6 The IKN Weekly, issue 653 — Nov 29, 2021
The IKN Weekly
Week 653, November 28th 2021
Contents
This Week: In Today’s edition, A target-rich environment of discounted mining shares, The
GLD inventory charts may be signalling a turn (at last) Last call for Basket Cases, The US BLS
Jobs report plus standard post-Black Friday hype.
Fundamental Analysis: Mene Inc (MENE.v) (MENEF) 3q21 financials, Minera Alamos (MAI.v)
3q21 financials, Discovery Silver (DSV.v) 3q21 financials.
Stocks to Follow: Palamina Corp (PA.v), Royal Road Minerals (RYR.v), Minera Alamos
(MAI.v),Trilogy Metals (TMQ), QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v), Great Bear Resources (GBR.v).
Copper Basket: Overview, Chakana Copper (PERU.v), Regulus Resources (REG.v).
Producer Basket: Overview, Agnico+Kirkland = Agnico (AEM), B2Gold (BTG).
Tiny Dogs: Overview, Contact Gold (C.v), Red Pine Exploration (RPX.v).
Regional Politics: Argentina and mining in 2022, Chile: Gabriel Boric will win the run-off…,
Peru: The impeachment of President Castillo will not prosper, Peru: The Prime Minister backs
down on mine closures, Nicaragua detains another critic.
Market Watching: Fortuna Silver (FSM) (FVI.to): Hints of a Balkan War, Alexco (AXU) trades
relatively well, Harte Gold (HRT.to) gets news, Almost a buyer of Coast Copper (COCO.v), No
word as yet on the Capstone Mining (CS.to)/Mantos Copper deal, Minera IRL (MIRL.cse) and its
mailer to shareholders.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
In Today’s Edition
Almost hesitant to say so, but today’s main event is the note on Minera IRL (MIRL.cse),
found in ‘Market Watching’ at the foot of the edition. The liars have been caught by
their own words and shareholders can now get the company cleaned up, back on track
and add value. With luck, this is the last time I have to dedicate myself to this sorry tale
of corporate mischief and from here, can get back to covering MIRL the mining stock.
We again get through three companies in this week’s main Fundies section, but this
time it’s overview stuff only as we take in the main points of the 3q21 periods reported
by Top Pick Minera Alamos (MAI.v), Discovery Silver (DSV.v) and Mene Inc (MENE.v).
These are not deep dives, this week is more a case of checking the boxes on covered
stocks and waiting for the fireworks to begin for each story.
Today’s Regional Politics section came out quite well, even if I do say so myself. Who
would have thought that Argentina would become the go-to destination for South
American rockbangers in 2022? Not me, that’s for sure.
Last week’s virusy, panicky market action, particularly a wholly forgettable Friday,
means the weekend snapshot of prices isn’t a true reflection of the state of affairs. It
sometimes happens like this and I see no reason to make any precipitous decisions
based on the US Thanksgiving week massacre as seen.
1
A target-rich environment of discounted mining shares
I’ve tried to avoid using the most obvious imagery this weekend, that of Black Friday Sale prices
now on offer in stocks and a “Cyber Monday” tomorrow in which you can pick them up, but it
was too tempting even for me. So IKN653 goes with the same phrase you’re going to get from
every hackneyed shiller of junior mining stocks this weekend (consider me in, I’m nothing
special or exceptional) because it’s true, the same “target rich environment” noted in recent
editions now comes with a discount, all thanks to Covid-19 development Out of (South) Africa.
We’re not going to get medical on you in this introduction today, so if you have the urge find a
debate on the severity of “Omicron” in other places; its potential severity and effects, be they
long or short-term are for people who understand these matters (or at least pretend to), they’re
not for me. We’re not getting political either, your vote, you party allegiances, your agreements
or disagreements with the people placed in political power are your problem, not mine. We’re
not even going to broach the subject of personal opinions, as my idea of reasonable caution
may be her idea of fear-mongering or even your idea of State-mandated fascism with a three-
cornered vice-versa. Take all that somewhere else.
What I know is that the world isn’t going to close down again. With the collective experience of
the last 18 months under our belts we understand a lot more about Covid-19, no matter
whether new strains show up that can get around the first wave of vaccines. We understand
which segments of society are at highest mortal risk, which have the least, how people get sick
and what to do if it happens. On a macro scale we have preparation and we have clear
protocols that reduce the risks of the most vulnerable. For just one example of hundreds, no
elderly person showing symptoms is being sent back from a hospital to their care centre and
allowed to interact with a few dozen people of their own age any longer, or if they do the
person signing the order will be in big trouble.
The world will not stop and with that in mind, we dial up the most straightforward of charts:
You get the Dow, gold bullion and copper on a five-year chart to show that in the broadest
sense, “stuff” is going to continue to get more expensive. The advent of Omicron means we
don’t have to use numbers and letters when talking about the next wave of infections, but the
narrative hasn’t changed since last week and the overriding market factor is still that of
inflation.
The good news this weekend, in an edition of The IKN Weekly dominated by red ink (and a
long note on MIRL), is that we can fully expect a relief rally in the week to come. Markets
almost certainly overreacted to the Omicron news and panicked a little too much, there’s no
reason to expect demand for copper and other “stuff” to suddenly drop off a cliff and as the
above chart shows, what most matters to the price of “stuff” is the unit of measurement of its
price. So, one more time and the same message as before, the Biden/Yellen/Powell new focus
on an attempted slaying the inflation dragon will be the major market factor going forward and
due to that, I will bet heavily on gold rising into 2022.
2
On that subject, if you witness any market commentator expressing surprise people are rushing
to spend their money in an inflationary environment, note down their names and never listen to
a single macro call from the person again. Also, when financial op-eds talking about the “triple
threat” to business of higher prices, demands for better salaries and “the great retirement” they
are really only talking about one thing; corporate profit margin. So if raw materials are going to
cost more, buy some copper. And if those pesky workers demand more money for an hour of
their time and threaten to quit if you don’t, give them their extra dollars but then sell them
something they’ll buy with the extra money in their pockets. But enough already with the line
that an inflationary environment is bad for the mining industry, the sector we cover is one that
produces raw materials and will, by very definition, be on the right side of the argument as
market prices will outstrip the extra cost of production for that tonne of zinc or ounce of silver.
We’ve seen the inflationary pulse go through the mining industry in 3q21, but past performance
is not the future so all those Twitter Gurus telling you that simply because mining input costs
have risen in 3q21 means they rise again in 4q21 and 1q22 ands 2q22 are simply wrong. Mining
companies live at the bottom end of the economic ladder, their job is to turn small portion’s of
the planet’s crust into something useful (and often shiny), there’s nothing more basic than that
aside from agriculture and it’s why the next inflationary pulse is to our benefit rather than
hindrance. Or in the simplest of terms, under the normal economic cycle it’s now our turn and
metals prices are about to rise.
The GLD inventory charts may be signalling a turn (at last)
This weekend, our tracking charts for gold bullion appetite and sentiment among those
wonderful ladies and gentlemen of Wall St. may, repeat may, be signalling a change in
sentiment at long last. To visualize, I’ve cut down the timescale of the two charts to the last six
months, the time in which we’ve seen GLD bullion inventory drop to under 1,000 metric tonnes
(mt) and our Inventory/Price ratio plumb record new depths:
6.50 GLD: Inventory/Price Ratio, 2H21 to date
6.40
6.30
6.20
6.10
6.00
5.90
5.80
5.70
5.60
5.50
3
1/7/1202 5/7/1202 9/7/1202 31/7/1202 71/7/1202 12/7/1202 52/7/1202 92/7/1202 2/8/1202 6/8/1202 01/8/1202 41/8/1202 81/8/1202 22/8/1202 62/8/1202 03/8/1202 3/9/1202 7/9/1202 11/9/1202 51/9/1202 91/9/1202 32/9/1202 72/9/1202 1/01/1202 5/01/1202 9/01/1202 31/01/1202 71/01/1202 12/01/1202 52/01/1202 92/01/1202 2/11/1202 6/11/1202 01/11/1202 41/11/1202 81/11/1202 22/11/1202 62/11/1202
Source: SPDR data, IKN calcs
GLD gold holdings, 2H21 to date (metric tonnes)
1050
1040
1030
1020
1010
1000
990
980
970
960
950
12/1/4 12/1/8 12/1/21 12/1/61 12/1/02 12/1/42 12/1/82 12/2/1 12/2/5 12/2/9 12/2/31 12/2/71 12/2/12 12/2/52 12/3/1 12/3/5 12/3/9 12/3/31 12/3/71 12/3/12 12/3/52 12/3/92 12/4/2 12/4/6 12/4/01 12/4/41 12/4/81 12/4/22 12/4/62 12/4/03 12/5/4 12/5/8 12/5/21 12/5/61 12/5/02 12/5/42 12/5/82
mt
source: SPDR GLD data
But in the last two weeks, the directions of those squiggly lines has changed. This weekend,
GLD bullion holdings stand at 992.85mt, up 17.45mt in two trading weeks. Then the ratio is
back up to 5.95X, still very low and normally signally washout level sentiment, but better than
the sub-5.6X of mid-November. I’m not jumping to conclusions, one swallow doesn’t make a
summer etc, but in my considered opinion we may be witnessing an important turn point and
another week or two of the same price and buying action would mean a lot to the future price
of gold. Eyes on the data, from here to Christmas.
Last call for Basket Cases
In IKN650 and 651 (with a rest last week), the call went out for suggestions for the three
basket trackers (Copper, Producer, Tiny Dogs) for 2022. As a result, plenty of ideas and some
of them will surely make the lists, but as promised today you get a final nudge. Once again
sincere thanks for suggestions in the past and for anything you’d like to mail my way in the
next few days. From here we copypaste again with the same script as in the other editions.
