IKN #687Premium

The IKN Weekly
Week 687, July 17th 2022
Contents
This Week: In Today’s Edition, Not selling any more shares, An adjustment to the ‘Stocks to
Follow’ list, “Not wrong, just early”.
Fundamental Analysis: Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) delivers on its quarter.
Stocks to Follow: Minera Alamos (MAI.v), Chesapeake Gold (CKG.v), Mene Inc (MENE.v),
Altiplano Metals (APN.v), Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v), QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v), Superior Gold (SGI.v).
Copper Basket: Overview, Oroco Resources (OCO.v), Marimaca Copper (MARI.to).
Producer Basket: Overview, Barrick (GOLD), Newmont (NEM), Gold Fields (GFI).
TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Aurelius (AUL.v), Kingfisher Metals (KFR.v).
Regional Politics: More on Chile’s Constitutional referendum vote, A LatAm forex update,
Peru: The knives are out for Pedro Castillo.
Market Watching: Dundee Precious Metals (DPM.to) lipsticks its Ecuador pig, Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v)
gets support from Atacama, Aris Gold (ARIS.to) is an obvious short, Goldshore Resources
(GSHR.v): Marking a potential future trade, Anacortes Mining Corp (XYZ.v) update.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
In Today’s Edition
 The macro backdrop continues to dominate our sector and the moves in share prices,
we await definition form the higher echelons of the financial world and signs of a true
bottom in metals prices. From now it’s a case of marking time and resisting the
temptation of some very cheap share prices; tomorrow they could be even cheaper.
 But fundies are as fundies do and the world of mining continues on. Today’s main
section considers the decent production results announced by our largest copper
position, Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) in 2q22. Then while on the ARG model, we stress
test upcoming quarters using lower copper input prices to see how far copper has to
drop before ARG has to change its budgets and plans. The answer seems to be “A Two
Handle” but with luck, we’ll never find that out.
 Even though it’s not normally part of our remit, we spend a little extra time on big PM
producer Barrick (GOLD) today as its 2q22 production numbers out last week set the
tone for the whole sector. A slightly sub-standard set of numbers on a bad day for gold
stocks was all it took to send them all tumbling hard.
 This week’s Regional Politics section is focused mainly on the ongoing turmoil in Chile,
now that the gloves are off and the new government of President Gabriel Boric is
pushing a harder Left wing manifesto than the one which got him the winning vote last
year. The key moment coming up is the Constitutional Referendum and all signs point
to the new draft document being rejected. Even Boric admitted as much last week.
 The ‘Market Watching’ section has been a little thin in recent editions, but that changes
1

today with a few ideas and thoughts on a pot-pourri of items. Accuse me of “do as I
say not as I do” if you want, I just throw these things out there.
Not selling any more shares
“The past is a foreign country: they do things differently there,”
L.P. Hartley, The Go-Between, 1953
As noted in the intro to IKN685 dated July 3rd entitled “Risk management in juniors means
being wrong about the market”, it’s not about being clever or stupid in a bear market or a sharp
sell-off in metals, it’s recognizing how stupid you are. A snippet from that intro two weeks ago:
“…no matter how leery the retail player might get, unless they fully sell a market when
it drops, they are going to be wrong. And that means, whatever I do as a market
participant it’s going to be wrong:
 Sell a few and the market drops, “Why didn’t you sell a lot?”
 Sell a lot and the market drops, “Why didn’t you sell them all?”
 Sell and the market rises, “Why did you sell?”
Etc
And that was written even before the Rio2 Top Pick trade blew up in my face, there’s no hiding
from mistakes or the harsh reality of today’s market going on round these parts. But that was
then, this is now and what’s done is done and more important is facing the future and with the
context laid out, the decision of this desk is not to sell any more shares.
In markets fair or foul, this desk bangs the drum of “I am not you, you are not me” and how
the “eat your own food” method of stock coverage at The IKN Weekly is the least worst method
to present information, rather than the best. That applies equally today and while risk tolerance
for junior trades takes different shapes and forms, one of the ways to manage risk is not to be
too exposed to the junior market in the first place. And that’s me, I’m the guy who is often too
chicken to buy into risky ideas, even ones floated toward your eyeballs as features in this
publication. However, the flipside is that when things get rough as they are today a lesser
amount of my total net worth is exposed to this most volatile and risky of sectors. I’m not trying
to downplay my exposure to the juniors market or attempt to fob off my exposure as mere “fun
money” or “cash I could lose without it affecting my life”: Not at all, those cliché do not apply to
this desk and to reiterate, the hit taken on Rio2 recently was significant and was more than
enough to drain the colour out of my cheeks on July 5th and 6th. However and today, what I do
know is that without deploying any new cash to the market until a clear bottom is put in, I’m
okay about letting the equities I still have ride.
So that’s what I plan to do for the indefinite future. Don’t expect any great changes either way
from The IKN ‘Stocks to Follow’ list, no new purchases or sales, until the market has settled and
shows some definition. Please keep that in mind as you consider your own exposure to the
juniors market in the weeks to come.
An adjustment to the ‘Stocks to Follow’ list
The following is also repeated below in the section notes, to make sure. As from today, the
section opened four months ago named “Three Trade Ideas From IKN670, March 2022”, with
the idea of tracking five companies we outlined as possible future trades has a new name, “A
Watchlist of Potential Trades.” Back in IKN670 we picked out five stocks, namely Meridian
(MNO.to), Superior Gold (SGI.v), Newcore Gold (NCAU.v), Electra Battery Materials (ELBM.v)
and Western Copper & Gold (WRN.to). Of the original five, one was promoted to the standard
list when I bought some (SGI.v) and one fell off as no longer interesting (MNO.to), leaving the
three we see today. There’s always been the clear caveat that I personally do NOT own shares
in the companies in this (new and experimental) section and that doesn’t change, instead the
context is changed. As from this week, the section is a simple watchlist which will allow me to
add other stocks that are interesting and worth following at the moment. I’m also looking to
expand the list and while this weekend it’s just three stocks, as from next weekend I plan to
2

add Anacortes (XYZ.v), the exploreco we’ve recently followed via the ‘Market Watching’ section,
and will probably include Goldshore (GSHR.v), as noted in passing in the same section. The
newly re-named watchlist won’t be fully inclusive and I reserve the right to add other stocks as
direct purchases in the future, but the new ordering will at least allow the reader to follow the
potential and prospective trades as covered in The IKN Weekly.
“Not wrong, just early”
The major influence on mining stocks is not complicated, nor is it obscured from view for any
mining sector participant. In normal times gold can move up or down by $50/oz but even so, a
decent drill result will still see your exploreco jump higher, or a bad quarter of production would
dump your producer stock (to name two of a dozen options). So even in normal times we know
the macro backdrop is a major factor for our sector of focus but its influence pales into
comparison to the current market; Macro is the absolute and overriding factor affecting share
prices at the moment, it therefore follows that we need to watch the deeper, tidal factors
moving the markets, it’s not enough to consider the movements gold, copper, silver etc
Which begs the question: How far down the rabbit hole does a newsletter focused on junior
mining companies go? The answer is “as little as possible” when the next week’s biggest macro
events are likely to be (1):
 Monday: The NAHB homebuilder survey
 Tuesday: Housing Starts for June
 Wednesday: Existing Home Sales
To take just one of those, according to two people who have forgotten more than I know about
the subject (2)…
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) is schedule to release June existing
home sales on Wednesday, July 20th at 10:00 AM ET. The consensus is for 5.40
million SAAR, down from 5.41 million last month. Based on Tom Lawler’s estimate, we
should expect a large negative surprise.
…both Mr. Lawler and my own US macro hero Bill McBride both expect a number nearer to
5.19m SAAR.
Enough of that. Seriously, how much do you want to know about the US housing market from a
(mostly LatAm) junior mining publication? The problem is that the world’s hawks and doves and
bulls and bears will pore over next week’s US housing data for clues and direction on the key
macro drivers to the current market and once they’ve made up their collective minds we’ll see
the result reflected on many charts, not least this one:
Wednesday’s newsflow dumped the US Treasurys yield curve from the modestly to clearly
negative and this weekend, the 0.2% reading has the world debating as to whether The
Federal Reserve hikes US rates by “only” 75bps on July 27th or whether they’re going to “Do A
Canada” and go the full hundred. And now we’re back on the subjects we’ve been tracking in
the most recent intro sections of The IKN Weekly, those that move the US Dollars and affect
the prices of metals as well as the key factors that affect their costs of production at mines
(salaries, oil, steel rebar, sulphuric acid and others in another long list).
Until these large, world scale factors sort themselves out there are no confident predictions on
3

the markets to make. Of course, we could look to the future and how the Fed’s window of
opportunity depends on its success in reeling in inflation (as we did last weekend) and while
there’s plenty of reasonable theory to abound, every day that it doesn’t happen is a day in
which the mining sector (to retain our focus) continues on its current bearish course. Yes, The
IKN Weekly could even join Goldman Sachs with its prediction this week of U$3.00/lb copper
prices today but an improvement to U$4.00/lb and above in 12 months’ time (see Copper
Basket). I wouldn’t be wrong, just early . But until such time as the market finds its base and
makes the turn, even calls made on sound economic theory are more bravado than based and
unless you can call the bottom of a market with aplomb, there’s no point in deploying new
capital into long positions. And sadly, this rant of an intro isn’t just high falutin’ nonsense from
the world of market theory: The bearish momentum means positive NRs from mining
companies are considered liquidity events allowing larger positions to cash out, while any NR
daring to report weak news is rewarded with a heavy price dump, no matter how temporary or
transient the reasons (and for more on that, see how Wesdome Gold (WDO.to) was beaten
around on Friday).
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) delivers on its quarter
On Tuesday July 12th our principle copper play, Amerigo Resources (ARG.to), announced its
2q22 production results as well as a few other preliminary data points to outline its current
financial state (3). Today’s job is to take a look at what the NR numbers hold and what they tell
us about the state of company financials as we
await the filings on August 3rd, but first let’s
check on how the market took in last week’s NR
via this ten-day chart:
It’s a bit of a theme today, but comparing the
performance of your copper stock to spot
copper (HG00, the continuous contract price)
helps frame things and while the red box on the
day of the release shows how the market
reacted positively to the news, there’s no real
escape from a short attention span and a
generalized sell-off for copper stocks these
days. The result is the same seen in other
places today (e.g. QCCU, OCO, others) and a copper stock that follows the drift of the sector.
However, the market did seem to applaud the ARG numbers for 24 whole hours and as it turns
out, rightly so. Let’s get into them, starting with the main production result:
ARG.to: Copper sales
Copper produced came to 14.92m lbs with sales almost exactly matching at 14.86m lbs. That
compares favourable to our estimate of 14m lbs for the quarter and means the company got
4
28.11 7.31 29.41 9.51 11.51 31.51 9.61 298.61 92.61 9.41 61 61
25
22.5
20
17.5
15
12.5
10 7.5
5
2.5
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 tse22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
source: company filings
rtq/uC
sblM

