IKN #688Premium

The IKN Weekly
Week 688, July 24th 2022
Contents
This Week: In Today’s Edition, Ranting the Wednesday FOMC.
Fundamental Analysis: Superior Gold (SGI.v) 2q22 production numbers.
Stocks to Follow: Aldebaran Resources (ALDE.v), Anacortes Mining (XYZ.v) and Goldshore
Resources (GSHR.v), Minera Alamos (MAI.v), Chesapeake Gold (CKG.v), Altiplano Metals
(APN.v), QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v), And Finally.
Copper Basket: Overview, Kutcho Copper (KC.v), Oroco Resources (OCO.v), Copper Mountain
(CMMC.to).
Producer Basket: Overview, Newmont (NEM), Agnico (AEM).
TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Winshear Gold (WINS.v), Kingfisher Metals (KFR.v).
Regional Politics: Chile’s royalty law issue, Chile’s permitting issue, Peru: Calm before the
storm, Brazil set for its very own A Grande Mentira, Ecuador: The problem with the current
agreement with indigenous locals.
Market Watching: Anacortes Mining (XYZ.v) gets killed on one bad hole, Los Andes Copper
(LA.v): Local friction, Belo Sun (BSX.to) and the never-ending story, Aris Gold (ARIS.to) is an
obvious short, part two.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
In Today’s Edition
 Will gold move up or down on this week’s FOMC? We won’t know until then, but the
case for an improved backdrop for gold and other metals even as The USA slips toward
recession is sketched out in today’s intro.
 Today’s fundies section looks at the weak numbers reported by Superior Gold (SGI.v)
on Tuesday and finds enough to like this stock at this price. Those of you looking with
enough risk tolerance are shown a bargain, I’m a holder.
 The story of mining headwinds in Chile starts to build and is beginning to attract wider
media attention. It’s not going to change course until the September 4th referendum
 Copper’s fundamentals are also showing some tentative signs of new bullishness.
Inventories are being drawn down and China is buying. That’s the Copper Basket today.
Ranting the Wednesday FOMC
You probably don’t need me to tell you, but we have an FOMC this coming week with the
results of the Fed deliberations on Wednesday 2pm ET and Jay Powell’s now customary presser
happening at 2:30pm and now to see how much I can rant about it without editing myself out.
Last weekend’s intro was an example of heavy pruning that eventually zeroed in on my
ignorance about the world macro backdrop for financial matters. It was published as a sort of
self-protest, after I’d spent a few hours going into the weeds on what might or might not move
1

the market in the days and weeks to come (e.g. “Seriously, how much do you want to know
about the US housing market from a (mostly LatAm) junior mining publication?”). Its final
messaged happened after making notes on a
bunch of subjects over a couple of days, then a
draft written on Saturday afternoon, then
catching myself in the mirror Sunday afternoon
and realization of how far this publication was
getting off its own track. However and ironically,
I managed to edit out a good predictions as one
of the edited out paragraphs was on the
European Central Bank (ECB), how 49 of 50
economists were predicting a 0.25% Eurozone
rate rise last weekend, one was predicting a
0.5% rise and that in my opinion we might get
the over. Sure enough Ms. Lagarde hiked rates
by half a point (1) and no matter whether you
believe my secretive prediction or not, the results
showed up here (right). The USD index (DXY) began to roll over before Thursday as by
Monday, there were more market soothsayers making public calls for the 0.5% hike. It’s one
thing to see the minor world currencies hike base rates and in recent weeks we’ve noted the
way Central Banks from South America’s major free float currencies (BRL, CLP, COP, PEN) have
hiked rates relentlessly. They are behest to the USD and provide no real competition for the
world’s reserve currency, aside from the carry trade potential (with the Brazilian Real the classic
there). It’s quite another to see the world’s #2 currency (China and Japan, change my mind)
step up to the plate and join in the fun, so with the ECB now raising its own flag quickly and
expected to follow up with “data driven” hikes for the rest of the year, it’s not all one-way traffic
for the dollar.
With the USD’s run crimped, a market that was bracing itself for a full point from the Fed and
by the end of the week calmed somewhat and by Friday we were getting things like this from
the financial experts and their reporters:
The run-up to the Fed’s meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday has already proven to be
dramatic, with traders at one point convinced a full point rate hike was coming. But Fed
officials pushed back on that view, and economists widely expect a second three-
quarter point hike to follow the one last month.
So “only” 75bps…oh aren’t we lucky . But it’s
still all about inflation and the yield curve spent
the whole of last week in its new negative
territory, franking the market’s growing
expectation for a recession and it’s at this point
that the story starts to get good for gold (and
its metallic friends). There’s a subtle change in
the narrative going on and we’re beginning to
see “Fight The Fed” back as a theme.
This Business Insider interview (2) with Mark
Spitznagel, head of a US hedge fund that’s so
famous even I’ve heard of it and its boss,
Universa Investments, crystallized a lot of my
thoughts about the current macro backdrop into
a couple of straightforward paragraphs of the type you sigh about and think, “Oh, wish I’d said
that”. The report comes under the long title “Mark Spitznagel says we should expect inflation to
be 'elevated forever.' The hedge fund chief calls the Fed's bluff on raising rates enough to tame
it, and told us how he thinks investors should really approach risk mitigation” which was
enough to get me to click through, this is the bit that matters:
"The Fed is actually trying to lead us to believe that they are prepared to tighten into a
2

recession, which of course is a ridiculous prospect," Spitznagel said. "And I think the
Fed knows they're not going to do this. And the market ultimately, I think, will come to
that conclusion."
The catch-22 of this situation is that inflation is also a huge problem. The Federal
Reserve has to grapple between sending the economy into a deep recession or living
with inflation. He believes the latter will be the outcome. It doesn't mean we're not
headed into a recession, just not an obvious one, he noted.
"I do think that we're going to probably see it [inflation] come down a little bit, but I think
we should expect it to be elevated. Frankly, I think we should expect it to be elevated
forever, like basically forever," Spitznagel said.
Past cycles have played out like this: the Fed tightens, the market turns over and a
recession ensues, the Fed eases, and the market turns around. This time, we are in
undiscovered territory. Spitznagel believes it would be a good general thesis to
assume they will never tighten enough, but that doesn't mean the market won't roll
over, he noted. Where it's going to get ugly is when the market crashes and the Fed
doesn't have any tools left to stop it, he said.
Furthermore, we are in the midst of the greatest credit bubble in human history and it
hasn't come close to popping because the amount of inflated credit and debt in the
system has barely budged, he said.
“A ridiculous prospect”, yes, that’s exactly right. The whole report is worth your time and makes
a lot of sense and for what it’s worth, fits right into another section edited put of last weekend’s
intro. These two charts first showed up in a John Authers mailer dated July 14th and show how
US inflation is now affecting even “sticky goods”, i.e, those price that need plenty of systemic
change and time before they start moving.
Again, not my work and all you’re getting from me is agreement on opinions from greater
minds. Here’s how Authers put it:
3

Digging into more detail, if we look at the annualized rate over three months, we see
that sticky prices have taken off this spring. Inflation is now running at an annualized
rate of almost 8%, the highest in four decades. It looks as though the impact of the
transitory shock is now finding its way through into more prices in the economy —
which is exactly what the Fed does not want to see.
The Fed has a problem because inflation has moved up the gears. Once Upon a Time 12
months ago it was “transitory”, then it was “persistent” but now, it’s becoming part of the
economic scenery and with The USA now showing all signs of slipping into recession, the world
is beginning to get the point about stagflation.
And that, ladies and gents, has been this publication’s point for some time, that stagflation is
not recession. Copper, gold, silver and all the others
drop in a recession scenario but under stagflation,
they will also see market price support kicking in
much earlier. The Stagflation Scenario would also
see the US Dollar losing its charm as the world’s
safe haven and there are even signs of that. See
the DXY chart above, also consider how gold and
the USD have done their normal dance in June and
most of July; first the tide ran against bullion and
toward the Dollar, but the last few days show a
reversal of the classic pair trade’s comportment. As
this chart (right) shows, the gold stocks may well
provide outsized gains as the market rediscovers
their love for a severely beaten down sector that
starts to see its product rise in price again. There’s still a long way to go and as out GLD
tracking charts demonstrate, the financial markets are still net sellers of bullion but with the
right type of signal from the Fed, the type anticipated by the Mark Spitznagels of this world,
commodities of all types will get their rebound.
GLD gold holdings, 2022 year to date (metric tonnes)
1140
1120
1100
1080
1060
1040
1020
1000
980
960
940
920
All this is, of course, conjecture and the best course of action is to watch and wait for the Fed’s
communiqué on Wednesday, as well as the market reaction. But the last few days have
indicated that there is a possible bottom being put into this bearish metals market and it may
be coming a lot sooner than the generalists realize. Rant over, now let’s get back to the real
reason this publication has taken up the last 688 weekends of my life.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Superior Gold (SGI.v) 2q22 production numbers
On Tuesday July 19th SGI announced its 2q22 production numbers for its Plutonic gold mine in
WA Australia (3) with CEO Chris Jordaan following on Wednesday morning to walk through the
numbers and take questions via a webcast, find that here (4) or here (5). We now take a look
4
12/21/13 22/1/5 22/1/01 22/1/51 22/1/02 22/1/52 22/1/03 22/2/4 22/2/9 22/2/41 22/2/91 22/2/42 22/3/1 22/3/6 22/3/11 22/3/61 22/3/12 22/3/62 22/3/13 22/4/5 22/4/01 22/4/51 22/4/02 22/4/52 22/4/03 22/5/5 22/5/01 22/5/51 22/5/02 22/5/52 22/5/03 22/6/4 22/6/9 22/6/41 22/6/91 22/6/42 22/6/92 22/7/4 22/7/9 22/7/41 22/7/91
mt GLD: Inventory/Price Ratio, 2022 year to date
6.40
6.30
6.20
6.10
6.00
5.90
5.80
5.70
5.60
source: SPDR GLD data 5.50
13/21/1202 5/1/2202 01/1/2202 51/1/2202 02/1/2202 52/1/2202 03/1/2202 4/2/2202 9/2/2202 41/2/2202 91/2/2202 42/2/2202 1/3/2202 6/3/2202 11/3/2202 61/3/2202 12/3/2202 62/3/2202 13/3/2202 5/4/2202 01/4/2202 51/4/2202 02/4/2202 52/4/2202 03/4/2202 5/5/2202 01/5/2202 51/5/2202 02/5/2202 52/5/2202 03/5/2202 4/6/2202 9/6/2202 41/6/2202 91/6/2202 42/6/2202 92/6/2202 4/7/2202 9/7/2202 41/7/2202 91/7/2202
Source: SPDR data, IKN calcs

