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The IKN Weekly
Week 673, April 10th 2022
Contents
This Week: Trade heads-up, In Today’s Edition, Revisiting the silver price and Red Dog Stick.
Fundamental Analysis: Overview, Updating on Western Copper & Gold (WRN.to), Updating
on Electra Battery Materials (ELBM.v).
Stocks to Follow: McEwen Mining (MUX), Superior Gold (SGI.v), Chesapeake Gold (CKG.v),
Minera Alamos (MAI.v), Element 29 (ECU.v), Aldebaran (ALDE.v), Discovery Silver (DSV.v).
Copper Basket: Overview, Regulus Resources (REG.v), Copper Mountain (CMMC.to), Meridian
Mining (MNI.to).
Producer Basket: Overview, Kinross (KGC) (K.to).
TinyCaps Basket: Overview.
Regional Politics: Chile’s Constitutional reform faces defeat, Chile: Boric’s messaging on
mining, Argentina: Fernández and Trudeau talk mining, Peru: The beatings will continue until
morale improves, Inflation rising across South America, Colombia: Another poll calls a Fico vs
Petro run-off and Duque talks mining, Brazil: Lula maintains advantage over Bolsonaro
Market Watching: Atex Resources (ATX.v) update, Chesapeake Gold (CKG.v) 4q21 financials,
Sprott Inc buys into a Peruvian copper story, A quick note on Pure Gold (PGM.v), A quick note
on Moneta Gold (ME.to), Queen’s Road Capital (QRC.v) invests in Contango Inc (CTGO).
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
Trade heads-up
Two trades to mention at the top of the shop: One highly probable sale, one possible purchase:
Selling McEwen Mining (MUX): It’s been on the block for several weeks, the news last week
from the company seals the deal. I am selling and will probably take a minor loss on the trade.
Details in the ‘Stocks to Follow’ notes
May add Chesapeake Gold (CKG.v): This would be a small addition to a small position and
nothing to get excited about. The simple idea is to take advantage of the anomalous price drop
on low volumes last week, but only if that nice Mr. Market allows me in at the current price
deck. Details in ‘Market Watching’.
In Today’s Edition
 It’s time to pull the plug on McEwen Mining (MUX) and sell, the news last week was the
straw that breaks this particular camel’s back.
 However, the target-rich environment is still all around and the bullish thesis for the
sector under present world geopolitical and financial circumstances remains fully intact.
 In today’s main fundies section, we wrap up the closer looks at our five new Trade
Ideas stocks by considering the group’s performance to date, then catching up with
news on the two companies that we haven’t studied in detail as yet, ELBM and WRN.
Both look ready.
1

 For the second week running, The Producer Basket considers the trade potential and
set-up in Kinross (KGC) as that stock fights back from its recent woes.
 As for trades, the Top Pick Minera Alamos (MAI.v) moved well to the upside last week
on good fundies news, while the small trade in Chesapeake (CKG.v) moved in the
opposite direction for no apparent reason and may offer a nice buying window in the
days to come.
 As for Regional Politics, a whole bunch of crazy to report on this weekend. Chile
remains centre stage, but Peru and Colombia are not far behind. Plenty of other bases
touched this weekend too, let’s get on with it.
Revisiting the silver price and Red Dog Stick
For the first week in many weeks, we turn away from the geopolitical influences on metals and
the chronically hellish war. In its place, we turn to silver and an aspect of the fundamental
scene that may be turning to the favour of speculators like us. In IKN592 dated September 27th
2020, the intro to the weekly ran a note entitled “The silver price as explained by Red Dog
Stick”, a lampoon of the self-appointed market soothsayers who, at that time, were predicting
all sorts of wild and lofty silver price targets based on the most spurious of excuses (it’s difficult
even to use words like “reasons” or “analysis”). While humorous in nature, it had a serious
point to make and it seemed to go down well as (and for what it’s worth) I still get
correspondence from readers who remember and reference the note. By way of reminder,
here’s the story part of that days note (sans chart or final paragraph):
The silver price as explained by Red Dog Stick
There was once a man who declared he had worked out that the price movements of
silver were predictable. This was based on a clear and unquestionable fact, Red Dog
Stick, and the obvious implications that came from Red Dog Stick. Once his theory was
perfected, he declared in public, “The price of silver will go up because Red Dog Stick.”
Most people ignored him, but a few people heard and one or two bought on his advice.
When, the next day, silver rose sharply it wasn’t just our central figure talking about
Red Dog Stick any longer. Within a week, by simple word of mouth between a couple
of friends, a dozen people were sitting on healthy profits because A) they had heard
the man’s message about silver and Red Dog Stick, B) they had bought some silver
and C) the price of silver had indeed improved again.
At that point, there was a bit of noise being generated by Red Dog Stick. The man
who’d worked out that the infallible fact of Red Dog Stick means that silver goes up
was creating quite a following and, when silver’s move started accelerating, his next
online video went viral. For a few weeks, older hands start looking at this new Red Dog
Stick theory and some even became interested, but one fine day and just after
publishing a new video forecasting silver’s move to $100/oz thanks to Red Dog Stick,
the price of silver collapsed at market. Not an easy day for a lot of people, as there
were also margined newbies on the bandwagon by then. Many people wondered if our
new media celebrity would quietly fade into the background in a fog of excuses. But no!
He showed his face when things got rough as well, this man was no sly con artist! He
believed fervently in Red Dog Stick and was more than willing to defend Red Dog Stick
in public, as it had been proven near-infallible before other market players noticed its
success and started underhandedly manipulating the market against its true course.
The point should be clear and as this chart of silver (SLV proxy) versus gold (GLD) bullion
shows…
2

…things haven’t turned out the way wing-and-a-prayer superbullish silver gurus promised their
flocks. However, I’ve also added three numbers to the above chart to point out a few more
basic facts about the way silver operates (compared to gold):
1) Sometimes silver does this, moving higher compared to gold when market conditions
suit its narrative.
2) However sometimes silver also does this and re-traces to gold’s performance level. This
can be due to a change in the macroeconomic environment, but it’s more often due to
the pricking of false expectations placed in the future of the Jekyll& Hyde metal (as
illustrated in Red Dog Stick).
3) But there are occasions when silver also does this. For sure, it gets less market radar
and chatter at these times, but for me this is the most interesting moment in the silver
cycle. Silver can track gold quite faithfully for extended periods of time but, when it
does, it nearly always breaks upwards afterwards.
Here at The IKN Weekly need reasons for silver to move higher, not just Red Dog Stick wishful
thinking or shrill cries of how “the manipulation” cannot last forever if their predictions go awry.
Which brings us to the point of today’s intro, and there are growing reasons to believe silver
could have higher prices in the pipeline. How about this for example (8)? Bank of America
forecasting a significant demand growth for silver due to solar and auto that moves total world
demand from 2,000 metric tonnes to over 3,500 metric tonnes in the next four years:
Kitco News) - Silver prices are stuck in a wide range finding little momentum from
subdued investor interest; however, commodity analysts at Bank of America expect the
precious metals industrial demand to keep the market well supported.
In a report published Friday, the analysts said that demand from the solar power sector
and growing importance in the auto sector will be two critical factors driving silver
prices for the next three years.
The bank sees silver prices ending the year at around $32.50 an ounce as the market
sees falling supply and growing industrial demand. The long-term bullish outlook
comes as silver prices consolidate between $24 and $25 an ounce. May silver futures
last traded at $25.81 an ounce, up 0.30% on the day.
"Demand headwinds have been gradually tailing off, and silver usage in solar panels is
set to increase further as more photovoltaic (PV) is installed," the analysts said in the
report. "Importantly, out to 2025, new PV installations in GW will likely outpace any
savings from learning effects that might reduce silver loadings in panels. We assume
19t of silver per GW of capacity installed at the moment."
Looking beyond the solar sector, Bank of America expects electric vehicles to be an
essential source of industrial demand for silver. They said that each electric car uses
about 38 grams of silver, up 72% compared to conventional internal combustion
engines.
"Overlaying these figures with expected EV production volumes, we believe silver
usage could rise to 3,522t by 2025, from around 2,000t in the past decade," the
analysts said.
That projected demand growth has BofA forecasting silver at U$32.50/oz and while we can
discuss the level of demand growth, we are approaching the moment when the economies of
scale that solar has enjoyed in silver are running low. Up to now, increase panel production has
not seen a major rise in silver use due to improving technology that manages to use less and
less silver (normally thinner layers) for the same surface area of panelling. However, the law of
diminishing returns is now coming into play at the same time as the start of the exponential rise
in production, which is the right recipe for a significant increase in silver demand.
Up to now, this desk has been cool on the future prospects for silver but at the same time,
we’ve never denied the longer-term demand increase will eventually kick in. We seem to be
approaching that moment, the time when wishful thinking toward the silver market is replaced
by hard data and solid fundamental reasons to expect the metal to go higher. Whether that
happens in the near-term on the back of that promising looking price chart is unclear, but this
desk is no longer bearish or even neutral on the silver in 2022. The only question to remain is
whether silver merely matches the performance of gold, or whether it begins to offer the
leverage that the silver metal fanclub has promised to us for years.
3

Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Overview
In IKN670 we opened coverage on five companies, examples of ways to play the rapidly
changing playing field for mining stocks. After taking into account the new geopolitical scenario,
the continued rise and influence of inflation and even considering, or at least trying to consider,
what our financial overlords had planned for us we came up with Superior Gold (SGI.v),
Meridian Mining (MNO.to), Newcore Gold (NCAU.v), Electra Battery Materials (ELBM.v) and
Western Copper & Gold (WRN.to) to fit the bill. We’re now four editions on from the
introduction and here’s how they are doing:
 Superior Gold (SGI.v): +10.8%
 Meridian Mining (MNO.to): +14.8%
 Newcore Gold (NCAU.v): UNCHANGED 0.0%
 Electra Battery Materials (ELBM.v): +8.5%
 Western Copper & Gold (WRN.to): +16.2%
The moves compare to these benchmark ETFs:
 VanEck Gold Miners (GDX): +6.6%
 VanEck Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ):+2.9%
 SPDR Gold Shares (GLD): +1.2%
 Global X Copper Miners (COPX): +3.5%
From those lists, three things:
1) Aside from Newcore Gold (NCAU.v) our picks have done reasonably well, with a to-date
unweighted average for the five stocks returning +11.0%. That doesn’t mean it’s time for
garlands or laps of honour, it’s merely a good start.
2) However, the positive performance of all the ETF benchmarks, including the preference for
large-caps (GDX) over smaller producers (GDXJ) shows that we are indeed in a target-rich
environment. We’ve even seen the industrial copper miners (COPX) joining in at the same time,
something that we cannot take for granted (e.g. see The Copper Basket this week).
3) Since IKN670, we’ve run closer inspections on three of the new stocks, with one of them
becoming a personal open position as at last weekend (Superior Gold SGI.v). The process has
been useful but by the same token, I don’t want to drag heels too much on these five stocks.
The plan is to follow their progress, rather than continue to bang on the same drum
incessantly. We also have a busy reporting and earnings season in the near future with plenty
of stocks reporting on their 4q21 and 1q22 performances in the weeks ahead, therefore and to
draw a line under the close coverage of these five, today’s has updates on the two stocks that
haven’t had closer analyses to date, namely Western Copper & Gold (WRN.to) and Electra
Battery Materials (ELBM.v). The job today isn’t to generate a priced target as in the first three
analyses, rather we check out the financial backgrounds we didn’t cover in the opening reports
of IKN, then update on news from both companies (and in one case, there has been plenty).
Once done, we can draw a line under these five trade ideas and leave room for coverage of our
other open positions in the weeks to come. And if circumstances permit, these updates are
source material for any personal decision to buy shares of either WRN or ELBM in the future.
That’s more than enough intro and overview, let’s get to the 4th and 5th of our five new names,
WRN and ELBM:
Updating on Western Copper & Gold (WRN.to)
We chose Western Copper & Gold (WRN.to) for the most straightforward of reasons, namely its
potential as an M&A target this year. WRN and its Casino project in Canada’s Yukon is a well-
known project that’s been listed for over a decade, but recent developments and the fortuitous
timing of copper’s run now make it a live prospect and we even have a likely buyer in the shape
of 8% owner and strategic partner, Rio Tinto (RTZ).
4

