IKN #689Premium

The IKN Weekly
Week 689, July 31st 2022
Contents
This Week: In Today’s Edition, BLS Jobs Friday, Pivoting the pivot.
Fundamental Analysis: Copper Mountain (CMMC.to) 2q22 results and H2 guidance, Western
Copper & Gold (WRN) (WRN.to): A better option for copper speculation.
Stocks to Follow: Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v), Aldebaran Resources (ALDE.v), Amerigo Resources
(ARG.to), Anacortes Mining (XYZ.v), Goldshore Resources (GSHR.v), Minera Alamos (MAI.v),
Chesapeake Gold (CKG.v), Altiplano Metals (APN.v).
Copper Basket: Overview, Nevada Copper (NCU.to), Hot Chili (HCH.v).
Producer Basket: Overview, Newmont (NEM), Agnico (AEM) and Barrick (GOLD), Alamos
(AGI) (with a little Kinross).
TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Melkior Resources (MKR.v), Signature Resources (SGU.v).
Regional Politics: Argentina: A major political shake-up, Chile’s Constitutional referendum
update, Brazil: Lula may win in the first round, Colombia: One week to go, Peru does vacations
and MMG improves CSR.
Market Watching: Newcore Gold (NCAU.v): The right place waiting for the right time, Aris
Gold (ARIS.to) is an obvious short, part three.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
In Today’s Edition
 It was a good week for metals and stocks in general and the relief was felt by one and
all. That’s a good thing but the question now is if last week’s run will quickly peter out,
or whether the bottom is truly in the only way is up. Today’s intro.
 Today’s fundies section goes copper, with features on two stocks worthy of
consideration a speculative vehicles after copper’s move from U$3.20/lb to U$3.60/lb.
Copper Mountain’s (CMMC.to) stock has been a happy hunting ground for this desk in
the last couple of years but at the moment, I prefer the risk/reward balance that
Western Copper & Gold (WRN.to) (WERN) offers and explain why (hopefully).
 Copper was indeed a perkier and more pleasant metal to be exposed to last week,
about time after a rotten three months of losses taken. The Copper Basket check out
the fundamentals and likes the look of them, but also recognizes that deeper currents
are at play.
 A major political earthquake hit Argentina last week and while the subject is mainly
non-mining, I’ve tried to get as much of the story into as few words as possible in
today’s Regional Politics section.
BLS Jobs Friday
A heads-up on this Friday, as the US BLS Jobs report for July is due with current expectations
(1) for 250,000 non-farm payroll jobs to be added and the headline unemployment rate to stay
at 3.6%. We also know that in these worried times, the macro mavens will be scouring the
details of the BLS report to search for wage pressures and signs of “flation” (be that in or stag).
1

On that subject, we move to the real intro note.
Pivoting the pivot
This time last weekend we had a market showing signs of bottoming out and ready for a
rebound, but we also had an important FOMC between us and the end of the week, so after
considering the reasonable price action in gold and the quickly improving copper market (which
continues to come with strong fundamentals from real end-user buyers) we rounded off the
intro to IKN688 with an idea of the most prudent course of action: “…to watch and wait for the
Fed’s communiqué on Wednesday, as well as the market reaction. But the last few days have
indicated that there is a possible bottom being put into this bearish metals market and it may
be coming a lot sooner than the generalists realize.”
Come Wednesday and once the “…Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal
funds rate to 2-1/4 to 2-1/2 percent and anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range
will be appropriate”, the rebound scenario we sketched out for metals largely came to pass. The
US Dollar dropped, the Treasurys yield curve remained inverted, gold rallied and with the
increasing likelihood of a stagflation environment over the simple recession environment now
gaining ground, the move in copper was perhaps the most telling of all the metals (see chart in
Copper Basket, below).
What’s more, the new market
narrative driving equities higher
was exactly on-point with the quote
excepted last weekend from Mark
Spitznagel of Universa Investments.
This time last weekend his “fight
the Fed” talk (remember “The Fed
is actually trying to lead us to
believe that they are prepared to
tighten into a recession, which of
course is a ridiculous prospect”?)
was on the sidelines of a market
wondering which way Jay Powell
would jump, by Friday the market
was rallying on the blithe
assumption of a newly-inevitable
“Fed Pivot”. Sic transit Gloria mundi
and a week to remind this desk of
this famous cartoon from The
Economist (author Kal).
That the rub to last week’s rally in
all things non-Dollar, by they broad
market, metals market or a handful
of my preferred copper juniors: At
the drop of a hat, “Fed Pivot” has become a crowded trade and not only that, it’s a trade that
suits the wider world and the vast majority of market participants (i.e. the ones who want to
see share prices go higher). That’s a dangerous assumption to make in these volatile times and
while a weaker USD is good news for gold, juniors
and the readers of this introduction, it’s not going to
take much of that special Fed Jawbone Juice to
reverse the sentiment.
Now, I’d agree that the rally in equities is a signpost
toward the reality of today’s macro situation, I am
after all one of the guys who have been banging on
about this being a Stagflation scenario, rather than
2

Plain Vanilla Inflation, and in stagflation prices of all things, gold and copper included, get
support. However, what I’m concerned about is the way the Fed want to control the macro and
reach the un-natural conclusion of this market.
 The natural conclusion is a hard landing, including a deep recession, reset and market
crash.
 An unnatural conclusion is a soft landing, a financially-engineered way of avoiding
financial pain among Main Street and a resumption of the party on Wall St.
These two assumptions are also part of the basic mistake made by hardcore goldbugs, who
only see the former and shake their collective fists at the world while shouting “Unfair!” when
the latter takes over. The Fed, therefore, will do what it can to avoid the type of peak and crash
being signalled by the start of a precocious equities rally. Or put in plainer English, the last
thing they need to fight inflation is a population with disposable income! So it’s at this point we
can wheel in another of those classic Fed metaphors because Jay Powell doesn’t want to get
the party started again, not right away at least, and in the words of legendary Fed Chair William
William McChesney Martin, “The job of the Federal Reserve is to take away the punch bowl just
as the party gets going.” This is not a new situation, lady/gentleman reader of The IKN Weekly.
It’s the Fed’s job to remain hawkish from now until September and no matter whether the next
raise is 50bps or not, they can get on and signal all they want in order to take the edge off
capitalism and reel in expectations. We all know the drill too, the Kabuki Theater of talking
heads and actors can pull on their datasets and suggest, just as one hypothetical example, that
75 or even one hundred basis points isn’t off the table and the equities rally comes screeching
to a halt. The USD reverts upwards, gold retraces, copper takes a hit at market and it won’t
even matter that Shanghai is running out of the stuff and a legion of Chinese end-users are
doing all they can to secure their supply into year-end.
So while the nascent rally is welcome on these pages and wholly logical, we market participants
would do well to remember that sentiment, rather than hard facts about supply and demand,
govern the near-term movements of the stock market. After all, the Fed knows that all too well
and is willing to use the fact at a moment’s notice.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Copper Mountain (CMMC.to) 2q22 results and H2 guidance (in CAD$ unless stated)
When your operating mining company reports its quarter and the word “Challenging” appears in
the first line of the CEO comments, you know the stock is in for a rough ride that day. So it was
with Copper Mountain Mining Corporation (CMMC.to) and its 2q22 results as published last
Monday, July 25th (2). We’ll get to the comments from CEO Gil Clausen in a moment but before
we go any further and to cut to the chase, a look at the ten-day price chart of CMMC helps get
to the essence of CMMC’s week and what we need to cover in today’s note:
3

Two weeks ago, CMMC was a $1.60 and $1.65 company, already a mile down from where we
sold it during 1q22 but unfortunately, that sort of Q2 performance hasn’t been unusual in the
copper space. In the week before the Monday earnings release CMMC traded weakly and then
Monday’s numbers saw it sell off further, first to $1.30 by that day’s close and then as low as
$1.24 on Tuesday before the world turned on its heel Wednesday.
The second half of CMMC’s week could hardly have been any different, as with the bad news
behind it and copper now rallying on the back of a market that had decided a world recession
wasn’t going to kill commodity prices after all, CMMC set about rallying in spectacular style and
by the close Friday, it was back as a C$1.62.
That’s one doozy of a way to end up UNCH over
two weeks and for context, here’s a
comparative chart of the same period with
CMMC stacked up against spot copper (HG00)
and the copper producer’s ETF (COPX) (right).
Even if we ignore the tremendous dump CMMC
shares took on Monday and Tuesday as the rest
of the sector began its rally, CMMC managed to
out-rally peers and the price of copper by
around 5% last week. An impressive three-day
rebound capped off by the most intense buying
on Friday, as the stock rose by 10.2% on over
2m shares traded. One reason for the sharper
bounce is due to wider context so, before we
dive into the quarter, one more chart showing the same squiggly lines 20922 YTD:
Long story short, CMMC bounced harder because it has more to make up. The sector had a bad
time of it in Q2 but CMMC had it worse than most. That’s due to several factors (as usual),
which include a large holder that’s now a persistent seller as well as CMMC’s high quartile
corporate cost basis which means this stock will always run high higher leverage against the
moves in copper prices. However, it’s also due to the company’s poor recent execution and
that’s where we go now.
Results and guidance: To do so, we now check out the CEO comments from the 2q22 results
NR which came in one block but covered two subjects. The first part was about the company’s
trainwreck of a quarter and went like this:
“There were a number of challenging issues in the second quarter contributing to lower
production and higher costs,” commented Gil Clausen , Copper Mountain’s President
and CEO. “Most of the impact to production came from lower-grade ore and crushing
circuit throughput. The mining of the last benches of Phase 2 from a lower grade area
and the top cuts of the new North Pit, which was lower-grade and oxidized with some
high clay content zones, created a sticky feed that impacted crushing circuit
performance with clogged chutes and crushers plugging. Further, a stripping delay in
Phase 4 slowed down the release of higher grade clean ore.
We do Part Two of the CEO comment below but first let’s check out the 2q22 numbers in light
4

