6 The IKN Weekly, issue 680 — May 30, 2022
The IKN Weekly
Week 680, May 29th 2022
Contents
This Week: In Today’s edition, Memorial Day Monday and BLS jobs Friday, Birds Aren’t Real.
Fundamental Analysis: Superior Gold (SGI.v) 1q22 financials and resource update.
Stocks to Follow: Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v), Minera Alamos (MAI.v), Electra Battery Materials
(ELBM.v), Discovery Silver (DSV.v), Newcore Gold (NCAU.v), Amerigo Resources (ARG.to),
Chesapeake Gold (CKG.v), Palamina Corp (PA.v).
Copper Basket: Overview, Copper Mountain (CMMC.to), Oroco Resources (OCO.v), Regulus
Resources (REG.v), C3 Metals (CCCM.v).
Producer Basket: Overview, Sandstorm Gold (SAND) (SSL.to).
TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Aurelius Minerals (AUL.v), Infield (INFD.v), Kingfisher Metals
(KFR.v).
Regional Politics: The Colombia Presidential election Round One result, Brazil: Lula moves
further ahead, Peru: Another cabinet re-shuffle, Chile: Standard pro-mining government
protocol is not a bad thing.
Market Watching: Starcore (SAM.to) arbitrage opportunity, continued.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
In Today’s Edition
The cat is among the pigeons in Colombia! We featured the rise of wild card
Presidential candidate Rodolfo Hernández in last week’s edition, tonight the news is
that the populist independent right wing candidate has pipped the “establishment right”
Fico Gutiérrez for second place and goes to the run off with today’s vote winner, the
left wing Gustavo Petro. Many are now calling Hernández favourite for the June 19th
run-off vote, we walk you through the need-to-know in today’s Regional Politics section
and arrive at “all to play for” as a conclusion. One thing’s for sure; whatever the result,
we won’t know for sure until it’s over.
The numbers returned by Superior Gold (SGI.v) last week were…well, Superior. Its
1q22 financials beat on both revenues and costs, giving a modest net profit where your
author would have been happy to eat a small quarterly loss. On the same day, it gave
us its new reserves and resources update that has benefited greatly from the new
brains trust at the company under the impressive CEO, Chris Jordaan. All that, plus
word on SGI’s live webinar scheduled for tomorrow where you can get the good news
from the horse’s mouth, is in our main fundies section this week.
There are other things as well, with brief look-see updates on several exploreco
companies we cover that filed their quarters on the week.
Memorial Day USA Monday and BLS jobs Friday
A brief reminder to one and all that tomorrow Monday May 30th sees The USA celebrate
Memorial Day, which means its stock markets are closed for the day. Though Canada (and the
1
others) are open as per normal, when the NYSE and Nasdaq are closed it normally means
reduced volume trading on the TSX/V. Also, if you see some outlier-type trading go on in any of
your small issue Canadian stocks tomorrow it may “games that they play”.
Moving on, Friday June 3rd pre-open sees the US BLS Employment Report for May, though we
should have a decent clue as to its contents on Thursday when two minor employment reports
are published, so watch out for pre-emptive moves on the BLS number that day. At the
moment and according to the ever-reliable Bill McBride at Calculated Risk (1) the BLS headlines
are forecast at +320k NFP and a headline unemployment rate of 3.5%. However and in-line
with recent months, market watchers are bound to dig down into the data for clues on wage
inflation pressures
Birds Aren’t Real
Mailbag fielded last week from this esteemed audience included a couple of gripes on Friday on
how the broad market for stocks had had a good week, but metals and mining stocks had
failed to take advantage and spent the week treading water. Which is fair enough I suppose,
but as this ten-day chart shows…
…what we saw was the broad markets playing catch-up to the mining complex, so let’s consider
why that might be. While NOT droning on about gold and inflation last week, we observed the
latest warnings from the Fed on forward policy that, while nothing new, underscored what was
in the pipeline
“Last week was the Fed repeating “We’re not joking about interest rates”, which
allowed gold and the metals complex (here GDX and spot copper) to break away from
the negative pull of the broad markets for the first time in a while and hold onto gains
when other US macro data (housing starts, retail earnings) came in soft.”
Despite that, Wall ST “bought the dip” last week, in action was that speaks of a market willing
yo fight the Fed, so maybe the Jay Powell forgot to tell the world “No, seriously, we are not
joking” a third time, because maybe the attention spans nurtured by MTV back in the 1980s
have finally come home to roost, creating their own reality among today’s thought leaders
(term used loosely). as the cycle of economic data is part of the issue, as we’re three weeks
from the last FOMC meeting and two and a half from the next, scheduled for June 14th and
15th. That’s enough time for alternative consensus to build that decides to ignore reality and
indeed, this desk witnessed high-traffic mining thought leaders (another term used loosely, for
fear of oxymoron) telling the public that the Fed wouldn’t prosecute on its threats of sharp rate
increases. Why on Earth should people think that? How many times do we need to hear a Fed
chief say that during his tenure, he won’t stop and wait at the natural inflation rate and that if
recession ensues well…hard luck. There are two trading weeks between us and the next FOMC,
enough time for market consensus to shift again and sentiment to go back toward reality. In
fact, the thought leaders trotting out their nonsense are probably banking on their audience
forgetting about this stupidity before time (and what’s more, they’re probably right to do so).
However their Fed-Fighting will be limited as we’re also set for clearer roadmap of Fed plans.
2
Unlike the May meeting, the June committee also publishes the “Summary of Economic
Projections” (SEP) from its members, normally presented to the world in graphic form, a.k.a.
“the Dot Plot”. So between this Friday and the US BKLS jobs report and the date with hard data
Fed in mid-June, we get to find out whether the current bout of market conjecture about Jay
Powell chickening out on rate hikes (e.g. Rick Rule) stacks up against people who put their own
money on the line, not just the cash of their audience, for example Bill Ackman:
“..more aggressive action, including multiple 50 basis point rate hikes, a higher neutral
rate, and a faster pace of balance sheet reduction, will likely be required to combat
inflation and mitigate the risk of a wage-price spiral.”
On his widely reported client call Monday, Ackman said that the alternative to higher rates
would be a market crash. For sure hardcore goldbugs would whoop for joy if the crash came
along but hey, they are like that. The rest of us in normal world are careful what we wish for.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Superior Gold (SGI.v) 1q22 financials and resource update
On Wednesday May 25th our preferred junior gold producer until Minera Alamos goes
commercial, Superior Gold (SGI.v), published two NRs (2) (3). One announced the filing of its
1q22 financial results, the other brought us the much-anticipated news of its (and let’s quote
the NR in question) “updated Mineral Resource and Mineral Reserve estimates as at December
31, 2021, for its Plutonic Gold Operations located in Western Australia, which is comprised of
the 100%-owned Plutonic underground and open pit gold mines, 100%-owned Hermes, and
80%-owned Hermes South open pit projects along with the Company's interest in the Bryah
Basin joint venture.” Both were significant NRs and we’re taking today’s main fundies section to
walk through the news, but before we get to the number crunch there’s admin work and
background to do.
Last week also saw SGI improve its company marketing, something that should continue in the
week ahead, specifically tomorrow Monday May 30th at 12 midday EST when the team is
presenting live on the 6ix webinar platform (get your free ticket here (4)) We can expect the
brand new corporate video presentation was published to YouTube last week will form part of
tomorrow’s show. If not you can find it here (5) and to pre-empt, it’s rare that a five minute
video on mining capture as much insight as this one does.
Another rarity is seeing a mining promo video that captures my own attention, but SGI’s is the
type of show that would have convinced me to buy shares if I’d been sitting on the fence (or
even new to the story, so be warned before clicking through, non-owners ). Even though it’s
highly recommended viewing for all subscribers of The IKN Weekly, your author is also a real-
world anal yst and aware not everyone will bother searching out and watching it. To wit, I’ve
taken the liberty of putting together a transcript of the main body of the presentation. Once the
intro blurb is done and around minute is off the clock, SGI has already introduced itself, told us
where they operate (Plutonic), how many years the mine has been in operation (many) and the
issues it has for future operations and growth. Due to the longevity of the mine, the company
has a wealth of historical technical information but at the start of CEO Chris Jordaan’s tenure,
the new team also recognized that data was poorly understood and was a principle factor
behind the company’s mining inefficiency and the patchy results from exploration to that date.
They needed better data that would allow them to mine with less waste, improve ore continuity
and predict where they should drill and explore for further mineralized upside. And now I’ll
leave you with the transcript:
Like many other gold mines, the ore has always been manually wireframed. The time-
consuming manual digitization of wireframes was unsustainable for this operation. Not
only was it challenging to incorporate different data types, but the interpretations were
highly subjective and the models were not reproducible. The quality of the interpretation
was highly dependent upon time constraints, and the geologists’ individual modelling skills.
