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The IKN Weekly
Week 670, March 20th 2022
Contents
This Week: In Today’s Edition, Do Fight The Fed, Like it or not, gold is going higher.
Fundamental Analysis: Considering a change in coverage strategy, Five new company ideas:
 Superior Gold (SGI.v): All the leverage to gold you need
 Meridian Mining (MNO.v): A world class copper/gold deposit in the making
 Newcore Gold (NCAU.v): Cheap, big and simple
 Electra Battery Materials (ELBM.v): Future Facing and then some
 Western Copper & Gold (WRN.to): The time is right for big Canadian copper
Stocks to Follow: Trilogy Metals (TMQ), Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v), Minera Alamos (MAI.v), Element 29
Resources (ECU.v) QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v), Chesapeake Gold (CKG.v), Aldebaran
Resources (ALDE.v), Discovery Silver (DSV.v), Amerigo Resources (ARG.to).
Copper Basket: Overview, Kutcho Copper (KC.v), Oroco Resources (OCO.v).
Producer Basket: Overview, Barrick (again) (GOLD).
TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Kingfisher Metals (KFR.v).
Regional Politics: Colombia: It’s set for Petro vs Fico, Brazil: Lula da Silva maintains his poll
lead over Jair Bolsonaro, Argentina’s deal with the IMF is another positive for its mining sector,
Nicaragua political risk update, The Amazon tipping point and Ecuador indigenous opposition to
mining.
Market Watching: Palladium and Platinum update, Almaden (AMM.to) (AAU), Great Panther
(GPR.to)(GPL) and Excellon (EXN.to)(EXN): From whence they came.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
In Today’s Edition
 Today’s main event runs the ruler over five companies not currently owned or held at
The IKN Weekly. We also float the idea for a change in the way this publication covers
the junior mining sector and recommends stocks, all feedback on that gratefully
received.
 Another intro that drones on about gold, The Fed and Ukraine.
 Copper fundamentals continue to show bullish, see the Copper Basket for more.
 This week has another out-sized Regional Polirics section and once again, the note on
Colombia and its upcoming Presidential election is the main event. Avoid exposure to
the country until further notice.
Do Fight The Fed
Hamlet: "Madam, how like you this play?"
Gertrude: "The lady doth protest too much, methinks"
The US Macro Live & Direct theatre is not my normal cup of tea, but last Wednesday I did step
away from a whole bunch of mining company webinar presentations happening at the same
1

time to do a little amateur Fedwatching at Jerome Powell’s press conference. The event came
on the back of the widely telegraphed quarter point raise and while that didn’t come as a
surprise, I’m glad to have tuned in as the performance (there is not better word) from the Fed
Head brought to mind that moment from Hamlet, quoted above. After a long period during
which The USA kept its base rates at zero we knew the messaging would be aimed at inflation,
but Jay Powell didn’t bother with nuance. Dual mandate be damned, his repeated insistence
that The Fed would raise, raise, and raise again in order to bring (what we are supposed to
believe is a temporary pulse of) inflation under control was a far cry from the days of Alan
Greenspan and his cryptic messaging. This was as subtle as a carpet-bombing run on a
provincial Ukraine town, no matter the question Jay Powell seemed to swing every reply back to
“and we’re going to raise rates a lot, by the way.” His need to convince others was evident, but
he clearly didn’t get the reaction he wanted from Wall St's collective and for evidence, we could
use the US Treasurys yield curve that inverted at the long end (the 5 and 10 year paper), or we
could use the broad market that rallied in the face of a policy call that is ostensibly bearish for
equities. But instead, let’s keep true to form and on-topic because these days, the intro sections
of Thje IKN Weekly tend to centre around gold bullion:
Along with a plethora of other indicators, gold last week told us the market isn't buying Jay
Powell's insistence. First up there’s the financial side and with economies around the world
marking down growth, the market’s reaction was simply not to believe the Fed’s story. The Fed
dot plot tells us to gird our loins for rates raises at the next six meetings (with Fed main hawk
Bullard coming out a day later with his own version of “and that’s for starters”, the jawbone has
already begun) and while we believe the Fed is sincere with its plan, the board is acting as if
the Ukraine war doesn’t exist, or that doesn't matter, or maybe it bought Putin's fake cease fire
talk. Either way, Jay Powell's decision to ignore the new geopolitical risk in the hope that it goes
away didn’t make it past the market’s scrutiny.
 We know that, because the S&P500 had its biggest week since late 2020 as the
market decided the Fed wasn’t going to get inflation under control
 We know that, because gold rallied with the market after the Fed decision.
 We know that, because even when gold’s price backed off on Friday it did so
for other reasons that the Fear Trade, as seen here:
GLD gold holdings, 2021 to date (metric tonnes)
1220
1200
1180
1160
1140
1120
1100
1080
1060
1040
1020
1000
980
960
940
2 12/1/4 12/1/41 12/1/42 12/2/3 12/2/31 12/2/32 12/3/5 12/3/51 12/3/52 12/4/4 12/4/41 12/4/42 12/5/4 12/5/41 12/5/42 12/6/3 12/6/31 12/6/32 12/7/3 12/7/31 12/7/32 12/8/2 12/8/21 12/8/22 12/9/1 12/9/11 12/9/12 12/01/1 12/01/11 12/01/12 12/01/13 12/11/01 12/11/02 12/11/03 12/21/01 12/21/02 12/21/03 22/1/9 22/1/91 22/1/92 22/2/8 22/2/81 22/2/82 22/3/01
mt
source: SPDR GLD data

GLD: Inventory/Price Ratio, 2021 to date
7.00
6.80
6.60
6.40
6.20
6.00
5.80
5.60
5.40
5.20
5.00
3
4/1/1202 41/1/1202 42/1/1202 3/2/1202 31/2/1202 32/2/1202 5/3/1202 51/3/1202 52/3/1202 4/4/1202 41/4/1202 42/4/1202 4/5/1202 41/5/1202 42/5/1202 3/6/1202 31/6/1202 32/6/1202 3/7/1202 31/7/1202 32/7/1202 2/8/1202 21/8/1202 22/8/1202 1/9/1202 11/9/1202 12/9/1202 1/01/1202 11/01/1202 12/01/1202 13/01/1202 01/11/1202 02/11/1202 03/11/1202 01/21/1202 02/21/1202 03/21/1202 9/1/2202 91/1/2202 92/1/2202 8/2/2202 81/2/2202 82/2/2202 01/3/2202
Source: SPDR data, IKN calcs
GLD added 18.29 metric tonnes to its physical inventory last week and along with the drop in
the price of gold, means the Inventory/Price ratio is back (just) over 6.0X and showing a pulse.
The only other time it managed to get above that line this year was the six-day period as
January turned to February and gold was briefly sold down to under U$1,800/oz.
When on Friday the market moved to Risk On, gold’s near-term liquidation was just another
part of the playbook and its price adjusted down to close the week at U$1,920/oz. However and
notably, that didn’t stop Wall Street from being net buyers of the metal and this weekend’s total
GLD inventory of 1,082.44 metric tonnes is the highest for over a year. Let’s put that Friday
reversal in another way:
In the days that Putin assured us his army was merely conducting military exercises, gold was
trading at U$1,900/oz. Friday’s close means gold has added around 1% of risk value to its
price, even as GLD has added 63mt to its physical stocks. Between then we’ve seen the tanks
roll in, nuclear weapons used to threaten the West, the West imposing sanctions on a major
world economy that are not going to roll back and a Fed move that was greeted as gold bullish.
Like it or not, gold is going higher
I’d allow that last Friday’s gold price drop may have been nudged along by relatively benign
news out of Ukraine (and I’m not trying to belittle the carnage and horror, merely pointing to
the way nothing escalated and the Russian army has not yet descended on Kyiv), but risk
premium priced into gold has all-but disappeared while real risk has gone through the roof.
With gold as our guide, we see that the market has decoupled from reality and seems to think
the war is not a threat to its well-being, that this time is not different to other geopolitical
events in recent history. If Mr. Market is right, it would be logical to see gold being marked
down as real-time nervousness drops. S perhaps it took Putin’s latest charade (1) at face value:
Russian president Vladimir Putin told German chancellor Olaf Scholz during a phone
call on Friday that Kyiv was “attempting to stall peace talks” with Russia but that
Moscow was still keen to continue negotiations.

“It was noted that the Kyiv regime is attempting in every possible way to delay the
negotiation process, putting forward more and more unrealistic proposals,” the Kremlin
said in a readout of the call.
“Nonetheless the Russian side is ready to continue searching for a solution in line with
its well-known principled approaches.”
Sadly, the market last week is no reflection of the real world and it’s only a matter of time
before gold moves back up. This time really is different and it seems Wall St will need real-time
hard lessons in order to get it. Sorry folks, life is not going back to the way it was on February
23rd 2022, the scenarios of “back to normal” after hot conflict are pure Utopia:
 If “Ukraine wins”, Russia is beaten and goes back to Moscow, tail between legs, then
Putin's regime is toppled and the country then gets to rejoice as one as it joins in
harmony with The Free World.
 On the other side of the coin, if the judges rule “Russia wins” it then installs its puppet
government of choice, we all grumble a while and then the West forgets about the
whole pesky event as sanctions are rolled back.
Be clear, neither scenario is going to happen. Like it or not, Putin is not about to be toppled,
the Russian army isn't about to "run out of ammo" or "lose too many soldiers", its leaders won’t
agree to a cease-fire or any end of hostilities on the terms of others. Not until it has won one of
its major objectives at least and by that, we mean the fall of Kyiv and the government of
Ukraine of its choice as strict minimum. Meanwhile on the other side of the fence, the decades-
long Peace Dividend that arguably began with the end of the Berlin Wall and has allowed the
world’s middle class to grow in the last 30 years is now history. The sanctions imposed on
Russia are here to stay and even in the best of outcomes, all the Western world can do from
now is arm its borders, then watch from the other side as Russia slowly crushes the Ukraine
using the strategies that best suit its cause. Forget about a quick end to this war, Russia isn’t
going to stop at defeat or even stalemate and has already shown its willingness to use brutal
siege tactics and target civilians in order to break Ukraine. If it decides that invading Kyiv will
kill too many of its troops, it will simply bomb seven bells out of the capital in the same way it’s
doing to provincial towns. We on the outside are set to witness an ongoing Hell and until NATO
(or The West or whatever other) lifts a finger, it will not stop.
When one considers what’s in the pipeline, the last few days of benign trading in gold are more
easily understood as the illusion they most definitely are and the effects of cruel reality will
show in both its long-term trend as well as any knee-jerk as the escalatory war continues and
crushes Ukraine. The market’s propensity to ignore trajectory and react to near-term
circumstances worked for the S&P500 last week but is bound to unwind as the horror unfolds
(and pushs gold higher) so consider not just the long-term repercussions, but the near-term
effect on markets of any one, or a combination, of the following examples:
 What happens when Kyiv is bombarded seriously and the civilian death toll skyrockets?
 What happens when President Volodymyr Zelenskyy* is killed, or captured, or exiled, or
is forced to retreat to the West of Ukraine?
 What happens when Russia takes Kyiv?
 What happens when two-thirds of Ukraine is under Russian control and the bombs start
dropping on Ukraine's remnant army to the West of the country?
 What happens when Russia engages in a surgical strike on Ukraine supply lines on the
other side of the border, i.e. inside NATO territory?
Those and many others that don’t come to mind. I don’t know which will come to pass, but at
least one of them and maybe more are a near-certainty because, like it or not, Russia isn’t
about to give up and go home without a meaningful win. Neither is it seriously negotiating a
cease-fire and Ukraine’s obvious willingness to talk is all you need to know about the real power
in control of the terms and conditions to stop the bullets. Or as another example, today CNN
offers this headline: “Zelensky: 'I'm ready for negotiations' with Putin, but if they fail, it could
mean 'a third World War'” (2). It certainly sounds noble and there’s no doubting the courage
4

