IKN #661Premium

The IKN Weekly
Week 661, January 23rd 2022
Contents
This Week: Trade heads-up, In Today’s edition, Gold catches a bid.
Fundamental Analysis: The state of play in the five biggest IKN Weekly positions.
Stocks to Follow: Great Bear Resources (GBR.v), QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v), Aldebaran
Resources (ALDE.v), Trilogy Metals (TMQ), Discovery Silver (DSV.v), Mene Inc (MENE.v),
Minera IRL (MIRL.cse).
Copper Basket: Overview, Oroco (OCO.v), Regulus (REG.v), C3 Metals (CCCM.v).
Producer Basket: Overview, Barrick (GOLD) and Newmont (NEM).
TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Precipitate Gold (PRG.v).
Regional Politics: Argentina announces a major new policy for renewable energy, Chile:
President-Elect Boric announces his cabinet, Chile: exploration costs to rise, Panama and First
Quantum, Mexico: The Supreme Court case against Almaden Minerals is suspended.
Market Watching: Deferring on Altiplano Metals (APN.v) again (sorry), Also deferring on
Palamina Corp (PA.v).
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
Trade heads-up
A different sort of trade heads-up today, due to portfolio rebalancing rather than any outright
sales or brand new purchases. The envisaged trades are:
 Reducing my position in Copper Mountain (CMMC.to) by between one third and one
half (33% to 50%).
With the proceeds of the CMMC.to sales and in likely order of weighting…
 Adding to McEwen Mining (MUX)
 Adding to Amerigo Resources (ARG.to)
 Adding to QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v)
 Adding to Aldebaran Resources (ALDE.v) (if possible)
NB: Please note, there are no new positions or any closed positions planned, this is all about
taking some of the cash from CMMC and re-deploying it in open positions that provide
meaningful exposure to copper.
In Today’s Edition
 Today’s main fundamentals section is a State of Play in the five largest positions held
by your author, namely Minera Alamos, Rio2 Ltd, Copper Mountain, Amerigo Resources
and McEwen Mining (MUX) with updated thoughts in each.
 However, the underlying reason for the unusual format of today’s main event is centred
around the decision to reduce my position in Copper Mountain (CMMC.to) and re-deploy
1

the raised cash in other open copper trades.
 With Argentina now closing in on a debt refinance deal with the IMF, the main feature
in Regional Politics highlights a policy event in San Juan last week that seems to have
been missed almost entirely by the mining sector and its field of commentators. It
signalled a major policy change and is set to open the country up for the long-overdue
development of several large-scale mining projects, so the sooner you realize the
significance of the National Renewable Cluster, the better for your back pocket. For
what it’s worth, I think this news can make you real money in 2022 and what’s more,
most people up North haven’t yet realized its importance.
 Also in Regional Politics, those who screamed about The End Of Chile after the election
victory of Gabriel Boric have plenty of words to eat, as his ministerial nominations make
it clear that nobody is going to mess with its main economic drivers and those include
the mining industry, of course.
Gold catches a bid
Up to last Friday the last time GLD had over 1,000 metric tonnes of gold in its vaults was late
September, but suddenly…
GLD gold holdings, December and January (metric tonnes)
1020
1015
1010
1005
1000
995
990
985
980
975
970
965
960
2
12/11/03 12/21/2 12/21/4 12/21/6 12/21/8 12/21/01 12/21/21 12/21/41 12/21/61 12/21/81 12/21/02 12/21/22 12/21/42 12/21/62 12/21/82 12/21/03 22/1/1 22/1/3 22/1/5 22/1/7 22/1/9 22/1/11 22/1/31 22/1/51 22/1/71 22/1/91 22/1/12
mt
source: SPDR GLD data
…somebody somewhere got the urge to buy 27.5 metric tonnes of the stuff, metal valued at
U$1.62Bn (with a B) that saw GLD inventories close the week at 1,008.45mt. Not a bad pop,
but it doesn’t signal an immediate All Clear for the PM world as while Wednesday also saw five
tonnes added, it’s difficult to call this new move a trend until we get a few more days of
confirmation. One swallow doesn’t make a summer and even if gold catches more bids from
Wall St next week, the reasons are also up for debate. Is this an inflation hedge? Do bonds
yields suggest the Fed cannot hike as aggressively as they’re currently making out? Will
inflation keep running ahead of the hikes? Or perhaps the reason is further afield, with Russia
playing geopolitics on the Ukraine border? I don’t know (and I’m not sure I care too much, but
what we do know is that sentiment for gold still has plenty of room to improve in real terms:
GLD: Inventory/Price Ratio, 2021 to date
7.00
6.80
6.60
6.40
6.20
6.00
5.80
5.60
5.40
5.20
5.00
4/1/1202 41/1/1202 42/1/1202 3/2/1202 31/2/1202 32/2/1202 5/3/1202 51/3/1202 52/3/1202 4/4/1202 41/4/1202 42/4/1202 4/5/1202 41/5/1202 42/5/1202 3/6/1202 31/6/1202 32/6/1202 3/7/1202 31/7/1202 32/7/1202 2/8/1202 21/8/1202 22/8/1202 1/9/1202 11/9/1202 12/9/1202 1/01/1202 11/01/1202 12/01/1202 13/01/1202 01/11/1202 02/11/1202 03/11/1202 01/21/1202 02/21/1202 03/21/1202 9/1/2202 91/1/2202
Source: SPDR data, IKN calcs
Sentiment is still in the dumpster, but that is when you should buy (isn’t it?) and by taking a
slightly longer view on gold ownership, even getting back to the levels of ownership when

President Biden took over the US mandate would need another 160 metric tonnes of buying
from the financial centre of the universe. There’s a long way to go on this chart (below) before
we can start talking about bullion being back in favour and two days of lumpy buying is a good
start, but not much else.
GLD gold holdings, turn of 2021 to date (metric tonnes)
1200
1180
1160
1140
1120
1100
1080
1060
1040
1020
1000
980
960
3
12/1/4 12/1/41 12/1/42 12/2/3 12/2/31 12/2/32 12/3/5 12/3/51 12/3/52 12/4/4 12/4/41 12/4/42 12/5/4 12/5/41 12/5/42 12/6/3 12/6/31 12/6/32 12/7/3 12/7/31 12/7/32 12/8/2 12/8/21 12/8/22 12/9/1 12/9/11 12/9/12 12/01/1 12/01/11 12/01/12 12/01/13 12/11/01 12/11/02 12/11/03 12/21/01 12/21/02 12/21/03 22/1/9 22/1/91
mt
source: SPDR GLD data
However, we can give one cheer for the performance of the Jekyll&Hyde metal. Silver was a cut
above anything in the equities market, which must have frustrated those long the silver stocks
as while GLD rose 0.8%, SLV rose by a cool
5.4% and did far better than anything the stock
indices could manage, even GDX propped by
the good news out of Barrick (see Producer
Basket) only managed +2.2% and GDXJ
returned as lacklustre +1.5%. The result was to
see the Gold/Silver Ratio (GSR) drop from 80X
was down to 75X (courtesy Kitco.com).
However, you’ll have to forgive me if I don’t
swallow the bullish fanboy chatter at the first
opportunity and play the cynic’s card, at least
until next weekend. Unless there’s serious
follow-through on last week’s precious metals
purchases, it’s wiser to put it down to pure
market speculation that coincides on the
calendar with 2021’s ill-fated Silverqueeze. If the next five days proves me wrong and silver
zooms higher, feel free to mock my negativity mercilessly because I can live with the
consequences. After all, this time I’m long DSV.v.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
The state of play in the five biggest IKN Weekly positions
“It’s tough to make predictions,
especially about the future.”
Before getting busy, a sidebar mention about that quote. It came to mind as this note began to
form and your author was going to attribute the famous and pithy quote to Lawrence “Yogi”
Berra but on checking with the Google machine (1) it turns out that would have been a wrong
call, as the original is from a Danish book on politics published in 1948. However, it does give
the opportunity to quote an authentic and wonderful Berra-ism as, in the great man’s words,
"That’s one of the things that I said that I never said."
Preamble: Today’s main note is an unusual format that grew from the decision made around
Copper Mountain (CMMC.to) as it delivered its NRs last week, with the trigger Wednesday that
it had decided to hedge it copper sales for 2022. As the week wore into this weekend it dawned

on me I was over-exposed to CMMC and needed to do something about it but, at the same
time, the only fair way to explain the plans for my CMMC trade would be to provide as much
context as possible. Add into the mix how I was overdue on strategy thoughts for the two Top
OPick stocks, plus what I was going to do with the money from the reduction of my Copper
Mountain position and today’s fundies note began to grow its branches. The result is something
akin to a “State of the Nation” article that covers my five largest or most important current
open trades, explains my current attitude to each one here today, January 2022 and what I’m
expecting from each one as 2022 rolls out.
Whoever coined that opening quote, predictions about the future are certainly the most difficult
and this publication is living, breathing proof. There are the obvious failures such as the hit
taken on Argonaut Gold (AR.to) as featured in last weekend’s intro piece, instead let’s use the
recent behaviour of our two Top Picks, Minera Alamos (MAI.v) and Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v)…
…and state with confidence that a more accurate prediction of the last 12 months would have
meant treating them in a different way. This gets a mention this because that’d not the
objective of today’s fundies note. There are some necessary looks to the past, but our focus is
firmly on the present and 2022 future of the five largest positions held by your author and for
the TL:DR among you, here are the names and crib notes on each:
 Minera Alamos (MAI.v): Top Pick and staying that way, after an unexpectedly tough
2021 things should get a lot better. If I weren’t very long the stock already, I’d add at
current levels.
 Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v): Top Pick and staying that way, as despite its current quiet period a lot
has happened and the market still hasn’t realized the significance of last year’s
financing deal. This year should see the start of its real development track.
 Copper Mountain (CMMC.to): The reason this anal ysis exists in the way it does, as
after due consideration I’ve decided to lighten my position and re-deploy the raised
cash in other copper trades, as seen below. The Risk/Reward in the near-term is not as
attractive as before and while I’m still bullish about its plans and a supporter of the
company, I’m looking to improve copper leverage via a portfolio re-balance.
 Amerigo Resources (ARG.to); Going great guns since we opened the trade and every
reason to remain supportive. I will add to my position during the re-balance.
 McEwen Mining (MUX): With a soft-ish 4q21 production NR behind us, the stock price
now looks set to appreciate on the back of its turnaround potential and, most
importantly, the opportunity to get in early on Los Azules and the McEwen Copper
spinout. A will add to my position during the re-balance.
Also, while smaller trades and not featured in depth in the main fundies piece, the company
notes in today Stocks to Follow section make clear I’m also planning to use some of the re-
balance cash from CMMC to add to QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v) and potentially Aldebaran
4