Here’s the framework and as the baskets are somewhat different in make-up, first a reminder
of what type of company we need in each list:
For The Copper Basket: We look for a group of 15 stocks that as a whole represent the
junior copper mining world. The maximum market cap is $1Bn, but preferably I like
them lower to better reflect our sector of interest. We welcome tinycaps, as a cross
section is required. As we’re not trying to beat the street and want a faithful reflection
of the sector, always happy to include bad copper companies or dog stocks if they bring
something to the table.
For The Producer Basket: There is no upper limit in market cap size, but we do require
a minimum market cap of U$2Bn. For this list, I’m looking for suggestions for precious
metals producers that will out-perform in 2020, because of the less important (except
for my own ego) of trying to beat the GDX benchmark on the year.
For The Tiny Dogs: First and foremost, for this list we require companies with a market
cap of $20m maximum, as The Tiny Dogs tracks market moves of the smallest
companies. However, at this level of market cap there are many broken stocks and
dead companies with projects going nowhere. They are not interesting, as although we
cannot expect operational or managerial perfection at this level the company still needs
to “have a pulse” and be a reasonable trade or speculative alternative.
Every year sees me wanting to change between three and five companies on each list. If you
have a good candidate for any of them, perhaps a company you already own, you are welcome
to write in to the usual addresses and nudge me in the right direction.
The US BLS Jobs report plus standard post-Black Friday hype
Friday sees the November jobs report from the US BLS, with seasonal factors in-play as usual
for this time of year and current consensus is for +563k non-farm payroll jobs added and a
headline unemployment rate down one tenth to 4.5%. As always, if you care about this dataset
please keep an eye on Calculated Risk (1) or your preferred trusted USD macro site, those
consensus numbers may adjust before Friday. Also, let’s not forget that US retailers always, but
always hype up their Black Friday sales numbers (and these days we add in Cyber Monday, so
have fun online, my North American virtual shopping friends). No matter the real numbers
come out, expect retails to be cock-a-hoop with initial sales figures. Sic transit gloria mundi.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Mene Inc (MENE.v) (MENEF) 3q21 financials (in CAD unless specified)
On Monday November 22nd our “other” investment, the 24k gold online jewellery retailer Mene
Inc (MENE.v) reported its 3q21 numbers (2). Today, you get the brief overview but before
digging in, the TL:DR in bullet points:
Sales were lower than I expected, but there are acceptable reasons
Costs were bang in line and MENE returned another “essentially breakeven” quarter
4
The company is well-prepared for the key 4q21 holiday season quarter
Financially MENE continues in fine shape
The modest sell-off to this week’s 70c offers the right price to add shares
To the numbers! The IKN Weekly doesn’t worry itself about sales and marketing matters, the
preferred shape and size of the baubles sold by Roy Sebag and his company, nor whether its
wares appear on the front cover of Italian fashion magazines. Those are issues for other
people, we are about the money:
MENE: Revenues per qtr
5
930.1 393.1 689.1 15.3 337.2 754.2 812.3
456.4 751.5
934.3
324.5
11.7 302.7
457.5 813.5
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3
C$m
source: company filings
Sales for 3q21 came in at C$5.318m, that was under the house expectation of C$7m and the
worst part of the financials (getting the bad out the way first). Commenting on this, CEO Sebag
told me of a “general slowdown in e-commerce this quarter” and that “e-commerce brands may
have gotten an unexpected surge during Q1-Q2 of 2021 due to Covid-19 and once lockdowns
were eased, a large group of the population reduced their rate of online consumption.” That
makes sense, but another factor is probably my own over-expectations and modest error as an
analyst. It’s one thing to identify an obvious
growth story, another to demand too much of MENE.v: Costs breakdown
a company that even now, is only truly in its
infancy. I’ve meditated more on MENE this
week than any other company (aside
MIRL…ugh) and my conclusion is that prefer
to have a company building in a solid way and
looking to the long-term than trying to reach and over-extend on a quarterly basis.
Evidence of the company’s attitude shows in
costs(right).
MENE splits its costs into two, with COGS
(gold is expensive to buy) and operating
expenses and both those numbers came in satisfactorily (so much for inflation). As a result…
…operating income returned a slight loss, of C$170k (net was C$-0.272m) and neither of those
976.1868.0 424.1361.1 998.1
777.1
757.1
725.2
255.2
450.2
38.1
159.1
867.1
465.2
997.2
557.3
127.1
441.4
582.1
125.2
133.1
548.3
319.1
914.5
35.1
664.5
34.1
422.4
614.1
270.4
8
7
6
5
4
3 2
1
0
81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3
$m
COGS operating exp
source: company filings,IKN ests
1 MENE.v: Operating income, per qtr
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
-1.5
-2
-2.5
81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3
C$m
source: company filings
numbers are of any concern, that’s another “all-but breakeven” quarter, the fifth in a row.
However, the good news is that we can expect a lot more from MENE in Q4 and for clues,
check out the evolution of its key inventories chart
MENE: Inventories per qtr
6
294.7
186.01
939.21 814.11
165.11
981.8
533.7
709.01
708.21
07.2
754.21
20.4
990.31
51.3
489.41
92.5
24 C$m
22
Supplies
20 Finished Goods
18 Work in Prog
Raw Mat.
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
4q18 1q19 2q19 3q19 4q19 1q20 2q20 3q20 4q20 1q21 2q21 3q21
source: company filings
At end 3q21, total inventories stand at C$21.658m, some c$4.3m higher than end 2q21 and the
vast majority of the add is in either finished goods or work in progress. In other words, MENE is
blinged-up and ready to sell its high-quality gold (and platinum) goods to its HNW, high-end
and often repeat customers. This allows us to predict a chart evolution of sales:
MENE:v: Revenues per qtr
40.1
93.1
99.1
15.3
37.2 64.2
22.3
56.4
61.5
44.3
24.5
11.7 02.7
57.5 23.5
00.9
05.7
00.7
11.0
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 tse12q4 tse22q1 tse22q2
C$m
source: company filings
So far, even the relatively good quarters at MENE have been “breakeven at best” but the
current quarter is set to mark a sea-change in its fortunes. We expect 4q21 to be the first time
MENE returns a true and meaningful profit on operations, and while the company and your
author (long MENE) are the first to admit this company will always be a seasonal earner due to
the very nature of its business, 4q21 is a business milestone in waiting and we should expect
MENE to shout its results off the rooftops in 2022, first via a preliminary sales NR and then in its
annuals, further down the line.
The good thing about getting the worst part of its 3q21 numbers done first (that weakened
sales number) is that it only gets better as we go on, so step forward the balance sheet:
MENE.v: Assets, per qtr
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 tse12q4
MENE.v: Liabilities Breakdown per qtr
40
$m cash inventories ST Inv other
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
source: company filings, IKN ests
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 tse12q4
source: company filings/IKN ests
srallod
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snoillim
note payable
other liab
borrowings
Assets (above left) are stacked with inventory, MENE is maximizing its bang-per-buck into the
holiday sales season. As for liabilities (above right) the only minor change is the non-cash value
of the goldmoney borrowings, there are no new loans or interest added (and boring =
wonderful for that chart). Which leaves equity (basically working capital) looking like this:
MENE.v: Equity per qtr
7
324.81
4.71 721.51 123.41 188.21 791.21
913.01
279.51 201.71 310.61 1.81
22
20
18
16
14
12
10 8
6
4
2
0
91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3 tse12q4
source company filings/IKN ests
srallod
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The dip to C$16.013m as at end 3q21 is largely due to that miss in sales (compared to my
overly-enthusiastic prediction of one of the two “soft” quarters for retail jewellers), but this
company has no financial problems at all and cash, at C$3.5652m as at end quarter, is more
than enough for its liquidity purposes. We expect equity to re-take C$18m at the end of the
current quarter. Finally, the market reaction of last week’s numbers and unlike most other
stocks, MENE sold off early week and remained steady into the weekend. The market’s reaction
was understandable for the miss on sales, but the current 70c share price (giving the company
a market cap of (CAD$170.8m) is a good entry point compared to the last four months and at
the right time of year, too:
Expect MENE to leave that sales number behind, report a far stronger sales figure in early
January and start adding cash to its war chest, instead of breaking even every quarter. When
that happens, the magical multiplier effect of being able to buy more raw material without
financial help begins and that is when MENE will start to spread its wings as a company. I will
continue to add small tranches of MENE shares on an ad-hoc basis to my portfolio and, at the
current prices, there’s the opportunity of doing so without affecting my cost average. Granted
that this wasn’t a great quarter, but it does provide a great opportunity.
Minera Alamos (MAI.v) 3q21 financials (in CAD unless stated)
I’m going to be almost criminally brief with the 3q21 financials from our Top Pick stock (and
personal largest holding…as long as the price stays up) Minera Alamos (MAI.v) for two reasons:
This quarter’s financials are so important, what matters is seeing MAI move into
commercial production as from 2022 (and hopefully they declare that on January 1st)
All we really need from these numbers are evidence that MAI is clear from the build-out
and has enough cash and liquidity to get through the always-tricky commissioning
phase of its first mine, Santana.
On both counts, MAI passes with flying colours so today you get the strict minimum on the
stock I would like all of you to own and at this weekend’s 54c, there’s no reason not to buy
some off Jabba the Hutt; this is insanely cheap, hold me to that statement in 2022. So here we
go and operations don’t even get a chart because they’ll only matter when commercial
production kicks off as long as there’s enough cash (seriously, this is as brief as they get, folks).