3
Continuing the wireframing method would take far too long to produce the same
inaccurate and unreliable result. But Plutonic has 25 years of geologists working on this
world-class deposit, and that data would help us unlock its full potential.
The archives were opened, and thousands upon thousands of face maps, core photos and
drill holes were re-assessed for critical structural data, that would later inform a new and
efficient modelling technique at Plutonic. Leapfrog Geo gave geologists the foundation to
use structural data to a higher fidelity. The software was able to consolidate and process
55,000 unique structural measurements, producing an interpretation that was objective
and built on real, tangible evidence. The form interpretations created from structural
measurements produced a complex geological interpretation, and put the gold on the right
mineralization trend. Grade control detail could now be incorporated into one resource
model for the entire mine. They could be updated and re-run dynamically as the data was
collected, improving the planning and scheduling of activities, and allowed the capital to be
reinvested at the right time. The mine was divided into resource columns that would house
more than one thousand iterations over the last two years, that could easily be
documented, accessed and revised through sequence central, and ultimately provide
Plutonic with an excellent platform to create low cost, organic growth. This new modelling
technique allowed our geologists to spend more time doing real geology. We’re now able
to produce larger, higher quality models with 50% less modelling geologists. Unnecessary
hours in the office can now be spent collecting core and geological data, that will only
increase our ability to predict mineralization trends. Our exploration programs are now
delivering consistent results, not only with gold found at the drill bed, but our ability to
dynamically update geological models as we drill, significantly reducing our drilling costs.
Since 2013, our model reconciliation comparing our estimated model grade to the actual
mill grade, has consistently been negative. From mid-2020, the reconciliation became
positive. Our ability to change this trend allows us to fine-tune our estimation premise
further and reach a new reconciliation. The underground operation has also displayed
significant success, with engineers now able to plan on larger, more detailed and dynamic
models. Production costs are decreasing and total ounces produced are consistently
increasing. Gradual implementation of this new modelling technique has contributed to the
increased quarterly production of 32% and increased stope grades of 30%. This has
allowed Plutonic to pay back debt and increase its total cash position by 167%.
In addition to these results, we are pleased to announce these updated mineral resource
and mineral reserve estimates. Compared to the 2019 update, proven and probable
reserves have increased by 66% to 630,000 oz of contained gold. Measured and Indicated
mineral resources inclusive of mineral reserves increased by 2% to 1.92m oz of contained
gold. And inferred mineral resources have increased by 29% to 3.97m oz of contained
gold. We are confident this subjective approach to mineral resource estimation is an
improved indicator of the future opportunities at Plutonic, and is continued evidence that
Plutonic is a large, mineralized system with long-term potential at current assumptions.”
The result of all this data work has shown its worth most recently in two ways, firstly the
resource update and the above transcript gives the crib notes on the main numbers. We’ll get
to those in a moment, but before that we turn our attention to the fruits of this new efficiency
as seen in its quarterly results. First up, here’s a reminder of the production and sales numbers
at, with the 1q22 numbers pre-announced by SGI in April, and considered in IKN675, dated
April 18th in the note “Adding Superior Gold (SGI.v)”, the week I bought my shares. This chart
also features preliminary adjusted production estimates for the rest of the year:
SGI gold production and sales
4
40522
73932
00971
99881
05861
63551 29451 55851
83571
99091 28291
34112
32851
00002
00022
00052 30000
27500
25000
22500
20000
17500
15000
12500
10000
7500
5000
2500
0
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 tse22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
Oz Au
Au prod
Au sold
source: SGI data
We knew 1q22 had been soft, with 16,817oz gold produced and 15,823 oz sold, due mostly to
the planned servicing shutdown during the quarter. Back then we ran the numbers and
expected SGI to file a “breakeven quarter” (in fact, a slight net loss) but were still keen on
buying, as the main attraction at this stock is what will happen in the second half of 2022
onward, rather than today. However and since then, the news recently out of SGI (see IKN679,
last weekend) that Covid continues to drag on the company’s day-to-day operations in Q2,
coupled with updated corporate projections of a faster run rate as 2022 becomes 2023, brings a
couple of changes. We now assume:
20,000 oz gold produced/sold in the current 2q22, down from 22koz
22,000 oz produced/sold in 3q22, unchanged from the previous model
25,000 oz produced/sold in 4q22, up 3,000 oz from the previous model
As SGI is still modelling to make its guidance of between 80k oz and 90k oz this year and our
new total forecast comes to 81k oz and change, this fits. As for received prices, in 1q22 those
came in well with SGI reporting U$1,910/oz. From that, we’ve cut our estimated received
average for the rest of FY22 from U$1,900/oz to U$1,850/oz as seen in the chart below:
SGI: Avg received Au price vs AISC, per qtr
2100
2000
1900
1800
1700
1600
1500
1400
1300
1200
1100
1000
900
800
5
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 tse22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
U$/oz
AISC/oz
realized gold price
NB: CUT DOWN Y-AXIS source: SGI
We’ve also made upward revisions to AISC/oz for the rest of the year, taking our cue from the
U$1,729/oz reported in 1q22 however, this is a conservative move and costs may come in lower
than our new guesstimates as production ramps up.
On the subject of costs, despite the cost hike the numbers were still better than expected in
1q22. As SGI is a remote “FIFO” (fly-in, fly-out) operation that spends a lot of its money on the
necessary infrastructure, long-lead supply lines and human resources required to run such a
mine, in recent quarters its costs profile has been one of the more predictable of the companies
covered at The IKN Weekly, past or present. It therefore came as a pleasant surprise to see
SGI operating income come in at $1.441m, compared to our forecast of a $0.9m loss.
SGI: Revenues and operating earnings, per qtr
870.3- 92.2- 803.4- 619.3-
411.1 324.0- 793.0-
548.1-
412.2 927.2 826.3
489.5
144.1 5.5 2.6
8.11
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 tse22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
U$m
Revenues Op income
source: company filings
The small but significant beat was due to two main factors. Revenues came in a little over
$0.9m higher than expectations thanks to a good average received price for gold (they
managed to average U$1,910/oz).
SGI: Revenues vs Costs
6
4.92 5.13 6.13 3.33 6.62 8.92 0.82 0.82 5.62 7.32 0.52 2.42 2.72 6.52 4.72 1.72 2.13 9.62 4.43 5.92 2.43 3.82 8.73 4.92
2.03 7.62
0.73
0.92
7.04
0.23
3.64
0.23
50
45
40
35
30
25
20 15
10
5
0
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 tse22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
U$m
Revenues COGS
source: company filings
That was a temporary bonus, but the best news came from the COGS line, as costs at
$26.691m were over $1.4m lower than our estimate. Put those together and a small loss
became a small operating profit. After that and to run through the lower parts of the profit and
loss, our “other” guesstimate nearly $1m higher than reality and instead of paying a modest
amount of tax, SGI booked an aggregate $0.143m rebate. The result was a net profit of
$1.424m when we’d expected a slight loss of $2.5m:
SGI: Operating, pre-tax and net earnings
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 tse22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
U$m
Op income
pre-tax income
Net income
source: SGI filings
That’s the story of 1q22’s P+L, we now invite readers to check out those last three charts again
and consider the effect of the expected improvement in production through the second hald of
2022, with particular emphasis on 4q22. SGI has forecast production to ramp as it goes through
the gears, accesses higher grading material and gets its workforce headcount back up to 100%
(assuming the current Covid productivity glitch is temporary). The target is to leave 2022 and
run into 2023 at a production rate of
25,000/oz per quarter and now it has a
SGI: operating income and net income per share
0.10
better handle on grade, continuity and all 0.09
0.08
those good things, costs should stay
0.07
under control. That leaves the final 0.06
0.05
variable of the gold price, but as long as 0.04
0.03
that plays ball and SGI can receive an 0.02
0.01
average of U$1,850/oz for the rest of the
0.00
year, the profits really start rolling in as -0.01
-0.02
seen above. Also here below, as on a per- -0.03
-0.04
share basis operating profits are forecast -0.05
at 9.5c per share per quarter, or around
6.5c/EPS/qtr. That translates to a forward
EPS of 3.2X (and a crazy 2.3X on
operating earnings) and the main reason why I am long this stock. Put simply: all SGI has to
do is deliver on guidance and it will stand out as a cheap stock.
