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The IKN Weekly
Week 652, November 21st 2021
Contents
This Week: Trade heads-up, Regarding Akiba Leisman, In Today’s Edition, US Thanksgiving.
Fundamental Analysis: Buying Palamina Corp (PA.v).
Stocks to Follow: Minera Alamos (MAI.v), Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v), Altiplano (APN.v) Copper
Mountain (CMMC.to), Argonaut Gold (AR.to), Great Bear (GBR.v), Mene Inc (MENE.v).
Copper Basket: Overview, C3 Metals (CCCM.v).
Producer Basket: Overview.
Tiny Dogs: Overview, Constantine Metal (CEM.v), Aston Bay Holdings (BAY.v), Contact Gold
(C.v), Warrior Gold (WAR.v).
Regional Politics: Chile votes, Peru: The Prime Minister attempts to close four mines.
Market Watching: Selling Royal Road Minerals (RYR.v), Fortuna Silver (FSM) (FVI.to) is wide
open to a class action suit, The Precious Metals Summit PMSE(V), Harte Gold (HRT.to) brief
update, Capstone Mining (CS.to) to buy Mantos, Minera IRL (MIRL.cse): We await the AGM
materials on Tuesday.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
Trade heads-up
As usual and so nobody misses them in the rush, a top-of-the-shop heads-up and this edition
includes two planned trades:
1) With regret and through no fault of the company, I am selling my position in Royal
Road Minerals (RYR.v) in the coming days. Please see the lead ‘Market Watching’ note
for details.
2) I am a buyer of Palamina Corp (PA.v) in the coming days. Details in today’s main
Fundamentals section.
One small note before moving on, however; Though the two trades means The IKN Weekly
stays inside (at) our normal, self-imposed maximum number of open positions, the timing of
the two trades is coincidental. I decided to open a position in PA.v (around
Wednesday/Thursday) before the decision to sell RYR.v happened (late Friday evening).
Regarding Akiba Leisman
A message to the person who is forwarding my work to Akiba Leisman. You have a choice:
 Desist immediately
 Pay double
 Step forward and admit it, I will unsubscribe you in a heartbeat
As part of this weekend’s DD, I made contact with the CEO of Nicaragua-exposed junior miner
Mako Mining (MKO.v). As the mail exchange progressed he began to boast about receiving my
work for free, telling me it gets forwarded to him by my ”loyal subscriber base” (his words not
1

mine, for obvious reasons), basically to try to rile me. Nice man. The boxed statement that
appears in every edition of The IKN Weekly…
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
…means something, ladies and gentlemen readers, it is not a joke. This is not a hobby, it’s my
business and if you undermine it your subscription to The IKN Weekly is a net negative to me,
not a positive. It’s not just the money, either, I have enough to deal with on the weekends
without having to field snarky mails from the likes of Leisman. Hang your head in shame,
whoever you may be.
In Today’s Edition
 Plenty of meat on the bone in this week’s edition, with the main event my decision to
buy into Palamina Corp (PA.v), currently drilling and exploring in the Puno district of
South Peru. This stock is cheap as chips compared to what it has, let alone what it
might have and comes with a clear near-term catalyst. Buying in the next 48 hours.
 A plague on Daniel Ortega! That godless individual has forced me to sell one of the best
explorecos in Latin America. See ‘Market Watching’ for the reasons behind the decision
to take profits on Royal Road Minerals (RYR.v).
 As I started to get into the weeds of the Fortuna Silver (FSM) (FVI.to) mess, it became
apparent just how much trouble this company is now in. What started as an intention
to write a brief follow-up note on the news broken to the English-speaking North a
couple of weeks ago turned into a lengthy piece, covering several aspects of the mess
they’ve made of CSR in Mexico.
 Lots more besides, including the fact that Minera Alamos (MAI.v) and Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v)
are still the best two ideas I have for you. RIO.v had a good week, MAI had a sadly
predictable one, both are still great places in which to park your cash.
US Thanksgiving
One of the best holidays ever devised by any country (or better said “countries”, it’s only
correct to include Canada’s of a few weeks ago), this desk hopes you enjoy your turkey and
trimmings, US readers of The IKN Weekly. Also, please remember that US markets go through
their normal limited trading week around Thanksgiving and, as the US capital markets affect all
the others, please plan your trades accordingly.
No big intro this week. Though I’m tempted to rant on inflation (again), there’s plenty of other
stuff to get though. Less theory and more reality, let’s get started.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Buying Palamina Corp (PA.v)
This isn’t going to be a long note (you’ll be happy to know), but its brevity shouldn’t distract
from the fact that I plan to buy shares in Palamina Corp (PA.v) in the coming days and believe
it offers an excellent risk/reward opportunity. Mentioned for the first time on these pages in
IKJN652 last weekend, PA.v is the brainchild of Andrew Thomson, who came to the company
after successfully developing and selling his previous junior Soltoro to Agnico (AEM) in 2015. His
initial attraction was sparked by the exploration potential of the denominated “Puno Orogenic
Gold Belt”, which includes deposits such as Minera IRL’s Ollachea and the Crucero property sold
by Lupaka Gold (LPK.v) to GoldMining SA (GOLD.v) but, even after all these years, is still
chronically under-explored.
2

Via Palamina Corp and his other company in the area, the spun-out Winshear Gold (WINS.v) in
which PA holds 19.5% ownership, CEO Thomson and his team have secured large concession
areas in this highly prospective zone and can genuinely be considered to have a first-mover
advantage in one of the least explored and most attractive geological zones in Peru (which
basically implies South America as well). Here below is a map from the company’s literature and
today, rather than offer up a host of links we give you the main homepage (1) and are done.
From there, please check out the latest corporate presentation and in particular, the dedicated
page on its flagship “Usicayos” project (or see the foot of this note):
Today we get straight to the point: The vital element of this trade and the reason why I am
now a buyer is its improved CSR. This desk watched in 2018 as several newsletters
recommended the stock to their readership, only to blow their money on the results of share
price inaction and opportunity cost because quite simply, those writers did not know any better.
As noted in the brief overview on Palamina last weekend in IKN651, the company has been
operating in the area since 2017 and the key subjects I needed to cover with CEO Thomson
during our 1-on-1 during last week’s Precious Metals Summit PMSE(V) were the details on its
efforts made on the ground and with the community. That’s because for a long while, PA.v did
a mediocre job of its community relations and got nowhere with locals, who were rightfully
suspicious of the way in which new companies were moving in on the area and then trying to
impose their agendas. However, PA was by far from the worst in the area, other companies
made things even worse. Instead of listening to locals and doing it the right way, companies
such as Lupaka Gold (LPK) at Crucero ruined relationships with community members and key
local land-holding families by playing “the big Lima boss”. When that didn’t work they tried
strong-arm legal tactics, civil and criminal actions and suits when local families and landowners
refused to bow to their will (a strange but true echo of something happening around Minera IRL
this very weekend, but that is merely coincidence). I don’t mind naming names either, this
“community relations” strategy was used by LPK country manager Carlos Yrigoyen (alumni of
Lima’s most famous private fee-paying school) and caused so many issues through arrogance
and outright unalloyed racism (no other word), that LPK was literally driven off the property by
irate locals. The spill-over caused bad blood to spread to other companies and for a while, back
in 2018 as I mocked Palamina on the open blog for promising and failing to get its social license
for the Coasa project, not so far down the same watershed hill.
Fortunately, last week’s meeting demonstrated to my satisfaction that PA has learned from its
own lesser mistakes as well the more serious ones of others that had by that time affected the
entire region. The company stepped back, changed its CSR team and attitude and went about
repairing the damage. It took time to get to the point where PA.v could resume formal
exploration of its properties, but come late 2019 they had done enough good work to be
allowed back in by the communities. Then Covid-19 happened and another delay was added to
3

the timeline, but that can be forgiven and in August 2020 we saw a clear breakthrough when
PA announced it was back on the ground, building a camp and re-starting formal exploration
work under its new VP Geology, William McGuinty (fwiw I hear only good things about him).
Then came 2021 and a series of news releases (see the company page) that showed Palamina
was finally a live prospect. We will leave its interest in Winshear Gold (WINS.v) and what they
are doing for another day and report, this trade should remain open on these pages for long
enough to go into the details and show other aspects of value to be unlocked later. Today we
are about the near-term catalysts and what matters to PA and our money is the following:
 In May 2021, PA received its drilling permits from the government of Peru. That simply
could not have happened without local approval.
 In the same month May 2021, PA announced a C$3m raise that was upsized to C$5m,
for working cap and to pay the drillers, via a share placement of 20m units at 25c (unit
= share + whole warrant at a 40c strike). Yes those whole warrants are not perfect,
but it gets a pass.
 The placement closed in June, then PA announced a name change of the project from
Coasa to Usicayos, a move (quote NR) “…in keeping with the wishes and consent of
local community leadership.” Another sign of good blood, I was now attentive.
 Then on September 30th, PA announced the drills were turning on the first three holes.
Those are the right things happening in the right order and, according to CEO Thomson last
week, two of the three holes in its initial program are now in the box and the company will
either announce those very soon, or wait a while for the third and announce them all together.
This is why I am buying Palamina now, as not only is it in a prime zone for exploration stage
junior mining activity, but the next catalyst is at-hand.
For those who want more on Usicayos without going to the website, below I have (literally)
copypasted the overview information on the project from the website, along with one more
map of the region. I’m not trying to claim undue knowledge and today this note leans fully on
the geology supplied by the company, as my decision to buy PA tomorrow Monday (or Tuesday,
but I will be in soon) is predicated on its proximity to first drill results and the fact that it has
done the legwork and got the local onside. It’s also in good financial shape and while today’s
isn’t about the financials, we should note at least the basics. Assets look like this…
PA.v: Assets
5.5
5
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
4
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 tse12q3 tse12q4
C$m
fixed
other current
cash & eq
source: Company filings
…and we can see how the company has been running on a shoestring while it got its CSR into
shape. Once that was in order, they moved to fund the structure and now we find out whether
the investors who were keen to upsize the 2021 financing were right or wrong. Liabilities are so
tiny I’m not even showing you today, that means the cash you see in the above chart is
basically its working capital. Also interesting is that black blob appearing in 2q21, $350k in “pre-
paid expenses” which is this:

Goldspot (SPOT.v) has recently shown strong results at other projects, most recently in its re-
working of zones around Pretium’s VoK that managed to return ultra-high-grade hits where
previous campaigns had failed. Seeing this technology company involved with PA.v is an extra
reason to like this stock as we wait for its first drill numbers. Meanwhile a look at the P+L
shows how they spend the cash:
C$m PA.v: Costs breakdown other
prof. fees
1 share-based paym
0.9 IR
0.8 salaries/mgmt fees
Exp&Eval
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
1q182q183q184q181q192q193q194q191q202q203q204q201q212q21
source: company filings
No column there reaches C$1m, this is a small company. Here’s the same information, but with
the Exploration and Evaluation line item removed to see how the small cash numbers have
changed over the quarters:
C$m PA.v: Costs breakdown o p t r h o e f. r fees
0.5 (Ex exploration/eval) share-based paym
0.45 IR
0.4 salaries/mgmt fees
0.35
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
1q182q183q184q181q192q193q194q191q202q203q204q201q212q21
source: company filings
We can see the effects of the unsuccessful first pass moves in 2018, then the way the company
closed up shop until it had its CSR house in order. We also see three larger share based
payments awards, then a smaller ($26k) one in 2q21 before the current campaign began.
That’s management taking shares instead of cash and that’s good. The company has a
parsimonious attitude that borders on the skinflint (wonderful), the top management are here
for the share price appreciation and not for the cash salary which is also optimum from a retail
perspective and what’s more, until very recently, their IR budget was pared down to zero. No
bones about it, I simply love to see that in 2021.
I am not privy to any inside information or even hints of what PA has found in its first drill
campaign, which shouldn’t surprise anyone who knows Andrew Thomson his character. He may
have made errors when moving into Puno and Peru in the original years of PA, but his
reputation for integrity and doing things the right way comes before him and if you want
evidence, consider that not any old junior manages to sell to the likes of Agnico. With my
purchase this coming week I’m taking a risk on the drillbit as much as anyone else and if you
the reader of these words follow me in, you are taking the same risk. This is exploration-stage
junior mining, it’s a drillbit trade, they don’t come higher risk than that. However the share
structure…
5

100 PA.v: Shares Out
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
6
71q2 71q3 71q4 81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4
source: company filings
serahs
fo
snoillim
With 65.285m shares out and the $0.27 share price of PA this weekend, this company is a
CAD$17.6m market capper, the right size to produce tremendous upside leverage if they hit
something good. Even if we add in the 20m warrants at 40c, that’s still only $23m fully loaded.
Bottom line: I am a buyer of Palamina Corp (PA.v) in the next few days and it will take its
place on the IKN Weekly ‘Stocks to Follow’ list as from next weekend. I leave you with that
copypasted information on Usicayos, shamelessly ripped from the company website:
X
The Usicayos Gold Project is located north of the town of Usicayos which is a 4 hour
drive and 150 km north west of the city of Juliaca via paved and gravel roads. Juliaca
is a local economic hub which hosts a domestic airport as well as many services which
can support exploration at Usicayos. Palamina has a field office / core storage facility
in Juliaca. Palamina’s field once in JJuliaca is located 800m from Certimin’s prepratory
assay lab.
Elevations at Usicayos range from 2,800 to 4,700 metres. Access to the project is
along dirt roads from the towns of Usicayos and Coasa to several points within the
claim block. From these points, exploration is undertaken on foot or by horse along
river valleys or footpaths to access mineralized targets. Due to the elevation, rock
exposure is generally excellent as the property sits above the tree line with sharp
rocky ridges at the highest elevations, which give way to high alluvial terraces and
narrow canyons at lower elevations.
Geology
The Usicayos property captures a 22 km long section of deformation corridor hosting
numerous discrete shear zones. These are believed to be intimately associated with
the extension of regional shear structures controlling gold mineralization at the

Crucero gold project located 4.5 km south of the Usicayos Project’s south-eastern
boundary. At Usicayos, Palamina has identified 10 geochemical anomalies. The Veta,
Cayos & Veta NE zones are the highest priority targets to date and have been selected
for drill testing.
Lithology, structure, sulphide mineralization and intrusive bodies similar to those
identified at Ollachea have been identified at Usicayos Shear zones are concentrated
along relatively weak horizons, especially along organic-rich black shales principally of
the Late-Silurian/Early Devonian Ananea Formation.
Veta, Cayos & Veta NE Gold Discovery Zones:
Geological mapping, surface and channel sampling has resulted in the discovery of a
2.4 km by 500 m anomalous gold trend made up of the Veta, Cayos & Veta NE Zones.
These zones are located on the southwest flank later intrusion into the Ananea
formation. Four sites hosting visible native-gold hosted in shale horizons have now
been discovered by prospecting where no historic mining has taken place. Selective
sampling has returned up to 620 g/t Au (19.9 oz/t Au) gold in the Veta Zone from an
outcropping quartz vein; continuous channel sampling has returned up to 30.5 g/t Au
over 3 m in the Cayos Zone; and continuous channel sampling has returned up to 90.3
g/t Au over 1.3 m in the Veta NE Zone. These results, along with heliborne geophysical
survey work and a comprehensive structural study completed have played an
important role in defining the Veta, Cayos & Veta NE Zones as priority drill target
areas.
Stocks to Follow
Gold dropped one percent, copper dipped over 20c/lb by midweek, only to recover nearly all
the loss, the GDX dropped 3.2%, the GDXJ dropped 4.3%. In other words, a rocky week for
miners of all sizes and our Stocks to Follow list was not immune, though some stocks managed
to push back and lighten the load.
So to the count and there were just four winners (RIO.v, SMD.v, MIRL.cse, MENE.v) and two
stocks remained unchanged (SMD.v, AUL.v), which means nine losers and while most of those
were small, the hits taken to Discovery Silver (DSV.v down 10.4%), Trilogy (TMQ down 8.8%),
Copper Mountain (CMMC.to down 6.5%) and Minera Alamos (MAI.v down 4.8%) changed my
net wealth, due to either the size of the percentage loss or the size of my investment. To the
upside, Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v up 10.9%) and to a lesser extent Mene Inc (MENE.v up 9.1%) helped
lighten a week that was a net loss to my virtual back pocket.
We currently have 15 open positions, our self-imposed maximum of stocks held and covered at
any given time. The headcount hasn’t changed since last week, still nine stocks are in the green
and six in the red.
7

company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.60 185.7% $1.14 tgt Aug'20, #1 idea
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v STR BUY C$0.83 22-Apr-18 C$0.71 -14.5% $1.30 1st tgt, building now
Recommended stocks (In order of preference)
Copper Mountain CMMC.to STR BUY C$3.42 18-Jun-21 C$3.46 1.2% Top value Cu play, overweight
Argonaut Gold AR.to STR BUY C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$3.80 28.8% Vcheap on Magino,now moving
Discovery Silver DSV.v STR BUY C$1.77 24-Oct-21 C$1.99 12.4% A serious Ag play, big&cheap
Trilogy Metals TMQ BUY U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$1.77 -3.8% Cu for 2021, stalled
QC Copper&Gold QCCU.v BUY C$0.26 25-Apr-21 C$0.325 25.0% Now drilling. Easy hold
Strategic Metals SMD.v BUY C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.35 -16.7% Canadian land bet/Value trap?
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v SPEC BUY C$0.68 16-May-21 C$0.66 -2.9% Promo begins Q4
Altiplano Metals APN.v BUY C$0.31 17-Sep-21 C$0.275 -11.3% Cheap entry, about to re-rate
Royal Road Min. RYR.v SELLING C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.315 103.2% Sadly, must sell
Great Bear Res GBR.v BUY C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$21.66 36.8% Barrick now suitor, M&A play
Aurelius Min. AUL.v hold C$0.75 28-Jun-20 C$0.35 -53.3% has until its 43-101 to improve
Minera IRL MIRL.cse hold C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.085 -56.4% CEO change will move stock
Long-term non-mining hold
Mene Inc. MENE.v LT Hold C$0.68 6-Dec-20 C$0.80 17.6% LT bet, adding slowly
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Min NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Sep-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
CartierResources ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
2015 to 2020 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on some of our covered stocks:
Minera Alamos (MAI.v): We refer readers to the note made last week, that pointed out Sean
Roosen may have backed off temporarily from his wholesale dumpage of MAI shares, but there
was no guarantee it was over. The seller was back last week, sitting on the ask, liquidating
regularly and the chilling effect took hold quickly. However, company President Doug Ramshaw
continued to buy large chunks and I agree 100% with his position, he’s a man that can look
beyond the next couple of weeks or months, but let’s be clear about MAI in what’s left of 2021;
ODev still has over 50m shares left to sell and it’s not afraid of doing it piecemeal, as such we
longs will have to exercise some patience until the selling is done.
The good news is, once it’s over this thing could rocket in a neck-breaker rally that we’d be
talking about for years to come. Top Pick confirmed, Sean Roosen should worry less about
naming his companies after alcoholic drinks, more about the best quality equities he owns.
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v): A good week which made me think of the abject stupidity of capital
8