at the good, bad and ugly of the 2q22 production numbers and what to expect from SGI when
it files its quarter “In August 2022” (no date provided yet, but to hack the sentiment here are a
couple of near-term SGI price charts:
To the left, a ten-day comparative price chart with GDXJ and to the right, just SGFI over the
last five days and in both cases, the morning of Tuesday is clearly marked. With around 400k
shares traded at the bell and another flurry later in the afternoon, Monday’s close of 71c traded
as low as 60c on the day and while moderate trading the rest of the week dragged the stock
back up to 66c by Friday’s close the charts tell the simple story, SGI missed and here’s why:
SGI gold production and sales
5
15361 05861 77151 63551 99651 29451 83851 55851 30671 83571 65391 99091 97391 28291
38902 34112
74761 32851 61951 62761
25000
22500
20000
17500
15000
12500
10000
7500
5000
2500
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2
Oz Au
Au prod
Au sold
source: SGI data
The incremental production quarters SGI enjoyed in 2021 have seen a sudden reversal, with
two sequential quarters that have clearly underperformed even as SGI has always guided for
better numbers in the second half of 2022.
 Gold production came in at 15,916oz, even lower than the interrupted 1q22 and a long
way short of our internal estimates.
 Gold sales benefited from the slight lag out of 1q22 at 16,726oz, also short of
expectations.
We were expecting a total of at least 19,000oz from this quarter and guided at 20k oz Au, so
this was a large miss. SGI gave us two reasons for the disruption
 High rainfall: Unusually for the period of the year, SGI’s Plutonic mine “…received 143
millimetres of rain for the month compared to a long-term average of 15 millimetres
and an annual rainfall target of 264 millimetres.” This resulted in flooding, affecting
airport access and Main Pit development. On this we cannot lay too much blame
against the company and as its production data shows (below), it managed to run a
reasonable contingency plan.
 Covid-19: The continued outbreak in Western Australia caused “…a surge in COVID-
related absenteeism and disruption with realized COVID-19 rates running on average
between 3-5% with spikes as high as 13% in May.” On this the company can be
blamed for having fudged the reality of its situation in previous declarations, as back in
both April and May they gave the impression that the worst of the Covid-19 problem

had been left in Q1. However, the reality of Covid-19 in WA isn’t confined to SGI at
Plutonic, with many other remote mines reporting significant staff shortages for the
same reasons. It is what it is, I suppose.
So the combo of low staff numbers and high rainfall took between 3k oz and 5k oz off the
potential production totals for the quarter, now for some details on what happened and we can
at least say that the mill remained operational:
SGI: Total material milled
6
000513
315883 760734 885054 088414 540334 801514 000814 000663 000493 000083 000663 000653 000953 000504 000983 278953 595604
500000
450000
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2
tonnes
source: company filings
SGI ran 406,595mt through the mill, the highest total since 2019 and with the company guiding
that “…the plant is now running closer to its nameplate capacity of 5,000 TPD” as per last
week’s NR, that should parlay into new higher totals for the current 3q22. The issue wasn’t
tonnage through the mill but the source, as seen here:
SGI: Stope material mined
The higher grade stope material (above left) totalled 165,511mt (at an average grade of 2.50
g/t Au for 2q22), a disappointing production
number when projections had SGI beating
recent quarters, not merely matching them.
With staffing levels now returning to normal, we
should expect this to improve in the next two
quarters. Above right we see the total tonnages
mined and as you can appreciate, the company
relied on the lower grade “surface material” (freshly mined open pit and low grade stockpile)
which averaged 0.72 g/t gold for the quarter.
Therefore, the higher tonnage put through the
mill wasn’t enough to compensate for the lower
than average mill head grade for the quarter, of
1.38 g/t (right). The final piece of the mix was a
slightly lower average recovery of 85%, again a likely
result of using less of the higher grading stope material
in the average head grade mix (bottom right).
To sum up production we return to the data seen in the
000731 000651 000571 000181 045581 115561
220000
200000
180000
160000
140000
120000 100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2
tonnes mt SGI: Tonnages mined surface material
550000 devel. material
stope material
500000
450000
400000
350000
300000 250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
2q21 3q21 4q21 1q22 2q22
source: company filings source: SGI filings
SGI: Milled gold average grade, per qtr
4.2
4
3.8
3.6
3.4
3.2
3
2.8
2.6 2.6 2.5
2.4 2.4
2.2 2.3 2.27 2 2.1 2 2.02 1.921.96 1.9 1.9 1 1 . . 6 8 1.63 1.81.7 1.61.6 1.8 1.7 1.71
1.4 1.46 1.4 1.38
1.2
1
61q4 71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2
g/t Au
stope grade mined
grade milled
source: company filings
SGI: Gold recovery grades
%68
%09
%78 %78 %88 %78 %58 %48 %28 %48 %28 %48 %68 %88 %68 %78 %58
100%
95%
90%
85%
80%
75%
70%
81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1
source: SGI data

first chart, but add previous years and also our revised guidance for 3q22 and 4q22:
SGI gold production and sales
7
40522 73932 00971 99881 05861 63551 29451 55851 83571 99091 28291 34112 32851 62761 00002 00042
25000
22500
20000
17500
15000
12500 10000
7500
5000
2500
0
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
Oz Au Au prod
Au sold
source: SGI data
In its literature and on the webcast, SGI made it clear things are improving at Plutonic, the
adverse effects of the heavy rainfall have now (pardon the pun) washed through and it’s now
compensating for Covid-19 staffing issues. We can expect improved numbers in Q3 but as the
company didn’t enter the current quarter at full tilt, it’s prudent to shave a little off our previous
expectations. Therefore and to err firmly on the side of caution (in a year that’s disappointed to
date), we now expect 20k oz Au from the company in Q3. As for Q4, SGI is maintaining its
guidance “to exit 2022 at a 100k oz/annum run rate”, which leads us to drop guidance from 25k
oz to 24k oz in 4q22, as above. Be clear, that wouldn’t be a bad result for the second half but
overall, there’s a clear feeling of a “lost half year” at SGI now. The above house estimates also
fit as well as possible into the way CEO Jordaan answered your author’s questions on 2022
guidance. As at May 24th and the publication of the 1q22 MD&A it maintained 2022 guidance at
80,000 oz to 90,000 oz gold, but after two attempts to get CEO Jordaan to confirm those
numbers in which he deferred or avoided a straight answer, it’s not a difficult read to aim a little
lower. We therefore expect SGI to lower annual guidance to between 75koz and 80koz for the
year, due to the issues it hit in the first half (with our estimate now pitching 2022 annual
production at 76,660oz).
Here’s how that translates into revenues, with a costs estimate added. We expect 2q22
revenues at U$30.9m and then for the second half of the year, the job is to aim conservatively
so we use a flat U$1,700/oz gold price until December 31st (which hopefully makes all errors
into good news)
SGI: Revenues vs Costs
4.92 5.13 6.13 3.33 6.62 8.92 0.82 0.82 5.62 7.32 0.52 2.42 2.72 6.52 4.72 1.72 2.13 9.62 4.43 5.92 2.43 3.82 8.73 4.92
2.03
7.62
9.03
5.82
0.43
0.03
8.04
0.13
45
40
35
30
25
20 15
10
5
0
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 tse22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
U$m
Revenues COGS
source: company filings
As for costs, here’s the breakdown chart plus
the assumptions to arrive at U$28.5m for SGI: Op Costs Breakdown 40
2q22, we’ll find out in August how close this
35
is:
30
25
We’ve all heard about the blast of cost
20
inflation that’s run through the industry but in
the case of SGI, there’s reason to expect costs 15
10
5
0
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 tse22q2
$m other Depr & Amort
processing
mining
source: SGI filings