To tie off the 1q22 financials we check in on the balance sheet items and while there’s nothing
dramatic to report this time around, the charts are available and worth a mention. We start with
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 tse22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
U$
Op Inc/share
net EPS
source: SGI filings, IKN ests
the overview assets and liabilities visuals, with liabilities looking nastier than they are due to a
permanently inflated accounts payable line item in the current liabilities (its FIFO operational
nature means it will not go away) and a large provisions in the long-term liabilities, due to the
escrow on closure costs that is not an issue as long as the mine keeps going. And it will.
Meanwhile over at assets, they came in almost exactly as expected in IKN675.
SGI: Assets
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Here we check out cash and working capital to assure the world that SGI has the liquidity
required to keep operations running smoothly. It does.
In fact, working capital managed to improve slightly (thanks to lower currents than my model
expected) and shares out stand at just over 123m. We
expect that to move to 126m soon, with a few
derivatives becoming whole.
And that covers up the 1q22 numbers and while SGI
didn’t blow the roof off, it did do better than expected
and there’s real evidence to suggest its claims of new
efficiencies from the data room are making a real
difference in its operational numbers. I was particularly
impressed by its $26.691m costs number, the lowest
since 3q20 when the costs world was a very different
place. With 2022 production always biased to the back
end of the year, as long as 2q22 only sees a modest hit to original guidance from the ongoing
Covid-19 issues in Western Australia, SGI should be able to keep to the script, deliver its annual
guidance number and accelerate into 3q22 and 4q22. As long as gold does its part and remains
strong at market, you’ll want to be fully positioned in SGI before that happens.
We now move to the new reserve and resource estimates and we’re bound to hear a lot more
about the techniques and data crunching used to reach these numbers in tomorrow’s webinar
(in which I will be asking mostly about 2q22 guidance), but here we can cover the major points.
We now offer you the three main tables in last week’s NR, starting with the reserves numbers:
7
61q4 71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 tse22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
U$m fixed SGI: Liabilities Breakdown per qtr
other current
cash & eq 80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
source: SGI filings
61q4 71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 tse22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
U$m
LT liab
current liab
source: company filings
40 SGI: Cash treasury per qtr
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
61q4 71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 tse22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
source: company filings/IKN ests
srallod
fo
snoillim
30 SGI: Working Capital per qtr
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 tse22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
source company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
SGI: Shares Out 140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
61q4 71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 tse22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
source: company filings
serahs
fo
snoillim
SGI: Milled gold average grade, per qtr
4.2
4
3.8
3.6
3.4
3.2
3
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
2
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1
8
61q4 71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1
The totals on this chart may be the smallest, but for me it’s the most impressive. To the left, we
see the 2019 Proven and Probable Mineral Reserve count (P+P) and to the right, the newly
updated numbers and the underground (UG)
g/t Au
numbers are the big beneficiary. There’s no
stope grade mined
surprise about see the grade drop, after all SGI
grade milled
has consistently delivered underground head
grades lower than the 2019 reserves report so
there was clearly something amiss with using
classic wireframe models. Instead, the modest
drop in overall grade (3.7 g/t Au) has come
with a near-doubling of reserve tonnage
(5.15mt), enough to keep the UD portion of this source: company filings
mine going for at least nine years at current run
rates and with better understanding of vein
continuity, mine dilution should drop as well.
These reserves are also reported at a very reasonable long-term gold price of U$1,462/oz, the
type of assumption that makes for robust economics and mine plan continuity going forward.
Moving to the new Measured and Indicated (M+I) resource, we again have the old on the left
and the new numbers to the right:
These M+I numbers include the above reserves, which means that as the overall totals haven’t
changed much, what we’ve seen is mineral move up in the confidence scale (as well as getting
two years of mining fully replaced). Meanwhile, the bulk of open-pit gold is held in M+I
resource and that makes a lot of sense, as that tends to get confirmed as the mining takes
place from ongoing definition drilling. That cut-off is 0.4 g/t Au and suggests the open pit runs
on a mine cash cost of around U$17/tonne. That sounds about right, and also means that the
more pre-strip work that gets done on the open pit, the better for future costs and as SGI has
been doing just that in the last couple of quarters, we are probably moving into a “harvest”
phase for this part of its operations. Finally, we also have an inferred resource table to
consider:
Here we see the future potential of Plutonic, particularly its underground operations and if they
now have a better handle on the mineral structures (as CEO Jordaan claims), they clearly have
plenty of cloth left to cut at this mine. While they are going to mine many of these ounce sin
the next couple of years, the inferred total shows how large this system is and underscores the
confident claims from management on how they can up tonnage throughput and move to
150,000oz year operation and then beyond.
But all that is for the future. Today we get to report on a company that’s clearly getting its
wheels in line and if it weren’t for the current Covid roadbump in WA, we’d already be
confidently predicting a bounceback quarter form what was likely its worst quarterly
performance of the year (or last year). Instead, we do allow some caution on what to expect in
2q22, but the real reason to be long this stock is for what it’s going to do in the second half of
2022, then in future years. These days, SGI is financially solid and being run the right way by
serious and forward-thinking mining talent. As long as gold plays ball, anything under a Loonie
is a knockdown bargain. Happy holder.
Stocks to Follow
A consolidation week for mining companies. While the larger caps did so with slight rises (see
Producer Basket), the companies further down the food chain did so by flat-lining on the week.
The basic headcount of four winners (ARG.to, SGI.v, APN.v, ELBM.v), two unchanged stocks
(PA.v, WRN.to) and eleven losers (the others) does no justice to the overall dynamic either, as
the majority of losers on the week were down just a penny or a percentage point. Not a week
to forget, simply a week in which the juniors sub-sector took stock of its place in the wider
market, trying to decide what to do next.
The lack of movement means the overall performance of our list is still crummy, with the same
count as last weekend of just three open positions in the green and 14 in the red. Solace comes
from holding some cash in treasury to take advantage if deep bargain prices show again, plus
of course knowing that in the event of a market rebound, plenty of the lines would go green
quickly. Juniors are like that.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.58 181.0% $1.14 tgt, #1 idea on FY22 dev
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v STR BUY C$0.83 22-Apr-18 C$0.53 -31.3% $1.30 tgt May22 permit catalyst
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Amerigo Res ARG.to STR BUY C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.70 24.3% $2..40 tgt on FY22 guidance
Discovery Silver DSV.v HOLD C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.38 -21.5% Top Ag play, 1st tgt $2.75
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v SPEC BUY C$0.275 25-Apr-21 C$0.21 -20.0% Now drilling. Easy hold
Superior Gold SGI.v STR BUY C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.82 -17.9% Au prod jr, right place/time
Element 29 ECU.v HOLD C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.37 -35.3% Cu exploreco w/ 2 Peru assets
SPECULATIVE TRADES
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v SPEC BUY C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$2.72 -10.1% Au leverage, small trade so far
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v HOLD C$0.72 16-May-21 C$0.76 12.5% May sell on NR window
Palamina Corp PA.v SPEC BUY C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.15 -49.2% Au expl in S.Peru
Altiplano Metals APN.v SPEC BUY C$0.31 17-Sep-21 C$0.245 -22.6% Cheap entry, plan on track.
Minera IRL MIRL.cse hold C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.09 -53.8% CEO change will move stock
THREE TRADE IDEAS FROM IKN670, March 2022 (originally five)
Newcore Gold NCAU.v HOLD C$0.51 20-Mar-22 C$0.38 -18.6% tracking IKN670 idea
Electra Battery ELBM.v SPEC BUY C$5.31 20-Mar-22 C$4.98 -7.9% tracking IKN670 idea
Western Copper WRN.to SPEC BUY C$2.41 20-Mar-22 C$2.17 -10.0% tracking IKN670 idea
9
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.67 6-Dec-20 C$0.56 -14.9% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v May'22 C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.33 -21.4% sold to reduce Ag exposure
Strategic Metals SMD.v May'22 C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.30 -28.6% trade flatlined 1-5 years
2015 to 2021 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for a few notes on covered companies:
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v): To the downside, it’s now clear that Rio2 is going to miss its original
deadline on permitting and not receive its key EIA and “Certificate of Activities” (RCA) permit by
the end of May 2022. Normally this would be an issue, today it’s not so bad and for two reasons
(in fact, three):
1) The changeover of government in Chile may have delayed its ministerial processes
slightly, but overall the mining sector in Chile must be pleased, relieved or both that the
handover has gone smoothly and into largely pro-mining hands. There are no purely
political reasons to suppose opposition to an advanced permitting track and as we’ve
seen from neighbours Kinross at La Coipa, the first pour from that new mine in March
shows Chile is open for new business.
