IKN #675Premium

The IKN Weekly
Week 675, April 24th 2022
Contents
This Week: Trade heads-up, In Today’s Edition, On Netflix and the price of gold.
Fundamental Analysis: Three planned trades: Overview, Adding Chesapeake Gold (CKG.v),
Buying Abrasilver Resource Corp (ABRA.v), Adding Superior Gold (SGI.v).
Stocks to Follow: Minera Alamos (MAI.v), QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v), Mene Inc (MENE.v),
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v), Amerigo Resources (ARG.to), Western Copper & Gold (WRN.to), Electra
Battery Materials (ELBM.v), Newcore Gold (NCAU.v).
Copper Basket: Overview, Oroco Resources (OCO.v), Copper Mountain (CMMC.to).
Producer Basket: Overview, Newmont (NEM).
TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Aurelius (AUL.v), Latin Metals (LMS.v), Precipitate Gold (PRG.v).
Regional Politics: Colombia: Petro’s lead extends slightly, Peru: Pressure on the Castillo
government Ecuador, Lasso government set to announce referendum items, Brazil: Latest
presidential election poll, Brazil: Belo Sun’s court date, Chile: The Constitutional Assembly votes
down the mining clauses.
Market Watching: Altiplano Metals (APN.to) 1q22 production, McEwen Mining (MUX) and a
lack of news, Addendum to last week’s “Silver is ready to move higher”.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
Trade heads-up
Our normal top-of-the-shop notice about trades planned. With cash available and new lower
prices on offer, I plan next week to make a small addition to the open trade in Chesapeake
Gold (CKG.v), an addition to the open position in Superior Gold (SGI.v) and open a new position
in Abrasilver Resource Corp (ABRA.v). All the details in today’s main fundies section.
In Today’s Edition
 Today’s main fundamentals section features the three purchases I plan for next week.
Two are not new trades to these pages, the additions to Chesapeake Gold (CKG.v) and
Superior Gold (SGI.v) have also been flagged up on previous occasions and editions.
 However, the move to buy Abrasilver (ABRA.v) is new and a direct consequence of my
new found bullishness toward silver in the weeks to come (see IKN674, last weekend).
Also, if memory serves its name has never been mentioned in any previous edition of
The IKN Weekly and until today, tracking of its development has been strictly in-house.
It’s not a perfect exploreco and I want to be clear that when it comes to quality, I still
prefer our only other dedicated silver trade Discovery Silver (DSV.v). Instead, the ABRA
purchase is all about adding leverage and a potentially fast win in the silver space as
long as the metal does what it looks like it’s about to do. We’re not betting heavily on
management, location or the long-term prospects of ABRA today, this is all about buy-
low-sell-high.
 In Top Pick news, after a kind reader pointed me in the right direction and then a
1

conversation with company President Doug Ramshaw, we have an interesting
development and potential new value-add at Minera Alamos (MAI.v). As for Rio2 Ltd
(RIO.v), the patient wait continues (and without staring too hard at the share price
fluctuations). See today’s Stocks to Follow notes for more on those and others.
 The Regional Politics section is keeping a close eye on the Colombia Presidential
election, as the candidacy of Gustavo Petro is a clear danger for the country’s mining
sector. The latest reliable poll out Thursday has some sobering information.
 Finally, I try on my tinfoil hat while updating some of the information from last weeks’
main fundies note on silver. The new Silver Institute 2022 report data suggests there
may be some number massaging going on. That’s in Market Watching.
On Netflix and the price of gold
Yes, yes, I know, I know. But no matter how yawn-inducing the stereotype goldbug “What’s
tech got to do with gold anyway? LEAVE MY BULLION ALONE, SILICON VALLEY!” rant might
be, there are occasions when the subject is relevant to our cause. So, in the same way a
butterfly’s flight path in West Africa can cause a Cat5 hurricane to hit the US Eastern
seaboard…
…this chart tracks the events of last week. The weakness injected into broad markets by the
Netflix dumpage on Wednesday saw gold sold down on Friday. Your sequence of events:
1) Netflix misses, the market sells the stock down brutally, the knock-on effect drags the
NASDAQ out of synch with the Dow and S&P (we use the Dow).
2) With the market weakened, the Fed’s Kabuki Theatre then gave us its “We’re going to
raise by 50 points” act, starting Thursday with the minor actors and culminating Friday
with Jay Powell’s appearance.
3) The Dow joined in the Nasdaq rout, dropped a thousand points (981…close enough)
and those are the days when the world’s trading desks reach for liquid assets to cover
their bare-assed margin positions. Paper gold (GLD) duly sold down.
The action in gold on Friday may have been unusual compared to the normal relationship
between bullion and broad markets, but it’s
something that shows time and again at moments
of sharp and painful sell-offs. The ready liquidity
offered by GLD makes its safe haven status relative,
trading desks take full advantage.
And this is where the good news begins because on
every other occasion when gold is sold down on a
day like Friday, both bullion and the PM stock sector
snaps back quickly, which is why this desk sees this
2

current moment as the time to move and change most of the available cash left in the portfolio
into precious metals mining shares. This looks like a window of opportunity and the reason why
I’m buying this gold sector dip. See today’s Fundies section for more on the vehicles, here we
stay with gold the metal and note that even with last week’s weakness, gold didn’t come close
to losing its technical support levels, as this chart demonstrates:
The underlying reasons to hold bullion didn’t suddenly alter in 24 hours, and the points from
last week’s intro, “The main message on gold”, remain intact. Here’s a reminder of IKN674:
 Russia’s aggression on Ukraine has profoundly changed the geopolitical world regimen. Unlike so
many other occasions, this time really is different.
 The peace dividend has disappeared before our eyes, with that change comes a wide range of
economic threats to the world. It also means policy tools used until recently won’t work any
longer, as Jay Powell and The Fed are finding out in real time.
 The Fear Trade is now prevalent. Be it good or bad that’s bullish for gold bullion and, as a direct
knock-on effect, positive for other metals prices and the share prices of mining companies.
That the “Fear Trade” got big enough to pull the Dow down by a thousand and spill over into
precious metals equities is a temporary thing, there was no tide change on show last Friday and
all we had was GDX and GDXJ following the broad market line downward while the selling spree
took place and yes, the weak Newmont (NEM) 1q22 financials that day didn’t help broad market
optics toward the sector one bit, either:
More on NEM in ‘Producer Basket’ below, but even as GLD was used once again as a source of
emergency cash and trading desk bailout fund, it was telling to see how the ETF’s physical
inventories didn’t budge. In fact, they are up by 4.64 metric tonnes from this time last
weekend:
3

GLD gold holdings, 2022 YTD (metric tonnes)
1150
1130
1110
1090
1070
1050
1030
1010
990
970
950
4
22/1/3 22/1/7 22/1/11 22/1/51 22/1/91 22/1/32 22/1/72 22/1/13 22/2/4 22/2/8 22/2/21 22/2/61 22/2/02 22/2/42 22/2/82 22/3/4 22/3/8 22/3/21 22/3/61 22/3/02 22/3/42 22/3/82 22/4/1 22/4/5 22/4/9 22/4/31 22/4/71 22/4/12
mt
source: SPDR GLD data
And the final chart for this week’s opener, the GLD Inventory/Price ratio (running from 2021),
shows the squiggly line at 6.12X and trying to climb away from the 6.0X momentum washout
level, which is a step in the right direction but also shows there’s plenty of room left to the
upside before physical stocks need to be sold down:
GLD: Inventory/Price Ratio, 2021 to date
7.00
6.80
6.60
6.40
6.20
6.00
5.80
5.60
5.40
5.20
5.00
4/1/1202 41/1/1202 42/1/1202 3/2/1202 31/2/1202 32/2/1202 5/3/1202 51/3/1202 52/3/1202 4/4/1202 41/4/1202 42/4/1202 4/5/1202 41/5/1202 42/5/1202 3/6/1202 31/6/1202 32/6/1202 3/7/1202 31/7/1202 32/7/1202 2/8/1202 21/8/1202 22/8/1202 1/9/1202 11/9/1202 12/9/1202 1/01/1202 11/01/1202 12/01/1202 13/01/1202 01/11/1202 02/11/1202 03/11/1202 01/21/1202 02/21/1202 03/21/1202 9/1/2202 91/1/2202 92/1/2202 8/2/2202 81/2/2202 82/2/2202 01/3/2202 02/3/2202 03/3/2202 9/4/2202 91/4/2202
Source: SPDR data, IKN calcs
What we saw on Friday was a temporary dip in the price of gold due to pure market liquidity
reasons. It wasn’t a sea-change in gold prices and it doesn’t matter what the Fed decides in
early May, be the headline 25 point, 50 points or even 75.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Three planned trades
Hang out our banners on the outward walls
Macbeth, Act 5, Sc5
Overview
On the blog Friday while priming for today’s edition, I wrote (1) “…A lot of things are coming
into place at the right time, including gold at the lower end of its recent range, metals futures in
the rollover period and a set of numbers from Newmont that are sinking the bigcaps from the
top down…”. I also said I’d take action on Monday, but on due consideration “ From Monday” is
probably better. Reasons:
 There’s rarely ever need to dive in first thing Monday morning, this weekend is no
exception.
 Fall-out from NEM’s miss probably has a day or two left to run. Stocks such as GOLD
and NEM are held widely these days and in the type of insto that makes large sell
decisions over the weekend, rather than at the moment. A little more weakness in GDX
would not surprise.
 Gold may react immediately tomorrow morning, but even the Tier 1 gold stocks are
likely to lag in the current nervousness and that’s doubly true with the junior companies

I target today.
 Metals futures are indeed rolling over but contract expiry for gold, silver and copper
(and others, if memory serves) isn’t until Wednesday 27th and First Notice for all those
contracts next Friday April 29th. The rollover period is famous for causing pain to those
who want to remain long and we’ve seen that already, but there may be a couple more
days of pain to squeeze from the market before metals are given their head again.
That’s the long-winded way of saying that while I’m a buyer of the three stocks featured in
today’s fundies section, I’m not necessarily a buyer of them tomorrow Monday. That said, let’s
get on with it and even if next week’s trades turn out to be precipitous, to quote the same
scene in Macbeth again, “At least we’ll die with harness on our back.”
Adding two, buying one
There are three planned trades, I plan to have them done by this time next weekend and they
are presented in order of size, smallest planned trade first:
1) Adding to Chesapeake Gold (CKG.v): I’ve nibbled twice, I’m going to take
advantage of this sub-$3.00 dip and as a seller has shown up, there should be enough
width to be able to place an honest bid instead of going through the annoying process of
fishing in a thin market.
2) Buying Abrasilver (ABRA.v): Today’s new trade is based on a simple premise; as I
think silver is showing plenty of upside risk and has the fundamentals in place to move
sharply higher (see IKN674, last weekend), I feel the need to add silver exposure. I’m
happy about holding the quality Discovery Silver (DSV.v) and its large, robust and
advanced Cordero project, but that’s closing in one a U$0.5Bn market cap on a pro-rata
basis once the derivative shares are made whole this year. The idea behind ABRA is to buy
a smaller, more leveraged play to silver in the current weak market for the metals and play
the leverage. ABRA isn’t the perfect stock, but it is a cut above the typical mediocrity found
in the silver exploreco, developer and producer sectors. There’s enough to like so, while
holding my nose slightly, will buy a few and look for a trade win on upcoming silver
strength.
3) Adding to Superior Gold (SGI.v): This is the largest planned purchase of the three
and is unlikely to surprise this audience. This addition has been flagged from the start, as I
bought a small first tranche at 96c and almost immediately rued the fact that the stock ran
as far as $1.15 without most of my position. But thanks to the coincidence of 1) last
week’s market sell-off and 2) as we anticipated, a light 1q22 production number from SFGI
last week, I get my second bit at the cherry after all. And I’m biting.
Intro done and for those who don’t want to go into the weeds, there should be enough by
now to get the idea. For the rest of you, we begin with the reasoning behind the small
planned addition to Chesapeake Gold (CKG.v):
Adding Chesapeake Gold (CKG.v)
Though I’ve bought and added recently, the position is still tiny and as noted last weekend, I
was open to adding some more. For once procrastination worked in my favour, as…
5

