IKN #654Premium

The IKN Weekly
Week 654, December 5th 2021
Contents
This Week: In Today’s edition, Never trust a newsletter writer, The GLD inventory build takes
a margin call pause.
Fundamental Analysis: The Discovery Silver (DSV.v) PEA
Stocks to Follow: Palamina Corp (PA.v), Mene Inc (MENE.v), Minera Alamos (MAI.v), Trilogy
Metals (TMQ), Argonaut Gold (AR.to), QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v), Great Bear Resources
(GBR.v).
Copper Basket: Overview, Amerigo Resources (ARG.to), Solaris Resources (SLS.to), Chakana
Copper (PERU.v).
Producer Basket: Overview, Newmont (NEM).
Tiny Dogs: Overview.
Regional Politics: Ecuador’s Constitutional Court ruling, Argentina and Moody’s and the IMF
and Mining and US Dollars, Argentina Chubut: The pro-mining lobby makes its case, Chile:
Polling and second round update, Peru: The Presidential impeachment process continues, Peru:
MMG at Las Bambas plays hardball.
Market Watching: The VID V / Laurentian Bank webinar this week, Capstone Mining (CS.to)
buys Mantos Copper, Coast Copper (COCO.v) starts drilling.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
In Today’s Edition
 We get back to real analysis on real mining companies this weekend, I for one have
had more than enough of three thousand word essays on $20m market cappers with
corrupt boardrooms and pathetic management teams. If you want information and
views on “that company”, please see the Silicon Investor dedicated bullboard (1).
 Indeed, Discovery Silver (DSV.v) is the diametric opposite of the MIRLs of this world.
The price action last week might suggest otherwise, but DSV returned a sparkling PEA
and, unlike the majority of first-pass economic reports, this 43-101 compliant PEA
stands up to close examination. We were already long and fans of DSV, today’s main
Fundamentals section explains why it’s the right silver company to own into 2022.
 I wasn’t wrong about the effects of Omicron on this market, merely early on the right
call . Facetiousness aside, today’s intro may annoy those who lost money last week
but your author never ducks hard truths and, if we get down to brass tacks, the only
fear is fear itself. That’s “Never trust a newsletter writer”, just below.
 You want opinions on Ecuador and its mining sector? We have those . Today’s
Regional politics considers the ramifications of last week’s Constitutional Court ruling
out of Ecuador against State-owned Enami mining company and Cornerstone Capital
(CGP.v). In other regional news, we look at Argentina’s pending push to get mining
companies invested and MMG’s hardball play at Las Bambas in Peru that will blow over,
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as well as other things. There are always other things.
 The second week of “virusy, panicky market action” took its toll on mining stocks, we
survey the damage to the stocks I own, as usual in ‘Stocks to Follow’. Meanwhile China
counts its good fortune as is still doesn’t have to pay up for its voracious copper
appetite, that’s The Copper Basket where we continue to bang the table on our long
position for copper stocks. We like Cu going forward but most of all, please pay
attention to the extended note on Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) as ducks are now
apparently in line at that company.
Never trust a newsletter writer
Remember that part last week about how the jitters and panicky selling of the Friday market
and Omicron made its debut to an attentive world guaranteed that the red ink in IKN653
wouldn’t be repeated in IKN654, this weekend? How last weekend’s price deck for junior miners
(and seniors for that matter) wasn’t representative or a “snapshot in time” of market reality?
The strident and confident prediction of a bounce in our sector of focus, all on the back of
higher gold prices and the start of systemic weakness
in the US Dollar with an intro that finished with a
flourish and a “…it’s now our turn and metals prices
are about to rise”?
Instead of that, we got GDSX down 4.45% on the
week, GDXJ down 5.43% and plenty of other market
sectors rushing for the exit door (e.g. tech stocks),
the sentiment turbocharged by the Fed’s Jay Powell,
who made a special effort to be this year’s Christmas
Grinch by underscoring that plans to complete the so-
called taper sooner, rather than later. As the chart
(right) shows, we weren’t exactly bathing in positive
momentum before the Fed chair’s comments on Wednesday morning but that’s when the real
damage happened, all right.
So somewhat counter-intuitively, the Fed is suddenly forcing the window on the taper and we
should consider why that might be. To do so, here’s a chart of the US Dollar index (DXY) and
thoughts on what Omicron is and isn’t.
Back in the heady days of the first lockdown, the world went weird on us all and, to a certain
extent, The IKN Weekly went weird on you. While I’m sure you had better things on your mind
at the time some of you may recall that, to all intents and purposes, your author “suspended
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coverage” and normal service of the publication because there wasn’t really much point in
trying to fundamentally analyse a market that defied all fundies analysis. Or that was my
reasoning at least, so even though I got quite a bit of pushback from some corners as well as a
few clients unsubs in the mail, The IKN Weekly spun its wheels for three or four weeks’ worth
of editions while we (I) tried to get a handle on the new world around us (me). However, once
the market settled and the way forward became clearer, it become clear that the world’s
financial overlords would reach for big levers and do “Whatever It Takes” to stop a liquidity
crunch and a full-scale market crash from occurring. The lessons learned from previous crisis
moments, above all the 2008/2009 GFC, had taught them to open up the sluices to keep things
running. Sure enough, that’s what happened and while at least some of the money trickled
down to Main St, it was Wall St that most benefited from the largesse of the world’s central
bankers (well, they and the friends of politicians who suddenly found themselves running multi-
billion dollar face mask companies…go figure). As for The IKN Weekly, we realized that equities
for gold producers were about to get very popular, placed our own bets on stocks such as New
Gold (NGD) and while we didn’t catch every winner, the wins from that period were very good
(and mostly realized, too)
With that context, we dial back to the present day and our new friend, Omicron. This weekend
and new data suggests that the worst fears over this new strain are overblown, but I’m no
doctor and do not discount the risk of Omicron quickly (or any future super-srtrain, for that
matter). Instead our focus is global financial and that’s easier to predict, as if Omicron really is
a Big Thing we also know what the world will do, the roadmap is now clear and can be summed
up in three words: Whatever It Takes. Maybe this explains why Jay Powell is so keen on
tightening all of a sudden and wants to “wrap up the taper” sooner, rather than later. A quick
resolution would give him room to make a meaningful reversal of policy and the chance to
liquefy the cash market, all he’d need to do would be to “admit he was wrong” (with a wink to
Joe Biden), reverse course, get dovish all over again and let the US Dollars wash through.
However, if the current round of fear-mongering is overblown we also know the roadmap; once
this smaller bump were behind us, the world would get back on its course of economic growth.
Or then again maybe Omicron is the Goldilocks Virus; not too benign and not too fatal, but
juuust right and keeps us all guessing for months. Yes, that last one was irony, so leave my
standard facetiousness aside and let’s wrap by considering the metals complex and its
components: Gold isn’t so easy to call higher, because of its very nature as an anchor asset but
Dr. Copper and his industrial friends would either go higher due to the resurgence in demand,
or “Whatever It Takes” makes everything expensive in USD terms just like last year.
Which applies to silver too, and the Jekyll and Hyde metal will surely unwind this…
…and while it’s unlikely to return to the 61x or 62X to gold that we saw at the bottom of last
year’s curve, moving back down to under 75X on the Gold/Silver ratio looks logical. So do not
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fear the reaper, or our new virus variant, or the W.H.O. prophets (profits?) of doom but most of
all, do not fear the Fed, either. The IKN Weekly may have been early with last week’s all-too
confident call, but that doesn’t make it totally wrong.
The GLD inventory build takes a margin call pause
Last week we opined that “The GLD inventory charts may be signalling a turn (at last)” but
warned that we needed more data. Well folks, after last week’s market action that saw equities
of all types whacked, the jury is still out:
GLD gold holdings, 2H21 to date (metric tonnes)
1050
1040
1030
1020
1010
1000
990
980
970
960
950
4
12/1/4 12/1/8 12/1/21 12/1/61 12/1/02 12/1/42 12/1/82 12/2/1 12/2/5 12/2/9 12/2/31 12/2/71 12/2/12 12/2/52 12/3/1 12/3/5 12/3/9 12/3/31 12/3/71 12/3/12 12/3/52 12/3/92 12/4/2 12/4/6 12/4/01 12/4/41 12/4/81 12/4/22 12/4/62 12/4/03 12/5/4 12/5/8 12/5/21 12/5/61 12/5/02 12/5/42 12/5/82 12/6/1 12/6/5
mt
source: SPDR GLD data
Friday’s closing inventory number was 984.38 metric tonnes (mt), around 8.5mt lower than this
time last weekend and while a little frustrating to see gold’s inventory build stymied, it’s also
also normal. We know cash stored in GLD often gets yanked back out by instos to cover near-
term market losses in other places. As for the inventory/price ratio, the recovery from the ultra-
low levels recorded in November took a dent, but at 5.91X its run is not dead, just restin’*.
6.50 GLD: Inventory/Price Ratio, 2H21 to date
6.40
6.30
6.20
6.10
6.00
5.90
5.80
5.70
5.60
5.50
1/7/1202 5/7/1202 9/7/1202 31/7/1202 71/7/1202 12/7/1202 52/7/1202 92/7/1202 2/8/1202 6/8/1202 01/8/1202 41/8/1202 81/8/1202 22/8/1202 62/8/1202 03/8/1202 3/9/1202 7/9/1202 11/9/1202 51/9/1202 91/9/1202 32/9/1202 72/9/1202 1/01/1202 5/01/1202 9/01/1202 31/01/1202 71/01/1202 12/01/1202 52/01/1202 92/01/1202 2/11/1202 6/11/1202 01/11/1202 41/11/1202 81/11/1202 22/11/1202 62/11/1202 03/11/1202
Source: SPDR data, IKN calcs
On that, let’s not note that gold isn’t the only “safe haven store of value” which has been hit by
likely margin call covering recently and my stars, it took some swallowing to use that phrase
about this next chart, snapped on Saturday afternoon (and not updated Sunday evening):
Bitcoin (BTC) is a subject for other people and other places, it rarely gets mention here at The
IKN Weekly for good reason and I’ll stick firmly to my knitting thanks very much, but this
weekend let’s note that “asset class” or not, BTC got whacked. What’s more, on glancing

