IKN #660Premium

The IKN Weekly
Week 660, January 16th 2022
Contents
This Week: Trade heads-up, In Today’s edition, MLK Day, Gold rises as a reaction, TD asks the
question.
Fundamental Analysis: Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) 4q21 production and 2022 guidance,
Discovery Silver (DSV.v) files its PEA.
Stocks to Follow: Great Bear Resources (GBR.v), McEwen Mining (MUX), Palamina Corp
(PA.v), Aldebaran (ALDE.v), Mene Inc (MENE.v), Altiplano Metals (APN.v), Strategic Metals
(SMD.V), QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v), Copper Mountain (CMMC.to), Trilogy Metals (TMQ).
Copper Basket: Overview, Hot Chili (HCH.v) (HCH.ax), Regulus Resources (REG.v), Coast
Copper (COCO.v).
Producer Basket: Overview, B2Gold (BTG), Sandstorm Gold (SAND).
TinyCaps Basket: Overview, Kingfisher Metals (KFR.v), Aurelius Minerals (AUL.v), Winshear
Gold Corp (WINS).
Regional Politics: Chile and mining during the Presidential changeover period, Inflation in
LatAm, Argentina: La Rioja protests against Josemaria in San Juan, Panama and First Quantum,
Mexico’s Supreme Court and Almaden Minerals (AMM.to), Nicaragua’s gold mining industry
under closer scrutiny, Ecuador’s Chamber of Mining whistles past the graveyard.
Market Watching: Deferred.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
Trade heads-up
It’s no biggie and only gets a few lines in the ‘Stocks to Follow’ notes, but as tradition demands
here’s a top-of-the-shop notice that I’ve decided to sell my remaining shares of Great Bear
Resources (GBR.v) this week and cash in on the winner. The end of a trade, we move on.
In Today’s Edition
 Today’s main Fundies section covers recent events in two of our recent trades, with
Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) 4q21 production and 2022 guidance up first, then a low-
down on the detailed and impressive PEA filed by Discovery Silver (DSV.v) at its
Cordero project in Mexico second. Both are good news, should be pleasant reading.
 Last week I was asked a good question by reader TD, who rightly wondered why I have
two under-performing gold developer stocks as Top Picks here at The IKN Weekly,
while at the same time banging on the table every weekend to get you to own copper
exposure. Today’s intro attempts an answer.
 Regional Politics notes how the mining sector is getting its fair share of scrutiny in Chile
during the changeover in government from right to left. We also note how Ecuador’s
Chamber of Mining prefers to live in its own fantasy world rather than admit that its
sector in trouble. Other things, too. There are always other things.
1

MLK Day
A reminder that US markets are closed tomorrow Monday to commemorate the civil rights and
Christian leader, Martin Luther King Jr. According to the King family, in the days before his
murder MLK prepared a sermon entitled, “Why America May Go To Hell”, but his life was cut
short four days before he could deliver it. Also according to his family, he had phoned his
mother on the day he was assassinated to brief her on the sermon, saying, “America is going to
hell if we don’t use her vast resources to end poverty and make it possible for all of God’s
children to have the basic necessities of life.” In other words, tomorrow Monday Wall St. shuts
down to pay homage to a radical Socialist. Enjoy your day off work, ladies and gents.
Gold rises as a reaction
In last week’s intro “Inflation on deck and gold in The Doldrums” we had a kvetch and moan
about the lacklustre display from gold bullion recently, pointing the finger toward the market’s
apathy for gold, rather than any particular
antipathy toward the monetary metal of choice.
Since then and as it happens, gold put in a
good week and rose 1.1% (GLD proxy),
allowing the PM miners to rally. With GDX up
3.2% week-over-week, plus GDXJ up 3.1%
week-over-week, the complex clawed back
most of the 2022 Week One losses (but not all,
see Producer Basket below). However, be clear
that the move had little to do with gold (right):
Bullion these days doesn’t act much, instead it
reacts. It takes just one look at that
comparative chart of gold (here GLD) vs. the
US Dollar (here DXY) to get the picture and, to
make sure, here’s a reminder of the lack of favour and popularity of gold bullion among those
who move markets:
GLD gold holdings, turn of 2021/2022 (metric tonnes)
1000
998
996
994
992
990
988
986
984
982
980
978
976
974
972
970
2
12/11/32 12/11/52 12/11/72 12/11/92 12/21/1 12/21/3 12/21/5 12/21/7 12/21/9 12/21/11 12/21/31 12/21/51 12/21/71 12/21/91 12/21/12 12/21/32 12/21/52 12/21/72 12/21/92 12/21/13 22/1/2 22/1/4 22/1/6 22/1/8 22/1/01 22/1/21 22/1/41
mt
source: SPDR GLD data
The drop in DXY was the major event of the week, the sagging US Dollar index coinciding with
the high US inflation reading but, as that was fully expected (7.0% was bang on), perhaps we
need to look again for the reasons behind the weakness. Instead, good ol’ Covid-19 seems to
be back in play but this time Omicron is threatening stagflation, a fate worse than plain vanilla
death for our economic overlords.

And with the guessing game on when the Fed starts its tightening cycle reignited (and how
many times in 2022), the USD lost favour against the basket of world currencies. So whatever
the next move is, even if it includes Putin and the Russia/Ukraine border, don’t expect gold to
be the protagonist. There is no “gold market action” going on, all we get these days is “gold
market reaction.”
TD asks the question
Thank you for the mailbag received this week, though it must be said nothing beat the mail
from long-term reader “TD” that arrived early Monday morning. You now get his entire mail,
aside the sign-off name:
“Sir:
Why not make copper stocks top picks?”
A very good seven-worder. With recent exhortations to “buy copper” coming with each issue of
The IKN Weekly, as well as the new personal trades in Copper Mountain (CMMC.to), Amerigo
Resources (ARG.to), Altiplano Metals (APN.v) and McEwen Mining (MUX) being either wholly or
partly copper related, plus other open trades in copper stocks Aldebaran (ALDE.v), QC Copper
(QCCU.v) and Trilogy (TMQ), there’s a lot of copper exposure on show at The IKN Weekly as
we move into 2022. On the other hand, we also have this:
That chart above shows 12 months of Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v) and Minera Alamos (MAI.v) set against
the GDXJ benchmark. They are the two Top Pick stocks here at The IKN Weekly, they’re both
gold juniors, both in development stage and both of them have underperformed over the last
12 months. Now for sure I could massage the chart, take in the “Covid Era” and claim out-
performance compared to the GDXJ…
…but that’s way off point, there’s no wool being pulled over any eyes today. The plain fact is
that the two Top Pick stocks here at The IKN Weekly have done precious little recently, if you’ll
excuse a weak pun. What’s more, the under-performance is coming under extra scrutiny as the
lacklustre top picks are compared with some of our current and more fashionable copper
trades, as seen in this ten-day chart:
3

With all that, reader TD’s question isn’t just pertinent, it’s overdue. Your author got some
‘splainin to do and it’s high time this publication made its position clear as regard the Top Picks,
with or without copper in the background. Therefore…
A repeated subject (and one that must bore you readers solid) is when I point out The IKN
Weekly’s way of presenting stocks picks is what I consider “the least worst”, rather than the
best. For sure it sounds good, better or best when a writer eats their own cooking, when he
puts his money where his mouth is, doesn’t accept payments from companies, doesn’t run a
“model portfolio” with no personal skin the game and makes certain to cover stocks in which he
personally is long, etc. All good and yes, it’s better this way than any of that because it keeps
me on the straight and narrow. However, my needs and desires in life are not yours and never
will be and when it comes to investments, our portfolios will also reflect personal character and
circumstances. At this point, I could list a whole bunch of real world influence in my life that
mould the way I approach the market, factors that include my financial and social obligations,
the absolute size of my back pocket and/or net worth, how much of that total I consider
disposable (or risk) income, my own level of risk tolerance when considering or making any
trade or investment. All those and a hundred other items but obviously, those are not going to
be the same financial circumstances as yours and ipso facto, my portfolio will reflect that.
Hopefully, the point is made without banging on the old drum any further because we’ve been
down this road before. So today, instead of parroting other occasions I’m going to get personal
and talk about a couple of underlying motivations I have in my investor’s mix, which will
hopefully shed light on why I am still good about with my trades in both Rio2 Ltd and Minera
Alamos and why they remain Top Picks.
First up, a corollary of choosing a Top Pick is that I invest more money into it than in other
trades. That may go without saying, but it also means making a commitment that doesn’t
simply fade away if the timeline starts to drag or if the underlying metal on which the project is
based doesn’t do what you want it to do. It’s exactly that case for the two current Top Picks,
I’ve sunk more into Minera Alamos (MAI.v) and Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v) than any other on the list,
therefore I feel obliged to have them at the top of my Stocks to Follow list in order that the
reader understand the sizing. For what it’s worth, my trade in Copper Mountain (CMMC.to) is
now worth more in dollar terms than that of Rio2, but that’s performance-related rather than
the original commitment. Also, as some may remember, I stopped myself from making a large
addition to CMMC (and chose other Cu trades instead) mostly because I didn’t want to offer
three Top Picks. For my taste, any more cash into CMMC and I’d have to promote it up a level.
Therefore, the first point today is that The IKN Weekly Top Picks are an extension of the same
“least worst” system, one that gives a reasonable idea of my personal position but will never
suit the reader in the same way. As a result, you get you first reason to not to copy my own
sizing parrot-fashion, instead you are better considering your circumstances first.
4