Instead we move straight to balance sheet items which could be done in one chart if I really
pushed things, but we’ll add the overviews of assets, liabilities and cash to the key working
capital evolution chart:
MAI.v: Assets
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
MAI burned about $1.1m more than the IKN
model forecast, plus around a million was
added to current liabilities (which is normal,
they’re building a mine now. So slightly less
cash and working capo than my model, but
nothing (and I mean nothing) that is of
concern.
There, all done. As for shares out (right), all
fine at 446.148m (a tiny rise) and at this
weekend’s 54c, MAI has a market cap of
C$241.1m (or U$193m at the house forex). Under U$200m for this company is financial
madness. President Doug Ramshaw will now berate me for not paying enough attention to his
company, I do not care. Once he calls commercial on Santana, I’ll be crawling over his books
like a rash. Top Pick confirmed, own some.
8
61q4 71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3
$m MAI.v: Liabilities per qtr
10
fixed 9
other current 8
cash 7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
source: company filings
61q4 71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3
source: company filings
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LT liabs
current liabs
MAI.v: Cash treasury per qtr
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
61q4 71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3
source: company filings
srallod
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snoillim
30 MAI.v: Working Capital per qtr
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
61q4 71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3
source company filings
srallod
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500 MAI.v: Shares Out
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
61q4 71q1 71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3
source: company filings/IKN ests
serahs
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Discovery Silver (DSV.v) 3q21 financials
Our third of three today continues with the brief style, but in this case there’s real reason to
hold back. The good news is that DSV is set to announce its PEA for its Cordero silver project
this coming week, with perhaps Wednesday December 1st being the day (though please don’t
hold me to that, this is mining and I don’t work for the company) So today we run the basic
financials, as reported by DSV on November 25th (3) and note a couple of interesting snippets
from the quarter, leaving the more complete analysis and talk for next weekend. That will
include an updated price target for the company.
First things first and operating expenses show a company exploring and developing Cordero at
full tilt:
C$m DSV.v: Operation expenses
12
other exp
10 Share payments
prof fees
8
G&A
6 Exploration
4
2
0
-2
1q18 2q18 3q18 4q18 1q19 2q19 3q19 4q19 1q20 2q20 3q20 4q20 1q21 2q21 3q21
source: company filings
The net loss for the quarter was C$8.753m and of that, a full C$7.141m went into exploration
costs. That’s an efficient use of capital and exactly what I want from an exploreco developing
its asset and moving to PEA stage. But if you check below the P+L numbers, it gets even
better:
DSV: Exploration costs breakdown
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
9
81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3
all other exploration
Cordero Driling
source: company filings
It nearly all went into drillbit, as of the C$7.141m in exploration costs, a full C$5.895m was paid
to the drillers as DSV returned (get this) 24,700m of core. Why can’t all explorecos do this?
That’s a serious question, but definitely for other companies and not for Discovery Silver. So
CEO Taj Singh, take a bow.
Moving quickly on to the balance sheet items, everything is largely as expected. DSV expenses,
so there’s no accrual of fixed assets to counter the drop in cash. As for liabilities, they remain in
an optimum position
DSV.v: Assets, per qtr
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Cash dropped sharply, by C$15.5m to C$57.637m, which is what you’d expect from a company
drilling at full tilt and working cap reflected the same.
However, buried down in the notes was one very interesting line item that explained where the
extra cash went, aside from that burned in exploration of course:
That’s small print, so here’s what it says: “During the three months ended September 30, 2021,
the Company acquired and cancelled a 2% net smelter royalty payable on production from the
Cordero Project for consideration of $5,298,138.” On inquiring of DSV, management told me
that they’d managed to negotiate the purchase of the only two underlying NSRs, both of 1%,
from a local rancher. DSV had the option to buy back 1% and they managed to get and cancel
the second, which means there’s no more underlying liens on the property aside from the
standard 0.5% owned by the government of Mexico on all precious metals properties. DSV
didn’t (and still doesn’t) want to make a fuss about this deal, because they are still closing on
surface rights deals with other locals (that are going according to plan, we quickly add) but
once again, we see the financial smarts of the DSV team at work. I like this a lot.
Our final chart of this rapid overview is shares out, which stand at 325.16m and give the
company a market cap of C$601.55m this weekend:
10
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3
$m DSV.v: Liabilities, per qtr
5
4.5 fixed
4
other current 3.5
cash
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
source: company filings
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
LT liabs
current liabs
DSV.v: Cash treasury per qtr
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3
source: company filings/IKN ests
srallod
fo
snoillim
100 DSV.v: Working Capital per qtr
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3
source company filings/IKN ests
srallod
fo
snoillim
DSV.v: Shares Out
11
440.56 440.56 440.56
17.861
12.112 84.112 23.752
15.992 10.503 49.323 51.523 61.523
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 12q3
source: company filings
serahs
fo
snoillim
On Wednesday, I am confident that the market will realize how low that is compared to what
they have at Cordero. The bottom line, DSV returned a good set of figures and I can’t wait to
write up this stock again, next weekend. See you then
Stocks to Follow
The good news is that we’re going to see a lot of green ink next week . With GDXJ down
6.53% on the week and gold down 3.33%, you’re not going to get good news from this intro
section, but at least we can say that the damage was done on a panicky Friday and the selling
of all things, Dow on down, now looks overcooked. So a relief rally is in the cards and in that
context, this snapshot isn’t a particularly fair view of the portfolio and its performance (or yours,
for that matter).
We have 15 open stocks, two of those returned a week-over-week win (CMMC.to, PA.v) and
two others were unchanged on the week (SMD.v, MIRL.cse). Then of the eleven losers, four
gave us double figure percentage losses namely Aurelius (AUL.v down 20.7%), Mene Inc
(MENE.v down 12.5%), QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v down 12.3%) and Top Pick Minera Alamos
(MAI.v down 10.0% ugh). However, along with the expected bounce in the days to come it’s
fair to say that AUL.v aside, there wasn’t any technical damage done to the price charts.
With the sale last week of Royal Road (RYR.v) and purchase of Palamina Corp (PA.v) we are
still at 15 open positions, our self-imposed maximum of stocks held and covered at any given
time. Seven of those stocks are in the green and eight are in the red.
company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.54 157.1% $1.14 tgt Aug'20, #1 idea
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v STR BUY C$0.83 22-Apr-18 C$0.67 -19.3% $1.30 1st tgt, building now
Recommended stocks (In order of preference)
Copper Mountain CMMC.to STR BUY C$3.42 18-Jun-21 C$3.50 2.3% Top value Cu play, overweight
Argonaut Gold AR.to STR BUY C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$3.56 20.8% Magino's upside,testing brkout
Discovery Silver DSV.v STR BUY C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.85 4.5% Serious Ag play, big&cheap
Trilogy Metals TMQ BUY U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.75 -4.9% Cu for 2021, stalled
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v STR BUY C$0.26 25-Apr-21 C$0.285 9.6% Now drilling. Easy hold
Palamina Corp PA.v STR BUY C$0.305 21-Nov-21 C$0.275 -9.8% New, gold expl in S.Peru
Strategic Metals SMD.v BUY C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.35 -16.7% Canadian land bet, recovering
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v SPEC BUY C$0.68 16-May-21 C$0.65 -4.4% Waiting on drill assays
Altiplano Metals APN.v BUY C$0.31 17-Sep-21 C$0.265 -1.8% Cheap entry, 1q22 re-rate
Great Bear Res GBR.v BUY C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$20.10 27.0% Barrick is suitor, M&A play
Aurelius Min. AUL.v hold C$0.75 28-Jun-20 C$0.29 -61.3% has until 43-101 to improve
Minera IRL MIRL.cse hold C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.085 -56.4% CEO change will move stock
Long-term non-mining hold
Mene Inc. MENE.v adding C$0.68 6-Dec-20 C$0.70 2.9% LT bet, adding slowly
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
NorsemontMining NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Sep-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
CartierResources ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
Royal Road Min. RYR.v noiv'21 C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.275 77.4% Closed on Nica pol risk
2015 to 2020 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on a few of our covered stocks but, as the macro tide for metals and stocks was
last week’s big factor, not so much this weekend:
Palamina Corp (PA.v): POSITION OPENED. After buying first at 32c on Monday, I
managed to get my cost average down to just over $0.305 by picking away at the lower prices
of the week once they showed up. So I’m marking today at 30.5c but, as I have some more
room to add, that may alter again in other weeks. The opportunity to add here at under 30c
next week was one of the factors that has kept me from buying COCO next week (see the short
note in ‘Market Watching’).
Royal Road Minerals (RYR.v): Sold, cauterized and no more Nica exposure for all the
reasons mentioned last week. There’s a quick note on the latest out of Nicaraguan politics in
today’s “Regional Politics” section but it’s not something I plan to return to after this weekend,
merely marking this audience’s card on the continued decadence of its political risk and what
12
you should expect in 2022.
Minera Alamos (MAI.v): We do the MAI 3q21 numbers above, here was note the continued
selling but this time, it wasn’t just Sean Roosen. It’s not so much fun to have called the near-
term market correctly in this stock, on the other hand I don’t really care that much and take the
same stance as MAI Prez Ramshaw; he just shrugged his shoulders and bought more shares,
good for him.
Trilogy Metals (TMQ): TMQ hasn’t been the easiest of rides since buying in September 2019,
but at least we bought well.