2) We have reason to believe that the permit won’t be delayed much longer. Last week,
your author spoke with people close to the story and was told that the project was
being processed by the relevant public authorities and that everything was in order. It’s
merely a question of time and while the delay is a nuisance, the company cannot see it
dragging any further than June or July.
The third reason is that Rio2 Ltd is a serious company. Its people don’t throw sequins in eyes,
its technical team is first rate, its financial backing is assured and if there were the potential of
a late reversal or disappointment, we would have heard something by now. It’s worth repeating
(until blue in the face if necessary) that the Fenix project is not only fully-funded, but is funded
by top-drawer entities such as BNPP and WPM (compare that to the juniors trying to get cash
from Waterton, Sprott Lending or the Canadian brokerage scene). The permits have no
“observations” left to cover and all questions from authorities have been answered to their
satisfaction. What’s left is bureaucracy, no more no less and while frustrating time will heal. By
now it should go without saying that the eventual permit award and the start of mine
construction will be a significant re-rate moment for the stock.
Minera Alamos (MAI.v): On Friday, MAI CEO Ramshaw tells this desk that the company’s
1q22 financials, which should include the first indications of operational revenues and costs etc,
will be filed to SEDAR on Monday. This shouldn’t be a major catalyst for the price, as in general
terms we know the financial situation is healthy and that MAI is now running at least breakeven
on a corporate level. However, the announcement of the 1q22 financials should break the
logjam of newsflow and get us in the mood for the real upcoming milestones, such as the
eventual declaration of commercial production and the 43-101 resource reports on Santana and
Cerro de Oro.
The advice is on this stock is the same as before, own it first and foremost before any other
featured stock here at The IKN Weekly.
Electra Battery Materials (ELBM.v): The two main themes from the NR out of ELBM last
week:
10
1) costs of construction for its stage one plant had risen somewhat, which didn’t surprise
anyone. However, the capex increases don’t seem too onerous from reading between
the lines and as the market is now braced for this type of news from companies, it
didn’t hit the stock price hard.
2) The build-out is on schedule. In fact I’m not quite sure of that and the impression is of
a company that’s stretching its timeline slightly and talking about commissioning
instead of operations in Q4, but again there doesn’t seem to be anything too dramatic.
The other issue for us retail at ELBM is the decision by management to raise capital using an
ATM (At The Market) share sale mechanism to raise capital to the tune of U$20m. I understand
the decision from a business strategy point of view, as ELBM doesn’t need $20m all at once and
a facility such as this means its brokers can sell shares into the open market when conditions
are favourable and at the same time, improve the liquidity of its NASDAQ ticker (there aren’t
that many shares out after the rollback and this type of dynamic start-up needs trading volume
to attract market attention. However, it’s clearly going to provide a cap to upside on the share
price for the duration of the facility, it’s the type of strategy that will sell more shares at times
of upside moves and popularity.
Overall, I’m happy to watch ELBM from the sidelines now that the initial rush of enthusiasm for
the idea has washed through the US listing and for my money, the sweet spot for purchase will
be later in the year when the company is either at or close to plant commissioning.
Discovery Silver (DSV.v): Two things about DSV:
DSV filed its 1q22 financials last week, all in good order
Eric Sprott led the exercising of warrants and a whole bunch of papers have now been
made whole, adding to the share count and company treasury
We’ll do the second one first and here’s the start of the NR, out Friday:
Toronto, Ontario--(Newsfile Corp. - May 27, 2022) - Eric Sprott announces that, today, 2176423
Ontario Ltd. (a corporation he beneficially owns) exercised 9,090,909 common share purchase
warrants (Warrants) of Discovery Silver Corp., at $0.77 per common share (Share) for aggregate
consideration of $7,000,000.
This puts Eric Sprott’s holding at 89,531,045 shares, which is 26.2% of shares out. He also has
another 5.55m in-the-money warrants waiting in the wings.
All this is good. There are another 3m or so of the ITM warrants due exercised at this time
along with those held by Eric Sprott, so we expect DSV’s treasury position to swell by around
$9m and that’s useful money for an exploreco running at full pace toward its next goal, the pre-
feasibility study due at the end of this year.
2) On that subject, the only real news contained in the 1q22 filings came in the MD&A and goes
like this (we quote):
Work on the PFS is advancing well, and the Company remains on schedule to deliver
the study during the fourth quarter of 2022. The metallurgical testwork on the sulphides
is already half complete and is focused on reagent optimization, and the testing of
high-grade samples ranging from 100 – 200 g/t AgEq, in order to confirm the grade
versus recovery variability. The reserve definition drilling will wrap up during the end of
Q2 and the engineering drilling will commence in the coming weeks. We expect the
PFS will continue to incorporate staged expansions of the processing facility and will
look to optimize the mining rates early in the mine life, as well as the timing and size of
the oxides/heap leach project to maximize capital efficiency.
That says all the right things, with details and emphasis on the ongoing metallurgy work (we
remind readers that CEO Taj Singh is a met guy and very hot on this subject, he knows how
important it is) as well as confirmation that the timeline is on schedule and the PFS should
arrive during 4q22. As for a check on the company financials, here’s a run-through of the basic
information:
11
C$m DSV.v: Operation expenses
14
other exp
12 Share payments
10 prof fees
G&A
8
Exploration
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
1q182q183q184q181q192q193q194q191q202q203q204q201q212q213q214q211q22
source: company filings
Exploration was again the biggest cash drain and for more details…
DSV: Exploration costs breakdown
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
12
81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1
all other exploration
Cordero Driling
source: company filings
…$3.74m of the $7.13m total. The proportion of “non drilling burn” went up, mainly due to the
“mapping, sampling, assays” line item, which came to $1.1m in 1q22 and reflects the increased
amount spent on met work, so all good. We also saw DSV spending $100k on the outlaying
“Minerva” and “Puerto Rico” targets, which may augur things to come however, drilling still
takes the lion’s share of cash burn and it’s notable how much DSV has put directly in the
ground since 3q20 ($26.17m, to be exact).
Not offering you many other charts as the financials were generally uneventful and in-line for
the quarter, but you do get cash assets (below left), including treasury, $15m in a time deposit
and $1m and bits of “other”. Also confirmation of working capital at $61.667m, more than
enough to get them through the 4q22 PFS milestone and long into 2023.
DSV.v: Cash assets, per qtr
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Cash will benefit from the $9m approx coming in from last week’s warrants exercise, as well. As
for shares out, we won’t know an exact number until the 2q22 filings but the warrants and
options up for exercise should bring the count very close to 350m as at the end of the current
quarter, so we go with that as our estimate. There are a couple of other blocks set for exercise
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1
$m 100 DSV.v: Working Capital per qtr
90
other current
80
cash 70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
source: company filings
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1
source company filings/IKN ests
srallod
fo
snoillim
in Q3, as well
DSV.v: Shares Out
13
440.56 440.56 440.56
17.861
12.112 84.112 23.752
15.992 10.503 49.323 51.523 61.523 53.133 1.333 053 553
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 tse22q2 tse22q3
source: company filings
serahs
fo
snoillim
Overall a solid set of financials from DSV and the company underscored its 2022 was on track
and budget. No issues about funding and while it would have been plain silly for Eric Sprott not
to have exercised warrants for shares worth nearly double their price, that NR also came with
the message that he’s going long-term in this position and is unlikely to dump any of this big
holding (or “give them to charity”, as he does his losers). A final word: We understand DSV is
holding an anal yst site visit this week so watch out for any new buzz from the coverage that
may ensue.
Newcore Gold (NCAU.v): There has been a
persistent seller of NCAU during the recent
downleg, that was on show last week as the
stock failed to rebound and then on Thursday,
hit a quick price pothole on volume.
That’s the pattern of an insto liquidating and
may have been the end of the selling, so a
quiet Friday isn’t such a bad thing under the
circumstances. I know that NCAU believe this
is a great time to buy the stock and consider
under 40c as a real bargain basement price
and while I agree, I personally want to keep
powder dry and will stay on the sidelines.
Amerigo Resources (ARG.to): A big block sale went through on Friday at $1.71, which was
also the limit date for the dividend so somebody
was keen on picking up that 3c/share cash
award on the 2.3m block. We know Michael
Luzich of Luzich Partners has been a big seller
recently and earlier in the week, dripped
another 38k out to leave his position at just
over 12.6m shares, so it may have been him.
Meanwhile, shareholders of record can now
expect their next 3c/share dividend to come
through next month. Also, this time next
weekend we should have the data on ARG’s
May 2022 buybacks and with no blackout
period this month, expect the total to be close
to the 1.6m shares the company bought back in
March. With copper prices holding the U$4.20/lb line well, the ARG dividend and buyback
policies will put a strong line under the share price so let us be clear, the current share price is
still a raging bargain compared to nearly any other dividend-paying mining company out there.