around this Saturday afternoon (literally two minutes of my time) I see “BTC to $10,000!” bears
showing up, the same shrill voices that call gold to $800/oz or whatever other number on those
occasions when the monetary metal takes a slide against the USD. For BTC maybe it’s year-end
fundraising, maybe there are margins to cover, or maybe it’s the standard momentum move
into T-Bonds and bills. However, the same phenomenon gold-watchers have endured for
decades is now part of the wonderful world of virtual currencies.
*Remarkable bid the Norwegian Blue, beautiful plumage.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
The Discovery Silver (DSV.v) PEA
“If money go before, all ways do lie open.”
The Merry Wives of Windsor, Act2 Sc2
Preamble and price charts
On Tuesday November 30th, The IKN Weekly’s only open silver trade Discovery Silver (DSV.v)
made good on its word to deliver the much-anticipated* Preliminary Economic Assessment
(PEA) for its Cordero silver project in Chihuahua State, North Mexico. We dedicated today’s
main event to the PEA and the extensive news release published by DSV as well as adding extra
information gleaned by your author during the approximate one hour I had with CEO Taj Singh
and VP Corp Dev & IR Forbes Gemmell on Thursday morning. And before diving in, instead of
burying the two links to company literature in the narrative let’s put them here so this link is for
last week’s NR (2) and this one gives you the latest corporate presentation (3).
Our initial coverage of DSV, found in IKN648 dated October 24th in the main fundies note that
day, was prosaically entitled “Discovery Silver (DSV.v): Buying”. That day DSV was a C$1.61
stock so before diving in to the PEA and its contents, let’s dial in a price chart and see how the
equity has traded in the seven weeks since opening coverage:
Okay, I’m being a bit cute by including the Friday 22nd October close of C$1.61, the price
marked up in IKN648, because as you can see
the next day DSV traded strongly on out-sized
volume (don’t kill the messenger) and closed
at C$1.81. Therefore this weekend’s C$1.74
price is either a wash or likely to be minor red
ink for those who followed me in to this trade
(as it is for your truly, see today’s Stocks to
Follow table), but overall no biggie even
though it’s been disappointing to see DSV
come off its C$2.20+ highs. And for context,
here (right) is a second chart that stacks DSV
against silver bullion (SLV proxy) and the
general market for silver shares (SIL proxy):
5

This desk is the first to agree that DSV has been volatile for the last two months, but ultimately
it’s shown relative strength to peers and that’s not a bad thing.
Preamble done, today’s task is to incorporate the numbers from last week’s PEA NR into the
house model, highlight pertinent details that set this PEA apart from most others and get to a
new, more accurate price target that better reflects the potential of DSV at Cordero. However,
it would be remiss just to jump to the Excel sheet and crunch numbers, so some updates and
improvements on other sections of the IKN648 note come first. Once more unto the breach,
dear friends, once more…
*By me at least
Management and shareholders revisited
There was a segment on this in IKN648, but we need to update and refine some of the
information before moving into the meat of today’s note. Management roster first and backing
Discovery Silver with brains trust and money is a full-on, A-Lister, Canadian Rock Star group of
mining names. We start with company Chair Murray John, previously Dundee Resources,
Goodman Investment and other such entities, now also chairing Prime Mining (PRYM) and
director at Osisko Gold Royalties and O3 Mining. Also first among equals is founder Mark O’Dea,
as DSV is part of his “Oxygen Group” stable of companies. The third obligatory name to drop is
Eric Sprott, as retail like seeing him on any register and this is no minor position for him. In his
own words, DSV is “…one of (his) largest investments in the silver space”, which in numbers is
80.44m shares representing 27.4% of shares out, then add in his 14.55m in unexercised
warrants (9m at a C$0.77 strike, then 5.55m at C$1.75) for just under 30% of the Fully Diluted
total count. In other words, Eric Sprott is in deep and this trade is big enough to matter even to
him, a detail to remember when considering the possible exit strategies for our trade. Aside
from the above we go with the information in IKN648, such as founder Mark O’Dea owning
4.8m shares, President/CEO/director Taj Singh with 1.786m and other officers around 2m
shares. Summing up, with plenty of skin in the game and Eric Sprott breathing down their
necks, this structure is as close to optimum as they get.
Three financial charts revisited
You don’t get a repeat of the longer overview of DSV financials, charts and so forth in IKN648
and the opening coverage. We also updated the 3q21 financials last week in IKN653 on their
filing so today we can skip over this subject quickly (happy to say), but you still get three charts
with updated information by way of reminder:
C$m DSV.v: Operation expenses
12
other exp
10 Share payments
prof fees
8
G&A
6 Exploration
4
2
0
-2
1q18 2q18 3q18 4q18 1q19 2q19 3q19 4q19 1q20 2q20 3q20 4q20 1q21 2q21 3q21
source: company filings
Operating expenses give a fair idea of burn rate at DSV, with 3q21 getting through $7.141m in
exploration/evaluation expenses and C$5.895m of that in plain straight drilling (which we love).
The above P+L chart tallies with ther ‘Net cash used in operating activities’ item in its statement
of cash flows ($10.109m) and there’s no reason to expect the company’s development cadence
to drop as we move to PFS stage. That document is due mid-2022, so a reasonable rule of
thumb is that DSV will burn around $10m per quarter going forward.
Next up is cash assets, which include standard treasury plus $15m in a time deposit, making a
6

little interest for the company (smart and neat CFO-ship on display. We add in estimated burn
for the next three quarters assuming no new cash arrives and expect DSV to get to the other
side of its PFS and into FY’23 without raising another dime, if required. Near-optimum here.
DSV.v: Cash assets, per qtr
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
7
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 tse12q4 tse22q1 tse22q2
$m
other current
cash
source: company filings
Finally, shares out are now at an IKN estimated 330.5m and bits for 4q21, thanks to 5.38m
warrants having been exercised since end 3q21, but what really matters now is the Fully Diluted
total with all assumed to become whole (I’m using “this time next year” as an artificial guide):
DSV.v: Shares Out
440.56 440.56 440.56
17.861
12.112 84.112 23.752
15.992 10.503 49.323 51.523 61.523 45.033 073 483 483
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 tse12q4 tse22q1 tse22q2 tse22q3
source: company filings
serahs
fo
snoillim
There are another 55m warrants or so to come out, worth around $50m to treasury assuming
full take-up. That alone would provide enough working capital to see DSV though 2023 (or
treasury becomes part of Enterprise Value in the event of acquisition) which builds more
comfort into using 400m shares for target assumptions, another conservative parameter for our
assumptions and we like those.
Last week’s PEA news release
With background revised and updated, we get to the new news and the PEA. First some
general thoughts, then the new numbers and we wrap with an updated target price. First let’s
remember that we didn’t get the PEA document. On inquiry, it became clear DSV expects to
take most (if not all) its 45 day statutory period before filing the PEA to SEDAR. However, it’s
rare indeed to get the amount of information we did from a PEA announcement NR. The length
of the DSV NR was the first clue (you scroll and scroll) but the content was top notch, even
including some financial analysis as well as details we don’t normally get at this stage. It’s
normal and necessary for a PEA to have information on the mine plan, the processing facility,
pit design etc, but fewer announcement NRs give so much on other matters and we normally
have to wait for the PEA document itself to show, or even wait for the PFS to show. DSV age us
a lot last week, to the point where I mentioned to the team during our call on Thursday that a
retail grunt such as your author hardly needs the PEA document now.
Take for example metallurgy, as this desk has already seen far too many PEAs with scant
mention of what can become a fatal flaw, companies “preferring” to leave such niceties to the
PFS stage. Not here, as DSV is upfront about the amount of work already done and quite right
too. CEO Singh holds the subject of metallurgy close to his (professional) heart and wanted to
get actionable numbers from Cordero from the start, and what he and the rest at DSV have
discovered is the deposit has top level met, with excellent kinetics of main payable metal silver
at low reagent uses, no need for a SAG mill (a significant cost saving right there) and even the

counter-intuitive results that show silver recoveries improving at coarser grind sizes. And once
again, no need to wait 45 days for this information as DSV’s extensive NR last week brought the
world details. This may be due to DSV’s plan to go from PEA stage (end 2021) and produce a
more complete PFS by the middle of next year and yes, you read that correctly. With 99% of
resource already in Measured & Indicated category for the 16 year mine plan, there’s no
extended infill drilling program required to lift the project tonnage from inferred and as a result,
DSV is not hanging around. We can expect a full Pre-Feasibility Study by mid-2022, probably
the period when Q2 becomes Q3. This fact alone helps bolster the numbers and strengthens
the document against the classic criticism faced by all PEA studies. We out here know that “PEA
economics are the best you’ll ever see” for any project, first-pass economic studies can
sometimes be reasonable overviews, but all-too often the CIMM 43-101 system gets abused at
this stage by sketchy juniors publishing flashy promo documents and claiming the marvels, only
to come up short when the PFS arrives…or even if it arrives (too many “updated PEAs”
suddenly replace the correct development path of a junior project). Not here, as DSV knows it
will have the world watching for big differences between its “serious PEA” and a PFS it plans to
deliver in two quarters’ time. This ties in with the advantage of an A-list board of directors, as
the oversight and reputation they bring means the likelihood that we in retail world are being
hoodwinked with this PEA is around zero.
As for the input numbers as seen in the PEA NR last week, they all seem to work. There’s
nothing being underestimated and, during the Thursday call, CEO Singh had clear and logical
justifications for any point or query I had about any capex and opex assumption used. In fact,
on a couple of occasions I had the experience of criticizing him and VP Corp Dev/IR Gemmell
for being too conservative over line items. I was, “Guys, that $10m G&A assumption looks high,
maybe only $8m”, they were, “Hmm…maybe…we wanted to play safe”, etc. Refreshing.
In fact, in the course of the whole document there’s only one criticism that sticks out and its
mostly about style than substance. To get a handle on the weakness, here’s a screenshot:
Ultimately, Cordero is a sulphide resource and its 16 year initial mine life is why we are here
and interested in the company. In IKN648, we assumed 15 years that would concentrate on the
higher grades and that’s what DSV has done, but it’s clear that the 16 year life can be extended
far beyond by use of the lower grade material, some of which will be stockpiled during the mine
life plan (and become a fixed asset on its books, for sure). Just the 300mt or so of known
resource not included in the mine plan would bring that to 20 years, but the footprint will
almost certainly extend as Cordero matures so let’s be real, whoever mines this deposit will be
8