…when the market-wide weakness began on Thursday, CKG first broke under the recent $3.20
line, then Friday saw the first real trades go
through the stock for weeks. Those dumps
into the bid have all the look of a distressed
seller, which is the type of thing that
happens on days when the Dow drops a
thousand points (e.g. margin calls make for
difficult decisions, sales under duress, etc).
Anyway, we now have this price deck
(right), which is about as low as we can
expect CKG to go without the stock
collapsing completely. I’d go as far as the
say that it will be tough to see CKG lower
without getting negative results from the
company on its current metallurgy program
and, as the whole idea of taking a position
early in 2022 is to play the opportunity it affords, a purchase now that averages down makes
sense, more so when you read what both Chair and CEO wrote to shareholders last week.
Which segues us into CKG’s other new: We don’t usually get novel and interesting information
from your average Management Information Circular (MIC), the document filed to SEDAR in
preparation for a company’s AGM which gives details and numbers on aspects of corporate
structure and share count, as well as an overview of C-suite salaries. But in the case of CKG last
week, the MIC as filed also came with two cover letters, dated April 18th and filed to SEDAR on
Friday 22nd, that outline what the company has been doing and what we can expect for the rest
of 2022. First up was Chair Randy Reifel, here’s the interesting bit of his letter to shareholders:
“Looking back with the downturn in the global economy, we made a prudent decision to
maintain a healthy balance sheet and preserve capital. During this period Chesapeake
had an opportunity to seek and evaluate an innovative process technology that could
unlock significant value in Metates and emerge as a long-life intermediate gold and
silver producer. An extensive metallurgical testwork program underway is
demonstrating promising results which will be reflected in a prefeasibility study
expected later this year. Chesapeake has a strong treasury with $32 million in cash
and no debt. We are confident the investment in the innovative leach technology will
further de-risk Metates with significantly lower capital costs and attractive project
economics. As important, the technology will provide a strategic advantage to seek
accretive acquisitions both in Mexico and abroad. We are excited about Metates future
developments and the opportunities that lie ahead. Market awareness will become
evident and I believe will reward our long time, loyal and new shareholders.”
Interesting. From Chair Reifel we get 1) an update on treasury position, that remains strong as
CKG has been keeping quiet. Then 2) hints that the current extensive column leach met testing
is going well, and 3) confirmation that the PFS is on track for later in the year (this desk
expects 4q22 and would be okay about it showing a little earlier). It was then the turn of CKG
CEO Alan Pangbourne and again, if you want to read the whole thing go find your copy on
SEDAR, here’s the most interesting excerpt:
“We expect to have the first phase of metallurgical testing results later this year which
will be the basis for a prefeasibility study (“PFS”). M3 and our technical team are
developing the supporting civil infrastructure such as power, water, road access and
environmental monitoring that will be incorporated into the PFS. As CEO, I am excited
about the possibility of Metates becoming the cornerstone asset that will transform
Chesapeake into the next mid tier gold and silver producer. Moreover, with the heap
leach technology, we will be able to investigate strategic opportunities to acquire
additional refractory sulphide deposits to add to our development pipeline, reducing
risk through diversification and eventually multiple income streams. I believe the sulfide
leach technology will change the gold industry. Chesapeake continues to have a strong
balance sheet with $32 million in cash. As always, we thank all our shareholders for
your continuing support and trust. I look forward to talking with more of you this year
and sharing my enthusiasm about our future plans for our company.”
6

We again get confirmation on treasury, met
testing and the upcoming PFS from CEO CKG.v: Cash treasury, per qtr
Pangbourne, plus another dose of upbeat vibes
about how the test program is going. He even
goes as far as to suggest the Metates model of
“unlocking refractory” may allow CKG to pick up
similar projects and transform them, which on
reading between the lines, adds to the confidence
level they have for the current project.
The other useful snippet of information from this
year’s MIC is the update on current share holdings
of large players and major insiders. There are four
that matter:
 Eric Sprott, who owns 8,758,399 shares, or 13.0% of shares outstanding
 CEO Pangbourne, who owns 7,456,000 shares, or 11.07% of shares out
 Sun Valley, that owns 7,175,013 shares, or 10.65% of shares out
 Chair Reifel, who owns 4,591,278 shares, or 6.82% of shares out
That’s an aggregate of over 40% of shares out, so what these four says, goes. The decision to
add to the current CKG position comes on the back of our original analysis of the stock in
IKN665 dated February 20th, “Chesapeake Gold (CKG.v): A classic “optionality on gold” trade”,
after which I opened a very small position and then in recent weeks added another very small
slice. Even after next week this won’t be a big trade, the risk is still high and it’s all about
getting leverage from the current metals price deck out of a project with low grade but many
millions of ounces of gold. At this weekend’s price, the potential reward is more than enough to
see me add a few more and take advantage of market conditions.
Buying Abrasilver Resource Corp (ABRA.v)
The new trade and purchase on deck is Abrasilver (ABRA.v), a junior exploreco working in
Argentina and Chile that has made great progress in the last 12 months. For those of you
interested and looking for more information, this link to a recent webinar presentation (2) and
this one (3) to the company’s latest corporate presentation are reasonable places to start, as
long as you can filter out the rose-tint in the company’s marketing push. Today is an overview
of the company and the rationale behind what is designed as a near-term trade on silver
market leverage, rather than a buy’n’hold through to production or buyout. If things progress
well we can go into more of the nooks and crannies of the stock but today, I’m going to try
(hard) to be concise. Here’s the structure topbox:
Shares out: 475m
Options: 21m
Warrants: 121m
Fully diluted: 617m
Current share price: C$0.41
Market Cap: C$194.75m
Approx cash per S/O: 4c
All prices are in Canadian Dollars unless stated. Forex U$0.80=CAD$1
The quick hack into the recent history of ABRA is to consider the long-term price chart (below).
After a long latent period, after which the corporate title changed from “Abraplata” to its more
English-sounding name today, ABRA was one of the stocks that benefited from Eric Sprott’s
original rounds of funding at the tail end of the Covid-19 lockdown period.
7
826.51 13.51 608.41 432.61 852.51 11.51 656.41
264.43 842.43 220.53 2.33 637.13 718.13
23
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 tse22q1
C$m
source: company filings

Since then ABRA has done well, took Eric Sprott’s original interest and turned it into strong
drilling and exploration results at its main Diablillos (Little Devils) project in the Salta region of
Argentina. The flagship Diablillos is the reason to like ABRA, so rather than make up a
descriptive paragraph myself, let’s quote the company MD&A:
The Diablillos project covers an area of approximately 79km2 in the Salta Province of
northwestern Argentina and hosts epithermal precious metal mineralization in a
number of mineral occurrences. The main deposit is known as Oculto, and this silver-
gold deposit is surrounded by various satellite occurrences including the Fantasma Ag-
rich zone. To the north of Oculto lies the Cerro Viejo – Cerro Blanco copper-gold
mineralized zone and its related Northern Arc of gold-rich occurrences. The Diablillos
project was acquired by the Company from SSRM in 2016.
Last year 2021 saw plenty of progress at Diablillos, culminating in an updated PEA on the
property and we’ll check out its numbers in a moment, but ABRA hasn’t stood still since
delivering that 43-101 and is now in the end stages of its second stage 20,000m drill program,
designed to both expand the mineralized footprint and firm up the resource for its next major
milestone, a PFS due out next year. Between now and then we’ll also have a resource update
and from the looks of recent drill results, there’s every reason to expect both tonnage and
grade to improve on the current PEA count, a rarity in itself. But before getting to the project,
we run a brief overview on ABRA key players and then its financials.
Management and insiders: The star quality comes from the presence of Eric Sprott’s money,
guaranteed to keep retail eyes on company progress (and the traded volume has been excellent
over the last couple of years, too.) His scattergun approach to exploreco and junior investments
in these last three years means he’s backed plenty of disappointing companies and losers, but
the cheap entry points into companies that have delivered on plans are the ones people tend ot
remember In quick succession, Eric Sprott bought 60% a $5m financing priced at 11.5c per
unit (unit = share + full warrant at 17c), then added to his 26m shares by taking 36.48m of a
66.67m unit placement priced at 27c (unit = share + half warrant at 40c). That gave him a
15.8% position, or 24.3% if fully diluted and with those warrants now within months of their
expiry dates, we’re likely to see them exercised and his position to move to around 24% by the
end of this year. Those large warrant positions also mean that ABRA won’t be strapped for cash
as it moves its Diablillos project forward this year, as even with current treasury they’ve told the
market they are funded to 2023, the slated date for its Pre-feas study and a construction
decision on the project. The other major shareholder is SSR Mining (SSRI) with 9% of the
company, a legacy position as SSR sold ABRA its properties on an earn-in deal. Management
and insiders hold a thin 3% of company stock, which isn’t the best situation.
The people at ABRA are headed by Chair Rob Bruggeman, CEO John Miniotis and Chief
Geologist David O'Connor. Bruggeman comes from the equities analysis side of the business
and has worked at different levels in many junior mining companies over the years. When he
was VP Corp Dev at Tinka Resources (TK.v) I also owned the stock, he was always professional
and transparent in dealings with my person and others. Since escaping from TK (good for him)
8