to remain under control. The reliance on stockpile material during the quarter means less direct
mining cost and one questioning CEO Jordaan, the company is beginning to see savings in USD
thanks to the improvement in forex with the Australian Dollar
However, it also means somewhat thin pickings when it comes to operational profits this
quarter and if gold remains at U$1,700/oz, that will be true for 3q22 as well.
SGI: Revenues and operating earnings, per qtr
8
870.3- 92.2- 803.4- 619.3-
411.1 324.0- 793.0-
548.1-
412.2 927.2 826.3
489.5
144.1
2.0 5.1
3.7
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 tse22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
U$m
Revenues Op income
source: company filings
The investment thesis for SGI has always been to improve production at what is ultimately, a
largely fixed costs FIFO mine. With the uptick in production ounces now set back until Q4 ijn
our model, that’s the point at which SGI should become a truly profitable entity and again, the
feeling is of “a couple of lost quarters” due to the glitches and problems it has faced in 2022 to
date. However, a good Q4 would set the company up well for a better 2023.
Which brings us to the last potential issue, that of cash and liquidty. SGI reported a cash
position of U$18.2m as at end 2q22 in last week’s NR, which is almost $5m lower than the
original house model. That got me concerned about a possible lack of operational liquidity for
the company over the next couple of months (a mine such as this, with suppliers to pay and
sometimes irregular timing on revenues, needs a pool of cash from which to draw), so I got a
question in with CEO Jordaan in the webcast and the answer was reassuring, as SGI doesn’t
expect to need any new or extra sources of financing to get through 2022.
30 SGI: Cash treasury per qtr
27.5
25
22.5
20
17.5
15
12.5
10
7.5
5
2.5
0
The model (cash above left, working capital above right) both reflect this and while SGI isn’t
going to leave the year with the cash pile previously estimated, it has enough and as long as it
doesn’t hit any further execution issues, will be in good shape. Finally and less importantly (as
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 tse22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
source: company filings/IKN ests
srallod
fo
snoillim
15 SGI: Working Capital per qtr
12.5
10
7.5
5
2.5
0
-2.5
-5
-7.5
-10
-12.5
-15
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 tse22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
source company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim

cash flow and operating income matters more) here’s the tracking chart for quarterly per share
earnings plus bets guesses for the three quarters left to report:
SGI: operating income and net income per share
0.10
0.09
0.08
0.07
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
0.00
-0.01
-0.02
-0.03
-0.04
-0.05
9
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 tse22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
U$
Op Inc/share
net EPS
source: SGI filings, IKN ests
Again we see the dip caused by the low 2q22 production, our forecast gives basically breakeven
for operating earnings and then a small net loss. Once again, we look to Q4 for better things.
The bottom line to the SGI numbers from last week is that they sucked, but it’0s not the end of
the world and as the company is now on a stable financial footing, there’s no need to abandon
ship due to this soft quarter. It’s also true that the company has been unlucky in the last
quarter or two, but that’s also part of the risk one takes when buying into small gold mining
stocks with just one operating asset. Those
risks are not going away and it’s why small
miners cannot demand the multiples to
earnings that a large miner can, but in this case
there’s good reason to stick out this troubled
period because even a 4c quarterly EPS for
4q22 means SFGI would be less than 4X annual
earnings going into 2023.
I’d be more concerned if the company’s balance
sheet weren’t as solid, more concerned if SGI
hadn’t had the operational flexibility to get
round a difficult quarter of production, more
concerned if it didn’t have a robust plan for
growth. That means I’m less concerned about
this trade, even as the stock price has sunk from my 95c cost average (which I considered a
great bargain at the time, ho hum) because it has the financial chops to ride out these two soft
production quarters just gone. Its growth plans have been delayed a quarter (or two) and
haven’t disappeared and ultimately, this is the same management team that came in, took a
poorly understood deposit by the scruff of the neck and invested in data collection in order to
understand it better and make operations more efficient. That brains trust has got SFGI through
a soft period that would have sunk the previous people in charge, the difference today is that
the share price is on sale.
Is this a buy at today’s prices? Yes it is if you 1) have the risk tolerance for this type of small
gold miner and 2) are happy to buy these discounted prices and wait a few months for the
company to start fully delivering on its plans. As for me, my grim determination not to buy
anything at the moment and keep the cash treasury intact means I’m not adding, but I am a
strong and confident holder of the shares already bought. A mediocre quarter from SGI, but the
company is largely blameless and has basically been unlucky in 2022 to date so, with the plan
having always been to see better production in the back end of 2022, now is when it can
deliver. Happy holder.

Stocks to Follow
What might be a bottom in metals saw and overall rebound in the junior sector, which was
reflected in our list of Stocks to Follow. But it was still a mixed bag with seven of the 14 open
positions from this time last weekend down (SGI.v, QCCU.v, CKG.v, PA.v, MIRL.cse, WRN.to,
MENE.v) and the other seven ending as winners (MAI.v, ARG.to, RIO.v, ALDE.v, APN.v, NCAU.v,
ELBM.v). However, all the big moves were to the upside, with the rebounds in Aldebaran
(AÑLDE.v up 27.0%), Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v up 16.7%) and Electra Battery (ELBM.v up 14.9%)
leading the field.
Just two of our 11 open positions are in the green, then the two stocks added to the watchlist
are unchanged. That makes 12 red lines in all.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.50 138.1% $1.14 tgt, #1 idea on FY22 dev
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Amerigo Res ARG.to STR BUY C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.14 -16.2% $2.40 tgt on FY22 guidance
Superior Gold SGI.v STR BUY C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.66 -30.5% Au prod jr, right place/time
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v BUY C$0.275 25-Apr-21 C$0.14 -49.1% Now drilling. Easy hold
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v HOLD C$0.83 22-Apr-18 C$0.175 -78.9% Downgrade on permit denial
SPECULATIVE TRADES
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v SPEC BUY C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$1.95 -36.5% Au leverage, small trade so far
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v BUY C$0.72 16-May-21 C$0.80 11.1% hole 221 may give boost
Palamina Corp PA.v SPEC BUY C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.11 -62.7% Au expl in S.Peru
Altiplano Metals APN.v HOLD C$0.31 17-Sep-21 C$0.18 -41.9% Cheap entry, plan on track.
Minera IRL MIRL.cse hold C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.085 -56.4% CEO change will move stock
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
Newcore Gold NCAU.v WATCH C$0.51 20-Mar-22 C$0.285 -44.1% potential gold exploreco trade
Electra Battery ELBM.v WATCH C$5.31 20-Mar-22 C$3.85 -27.5% potential battery metals play
Anacortes Mining XYZ.v WATCH C$0.49 24-Jul-22 C$0.49 0.0% potential gold exploreco trade
Goldshore Res GSHR.v WATCH C$0.33 24-Jul-22 C$0.33 0.0% potential gold exploreco trade
Western Copper WRN.to SPEC BUY C$2.41 20-Mar-22 C$1.65 -31.5% potential copper trade
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.66 6-Dec-20 C$0.57 -13.6% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
2015 to 2021 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for a few notes just one or two of the covered companies:
Aldebaran Resources (ALDE.v): Wednesday 20th saw ALDE biting the financing bullet, but
the news was good, the market found it palatable and as a result, the share price rebounded
sharply from its recent low-volume lows. Along with a webinar the next day in which CEO John
10

Black went into some of the details about the deal check it out here (6), the company
announced (7) $10.3m strategic investment from Australia’s South32 and to make it quick, here
are the NR bullets:
 South32 will invest C$10.3 million by way of a non-brokered private placement in the
Company
 The Company will issue an aggregate 13,200,000 common shares (the “Common
Shares”) pursuant to the Private Placement at a price of $0.78 per Common Share
 Upon closing of the Private Placement, South32 will own approximately 9.9% of
Aldebaran’s issued and outstanding common shares on a non-diluted basis
 The Company will use the proceeds of the strategic investment to fund exploration
activities at Altar.
This means ALDE now has three strategic investors on board and between them, they take up
around 80% of the float which means that ALDE’s thin trading tradition isn’t likely to change in
the immediate future. However, there is a potential upside to the S32 incursion and you can
take that literally, as both Route One and Sibanye have top-up rights in their strategic
investment deals so before this placement closes, we may see a little extra cash come in from
the other two large backers in order that they keep their percentage positions.
We’ll see on that and I’ll wait until the closure before adjusting shares out and treasury position
on the model, During the webcast, CEO Black mentioned that there wouldn’t be any drill results
until the S32 placement had closed so we’ll have to wait until then for the results of the
intriguing Hole 221 assay result. From them and when the drill program re-starts after the
Andean winter break, the company expects to have at least four rigs turning and would like to
have six. With treasury filled, it’s about time they hit the accelerator pedal on exploration.
Holding.
Anacortes Mining (XYZ.v) and Goldshore Resources (GSHR.v): Added to the new
Watchlist section: This is a brief heads-up (and no more than that) to note that as from this
weekend, I’m adding the two stocks mentioned in last weekend’s IKN687 to the new “watchlist”
section. The watchlist has morphed from the list of five stocks first identified as potential trades
back in IKN670 and above all, readers are advised that I do not own any shares in any of the
companies in this list. Consider them a potential shopping list, or short-list of stocks which are
interesting enough to follow closely but on which I haven’t pulled the trigger. Not yet, anyway.
 Out of interest, please note that at the time of last weekend’s note “Goldshore Resources
(GSHR.v): Marking a potential future trade”, GSHR was a 26.5c stock and this weekend it
begins its stay on the watchlist at a listed price of 33c. In other words, it had a good week.
 Out of interest, please also note that last weekend while writing up “Anacortes Mining Corp
(XYZ.v) update”, XYZ was a 93c stock and this weekend it starts its life on the list at 49c. In
other words, it had a bad week. There’s a little more on XYZ in ‘Market Watching’, below.
Minera Alamos (MAI.v): We gave notice last weekend
in IKN687, the official NR came out Monday and sure
enough the recent placement was fully closed at 55c.
That represented a 9c premium to last Friday. As this
chart shows, MAI trended up on the week and beat the
GDXJ, but the max price of 53c and Friday at 50c means
there’s still slack to take up on the open market against
the placement price.
Chesapeake Gold (CKG.v): Still no news from CKG, in
fact it’s been nearly two months without a NR from the company. To be fair, they have been
clear about their plan to wait until there’s met results worth announcing before making any
noise and we are probably close to that happening, but for the time being the share price
continued to be buffeted up and down on gossamer thin trading.
11