To begin, we update and refine the corporate structure topbox using the latest figures:
Shares out: 151.451m
Options: 6.035m
Warrants: 1.5m
RSUs: 0.239m
Fully diluted shares: 159.225m
Current share price: C$2.80
Market Cap: C$424.06m
Approx cash per S/O: 20c
All prices are in US Dollars unless stated. Forex U$0.80=CAD$1
In our IKN670 overview on WRN entitled “The time is right for big Canadian copper” we
covered the benefits and advantages of a potential trade in WRN, so no need to cover all that
territory again but a quick re-cap won’t harm. The reasons offered include
 Address: The Canadian Yukon is the epitome of a low risk jurisdiction.
 Size: While on the low side in grade, Casino makes up in tonnages. If we include
inferred in the mix, Casino t boasts 10.9Bn lbs of all category copper and 21.1m oz of
all category gold and its low cash cost mine plan would make for a profitable mine, or
very profitable at today’s copper price deck.
 Access: At long last, the Casino project area is seeing a road built that connects it to
the outside world and converts theoretical project economics into reality.
 Permitting: The recent news that the neighbouring Coffee project (NEM) had received
its key environment permit speaks positively of both the region and of WRN’s likelihood
of receiving its own permits in timely fashion.
To these advantages we now add an overview of corporate financials, starting with assets and
to the left the whole assets, to the right the current assets separated out:
WRN.to: Assets per qtr
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
These days WRN capitalizes its development costs, but that’s neither here nor there at this
point. More importantly, we see the company has more than enough cash to deliver on its
current work programs and even has enough to tuck a fair portion of treasury away into
interest bearing financial products (financially
prudent, we like that). That cash came first
from the financing it ran in 4q20, then from
the 8% strategic position taken by RTZ in May
2021.
As liabilities are tiny (right), we can move
directly to the working cap position and for
illustrative purposes, we add simple forecasts
for the quarters ahead (below):
5
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4
C$m WRN.to: Current Assets per qtr
60
55
fixed 50
other current 45 St inv 40
cash 35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
source: company filings
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4
C$m
other current
St inv
cash
source: company filings
WRN.to: Liabilities per qtr
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
LT liabs
current liabs

60 WRN.to: Working Capital per qtr
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
6
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 tse22q1 tse22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
source company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
WRN is burning some cash, but it will take years
to get to the point where it needs to raise again
and that means we can rely on its current share
count to base buyout calculations.
Finally and quickly, this operating expenses chart
shows the tight nature of background burn rate
at the company (ex-drilling). WRN has always
been managed this way and a good thing too; a
more profligate management mentality would
have seen the share base blown out after over a
decade of waiting for a buyer.
2 WRN.to: Operating expenses
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4
200 WRN.to: Shares Out
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
C$m
other
share based comp
prof fees
wages & bene
G&A
IR/comm
source: WRN filings
Along with the arrival of RTZ, the other major move from WRN in 2021 was the commissioning
of its Feasibility Study in October, which is due delivered to the company and market at some
time this quarter, 2q22. The current world of delays and hiccups may require us to be patient
for an extra quarter, but the publication of the FS is the obvious catalyst for an eventual offer
on WRN. We also note that WRN hired the highly regarded Ken Engquist in January this year,
presumably to steer the company through this FS process and be on-hand to cover the
technical questions arising from suitors.
We now turn to consider a potential valuation for WRN and, in the event of a buyout offer, an
eventual price for the company. If we consider the current resource (graphic from IKN670)…
71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 tse22q1 tse22q2
source: company filings
serahs
fo
snoillim

…and limit ourselves to the M+I resource (inferred won’t make it into a FS) then strip out the
gold, silver and treasury, the current 7.6Bn lbs copper M+I prices WRN at around 4.5 US cents
per lb. That’s not as cheap as other projects but with plenty of value to add above just the M+I
copper total, neither is it a prohibitive price. When compared to the current initial capex
estimate of U$2.6Bn to build the mine, the eventual owner still has room to bid up to own the
project and an eventual ticket price of C$600m, or around C$4.00/share, is a sensible target
price. Back in IKN670 we closed by saying “At its current C$364m market cap WRN is not a
cheap stock” and now at C$424m, that’s even sharper. However, the timing and the clear
interest from world-level RTZ means the current price is also justified. As a mid-term play on
copper WRN fits nicely as the right type of story at the right time. We await the main catalyst of
the Feasibility Study this quarter, but may well own before the announcement arrives.
Updating on Electra Battery Materials (ELBM.v)
Our second focus company today has seen many changes in the few short weeks since we
opened our soft coverage. In the note “Electra Battery Materials (ELBM.v): Future Facing and
then some” from IKN670 we identified ELBM as a smart way to play the rising interest in
battery metals, as the company is fully funded to build and then put into production its Battery
Materials Park in Ontario, Canada.
We begin by updating the corporate structure topbox but in this case, we assume the pro-rata
situation and the reverse split recently announced by the company:
Shares out: 31.245m
Options: 1.05m
Warrants: 1.27m
Fully diluted shares: 33.565m
Current share price: C$5.76
Market Cap: C$179.97m
Approx cash per S/O: 10c
All prices are in US Dollars unless stated. Forex U$0.80=CAD$1
There are big changes in the above box, mainly due to the company’s decision and
announcement on April 5th (2) to qualify for listing on the US NASDAQ exchange. To that end, it
will run a 18:2 rollback to allow the stock to qualify for the minimum price more easily and offer
a “more palatable” share price to potential US investors. We’ll come back to this point in a
moment, but first and the same style as WRN here’s a rapid re-cap of positives as per our
opening coverage, we then move to news and novelties below. In IKN670 we liked ELBM for
these reasons:
 Management: CEO Trent Mell and team are second to none.
 Development: Battery Materials Park is permitted, fully financed and currently under
construction, with first stage production expected by the end of 2022 and expansion to
positive free cash flow in 2023.
 Timing: ELBM is in the right placed at the right time to benefit from the rise in “Future
Facing” metals to supply the rise in EVs. Its first focus will the hot EV metal cobalt, with
next stages looking to recycle nickel and other battery metals such as lithium.
 Iron Creek: ELBM still owns the Iron Creek cobalt project in Idaho, which could revalue
from the success of Battery Park.
At the time in IKN670, we identified two major potential downsides to ELBM and as it happens,
both have been addressed to some degree by recent newsflow. We therefore broach the
subjects by updating on both:
Execution risk: Clearly, ELBM has to deliver its manufacturing facility on-time and in budget to
7

make for a good investment at this point and, with first pilot production scheduled for Q4 of this
year they are running to a tight schedule. On March 22nd the company announced (2) it was
building, on time and on schedule. Then on April 6th ELBM announced (3) an offtake agreement
with partner Glencore that guarantees a buyer for its cobalt (and nickel, though that will come
later) until end 2024. The deal is apparently on standard market terms and while I am slightly
leery about seeing GLEN move in on ELBM even further, from what we can see on the outside
the terms look friendly and don’t tie ELBM down to a longer-term (and potentially toxic)
relationship with the big metals player. This deal, along with its previously announced deal with
Japan’s Marubeni (4) in January, have gone a long way to guaranteeing supply into the new
plant and demand for its product at the end. What’s left for ELBM to do is build the thing and
on that, we’ve been given more positive news. Then finally a video release from last week (5)
has CEO Trent Mell on site and while announcing the new off take deal, we see and hear the
build out is on schedule with the ground work now being done for the main plant deliveries,
due at the end of this quarter.
The other potential weakness identified in IKN670 was its financial structure, as the company
has taken out debt and is now dealing even more closely with Glencore. The key will be to
deliver its factory on time and on that, the latest news includes visual proof the project is on
schedule. As for the financials, first we consider corporate structure including the 4q21
numbers, as filed on SEDAR on Friday, then the potential implications of that NASDAQ listing.
APN.v: Assets, per qtr
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
The assets and liabilities charts above show the
transformation as the debt arrived, as from
3q21 ELBM is risk-bound and obliged to deliver.
Its working capital balance of C$57.23m (right)
is enough to cover the build-out and all long-
lead items are on order (ELBM has $30m in
committed payments in the next three
quarters).
However, the expanding company structure
also makes for a higher corporate burn rate
(below):
8
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4
$m APN.v: Liabilities, per qtr
80
fixed 70
other current
60 cash
50
40
30
20
10
0
source: company filings
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
LT liabs
current liabs
80 APN.v: Working Capital per qtr
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4
source company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
APN.v: Expenses breakdown
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4
C$m
other exp
Prof fees
refinery studies
expl&eval
source: company filings

When the combination of capex and operational expenses are weighed on treasury, it becomes
clear the company will need to raise some more cash at some point.
APN.v: Cash treasury per qtr
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
9
91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 tse22q1 tse22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4 tse32q1
source: company filings/IKN ests
srallod
fo
snoillim
It’s one thing to deliver a plant on time and budget, another to get to positive free cash flow
without draining treasury to zero and that’s the implication of ELBM’s financials today.
Therefore it seems logical to expect the company to go to market again and raise more capital,
which brings us back to April 6th and its news of the share consolidation taking effect tomorrow
Monday April 11th. From that comes the NASDAQ listing, which also makes sense when reading
the CEO comment from the NR:
“In conjunction with the uplisting, the Company is required to complete a share
consolidation to meet the minimum price threshold for a Nasdaq listing. The resulting
smaller share count and higher share price is more palatable to U.S. institutional
investors, which will be important for our future growth plans.”
When you list in the USA and say that US instos are important to future plans, that translates
easily: ELBM plans to sell shares to the US market. And as things stand that is beginning to look
like good timing as well as the Canadian government is now budgeting public sector cash for
the very same sector (7):
OTTAWA, April 4 (Reuters) - Canada's federal budget will include an investment of at
least C$2 billion ($1.6 billion) for a strategy to accelerate the production and
processing of critical minerals needed for the electric vehicle (EV) battery supply chain,
two senior government sources said.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's government, which is due to release its budget on
Thursday, will make the investment to ramp up the extraction of processing of critical
minerals including nickel, lithium, cobalt and magnesium, said the sources who are
familiar with the matter but were not authorized to speak on the record.
ELBM is already part of the Canadian government plan, with its co-sponsored study. This
announcement is the type of news capital markets love, nothing backstops a capital investment
like government cash. Therefore, while there’s every reason to expect ELBM will raise more
capital, perhaps $10m or $20m to see its first stage cobalt plant to positive cash flow, any raise
in an increasingly hot sub-sector and via the NASDAQ wouldn’t only be the right offer at the
right time, but in the right place.
The bottom line is that through its recent and multi-faceted newsflow, ELBM has made strides
in de-risking its project. At the same time, the market has made further moves toward the
future facing metals and Canada’s official government seal of approval will only add to the
confidence of new money entering the sector. ELBM is now building and has first mover
advantage and assuming a smooth run to first production, has the potential to build share price
momentum through the year.
So what’s stopping me from buying today? Two reasons:
1) The best gains should come once ELBM has floated on the NASDAQ and raised more
capital. In fact, I’d be disappointed if the market robs the US instos of its own level of
first-mover advantage and prices the stock high before the US listing and eventual