through its scheduled maintenance break at the MVC plant without any hitches. ARG remains
on track for its 2022 guidance number and that’s reflected in the estimates of 16m lbs produced
and sold in the next two quarters, as seen above. ARG reported an average received price of
U$4.10/lb for the quarter (right), which was below our estimate and suggests a sizeable
amount of shipments went out later in the quarter when copper prices had started to slip. By
comparison, Barrick (GOLD) this week reported an Q2 received copper price of U$4.33/lb.
Put sales and price together and this is the result, but please note the estimates for Q3 and Q4
because today, we are stress-testing the ARG model with artificial prices. More on that below:
ARG: Cu gross value, per qtr
5
6.83 1.43
7.24 6.34
8.12
8.43
2.05
4.16
7.66 4.17 1.96
3.57 4.97
0.16
4.45
0.84
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 tse22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
U$m
source: company filings, IKN ests
First 2q22 and gross unadjusted copper sales come to U$61.0m. We don’t know if ARG will
adjust that number as it sometimes does to
account for receipts from sales from previous
quarters, we find that out on August 3rd. But
before we go any further, a word on the estimates
for Q3 and Q4 which are based on these prices
(right). I don’t know whether the guesstimates are
correct or not for the next two quarters (frankly in
this market, nobody does), instead what we are
looking to achieve is a stress test of the current
ARG financial model. It may turn out that Q3 has
lower average prices and Q4 gets to rebound, it
could be vice-versa, all that is left for the future to
unveil. Today we assume…
 3q22 sells copper at U$3.40/lb average (i.e. above today’s spot)
 4q22 sells copper at U$3.00/lb average (i.e. below today’s spot)
…in order to test the model at lower prices and to see if ARG remains profitable and, not
insignificantly, can cover its proposed 3c/quarter dividend in the quarters to come. So the game
today is to crunch and refine Q2 estimates as well as stress test ARG for lower copper prices
and the best way forward on that is to consider the main costs incurred:
ARG: Main costs per Lb Cu
88.1
60.1
18.1
33.1
26.1
22.1
86.1
82.1
09.1
73.1
10.2
91.1
59.1
68.0
59.1
07.0
4.00
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00 0.50
0.00
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 tse22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
ARG: Average Cu price for MVC
U$/lb
cash cost/lb
DET royalty/lb sold
source: ARG data, IKN ests
In 2q22, we know ARG C1 costs came to $2.01 because they say so in the NR and ARG CEO
Davidson also informs us that the company is on track for an average $1.96/lb cash cost for the
29.2 76.2 26.2 67.2 53.2 16.2 40.3 25.3
80.4 44.4 32.4 23.4 46.4 01.4
04.3 00.3
5
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2 1.5
1
0.5
0
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 tse22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
U$/lb Cu
source: Company data/IKN ests

year, which smoothes out at $1.95/lb for the next two quarters. The other big cost component
at ARG is the El Teniente (DET) royalty, due to the owner of its feed (be it fresh or historic).
With Cu prices now dropping, the U$3.40/lb copper average would imply a royalty dropping to
U$0.86/lb (as seen in the theoretical Q3) and a U$3.00/lb Cu average at U$0.70/lb.
We can put those together with the average prices and get this visual, below:
ARG: Estimated margin/Lb Cu
6
49.2 80.4 41.1 41.3 44.4 03.1 48.2 32.4 93.1 69.2 23.4 63.1 72.3 46.4 73.1 02.3
01.4
09.0 18.2
04.3
95.0
56.2
00.3
53.0
5.00
4.50
4.00
3.50
3.00
2.50 2.00 1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 tse22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
U$/lb Cu main cost subtotal
Avg Cu price
difference
source: ARG data, IKN ests
For 2q22, we predict a U$0.90/lb margin on
main costs and that’s not bad. As for the test
cases of Q3 and Q4, U$3.40/lb produces a
U$0.59/lb margin to the same criteria and at
U$3.00/lb, it drops to U$0.35/lb. All that
gives a ballpark idea, but there are other
costs and credits at ARG such as transport
and smelting (right), plus the credits that
come from the small molybdenum by-
product (calculated at a flat $2m for all
quarters to end 2022).
So to arrive at a closer gross revenues total
we do all that and this chart results…
ARG: Gross Cu value vs Total revs, per qtr
637.72 296.22 9.33
474.53
836.51
640.62
555.73
881.74 709.84 305.05 231.84 900.25 567.35
50.93 39.53
31.23
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 tse22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
ARG: Charges to gross Cu value
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
U$m
source: company filings, IKN ests
…from which we subtract the C1 costs and arrive at a gross profit estimate of U$9m for 2q22:
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 tse22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
U$m
Transport
smelting/refining
DET royalties
source: company filings, IKN ests

ARG.to: Quarterly Earnings overview
7
139.8-
593.0-
389.8
927.51
878.81 721.91
291.41
198.91 624.12
9
6 2
65
60
55
50
45
40 35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 tse22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
revenues
COGS
Gross profit
Meanwhile and as you can probably make out, we estimate the 3q22 model of U$3.40/lb
copper to return a U$6m gross profit, then the 4q22 model using U$3.00/lb at U$2m gross
profit. We then back out the normally modest BTL costs and here’s the result:
ARG.to: Gross, operating and net profits, per qtr
09.4- 13.3-
60.8
44.31
40.61 70.81
56.21
15.71
10.12
00.7
00.4
00.0
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 tse22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
U$m Gross profit
op profit
Net Income
source: ARG data
The gross/operating/net estimates chart has operating profits labelled, as it’s more important
than the net number (as mentioned on several previous occasions). The model estimates 2q22
operating profits at U$7m, then the U$3.40/lb model at $4m and U$3.00/lb predicts breakeven.
The implication to the 2q22 estimates are that ARG will make more than enough to cover its
present financial obligations. As for 2q22, those include the scheduled half-yearly U$3.5m debt
payment (that went out as expected on June 30th), the expected capex budget and the next
3c/quarter dividend, as well as the recently completed share buyback program. As for the
U$3.40/lb scenario in upcoming quarters, the U$4m in operating profit covers the dividend
(which should cost a touch under U$4m at the current share count and USD/CAD forex) but
leaves what’s left of the modest 2022 capex budget to come out of treasury. Finally, the
U$3.00/lb scenario puts operations at breakeven, which means things such as dividends,
capex/sustaining capex and the next U$3.5m debt instalment comes out of treasury, too.
Summing that up:
 2q22: No problems with current obligations
 The U$3.40/lb copper scenario: ARG can continue for several quarters with only
slight depletion to treasury
 The U$3.00/lb copper scenario: Operations are at breakeven, which will mean a
change in outgoings at some point in the medium-term
Therefore, the next 3c dividend is covered by current earnings, even after the completion of the
NCIB share buyback program during Q2. There’s no reason to think Q4 is threatened either and
that gets us out the back of 2022 and at that point, we’ll be able to consider the 2023 plans in
light of the copper price at that time.
With that in mind, here’s a preview of the estimated balance sheet positions as at 2q22 that
should give us an idea of how many dividends ARG will be able to pay in a lower copper price

environment without feeling the pinch. We start with assets, which are set to drop overall
thanks to the recent buyback program, dividend payments and the June 30th debt instalment.
In last week’s NR ARG pre-announced its Cash & Restricted Cash position as at June 30th of
U$57.2m, which implies the Cash& ST line item at around U$56.4m and with plenty of liquidity
for upcoming payments (capex, dividends, etc).
ARG.to: Total Assets
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Liabilities shouldn’t change in any great amount, the biggest lumps in the currents are the
rolling amounts for accounts payable and
royalty provisions to DET.
More interesting is the working capital
position, which we estimate at U$256m as at
end 2q22. With CEO Davidson on record as
stating that she will be comfortable with a
working cap position that fluctuates between
U$15m and $25m, this means ARG is running
plenty of leeway going into 3q22 for that
dividend obligation. With copper prices this
volatile it’s not so smart to make firm
predictions about the entire balance sheet for
Q3 and Q4 at the moment, but as long as we
assume a reasonable floor in the price of copper
and nothing under $3.00/lb appears for longer than
a few days, the cash drain from budgeted works
and the assumed continuation of the 3c Canadian
per quarter dividend won’t see cash drop below
U$46m by the end of this year. Or put simply, it
would take a wholesale copper crash from these
levels for ARG to change its 3c/quarter dividend
policy in 2022.
The bottom line to ARG and its 2q22 production
numbers: While average received price for copper is
lower than expected, the 14.9m lbs copper produced and sold was a good number for a Q2 that
included the scheduled maintenance interruption. Guidance from the company was in-line with
expectations and while the copper price has dumped significantly in the last few weeks, it’s the
only thing they cannot control and the parallel drop in the Chilean Peso will help keep ongoing
costs under control in USD terms. Importantly, the key dividend policy shouldn’t come under
any pressure this year even with the current low copper prices and ARG has the cash treasury
to fund all its stated obligations without any stress for 2022 and if copper stays away from the
U$3.00/lb line, there’s no reason to expect the 3c payments to drop in 2023 either. There is
clearly some doubt about the payment of an eventual top-up dividend, copper would have to
move up to U$3.80/lb or U$4.00/lb for that to become juicy again. However, 12c annual
payments on a stock currently trading at $1.13 still makes for a 10%+ yield and that’s nothing
8
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 tse22q2
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
ARG.to: Liabilities Breakdown per qtr
200
cash&eq Trade/Rec
Inventory other current 180
fixed 160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 tse22q2
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
LT liab
current liab
ARG.to: Working capital
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 tse22q2
U$m
source company filings
ARG.to: Cash and ST
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 tse22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
$m
source: company filings