of these comments. While ore mined was substantially lower, CMMC managed to rely on
stockpiles to keep milled ore to a reasonable level.
Mill operating time improved slightly on the
previous two quarters, but the glitches noted by
CEO Clausen in the comments kept the mine
from running at its standard rate. However, the
main problem was here (right). That 0.23%
average head grade wasn’t just bad, it was
awful and the main reason for the big
production miss on the quarter. Here’s the
copper production and sales chart and below
that, we show the small gold by-product
numbers (the even smaller silver kicker is for a
more comprehensive anal ysis):
CMMC: Copper production and sales, per qtr
5
274.71 268.71 290.81 978.81 439.81 428.71 350.32 217.81 625.52
105.72
515.52 696.12 604.22 614.42 396.61 193.91
422.31 784.31 152.31 398.21
02 02 42 42
30
25
20
15 10
5
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
CMMC: Ore mined and milled, per qtr
Mlbs Cu
Cu prod (mlbs)
Cu sales (mlbs)
source: company filings
Note that for the main copper product, we also add in the 3q22 and 4q22 house estimates and
we’ll get to that subject in a moment, for the time being our subject is 2q22 and the 13m lbs Cu
level turned out to be even worse than the badly interrupted 1q22 quarter, another period we
managed to miss by selling out before the results
day. All in all, this was an awful quarter and
what’s more, the issues listed by CEO Clausen in
his commentary were largely avoidable. The delay
in developing the Phase 4 mining zone caused a
knock-on for sure, but this is a mature and well understood deposit, so the company should have
known about the high clay content and causing
sticky feed, clogged chutes and plugged crushers.
With that thought In mind we now return to Part
Two of CEO Gil Clausen’s “challenging” CEO
876.3 835.3 775.3 566.3 331.3 527.3 587.3 804.3 824.3 034.3 458.3 534.3 350.3 714.3 320.3 421.3 888.2 869.2
325.2
852.3
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2
mmt 100% ore mined CMMC: Mill operating time (%)
tonnes milled 98%
96%
94%
92%
90%
88%
86%
84%
82%
80%
4q19 1q20 2q20 3q20 4q20 1q21 2q21 3q21 4q21 1q22 2q22
source: company filings source: company filings
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t8uc
:BN
CMMC: Mill head grade, per qtr
43.0 82.0 03.0 92.0 82.0 62.0 13.0 03.0 82.0 92.0
04.0 24.0 024.0 073.0
3.0 52.0 32.0
0.50
0.45
0.40
0.35
0.30
0.25
0.20 0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2
% Cu
source: company filings
CMMC: Gold production and sales, per qtr
9316 4636 9947 9826 0366 2326 9598 3527 7818 3558 7267 5456 9447 8038 2745 5826 5315 6705 2975 9605
10000
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000 4000 3000
2000
1000
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2
Oz Au
Au prod
Au sold
source: company financials

comments from Monday’s NR and suddenly, the mood changes as Clausen talks up the future.
Post quarter end, we started the ore release in Phase 4, and with the first half of the
year behind us, we plan on delivering the higher production levels forecast for the
remainder of the year. Increased production will be largely driven by a few factors.
First, as we finished mining through the bottom of Phase 2 and worked through the top
oxidized benches of the North Pit, we will advance the clean ore in the North Pit and
Phase 4 which will allow for higher recovery and support processing at full capacity.
Second, we expect grades to average around 0.30% Cu for the remainder of the year
as we mine mostly higher-grade ore from Phase 4, which is planned for late July. And
third, copper recovery is expected to increase further with the completion of our plant
optimization and improvement projects. With increased grade, recovery, and
throughput, we expect strong production in the second half of 2022, with the fourth
quarter being the strongest quarter, and carry that production through 2023 and 2024.”
A sudden change in tone and one that must have helped CMMC rally into the last three days of
the week. With copper rallying well and the Fed making the right noises on Wednesday to allow
equities to rise, CMMC got new attention from a market looking for a liquid volume, high cost,
leveraged play on copper. In the 2q22 MD&A CMMC goes into more detail on the outlook for
the rest of this year and preliminary on 2023, I’ve done some bold-typing to help:
As a result of H1 2022 production results, the Company now expects annual
production in the range of 65 to 75 million pounds of copper. The Company expects
production in the second half of 2022 to be considerably higher than the first half of
2022 as the Company begins to mine from higher grade ore from Phase 4 of the
Copper Mountain Main Pit in July. The higher grade Phase 4 ore is expected
throughout the remainder of 2022 and through 2023. As a result, the Company is
reiterating its 2023 production guidance range of between 90 to 105 million pounds of
copper.
The Company is increasing its AIC per pound of copper cost guidance for 2022 to the
range of between US$2.75 and US$3.25 because of the higher-than-planned AIC in
H1 2022 and inflationary pressures noted. As production is expected to increase
throughout 2022, and as there were a number of non-recurring expenses in H1 2022,
the Company expects AIC to improve for the remainder of 2022.
The new lower guidance for 2022 of 65mlbs to 75mlbs copper compares to the original 2022
guidance of 80m lbs to 90m lbs copper and after the bad 1q22 and 2q22 numbers, that’s not a
surprise. Due to the new guidance and as seen in the copper production/sales chart as seen
above, our house estimates are now based on CMMC producing 20m lbs Cu in 3q22 and 24m
lbs in 4q22, which gets us to just above the 70m lbs level and splits the guidance number.
As for costs, the new AIC of U$2.75/lb to U$3.25/lb is 75c higher than the previous guidance
and that MD&A outlook guidance, plus the mention of non-recurring expenses in H1, allows us
to model the company’s projections for the second half of the year. It works like this:
 For 26.5m lbs copper in 1h22, the AIC was U$5.01/lb
 CMMC is now guiding a maximum AIC for 2022 of U$3.25/lb
 Production guidance is 65mlbs to 75mlbs, we model to split the difference
 That brings the model to 20mlbs in 3q22 and 24mlbs in 4q22 = 44mlbs
Once you do the math, if CMMC produced 26.5mlbs in the first half of 2022 at an AIC of
U$5.01/lb, in order to get the total 2022 AIC down to its high end guidance number of
U$3.25/lb AIC you need to produce 44m lbs of copper at an average AIC of just over U$2.20/lb.
That’s a long way lower than the cost
CMMC: Received copper price vs. AISC Cu/lb produced numbers the company has just posted,
but if we look at our AISC tracking chart
(right) it’s not out of the question. Also,
the company’s mention of those non-
recurring expenses in H1 suggests that
CMMC will defer as many non-essential
capital works in the second half of this
year in order to keep AIC as close to AISC
as possible. The above chart also covers
6
41.2 85.2
76.1
34.2
34.1
79.2
85.1
53.3
64.1
9.3
38.1
33.4
77.1
72.4
45.2
44.4 54.4 45.4 56.3 81.4
9.1
5.3
2
8.3
5
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5 2
1.5
1
0.5
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
U$/lb
Cu AISC U$/lb
Cu received price U$/lb
|
source: Company filings, IKN ests

the average received price for copper and while the U$4.18/lb in 2q22 was good, that would
have dropped sharply at the end of the month and we all know what prices did in July.
Therefore and for our model’s sake, we assume U$3.50/lb for the current quarter and dare to
believe copper will return to U$3.80/lb for 4q22.
Summing up so far, while 2q22 was a particularly bad quarter and deserved the panelling it got
form the market on Monday, the combo of upbeat guidance for the rest of the year and the rise
in copper prices at market saw the share price losses reversed and new buyers coming in on
the stock’s speculative appeal. So to get a better handle on whether the rally to C$1.62 was
deserved and is merited, we now run the numbers.
BUT! BUT BUT BUT, hopefully you’ve already noticed the need for some fairly loose and wide-
ranging assumptions to put a reasonable earnings guidance together:
 We assume CMMC produces 44mlbs copper (and equivalent levels of gold and silver) in
2q22, comprising of 20mlbs in the current quarter and 24mlbs in 4q22. With the
company’s new guidance, the IKN guesstimate could be 5mlbs either way.
 We assume they will make the top end of their costs guidance. Hey, they may even
surprise and come in at the bottom end of U$2.75/lb (though I highly doubt that, as
absolute costs in Canadian Dollars make that a Utopia assumption) but even getting to
the top end of U$3.25/lb AIC will mean cutting right down on capital budget and also
putting in two quarters of impeccable production performance. After the last two
quarters of mess-ups (or three if one includes the weather-affected 4q21), there’s no
guarantee CMMC will deliver.
 We assume a copper price of U$3.50/lb average in 3q22 and U$3.80/lb in 4q22 and as
this audience should recognize, in 2022 predicting copper is like predicting the wind.
With that in mind, let’s add in a rough sensitivity guidance that a U$0.20/lb change in
the price of copper for what’s left of 2022 will change top-line revenues by around
C$5m per quarter, assuming gold and forex moves of the same style.
Therefore, this is definitely a “best fit CMMC.to: Revenues
ballpark” forecast for what’s left of 2022 for
CMMC and if any of those parameters change,
so does the moving target. But you have to
start somewhere and so here we go with the
earnings data, including the 2q22 mess and
what we could get in 3q22 and 4q22. First the
top line revenues (right) we see the disaster
that was 2q22, the worst total in a long time
due to lower sales and negative adjustments
from previous consignments. As for what’s let
of the year, assuming our sales and price
targets are hit we expect 3q22 revenues at $102m (NB; CMMC reports in Loonies) and 4q22 at
$129m, the type of number that would put it back on an even keel. We add in costs to come to
a gross profit number or three:
7
980.19 299.49 1.601
12.261
60.241 81.731 67.631
858.39
470.95
201 921
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
$m
source: company filings
CMMC.to: Quarterly Earnings overview
952.03
910.24
713.74
82.69 687.58
146.66 571.27
675.81
781.9-
24
28
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
2q20 3q20 4q20 1q21 2q21 3q21 4q21 1q22 2q22 3q22est 4q22est
source: company filings, IKN ests
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revenues
COGS
Gross profit

