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The IKN Weekly
Week 681, June 5th 2022
Contents
This Week: In Today’s edition, Doves Aren’t Real.
Fundamental Analysis: Mene Inc (MENE.v), Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v), Minera Alamos (MAI.v), QC
Copper & Gold (QCCU.v), Electra Battery (ELBM.v), Newcore Gold (NCAU.v), Amerigo(ARG.to).
Stocks to Follow: Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v), Minera Alamos (MAI.v), Electra Battery Materials
(ELBM.v), Discovery Silver (DSV.v), Newcore Gold (NCAU.v), Amerigo Resources (ARG.to),
Chesapeake Gold (CKG.v), Palamina Corp (PA.v).
Copper Basket: Overview, C3 Metals (CCCM.v), Copper Mountain (CMMC.to), Meridian
(MNO.to).
Producer Basket: Overview, Gold Fields (GFI).
TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Aurelius (AUL.v), Signature (SGU.v).
Regional Politics: The Colombia Presidential run-off: Reasons to be concerned, A webinar by
Chile’s mining sector on Chile’s mining sector, Previewing The Ninth Summit of the Americas,
Argentina: Low demand for its balls of steel.
Market Watching: A Wednesday muse on portfolio management, Discovery Silver (DSV.v)
hosts a site visit, A new TSX index.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
In Today’s Edition
 Copper’s big move last week stole the show and lifted the rest of the metals complex
and today’s Copper Basket is a reflection on how the metal’s rebound failed to carry
through to the junior stocks. That’s the current market nerves in action, but as long as
the rebound sticks in the days ahead this sub-sector should play catch up.
 Also and just above the Copper Basket in Stocks to Follow notes, a brief but sharp
table-bang on Amerigo Resources (ARG.to), in your author’s opinion the best way to
play the copper market today. An absolute cash cow with copper where it is and with
highly shareholder-friendly corporate policies in place. While copper remains with a 4-
handle, any price under $2.00 is a bargain.
 Top Pick Minera Alamos (MAI.v) is also your author’s largest mining stock position, so
today’s main fundies section is as much about keeping me onside and in the trade as
any of you. It’s nearly all good news however, so “happy holder” continues.
 Colombia’s presidential election run-off is adding extra uncertainty to an already volatile
and difficult scenario for mining stocks. We spend most of today’s Regional Politics
section pulling apart what we know with just two weeks before the run-off vote
between hard lefty Petro and “Colombia’s Trump”, Hernández.
 I only have one thing to say about the GFI/AUY merger deal; the unfair reception GFI
got for its efforts is exactly why there’s no M&A going on. Market hate kills deals.
1

Doves Aren’t Real
Last week’s intro titles, ‘Birds Aren’t Real” got a couple of “Eh? What?” comments in the mailbox
and yes, fair point. It started as a working title and they usually change along the way, so in
the final piece it might have been slightly recherché to reference a (quite wonderful parody
conspiracy theory (1) while talking about capital market naiveté. But it worked for me, so I left
it in. However, this weekend’s title line makes more sense. Last weekend we noted the “high-
traffic mining thought telling the public that the Fed wouldn’t prosecute on its threats of sharp
rate increases” and wondered just why they’d decided to fight the Fed and its loudly trumpeted
plans for the near future. And by the time the week was done and we’d received the BLS data,
the Federal Reserve jawbone was in full flight (2):
U.S. stocks slid Friday to close the week lower as investors weighed May jobs data
that likely gave Fed policymakers a signal labor market conditions can weather a more
aggressive rate hiking cycle.
Good news for the politicos, they can talk up the jobs market. But the hallmark of a bear
market is when good data causes equities to drop and that’s what we got on Friday, a dose of
real news for the dreamers. The chosen report then gave a few market details:
Friday's sell-off was led by tech stocks, with the Nasdaq Composite falling 2.5%. The
S&P 500 fell 1.6%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 350 points, or 1%.
Treasury yields rose following Friday's jobs data, with the yield on 10-year Treasury
jumping as much as 7 basis points to just below 3%, before retreating to finish the
week at 2.96%.
There were plenty of options, but I chose this report due to its 100% down-the-line classic
bizwire cookie cutter format. It continues in time-honoured style by quoting the expert:
The Labor Department’s latest monthly employment report published Friday morning
showed 390,000 jobs were added to the U.S. economy in May, with the unemployment
rate holding steady at 3.6%. Economists had expected job gains to total 318,000 with
the unemployment rate falling to 3.5%, per Bloomberg consensus data.
Although job growth slowed from April, the labor market remains tight, suggesting the
Federal Reserve may proceed with tightening monetary conditions further by raising
interest rates — a point of worry for investors who fear central bank policies may tip the
economy into a recession.
"Overall, it seems like the job creation machine runs on full-steam and anecdotal
evidence has it that hiring remains difficult for businesses of all sizes as demand
outpaces supply," Christian Scherrmann, DWS’ U.S. Economist said in a note.
"Looking ahead, the Fed is most likely to feel reassured that it has struck the right
balance lately," Scherrmann added. "That, in turn, means it is likely to stick to its
aggressive monetary normalization path."
And to make it clear, the jawbone finishes the piece off nicely:
Furthermore, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester indicated in
an interview with CNBC Friday that she supports half point hikes at the next two policy-
setting meetings in June and July, and more in autumn if prices don't cool. Investors
had previously hoped for a pause after the summer months.
“I’m going to come into the September meeting, if I don’t see compelling evidence [that
inflation is cooling], I could easily be at 50 basis points in that meeting as well,” she
said.
Birds may or may not be real but in today’s market, doves are an illusion. The Hawks are in full
control, there’s no room left for dovish opinion on what the Fed is about to do to the US macro,
so stop listening to those who’ll tell you otherwise. We are about to get 50 points, then 50
points, then likely 50 points before we step back to “mere” 25bps rises that take us to 3.5% or
so. That circuit starts soon, as time next weekend the world will be previewing the 50bps raise
in June’s FOMC, with conjecture on the language accompanying the move (we remind readers
that “dot plot” is on desk this time around) but before even that, the US Consumer Price
Inflation (CPI) reading on Friday June 10th will keep inflation talk front and centre.
2

As for gold, the foundation metal took the week’s turmoil generally in stride and while the
nominal price dropped slightly (GLD was down 1.6%) the underlying sentiment remained at
uninteresting levels, though we’ve moved way from the washout mood of Q1. That’s a
reasonable performance to date and speaks of a market that believes real interest rates will
remain negative even as the fed hikes sharply, which means Mr. Market firmly believes inflation
is running hot. Therefore, Friday’s CPI will offer a trading moment for the monetary metal
which, at this time, revolves around the consensus forecast of +0.7% CPI for the month of
May. If it comes in hotter than that, expect gold to rally.
GLD: Inventory/Price Ratio, 2022 year to date
6.60
6.50
6.40
6.30
6.20
6.10
6.00
5.90
5.80
5.70
5.60
5.50
5.40
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Minera Alamos (MAI.v) 1q22 financials and news
On Monday May 30th, our Top Pick and your author’s largest single position, Minera Alamos
(MAI.v), reported its 1q22 financials, in which we got the first glimpse of its operational cash
flows even while we await the formal declaration of commercial production. The 1q22 numbers
were accompanied by a NR the next morning (3) giving details on the current state of affairs at
the company and with all the new information, I’m suitably happy with the way things are going
at the company, despite its slower than expected ramp-up at Santana.
We begin with a check of the main points in the1q22 financials, starting with the sheet that
carries through (nearly) unchanged from its exploreco reporting days. That’s the balance sheet
and we begin with the usual suspect charts:
There’s a development in the assets chart, as the new rules determine that MAI separate
inventory from its fixed assets. This brings inventories into the current asset part of the table
for the first time and for weird reasons, the rule is retroactive so that the 4q21 numbers have
changed, too. The result is what you see, a new line item that makes hardly any difference to
the totals, but is cut and sliced in a different and more accurate way. See below for the exact
inventory numbers and the copypasted FS table (used to consider production totals to date).
3
13/21/1202 5/1/2202 01/1/2202 51/1/2202 02/1/2202 52/1/2202 03/1/2202 4/2/2202 9/2/2202 41/2/2202 91/2/2202 42/2/2202 1/3/2202 6/3/2202 11/3/2202 61/3/2202 12/3/2202 62/3/2202 13/3/2202 5/4/2202 01/4/2202 51/4/2202 02/4/2202 52/4/2202 03/4/2202 5/5/2202 01/5/2202 51/5/2202 02/5/2202 52/5/2202 03/5/2202
GLD gold holdings, 2022 year to date (metric tonnes)
1140
1120
1100
1080
1060
1040
1020
1000
980
960 Source: SPDR data, IKN calcs
940
920
900
12/21/13 22/1/5 22/1/01 22/1/51 22/1/02 22/1/52 22/1/03 22/2/4 22/2/9 22/2/41 22/2/91 22/2/42 22/3/1 22/3/6 22/3/11 22/3/61 22/3/12 22/3/62 22/3/13 22/4/5 22/4/01 22/4/51 22/4/02 22/4/52 22/4/03 22/5/5 22/5/01 22/5/51 22/5/02 22/5/52 22/5/03
mt
source: SPDR GLD data
MAI.v: Assets
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
61q4 71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 tse22q2
$m MAI.v: Liabilities per qtr
10
9
inventories 8
fixed other current 7
cash 6
5
4
3
2
1
0
source: company filings
61q4 71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 tse22q2
source: company filings
srallod
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snoillim
LT liabs
current liabs