Resources (ALDE.v) as well, if it allows a reasonable entry point.
That’s more than enough intro blather, let’s get on with the real stuff because by luck or
misjudgement, your author finds himself in January 2022 with five larger open positions in his
juniors portfolio, compared to the other ten (or nine) that also get coverage here at The IKN
Weekly. They are presented in sizing order, therefore we begin with Minera Alamos (MAI.v).
Minera Alamos (MAI.v) in January 2022
How has Minera Alamos pulled off its trick? For context, back in its December 2019 corporate
presentation, among other things we were promised…
…production from Santana in “mid-2020” and La Fortuna as its second mine coming online as
from the second half of 2021, but as one of your author’s preferred Spanish expressions goes,
“The reality is other.” Instead, and as a hack to get to the present day at MAI.v here’s the
equivalent slide from the January 2022 presentation, which also underscores my patience with
this company as I’m even able to ignore the cheesy swooping arrow and those gold bars:
Instead we focus on content and note the major changes:
1) Santana has only just started production and we await its declaration of commercial
production.
2) La Fortuna has been shuffled down the pack.
3) The “Acquire 3rd Asset” has turned into Cerro de Oro, bought for U$2.9m cash and 4m
shares in staged payments over four years, now slotted in as the next development
project.
4) The long-term plan these days is to acquire a 4th asset, rather than promise 150k
oz/annum production
Overall, the Covid-19 era (for want of a better phrase) has seen the plan at MAI.v morph and
change considerably, with the biggest shift being the continued pushback of production at
Santana. We also need to talk recent market trading, because just when we thought that things
5

would improve and the advent of production and first gold pour at Santana would get the share
price moving, MAI shares were duly sat upon by Osisko Development (ODEV) and its corporate
decision to liquidate its shares in MAI. ODEV did it for its own sweet reasons (i.e. to fund its
own development track at the Cariboo project in Canada) but it was still another bummer on
the end of an already trying period of delays to the expected price re-rate.
So to return to the original question above, “How has Minera Alamos pulled off its trick?” While
many other companies would have seen support for their plans wither and die after promising
one company development on a timeline then delivering something quite different at a slower
pace, then having to suffer the selling size brought on by ODEV, MAI has somehow managed
to keep its share base happy and on-board. They include me, a cynical anal yst and perennial
kvetching shareholder who’ll moan about anything at the drop of hay, instead I’ve kept smiling
and happily holding shares through the extended fallow period. For me, the answer is a
combination of factors which include a straightforward business model, an experienced team
with a successful track record and, of course, the expert way in which company President Doug
Ramshaw has used social media. That last point is certainly important, but it wouldn’t have
worked if it weren’t for the baseline honesty and integrity of the man himself. This harks back
to one of the points made in the long intro piece of last week “TD asks the question” and
without re-hashing that long note we can state that honestly and openness begets loyalty. Also
watching President Ramshaw buy over 6m shares in piecemeal fashion via open market
purchases means it’s not all talk, the alignment with shareholders comes from real skin in the
game.
However let’s not fool ourselves because the bottom line is money. This is capitalism, not feel-
good charity time and without a solid business model, there’s no way a small exploreco such as
MAI would have been able to take an 18 month delay to its original timeline and remain intact,
even with the best will in the world. Therefore let’s dial down a little on the most important
factor, MAI’s business model of building projects using low capital intensity. The balance sheet
charts at MAI give clues as to how it’s happened. Liabilities (right) have been kept to a
minimum while assets (left) have risen to just C$35m, even as Santana has been built out and
the work capitalized. That compares to its current market cap of C$250m and means all the
value is in its equity.
MAI.v: Assets
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
As for the most important segment in the balance sheet, separating out the cash position
(right) shows how the company has built a
mine and still has over C$12m at bank
(according to its January 2022 corporate
presentation). Perhaps with some luck along
the way (e.g. timing with its PRYM share sales)
but the delays to Santana to get it to this stage
today (now on the “cusp of commercial
production”, getting the cliché out the way)
could not have happened if the plan were
based around higher capex mine project.
6
61q4 71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3
$m MAI.v: Liabilities per qtr
10
fixed 9
other current 8
cash 7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
source: company filings
61q4 71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
LT liabs
current liabs
MAI.v: Cash treasury per qtr
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
61q4 71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 tse12q4
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim

Without its baseline business model of developing open-pit gold mines at the cheapest price
possible, MAI would have sunk ages ago, so along with the confluence of talents of CEO
Koningen and President Ramshaw, MAI had the right package at the right time, one that has
allowed me to remain very long. Good people? Yes. Well bought assets? Of course. But it’s the
model they set up before Covid changed the world that allowed MAI to ride it out, in effect the
company could lockdown along with the rest of us. A small company with low overhead could
shut up shop for a couple of quarters without damaging treasury but then, as the Mexico build-
out hit delays along the way, the same low-cost capex track allowed flexibility and meant time
was the greatest cost, rather than hard dollars. I’d also agree that MAI management salaries
help by not squeezing treasury hard, but that’s a secondary factor.
Which brings us to today and while it may be tempting fate, we seem to be finally at the point
on MAI’s development slide that gets “Part One, Santana” completed. And so to the future and
what we can expect from the year ahead, which should begin with news of the next
development project. Now that Santana is due to be delivered, the small Top Table team can
turn its attention to the next project and according to the literature that’s Cerro de Oro, its 630k
oz of 43-101 resource and its quick permitting track. The plan should allow the company to
repeat its formula of building a low capex intensity mine using funds available. However, the
flexibility of the corporate strategies is always at hand so if Cerro de Oro finds Mexico in 2022
to be less conducive to quick permitting, MAI is bound to have its Plan B that see the larger La
Fortuna jump the queue.
Whichever way the cards fall, IKN Top Pick MAI is the poster child for letting the right team
with the right assets the time it requires. With Santana about to go cash flow positive, the
worst of the speed bumps are now behind the stock price and as we go forward, the virtuous
circle of trust built up by the MAI team allows the third party observer and shareholder (i.e. me)
to take a hands-off approach, confident that those on the inside who understand the workings
of the company best will make the right corporate decisions. Yes, we can readily agree that
2021 should have been the year that Minera Alamos delivered for shareholders, instead it is set
up for 2022 and as that’s now, the house plan is to sit back and let MAI get on with the job of
adding equity value to the company.
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v) in January 2022
The delays suffered by our other Top Pick, Rio2 Ltd have been different in nature from those at
Minera Alamos. They stem from earlier in its development track as, critical path for RIO.v at
Fenix has always been constrained by its country of location. Chile is the “serious mining
country” and has a regimented and well-established permitting track, so while some of the
permits could be obtained quickly, the major permit awards that allow a company to build and
operate a mine don’t come before any company passes stringent examination. They include
mine plan and environment (of course), but Chile as a nation doesn’t allow the cart before the
horse and in our case, delays to finalizing the financing package for Fenix caused a painful
knock-on in critical path timeline. As Rio2 at Fenix had several alternatives on the table for its
financing package, the Covid-19 interruption came at a strategically bad time for its business
patterns and not just during the initial lockdown. Getting entities such as BNP Paribas and
Wheaton Precious Metals as backers implies detailed and technical due diligence and with travel
restricted, the 2020 DD period dragged into 2021 and for what seemed like forever. However
RIO passed DD and once the package that funds Fenix to production was finally announced,
the company could turn its full attention to the critical path of EIA permitting.
This is where we are today, with prime milestone target for RIO.v its EIA permit. On quizzing
CEO Alex Black on in the last few days, this desk has learned RIO.v is already deep into the
permitting process and to quote CEO Black should have “visibility on likely timing in the not-too-
distant future”. That’s slightly vague because the ball isn’t in the company’s court, but once
they have something to report to market, you can be sure we’ll get the NR quickly.
There are good and bad things about the environmental permitting track in Chile and, while the
7

good generally outweigh the bad, it’s worth noting that for those inside the company doing the
jobs, this stage in proceedings must seem like constant negatives. For us on the outside, I can
report that RIO.v at Fenix is now past the preliminary EIA stage with no red flag issues
identified by authorities. This is good, but the devil is in the details and EIA permitting in Chile
demands back-and-forth sessions between company and authorities, known as “observaciones”
(no need to translate directly). That the process is now at the second round, with the first set of
observations successfully tackled. These second level of observations in Chile come in from a
whole host of government bodies (environment, social, water, planning, tax, you-name-it) that
require details and ask their questions, express doubts or queries about (sometimes the
smallest of) matters. It’s then the company’s job to reply and that has happened, as RIO.v
replied to all second round observations before Christmas. With the ball now in Chile’s court,
the process now requires each relevant authority to sign off on their detailed observations and
that means plenty of meetings. That’s exactly where we are today and why “not too distant
future” is the best the company can tell us. Fair enough.
Switching gears for a few lines on the macro political scene in Chile today, that’s now a lesser
issue than most imagine. When asked whether the company is being affected by the
changeover in government in Chile, the honest answer from CEO Black last week was “We don’t
know”. To date their interactions with State bureau have been normal and unlike other South
American countries, Chile’s public servants don’t tend to get shipped in and out of jobs on a
wholesale basis with a change of political power. Yes, ministers and vice-ministers do change
but most team members stay in place and that provides continuity. So far, the company hasn’t
suffered from any new delays, but the doubts arise on any final sign-off and last week, CEO
Black was still somewhat in the dark about the upcoming Gabriel Boric administration, but since
we spoke problems now look less likely, as the incoming government has apparently made
good on its promise to be “miner friendly” (see Regional Politics, below). Ultimately, Chile is the
rule-keeper country and with its regimented permitting track, as long as RIO.v is in compliance
when the time period has elapsed, the EIA permit will come.
In the meantime, RIO isn’t resting on its laurels and is moving forward where it can.
Contractors have started their work on those parts of the Fenix project that can be moved
forward early and as evidence, here are two photos taken from a drone about 10 days ago of
the camp construction happening at Lince, the land package some 20km down from the site.
This location is under the altitude limit demanded by Chilean law for permanent accommodation
and means that the construction and eventual mine operation workforce will be located close to
the mine, with no need to travel an extra 90 minutes from the city of Copiapó for every shift.
This land package was purchased by RIO.v in April 2020 while the world was locked down (2).
Previously part of an old mine complex called Can-Can, the site was bought for $1.5m cash and
has proven to be a wise investment, not only for the important strategic advantages it brings in
housing and organizing the workforce, but because the location also has some limited water
rights that will be able to supplement the water supply to the mine (and cover its own needs as
a base for manpower).
8