Today’s second reason is more personal as after coming on two decades of covering this sector
I now consider wealth creation as more important than making a simple profit. That simple
phrase opens up a big subject and I have neither time space nor inclination to delve into every
nook and cranny of the subject, so today we touch on just a couple of scenarios. For example,
this mindset is why I will sometimes baulk at an obvious trade opportunity (e.g. the “sizzle”
being created around Coast Copper at the moment) and prefer to put my money in long-term
projects. Now don’t get me wrong, I’m not anti-trading or morally opposed to a flip win or two,
I have no issues about trading to a profit and that won’t change. Instead, these days I have
subjective limits to the amount of capital market zero-sum games I can stomach, particularly in
our sector that seems to attract bad actors like iron filings to magnets. When it’s a simple trade,
rather than long-term wealth creation that uses markets to access capital, there’s no getting
round the fact that for every winning dollar there’s a losing dollar. That’s okay by me as long as
the playing field is reasonably level and you’re pitting you wits against other market
participants, but these days and particularly in the junior mining world, one encounters playing
fields so skewed and tipped in the favour of one side over another that it becomes nothing
short of morally reprehensible (and frankly it’s getting worse as the years roll on). For example,
no matter whether the newly-minted exploreco drills winning holes (e.g. New Found Gold) or
losers (e.g. Pucara Gold) when insiders play “Heads I Win Tails Tails You Lose” from the get-go
and stuff their pockets to the gills with pre-IPO shares priced at 0.0001c apiece, these people re
faking entrepreneurship and simply cannot lose. There’s no risk to “the players” and to make
matters worse, those in such these deals will not only enjoy a zero risk position, but they
misrepresent the counterparty risk to retail buyers in order to swap paper for dollars as quickly
and profitably as possible. This is just one scenario of dozens we could consider and while there
have always been sharks at every corner, the trend to offload all risk onto the retail investor is
one of the principle reason why the investment community is turning its back on the sector.
Meanwhile the scams and schemes multiply and rake on new facets, the inventiveness of the
people behind the schemes never ceases to amaze. It’s a pity these twisted people never put
their creative brains to use for the common good instead of being so sickeningly self-interested,
with unadulterated greed not just the prime driving force, but their only one.
However, the mining sector is not all thieves and shysters and that’s the reason why I cannot
turn my back on the sector as a whole (and believe me, I’ve tried). Crucially, there are baseline
facts about mining that never go away, with a big one summed up by the old adage, “If it aint
farmed, it’s mined.” Aside from agriculture, there’s no other sector of industry that has created
more true wealth for human society than the mining industry and the simple act of taking some
of the earth’s crust, processing and selling the product for a profit is the very essence of
capitalism. His is the deep appeal, it’s why this sector has held my attention for closing in on 20
years as a financial analyst and, though often frustrating and infuriating, the junior mining
sector never stops being fascinating and keeps me coming back for more. With the
juxtaposition outlined, it’s this combination that has molded the way I now analyse and invest
in companies. After years watching and suffering the ins and outs of the sector and its players,
these days what I want from my real investments, the ones I commit to loyally and with a long-
term outlook, is the opportunity to put my money and experience to work and create true
wealth. Now before you start accusing me of closest Communism fear not, this hasn’t turned
into some sort of Socialist rant. W’re still on the same subject of making cash profit from
incursions into capital market and that means myself as much as anyone else. This is
Capitalism, I’m a capitalist, I want to make money from this sector, feed my loved ones and
have extra cash left over for nice things. Period.
However, the difference in mindset between the smaller trades or speculative opportunities and
those I consider “serious investments” is, these days, both wide and stark. Small trades can be
fun, they can be intellectually stimulating, they often lean into the “cut and thrust of the
market” but, they aren’t the ones into which I invest (what I consider to be) large amounts of
time and money. As examples allow me to beat myself up a little and highlight two recent
losers, starting with my “side bet” in Harte Gold (HRT.to). That was a small spec trade that
didn’t work out but didn’t hurt me much, either in the back pocket or morally. Sometimes you
see an opportunity in this high-risk sector and go for it, then sometimes they work and
5

sometimes they don’t. On the other hand, while the monetary loss in the recently closed
Argonaut Gold trade wasn’t pleasant, the feeling of being blind-sided by a company that had set
itself up in a certain light, only to reveal the cruel reality later was much worse than the money
lost. For me, AR was a commitment to wealth creation and it hurt to see that trade flushed
down the toilet, a real investment with which I hoped to see AR in Magino create real wealth
for me, for the company, for the region around the project and yes, even for Canada as a
nation. That’s what I consider a real failure of a trade and yes, it still hurtstoday as I write up
this intro today, even though the cash rescued from that loser has done better since being
deployed (mostly) in Amerigo Resources.
With the “real investments” of time, money and personal commitment, there’s trust involved as
well as the primary objective of capitalist gain. That doesn’t imply developing personal
friendships with the actors involved, (you either learn the hard way about “making friends” in
the mining sector or you don’t learn at all), instead what is required from your counterparty
company is the correct level of human integrity. With that in place, and as long as the company
and its project are made of the right stuff, I’m the investor who remains loyal to a trade as long
as the other side does what they say they’ll do. It’s not about batting 1000 either, errare
humanum est, but unless I discover my loyalty has been misplaced or the project is going sour,
I firmly believe that the right way to create real wealth in this weird and wonderful sector is to
offer an abundance of patience to the right teams with the right projects.
Therefore and with all that said, I’m going to wrap up this extended intro with a few real world
examples of your author’s mindset, as applied to some, but not all, of the current open
positions here at The IKN Weekly. You get six examples:
 Aldebaran Resources ALDE.v) is a simple trade, buy low and sell high: At some point I’ll
take my profit without a second thought.
 Ditto McEwen Mining (MUX): When someone uses capital markets strictly for their own
ends, they are welcome to their own consequences and I have no issue about mirroring
the corporate attitude on display. I see a trade here, because today MUX offers a good
risk/reward set-up, but it’s not Top Pick material and never will be.
 Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) is an interesting special situation, the trade set-up comes
from being able to recognize when corporate moves are as important as anything going
on at its production facility. Depending on how the actors play their cards it may turn
into a near-term or long-term trade, but the intellectual challenge is almost as
important for me.
 Strategic Metals (SMD.v) commands my loyalty, but the company is too small to go
deep. Happy to hold for the long-term.
 Minera Alamos (MAI.v) is a Top Pick. Period.
 Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v) is a Top Pick. Period.
To wrap up and for what it’s worth, even though TD’s question was bouncing round my head all
week, this intro is the last section written in this weekend’s edition. I knew it needed more than
a few lines to answer correctly, but until today I had a different note planned in draft. After
procrastinating for days, it took a looming deadline to get me to sit down and write a note that
somehow took on a life of its own, starting 8pm on a Sunday evening. It’s also a little self-
indulgent, so whether you find any value in this long intro is also debatable, therefore I urge
anyone who managed to get this far to focus on the practical parts (there’s no need to get into
the weeds of my warped psyche) as the practical is also the most straightforward. When
reading about stocks covered in The IKN Weekly please understand that Top Picks are one
thing, while “Hot Picks” (to coin a phrase) that get more frequent and topical coverage on these
pages, or even the flip trades that come along from time to time and offer high risk/high
reward opportunities, may suit your investment needs more closely than my idea of a long-term
bet. However, and to defend the house position a final time, I firmly believe that associating
yourself with real people with battle-proven integrity is the best and safest course of action over
the long-term, as well as the strategy that offers the biggest and most rewarding successes.
Not just in the mining sector, either. Any further questions, TD?
6

Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) 4q21 production and 2022 guidance
With that, we move from “Top Picks” to a “Hot Pick” and an update on the copper trade that
started just over a month ago in IKN655, dated December 12th. The main fundies note that day
was entitled “The time to own Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) has arrived” and was a long one,
covering the operations at ARG.to as well as all the recent corporate and boardroom-level
machinations. Our argument at the time was how the combination of both has brought this
stock into play and, so far at least…
…the trade is working well, as even though the whole copper complex has traded positively
recently, as seen above ARG has outstripped the benchmark copper producer’s ETF (COPX)
readily. Also and before moving to the main part of today’s update, it’s right to point out just
how well ARG traded after the news release dropped last week
The weakness in trading Thursday morning on receipt of the NR (1) came as no surprise to this
desk, it’s the type of liquidity moment that allows for profit taking. The NR also came with the
fall in copper prices from the Wednesday peak (see Copper Basket, below) which would have
pushed a few more traders into taking deserved profits. The surprise came Friday, when
accumulators left no time for further weakness, waded straight back into the stock and while
the metal sell-off pushed COPX down 1%, ARG ignored the others and rose 3.1% on strong
traded volume. That’s exactly the type of trading we’d want to see from a stock that has “other
reasons” to go up than its straight operations, which we’ll consider below.
4q21 production: But first things first and we consider the contents of last week’s NR,
starting with the look back to 4q21. Here’s a chart:
7

ARG: Production breakdown by source, per qtr
8
92.01
404.5
687.9
7.5
695.9
30.6
109.8
903.5
231.9
625.5
309.11
256.5
747.31
587.4
114.8
395.4
322.8
121.5
301.11
589.4
61.11
75.4
717.5
131.5
13.6
66.6
8
86.6
82.9
71.7
74.8
30.7
16.7
73.7
73.7
26.8
46.7
62.9
26
24
22
20
18
16
14 12 10
8
6 4
2
0
71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4
Mlb Cu
Slag processing
Cauquenes tailings
Fresh tailings
source: company filings
Production came in at a decent 16.9m lbs Cu and was driven by increased throughput of fresh
tailings directly from El Teniente, the 13.38m tonne number some 1.5mt higher than the typical
levels seen in previous quarters. According to ARG (via its wholly-owned MVC subsidiary, the
company, “…successfully completed a series of plant modifications to take advantage of the
higher throughput of fresh tailings coming from El Teniente” . ARG also claimed that improved
numbers from the fresh tailings means its historic Cauquenes tailings resource depletes at a
lower rate, but the chart above shows the difference isn’t great (and the old tailings are as
close to a limitless resource as they come in mining, so it’s a moot point). The only small
downside is how fresh tailings carry lower levels of molybdenum, which means the Mo by-
product credit was slightly low at 0.3m lbs. The next chart below shows copper deliveries (i.e.
sales), marked 16.72m lbs for 4q21:
ARG.to: Copper sales
905.41 995.51 714.31 571.51 791.61 152.51 482.61 25.41 912.41 595.71 395.71 29.21 568.31
945.91
70.42
28.11 7.31 29.41 9.51 11.51 31.51 9.61
27.61
1.61 61
25
22.5
20
17.5
15
12.5
10 7.5
5
2.5
0
61q2 61q3 61q4 71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 1rtQ.ge 2rtQ.ge
source: company filings
rtq/uC
sblM
That’s slightly lower than 3q21 but no biggie. As ARG also gave us an annual average received
price for copper in 2021, a bit of reverse engineering and gives an expected average of
U$4.13/lb for 4q21, and from that, we can make an estimate for 4q21 gross copper values and
once that’s in, an estimate for total revenues (i.e. what we see on the top line of the P+L):
ARG: Gross Cu value vs Total revs, per qtr
637.72
296.22
9.33
474.53
836.51
640.62
555.73
881.74 709.84
305.05
231.84 75.84 89.84 89.84
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 tse22q1 tse22q2
U$m
source: company filings, IKN ests