and integrity of the man, but if you set yourself up as the only buffer between the world and
WW3, you are simply asking for trouble.
The Ukraine scenario is morally desperate and once again, The IKN Weekly isn’t here to dwell
on the human cost or the evil on clear display. Instead, we consider the questions we as
resource investors need to address, rather than watching market prices for metals (base or
precious) move in pinball style. The status quo now works against Ukraine and like it or not
(and I don’t, not in the least) it’s only a matter of time before Russia gains the upper hand in its
military offensive against Ukraine. Like it or not, Russia doesn’t have to accede to NATO’s line in
the sand and will feel justified in taking action against what it has already designated an "act of
war", i.e. the supply of military hardware by NATO countries to Ukraine's army. If Russia strikes
against NATO’s supply columns inside a NATO border, we in the West will call it escalation while
Putin will call it justifiable retaliation for our escalations. And as for how this ends, unless
escalation goes to the nightmare levels implied by that surgically cold phrase “across the
nuclear threshold”, the only way Russia gets it off-ramp is with a meaningful victory for its
efforts. That means control of Kyiv at an absolute minimum and the longer it takes, the uglier
and more destabilizing it will be.
The bottom line is to be clear about the reasons to own gold in 2022: Russia is not going to
stop its attack, Putin is not about to be replaced, things are going to get worse before they get
better and at some point, either physically or politically, even the best case scenario will see
Kyiv fall to Russia (and today, let’s not do any of the worst cases). This is the world in which
The Fed thinks it can raise rates at will without causing an economic slowdown, so help us all.
Own bullion, ladies and gents, because like it or not gold is going higher.
*Apparently, his preferred spelling using our alphabet symbols.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Considering a change in coverage strategy
The new, target-rich environment for resource stocks has brought to a head a subject that’s
been preying on my mind for months, rather than the last few weeks. It’s time to make public
mention of the issue and in order not to turn it into some hackneyed self-help diatribe or make
it sound as though there’s an existential crisis going on behind the scenes* I’m going to keep
this short and snappy but, at the same time, make a humble request for feedback on this
question as I’d be most interested in other viewpoints. Bullet points set the scenario:
 The market is now moving into a bullish phase and there are many new and interesting
company stories on offer.
 From the very beginning, The IKN Weekly ‘Stocks to Follow’ list has been restricted to
the companies I personally own.
 I don’t have a limitless budget for stock ownership (ands prefer to focus on 15 stocks
maximum).
 These days, the ‘Stocks to Follow’ companies are ones to which I afford happily afford
some patience, typically allowing each company or story at least a year to show its
worth.
 The current market set-up is going to offer plenty of stocks and stories with near-term
upside potential.
To cut to the chase, I’ve always defended the way in which the ‘Stocks to Follow’ list is created
and covered at “the least worst” while always keenly aware of the limitations of not covering
more stocks, or not actively recommending stocks that I don’t personally own. With the
changes now happening in the market, I’m now at the point where I feel overly restricted by
the way The IKN Weekly goes about its Stocks to Follow list. As a topical example, please note
today’s main Fundies notes on five stocks that I’ve filtered out from the crowd as live and
interesting trade options, as today I own none of them. I could of course buy a few shares in
each and play cute, but there would be no difference in real terms so to get to the point, two
5

statements and one question:
 I am considering abandoning the current Stocks to Follow format and allowing in stocks
that I do not personally own.
 I am considering expanding the number of stocks on the Stocks to Follow list to at least
20, rather than the current self-imposed maximum of 15.}
What do you think, dear reader? You may not care (and that’s fine by me), but if you have an
opinion and want to share, it would be gratefully received at this end before any final decision
gets made. I thank you in advance.
*There isn’t, but an extra hour or two of extra sleep per night wouldn’t go amiss. The pleasures of parenthood.
Five new company ideas
Today’s main fundies note is a direct result of the profound changes now happening in the
mining and resource sector. It’s also a tacit admission that recent coverage of stocks here at
The IKN Weekly has become a little stale and there are a whole bunch of new or rapidly
changing stories that demand close attention. I’ve spent the past two weeks on a filtering
exercise, looking for the type of well-run company with serious operation or project that we
prefer on these pages and come up with these five ideas with today the initial showcase and
introduction. We’ll have more to say on each of these five in upcoming editions, not least
because in some of them the DD is not yet up to the level at which I’d be confident about
pulling the trigger. However, at this point I’m now confident enough to present them to the
readership as real and live trade options that suit the new backdrop in the metals and resource
sector. So without further ado…
Superior Gold (SGI.v): All the leverage to gold you need
We begin today’s overview of five live new prospects with a name that’s already seen exposure
here at The IKN Weekly, Superior Gold (SGI.v). Here’s our standard topbox with some basic
company structure for SGI in 2022:
Shares out: 122.9m
Options: 6.3m
Warrants: Zero
Incentive shares (DSU etc): 0.9m
Fully diluted: 130.2m
Current share price: C$0.95
Market Cap: C$110.6m
Approx cash per S/O: 18c
All prices are in US Dollars unless stated. Forex U$0.80=CAD$1
By way of potted history, I bought shares in SGI in April 2018 on the expectation it would make
a go of its Plutonic mine in Australia, a mature mine it bought a few months before with a view
to revitalizing its prospects and making it into a 100k/annum operation. Things didn’t go well
with the trade, SGI never managed to hit the run rate it promised and I gave up the ghost on
the trade in October 2019, taking a hefty percentage loss in the process. More fool me etc, but
things continued to go badly for SGI and in July 2020, the CEO at the time Chris Bradbrook was
fired as part of a Strategic Review. The company was left in the hands of interim CEO Tamara
Brown, a competent mining person but from the financial side of the deck, rather than being a
hands-on miner. The C-suite issue was finally resolved in May 2021 with the hiring of current
CEO Chris Jordaan, who took a broom to the way in which SGI went about mining Plutonic and
added a new brains trust in order to come up with a better long-term plan.
Since then SGI has made steady progress under CEO Jordaan and, long story short, he and his
new brains trust are why SGI is back in the centre of The IKN Weekly house radar. At the
standard house forex SGI this weekend has a market cap of U$88.5m (the company reports in
USD) and for that you are getting a lot of mine.
6

The original plan for this week was to make a full feature of SGVI and provide a quick sketch of
the other four companies now identified as live investment prospects but, as the weekend of
writing progressed, it became clear that a better way forward would be to write up a decent
background on all five. Also, the dynamics of SGI’s 1q22 mean there’s not a big rush to get the
full analysis out and I strongly suspect we’ll get a better entry point in the next few weeks than
its current C$0.95 share price, so instead today I’m going to use just a few datapoints from its
current financials to lay out the investment thesis and bring on the deeper details in another
edition. The best hack on the long-term development at SGI is its gold production and sales
chart, as we see what the Plutonic mine used to produce before SGI bought it in 2017, we also
see how it only managed to keep pace with its original guidance of over 100k oz/annum for a
couple of quarters in 2018. After that came the slump and the issues that saw my original
investment fail, a combination of grade and strip rate problems that saw production drop as low
as 15,000/oz per quarter by 2020.
SGI gold production and sales
7
25302 10812 35391 63802 92002 04981
79752 24852
50391 40522
73932
00971
99881
05861
63551 29451 55851
83571
99091 28291 34112 00091 00022 00022 00022
30000
27500 25000
22500
20000
17500
15000
12500
10000
7500
5000
2500
0
61q4 71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 tse22q1 tse22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
Oz Au
Au prod
Au sold
source: SGI data
To the right of the above chart we also add in our conservatively pitched 2022 production
guidance for each quarter, pitched at 19k oz for 1q22, then 22k oz for the rest of the year,
Those guesstimates compare to the official company guidance as seen here:
We total 85,000 oz for 2022, smack in the middle of SGI’s range. As for costs, while Q1 is likely
to be a little lower, for the rest of the year we go with the inflationary flow and assume the top
end of the company’s guidance range. This compares to a gold price assumption of U$1,900/oz
for the rest of 2022 (and that is conservative, as we should now expect higher).
SGI: Avg received Au price vs AISC, per qtr
2100
2000
1900
1800
1700
1600
1500
1400
1300
1200
1100
1000
900
800
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 tse22q1 tse22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
U$/oz
AISC/oz
realized gold price
NB: CUT DOWN Y-AXIS source: SGI
So, 1900 minus 1600 equals 300 and we base our forward financials on that margin. However,
before getting ahead of ourselves a look back at how the margin between received gold price
and AISC evolved between 2018 and 2021 provides plenty of clues about the turnaround SGI

has enjoyed under CEO Jordaan:
In essence SGI at Plutonic isn’t a difficult mine to
cost out, being a classically remote Australian FIFO
(fly in fly out) mine that has a lot of its overall costs
fixed beforehand. Before a quarter begins we have
a good idea of what the company will pay for its
most expensive inputs (salary/wage, fuel, transport,
supplies/reagents etc) so the basic premise of a
successful FIFO is to cover those costs with enough
production and eventual revenues from sales.
As we saw in the first chart above, since its
management change SGI has got its act together and shown gradual, quarter-over-quarter
production improvement, culminating in the 4q21 results of over 21,000 oz. This has set the
mine on a firmer footing, so the new price deck
for gold means the company can take full
advantage of the uptick, as seen in this next
chart (right). COGS at SGI have seen some
inflation (no surprise there) but at some point, a
cost-controlled FIFO operation offers a trading
advantage. Over time costs have kept reasonably
stable, so the new higher gold price means we
see a quick and substantial improvement in gross
margins. We take that one step further in this
chart, which shows how operating income has
improve from the negative levels on 2019 and
2020 to a decent margin that allowed Plutonic to
become self-sustaining in 2021. Our model also
expects operating margins to improve again this year:
SGI: Revenues and operating earnings, per qtr
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
8
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 tse22q1 tse22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
U$m
Revenues Op income
source: company filings
To underscore the central point of SGI’s new attraction, this shows operating income per share:
SGI: operating income per share
0.08
0.07
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
0.00
-0.01
-0.02
-0.03
-0.04
-0.05
-0.06
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 tse22q1 tse22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
SGI: margin realized Au vs AISC
400
300
200
100
0
-100
-200
-300
-400
U$
source: SGI filings, IKN ests
Please also note that the forecast 7c/share is in the SGI reported currency of US Dollars, or
81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4
U$/oz
source: SGI filings, IKN ests
SGI: Revenues vs Costs
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 tse22q1 tse22q2 tse22q3 tse22q4
U$m
Revenues COGS
source: company filings