The top-left corner of the second photo shows the main road that runs past the camp, which is
at the turn-off to the Fenix mine (during my visit in late 2018, we drove to within a couple of
hundred yards of this site where old ore processing facility, now demolished, was located).
The bottom line to the future of our other Top Pick for 2022 is also brighter than the long,
drawn out period we’ve been through since early 2020 and the arrival of Covid-19 on the scene.
When the financing package announcement this desk wrote in July 2021, this desk wrote the
following as part of the main fundamentals note in IKN635, “Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v) raises capital”:
Of all the stages, milestones and tests of a company that RIO has had to go through,
the one just past represented the greatest threat to success. In effect and while still
over two years before we get a gold pour, this project has been successfully de-
bottlenecked and it’s very difficult to imagine the circumstance in which Fenix does
NOT get built any longer.
That’s as true today as it was six months ago, so even though progress since then has been of
the type that doesn’t move the markets with headline-grabbing NRs, Rio2 Ltd has been
working diligently at the behest of Chilean permitting authorities toward the next milestone, the
EIA permit award. The permitting track is reportedly going as planned, so once the EIA pops
out the other end the company will be in a position to make more noise as the main build-out
effort begins. Today in January 2022 is one of those moments when doubters will always find a
reason to doubt, the present one is “Where’s the EIA?” That’s unanswerable until the EIA is
awarded (at which time the doubters will likely find something else to chew upon) but there are
vanishingly few companies in the privileged position that RIO.v finds itself in today:
 Fully funded by heavy-hitter backers
 Multi-million ounce gold resource
 Proven track record of mine-building and operating success
 Low-risk jurisdiction with a long history of mining and clear rules
Today in early 2022, you get all that a bargain share price. To round off, while the timeline has
stretched out far longer than originally imagined, RIO.v is still a shining example of a junior run
with integrity by a team fully aligned with shareholders. While Minera Alamos probably has the
better claim to the next major catalyst thanks to Santana, when RIO.v gets its EIA permit and
can start the major construction work at Fenix, CEO Alex Black and his team won’t be far
behind and with Chile as host, the chances of the goalposts being moved at the last moment
are slim. Patience applied until the EIA shows, at that point this story come off the back burner
and the wider world will have a new junior operator to talk up.
Copper Mountain (CMMC.to) in January 2022
Next up for our overview of the five largest sized positions at The IKN Weekly today is Copper
Mountain, (CMMC.to), your author’s largest copper trade as stands this weekend. As noted in
passing last weekend, CMMC is currently larger in money terms than my holding in Rio2, but
9

that’s neither here nor there, the main reason for today’s examination is the advent of its 4q21
financial and production results, plus 2022 production guidance, due released along with a
Conference Call on February 14th pre-bell (3). But before we preview that key date on the
calendar, let’s catch up with the news CMMC dropped on the market last week:
Firstly, on Wednesday January 19th CMMC announced (4) it was instigating a “costless collar”
hedge on copper prices for 2022 and to quote the NR, “The contracts cover 3.3 million pounds
of copper per month through 2022, for a total of 39.6 million pounds of copper. The floor price
of the monthly copper options has been set at US$4.00 per pound with an average ceiling price
of US$4.91 per pound.” That’s a substantial amount of expected 2022 copper production at
CMMC and we’ll need to keep a close eye on the hedge facility if the upper limit to the hedge
program comes under threat. The company has always taken a more prudent approach to its
financing plans and its corporate material makes sure you understand that its focus is to the
longer-term and its plans to triple production in the next three years as the Ingerbelle extension
to its Copper Mountain asset comes online, then its Eva project in Australia is built out. That
makes 2022 something of a transition year for the
company and, along with the guidance toward lower
production levels this year (see below), sees the
company wanting to insure it has the money on hand for
all plans. However, the move announced last week to
hedge around half of 2022 copper production takes away
potential share price blue-sky in the immediate term.
The other news last week came Friday, in which CMMC
announced the latest drill results from Ingerbelle, the
deposit located just 1km from its Copper Mountain
operations. The full NR is required for context, but we
can at least offer a representative visual (right) to show
how the drill out-steps to the West of the known deposit
have returned good grades (the pink coloured holes)
CMMC talks of “high grade hits” and while the raw
numbers may not look as though that description fits, the
long intervals of 0.3% and 0.4% copper (or around 0.5% and 0.6% CuEq once the gold and
silver by-products are added) are a clear step up from the current 0.24% Cu reserve category
grades at Copper Mountain mine. As those currently mined grades are obviously profitable, the
context means New Ingerbelle is indeed looking promising and “high grade” is just about
justified. The plan for Ingerbelle in 2022 is to wrap up the drill program by the end of 1q22,
then update the 43-101 compliant resource by the end of 2q22.
In sum, last week brought good exploration news and when that hit, the share price saw a nice
upmove but, not for the first time, the pop didn’t hold and we saw trading fade into the Friday
close. While CMMC’s performance was adequate, your author was once again left with the
thought that CMMC is under-performing compared its cash generation ability at current copper
prices. The rest of today’s update considers why that might be, starting with a price chart:
10

Perhaps the hedge program news was more of a weight against the stock price than first
imagined Wednesday, or perhaps CMMC was unduly dragged down like many other equities
were by broad market weakness for equities, but there’s no escaping the fact that CMMC didn’t
reflect the rally in copper prices from Wednesday onward (see The Copper Basket). One factor
may be a market nervous about the upcoming 4q21 results and 2022 guidance, so we need to
look for clues on what to expect. The CMMC back catalogue of literature has several useful
sources and here we begin with the oldest, a January 2020 NR which offered gave three year
production guidance that included guidance for 2022 (5). Here’s the information from that NR in
table form:
CMMC.to: three year guidance (as at Jan'20)
Year 2020 2021 2022
CuEq (Mlb)* 100 to 113 102 to 115 88 to 100
Cu (Mlb) 86 to 96 88 to 98 75 to 85
CuEq: Cu U$3.00/lb, Au U$1,400/oz, U$16.50/lb
In general terms, as far back as January 2020 CMMC was flagging 2022 as a year that woiuld
see lower levels of production. In the NR notes for its 2022 guidance, CMMC didn’t give much
but did state that, “Production is expected to be lower in 2022 at 75 to 85 million pounds of
copper with production planned to recover back to higher levels immediately thereafter.”
That was then, so before we consider whether we can still trust that long-dated 2022 guidance
let’s consider how its guidance for the 2020 and 2021 years have panned out before jumping to
conclusions. First 2020, which ended with copper production of 77.55m lbs (and CuEq of
98.62m lbs). Compared to the original guidance above that was an understandable miss, as
back when the above got published there were only a few low-level news stories about some
coronavirus event in a backwater city called Wuhan in China. Once the full effects of Covid-19
had whacked the entire world out of kilter, CMMC revised its 2020 guidance to between 70m lbs
and 75m lbs copper and as a result, its 2020 year-end MD&A claimed it beat forecasts. Hmmm.
Moving to 2021 and in the same 2020 MD&A, CMMC refined 2021 the guidance you see above
(88m lbs to 98m lbs Cu) to between 85m lbs and 95m lbs copper. We compare that with the
known production of the first three quarters of last year, in which, CMMC has returned copper
production of 73.45m lbs (with CuEq of 86.35m lbs). That means the company is on-track for
upper end of guidance, as the plan includes higher tonnage throughput in the back end of 2021
as its mill upgrades come online. However there is a downside, as in the 3q21 conference call
as well as the latest corporate presentation (6), CMMC guided Q4 copper production as slightly
lower than in 3q21. Copper grades are expected to drop as the company runs material mined
from the lower grading Phase#2 zone of Copper Mountain through its recently commissioned
extra ball mill. That is prudent mine management and, at current copper prices, the decision to
process lower grades and still make good margins is understandable. On the other hand, it fits
with the early 2020 guided production drop for 2022 and as a result, the way CMMC is now
focused on its three year plan (and keen to market that line) also indicates 2022 is that
“transition year” before the new assets come online in 2023 (Ingerbelle) and 2024 (Eva).
The bottom line to the current state of play in Copper Mountain is not as bright as it was, even
a week ago. The two reasons are 1) CMMC isn’t trading well and price gains on good news from
either its own development (Ingerbelle) or the market (copper prices) sees sellers step up.
Then 2) up to last week, the transition year of 2022 with the potential for somewhat lower
production was of less concern, as copper prices increases would have compensated.
Expanding throughput via additions to infrastructure (e.g. the ball mill) is the way any mining
company faces lower grades and the higher grades mined in 2021 compared to the reserve
average meant that they weren’t going to last forever. However, the news that CMMC is now
hedging around half of its 2022 production not only limits blue sky, but also leaves vulnerable
to taking a financial hit if copper moves higher in the way this desk imagines it might. As a
result the main reason to own CMMC, i.e. its ability to offer strong leverage to the price of
11