As costs tend to be relatively inelastic at CMMC that low 2q22 revenues number didn’t stand a
chance and the company returned a gross loss of $9.187m on the quarter. That runs against
Rule One of any mine (make a profit) and even compared to recent disappointments from the
company, a particularly shameful result. We now turn our attention to the future and as long as
all those assumptions come to pass (which includes assuming CMMC doesn’t disappoint again),
gross profits are slated at $42m for 3q22 and a healthy $82m for 4q22,. That 4q22 estimate
which would put the company earning at the levels which attracted me to the stock in late
2020, when buying at $1.40 and selling six months later at $4.18. Ah, those were the days…
Anyway and moving on, I’m going to skip the net profits and standard EPS forecasts and stay
with the more important operating EPS charts in dollars and per-share:
CMMC.to: Operating profit
Again, 2q22 was a mess but thanks to the hedge that protects the downside, it gained C$13.9m
and managed to cover its debt servicing with a little to spare. That was a good thing and it is
set to help in the current quarters too. Operating EPS estimates come in at 16c in 3q22 and 26c
in 4q22, the latter would be more than enough to see the share rally to the levels we saw in
2021. However, there’s one other weak point now showing in the CMMC story and while we’re
not doing all the balance sheet details today, liquidity is worth a word or two:
The combo of gross loss at operations and those (non-recurring) costs saw cash treasury drop
alarmingly. Now, context is required and as long as the cash&eq number of C$85.5m and the
working capital position of C$52.5m represent low water marks and things improve in the next
two quarters as CMMC has promised, this shouldn’t become an emergency issue. However,
there’s now a clock on CMMC delivering a good quarter as after three poor results from 4q21,
1q22 and 2q22 that all failed to capitalize on the best of the copper prices, the balance sheet at
the company cannot take many more poor results and stay healthy. The treasury and cash
position isn’t a red flag, not yet at least, but there are now extra risks added to the company if
they decide to miss guidance in either 3q22 or 4q22.
Discussion and conclusion
Copper Mountain (CMMC.to) is and always will be a speculative vehicle to trade moves in the
price of copper. Its high cash cost provides leverage to the metal and its corporate structure,
8
9.91
5.1- 4.5- 2.05- 0.81-
8.82 3.93 5.04 1.58 0.77 2.26 9.46 7.7
5.6-
0.43
0.65
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
source: company data, IKN ests
srallod
fo
snoillim
CMMC: Operating EPS, per qtr
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
-0.10
-0.20
-0.30
71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
source: company data, IKN calcs
retrauq
rep
erahs/$C
200 CMMC.to: Cash and ST
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2
CMMC.to: Working Capital per qtr
200
160
120
80
40
0
-40
-80
-120
source: company filings, IKN ests
71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2
source company filings, IKN ests
srallod
fo
snoillim

including a high level of financial debt (held in dollars and credited to JV partner Mitsubishi)
adds to the volatility of its equity. With that background, CMMC fully deserved the whacking it
got in the market on Monday and Tuesday after its woeful 2q22 results, but the combination of
copper’s bounce and the Jam Tomorrow factor in guidance for the rest of the year caused the
sharp rebound that we saw. As a speculative vehicle commonly used by the Canadian market
players, the CMMC share price is a constant moving target and any recommendation I give
today could change tomorrow because its circumstances change enough. For example:
 If CMMC were still at $1.25 or $1.30 this weekend, I’d probably be a buyer.
 If copper moved quickly to U$3.80/lb in August, I’d probably be a buyer.
 If Copper traded around U$3.50/lb and then moved up to U$3.80/lb for 4q22 and
CMMC could guarantee 44mlbs Cu produced in the period, I’d probably be a buyer.
 If Australian fund Zeta Resources, which has sold down nearly 6m shares in the last
five quarters and still owns over 35m shares of CMMC, decides to stay away from the
Sell button until 2023 at a minimum, I’d probably be a buyer.
 If they can do a deal on Eva and sell it for cash in the next three months, I’d probably
be a buyer.
But none of those variables are guaranteed, not for this company. After three mediocre
quarters of missed production topped by last week’s trainwreck Q2, it’s hard even to place faith
in the company guidance for the next two quarters, let alone 2023. For what it’s worth, 44mlbs
over the next two quarters is reasonable as an assumption but that does not preclude (yet
more) “challenges” showing up at the company, aside from that and for my money (quite
literally) CMMC’s new costs guidance looks too good to be true and a tougher metric to meet
for the year than straight production. Besides all that, we also have Zeta and its quasi Sword of
Damocles now hanging over the stock price, as at any moment another couple of million shares
could get dumped into the bid and either stop decent trading gains from happening, or even
knock the share price down in a flat market.
In essence, a trade in CMMC is a speculation on copper prices and that’s a risk I’d be happy to
take if enough of the other variables could be assumed predictable, but in this case that’s not
possible. The late week rally in CMMC last week took away too much reward to compensate for
the high risk of being exposed to this company that, after a couple of years of decent
production, is back to its unreliable ways of yore. I am not a buyer of Copper Mountain
(CMMC.to) at this current share price, not until it has proven itself as a more reliable and lower
cost producer than it has been over the last three quarters. I am fully aware that CMMC could
run higher without me, but if the price of copper improves from here until the end of the year
there will be many other ways to play the trade that are equally as lucrative, but without
unnecessary exposure to a stock that has delivers too many Black Swan moments to its
shareholders. Which is why the next segment exists.
Western Copper & Gold (WRN) (WRN.to): A better option for copper speculation
With Copper Mountain’s 2q22 coming in as badly as it did, its late week rally removing
speculative upside and the reasons outlined above as to why the asymmetric risk/reward
balance fails to attract for the two quarters to come (at least at this current price deck), the
obvious question arises: What about a better, less risky vehicle with which to speculate on the
moves in copper and, for a stock with which you can ride the copper upside, look no further
Western Copper & Gold.
This company is part of The IKN Weekly Watchlist for good reasons:
Size: Here’s the latest resource table, as from the new Feasibility Study as announced on June
28th (3):
9

With 7.4Bn lbs Cu and 12.9m oz gold, Casino is very much a copper and gold co-product
proposition and while copper is the main payable, gold is estimated to contribute a third of
revenues over life of mine (which smaller by-product
kickers from moly and silver).
Development: As from last month, we now have an up-to-
date Feasibility Study that shows robust economics at
2022 costs. With the recent Yukon government decision to
drive a roadway into the location, Casino now promises
the necessary infrastructure to build a world class mine.
Relationships are reportedly good with the key First Nation
stakeholders and as copper projects go, this is as close to
“shovel ready” as they come in the major mining project
sector.
Sponsor: The main strategic partner at WRN is none other
than Rio Tinto, which is the right type of name you want
for a project this size. Its 27 year mine life and 3.6Bn
capex bill limits the number of companies that would get
involved and as we reported earlier this year (before the market went sour on copper), it is
telling that WRN was taking instructions from RTZ on the location of the collars for its current
infill drilling campaign.
Jurisdiction: This is becoming more important to the industry by the year, even by the quarter.
With so many locations in the world either becoming ambivalent or outright anti towards the
mining industry (e.g. Colombia, Chile) and other prospective countries with risk shooting higher
(e.g. Peru, Ecuador), a location such as this in the
Canadian Yukon adds significant dollars to the list 200 WRN.to: Shares Out
price of prospective projects. This isn’t reflected 180
much in WRN’s current PPS, but come the day it is 160
140
sold that will surely be part of the ticker price paid.
120
100
Current price: At 141.45m shares out and a price 80
this weekend of U$1.41 for the US-listing (C$1.82 60
40
on the TSX), CMMC is a U$213.5m market cap
20
company and most likely buyer Rio Tinto already
0
owns 7.8% of the shares, which would make its
eventual purchase that much easier. For context,
that market cap is currently less than 10% of base
case post-tax NPV at an 8% discount, a very thin
valuation for a company that ticks many of the boxes required by major mining companies and
with its obvious suitor already in tow. In the event of a buyout, in bullish times we could expect
the project owner sell for around 30% of NPV and even now, in these bearish days of
depressed valuations, it’s virtually impossible to
imagine a deal being accepted that’s under 20%
NPV. In other words, a minimum buyout price
would be U$3.07 and an eventual price higher
than that wouldn’t raise many eyebrows as the
purchaser’s major capital outlays are only
beginning when they secure ownership and there
would be another three point six billion things on
its mind after that.
The WRN price chart shows a couple of spikes and
drops which are somewhat deceptive in nature, as
the first one came when RTZ made its well-
publicized move in as strategic partner and
10
71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 tse22q2
source: company filings
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speculation mounted that WRN was going to be bought out there and then. The second spike
happened as the recent Feasibility Study work was finalizing and happened for much the same
speculative reasons, but was nipped in the bud by the macro market’s reversal and copper’s
sharp drop in price. If Copper has now bottomed as many assume, this would put WRN back in-
play as an obvious buyout target, but it’s now a company that also boasts a contemporary
feasibility study (once published to SEDAR) and a strategic partner no longer chained by
standstill agreements.
Conclusion: There are no risk-free trades in junior mining, but in this case there is virtually no
execution risk left to consider as the Feas Study is
done and the project is a well-understood entity.
60 WRN.to: Working Capital per qtr
The full treasury (right) means there’s no real risk 55
of dilution and the recent sell-off has brought the 50
45
stock price back to where it’s easily buyable, the 40
type of “double in a buyout scenario” proposition 35
30
that allows plenty of reward to the risk involved. 25
20
15
Aside the buyout potential, the risk is the 10
speculation that copper goes higher and the same 5
0
trade assumption one would make when buying
Copper Mountain (CMMC.to), but one that comes
without all the extra variables that CMMC today
brings to the table. With fewer moving parts and a
clear opportunity to quickly move up if and when copper does the same, WRN at its current
price deck looks a better and safer bet than most.
On a personal level (and this is the same message as seen in Newcore (NCAU.v) below), I am
holding on to the strategy of not deploying any extra cash until a turn in the market is
confirmed. Today’s intro section lays out why I’m still leery, but it’s clearly a better market than
it was even two weeks ago and at some point in the near future, my excuses for not deploying
the dry powder will run out. However, I may well be more cowardly than you are and if that is
the case, a trade in WRN next week would fit the bill for those readers looking to trade this
copper rebound.
Stocks to Follow
The sector’s rebound on the week was reflected in our Stocks to Follow list but it wasn’t all
sweetness and flowers, as among the four week-over-week losers (RIO.v, ALDE.v, XYZ.v,
GSHR.v) were two large percentage losers in the shape of Rio2 (RIO.v down 25.7%) and
Goldshore Resources (GSHR.v down 18.2%). There were three in the UNCH column as well
(MAI.v, SGI.v, PA.v), but the nine winners outweighed the laggards (ARG.to, QCCU.v, CKG.v,
APN.v, MIRL.cse, NCAU.v, ELBM.v, WRN.to, MENE.v) and there were plenty of big percentage
winners in the list, headed by Altiplano (APN.v up 38.9%) and followed by Electra Battery
(ELBM.v up 29.9%), Chesapeake (CKG.v up 17.9%), Minera IRL (MIRL.cse up 17.6%), Amerigo
(ARG.to up 14.0%), QC Copper (QCCU.v up 10.7%) and Western (WRN.to up 10.3%).
Despite the general updraft, there are still only two positions in the green which gives a feel for
the damage done by the recent downdraft.
11
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 tse22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
source company filings
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company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.50 138.1% $1.14 tgt, #1 idea on FY22 dev
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Amerigo Res ARG.to STR BUY C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.30 -4.4% $2.40 tgt on FY22 guidance
Superior Gold SGI.v STR BUY C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.66 -30.5% Au prod jr, right place/time
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v BUY C$0.275 25-Apr-21 C$0.155 -43.6% Now drilling. Easy hold
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v HOLD C$0.83 22-Apr-18 C$0.13 -84.3% Downgrade on permit denial
SPECULATIVE TRADES
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v SPEC BUY C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$2.30 -25.1% Au leverage, small trade so far
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v BUY C$0.72 16-May-21 C$0.77 6.9% hole 221 may give boost
Palamina Corp PA.v SPEC BUY C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.11 -62.7% Au expl in S.Peru
Altiplano Metals APN.v HOLD C$0.31 17-Sep-21 C$0.25 -19.4% Cheap entry, plan on track.
Minera IRL MIRL.cse hold C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.10 -48.7% CEO change will move stock
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
Newcore Gold NCAU.v WATCH C$0.51 20-Mar-22 C$0.30 -41.2% potential gold exploreco trade
Electra Battery ELBM.v WATCH C$5.31 20-Mar-22 C$5.00 -5.8% potential battery metals play
Anacortes Mining XYZ.v WATCH C$0.49 22-Jul-22 C$0.465 -5.1% potential gold exploreco trade
Goldshore Res GSHR.v WATCH C$0.33 22-Jul-22 C$0.27 -18.2% potential gold exploreco trade
Western Copper WRN.to SPEC BUY C$2.41 20-Mar-22 C$1.82 -24.5% potential copper trade
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.66 6-Dec-20 C$0.59 -10.6% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
2015 to 2021 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for a few notes just one or two of the covered companies:
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v): I’ve had more mail on RIO.v than any other company over the week and
that’s not a surprise, but for the moment there’s not much to report. We’ve had the official
rejection document (RCA) published and digested by both this desk and the company, here’s
what we know and what to expect in the days to come:
 The RCA repeated the reasons for rejection we first saw in the SEA report and then
repeated by the 12-member committee at the beginning of July. There were no
surprises or extra reasons given and the rejection was firmly based on the purported
lack of data on the local fauna around the Fenix project area (i.e. the chinchilla, vicuña
and guanaco).
 Having been asked on several occasions, it’s worth pointing out that RIO.v has had no
objections or problems with its water supply project, including sources, methods of
transport (those trucks) etc. It also has full approval from all affected local
communities, which is another reason as to why this situation is so strange and
different (as yes, politically suspicious).
12