around CAD$0.09 per share per quarter which, on a forward basis, would indicate a
Price/Earnings ratio of just 2.6X at today’s 95c
share price (right). That’s remarkably cheap and
considering how SGI has transformed under its new
CEO and team from a sketchy and somewhat
unreliable producer to one that has shown reliable
and incremental growth, as well as the happy habit
of hitting guidance on a regular basis, this stock
price now looks like a true undervalued gem.
However, as mentioned at the top of this brief
outline I think there’s every chance that we could
get a better entry point in the days and weeks
ahead. That’s because SGI in 1q22 is due to shut
down for 14 days for scheduled maintenance and,
as a result, is unlikely to deliver a set of sparkling
1q22 production or financial results. So I’m biding my time on an entry but that could be my
stupid mistake, as there’s no doubt about the value on offer in this small but newly trustworthy
company thanks to the margin gold now brings to its financials.
Meridian Mining (MNO.v): A world class copper/gold deposit in the making
We begin with our standard topbox, showing the share structure of MNO this weekend:
Shares out: 158.41m
Options: 14.88m
Warrants: 21.12m
Incentive award shares: 6.59m
Fully diluted shares: 201m
Current share price: C$0.88
Market Cap: C$139.4m
Approx cash per S/O: 24c
All prices are in Canadian Dollars unless stated. Forex U$0.80=CAD$1
In 2022 to date we’ve followed MNO via the Copper Basket segment, the idea being to gauge
development of the deposit as well as keeping a close eye on the way it has traded. Since its
IPO last year, the stock has done this…
…which shows how it was fast out the blocks on an effective marketing campaign, reaching as
high as C$1.30 before stepping back to trade around (and mostly below) the C$1.00 level so far
this year. We can therefore say that the initial excitement and shine has come off the share
price, all while the company has begun to deliver results of its development program to market.
Not an unusual situation for a hyped-up Canadian exploreco, but in this case the disconnect
isn’t due to disappointing numbers. Quite the contrary in fact, as the more MNO tells us about
its flagship Cabaçal copper-gold Volcanic Massive Sulphide (VMS) project in Mato Grosso, Brazil
9

the better it looks.
The theory used by MNO when picking up the project is that the old underground Cabaçal
copper/gold underground mine had excellent potential to become a large open pit mine. In
many respects, Cabaçal is a classic VMS deposit and up to now, workings have been
underground as miners chased the higher grading structures down, leaving behind the larger
tonnage of the VMS. However and unlike most VMS lenses, this one sits very close to surface
and means the relatively (and only that) lower grade is eminently economic if mined out at a
larger scale. Today we are simplifying the story greatly, but the area around the old Cabaçal
workings has a historic (i.e. not 43-101 compliant) resource of around 22m tonnes grading
0.6% copper and 0.6 g/t gold. As that compared well to just about any copper/gold open pit
operation around the world, the attraction was obvious.
However as the project has developed we on the outside now see what the insiders probably
saw from the getgo (or at least hoped they would see). New and smarter drilling has begun to
demonstrate that grades and lengths of mineralization are not only better and longer for
copper, but old drill programs largely missed the amount of gold at Cabaçal at mostly shallow
depths. Not only that, but systematic drilling along
strike has shown how the Cabaçal VMS system
extends far beyond the central areas of old mine
workings, such as the Northwest Extension zone
seen here, located unsurprisingly just to the NW of
the best understood mine area. Recent results as
seen on this visual include long VMS intercepts that
are surprisingly high on gold grade compared to
previous knowledge of the deposit. Also, please
note the small map in the top right of the visual
that shows the larger trend and MNO’s concession,
compared to its zone of exploration today. The
potential along this belt is nothing short of vast.
The reason my interest has moved up several levels
in the last few weeks is due to the drill results
returned by MNO that have improved enormously
on historical returns. These results have enlarged
the potential economic zone greatly, the best case
in point today being the NW Zone. The reason is
that MNO is drilling smarter than previous
operators and the best hack I’ve found on this
subject is the diagram below, found on slide 18 of
its latest corporate presentation. Historic drill
campaigns used vertical holes that largely missed the sub-vertical gold structures, ones that
MNO’s recent holes such as 054 here pick up. The result is assay results such as the latest
headline on March 7th, where hole CD‐094 returned 64.3m of 1.9% CuEq (0.7% Cu, 1.9g/t Au,
2.6g/t Ag) starting at 22m depth. Those grades would make for a strongly economic
underground mine, here were talking near-surface and amenable to low cost bulk mining.
10

The company is cashed up for 2022, has an intensive drill program ahead and it’s worth
mentioning at this point how the main zone the NW Extension are just two of seven formal
targets (as well as over a dozen other high priority zones for further exploration) that MNO has
at Cabaçal. However, the company recognizes it needs to deliver some sort of initial resource
estimate to give the market an idea of what it has and at present, that’s slated for delivery in
Q3 of this year, perhaps around August or September. As the location was an old mine,
variables such as recoveries (excellent for both main paying metals) and metallurgy (also
optimum, with a 26% copper conc, with nearly half the gold free milling and the other reporting
to the conc) are largely understood, so it wouldn’t take much more to get from MRE to PEA
status. As for the potential, even at 0.6% copper and 0.6 g/t gold an open pit mine shows very
strong theoretical economics, but what stands out is the way the tonnage is improving rapidly
and will allow a mine plan that moves larger amounts of rock. A recent corporate presentation
webinar saw the MNO team supposing an open pit measuring 2km in length and running the
grades we are seeing at a strip rate of around 2.5/1 and at this early stage today, its best not
to scare you with the house Excel model of how impressive the economics of a mine like that
would be, I’d be accused of pumping the stock too hard. Suffice to say that any PEA build on
the back of this VMS deposit.
This intro has expanded and gone into more detail than I expected, which is probably due to
my own enthusiasm about this company and story. Coming soon, MNO will get its own
dedicated analysis including price target and recommendation, hopefully this introductory note
has set the scene and has pricked your own interest in the stock.
Newcore Gold (NCAU.v): Cheap, big and simple
Our second introductory note on the new ideas this week is on Newcore Gold (NCAU.v) and
again, we kick off with the corporate structure topbox:
Shares out: 120.6m
Options: 9.9m
Warrants: Zero
Incentive award shares: 2.0m
Fully diluted shares: 132.5m
Current share price: C$0.51
Market Cap: C$61.51m
Approx cash per S/O: 7c
All prices are in Canadian Dollars unless stated. Forex U$0.80=CAD$1
NCAU is the owner of the Enchi gold project in Ghana, West Africa and among the medium-
scale gold explorecos developing projects around the world, this one stands out as it ticks all
the boxes we need in our new market environment:
 Good address and safe jurisdiction. Ghana is arguably the best place to go mining in West
Africa, with a stable democracy and a strong economy that has mining, and particularly
gold mining, as a main activity (gold is the country’s number one export by dollar value).
 A simple project with robust economics. Its PEA on Enchi last year demonstrates its
economic potential. It’s a proposed gold oxide open pit heap leach project, with a
straightforward mine plan and no obvious red flags and a reasonably low capex hurdle of
under U$100m, that may have seen some inflation since then, but shouldn’t be a
significant hurdle.
 Growth upside. Though the PEA is largely in the inferred category, NCAU has not stopped
drilling and is currently in the middle of a 90,000m drill program that combines infill and
out-step holes that will move resource to M+I category and expand the current mineralized
footprint.
 Price: At around U$50m, even before the likely resource expansion you are getting ounces
11

of gold for under U$20/oz in-situ. Or if you prefer, a market cap at 0.18X of current NPV.
While I’d agree that there are other projects out there with cheaper in-situ ounces, they
rarely come with the combination of good jurisdiction, straightforward mining and clear
project upside that isn’t factored into today’s price.
The potential downsides include absolute size, as seen in this table:
The current 90,000m drill program is important, as the current 1.4m oz resource isn’t the
largest out there and while the deposit shows plenty of potential on strike and at depth, NCAU
needs to deliver on its potential and add ounces. A deposit that moves above 2m oz would
become a more attractive proposition for an eventual buyer and mine developer. The other
potential downside is the one facing most mining
projects these days, that of inflation. According to the
NCAU PEA last year (we quote), “A $1,650/ounce gold
price, open pit with heap leach operation was used to
determine the cut-off grade of 0.2 g/t Au. Mining cost
of $1.40 for oxide, $2.10 for transition, and $2.60 for
fresh rock per mined tonne, and G&A and milling cost
of $6.83/milled tonne.”
To this end, I have a conference call booked with
NCAU CEO Luke Alexander this week. Therefore
please expect more details on NCAU and a valuation
on the company as from next weekend in IKN671.
Electra Battery Materials (ELBM.v): Future Facing and then some
In the same way, we begin with our standard corporate structure topbox:
Shares out: 558.0m
Options: 18.8m
Warrants: 22.9m
Fully diluted shares: 606m
Current share price: C$0.295
Market Cap: C$164.61m
Approx cash per S/O: 10c
All prices are in US Dollars unless stated. Forex U$0.80=CAD$1
Electra Battery Materials (ELBM.v) is the new name for First Cobalt (ex-FCC) and a company
that has been around for many years. Until recently, the company focus has been its Iron Creek
cobalt project located in Idaho USA, but in a recent pivot it has changed its focus to become
the main company behind a new battery recycling project now under construction in Ontario,
12

Canada. Reasons to like this stock:
 Management: CEO Trent Mell is an exemplary leader in the junior space and has assembled
a strong technical team to move Battery Materials Park forward. As the years roll on I’ve
come to value managerial integrity above all other inputs and in this ELBM passes with flying
colours.
 Development: Battery Materials Park is permitted, fully financed and currently under
construction, with first stage production expected by the end of 2022 and expansion to
positive free cash flow in 2023.
 Timing: While not a classic mining story per se, ELBM offers us the epitome of a Forward
Facing project and company. While there’s plenty of details and variables, its basic business
model is to take recycled batteries and recycle the contained nickel, cobalt, lithium etc. The
market is readily available and obviously in growth mode, making Battery Minerals Park the
right project at the right time.
 Iron Creek: Its original asset, the company’s Iron Creek cobalt project in Idaho has fallen
into second tier status and these days, ELBM gets virtually zero equity recognition from it.
With “future facing resources” now all the rage and cobalt in the vanguard of metals
required by that hungry future, there’s value waiting to be unlocked here. At the moment
ELBM seems happy enough to let Iron Creek lay fallow, but a modest development budget
including some drilling could wake its prospects up and attract interest, perhaps from an
outright buyer, perhaps as a base for a royalty deal or (more likely), a spinco that unlocks
value directly for shareholders and keeps the asset under the control of the current
management team.
As for the potential downsides, for my money there are two risks and they’re somewhat related:
 Execution risk: To its great credit, ELBM has avoided being trapped in a EPC or EPCM contract
with a third party contractor or suffer quickly rising input costs that bend its construction plans
out of shape (see Argonaut at Magino for further details), but this good start doesn’t
guarantee success and the company needs to deliver on its construction plans within
reasonable margins of error.
 Financial structure: To build its machine, ELBM has taken out debt and also partly relied on
industry middleman giant Glencore as a source of funding, in return for a minority off-take on
production. The debt is done on friendly terms As anyone who has been round the junior
producer block knows, getting into bed with the Glencores or Trafiguras of this world at the
funding stage is a trappy business and can lead to
one’s own margins being crushed. Along with its
debt, ELBM is under the obligation to deliver on
time and in budget, then go through its 2022 and
2023 ramp up in reasonably smooth order.
Summing up, ELBM has a lot going for it and is now
on the active list of potential trades, first and
foremost because it is run by a quality team that’s
fully aligned with shareholders. In a future edition
we’ll go into the weeds on its financial structure and
consider the risks, as well as setting a price target for
a company with a functional battery recycling
business in 2023.
Western Copper & Gold (WRN.to): The time is right for big Canadian copper
The final highlighted company of our new five is the easiest to outline, though we begin with
the same corporate structure overview:
13

