source: company filings
88.0 97.0 78.0 78.0 88.0 7.0 79.0
1.1
0.9
0.7
0.5 0.3
0.1
-0.1 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2
U$m SGI: change in inventory
source: company filings
32.1 40.0
60.0-
46.0- 32.1 97.2-
54.2
3
2
1
0 -1
-2
-3
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2
U$m
source: company filings
SGI: Gold Inventory
5.5
5
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2
dore on hand U$m
gold in circuit
source: company filings
SGI: Revenues and operating earnings, per qtr
870.3- 92.2- 803.4- 619.3-
411.1 324.0- 793.0-
548.1-
412.2 927.2 826.3
489.5
144.1 525.2-
0
5.7
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
U$m
Revenues Op income
source: company filings

Here’s the final P+L chart for the day, which shows operating, pre-tax and net income per
quarter. This visual along with a few of the charts above have included the revised model for
3q22 and 4q22 earnings and we’ll get to those in a moment, here were acknowledge that the
final U$1.99m net loss for the quarter was only $0.5m larger than the house estimate of a
$1.5m loss, but that’s more a case of being right for the wrong reasons. The big difference
between our theory and last week’s reality was the Approx U$3m extra on costs and a modest
tax rebate on the quarter cannot paper over that.
SGI: Operating, pre-tax and net earnings
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
8
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
U$m
Op income
pre-tax income
Net income
source: SGI filings
Before considering our revised forecasts for the next two quarters we check out the balance
sheet items as there are two weak points that need addressing. While overall assets and
liabilities remain reasonable and the capex/sustaining capex work done bolstered totals
SGI: Assets
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
…the uptick in accounts payable was unusual, enough so that I quizzed CEO Chris Jordaan on
the way it had risen by perhaps $3.6m over the norm. The central question was whether Q2
was an anomaly or whether this is a new normal
and his answer was the right one; it was likely to
be a one-off. We know Q2 was a difficult period
for the company and due to outside issues (Covid,
staffing, inflation, supply chains, etc) the asset
didn’t perform as the proverbial well-oiled
machine. That’s allowable for a quarter and the company is guiding for better in the second half of
the year, but we’re now at the stage where
corporate finance reorganization (under duress) is
a latent risk.
This shows in the second weak point chart,
working capital (below left). While Cash&Eq
(below right) remains reasonable and there’s no liquidity problems on the immediate horizon,
working cap of just U$2.017m is well short of our pre-earnings estimate of U$9m. A
combination of smaller reasons made for that low total, including how SGI applied cash to
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
U$m fixed SGI: Liabilities Breakdown per qtr
other current 80
cash & eq
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
source: SGI filings
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
U$m LT liab
current liab
source: company filings
SGI: Accounts payable only
20.61 48.01 93.11 99.21 85.51 1.51 77.41 12.51 85.51 40.51
49.81
51 51
20
18
16
14
12
10 8 6
4
2
0
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
$m
source: SGI filings

sustaining capital works, left accounts payable to climb, plus the inventories drawdown. As cash
is in good shape there’s no immediate danger BUT (and there’s always a but) this smaller gold
mining operation is now allowed to have a string of poor results in the future any longer. At the
end of last year it had a financial cushion on its balance sheet, but the way in which 1q22 and
2q22 have both come in under guidance means there’s not so much wriggle room left on SGI’s
financials.
Please don’t get me wrong, I’m not hitting the panic button yet and I’m still a holder of this
company’s shares but at the same time, 3q22 and
4q22 are now more important than they were. The
new lower guidance for the quarters will allow SGI to
do its thing and prepare for the promised
100k/annum run rate it expects for 2023, but we’re
now at the point where it has to deliver a couple of
in-line quarters, there’s no grace period left. We still
assume the current share count remains (right) and
the company isn’t about to raise new capital, but
with the drop in working capital along with its
continued execution on capital works for the
upcoming production growth phase there are no
more second chances.
Our revised forecasts for 3q22 and 4q22
The revised guidance, the company outlook plus listening to SGI CEO Jordaan over two calls
last week results in new production and sales assumptions for the next two quarters. In a
moment I’m going to refer you above to a couple of the financial charts already shown, first the
production and cash cost/oz visuals
SGI gold production and sales
9
40522
73932
00971 99881 05861 63551 29451 55851 83571 99091 28291
34112
32851 62761 00091
00532
25000
22500
20000
17500
15000
12500
10000
7500
5000
2500
0
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
30 SGI: Cash treasury per qtr
27.5
25
22.5
20
17.5
15
12.5
10
7.5
5
2.5
0
Oz Au Au prod
Au sold
source: SGI data
The above assumptions of 19,000oz production/sales for 3q22 and 23,500oz for 4q22 bring the
annual 2022 annual total to just over 75,000 oz gold and at the top end of the new guidance
range. At this point it might be safer to aim lower, but one of the more positive comments to
come out of the ConfCall/Webcast duo was to hear that the company still expects to leave 2022
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
source: company filings/IKN ests
srallod
fo
snoillim
14 SGI: Working Capital per qtr
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
-12
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
source company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
SGI: Shares Out 140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
source: company filings
serahs
fo
snoillim

at almost the previous target run rate of 100k/annum. So as well as hitting the ground running
next year, it indicates a return to the production levels we require from this company in 4q22
and as such, I’m willing to stick my analytical neck out a little and assume SGI has dragged the
new guidance level down to a level that allows it to aim for the top end of the new range.
In our basic model, we assume a flat U$1.750/oz gold price for the second half of 2022, while
AISC is likely to remain high in 3q22 as the company continues investment in capital works.
Come 4q22 CEO Jordaan mentioned during the webcast Thursday that the target was a little
under U$1,500/oz and that sounds correct enough at this stage.
SGI: Avg received Au price vs AISC, per qtr
2100
2000
1900
1800
1700
1600
1500
1400
1300
1200
1100
1000
900
800
10
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
U$/oz
AISC/oz
realized gold price
NB: CUT DOWN Y-AXIS source: SGI
This chart shows the margin between AISC and received price per quarter and makes things
easier to spot. We see the recently messy 2q22, the
SGI: margin realized Au vs AISC
assumed slight improvement in 3q22 and then back
500
to a healthier difference in 4q22 as the better gold 400
production cadence dilutes the unavoidable fixed 300
200
costs of the FIFO operation.
100
0
From here I now point you back up the report to the -100
-200
previous charts that include forward estimates and
-300
as seen: -400
 For 3q22, revenues of U$33.5m and costs of
U$31m result in what we expect to be a
breakeven quarter for pre-tax earnings
 For 4q22, revenues of U$41m get the company back on track and with costs assumed
at the same U$31m, once G&A is backed out operating earnings comes in at U$7.5m
 We expect the balance sheet to clean up slightly in Q3, more so in Q4 and while it’s not
hard-and-fast to see accounts payable back at U$15m immediately, we definitely want
that by the end of this year.
 Meanwhile, liquidity should improve even in 3q22, with working cap expected to bounce
back to around U$5.5m, then things improve further as higher production and sales
arrive and working cap move back to U$11m approx.
All this means setting one’s sights lower for SGI as regards the rest of 2022. In some respects
that’s okay, because the real investment thesis around this stock has always been the
production growth and acceleration to a 100k oz/year run rate by the end of this year and then
accelerating further as 2023 rolls out. As long as 3q22 goes well enough to allow the
acceleration to happen in Q4 then fine, but there are two obvious downsides to the situation, as
well as the obvious third one about having an average cost price of 95c when I could have
bought in for the first time at 50c last week:
 We’ve lost two quarters of growth, mostly due to bad luck but the loss is the same and
we’re now six months behind on the original plans.
 SGI cannot afford another weak quarter and is now obliged to make good on its
promised improvement in Q3 and Q4. Execution risk is up due to 1q22 and 2q22.
81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
U$/oz
source: SGI filings, IKN ests