 According to the company, they have strong grounds for appeal and that the company
firmly believes that its work on the questioned environmental baselines (i.e. the fauna)
has been misrepresented by Chilean authorities.
 However and before making any public announcements, RIO.v wants to talk with its
backers in order to go through its financial situation and secure the funds required to
cover the delay in plans. I don’t have names or amounts on this (for obvious reasons),
but it’s no stretch of the imagination to assume RIO will be talking with Wheaton
(WPM), BNPP on the one side in order to secure necessary working capital, and on the
other side with the suppliers where it placed orders for long-lead time mine equipment
items in order to potentially roll back the orders.
 Now that the RCA has been published and duly digested by its lawyers, we should
expect those talks to happen in the near term (without knowing, by reading between
the lines that means as early as this week) and once that process is done, RIO.v will be
in the position to make some public announcements, lay out its plans and strategy to
shareholders, etc.
The bottom line to today’s news is, therefore, “not much news yet” and while I’m as anxious as
the next person to hear about progress and what the company is going to do, it’s
understandable. Meanwhile the stock traded badly last week and closed at 13.5c, down plenty
and for no real reason (aside perhaps opportunity cost). In my opinion, there’s the same lack of
reason to sell today as there was two weeks ago at 17c and 18c and with volume now running
through the stock on a daily basis, there may even be a trade flip win to play for those so
inclined. The 5m oz are still there, they are not going away and RIO.v isn’t about to lose its
concession rights or ownership of them. That makes them politically troubled but cheap and
robust in-situ gold ounces and those are actionable.
Aldebaran Resources (ALDE.v): ALDE made its sharp move the week before last, so with
the pending closure of the placement and the pending release of the next set of drill results,
including the intriguing #221, expected soon after the slated August 9th close, this one missed
out on the copper sector updraft. But that’s okay,
as long as it delivers in August.
Anacortes Mining (XYZ.v): On the Watchlist and
I do not yet own, XYZ still had sellers moving out
and finding other places for this money last week,
but come Friday the pressure had abated.
Fundamentally very cheap and overly sold down on
what would have been a shrug-shoulder negative
NR if the market had been in a better mood, but
until volume picks up it won’t be an easy trading
vehicle. We await the next set of drill results.
Goldshore Resources (GSHR.v): On the
Watchlist and I do not yet own, GSHR was also
thrown around by sellers last week but specifically,
two heavy and lumpy selling moments early week
before golf had chance to rally (right). Which
reminds me of a weak link in the GSHR story, the
way it’s been heavily marketed and promoted to
retail via high traffic channels such as Stansberry
Research/Casey Research ever since its IPO. When
the stock performs badly that makes for a lot of
retail bagholders, often of the size you see in those
selling spikes of Monday and without putting too
fine a point on it, people who don’t know how to
buy are often people who don’t know how to sell.
13

Amerigo Resources (ARG.to): One copper stock that rebounded well last week was ARG,
which is good as it’s my largest Cu position, but today we’re more concerned about the near
future as this coming week on Wednesday August 3rd pre-open, ARG is set to report its quarter.
We also get the Conference Call on Thursday at 2pm ET and along with those dates, we should
also get the next dividend declaration. Until the copper sell-off there was a chance of a bonus
payout, but as the company has concentrate on buying back shares we should get the baseline
3c Canadian dividend. That would still make this a near-10% yield and that’s exceptional for the
sector. Expect a good look at the results next week, as compared with the expectations as seen
in IKN687 dated July 17th.
Minera Alamos (MAI.v): Wednesday saw MAI President Doug Ramshaw present at the OTC
Markets Group Metals & Mining Virtual Investor Conference with the link to show replay
available either here (4) or here (5). For
close watchers of this stock, there wasn’t
much in the way of new news during the
show and President Ramshaw was
mostly pitching to people new to the
stock, but the final slide from the
presentation is worth our consideration:
We don’t get a timing on Santana
commercial production, but we do see
how exploration work is about to kick off
at both Santana and Cerro de Oro. The
other interesting part of this graphic is to
note how quickly MAI expects to get
Cerro de Oro off the ground and into first
production, we could see first pour as
early as this time next year on the current timeline. As for that elusive commercial production
declaration, President Ramshaw would not be drawn as usual and hid behind the now standard
“I prefer to wait until we really are a profitable mine” line, but he did make it known that the
company has been running at breakeven for the last six months. That doesn’t cover the modest
capex deployed (mostly to Cerro de Oro) but does mean that they aren’t feeling any sort pof
liquidity pressure.
Chesapeake Gold (CKG.v): CKG also presented at the same OTC Markets Group Metals &
Mining Virtual Investor Conference as MAI (above) and replay link here (6) or here (7) and the
only new takeaway here is that the timeline for the met results has been pushed back to
“second half of 2022”, instead of the previous “around end of Q2” used in 2021 and the start of
this year. CEO Pangbourne mentioned that the first phase of testing was complete and they
were now running column leach tests on different crush sizes, but the implication of “in second
half of 2022 when we’re already a month into Q3 is that it’s going to be Q4. That’s annoying,
but it’s less of an issue at a company which is set on doing things the right way and one that’s
dialled back its cash burn to minimum levels while the met testing is on. With this amount of
ounces in play and my current minor foothold position, I don’t mind being patient.
Altiplano Metals (APN.v): APN rallied nicely last week, helped along by a pre-financials
production and revenues NR (8) that told of good levels of processing and a record quarterly
revenue from its pilot operation of U$968k.
APN: Farellon tonnages mined and sold, FY20 to date
14
7555
9844
5709
8296
0669 59701 58611 3119 0779
5508
09001
7407
42611
5367
98111
4527
57001
6766
24701
8847
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2
source: company filings
retrauq/sennot
cirtem
mined tonnes
sold/processed tonnes