We’ve seen it run higher on several occasions, not least in mid-this year when the NYSE-listed
stock touched U$3.00, albeit briefly. It has dropped back every time and proven frustrating, but
at least by buying well it makes it easier to hold. We may see the U$1.50 level again this time,
we may not, but this weekend’s U$1.75 is the right place to by for a rebound trade
QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v): QCCU got hit harder than most, so fellow longs need to know
that a FUD campaign has started on the stock, based around the Crux Investor site and CEOca
site. The rumour they are spreading is how
the open pit will devastate the town of
Chapais and enough people got nervous about
it in a nervy market to see the stock close
under 30c. Meanwhile, this new video
published by QCCU with suitably dramatic
violin backing track (4) shows the company’s
current idea for the conceptual open pit at
Opemiska and should go a long way to
allaying the rather silly voices now appearing
online. I’ve heard more than a few negatives
about Crux Investor recently, for what it’s
worth, that guy is getting too big for his
britches and boasting about having some
massive number of dollars in AUM, quite the turnaround for an ex-beekeeper. The only
difference about my trashtalk and FUD is that it’s based on fact.
Great Bear Resources (GBR.v): Talking of rumours, the big one around GBR now is that
they are actively helping Barrick (GOLD) secure its land position around Dixie. That means only
one thing, a friendly M&A deal in the pipeline. After failing on Kirkland Lake, at some point in
2022 Bristow will get his coveted new asset in Canada.
13
The Copper Basket
After forty-seven weeks of 2021, The Copper Basket shows a gain of 24.12% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/21 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Solaris Res SLS.to 6.08 107.53 1415.09 13.16 116.4%
2 Copper Mtn CMMC.to 1.81 207.5 726.25 3.50 93.4%
3 Oroco Res OCO.v 1.85 192.584 481.46 2.50 35.1%
4 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.25 87.737 330.77 3.77 16.0%
5 Western Copper WRN.to 1.57 135.798 240.36 1.77 12.7%
6 Amerigo Res ARG.to 0.80 181.79 227.24 1.25 56.3%
7 Excelsior Min. MIN.to 1.12 273.585 106.70 0.39 -65.2%
8 Regulus Res. REG.v 1.07 101.85 106.94 1.05 -1.9%
9 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.455 125.24 81.41 0.65 42.9%
10 C3 Metals CCCM.v 0.115 438.56 83.33 0.19 65.2%
11 Doré Copper DCMC.v 1.00 53.304 42.64 0.80 -20.0%
12 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.45 68.281 38.92 0.57 26.7%
13 Chakana Cop PERU.v 0.60 111.41 35.09 0.315 -47.5%
14 Chibougamau CBG.v 0.165 53.077 11.94 0.225 36.4%
15 US Copper USCU.v 0.105 87.53 8.75 0.10 -4.8%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg 24.12%
A negative week for the list, the decent 60% The Copper Basket 2021, weekly evolution
55%
momentum that built during the week 50%
being hit hard on Friday by the panicky, 45%
40%
panickesque, panickish (though not real
35%
panic) selling brought on by that virus and 30%
25%
its newsflow. Copper the metal dropped
20%
hard, stocks followed suit and by the close 15%
10%
Friday a largely positive count for our 15
5%
charges had morphed into just two 0%
winners (CMMC.to, CCCM.v), one UNCH
(CBG.v) and 12 losers. Of those, the only
double-figure percentage drop was in
Chakana Copper (PERU.v down 13.2%) and most of the others stayed in their trading ranges
and weren’t too bad. The negativity last week was tidal for the whole commodities sector,
rather than copper or company specific.
The main futures action has now rolled over to the March 2022 contract (HGH22) and rather
than consider just the last few days,
this three-month chart gives better
context to Friday’s drop (right). In
the words of Monty Python’s Black
Knight (5), “Tis but a scratch”. In
macro news, The International
Copper Study Group (6) last week
provided some evidence of a
slowdown in copper demand, its
monthly data reporting a surplus of
52,000 metric tonnes during the
month of August 2021 (they aren’t
the quickest compilers, has to be
said). Here’s a chart (below) to put
that August figure into perspective:
14
ts1
naJ
t01naJ ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7bef ht41 ts12 ht82 ht7ram ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4rpa ht11 ht81 ht52 n2yam ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6nuj ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4luj ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1gua ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5pes ht21 ht91 ht62 dr3tco ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7von ht41 ts12 ht82
source: IKN calcs
ICSG: Refined copper supply surplus/deficit, per month
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
-25
-50
-75
-100
-125
-150
15
0202rpa yam nuj 02'luJ gua pes tco von ced 1202naJ bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua
kmt Cu
source: ICSG
Following on from a soft-ish July, That gives the first eight months a running total deficit of
107,000mt refined copper. Meanwhile, China’s port authorities last week gave us their running
total of imports of copper into the country for the first ten months (to October, they are
quicker) with refined copper imports down 37.2% Year-over-Year (YoY), concentrates up 6.5%
YoY and scrap copper up 98% YoY, basically because China stopped importing scrap in 2020 in
its new enviro-green drive, only to quietly drop the idea when it realized it was an economic
own-goal. As concentrates make up the big majority of all imports, there’s nothing in these
numbers to suggest a slowdown in demand in China.
And that’s not even mentioning the unprecedented drawdown of copper stocks this year, so on
that subject, here comes the regular weekly segment with data as usual from Chile’s Cochilco:
World copper stocks finally managed an aggregate gain last week, perhaps small but
still valid. The three systems together added 1,655 metric tonnes (mt) to finish Friday
at 179,190mt, with low volumes moved and arbitrage the only real factor.
The Shanghai SHFE managed added 6,944mt to finish the week at 41,862mt, still
amazingly low compared to any time in its history, just slightly higher than last week.
At some point in December or January, stocks will start to return to SHFE warehouses
as the Chinese New Year looms.
The LME saw a similar-sized drop, down 6,075mt to close at 83,800mt, also extremely
low on a historical basis as end-users look around to complete inventory consignments
before 2021 rounds out. Still extremely bullish, though Cancelled Warrants jagged
down another 10k or so to finish at 19,350mt (see below).
Comex stocks rose another modest 786 metric tonnes to close at 53,528mt. No big deal
again, but in a quiet week even its sub-K changes make a difference to the total.
Here’s the Shanghai-only inventories chart, finally looking as though it’s bottoming out but
again, that’s because they haven’t got much left to shift.
Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2014 to date
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
31'13ceD ht9 ht81 ht72 ht5tco ht41 dn22 dr3yam ht21 ht02 ht92 ht7bef ht71 ht62 ht4peS ht31 ht92 ht9 ht81 ht72 ht5von ht41 ht52 ht01 ht91 ht82 ht6naJ ht71 ht62 ht4gua ht31 dn22 202ts1ram ht01 ht91 ht72 0202ht6ced ht41 ht52 1202ht4luj ht21 ts12
Mt Cu
|
source: Cochilco
However, LME cancelled warrants are down to 19,350mt,
almost 150kmt down from its recent high while Trafigura was
cornering the market. That’s around 20% lower than this time
last weekend and another signal of the high demand period
ending, as is our last chart, showing how the near-end
backwardation in copper has finally unwound. The last time we
ran the visual on this subject (instead of mere chatter) was
back in May and IKN625, please see the small chart (right) as
a reminder of what the curve looked like then. Now check out
below for the latest curve from Comex:
COMEX Copper contracts, at Friday close
4.36
4.34
4.32
4.3
4.28
4.26
4.24
4.22
4.2
4.18
4.16
16
12ced 22naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes tco von ced 32naj bef ram rpa yam nuj luj gua pes
U$/lb
source:Comex
While we still have a drop-off for the longer-dated and thinly traded contracts for 2023, the
arrows point to the change in the near-term pricings. We’re back to a modest contango in
contracts from now to the most heavily-traded March expiry, which shows the effect of the sell-
off Friday.
Now for notes on just one of our basket stocks:
Chakana Copper (PERU.v): Two Thursdays ago, PERU.v released its final drill holes for the
2021 season under the banner headline (7) “Chakana Intersects 10m with 15.48 g/t Gold,
1.27% Copper and 82.4 g/t Silver (18.50 G/t Au-eq or 12.09% Cu-eq) within 237m of 1.74 g/t
Gold, 0.59% Copper and 25.2 g/t Silver in Breccia Pipe 5 from Surface at Soledad, Peru”, once
again showing high-grade hits inside longer intercepts across one of its tourmaline breccia pipe
targets. We now await the company’s Maiden Resource Estimate (MRE), which will undoubtedly
be one of those “snapshot in time” numbers they will look to grow next year (and beyond). This
:
ten day chart of PERU.v set against copper sector benchmark COPX shows the problem
Anyone buying the news gets knocked over by people wanting out immediately afterwards. This
doesn’t bode well for trading around the MRE news, due next month.
Regulus Resources (REG.v): A whole year without drilling a metre and three financial
quarters without saying a thing to its shareholders through official channels. Shameful.
