IKN #677Premium

The IKN Weekly
Week 677, May 8th 2022
Contents
This Week: In Today’s edition, The Fed doesn’t do supply side.
Fundamental Analysis: Quarterly results of our three largest trades, Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v), Minera
Alamos (MAI.v), Amerigo Resources (ARG.to).
Stocks to Follow: Solis Minerals (SLMN.v) (SLM.ax), Abrasilver (ABRA.v), Discovery Silver
(DSV.v), Superior Gold (SGI.v), Western Copper & Gold (WRN.to), Chesapeake Gold (CKG.v),
Aldebaran Resources (ALDE.v), Element 29 (ECU.v).
Copper Basket: Overview, Hot Chili (HCH.v), Regulus Resources (REG.v).
Producer Basket: Overview, Sandstorm (SAND), Barrick (GOLD), Kinross (KGC).
TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Kingfisher (KFR.v), Latin Metals (LMS.v).
Regional Politics: Argentina’s FinMin talks up mining in Salta, Chile: The government is laying
out its social agenda on mining, Peru: Minister Energy and Mining faces Congress this week,
Brazil: Lula begins his official campaign, Colombia: The second round beckons, but…
Market Watching: Notes on the New Gold (NGD) 1q22 financials.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
In Today’s Edition
 Today’s main Fundies section considers the quarterly results from our three biggest
positions, namely Top Pick Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v), Top Pick Minera Alamos (MAI.v) and main
copper trade Amerigo Resources (ARG.to). Much of the coverage is housekeeping on
satisfactory numbers, but there are a few novelties to note as well. In particular, the
new details on ARG’s dividend plans make the current share price a truly compelling
opportunity.
 Please note that Solis Minerals (SLMN.v) is not yet a member of the Stocks to Follow
list, as I didn’t pay the 15c on Monday and didn’t buy on Friday. This trade should open
in the next few days.
 Last week was dominated by the negative reaction to the FOMC announcement, made
even worse by the whipsaw effect from the Wednesday rally. Both the intro and The
Copper Basket attempt some thoughts on the mess but the overall message is “wait
and see”, at least for the moment.
 In a different week, New Gold (NGD) may well have rallied once the Monday earnings
report had been properly digested by the market, the fact that it didn’t opens the
opportunity for a near-term trade.
The Fed doesn’t do supply side
“There’s a lot of excess demand.”
Jerome Powell, FOMC press
conference, Weds May 4th.
1

It was a tough week that was already in a negative funk when the Fed decision caused a a
whipsaw that turned reasonable optimism on Wednesday afternoon into full-scale selling rift
and a flight to the US Dollar on Thursday and Friday. The USD closed the week at its highest
level since 2003 and while Gold managed to hold its own fairly well, all other metals took a
beating and the result was a dump of mining stocks in general and small, somewhat illiquid
junior stocks in particular. However, let’s step back a moment and take a slightly longer view of
last week via this (slightly too busy) 2022 year-to-date (YTD) comparative price chart:
The US Dollar (DXY proxy) has taken over as the place to park your cash. We know that, but at
least Gold (GLD proxy) has kept its head above water. However, the sharp drops in silver (SLV
proxy and copper (HG00 proxy) are threatening to push them down toward the lowest squiggly
line on that chart, that of the broad markets (S&P 500 proxy). The question is whether the Fed
will allow this to happen. The market’s reply to the Fed’s grand plan last week must have
pleased Jay Powell at first, with issues of all types bought up but come Thursday, the world got
scared again, bought up the dollar and sold equities, something the US (or Biden, who must by
now be thinking of the next election) cannot afford to let happen. Clearly, the Fed hadn’t told
the world what it wanted to hear and thinks inflation isn’t going to respond to the “more of the
same” treatment that got us into this high inflation mess.
At this point, we bring Jeff Christian of CPM Group into the conversation. Christian is one of the
few metals market commentators on the talking heads circuit I respect, not necessarily for his
track record in calling the moves in precious metals, which is okay but hardly perfect (e.g. he
expected U$30/oz silver last year). The respect comes from his method and mindset, as he
bases his views on hard data, a good grasp of how the metals markets work and a sound
grounding in economics. Perhaps as important, he’s also unafraid of calling out the internet
shills and charlatans who gather around the silver and gold sector. Christian makes his money
by trading silver and gold, as well as producing data on the sectors. As part of his push to
promote the 2022 CPM Yearbook he did this interview on Kitco last week (1) which focused
mostly on silver. When he gives 15 minutes of his time in an interview I tend to listen, so it
came as a welcome respite from the current drudge state of the silver market to hear Christian
making many of the same points that appeared in IKN674 three weeks ago in our main fundies
note that day, “Silver is ready to move higher.”
Now for sure, I’m the first to admit that the title line for that piece is a little unfortunate
considering what’s happened to silver since then, but the body of the text made it clear that we
weren’t trying to time the price move in silver. Far from it, in fact one of the points made was
that moves in silver are fiendishly difficult to predict and the bets course of action would be at
least to wait until the options rollover had finished before considering an entry point:
“…we seem to be either at or close to a point in the financial cycle at which silver
breaks and moves higher. This desk is not stupid enough to attempt a guess on the
timing of any move, but there are clear indications of pressure cooker dynamic growing
and a rise in real physical demand from the investment or speculator community.”
2

In IKN674, we also made special mention of the supply side pressures were the driving forces
behind the current world inflation pulse. Also, that silver was showing the same signals of
supply bottleneck:
“It’s coming at the same time as a macro inflationary pulse that took the broad markets
largely unawares, due to its (i.e. The Fed) bad read of what was behind the pressure
that built up. It took a Larry Summers to go back and consider the present day using
old-school economics to see what was happening and, for all intents and purposes,
what’s happening in silver is a microcosm of what has just happened to the macro
economy.”
This is the context under which I am still happy to stand by argument for higher silver prices
made in IKN674, as well as silver potential for a sharp breakout move in 2022. Which brings me
back to the points made by Jeff Christian last week and while it’s worth hearing the whole
thing, here’s a transcript of one of the key passages of the Q&A:
“…but a lot of the inflationary pressures are coming from the supply side.
Supply tends to be less responsive to interest rate changes, so the Fed can
try to quell demand and cool inflationary pressure, but it really is beyond the
scope of the Fed policy to try to reduce those supply constraints, both in terms
of supply production and supply delivery. And those things have been
compounded by the Zero Covid policy in China, by the Russian invasion of
Ukraine and by a variety of other things too, so you have a lot of supply push,
pushing inflation higher and the Fed really doesn’t have a lot of power to
control that portion of the economy.”
Yup, that’s what we said. It’s also a direct reflection of the macro argument made by no lesser
econ brain as Larry Summers three weeks ago (IKN674 quote), but put in a clearer and more
straightforward way that made me wish I’d said it that way. It’s also the story for silver so while
the current sentiment for doom, gloom and we-all-gonna-die is prevalent, there’s strong
backbone to our call about higher, rather than lower silver prices in our future.
This also puts the reaction to the Federal Reserve announcement and Jay Powell’s press
conference into better relief. After the opening statement in which he spoke in a direct, to-the
living-room way to his US audience about the threats posed by high inflation, we then got the
quote at the top of this intro piece, “There’s a lot of excess demand.” The market doesn’t
agree, the market likes the level of demand and is complaining about the lack of supply, but Jay
Powell either 1) doesn’t get that, 2) does get that but is trying to fake an easy solution or 3)
decided to lie to the American people. The market spoke the next day, moving up the chances
of a fully fledged recession and pooh-poohing his cunning plan to get inflation under control by
crimping demand, instead of doing the right and more difficult thing by stimulating supply.
So what to do? The result of the new US monetary policy has pushed metals in general and
silver in particular lower than this desk expected. You can tell because I didn’t sell my shares,
you can also tell because I’m trying to put on a brave face about adding a silver stock two
weeks ago and wondering how low it might go before the market corrects the US Dollar again.
However, one of the best things about being a mining market commentator is that you’re never
wrong:
 Stocks go up? Bask in the glory
 Stocks go down? Blame the Powers That Be.
 Dollar strengthens? Will make its imminent collapse even worse
 Dollar weakens? It’s just the beginning
 Metals go up? It was clearly going to happen
 Metals down? Market manipulation by overlords threatened with reality
Okay, that’s facetious and of little help at this point, but neither am I ready to change course
3

entirely on the back of two days’ worth of post-Fed negative trend. So for the time being I’m
going to keep the brave face in place and remain long in all positions, including those wretched
silver stocks that I talked myself into buying.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Quarterly results of our three largest trades
As coincidence would have it, last week saw the three largest positions held by your author,
namely the Top Pick Minera Alamos (MAI.v), the Top Pick (Rio2 Ltd) and our preferred copper
producer Amerigo Resources (ARG.to), all file quarterly financials in the same Rio2 Ltd 1q22
financials. In the case of ARG.to and RIO.v they were the 1q22 filings, while MAI.v gave us its
year-end results (and we should have its 1q22 within the next three or four weeks). As such,
today’s main fundamentals section is more rote housekeeping on the two Top Picks and my
three largest trades in cash terms and while there is no change to the outlook or
recommendations for any of them, with luck you’ll hopefully find a smattering of insight in each
section. We do the three companies in a rough order of simplicity:
 First Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v), its financials as a developer in the final stages of EIA permit
approval makes its financial development the most straightforward, to date at least. The
upcoming construction period using debt and stream financing will make financials more
important and indeed, the 1q22 period sees the first showings of how RIO.v is set to develop.
 Second Minera Alamos (MAI.v) as to use that over-worn cliché, the fact that it’s “on the
cusp of commercial production” means things change as from next quarter. The 4q21 period
filed last week is the last time we’ll have “explorer financials” from my single largest junior
position.
 Third and last Amerigo Resources (ARG.to). We covered most of its “in-line” production
quarter three weeks ago in IKN674 so there’s no need to repeat that angle today, today we
zero in on the financial aspects and the strongly positive messaging that came from its
literature and Conference Call (one of the best I’ve ever sat in on from a junior).
Intro blahblah complete, let’s get down to business:
Rio2 1q22 financials
The main event for RIO.v filings the evolution of balance sheet items, so we begin with the
assets and liabilities overview:
RIO.v: Assets overview, per qtr
The three noticeable changes are interconnected, so let’s start with the liabilities chart and the
big jump on the Q1 column, due to the arrival of the first U$25m tranche of its deal with
Wheaton (WPM. The second U$25m is due on receipt of its EIA permit, after that RIO will also
begin to benefit from the flow of funds from its debt deal with Paribas (BNPP). A good time to
4
279.96 381.27 925.27 185.27 563.47 957.37 329.08 370.48 613.86 273.96 450.17 972.17 975.27
438.29
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1
C$m RIO.v: Liabilities overview
50
45
40
35
30
25 20
15
10
5
0
source: company filings
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1
C$m
LT liab
current liab
source: company filings