doing so for multiple decades as long as silver prices are conducive. However, Cordero also
comes with a minor top layer of oxides resource from which the plan extracts silver (and some
gold) before they get to the sulphides underneath. In the PEA plan, DSV has gone for assuming
the first year of oxides production is part of the pre-strip that reveals the sulphides and
therefore, the cash flow from the oxide heap leach production counts towards the overall capex
bill. I’m not buying that. Just by moving “Year 0” to when sulphides begin, they assume the
cash they need to mine the oxides is close to net zero and self-funding. I say no and to
illustrate, let’s imagine the purely hypothetical scenario (because M&A is the obvious end game)
of DSV going to bankers and financiers to raise the capex and build it themselves. There’s no
way that me, with my banker’s hat on, will write a cheque for U$386m without knowing in a
cast-iron manner that the company doesn’t need any more money to get to “Year 0” and
production day one on those sulphides. A sweeping assumption that U$137m total of “mining
costs” and “process/G&A costs” are all-but covered by revenues in the pre-production period
doesn’t work for me the banker, because in this case those costs are also part of the pre-strip
for the real mine and pre-strip is capex. Period. The fact that it’s an unusual “payable pre-strip”
for parts of the Cordero deposit is certainly interesting and definitely an advantage, but would
Mark the tight-fisted capitalist banker rely on that money to get the project to its proposed
“production day one”? No way! Therefore DSV can claim its “Net Funding Requirement” at
U$386m and I have no problem with that as a net figure, but when it comes to raising the
capital it will need to secure everything and that means raising around U$500m.
Valuing Discovery Silver
After beginning to lapse into the first person in the previous section, I’m making a more
deliberate decision to stay there for the last part of today’s note in which we do the number-
crunching. Back in IKN648, this section and the eventual C$5.54 price target was based on 8x
EPS and U$234/oz silver. It was also an exercise in getting in the ballpark. We averaged out
expected yearly production into two main periods, used blanket assumptions for years 1 to 5,
then year 6 onward, plain guessed at the amount of oxide production and made educated
guesses for key inputs such as head grades, recoveries and on-site costs. You get to read that
first, because it will be natural for the reader of this report to look at what’s to come, then look
back at IKN648 and say “Hmm, that’s different”, “That approach has changed” or even “Mark’s
trying to make it look good here!”. I can guarantee it’s none of the sort, Quite the contrary in
fact, as aside from the price inputs for silver and the other metals I’ve been trying all week to
dampen down the price target you’ll see at the end of this section. Believe me on one thing, if I
wanted to get really pumpy you’d see a very high number at the of this note.
As for inputs, as DSV has given us a detailed and “serious PEA” in News Release form NR it’s
only right to use the figures supplied by DSV and its 43-101 third-party compilers. Therefore,
you’re not going to get a long list of house assumptions as per normal at this stage of a IKN
Weekly anal ysis, instead we refer you to the information as seen in Tuesday’s NR. That said,
my assumption and model has tweaked a few items and usually to the conservative side, but
essentially what you see is from the figures we got from DSV last week. However, there are
clear differences to IKN648, e.g. the 7m tonnes per year of oxide heap leach production is only
5m tonnes, but if you play the comparison game to IKN648 bear in mind this edition
supersedes and, while I’m happy to have published the “reasonable ballpark” before the
Cordero PEA dropped, from now on IKN654 is the one that matters for DSV economics. Let’s
start with a visual to show how much the early year production schedule has changed:
U$m DSV at Cordero: Revenues mix for first years
1100
Ag revs (U$m)
1000
Pb revs (U$m)
900
Zn revs (U$m)
800
Au revs (U$m)
700
600
500
400
300
200
9 100
0
Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6 Y7 Y8
source: DSV data, IKN calcs

First up, DSV can call that first year of oxides-only production whatever it wants; “Year -1” or
“Year 0”, I don’t care. You get the real world in my chart but that’s ultimately a minor point, the
rest of the above visual shows what blew me out the water about Cordero’s PEA, i.e. the ramp
of revenue return in the early years of production. The combination of oxide heap leaching
(then run-of-mine for three more years) plus the commissioning and ramping of the sulphides
mine plan while benefiting from the higher-grading material near-surface at Cordero provides a
triple whammy that turns Cordero’s economics into “The Starter Pit From Heaven”. The
eventual miners of this deposit won’t be able to reproduce the revenues and margins in Y4 and
Y5 of the house model, but I’m quite sure they won’t care because they get to pay back all
capex quickly.
This next chart takes the component revenues parts, adds them into gross revenues and
assumes a 15% TC/RC headwind to give top line annual revenues:
DSV at Cordero: Gross revs and net sales, per year
10
8.531 4.511
2.635 8.554 6.266 2.365
3.019
7.377
4.209
0.767 0.337 0.326 5.596 1.195 5.596 1.195
U$m
1000
900
Gross revs (U$m)
800
Net sales (U$m)
700
600
500
400 300
200
100
0
Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6 Y7 Y8
source: IKN calcs from DSV data
Financiers of whatever type, be they external bankers lending DSV money (unlikely) or internal
desks approving budgets at First Majestic, Pan American Silver etc (more likely), will happily
write cheques for Cordero because, even for a half billion dollar commitment, they get their
principle back and then profit quickly. Here are some numbers to put flesh on the above charts:
DSV at Cordero: Model revenues for first years
production year Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6 Y7 Y8
gold (koz) 0 3,357 4,167 6,251 8,334 8,334 8,334 8,334
U$/oz 1,700 1,700 1,700 1,700 1,700 1,700 1,700 1,700
Au revs (U$m) 5.2 11.0 12.3 15.9 19.1 18.5 14.2 14.2
zinc (Mlb) 0 100 104 156 208 224 224 224
U$/lb 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.20
Zn revs (U$m) 0.0 120.0 124.7 187.0 249.3 268.8 268.8 268.8
lead (mln lbs) 0 85 143 195 167 124 124 124
U$/lb 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.10
Pb revs (U$m) 0.0 93.7 157.1 214.5 184.0 136.5 136.5 136.5
silver Moz 0.00 9.04 11.59 16.57 17.02 11.04 11.04 11.04
U$/oz 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0
Ag revs (U$m) 130.5 311.6 368.4 492.9 449.9 309.2 276.0 276.0
Gross revs (U$m) 135.8 536.2 662.6 910.3 902.4 733.0 695.5 695.5
TC/RC (20.4) (80.4) (99.4) (136.5) (135.4) (109.9) (104.3) (104.3)
Net sales (U$m) 115.4 455.8 563.2 773.7 767.0 623.0 591.1 591.1
Sources: DSV data, IKN calcs and ests

At this point please note I use U$25/oz silver for the model, rather than the U$22/oz base case
in DSV’s PEA BNR of last week (or U$24/oz in IKN648). While I fully agree that U$22/oz is the
right number for the company to use at this point (in fact they got the PEA NR pitch-perfect),
the simple reason for using U$25/oz silver is that there’s no reason to assume
otherwise. Back in IKN649 dated October 31st in the intro note “Real World on Silver”, your
author laid out the case for a gradual rise in silver prices in the years ahead and, trading range
fluctuations aside (the current range being roughly U$22/oz to U$25/oz) that argument stands
today. The other metals use reasonable lowball prices and FWIW, the minor gold revenues
presumed before are even lower compared now; in the previous model I presumed too much
gold production would be payable, that’s not the case and in fact, the nature of Cordero means
most gold ends in tails. So be it and no worries, this is a silver mine, period.
In its NR last week, DSV claims full capital payback in two years and while that again depends
on exactly where you place Year Zero, it’s difficult to argue past those first five years:
DSV at Cordero: Condensed income statement (U$m)
case Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6 Y7 Y8
Sales (U$m) 115.4 455.8 563.2 773.7 767.0 623.0 591.1 591.1
Cash COGS 0.0 87.0 93.6 140.4 180.0 180.0 180.0 180.0
Depreciation 4.0 15.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0
G&A 5.0 9.3 9.0 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6
fin. Costs 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0
royalty 0.6 2.3 2.8 3.9 3.8 3.1 3.0 3.0
Op income 55.8 292.2 383.8 546.8 500.6 357.3 325.6 325.6
Exploration 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0
Worker profit share 4.1 23.1 30.4 43.4 39.7 28.3 25.7 25.7
Tax 11.9 66.3 87.4 124.9 114.2 81.3 74.0 74.0
Net income 35.8 198.9 262.1 374.6 342.6 243.8 221.9 221.9
Shares out (m) 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400
EPS 0.09 0.50 0.66 0.94 0.86 0.61 0.55 0.55
Capex 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
FCF 0.12 0.56 0.74 1.02 0.94 0.69 0.64 0.64
Sources: DSV data, IKN estimates
Please note a couple of key assumptions in the above chart:
 I have front-loaded depreciation to be as conservative as possible without being
laughed at by CEO Taj Singh and his CFO.
 The financial costs of U$50m a year is a wholly artificial assumption, again designed to
build conservatism into the model. As the likely exit is being bought out by a larger
company, I see no reason to build a model around the normal 50/50 or 70/30 debt
equity assumptions used by near-default in other places.
 Check out the profit-sharing line; this would become a very popular mine at which to
work.
Which brings us to the target price box:
Sales & earnings model year Target price & valuation data for DSV (C$) based on
Year Y1 Y3 Y5 Y6+ based on Year Three model economics
Sales (U$m) 115.4 563.2 767.0 623.0 24-month target $5.03 based on 0.8x 8x Y3
Upside to target 189% EPS at U$25/oz Ag
EPS 0.09 0.66 0.86 0.61 Mkt cap (C$m) $668 Enterprise value $595
FCF 0.12 0.74 0.94 0.69 P/sales (Y1) 1.19 EV/sales (Y1) 1.06
P/E (Y1) 19.5 EV/EBITDA (Y1) 9.9
P/E (Y3) 2.7 EV/EBITDA (Y3) 1.9
P/E (Y5) 2.0 EV/EBITDA (Y5) 1.7
11