placement is done. Therefore, there’s no need to get involved immediately.
2) The second reason is more conceptual, ELBM isn’t really a mining stock any longer! Yes
for sure it still owns Iron Creek and yes for sure its plan is to “produce metal”, but the
fact is ELBM has morphed into a chemicals company via Battery Minerals Park, it’s not
as miner in the true sense. With one non-mining stock already held as an open position
(MENE.v), I feel it may be pushing the window too hard to own in what’s supposed to
be a service that focuses on junior miners.
However and with those said, I’m sorely tempted to buy ELBM today, especially after the
NASDAQ listing news, a smart move into the right space for this type of story. And with cobalt
doing what it’s been doing recently, any further price increase will only improve the baseline
economics of the project.
Stocks to Follow
It was a good week for the back pocket, despite having just four winners from the 19 open
positions. That’s because Top Pick and personal largest position Minera Alamos (MAI.v) finally
decided to catch a bid on Friday rose by 13.1% and that made all the difference. Along with
MAI, the brand new long in Superior Gold (SGI.v up 11.7%) started brightly and alongside
those, its notable that the only other winners were “non mining” stocks, namely Electra
(ELMB.v) and Mene (MENE.v). So before we get to the bad news, we round off by noting that
Element 29 (ECU.v) and Altiplano (APN.v) remained unchanged on the week.
Now for the bad news but it said to be said, the 14 losers (not listing them all) weren’t as
onerous as the raw number implies and most drops were small in size, a penny or a percentage
point. The exceptions were the percentage losses in Chesapeake Gold (CKG.v down 10.2%),
Discovery Silver (DSV.v down 8.3%) and at a pinch Western Copper (WRN.to down 5.1%).
Please note: As SGI is both one of the “Five Trade Ideas” and as from last weekend also a
Recommended Stock and personal open trade, it’s listed twice this weekend (and slightly
different base prices, too). That’s because I’m not sure how to list it going forward and gave up
trying to decide. Suggestions welcomed.
We’re now into our third week of the new Stocks to Follow presentation table and SGI’s double
entry aside, hopefully used to the new format (these prompts won’t last forever). We have 19
open positions, one less than our self-imposed maximum, of which eight are in positive
territory, eight are negative and no fewer than three are unchanged on cost entry basis.
10

company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.69 228.6% $1.14 tgt, #1 idea on FY22 dev
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v STR BUY C$0.83 22-Apr-18 C$0.74 -10.8% $1.30 tgt May22 permit catalyst
RECOMMENDED STOCKS
Amerigo Res ARG.to STR BUY C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.79 31.6% $2..40 tgt on FY22 guidance
Discovery Silver DSV.v STR BUY C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.76 -0.6% Best Ag play, 1st tgt $2.75
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v BUY C$0.275 25-Apr-21 C$0.265 -3.6% Now drilling. Easy hold
Superior Gold SGI.v BUY C$0.96 3-Apr-22 C$1.05 9.4% IKN670 idea, now active trade
Element 29 ECU.v BUY C$0.58 6-Mar-22 C$0.58 0.0% Cu exploreco w/ 2 Peru assets
SPECULATIVE TRADES
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v SPEC BUY C$3.26 20-Feb-22 C$3.25 -0.3% "Leverage to gold" started well
McEwen Mining MUX SELLING U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.815 -8.4% Closing before damage done
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v SPEC BUY C$0.72 16-May-21 C$0.88 22.2% Assay catalyst in Q1 and Q2
Strategic Metals SMD.v BUY C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.40 -4.8% Canada land bet+Zn in FY22
Palamina Corp PA.v SPEC BUY C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.165 -44.1% Au expl in S.Peru
Altiplano Metals APN.v SPEC BUY C$0.31 17-Sep-21 C$0.32 3.2% Cheap entry, plan on track.
Minera IRL MIRL.cse hold C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.08 -59.0% CEO change will move stock
FIVE TRADE IDEAS FROM IKN670, March 2022 (yellow not owned, blue owned)
Meridian Mining MNO.v BUY C$0.88 20-Mar-22 C$1.01 14.8% tracking IKN670 idea
Superior Gold SGI.v BUY C$0.95 20-Mar-22 C$1.05 10.5% tracking IKN670 idea
Newcore Gold NCAU.v BUY C$0.51 20-Mar-22 C$0.51 0.0% tracking IKN670 idea
Electra Battery ELBM.v BUY C$0.295 20-Mar-22 C$0.32 8.5% tracking IKN670 idea
Western Copper WRN.to BUY C$2.41 20-Mar-22 C$2.80 16.2% tracking IKN670 idea
LONG-TERM NON-MINING HOLD
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.67 6-Dec-20 C$0.67 0.0% LT bet, adding slowly
CLOSED TRADES IN 2022 date closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
2015 to 2021 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for some notes on some of our covered stocks, but keeping it very brief this weekend.
McEwen Mining (MUX): SELLING: It’s been on the chopping block for the last few weeks,
so this decision shouldn’t come as much of a surprise. Even less after the news out of MUX last
week entitled (8), “McEwen Mining Amends Term Loan Facility and Raises Additional $15 Million
from Rob McEwen”, that saw the stock trade
under 80c for the good part of two days
before buyers came for the stock on Friday. If
lucky (and that’s what it will feel like at this
point), I’ll escape with a minimal loss and
more damage to the ego than the back
pocket.
Last week’s NR contained three pieces of news
on the corporate finances, plus some
information on operations. We start with the
news:
1) Rob McEwen is lending his company U$15m
in what is framed as a bridge-type loan on
11

reasonable terms (8% interest) in order to get the company over a liquidity crunch moment.
2) Along with McEwen, creditors Sprott have agreed to boot forward principal payback on its
current $50m loan. Those payments of $2m per month were due to begin in August this year,
but are now scheduled to begin in August 2023. In return for the easing of terms, Sprott gets
$500k worth of MUX shares (588k papers approx), while Rob McEwen has passed on receiving
bonus shares (and a good job too, there would have been riots).
3) Some small but interesting details change o the covenant for the loan. Firstly, McEwen
Copper is no longer part of the asset collateral package. Secondly, minimum consolidated
working capital at MUX has been dropped to $5m for the moment, with the minimum level
going back to $7m next year.
Taken together, these measures are designed to get MUX over what could have been a cash
crunch under other circumstances. We already know Chief Owner (rolls eyes) Rob McEwen is
loathe to dilution via another placement, so these moves allow MUX to get over what it says is
a near-term problem and get back to profitability later this year. It also apparently means the
company can move forward with its funding of the proposed spin-out of McEwen Copper as it
removes a lien on the assets that may otherwise become problematic. So with news done, we
move to the CEO comment and parse the paragraph:
“Reduced cash flow from operations in Q1 has placed McEwen Mining in a challenging
position which we needed to overcome. I have invested a further $15 million by way of
an unsecured Promissory Note so that we can implement corrective action. It was also
beneficial to extend the maturity of our Term Loan to enable us to invest in production
growth and mine life extensions before debt retirement.
That’s Rob McEwen’s version of the solid news for the NR, as noted above; MUX had cash flow
issues and has made its moves to remedy the near-term without diluting the share base
(much…as Sprott will certainly sell its 588k shares in to the open market).
Results from operations are expected to improve starting with the current quarter and
resume the positive trend we experienced during 2021.
Translation, Q1 sucked. The next line tells us why:
Gold Bar achieved our production target in Q1 and Los Azules has made some
important advances,” said Rob McEwen, Chairman and Chief Owner.
This is the line that sealed the fate of my investment in MUX. While Los Azules has advanced
via the start of drilling, contracting of consultants, a new manager, work to start the PFs
process etc, there’s nothing we didn’t know already. Seeing this as the only “positive” added to
something MUX should have done anyway, i.e. achieve target in Q1, means it has nothing to
say. We then get the reasons/excuses:
“The deviation from our financial forecast for Q1 was caused by lower production at
the Fox Complex and at San José. Loss of manpower due to COVID-19 was a
significant factor at both mines. Very cold weather and equipment failures also
occurred at the Fox mill.”
Again, we knew about San José’s (MSC) Covid issues and that its 1q22 production would be
low, however we also need to remember MSC’s place in the MUX hierarchy as a 49% minority
holding of a mine from which the company receives a dividend (or around $2.3m/qtr recently).
If MSC has a good or bad quarter isn’t a biggie in the great scheme as it’s not a financial
burden, aside from that dividend which, while useful cash, isn’t a game-changer over any given
quarter.
Which means the big problem is at Fox Complex and that’s bad news. First let’s state for the
record, at this stage in the game blaming the weather is a red flag in and of itself (cold in
Canada in winter….who knew?). Now for the issue and by way of reminder, here’s our tracking
chart for Fox Complex production including our estimates for 2022 quarters, which assumed the
grade improvements promised by the access to the new Froome deposit would bump up
production to a flat average of 11,000 oz Au/qtr for this year. That’s obviously not the case any
12

longer, at least for Q1 and potentially Q2 as well:
Fox Complex: Prod and Sales in AuEq, per qtr
13
4.21
5.51
8.9
2.31
2.7
7.21
0.8 7.9 6.8
6.2
6.5
0.8
3.5
9.6 4.8 2.9
0.11
0.11 0.11 0.11
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 tse22q1 tse22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
AuEq Koz
Prod
Sold
source: MUX filings
As for the hole created by Fox in 1q22, it has to be enough to put its expansion and drilling
plans under cash pressure and, with AISC coming in at U$1,760/oz in 4q21, the implication is
that of a mine which made a mine site loss.
Fox Complex: AISC, per qtr
1644 1560 1760 1339 1439 1423
934 1088
2333
U$/oz
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
4q19 1q20 2q20 3q20 4q20 1q21 2q21 3q21 4q21
source: MUX filings
That’s going to be all about production ounces compared to fixed costs and we could see MUX
return perhaps 9,000 oz production at over U$2,000/oz AISC, which would be a large bucket of
cold water when announced. And for the working capital issue…
MUX: Working Capital per qtr
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4
$m
source company filings/IKN ests
…we cast our minds back to 4q20 and 3q19, when the company did the same thing and
announced a sudden drain of cash, only to bolster treasury with a series of placements. Seeing
the covenant on the loan drop to $5m gives an idea of how low liquidity might go before things
get better and event there, we’re relying on MUX delivering on “Results from operations are
expected to improve starting with the current quarter…”, which is hardly a guarantee these
days. All this also comes with the backdrop of the NYSE listing review, in which MUX has under
end Q2 to improve its share price to above U$1.00 for a consecutive period of days. We know
Rob McEwen isn’t going to give up that listing because he said so on the FY21 ConfCall, but one
of the solutions he mentioned was to run a reverse split and that’s now looking the likelier
option.
To the upside and to find the silver lining, the removal of the lien on McEwen Copper may mean

