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The IKN Weekly
Week 674, April 17th 2022
Contents
This Week: In Today’s Edition, The main message on gold.
Fundamental Analysis: Silver is ready to move higher.
Stocks to Follow: McEwen Mining (MUX), Chesapeake Gold (CKG.v), Superior Gold (SGI.v),
Minera Alamos (MAI.v), QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v), Mene (MENE.v), Discovery Silver (DSV.v),
Electra Bettery (ELBM.v).
Copper Basket: Overview, Oroco Resources (OCO.v), Hot Chili (HCH.v), Copper Mountain
(CMMC.to).
Producer Basket: Overview, B2Gold (BTG), Barrick (GOLD), Newmont (NEM).
TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Precipitate Gold (PRG.v).
Regional Politics: Ecuador: Lasso’s strategy begins to form, Argentina: Josemaria’s EIA
permit makes the country look good.
Market Watching: Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) 1q22 production.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
In Today’s Edition
 We clear the decks and talk silver, the main fundies section dedicated to the silver
market, its price action and growing indications that the metal is about to break higher.
 Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) delivered a boringly good quarter of production in 1q22,
read all about in ‘Market Watching’.
 The Producer Basket outlines the reason why Long GDX/Short Newmont may be a pair
trade in the near-term.
 The intro considers gold’s strength in our uncertain and fearful world.
 Today’s Regional Politics section is shorter than the last couple of weeks, but contains
an upbeat view of the improving lot for miners in Argentina. As long as you’re in one of
the friendly provinces, there’s little to complain about and cheap prices on offer,
Superminister Kulfas has your back.
The main message on gold
“If you can look into the seeds of time,
And say which grain will grow and which will not,
Speak then to me, who neither beg nor fear
Your favours nor your hate.”
Macbeth, Act 1, Sc3
Last weekend’s edition of The IKN Weekly was the first time in a long time that Ukraine and the
geopolitical fallout of the Russian invasion didn’t feature heavily in the intro section. Reasons
include the type of crisis fatigue alluded to a couple of editions ago, as the way Ukraine is being
1

baked into the fabric of capital markets is simply a reflection of generalized human nature. We
vertical apes with large crania are good at adaptation, after a while we can accept horrors as
part of a new normal backdrop.
Another reason to avoid the subject is the high likelihood of being wrong. The fluid and
uncertain nature of today’s geopolitical backdrop as the fog of war swirls means that nobody,
really knows what is about to go down or in what order. For example, but even a week ago not
many of us would have made many forecasts on Russian battleships being sunk, NATO-sourced
weapons supply planes shot down before their cargo reached Ukraine’s army, or remnant
pockets of heroically brave soldiers making a final stand in the grounds of a steelworks in
Mariupol. Your author is no different and doesn’t get to write confidently from a desk in South
America, pretend he understands what’s going on and subsequently make a list of accurate
predictions on what’s going to happen. Even under normal circumstances, anyone with an
opinion about the future can, and will, be made to look dumb at any given moment. These are
not normal circumstances and so one sticks one’s neck out at one’s own peril.
However, in the case of the Ukraine situation and gold bullion, there’s another type of fatigue
that kicks in; that of repetition. Yes, I don’t want to bore you the reader with yet Ukraine Intro
for a publication that’s supposed to be about (mostly) junior mining companies in (mostly) Latin
America*. Also yes, I don’t want to repeat the same theme as for one, repetitive themes get
tiresome at this end of the conversation as well. And for another, every op-ed military
aggression in Eastern Europe puts distance between me and my own wheelhouse; if there’s one
thing I’ve learned about this crazy weekend pastime of mine over the years, it’s to stick to one’s
knitting…or else. So this weekend, instead of saying the same thing in a different way and
trying to elaborate or even pass myself off as a world expert on Ukraine, I’m going to say a few
of the same things in the same way. This is from the intro piece “Ugly truths about wars and
markets” in IKN669, dated March 13th:
Ugly truths about wars and markets
This week’s intro once again focuses on the effects of our new world backdrop on the
price of gold bullion. We argue the following:
 The war in Ukraine underpins the new price deck for all metals and
commodities, gold is no exception
 Now firmly installed as a Fear Trade, what’s bad for broad markets will be
good for gold (and vice-versa)
 The financial consequences of the new geopolitics are set to push gold higher
Next up, this was the final paragraph of the intro section in IKN670, dated March 20th, a week
after the above:
“The bottom line is to be clear about the reasons to own gold in 2022: Russia is not
going to stop its attack, Putin is not about to be replaced, things are going to get
worse before they get better and at some point, either physically or politically, even
the best case scenario will see Kyiv fall to Russia (and today, let’s not do any of the
worst cases). This is the world in which The Fed thinks it can raise rates at will without
causing an economic slowdown, so help us all. Own bullion, ladies and gents, because
like it or not gold is going higher.”
And here’s a segment From IKN671’s intro, dated March 27th:
“…the main message still works: This time really is different, the way the world works
financially has changed and whatever the outcome of Ukraine vs Russia, we don’t get
the luxury of going back to the way things were on February 23rd. We’re going to get
Jay Powell trying to cajole The USA into higher rates and inviting stagflation to ruin the
party, we’re going to get economic uncertainty in all types of issues and as they are
Fear Trade factors, they will be good for gold bullion prices in US Dollars.”
Those three excerpts illustrate today’s title line. The fog of means missed details, altered
strategies and a difficulty in sorting truth from fiction, reality from exaggeration. For example,
the mail pushback I got from you the readership when writing “…at some point, either
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physically or politically, even the best case scenario will see Kyiv fall to Russia” a month ago.
Since then we’ve seen Russia pivot its plans and back off from a full-scale attack on the capital
but, by the same token the retreat wasn’t the beginning of the end of conflict, the more
optimistic assumed. Rather, the last few days have witnessed Russian resolution to gear up for
a longer-term campaign targeted on the East of the country. Maybe, some time after, Kyiv will
indeed fall. My point isn’t about getting the whole thing right, neither is it to offer running
commentary on the horrendous current events or the human rights abuses, you can get all that
from the media source of choice. The main message of the war in Ukraine will depend on
context, but here at The IKN Weekly we have a basic message that is bearing out, so far at
least with seven weeks of conflict behind us:
 Russia’s aggression on Ukraine has profoundly changed the geopolitical world regimen.
Unlike so many other occasions, this time really is different.
 The peace dividend has disappeared before our eyes, with that change comes a wide
range of economic threats to the world. It also means policy tools used until recently
won’t work any longer, as Jay Powell and The Fed are finding out in real time.
 The Fear Trade is now prevalent. Be it good or bad that’s bullish for gold bullion and, as
a direct knock-on effect, positive for other metals prices and the share prices of mining
companies.
I don’t mind being wrong about details as long as the main calls are right and, so far at least,
they are holding up here. We see the fruits of these basic messages in a price of gold that’s
now higher than it was on March 7th, two weeks after Russia invaded and around the time the
world realized Ukraine, its people, military and President are no pushovers:
We see that in the accumulation of bullion in GLD vaults, at its highest levels since the end of
February 2021 and one week into Biden’s administration:
GLD gold holdings, 2021 to date (metric tonnes)
1220
1200
1180
1160
1140
1120
1100
1080
1060
1040
1020
1000
980
960
940
3
12/1/4 12/1/41 12/1/42 12/2/3 12/2/31 12/2/32 12/3/5 12/3/51 12/3/52 12/4/4 12/4/41 12/4/42 12/5/4 12/5/41 12/5/42 12/6/3 12/6/31 12/6/32 12/7/3 12/7/31 12/7/32 12/8/2 12/8/21 12/8/22 12/9/1 12/9/11 12/9/12 12/01/1 12/01/11 12/01/12 12/01/13 12/11/01 12/11/02 12/11/03 12/21/01 12/21/02 12/21/03 22/1/9 22/1/91 22/1/92 22/2/8 22/2/81 22/2/82 22/3/01 22/3/02 22/3/03 22/4/9
mt
source: SPDR GLD data

However, we don’t yet see it in overbuying of bullion compared to the US Dollar:
GLD: Inventory/Price Ratio, 2021 to date
7.00
6.80
6.60
6.40
6.20
6.00
5.80
5.60
5.40
5.20
5.00
4
4/1/1202 41/1/1202 42/1/1202 3/2/1202 31/2/1202 32/2/1202 5/3/1202 51/3/1202 52/3/1202 4/4/1202 41/4/1202 42/4/1202 4/5/1202 41/5/1202 42/5/1202 3/6/1202 31/6/1202 32/6/1202 3/7/1202 31/7/1202 32/7/1202 2/8/1202 21/8/1202 22/8/1202 1/9/1202 11/9/1202 12/9/1202 1/01/1202 11/01/1202 12/01/1202 13/01/1202 01/11/1202 02/11/1202 03/11/1202 01/21/1202 02/21/1202 03/21/1202 9/1/2202 91/1/2202 92/1/2202 8/2/2202 81/2/2202 82/2/2202 01/3/2202 02/3/2202 03/3/2202 9/4/2202
Source: SPDR data, IKN calcs
That’s the next stage, so make sure you have your gold game in order before it happens. And
with the noblest of all metals duly covered, we turn our attention to its ugly kid cousin.
*Or The Americas at a stretch. And yes, Newcore is in Africa. And yes, Superior Gold is in Australia. Hypocrite, thy
name is author.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Silver is ready to move higher
Last weekend’s intro revisited the contentious and often misunderstood subject of silver price
action and alluded to my growing bullish sentiment for the price of silver. This weekend we go
deeper via a look at the fundamentals of the silver market, something we’ve done on an
irregular basis for over 300 editions of The IKN Weekly. The occasional series on silver’s
fundamental drivers began back in IKN369 dated June 5th 2016, a long treatise that’s held up
well over the years, even if I say so myself. Not much has changed since then and, on giving
IKN369 a quick revisit this weekend, along with the four-cornered argument we featured charts
that recorded a gold/silver ratio bouncing around 80/1, the same level we have today. In the
years since, the silver sector has been treated to lavish helpings of Hopium from the legion of
permabulls that inhabit this particular and peculiar sector, as well as the rise and fall of gurus
and acolytes or anyone foolish enough to believe constant predictions of Jam Tomorrow. The
internet is full of false prophets, soothsayers and conspiracy theorists who for some reason
have a special attraction for silver and its market. No end of essays, YouTube videos, Tweets
and what-have-you get published about silver’s Rigged Market and how, in a bright day for all
humanity. the dishonesty of The Powers That Be will give way to a new price paradigm, often
coming with three figure dollar price predictions for the metal.
The IKN Weekly has never bought into the nonsense. However and it must be said, silver also
has occasionally run significant price moves over the last five or six years, enough to move the
underlying stocks and provide strong trading and investment gains for speculators with the
stomach to handle the innate volatility of the silver sub-sector. Therefore we can state:
 Silver’s conspiracy theorists, soothsayers, “silver squeezers” and social media
permabull gurus have been dead wrong over an extended period of time.
These people should not be taken seriously.
 Silver has periods in which the price moves sharply and offers strong trading
gains. There’s money to be made, so take that seriously.
One should not be confused with the other, so without lapsing into hyperbole the reasonable
metals market observer should be on the lookout for moments in which silver looks ready to
move, due to its (in)famous potential for out-sized gains in a reasonably brief period of time.