remind readers that RIO.v has serious, large-scale and reputable entities funding its
development, unusual in the juniors sphere and testament to the quality of the Fenix project.
Moving to the assets chart above, I’ve added the totals for fixed assets and we see that 1)
RIO.v is now capitalizing its expenditures (it’s a developer, after all) and has already spent part
of the WPM cash on long lead items, as well as paying for camp development (which remains
on-track). Cash treasury has also expanded and these two charts below show how treasury and
overall working capital have improved:
RIO.v: Cash& short term eq, per qtr
Also, please note that on August 13th, the “Eric Sprott warrants” that came as part of Sprott’s
financing way back when come due. They stand at 25.918m warrants outstanding at a
conversion price of C$0.50, which means RIO.v is almost certain to get a bump in the number
of shares out, but also a useful U$10m or so directly to treasury at just the right time.
Bottom line to balance sheet: The EIA is due at any moment, the paperwork and
supplementary questions are done, the Chilean authorities are emitting EIA permits at a normal
rate (see Regional Politics, below) and once that happens, the big money to finance the rump
of the Fenix build-out will flow. But even before then RIO.v has more than enough cash to get
on and “do things”, it’s good to see the received cash from WPM being used.
No cash worries here and as for what RIO is using its money for, here are two charts with the
first from the P+L:
other
C$m RIO.v: Quarterly expenses breakdown
G&A
6 Expl. Costs
share comp
5 prof fees
employment costs
4
3
2
1
0
source: company filings
-1
1q18 2q18 3q18 4q18 1q19 2q19 3q19 4q19 1q20 2q20 3q20 4q20 1q21 2q21 3q21 4q21 1q22
Employment costs are up as the company expands into construction, that’s normal. We also
note professional fees have dropped compared to
the last half of 2021, the main lawyer fees for the
EIA permitting process are now behind the
company. Meanwhile, a sample of just two line
items from the statement of cash flows shows
where most of the money goes:
5
201.1 515.4 614.1 611.12 174.91 297.41
47.9 579.9
434.3 535.3 554.1 560.32 543.12
966.33
40
35
30
25
20
15 10
5
0
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1
C$m RIO.v: Working capital
source: company filings
22.1-
25.1
67.0-
94.02
28.51
69.31
92.9 19.9
64.1 60.3
80.0-
68.22
54.91
63.52
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1
C$m
source: company filings
RIO.v: Investing activities
U$m
16
14
Property/Equip
12
Expl/Eval assets
10
8
6
4
2
0
1q20 2q20 3q20 4q20 1q21 2q21 3q21 4q21 1q22
source: company filings

The quiet 2021 waiting period is now over, RIO.v is waking up and getting on with the job of
building its mine, doing what it can while waiting for its final permitting green light. Finally,
shares out and our best guess on how this key item will end 2022:
RIO.v: Shares out
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
6
71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 tse22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
M s/o
source: company filings
We assume Eric Sprott exercises all his warrant position, we also assume that some point RIO.v
runs a final modest financing and finishes the year at 300m shares outstanding.
To conclude this concise update of our Top Pick Rio2 Ltd, the numbers already show how 2022
is going to be different from 2021 and thank the Mining Deities for that! All that’s left to put
into place is the key EIA permit and as that’s due in this current quarter, we should get good
news sooner rather than later. The cash is on-hand, the company has already started doing
what it can to spend it wisely, what’s left is the build-out.
Minera Alamos (MAI.v) 4q21 and Year-End financials
Our other Top Pick also gets the quick treatment today, not least because its next set of
financials promise to be more revealing about the state of its cash flows and operations. Minera
Alamos filed its 4q21 last Monday and for today, our focus is again on balance sheet items and
specifically its cash position. We begin with the same overview assets/liabilities charts:
MAI.v: Assets
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
With liabilities are tiny, we do now see a little extra added to currents as you’d expect; Santana
is now a working mine and while not yet commercial, has the standard costs and revenues
you’d expect from an active operation. Mainly a hike in trade payables, the $4m level is
eminently manageable.
As for assets, we first note that MAI is also now accruing fixed asset value as it capitalizes
expenditures, which is quite right at this stage in its development. More on that in a moment,
first the key line item of cash, that came in at C$7.043m and, as company President Doug
Ramshaw has previously indicated that cash has remained steady at that level through 1q22,
we assume the same level as at end 1q22 and slightly higher today.
Below has the cash position separated out, as well as working capital:
61q4 71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 tse22q1 tse22q2
$m MAI.v: Liabilities per qtr
10
9
fixed 8
other current 7
cash 6
5
4
3
2
1
0
source: company filings
61q4 71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 tse22q1 tse22q2
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
LT liabs
current liabs

28 MAI.v: Working Capital per qtr
26
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
The main message: No problems with cash or liquidity. That’s important, as MAI is currently
traversing that uncertain period between
commissioning and its official declaration of
commercial production. However, we have seen
cash drop from the high point of over C$23m in
3q20 to today, so here’s a look at what MAI has
been spending it on (right). The two main
elements of “fixed assets” are plant and
construction, we see how mining equipment has
been added gradually over the past five (in fact,
now six) quarters, while the big shift to
capitalization of works means that mine asset
value has only jumped recently. But put those two
together and we see C$19.83m of fixed asset
value added, all while cash has dropped by C$16m
or so. When you consider that period includes all the corporate G&A and expenditures one
needs to keep the lights on at a public listed junior mining company, there’s nothing else left
but to applaud the way MAI has allocated capital. More shareholder friendly, impossible.
President Ramshaw has been adamant with the message of not wanting to declare commercial
production until the term is truly justified, i.e. its first Santana mine is truly profitable and on
stable course. We learned recently that the company is now running at breakeven on a
corporate basis and with at least $7m at bank (plus its untapped credit line), it means MAI is
going to get there without any cash problems. What that means in real terms is that when MAI
declares, the stock will rally. Take that to the bank.
Coming back to the present day and considering the treasury position once again, we can get a
feel of how MAI has managed to add $20m of fixed asset value for $16. For the 2q22
estimates, we expect treasury to rise slightly to C$8m, this estimate based on two inputs: 1)
MAI has said it is already commercializing its dore and 2) we understand that recently, MAI has
sold the last tranche of its Prime Mining shares. Those shares have served the company well as
a ready source of liquidity through construction, but all good things come to an end. From now
on the “other current will include inventory levels which from 1q22 onward will be broken out
into their own line item. Also new as from the upcoming quarter will be P+L with revenues and
COGS, as MAI will not wait for the official
commercial production quarter to begin reporting
its operations in greater detail. This is a good thing,
it also means the quarter we see today is its last
“exploreco company” quarter.
As for shares out, they have climbed slightly due to
the exercising of derivatives. From the 446.196m
7
61q4 71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 tse22q1 tse22q2
source company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
MAI.v: Cash treasury per qtr
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
61q4 71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 tse22q1 tse22q2
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
MAI.v: Fixed asset carry
12.0
11.0
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4
C$m
Mining equipment
Construction in progress
source: company filings
500 MAI.v: Shares Out
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
61q4 71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 tse22q1 tse22q2
source: company filings
serahs
fo
snoillim

shares as at end 4q21, we estimate the total at 451m by the end of our current quarter (June
30th). This gives MAI an estimated market cap of C$270.6m this weekend, or U$216.5m using
our standard forex of 0.8/1. You are getting an awful lot of company for that price and one with
no debt or liability headwinds as it comes out of developer status and into true operations.
We can now look forward to fundamentally sound newsflow from MAI, even while the team
gets us looking beyond Santana and thinking about its next development project. They can talk
up Cerro de Oro, La Fortuna and even the newly mooted “Minera Alamos Cobre” spinco, I’ll
stick to three things:
 The upcoming 43-101 resource for Santana
 The declaration of commercial production at Santana
 The 1q22 financials, which will give the first glimpse of operation financials and cash
flow
In the meantime, make sure you are locked and loaded to your personal heart’s content in
Minera Alamos (MAI.v) now, because it would be a shame to see long-term followers of this
compelling story have to chase the price up.
Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) 1q22 financials
In IKN674 dated April 17th, we checked over the 1q22 production data from our main copper
trade Amerigo Resources (ARG.to), liked what we saw and finished the note with this flourish:
“…expect more on this success story in IKN677 that weekend with balance sheet items
and notes on anything my model got wrong. In the meantime, anyone looking for
compelling equity value in the copper space should look no further, as the math is
screaming about a higher share price for Amerigo Resources in the near future. It’s up
nicely from our house entry point but there’s a lot left in the tank. We leave you with
the five-year chart and a reminder of how far ARG has come since it was nearly ruined
by previous CEO, Rob Henderson but, since the Covid crisis two years ago, if you very
look closely you may be able to spot a trend. Own some.”
and exhorted you all to buy or add some. The irony starts here, as even with last week’s useful
rally in the stock…
…ARG this weekend is priced at C$1.70, five cents lower than when IKN674 was published. In
other words, even after witnessing ARG draw away from the copper pack on the back of its
financial results, in-house performance and winning corporate strategy under CEO Davidson,
you can buy the stock more cheaply than you could when its strong production number was
known.
And own some you should! The news last week from ARG was better than even I could have
hoped for and the 2q22 results, Conference Call and company literature has blown your
author’s caution on overplaying the potential of a bonanza dividend out of the water. We’ll get
to that at the end, first a quick flip through the parts of its production results that needed
8

