IKN #648Premium

The IKN Weekly
Week 648, October 24th 2021
Contents
This Week: Trade heads-up, In Today’s Edition, No big intro this week.
Fundamental Analysis: Buying Discovery Silver (DSV.v).
Stocks to Follow: Argonaut Gold (AR.to), Minera Alamos (MAI.v), Strategic Metals (SMD.v),
Altiplano Metals (APN.v), Aurelius Minerals (AUL.v), Copper Mountain (CMMC.to), QC Copper &
Gold (QCCU.v).
Copper Basket: Overview, Element 29 (ECU.v), C3Metals (CCCM.v).
Producer Basket: Overview, B2Gold (BTG).
Tiny Dogs: Overview, Golden Pursuit (GDP.v).
Regional Politics: Peru’s political dance continues, Nicaragua’s Presidential election, Argentina
at China Mining 2021, Chile: Election voter intention update, Sell Ecuador redux.
Market Watching: Tracking the Buy Peru call (final update), Orezone (ORE.v) add another
ten percent, Minera IRL (MIRL.cse): We arrive at the time for action.
I remind subscribers that no part of this newsletter can be copied, reproduced or
given to any third party without the express permission of the author.
This Week
Trade heads-up
As seen in today’s main fundamentals section, I’m a buyer of Discovery Silver (DSV.v) in the
days ahead, the trade based firmly on the company resource update published last week.
In Today’s Edition
 The market macro backdrop continues to be conducive to gold and other metals. As
such, and with the growing recognition that silver isn’t going any lower in the near or
medium-term,
 Today’s main event is a close look at Discovery Silver (DSV.v). It’s very cheap and
luckily for us, most people haven’t realized yet.
 Regional politics does the rounds, with news from Chile and Nica about elections, plus
things are getting worse for Lasso in Ecuador.
 The copper basket continues to be a main focus as we go over the fun and games at
the LME last week. The chop may have been hard, but all arrows still point toward
higher prices.
No big intro this week
Our position is now clear and the current market is a buy, with metals of all types set to benefit
from the financial world’s decision to accommodate inflation into the Covid recovery period.
However, Wall St. has found other places for its money so far, instead of gold, with outflows
1

continuing last week a the push for yield outweighs market fear. GDL lost another 4.65 metric
tonnes from its vaults, the total now 978.07mt.
8.20 GLD: Inventory/Price Ratio, 2026 to date
8.00
7.80
7.60
7.40
7.20
7.00
6.80
6.60
6.40
6.20
6.00
5.80
5.60
2
61/4/1 61/61/3 61/62/5 61/8/8 61/81/01 61/92/21 71/41/3 71/42/5 71/4/8 71/61/01 71/72/21 81/21/3 81/22/5 81/2/8 81/21/01 81/42/21 91/8/3 91/02/5 91/13/7 91/01/01 91/02/21 02/5/3 02/51/5 02/82/7 02/7/01 02/71/21 12/3/3 12/11/5 12/22/7 12/1/01
Source: SPDR data, IKN calcs
GLD gold holdings, 2016 to date (metric tonnes)
1400
1350
1300
1250
1200
1150
1100
1050
1000
950
900
850
800
750
700
650
600
61/4/1 61/61/3 61/62/5 61/8/8 61/81/01 61/92/21 71/41/3 71/42/5 71/4/8 71/61/01 71/72/21 81/21/3 81/22/5 81/2/8 81/21/01 81/42/21 91/8/3 91/02/5 91/13/7 91/01/01 91/02/21 02/5/3 02/51/5 02/82/7 02/7/01 02/71/21 12/3/3 12/11/5 12/22/7 12/1/01
mt
source: SPDR GLD data
Sentiment continues to languish, too, with the inventory/price ratio stubbornly sticking to under
6X. We will see that line move back up when gold becomes a net accumulation for financial
institutions, but so far there are seemingly better things to do with the money.
That will do for today, there’s a fat fundies note to run.
Fundamental Analysis of Mining Stocks
Discovery Silver (DSV.v): Buying
“I like to go for cinches.
I like to shoot fish in a barrel.
But I like to do it after the water has run out.”
Warren Buffett
Preamble
Today’s note is a long one, so here’s the TL:DR that comes with the use of this comparative
chart, showing how silver (SLV), the silver stocks
(SILV) and our target for today, Discovery Silver
(DSV.v) has traded in the last ten days:
By a quirk of events, the weakness seen in sector
stocks on Monday and Tuesday dragged DSV
sharply lower, perhaps nerves from people who had
heard the resource update were due. Then the NR
announcing the new resource estimate at Cordero
came Wednesday and the stock duly rebounded as
well it should, but come Friday trading and

generalized market nerves we saw DSV sold off again and the stock closed at C$1.61, up 11%
over the last two trading weeks as seen in the chart above. All that while silver bullion (SLV
proxy) rose by 7%.
We’re not about to start running blow-by-blow accounts of tapes we cover, instead this
preamble is to illustrate a house opinion; Last week’s resource NR from DSV was lost in the
news cycle or the market doesn’t care about new silver resources at the moment, but for
whatever reason DSV closed at $1.61 and that is crazy. For whatever reason, DSV this weekend
is a rare opportunity, a bonafide real deal resource at a sleeper price. Knowing what we now
know, it’s fair to say DSV gives a exceptional entry point into a world class project and this
stock is a no-brainer to go higher from here. My job is to explain why.
A re-introduction to Discovery Silver (DSV.v)
Lots of bases to cover today, let’s start with corporate structure:
Shares out: 325.146m
Options: 19m
Warrants: 34m
Fully diluted shares: 378m
Current share price: C$1.61
Market Cap: C$523.49m
Approx cash per S/O: 24c
All prices are in Canadian Dollars unless stated. Forex U$0.80=CAD$1
It’s been a long time since the last real mention of Discovery Silver (DSV.v) here at The IKN
Weekly; that was in IKN555 dated January 12th 2020 and the final section of an issue that
covered plenty of bases on potential future trades. That explains the first line of this briefest of
overviews, the comment in parentheses due to my going on vacation the day after publication,
it should be “Oxygen” and not “Fronteer”, the rest is straightforward and a good way to begin a
more extensive note on the company:
Discovery Metals Corp (DSV.v): Big silver
The only other company I want to mention today is Discovery Silver (DSV.v) and I’m
only going to mention it in passing. This company took over the old Cordero project in
Mexico that was owned and developed to PEA stage by Levon Resources (ex-LVN) in
the last cycle. Cordero is one of those big tonnage low grade propositions that were
popular ten years ago but have fallen out of favour, the difference this time being that
the target metal is silver, not gold.
I watched Levon from the sidelines all that time without ever buying, it was too hard
to like a project with an average grade of 50g/t AgEq and a cut-off on that of 40g/t
(AgEq). Margins were always tight, the mine would be permanently exposed to the
vagaries of the silver metals market, capex was prohibitive. But after reading the NR
out of DSV last week (26), my interest is piqued again and a 20 minute conference call
on Friday with management has only increased it further. In short, I see a company
doing with silver what Rio2 is doing with gold at Fenix, taking a low grade mess of a
resource, re-working it, lowering project tonnage and capex, adding grade to a high-
margin starter pit that will provide quick capital payback. That’s the right formula in
this day and age and I will be working on my DSV DD over the next couple of weeks
(from time to time with a fruity rum punch in the other hand, I hope).
With 210.4m shares out at a price of C$0.59 this
weekend, DSV has a market cap of C$124.14m
which isn’t cheap for a junior exploreco, but it
does have $28m at bank and zero financing
pressures, as well as a big target to work on. It’s
also one of the Mark O’Dea Fronteer group of
companies and that management team comes at
a premium (in the first months, at least). This
year that work will include 25,000m of drilling,
with 15k of that resource definition and the
3

other 10k exploration, all with a view to getting a re-worked PEA that has a completely
re-worked resource model, a smaller pit, smaller tonnage, better grade and better
margins.
IKN648 October 2021 back and, as seen above, the price
chart included that day showed DSV as a 50c-or-abouts
proposition, but trading with decent volume and market
interest. Here’s how the 2019-to-date chart developed
afterwards, the red arrow noting IKN555 (right). DSV has
enjoyed an excellent run and the chart allows us to walk the
timeline. After that red arrow comes the Covid crash, then
the ramp into the silver breakout of late July. In fact DSV
benefited more than even most silver stocks over that key
period and we’ll take a moment and consider why, using this
second chart comparing DSV to the price of silver (SLV
proxy) over the period June to September 2020:
I’ve made it a busy chart deliberately, as there’s a narrative that starts early June and our first
arrow, the June 9th (NR) announcing the closure of its $25m round of financing, with $10m
from strategic sponsor Eric Sprott (1). Eric Sprott was already a strategic partner at DSV and
had started his accumulation in mid-2019, this last financing bringing him to control status of
over 20% of shares outstanding. That same NR also announced the start of annual budgeted
activities at the Cordero project and we got the first drill result on July 20th in the NR entitled
(2), “Discovery Reports 1,907 g/t AgEq Over 1.4 m in its First Drill Hole Testing the 1.2 Km-
Long Todos Santos Vein Trend at Cordero”. A strong headline and beautifully timed, as the
chart shows how the key silver price breakout occurred on July 20th. That was a break over
U$21/oz* Ag shot forward and while still with plenty of buyer, consolidated around the U$25/oz
level. So by luck, timing or a combination of factors DSV was in the right place at the right time
for the silver price breakout. But four days later was no luck, as the company hit a strategic ball
out the park with its second NR of the week (3): “Discovery Metals Announces $35 Million
Private Placement with $15 Million Investment from Eric Sprott”. The deal achieved two things,
by raising capital and providing an almighty share price catalyst due to Eric Sprott’s perceived
approval of Cordero’s development into a hot silver market. The pre-closed deal sold nearly
26m units at C$1.35 (unit = 1 share + ½ warrant at a $1.75 strike) and was as bullish as signal
as they come, the world followed Eric Sprott in and DSV was already flying when the second
silver price lift took the metal to $28/oz and above, where it stayed for most of August. Even
20/20 hindsight would have a tough time sequencing events to DSV’s better advantage and
within days of Eric Sprott’s big $1.35 purchase, DSV was trading readily on the open market at
$2.50 and above. Then came a re-trace, but no damage done and in the first half of 2021 DSV
found plenty of support at a $2-or-abouts stock until the 3q21 sector sell-off took everything
lower DSV included.
4