I believe we’re close to one of those moments, the rest of today’s main fundies analysis piece
tries to explain why.
We begin with data, with our source the go-to beancounter people at The Silver Institute (1).
As mentioned on previous occasions, there’s a big difference between the way silver’s price gets
massaged and moved around at key moments, for example at options expiries and futures roll-
overs (there’s a main rollover happening now, in fact) and the all-encompassing accusations
made by ill-informed conspiracy theorists that the silver market is permanently rigged. So yes,
in the same way that big players use their financial leverage to bend financial markets to their
own favour, silver also gets moved by large houses using weight of money on occasion. As
silver is a small(ish) market it is perhaps
easier and arguably more blatant, also
you may not like it, but there’s nothing
uncommon going on. However, once you
strip away the speculation, accusations
and talk of cabals, silver will also
eventually rise and fall from the same,
basic Adam Smith reasons of supply and
demand as anything else. That’s where
we begin, starting with a chart on total
annual supply since 2008, plus The Silver
Institute’s 2022 forecast (right).
That estimate on the right of the chart of
1.092 billion ounces supply to market this year breaks down in the following way:
Silver: Market supply
M oz Ag Silver: Demand breakdown Total Industrial
Coins&Bars
1200
Jewelry/Silverware
1000
800 543.4 535.9 493.6 498.2 541.3 554.9 464.6 547.3 514.4 552.8 596
600
400 241.9 301.9 284.6 312.6 213.6 156.2 165.6 185.7 252.8 260
200.5
200
199.7 233.4 246.4 259.5 242.3 254.9 269.6 262.4 181.2 227.5 256
5
0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022e
Source: The Silver Institute, IKN ests and calcs
7.486 3.717 357 3.857 9.597 3.548 9.188 4.698 4.998 9.268 4.848 2.338 4.487 5.848 5.978
1200
1100
1000
900
800
700
600
500 400
300
200
100
0
8002 9002 0102 1102 2102 3102 4102 5102 6102 7102 8102 9102 0202 1202 e2202
Silver: Annual total supply
(NB: Cut down Y-axis)
1200
1150
1092
1 1 0 1 5 0 0 0 1074.8 1043.8 1015.5 1039.8 1068.71066.21065 1031.7 1017.31018.7 1056.3
976.2
1000
950 907.2 916.1
900
850
800
M oz Ag Total Other
Mine Production
source: Silver Institute, GFMS, IKN ests, IKN calcs
Mine production was an estimated 848.5m oz last year (subject to revision) and is forecast at
879.5m oz this year. Meanwhile the vast majority of “Total Other” is scrap recycling that came
to 207.8m oz in 2021 (to be confirmed) and is forecast at 212.5m oz for this year.
Moving to the other side of the equation and to quote The Silver Institute in its February 9th
press release (8), “The outlook for silver demand is exceptionally promising for 2022, with
global silver demand forecast to rise to a record high of 1.112 billion ounces (Boz) in 2022.”
This chart breaks down annual demand since 2012 and provides the IKN estimated forecast
breakdown for this year:
8002 9002 0102 1102 2102 3102 4102 5102 6102 7102 8102 9102 0202 1202 e2202
M oz Ag
source: Silver Institute, GFMS, IKN ests, IKN calcs

As usual, industry makes up over half the market for silver and for 2022, The Silver Institute
pegs that at 596m oz Ag. Jewellery and silverware cover 256m oz, then the final category of
“coins and bars” is the investment and speculation purchases of silver, also expected to rise. So
to round off this first segment, we can do simple math and get this chart:
Silver: Supply surplus or deficit
(positive = surplus, negative = deficit)
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
6
0102 1102 2102 3102 4102 5102 6102 7102 8102 9102 0202 1202 e2202
M oz Ag
source: Silver Institute, GFMS, IKN ests, IKN calcs
Though the 20m oz total is relatively modest, The Silver Institute forecasts silver in 2022 will be
in supply deficit for the first time since 2015, and the first meaningful deficit since 2013. That’s
good news for silver bulls of course, but 20m oz compared to a total market over 50 times that
size isn’t the type of leverage one requires for massive price changes. However, once we get
into the weeds of the data there’s more reason to be cheerful about the price prospects of
silver. We begin with this a breakdown of recent demand by sector:
Percentage breakdown of total demand
Jewelry/Silverware Coins&Bars
other industrial Photovoltaic
% of total
Photography net hedge demand
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021f
source: Silver Institute, GFMS, IKN ests, IKN calcs
Firstly, we can generally discount net hedge demand, puny compared to other market forces
(e.g. the futures market) and photography, vastly changed since digital took over and no longer
a major influence. More interesting is how photovoltaic has failed to make a move higher in the
last few years, despite the rise and rise of solar panels and other EV related silver applications,
due to industry finding ways of using less silver to perform the same task. Meanwhile and most
importantly, “other industrial” still dominates total demand with just over 40% of the market
last year. That’s important, because anyone who decides to speculate on the price of silver
going higher must be clear about the competition and how industry will be pulling against them.
The industrial world does not want higher input prices, it’s in its best interest to keep a lid on
prices and pay as little as possible for its silver. This is one of the major differences between
the gold and silver market and a factor that many greenhorn speculators fail to recognize, so
look no further for your source of “futures manipulation”; it’s a large swathe of end users you’re
up against on options expiry dates, not the greedy banksters (well, perhaps a little).
However and more interestingly, demand growth comes from those who oppose lower prices.
Arguably jewellery and silverware are price-agnostic, meanwhile the main growth sector for the
past five years is coin and bar, i.e. those who take physical delivery and, by implication, want
silver prices higher. In other words you and me the speculator, so it stands to reason that the
greater our percentage of the market becomes, the more market heft it has. This next chart

separates out those segments, those that buy silver because it’s shiny, pretty and worth money
in itself. We also include estimates based on The Silver Institute forecasts for 2022:
Silver: "Shiny Things" demand
Silver supply by mine type
100%
90% by-product
80% Primary
70%
67% 68% 69% 67% 67% 68% 69% 71% 72% 73%
60%
50%
40%
30%
1 2 0 0 % % 33% 32% 32% 33% 33% 32% 31% 29% 29% 27%
0%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
source: Silver Institute
7
9.142
7.991
9.103
4.332
6.482
4.642
6.213
5.952
6.312
3.242
2.651
9.452
6.561
6.962
7.581
4.262
5.002
2.181
8.252
5.722
062
652
600
550
500
450
400 350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2102 3102 4102 5102 6102 7102 8102 9102 0202 f1202 e2202
M oz Ag
Coins&Bars
Jewelry
source: Silver institute, GFMS, IKN ests, IKN calcs
The “shiny things” demand is set to beat half a billion ounces for the first time since 2015 and
at this point we offer our first suggestion of a subject we expand upon below; this desk believes
The Silver Institute’s forecasts underestimate demand this year.
More on that in a moment, first we tie off another factor buried in the depths of the
fundamental data of the silver market that suggests silver prices have more upside than the
modest 2022 deficit suggest. For that, we return to supply and this chart, which breaks down
the sources of mined silver:
Silver output by source metal
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
4002 5002 6002 7002 8002 9002 0102 1102 2102 3102 4102 5102 6102 7102 8102 9102 0202
Primary Gold Lead/Zinc Copper Other
source: Silver Institute
This dataset only goes to 2020 but even so, we see that silver from primary silver mines makes
up only a small percentage of total supply. Taking the last recorded year as our example, more
silver came as a by-product of lead/zinc mines (31.7%) than mines dedicated to silver
production as headline metal (26.7%). Then comes the silver produced as by-product of copper
mines (25.3%), with silver from gold mines (15.7%) behind those.
These two charts break that same data down in other ways:
Silver supply by mine type Precious Base
100%
90%
80%
70% 51% 52% 53% 51% 51% 53% 54% 55% 56% 58%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20% 49% 48% 48% 49% 50% 47% 46% 45% 44% 42% 10%
0%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
source: Silver Institute

Ten years ago, silver produced as a by-product covered 67% of total mined supply, that’s now
up to 73%. Also, even if we lump the gold and silver mines together base metals operations still
produce the lion’s share of silver. Whichever way you slice it, the fate of silver supply is
decreasingly in the hands of the silver market, this is a metal and a sector that depends on
non-silver mining operations for most of its supply. Its fate is in the hands of others and the
primary percentage drop indicates the silver sector has difficulty in increasing supply in the near
term when demand rises.
This inelastic supply dynamic of silver and the way it has increasing difficulty in responding to
market demands brings us to our next point, one of those coincidences that are probably not
coincidences, or if you prefer a dose of serendipity. It so happened that after last weekend’s
“I’m beginning to be bullish” thoughts on silver, I found my thoughts returning to the subject
and the potential for silver’s upside all last week. It’s clear inflation is an issue affecting metals,
we have a demand upside either happening or being baked in demand but aside seat-of-pants
feelings, but up to last Wednesday it was difficult for your author to nail down the fundamental
reasons as to why silver has managed to mop up inflationary pressures and stay where it is:
Even compared to the monetary metal, silver has under-performed and, as over 50% of silver’s
demand comes from industry, it should be doing a much better job of tracking the base metals,
with copper our example in the above chart.
It was while updating the house Excel on the Silver Institute database (seen above) on
Wednesday evening than the coincidence kicked in: To amuse ears while doing the datacrunch
and numerical drudge work, I dialled up a podcast. It was the latest edition of Goodfellows (2),
the Hoover Institute series that typically features its three protagonists John Cochrane, H.R.
McMaster and Niall Ferguson (pro-tip: the best podcasts are when the people speaking aren’t
just smarter than you, but way way WAY smarter than you). This week’s episode had invited
Larry Summers (of GFC fame) on the show and in the first couple of minutes, Niall Ferguson
quizzed Larry Summers on “…how you arrived at your view that we were going to have an
inflation problem way back in February of last year when almost nobody else, certainly very few
economists, and none whatever at the Federal Reserve, saw that coming.” Ferguson went on a
little further to frame his question in a historical context and if you want the whole thing, click
through and watch from minute four (no need to watch the whole hour-plus). As I crunched
silver numbers into Excel, Larry Summers began his answer:
“I would say my secret sauce was I did arithmetic…. how much room is left in
the bathtub, how much water is being put in the bathtub, is the bathtub going
to overflow. When I did that arithmetic with respect to inflation, I saw that we
were going to be ramping up the growth rate of total spending into the double
digits and the capacity of the economy wasn’t going to be growing at anything
like that and therefore that inflation was almost inevitable.”
A bell went off in my head: “Wow, supply-side economics explains silver!” In our wonderful
modern world of Keynes and MMT it took a dinosaur like Summers to go back, look at 2020 and
8