to sniff at in this market. That alone will provide downside equity price protection and makes
today’s price an obvious bargain in a beaten up copper space.
Stocks to Follow
The sell-off continued last week and there’s no disguising the direction of the market for mining
stocks of all sizes. With that said, of the 11 losers on our list only one stock suffered a double-
figure percentage loss (ALDE.v down exactly 10.0%). Meanwhile there were three week-over-
week winners (PA.v, NCAU.v and MENE.v which moved up 14.3%) from the smaller-sized
speculative end of the list. Again, not trying to lipstick the pig but there was enough to suggest
a bottom of sorts forming.
Please note the change in labelling on the list, inspired as much by necessity as the desire to
keep the ‘Stocks to Follow’ list real, with the following repeated from today’s intro section (to
make sure it’s seen). As from today, the section opened four months ago with the idea of
tracking five companies we outlined as possible future trades has a new name, “A Watchlist of
Potential Trades.” Back in IKN670 we picked out five stocks, namely Meridian (MNO.to),
Superior Gold (SGI.v), Newcore Gold (NCAU.v), Electra Battery Materials (ELBM.v) and Western
Copper & Gold (WRN.to). Of the original five, one was promoted to the standard list when I
bought some (SGI.v) and one fell off as no longer interesting (MNO.to), leaving the three we
see today. There’s always been the clear caveat that I personally do NOT own shares in the
companies in this (new and experimental) section and that doesn’t change, instead the context
is changed. As from this week, the section is a simple watchlist which will allow me to add other
stocks that are interesting and worth following at the moment. I’m also looking to expand the
list and while this weekend it’s just three stocks, as from next weekend I plan to add Anacortes
(XYZ.v), the exploreco we’ve recently followed via the ‘Market Watching’ section, and will
probably include Goldshore (GSHR.v), as noted in passing in the same section. The newly re-
named watchlist won’t be fully inclusive and I reserve the right to add other stocks as direct
purchases in the future, but the new ordering will at least allow the reader to follow the
potential and prospective trades as covered in The IKN Weekly.
There are still only 14 open positions and same as last week, just Top Pick Minera Alamos
remains in the green.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.46 119.0% $1.14 tgt, #1 idea on FY22 dev
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Amerigo Res ARG.to STR BUY C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.13 -16.9% $2.40 tgt on FY22 guidance
Superior Gold SGI.v STR BUY C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.69 -27.4% Au prod jr, cheap & improving
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v SPEC BUY C$0.275 25-Apr-21 C$0.145 -47.3% Now drilling. Easy hold
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v HOLD C$0.83 22-Apr-18 C$0.15 -81.9% Downgrade on permit denial
SPECULATIVE TRADES
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v SPEC BUY C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$2.02 -34.2% Au leverage, small trade so far
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v SPEC BUY C$0.72 16-May-21 C$0.63 -12.5% hole 221 may give boost
Palamina Corp PA.v SPEC BUY C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.12 -59.3% Au expl in S.Peru
Altiplano Metals APN.v HOLD C$0.31 17-Sep-21 C$0.175 -43.5% Cheap entry, plan on track.
Minera IRL MIRL.cse hold C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.09 -53.8% CEO change will move stock
A WATCHLIST OF POTENTIAL TRADES. NB: I DO NOT OWN
Newcore Gold NCAU.v WATCH C$0.51 20-Mar-22 C$0.265 -48.0% tracking IKN670 idea
Electra Battery ELBM.v WATCH C$5.31 20-Mar-22 C$3.35 -36.9% tracking IKN670 idea
Western Copper WRN.to SPEC BUY C$2.41 20-Mar-22 C$1.66 -31.1% tracking IKN670 idea
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.66 6-Dec-20 C$0.64 -3.0% LT bet, adding slowly
9

CLOSED TRADES IN 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Sep-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
Discovery Silver DSV.v Jun'22 C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.39 -21.5% Cutting Ag exp.& raising cash
Element 29 ECU.v Jul'22 C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.30 -48.3% sold to cut Cu exposure
2015 to 2021 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for a few notes just one or two of the covered companies:
Minera Alamos (MAI.v): Even this stock got hit by selling at any price last week, when
Thursday morning saw its price spike as low as 41.5c before it recovered.
Meanwhile, we understand that the non-brokered private placement announced on June 23rd
has closed in good order and at the original price of 55c, which shows insto loyalty to a stock
that has spent a few weeks under the price. The gross proceeds of C$4.37m will make sure any
lag in reception of funds from the gold sales out of Santana are covered, allowing MAI to move
forward at its preferred pace on its growth plans at Santana and Cerro de Oro.
Chesapeake Gold (CKG.v): No news and thin volumes are still the order of the day. We
await news on the key issue for 2022, those met tests
that should start showing soon. But while we patiently
hold for real news, a quick thought today on the way
CKG is trading because as this chart shows, you can
drive a truck through this company’s bid/ask at the
moment. For example, on Friday alone just three trades
and less than 20k shares dropped the price from $2.19
to $1.86 (-15.1%), then just two more small trades
brought it back up over the $2.00 line and added 16c to
the share price. When the market this ignored and
erratic the only logical thing to do is ignore the day-to-
day stuff, unless of course you’re looking to add
cheaply. In that case, please do yourself a favour and
do not pay the ask. Instead, throw in a cheap bid and see if somebody bites
Mene Inc (MENE.v): Much the same story at MENE as at CKG. This one also gets a quick
mention because despite registering a big percentage win on the week with no news, might
have just as easily closed under 50c:
10

The bottom of a market will show this type of thin, erratic and directionless trade pattern in
junior stocks. It’s part of the furniture.
Altiplano Metals (APN.v): Away from the
lacklustre share price performance (and let’s not shy
away from that, here’s the YTD chart right), APN
continues to deliver on its mine plan at Farellon and
on Wednesday July 13th we got the latest update
from the small producing asset (4). The main thrust
was to report on the good progress made by its
“Hugo Decline”, which has now reached 352 level,
with (and let’s quote), “Further development of the
Hugo Decline to the 344 m level is expected to begin
in the next four weeks with a time frame of
approximately 12 weeks to reach the new targeted
intersection.” The NR came with a useful and
instructive visual, repeated here:
To the left we see the development levels, with APN reporting mining now happening at the
368 and 360 levels, then the newly reached 352 level being prepared for the same type of
benching. These new levels will provide the feed for APN’s new mill and while the complex is
slightly behind schedule, we’re now at the cusp of production and the fruits should show in a
marked improvement in production of copper and the new circuit product of iron ore, as from
3q22. APN isn’t unique in being a victim of the market downturn, but it’s now standing still and
it’s now delivering on its growth plan. No resting on laurels allowed.
11

Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v): We got the expected NR from RIO on Monday afternoon (5), which stated
the expected, “We need to wait for the official decision document before the next move”, but
added some extra:
The Company, along with its Chilean environmental and legal advisors, are currently
evaluating options to continue to advance the Project. A key document the Company is
waiting for is the Environmental Qualification Resolution (“RCA”) which is the
administrative document with which the Environmental Assessment Service (“SEA”),
outlines the rationale for their decision. The RCA is expected within the next three
weeks and the Company is finalizing its action plan thereafter.
Once the EIA action plan is completed, the Company anticipates announcing a revised
timeline of its proposed activities and how it intends to execute and finance the plan
forward.
That’s not just hot air. For one, there’s a clearly defined appeals process that Rio2 can follow,
much the same as the one Anglo is currently using for its Los Bronces expansion project. For
another and as outlined last week, once we know the official reasons for Chile’s rejection of the
Fenix project, the company can address those issues and according to the law, the project
would then have to be permitted. Now for sure that dry reading of the law doesn’t take into
account the obvious political angle now affecting this project (and Chile’s wider mining sector),
but it behooves RIO.v to stick to the letter of the law.
As for trading, Rio2 bounced up and down and while it closed with a loss on the week, it needs
to form some sort of baseline and after the system shock it took on July 5th. Finally, please note
the translation of the op-ed on this issue from Atacama’s main chamber of commerce in ‘Market
Watching’, below.
QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v): The NR published
Tuesday July 5th was and we repood and showed
the company moving forward with its plan. We
reported as such last weekend, but just by laying
the last ten days of QCCU’s price action next to
the spot copper line tells us of the real price
driver:
All the good news in the world can’t fight the funk
currently covering the copper sub-sector.
Superior Gold (SGI.v): No 2q22 production numbers from AGI last week, which means the
NR is odds-on to show in the week ahead.
In much the same way as QCCU and the copper line
above, the relationship between SGI and the wider
market for juniors is clear. However, this case also
shows appetite to buy on an change in mood. Agreed
the Wednesday’s rally was fleeting and the way
selling resumed in gold the next day scuppered the
cause, but when we consider SGI’s relatively small
size compared to the typical component of the GDXJ,
the volume pop it enjoyed that day tells us it’s on
quite a few radars. Come the day gold truly makes
its turn, SGI should move up in the first ranks.
The Copper Basket
After twenty-eight weeks of 2022, The Copper Basket shows a loss of 50.57% level stakes:
12

company ticker price 1/1/22 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Copper Mtn CMMC.to 3.42 210.166 304.74 1.45 -57.6%
2 Western Copper WRN.to 2.00 151.451 251.41 1.66 -17.0%
3 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.77 88.118 238.80 2.71 -28.1%
4 Oroco Res OCO.v 2.04 203.4 136.28 0.67 -67.2%
5 Nevada Copper NCU.to 0.71 448.437 94.17 0.21 -70.4%
6 Regulus Res. REG.v 1.06 101.845 78.42 0.77 -27.4%
7 Meridian Min MNO.to 1.18 153.735 76.87 0.50 -57.6%
8 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.84 114.495 72.13 0.63 -25.0%
9 Hot Chili HCH.v 1.53 109.223 61.16 0.56 -63.4%
10 C3 Metals CCCM.v 0.16 645.379 35.50 0.055 -65.6%
11 Kutcho Copper KC.v 0.88 103.94 26.50 0.255 -71.0%
12 Doré Copper DCMC.v 0.79 66.123 24.80 0.375 -52.5%
13 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.58 79.24 23.77 0.30 -48.3%
14 QC Copper QCCU.v 0.34 129.06 18.71 0.145 -57.4%
15 Coast Copper COCO.v 0.13 41.335 2.69 0.065 -50.0%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg -50.57%
Ten out of the 15 basket components have now lost 50% or more of share price since the start
of the year, by far the worst performance for this
sub-section since we began the series and most of The Copper Basket 2022, weekly evolution
10%
that carnage has happened in the last two
0%
months. As for this week, there were only three
-10%
week-over-week winners (NCU.to, CCCM.v, KC.v)
-20%
and as two of those rose by 2% and all three have
-30%
already been broken into a thousand pieces, it’s
-40%
tough even to find a silver lining there. One other
stock remained unchanged (REG.v) and that -50%
leaves 12 losers, including double-figure -60%
percentage losers Meridian (MNO.to down
18.0%), Marimaca (MARI.to down 14.5%),
Copper Mountain (CMMC.to down 14.2%), Hot
Chili (HCH.v down 11.1%) and Aldebaran (ALDE.v down 10.0%), with QC Copper & Gold
(QCCU.v down 9.4%) only just missing the cut.
And why so? Here’s 20 days of copper:
Forget 2015’s slump from U$3/lb to U$2/lb, you can even shelf the 2011 sell-off in copper than
dumped the price from U$4.50/lb to U$3.00/lb in less than a month, this downturn from
U$5.00/lb to this weekend’s U$3.25/lb or so is the worst sell-off seen in the metal since the GFC
13
ts1naJ ht9naJ ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6bef ht31 ht02 ht72 t6raM ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3rpA ht01 ht71 ht42 1yam ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5nuj ht21 ht91 ht62 dr3yluj ht01 ht71
source: IKN calcs