Which brings us more or less up to date and last week’s resource update NR. It also provides
reason (or whining excuse) as to why DSV hasn’t had mention since that initial coverage; silver
was off my radar and I missed the whole sector move (though to be fair to myself the gold and
copper trades were doing okay) and by implication, DSV also went without me. Then when it
shot forward on the Eric Sprott hype, there was simply no point in chasing the stock. DSV from
IKN555 on was “one that got away”, but the right bullish backdrop for silver has finally shown
and at a time when DSV is trading at its lowest levels since silver’s breakout. Sum it all up and
DSV has been on the back boiler of coverage and observation here at The IKN Weekly, but that
changed in no uncertain manner last week with the new resource estimate for Cordero. But
that’s getting ahead of ourselves slightly, first we get the moving parts in place and here’s what
follows:
 A look at company management and key owners
 An overview of DSV’s financials
 An outline of the Cordero project.
 After that we consider its new resource numbers, as seen last week
Then we put it together and by then, if I’ve done my job right you’ll get why I’m buying this
stock tomorrow morning. We begin.
Management and ownership
The management roster at DSV passes with flying colours, with a strong officer bench and as
close to an unbeatable board of directors as you tend to get in mining. It’s headed up by
President and CEO Taj Singh, who comes from an engineering background and has plenty of
experience in large project and executive roles, though this gig is his first as CEO. Officers
include the highly experienced and peer-regarded Gernot
Wober as VP Exploration (the same VP Ex kidnapped by
ELN terrorists in Colombia a few years ago while working
for a different exploreco).
As for the board of directors, it’s second to none and led
by Chair and full-on industry rock star Murray John (his
major role at Dundee the CV centrepiece), then Mark
O’Dea, serial entrepreneur and mining sector rainmaker.
O’Dea is the founder of DSV and the company is part of
his “Oxygen Capital” group companies, a stable with
several major winners over the years. Moving to major
shareholders, top of the company’s roster is Eric Sprott with 24.7% of current shares out (and
holding plenty of warrants too, including the recent $1.75 papers). In its latest corporate
presentation, DSV tells us “founders/mgmt/board” own 10%, if so that’s 32.5m with most of
them out of sight of the board. Founder Mark O’Dea owns 4.8m shares, CEO Taj Singh owns
1.786m, other officers a declared 2m or so, therefore we assume without inquiring that Oxygen
Capital entities and people have a few small parcels, kept apart and under 10% group
declaration (which is fine by me, let winners in capitalism be rewarded accordingly). After that,
“institutions” own 30% and are kept apart from the 35% owned by “retail” on the pie chart,
maybe to create the illusion that they would be tighter-handed. Nonsense, of course .
Financials overview
With management passing muster easily we move to the financials: DSV is a straightforward
company to analyse and present to a willing public and that’s a good thing, it means we can get
ot more important matters more quickly so today’s financial overview takes a snapshot look at
the DSV books, starting with the main balance sheet items and starting with assets:
5

DSV.v: Assets, per qtr
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
6
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2
$m
fixed
other current
cash
source: company filings
Cordero is the main fixed asset and is carried at
DSV.v: Liabilities, per qtr
cost, while exploration is expensed. That makes
5
cash the most important part of this exploreco, now 4.5
about to make the transition to developer and on 4
3.5
that, DSV is in fine shape. As for liabilities, this
3
chart (right) shows DSV in optimum shape. If all 2.5
explorecos were run this well, my job would 2
1.5
be….more boring.
1
0.5
0
The combo of healthy cash treasury and an almost
total lack of liabilities means the working capital
chart looks very similar to the treasury chart:
DSV is in prime position as it moves to 2022, the year in which the company has around $25m
of development work planned in order to move Cordero through the gears and to a production
decision in 2023. As we’ll see, production could then start as early as 2025.
Moving to its operations, this chart maps out how DSV has been spending its treasury:
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2
source: company filings
srallod
fo
snoillim
LT liabs
current liabs
100 DSV.v: Working Capital per qtr
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2
source company filings/IKN ests
srallod
fo
snoillim
DSV.v: Cash treasury per qtr
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2
source: company filings/IKN ests
srallod
fo
snoillim
C$m DSV.v: Operation expenses
12
other exp
10
Share payments
8 prof fees
G&A
6 Exploration
4
2
0
-2
1q18 2q18 3q18 4q18 1q19 2q19 3q19 4q19 1q20 2q20 3q20 4q20 1q21 2q21
source: company filings

Aside the enforced break due to Covid-19 in 2q20, the company has been moving forward with
its development and drilling of Cordero since the end of 2019. The last two quarters have seen
exploration spend at nearly $6m/qtr and this chart shows the main breakdown:
DSV: Exploration costs breakdown
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
7
81q1 81q2 81q3 81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2
all other exploration
Cordero Driling
source: company filings
That’s a reasonably high percentage of cash burn going where it’s most needed. Our final chart
covers the share structure, which stands at 325m shares out this weekend and, with the
expected conversion of all ITM warrants, we expect DSV to have 378m shares by the ned of
next year.
DSV.v: Shares Out
440.56 440.56 440.56
17.861
12.112 84.112
23.752
15.992 10.503 49.323 51.523 043 053 073 873
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
81q4 91q1 91q2 91q3 91q4 02q1 02q2 02q3 02q4 12q1 12q2 tse12q3 tse12q4 tse22q1 tse22q2
source: company filings/IKN ests
serahs
fo
snoillim
Though DSV may eventually make a strategic decision to sell more shares and raise capital,
there’s no need for the company to do so and, with the backing of a major financial group in
Oxygen, DSV is likely to have plenty of options when the time comes to build its mine.
An overview of the Cordero project
We now run an overview of the Cordero project, once again company literature will give you a
lot more background. This section also runs into the next as we
consider how to approach the updated resource numbers, as
seen last week. The latest corporate presentation, dated
October 2021 and on the company website (4). The
presentation is updated to include the new resource study as
well as all the background required to get a handle on Cordero
and what it means to DSV. Here we’ll cover the basics, snatch a
couple of visuals from the corp pres and run a summary, while
encouraging one and all to click and get their own copy.
Here right is the location of Cordero, in North Mexico and in
happy hunting ground for operators. There are narco gang
operating in the region and, from time to time, the odd report
of gold heists from local mines, but overall the mines tend to
get on with the job of mining and gang problems are few.
It’s taken up to now to outline DSV the company and introduce
Cordero, we are now at the point where last week’s news
comes into play and the following tables are the reason to be

keen on this company. To begin, we consider where the resource update comes in DSV’s plans:
The answer is, “just before the re-vamped PEA”, which is due out in a month’s time. We know
the new numbers are for the PEA and last week, DSV gave us two important resources for the
upcoming report. The first and most important is the sulphide resource, as seen here:
This is the major mineralization at Cordero, with 649m tonnes of mineralization under 43-101
compliance (M+I+I) and four payable metals including a big contribution from zinc. There’s a
lot of information on that table, but the NSR cut-off on the left helps order things. There are, in
effect, three economic cut-offs with the main global resource at the top, under the
U$7.25/tonne cut. That’s the section that gives an M+I contained metal total of 344m oz Ag
and 837m oz AgEq. We are then offered two other cut-offs, with the $15/t cut still offering
727m oz AgEq but at significantly higher grades, then finally the high-grade $25/t cut-off in
which 211m oz silver are in–situ at an average of 42g/t, a lot higher than the 20g in the big
resource. Clearly, Cordero is a big low-grade deposit suitable for bulk mining operations, open
pit and low costs. Also, DSV has done its metallurgy and the mineralization is considered clean,
with understood recoveries and cycle times, also forming clean concentrates without penalty
elements. However, this resource update now brings large areas of higher grading material to
the table, something that DSV plans to capitalize upon.
We are also offered an oxide resource for Cordero:
8

This is clearly smaller, at 98m tonnes M+I at the lowest NSR cut-off. Here DSV has identified
higher grading oxide zones that carry silver and gold as payables. As you’d expect, the oxide
mineralization is located close to surface and while careful consideration of all maps and
sections is advised, I’ve chosen this representative section from DSV literature to show that the
higher grading oxide zones lend themselves to early exploitation.
In fact, the eventual removal of the oxides is going to happen anyway, as it’s necessary to get
at the more valuable sulphides. As DSV now has oxides to heap-leach as part of its pre-strip,
the capex bill for the eventual sulphides operation can be at least partially funded from
operations, if required. However, after conversations with
management this week, we expect DSV to develop both
oxides and sulphides operations at roughly the same
time, with the oxides coming online earlier (heap
leachers are easier engineering than entire mills).
Also, the PEA should benefit from this (right). Even
before the zinc price started running recently, the income
DSV models from Zn is a vital part of the project. When
the PEA arrives in a month’s time DSV is almost certain
to use U$1.20/lb as its baseline assumption for
economics, something that will sit well against a spot
price of upwards if $1.50/lb. Summing up Cordero, until
DSV came along it was a massive, low-grade, high capex
proposition on silver that nobody liked, but after two years of drilling the company now has a
resource with enough higher grading material to make for not just a different PEA, but a very
different one.
The upcoming PEA will be major price catalyst
Last week’s NR made DSV became an instant no-brainer for this numbercruncher, not because
of the overall global resource with an average grade of just 19 g/t silver, but for the way the
higher grade zones were so large (and largely continuous). For context, it would take a
50,000tpd machine over 37 years to process the current 43-101 resource and that’s not what
we want. DSV is looking at a smaller mine life with as much of the better grade as possible.
From the start, DSV has played Cordero smarter than its previous owners, Levon Resources,
whose plan was to balloon the tonnage and create a high front-end capex project that
processes low grade tonnages over a long mine life. That failure is why DSV picked up Cordero
cheaply, the plan to optimize and build a resource, and then an eventual mine, on the higher
grading zones of the large resource. That's what DSV has been doing for the last two years at
Cordero and didn't go to the trouble of delineating high grade zones for fun. The important
parts of last week's new resource are the higher grading zones and the entire corporate
strategy was built around getting them, so maybe Mr Market was still fixated on the large
overall resource and missed the key point: Cordero is going to be a very profitable mine.
9