Which begs the obvious question as to why we should hang around in this trade for the next
two quarters, as surely there’s a reasonable risk-adjusted path of first selling and then perhaps
returning if SGI makes good on its revised production schedule. With the state of the markets
the way they are, there are clearly a lot of other traders thinking that way and the total lack of
dip-buying on last week’s sell-off shows the lack of appetite in the market today.
The answer to that is leverage. As with all and any high cash cost producer, the tipping point of
profitability is always closer to the underlying spot price and sharp fluctuations in the gold price
make big differences to the earnings potential of the company. To model that for SGI in the two
quarters left in 2022 I’ve put together a (somewhat busy) calc table that shows what happens if
SGI performs as per our revised model, but at different gold prices:
 We assume 19,000 oz gold produced and sold in 3q22 at an AISC of U$1,700/oz
 We assume 23,500 oz gold produced and sold in 4q22 at an AISC of U$1,500/oz
 We assume 123.135m shares out
Then those criteria get average gold prices of between U$1,500/oz and U$2,000/oz, with the
baseline being our U$1,750/oz assumption as seen above:
Superior Gold (SGI.v): Gold price sensitivity to earnings potential in the next two quarters
Au price Q3 revs at Q4 revs at Total revs Tot revs per 3q22 oper. 4q22 oper. Total earnings
per oz U$ 19Koz Au (U$m) 23.5Koz Au (U$m) 2h22(U$m) share 2h22 earnings/share earnings/share per share2h22
1500 28.5 35.25 63.75 0.518 -0.031 0.000 -0.031
1600 30.4 37.6 68 0.552 -0.015 0.019 0.004
1700 32.3 39.95 72.25 0.587 0.000 0.038 0.038
1750 33.25 41.125 74.375 0.604 0.008 0.048 0.055
1800 34.2 42.3 76.5 0.621 0.015 0.057 0.073
1900 36.1 44.65 80.75 0.656 0.031 0.076 0.107
2000 38 47 85 0.690 0.046 0.095 0.142
source: IKN calcs from SGI data
If you take a minute to get the hang of the table, you’ll see that total revenues in either U$m or
per share (yellow section) don’t change that much as the gold price moves up or down from the
U$1,750/oz baseline. However the light blue (I think that’s blue) section applies those cash cost
criteria and on a per share basis, just U$150/oz improves operating earnings per share by
almost 300% in 3q22, or if you prefer a U$2,000/oz gold price turns SGI into a 9.5c operating
earnings per quarter mining company…not bad for a 50c stock price.
The reason to like SGI today is that there’s plenty of upside reward to offset the risk,
particularly at these beaten down prices. For an easier visual of the same dataset, this chart
uses the 3q22 and 4q22 operating earnings per share data:
SGI Earnings sensitivity/share at assumed production and costs,
Op EPS varying gold prices
0.10
0.09
0.08 3q22 op earnings/share
0.07 4q22 op earnings/share
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
0.00
-0.01
-0.02
-0.03
-0.04
1500 1600 1700 1750 1800 1900 2000
source: IKN calcs from SGI data
At U$1,700/oz, as long as SGI delivers on guidance and costs, it will break even in 3q22 and
then return a small profit in Q4, which would be enough to see it improve as it begins its real
growth period in 2023. But notably, below U$1,700/oz means we’d be in for another loss-
making quarter and that may be one too many for a company that’s had its share of misfortune
11

already this year. Conversely, if gold prices push higher the leverage SGI offers on its high
average cash cost means its profits in per-share terms becomes juicy quickly for such a low-
priced stock.
Discussion and conclusion
I made a big mistake last week and sadly, it’s one that archetype value investors such as I a
prone to making, a classic weak flank. On witnessing the 10%-or-so drop in SGI in July on the
company’s production numbers, I jumped to the conclusion that while weak, the “numbers are
now baked in” and though the company was set to return a mediocre quarter, the market was
area of that and wouldn’t punish the stock price unduly.
No. Dumb. Wrong. Stupid, stupid, stupid me.
I really should have known better. While SGI’s quarter was arguably “the lower end of in-line”
with slightly higher than expected costs and balance sheet adjustments that have crimped
working capital at least temporarily, the near-25% sell-off was a lot to stomach after the stock
had already adjusted for the same set of numbers in July. Part of the issue is of course the poor
sentiment for miners and juniors at the moment, plus of course the reporting day was
unfortunate to coincide with a sharp down day for gold and the sector. Under other
circumstances, I’d expect SGI to bounce back to at least the 65c to 70c level in the days ahead,
but not at the moment. The lack of buyers at all levels means a beaten-up small producer that’s
just filed another mediocre quarter won’t get much attention and unless the market turns, I
can’t see this company making a rebound in the next few weeks.
However and despite that, I’m not a seller of this position and those of you looking for a
risk/reward proposition in the gold space may even consider making some quiet entry trades at
this price. The value proposition is obvious and although the risk of the company returning a
third poor quarter and causing itself real financial damage is now real, as long as it executes on
the new guidance there are two obvious ways forward. Firstly with the gold pri9ce leverage at
this point; yes it’s the classic double-edged sword and if gold drops any further, this company
becomes a loss-maker come what may. However, the gold bulls in the house can get plenty of
upside leverage with SGI at this price point. The second way forward is to assume a relatively
flat gold price and then see SGI deliver on production and cash costs, thereby leaving 2022 at
the nearly-100k oz per year run rate it promised to achieve at the start of 2022. From there,
2023 then looks far more interesting and as long as the gold price holds and inflation doesn’t
eat away all the margin, SGI’s future will look a lot rosier than it does this weekend.
We knew 2q22 wouldn’t be a great quarter and while slightly worse than expected, it wasn’t as
bad as last week’s market reaction would have you believe. The company needs to deliver on
its new and lower 2022 guidance, that is the main risk for the rest of the year and it’s the type
of risk one runs when buying into a single asset junior producer. Luck plays a part and SGI
suffered from a couple of doses of the bad variety in the first half of the year, but the new team
is still the same one that has taken the technical data at Plutonic by the scruff of the neck and
made the improvements required to improve grade, mine dilution and resource continuation.
While those holding through (e.g. me) or taking advantage of these low prices to build a
position (maybe you) shouldn’t bank on an immediate rebound during this calm period for
juniors, as long as gold doesn’t cave in price and the company delivers from now until the end
of the year, this should do well and then even better as 2023 rolls out. A tough week for SGI,
but I’m willing and able to hold through for better times…just give us a decent Q3, guys.
Stocks to Follow
For backdrop and context, the week-over-week price changes in ETF proxies for gold bullion
(GLD down 3.07%), PM miners (GDX down 7.2%) and junior miners (GDXJ down 9.3%) give a
good idea of the bad time had by just about all the sector and its stocks. The combination of
the August Doldrums (now well and truly confirmed), a downturn in gold, the mining sector’s
12