copper, has diluted and I believe that’s the reason we don’t have the share price at the type of
PE multiple we’d expect at this point in time, with copper trading above U$4.50/lb.
Which leads to the trade decision and conclusion to this update on CMMC as all the above is a
long way of getting to the main point. In fact, it’s the reason your author’s five major holdings
are the subject of this fundamentals note in this edition of The IKN Weekly: I’ve decided to
reduce my holding of CMMC and deploy funds elsewhere. Please be clear, I’m not selling
out completely and the plan is to sell between 1/3 and ½ of my position, but since the news on
Wednesday the feeling of being too long here and potentially making a mistake has grown to
the point where I feel obliged take action. The copper exposure in my current portfolio is
speculative and at this point in time, early 2022, I want to position and take as much advantage
of the expected rise in copper prices as possible. With CMMC, my growing feeling is of making a
mistake and being too long in a company that won’t offer upside in the near or medium-term.
However, please note the decision is to reduce exposure rather than sell outright because this is
less about CMMC, more about personal portfolio management and investment sizing. It’s also
nothing to do with my bullish outlook for copper, because as noted in the intro section today I
plan to re-deploy the funds raised from the partial sale to other open copper trades such asf
Amerigo Resources (ARG.to), McEwen Mining (MUX…yes, it’s a Cu trade at the moment), QC
Copper & Gold (QCCU.v) and Aldebaran (ALDE.v).
After taking a fully bullish position in CMMC for so long, the decision to reduce (again be clear,
NOT sell) required context and as the week draw to a close, I decided the best way of doing it
was to provide clear context on portfolio sizing, as well as the reasons why I’m happy with the
other large positions held. You may note that only last weekend in IKN660 I wrote, “For my
money, CMMC is worth a lot more than anything under C$4.00 with copper trading where it
is…” and be clear that my opinion hasn’t changed. Today’s decision to rebalance the portfolio
and reduce CMMC is not the 180° opposite to the opinion that the stock is worth more on its
fundamentals, even after seeing the upside potential’s edge taken away by the “costless” collar
announced last week (and we’ll see exactly how costless it turns out to be come December 31st,
as I have my doubts). Instead, it’s a recognition that CMMC’s upside may be limited and this
weekend, other trades offer more appeal. If I were 100% sure that CMMC had topped out at its
current price there would be no point in merely reducing and I’d be a complete seller. That is
not the case (and I cannot stress this enough), the decision cannot be distilled into a soundbite
and anyone saying “That (expletive deleted) Mark is bailing on my Copper Mountain trade”
would simply be wrong. My mistake is to be overbought, rather than bought, in CMMC and with
an upcoming 2022 guidance that’s likely to be under the booked 2021 production, other copper
trades on my list provide better upside and exposure to copper’s bullish year.
Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) in January 2022
After that long diatribe and hand-wringing session on Copper Mountain, we move quickly on to
better news and a much shorter note on Amerigo Resources (ARG.to). The reason this one is
brief is because it got covered in detail only last week. In IKN660 last weekend we considered
the ARG 4q21 production and 2022 guidance NR and came to the two-word conclusion, “In
Line”, with the share price supported by what we now see from the company. To jog memories
a little further, here’s a segment of the conclusion from last weekend:
The bottom line: ARG delivered what was expected of it in 4q21 and while its guidance
may under-promise in order to over-deliver on the year, it’s now clearly in cash cow
mode and keen to return benefits to shareholders. On 2022 guidance alone, we can
fully justify today’s higher share price with risks now confined to execution and the
vagaries of the price of copper. That latter will never go away fully, but as this desk
expects copper prices to move higher this year, we’re definitely on the right side of
this trade.
For more, please refer to last weekend’s edition as this note is going to get straight to the
point: With the decision to re-balance copper exposure, buying more ARG at this point is an
obvious way forward and while the more speculative cash will go to McEwen Mining (MUX)
(plus the smaller trades in QCCU.v and ALDE.v if possible), at least some of the funds will go to
12

averaging up on this winner. What ARG offers in January 2022 is better upside leverage to
copper prices than CMMC, as well as the potential for a bonanza gain if the mooted corporate
battle moves into the public realm. It wouldn’t need to be a vindictive or poisonous battle
either, even a “friendly decision” by Chair Zeitler to step aside would be enough for the market
to put two and two together, remember what happened to Los Andes Copper (LA.v) when the
Beaty boys took control and then bid ARG higher on its new-found access to capital. Even if the
corporate shenanigans don’t appear and the current team stays in place, the new shareholder-
friendly policies at ARG mean it’s a solid purchase at current levels and capable of going much
higher if the copper price obliges.
McEwen Mining (MUX) in January 2022
Before another word, I need to qualify this fifth and final entry in today’s list. As the newest
among the higher weighted positions of the Stocks to Follow list, it may not yet be in the Top
Five in absolute money terms for my back pocket but, if things go to plan, it’s going to become
a large weight position. I certainly have some room to add to my personal position due to
today’s rebalancing plans (as well as the cash recently banked from the sale of GBR) and,
added to the fact we have real news to report today, this January 2022 update on McEwen
Mining (MUX) is going to be longer than that of Amerigo Resources, above.
We begin with newsflow and that’s backward looking, as last week saw MUX report its 4q21
production numbers without providing guidance for 2022. We noted the NR on the blog on the
day (7) and here’s a five-day chart that shows how it went down:
MUX responded reasonably, considering its 4q21 production numbers were lower than
expected. After briefly reaching and holding the psychologically important U$1.00 price line
midweek, the stock faded into Thursday afternoon and then Friday, but that was more a
consequence of the soft equities markets and the generalized selling in PM stocks than anything
we can blame on Rob McEwen. In fact, the company’s “Chief Owner” may have helped for a
change, as he has started marketing MUX and McEwen Copper on the back of Los Azules. Note
last week this Bloomie interview (8) that starts this way:
“Vast deposits and more welcoming policies have turned Argentina into a lithium hot-
spot in recent years. Now the global copper industry is taking another look at the South
American nation.
That’s the view of Rob McEwen, whose namesake company is drilling a property in
San Juan province near the border with Chile. Called Los Azules, it’s attracted the
attention of large producers such as Vale SA, Anglo American Plc and Barrick Gold
Corp. as a potential acquisition, he said. All three companies declined to comment.
Later in the report he talked up the improving political risk of doing business in Argentina, with
quotes such as, “We’ve seen a number of majors come in and take a close look at Argentina,
that in itself is giving more comfort to foreign investments.” Which is fair enough, particularly
considering the policy announcement made by the Alberto Fernández government in San Juan
last Tuesday (see Regional Politics, below). For what it’s worth, without setting the world on fire
I thought MUX traded fairly well last week, including that difficult Friday when it held the 94c
and 95c level, an improvement on the way it had previously been ignored by the market and
the overall impression of the 4q21 number is that of a bullet dodged.
13

Looking in more detail about what we learned last week, the first two charts below (that also
made the blog last week) show consolidated numbers. First the quarterly breakdown:
MUX: Quarterly GEO production
14
02
3.42
4.22
9.42
7.12
22
5.32
8.61
9.91
4.61
2.32
7.22
4.42
5.12
2.42
1.22
9.41
2.02 9
2.01
9.51
5.41
8.41
4.51
7.61
9.31
3.81
5.22
6.12
3.12
2.02
59.91
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15 10
5
0
81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4
source: company filings
OEG
zoK
San José 49%
Own GEOs
Preliminary consolidated production came to 40,150 Gold Equivalent Ounces (GEO), slightly
lower than preceding quarters. Production was slightly lower at the MUX 100% owned
operations at Gold Bar and Fox Complex (plus remnant production from El Gallo Mexico), as
well as the 49% owned Minera Santa Cruz (MSC) JV with Hochschild in Argentina. As for the
annual comparatives…
GEO 000s MUX: GEO production 2018 to 2021
200 El Gallo
Gold Bar
180
Fox
160
MSC (49%)
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2018 2019 2020 2021
source: MUX filings
…things were better than the trainwreck 2020, but that wasn’t difficult and what matters more
is 2019 as MUX is still lagging on its previous year of production under Fox and Gold Bar. Now
for a closer look at the individual mines:
MSC (100%): production in AuEq, per qtr
3.03
2.91
4.03 1.03
1.43
7.04 9.24 4.04
AuEq Koz
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1q20 2q20 3q20 4q20 1q21 2q21 3q21 4q21
source: MUX filings
MSC is here presented at 100%, with MUX getting 49% pro-rata and the 40.4k oz preliminary
gold equivalent ounce production was slightly lower than expected. Rob McEwen made mention
of that during his Bloomberg interview, saying MSC had been affected by Omicron in the last
few weeks and HOC had rotated its staff levels as a result. Overall, a slight miss on what was
expected but it wasn’t desperately bad. We also know MUX has already banked its U$2.3m
dividend cheque for the quarter, which is what really matters. Moving on, here’s Fox Complex:

Fox Complex: Prod and Sales in AuEq, per qtr
15
4.21
5.51
8.9
2.31
2.7
7.21
0.8 7.9 6.8
6.2
6.5
0.8
3.5
9.6 4.8 4.9
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4
AuEq Koz
Prod
Sold
source: MUX filings
In the NR, MUX stated the 9,460 oz GEO for 4q21 were “in-line with our expectations”, which
can only mean expectations were low. Even if we take into account the change during the
quarter from the depleted and lower grade Black Fox deposit to the higher-grading and easier
mining Froome, that was a miss and on grade alone, we’d expect better from this arm of MUX
in the quarters to come. We assume sales of 9,400 oz for the quarter and will find out the truth
later, when MUX files its 4q21 financials and provides guidance for the year ahead.
Moving to Gold Bar, MUX stated “production of 9,950 GEOs was above our expectations” and
once again, that’s more about their low hurdles than anything we expected. The mine
reportedly changed contractors during the quarter and normal production paused for a couple
of days but even so, this quarter is nobody’s idea of a blowout.
Gold Bar: Production AuEq, per qtr
1.2
9.7
11 7.9 1.9
1.6 8.6 9.5 4.7
1.41
4.21
59.9
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4
AuEq Koz
source: MUX filings
However and as noted above, the market gave MUX a pass on its 4q21 production numbers and
overall, I think Mr. Market got it right. MUX is alreadt beaten down to under a buck and the
reason to be long in 2022 is for its turnaround potential, not because it’s currently firing on all
cylinders via an expected sparkling final quarter of 2021. This trade looks to the future and not
the past and on the precious metals side, Gold Bar should see better guidance dfor 2022 on
producton and costs, while Fox Complex in 1q22 is now well into the new Froome muck and we
should see the type of production lift from an extra gram per tonne of gold going through the
machine. However, the real reason to be long MUX in 2022 is Los Azules and we now await the
next milestone, as MUX told us it would wrap up the second U$40m of its U$80m financing for
the wholly owned subsidiary by the end of this month, January 2022. That means next week
and while we can allow leeway, the Los Azules chatter should start soon and continue into the
spinco IPO later in the year
As a result, the lion’s share of the rebalancing cash from the partial sale of Copper Mountain
planned for this week will go into MUX, taking advantage of its sub-dollar price before the real
newsflow begins. This isn’t a trade I’ll be wedded to either, the plan is to look for and gain
leverage over the near or medium term against the price of copper and the growing opportunity
to get into a large porphyry copper project as it moves to pre-feas stage. Along with the
expected bullish guidance from MUX in 2022, I can’t see Rob McEwen allowing this stock to
remain this low for much longer and will buy accordingly.