Altiplano Metals (APN.v): An example of the weirdness that happens in the TSXV at times,
Friday saw APN trade up nearly 50% at 31c before being sold back down to close just half a
cent up on the week, at 18c.
Exactly why that happened, no idea. But it has all the hallmarks of a fat finger trade, or perhaps
a broker who took their client literally when they said “just accept the ask”, without knowing
what a 150k order can do to a thinly-traded exploreco.
QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v): If copper
continues to finder buyers and show signs of price
recovery, QCCU is bound to move back up from
this stupidly low price level. If you have the
necessary risk tolerance, here’s a place where as
little as 5% added to the price of copper could
spring QCCU 50% from this weekend’s price.
It’s as fundamentally sound a company as it has
been all year, the changes are the price of copper
and the price of QCCU stock. A true bargain entry
point and one that could provide a quick flip win if
spot copper continues to climb back.
And Finally: Those who fight and run away, live to fight another day. It’s been a rotten three
or four months at market and to prove it, here are the last six trades we have closed out. They
were all losers but for the personal loss percent please look above; not below. That’s because
company ticker date closed price closed price now change
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.04 U$0.64 -38.5%
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.82 U$0.33 -59.8%
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.33 C$0.25 -24.2%
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.30 C$0.23 -23.3%
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.39 C$1.03 -25.9%
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.30 C$0.295 -1.7%
…the final column in this table shows the percentage price change since I sold my position.
That means by cutting and running when I did, bar the most recent sale of Element 29 (ECU.v)
I’ve managed to miss extra losses of at least 23% and in the case of McEwen Mining (MUX) I
got out of the way just in time. It’s no fun selling losers but as this little list shows, it’s a
necessary part of this game. My only regret is not culling the open list more heavily at the same
time but as noted in a couple of recent editions, it’s “Which wrong decision shall I make next?”
12

The Copper Basket
After twenty-nine weeks of 2022, The Copper Basket shows a loss of 47.30% level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/22 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Copper Mtn CMMC.to 3.42 210.166 296.33 1.41 -58.8%
2 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.77 88.118 280.22 3.18 -15.6%
3 Western Copper WRN.to 2.00 151.451 249.89 1.65 -17.5%
4 Oroco Res OCO.v 2.04 203.4 134.24 0.66 -67.6%
5 Nevada Copper NCU.to 0.71 448.437 107.62 0.24 -66.2%
6 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.84 114.495 91.60 0.80 -4.8%
7 Regulus Res. REG.v 1.06 101.845 82.49 0.81 -23.6%
8 Meridian Min MNO.to 1.18 153.735 73.02 0.475 -59.7%
9 Hot Chili HCH.v 1.53 109.223 62.26 0.57 -62.7%
10 Kutcho Copper KC.v 0.88 103.94 39.50 0.38 -56.8%
11 C3 Metals CCCM.v 0.16 645.379 35.50 0.055 -65.6%
12 Doré Copper DCMC.v 0.79 66.123 24.80 0.375 -52.5%
13 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.58 79.24 23.38 0.295 -49.1%
14 QC Copper QCCU.v 0.34 129.06 18.07 0.14 -58.8%
15 Coast Copper COCO.v 0.13 41.335 2.69 0.065 -50.0%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg -47.30%
Six weekly winners (MARI.to, NCU.to, HCH.v,
The Copper Basket 2022, weekly evolution
REG.v, ALDE.v, KC.v), three unchanged stocks 10%
(CCCM.v, DCMC.v, COCO.v) and six losers 0%
(CMMC.to, OCO.v, WRN.to, MNO.to, ECU.v, -10%
QCCU.v) makes the basic headcount a balance, -20%
but the big percentage winners among the list -30%
tipped us to the positive and in all, The Copper -40%
Basket average managed to gain 3.27%. Those
-50%
big percentage winners were Kutcho Copper
-60%
(KC.v up 49.0%), Aldebaran (ALDE.v up 27.0%),
Marimaca (MARI.to up 17.3%) and Nevada
(NCU.to up 14.3%). Aside from Marimaca, which
has seen some near-term weakness, the big winners have been some of the most beaten up
during the downturn and at some point, seller exhaustion turns into a sharp rebound.
The reason for the rebound is here, as copper bounced off a low price of U$3.15/lb (HGU
September futures contract) and traded the week at a U$3.25/lb to U$3.30/lb base.
In fact that near-term chart above isn’t exactly the sharpest or most aggressive price rebound
imaginable, but when we zoom out slightly and take in the three month chart…
13
ts1naJ ht9naJ ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6bef ht31 ht02 ht72 t6raM ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3rpA ht01 ht71 ht42 1yam ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5nuj ht21 ht91 ht62 dr3yluj ht01 ht71 ht42
source: IKN calcs

…the context shows the reason for the common sigh of relief around the market. It’s less about
copper re-gaining U$3.80/lb or U$4.00+ in a single bound, more about a week of steady
trading that breaks a constant short trade and made the world think twice about Dr. Copper.
The rebound last week also begs the question, has Goldman Sachs bottom-ticked the market?
They were first and loudest about the “copper is the new oil” message on the way up and as
stubborn as your author about the bullish fundamentals for copper as its price dropped through
U$4.00/lb and then U$3.50/lb (I plead guilty too, fundies are fundies). However, last week’s
double drop in price targets with the three month target set at U$6,700/mt (U$3.04/lb) was the
same week copper finally found a bottom and broke out of that nasty bearish trading range,
here’s Reuters with more (8):
Industrial metals and global equities tumbled in recent months as inflation surged and
central banks began rapid interest rate rises that could tip the world into recession.
But investors this week dialled back expectations for U.S. rate rises. Global stocks are
up for a sixth day and the dollar weakened from 20-year highs, helping dollar-priced
metals by making them cheaper for buyers with other currencies.
"Markets are on edge with central banks so hawkish ... but pressure from rising rates
should ease at some point," said WisdomTree analyst Nitesh Shah.
Chinese metals demand, low in recent months due to COVID-19 lockdowns, should
also improve, he said, predicting price volatility.
"We need to break (above) $7,500 to get bullish," said a trader in London.
For context, this weekend’s U$3.32/lb close works out at U$7,320/mt, a full U$600/mt
above the Vampire Squid downside target and U$180/mt away from “getting bullish”,
according to our anonymous trader person quoted by Reuters.
Now we move to the regular weekly look at world copper inventories data and more evidence
that a bottom in copper may be in. Fundies matter.
 The aggregate of the three world copper systems dropped for the second time in as
many weeks after its recent modest re-stock, but this time we saw a sharp decrease of
19.940mt as Chinese buyers showed up for the normal cyclical buying sequence. This
weekend sees the total at 241,755mt and if you haven’t been reading this section
recently, that means last weekend’s tight is this weekend’s even tighter.
 The action was centred around the SHFE, where stocks jagged down a big 20,982mt or
almost 30% of stock as of last weekend to close Friday at 50,350mt.
 Even though the headline number at the LME rose by 3,500mt to close the weekend at
133,925mt, there are two data points that
LME: Cu tonnage under cancelled warrant
indicate supply is tight from this system,
too. To begin, 6,500mt landed at LME’s
New Orleans warehouses and that’s the
wrong side of the world for the real end
users. For another, the cancelled warrants 14 00142 52074 57334 00714 52045 05205 52027 52418 52926 05694 57332 52271 05761 52511 57471 52581 52862
100000
90000
80000
70000
60000
50000 40000 30000
20000
10000
0
dr3rpa ht01 ht71 ht42 1.yam ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5nuj ht21 ht91 ht62 dr3yluj ht01 ht71 ht42
mt Cu
source: Cochilco

total confirmed its new uptick with 8,300mt added to its total, this weekend with
26,825mt under orders for buyers.
 The Comex continued its new trend of drawing down stocks, with 2,458mt of copper
leaving its stores and a weekend carry of 57,480mt.
Here are the dedicated SHFE charts and we’ve been expecting a drawdown to start around
now, but there was no guarantee of its happening until it did:
Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2014 to date
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
15
31'13ceD dr32 ht02 ht51 ht01 ht5tco ht03 ht52 dn22 ht71 ht21 ht6pes ts1von 5102ht72ced ts12 ht71 ht21 ht7guA dn2tcO ht4ceD ht92 ht62 ts12 ht61 ht01 7102
ht5von
ts13 ht52 dn22 ht42 ht91 ht41 ht9 9102
dr3bef
ts13 ht62 ts12 ht51 ht01 0202ht5naj 0202ts1ram ht62 ts12 ht61 ht11 0202ht6ced ts13 ht82 dr32 ht81 ht21 ht7 2202dn2naj ht72 ht42 ht91
Mt Cu
|
source: Cochilco
But sure enough and right on the time we normally see buyers to draw down on SHFE stocks,
its warehouses lost over 20kmt in just one week. At some point it will occur to the world that it
can charge more for its copper than U$3.30/lb if end users are falling over themselves to secure
physical supply.
SHFE copper inventory levels, 2018 to 2022
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
MT Cu 2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
source: Cochilco data
Now for some notes on a couple of our basket stocks:
Kutcho Copper (KC.v): The ten-day chart (right) shows there was some volume uptick to go
with last week’s very sharp upturn, but it wasn’t that
much with 86k traded and 41k on the big upmove
day, Friday.
At some point, even the most unpopular and beaten
up of stocks run out of sellers and when they do, it
doesn’t take much to spring them higher. Admittedly
a 49% move in one week is atypical, so let’s wait
until a little more volume washes through KC before
making judgment. If WPOM starts selling again, this
pop will be short-lived.