continued negative sentiment and the return of the Plain Vanilla Recession narrative weighed
heavily on our sector of focus and there was no escape for this portfolio of juniors, either.
Grasping at straws means I kick off by noting that three stocks remained unchanged on the
week (QCCU.v, XYZ.v, MENE.v) and while all the others went lower, only two dropped by a
double figure percentage amount. And that’s the end of the silver linings, it was a very
depressing week for juniors and apathy and losses were the norm, all capped off with the nasty
knee-jerk reaction the market gave to Superior Gold (SGI.v down 25.4%) and its quarter,
posted Wednesday and Altiplano (APN.v down 18.2%) which bounces between a wide bid/ask
and saw the last trade at the low end. That’s apathy for you, too.
Still only 16 covered stocks and of those, I’m long eleven of them. Only two in the green and on
looking back six months, I’m glad to have taken profits on Copper Mountain when I did.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.465 121.4% $1.14 tgt, #1 idea on FY22 dev
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Amerigo Res ARG.to STR BUY C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.13 -16.9% Cheap Cu, low downside risk
Superior Gold SGI.v STR BUY C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.50 -47.4% Au prod jr, Q2 report this week
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v BUY C$0.275 25-Apr-21 C$0.145 -47.3% Now drilling. Easy hold
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v HOLD C$0.83 22-Apr-18 C$0.135 -83.7% Downgrade on permit denial
SPECULATIVE TRADES
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v SPEC BUY C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$2.23 -27.4% Au leverage, small trade so far
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v BUY C$0.72 16-May-21 C$0.77 6.9% hole 221 may give boost
Palamina Corp PA.v SPEC BUY C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.10 -66.1% Au expl in S.Peru
Altiplano Metals APN.v HOLD C$0.31 17-Sep-21 C$0.18 -41.9% Cheap entry, plan on track.
Minera IRL MIRL.cse hold C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.095 -51.3% CEO change will move stock
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
Newcore Gold NCAU.v WATCH C$0.51 20-Mar-22 C$0.27 -47.1% potential gold exploreco trade
Electra Battery ELBM.v WATCH C$5.31 20-Mar-22 C$4.59 -13.6% potential battery metals play
Anacortes Mining XYZ.v WATCH C$0.49 22-Jul-22 C$0.46 -6.1% potential gold exploreco trade
Goldshore Res GSHR.v WATCH C$0.33 22-Jul-22 C$0.30 -9.1% potential gold exploreco trade
Western Copper WRN.to SPEC BUY C$2.41 20-Mar-22 C$1.80 -25.3% potential copper trade
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.66 6-Dec-20 C$0.55 -16.7% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
2015 to 2021 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for a few notes on some of the covered companies:
Goldshore Resources (GSHR.v): A ten-day chart of GSHR with the two words that sum it its
trading, and that of many other explorecos last week:
13

For a little more context here’s a second price chart and, while I could have used the 12 month
chart and show the extended period in which GSHR traded between 100,000 and 300,000
shares per day on a very regular basis, instead I’ll limit the zoom-out to the last three months
and just take in the last sell-off period, in June:
That is nobody’s idea of “buying the dip”, there’s a modest reaction to the tail-end of the sell-
off period, a standard oversold reaction. Appetite for juniors is in the dumpster and GSHR is a
pitch-perfect example of the apathy out there.
Minera Alamos (MAI.v): Our Top Pick traded softly last week, trading as low as 44c on
selling dumps before bargain hunters bought in:
A reminder that MAI reports its 2q22 this week and I’m confident this set of financials goes
better than that of SGI last week. We know Q2 wasn’t a massive production quarter, but we
also know MAI will be ramping Santana to the long-awaited commercial production during 3q22
and that it has plenty of cash and liquidity for its plans at Cerro de Oro.
Mene Inc (MENE.v): Unchanged last week, we owe an update on MENE as it has now closed
14

on its production facility purchase. I’ll wait for Q2 to drop and use the RegFs provided to give a
better and more informed overview when they arrive3.
Aldebaran Resources (ALDE.v): we finally got the NR out of ALDE on the long hole #221
on Thursday 18th August. There was a slight correction to the data published on Friday 19th
post-close (9), in which the start point of the mineralization were altered slightly, but nothing
major changed and the main grades and widths information was as such. We also have a
webinar conference tomorrow midday Americas time in which Kevin Heather is going to walk us
through holes #220 and #221 to explain why they are so significant, register for that shows
here (10). As for the holes, here’s the assay table…
…and this visual is one from the NR that shows the main success, hold #221:
Clearly, the location of that long hole combined with the previous 3D resistivity test results open
up Altar to the potential of becoming a much bigger, larger and deeper deposit. While grades
weren’t any different from the normal returns from Altar, the dimensions make #221 a possible
game-changer for the project.
As for hole #220, while that wasn’t collared optimally it still hit enough mineralization to expand
the Altar footprint to the South-East and begs more and better long holes to test that
extension. Again, there’s a potential to add serious tonnage and importantly, expand the
eventual conceptual pit shell to allow in the deeper mineralization found by hole #221.
QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v): I understand QCCU has news out this coming week that was
planned to hit last week, but got delayed for unknown reasons. I don’t know the content of the
NR either, I just know that CEO Stephen Stewart thinks enough of the content to tell me to
watch the wires.
Electra Battery Materials (ELBM.v): Though ELBM hasn’t taken off in the way it threatened
15