Stocks to Follow
Of the 15 stocks on the open list this time last week, eight were winners on the week (RIO.v,
CMMC.to, MUX, DSV.v, ALDE.v, APN.v, MIRL.cse, GBR.v), two were unchanged (MAI.v,
QCCU.v) and five were losers (ARG.to, TMQ, PA.v, SMD.v, MENE.v) and thanks to the big
percentage win in Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v up 24.5%) as that stock caught up a little, the basket did
better than the GDXJ (+1.5% W-o-W) and that’s good. However, there were two heavy
percentage losers in the shape of Palamina Corp (PA.v down 31.3%) and Mene Inc (MENE.v
down 10.1%), so it was hardly an unqualified success of a week, either.
With the sale of Great Bear (GBR.v) we are now back to 14 open positions, one less than our
self-imposed maximum. Eight of the stocks are in the green, six are are in the red.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.55 161.9% $1.14 tgt Aug'20, #1 idea
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v STR BUY C$0.83 22-Apr-18 C$0.66 -20.5% $1.30 1st tgt, building now
Recommended stocks (In order of preference)
Copper Mountain CMMC.to hold C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.94 15.9% Reducing by up to ½, Jan22
Amerigo Res ARG.to STR BUY C$1.27 12-Dec-21 C$1.62 27.6% 2022 Cu bet, mgmt change
McEwen Mining MUX STR BUY U$0.90 2-Jan-22 U$0.95 5.6% 1q22 trade, turnaround story
Discovery Silver DSV.v STR BUY C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.88 6.2% Serious Ag play, 1st tgt $2.75
Trilogy Metals TMQ BUY U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.55 -15.8% S32 suitor, stalled
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v STR BUY C$0.26 25-Apr-21 C$0.31 19.2% Now drilling. Easy hold
Palamina Corp PA.v SPEC BUY C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.165 -44.1% Au expl in S.Peru, early dusters
Strategic Metals SMD.v BUY C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.36 -14.3% Canada land bet+Zn in FY22
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v SPEC BUY C$0.68 16-May-21 C$1.10 61.8% Waiting on drill assays
Altiplano Metals APN.v SPEC BUY C$0.31 17-Sep-21 C$0.33 6.5% Cheap entry, 1q22 re-rate
Minera IRL MIRL.cse hold C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.08 -59.0% CEO change will move stock
Long-term non-mining hold
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.67 6-Dec-20 C$0.62 -7.5% LT bet, adding slowly
Closed in 2022 closed close price
Great Bear Res GBR.v Jan'22 C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.58 80.5% Bought out by Kinross, print
2015 to 2021 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on a few of our covered stocks:
Great Bear Resources (GBR.v): POSITION CLOSED. Meanwhile, the filing of the agenda
materials on Thursday for the merger meeting regarding the Kinross (KGC) offer added an extra
level of probability to the tabled deal.
QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v): ADDING. Without reiterating the decision to re-balance other
positions by selling some CMMC and buying some more ARG.to and MUX (see above), here in
the notes we make sure that QCCU (and possibly ALDE) get on the official copper rebalancing
list, too. Starting with QCCU and in trading, this had a second week in which anyone wanting to
own a piece of QCCU had to pay more than the weekend close price, but also a second week in
which daytraders ruled its Friday and the closing out of positions late week saw it lose all
midweek gains and close UNCH. So be it, the company clearly needs real news to break back
above the imposed ceiling price of 35c. Worth a lot more even today, it still beats me as to why
this found equilibrium between 30c and 35c, rather than 40c and 50c. Then again I’m a rotten
fliptrader, but as the decision is to re-deploy a small amount of the cash from CMMC into this
stock I’m happy to see it this low. Expect my cost average to click up this time next weekend.
Aldebaran Resources (ALDE.v): ADDING if possible. This isn’t 1005 guaranteed because
16

it’s not easy to get a correct bid and then enter ALDE, also this isn’t going to be a big additions
even if I get some. With that said, ALDE is attracting some interest from small traders willing to
pay up for ownership as we await results from the first round of drilling at Altar. That means
there is some liquidity, but being long already means I’m not desperate to pay whatever price
for another tranche. The stock may also be getting some reflective glory from the successes of
Filo Mining and Josemaria, also in San Juan, plus the Argentina policy initiative announced last
week will add extra spotlight (see Regional Politics).
Trilogy Metals (TMQ): However, I’m going to pass until further notice on using TMQ as a
place to add copper exposure. I used the word last week and I’ll use it again today, TMQ is
becoming a frustrating stock to own. There’s also a clear disconnect between its marketing and
operations, as on Wednesday January 19th we got to watch the previously scheduled webinar
with CEO Tony Giardini, as mentioned in last weekend’s notes. In that, CEO Giardini talked up
the company’s 2021 achievements and then its plans for this year in which several things were
“about to happen”:
 The 2022 drill program, including infill and definition drilling at the main Arctic project
and scout drilling at outlaying targets, was about to start
 The EIS permitting process was about to go to the next important stage with the
company about to file its Notice of Intent which will start the permitting process (se to
run for 2 to 2.5 years)
 The company was about to release its first resource count for the secondary Bornite
copper/cobalt resource, located next to its main camp.
The webinar was a reasonable show but was more about recapping known information and
adding some details than anything news. However, the very next day TMQ released its maiden
resource for Bornite, with the copper resource summary table as seen here:
Can anyone tell me why this had to happen one day after the opportunity to ask questions of
the company CEO? If the release was scheduled for the very next day, how difficult would it
have been to coordinate a more meaningful webinar? As it happens, while Bornite isn’t the
main target for TMQ or its partner South32 and there’s a decently sized resource taking shape.
It would need plenty of extra work and drilling in order to understand the engineering required
for the U/G portion, but we now have more questions than answers about its 5.3Bn lbs of
copper, plus separately reported 88m lbs of contained cobalt.
During the webinar, the company made play of the good cash position at the company, the
U$6.8m treasury is more than enough for TMQ while the JV cash & receivables position of
U$125m, funded by 50% partner South32, speaks for itself. However, when set against the
U$28m exploration budget agreed for 2022 it implies that South32 isn’t in any hurry to spend
treasury and is in for the longer haul. Which is probably what it wants to imply, as it also sends
the market a signal that there’s no urgent reason to buy in here as yet and the root cause
behind the share price inertia we see today and the resulting implication that retail speculators
such as you and I risk of holding “dead money” over an extended period. That suits South32
more than TMQ, of course. The tangled web of business…
Discovery Silver (DSV.v): Another wild week for DSV though in general terms, while slightly
more volatile than the average it only did what other silver stocks did over the five day period.
17

Wednesday saw silver being bought up at 10%+ rises for many stocks, this one included. Then
as Thursday failed to provide a meaningful follow-through, the silver sub-sector’s smartest
traders were the ones that took their fliptrade profits earlier, rather than later.
Mene Inc (MENE.v): Still no 4q21 production NR from MENE, which is something of a
surprise considering that the company provided a 4q20 preliminary sales number on January
4th 2021. On checking the exact wording in the last NR, CEO Roy Sebag said that they’d “…look
forward to updating shareholders on our year-end results once they have been finalized”, which
I understood in one way at the time but in hindsight, should have checked. So I put in a mail to
CEO Sebag this weekend and will report back once there’s word.
In trading, MENE dropped on the week but as the bid/ask continues to be wide enough to drive
the proverbial truck through, that doesn’t mean much. What I can say is that it’s almost
impossible to fish for cheap shares on-spec and the way forward is to put in a “stink bid” (a
term I normally avoid as it’s used badly by many market commentators, but in this case it’s the
right fit) and see if someone bites. But as I haven’t been leaving bids open, so far no extra
shares here in 2022.
Minera IRL (MIRL.cse): We hear that MIRL has now conducted two due diligence site visit
with companies interested in buying Ollachea from the company. No word on whether either of
them is interested enough to move past mere talk and make an offer to buy the asset.
The Copper Basket
After three weeks of 2022, The Copper Basket shows a gain of 1.14% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/22 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Copper Mtn CMMC.to 3.42 210.166 828.05 3.94 15.2%
2 Oroco Res OCO.v 2.04 192.689 402.72 2.09 2.5%
3 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.77 88.028 334.51 3.80 0.8%
4 Nevada Copper NCU.to 0.71 448.437 322.87 0.72 1.4%
5 Western Copper WRN.to 2.00 151.426 301.34 1.99 -0.5%
6 Hot Chili HCH.v 1.53 109.223 174.76 1.60 4.6%
7 Meridian Min MNO.v 1.18 153.735 170.65 1.11 -5.9%
8 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.84 114.495 125.94 1.10 31.0%
9 Regulus Res. REG.v 1.06 101.845 109.99 1.08 1.9%
10 Kutcho Copper KC.v 0.88 103.94 92.51 0.89 1.1%
11 C3 Metals CCCM.v 0.16 645.379 90.35 0.14 -12.5%
12 Doré Copper DCMC.v 0.79 66.123 46.95 0.71 -10.1%
13 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.58 79.24 44.37 0.56 -3.4%
14 QC Copper QCCU.v 0.34 129.06 40.01 0.31 -8.8%
15 Coast Copper COCO.v 0.13 41.335 5.37 0.13 0.0%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg 1.14%
Another good week for copper, but this time our basket of copper stocks were influenced as
much by the board market weakness in equities as the strength in the underlying metal. Our
overall basket average lost a slim 0.4%, pulled down by five losers (OCO.v, NCU.to, MNO.v,
CCCMJ.v, ECU.v) and ignored by three UNCHers (HCHv, QCCU.v, COCO.v) and while there were
seven winners on the week (CMMC.to, MARI.to, WRN.to, REG.v, ALDE.v, KC.v, DCMC..v) the
biggest move was Kutcho Copper (KC.v up 8.5%) and most of the others were small. To the
downside, drops in Oroco (OCO.v down 9.5%), Element 29 (ECU.v down 8.2%) and Meridian
(MNO.v down 6.7%) were enough to tip the balance.
18