we are about to get the news of the second round of “$20m to $40m” funding of that entity,
which may provide a temporary share price boost. However, if it comes before I sell it’s now
pure luck, as I simply do not want to be holding MUX shares into its 1q22 production report or
eventual earnings release. MUX normally announced production numbers in week two or three
after quarter end and that means either this week or next, therefore I’m going to realize my
small loss on this trade in the week ahead, close out and walk away. What started as my idea
of the “turnaround story of 2022” has finished as a failed trade and the reason is simple; MUX
has not delivered on its promises for improvement at its operations, nor has it delivered the
financing and rhythm of progress it advertised for Los Azules. I’m getting out before any real
damage is done to my back pocket but while doing so, remind readers of my ´poor track record
in selling this stock just before it rallies.
Superior Gold (SGI.v): POSITION OPENED. That feeling when you buy too many and they
go down, or buy too few and they go up. I took a
reasonable but still modest starter position on the
trade early week, then watched as SGI moved
higher, broke the Loonie line and then refused to
look back. It’s nice to have picked a winner against
the tide of last week, however hindsight has me
kicking myself slightly, ever-so slightly, for not
buying a bigger first slice.
But those are my problems, what we have on the
table above is a new position that’s started on the
right side of the line. No complaints and we now
wait to see what SGI at Plutonic can deliver for
1q22 production. That NR should be out this week,
however and on inquiry, the resource update may not show until late April or even early May.
Chesapeake Gold (CKG.v): MAY ADD A FEW. The biggest loser of the week, CGK dropped
by 10.2% on low volumes and failed to rebound with the others on Thursday and Friday. I’ll be
honest, I didn’t spot to opportunity on Friday and may well have added a few to this small
position at this price. It looks like a window of opportunity and as such, if low prices continue in
the days ahead I will probably take the opportunity to add a few more.
Please see ‘Market Watching’ for more on CGK, as the company also filed its 2021 annuals on
Friday evening, post bell.
Minera Alamos (MAI.v): We got a somewhat overdue but nicely comprehensive NR out of
MAI on Thursday April 7th (9) with plenty of information on several fronts to update on progress
at Santana and while the company still hasn’t declared commercial production, there was more
than enough good news contained to move the stock price up 10.5% that day on decent
volume. Your list of things:
 Month-on Month production numbers are incremental
 Tonnage placed on pad are improving under the improved grade cut-off regime
 Costs are under control, reagent use is low and gold recoveries are as expected
 MAI now cash flow breakeven at a corporate level (not just the mine)
 The company is happy with commissioning progress at the main Nicho zone
 MAI is now dedicating cash to exploration of other zones at Santana
Along with the main themes, the NR also contained several points to show how MAI was
working through the normal teething problems, ironing out its mine plan and adding efficiency.
Examples include how explosives storage on-site has improved blasting efficiency and allowed
MAI to improve fragmentation. This, in turn, allows more Run of Mine (RoM) mineralization on
pad without crushing and that, on turn, plays into the new company regime of a higher cut for
RoM material. The company has changed its pad sequencing, a change that will allow more
14

tonnes per day laid. Another improvement coming soon is an on-site lab, that can handle
confirmation drill results and will improve mine planning. These and other measures are typical
in the first stages of a heap leach operation and it’s good to get this type of in-running
commentary, as once such wrinkles are ironed out heapleachers tend to run on rails (and with
CEO Koningen, we have an expert at the helm).
However, the line that caught the market’s attention was this, from CEO Darren Koningen.
“…the ramp-up has advanced to the point where gold production for the quarter is sufficient for
the Company to be cash-flow neutral at the corporate level.” That seems to be the indication
the market was waiting for. We were also told costs were in-line and the announced month-
over-month production increments…
 January 890oz
 February 1,130oz
 March 1,370oz
…give a clear indication of how close we are to commercial production (and instos qualifying for
ownership). While it’s tough to give an exact number for “Santana Annual Production”, much
will depend on how and when the operation expands and if the mine goes to 50k oz/year I
wouldn’t bat an eyelid, from the getgo this desk as based its average annual target production
at around 35,000oz per year. We can round that to 3,000oz/month, so once we get to
2,000oz/month MAI will have no choice but to declare itself commercial. Therefore, expect the
news this quarter, perhaps at the end of it but
there’s little doubt that we’re now close.
The NR was well received on Thursday and the
stock rallied from the bottom of its recent trading
range, but the real fun happened on Friday
(right). This is the Canadian MAI.v ticker and that
1.5m volume accompanying the mini-breakout
Friday was most welcome, but it’s only half the
story as the OTC MAIFF ticker in The USA also did
1.6m shares (and change). In other words, a
powerful breakout at the right time and backed by
the type of volume last seen at the back end of
Jabba’s selling spree. More, please.
Element 29 (ECU.v): Once again ECU.v was easy to buy and there was plenty of 56c and 57c
shares available before it rallied into the close Friday and painted the tape at 58c, unchanged
on the week. We await real news from this under-the-radar copper opportunity and that will be
its first drill results out of Flor de Cobre. After that, we’ll get to hear and see how newly-
appointed CEO Steve Stakiw handles the company and his vision for the rest of the year.
Aldebaran (ALDE.v): A similar story to ECU last week, with ALDE easy to buy as we await its
drill numbers. The difference here is that we know ALDE needs to finance at some point soon,
whereas ECU has the cash it needs for all its 2022 plans.
We’ve watched ALDE come off its $1.00+ prices in the last few weeks and while that’s
obviously not ideal, a glance at the Regulus Resources (REG.v) chart in The Copper Basket
below will remind readers of the way these Black/Heather explorecos can get ramped into and
around news, with sharp price increases on newly-arrived volume part of their rhythm. So
there’s no panic and no rush to get out, more a question of waiting to see how the company
plays its hand. Holding.
Discovery Silver (DSV.v): Once again, DSV shows with red ink on the above table (by a
penny, grrr) as the volatility in both this and in its silver sub-sector continues to throw the stock
around.
15

The Copper Basket
After fourteen weeks of 2022, The Copper Basket shows a loss of 5.86% level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/22 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Copper Mtn CMMC.to 3.42 210.166 758.70 3.61 5.6%
2 Western Copper WRN.to 2.00 151.451 424.06 2.80 40.0%
3 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.77 88.028 357.39 4.06 7.7%
4 Oroco Res OCO.v 2.04 203.4 345.78 1.70 -16.7%
5 Nevada Copper NCU.to 0.71 448.437 287.00 0.64 -9.9%
6 Meridian Min MNO.v 1.18 153.735 155.27 1.01 -14.4%
7 Hot Chili HCH.v 1.53 109.223 143.08 1.31 -14.4%
8 Regulus Res. REG.v 1.06 101.845 120.18 1.18 11.3%
9 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.84 114.495 100.76 0.88 4.8%
10 C3 Metals CCCM.v 0.16 645.379 61.31 0.095 -40.6%
11 Kutcho Copper KC.v 0.88 103.94 60.29 0.58 -34.1%
12 Doré Copper DCMC.v 0.79 66.123 51.58 0.78 -1.3%
13 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.58 79.24 45.96 0.58 0.0%
14 QC Copper QCCU.v 0.34 129.06 34.20 0.265 -22.1%
15 Coast Copper COCO.v 0.13 41.335 5.17 0.125 -3.8%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg -5.86%
As I compiled the Friday closing numbers and The Copper Basket 2022, weekly evolution
4%
added them to the Excel the negative week for The
2%
Copper Basket was a bit of a head-scratcher, as
0%
was the consistent nature of the losers. Of our 15
-2%
stocks, just one returned a week-over-week win
-4%
(NCU.to) and two others remained unchanged
(ECU.v, COCO.v) and that means 12 losers (not -6%
listing them, they are “the others”). But it wasn’t -8%
just that, it’s also uniform nature of the losses with -10%
no 10%+ losers and most drops clustered around
the 2% to 5% range. The whole complex seemed
to move as one, which is rare in the junior world
and particularly when considering The Copper
Basket deliberately covers stocks from $500m+ to
under $10m.
The best answer I got comes from this ten-day
chart of the larger copper producers ETF (COPX)
set against GDX and the S&P500 (right). Here we
see how the copper stocks moved up with other
miners two Fridays ago, held the line on Monday
but, when the broad markets began to retreat they
dragged the industrial metals with them , leaving
PM stocks to rally solo on Friday. That’s not a great
signal for the state of the world economy and
smacks once again of stagflation, but it’s a small sample and there’s no rushing to judgment on
this. Not today, at least.
Here’s why it was a puzzle, as copper-the-metal did make a rise/fall spike but nobody could sya
it suddenly went out of fashion afterwards, plenty of bids Friday and all around a new wave of
analysis reports that called the metal higher in the near future (see below).
16
ts1naJ ht9naJ ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6bef ht31 ht02 ht72 ht6raM ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3rpa ht01
source: IKN calcs

This longer-term chart of the same May 2022 Comex contract (HGK22) makes the point more
clearly, aside from the big price spike on the geopolitical upheaval of the invasion, copper has
been a steady and positive trade for quite a while, this constructive price chart didn’t change
last week:
What’s more, a deeper look into the Comex contracts shows backwardation is back (as it were).
At Friday’s close of play, we had the following reads (all in U$/lb) in spot and the six most liquid
futures contracts:
 Spot Cu (HGY00): $4.695
 HGK22 (May’22): $4.7295
 HGN22 (July’22): $4.7415
 HGU22 (Sep’22): $4.7415
 HGZ22 (Dec’22): $4.7415
That’s the pattern of a market worried about supply. Indeed as far out as December 2023,
people were paying over U$4.71/lb for their copper. Moving to the main near-term influence,
the growing story of the Shanghai Covid lockdown (drone photos of deserted urban freeways
available on Google Images) is a potential bottleneck to standard supply (10):
Demand plummeted further since strict lockdown measures were implemented in
Shanghai as sellers faced additional transport hurdles in withdrawing or moving stocks
across cities.
"The increased time and effort required for testing is causing truck drivers to avoid
Shanghai for now," a Chinese trader said.
Market sources added that it was unlikely for demand to pick up until Shanghai
emerges from its lockdown as it is home to many key warehouses due to its role as a
financial hub.
From a macroeconomic perspective, the ongoing COVID lockdowns would also have a
significant impact on China's economy, which generally leads to weaker copper
consumption.
17

All this makes a slowdown in April copper imports highly likely, with lockdown
measures and the Russia-Ukraine conflict as key factors to keep an eye on.
This desk doesn’t worry too much about the effects of the Shanghai lockdown on copper for the
same reasons that strikes at La Escondida don’t affect copper prices much, despite headline
writers who’d like it to be so. Instead the longer-term supply/demand dynamic will always
supersede temporary road bumps and for that, we move to the main macro market comment
for this weekend. We’re back wit the uber-bullish Vampire Squid and while we know its main
house proponent Nicholas Snowden is fully bullish on the prospects of copper, his note to
clients was still noteworthy as it saw him use the increasingly glaring evidence of inventory
data. The note entitled “Copper: Sleepwalking towards a stockout” picked up plenty of metals
media comment and here’s mining dot com’s version (11). It include a couple of quotes, notes
GS now expects a deeper supply deficit both this year and in years to come and mentions his
12-month U$13,000/tonne (U$5.90/lb) target price. To that we can add (from the note itself)
Snowden’s 3-month and 6-month stage targets of U$11,500/t (U$5.22/lb) and U$12,000/t
(U$5.44/lb) respectively, but the real money line for this desk was at the top of the page and
his first line of script:
“For the first time in a decade, global exchange copper stocks fell through March
instead of rising during what is this metal’s seasonal surplus phase.”
Exactly, and the point this desk has been making for weeks. From that came the title, because
he also notes that the market hasn’t picked up on the dwindling supply-of-last-report and once
it’s gone (or severely depleted) the buying will really begin. And for the record, I have no issue
whatsoever with his target prices. Staying on the subject, it’s time to dial up our weekly look at
copper inventories, with data as ever from Cochilco:
 Though seasonally modest at just 14,203 metric tonnes (mt), world copper stocks
managed to add last week and close at an aggregate total of 268,731mt. As GS points
out, it’s still drum-tight and as we delve into the three sets of numbers, the indicators
remain strongly bullish.
 The SHFE saw 3,460mt of inflow, but the fact that the whole Shanghai business and
port district has been closed down due to its Covid outbreak may mean the total is
more about the fact nobody could access and remove physical stock. The total this
weekend is 96,581mt, still under 100kmt and still a large red flag on the near-term
future of market supply.
 This week the LME data took over as the lead bullish indicator. While LME stocks rose
by 9.800mt on the week, mostly thanks to copper arriving at its South Korea (5,850mt),
Singapore (1,000mt) and Taiwan (3,750mt), metal under cancelled warrant shot higher
from around 23kmt to around 47kmt, indicating a net negative was about to happen.
This weekend’s total is 103,775mt and should be a lot higher.
 The Comex completed the trifecta of gains, adding a modest 943mt on the week and
closing at 68,375mt.
Here’s the dedicated SHFE chart and after last weekend’s chartfest, we go with the standard
visual only. Whichever way you cut it, stocks won’t last 2022 if they deplete from this level.
Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2014 to date
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
18 0
31'13ceD dr32 ht02 ht51 ht01 ht5tco ht03 ht52 dn22 ht71 ht21 ht6pes ts1von 102ht72ced ts12 ht71 ht21 ht7guA dn2tcO ht4ceD ht92 ht62 ts12 ht61 ht01 7102
ht5von
ts13 ht52 dn22 ht42 ht91 ht41 ht9 9102
dr3bef
ts13 ht62 ts12 ht51 ht01 0202ht5naj 0202ts1ram ht62 ts12 ht61 ht11 0202ht6ced ts13 ht82 dr32 ht81 ht21 ht7 2202dn2naj ht72
Mt Cu
|
source: Cochilco