of 2008 and even the bearish of bears wouldn’t have guessed the selling would take copper this
low. We leave it to Bloomberg and this Scorched Earth of a report to flesh out the carnage (6):
Markets have been plagued by two main worries: that Europe will slip into recession
due to punishing energy prices and that China’s biggest cities will continue to be
locked down due to the country’s Covid-zero policy.
We know that, we also know that China’s GDP growth print of 2.8% on Friday means it’s going
to miss the annual 5.5% target by a mile. The same Bloomie report continues with:
“The macro environment has definitely taken a turn for the worse,” Bank of America
Corp. strategist Michael Widmer said by phone. “Every region has slightly different
dynamics, but none of them look particularly bullish at the moment.”
However, RTZ buries a lede in its comment:
Rio Tinto Group added to warnings on the global economy, calling headwinds in China
“considerable” and saying that pressure on global supply chains needs to ease
significantly before inflationary pressures soften.
And there we are again, considering stagflation as the next step and if so, copper’s bottom
cannot be far away. Then again I said that at U$3.80/lb so WDIK? In other news we also heard
from 2022’s cheerleader bullish voice in copper, Goldman Sachs (7):
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. this week forecast copper to trade at $6,700 in the next
three months, a 22% downgrade from its previous outlook.
In fact that’s the second price target drop announced by Goldman in July and should read that
it’s 22% down from the target before that first downgrade. To flesh out the new targets, The
Vampire Squid predicts copper in three months at U$6,700/mt (was U$8,650/mt), its six month
forecast is U$7,600/mt (was U$10,500/mt) and it’s 12 month price target is U$9,000/mt (was
U$12,000/mt). And for context:
 U$6,700/mt = U$3.04/lb
 U$7,600/mt = U$3.45/lb
 U$9,000/mt = U$4.08/lb
For what it’s worth, your author with eyes firmly fixed on real world supply and demand for Dr.
Copper has no issue with that 12-month forecast, there will be a bottom to this (now over-
extended) sell-off in copper, which in turn suggests a snap-back rally that will make for some
juicy gains. Timing is another question, of course. Now we move to the regular weekly look at
world copper inventories data:
 The aggregate of the three world copper systems dropped modestly last week for the
first time in a few weeks, the total closing down 3,675 metric tonnes (mt) on Friday at
262,181mt. Again as we noted last weekend, the drop in the price of copper cannot be
blamed on the real market for the physical stuff.
 The SHFE was the only one to register a week-over-week gain, with a small 1,979mt
added to stocks.
 A small drawdown at the LME, with stocks down 2,600mt in quiet movements all over
its world warehouse systems and a Friday
LME: Cu tonnage under cancelled warrant close of 130,425mt. To reiterate the minor
datapoint from last week, cancelled warrants
again rose modestly to 18,525mt. the
changes aren’t big compared to previous
months but the small drop in overall inventory and the small rise in cancelled
warrants pull in the same direction and
suggest demand improvement. That old
saying about the best cure for low demand
14
00142 52074 57334 00714 52045 05205 52027 52418 52926 05694 57332 52271 05761 52511 57471 52581
100000
90000
80000
70000
60000
50000 40000 30000
20000
10000
0
dr3rpa ht01 ht71 ht42 1.yam ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5nuj ht21 ht91 ht62 dr3yluj ht01 ht71
mt Cu
source: Cochilco

being low prices comes to mind.
 At the Comex, a relatively chunky drop in stocks of 3,054mt, to close Friday at
60,424mt.
Here are the dedicated SHFE charts and we’re now approach an inflection point for copper
inventories.
Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2014 to date
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
15
31'13ceD dr32 ht02 ht51 ht01 ht5tco ht03 ht52 dn22 ht71 ht21 ht6pes ts1von 5102ht72ced ts12 ht71 ht21 ht7guA dn2tcO ht4ceD ht92 ht62 ts12 ht61 ht01 7102
ht5von
ts13 ht52 dn22 ht42 ht91 ht41 ht9 9102
dr3bef
ts13 ht62 ts12 ht51 ht01 0202ht5naj 0202ts1ram ht62 ts12 ht61 ht11 0202ht6ced ts13 ht82 dr32 ht81 ht21 ht7 2202dn2naj ht72 ht42 ht91
Mt Cu
|
source: Cochilco
SHFE copper inventory levels, 2018 to 2022
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
MT Cu 2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
source: Cochilco data
No obvious sign of the standard seasonal drawdown yet, but we’re starting from a low level this
year. The verdict will be in by August. Now for notes on just a couple of basket stocks. On days
like these it feels as though I’m picking unfairly on the companies by giving them some space,
so be clear that I could have said something equally as negative about REG, CMMC, KC etc.
Oroco Resources (OCO.v): Drill results from two holes were reported on Friday 15th (8) and
while the overall grades were slightly lower than the average at Santo Tomas, there was
nothing to complain about and the news was very much in-line with expectations. However, the
NR was greeted in this way by the market:

As an excuse to sell, with a larger position of perhaps half a million shares keen to use the NR
as an excuse to liquidate. That’s all you need to know about this current market, where a
normal participants idea of in-line news is the shareholder’s idea of a liquidity event. The stock
came off its worst 61c price to close at 67c, but only with small fish nibbling.
Marimaca Copper (MARI.to): Another chart
pattern that tells us support trades are 10x lower
volumes than sell trades:
To its credit, MARI hasn’t seen an acceleration in
volume in the last few days, or even weeks, which
speaks of strong hands among its biggest insto
backers even in the face of a hostile permitting
environment in the country. And though MARI
hasn’t escaped the selling in the sector, once
again all you have to do is add the HG00 line
(copper continuous contract) and the relationship
is crystal clear:
For better MARI prices, spot copper has to turn its corner. As difficult and as simple as that.
The Producer Basket
After twenty-eight weeks of 2022, the Producer Basket shows a loss of 18.41% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/22 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 62.02 797.44 43.64 54.73 -11.8%
2 Barrick GOLD 19.00 1779 27.86 15.66 -17.6%
3 Franco-Nevada FNV 138.29 191.192 24.33 127.28 -8.0%
4 Agnico Eagle AEM 53.14 454.904 19.38 42.61 -19.8%
5 Wheaton PM WPM 42.93 450.3 15.22 33.80 -21.3%
6 Gold Fields GFI 10.99 887.72 7.80 8.79 -20.0%
7 Kinross Gold KGC 5.81 1296.5 4.01 3.09 -46.8%
8 B2Gold BTG 3.93 1055.6 3.36 3.18 -19.1%
9 Alamos Gold AGI 7.69 392.503 2.77 7.06 -8.2%
10 Sandstorm SAND 6.20 191.4 1.05 5.48 -11.6%
All prices and stock quotes in U$ Port. avg -18.41%
Another week in which all ten of our producer stocks lost ground, victims of a week in which
our gold bullion proxy GLD lost 2.03%. Our basket performed in-line with the general market
and there was no big difference between this list and the 5.4% lost by GDX on the week. As for
the basket components, the typical loss was between 4% and 5%, with the biggest loser
Barrick (GOLD) down 8.9%, followed by fellow Tier 1 bigwig Newmont (NEM down 7.8%) and
16

the now perma-weak Kinross (KGC down 7.8%). Meanwhile, the least worst was Alamos Gold
(AGI down “only” 2.2%).
The 2022 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
35% comparative to GDX control
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%
Barrick (GOLD): Thursday was a bad day all round for the mining producer sector, with the
Americas market opening to a 2% drop in the overnight gold price and, timed to perfection,
Barrick reporting its preliminary 2q22 production numbers (9). That nice Mr. Market got as far
as the end of paragraph three…
Compared to Q1, Q2 gold cost of sales per ounce is expected to be 1% to 3% higher,
total cash costs per ounce are expected to be 2% to 4% higher and all-in sustaining
costs per ounce are expected to be 3% to 5% higher.
….and hit the sell button. In fact the overall production and sales numbers in ounces were
reasonably good and in-line wit annual guidance, here’s how Q2 sales stacked up as the
company crept back over the 1moz/qtr line:
Barrick (GOLD): Segment sales, per qtr Nevada GM Loulo-Gounkoto
Pueblo Viejo Kibali
source: company filings
North Mara Veladero
Bulyanhulu Tongon
Hemlo Buzwagi
Au Koz
Porgera
1300
1200
1100
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1q20 2q20 3q20 4q20 1q21 2q21 3q21 4q21 1q22 2q22
, but this market is looking for excuses to sell and talk of up to 5% higher AISC was enough to
send the stock tumbling:
17
ts1naJ ht9naJ ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6bef ht31 ht02 ht72 t6ram ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3rpa ht01 ht71 ht42 1yam ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5nuj ht21 ht91 ht62 dr3luj ht01 ht71
The 2022 Producer Basket: Percentage difference
between GDX benchmark & basket (negative = IKN ahead) 5.0%
4.5%
ikn 4.0%
3.5%
gdx control 3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
-0.5%
-1.0%
source: NYSE, IKN Calcs
ts1naJ ht9naJ ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6bef ht31 ht02 ht72 t6ram ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3rpa ht01 ht71 ht42 1yam ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5nuj ht21 ht91 ht62 dr3luj ht01 ht71
source: IKN calcs, NYSE data