However and within reason, the main 1q22 numbers were in good shape and the only slight
issue I could pick on is the cash treasury, down to C$6.107m when the model expected $7m.
That’s not a difficult fix and the inventory improvement (which shows in the improved working
capital position means MAI can sell wares to replenish treasury if required (plus since quarter
end, they’ve cash in the last of the Prime Mining shares and did so at a good price). Money isn’t
tight and there’s zero reason to expect it to become so, but MAI also agreed to a U$3m
backstop facility with Ocean Partners as a form of liquidity insurance. However, that’s as much
about partnership building as anything else (and let’s recall, after his big win with Great Bear,
company President Doug Ramshaw could always “do a Rob McEwen”, stop buying shares and
loan his company some tide-over money of the same size, but he isn’t into that kind of self-
serving line of thinking).
MAI.v: Cash treasury per qtr
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
The other place we see a change in the filings is
with the capital allocation chart, which saw
inventories backed out of the figures for 3q21,
4q21 and not counted in the 1q22 numbers. Still,
construction in progress rose by $570k in the
three months of 1q22 and that’s almost certainly
the roadways put in to open the Nicho Main Zone
(more on that below)
Enough boring balance sheet stuff, we now move
to real news and the first time MAI has reported
production and sales in any detail. We’re still in
pre-commercial days so not all the information is
out there and there’s a certain amount of educated guessing required from this desk, but as
these are still the early days of what we fully expect to be a growing success story, “ballpark
correct” will be fine for our purposes. We start by getting as close to physical production
numbers as possible. There’s less detail on actual sales, instead we consider what we know
about production and, according to the 1q22 MD&A, we’ve had these production intervals:
 During 4q21: 401 oz gold
 January 2022: 890 oz gold
 February 2022: 1,130 oz gold
 March 2022: 1,350 oz gold
That adds up to 3,791 oz gold. We can then factor in the inventory changes of finished metal at
MAI, which stood at C$1.004m as at December 31st and C$1,352m as at March 31st.
4
61q4 71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 tse22q2
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
28 MAI.v: Working Capital per qtr
26
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
61q4 71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 tse22q2
source company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
MAI.v: Fixed asset carry
12.0
11.0
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1
C$m
Mining equipment
Construction in progress
source: company filings

With gold held in inventory at cost, and a best guess of C$1,500/oz as that number, that would
mean 670oz and 235oz = 905oz held as inventory. The final piece of the production puzzle is
found in the May 31st NR, which tells us “Gold mined and stacked on the leach pad to date
totals approximately 18,000 oz with roughly 7,000 oz of gold recovered in concentrate.”
If we take that “roughly” as exact, as at May 31st (i.e. 2/3rd the way through 2q22) and as long
as my inventory cost number is close, we have 7,000 oz of gold in conc with 4,676 of those
ounces accounted for in previous declarations. That leaves 2,324oz, which must have been
produced in the last two months of April and May and that makes sense, as it matches the
rhythm of production seen in February and March. It also jives with the company’s own
declaration of now running at breakeven as a corporation and also correlates with the
announcement last week on the lack of regional rainfall that has apparently crimped production
in the last few weeks. Here’s what MAI told us about that in last week’s NR:
Operations in May have been seasonally impacted from the severe and ongoing
drought that has affected Sonora for much of the last two years. Typical rainfall in the
region from January to June is in the range of 120-150 mm. However, in 2021 this
totalled 45 mm and in the current year less than 2 mm has accumulated to date forcing
the Company to locate additional local sources of water to support operations. The
upcoming rainy season (late June-September) is expected to recharge water
reservoirs and allow for an acceleration of the recovery of gold stacked on the leach
pads in Q3.
The inference is that rains have curtailed the progressive growth of pre-commercial production,
so our rough calculations of April and May gold production as similar to February and March
works with the scenario. It also means production won’t increase until those the rains arrive
and, of all the information contained in last week’s literature out of MAI, this was the only
concern that jumped out. Admittedly it’s no deal-breaker and “some rainfall” is bound to
happen, but the question of how much (and whether early or later in the season) is a potential
bottleneck. On consulting with MAI President Doug Ramshaw, I learned that the company
wasn’t particularly concerned and is clearly in the right position to get through any slight delay
to its ramp-up plans from a lack of water. I asked whether the decision to take out a (quote)
“modest US$3 million unsecured working capital facility with Ocean Partners USA Inc.” also
announced by MAI last week was connected to this, but apparently not. That’s more to do with
lag between mining/producing gold and getting the proceeds cheque and one of those things
that might, and only might, cause a strain on cash flow. In President Ramshaw’s words, it “just
felt prudent to have a small facility in place” and that’s fair enough, particularly as they are
currently deploying capital to develop the next stage at Santana. Here comes another quote:
The development of the Nicho Main Zone (“NMZ”) is now underway with haulage and
access roads largely completed along with the removal of limited vegetation and
surface cover. Following the initiation of mining activities and as the pit working areas
opens up, the much larger scale of the NMZ compared to the current starter pit at
Nicho Norte will help drive project mining rates to planned levels for the overall
commercial operation. First mineralized material from the NMZ should be stacked on
the Santana leach pad as operations move into the second half of the year and will
help drive gold production rates higher.
The CEO comments on this called the start of NMZ access and mining “a significant and positive
development and the final major milestone in the ramp-up of operations at Santana”, with CEO
Darren Koningen comments finishing by saying the opening on NMZ will allow “the Company to
ultimately exit the project’s pre-commercial phase of production.” That’s enough direct quoting
for one day, because we now know enough to see the big picture:
 1q22 production and sales were enough to put MAI close to breakeven
 2q22 production and sales mean MAI is now breakeven
 Taking the rainfall and NMZ news together, all roads lead to a ramp up of throughput,
production, sales and that elusive declaration of commercial production in 3q22
I’m fine with that and, as this is the main message from the 1q22 numbers, things are good.
5