to do in the first weeks of this trade and last week admitted its cost rise, there’s a reason why I
like this stock and will continue to watch its progress with a view to entering on a trade, if
circumstances prevail. This is part of the reason:
Mark:
Hope you are well. To the extent that you have been following Electra’s disclosure of late, I would
welcome any candid feedback you may have to offer. I am always open to learning/improving
and yours is a discerning eye… In truth, I am feeling quite upbeat about the next few months but
companies are built over months, quarters and years. We disclosed timeline and capex setbacks
in Q2 results last week (which sucks) but I am still very confident we will deliver on our strategy.
Regards,
Trent
That mail popped up in my mailbox unannounced last week and aside from the lame attempt to
blow smoke up my derriere, it shows the integral and open way the ELBM CEO Trent Mell
operates. While other CEOs will do anything they can to keep potential or actual reverses and
weaknesses away from the eyes of the market, there are a chosen few that will openly discuss
them to find different perspectives and views, all in an attempt to find solutions (or at least
ideas they can then discard).
The Copper Basket
After thirty-three weeks of 2022, The Copper Basket shows a loss of 45.06% level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/22 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Copper Mtn CMMC.to 3.42 210.166 329.96 1.57 -54.1%
2 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.77 88.118 289.03 3.28 -13.0%
3 Western Copper WRN.to 2.00 151.451 272.61 1.80 -10.0%
4 Oroco Res OCO.v 2.04 203.4 183.06 0.90 -50.5%
5 Nevada Copper NCU.to 0.71 448.437 136.77 0.305 -60.6%
6 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.84 138.401 106.57 0.77 -8.3%
7 Meridian Min MNO.to 1.18 153.735 95.32 0.62 -47.5%
8 Hot Chili HCH.v 1.53 109.223 72.09 0.66 -56.9%
9 Regulus Res. REG.v 1.06 101.85 68.24 0.67 -36.8%
10 Kutcho Copper KC.v 0.88 103.94 33.26 0.32 -64.8%
11 C3 Metals CCCM.v 0.16 645.379 29.04 0.045 -65.6%
12 Doré Copper DCMC.v 0.79 66.123 26.78 0.405 -49.4%
13 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.58 79.24 25.36 0.32 -47.4%
14 QC Copper QCCU.v 0.34 129.06 18.71 0.145 -57.4%
15 Coast Copper COCO.v 0.13 41.335 2.69 0.065 -50.0%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg -45.06%
The components of The Copper Basket were pulled in different directions last week, with some
benefiting from the underlying resilience in the
The Copper Basket 2022, weekly evolution
price of the metal and others getting hit by the 10%
selling in the juniors sub-sector. There were six 0%
winners on the week (MARI.to, NCU.to, MNO.to, -10%
KC.v, DCMC.v, ECU.v) including the biggest -20%
winner, Meridian Mining (MNO.to up 26.5%).
-30%
Two remained unchanged (QCCU.v, COCO.v) and
-40%
that leaves seven losers (CMMC.to, OCO.v,
-50%
WRN.to, HCH.v, REG.v, CCCM.v, ALDE.v)
-60%
including large percentage losses taken by Hot
Chili (HCH.v down 22.4%), C3Metals (CCCM.v
down 18.2%), Oroco (OCO.v down 10.9%),
Regulus (REG.v down 10.7%) and Copper Mountain (CMMC.to down 9.3%). There were more
16
ts1naJ ht9naJ ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6bef ht31 ht02 ht72 t6raM ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3rpA ht01 ht71 ht42 1yam ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5nuj ht21 ht91 ht62 dr3yluj ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 t7gua ht41 ts12
source: IKN calcs

larger losers which sent the overall average down by a percentage point. Before moving on,
there is now a case for setting aside three of the stocks on our list as “least worst”, as
Aldebaran, Western and Marimaca have done better than the “lost half” companies and are
down by more modest amounts so far this year.
Considering the hit taken by the price of gold, silver and other underlying commodities, the
reason for the better performance in this corner of the market than (I for one) expected is in
this chart:
Copper the metal managed to sail against headwinds and negative headlines, such as this
Reuters note that seems to have been collated by the reporter before Friday’s mini-rally (11).
The title line is “Copper heading for weekly fall on bleak global growth outlook” and here’s how
it begins:
Copper prices rose on Friday but were set to end the week slightly lower as traders
balanced hopes for solid demand in China with pessimism about the global economy.
Inflation data in Germany and Japan on Friday and statements from European and
U.S. central bankers this week suggest that rapid, economically damaging interest rate
rises will continue.
Investors turned cautious, pushing down global equities and driving up the U.S. dollar
– pressuring dollar-priced metals by making them costlier for buyers with other
currencies.
Many analysts expect recessions in Europe and the United States and slower growth
elsewhere, including in China, the biggest metals consumer.
However, China is widely expected to lower its benchmark lending rates on Monday
and has pledged other stimulus to support its economy.
And its copper market looks tight. Yangshan copper import premiums surged to $107 a
tonne, from less than $10 in March, suggesting greater appetite for overseas metal.
And in fact that onshore premium continued to spike on Friday, rising above the benchmark
U$107/tonne that was originally set in December 2021 for the year ahead. That the premium
people are willing to pay for a tonne of copper in
China has risen so sharply is all about the
continuance of real world demand compared to a
crimped supply (12). According to local Chinese
bizwire Shanghai Metals Market (13) last week,
inventories dropped on the mainland due to 1)
power rationing hitting local smelters 2) the
continued rolling pandemic causing logistics issues
and 3) imports of copper were due to arrive at
port in the week have been delayed. That headline
may have been somewhat misleading but it’s
hardly a panacea of bullishness out there either.
This brief wire note summed up sentiment as well
as any (14) and even the normally bearish Robin
17

Bahr sees things past there worst
Low inventories and hopes for Chinese demand should put a floor under prices, said
independent analyst Robin Bhar. “China’s the key,” he said, predicting copper would
end 2022 at around $7,500 a tonne.
Later in the same note, this also sounds about right:
Increased Chinese infrastructure spending and support for the property sector should
help metals but “the upside looks limited”, said analysts at ANZ.
The fundies underlying the spike in Yangshan copper import premiums show in our next
dataset, the regular weekly look at world copper inventories with data as usual from Cochilco:
 After last week’s small rebound, world copper stocks went back to their standard
seasonal depletion routine with all three of the official world systems losing tonnage
from warehouses. By Friday, the aggregate total was down by 20,433 metric tonnes
(mt) to close the week at 205,070mt.
 The main event was at the SHFE once again, which lost a whopping 10,606mt from its
already low inventory and closed Friday at 31,205mt. That’s almost the record low we
saw last January and we’re still four months
from the standard annual low point in the
SHFE’s stocks cycle.
 The LME lost 8,205mt from its system to
close the week at 123,825mt, which is lower but remains in the recent trading range. As
for the continued monitoring of cancelled
warrants (which is supposed to track what
may happen next), that total dropped by just
over a thousand tonnes to close at
41,900mt.
 At the Comex, inventories dropped by a modest 1,802mt to close at 50,040mt. No
biggie.
Here are the dedicated SHFE charts and to reiterate, its stocks continue to scrape the bottom of
the barrel:
Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2014 to date
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
18
31'13ceD dr32 ht02 ht51 ht01 ht5tco ht03 ht52 dn22 ht71 ht21 ht6pes ts1von 5102ht72ced ts12 ht71 ht21 ht7guA dn2tcO ht4ceD ht92 ht62 ts12 ht61 ht01 7102
ht5von
ts13 ht52 dn22 ht42 ht91 ht41 ht9 9102
dr3bef
ts13 ht62 ts12 ht51 ht01 0202ht5naj 0202ts1ram ht62 ts12 ht61 ht11 0202ht6ced ts13 ht82 dr32 ht81 ht21 ht7 2202dn2naj ht72 ht42 ht91 ht41
LME: Cu tonnage under cancelled warrant
Mt Cu
|
source: Cochilco
00142 52074 57334 00714 52045 05205 52027 52418 52926 05694 57332 52271 05761 52511 57471 52581 52862 00642
00743
57924 00914
100000
90000
80000
70000
60000
50000 40000 30000
20000
10000
0
dr3rpa ht01 ht71 ht42 1.yam ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5nuj ht21 ht91 ht62 dr3yluj ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7gua ht41 ts12
mt Cu
source: Cochilco
SHFE copper inventory levels, 2018 to 2022
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
MT Cu 2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
source: Cochilco data