2021 macro data from a different angle and see how supply-side restrictions cause the
pervasive inflation we have to today, the issue that blind-sided the Fed and its prediction of a
transitory inflationary effect. A blast from the past and, while he wasn’t talking or even referring
to anything from the commodities or metals world, he may as well have been talking about
silver. Summers’ words not only explain why inflation became pervasive, but also point to the
essence of the silver bullion market and the way monetary theory has kept the lid on the price
of silver…so far at least. Summers now had my full attention as he continued:
“I asked myself, “What moments in the past look like this?” and I saw the
same thing and I asked myself, “What do different approaches suggest?”, I
have a set of so-called Keynesian approaches to thinking about
macroeconomics, Shaun has different approaches that are more in a
Monetarist tradition, but I kinda thought about all the different approaches and
they all seemed to me to be flashing red and that led me to be fairly confident.
I also tried in all my forecasts to recognize that the world is extremely
probabilistic, so what I said was that there was a two-thirds chance we were
going to have a real problem; that it might be inflation, it might be a hard
landing stopping inflation and I might have turned out to be wrong, but as the
year went on I got increasingly confident that I had been right.
“I think part of the problem of other people was they thought in terms of a
single forecast, part of what was wrong was people were prisoners of recent
history. Economists do time series statistics of the last 40 years of data; if for
40 years inflation has been stable then whatever statistical procedure you use
on stable inflation, you’re going to assume that nothing changes inflation very
much because nothing ever did change inflation very much! So I think that
the secret or a secret for being right is maintaining a certain eclecticism of
perspective which helps you avoid overconfidence, helps you avoid being
excessively a prisoner of the recent past and leaves you open to a wide range
of possibilities. I also think that it’s extraordinarily important to avoid motivated
belief and to try to form judgements about what is, rather than what you prefer
to be. And I think that many in the political process preferred to believe that
spending they had long favoured was easily affordable. I think many in the
Fed preferred to believe that the policy paradigm they had laid down at an
earlier moment would continue to have applicability, and I frankly think many
in the financial community prefer to be in general alignment with the Fed, than
to be in a different place. It’s trivializing the issue to say people want
invitations to the annual Jackson Hole conference, but it captures an aspect of
the psychology. And by the way, I don’t want…there’s nothing partisan about
this, I think that if one wanted to explain why so many people were so wrong
about weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, or if one wants to explain why
there was so little criticism in the early years with respect to Vietnam, they are
obviously not economic issues so it’s not the same economic mechanics, but I
think the same kinds of psychological and organizational mechanisms are in
play.”
That also fits, the same demand-side (Keynesian) economics are stopping the financial world
from buying silver, the markets enthralled as they are with the Fed model don’t see enough
demand upside to change silver’s price meaningfully. A gradual price improvement yes, but not
enough to see silver replicate the improvement in copper, nickel, “Future Facing” metals, etc. At
that point the dedicated economist of the three Goodfellows, John Cochrane, took the mike and
after congratulating Summers on his call, said the following:
“What I see in the Larry Summers secret sauce here is you understood
aggregate supply a little differently from the Fed. You looked at the GDP gap,
the potential GDP, whereas the Fed at best looks at labor market indicators,
and there is nobody in the looking at how many ships can get into the port of
Los Angeles.”
Bingo! That’s silver! Silver is inelastic supply, papered over by a financial market that doesn’t
9

unfetter prices because it doesn’t recognize the growth in physical demand! With the Achilles
Heel of the current silver paradigm apparent and my macro-economic interest piqued, it didn’t
take long to find academic papers written on the way supply-side economics had come back
into fashion and could explain the world’s bout of inflationary pressures. Now this may not be
new to you, but for one thing I’m an awful scholar and for another, I’ve had my head in the
sand and focused on juniors for months. Here’s an example from a January 2022 paper (3):
“The persistence of recent inflationary pressures at the goods CPI and PPI levels are
importantly related to the evolution of global supply factors such as production or
shipping bottlenecks and input prices: their global nature and their source (that is,
supply as opposed to demand) suggest that domestic monetary policy actions would
have only a limited effect on these sources of inflationary pressures.”
That paper makes the same point, the only difference to Summers being that he predicted the
inflation we see today and the authors of the paper are reporting on its arrival. Therefore, if my
hunch was right and the nominal silver price at market is no reflection of true demand for
physical, there should be clear examples of a market willing to overpay for the real thing. If
there is, we are looking at the same “pressure cooker” dynamic behind the current macro
inflationary pulse that would do the same to silver soon. As noted above we shouldn’t look to
industrial demand, they are the very people who prefer Comex, Nymex, SLV the way it is and
will try to keep a lid on the price of silver. Instead, we must look toward the speculators and
those betting on silver going higher.
Step forward the American Eagle. The US 1oz silver coin is the lingua franca of the silver world
and sets the price for most silver coinage, in much the same way that Brent or WTI sets the
price of a barrel of oil. Here’s a chart of the London PM Silver Fix versus the price being paid for
the American Eagle silver coin:
Silver: Spot silver vs.1oz American Eagle price, end month
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
10
9102naj ram yam luj pes von 0202naj ram yam luj pes von 1202naj ram yam luj pes von 2202naj ram
U$/oz Ag
spot end month
US Silver Eagle
source: monex.com/kitco.com
That, ladies and gents, is the silver market equivalent of the container ship back-up into the
port of Los Angeles. The world has always paid up for a shiny, minted and officially distributed
1oz silver coin Made In The USA, no problem with that, but in recent times premiums are
through the roof. The same data in percentage terms makes the case more obvious:
Silver: Premium paid to spot for 1oz American Eagle, end month
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
9102naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 0202naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 1202naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 2202naj bef ram rpa
source: monex.com kitco.com
tops
ot
muimerp
%
to spot
to month avg

Back in 2019, the buyer of an American Eagle was willing to pay $2.00 to $2.50 extra for their
coin, compared to silver spot. These days the gap is more than $10 for the same deal. That’s
spot +40% and quite remarkable, as for the source data go here (4) and here (5).
When the Covid-19 lockdown and crisis hit, American Eagle demand continued even as spot
silver made its swift drop and rebound, hence the premium spike over 40% you see at that
time. Then came the “silver squeeze” of February 2021 and in this context, is easy to see why
the attempt to ram through a tidal change in the price of silver failed so miserably; those who
wanted to “Break The System” (or however they framed it) tried to do so from inside the
futures market. The premium of US Eagles to silver dropped for a while as spot rose, but it
didn’t take much more than a couple of contract rollovers to break the rebellion and keep the
market in charge of silver’s price discovery, as it was industry in charge of the drainage (or lack
of) in physical. However, the canary in the coalmine is the amount of silver available for
purchase and use, by which we mean the real, physical stuff. This chart shows how the
pressure cooker of silver premiums has increased and, rather impressively, we’re back at the
levels last seen at the peak of the lockdown crisis. Back then, the restricted supply of physical
silver could not keep up with demand and the crisis made headlines. This time around, it’s more
like the famous frog in gently heated water and how poor froggy dies of inertia and ignorance.
The phenomenon has the so-called silver stackers as its canary in the coalmine, a segment of
society that can be…ahem…strident in its beliefs. But don’t be too quick with the scoffs, as they
are now a significant market and should not be dismissed lightly. Last year silver coins alone
(i.e. NOT including bullion bars) accounted for 15% of world metal demand and according to
The Silver Institute’s February bulletin (6),
“Physical silver investment demand (consisting
Perth Mint; Silver product sales, per quarter
of silver bar and bullion coin purchases) is
projected to jump 13 percent in 2022, achieving
a 7-year high.” However, there’s enough
evidence to suggest even those Silver Institute
estimates are underestimating current demand.
Take for example The Perth Mint in Australia,
which saw record demand for its physical silver
products in 1q22 (right) of 5.66Moz Ag. That’s
23.3% higher than the same quarter of 2021
(which included the famous silver squeeze) and
22.5% higher than in 4q21. For what it’s worth,
today’s IKN pre-empts the next The Silver
Institute annual report, set for release at the end of this month and when that document drops,
look out for upward revisions on its demand forecasts for investment silver.
However, to get the pressure cooker to burst coin stackers are not enough, it’s going to take
signals from the big financial world that supply side economics are back. For example, you’d
also expect to see demand for physical silver rising in other places, such at the COT
(Commitment of Traders) weekly data so here’s the COT Index versus the price of silver over
the last 12 months. Here we see how the index has grown through 2022 and remained at
+100k since Russia started its thing in Ukraine.
11
95.4
23.5
16.4 26.4
66.5
Moz Ag
6
5.5
5
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
1q21 2q21 3q21 4q21 1q22
source: Perth Mint data