We include GDX as the benchmark and NEM, of course, as the world’s biggest gold miner was
duly whacked by the GOLD cost forecast in much the same way. We went into some detail
about the close correlation between
Pueblo Viejo
GOLD and NEM financials through the Au Koz Barrick (GOLD): The Newmont JVs
Nevada GM
4q21 and 1q22 reporting periods and 800
how the JVs in Nevada (a big slice of 700
113
overall company production) and 600 144 115 129 153
141 125
Dominican Republic (Pueblo Viejo 500 118 104 102
provides some of the cheapest gold 400
ounces in production terms) set the 300 611
tone for both companies. In the GOLD 200 528 522 542 542 488 455 485 458 463
2q22 NR, the cost creep for Nevada
100
will duly affect NEM as well, while
0
Pueblo Viejo continues to show
1q20 2q20 3q20 4q20 1q21 2q21 3q21 4q21 1q22 2q22
production decline as that country source: company filings
drags its feet on permitting the key
tailings dam upgrade that will allow the mine to increase throughput and get back to the
production cadence of previous years.
Barrick reports its quarter on August 8th, so three weeks to go before we get the official
numbers but with the amount of information in this preliminary report, the top lines are now
telegraphed. GOLD also got another negative later that same Thursday when Chile’s Supreme
Court ratified the definitive closure decision on the Chilean side of the Pascua Lama mine
project, a White Elephant of two decades at the company that made bad environmental
headlines long before the current Boric government came to power. However, this definitive
decision didn’t come as a shock to anyone and was handed down after GOLD’s appeal to the
highest court in the land, so the market took it in its stride.
Newmont (NEM): We reference the same price chart above, as well as some of the joint
commentary in the GOLD comments, regarding NEM and its sharp sell-off last week. However
in NEM’s case please home in on the trading Thursday, in which Barrick (GOLD) dropped to
oversold out the gate on Thursday and as the day wore one, gradually clawed some price back.
Not so for NEM, as the market deduced the bad sauce was for both and NEM remained a clear
under-performer compared to the GDX benchmark through Thursday and Friday in to the close.
The epitome of a harsh and unforgiving market, NEM was whacked to within a couple of tenths
of the losses taken by the company that reported its costs hikes.
This leaves NEM open to the potential of a rebound when it reports its 2q22 (NEM doesn’t pre-
announce production). That comes earlier than GOLD on Monday, July 25, 2022, i.e. in two
Mondays’ time and the link to the conf call at 10am ET the same morning is here (10). A date
for your diary.
Gold Fields (GFI): With the market still highly sceptical of its proposed deal with Yamana
(AUY), GFI swung into the offensive early Monday with this NR (11), in which GFI tried to
sweeten the deal for its shareholders by promising them a higher percentage cash dividend
from the combined company and also responding to Canadian shareholders of AUY stock by
promising a listing for GFI on the Toronto exchange.
The charm offensive to what South Africa’s prestigious business news site Business Live now
calls “Griffith’s Great Gold Gamble” (12) also came with a Conference Call on Monday which
featured both CEO Chris Griffith of GFI and CEO Peter Marrone of AUY talking up the deal.
Here’s how Reuters gauged the reaction (13):
Analysts at RBC Capital Markets expressed doubt that Monday's announcement would
sway sceptical investors.
"In our view, these changes are incremental in nature, we view no material variances
from our prior transaction takeaways, and we view a high hurdle for transaction
completion success remaining," RBC said in a note.
18

Maybe not as enthusiastic as the combo of CEOs would prefer. We also have a vote date slated
for the deal, with the GFI October AGM
now an SGM. With large GFI holders Van
Eck and Redwheel both continuing to
oppose the deal it’s in for a rough
passage, though we note any failure
would hit GFI harder than AUY, even
though Marrone is obviously keen to close
on a deal he’s been trying to make for at
least two years. The break fee for AUY
would cushion that company’s fall (and
probably see GFI CEO Griffith’s head roll).
As for trading, this chart basically shows
how the market took GFI’s initiative in its
stride and didn’t register much change in
sentiment toward the deal. And even
though in an interview on Friday CEO Griffith said that GFI didn’t plan to sweeten the deal any
further (alluding to a frank exchange with Redwheel that same day), another sweetener
wouldn’t be a surprise what with the break fee now in play.
The TinyCaps List
After twenty-eight weeks of 2022, the TinyCaps show a loss of 30.41% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/22 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Aurelius Min AUL.v 0.24 45.836 4.58 0.10 -58.3%
Golden Pursuit GDP.v 0.13 34.638 5.54 0.16 23.1%
Infield Min INFD.v 0.06 48.445 2.18 0.045 -25.0%
Kingfisher Met KFR.v 0.30 103.007 18.54 0.18 -40.0%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.12 57.296 4.58 0.08 -33.3%
Manitou Gold MTU.v 0.06 344.57 12.06 0.035 -41.7%
Melkior Res MKR.v 0.295 24.011 5.76 0.24 -18.6%
Precipitate Gold PRG.v 0.105 129.322 8.41 0.065 -38.1%
Signature Res SGU.v 0.07 238.4 8.34 0.035 -50.0%
Winshear Gold WINS.v 0.08 61.585 4.00 0.065 -18.8%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg -30.41%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $20m. They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a
little and allowed sub-U$20m market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, but it was a particularly depressing exercise to trawl through the whole of the TSXV and find companies
that are small enough, but with life in them. The vast majority of sub-$20m stocks are broken stocks, either
traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2020. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
On the bright side, losers were in a minority on the week in this representative basket of
tinycap stocks, with four downers (GDP.v, KFR.v, LMS.v, PRG.v) out of ten and of those, only
one was a double figure percentage loss, (Latin Metals LMS.v down 15.8%). There were three
19

unchanged stocks (INFD.v, MKR.v, SGU.v) and the other three were weekly winners (AUL.v,
MTU.v, WINS.v) so considering the continued
selling larger caps it could have been worse 15% TinyCaps, 2022 weekly tracker
10%
down here. On the other hand, we need to be
5%
clear about the weak signal because however
0%
nice it it might be to think this Basket is -5%
sending a bottom signal after the wretched -10%
-15%
and extended downleg we’ve suffered in
-20%
mining stocks of all sizes in the last three
-25%
months, until volume picks up there’s no real -30%
reason to trust the message. Any of these -35%
stocks could be bent out of shape with just a
modest uptick in traded volumes, we’re in a
world that allows $20k of shares moved to
shift market caps by $2m and more (sometimes a lot more).
Aurelius Minerals (AUL.v): On Monday, AUL filed its previously announced 43-101 compliant
maiden resource estimate (MRE) technical report to SEDAR. The results of the MRE were first
announced in the company’s May 26th NR and by way of a reminder, here’s the main resource
count table from that:
May 26th was also the day the selling began in earnest
in this stock and as this two-month chart shows, AUL
got the double-whammy of timing its disappointing
MRE number with the sector sell-off. So while GDXJ is
down around 20% in the last two months (right),
Aurelius has been whacked by 60%. However, the tail
end of the chart also shows that AUL’s losses have
stopped over the last three weeks and even managed
to add a penny, from 9c to 10c, last week. We’ve
reached the bottom in this beaten-up name, it seems.
Kingfisher Metals (KFR.v): It’s annoying to see KFR
jump on the latest fashionable promo bandwagon,
that of reporting XRF analysis results in their NR of Tuesday July 12th (14). The use of hand-
held XRF analysis, basically a gun that gives a preliminary and approximate reading of a suite of
elements, is nothing new in exploration and any geology team worth its salt will either have/use
one, or at least have the option on-hand. It gives a rough and ready idea of mineralization and
content and for what it’s worth, I once had a fun time going round a mining show after
borrowing an XRF gun, checking out samples at dozens of booths.
However, KFR decided to incorporate its XRF (or pXRF
for Portable X-Ray Fluorescence, to be exact) “results”
into last week’s NR, giving an emphasis on elements
considered pathfinders for gold in this locality, namely
arsenic, copper and zinc. The NR came with diagrams
to show where mineralization was found in the series of
relatively shallow rotary air blast (RAB) holes (cheap
and quick, resulting in chip samples) and a table of
numbers with hole depth and XRF numbers. Be clear,
the XRF results do not mean a thing. The very best you
20
dn2naJ ht9
naJ
ht61naJ dr32 ht03 ht6bef ht31 ht02 ht72 ht6ram ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3rpa ht01 ht71 ht42 ts1yam ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5nuj ht21 ht91 ht62 dr3yluj ht01 ht71
source: IKN calcs, TSX data

can take away from the information is “the hole is mineralized”, something KFR could have told
us without quoting XRF numbers that most other explorecos will know internally but don’t
release to the public. Because there’s no point. Or in CEO Dustin Perry’s words:
“RAB drilling coupled with pXRF analysis at Day Trip has efficiently outlined an open-
ended hydrothermal footprint typical of gold mineralization on surface. Results to date
indicate that the system may be considerably larger than what we had initially
interpreted. The Company will update the market on developments from the gold
assay results in due course.”
In other words, the same with or without the XRF numbers, however at least a few market
participants seem to have taken the bait, but the 10% pop on Tuesday didn’t hold and by the
end of the week, it needed a little tape paint on Friday to close the week just half a cent down.
If KFR truly has something at the Day Trip Zone of Goldrange, we’ll find out when the assay
results are reported from the 27 holes now into the target. We won’t know from the type of
made-for-greenhorn NR we got from this company last week. Unimpressed with the attitude.
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future
I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
More on Chile’s Constitutional referendum vote
The September 4th referendum vote on whether to accept or reject Chile’s new draft
constitution is quickly shaping up to be the key moment in the country’s political year and on
Friday, President Gabriel Boric of Chile couldn’t have said “The Referendum Is In Trouble” if
he’d quoted the latest opinion polls. Here’s Reuters (15):
SANTIAGO, July 15 (Reuters) - Chilean President Gabriel Boric said on Friday that if a
proposed new constitution is rejected in a referendum set for September, a new draft
would have to be written up from scratch instead of modifying the current text.
In an interview with a local television channel, the leftist president said that since
Chile's citizens voted to draft a new constitution in 2020, the process would have to be
carried out again if the current proposal.
"If the plan is rejected, what will happen is that we will have to prolong the process for
another year and a half, where everything will have to be discussed from the
beginning," said Boric, who has avoided speaking of alternatives if voters reject the
proposed text in September.
It doesn’t take a Doctorate in Political Science to recognize a politician in full back-pedal mode
and the latest reliable poll earlier in the week underscores what even Boric acknowledges these
days. Here’s the link (16) to the full poll from Activa/Pulso Ciudadano (1,205 persons surveyed,
MoE +/-2.8%) and here’s one slide of many:
FWIW, the full poll shows plenty more on the growing dissatisfaction with the direction Chile is
taking and the growing unpopularity of its new President and his government), but this example
21