Now for some notes on a couple of our basket stocks:
Hot Chili (HCH.v) (HCH.ax): It went up the week before last, it went down this week.
The net result over two weeks is about +5% on the more liquid Australian ticker and it’s up to
you to decide whether that’s good or bad. Those that bought the pump last Tuesday will
probably pick the latter.
Meridian Mining (MNO.to): This stock bounced
higher for no particular reason, aside from a
sudden lack of sellers. We did get a new corporate
presentation on Monday (15) which included a
reminder via the Work Program slide that the
initial 43-101 compliant resource for Cabaçal is
due to happen at the end of this quarter. As
drilling has continued at the site, we can therefore
assume a final set of assays should be announced
soon, followed by in Indicated+Inferred resource
at the end of September.
MNO has taken a beating this year, much like the
rest of them, but last week’s rally put it on the
better side of the “lost half” grouping. We’ve also
seen this company make price moves previous to
assay NRs, so an eye on the wires for next week.
Regulus Resources (REG.v): Another with a
new corporate presentation last week, this one
dated Wednesday August 17th, but in the case of
REG we saw selling instead of buying and a new
low for the year as (what looks like) one medium-
sized seller decided to liquidate on Friday.
As long as the seller doesn’t continue on Monday
and into the week ahead, I’d expect the price to
snap back to where it was. As for the new slideshow (16), I couldn’t help but notice that its
pitch for AntaKori includes the implied assumption that neighbour Coimolache SA needs
AntaKori in order to develop its stage two “Tantahuatay Sulfuros” project. As well as baptizing
the aggregate zone “Tantakori” by combining the two names Tantahuatay and AntaKori and
asserting “AntaKori and Tantahuatay Sulphides are adjacent to one another and together form
the Tantakori Copper-Gold Deposit” (you have to wonder whether Raul Benavides would ever
say that word out loud), slide 12 is where how REG.v makes its case for the eventual JV:
19

 Operating an oxide heap leach mine that needs to transition to sulphide operation to
avoid closure in 2027/2028
 • Large copper-gold sulphide resource beneath the oxide mine
 • Significant portions of higher-grade mineralization near AntaKori claims, which would
likely not be accessible in an open-pit without integrating the two properties
 • Has publicly stated that evaluations have been completed on stand alone operations
at 20k TPD and 60k TPD
 • Unlikely either option could be optimally designed without integrating AntaKori
 • Indicated a PFS likely to begin sometime in 2023
The devil is in the details. Point three tries to make the case that without REG and AntaKori, the
Coimolache plans would miss out on significant high grade mineral, then point five backs that
up by using qualifiers such as “unlikely” and “optimally”. While this desk does not disagree with
those statements as written, the immediate
question would be “define optimally” because
Coimolache’s big holder and operator,
Buenaventura (BVN), has already stated for the
record that it plans to move forward on its
Tantahuatay Sulfuros project using 100% owned
concessions, be the initial stage of production
20ktpd (likely the expansion and deepening of the
current open pit) or 60ktpd which would include the
open pit zone and wholly owned territories to the
North-West of the current open pit. This February
2021 statement (17) couldn’t be clearer and status
(translated), “On this matter, (the company) stated
that it is a independent business case with 60,000
tonnes of copper mineral per day, inside the concessions of Compañía Minera Coimolache.”
That runs against the marketing suggestions in REG literature and is the basic problem; BVN
doesn’t need them. Perhaps they’d like them, and eventually yes, I’d expect that at some point
the Coimolache mine would grow either by capex expansion or by simple exhaustion of known
resources, but that could literally be decades away and in that time BVN can ignore its
neighbour if it decides to do so. What’s more, we’re not likely to get a massive mine built in one
shot at Tantahuatay/AntaKori, considering the preferred bootstrap nature of the project and
BVN’s own treasury depth; they simply don’t have the multi-billions required to build the next
Antamina without going through earlier and smaller mining phases.
The Producer Basket
After thirty-three weeks of 2022, the Producer Basket shows a loss of 18.08% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/22 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 62.02 797.44 34.71 43.53 -29.8%
2 Barrick GOLD 19.00 1779 28.59 16.07 -15.4%
3 Franco-Nevada FNV 138.29 191.192 24.58 128.58 -7.0%
4 Agnico Eagle AEM 53.14 454.904 19.89 43.72 -17.7%
5 Wheaton PM WPM 42.93 450.3 14.39 31.95 -25.6%
6 Gold Fields GFI 10.99 887.72 7.69 8.66 -21.2%
7 Kinross Gold KGC 5.81 1296.5 4.56 3.52 -39.4%
8 B2Gold BTG 3.93 1055.6 3.46 3.28 -16.5%
9 Alamos Gold AGI 7.69 392.503 2.96 7.55 -1.8%
10 Sandstorm SAND 6.20 191.4 1.11 5.81 -6.3%
All prices and stock quotes in U$ Port. avg -18.08%
20

Last week ten winners out of ten, this week ten losers out of ten and indicative of the market in
which we operate at the moment. The losers ranged from least worst Kinross (KGC down 2.2%)
and Franco-Nevada (FNV down 3.6%) to most worst Sandstorm (SAND down 9.2%) and Gold
Fields (GFI down 8.0%) and in general terms we had a continuation of the standard “the lower
the market cap the more volatile the movement.” As for a redeeming feature, it’s nobody’s idea
of a big deal but we did better (less worse) than GDX so, for the first time this year, our group
of ten has a meaningful advantage over the benchmark.
The 2022 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
35% comparative to GDX control
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%
Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM): For the second occasion in recent times, we see WPM
stepping away from one of its streamer/royalty positions in exchange for a payment. The first
was its deal announced July 5th with Hecla (HL) to give up its rights to the stream on the KHSD
mine in Canada’s Yukon, owned by Alexco Resource Corp (AXU) and now in the process of
being bought out by HL. Last week we had a second deal of the same ilk when on August 18th,
WPM announced that Glencore has agreed to pay WPM to walk from its Yauliyacu mine (aka
Los Quenuales) in Peru. The deals are similar in several ways; first HL has agreed to pay WPM
C$135m in shares and Glencore has agreed on paying WPM U$150m in cash. Second, the
rationale for the two deals is similar as the stream buyouts allow the parent companies to close
deals to sell the assets. Even the NRs announcing the deals were similar, with only the last four
words changing (18) (19):
 Wheaton Precious Metals Enters Into Agreement To Terminate Its Existing Silver Stream
In The Keno Hill Silver District
 Wheaton Precious Metals Enters Into Agreement To Terminate Its Existing Silver Stream
On The Yauliyacu Mine
While WPM was quick to talk up how import the Yauliyacu stream was in the early growth
stages of the company, these days both it and the KHSD deal size are relatively small stuff next
to the entirety of the streamer giant and its
U$14Bn+ market cap. That reflected in the way the
stock price traded through the two news events
(right), as there was barely a blip compared to the
GDX benchmark (though you may argue that a
defensive play such as a streaming company should
out-perform the GDX).
We also got a video interview with WPM CEO Randy
Smallwood on Kitco last week in which he
addressed the recent market and in particular,
made mention of the situation in Chile and the
permitting refusal on Rio2 Ltd’s (RIO.v) Fenix mine
(which we know about already, sadly enough).
Here’s the link to watch the clip (20) and here’s an excerpt from the blurb:
Smallwood was disappointed with Rio2's Fexix project being halted. Wheaton has a
streaming and royalty agreement with Rio2 and its Chile-based operation. Last month
Rio2 learned that its environmental impact assessment was not approved.
21
ts1naJ ht9naJ ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6bef ht31 ht02 ht72 t6ram ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3rpa ht01 ht71 ht42 1yam ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5nuj ht21 ht91 ht62 dr3luj ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7 ht41 ts12
The 2022 Producer Basket: Percentage difference
5.0% between GDX benchmark & basket (negative = IKN ahead)
ikn
4.0%
gdx control
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
source: NYSE, IKN Calcs
ts1naJ ht9naJ ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6bef ht31 ht02 ht72 t6ram ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3rpa ht01 ht71 ht42 1yam ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5nuj ht21 ht91 ht62 dr3luj ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7 ht41 ts12
source: IKN calcs, NYSE data