To paraphrase the simplified definition of the COT index, it represents the positioning of large
traders and when it heads up, it means they are bullish about the gold market. The above is
clearly bullish and here’s a closer look at the same data for 2022 YTD only:
This COT data (7) provide support for current silver prices, no need for conspiracy theories or
conjecture regarding future demand. However, also telling and from the same website is the
quiet accumulation that’s been going on in SLV (8), the world’s largest silver ETF. This 2022
YTD chart of SLV flow of funds, again versus the silver price for context:
Before January 24th and that +180m spike in SLV funds flow, 2022 was roughly neutral. Since
then and for the last 12 weeks, we’ve seen just six net outflow days in SLV (and three of those
were tiny), against 20 net inflow days. Also most notably, the last month has seen net inflows
even during in period in which silver steadily dropped in price on the futures market. That’s a
clear disconnect between the nominal price of silver and what’s going on in the real world of
end user demand. It’s the type of signal that says “pressure cooker”.
Discussion and conclusion
The silver market is notoriously price-sticky and, as a result, will from time to time go through
moments of tremendous price volatility both to the upside and downside. That is part of its
attraction of course, as volatility attracts traders and speculators and, if you get the call right,
you can make a lot of money quickly. With that said the problem is also obvious, it’s a very
difficult market to call with accurate timing and price targets. To misquote JM Keynes, Silver
prices “can stay irrational longer than you can stay alive”, financially speaking at least.
That said, we seem to be either at or close to a point in the financial cycle at which silver
breaks and moves higher. This desk is not stupid enough to attempt a guess on the timing of
any move, but there are clear indications of pressure cooker dynamic growing and a rise in real
physical demand from the investment or speculator community. It’s coming at the same time as
a macro inflationary pulse that took the broad markets largely unawares, due to its bad read of
what was behind the pressure that built up. It took a Larry Summers to go back and consider
12

the present day using old-school economics to see what was happening and, for all intents and
purposes, what’s happening in silver is a microcosm of what has just happened to the macro
economy. In the same way tectonic pressures build up before a major earthquake, the pressure
building on the price of silver from coin stackers, bar buyers, SLV owners and now even traders
using the futures markets and opposing end-users as seen in the COT data, suggest we’re close
to one of those moments when silver rips away from its financial fetters and moves quickly
higher. At the very least, the COT data above strongly suggests there’s enough backbone to
maintain the current U$25/oz-and-above price deck which means risk is biased to the upside.
Exact timing of any sharp move higher in silver isn’t difficult, it’s plain impossible. However,
there’s enough pressure from real money buying into real bullion to suggest we’re close and
2022 is certainly a better candidate for a new and higher silver price deck than 2021 and its
manufactured silver squeeze nonsense, built on hope, promoted by gurus and doomed to fail.
This time around, not only is there fundamental backbone to the price of silver, but there’s also
a broad market that doesn’t understand where the next impulse is likely to come from. One
look at the premium paid by American Eagle buyers is enough to give them a clue, but in the
same way Larry Summers’ warnings in February 2021 about macro inflation fell on deaf ears,
the sophisticated “smart money” of Wall St will continue to mock silver stackers’ propensity to
overpay for the right to own an ounce of silver. Until it’s too late.
This desk believes there are strong fundamental reasons to believe we’re close to seeing silver
higher and when it happens, it won’t move up in a gradual manner. Don’t ask me when and
don’t ask me for exact price targets, as for your preferred allegorical image choose a logjam,
pressure cooker, frog-in-warm water or a tremor before a major earthquake, that’s up to you.
However and whenever, silver seems to be setting up for U$30+/oz prices and if so, you’ll want
to be bought in before the move happens, rather than after.
Stocks to Follow
I’ll go with the glass-half-full this weekend, despite there being no big winners on the list and
just nine (MAI.v, RIO.v, DSV.v, MUX, QCCU.v, SGI.v, ELBM.v, WRN.to, MENE.v) of the 19 open
positions from this time last week as winners, next to two unchanged stocks (APN.v, MIRL.cse)
and eight losers (ARG.to, ECU.v, CKG.v, ALDE.v, SMD.v, PA.v, MNO.to, NCAU.v). That’s because
most of the portfolio’s larger positions, including its two Top Picks, made gains and the losers
tended to be minor in nature.
We’re now into our fourth week of the new Stocks to Follow presentation table With the loss of
MUX we are down to 18 open positions, two below our self-imposed maximum. Eleven are in
positive territory and seven are underwater on cost entry basis.
13

company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.72 242.9% $1.14 tgt, #1 idea on FY22 dev
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v STR BUY C$0.83 22-Apr-18 C$0.79 -4.8% $1.30 tgt May22 permit catalyst
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Amerigo Res ARG.to STR BUY C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.75 28.7% $2..40 tgt on FY22 guidance
Discovery Silver DSV.v STR BUY C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.88 6.2% Best Ag play, 1st tgt $2.75
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v BUY C$0.275 25-Apr-21 C$0.285 3.6% Now drilling. Easy hold
Superior Gold SGI.v BUY C$0.96 3-Apr-22 C$1.11 15.6% IKN670 idea, now active trade
Element 29 ECU.v BUY C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.55 -5.2% Cu exploreco w/ 2 Peru assets
SPECULATIVE TRADES
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v SPEC BUY C$3.26 20-Feb-22 C$3.24 -0.6% "Leverage to gold" started well
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v SPEC BUY C$0.72 16-May-21 C$0.84 16.7% Assay catalyst in Q1 and Q2
Strategic Metals SMD.v BUY C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.38 -9.5% Canada land bet+Zn in FY22
Palamina Corp PA.v SPEC BUY C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.16 -45.8% Au expl in S.Peru
Altiplano Metals APN.v SPEC BUY C$0.31 17-Sep-21 C$0.32 3.2% Cheap entry, plan on track.
Minera IRL MIRL.cse hold C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.08 -59.0% CEO change will move stock
FIVE TRADE IDEAS FROM IKN670, March 2022 (yellow not owned, blue owned)
Meridian Mining MNO.v BUY C$0.88 20-Mar-22 C$0.99 12.5% tracking IKN670 idea
Superior Gold SGI.v BUY C$0.95 20-Mar-22 C$1.11 16.8% tracking IKN670 idea
Newcore Gold NCAU.v BUY C$0.51 20-Mar-22 C$0.50 -2.0% tracking IKN670 idea
Electra Battery ELBM.v BUY C$5.31 20-Mar-22 C$6.16 16.0% tracking IKN670 idea
Western Copper WRN.to BUY C$2.41 20-Mar-22 C$2.96 22.8% tracking IKN670 idea
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.67 6-Dec-20 C$0.69 3.0% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
McEwen Mining MUX Apr'22 U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.82 -7.9% No 2022 turnaround, cut loss
2015 to 2021 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for some notes on some of our covered stocks, but keeping it very brief this weekend.
McEwen Mining (MUX): POSITION CLOSED: Goodbye losing trade. It almost goes without
saying that if I’d waited another day or two I could have got out at 85c instead of 82c, but a
kick in the rear end on the way out is part of the price one pays for closing out a failure.
Chesapeake Gold (CKG.v): ADDED A FEW. And it really was a few, leaving room to add
another small tranche in the days to come. It wasn’t even enough to move the cost average
from its previous notch and with MUX now closed, there’s no real excuse not to. So, may even
add a few more.
Superior Gold (SGI.v): Thursday 14th saw SGI give a webinar as part of a online/physical
hybrid conference in Europe. I believe the link (9) has a recording of the event, so check it out
on that link. CEO Chris Jordaan gave the talk (reading from script) and as for content, he
confirmed the four-stage growth program and with Stage One (steady state production of up to
85,000oz/annum), the company is looking to move first to a 100k/annum run rate, then to
150koz/annum run rate by re-starting the second ball mill. Finally, the longer-term plan is to
become a mid-tier by sourcing new locations. The only new news I picked up was how CEO
Jordaan now estimates run rate will get to an annualized 100k/oz year by second half of this
14

year, which means the current house forecast of an average of 23,000/oz per quarter in 3q22
and 4q22 looks light. Not a bad thing. In other news, we should get 1q22 production numbers
this week and if so, expect plenty more on this bright-starting trade in IKN675, next weekend.
Minera Alamos (MAI.v): We’re suspiciously close to a breakout in MAI. This two-year price
chart shows how the week’s close is equal to the 52-week high and has only been beaten by a
couple of spiky occasions back in 2020, as the market bubbled from out the Covid-19 crisis.
On the other hand, MAI was one of many mining stocks that saw late buying on small-ish
volumes and the best prices of the week, so it’s up for debate as to whether the 72c price sticks
in the week to come. That will depend as much on the gold price action as anything else, but in
the medium-term we’re looking set fair for a good year out of the house Top Pick and my
largest personal holding.
QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v): At face value a positive week, up 7.5% and thanks my cost
average, a personal red 3.8% loss becomes a green 3.8% gain. However, the real story is…
…that until the stock price breaks out of the funk it’s been in since late January, there’s nothing
to write home about. The good news is that QCCU is easy to hold at these prices, with all the
risk to the upside and a very cheap stock price, as long as it delivers on the 2022 plan and the
resource growth we expect.
Mene Inc (MENE.v): While volumes have been thin, it’s encouraging to see MENE move in
the right direction as we approach its 2021 YE earnings report, which should be followed
reasonably quickly by the 1q22 numbers.
Discovery Silver (DSV.v): Chair Murray John is genuinely delighted, according to last week’s
NR that announced the arrival of Tony Makuch to the DSV board (10):
“We are genuinely delighted to welcome Tony to our Board. Tony has had a highly
15

successful career in mine operations and executive management and has an
exemplary track-record of creating stakeholder value. Tony’s appointment to the Board
complements the recent recruitment of Tony Esplin as our Chief Operating Officer.
These appointments support our continued growth, positioning us with the operating
talent and experience to develop Cordero into a globally significant Tier 1 silver mine.”
…and while your author isn’t going to fawn as much, little else to nitpick about in that message.
Good projects attract good people and seeing Makuch willing to put his name against Cordero is
the type of corporate franking that goes down very well with financiers and serious money
backers. We also agree with the way Chair John combined the recent appointment of Tony
Esplin into the messaging.
In trading, DSV had a good week and got a modest boost from the Makuch news, but it still
trades under $2.00 and that’s bargain basement level. The company did itself no favours last
year when it guided for a Pre-Feas just six months after the arrival of its PEA, only to walk that
back to a year, but with 2022 now ticking on it won’t be so very long before Q4 and the slated
publication of the PFS. In the meantime, we can expect plenty of newsflow from the ongoing
and comprehensive drill program that is infilling and out-stepping at Cordero, so there’s bound
to be continued radar presence. With silver where it is (and looking ready to go higher, see
above), don’t think twice about this company at any price under C$2.00 because at some point,
the choppy volatility will stop.
Electra Battery (ELBM.v): It didn’t happen
quite as smoothly as first expected and the
consolidation date was finally set back to
Wednesday, but the 18-to-1 share rollback
finally went through and when it did, the
market reacted positively.
The Copper Basket
After fifteen weeks of 2022, The Copper Basket shows a loss of 3.88% level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/22 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Copper Mtn CMMC.to 3.42 210.166 735.58 3.50 2.3%
2 Western Copper WRN.to 2.00 151.451 448.29 2.96 48.0%
3 Oroco Res OCO.v 2.04 203.4 386.46 1.90 -6.9%
4 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.77 88.028 357.39 4.06 7.7%
5 Nevada Copper NCU.to 0.71 448.437 278.03 0.62 -12.7%
6 Hot Chili HCH.v 1.53 109.223 156.19 1.43 -6.5%
7 Meridian Min MNO.to 1.18 153.735 152.20 0.99 -16.1%
8 Regulus Res. REG.v 1.06 101.845 126.29 1.24 17.0%
9 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.84 114.495 96.18 0.84 0.0%
10 C3 Metals CCCM.v 0.16 645.379 67.76 0.105 -34.4%
11 Kutcho Copper KC.v 0.88 103.94 60.29 0.58 -34.1%
12 Doré Copper DCMC.v 0.79 66.123 49.59 0.75 -5.1%
13 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.58 79.24 43.58 0.55 -5.2%
14 QC Copper QCCU.v 0.34 129.06 36.78 0.285 -16.2%
15 Coast Copper COCO.v 0.13 41.335 5.58 0.135 3.8%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg -3.88%
16