confirmation, then the way financials came in better than we forecast. After that, the market-
moving news.
We knew production and sales from IKN674, this is the breakdown chart that shows how fresh
tailings production has superseded that of the historic tailings source since CEO Aurora
Davidson took over the helm. This quarter saw record production from fresh tailings, and while
that implies lower moly by-product production, the new policy makes sense as it requires less
water and the company always mentions how it means less depletion of its historic tailings
tonnages.
ARG: Production breakdown by source, per qtr
9
92.01
404.5
687.9
7.5
695.9
30.6
109.8
903.5
231.9
625.5
309.11
256.5
747.31
587.4
114.8
395.4
322.8
121.5
301.11
589.4
61.11
75.4
717.5
131.5
13.6
66.6
8
86.6
82.9
71.7
74.8
30.7
16.7
73.7
73.7
26.8
46.7
62.9
68.6
16.9
26
24
22
20
18
16
14 12 10
8
6 4
2
0
71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1
Mlb Cu
Slag processing
Cauquenes tailings
Fresh tailings
source: company filings
However, there is another advantage, as these charts below indicate the reliability of recoveries
and the slight improvement in grade we’ve seen from supply direct from DET (El Teniente).
ARG has clearly opted for this as the most cost effective and efficient option from its two supply
sources and CEIO Davidson mentioned during the conference call that although they don’t
expect to get a lot more from Fresh Tailings production per quarter, we can expect a slight
increase before hitting a long-term ceiling. We seem to be heading for a scenario in which 10m
lbs of the 16m or 17m lbs produced per quarter comes from fresh tailings.
MVC: head grades from sources MVC: Recoveries by source
Cu grade Cauquenes grade 50% Cauquenes recovery
0.30% Fresh grade 45% Fresh recovery
0.28% 40%
0.26%
35%
0.24%
30%
0.22%
25%
0.20%
0.18% 20%
0.16% 15%
0.14% 10%
0.12% 5%
0.10% 0%
1q20 2q20 3q20 4q20 1q21 2q21 3q21 4q21 1q22
1q20 2q20 3q20 4q20 1q21 2q21 3q21 4q21 1q22
source: ARG filings source: ARG filings
Our forecast for gross copper value was U$78m, the reality was U$79.4m…
ARG: Cu gross value, per qtr
6.83 1.43
7.24 6.34
8.12
8.43
2.05
4.16
7.66 4.17 1.96
3.57 4.97 0.47 0.67 8.67 90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 tse22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
U$m
source: company filings, IKN ests

…and we’re keeping to the estimates for 2q22 and the rest of the year (Q2 sees slightly lower
numbers due to the scheduled maintenance shutdown, now successfully behind us). Credit
metals (moly) was slightly better than expected, costs slightly higher (transport) and cancelled
that small benefit out. The result was…
ARG: Gross Cu value vs Total revs, per qtr
10
637.72 296.22 9.33
474.53
836.51
640.62
555.73
881.74 709.84 305.05 231.84 900.25 567.35
5.94
15
3.15
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 tse22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
U$m
source: company filings, IKN ests
…top line revenues at U$53.765m, some $665k higher than our forecast. That’s a small benefit,
but then came a bigger one as ARG COGS came in at U$32.339m, that’s $2m+ lower than our
U$34.5m estimate and means our gross profit forecast of U$18.6m was soundly beaten. Here’s
the chart and the result, a gross profit of U$21.426m:
ARG.to: Quarterly Earnings overview
139.8-
593.0-
389.8
927.51
878.81
721.91
291.41
198.91 624.12
71 71
3.71
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 tse22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
source: company filings
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revenues
COGS
Gross profit
But wait! There’s more! I would have been happy with my operating profit forecast of U$16.3m,
the result was…
ARG.to: Gross, operating and net profits, per qtr
09.4-
13.3-
60.8
44.31 40.61
70.81
56.21
15.71
10.12
05.41 05.41 08.41
26
24
22 20 18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 tse22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
U$m
Gross profit
op profit Net Income
source: ARG data
…U$21.01m (with a net of U$15.489m, but what matters is operating). In other words, ARG
beat my model by a cool U$4.7m, or 2.7c US per share and that alone covers the 3c Canadian
quarterly dividend. The beat came firstly from keeping costs in-line (good news), but on the
P+L ARG also benefited from a positive forex adjustment that boosted “other”. Here are a
couple of charts:

These days, with ARG flush with cash a healthy balance sheet, the Forex gain/loss seems to be
connected to the fluctuations in the Chilean Peso (CLP) and as it happens, 1q22 worked in the
company’s favour. Since then the CLP has done the same thing as just about any other
currency in the developed world and
weakened against the US Dollar (USD) so
we’re unlikely to enjoy the same effect during
the current 2q22 quarter.
Moving to the balance sheet items (right), we
see the type of balance sheet expansion you’d
expect from a profitable company. One item
that will increase as the year unfolds is the
fixed asset portion of this overview chart, as in
1q22 ARG deployed $2.42m of a total of
around U$12m earmarked for capital works
this year. On the conference call, CEO
Davidson said that 2q22 would be the main
capital spend period, Below is the same asset information, just without the fixed assets.
ARG.to: Current Assets
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
11
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 tse22q2
source: company filings
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ARG: Forex gain/loss, per qtr
cash&eq Trade/Rec
Inventory other current
We expect cash to continue to grow in 2q22 despite the payments due for capital goods and
the next 3c quarterly dividend.
We now move to the opposite side of the
ledger and as ARG took questions regarding
its debt position during the ConfCall, with
callers wanting to know whether ARG would
reduce debt levels on its books, this may be a
good time to go into a little extra detail on the
entirety of its liabilities (because I think people
are confusing the words “debt” and “liability”
here, First the overview chart that sees total
liabilities just under U$135m (right).
310.1 984.0- 921.0- 64.0- 763.0- 722.1 5.0-
1.5
1
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 tse22q2
U$m CLP strength to USD forex per qtr
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100
source: company filings
02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 tse22q2
CLP
source: XE.com
ARG.to: Total Assets
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 tse22q2
source: company filings
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cash&eq Trade/Rec
Inventory other current
fixed
ARG.to: Liabilities Breakdown per qtr
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1
source: company filings
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LT liab
current liab

That looks quite hefty at first sight, but the nature of the ARG set-up means liabilities will
always be stacked with the following items and included are the 1q22 numbers for an idea of
the weightings:
 DET royalty (as at 1q22, $23.2m)
 Trade payables ($17.0m)
 Current income tax ($13.6m)
 Deferred (non-current) income tax liability ($36.2m)
The fact that ARG’s income tax bill is up to $13.6m is a good thing, it’s making more profit for
everyone and that includes the country of Chile. The El Teniente (DET) royalty is a rolling,
quarter-by-quarter liability and a constant on the balance sheet, trade payables are a part of life
and that non-current tax liability is also non-cash. Between them, the four items make up $90m
of the $135m total as at end 1q22, they’re not going away and they are of little consequence to
ARG as a going concern. What really matters in the liabilities are the financial loans and they
have evolved as seen in this chart:
ARG: Debt profile
23.8 25.7 9.4 10.1 9.4 9.9 14.2 17.1 14.9 10.7 9.2 7.0 7.3 7.5
12
9.44
9.13
7.54 8.54 2.14 2.14 0.93 7.63 1.23
8.62 8.62
4.32 5.32 0.02
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 tse22q2
U$m
long-term borrowings
current borrowings
source: company data
ARG has a $35m loan that it pays back at $3.5m every six months (plus interest). The loan is
with a Chilean syndicate of banks on competitive terms and ARG will have no problems in
keeping the deal in place (it even has an undrawn $15m line of credit available). Expect this to
slowly drop from here until maturity in 2026 without causing a ruffle, as long as copper prices
remain sound. Bottom line: this is a healthy balance sheet and ARG is in great position to fund
its modest capital works requirements, its quarterly dividend and its share buyback program.
After that we get to the bonus pool and the news event of this earnings report, its plans for the
“Top-up dividend” (as it has been named by CEO Davidson…I do not argue).
Bur first a brief update on the NCIB share buyback program. In April, the company bought back
just 563,750 shares, bringing the total bought back to 4,388,150. The lower number is because
ARG was under blackout from April 8th to May 5th but now it’s free to buy shares again. On the
Conference Call (2), CEO Davidson assured listeners that the NCIB would be fully used and
probably before the end of its allotted 12 month period to November. That would entail
purchases of U$14m in total. She was also clear that the 3c/qtr dividend as here to stay. This
brings us to the “top-up dividend”, which was previously framed as a likely bonus for the fourth
quarter of each calendar year but according to the Conference Call, may now be paid at any
time and in any amount. “It doesn’t necessarily have to be an annual dividend”, said CEO
Davidson and seemingly, ARG doesn’t want potential buyers of ARG stock. As for the size of the
payout, we’ll leave that to slide 10 of the company’s latest corporate presentation:

Yes, that does say “Potential top-up dividend of 27 cents Cdn”. On the ConfCall, CEO Davidson
also said (and I quote) “We could be 27c/share” and laid next to the other policies now running
to return capital to shareholders, the total may come to $65m. Wow.
This blows my previously conservative forecasts clean out the water. While I was aware the
cash build would mean a potential bonanza at year’s end, to date it seemed prudent to
underplay the conceptual bonanza of “any treasury above $25m” returned via the Top-Up
Dividend. However, the company now has declared the potential for a truly eye-poping payout
via dividends so today, The IKN Weekly adjusts its forecasts upwards but even now, these
pages will still err to the side of caution. As noted above, ARG does have certain payments to
cover…
 $7m in loan repayments in two $3.5m portions, end Q2 and end Q4
 The annual employee salary raise that is due during Q3
 While capex is not heavy, we should reserve $10m in FY22 operating profits to
requirements for this year and consider whether ARG will reserve some treasury for
FY23 investments
…and then there’s the small fact that copper has dropped from the previous U$4.64/lb average
level seen in 1q22 and that Q2 production will come in slightly lower, due to the scheduled
maintenance period. Put those together and it’s fair to assume we won’t get the full 27c+12c=
39c in dividend payouts posited on Slide 10 of the company presentation, but ARG is obviously
looking to return far more than my previous 16c or 18c total, as seen in IKN674.
Therefore, here’s an updated dividend yield spread table to give a new framework for yield and
what we can reasonably expect from its share price performance:
Amerigo (ARG.to): Dividend Yield Percentage Spread Table
Share Dividend paid per year (Canadian Dollar Cents)
price CAD$ 12 14 16 20 25 30 35
1.50 8.00 9.33 10.67 13.33 16.67 20.00 23.33
1.60 7.50 8.75 10.00 12.50 15.63 18.75 21.88
1.80 6.67 7.78 8.89 11.11 13.89 16.67 19.44
2.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 10.00 12.50 15.00 17.50
2.20 5.45 6.36 7.27 9.09 11.36 13.64 15.91
2.40 5.00 5.83 6.67 8.33 10.42 12.50 14.58
2.60 4.62 5.38 6.15 7.69 9.62 11.54 13.46
2.80 4.29 5.00 5.71 7.14 8.93 10.71 12.50
3.00 4.00 4.67 5.33 6.67 8.33 10.00 11.67
3.20 3.75 4.38 5.00 6.25 7.81 9.38 10.94
3.40 3.53 4.12 4.71 5.88 7.35 8.82 10.29
4.00 3.00 3.50 4.00 5.00 6.25 7.50 8.75
source: ARG data, IKN estimates
You’ll note that I’ve highlighted four boxes on that spread table and by doing so, I’m still being
13

as conservative as I dare. There’s still every reason to assume the ARG yield might drop to 8%
or lower and if it does, there’s a logical path to a share price of C$4.00. This is from the guy
who doesn’t like pitching “Look At Me!” crazy price targets, but in this case the math is
undeniable. In my model, by shading those four boxes I assume:
 ARG pays its 3c/quarter standard dividend without fail (not difficult)
 ARG pays 18c of its theoretical 27c “Top-Up” (the other 9c/share equates to around
u$12m, that it decides to use for other purposes)
 Shares out go to 170m (that’s likely going lower)
At that point, even if the market won’t pay more than C$2.40 for a share of ARG, or 41%
higher than this weekend’s C$1.70 price, the stock still offers a yield of 12.5%! Under these
circumstances, a C$3.00 share price is easy to envisage and, assuming copper prices hold
where they are in the foreseeable future, once 2023 and 2024 look to deliver the same type of
regular, high dividend return it won’t take long for ARG to see its yield drop to 7.5%, a level
that’s still highly attractive compared to sector peers. So yes, a C$4.00 price target for this
stock isn’t difficult to imagine and even though I’m not calling it this weekend, be clear that a
constant copper market price of over U$4.00/lb will push ARG to those levels eventually, under
this highly attractive corporate policy.
The bottom line: I’m very glad this stock is my largest copper position, not least because it’s
spared some of my blushes about holding Aldebaran and Element 29 this weekend. More
importantly, the aggressive dividend policy as revealed this week by the company fully justified
its share price action of Thursday and Friday, with ARG on the rise as the rest of the market
peers fell. That share price appreciation will surely continue as long as copper prices find their
level above $4.00/lb, the value ARG offers at current prices is undeniable.
Stocks to Follow
When the Stocks to Follow notes begin with “it wasn’t all bad”, it means we just went through a
horrid week. We still ponly have 19 open positions, as the planned trade in Solis Minerals
(SLMN.v) didn’t open last week. Of the 19, two managed to return week-over-week gains
(ARG.to, CKG.v) and two others escaped unchanged (PA.v, MIRL.cse). That means 15 losers
and while it could have been worse among the largest positions, plenty of stocks on the list
took big hits. The biggest losses were registered in Aldebaran (ALDE.v down 18.8%), Abrasilver
(ABRA.v down 16.7%), QC Copper (QCCU.v down 13.0%), Newcore (NCAU.v down 11.3% and
Element 29 (ECU.v down 11.0%) as juniors in the copper and silver spaces were marked down
and then sold by a newly skittish market.
It’s our fifth week of the new Stocks to Follow presentation table. We have a total of 18 open
positions, two below our self-imposed maximum, of which ten are in positive territory, seven in
negative territory and one unchanged on its cost basis.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.60 185.7% $1.14 tgt, #1 idea on FY22 dev
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v STR BUY C$0.83 22-Apr-18 C$0.63 -24.1% $1.30 tgt May22 permit catalyst
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Amerigo Res ARG.to STR BUY C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.70 25.0% $2..40 tgt on FY22 guidance
Discovery Silver DSV.v STR BUY C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.40 -20.9% Best Ag play, 1st tgt $2.75
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v BUY C$0.275 25-Apr-21 C$0.235 -14.5% Now drilling. Easy hold
Superior Gold SGI.v STR BUY C$0.95 3-Apr-22 C$0.91 -4.2% Au prod jr, right place/time
Element 29 ECU.v BUY C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.445 -23.3% Cu exploreco w/ 2 Peru assets
14

SPECULATIVE TRADES
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v SPEC BUY C$3.07 20-Feb-22 C$3.02 -1.6% Au leverage, adding now (sm)
Abrasilver Res. ABRA.v SPEC BUY C$0.42 24-Apr-22 C$0.375 -10.7% 2nd Ag trade, Arg exploreco
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v SPEC BUY C$0.72 16-May-21 C$0.65 -9.7% Assay catalyst in Q1 and Q2
Strategic Metals SMD.v BUY C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.315 -25.0% Canada land bet+Zn in FY22
Palamina Corp PA.v SPEC BUY C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.15 -49.2% Au expl in S.Peru
Altiplano Metals APN.v SPEC BUY C$0.31 17-Sep-21 C$0.25 -19.4% Cheap entry, plan on track.
Minera IRL MIRL.cse hold C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.095 -51.3% CEO change will move stock
FIVE TRADE IDEAS FROM IKN670, March 2022 (yellow not owned, blue owned)
Meridian Mining MNO.v BUY C$0.88 20-Mar-22 C$0.90 2.3% tracking IKN670 idea
Superior Gold SGI.v see above 20-Mar-22 see above
Newcore Gold NCAU.v BUY C$0.51 20-Mar-22 C$0.43 -15.7% tracking IKN670 idea
Electra Battery ELBM.v BUY C$5.31 20-Mar-22 C$5.07 -4.5% tracking IKN670 idea
Western Copper WRN.to BUY C$2.41 20-Mar-22 C$2.30 -4.6% tracking IKN670 idea
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.67 6-Dec-20 C$0.65 -3.0% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
2015 to 2021 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for some notes on some of our covered stocks, but keeping it very brief this weekend.
Solis Minerals (SLMN.v) (SLM.ax): POSITION NOT OPENED YET. I didn’t take the 15c
offered early week and though 13.5c was available on Friday I didn’t buy any (because, in point
of fact, I was away from the desk doing non-mining things and didn’t pat attention). Therefore
SLMN isn’t on the above table as yet but, assuming this small trade opens in the days to come,
expect the new line item in IKN678 next weekend.
Abrasilver Resources (ABRA.v) and Discovery Silver (DSV.v): Another reminder of just
how much I hate silver trades, as well as any pretension I have about being an ace daytrader
with innate market timing (though it must be said, I’m under no illusions about the latter). This
five day chart does however show how both DSV and ABRA will be in the front line of stocks
ready to react to a silver price recovery, as the Fed Wednesday briefly saw the market pop
affect most issues.
Our other silver chart this week is here, rather than cluttering up the intro again:
15

In order to see these trades improve, the Gold/Silver ratio needs to top out in the next few
days and return to under 80X. For those into technical analysis, the RSI and MACD are
signalling near-term tops but that won’t stop the ratio from moving higher if gold predominates
as a safe haven trade over its cousin. To be clear, there are fundies and there are market
results and I’m happy enough with the fundies of the two silver company choices, it’s the macro
that concerns. Watching brief this week and no hasty decisions, but if silver doesn’t show
signals of bottoming, all the sound economic theory in the world isn’t going to save these
trades.
Superior Gold (SGI.v): Though volume trailed off, SGI saw no panic selling and performed
bang in line with the market benchmark GDX.
As I’m now fully bought in, that’s a neutral result. SGI seems to have strong support at 90c or
so, bargain hunters may want to consider that level.
Western Copper & Gold (WRN.to): I don’t
own any WRN, it’s one of the stocks picked out
in IKN670 for the New World Order of things (if
that’s not too pretentious) and sure enough,
WRN also got scorched last week by the
reversal in mining stocks, juniors and copper-
the-metal.
This weekend’s $2.30 price is the first time it’s
16