Now for notes on a couple of our basket stocks:
Regulus Resources (REG.v): On Wednesday April 6th REG reported the only hole labelled
“21” and while certainly a worthy result, it was not the barnstorming hole the team or its fan
club were hoping for (12). Here’s the assays table and…
…for the most part, the hole returned the expected grades of copper from the skarn and
quartzite zones that make up the bulk of the AntaKori resource tonnage, however the two
zones of breccia came in with strong numbers for copper and CuEq (as well as Arsenic). I’ve
put a red ring around the eye-catching interval of 50.45m grading 1.83% Cu (2.64% CuEq) and
while the bottom of the hole returned similar numbers, at some point the rock in a valley
setting doesn’t make it into an eventual pit shell (there’s more than one reason they only go
down so far). The sections map accompanying the NR (below) shows how the hole went
through several rock types (as usual) and made for difficult drilling conditions (as usual), as wll
as a convenient new interpretation of the porphyry intrusion which may or may not be true, but
there’s no reason to suppose it’s a figment of the imagination (the geols will have a better idea
of orientation than us from close examination of the core).
So, a good hole but not the barnstormer to live up to the pre-announcement hype, as seen in
the stock price performance:
19

Somebody or bodies were keen to own REG first thing Monday morning and may have heard
from somewhere that the drill assays were about to drop. The elevated prices lasted through
Tuesday and may have been due to social media rah-rah, we are led to understand. This seems
to be how this IR department prefers to roll and so be it, it’s 2022 and I’m old after all. And
while on the subject, a quick reminder that even if REG hits unbroken 1% chalcopyrite in
porphyry over a kilometre, your author will not re-take a position in this company. The drilling
and underground exploration of AntaKori has always been promising and may well continue to
deliver promising results, but drilling is only one aspect of this story and not where the red flags
lay. The major issue is the ownership structure of the region and the way jn which
Buenaventura is absolute boss of what goes on in the zone (not matter what fantasy others
may have regarding Gold Fields (GFI)).
Copper Mountain (CMMC.to): A brief update from last weekend’s note to mention that
CMMC has changed its 1q22 filing from April 25th to April 26th, due to an apparent clash of dates
with a market close day in Australia. Good to know CMMC cares about the Oz market enough to
accommodate its holiday dates. As for trading, CMMC was soft and easy to buy all week
The decision to sell the second half of my CMMC trade in February has turned out to be the
right one. Unfortunately, not all my judgment calls on trades work out this well…
Meridian Mining (MNI.to): Meridian is now a Dot Tee Oh, its approval to move the to
Toronto big board came through and it now gets to play in the big pool. That’s an advantage
for a company looking to attract larger insto money.
The Producer Basket
After fourteen weeks of 2022, the Producer Basket shows a gain of 24.49% to level stakes:
20

company ticker price 1/1/22 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 62.02 797.44 65.49 82.12 32.4%
2 Barrick GOLD 19.00 1779 45.20 25.41 33.7%
3 Franco-Nevada FNV 138.29 191.192 31.81 166.36 20.3%
4 Agnico Eagle AEM 53.14 454.71 29.62 65.13 22.6%
5 Wheaton PM WPM 42.93 450.3 22.38 49.70 15.8%
6 Gold Fields GFI 10.99 887.72 13.65 15.38 39.9%
7 Kinross Gold KGC 5.81 1296.5 8.05 6.21 6.9%
8 B2Gold BTG 3.93 1055.6 4.91 4.65 18.3%
9 Alamos Gold AGI 7.69 392.503 3.41 8.68 12.9%
10 Sandstorm SAND 6.20 191.4 1.69 8.81 42.1%
All prices and stock quotes in U$ Port. avg 24.49%
The GDX benchmark moved up 0.45% on the week, beaten by our list but more interestingly,
also beaten by the main gold bullion ETF (GLD up 1.1%) despite the rally in PM stocks on
Friday. The story of the week was, therefore, one of Risk Off as the Fed warned once again of
inflation fears but the way in which PM stocks shook off the warnings was another signal of the
underlying strength in the sector at the moment.
As for our list, we had seven week-over-week winners (GOLD, FNV, AEM, WPM, KGC, AGI) and
three losers (NEM, GFI, BTG) and notably, two of the three losers are the recent high-flyers
Newmont and Gold Fields; perhaps an extra dose of profit-taking in those, compared to peers.
As for the winners, a cheer for Kinross (KGC up 6.0%) which out-performed all-comers on the
week and for the second weekend running, is our main focus of attention in the segment.
The 2022 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
30% comparative to GDX control
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
Kinross Gold (KGC) redux
The news is coming thick and fast from Special K at the moment, what with all the fun in Q1
and its closure of the GBR deal, its bad luck on Russia exposure at Kupol, its new U$1Bn credit
line and late in the quarter, the announcement of its intention to sell Kupol and its other Russia
assets. So a fun quarter but if anything, Special K has upped the newsflow cadence this quarter
as, with just one week of 2q22, your list is as follows:
 April 5th: K announces (13) the sale of Kupol etc to Highland Gold for a total of U$680m in
cash. The payments are staged, with U$100m this year, U$150m next and continued annual
payments through 2027, so there are some strings attached but K can put this on its
balance sheet, all right. Overall a good deal and one that cauterizes its geopolitical
weakness. It’s also some U$250m higher than the carry for Kupol, so it’s balance sheet
accretive.
 April 6th: Asante Gold announces (14) it has entered into an exclusivity agreement with
Kinross for its Chirano mine in Ghana, which lays South of Asante’s Bibiani development
project (and of course North of Newcore (NCAU.v) at Enchi, an object of this publication’s
21
ts1naJ ht9naJ ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6bef ht31 ht02 ht72 ht6ram ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3rpa ht01
The 2022 Producer Basket: Percentage difference
between GDX benchmark & basket (negative = IKN ahead) 6.0%
5.0%
4.0% ikn
gdx control
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
source: NYSE, IKN Calcs ts1naJ ht9naJ ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6bef ht31 ht02 ht72 ht6ram ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3rpa ht01
source: IKN calcs, NYSE data

current affection). While K was far tighter-lipped about any deal and told Northern Miner,
“While Kinross is in confidential discussions with Asante, there is no guarantee a deal will be
reached”, any deal would make all the sense in the world for Kinross as it pivots to
accommodate its new reality.
 April 7th: K updates on its Great Bear (ex-GBR) acquisition and its plans for Dixie and
surroundings (15). They include a 10 rig, 200,000m drill program for 2022 which aims to
deliver a maiden resource estimate (MRE) in the inferred category as part of its 2022 year-
end results, which gives them 10 months or so. Its 2022 budget is U$60m for the apparent
new name for the project, “Great Bear” (logical enough) and then they will move to start a
PFS study in 2023 (which is when the large-scale infill drilling will begin). The market also
seemed to appreciate the news of how the company has retained many of the local GBR
team and overall, had “hit the ground running at the project” in the words of CEO Rollinson.
 April 8th: At least the last news of the week was workaday, with K announcing its date for
1q22 financials as post-close May 10th, with the ConfCall the next morning (16).
All in all, a veritable flurry of NRs the other difference between the start of 2q22 and the first
quarter of the year is the market reception for the stock and its news:
This desk sees two reasons to be cheerful about Kinross and its recent news. Firstly and most
obviously, the deal to sell Kupol to the Russian-based Highland Gold makes sense from the
political and financial angle. It’s true the company benefits less from the staged payment aspect
of the deal, but it improves its balance sheet greatly and its new credit facility means there’s no
cash crunch on the horizon anyway, so as long as K can cover its development costs without
feeling the pinch the deal works in its current form. Secondly, word of advanced talks to sell
Chirano to the highest bidder, Asante or other, also makes lot of sense for the same reasons.
Chirano is still a good mid-level producer but since going underground, costs have risen at the
mine and the best and most profitable ounces have already gone. But the real second reason to
be cheerful is that a sale of Chirano and a sale of Kupol is exactly what you’d want from a
company cleaning itself up for purchase from a larger company. Chirano would not be attractive
to a Barrick (or other), unlike all the other assets held by Kinross and for that, a deal on
Chirano makes K a better M&A target.
That thought brings us back to the argument of last week, therefore let’s précis it by stating
once again that second-guessing M&A is a trappy game at best (often a mug’s game) and
shouldn’t be your main reason to buy or hold K today. As things stand, I consider Kinross as a
possible M&A target for Barrick (or other), no more no less and if I had great conviction, I
wouldn’t just be writing about the subject, I’d also be buying shares. However, Kinross and its
recent newsflow has undoubtedly been positive for its corporate financials, after all it was just
five weeks ago when Mining FinTwit Financial Experts* claimed Kinross was in financial trouble
(and this desk refuted the silliness (17)). Therefore, we wrap up this second long-ish note in as
many weeks on Kinross with the six-month comparative chart with GDX:
22

Nobody should expect Special K to make up all that gap, but there’s obviously room for this
laggard to rally further.
*Oxymoron
The TinyCaps List
After fourteen weeks of 2022, the TinyCaps show a gain of 6.94% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/22 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Aurelius Min AUL.v 0.24 37.134 11.88 0.32 33.3%
Golden Pursuit GDP.v 0.13 34.638 4.85 0.14 7.7%
Infield Min INFD.v 0.06 48.276 2.17 0.045 -25.0%
Kingfisher Met KFR.v 0.30 84.57 17.34 0.205 -31.7%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.12 57.296 8.02 0.14 16.7%
Manitou Gold MTU.v 0.06 344.47 20.67 0.06 0.0%
Melkior Res MKR.v 0.295 24.011 6.60 0.275 -6.8%
Precipitate Gold PRG.v 0.105 129.322 16.17 0.125 19.0%
Signature Res SGU.v 0.07 238.4 23.84 0.10 42.9%
Winshear Gold WINS.v 0.08 61.585 5.54 0.09 12.5%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 6.94%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $20m. They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a
little and allowed sub-U$20m market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, but it was a particularly depressing exercise to trawl through the whole of the TSXV and find companies
that are small enough, but with life in them. The vast majority of sub-$20m stocks are broken stocks, either
traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2020. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
The microcaps remain quiet and our bunch of ten
14% TinyCaps, 2022 weekly tracker
returned a mix of small moves. There were four
12%
weekly winners (AUL.v, KFR.v, LMS.v, MKR.v),
10%
four were UNCH (INFD.v, MTU.v, PRG.v, WINX.v)
8%
and two were losers (GDP.v, SGU.v) and of
6%
those, only one managed to move by double
4%
figure percentages in either direction, namely
2%
Aurelius (AUL.v up 10.3%).
0%
23 -2%
dn2naJ ht9
naJ
ht61naJ dr32 ht03 ht6bef ht31 ht02 ht72 ht6ram ht31 ht02 ht72 dr3rpa ht01
source: IKN calcs, TSX data