The big deduction is the royalty due to El Teniente (DET), which comes in at just under 30% of
gross now copper prices have moved above
U$4.00/lb. After that, deductions happen for
smelting/refining and transport, then comes the
relief as the moly by-product is added back in
(which we expect at U$17/lb X 0.3mbs =
U$5.1m).
Adding 2022 guidance: But before we go any
further, as seen above we can also plug in
estimates for the first quarter or quarters of 2022,
as ARG gave us guidance that amounts to just
under 16m lbs copper and 0.3m lbs moly per
quarter, along with slightly higher costs due to
standard industry-wide cost creep. Considering the
recent quarters from ARG, plus the way that moly is set to stay at the current low-end of
production and that water supply will not be an issue for 2022, it’s fair to say ARG is setting up
for regularity in the quarters to come and any difference in revenues will be about the copper
price (plus costs), more than vast differences in production. In fact, the guidance for 2022
suggests a modest amount of “UPOD” (under-promise, over-deliver) and as such, the best
model for the year ahead is to assume ARG produces and sells 16m lbs copper per quarter, with
the opportunity to deliver an extra million or so pounds as gravy.
That’s a long and wordy way of saying “ARG is now in cash cow mode” and even with a slight
increase in expected costs, will deliver around U$12m in gross profits:
ARG.to: Quarterly Earnings overview
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
9
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 tse12q4 tse22q1
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
revenues
COGS
Gross profit
That’s enough to deliver a U$9m/qtr operating profit, as seen in this chart below:
ARG.to: Gross, operating and net profits, per qtr
20
17.5
15
12.5
10
7.5
5
2.5
0
-2.5
-5
-7.5
-10
02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 tse12q4 tse22q1
ARG: % DET royalty from gross
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
U$m
Gross profit
op profit
Net Income
source: ARG data
Or as ARG put it in the NR last week:
Projected 2022 EBITDA considering these combined variables is expected to be $50
million (including 2021 settlement adjustments). A 10% increase in copper price could
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 12q4 tse22q1 tse22q2
source: company filings, IKN ests
eulav
uC
ssorg
fo
%

have an impact on EBITDA of $17 million
With the company expecting to average around $8m EBITDA at the higher royalty rate and our
model indicating $9m, that’s as aligned as this desk could wish for at this stage and what’s left
is delivery and execution (smooth running of the plant), then the input and received prices.
We move swiftly on to balance sheet items and today, the current assets are our main focus. In
the NR ARG reported a cash/ST position of U$63.8m. That’s $3.8m healthier than our house
estimate and interesting, because it makes the cash and working cap charts look like this:
ARG.to: Working capital
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
As CEO Davidson previously stated during the 3q21 ConfCall that U$20m or so (perhaps slightly
higher) is her ideal amount of liquidity for ARG going forward, that fits with what she now has
and means excess cash can go to other places. Usefully, last week’s NR also provided a
comprehensive ARG shopping list for 2022:
 U$7m in debt repayments
 U$1.3m for moly plant lease
 U$6.0m for a range of 29 capex projects.
 U$4.7m for slurry and water lines improvements
 U$2.8m for sustaining capital work
That little lot totals U$21.8m, leaving around U$11m over for shareholder benefits. As the
inaugural quarterly dividend payment took CAD$2.8m from the company, let’s slate that as a
repeat and therefore, ARG shareholders can expect CAD$0.02 per quarter going forward
(U$10m approx). That leaves the last prong and the ARG promise to buy back shares and our
model currently assumes another 5m shares are bought back by the end of 2022. Considering
the low-end EBITDA guidance from ARG of U$33m for the year, that would only leave U$1.8m
for buybacks as long as working capital remains steady and that may be tight. However, our
house model would allow around CAD$6m for buybacks without crimping liquidity and at least
3m shares bought back would be reasonable. Higher copper prices would mean bigger
buybacks too, so for the moment I’m going to stick with my 5m share estimate.
The bottom line to ARG 4q21 production and its 2022 guidance can be summed up in two
words, “In Line”. That given normal leeway, as guidance for 2022 costs is slightly higher than
expected but will not stop the company from delivering on its “cash cow promises” to
shareholders of a regular dividend and the share buyback policy.
However, to wrap up we’ll switch subjects slightly and consider the potential for the boardroom
battle we envisaged last year while opening this trade. There’s reason to believe the current
management team is still under pressure, here are some reasons:
1) The guidance for 2022 makes efficient use of capital and gives shareholders the benefit
they’ve been looking for, but leaves precious little capital to allow ARG (or more
precisely MVC) to make good on ambitions and repeat its winning formula at other
10
91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 tse12q4 tse22q1
U$m ARG.to: Cash and ST
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
source company filings
71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 tse12q4
$m
source: company filings

historic tailings facilities in Chile. This is where the financial and deal-making heft of a
Ross Beaty would come to the fore.
2) The way in which ARG sold off on its results news Thursday didn’t surprise this desk,
but its rally on strong volume did and was another signal of large insto accumulation.
That’s what you’d want to see if there were a boardroom battle in the offing.
3) At CAD$1.64 and a CAD$0.02/quarter dividend, the yield has already dropped to 5%
and while that would be a very attractive level for an S&P500 bluechip, we’re now at
the limit for a risk-laden junior stock to be bought up by instos strictly for its divi. The
Friday rally looked to this desk like something else.
4) Finally, perhaps a minor point but the ARG 1q21 financials are scheduled for Thursday
February 24th, but we don’t get the Conference Call until Monday February 28th (at
11am Pacific). That’s a long gap between numbers and words, plenty of time for any
off-record talks to happen between interested parties and current management.
The bottom line: ARG delivered what was expected of it in 4q21 and while its guidance may
under-promise in order to over-deliver on the year, it’s now clearly in cash cow mode and keen
to return benefits to shareholders. On 2022 guidance alone, we can fully justify today’s higher
share price with risks now confined to execution and the vagaries of the price of copper. That
latter will never go away fully, but as this desk expects copper prices to move higher this year,
we’re definitely on the right side of this trade. As for the corporate angle, there’s still reason to
expect changes at the top (e.g. the exit of Chair Zeitler, perhaps with Davidson) and if that
happens, ARG would then be in a position to take advantage of a new and more dynamic
board, capitalize and then repeat its MVC success story in other parts of Chile. The next key
date will be the 1q21 financials and Conference Call, then the AGM which gets its agenda in
March and meeting in April. The next three months should decide just how high this stock can
go and as such, this desk will remain a holder until further notice. In the meantime, let’s see
how high the equity can run .
Discovery Silver (DSV.v) files its PEA
On the afternoon of Thursday January 13th our preferred silver play, in fact our only one,
Discovery Silver (DSV.v) filed its 43-101 compliant Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) to
SEDAR. The main contents of the PEA were first announced on November 30th and back then
we liked what we saw, even though the stock then went through a gut-wrenching sell-off
before rebounding:
I keenly remember the first two weeks of December trading in DSV, scratching my head and
wondering if I’d made a mistake. However, once the liquidity event selling was done DSV
bounced back and out-performed the market into the New Year. We now cut to last week,
consider the PEA’s official arrival on SEDAR Thursday and…
11

…yup, DSV got hit more than most once again on Friday. But this time it bothers less, because
the company has delivered a strong and “serious PEA” which sets up nicely for 2022 and the
next big milestone, the PFS due mid-year (or now more probably, some time in 3q22). First
comment is the simple size of this PEA as, at a cool 354 pages, it kept this desk occupied for
plenty of Thursday and Friday daytime. More important, however, is the data and this PEA isn’t
just good, it’s about the best I’ve seen from a junior mining company and covers items in the
type of detail you don’t always find in PFS studies. I also had the opportunity to quiz DSV’s
Forbes Gemmell on the contents and while all of my queries were minor, his answers set any
small doubts I had to rest.
There’s no need to go over the details as seen in IKN654 dated December 5th when crunching
the PEA numbers that day, as the main job last week was to check input data and see whether
DSV was cutting corners on costs or time, or perhaps inflating revenues. Nothing was found,
however, this “serious PEA lives up to expectations and in some corners such as metallurgy,
went way above and beyond the call of duty regarding details and test results. Therefore, today
we are going to cut to the chase and provide more on the upside potential of the share price,
now that this milestone is behind the company. First a re-cap of the resource data, where no
news was good news and the resource remains as stands. Here’s the table for lesser oxides…
…with most of them due extracted in the first years before the sweetest spots of the main
sulphide resource as exposed (see IKN654). On that subject, the table below has the main
event and we include the table notes for context:
The M+I resource contains 344m oz silver and relies heavily on zinc and lead to get to the
overall 837m oz AgEq. The relatively low grade of Cordero may concern those new to the
12

project, but we’ve run the numbers on the economics of
the mine plan and they hold up very well. Also, the
quality of the resource is underscored by this handy
chart from the same page (right) as the sulphide
resource table, showing how it holds up well as the cut-
off rises. This underscores the point we made when
opening this trade last year, Cordero’s large zones of
higher-grading mineralization makes for a quick
payback starter pit and robust economics.
The other factor is the reduced level of inferred resource, important for the upcoming PFS that
won’t allow inferred as part of the economic analysis. Thanks to its years of exploration, first
under Levon and recently thanks to DSV and its aggressive drilling campaign (your reminder in
this chart)…
DSV: Exploration costs breakdown
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
13
81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3
all other exploration
Cordero Driling
source: company filings
…the 2022 campaign won’t have to spend a mountain on infill drilling to bring the resource up
to PFS standard. It’s already there, in fact last week’s PEA recommends no more than $12m on
drilling in 2022 before the PFS arrives. As that’s below the rhythm we saw last year, we’ll
probably see DSV expand on that minimum drill program when its exploration budget is
announced in the next few weeks. As for the economics analysis section, DSV doesn’t spare the
horses and we again get the level of information normally reserved for PFS-level work. This
makes sense, with only two quarters (perhaps three) before DSV delivers a full PFS and with
little inferred resource left, you’d expect them to have more this level of information on-hand.
We now check on project economics, first using the PEA published IRR information, here below
in the table showing the post-tax version (the report assumes standard Mexico’s standard 30%
corporate tax rate and 7.5% State burden on PM operations). Using U$22/oz base case silver,
the 38.2% IRR is as advertised in November 2021. However, the sensitivities we see in this
table give a good framework how Cordero stands up to cost rises, for example a Capex increase
of 10% at the base case only drops IRR by 3.2% to 35.0%, meanwhile better silver prices
would more than make up for that modest shortfall:
So much for IRR, which looks robust from all angles and provides a capital payback at the base
case of just 1.6 years. That’s 3.6 years if you’re like me and consider years “neg 2” and neg 1”
as real operating years (see IKN654), we’re still easily under four years for a project using that
conservatively pitched U$22/oz silver price assumption.
However and for me at least, a better way of considering Cordero at this stage is via NPV, as
that provides an method to price shares and provide a reasonable target price for 2022. We