The Producer Basket
After forty-seven weeks of 2021, the Producer Basket shows a loss of 10.83% to level stakes:
Mkt Cap
company ticker price 1/1/20 Shares out (U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 59.89 805 45.03 55.94 -6.6%
2 Barrick GOLD 22.78 1778.04 34.46 19.38 -14.9%
3 Agnico Eagle AEM 70.51 244.187 12.66 51.83 -26.5%
4 Kirkland Lake KL 41.27 267.056 10.90 40.82 -1.1%
5 Kinross Gold KGC 7.34 1261.07 7.73 6.13 -9.1%
6 Endeavour Min EDV.to 29.62 252.568 6.31 29.96 1.1%
7 Pan American PAAS 34.71 210.262 5.42 25.79 -25.7%
8 B2Gold BTG 5.60 1051.697 4.27 4.06 -27.5%
9 Alamos Gold AGI 8.75 392.739 3.08 7.83 -10.5%
10 Pretium Res PVG 11.48 187.833 2.58 13.76 19.9%
Prices in U$ except EDV.to (share price in CAD$ and mkt cap in approx USD) Port. avg -10.83%
A bizarre end to a bizarre week sees both our list and the GDSX benchmark down exactly
10.83% for the year. Literally neck and neck with just five weeks of the trading year to go (or
four if you don’t include the always quiet one between Christmas and New Year). As for this
week, GDX dropped by 4.6%, GDXJ by 6.5% and all ten of our stocks were down. Most were
in the same range as the benchmark, the outliers being least-worst Newmont (NEM down
1.08%) and Pretium (PVG down 1.92%), then the biggest fallers Endeavour (EDV.to down
9.5%), Kinross (KGC down 8.1%) and B2Gold (BTG down 7.94%).
However, this weekend’s snapshot probably doesn’t do the sector justice and we should expect
the over-selling and knee-jerk reaction we saw on Friday to unwind next week. This edition
they return all red, I’m expecting a sea of green in IKN654 next weekend.
The 2021 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
20%
comparative to GDX control
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%
Agnico+Kirkland = Agnico (AEM)
Time is now limited on the Kirkland Lake ticker, as on Friday both companies announced that
shareholders had approved the “merger of equals” and Tony Makuch gets a new job. On the
AEM side, approval was unsurprising and got 99.86% votes cast. The competition was always
going to be with the KL meeting but in the end it went through reasonably easily, with over
70% of votes outstanding represented at the meeting and approval by 80.65% of votes cast.
With just a couple of weeks left on the year and the likelihood KL remnants will trade a little in
December, there’s no swapping out KL for another stock on our list. However, one new name is
now 100% guaranteed for The Producer Basket in 2022.
17
ts1
naJ
t01naJ ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7bef ht41 ts12 ht82 ht7ram ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4rpa ht11 ht81 ht52 n2yam ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6nuj ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4luj ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1gua ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5pes ht21 ht91 ht62 dr3tcO ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7voN ht41 ts12 ht82
The 2021 Producer Basket: Percentage difference between
GDX benchmark and basket (negative = IKN basket ahead)
8.0%
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
ikn -2.0%
gdx control source: Google, IKN Calcs ts1
naJ
t01naJ ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7bef ht41 ts12 ht82 ht7ram ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4rpa ht11 ht81 ht52 n2yam ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6nuj ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4luj ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1gua ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5pes ht21 ht91 ht62 dr3tcO ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7voN ht41 ts12 ht82
source: IKN calcs, NYSE/Nasdaq/TSX data
B2Gold (BTG): The Clive’s company dropped by more than most, perhaps because of the
news story that did the rounds last week about BTG wanting to buy into Zimbabwe and
build/operate a gold mine there. Perhaps this is The Clive’s strategy to make BTG unbuyable by
a larger company that takes country risk and ESG more seriously. At least we know that there’s
at least one precious metal company willing to add political risk to its portfolio at the moment,
perhaps they would be interested in buying Torex (TXG) as well.
B2Gold’s performance, already sub-standard compared to the sector, just got worse.
The Tiny Dogs
After forty-seven weeks of 2021, the Tiny Dogs show a gain of 18.14% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/21 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Antler Gold ANTL.v 0.205 66.365 14.60 0.22 7.3%
Aston Bay BAY.v 0.045 163.975 9.84 0.06 33.3%
Constantine Met CEM.v 0.17 45.4 27.69 0.61 258.8%
Contact Gold C.v 0.115 240.757 12.04 0.05 -56.5%
Golden Pursuit GDP.v 0.22 40 5.00 0.125 -43.2%
Manitou Gold MTU.v 0.045 230.79 13.85 0.06 33.3%
Precipitate Gold PRG.v 0.240 106.241 9.56 0.09 -62.5%
QC Copper QCCU.v 0.315 105 29.93 0.285 -9.5%
Red Pine Expl RPX.v 0.400 95.806 54.61 0.57 42.5%
Warrior Gold WAR.v 0.090 91.818 6.43 0.07 -22.2%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 18.14%
This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
Market capitalization of under $20m. They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a
little and allowed sub-U$20m market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, but it was a particularly depressing exercise to trawl through the whole of the TSXV and find companies
that are small enough, but with life in them. The vast majority of sub-$20m stocks are broken stocks, either
traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2020. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
18
Tiny Dogs being what they are, our list 24% Tiny Dogs, 2021 weekly tracker
managed to register a couple of week-over- 20%
week winners despite the bloodletting among 16%
the larger miners with Constantine (CEM.v) and 12%
8%
Red Pine (RPX.v) both winners. Manitou
4%
(MTU.v) remained unchanged, which leaves
0%
seven losers on the week and you don’t get the
-4%
ticker list for those, we merely note the biggest
-8%
drops in Golden Pursuit (GDP.v down 21.9%)
-12%
and QC Copper (QCCU.v down 12.3%).
Contact Gold (C.v): No sooner do we pipe up in IKN652 last weekend, this NR hits (8) to
announce the all-but completed financing and gross proceeds of C$2.88m, with the last 2.4m
units priced at 5c (unit = share + half warrant at 7.5c) expected to close this week. So much
for my cynicism last week, but this is still a limited treasury and if history is our guide, won’t last
C.v more than three quarters. Green Springs is still more interesting than Pony Creek and Pony
Creek is still the reason Waterton controls the destiny of this company
Red Pine Exploration (RPX.v): It’s the last few weeks of this stock on the Tiny Dogs list, if
only for its newly elevated market cap after the corporate re-shuffle and refi earlier this year.
So let’s send it off with a cheer, as RPX last week jumped on the growing GoldSpot (SPOT.v)
bandwagon by announcing that it had hired the AI tech company to help it search for the place
to put a drill rig at its Wawa project, central Great Lakes Canada.
It makes sense, too; GoldSpot has had success with Pretium and though Wawa isn’t the same
as the ultra-high grade system there, it has been hitting the occasional decent graded hole
under skinny widths. It’s also a very large, multiple-target concession and one of the issues a
small company always has is prioritizing its exploration campaign. If things go to plan, SPOT
can help them choose their best options and create an order of priority for the company, which
then drills and hits the game-changer hole and shoots the market cap higher. What could
possibly go wrong?
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future
I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet aretrictly neutral.
Regional politics
Argentina and mining in 2022
It’s now not a case of if, but when Argentina rolls out a new and highly miner-friendly national
and provincial initiative to encourage more FDI and more mining dollars to the country. On a
national level, the government’s PEDMA plan is waiting to roll out and it seems that it’s more a
case of them waiting to see how many mining (or potential mining) provinces they can get
onside. With the mid-term elections now behind them and total disaster averted (the
government still did badly, but not as badly as many expected), thoughts of the President are
now focused on a veritable sword of Damocles suspended over his head; the money Argentina
borrowed in the Macri era from the IMF begins to come due next year and in effect, Argentina
has to find around U$41Bn (with a B) to stay out of default. The issue is so concerning that the
Pope (Bergoglio is an Argentine) is getting involved, and one of the FinMin’s most obvious
courses of action is to develop its mining industry. That’s jobs, growth and, most importantly,
hard dollars entering the country when Argentina most needs it. Be in no doubt, Alberto
Fernández has made up his mind between siding with the ecologists or the bankers; it’s the
economy, stupid. Meanwhile in the provinces, the moves to get people and places ready for the
onset of PEDMA are underway and it looks to this desk that the reason the national government
has delayed the plan is to try and get as many places on-side as possible. We know provinces
19
ts1
naJ
t01naJ ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7bef ht41 ts12 ht82 ht7ram ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4rpa ht11 ht81 ht52 n2yam ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6nuj ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4luj ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1gua ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5pes ht21 ht91 ht62 dr3tcO ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7voN ht41 ts12 ht82
source: IKN calcs, TSX data
such as San Juan, Santa Cruz etc will welcome the initiative with open arms, what Alberto
needs are the holdout zones to join in.
Jujuy’s provincial government has just opened up 170,000 hectares of prospective land
to mine concessioning and staking in areas that are traditionally anti-mining
In Mendoza, a supreme court judge last week ruled that its controversial 7722 law that
prohibits the use of toxic chemicals in mining (a de facto ban) is at least partly
unconstitutional. To be clear, there’s precious little separation of powers in Argentina
and judges often “do what they’re told” on a number of issues.
In Chubut (once again), the national government is pushing for the province to
“zonificate” and allow the central Meseta region to develop mining, with first among
equals there the Pan American Silver (PAAS) Navidad mine. Last week saw the
equivalent of Argentina Vice-Minister of mining pushing on the subject, calling for more
jobs and opportunities for the zone and attributing the anti-mine position as the
“confusion of progressives”, which went down like a lead balloon in Esquel. Meanwhile,
December 4th sees Chubut’s annual (and postponed) PJ party conference and in the
run-up, there’s plenty of talk about governor Mariano Arcioni looking to get party
consensus on mining, which he could then put before the provincial parliament in order
to get his yearned-for zonification law pushed through (next year will be his third year
of trying).