The Copper Basket average improved by 2% last week on the back of seven winners (OCO.v,
WRN.to, HCH.ax, REG.v, CCCM.v, QWCCU.v,
COCO.v) and two unchanged stocks (MARI.to, The Copper Basket 2022, weekly evolution
4%
KC.v), with six losers as ballast (CMMC.to, NCU.to,
2%
MNO.v, ALDE.v, DCMC.v, ECU.v). So a headcount
0%
favours bulls slightly, but what really mattered are
-2%
the three large percentage winners, but zero larger
-4%
losers. The good moves came from Oroco (OCO.v
-6%
up 11.8%), C3Metals (CCCM.v up 10.5%...a penny)
-8%
and Hot Chili (HCH.v up 9.2%).
-10%
We’re at that moment in the market cycle when
futures positions are rolled forward into the next
liquid expiry date. In the case of copper and
Comex, that means the May’22 contract, (featured here) started the week as the main price
driver but closed Thursday with lower open interest than the July’22 contract (that we’ll
probably use as our indicative chart as
from next weekend). It was, therefore, no
surprise to see copper futures move
during the week from the recent
backwardation and into contango, thereby
making those rolling over pay around
2c/lb extra for the privilege of closing out
their May positions. It was also
unsurprising to see the market get
summarily sat upon on the main rollover
day, Thursday (right). It’s not as if the
chronic supply shortage that we’ve been
banging on about for weeks on end had
suddenly improved, either. For more on
that, we take in this Reuters note (11) on
LME Shadow Stocks, that grey area of the
inventories scene that supposes copper held in unbonded warehouses at any given time, with
those tonnages waiting for an opportune moment to enter into the LME or SHFE systems (at
the right price). But as we’ve mentioned previously, this year is different and seen shadow
stocks depleted away. The note’s main feature metal is alu, but the thrust of its commentary
applies to all metals, here’s a quote on the copper situation:
“Off-warrant copper inventory collapsed from 175,000 tonnes in February 2021 to just
18,352 tonnes at the end of February this year.”
We are approaching the end of the re-stock cycle for the world’s warehousing systems, the so-
called suppliers of last resort. With stocks universally thin on the ground, the “sleepwalk into
stockout”, as The Goldman analyst put it, is set to cause its price disruption as 2022 moves into
its third quarter. So be on copper before that begins.
Now for our weekly look at copper inventories, data from Cochilco:
 World copper stocks added another 10,354 metric tonnes last week, the total of the
three official systems this weekend standing at 278,796mt. However, very little has
changed in reality and the supply of copper is still tight.
 SHFE stocks remained unchanged, testament to the current lockdown in the city and
any copper flowing into China has had to take different routes. We remain at 96,581mt.
 The LME saw stocks rise by 6,900mt last week, once again the only big movement
being a 4,300mt inflow to South Korea. This weekend’s total is 110,675mt and as per
last weekend, it still should be a lot higher.
17
ts1naJ ht9naJ ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6bef ht31 ht02 ht72 ht6raM ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3rpA ht01 ht71
source: IKN calcs

 The only significant move on the week came at the Comex, which saw a larger lump of
3,454mt arrive at its US-based warehouses. The total this weekend is 71,540mt but as
that tonnage will have great difficulty in making it across the Pacific, it’s not much help
for China’s copper shortage. Instead, we may start seeking Comex take a more active
role in price discovery if the LME’s creaking system comes under more criticism.
Politically, it’s to the USA’s advantage to see China paying more for its input costs.
Here’s the dedicated SHFE chart, which didn’t move last week. Much like the traffic on
Shanghai’s urban freeways.
Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2014 to date
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
18
31'13ceD dr32 ht02 ht51 ht01 ht5tco ht03 ht52 dn22 ht71 ht21 ht6pes ts1von 102ht72ced ts12 ht71 ht21 ht7guA dn2tcO ht4ceD ht92 ht62 ts12 ht61 ht01 7102
ht5von
ts13 ht52 dn22 ht42 ht91 ht41 ht9 9102
dr3bef
ts13 ht62 ts12 ht51 ht01 0202ht5naj 0202ts1ram ht62 ts12 ht61 ht11 0202ht6ced ts13 ht82 dr32 ht81 ht21 ht7 2202dn2naj ht72
Mt Cu
|
source: Cochilco
Now for notes on a couple of our basket stocks:
Oroco Resources (OCO.v): A decent pop last week, which began with a move against the
grain on Monday and got steady support all week. OCO is due to report its next set of drill
results in the next week (or two, max) and while the price action may by connected to that
upcoming news, this look more like a technical adjustment to me. OCO has room to appreciate
upo to the new warrants overhang level (around C$2.30) and in a peppy copper market, should
make it back above the C$2.00 without hitting any serious headwinds.
Hot Chili (HCH.v): The last time this desk considered HCH, it was over at the open blog in
this post (12) dated March 30th (i.e. two weeks ago), on the occasion of the company’s updated
JORC compliant resource estimate, with the company NR here (13). From that update, here’s
the overview visual which includes the total resource (top right) and the main breakdown of the
resource between the established Productora Resource and the development target, Cortadera:

In that post dated March 30th, I also summed up my main issue with HCH and its project. In
there words “It’s The Grade” and the brief paragraph is reproduced here:
“…the reason why I still pass on HCH, resource upgrade or not. For sure the “numbers
work” and you can justify a mine that offers good free cash flow but the thing is, at
C$4.50/lb+ copper they all work, every single copper project out there will be able to
say the same. HCH isn’t the rattiest, but the current price deck means it’s difficult to
find a deposit that cannot show positive economics, on paper at least, and you cannot
build ’em all. Regarding HCH and Costa Fuego, with copper prices up that turns more
waste grade into ore so seeing overall grade drop is reasonable, but low grade is low
grade and that’s not going to change. But my main issue is the new cut-off, because
it’s not as if costs have stood still in Chile. Seeing HCH drop cut-off to 0.21% at the
same time smacks of “too much optimization” and while on the subject, good luck with
that 0.3% cut assumption for underground material.”
That said, we move to the news from last week (14), which announced a hole that nominally
improves the overall grade at Cortadera. The “876m at 0.5% CuEq including 206m at 0.9%
CuEq” comes with several visuals and here’s one of them:
The drill assay is one of three pending from the same “Cuerpo 3” (Cuerpo = Body in Spanish)
zone and with holes pending from other areas of Cortadera, plus an RC rig currently at work at
Productora, we can expect more drill assay news from this company as it gears up to produce
its PFS, due in 3q22. However, two things:
While an improvement in overall grade, Cortadera is typically low grade higher in the system
and there is only one zone of better enrichment identified so far. While the 0.9% CuEq reported
from last week’s hole is fairly typical of the high grade at depth, it’s going to take a long time
for the mine plan to access the zone and the PFS will lean heavily on early-stage production
from Productora, then would have to eat through low grade open pit here at Cortadera before
eventually accessing the good stuff, most likely via a second underground (or block cave) plan.
As with the blog post of late March, it’s still difficult to make the case for HCH as the overall
grade doesn’t impress.
There’s also this, the way HCH tends to spike and drop on news:
19

It’s been this way ever since HCH listed and began trading its second ticker on the TSXV, and
seeing Glencore getting more deeply involved is another red flag for this desk. HCH has been
pushed and promoted in Australia for over a decade with little success and with Rick Rule in the
background, potentially trying to rid himself of a lot of legacy shares, it looks like its Canada’s
turn to get the same treatment. The bottom line is that on paper and in PFS they are bound to
be able to make the numbers work, however HCH is an average level project at best and there
are dozens of those that don’t get past the chalkboard stage. It was easy to avoid last year, it
remains that way today.
Copper Mountain (CMMC.to): I know I
said roughly the same thing last weekend
and don’t want to bore you (too much) by
labouring the point, but the flatline CMMC
trading last week again points to lacklustre
sentiment for the 1q22 results day, set for
April 26th (i.e. two Tuesdays’ time). There
wasn’t even much of a pulse on Thursday,
when most copper stocks that do reasonable
volume rebounded.
The Producer Basket
After fifteen weeks of 2022, the Producer Basket shows a gain of 26.63% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/22 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 62.02 797.44 67.60 84.77 36.7%
2 Barrick GOLD 19.00 1779 44.83 25.20 32.6%
3 Franco-Nevada FNV 138.29 191.192 31.94 167.06 20.8%
4 Agnico Eagle AEM 53.14 454.71 29.92 65.80 23.8%
5 Wheaton PM WPM 42.93 450.3 23.10 51.29 19.5%
6 Gold Fields GFI 10.99 887.72 13.64 15.36 39.8%
7 Kinross Gold KGC 5.81 1296.5 7.96 6.14 5.7%
8 B2Gold BTG 3.93 1055.6 5.25 4.97 26.5%
9 Alamos Gold AGI 7.69 392.503 3.54 9.02 17.3%
10 Sandstorm SAND 6.20 191.4 1.71 8.91 43.7%
All prices and stock quotes in U$ Port. avg 26.63%
20