Here’s the updated table and with the new wholly owned processing facility about to take over
as main revenues generator from its current toll milling deal with Chile’s Enami, those figures
should move a lot higher in Q3 and beyond.
APN: Avg received U$/lb Cu
period U$ revs Cu Lbs sold Avg/lb
1q20 0.321 188670 1.70
2q20 0.478 310255 1.54
3q20 0.827 460385 1.80
4q20 0.579 322130 1.80
1q21 0.544 277520 1.96
2q21 0.599 220660 2.71
3q21 0.561 221660 2.53
4q21 0.779 267927 2.91
1q22 0.857 281949 3.04
2q22 0.968 310062 3.12
source: APN data, IKN ests
The only issue on the horizon is the slow depletion
of its cash position and we may have to go
APN.v: Cash treasury per qtr
through a small raising to bridge the gap and 5
allow APN to continue with its development plans 4.5
4 and exploration activities. Holding for the moment,
3.5
all the same. 3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
The Copper Basket
After thirty weeks of 2022, The Copper Basket shows a loss of 44.23% level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/22 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Copper Mtn CMMC.to 3.42 210.166 340.47 1.62 -52.6%
2 Western Copper WRN.to 2.00 151.451 275.64 1.82 -9.0%
3 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.77 88.118 273.17 3.10 -17.8%
4 Nevada Copper NCU.to 0.71 448.437 165.92 0.37 -47.9%
5 Oroco Res OCO.v 2.04 203.4 142.38 0.70 -65.7%
6 Regulus Res. REG.v 1.06 101.845 91.66 0.90 -15.1%
7 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.84 114.495 88.16 0.77 -8.3%
8 Meridian Min MNO.to 1.18 153.735 76.87 0.50 -57.6%
9 Hot Chili HCH.v 1.53 109.223 73.18 0.67 -56.2%
10 Kutcho Copper KC.v 0.88 103.94 37.42 0.36 -59.1%
11 C3 Metals CCCM.v 0.16 645.379 35.50 0.055 -65.6%
12 Doré Copper DCMC.v 0.79 66.123 25.13 0.38 -51.9%
13 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.58 79.24 23.77 0.30 -48.3%
14 QC Copper QCCU.v 0.34 129.06 20.00 0.155 -54.4%
15 Coast Copper COCO.v 0.13 41.335 2.48 0.06 -53.8%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg -44.23%
15
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1
source: company filings/IKN ests
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The Copper Basket caught the tailwinds and rebounded along with the metals and the general
mining market, with ten winners on the week
(CMMC.to, OCO.v, NCU.to, WRN.to, MNO.to, 10% The Copper Basket 2022, weekly evolution
HCH.v, REG.v, DCMC.v, ECU.v, QCCU.v), one 0%
unchanged stock (CCCM.v) and four losers -10%
(MARI.to, ALDE.v, KC.v, COCO.v) from the 15
-20%
listed. Six of the winners came with double figure
-30%
percentage gains, with Nevada Copper (NCU.to up
-40%
54.2%) best by a long way and followed by Hot
-50%
Chili (HCH.v up 17.5%), Copper Mountain
-60%
(CMMC.to up 14.9%), Regulus (REG.v up 11.1%),
QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v up 10.7%) and
Western Copper & Gold (WRN.to up 10.3%).
After top-ticking the market after doubling down on its “copper is the new oil call late in 2021,
has Goldman Sachs managed to bottom tick the market, too? Two weeks ago in IKN687 while
reporting on the sell-off that had just
become the worst in percentage terms
since the 2008 GFC (incredible in itself),
The Vampire Squid decided to lower its in
three month target from U$8,650/mt to
U$6,700/mt (or U$3.04lb), as well as
other adjustments to its six month and 12
month targets. As things turned out, the
HGU22 contract managed to get down to
U$3.15/lb before reverting and after the
constructive way in which is trod water to
last weekend (see IKN688), shifted back
into buy mode in no uncertain terms last
week and ended Friday at its highs of
U$3.59/lb. That’s a big turnaround and
while a direct V-shaped recovery back to
U$4.40/lb is unlikely, the appetite for real physical copper was clear as China came back to the
market in order to secure supply for end users.
That’s what these pages has expected for a while and the upturn came for the reasons we’d
posited, too. The house mistake was to think that the market would push copper as low as it
did in the extended bear market drop, but that’s the kind of mistake a fundies guy like myself
tends to leave themselves open to. We’ve banged on about the likelihood of a Keynesian-driven
response from China Central Planning and sure enough, the news of a U$44Bn (with a B) fund
specifically dedicated to improving the housing market and shoring up both construction and
the secondary market was enough to start the rally. Here’s a small snippet from Reuters on the
news (9):
Copper prices are expected to rebound further in the coming months after heavy
losses, a Reuters poll showed, as China unleashes more infrastructure spending and
other stimulus for the economy.
News of more infrastructure projects and support for China’s property market boosted
copper prices this week.
I like the bit when they say, “Expected to rebound further”. All this is hardly a new subject on
these pages and without using that whiny excuse, “I wasn’t wrong, just early” we note as one
example how IKN 683 dated June 19th the passage that noted how opper wouldn’t feel the
same type of “demand destruction pressures as crude oil because copper is far from the only
“ingredient” in end product sold to the consumer. In other words, they may be the requisite
“50lb of copper in a Tesla” but there’s 99% of crude oil in the gallon of fuel you just bought for
your ICE car. We also noted in IN683 that in the modern world of macroeconomic control
“…when the going gets tough, the tough get Keynesian” and sure enough, the housing stimulus
16
ts1naJ ht9naJ ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6bef ht31 ht02 ht72 t6raM ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3rpA ht01 ht71 ht42 1yam ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5nuj ht21 ht91 ht62 dr3yluj ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13
source: IKN calcs

policy nobody cared about six weeks ago is the same policy that helped copper rally last week.
We made the same type of noises in IKN685 dated July 3rd as well as pointing to the upcoming
Chinese Communist Party conference happening in November, at which President Xi is set to be
anointed President for life and back then, we said Xi would be keen on getting his country’s
Chinese economy back on rails by that time. True then, true now, the only difference is how the
backdrop is used as justification for a price rise, instead of ignored while it drops. Oh well.
We now move to copper inventory data and as it’s the end of the month, we begin with the
long-term charts. The first chart is the main story, as the gradual decadence of inventory in all
three systems becomes clear with the SHFE segment becoming a thin line indeed.
Key Cu inventory aggregate, 2012 to date
1000000
900000
800000
700000
600000
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
17
21.naJ ram yam luj pes von 31.naJ ram yam luj pes von 41.naj ram yam luj pes von 51.naj ram yam luj pes von 61.naj ram yam luj pes von 71.naj ram yam luj pes von 81
naj
ram yam luj pes von 91
naj
ram yam luj pes von 02
naj
ram yam luj pes von 12
naj
ram yam luj pes von 22
naj
ram yam luj
Mt Cu
Comex
Shanghai
LME
source: Cochilco
The percentage distribution chart has less to say at the moment, but we do see how the LME
still carries most of the total inventory and despite the increasing importance of SGHFe and its
dwindling stockpiles, it’s the LME that continues to set the price
Copper inventories: percentage held per exchange
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
21.naJ ram yam luj pes von 31.naJ ram yam luj pes von 41.naj ram yam luj pes von 51.naj ram yam luj pes von 61.naj ram yam luj pes von 71.naj ram yam luj pes von 81
naj
ram yam luj pes von 91
naj
ram yam luj pes von 02
naj
ram yam luj pes von 12
naj
ram yam luj pes von 22
naj
ram yam luj
LME Shanghai Comex source: Cochilco
The longer-term charts don’t have so much to say when copper has just rebounded off a price
bottom, we need to consider the nearer-term dynamics. We move to the regular weekly look at
world copper inventories data and after last weekend “more evidence that a bottom in copper
may be in”, this week now gets to underscore the reasons why copper bounced so well
 Another significant drawdown in world copper stocks this week, with the three world
copper systems losing a net of 18,020mt to close the week at 223,043mt.
LME: Cu tonnage under cancelled warrant
 All three systems lost inventory but the big
action was again here at the SHFE, where
stocks lost another 13,325mt and closed
Friday at 37,025mt. In the space of two
weeks, the SHFE has seen nearly half its physical stocks leave the warehouses and
we’re back at the pre-Chinese New Year
“scrape the barrel” levels again. The copper
market has turned on a sixpence.
 The LME lost 3,350mt to close Friday at
130,575mt and its cancelled warrant number also dropped slightly. The LME is treading
00142 52074 57334 00714 52045 05205 52027 52418 52926 05694 57332 52271 05761 52511 57471 52581 52862 00642
100000
90000
80000
70000
60000
50000 40000 30000
20000
10000
0
dr3rpa ht01 ht71 ht42 1.yam ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5nuj ht21 ht91 ht62 dr3yluj ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13
mt Cu
source: Cochilco

water and the real action is in Shanghai.
 We got another drawdown over at the Comex, with a loss of 1,345mt and the weekend
total of 55,443mt.
Here are the dedicated SHFE charts and the direction is now clear. One of the original reasons
behind Goldman’s “Copper Is The New Oil” call dated April 13th 2021 (PDF on this link (10)) is
that stockpiles would deplete to net zero at some time in 2023. The more I look at the direction
the SHFE is taking, the, better their original insight looks.
Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2014 to date
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
18
31'13ceD dr32 ht02 ht51 ht01 ht5tco ht03 ht52 dn22 ht71 ht21 ht6pes ts1von 5102ht72ced ts12 ht71 ht21 ht7guA dn2tcO ht4ceD ht92 ht62 ts12 ht61 ht01 7102
ht5von
ts13 ht52 dn22 ht42 ht91 ht41 ht9 9102
dr3bef
ts13 ht62 ts12 ht51 ht01 0202ht5naj 0202ts1ram ht62 ts12 ht61 ht11 0202ht6ced ts13 ht82 dr32 ht81 ht21 ht7 2202dn2naj ht72 ht42 ht91
Mt Cu
|
source: Cochilco
SHFE copper inventory levels, 2018 to 2022
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
MT Cu 2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
source: Cochilco data
Now for some notes on a couple of our basket stocks:
Nevada Copper (NCU.to): This ten-day NCU chart shows the three stages of its week:
1) NCU moved up from 25c to 30c on Monday
2) The stock spent the week at 29c and 30c
3) It rocketed higher on Friday

There was no news, no obvious social media pump going on and we’re still waiting for a 2q22
financial and MD&A filing that may well show a company is a full-scale cash crunch. NCU was
unprofitable even at U$4.00/lb copper prices, so even the recent metal price rebound wouldn’t
be enough to bring its financial situation onto an even keel. The big players behind this stock
(Pala Investments) have a vested interest in giving the balance sheet some equity and the
trading looked weird enough to be large-player manipulation. Definitely not a stock I will buy or
chase, chartists are allowed to disagree but anyone who can read a balance sheet will tell you
to stay away.
Hot Chili (HCH.v): HCH published its Australian-style quarterly update NR on Friday (11), in
which it recapped a lot of the information on its drill program we’d already seen from newsflow
NRs of the previous weeks. It confirmed the drill
count at Costa Fuego was down from five and three
to just one operating drill rig at the moment, new
strategy with a view to conserving treasury capital
through the current rough period now that programs
at its main and satellite targets are complete (with
plenty of assay news pending, it seems). As for the
future, HCH now expects to deliver its PFS in 1q23
and says its cash position of A$23.6m as at end 2q22
is enough treasury to keep operations fully funded
into late 2023, so no reason to dilute shares in 2022.
As for trading, the Australian listing is a better guide
as for one thing, it does better volumes and for another, Friday in the TSXV saw HCH pop by
9.8% on just 500 shares traded all day.
The Producer Basket
After thirty weeks of 2022, the Producer Basket shows a loss of 16.05% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/22 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 62.02 797.44 36.11 45.28 -27.0%
2 Barrick GOLD 19.00 1779 28.00 15.74 -17.2%
3 Franco-Nevada FNV 138.29 191.192 24.47 127.98 -7.5%
4 Agnico Eagle AEM 53.14 454.904 19.56 42.99 -19.1%
5 Wheaton PM WPM 42.93 450.3 15.45 34.30 -20.1%
6 Gold Fields GFI 10.99 887.72 8.17 9.20 -16.3%
7 Kinross Gold KGC 5.81 1296.5 4.42 3.41 -41.3%
8 B2Gold BTG 3.93 1055.6 3.71 3.51 -10.7%
9 Alamos Gold AGI 7.69 392.503 3.10 7.89 2.6%
10 Sandstorm SAND 6.20 191.4 1.14 5.95 -4.0%
All prices and stock quotes in U$ Port. avg -16.05%
They all went up except for Newmont (NEM), which got whacked hard on Monday due to its
underwhelming 2q22 financial results and forward
guidance on costs and was sold while others were
bought later in the week. That means nine winners
and once again the smaller market caps such as
Alamos (AGI up 9.4%) Sandstorm (SAND up 8.2%)
and B2Gold (BTG up 8.0%) did generally better than
the larger caps, with only Agnico (AEM up 6.7%) and
its decent financials on Wednesday evening managing
to buck that trend. That’s two weeks of the same
action and to underscore, here (right) is how GDXJ
19