Now a look at sales in dollar terms and, as we only have one quarter of “real” P+L data so far,
tracking charts are for another day. Here’s a copypaste of the filing page with scribbles on it:
Revenues at the top for 1q22 came in at C$5.16m, which means MAI didn’t get near to selling
all 3,791oz of gold production, as the received average would have only been C$1,361/oz. This
makes sense of the C$1.3m rise in “leach pad ore” inventory (when that becomes “finished
metal is unknown and could be anytime from the pregnant solution pond to the carbon that’s
shipped out of the mine). This again points to the lag between mining and revenue collection
that won’t be an issues once we’re up and
running, but makes sense of the corporate 500 MAI.v: Shares Out
decision to add that U$3m backstop facility. From 450
400
there we have non-commercial equivalent
350
numbers for COGS, mine operating income and a
300
net income of C$1.068m, all highlighted on the 250
page. That small net profit is a good start and 200
gives a clue on the type of cash this small mine 150
100
will start throwing off as it gets into gear and
50
starts paying for the Cerro de Oro build.
0
That about wraps things up for this quarter, we’ll
end with a quick update on the share count,
which is about to nudge to 450m and a final good news send-off: Away from Santana and its
nascent production and buried in the MD&A notes about La Fortuna was this:
As of May 15, 2022, no execution of the La Fortuna royalty agreement was completed
and the Royalty Option for the Osisko royalty on the La Fortuna project has expired.
The result of this expiry means that the only royalty encumbrance on the property is a
1% NSR in favour of Metalla Royalty & Streaming Ltd. on a small portion of the overall
property encompassing the resource area outlined above. In addition, the
Royalty/Stream Right has terminated as a result of the disposal of all of the Minera
shareholdings held by Osisko or Osisko affiliated companies earlier this year.
That’s good news. In fact, the 4% NSR option held by Osisko Gold Royalties as a clause of its
previous financing deal was two 2% tranches, the first could be bought for $4m and the second
for $5m on an eventual construction decision. As time would have run out on the second part it
wouldn’t have mattered anyway, but for us on the outside it’s a positive to see OGR not take up
its option on a 2% NSR for $4m, what would have been close to chump change for Roosen’s
6
81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 tse22q2
source: company filings
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entity. They may have been put off by the way La Fortuna’s development timeline has been
shuffled back behind that of Cerro de Oro, or there might have been some internal politics
going one after the brutish way OGR dumped its MAI share position into the market during
4q21, but for whatever reason this means less encumbrance on a mine that’s almost certain to
go into production, which is good for us and for MAI. That’s one for the future, but the main
takeaway from the 1q22 financials is that while still in very early days, MAI is in good financial
shape and ready to execute on its plans for growth in FY22 and 23. As long as it rains.
Stocks to Follow
An improvement of sorts for the Stocks to Follow list as, despite the headcount going marginally
against us with seven weekly winners (RIO.v, ARG.to, DSV.v, QCCU.v, SGI.v, MAI.cse, NCAU.v),
one stock that stayed unchanged (APN.v) and eight losers (MAI.v, ECU.v, CKG.v, ALDE.v, PA.v,
ELBM.v WRN.to, MENE.v) most of the main trades went in the right direction and it was the
smaller spec shots that lagged. The notable exception to that rule was Top Pick Minera Alamos
(MAI.v) and I suppose Element29 (ECU.v) as well, but bigger percentage moves in QC Copper
& Gold (QCCU.v up 11.9%) and Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v up 9.4%) made up for it. However, it must be
said that the lack of depth in the price improvements and the way the tinycap stocks continue
to lag the bigger mining companies is testament to the continued nervousness out there.
We’re down to 16 open positions, four below our self-imposed maximum (and if you prefer the
old system, I’m down to 13 of 15 open positions owned). Just three are in the green and the
others are still in the red, but things are getting better. Honest, guv.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.56 166.7% $1.14 tgt, #1 idea on FY22 dev
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v STR BUY C$0.83 22-Apr-18 C$0.58 -30.1% $1.30 tgt May22 permit catalyst
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Amerigo Res ARG.to STR BUY C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.72 26.5% $2.40 tgt on FY22 guidance
Discovery Silver DSV.v SPEC BUY C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.47 -16.9% Top Ag play, 1st tgt $2.75
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v SPEC BUY C$0.275 25-Apr-21 C$0.235 -14.5% Now drilling. Easy hold
Superior Gold SGI.v STR BUY C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.85 -10.5% Au prod jr, right place/time
Element 29 ECU.v HOLD C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.365 -37.1% Cu exploreco w/ 2 Peru assets
SPECULATIVE TRADES
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v SPEC BUY C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$2.51 -18.2% Au leverage, small trade so far
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v HOLD C$0.72 16-May-21 C$0.73 1.4% May sell on NR window
Palamina Corp PA.v SPEC BUY C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.14 -52.5% Au expl in S.Peru
Altiplano Metals APN.v HOLD C$0.31 17-Sep-21 C$0.245 -21.0% Cheap entry, plan on track.
Minera IRL MIRL.cse hold C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.095 -51.3% CEO change will move stock
THREE TRADE IDEAS FROM IKN670, March 2022 (originally five)
Newcore Gold NCAU.v WATCH C$0.51 20-Mar-22 C$0.405 -20.6% tracking IKN670 idea
Electra Battery ELBM.v WATCH C$5.31 20-Mar-22 C$4.82 -9.2% tracking IKN670 idea
Western Copper WRN.to SPEC BUY C$2.41 20-Mar-22 C$2.12 -12.0% tracking IKN670 idea
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.66 6-Dec-20 C$0.50 -24.2% LT bet, adding slowly
7

CLOSED TRADES IN 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1.5 years
2015 to 2021 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for a few notes on covered companies:
Mene Inc (MENE.v): I added a few and the cost average dropped by a penny to 66c, while
the week saw MENE close at new lows of 50c. Every time I “add a few” (which is on occasion),
I can’t help but wonder whether I’m making a mistake and should go in heavier. It was the
same again last week, but as I’m trying to preserve treasury for a later date and for other,
more mine-related stocks, it was a little easier this time.
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v): The bargain-hunters were out on Monday and the low prices were snapped
up. Unfortunately, volume didn’t follow up that original spurt and while RIO.v had a good week,
we still find the stock with a 5-handle this weekend. Yes, that’s very cheap and yes, you should
take advantage.
For an update on our rumour-based permitting talk of last weekend, check out the last part of
this interview (4) published last week that included RIO.v CEO Alex Black (and Hayden Locke of
Marimaca (MARI.to)) in which, after a conversation that touched several bases, he addressed
the Rio2 permitting track, and said just before the 35 minute mark, “We’re waiting for our
approval and it’s coming shortly.” I’ll take that.
Minera Alamos (MAI.v): We did plenty of MAI in today’s main Fundies page, here we add a
simple ten-day comparative chart and that
was a disappointing finish to the week.
However, it only takes one (or two) sellers
on a nervy day to dump a stock a couple of
extra cents and while a late week sell-off is
never a welcome sight for longs, it’s not one
to worry about too much. Comes with the
territory and once MAI brings real news from
Santana 43-101, then Cerro de Oro 43-101,
then Santana commercial production to the
world, it will all be forgotten.
8

QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v): More decent drilling news out of QCCU last week (5) and with
the “turning waste into ore” type title explaining what they are doing at Opemiska at the
moment.
Once again the market scratched its head at the NR and wondered why the low grades in the
headlines and table elicited such excitement from the team, once again the company visuals
didn’t help much in understanding how the waste is being turned into ore. I’m resigned to
seeing this stock bounce around in the 20s until
the resource update shows, at which point the
wider world may cotton on to what’s happening
at this company and how cheaply it’s being
valued compared to the potential.
Electra Battery Materials (ELBM.v): Until
further notice, I’m going to stick to last week’s
posited theory that its open ATM share sale
facility will weigh on the share price and stop
any meaningful upside from happening.
Whether true or false, it fits the evidence from
this week.
Newcore Gold (NCAU.v): Good to see NCAU back with a 4-handle, but…
…the lack of volume is the flipside to the story. We just got dedicated sellers pushing it down,
there’s less appetite for the upside recovery so far. I like this company, its management is
correct and they are advancing their project at a good clip but for the moment and due to the
macro backdrop, I’ll watch.
9

Amerigo Resources (ARG.to): Not a word of complaint about the way ARG is being
managed these days:
The total for May 2022 share buybacks was posted to the company website last week (6) and
there’s little doubt who was the counterparty of that recent 2.3m share block. The company
continues to buy back at an aggressive rate, spending C$5.52m gross in May alone and along
with the continued 3c/quarter dividend policy, now leads the field among juniors intent on
returning capital to shareholders. Add in copper’s bounce return over U$4.50/lb as Shanghai re-
opens (see The Copper Basket), it was an excellent week for ARG and the only thing that didn’t
run in favour of those already long was the share price, which only moved a few pennies, But
it’s not for me to be greedy and bemoan the lack of near-term movement, instead we
underscore the opportunity and excellent value embedded into this stock as this level. This
trade is about as obvious as they get in this sector.
 Right metal
 Right time
 Right country
 Right management doing the right things
 Right price
Forget the rest, buy the best junior copper company on The Americas. Table bang complete.
The Copper Basket
After twenty-two weeks of 2022, The Copper Basket shows a loss of 26.44% level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/22 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Copper Mtn CMMC.to 3.42 210.166 588.46 2.80 -18.1%
2 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.77 88.118 340.14 3.86 2.4%
3 Western Copper WRN.to 2.00 151.451 321.08 2.12 6.0%
4 Oroco Res OCO.v 2.04 203.4 272.56 1.34 -34.3%
5 Nevada Copper NCU.to 0.71 448.437 219.73 0.49 -31.0%
6 Hot Chili HCH.v 1.53 109.223 125.61 1.15 -24.8%
7 Regulus Res. REG.v 1.06 101.845 107.96 1.06 0.0%
8 Meridian Min MNO.to 1.18 153.735 104.54 0.68 -42.4%
9 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.84 114.495 83.58 0.73 -13.1%
10 C3 Metals CCCM.v 0.16 645.379 45.18 0.07 -56.3%
11 Kutcho Copper KC.v 0.88 103.94 41.58 0.40 -54.0%
12 Doré Copper DCMC.v 0.79 66.123 39.67 0.60 -24.1%
13 QC Copper QCCU.v 0.34 129.06 30.33 0.235 -30.9%
14 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.58 79.24 28.92 0.365 -36.2%
15 Coast Copper COCO.v 0.13 41.335 3.31 0.08 -38.5%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg -26.44%
10