Our Producer Basket had a net positive week on the back of the +1.4% move in GLD (our gold
bullion proxy), but its seven winners (NEM, FNV, AEM, WPM, BTG, AGI, SAND) also came with
three week-over-week losers (GOLD, GFI, KGC) and overall, the +3.0% move in the GDX
benchmark was better than our performance.
The 2022 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
35% comparative to GDX control
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
The best move came from B2Gold (BTG up 6.9%) on the back of its 1q22 production report but
aside BTG, most moves were minor in either direction.
B2Gold (BTG): The +6.9% during production report week looks good at first light (15), but if
we dial up the 10-day chart compared to GDX…
…all that really happened was a recovery from its under-performance of the previous week. The
actual production NR on April 14th was met with a shrug and considered in-line with
expectations by Mr. Market, this despite some fairly clear hints in the NR that costs are going to
be high for this quarter. The overall production figure of under 200k oz (excluding the Calibre
ounces) didn’t exactly knock any balls out of parks, either. The next date to watch at BTG is
May 3rd and its 1q22 financials report. These days, BTG is a widely-held stock among non-
specialist instos and it may come under pressure through earnings from fund managers that
have difficulty reading beyond headline numbers.
Barrick Gold (GOLD): Thursday pre-bell saw Barrick pre-announce its 1q22 production and
sales (16), as well as providing some limited
guidance on costs. This 10-day chart
comparing GOLD to main rival Newmont
(NEM) and industry benchmark GDX helps
keep the word count down in this edition:
Arguably this paragraph is the pay dirt:
As expected, preliminary Q1 gold
production was lower than Q4 2021
21
ts1naJ ht9naJ ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6bef ht31 ht02 ht72 ht6ram ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3rpa ht01 ht71
The 2022 Producer Basket: Percentage difference
between GDX benchmark & basket (negative = IKN ahead) 6.0%
5.0%
ikn 4.0%
gdx control
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
source: NYSE, IKN Calcs ts1naJ ht9naJ ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6bef ht31 ht02 ht72 ht6ram ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3rpa ht01 ht71
source: IKN calcs, NYSE data

including at: Carlin and Cortez following the depletion of stockpiled higher grade
underground ore processed in Q4 2021 after the mechanical mill failure at the
Goldstrike roaster in Q2 2021; Kibali and Turquoise Ridge due to planned
maintenance; and Tongon due to mine sequencing. As Q1 gold ounces sold are 20%
lower than the previous quarter, Q1 gold cost of sales per ounce2 is expected to be
10% to 12% higher, total cash costs per ounce3 are expected to be 15% to 17% higher
and all-in sustaining costs per ounce3 are expected to be 19% to 21% higher than Q4.
Two things from that: Firstly, the guidance for higher costs and there’s no need to repeat the
words, instead we laugh at Bloomberg’s coverage of the issue (17):
“Apart from a 20% drop in gold ounces sold, no other reasons
were given for the cost increase.”
Apparently, the Bloomie reporter seems to think you need another reason for a 20% increase in
AISC, other than a 20% drop in gold ounces. In other news, “Apart from the gas oven leaking
and the lighted candle, no other reasons were given for the explosion.”
I digress. Secondly, we understand the previous 4q21 was a bonanza quarter due to the backup
of production from Nevada Gold Mines, it’s also easy to accept the reasons given for Kibali,
Turquoise Ridge and Tongon as all those were pre-announced. However, notable by absences
was any word on the low sales numbers from Pueblo Viejo (104k oz Au) or Veladero’s (39k oz
Au) was notable by absence. Put them all together and this chart…
Barrick (GOLD): Segment sales, per qtr Nevada GM Loulo-Gounkoto
Pueblo Viejo Kibali
source: company filings
North Mara Veladero
Bulyanhulu Tongon
Au Koz Hemlo Buzwagi
Porgera
1300
1200
1100
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1q20 2q20 3q20 4q20 1q21 2q21 3q21 4q21 1q22
…shows how things were comparative lacklustre and would have been worse if it weren’t for
the good result out of Loulo-Gounkoto. Copper
Barrick Copper sales, per qtr
production was also down, but sales lag from 4q21 and
a strong average received price for copper (U$4.53/lb)
means we won’t notice the difference, AISC for this
minor area of GOLD results isn’t expected to see higher
average costs
Overall and taking all into consideration, GOPLD
deserved its share price drop in GOLD on Thursday and
while the company was at pains to point out that it had
warned/guided/forecast 1q22 would be the softest of
the year, even that doesn’t cover under 1m oz gold
sold. So before moving to the notes for the next company, here’s a chart that combines the
quarterly attributed sales of two of the GOLD segments, Nevada Gold Mines (61.5% owned by
Barrick, 38.5% by Newmont) and Pueblo Viejo (60% Barrick, 40% Newmont):
22
011 321 611 801 311 69 101 311 311
Cu Mlbs
150
125
100
75 50
25
0
1q20 2q20 3q20 4q20 1q21 2q21 3q21 4q21 1q22
source: company filings

Pueblo Viejo
Au Koz Barrick (GOLD): The Newmont JVs
Nevada GM
800
700
113
600 144 115 129 153
141 125
500 118 104
400
300 611
528 522 542 542 488 455 485 458
200
100
0
1q20 2q20 3q20 4q20 1q21 2q21 3q21 4q21 1q22
source: company filings
The aggregate 562k oz Au is the lowest for a long time and while GOLD gave reasons for the
low number from Nevada Gold Mines, while in The Dominican Republic Pueblo Viejo’s decline
seems to be connected to the ongoing debate on where to permit and allow the mine’s new
and required tailings facility extension. A few days ago the company and government
announced the location was down to a short-list of four places and pushback from locals for this
contentious project was immediate. While we shouldn’t doubt that the new facility will
eventually get a green light and happen, at the time same it’s clearly victim of political heel-
dragging and this comment on the issue from Barrick on April 8th (18) points to the underlying
problem:
The new TSF would enable operations at Pueblo Viejo to continue beyond 2040. As a
major creator of value for the Dominican Republic, the project will stop the decline in
production, and will facilitate the continued payment of taxes, exportation, jobs,
national and local purchases, and social benefits the mine brings to the country.
In 2021 the Tier One mine paid $527 million in direct and indirect taxes which brings
total tax payments since 2013 to more than $3 billion.
Translation: “Dear President Abinader, you are beginning to try my patience. Regards, Bristow.”
Newmont (NEM): Which brings us to the actionable part of this week’s Producer Basket
notes, the likelihood that NEM is going to report a 1q22 results miss this week. Here’s a date:
DENVER, April 04, 2022--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Newmont Corporation (NYSE: NEM,
TSX: NGT) today announced it will report first quarter 2022 operations and financial
results before the market opens on Friday, April 22, 2022, and will hold a conference
call at 10 a.m. Eastern Time (8:00 a.m. Mountain Time) the same day. The earnings
call will also be carried on the Company’s website
That’s next Friday, pre-opening bell, which gives you the days ahead to position and here are
the reasons we should expect a miss:
 Nevada Gold Mines and Pueblo Viejo: We know production and sales are on the low
side, we know that costs are coming in on the high side. See above for more.
 Boddington (and perhaps Tanami): This may or may not affect Tanami as much,
located as it is in the North/Central of Australia and literally thousands of Km from the
West coast, but there are two reasons to worry about the results from Boddington,
rightly considered NEM’s jewel in the crown due to its high annual production and low
quartile costs. Western Australia has seen an outbreak of Covid-19 that began to get a
grip in mid-February and took full hold in March and ground zero in and around the
Perth area. That’s Boddington’s backyard, as well as being its main source of
manpower. We know how Covid restrictions can drag on a company in both
productivity and costs, so we may see that reflected in NEM’s 1q21 results. The other
factor is the forex between the Australian Dollar and the US Dollar, as 1q21 saw the
Aussie strengthen by around 4.5% to the USD, a direct drag on costs at the mine.
23

2022 guidance is for 6.2m oz gold (GEO.7.5m oz AuEq). Of that, 2.435m oz gold comes from
Nevada Gold Mines (1.25m), Pueblo Viejo (0.285m) and Boddington (0.9m) combined. If you
add in the 0.6m Tanami guidance we’re over 3m oz from these mines and closing in on 50% of
the world’s biggest mining company’s consolidated guidance from its 15 operating units.
Therefore, its fair to say that Nevada Gold Mines, Pueblo Viejo and Boddington (and perhaps
Tanami) are key players in NEM’s report next Friday, therefore with Barrick guiding sales to the
low side and higher relative costs at Nevada Gold Mines and Pueblo Viejo, plus the likelihood of
Covid-related disruption at Boddington (and perhaps Tanami) as well as a Forex pair that has
moved against companies that operate in Australia but report in United States Dollars, this desk
sees NEM as either an outright short going into its earnings week or perhaps, as an equal and
opposite to the call made into its 4q21 earning report, the short side of a long/short pair trade
with GDX or perhaps Barrick (that reports on May 4th, for what that’s worth).
Finally, NEM also announced last week that it would indeed acquire the remnant 5% of its
Yanacocha SA subsidiary from owner Sumitomo, with the U$48m cash deal closing later this
quarter (19). Sumitomo bought the tranche from The IFC (the World Bank’s financing arm) in
2018 and had benefited since then from proportional dividends, the Japanese company also
had the right to sell its 5% to Newmont for the same price in the event of ownership
consolidation. So it did.
The TinyCaps List
After fifteen weeks of 2022, the TinyCaps show a gain of 1.52% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/22 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Aurelius Min AUL.v 0.24 37.134 11.14 0.30 25.0%
Golden Pursuit GDP.v 0.13 34.638 4.68 0.135 3.8%
Infield Min INFD.v 0.06 48.276 2.17 0.045 -25.0%
Kingfisher Met KFR.v 0.30 84.57 16.07 0.19 -36.7%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.12 57.296 7.45 0.13 8.3%
Manitou Gold MTU.v 0.06 344.47 18.95 0.055 -8.3%
Melkior Res MKR.v 0.295 24.011 7.20 0.30 1.7%
Precipitate Gold PRG.v 0.105 129.322 16.81 0.13 23.8%
Signature Res SGU.v 0.07 238.4 21.46 0.09 28.6%
Winshear Gold WINS.v 0.08 61.585 4.62 0.075 -6.3%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 1.52%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $20m. They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a
little and allowed sub-U$20m market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, but it was a particularly depressing exercise to trawl through the whole of the TSXV and find companies
that are small enough, but with life in them. The vast majority of sub-$20m stocks are broken stocks, either
traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2020. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
A negative week for our list but the overriding theme is still general apathy for the tinycaps end
of the market.
There were just two winners from our ten stocks last week, so a cheer for Melkior (MKR.v) and
24