First and foremost, THAT TARGET COULD HAVE BEEN A LOT HIGHER and the sharp-eyed
among you will have noticed an “0.8X” adjustment in the target justification. I’m doing that
simply because I am now convinced DSV will be bought by a third party (and would bet on First
Majestic, this is tailor-made for that company and appearing at the right time) ansd as such,
assume the sale goes through at 0.8X the true value price, rather than 1X. Today’s is a
considered financial analysis but it’s based firmly on operations, not asset value. Our pitch is on
the cash flow we expect from the third year of production, that time when Cordero is beyond
just the oxide revenues and building toward the peak revenues years before the mine matures.
It’s not a NPV-based target but if it were it would be similar because according to last week’s
PEA because at U$22/oz +15%, NPV is U$1.692Bn. That’s C$2.03Bn at the house forex of 0.8/1
and when divided into 400m shares gives C$5.08.
However, I’m also a little sheepish about aiming you towards a 189% winner. The fact is, I do
not like pitching as high as this on a considered price target after trying hard to keep things
conservative and, while it’s slightly lower than the C$5.54 of IKN648, for my taste it’s a little too
close to the type of sequin-throwing I abhor about the junior mining sector and its promoters.
However, I cannot in all consciousness offer a lower price target today because calling this one
in baby-step stages (e.g. the way I continue to approach Top Pick Rio2 Ktd (RIO.v) and Top
Pick Minera Alamos (MAI.v) does a disservice to a company and project that will deliver a PFS in
two quarters’ time (three tops). At that point
it will be in-play as the next mine in for First
Majestic, the obvious buyer for many reasons
(start with Keith Neumeyers new BFF, Eric
Sprott), or other. Big mine projects do not
come more obvious than this one and if it
were gold junior, it would be a Top Pick, be
in no doubt. But even based on fickle silver,
this trade is as close to a no-brainer as they
get in this game so buy some, add some,
own some and hold some Discovery Silver
(DSV.v) through 2022, you’ll be glad you did.
Stocks to Follow
Also mentioned in today’s intro, I will haunt myself here as well by showing you the first
sentence of last week’s “Stocks to Follow” section: “The good news is that we’re going to see a
lot of green ink next week.” Ugh and double ugh, I should know better than that at my age,
frankly. Throw brickbats in mails, unsubscribe to this service, do as you see fit, you’ll get no
pushback from this end.
So to the count, which is horrible; the week saw just one winner (GBR.v), no stock left
unchanged and 14 losers. Of those, a little gallows humour allows me to report “just” three
double figure percentage losers in Mene Inc (MENE.v down 18.6%), top pick Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v
down 11.9%) and QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v), which continues to get beaten up at market
despite its impressive MRE of just a few short weeks ago. That’s not the end of the pain either,
as there were other painful losers such Argonaut Gold (AR.to down 8.1%) that couldn’t hold the
recent breakout level. So much for my technical analyst abilities.
We currently have at 15 open positions, our self-imposed maximum of stocks held and covered
at any given time. Just four are in the green and I felt sick when seeing that on Friday.
12

company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.53 152.4% $1.14 tgt Aug'20, #1 idea
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v STR BUY C$0.83 22-Apr-18 C$0.59 -28.9% $1.30 1st tgt, building now
Recommended stocks (In order of preference)
Copper Mountain CMMC.to STR BUY C$3.42 18-Jun-21 C$3.44 0.6% Top value Cu play, overweight
Argonaut Gold AR.to STR BUY C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$3.27 10.8% Magino's upside,testing brkout
Discovery Silver DSV.v STR BUY C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.74 -1.7% Serious Ag play, big&cheap
Trilogy Metals TMQ BUY U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.60 -13.0% Cu for 2021, stalled
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v STR BUY C$0.26 25-Apr-21 C$0.255 -1.9% Now drilling. Easy hold
Palamina Corp PA.v STR BUY C$0.295 21-Nov-21 C$0.27 -8.5% New, gold expl in S.Peru
Strategic Metals SMD.v BUY C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.325 -22.6% Canadian land bet, recovering
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v SPEC BUY C$0.68 16-May-21 C$0.60 -11.8% Waiting on drill assays
Altiplano Metals APN.v BUY C$0.31 17-Sep-21 C$0.24 -22.6% Cheap entry, 1q22 re-rate
Great Bear Res GBR.v BUY C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$20.86 31.8% Barrick is suitor, M&A play
Aurelius Min. AUL.v hold C$0.75 28-Jun-20 C$0.28 -62.7% has until 43-101 to improve
Minera IRL MIRL.cse hold C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.08 -59.0% CEO change will move stock
Long-term non-mining hold
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.67 6-Dec-20 C$0.57 -14.9% LT bet, adding slowly
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Sep-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
CartierResources ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v noiv'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
2015 to 2020 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on a few of our covered stocks but, as the macro tide for metals and stocks was
last week’s big factor, not so much this weekend:
Palamina Corp (PA.v): ADDED. During a week in which illogical selling ruled, the only logical
thing to do was buy a little of something so I made good on the vague statement last week to
“add in the weeks to come” to the starter position and a modest add got my cost average in
Palamina down to under 30c. CEO Thomson isn’t stupid and isn’t going to blow any strategic
advantage in announcing first drill results form Usicayos (ex-Coasa) in this rotten market, so
having to wait for the third drill hole from its initial program has probably turned out to be an
advantage. However, fiduciary duty takes over at some point and we should expect a NR from
PA.v on the drill numbers before Christmas, rather than after it.
In other news, the small PA spin-off company Winshear (WINS.v) announced the closure of its
$750k placement in good order and PA participated, thereby keeping its 19.99% position in the
company.
Mene Inc (MENE.v): ADDED. I thought I was pretty smart about adding a small tranche at
13

63c on Thursday, right up until the moment MENE closed at 57c on Friday. Different from our
other open positions, MENE dropped hard on Thursday and Friday during the tech-sales
platform rout, rather than for any gold or platinum reasons. We have a month or so to go
before we get preliminary 4q21 sales numbers, if the low price continue –I may add again.
Always small and modest additions here.
Minera Alamos (MAI.v): Our Top Pick MAI managed to lose a penny on the week, which was
relatively good compared to other stocks but is still rather silly, compared to what MAI has and
what it’s about to announce to the market in 1q21. With commercial production, MAI unlocks
the door for larger instos to buy and if I were a metals specialist running a desk with eight
figures to deploy, I’d be amazed at the Christmas present Mr. Market has served up for me this
December 2021. Yes, I am annoying bullish on my Top Pick and largest position, no apologies
either.
Trilogy Metals (TMQ): The chart we used last week is, unfortunately, still valid for today and
with the upper range of support broken at U$1.76, suggests we’re going to see U$1.50 again
before TMQ finds a place from which to bounce higher. Here’s a very similar chart to last
week’s, merely updated to include the last five trading days:
At least we mentioned last weekend that, “We may see the U$1.50 level again this time, we
may not..” but then over-egged the pudding by adding “…but this weekend’s U$1.75 is the right
place to by for a rebound trade.” That second part was me speaking too soon, but at least no
further technical damage was done. Holding easily enough, TMQ dances to its own beat and
South32 is still going to buy it out.
Argonaut Gold (AR.to): So much for that breakout:
The $3.50 line failed and while it tried to hold on, when the break was confirmed the real drop
followed. Please note today’s ‘Market Watching’ section as tomorrow Monday, AR is one of the
hour-long presenters at the VID V /Laurentian Bank gig.
14

QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v): The beatings will continue until morale improves. Be it tax loss
selling, warrant clipping, FUD-induced fear or just this crazy December, I did not expect to see
QCCU back down in the red on this list. To the positive, let’s recall the company has raised all
the working cap it requires and is doing what it must do with the money. I am still 100% “Drill
Baby Drill, Burn Baby Burn” about this company and the truth machine plus the reality of the
reasonable footprint its open pit will have on Chapais is why I am long and strong.
Great Bear Resources (GBR.v): The only winner of last week gets the final notelet this week
and for one reason only; it was the only winner of the week. Circular arguments done, we move
to copper thoughts and leave GBR to the day Barrick decides to pull the trigger.
The Copper Basket
After forty-eight weeks of 2021, The Copper Basket shows a gain of 18.16% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/21 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Solaris Res SLS.to 6.08 107.53 1376.38 12.80 110.5%
2 Copper Mtn CMMC.to 1.81 207.5 713.80 3.44 90.1%
3 Oroco Res OCO.v 1.85 192.584 481.46 2.50 34.6%
4 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.25 87.737 300.94 3.43 5.5%
5 Amerigo Res ARG.to 0.80 181.79 236.33 1.30 62.5%
6 Western Copper WRN.to 1.57 135.798 226.78 1.67 6.4%
7 Excelsior Min. MIN.to 1.12 273.585 105.33 0.385 -65.6%
8 Regulus Res. REG.v 1.07 101.85 91.67 0.90 -15.9%
9 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.455 125.24 75.14 0.60 31.9%
10 C3 Metals CCCM.v 0.115 438.56 74.56 0.17 47.8%
11 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.45 68.281 39.60 0.58 28.9%
12 Doré Copper DCMC.v 1.00 53.304 37.85 0.71 -29.0%
13 Chakana Cop PERU.v 0.60 111.41 32.87 0.295 -50.8%
14 Chibougamau CBG.v 0.165 53.077 12.21 0.23 39.4%
15 US Copper USCU.v 0.105 87.53 7.00 0.08 -23.8%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg 18.16%
(One of those weeks where your author puts on the brave face and starts with) It wasn’t all bad for The Copper
Basket list . As three winners from the 15 (ARG.to, ECU.v, CBG.v) helped a little, but there
was no way of escaping from the liquidity
suck out of the junior world and the other 60% The Copper Basket 2021, weekly evolution
55%
12 stocks were all losers. The biggest 50%
percentage hits were taken by the tiny and 45%
40%
beaten down US Copper (USCU.v down
35%
20.0%), our silent friends at Regulus 30%
25%
(REG.v down 14.3%), the always-volatile
20%
Doré Copper (DCMC.v down 11.3%) and 15%
10%
the Peru sizzler C3Metals (CCCM.v down
5%
10.5%). 0%
The stocks took more of a cue from the
general exodus and Risk Off attitude of the
equity market than from their underlying metal. Yes, copper prices did drop and midweek the
spike down to U$4.20/lb (on the most widely traded futures contract for March’22m HGH22 as
seen here) helped scatter the stocks, but that level held once again. Big chart, below:
15
ts1
naJ
t01naJ ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7bef ht41 ts12 ht82 ht7ram ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4rpa ht11 ht81 ht52 n2yam ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6nuj ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4luj ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1gua ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5pes ht21 ht91 ht62 dr3tco ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7von ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5ced
source: IKN calcs

Your curated comment this week is the Reuters weekly wrap-up out Friday evening Americas
time, as it gets several relevant points in just a few lines, as well as somebody who sees a
bullish future for Dr. Copper (and other metals, so why not give the house position a little
outside backing) (4):
Markets were also on edge due to the Omicron variant of coronavirus, with countries
introducing new restrictions to slow its spread, which could potentially derail the global
economic recovery.
"Copper and other base metals are holding up well despite the bearish news like the
new variant, China slowdown and potential tightening by the Federal Reserve," said
Gianclaudio Torlizzi, partner at consultancy T-Commodity in Milan.
He said he was advising clients to hedge and gain long exposure to the industrial
metals complex.
Thank you, John-Claude. As for the rest, it’s part of the over-reaching narrative for Omicron we
cover in today’s intro (and last week’s for that matter). Moving on, it’s another month end (plus
a couple of days) and here’s the long-term copper inventory tracking charts, bearing clear
witness to the lack of copper available around the world. If you though last year’s Covid-19
driven low was bad, this one will go down the in annals as the year in which buyers scrambled
to secure stock for their factories by year-end.
Key Cu inventory aggregate, 2012 to date
1000000
900000
800000
700000
600000
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
16
21.naJ ram yam luj pes von 31.naJ ram yam luj pes von 41.naj ram yam luj pes von 51.naj ram yam luj pes von 61.naj ram yam luj pes von 71.naj ram yam luj pes von 81
naj
ram yam luj pes von 91
naj
ram yam luj pes von 02
naj
ram yam luj pes von 12
naj
ram yam luj pes von
Mt Cu
Comex
Shanghai
LME
source: Cochilco
The percentage breakdown chart is now sending a weird signal. Despite Comex stocks hardly
moving in absolute size, the eye-popping drawdowns in both LME ands SHFE stocks now mean
the small and ultimately unimportant Cu inventories held mostly in The USA, mostly in
warehouses in New Orleans and Los Angeles, accounts for a full 32.55% of the official world
count this weekend.