No notes on basket stocks this weekend, as nothing stands out.
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future
I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
Chile’s Constitutional reform faces defeat
It was a pleasant surprise to see this Reuters note appear in an English language version on
Tuesday (18), as it saves me time. There was no need to do a translation:
SANTIAGO, April 4 (Reuters) - Chilean voters are cooling on a planned new
constitution to replace the current Augusto Pinochet-era text, opinion polls on Monday
showed, with those opposing the redraft surpassing those who plan to approve it for
the first time.
A survey by pollster Cadem shows 46% of respondents would vote against the new
text, which is still being drafted by an elected assembly and will face a nationwide
referendum this year. That was 13 percentage points higher than in late January.
Support meanwhile has dropped from 56% to just 40% now, with a sharp recent
decline due to voters losing confidence in the process and controversial planned
changes to property rights, the structure of Congress and pension funds.
The rising ambivalence toward Constitutional reform is now a clear trend in Chile and the
likelihood of deep change is dropping fast. Please note that the subject of mining doesn’t figure
among the main concerns of rank and file Chileans regarding the constitutional reform process.
The note continued by citing a second poll that points to the same result and also contains this
graphic of the development of the CADEM polls this year:
Last week also brought confirmation of the final dates for this process, with the draft
Constitution required on President Boric’s desk by July 5th and the referendum vote for the
country set for Sunday, September 4th (19). The vote will be obligatory for all Chileans 18 years
or over and will be decided on a simple majority of valid votes (i.e. votes left blank or spoiled
will not count). The question on the ballot paper will be a simple “Do you approve the text of
the New Constitution proponed by the Constitucional Convention? (¿Aprueba usted el texto de
Nueva Constitución propuesto por la Convención Constitucional?) and under the question, the
options “Approve” and “Reject”.
Chile: Boric’s messaging on mining
The new Boric admin is beginning to roll out its policies toward mining and here are a couple of
snippets to illustrate. First the good one, in which President Boric his very self mentioned the
industry in public for the first time. The context was international and he made this comment
(translated) while on State visit to Argentina (it was diplomatically smart to make Argentina his
first foreign visit (20)):
24

”Yesterday I spoke with the governor of Mendoza, and he told me of the
experience they have had regarding the mining (sector), where they have
seen very strong protests and haven’t manage to find a solution, the same as
in Chubut. We are also in a process of discussion regarding our development
model, and we also need to find this balance. This debate should involve all
sectors of society and for this, it’s not good enough to do it inside our own
nation states. If the Andean Cordillera unites us more than separates us and
has similar materials (minerals) on either side. That we work with better
collaboration in this is tremendously important.”
This is in-line with his political position of growing the mining industry, but not at any cost and
always with consent. The second segment is more negative toward the industry but also
nothing we weren’t warned about, here’s Reuters with the details (21):
SANTIAGO, April 8 (Reuters) - Chile is suing mines operated by BHP, Antofagasta and
Albemarle over alleged environmental damage caused by their operations in the
northern Salar de Atacama salt flats, a court said late on Thursday.
The State Defense Council (CDE) launched its legal action in the environmental court
over the pace of extraction from the Monturaqui-Negrillar-Tilopozo aquifer - an
important source of ground water - it said had impacted the fragile ecosystem.
Chile is the world’s top copper producer and a major source of lithium used in electric
vehicle batteries.
Increased exploitation “caused serious, permanent and irreparable deterioration of the
aquifer, of the Tilopozo plains, of the fauna, and of the life systems and customs of the
Peine Indigenous Community,” the First Environmental Court said, citing the lawsuit.
“The extraction of various amounts of water by the sued mining companies would have
caused damage that was foreseeable, since they were aware of the maximum limit of
descent that the aquifer could have,” it added.
Antofagasta’s Zaldivar copper mine said in a statement on Friday that it had extracted
water in accordance with what was allowed in its permits, adding that there was “no
evidence of environmental damage.”
Escondida, the world’s largest copper deposit controlled by BHP, said “it is fully
convinced that it has acted in accordance with its obligations” and that it had technical
studies showing there was no deterioration in the Tilopozo area of the aquifer.
Albemarle, one of the main lithium miners in Chile, did not immediately respond to a
request for comment.
Chile’s leftist President Gabriel Boric has made environmental protection a key focus of
his administration, including rights over water, since taking office in March.
In March, Chile’s environmental watchdog SMA fined Escondida for exceeding the
maximum level allowed for water extraction since 2005. Also last month, the SMA filed
charges against Albemarle for irregularities in its operation at the salar.
The CDE, a state body answerable to Boric, is demanding that the environmental
damage be made good and that the mining firms take steps to ensure such events are
not repeated.
The use of water in the Atacama has become an important regulatory issue for lithium
miners, who use brine to extract the light metal that is a critical component in the
manufacture of batteries. Chile is the world’s no. 2 producer of the battery metal.
In mitigation, BHP has already made plenty of noise about the fact that it no longer uses
underground water at La Escondida and its expensive desl plant now supplies all its needs.
Also, legal cases such as this one can (and will) drag out for years. This is more about putting
the mining industry on notice that the new government’s environmental agenda is here and
means something to current mines and future projects.
Argentina: Fernández and Trudeau talk mining
A quick snippet on a conversation between Argentina’s Alberto Fernández and Canada’s Justin
Trudeau on Thursday, which was announced the next day. Much was made of the common
ground between the countries on Ukraine but the pair touched on other subjects during the two
hour virtual conversation. Wile we weren’t given any details, this part of the official
communiqué is art least worth repeating (translated) (22):
“During the dialogue, in which the Minister of Economy Martín Guzman and Secretary
of Strategy Affairs Gustavo Beliz also participated, Fernández presented the general
25

lines of Argentina’s plan for mining development that looks to encourage foreign direct
investment (FDI) in a sector in which Canadian companies have a strong presence.
Canada is the 10th latest FDI country in Argentina and the number one in the mining
sector.”
Peru: The beatings will continue until morale improves
Moody’s last week published that it didn’t expect the Presidency of Pedro Castillo to go full
term; quite a thing for a risk agency to state in public. In fact, he could fall at any moment and
last week did nothing to stop the decadence. Last weekend’s brief note on Congress’s failure to
impeach President Castillo hedged its bets along the way by reiterating our “End Is Nigh”
position for his presidency with “This desk still considers it unlikely that Castillo make it to the
end of 2022 as Head of State, let alone his full term.” That process was accelerated once again
on Tuesday when, from seemingly out of nowhere, the government decided it had had enough
of the rise in violence around the current transport strike and imposed a 22-hour curfew on the
Lima/Callao conurbation, demanding that 10 to 12 million people stay at home instead of
getting on with life.
The Castillo cabinet did so because of intelligence reports regarding a protest march being
planned for that day. While things such as transport strikes and roadblocks aren’t so uncommon
in Peru (and why the nascent protests didn’t get much mention last weekend), there had been
an up-tick in intensity the day before. However there was nothing to truly justify the
government’s heavy-handed response, not the Interior Minister’s justification for the curfew
when stating to the press that “they” (i.e. the great unwashed) were going to “come down from
the hills and sack Lima.” The curfew was another clear demonstration of the ineptitude of
Castillo and his cabinet, s mentioned previously on these pages, after burning his bridges with
both political wings and any “normal” party he has a weak bench to choose from and the
country has been left in the hands of people who simply do not know how what they are doing.
This was rammed home on Wednesday in Huancayo, when during an Open House cabinet
meeting his Prime Minister Anibal Torres made international headlines by extolling the virtues of
Adolf Hitler for the economic success of 1930’s Germany (so help me). PM Torres now faces
sustained calls for his resignation and, as Torres represented Castillo’s last chance to form a
reasonable cabinet, if he goes the process toward the eventual resignation of Castillo would
accelerate. Indeed, last week Peru’s Congress also passed a motion that “Exhorted The
President to step aside”. Congress has blown its own chance to impeach Castillo and is reduced
to this type of non-binding statement, but it does show the depth of feeling against the
executive.
The problem isn’t just Castillo, but the mediocrity around him, such as his current a Minister of
Education who was revealed to have plagiarized 70% of his doctoral thesis in order to graduate
from university. Or the previously mentioned case of his Minster of Energy and Mining who has
scant experience in either sector got to where he was by funding Castillo’s Peru Libre party to
the tune of U$8,000 four years ago during a round of local elections and was rewarded with a
cushy public sector post as reward. The recently sacked Health Minister who sells quack
remedies has been replaced…roll of drums…by his personal friend who was suspended from his
hospital duties for three months in 2020 for irregularities and is under investigation for public
sector contracts that benefited his own private company. It would be laughable if these people
weren’t supposed to be running the country and at the meeting in Huancayo, the team were
received with chants of protests and speakers representing union workers who would normally
support a left wing cabinet. Instead they demanded to their faces that the President resign.
But that’s not all, as at the same meeting the aforementioned Minister of Mining, Carlos
Palacios, brought his own brand of populism and warned the mining industry that from now on,
they wouldn’t be able to export concentrate. He said (23)
"Enough already of a mining industry that exploits our minerals and gets rich with it.
From now on, (the company) that comes to invest will have to process the metal so
that it's taken away in bars and aggregates its value here (in Peru)".
“Idiot” is too kind. We can go on and on about the abject mediocrity, but what matters now is
26