markets. First RIO announces Wheaton (WPM) is intending to invest $50m, explains that WPM
has done all its technical DD and is happy, then announces the paperwork, then tells us the
timeline of payments, and in all that time, we don’t get a sniff of positive reaction. Then, when
the NR hits on a Tuesday in November (2)
RIO2 ANNOUNCES SIGNING OF US$50 MILLION GOLD STREAM WITH
WHEATON PRECIOUS METALS ON FENIX GOLD
the market reacts with, “Oh look! WPM is investing $50m! That’s interesting!” and bids up the
stock in a down week for the market.
Did they not believe the actors involved? Is Randy Smallwood that capricious? Last week was a
welcome move of course, but it was also a window on the advantages retail investors can find
in these trade set-ups. A fat bank account does not imply that a genius is in control of it.
Altiplano Metals (APN.v): We got the expected type of Q3 production and sales numbers
from APN and the market yawned, but as this isn’t the reason we are long, that’s okay. A small
position that should pick up as from 2022.
Copper Mountain (CMMC.to): One of the stocks reporting potential or actual supply
disruption from the heavy storm that hit the Pacific North West last week, if a mining stock
price gets hit by the weather then so be it. We’d surely like to, but we do not open risk-free
trades and mining is like this sometimes. This desk followed the problems closely and while
things were rough, we’re not art catastrophic, paradigm-shift level. Holding happily, this
company has way too much to be priced this low.
Argonaut Gold (AR.to): AR continued its breakout, made a move above C$4 during the
week, but then sellers arrived and pushed it toward the test level. That’s healthy action (as long
as the breakout holds) and nobody should begrudge profit-takers in this market. Though
eventually posting a 3c loss on the week, this desk is very happy with the way AR is trading.
Great Bear Resources (GBR.v): More positive action in this long position, but in GBR’s case
9

the profits were taken earlier in the week and the buyers showed up later. As GBR is now the
most obvious, nailed-on M&A candidate in Canada (in my opinion at least), expect the value to
be bought by larger instos as they wait for the print and for Barrick.
Discovery Silver (DSV.v): People wanted me to buy a silver stock, so I found a great one.
But the same people also want sound investments in the silver space without much volatility.
Sorry, it doesn’t work like that. While DSV dumped hard under $2.00, I merely shrugged my
shoulders, as last week is just the prelude to the real catalyst at DSV and we should get the
PEA at any moment. I’m betting on my spreadsheet calculations, that this PEA is going to blow
the market’s head off. Finally, this coming Tuesday, CEO Taj Singh is pone of four people on
this webinar our of 6ix (3) entitled “Silver: High-Tech & Monetary Metal - With Peter Krauth,
Silver Stock Investor” and I expect it to be worth my time. Locked and loaded.
Mene Inc (MENE.v): Eyes on the Q3 financials, which should arrive on SEDAR this week.
We’ve had nothing official from the company since August 31st, that is about to change and I fo
one will be looking for clues and guidance on the current Q4 period, as the Northern
hemisphere holiday season is by far the most important for jewellery sales. I still think this
stock could be the one that provides The IKN Weekly its greatest long-term legacy. I didn’t add
any last week, but the strategy of adding small tranches remains in place and I reserve the
right to do so at any given moment.
The Copper Basket
After forty-six weeks of 2021, The Copper Basket shows a gain of 27.87% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/21 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Solaris Res SLS.to 6.08 107.53 1428.00 13.28 118.4%
2 Copper Mtn CMMC.to 1.81 207.5 717.95 3.46 91.2%
3 Oroco Res OCO.v 1.85 192.584 494.94 2.57 38.9%
4 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.25 87.737 343.05 3.91 20.3%
5 Western Copper WRN.to 1.57 135.798 244.44 1.80 14.6%
6 Amerigo Res ARG.to 0.80 181.79 243.60 1.34 67.5%
7 Excelsior Min. MIN.to 1.12 273.585 116.27 0.425 -62.1%
8 Regulus Res. REG.v 1.07 101.85 112.04 1.10 2.8%
9 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.455 125.24 82.66 0.66 45.1%
10 C3 Metals CCCM.v 0.115 438.56 81.13 0.185 60.9%
11 Doré Copper DCMC.v 1.00 53.304 43.18 0.81 -19.0%
12 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.45 68.281 42.33 0.62 37.8%
13 Chakana Cop PERU.v 0.60 111.41 40.44 0.363 -39.5%
14 Chibougamau CBG.v 0.165 53.077 11.94 0.225 36.4%
15 US Copper USCU.v 0.105 87.53 9.63 0.110 4.8%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg 27.87%
10

An volatile week for the copper sector, that put my wholly bullish position on copper under
pressure early week, only for the metal to revert higher and finish near to where we started by
Friday’s close. As for our basket stocks,. They had a harder time with just three winners
(SLS.to, REG.v, PERU.v, ), two UNCH stocks (ARG.to, USCU.v) and ten losers (CMMC.to, OCO.v,
MIN.to, WRN.to, MARI.to, CCCM.v, ALDE.v, DCMC.v, ECU.v, CBG.v). The saving grace was that
those ten losers were mostly small or small-ish drops, with only Doré Copper (DCMC.v down
11.0%), Excelsior (MIN.to down 10.5%) and Chibougamau (CBG.v down 10.0%) breaking the
double figure percentage change to the downside.
60% The Copper Basket 2021, weekly evolution
55%
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
11
ts1
naJ
t01naJ ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7bef ht41 ts12 ht82 ht7ram ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4rpa ht11 ht81 ht52 n2yam ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6nuj ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4luj ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1gua ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5pes ht21 ht91 ht62 dr3tco ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7von ht41 ts12
source: IKN calcs
We arrive at this week’s copper chart, covering the last two weeks and we see how financial
and monetary worries drive the metal lower in the first half of last week, then reported
tightening supply in China on rule changes the main narrative for the second half. Somewhat
similar in style to the previous week, which drives a rhetorical question: If you were the biggest
end user of copper in the world and supply were running thin, would you like to sow price
concern before people realized the truth of the situation, or would you simply pay the price
demanded by the biggest suppliers?
As for this weekend’s curated comment, we go with an extended excerpt from this Reuters note
on an administrative move made by China that threatens to launch spot copper prices even
further into backwardation. Here’s the script, and check out that spike on the chart
accompanying the words below, it’s a clickbait special (4):
Nov 19 (Reuters) - Copper premiums in China have spiked to a record high as an
administrative issue over value-added tax (VAT) on imports exacerbates tight supply
amid decade-low inventories in the world's biggest consumer of the metal.
The premium for physical copper over Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE) prices
surged to 2,200 yuan ($344) a tonne on Friday, data from industry pricing and
information provider SMM showed.
That is up a massive 80% from a more than seven-year peak the previous day and
marks highest daily assessment in records going back to 2012.