Copper inventories: percentage held per exchange
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
17
21.naJ ram yam luj pes von 31.naJ ram yam luj pes von 41.naj ram yam luj pes von 51.naj ram yam luj pes von 61.naj ram yam luj pes von 71.naj ram yam luj pes von 81
naj
ram yam luj pes von 91
naj
ram yam luj pes von 02
naj
ram yam luj pes von 12
naj
ram yam luj pes von
LME Shanghai Comex source: Cochilco
Monthly charts duly updated, we move to our regular weekly segment:
 World copper stocks reverted to drawdowns, with another 11,504 metric tonnes (mt)
lost to the real world from the three official systems. Friday’s close was marked at
167,685mt, another modern-day record low.
 Inventory at the Shanghai SHFE dropped by 5,752mt, finishing at 36,110mt and see the
dedicated chart below for a couple of extra lines on that. The story hasn’t changed and
as my stepfather would say, it’s tighter than a gnat’s chuff. We await re-stocking in the
New Year and hope for Chinese factories’ sake that it happens.
 The LME continued its own downward trend, another 5,540mt leaving its inventories
system last week to leave Friday’s total at 78,350mt. However the bottom is nigh, as
cancelled warrants dropped even further and this weekend stand at just 8,075mt. It
doesn’t really matter if those are real deal contracts from end-users or paper trades and
market headfakery, there’s not much left to change things and all it takes now is a
single influx to make a difference.
 Comex stocks moved modestly once again, this time down 302 metric tonnes to close
at 53,225mt. No biggie.
Here’s the Shanghai-only inventories chart, down 5k on the week but the only real dynamic of
November and early December is watching the number bounce around at this quasi-zero
bottom. There’s no stock in SHFE, period.
Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2014 to date
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
31'13ceD ht9 ht81 ht72 ht5tco ht41 dn22 dr3yam ht21 ht02 ht92 ht7bef ht71 ht62 ht4peS ht31 ht92 ht9 ht81 ht72 ht5von ht41 ht52 ht01 ht91 ht82 ht6naJ ht71 ht62 ht4gua ht31 dn22 202ts1ram ht01 ht91 ht72 0202ht6ced ht41 ht52 1202ht4luj ht21 ts12
Mt Cu
|
source: Cochilco
Now for notes on a couple of our basket stocks:
Amerigo Resources (ARG.to): In and among last week’s seemingly incessant negative
market newsflow, ARG received a real fillip for its operations and as a result, its price action

deservedly bucked the trend. The news came out Wednesday did the rounds in Chile on
Thursday morning, was picked up by a few English bizwires later and here’s Chile’s Diario
Financiero’s take (5) (translated):
Codelco Assures It Has Water Guaranteed for Next Year's Production
While taking into account the relevance of water resources during the drought facing
the country, the president of the board of directors of Codelco, Juan Benavides,
yesterday stated that the State-run mining company has the water supply it needs
guaranteed for normal operations in 2022, principally in its El Teniente and Andina
divisions. "The studies are done; they guarantee that the water (we have) we be
enough", stated the director.
Seeing El Teniente mentioned specifically is wholly good news for ARG, as it depends on that
mine and the water in the zone for normal operations. Here’s a price chart with a nice rally on
Friday, though admittedly volume was somewhat thin.
FWIW I sent that DF link above to a loyal ARG long the same day, he replied with more food for
thought and just for fun, let’s quote Reader A” verbatim:
“Thanks Mark and at 838 pesos to the dollar and $21 MOLY ARG should be minting
money in 2022.”
That’s true as well. For sure ARG needs to get its moly production back up to full speed, but the
forex in Chile (and in most of South America for that matter) is certainly a useful offset to the
inflationary effects on supplies. Overall ARG seems to have got over its run of bad management
(Rob Henderson’s disastrous tenure has been superseded by Aurora Davidson’s increasingly
impressive display as CEO*, a fact underscored by ARG’s NR last week, confirming its intention
first floated in September run a share buyback (6), as well as to start a dividend payment
program (7). Here’s the pay dirt from last week’s NR:
Under the NCIB Amerigo may purchase up to 10,750,000 common shares
(representing 6.14% of its 174,936,288 common shares outstanding as at November
29, 2021) over a period of twelve months commencing on December 2, 2021. The
NCIB will terminate no later than December 1, 2022.
“Amerigo’s Board of Directors believes that the purchase of common shares of the
Company continues to represent a highly accretive use of capital,” said Aurora
Davidson, Amerigo’s President and CEO. “We are pleased to have this normal course
issuer bid now in place, having recently completed a substantial issuer bid where
Amerigo retired more than 7.1 million common shares.”
You don’t need my permission to buy this stock, but my reticence has been on record in 2021
due mostly to the potential water supply issues. With those now a minor factor and the
company being run well and to the clear benefit of shareholders, this is beginning to shape up
as a real winner and I may be stupid for not owning already. If you see my calling “buy” and
adding Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) to the ‘Stocks to Follow’ list in 2021, do not be surprised.
*And yes! It is good to see women at the top and out-performing men, I’m glad you agree!
18

Solaris Resources (SLS.to): The drops weren’t big, a weekly 0.9% two weeks ago and 2.7%
this week, but if memory serves it’s the first time in 2021 SLS has lost ground two weeks
running and that’s worthy of reporting for this near-autopilot stock. Trade patterns are as
artificial as ever, though. Please be clear that SLS will not form part of the 2022 Copper Basket
due to the size of its market cap, it’s too big for us these days.
Chakana Copper (PERU.v): Every year a lot is made of the Tax Loss Selling season in
Canadian stocks and much blame is laid at the feet of illogical sellers who’ll take any price in
order to offset capital gains. But even though Chakana (PERU.v) is a prime candidate in theory,
down over 50% in 2021 YTD as it is, this chart…
…just looks like minor sellers dumping into a stock with no serious bids. With a maiden resource
(MRE) for Soledad due soon it doesn’t augur well, neither does the guided 10m tonnes at 2%
copper (cannot see a mine there) though with those numbers, chances are that PERU.v beats
its own low barrier to entry, no matter if it doesn’t hold up to subsequent PEA/PFS analysis. I’ve
already learned the hard way to trust this company less than the distance is can be thrown.
The Producer Basket
After forty-eight weeks of 2021, the Producer Basket shows a loss of 15.88% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/20 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 59.89 805 44.01 54.67 -8.7%
2 Barrick GOLD 22.78 1778.04 32.40 18.22 -20.0%
3 Agnico Eagle AEM 70.51 244.187 11.83 48.46 -31.3%
4 Kirkland Lake KL 41.27 267.056 10.25 38.38 -7.0%
5 Kinross Gold KGC 7.34 1261.07 7.36 5.84 -20.4%
6 Endeavour Min EDV.to 29.62 252.568 5.99 28.48 -3.8%
7 Pan American PAAS 34.71 210.262 4.99 23.71 -31.7%
8 B2Gold BTG 5.60 1051.697 3.90 3.71 -33.8%
9 Alamos Gold AGI 8.75 392.739 2.87 7.32 -16.3%
10 Pretium Res PVG 11.48 187.833 2.46 13.12 14.3%
Prices in U$ except EDV.to (share price in CAD$ and mkt cap in approx USD) Port. avg -15.88%
Carnage in the bigcaps last week as institutions rushed for the exit door and pushed GDX down
4.45% and GDXJ down 5.43% on the week. Our list of ten stocks, equally-weighted and with
plenty of smaller names involved, lost out to the GDX benchmark and that means we’re once
again in “second winning position out of two” by around one percentage point. As for the
stocks, NEM was definitely “least worst” with its 3.3% drop, then PVG “only” lost 6.5%. The
rest was true carnage, the other seven losing at least 10% and at the tail, B2Gold (BTG down
15.9%) perhaps regretting even talking about moving into Zimbabwe now.
19

All that and GLD dropped just 0.13% on the week. Once again, why put you money into these
mining stocks and expose yourself to the vagaries of the human beings running these
companies when you can sleep easy with bullion in your portfolio?
The 2021 Producer Basket: Percentage difference between
GDX benchmark and basket (negative = IKN basket ahead)
8.0%
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
Newmont (NEM): Instead of going deeply into the reasons why Newmont’s 2022 Production
guidance Conference Call on Thursday was impressive, I want to show you how Bloomberg has
turned into an unreliable company that cares more about getting your eyeballs than conveying
factual information. Let’s begin with this, a ten-day chart that shows NEM hasn’t been
performing better than peers recently, but head and shoulders above in relative strength terms.
Now let’s pan out and consider the two-year dailies chart, comparing NEM to GDX and its two
main Tier 1 rivals, Barrick (GOLD) and Agnico (AEM):
Since Covid-19 became part of our lives, NEM hasn’t just been the better Tier 1 mining stock to
own, but by far the better. This two year chart shows NEM up 40%, Agnico down 20% and a
Barrick that has under-performed even the GDX, rising just 10%. What’s more, note how
Bristow’s higher-profile company tried its best to match NEM blow-for-blow in 2020, but come
20
ts1
naJ
t01naJ ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7bef ht41 ts12 ht82 ht7ram ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4rpa ht11 ht81 ht52 n2yam ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6nuj ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4luj ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1gua ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5pes ht21 ht91 ht62 dr3tcO ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7voN ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5ceD
The 2021 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
20%
comparative to GDX control
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%
source: IKN calcs, NYSE/Nasdaq/TSX data
ts1
naJ
t01naJ ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7bef ht41 ts12 ht82 ht7ram ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4rpa ht11 ht81 ht52 n2yam ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6nuj ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4luj ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1gua ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5pes ht21 ht91 ht62 dr3tcO ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7voN ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5ceD
ikn
gdx control source: Google, IKN Calcs