the rise and rise of social protests against the government. Some are connected to the rise in
prices across the country, but the lack of control at national level has allowed protests to gain
momentum and, sadly, we’ll see these protests, road blocks, marches and sporadically violent
outbreaks continue and augment until Castillo goes. As for what happens after that, all depends
on the manner of his exit and whether the establishment oligarchy decides to do a deal with the
current Vice President Dina Boluarte, or whether those that really run the country are happy
about dissolving Congress at the same time and calling national elections for all posts. It will
look chaotic from the outside but, as mentioned previously, a few weeks of instability is much
preferred to the current situation that can only get worse. Peru needs a bloodletting, after
which it will be able to get back to something resembling stability. And one thing is 100% sure;
the Left wing has totally blown its chances to govern in the future and the next President and
administration will be right wing in nature and FDI friendly. Take that one to the bank.
Inflation rising across South America
Staying with Peru a moment, the baseline reason behind its transport strike is the sharp rise in
fuel costs. Truckers were quickly joined by farmers complaining about the doubling of fertilizer
prices, the resulting roadblocks and instability have brought the Castillo government closer to
its end. While governor of the Bank of England back in 2013. Mervyn King once famously said
of his colleagues at other CBs around the world, “If central bankers are the only game in town,
I’m getting out of town.” Your author tracked down the exact quote on Thursday afternoon
when reading that Peru’s Central Bank under Julio Verlarde (the only adult in Peru’s room) has
raised rates another half point to 4.5%, in order to combat a local inflation rate that is now
pushing 7% and shows every signal of going higher. In response, this week Peru announced
Sales Tax exoneration on fuel and some basic foodstuffs.
However, the rise of inflation is not confined to Peru and a check across the region (24) at the
“serious economies” shows more manifestations. That’s Chile, Brazil and Colombia, which along
with Peru are the orthodox neoliberal jurisdictions.
Ecuador’s dollarization makes it a strange case,
meanwhile in Argentina and Venezuela it’s difficult to
notice any uptick in inflation as the two countries have
been ravaged by the effect for years.
 In Chile, its Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 1.9%
in March alone, the biggest single monthly rise since
the current measuring method began 30 years ago
and far higher than the market’s +1.05%
expectations. Chile’s annual rate is now at +9.4% and
rising fast.
 In Brazil (25), its CPI rose by +1.62% and puts 12-month inflation at 11.3% as at March
2022, the highest rate since 2003. Brazil has also hiked its base interest rates that now stand
at over 11% (providing the bonds world with its preferred carry trade).
 In Colombia, annual inflation hit +8.53% in March (26) and is at a six year high. The annual
number is up half a point since February and a full 7% from the same point in 2021, which
gives a feel for the acceleration. This trend may play into the hands of left winger Gustavo
Petro and against chosen government candidate Federico ‘Fico’ Gutiérrez in the upcoming
elections, see below for the latest developments on that race.
Colombia: Another poll calls a Fico vs Petro run-off, President Duque talks mining
Round One of the Colombia election now looks predictable and we are getting a range of “It’s
Fico vs Petro” reports and op-eds in the Colombian press. This week, pollster CNC confirmed
the trend with its latest poll (27), here are the numbers that matter:
 Lefty Petro 34%
 Righty Fico 23%
27

 Independent Rodolfo Hernández 12%
 Centrist Sergio Fajardo 9%
 Ingrid Betancourt 2%
 John Milton Rodríguez 1%
As for that likely second round, the same poll calls it 41% Petro, 39% Fico, “vote in while” (i.e.
leave ballot sheet blank) 6%, 7% none-of-the-above. The poll has a margin of error of 2.2%, in
other words round two is set to be tight. That’s a better position than a month ago for the
opposition to Petro.
On the subject, on April 4th Barclays Colombia analyst Alejandro Arreaza wrote in a note to
client (28)s that the risk/reward for Colombia investments at present is “asymmetrically
positive”. The analyst argues a Fico win would (translated) “dissipate market doubts over the
fundamental perspective of Colombia”, while even a Petro win wouldn’t be as bad as it’s made
out, as (translated) “the risks would be contained by controls and institutional checks and
balances”, a fancy way of saying that as Petro doesn’t have control of Congress, he’d have
difficulty in pushing through a hard Left wing agenda.
This desk agrees on the practical level, but there are two obvious caveats. Firstly, image is as
important and substance during and even after the election period and there’s no point in
wading in while the wider business world considers Colombia a simple “Right vs Commie” battle
(it was bad enough trying to explain to the world that Chile wasn’t about to go raging Commie
under Boric, a Petro win in Colombia would be even louder). Secondly, the case of our specific
focus of mining, is sadly, different: Petro would be a continued negative on the sector and
those institutional controls would not help much when his government departments slow down
development and permitting to a crawl. So while agreeing with the wider point made on
Colombia’s macro economy, calling Petro neutral for mining is naïve at best, more likely
dangerous for the back pocket.
Finally, it’s notable that President Ivan Duque is pushing his supposedly neutral position on the
election to its absolute limit. According to the rules, the sitting President is not allowed to
interfere in the election process but that hasn’t stopped Duque making several veiled attacks on
Petro in the last couple of weeks. The latest was last week while visiting the Boyacá coal mining
region and he used the mining industry and the political threats it faced. Here are examples of
what he said (29) (translated):
“Mining has been satanized by authoritanism. They build lie upon lie abou0t how
mining is the enemy of society. They are sophisms that try to stop our economy from
turning the corner to the advantage of whoever.”
“Be very careful with these sophist and demagogical discourses that want to stop
mining.”
“We cannot allow this populist discourse to gain ground. It would be the end of Boyacá,
here there’s no populism, there’s a will to work. Here what we want to do is work, not to
destroy all we have achieved.”
Without mentioning the name “Petro” and therefore just keeping inside the rules, President
Duque made his point and is clearly helping Fico with a soft campaign in his favour.
Brazil: Lula maintains advantage over Bolsonaro
While the latest first round voter intention poll from pollster XP/Ispespe (30) (1,000 sampled by
phone, MoE +/- 3.5%) have some love for the pro-Bolsonaro camp, his six point improvement
in the polls to 30% comes from the fading of third party candidates, rather than any particular
weakness in voter intention for the frontrunner Lula da Silva (44%).
More concerning for the sitting President is the run-off voter intention, which still puts Lula in a
52% to 33% lead (11% none of the above, 4% undecided). This is the hurdle Jair Bolsonaro
has to surmount, as it might also lead Brazilians to tactically vote Lula in round one and get him
28

over the 50% barrier without the need for a run-off. Notably, voter intention also tallies closely
with approval ratings for the Bolsonaro administration during the same poll, which stand at
29% “optimum” or “good”, 15% “regular”, then 54% “bad” or “awful”. Equally, 33% of those
polled approve of the way Jair Bolsonaro runs his presidency and 63% disapprove. The
Bolsonaro campaign has now begun and unsurprisingly, its thrust is negative with constant
references to Lula and PT Party corruption.
Market Watching
Atex Resources (ATX.v) update
Back in IKN668 dated March 6th we ran the note “Atex Resources (ATX.v): A high risk high
reward copper idea” and since then we’ve seen significant price action, so here’s a one month
update on the soft coverage of this Cu exploreco, starting with a price chart:
The stock flatlined through March, then came its second boost starting when large insider
holder and famous market player Pierre Lassonde added 1.5m shares to his previous 10m
shares, through open market purchasing as from March 31st . The news of ‘Lucky Pierre’ adding
was enough to shoot ATX higher and overrode any concerns that last year’s large placement,
due out of escrow on April 4th, would result in profit-taking. The momentum has moved ATX up
to 85c, which makes it a C$86m market capper assuming none of those ITM warrants have
been exercised.
We outlined ATX as a high risk/high reward potential copper trade in IKN669 and since then, its
move from 49c to this weekend is +73.5% and clearly highlights the latter. However, the move
is all about buzz and momentum rather than results, the market perhaps assuming that
because Lucky Pierre has bought more the upcoming drill numbers must be good. Personally I
highly doubt Lassonde has inside information, CEO Jannas is one of those who plays strictly by
the book and wouldn’t risk his strong peer reputation this way. In fact, the timing of Lassonde’s
second purchase suggests a strategy was already in place to add designated capital and bolster
the placement purchase, all via good optics and timings (a.k.a. market psychology 101,
something Lassonde knows all about). We also saw one director take minor profits in the last
29

week, selling 30k of his approx 250k holding and while there’s always a thousand reasons to
sell, one of those is to smartly de-risk a position and get one’s cost average down to zero in
high risk explorecos.
The bottom line is that ATX now has quite a lot of drill success baked into its price. Put another
way, a sparkling set of drill assays from the three holes currently underway (or under assay)
would push it higher, but some of the explosive upside is already in the price and on the other
hand, the drop will be even steeper is ATX doesn’t impress the market with these first three
holes. Those of you who were braver than this desk and bought a few ATX shares around the
50c and 60c price levels in March may want to consider the same type of partial, risk-reduction
sale made by director Bill Jung, though if you’re the type of high risk tolerance player who
bought into ATX in the first place, you’ll surely want to hold the majority of your shares through
to see if the big pay-off comes via the drill bit. Personally, I will continue to be chicken and
watch from the sidelines until hard data appears.
Chesapeake Gold (CKG.v) 4q21 financials
As seen in the ‘Stocks to Follow’ noted today, the CKG share price took a dive last week on low
volumes, here are two charts as witness; to the left, the straight price chart showing the C$3.25
close Friday, to the right the comparative with GDXJ to show the recent lag:
If that drop had happened on bigger volume I’d be concerned, instead this smacks of a good
buying opportunity (or addition in my case), so if the low prices continue into the week ahead
I’ll look to pick up a few more. However, be clear that this trade is and will remain personally
modest in size until we know more about the metallurgy test results and its plans for drilling in
the second half of this year.
Meanwhile and as also mentioned above, CKG filed its 4q21 financials on Friday and that’s good
reason to update the basic tracking charts and provide some comment. Our main focus is on
the balance sheet, as this simple story is easily tracked using just these data. Here are the
assets and liabilities overview charts and 4q21 wasn’t much more than continuation of previous
quarters:
CKG.v: Assets
200
180
160 140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
30
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4
$m CKG.v: Liabilities per qtr
11
fixed 10
other current 9 cash 8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
source: company filings
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
LT liabs
current liabs

Liabilities are tiny, the only lump being C$8.1m in deferred tax that’s an accounting exercise
and makes little difference in real terms. As for assets, burn was low during the quarter and the
company continues to preserve capital, which is good. The only notable difference to our model
is the cash position (below left), which remained higher than anticipated and, surprisingly,
actually grew during the quarter. That’s because CKG elected to sell marketable securities
instead of burning straight treasury and that means it has been selling some of its position in
majority-owned Gunpoint Exploration. We approve of this strategy, but it does mean working
capital is a better tell on background burn than the cash position (below right).
Working cap dropped by a modest C$1.862m in the quarter and1 from that, we re-jig our
forecasts for working cap for 2022. Considering the current policy of low background burn and
then the upcoming payments for met work and then a drill program later this year, we now
forecast CKG exiting 2022 with C$20m at bank. A healthy position.
Just two more charts in today’s check-up on CKG’s progress, with this expenses chart showing
how burn has moved up since CKG revived its development of Metates under the new
management, but in absolute terms is still very low compared to the large scale of its gold
resource (and the meterage of drilling in Metates, not to be sniffed at):
2.6 CGK.v: Operating expenses
2.4
2.2
2
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
31
81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4
50 CGK.v: Working Capital per qtr
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
C$m
other
share based comp
prof fees
mgmt fees
G&A
Exploration
source: CGK filings
Finally, shares out stand at exactly 67,366,866 as at today and with CKG’s large treasury
position and plans for this year (and next, for that
matter), there’s no reason to expect that to change.
Your bonus ball is the low number of derivates, just
4.78m options outstanding. As for the MD&A, the
only segment that stood out to these eyes was the
rather sparse paragraph on 2022 plans. Nothing
here we didn’t already know, but worth a read all
the same:
Going forward the Company will continue the
focus on using the Technology to de-risk and
unlock value at Metates. An extensive
metallurgical test program is being undertaken
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 tse22q1 tse22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
source company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
CKG.v: Cash treasury, per qtr
826.51 13.51 608.41 432.61 852.51 11.51 656.41
264.43 842.43 220.53 2.33 637.13 718.13
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4
C$m
source: company filings
100 CGK.v: Shares Out
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 tse22q1 tse22q2
source: company filings
serahs
fo
snoillim