begin with this sensitivity table, one of several from the PEA report that cover different
sensitivities to the base case (DSV provides a lot of information, no joke). This one is the most
important for us on the outside to work out a share price target for this year, showing the
influence of metals prices on NPV at different discount rates:
In its base case, DSV uses a 5% discount rate and while I’m no fan of pitching that low
normally, for once its makes sense because it’s closer to the rate that any eventual buyer of
Cordero and operator of this mine would likely obtain, thanks to easier access to capital (e.g.,
First Majestic, Pan American, Fresnillo).
However, for pricing and target purposes
DSV.v: Shares Out
on our current trade, we may want to
consider an 8% discount rate and DSV
doesn’t duck the issue, providing a range of
discounts to NPV of up to 10%. The result,
as seen above, is still a strongly robust
project at U$22/oz silver and if the metals
price deck rises (as we expect, that gets
better quickly). We can therefore crunch
those numbers by doing a USD to CAD
conversion at our standard 1.2/1 house
forex, assuming a fully diluted share count
of 384m shares (above right) and adding in 20c/share for the cash we’d assume DSV held at
the end of 2022 with all warrants and options made whole.
This table below is the result of that numbercrunch: For this table, we use a 0.5X NPV to
simulate how your author believes that nice Mr. Market is currently willing to value DSV shares:
DSV: Share price at 0.5X NPV (CAD$)
Disc rate Ag -20% Ag -10% Ag U$22/oz Ag +10% Ag +20%
1.0% 1.29 2.07 2.84 3.61 4.37
3.0% 1.07 1.73 2.39 3.03 3.68
5.0% 0.89 1.45 $2.01 2.57 3.12
8.0% 0.67 1.13 1.58 2.02 2.47
10.0% 0.56 0.95 1.35 1.74 2.13
source: DSV data, IKN calcs & ests
While it’s never going to be an exact fit, the CAD$2.01 box highlighted is a relatively close fit to
the current state of play at DSV. We could argue that the market would pay 0.4X NPV or 0.6X
NPV at this point, we could also argue about the base case metals prices but the ballpark is the
thing, rather than an exact number but overall and within margins of error, this desk submits to
its esteemed readership that we’re at-or-around 0.5X NPV of Cordero for DSV shares today,
using a U$22/oz silver price (along with DSV’s other reasonable assumptions for zinc, lead and
gold). That prices the stock at CAD$2.01 and fits with recent price action..
However, the PFS later this year should both re-rate the company and put it in-play as it de-
risks. With a PFS on–board should be ready for sale to the highest bidder and we are also
betting on higher silver prices this year (this is our only silver play and your author is willing to
speculate on this trade). While DSV isn’t going to sell for 1.0X NPV, we’d expect the ratio to
click higher so here’s a new simulation table for what the DSV share price might as interest and
momentum builds.
14
440.56 440.56 440.56
17.861
12.112 84.112 23.752
15.992 10.503 49.323 51.523 61.523 61.523 073 483 483
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 tse12q4 tse22q1 tse22q2 tse22q3
source: company filings
serahs
fo
snoillim

DSV: M&A target price at 0.7X NPV (CAD$)
Disc rate Ag -20% Ag -10% Ag U$22/oz Ag +10% Ag +20%
1.0% 1.72 2.82 3.90 4.97 6.03
3.0% 1.42 2.35 3.26 4.17 5.07
5.0% 1.16 1.95 2.74 $3.51 $4.29
8.0% 0.86 1.50 2.13 $2.75 $3.37
10.0% 0.70 1.25 1.81 2.35 2.90
source: DSV data, IKN calcs & ests
If an eventual buyer insists on framing DSV shares using an 8% discount and the price of silver
doesn’t move, we’re not going to get the type of big win we’ve been looking for and the C$2.13
target (though it’s still better than our entry point). However, a 5% discount and a modest 10%
rise in silver (e.g. around U$24/oz) puts the target price at CADS$3.51 and +90.8% from this
weekend’s share price. Or if you prefer, the 8% discounted target at CAD$2.75 (+49.5% and
still a reasonable return if it happens in 2022). However, if you’re like me you’re here for the
bigger win that includes success with silver price speculation and that’s where DSV displays
strong leverage. For example, at a +20% silver price to the base case (i.e. U$26.40/oz, or in
the real world a trading range of U$26/oz to U$27/oz) the CAD$4.29 target would provide a
very pretty 133% upside to this weekend. That will do nicely for a year’s work, thank you.
Therefore and with this PEA now in the books, those are the ranges we should have in mind,
factoring in either a flat or reasonably positive year for silver (and other metals) in 2022. The
bottom line to today’s update on Discovery Silver (DSV.v) is a positive one, as last week it made
good on its promise for a “serious PEA” and we can now look forward to the arrival of its next
economic report, the PFS. Rare indeed are
companies with this level of detail at PEA
level, another rarity is having to wait less
than a year between the first pass economic
study and a PFS (the one buyers and
bankers take seriously). This company has
the right project at the right time in the right
place and DSVF at Cordero is several cuts
above the norm when it comes to the junior
silver space. Happy holder and while DSV
could deliver bonus upside from its 2022 drill
campaign, a company set fair 2022 thanks to
this PEA and its development track.
Stocks to Follow
If it weren’t for the poor Friday suffered by Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v) it would have been a reasonable
week for the personal back pocket, instead I’m forced to settle for arithmetical victories and
scant reward in real cash terms. There were seven winners on the week (CMMC.to, ARG.to,
MUX, SMD.v, ALDE.v, APN.v, GBR.v), three stocks remained unchanged (MAI.v, TMQ, QCCU.v)
and five were losers (RIO.v, DSV.v, PA.v, MIRL.cse, MENE.v). We also saw big moves in both
directions, starting with the wins registered in Copper Mountain (CMMC.to up 13.9%),
Aldebaran Resources (ALDE.v up 13.8%) and Amerigo Resources (ARG.to up 8.6%) with the
latter trading particularly impressively. Meanwhile, big percentage losers were Minera IRL
(MIRL.cse down 16.7%), Palamina Corp (PA.v down 14.3%) and the depressing Rio2 Ltd
(RIO.v down 11.7%), which was the bucket of cold water of my trading week.
We currently have 15 open positions on or list, the self-imposed maximum. Ten of the stocks
are in the green (thanks to copper) and five are in the red.
15

company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.55 161.9% $1.14 tgt Aug'20, #1 idea
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v STR BUY C$0.83 22-Apr-18 C$0.53 -36.1% $1.30 1st tgt, building now
Recommended stocks (In order of preference)
Copper Mountain CMMC.to STR BUY C$3.40 18-Jun-21 C$3.85 13.2% Top value Cu play, overweight
Amerigo Res ARG.to STR BUY C$1.27 12-Dec-21 C$1.64 29.1% 2022 Cu bet, mgmt change
McEwen Mining MUX STR BUY U$0.90 2-Jan-22 U$0.91 1.1% 1q22 trade, turnaround story
Discovery Silver DSV.v BUY C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.84 4.0% Serious Ag play, big&cheap
Trilogy Metals TMQ BUY U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.59 -13.6% S32 suitor, stalled
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v STR BUY C$0.26 25-Apr-21 C$0.31 19.2% Now drilling. Easy hold
Palamina Corp PA.v SPEC BUY C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.24 -18.6% New, gold expl in S.Peru
Strategic Metals SMD.v BUY C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.38 -9.5% Canada land bet+Zn in FY22
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v SPEC BUY C$0.68 16-May-21 C$1.07 57.4% Waiting on drill assays
Altiplano Metals APN.v SPEC BUY C$0.31 17-Sep-21 C$0.315 1.6% Cheap entry, 1q22 re-rate
Great Bear Res GBR.v hold C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$28.45 79.7% Under offer, sold half
Minera IRL MIRL.cse hold C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.075 -61.5% CEO change will move stock
Long-term non-mining hold
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.67 6-Dec-20 C$0.69 3.0% LT bet, adding slowly
Closed in 2022 closed close price
n/a
2015 to 2021 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on a few of our covered stocks:
Great Bear Resources (GBR.v): SELLING. Another week of no news and the writing is now
on the wall, as such and considering the tendency toward risk for this junior portfolio, I’ve
decided no to hang around much longer, will cash in this winning trade in the days to come and
will let the arbitrageurs earn a small slice of cash from my shares. I won’t pick the first price
and may not even sell in the week ahead, but if a reasonable exit point shows I’ll take it. And
with that, this winning trade ends with a whimper rather than a bang, but with no counter-offer
from Barrick (or other), I’ve run out of reasons to hold and as the personal cash position is very
thin, it’s the right portfolio management move. Flexibility beats squeezing every last drop out of
this trade.
McEwen Mining (MUX): Overall MUX continues to trade in a subdued manner, we saw as
high as 94c during the week but without anyone hitting the marketing trail and no Q4
production numbers yet. We assume those happen in the week ahead and only news from MUX
so far concerns CFO Ladd-Kruger (2), who has taken temporary leave of absence due to illness
so above all we wish her a speedy recovery. As for our trade, the key word in the NR was
“temporary” and it will be a net professional positive to see her back at her desk soon, as well.
As noted in last week’s long write-up on MUX, I’m keen to see this new team stick together
under Rob McEwen so if there are departures, they’d better be for good reasons. Health is the
best reason of all, so while we hope Ladd-Kruger’s leave doesn’t last too long it’s not a deal-
breaker if it becomes permanent.
Palamina Corp (PA.v): It’s now a full month since PA reported (3) the completion of its first
four holes from Usicayos and in the NR on December 16th we were told “Assay results are
expected to be returned and compiled by year's end.” Therefore, as we assume “year’s end”
referred to 2021  the delay does not augur well for the assay results. This may explain the
latest in a line of poor market performances from PA.v. but be clear that even if the company
delivers pure dusters from this first round we’re not about to give up on the trade; the
attraction at PA is its large land package and access to projects and workings (thanks to its
16