Valuing Discovery Silver (DSV.v)
It's time to put a price on all this promise. The following are assumptions used as a framework
for our price model. They come after conversations with DSV management last week, as well as
house DD, lots of fiddling around in Excel and due consideration of evidence (of course). We
assume:
 DSV now has a handle on enough higher grade sulphide tonnage to build a
conventional mill with a 15 year mine plan without recourse to the low grade material,
more than enough Life of Mine (LoM) for its upcoming PEA. The met is understood and
gives good results.
 The identified higher grading oxide mineralization provides early cash flow from a
separate heap-leach operation. It needs to be stripped for the sulphides anyway, so the
act of mining the oxides is a de-facto pre-strip for sulphides operation coming on its
heels.
 DSV is likely taking a staged approach toward reaching full production at Cordero. The
resource lends itself to a plan that develops the oxides early as a heap leach operation,
then once underway the plan brings sulphides online early via milling flotation circuits.
The early stage cash flow should then fund the build toward a 50,000tpd sulphides
milling operation, with higher soon as possible. Here’s how we see that happening:
tpd Estimated throughput by year
60000 sulphide tpd
50000 oxide tpd
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
source: IKN ests from DSV data
Starting at 20,000 tonnes per day (tpd), the way to maximize return is to spend capex early, in
this case the sulphide mill gets built at the same time as the oxide heap leach infrastructure,
instead of waiting for its cash flow to bootstrap the operations. DSV then burns through the
best of the oxides early, but within five years the company I running the sulphides at
50,000tpd. These rough tonnages fit with DSV management’s own ballpark assumptions, as
seen on YouTube videos etc. They also assume CEO Singh is right in saying that after warrants
exercises, DSV should leave 2022 (not begin, but leave) with at least C$70m in treasury and
enough to set the construction ball rolling quickly once the decision is made. Therefore, there’s
every reason to expect production from the mine as early as 2025, but more importantly, a
swift ramping of sulphides production and the real pay dirt.
Be clear, this semi-staged ramp to full production is not the bootstrap model I envisaged in
early 2020. Back then, thoughts were of a low entry capex then DSV growing a second stage
organically from cash flow. With the new resource and better information from the company, it’
clear I hadn't thought this one through enough as the real pay dirt at Cordero is sulphide dirt,
with the expected long-term revenues split is close to 50/50 between precious and base
metals*. The oxides are a limited tonnage, with only gold and silver as payables, but their
mining is also the de-facto act of pre-stripping so it’s going to happen anyway. But more
importantly, DSV is backed by the Oxygen Group corporate structure and it is at these moments
when having serially successful and deep-pocketed backers shines through.
[SIDEBAR: For an example away from Mexico a moment, consider Argentina and the eye-watering
capex bills required for all those high Andean porphyry copper/gold mine projects. Companies as large
as Glencore (Pachón) have purposely dragged their heels on committing the billions required, but the
new discoveries at Josemaria and Filo de Sol have The Lundins behind them and, long story short, that
makes them mines and soon. Leaving aside the strong political relationships the Lundins enjoy with the
10

right people and considering just the job of mining, from the start the Lundins have funded a world-class
discovery with every budget dollar it needs. First the family's exploreco NGEx (ticker from their motto
"no guts no glory"), then the spin-offs, now the real growth stage, and we all know the funding won't
stop; The Lundin family have this on covered without breaking sweat.]
There are few corporate entities bring that amount of financial and reputational heft to the
table in the sector, but Oxygen Group and Mark O'Dea is one of them and if that sounds
sycophantic toward O'Dea, then so be it. That’s the macro framework for our model and only
time will tell if it’s close to the DSV PEA coming soon. Now for the numerical inputs, as we also
have list of technical assumptions in the model, as the objective is to emulate as closely as
possible the upcoming company PEA which should be out November (though December is
possible). Our task is to get in the ballpark and we assume:
 First oxides production at Cordero in 2025, with first sulphides production the following
year. Average annual throughputs for both materials are as per our model for years one
(Y1) to five (Y5) until 50k tpd sulphides-only is reached in year six (Y6) and beyond.
 We assume the base price deck used by DSV in last week’s NR, as it is almost certainly
the same as in the upcoming PEA. This supposes silver at U$24/oz, gold at U$1,800/oz,
lead (Pb) at U$1.10/lb and zinc (Zn) at U$1.20/lb. Notably, this price deck is
conservative compared to current spot.
We then assume the following production details for the four payable metals:
 For sulphides silver, an average grade of 33 g/t with 75% average recoveries
 For oxides silver, an average grade of 52g/t with 60% average recoveries
(NB: the oxides are assumed from the highest grading areas, while we prefer to assume the mid-range
cut-off for the sulphides (i.e. the U$15/tonne NSR) in order to allow better flexibility on the larger
tonnage as the mine rolls out)
 For sulphides gold, an average grade of 0.9 g/t with 20% average recoveries
 For oxides gold, an average grade of 0.8 g/t with 60% average recoveries
(NB: gold is not a big payable at DSV, with recoveries expected to be low)
 For zinc (sulphides only), an average grade of 0.83% with 88% average recoveries
(NB: Zinc is a big part of the revenues mix at DSV and the recent price move are good new for the company)
 For lead(Pb) (sulphides only), an average grade of 0.49% with 85% average recoveries
(NB: Though a smaller payable, most of the silver reports to the Pb circuit and this would become its most
valuable product)
With the metals and prices done, other line items include:
 Mine site costs of U$10/tonne, a conservative number and likely higher than reality.
The fact that DV has a U$7.25/tonne NR cut-off on its global resource means
something in the real world; that DV can run its mine at that cost level. By choosing
$10/t, we build in a little extra per tonne cost due to the processing of more metal per
tonne, but also a couple of dollars of comfort to the model as well.
 Depreciation of U$15m annual, a rough guess
 And exploration budget of $8m per year, and sustaining capex of $10m annual
 G&A of U$1/tonne, again higher than the DSV estimate as used last week
 A financing cost of $15m per year, which assumes some modest debt component to an
overall capex package
 We stay at 400m shares out, as we try to show current value compared to the
upcoming PEA. This might raise a question on how the capex be raised, but with the
early cash flow from oxides DSV would only need a $100m debt package to build the
sulphides out.
 A net of 350 work days per calendar year
 TC/RC of 15%, which tallies with DSV’s apparent assumptions for the PEA as seen in
the appendix to last week’s NR
 All standard Mexico State burdens, including the 0.5% special royalty on precious
11

metals production
 The 8% worker participation on EBIT
 USD0.8 = CAD1
 Other minor things, too
We then run all those assumptions through this, as seen above, our assumption of how DSV will
ramp up production at Cordero. First the oxides, then the sulphides come in and take over.
tpd Estimated throughput by year
60000 sulphide tpd
50000 oxide tpd
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
source: IKN ests from DSV data
The tonnage chart assumes that from 2030 onward the production years remain the same,
shown here by expanding our model to the first eight years of production at Cordero. This first
table splits model revenues down by metal, then gives a gross and post-deduction net total:
DSV at Cordero: Model revenues for first years
production year Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6 Y7 Y8
gold (koz) 0 405 608 608 810 1,013 1,013 1,013
U$/oz 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800
Au revs (U$m) 19.4 20.2 10.8 10.8 6.3 1.8 1.8 1.8
zinc (Mlb) 0 113 169 169 225 282 282 282
U$/lb 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.20
Zn revs (U$m) 0.0 135.3 202.9 202.9 270.5 338.2 338.2 338.2
lead (mln lbs) 0 64 96 96 129 161 161 161
U$/lb 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.10
Pb revs (U$m) 0.0 70.7 106.1 106.1 141.4 176.8 176.8 176.8
silver Moz 0.00 5.57 8.36 8.36 11.14 13.93 13.93 13.93
U$/oz 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0
Ag revs (U$m) 62.8 202.1 240.3 240.3 294.2 348.2 348.2 348.2
Gross revs (U$m) 82.2 428.2 560.1 560.1 712.5 864.9 864.9 864.9
TC/RC (12.3) (64.2) (84.0) (84.0) (106.9) (129.7) (129.7) (129.7)
Net sales (U$m) 69.9 364.0 476.1 476.1 605.6 735.2 735.2 735.2
Sources: DSV data, IKN calcs and ests
To visualize the results, this chart shows the GROSS revenue totals above:
U$m DSV at Cordero: Revenues mix for first years
1000
900 Ag revs (U$m)
800 Pb revs (U$m)
Zn revs (U$m)
700
Au revs (U$m)
600
500
400
300
200
100
12
0
Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6 Y7 Y8
source: DSV data, IKN calcs

What becomes clear is the importance of zinc in the metals mix, even at the DSV assumption
price of U$1.20/lb. We envisage a market warmly welcoming this price assumption, then
factoring in another 30c/lb into more optimistic models.
There’s certainly plenty of room to make DSV revenues look good, as seen in the income
statements model:
DSV at Cordero: Condensed income statement (U$m)
case Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6 Y7 Y8
Sales (U$m) 69.9 364.0 476.1 476.1 605.6 735.2 735.2 735.2
Cash COGS 0.0 70.0 105.0 105.0 140.0 175.0 175.0 175.0
Depreciation 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0
G&A 0.0 7.0 10.5 12.6 13.0 17.5 17.5 17.5
fin. Costs 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0
royalty 0.3 1.8 2.4 2.4 3.0 3.7 3.7 3.7
Op income 39.6 255.2 328.2 326.1 419.6 509.0 509.0 509.0
Exploration 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0
Worker profit share 2.5 19.8 25.6 25.4 32.9 40.1 40.1 40.1
Tax 7.3 56.8 73.6 73.2 94.7 115.2 115.2 115.2
Net income 21.8 170.5 220.9 219.5 284.0 345.7 345.7 345.7
Shares out (m) 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400
EPS 0.05 0.43 0.55 0.55 0.71 0.86 0.86 0.86
Capex 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
FCF 0.12 0.49 0.61 0.61 0.77 0.93 0.93 0.93
Sources: DSV data, IKN estimates
Once the sulphides operation begins to hit its stride in Year Three (Y3), DSV at Cordero is
already running an operating income of U$328.2m per year. As the oxides production finally
gives way for pure sulphides at 50ktpd, Cordero becomes an impressive cash cow capable of
making over half a billion dollars per year.
Make no mistake, this project isn’t just a mine in the making, it’s a world-class mine with top
level backers in the right part of the world to allow it to happen. As for the price target, THIS
IS NOT OFFICIAL AND I WILL NOT USE IT IN THE CONCLUSION because there are so
many different ways for Cordero to be developed, and only one of them is under this company.
A standalone asset of this value is a prime target for silver M&A, so the real call is to see DSV
sell to the highest bidder at some point in 2023 or 2024. However, to give an idea of the
generative power of this project, this is based on year 5’s results:
Sales & earnings model year Target price & valuation data for DSV (C$) based on
Year Y1 Y3 Y5 Y6+ based on Year Five model economics
Sales (U$m) 66.9 467.9 595.6 723.3 24-month target $5.54 based on 8x EPS
Upside to target 244% and U$24/oz Ag
EPS 0.05 0.54 0.69 0.84 Mkt cap (C$m) $523 Enterprise value $445
FCF 0.11 0.60 0.76 0.91 P/sales (Y1) 1.12 EV/sales (Y1) 0.95
P/E (Y1) 32.7 EV/EBITDA (Y1) 8.6
P/E (Y3) 3.0 EV/EBITDA (Y3) 1.7
P/E (Y5) 2.3 EV/EBITDA (Y5) 0.9
My 8X EPS is lowball compared to the multiples that top class silver assets command. Seriously.
Discussion and conclusion
We are now in the prime window to buy DSV shares and we, the retail investor, have around
one month to position before DSV lets the cat out the bag. Not only will the upcoming PEA’s
numbers make evident just how profitable this re-worked Cordero is going to be to a wider
13