Precipitate Gold (PRG.v) with the latter stock preparing for a period of market action. One stock
remained unchanged on the week (INFD.v) which
leaves seven losers (AUL.v, GDP.v, KFR.v, LMS.v, 14% TinyCaps, 2022 weekly tracker
MTU.v, SGU.v, WINS.v) and of those, the biggest 12%
drop came from Winshear (WINS.v down 16.7%) 10%
as it continues to bounce between 7.5c and 9c, 8%
then back to 7.5c. 6%
4%
Precipitate Gold (PRG.v): A friendly reminder 2%
about the most recent placement run by PRG, 0%
which closed on December 30th and sold -2%
22,454,333 units of the Company for gross
proceeds of C$2,179,390 (the “Offering”). The
financing was a mix of flow-through units priced
at 9c and non-flow-through priced at 10c, all units coming with a half warrant with a 15c strike.
We’re now 110 days into the 121 days escrow period, which means that just before the end of
this month, there will be plenty of room for takers of that placement to clip their warrants, take
profits and ride the freebies. In other words, we may be coming into a period of selling
pressure for PRG, so perhaps they will try to prime the price with some news beforehand. Jeff
Reeder may be many things, but he isn’t dumb about the way the Canadian markets work.
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future
I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
Ecuador: Lasso’s strategy begins to form
On Tuesday, President Guillermo Lasso of Ecuador gave the best indication yet of his plans to
move his country forward in the way he sees fit. He announced that by the end of this month,
his government will offer a range of questions that would then be put to the country’s
Constitutional Court for approval. Assuming they are approved (there are limits to what he can
propose as changes, Ecuador then gets a national referendum, at which Lasso will seek popular
approval for the policy measures. In this way, he skips past his contentious Congress and,
according to the plan at least, can enact the policy measures he promised on assuming
government. What could possibly go wrong?
In fact a lot, as this is a high-risk strategy and a lot with depend on the substance of the
questions he wants to put to referendum, as well as the style of the proposal. According to all
sources, including his newly appointed Interior Minister, There will be four general concepts in
the proposals; investment and employment, “security”, reforms to the party political system and
changes to bureaucracy that will make citizen participation easier in the future. Of those four
25
dn2naJ ht9
naJ
ht61naJ dr32 ht03 ht6bef ht31 ht02 ht72 ht6ram ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3rpa ht01 ht71
source: IKN calcs, TSX data

the one that most concerns us on the outside is the former and it’s widely anticipated that
Lasso will try to get the “Investment Law” which was rejected by Congress to pass via
referendum, either as a whole on in piecemeal, question-by-question manner.
Therein lays the rub; with four themes in the proposed referendum and who know how many
sub-sectors to each, Ecuador may end up with a referendum with dozens of questions if the
executive isn’t careful (or is stupid). However, we do know Lasso is keen on promoting Foreign
Direct Investment (FDI) and has big plans for the country’s mining industry too, so we can
expect at least some of the measures to aim for those subjects. His rejected “Investment Law”
included easier permitting for mining projects, the reduction of local community rights to “prior
consultancy” and several attractive tax breaks for both new businesses and imported goods,
that’s a dream list for the average mining company. However, there’s no jumping the gun on
this and the process will only begin at the end of this month once we know the questions Lasso
would like to put before his country, a long way between then and getting a new panacea for
mining.
Argentina: Josemaria’s EIA permit makes the country look good
On schedule and as anticipated on the blog (20), Monday April 11th saw the Josemaria project,
owned by Josemaria Resources (JOSE.to) and soon to be owned by Lundin Mining (LUN.to),
receive its key EIA permit from the government of San Juan in Argentina, full pomp, bells and
whistles on display (21), with provincial and national dignitaries lining up for the photo
opportunity. The news was carried on the JOSE website (22) but didn’t get much trumpeting
outside of Argentina in the mining news cycle, surprising given the circumstances. In fact, this
is the first EIA permit awarded for a copper project in Argentina for 25 years and the type of
news that can open the floodgates for permits and social acceptance of large-scale mining
projects for the whole country.
The event didn’t escape the attention of Argentina’s “Superminister” of Production, Matrias
Kulfas, either. Arguably the second most powerful political figure in the country behind
President Fernández, Kulfas was in San Juan province a couple of days after the event and
made the Josemaria EIA award centrepiece of his press conference that day. Here’s a link to his
extended comments (23) and here’s your author’s translation of the main message:
During a press conference, Kulfas highlighted that the events earlier in the week, when
the EIA permit award for the Josemaria project, are without doubt excellent news not
only for San Juan but for the country.
“The country has spectacular mining potential, we’re experiencing a wave of mining
investment in Argentina that is going to change the face of the country and generate
thousands of jobs”, he said while visiting the province of San Juan. As a reflection, he
commented that today the challenge for authorities and communities is, “What we do
so that this spectacular project develops here in San Juan, boosts development of
hundreds of small businesses and suppliers. Clearly, this is a new panorama.”
“We have problems (as a country) yes, but today many of those concern what we do to
produce more and how to obtain supplies and raw materials, in a difficult world
backdrop that lacks them. The pandemic created instability and the war in Ukraine is
creating headaches, but here we are because we believe in an Argentina of production
and employment, here we’re ready to stand up and be counted and that’s what I want
to underscore.”
Matias Kuflas also referred to environmental protection as concerns mining. He said,
“We need to do good mining, caring for the environment and developing suppliers in all
the country. Enough with binary thinking, we need everybody to grow and move
forward.”
The Minister added details of mining investment in Argentina, saying that the country
now has, “…more than U$4.2Bn of investments in lithium projects, now large
investments in copper are appearing which are important for the technological
transition that will allow us to move in electric vehicles, that will allow us the develop
electronic technologies together with gold and silver mining in Argentina.”
26

“This is a great moment for mining investment, around U$12Bn that without doubt will
change the face of Argentina as we know it, to become a growth engine for industry
and many service sectors. Without losing sight of the problems we have in the
economy, we also see what we have achieved (in the mining sector). For this, I want to
recognize the efforts of business people who continue producing, who don’t give up
and have not doubted at the moment to invest in the future or to create employment.
All this has been achieved by working together. We need national and international
investment and active small businesses, all of us working in the same direction,” he
concluded.
This desk has been clear about the strongly positive new wave of backing for the mining
industry under the Fernández administration for months on end, the sector and its FDI being
one of the centrepieces of its deal with the IMF. Argentina needs hard dollars, private mining
companies with large-scale mining projects are a source. It’s a continued mystery to this desk
that the country is still being labelled as anti-mining or unattractive to FDI, simply because its
current government is Peronist. Nothing could be further from the truth and in fact, Argentina
under Fernández has finally got its mining act together.
Market Watching
Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) 1q22 production (in US Dollars unless stated)
Romeo: Oh, let us hence.
I stand on sudden haste.
Friar Lawrence: Wisely and slow.
They stumble that run fast.
Romeo and Juliet, Act 2, Sc3
On Tuesday April 12th, our largest copper position Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) announced on
its 1q22 production results and for those who have better things to do than wade through a
bunch of charts, the need-to-know is straightforward: The numbers were in-line with
expectations and on its fundamentals, the stock is a clear buy at current levels. However and
before diving into the details, we also need consider the current elephant in Amerigo Resources’
(ARG.to) room. Here’s the comparative 2022 YTD price chart for ARG.to and the copper
producers ETF, COPX:
Since peaking recently at C$2.00 has been sold back down to (what looks like) the average for
the copper producer sub-sector since the latest rally began, just before Christmas 2021. In fact,
if memory serves somebody paid C$2.01
intraday in late March and even now, with
ARG closing the week at C$1.75 and I cannot
blame them. As for the recent history, this
ten-day chart comparing the same squiggly
lines shows how the 1q22 production pre-
release was received by the market last
week (right).
27

For a day and a half, ARG moved with the market but then, as from Wednesday afternoon,
failed to rally along with the rest and when Thursday came, was roundly ignored. The
Wednesday afternoon trading wasn’t great, but in mitigation seems we shouldn’t fret too much
about the quiet Thursday; volume was light across the board and it only took a few stocks to
catch a bid to prop the indicative benchmarks, son ARG not running with the others on light
trading isn’t a biggie. As for the wqay in which it has faded since touching $2.00, it’s only a
negative for people like me who are fully bought in, anyone thinking of opening or adding to
their ARG position now has a nice window of opportunity. Please recall, ARG itself was happy to
buy back its shares at an average of $1.83 during the month of March.
Recent price action covered, let’s move to the ARG NR from Tuesday April 12th (24) on its 1q21
production and preliminary sales numbers and, long story short, is an elaboration of “Quarter
In-Line, expect strong financials, ARG is going well, buy and own some shares”. We’ll take our
cue from Dylan Thomas to begin at the beginning, that means copper deliveries for the quarter
which came to 16.29m lbs delivered from production of 16.47m lbs. No issues to report and a
slight beat on our forecast 16m lbs Cu produced/sold. In-line.
ARG.to: Copper sales
28
29.21 568.31
945.91
70.42
28.11 7.31 29.41 9.51 11.51 31.51 9.61 298.61 92.61 41 61 61
25
22.5
20
17.5
15
12.5
10 7.5
5
2.5
0
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 tse22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
source: company filings
rtq/uC
sblM
While on this chart, we maintain our forecast of 14m lbs for 2q22 then 16m lbs for the final
quarters of the year and remind readers that these are conservative estimates; The current
quarter is affected by the programmed shutdown for annual maintenance and ARG noted last
week that was proceeding as planned: “MVC’s annual plant shutdown commenced on April 5
and is currently expected to be completed on April 13, 2022.” All in order, no surprises.
With the gross metal production in place, we consider the three datasets that will get us to a
top-line revenues estimate. Firstly is average received price for copper (below left), which came
in strongly at U$4.64/lb and handily above our previous guesstimate:
ARG: Average Cu price for MVC
Secondly molybdenum by-product production (above right), which was under our previous
forecast at 0.2m lbs Mo, ARG explaining this as due to the higher use of fresh tailings coming
directly from El Teniente (DET) and lower recourse to the Cauquenes historical tailings resource
that’s richer in Mo. When our expected average moly sales price is applied, by-product credits
are estimated at just over $0.3m, lower than our previous estimate but, as Mo is always going
29.2 76.2 26.2 67.2 53.2 16.2 40.3
25.3
80.4 44.4 32.4 23.4 46.4 08.4
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 22q1 tse22q2
U$/lb Cu ARG: Credit metal revenues
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
source: Company data/IKN ests
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 tse22q1
U$m
Cu slag revs
Mo revs
source: company filings

to be a minor part of the cash generated by ARG, not a deal-breaker. Finally we get to the
charges to gross value, dominated as always by the royalty ARG pays to its DET for tailings
supply. We estimate that at $22.1m, then smelting/refining ($5.5m) and transport ($0.5m).
ARG: Charges to gross Cu value
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
29
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 tse22q1 tse22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
U$m
Transport
smelting/refining
DET royalties
source: company filings, IKN ests
With that, we get to the total revenues estimate. This chart shows how the basic calculation of
copper sold X received price, estimated at U$78m after adjustments, turns into an estimated
U$53.1m in top line revenues:
ARG: Gross Cu value vs Total revs, per qtr
637.72 296.22 9.33
474.53
836.51
640.62
555.73
881.74 709.84 305.05 231.84 900.25 1.35
6.94
6.35 6.35
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 tse22q1 tse22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
U$m
source: company filings, IKN ests
That compares favourably to our previous estimate was $49.8m and that’s due to the strong
average received price for copper in the period.
We can now make a stab at the P+L items, starting with the general earnings overview chart
and again we include our estimates for future quarters, but in the 1q22 estimate we now have
our U$53.1m generated forecast. Next to that, overall costs come to U$34.5m.
ARG.to: Quarterly Earnings overview
139.8-
593.0-
389.8
927.51
878.81
721.91
291.41
198.91
6.81 6.71 6.91 6.71
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 tse22q1 tse22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
revenues
COGS
Gross profit
That’s around $0.5m higher than our previous model, due to operating cash costs reported by
ARG at $1.90/lb for the quarter. This is in-line with company guidance and ARG told us that in
the NR, but slightly higher than our house estimate as this desk had assumed Q1 would be the