600 ABRA.v: Shares Out
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
9 100
50
0
71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 tse12q4 tse22q1 tse22q2 tse22q3
source: company filings
serahs
fo
snoillim
he’s had other jobs and currently runs Canstar (ROX.v) as CEO as well as this gig. CEO John
Miniotis is also from the financial and brokerage sell side of the business and comes across as a
typical Vancouver promoter, plenty of superlatives about the company’s prospects and talking
up the potential for M&A and the future in true marketers terms It’s only a matter of time
before I see a webinar with him saying “The numbers don’t lie”, “We’re open at depth”, or
something of that ilk. The real experience comes from David O’Connor, a geologist with deep
experience in Andean deposits of many types, mainly working on projects in Ecuador, Peru,
Chile and Argentina. Thorough and not prone to hyperbole, O’Connor is the reason this
management team gets a pass.
Your condensed overview of people and share information done, we now check in on corporate
financials before getting to the project numbers, as they give a useful window on how ABRA
has grown over the last two years. The two charts showing main operational expenses are for
exploration/evaluation on site, then admin etc
ABRA.v: Exploration and Evaluation expenses
5
4.5 4
3.696 4 3.316
3.5
3 2.609 2.359
2.5
2 1.217
1.5
1 0.5520.4080.496
0.5 0.0960.004 0.05
0
Apart from the recent rise in share-based payments (we suspect the drilling company is getting
paid in paper) the story these charts tell is that of expenses acceleration. ABRA starter ramping
up activities on receipt of its funding, but more importantly that spend cadence has only
increased as the company has met success with the drillbit. As for the balance sheet items, with
liabilities negligible and development expensed rather than capitalized at this stage (the correct
way), what matters is the treasury position and subsequent working capital…
...which is in fine shape. In its latest corporate presentation ABRA declares current treasury at
$12m and that’s enough to get it to a production decision at Diablillos, which is a bit of
showmanship more than a real threat as the project capex is slated at U$255m so to see this
built the company needs to find a buyer first.
However, we’ll get to the other side of a PFS
without any problem and with ITM derivatives
adding funds, cash should remain healthy. The
only other chart for today is shares out and while
the current count is 475m, we should at least
assume another 90m share become whole by the
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 tse12q4
$m ABRA.v: Admin expenses
1.6
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
source: company filings/IKN ests
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3
C$m other exp
share payments
salaries etc
prof fee
G&A
cons fee
source: company filings
ABRA.v: Assets
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 tse12q4 tse22q1
$m 24 ABRA.v: Working Capital per qtr
22
20
fixed
18
other current 16
cash 14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
source: company filings
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 tse12q4 tse22q1
source company filings
srallod
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snoillim

end of 3q22. Overall, for valuation purposes it’s best to consider the fully diluted total of shares
for any eventual M&A or buyout scenario. That makes ABRA a U$200m pro rata market capper
approximately, hardly the cheapest exploreco out there but when it comes to silver, valuations
of live candidate stocks tend to be high.
The Diablillos project: So what do you get for your money? While it does have second string
projects in Chile (La Coipita and Las Arcas), the reason to like ABRA at this market cap is
Diablillos and for today’s note I’m going to be as concise as possible and use visuals from the
PEA and the company’s latest corporate presentation, starting with this project map:
Argentina used to be automatic bad news as a location for your exploreco. These days things
are okay as long as you’re in the right province and Diablillos is in Salta, one of the friendliest
places to go exploring and mining in the country. We also see the company’s proximity to other
projects, including the Posco and Borax
lithium project with which ABRA shares
offices and accommodation infrastructure,
close to site. Salta also hosts the recently
ramped-up Lindero gold mine (Fortuna
Silver) and the large Taca Taca copper
project (First Quantum) nearby.
This second map (right) shows the
interesting part of the concession, including
the Oculto zone to the Southwest that
contains most of the current resource. This
map not only gives location but also an
indication of the prospectivity of the total
concession area.
The third map today (below) is a
representation of Oculto and surroundings,
with drill holes mapped and the distribution
of shallower gold and the main silver zone,
deeper in the oxides and also in the transition. We see how the deposit is open to expansion on
flanks and how recent drilling at the North East zone has already added to the theoretical pit
shell, as well as the deeper levels of what’s known as the Tesoro Zone. More on that below.
10

As for the total resource, here’s a table:
There’s more to this than a simple table and for those who care enough, it’s worth studying the
PEA to get a better handle on what’s been discovered to date, along with the limited metallurgy
done so far, grades and supposed kinetics. But cutting to the chase today, we move to the
economic criteria of the current PEA, summed up in this table:
From those parameters, and using base case metals prices of U$24/oz silver and U$1,650/oz
gold, the PEA produces a project with a $364m NPV using a 5% discount with a robust IRR of
30.2%. The size, mine life and average annual production schedule make this a mine worthy of
consideration by most silver companies and with the company now on track to deliver a PFS in
early 2023, we can expect ABRA to continue to bring significant newsflow to the market.
So far so good and Diablillos is a worthy project, but this month has also brought new and
significant developments to the story. The NR dated April 11th (3a) went with this title:
“AbraSilver Reports Best Intercept to Date From Current Drill Program at
Diablillos 140 Metres Grading 301 g/t AgEq (4.3 g/t AuEq)”
In Anglo-Saxon, that’s a stonking hole. As usual, a careful study of the whole NR is
recommended and came with other strong drill results, but just taking the lead hole 004
section, we see how ABRA has hit the highest grades so far in the heart of Diablillos as part of
its resource definition and expansion program. This hole, as well as other expansion holes, will
form part of the resource update coming at the end of this year and in the words of the NR,
“This wide high-grade intercept of gold and silver mineralization is expected to add substantially
11

to the Measured Mineral Resources at Oculto.” In other words, ABRA is currently putting
another 20,000m into its PEA resource in order to expand and firm up the numbers for the
upcoming PFS and rare indeed are resources that increase in reliability, tonnage AND grade at
the same time during this phase. ABRA at Diablillos is now on course to do just that, so inflation
or not is looks as though project economics will improve significantly in the next 43-101
technical report.
This excellent cut didn’t go un-noticed by the market (below right). Much like Superior Gold
(see below), Abrasilver looked as though it was
about to slip the field on the back of this market-
moving hole (as well as the other metres into the
project) but the market reversal of last week
brought ABRA back down to earth. This is the
opportunity presenting itself today and why, on
due consideration, I’ve plumped for Abrasilver as
my silver leverage trade to take advantage of the
forecast improvement in silver prices, as seen
last weekend.
ABRA is a riskier proposition than the strong and
very large Discovery Silver (DSV.v), but then
against it’s 40% of its market cap. It’s attraction
is as a newly interesting, majority silver development project that’s coming into market favour
at the right time. As a vehicle for a near-term (or perhaps medium-term) bet on silver’s future
in 2022, it offers the right mix of momentum, liquidity, size and prospectivity that puts it ahead
of the silver exploreco pack.
Adding Superior Gold (SGI.v)
On Monday April 18th, our new leverage to gold producer trade Superior Gold (SGI.v) reported
its 1q22 production and sales results (4). and, while we need to wait for the financials to get
the full picture, there’s enough in last week’s NR to get an idea of the company’s current
position and make a call on whether to add, hold or sell. I’m adding, as seen in the title.
We’ve run two analyses of SGI in recent editions of The IKN Weekly, firstly an intro note in
IKN670 dated March 20th, the day we unveiled the five stocks this desk believes are suited to
the new macro market backdrop, then in IKN672 dated April 3rd, we ran a dedicated not eon
the company and decided to buy a first foothold position. IKN670 mentioned how 1q22
production was set to be the weakest of the 2022 financial year and I used that as the excuse
not to buy any shares at that point. Here’s a small quote from that text by way of reminder:
“…there’s every chance that we could get a better entry point in the days and weeks
ahead. That’s because SGI in 1q22 is due to shut down for 14 days for scheduled
maintenance and, as a result, is unlikely to deliver a set of sparkling 1q22 production or
financial results. So I’m biding my time on an entry but that could be my stupid mistake,
as there’s no doubt about the value on offer in this small but newly trustworthy
company thanks to the margin gold now brings to its financials.”
12

Come IKN672 I relented and bought a small opening position, after which the stock ran hard
and peaked at $1.15 or so, the week before last. Then came the 1q22 production report last
Monday and, while SGI spent Monday trying to decide, after sleeping on the results began to
sell down on Tuesday. Then when the big Fed-led sell-off came Thursday, SGI was ready to
find sellers and here we are, Sunday April 24th with SGI spending the weekend at 97c. that’s 2c
over the price of IKN670 and a penny more than I paid three weeks ago, which means that
without offering a deeper bargain to date, it’s back at an eminently buyable price.
With the scene duly set, we can now move to the SGI 1q22 production results but before we
get there, two links. Here’s the company NR from Monday, but usefully, CEO Chris Jordaan also
provided a five minute YouTube segment in which he outlined the salient points from the NR so
find that here (5). It’s useful to get a walk-thru on the results from the CEO so go take a look,
as according to Jordaan:
 Covid-19 negatively affected operations, particularly in March
 Grade was in-line with company expectations
 SAG mill shutdown went as scheduled
 The company ended March with 924oz inventory
 Also, March ended with a mineral inventory build-up of 30kt of over ground, which
should get recognition in the company’s inventory numbers this quarter.
 Cash ended at $19.9m, which was according to CEO Jordaan higher than the company
had budgeted.
 With the scheduled shutdown complete, they plan to up annum run rate to reach 2m
tonnes annual run rate by 4q22.
 Finally we get the resource and reserve update “in the coming weeks” and while there
were no clues, we expect resource development and higher numbers.
All that is good background information and SGI under its new CEP should be applauded for its
transparent approach, as that above list contains plenty that we get gauge future performance
and financial results against as the year goes on. But the rubber hits the road in the data, so
from here we dial up the tracking charts, starting with gold production and sales:
SGI gold production and sales
13
25302 10812 35391 63802 92002 04981
79752 24852
50391 40522
73932
00971
99881
05861
63551 29451 55851
83571
99091 28291 34112
32851
00022 00022 00022
30000
27500 25000
22500
20000
17500
15000
12500
10000
7500
5000
2500
0
61q4 71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 tse22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
Oz Au
Au prod
Au sold
source: SGI data

Our estimated production and sales for 1q22 was 19,000oz and while we were always eyes
wide open on the soft quarter, but production
of 16,747oz Au ounces and sales of 15,823oz
Au were lower than expected, no two ways
around that. We were expecting a lower mill
throughput and that happened, 359,872
metric tonnes was down on the previous two
quarters and that’s the 14 days of downtime.
The lower than expected 1q22 production and
sales came from a combo of a slightly lower
than average recovery rate of 85% and a
milled grade average of 1.71 g/t gold. The
average head grade at mill made the
difference and was driven by the lower than
expected stope grade mined of 2.58 g/t Au. The
company expects those grades to improve as
the rest of the year goes on, however.
Therefore, it wasn’t just the scheduled mill stoppage, the low quarter was aggravated by
slightly lower grades than expected as well. That allows us to make a best guess at the
operational results and what we can expect from the numbers when they show. We’re not
given an average sales price, but if we use our previously modelled U$1,850/oz for the 1q22
period (LME fix average was around U$1,884/oz for the 1q22 period), sales come to U$29.3m
and at this point, we remind readers that SGI reports in US Dollars. As for costs, we know it’s a
FIFO operation and costs are not particularly flexible. There will be some operational savings
due to mill downtime, however we’ve also seen inflation hit and, as reported in the NR on
Monday, Covid in WA Australia became an issue. Therefore our new best guess is U$28.0m for
costs in the quarter just gone.
SGI: Revenues vs Costs
14
4.92 5.13 6.13 3.33 6.62 8.92 0.82 0.82 5.62 7.32 0.52 2.42 2.72 6.52 4.72 1.72 2.13 9.62 4.43 5.92 2.43 3.82 8.73 4.92
3.92 0.82
0.24
0.23
0.24
0.23
0.24
0.23
45
40
35
30
25
20 15
10
5
0
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 tse22q1 tse22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
SGI: Total material milled
U$m
Revenues COGS
source: company filings
However, before continuing you can also see why I’m interested in buying this stock on the
back of these low 1q22 numbers. I have deliberately kept 2q22, 3q22 and 4q22 unadjusted for
the new and sharper ramp-up that should see SGI producing at a 100k/annum rate come 4q22,
000513
315883 760734 885054 088414 540334 801514 000814 000663 000493 000083 000663 000653 000953 000504 000983 278953
500000
450000
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1
tonnes
source: company filings
SGI: Milled gold average grade, per qtr
4.2
4
3.8
3.6
3.4
3.2
3
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
2
1.8 1.6
1.4
1.2
1
61q4 71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1
g/t Au
stope grade mined
grade milled
SGI: Gold recovery grades
source: company filings
%68 %09 %78 %78 %88 %78 %58 %48 %28 %48 %28 %48 %68 %88 %68 %78 %58
100%
95%
90%
85%
80%
75%
70%
81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1
source: SGI data