Copper has recently been in backwardation on both the ShFE and the London Metal
Exchange (LME), where prices for immediate delivery are higher than for future
delivery. Copper stocks in ShFE-registered warehouses fell 8.2% from a week ago to
34,918 tonnes on Friday, the lowest since June 2009.
Compounding the tightness, China's General Administration of Customs has notified
companies, including copper importers, it would this week temporarily stop issuing VAT
invoices, three sources with knowledge of the matter said, as it seeks to defer some
tax revenue into 2022.
This could discourage buyers from importing copper, Marex Spectron broker Anna
Stablum wrote in a note, leading to less metal on the market.
Importers pay a 13% VAT deposit on refined copper, one of the sources explained,
and may be unable to claim this back for 1-1/2 months as customs will not issue
invoices with a value above 200,000 yuan until January, increasing their financing
costs.
Customs did not immediately respond to a faxed request for comment.
Stablum said the move by customs had come a month earlier than the usual end-of-
year cut-off date and was creating a cash flow problem.
"It has led to a sudden shortage of material amid an already tight market as smelters
have been threatening to ship material abroad to ease the LME tightness," she wrote.
Once again, the real world provides bang-the-table bullish for the metal, while the abstract
market frets over the direction of the US Dollar, so please be long copper because
fundamentals will out in the end. They always do. Now for the latest world copper inventory
levels, with data as usual from Chile’s Cochilco:
 World copper stocks dropped again last week, the overall total down 12,911 metric
tonnes (mt) to finish Friday at 177,425mt. Demand doesn’t cadre about the drop in
Dollar terms, it will cry out for more stock no matter what the price.
 The Shanghai SHFE managed to lose tonnages, despite there being very little left to
move out of its warehouses. Stocks dropped by 3,119mt to finish the week at
34,918mt.
 At the LME, stocks dropped another 10,425mt and closed at 89,875mt the tightest it’s
been for at least a decade. Extremely bullish, though Cancelled Warrants are down to
around 29,000mt now so there less pressure on stocks now than the 160k and above at
the start of the month.
 Comex stocks rose by 633 tonnes to close at 52,632mt. No biggie, as usual.
Here’s the Shanghai-only inventories chart and another historic low. This chart is indecently
bullish for copper.
12

Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2014 to date
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
13
31'13ceD ht9 ht81 ht72 ht5tco ht41 dn22 dr3yam ht21 ht02 ht92 ht7bef ht71 ht62 ht4peS ht31 ht92 ht9 ht81 ht72 ht5von ht41 ht52 ht01 ht91 ht82 ht6naJ ht71 ht62 ht4gua ht31 dn22 202ts1ram ht01 ht91 ht72 0202ht6ced ht41 ht52 1202ht4luj ht21 ts12
Mt Cu
|
source: Cochilco
Now for notes on just one of our basket stocks:
C3 Metals (CCCM.v): In IKN643 dated September 19th, this stock had just zoomed 40% in
ten trading days and we called BS on the move, calling it among other things, “a classic
example of a company built specifically to sell sizzle to Vancouver, a stock with no other
ambition than to make its controllers rich” and its Jasperoide target” as well as “One that got
flashy hits a decade ago, but was dropped by a serious geology team, (and) is now a flagship
project of the people who brought you PPX Mining.” As this chart shows, it’s almost back to
where it came from. Do not confuse wealth creation with wealth distribution and don’t allow
your money to be distributed.
The Producer Basket
After forty-six weeks of 2021, the Producer Basket shows a loss of 6.07% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/20 Shares out MktCap(U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 59.89 805 45.52 56.55 -5.6%
2 Barrick GOLD 22.78 1778.04 36.01 20.25 -11.1%
3 Agnico Eagle AEM 70.51 244.187 13.27 54.36 -22.9%
4 Kirkland Lake KL 41.27 267.056 11.42 42.77 3.6%
5 Kinross Gold KGC 7.34 1261.07 8.41 6.67 -9.1%
6 Endeavour Min EDV.to 29.62 252.568 6.96 33.09 11.7%
7 Pan American PAAS 34.71 210.262 5.63 26.78 -22.8%
8 B2Gold BTG 5.60 1051.697 4.64 4.41 -21.3%
9 Alamos Gold AGI 8.75 392.739 3.25 8.27 -5.5%
10 Pretium Res PVG 11.48 187.833 2.64 14.03 22.2%
Prices in U$ except EDV.to (share price in CAD$ and mkt cap in approx USD) Port. avg -6.07%

Our standard gold proxy GLD lost 1.05% and the large producer companies took their cue from
that, with all ten of our basket stocks losing ground as the air came out of the mini rally.
However, the moves were all tidal in nature rather than stock-specific as seen in the size of the
drops, with nothing more than 4.75% (NEM) and the least worst at -1.37% (EDV.to). All the
others were between 2% and 4%, a tight range and typical of what happens when big money
exits GDX/GDXJ when there’s nothing else driving the narrative.
The 2021 Producer Basket: Percentage difference between
GDX benchmark and basket (negative = IKN basket ahead)
8.0%
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
14
ts1
naJ
t01naJ ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7bef ht41 ts12 ht82 ht7ram ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4rpa ht11 ht81 ht52 n2yam ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6nuj ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4luj ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1gua ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5pes ht21 ht91 ht62 dr3tcO ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7voN ht41 ts12
source: IKN calcs, NYSE/Nasdaq/TSX data
The 2021 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
20%
comparative to GDX control
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%
ts1
naJ
t01naJ ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7bef ht41 ts12 ht82 ht7ram ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4rpa ht11 ht81 ht52 n2yam ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6nuj ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4luj ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1gua ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5pes ht21 ht91 ht62 dr3tcO ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7voN ht41 ts12
ikn
gdx control source: Google, IKN Calcs
That’s all for today, aside from a quick note to remind readers (old and new) that if you’re
looking for in-depth coverage of Tier 1 and 2 mining stocks, you’re subscribed to the wrong
publication. Much as I’d like to cover these fascinating companies more closely, just getting to
the bottom of one of them would take up all my time and leave nothing for the focus of The
IKN Weekly. This section keeps track of what’s happening at the deep end of the swimming
pool, in order to provide context for our focus on juniors. There are only 24 hours in a day.
The Tiny Dogs
After forty-six weeks of 2021, the Tiny Dogs show a gain of 21.57% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/21 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Antler Gold ANTL.v 0.205 66.365 14.93 0.225 9.8%
Aston Bay BAY.v 0.045 163.975 10.66 0.065 44.4%
Constantine Met CEM.v 0.17 45.4 26.79 0.59 247.1%
Contact Gold C.v 0.115 240.757 13.24 0.055 -52.2%
Golden Pursuit GDP.v 0.22 40 6.40 0.16 -27.3%
Manitou Gold MTU.v 0.045 230.79 13.85 0.06 33.3%
Precipitate Gold PRG.v 0.240 106.241 10.09 0.095 -60.4%
QC Copper QCCU.v 0.315 105 34.13 0.325 3.2%
Red Pine Expl RPX.v 0.400 95.806 53.65 0.56 40.0%
Warrior Gold WAR.v 0.090 91.818 6.43 0.07 -22.2%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 21.57%

This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $20m. They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a
little and allowed sub-U$20m market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, but it was a particularly depressing exercise to trawl through the whole of the TSXV and find companies
that are small enough, but with life in them. The vast majority of sub-$20m stocks are broken stocks, either
traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2020. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
The “change in tempo” reported in the Tiny Dogs in IKN651 got a big boost, but it may be a
case of luck rather than judgement. There were only three winners (BAY.v, CEM.v, RPX.v) but
two of those were big springers, with Constantine (CEM.v up 57.3%) and Aston Bay (BAY.v up
30.0%) rockets and made all the difference. Along with those, three remained unchanged (C.v,
GDP.v, MTU.v) and the other four were losers (ANTL.v, PRG.v, QCCU.v, WAR.v).
24% Tiny Dogs, 2021 weekly tracker
20%
16%
12%
8%
4%
0%
-4%
-8%
-12%
15
ts1
naJ
t01naJ ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7bef ht41 ts12 ht82 ht7ram ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4rpa ht11 ht81 ht52 n2yam ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6nuj ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4luj ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1gua ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5pes ht21 ht91 ht62 dr3tcO ht01 ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7voN ht41 ts12
source: IKN calcs, TSX data
Constantine Metal (CEM.v): Up on now news and up massively, we’ve seen this type of
spring from CEM before. I shrug my shoulders and leave this to others, it may turn out to be
under offer (the Japanese backers are there) or it might not.
Aston Bay Holdings (BAY.v): Also up bigtime, also on no news aside from the NR we
mentioned last weekend. I do not know because I didn’t hear anything (and don’t care much),
but this company has been pumped by newsletters before and that might be the case here,
too. It’0s not as if its 30% win was the high point of the week, either, as the chart (right)
shows.
If it was a newsletter pump, it got out of hand. Same sign-off as last weekend; this isn’t a stock
I’d own in a hurry, too much Jam Tomorrow and too much share dilution.