Nothing cheaper in the copper space today.
Chesapeake Gold (CKG.v): CKG was another of the myriad of juniors that reported its 1q22
last week, its numbers filed on Thursday. In this case you get just two tracking charts to show
the tightly-run nature of this company.
CKG.v: Operating expenses
2.6
2.4
2.2
2
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
14
81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1
C$m
other
share based comp
prof fees
mgmt fees
G&A
Exploration
source: CGK filings
Operating expenses at CKG continue to be bare bones as the company concentrates on its
column leaching tests. Then below, the working
cap position (which is basically the same as cash 50 CKG.v: Working Capital per qtr
45
position, due to the lack of liabilities) of C$31.13m
40
is very healthy and gives the company more than 35
enough to start its projected drill program in Q4 30
and stay funded all next year, too. 25
20
15
Trading continued to be by appointment and the 10
ticker didn’t even open on Friday. Down four 5
0
cents, which means nothing. CKG at these prices
is at a long-term floor level and very buyable in
theory, but trying to buy more than 5k shares at a
time isn’t easy.
Palamina Corp (PA.v): After due internal debate, PA decided to put two more holes into its
Usicayos project in the Puno Orogenic Belt
before moving the man-portable drill off site.
Those two holes, put in the “Vetas” zone of
Usicayos to the North-East of the first phase in
late 2021, are now complete and the core is at
the lab. We remind readers that the first phase
got sniffs of good mineralization without hitting
anything worthy, so the last two holes are
designed to either kill the specific project zone or
give it new life. CEO Andrew Thomson tells this
desk that the two holes were both completed to
the company’s satisfaction at 200m, which
combined its position lower down the hill (closer
to the river, as seen on this map) indicates they
had less cover rock to get through to reach the
interesting stuff.
So we await assay news on these two holes,
however it’s worth noting that its large land
position in the Puno Orogenic Belt offers a lot
more interesting drill targets, the problem to date has been getting its program permitted by
Peru’s bureaucracy (one permit application is complete, with no issues but for some reason has
been on hold for at least six months).
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 tse22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
source company filings
srallod
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The Copper Basket
After twenty-one weeks of 2022, The Copper Basket shows a loss of 27.44% level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/22 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Copper Mtn CMMC.to 3.42 210.166 565.35 2.69 -21.3%
2 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.77 88.118 338.37 3.84 1.9%
3 Western Copper WRN.to 2.00 151.451 328.65 2.17 8.5%
4 Oroco Res OCO.v 2.04 203.4 258.32 1.27 -37.7%
5 Nevada Copper NCU.to 0.71 448.437 217.49 0.485 -31.7%
6 Hot Chili HCH.v 1.53 109.223 123.42 1.13 -26.1%
7 Meridian Min MNO.to 1.18 153.735 115.30 0.75 -36.4%
8 Regulus Res. REG.v 1.06 101.845 101.85 1.00 -5.7%
9 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.84 114.495 87.02 0.76 -9.5%
10 Kutcho Copper KC.v 0.88 103.94 42.10 0.405 -54.0%
11 Doré Copper DCMC.v 0.79 66.123 39.67 0.60 -24.1%
12 C3 Metals CCCM.v 0.16 645.379 38.72 0.06 -62.5%
13 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.58 79.24 29.32 0.37 -36.2%
14 QC Copper QCCU.v 0.34 129.06 25.81 0.20 -38.2%
15 Coast Copper COCO.v 0.13 41.335 3.31 0.08 -38.5%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg -27.44%
The Copper Basket average lost 1.37% on the The Copper Basket 2022, weekly evolution
5%
week, product of eight losers (OCO.v, MARI.to, 0%
NCU.to, CCCM.v, ALDE.v, KC.v, ECU.v, QCCU.v) -5%
beating out five winners (CMMC.to, MNO.to, -10%
HCH.v, REG.v, DCMC.v) with two stocks -15%
remaining unchanged on the week (WRN.to, -20%
COCO.v). In much the same way as There were -25%
-30%
only two double figure percentages movers and
-35%
both were to the downside, namely C3 Metals
(CCCM.v down 20.0%) and Kutcho Copper (KC.v
down 15.6%). In broadstroke terms, we saw the
same phenomenon in the copper space as we did
in precious metals, as the bigcap stocks had a moderately positive week while our smaller-cap
and exploreco copper focus stocks as seen here in The Copper Basket lagged the bigboys. The
visual on this is the chart right, with the copper
producer ETF COPX doing better than the
metal, or gold.
Copper-the-metal finished the week with buyers
moving it back up from whence it came and in
this ten day chart, the progress from the recent
dump bottom is clear. Copper has held the
U$4.20/lb line with reasonable ease.
15
ts1naJ ht9naJ ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6bef ht31 ht02 ht72 ht6raM ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3rpA ht01 ht71 ht42 ts1yam ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92
source: IKN calcs
I thought about ignoring Davos completely in this edition but temptation got the better of me
and what’s more, it’s a snappy quote for our curated copper comments section. ERG is a big
metals trading house and moves plenty of copper across the European continent, their guys
know what they are talking about and this is what its CEO had to say for himself in a small
Swiss village on Wednesday (6):
DAVOS, Switzerland, May 25 (Reuters) - Years of under-investment in mining of
metals essential to energy transition, supply shocks and high energy prices will
continue to drive commodity prices higher, Eurasian Resources Group (ERG) Chief
Executive Benedikt Sobotka said on Wednesday.
Combined with COVID-related logistical issues and demand for transparency on
sustainability these factors have brought together "all the ingredients for a perfect
storm in commodity markets," he told the Reuters Global Markets Forum in Davos.
Sobotka said that a commodity super cycle has now begun and will carry on for the
next 30 years, predicting a 20% rise in copper prices by the end of 2022.
That’s a U$5.00/lb copper call for the back end of this year and exactly where this desk pitches,
for the same reasons too. We move to our weekly look at copper inventories with data supplied
as ever by Cochilco and we’ll do the monthly charts next weekend (it was a toss-up on dates)
The aggregate of world copper inventories dropped by a hefty 30,560 metric tonnes
(mt) last week, with Friday’s close total at 270,817mt.
At the SHFE, the already thin stocks dropped by 12,890mt to close at 41,546mt. which
means we’re back scraping the barrel again. This drop comes as Shanghai the city
begins to re-open after its Covid quarantine, an indication of the pent-up demand for
copper that’s now being released.
The LME saw its inventory also dropped, down 18,425mt to close Friday at 156,175mt
and once again, the recent swelling of South Korea stocks saw another quick downleg
of 8,625mt, close on half the total.
The Comex added a modest 755mt to its total, closing at 73,096mt. No biggie.
Here are the dedicated SHFE charts, which bear witness to the new drop in Chinese mainland
copper stocks.
16
Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2014 to date
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
17
31'13ceD dr32 ht02 ht51 ht01 ht5tco ht03 ht52 dn22 ht71 ht21 ht6pes ts1von 5102ht72ced ts12 ht71 ht21 ht7guA dn2tcO ht4ceD ht92 ht62 ts12 ht61 ht01 7102
ht5von
ts13 ht52 dn22 ht42 ht91 ht41 ht9 9102
dr3bef
ts13 ht62 ts12 ht51 ht01 0202ht5naj 0202ts1ram ht62 ts12 ht61 ht11 0202ht6ced ts13 ht82 dr32 ht81 ht21 ht7 2202dn2naj ht72 ht42
Mt Cu
|
source: Cochilco
SHFE copper inventory levels, 2018 to 2022
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
MT Cu 2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
source: Cochilco data
Now for a notes from a couple of basket stocks:
Copper Mountain (CMMC.to): We follow up on last week’s main Fundies note “Revisiting
Copper Mountain (CMMC.to) in light of
recent events” here, as despite having a
soft Monday, this mid-scale copper
producer was the only stock to follow up
COPX while showing reasonable volume at
the same time (slight sidebar: I remain
unimpressed by Doré Copper (DCMC.v) and
am beginning to wonder why I bothered
leaving it on the list this year).
In a perfect world, our fruitfly attention
span market will forget Eva is probably
being shopped to the highest bidder so, if
the copper complex has another downleg
and CMMC gets cheap enough, there may
be a buy window. As noted last weekend,
any deal on Eva is worth up C$1.20 to the equity.