neither have I factored in delayed sales from inventory from 1q22 (see below). The U$10m
gross margin per quarter you see is predicated on conservative parameters but even so, it’s the
reason why we believe SGI is a buy now, before the real improvements start to run through the
financials.
That low gross margin of U$1.3m in 1q22 gives us an operating loss estimate of U$0.9m for the
quarter:
SGI: Revenues and operating earnings, per qtr
15
870.3- 92.2- 803.4- 619.3-
411.1
324.0- 793.0- 548.1-
412.2 927.2 826.3
489.5
9.0-
5.7 5.7 5.7
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 tse22q1 tse22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
U$m
Revenues Op income
source: company filings
After that, the cash should start to flow nicely in 2q22 and beyond. Our final P+L chart
forecasts a net loss of U$2.5m for the quarter, the last soft one before things get a lot better as
long as the company delivers on expectations:
SGI: Operating, pre-tax and net earnings
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 tse22q1 tse22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
U$m
Op income
pre-tax income
Net income
source: SGI filings
And here’s that in EPS terms: We get the dip this quarter, which explains U$2.5m of the
U$3.9m drop we see in the cash treasury position. After this quarter, things get a lot better and
if we can take CEO Jordaan at his word, they’ll stay there.
SGI: operating income and net income per share
0.07
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
0.00
-0.01
-0.02
-0.03
-0.04
-0.05
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 tse22q1 tse22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
U$
Op Inc/share
net EPS
source: SGI filings, IKN ests
As for that declared cash position, U$19.9m sits against what we’ve seen and what we’re
expecting in this way:

40 SGI: Cash treasury per qtr
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
16
61q4 71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 tse22q1 tse22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
source: company filings/IKN ests
srallod
fo
snoillim
At U$19.9m, there’s no liquidity issues at SGI due to this soft quarter. We also expect cash to
start building back as from the next quarter as long as SGI delivers on its 2022 guidance (which
was reiterated by CEO Jordaan last week). We’ll do the rest of the balance sheet items when
SGI reports its quarter and as that normally happens in the second week of May (3rd max), we
don’t need to wait too long, so just one final balance item today, that of inventory: The addition
of stockpile and unsold doré as reported by CEO Jordaan on Tuesday suggests this item will
bolster the balance sheet. We’ve seen this before from SGI, in fact except for last year it was
common to see this pattern. Today’s inventory spikes are tomorrow extra revenues, which
bodes well for 2q22.
SGI: Total Inventory
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 tse22q1
U$m
dore on hand
gold in circuit
stockpiles
consumable stores
source: company filings
Finally, we need to mention the other NR from last week, out Wednesday 20th (6). In it SGI
reported on new drill assays with particular attention paid to decent 4.3 g/t cuts from a new
zone close to current stopes and amenable for near-term development. Along with exploration
and development at Hermes South and the exciting prospect of accessing the area that, until
last month, was embargoes due to the lawsuit with Vango, there’s plenty of reason to expect
SGI to deliver strong exploration results going forward. However I’m going to leave this subject
for another day, probably three weeks’ time when the company reports its quarter.
Discussion and conclusion: To begin, let’s check the trade theory as set out in the first
mention of Superior Gold (SGI.v) this year in IKN670, to the reality so far:
 Theory at the time: It was 95c, we expected a soft 1q22 quarter of production and 19,000oz
produced, which may have offered a cheaper entry point.
 Reality to date: SGI moved up sharply and touched $1.15, the soft quarter happened with
16,747oz Au produced, the stock came back down and is now 97c
I’d class my soothsaying on this occasion as “close but no cigar”. We did alter the plan slightly
and buy a small first tranche just before SGI lifted off a couple of weeks ago, but so far at least
there’s been no opportunity to buy in at under the original 95c price, even though 1q22 gold
ounces came in substantially lower than our guesstimate.
However, reality is what we have to deal with and while the price (so far) hasn’t suggested a

return to the 80s, at least there’s the opportunity to buy in at a sub-Loonie level and load up to
heart’s content. Therefore, with the 2022 soft quarter now behind us and the likelihood of
things getter better for the rest of this year and into 2023, I’m goings to take the opportunity to
add to my position in the week ahead. If you’re thinking of joining me on the trade, there are
two caveats:
1) The selling in the gold sector may not have finished on Friday, so there’s no need to
take the first price on Monday morning (and this counts more than with the planned
CKG addition, this one will be a fair add).
2) The above financial estimates suggest that SGI will return an operating and net loss
when it reports in three or so weeks’ time. That might also cause market
disappointment, so if you’re buying in this coming week, have eyes wide open that the
soft period may not be quite done with.
However, the general plan of taking advantage of SGI’s weakest quarter of 2022 is a good one
and with the company now back on track under its new and diligent management team (see
IKN670 and IKN672), now is the time to position. We should see SGI leave 2022 with a
25,000oz quarter of production tucked under its belt and then the next stop will be to re-start
the second SAG mill, up throughput further using available open pit feed and during 2023, get
the company to the 150,000oz per year run rate it promises in its literature.
At 122.9m shares out and our house 0.8/1 forex, today’s C$0.97 share price puts this producing
gold operator with tons of growth potential and a solid financial base at a market cap of
U$95.3m. The management under CEO Jordaan has delivered on all promises since taking over
and with a clear plan to get to its next milestone of 100k oz/annum run rate, this company is
priced very cheaply compared to upside potential with gold trading where it is. Our forward
guidance is based on quarters of 22,000 oz and U$1,900/oz gold, so if this FIFO mine with
standardized costs on a quarterly basis starts delivering 25k oz and selling them at U$1,950/oz,
it brings even more leverage to the table and all the earnings surprises become good ones. It
fundamentals make SGI a compelling bargain at any price under C$1.00 and next week, I take
full advantage. Expect a further update on the company in three or four weeks’ time when it
reports its 1q22 financials.
Stocks to Follow
Some weeks are better than others. There were 12 week-over-week losers from our list of 18
open positions, so it’s not as if the headcount was the worst ever. It was the scale of the losers,
instead:
 Western Copper (WRN.to) down 17.9%
 Altiplano Metals (APN.v) down 14.1%
 Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v) down 13.9%
 Superior Gold (SGI.v) down 12.6%
 Chesapeake Gold (CKG.v) down 12.3%
 Meridian Mining (MNO.to) down 10.1%
 Discovery Silver (DSV.v) down 9.6%
And that’s without mentioning the losers in the 5% and 7% range, though somehow we also
managed to finish the week with one unchanged stock (QCCU.v) and five winners (ECU.v, PA.v,
MIRL.cse, NCAU.v, MENE.v). And while the hit to the portfolio is real and hurts accordingly, as a
buyer and not a seller I can’t really complain too much now there are cheaper entry points
available.
It’s our fifth week of the new Stocks to Follow presentation table. We have a total of 18 open
positions, two below our self-imposed maximum, of which ten are in positive territory, seven in
negative territory and one unchanged on its cost basis.
17

company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.69 228.6% $1.14 tgt, #1 idea on FY22 dev
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v STR BUY C$0.83 22-Apr-18 C$0.68 -18.1% $1.30 tgt May22 permit catalyst
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Amerigo Res ARG.to STR BUY C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.64 20.6% $2..40 tgt on FY22 guidance
Discovery Silver DSV.v STR BUY C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.70 -4.0% Best Ag play, 1st tgt $2.75
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v BUY C$0.275 25-Apr-21 C$0.285 3.6% Now drilling. Easy hold
Superior Gold SGI.v ADDING C$0.96 3-Apr-22 C$0.97 1.0% IKN670 idea, ADDING NOW
Element 29 ECU.v BUY C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.58 0.0% Cu exploreco w/ 2 Peru assets
SPECULATIVE TRADES
Gold leverage, adding now
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v ADDING C$3.26 20-Feb-22 C$2.82 -13.5% (sm)
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v SPEC BUY C$0.72 16-May-21 C$0.80 11.1% Assay catalyst in Q1 and Q2
Strategic Metals SMD.v BUY C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.35 -16.7% Canada land bet+Zn in FY22
Palamina Corp PA.v SPEC BUY C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.165 -44.1% Au expl in S.Peru
Altiplano Metals APN.v SPEC BUY C$0.31 17-Sep-21 C$0.275 -11.3% Cheap entry, plan on track.
Minera IRL MIRL.cse hold C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.09 -53.8% CEO change will move stock
FIVE TRADE IDEAS FROM IKN670, March 2022 (yellow not owned, blue owned)
Meridian Mining MNO.v BUY C$0.88 20-Mar-22 C$0.89 1.1% tracking IKN670 idea
Superior Gold SGI.v see above C$0.95 20-Mar-22 C$0.97 2.1% see above
Newcore Gold NCAU.v BUY C$0.51 20-Mar-22 C$0.51 0.0% tracking IKN670 idea
Electra Battery ELBM.v BUY C$5.31 20-Mar-22 C$5.66 6.6% tracking IKN670 idea
Western Copper WRN.to BUY C$2.41 20-Mar-22 C$2.43 0.8% tracking IKN670 idea
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.67 6-Dec-20 C$0.70 4.5% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
2015 to 2021 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for some notes on some of our covered stocks, but keeping it very brief this weekend.
Minera Alamos (MAI.v): On Thursday, MAI President Doug Ramshaw presented at an online
webinar on the latest from the company and you can match the recording on this link (7) (I
believe you need to register, but it’s free of charge). The title of the presentation is “Building
low capital intensity mines in an inflationary environment” and while it’s worth the time of any
shareholder to watch the whole thing, I will mention here that President Ramshaw took time to
talk over the title of the talk before diving in. His view is that MAI is in a good position to ride
the inflationary wave, thanks to its business model. As for the rest of the presentation,
President Ramshaw gives a thorough walk-through of the latest corporate presentation, slide-
by-slide. Those of us who follow the company closely would have heard all the points made but
it’s always good to get a refresher and there are a few angles that get a little more detail.
In other news and also on Thursday, A. Reader pinged this desk to ask whether I’d read the
conversation going on that day at the CEO.ca MAI.v chatroom (8). I hadn’t, so I went over and
found this as the main point of the exchanges between President Ramshaw (his handle is
“TheGalvanizer”) and the room:
18