has out-performed GDX in the last ten days and for more, see Newmont Agnico and Barrick
below. On a rebound week in which gold improved by 2.13% (GLD proxy) and the junior sector
ETF GDXJ by a cool 9.2%, you’d expect more from the GDX than its 3.4% improvement.
The 2022 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
35% comparative to GDX control
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%
Newmont (NEM), Agnico (AEM) and Barrick (GOLD): The world’s three biggest publically
quoted PM miners all demand comment this weekend and, in order to get them out the way as
succinctly as possible, we roll them up into one section. Let’s call this wrap The Good, The Bad
and the Unknown.
NEM: We start with the bad and as noted in previous editions, Newmont (NEM) shares were
already under pressure before last Monday’s earnings report. For example, after another sub-
par performance to peers, last week I mused on whether the bad news were already baked into
NEM stock. Wrong, it wasn’t:
The market took NEM to the woodshed, despite seeing top line revenues in line with
expectations, mostly to the rise in costs across its operations and guidance for inflation to push
costs higher in future quarters. Net EPS was U$0.46 and short of analyst consensus of 60c, with
AISC up by 16% and as expected, Boddington was hit by Covid-related absentees which didn’t
help in the slightest. So on the one side 2q22 was soft, the other negative was guidance which
began with a new production target of 6.0m oz gold for the year, down from 6.2m oz. Then
came the costs news and here’s an excerpt of the NR (12) (CAS = Costs Attributable to Sales):
Updated 2022 CAS outlook is expected to be $900 per gold ounce and $750 per co-
product gold equivalent ounce. Updated 2022 AISC outlook is expected to be $1,150
per gold ounce and $1,050 per co-product gold equivalent ounce. The revised outlook
includes the impact from lower production volumes and higher direct operating costs
related to labor, energy, consumables and supplies as a result of sustained inflationary
pressures.
Those numbers are up by U$75/oz across the board (and for the Gold Equivalent Ounces, it’s
U$100/oz). To the upside, NEM has dropped its development capital estimate from U$1.4Bn to
20
ts1naJ ht9naJ ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6bef ht31 ht02 ht72 t6ram ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3rpa ht01 ht71 ht42 1yam ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5nuj ht21 ht91 ht62 dr3luj ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13
The 2022 Producer Basket: Percentage difference
between GDX benchmark & basket (negative = IKN ahead) 5.0%
4.5%
ikn 4.0%
gdx control 3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
-0.5%
-1.0%
source: NYSE, IKN Calcs
ts1naJ ht9naJ ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6bef ht31 ht02 ht72 t6ram ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3rpa ht01 ht71 ht42 1yam ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5nuj ht21 ht91 ht62 dr3luj ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13
source: IKN calcs, NYSE data

U$1.1Bn for 2022, but that’s mostly due to deferring development of projects (Yanacocha
Sulphides and Ahafo North) and that means its money they will eventually spend.
The bottom line to the NEM quarter is that I think
they got a rough deal from the market, first in the
run-up to earnings, then on the day and finally in
the way the stock was sat upon and sold down
while those around benefited from the gold
rebound, Fed Wednesday onward. Yes costs were
up and yes that’s not good, but it’s not as if NEM is
in rough financial waters and any company is
allowed a soft quarter along the way. This chart for
NEM vs GDX in July (right) shows the breach and
there’s no real reason why NEM should be 20%
lower than the median on the back of these
numbers, last week was more about a vicious circle of negative sentiment that over-punished
and oversold the market leader.
AEM: Moving from the bad to the good, the AEM results NR made the blog last Wednesday
evening (13) in the post “Agnico (AEM) brings some PM sector relief” (the clue is in the title)
and as seen in the chart above, the AEM share price had been picking up drag due to the
negative results from NEM two days previously, but once AEM opened for business Thursday it
quickly snapped back and finished the week in-line with the GDX and market average. As for
the AEM numbers and NR (14), as well as in-line production and costs, AEM brought cheer by
guiding costs inside previous projections in this way:
Expected payable gold production in 2022 remains unchanged at between 3.2 and 3.4
million ounces with total cash costs per ounce and AISC per ounce between $725 and
$775 and $1,000 and $1,050, respectively. Given that inflationary pressures are
expected to continue in the second half of 2022, the Company believes that total cash
costs per ounce and AISC per ounce could trend towards the top end of these ranges.
So some cost increase expected but not too much and that messaging was enough to please a
market that wanted a winner.
GOLD: We’ve done the good and the bad, now for the unknown and a heads-up on the sectors
remaining major earnings event, that of Barrick (GOLD) that will report on Monday August 8th
(i.e. in two Mondays’ time) and when one considers how GOLD traded against NEM last week
(in fact, since GOLD’s production NR two weeks ago) I can’t help but think Barrick is setting up
for a bad earnings day when its turn comes around. We know from its production NR that it has
guided costs higher by between 3% and 5% AISC for the rest of the year but the way NEM’s
numbers came in suggests that Barrick may show savings from other places rather than its
Jewel in the Crown, Nevada Gold Mines (and NGM just “retired” its general manager last week).
Under normal circumstances, as NEM and GOLD are closely tied they tend to match in cost
performance, so a market disappointed with NEM suggests the same is about to happen to
GOLD. Either way, those into risk-adjusted plays may want to consider a pair trade of Long
NEM/short ABX into the Barrick earnings (and be on by Friday).
Alamos Gold (AGI) (and Kinross): Along with Agnico (AEM), Wednesday also saw both
Kinross Gold (KGC) and Alamos Gold (AGI) reporting their quarters. We’ve done a lot of Special
K in recent weeks and this isn’t a publication normally dedicated to the larger caps, so the
quickest of words on that stock to note its numbers came in okay and generally in-line, with the
market allowing its stock price to improve by 4.9% on the week, which was in-line with peers.
Today it’s the turn of Alamos to get plaudits after a good quarter and numbers which pleased
the market, as AGI managed to join AEM’s good vibes on Wednesday evening and avoid talk of
heavy cost headwinds. Production of 103k oz was in-line with expectations but the winner was
its AISC of U$1,170/oz. That beat the street, was lower than 1q22 and allowed the company to
report adjusted net earnings of U$29.3m, or an EPS of 7c. Its stock price got its reward (right)
21

on Thursday and by comparing its squiggly line to those of GDX and GDXJ, it’s telling how AGI
tracked a GDX laden with NEM and GOLD until
Thursday, then the unfettered stock that
returned good numbers immediately broke
upward and began acting like a member of the
Tier1-less GDXJ.
It has some exposure to more difficult
jurisdictions (e.g. the Yaqui mine, just coming
online) but the reasons to own this company
stock are the Young-Davidson and Island Gold
mines, which are in the right place for the
market’s new political risk tolerance. The clear
new tendency is for a market that will pay
higher multiples and premiums to companies
that are located in the best and most secure
jurisdictions, a trend that suits AGI down to the ground.
The TinyCaps List
After thirty weeks of 2022, the TinyCaps show a loss of 28.16% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/22 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Aurelius Min AUL.v 0.24 45.836 4.58 0.100 -58.3%
Golden Pursuit GDP.v 0.13 34.638 5.37 0.155 19.2%
Infield Min INFD.v 0.06 48.445 2.18 0.045 -25.0%
Kingfisher Met KFR.v 0.30 103.007 22.66 0.22 -26.7%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.12 57.296 5.16 0.09 -25.0%
Manitou Gold MTU.v 0.06 344.57 12.06 0.035 -41.7%
Melkior Res MKR.v 0.295 24.011 6.24 0.26 -11.9%
Precipitate Gold PRG.v 0.105 129.322 10.99 0.085 -19.0%
Signature Res SGU.v 0.07 238.4 4.77 0.02 -71.4%
Winshear Gold WINS.v 0.08 61.585 4.00 0.065 -18.8%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg -28.16%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $20m. They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a
little and allowed sub-U$20m market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, but it was a particularly depressing exercise to trawl through the whole of the TSXV and find companies
that are small enough, but with life in them. The vast majority of sub-$20m stocks are broken stocks, either
traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2020. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
Another week of mixed results for the TinyCaps, 15% TinyCaps, 2022 weekly tracker
with five winners (AUL.v, INFD.v, MTU.v, MKR.v, 10%
5%
PRG.v) that remained inside recent trading
0%
ranges, three UNCH stocks (KFR.v, LMS.v,
-5%
WINS.v) and two losers (GDP.v, SGU.v) and the -10%
biggest move by some distance was drop in -15%
Signature Resources (SGU.v down 42.9%). -20%
-25%
-30%
22
-35%
dn2naJ ht9
naJ
ht61naJ dr32 ht03 ht6bef ht31 ht02 ht72 ht6ram ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3rpa ht01 ht71 ht42 ts1yam ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5nuj ht21 ht91 ht62 dr3yluj ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13
source: IKN calcs, TSX data