good CSR work). So even if this first round misses, PA will get its chance to show in 2022 and
as things stand, the share price is already at bargain basement levels.
Aldebaran Resources (ALDE.v): It may be trading by appointment, with low volumes and
wide bid-ask spreads at most times, but ALDE is moving in the right direction in anticipation of
its first drill assay results of the year. So I’ll take it.
At this point, a reminder of what we expect of the ALDE 1q22 strategy, with four rigs turning
and now eleven weeks between us and the start of the current drill campaign. We should get
first results soon, perhaps one NR or perhaps two and, if ALDE trades in the way both it and its
sister REG normally do, we’d get windows of
traded volume around those releases. However,
be clear that the company also needs to raise
cash and management hasn’t made any secret of
their plans for an equity raise in Q1, so that
should follow on the heels of the NR or NRs.
Therefore and considering the recent run-up of
the stock, if the drill assays are good and the
market applauds, I’d be tempted to take profits
during the liquidity window and step aside while
any placement runs its course. Considering ALDE
has out-performed even Lundin Groups market
stars JOSE and FIL recently (with REG included
in this chart for reference), another sharp leg higher may be he last for a while. Nothing would
stop me from buying back in later.
Mene Inc (MENE.v): MENE is another stock currently trading by appointment as we await the
4q21 sales NR. The chart shows how Friday’s tape was painted, hardly the greatest market sin
these days.
Assuming we get the awaited 4q21 sales NR in the next five days, expect more on MENE than
just a nudge in the stocks notes next weekend. I’m eager to see the numbers for this one.
Altiplano Metals (APN.v): I’ve been neglecting this small trade on this tinycap recently,
which is beginning to look unfair as it has started to rack up a series of positive updates,
particularly concerning it Farallon project in Chile. Its recent share price action also suggests
that it’s waking up after a downer of a 4q21. Please forgive me for one more week, expect an
overdue update on this stock in IKN661, next weekend,
Strategic Metals (SMD.V): We’re also getting distinct signs of life from, with buyers picking
at these mid-30c prices. The trade in SMD has always been about owning large and prospective
land packages in safe jurisdictions, so far the formula hasn’t paid off but with the industry now
leaning toward Canada and The US as places to be, SMD has the opportunity to set up deals for
2022. It also has 40% in Ranj Pillai’s Broden Mining and its Vangorda Lands project that offers
big and high grade zinc.
17

QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v): The volatile trading continues and while most of the volatility
was to the upside, QCCU only managed to finish the week unchanged. Now drilling at Opemiska
and as many of the holes and targets are shallow, we should begin to get real newsflow soon.
Copper Mountain (CMMC.to): Two things of note, firstly that CMMC announced (4) it would
file its 4q21 and year-end financials on February 14th, so we hope to avoid a Valentine’s Day
massacre. We’ll also get 4q21 production numbers that day, so expect plenty CMMC in the
February 20th edition of The IKN Weekly. Secondly, this:
CMMC traded well all week and like a veritable champ on Friday once the above NR had
dropped, so maybe the market thinks that the promptness of it 4q21 financials is good news in
the pipeline. For my money, CMMC is worth a lot more than anything under C$4.00 with copper
trading where it is, so the move may have been a pleasant surprise, but it wasn’t out of turn.
Trilogy Metals (TMQ): Frustratingly, TMQ continues deeply in the Doldrums despite
delivering a largely positive first NR of 2022 on Tuesday (5). In it, the company announced a
$28.5m budget for the Ambler Metals that includes 10,000m of drilling, with half the metals
earmarked for its main Arctic Project (resource definition etc) and half at outlying exploration-
stage projects on the large JV land package. We remind readers that the JV is fully funded and
doesn’t cost TMQ the company a bean for its participation. Meanwhile and probably more
important the company also announced that its permitting package for Arctic is almost complete
and the JV will present its application to
the relevant authority, namely the United
States Army Corps. of Engineers (USACE)
“in early 2022.” The permitting track is
expected to take between 24 and 30
months to complete, which is as expected
on the original schedule. Perhaps the lack
of price movement is due to this, if so it’s
only newbies around the stock who will be
surprised. What matters more is that
South32 has always been aware of the
required timeline and they are happy with
the situation.
Finally, we note CEO Tony Giardini is
hitting the marketing trail as from this
week via the first set of marketing webinars this year. I’ll be watching the 6ix show Wednesday,
here’s the link if you want to join as well (6).
18

The Copper Basket
After two weeks of 2022, The Copper Basket shows a gain of 1.54% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/22 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Copper Mtn CMMC.to 3.42 210.166 809.14 3.85 12.6%
2 Oroco Res OCO.v 2.04 192.689 445.11 2.31 13.2%
3 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.77 88.028 329.22 3.74 -0.8%
4 Nevada Copper NCU.to 0.71 448.437 327.36 0.73 2.8%
5 Western Copper WRN.to 2.00 151.426 292.25 1.93 -3.5%
6 Meridian Min MNO.v 1.18 153.735 182.94 1.19 0.8%
7 Hot Chili HCH.v 1.53 109.223 174.76 1.60 4.6%
8 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.84 114.495 122.51 1.07 27.4%
9 Regulus Res. REG.v 1.06 101.845 104.90 1.03 -2.8%
10 C3 Metals CCCM.v 0.16 645.379 93.58 0.145 -9.4%
11 Kutcho Copper KC.v 0.88 103.94 85.23 0.82 -6.8%
12 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.58 79.24 48.34 0.61 5.2%
13 Doré Copper DCMC.v 0.79 66.123 46.29 0.70 -11.4%
14 QC Copper QCCU.v 0.34 129.06 40.01 0.31 -8.8%
15 Coast Copper COCO.v 0.13 41.335 5.37 0.13 0.0%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg 1.54%
A good week for copper, copper stocks and specifically our list, which reversed the week one loss
quickly and put the overall average into the green, thanks to eight week-over-week winners
(CMMC.to, OCO.v, MARI.to, NCU.to, MNO.v, HCH.v, ALDE.v, ECU.v), and three unchanged stocks
giving ballast (CCCM.v, DCMC.v, QCCU.v), wioth just four losers (WRN.to, REG.v, KC.v, COCO.v) from
the 15 names. Some strong percentage moves among those winners as well, led by Copper Mountain
(CMMC.to up 13.9%) and Aldebaran (ALDE up 13.8%) and closely followed by Oroco Resources
(OCO.v up 11.6%) and the Aussie listing of Hot Chili (HCH.ax up 9.6%), with that last one getting lost
slightly in our stats as we shift from the AX to the TSXV quote (see below). Biggest loser was Regulus
(REG.v down 7.2%) and there’s a note on the probable reason below, too. As for the basket tracker
chart, as usual we’ll waitr a few weeks before having enough of a sample to put together a reasonable
visual. Mid-February debut, perhaps.
On a week-over-week basis, copper-the-metal didn’t move much, up three cents or so from this time
last weekend but that’s not half the story, as this HGH22 (Comex near-dated futures) chart shows:
The metal started the week perkily, momentum build and then in US trading Wednesday busted
through the upper U$4.50/lb ceiling level and quickly ran a lot higher, briefly touching
U$4.60/lb before buyers stood down. Thursday saw consolidation trading in a healthy range for
bulls and stayed handily over the key U$4.50/lb level, enough for your author to publish bullish
19

thoughts on the metal on the open blog that day. Yup, I should have kept my mouth shut .
You can even blame me for jinxing the market if you want, but Asia trading pushed copper
lower and then Friday morning saw the first concerted attack on its price in 2022, a waterfall
drop at the Comex open, 4,000 contracts traded in the first minute of the market (and plenty
more just behind that hammering), so by the time the dust had settled we had the U$4.43/lb
(or so) close seen above. For my money, that’s jawbone plus some judiciously placed puts at a
sensitive time for the futures contract. We’re beginning to see open interest expand in the
May’22 contract as positions begin to get rolled over, a good time for a Friday move to strike a
little fear into a (potentially over-confident) trading pit.
In macro news (7), China’s imports of unwrought copper (mostly concentrate) in December
rose by 7.6% compared to the same month of 2020 and +15.4% from November, the total at
589,165 metric tonnes. That’s the fourth month of YoY growth and a big step away from the
demand concerns of mid-2021. It’s worth considering the psychological effect that the lull in
imports in 2q21 may have later this year. At the time, we saw smelters going offline under
directives from the central government to conserve power supply, so come 2q22 we’re set for
eye-popping YoY numbers for copper import growth into China. Meanwhile, on the other side of
the smelters, China’s stats office reported national copper production up 6.7% month-over-
month.
We move on, with week one of 2022’s copper inventories data:
 The aggregate total in the three official world systems rose modestly last week, up
5,512 metric tonnes (mt) to close Friday at 184,636mt. Mostly harmless.
 At the Shanghai SHFE, stocks added a thin 1,148mt to close at 30,330mt. As the SHFE-
dedicated chart below shows, we’re still waiting for the season re-stock to begin.
 Thin gruel at LME as well, where stocks rose but only by 1,525mt in trading also that
was temporarily hit by a power cut in London on Thursday (LME even returned to full
open outcry trades for a few minutes…oldskool). Stocks finished the week at 86,300mt,
still extremely tight compared to any other period in recent history.
 And finally, Comex again threw off the most interesting signal of the week. The
inventory build wasn’t quite as big as the last couple of weeks, but the 2,839mt added
was better than the other two and means its momentum continues. Stocks at Comex
are now at 70,006mt, they hold more than the SHFE and are snapping at the LME
heels. Please see the extra chart below for a little more on the subject.
Now for the regular Shanghai-only inventories chart and the turn higher is still in the future. As
noted last weekend, the turn can come in the next three weeks and still be on schedule, but if
we get beyond Valentine’s Day there will be less love for copper bears.
Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2014 to date
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
20
31'13ceD ht9 ht81 ht72 ht5tco ht41 dn22 dr3yam ht21 ht02 ht92 ht7bef ht71 ht62 ht4peS ht31 ht92 ht9 ht81 ht72 ht5von ht41 ht52 ht01 ht91 ht82 ht6naJ ht71 ht62 ht4gua ht31 dn22 202ts1ram ht01 ht91 ht72 0202ht6ced ht41 ht52 1202ht4luj ht21 ts12
Mt Cu
|
source: Cochilco
As for the Comex total, here’s a 12 month chart:

12 months of Comex copper stocks
80000
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
21
12
naj
bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 22
naj
source: LME data
reppoc
sennot
cirtem
In fact that’s twelve and a half months, as we’re only half way through January 2022 and
there’s time to add to the latest column. What catches the eye is less the total, now 70k and
bits, more the counter-cyclical way in which Comex copper stocks have grown while both LME
and SHFE scramble for tonnages. The Comex warehouses are mainly New Orleans and Los
Angeles, far from the madding crowds of copper end-users and way in which stocks are up
from a low of 41kmt in July is stark contrast to the well-documented depletions at LME and
SHFE. So the point we make is simple, the same one as last weekend: If The USA were
considering taking on China and moving the price of copper in the direction that least suited its
newly-minted fremeny-in-chief, surely the first thing The USA would need is leverage on market
supply. That’s what makes the above chart most interesting to this desk.
Now for notes on a couple of basket stocks:
Hot Chili (HCH.v) (HCH.ax): The TSXV listing did 476k of volume on Wednesday (perhaps a
newsletter pump somewhere?) and over 600k total on the week. That’s enough for our
purposes and, as a result, HCH is now in-line with the other 14 basket members and priced in
Canadian Dollars via its Dot Vee listing.
Regulus Resources (REG.v): The last couple of weeks have seen anti-mining sentiment rise
again around the REG operations at AntaKori and for the last two weeks, a group of “water not
mining” anti-miners have threatened a protest action against the company, with the date fixed
for tomorrow Monday January 17th. The threatened action has its supporters and opponents,
with locals closest to the zone mainly supporting the company and those in zones further afield
against the presence of “the transnational”. As always in local/regional Peruvian politics, it’s
complicated and nothing is cut and dried, but the new round of bad blood seems to date from
November last year when representatives from REG didn’t show up at a scheduled meeting
between company and locals.
With the anti-miners living some distance from the project and its close neighbours as
supporters, it’s difficult to know whether anything will
happen tomorrow so the rule of thumb is “no news is good
news”. The likely result is that nothing much happens
(protests of this sort are fairly regular in Cajamarca high
country and are often thinly-disguised shakedowns), but if
some type of march is forthcoming the exposed location of
the only drill currently turning means that REG would be
foolhardy not to at least withdraw its rig and personnel for
the day.But whatever happens next week, we shouldn’t
expect drill results news from this stock before March. Also
and as seen here, I’m glad I’m in ALDE and not REG.
Coast Copper (COCO.v): We’re now in the time window in which we can expect results of its
first pass drill campaign and, tellingly, COCO was one of the companies “invited” (i.e. they paid
money) to the Metals Investment Forum this weekend. That detail is in-line with the fact it has
Scott Gibson on its board and as a large shareholder, as Eric Coffin/Gwen Preston were both

“invited speakers” (i.e. collected a fat speaker’s fee) at the conference and chose which of their
companies to showcase to the masses.
Second-guessing drill results is a high-risk game and not for everyone, but with the promo
around COCO.v now getting into gear we at least know the timing is about right. I’ve decided
not to trade this stock, but that’s my call. Those of you wanting to “play Vancouver” should now
consider your cards marked regarding this stock
The Producer Basket
After two weeks of 2022, the Producer Basket shows a loss of 4.56% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/22 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 62.02 797.44 48.82 61.22 -1.3%
2 Barrick GOLD 19.00 1779 33.23 18.68 -1.7%
3 Franco-Nevada FNV 138.29 191.192 24.86 130.04 -6.0%
4 Agnico Eagle AEM 53.14 453.5 23.31 51.41 -3.3%
5 Wheaton PM WPM 42.93 450.3 17.86 39.66 -7.6%
6 Gold Fields GFI 10.99 887.72 9.33 10.51 -4.4%
7 Kinross Gold KGC 5.81 1320 7.38 5.59 -3.8%
8 B2Gold BTG 3.93 1055.6 3.77 3.57 -9.2%
9 Alamos Gold AGI 7.69 392.503 2.79 7.10 -7.7%
10 Sandstorm SAND 6.20 191.4 1.18 6.15 -0.8%
All prices and stock quotes in U$ Port. avg -4.56%
The good news is that I get to continue my wild fantasy from last week, stay naively optimistic
and assume the worst week for PM stocks in 2022 was its week one. We saw nine out of our
ten basket stocks recover and post positively last week, the only exception being B2Gold (BTG
down 1.9%). As for the winners, by far the best move came from Sandstorm (SAND up 9.0%)
and all the others traded in a tight bunch, the biggest seven market cappers in a +21.& to
+3.2% range that tells us the money came in from the top-down and that GDX was the ruling
influence.
As with the other basket segments, once we have a reasonable sample of a few weeks the
tracking charts return. Until such time, just a couple of company notes.
B2Gold (BTG): The worst of the bunch last week and the only loser, BTG has started 2022 the
way it left 2021, i.e. badly. The corporate strategy at BTG has been different to others in the
Tier 1 and 2 range for a while, with most majors and large caps making at least noises about
reducing exposure to riskier countries and
concentrating efforts on the highest quality risk
jurisdictions. Hence the moves by Newmont,
Newcrest, Barrick, Kinross and others to buy
assets in North America, but BTG has gone on a
different path by sticking to the more marginal
African countries, as well as Philippines and
Colombia. In some respects that has paid off and
its Masbate purchase has worked out well,
however Africa is another story. Zimbabwe has
been on the company’s radar for several years
and BTG bucked the trend by again talking it up
as a possible investment in 2021.
Now we have its exposure to Mali on radar, as the interim military government’s refusal to stick
to its timeline for democratic elections has it in trouble with neighbours. Last Monday, West
22

Africa country collective ECOWAS slapped sanctions on Mali but as fuel supply lines are
reportedly not part of the sanctions package, BTG was quoted by Reuters as saying it could ride
them at its highly profitable Fekola mine. All the same, the BTG stock price took its inevitable
hit (8) as seen (right, compared to GDX):
JOHANNESBURG, Jan 11 (Reuters) - Canadian miner B2Gold's Fekola mine in Mali
continues to operate normally and remains unaffected by sanctions imposed on the
country by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), CEO Clive
Johnson told Reuters on Tuesday.
B2Gold expects Fekola to meet its 2022 production targets and the mine appears well
placed to withstand any supply disruptions that could be caused by ECOWAS border
closures, he said in written responses to Reuters' questions.
"However, we are also looking at alternative routings to bring in some critical supplies
should that be necessary," Johnson said, adding that alternate routings may be
necessary for the movement of personnel.
As for me, do I regret the stubborn inclusion of BTG in this year’s list? To be honest, yes I do a
little. The main reason was the rather trite “what goes down must go up” assumption that BTG
would eventually put in a decent year, but, with country risk parameters already moving against
the company, I cannot but help feel a twinge of regret and all while watching Buenaventura
(BVN) rally well, too. BTG is now 9.2% down in 2022 and 29% down YoY, not good.
Sandstorm Gold (SAND): The biggest mover of the week, up 9.0% and the positive outlier
that offset the poor start by B2Gold. Here’s the evolution of its sales data and…
…while not totally sure as to why SAND rallied so
well on its 4q21 production NR, I’ll take the result
as it helps justify its inclusion as our “leverage
play” for the 2022 list. The preliminary sales
number of 16,600 oz AuEq was good without
being great, average received price for gold (eq)
was U$1,975/oz which exactly matches the
London PM fix average for the quarter, in-
company costs were normal. So taking into
account its relatively poor December compared to
streamer/royalty peers (here it is against FNV and
WPM, right) it may simply be a case of catch-up.
The TinyCaps List
After two weeks of 2022, the TinyCaps show a gain of 6.04% to level stakes:
23

company ticker price 1/1/22 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Aurelius Min AUL.v 0.24 37.134 12.44 0.335 39.6%
Golden Pursuit GDP.v 0.13 34.638 4.68 0.135 3.8%
Infield Min INFD.v 0.06 48.276 2.90 0.06 0.0%
Kingfisher Met KFR.v 0.30 84.57 21.99 0.26 -13.3%
Latin Metals LMS.v 0.12 57.296 6.88 0.12 0.0%
Manitou Gold MTU.v 0.06 344.47 22.39 0.065 8.3%
Melkior Res MKR.v 0.295 24.011 7.68 0.32 8.5%
Precipitate Gold PRG.v 0.105 129.322 16.17 0.125 19.0%
Signature Res SGU.v 0.07 238.4 16.69 0.07 0.0%
Winshear Gold WINS.v 0.08 61.585 5.85 0.095 -6.3%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 6.04%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $20m. They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a
little and allowed sub-U$20m market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, but it was a particularly depressing exercise to trawl through the whole of the TSXV and find companies
that are small enough, but with life in them. The vast majority of sub-$20m stocks are broken stocks, either
traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2020. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
The tinycaps remains quiet, with patchy trading and wide price swings in stocks with big gaps
between the bid and the ask. That said, the general direction was upward last week and our
four winning stocks (AUL.v, GDP.v, MTU.v, MKR.v) beat out the single loser (WINS.v), with the
other five on our list of ten representative stocks remaining unchanged. There are things to say
about a couple of the stocks, however.
Kingfisher Metals (KFR.v): Somehow or other, this stock finished the week UNCH:
There’s still a medium-sized seller of the stock, as witnessed by the 350k lump that went
through on Tuesday and the way its rebound was repeatedly nipped in the bud, all the same
those are 10%+ swings on virtually each trade and testament to the lack of trust in this
exploreco after its first swing-and-miss at its Cloud Drifter target in 2021. On that subject, KFR
rolled out its second proposed drill target at Goldrange on Wednesday morning, in this NR (9)
that included this annotated photo which gives a good idea of the scale in which this team gets
to do geology:
24

They’re calling it the “Day Trip Zone” and it’s a reminder of why we’re following KFR this year;
after its dump at the end of 2021, as a consequence the company (just about) qualified for our
tinycaps list and has a hatful of live targets at which they can test their geological theory of the
region of Canada. Drilling at the new target is slated for 2q22, then it’s up to hole placement
and mother nature.
Aurelius Minerals (AUL.v): The decent upmove in this stock last week was another reminder
of the reasons why a stock got its place in the 2022 tinycaps list. The vulgar are quick to quote
themselves, so here’s an excerpt of segment on AUL in IKN658 dated January 2nd, as we
presented the new list:
“…at least this way we can keep tabs on its progress (or otherwise). I cannot shake the
feeling that I’ve made a mistake by selling the recent low, AUL could surprise the
whole market with a large, good grading gold resource with its MRE. Time will tell, but
at least this way I won’t be able to ignore my potential mistake by selling.”
Too true; The move on minor news of an incentive
options award (at 35c, for applause for AUL for not
pitching the strike price as low as possible) was strong
and came with renewed volume interest, as this three-
month chart shows (right). I’m hardly the only trader
guilty of cleaning out losers and deadwood at the very
bottom of a price cycle at year-end, but there’s no
doubt about my guilt either. I wish AUL well, its 2021
was a hard year of incessant selling into mostly positive
newsflow, we therefore look to its upcoming initial
resource estimate to see if it can truly turn the corner.
The caveat of low treasury position remains, however,
they’ll need to finance sooner rather than later.
Winshear Gold Corp (WINS): Here’s another tinycap
that’s trading by appointment and seeing its share price
being whacked hither and thither on gossamer volumes
(right). Aside its very cheap price, WINS is an area play
trade on the prospective Puno orogenic belt system.
Very high risk, but the penny-level prices while being
totally ignored are right for deep speculation. This will
likely take its cue from news out of big brother
company Palamina Corp (I’m long with a foothold
position) and perhaps even news from Minera IRL at
Ollachea if a deal ever gets done on that project.
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future
I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet aretrictly neutral.
25