Contact Gold (C.v): Contact filed its 3q21 financials early Friday morning and the glaring
problem at the company is funds. As at September 30th C.v had C$0.713m at bank, which is
also its working capital number give or take a few thousand. That means it has burned through
C$4m or so in 2021 and needs to raise capital, which is why on October 18th it opened the
current round of financing. Normal stuff so far, but the bad news is contained in the notes:
On October 18, 2021, the Company announced a non-brokered private placement (the
"2021 Private Placement") of up to 60,000,000 units ("PP Units") at a price of $0.05 per
PP Unit (the "Placement Price") for gross proceeds of up to $3,000,000.
Each PP Unit consists of one Common Share and one half of one Common Share
purchase warrant (each whole
Common Share purchase warrant, a "2021 PP Warrant"), with each 2021 PP Warrant
entitling the holder to purchase an additional Common Share at a price of $0.075 per
share for a period of 24 months from the closing date. In the event that at any time
between four months and one day following the closing date and the warrant expiry
date, the Common Shares trade on the TSXV at a closing price which is equal to or
greater than $0.15 for a period of ten consecutive trading days, the Company may
accelerate the expiry date by giving notice to the holders thereof and in such case the
2021 PP Warrants will expire on the 30th day after the date such notice is provided.
The 2021 Private Placement is subject to regulatory approval and customary closing
conditions. There can be no assurance that the 2021 Private Placement will be
completed as proposed or at all.
We are a month into the raising and there’s no close as yet, not even on those cheap terms.
The presence of Waterton around this stock is killing investor interest, so if and when C.v closes
on the financing (whole or tranche), we need to see if Waterton is the sole or majority taker.
Contact Gold started by buying its Pony Creek property from Waterton, later converting the
debt held into shares. The result has made a bad structure even worse and we’re in danger of
seeing this company disappear into a financial black hole created by this most predatory of
lenders. No matter how good a geologist MLK may be, his failure to deliver C.v away from its
prime source of funding is now a welter burden on the company.
Warrior Gold (WAR.v): Another geologist who came to their exploreco with a stellar
reputation, only to fall victim to the Canadian capital markets’ nefarious ways is Danielle
Spethmann, but in this case her undoing is more a case of professional suicide than bad acting
from those funding the company. It was hugely disappointing to read the NR out of WAR last
week, so much for the “serious geol” image. Instead, this company has caved into the
reactionary trend of TSXV sales and marketing and is now trying the smoke’n’mirrors approach.
To wit, the way in which they publish photos of VG without assays, instead promising them
later.
Danièle Spethmann, President & CEO, stated, “We are extremely pleased with the
completion of the Fall 2021 drilling program. Our objectives were met, our diamond
drilling crews, field team and contractors performed their work effectively, efficiently
and professionally. We look forward to announcing the results in early 2022. We also
look forward to receiving data from GoldSpot’s airborne work on Warrior Gold’s
recently acquired KLC and Arnold ground, as this will provide us with the foundational
work with which to advance these properties.”
The tactics used by the BS end of the exploreco world, I expected better from this company.
Instead, they’ve drunk from the poisoned chalice of the P+D marketers and lost any credibility
left after a poor season of results. Yes, there’s gold in them thar hills but so far, it’s all
contained in skinny veins, wholly uneconomic even on napkin calculations. That didn’t stop CEO
Spethmann from trying to throw sequins in the eyes of the market, though. A poor showing, at
least we can drop WAR from the Tiny Dogs list next year without any regrets. You reap what
you sow in this world and the disdain shown for shareholders via last week’s NR speaks loudly
of failure and desperation.
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future
I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet aretrictly neutral.
16

Regional politics
Chile votes
Today Sunday, Chile votes in its first round Presidential election and the near-certainty of a
second round run-off between the Very Lefty Gabriel Boric and the Very Righty José Antonio
Kast. As Chile’s elections always go to a run-off, the main incognito will be the amount of votes
gathered by the top two and may well decided who is the favourite going into the run-off.
UPDATE: By 7pm local time tonight Sunday the first round result had already been set in stone
and now few hours later, with 93% of votes counted, Kast is on 28.1% and bits and Boric is on
25.6% and that’s enough votes counted for this write-up. Those two now go to the second
round vote slated for December 19th. The losing candidates have been getting plenty of airtime
as they admitted their defeats, due to the way they may distribute their votes. For example,
Sebastían Sichel of the Piñera government party has already said there’s no way he votes for
Boric in round two, his comments on Kast only slightly less negative. Yesterday he said
“Obviously, I think Boric is worse, but Kast’s position doesn’t fit with me in the slightest.” Sichel
received 12.6% of the vote (at my 93% count, the 100% may change slightly) and logic
suggests most of those will go to Kast, as the run-off candidate moves toward centre in the
next four weeks.
Third place went to the strange candidacy of Franco Parisi with 13% of the vote, despite the
oddity of him not even setting foot in Chile during the campaign (for legal problems…a long
story for another day). His platform is best described as “centre right populist” and I’d expect
most of his votes to move to Kast. Then come the other losers and from the Michelle Bachelet
dauphine Yasna Provoste with 11.7% on down, nearly will all tell Chile to vote for Boric as (in
the words of the influential Ricardo Lagos of PPD, “democracy is in danger” if Kast becomes
Chile’s next President). Take that how you want.
If I had to bet, I’d call Boric over Kast in round two with roughly 55% to 45% of valid votes,
not least because the apathetic stay-away voters in round one will mostly support Gabriel Boric.
The next few days will give more clarity on what to expect on December 19th but at this stage,
the Lefty Boric should be considered clear favourite to be Chile’s next President. However, those
concerned about the right losing shouldn’t parlay that into a “Sell Chile” trade call, the politics
of 2022 will be all about the Constitutional Assembly and the country’s mining industry will carry
on regardless (as noted in previous editions). Chile was, is and will remain the best place to go
mining in South America, period.
Peru: The Prime Minister attempts to close four mines
A tremendous hoo-hah has suddenly blown up in Peru, due to the decision by the country’s new
Prime Minister, Mirtha Vasquez, to make good on the closure orders for four working mines in
the country. The four mines have long been guilty of causing serious environmental issues in
their respective localities and have been subject to fines, penalties and closure orders for years,
but it’s the first time a national authority has grabbed this particular bull by the horns and made
good on the pending orders of closure. These are now small mines, either, instead they are the
Imaculada and Pallancanta mines, owned by Ares, the subsidiary of Hochschild (HOC.L), then
the privately owned Sami SAC and Apumayo, which collectively, according to Peru’s Mining
Chamber of Commerce the SNMPE, are responsible for 54,000 jobs (they count direct and
indirect employment in that number, which is a massage but also reasonably valid). Here’s
Reuters with a headline and some script:
Peru PM sparks controversy with mining sector by ruling out timeline extensions
LIMA, Nov 20 (Reuters) - Peruvian Prime Minister Mirtha Vasquez sparked a
controversy with the key mining sector on Friday night, saying a group of four mines in
the Andean Ayacucho region would not be allowed any extensions on their operational
timelines.
"This is an arbitrary measure that ignores the rule of law and its principles," said Oscar
Caipo, the president of Confiep, which groups Peru's largest corporations.
Vasquez had said the government would help broker terms for the shutdown of four
17

mines that have been affected by community protests in recent weeks.
"We will close the mines as soon as possible," Vasquez said, according to a
government news release. "There will be no extensions, whether for exploitation,
exploration or even shutdown,"
Two of them are owned by Hochschild Mining (HOCM.L); the other two are smaller
operations.
The remarks triggered a furious reaction from the mining industry on Saturday, with
executives saying that while the mines were formally scheduled to shut down soon,
they were hoping to extend those timelines.
"We don't have plans to stop operating. In fact, we expect to continue investing," said
Ignacio Bustamante, who heads Compania Minera Ares, a Hochschild subsidiary.
That report continues on this link (5). So on the one side, you have the left wing Prime Minister
of President Castillo’s cabinet who was the lawyer who defended locals against Newmont and
Yanacocha for years (and with great success). On the other, the right wing, the traditional
families of power and the business community. This is going to be a big fight and it’s already
seen a motion to impeach and “vacate” the Presidency in Congress gather enough votes for the
debate and the vote to happen.
The optics for FDI are not good, even though Vasquez and her side have been quick to point
out that the mines they are closing are bad actors, that good actor mining companies are
welcome in Peru, that the closures affect a tiny proportion of Peru’s mining sector and that she
isn’t doing anything more or less than enacting judicial edicts that have been around for a long
time. That’s not going to calm the situation at all, so expect clashes and nerves in the mining
sector in Peru once again, she didn’t help matters by using the phrase “water is more
important”, which sets Peruvian mining bosses into a rage and allows them to rant about
Communists.
The rage will pass, but with some fortune there will be enough noise from this decision by
Vasquez and the hard opposition she faces to make my entry point in Palamina Corp (PA.v)
even lower. It may also cost Vasquez her job, she’s the type of principled politico that will say
to her President “either they go or I go”, something she’s already done with Perú Libre party
head Vladimir Cerrón, whom she faced down when taking on her new job. The business and
mining sectors are howling for her blood this weekend, her response has been to tell themn
they don’t have the right to extend mines lives unilaterally. We should start wondering who will
be the next Prime Minister in Peru, meanwhile the revolving door of ministers and top
functionaries leaving the Castillo government by force (Congress picking fights at the drop of a
hat) suggests nothing of any worth is going to get done under President Castillo. Howeverr, if
Vasquez hangs around, I may be wrong.
Market Watching
Selling Royal Road Minerals (RYR.v)
"If you must panic, panic early.
Be scared when you can,
not when you have to.”
Morgan Housel
After careful thought and taking into account the developments in Nicaragua this week, I have
decided to sell my position in Royal Road Minerals (RYR.v) and reduce my exposure to
Nicaragua to zero, in practical terms. However, before any more words are spilled onto pages I
want to state clearly that this is not a decision based on the company and what it does. RYR is
a great exploreco, with a top class team and a proven successful business model (see its recent
sale or Luna Roja to Hemco for more). For what it’s worth, yesterday Saturday I informed its
CEO Tim Coughlin of this decision and while doing so, apologised (he graciously accepted my
apology). In addition, while on the subject of CEO Coughlin, he disagrees with me on this
decision and does not “want to go explaining the difference between State and Targeted
sanctions to the rest of the register” of his company, which is fair. At this point, I want to make
clear that the decision to sell a Canadian exploration stage mining company operating in
18