Shares out: 151.43m
Options: 7.52m
Warrants: 1.5m
Fully diluted shares: 160.444m
Current share price: C$2.41
Market Cap: C$364.95m
Approx cash per S/O: 33c
All prices are in US Dollars unless stated. Forex U$0.80=CAD$1
Western Copper & Gold (WRN.to) and its flagship Casino project in the Canadian Yukon has
been around as a large-scale copper project for almost as long as I’ve been covering these
junior names. I have clear memories of the way it was successfully marketed as a “bigger is
better” low-grade high tonnage open pit operation back in 2010 and 2011. It reached C$4 and
$4.50 prices at the time, but when large-scale high capex bulk tonnage projects went out of
fashion (2012 onward) the WRN share price fell off a cliff and for many years bounced around
at prices often lower than $1.00. However, all that time WRN played the long game and once it
had shown its potential economics in a PEA in 2013, the company pursued a somewhat
different strategy as its copper sector peers. Long story short, it did nothing.
Well that’s not totally fair, as over the years WRN did done its share of exploration and resource
definition, as well as work on key aspects of its project such as road access. But at the same
time, it’s never been a company desperate to be out there in the face of the market, desperate
to Do Something in an attempt to constantly impress. Instead, it has in broad terms hunkered
down and bided its time, perhaps waiting for the moment when market conditions better suit its
project. And that seems to be today, which is why WRN is now back on the active trade radar
list. The Casino project has the air of one finally getting its ducks into line as the right type of
project at the right time. Reasons include:
Address: The Canadian Yukon is the type of low risk jurisdiction now coveted by major mining
companies keen to keep their overall political risk profile as low as possible.
Size: The current resource count dates from 2020 and looks like this:
Those overall totals include rock that would be direct heap leach while other parts would be
milled. There are also five distinct phases of production delineated over its total life of mine and
buried in that overall table, but there’s’ nothing wrong about handling a global total and WRN at
Casino. It’s always been a low-grade deposit and one of the reasons I’ve always turned my
nose up at ownership, but again we see the market moving toward this type of project. What
Casino lacks in grade, it makes up with absolute size and with recent news now making low-
cost mining a reality its 10.9m lbs of all category copper and 21.1m oz of all category gold
makes Casino an attractive option.
Access: After many years of deliberation and politicking, the long-mooted road is now being
built in to connect the project zone directly to the town of Carmacks, which in turn provides
directly access to the region’s major Skagway seaport. The jointly funded (ERN and Canadian
government) road has a C$130m budget and is fully funded, but the ticket price is the minor
issue; the major success was finally seeing political will change and the permits awarded.
Construction started just a few weeks ago and its completion opens up the Casino project zone
to economic mining projects.
Permitting: The final piece in the current puzzle is not provided by WRN, but neighbour
Newmont (NEM). When NRM bought out Goldcorp most observers expect the major to dispose
14

of the small but robustly economic Coffee project that came with its purchase, but despite its
small size compared to the world’s number one precious metals miner’s market cap, NEM held
onto Coffee and went through the process already underway with the local First Nations
peoples as well as Yukon’s YESAB environmental permitting body to get permits for Coffee. Last
week, as seen in this NR (3), the Coffee project got its
permits and along with the road now being
constructed into the zone, is now for all intents and
purposes a shovel-ready project. The permit award
shows the willingness of stakeholders to work together
and promote mining projects in this remote region of
Canada and along with the recently permitted and
funded road, Coffee’s location almost literally next
door to Casino makes combine the two projects and
turning the modest Coffee gold mine into a major
copper/gold complex a logical idea.
At its current C$364m market cap WRN is not a cheap
stock, but on a per lb copper basis it would probably sell for double its current price when the
takeover offer comes in (perhaps from NEM, or perhaps from minority owner and strategic
partner Rio Tinto (RTZ)), when considering its 11Bn lb copper size and substantial gold kicker.
That buyout price would also be a subset of the nominal U$2.6Bn capex (now likely higher due
to market forces) that the eventual operator would need to spend in order to put Casino into
operation as a standalone, notwithstanding synergies with Coffee. Now the road is being driven
into the zone, it’s only a matter of time before Casino comes off the drawing board and
becomes reality, the question is when and at what price the deal is done.
Stocks to Follow
Another weird week. Normally, reporting just two winners and three UNCH from 15 stocks
wouldn’t be at all pleasant. In this case, the two winners were the Top Picks (MAI.v, RIO.v) and
two of the three UNCH stocks (ARG.to, QCCU.v, TMQ) were the heavier weighted positions
Amerigo and QC Copper. As for the ten losers, most were small positions and the only really
heavy hit was taken on Discovery Silver (DSV.v down 14.0%)
With the removal of Trilogy Metals (TMQ), the list is down to 14 open positions, one less than
our self-imposed maximum.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.59 181.0% $1.14 tgt Aug'20, #1 idea
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v STR BUY C$0.83 22-Apr-18 C$0.78 -6.0% $1.30 1st tgt, building now
Recommended stocks (in order of preference)
Amerigo Res ARG.to STR BUY C$1.36 12-Dec-21 C$1.87 37.5% Strong Q4 & FY22 guidance
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v STR BUY C$0.275 25-Apr-21 C$0.27 -1.8% Now drilling. Easy hold
Discovery Silver DSV.v STR BUY C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.66 -6.2% Best Ag play, 1st tgt $2.75
McEwen Mining MUX hold/sell U$0.89 2-Jan-22 U$0.875 -1.7% will close in April
Element 29 ECU.v BUY C$0.59 6-Mar-22 C$0.58 -1.7% New Cu exploreco position
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v SPEC BUY C$0.72 16-May-21 C$0.95 31.9% Assay catalyst in Q1 and Q2
Strategic Metals SMD.v BUY C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.38 -9.5% Canada land bet+Zn in FY22
Chesapeake Gold CKG.v SPEC BUY C$3.26 20-Feb-22 C$3.62 11.0% Leverage trade on $1.9k/oz Au
Altiplano Metals APN.v SPEC BUY C$0.31 17-Sep-21 C$0.285 -8.1% Cheap entry, 1q22 re-rate
Palamina Corp PA.v SPEC BUY C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.155 -47.5% Au expl in S.Peru
Minera IRL MIRL.cse hold C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.08 -59.0% CEO change will move stock
15

Long-term non-mining hold
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.67 6-Dec-20 C$0.57 -14.9% LT bet, adding slowly
Closed in 2022 closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Jan'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.78 15.9% Sold 1/2 position in rebalance
Copper Mountain CMMC.to Feb'22 C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.70 8.8% Sold rest on FY22 guidance
Trilogy Metals TMQ Mar'22 U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.04 -41.3% killed by US permit reversal
2015 to 2021 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on a few of our covered stocks:
Trilogy Metals (TMQ): POSITION CLOSED. An unpleasant moment done, loss cauterized
and realized. TMQ came forward with more news on KPMG drilling (all in order) and an update
on its suspended permit for the access road. The new two-week delay comes from the
company’s side, as they try to work out the best way to challenge the Biden administration’s
decision to double back on its award. However, it also smacks of a conflict that is quickly
descending to legal levels and if so, there’s less chance of an early settlement. The market
barely reacted to the news and within a few pennies, the stock traded flat all week.
The plan now is simple, put what had turned into dead money to better use in another place.
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v): Whisper it quietly…
…but the Top Pick and long-term stick-in-the-mud is showing signs of out-performing the
market this year. Don’t expect any flashy NRs or hype from RIO.v, the company is 100%
focused on moving through its permitting procedure with a view to May this year as the time
when the key permits will pop out the other end of the government bureaux. But however
quiet, the stock is starting to pick up some bidders and the way it returned to the levels seen
during the gold spike indicates accumulation, rather than simple trading.
Minera Alamos (MAI.v): Meanwhile, our other Top Pick (and personal largest holding) MAI
continues to flatline at its tight 58c to 60c trading range, even as company President Doug
Ramshaw continues to accumulate shares via insider purchases on the open market.
16

His latest purchase of 100,000 shares on Wednesday puts his personal total oat a little over
6.5m shares and it’s impressive to consider all those were made via transparent, open market
purchases. President Ramshaw was on duty on the webinar conference circuit last week and
the messaging is now changing. Though Santana still hasn’t declared commercial production,
the company is giving the air of a fait accompli by shifting its narrative toward its next project
and build-out at Cerro de Oro. While I personally would prefer not to jump the gun, the MAI
marketing strategy is smart enough and pushes the line of how CdO can be up and running in
just one year on receipt of the necessary permits, and how the permitting track is already
advanced. The other thing to look out for are new resource counts for both Santana and Cerro
de Oro though, of the two, Santana is the less important as a global total. We know the project
and land package has several zones from which the company should be able to drill and prove
up gold grades as time goes by.
Element 29 Resources (ECU.v): I have a conference call in with ECU.v tomorrow Monday,
with only the minor nuisance of not being able to
reach a mutual time before this edition a negative.
Expect view and thoughts next weekend in IKN671.
Last week’s trading saw some modest selling on
Monday (a single seller?) and after that, an ECU that
remained well off the vast majority of investor radars.
That’s one of the reasons to like the stock at this
point, of course, but it also means there’s no need to
pay 60c or over for a position until it shows with the
drill results from its current Flor de Cobre program.
QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v): The mooted NR mentioned last weekend showed up on
Wednesday morning March 16th and once again the news (4) was on-point about the progress
at Opemiska. QCCU reported significant mineralization from five holes, with two of them making
the “100m of 0.42 % CuEq and 93m of 0.45% CuEq” NR headline. Once again we see the
company delivering on its plan to get the low-hanging fruit from Opemiska, perhaps the best
example being hole 126 cut through the Southern Springer zone and here’s the map
representation from last week’s NR:
Last year in its drilling to get to the Maiden Resource Estimate, QCCU’s plan was to concentrate
on the areas around the old high-grade veins that were mined out by previous underground
work. That created the “Vein And Halo” (for want of a better phrase) resource that captured the
grades around the old veins, but came with plenty of undefined waste areas. But once the
results were in, they also told the company it didn’t need to rely on a high strip ratio and,
17