"We've been a bit shocked, and I think the entire industry has been a bit shocked at
how Chile has turned out," said Smallwood noting that six of the last eight mining
expansions have been denied, since the country's change in government.
Arguably nothing more than a dose of cold comfort, but it is notable to see how even the
largest and (presumably) most connected of mining companies have also been blindsided by
the attitude taken by Chilean government authorities since the Boric government came to
power. However, it’s also fair to say by inference that WPM is sympathetic to the RIO.v cause
and as the main financial sponsor of the company and project, that bodes well for the junior as
it looks to find a firmer, long-term financial footing after its permitting setback.
The TinyCaps List
After thirty-three weeks of 2022, the TinyCaps show a loss of 26.65% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/22 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Aurelius Min AUL.v 0.24 45.836 7.56 0.165 -31.3%
Golden Pursuit GDP.v 0.13 34.638 5.89 0.17 30.8%
Infield Min INFD.v 0.06 48.445 1.94 0.04 -33.3%
Kingfisher Met KFR.v 0.30 103.007 21.63 0.21 -30.0%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.12 57.686 6.06 0.105 -12.5%
Manitou Gold MTU.v 0.06 344.57 12.06 0.035 -41.7%
Melkior Res MKR.v 0.295 24.011 6.00 0.25 -15.3%
Precipitate Gold PRG.v 0.105 129.322 9.70 0.075 -28.6%
Signature Res SGU.v 0.07 238.4 5.96 0.025 -64.3%
Winshear Gold WINS.v 0.08 61.585 3.08 0.05 -37.5%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg -26.65%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $20m. They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a
little and allowed sub-U$20m market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, but it was a particularly depressing exercise to trawl through the whole of the TSXV and find companies
that are small enough, but with life in them. The vast majority of sub-$20m stocks are broken stocks, either
traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2020. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
As much luck as judgment, the TinyCaps List
15% TinyCaps, 2022 weekly tracker
managed to buck the general sector trend last
10%
week and gain ground on the basket average, 5%
recuperating as it did just under 2%. There were 0%
four winners (AUL.v, KFR.v, MKR.v, SGU.v), four -5%
-10%
unchanged prices (GDP.v, UNFD.v, MTU.v,
-15%
WINS.v) and two losers (LMS.v, WINS.v) from
-20%
our list of ten and while some of the moves were -25%
impressive, such as SGU up 25.0% and AUL up -30%
17.9%, traded volumes remain generally thin and -35%
the sector ignored. More on that below.
Aurelius Minerals (AUL.v): AUL moved up 17.9% on the week and good at face value, but a
more granular look at trading shows the precarity of the big percentage move:
22
dn2naJ ht9
naJ
ht61naJ dr32 ht03 ht6bef ht31 ht02 ht72 ht6ram ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3rpa ht01 ht71 ht42 ts1yam ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5nuj ht21 ht91 ht62 dr3yluj ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7gua ht41 ts12
source: IKN calcs, TSX data

That’s gossamer thin volume for that amount of gain, with less than C$5k of shares changing
hands the last three days of trading on no news.
Manitou Gold (MTU.v): The flipside of the AUL story last week is Manitou (MTU.v), which
saw its share price unchanged despite announcing
significant news and doing 1.5m of volume, with 1.1m
of those shares trading on the news.
That came on Wednesday (21) with the
announcement that MTU plans to spin out its nickel
(and cobalt) properties into a newco, provisionally
named Western Nickel. The spin-out will take some
time to happen and the company has promised
updates along the way, but here are the bullet point
highlights from the NR (see the whole release for
more):
 Intent to Spin-Out Ni-Co-PGE commodities at the Goudreau project into newly
incorporated subsidiary, Western Nickel, to realize full value of the Goudreau project.
 Western Nickel to become a publicly traded company.
 Immediate commencement of a 1,000 metre drill program as a direct follow-up to the
recent drill intersection of 0.25% Ni over 48 metres in MTU-22-14.
 Drill program to test strongest part of magnetic anomaly north of MTU-22-14 and a
separate 800 metre long ultramafic body located a short distance along strike to the west
The plan is straightforward and makes sense, considering that its large Km2 Goudreau property
is basically a gold target and in its last two NRs before last week, MTU had featured the
exploration success it had seen with Nickel intercepts. This will leave MTU to adhere to the
metal in its corporate title, offer value to shareholders (everyone likes “free shares”) and allow
it to keep a stake in any Ni or Co development by keeping 19.99% of shares of the newco.
MTU was down to under C$1m in working capital as at its last quarter (March 31st) and burns
around $1m a quarter, but in April it closed its deal (22) to sell four concessions (namely
Kenwest, Gaffney, Canamerica, and Sherridon) to a new privco named Dryden Gold. The terms
of that deal (copied from the 1q22 MD&A)…
 Dryden Gold Corp. (“Dryden Gold”). Under the terms of the Agreement, the consideration includes:
 Cash payment of $1,000,000 on the effective date and the issuance of 4,000,000 Dryden Gold shares (the
"Initial Payment") (cash payment of $100,000 was received during the three months ended March 31, 2022
and the remainder was received in April 2022, along with the Dryden Gold shares);
 $2,000,000 payable as 50% cash and 50% in Dryden Gold shares on the first anniversary of the effective
date;
 $2,000,000 payable as 50% cash and 50% in Dryden Gold shares on the second anniversary of the effective
date; and
 $2,000,000 payable as 50% cash and 50% in Dryden Gold shares on the third anniversary of the effective
date.
…mean MTU currently has treasury and according to its latest literature, had a treasury position
23