audience, but at that point DSV can start marketing itself on its new numbers. I’m quite sure
the DSV team feel a little hamstrung this weekend, with a great new 43-101 resource in-hand
that forms the basis of the upcoming PEA that promises to sparkle. However, as the old PEA is
still the valid document, they can’t talk up the results yet!
This is to our advantage, of course, because once the wider world sees how much the operator
of the Cordero silver/zinc mine in Mexico is going to make, this market cap will not stay at a
little over U$400m. Be clear, Cordero is a multi-billion dollar mining asset in the
making that will likely be mining when our grand-daughters are market players, but our focus
is on the nearer term. It’s a question of how much NPV is reflected in DSV’s current share price
once the PEA is published, because I see two ways to play this:
 Buy and hold, because PAAS or FR.to will eventually step up
 Buy and flip them back to the market after the PEA, because the PPS will be a lot
higher than C$1.61 once the wider market understands how profitable this mine will be.
First up, not only will Cordero and DSV be prime takeover material (this asset would fit a
number of companies, including and not limited to First Majestic, Pan American, Fortuna, etc),
but with Mark O’Dea and Oxygen in the background, DSV wouldn’t have to represent the move
to production in order to flush out bids; this company and team are capable of doing what
SilverCrest set out to do and Eric Sprott may have decided that this is the company he wants to
grow into operative fruition. Summing up DSV would have the luxury of choice at the moment
of financing its project and very few companies can make that strong claim. Meanwhile, the
month (or maybe six weeks) between this report and the publishing of the PEA is the window
we have to buy before DSV gets on it own marketing trail, so those of you looking to trade in
and out will have an audience, too. So, a strategy for the investors and for the flippers, IKN has
you all covered with this trade.
However, the bottom line today is simple: Discovery
Silver (DSV.v) knocked it out the park last week with
its resource update and for some reason, the market
missed the news. I am a buyer of Discovery Silver
(DSV.v) in the days to come and as from next
weekend, it will form part of the IKN Weekly
Stocks to Follow list. With no formal price target,
the trade will depend more on timing and perhaps,
medium-term moves in the price of silver. Take
advantage of sleeper stock prices, they won’t last.
Stocks to Follow
We had 12 out of 15 winners, with just two losing stocks on the week (MAI.v, QCCU.v) and one
unchanged (RYR.v) and normally, that type of week-on-week result would have pleased me
greatly and filled the back pocket. However, one of those two losers was a big drop in Top Pick
and largest holding Minera Alamos (MAI.v) and that took the shine off the portfolio’s
performance. The other big move was the lift in Aurelius (AUL.v up 38.9%), the stock finally
getting a bit of momentum from a drill NR.
We currently have 15 open positions, our self-imposed limit. Nine of our open stocks are in
positive territory since inception/to the personal cost average, six are in the red and we’re
moving back to a better balance in the portfolio.
14

company Ticker this week Avg Price Reco date Current PPS Gain/Loss% Notes
TOP PICKS
Minera Alamos MAI.v STR BUY C$0.21 13-Oct-19 C$0.53 152.4% $1.14 tgt Aug'20, #1 idea
Rio2 Ltd. RIO.v STR BUY C$0.83 22-Apr-18 C$0.65 -21.7% $1.30 tgt set Jul21, building now
Recommended stocks (In order of preference)
Copper Mountain CMMC.to STR BUY C$3.42 18-Jun-21 C$3.81 11.4% Top value Cu play, overweight
Argonaut Gold AR.to STR BUY C$2.95 25-Jun-21 C$3.26 10.5% Very cheap on Magino promise
Trilogy Metals TMQ STR BUY U$1.84 15-Sep-19 U$2.20 19.6% Cu for 2021, going well
QC Copper &Gold QCCU.v STR BUY C$0.26 25-Apr-21 C$0.36 38.5% already a double. Easy hold
Strategic Metals SMD.v BUY C$0.42 31-Jan-21 C$0.33 -21.4% Land value playt
Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v May sell C$0.68 16-May-21 C$0.65 -4.4% Swap for JOSE.v?
Altiplano Metals QCCU.v BUY C$0.31 17-Sep-21 C$0.325 4.8% Cheap entry, about to re-rate
Royal Road Min. RYR.v BUY C$0.155 17-Mar-19 C$0.28 80.6% Model paying off in Nica
Great Bear Res GBR.v BUY C$15.83 26-Aug-20 C$16.34 3.2% Binary M&A trade, wait for print
Aurelius Min. AUL.v Hold C$0.75 28-Jun-20 C$0.375 -50.0% At last, a pulse
Minera IRL MIRL.cse hold C$0.195 22-Jul-12 C$0.095 -51.2% CEO change will move stock
Long-term non-mining hold
Mene Inc. MENE.v LT Hold C$0.68 6-Dec-20 C$0.90 47.1% LT bet, added again July'21
Closed in 2021 closed close price
Fiore Gold F.v jan'21 C$0.98 21-May-20 C$1.17 19.4% closed as part of rebalance
Norsemont Mining NOM.cse feb'21 C$1.55 6-Set-20 C$0.70 -54.8% Cut loser to reduce Au exp.
Element 29 Res ECU.v feb'21 C$0.49 7-Feb-21 C$0.54 10.2% Cut Peru exposure
Kuya Silver KUYA.cse feb'21 C$1.66 8-Nov-20 C$2.51 51.2% Cut Peru exposure
Pucara Gold TORO.v apr'21 C$0.65 4-Oct-20 C$0.26 -60.0% Cut loser, Peru risk call
Copper Mountain CMMC.to apr'21 C$1.40 22-Nov-20 C$4.18 198.6% tgt hit, profit taken
New Gold NGD may'21 U$0.76 9-Feb-20 U$2.14 181.6% Sold to buy AGC, nice win
Orezone Gold ORE.v jun'21 C$0.79 21-Jun-20 C$1.61 103.8% sold on pop, leaky boat
Wolfden Res. WLF.v sep'21 C$0.30 11-Apr-21 C$0.19 -36.7% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Cartier Resources ECR.v sep'21 C$0.32 21-Mar-21 C$0.235 -26.6% Failed spec trade, cut loss
Amarillo Gold AGC.v sep'21 C$0.31 30-May-21 C$0.30 -3.2% Capex story changed: Out
Excelsior Mining MIN.to oct'21 C$0.93 10-Mar-19 C$0.53 -43.0% May return in 2022
2015 to 2020 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Now for notes on some of our covered stocks:
Argonaut Gold (AR.to): No news, aside from confirmation that we get the 3q21 filings from
AR on November 15th (I’ll be holding through earnings on that one, no doubts) but if we dial up
a two month chart of my best gold producer idea (until MAI.v goes commercial, of course)…
15

…we see that the concerns I published at the beginning of October in a couple of issues have
disappeared. For the first days of October, AR went through an unusually weak trading patch
but as seen above, the stock has played catch-up well. That leaves us waiting for the out-
performance predicted by these pages, the Q3 numbers should give us our next catalyst
because at some point, Mr. Market will see how this company is “doing a Wesdome”.
Minera Alamos (MAI.v): It was a good week for the portfolio, but not so great for my own
back pocket due to the heavy drop experienced by Top Pick and personal largest position,
Minera Alamos (MAI.v). On the week, GDX went up 1.45%, GDXJ by 1.95% and GLD by
1.48%, then 12 out of our Stocks to Follow were winners and only two lost ground, so the
10.2% loss on this large position, mainly due to two days of heavy selling on Wednesday and
Friday) sticks out like a sore thumb.
I said as much to MAI President Doug Ramshaw on Saturday morning and he agreed. We then
had an off-record conversation that made it clear the issue has nothing to do with the good
standing and development of Santana, or anything else at the company for that matter. This is
a “share related issue”, wholly based on the trading of MAI paper in the market and, as such, I
am unconcerned about its effects on the stock price. They will be temporary, and I am
confident President Ramshaw has identified the issue and can take action. And that, ladies and
gents, is a long-winded and slightly cryptic way of saying “buy this dip”. There’s nothing wrong
at the company, somebody somewhere is playing silly devils with the share price, but that can
only be temporary (and with Ramshaw now on the case, I have a feeling it will resolve sooner
rather than later).
Strategic Metals (SMD.v): Company head honcho Doug Eaton continue to buy shares of his
own company on the open market, his addition last week means he has added around 1.4m
shares in 2021, his personal holding now 2.78m shares. Eaton is buying these shares the way
people onto a dead cert buy their shares and the market jungle drums now has the Boden zinc
mine project becoming a public spin-off in 2022. Eaton considers this high-grade base metals
project a world class and SMD owns a lot of the currently private company.
Altiplano Metals (APN.v): This stock did better than its measly 0.5c gain would suggest, with
buyers coming in on some volume. And there’s good reason for the interest, as on October 14th
APN delivered drill results from Farellon which go a long way in justifying this desk’s optimism
on the stock. The results of the vein delineating program were just about optimum, with all
holes hitting the right mineralization at the right depth and indicating the strength of the
Farellon system along strike. The company stated in the NR that they’d be able to move up to
the planned 5,000td throughput rate on Farellon on the back of these results, so as long as
grade doesn’t disappoint once official assays are back for all holes (and if the confident way
company management were speaking is a guide, we should also be confident of good grades)
Aurelius Minerals (AUL.v): Aurelius (AUL.v) finally showed a pulse, moving up sharply on the
back of assay results (5) that, it must be said, are similar to the good results seen in other NRs
from the company but for some reason, this time they got more traction. The headline talked of
“131.5 g/t Au over 0.6 metres, 26.7 g/t Au over 0.95 metres, 26.4 g/t Au over 0.7 metres and
25.4 g/t Au over 0.7 metres” in the same type of skinny hits along the sweet spot of the
geological saddle formation the company is looking to exploit, those are rich veins and once you
understand the nature of what they are drilling, even 0.7m becomes mineable widths as long as
the assumptions about long strike length come true. Another Mark, AUL CEO Ashcroft, gave his
comments:
"Drill results have exceeded our initial expectations and continue to demonstrate the high-grade
and continuous nature of the Aureus East Gold project. Utilizing the Aurelius approach, we
continue to expand the mineralization and refine the geological model, while drilling previously
underexplored areas, as we consistently encounter high grade intersections within a broadly
mineralized and substantial gold system. We are very pleased with these results and remain on
track to produce a current mineral resource in Q1 2022."
The NR also provided a work timeline and an ETA for the initial resource for Aureus East, now
16