Nicaragua is not obligatory or forced by law, not even for US citizens. Please read the following
note carefully and don’t jump to conclusions, particularly the part about job titles and the two
people at the top of Nicaragua’s Ministry of Energy and Mines, its Minister Salvador Mansell and
Vice-Minister Estela Martínez. Make up your own mind on this, but I’m selling my exposure to
Nicaragua next week for three reasons:
 This is the first time in a long time that The USA has gone proactive on Nicaragua and,
when that ball starts rolling, it tends not to stop. The US sanctions are not State-level,
instead they are limited and targeted, but one of the targets is the Minister of Energy
and Mines.
 Nicaragua franked its new political pariah status this weekend by announcing it was
withdrawing for the Organization of American States (OAS), citing foreign meddling in
its affairs. This puts the country on a par with Venezuela for the first time among
countries of The Americas, North to South, Nunavut to Tierra del Fuego.
 I don’t need to wait and prefer to “panic first”. While I’m aware that I’ll get pushback
from other quarters, especially companies exposed to Nicaragua who will certainly try
to defend a different position, this new stance by the USA is bound to cause a chilling
effect on FDI into the country at all levels sooner or later, not just mining.
Therefore and with regret, next week I sell my only exposure to Nicaragua, now for the details
and on Tuesday November 15th, the US Department of Treasury Department (DoT) announced
the following (6):
WASHINGTON — Today, the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign
Assets Control (OFAC) designated the Public Ministry of Nicaragua (Ministerio Publico
de Nicaragua) as well as nine officials of the Government of Nicaragua in response to
the sham national elections orchestrated by President Daniel Ortega (Ortega) and Vice
President Rosario Murillo (Murillo). This action targets those who are repressing
Nicaraguans for exercising their human rights and fundamental freedoms.
Between October 2020 and June 2021, the Nicaraguan National Assembly, controlled
by Ortega and Murillo, approved six laws that facilitated the government’s repression
against the opposition and eliminated its chances in the November 2021 elections.
Several officials designated in today’s action were appointed to their government
positions by Ortega and are key supporters of the regime and its anti-democratic
policies; the officials designated today also include multiple persons implicated in
violence against peaceful protestors during Nicaragua’s 2018 demonstrations.
In so many words, The USA has finally gone proactive in its opposition to the Daniel Ortega
regime, after many years of making strong statements but allowing business to go on as usual.
The sanctions apply to Nicaragua’s Public Ministry and to nine individuals, considered members
of President Daniel Ortega’s “Inner Circle” and this is where things start to matter to us, as
those individuals include one Salvador Mansell, the country’s Minister of Energy and Mines
(MEM). Here’s the DoT blurb on him:
SALVADOR MANSELL CASTRILLO
Salvador Mansell Castrillo is the Nicaraguan Minister of Energy and Mines and is
designated for being an official of the Government of Nicaragua or for having served as
an official of the Government of Nicaragua at any time on or after January 10, 2007.
So far so political and, as things stood on Tuesday, what I and all other Nica Watchers expected
was to witness a reshuffle of titles so that another person would head up Nicaragua’s MEM.
That would allow Nicaragua’s MEM to operate as normal, no matter who was part of the inner
circle or not. However, on Friday word arrived that Daniel Ortega had taken a different route.
As most expected, Ortega named the MEM Vice-Minister Estela Martínez as the person with all
administrative functions of the MEM going forward. Previously, she shared this role along with
Salvador Mansell but as of Friday, she is now the sole signatory of all documents related to
(quote translated) "…the electricity, hydrocarbon and mining competencies of the Ministry of
Energy and Mines, as well as all documents necessary for the correct administration and
functioning of the Ministry...". However, she was not named the new Minister, instead Salvador
Mansell keeps his job at the head of MEM while Ms Martínez stays as the Vice-Minister of MEM.
Clearly, this workaround tries to avoid sanctions against Nicaragua's MEM but instead of
19

swapping job titles, Mansell stays at the top; he just doesn't have power of signatory for the
things the MEM needs to do. This puts Nicaragua's MEM in a more precarious position than
expected when the OFAC decision dropped.
On Tuesday, this desk’s reaction was to check how things might change and, assuming Mansell
would be quietly dropped, decided to remain quiet. However the Friday decision (for whatever
internal party political or "inner circle" reason) sheds a different light, as this La Prensa article
(7) explains (section translated):
"Despite the reshuffle, the dictatorship has decided to leave the title roles of The
Ministry of Energy and Mining and the INE (National Electricity Institute) in the hands of
the public servants sanctioned by The USA, which implies a challenge for international
investors with capital invested in the areas of mining and energy, taking into account
that the US regulations do not permit any direct or indirect contact with any person or
entity blocked by the OFAC."
As to what the OFAC sanctions imply, the DoT page announcing the sanctions explains. The
block type and underlining are mine:
SANCTIONS IMPLICATIONS
As a result of today’s action, all property and interests in property of these persons
thaare in the United States or in the possession or control of U.S. persons are blocked
and must be reported to OFAC. In addition, any entities that are owned, directly or
indirectly, 50 percent or more in the aggregate by one or more of such persons are
also blocked. OFAC’s regulations generally prohibit all dealings by U.S. persons
or within (or transiting) the United States that involve any property or interests in
property of blocked or designated persons.
If you prefer, here is the relevant sentence from the legal opinion of US lawyers Buckley LLP
(8), on the same point, as published Friday;
“U.S. persons are also generally prohibited from entering into transactions with the sanctioned persons.”
That was one development from the original story on Tuesday, now for another and more
broadly political one. I’ve tried to pick as neutral a source as possible, so here’s Germany’s
Deutsche Welle news agency with the story (9), you get the top of the report, link for more:
Nicaragua decides to leave OAS after election criticism
The Organization of American States (OAS), along with the EU, discredited Daniel
Ortega's election victory on November 7. The vote was highly criticized by the
international community as a "sham" vote.
Nicaragua on Friday started the process of withdrawing from the Organization of
American States after its criticism of recent elections.
Nicaraguan Foreign Minister Denis Moncada accused the regional bloc of "facilitating
the hegemony of the United States with its interventionism over the countries of Latin
America."
What did Nicaragua say?
Moncada told reporters he had sent an "official communication" to OAS General
Secretary Luis Almagro signalling Nicaragua's departure from the 35-member
organization.
He branded the OAS as "a diplomatic political forum that was born under the influence
of the United States as an instrument of interference and intervention."
The Nicaraguan foreign minister said the OAS had been involved in "repeated acts of
meddling" in his country.
Moncada added that for Nicaragua this is "unacceptable, we reject and condemn it."
When the Ortega decision to keep Mansell as head of the MEM was announced Friday, I
reached out to the CEOs of six mining companies with exposure to the country. They and their
companies will not be named. I received four replies, two from CEOs saying they were
concerned (no details, all remain anonymous), one had not heard the news (I repeated my
request for comment once they had and didn’t get one), one replied that it would not stop them
from doing business in the country. I mention this to give a feel for the range of viewpoints and
that mine is not the only one. Finally, and in international politics, the decision by Nicaragua to
withdraw from the OAS was applauded by only one other Latin American country, namely
20

Venezuela. Feel free to read that country’s view for yourself (here’s one report (10)) but I’m not
into disseminating vomit-worthy propaganda, that’s all you get.
Discussion and conclusion: This sale is with a heavy heart. Not only has RYR been a winning
trade, they also do everything the right way and, as a result, improve the lives of many people
in and around their projects in Nicaragua and Colombia. However, The IKN Weekly is not a
social support publication, it’s raison d’etre is “buy low sell high” on (mostly) junior mining
companies in (mostly) LatAm and in this case, a fatal flaw has appeared in the story thanks to
politicians and their decisions. Up to now I’ve swallowed the fact that RYR works in a
dictatorship country because the Ortega government didn’t affect the investment outlook
towards mining companies there, but the combination of the DoT decision to become proactive
and launch limited, targeted sanctions on the head of the MEM, plus the Ortega government’s
decision not to change Mansell’s job title, plus the added extra of the OAS withdrawal, means
that has changed and we’re at the thin end of the wedge.
I’m going to get flak for this call, of that I am in no
doubt. Also, please note the way RYR traded last
week, with this three month chart giving a better
perspective on the relative calm that greeted the DoT
decision on Tuesday. I was not the only one who let
it ride at that point, volume remained low and the
normal jumpy bid/asks run by RYR aside, the
trajectory of the stock price didn’t change.
I’ll wrap up by telling this audience the same thing I
told CEO Coughlin while making my grovelling
apology to him on Saturday: I’m not in the field
banging rocks, nor am I in a C-suite managing
delicate political or people situations. The IKN Weekly is part of the money end of junior mining,
money panics and panicking first is good business, even though real people hate us for it
afterwards. Royal Road (RYR.v) will be a closed position this time next week in The IKN Weekly
‘Stocks to Follow’ list. I hope to get out with my double intact, though I will not be a seller at
the opening bell on Monday.
Fortuna Silver (FSM) (FVI.to) is wide open to a class action suit
At some point next week this piece will make it to the open blog, so there’s no need to “share”
it, ladies and gents (please see today’s intro for more, Akiba fans). But oh brother, has this
story ever spiralled quickly! The news release out Friday from Fortuna Silver (FSM) (FVI.to) was
the first official comment from the company regarding the unholy permitting mess that has
blown up around its San José in Mexico. The company spent last week on the airwaves trying to
limit damage to the share price but the NR, when it finally arrived, shone light on just how bad
the company’s predicament has become. As a result, FSM was featured on the blog Friday
afternoon (11) and, while the house comment was “bloggy” (let’s say) instead of The IKN
Weekly’s style, there’s no hiding how bad things are at San José and longer.
21