been under the nominal $2.41 start point of our coverage and may represent a real bargain if
our assumption is right and a bigger world mining player (probably Rio Tinto, but we’re not
precluding any name at this point) decide it’s time for them to buy and build their next copper
mine in a safe North American jurisdiction.
The other thing WRN did last week was to report its 1q22 quarter and while we’re not going to
give it as much space as our three owned positions in today’s fundies sections, let’s whip
quickly through the main points, starting with two overview charts from the balance sheet
WRN.to: Current Assets per qtr
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
What matters at WRN is its liquidity and cash position and we already see 1) liabilities are tiny
compared to current assets (check the Y-axes) and that during 1q22, WRN decided to tuck
more of its cash pile away in an interest-generating time deposit. That’s the move of a
prudently-run company that has more than it needs for its annual purposes. The resulting
working capital chart (below left) has our forecasts to 2022 year-end, which takes into account
the company operating expenses (below right) as well as the modest drill campaign budgeted
for the year. Clearly, even if WRN decides to triple the drilling there’s plenty cash on-hand.
All that means that the current share count of 151.84m isn’t about to change to a great extent.
Today’s C$2.30 share price values WRN at just
under C$350m, of U$280m at our house forex,
which values its 7.6Bn lbs of M+I copper resource
at 3.7c US. That without including the 14.5m oz
gold M+I, or the inferred resource (3.3bn lbs Cu,
6.6m oz Au). While we’ve gone over the quality of
those pounds and ounces in IKN672 and noted how
it will take decades to get them all out, this is still
an attractively sized project in the right area and at
this price, RTZ (or other) gets a mine that has
recently seen permitting de-risked and road
communication improve, all at an absolute size that
17
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1
C$m WRN.to: Liabilities per qtr
6.0
5.5
other current 5.0
St inv 4.5
cash 4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
source: company filings
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1
source: company filings
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LT liabs
current liabs
60 WRN.to: Working Capital per qtr
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 tse22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
source company filings
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WRN.to: Operating expenses 2
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1
C$m
other
share based comp
prof fees
wages & bene
G&A
IR/comm
source: WRN filings
200 WRN.to: Shares Out
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 tse22q2
source: company filings
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moves the dial of even the largest mining companies.
Chesapeake Gold (CKG.v): Volumes were
thin, but the move back above C$3.00 indicates
that CKG has fallen as far as it will before we
know more about the results of the detailed
met work on Metates, coming soon. CKG has
earmarked Q2 for the start of those results,
that may leak into the start of Q3 but either
way, we’re now close and by the tone of those
open letters included in the 2022 MIC (see last
week), there’s reason to be optimistic.
Aldebaran Resources (ALDE.v) and Element 29 (ECU.v): The combo of copper and
explorecos has been hit harder than the just about any other sector and our Stocks to Follow
list is not immune from the pain. This ten day
chart shows how Element 29 (ECU.v) was the
first to crack recently and then, after looking
vulnerable on low volumes for several weeks,
Aldebaran (ALDE.v) finally broke down on
Friday as sellers showed up and took the only
price on offer. The highly frustrating ALDE has
done itself no favours by telling the world that
results from its next hole are “anticipated by
the end of March” without any news in March,
April and now a full week of May. This at a time
of its obviously low treasury position and stated
intention to raise capital.
The Copper Basket
After eighteen weeks of 2022, The Copper Basket shows a loss of 20.94% level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/22 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Copper Mtn CMMC.to 3.42 210.166 542.23 2.58 -24.6%
2 Western Copper WRN.to 2.00 151.451 348.34 2.30 15.0%
3 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.77 88.028 324.82 3.69 -2.1%
4 Oroco Res OCO.v 2.04 203.4 299.00 1.47 -27.9%
5 Nevada Copper NCU.to 0.71 448.437 242.16 0.54 -23.9%
6 Hot Chili HCH.v 1.53 109.223 141.99 1.30 -15.0%
7 Meridian Min MNO.to 1.18 153.735 138.36 0.90 -23.7%
8 Regulus Res. REG.v 1.06 101.845 102.86 1.01 -4.7%
9 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.84 114.495 74.42 0.65 -22.6%
10 C3 Metals CCCM.v 0.16 645.379 61.31 0.095 -40.6%
11 Kutcho Copper KC.v 0.88 103.94 45.73 0.44 -50.0%
12 Doré Copper DCMC.v 0.79 66.123 45.62 0.69 -12.7%
13 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.58 79.24 35.26 0.445 -13.8%
14 QC Copper QCCU.v 0.34 129.06 30.33 0.235 -30.9%
15 Coast Copper COCO.v 0.13 41.335 3.93 0.095 -26.9%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg -20.94%
18

Last week was negative for the mining sector in general, bad for copper and even worse for the
smaller sized junior mining stocks. That put The
Copper Basket in the very centre of the storm and it 10% The Copper Basket 2022, weekly evolution
was one of those rare weeks in which all 15 of our 5%
tracked stocks went down in price. There were plenty 0%
of double figure percentage losers too, the list -5%
running from Aldebaran (ALDE.v down 18.8%), then
-10%
to Hot Chili (HCH.v down 16.1%), Coast Copper
-15%
(COCO.v down 13.6%), QC Copper (QCCU.v down
-20%
13.0%), Kutcho Copper (KC.v down 12.0%), Element
-25%
29 (ECU.v down 11.0%), Copper Mountain (CMMC.to
down 10.1%) and as it only missed the cut-off line
by a whisker, we’ll add in Oroco (OCO.v sdown
9.8%) as well. In fact, they all dropped by at least
6% bar the outlier Dore Copper (DCMC.v) which only lost 1.4%. A brutal week for this sub-
sector and overselling abounded, which makes the Amerigo (ARG.to) rally impressive indeed.
And now your author the confirmed copper bull needs to comment on this copper price chart:
I’m going to limit myself to “ugh”. The reason behind the sentiment change and the way the
July’22 Comex futures contract is now bouncing on the U$4.20/lb line is known, That’s mainly
due to the market’s reaction to the Fed’s 50 point base rate rise, but alongside the headline call
we also had the worst readings from China’s manufacturing sector since the first wave of the
Covid crisis, over two years ago. April’s Caixin/Market producer index fell from 48.1 in March to
46 in April (anything under 50 is a contraction), which mirrored the official Chinese politburo
reading of 47 in April, down from 49.5 in March. In other words, even the Chinese government
isn’t trying to fake the figures this time and that can be blamed squarely on the new wave of
CovidFears in China and its Zero Infections policy, but we now also know that Shanghai is
coming out of its imposed quarantine and there’s reason to believe China will re-up on its
industrial rhythm. After all, President Xi has told them to do just that (see IKN676). This week
sees China publish its import and export commerce figures and they are also expected to be
negative. Time will tell how much bad news has been baked in from last week’s strong selling.
The bottom line: Not a good week to be a copper bull, not a good month, in fact. However, the
Chinese Covid-related slowdown seems to be the strongest factor and as we’ve already seen,
those effects don’t last forever and allow rebounds afterward. Sometimes the right call is to
suffer a rough period, sit on one’s hands and do nothing.
Now for our weekly look at copper inventories, data from Cochilco:
 World copper stocks in the three official systems returned to the normal cycle and
added a total of 17,129 metric tonnes (mt) to stocks last week, the total approaching
19
ts1naJ ht9naJ ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6bef ht31 ht02 ht72 ht6raM ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3rpA ht01 ht71 ht42 ts1yam ht8
source: IKN calcs

300mkt once again at 297,758mt.
 A small addition to SHFE stocks after the big drawdowns of the previous two weeks, a
sign among many that the city and its business are starting to come out of the Covid
lockdown. SHFE copper inventory rose by 3,928mt to close at 52,291mt but that
doesn’t change the overriding message, stocks are still at emergency levels and for
more, see the dedicated charts, below.
 The big inventory move was once again at the LME, which continues to receive the
copper normally destined for the seasonal SHFE re-stock. The South Korea LME
warehouses continue as main beneficiaries, with overall stocks up by 13,975mt and
South Korea accounting for all but 200mt of that total. Just over 50kmt is on cancelled
warrant, which is a normal level for the time of year.
 The Comex saw stocks deplete by 774mt to close at 75,442mt, no biggie
Here are the dedicated SHFE charts, the second getting equal billing these days as it gives a
clearer picture of the looming seasonal problem:
Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2014 to date
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
20
31'13ceD dr32 ht02 ht51 ht01 ht5tco ht03 ht52 dn22 ht71 ht21 ht6pes ts1von 5102ht72ced ts12 ht71 ht21 ht7guA dn2tcO ht4ceD ht92 ht62 ts12 ht61 ht01 7102
ht5von
ts13 ht52 dn22 ht42 ht91 ht41 ht9 9102
dr3bef
ts13 ht62 ts12 ht51 ht01 0202ht5naj 0202ts1ram ht62 ts12 ht61 ht11 0202ht6ced ts13 ht82 dr32 ht81 ht21 ht7 2202dn2naj ht72 ht42
Mt Cu
|
source: Cochilco
SHFE copper inventory levels, 2018 to 2022
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
MT Cu 2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
source: Cochilco data
In any normal year, the period from now to end-June marks when SHFE’s stocks begin to
deplete once again. This year, there’s precious
little left to come out. Now for notes on a few
of the basket stocks and while we won’t dwell
on the sector-wide carnage too much, this chart
combining the negative performances of several
similar basket stocks. These are all explerocos
working in LatAm and drilling their respective
projects (right). They all suffered similar results
over the ten-day period depicted, all below the