Expect Argentina to go on a full charm offensive for the mining industry in 2022, taking
advantage of the new nerves and doubts FDI has about places such as Chile or Peru
(unfounded of course but hey…marketing). I’m on record as being one of the biggest skeptics
about the country and its attitude toward the mining industry, but there’s a clear window of
opportunity coming up. I’m long Aldebaran (ALDE.v, now drilling of course) and Josemaria
(JOSE.v) is in my plans, too. Faites vos jeux, mesdames et messieurs
Chile: Gabriel Boric will win the run-off…
…against José Antonio Kast on December 19th and become Chile’s next President. The
momentum was already clear before this weekend (hence the quick note on the open blog on
Friday (9), but this weekend and the latest opinion polls have confirmed the trend. First, last
Monday November 22nd national pollster Cadem (10) which gets regular criticism for being
biased toward the political right wing called the race a dead heat, with Lefty Boric and Righty
Kast both given 39% voter intention. From that point it’s been all Boric, with several leading
politicians lining up behind the Left wing candidate, even centre-right voices calling Kast “a
threat to democracy” (see last weekend) and a couple of campaign advisors and political
operators pledging their support and efforts to Boric. This weekend the trend continued, with
veteran and maverick politico
Marco Enríquez-Ominami (aka “ME-O”) ratifying his support and living Chile a now typical line of
thinking (11) (translated): “Faced with the threat expressed by our society of the advance of
the ultra-right candidacy of José Antonio Kast, we call on our militant base ands national
supporters to add themselves to the grass-roots commandos of Gabriel Boric.” Chilean syntax
looks weird when translated literally, but the message is clear. As a result, this weekend’s
“Pulso Cuidadano” poll, recognized as the most reliable and neutral pollster in the country, put
voter intention for the ballotage as follows (12):
Gabriel Boris: 40.4%
José Antonio Kast: 24.5%
Don’t know: 15.6%
Will not go to vote: 12.8%
Vote in white/spoil ballot: 6.9%
According to those polled, the major deciding factor is Boric’s support of the Constitutional
Assembly, set to begin seriously next year, while Kast wants to scrap the whole idea. Chileans
20
also seem reasonably at ease with Boric’s pledges not to impose a hard left wing agenda, so
expect Chile to move back to the left but not to the extremes, perhaps slightly further left than
the previous Michelle Bachelet administrations but that’s about it. No real threat to mining,. No
matter what you might hear on social media in the next three weeks.
Peru: The impeachment of President Castillo will not prosper
This week, the hardcore opposition to President Pedro Castillo in Peru’s parliament managed to
obtain the 26 signatures (20% of Congress) it needs to call a motion to “vacate” (basically
impeach and then throw out if they win the debate) the President and that means Congress
gets its day in the sun. So while I’ve given up writing the words “never”, “certain” and others of
that style when writing up PeruPolitik, this motion is highly unlikely to prosper and for three
main reasons. To begin, the motion is being called mostly by supporters and adherents of Keiko
Fujimori, who may enjoy her baseline support (populist right wing and moving further right by
the month), but she doesn’t have the type of popular support or basic charisma required to
unite enough members of Congress across the political spectrum.
Second point, the members of his own Perú Libre party on the far Left who have turned their
back on Castillo as a “traitor to the party/left/people/whatever” have their own constituents to
whom to answer. While Castillo isn’t a nationally popular figure, he does retain reasonable
support in provincial Peru and those are the people to whom PL party members must ultimately
answer. Provincial Peru isn’t the same as Lima and people tend to be more socialist* (with a
small S), i.e. community and “other-people minded” no matter whether they vote to the right or
the left. They are less reactionary and more reticent to throw out a Heads of State who may be
inept, but with less than six months on the clock hasn’t had a fair crack at the whip yet.
But the third reason is the most important, and that’s César Acuña, the right wing businessman
and politico who has run for Prez in the last two elections (and got nowhere). He controls a
sizeable bloc of votes on the right wing of Congress and has already voiced his support that
Castillo stay in his job, if only “to maintain stability” in the country. Acuña has finally realized
that if he wants to be President next time around, he has to stop thinking in the present tense
and should plan for the future. His strategy is reasonably simple, too:
1) First watch “Los Fujimoristas” blow their political brains out on this motion to throw out
President Castillo
2) At the same time as supporting the President, he is and will continue to be highly
critical of the minister placed in charge by Castillo, using the “This country deserves
more than the (often Lefty) rubbish in charge of Ministry X, Y or Z”
3) As a result, Castillo’s presidency is destined to make little progress on its left wing
agenda.
4) Further down the line, he’s bound to turn on Castillo as an ineffective President, timing
at his own pleasure.
César Acuña is currently opening up the right wing by neutralizing the Fujimori populist right.
He can then build consensus for the moment he decides to attack which may even leave
Castillo to finish his full term, today I’d give that a 50/50 chance (if you’d asked me a few
weeks ago it would have been less likely). For what it’s worth, I think he’s an odious man and
as trustworthy as a pickpocket, but he’d probably make a reasonable President come the day.
Overall, Peru’s political scene will never be “stable” and I’m not planning to get into the weeds
of the country on these pages (mail me if you want nitty-gritty on specific subjects), but I think
we’re in for a period of lesser upheaval and controversy as 2022 rolls out. It’s tough to predict
much beyond that, but an ineffective lefty President that sticks around and does nothing into
2023 wouldn’t be the worst of outcomes. What really matters is that Julio Velarde has stayed
on at the Central Bank as assuming he stays there (unlikely to resign suddenly, even less to be
kicked out) Peru has a true adult in the room.
*Anyone reading that word and thinking political, or Socialist party politics, or even Commie, should stop reading these
words and stop reading The IKN Weekly, for that matter, I can do nothing for you.
21
Peru: The Prime Minister backs down on mine closures
As well as the Monday morning sell-off (see last week’s edition), you can probably see the
moment when word that Peru’s Prime Minister, Mirtha Vásquez, started to climb down from her
position to close four mines in Peru due to their constant environmental infractions (all via the
imposition of their mine closure plan) by looking at the price chart for Hochschild (HOC.L),
owners of two of the mines in question:
The price chart also suggests the writing was on the wall before late Wednesday evening (LSE
reacting Thursday at the bell. The pressure brought to bear by the business and mining
communities was strong, but as the week wore on we learned that she didn’t have a full grasp
on Peruvian mining law and how “closure plans” in fact work. But doubts still remain over HOC
and they are going to have to clean up their act at those two mines to avoid further issues.
What with its patchy record and exposure to silver, HOC remains an easy avoid for this desk.
Nicaragua detains another critic
Not content with remanding seven of his political rivals in jail before the election, on Monday
evening we got this (the news filtering in the country on Tuesday (13)
Nicaragua’s former ambassador to the Organization of American States – who has
been critical of President Daniel Ortega – has been detained in Managua, according to
his wife and a human rights observer.
Edgard Parrales was picked up by identified men near his home on Monday, his wife,
Carmen Dolores Cordova, and Nicaraguan Center for Human Rights President Vilma
Nunez said.
Nicaragua’s Daniel Ortega has arrested another dissenting voice, which adds to the politicians
jailed for spurious reasons as well as the editor of La Prensa newspaper, now on his 108th day
in prison for attempting to report on events in the country in a balanced manner. These are the
issues I was willing to swallow as long as the world didn’t take economic action against the
country, now with The USA beginning targeted sanctions it’s not possible for a purely
capitalistic, buy-low-sell-high publication to ignore them any longer. Nicaragua is now
untouchable for FDI in the same way that Venezuela is, and the fact that the country’s
withdrawal from the Organization of American States (OAS) will take approximately two years
to complete is neither here or there.
Market Watching
Fortuna Silver (FSM) (FVI.to): Hints of a Balkan War
One of those notes that straddles “Regional Politics” and “Market Watching”, I’ve decided to put
it on this side of the fence. After all we wrote on Fortuna Silver Mines (FSM) (FVI.to) last week,
it’s only right to present a report and word of apparent wrongdoing on the other side of the
fence. It’s not as if one side is totally black-hat and the other side white-hat, reality is messy
and Mexico is not exception. This situation has the air of another mining Balkan War and on
Friday, reports hit the wires of apparent wrongdoings on the par of opposition groups to the
22
company.
This report out of local Oaxaca media on Friday morning (14) talks of organizers of the anti-
mining campaign going door-to-door, collecting signatures for their petition against the San
José mine…or else. This may of course be FUD propaganda by those who secretly approve of
the mine’s presence (they provide work and economic activity for a host of small businesses
around the site), but we’ve also seen episodes of violence against workers at the mine in the
last few months as well. Anti-mine campaigners are quick to point to previous incidents and
four people assassinated in years gone by, who also opposed the mine (that they were killed
and that they were opposed to the mine are two facts, but not necessarily related). However,
they keep quieter about the shooting death four months ago of an engineer who worked at the
mine (15), a 29 year old originally from Sinaloa, who was sat on his front porch one afternoon
around 4pm when two people approached him, shot him dead in cold blood and calmly walked
away. Again: he was murdered and he also worked at the mine, not necessarily related. (??)
Personally, I see this as (sadly, yet another) example of a Balkan War scenario in mining, where
just because you are against one side doesn’t mean you are in favour of the other. Two wrongs
do not make a right, however these reports coming out of the zone this weekend will allow FSM
some public opinion favour. Mexican society is fully aware that “agrarian collectives” know
exactly how to defend themselves and if it turns out they’ve been applying pressure to people
for signatures, they are bound to do their cause more harm than good.
Finally, we note the story is now in the national eyes as yesterday Saturday, the report was
picked up by Mexican business media site El Economista under the title “Inhabitants of San José
del Progreso report intimidation if they favour
the operation of a mine”, which much the same
content as the local report the previous day. As
for the capitalist end of this, this desk doesn’t
hide the fact that if FSM manages to revert
SEMARNAT’s opinion and get the license it
needs, there’s money to be made. Put a gun to
my head (figuratively speaking, of course) and
I’d say that they won’t get all the move back
that they lost from the SEMARNAT move (box)
and ensuing sentiment fallout (arrow), but even
a chart move back to U$4.60 or so would imply
a 30% upside from this weekend and with the
volume FSM trades, that’s serious money.