gives us the evolution of voter intention for September 4th and while the red/blue line
divergence is obvious enough, in this poll the devil is in the details. Not only has the “Reject the
New Constitution” vote (red) climbed to 46.3%, versus 28% for those who intend to vote to
accept (blue), but the number of undecided voters (grey) has dropped sharply. We have a new
7.2% who say they will not vote on the day (even though this referendum is compulsory) and
2.9% who say they will spoil their ballot. We mentioned last weekend that the more Chileans
study the draft the less they like it, this poll has quantified that clearly.
According to Boric in his interview on Friday, the Constitutional process would be set back to
zero and start again, running a new 18 month period in order to attempt to write a document
that gains consensus. It was an expected move (though perhaps not this early, with seven
weeks still left on the clock before the vote) and a move by President Boric to keep his right
wing opposition from gaining political capital in the event Chile rejects the draft. He will argue
that Chile has told us it is unhappy with the present Constitution as much as the draft and
something has to be done. Fair enough, but whatever happens the Chilean right is set to make
massive political capital when the Left’s star project, born of the same protests that brought
Boric to power, is shot down in flames. And though it may go without saying, a vote that goes
against the Boric government will also be one that weakens its growing antipathy toward its
mining sector, something we mining investors on the outside should cheer on.
Finally and semi-related to today’s note, this (17) links to a reportage on the reaction on the
streets of Chile to the publication of its draft Constitution. Here’s an excerpt:
“The money's here now," said Alfredo Lopez, a vendor who normally sells fruit on
Santiago's Ahumada thoroughfare.
Lopez sold masks when the pandemic hit and now has a table full of the books and a
hand-made yellow sign touting the text for 3,000 pesos ($3). While Lopez hasn't read
the text and doesn't plan to, the stream of customers is constant and Lopez says he's
been selling 70 to 80 copies a day.
The new constitution, born from anger about stark inequality in one of the region's
richest nations that burst out in fiery protests in 2019, has become a lightning rod for
debate between those who want to protect Chile's market-orientated economic model
that helped drive decades of growth and those seeking a more socially-inclusive ideal.
That's become more intense with rising inflation and a slowing economy, linked to
global fears of a recession and the war in Ukraine driving up food and energy prices.
The price of copper has plummeted and Chile's currency is at an all-time low.
"Conversations heat up quickly, people are really tense," said Isidora Varela, 25, a
communications professional who bought a copy of the constitution on Tuesday,
saying she felt it was her duty to read the text and inform others.
PS: A final update, as today Sunday El Mercurio is carrying a report (18) in which BHP
expresses reservations about further investment in Chile. The ostensible reason is the mining
royalty now presented by the Boric administration to Congress as a law project (see previous
editions and the La Escondida mine would be one of the hardest hit by the new royalty laws),
but it’s also a clear shot across the bows in the growing antagonism between mining FDI and
the Boric government. Here’s a translated excerpt:
“…the multinational said that the modifications in the project now going through
Congress will make the South American country run the highest tax burden compared
to other producer nations such as Australia, Canada and Peru. “We have serious
reservations regarding the new version of the royalty (law). If the royalty proposal
became law, we would have to re-evaluate our investment plans for Chile.”
A LatAm forex update
After last weekend’s quick spin though the LatAm region’s problematic inflation numbers and
the list of countries putting The USA’s inflation rate to shame, today we run the corollary and
mostly due to headlines out of Chile, but similar effects are in other places.
Chile’s Peso (CLP) made international bizwire headlines last week when its forex broke through
the 1,000 level to the USD, peaking at 1,041 before the country’s Central Bank stepped in to
announce a massive propping plan. Compared to Chile’s present level of international reserves
22

of around U$46Bn, the U$25Bn package that starts tomorrow Monday July 18th raised eyebrows
and will have forex traders licking their lips in the weeks to come, as the CLP should strengthen
further. Here’s Reuters on the news (19):
The bank announced a $10 billion sales program on the spot market from July 18 to
Sept. 30 and the sale of foreign exchange hedging instruments for the same amount.
Additionally, to increase the provision of liquidity in dollars, it will offer a currency swap
plan for up to $5 billion, complemented by a liquidity program in pesos.
"These exceptional measures are consistent with the monetary policy scheme, based
on an inflation target and exchange rate flexibility," the statement said.
It’s required too, as the country’s dependency on energy imports means that internal inflation
may have spiralled out of control without such intervention. However and as this chart shows,
the CLP isn’t the only regional currency under pressure.
You may recall that the night of Gustavo Petro’s victory saw the Colombian Peso (COP) jump
from just under 3,900 to the USD to over 4,000, with these pages predicting a COP that would
touch 4,200. It turns out I sold that move short, as the COP last week crested at 4,645 intraday
Wednesday to the USD before the financial bigwigs came out in defence of the currency, with
Friday’s close at 4,349. As for other places, the Brazilian Real continues to weaken in its
crawling peg but the other currency to finally show some weakness in the last month is the
Peruvian Sol (PEN), even as its Central Bank has hiked base rates to 6% and without much
foreign currency debt to service. The recent drop in the PEN is connected to metals, with
copper and gold making up around half of all country exports.
Peru: The knives are out for Pedro Castillo
"Infamy, infamy - they've all got it infamy"
Kenneth Williams as Julius Caesar, Carry on Cleo”
With less than two weeks to go before his first anniversary of taking office, marked by the
traditional (equivalent of a) State of the Nation speech to Congress during Peru’s Independence
Day celebrations on July 28th, it looks as though President Pedro Castillo is going to make it out
of his first political year in office. But the way the sharks are now circling, it’s likely to be his last
and pressure is mounting on all sides, He currently faces:
 Two criminal investigations into potently corrupt dealings (with another now coming to
light, a corrupt businessman has turned State’s Witness and has accused Castillo of
accepting bribes)
 Two constitutional investigations into his acts, either of which could bring a vote of
impeachment
 Continued changes to his ministerial cabinet as Congress shoots down minister after
minister and increasing calls for his Prime Minister to resign
 A Vice-President who is likely to be impeached and deemed unfit for further office due
to her “mistakes”
 High levels of voter rejection for his government
 A backdrop of GDP slowdown and cost inflation, Peru is not immune from world travails
23

A final piece of the puzzle should fit into place in the next ten days, when the next Head of
Congress is chosen. A key role, as any eventual impeachment/resignation/other along with a
barring of his Vice-President means that according to Peru’s constitution, the head of Congress
becomes interim Head of State. Here at The IKN Weekly we’ve been watching this pressure
cooker come to the boil for several months and while the exact circumstances and denouement
is going to be difficult to predict accurately, the general scenario of instability and the world
looking upon yet another South American country having a rough moment, followed by relative
calm and the advent of a more acceptable government from a business, FDI and (above all for
this audience) mining investor standpoint. When the President fall/push moment comes and
voices are raised in protest about a soft Coup E’tat, pay no heed: Aside from the hard left, Peru
is fed up with this guy at the top and he won’t be missed when his time is up. There won’t be
blood in the streets, but the day Castillo falls will be the day to buy Peru exposure.
Market Watching
Dundee Precious Metals (DPM.to) lipsticks its Ecuador pig
One of those notes that fall between “Regional Politics” and “Market Watching”, so it gets stuck
at the top here as ultimately, there should be
little surprise about the ongoing anti-mining
stance taken by local communities in Ecuador
for regular readers. In this case, we are
considering the potential effects on a specific
stock price and while Dundee Precious Metals
(DPM.to) hasn’t been immune to the recent
sectorwide selling (right) there may be
another down-leg in its near future when the
world works out what last week’s news really
means for the company. Two things surprised
me about the DPM.to NR regarding the court
verdict on its Loma Larga (ex-Quimsacocha)
project in Ecuador, as reported by the
company last week:
 The utter chutzpah of the company
 The fact the market didn’t see through the thinly veiled subterfuge
This stock deserved to go lower last week on this news (20) and to explain why, we begin with
contents of the NR. Once pleasantries were done, paragraph one tells us this about the decision
handed down by the courts in the city of Cuenca, the administrative headquarters of the region
where Loma Larga is located:
“The decision upheld the validity of the Company’s environmental permits for
exploration at Loma Larga, confirmed that the MAATE did not violate certain rights
relating to the protection of water and nature in granting the permits, and reaffirmed
DPM’s mining concessions for Loma Larga.”
Sounds good, right? No only that, but the opening sentence of the comment from DPM
President/CEO David Rae was, “This is a positive step forward for the Loma Larga project”,
which was quickly followed by, “As a significant foreign investor in Ecuador, we expect to create
substantial economic and social opportunities through the responsible development of the
project.” What could possibly go wrong? Quite a lot, in fact, as the company was obliged to
mention the real reason for the court case at some point, the matter that had its lawyers and
lawyers representing the government in the Cuenca courtroom and trying all they could to stop
the judge from ruling against the company, but all to no avail. DPM’s take on the main event
was buried in paragraph three in innocuous-sounding language:
The court also found that the Company will be required to include the local indigenous
populations in its consultation process prior to proceeding to the exploitation phase, which DPM
24

had already planned as part of its development of the project, reflecting Company’s
commitment to the highest standards of stakeholder engagement and in-line with International
Finance Corporation practices.
What really happened: The local community has been moving for around tour years to get the
temporary suspension of the Loma Larga project ratified and in all that time, has faced legal
injunctions and all sorts of delaying tactics to stop the case from coming to court. It finally
happened last week and the judge in question had to rule on five points of law. He accepted
only one, namely that the project did not comply with Ecuador’s prior consultancy laws because
the local indigenous population had never been consulted on the project by the company (or
previous owners). That four of the five pleas were turned down did not worry the locals
because, in the words of the ex-Presidential candidate and leader of the regional movement
against mining, Yaku Pérez (21), “…it’s enough that the judge accept just one of the points for
the project to be suspended.” He and his supporter group that attended the court hearing on
Tuesday went on to call the verdict a “Historic triumph” and a major moment in the locality’s 30
year fight against the installation of a mine at Quimsacocha/Loma Larga (a project that was
first in the hands of IAMGOLD (IMG.to) and then small junior and trainwreck INV Metals
(INV.to) before being sold to DPM.to). All parties now await the written legal verdict before the
next stages, which will probably include an appeal to a higher court by DPM. However and
eventually, DPM must now seek permission from a community that is dead set against this
project and as they are set to appeal, they surely know the trouble they are in by now. As for
Yaku Pérez, he had a lot more to say to the press than the company, for example (22):
“It was worth the more than three decades of struggle. 150 people were criminalized by
the Correa government (during the protests), we had four people jailed, we were
beaten up”, he said.
He compared the judicial process to a David versus Goliath fight. “The community
faced the united forces of the Chamber of Mining, the Cuenca Chamber of Industry,
The Chambers of Industry and Commerce from (Ecuador’s capital city) Quito, The
National Chamber of Mining, The Ministries of the Environment, of Finances and of
Energy and lawyers from the Presidency who acted as third party representatives
against the will of the people.”
To be clear and no matter what DPM might say to the wider world, there’s a snowball’s chance
in Hell of this project gaining the required social licence from any prior consultancy process and
appeals court success notwithstanding, has probably killed Loma Larga as a viable development
project, something you’d never have guessed from the tone of the company NR last week.
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v) gets support from Atacama
In last week’s main event note “Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v): Picking up the pieces of a broken story”, we
examined several aspects of and the background to the July 5th decision by the relevant
committee of the Atacama regional government to refuse Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v) the EIA permit for its
Fenix gold project, in the eponymous region of Chile. We noted a queue of environmental
activists ready to slate the project using hyperbolic language (e.g, their attempt to convince
people that RIO.v admits its plan would bring brutality down local fauna), but we also noted the
company had support, our example being the President of the local chamber of business
investment, the “Corporación para el Desarrollo de la Región de Atacama (CORPROA).”
Here are the translated words of Juan José Ronsecco as reported last weekend:
“This is another blow for the Atacama economy, these types of measures only scares
away investment opportunities in the region.”
And…
“This measure is against what we want to support as a government, we are already
losing investment opportunities for the Atacama region. It cannot be explained how
President Gabriel Boric, who just days ago was in Cananda and inviting its business
community to invest in Chile while here they do the contrary and close the doors on
this excellent project, which also happens to be Canadian. I wonder whether or not we
want growth and development in Atacama. It’s certainly a mystery and will be
evermore difficult to answer if we continue to reject these large-scale projects.”
25