As for copper-the-metal, the chart shows how the U$4.40/lb line was quickly bought by bargain
hunters and prices were back above U$4.50/lb before the week was done, but this time there
was no Friday futures market attack and the line held.
So forget the DJIA, S&P500 and their transitory effects on copper stocks, what we saw in the
copper pit last week fits well with the current house position. However, before underscoring our
bullish stance we dial up Reuters star metals columnist Andy Home, who was less motivated
about copper in his metals market column last week. To be fair, he went to print during the
early price lull and before the rally over U$4.50/lb and his argument holds less water after
watching copper rebound this quickly to the new level. His note is interesting all the same (9)
as it’s better to test one’s own position with the counter view. Also he may well point to the
reason to expect higher copper prices without even realizing it in his note entitled “Column: No
new year resolution for out-of-favour copper market”. The general thrust of his position is how
lacklustre trading and open interest volume indicate a range-bound copper price. That’s not a
strong argument, as trading can pick up at the drop of a hat (as seen on Wednesday), but also
comparing volumes now to this time last year in the way he does is somewhat disingenuous.
January 2021 saw copper prices climb, and rising prices in anything will attract outside interest.
However, the segment that caught my eye most is this:
The big picture was of falling copper volumes across the board in the second half of
2021. In December, average daily volumes were down 16% year-on-year on the LME,
25% on the CME and 44% on the ShFE.
The latter two saw some offset from higher options volumes, suggesting investors were
looking to express a view on copper price direction without committing to an outright
futures position, a trading strategy typical of a range-bound market.
It’s clear China will try its hardest to keep a lid on copper prices as it’s in its best interest, but
last year’s successful strategy of speaking softly and carrying a big stick is now beyond them. In
2021, China could use strategic reserves to supply home end-users and occasionally dump bulk
onto the world’s official inventories, but this year it has no arsenal of copper left to use. So
instead it has tried to influence the futures market and that works for a while, but without
physical metal to back up positions open interest is challenged and the result is what you see
above, with copper bulls first ready to buy the dip and then bid the metal back up without
facing the same challenge in either futures or options trades. That looks like the pattern noted
by Andy Home and what’s more, the sheer lack of available physical would depress trading
volumes. Bear attacks via futures and options markets can work once or twice, but China can’t
have its physical supply cake and eat it, the cake has a price tag. With China now the consumer
of 55% of the world’s copper production according to Cochilco’s newly published 2021 figures,
its voracious appetite is only getting stronger. More cake, higher prices.
However, one thing that Home gets right is the likely importance and influence of inventory
data in the first part of 2022 as the cycle moves to end-user de-stocking and world inventories
re-stock. For the latest, we move to our regular weekly copper inventories data:
19

 The aggregate total in the three official world systems rose for the second time in two
weeks, indicating that the de-stock is upon us and all three official systems registered
net inflows. The aggregate addition was 20,179 metric tonnes (mt) and the final total
207,591mt on Friday.
 At the Shanghai SHFE, another small add of 4,772mt to relieve a little, but the
35,102,mt total is still very low. Our regular chart below shows we’re still waiting for
the real surge and if it doesn’t come soon, it’s late.
 Meanwhile at the LME, we finally saw a meaningful influx of copper as three shipments
into non-Asia warehouses (two to Rotterdam and one to New Orleans) saw total
tonnage under LME control rise 13,475mt to close at 99,775mt, just under the six figure
level. Still low and seeing tonnage land in The USA also catches the eye, as the
normally backwater LME New Orleans depot now carries nearly 20% of its total stock.
 The Comex rise of a modest 1,932mt brings its total copper stocks to 72,714mt and
adds a little to the argument, as laid out last weekend. The sight of LME USA adds is
another potential influence for a copper price war in the making.
As noted above, the regular SHFE warehouse chart shows little change and that stubborn, ultra-
low stock level continues.
Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2014 to date
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
20
31'13ceD ht9 ht81 ht72 ht5tco ht41 dn22 dr3yam ht21 ht02 ht92 ht7bef ht71 ht62 ht4peS ht31 ht92 ht9 ht81 ht72 ht5von ht41 ht52 ht01 ht91 ht82 ht6naJ ht71 ht62 ht4gua ht31 dn22 202ts1ram ht01 ht91 ht72 0202ht6ced ht41 ht52 1202ht4luj ht21 ts12
Mt Cu
|
source: Cochilco
Now for notes on a couple of basket stocks:
Oroco Resources (OCO.v): On a hunch, I decided to wait a week before commenting on the
lastest set of good drill results returned by Oroco Resources (OCO.v) from its Santo Tomas
project in Mexico (10). Once again we saw the company show its “Serious Junior” credentials,
with plenty of good information in the NR including plenty of sections, though for our purposes
the overview map (right) gives a reasonable
idea of what they delivered and all five of the
drills cutting across the known mineralization
returning the consistent grades of copper
(0.38% is right on the button, with minor gold
credits) in the long lengths of between 200m
and 300m exactly where you’d expect. The
only duster was the speculative hole N004
which tested unknown rock and would have
provided pleasant surprises, so no worries
either.
As this price chart shows, this time last week
OCO had popped nicely on the back of new
buyers, high-fiving these results. However, the

price chart also shows the market reality of OCO once again; it’s an expensive stock and the
ten-day action underscores the house view that OCO is close to fully-priced for its point on the
development track with a long way to go even before a PEA. There’s nothing wrong with hyping
a good company going about its job in the right way, but filling people’s heads with unrealistic
dreams of immediate buyouts is another story.
Regulus Resources (REG.v): Fears of a disruptive protest at AntaKori dissipated on Tuesday
as, to the great credit of the company, the locals in the immediate vicinity of the project
defended the company and its activities against the protesters, who were mostly from localities
further away and shipped in for the occasion. Trading remains quiet in REG which doesn’t
surprise, we’re still several weeks away from any real news and the results of the first drill hole.
Aldebaran has a higher market cap these days, which is notable in passing.
C3Metals (CCCM.v): This classic Vancouver pump is beginning to look tired, which means the
insiders have cashed out what they reasonably can without attracting any more attention. Why
retailers fall for these hopeless companies constructed for the sole benefit of insiders and the
range of consultants and hangers-on that congregate around a treasury position is beyond me,
but you guys keep on doing it. Hochschild sold CCCM its concession instead of developing it
themselves because the company with over 100 years of experience in Peru had a gfood idea of
its true value, now it’s your turn to find out. As for lessons to learn, remember to run away if
you see the name Fernando Pickmann attached to any junior mining company exposed to Peru.
The Producer Basket
After three weeks of 2022, the Producer Basket shows a loss of 3.43% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/22 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 62.02 797.44 50.31 63.09 1.7%
2 Barrick GOLD 19.00 1779 34.41 19.34 1.8%
3 Franco-Nevada FNV 138.29 191.192 24.97 130.62 -5.5%
4 Agnico Eagle AEM 53.14 453.5 23.08 50.89 -4.2%
5 Wheaton PM WPM 42.93 450.3 18.37 40.80 -5.0%
6 Gold Fields GFI 10.99 887.72 9.70 10.93 -0.5%
7 Kinross Gold KGC 5.81 1320 7.46 5.65 -2.8%
8 B2Gold BTG 3.93 1055.6 3.74 3.54 -9.9%
9 Alamos Gold AGI 7.69 392.503 2.76 7.03 -8.6%
10 Sandstorm SAND 6.20 191.4 1.17 6.12 -1.3%
All prices and stock quotes in U$ Port. avg -3.43%
For the second time in three weeks, our list underperformed the GDX benchmark by a
significant amount. We rose by just over 1%, GDX rose by 2.2% and that’s due to its higher
weighting in the Tier 1 stocks, particularly the big winners on the week Barrick and Newmont.
There were six winners in all (NEM, GOLD, FNV, WPM, GFI, KGC) but four losers wasn’t good
21

(AEM, BTG, AGI, SAND) and the strategy of having a bunch of lower market cap companies to
provide leverage to an improving gold price is simply not working right.
Barrick (GOLD) and Newmont (NEM): What made GOLD and NEM out-perform the rest last
week? That was the Barrick 4q21 preliminary production report (11). The NR title included
“delivers on production targets”, so no surprises to learn that the company hi the expected
numbers of production and sales of gold and copper in the quarter but the reason for the out-
performing shares was buried further down the NR and we quote:
“…Q4 gold cost of sales per ounce2 is expected to be 3-5% lower than Q3 2021, total
cash costs per ounce3 are expected to be 1-3% lower than the prior quarter, and gold
all-in sustaining costs per ounce3 are expected to be 4-6% lower than in Q3 2021.”
In a sector now taking cost inflation for granted, those lines read like a dream for Barrick’s
upcoming financials and, thanks to the way GOLD and NEM share a large proportion of their
production via the Nevada Gold Mines JV as well as Pueblo Viejo in Dominican Republic, what
was sauce for the goose was also sauce for the gander. The cost decrease delivered by Barrick
(and by implication Newmont, which doesn’t announce its own production numbers before filing
its annual financials on February 14th) is tied to what the other side of the coin is now framing
as “union busting” around the Nevada Gold Mines operation. To get the anecdotal information,
this long reportage (12) entitled “How a mega gold-mining merger tightened a company’s hold
on Northern Nevada” that’s been picked up by several high traffic websites is highly
recommended and worth a careful read. Here are a few excerpts:
In the final days of 2019, Ches Carney noticed something strange on the bulletin boards at the
Northern Nevada gold mines where he had worked for nearly three decades. Stores in the nearby
town of Elko were playing holiday music, but Carney was upset: The labor union documents,
normally posted to bulletin boards, had disappeared.
…
As a union steward for the International Union of Operating Engineers Local 3, he advocated for
his co-workers in disputes with the company. Near the end of the year, the name on Carney’s
paycheck changed from Newmont, one of the world’s largest metal miners and an operator of
several unionized mines in the area, to something different: Nevada Gold Mines. When Carney
confronted a supervisor about the missing union documents, he said he was essentially told that
the union was no more and to get over it. The union, which first organized Newmont workers in
1965, negotiated a new contract for about 1,300 production and maintenance workers in early
2019. But by the end of that year, management stopped recognizing it. There was a new boss in
town.
…
Right before Christmas, roughly six months after the two companies formally merged their
Nevada operations, one of Carney’s Newmont bosses told him he had to sign a new employment
agreement with Nevada Gold Mines. His “new job” offered new rules, different benefits—and
effectively no more union. The date of his firing and rehiring, he said, was just before the holidays.
“It was a total surprise,” he recalled. “Unexpected.”
…
In a subsequent court filing that accused Nevada Gold Mines of failing to recognize the union, the
National Labor Relations Board (NLRB), the federal agency that enforces labor law, noted that the
new company’s actions “left many employees feeling terrified and betrayed.”
…
The consequences of Barrick and Newmont’s deal rippled through the mines, the local economy
that depends on them, and the Western Shoshone, Paiute and Goshute tribes, whose unceded
ancestral homeland is where much of the mining takes place. In Nevada, the fates of many
people and communities are entangled with the gold industry. The merger meant that one
megacompany was in charge, running what Barrick boasts is the world’s largest gold-mining
complex.
…
One former employee who worked in Nevada mining for about a decade, speaking on condition of
anonymity, said things got so bad after the merger that he resigned, frustrated by what he
believed was a “toxic” culture. He felt Nevada Gold Mines erased all boundaries between its
employees’ work and personal lives, viewing them simply as “disposable assets.
Though framed as a hard luck story on long-term workers, it’s difficult to get too emotional over
people who’d enjoyed some of the highest paying mining jobs in the world for decades
suddenly complaining over enforced pay cuts. I’d agree that some of the details are cases of
capitalism being harsh but overall, there’s nothing you wouldn’t expect. The NEM/GOLD JV in
Nevada was predicated on cost cutting and operations synergies, so it’s not difficult to work out
where the deep cuts began. The city of Elko was populated by mine employees able to auction
22