theoretically at least, it would be able to convert zones without drilling from “waste” (that would
need to be stripped and discarded) and into mineralization that would run as part of a large
open pit operation as long as they found enough grade in those areas to justify their inclusion.
This is why the company is now drilling those apparent barren zones of Opemiska and sure
enough, while 0.42% CuEq and 0.45% CuEq aren’t gangbuster holes, they don’t need to be.
QCCU is are finding enough grade to allow them to become part of a larger and more coherent
resource model. Hence the company now talks up its larger areas of “mineralized envelope”
that include last year’s results, plus the ones showing from this drill program, instead of
selective “vein and halo” that would have needed a lot more stripping on the day it were mined
from an operating asset. The above visual shows the concept, as the drill cut through a known
zone of indicated but also returned grade on either side, thereby increasing its volume and
lowering the theoretical strip rate.
Back in 2021, grade was strong enough to come in around 4x the cut-off. That allows QCCU to
target and then include lower grading zones this year and holes such as 126 above can quickly
add meaningful tonnage to the overall resource, while at the same time lowering strip rate and
costs (which also means the cut-off itself may go lower). What’s missing is getting this idea
across to its audience, because when a company runs its drill program and gets the type of
returns it was hoping for, only for the market to continually shrug its shoulders, the missing
piece of the share price puzzle isn’t found at the drill rig or in the assay lab.
We’ve now had three “we are turning waste into ore” news releases and while I, as a
shareholder and commentator, am happy with progress, as a speculator and investor I am not.
At some point the market will “get it”, the significance of these results will become apparent
and QCCU’s dirt cheap share price will begin to move up, my fear these days is that the move
won’t happen before the updated Resource Estimate and that’s not due until 4q22.
Chesapeake Gold (CKG.v): From the
perplexing to the simple, as CKG is one of the
most straightforward trade set-ups on the open
stocks list at the moment. Metates is a known
entity as far as its ounce count goes and being
long here is all about grabbing the coattails of
an improving gold price deck via a highly
leveraged play. As the chart (right) shows, we
at least have the entry timing in the right
ballpark:
Traded volume remains low and aside the
cross-sector interest when gold spiked to
U$2,080/oz, has been the missing ingredient. If
ands when bidders show up for CKG there’s very little overhead friction until we get back to the
C$4.50-or-so levels seen this time last year.
Aldebaran Resources (ALDE.v): The most salient comments from the appearances (plural)
made by ALDE during last week’s webinar attack were:
1) Strong hints that the company is happy with what they are seeing from the drillbit
2) Confirmation that ALDE will run a financing soon
Which is all fair enough. ALDE is now set up for its run, all that’s missing is the catalyst of solid
exploration results.
Discovery Silver (DSV.v): We got news from DSV Monday and sustained selling in the stock
all week, culminating in a dumpage on Friday that may be connected to ETF rebalancing.
First the news of a new CFO at the company (5), one Anthony Esplin, who comes in with vast
experience of large-scale mining open pit operations from his time at Newmont, including the
18

key phases of mine construction. DSV told his desk on Friday that, as well as his general CFO
duties, Esplin will be the point man for the upcoming PFS (and eventually the FS) and run the
day-to-day management of the process, which makes total sense. All in all, an optimum hire
that speaks volumes for the quality of Cordero.
As for the selling, it smacks of déjà vu all over again
as we saw this same type of weakness in September
2021 when the stock was unduly hammered into the
ETF rebalancing season, all on high volume and only
to recover in good style afterward. Put that combo
together and all a silver price around U$25/oz and
you have the recipe for a fliptrade, for those so
inclined. One of the advantages to buying quality
companies and stories is the confidence they offer
when near-term market moments come around, such
as this. As DSV has a history of rebounding in style
after such hits, the reward potential looks strong compared to the risk.
Amerigo Resources (ARG.to): Unchanged on the week, ARG was one of the few copper
juniors to join in the rally seen in the senior copper
sector and improve out of the early week trough.
The company’s Normal Course Issuer Bid (“NCIB”) to
share buyback program is obviously adding backbone
to the share price and it’s quite a thing to reflect on
how, in so many other juniors, one of the concerns is
to watch insiders as they sell into a strong price and
cash in their positions are your expense. Here at ARG
we are actually competing with the company
treasury on the bid.
The Copper Basket
After eleven weeks of 2022, The Copper Basket shows a loss of 5.98% level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/22 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Copper Mtn CMMC.to 3.42 210.166 767.11 3.65 6.7%
2 Western Copper WRN.to 2.00 151.426 364.94 2.41 20.5%
3 Oroco Res OCO.v 2.04 192.689 335.28 1.74 -14.7%
4 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.77 88.028 334.51 3.80 0.8%
5 Nevada Copper NCU.to 0.71 448.437 309.42 0.69 -2.8%
6 Hot Chili HCH.v 1.53 109.223 141.99 1.30 -15.0%
7 Meridian Min MNO.v 1.18 153.735 135.29 0.88 -25.4%
8 Regulus Res. REG.v 1.06 101.845 109.99 1.08 1.9%
9 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.84 114.495 108.77 0.95 13.1%
10 Kutcho Copper KC.v 0.88 103.94 64.44 0.62 -29.5%
11 C3 Metals CCCM.v 0.16 645.379 58.08 0.09 -43.8%
12 Doré Copper DCMC.v 0.79 66.123 54.22 0.82 3.8%
13 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.58 79.24 45.96 0.58 0.0%
14 QC Copper QCCU.v 0.34 129.06 34.85 0.27 -20.6%
15 Coast Copper COCO.v 0.13 41.335 6.20 0.15 15.4%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg -5.98%
The copper stocks had a negative week and this was reflected in our Copper Basket of (mostly)
19

juniors, with just two week-over-week winners from our list of 15 (REG.v, DCMC.v) and four
others remaining unchanged (NCI.to, HCH.ax,
CCCM.v, ACCU.v). That leaves nine losers and while The Copper Basket 2022, weekly evolution
4%
most of those weren’t heavy losses, the week was
2%
exemplified by prices marked down and few bidders
0%
attracted. Biggest loser was Meridian Mining (MNO.v
-2%
down 12.0%) which is now at a price that looks an
-4%
attractive entry point to this desk. The only other
-6%
loser of note was Western Copper & Gold (WRN.to),
-8%
which lost 6.6% and suggests the IKN kiss of death
-10%
is working as well as ever.
The same way as many other sub-sectors, copper’s
week was marked by the FOMC decision and market
reaction and in our case, the bullish reaction of
copper-the-metal and the large copper producer
stocks, compared to the small juniors tracked here.
This chart of spot copper and the main copper
producer ETF (COPX) shows how the market bought
into both all week, but there wasn’t much trickledown
to the lower tiers on show.
This chart of the Comex near-dated futures contract
offers plenty of evidence for copper price strength
over the medium-term as well:
Compare that reality to the wishful thinking of copper bears earlier in the week, exemplified by
this report dated Monday March 14th (6) that starts like this:
March 14 (Reuters) - Prices of industrial metals fell on Monday as diplomatic efforts to
resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict calmed supply-disruption fears, while demand
concerns in top consumer China also weighed on the market.
We also got our latest edition of rent-a-quote from this week’s desk expert, one Dan Smith:
Dan Smith, managing director at Commodity Market Analytics. “Copper market
sentiment is bearish as supplies are starting to ramp up. It shows some rational
thinking."
Oh dear, that didn’t age well. Not only was Mr. Smith handed a copper price rise of over 20c/lb
from the time of his quote to Friday’s close, he also got the reasoning 100% wrong. As you’re
about to see in the weekly inventories section, you can say anything you like about world
copper supply at the moment except that it’s ramping up. But before we get there, we highlight
a dataset that should have appeared in last week’s edition but got edited out for space and
context reasons.
20
ts1naJ ht9naJ ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6bef ht31 ht02 ht72 ht6raM ht31 ht02
source: IKN calcs

The first week of March saw Chile’s Cochilco report on the evolution of C1 cash costs. The
measurements are taken from the 22 largest copper mines in the country that account for
93.7% of the country’s production, so provide an excellent yardstick on how costs are growing
in the sector. The report is on the 3q21 period for C1 costs (NB: not AISC, this the base metals
version of the non-GAAP “mining cash cost” number reported by precious metals companies)
and this is the best overview visual:
The two blue columns are 3q21 and the same quarter of 2020, which show the year-over-year
overall average increase in C1 copper costs from U$1.217/lb to U$1.344/lb, representing a
10.4% Year-over-Year increase in costs. You
will note that this does not include the
reported costs increases felt across the board
in the last quarter of 2021, or the first two
months of this year. As for a breakdown, this
Spanish language table from the report (7)
shows how that 12.7c/lb was added (right).
The vocab isn’t too tough but to make sure,
first we get by-product credits that took a big
8.9c/lb from copper C1 costs, thanks to the
rise in credit metals prices from the big
porphyry copper operations that dominate the
Chilean copper scene (e.g. gold, silver, moly, etc). Without these, the costs increases would
have been a lot greater. Then the other credit, as TC/RC costs dropped a modest 0.4c/lb. After
that come the true cost additions, the list from top to bottom:
 Electricity (added 1.3c/lb to C1 copper costs)
 Transport (added 1.4c/lb to C1 copper costs)
 H2SO4 (+1.5c/lb)
 Fuel costs (+3.1c/lb)
 Raw materials/supplies (+4.6c/lb)
 Other costs/services (+4.7c/lb)
 Salaries (+5.3c/lb)
The big cost increases are blamed on the combination of higher salaries, a Chilean Peso that is
up 8% compared to the same period of last year, then price hikes for fuel, transport and
sulphuric acid.
It’s time for our weekly look at world copper inventory data. It’s weeks like this one that make
the decision to follow this dataset all worthwhile because hooboy, check this out:
 World aggregate stocks from the three systems dropped by 24,599 metric tonnes (mt),
on the week, when by all rights and in any March of any other year, the number should
be rising fast.
 Last week’s data from Shanghai was framed as big news, it pales in comparison to this
weekend. SHFE copper Stocks dropped by 32,162mt to close Friday at 129,506mt and
21