This basket was surprising result and not necessarily a pleasant one. Copper did us proud with
its rebound, but the lack of follow-through from
copper names as sampled here highlights the 5% The Copper Basket 2022, weekly evolution
continued skittishness among the retail market 0%
and copper juniors. Despite watching copper the -5%
metal break out of its funk and reclaim the -10%
U$4.50/lb line last week, our Copper Basket -15%
average only managed to add recover 1% of its -20%
-25%
previous losses. And while somewhat better, even
-30%
the bigger copper producers failed to match the
-35%
4% pop in copper on the week, here we see how
the main copper producer ETF COPX managed to
gain less than 3% and under-performed its
commodity…so much for leverage.
So to the count and there were eight week-over-
week winners (CMMC.to, OCO.v, MARI.to, NCU.to,
HCH.v, REG.v, CCCM.v, QCCU.v), two stocks were
unchanged (DCMC.v, COCO.v) and five losers
(WRN.to, MNO.to, ALDE.v, KC.v, ECU.v) and of
those, the two biggest percentage winners were C3
Metals (CCCM.v up 16.7% or in plain English, a
penny) and QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v up 11.9%).
The biggest loser was Meridian (MNO.to down
9.3%).
We move to the price moves in copper the metal and Thursday morning saw the big move. This
three month chart just about catches the moment a couple of weeks from Russia’s initial
invasion of Ukraine when Kyiv was under direct threat and the world trembled (a little more
than it trembles today, it seems).
This time, Shanghai’s re-opening caused the pop (7):
The copper price jumped on Thursday as China’s zero-covid strategy appears to be
winding down.
Officials in Shanghai announced an end to a two-month lockdown on Monday. China’s
cabinet on Tuesday announced a package of 33 measures covering fiscal, financial,
investment and industrial policies to revive its pandemic-ravaged economy.
The development could boost downstream consumption, which was halted for months
due to the recent covid-19 outbreak.
11
ts1naJ ht9naJ ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6bef ht31 ht02 ht72 t6raM ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3rpA ht01 ht71 ht42 1yam ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5nuj
source: IKN calcs

As I wrote somewhere on the blog last week, it’s all-too easy to play Monday Morning QB about
moves such as these and the last thing you want from your know-it-all newsletter writer is “Oh
of course the end of Shanghai’s Covid lockdown would cause a move in copper like this” when
we didn’t make any mention of the trigger. But missing a specific breakout moment isn’t such a
worry when you’re already plenty long copper and the move was welcome.
It’s the end of another month, here are the long-term copper inventory tracking charts with one
more column added to the right of the headline visual:
Key Cu inventory aggregate, 2012 to date
1000000
900000
800000
700000
600000
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
12
21.naJ ram yam luj pes von 31.naJ ram yam luj pes von 41.naj ram yam luj pes von 51.naj ram yam luj pes von 61.naj ram yam luj pes von 71.naj ram yam luj pes von 81
naj
ram yam luj pes von 91
naj
ram yam luj pes von 02
naj
ram yam luj pes von 12
naj
ram yam luj pes von 22
naj
ram yam
Mt Cu
Comex
Shanghai
LME
source: Cochilco
We go on a lot about Shanghai and its influence on the current tight market, today we add a
heads-up on LME inventory seasonality as we’re entering the northern summer period in which
LME traditionally adds inventory as Shanghai’s numbers come off. With copper stocks low in
SHFE, we now get to see whether the normal additions happen at its main competitor over the
next three months.
LME copper stocks, 2019 to date
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
91
naj
bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 02
naj
bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 12
naj
bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 22
naj
bef ram rpa yam
source: LME data
reppoc
sennot
cirtem
Copper inventories: percentage held per exchange
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
21.naJ ram yam luj pes von 31.naJ ram yam luj pes von 41.naj ram yam luj pes von 51.naj ram yam luj pes von 61.naj ram yam luj pes von 71.naj ram yam luj pes von 81
naj
ram yam luj pes von 91
naj
ram yam luj pes von 02
naj
ram yam luj pes von 12
naj
ram yam luj pes von 22
naj
ram yam
LME Shanghai Comex source: Cochilco
As the percentage distribution chart shows, there’s very little change from the end of last
month and the same story applies. And LME or not, the centre of the supply remains Shanghai.
And while on the topic of Chinese copper inventory levels, today let’s add a word on the dataset
we tend not to track here at The IKN Weekly, those of the unofficial or bonded warehouse
stocks in China. The reasons we concentrate on the three official systems include 1) there’s all
the price discovery data we need under normal circumstances 2) the bonded warehouse data is
unofficial and prone to “estimates” from people who may not want us to know the whole truth
and 3) in a healthy market, bonded copper will eventually move into the official warehouses

once the call goes out (i.e. premiums become attractive enough). However, the uber-tight
regime at the moment shows a lack of alternative supply to SHFE inventories and as this
website (8) does a good job of updated on the bonded warehouses on a weekly basis, let’s take
in their visual of the week:
These days, the data is split between Shanghai and Guandong bonded warehouses and as at
this weekend, the reported numbers and 265,300mt in Shanghai and 29,500mt in Guandong.
There has been some re-stocking since the start of the year, but we’re notably short of the
400kmt seen in July 2021 which disappeared very quickly and overall, the current supply
tightness signalled by the official systems is clearly on display here, too
Enough monthly data, we now return to our regular weekly slot:
 Another aggregate drawdown of world copper inventories last week, this time the total
of our three systems below lost 8,731 metric tonnes (mt) to close on Friday with
270,817mt in stock. Even at the recent 300kmt+ number things were tight, we’ve lost
50kmt since then.
 A small add at the SHFE, with 1,801mt added as Shanghai comes back to life. Friday’s
close was at 43,347mt and according to local media, we should also see tonnage
additions in the coming week as containers arrive at port. How much of that due to
arbitrage is yet to be revealed.
 The big drop of the week was at the LME, as the pattern of South Korea draw downs
continues. The LME total lost 10,225mt to finish at 145,950mt and of that, 6,225mt
came out of South Korea (with another 2,850mt from Taiwan).
 The Comex inventory total lost 307mt and closed at 72,314mt. No biggie, as usual.
Here are the dedicated SHFE charts, backing up the assertion above. Things remain drumtight
in the world of copper supply, as last week’s price jump indicates.
Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2014 to date
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
13
31'13ceD dr32 ht02 ht51 ht01 ht5tco ht03 ht52 dn22 ht71 ht21 ht6pes ts1von 5102ht72ced ts12 ht71 ht21 ht7guA dn2tcO ht4ceD ht92 ht62 ts12 ht61 ht01 7102
ht5von
ts13 ht52 dn22 ht42 ht91 ht41 ht9 9102
dr3bef
ts13 ht62 ts12 ht51 ht01 0202ht5naj 0202ts1ram ht62 ts12 ht61 ht11 0202ht6ced ts13 ht82 dr32 ht81 ht21 ht7 2202dn2naj ht72 ht42
Mt Cu
|
source: Cochilco

SHFE copper inventory levels, 2018 to 2022
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
14
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
MT Cu 2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
source: Cochilco data
Now for a notes from a couple of basket stocks:
C3 Metals (CCCM.v): Somewhere in my head I got June and July mixed up last week, so
here’s a quick update to make things clear. The deal by CCCM.v to buy Jasperoide from
Hochschild involved giving HOC 25m shares on July 13th, of which the first half have already
come out of escrow and were sold into the market by HOC. The last 25m are freed up on July
13th, (9) rather than “in the first days of June” as I wrote previously, and means there still six
weeks or so before that paper tsunami hits the stock.
In the meantime, CCCM announced a “discovery” at its Jamaica project in a NR that reminded
your author of a seven dollar bill. It got a post on the blog for its efforts. Avoid.
Copper Mountain (CMMC.to): True to form as one of the Canadian market’s go-to stocks for
copper speculation, CMMC moved hard on the copper rebound last week. It also re-traced on
Friday along with the metal, after briefly
touching C$3.00 intraday Thursday and the
other thing this ten-day comparative chart
of CMMC against the COPX ETF shows is
the stock’s trading volatility, those are fast
moves and nasty retracements on the back
of changing sentiment in copper stocks.
Subject of a revised look just two weeks
ago, the house call to put CMMC back on
the radar was the right one, our mistake
was to wait around for another bout of
weakness instead of buying back
immediately. That’s a fliptrade missed and
so be it, but I’m not in a hurry to buy back
CMMC at these new levels and will only bite if the price dips again. It’s volatile enough to do so.
Meridian Mining (MNO.to): Down 9.35 while all around rallied, there has been some strange
trading action in this stock for the last couple of weeks and strange isn’t normally good in the
junior world. The company has continued to deliver good newsflow on Cabacal, but the selling
has been relentless and paper seems keen to liquidate. I’m beginning to suspect I may have
missed a bullet.
And finally, while it still surprises to get mails on the subject, today you get a necessary
reminder of the make-up and purpose of The Copper Basket. This is not, repeat NOT a list of
recommended stocks. It’s a basket of representative stocks, chosen so that we may keep a
finger on the pulse of the junior copper exploreco (and some junior producers) market and
contained a real mixed bunch, as it does every year and all under the $1Bn max market cap
barrier. The “tracking purposes only” concept is also true for the two baskets below, Producer
and TinyCaps, so anyone claiming otherwise simply has not been listening (though I do try to