Alexco (AXU) trades relatively well
Mentioned last week as “best of breed” story at a recent mining sector conference, Alexco
shares also dropped last week under the general market pressure but...
..nowhere nearly as much as the average silver stock, represented by the Global X Silver Miners
23
ETF (SIL) above. That looks like positive divergence to me and once again, AXU appeals with a
good entry point on offer.
There are, of course, many cheap shares to choose from today after last week’s market (Friday
in particular) but The IKN Weekly’s remit is to point you toward quality, not just quantity. Now
on the proverbial cusp of commercial production at KHSD, AXU is as good a silver company as
they come and will surely benefit form the re-rate on announcement of commercial production.
We recall that funds and instos with silver-based vehicles, so far unable to buy into the
company, will be particularly interested in AXU and its approximately 80% of its revenues mix
from silver. My sole direct exposure to silver today is Discovery Silver (DSV.v), but Clynt
Nauman’s exemplary company is still on the shopping list under the right market conditions.
Harte Gold (HRT.to) gets news
The sidebet got news last week, but not something that will immediately change the fate if the
stock price and my original prediction that “these Canadian mines don’t go bankrupt” may have
turned out to be right, but I backed a loser all the same. Monday saw Australia’s Silver Lake
Resources (SLR.ax) announce it had bought the credit facility BNP Paribas held on HRT and
these bullet points from this Australian news media (16) give us the quick’n’dirty overview:
Silver Lake Resources (SLR) has purchased the credit facilities provided by BNP Paribas to
Harte Gold for the Sugar Zone mine in Canada
The facilities include a US$41.3 million (A$57 million) non-revolving term facility and a US$22
million (A$30 million) revolving facility
Both facilities are fully drawn with an outstanding interest of US$2.32 million (A$4.4 million)
Silver Lake intends to work with Harte Gold to provide the best opportunity for the Sugar Zone
mine
So with BNPP out and SLR in, the new entity will try to reach a friendly deal. However it also
has the power to trigger default if it feels it’s in its best interest, which is why we haven’t seen a
big rise in HRT’s stock price. Not yet, anyway.
For what it’s worth, I think the Aussies might try to play hardball but with New Gold (NGD) as a
large equity owner, it would probably be counter-productive in the long-term if they annoyed
NGD during their first foray into Canada. For that reason alone, I’m good about holding this
remnant loser as a side-bet and to see how things pan out.
Almost a buyer of Coast Copper (COCO.v)
I’ve been in two minds all weekend, but come today Sunday I’ve decided not to buy an opening
position in Coast Copper (COCO.v), the small copper exploreco that’s about to star its marketing
campaign on its Empire Mine Property, on Northern Vancouver Island, BC Canada and
previously featured in IKN650, dated November 7th. On that day we ran the general overview
of the stock and its trade potential, predicated on the way this stock is being set up for “The
Sizzle” by the Vancouver junior mining marketing and sales community (bless them all).
24
Since then, COCO has done roughly what was expected of it, first by announcing a small
financing and then upsizing it on November 16th to
C$1.665m (17). That should close soon and, when
it does, this company will be ready to open up the
marketing plan at its leisure. The price action has
been held back by the financing process and the
current nervous market and still offers a great entry
price, which is the reason I’ve been considering my
first open market purchase this week (before the
company takes off its self-applied brakes) but I’m
going to wait a while longer and perhaps regret the
decision. However, it’s only fair that IKN Weekly
readers know I’m on the cusp of opening a small
position in COCO.v, do with this information what
you will (and don’t be surprised when I do buy).
No word as yet on the Capstone Mining (CS.to)/Mantos Copper deal
But there will be. To date, I’ve received no pushback on the intel published on the blog a
couple of weeks ago (18), that’s just a matter of time. I don’t know exactly when the deal will
be announced, but unless there’s been last-minute cold feet, it is only a matter of time.
Minera IRL (MIRL.cse) and its mailer to shareholders
This weekend, the board of Minera IRL (MIRL.cse) sent a mailer to shareholders of Minera IRL
outlining the results of its internal inquiry, in which it has self-exonerated CEO Benavides and all
other members of staff and his personal circle of friends and family of any type of wrongdoing.
At least, that is what we are expected to believe.
This desk urges all shareholders to get a copy of the mailer and send it as part of their
deposition to the relevant market authorities, its annual auditors PKF Littlejohn LLP (link to
contact auditors here (19)) but particularly to mega mining company Rio Tinto (RTZ), owners of
over 44m shares (over 19%) of the MIRL. This weekend saw MIRL show how companies with
dirty secrets try legalese to attempt to avoid scrutiny and, ultimately, its fiduciary duty to
shareholders. There are several glaring issues in the mailer and I’m of the opinion that Chair
Pérez would not have published it in the form he did if he realized what he was doing, but
history shows that liars will always fail to cover all their tracks, there’s always something that
gives them away. In this case there are several suspicious matters, not least the way MIRL
chose Baker Tilly (Peru) as its independent auditors. Any reasonable company would not go to
the same independent bureau that it used in 2016 to investigate the same type of accusations
of wrongdoing and what’s more, even if offered the contract, Baker Tilly (Peru) should not have
accepted and under the same argument. There are quite literally dozens of auditing firms to
choose from, why go to the same one a second time and sow extra doubt? Then there’s the
lack of information given regarding the employment of Susan Gabbie, Pedro Valdez and Steve
Ngatai in the first place, as summed up by a fellow shareholder in his reply to Gerardo Perez
yesterday (he CC’d me, you can read it here (20)):
"...how many candidates did the company consider for the positions eventually filled by
Gabbie, Ngatai and Valdez? Were the positions advertised? Was a headhunter
engaged? I simply don't find it credible that the best possible candidates happened to
be people who were already friends with Mr. Diego Benavides."
The company was very selective in its disclosure in the mailer and was also quick to deflect on
the question of job titles. First it used a weak excuse to justify changing their job titles, then
went on to justify their jobs under the titles of “manager” only, the ones given to them on
September 27th. We were given information about their movements and acts as from October,
but MIRL carefully avoided all talk of the things they did and said in the period they had titles of
Chief Communications Officer, VP IR and VP Projects. The fact is, anyone can claim to be
25
“qualified” as a manager because “manager” doesn’t mean much, but to be a C-suite at VP
level a persons needs 1) qualifications 2) experience and most importantly 3) to justify those to
the relevant market authorities.
All the above offers more evidence of suspicious behaviour and motives at MIRL, if it were
needed. However, one matter now lays the whole sorry affair to rest, the house of deception of
lies created by CEO Diego Benavides and covered-up by his complicit board of directors will
now come crashing down and due to their own words. Please read this section of the mailer
sent and signed by Chair Pérez yesterday Saturday:
These are the ‘relatives’ of Diego Benavides that were the subject of your complaint,
and they are the only relatives of Mr. Benavides that work for, or worked for, our
Company. As Baker Tilly pointed out in its Report, our Company’s own policies –
which were implemented by our Company while the late Courtney Chamberlain was
still alive and the Chairman of our Company – permit the hiring of related persons. We
note that none of these three was hired by Diego Benavides, though he is certainly
aware that they were hired, and none of them report directly to him.
On the Silicon Investor board yesterday, which has become central to the Concerned
Shareholder movement, I started my post about this subject (21) with the Spanish expression
“Por la boca muere el pez”, which translates as “The fish dies by its mouth” and is similar to the
English expression on how a caught fish, if left unattended, will rot from the head first. Once
you strip away the rhetoric and spin from Chair Perez’s paragraph, we are left with undisputable
facts:
1) They admit three relatives of Diego Benavides have worked for the company
2) In no previous quarterly or annual financial statements has the company declared a Related
Party Transaction
3) This is a clear infringement of IFRS rules
4) MIRL reports under IFRS rules
Please note, this is not about who hired or did not hire the people in question (i.e the way
Pérez framed the issue), nor is it about their longevity or otherwise in the company (though
that may come back to haunt them, too). This is about public financial statements and IFRS
rules, which can be found on this link at the IFRS website (22) and I’m now going to bore you
with an extended extract from the page on the International Accounting Standard (IAS) rule 24
regarding Related Party Disclosure (RPD) and Related Party Transactions (RPT):
The objective of IAS 24 is to ensure that an entity’s financial statements contain the disclosures necessary to draw
attention to the possibility that its financial position and profit or loss may have been affected by the existence of related
parties and by transactions and outstanding balances, including commitments, with such parties.
A related party is a person or an entity that is related to the reporting entity:
A person or a close member of that person’s family is related to a reporting entity if that person has control,
joint control, or significant influence over the entity or is a member of its key management personnel.
An entity is related to a reporting entity if, among other circumstances, it is a parent, subsidiary, fellow
subsidiary, associate, or joint venture of the reporting entity, or it is controlled, jointly controlled, or significantly
influenced or managed by a person who is a related party.
A related party transaction is a transfer of resources, services or obligations between a reporting entity and a related
party, regardless of whether a price is charged. If an entity has had related party transactions during the periods
covered by the financial statements, IAS 24 requires it to disclose the nature of the related party relationship as well as
information about those transactions and outstanding balances, including commitments, necessary for users to
understand the potential effect of the relationship on the financial statements.
IAS 24 requires an entity to disclose key management personnel compensation in total and by category as defined in
the Standard.