set for 1q21. That provides something of a quandry, as the stock has been a serious
percentage loser and on the potential sales list for some weeks. The choice boils down to 1)
hold an extra quarter for the main catalyst in AUL'S first year (now a bit delayed), od 2) use the
renewed interest in the stock as an exit door. Finally, the next day AUL announced its annual
incentive options awards and that’s good optics; it would have been easy for them to award 25c
papers a week ago and feel rich today, instead AUL and
CEO Ashcroft does things the right way and I hope their
papers make them rich.
As for the hold/sell decision, it took about three minutes
of thought to decide to hold thru until 1q21: For one
thing, the position isn't the biggest personally and the
percentage loss hurts the ego more than finances. For
another, the original plan was to hold to the MRE and
last week allows space to do just that. However, the
sober view is best and this 12 month chart is a good
way of remembering how bad this trade has been to
date. I’ve seen them come back from worse than that (which is why I continue to hold),
but….ugh.
Copper Mountain (CMMC.to): CMMC changed head rockbangers last week, appointing a
new SVP Geology to replace their retiring VP Exploration. The new guy Patrick Redmond comes
with an impressive CV (e.g. plenty of time at Teck) and is a signal the company is getting
serious about its generative exploration upside, both at/around Copper Mountain in BC and at
its Australia projects. The share price did well last week, beating the market averages and out-
performing copper peers as the copper spot price did its wild gyrations. Finally, trader please
note that with CMMC reporting on November 1st, you have until Friday to be positioned and as
CMMC is one of the stocks used by Canada to trade Cu news, more volatility wouldn’t surprise
much through earnings. As for The IKN Weekly, you can expect a full examination of numbers
the following weekend, IKN650 (I think).
QC Copper & Gold (QCCU.v): I Zoomed* with CEO Stewart on Friday morning and was more
upset about the price action than I was (that is good). The main news is that the financing is
filled, including the over-allotment facilities and QCCU will close on gross proceeds of C$6.9m or
so around Wednesday this week (though don’t shoot me if it’s a day earlier or later, this is
mining mixed with lawyers). He also outlined the 6,000m drill program now coming up and by
making reasonable conservative estimates for lab turnaround times, that means we start
getting news flow as 2021 becomes 2022. All good, all on track and we spoke a little about the
promotion of James Sykes to the board of directors.
These pages identified the likelihood of profit-taking as QCCU held above 40c after the
financing was announced, but since then QCCU has had a heavier “fiesta hangover” than most
in its position. It’s worth reflecting, flow-through tax advantages or not, how easily QCCU has
sold $6.9m of 60c paper to larger insto desks, while Thursday the open market had trouble
giving retail paper at 35c. Frictionless markets, oh yeah.
*WhatApp video call, in fact. Same thing.
The Copper Basket
After forty-two weeks of 2021, The Copper Basket shows a gain of 32.95% to level stakes:
17

company ticker price 1/1/21 Shares out Market Cap current pps gain/loss%
1 Solaris Res SLS.to 6.08 107.53 1414.02 13.15 116.3%
2 Copper Mtn CMMC.to 1.81 207.5 790.58 3.81 110.5%
3 Oroco Res OCO.v 1.85 186.96 529.10 2.83 53.0%
4 Marimaca Cop MARI.to 3.25 87.737 386.04 4.40 35.4%
5 Western Copper WRN.to 1.57 135.798 281.10 2.07 31.8%
6 Amerigo Res ARG.to 0.80 181.79 254.51 1.40 75.0%
7 Excelsior Min. MIN.to 1.12 273.585 132.69 0.485 -56.7%
8 Regulus Res. REG.v 1.07 101.85 105.92 1.04 -2.8%
9 C3 Metals CCCM.v 0.115 438.56 87.71 0.20 73.9%
10 Aldebaran Res. ALDE.v 0.455 125.24 81.41 0.65 42.9%
11 Element 29 Res ECU.v 0.45 68.281 47.80 0.70 55.6%
12 Doré Copper DCMC.v 1.00 53.304 43.71 0.82 -18.0%
13 Chakana Cop PERU.v 0.60 111.41 38.99 0.35 -41.7%
14 Chibougamau CBG.v 0.165 53.077 11.68 0.22 33.3%
15 US Copper USCU.v 0.105 87.53 7.88 0.09 -14.3%
NB: All stocks in CAD$ Portfolio avg 32.95%
There are plenty of subjects to touch upon after one volatile week for the copper market, so
let’s get the bean counting out the way first
and note a negative split of six winners
60% The Copper Basket 2021, weekly evolution
(CMMC.to, MARI.to, REG.v, PERU.v, ALDE.v, 55%
50%
ECU.v) and nine losers (SLS.to, OCO.v,
45%
MIN.to, WRN.to, ARG.to, CCCM.v, DCMC.v, 40%
35%
USCU.v, CBG.v). However most moves
30%
weren’t so big and the market had calmed 25%
somewhat come Friday. As for big moves, 20%
15%
there was one to the upside (ECU.v up 10%
20.7%) and one to the downside (USCU.v 5%
0%
down 28.0%) and roughly cancelled each
other out.
The LME became the centre of the metals
world as one trader took a dominant position in copper futures, with 90% of contracts under its
control. Widely assumed to be Trafigura (or at least led by Trafi), the LME authorities decided
to step in when copper continued to shoot higher (causing the exact pain to short positions we
mused over last weekend…poor things).
Speculative pressure intense, the LME Special Committee stepped in and, in the space of the
week, the main battlefield December contracts went from U$4.50/lb to U$4.80/lb and back
again. The trade wires covered most of the story post-factum but for your curated comment
this week, Friday brought a Tour de Force from Andy Home of Reuters. Starting with copper’s
18
ts1
naJ
t01naJ ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7bef ht41 ts12 ht82 ht7ram ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4rpa ht11 ht81 ht52 n2yam ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6nuj ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4luj ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1gua ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5pes ht21 ht91 ht62 dr3tco ht01 ht71 ht42
source: IKN calcs

price volatility and speculation, he opened to a concise history of regulatory control at The LME,
along with key moments and what it all means for today. You guys out there know I’ve had a
mancrush fandom for Mr. Home for years, but this time I’m going to press you to use the link
(6) below and read the whole article. Here’s just one snippet:
Trouble with copper
It’s clear from both LME and Trafigura statements that the two have been in regulatory
dialogue about the trader’s copper positions and its draw on exchange stocks.
Trafigura appears to satisfied LME compliance officers that it has a legitimate reason
for buying so much copper from what is supposed to be the market of last resort.
Cynics will scoff at the company’s quoted claim the metal is needed to satisfy customer
needs in China and Asia, but global exchange stocks of copper were just 312,200
tonnes at the end of September with Shanghai stocks sitting at a multi-year low of
43,500 tonnes.
Compare and contrast with the early 1990s copper market, when the LME warehouse
system – much more geographically concentrated than it is now – held more than
600,000 tonnes at one stage. Indeed, the ballooning costs of supporting the copper
price in a surplus market were what did for Sumitomo’s Hamanaka in the end.
If that sort of surplus is available today, why has it not shown up?
Backwardation is supposed to attract metal but this week’s deliveries into LME
warehouses have so far amounted to a meagre 9,775 tonnes despite the biggest
incentive in the market’s history.
The unwelcome possibility is that the world has run out of freely available copper. Or, if
there is metal out there, it is stranded by record high freight rates, another covid-19
variant on copper crises past.
Strong agreement here and, as a veteran “Home Watcher”, would venture to say that’s as non-
neutral on the subject of the near-term copper prices as I’ve read him. I’ve chosen that passage
because it contains the key comment of them all, that Trafi did satisfy the authorities. Note that
it doesn’t matter much whether “critics scoff”, neither that Trafi was obviously making the most
of its speculative position and squeezing the shorts as hard as it could. By applying Ocam’s
Razor, we see the bullish message by noting the basic fact: We know Trafi took 90%+ of the
LME copper contract positions. For sure it might want copper higher for ulterior motives, but we
know that when challenged, it could provide evidence to authorities that at least some of the
copper procured was required to fulfil Asia end-user contracts. No matter that it couldn’t cover
all the numbers because we know it had some, certainly enough to convince the LME Special
Committee because it kept its dominant position. So consider that, ladies and gents. One of the
biggest metals traders in the world is having issues in covering end-user deliveries in China this
quarter, as a result it went to market to secure forward contracts. Those are facts, no matter if
Trafi’s real liability is 1,000 or 100,000 metric tonnes. Now for the weekly update on world
copper inventory levels, with data from Chile’s Cochilco:
 The market attention intensified over world copper stocks last week, with LME acting to
calm the markets and new clue about the real tightness of copper supply on the
Chinese mainland coming to light. The three official systems lost 22,055metric tonnes
(mt) of copper to close the week at 252,214mt and once again, the three continents
covered by the three houses point in the same direction.
 And another new low for Shanghai SHFE, down a more modest 1,829mt to close the
week at 39,839mt. There’s not much more inventory that can leave these warehouses,
consider SHFE dry of copper.
 Last week’s trade paper headlines about the LME copper pit became international
business headlines, the LME steering committee stepped in, and the speculation in
copper was nipped in the bud. However, data once again shows fundament to the bull
position, LME losing another 19,850mt from stores to close Friday at 161,550mt.
Meanwhile the key cancelled warrant number dropped, but not by much and to
139,700mt. With the LME supposedly cracking down on trading excesses, we now see
just how much of that copper gets physically transported out.
 The Comex joined the party, down a small 376 metric tonnes to close at 50,825mt.
19

Here’s the Shanghai-only inventories chart, as it plumbs new record lows:
Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks, 2014 to date
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
20
31'13ceD ht9 ht81 ht72 ht5tco ht41 dn22 dr3yam ht21 ht02 ht92 ht7bef ht71 ht62 ht4peS ht31 ht92 ht9 ht81 ht72 ht5von ht41 ht52 ht01 ht91 ht82 ht6naJ ht71 ht62 ht4gua ht31 dn22 202ts1ram ht01 ht91 ht72 0202ht6ced ht41 ht52 1202ht4luj ht21
Mt Cu
|
source: Cochilco
MT Cu SHFE copper inventory levels, 2021
300000
280000
260000
240000
220000
200000
180000
160000
140000
120000
100000 2021
80000 2020
60000 2019
40000
2018
20000
0
171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940414243
source: Cochilco data
The lows roll in and with LME stocks now being sucked away to real-world end users by traders
as large as Trafi, the trend doesn’t look like stopping. Merely slowing, as we are near the point
where stocks are technical in nature only and in the true market, those same warehouses have
nothing available for sale and are turning away customers on a daily basis. At this point last
weekend our notes finished with, “My best guess is there’s a short squeeze brewing around the
December copper contracts, but that’s just me.” That was borne out by events, but the end of
the speculative mini-bubble (of Trafi’s making) doesn’t mean the end of the copper bull run. Far
from it, that speculation is a reflection of where the market sees spot copper in the near future
and fundies continue to support its bullish run.
Bottom line: Same as last week, Goldman Sachs was right and it’s best to stop fighting that
fact. Copper is going higher. Now for notes on a couple of basket stocks starting with last
week’s star turn ECU:
Element 29 Resources (ECU.v): In this section of IKN644 dated September 26th we ran a
small heads-up on ECU.v and noted the company had been off-radar since the unexpected
retirement of Brian Booth in August, the same NR announcing the start of its 4,000m initial drill
program at Elida in Peru. A quick reminder of The Copper Basket of four editions ago:
“…we are now entering the period in which ECU may report its first results from the
Elida exploration program. Obviously risky and still very much a drill play, Elida is a
grassroots generated target and offers more potential than anything C3 Metals can
buy off Hochschild.”
Sure enough first assays came back last week and the timing was good, into a hot market for
copper stories. Timed with ECU’s booked appearances on conference webinar slots, Monday
October 18th saw the company’s first two holes from the current six hole program at Elida,
here’s the headline (7): “Element 29 Drills 383.75 Metres Of 0.71% CuEq at the Elida Copper