Oroco Resources (OCO.v): In trading, OCO had another soft week and is back at the lows
touched earlier in May, prices last seen in October and November 2020, which must be
frustrating for its loyal longs, However, this isn’t the main reason to mention the stock this
weekend, instead it’s for more general reasons. My thanks to reader ‘DC’, who sent over a link
that I’d missed from the Ororo website. The report “The Pathway for Copper to 2030” by UK
brokerage house RFC Ambrian was published earlier this month and I read it at the time, but as
it’s available on the OCO website for general download you can get your copy too, no fuss and
on this link (7). The report mentions a few projects and companies, but most of the PDF is a
discussion of macro supply and demand data and projections toward (yes, you’ve guessed it)
the year 2030. It’s reasonable reading and contains a reasonably bullish message on copper
too, but RFC Ambrian isn’t as wildly bullish in the near term as other houses (and on that I
happen to disagree, for me they underplay the current supply deficit).
Regulus Resources (REG.v): Thursday brought the latest drill assay from REG and notably
they are now releasing NRs on single holes (so much for the old days when one could take this
company seriously) (8). The assay was rather ho-hum too, despite “…(t)he skarn mineralization
encountered in Hole 47 (being) largely as expected and in line with the drilling completed
around it”, according to CEO John Black in the NR comment. The cut mineralization was typical
of the low-ish grade found in the Sinchao skarn, with the longest length 286.80 m of 0.51%
CuEq (but see the NR for the full details).
We also learned that drilling on the JV zone known as the “Colquirrumi claims” now stands at
4,486.4m. Once hole AK51 is finished and doing the sums, the house guesstimate is that REG
will have around 6,000m into Colquirrumi and this means they are getting close to the trigger
point of 7,500m into the earn-in zone. With that in mind today, we run a reminder of the main
points of this part of the “collaborative agreement.” Once REG has put 7,500m into the
Colquirrumi area, it has the right to exercise its option to increase ownership to 70%. Once REG
triggers that clause, Buenaventura (BVN) has 60 days to decide what it wants to do. It can
either 1) stand pat and retain a 30% ownership, leaving REG with 70%, or 2) BVN can pay REG
U$9m to claw back its 40% and leave the ownership split at 70% BVN and 30% REG. From that
point on, exploration costs will be pro-rata.
That’s the bones of the deal, the reality is that it’s extremely unlikely that BVN will not claw
back its ownership and that means REG gets a highly useful U$9m to add to its treasury. Why is
this desk confident that BVN will claw back and retain 70% ownership? Simply because BVN
knows that land ownership matters more than anything else in this area and as it’s BVN’s literal
home patch, it’s not about to hand over control to a junior it prefers to keep firmly in its pocket.
REG started the year with C$7.8m in treasury and while that’s decent cash, the AntaKori
program is an expensive one to run and under other circumstances, would need to raise via
market apparatus. However, the prospect of receiving U$9m from BVN means REG will likely
get through 2022 and into 2023 without going to market again.
C3 Metals (CCCM.v): The announcement that C3 Metals was going to start drilling its projects
in Jamaica, legacxy properties from the company’s previous iteration before being folded into
the Brian Maher/Kimberly Ann/Fernando Pickmann promo property optioned out of Hochschild,
is all the information one needs about the
future of this company. Simply put, if its
Jamaican projects are so good, why didn’t they
drill them before C3 existed? And why didn’t C3
prioritize them along with the Peru gig? And
while we’re at it, why were the people behind
C3 on the search for a project in South America
in the years prior to the Jasperoide deal?
In trading, CCCM dumped 20% on the week
and was down even further before a late penny
was added on Friday. We should also remind
readers that the next tranche of shares paid to
HOC for the Jasperoide property comes out of
escrow in around three weeks’ time. The chart
shows what happened the first time shares form its holding were freed in February.
18
The Producer Basket
After twenty-one weeks of 2022, the Producer Basket shows a gain of 2.15% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/22 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 62.02 797.44 54.79 68.71 10.8%
2 Barrick GOLD 19.00 1779 36.65 20.60 8.4%
3 Franco-Nevada FNV 138.29 191.192 27.26 142.57 3.1%
4 Agnico Eagle AEM 53.14 454.904 24.59 54.06 1.7%
5 Wheaton PM WPM 42.93 450.3 19.11 42.44 -1.1%
6 Gold Fields GFI 10.99 887.72 10.83 12.20 11.0%
7 Kinross Gold KGC 5.81 1296.5 5.90 4.55 -21.7%
8 B2Gold BTG 3.93 1055.6 4.29 4.06 3.3%
9 Alamos Gold AGI 7.69 392.503 2.98 7.58 -1.4%
10 Sandstorm SAND 6.20 191.4 1.27 6.66 7.4%
All prices and stock quotes in U$ Port. avg 2.15%
Of the ten companies in our 2022 Producer Basket, eight returned week-over-week gains last
week (NEM, FNV, AEM, WPM, GFI, KGC, AGI, SAND) and two were losers over the same period
(GOLD, BTG). Most of the moves were small last week, moving no more than a couple of points
in either direction, except for the outlier Gold Fields (GFI up 6.6%) that finally reacted after its
recent big drop.
The 2022 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
35% comparative to GDX control
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
Once again we did slightly better than the benchmark GDX, so while we’re still behind the
1.72% gap is the closest we’ve been since the very first week of 2022. Recent improvement has
been gradual but constant, the main anchor has been the 1/10th weighting on Kinross and
without that, we’d be ahead of the GDX. More fool me for leaving it in this year.
Sandstorm Gold (SAND) (SSL.to): Another corporate-level deal from SAND(9), as the
company has teamed up with Equinox to propose a spin-out royalty play called Sandbox. All I
see are two companies, SANDF and EQX, slowly raising their own costs by eliminating credit
streams and making new corporate playthings that benefit managerial teams over shareholders.
SAND has become a thorough disappointment of a stock, its people far more interested in
working corporate angles than adding value from asset acquisition and the equity valued to
near-perfection. My royalty/streamer eyes have drifted away and I’m now more interested in
the new upcomers, with Elementary (ELE.v) and Vox (VOX.v) high on the list. I’d like to be
more enthusiastic about this new co-operative royalty spin-out, but I’m not. Jobs for the boys.
The TinyCaps List
After twenty-one weeks of 2022, the TinyCaps show a loss of 21.64% to level stakes:
19
ts1naJ ht9naJ ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6bef ht31 ht02 ht72 ht6ram ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3rpa ht01 ht71 ht42 ts1yam ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92
The 2022 Producer Basket: Percentage difference
between GDX benchmark & basket (negative = IKN ahead) 5.0%
4.5%
4.0%
ikn 3.5%
gdx control 3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
source: NYSE, IKN Calcs ts1naJ ht9naJ ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6bef ht31 ht02 ht72 ht6ram ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3rpa ht01 ht71 ht42 ts1yam ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92
source: IKN calcs, NYSE data
company ticker price 1/1/22 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Aurelius Min AUL.v 0.24 45.836 8.71 0.19 -20.8%
Golden Pursuit GDP.v 0.13 34.638 3.46 0.10 -23.1%
Infield Min INFD.v 0.06 48.445 1.94 0.04 -33.3%
Kingfisher Met KFR.v 0.30 102.46 26.13 0.255 -15.0%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.12 57.296 6.02 0.105 -12.5%
Manitou Gold MTU.v 0.06 344.57 10.34 0.03 -50.0%
Melkior Res MKR.v 0.295 24.011 6.36 0.265 -10.2%
Precipitate Gold PRG.v 0.105 129.322 11.64 0.09 -14.3%
Signature Res SGU.v 0.07 238.4 11.92 0.05 -28.6%
Winshear Gold WINS.v 0.08 61.585 4.62 0.075 -6.3%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg -21.64%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
Market capitalization of under $20m. They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a
little and allowed sub-U$20m market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, but it was a particularly depressing exercise to trawl through the whole of the TSXV and find companies
that are small enough, but with life in them. The vast majority of sub-$20m stocks are broken stocks, either
traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2020. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
The illiquid stocks stopped their bleeding and
15% TinyCaps, 2022 weekly tracker
five of the ten in our TinyCaps list remained
10%
unchanged. Two stocks returned gains (MKR.v,
5%
PRG.v) and three were losers (AUL.v, KFR.v,
0%
LMS.v) and the big winner Precipitate (PRG.v
-5%
up 28.6%) was cancelled out by the big loser
-10%
Aurelius (AUL.v down 25.5%). Once the dust
-15%
had settled on Friday, the basket average had
-20%
lost a moderate 1.5% but with the dump in
AUL.v, all ten of our charges are now in -25%
negative territory. That’s a fair indication of the
first half of 2022 for the tinycaps.