sector benchmark COPX ETF (copper producer stocks). Here are two of those:
Hot Chili (HCH.v): Last weekend, we noted how HCH out-performed the market on the back
of a drill result that looked good as a headline, but in fact wasn’t much more than a decent infill
hole that will make only a minor overall improvement to the Cortadera target grade. The pop
didn’t last and HCH dropped sharply last week as a result.
Regulus Resources (REG.v): To pick unfairly
on Regulus (REG.v), here’s its 2022 YTD chart:
The drop in volume after the recent
disappointing drill assay makes this return to the
REG default level an unsurprising result. In fact it
could have ended worse but, thanks to a 25k
tape painter trade on Friday afternoon, REG
finished the week on the upper side of the
Loonie line.
The Producer Basket
After eighteen weeks of 2022, the Producer Basket shows a gain of 7.09% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/22 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 62.02 797.44 58.11 72.87 17.5%
2 Barrick GOLD 19.00 1779 39.89 22.42 18.0%
3 Franco-Nevada FNV 138.29 191.192 28.78 150.54 8.9%
4 Agnico Eagle AEM 53.14 454.904 26.10 57.38 8.0%
5 Wheaton PM WPM 42.93 450.3 19.88 44.15 2.8%
6 Gold Fields GFI 10.99 887.72 11.03 12.43 13.1%
7 Kinross Gold KGC 5.81 1296.5 6.38 4.92 -15.3%
8 B2Gold BTG 3.93 1055.6 4.55 4.31 9.7%
9 Alamos Gold AGI 7.69 392.503 3.01 7.68 -0.1%
10 Sandstorm SAND 6.20 191.4 1.29 6.72 8.4%
All prices and stock quotes in U$ Port. avg 7.09%
Another week of losses, with the GDX benchmark losing another 2.1% on the week. The GDXJ
drop of 3.5% suggests more pain for the smaller companies and indeed that was so, with three
of the top four performances in our list of ten from the three biggest market cappers. Overall
we saw three week-over-week winners (NEM, GOLD, BTG) and seven losers (FNV down just
0.4%, then AEM, WPM, GFI, KGC, AGI and the week’s biggest loser, SAND down 9.3%). If it
hadn’t been for SAND’s inclusion we would have clawed back some ground against the
benchmark but that will have to be for another week.
The 2022 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
35% comparative to GDX control
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
21
ts1naJ ht9naJ ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6bef ht31 ht02 ht72 ht6ram ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3rpa ht01 ht71 ht42 ts1yam ht8
The 2022 Producer Basket: Percentage difference
between GDX benchmark & basket (negative = IKN ahead) 6.0%
5.0%
ikn 4.0%
gdx control 3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
source: NYSE, IKN Calcs ts1naJ ht9naJ ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6bef ht31 ht02 ht72 ht6ram ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3rpa ht01 ht71 ht42 ts1yam ht8
source: IKN calcs, NYSE data

The large producers haven’t given up all of their gains as yet and they are clearly in a better
placed than the juniors, but it is notable how it took just three weeks to erase the gains seen
since Russia invaded Ukraine.
Sandstorm (SAND): We found out what SAND had been cooking last week and the market
hated the idea, dumping the stock by 10% on the news (3) of its deal to buy Nomad Royalty
(NSR.to) and a suite of royalties from Glencore at the same time, then immediately flipping out
the Antamina copper royalty from the Glencore suite into Nolan Watson’s new royalty vehicle,
Horizon Copper. I have no choice but to be honest: I have neither the time nor the inclination
to pick apart this complex deal and wonder whether there’s any value left as an entry point for
new shareholders. All I have here is an acknowledgement of the deal and its negative effect on
the SAND share price. It’s more important in this current market moment to watch and consider
the moves of companies that matter, for example Barrick.
Barrick (GOLD) and Kinross (KGC): Since Kinross (K.to) (KGC) “won” the race for Great
Bear and its Dixie project in Canada, this desk has not been the only one to posit the idea of
Kinross being bought out by Barrick (GOLD) (ABX.to). However last week, GOLD CEO Mark
Bristow laid that idea to rest once and for all when saying during the GOLD 1q22 earnings-fest
that his company had “no intention” of moving on Special K and, as noted in this Globe&Mail
report on events (4):
“….buying Kinross now in order to get Great Bear doesn’t make financial sense. In
fact, he doesn’t hold Kinross’s core portfolio of gold mines in Brazil, the United States
and West Africa in high regard. He characterized the assets as “marginal” and
compared them to cow dung.
In particular, Mr. Bristow singled out Kinross’s giant Tasiast mine in Mauritania as a
long-time laggard whose best days are behind it.
“The problem with marginal assets,” he said, “if you sit on them for 10 years, there’s no
juice left to squeeze.”
It’s not difficult to agree with the Bristow point of view, though in defence of the Kinross
position as well as part of my own previous argument for a deal, the same G&M report quotes
Kinross singling out its Paracatu mine in Brazil for particular praise. Your author has made
mention of Paracatu as “Stealth Tier 1” on several occasions and in the words of Special K
spokesperson Louie Diaz, “…the company’s Paracatu mine in Brazil is “world class.” Last year,
Paracatu produced 550,000 ounces of gold and generated a profit of US$384-million.” The note
closes the K defence with this:
“Mr. Diaz added that Kinross has substantially rebalanced and reduced the risk of its
portfolio over the past year by getting out of Russia. Last month, the company
announced the sale of its Kupol mine and Udinsk development project in Siberia to
Highland Gold Mining Ltd. for US$680-million.”
However, the above chart shows that K has struggled since buying GBR and despite doing the
necessary to dig its way out of the Kupol mess, has seen no market rebound for its efforts. As
for last week, GOLD out-performed the GDX benchmark and Kinross as from its earnings
morning. Though its key production and costs parameters had been pre-announced and there
were no big surprises left on operations, GOLD pleased the market by announcing a new
dividend policy that would return more excess cash from the balance sheet to investors, as
seen here (5):
In the unlikely event that net cash breaches U$1Bn at any given quarter end, GOLD will add
15c/share to its standard 10c/share dividend but under normal circumstances, holders can
reasonably expect the performance dividend segment to boost the total to between 15c and
20c. This is a strong statement of intent from GOLD to reward instos for long-term holdings and
the new policy was well-received, as seen in that 10-day chart.
22

The TinyCaps List
After eighteen weeks of 2022, the TinyCaps show a loss of 14.16% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/22 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Aurelius Min AUL.v 0.24 37.134 12.44 0.335 39.6%
Golden Pursuit GDP.v 0.13 34.638 4.85 0.14 7.7%
Infield Min INFD.v 0.06 48.276 1.93 0.04 -33.3%
Kingfisher Met KFR.v 0.30 84.57 13.95 0.165 -45.0%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.12 57.296 6.30 0.11 -8.3%
Manitou Gold MTU.v 0.06 344.47 12.06 0.035 -41.7%
Melkior Res MKR.v 0.295 24.011 6.96 0.29 -1.7%
Precipitate Gold PRG.v 0.105 129.322 11.38 0.088 -16.2%
Signature Res SGU.v 0.07 238.4 11.92 0.05 -28.6%
Winshear Gold WINS.v 0.08 61.585 4.31 0.07 -12.5%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg -14.16%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $20m. They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a
little and allowed sub-U$20m market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, but it was a particularly depressing exercise to trawl through the whole of the TSXV and find companies
that are small enough, but with life in them. The vast majority of sub-$20m stocks are broken stocks, either
traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2020. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
First the headcount and we saw just one week-over-week winner (GDP.v) and two unchanged
stocks (INFD.v, WINS.v), which means seven
losers and among them we saw plenty of hefty 15% TinyCaps, 2022 weekly tracker
losses. The biggest drop came from Latin Metals
10%
(LMS.v down 24.1%) and mentions are also
5%
required for Signature (SGU.v down 16.7%),
0%
Kingfisher (KFR.v down 15.4%), Manitou (MTU.v
-5%
down 12.5%) and Aurelius (AUL.v down 9.5%).
The net result more downside in the basket -10%
average as the previous signals of a creaking -15%
tinycap market turned into ugly reality. This type
-20%
of jag down action is what you see when
disappointed speculators throw in the towel on
tinycap penny stocks; when there’s no bid
waiting for determined sellers, it doesn’t take much in dollar terms to sink a tinycap.
Kingfisher Metals (KFR.v): The three things to know about this interesting speculative
possible at the moment are:
 The price got hammered last week and, as seen on this ten-day chart, the 16.5c close
wasn’t even the low of the week.
 KFR is due to start its 2022 drilling campaign as from this week, with shallow drills at its
most interesting targets that should get reasonably quick turnaround from the assay
labs.
 On April 27th KFR announced a $3m financing comprising of 28c Charity Flow Through
23
dn2naJ ht9
naJ
ht61naJ dr32 ht03 ht6bef ht31 ht02 ht72 ht6ram ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3rpa ht01 ht71 ht42 ts1yam ht8
source: IKN calcs, TSX data

units and 24c flow-through units. With the sudden drop in its share price, it will be
interesting to see if this raising round closes successfully (and there’s no reason to
make a move on the stock before it does).
This combo makes KFR a new and live
speculative fliptrade option in the weeks to
come and while I’ve registered my interest in
this potential trade on previous occasions,
readers should now consider it on my active
shopping list. There’s no rush to position and
the drop last week means there should be
plenty of room to get a bargain, sub-20c entry
point if the right conditions are met and for
that, I’ll want to see either the current equity
raise closing successfully or at the least,
announced as filled.
Latin Metals (LMS.v): This give a (sadly) typical example of what happens in these illiquid
tinycaps at time like these. Two editions ago in
IKN675 we noted LMS had sprung hard on little
real news and very light volume. As this ten-day
chart shows, it only takes only fairly modest
seller to unwind all those paper-only gains. The
Wednesday dump shows all the signs of a
single seller with a desire to leave and around
250k shares to dispose. The result is perhaps
$30k worth of trading removes $2m worth of
market cap from the company.
It’s up to you to decide whether the false
market cap reading was last weekend or this
weekend. Either way, you will always be
exposed to the risk of another determined seller doing the same thing to this type of tinycap
illiquid stock if you decide that 11c is a “bargain”. These stocks can go much lower before
snapping back.
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future
I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
Argentina’s FinMin talks up mining in Salta
Over two days last week, Governor Gustavo Sáenz of Salta played host to the nation’s
“superminister” of Production and Development,
Matias Kulfas and Minister of the Economy Martín
Guzmán, along with a large entourage as part of
the Fernández government’s policy to promote
and talk up its FDI plans and the country’s
“Economic Reactivation (in speechmarks because
it’s difficult these days to head a government
official talk without using that catchphrase). The
happy group visited the Fortuna Silver Lindero
mine (photo above) for an official protocol
opening ceremony and made a show of the 4th
edition of the “Tri-Province Lithium Workshop at
which they looked important while signing papers
24