Project”. The NR came with a nice little bonus, this short YouTube
(8) with ECU Chair Richard Osman explaining the results and why
the company feels them to be significant. In fact both holes were
worthy headliners (and there’s little between them), so here are
both:
 ELID019: 383.75m at 0.54% Cu, 0.035% Mo, 4.2 g/t Ag
for 0.71% CuEq
 ELID020: 308m at 0.43% Cu, 0.028% Mo, 3.9g/t Ag for
0.56% CuEq
There are plenty of visuals provided with the ECU NR and I
encourage you to consider them all on the link above, here’s the
section for Hole 20, possibly the more interesting one as it was
planned to test continuation and did so. ECU also made a point of
mentioning the low sulphur content in mineralization found to
date, as high levels of deleterious elements are common in Cu
projects in Northern Peru (Cañariaco, AntaKori) and a good time to
mention that advantage. The share price reacted accordingly, up
Monday on the news and
then with a good reply
Tuesday morning, as
brokerage notes on the
NR made the rounds.
ECU has started well and
this weekend’s 7c share price is fully justified by last
week’s first pass results from Elida. It will take more
real news (and not just newsletter pumpo) to move
this stock further, eyes on future drill assay numbers.
C3 Metals (CCCM.v): The good times will now roll at CCCM, thanks to the bought deal
announced last week that was immediately upsized to $18m (9). And run by Canaccord, of all
people. With this raising, C3 has achieved the objective its backers desired and anything they
get from the structure going forward is a bonus. I console myself with the fact that a small
proportion of the money raised will indeed help the Peruvian local economy and for that, we
should be thankful. ECU.v is a far more attractive proposition than this Vancouver Special.
The Producer Basket
After forty-two weeks of 2021, the Producer Basket shows a loss of 9.17% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/20 Shares out Mkt Cap (U$Bn) current pps gain/loss%
1 Newmont NEM 59.89 805 46.38 57.61 -3.8%
2 Barrick GOLD 22.78 1778.04 34.64 19.48 -14.5%
3 Agnico Eagle AEM 70.51 244.187 13.95 57.13 -19.0%
4 Kirkland Lake KL 41.27 267.056 12.16 45.54 10.3%
5 Kinross Gold KGC 7.34 1261.07 7.97 6.32 -13.9%
6 Endeavour Min EDV.to 29.62 252.568 6.65 31.61 6.7%
7 Pan American PAAS 34.71 210.262 5.47 26.03 -25.0%
8 B2Gold BTG 5.60 1051.697 4.56 4.34 -22.5%
9 Alamos Gold AGI 8.75 392.739 3.14 8.00 -8.6%
10 Pretium Res PVG 11.48 187.833 2.12 11.31 -1.5%
Prices in U$ except EDV.to (share price in CAD$ and mkt cap in approx USD) Port. avg -9.17%
21

Unlike the last two weeks, The Producer Basket saw a mixed bag of four losers (AEM, KL, PVG,
AGI) among the majority six winners (NEM, GOLD, KGC, PAAS, EDV.to, BTG), with the big
move in B2Gold (BTG up 9.9%) the only outlier of our group. The KL/AEM merger hype found
its peak and that duo slightly underperformed peers for the first time since the deal was
announced. Another signal that this one is Full Greek Cheese*.
The 2021 Producer Basket: Percentage difference between
GDX benchmark and basket (negative = IKN basket ahead)
8.0%
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
B2Gold (BTG): The Clive’s machine is a million-plus ounce producer these days, underscored
by the 3q21 production numbers posted on Monday
after the bell of 310,261oz, which includes 14,538oz
from its Calibre ownership and (let’s quote the NR
(10)); “…consolidated gold production of 295,723
ounces from the Company's three operating mines,
above budget by 7%.” So a good quarter from BTG
and they also pre-reported sales of U$511m, as well
as telegraphing operating margins by explaining
later in the NR how much FCF they expect in 2021
total. Here’s how the stock moved Tuesday and it
kept the momentum all week.
A bit of a rebound for BTG in a bad year for the
company, only the troubled silver company PAAS is doing worse on our list.
*Feta Complete
The Tiny Dogs
After forty-two weeks of 2021, the Tiny Dogs show a gain of 0.96% to level stakes:
company ticker price 1/1/21 Shares out Mkt Cap current pps gain/loss%
Antler Gold ANTL.v 0.205 66.365 10.95 0.165 -19.5%
Aston Bay BAY.v 0.045 163.975 7.38 0.045 0.0%
Constantine Met CEM.v 0.17 45.4 13.39 0.295 73.5%
Contact Gold C.v 0.115 240.757 13.24 0.055 -52.2%
Golden Pursuit GDP.v 0.22 40 6.40 0.16 -27.3%
Manitou Gold MTU.v 0.045 230.79 17.31 0.075 66.7%
Precipitate Gold PRG.v 0.240 106.241 11.16 0.105 -56.3%
QC Copper QCCU.v 0.315 105 37.80 0.36 14.3%
Red Pine Expl RPX.v 0.400 95.806 50.78 0.53 32.5%
Warrior Gold WAR.v 0.090 91.818 6.43 0.07 -22.2%
Prices in CAD$, data from TSXV basket avg 0.96%
22
ts1
naJ
t01naJ ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7bef ht41 ts12 ht82 ht7ram ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4rpa ht11 ht81 ht52 n2yam ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6nuj ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4luj ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1gua ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5pes ht21 ht91 ht62 dr3tcO ht01 ht71 ht42
The 2021 Producer Basket: Weekly performance and
20%
comparative to GDX control
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%
source: IKN calcs, NYSE/Nasdaq/TSX data
ts1
naJ
t01naJ ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7bef ht41 ts12 ht82 ht7ram ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4rpa ht11 ht81 ht52 n2yam ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6nuj ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4luj ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1gua ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5pes ht21 ht91 ht62 dr3tcO ht01 ht71 ht42
ikn
gdx control source: Google, IKN Calcs

This section attempts to track the tinycap mining sub-sector of the market, our ten companies
chosen under the following criteria to put together a list representing the state of play in the
sub-sector of tinycap exploration company stocks. At least, that’s the plan.
 Market capitalization of under $20m. They have to be tiny. In two cases I’ve stretched the window a
little and allowed sub-U$20m market capper in that are just over the C$20m level, but the spirit is unaltered.
 A “non broken” stock price and project story. There are literally hundreds of tinycap juniors of the right
size, but it was a particularly depressing exercise to trawl through the whole of the TSXV and find companies
that are small enough, but with life in them. The vast majority of sub-$20m stocks are broken stocks, either
traded to death on the exchange or with projects that are a bust or with entrenched management more
interested in their monthly paycheck than anything else.
 Likelihood of meaningful newsflow in 2020. This connects to the company’s “unbroken” status, as we
want news and potential catalysts from companies with projects that can work.
 Decent management if possible. When you are down among the little guys it doesn’t pay to be too
choosy, but still I preferred companies that have teams or people with good peer reputations.
The basket average remains rattling just above the waterline, four stocks posting week-over-
week gains (GDP.v, MTU.v, PRG.v, WAR.v), three
20% Tiny Dogs, 2021 weekly tracker
staying unchanged (ANTL.v, C.v, RPX.v) and
16%
three losers (BAY.v, CEM.v, QCCU.v). The
12%
biggest move came from Golden Pursuit (GDP.v
8%
up 33.3%) on a burst of volume, so we look at
4%
that company below. As for the other nine and
0%
arguments about QCCU left in the notes above,
-4%
all moves were inside trading ranges and it’s
hard to find any tinycaps moving up on sustained -8%
buying pressure. Or in brute trading terms, if -12%
your tinycap miner cannot provide a catalyst NR
soon, expect it to flat-line into the end of the
year, taking its chances in the tax loss selling
minefield along the way.
Golden Pursuit (GDP.v): Hardly mentioned in the notes this year, GDP popped on its October
19th NR (11), the first we’ve had from the company for
a while, reporting on results of its recent three week
early-stage geology program on its South Gordon Lake
property, part of the package of concessions it owns in
the zone. As much of a “hello we exist” primer NR as
anything, there wasn’t enough in the NR to elicit the
market move we saw.
There’s the air of a financing around GDP and probably
in the near future and on unofficially agreed terms, so
until we get fundies or corporate news from GDP I’m
classing last week as a technical rebound on a chart, no
more. The simple 2021 YTD chart (right) supports my
view and there may be ground to keep this stock in the 2022 list, after all.
NB: Please be clear that The Tiny Dogs is NOT a list of recommended tinycap stocks. It is a list of companies with
market caps of under $20m offering a reasonable representation of the wider tinycaps market. It’s possible in the future
I may buy shares in one or several of these stocks, at the moment both my opinion and wallet are strictly neutral.
Regional politics
Peru’s political dance continues
The next chapter in Peru’s bizarre mondo 221 happens tomorrow Monday October 25th, when
new Prime Minister (PCM) Mirtha Vasquez goes to Peru’s Congress to seek approval for her new
cabinet of ministers, in the same protocol as the Bellido cabinet that came before hers and was
23
ts1
naJ
t01naJ ht71 ht42 ts13 ht7bef ht41 ts12 ht82 ht7ram ht41 ts12 ht82 ht4rpa ht11 ht81 ht52 n2yam ht9 ht61 dr32 ht03 ht6nuj ht31 ht02 ht72 ht4luj ht11 ht81 ht52 ts1gua ht8 ht51 dn22 ht92 ht5pes ht21 ht91 ht62 dr3tcO ht01 ht71 ht42
source: IKN calcs, TSX data

liquidated when Bellido “was resigned” by President Castillo. Vasquez will likely get the
approval, but we’ll also see the strange spectacle of the President’s own Perú Libre party
members voting against this cabinet and accusing the President of “selling out to neoliberalism”
and other such phrases.
Without entering into detail, the last two weeks have also seen other political moves that, in
theory at least, make it easier for Congress to impeach and throw out President Castillo. The
view among Lima’s ruling classes is that the Left wing government of Castillo is still unwelcome,
but his wings have now been duly clipped and the impression on the streets is Ollanta Parte
Dos, i.e. following Ollanta Humala as a President who looked lefty and scary at first, but
effectively did little and changed nothing.
Nicaragua’s Presidential election
A word on Nicaragua’s upcoming Presidential election, as the November 7th vote is as far from a
free and fair democratic vote as you’ll could imagine. Not only has Nica Prez Daniel Ortega
already arrested most of his political opponents, but last week he took to the arbitrary arrest
and 90 day detention of two prominent business figures (and opposition to him) under charges
of “money laundering” (12).
Daniel Ortega is about to turn 75 years old, he’s also about to win his next five year mandate
and stay in power in Nicaragua in a wholly false and crooked election in order to keep his hard
Left wing policies in power. That may affect the optics of mining companies working the
country, in the near-term at least. Your author has some exposure to Nica via Royal Road
(RYR.v) and that’s not going to change, however the next month or so may be noisy for miners
working the country.
Argentina at China Mining 2021
As well as the sparsely-attended New Orleans Investment Conference and a mediocre Mines &
Money line-up (I may have online conference fatigue), last week also saw the big trade fair
“China Mining Convention and Exhibition 2021” in Tianjuan, China. South American countries
made the trip and three were sponsor countries (big stands, cocktail events etc) namely Chile,
Peru and Argentina and of those three, Argentina is the one that took the event most seriously
of all and sent its Mining Secretary, Alberto Hensel, to pitch for the team. Here’s an extract
from his speech to dignitaries, which will leave (13) in little doubt as to his intents:
“We count on the mineral that the world will demand strongly in the next few years, especially
lithium and copper. In the case of lithium, we form part of the lithium triangle that ha 67% of the
world’ lithium reserves. As for copper, Argentina ha one of the best copper supply pipelines in the
world and this obviously puts us in a privileged position in relation to metal demand, including the
electro-mobility sector, energy transport, the production of green/clean energy, the cut in
greenhouse gas use and carbonization of the economy and, of course, the contribution it make
sin thr fight against global warming that today is a great challenge for humanity.”
Shorter version: Buy Argentina domiciled copper stocks before China buys them all.
Chile: Election voter intention update
This weekend marks the end of the Debating period of the 2021 election campaign and the
start of TV and promotional campaigns (Chile’s election laws also mean no political ads before
October 22nd) and the hard right wing candidate José Antonio Kast of the Partido Republicano
will be happy about that. He did not fare well in the live TV debates and Chileans called him out
as the clear loser in last weekend’s final clash, but his well-financed campaign will fell on firmer
ground during the active campaigning period. He’s still polling in second place, (14) meanwhile
frontrunner and favourite for the big job, Gabriel Boric of the left wing Frente Amplio, has
maintained his lead and is now assumed as one of the two who will make the second round
run-off.
As for the centre-left Bachelet dauphine, Yasna Provoste, her third place position is beginning
to look solid against the Fast-dropping government candidate Sebastián Sichel and there’s a
new trend of lukewarm support for Provoste among normally right-wing voters. The decline and
24