And then:
That’s interesting. Los Verdes is located contiguous to its nearly-commercial mine at Santana
and was the project most on MAI’s mind before its merger with Corex (the moment Doug
Ramshaw joined the fold). In essence, Los Verdes is a copper/moly project and if you go back
to 2012, even has a PEA published on its potential. While the economics and input costs of that
PEA are long out of date, rocks are rocks and don’t change much so, as long as we take the
cut-offs with a grain of salt, here’s how the mineralization stacks up:
Measured and Indicated 7,705,000 metric tonnes grading 0.64% Copper,
0.12% Moly, 4.74% Silver and 0.07% Tungsten.
There’s also a very small inferred at lower grades, plus to the North of Los Verdes is an
exploration target (prosaically named “El Norte”) that has shown mineralized of 0.5% Cu and
0.1% Mo from some early results. On the back of the known mineralization, in 2012 the
company envisaged a 3,000 to 3,500 tonne per day (tpd) open pit operation that saw
recoveries of the main copper and moly at 85%, producing around 19,000mt per annum of
clean, high quality 32% Cu concentrate, as well as around 2,000mt of moly from a separate
roasting circuit and enough feed to run a mine for around seven years, before any more
mineralization was proven up. That was back in 2012, but then around 2015 and 2016, the
drop in metals prices had MAI re-thinking the proposal and they came up with a plan that, while
never making it as far as a 43-101 document, considered a 400tpd to 500tpd small scale
operation that focused on the highest grading zones of Los Verdes, roughly 3.9mt with a
combined grade of 1.9% Copper Equivalent (CuEq). There was also talk of using ore sorting on
the mined material (using X-ray scanning) that, in theory at least, could double the CuEq head
grade.
19

At that time in 2016 this small-scale ops plan had a capex estimate of between U$8m and
U$10m. We’d need to bump that up considerably in our current environment, but it does at
least show that MAI could propose another of its “House Specialty” plans, a low-capex project
that can quickly ramp into a free cash flow positive mine.
On reading that intriguing little exchange on CEOca, I pinged President Doug Ramshaw and we
had a brief exchange. He said that CEO Darren Koningen was looking at it again and
remodeling “To a small starter operation, less tones higher grade, much more modest capex”
compared to that of the 2012 PEA, which means they are indeed looking along the lines of the
latter idea as sketched above. However and most interesting of all, President Ramshaw said
that Los Verdes is more likely to be spin-out company than kept inside the current MAI
structure. That makes a lot of sense to this desk, as a “Minera Copper” spinco would add
immediate value ton current MAI shares via the freebies that go to shareholders.
It was a blast from the past to read the company talking about Los Verdes, a project that
hadn’t even crossed my mind since looking at it and passing way back when. However and with
copper now priced the way it is, plus the potential that MAI benefit from the infrastructure now
in place at Santana next door, plus the potential to put the package into a spinco and add value
to the current MAI structure at very little cost (aside those pesky lawyers), it’s another example
of the way this company thinks out of the box as it tries to maximize shareholder value. I like
this idea a lot and it’s not as if I needed another reason to have MAI as my largest position,
either .
QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v): At face value, a frustrating week. However, the fact it didn’t
hold the 30c line is only a transitory annoyance
and what it showed was that new money has to
pay up in order to position. Friday’s selling was
less to do with QCCU and we know it was across
the board, we’re likely to see a return to the
accumulation of Monday to Wednesday once the
broad markets have settled. At the moment, I’m
assuming Friday was “the day” and while there’s
bound to be some residual turbulence tomorrow
Monday, the bloodletting connected to the Fed’s
new macro scenario is now likely baked in.
Mene Inc (MENE.v): Volumes continue to be
thin, but there was some improvement as the
week wore on and with MENE about to file its
quarter next week, the sustained buying at 69c and 70c on Friday gives reason to be cautiously
optimistic. Expect a run-down of its financials next weekend.
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v): That 78c to 80c ceiling price was annoying accurate once again, so when
the market turned (right), there wasn’t much to stop the house Top Pick from tumbling back to
under 70c again. Humph, harrumph and all
that, but the fact remains that until RIO.v
delivers its own market-moving news there
isn’t any reason to expect it to break
higher. As for that, the upcoming milestone
we’re waiting for is the permit award that’s
slated for next month, May’22. On quizzing
CEO Alex Black last week, he said that the
company had done its rounds of
“observaciones” to the permit application
diligently (i.e. the questions that authorities
come back with on reading the document, a
process that can go on for several rounds
20

of back-and-forth) and was now waiting on word from the relevant government authorities.
While surely frustrating to have to wait like this (especially with a red-tape machine such as a
South American public office), there comes a moment when there’s nothing else a company can
do and at least, from the viewpoint of an outsider, it shows the process is largely complete.
Meanwhile the company personnel are busy on the construction of the mine living quarters,
which are reportedly coming along on schedule and budget.
Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) and Western Copper & Gold (WRN.to): I’m lumping these
two stocks into the same update note today, because as copper plays they suffered in the same
way last week. At least my personal open position fared along the lines of the sector average
(COPX proxy) and “only” lost 6.5% on the week, because WRN got absolutely hammered:
WRN has always been a preferred ticker for copper fliptraders and therefore volatile, so WRN
was exposed more than most to the selling that took hold. But that was a heavy hit by any
yardstick and, to within a penny or two, we’re back to where the prices we first identified in
IKN670 as a great entry point. It even touched C$3.00 briefly in early week trading and showed
a 3-handle for the first time since that brief spike in July last year. Before that, you need to go
back to 2011. Those like this desk who are so inclined to think Rio Tinto has this project in its
plans can put it back on their own shopping lists.
As for ARG, the dividend is back to an implied 8.5% at Friday’s closing price. Look no further for
your obvious copper bargain and with its NCIB open and active, I hope the company itself takes
advantage of this price level to buy back as many shares as possible.
Electra Battery Materials (ELBM.v): There was no escape for the increasingly active ELBM
either, though after the first sag it did find buyers
and bargain hunters on Friday.
In other news, the company published two
YouTube videos on Friday afternoon, with one
outlining the CEO Trent Mell (9) and the other a
more interesting overview of company financials
(10) that you may find interesting. CEO Trent Mell
walks through the cash position and how the
company is spending on its long-lead items and
build-out at Battery Park. A very chipper presenter
on show, too.
Newcore Gold (NCAU.v): While all around it faded and wilted, Newcore Gold (NCAU.v) had a
reasonably good week and fought well against the tide:
21

That’s because of this (11), the Wednesday pre-open NR from NCAU with this as a title line:
Newcore Gold Drilling Confirms and Expands
New Discovery, Intersects 1.80 g/t Gold over
27.0 Metres and 1.67 g/t Gold over 17.0
Metres at the Enchi Gold Project, Ghana
Tokosea is a new zone at Enchi with no previous work
until recently, but NCAU has met with immediate
success in its first phase. The NR has plenty of
information that we won’t repeat here, please go over
and read it all if suitably interested with this company
and its prospects, here we’ll go with just two visuals
from the NR to give the flavour. First, this map insert
showing the location of Tokosea compared to the
known resources and other targets at the large Enchi
project.
The discovery of a new zone of mineralization at
Tokosea underscores the company theory of there
being a lot more to come from the target zones at
Enchi and how the deposit closely resembles that of
the Kinross (KGC) (K.to) Chirano mine, around 50km
to the North and on the same mineralization trend.
The second visual today is this section, that shows the
best hit from TORC045 and has the down-hole
breakdown that more precisely shows what they found:
22

With mineralization starting at surface and consistent to 100m depth, this is amenable to the
same type of open pit heap leach mining planned for the other known deposits (Nyam, Boin,
Sewum etc). The mineral interpretation of that section is also crying out for another hole to be
sunk between TORC033 and TORC045, so on asking CEO Luke Alexander on the forward plans
for Tokosea, he confirmed that (quote), “The success we have had with first pass drilling at
Tokosea is definitely going to warrant additional follow-up drilling, including the area you
highlighted.”
All in all, a bright start for NCAU at this new zone that adds confidence to the corporate model
of exploration and development at Enchi, not only at this new discovery zone but for the other
outlined targets slated for exploratory drilling this year. We can look forward to plenty of
newsflow from NCAU’s extensive drill campaign this year as it heads towards a resource update.
The Copper Basket
After sixteen weeks of 2022, The Copper Basket shows a loss of 9.21% level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/22 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Copper Mtn CMMC.to 3.42 210.166 687.24 3.27 -4.4%
2 Western Copper WRN.to 2.00 151.451 368.03 2.43 21.5%
3 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.77 88.028 361.80 4.11 9.0%
4 Oroco Res OCO.v 2.04 203.4 337.64 1.66 -18.6%
5 Nevada Copper NCU.to 0.71 448.437 264.58 0.59 -16.9%
6 Hot Chili HCH.v 1.53 109.223 155.10 1.42 -7.2%
7 Meridian Min MNO.to 1.18 153.735 136.82 0.89 -24.6%
8 Regulus Res. REG.v 1.06 101.845 117.12 1.15 8.5%
9 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.84 114.495 91.60 0.80 -4.8%
10 C3 Metals CCCM.v 0.16 645.379 67.76 0.105 -34.4%
11 Kutcho Copper KC.v 0.88 103.94 56.13 0.54 -38.6%
12 Doré Copper DCMC.v 0.79 66.123 52.24 0.79 0.0%
13 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.58 79.24 45.96 0.58 0.0%
14 QC Copper QCCU.v 0.34 129.06 36.78 0.285 -16.2%
15 Coast Copper COCO.v 0.13 41.335 4.75 0.115 -11.5%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg -9.21%
The Copper Basket dropped by 5.33% on the week to close at its lowest point of 2022 so far,
so it’s fair to say that the copper sub-sector also bore
The Copper Basket 2022, weekly evolution
the brunt of the broad market sell-off. It wasn’t all 4%
bad and there were even three week-over-week 2%
winners (MARI.to, DCMC.v, ECU.v) and two 0%
unchanged stocks (CCCM.v, QCCU.v) in the mix, but -2%
the ten losers were the order of the day and among -4%
-6%
those, the biggest losers were Western (WRN.to
-8%
down 17.9%), Coast Copper (COCO.v down 14.8%),
-10%
Oroco (OCO.v down 12.6%) and Meridian (MNO.to
-12%
down 10.1%).
The copper market was not immune to the
worldwide price drop, as seen in this July¿22 futures contract chart. We’ve now moved over
from the May’22 contract, even though the near-dated contract has a week before expiry
because most volume and open interest has already moved across (see chart below).
23
ts1naJ ht61 ht03 ht31 ht72 ht31 ht72 ht01 ht42
source: IKN calcs