Why so? In one word, Roxgold. Earlier this year, FVI started and completed the buyout of
ROXG but at no point in the proceedings, except perhaps buried in contractual legalese, were
shareholders of ROXG made aware of the continued denial of permit to FVI’s San José mine,
despite the transaction opening in April 2021 and closing on July 2nd. For a bit of numerical
history, the all-paper deal was announced just after FSM had run to $8, but by the time it had
closed FSM was down at $5.50, with both ROXG and long-staning FVI holders already
somewhat hamstrung and unhappy with the outcome. From that point in early July, the share
price of theb new larger Fortuna Silver Mines more or less trod water until two Fridays ago,
dissent had tampered down an was limited to a few grumbles and gripes, but not any longer;
with the new revelations out of Mexico, ROXG has seen its original stake cut in half. Here we go
with some numbers and sums, starting with a quote from the original NR announcing the deal
(12):
“The exchange ratio implies a consideration of approximately C$2.73 per Roxgold
common share based on the closing price of the Fortuna common shares on the
Toronto Stock Exchange (“TSX”) on April 23, 2021, representing a 42.1% premium to
the closing price of Roxgold on the TSX on the same date. Based on the 20-day
volume weighted average price of the Fortuna shares and the Roxgold shares on the
TSX for the period ending April 23, 2021, the exchange ratio implies a premium of
40.4% to Roxgold shareholders. The implied fully diluted in the-money equity value of
the Transaction is estimated at approximately C$1.1 billion.”
Applying details to that, on April 23rd FVI closed at $9.64 and ROXG closed at C$1.92. After the
announcement of the deal, the next trading day Monday April 26th saw ROXG close at $2.21.
Cut to this weekend and at FVI.to new and badly whacked price of C$4.85, ex-ROXG holders
have $1.37 worth of shares for their money. Or if you prefer, in July 2021 Roxgold’s last trade
before the fusion completed was at C$1.90, so even that is a 27.9% haircut to today’s price. All
a long way from what ROXG holders were promised and a lot due to FVI management keeping
quiet about the risks inherent at San José.
Summing up, Fortuna Silver got approval from Roxgold shareholders by offering than C$2.73
worth of value for their shares. This evening the equivalent ROXG fraction is worth C$1.37, an
almost exact 50% haircut from the offer and largely due to a permitting process that would
normally be straightforward, but turned out to be anything but that. Under these
circumstances, ROXG shareholders are allowed to wonder where approximately $500m of the
deal has gone and let’s recall, ex-ROXG shareholders make up around 35.7% of post-merger
Fortuna Silver (13). The potential for a class action suit against FSM for this permitting mess
was already high, weaponized (ugh, that word again) by the fact that the company trades on
the NYSE, a more litigious market toward companies than Canadian-only listed stocks.
However, once you delve into the weeds of this story it gets worse. A lot worse.
First up, last week’s Conference Call and in order to head off criticisms, FVI addressed the issue
this way in its prepared notes (14):
“This renewal process is something we started on May of this year. Semarnat is citing
two main reasons for the denial: one, not receiving requested information from us; and
second, that we have an open evaluation for the regularization of 73 ancillary facilities
not declared in the original 2009 Environmental Impact Statement.”
With respect to the first point, we have already provided proof dating back to 2019, we
have been submitting and complied with the share information. And second, we are of
a strong view that the regularization of ancillary infrastructure, which is a process that
we initiated in 2019 and is currently in the hands of Semarnat and evaluates the
mitigation of impacts for a greenhouse, a soccer field, a weather station, a core check
and drill core storage facilities, an office, a 40,000-liter fuel truck, a power transformer
and other infrastructure of similar nature cannot provide grounds for a denial.
Additionally, our legal team is also of a strong view that the regularization of 73 works
does not form part of the request for the extension. The deadline for Semarnat to
provide a response to our 10-year extension application expired on Saturday, October
23.
22

IKN back and we note that FVI glosses over point one, but even then decides to paint a false
picture as FVI started the renewal process for the permit in September 2020, not May 2021.
Then they go into detail on point two whereas in point of fact, the second issue is the minor of
the two and the devil is in the details of point 1, the fact that SEMARNAT is demanding a prior
consultancy process and social license from the company. Here’s what SEMARNAT says about
that process (translated):
“This consultancy will allow the indigenous communities to decide, in a democratic and
legitimate manner, about their territory without underestimating environmental
protection and the region’s natural resources, protecting human and environmental
health.”
So, not only does the prospect of a prior consultancy sound bad for FVI, but the wording used
by SEMARNAT now seems biased in favour of the local opposition. And who is this opposition,
people that have always been portrayed by FVI as tiny in number. For that, we refer to this
article (15) which lists the groups and organizations that come under the main opposition front,
named “El Frente No a la Minería por un Futuro de Todas y Todos” (“The No to Mining for a
Future for All Front”, a bit of a mouthful in English and in Spanish). Translating the list, the
front comprises of municipal and community agrarian authorities from Magdalena Ocotlán, San
Matías Chilazoa, Monte del Toro, San Martín de los Cansecos, Los Ocotes, El Vergel, Santa
Catarina Minas, San Nicolás Yaxe, San Dionisio Ocotepec and la Noria de Ortiz. Also, the United
People’s coordinators of the Ocotlán Valley, The Oaxaca Collective in Defense of Territorios, The
Services for Alternative Education AC, The Services of the Mixe Ser People SA, and the Unio of
Organizers of Sierra Juarez of Oaxaca UNOSJO S.C.
That doesn’t sound like a tiny minority to me. Perhaps those inside the company knew that a
while ago, for example the FSM VP Exploration for LatAm who “resigned voluntarily” in
September (16). It may be mere coincidence of course but in hindsight, that timing now looks
odd at best. Then there’s this (17) a Globe&Mail article from May 14th when the Roxgold merger
was getting criticism from Fortuna shareholders. At that point, FSM went on the marketing trail
to make its case and was clearly successful as the deal went through as planned. After
featuring a quote from a shareholder named Buckley, the report continued:
Finding more believers like Mr. Buckley is key for Fortuna, because half of its
shareholders are retail. Part of the company’s current strategy is engaging with
newsletter writers, in the hope of favourable coverage. Just as institutional investors
turn to sell-side analysts for their thoughts on a deal, retail investors likewise listen to
the opinions of newsletter writers. Fortuna lately has presented to several writers in the
business, including Dave Kranzler of Investment Research Dynamics, Trevor Hall with
Mining Stock Daily, and Garrett Goggin with Stansberry Research. In an e-mail to the
Globe, Fortuna spokesperson Carlos Baca stressed the independence of the views of
the newsletter writers, saying the company doesn’t remunerate them for coverage and
hasn’t paid any of them to write about the transaction.
Reading that note this week and hearing how the company doesn’t pay for coverage made me
laugh loudly. The aforementioned Carlos Baca knows why, I will simply remind readers that I
dropped coverage of Fortuna a long time ago and will never go back. In any case, we do know
that the aforementioned newsletter writers mentioned zero zip nada about the issues around
San José at the time, probably due to a lack of DD. Then there’s the abrupt change in attitude
shown by Fortuna Silver to a public consultancy, as last year under a different head SEMARNAT
tried ton organize what opponents called a “Consulta Expres” (no need to translate that) they
feared would ram through findings that didn’t represent local opinion. This fast-track approach
was eventually abandoned, but at the time (18) Mexico’s national daily “El Universo” asked “la
Compañía Minera Cuzcatlán” (i.e. Fortuna Silver’s wholly owned subsidiary, who said the
proposed fast-track consultancy “had carefully followed all indications established by the law for
this type of procedure” and that the company “fully trusts in the determinations of the
corresponding authority.” My, how they’ve changed their tune since the old boss left
SEMARNAT and the new one arrived! And you don’t need to ask the Ganoza family or even
Carlos Baca in IR for the new company opinion, either. Let’s take for example this report (19)
that quotes on Saúl Molina Jiménez, General Secretary of the workers’ union at the mine, who
23