fall of Sebasatian Piñera’s candidate under the weight of Pandora Papers scandals (and heavy-
handed riot controls in the South of the country) has been of most benefit to the other obvious
righty in the field, but the hard right view of Kast aren’t to every Chilean’s taste (it may shock
you to learn most right wingers are not Pinochet diehards) so their attention has shifted toward
Provoste, considered “least worst” compared to the clear left wing policies of Boric. Polls show
Kast as a clear underdog against Boric in the Round Two run-off scenarios, but Provoste would
have more chance in the run-off and would therefore stop the rampant Commies from taking
control (or so the theory goes). Tactical voting may become an active ingredient in this year’s
election, we’ll know in less than a month if Provoste can beat Kast to the coveted second spot
but as things stand today, Chile is heading for a run-off between the ideological political Left
and Right wings of politics.
Sell Ecuador redux
The equivalent of the NYT, The Times or Le Monde, El Pais is the Spanish language’s unofficial
world newspaper of record. Its feature note on the troubles faced by Ecuador’s President,
Guillermo Lasso, dated Friday (15) made many of the same points seen in week’s note here at
The IKN Weekly but also gets up to date with the news Thursday that Lasso has been officially
indicted, with charges brought against him by Yaku Perez (political adversary, ecologist and
sharp lawyer).
However, the main political news last week was Lasso’s decision to declare a State of
Emergency, ostensibly to allow the armed forces to join police in patrolling streets in major
cities that are being overrun by drugs gangs. For sure there’s a serious problem with crime in
Ecuador as we highlighted last week around the prison riots, but the declaration also comes as
a “coincidental” help, stopping protests from forming around the Pandora Papers revelations.
Lasso also made a heavy-handed political move last week, threatening Congress with
dissolution and calling new elections (the so-called “muerte cruzada” that would take too long
in a mining letter to explain, mail if you want details). All in all, Lasso’s in a tight spot and this
weekend Ecuador woke up to more drug gang prison violence, despite the State of Emergency,
when seven inmates were found hanged in the same prison that saw over 120 deaths in the
first riots.
This weekend Lasso is an isolated figure, having burned most bridges by accusing
Correa/Iza/Nebot of their pan-political “triple conspiracy” and having to maintain order by
putting soldiers on the streets. That can only be a temporary measure and once the current
curfews are lifted, social protests against Lasso are guaranteed.
Market Watching
Tracking the Buy Peru call (final update)
It came too soon and got hit by the August sentiment trough, but our “Buy Peru” call made in
IN634 dated July 18th is now in the money:
Assuming November and December don’t throw any spanners in the works, I’m going to give
25

myself a pass mark on this macro call and move on from its weekly coverage.
Orezone (ORE.v) add another ten percent
Even more than that, in fact. Here’s a chart, below some bullet points and we’re done:
Please note recent soft coverage on ORE:
 In IKN646 two weeks ago, the stock was $1.01 and the note was entitled, “Orezone
(ORE.v): From cheap to compelling”
 In IKN647 last week, the stock was $1.14 and the note was entitled, “Orezone (ORE.v)
adds the first ten percent”
 It’s now IKN648 and Orezone (ORE.v) is a $1.29 stock. I didn’t buy a single share.
It’s the market and sometimes, they get away. You’ve had a real-time example of a great trade
slipping from the hands of its observer, there’s at least hope that the IKN readership did better.
The market offers its participants lessons every day but it’s up to the participant, in this case
myself, to learn from them. For the time being I am a buyer of Discovery Silver (DSV.v) over
this name at its new price deck, but that does not preclude a trade in an Orezone that’s up
28% in two weeks, but still looks fundamentally cheap.
Minera IRL (MIRL.cse): We arrive at the time for action
With the non-appearance of any news from Minera IRL (MIRL.cse) and its internal audit
committee last week, we now arrive at a moment when action may be required. Insiders at
MIRL may want to withhold any report on audit committee results until after the company
publishes its AGM material and, as the AGM has been called for December 14th, MIRL has a
maximum of three weeks to announce the AGM agenda. We aren’t going to let them do that, so
if we don’t get news from MIRL in the next two days it will be the moment for the CS group to
act and we have a powerful card to play, as well.
We have left the ball in MIRL’s court during it internal audit process and that was the right thing
to do, as even if this company is set on covering up its criminal activities, allowing the internal
committee its moment means the directors no longer have any excuses. They cannot plead
ignorance to the way Diego Benavides decided to use the treasury of a public company a his
personal piggy bank and are now part of the complaint if they take no action.
Diego Benavides must be fired, with cause, from this company immediately. Nothing less will
save MIRL from share price destruction and as time is now pressing, the company has the next
two days in which to act independently.
Conclusion
IKN648 is done, we end with a couple of brief bullet points:
26