Your curated macro comment of the week is suitably bearish and comes out of Reuters (12):
April 22 (Reuters) - London copper prices edged lower on Friday and were on track for a third
consecutive weekly loss, weighed down by COVID-19 lockdowns in top metals consumer China
and rising inventories, with a stronger U.S. dollar adding to the downbeat mood.
And…
"Weaker expectations of growth amid slowdown and COVID in China is weighing on base
metals," said Vandana Bharti, assistant vice-president of commodity research at SMC Comtrade.
"Also, the dollar index moving higher due to a spike in U.S. yields is adding negative pressure on
commodity prices."
China's financial markets are not immune to external shocks and the COVID situation also put
more pressure on China's economy, governor of the People's Bank of China Yi Gang said on
Friday.
We also got 1q22 quarterly economic data out of copper’s biggest customer (by far), with GDP
up by 4.8% which is a lot lower than the rhythm we’d been used to before Covid came along,
but still beat the analyst forecast average of 4.4%. On the bear side, Chinese industrial
production is showing clear signs of the Covid outbreak in March by registering a 5.0% YoY
improvement compared to the same month of 2021, which compares unfavourably to the
+7.5% registered in January and February. And a final datapoint on China this week comes
from the IMF, which revised down its 2022 growth forecast for the country from 4.8% to 4.4%.
China was hardly the only country to see its GDP forecast marked down by The IMF last week,
but it’s the one that matters for copper and other industrial metals.
As for supply, Peru has Las Bambas blockaded again and the company has stopped production,
though Cuajone has its water back after an army operation to clear local protesters after 50
days. These are joined by Antofagasta (ANTO.l) which reported a 24% drop in production
in1q22 and also Freeport (FCX), which has dropped its guidance for the rest of the year.
Now for our weekly look at copper inventories, data from Cochilco:
 World copper stocks added a total of 9,558 metric tonnes (mt). to its aggregate total of
the three official systems, the final score 280,882mt278,796mt. LME saw inflows, SHFE
outflows and of the two, SGHFE counts the most in the near-term. Notably, even with
the heavy drop in copper prices in USD terms as seen above, the SHFE Yuan futures
contract finished up last week by 0.7%.
 SHFE stocks are falling off a cliff once again, an impressive 18,827mt to close at
69,855mt. The Shanghai lockdown is aggravated an already tight market and we’re on
the way to a real supply crunch in China, according to the hard data. Near-term market
weakness is just that, last week changed no trends.
24

 Conversely, LME stocks rise strongly by 27,100mt last week, with the lion’s share of
that tonnage entering warehouses in South Korea (18,700mt) and Taiwan (6,350mt).
This weekend, the LME total stocks stand at 137,775mt and it seems clear the LME
system is taking in stocks that would have normally arrived in Shanghai. Covid bends
the world out of shape, once again.
 The Comex saw another net inflow, though more modest than last week with 1,285mt
added to stocks which now total 73,252mt. Impressively, there’s more copper in Comex
US warehouses than in SHFE China.
Here’s the dedicated SHFE chart, which has fallen off a cliff once again:
Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2014 to date
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
25
31'13ceD dr32 ht02 ht51 ht01 ht5tco ht03 ht52 dn22 ht71 ht21 ht6pes ts1von 102ht72ced ts12 ht71 ht21 ht7guA dn2tcO ht4ceD ht92 ht62 ts12 ht61 ht01 7102
ht5von
ts13 ht52 dn22 ht42 ht91 ht41 ht9 9102
dr3bef
ts13 ht62 ts12 ht51 ht01 0202ht5naj 0202ts1ram ht62 ts12 ht61 ht11 0202ht6ced ts13 ht82 dr32 ht81 ht21 ht7 2202dn2naj ht72 ht42
Mt Cu
|
source: Cochilco
Here’s the alternative presentation of the data, which shows how out of whack seasonality is:
SHFE copper inventory levels, 2018 to 2022
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 02 12 22 32 42 52 62 72 82 92 03 13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 04 14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84 94 05 15 25
MT Cu 2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
source: Cochilco data
At what point will the world realize that China really is running out of copper and will pay any
price for tonnages? It reminds this desk of that quote from Richard Adkerson of Freeport (FCX)
while at CESCO, as reported in IKN672:
“Even if the price of copper were to double overnight it would still be years
before we had significant incremental production coming on, “The market is
going to need it far faster than companies like ours can produce it.”
Since then FCX has told the market it will produce less than expected in 2022, too. Now for
notes on a couple of our basket stocks:
Oroco Resources (OCO.v): Despite a decent set of drill results on Wednesday (12a) that
continued the current infill campaign and provided numbers that conformed almost exactly to
previous assay results, OCO had a hard time last week. Volume spiked hard on Wednesday as
the BNR was taken as a liquidity event, a day before the unlucky timing of the broad market
sell-off. Once the dust had settled, OCO had dropped a heavy 12.6% to close at $1.66 and as
this 2022 YTD chart shows, the downward trend remained in place. So much for my thoughts of

the stock having room to recover above $2.00
recently, OCO is beginning to move to the
oversold end of the spectrum and while
arguably starting to look cheap, there’s a whole
bunch of other copper explorecos that also fit
that category. It would need to become very
cheap before it attracted my money, that’s just
a fact of the market.
Copper Mountain (CMMC.to): Along with
Western (WRN.to, see note in ‘Stocks to Follow
above), CMMC is one of Canada’s favourite
copper treading chips in its market casino. The
stock is now back at levels which make it almost tempting to buy again, if it weren’t for the fact
that it’s due to report its quarter in two days’ time, April 26th.
The Producer Basket
After sixteen weeks of 2022, the Producer Basket shows a gain of 15.43% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/22 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 62.02 797.44 59.43 74.52 20.2%
2 Barrick GOLD 19.00 1779 42.22 23.73 24.9%
3 Franco-Nevada FNV 138.29 191.192 30.31 158.54 14.6%
4 Agnico Eagle AEM 53.14 454.71 27.10 59.60 12.2%
5 Wheaton PM WPM 42.93 450.3 21.66 48.10 12.0%
6 Gold Fields GFI 10.99 887.72 12.21 13.75 25.1%
7 Kinross Gold KGC 5.81 1296.5 7.12 5.49 -5.5%
8 B2Gold BTG 3.93 1055.6 4.74 4.49 14.2%
9 Alamos Gold AGI 7.69 392.503 3.23 8.24 7.2%
10 Sandstorm SAND 6.20 191.4 1.54 8.02 29.4%
All prices and stock quotes in U$ Port. avg 15.43%
It was carnage, it was across the board, it was led by Newmont (NEM). The anticipated soft
1q22 financials from the world’s biggest traded precious metals company coincided with the
broad market sell-off day and the result was its 12.1% week-over-week drop, but there was no
escape in the other sector names and all ten of our basket components were losers. Seven of
the 10 lost between 8.7% and 12.1%, while “least worst” were the most solid of the bunch, i.e.
Franco (FNV down 5.1%) and Barrick (GOLD down 5.8%). However, even that bloodletting
among our ten fared better than the GDX benchmark, which dropped by 9.6% and allowed us
to make back 1.32% on its lead. We’re still trailing by 2.59%, which is also less worse I
suppose.
The 2022 Producer Basket: Percentage difference
between GDX benchmark & basket (negative = IKN ahead) 6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
26
ts1naJ ht9naJ ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6bef ht31 ht02 ht72 ht6ram ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3rpa ht01 ht71 ht42
The 2022 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
35% comparative to GDX control
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
source: IKN calcs, NYSE data
ts1naJ ht9naJ ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6bef ht31 ht02 ht72 ht6ram ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3rpa ht01 ht71 ht42
ikn
gdx control
source: NYSE, IKN Calcs

Newmont (NEM): Last week’s preview of NEM’s earnings on Friday forecast a soft quarter
and went as far as to suggest the event was actionable:
“…this desk sees NEM as either an outright short going into its earnings week or
perhaps, as an equal and opposite to the call made into its 4q21 earning report, the
short side of a long/short pair trade with GDX or perhaps Barrick”
And without beating round the bush, that worked out:
The most profitable option would have been the simple short, but either pair trade would have
been profitable as well, with preference to the NEM/GOLD pair. As for the earnings, here’s how
Reuters reported the quarter (13):
April 22 (Reuters) - Newmont Corp (NEM.N) on Friday posted a fall in first-quarter
profit, as the world's biggest gold miner was hurt by lower gold sales volumes.
Miners have been dealing with labor disruptions and movement restrictions since the
emergence of the Omicron coronavirus variant.
As for details, in both the literature and Conference Call (transcript here (14)) we did indeed
learn that our fears of higher costs due to mobility issues were well-founded and its big and
important Australian operations. It’s also worth checking that ConfCall script for the Q&A
section, as nearly all the analyst questions were about either costs, or inflation, or both. Clearly,
NEM is going to be used as a benchmark for other Tier 1 and Tier 2 earnings estimates so
expect a few brokerage downgrade on 1q22 earnings for Barrick, Agnico and the rest.
The TinyCaps List
After sixteen weeks of 2022, the TinyCaps show a gain of 0.42% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/22 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Aurelius Min AUL.v 0.24 37.134 13.37 0.36 50.0%
Golden Pursuit GDP.v 0.13 34.638 4.33 0.125 -3.8%
Infield Min INFD.v 0.06 48.276 1.93 0.04 -33.3%
Kingfisher Met KFR.v 0.30 84.57 16.91 0.20 -33.3%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.12 57.296 9.17 0.16 33.3%
Manitou Gold MTU.v 0.06 344.47 17.22 0.05 -8.3%
Melkior Res MKR.v 0.295 24.011 7.20 0.30 1.7%
Precipitate Gold PRG.v 0.105 129.322 13.58 0.105 0.0%
Signature Res SGU.v 0.07 238.4 16.69 0.07 0.0%
Winshear Gold WINS.v 0.08 61.585 5.23 0.085 6.3%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 0.42%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
27

 Market capitalization of under $20m. They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a
little and allowed sub-U$20m market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, but it was a particularly depressing exercise to trawl through the whole of the TSXV and find companies
that are small enough, but with life in them. The vast majority of sub-$20m stocks are broken stocks, either
traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2020. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
A negative week for the basket but it could have
14% TinyCaps, 2022 weekly tracker
been worse, and thanks to four winners (AUL.v,
12%
KFR.v, LMS.v, WINS.v) and a slice of luck, the
10%
overall basket managed to stay in positive
8%
territory. There was also one unchanged stock
(MKR.v), which means five week-over-week 6%
losers (GDP.v, INFD.v, MTU.v, PRG.v, SGU.v). 4%
There were big percentage moves in both 2%
directions, with the biggest wins from Latin 0%
Metals (LMS.v up 23.1%) and Aurelius (AUL.v up -2%
20.0%) and the largest losses from Signature
Resources (SGU.v down 22.2%) and Precipitate
Gold (PRG.v down 19.2%)
Aurelius Minerals Inc. (AUL.v): Some interesting trading in AUL last week, particularly on
Monday and early Tuesday morning, during
which the stock rose by more than 20% on
lumps of volume. No news from the company
either, so with the resource update for Aureus
“expected by early Q2 2022” (to quote its Feb
22nd NR title line), it may be positioning before
that event. It might also be a newsletter reco
from some quarter. Or it might even be both.
We also note that despite seeing the volume
trail off, AUL managed to hold onto nearly all
those early week gains during the Thursday and
Friday selling. These pages will pay close
attention to AUL when the resource update
arrives.
Latin Metals (LMS.v): The biggest upmove of the week but there’s no need to get excited:
That was a Friday tape-paint and a move that’s based on a single trade with less than C$8,000
(pre commish). No volume = No comment.
28
dn2naJ ht9
naJ
ht61naJ dr32 ht03 ht6bef ht31 ht02 ht72 ht6ram ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3rpa ht01 ht71 ht42
source: IKN calcs, TSX data