cheapest of the year.
ARG.to: Costs breakdown
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
30
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 tse22q1 tse22q2
U$m
other
G&A+roy
COGS
source: company data, IKN ests
Below is the progression chart that gets us to an estimated operating profit of U$16.3m for
1q22 and a net estimate of U$11.7m. And for the umpteenth time, you now get the reminder of
how operating profits are the best yardstick for this junior producer with a sustaining capex
budget to cover, as well as a C-suite intent on returning capital to shareholders via its strong
dividend policy and aggressive share buyback program (with which it successfully defended
itself from shareholder activism last year, in turn the catalyst that got me into the stock at the
time). Net profits are interesting enough, but operating profits are the way forward.
ARG.to: Gross, operating and net profits, per qtr
09.4-
13.3-
60.8
44.31
40.61 70.81
56.21
15.71 03.61 03.51 03.71 03.51
26
24 22
20 18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 tse22q1 tse22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
U$m
Gross profit op profit
Net Income
source: ARG data
So that’s U$16.3m in operating profits for 1q22, let’s also take a moment to consider our
forecast estimates for the rest of the year because, even with the expected production lag in
the current 2q22, the 2022 copper price is set to prop its margins nicely, thanks very much. If
ARG can return over U$15m in operating
profits per quarter, the “bonus dividend”
ARG.to: Shares Out
200
slated for 4q22 could turn out to be juicy
195
indeed. And with the subject broached, here’s NB CUT DOWN Y-AXIS
190
the development and new estimate for the 185
share count (right), however be clear about 180
the Y-axis that starts at 150m to show the 175
170
changes more clearly, rather than drama.
165
160
Amerigo has not been hanging around with its 155
share buyback program and we should expect 150
them to continue in the same vein. That puts
the end March share count at a likely accurate
171.5m and by the end of the year, we’re not
forecasting another 5.5m shares extinguished and a total of 166.5m shares out. That’s a big
change from the near-182m at the end of 3q21 and puts dozens of other junior and mid-tier
mining companies’ buyback program to shame. There’s no sleight of hand going on at ARG,
where buybacks merely compensate for unending exercises of management bonus derivatives
(e.g. Sandstorm) or trumpeted buyback programs that are not used (e.g. Mako, First Majestic).
71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 tse22q1 tse22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
source: company filings, IKN ests
serahs
fo
snoillim

Assuming this desk gets it right, the ARG share count is set to shrink by a cool 8.5% in five
quarters and with every reason to expect the NCIB to continue into 2023 and beyond. This is
what cyclical companies are supposed to do and a direct benefit to their backers, so top marks
to CEO Davidson and her team, applause and laurels due.
Here’s how the money and the share count combine, with operating profits per share bouncing
between 9.5c and 10c for this year and classic net EPS steadily above 6c.
0.14 ARG.to: operating and net earnings per share
0.12
0.10
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0.00
-0.02
-0.04
31
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 tse22q1 tse22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
eps
op profit/share
source: company filings, IKN ests
More than enough to support the current dividend policy and, with treasury already at CEO
Davidson’s “We want $20m to $25m in liquidity”
levels, the IKN projection of a constant 3c/quarter ARG.to: Dividend projection, per qtr
8
dividend policy along with the “enhanced” end-year
7
payment is in danger of being beaten easily. That 6
5
5c payment for Q4 could turn out to be 7c, but
4
even if the chart below is accurate, the projected 3
5
2
C$0.14 gross dividends and the current C$1.75 3 3 3 3 3
1 2
share price implies an 8% yield. 0
That’s nothing short of excellent and, with ARG now
firmly in cash cow mode, instos and desks looking
for yield have to be attracted by ARG at this price point. Compare the current implied 8% yield
to Sandstorm’s 0.77%, Franco-Nevada’s 0.71%, Newmont’s 2.6%, Barrick’s 1.56% and you get
the picture; even though ARG is a smaller company with the issues that come with modest
market caps, its strong balance sheet position means the dividend payments are not under
threat as long as copper stays above $3.80/lb (we’ve done the math previously) and the 2022
bonanza prices for its main product don’t look like stopping anytime soon. A re-print of the
previously published yield spread table…
Amerigo (ARG.to): Dividend Yield Percentage Spread Table
Share Dividend paid per year (Canadian Dollar Cents)
price CAD$ 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
1.50 5.33 6.67 8.00 9.33 10.67 12.00 13.33
1.60 5.00 6.25 7.50 8.75 10.00 11.25 12.50
1.70 4.71 5.88 7.06 8.24 9.41 10.59 11.76
1.80 4.44 5.56 6.67 7.78 8.89 10.00 11.11
1.90 4.21 5.26 6.32 7.37 8.42 9.47 10.53
2.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00 10.00
2.10 3.81 4.76 5.71 6.67 7.62 8.57 9.52
2.20 3.64 4.55 5.45 6.36 7.27 8.18 9.09
2.30 3.48 4.35 5.22 6.09 6.96 7.83 8.70
2.40 3.33 4.17 5.00 5.83 6.67 7.50 8.33
2.50 3.20 4.00 4.80 5.60 6.40 7.20 8.00
2.60 3.08 3.85 4.62 5.38 6.15 6.92 7.69
source: ARG data, IKN estimates
…shows that at 14c/annum, this desk wouldn’t bat an eyelid if ARG went to C$2.50 as 2022
unfolds and with the share buyback program set to continue, a big year-end dividend could set
this share price on fire.
12q4 22q1 tse22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4 tse32q1 tse32q2
source: ARG filings, IKN ests
stnec
DAC

Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) didn’t get much reaction from the market last week, perhaps
because these days it’s a regular, un-sexy, cash cow of a story. In a market looking for an edge
and speculative beta, “results in-line” don’t set the world on fire but in this case, “in-line”
doesn’t imply a boring or average result, instead we should get ready for another exceptional
set of financial results when the company reports its quarter on Wednesday May 4th (so may
the forth be with you), along with the investor conference scheduled for Thursday, May 5 at
2pm EST. I’ll be on that call (details in the ARG NR), so expect more on this success story in
IKN677 that weekend with balance sheet items and notes on anything my model got wrong. In
the meantime, anyone looking for compelling
equity value in the copper space should look no
further, as the math is screaming about a
higher share price for Amerigo Resources in
the near future. It’s up nicely from our house
entry point but there’s a lot left in the tank. We
leave you with the five-year chart and a
reminder of how far ARG has come since it was
nearly ruined by previous CEO, Rob Henderson
but, since the Covid crisis two years ago, if you
very look closely you may be able to spot a
trend. Own some.
Conclusion
IKN674 is done, we end with bullet points:
 It’s nearly 3am and time to send this out, late because I was on evening feed duty for a
seven week old that decided he didn’t want to go back to sleep. So you guys waited
and we had fun, plus I had the advantage of see gold touching U$1,994/oz in Asia
trading before sending this edition, but enough is enough.
 As for silver, spot is still being capped under U$26/oz this evening but, if my theory
holds water, we shouldn’t have to wait too long to see a three handle on the price. As
for trading that information it’s up to you, but as I only have one dedicated silver play
to my name it looks as though I need to put more money and names where my mouth
is. Not easy though, the sector is filled with dross and over-valued companies.
 What’s more, I’m reasonably happy with the current balance and exposure of the main
trades and have as much faith in copper’s future as ever. It’s certainly been easier to
call over the years and in Amerigo (ARG.to), I hold a sure fire winner at current metals
prices.
 Wishing you all a belated but happy Easter.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stocks are Minera Alamos (MAI.v) and
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v). Flash updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best wishes, Mark
32

Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://www.silverinstitute.org/mine-production/
(2) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BhJlba7mGG4
(3) https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2022/01/the-global-supply-side-of-inflationary-pressures/
(4) https://www.monex.com/silver-american-eagle-price-charts/
(5) https://www.kitco.com/scripts/hist_charts/yearly_graphs.plx?ag2019=on&ag2020=on&submitagD=View+Data
(6) https://www.silverinstitute.org/global-silver-demand-forecast-reach-record-1-112-billion-ounces-2022/
(7) https://en.macromicro.me/charts/26790/slv-fund-flow-vs-silver
(8) https://en.macromicro.me/collections/3961/silver-managed-money/1209/silver-cot-silver-vs-silver
(9) https://www.goldforum.live/DGG/Superior-Gold-fb171a496adfe14413fb7e42
(10) https://www.globenewswire.com/en/news-release/2022/04/12/2420870/0/en/Discovery-Announces-Appointment-of-
Tony-Makuch-to-Board.html
(11) https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/vanishing-lme-shadow-stocks-add-metals-market-turmoil-2022-04-
13/
(12) https://iknnews.com/whats-changed-at-hot-chili-hch-ax-hch-v/
(13) https://www.hotchili.net.au/announcement/?aid=5491
(14) https://www.hotchili.net.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/HCH_33_Cortadera_Delivers-876m-grading-
0.5CuEq_14042022.pdf
(15) https://www.b2gold.com/news/b2gold-reports-strong-gold-production-for-q1-2022-with-total-gold-production-of-
209365-oz-5-above-budget-on-track-to-meet-annual-guidance-of-990000-to-1050000-oz-of-total-gold-production
(16) https://www.barrick.com/English/news/news-details/2022/q1-production-sets-barrick-on-track-to-achieve-2022-
targets/default.aspx
(17) https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-giant-barrick-inflation-finally-114919963.html
(18) https://www.barrick.com/English/news/news-details/2022/pueblo-viejo-moves-forward-with-life-of-mine-extension-
project/default.aspx
(19) https://www.newmont.com/investors/news-release/news-details/2022/Newmont-to-Acquire-Remaining-Stake-in-
Yanacocha/default.aspx
(20) https://iknnews.com/josemaria-jose-to-gets-its-eia-tomorrow/
(21) https://josemariaresources.com/news-releases/josemaria-receives-approval-for-environmental-soci-122849/
(22) https://www.diariolaprovinciasj.com/sociedad/2022/4/11/se-aprobo-la-declaracion-de-impacto-ambiental-de-
josemaria-hubo-requerimientos-que-se-establecieron-171295.html
(23) https://mineriaydesarrollo.com/2022/04/13/kulfas-sobre-josemaria-vivimos-una-oleada-de-inversiones-mineras-que-
van-a-cambiarle-la-cara-al-pais/
(24) http://www.amerigoresources.com/_resources/news/nr_2022_04_12.pdf
33

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Set-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Abr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
34

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Ago-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Set-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Ene-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Set-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Ene-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Set-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Ago-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Abr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Set-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Abr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Set-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
35

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-ago-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-ene-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-abr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-abr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-ene-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-ene-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-abr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-abr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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