November just couldn’t stand the pace. NEM has quietly turned into the best-run gold producer
in the world (Franco-Nevada not actually doing the producing itself), testament to its star assets
such as Boddington of course, but also the way it is run at a corporate level and last week’s
guidance CC rammed that home (8). The reason NEM isn’t out there trying to buy Kirkland Lake
or some other overly expensive target is that it doesn’t need to, its growth pipeline is fully
stocked and in the next 2.5 years plans to spend a record amount of cash on its own assets,
not those of other people. So the mere coincidence that NEM ran its CC on the day gold stocks
of all sizes sagged seems to have been lot on this Bloomie reporter, as this headline shows:
I almost laughed out loud, “when it bleeds it leads” and more proof that eye-catching headlines
matter more to Bloomberg than decent reporting. It needs to stop hiring people who literally do
not know what they are talking about. As for the 6.2m oz gold pledged by NEM in 2022 at an
AISC that leaves plenty of investment firepower, it’s another object lesson in how to run a
mining company. That alone is something its peers would do well to study so keep your media
stars like Bristow, back the lower key Palmer instead. And back Reuters over Bloomie, a
company that isn’t trying to clickbait you and prefers to report what matters (9):
“The world's top gold producer forecast output of 6.2 million ounces for next year, up
from the 6 million ounces it expects to produce in 2021. Total gold output combined
with other metals is estimated to be 7.5 million gold equivalent ounces in 2022.”
Also…
“Its shares were down 1.7%, tracking weaker gold prices.”
Long Reuters, short Bloomie. We move on.
The Tiny Dogs
After forty-eight weeks of 2021, the Tiny Dogs show a gain of 10.58% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/21 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Antler Gold ANTL.v 0.205 66.365 14.60 0.22 7.3%
Aston Bay BAY.v 0.045 163.975 9.84 0.06 33.3%
Constantine Met CEM.v 0.17 45.4 23.15 0.51 200.0%
Contact Gold C.v 0.115 240.757 12.04 0.05 -56.5%
Golden Pursuit GDP.v 0.22 40 6.00 0.150 -31.8%
Manitou Gold MTU.v 0.045 230.79 12.69 0.06 22.2%
Precipitate Gold PRG.v 0.240 106.241 9.56 0.09 -62.5%
QC Copper QCCU.v 0.315 105 26.78 0.255 -19.0%
Red Pine Expl RPX.v 0.400 95.806 51.74 0.54 35.0%
Warrior Gold WAR.v 0.090 91.818 6.43 0.07 -22.2%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 10.58%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $20m. They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a
little and allowed sub-U$20m market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, but it was a particularly depressing exercise to trawl through the whole of the TSXV and find companies
21

that are small enough, but with life in them. The vast majority of sub-$20m stocks are broken stocks, either
traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2020. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
The worst of last week’s headwind blew high over 24% Tiny Dogs, 2021 weekly tracker
the heads of our Tiny Dogs list, with five UNCH 20%
16%
stocks the main headline. Then four stocks were
12%
lower and just one higher, so a cheer for Golden
8%
Pursuit as it bounces around its wide trading
4%
range.
0%
-4%
That’s all this week, difficult to muster interest in -8%
these stocks or have something cogent to say, it’s -12%
all about tax loss selling and a weird market.
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of
recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future
I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet aretrictly neutral.
Regional politics
Ecuador’s Constitutional Court ruling
The first paragraph is op-ed, we move to the facts of the matter below. Let us begin by stating
that not all companies in Ecuador are bad actors, but Cornerstone Capital Resources (CGP.v)
has been one for many years and should be ashamed of itself for the way he has gone about its
business, ignoring the will of entire cultures and communities and playing legal hardball with
communities, instead of engaging them meaningfully. This isn’t a recent turn of events either,
CGPv has been said bad actor for approaching two decades and its policies and corporate
attitude have brought us to last week’s ruling and to be clear, the above sentiment applies
equally to Warren Irwin of Rosseau Asset Management, long-term backer and vociferous
proponent of CGP who should hang his head in shame. But now, with the comeuppance the
company received last week at the hands of Ecuador’s Constitutional Court (CC) by seven votes
in favour (nine seats total), its path of litigation comes to a halt, aside from appeal letters its
lawyers have already submitted to the same body that are highly unlikely to gain traction.
What’s more, CGP has now opened a clear flank of legal weakness for the entire mining sector
in Ecuador, providing anti-mine groups and entities with a strong legal precedent to push back
against mining projects up and down the country. Cornerstone may go down in infamy as the
company that ruined it for everyone.
With the news the CC has banned all activity at the Rio Magdalena project, CGP.v quickly tried
to downplay the ruling in this punctual NR (10), telling the world they were not active in the
zone and giving us “a few facts”, i.e. a five point list of how wonderful they have been that
includes how its CESA subsidiary and JV partner ENAMI (the State-run mining company)
“…have the strong support of the local communities.” I will make no further op-ed comment on
that, instead merely direct your attention to paragraph one of this note.
This report from Ecuador’’s daily newspaper Primicias (11) was better than most on the issue
last week, with its visual copy-pasted here showing the overlap of protected
jungle/forest/woodland [sidebar: The Spanish word “bosque” can cover all three English words and
“jungle” is not necessarily “selva”, for linguists out there] and that is where the legal issues arise:
22
ts1
naJ
t01naJ ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7bef ht41 ts12 ht82 ht7ram ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4rpa ht11 ht81 ht52 n2yam ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6nuj ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4luj ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1gua ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5pes ht21 ht91 ht62 dr3tcO ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7voN ht41 ts12 ht82 ht5ced
source: IKN calcs, TSX data

From here on, we will use the term “protected forest” for the sake of brevity. The country’s
Constitution allows for not just human rights, but “rights of nature”, i.e. the country must treat
“nature” as an entity with legal rights and that formed part of last weeks 119 page ruling that
came to five key rulings:
 It upheld the ruling against the mining companies made by a lower court in June 2020
 The “rights of nature” of the Los Cedros protected forest had been breached
 The rights to water and a healthy environment of local communities had been breached
 The right of locals to consultancy about decisions that affect their local community had
been breached
 The environmental registry and permits received by the mining companies we made
null and void
The court also outlined reparations that the mining companies must make and ordered them
out of the area, effective immediately. If you only read the CGP news release on the subject
you may come away with the impression that it was no big deal, in fact it’s quite the opposite;
the ruling handed down could hardly have been any worse for the company and for mining in
Ecuador in general. The same Primicias note linked above went on to quote a regional
coordinator of Ecuador’s Ministry of Energy and Mining, who kept his comments limited to the
areas around the Rio Magdalena project zone and the precedent that had just been set by the
highest court in the land, but still couldn’t avoid the term “domino effect” from being used as
the sub-header of the section. We quote (translated):
Domino Effect
The coordinator for the northern zone of the Ministry of Energy, Mauricio Almeida,
warned that the Constitutional Court decision could have a domino effect. “The people
could demand a protection order against the mining company in the Cerro Golondrinas
protected forest, justifying that the court stopped extractive activity in Los Cedros”, said
Almeida.
And if you think Ecuador’s anti-miners, which include CONAIE and its party political arm
Pachakutik with its large voting bloc in Congress, will stop at the near neighbours then think
again quick. Let us not forget that Ecuador’s environmental and anti-mining lobby is no bunch
of disorganized tree-hugger types. We’ve already seen how the now national political figure
Yaku Pérez has stopped development in the South of the country in his native Cuenca region
and not just by putting up roadblocks. He studied to become a lawyer and then took the mining
companies to court and through the system, with legal rulings to halt the Rio Blanco (Chinese
capitals) mine and suspend development at Loma Larga (ex-INV Metals). Be in no doubt, the
anti-mining lobby is cock-a-hoop about last week’s ruling and know what it means, plus how
theyt will be able to use it against other projects in different regions of Ecuador. Therefore, let’s
start with some practical advice:
23

1) If you are exposed to Ecuador via a company with an exploration or development stage
project, get your maps out and check whether its concessions overlap with “protected
forest” because if they do, that project (and therefore your investment) is in trouble.
2) If yours is free from “protected forest”, think on the image that gets cast in future
Ecuador as concession after concession in the country is reverted, nullified and the
mining company working it is sent packing.
For what it’s worth, in practical terms this ruling is unlikely to affect mining operations already
up and running, e.g. Lundin Gold (LUG.to) at Fruta del Norte, simply because the environmental
lobby isn’t stupid and will choose their next targets carefully. The most vulnerable flank is local
to Los Cedros and the Rio Magdalena project, that’s where the legal precedent will begin to firm
up with petitions and orders to stop activity in the zone. After that, expect the anti-miner lobby
to expand its target zones and find exploration-stage projects sitting on top of large areas of
bosque protector, (there are a lot in Ecuador) then with a few of those permits permanently
reverted, as someone said in the comments section of the post added to the open blog last
week (12), “…a potential future legal mouse hole can become an elephant hole…”. Your author
strongly agrees and would go further, changing the word “can” to “will” and there is nothing
“potential” about all this. Welcome to Ecuador, enjoy the ride.
To close we return to op-ed, and one thing you can surely you can surely expect is the mining
world to close ranks. Companies with Ecuador exposure will belittle the ruling, consider it petty
and unrelated to their own projects. Also, expect them to hit the airwaves to call this note and
others like it as over-dramatizing reality. I have already borne witness on how the propaganda
machine feeds “sponsored coverage” regarding Ecuador and as there’s big money in-play, I
fully expect to be ridiculed for this position on the bleak future for Ecuador’s mining industry. So
be it and when it begins, you may like to push back by asking the propagandists and paid
pumpers to answer you in Spanish instead of English, as it’s strange how just that simple
question will quieten 95% of Ecuador’s mining bulls. The country, was, is and will always be the
Mini Basket Case of South America and there’s a long list of other places better suited to your
retail investment or their mining FDI. The IKN Weekly offers you two alternatives to learn those
simple facts, the easy way or the hard way. Now it’s up to you.
Argentina and Moody’s and the IMF and Mining and US Dollars
To underscore the point made regarding Argentina and its need for hard currency next year,
Tuesday saw Gabriel Torres of ratings agency Moody’s pass judgment on the country and here’s
how that note begins (13):
The risk rating agency Moody’s warned this Tuesday about the weakness of the
Argentine government behind the result of legislative elections mid-term and
considered that “even if I reached a new agreement with the IMF, the risk of not
meeting the goals set will remain high”.
That message was carried further by Torres of Moody’s, who has been covering the country
since 2007 and knows his subject backwards (14) (translated):
“The country has a dollar debt that it has to refinance with the private sector that’s
impossible to pay without access to markets. If that moment arrives and nothing has
changed, there will be a default.”
Find a longer note on the subject from one of Argentina’s top biz media Ambito Financiero, here
(15) (I used to read the deadwood version every day when living there). The subject is in
fashion in Argentina because the country 1) takes the IMF seriously, 2) likes to think of itself as
a serious financial entity (even after all these years) and 3) got news last week that its
economic team was visiting The IMF in New York to try and thrash out a deal. Bonds rallied on
that news, but Torres underscored Argentina’s sovereign debt rating (number 20 of its 21
ranks) and added reality to the new optimism.
Meanwhile and in parallel, Argentina’s Mining and Energy Secretary Alberto Hensel (so hot right
24