Oroco Resources (OCO.v): On the other side of the coin OCO still cannot catch a bid in 2022
and while it only lost a penny last week, it’s still down around 70% YTD. In mailbag, reader “W”
tells this desk that the main promoter behind OCO,
Mariusz Skonieczny (I checked YouTube for spelling) has been bad-mouthing the very people
he got into the stock, calling them names and berating them for the continued selling. I saw the
video links but didn’t click through and watch (better things to do) but assuming accuracy on
that intel, it’s a tell on the sentiment behind the stock. At some point OCO will bounce
Copper Mountain (CMMC.to): CMMC is due to report its 2q22 tomorrow Monday morning
pre-bell (9), so by the time you reads these
words you may also know the fate of its quarter.
There’s also a Conference Call on this link (10) at
07:30am Pacific Time (that’s 10:30am ET or
09:30am Lima Peru, I’ll be on it). As for what to
expect, by the way CMMC traded last week…
…the market is not expecting good news. The
way CMMC bounced with the copper sector on
Monday, only to hit immediate sellers that
pushed the stock to a 2.8% loss on the week.
The Producer Basket
After twenty-nine weeks of 2022, the Producer Basket shows a loss of 19.27% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/22 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 62.02 797.44 40.98 51.39 -17.1%
2 Barrick GOLD 19.00 1779 27.27 15.33 -19.3%
3 Franco-Nevada FNV 138.29 191.192 23.84 124.71 -9.8%
4 Agnico Eagle AEM 53.14 454.904 18.32 40.28 -24.2%
5 Wheaton PM WPM 42.93 450.3 14.63 32.50 -24.3%
6 Gold Fields GFI 10.99 887.72 7.90 8.90 -19.0%
7 Kinross Gold KGC 5.81 1296.5 4.21 3.25 -44.1%
8 B2Gold BTG 3.93 1055.6 3.43 3.25 -17.3%
9 Alamos Gold AGI 7.69 392.503 2.83 7.21 -6.2%
10 Sandstorm SAND 6.20 191.4 1.05 5.50 -11.3%
All prices and stock quotes in U$ Port. avg -19.27%
A strange week among the PM producer stocks, which also shows up clearly on our list of ten
representative stocks. The benchmark ETFs give us the way forward, as the main GDX lost
16

0.7% on the week while the junior-laden GDXJ managed to improve by 2.5%. That’s an
unusual bifurcation as under normal circumstances, a week in which gold bullion improves by
1% or so (GLD proxy up 1.04%) and its shows in our list in which the top five stocks at the top
of the market cap league table were all losers (NEM, GOLD, FNV, AEM, WPM) and by strange
coincidence the bottom five stocks and smallest market cappers were all winners (GFI, KGC,
BTG, AGI, SAND). Strange but true.
The weakness was centred around three of our biggest components, with Barrick’s (GOLD) pre-
announcement of production of the week before last (see IKN687 last weekend) affecting NEM
and then growing evidence that Australia’s ongoing Covid-19 outbreak has affected mining
operations affecting NEM and AEM. Which means NEM got a double dose of negative and
finished the week down 6.1% and AEM down 5.5%. At the other end of the list, Kinross (KGC
up 5.2%) has been the worst hit stock of the larger player in recent weeks, so it’s not a surprise
to see it rebound the most as gold bottomed and turned.
The 2022 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
35% comparative to GDX control
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%
Newmont (NEM): NEM normally declares its quarterly dividend one or two trading days
before reporting its earnings, so the NR out on Friday announcing the expected 55c payment
was in-line. However, the stock traded badly all week, as the market has already cottoned on
the to correlation between Barrick’s pre-announced production and cost metrics (NEM and
GOLD share Nevada Gold Mines and Pueblo Viejo), and now assumes Boddington will see bad
production numbers from continued exposure to the Covid-19 outbreak in Western Australia. To
save space I’ve added the NEM squiggly line to the AEM comparative chart below (blue line)
and we may have seen too much bad news baked into the NEM share price. If bullion puts in a
rally next week, NEM may be a rebound trade for your trading radar.
Agnico (AEM): The other earnings report to watch for next week is from AEM on Wednesday
27th and if the trading last week is anything to go by…
…the company is either going to miss on ounces or report higher than expected costs. It hasn’t
been quite as bad as NEM, but 10% down over two weeks is double that of the GDX
benchmark and along with the cost hikes being baked into any company with extensive
Canadian operatons, AEM must also get question marks over its Fosterville output for the
17
ts1naJ ht9naJ ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6bef ht31 ht02 ht72 t6ram ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3rpa ht01 ht71 ht42 1yam ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5nuj ht21 ht91 ht62 dr3luj ht01 ht71 ht42
The 2022 Producer Basket: Percentage difference
between GDX benchmark & basket (negative = IKN ahead) 5.0%
4.5%
ikn 4.0%
gdx control 3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
-0.5%
-1.0%
source: NYSE, IKN Calcs
ts1naJ ht9naJ ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6bef ht31 ht02 ht72 t6ram ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3rpa ht01 ht71 ht42 1yam ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5nuj ht21 ht91 ht62 dr3luj ht01 ht71 ht42
source: IKN calcs, NYSE data

quarter (Covid and all that). In the current bearish atmosphere for miners, any perceived
weakness gets punished and that’s what we’ve seen.
Therefore the same theoretical rebound trade could happen here as in NEM: Sentiment has
baked plenty of bad news into stock prices and if gold can show that it put a bottom in at
U$1,700/oz (The FOMC result comes the same day as AEM’s Q2), those who trade these stocks
could get a long trade out of AEM next week.
The TinyCaps List
After twenty-nine weeks of 2022, the TinyCaps show a loss of 27.55% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/22 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Aurelius Min AUL.v 0.24 45.836 4.35 0.095 -60.4%
Golden Pursuit GDP.v 0.13 34.638 5.89 0.17 30.8%
Infield Min INFD.v 0.06 48.445 1.94 0.04 -33.3%
Kingfisher Met KFR.v 0.30 103.007 22.66 0.22 -26.7%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.12 57.296 5.16 0.09 -25.0%
Manitou Gold MTU.v 0.06 344.57 10.34 0.03 -50.0%
Melkior Res MKR.v 0.295 24.011 6.00 0.25 -15.3%
Precipitate Gold PRG.v 0.105 129.322 10.35 0.08 -23.8%
Signature Res SGU.v 0.07 238.4 8.34 0.035 -50.0%
Winshear Gold WINS.v 0.08 61.585 4.00 0.065 -18.8%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg -27.55%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $20m. They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a
little and allowed sub-U$20m market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, but it was a particularly depressing exercise to trawl through the whole of the TSXV and find companies
that are small enough, but with life in them. The vast majority of sub-$20m stocks are broken stocks, either
traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2020. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
A mixed bag of a week for the TinyCaps list, with 15% TinyCaps, 2022 weekly tracker
five winners (GDP.v, KFR.v, LMS.v, MKR.v, 10%
5%
PRG.v), three losers (AUL.v, INFD.v, MTU.v) and
0%
two unchanged in price (SGU.v, WINS.v). We got
-5%
minor NRs out of several companies, including -10%
Melkior and Latin Metals that moved their share -15%
prices a lot on very little volume for limited -20%
-25%
periods, but apathy continues to be the
-30%
overriding sentiment for these the tiniest of -35%
stocks. Exceptions are few and far between.
Winshear Gold (WINS.v): This stock last week filed its quarter and showed little cash left in
the treasury box, so it wasn’t a surprise to see it announce a $500,000 placement on thee back
of the numbers (11). They plan to sell 8.33m units at 6c a shot (unit = share + ½ warrant with
a 10c strike). WINS is sister company to Palamina Corp (PA.v), the small exploreco in which I
18
dn2naJ ht9
naJ
ht61naJ dr32 ht03 ht6bef ht31 ht02 ht72 ht6ram ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3rpa ht01 ht71 ht42 ts1yam ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5nuj ht21 ht91 ht62 dr3yluj ht01 ht71 ht42
source: IKN calcs, TSX data