Regional politics
Chile and mining during the Presidential changeover period
Your ingredients are:
 A relatively long period between the result of the Presidential election (December 19th)
and the handover of power to Gabriel Boric (March 11th)
 A tidal shift switch from the Right wing Piñera to the Left wing Boric, with all that
entails inside government and the Chilean public sector.
 Outgoing President Sebastian Piñera caught red-handed in shady dealings around
mining companies, first and foremost the Dominga scandal revealed by the Panama
Papers revelations.
 The new Left wing government’s emphasis on environmental protection, including items
on the table at the sitting Constitutional Convention proposed for inclusion in the 3q22
referendum set to change Chile’s Constitution.
The result has brought the mining sector into focus in Chile in several ways. We’ve already
commented on how Chile’s Chamber of Mining
(CAEM) has fallen into line and is trying its level
best to promote the cause of the mining industry
inside the new political framework. Without
shouting it loud, Chile’s miners are resigned to
higher royalties on their operations for copper and
lithium and the bill to raise royalties on EBIT,
stalled in the Senate after passing the lower house
in May 2021, is sure to become a part of the new
Boric government’s policy. However and as
predicted in IKN656 dated the day Boric won the
runoff December 19th, the market tracker ETF for
Chile (ECGH) has bounced back well. We wrote that
day, “…going long ECH once the early effects have
washed through is the winning trade between now and his inauguration” and to toot the IKN
horn a little, anyone taking the U$21.50 prices the next day Monday has done well
Chile’s overall economic outlook has bounced back for the shrill cries of “Commies!” but the
mining sector has had its own concerns. The fight has centred around the decision by the
Piñera government to go ahead with a tender for a large lithium concession, which was won by
a Chinese capitals concern. The move was opposed by the Boric changeover government and
has now been suspended, with all the political hoo-hah one can imagine between left and right
as part of the controversy. However, mining is set for a protagonist role in the 155 seat
Constitutional Convention as it debates proposals for the draft constitution, on which the nation
gets to vote. The petition system means that proposals that get enough official signatures must
be debated by the Convention and they include radical measures, such as the one that got past
the 15,000-signature minimum last week and proposes the nationalization of the entire Chilean
copper and lithium mining sectors. The signature gathering for petitions of all types will
continue until the deadline of February 1st and as more signatures means more heft during the
debates nobody is stopping at the 15k minimum. For example, those behind the proposal to
nationalize copper and lithium production want to get to 100k signatures if possible (10).
The good news for us on the outside is that 100k or not, that proposal is highly unlikely to gain
traction. The Convention’s aim is toward the eventual referendum with its up/down “accept or
reject” vote on the whole draft constitution, so delegates have to present a document that will
be accepted by the majority. Realpolitik will be part of the process in the next two quarters, but
it gives an idea of the depth of feeling against the “old way” in Chile and the rearguard action
its mining industry faces this year. The lead concerns for mining are mostly around the
26

proposals for tighter environmental and water use laws for the large copper and lithium
projects/mines (as we’ve underscored on several occasion, gold projects such as the Rio2 Ltd
Fenix project are not in the crosshairs), so the battleground will mostly be “industry vs
environment” lobbies during the Constitutional Convention.
Inflation in LatAm
It’s not just you guys up there, the “inflationary pulse” is being felt in all major LatAm
economies. While it’s best to ignore the long-term inflation hotspot of Argentina for comparative
purposes (and ironically, Venezuela’s hyperinflation is now coming to an end thanks to the de
facto, unofficial dollarization of the country that has nod-wand-wink approval from the Maduro
government), latest figures from the what we can call the “Big Five Serious Economies” in the
region all show the same direction. These are preliminary estimates (as always) but are more
than enough to get the picture, with source Colombia’s DABNE stats body (11):
 Brazil 2021 annual inflation: 10.74%
 Mexico 2021 annual inflation: 7.36%
 Chile 2021 annual inflation: 7.2%
 Peru 2021 annual inflation: 6.43%
 Colombia 2021 annual inflation: 5.62%
For context, Colombia used a 3% inflation targeting (remember that defunct tool) for last year
and probably missed by the least of the big five. Peru’s +6.43% was double the high end of its
target range and would have been worse if it hadn’t been for the drop in economic activity
caused by its political turmoil in the first half of the year (and anecdotally, your author can
assure readers that most items in Peru have risen quickly in price in the last three months).
Meanwhile, Brazil is no stranger to high levels of inflation and while the biggest jump, will make
less dent in the country’s real economy. The big changes are Mexico, which is seeing inflation
directly fueled by its northern neighbour, then Chile, which started 2021 with an inflation target
range of between 2% and 4% but missed royally, its aggravating factor being the way it needs
to import energy (hydrocarbons, electricity from neighbouring states etc).
Argentina: La Rioja protests against Josemaria in San Juan
We noted the start of potential issues over the holiday period, now we have anti-mining groups
in Argentina’s La Rioja province forming roadblocks and stopping supply truck access to mining
projects in the Andean foothills. The main target is the Josemaria project owned by the Lundin
group junior Josemaria (JOSE.v), as despite that project being on the San Juan side of the
provincial border the activists in La Rioja claim it will affect glaciers and water sources that
provide drinking water to their province. The La Rioja local government made a statement this
weekend in reply (12) to the anti-mine organizations which amounted to, “We haven’t
authorized anything and we can’t do much, because the project isn’t in our province.”
Panama and First Quantum
First reported in Asian trade paper Macau Business (13) on Friday, Panama offers us yet
another example of why mining companies are better off sticking with established mining
countries with a history and experience of the industry. Negotiations between First Quantum
(FM.to) and the country of Panama on a new State burdens for its Cobre Panama mine began
last September, after a court ruled its previous contract was unconstitutional. Two years before
that and before taking office, current President Cortizo said that the contract with Cobre
Panama should be renegotiated for “more public benefit” (14). That was mainly because First
Quantum had agreed on a “works for taxes” deal that meant it could offset capex against future
income tax payments, but with capex coming in wildly over-budget Panama decided to renege
on the deal and, big surprise, its courtrooms agreed with the government. Negotiations have
dragged on since September, Panama's trade and industry minister Ramon Martinez saying
from the start that if a new deal wasn’t forthcoming the country would consider handing the
license to another operator, while FM.to has done its level best to ignore the latent threats from
the government. However, tempers now seemed to have snapped and Panama last week told
FM to come to the table and reach agreement by tomorrow Monday January 17th else see its
27

operating license revoked. Here’s how the Macau Business report starts:
Panama on Thursday gave Canadian miner First Quantum an ultimatum to agree to pay more
taxes or lose its right to extract copper in the Central American country.
A First Quantum subsidiary, Minera Panama, is negotiating a new contract with the Panamanian
government to continue extracting copper at an open air mine.
“We still don’t have an agreement… we’ve told the company that we must have a response by
Monday at the latest,” said Ramon Martinez, the minister for commerce and industries.
The government is demanding the company increase its annual royalties payments on gross
profits from copper extracted in Panama from two to 16 percent.
It is also requesting the company pay income tax, and wants to eliminate other tax benefits
agreed in the previous contract.
With these measures, the government hopes to generate annual income of more than $400
million.
Martinez said Panama must receive “fair economic benefits for the exploitation and loss of its
mineral resources.”
“We cannot accept anything less than what we have presented.”
I beg to differ and bet they can. While FM will likely have to pay more, hiking royalties this
dramatically is a tough call and it’s difficult to see how the government can make good on what
amounts to its only real threat, to revoke the mine’s operating license and lay off the thousands
of workers at the mine (the blueprint being the recent spat between MMG at Las Bambas Peru
and locals, with Peru’s government quickly dragged into the mess when jobs were on the line).
Mexico’s Supreme Court and Almaden Minerals (AMM.to)
As mentioned briefly on the blog last week, January 19th sees the case brought against
Almaden Minerals (AMM.to) by the Nahua Community of Puebla Mexico, specifically the Ejido
de Tecoltemi Edjido and the municipality of Ixtacamaxtitlán, reach a final stage. The locals have
been fighting against the installation of the Ixtaca mining project owned by Almaden Minerals
(AMM.to) for as long as this desk has been covering LatAm political affairs on mining and
finally, after a seven year court battle against a company that has tried every trick in the legal
book to delay, obfuscate and deny a legally binding ruling from happening, the case comes up
in Mexico’s Supreme Court on January 19th (15).
The case before the Supreme Court Hill decide whether the country’s Mining Law contravenes
key indigenous rights as laid out in Mexico’s constitution and as lower courts have already ruled
against Almaden and for the local communities, it would be a surprise at this stage to see the
final and legally binding decision going against the local community side. Indeed, even Mexico’s
environmental body SEMARNAT last week wrote an open letter to the Supreme Court, asking it
to rule against the mining company and set a legal precedent that could affect many other
disputed mining projects (and even operations. The heart of the issue are clauses in the current
Mining Law which state that in the case of a concession being granted to a mining company,
that company will also have first rights on the resources it needs to bring its project into
operation, e.g. it gives companies the right to land and water that would otherwise be owned
by surrounding communities. This case will decide whether the current mining law needs to be
changed and that means the ramifications of this ruling could be felt anywhere mining is not
welcomed in Mexico by its neighbours.
Be clear, Almaden and its management (start with the Poliquin brothers, Duane and Morgan)
have been notoriously bad actors toward Mexican communities for at least a decade, their
“screw you” attitude toward local communities the root cause for opposition to projects in
Morelos (Cerro Jumil), Veracruz (Caballo Blanco, Candelaria) and here at their wholly-owned
project Ixtaca, among others. Far from the image they’d like to portray, this company is now
about to get its concessions taken away if the case goes by its normal course. The legacy of
AMM in Mexico may turn out to be the company that made it tougher for other, more
upstanding mining companies to do business in the marginal zones of Mexico, forced the
government to change its mining law and handed free ammunition to anti-mining groups.
Nicaragua’s gold mining industry under closer scrutiny
The swearing-in of dictator Daniel Ortega for his fourth term of office in Nicaragua this week
has brought more eyes on the country’s political dealings and a Spanish-language report took
28