now) last week made his government’s point regarding mining in 2022 at the launch of new
official government publication, “Mining in Argentina: Contributions of Engineering to its
Sustainable Development” ("La minería en la Argentina, Contribuciones de la Ingeniería para su
desarrollo sostenible"), Argentina’s Chamber of Mining (CAEM) present and showing a united
front. Hensel said at the book launch, “Nothing happens without political decisions and in
Argentina, there is a political decision that mining convert into a protagonist of the social and
economic recovery of the country, something that our President Alberto Fernández has said on
many occasions.” Also, “We cannot overlook mining, fishery, or tourism or even agriculture.
(We have) a country filled with resources in which our duty is to convert those resources into
work, production, exports and to generate the finances we require.”
It doesn’t get any more obvious than that, esteemed readership of The IKN Weekly. Though
details of the government’s PEDMA mining plan are still scant (and we may have to wait until
after the traditional vacation season in Argentina, when half of Buenos Aires leaves the city for
the month of January), be in no doubt that Argentina is going to push hard for investment
dollars in 2022 for mining projects and the only way it does that is to offer rock-solid
guarantees for FDI. We have a spearhead in the Lundin family at Josemaria/Filo de Sol, expect
more projects to make headlines next year as the country hits the marketing trail. I remain long
in the frustrating Aldebaran Resources (ALDE.v) ands while my pick is a laggard, it won’t take
more than one or two result holes from Altar for new momentum to pick up around the stock.
Argentina Chubut: The pro-mining lobby makes its case (again)
In last week’s “Argentina and mining in 2022” note, we made reference to the regional PJ
(Peronist Party, i.e. the ruling party of Alberto Fernández) and its provincial conference in
Chubut this weekend. Here’s the segment from IKN653:
“…December 4th sees Chubut’s annual (and postponed) PJ party conference and in the
run-up, there’s plenty of talk about governor Mariano Arcioni looking to get party
consensus on mining, which he could then put before the provincial parliament in
order to get his yearned-for zonification law pushed through (next year will be his third
year of trying).”
This weekend saw the plan roll out, with the PJ Chubut party unveiling its (16) “Peronismo
Productivo Provincial” initiative (no need to translate that one) which groups together a range
of industrial sectors under the same banner, with mining joining more socially accepted
activities in the region such as fishery, livestock and crops farming and tourism under one
banner. The mining push is being headed by long-time pro-mining political figure Marina
Barrera, who was clever with her words when reporters and opposition to mining in her own
party criticized this latest push to get the Zonification law through Chubut’s parliament and
allow mining to happen in the central Meseta region (PAAS at Navidad, and all that).
Be clear that the national push to promote mining is going to happen in 2022, but it’s to
Argentina’s advantage to get as many provinces on-side as possible before the international-
level marketing begins. We’ve seen the pro-mining lobby fail numerous times in Chubut and this
desk makes no firm prediction about the latest attempts, except that the pro-mining lobby
which includes regional governor Arcioni will give it their best shot and the anti-mining camp
will push back hard. It almost goes without saying but let’s underscore the amount of money in-
play and that if the pro-miners are successful, it would be a big win for PAAS.
Chile: Polling and second round update
The period between the election and run-off in Chile is going largely according to expectations.
The right wing Sebastian Sichel (round one Piñera government candidate) has made his support
for the hard right wing José Antonio Kast official, though with conditions. Meanwhile, the
frontrunner lefty Gabriel Boric has consolidated his lead in the polls and even the right-biased
Cadem pollster puts him on a five-point lead this weekend (17), with voter intention split 40%
Boric and 35% Kast, while valid votes stand at 53% to 47% (pretty much in line with our
original snapshot on election evening in IKN651). One interesting wrinkle for this audience may
be that unions in the State-run Codelco have taken it on themselves to declare the Kast
25

persona non grata at the company establishments up and down the country (the Latin phrase
used more often in Spanish than in English), for example this statement out of the main
syndicate covering the Codelco Norte subdivision (18) while the candidate was visiting the city
of Calama, the communiqué explaining that (translated) “…his program does not include the
main demands of social movements, and what is more, his program is a threat to women and
equality.” So now you know.
Peru: The Presidential impeachment process continues
I’m going to keep this short and in note form, as it’s not directly related to mining (for more,
mail me if you care enough). We agree President Castillo is somewhere between naïve and
inept, yes. Dumb for meeting with allies in a private house instead of at the Presidential Palace
and breaking ethics rules, yes. Left wing and hated among the Lima elite, yes. Anmd the
Congressional debate on his impeachment is almost certainly going to happen, despite efforts
to call it off from government friends and well-meaning opposition forces (the head of Congress
is his opponent and doesn’t want the debate to go ahead, let alone the vote. So the noise will
continue and if there’s some other dramatic turn of events he may even get kicked out, but
aside the unlikely the whole show is more heat than light. The house call of last week has not
changed and the impeachment of President Castillo is sill unlikely to prosper (but my stars, the
hatred for the lefty provinciano is visceral among Lima’s chattering class).
Peru: MMG at Las Bambas plays hardball
Here’s the body of the NR from Chinese capitals MMG, owners of the Las Bambas mine in Peru,
as published to the Hong Kong stock market on Friday December 3rd (19):
In so many words, MMG has decided to suspend production at the Las Bambas mine in South
Peru mine due to “lack of key consumables” after failing to reach agreement with locals around
26

the mine on terms for road access due to “excessive commercial demands.” Opinions were
quick on the news in Peru and (grand surprise) mostly split down political and/or business lines.
In the blue corner, your example is the ubiquitous Roque Benavides of Buenaventura (BVN)
fame, who decided to expand the issue to cover the whole country (20). Among other
comments that tied in Mirtha Vasquez’s mine closure plan and Vladimir Cerrón’s leadership (in
Cajamarca, hundreds of miles away), he said (translated), “It’s an awful message for the
promotion of investments in Peru at all levels and all sectors. Our country is becoming a non-
credible State, with little transparency and serious problems”, though the way his idea of
“transparency” includes Presidents and Finance Minister taking bribes (PPK, Alejandro Toledo,
Ollanta Humala) is not mentioned. A well-known supporter of the Fujimoristas, he’d love to see
this become a factor in the impeachment debate set to happen in Congress soon and is
deliberately fanning the flames. Then in the red corner, representatives of the local community
around Las Bambas said it “was about time” this happened and they preferred to recover the
clear air they used to breathe over payments received, which should have started in 2012 but
only began in 2019. However, their next breaths used the opportunity to explain their main
beef and unlike the air they breathe (and once again in a big surprise) it’s the economy, stupid.
This article (21) from the normally right wing and pro-biz El Correo went beyond party politics
to quote locals, who explained their deals centre around the purchase and use of vehicles. In a
nutshell, the deals are that 1) locals buy either 4x4 vehicles as flag-leaders for truck convoys or
2) the trucks that carry the concentrate through the so-called “Mining Corridor”. Their complaint
is that MMG only offers them between a third and a fifth for their transport contracts compared
to other carriers and that due to the terms of the deals, it would take any local between seven
and eleven years to get their money back if they invested in a truck or 4x4.
That’s also an exaggeration, and as is often the case the truth lays somewhere in between. The
devil is in the details and it turns out that the town of Chumbivilcas has been in negotiations
with the company to get trucks with cheap loans for the companies. The town wanted 15
trucks, the company offered 10. The town considered that an insult and went with “Okay then,
we now want 50 trucks!”, to which the company said “Okay, 12 trucks!”, which was also
refused, it really is that infantile ands with the details at hand, perhaps the best commentary
came from member of Congress Carlos Anderson of the right wing Podemos Peru party, who
noted (22) the only real loser was the country of Peru and criticized both company and locals:
“It shows that the parties are failing too quickly (i.e. deliberately), instead of trying to achieve a
peaceful working atmosphere at a mining hub such with the potential of Las Bambas, all at a
time when the price of copper is through the roof.” He went on to throw well-deserved
brickbats at Peru’s government: “The executive (i.e. ministerial-level government), instead of
working as arbitrator in order to improve production, has stepped to one side. They are simply
not doing the work they should do and we end up with this type of decision in which the only
real loser is the country.” He has a point, as the only real word out of Peru’s Minister of Energy
and Mines this weekend was (23) (translated), “I hope this has been a misunderstanding.” Ugh.
Pathetic.
So to the bottom line and some reality for IKN Weekly readers: For one thing, as from mid-
December and through January 2022, the Southern Hemisphere holiday season cuts back on
production anyway, so the timing of this hardball play suits China’s MMG (e.g. it can get all
2022 vacation time done in one shot). For another, MMG has been a bad actor with Peru’s
locals ever since arriving and when you upset locals here, they tend to remember. For a third
point, these locals are nobody’s idea of open and honest actors, either; they’re as corrupt
around Las Bambas as anywhere else and perhaps more so, with town mayors constantly on
the take (or looking for ways to be) and when that’s combined with a sense of territory and the
feeling of being slighted by foreigners, the bad blood gets worse and doesn’t go away. Finally,
this current administration may be merely the most recent of a long line of ineffective arbiters
between the two sides, but that doesn’t exonerate them; Peru’s Mining Ministry needs to get
active on this problem and get the two sides sat down again. However and ultimately, the rump
of the blame lays with MMG trying to play hardball with Peru and attempting to impose “The
Chinese Way” on the country. That has been a serious mistake made by many Sino-capitals
companies in LatAm, not just this one and not just in Peru and, having been up close and
27