beat the GDX every year with my Producer Basket picks, but only as a bit of fun and there’s no
money involved). As the old saying goes, you can lead a horse to water but you can’t bring that
dog in ‘ere, mate.
The Producer Basket
After twenty-two weeks of 2022, the Producer Basket shows a gain of 1.07% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/22 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 62.02 797.44 54.08 67.82 9.4%
2 Barrick GOLD 19.00 1779 36.79 20.68 8.4%
3 Franco-Nevada FNV 138.29 191.192 27.47 143.70 3.9%
4 Agnico Eagle AEM 53.14 454.904 24.65 54.18 2.0%
5 Wheaton PM WPM 42.93 450.3 19.06 42.33 -1.4%
6 Gold Fields GFI 10.99 887.72 8.61 9.70 -11.7%
7 Kinross Gold KGC 5.81 1296.5 5.90 4.55 -21.7%
8 B2Gold BTG 3.93 1055.6 4.37 4.14 5.3%
9 Alamos Gold AGI 7.69 392.503 3.16 8.05 4.7%
10 Sandstorm SAND 6.20 191.4 1.32 6.91 11.5%
All prices and stock quotes in U$ Port. avg 1.07%
It was a positive week for the larger PM producers and would have been even better f it hadn’t
been for the way the GFI/AUY merger news was received by the market. As it was, the GDXJ
(up 2.5%) did better than the GDX (up just five pennies) and both were better than our list that
contains one tenth weighting of GFI. Ugh, caught again and as you can see in the tracking
charts, the recent improvement against the benchmark has all gone away.
The 2022 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
35% comparative to GDX control
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
Anyway, the headcount on the week is six winners (GOLD, FNV, AEM, WPM, BTG, AGI), one
unchanged stock (KGC) and three losers (NEM, WPM, GFI) and of those three, by far the
biggest mover was Gold Fields, which dropped 20.5%. As for the winners, Alamos Gold (AGI up
6.2% was the biggest move due to the way it moved up in the potential takeover shopping lists
(though somehow I doubt it now, see below).
Gold Fields (GFI): The IKN Weekly doesn’t
specialize in large cap players and what’s
more, this ticketed U$6.7Bn deal by GFI to
buy Yamana (AUY) has been analysed and
hashed over by plenty of other places already.
I’m not going to bring any new analysis t the
table no matter how deep we go into the
(rather interesting, it must be said)
transaction on either side of the fence.
Instead I’m going to limit myself to a couple
15
ts1naJ ht9naJ ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6bef ht31 ht02 ht72 ht6ram ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3rpa ht01 ht71 ht42 ts1yam ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5nuj
The 2022 Producer Basket: Percentage difference
between GDX benchmark & basket (negative = IKN ahead) 5.0%
4.5%
4.0%
ikn 3.5%
gdx control 3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
source: NYSE, IKN Calcs ts1naJ ht9naJ ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6bef ht31 ht02 ht72 ht6ram ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3rpa ht01 ht71 ht42 ts1yam ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5nuj
source: IKN calcs, NYSE data

of op-ed comments on the strategy and implications of this deal and my main point is
straightforward:
NOW YOU KNOW WHY THERE ISN’T MUCH M&A HAPPENING.
One look at the comparative chart shows the reception for this deal and what kind of mess GFI
has made for itself.
Due to the Monday open, this doesn’t quite show all the 20.5% week-over-week loss taken by
GFI’s shares, but it’s close enough and compares the stock to the basically UNCH level of peers.
True also for Yamana (AUY), which sold this friendly combination to its holders by highlighting
the value it was unlocking for them. Here’s a quote from one of the deal NRs (10):
The Transaction implies a valuation for Yamana of US$6.7 billion and represents a
premium of 33.8% to the 10-day Volume-Weighted Average Price (“VWAP”) of
Yamana’s Shares of US$ 5.201 on Friday, May 27, 2022, being the last trading day on
the NYSE prior to the date of this announcement, based on the 10-day VWAP of Gold
Fields ADSs of US$ 11.592. Upon closing of the Transaction, it is anticipated that Gold
Fields Shareholders and Yamana Shareholders will own approximately 61% and 39%
of the Combined Group, respectively.
AUY closed at U$5.68 on Friday, which implies an improvement of 9.2% since Friday 27th. Not
exactly the 33.8% advertised and it’s all due to the way this all-share deal, in which GFI offers
0.6 shares for every 1 AUY share, was slaughtered by the market and in my opinion, in a highly
unfair manner. For the basics, GFI is hardly overpaying for AUY, as its ostensible deal price of
U$6.7Bn values the stock at 1.27X book. That’s not bad for a profitable entity with cash
treasury and a decent working capital position. The synergy of the two companies is reasonable
too, with GFI getting exposure to Canada, Brazil and Argentina in one fell swoop, plus tie-up
deals at AUY’s Peñon and Minera Florida in Chile that will suit its established footprint there.
At the enforced discount to the ticket price, GFI is basically buying AUY at book value, and
that’s crazy. AUY may not be the bee’s knees as mining companies go, but it’s a long-
established, profitable entity with competent assets, a decent balance sheet and no particular
weaknesses on show (apart from MARA/Agua Rica). The whacking taken by GFI on an all-share
deal that isn’t about to weaken it corporate financial position in any way has been overdone
and shows why other companies are reticent to go to market and strike their own deals.
Therefore, GFI is my idea of a near-term outperformer in the large cap space. We may need to
wait until the shorts are lifted and the arbitrageurs have left, but this stock price too more
punishment than it deserved last week and what’s more, if the sector wants more M&A action it
will need to support companies such as GFI better than this.
The TinyCaps List
After twenty-two weeks of 2022, the TinyCaps show a loss of 23.47% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/22 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Aurelius Min AUL.v 0.24 45.836 7.33 0.16 -33.3%
Golden Pursuit GDP.v 0.13 34.638 3.46 0.10 -23.1%
Infield Min INFD.v 0.06 48.445 1.94 0.04 -33.3%
Kingfisher Met KFR.v 0.30 102.46 25.62 0.25 -16.7%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.12 57.296 6.02 0.105 -12.5%
Manitou Gold MTU.v 0.06 344.57 10.34 0.03 -50.0%
Melkior Res MKR.v 0.295 24.011 6.48 0.27 -8.5%
Precipitate Gold PRG.v 0.105 129.322 10.99 0.085 -19.0%
Signature Res SGU.v 0.07 238.4 10.73 0.045 -35.7%
Winshear Gold WINS.v 0.08 61.585 4.93 0.08 0.0%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg -23.47%
16

This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $20m. They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a
little and allowed sub-U$20m market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, but it was a particularly depressing exercise to trawl through the whole of the TSXV and find companies
that are small enough, but with life in them. The vast majority of sub-$20m stocks are broken stocks, either
traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2020. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
15% TinyCaps, 2022 weekly tracker
Our basket average hit a new low for the year,
10%
as four losers (AUL.v, KFR.v, PRG.v, SGU.v)
5%
outweighed two winners (MKR.v, WINS.v), with
0%
four UNCH stocks in between (GDP.v, INFD.v,
-5%
LMS.v, MTU.v). Overall it was once again a
-10%
quiet week at the tinycap end of the market,
-15%
there’s very little appetite for these new and
-20%
small companies at the moment and it shows in
-25%
the paucity of volume. The only moves of
interest were to the downside, with Aurelius
(AUL.v down 15.8%) continuing its post-MRE
slide and Signature (SGU.v down 10.0%)
getting no love after handing out paper to its insiders.
Signature Resources (SGU.v): The news out of SGU on Monday (11) made the blog at the
time, as it joined the growing and annoying list of exploreco awarding incentive options that
immediately vest.
Stock Options
The Company has also granted a combined total of 4,000,000 incentive stock options
to the Board and Management of the Company. The options have an exercise price of
$0.06, expire five years from the date of issuance, and vest 25% immediately, and
25% annually thereafter through to the third anniversary.
I made the point on the blog and I’ll make it here, too. While by no means the only junior guilty
of this trend, SGU’s decision to award incentive options that immediately vest runs against the
very principle involved. Incentive options were
created to align insiders with their shareholder
support, not to undermine them. By awarding
incentive options that vest immediately, insiders
(who will also naturally have better information from
which to make their buy/sell/hold decisions) compete
with shareholders in the present day market. No
longer are they working for the betterment of the
share price in the medium or long-term, instead we
are left to wonder at what point these people jump
the queue and exercise then sell their free shares in
front of us (diluting the share count in the process).
Tinycap explorecos are emboldened to take this course and give out what amount to free
money that works to the detriment of real shareholders, only because other companies do the
same. In the end, a company with its own by-laws can do whatever it wants, but that’s also
true for current or potential retail shareholders in the market and when a company makes such
17
dn2naJ ht9
naJ
ht61naJ dr32 ht03 ht6bef ht31 ht02 ht72 ht6ram ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3rpa ht01 ht71 ht42 ts1yam ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5nuj
source: IKN calcs, TSX data