This is not a small thing, ladies and gentleman readers; As any accountant worth their salt
knows, it’s the type of rule you learn in your freshman year and then apply assiduously to any
public financial statement. Non-compliance with IAS24 is a grave infraction of IFRS rules and
means any third party auditor cannot sign off on the annual financials. That is the situation we
have today at MIRL; Perhaps CEO Benavides thought he could get away with not declaring
26
RPTs because only the Chair and the CFO sign off on the financials, that is not the rule and not
the case (note “…or significant influence over the entity or is a member of its key management
personnel …” above, the rule is crystal clear). We could then debate as to whether MIRL should
or should not have declared RPTs before Diego Benavides became CEO of Minera IRL Ltd in
2016, but from that point until 2021 it really is an open-and-shut case: Yesterday Saturday,
Minera IRL admitted for the first time that three relatives of its CEO had received (in fact, at
least one continues to receive) payments from the company, but at no point were they declared
in any quarterly or annual financial statement. And that, ladies and gents, is very naughty
indeed. Por la boca muere el pez.
From this point, MIRL may try to argue whether the payments were material or not so let us
pre-empt that conversation a little:
Marco Arevalo provided and provides legal counsel to MIRL. Unless he is only advising
on frivolous matters that’s material, period.
As for Patricia Kent and Felipe Benavides, we do not know the frequency or amount of
their payments from the mailer yesterday, but according to IFRS they must be disclosed
on a quarterly basis and in dollar terms. That means MIRL must at least tell the market
and accounting authorities (and should tell us the shareholders, too). If, as one may
suspect, these payments were frequent and over a long period of time (Felipe
Benavides from 2007, Patricia Kent from 2014, Marco Arevalo from 2018) that alone
would qualify them as material.
With the grave accounting and financial disclosure deficiencies now explained, we return to
what we the shareholders can do about it and here’s a list:
Vote against the board and management at the upcoming AGM (natch)
Inform IFRS
Inform the CSE market authorities, who will then be obliged to CTO the company
Inform the annual auditor PKF Littlejohn LLP, who then cannot possibly sign off the
2021 annual financials and must insist that all previous financial that included RPTs to
these three people are re-stated
Inform Rio Tinto and, for what it’s worth, this is probably the best idea to get us on the
path to our ultimate objective of adding shareholder value.
Other (you may have a better idea)
It’s not even necessary to be a lawyer in order to see the glaring holes in the MIRL position,
however RTZ has all the legal firepower one could ever need and more besides. What’s
particularly unfortunate for the now obviously complicit board of directors at Minera IRL is that
in 2020, RTZ tried a similar type of legal covering of tracks on its own shareholders! We refer
readers to the infamous Juukan Gorge scandal, which eventually cost the CEO at the time his
job (23) in September 2020. Here’s the RTZ dedicated page on Juukan Gorge (24) and here’s a
quote from the new CEO, there for all to see:
We know that we cannot change the past. But we can continue to seek out, listen to and respect
different voices and perspectives, to ensure that in the future, cultural heritage sites of
significance are treated with the care they deserve. And the changes we make should improve,
over time, our engagement with Indigenous and First Nations communities in every region where
we operate worldwide. This is the legacy we aim to create, together.”
Jakob Stausholm, Chief Executive
Plenty about RTZ’s change in attitude toward CSR on that page, too. That’s why RTZ is now as
hot as it is on this type of matter and why those of you who make a deposition to RTZ will be in
for a pleasant surprise, as its whistleblower system has been completely re-vamped after the
scandal and is both user-friendly and responsive. Several MIRL shareholders have reported to
this desk about getting positive feedback from the system in the last seven days, there are
human beings on the other end who truly do read and respond. Find RTZ’s whistleblower link
here (25) and here (26).
As noted on the blog yesterday Saturday while sharing a copy of the mailer (27), even the lapse
27
of fiduciary duty that started this ball rolling back in August is still glaring at us, i.e. the
continued presence of Gabbie, Valdez and Ngatai that shows the nature of the complicity
between board and C-suite management. That alone would be enough for a competent board
focused on its fiduciary responsibilities to have dismissed CEO Benavides with cause months
ago, instead, the pretence continues and while we should not have expected anything less than
an attempted whitewashing (this board populated by lawyers who are also personal friends of
CEO Benavides), they seem not to have understood how much trouble they are in already and
want more. They shall have more, as frankly they would have been better off remaining quiet
than publishing their legal sophistry of this weekend. Finally, as for “independent auditor” Baker
Tilly (Peru), they need to explain how the chair of the company they investigated can write
something like this…
Baker Tilly invested roughly 300 man-hours over a period of three weeks, at a
considerable cost to the Company. We have today received their confidential report,
and I am pleased to inform you that they, too, have concluded that all allegations are
unfounded.
I am quite sure that before this scandal is over, Baker Tilly International will have asked some
pointed questions to Baker Tilly (Peru). The local branch will surely fall back on the statement
used in their Comfort Letter, by stating they were merely charged with investigating allegations
made via the MIRL ethics hotline. That being the case, I strongly urge shareholders to submit
the new information in this note today to the MIRL Ethics Hotline. It will give Baker Tilly (Peru),
Noles Monteblanco & Assoc and Señor Guillermo A. López a final chance to make some money
off us, all while covering their collective backs before their world comes crashing down.
Yours sincerely, "a blogger".
Conclusion
IKN653 is done, we end with bullet points:
There’s finally real light at the end of the tunnel for the long-suffering shareholders of
Minera IRL (MIRL.cse). By their own words and admission, the current C-suite is guilty
of financial reporting discrepancies and the board continues to show collusion with its
CEO, instead of acting as it should have a long time ago. It’s now time to take these
irrefutable facts to the proper authorities who can make these people answer the
questions they refuse to address. The biggest mistake made by the people running
Minera IRL was to treat their shareholders with contempt. They will now pay.
Today’s edition doesn’t touch on the way forward for Minera IRL. For what it’s worth,
my two cents Rio Tinto included in some way, shape or form but whoever or whatever,
it’s long past time that adults were given the keys to that company and put in charge.
For my part, I’ve had to spend way too much time and neurons on what’s ultimately a
$20m market capper with a bunch of issues, so with its bad deeds now on show for all
to see, I hope to be able to reduce my time on the company going forward.
Eyes on Discovery Silver (DSV.v) this week as it’s about to deliver the much-anticipated
PEA. Last week’s 3q21 financials came in nicely and show plenty of real activity and
progress, we like that. My only silver play, bring on the news!
Business in the 21st century needs more people like Roy Sebag and I hope one day
you’ll join me in sponsoring his company, Mene Inc (MENE.v). Smart, honest and willing
to learn by mistakes as well as lead the way, Sebag is a world-level CEO in the making.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stocks are Minera Alamos (MAI.v) and
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v). Flash updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best, Mark
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Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2021/11/schedule-for-week-of-november-28-2021.html
(2) https://mene.com/world-of-mene/investor-relations/q3-2021
(3) https://discoverysilver.com/news/discovery-reports-q3-2021-financial-results-and-update/
(4) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uyt12Q5mMPc
(5) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s35rVw1zskA
(6) https://www.icsg.org/
(7) https://www.chakanacopper.com/news/2021/chakana-intersects-10m-with-15.48-g-t-gold-1.27-copper-and-82.4-g-t-
silver-18.50-g-t-au-eq-or-12.09-cu-eq-within-237m-of-1.74-g/
(8) https://finance.yahoo.com/news/contact-gold-closes-first-tranche-123000324.html
(9) https://iknnews.com/in-the-ikn-weekly-this-weekend-24/
(10) https://www.cooperativa.cl/noticias/pais/politica/presidenciales/encuesta-cadem-anuncia-empate-estadistico-entre-
kast-y-boric-ambos/2021-11-22/084309.html
(11) https://www.biobiochile.cl/noticias/nacional/chile/2021/11/28/partido-progresista-de-me-o-confirma-respaldo-a-
gabriel-boric-de-cara-a-la-segunda-vuelta.shtml
(12) https://www.eldinamo.cl/pais/2021/11/28/encuesta-pulso-ciudadano-arroja-triunfo-de-boric-sobre-kast-en-segunda-
vuelta/
(13) https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/11/23/nicaragua-arrests-former-oas-ambassador-critic-of-ortega
(14) http://ntrzacatecas.com/2021/11/26/a-nombre-de-semarnat-piden-firmas-en-oaxaca-contra-minera-cuzcatlan/
(15) https://imparcialoaxaca.mx/policiaca/558920/asesinan-a-ingeniero-en-san-jose-del-progreso/
(16) https://themarketherald.com.au/silver-lake-resources-asxslr-buys-credit-facilities-from-harte-gold-2021-11-22/
(17) https://coastcoppercorp.com/news-releases/coast-copper-announces-increase-of-non-brokered-financing-to-
1.665m/
(18) https://iknnews.com/the-capstone-cs-to-rumour-is-true/
(19) https://www.pkf-l.com/contact-us/
(20) https://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=33593414
(21) https://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=33593584
(22) https://www.ifrs.org/issued-standards/list-of-standards/ias-24-related-party-disclosures/
(23) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juukan_Gorge
(24) https://www.riotinto.com/en/news/inquiry-into-juukan-gorge
(25) https://app.convercent.com/en-us/LandingPage/60732c5c-fb3c-e811-80e2-000d3ab6ebad
(26) https://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=33584898
(27) https://iknnews.com/the-minera-irl-mirl-cse-attempted-whitewash/
29
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Ago-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Set-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Ene-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Set-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Ene-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Set-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Ago-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Abr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Set-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Abr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Set-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
30
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-ago-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-ene-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-abr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-abr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-ene-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-ene-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-abr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-abr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
31
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
32