Melkior Resources (MKR.v): MKR filed its latest quarter last week and reported C$2.8m cash
at bank as well as a tiny $80k spent in the quarter to May 31st, which is good to see. As noted
last weekend, its delayed deal to option into this year’s target has now been approved and as
they’ve kept burn rate low, they still have the cash to run a meaningful exploration program. At
this tiny market cap and the tight share structure, it wouldn’t need much to send MKR higher.
Signature Resources (SGU.v): Somebody threw in the towel:
SGU is the opposite of MKR in that it got plenty of social media and insto rah-rah as it raised
capital last year at 16.5c (flow through) and 7c earlier this year (upsized from $1m to $2m due
to demand). All that money looks badly spent now, but in the same way we noted the selling in
Goldshore (GSHR.v) above in Stocks to Follow, it’s this type of dump that offers opportunity for
the nimble trader (though at 2c apiece, you can’t go into this thinking you’re about to daytrade
yourself into millions). That pattern of 2.5m or so share sold at quite literally any price is what
an exasperated seller look like, the type of person who’ll take any price just to get out and close
the book on a loser. So be it, but abnormal selling pressure such as this offers a buying window
for a small player looking to flip some shares back at the market later (and while Lingman Lake
might not be the Bee’s Knees, this corporate structure is worth way more than its current $5m
market cap. Not a trade for me, but I’m confident we’ll see this showing a strong green number
this time next weekend…or maybe in two weeks’ time .
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future
I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
Argentina: A major political shake-up
Let’s try to do this as concisely as possible. Three weeks ago Argentina’s FinMin and loyalist to
President Alberto Fernández, Martín Guzmán, resigned. This was a second major setback to the
Alberto government after the previous resignation of “superminister” of Productive
Development, Matias Kulfas. Three weeks ago ex-FinMin Guzmán was replaced by Silvina
Batakis, with ex-Presidential candidate and Argentina’s ambassador to Brazil, Daniel Scioli,
drafted in by President Alberto Fernandez to become the new Minister of Productive
Development.
The problem was that neither the markets nor the country of Argentina bought the rushed
changes. We saw the “Dolar Blue” rocket skyward on the new rounds of instability and that,
along with “other politics” (long story, but it involves CFK) meant that last week we got an even
bigger political upheaval. Even as Silvana Bakatis was in The USA in new negotiations with the
IMF over Argentina’s burgeoning debt situation (theatre’s a big rollover moment coming up this
September, default isn’t out of the realms of possibility), Alberto caused a political earthquake
by replacing her even before she’d flown back (in fact she’s been shifted over to become the
new President of Argentina’s Central Bank and the ex-head heard he’d lost his job by WhatsApp
about five minutes before going onstage for a big conference speech…hilarity ensued). Her job
23

has gone to Sergio Massa, who has also been put in charge of the Ministry of Productive
Development, with Scioli sent back to be Brazilian ambassador again.
If you managed to follow that, it means the Centre-left politician Sergio Massa, one of the
higher profile politicos in the country and one who has been at loggerheads with CFK and her
Peronist party left wing loyalists for many years, has been handed enormous powers as the
Superminister to beat them all (though apparently Massa and CFK have made up and are now
BFFs). Politically, this big move weakens President Fernández over the near term but financially,
the announcement went down well with the markets and Argentina’s Country Risk premium for
bonds, the official USD forex as well as the unofficial Dolar Blue rate all dropped sharply on the
news. The hope is that Massa will project a more business-friendly image and, as a relative
heavyweight in the Argentina political world (as well as having designs on the President’s job
himself) he’ll be able to negotiate more successfully with the IMF and other country creditors,
as well as being able to attract more hard dollar investments into the country. That last point is
where these things matter to us, the potential FDI players on the outside looking in. A
weakened left wing of the Peronist party is ostensibly good for Argentina’s investment climate
and Massa’s entry will be all about keeping Argentina out of default. He’s politician rather than
an economist or financial expert and in that, his drafting in to the FinMin’s role has already been
compared to the way non-economist
Henrique Cardoso was given Brazil’s FinMin
in Brazil in the 1990’s, dragged the country
out of a similar debt crisis and went on to
become a successful President. But back to
Massa, whose first tasks are to 1) tame an
inflation rate now running at 8% per month
(yes, that says month and not year) and 2)
attract what Argentina tends to call “Friendly
Dollars” into the country. The initial market
reaction says that he could
Last week’s major reshuffle means Argentina
has shifted moderately to the right, but it’s
still in hands of an officially left wing
administration (worth remembering). Alberto
is now looking toward the elections next year
and as well as the established right wing, has the libertarian-style populist Javier Milei to
contend with. He’s an independent who has been polling well and his plans include dollarizing
the Argentina economy and scrapping the Peso (who remembers “convertabilidad” in the
1990s?). In a normal country, last week’s political upheaval would be good news for FDI and
that’s how the markets reacted, but Argentina is far from normal and the way in which the
political left has had to swallow hard in order to accept this change in direction (under orders
from CFK) means that if the new Alberto/Massa duo doesn’t deliver economic improvement or
alleviate its situation with major creditors (first and foremost the IMF), their sharp knives will be
out before the election campaign starts in 2023.
The bottom line: Last week was good news in the near-term for FDI in Argentina and that very
much includes the mining sector, which is already one of the chosen routes with which the
government is trying to attract hard dollar investment in the country. The recent investments in
the lithium space and the Lundin Mining Josemaria project have whetted the administration’s
appetite and they will want more, or at least firm commitments from private FDI in the mining
space with which they can go and help negotiations with the IMF.
Chile’s Constitutional referendum update
The September 4th referendum in Chile to either accept or reject the draft Constitution will be
hot news for the next five weeks as the official campaign begins on August 5th. This includes TV
slots and will allow political players to voice their opinions, but importantly the sitting
government is not allowed to form opinions on the referendum. This hasn’t stopped the Boric
24

government from making pro-Accept noises in the last couple of weeks to the point where an
investigation was started by Chile’s election
ombudsman into whether Boric and his
cabinet were trying to influence the result.
You can be sure they want to and will likely
make as many coded references to their
position as possible, which leads us to the
latest voter intention survey from Chile’s
reliable Cadem (15), which has cut the lead
enjoyed by “Reject” to 47% vs 39% for
“Approve”. The other notable aspect of the
latest poll is how the undecided voter
segment grew by three points, to 14%. Overall, the previous fifteen point gap is now down to
eight points and may point to a tighter race than expected. Also FWIW, a non-poll predictive
mathematical model run by Chilean political website Espacio Politico (16), one that used
tendencies and vote results from previous elections and last years referendum, last week
predicted that “Approve” would eventually win with 55% of the vote. That’s something for FDI
on the outside to consider, too.
Brazil: Lula may win in the first round
An election that’s easier to call is Brazil’s presidential election in October and in its latest poll,
the big Brazilian newspaper Datafolha guided to a valid vote total of 53% for Lula da Silva,
versus 32% for Jair Bolsonaro (17). The valid vote totals back out the “won’t vote/spoil
ballot/vote-in-white” answers and if it comes to pass, Lula wouldn’t even need a second round
run-off to become the next President. Whether Bolsonaro and his fanatical hard right wing
supporters accepted such a result is another question, however.
Colombia: One week to go
Next Sunday August 7th Colombia’s President Ivan Duque hands over to Gustavo Petro and
among other vacancies, Petro has yet to announce who will be the next Minister of Energy and
Mining. According to the political jungledrums, Petro’s preferred choice was Antonio Navarro ,
president of the Green Alliance Party, but he turned the job down citing health reasons. The
current favourite for nomination is one Ricardo Roa, a hydrocarbons executive who ran Bogotá’s
city gas company while Petro was Mayor of the city, but whoever gets the nod it now seems
clear that the job is not going to a “hard rock person”, instead the oil&gas sector will get
preference. Indeed, the Vice-Ministry of Mines may be one of the most difficult posts to
designate, considering Petro’s attitude towards the mining sector. We remind readers that his
anti-mining stance is not confined to open pit operations, as this is the same candidate who
stated this in the live TV debate before the round one vote this year (18):
“We are going to revise mining titles, because they are national assets over which we
have rights as the State. All mining concession titles will enter into a process of
revision and those that have been damaging the environment or have not attended the
community consulting process are illegal titles.”
The IKN Weekly has tried its best to warn its readership during 2022, as from next Sunday the
bad news becomes real for the Colombian mining sector.
Peru does vacations and MMG improves CSR
It’s Fiestas Patrias week in Peru, the school winter holiday that follows Independence Day when
Lima escapes the city en masse and goes visiting other places (Cancún for the rich, a couple of
days visiting relatives the family hometowns for others). Political wrangling takes a back seat
until the kids are back at college but when Congress resumes it will have a new leader in the
form of Lady Camones (still her real first and last names) of Cesar Acuña’s APP party. She won
the majority vote after two fairly straightforward rounds on Tuesday afternoon and that’s bad
news for President Pedro Castillo, as Congress won’t hold back on the attacks against him.
They are set to get worse too. From his inauguration in July 2021 to November 2021, Bruno
25

Pacheco was Pedro Castillo’s private presidential secretary, as well as being a close personal
friend of the president in previous years. Pacheco went on the run in January this year when a
warrant for his arrest was issued for bribery charges after U$20,000 in cash was discovered in
the bathroom of his offices in the Presidential Palace (yes, these people really are that stupid).
He had been on the run until turning himself in late last weekend via a plea bargain that has
allowed him to turn State’s witness. He’s been singing since then and unofficial (but reliable)
word is that he has spilled the beans on several schemes, including 10 police officers paying
U$20,000 apiece for promotion to become Generals, or favouritism deals for 12 members of
Congress for public works contracts in their regions, as well as the classic LatAm scam that
awards State civil works construction contracts to private companies willing to pay in unmarked
brown envelopes. Two in particular concerning tenders for bridge construction look as though
the corruption goes right to the top.
In other words, nothing unusual in the way politics happens in Peru (or in South America for
that matter) but the difference here is that Pedro Castillo is viscerally hated by the Lima
establishment. With other Presidents and other administrations at other times, they would turn
a blind eye but such is the disdain for the current President that they are out to get him in any
way possible (and his pleading of “but that’s just the way it is” isn’t going to work). It’s an open
secret in Lima how Cesar Acuña (via Lady Camones) wants Castillo out by the end of this year
at the latest and the most recent rumour is of an impeachment bill using Peru’s vague but
powerful charge of “moral incapacity” that may already have enough Congressional votes to
succeed this time.
Finally in Peru, we may be seeing a little common sense descend upon Las Bambas. Even
though the latest deadline for talks between the mine owned by China’s MMG and locals has
expired and threats of new protests and roadblocks are in the air, the company seems to be
adopting a new and more conciliatory attitude (and without the “help” of a national government
that tends to add to problems rather than improve them). Away from the headlines last week,
the CFO of MMG, Ross Carroll, mentioned on the company’s earnings Conference Call (19) that
while the company may have given payments to some communities close to the operations,
there are plenty of locals that haven’t received any sort of compensation and that is a root
cause of ill will. So instead of lump sums that tend to “disappear”, they are considering a new
method based around transparent annuity payments to organized board and committees that
would be more easily controlled by those who are supposed to benefit. He said:
“We’ll be trying to look at annuity and royalty type schemes where the payments
continue for a number of years”, and “What we inherited and we continued with was a
series of lump-sum type of payments which, obviously, lump-sum money can get
spent. And once the money is spent, it encourages people to come back for more.”
So far at least, we haven’t seen protests or roadblocks return. Long may it continue that way.
Market Watching
Newcore Gold (NCAU.v): The right place waiting for the right time
The IKN Weekly has followed Newcore Gold (NCAU.v) closely since IKN670 and it’s now part of
the Stocks to Follow Watchlist, so even though I do not own personally yet it’s a story that
should be known to most readers but even
so, it’s high time we caught up on progress
at this company because the recent price
drop (right) in light of last week’s potential
rebound for the sector, along with the
company’s own newsflow, brings NCAU
back into play.
Last week’s NR from NCAU (20) was a long
one to mark the completion of its 90,000m
26