over the next 18 months to 2 years. An in-fill drilling program was commenced in
November to improve the geological structural controls, drilling density and provide
composite metallurgical samples for variability testing. As the results of the additional
drilling, the initial results of the metallurgical testing and other support work, a
prefeasibility study is expected to commence in late 2022.
The “Technology” it refers to being the proprietary tech brought into CKG when it bought out
Alderley and started working on a re-interpretation of the Metates met. If things go to plan, we
should get the first solid results of CKG’s extensive column leach testing at the end of the
current quarter (which may mean waiting until the start of Q3, what with mining being mining).
Bottom line: The numbers and news as posted on Friday give no reason for the selling we saw
last week. As the drop came on low volume and provides a window of opportunity, I’ll try to
add a few more around this price and then allow Metates results to come in. At that point, we’ll
know whether this foothold starter position is worth chasing more seriously.
A quick note on Pure Gold (PGM.v)
After making mention of Pure Gold (PGM.v) and its trainwreck share price chart last week on
the open blog (8), all on the back of its “we need more money” news release of late March, I
received a handful of mails on the subject and therefore, instead of just replying to the senders,
here’s a quick and generalized thought on the subject.
No, I’m not about to jump in and buy some PGM on the hope/expectation/speculation/etc that
it secures the financing it requires to stay open and make the operational upgrades identified by
its new team. Instead, I will continue to watch from the sidelines until real news shows up, only
then will I make a judgment call and even then, if I see no trade I won’t feel the compulsion to
make mention of the stock. Aside from its financial woes, the reason to stay away from PGM
today is that there’s no need to get involved. What companies such as PGM fail to understand is
that investors don’t have to care about their broken story, even less so when then are quite
literally dozens of other trade ideas and spec potentials in the market that wouldn’t risk the
same amount of downside (and I suspect AngloGold Ashanti may feel the same way). We’re in
a target-rich environment and those tend to be buyer’s markets so, when we’re spoiled for
choice why choose a story that’s clearly failed and is dependent on people saying “Yes, but this
time we really will be able to fix it.” After all, I’m selling MUX nest week for this precise reason.
A quick note on Moneta Gold (ME.to)
A few days ago I spent an interesting and educative hour Zooming with the people at Moneta
Gold (ME.to), in which they brought me up to speed on their Tower Gold project, some 100km
East of Timmins, Canada. Tower Gold is a combination project of open-pit and underground
plans that combines the company’s Golden Highway and Garrison properties, as well as some
other outlying smaller targets that, once combined, add up to around 8.5m oz gold in total.
ME is an old story that’s becoming revitalized under the new management team and I don’t
mind admitting being pleasantly surprised as my prejudices about its project were shot down
during the Zoom call. ME is now on my radar as a potential trade and may or may not get
further coverage here at the IKN Weekly in future editions, but the reason it gets a mention
today is that we can expect a resource update from the company in the next few days. During
the call, ME didn’t keep much of a secret about the way it expects a meaningful addition to its
resource numbers thanks to the recent drill
work and if they did that with me, they’ve
told plenty of other people the same story.
With the stock having moved well recently
(right), this may be a “buy the rumour, sell
the news” moment for ME.to and if so, a
retrace to lower levels once the resource
update is done would make it a more
attractive long-term proposition. One for the
radar and with a resource about to go over
32

10m oz gold, one that may well make plenty of noise this month.
Sprott Inc buys into a Peruvian copper story
Sprott Inc is the majority shareholder of Cobre de los Andes S.A.C, a Peruvian company that
earlier this year picked up development concessions in and around the old (and bankrupted)
Castrovirreyna area of Peru. However last week it upped its ante by paying U$22m for Cobriza
Mining Unit of Huancavelica. This company is the small past producer of copper in the La Oroya
area of Central Peru (famous for the highly polluting smelter that went bankrupt when owned
by Ira Rennert, who refused to pay his environmental bill). Cobriza owns a small underground
and plant that can produce up to 9,000 tons of copper per year (with a small silver by-product
kicker but also has a 58 mining concessions. They are mainly under-explored and that seems to
be part of the Sprott/Cobre de los Andes SAC plans.
According to the chief executive of Cobre de los Andes, Joaquín Cabrera Arias (translated) (31)
(32), “We are working so that within 24 months we can be producing, at a rate of 9,000 tons
per day. We have exploration plans in Cobriza, as we know its potential. The mining unit has
153,000 hectares dating back to the time of the Cerro de Pasco Copper Corporation, and we
believe that only 4,000 hectares have been explored.”
Queen’s Road Capital (QRC.v) invests in Contango ORE Inc (CTGO)
When two companies on my radar do a deal, the deal gets mentioned here in ‘Market Watching’
even if the note makes its author feel slightly embarrassed and sheepish. While we have made
mention of the interesting and prospective Contango Ore Inc (CTGO) here in the Weekly and
also on the blog (33), thanks to its Manh Choh and its and its fully carried 30/70 partnership
with Kinross (designed to add high grade and improve the Kinross Fort Knox head grade). On
top of that, CTGO also 100% owns the small but high grade ‘Lucky Shot’ gold mine in Alaska
which could bring plenty of bonus upside to its share price. However, to date I’ve made zero
mention of QRC.v despite it being on my radar for several months and now I’m beginning to
regret that, because today I’m required to tip my hand. The reason QRC is interesting is its
business model, which is a variant on the royalty/streamer model that looks to invest in
development stories, but QRC prefers moving in via convertible debt deals. This model makes a
lot of sense over a long-term and they’ve managed to attract another round of (oversubscribed)
financing for its plans recently. And we now know what QRC is doing with the cash recently
raised; A few days ago it announced a top-up of its position in Los Andes Copper (LA.v) but the
bigger deal came late Friday evening in this NR (34):
Hong Kong, Hong Kong--(Newsfile Corp. - April 9, 2022) - Queen's Road Capital
Investment Ltd. (TSXV: QRC) (the "Company" or "QRC") is pleased to announce that it
has entered into a binding agreement with Contango ORE, Inc. ("CORE") whereby the
Company will purchase US$20,000,000 of convertible debentures to be issued by
CORE.
The convertible debentures will have a 4-year term, carry an 8.0% coupon (6.0%
payable in cash and 2.0% payable in shares), a 3% establishment fee and will be
This is a smart deal and without having the time to go into the numbers this weekend, looks
like a win-win at first sight. QRC gets its interest-bearing position that converts into equity on
maturity, CTGO gets the cash it needs to develop Lucky Shot and make more market noise
while Kinross moves Peak Gold to production. While today’s note is little more than a heads-up,
it makes CTGO in particular a more interesting propositions. Under CEO Rick Van
Nieuwenhuyse, the company has kept under to radar to date and as a result, suffers from low
volume despite its full US listing. That may change and if it does, expect people to start looking
at the underlying fundamental value and recognizing CTGO as an undervalued stock.
Conclusion
IKN673 is done, we end with one bullet point:
 Never mind the quality, feel the width. Another long edition and I’m not sure where all
these words are coming from. It won’t last.
33

I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stocks are Minera Alamos (MAI.v) and
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v). Flash updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best wishes, Mark
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://www.kitco.com/news/2022-04-08/Silver-prices-are-stuck-but-future-shines-bright-as-industrial-demand-grows-
Bank-of-America.html
(2) https://electrabmc.com/electra-advances-construction-of-solvent-extraction-plant/
(3) https://electrabmc.com/electra-announces-nasdaq-listing-application-and-share-consolidation/
(4) https://electrabmc.com/electra-announces-offtake-agreement-for-recycled-battery-material/
(5) https://electrabmc.com/electra-signs-battery-recycling-and-cobalt-supply-agreement-with-marubeni/
(6) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xf_PpJGg1uY
(7) https://www.kitco.com/news/2022-04-05/Exclusive-Canada-to-invest-C-2-billion-on-mineral-strategy-for-EV-battery-
supply-chain.html
(8) https://www.mcewenmining.com/investor-relations/press-releases/press-release-details/2022/McEwenMining-
Amends-Term-Loan-Facility-and-Raises-Additional-15-Million-from-Rob-McEwen/default.aspx
(9) https://mineraalamos.com/news/2022/santana-mine-operations-q1-update/
(10) https://www.spglobal.com/commodity-insights/en/market-insights/latest-news/metals/040522-high-raw-material-
costs-covid-19-measures-challenge-chinas-nev-industry
(11) https://www.mining.com/goldman-sees-new-all-time-high-for-copper-price-by-mid-year/
(12) https://finance.yahoo.com/news/regulus-extends-mineralization-antakori-copper-110000825.html
(13) https://www.kinross.com/news-and-investors/news-releases/press-release-details/2022/Kinross-announces-sale-of-
Russian-assets/default.aspx
(14) https://www.asantegold.com/tpost/ru88o3t6b1-asante-gold-enters-into-exclusivity-agre
(15) https://www.kinross.com/news-and-investors/news-releases/press-release-details/2022/Kinross-provides-update-
on-Great-Bear-development/default.aspx
(16) https://www.kinross.com/news-and-investors/news-releases/press-release-details/2022/Kinross-to-announce-Q1-
results-on-May-10-2022/default.aspx
(17) https://iknnews.com/kinross-russian-bear-beats-great-bear/
(18) https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/rejection-chiles-new-constitution-reaches-record-high-survey-2022-04-04/
(19) https://www.latercera.com/politica/noticia/ya-hay-fecha-plebiscito-de-salida-para-votar-una-nueva-constitucion-
sera-el-4-de-septiembre/WEIXXKMZ4ZFQFMDWVYMKSFIGNE/
(20) https://www.memo.com.ar/economia/boric-rodolfo-suarez-mineria-mendoza-reactivacion-economia/
(21) https://www.reuters.com/article/chile-mining-idCNL2N2W618Z
(22) https://www.swissinfo.ch/spa/argentina-canad%C3%A1_fern%C3%A1ndez-dialoga-con-trudeau-sobre-ucrania--
energ%C3%ADa-at%C3%B3mica-y-miner%C3%ADa/47503984
(23) https://gestion.pe/economia/minem-las-mineras-que-vengan-a-peru-deben-procesar-el-metal-para-llevarselo-en-
barra-rmmn-noticia/
(24) https://www.reuters.com/article/chile-inflation/update-1-chile-inflation-surges-to-1-9-in-march-highest-level-since-
1993-idUSL2N2W60UE
(25) https://www.portafolio.co/economia/en-vivo-inflacion-en-colombia-marzo-de-2022-
34

(26) https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazils-inflation-tops-forecasts-with-sharpest-rise-march-28-years-2022-
04-08/
(27) https://www.infobae.com/america/colombia/2022/04/08/petro-y-fico-siguen-adelante-en-las-encuestas-y-podrian-
tener-un-empate-tecnico-en-segunda-vuelta/
(28) https://www.bloomberglinea.com/2022/04/04/que-pasa-si-fico-o-petro-ganan-la-presidencia-en-colombia-esto-dice-
barclays/
(29) https://www.elespectador.com/politica/elecciones-colombia-2022/cuarta-vez-en-la-que-duque-habla-sobre-
propuestas-de-petro-esta-vez-sobre-mineria/
(30) https://www.poder360.com.br/pesquisas/xp-ipespe-em-1a-pesquisa-sem-moro-bolsonaro-marca-30/
(31) https://www.huaral.pe/liquidadora-de-doe-run-vende-la-mina-cobriza-por-us-22-millones/2022/
(32) https://rpp.pe/economia/economia/doe-run-venden-mina-cobriza-por-us-22-millones-noticia-1398401?ref=rpp
(33) https://iknnews.com/contango-ore-ctgo-and-a-webinar-worth-your-time-this-thursday/
(34) https://finance.yahoo.com/news/queens-road-capital-announces-investment-230000388.html
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Set-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Abr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
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Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Ago-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Set-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Ene-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Set-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Ene-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Set-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Ago-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Abr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Set-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Abr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Set-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
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Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-ago-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-ene-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-abr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-abr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-ene-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-ene-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-abr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-abr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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