this is as bullish as possible. In fact, it’s less about being bullish now and more about
watching suppliers nervous about covering end-user physical contracts and sourcing
metal from wherever they can. Hit the red light and let the sirens sound, China is
running out of copper quicktime.
 What’s more, the LME joined in with the bullish price news. While stocks did increase
by a modest 5,300mt (normal for the time of year), underneath the headline the
amount of stock under cancelled warrant rose by nearly 30% to close at 23,500mt. At
other moments and in normal markets, the cancelled warrant number can be gamed by
market participants trying to represent strong demand, only to roll over their position
(sometimes indefinitely). That’s less likely here and even if so, will shorts dare to
oppose under these market circumstances). Friday’s close was 79,500mt, still close to
the all-time low hit three weeks ago.
 The Comex had a quieter time of it, with stocks improving by 2,263mt to close at
65,372mt. No signal.
Here’s the dedicated SHFE inventory chart and to the right, the annual spike has indeed flamed
out way too early in the annual cycle:
Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2014 to date
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
22
31'13ceD ht9 ht81 ht72 ht5tco ht41 dn22 dr3yam ht21 ht02 ht92 ht7bef ht71 ht62 ht4peS ht31 ht92 ht9 ht81 ht72 7102
ht5von
ht41 ht52 ht01 ht91 ht82 9102
ht6naJ
ht71 ht62 ht4gua ht31 dn22 0202ts1ram ht01 ht91 ht72 0202ht6ced ht41 ht52 1202ht4luj ht21 ts12 2202ht03naj
Mt Cu
|
source: Cochilco
The comments time last weekend tried keep a damper on speculation that the SHFE was
peaking, but it’s extremely difficult to ignore what the data is saying now. The loss of 32kmt in
March is unheard and comes at the same time cancelled warrants on The LME are shifting
higher. This set-up is as bullish for copper prices as it could be, so if you were impressed by the
hoo-hah set off by LME trading over the rather small nickel contract recently, imagine what it
would look like if we saw a successful short squeeze on copper.
Sound like a market fantasy? Well maybe, but there are enough components in place to at least
consider the possibility that some or other large player corners the market in the way we saw in
the smaller and less liquid LME nickel contract two weeks ago. You have the LME as price
discovery central, you have its rolling contracts running on three month lapses while other
markets such as SHFE and Comex offers one month expiries, you also recently saw LME
deliveries at a greater level than inventory stocks for the first time ever. Even an attempt at as
short squeeze on the LME would send the market into a turmoil and with the ongoing nickel pit
SNAFU as evidence of the chaos it would cause, there have to be a few short positions
considering a pre-emptive cover. It’s only a possible at this point, but a copper squeeze has
more chance any #silversqueeze and the bunkum of last year, that’s an easy call because it has
real fundamentals to back it up, not just large doses of hopium.
Now for notes on two stocks in our 2022 basket:
Oroco Resources (OCO.v): From Friday post-close to Friday post-close, OCO’s price action
held up well against its financing news, priced at $1.70 per unit. Therefore and considering the
flat price action as well as the investor support this stock enjoys, it wasn’t a surprise to see a

Part Deux NR to this financing, also Friday post-close:
“…due to investor demand, and further to its news release of March 10, 2022, it is
increasing its non-brokered private placement from 8,000,000 units to 10,500,000 units
at a price of 1.70 per unit.”
The units are on the same terms, comprising of one share plus a juicy full warrant at a C$2.40
strike and two year shelf life.
When a company milks investor sentiment hard
it tends to depress its near-term share price
action and those long OCO shouldn’t expect an
immediate rebound once this extended
placement is closed. However and in this case,
it’s probably wise of OCO to secure as much
treasury as possible in one shot, despite the
terms of the deal adding even more warrant
overhang at that $2.40 level. Once
development NRs from Santo Tomas begin
again, this deal and its upsizing will be
forgotten.
Kutcho Copper (KC.v): The 2022 year-to-date trading in KC is marked by the before/after of
its deal with Wheaton (WPM) (8) as the title line of the NR, “Kutcho Copper Eliminates Debt and
Expands Partnership with Wheaton Precious Metals” sounded so upbeat at the time, too. A key
part of the deal was to issue 10.5m shares of
KC, which added to its previous position of over
7.5m shares out and means (or probably
meant) WPM owned 15.4% of KC shares out,
which doesn’t even include the warrants
position.
The likelihood that WPM is whacking into the
bid in order to liquidate at least part of its
position is high. A best-guess would be that
WPM at least wants to get under the 10%
related party threshold but whatever the true
reason might be, there’s no point in trying to
catch this falling knife until the selling calms.
The Producer Basket
After eleven weeks of 2022, the Producer Basket shows a gain of 16.85% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/22 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 62.02 797.44 58.98 73.96 19.3%
2 Barrick GOLD 19.00 1779 42.46 23.87 25.6%
3 Franco-Nevada FNV 138.29 191.192 29.56 154.60 11.8%
4 Agnico Eagle AEM 53.14 453.5 27.37 60.36 13.6%
5 Wheaton PM WPM 42.93 450.3 21.51 47.77 11.3%
6 Gold Fields GFI 10.99 887.72 13.84 15.59 41.9%
7 Kinross Gold KGC 5.81 1369.3 7.64 5.58 -4.0%
8 B2Gold BTG 3.93 1055.6 4.68 4.43 12.7%
9 Alamos Gold AGI 7.69 392.503 3.26 8.30 7.9%
10 Sandstorm SAND 6.20 191.4 1.52 7.96 28.4%
All prices and stock quotes in U$ Port. avg 16.85%
23

All ten of our Producer Basket stocks went down last week, from the minor losses taken by
Wheaton (WPM down 0.7%) and Kinross (KGC down 0.9%), to the larger lumps lost by the
recent high-flying Gold Fields (GFI down 6.5%) and Alamos (AGFI down 4.8%). As for the
biggest of the big boys, Barrick lost 2.0% and Newmont lost 3.8%, which awards a battle to
Bristow and could be connected with the company’s marketing on how is plans to generate its
own pipeline of projects and reserves.
The 2022 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
30% comparative to GDX control
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
Barrick Gold (GOLD): GOLD has tended to hog the limelight both here and at the open blog
in 2022, but for the time being I remain unapologetic as it’s certainly the most intriguing major
PM stock out there today. GOLD seems to have its fingers in many pies, the now Africa-centric
company trying to expand globally and even resuming its “We want Canada” line last week in
CEO Bristow’s Annual Report cover note (and unlike the CEO’s cover letter, the one signed off
by Chair Thornton’s was pointedly aimed at the financial world and a division of responsibilities
clearly defined). This desk covered that in this post on the open blog (9) and as is our wont,
focused on Barrick’s efforts in South America.
After being rebuffed in the Kirkland and Great Bear deals, GOLD has been pushing its organic
pipeline angle hard and one of the places it most seems to care about these days is the South
Andean Cordillera, with Argentina high on its shopping list. Projects of note are Pascua Lama
but these days, on the Argentine “Lama” side of the border, but also the big Alturas/Del
Carmen project (also on the Argentine Del Carmen side) and news as seen in Regional Politics
below, the heavy investment it is putting into its Veladero operation along with its partner,
China’s Shandong. And again, located in Argentina.
However, the news out this very morning (10) underscores the global nature of its organic
program. It would seem Reko Diq in Pakistan has got an official green light after a decade of
disputes and legal wrangles between companies and government. Exiting partner Antofagasta
(ANTO.L) has apparently accepted a U$900m cash settlement to walk away, leaving Barrick as
50% owner and operator, with the other 50% held by Pakistani and Balochistan government
bodies. GOLD may get a share price boost
from this news in the days ahead, but it’s
unlikely to be a massive up because as this
report out of Pakistan noted last February 20th
(11) had the deal as all-but done. As for the
prize, Reko Diq’s all-categories 27Bn lbs Cu
and 20.9m oz gold is only the start of the area
play, so no wonder Bristow has been obsessed
with landing the deal. Kudos to him, he seems
to have done it and we now get to see how
much of that presumed success was already
baked into the GOLD price chart.
24
ts1naJ ht9naJ ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6bef ht31 ht02 ht72 ht6ram ht31 ht02
The 2022 Producer Basket: Percentage difference
between GDX benchmark & basket (negative = IKN ahead) 6.0%
5.0%
ikn 4.0%
gdx control
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
source: NYSE, IKN Calcs
J
an 1st
J
an 9t h 1 6th 2 3rd 3 0th
f
eb6t h 1 3th 2 0th 2 7th
m
ar6th 1 3th 2 0th
source: IKN calcs, NYSE data

The TinyCaps List
After eleven weeks of 2022, the TinyCaps show a gain of 7.65% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/22 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Aurelius Min AUL.v 0.24 37.134 11.33 0.305 27.1%
Golden Pursuit GDP.v 0.13 34.638 5.89 0.17 30.8%
Infield Min INFD.v 0.06 48.276 2.17 0.045 -25.0%
Kingfisher Met KFR.v 0.30 84.57 16.91 0.20 -33.3%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.12 57.296 8.02 0.14 16.7%
Manitou Gold MTU.v 0.06 344.47 24.11 0.07 16.7%
Melkior Res MKR.v 0.295 24.011 7.08 0.295 0.0%
Precipitate Gold PRG.v 0.105 129.322 15.52 0.12 14.3%
Signature Res SGU.v 0.07 238.4 21.46 0.09 28.6%
Winshear Gold WINS.v 0.08 61.585 4.93 0.08 0.0%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 7.65%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $20m. They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a
little and allowed sub-U$20m market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, but it was a particularly depressing exercise to trawl through the whole of the TSXV and find companies
that are small enough, but with life in them. The vast majority of sub-$20m stocks are broken stocks, either
traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2020. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
The tinycaps are attracting very little love from
the wider market these days, wafer thin volumes 14% TinyCaps, 2022 weekly tracker
and minor price moves the norm. Our list reflects 12%
this sad reality (which, after all, is the main 10%
objective) and last week the three winners 8%
(MTU.v, SGU.v, WINS.v) and two unchanged 6%
stocks (LMS.v, MKR.v) were beaten on the 4%
headcount by the five losers (AUL.v, GDP.v, 2%
INFD.v, KFR.v, PRG.v). The 14.3% lost by 0%
Precipitate was the only move meriting even -2%
slight attention and the overall basket average
dropped a couple of tenths. That’s all she wrote.
Kingfisher Metals (KFR.v): So another quiet and boring list, but the exception that proves to
rule was KFR which plumbed new lows last week
before finding a bottom at 18c and rebounding
somewhat before closing the week down just half
a cent:
Now for sure, one could have made a case for the
ip at the beginning of February to have been a
bottom, or even the one that happened at the
beginning of March (when KFR got sold down
while other gold explorecos rocketed higher), but
a closer look at last week’s action (below) shows
25
dn2naJ ht9
naJ
ht61naJ dr32 ht03 ht6bef ht31 ht02 ht72 ht6ram ht31 ht02
source: IKN calcs, TSX data

the right sort of pattern for a capitulating seller on Wednesday.
As noted last weekend, this tinycap has caught my eye for its current circumstance of being
sold off while moving forward on its exploration and drill plans at a very large and prospective
land package with a great address. Not a stock I’m buying for the moment, but certainly
monitoring its trading to see whether than persistent seller is done or not.
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future
I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
Colombia: It’s set for Petro vs Fico
We set the scene last weekend in “Colombia: No stopping Petro” and with the results of last
weekend’s (equivalent of in Colombia) Primaries to decide which candidate lead which coalition,
we now have a clearer picture of the field for the May 29th Presidential election. The headlines
are for three candidates (12):
 Gustavo Petro, easy winner of the Left wing “Pacto Historico” (Historic Pact) coalition
primary with 4.48m votes cast for his candidacy.
 Sergio Fajardo, winner of the Centrist “Centro Esperanza” (Centre Hope) coalition
nomination with 0.72m votes to his name
 Federico Gutiérrez, who wasn’t a certainly before the weekend but finished clear winner
of the Right wing “Equipo por Colombia” (Team For Colombia) coalition, with almost
2.16m votes to his name and over 54% of the primary votes. For context, before last
weekend polls had it tight between “Fico” and Alex Char, but on the day Char only
managed 0.71m votes.
We mention the physical number of votes in this edition to give an idea of the relative forces
behind each candidate. While last weekend wasn’t the Presidential Round One and those counts
won’t be the same in May, they show how the political right and left have more grassroots
support in this election cycle. It’s also an easy hack on the generally accepted analysis in
Colombia today, that the centre is set to be squeezed by the wings as we move toward May
29th. In fact, the first consolidation came just one day after the votes, when right wing Óscar
Iván Zuluaga stepped down from his candidacy to endorse and ally with Federico Gutiérrez.
Be clear that field isn’t a simple three-horse race; As noted last weekend, the independent wild-
card candidacy of Rodolfo Hernandez is still there and polling between 8% and 13% depending
on which pollster you believe. We also have minor candidates such as Ingrid Betancourt (on a
Green Party-ish ticket) running, but last weekend helped clear the field considerably and we can
now say:
26