of $1.8m as at end 2q22 (those financials are not filed yet). So MTU has “get along money” and
via its 4m shares in Dryden Gold (plus more to come), will have another interesting asset on its
books. Finally, the privco Dryden Gold is slated to IPO at some point later this year and
assuming that happens, the asset becomes easier to value mark-to-market.
The plan to spin out the nickel areas of the large Goudreau property makes a lot of sense and
the volume spike we got from MTU last week was justified. After all, a purchase today would
mean you get a lottery ticket at a cheap price on Goudreau’s gold potential (3.5c per paper gets
plenty of leverage into your portfolio), the backing of its new position in the (presumably public
soon) Dryden Gold, cash payments from Dryden over the next three years to keep dilution
down and now, the chance for some “free shares” in a Canadian grassroots nickel play.
However there are two words of warning;
The current treasury is probably not enough to enact a spinout, fund the newco with sufficient
working capital to start the ball rolling, and keep MTU running as per its plans. The
announcement last week probably means we’re going to see another small-ish raising from
MTU and with 344.57m shares out already, that’s significant potential dilution.
That share count means the current market cap is just over C$12m and while that’s cheap, it’s
not one of those bargain basement dirt cheap scenarios in which current assets cover market
cap. At this price you are paying for the “brains trust” and while Goudreau is large, prospective
and well-located (next to Alamos Gold’s Island Gold and Argonaut’s Magino, in Central ON CA),
it has now been picked over for several years without setting the world on fire. From time to
time a drill assay has returned a high/very high grade intersect, but always the cuts have
tended to be deep, thin and without successful follow-ups.
MTU made the 2022 TinyCaps list because of its optionality potential at the price at the start of
the year. It’s now a lot lower than even that market cap and at 3.5c, its recent newsflow has
perked up its risk/reward potential. It also has
the advantage of running decent volumes on a
daily or weekly basis, which allows it to make
the frame as a fliptrade possible. However,
anyone thinking about throwing some shekels
at MTU on the back of last week’s news must
be aware of its very high risk. Three and a half
cents may seem cheap, but it only needs to
drop another penny and you’ve lost over 28%
of your outlay in one fell swoop. The price chart
(right) should put that into focus and make it
clear how the recent trend does not favour the
company. However, high risk must also offer
high reward to be valid and with this company,
you’re now getting plenty of strings to your bow at a bargain entry point.
Signature Gold (SGU.v): Up 25% on the week and that means half a cent, but anyone
thinking about making a killing by playing the bid/ask needs to look at the five day chart:
24

Yes, it closed at 2.5c but there’s no volume on the uptick, at least not yet. Caveat emptor.
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future
I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
Colombia’s new government on gold
We’ve had two moves so far from the Petro government concerning the country’s gold mining
sector. The first came last week as part of the fiscal package proposals sent by the Petro
executive to Congress for debate and vote. Along with a banner proposal to raise export taxes
on hydrocarbons, the new government has proposed a new 10% export tax on gold. That didn’t
go down well with the mining sector (surprise), but the initiative works in the same direction as
the latest proposal from Gustavo Petro¿’s own mouth this weekend. While announcing a
crackdown on illegal mining activity (including the proposal to dynamite un licensed gold
dredgers that work the country’s river basins), he expressed (translated) (23), “…his desire that
the Colombia Central Bank becomes the sole buyer of gold in the country.”
As for Colombia’s new Minister of Mining, Irene Vélez, it’s been mostly quiet so far and a case
of monitoring the airwaves for any statements made. She gave an extended Q&A to one of the
larger newspapers and in it went through her background (academia), her connection with
Gustavo Petro (a supporter but had no contact until two weeks before being offered the job)
and how she expects her pro-environmental/pro-social stance to work with the ministry, but to
date she has focused all sector comments on the Oil and Gas side of the ministry’s portfolio.
This allows a small reminder that in Colombia, the term “mining” is used for the extraction of
oil, gas, coal and other non-metallics as well as classic metals mining. The only clue of what’s to
come for (what we understand as) mining is a well-sourced agenda type publication that ran
the ministry’s “pending” list of matters on its desk and noted the MINESA Soto Norte gold
project, located in the ecologically sensitive páramo de Santurbán, is in the process of re-
submitting for its permits despite being refused in 2021 and that (translated) (24) “no longer
counts on the criteria of social, environmental and economic sustainability.” That does not
augur well for Aris Gold.
Chile: Another major walks
Following on from Freeport’s (FCX) decision to back out of the exploration earn-in deal it had
with Solaris (SLS.to) on its Ricardo target in North Chile (the fabled “other part of Chuqui” that
nobody can seem to hit with a drill), last week saw another major mining company take a step
back from the country when Newcrest (NCM) announced it was desisting in the two optioning-
in deals it had with Cornerstone Capital (25) and Mirasol Resources (26). Though NCM had
already drilled both projects and come up with dusters (CGP recently, MRZ in February), the
timing of the decisions to hand back the option deals is notable and adds to the growing feeling
that Chile is suddenly not the place to be if you want quick and dynamic exploration permitting
(see the WPM segment above for a little more).
The Lundin (LUN.to) sinkhole in Chile is a story worth watching
On Wednesday August 17th we got the initial report from Chile’s SMA environmental body
regarding thr 36m wide and 64m deep sinkhole that opened up at the end of July at the Lundin
Mining (LUN.to) Alcaparrosa mine, part of its Candelaria complex in the Atacama region of
North Chile. According to one Emanuel Ibarra of the SMA (27), it looks as though the company
has been over-mining the deposit, which in turn caused a rise in the amount of water flow
underground which was not managed correctly. While it’s still in the initial phases of the
investigation and nobody has been charged yet, even less found guilty Chile’s Minister of Mining
Marcela Hernando was quick to do the media rounds and gave this soundbite (28) (translated)
on the mineralization zone being mined by LUN where the sinkhole appeared, called “Gaby 4”:
“The Gaby 4 deposit was designed and authorized for the extraction of 400,000 tonnes
and according to data obtained by the investigation, some 300,000 tonnes have been
25

extracted. Inside the deposit there is still at least 300,000 tonnes.”
The inference is that the 300,000 tonnes still undeveloped are part of the total permitted for
extraction, which implies in rough terms that LUN has mined some 200,000 tonnes of material
from zones that were not part of the original plan or under the permit. And that’s naughty.
which brings up the subject of criminal prosecutions and on that, Minister Hernando said they
would happen and charges were being prepared in conjunction with the country’s water
authority (DGA). They expect to begin legal processes once the initial preliminary investigation
period officially ends on or about September 2nd. From the sound of the Minister, who said “We
are interested in using all our resources” when the subject of sanctions came up during her
media rounds, this is a story worth watching closely.
Chile’s Constitutional referendum update
The country now goes into polling blackout with two weeks to go before the referendum vote
happens (September 4th) and that means this weekend saw the last voter intention polls
published. CADEM is perhaps the best yardstick at this time, as an established pollster that has
taken the most regular pulse through the process and here’s the tracking chart, including some
red inky to highlight their last set of numbers out Friday evening (29):
That’s Reject 46%, Approve 37% and Cadem now has “reject” nine points ahead of “approve”.
It also forecasts the vote on the day to go against the new draft Constitution by 55 to 45. This
joins other polls out before the prohibition went up before the curfew on midnight Saturday:
 Universidad del Desarrollo (UDD): Reject 49%, Approve 39%
 Pulso Ciudadano: Reject 45.8%, Approve 32.9%
 Black & White (BW): Reject 58%, Approve 42%
All those pollsters use slightly different methodology, they all point in exactly the same
direction. For those who want more, this report and interview (8) with renowned local political
analyst Pepe Auth, respected centre-lefty and previously a parliamentarian and member of
Congress for Michelle Bachelet’s PPD coalition during her eight years as President, hits the nail
on the head. Its title is a soundbite from one of the fielded questions, “We’d need to have an
earthquake for Approve to win” and ends the session with “…(but) it’s too late, all the political
actors are resigned to what’s about to happen.” That’s exactly right and the reason President
Boric has been trying to shift the goalposts toward a new committee and search for a new draft
for the last month (30).
Peru: The noose tightens for Pedro Castillo
It’s a slow and drawn-out process, but the latest round of revelations from people arrested and
under remand who have turned State’s Witness have accused Pedro Castillo’s daughter in law
of being the front for cash payments in return for juicy civil works contracts, and that other civil
works contracts went directly to close personal friends of the President under dubious
circumstances. We now also have Catholic Archbishops getting involved and asking that both
the President and the current members of Congress step down (31) in order to allow new
elections and avoid what they believe to be an otherwise social uprising that will only bring
deep disruption and violence.
26