a clear statement to prioritize their own pockets over the those of the people that fund their
company, they will eventually reap what they sow.
Aurelius (AUL.v): The only other notable move of the week in our list of ten was in this one,
sadly. The big sell-off following the previous week’s MRE continued last week, though on
reduced volume except for early Friday morning and that bar you see on the right of the chart.
The price of average results in a difficult market, AUL now needs to dilute heavily to raise the
cash required to develop Aureus further.
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future
I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
The Colombia Presidential run-off: Reasons to be concerned
As essentially mining investors and outsiders to the Colombia Presidential election, the
upcoming June 19th run-off vote between Lefty Gustavo Petro and populist right wing
independent candidate Rodolfo Hernández has become problematic, as the possible negative
outcomes now outweigh the positives. Readers of this note may want to root for their own
political preference in the vote (and mining being mining, that’s unlikely to be Petro) but this
isn’t about party politics or ideology, as issues stem as much from governance problems once
the election is done (or to directly translated a modern Spanish word, “governability”, captures
it well). I’m aware the job today isn’t to write 5,000 words on the general political background
of Colombia going into this highly significant election for both country and region and will try to
keep this focused on audience needs, so we’ll check latest polls and market clues, consider the
people in the running and then what might happen after June 19th, trying to keep mining as
central focus. The main message today is this is a difficult election to predict and anything
might happen afterward, which is underlined for a good reason.
The latest polls say it’s tight: We’ve had a few snap polls taken and published since the
outcome of last week’s Round One, in which Petro (40.33%) came top as expected, but Rodolfo
Hernández (28.15%) beat Fico Gutiérrez (23.92%) for second place and surprised a whole
bunch of people. That same evening, Fico endorsed Hernández for the second round and while
there haven’t been any formal pacts announced since Sunday, it’s now patently obvious that
Colombia’s right wing is now lining up behind him.
We saw this the day after the result, when reasonably reliable pollster CNC took a phone-only
poll for the respectable Semana Magazine and called it Hernández 41%, Petro 39% with a
margin of error of 2.8%. This early poll went down well with the markets (see below), as did
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the result on Wednesday evening from a lesser polling company commissioned by a notoriously
right wing media channel that announced Hernández on 52%, Petro 44%.
However, those very early polls may have sent an overly optimistic message for the Rodolfo
camp and this weekend, the polls have tightened up. The same CNC pollster, but this time via a
face-to-face poll taken between Tuesday May 31st and Thursday June 2nd (12) put lefty Gustavo
Petro in a slight lead with 44.9% and Hernández on 41.0% (along with “don’t know/no
response” on 9.4%, “vote in white” 3.0% and “neither” 1.7%, with a margin of error of +/-
2.1%). Then today Sunday, another poll from lesser pollster Guarumo SAS in collaboration with
two other firms and taken between June 1st and yesterday June 4th (13) has Rodolfo Hernández
in a slight lead, with 46.4% compared to Petro on 43.3%. The margin of error is +/-2.5% and
that means it puts Hernández in a slight lead. Clearly, one of these last two polls is wrong.
Finally, this Sunday afternoon Colombia’s most respected poll “La Gran Encuesta”, announced a
statistical dead-heat of Petro 42% and Hernández 41%, which suggests it’s all to play for.
The financial markets have a say, too. There’s a thin betting market out there for this election
and if you care enough, this weekend US forecasting website PredictIt had Rodolfo at 66%
likelihood and Petro 35% (rounded, of course), but the best financial gauge of the election is
the Colombia Peso (COP) forex moves against the US Dollar. Here’s a useful link (14) you may
want to check as the next week progresses, here’s how the forex pair closed Friday:
The markets applauded the Hernández result and the pair closed Friday at USD1= COP3,767,
after its recent sojourn over 4,000. If Rodolfo
Hernández goes on to win, expect the COP to knee-
jerk even lower (best guess would be 3,400 to
3,500 to the Dollar), whereas a Petro win would see
the COP hit new lows and 4,200 would be on deck.
With the latest CNC and Gran Encuesta polls out
this weekend (see above), expect the COP to
weaken when it opens for trading tomorrow
Monday morning as a result of the added
uncertainty.
As for the field and scenario for the two weeks to
come, this screenshot of a report out of Peru’s
newspaper of record, El Comercio (15), sums it up
nicely and translated as “Will Tiktok Be Enough for
Rodolfo Hernández To Win The Second Round in
Colombia?” It’s a hot topic, as Hernández didn’t
show at any of the previous TV candidate debates
and has declared he will not show at the three
scheduled Presidential debates between the top two
candidates, using the excuse that “he doesn’t want
to answer complex questions in one minute”. The
19

reality is that he knows Petro would likely wipe the floor with him in a classic debate scenario
and instead, his team strategy is to use social media, particularly soundbite-sized appearances
on Facebook (his #1 audience), Tiktok (#2), Twitter and Instagram to reach his audience. This
is a Big Thing in Colombia, a Presidential candidate has never turned their back on the debate
stage and Hernández has received plenty of criticism for taking this route from traditional
political circles. Hernández and his team are banking on the penetration of carefully phrased
soundbites that social media offers to other segments of the population and if that sounds like
the same right wing populist strategy in fashion in other parts of the world, you won’t be
surprised to learn that Hernández’s team includes the social media experts who work for the
Nayib Bukele El Salvador campaign.
There’s more than one reason Hernández is ducking the live TV debates, however. He’s also
notoriously hot-headed and prone to putting his foot firmly in it, as seen on Friday (16) when
he took a news radio interview slot with a reputable State-run channel. The Q&A quickly
deteriorated, with Hernández accusing the interviewers of “asking stupid questions” and being
closet Petro supporters. The ruckus was national headline news the next day, with the radio
station and the journalists protesting their treatment at the hands of the candidate and fwiw,
after listening to the incident the journalists have a good point. They only asked the questions
one would want to know about a future President. Without the live TV debates, there won’t be
many opportunities aside from asking him directly in a Q&A such as this. Another risk is to leave
TV open for his opponent, as according to the electoral law the candidates have three hour-
long slots on national TV and while Petro obviously won’t debate against himself, he’s likely to
use all three in a different format. The scenario boils down to whether Rodolfo “sniping from
Twitter” will be enough to counter Petro’s more standard line of electoral campaigning and the
answer is “I don’t know”, but it won’t be a surprise to see the right wing populist on the
defensive for the first time this year. At some point he will have to address questions, be they
on manifesto policies or any “stupid questions” on his personal affairs.
As for the issues that annoy Hernández, they centre on the court case that’s ongoing against
him for the very bloated public refuse collection contracts he awarded, apparently to friends
and family including his son-in-law, while Mayor of Bucaramanga in 2016-2019 period. The
details of the case are only now coming to light on the national scene (this report out this
weekend (17) goes into detail and includes court documents showing the depth of evidence
against him) and there’s plenty of evidence to show his involvement in the contract awards , as
well as cover-up afterwards. Also, another open criminal investigation against him has come to
light this weekend (18), which gives more ammunition to the Petro side of the battle. All in all,
not a good look for a candidate whose party is named “The League of Anti Corruption
Governors” and whose only repeated policy issue is to “throw out the corrupt politicians”. His
other weak point is his reliance on Colombia’s right wing for votes. He’s not courting the Uribe
supporters, in fact his job is to ignore them and move to the centre, but it’s notable how much
lefty Petro reminds Colombia of the clear relationship between Hernández and the right wing
support. With ex-President Alvaro Uribe’s support having waned greatly in Colombia, this is
another way Petro could win out now that the first flush of enthusiasm for the Anti-Candidate
has washed through. Meanwhile, the foreign press corps have labelled Hernández “The Trump
of Colombia” and there are plenty of similarities between the two; Populist message, right wing,
successful businessman, 77 years old, prone to making controversial statements, running in a
country yearning for change, all those fit. However, he doesn’t have Trump’s reach or previous
fame and the way he limits his public exposure to social media, plus the ongoing criminal
corruption cases, will weigh against him in this final stretch.
By voting down “the government candidate” Fico, Colombians have demanded change, now
they have to decide whether Hernández represents the same power groups as before or
whether he’s able to make a difference from the right. If not, Petro is obviously a change and
while it would be one to the left, he’ll still win. As in nearly every Presidential election these
days the political hard left and hard right votes of this country are sewn up, the fight is in the
centre and will be as much about style as substance. Colombia is naturally right wing and the
large “AntiPetro” bloc who would never vote left after witnessing the FARC civil war is the main
20