Aurelius Minerals (AUL.v): Thursday brought the publication (10) of the much-awaited
Maiden Resources Estimate (MRE) for AUL’s “Aureus East” project and to cut to the chase,
here’s the main table from the NR:
Using a U$1,700/oz gold price along with other normal criteria, AUL reported a combined open
pit and underground resource of just over 550k oz gold if we combine all categories (which we
can do, the company cannot). As for the market verdict…
20
dn2naJ ht9
naJ
ht61naJ dr32 ht03 ht6bef ht31 ht02 ht72 ht6ram ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3rpa ht01 ht71 ht42 ts1yam ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92
source: IKN calcs, TSX data
…this picture paints those thousand words. AUL was already weak in the market before last
week, when the news hit it sold off relentlessly and touched 18c before a small dead-cat
bounce on Friday. There are two problems:
The MRE headline number is small. Nobody is going to build combo open-pit/UG a mine
on half a million ounces.
AUL notes the exploration upside and the places in which they will be able to improve
tonnage and overall resources and we believe the company. No problem there, the
issue is that its type of underground “saddle vein” mineralization is going to need a lot
of drilling to explore, and that’s just into inferred category. As at March 31st, AUL had
$1.259m in treasury and a working cap of $560k. The company has added another
$580k via placement, but that’s just a small top-up and not the type of cash AUL will
need to get the Aureus East resource up to significant or eye-catching levels.
Bottom line: A disappointing MRE and the sell-off is both logical and understandable. The
reason AUL made this TinyCaps list for 2022 was to keep tabs on the company as it moved to
this resource announcement and, now it’s here, it’s fair to say that watching and not
participating was the right position.
Infield (INFD.v): Despite not seeing much progress with its projects this year, at least for us
on the outside looking in, the 1q22 filings out of INFD last week are worth considering for the
way this company conducts its financials. The quarterly loss was just C$211k and of that, cash
burn was just C$125k. Here’s the updated balance sheet and…
21
…while a small and modest one, we also see that INFD has kept its cash treasury intact and
according to the latest company literature, still has C$1.6m left.
To date INFD has been a boring and uneventful component of our 2022 list but in some ways,
it represents a segment of tinycap explorecos that are just that. INFD has kept its powder dry
and that’s a good thing, we can only suppose its team has been doing the type of grassroots
geology work that will lead it to its next testing target and that, at some point, it will eake up
again and start bringing news.
Kingfisher Metals (KFR.v): Odd things continue to happen around this stock, not necessarily
bad or good things, merely odd. Normally, when a small exploreco opens a placement on April
27th and announces it scheduled to close on May 19th but misses the deadline date, it means
they are having problems in filling the book but in the case of KFR, on May 26th and one week
after the scheduled close of its C$3.0m flow-through placement, it announced this (11):
“…further to its news release dated April 27, 2022, and due to investor demand, it has
upsized its non-brokered private placement (the “Offering”) from gross proceeds of up
to C$3.0 million to up to C$4.9 million through the issuance of charity flow-through
units at a price of C$0.28 per charity unit and flow-through units at a price of C$0.24
per FT unit of the company.”
After a delay of a week and a month after opening, the placement suddenly expands, rather
than contracts. The terms remain the same , with each unit contains one share and a half
warrant with a 35c strike, but the updated financing is now expected to close on June 7th. After
that, KFR will have the number of shares that I’ve assumed as pro-forma on the table above
(102.46m).
Meanwhile, the extended Canadian winter may be the reason KFR hasn’t announced the start of
its drilling activities as yet, but we presume that once the placement is closed they will tell us
more. They’ve been permitted to drill as from May 1st but so far, no news on that front.
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future
I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
The Colombia Presidential election Round One result
We’ve followed this election battle for over six months and for good reason, as the Colombia
Presidential election is an important moment for the country, for South America and for the
mining sector, both in-country and arguably, the whole continent. Today is the first big day, the
Round One vote and it’s all about the top three players. It’s now 9pm local time and with the
first official results and reasonably accurate forecasts now in, here’s the preliminary result,
according to the unofficial but very reliable fast count result with 99.98% of votes registered:
Gustavo Petro: 40.32%
Rodolfo Hernández: 28.15%
Federico ‘Fico’ Gutiérrez: 23.91%
As expected, the left wing Petro of the Pacto Historico (Historic Pact) alliance garnered the most
votes in round one. His final total of 40.3% is also close to the poll surveys and gives him a 12
point lead over the second position going into the run-off. But the big surprise is behind the
winner, as second spot went to the outsider Rodolfo Hernández, the wild-card candidate who
has funded his own campaign (he’s a successful real estate magnate in his home region of
Bucaramanga, as well as having been the mayor of the city between 2016 and 2019). We noted
the late momentum behind his campaign in last week’s edition and the late run continued last
week, while the “Fico” vote crumbled at the last minute as enough voters switched their
intention away from him and to Hernandez, preferring the anti-establishment option to that of
the current government’s chosen dauphin.
22
So while not a major upset compared to last weekend, the arrival of Hernández in the run-off is
a major shock compared to all polls aside from the last two weeks and now the big question is
whether he can parlay his late run and obvious momentum, built on the back of a largely right
wing populist policy platform, and unite the “Petro AntiVote” around him for the second round
run-off set to happen in just three weeks’ time. For that, we first consider this month’s polling
data starting with the final edition of Colombia’s main voter intention poll, La Gran Encuesta
(12). It came out on May 10th, we ran a lot of the information in the Weekly the following
weekend, IKN678 dated May 15th and at the time, Hernández hadn’t started his very late run
and was still polling at 13% for Round One. That had spiked to around 20% this time last
weekend and as we now know, it’s snowballed into the shock second place and putting him in
the run-off.
Therefore this information may be out of date, but La Gran Encuesta asked voters in its final
survey which way they’d vote if the run-off were between Lefty Petro and Outsider/Wild Card
Hernández. Here’s the slide from that document:
This poll taken before Hernández’s late surge showed him up against it in the second round
vote on June 19th. However, one of the last crop of polls we considered last weekend, run by
pollster CNC for Semana magazine, also asked the same question and here’s that result slide:}
Suddenly it’s neck-and-neck, which again shows the momentum from nowhere that has brought
Hernández to the second round. His chances seem to be with the previously apathetic, as La
Gran Encuesta had the non-votes at 23% and the latest CNC poll sees that down to 13%.
Therefore, if he can roll his momentum into getting more fence-sitters to make an “Anti Petro”
vote he may be able to swing it. Also, within hours this evening the big loser and third placed
23
candidate, Federico Gutiérrez, came out and backed Rodolfo Hernández in the second round
vote (he also made special mention that in his opinion, an eventual Petro presidency would be
poison for Colombia. This early endorsement for Rodolfo Hernández should help his momentum
continue.
However, the strategy used by Rodolfo Hernández of not attending the live candidate debates
in the run-up to this weekend’s vote and positioning himself as the anti-vote won’t wash in the
run-off, as from tomorrow he will need to give more details about his manifesto proposals
(rather than a rather one-track “anti-corruption” message) and also face-off against Petro in live
TV events between now and June 19th. There’s also a small matter of a pending criminal case
against him in his home region, where he’s been accused of covering up for his son when he
got a U$500m (yes, five hundred million) contract to run a regional waste disposal system.
Unfortunately for Hernández, his case is due up in court next month and he’ll have to find a
way round the negative image that case is bound to cast on him, what with his main platform
supposedly based on weeding out the corrupt establishment politicians.
The speedy endorsement from Fico Gutierrez this evening coupled with Hernández’s late
momentum has a lot of Colombian political analysts calling him as the new favourite for the
run-off vote, one that fits with the historical right-leaning tendencies of the country as a whole
(even if their new candidate is a somewhat Trumpian, anti-establishment populist right winger
with the same tendency for polemic utterances and deeds). However, he’s 77 years old, already
shown himself as a polemic character and there are several skeletons in his cupboard so he’s
nobody’s idea of a made-for-President personality. Finally, while the percentage of votes cast
today puts Petro against Hernández, the voter turnout was low with around 21 million valid
votes cast (or around 23m if “votes in white” are counted) from a total of 39.2m eligible voters.
Unlike most other LatAm countries, the vote is not obligatory in Colombia and the low turnout
for today’s election adds another layer of uncertainty in what might happen on June 19th.
There’s a likely scenario that plenty of Petro voters stayed at home (or did other things, as the
election coincided with a long weekend in Colombia and many people were traveling) but will
show for the second round. All in all it’s difficult to call this one tonight and uncertainty is likely
to reign for the next three weeks.