have a small and speculative foothold-type position (see Stocks to Follow) and is working the
same area as Palamina, i.e. the Puno Orogenic belt in South Peru. WINS is arguably the earlier
stage area play and would be a trade to consider if the locality becomes attractive and for that,
we’d want either PA or one of the larger mining companies with concessions there to return an
interesting drill hole (or three). Winshear also has a legacy legal action from its previous
incarnation as Helio and that may return a legal win and compensation at some point in the
undetermined future. This small placement is bound to fill successfully (the team has good
connections and a good reputation) and in another market I’d be more interested in WINS at
this price, but that would also be a market that valued straight land asset trades as worth one’s
time. On that score, if I can’t eke a win out of an easier land asset trade such as Strategic
(SMD.v) and its prime Canadian/North American land package I won’t hold my breath on a Peru
trade…not at the moment, anyway.
However, those of us who’ve been around for more than half a market cycle know that
sentiment can turn on a sixpence and for that, companies such as WINS are good to keep on
the radar. Staying on the sidelines is a cheap game, no matter whether the observed stock
goes up or down over time.
Kingfisher Metals (KFR.v): There continues to be a low level buzz about this stock and KFR
hasn’t been backward about coming forward to
use social media in order to further its cause, so
those who speculate on drill plays have this one
on their sights as we await the first shallow RAB
drill assay results (as described last week).
A look at the 12 month chart shows how KFR has
rattled around its current 20c-or-abouts price for a
while, it also shows what happened in 2021 when
the company returned disappointing first drill
results from Cloud Drifter. They’ve told us (and
Twitter, and YouTube, and etc) they’ve learned
from that exercise and the drill campaign this year
will play to strengths, which is fair enough. They
have me watching, I’ll grant them that.
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future
I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
Chile’s royalty law issue
Last week we noted BHP’s reaction to Chile’s Royalty Law project now making its way through
Congress, here’s how the story has developed. Member of Congress Esteban Velásquez is not a
member of Boric’s party but is part of the political alliance that brought him to power.
Velásquez is also one of the original authors of the Royalty Law project that was first presented
to the lower house of Congress and passed in 2020 (only to be held up by the upper house
Senate and not made law). His reaction to BHP’s comments on the new law proposal we
reported last weekend (repeated from IKN687)…
“…the multinational said that the modifications in the project now going through
Congress will make the South American country run the highest tax burden compared
to other producer nations such as Australia, Canada and Peru. “We have serious
reservations regarding the new version of the royalty (law). If the royalty proposal
became law, we would have to re-evaluate our investment plans for Chile.”
…was the following (12):
“Nobody in their right mind would want to scare away investment, we only demand
19

what is fair with the country they are taking advantage of (the exact verb used directly
translates as “depraving”, or “sucking dry”).”
Clearly on the other side of the argument. He continued:
“The declarations of the BHP mining company and the Mining Chamber of Commerce
seem aggressive and threatening regarding investments due to the Mining Royalty law
project, when we take into account the moderate and reasonable figures that the
government has proposed (as the royalty).”
It will not surprise this audience to learn that the mining industry does not agree with Boric’s
ally. This weekend we got president of Chile’s National Mining Society (Sociedad Nacional de
Minería, or Sonami), Diego Hernández, saying that (13) the tax increases proponed by the
government do not account for a balance between taxes and growth for the mining industry.
However, his position (and therefore that of the sector) was to admit there was room to raise
States burdens “a little” and that the effective total burden for mining companies at the
moment that runs between 40% to 44% could be raised, but no higher than 50%.” He said,
“Neither can we overburden the sector because if not, there will be less production and
investment. This is the balance that the law reform must preserve and maintain, how to
increase taxation without stopping investment activity because we aren’t very competitive from
the point of view of tax burdens.” In other words, repeating BHP’s assertion that big projects
get better deals from other established copper jurisdictions such as Canada, Peru and Australia.
The bottom line: There’s horse trading and lobbying to do, but the mining sector in Chile
understands it will have to give way on State burdens under the new Presidency.
Chile’s permitting issue
We’ve covered this issue closely for the past few weeks, so let’s leave the next chapter to an
English language mining press that’s now paying close attention. Here’s Mining Dot Com (14):
Anglo American (LON: AAL) has suffered a new setback in Chile after the
environmental commission of Valparaiso, Coeva, rejected the company’s $40 million
operational continuity project for its El Soldado copper mine, 125km north of the capital
Santiago.
Despite having the backing of the country’s environmental evaluation authority, which
recommended the project’s approval, the local regulator scratched El Soldado Phase V
project with 10 voting against and only two in favour.
The news, divulged through social media, was confirmed to MINING.COM by the
London-based company’s spokesperson.
The Soldado copper mine owned and run by Anglo American is the latest mining operation in
Chile to be refused its permits to either operate, build or expand on its current operations. As
noted above El Soldado was refused its permit for a U$40m upgrade to its operations, which
according to the Chilean press (15) means it’s now six mining projects that have seen their
permits refused since Boric came to power. Here’s the list in chronological order:
 Minera San Cayetano (U$20.5m)
 Exploraciones Ricardo II (U$1.1m)
 Fenix Gold (U$206m)
 Los Bronces Integrado (U$3Bn)
 Plan de Desarrollo LP Minera Cerro Negro S.A. (U$22m)
 Fase V de El Soldado (U$40m)
However, the latest permit reversal didn’t come totally out of the blue. The Phase Five (Fase V)
project at the mine is part of Soldado’s 2022 to 2027 mine plan and was expected to increase
production at the mine from 33.3m tonnes mineral to 41m tonnes (not including stripped
waste) but was opposed by the local community (16), as the locals accuse Anglo American of
not complying with previous CSR agreements and stopped the permit with accusations of cracks
in its current tailings dam at the mine site, telling the committee that their locality was being
used as a “sacrificial zone” for mining. So despite having given the project green lights, it was
voted down by 10 to 2 and now Anglo has two EIA fails from two in Chile. However, pushback
is beginning and the report we mentioned last weekend in El Mercurio made waves. The La
20

Tercera report linked above also notes that the country’s new Environment Ministry published a
press release last week in response to the rising criticism of “They Are Blocking Everything”, in
which it defended its acts and noted how it had already approved projects up and down Chile
that total U$7.09Bn in investment dollars. However, it glosses over how much of that total is
covered by mining projects, which is the centre of the issue.
Peru: Calm before the storm
First a quick update on the failing negotiation talks between locals and MMG, with the
government supposedly at the table as mediator. We noted two weekends ago that the
community leaders were unhappy with the lack of progress and were intent on going back to
protest action, but eventually the two sides kept talking another ten days. That’s until last
Thursday when the now exasperated locals debated on a second extension of another month
but eventually voted against any further talks (17). Here’s a translation:
““It’s disappointing” said Romualdo Ochoa, president of the Huancuire community, that
opposes the expansion plans of Las Bambas on their territory. “There has been no
advances (of any agreement) with my community.” The indigenous communities say
that Las Bambas has not honoured its commitments with them and also say that the
company has not compensated them financially. The chief executive of Las Bambas,
Ivo Zhao, said during the meeting that the company is willing to continue
conversations. “It’s necessary to keep negotiating”, said Zhao.
With this, we can now expect a new round of protests at the mine. In theory at least, Las
Bambas covers around 2% of world copper production.
As for the political scene, this coming week sees several protocol moments that may well set
the scene for the power struggle over the presidency. These are Peru political inside baseball
matters and not directly related to mining in Peru so I’ll try to be as brief as possible, so first up
on Tuesday we get the election of next head of Congress for the year ahead, a vote that
happens between the 130 members of Congress only and is typified by deep political backroom
maneuvers. As at this weekend there are two likely winners of the vote, namely Lady Camones
(yes, Lady is her first name and Camones is her last name…it’s a long story) and Gladys Echaiz.
Camones backed by Peruvian eminence gris politico Cesar Acuña (who wants her at the head of
Congress to help his ambitions for the presidency), while Echaiz is backed by a mix of right
wing members and recent resigned from Acuña’s own party. Skullduggery will abound in the
next 72 hours and at some point late Tuesday/wee small hours of Wednesday we should find
out who gets to head Congress as from August.
That’s not a small thing, because the political year-end on Peru is marked by July 28th/29th
Independence Day celebrations (followed by a one week public holiday) and the quasi State Of
The Nation speech by President Castillo to Congress on the 28th. So come the first week of
August the gloves will be off and Congress is bound to start pushing on its quest for a new Vote
of Confidence against President Castillo (and at this point is all gets complicated, but the new
moves are trying to get him on a charge that would only need 67 votes to remove him, rather
than other charges that would need 86 votes). A lot of seasoned political commentators are this
week calling “the beginning of the end” of the Castillo presidency on what they see in the
legislative pipeline, so even if he and his government manages to survive another month or two
or three, there’s going to be rough political waters in Peru.
Brazil set for its very own A Grande Mentira
That President Jair Bolsonaro is a fervent supporter of USA ex-President Trump is well-
documented. It’s also been clear for several months that Bolsonaro would like to lay the same
sort of backstory about his opponents preparing to steal his election and last week, he
ratcheted his efforts up a notch (18):
BRASILIA, July 18 (Reuters) - President Jair Bolsonaro invited the diplomatic corps on
Monday to hear his charges that Brazil's election system was open to fraud ahead of
October elections in which he is trailing in a bid for a second term.
"The system is completely vulnerable," he told some 40 diplomats invited to his
residence in an unprecedented briefing three months before a general election.
21