reason to look for a Hernández win, meanwhile Petro’s job is to convince people that he’s not a
threat to national security and will bring the change they want without dragging the country
into full-scale ideological turmoil. As such, on the campaign trail this week Petro made every
effort to modelling himself as the safer bet and his opponent as a continuation of the right wing
“same as ever” policies that the country turned its back on during the Duque tenure. While
Hernández is the firebrand, Petro is using his cool, calm, collected style and image to good
effect (his subordinates do most of the negative campaigning dirty work).
As for the possible scenarios, there are four that we consider “from left to right”, as it were:
 Petro Wins, Hernández concedes: This is the easiest scenario to call, despite being a
bad one for our sector. In the event of a Petro win that the Hernández team recognizes
in good spirit, the mining sector in Colombia is a four year short.
 Petro wins, Hernández contests: This is a clear possible scenario that would kick in if
there’s less than a percentage point (or two) between the candidates. In this case, the
prospect of Colombia going anti-mining is aggravated further by near-term political
turmoil and an uncertain handover period. Even while Hernandez courts the political
centre, be in no doubt that Colombia’s hard right will vote for him en masse, groups
with funding (and arms) will howl their claims of lefty fraud from the rooftops and could
cause social problems.
 Hernández wins, Petro contests: Also a clear possible scenario, for the same reason as
above but with Rodolfo on top of a tight count. I’d go as far as to say that in the event
of a tight result, there’s more chance of Petro causing institutional trouble than
Hernández and the fractured, regional nature of the national vote means he’ll get
plenty of support over “fraud claims” from his Bogotá stronghold region and its political
power. A tight win and sustained protests of fraud could bring serious social upheaval
to Colombia.
 Hernández wins, Petro concedes: Even this, the best near-term result for the mining
industry, is hardly a panacea. A Rodolfo Presidency will allow “the usual suspects” to
continue in power in the country but assembled under a loose cannon of a President
who is not guaranteed to garner political support for his policies. Also and as pertains to
mining, even under the Duque government we saw precious little progress in the sector
and effective regional opposition to a host of projects, it’s even less likely that a Rodolfo
presidency would be able to push through permitting approvals or long-overdue legals
reforms for the sector.
The bottom line: Despite the early polls that suggest Hernández has the upper hand in this run-
off, there’s as much reason to avoid exposure to Colombia’s mining sector (and other sectors,
for that matter) as there was before last weekend’s surprise result. For one, Petro has every
chance of winning on June 19th and the latest polls show that. For another, if it’s a tight victory
for either candidate, the chances of social problems are now high. Even the “good result” of a
Hernández victory could be near and longer-term instability to a country that was volatile
enough even before this election began. Finally and though I won’t go on the record by calling
this a prediction, the way in which polls have quickly moved back toward Petro in this last week
suggests he still has a favourite’s chance and if only for that, you’re a braver speculator than I if
you buy Colombian-exposed miners before June 19th.
Bottom bottom line: Avoid Colombia.
A webinar by Chile’s mining sector on Chile’s mining sector
It’s in Spanish and will not therefore be for all the audience of this publication, but it’s well
worth sending out the link and information for the show set for Wednesday, June 8th at 6pm
Chile local time (that’s 5pm EST). The Chilean Chamber of Mining (CMC) is holding a webinar
entitled “Mining and the New Constitution: Certainty or Uncertainty” (Cámara Minera de Chile:
21

“Minería y Nueva Constitución: Certeza o Incertidumbre”). There are six local experts on the
panel coming from their own specialities (operational, legal, political, etc) and according to the
organizers (quote translated (19) “We want to converse from all angles and views on the
articles (of the draft Constitution) that may affect mining. We hope to analyse all aspects and
have a constructive dialogue to map out the route that this important (industrial) activity may
have in the country.”
We are all invited and its free to attend, so here’s the link (20). I’ll be on the webinar and any
pertinent points will make next weekend’s edition.
Previewing The Ninth Summit of the Americas
After number eight in Peru in 2018, next week sees the Ninth Summit of the Americas happen
in L.A. USA (at the suggestion of ex-Veep Mike Pence, it so happens). The meeting of Heads of
State from the North, Central and South American landmasses has already generated
controversy on whether all will be invited and/or show up, but the event goes ahead and South
America’s main players are set to show. The three countries not invited are Cuba, Nicaragua,
and Venezuela and due to that, Mexico’s AMLO has said he’ll send his Foreign Minister in his
place (and El Salvador, Honduras, and Guatemala may do the same). However, the South has
rallied behind Argentina’s Alberto Fernández and his decision to attend (according to the talk,
Chile’s Boric is going because Alberto is going) and there will be plenty of stuffed suits for the
photo opportunity.
The USA as hosts gets to set the main agenda and has tried to keep it to its strong suits,
aiming for talks on free regional trade and open forums on the challenges faced by The
Americas in our post-Covid world. While media from both sides of the political spectrum are
bound to scrutinize this major protocol event for polemic moments and political faux pas*, the
reality is that it’s likely to go off without much controversy because essentially, the agenda has
turned it into a photo opportunity rather than a summit of any particular value.
*fauxes pas? faux pases? false passes? counterfeit tickets?
Argentina: Low demand for its balls of steel
One of the key supplies for large-scale mining is grinding mill balls for ball mills and while a lot
of mines these days receive supply from India and China, due to the nature of the product
(heavy, bulky, not overly expensive) most companies prefer to source as locally as possible.
With that in mind, this report out of Argentina last week (21) sheds light on how early the
country is in its large-scale mine developments. According to the report, country demand for
locally manufactured grinding balls is just 4,000 tonnes per annum and at the only factory in
the country to produce them, installed capacity can ramp to 50,000 tonnes easily. Due to this,
at present its main customers are small mines in Chile but that’s bound to change as new mines
come online (start with Josemaria).
There’s a long way to go for the formal mining sector in Argentina and this vignette gives an
idea of how downstream supply companies will also bring jobs to the country as it expands.
Market Watching
A Wednesday muse on portfolio management
Nothing actionable here, merely a little perspective on portfolio management. The process of
portfolio review is a permanent thing and, while I’m not a particularly rapid trader and do not
shift my money around from stock-to-cash-to-stock very often, that doesn’t stop me from
considering the portfolio on an ongoing basis and every so often, e.g. three weeks ago when
trimming sails, will make pure portfolio management calls to ring the changes.
That’s a little blurb intro to present an exchange with long-term subber and occasional mailpal
EK, who wrote in on Wednesday morning with this:
Title: DSV, PA, QCCU
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Mark, Am underwater in all 3 stocks above - plan on keeping PA as consider the
risk/reward favorable - not too sure of the other two - what do you think of risk/reward
for both DSV & QCCU?
EK’s mail fell into my mailbox at the right time, as the continued drudgery of the market had
me once again considering whether to trim exposure even further and add more cash to
treasury. At some point “trimming sails” becomes “battening down hatches” if a storm gets too
great, but at that point Wednesday it was still in hypothetical mode. However, EK had
mentioned two of the four stocks I was also musing over as potential (partial or complete) sales
due to the macro market background, rather than anything fundamentally wrong at the
companies (I hasten to add that both DSV and QCCU are in good fundies shape and I’m happy
about the way they both go about their jobs). So with some slight grammar brushing applied,
here’s my reply to EK that day:
This is a good question because it's one I've been posing myself. I will speak from my
perspective. PA is a tiny trade and is not an issue, I'm holding whatever as a spec.
 DSV is best of a bad bunch, i.e. the silver space.
 QCCU has a lot to like. Right metal at right time, good jurisdiction.
We're in a market that demands your junior vehicle have all the money it needs to
execute its plan. Those that pass the test are my biggest holdings today. MAI, RIO,
ARG and SGI all pass the test.
Which brings us to DSV and QCCU. Both are in good cash position for 2022 and
perhaps half of 2023, but that's all. Also they are both doing the boring work of
resource definition and infill drilling doesn’t move the market. Both have good insto
support, but I feel DSV's is better. Also DSV is larger and for that simple fact, more
attractive.
Bottom line: there's reason to sell both. There's reason to sell neither. DSV's weak
point is its target metal, but that is unpredictable and could revert and run at any
moment. It's why I suffer my only Ag holding, after all. QCCU will only show its true
worth at PEA stage and even then, people may not believe a PEA and demand a PFS.
However, it's copper(and gold) and in a great location, plus it's very cheap today.
Ask me and I keep both. Put a gun to my head and I'd sell QCCU but would hate the
feeling while pressing the button. However, if silver drops under $20/oz it would make
my mind up for me, then I'd then sell DSV and keep QCCU.
It’s the kind of mail I can write to EK, because I know something of his make-up as a retail
investor and we’d swapped enough mails over the years to know that he’s not going to press
any sell buttons five minutes after hearing somebody else’s opinion. In fact, as Thursday’s
welcome relief rally kicked in, he mailed again to say that he was glad he hadn’t sold anything
(both QCCU and DSV rallied nicely that day). True for me too, the rebound and particularly, the
way in which copper-the-metal broke higher brought a new level of comfort and allowed me t
shelve any thoughts of further cash raises….nothing like money moving in to boost spirits .
However, the above is presented as-is to show the type of thought process that comes with
macro portfolio decisions, ones that go above and beyond the solid fundies of any given
company.
Discovery Silver (DSV.v) hosts a site visit
We begin with a ten-day chart of DSV to show
how that Thursday relief rally kicked into this
stock hard, but it’s not the main subject today.
Last week and on schedule, Discovery Silver
(DSV.v) conducted the analyst site visit to its
Cordero project in Mexico. For what it’s worth,
they kindly invited your author and the reason I
didn’t go turned 101 days old today, but the
company was kind enough to send over the
analyst presentation deck used on the visit (if
23