Brazil: Lula moves further ahead
For context, note that no sitting President has ever failed to be re-elected in Brazil, such is the
normal political advantage of having the State apparatus under your power. This time, not only
is incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro dropping further behind challenger and ex-President Lula
da Silva, but the latest polls puts Lula’s valid vote intention at 48% versus Jair’s 27% but
tellingly, the poll also included a “valid votes only” forecast that put Lula on 54%. That would
be enough for the 50%+1 vote required for a outright victory in round one. Such a result would
be a total humiliation for Bolsonaro and at this point, with less than five months to go before
election day, is a measure of Brazil’s discontent with the populist hard right winger. And even if
it goes to a run-off the Datafolha poll (13) has it at Lula 58%, Jair 33%.
Peru: More cabinet re-shuffles and a President in problems
As we were going to press last week, President Pedro Castillo pre-empted the inevitable and re-
shuffled his ministerial cabinet once again, replacing four ministers including the much-
questioned ex-Minister of Energy and Mining. In his place, Castillo has brought back Alessandra
Herrera, who was in the job for a full eight days earlier this year under until his Prime Minister
at the time, Hector Valer, was ousted and for protocol reasons took the whole cabinet with him.
At this point, we could continue with the bad news and tell you about the other three ministers
sworn in last Sunday and the near-certainty that the next few days will see more changes at
cabinet level (EDIT: Tonight Sunday we have a new Minister of Labor) but too much
information about the ins and outs of the Peruvian political clownshow won’t help our cause at
a mining newsletter. Mail in if you care enough, happy to try to answer about the general
scene, but here we just run with MINEM.
The good news is that new MINEM Minister Alessandra Herrera does know about mining. She’s
24
a lawyer by education and has worked in the area of mining law in the private and public
sectors. She first worked at MINEM in 2006 and held a regional directorate position in the
period 2015 to 2017, when she was responsible for the formalization processes of small-scale
mining companies. The other piece of good news is that her first move has been to start
cleaning out the people put into “friends and favours” jobs by her predecessor, as on
Wednesday she fired the new Secretary General of MINEM who is also an ally of hard-left
winger and Peru Libre party head, Vladimir Cerrón (14). This first necessary step to purge the
ministry of ideologues did not go down well with the people behind Castillo, but with the
secretary general’s job now in the hands of a sane person, the rest of MINEM can now be
cleared of the same Peru Libre party people put in high-paying jobs without having the
experience or know-how. In turn, this should improve the efficiency of MINEM (though it
couldn’t have got any worse) and should show in the practical matters of permits awarded etc.
Finally and in general news that may become big in the days ahead, this weekend Peru’s public
prosecutor announced it has formally included President Castillo in an ongoing corruption
investigation, connected to the awarding of lucrative public works contracts. The investigation
has been open for a few months and up to now, has only involved politicians close to Castillo,
The move this weekend marks a first for a sitting President and is an indication of the way Lima
is trying every move possible to get him out.
Chile: Standard pro-mining government protocol is not a bad thing
No news of radical law projects for the new constitution and no talk of militant left-wing policies
from the Boric government, instead Chile’s mining scene is back to no news and should stay
that way until Dominga gets refused its permit (see IKN679 last week). Instead, this week we
highlight two government-centred policy events that wouldn’t normally raise enough interest to
make it to the Regional Politics section of The IKN Weekly, but in current times it’s worth
showing the outside world how Chile’s mining sector is continuing in its normal and unassuming
way, the way mining sectors should run.
First up, this week saw the new directorate for the State-owned Codelco meet and the biggest
headline was how, for the first time ever, it includes three women on its board. The new
Codelco President was keen to highlight the incorporation of Josefina Montenegro, Alejandra
Wood and Patricia Nuñez, telling (15) the assembled press that (translated), “Their deep
understanding and experience will help us implement urgent management improvements in
various sectors, such as environmental protection, ethics and transparency, the correct planning
and development of projects and the required financial equilibrium, as well as other priority
issues.” All fine copy for the nation’s ESG profile, for sure
Then on Thursday the most important woman in Chile’s mining world, Mining Minister Marcela
Hernando, gave her first formal report on work done in her ministry since the assumption of
Gabriel Boric’s government, in the standard Chilean transparency mechanism known as the
“Public Participative Account” (Cuenta Pública Participativa) (16). Minister Hernando highlighted
three aspects of work in the first months of her tenure, namely 1) the work done to establish a
regulatory framework for the newly expanding lithium mining industry, 2) the support being
offered to small-scale formal mining operations in light of sharp cost increases (mostly fuel and
power) and 3) the promotion of the new policy for seawater-based water supply for the next
generation of large-scale mines and projects in the country, be they via straight salt-water use
(e.g. Santo Domingo) or desalination and pipeline projects, which are forecast to cover up to
30% of total water used in Chile’s mining industry come 2030. The messaging was upbeat, pro-
business and pro-mining and ended with these words (translated), “We are convinced that the
Chilean mining industry must set an example, due to its history and vocation for the common
good.”
Market Watching
Starcore (SAM.to) arbitrage opportunity, continued
No news on any formal offer from Mexico private equity concern Semper as yet, which isn’t too
25
surprising but does mean interest has tailed off for the story in the capital markets. As planned
and without any haste, I bought a few shares for the proposed side bet and left plenty of room
for more if the trade picks up momentum. While under normal circumstances, I’m loathe to
mention exact cash numbers for trades, but in this case and to underscore the “side bet” nature
of this trade, be clear that it’s less than $500 in cash value.
Conclusion
IKN680 is done, we end with bullet points:
Superior Gold (SGI.v) came out of 1q22 well enough and the best of 2022 is yet to
come. This is a very cheap, operating, profitable goldi mining company and the one I
should have latched onto at the start of the year as the turnaround stock, instead of
McEwen Mining (MUX). However, the recent price drop has allowed a second bite at the
cherry as the current price is only 10% higher than the 75c (or so) price at the start of
the year.
The Colombia round two battle is going to be close and in Rodolfo Hernández, the
country has its own Trump-ish story.
On re-reading this edition, two things stand out. First that it’s a bit light on content and
second, Palamina Corp (PA.v) would look extremely cheap if either of the holes in the
labs right now hit the type of mineralization that the team think is there. They couldn’t
find it with the 2021 program, but the stock price isn’t likely to take much of a hit if
they hit dusters this time. Along with Kingfisher, it’s a live tinycap drill play. However,
it’s rather sad to see Aurelius fade away on its news.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stocks are Minera Alamos (MAI.v) and
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v). Flash updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best wishes, Mark
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/05/schedule-for-week-of-may-29-202.html
(2) https://superior-gold.com/news/superior-gold-reports-solid-first-quarter-results-122640/
(3) https://superior-gold.com/news/superior-gold-increases-mineral-reserves-by-66-an-122641/
(4) https://6ix.com/event/insight-into-superior-golds-q1-results-and-updated-reserve-resource-results/
(5) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yRPvo7mBFrE
(6) https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/commodities-perfect-storm-says-erg-crisis-starts-super-cycle-2022-05-25/
(7) http://www.orocoresourcecorp.com/_resources/blog/Copper-Market-Analysis-RFC-Ambrian-May-2022.pdf
(8) https://regulusresources.com/news/2022/regulus-expands-skarn-mineralization-at-the-antakori-copper-gold-project/
(9) https://www.equinoxgold.com/news/equinox-gold-and-sandstorm-gold-royalties-launch-sandbox-royalties--a-
diversified-metals-royalty-company
(10) https://aureliusminerals.com/news/aurelius-announces-maiden-mineral-resource-estimate-at-aureus-east/
(11) https://kingfishermetals.com/kingfisher-announces-upsize-to-private-placement-financing/
(12) https://www.noticiasrcn.com/elecciones/elecciones-2022-resultados-gran-encuesta-rcn-mayo-418885
26
(13) https://www.infobae.com/america/agencias/2022/05/26/lula-recupera-terreno-y-ganaria-con-holgura-a-bolsonaro-
sondeo/
(14) https://busquedas.elperuano.pe/normaslegales/aceptan-renuncia-de-secretario-general-del-ministerio-de-ene-
resolucion-ministerial-n-172-2022-minemdm-2070986-1/
(15) https://enlalinea.cl/2022/05/26/directorio-de-codelco-sesiona-con-tres-nuevos-directores/
(16) https://www.biobiochile.cl/noticias/economia/actualidad-economica/2022/05/26/los-focos-del-ministerio-de-mineria-
el-litio-y-promover-infraestructura-para-uso-de-agua-de-mar.shtml
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Set-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Abr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Ago-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Set-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Ene-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Set-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Ene-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Set-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Ago-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Abr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Set-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Abr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Set-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-ago-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-ene-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-abr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-abr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-ene-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-ene-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-abr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-abr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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