me to this November 2021 report from The Oakland Institute entitled, “Nicaragua's Forgotten
Deforestation Crisis”. The headline stat comes under the report subheader, “Nicaragua’s forests
disappeared at an average annual rate of 2.56 percent between 2015 and 2020, according to
United Nations figures analyzed by Our World in Data”, which is by far the fastest rate of
deforestation in the world today and nearly five times faster than the poster child bad actor,
Brazil. Illegal logging and new cattle ranches are culprits, but the growth of Nicaragua’s gold
mining industry is getting increased scrutiny. Here’s one section of the OCCRP report (16) and
your author adds highlights:
The government has named agribusiness and cattle ranching as the top drivers of
forest loss. Environmentalists say Nicaragua’s booming gold industry is also a growing
problem, with mining projects causing deforestation and pollution, and driving violence
against indigenous people.
Despite presenting itself as anti-deforestation — Ortega even refused to sign the Paris
Agreement for two years on the basis it did not go far enough — Nicaragua’s
government has worked hard to promote these sectors. From 2006 to 2017, mining
concessions more than tripled as environmental regulations were slashed and the
government created a state mining company to cash in, according to Nicaraguan
environmental group Centro Humboldt.
State investment agency ProNicaragua has also been criticized for offering vast
amounts of land for plantations and seeking to attract foreign agribusiness with the
“Most Aggressive Fiscal Incentives in the Region.” ProNicaragua is run by Ortega and
Murillo’s son, Laureano Ortega Murillo, who the U.S. sanctioned in 2019 for engaging
in “corrupt business deals”.
Mining and agribusiness also encourage land grabbing, where settlers illegally
clear land that they later sell to these companies. Buitrago estimated 80 percent
of deforestation in Nicaragua is illegal, much of which experts say is enabled by
corrupt local officials.
The former Inafor official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the central
government has tried to eliminate authorities in indigenous territories that do not do
their bidding. “It’s a complete network, that is why they guarantee control over the
elected territorial authorities,” they said.
Incer, the former environment minister, said local government officials also play a
critical role in this network of environmental corruption.
“Local authorities in those municipalities and those departments are the ones in charge
of giving permits, or turning a blind eye, or submitting to a payment to let the trucks go
through,” he said.
“It is a whole skein of corruption that is destroying the survival capacities of
Nicaraguans and making Nicaragua a poorer country.”
Ecuador’s Chamber of Mining whistles past the graveyard
On Monday, “Bloomberg Linea” (Spanish language in-depth bureau) conducted an interview
with Maria Eulalia Silva, president of the country’s Chamber of Mining (17), which was reported
in Spanish and later in an English language translation under the title “Ecuador Has ‘World
Class’ Deposits, But Mining Sector Faces Challenges to Growth”.
After a standard intro question or two about Ecuador’s mining industry in which she compares
(cliché alert) the country’s nascent mining sector to that of Peru or Chile (1% of GDP instead of
10% or 12%), Bloomberg got to the meat of the issue and the recent Constitutional Court
ruling, which targeted the Cornerstone Capital ‘Los Cedros’ project but, as this publication has
pointed out on several occasions, has set a legal precedent that mining in Ecuador now has to
deal with. What’s most interesting about the interview is how Ms. Silva now recognizes the legal
precedent now in place but then goes on to wish it didn’t exist, then ignores its potential effects
on the country’s project pipeline. To begin, when asked for advantages of Ecuador as an FDI
destination Ms. Silva says "Politically, Ecuador is starting to have an advantage as President
Guillermo Lasso has recently come into office so we have a low country risk factor." This desk
agrees that the country risk has improved somewhat with the pro-business Lasso in power, but
last week’s +794 basis points rating for the country compares to +149 points for neighbour
Peru and is a long way from any level that could be considered “low risk”.
The reporter then moved to the main event and Los Cedros, to which Ms. Silva replied that the
29

CC decision "will not be reversed". This is correct as it is the highest court in the land (and a
few days ago the CC on demand from Chamber of Mining lawyers ratified its decision and
changed nothing ion its ruling). However, she then says, "...it is a pity, because Ecuador was
just positioning itself within the region" and that investors were about to inject more capital just
weeks before the ruling was handed down.
To reporter Angela Melendez’s credit, she pressed the president of the Chamber of Mining on
this question and was told the CC decision was, "…an affront to legal security" and that the CC
had "suddenly changed the rules" which would now "scare away investment". A strange
position for a lawyer such as Ms. Silva to take. Firstly because CC didn’t change anything.
Instead, the decision handed down was a ratification of a lower court's decision and made clear
that the country's Constitution (Article 407) was to be respected. Secondly, Ms. Silva was still
apparently longing for what might have been, rather than admitting the CC ruling was made
and would not change. The same attitude came in the next sentence, when Ms. Silva
complained that "protected forests were not included" in the rules and that allowed Cornerstone
Capital, the State run Enami mining company and all other mining companies with concessions
in protected forest areas to explore without doing prior consultancies. Once again we need to
direct readers away from a fantasy world and back to reality: It does and they must, as the CC
made clear. The Ecuador Chamber of Mining’s position is simply incorrect.
The spin continued when the reporter asked her about the impact of the ruling, to which she
replied, "There are some impacts, one of which is that everyone is now anxious". You may
presume her “everyone” to be fellow members of the mining chamber of commerce, but Ms.
Silva also included the communities around mining projects as “people worried that mining
projects won't move forward quickly.” The reality is very different and in fact, as CONAIE and
the country's indigenous political powers will quickly point out to anyone who cares to listen, it's
the people closest to large mining projects in Ecuador who most vehemently opposed them,
with Ecuador's pro-mining populations tending to country's urban areas. To cap off the
alternate reality offered by the president of the Chamber of Mining, Ms. Silva insists that "an
environmental consultation is not needed" by exploration stage mining operations when the CC
ruling has just told her and her fellows the precise opposite. This is not a healthy position for an
industry that now needs to get used to a different way of doing business.
As any junior mining investor knows, just because you want something to be true doesn't make
it so, but Ecuador's Chamber of Mining seems to be keen on ignoring the new reality. Case in
point came at the end of the interview, when Ms. Silva said that they expect three mining
projects will move forward in the next four years and named them as Loma Larga (Dundee),
Curipamba (Adventus/Salazar) and La Plata (Atrico), with Cascabel (SolGold) "planned for a
later date". Forgive this desk for being blunt, but take the under on all four of those projects
making progress in the timescale proposed and, until it changes its top brass, take anything
that comes from the country’s Chamber of Mining in 2022 with a large pinch of salt
Market Watching
Deferred
Maybe it’s just me, but two weeks into 2022 and nothing much of interest to report.
Conclusion
IKN660 is done, we end with bullet points:
 The financial year for mining companies is beginning to crank up and while I’m a little
mystified that there wasn’t anything interesting enough for the Market Watching pot
pourri, that will change soon enough.
30

 The copper trades are going well generally, the main concern is Trilogy (TMQ) so I’ll be
tuning in on Wednesday to hear CEO Giardini’s take on the mediocre share price
performance of the last three months. Or maybe it’s six months.
 Next week will also have a closer look at the fundamentals of the two Top Picks,
instead of mere arm-waving and vague assurances that everything is okay.
 Discovery Silver (DSV.v) looks in great shape on the back of that PEA. I’d expect the
stock to get brokerage upgrades this coming week, now that Canada’s sell side houses
have had time to digest the contents of the document. My only silver trade and a
darned good one at that.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stocks are Minera Alamos (MAI.v) and
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v). Flash updates will be sent if required by events. And be long copper.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best, Mark
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) http://www.amerigoresources.com/_resources/news/nr_2022_01_13.pdf
(2) https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mcewen-mining-cfo-temporary-medical-002200442.html
(3) https://finance.yahoo.com/news/palamina-concludes-2021-drill-program-133000848.html
(4) https://cumtn.com/investors/press-releases/2022/copper-mountain-mining-announces-fourth-quarter-an-3899/
(5) https://trilogymetals.com/news-and-media/news/trilogy-metals-announces-the-2022-program-and-budget-for-the-
upper-kobuk-mineral-projects-and-provides-update-on-arctic/
(6) https://6ix.com/event/high-grade-safe-jurisdiction-quality-partners/
(7) https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/china-december-copper-imports-at-589165-3-tonnes/
(8) https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-b2gold-says-mali-mine-093621279.html
(9) https://finance.yahoo.com/news/kingfisher-confirms-drill-target-day-103000395.html
(10) https://www.elciudadano.com/chile/iniciativa-popular-nacionalizacion-de-las-empresas-de-la-gran-mineria-del-
cobre-el-litio-y-el-oro-supero-las-15-mil-firmas-de-apoyo-en-la-convencion/01/10/
(11) https://www.df.cl/noticias/internacional/economia/inflacion-cerro-disparada-en-latinoamerica-en-2021-arriba-de-
meta-de/2022-01-09/091938.html
(12) https://www.pagina12.com.ar/395245-iniciaron-cortes-selectivos-para-impedir-el-pase-de-camiones
(13) https://www.macaubusiness.com/panama-issues-ultimatum-to-canadian-mining-
giant/?__cf_chl_f_tk=smGAKd85nPzvgiNNV5u3dbpcvk1BbifFfQECo7aRzbM-1642307873-0-gaNycGzNCGU
(14) https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/negotiations-over-major-copper-mine-contract-kick-off-panama-2021-09-
01/
(15) https://www.sinembargo.mx/11-01-2022/4101360
(16) https://www.occrp.org/en/investigations/nicaraguas-forgotten-deforestation-crisis
(17) https://www.bloomberglinea.com/2022/01/10/camara-de-mineria-ecuador-tiene-yacimientos-de-clase-mundial/
31

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2021
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Set-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Abr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Res ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v nov'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
Aurelius Min. AUL.v dec'21 C$0.75 28-Jun-20 0.24 -68.0% cut end 2021, failed trade
Argonaut Gold AR.to dec'21 C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$2.15 -27.1% cut on capex blowout
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
32

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Ago-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Set-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Ene-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Set-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Ene-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Set-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Ago-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Abr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Set-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Abr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Set-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
33

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-ago-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-ene-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-abr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-abr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-ene-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-ene-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-abr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-abr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
34