drill program, one that took over a year to complete and has seen plenty of successes along the
way. The NR went over several aspects of the program and its achievements as well as
rounding up a lot of the pending hole data (some were good, some were the type of hole that’s
often left to the end to report) and while it’s unfair to excerpt just one small section, here’s the
main takeaway quote as NCAU looks forward:
The largest drill program to ever be completed on the Project was successful in
highlighting the district scale potential across the 216 km2 property and the strong
potential to delineate additional resources at Enchi. Results from the drill program will
be incorporated into an updated Mineral Resource Estimate expected to be completed
by the end of 2022. Newcore is now planning the next phase of discovery and resource
expansion drilling at Enchi.
To supplement the NR, NCAU CEO Luke Alexander also gave a web presentation last week that
you can find on this link (21). The presentation was pitched mostly at newcomers to the story
and went over much of the information we’ve seen before in previous webinars and/or
corporate presentations (management profile, Ghana and its good country risk, ESG work done,
etc). As for commentary on drilling, CEO Alexander outlined the four main objectives of the
extensive drill campaign…
1) expand resource area
2) move inferred to M+I
3) three new discoveries
4) test high grade at depth
…and noted a few useful numbers for the upcoming Mineral Resource Estimate (MRE) slated for
release at the end of 2022 that should then be followed by a PFS. The numbers work like this:
 110,000m of drilling went into last year’s PEA.
 Those included around 20,000m of the recently completed 2021/2022 90,000m drill
program.
 That leaves around 70,000m of drilling to add to the current Resource Estimate, as
used in the PEA.
 Of those 70,000m, around 40,000m were dedicated to resource expansion work.
The 2021 PEA was predicated on a resource of 1.4m oz gold. According to CEO Alexander and
the back of his own envelope calculations, NCAU and its 40km of expansion drilling is looking to
improve the resource by 40% when the resource update is published at the end of the year,
with those ounces forming the baseline for the PFS. If we take that 40% as exact, it would
imply a new resource of 1.96m oz gold, which gives us a ballpark of a PFs based on 2m oz gold.
We also know NCAU is highly confident of expanding that resource further and has always
talked of 3.5m or 4m oz of achievable resource just as surface pit targets (i.e. not taking into
account the deeper and higher grading sulphide mineralization that it’s already starting to
outline).
For more on NCAU, check out the NR, that decent
Webinar overview from CEO Alexander and you
might want to add the latest corporate presentation
(22) to your list of literature. As for trading, NCAU
reacted well to Wednesday NR as seen here, but
volume remains patchy and at 30c, there’s plenty of
damage still left to undo (you may recall this desk
being hot on the company’s prospects at 50c).
The bottom line: NCAU is hardly the only gold
exploreco that’s been whacked hard in the recent
sell-off, but with 138.1m shares out and a price of
30c this weekend, the market cap of C$41.4m (approx U$33m) gives you a lot of gold for not
much money. Reading between the lines allows us to assume an upcoming ballpark resource of
2m oz gold and while that will likely expand further as drilling progresses, those 2m oz are
27

robust enough to form the basis of a PFS. That PFS is the evolution of a “serious PEA” that used
conservative parameters (e.g U$1,650/oz gold) and with the newsflow to come set to de-risk
this project those aren’t just pie-in-the-sky ounces, instead they are solid and real in-situ gold
value for valued under a newly discounted market cap. We also have a reasonable idea of its
treasury position as in its most recent corporate
presentation, NCAU disclosed cash at C$6,5m as
16 NCAU.v: Working Capital per qtr
at July 12th (another sidebar advantage with this
14
company, they are admirably transparent when it
12
comes to disclosure and in my dealings with the C-
10
suite, they’ve always been straight shooters). Its
8
recent bought deal equity raise brought $5m to
6
treasury and with the major cash burn of drilling
4
now done with, that cash can see the company
2
well into 2023 if required.
0
Which leaves just one thing to state; my own
position and trading plans and this is basically a
repeat of the end of the note on Western Copper
& Gold (WRN.to), above in today’s main fundies section. While WRN is largely a copper trade
and NCAU is pure gold, the premise for entry for each this weekend is nearly identical, as are
the temptations. I don’t mind admitting that I’m close to buying this stock (at last) but also
freely admit to being a chicken with my money at the moment. The idea of building cash on the
sidelines was to make sure it gets deployed at the right macro time, not simply when stocks
look cheap and start to get perky. NCAU is high on my potential shopping list and while I may
regret being a coward and miss out on the cheapest prices, I’m going to wait a while longer
and watch the macro backdrop before making any new trades .
However and once again, your trading radar and instincts for the right entry point may be
better than mine (and that wouldn’t surprise me in the least by the way, I am under no illusions
about my track record for timing entry points badly) and if so, NCAU has a lot of gold and the
right pipeline of newsflow in the next couple of quarters to get its share price moving back up.
The right equation for a “leverage to gold” play is a large number of ounces under possession
compared to market cap and at U$17/oz in-situ, NCAU could triple and still offer good value for
its robustly economic resource. At these prices, a fine spec buy on further gold price upside.
Aris Gold (ARIS.to) is an obvious short, part three
I’ve done two editions on Aris Gold so this weekend I’m just going to run a quick note on the
ridiculous corporate move announced by Aris Gold (ARIS.to) and GCM Mining (GCM.to) on
Monday. Aris was spun out of GCM less than two years ago and now they are being fused back
together in the same way as the previous iterations of these companies did a decade ago,
always to the benefit of insiders and against shareholders. This constant spinning out and
regrouping is the M.O. of Serafino Iacono and the serial of corporate structures for his own
benefit. This deal makes ARIS an even better shorting target as it aggregates exposure to
Colombia under Petro, adds to the company debt pile and makes its market cap a bigger target
at which to aim.
Conclusion
IKN689 is done, we end with some bullet points:
 It’s good to report on a better week for mining stocks but the sudden assumption that
all will be well just by opposing the Fed position isn’t one that makes for a confident
baseline. I’d be happy to be wrong my lack confidence in last week’s move, but still
prefer to wait a while longer before deploying more cash. I’m long enough the junior
sector as it is.
28
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 tse22q2 tse22q3
source company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim

 Western Gold (WRN.to) has the same amount of upside potential as house favourite
Copper Mountain (CMMC.to) at the moment, but with much lower downside risk. Those
of you looking to trade around copper now have my best idea on the vehicle to use.
 Newcore and its thinner average volume wouldn’t be so easy to trade in and out, so its
charms are better considered over a medium term. With drilling done and the resource
update set for 4q22, here’s a place to get plenty of gold leverage at a discount.
 Avoid Colombia, please.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stock is Minera Alamos (MAI.v). Flash
updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best wishes, Mark
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/07/schedule-for-week-of-july-31-2022.html
(2) https://cumtn.com/investors/press-releases/2022/copper-mountain-mining-announces-q2-2022-financial-4440/
(3) https://www.westerncopperandgold.com/news-and-resources/news-release/western-copper-and-gold-announces-
positive-feasibility-on-casino/
(4) https://vic-mining-jul22.hubb.me/fe/schedule-builder/sessions/943617
(5) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tsa6wx6enks
(6) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=91J0i4KM6Gw
(7) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6eN_QApNIeo
(8) https://apnmetals.com/news/altiplano-reports-second-consecutive-quarter-of-record-revenues-at-farellon/
(9) https://www.mining.com/copper-price-expected-to-rebound-further-poll/
(10) https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/pages/copper-is-the-new-oil.html
(11) https://www.hotchili.net.au/investors/company-presentations/
(12) https://www.newmont.com/investors/news-release/news-details/2022/Newmont-Announces-Second-Quarter-2022-
Results/default.aspx
(13) https://iknnews.com/agnico-aem-brings-some-pm-sector-relief/
(14) https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/agnico-eagle-reports-second-quarter-2022-results-strong-operational-
performance-drives-record-quarterly-gold-production-production-and-cost-guidance-reiterated-for-2022-updated-detour-
lake-mine-plan-based-on-38-increase-in-mineral-reserves-836928232.html
(15) https://cadem.cl/estudios/rechazo-cae-a-47-5pts-y-la-brecha-con-el-apruebo-que-sube-a-39-2pts-se-acorta-de-
15pts-a-8pts-14-esta-indeciso-3pts/
(16) https://www.elclarin.cl/2022/07/29/sondeo-matematico-pronostica-triunfo-del-apruebo-en-plebiscito-de-salida/
(17) https://datafolha.folha.uol.com.br/
(18) https://www.semana.com/nacion/articulo/toda-la-titulacion-minera-va-a-entrar-en-revision-gustavo-petro/202242/
(19) https://www.asiafinancial.com/chinas-mmg-considers-annuities-for-peru-copper-mine
(20) https://newcoregold.com/news/newcore-gold-completes-90-000-metre-drill-program-significantly-expanding-the-
mineralized-footprint-at-the-enchi-gold-project/
(21) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6eN_QApNIeo
(22) https://newcoregold.com/site/assets/files/5557/newcore-gold-corporate-presentation.pdf
29

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Set-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Abr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
30

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Ago-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Set-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Ene-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Set-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Ene-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Set-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Ago-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Abr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Set-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Abr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Set-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
31

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-ago-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-ene-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-abr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-abr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-ene-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-ene-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-abr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-abr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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