On Monday we got more from CORPROA President Ronsecco in this op-ed (23) entitled,
“Regarding the rejection of Fenix Gold: “Are we working well?” (with the exact title using
“¿Estamos hacienda bien la pega?”, using a Chilean colloquialism for work that makes a down-
to-earth point that my translation misses). Instead of excerpting, here’s a translation of Señor
Ronsecco’s complete op-ed and before diving in, please note that due to his use of rather
formal Spanish I’ve decided to keep the same sort of “stiff sounding language” in my
translation, so if you find yourself reading back a line or two, it wouldn’t surprise. And as a final
note, I’ve underlined the most important part of the note:
“Regarding the rejection of Fenix Gold: “Are we working well?”
By Juan Ronsecco Pinto, president of Corproa
The view offered Atacama’s Regional Governor, Miguel Vargas regarding process of
evaluation of environmental impact and now the consequence, of the decision by the
Environmental Evaluation Committee to reject the Fenix Gold project, is both important
and interesting. The Governor asked “Are we working well?” and in response the
Presidential Delegate replied, “We must take into account that anything is possible, as
long as it’s done well.” This is exactly the mentality that we need, but it means doing
good work from both sides. This is how interest in Atacama can be re-opened.
In my opinion, I understand this viewpoint from outside of a political position. In fact
it’s quite the contrary, because it points to what the Atacama Region really needs to
improve its employment indices and stop depending only on the State.
A State which, in recent times, has only generated short-term projects that do not
make a positive impact in regional employment and, at the end of the day, are nothing
but band-aids that do not deliver the desired stability.
At this time we don’t need short-term measures, we need stable, long-term projects
that are attractive and, most important of all, that materialize. This would bring a
chain reaction as the regional private companies on seeing investment would be
motivated to mobilize resources, which as a result would mean better cities with
friendlier characteristics as for example what happens in the neighbouring region of
Antofagasta and the impressive growth of its capital city in the last 20 years.
I believe it to be a good path for the government to align itself with the posture taken
by the Governor of Atacama. I also believe that we must revise who controls the
decisions made by the Environmental Commission, that should be made by impartial
professional who understand what it means to live through a lack of investment and
that do not feel pressure from the Central Government when making their decisions.
At the same time, we need to understand the position of investors when making
decisions, we must use and manage these definitions so hat they do not affect or
demoralize investment. By this, I am not saying that we should work outside the laws
and rules of the country. On the contrary, what I propose is that we create guidelines,
that we help achieve results from our position as a country, rather than confronting or
seeing ourselves as enemies or even as a threat.
Investment is necessary and we need it, we must seek mechanisms to make it our
partner so that investment capital considers (Atacama) attractive, as investors want a
clear framework and long-term partnerships and will avoid putting their investment
capital and shareholders at risk.
There is a business community that wants to do things the right way, to achieve the
mechanisms of consensus so that this happens and also put right things that didn’t
happen in the past. All this takes time and as I’ve said in previous declarations, we
cannot stay with the stigmas of the past and should look to the future. Atacama
deserves this.
IKN687 back and while this type of business oriented support is welcome, it’s also clear that the
author is picking his words carefully in order to make a diplomatic and politically correct point to
the new government and its local allies, rather than declaring outright war on the lefties and
their anti-mining schemes. The diplomatic approach is a first stage and in this, CORPROA has
set its stall out as supporting Rio2 but isn’t closing the doors to anyone. However, here we have
the type of right-wing pro-business and pro-mining position that raises its voice more clearly
26

when support starts to drain for the new government. Once again, we point your eyes toward
the September 4th referendum because after that, the balance of political power is likely to
change significantly and when it does, Rio2 has allies in place for its re-worked plan.
Aris Gold (ARIS.to) is an obvious short
Though it’s been mentioned on these pages previously, recent newsflow from Aris Gold
(ARIS.to) points to a company that has made the wrong expansion move at the wrong time.
The issue is Soto Norte and with ARIS having already committed U$100m to a project that is
set to go nowhere and be blocked by the incoming Petro administration (see IKN686 last
weekend), its current market cap of C$220.5m (C$1.60 x 137.8m) or U$168.1m using its US
OTC listed ticker (U$1.22) looks over-extended even after the weakness seen in the stock over
the last week.
In fact the ARIS share price is only down 10.6% since the market day after Gustavo Petro was
declared winner of the run-off for President of Colombia, the selling on the first day of the
Colombia’s President-Elect dropped ARIS stock to C$1.79, compared to its C$1.60 of today.
What’s more, on a 2022 YTD basis ARIS has got to this weekend all-but unchanged. This chart,
which compares three larger-sized Colombia mining trades and the GDXJ ETF as benchmark,
also shows how Collective Mining (CNL.to) has missed most of the sell-off but the sister
company to ARIS, GCM Mining (GCM.to) has had a rougher time of it all.
While CNL isn’t a widely traded stock and is more difficult to trade, ARIS goes through periods
of good volume and also has plenty of market presence.
Aside form the fact that Petro is vociferously anti-mining and will try to stop any large-scale
operation from progressing (while favouring traditional small-scale mining) the most pressing
problem at ARIS is Soto Norte, its expansion project announced in March. In the deal, ARIS is
paying the owner of Soto Norte (Minesa, owned by Dubai’s Mubadala) U$100m cash in two
U$50m tranches (one paid, the other due next year) for 20% of the property as well as
operator status and the option to buy in to 50% of the project at a later date. Which would
have been okay if Gustavo Petro has lost the 2022 Presidential election but as we reported last
week, his incoming team have that exact project on its hit list. Here’s a re-print of the
translation of the news story we ran last weekend, quoting the incoming Minister of
Environment and Sustainable Development, María Susana Muhamad González:
Santurbán
Regarding the mining projects in the Santurbán Páramo, the new head of the Ministry
of the Environment said that, under the logic of climate change and to order territories
giving precedence to water, there will have to be studies on the complexity of the
Páramo ecosystem in order to generate measures that protect its water production
capacity for Santander.
“It’s illogical to advance an operation of the size that Minesa proposes in order to
extract gold from an ecosystem, limited to where (mining) takes place if the limits are
raised or lowered by by a few metres, without seeing how said ecosystem works in a
27

complete way, one that also supports the high Andean forest”, said Muhamad.
She also mentioned that the situation faced by towns and municipalities with
artisan/small scale mining is different and with those groups, agreements are needed
on work and measures for that activity “but new operations and especially those of the
magnitude of Minesa are not viable in a (political) program that looks to organize the
region around the question of water.”
So far this news hasn’t made much impact in the larger mining world, but it will once Gustavo
Petro is inaugurated on August 7th and his news government starts rolling out its policies. And it
leaves ARIS in a bit of a pickle, as it has recently added plenty of debt to its balance sheet as
well as committed its U$50m payments for Soto Norte. Here’s the ARIS balance sheet from
1q22, its last reported date:
There are plenty of changes coming up on that sheet:
1) U$50m of the cash in escrow is now with its new owner, Mubadala. That $50m is half
the money ARIS paid in exchange for the 20% ownership and operator status it
awarded to ARIS for the Soto Norte project, with the second $50m due paid in April
2023.
2) ARIS has added $65m to its stream with Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) in order to
pay for its capex at the Lower Marmato mine.
3) ARIS has borrowed $35m from sister company GCM via a convertible debt facility
(strike C$2.21) at 7.5% interest.
In other words, when the next balance sheet shows up we expect ARIS to have added a cool
$100m to its liabilities. Assets will rise as the cash arrives from the loans and ARIS will be able
to add its new 20% holding of Soto Norte to the fixed assets on its balance sheet (presumably
$100m, quid pro quo for the cash), but once projects and payments are backed out, ARIS
becomes fixed-asset rich and liquidity drops sharply, with perhaps $35m in liquidity.
To its credit, ARIS has mining operations (upper Marmato) so we need to consider the cash
flow and profit that operation brings so here’s a summary table from the 1q22 MD&A:
28

The operation is set to produce between 40k and 45k oz gold this year and the company ARIS
guides for stronger production in the second half of 2022. To quote the MD&A, “In Q1 2022,
the Upper Mine generated $3.4 million free cash flow out of the targeted $20 million for the
year, which will be allocated to the Lower Mine expansion.” This implies the current Q2 will be
equivalent to Q1 and being a relatively high cash cost operation, the margins aren’t big enough
to support a company with that much debt to service. It has bet on growth and on getting good
news, so when Colombia’s government stops (or “suspends for further study”) its new flagship
operation in which it has recently sunk U$100m in cash, the weakness will show.
I’ve scratched my head about ARIS, wondering just why it hasn’t dropped in the same way as
GCM or most other junior in recent times. It may be because of the all-star cast running the
company, headed as it is by Ian Telfer and backed by Frank Giustra and his gang. It may also
be due to the way the stock gets constant promotion on the Stansberry Research investment
platform, but at some point the vastly increased risk of working in Colombia now that Petro is
about to become President, plus the fact that its new flagship project has been specifically
targeted by Petro’s incoming Environment Minister, is bound to weigh on the stock price.
Goldshore Resources (GSHR.v): Marking a potential future trade
However, this Market Watching section isn’t all gloom and doom and we finish this edition with
two possible trade ideas. The first is Goldshore Resources (GSHR.v), a company I’ve been
watching since its IPO just over a year ago. It IPO’d after being hyped to retail after papering
up a lot of insiders with cheap stock and
became an instant baghold for anyone who
took the “red hot recommendation” to buy
stock from Canada’s paid promoter crew (oh
such pleasant people). Here’s a chart of GSHR
since inception and another feature of the
company price action is the occasional spike
along the way, as new rounds of breathless
promotion on the back of drill results and
general marketing noise was created around
the company (above right). As you can see,
GSHR has come a long way, and that means a
long way down. In fact, even if you were the
last of the retail buyers to jump in on the very
last promo push in April, one spearheaded by
the Casey Research ‘International Speculator’
publication, you’d be close to 50% down on
your money this weekend (below right).
Now, before this sounds all holier than thou and
I start coming across as the writer who never
picks a loser, let’s bring in some perspective.
For sure it’s been a tough market for us all and
I’m fully aware of the amount of red ink in the
current IKN Weekly Stocks to Follow list.
29