 Gustavo Petro is clear favourite
 Federico Gutiérrez has solidified the traditional right wing powers around him and is
now the likely runner-up in round one and Petro’s eventual run-off opponent.
 Rodolfo Hernández’s wild card candidacy still has the potential to upset the status quo
 Sergio Fajardo’s chances are slipping as the political wings squeeze the centre
 The others are bit-part players
Regarding Petro, his polling lead is now good enough to at least entertain the idea of winning
the whole deal in Round One. However, Federico Gutiérrez has emerged not only as the
preferred candidate of the current Iván Duque government, but also that of the powerful bloc
controlled by ex-President Álvaro Uribe. The so-called “Uribistas” control the right wing and
haven’t been happy with President Duque, but the decision by Óscar Iván Zuluaga to retire his
own candidacy and support that of Gutiérrez means he also has Álvaro Uribe’s tacit support. But
back to the main event and Petro is already predicting a 50%+1 vote win on May 29th and
become President elect without a run-off, but polls suggest it will go to a second round run-off.
As things stand today, we have:
 Petro’s Pacto Histórico coalition at around 37% of total voter support, if we add all
candidate preferences
 Gutiérrez’s Equipo por Colombia at around 20%, to which we add the 5.3% previously
garnered by Óscar Iván Zuluaga. So, 25% or so.
 Fajardo’s Coalición Centro Esperanza at around 19.2%, but likely to drop
 Rodolfo Hernández’s Independent candidacy with at least 8% and perhaps more, but
the wild card nature of his run means a climb in the polls isn’t impossible.
The two key variables in the next two months will be the amount of squeeze placed on
Fajardo’s Centrist candidacy and the way those voters jump, as well as the large portion of
Don’t Know/Will Spoil Ballot responses so far from Colombians polled. We already know Fajardo
will not join forces with Federico Gutiérrez on the right (because he said so), we also know
Gustavo Petro doesn’t even need to wait until the second round run-off before toning down his
hardline Left wing rhetoric. With his left wing credentials stamped and the potential of making it
to 50%+1 vote in round one his task is to move to the centre and eat Fajardo’s vote.
Meanwhile on the right wing, Federico Gutiérrez has emerged as the unite-the-right candidate
but that’s easier said than done. Colombia’s moderate centre-right that would otherwise support
Fajardo is a long way from the hard right of the “Uribistas” (and beyond). The whisper is how
“Fico” Gutiérrez has always been the stealth candidate of ex-President Álvaro Uribe and, while
this desk agrees Gutiérrez is the right wing’s best hope of stopping Petro, particularly as he won
his primary by a much wider margin than expected, he has issues to overcome:
 He will now be painted as the Government candidate and Alvaro Uribe’s candidate at
the same time, a negative cocktail of imagery for anyone outside the classic Colombian
right wing. Uribe is no longer feted the way he was by those outside his party,
meanwhile the Ivan Duque government has become very unpopular and will drag on its
chosen dauphin.
 Gutiérrez will need to appeal to the political centre as well as the right wing, a difficult
balancing act in Colombia. His strategy so far is to go negative and attack Petro on any
policy point, but the moment he talks up his own proposals will day he invites
dissention from one wing or the other of his presumed support. Fico Gutierrez is a
moderate right-winger by nature and while he can talk the hardline talk, Uribistas will
need to swallow hard at some moments in order to accept what they consider liberal
attitudes from their preferred candidate.
 We need to remember at all times that the right has a viable alternative vote in the
shape of independent Rodolfo Hernandez, perhaps best described as a populist
libertarian and a vociferous proponent of the free market. The Hernandez candidacy is
a true wild card, because his populist approach may also appeal in some measure to
27

the country’s left wing voters.
As things stand this weekend, with the field narrowed down and a likely round one result that
would pit Gustavo Petro against Federico Gutiérrez in a second round run-off, Petro is still the
clear favourite to be Colombia’s next President. That’s bad news for mining, because of all the
“hard left” policies and pledges in his manifesto the curtailing of non-renewable resource
extraction will be the easiest to keep and a net vote winner. The good news this weekend is
that he’s best described as a clear favourite instead of red hot favourite, as Fico Gutiérrez’s
showing in the primaries was enough to unite most of Colombia’s right wing behind him. That
gives him an honest chance, but be clear that it’s still Petro’s vote to lose. For further reading,
these Spanish language links are useful background (13) (14) as well as the first post-primaries
poll published by CMC and Semana Magazine (15), which has Petro on 32%, Gutiérrez on 23%,
then Hernandez and Fajardo on 10% and the rest don’t matter.
Bottom line: A Petro win would be bad news for mining in Colombia and while he’s no longer
red-hot favourite to win, he’s certainly in a clear lead. Zero exposure to the country’s mining
sector is the best course of action at this point.
Brazil: Lula da Silva maintains his poll lead over Jair Bolsonaro
Unlike most other LatAm country, Brazil enjoys a veritable surfeit of polling for its major
elections and as a result, the way forward is to find a reliable yardstick pollster and rather than
concentrate on the snapshot, consider the growing trend it offers over a period of time. One of
the best places for this is Poder360, a hybrid TV program and news magazine that is now
running bi-weekly polls on the Brazilian Presidential election race. This chart collates the last six
results from the PoderData poll that comes with a reported margin of error of +/-2%:
PoderData bi-weekly poll for Brazil Presidential election
% Lula Jair
50
45 40 42 40 40 40 40
40
35 30 30 31 32 30
28
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
19-21 Dec 16-18 Jan 31jan-1feb 13-15 feb 27feb-1mar 13-15 mar
source: Poder360
The dynamic of slow growth for incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro in 2022 saw its first setback
in the latest poll (16), the first since the Ukraine became an influence on world affairs and
caused price rises in Brazil (e.g. fuel costs are up sharply). They may also reflect the soft
support Jair Bolsonaro showed for Vladimir Putin in the run-up to the invasion and his refusal to
take sides afterwards. Meanwhile the takeaway for Lula da Silva’s voter intention is
straightforward; he holds solid baseline support with little sign of cracking. Behind the
headlines, he leads Bolsonaro in 3 of the 5 Brazil macro regions, including the two most
populous. For full details of the PoderData poll including the 7% and 8% voter intention for the
minor players in round one, go here for all the details. Finally, as polls suggest neither
frontrunner will make it to 50%+1 vote, we should note that in the event of a second round
run-off between Lula and Jair, Lula doesn’t just beat the incumbent President, he trounces him
by 14 points.
Before closing out, another reminder that FDI and mining investors should not fear a Lula
presidency, he wouldn’t change the playing field in any substantive measure and mining
companies operating in the country would be able to take a change of President with relative
ease, despite it being an apparent move from the hard right to the hard left of the political
spectrum.
28

Argentina’s deal with the IMF is another positive for its mining sector
This Friday saw President Alberto Fernández make an address to the nation, wide-ranging talk
that covered the country’s draft agreement with The IMF, the new inflation pulse now hitting
the country (Argentina endemic high inflation is getting a boost from the same forces the rest
of us are feeling) and its position vis-à-vis the new world order. The address was long and
covered many points, but this gives the flavour (translated):
“We are in an extraordinary situation that requires extraordinary solutions…I will not
tire of repeating; nobody saves themselves alone. I will listen to your proposals and
worries and I will explain the route we are taking. It’s the time that each sector
considers what it contribution will be in this crucial moment for the world and for
Argentina.”
“The agreement with the IMF allows us to begin to bring order to the central
macroeconomic variables in the fight against inflation which is, as we always state, a
multi-cause phenomenon. To attack it, we must accumulate (international currency)
reserves, improve public debt, uncouple internal prices from the international arena,
work on income and price policies at the same time, and take a series of measures for
which multiple actors are indispensable.”
The speech came at the same time as his government unveiled the economic measures they
would use to bolster the local economy and make good on the negotiated deal with The IMF on
its debt owed. These pages aren’t the place to go into Argentina macro financials and all
ramifications of its welter debt burden, for more try this page (17) to begin and here’s a small
snippet:
The contentious deal with the IMF is a refinancing of a $45bn loan that had been
acquired by the previous administration of Mauricio Macri in 2018. Argentina was due
to pay back $19bn in 2022 and $20bn in 2023.
Under the new terms, Argentina has secured a much-needed grace period that
postpones repayment of its debt until 2026.
It also calls on the country to gradually reduce its annual primary deficit so that it
balances by 2025. Speaking to the Senate this week, economy minister Martin
Guzman said the new deal allows the country to avoid “a profound monetary and
inflationary stress that would derail Argentina’s economic recovery and have
consequences on poverty and the distribution of earnings”.
What we mining people to know is that despite the country adding new levels of export tax to
key commodity exports such as grains, Argentina’s deal with the IMF is deliberately miner-
friendly and mining investment remains catch-free. Both sides see the mining sector as a way
to help their cause, with the IMF looking to promote free market economic growth and
Argentina looking to the large-scale hard dollar FDI that mining would bring via large-scale
projects such as Josemaria (Lundin Group), Pachón (Glencore) or the expansion of Veladero
(Barrick and Shandong).
And on that very subject, these reports out of the province of San Juan last week underscore
how the country’s showcase mining region is pushing hard to get its large-scale projects
financed and under construction. This report on the activities of Barrick’s (GOLD) exploration
team (17) dovetails well with GOLD’s own annual report last week (see above) and highlights
the company’s serious investment regime at both Veladero, where is has spent hard to bring
new reserves into line for production in 2024 and beyond, as well as results from around the
Lama and Alturas projects on the Chile border.
Then it’s Glencore’s turn (18) as that company was again under the San Juan government
spotlight last week when reporting on progress at its Pachón copper project that sits right on
the frontier with Chile. Glencore reported that 80% of its current 20,000m drill program was
completed and the company was looking to go to 22,000m before the end of the current drilling
season in May, in order to better define specific areas. In the words of the San Juan Mining
Minister leading the meeting (translated), “El Pachón is one of the most interesting project in
the province, which shows in the results obtained in the current exploration campaign, In order
that it continues to develop, all the actors involved will have to maximize efforts to comply with
the objectives in the time frame allocated, while always prioritizing the potential to improve the
29