that spoke of the government’s desire to move the lithium industry as quickly as possible. All
good, then in a keynote speech on Friday, FinMin Guzmán told the assembled audience that
now the country’s deal with the IMF was complete (quote translated), “Argentina’s in bilateral
meetings with G20 countries has changed completely. We’re no longer talking about the debt
(problem), instead we are discussing energy, mining agriculture and the market share that the
country is gaining in those sectors.” (6).
The other new snippet on mining that came from the
visit was to hear that FinMin Guzmán was
“considering” whether to exonerate the mining
industry from the proposed “tax on unexpected
profits” that was presented to Congress on April 18th,
i.e. a windfall tax proposal that’s mostly aimed at the
hydrocarbons and large-scale grain/soybean and beef
export sectors in Argentina, which have been
benefiting from high world prices (and now the State
wants its share). Guzmán has apparently listened to
the lobbyists in the mining industry who have
explained that a WFT at this moment would work
against any FDI looking to enter the country (and
they’re right, of course). At moments like these in
Argentina, when we hear a government “considering a proposal” it normally means the decision
has been made so we should hear soon the mining is not going to be included in the WFT law
project, after all (7).
Chile: The government is laying out its social agenda on mining
On Thursday May 5th the new admin at Cochilco, reporting to the new Gabriel Boric
government, sent out a call to (8), “Organizations representing Original Peoples of Chile….to
participate in the election of a counselor for Cochilco’s Civic Society Council”. This council that
goes by the acronym COSOC has to date been comprised of company representatives, union
representatives, organizations promoting women’s representation in mining and academia. As
from now we will also get Original People’s (the local equivalent to Canada’s First Nations). A
sign of the times, as was the news earlier in the week that Anglo American had seen its permit
application for its U$3.3Bn extension to its Los Bronces copper mine rejected by the
government.
That was the cue for wailing and protests from business circles about the Lefties in charge and
the negative signal to world markets. Indeed, if you read the English language media reports
(9) or the Anglo NR (10) it’s easy to come away with the impression that water is the issue and
that the Lefties were banging on that old drum. For example, here’s Reuters:
Environmental advocates have criticized the Los Bronces project, located near Chilean
capital Santiago, because of its potential impact on a local glacier as well as on water
availability for the region.
And here’s Anglo American:
The project uses the mine’s existing processing facilities, optimises water efficiency,
and requires no additional fresh water or tailings storage facilities. LBIP has been
designed with the benefit of ten years of scientific studies and a thorough and
extensive consultation process with local communities and the relevant authorities.
Mitigation measures will compensate for 120% of the emissions created by the project
and Los Bronces’ current operations, both during construction and in operation,
thereby improving air quality. The result is a project that has been configured
specifically to protect both the local environment, without any impact on biodiversity or
on the nearby protected areas or glaciers, and human health.
LBIP represents a multi-billion dollar investment in the future of one of Chile’s largest
copper mines and is an example of modern mining where the full range of
sustainability considerations have been consulted on and designed in from the outset.
25

In fact, the permit was rejected because Anglo refused to conform to the new and tighter
regulations on air pollution, basing its permit application on the reliance of air monitoring
stations around the mine. That was fine a few years ago, Chile now wants more proactive
measures and the rejection stated (translated) (11) “…the title holder has not presented an
analysis or re-qualification of the impact on human receptors”. The report goes on (translated)
“…as a consequence of the Project, a significant increase in environmental
concentration of airborne material MP-10 (in layman’s terms, dust) would be generated
in the area of direct influence, causing a potentially significant impact in air quality…”
What we are witnessing is an Anglo that didn’t get the memo and tried to get its permit by
following the “old rules” of the Piñera government, rather than toe the line to the stricter
standards demanded by the new Boric government (and it’s not as if the world weren’t
warned). However, the issue isn’t on water use and we should expect Los Bronces to get its
permits eventually. On the subject and to allay any fears that fellow holders of Rio2 Ltd shares
may have, those companies that have gone about their environmental permitting correctly in
Chile have been getting their EIA permits awarded. In fact since the start of the Boric
presidency, Los Bronces is one of six permits for large-scale civil works projects that have been
rejected, however a full 18 permits have been awarded in the same period. Unlike other
countries during political changeover periods, the government bureaucracies in Chile do not
grind to a halt.
And finally, we note this weekend how Chile’s Constitutional Convention (CC) has turned from
dangerous lion into meek lamb on mining. After all that noise about Chile nationalizing mining
we suffered from the ignorance up North, last week saw Chile’s Constitutional Convention vote
down all the meaningful law projects that tried to exert State control on the mining industry, be
it copper, lithium or other. The only real advance was to approve a general-sounding clause
about how Chile “exercises rights over mineral substances” in a resolution that will appear in
the draft Constitution, but is so generalized and vague it means nothing in practical terms.
Peru: Minister Energy and Mining faces Congress this week
In Last Week’s note, “The Ministry of Energy and Mining grinds to a halt”, we noted how Peru’s
MINEM was not doing its job or getting any permits emitted, mostly due to the fact that the
latest minister appointed by the Castillo administration, one Carlos Palacios, was under
investigation for being unqualified for his job. The knock-on effect is that no desk inside MINEM
wants to sign off on anything, else be accused of supporting the current minister.
That’s because inside the ministry, they all know the man should not be there and his days are
numbered and, sure enough, the news came last week (12) that Palacios, along with two other
current ministers (Interior Minister Alfonso Chávarry and Labour Minister Betssy Chávez) as well
as the current Prime Minister, Anibal Torres, will be formally grilled by Congress this coming
week and, if then voted down by the 130 Congress, they must resign. In the case of MINEM’s
Carlos Palacios it’s highly likely that he is forced to step down and if the others go the current
cabinet of ministers falls as well. This will cause President Castillo serious headaches and his
opponents more fuel for their calls for him to resign forthwith.
In other news, the new Pedro Castillo plan to bring a referendum to Peru on whether to change
its Constitution didn’t even pass committee stage in Congress, being voted down by 11 to 6
(13), which should be the end of this new presidential diversion tactic. All that’s left for this
dead duck presidency is to try to entrench and refuse to budge, that’s looking less likely as the
weeks progress.
Brazil: Lula begins his official campaign
The good thing about a Brazil presidential election is that it’s big enough for regular English
language reports. On Friday, Lula da Silva kicked off his official campaign to win back the
Presidency from incumbent Jair Bolsonaro and here’s France24 (14):
Former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva launched his campaign for a new
26

presidential term Saturday, vowing to rebuild Brazil after what he called the
"irresponsible and criminal" administration of far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro.
The campaign launch sealed a remarkable political comeback for the 76-year-old leftist
icon, four years after he was jailed on controversial corruption charges. "We're ready to
work not only to win the election on October 2, but to rebuild and transform Brazil,
which will be even more difficult," the charismatic but tarnished steelworker-turned-
politician told a rally in Sao Paulo.
Or AlJaz (15)
“We want to join democrats of all political positions, classes, races and religious beliefs
… to defeat the totalitarian threat, the hatred, violence and discrimination hanging over
our country,” he said to a cheering crowd.
Or Reuters (16):
SAO PAULO, May 6 (Reuters) - Brazil's leftist former President Luiz Inacio Lula da
Silva has turned to veteran comrades in his Workers Party (PT) to run his presidential
campaign, shoring up his base after appeals to the center raised tensions with the
party's old guard.
Although Lula has lured moderate voters with a centrist running mate and calls for a
broad center-left coalition in the October election, the most senior roles in his
campaign are so far going to his longtime associates and former PT ministers, party
sources told Reuters.
To tell you about it. As for the latest polling, this report sums things up (17) with your author
adding some bold type:
Opinion polls suggest Lula is on course to win his sixth presidential run since he first
tried to become the leader of South America’s largest democracy in 1989. One survey,
released on the eve of Lula’s announcement, gave him a 13% lead over Bolsonaro in
the first round and a 20% lead in a second round runoff.
Sixty per cent of voters said they would not vote for Bolsonaro – who is widely
blamed for mishandling a Covid outbreak that has killed nearly 665,000 citizens –
under any circumstance. More than 60% believe the economy is going in the wrong
direction, with rising inflation, high unemployment and a growing cost of living crisis.
“It’s Lula’s to lose, clearly,” said Felipe Nunes, the head of the polling group Quaest.
Nothing here that assiduous readers of The IKN Weekly’s Regional Politics section weren’t
aware of previously. We’ll follow the region’s biggest and most important election closely as the
year rolls out.
Colombia: The second round beckons, but…
…what will become of the third place votes? With Petro leading Fico by between 10 and 13
points for the round one election coming up at the end of this month, but unlikely to garner the
50%+1 vote to win outright, thoughts turn to the run-off and above all, what might happen to
the key bloc of votes for the current third placed candidate, the independent 77 year old run by
political outsider Rodolfo Hernández. How these votes filter into round two will likely decided
the contest and, according to the head of polling and research entity Estrategia & Poder
(Strategy and Power), one Carlos Suárez (18), “His votes will go to the candidate that best
profiles as the anti-government vote, that means Petro, even though there are some Rodolfo
supporters whose fear of a left wing President will be greater.”
In other words, we should expect a majority split of the 10% to 14% of votes for Rodolfo
Hernández in round one to go to Petro in round two. In other words, there’s still everything to
play for but those expecting to see Fico overhaul the lefty in the run-off need to re-calibrate
their risk. Petro remains favourite to be the next President of Colombia and if that happens, it’s
seriously bad news for the country’s mining industry.
Market Watching
Thoughts arising from the New Gold (NGD) 1q22 financials
This isn’t an extended analysis of New Gold (NGD), as I’m still undecided on whether there’s a
27

trade here or not. Instead, the charts and notes below are a way in to the thoughts and issues
arising from NGD’s 1q22 financials on Monday and their subsequent reaction. I’ve spent more
time on New Gold (NGD) than any other stock this week, first checking out the 1q22 financial
results on Monday (19), then chewing them over, then listening in on the Conference Call (20)
making a preliminary decision that the company were a borderline buy for a near-term trade,
then chewing them over again, then playing with the model, then watching the stock price sink
to lows on Friday, closing a tU$1.35 and leaving a market cap of U$920m.
This 12 month price chart of NGD (below) gives that context and we also note that NGD’s
price/book is back under 1.0X, the level normally assigned to dysfunctional operators.
Perhaps the headline net loss reported by New Gold (NGD) was the cause of the weakness and
indeed, for those who don’t look much further than headlines (which often includes algo
programs) the $7.8m net loss would not have won friends and influenced people. We also saw
lower than expected production from the New Afton mine, as seen in its copper production and
sales number:
NGD: New Afton copper production and sales, per qtr
28
2.22 3.12 4.02 6.91 7.12 5.02 8.02 7.91 5.91 2.02 6.12 3.81 1.02 6.02 3.81 3.71 5.81 7.71 9.61 3.51 2.81 5.71 5.81 5.71 8.31 3.31 2.81 9.61 6.51 41 2.41 2.41 2.8 2.9
24
22
20
18
16
14
12 10 8
6
4
2
0
81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1
Mlb Cu
Cu prod
Cu sales
source: NGD filings, IKN ests