Bolsonaro gave no evidence of fraud, but said a hacker got inside the electronic voting
system during the election he won in 2018, an incident that police concluded had not
compromised the result in any way.
Bolsonaro told the envoys the Brazilian military should be called in to help secure
transparency in the Oct. 2 election. He has pushed electoral authorities to accept a
parallel vote count to be carried out by the armed forces. They have ruled that out.
Diplomats attending included envoys of the United States, the European Union,
France, Spain and Portugal. Neighbor Argentina, whose president is a leftist, was not
invited.
"We knew what he was going to say, that was no surprise. But it is quite unusual to
convene the diplomatic community to talk about a domestic issue," one diplomat who
attended told Reuters.
One thing this Reuters report doesn’t mention is that the 40 invited diplomats were all from
countries considered by Jair Bolsonaro as either from Right Wing governments or governments
friendly to the Brazilian President’s cause. Another thing left unmentioned by the wire reporter
made the national English language website The Brazilian Report (19), "...the meeting only
served to open the eyes of the international press to Mr. Bolsonaro's ruse, with publications
around the world beginning to realize that the president intends to steal the October election."
We remind readers that all polls show his adversary Lula da Silva beating him in the October
election and even if Lula doesn’t manage to reach 50% +1 vote in round one (he seems to be
plateauing at 43% to 45%), he trounces Bolsonaro in the run-off.
Ecuador: The problem with the current agreement with indigenous locals
Fernando Benalcázar was Vice-Minister of Mines in previous administration to that of President
Lasso, serving under President Lenín Moreno. Last week he gave this interview to Ecuador
national daily La Hora (20) and in part of it, gave the following analysis (translated) to the
agreement reached as part of the deal between Lasso and the protesting groups (led by
indigenous umbrella group CONAIE) regarding mining.
Benalcázar gets it right and explains the problem regarding the fall of the so-called Mining Law
(Decree 151), the draft agreement between the government and protesters (Decree 468)
pertaining to the non-development of “Ancestral Territories” and the current 90 day workshop
period going on between interested parties:
Reporter: Why are the plans for mining and oil&gas companies affected?
Fernando Benalcázar: (The deal) has opened the potential for prohibition of the
extractive industries in “Ancestral Territories and Archeological Zones”. Where in the
Constitution or laws of Ecuador is the definition of an “Ancestral Territory”? The answer is
nowhere. It’s amazing to think that in 90 days somebody would be able to resolve this
issue, even if they worked 24/7 with multi-disciplinary teams of sociologists, social
scientists and engineers I cannot see how they can get to define what is an Ancestral
Territory. We have no idea what criteria they will prefer, how they’ll arrive at a definition
or what course they’ll take. It could come from the indigenous groups’ side (and) I’ve
heard declarations made that practically all territories are ancestral in nature. This won’t
be resolved in 90 days, just the implementation could take two years. Another point of
conflict is to promote the idea that as an exception to the rule, extractive activities
(mining/hydrocarbons) could take place if agreements already exist previous to Decree
468 as in those cases, they will respect the decisions of local communities. This is a
Pandora’s Box and would violate the Constitution, in which the right of prior consultancy
is established but even if the majority of the population is against (any given project), the
final decision rests with the government.”
Reporter: Can the situation be solved?
Fernando Benalcázar: There are now two options and Decree 468 makes this clear:
Either everything is suspended until a definition is agreed upon, or we continue and the
dialogue breaks down. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see another protest and strike action a
month after the 90 day period is over.
22

Reporter: What’s happening with (mining and hydrocarbons) investments?
Fernando Benalcázar: They (the government) must be crazy of they think people will
invest without knowing what wil happen in 90 days’ time. I wouldn’t put a single dollar
into Ecuador under the present circumstances.
Market Watching
Anacortes Mining (XYZ.v) gets killed on one bad hole
To recap, these pages put Anacortes Mining (XYZ.v) on the radar a few weeks ago when its
share price sank to sub-Loonie levels all while it executed its maiden drill program at the Tres
Cruces property in La Libertad region, North Peru. And I thought prices of 90c represented
good value, take a look at this:
On receipt of the first two holes from its 2022 drill campaign last week (21), XYZ’s share price
was taken to the woodshed by a market that has zero time for anything less than outstanding
results. In this case, the company’s two holes both returned results that were in-line with
expectations for the upper oxide portion of the project. However, this section shows the
weakness:
Where they had expected decent and long sulpide intersects, they got spotty and “highly
anomalous” (their term) hits from the bottom of the 496m hole. And to be honest this was a
strange and mystifying result, because as seen on the above diagram hole 501 was designed as
a twin to the previous operator’s hole 255, an RC hole that delivered historic assays you can
appreciated on this visual from the latest corporate presentation:
23

To quote XYZ, ATC-501 was “…a twin hole to confirm gold grade, lithology, alteration, and
metallurgical material type reported in reverse circulation drill hole RTC-255”, so it is a bit of a
head-scratcher as to why they didn’t get the same type of rock as the RC of before, but it’s
hardly a result that demands the slicing in half of a company market cap. Certainly, XYZ CEO
Jim Currie didn’t sound too concerned at this first pass result in his CEO comments:
“These first two holes confirm the excellent continuity of near-surface high grade gold
within the oxides while the deeper drilling and associated grades suggest excellent
potential remains at depth within the sulphides. Assays for the next five holes will be
released when they are available in the coming weeks. In the meantime, drilling is on
hiatus until early-August to allow the drill crews to have a rest break and enable our
exploration team to catch up on logging and storage of the core”.
For sure not the best of NRs, but the selling that greeted it has been way overcooked. We are
precisely two holes into a campaign that has five others in the assay labs as at this weekend,
plus a stack of work ready to happen as the program develops. There’s no way any normal
market would discard XYZ on a strange result from only the second hole sunk that should have
twinned sulphide rock but didn’t, however the skittish and bearish backdrop caused selling to
become wild overselling and her ewe are this weekend.
With 42.314m shares out and a share price of C$0.49 this weekend, XYZ now offers
outstanding exploreco drill play value at a market cap of C$20.73m (around U$16.5m), an
equity value that includes an IKN estimated C$8m at bank currently.
Los Andes Copper (LA.v): Local friction
Last week Los Andes Copper (LA.v) announced that a Chilean court had ruled in its favour and
it could go ahead with its drilling program for the Vizcachitas project in Central Peru (22). It had
been halted since an injunction against the project was granted to the local community, centred
on the town of Putaendo (population 15,000) and justified by the disturbance to local fauna,
principally the Andean (Wild)Cat and its main prey, the Vizcacha (small, rabbit-like, long tail).
While the Vizcacha is a common sight in the Andean Cordillera, the Andean Cat is a protected
and endangered species. Here’s part of the LA.v NR:
The Court decision authorized the Company to continue drilling at the Vizcachitas
project, with certain operational conditions, including a restricted drilling plan for the
first 12 months proposed by the Company. This plan will allow the Company to pursue
its original program of illuminating and defining extensions of the mineralized body
which still remains open.
LA.v added that it was still “pursuing the larger goal of completing a Prefeasibility Study in
Q4 2022”.
The company will be able to resume once inclement winter weather abates (there was snow in
the valley last week). The locals were upset that the court had ruled in favour of LA.v’s
alternative plan and as an example, here what the mayor Putaeando, one Mauricio Quiroz, had
to say (23):
24

“The judgment by the Second Environmental Tribunal that agrees partially with the
mining company is incomprehensible. Its argument is that the activities of this company
are compatible with the presence of the Andean wildcat, but there is enou0gh scientific
evidence to show the damage caused by the drilling program. Due to this and along
with our legal team, we are going to use all legal avenues to stop the program from
taking place.”
However, it’s not all green lights for LA.v, either. For one, the company had 350 drill holes
planned for the program phase, of which 99 were planned for the central mineralized zone of
Vizcachitas (presumably the others were a mix of out-step, metallurgical, geological and
condemnation). The new authorization cuts the program down to just 55 holes in the central
zone. Other restrictions include postponing construction of an on-site camp, a program for
monitoring the vizcacha and Andean Cat population that must be approved by the relevant
Chilean authority before drilling starts, a rehabilitation plan is presented and that no dogs are
allowed onto the program site. The company will then be allowed to operate for a maximum of
12 months, at which point its permit is up for further review.
Locals have said they will now monitor the company’s activities closely with a view to reporting
any infraction and getting the program closed down. This, along with the legal recourses
already filed against the Second Environmental Tribunal decision of last week may or may not
prosper, but in the greater scheme what we now have is a clear indication of the significant
local opposition to the Vizcachitas project and in the new backdrop to mining in Chile, that
matters. It’s sobering to consider that the same town of Putaeando, which in its vast majority is
against the project located nearby, is the same town that would have to grant a social licence
to an eventual mine.
To round off with an anecdotal, I’ve fielded two or three inquiries this week on the LA judgment
and whether it signals a better judicial atmosphere in Chile than the one painted by the recent
refusal of the Rio2 (RIO.v) Fenix permit. Sadly it’s quite the contrary, Fenix is in a better
position than Vizcachitas. For one, please consider LA.v had to fight through four months of
courtrooms just to get a previously permitting drill program out of suspension. Secondly, Rio2
at Fenix has consulted with and received agreements and the necessary social licences from not
one but all six communities affected by its project. This is likely connected to the remote
location of Fenix and the lack of people living either nearby the site or next to its access roads.
Vizcachitas does not have that luxury, as not only do the nearby locals want them out, but the
valley itself is lower altitude, picturesque and of historic significance in Chile but it so happens
to be the same valley pass that the hero of the Chilean independence, Bernardo O'Higgins
Riquelme (wealthy landowner of Irish and Basque blood) used to traverse the Andes during the
Chilean War of Independence against Spain.
Belo Sun (BSX.to) and the never-ending story
Last week, the Stan Bharti-backed Belo Sun (BSX.to), owners of the much-troubled Volta
Grande gold project in Xingu, Brazil,
announced (24) “…that the Supreme Court
of Pará State (the “ State Supreme Court ”)
has overturned the suspension order issued
by the Agrarian Court of Altamira (the “
Agrarian Court ”) related to the Construction
License (“ LI ”) and Environmental License (“
LP ”) (see press release dated May 24,
2022).” The May 24th reference is to the NR
that announced the suspension of the project
permitting track and the wording made it
sound as though BSX was now in the clear.
As a result, the market reacted like this
(right), but as is so often the case with this
stock, the impression given by the NR to a believing audience was not the full story. Here’s a
25