is leading the current protest marches and sit-in outside of ministry buildings in Mexico, all with
the purpose of getting Fortuna’s permit signed off. He said last week that the workforce was
waiting on word of negotiations in order to resolve the issue. He also stated that the protests
would continue until they could return to Oaxaca with their permits and would intensify the
protests if their demands were not met.
That’s strong support from the workforce, but it’s not the whole story because IKN has another
angle that Fortuna doesn’t want you to know about. The protests happening in Mexico’s capital
city are not new, as this October 26th 2021 (20) news report testifies. Here’s a quote from that
report:
“During the protest, Saul Molina, General Secretary of the union of the STCSCEO
CTM union (workers at the mine) openly threatened physical violence. During an
interview with Oaxaca Central News TV, Molina warned, “We’re not going to let the
closure happen…even if blood has to be spilled, we will defend it”, referring to the FSM
mine at San José de Progreso.”
Perhaps Señor Molina regrets being as strident as that nowadays. Summing up, FVI started a
permit renewal process in September 2020, but when it went off their planned track in 2021
(the change of boss at SEMARNAT was clearly a big negative moment for the process), decided
not to tell anyone and the merger process with Roxgold (ex-ROXG) went ahead, with the aid of
“newsletter writers” to convince retail shareholders, closing in July. Things were clearly getting
worse and the writing was on the wall in October, as why else would union leaders who want
the mine to stay open threaten blood in the streets if the permits were not granted? At the
conference call on November 10th, FVI glossed over the main issues, failing to explain that “not
giving them requested information” is in fact the prior consultancy that hasn’t happened since
2011, not the 2019 date mentioned by them. And the tiny local opposition is anything but that.
Fortuna Silver Mines (FVI.to) (FSM) is in a lot of trouble.
The Precious Metals Summit PMSE(V)
Aside Palamina Corp (above), the most interesting company I talked with last week was Alexco
(AXU), the fan favourite silver stock which is now producing at Keno Hill, Yukon, and on the
cusp of moving into commercial production. Though CEO Clynt Nauman didn’t say so out loud,
the inference of commercial production being declared as from 1q22 is now obvious and even if
that date doesn’t hit exactly, AXU is about to get a long-overdue re-rating.
The second point is around upside potential. AXU is still fully focused on getting its mill the the
400tpd nameplate capacity it plans for its high-grading material from all Keno Hill (KHSD)
sources (Bellekino was the useful start-up muck, now it’s about the main Bermingham ore
source and after, Flame & Moth comes into play), but once there and running full capacity and
expected head grades, we shouldn’t expect AXU to stop. Plans are already afoot to move
throughput up to 550tpd and it’s all about access to enough rock. Then on the exploration front
CEO Nauman emphasized the amount of resource upside potential at the large and prospective
KHSD concession and for a person such as he, conservative to a fault and never trying to run
before he can walk, those words carry far more weight than if they came from a run-of-the-mill
mining CEO.
I’ve never hidden my admiration and like for this company, AXU represents great miners on a
great property doing things the right way. With the proximity to commercial production and the
way AXU plans not to rest on its laurels, but to expand production throughput and exploration
for more high-grade and high-quality ounces, it’s the time to put it back on the radar.
Harte Gold (HRT.to) brief update
The side bet is still deep underwater, but the company last week kept afloat by securing $2m in
capital from BHPP for liquidity purposes. The NR also came with this message that sounded
slightly better to these ears (21):
“While discussions continue with respect to a potential transaction, there can be no assurance that…”
24

In Winston Churchill’s words, “Jaw-jaw is better than war-war.” My HRT exposure is small in
real money terms but a loss is a loss and we take all trades seriously. However, I see enough to
hold and will wait for New Gold (NGD) or other to make a move. Holding through on this side
bet, but not adding any more, even at this low 2c price.
Capstone Mining (CS.to) to buy Mantos
As noted on the open blog last week, we now
expect the rumour we first broke on CS.to
buying the Mantos Copper project from Orion,
then all-but confirmed Friday, to become official
soon. More M&A in the copper space will be
welcome, as for CS, the chart suggests that the
market likes the terms of the deal, to boot. One
thing is for sure, Orion is now in harvest mode
after making sound investments earlier in the
cycle. We have this, we have its selling of
Victoria Gold (VIT.to) shares, we wonder what
mischief they have planned for the cash (aside
very fat Christmas bonuses, of course).
Minera IRL (MIRL.cse): We await the AGM materials on Tuesday
The personal (and rather dumb) controversy that hit this story on Saturday gets left aside here
(22), as in effect the ball is still in the court of Minera IRL (MIRL.cse) and its board of directors.
Once they publish the AGM materials, we can comment further and that will happen via the
Silicon Investor Bulletin Board (8) or the open blog. Once we know the contents of the AGM
materials and proxies are distributed, the real fight begins. My only advice at this point is to
keep separating the wheat from the chaff; as noted on the SI board Saturday (23), this is a
Concerned Shareholder group that has a clear and defined motive, we want to remove CEO
Benavides from the company and get the share price moving up again. Share price
improvement is not going to happen while he is in charge, history and his personal motives for
staying in charge guarantee that. However, we are not a Concerned Fanclub for a mouthy
blogger living in Lima, we’ll leave that job to my mother.
Conclusion
IKN652 is done, we end with bullet points:
 The previous two editions of the weekly were something of a struggle, for certain
personal reasons and for the fact that I’ve changed my laptop at long last (well
overdue, as some of you know). The combo of a new keyboard and lack of spellcheck
(because I am dumb at computers) made for slow typing, late finishes and a bad
viewing experience for you the reader. With things in better shape now, we should get
back to the normal “half dozen or so” errors per edition. I didn’t want to say anything
at the time, but thanks for bearing with me and retroactive apologies due
 I hoper to bring news on Discovery Silver’s (DSV.v) PEA next weekend, as long as they
publish. If not, the week after. Also the 3q21 from Mene Inc (MENE.v) is set to be more
interesting than most. Roy Sebag is a natural born winner, I like backing winners.
 And of course, as from Tuesday the Minera IRL (MIRL.cse) circus gets serious, as the
company is set to publish its proxy materials. With the AGM set for December 14th and
the CEO so desperate that he’s filing criminal charges against people for eating crème
caramels in his favourite restaurants, it promises to be a fun-packed three weeks.
25

 The world will be a better place when Daniel Ortega dies. Period.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stocks are Minera Alamos (MAI.v) and
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v). Flash updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best, Mark
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://www.palamina.com/
(2) https://www.rio2.com/post/rio2-announces-signing-of-us-50-million-gold-stream-with-wheaton-precious-metals-on-
fenix-gold
(3) https://6ix.com/event/silver-high-tech-monetary-metal-with-peter-krauth-silver-stock-investor/
(4) https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/china-copper-premiums-hit-seven-yr-high-tight-stocks-vat-issue-2021-
11-19/
(5) https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/peru-pm-sparks-controversy-with-mining-sector-by-ruling-out-timeline-
extensions-2021-11-20/
(6) https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy0481
(7) https://www.laprensa.com.ni/2021/11/19/economia/2913110-ortega-ordena-cambios-en-el-ministerio-de-energia-
enatrel-y-el-ine-pero-deja-a-los-sancionados-en-sus-cargos
(8) https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=8b36705a-b4c1-4feb-8a5a-d32a7a914c15
(9) https://www.dw.com/en/nicaragua-decides-to-leave-oas-after-election-criticism/a-59884427
(10) https://rpp.pe/mundo/latinoamerica/venezuela-considera-legitima-y-necesaria-la-salida-de-nicaragua-de-la-oea-
noticia-1370304
(11) https://iknnews.com/fortuna-silver-fsm-fvi-to-and-the-ijn-first-law-of-mining-nrs/
(12) https://fortunasilver.com/investors/news/fortuna-and-roxgold-complete-combination-to-create-a-global-premier-
growth-oriented-intermediate-gold-and-silver-producer/
(13) https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/canadas-fortuna-pushes-into-west-africa-with-884-mln-roxgold-deal-2021-04-
26/
(14) https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2021/11/12/fortuna-silver-mines-fsm-q3-2021-earnings-call-
tra/?source=eptyholnk0000202&utm_source=yahoo-host&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article
(15) https://aristeguinoticias.com/2607/mexico/niega-semarnat-permiso-ambiental-para-proyecto-minero-en-oaxaca-es-
un-triunfo-dicen-las-comunidades/
(16) https://fortunasilver.com/investors/news/fortuna-announces-changes-in-management-team-sept-2021/
(17) https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-fortuna-faces-pushback-from-retail-investors-on-merits-of-
proposed/
(18) https://oaxaca.eluniversal.com.mx/estatal/07-12-2020/semarnat-organiza-consulta-expres-para-proyecto-minero-
en-oaxaca-denuncian
(19) https://www.e-consulta.com/nota/2021-11-18/nacion/mineros-de-oaxaca-protestan-por-tercera-vez-en-cdmx/
(20) https://www.educaoaxaca.org/preocupacion-en-canada-por-amenazas-de-parte-de-trabajadores-de-fortuna-silver-
mines/
(21) https://finance.yahoo.com/news/harte-gold-announces-additional-funding-230000570.html
(22) https://www.siliconinvestor.com/subject.aspx?subjectid=58319
(23) https://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=33583637
26

}Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Ago-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Set-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Ene-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Set-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Ene-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Set-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Ago-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Abr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Set-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Abr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Set-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-ago-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-ene-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-abr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-abr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-ene-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-ene-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-abr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-abr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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