Argentina Chubut: Pan American Silver closing down Navidad
News from Chubut seems (32) to have brought an end to Pan American Silver’s (PAAS) Navidad
mine project. Local reports this weekend tell of PAAS making redundant the last set of
supervisors and social outreach workers on its payroll in the area, some 30 people who are no
longer the breadwinners of their families in the zone. PAAS seems to have admitted defeat and
will now put the project on the discard pile until and unless the political backdrop improves in
Chubut. This is not San Juan or Salta.
Market Watching
Deferred: There should be better newsflow soon.
Conclusion
IKN692 is done, we end with bullet points:
 Another week of sitting on my hands. So be it.
 Superior Gold (SGI.v) is now heavily oversold. There’s risk involved due to the slightly
weakened balance sheet, but even the reduced guidance for the rest of 2022 should be
enough to move the company through the gears and prepare for what was always
going to be the reason to own the stock, its potential in 2023.
 Jackson Hole, more exactly the anticipation of Jackson Hole, is likely to dominate the
macro week.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stock is Minera Alamos (MAI.v). Flash
updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best wishes, Mark
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://www.investopedia.com/powell-signals-no-fed-policy-shift-at-jackson-hole-5199137
(2) https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi
(3) https://www.marketwatch.com/story/powell-to-tell-jackson-hole-that-recession-wont-stop-feds-fight-against-high-
inflation-11660925902
(4) https://www.marketwatch.com/story/federal-reserve-officials-back-moving-rates-higher-in-order-to-slow-the-
economy-11660759625?mod=mw_latestnews&mod=article_inline
(5) https://superior-gold.com/site/assets/files/6445/superior_gold_-_corporate_presentation_aug_2022.pdf
(6) https://superior-gold.com/news/superior-gold-reports-second-quarter-results-122647/
(7) https://app.webinar.net/Q6jknP1NdX0
(8) https://6ix.com/event/second-quarter-financial-results-recap-and-h2-outlook
(9) https://aldebaranresources.com/news-releases/2022/aldebaran-corrects-august-18th-2022-news-release/
(10) https://6ix.com/event/aldebaran-confirms-coincidence-of-mineralization-and-geophysical-anomaly-at-altar-copper-
gold-project/
(11) https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/metals-copper-heading-for-weekly-fall-on-bleak-global-growth-outlook/
(12) https://www.metal.com/Copper/201211190003
(13) https://news.metal.com/newscontent/101923401/China-Weekly-Inventory-Summary-and-Data-Wrap-Aug-19/
27

(14) https://www.mining.com/copper-price-rises-on-hopes-for-solid-demand-in-china/
(15) https://meridianmining.co/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/MNO-Investor-Presentation-15th-August-2022-2.pdf
(16) https://regulusresources.com/site/assets/files/4246/regulus_corporate_presentation_august_2022.pdf
(17) https://proactivo.com.pe/buenaventura-planes-y-proyectos-de-su-diversificado-portafolio-minero-2021-exclusivo/
(18) https://www.wheatonpm.com/news/pressreleases/News-Releases-Details/2022/WHEATON-PRECIOUS-METALS-
ENTERS-INTO-AGREEMENT-TO-TERMINATE-ITS-EXISTING-SILVER-STREAM-IN-THE-KENO-HILL-SILVER-
DISTRICT/default.aspx
(19) https://www.wheatonpm.com/news/pressreleases/News-Releases-Details/2022/Wheaton-Precious-Metals-Enters-
Into-Agreement-To-Terminate-Its-Existing-Silver-Stream-On-The-Yauliyacu-Mine/default.aspx
(20) https://www.kitco.com/news/2022-08-17/-We-ve-been-a-bit-shocked-Wheaton-Precious-Metals-and-the-trouble-
advancing-mines-in-Chile.html
(21) https://manitougold.com/news/news-releases/manitou-gold-announces-intent-to-spin-out-nickel-cobalt-pge-
commodities
(22) https://www.globalminingreview.com/mining/10032022/manitou-gold-sells-dryden-properties-to-dryden-gold/
(23) https://www.elcolombiano.com/colombia/petro-propone-acciones-para-combatir-la-mineria-ilegal-IL18463748
(24) https://www.pares.com.co/post/ministerio-de-minas-y-energ%C3%ADa-irene-v%C3%A9lez-torres
(25) https://mirasolresources.com/news/mirasol-regains-100-control-of-gorbea-project-chile/
(26) https://cornerstoneresources.com/news-releases/22-19-newcrest-withdraws-from-option-and-farm-in-agreement-
for-the-miocene-project-in-chile/
(27) https://camiper.com/tiempominero-noticias-en-mineria-para-el-peru-y-el-mundo/medidas-contra-la-minera-ojos-del-
salado-tras-el-socavon-en-tierra-amarilla/
(28) https://www.t13.cl/noticia/nacional/socavon-tierra-amarilla-hernando-afirma-investigacion-ratifica-sobreexplotacion-
mina
(29) https://www.biobiochile.cl/noticias/nacional/chile/2022/08/19/cadem-rechazo-estira-ventaja-sobre-el-apruebo-a-9-
puntos-a-casi-dos-semanas-del-plebiscito.shtml
(30) https://www.ex-ante.cl/pepe-auth-tendria-que-pasar-un-evento-telurico-para-que-gane-el-apruebo/
(31) https://www.rcrperu.com/sociedad-civil-debe-conducir-una-transicion-democratica-ante-descomposicion-moral-del-
gobierno-de-pedro-castillo/
(32) https://www.elchubut.com.ar/puerto-madryn/2022-8-19-22-17-0-empresa-minera-se-retira-y-se-pierden-puestos-de-
trabajo-en-la-meseta
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Set-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Abr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
28

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Ago-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Set-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Ene-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Set-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Ene-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Set-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Ago-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Abr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Set-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Abr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Set-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
29

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-ago-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-ene-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-abr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-abr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-ene-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-ene-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-abr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-abr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
30

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
31