themselves to the highest bidder, but since the formation of the Barrick/Newmont JV have
found there’s only one employer of size left in town. One person’s “union busting” is another’s
cost cutting efficiencies an the shoe suddenly being on the other foot doesn’t mean destitute
and hungry mine workers; it means the end of a good thing, that’s all.
We applaud GOLD for its improving costs profile, no mean achievement for such a large
company to be able to buck the sector trend.
The TinyCaps List
After three weeks of 2022, the TinyCaps show a gain of 9.74% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/22 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Aurelius Min AUL.v 0.24 37.134 13.18 0.355 47.9%
Golden Pursuit GDP.v 0.13 34.638 4.85 0.14 3.8%
Infield Min INFD.v 0.06 48.276 2.90 0.06 0.0%
Kingfisher Met KFR.v 0.30 84.57 21.57 0.255 -15.0%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.12 57.296 6.59 0.115 -4.2%
Manitou Gold MTU.v 0.06 344.47 20.67 0.06 0.0%
Melkior Res MKR.v 0.295 24.011 8.52 0.355 20.3%
Precipitate Gold PRG.v 0.105 129.322 16.81 0.13 23.8%
Signature Res SGU.v 0.07 238.4 17.88 0.075 7.1%
Winshear Gold WINS.v 0.08 61.585 5.54 0.09 12.5%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 9.74%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $20m. They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a
little and allowed sub-U$20m market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, but it was a particularly depressing exercise to trawl through the whole of the TSXV and find companies
that are small enough, but with life in them. The vast majority of sub-$20m stocks are broken stocks, either
traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2020. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
The tinycaps remain quiet for a third week running, though the modest upward momentum
seen since the end of the Tax Loss Selling season kept going and that’s a good thing. Last week
saw three losers (KFR.v, LMS.v, MTU.v) but as they all fell by exactly half a cent, no damage
done. Two prices finished unchanged on the week (GDP.v, INFR.v) and that leaves five winners
(AUL.v, MKR.v, PRG.v, SGU.v, WINS.v) and the biggest was from Winshear (WINS.v up 20.0%)
as that stock re-claimed the price it lost the week before.
There was no news out of any of our ten, so a quick thought on just one of the stocks and we’ll
23

move on:
Precipitate Gold (PRG.v): PRG floated as high as 15c midweek, though volume was very low
and it only took one 200k share seller to show up on Friday lunchtime and the stock dumped
back down. Operating in Dominican Republic and more recently in Newfoundland Canada, PRG
may have benefited from the promotional stories being wrapped around GoldQuest Mining
(GQC.v, see below) or even the emerging Newfie area play, but there’s no real reason to have
this company on the map as yet.
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future
I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet aretrictly neutral.
Regional politics
Argentina announces a major new policy for renewable energy
Pay attention ladies and gents, as what we saw last week in San Juan Argentina is a prime
example of how GDP growth can actually happen and large-scale projects can really move
forward in The Basket Case Country. On Tuesday, President Alberto Fernández along with most
of the big hitter members of his ministerial cabinet, (including “Superminister” Matias Kulfas of
Production, then FinMin Guzmán, Interior “Wado” Pérez, Environment Cabandié, Energy
Martínez, Schale Industry and others) travelled to San Juan for a major new policy
announcement centred on renewable energy. Called the “National Renewable Cluster”, the
initiative is the type of State/Private investment program that Argentina does well and can
create true wealth and this desk expects plenty of activity and investment dollars to start
moving around the combined provinces of San Juan, Catamarca, La Rioja, Mendoza, Neuquén
and Río Negro. The gig last week also saw the respective governors of each province present,
including host governor Sergio Uñac of San Juan, Arabela Carreras of Río Negro, Raúl Jalil of
Catamarca, Rodolfo Suárez of Mendoza and Ricardo Quintela of La Rioja, as well as Omar
Gutiérrez of Neuquén who joined them virtually via an online connection. You the reader are
offered this extended roll call at the start of this note to underscore the importance of this
project for the Alberto Fernández government and all that is very good news for the country’s
mining sector, as you will see below.
The event, news conference, speeches and soundbites focused on the need for Argentina to
take the initiative as regards renewable energy. President Fernández took the lead and made
sure the message got across (13), as the combo of progress, environmental protection and
“Free Dollars From The Government Please Sign Here” is absolute catnip to the average
Argentine. The message was that Climate Change is serious problem and as a Paris Agreement
and COP26 Glasgow signatory, Argentina must step up and do something. And while
environmental damage also implies enormous costs to the country and to the wider world,
there were ways to both improve society and advance the economy at the same time. In the
words of President Fernández combating environmental pollution means (translated)
“…substituting fossil fuels for renewable energy, in which solar and wind (generation) are
central. Here we are making it possible that Argentina has renewable energy made in Argentina
by Argentines and that is called sovereignty, even though that might upset some people.”
It was pitch-perfect politicking from the President, which even managed to instil patriotic pride
in the “National Renewable Cluster” plan. The presser was an hours-long event and these pages
won’t go into every detail, but in the most general terms the plan is to combine productive
efforts and technology from the public and private sector, with a first goal to provide 20% of its
energy supply from renewable sources by 2025. The emphasis will be on electricity generation
in this first stage of the State-controlled and funded green productive revolution, with
protagonists solar, wind and hydroelectric power generation. Then as the plan rolls out and the
primary goals met, according to those assembled Argentina must continue to adapt for future
challenges by embracing the need for renewable energy via the production of “green energy
24

materials” as well as general value addition by industrialization (Fernández used the example of
making the silicon plaques for solar panels and not just exporting silica for others to
industrialize). Though the President was protagonist it wasn’t all his show, as Superminister
Matías Kulfas was also on-hand to outline some of the the business opportunities. As well as
mandating State run entities to begin their development plans, Kulfas explained that just in the
first stage of development of renewable energy infrastructure for domestic use (and potentially
export) would cost the government U$1Bn but provide 6,250 jobs for Argentines. All strong
subjects for the framework of the “Green Energy Future”, as behind the noble cause of
promoting the clean and green new deal, businesses and entrepreneurs by that time pricked up
their ears with dollar signs floating in front of their eyes. There’s no better boondoggle in
Argentina than a “State-run economic plan” and Argentina moves quickly to set up enterprises
when it knows the State is there to provide what is akin to free money. Meanwhile and no less
important for our own sector, the other major angle of the presser and policy push is how in
one fell swoop, it pulls the rug out from under the anti-everything environmental protester
position. You can tell how well the policy move went down because the country’s opposition
media channels had very little to say about the event, always a good sign and they too have
recognized that this is a way to make quick and easy money.
However, the key point for us is how mining gets coat-tailed onto the new policy and what’s
more, the plan entails the permitting and building of large-scale copper mines before the rest of
the green revolution can happen. Magically, in the eyes of the general public mining is no
longer the dirty, polluting industry only there to make a bunch of foreigners rich. Instead,
mining was brought in to the argument by the government as a key part of the new green
energy revolution and it wasn’t for nothing that the whole entourage went to San Juan for this
policy announcement. On the back of objectives regarding solar panels and electric cars for one
and all, the government made it clear that a central part of this policy move is copper, as in the
mining and production thereof. The team pointed out to those assembled that Argentina would
need “six times as much copper” (14) as it currently uses for its green energy revolution.
President Fernandez also said, “This isn’t a fight between environmentalists and those who
promote mining, because in fact we need mining in order to keep living in the conditions in
which we live”. Also, “When we speak of renewable energy for the development of
electromobility, we are saying that we need more copper and to better develop the mining
sector” and before handing off to his ministerial team, “We need to learn how to produce these
minerals while preserving the environment and respecting social agreements where mining
production is developed.”
With the vision set, he then handed off to the ministerial team who quickly developed on large-
scale formal mining future in Argentina for copper and other green metals (lithium, etc). They
then told Argentina the truth about what was about to happen along the length of its side of
the Andean Cordillera, that mining was about to become a thing in the country, rather than a
minor or secondary-level industry and all for the greater good of the fatherland. Again, the
presser was too big to encapsulate in this type of strategy note but as one example, here
Superminister Kulfas with his view on where mining fits into the larger plan (15):
“We have a very good view of the development of mining activity in the country, mining
is part of the solution and there are growth perspectives for the sector. In Argentina,
you have a government that supports the development of the mining sector and all its
chain of added value, with a legal framework that brings security (to investments) such
as fiscal stability, and the clear understanding of state burdens.”
It was a master class in politics and now the policy framework in place, mining now gets viewed
by the pro-Alberto electorate as a necessary evil (at worst), more likely a net positive for the
country and a win-win for the economy and environment in the near-term and long-term.
Meanwhile the right wing opposition to the Alberto government keeps very quiet, because they
are too busy buying up copper concessions, forming service companies for large projects and
going long on copper company shares to worry about political ideology any longer.
Long story short, copper got green-lighted in Argentina last week, it’s now up to the world to
pay attention. And via a smartly framed backdoor, this new policy drive of a renewable energy
25