Precipitate Gold (PRG.v): Following up from last
week’s update on PRG, please note that for the first time
since the 9c and 10c placement closed on December 30th
and just before those shares go free trading next week,
the PRG share price broke under the 11.5c and 12c line it
had successfully held all the way until last Thursday.
There’s room to go lower than this as the escrow shares
go free trading.
This company is an exercise in transferring paper and not
of exploring rocks, you have been duly advised.
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future
I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
Colombia: Petro’s lead extends slightly
As elections to affect the mining sector go, this is the biggest event of the year in LatAm. As
noted in Weeklies passim, with just five weeks between us and the first round of Colombia’s
Presidential election on May 29th, it’s increasingly unlikely that Lefty Gustavo Petro will get the
50%+1 vote required to win outright. Also, Fico Gutiérrez is still close enough to make the
second round run-off a real race and all that is good for our cause, however the poll out from
reliable CNC for Colombia’s serious current affairs magazine and media channel ‘Semana’ on
Friday sees Petro increasing his lead slightly:
This slide from the PDF survey (15) shows the last three CNC polls (no need to translate
“Marzo” or “Abril”, I believe) and, while second-placed Fico and third-placed Rodolfo Hernández
maintain unchanged within the margin of errors (+/- 1.4%), Petro is apparently picking up
some voted from the fading Sergio Fajardo and perhaps also, Íngrid Betancourt (who has
weirdly veered to the right and alienated her traditional green party backers). The only other
detail to point out is noted in red on the table, that this survey took double the number of
opinions than the last two, with 90% of those polled in-situ and 10% by telephone.
As for the likely round two run-off, this is the visual:
29

That’s an eight point lead (or 4 point swing) for the Lefty Petro and while by no means a
certainty, it’s a bigger margin than other recent polls. The findings of the CNC poll seem to
suggest that the strongly negative campaign being used by Fico Gutierrez and his friends
(which includes the President and plenty of friendly media channels), that’s trying to connect
Petro to far left terrorism, the Venezuelan government and other classic Colombian bugbears,
isn’t making the inroads as expected. The poll results PDF (15) has plenty of slides and
information for you political junkies, here’s just one of them from further down the document:
This shows that those who intend to vote for both Rodolfo Hernández and Sergio Fajardo in
round one are mostly going to migrate to Fico Gutiérrez in the run-off, but Petro is apparently
picking up enough of them to make the difference and keep his numbers moving upward.
As for why Petro has maintained his lead despite being subjected to a barrage of negative
attacks from all sides, this analysis also in Semana magazine this weekend (16) goes into some
detail and this translated paragraph has the essence:
Gustavo Petro has led all in all polls for a year. His communication strategy is effective
and his plan of government (manifesto), although it creates controversy in some points,
has managed to the centre of the debate. In fact, the greater part of political
conversations on social media are around his proposals. What’s more, Petro has been
the only candidate to have risked going out into the public arena and it’s common to
see him criss-crossing the country among large gatherings of his supporters. Without
doubt, he is the candidate with the best organized campaign and he doesn’t lack the
support of strong lieutenants who defend him at all times.
And while on the other side of the political spectrum, if that reminds you of the way Trump won
2016 this desk is not surprised. And a few lines further down the same article, this:
The candidate for the Pacto Historico (coalition, Gustavo Petro) has kept ahead of
these difficulties with one explanation; It’s all a supposed trap to affect his campaign.
30

Only time will tell as to whether the Stop The Commie campaign used by Fico’s team will be
enough to halt Petro in the more rarefied atmosphere that’s bound to come between round one
and the run-off. To finish, we repeat the most important message as applies to this readership,
concerned mostly with Colombia from a mining FDI angle: A Petro presidency would be
seriously bad news for the mining sector in Colombia.
Peru: Pressure on the Castillo government
The ministerial cabinet under President Castillo is either on its last legs, or the country is in for a
period of social protests. Criticisms are now coming from all sides but instead of listening, the
President, cabinet and in particular his Prime Minister Anibal Torres have attempted to
entrench, ignore and occasionally fire back by accusing critics of being “enemies of Peru”. That
might hold some water when your targets are the trade associations such as CONFIEP or Peru’s
majority right-leaning press (one of PM Torres’ “enemy of Peru” accusations was used against
the country’s newspaper of record, El Comercio), but when you decide to attack the Catholic
church and all an archbishop “a miserable person” for daring to suggest the government was
moving in the wrong direction, in a country like Peru you’re asking for trouble (and the
clergyman wasn’t even speaking out of turn, instead he had been invited to join a national
conciliation committee). We’ve seen the Congress, political opposition and even ex-ministers of
his own admin such as ex-FinMin Pedro Francke say in public that this cabinet needs to change
and become more conciliatory and cross-party. Francke also said that the next cabinet would be
Castillo’s “last chance”, in the view of this desk that might even be generous.
Pedro Castillo needs to change his ministerial cabinet sooner, rather than later. If he doesn’t,
protests from here will grow and more ominously, there are signs he is losing the support of the
military. At an annual ceremony on Friday, some veterans walked out and others refused to
observe normal protocol and rise from their chairs when the President arrived, which may be
small signals but in the regimented world of Peru’s armed forces, this wouldn’t happen without
wider support from active officers.
The alternative to a change of direction at this point are not pleasant. If Castillo ignores them
all and carries on regardless, we’ll see an increasingly entrenched minority left wing party trying
to run the country and pretend a mandate. That’s dangerous, but if Castillo changes his
ministers but just brings in another bunch of Peru Libre sympathizers and goes even further to
the Left, it will be like a red rag to a bull for the Peruvian establishment. If the President wants
to keep his job until the end of his term, his only true course of action is to move away from
the increasingly powerful and hard left wing Vladimir Cerrón. Time will tell which way he jumps.
Ecuador: Lasso government set to announce referendum items
When President Guillermo Lasso said last month he would no longer try to work with the
country’s obstructionist Congress and govern by a mixture of Presidential decree (for minor
matters) and referendum (for major policy issues), his ministers were given until April 30th to
announce the plans for referendum questions to put before the country. That means the
deadline is up next week so before the next edition, we should expect get the plans that
concern the mining industry.
It wouldn’t be much of a surprise to find they are similar to the original plans for the sector as
announced back in August last year, which are based around a U$16Bn investment project for
then mining and hydrocarbons sector (which tend to get lumped into one in Ecuador), plus tax
holidays for large-scale capex projects and the dropping of import tariffs for the capital goods
required by the industry. A lot will depend on the style, substance and exact wording of the
questions Lasso decides to include in the eventual referendum, the devil will be in the details.
Brazil: Latest presidential election poll
Friday saw the latest poll from a pollster we’ve featured on these pages previously, XP/Ipespe,
has Lula’s first round lead at 9% over Jair Bolsonaro, but most importantly the second round
advantage is 20 points, by 54% to 34% (17).
Long story short, this poll says the same thing as most other recent surveys; Lula and Jair will
31

make the run-off and Lula will trounce the incumbent in the second round. There’s a long time
between now and November, however. Final repeated point, unlike the situation in Colombia
and with exceptions (e.g. the one below), a Lula presidency wouldn’t be particularly bad news
for Brazilian mining’s macro backdrop.
Brazil: Belo Sun’s court date
Tomorrow Monday is setting up to be a key date for Belo Sun (BSX.to), owner of the
controversial Volta Grande project in the jungle zone close to the Belo Monte dam. Tomorrow, a
judge will rule whether the company has properly followed the EIA submission rules and
complied with the OIT169 consultancy correctly. The company says it has, the locals say they
have never been consulted on the project and all they’ve ever got from BSX is a series of
presentations about what they plan to do, with no opportunity for feedback.
If the judge rules against BSX, its permitting track goes back to square one. But if the judge
agrees with the company it will allow them to get the EIA and construction permit (that the
current Jair Bolsonaro government is keen to award).
Chile: The Constitutional Assembly votes down the mining clauses
We’re a long way from the scare stories about Chile “nationalizing its mining industry” now and
the bleating of dilettantes just a few weeks ago has been silenced. We noted a couple of
editions ago that the militant left wing committee had watered down its plans already and
instead of sending a “we nationalize” project to the main chamber of the Constitutional
Assembly, was now trying to get a “we take more control of concessions” clause passed. Last
week even that idea failed to garner the necessary votes (it got 98 and needed 103 of the 154
seats) and the project was sent back to committee for further adaptation. The committee now
has a maximum of two weeks to come up with another idea to put before the main chamber.
Market Watching
Altiplano Metals (APN.to) 1q22 production
On Thursday April 21st Altiplano Metals pre-reported its 1q22 production and sales data from its
small Farellon unit in Chile (18), the operation that provides the company with the cash flow it
then uses to develop its underground mine, add the recent extra production machinery and also
go exploring on its other assets. We’ll get the full financial results for the quarter in May, here
we go with our production tracking charts:
Compared to our estimates of 12,000 tonnes mined and 8,300 tonnes sold/processed, the 1q22
results of 10,075mt and 6,675mt respectively were lighter than expected. As the chart
indicates, 1q22 broke the sequential improvement in production data in 2022 and it doesn’t
matter which way you look at it, this is a miss:
APN: Farellon tonnages mined and sold, 2020 and 2021
32
7555
9844
5709
8296
0669
59701 58611
3119 0779
5508
09001
7407
42611
5367
98111
4527
57001
6766
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1
source: company filings
retrauq/sennot
cirtem
mined tonnes
sold/processed tonnes
As for the money, APN highlighted the record revenues received in the quarter, which came to
U$857,000 at an average selling price of U$3.04/lb (please remember, the company sells

processed ore to a third party).
APN: Avg received U$/lb Cu
period U$ revs Cu Lbs sold Avg/lb
1q20 0.321 188670 1.70
2q20 0.478 310255 1.54
3q20 0.827 460385 1.80
4q20 0.579 322130 1.80
1q21 0.544 277520 1.96
2q21 0.599 220660 2.71
3q21 0.561 221660 2.53
4q21 0.779 267927 2.91
1q22 0.857 281949 3.04
source: APN data, IKN ests
However, it didn’t match our estimates of U$1.175m in revenues and while APN isn’t dependent
on a couple of hundred thousand in either
direction, the production shortfall will stymie its
development plans on other corners. The silver
lining to last week was the price action, as while
the company did sell off, it didn’t drop below the
current and long-term trading range. However,
that also points to the lack of progress APN has
offered for this trade and while I have patience as
well as the desire to sponsor this type of
bootstrap-based company strategy that eventually
adds equity value, there’s precious little to show
for the wait to date.
The jury isn’t out on this trade position yet, but it
will need a second opinion at some point in 2022 if the inertia continues. In the meantime, we’ll
see how 1q22 financials come in and then the scale-up of processing now planned to start in
May, so the 2q22 results are the one to pencil in as a possible inflection point.
McEwen Mining (MUX) and a lack of news
Considering two separate but related issues at MUX:
 MUX always pre-announces its quarterly production numbers and up to this month, the
latest date for the regular NR is the 19th of the month after quarter close. It’s normally
in the period 9th to 13th and has been as early as the 6th. Today is April 24th and we still
haven’t had the NR, all we got was the April 5th NR that announced the financing under
duress that mentioned that only Gold Bar performed to guidance.
 Despite MUX promising news by end March on the closure of the McEwen Copper
U$80m (or $60m?) financing, as per the 4q21 conference call, all we’ve had so far is a
passing mention in the April 5th NR that noted the separation of the Los Azules asset
from loan securities would help this specific financing happen. So April 24th and still
have no news on McEwen Copper
financing progress.
Put those two together and the Friday dump in
MUX may have fundamental reason behind it,
rather than mere sector sympathy.
33