 Be long copper, be long gold.
 Discovery Silver (DSV.v) will build an eye-popping PEA on the back of it new resource,
so buy shares before they publish.
I thank you in advance for any feedback. Our Top Pick stocks are Minera Alamos (MAI.v) and
Rio2 Ltd (RIO.v). Flash updates will be sent if required by events.
I wish you good trading fortune, ladies and gentlemen.
Best, Mark
Footnotes, appendices, references, disclaimer
(1) https://discoverysilver.com/news/discovery-metals-closes-final-tranche-of-c-25-million-private-placement-and-
initiates-restart-of-operations/
(2) https://discoverysilver.com/news/discovery-reports-1-907-g-t-ageq-over-1.4-m-in-its-first-drill-hole-testing-the-1.2-km-
long-todos-santos-vein-trend-at-cordero/
(3) https://discoverysilver.com/news/discovery-metals-announces-35-million-private-placement-with-15-million-
investment-from-eric-sprott/
(4) https://discoverysilver.com/site/assets/files/5120/dsv_corp_deck_-_oct_2021_v3.pdf
(5) https://aureliusminerals.com/news/aurelius-intersects-high-grade-gold-at-aureus-east-drills-131.5-g-t-au-over-0.6-
metres-26.7-g-t-au-over-0.95-metres-26.4-g-t-au/
(6) https://www.mining.com/web/london-metal-exchange-has-to-restrain-disorderly-copper/
(7) https://www.e29copper.com/news/element-29-drills-38375-metres-of-71-cueq--at-the-elida-copper-project
(8) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cw8SanSg9Vg
(9) https://www.c3metals.com/c3-metals-announces-upsize-of-bought-deal-private-placement/
(10) https://www.b2gold.com/news/b2gold-corp-reports-continued-strong-total-gold-production-for-q3-2021-of-310261-
oz--7-above-budget-and-18-higher-than-q3-2020-annual-production-guidance-range-increased-to-1015000-to-1055000-
oz
(11) https://www.goldpursuit.ca/golden-pursuit-completes-program-in-preparation-for-winter-drilling-at-gordon-lake-
northwest-territories/
(12) https://www.elinformador.com.co/index.php/general/163-internacional/264979-arrestan-a-opositores-y-lideres-
empresariales-en-nicaragua-a-pocos-dias-de-elecciones
(13) https://www.argentina.gob.ar/noticias/secretaria-de-mineria-presente-en-china-mining-2021
(14) https://www.france24.com/es/minuto-a-minuto/20211021-chile-presa-de-turbulencias-sociales-a-un-mes-de-las-
elecciones-presidenciales
(15) https://elpais.com/internacional/2021-10-23/los-problemas-asedian-al-presidente-lasso-en-ecuador.html
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2020
Closed in 2020 closed close price
TMAC Resources TMR.to Jan'20 C$3.41 20-Dec-19 C$3.61 5.9% TLS flip play, sold new year
Regulus Res REG.v Jan'20 C$1.10 20-Dec-19 C$1.30 18.2% TLS flip play, profit taken
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jan'20 C$1.90 9-Dec-19 C$1.66 -12.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
McEwen Mining MUX Jan'20 U$1.12 2-Dec-19 U$1.18 5.4% TLS flip play, profit taken
Core Gold CGLD.v Jan'20 C$0.255 7-Apr-19 C$0.305 19.6% arb trade, profit taken
HudBay Min HBM Jan'20 U$3.56 9-Dec-19 U$3.36 -5.6% TLS flip play, loss taken
Midas Gold MAX.to Feb'20 C$0.71 5-Jan-20 C$0.57 -19.7% sm & silly trade
Warrior Gold WAR.v Feb'20 C$0.08 3-Aug-18 C$0.05 -31.3% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Contact Gold C.v Feb'20 C$0.40 19-Aug-18 C$0.18 -55.0% clean out non-perf sm stocks
Sandstorm Gold SAND Feb'20 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$7.21 93.3% Sold during port rebalance
NexGen Energy NXE Feb'20 U$1.20 2-Dec-19 U$1.06 -11.7% TLS flip play, loss taken
MAG Silver MAG Apr'20 U$8.95 1-Mar-20 U$10.07 12.5% Sold to cut silver exposure
Alexco Res AXU Apr'20 U$1.69 7-Sep-17 U$1.69 0.0% sold to close Ag exp. in FY20
Bonterra Res BTR.v Jun'20 C$1.62 2-Feb-20 C$1.10 -32.1% under-performer cash moved
Regulus Res REG.v Jun'20 C$0.64 6-Apr-15 C$0.79 23.4% moved $ TMQ/MIN & Au stocks
Great Panther GPR.to Aug'20 C$0.60 21-Jun-20 C$1.10 83.3% Profit taken, good trade
Jaguar Mining JAG.v Aug'20 C$0.42 21-Jun-20 C$0.65 54.8% Profit taken, good trade
Sandstorm Gold SAND Aug'20 U$7.76 10-May-20 U$9.37 20.7% Profit taken, good trade
Integra Resources ITR.v Aug'20 C$2.23 13-Aug-18 C$5.40 142.2% Profit taken, good trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Aug'20 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$14.82 525.3% last 1/2 of big win closed
INV Metals INV.to Sep'20 C$0.40 17-May-20 C$0.45 12.5% Cut all Ecuador exposure
Cartier Resources ECR.v Nov'20 C$0.155 3-Aug-18 C$0.25 67.7% Exact close price TBA
Tinka Res TK.v Dec'20 C$0.195 19-Apr-16 C$0.195 0.0% Closed on a round trip fail
2015 to 2019 annual closed positions in appendices below, 2009 to 2014 closed positions in editions IKN553 or earlier
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2019
Closed in 2019 closed close price
Atico Mining ATY.v jan'19 C$0.55 24-Jul-16 C$0.32 41.8% patience ran out, made room
Candente Copper DNT.to jan'19 C$0.075 3-Ago-18 C$0.05 -33.3% tiny trade, made room for new
B2Gold BTO.to feb'19 C$2.11 12-Set-14 C$4.05 91.9% Took 1/2 profits, reduce size
Western Copper WRN.to mar'19 C$0.80 20-Ene-19 C$0.81 1.3% Spec trade that didn't work
B2Gold BTO.to mar'19 C$2.11 12-Set-14 C$4.15 96.7% Took rest of profit.
GT Gold GTT.v mar'19 C$1.17 10-Oct-18 C$0.90 -23.1% Took loss. Story changed
NovaGold NG apr'19 U$3.84 13-Ene-19 U$4.15 -8.1% Short that didn't work, sm loss
Zinc One Z.v jun'19 C$0.47 14-Set-17 C$0.025 -94.7% clearing out dead trade
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jun'19 C$0.24 22-Ago-18 C$0.20 -16.7% clearing out dead trade
New Gold NGD aug'19 U$1.44 31-Jul-19 U$1.23 14.6% ST short win thru Q2 earnings
IMPACT Silver IPT.v aug'19 C$0.39 21-Jul-19 C$0.46 18.0% took a quick profit
Fiore Gold F.v aug'19 C$0.34 26-May-19 C$0.56 64.7% Took profit, 2q19 avg
Chakana Copper PERU.v oct'19 C$0.84 22-Mar-18 C$0.16 -81.0% Exploreco trade fail. Want space
Wesdome Gold WDO.to oct'19 C$2.37 14-Oct-17 C$7.57 219.4% Sold half, profit taking
Superior Gold SGI.v oct'19 C$1.46 8-Abr-18 C$0.47 -67.8% Failed sm spec on Au. Moved on
Amerigo Res ARG.to nov'19 C$0.91 23-Set-18 C$0.50 -45.1% worst trade of year, hefty loss
Guyana Goldfields GUY.to dec'19 C$0.94 14-Abr-19 C$0.56 -40.4% taking the loss, financials weak
Tethyan Res TETH.v dec'19 C$0.30 8-Set-19 C$0.16 -46.7% tiny trade, word of probs in co
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2018
Closed in 2018 closed close price
Amarillo Gold AGC.v jan'18 C$0.38 24-Mar-17 C$0.31 -18.4% Cut away losing trade
Riverside Res RRI.v jan'18 C$0.39 27-Jun-16 C$0.31 -20.5% Cut away losing trade
Eros Res ERC.v jan'18 C$0.175 1-Mar-17 C$0.16 -8.6% CEO sudden exit, not good
Excellon Res EXN.to jan'18 C$1.54 9-Oct-16 C$1.66 7.8% 4q17 poor, one too many bad qtrs
Wesdome Gold WDO.to jan'18 C$1.68 15-Dec-17 C$2.06 22.6% Near-term trade block, took profit
Sabina G&S SBB.to apr'18 C$2.06 17-Dec-17 C$1.77 -14.1% Near-term trade, bad timing, small
B2Gold BTO.to May'18 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.67 73.9% sold 25% to reduce exposure
Lara Expl. LRA.v May'18 C$0.65 11-Feb-18 C$0.58 -13.8% Spec on Brazil didn't work
Solitario XPL June'18 U$0.72 19-Mar-17 U$0.41 -43.1% Failed trade, may return in 4q18
SolGold plc SOLG.to July'18 C$0.475 19-Nov-17 C$0.415 -12.6% cut, trade didn't perform
Pan American PAAS July'18 U$17.90 1-Jun-18 U$16.30 8.9% modest win on short position
NGEx Res NGQ.to Sep'18 C$1.01 22-Oct-17 C$1.00 -1.0% Closed to reduce Argentina exp
Sandstorm Gold SAND Oct'18 U$3.73 17-Apr-16 U$4.13 10.7% partial sale to raise cash for GTT
Aldebaran Res ALDE.v Nov'18 n/a n/a n/a n/a liquidate spin out of REG
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2017
Closed in 2017 closed close price
Continental Gold CNL.to Jan'17 C$2.68 22-May-16 C$4.17 55.6% trade closed, profit taken
Focus Ventures FCV.v Jan'17 C$0.23 1-Jul-12 C$0.05 -78.3% Give up, a disaster trade
Wesdome Gold WDO.to Feb'17 C$1.72 28-Aug-16 C$3.00 74.4% Target hit, sold, good trade
Belo Sun BSX.to Mar'17 C$0.90 30-Jan-17 C$0.90 0.0% failed near-term flip trade
Lara Expl. LRA.v Mar'17 C$1.15 8-Apr-12 C$1.05 -8.7% cut to make room for new trade
Rye Patch Gold RPM.v Apr'17 C$0.31 2-Sep-16 C$0.32 3.2% cut for doubts & new stock
Cordoba Min. CDB.v Jun'17 C$0.75 15-Sep-16 C$0.63 -16.0% closed
Constantine Metal CEM.v Aug'17 C$0.135 9-Apr-17 C$0.28 107.4% spec trade closed, good win
Red Eagle Min. R.to Sep'17 C$0.67 13-Dec-16 C$0.27 -59.7% IKN's biggest failure in years
Starcore Intl SAM.to Sep'17 C$0.61 10-Jan-15 C$0.31 -49.2% Patience ran out
B2Gold BTO.to Dec'17 C$2.11 12-Sep-14 C$3.39 60.7% sold small portion for liquidity
Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2016
Closed in 2016 closed close price
Phoscan Chem FOS.to jan16 C$0.28 29-mar-15 C$0.265 -5.4% Buyout trade, bot but poor deal
True Gold TGM.v jan16 C$0.18 23-ago-15 C$0.25 38.9% okay trade, sold on pol risk
McEwen Mining MUX jan16 U$1.09 25-ene-15 U$1.20 10.1% sold due to lack of value
Lake Shore Gold LSG.to feb-16 C$1.10 07-abr-15 C$1.69 53.6% bot out, sold early in process
Atacama Pacific ATM.v feb-16 C$0.19 26-abr-15 C$0.40 110.5% sold for a double on big pop
New Gold NGD feb-16 U$2.06 24-ene-16 U$2.96 43.7% closed good near-term trade
Sandspring Res SSP.v mar-16 C$0.195 18-oct-15 C$0.32 64.1% Hit tgt, took profit
Teranga Gold TGZ.to mar-16 C$0.54 15-feb-15 C$0.60 11.1% disappointing trade
B2Gold BTG mar-16 U$0.85 13-ene-16 U$1.30 52.9% Separate trade on B2, hit tgt
Dalradian Res DNA.to mar-16 C$0.67 27-oct-13 C$1.00 49.3% Hit target, sold, good win
HudBay Min. HBM may-16 U$4.10 03-abr-16 U$4.36 -6.3% Short trade, poor timing
Nevada Sunrise NEV.v may-16 C$0.185 28-feb-16 C$0.23 24.3% V. small, no big deal either way
Richmont RIC jun-16 U$7.60 01-may-16 U$9.30 22.4% near-term trade, profit taken
INV Metals INV.to jul-16 C$0.25 03-abr-16 C$0.95 280.0% Trade closed on time
HudBay Min. HBM aug16 U$4.98 09-jun-16 U$4.80 3.6% short trade covered, no big deal
Miranda Gold MAD.v oct-16 C$0.125 03-jul-16 C$0.10 -20.0% tiny spec trade, didn't work
Avino G & S ASM nov-16 U$2.00 21-oct-16 U$1.40 -30.0% Abandon trade on bad bot deal
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Stocks To Follow Closed Positions 2015
Closed in 2015 closed close price
Argonaut Gold AR.to jan'15 C$1.47 14-dec-14 C$2.53 72.1% Big gain small time, profit taken
Amerigo Res ARG.to jan'15 C$0.405 20-jul-14 C$0.285 -29.6% Given up on weak Cu prices
Reservoir Min. RMC.v jan'15 C$6.05 18-jun-14 C$4.12 -31.9% sold on Cu downturn
Coro Mining COP.to jan'15 C$0.075 26-jan-14 C$0.035 -53.3% sm, sold on Cu downturn
Fortuna Silver FSM mar'15 U$4.12 10-nov-14 U$3.75 9.0% Short used as hedge
GoldQuest Min. GQC.v mar'15 C$0.26 27-oct-13 C$0.085 -67.3% given up ghost
Rio Alto Mining RIO.to apr'15 C$2.30 07-apr-11 C$3.57 55.2% Top pick, bot out, big win
Timmins Gold TGD jun'15 U$0.60 19-apr-15 U$0.62 3.3% near-term trade, out of time
First Majestic AG jul'15 U$10.51 10-aug-14 U$4.55 56.7% horrible failed trade
NovaCopper NCQ.to jul'15 C$1.05 09-apr-14 C$0.50 -52.4% no more Cu exposure, sm sell
McEwen Mining MUX aug'15 U$0.695 21-jul-15 U$0.92 32.4% Closed nearterm flip for win
Midas Gold MAX.to sep'15 C$0.39 21-sep-15 C$0.35 -10.3% Sm. trade idea that didn't work
New Gold NGD oct'15 U$2.18 23-aug-15 U$3.05 39.9% trade closed, profit taken
Legend Gold LGN.v nov'15 C$0.085 01-mar-15 C$0.035 -58.8% tiny "land grab" idea, failed
Timmins Gold TGD nov'15 U$0.245 20-sep-15 U$0.15 -38.8% small near-term loser
Please note that due to space considerations closed positions 2009 to 2014 are now
available on request, or were published in any edition to IKN553 (end 2019).
Important Disclosure
The information and opinions contained within this report reflect the personal views of the author and therefore all
material within should not be construed as accurate or reliable or be utilized as advice for investment or business
purposes. Independent due diligence and discussions with ones own investment and business advisor is strongly
recommended. Accordingly, nothing in this report should be construed as offering a guarantee of the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein, as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
security or as an endorsement of any product or service. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to
change without notice. It is prohibited to copy or redistribute this report to any type of third party without the express
permission of the author.
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