personal with some of the executive IR team at the company, this desk guarantees MMG’s
arrogance and collective sense of superiority is the kernel of a problem now ten years in the
making and unlikely to be solved during this latest round of bickering. So expect MMG and the
locals to come to yet another deal and then expect the occasional flare-up in the future. Plus ça
a change, plus c'est la meme chose.
Market Watching
The VID V / Laurentian Bank webinar this week
Early last week this desk received an invitation to a three-day webinar that starts tomorrow
Monday at 8am EST and, on clicking through, quickly decided to register and will attend mostly
due to the interesting format and the line-up on Day 1 (of three days). Here’s the link to the
site (24) and here’s the blurb which explains in their own words:
Sponsored by Laurentian Bank Securities, VID V is a three-day, event featuring
resource-focused public companies that have recently attracted market attention.
Our featured companies will have an opportunity to meaningfully share their individual
story with you. Featured companies will present a full 30-45 minutes in order to better
outline their investment opportunity, and we will provide you 15 - 20 minutes to ask live
follow-up questions after each presentation. Attendees are welcome and must register.
I am led to believe that link above is good for anyone who’d like to use it, so feel free in joining
me for the show. It’s free to register and join up and here are some (not all) of the one hour
slots for only tomorrow Monday (click and register for the rest, and for the Tuesday and
Wednesday program):
 Keynote Speaker Rob McEwen, McEwen Mining Keynote 12/6 @ 8:00am EST
 Feature Company Day 1 Fortuna Silver Mines Inc 12/6 @ 9:00am EST
 Feature Company Day 1 Jaguar Mining Presentation 12/6 @ 10:00am EST
 Feature Company Day 1 Argonaut Gold Presentation 12/6 @ 11:00am EST
 Feature Company Day 1 Wesdome Gold Mines Presentation 12/6 @ 1:00pm EST
That’s an interesting line-up: I’ll be intrigued to hear Rob McEwen as his MUX is supposed to be
on the brink of delivering on the Froome zone. For the Fortuna Silver (FSM) (FVI.to) hours, my
ears won’t be the only ones waiting for the company’s take and any latest news from San José
Mexico, though we shouldn’t forget the bumpy start its Lindero mine in Argentina has had
either, so that will be another topic of interest. I’ve listed JAG above as I know it’s a stock
followed by some IKN Weekly readers (I’m a watcher only), but then come two companies that
will command my full attention, Argonaut (long here) and previous winning trade Wesdome
(WDO.to), a company blessed with one of the best teams in the business.
Capstone Mining (CS.to) buys Mantos Copper
In the end it was less of a buyout and more of a 60/40 fusion, but sure enough the intel
previously passed on the blog and here turned out to be correct and Capstone Mining (CS.to)
announced its friendly deal with Mantos Copper on Tuesday in this (25) NR. As for more details,
I’m not going to claim expertise on the deal and prefer shameless copy-pasting. Here’s Mining
Weekly (26) with background on name-changes, confident timelines and how the executive
positions are being filled in the new Capstone Copper. What could possibly go wrong?
By 2024, Capstone Copper will increase its production by 45% to about 260 000 t/y of
copper from two fully-financed projects in Chile that Mantos is contributing. Mantos
Blancos is currently ramping up and construction is under way at the Mantoverde
project.
Once Capstone Mining’s Santo Domingo project, also in Chile, enters production, the
new company will produce 380 000 t/y.
Capstone Copper will be led by an executive team with significant mine building,
operational and leadership experience. Mantos founder John MacKenzie will take up
the CEO position and Capstone Mining CEO Darren Pylot will become executive
28

chairperson.
In addition, Capstone Copper appointed Cashel Meagher, former Hudbay COO, as
president and CEO from January 5.
Coast Copper (COCO.v) starts drilling
We identified this “sizzle stock” as a potential fliptrade a few weeks ago and it’s not letting the
grass grow under its feet. Almost immediately on receipt of treasury from its C$1.67m raising,
last week COCO.v announced the start of drilling at its Empire property, North Vancouver Island
(27). Please see the NR for more details, including the range of generated targets and the cute
way it explains how its geologists have been working hard, looking for the best place to put the
drill collars. It’s the type of script that hints heavily that COCO isn’t pitching at the sophisticated
retail end of the spectrum, as well as reasons to believe we should get first assays results back
soon. On that subject, the end of CEO Adam Travis’s comments contain these words;:
The Company is planning to have initial results and drillcore on display at the Metals
Investor (January 14 -15) and AME Roundup (January 31 – February 3) conferences in
Vancouver in 2022."
That’s good to know, as in one sentence we find out that this is a New Year Promo and that the
company isn’t going to hold back on the marketing front. Also good to know are the contents of
this visual, ripped from the latest corporate presentation (28) and incorporating the new, post-
financing share structure:
With 55.3m shares out and a closing price on Friday of C$0.13, COCO’s market cap is a low
C$7.2m and that’s the type of number which can deliver high leverage assuming some drill
success. Those of you wanting in before results start to flow basically have December.
Conclusion
IKN654 is done, we end with bullet points:
 Discovery Silver (DSV.v) delivered a top class PEA, even if that might sound like an
oxymoron to veteran sector observers. These are the ones that become mines, own
shares and be like me, long sand bullish silver .
 Slowly but surely, Amerigo Resources (ARG.to) under Aurora Davidson has got its ducks
in line and with the good news about regional water, its 2022 is now largely de-risked. I
may feel silly for not owning this one, therefore that may change soon.
 I may put that note on Ecuador and mining on the blog during the week, at some point
we need to warn an ignorant new crop of investors that the Mini Basket Case country
isn’t anywhere as safe as it’s made out to be by the paid promoter crew.
29

 However, it does feel weird to be bullish on Argentina’s future as a mining jurisdiction.
Next year will be a positive one for companies exposed there but, as always, pick your
exact location carefully.
 Don’t fear the virus, metals will go higher and were still in a target-rich environment.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stocks are Minera Alamos (MAI.v) and
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v). Flash updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best, Mark
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://www.siliconinvestor.com/subject.aspx?subjectid=58319
(2) https://discoverysilver.com/news/discovery-reports-preliminary-economic-assessment-on-cordero-with-after-tax-npv-
of-us-1.2-b-irr-of-38-and-payback-of-2.0-years/
(3) https://discoverysilver.com/site/assets/files/5120/dsv_corp_deck_-_nov_2021_v5.pdf
(4) https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/london-copper-falls-fears-sino-us-tensions-china-inventory-glut-2021-12-
03/
(5) https://www.df.cl/noticias/empresas/energia/codelco-asegura-que-tiene-el-agua-garantizada-para-la-produccion-
del/2021-12-01/194041.html
(6) https://www.globenewswire.com/en/news-release/2021/09/28/2304326/0/en/Amerigo-Announces-Reinstatement-of-
Dividends-and-Cdn-25M-Substantial-Issuer-Bid.html
(7) www.amerigoresources.com/_resources/news/nr_2021_11_30.pdf
(8) https://seekingalpha.com/article/4473146-newmont-corporation-nem-ceo-tom-palmer-presents-2022-guidance-
update-call-transcript
(9) https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/newmont-forecasts-gold-output-62-mln-ounces-2022-2021-12-02/
(10) https://cornerstoneresources.com/news-releases/21-23-ecuador-constitutional-court-rules-on-exploration-activities-
in-the-los-cedros-protected-forest-in-the-rio-magdalena/
(11) https://www.primicias.ec/noticias/economia/corte-constitucional-proyecto-minero-rio-magdalena/
(12) https://iknnews.com/did-you-think-ecuador-political-risk-for-mining-was-bad-before-this-week/
(13) https://marketresearchtelecast.com/moodys-warned-that-even-if-argentina-achieves-a-new-agreement-with-the-imf-
the-risk-that-the-set-goals-will-not-be-met-is-high/204194/
(14) https://www.valoraanalitik.com/2021/12/03/moodys-argentina-suficiente-alcanzar-acuerdo-fmi/
(15) https://www.ambito.com/economia/fmi/el-inevitable-escenario-que-preve-moodys-la-argentina-el-acuerdo-el-
n5328212
(16) https://www.adnsur.com.ar/politica/la-nueva-linea--peronismo-productivo--busca-debatir-la-mineria-y-otras-
actividades-que-generen-empleo_a61aaa92a512b715278c6e30c
(17) https://www.t13.cl/noticia/elecciones-2021/politica/cadem-boric-se-impone-kast-segunda-vuelta-presidente-03-12-
2021
30

(18) https://www.biobiochile.cl/noticias/economia/actualidad-economica/2021/12/04/sindicatos-de-codelco-norte-
declaran-a-kast-persona-no-grata-en-calama.shtml
(19) https://rpp.pe/economia/economia/las-bambas-mmg-suspendera-produccion-de-minera-debido-a-bloqueos-noticia-
1372809?ref=rpp
(20) https://exitosanoticias.pe/v1/roque-benavides-sobre-cese-de-operaciones-de-las-bambas-es-un-pesimo-mensaje-
para-las-inversiones-en-el-peru/
(21) https://diariocorreo.pe/edicion/cusco/dirigente-de-chumbivilcas-sobre-cese-de-operaciones-de-mmg-las-bambas-
ya-era-hora-noticia/
(22) https://www.msn.com/es-pe/noticias/otras/carlos-anderson-critica-suspensi%C3%B3n-de-la-producci%C3%B3n-
de-las-bambas-el-%C3%BAnico-perjudicado-es-el-pa%C3%ADs/ar-
AARrfOJ?cvid=fdf285c6fae345a4f1f364e3f9731c21&ocid=winp1taskbar
(23) https://diariocorreo.pe/economia/mineria-las-bambas-ministro-de-energia-y-minas-espera-que-se-trate-de-un-
malentendido-el-anuncio-del-cierre-de-operaciones-de-cobre-nndc-noticia/
(24) https://www.bigmarker.com/series/vid-v-sponsored-by-
laurentia/series_summit?bmid=c6a8bd7f78b5&source_from=invitation
(25) https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20211130005565/en/Capstone-and-Mantos-Copper-Combine-to-
Create-Capstone-Copper-a-Premier-Copper-Producer-With-Transformational-Near-Term-Growth
(26) https://www.miningweekly.com/article/capstonemantos-merger-gives-life-to-americas-copper-miner-2021-12-
01/rep_id:3650
(27) https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coast-copper-commences-drilling-empire-220500817.html
(28) https://docs.publicnow.com/FBBF5DBCA2E1298B63859AACFA74A725FB5D0A3F
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
31

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Ago-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Set-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Ene-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Set-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Ene-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Set-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Ago-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Abr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Set-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Abr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Set-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
32

Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-ago-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-ene-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-abr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-abr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-ene-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-ene-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-abr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-abr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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