Addendum to last week’s “Silver is ready to move higher”
Last weekend’s main fundies note, “Silver is ready to move higher” today gets some minor
updates to the data. Between then and now, The Silver Institute published its “2022 World
Silver Survey” report including updated data on supply and demand for the metal and as such,
we update and present the necessary charts. Two things:
 Some of the new data underscores and improves our bull thesis
 Once examined, some of the new data suggests The Silver Institute is deliberately
underplaying world silver demand.
I’d like to stress that the updated numbers from The Silver Institute are only a minor positive
toward our bullish case and, at best, a mild boost to our general thesis that silver is in line for a
sharp price increase. You’ll see the minor advantage of the former quickly and are likely to
agree. However, that latter statement threatens to launch your normally sane*, balanced and
fundaments-grounded author down the silverbug conspiracy theory rabbit hole, so if I start
sounding unhinged*, please cut your author some slack.}
Under examination is the updated supply and demand data for the world silver market. The
Silver Institute has updated its figures and as usual, there are adjustments and revisions on
both forecasts for 2022 and the amounts of silver made, bought, sold and used by the various
sectors involved. So far so normal and there’s nothing out of the ordinary to see datasets that
tend to be constant moving targets get revisions later down the line (e.g. macro
unemployment, inflation or GDP figures as other typical examples).
This first chart updates world mine supply data. On this, you see the numbers published by The
Silver Institute in its 2021 World Silver Survey and in the red bars, the new and revised
numbers in the 2022 World Silver Survey. Please be clear that 1) this does not include recycling
data and 2) the cut-down Y-axis is there to help you spot the differences, not to fool you:
The Silver Institute revises silver mine supply data
34
3.548 1.288 9.698 009 7.368 2.058 9.538
4.487
1.187
5.848
6.228
5.978
2.348
950
900
850
800
750
700
650
600
550
500
3102 4102 5102 6102 7102 8102 9102 0202 1202 e2202
Moz Ag
2021 survey
2022 survey
source: TSI 2021 and 2022 report
There were some minor changes to previous years including 2022, but the real differences
happen in the years you’d imagine: 2021 supply drops by 25.9Moz to 822.6Moz, then the new
Silver Institute supply forecast for this year 2022 drops by 36.3Moz to 843.2Moz. That’s less
silver coming to market and by the basic rules, bullish for prices.
Now here are the same revisions to the overall demand data:
The Silver Institute revises silver demand data
4.9201 1.2101 3.2501
2.799
4.769
669
2.549
8.998
1.869
4.599
089
1.698
9.978
1.3301
7.9301
2111
7.1011
1200
1150
1100
1050
1000
950
900
850
800
750
700
3102 4102 5102 6102 7102 8102 9102 0202 1202 e2202
Moz Ag
2021 survey
2022 survey
source: TSI 2021 and 2022 report

This time we see distinct changes to the data right back to 2013, but the last two years have
hardly budged and the 2022 forecast demand for the metal across all categories is 1.107Bn oz
silver. So once the recycle supply and net long/short hedge positions are factored in, we have a
new overall surplus/deficit reading. First here the chart from last week:
And here’s the new and updated balance chart:
Silver: Supply surplus or deficit
(positive = surplus, negative = deficit)
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
35
3102 4102 5102 6102 7102 8102 9102 0202 1202 e2202
M oz Ag
source: Silver Institute, GFMS, IKN ests, IKN calcs
As you can see to the right of the chart, the silver market is now called to have been in a 42.5m
oz deficit in 2021, instead of the minor surplus as assumed in the 2021 report. Also, the deficit
forecast for 2022 has grown from 20m oz Ag to 71.4m oz Ag, a significant change and while it’s
probably not enough to dent the futures market all by itself, shows The Silver Institute has
been underestimating the bullish imbalance. All in all, mildly and reasonably bullish news.
That’s the good and wholesome data wrapped up and presented, I now put on my tinfoil hat
and present some underlying numbers that suggest The Silver Institute may be deliberately
underplaying silver demand in 2022 and specifically, in the investment sphere for the metal.
Please refer back to IKN674 last weekend where we showed data from 1) coin and bar mints 2)
The Commitment of Traders Index and 3) The main silver bullion ETF (SLV) new inflows that
suggest that demand for investment in silver grew in 1q22, both against the same quarter of
2021 and the previous 4q21. However, when we check out the new forecasts used by The
Silver Institute in its 2022 report, they give us this comparison:
The Silver Institute revision of Ag investment demand
They assume overall silver investment demand will grow by just 0.5m oz in 2022, compared to
2021. That’s weird, and even stranger when we see the aggregate demand chart with its
updated figures:
9.103 6.003 6.482 1.382 6.213 4.013 6.312 212 2.651 7.551 6.561 2.561 7.581 8.681 5.002 502 8.252 7.872 062 2.972
Moz Ag
350
300 2021
2022
250
200
150 100
50
0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022e
source: TSI 2021 and 2022 report

M oz Ag Silver: Demand breakdown Total Industrial
Coins&Bars
1200
Jewelry/Silverware
1000
800 495.4 482.5 482.3 536.9 568
543.4 513.1 534.7 533.4 530.8
492.7
600
400 241.9 300.6 283.1 310.4 212 155.7 165.2 186.8 278.7 279.2
205
200
199.7 233.4 246.5 259.6 242.3 254.8 269.5 262.4 182.2 224.1 254.5
0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022e
Source: The Silver Institute, IKN ests and calcs
While The Silver Institute sees growth in both industrial demand (semiconductors and
photovoltaics to the fore) and jewellery and silverware (India demand growth), investment
coins and bars are predicted flat. Even worse is the investment breakdown:
Moz Ag
Coin & Bar demand breakdown
325
300
275 bars
250 coins
225 124.6 123.5
200
175
72
150 88.2
125
100
75 154 155.7
128.5
50 97.9
25
0
2019 2020 2021 2022e
source: TSI
This makes no sense at all, as ETF inflows alone will make bar demand move higher and as we
saw from our Perth Mint data, as well as the eye-watering premiums the market is willing to
pay for 1oz US Silver Eagles, demand for physical coins is currently red hot.
This desk would like to suggest that in order to keep its overall demand forecast to 1.107Bn oz
Ag and not start speculative talk on a fast increase in the projected deficit of silver ounces in
2022, The Silver Institute has deliberately downplayed one of the three main categories of
silver demand. It’s tougher to fudge industrial demand as those ounces are normally budgeted
and pre-ordered, but investment demand is more of black box until after the fact. And the fate
of silver market prices normally hinges on the investment variable, there’s reason to believe The
Silver Institute is trying to send a signal that demand isn’t as strong as reality, perhaps to keep
silver prices from moving up on a speculative rally. And that’s as tinfoil hat as I’m getting, it’s
now up to you to make up your mind about how deep this particular rabbit hole might go.
*Rumours about the mad and crazy Otto? Haters gotta hate .
Conclusion
IKN675 is done, we end with bullet points:
 These reports are getting really long and I don’t quite understand why. Maybe I’m
finally typing faster without realizing it.
 Of the three new trades, the addition to Superior Gold (SGI.v) is planned as the largest.
Consider Abrasilver as the leverage trade that sits next to Discovery Silver (DSV.v),
36

while the addition to Chesapeake Gold (CKG.v) turns a tiny position into a small
position, no more no less
 With metals in this temporary sag, now is the time to be a buyer. Friday’s drop may see
fallout in the next day or two, so no rush to buy at the bell and look for bargains.
 A salute to all New Zealanders and Australians on ANZAC Day. Lest we forget.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stocks are Minera Alamos (MAI.v) and
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v). Flash updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best wishes, Mark
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://iknnews.com/making-three-purchases-next-week/
(2) https://www.goldforum.live/DGG/AbraSilver-Resource-Corp?bmid=bd624cd2036f&source_from=invitation
(3) https://www.abrasilver.com/_resources/presentations/corporate-presentation.pdf?v=0.776
(3a) https://www.abrasilver.com/news-releases/abrasilver-reports-best-intercept-to-date-from-current-drill-program-at-
diablillos-140-metres-grading-301-gt-ageq-43-gt-aueq
(4) https://superior-gold.com/news/superior-gold-announces-q1-2022-production-results-122635/
(5) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JWo7XsHJpwM
(6) https://superior-gold.com/news/superior-gold-reports-significant-intercepts-as-it-122636/
(7) https://register.gotowebinar.com/register/7802780344424102416
(8) https://ceo.ca/mai
(9) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pUGRGBgZXTA
(10) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U5MJ4BKXkic
(11) https://mailchi.mp/newcoregold.com/newcore-gold-newsrelease-drillresults-tokosea-april2022?e=e0640b2045
(12) https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/metals-lme-copper-set-for-third-weekly-fall-on-higher-inventories-chinas-covid-
woes
(12a) https://www.orocoresourcecorp.com/news/oroco-continues-its-drilling-success
(13) https://www.reuters.com/business/gold-miner-newmont-posts-fall-first-quarter-profit-2022-04-22/
(14) https://seekingalpha.com/article/4503066-newmonts-nem-ceo-tom-palmer-on-q1-2022-results-earnings-call-
transcript
(15) https://es.scribd.com/document/571045058/Semana-Candidatos-Presidenciales-21-04-2022-
1#download&from_embed
(16) https://www.semana.com/nacion/articulo/la-recta-final-por-que-petro-va-ganando-la-carrera-por-la-presidencia-y-
que-pasa-con-fico/202249/
(17) https://www.brasil247.com/brasil/lula-vence-bolsonaro-no-segundo-turno-com-20-de-vantagem-diz-xp-ipespe
(18) https://apnmetals.com/news/altiplano-reports-on-q1-2022-results-at-farellon-with-record-revenue/
(19) https://www.silverinstitute.org/global-silver-demand-surged-2021/
37

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Set-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Abr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
38

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Ago-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Set-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Ene-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Set-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Ene-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Set-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Ago-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Abr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Set-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Abr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Set-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-ago-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-ene-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-abr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-abr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-ene-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-ene-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-abr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-abr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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