you’d like a copy of the PDF, you know my mail address) and from that, here are just three
slides from the 58 pages. The first is a simple checklist of the reasons Cordero and DSV stands
out from the pack and I’ll leave it for your consideration, with no extra commentary required
other than to state that I agree with all points:
Of more interest. The other two slides are a good visual on how the key metallurgical studies
are progressing on Cordero mineralization. The two slides are related, with the second breaking
down the information of the first into metal circuitry and products, so the first is the one to
explain what’s going on. The first four lines of the chart below show the previous met results as
used in the PEA, which is why they are marked “2021 PEA” in the left column. Then follow
seven lines containing the latest met numbers from the latest and more complete testing being
done for the upcoming PFS, due in 4q22. As you can see, there are more separate rock types
tested and in nearly all cases, the recent results have seen moderate and welcome
improvements in recovery results.
So far, results are focused on the main sulphide zones rather than the minor oxide areas at
Cordero. These are more reliable locked cycle tests designed to support the upcoming PFS
show recoveries for silver of between 83% and 98% (was 80% to 89% in the PEA met testing),
and lead gets 85% to 97% (was 83% to 91%) and zinc gets 84% to 96% (was 81% to 90%).
The resulting concs are clean and saleable with very minor penalty elements and in the latest
testing, they report lower reagent consumption, too. All these things are good things.
This second table breaks the met result information into the two main circuits. Peruse the
numbers at your leisure to note that once again, the latest PFS test results (pink) show
consistent improvement on the PEA data in the first four lines (white), but this also gives a clear
indication of how most silver reports to the lead (Pb) circuit. These are also high quality concs,
with concentrations of 60% and 70% from the Pb circuit and a steady 50%+ for the Zn circuit.
24

Expect a small flurry of Canadian brokerage coverage on DSV to appear in the days to come,
useful timing for the pre-PDAC period. According to DSV IR, the visit went well and their guests
were suitably impressed with the development track and on a simple visual level, the sheer
scale of the Cordero project as well as the larger property with its several satellite targets, now
generated and subject to exploration drilling.
A new TSX index
Timed for June 1st, the Canadian TSX market last week announced the launch of its new
“Battery Metals Index” and while a good idea, a look
at the top of the weightings list shows the focus of the
list as predominately copper and zinc, rather than a
wider range of “future facing metals”. Check the full
list out here (22), this visual brings you the top 14
stocks of the total of 40 included in the index:
Once you get past Dundee Precious Metals and its
1.185X weighting, component weights slowly taper
down to 0.9X or so. You’ll also see the big jump in
weightings between Capstone (9.093) and Filo (1.426)
on the list, so it’s fair to say the TSX has biased this
index heavily to the top eleven stocks. Of those,
there’s an awful lot of copper and zinc and while large,
diversified producers such as Teck and Lundin will sell
other metals to the world (cobalt, gold, silver, etc) the
bias towards Cu and Zn is obvious. Most importantly,
the lithium exposure in this index is glaringly absent.
So while a good idea and initiative, the TSX is going to
have to evolve this index in them quarters to come to
make it interesting and relevant to ESG-centric
investors.
Conclusion
IKN681 is done, we end with bullet points:
 Not your problem but mine, this has been a difficult and frustrating weekly to write as
I’ve been plagued with ever-worsening computer issues for the last four or five days,
with today Sunday worst of all. The nice technician man is coming round tomorrow and
hopefully all will be fixed by this time next weekend, at which time I’ll write the note on
the madness of Peru politics that I was going to do this weekend. The hours lost
25

fighting technology got in the way.
 On balance, Colombia’s outlook is almost as bad for mining as it was before last week’s
round one election. Avoid.
 However, do not avoid the excellent value on offer in trades such as Minera Alamos
(MAI.v) which put in a good quarter, Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v) on the cusp of its key permit
award and fully funded for the Fenix build, or Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) which
currently offers a ridiculously favourable risk/reward balance.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stocks are Minera Alamos (MAI.v) and
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v). Flash updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best wishes, Mark
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birds_Aren%27t_Real
(2) https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-june-3-2022-111552199.html
(3) https://mineraalamos.com/news/2022/santana-gold-project-operations-update/
(4) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MnSuzcSoxqQ
(5) https://qccopper.com/news/qc-copper-gold-continues-to-convert-waste-into-mineralization-with-over-20-new-in-pit-
intersections/
(6) http://www.amerigoresources.com/investors/share-buybacks/
(7) https://www.mining.com/copper-price-jumps-on-chinas-move-to-revive-the-economy/
(8) https://news.metal.com/newscontent/101850745/china-weekly-inventory-summary-and-data-wrap-jun-2
(9) https://www.c3metals.com/c3-metals-acquires-100-of-flagship-jasperoide-copper-gold-project-peru/
(10) https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2022/05/31/2452857/0/en/Gold-Fields-to-Acquire-Yamana-Gold-a-
Combination-for-Long-term-Value-Creation-Focused-on-Quality-Growth-Financial-Discipline-and-Shareholder-
Returns.html
(11) https://www.signatureresources.ca/news-media/news-releases/2022/signature-resources-ltd-announces-results-of-
2022-annual-general--special-meeting-of-shareholders-and-grant-of-stock-options
(12) https://www.eltiempo.com/elecciones-2022/presidencia/nueva-encuesta-de-intencion-de-voto-a-la-segunda-vuelta-
presidencial-677733
(13) https://www.semana.com/nacion/articulo/atencion-se-aprieta-la-competencia-por-la-presidencia-segun-cnc-
gustavo-petro-449-y-rodolfo-hernandez-41/202206/
(14) https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=COP&view=1M
(15) https://elcomercio.pe/mundo/latinoamerica/elecciones-colombia-2022-el-exito-de-la-campana-de-rodolfo-
hernandez-le-bastara-tiktok-para-ganar-la-segunda-vuelta-gustavo-petro-noticia/
(16) https://www.infobae.com/america/colombia/2022/06/03/parecen-petristas-y-lo-que-no-me-pueden-preguntar-es-
estupideces-respuestas-de-rodolfo-hernandez-que-causaron-rechazo/
(17) https://diariocriterio.com/rodolfo-hernandez-acusacion-corrupcion/
(18) https://www.wradio.com.co/2022/06/03/rodolfo-hernandez-tiene-otro-proceso-judicial-tras-denuncias-de-
sindicatos/s
26

(19) https://www.elzorronortino.cl/eventos-y-entretencion/camara-minera-de-chile-realizara-webinar-mineria-y-nueva-
constitucion-certeza-o-incertidumbre/
(20) https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_mzjA_YMJSS6a9TX-5rvqnQ
(21) https://radiodon.com.ar/2022/06/03/empresa-pampeana-comenzo-a-exportar-su-produccion-a-chile/
(22) https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/toronto-stock-exchange-announces-launch-of-s-amp-p-tsx-battery-metals-
index-885383049.html
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Set-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Abr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Ago-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Set-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Ene-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Set-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Ene-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Set-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Ago-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Abr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Set-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Abr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Set-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-ago-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-ene-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-abr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-abr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-ene-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-ene-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-abr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-abr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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