future sees Argentina’s government light the overdue fuse on its PEDMA mining policy initiative.
Held up for minor political and administrative issues in a couple of the key provinces, last week
cleared the logjam and means pro-mining provinces no longer need to wait for the ambivalent
or “anti-mining” regions to get on board. No matter what Chubut does about Navidad, San Juan
and the other pro-mining provinces got the green light to push hard for the development of the
large-scale copper porphyry projects in their regions and won’t need a second invitation, The
spearhead is likely to come from the Lundin Group at Josemaria/Filo de Sol, but please include
two projects owned by stocks we currently cover, namely McEwen Mining (MUX) at Los Azules
and Aldebaran (ALDE.v) at Altar. It’s why we’re long the stocks, after all.
Chile: President-Elect Boric announces his cabinet
Thursday evening saw one of the most anticipated events in the changeover period between
outgoing President Piñera and incoming President-elect Gabriel Boric of Chile, as Boric
announced his proposed cabinet of 24 ministers for when his mandate kicks off in March. World
headlines quickly grasped that 14 of the
24 posts have been given and the
nickname of “The Feminist Cabinet” soon
took off, but we on the outside should be
more interested in the market reaction to
the news (right). Chile’s stock market
index tracking ETF (ECH) has already
anticipated good news early in the week
but Friday morning jumped higher as the
appointments got general applause. Now
up over 24% from the day Boric won,
the world now views the make-up as
“lefty, but not too lefty” and the
upcoming Boric administration as a little
further left than Michelle Bachelet’s governments, but not much. In other words exactly how
The IKN Weekly has called the next Chilean government all this time, even before the second
round vote (toot-toot horn tooty-toot). Depending on your media source, the most important
news may have been that eight of the 24 ministers are “independent” (i.e. are not from Boric’s
political party, or that the 2011/2012 “Student Rebellion” leader Camila Vallejo is now General
Secretary of the government (an important coordination post normally given to a close ally of
the President). But for us, we note Mario Marcel has been given the main FinMin job (called
“Hacienda” in Chile), a centre-left economist of high standing who has worked in OECD and
BID) and Nicolas Grau is the new Minister of the Economy, Development of Tourism and while
more Lefty, will have to work under a hard-nosed moneyman in Marcel.
We’re not here for a full rundown of every appointment, however, so we move to the choice for
Minister of Mining and this desk believes that Boric has chosen well in Marcela Hernando. She is
a medical doctor by profession (in fact, a surgeon) who moved into the political realm around
20 years ago and has been a leading figure in her Antofagasta region since that time. Marcela
Hernando has been a member of Congress for the region twice as well as mayor of Antofagasta
for a term, which means she is well-versed in the ways of the mining industry (the city isn’t just
eponymous for the ANTO.L mining company, the whole place runs on mining). Hernando’s brief
will be to ensure environmental laws and regulations are adhered to and tightened up, but she
is nobody’s idea of an anti-mining militant, instead she’s a pragmatic politician, knows what can
and cannot be achieved. Her appointment has gone down well with the Chilean Chamber of
Mining (16), who said (translated), “We hope that Marcela Hernando, thanks to the diverse
public sector roles she has already had and for bring from the Antofagasta region, keeps
Chilean mining growing for the good of all the country.” For good measure let’s add in Joaquin
Villarino, current president of Chile’s Mining Council (a collective of mining sector leaders) who
said (translated), “For us, a correct choice. Marcela Hernando knows our sector well thanks to
her vast experience in diverse public roles, particularly in mining regions. She is a woman from
the mining world, we hope she is successful in her new job and the fact she is a regional player
shows through.”
26

Chile: exploration costs to rise (a little)
We known the mining industry in Chile is a target for higher State burdens going forward, via
the royalty law set to be levied on EBIT of copper and lithium sales. Aside that, last week saw
new proposals concessions delivered and expected to start under the new Boric government
which imply higher costs, but the big change is to try to combat so-called “concession
squatting” by companies that take control of an area but then don’t explore or develop it (17).
The current holding cost of exploration concession is 1/50 of a UTM per hectare and the new
plan will increase to 3/50 of a UTM per hectare and while that’s a triple, it’s still not too
onerous. To explain, a reasonable translation of “unidad tributaria mensual (UTM)” is “Monthly
Tax Unit”, a unit of cost determined by Chile’s tax people that also increases with time and
inflation. At the moment one 1UTM is around CLP 54.5. That’s around 6.8 US Cents (i.e.
U$0.0068) and isn’t much for a mining company, for example if you have a 50,000 hectare
property you are paying around U$800 per year at the moment, or $2,400 per year under the
proposed tripling of the holding charge. In other words, any normal company can cover that
cost easily enough, even with its big shift higher, but the change for exploration companies is
about holding times for concessions. Once permitted, a company has exploration rights for two
years which are then renewable two years. Instead, the plan is to award a single, non-
renewable permit that lasts for four years. At that point, the permitted company decides “use it
or lose it” and if it decides to move forward, it moves to the “exploitation” bracket of concession
holding costs. They are currently 1/30th of a UTM but the new plan pushes them to 1/10th
UTM per hectare
According to the incoming government, this change will mean 1) concession squatters” are
discouraged from trying to indefinitely hold properties that would otherwise be available to
other explorecos and 2) the rise in State treasury will be enough to pay their plans to raise
retirement State pensions. According to The IKN Weekly, the price rises won’t worry the
industry much and the real junior miners won’t be affected by the rule changes.
Panama and First Quantum
As expected last week, Panama got the attention of First Quantum (FR.to) and the two sides
came to a compromise deal on higher royalty payments, with the government now set to
receive around U$350m extra per year from the mining operation.
Mexico: The Supreme Court case against Almaden Minerals is suspended
Wednesday January 19th was going to be the day Mexico’s Supreme Court (SCJN) delivered
judgment on the validity of Alamden Minerals’ (AMM.to) Ixtaca project, but at the last minute
the case was suspended from judgment. While this is not uncommon in SCJN procedures and
the lawyer representing the locals who have brought the case against the mining company was
reported (18) not disheartened by the decision not to hand down a ruling. The conjecture is
that the SCJN realizes that its likely judgment will create a precedent on a national level that
will demand all mining projects run prior consultancies for their projects and that may also be
retroactive, so the best-guess from those on the outside is that the Supreme Court (along with
the government) is trying to find a way of agreeing with the local protesters, kick AMM out of
Mexico but also while not creating permitting issues and mayhem for the cast majority of
decent and law-abiding companies.
Market Watching
Deferring on Altiplano Metals (APN.v) again
I was going to update on Altiplano Metals (APN.v) this week but without beating round the
bush or trying to fake excuses, the way in which the main note today expanded and took my
weekend hours means that I’ve simply run out of time. I don’t think there’s any particular rush
for coverage on APN and while I like the way it is developing, I’d much prefer to dedicate the
right amount of time and concentration to the story than rush out poor copy this weekend.
As these charts show, it may be a tinycap but APN has done its job by being a market
27

performer in the copper space. At some point it will deliver market moving news, but as that’s
unlikely to happen in the next seven days I’m going to defer coverage on this small trade until
next weekend. Apologies, but it’s 11:30pm Sunday and I’m tired.
Also deferring on Palamina Corp (PA.v)
True also for Palamina Corp, the small open trade that has started badly and got worse. The
share price took a dive last week after it announced dusters at its first four holes and After the
NR hit, I caught up with CEO Andrew Thomson on a videocall. We went through what the
results means and what’s next for the company and I took plenty of notes, but the expansion of
the main note also means I’ve run out of time and energy to cover the company properly.
There’s nothing here that cannot wait a week either and you shouldn’t expect an immediate
rebound in prices, instead the company is going to consider its options and decide on a 2022
strategy in duie course. I’m a holder at these levels and perhaps a small buyer in a few weeks’
time, but first let’s see how low the share price can go. However to be clear on last week’s drill
results, dusters are dusters and while CEO Thomson put the best foot forward on matters
during our call, “geologically interesting” isn’t a reason to buy an exploreco.
Conclusion
IKN661 is done, we end with bullet points:
 These long strategy notes are becoming a bad habit . This week’s overview of the
way I view my five largest junior positions came from the decision to lighten on Copper
Mountain (CMMC.to) and re-balance the funds in other copper holdings and wasn’t a
note I expected to write.
28

 However, in my view this weekend’s most important information is the Regional Politics
note on Argentina’s move into the green energy revolution, as it opens the door wide to
the large-scale copper mining industry. Play the information the way you prefer, but
personally I think that loading up on McEwen Mining (MUX) at under U$1 is an absolute
no-brainer. Aldebaran (ALDE.v) is also valid as long as you can get enough position,
meanwhile you won’t hear a word of dissent form me if you ignore my preferred
vehicles and “Go Lundin” instead.
 Be long copper, above all get that one right.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stocks are Minera Alamos (MAI.v) and
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v). Flash updates will be sent if required by events. And be long copper.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best, Mark
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://quoteinvestigator.com/2013/10/20/no-predict/
(2) https://www.rio2.com/post/rio2-executing-on-fenix-gold-optimization-plans-with-the-purchase-of-strategic-
infrastructure
(3) https://cumtn.com/investors/press-releases/2022/copper-mountain-mining-announces-fourth-quarter-an-3899/
(4) https://cumtn.com/investors/press-releases/2022/copper-mountain-mining-initiates-copper-price-prot-3905/
(5) https://cumtn.com/investors/press-releases/2020/copper-mountain-mining-announces-2019-production-a-1284/
(6) https://cumtn.com/site/assets/files/4554/cmmc_investor_presentation_january_2022.pdf
(7) https://iknnews.com/suggested-new-marketing-campaign-for-mcewen-mining-mux/
(8) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-20/copper-majors-are-taking-another-look-at-argentina-mcewen-
says
(9) https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/no-new-year-resolution-out-of-favour-copper-market-2022-01-17/
(10) https://www.orocoresourcecorp.com/news/santo-tomas-drilling-success-continues
(11) https://www.barrick.com/English/news/news-details/2022/barrick-delivers-on-production-targets-for-the-third-
consecutive-year/default.aspx
(12) https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/how-a-mega-gold-mining-merger-tightened-a-companys-hold-on-
northern-nevada
(13) https://sisanjuan.gob.ar/gobernador/2022-01-18/38176-el-presidente-alberto-fernandez-arribo-a-san-juan-para-el-
lanzamiento-del-cluster-de-energia-renovable-nacional
(14) https://www.argentina.gob.ar/noticias/discurso-del-ministro-kulfas-lanzamiento-del-cluster-renovable-nacional
(15) https://www.eqsnotas.com/actualidad/kulfas-hablo-de-mineria-y-dijo-que-en-chubut--hay-un-activismo-sin-base-
cientifica-_a61ebf80c6d3f142535d7b769
(16) https://www.nostalgica.cl/las-reacciones-ante-la-llegada-de-marcela-hernando-al-ministerio-de-mineria/
(17) https://www.latercera.com/pulso-pm/noticia/los-cambios-al-pago-de-impuestos-que-se-proponen-para-las-patentes-
mineras/QGF3WPPBGZCPVMENDEVO5D2WCM/
(18) https://www.elsoldepuebla.com.mx/local/scjn-aplaza-discusion-sobre-amparo-interpuesto-por-indigenas-de-
ixtacamaxtitlan-7752886.html
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Set-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Abr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
30

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Ago-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Set-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Ene-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Set-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Ene-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Set-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Ago-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Abr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Set-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Abr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Set-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
31

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-ago-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-ene-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-abr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-abr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-ene-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-ene-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-abr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-abr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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