little further on in the same NR, your author bold-types and underlines what matters:
The State Supreme Court also ruled that the decision of the Agrarian Court causes
damage to the Company and stated that there should be no obstacles for Belo Sun to
continue with the environmental licensing process while complying with the legal
requirements determined by the applicable environmental and judicial
authorities.
That innocuous-sounding phrase was carefully crafted by the BSX legal team, because its
disclosure is important and relates to the fact that Volta Grande is still suspended from moving
forward until such time as it gets out of all its legal wranglings and runs a full prior consultancy,
not another whitewash affair such as the one it previously tried to pass off as a social licence
meeting. It also needs to get its permits from a different body than before and the permitting
process is now under the auspices of the national IBAMA office, rather than the secretary of the
environment for the State of Pará (which would have been a lot easier and less politically risky
to get through). We agree that BSX got a win out of the courts last week but ultimately, it was
a minor legal victory and they are still far from getting the necessary permits to start
developing the project. With the national government politics about to turn against them
(again), this company remains an easy avoid.
Aris Gold (ARIS.to) is an obvious short, part two
As previously noted, I don’t mind admitting about being puzzled in the way this stock trades
and to wonder who are dumb enough to put
themselves and their money in front of the
upcoming administration of President-Elect
Gustavo Petro, set to be disaster for the mining
industry in general, but particularly for the Soto
Norte project now run by Aris Gold (ARIS.to).
This week provided a clue.
Meb Faber is co-founder and CIO of Cambria
Investment Management, a US fund with AUM
of $785m as at end 1q22, a tidy sum. He’s in
charge of ETF investment strategy (a large part
of the portfolio, as per the latest 13-F (26)).
He’s also a well followed generalist financial
personality on Twitter and YouTube and
podcaster with a following, which is probably why he got Frank Giustra and Ian Telfer on his
show last week in the episode “Frank Giustra & Ian Telfer - The Bull Case for Gold” as published
Wednesday July 20th (27). Here’s the blurb:
Today’s guests today are Frank Giustra and Ian Telfer, two successful mining
executives that built Goldcorp to a $50 billion company.
In today’s episode, we’re talking all about gold with two of the most knowledgeable in
the space. The guys discuss why the set up today mirrors 2001, a time right before
gold when on a big bull run. We also touch on how gold performed during the 1970’s
and why they’re so bullish on gold today that they started another mining company,
Aris.
Fortunately, Mr. Faber provides a transcript of the podcast (28) so there’s no need to listen to
all 39 minutes. The talk was clearly built for a generalist audience with no particular depth of
knowledge about the mining space and mostly went over the case for gold (all the usual talking
points) and then the opportunity that Aris Gold (ARIS.to) offered the prospective investor.
However, what struck your author hard was the amount of time they spent on the details of
ARIS and its jurisdictions of operation. Feel free to check out the episode yourself but I’m not
joking when saying that this…
Meb: Where have you guys started finding properties already? Are these in Canada,
U.S., Africa, Latin America? Where are you guys finding opportunity?
Ian: Well, so far it’s been Latin America, and it’s been Columbia. So we’ve got two
operations…one operation down there, and another mega project to be constructed
over the next three years, but we’re looking at opportunities in other countries as well.
26

…was all that was mentioned about the political and social risk of an investment in ARIS today.
And yes, the transcript even spells Colombia that way. It’s not as if Meb Faber were ignorant
about the rising political risk of the country either, as ICOL (the Colombia stock market index
tracking ETF) was the #9 holding in the Cambria investment portfolio as at March 31st 2022
(and since then is down over 30%). In other circumstances it would be an odd way of
marketing ARIS with Frank Giustra involved,
doing a show to promote a Colombian gold
mining company and making sure nothing was
mentioned about Colombia isn’t going to be a
coincidence or just down to financially savvy host
who tracks the fate of shares exposed to
Colombia forgetting to ask the right questions.
There was a notable uptick in volume in both
TSX and US OTC trading the next day Thursday,
too.
With the advent of the Gustavo Petro presidency
now just two weeks away and a company
currently filling its balance sheet with financial
liabilities (as seen last week in IKN687), add in
the new and naïve audience being targeted by the Giustra/Telfer show and ARIS is set up as
one of the most obvious short trades on the TSX big board.
Conclusion
IKN688 is done, we end with some bullet points:
 The mining world will have its eyes on the Newmont (NEM) numbers tomorrow
morning, I’ll have mine on Copper Mountain (CMMC.to) as its new low price looks
particularly attractive if, repeat IF, the metal can rally and the company can point to
better things in the second half of the year.
 Superior Gold (SGI.v) had a rough Q2 but largely out of its own control. Signs are good
that it has costs under control and it wouldn’t take much to see this well run company
rally, as long as gold bullion plays ball.
 Meanwhile, South America’s political backdrop for mining remains in a bad state, as bad
as I can remember in fact. Chile is getting the bad news headlines at the moment and
Peru’s mess could blow up at any point but of them all, be clear that the worst place for
exposure going into August is Colombia. Petro will be pure poison to the mining
industry and you either take that fact on board now, or learn it later.
 So far at least I’ve managed to keep my hands off the sidelined cash, even though
there are a stack of dirt cheap equities on the radar now. The general idea remains the
same; idea is to miss the bottom, grab hold of a few stocks once the rebound is
confirmed and not try to be cute or smart by fishing for the bottom. But that’s easier
said than done and to quote Oscar Wilde, I can resist anything except temptation.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stock is Minera Alamos (MAI.v). Flash
updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best wishes, Mark
27

Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://www.lemonde.fr/en/economy/article/2022/07/21/ecb-surprises-markets-with-half-point-rate-
hike_5990912_19.html
(2) https://www.businessinsider.com/mark-spitznagel-inflation-federal-reserve-interest-rates-risk-mitigation-2022-7
(3) https://superior-gold.com/news/superior-gold-announces-q2-2022-production-results-122645/
(4) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gcmfyCfxtBs
(5) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AfBvJIDBdzA
(6) https://aldebaranresources.com/news-releases/2022/aldebaran-announces-c-10.3-million-strategic-investment-by-
south32/
(7) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9czVwObzVnk
(8) https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/metals-copper-set-for-first-weekly-gain-in-7-weeks-as-risk-appetite-returns
(9) https://cumtn.com/investors/press-releases/2022/copper-mountain-mining-announces-q2-2022-results-c-4401/
(10) https://produceredition.webcasts.com/starthere.jsp?ei=1557958&tp_key=b1495c40ef
(11) https://winshear.com/news/winshear-gold-announces-500-000-private-placement/
(12) https://www.elclarin.cl/2022/07/19/senador-velasquez-frvs-rechaza-advertencias-de-minera-bhp-ante-proyecto-de-
royalty-minero/
(13) https://es-us.vida-estilo.yahoo.com/mineras-chile-margen-impuestos-alza-152357928.html
(14) https://www.mining.com/chile-rejects-second-anglo-american-project-in-two-months/
(15) https://www.latercera.com/pulso/noticia/seis-proyectos-mineros-rechazados-ambientalmente-durante-este-
gobierno-el-vuelco-que-afecto-a-anglo-american/RBRVESJD7NGSTI77PIG6SYNSU4/
(16) https://www.business-humanrights.org/es/%C3%BAltimas-noticias/chile-comunidad-de-valpara%C3%ADso-
denuncia-que-presa-de-relaves-de-mina-el-soldado-de-anglo-american-est%C3%A1-en-riesgo-de-colapsar/
(17) https://es.euronews.com/next/2022/07/21/mineria-peru-bambas
(18) https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/bolsonaro-share-concerns-about-brazil-election-with-diplomats-2022-07-
18/
(19) https://brazilian.report/cartoons/2022/07/21/bolsonaro-takes-his-election-fraud-red-herring-global/
(20) https://www.lahora.com.ec/pais/mineria-consulta-previa-incumplimientos-inversion-ecuador/
(21) https://anacortesmining.com/2022/07/anacortes-reports-significant-near-surface-gold-intercepts-in-first-two-holes-
at-tres-cruces-phase-1-drilling-program/
(22) https://www.losandescopper.com/news/2022/los-andes-copper-announces-decision-by-the-environmental-court-
reinstating-drilling-permit/
(23) https://www.elmartutino.cl/noticia/medioambiente/es-incomprensible-alcalde-de-putaendo-reacciona-decision-del-
tribunal-sobre-mi
(24) https://belosun.com/news/belo-sun-reports-that-the-supreme-court-of-parxe1-state-has-overturned-the-preliminary-
suspension-order-issued-by-the-agrarian-court-of-altamira
(25) https://climainfo.org.br/2022/07/21/mesmo-com-veto-da-justica-federal-tj-do-para-libera-mina-de-ouro-no-xingu/
(26) https://whalewisdom.com/filer/cambria-investment-management-inc#tabholdings_tab_link
(27) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JMkZADIhxwY
(28) https://mebfaber.com/2022/07/20/e430-frank-giustra-ian-telfer/
28

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Set-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Abr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
29

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Ago-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Set-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Ene-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Set-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Ene-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Set-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Ago-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Abr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Set-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Abr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Set-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
30

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-ago-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-ene-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-abr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-abr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-ene-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-ene-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-abr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-abr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
31