local chain of value.” That translates as “We’re not going to let Glencore drag its heels on this
project any longer and what’s more, they need to hire and use local suppliers.”
Peru: The end is nigh
As reported on the blog, last week, President Pedro Castillo gave a strange and impromptu
“State of the Nation” speech to Congress last week, highly unusual in itself and even stranger
when word got out later that he was seriously considering calling for early elections during the
speech, deciding “at the last minute” (according to his Prime Minister) to make one last effort to
reach some sort of consensus with the warring Congress before hitting the self-destruct button.
While odd and rather naïve, the strategy seems to have worked at least in the near-term (with
members of Congress suddenly realizing they’d likely be voted out of their cushy jobs, too) but
from here, it’s only a matter of time before we see Castillo either give up the ghost and resign,
or is impeached and kicked out by a Congress that has works in its own self-interest at all
times (forget the nation). That impeachment may be sooner rather than later too, as last week
Congress passed a resolution to debate and vote on the “Vacancy” of Pedro Castillo on March
28th, with 74 of the 130 Congressional seats voting to admit the motion. Come March 28th , if
those opposed to Castillo can get to the required 87 votes out of 130, he will be summarily
kicked out of office and the office handed to his Vice-President, Dina Boluarte, who may try to
hang in there a while but would be the all-time dead-duck head of state and her only true
recourse would be to call new elections. We then get a new President and Peru’s brief flirtation
with a Left wing executive comes to an end.
All this sounds disruptive and ready to add political risk premium to Peru indeed, ratings agency
S&P downgraded Peru’s sovereign debt rating by one notch last week due to the ongoing
political noise. However in the real world the damage is already done and Peru would be less
instable, not more, if this pathetic presidency born of the most bizarre electoral circumstances
comes to an end. The bottom line is that Peru’s political scene is about to get noisy but
ultimately it’s for the better and all change will be positive for its mining industry.
Nicaragua political risk update
Between December 2018 until last week, the Daniel Ortega regime banned a total of 99 NGOs,
including six from The USA six European-based organizations. This week he added to the list by
ordering closed another 25 NGOs, including an association for the protection of journalists, an
environmental agency and several protecting the interests of women, indigenous people and
human rights. The NGOs include internationally recognized NGOs such as The Christian Center
of Human Rights, the Association of Journalists and the Humboldt Centre and were all accused
of the same technicality, of not offering their accounts for public scrutiny. All have been given
72 hours to close down and leave the country (19).
The Amazon tipping point and Ecuador indigenous opposition to mining
In which The IKN Weekly goes Greenpeace on you all. We begin with this report from Scientific
American (20) earlier this month, entitled “Amazon Rain Forest Nears Dangerous ‘Tipping Point’
and this as its opening paragraph:
”The Amazon rainforest is teetering on the precipice of a dangerous tipping point, new
research warns. It’s gradually losing its ability to bounce back after disturbances like
droughts or other extreme weather events.”
It sounds alarming and a clear and present danger, though the use of the word “gradually”
gives a clue as to why I chose to highlight this Scientific American report on the study, rather
than others that are much shoutier. Once past the headline, the SA article talks about the
uncertain conclusions to the report and how the timeframes are counted in decades, even
centuries, for the so-called “tipping points” marking the decline into environmental disasters for
issues such as the Amazon rainforest, the Antarctic ice sheet and North Atlantic weather
patterns.
Therefore, the issue is one we should care about, but the timeframe is up for debate. With that
30

in mind, we move to an English language report on the 38th “Coordinadora de Organizaciones
Indígenas de la Cuenca Amazónica (COICA) (Coordinator of Indigenous Organizations of the
Amazon Basin) annual meeting, that happens in Puyo, Ecuador (21):
Indigenous leaders from nine countries in the Amazon basin met in Ecuador on
Tuesday and demanded South America governments halt extractive industries which
damage the rainforest, urging them to respect agreements and legal rulings
recognizing communities' rights over territories.
Governments in the region are failing to live up to their promises to protect indigenous
groups, the leaders representing 500 communities - including from Ecuador, Colombia
and Brazil - said, adding they feel disrespect when they are not consulted over the
exploitation of oil and mining projects in their territories.
In Ecuador, indigenous communities' fight against extractive industries has gained
strength after the country's Constitutional Court suspended environmental permits for a
mining project and upheld communities' right to prior consent regarding development
of projects that affect their way of life or are located in their territories.
One surprise was to see an English report on this annual meeting at all, but the focus on non-
renewable resource extraction in the hot button country of Ecuador was probably why this
annual event that gathers indigenous groups from nine regional countries made the new cycle.
Indeed, local organizer Marlon Vargas of Ecuador’s Confeniae pressure group gave assembled
reporters plenty of soundbites, such as this one (translated) (22):
“We underscore what is happening in Amazonian Ecuador; the permanent threat of
extractive industry from hydrocarbons, mining and hydroelectric companies.”
Marlon Vargas is one of the main voices in the newly influential indigenous political world and
went on to say that Confeniae, CONAIE and its political party Pachakutik will oppose all projects
connected to fuel, mining or hydro in the region and in the case of mining, be they legal,
artisan or illegal. He closed by stating that in the next few weeks, Confeniae would hold a
conference at which they will decide on their strategies of opposition.
Market Watching
Palladium and Platinum update
Further to the last couple of weeks, we check up on how the most important PGMs are trading
compared to gold bullion (spot gold GC00) and the answer over the last five days is…
…that Au may have been negative, but it had a veritable walk in blossom-sprinkled woodlands
compared to the hammering taken by Pt and Pl.
Almaden (AMM.to) (AAU), Great Panther (GPR.to)(GPL) and Excellon
(EXN.to)(EXN): From whence they came
First up, we anticipated the unpredictable in our juniors sector as a result of the ripples caused
by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Then last weekend we noted how one effect was to have seen
31

an influx of money into beaten-down miners with poor track records but, coincidentally, all with
full NYSE listings. The three are Almaden Minerals (AMM.to) (AAU) and its newly unpermitted
Ixtaca project in Mexico, Great Panther (GPR.to)(GPL) and its serially poor operational track
record in Mexico and now Brazil, then Excellon Resources (EXN.to)(EXN) and its track record of
failure at La Platosa, as well as the way it has recently bolted on questionable projects with
permitting issues in The USA and Germany. Last weekend we noted how all three had bolted
higher and then a lot higher on Friday under what looked like an influx of dumb money, this
weekend we update the same chart to show what’s happened since then:
After climbing their cliffs, all three immediately decided to jump off them again. No further
comment is required from this desk, except to underscore our commitment to “serious” end of
e the junior mining market and, hopefully at least, continue to focus on quality companies with
real stories to tell. While it’s impossible to be fully inoculated against the influences of the
Conclusion
IKN670 is done, we end with bullet points:
 After a read through, the opportunity to trade Discovery Silver over the near-term
stands out clearly. This stock is prone to dips and quick recoveries and at C$!.66 in this
silver price environment, it stands out as a bargain.
 Gold is the metal that stops you from becoming poor and in the current macro
environment, that fact hasn’t been lost on Wall St as GLD inventories start to swell.
buyers show that hasn’t
 As for the main non-ferrous trade, copper’s fundamentals could not be more bullish. As
for stocks dependent on copper, one day we’ll all look back at the time we could have
bought QC Copper at under 30c and laugh hard.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stocks are Minera Alamos (MAI.v) and
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v). Flash updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best wishes, Mark
32

Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://www.reuters.com/world/putin-tells-scholz-that-kyiv-is-stalling-peace-talks-with-moscow-2022-03-18/
(2) https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/20/politics/zelensky-putin-ukraine-negotiations-war-cnntv/index.html
(3) https://www.newmont.com/investors/news-release/news-details/2022/Newmont-Coffee-Gold-Project-Approved-by-
Federal-and-Territorial-Governments/default.aspx
(4) https://qccopper.com/news/qc-copper-intersects-100m-of-0.42-cueq-and-93m-of-0.45-cueq-further-extending-
mineralization-of-opemiskas-conceptual-open-pit/
(5) https://discoverysilver.com/news/discovery-announces-appointment-of-anthony-esplin-as-chief-operating-officer/
(6) https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/lme-copper-aluminium-dip-focus-ukraine-crisis-2022-03-14/
(7) https://www.cochilco.cl/Paginas/Sala-de-Prensa/Noticias.aspx?ID=533
(8) https://kutcho.ca/news/2022/kutcho-copper-eliminates-debt-and-expands-partnership-with-wheaton-precious-metals/
(9) https://iknnews.com/barrick-gold-maybe-its-just-me/
(10) https://profit.pakistantoday.com.pk/2022/02/20/barrick-gold-is-coming-back-to-reko-diq/
(11) https://www.barrick.com/English/news/news-details/2022/barrick-pakistan-and-balochistan-agree-in-principle-to-
restart-reko-diq-project/default.aspx
(12) https://www.elcolombiano.com/colombia/politica/gustavo-petro-y-federico-gutierrez-lograron-amplia-ventaja-en-las-
consultas-presidenciales-y-son-opcionados-para-las-elecciones-presidenciales-de-2022-IO16907719
(13) https://www.valoraanalitik.com/2022/03/17/fitch-propuestas-petro-imposibles-politicamente-colombia/
(14) https://elpais.com/internacional/2022-03-14/fico-gutierrez-y-el-riesgo-de-reconocerse-como-el-candidato-de-
uribe.html
(15) https://www.semana.com/nacion/articulo/federico-gutierrez-se-dispara-y-se-convierte-en-el-principal-rival-de-
gustavo-petro-encuesta-del-cnc-para-semana/202201/
(16) https://www.poder360.com.br/poderdata/recuperacao-de-bolsonaro-perde-impeto-diz-poderdata/
(17) http://enernews.com/nota/345595/barrick-explora-san-juan-en-busqueda-de-otros-veladeros-que-dijo-marcelo-
alvarez-nota-y-podcast
(18) https://sisanjuan.gob.ar/mineria/2022-03-16/39451-astudillo-recibio-informes-sobre-avances-del-proyecto-pachon
(19) https://gestion.pe/mundo/daniel-ortega-cancela-25-ong-defensoras-de-ambientalistas-mujeres-y-periodistas-en-
nicaragua-noticia/
(20) https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/amazon-rain-forest-nears-dangerous-tipping-point/
(21) https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/indigenous-communities-meet-ecuador-demand-end-extractive-industries-
2022-03-15/
(22) https://www.noticiasfides.com/nacional/sociedad/lideres-indigenas-de-nueve-paises-amazonicos-se-unen-para-
exigir-a-los-gobiernos-frenar-el-extractivismo-414309
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Set-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Abr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
33

Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Ago-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Set-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Ene-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Set-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Ene-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Set-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Ago-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Abr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Set-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Abr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Set-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
34

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-ago-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-ene-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-abr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-abr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-ene-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-ene-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-abr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-abr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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