However, it’s one thing to get caught in a sector wide sell-off and another to buy into what has
been from its inception a paper machine for the chosen few. Avoiding GSHR in its first year of
existence was easy, a “known risk” that was set up as a way to exchange very cheap paper for
somebody else’s money (and I hope that wasn’t you). But despite its…errr…notable
shortcomings as an early buy, as noted above it’s also a stock I’ve kept an eye on because like
all decent sales pitches, at the centre of the story there’s something of true worth. Its Moss
Lake property is worth caring about because it’s large, in a great address and as GSHR has
shown, has enormous expansion potential. Until recently, the company was on track to drill a
cool 100,00m in its 2022 program and while that plan has now changed, it still gives an idea of
the scales involved and what they may be able to outline as a total gold resource.
It also has a clearly defined resource of 3m oz under PEA and a total of 4m if you include its
satellite deposits. This excerpt from its recent corporate presentation shows how the 2020 PEA
outlined a 10 year mine on the main 3m oz deposit and while those cost parameters are now
surely out of date, the overall plan will also benefit as GSGHR drills out expansion zones in
order to grow the resource (there’s every reason to expect another 10m+ oz monster Canadian
open pit resource here):
Until recently GSHR was aiming to put those 100km into Moss Lake and environs in order to
deliver a new resource and then an updated PEA around this time next year. However in its
latest NR, those plans changed (24):
Goldshore has decided to temporarily scale back its drilling program from 7 rigs to 2
rigs in an effort to preserve capital in this uncertain and volatile capital market
environment. The Company has also evaluated all possible cost containment and cost
control measures to assist in this regard, and are reducing costs wherever possible.
This decision to slow drilling production may affect Goldshore’s ability to complete its
planned 100,000m drill program in 2022, as previously planned, but does not change
the strategy or management’s view on the Moss Lake Project. The Company will
continue to monitor all market conditions, as well as its ability to execute on its
objectives going forward.
It’s this decision, plus the latest round of interviews done by GSHR CEO Brett Richards, that
turned my latent curiosity in GSHR into something firmer. In late June he pre-empted the news
of the drill rig cutback by signalling the company would be cutting back on its 2022 plans in
order to preserve capital and also acknowledged that the market wasn’t going to be interested
in “big capex projects that are subject to inflationary capex costs” (quote/unquote). However,
this isn’t a company that’s in build-out stage like Argonaut (AER.to) at Magino, nor is it one with
an advanced, drilled out project with a 10m+oz resource such as Moneta Gold (ME.to). Even
under the best of circumstances, GSHR would deliver a resource update to market by the end
of 2022 and then an updated PEA at some point in 1q23 or 2q23, we’re certainly a long way
from any build decision. CEO Richards also started talking up ideas for a lower tonnage starter
pit project that would concentrate on one smaller corner of the large Moss Lake property, most
likely one with higher grade, in order to get started in mining with a lower capex hurdle.
30

That is dumb strategy. The way he and his team suddenly changed tune shows the pressure
that the recent market downturn has afforded and they started casting around trying to “do
something” to stop the share price fracture but instead, the messaging only made things worse.
What Goldshore has isn’t going to change, ever. Project all the starter pits you want, but the
reason for this project is to outline as many economic gold ounces in a safe jurisdiction as
possible. We know “small and cheap” doesn’t work in this neck of the woods (look at Cartier
Resources) and if you can’t offer a high grade underground mine the only attraction in town a
large, low grade open-pitter, the next Malartic. These deposits may have suddenly gone out of
fashion due to the crimping of inflation on one side and gold prices on the other, but you
cannot plan a trade on this type of project with a six month view. However, that’s what CEO
Brett Richards suddenly wants to do as he sees his cash pile dwindle and thinks how bad that
next dilutive financing is going to be.
Moss Lake is an open pit gold mining project and whatever the fashion might be in mid-2022,
that won’t change. It will also have a permanent address advantage, another fact lost on recent
sellers and management alike. With geopolitical risk rising for mining companies around the
world (and LatAm a prime example, unfortunately), Moss Lake’s natural advantage of being
located not just in Canada, but a traditional mining area of the miner-friendly country should
not be underestimated but that’s what this team has done. The company’s task should be to
assemble as large a gold resource as possible and then perhaps take a leaf out of the books
written by companies such as NovaGold (NG) and ignore the rest of the world and market the
company as an in-situ asset of grand proportions. Instead, by throttling back on its aggressive
2022 drill campaign GSHR telegraphed to the world that it wants to preserve capital for longer
than the six months it would have taken to burn through its current cash treasury of $16m. By
limiting its drill campaign, it will now be able to get into 2023 and you never know, cut overall
burn to as little as $3m and there’s the chance of limping into 2024, but at the same time the
mixed message it recently sent saw early backers realize their losses. They moved on, GSHR
caught the full blast of the recent downturn and that’s where we come in.
With a current share count of 143.8m and a stock price this weekend of C$0.265, GSHR runs a
market cap of C$38.1m, or U$30.5m using our standard house forex. For that money you get
the current 4m oz of resource and while we can’t credit the C$16m in treasury it has because it
will get burned away, there are a lot of extra ounces being added to the current resource via
the drillbit in 2022 (those seven rigs have run for three quarters and even the two rigs left on
will help the cause). It has location, a high profile as projects go and what’s more, there are a
whole bunch of promoters feeling the heat for having guided their people into this loser to date,
so when the turn comes (and it will), GSGHR is bound to get a lot of support to move it higher
(or the “if you liked it at 70c you’ll love it at 20c!!!” variety, multiple exclamations de rigueur).
These are the stocks that you buy and forget about, then come back when they’ve doubled or
tripled as the market lifts them higher. I’m not a buyer yet and I don’t think you should be
either, not for the moment, but as from next weekend GSHR will form part of the new
“Watchlist” section of the Stocks to Follow list in order to track its progress (or further decline).
When the market turns, this will too.
Anacortes Mining Corp (XYZ.v) update
To wrap up this week, we fly into the face of all sentiment. Even under the best of market
circumstances it’s a risky game to trade rumours that
swirl around a drill play and let’s be clear, the current
market is far from the best of circumstances. However
Anacortes Mining Corp (XYZ.v), the company we’ve
featured over the last few weeks currently drilling the
Tres Cruces project in La Libertad, Peru, has a ten day
chart that bucks trends (above). Volume and trade
action on Friday was slight, but earlier in the week this
desk picked up on a rumour of positive assays coming
for the first round of drill assays (those results due
soon), as well as visually similar mineralization coming
31

from the latest holes that should return lab assays in a second phase in the few weeks’ time.
We need to underscore the thinnish volumes (48k Weds, 65k Thurs and just 10k traded on
Friday) and the risky nature of second-guessing drill assays, but the fact remains that XYZ rose
by 10% over the last two days of last week and in those same 48 hours, GDXJ dropped by 5%.
Let’s see what the newswires bring.
Conclusion
IKN687 is done, we end with some bullet points:
 I spent three days doing non-work things last week, which is my best excuse as to why
the blog was so quiet. I plan to do the same again this week so if posting doesn’t pick
up again, you know why.
 I’m looking forward to seeing the numbers out of Superior Gold (SGI.v) as poor market
for gold or not, it’s a company ready to deliver on a well-worked plan.
 Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) continues to deliver and as long as it maintains its 3c/qtr
dividend, there’s a lot of value in this stock. However, they need to stay away from
even thinking about cutting the divi unless market conditions stay bad for an extended
period. I wouldn’t want them to blow their last $5m in cash on a payment, but until
they get to $10m in working cap they can afford to maintain the program and show the
company as truly shareholder-friendly.
 The Rio2 decision still hurts.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stock is Minera Alamos (MAI.v). Flash
updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best wishes, Mark
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/07/schedule-for-week-of-july-17-2022.html
(2) https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/early-read-on-existing-home-sales
(3) http://www.amerigoresources.com/_resources/news/nr_20220712.pdf
(4) https://apnmetals.com/news/altiplano-reports-on-advance-of-underground-mining-operations-at-farellon/
(5) https://www.rio2.com/post/rio2-provides-eia-plan-update
(6) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-15/copper-selloff-deepens-drops-below-7-000-first-time-since-
2020
(7) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-12/goldman-cuts-copper-outlook-as-energy-crisis-threatens-
demand#xj4y7vzkg
(8) https://orocoresourcecorp.com/news/oroco-drilling-extends-north-zone-strike-length
(9) https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stronger-q2-barrick-underpins-delivery-110000558.html
(10) https://events.q4inc.com/attendee/715196742
(11) https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-fields-provides-market-proposed-071500176.html
(12) https://www.businesslive.co.za/fm/features/cover-story/2022-07-14-inside-griffiths-great-gold-gamble/
(13) https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-gold-fields-plans-toronto-073119326.html
(14) https://kingfishermetals.com/kingfisher-reports-highly-anomalous-pxrf-results-from-rab-drilling-at-day-trip-zone-
goldrange-project/
32

(15) https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/boric-says-chile-should-draft-new-constitution-if-current-proposal-fails-
2022-07-15/
(16)
https://www.pauta.cl/pauta/site/docs/20220711/20220711114554/220870_pulso_ciudadano__julio_q1__0710_v1.pdf
(17) https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/divisive-bestseller-copies-chiles-new-constitution-hit-streets-2022-07-15/
(18) https://www.larepublica.co/globoeconomia/bhp-revaluaria-inversiones-de-aprobarse-propuesta-de-gobierno-
chileno-sobre-royalty-3405641
(19) https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/chile-central-bank-announces-25-billion-intervention-amid-usd-advance-2022-
07-15/
(20) https://www.dundeeprecious.com/English/Corporate-News/press-release-details/2022/Dundee-Precious-Metals-
Provides-Update-on-Constitutional-Protective-Action-in-Ecuador/default.aspx
(21) https://www.primicias.ec/noticias/economia/mineria-juez-suspende-loma-larga-falta-consulta-previa/
(22) https://www.elcomercio.com/actualidad/cuenca/juez-suspension-actividades-mineras-quimsacocha.html
(23) https://revistacrisol.cl/ante-el-rechazo-de-fenix-gold-estamos-haciendo-bien-la-pega/
(24) https://goldshoreresources.com/goldshore-resources-announces-option-agreement-to-earn-in-to-iris-lake-
vanguard-properties-held-by-white-metal-resources-corp/
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Set-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Abr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
33

Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Ago-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Set-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Ene-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Set-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Ene-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Set-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Ago-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Abr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Set-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Abr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Set-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
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Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-ago-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-ene-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-abr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-abr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-ene-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-ene-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-abr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-abr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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