The Q1 period tends to be the softest of the year, but even so New Afton’s issues meant a
significant drop in production. Meanwhile, the company’s main Rainy River mine met company
expectations even though its absolute performance didn’t stand out compared to previous
quarters:
NGD: Rainy River gold production
29
51915 60115 33694 12246 43766 31565 36155 58706 00507 59895
OzAu
90000
80000
70000
60000
50000
40000 30000
20000
10000
0
4q19 1q20 2q20 3q20 4q20 1q21 2q21 3q21 4q21 1q22
source: NGD filings, IKN ests
The resulting aggregate gold production was lower, but knock-on sale of both copper (above)
and gold (here) came to help a little:
NGD: Gold production vs Sales, Oz per qtr
41006 60106 12647 58407 19167 41657 25869 65048 91108 00109 86958 45948 99029 99768 94676 95527 51576 92596 72156 26616 61208 49867 69038 69088 70586 12356 15296 62407 83447 58196 61238 78808 26196 11617
130000
120000
Total Au prod
110000
Total Au sales
100000
90000
80000
70000
60000
50000 40000
30000
20000
10000
0
1q182q183q184q181q192q193q194q191q202q203q204q201q212q213q214q211q22
source: NGD filings, IKN calcs
Once those gold and copper sales were made, we ended with a top line revenue of U$174.7m
and as this earnings, overview here shows, once op-ex and DD&A are backed out…
NGD: Quarterly Earnings Overview
4.861
7.49
4.16 3.21
2.931 2.501
4.46
4.03-
3.241
7.98
25 6.0
5.821
2.66 6.04
7.12
7.371
7.68
7.94
3.73
9.891
3.79
8.05
8.05
9.461
9.39
1.54
9.52
2.891
2.59
2.15 8.15
8.971
6.88
1.84
1.34
6.202
6.99
3.15
7.15
7.471
2.59
8.84 7.03
250
225
200
175
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
-25
-50
91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1
$m
revenues
op-ex
deprec/deplet
Mine Op Earnings
source: company filings
…the resulting mine operating earnings came to U$30.7m.
To be quite honest, that’s not so bad for a company that’s being viewed as dysfunctional and
has just posted its worst quarter of a year in which it had already guided for improving
production at both of its assets in the second half of 2022. Here below is a chart with just the

Mine Operating earnings backed out…
NGD: Mine Op. Earnings
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
30
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1
$m
source: company filings, IKN ests
…and while weaker than previous quarters, was the product of production issues that are not
going to repeat (as long as NGD is good as its guidance word). What’s more, once you scratch
the surface of the financial results…
NGD: Cash generated from operations, per qtr
1.15 36
3.47
2.05
1.19
9.74 3.15 8.25
1.19
6.99
3.35
3.011
3.45
8.501
8.76
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1
U$m
source: company filings
…the actual free cash flow from operations was better than even those official GAAP-regulated
results indicate. Part of that is the good work NGD has done in improving its balance sheet over
the last few quarters. This chart gauging financing costs per quarter makes the moment when
when NGD retired a large portion of its debt burden abundantly clear and going forward, those
servicing costs are about to drop further:
NGD: BTL finance cost, per qtr
35
29.8
30
25 21.5
20 17.1 15.3 16.5 16.5 14.3 13.5 14
15
10 9.4 8.8 8.7 7.9 7.6
5
0
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 tse22q2
U$m
source: company filings
For more on that, we quote the NGD 1q22 MD&A:
In April 2022, the Company issued a notice of redemption to redeem the
$100.0 million aggregate principal amount of outstanding 2025 Notes on May
15, 2022. The redemption will be funded with cash on hand.
That’s a telling paragraph. The reaction to NGD’s quarter was to push the share price down to
the point where the Price/Book ratio went under 1.0 (again…ugh), but unlike previous
occasions and in particular, the strained period under ex-CEO Oliphant when the Rainy River
capex blowout posed an existential threat to the company, there’s nothing inherently wrong
with the financials these days. After all, what financially strained mining company prematurely

extinguishes $100m in debt paper? To reiterate the anomalous nature of these 1q22 financials,
we quote the filings a second time:
The Company currently expects to deliver on its 2022 guidance and its operations
continue to review optimization opportunities and assess cost reduction initiatives to
mitigate inflationary pressures. New Gold also continued to advance its longer-term
priorities, including advancing the development of the Intrepid underground zone at
Rainy River and the B3 ramp-up and C-Zone development at New Afton.
NGD hasn’t dropped guidance (and several mining companies did just that in Q1). At this point
I could wheel out half a dozen charts to cut and slice the numbers and show the relative health
of NGD’s balance sheet, but I’m going to limit myself to just one. As long as 2q22 production
improves in reasonable order, this working capital chart shows the company’s strong liquidity
position even after the retirement of that debt paper.
NGD: Working Capital per qtr
700
650
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
31
81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 tse22q2
source company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
Under this context, I strongly suspect NGD got a raw deal from last week’s market and once the
quarter is examined more closely, its current share price offers relative value to peers. The big
issue is whether the whole gold mining complex is out of its downdraft, because if it isn’t
there’s more downside in everything, NGD included. However, keep NGD in mind if and when
the sector rebounds because if history is our guide, New Gold is in position to rebound first and
fastest.
Conclusion
IKN677 is done, we end with bullet points:
 Not a fun week to hold mining stocks.
 However, even under negative circumstances, truly financially strong companies stand
out and create buying opportunities. While I am satisfied with the way Rio2 and Minera
Alamos are progressing, the news out of Amerigo now makes it a compelling buy
 As well as looking for the small opening trade in Solis this week, I’ll be watching the
broad markets more closely than normal. If it’s a good week, I’ll be witness to the
rebound in silver and copper.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stocks are Minera Alamos (MAI.v) and
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v). Flash updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best wishes, Mark

Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://www.kitco.com/news/2022-05-06/Silver-will-remain-strong-in-a-coming-recession-U-S-dollar-to-remain-global-
reserve-currency-Jeff-Christian.html
(2) http://www.amerigoresources.com/_resources/media/Amerigo-Resources-Q1-2022-Earnings-call.mp3
(3) https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/sandstorm-gold-royalties-announces-us1-1-billion-portfolio-
transformation-through-acquisitions-of-nomad-royalty-company-and-basecore-portfolio-301536938.html
(4) https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/article-barrick-ceo-bristow-rules-
out-kinross-acquisition-says-many-of-its/
(5) https://iknnews.com/barricks-divi/
(6) https://eleconomista.com.ar/economia/martin-guzman-ya-hablamos-deuda-sino-energia-mineria-agroindustria-
n52967
(7) https://econojournal.com.ar/2022/05/el-gobierno-evalua-excluir-a-las-empresas-mineras-del-impuesto-a-la-renta-
inesperada-que-buscara-aprobar-en-el-congreso/
(8) https://www.cochilco.cl/Paginas/Sala-de-Prensa/Noticias.aspx?ID=547
(9) https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/chile-recommends-denying-extension-anglo-american-copper-mine-2022-
04-23/
(10) https://www.angloamerican.com/media/press-releases/2022/03-05-2022
(11) https://www.elnuevosiglo.com.co/articulos/05-06-2022-archivan-propuesta-de-referendum-para-nueva-constitucion-
en-peru
(12) https://www.latercera.com/pulso/noticia/el-servicio-de-evaluacion-ambiental-recomienda-rechazar-los-bronces-
integrado-un-proyecto-de-inversion-de-us3000-millones/ILB5WZDWXZCNFCY2EA6WD37XXI/
(13)) https://gestion.pe/peru/politica/congreso-aprueba-interpelar-a-ministros-del-interior-trabajo-y-energia-y-minas-
alfonso-chavarry-betssy-chavez-carlos-palacios-rmmn-noticia/
(14) https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20220507-lula-launches-presidential-campaign-to-rebuild-brazil-and-
unseat-bolsonaro
(15) https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/5/7/lula-launches-official-campaign-for-brazil-presidency
(16) https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/lula-turns-partys-old-guard-brazil-election-battle-2022-05-06/
(17) https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/07/lula-launches-campaign-to-reclaim-brazilian-presidency-from-
bolsanaro
(18) https://www.semana.com/nacion/articulo/en-este-momento-no-hay-ningun-acuerdo-con-rodolfo-hernandez-sergio-
fajardo/202223/
(19) https://newgold.com/news-events/news/news-details/2022/New-Gold-Reports-2022-First-Quarter-
Results/default.aspx
(20) https://s28.q4cdn.com/380852864/files/doc_presentation/2022/May/NGD-Q1-2022-Earnings-Webcast.pdf
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Set-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Abr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
32

Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Ago-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Set-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Ene-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Set-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Ene-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Set-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Ago-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Abr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Set-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Abr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Set-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
33

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-ago-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-ene-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-abr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-abr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-ene-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-ene-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-abr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-abr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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